A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaojun Kou

Full Text Available It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I, overlapping (O, and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz, based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index. A graphical tool (PRS_Chart was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

Functional traits help to explain half-century long shifts in pollinator distributions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J.; Kissling, W.D.; Carvalheiro, L.G.; WallisDeVries, M.F.; Franzén, M.; Biesmeijer, J.C.

2016-01-01

Changes in climate and land use can have important impacts on biodiversity. Species respond to such environmental modifications by adapting to new conditions or by shifting their geographic distributions towards more suitable areas. The latter might be constrained by species’ functional traits that

The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species.

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Thibaud Rougier

Full Text Available Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa, an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local

Distributional shifts of species in the North Atlantic: the rule or the exception?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Payne, Mark

, and the associated political dispute over fishing rights, has drawn much attention in recent years. However, a closer examination of spatial distributions of pelagic fish in this region suggests that such shifts are not by any means unique: several other examples, both well- and less-well-known, are presented...... to assess the relative importance of each of these mechanisms. Finally, these observations are drawn together to reveal a picture of a dynamic ecosystem in a constant state of flux and to emphasis the necessity...

Animal culture impacts species' capacity to realise climate-driven range shifts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keith, Sally A.; Bull, Joseph William

2017-01-01

Ecological predictions of how species will shift their geographical distributions under climate change generally consider individuals as machines that respond optimally to changing environmental conditions. However, animals frequently make active behavioural decisions based on imperfect information...... about their external environment, potentially mediated by information transmitted through social learning (i.e. culture). Vertical transmission of culture (between generations) might encourage conservative behaviour, constraining the ability of a species to respond, whilst horizontal transmission...... (within generations) can encourage innovation and so facilitate dynamic responses to a changing environment. We believe that the time is right to unite recent advances in ecological modelling and behavioural understanding to explicitly incorporate the influence of animal culture into future predictions...

Nutrient enrichment shifts mangrove height distribution: Implications for coastal woody encroachment.

Science.gov (United States)

Weaver, Carolyn A; Armitage, Anna R

2018-01-01

Global changes, such as increased temperatures and elevated CO2, are driving shifts in plant species distribution and dominance, like woody plant encroachment into grasslands. Local factors within these ecotones can influence the rate of regime shifts. Woody encroachment is occurring worldwide, though there has been limited research within coastal systems, where mangrove (woody shrub/tree) stands are expanding into salt marsh areas. Because coastal systems are exposed to various degrees of nutrient input, we investigated how nutrient enrichment may locally impact mangrove stand expansion and salt marsh displacement over time. We fertilized naturally co-occurring Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) and Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) stands in Port Aransas, TX, an area experiencing mangrove encroachment within the Northern Gulf of Mexico mangrove-marsh ecotone. After four growing seasons (2010-2013) of continuous fertilization, Avicennia was more positively influenced by nutrient enrichment than Spartina. Most notably, fertilized plots had a higher density of taller (> 0.5 m) mangroves and mangrove maximum height was 46% taller than in control plots. Fertilization may promote an increase in mangrove stand expansion within the mangrove-marsh ecotone by shifting Avicennia height distribution. Avicennia individuals, which reach certain species-specific height thresholds, have reduced negative neighbor effects and have higher resilience to freezing temperatures, which may increase mangrove competitive advantage over marsh grass. Therefore, we propose that nutrient enrichment, which augments mangrove height, could act locally as a positive feedback to mangrove encroachment, by reducing mangrove growth suppression factors, thereby accelerating the rates of increased mangrove coverage and subsequent marsh displacement. Areas within the mangrove-marsh ecotone with high anthropogenic nutrient input may be at increased risk of a regime shift from grass to woody

Nutrient enrichment shifts mangrove height distribution: Implications for coastal woody encroachment

Science.gov (United States)

Armitage, Anna R.

2018-01-01

Global changes, such as increased temperatures and elevated CO2, are driving shifts in plant species distribution and dominance, like woody plant encroachment into grasslands. Local factors within these ecotones can influence the rate of regime shifts. Woody encroachment is occurring worldwide, though there has been limited research within coastal systems, where mangrove (woody shrub/tree) stands are expanding into salt marsh areas. Because coastal systems are exposed to various degrees of nutrient input, we investigated how nutrient enrichment may locally impact mangrove stand expansion and salt marsh displacement over time. We fertilized naturally co-occurring Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) and Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) stands in Port Aransas, TX, an area experiencing mangrove encroachment within the Northern Gulf of Mexico mangrove-marsh ecotone. After four growing seasons (2010–2013) of continuous fertilization, Avicennia was more positively influenced by nutrient enrichment than Spartina. Most notably, fertilized plots had a higher density of taller (> 0.5 m) mangroves and mangrove maximum height was 46% taller than in control plots. Fertilization may promote an increase in mangrove stand expansion within the mangrove-marsh ecotone by shifting Avicennia height distribution. Avicennia individuals, which reach certain species-specific height thresholds, have reduced negative neighbor effects and have higher resilience to freezing temperatures, which may increase mangrove competitive advantage over marsh grass. Therefore, we propose that nutrient enrichment, which augments mangrove height, could act locally as a positive feedback to mangrove encroachment, by reducing mangrove growth suppression factors, thereby accelerating the rates of increased mangrove coverage and subsequent marsh displacement. Areas within the mangrove-marsh ecotone with high anthropogenic nutrient input may be at increased risk of a regime shift from grass to woody

Climatic associations of British species distributions show good transferability in time but low predictive accuracy for range change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Rapacciuolo

Full Text Available Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records

Species invasion shifts the importance of predator dependence.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffen, Blaine D; Delaney, David G

2007-12-01

The strength of interference between foraging individuals can influence per capita consumption rates, with important consequences for predator and prey populations and system stability. Here we demonstrate how the replacement of a previously established invader, the predatory crab Carcinus maenas, by the recently invading predatory crab Hemigrapsus sanguineus shifts predation from a species that experiences strong predator interference (strong predator dependence) to one that experiences weak predator interference (weak predator dependence). We demonstrate using field experiments that differences in the strength of predator dependence persist for these species both when they forage on a single focal prey species only (the mussel Mytilus edulis) and when they forage more broadly across the entire prey community. This shift in predator dependence with species replacement may be altering the biomass across trophic levels, consistent with theoretical predictions, as we show that H. sanguineus populations are much larger than C. maenas populations throughout their invaded ranges. Our study highlights that predator dependence may differ among predator species and demonstrates that different predatory impacts of two conspicuous invasive predators may be explained at least in part by different strengths of predator dependence.

Sympatric Dreissena species in the Meuse River : towards a dominance shift from zebra to quagga mussels

OpenAIRE

Marescaux, Jonathan; Boets, Pieter; Lorquet, Julien; Sablon, Rose; Van Doninck, Karine; Beisel, Jean-Nicolas

2015-01-01

The rapid spread of the quagga mussel, Dreissena rostriformis, in Western Europe is of particular concern since the species is known to have serious ecological and economic impacts, similar to those of the well-established zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha. This study aimed (1) to provide an update on the quagga mussel distribution in several Belgian inland waterways, and (2) to check if a shift in dominance between Dreissena species is occurring. Using density measurements and artificial su...

How can model comparison help improving species distribution models?

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Emmanuel Stephan Gritti

Full Text Available Today, more than ever, robust projections of potential species range shifts are needed to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such projections are so far provided almost exclusively by correlative species distribution models (correlative SDMs. However, concerns regarding the reliability of their predictive power are growing and several authors call for the development of process-based SDMs. Still, each of these methods presents strengths and weakness which have to be estimated if they are to be reliably used by decision makers. In this study we compare projections of three different SDMs (STASH, LPJ and PHENOFIT that lie in the continuum between correlative models and process-based models for the current distribution of three major European tree species, Fagussylvatica L., Quercusrobur L. and Pinussylvestris L. We compare the consistency of the model simulations using an innovative comparison map profile method, integrating local and multi-scale comparisons. The three models simulate relatively accurately the current distribution of the three species. The process-based model performs almost as well as the correlative model, although parameters of the former are not fitted to the observed species distributions. According to our simulations, species range limits are triggered, at the European scale, by establishment and survival through processes primarily related to phenology and resistance to abiotic stress rather than to growth efficiency. The accuracy of projections of the hybrid and process-based model could however be improved by integrating a more realistic representation of the species resistance to water stress for instance, advocating for pursuing efforts to understand and formulate explicitly the impact of climatic conditions and variations on these processes.

Species-free species distribution models describe macroecological properties of protected area networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Jason L; Fordyce, James A

2017-01-01

Among the greatest challenges facing the conservation of plants and animal species in protected areas are threats from a rapidly changing climate. An altered climate creates both challenges and opportunities for improving the management of protected areas in networks. Increasingly, quantitative tools like species distribution modeling are used to assess the performance of protected areas and predict potential responses to changing climates for groups of species, within a predictive framework. At larger geographic domains and scales, protected area network units have spatial geoclimatic properties that can be described in the gap analysis typically used to measure or aggregate the geographic distributions of species (stacked species distribution models, or S-SDM). We extend the use of species distribution modeling techniques in order to model the climate envelope (or "footprint") of individual protected areas within a network of protected areas distributed across the 48 conterminous United States and managed by the US National Park System. In our approach we treat each protected area as the geographic range of a hypothetical endemic species, then use MaxEnt and 5 uncorrelated BioClim variables to model the geographic distribution of the climatic envelope associated with each protected area unit (modeling the geographic area of park units as the range of a species). We describe the individual and aggregated climate envelopes predicted by a large network of 163 protected areas and briefly illustrate how macroecological measures of geodiversity can be derived from our analysis of the landscape ecological context of protected areas. To estimate trajectories of change in the temporal distribution of climatic features within a protected area network, we projected the climate envelopes of protected areas in current conditions onto a dataset of predicted future climatic conditions. Our results suggest that the climate envelopes of some parks may be locally unique or have

Hierarchical species distribution models

Science.gov (United States)

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

2016-01-01

Determining the distribution pattern of a species is important to increase scientific knowledge, inform management decisions, and conserve biodiversity. To infer spatial and temporal patterns, species distribution models have been developed for use with many sampling designs and types of data. Recently, it has been shown that count, presence-absence, and presence-only data can be conceptualized as arising from a point process distribution. Therefore, it is important to understand properties of the point process distribution. We examine how the hierarchical species distribution modeling framework has been used to incorporate a wide array of regression and theory-based components while accounting for the data collection process and making use of auxiliary information. The hierarchical modeling framework allows us to demonstrate how several commonly used species distribution models can be derived from the point process distribution, highlight areas of potential overlap between different models, and suggest areas where further research is needed.

Temperature induced changes in size dependent distributions of two boreal and three Lusitanian flatfish species: A comparative study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hal, van R.; Kooten, van T.; Rijnsdorp, A.D.

2016-01-01

Changes in spatial distribution in several fish species have been related to recent increase in global temperature. In the North Sea, both a poleward shift and a shift to deeper water have been observed. Here, we study the underlying mechanism of these shifts in a comparative study of the changes in

Plant-soil interactions in the expansion and native range of a poleward shifting plant species

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grunsven, van R.H.A.; Putten, van der W.H.; Bezemer, T.M.; Berendse, F.; Veenendaal, E.M.

2010-01-01

Climate warming causes range shifts of many species toward higher latitudes and altitudes. However, range shifts of host species do not necessarily proceed at the same rates as those of their enemies and symbionts. Here, we examined how a range shifting plant species performs in soil from its

Plant–soil interactions in the expansion and native range of a poleward shifting plant species

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Grunsven, R.H.A.; Van der Putten, W.H.; Bezemer, T.M.; Berendse, F.; Veenendaal, E.M.

2010-01-01

Climate warming causes range shifts of many species toward higher latitudes and altitudes. However, range shifts of host species do not necessarily proceed at the same rates as those of their enemies and symbionts. Here, we examined how a range shifting plant species performs in soil from its

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolas Casajus

Full Text Available An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Community structure informs species geographic distributions

KAUST Repository

Montesinos-Navarro, Alicia

2018-05-23

Understanding what determines species\\' geographic distributions is crucial for assessing global change threats to biodiversity. Measuring limits on distributions is usually, and necessarily, done with data at large geographic extents and coarse spatial resolution. However, survival of individuals is determined by processes that happen at small spatial scales. The relative abundance of coexisting species (i.e. \\'community structure\\') reflects assembly processes occurring at small scales, and are often available for relatively extensive areas, so could be useful for explaining species distributions. We demonstrate that Bayesian Network Inference (BNI) can overcome several challenges to including community structure into studies of species distributions, despite having been little used to date. We hypothesized that the relative abundance of coexisting species can improve predictions of species distributions. In 1570 assemblages of 68 Mediterranean woody plant species we used BNI to incorporate community structure into Species Distribution Models (SDMs), alongside environmental information. Information on species associations improved SDM predictions of community structure and species distributions moderately, though for some habitat specialists the deviance explained increased by up to 15%. We demonstrate that most species associations (95%) were positive and occurred between species with ecologically similar traits. This suggests that SDM improvement could be because species co-occurrences are a proxy for local ecological processes. Our study shows that Bayesian Networks, when interpreted carefully, can be used to include local conditions into measurements of species\\' large-scale distributions, and this information can improve the predictions of species distributions.

Endemic palm species shed light on habitat shifts and the assembly of the Cerrado and Restinga floras.

Science.gov (United States)

Bacon, Christine D; Moraes R, Monica; Jaramillo, Carlos; Antonelli, Alexandre

2017-05-01

Species expansions into new habitats are often associated with physiological adaptations, for instance when rain forest lineages colonize dry habitats. Although such shifts have been documented for the Brazilian savanna (Cerrado), little is known about the biogeographic origin of species occupying an extreme South American habitat type, the coastal dunes (Restinga). We examined the formation of this poorly known, endangered habitat by reconstructing the evolutionary history of two endemic species. Due to the proposed recency and uniqueness of this habitat, we hypothesized that Restinga species of the palm genus Allagoptera to be recently evolved and to present derived morphological characters. To detect habit shifts in absolute time, we used one plastid and nine nuclear genes to reconstruct the phylogenetic and biogeographic history of Allagoptera. We used light microscopy and stable isotope analysis to explore whether morphological adaptations occurred concomitantly with habitat shifts. Phylogenetic relationships were well supported and we found ancestral lineages of Allagoptera to be widely distributed throughout habitats that are currently occupied by extant species. Over the last ca. 7Ma Allagoptera has shifted its preference to increasingly dry habitats. Coincident with the colonization of the Cerrado and Restinga, morphological adaptations also evolved, including subterranean stems that are fire-resistant and long underground stem and root systems that facilitate water access. We did not find differences in metabolic pathway or modifications to pollen morphology when compared to other palm lineages. Assuming that the evolutionary history of Allagoptera is indicative of the habitat in which it occurs, our results infer a recent origin for Cerrado species. Although little is known about the formation of the Restinga habitat, our results also suggest a longer history than currently proposed; with an origin of Restinga habitats dating back to the Late Pliocene

Training Classifiers under Covariate Shift by Constructing the Maximum Consistent Distribution Subset

OpenAIRE

Yu, Xu; Yu, Miao; Xu, Li-xun; Yang, Jing; Xie, Zhi-qiang

2015-01-01

The assumption that the training and testing samples are drawn from the same distribution is violated under covariate shift setting, and most algorithms for the covariate shift setting try to first estimate distributions and then reweight samples based on the distributions estimated. Due to the difficulty of estimating a correct distribution, previous methods can not get good classification performance. In this paper, we firstly present two types of covariate shift problems. Rather than estim...

Grasshopper species composition shifts following a severe rangeland grasshopper outbreak

Science.gov (United States)

Little is known about how grasshopper species abundances shift during and following severe outbreaks, as sampling efforts usually end when outbreaks subside. Grasshopper densities, species composition and vegetation have infrequently been sampled during and after a severe outbreak in the western U.S...

A centroid model of species distribution with applications to the Carolina wren Thryothorus ludovicianus and house finch Haemorhous mexicanus in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Qiongyu; Sauer, John R.; Swatantran, Anu; Dubayah, Ralph

2016-01-01

Drastic shifts in species distributions are a cause of concern for ecologists. Such shifts pose great threat to biodiversity especially under unprecedented anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Many studies have documented recent shifts in species distributions. However, most of these studies are limited to regional scales, and do not consider the abundance structure within species ranges. Developing methods to detect systematic changes in species distributions over their full ranges is critical for understanding the impact of changing environments and for successful conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate a centroid model for range-wide analysis of distribution shifts using the North American Breeding Bird Survey. The centroid model is based on a hierarchical Bayesian framework which models population change within physiographic strata while accounting for several factors affecting species detectability. Yearly abundance-weighted range centroids are estimated. As case studies, we derive annual centroids for the Carolina wren and house finch in their ranges in the U.S. We further evaluate the first-difference correlation between species’ centroid movement and changes in winter severity, total population abundance. We also examined associations of change in centroids from sub-ranges. Change in full-range centroid movements of Carolina wren significantly correlate with snow cover days (r = −0.58). For both species, the full-range centroid shifts also have strong correlation with total abundance (r = 0.65, and 0.51 respectively). The movements of the full-range centroids of the two species are correlated strongly (up to r = 0.76) with that of the sub-ranges with more drastic population changes. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of centroids for analyzing distribution changes in a two-dimensional spatial context. Particularly it highlights applications that associate the centroid with factors such as environmental stressors, population characteristics

Confronting species distribution model predictions with species functional traits.

Science.gov (United States)

Wittmann, Marion E; Barnes, Matthew A; Jerde, Christopher L; Jones, Lisa A; Lodge, David M

2016-02-01

Species distribution models are valuable tools in studies of biogeography, ecology, and climate change and have been used to inform conservation and ecosystem management. However, species distribution models typically incorporate only climatic variables and species presence data. Model development or validation rarely considers functional components of species traits or other types of biological data. We implemented a species distribution model (Maxent) to predict global climate habitat suitability for Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella). We then tested the relationship between the degree of climate habitat suitability predicted by Maxent and the individual growth rates of both wild (N = 17) and stocked (N = 51) Grass Carp populations using correlation analysis. The Grass Carp Maxent model accurately reflected the global occurrence data (AUC = 0.904). Observations of Grass Carp growth rate covered six continents and ranged from 0.19 to 20.1 g day(-1). Species distribution model predictions were correlated (r = 0.5, 95% CI (0.03, 0.79)) with observed growth rates for wild Grass Carp populations but were not correlated (r = -0.26, 95% CI (-0.5, 0.012)) with stocked populations. Further, a review of the literature indicates that the few studies for other species that have previously assessed the relationship between the degree of predicted climate habitat suitability and species functional traits have also discovered significant relationships. Thus, species distribution models may provide inferences beyond just where a species may occur, providing a useful tool to understand the linkage between species distributions and underlying biological mechanisms.

Mechanisms controlling the distribution of two invasive Bromus species

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga Bykova

2014-03-01

Full Text Available In order to predict future range shifts for invasive species it is important to explore their ability to acclimate to the new environment and understand physiological and reproductive constraints controlling their distribution. My dissertation studied mechanisms by which temperature may affect the distribution of two aggressive plant invaders in North America, Bromus tectorum and Bromus rubens. I first evaluated winter freezing tolerance of Bromus species and demonstrated that the mechanism explaining their distinct northern range limits is different acquisition time of freezing tolerance. While B. rubens has a slower rate of freezing acclimation that leads to intolerance of sudden, late-autumn drops in temperature below -12°C, B. tectorum rapidly hardens and so is not impacted by the sudden onset of severe late-autumn cold. In addition, the analysis of male reproductive development and seed production showed that neither species produces seed at or above 36°C, due to complete pollen sterility, which might trigger climate-mediated range contractions at B. tectorum and B. rubens southern margins. Finally, a detailed gas-exchange analysis combined with biochemical modelling demonstrated that both species acclimate to a broad range of temperatures and photosynthetic response to temperature does not explain their current range separation.

Shift in serotype distribution of Shigella species in China, 2003-2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, S; Xu, X; Yang, C; Wang, J; Liang, B; Li, P; Li, H; Yi, S; Liu, H; Cui, X; Wu, Z; Xie, J; Jia, L; Wang, L; Hao, R; Jin, H; Wang, Y; Sun, Y; Song, H

2015-03-01

We identified 2912 Shigella isolates from diarrhoeal patients in China during 2003-2013. The most common species was Shigella flexneri (55.3%), followed by Shigella sonnei (44.1%); however, S. sonnei is becoming increasingly prevalent. Among the S. flexneri isolates, serotypes 2a and X variant (-:7,8, E1037) were the two most prevalent serotypes, and serologically atypical isolates were also commonly identified. Overall, S. sonnei, S. flexneri 2a and S. flexneri X variant (-:7,8, E1037) accounted for 76.1% of all Shigella isolates, and their prevalence increased from 54.0% during 2003-2004 to 84.1% during 2011-2013. A change was observed in the serotype distribution of Shigella in China during this period, and we propose an ideal strategy to inform the development of a broadly effective Shigella vaccine candidate. Copyright © 2014 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of global change on the distribution, species richness and life history of European dragonflies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Kent

2016-01-01

traits such as taxonomy, habitat specificity, metabolic plasticity, and biogeographic traits such zoogeographical origin. In Paper I we describe how changes in species richness pattern across Europe correlate with range changes in different taxonomic and biogeographic groups of dragonflies. We found...... specialized species adapted to permanent running (perennial lotic) water habitats. We found that species reproducing in temporary water track climate changes better than species adapted to permanent water. In Paper III we explore the relationship between metabolic plasticity (expressed as the ability to shift...... with less metabolic plasticity. We conducted experimental ex-situ measurements of metabolic rates measured as respiration rates at 10°C and 20°C, respectively, of four Scandinavian dragonfly species. We used two species with a northern distribution, one with a southern distribution and one ubiquitous...

Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Keliang; Yao, Linjun; Meng, Jiasong; Tao, Jun

2018-09-01

Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), an economically important plant genus, includes many popular ornamentals and medicinal plant species used in traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about the properties of the habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping the suitability. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. delavayi and P. rockii by Maxent, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results showed that the moderate and high suitable areas for P. delavayi and P. rockii encompassed ca. 4.46×10 5 km 2 and 1.89×10 5 km 2 , respectively. Temperature seasonality and isothermality were identified as the most critical factors shaping P. delavayi distribution, and UVB-4 and annual precipitation were identified as the most critical for shaping P. rockii distribution. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), the range of both species increased as global warming intensified; however, under the scenario with higher concentrations of emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range of P. delavayi decreased while P. rockii increased. Overall, our prediction showed that a shift in distribution of suitable habitat to higher elevations would gradually become more significant. The information gained from this study should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for these species. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Detecting and Attributing the Effects of Climate Change on the Distributions of Snake Species Over the Past 50 Years.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianguo

2016-01-01

It is unclear whether the distributions of snakes have changed in association with climate change over the past years. We detected the distribution changes of snakes over the past 50 years and determined whether the changes could be attributed to recent climate change in China. Long-term records of the distribution of nine snake species in China, grey relationship analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques, the consistency index, and attributed methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of snake species have changed in multiple directions, primarily shifting northwards, and most of the changes were related to the thermal index. Driven by climatic factors over the past 50 years, the distribution boundary and distribution centers of some species changed with the fluctuations. The observed and predicted changes in distribution were highly consistent for some snake species. The changes in the northern limits of distributions of nearly half of the species, as well as the southern and eastern limits, and the distribution centers of some snake species can be attributed to climate change.

Nutrient addition shifts plant community composition towards earlier flowering species in some prairie ecoregions in the U.S. Central Plains.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lori Biederman

Full Text Available The distribution of flowering across the growing season is governed by each species' evolutionary history and climatic variability. However, global change factors, such as eutrophication and invasion, can alter plant community composition and thus change the distribution of flowering across the growing season. We examined three ecoregions (tall-, mixed, and short-grass prairie across the U.S. Central Plains to determine how nutrient (nitrogen (N, phosphorus, and potassium (+micronutrient addition alters the temporal patterns of plant flowering traits. We calculated total community flowering potential (FP by distributing peak-season plant cover values across the growing season, allocating each species' cover to only those months in which it typically flowers. We also generated separate FP profiles for exotic and native species and functional group. We compared the ability of the added nutrients to shift the distribution of these FP profiles (total and sub-groups across the growing season. In all ecoregions, N increased the relative cover of both exotic species and C3 graminoids that flower in May through August. The cover of C4 graminoids decreased with added N, but the response varied by ecoregion and month. However, these functional changes only aggregated to shift the entire community's FP profile in the tall-grass prairie, where the relative cover of plants expected to flower in May and June increased and those that flower in September and October decreased with added N. The relatively low native cover in May and June may leave this ecoregion vulnerable to disturbance-induced invasion by exotic species that occupy this temporal niche. There was no change in the FP profile of the mixed and short-grass prairies with N addition as increased abundance of exotic species and C3 graminoids replaced other species that flower at the same time. In these communities a disturbance other than nutrient addition may be required to disrupt phenological

Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a widespread agricultural pest.

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Meynard, Christine N; Migeon, Alain; Navajas, Maria

2013-01-01

Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi), an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1) species prevalence; (2) modelling method; and (3) variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive threat

Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae, a widespread agricultural pest.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christine N Meynard

Full Text Available Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi, an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1 species prevalence; (2 modelling method; and (3 variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive

Identification of squid species by melting temperature shifts on fluorescence melting curve analysis (FMCA) using single dual-labeled probe

Science.gov (United States)

Koh, Eunjung; Song, Ha Jeong; Kwon, Na Young; Kim, Gi Won; Lee, Kwang Ho; Jo, Soyeon; Park, Sujin; Park, Jihyun; Park, Eun Kyeong; Hwang, Seung Yong

2017-06-01

Real time PCR is a standard method for identification of species. One of limitations of the qPCR is that there would be false-positive result due to mismatched hybridization between target sequence and probe depending on the annealing temperature in the PCR condition. As an alternative, fluorescence melting curve analysis (FMCA) could be applied for species identification. FMCA is based on a dual-labeled probe. Even with subtle difference of target sequence, there are visible melting temperature (Tm) shift. One of FMCA applications is distinguishing organisms distributed and consumed globally as popular food ingredients. Their prices are set by species or country of origin. However, counterfeiting or distributing them without any verification procedure are becoming social problems and threatening food safety. Besides distinguishing them in naked eye is very difficult and almost impossible in any processed form. Therefore, it is necessary to identify species in molecular level. In this research three species of squids which have 1-2 base pair differences each are selected as samples since they have the same issue. We designed a probe which perfectly matches with one species and the others mismatches 2 and 1 base pair respectively and labeled with fluorophore and quencher. In an experiment with a single probe, we successfully distinguished them by Tm shift depending on the difference of base pair. By combining FMCA and qPCR chip, smaller-scale assay with higher sensitivity and resolution could be possible, andc furthermore, enabling results analysis with smart phone would realize point-of-care testing (POCT).

Mechanisms Controlling Species Responses to Climate Change: Thermal Tolerances and Shifting Range Limits. (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Sage, R. F.; Bykova, O.; Coiner, H.

2010-12-01

One of the main effects of anthropogenic climate change will be widespread shifts in species distribution, with the common assumption that they will migrate to higher elevation and latitude. While this assumption is supported by migration patterns following climate warming in the past 20,000 years, it has not been rigorously evaluated in terms of physiological mechanism, despite the implication that migration in response to climate warming is controlled by some form of thermal adaptation. We have been evaluating the degree to which species range limits are controlled by physiological patterns of thermal tolerance in bioinvaders of North America. Bioinvaders presumably have few biotic controls over their distribution and thus are more likely to fully exploit their thermal niche. In cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), the minimum lethal temperature in winter is -32C, which corresponds to the mean winter minimum temperature at its northern range limit. In red brome (Bromus rubens), the minimum lethal temperature is also near -32C, which is well below the minimum winter temperature near -20C that corresponds to its northern distribution limit. In kudzu (Pueraria lobata), the minimum lethal temperature is near -20C, which corresponds to the midwinter minimum at its northern distribution limit; however, overwintering kudzu tissues are insulated by soil and snow cover, and thus do not experience lethal temperatures at kudzu's northern range limit. These results demonstrate that some invasive species can exploit the potential range defined by their low temperature tolerance and thus can be predicted by mechanistic models to migrate to higher latitudes with moderation of winter cold. The distribution of other invaders such as kudzu and red brome are not controlled by tolerance of midwinter cold. Developing mechanistic models of their distributions, and how these might change with climate warming, will require extensive physiological study.

Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

2012-01-01

Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins....... Here, we investigate geographical range shifts relative to changing climatic conditions among a particularly well-sampled assemblage of butterflies in Canada. We assembled observations of 81 species and measured their latitudinal displacement between two periods: 1960–1975 (a period of little climate...... change) and 1990–2005 (a period with large climate change). We find an unexpected trend for species’ northern borders to shift progressively less relative to increasing minimum winter temperatures in northern Canada. This study demonstrates a novel, systemic latitudinal gradient in lags among a large...

The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Valladares, Fernando; Matesanz, Silvia; Guilhaumon, François; Araújo, Miguel B; Balaguer, Luis; Benito-Garzón, Marta; Cornwell, Will; Gianoli, Ernesto; van Kleunen, Mark; Naya, Daniel E; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Poorter, Hendrik; Zavala, Miguel A

2014-11-01

Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche-modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population-level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation. © 2014 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

Effects of Hypoxia on the Phylogenetic Composition and Species Distribution of Protists in a Subtropical Harbor.

Science.gov (United States)

Rocke, Emma; Jing, Hongmei; Xia, Xiaomin; Liu, Hongbin

2016-07-01

Tolo Harbor, a subtropical semi-enclosed coastal water body, is surrounded by an expanding urban community, which contributes to large concentrations of nutrient runoff, leading to algal blooms and localized hypoxic episodes. Present knowledge of protist distributions in subtropical waters during hypoxic conditions is very limited. In this study, therefore, we combined parallel 454 pyrosequencing technology and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) fingerprint analyses to reveal the protist community shifts before, during, and after a 2-week hypoxic episode during the summer of 2011. Hierarchical clustering for DGGE demonstrated similar grouping of hypoxic samples separately from oxic samples. Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and dissolved inorganic nitrogen:phosphate (DIN:PO4) concentrations significantly affected OTU distribution in 454 sequenced samples, and a shift toward a ciliate and marine alveolate clade II (MALV II) species composition occurred as waters shifted from oxic to hypoxic. These results suggest that protist community shifts toward heterotrophic and parasitic tendencies as well as decreased diversity and richness in response to hypoxic outbreaks.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on animal distributions: the importance of local adaptation and species' traits

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

HELLMANN, J. J.; LOBO, N. F.

2011-12-20

The geographic range limits of many species are strongly affected by climate and are expected to change under global warming. For species that are able to track changing climate over broad geographic areas, we expect to see shifts in species distributions toward the poles and away from the equator. A number of ecological and evolutionary factors, however, could restrict this shifting or redistribution under climate change. These factors include restricted habitat availability, restricted capacity for or barriers to movement, or reduced abundance of colonists due the perturbation effect of climate change. This research project examined the last of these constraints - that climate change could perturb local conditions to which populations are adapted, reducing the likelihood that a species will shift its distribution by diminishing the number of potential colonists. In the most extreme cases, species ranges could collapse over a broad geographic area with no poleward migration and an increased risk of species extinction. Changes in individual species ranges are the processes that drive larger phenomena such as changes in land cover, ecosystem type, and even changes in carbon cycling. For example, consider the poleward range shift and population outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle that has decimated millions of acres of Douglas fir trees in the western US and Canada. Standing dead trees cause forest fires and release vast quantities of carbon to the atmosphere. The beetle likely shifted its range because it is not locally adapted across its range, and it appears to be limited by winter low temperatures that have steadily increased in the last decades. To understand range and abundance changes like the pine beetle, we must reveal the extent of adaptive variation across species ranges - and the physiological basis of that adaptation - to know if other species will change as readily as the pine beetle. Ecologists tend to assume that range shifts are the dominant

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

Science.gov (United States)

King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

2013-01-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

Science.gov (United States)

King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

2013-01-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model.

Science.gov (United States)

King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

2013-12-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine-prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and

Deriving field-based species sensitivity distributions (f-SSDs) from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs).

Science.gov (United States)

Schipper, Aafke M; Posthuma, Leo; de Zwart, Dick; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2014-12-16

Quantitative relationships between species richness and single environmental factors, also called species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), are helpful to understand and predict biodiversity patterns, identify environmental management options and set environmental quality standards. However, species richness is typically dependent on a variety of environmental factors, implying that it is not straightforward to quantify SSDs from field monitoring data. Here, we present a novel and flexible approach to solve this, based on the method of stacked species distribution modeling. First, a species distribution model (SDM) is established for each species, describing its probability of occurrence in relation to multiple environmental factors. Next, the predictions of the SDMs are stacked along the gradient of each environmental factor with the remaining environmental factors at fixed levels. By varying those fixed levels, our approach can be used to investigate how field-based SSDs for a given environmental factor change in relation to changing confounding influences, including for example optimal, typical, or extreme environmental conditions. This provides an asset in the evaluation of potential management measures to reach good ecological status.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Wisz, Mary Susanne; Pottier, Julien; Kissling, W Daniel; Pellissier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Damgaard, Christian F; Dormann, Carsten F; Forchhammer, Mads C; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Guisan, Antoine; Heikkinen, Risto K; Høye, Toke T; Kühn, Ingolf; Luoto, Miska; Maiorano, Luigi; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte; Normand, Signe; Öckinger, Erik; Schmidt, Niels M; Termansen, Mette; Timmermann, Allan; Wardle, David A; Aastrup, Peter; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-02-01

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally

ESUSA: US endangered species distribution file

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nagy, J.; Calef, C.E.

1979-10-01

This report describes a file containing distribution data on endangered species of the United States of Federal concern pursuant to the Endangered Species Act of 1973. Included for each species are (a) the common name, (b) the scientific name, (c) the family, (d) the group (mammal, bird, etc.), (e) Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) listing and recovery priorities, (f) the Federal legal status, (g) the geographic distribution by counties or islands, (h) Federal Register citations and (i) the sources of the information on distribution of the species. Status types are endangered, threatened, proposed, formally under review, candidate, deleted, and rejected. Distribution is by Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) county code and is of four types: designated critical habitat, present range, potential range, and historic range.

Attitude dynamics and control of a spacecraft using shifting mass distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Ahn, Young Tae

Spacecraft need specific attitude control methods that depend on the mission type or special tasks. The dynamics and the attitude control of a spacecraft with a shifting mass distribution within the system are examined. The behavior and use of conventional attitude control actuators are widely developed and performing at the present time. However, the advantage of a shifting mass distribution concept can complement spacecraft attitude control, save mass, and extend a satellite's life. This can be adopted in practice by moving mass from one tank to another, similar to what an airplane does to balance weight. Using this shifting mass distribution concept, in conjunction with other attitude control devices, can augment the three-axis attitude control process. Shifting mass involves changing the center-of-mass of the system, and/or changing the moments of inertia of the system, which then ultimately can change the attitude behavior of the system. This dissertation consists of two parts. First, the equations of motion for the shifting mass concept (also known as morphing) are developed. They are tested for their effects on attitude control by showing how shifting the mass changes the spacecraft's attitude behavior. Second, a method for optimal mass redistribution is shown using a combinatorial optimization theory under constraints. It closes with a simple example demonstrating an optimal reconfiguration. The procedure of optimal reconfiguration from one mass distribution to another to accomplish attitude control has been demonstrated for several simple examples. Mass shifting could work as an attitude controller for fine-tuning attitude behavior in small satellites. Various constraints can be applied for different situations, such as no mass shift between two tanks connected by a failed pipe or total amount of shifted mass per pipe being set for the time optimum solution. Euler angle changes influenced by the mass reconfiguration are accomplished while stability

Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ...

Science.gov (United States)

Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana,USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts. Communities of organisms from mammals to microorganisms have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at discrete spatial and temporal scales within ecosystems. Here, a paleoecological record of diatom community change is use

Use of the truncated shifted Pareto distribution in assessing size distribution of oil and gas fields

Science.gov (United States)

Houghton, J.C.

1988-01-01

The truncated shifted Pareto (TSP) distribution, a variant of the two-parameter Pareto distribution, in which one parameter is added to shift the distribution right and left and the right-hand side is truncated, is used to model size distributions of oil and gas fields for resource assessment. Assumptions about limits to the left-hand and right-hand side reduce the number of parameters to two. The TSP distribution has advantages over the more customary lognormal distribution because it has a simple analytic expression, allowing exact computation of several statistics of interest, has a "J-shape," and has more flexibility in the thickness of the right-hand tail. Oil field sizes from the Minnelusa play in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming and Montana, are used as a case study. Probability plotting procedures allow easy visualization of the fit and help the assessment. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Multi-source analysis reveals latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in range of Ixodes ricinus at its northern distribution limit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristoffersen Anja B

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There is increasing evidence for a latitudinal and altitudinal shift in the distribution range of Ixodes ricinus. The reported incidence of tick-borne disease in humans is on the rise in many European countries and has raised political concern and attracted media attention. It is disputed which factors are responsible for these trends, though many ascribe shifts in distribution range to climate changes. Any possible climate effect would be most easily noticeable close to the tick's geographical distribution limits. In Norway- being the northern limit of this species in Europe- no documentation of changes in range has been published. The objectives of this study were to describe the distribution of I. ricinus in Norway and to evaluate if any range shifts have occurred relative to historical descriptions. Methods Multiple data sources - such as tick-sighting reports from veterinarians, hunters, and the general public - and surveillance of human and animal tick-borne diseases were compared to describe the present distribution of I. ricinus in Norway. Correlation between data sources and visual comparison of maps revealed spatial consistency. In order to identify the main spatial pattern of tick abundance, a principal component analysis (PCA was used to obtain a weighted mean of four data sources. The weighted mean explained 67% of the variation of the data sources covering Norway's 430 municipalities and was used to depict the present distribution of I. ricinus. To evaluate if any geographical range shift has occurred in recent decades, the present distribution was compared to historical data from 1943 and 1983. Results Tick-borne disease and/or observations of I. ricinus was reported in municipalities up to an altitude of 583 metres above sea level (MASL and is now present in coastal municipalities north to approximately 69°N. Conclusion I. ricinus is currently found further north and at higher altitudes than described in

How does biomass distribution change with size and differ among species? An analysis for 1200 plant species from five continents.

Science.gov (United States)

Poorter, Hendrik; Jagodzinski, Andrzej M; Ruiz-Peinado, Ricardo; Kuyah, Shem; Luo, Yunjian; Oleksyn, Jacek; Usoltsev, Vladimir A; Buckley, Thomas N; Reich, Peter B; Sack, Lawren

2015-11-01

We compiled a global database for leaf, stem and root biomass representing c. 11 000 records for c. 1200 herbaceous and woody species grown under either controlled or field conditions. We used this data set to analyse allometric relationships and fractional biomass distribution to leaves, stems and roots. We tested whether allometric scaling exponents are generally constant across plant sizes as predicted by metabolic scaling theory, or whether instead they change dynamically with plant size. We also quantified interspecific variation in biomass distribution among plant families and functional groups. Across all species combined, leaf vs stem and leaf vs root scaling exponents decreased from c. 1.00 for small plants to c. 0.60 for the largest trees considered. Evergreens had substantially higher leaf mass fractions (LMFs) than deciduous species, whereas graminoids maintained higher root mass fractions (RMFs) than eudicotyledonous herbs. These patterns do not support the hypothesis of fixed allometric exponents. Rather, continuous shifts in allometric exponents with plant size during ontogeny and evolution are the norm. Across seed plants, variation in biomass distribution among species is related more to function than phylogeny. We propose that the higher LMF of evergreens at least partly compensates for their relatively low leaf area : leaf mass ratio. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Relating species abundance distributions to species-area curves in two Mediterranean-type shrublands

Science.gov (United States)

Keeley, Jon E.

2003-01-01

Based on both theoretical and empirical studies there is evidence that different species abundance distributions underlie different species-area relationships. Here I show that Australian and Californian shrubland communities (at the scale from 1 to 1000 m2) exhibit different species-area relationships and different species abundance patterns. The species-area relationship in Australian heathlands best fits an exponential model and species abundance (based on both density and cover) follows a narrow log normal distribution. In contrast, the species-area relationship in Californian shrublands is best fit with the power model and, although species abundance appears to fit a log normal distribution, the distribution is much broader than in Australian heathlands. I hypothesize that the primary driver of these differences is the abundance of small-stature annual species in California and the lack of annuals in Australian heathlands. Species-area is best fit by an exponential model in Australian heathlands because the bulk of the species are common and thus the species-area curves initially rise rapidly between 1 and 100 m2. Annuals in Californian shrublands generate very broad species abundance distributions with many uncommon or rare species. The power function is a better model in these communities because richness increases slowly from 1 to 100 m2 but more rapidly between 100 and 1000 m2due to the abundance of rare or uncommon species that are more likely to be encountered at coarser spatial scales. The implications of this study are that both the exponential and power function models are legitimate representations of species-area relationships in different plant communities. Also, structural differences in community organization, arising from different species abundance distributions, may lead to different species-area curves, and this may be tied to patterns of life form distribution.

Climate change, tourism and historical grazing influence the distribution of Carex lachenalii Schkuhr - A rare arctic-alpine species in the Tatra Mts.

Science.gov (United States)

Czortek, Patryk; Delimat, Anna; Dyderski, Marcin K; Zięba, Antoni; Jagodziński, Andrzej M; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan

2018-03-15

Mountain vegetation is highly specialized to harsh climatic conditions and therefore is sensitive to any change in environment. The rarest and most vulnerable plants occurring in alpine regions are expected to respond rapidly to environmental changes. An example of such a species is Carex lachenalii subsp. lachenalii Schkuhr, which occurs in Poland on only a few isolated sites in the Tatra Mts. The aim of this study was to assess changes in distribution of C. lachenalii in the Tatra Mts over the past 50-150years and the effects of climate change, tourism and historical grazing on the ecological niche of C. lachenalii. We focused on changes in the importance of functional diversity components in shaping plant species composition. Over the past 50-150years, the elevation of the average distribution of C. lachenalii shifted about 178m upward alongside a significant prolongation of the vegetative season by approximately 20days in the last 50-60years. Species composition of plots without C. lachenalii was characterized by competition between plants, whereas on plots with C. lachenalii habitat filtering was the most important component. Our results suggest that climate change was the main factor driving upward shift of C. lachenalii. Moderate trampling enhanced horizontal spread of this plant, whereas cessation of grazing grazing caused decline of C. lachenalii. The three environmental factors studied that determined shifts in distribution of C. lachenalii may also contribute to changes in distribution of other rare mountain plant species causing changes in ecosystem functioning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climatic-Induced Shifts in the Distribution of Teak ( Tectona grandis) in Tropical Asia: Implications for Forest Management and Planning

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Deb, Jiban Chandra; Phinn, Stuart; Butt, Nathalie; McAlpine, Clive A.

2017-09-01

Modelling the future suitable climate space for tree species has become a widely used tool for forest management planning under global climate change. Teak ( Tectona grandis) is one of the most valuable tropical hardwood species in the international timber market, and natural teak forests are distributed from India through Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. The extents of teak forests are shrinking due to deforestation and the local impacts of global climate change. However, the direct impacts of climate changes on the continental-scale distributions of native and non-native teak have not been examined. In this study, we developed a species distribution model for teak across its entire native distribution in tropical Asia, and its non-native distribution in Bangladesh. We used presence-only records of trees and twelve environmental variables that were most representative for current teak distributions in South and Southeast Asia. MaxEnt (maximum entropy) models were used to model the distributions of teak under current and future climate scenarios. We found that land use/land cover change and elevation were the two most important variables explaining the current and future distributions of native and non-native teak in tropical Asia. Changes in annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and annual mean actual evapotranspiration may result in shifts in the distributions of teak across tropical Asia. We discuss the implications for the conservation of critical teak habitats, forest management planning, and risks of biological invasion that may occur due to its cultivation in non-native ranges.

Assessing distributions of two invasive species of contrasting habits in future climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Panda, Rajendra Mohan; Behera, Mukunda Dev; Roy, Partha Sarathi

2018-05-01

Understanding the impact of climate change on species invasion is crucial for sustainable biodiversity conservation. Through this study, we try to answer how species differing in phenological cycles, specifically Cassia tora and Lantana camara, differ in the manner in which they invade new regions in India in the future climate. Since both species occupy identical niches, exploring their invasive potential in different climate change scenarios will offer critical insights into invasion and inform ecosystem management. We use three modelling protocols (i.e., maximum entropy, generalised linear model and generalised additive model) to predict the current distribution. Projections are made for both moderate (A1B) and extreme (A2) IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios for the year 2050 and 2100. The study reveals that the distributions of C. tora (annual) and L. camara (perennial) would depend on the precipitation of the warmest quarter and moisture availability. C. tora may demonstrate physiological tolerance to the mean diurnal temperature range and L. camara to the solar radiation. C. tora may invade central India, while L. camara may invade the Western Himalaya, parts of the Eastern Himalaya and the Western Ghats. The distribution ranges of both species could shift in the northern and north-eastern directions in India, owing to changes in moisture availability. The possible alterations in precipitation regimes could lead to water stress, which might have cascading effects on species invasion. L. camara might adapt to climate change better compared with C. tora. This comparative analysis of the future distributions of two invasive plants with contrasting habits demonstrates that temporal complementarity would prevail over the competition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Habitat shift in invading species: Zebra and quagga mussel population characteristics on shallow soft substrates

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Berkman, P.A.; Garton, D.W.; Haltuch, M.A.; Kennedy, G.W.; Febo, L.R.

2000-01-01

Unexpected habitat innovations among invading species are illustrated by the expansion of dreissenid mussels across sedimentary environments in shallow water unlike the hard substrates where they are conventionally known. In this note, records of population characteristics of invading zebra (Dreissena polymorpha) and quagga (Dreissena bugensis) mussels from 1994 through 1998 are reported from shallow (less than 20 m) sedimentary habitats in western Lake Erie. Haphazard SCUBA collections of these invading species indicated that combined densities of zebra and quagga mussels ranged from 0 to 32,500 individuals per square meter between 1994 and 1998, with D. polymorpha comprising 75-100% of the assemblages. These mixed mussel populations, which were attached by byssal threads to each other and underlying sand-grain sediments, had size-frequency distributions that were typical of colonizing populations on hard substrates. Moreover, the presence of two mussel cohorts within the 1994 samples indicated that these species began expanding onto soft substrates not later than 1992, within 4 years of their initial invasion in western Lake Erie. Such historical data provide baselines for interpreting adaptive innovations, ecological interactions and habitat shifts among the two invading dreissenid mussel species in North America.

New trends in species distribution modelling

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Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Graham, Catherine H.; Pearman, Peter B.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-01-01

Species distribution modelling has its origin in the late 1970s when computing capacity was limited. Early work in the field concentrated mostly on the development of methods to model effectively the shape of a species' response to environmental gradients (Austin 1987, Austin et al. 1990). The methodology and its framework were summarized in reviews 10–15 yr ago (Franklin 1995, Guisan and Zimmermann 2000), and these syntheses are still widely used as reference landmarks in the current distribution modelling literature. However, enormous advancements have occurred over the last decade, with hundreds – if not thousands – of publications on species distribution model (SDM) methodologies and their application to a broad set of conservation, ecological and evolutionary questions. With this special issue, originating from the third of a set of specialized SDM workshops (2008 Riederalp) entitled 'The Utility of Species Distribution Models as Tools for Conservation Ecology', we reflect on current trends and the progress achieved over the last decade.

Simulated big sagebrush regeneration supports predicted changes at the trailing and leading edges of distribution shifts

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Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Taylor, Kyle A.; Pennington, Victoria E.; Nelson, Kellen N.; Martin, Trace E.; Rottler, Caitlin M.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

2015-01-01

Many semi-arid plant communities in western North America are dominated by big sagebrush. These ecosystems are being reduced in extent and quality due to economic development, invasive species, and climate change. These pervasive modifications have generated concern about the long-term viability of sagebrush habitat and sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (notably greater sage-grouse), highlighting the need for better understanding of the future big sagebrush distribution, particularly at the species' range margins. These leading and trailing edges of potential climate-driven sagebrush distribution shifts are likely to be areas most sensitive to climate change. We used a process-based regeneration model for big sagebrush, which simulates potential germination and seedling survival in response to climatic and edaphic conditions and tested expectations about current and future regeneration responses at trailing and leading edges that were previously identified using traditional species distribution models. Our results confirmed expectations of increased probability of regeneration at the leading edge and decreased probability of regeneration at the trailing edge below current levels. Our simulations indicated that soil water dynamics at the leading edge became more similar to the typical seasonal ecohydrological conditions observed within the current range of big sagebrush ecosystems. At the trailing edge, an increased winter and spring dryness represented a departure from conditions typically supportive of big sagebrush. Our results highlighted that minimum and maximum daily temperatures as well as soil water recharge and summer dry periods are important constraints for big sagebrush regeneration. Overall, our results confirmed previous predictions, i.e., we see consistent changes in areas identified as trailing and leading edges; however, we also identified potential local refugia within the trailing edge, mostly at sites at higher elevation. Decreasing

Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Qiongyu; Sauer, John R; Dubayah, Ralph O

2017-09-01

Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr -1 . The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species (n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata-level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species-specific approaches to examine contributing

On the Mass Distribution of Animal Species

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Redner, Sidney; Clauset, Aaron; Schwab, David

2009-03-01

We develop a simple diffusion-reaction model to account for the broad and asymmetric distribution of adult body masses for species within related taxonomic groups. The model assumes three basic evolutionary features that control body mass: (i) a fixed lower limit that is set by metabolic constraints, (ii) a species extinction risk that is a weakly increasing function of body mass, and (iii) cladogenetic diffusion, in which daughter species have a slight tendency toward larger mass. The steady-state solution for the distribution of species masses in this model can be expressed in terms of the Airy function. This solution gives mass distributions that are in good agreement with data on 4002 terrestrial mammal species from the late Quaternary and 8617 extant bird species.

Species distributions and climate change:current patterns and future scenarios for biodiversity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hof, Christian

by shifts of their distributional ranges, which affects the spatial patterns of species richness and turnover. Global temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 - 4°C until the end of the century; hence climate change will most likely leave further imprints on species and ecosystems. This PhD thesis aims......-thirds of the areas harboring the richest amphibian faunas may be heavily impacted by at least one of the major threats by 2080. The stability of the climatic niche influences the need for a species to track climate change via dispersal, or its potential to adapt to novel climatic conditions. I therefore explore...... the phylogenetic signal in climatic niches of the world's amphibians, which serves as a surrogate quantification of niche stability. Results indicate an overall tendency of phylogenetic signal to be present in realised climatic niches, but signal strength varies across biogeographical regions and among amphibian...

Bounding species distribution models

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Thomas J. STOHLGREN, Catherine S. JARNEVICH, Wayne E. ESAIAS,Jeffrey T. MORISETTE

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for “clamping” model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART and maximum entropy (Maxent models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5: 642–647, 2011].

Bounding Species Distribution Models

Science.gov (United States)

Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Cahterine S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Esaias, Wayne E.

2011-01-01

Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].

Rapidly shifting baselines in Yangtze fishing communities and local memory of extinct species.

Science.gov (United States)

Turvey, Samuel T; Barrett, Leigh A; Yujiang, Hao; Lei, Zhang; Xinqiao, Zhang; Xianyan, Wang; Yadong, Huang; Kaiya, Zhou; Hart, Tom; Ding, Wang

2010-06-01

Local ecological knowledge can provide a unique source of data for conservation, especially in efforts to investigate the status of rare or possibly extinct species, but it is unlikely to remain constant over time. Loss of perspective about past ecological conditions caused by lack of communication between generations may create "shifting baseline syndrome," in which younger generations are less aware of local species diversity or abundance in the recent past. This phenomenon has been widely discussed, but has rarely been examined quantitatively. We present new evidence of shifting baselines in local perception of regional species declines and on the duration of "community memory" of extinct species on the basis of extensive interviews with fishers in communities across the middle-lower Yangtze basin. Many Yangtze species have experienced major declines in recent decades, and the Yangtze River dolphin or baiji (Lipotes vexillifer) and Yangtze paddlefish (Psephurus gladius) may have become extinct during the 21(st) century. Although informants across all age classes were strongly aware of the Yangtze ecosystem's escalating resource depletion and environmental degradation, older informants were more likely to recognize declines in two commercially important fish species, Reeves' shad (Tenualosa reevesii) and Yangtze pufferfish (Takifugu fasciatus), and to have encountered baiji and paddlefish in the past. Age was also a strong predictor of whether informants had even heard of baiji or paddlefish, with younger informants being substantially less likely to recognize either species. A marked decrease in local knowledge about the Yangtze freshwater megafauna matched the time of major population declines of these species from the 1970s onwards, and paddlefish were already unknown to over 70% of all informants below the age of 40 and to those who first started fishing after 1995. This rapid rate of cultural baseline shift suggests that once even megafaunal species cease to

Exploring similarities among many species distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Simmerman, Scott; Wang, Jingyuan; Osborne, James; Shook, Kimberly; Huang, Jian; Godsoe, William; Simons, Theodore R.

2012-01-01

Collecting species presence data and then building models to predict species distribution has been long practiced in the field of ecology for the purpose of improving our understanding of species relationships with each other and with the environment. Due to limitations of computing power as well as limited means of using modeling software on HPC facilities, past species distribution studies have been unable to fully explore diverse data sets. We build a system that can, for the first time to our knowledge, leverage HPC to support effective exploration of species similarities in distribution as well as their dependencies on common environmental conditions. Our system can also compute and reveal uncertainties in the modeling results enabling domain experts to make informed judgments about the data. Our work was motivated by and centered around data collection efforts within the Great Smoky Mountains National Park that date back to the 1940s. Our findings present new research opportunities in ecology and produce actionable field-work items for biodiversity management personnel to include in their planning of daily management activities.

Constrained consumption shifting management in the distributed energy resources scheduling considering demand response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faria, Pedro; Vale, Zita; Baptista, Jose

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Consumption reduction and/or shift to several periods before and after. • Optimization problem for scheduling of demand response and distributed generation. • Minimization of the Virtual Power Player operation (remuneration) costs. • Demand response can be efficient to meet distributed generation shortages. • Consumers benefit with the remuneration of the participation in demand response. - Abstract: Demand response concept has been gaining increasing importance while the success of several recent implementations makes this resource benefits unquestionable. This happens in a power systems operation environment that also considers an intensive use of distributed generation. However, more adequate approaches and models are needed in order to address the small size consumers and producers aggregation, while taking into account these resources goals. The present paper focuses on the demand response programs and distributed generation resources management by a Virtual Power Player that optimally aims to minimize its operation costs taking the consumption shifting constraints into account. The impact of the consumption shifting in the distributed generation resources schedule is also considered. The methodology is applied to three scenarios based on 218 consumers and 4 types of distributed generation, in a time frame of 96 periods

Interactions of changing climate and shifts in forest composition on stand carbon balance

Science.gov (United States)

Chiang Jyh-Min; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Kim Brown

2006-01-01

Given that climate influences forest biogeographic distribution, many researchers have created models predicting shifts in tree species range with future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to investigate the forest carbon consequences of shifts in stand species composition with current and future climate scenarios using such a model.

Infusing considerations of trophic dependencies into species distribution modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Trainor, Anne M; Schmitz, Oswald J

2014-12-01

Community ecology involves studying the interdependence of species with each other and their environment to predict their geographical distribution and abundance. Modern species distribution analyses characterise species-environment dependency well, but offer only crude approximations of species interdependency. Typically, the dependency between focal species and other species is characterised using other species' point occurrences as spatial covariates to constrain the focal species' predicted range. This implicitly assumes that the strength of interdependency is homogeneous across space, which is not generally supported by analyses of species interactions. This discrepancy has an important bearing on the accuracy of inferences about habitat suitability for species. We introduce a framework that integrates principles from consumer-resource analyses, resource selection theory and species distribution modelling to enhance quantitative prediction of species geographical distributions. We show how to apply the framework using a case study of lynx and snowshoe hare interactions with each other and their environment. The analysis shows how the framework offers a spatially refined understanding of species distribution that is sensitive to nuances in biophysical attributes of the environment that determine the location and strength of species interactions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The effect of shift work on red blood cell distribution width.

Science.gov (United States)

Loprinzi, Paul D

2015-04-01

Limited research demonstrates that shift work (e.g., evening shift, night shift, rotating shift) increases the risk of certain health outcomes, such as hypertriglyceridemia and metabolic syndrome. Red blood cell distribution width (RDW), which is commonly assessed and reported by physicians, is a novel biomarker of cardiovascular disease. However, no study has examined the association of shift work on RDW, which was the purpose of this study. Data from the 2005-2010 NHANES were used. RDW was assessed from a blood sample; shift work was assessed from a questionnaire, and various demographic, behavioral/psychological, occupational, and biological parameters were included as covariates. The fully adjusted model showed that the odds of having an elevated RDW for women on rotating shift vs. day shift increased by 46% (OR=1.46; 95% CI: 1.03-2.08). Women on a rotating shift had increased odds of having an elevated RDW, which is concerning as elevated RDW increases the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Health care professionals are encouraged to include questions about organization of work schedules and their tolerance of such schedules during the patient's consultation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Used-habitat calibration plots: A new procedure for validating species distribution, resource selection, and step-selection models

Science.gov (United States)

Fieberg, John R.; Forester, James D.; Street, Garrett M.; Johnson, Douglas H.; ArchMiller, Althea A.; Matthiopoulos, Jason

2018-01-01

“Species distribution modeling” was recently ranked as one of the top five “research fronts” in ecology and the environmental sciences by ISI's Essential Science Indicators (Renner and Warton 2013), reflecting the importance of predicting how species distributions will respond to anthropogenic change. Unfortunately, species distribution models (SDMs) often perform poorly when applied to novel environments. Compounding on this problem is the shortage of methods for evaluating SDMs (hence, we may be getting our predictions wrong and not even know it). Traditional methods for validating SDMs quantify a model's ability to classify locations as used or unused. Instead, we propose to focus on how well SDMs can predict the characteristics of used locations. This subtle shift in viewpoint leads to a more natural and informative evaluation and validation of models across the entire spectrum of SDMs. Through a series of examples, we show how simple graphical methods can help with three fundamental challenges of habitat modeling: identifying missing covariates, non-linearity, and multicollinearity. Identifying habitat characteristics that are not well-predicted by the model can provide insights into variables affecting the distribution of species, suggest appropriate model modifications, and ultimately improve the reliability and generality of conservation and management recommendations.

Incorporating Context Dependency of Species Interactions in Species Distribution Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Lany, Nina K; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Gouhier, Tarik C; Menge, Bruce A

2017-07-01

Species distribution models typically use correlative approaches that characterize the species-environment relationship using occurrence or abundance data for a single species. However, species distributions are determined by both abiotic conditions and biotic interactions with other species in the community. Therefore, climate change is expected to impact species through direct effects on their physiology and indirect effects propagated through their resources, predators, competitors, or mutualists. Furthermore, the sign and strength of species interactions can change according to abiotic conditions, resulting in context-dependent species interactions that may change across space or with climate change. Here, we incorporated the context dependency of species interactions into a dynamic species distribution model. We developed a multi-species model that uses a time-series of observational survey data to evaluate how abiotic conditions and species interactions affect the dynamics of three rocky intertidal species. The model further distinguishes between the direct effects of abiotic conditions on abundance and the indirect effects propagated through interactions with other species. We apply the model to keystone predation by the sea star Pisaster ochraceus on the mussel Mytilus californianus and the barnacle Balanus glandula in the rocky intertidal zone of the Pacific coast, USA. Our method indicated that biotic interactions between P. ochraceus and B. glandula affected B. glandula dynamics across >1000 km of coastline. Consistent with patterns from keystone predation, the growth rate of B. glandula varied according to the abundance of P. ochraceus in the previous year. The data and the model did not indicate that the strength of keystone predation by P. ochraceus varied with a mean annual upwelling index. Balanus glandula cover increased following years with high phytoplankton abundance measured as mean annual chlorophyll-a. M. californianus exhibited the same

Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

April E Reside

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Accurate predictions of species distributions are essential for climate change impact assessments. However the standard practice of using long-term climate averages to train species distribution models might mute important temporal patterns of species distribution. The benefit of using temporally explicit weather and distribution data has not been assessed. We hypothesized that short-term weather associated with the time a species was recorded should be superior to long-term climate measures for predicting distributions of mobile species. METHODOLOGY: We tested our hypothesis by generating distribution models for 157 bird species found in Australian tropical savannas (ATS using modelling algorithm Maxent. The variable weather of the ATS supports a bird assemblage with variable movement patterns and a high incidence of nomadism. We developed "weather" models by relating climatic variables (mean temperature, rainfall, rainfall seasonality and temperature seasonality from the three month, six month and one year period preceding each bird record over a 58 year period (1950-2008. These weather models were compared against models built using long-term (30 year averages of the same climatic variables. CONCLUSIONS: Weather models consistently achieved higher model scores than climate models, particularly for wide-ranging, nomadic and desert species. Climate models predicted larger range areas for species, whereas weather models quantified fluctuations in habitat suitability across months, seasons and years. Models based on long-term climate averages over-estimate availability of suitable habitat and species' climatic tolerances, masking species potential vulnerability to climate change. Our results demonstrate that dynamic approaches to distribution modelling, such as incorporating organism-appropriate temporal scales, improves understanding of species distributions.

Persistent natural acidification drives major distribution shifts in marine benthic ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Linares, C.; Vidal, M.; Canals, M.; Kersting, D. K.; Amblas, D.; Aspillaga, E.; Cebrián, E.; Delgado-Huertas, A.; Díaz, D.; Garrabou, J.; Hereu, B.; Navarro, L.; Teixidó, N.; Ballesteros, E.

2015-01-01

Ocean acidification is receiving increasing attention because of its potential to affect marine ecosystems. Rare CO2 vents offer a unique opportunity to investigate the response of benthic ecosystems to acidification. However, the benthic habitats investigated so far are mainly found at very shallow water (less than or equal to 5 m depth) and therefore are not representative of the broad range of continental shelf habitats. Here, we show that a decrease from pH 8.1 to 7.9 observed in a CO2 vent system at 40 m depth leads to a dramatic shift in highly diverse and structurally complex habitats. Forests of the kelp Laminaria rodriguezii usually found at larger depths (greater than 65 m) replace the otherwise dominant habitats (i.e. coralligenous outcrops and rhodolith beds), which are mainly characterized by calcifying organisms. Only the aragonite-calcifying algae are able to survive in acidified waters, while high-magnesium-calcite organisms are almost completely absent. Although a long-term survey of the venting area would be necessary to fully understand the effects of the variability of pH and other carbonate parameters over the structure and functioning of the investigated mesophotic habitats, our results suggest that in addition of significant changes at species level, moderate ocean acidification may entail major shifts in the distribution and dominance of key benthic ecosystems at regional scale, which could have broad ecological and socio-economic implications. PMID:26511045

Forms and genesis of species abundance distributions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evans O. Ochiaga

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Species abundance distribution (SAD is one of the most important metrics in community ecology. SAD curves take a hollow or hyperbolic shape in a histogram plot with many rare species and only a few common species. In general, the shape of SAD is largely log-normally distributed, although the mechanism behind this particular SAD shape still remains elusive. Here, we aim to review four major parametric forms of SAD and three contending mechanisms that could potentially explain this highly skewed form of SAD. The parametric forms reviewed here include log series, negative binomial, lognormal and geometric distributions. The mechanisms reviewed here include the maximum entropy theory of ecology, neutral theory and the theory of proportionate effect.

What Limits the Distribution of Liriomyza huidobrensis and Its Congener Liriomyza sativae in Their Native Niche: When Temperature and Competition Affect Species' Distribution Range in Guatemala.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Castañeda, G; MacVean, C; Cardona, C; Hof, A R

2017-07-01

Factors limiting distribution range for most species are generally unknown regardless of whether they are native or invasive. We studied factors that could enable or restrict the distribution of two cosmopolitan invasive leafminer fly species, Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) and Liriomyza sativae (Blanchard) in their native niche. In order to test which ecological and environmental factors affect leafminer distribution we conducted thermal tolerance assays, sampled along elevation gradients and modeled species distribution. Findings from the field and rearing chambers showed a physiological restriction due to high temperatures for L. huidobrensis at 28-29 °C, above which adult emergence is compromised. We also found that maximum temperatures below 22 °C, typical of tropical highlands, favored L. huidobrensis. L. sativae was found across a wider temperature range (i.e., from 21 to 36 °C) in Guatemala. Our finding of a physiological threshold in temperature for L. huidobrensis may enable us to predict its invasive risk when combined with the environmental conditions at horticultural ports of entry and the global agricultural landscape. Further, it strengthens our predictions on shifts in distribution of the leafminer fly under future climate. We also found a temperature mediated competitive exclusion interaction between the two herbivore species, where L. sativae occurred at temperatures < 22 °C only in the absence of L. huidobrensis. We show that parasitoids had a negative effect on the leafminer flies, which varied with host plant. Finally, we show the importance of taking a multiaspect approach when investigating what limits distribution and invasiveness of a species. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

Science.gov (United States)

Fogarty, Hannah E; Burrows, Michael T; Pecl, Gretta T; Robinson, Lucy M; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2017-05-01

Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range-shifting

Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach

KAUST Repository

Chust, Guillem; Castellani, Claudia; Licandro, Priscilla; Ibaibarriaga, Leire; Sagarminaga, Yolanda; Irigoien, Xabier

2013-01-01

is to verify the poleward shift of zooplankton species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. helgolandicus, C. hyperboreus) for which distributional changes have been recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean and to assess how much of this shift was triggered

Equilibrium of global amphibian species distributions with climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Munguí­a, Mariana; Rahbek, Carsten; Rangel, Thiago F.

2012-01-01

A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a compl...

SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS, SURROGACY, AND IMPORTANT CONSERVATION REGIONS IN CANADA

Science.gov (United States)

Conservation actions could be more efficient if there is congruence among taxa in the distribution of species. Patterns in the geographic distribution of species of six taxa were used to identify nationally important sites for conservation in Canada. Species richness and a meas...

Staphylococcus aureus shifts towards commensalism in response to Corynebacterium species

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew M Ramsey

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Staphylococcus aureus–human interactions result in a continuum of outcomes from commensalism to pathogenesis. S. aureus is a clinically important pathogen that asymptomatically colonizes ~25% of humans as a member of the nostril and skin microbiota, where it resides with other bacteria including commensal Corynebacterium species. Commensal Corynebacterium spp. are also positively correlated with S. aureus in chronic polymicrobial diabetic foot infections, distinct from acute monomicrobial S. aureus infections. Recent work by our lab and others indicates that microbe-microbe interactions between S. aureus and human skin/nasal commensals, including Corynebacterium species, affect S. aureus behavior and fitness. Thus, we hypothesized that S. aureus interactions with Corynebacterium spp. diminish S. aureus virulence. We tested this by assaying for changes in S. aureus gene expression during in vitro mono- versus coculture with Corynebacterium striatum, a common skin and nasal commensal. We observed a broad shift in S. aureus gene transcription during in vitro growth with C. striatum, including increased transcription of genes known to exhibit increased expression during human nasal colonization and decreased transcription of virulence genes. S. aureus uses several regulatory pathways to transition between commensal and pathogenic states. One of these, the quorum signal accessory gene regulator (agr system, was strongly inhibited in response to Corynebacterium spp. Phenotypically, S. aureus exposed to C. striatum exhibited increased adhesion to epithelial cells, reflecting a commensal state, and decreased hemolysin activity, reflecting an attenuation of virulence. Consistent with this, S. aureus displayed diminished fitness in experimental in vivo coinfection with C. striatum when compared to monoinfection. These data support a model in which S. aureus shifts from virulence towards a commensal state when exposed to commensal Corynebacterium species.

The species velocity of trees in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Morrison, B. D.; Napier, J.; de Lafontaine, G.; Heath, K.; Li, B.; Hu, F.; Greenberg, J. A.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change has motivated interest in the paleo record to enhance our knowledge about past vegetation responses to climate change and help understand potential responses in the future. Additionally, polar regions currently experience the most rapid rates of climate change globally, prompting concern over changes in the ecological composition of high latitude ecosystems. Recent analyses have attempted to construct methods to estimate a species' ability to track climate change by computing climate velocity; a measure of the rate of climate displacement across a landscape which may indicate the speed an organism must migrate to keep pace with climate change. However, a challenge to using climate velocity in understanding range shifts is a lack of species-specificity in the velocity calculations: climate velocity does not actually use any species data in its analysis. To solve the shortcomings of climate velocity in estimating species displacement rates, we computed the "species velocity" of white spruce, green and grey alder populations across the state of Alaska from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to today. Species velocity represents the rate and direction a species is required to migrate to keep pace with a changing climate following the LGM. We used a species distribution model to determine past and present white spruce and alder distributions using statistically downscaled climate data at 60m. Species velocity was then derived from the change in species distribution per year by the change in distribution over Alaska (km/yr). High velocities indicate locations where the species environmental envelope is changing drastically and must disperse rapidly to survive climate change. As a result, high velocity regions are more vulnerable to distribution shifts and higher risk of local extinction. Conversely, low species velocities indicate locations where the local climate envelope is shifting relatively slowly, reducing the stress to disperse quickly

Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Lagerholm, Vendela K; Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson; Vaniscotte, Amélie; Potapova, Olga R; Tomek, Teresa; Bochenski, Zbigniew M; Shepherd, Paul; Barton, Nick; Van Dyck, Marie-Claire; Miller, Rebecca; Höglund, Jacob; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Dalén, Love; Stewart, John R

2017-04-01

Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

29Si NMR Chemical Shift Calculation for Silicate Species by Gaussian Software

Science.gov (United States)

Azizi, S. N.; Rostami, A. A.; Godarzian, A.

2005-05-01

Hartree-Fock self-consistent-field (HF-SCF) theory and the Gauge-including atomic orbital (GIAO) methods are used in the calculation of 29Si NMR chemical shifts for ABOUT 90 units of 19 compounds of various silicate species of precursors for zeolites. Calculations have been performed at geometries optimized at the AM1 semi-empirical method. The GIAO-HF-SCF calculations were carried out with using three different basis sets: 6-31G*, 6-31+G** and 6-311+G(2d,p). To demonstrate the quality of the calculations the calculated chemical shifts, δ, were compared with the corresponding experimental values for the compounds in study. The results, especially with 6-31+g** are in excellent agreement with experimental values. The calculated chemical shifts, in practical point of view, appear to be accurate enough to aid in experimental peak assignments. The difference between the experimental and calculated 29Si chemical shift values not only depends on the Qn units but also it seems that basis set effects and the level of theory is more important. For the series of molecules studied here, the standard deviations and mean absolute errors for 29Si chemical shifts relative to TMS determined using Hartree--Fock 6-31+G** basis is nearly in all cases smaller than the errors for shifts determined using HF/6-311+G(2d,p).

Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svenning, Jens-Christian; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Marske, Katharine Ann

2011-01-01

-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, past community assembly, human paleobiogeography, Holocene paleoecology, and even deep-time biogeography (notably, providing insights into biogeographic dynamics >400 million years ago). We discuss important assumptions and uncertainties that affect the SDM approach to paleobiology......Species distribution modeling (SDM: statistical and/or mechanistic approaches to the assessment of range determinants and prediction of species occurrence) offers new possibilities for estimating and studying past organism distributions. SDM complements fossil and genetic evidence by providing (i......) quantitative and potentially high-resolution predictions of the past organism distributions, (ii) statistically formulated, testable ecological hypotheses regarding past distributions and communities, and (iii) statistical assessment of range determinants. In this article, we provide an overview...

Species Distribution modeling as a tool to unravel determinants of palm distribution in Thailand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tovaranonte, Jantrararuk; Barfod, Anders S.; Balslev, Henrik

2011-01-01

As a consequence of the decimation of the forest cover in Thailand from 50% to ca. 20 % since the 1950ies, it is difficult to gain insight in the drivers behind past, present and future distribution ranges of plant species. Species distribution modeling allows visualization of potential species...... distribution under specific sets of assumptions. In this study we used maximum entropy to map potential distributions of 103 species of palms for which more than 5 herbarium records exist. Palms constitute key-stone plant group from both an ecological, economical and conservation perspective. The models were......) and the Area Under the Curve (AUC). All models performed well with AUC scores above 0.95. The predicted distribution ranges showed high suitability for palms in the southern region of Thailand. It also shows that spatial predictor variables are important in cases where historical processes may explain extant...

Gridded Species Distribution, Version 1: Global Amphibians Presence Grids

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Amphibians Presence Grids of the Gridded Species Distribution, Version 1 is a reclassified version of the original grids of amphibian species distribution...

Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Jarnevich, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

2009-01-01

Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Van der Putten, Wim H; Macel, Mirka; Visser, Marcel E

2010-07-12

Current predictions on species responses to climate change strongly rely on projecting altered environmental conditions on species distributions. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that climate change also influences species interactions. We review and synthesize literature information on biotic interactions and use it to argue that the abundance of species and the direction of selection during climate change vary depending on how their trophic interactions become disrupted. Plant abundance can be controlled by aboveground and belowground multitrophic level interactions with herbivores, pathogens, symbionts and their enemies. We discuss how these interactions may alter during climate change and the resulting species range shifts. We suggest conceptual analogies between species responses to climate warming and exotic species introduced in new ranges. There are also important differences: the herbivores, pathogens and mutualistic symbionts of range-expanding species and their enemies may co-migrate, and the continuous gene flow under climate warming can make adaptation in the expansion zone of range expanders different from that of cross-continental exotic species. We conclude that under climate change, results of altered species interactions may vary, ranging from species becoming rare to disproportionately abundant. Taking these possibilities into account will provide a new perspective on predicting species distribution under climate change.

North by north-west: climate change and directions of density shifts in birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Virkkala, Raimo

2016-03-01

There is increasing evidence that climate change shifts species distributions towards poles and mountain tops. However, most studies are based on presence-absence data, and either abundance or the observation effort has rarely been measured. In addition, hardly any studies have investigated the direction of shifts and factors affecting them. Here, we show using count data on a 1000 km south-north gradient in Finland, that between 1970-1989 and 2000-2012, 128 bird species shifted their densities, on average, 37 km towards the north north-east. The species-specific directions of the shifts in density were significantly explained by migration behaviour and habitat type. Although the temperatures have also moved on average towards the north north-east (186 km), the species-specific directions of the shifts in density and temperature did not correlate due to high variation in density shifts. Findings highlight that climate change is unlikely the only driver of the direction of species density shifts, but species-specific characteristics and human land-use practices are also influencing the direction. Furthermore, the alarming results show that former climatic conditions in the north-west corner of Finland have already moved out of the country. This highlights the need for an international approach in research and conservation actions to mitigate the impacts of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Small-scale shifting mosaics of two dominant grassland species: the possible role of soil-borne pathogens

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Olff, H.; Hoorens, B.; De Goede, R.G.M.; Van der Putten, W.H.; Gleichman, J.M.

2000-01-01

We analyzed the dynamics of dominant plant species in a grazed grassland over 17 years, and investigated whether local shifts in these dominant species, leading to vegetation mosaics, could be attributed to interactions between plants and soil-borne pathogens. We found that Festuca rubra and Carer

Small-scale shifting mosaics of two dominant grassland species : the possible role of soil-borne pathogens

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Olff, H.; Hoorens, B.; Goede, R.G.M. de; Putten, W.H. van der; Gleichman, J.M.

2000-01-01

We analyzed the dynamics of dominant plant species in a grazed grassland over 17 years, and investigated whether local shifts in these dominant species, leading to vegetation mosaics, could be attributed to interactions between plants and soil-borne pathogens. We found that Festuca rubra and Carex

Species distribution models of tropical deep-sea snappers.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Céline Gomez

Full Text Available Deep-sea fisheries provide an important source of protein to Pacific Island countries and territories that are highly dependent on fish for food security. However, spatial management of these deep-sea habitats is hindered by insufficient data. We developed species distribution models using spatially limited presence data for the main harvested species in the Western Central Pacific Ocean. We used bathymetric and water temperature data to develop presence-only species distribution models for the commercially exploited deep-sea snappers Etelis Cuvier 1828, Pristipomoides Valenciennes 1830, and Aphareus Cuvier 1830. We evaluated the performance of four different algorithms (CTA, GLM, MARS, and MAXENT within the BIOMOD framework to obtain an ensemble of predicted distributions. We projected these predictions across the Western Central Pacific Ocean to produce maps of potential deep-sea snapper distributions in 32 countries and territories. Depth was consistently the best predictor of presence for all species groups across all models. Bathymetric slope was consistently the poorest predictor. Temperature at depth was a good predictor of presence for GLM only. Model precision was highest for MAXENT and CTA. There were strong regional patterns in predicted distribution of suitable habitat, with the largest areas of suitable habitat (> 35% of the Exclusive Economic Zone predicted in seven South Pacific countries and territories (Fiji, Matthew & Hunter, Nauru, New Caledonia, Tonga, Vanuatu and Wallis & Futuna. Predicted habitat also varied among species, with the proportion of predicted habitat highest for Aphareus and lowest for Etelis. Despite data paucity, the relationship between deep-sea snapper presence and their environments was sufficiently strong to predict their distribution across a large area of the Pacific Ocean. Our results therefore provide a strong baseline for designing monitoring programs that balance resource exploitation and

Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Shuyan; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

2014-12-01

Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model (hereafter GCM-based models) and a downscaled Regional Climate Model (hereafter, RCM-based models).We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present (1990-1999) to the future (2046-2055). RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM-based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa ( Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk), GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

Distribution and diversity of twelve Curcuma species in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Lanyue; Wei, Jingwen; Yang, Zhiwen; Chen, Feng; Xian, Qiqiu; Su, Ping; Pan, Wanyi; Zhang, Kun; Zheng, Xi; Du, Zhiyun

2018-02-01

Genus Curcuma a wild species presents an important source of valuable characters for improving the cultivated Curcuma varieties. Based on the collected germplasms, herbariums, field surveys and other literatures, the ecogeographical diversity of Genus Curcuma and its potential distributions under the present and future climate are analysed by DIVA-GIS. The results indicate Genus Curcuma is distributed over 17 provinces in China, and particularly abundant in Guangxi and Guangdong provinces. The simulated current distributions are close to the actual distribution regions. In the future climate, the suitable areas for four Curcuma species will be extended, while for other three species the regions will be significantly decreased, and thus these valuable resources need protecting.

Distribution of crayfish species in Hungarian waters

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mercédesz, Ludányi; Peeters, E.T.H.M.; Kiss, B.; Roessink, I.

2016-01-01

Three native crayfish species, i.e.~Astacus astacus, Astacus leptodactylus and Austropotamobius torrentium, occur in Hungary. Lately, however, non-indigenous crustaceans have also invaded the country Their most recent distribution and impact on the occurrences of the native species is not clear.

Finessing atlas data for species distribution models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Niamir, A.; Skidmore, A.K.; Toxopeus, A.G.; Munoz, A.R.; Real, R.

2011-01-01

Aim The spatial resolution of species atlases and therefore resulting model predictions are often too coarse for local applications. Collecting distribution data at a finer resolution for large numbers of species requires a comprehensive sampling effort, making it impractical and expensive. This

A simple model for skewed species-lifetime distributions

KAUST Repository

Murase, Yohsuke

2010-06-11

A simple model of a biological community assembly is studied. Communities are assembled by successive migrations and extinctions of species. In the model, species are interacting with each other. The intensity of the interaction between each pair of species is denoted by an interaction coefficient. At each time step, a new species is introduced to the system with randomly assigned interaction coefficients. If the sum of the coefficients, which we call the fitness of a species, is negative, the species goes extinct. The species-lifetime distribution is found to be well characterized by a stretched exponential function with an exponent close to 1/2. This profile agrees not only with more realistic population dynamics models but also with fossil records. We also find that an age-independent and inversely diversity-dependent mortality, which is confirmed in the simulation, is a key mechanism accounting for the distribution. © IOP Publishing Ltd and Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft.

Distributed energy resources management using plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as a fuel-shifting demand response resource

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morais, H.; Sousa, T.; Soares, J.; Faria, P.; Vale, Z.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Definition fuel shifting demand response programs applied to the electric vehicles. • Integration of the proposed fuel shifting in energy resource management algorithm. • Analysis of fuel shifting contribution to support the consumption increasing. • Analysis of fuel shifting contribution to support the electric vehicles growing. • Sensitivity analysis considering different electric vehicles penetration levels. - Abstract: In the smart grids context, distributed energy resources management plays an important role in the power systems’ operation. Battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles should be important resources in the future distribution networks operation. Therefore, it is important to develop adequate methodologies to schedule the electric vehicles’ charge and discharge processes, avoiding network congestions and providing ancillary services. This paper proposes the participation of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in fuel shifting demand response programs. Two services are proposed, namely the fuel shifting and the fuel discharging. The fuel shifting program consists in replacing the electric energy by fossil fuels in plug-in hybrid electric vehicles daily trips, and the fuel discharge program consists in use of their internal combustion engine to generate electricity injecting into the network. These programs are included in an energy resources management algorithm which integrates the management of other resources. The paper presents a case study considering a 37-bus distribution network with 25 distributed generators, 1908 consumers, and 2430 plug-in vehicles. Two scenarios are tested, namely a scenario with high photovoltaic generation, and a scenario without photovoltaic generation. A sensitivity analyses is performed in order to evaluate when each energy resource is required

Book review: A new view on the species abundance distribution

Science.gov (United States)

DeAngelis, Donald L.

2018-01-01

The sampled relative abundances of species of a taxonomic group, whether birds, trees, or moths, in a natural community at a particular place vary in a way that suggests a consistent underlying pattern, referred to as the species abundance distribution (SAD). Preston [1] conjectured that the numbers of species, plotted as a histogram of logarithmic abundance classes called octaves, seemed to fit a lognormal distribution; that is, the histograms look like normal distributions, although truncated on the left-hand, or low-species-abundance, end. Although other specific curves for the SAD have been proposed in the literature, Preston’s lognormal distribution is widely cited in textbooks and has stimulated attempts at explanation. An important aspect of Preston’s lognormal distribution is the ‘veil line’, a vertical line drawn exactly at the point of the left-hand truncation in the distribution, to the left of which would be species missing from the sample. Dewdney rejects the lognormal conjecture. Instead, starting with the long-recognized fact that the number of species sampled from a community, when plotted as histograms against population abundance, resembles an inverted J, he presents a mathematical description of an alternative that he calls the ‘J distribution’, a hyperbolic density function truncated at both ends. When multiplied by species richness, R, it becomes the SAD of the sample.

Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts.

Science.gov (United States)

García Molinos, J; Burrows, M T; Poloczanska, E S

2017-05-02

Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.

Mistaking geography for biology: inferring processes from species distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, Dan L; Cardillo, Marcel; Rosauer, Dan F; Bolnick, Daniel I

2014-10-01

Over the past few decades, there has been a rapid proliferation of statistical methods that infer evolutionary and ecological processes from data on species distributions. These methods have led to considerable new insights, but they often fail to account for the effects of historical biogeography on present-day species distributions. Because the geography of speciation can lead to patterns of spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the distributions of species within a clade, this can result in misleading inferences about the importance of deterministic processes in generating spatial patterns of biodiversity. In this opinion article, we discuss ways in which patterns of species distributions driven by historical biogeography are often interpreted as evidence of particular evolutionary or ecological processes. We focus on three areas that are especially prone to such misinterpretations: community phylogenetics, environmental niche modelling, and analyses of beta diversity (compositional turnover of biodiversity). Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological and life-history traits explain recent boundary shifts in elevation and latitude of western North American songbirds

Science.gov (United States)

Sonya K. Auer; David I. King

2014-01-01

Species are expected to move uphill or poleward in response to climate change, yet their distributions show idiosyncratic responses; many species are moving in the predicted direction, but others are not shifting at all or are shifting downhill or towards the equator. Fundamental questions remain about the causes of interspecific variation in range responses and...

Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Araújo, Miguel B; New, Mark

2007-01-01

Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

Nanoscale shift of the intensity distribution of dipole radiation.

Science.gov (United States)

Shu, Jie; Li, Xin; Arnoldus, Henk F

2009-02-01

The energy flow lines (field lines of the Poynting vector) for radiation emitted by a dipole are in general curves, rather than straight lines. For a linear dipole the field lines are straight, but when the dipole moment of a source rotates, the field lines wind numerous times around an axis, which is perpendicular to the plane of rotation, before asymptotically approaching a straight line. We consider an elliptical dipole moment, representing the most general state of oscillation, and this includes the linear dipole as a special case. Due to the spiraling near the source, for the case of a rotating dipole moment, the field lines in the far field are displaced with respect to the outward radial direction, and this leads to a shift of the intensity distribution of the radiation in the far field. This shift is shown to be independent of the distance to the source and, although of nanoscale dimension, should be experimentally observable.

Demographical history and palaeodistribution modelling show range shift towards Amazon Basin for a Neotropical tree species in the LGM.

Science.gov (United States)

Vitorino, Luciana Cristina; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Terribile, Levi Carina; Collevatti, Rosane G

2016-10-13

We studied the phylogeography and demographical history of Tabebuia serratifolia (Bignoniaceae) to understand the disjunct geographical distribution of South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs). We specifically tested if the multiple and isolated patches of SDTFs are current climatic relicts of a widespread and continuously distributed dry forest during the last glacial maximum (LGM), the so called South American dry forest refugia hypothesis, using ecological niche modelling (ENM) and statistical phylogeography. We sampled 235 individuals of T. serratifolia in 17 populations in Brazil and analysed the polymorphisms at three intergenic chloroplast regions and ITS nuclear ribosomal DNA. Coalescent analyses showed a demographical expansion at the last c. 130 ka (thousand years before present). Simulations and ENM also showed that the current spatial pattern of genetic diversity is most likely due to a scenario of range expansion and range shift towards the Amazon Basin during the colder and arid climatic conditions associated with the LGM, matching the expected for the South American dry forest refugia hypothesis, although contrasting to the Pleistocene Arc hypothesis. Populations in more stable areas or with higher suitability through time showed higher genetic diversity. Postglacial range shift towards the Southeast and Atlantic coast may have led to spatial genome assortment due to leading edge colonization as the species tracks suitable environments, leading to lower genetic diversity in populations at higher distance from the distribution centroid at 21 ka. Haplotype sharing or common ancestry among populations from Caatinga in Northeast Brazil, Atlantic Forest in Southeast and Cerrado biome and ENM evince the past connection among these biomes.

Biotic Interactions Shape the Ecological Distributions of Staphylococcus Species.

Science.gov (United States)

Kastman, Erik K; Kamelamela, Noelani; Norville, Josh W; Cosetta, Casey M; Dutton, Rachel J; Wolfe, Benjamin E

2016-10-18

Many metagenomic sequencing studies have observed the presence of closely related bacterial species or genotypes in the same microbiome. Previous attempts to explain these patterns of microdiversity have focused on the abiotic environment, but few have considered how biotic interactions could drive patterns of microbiome diversity. We dissected the patterns, processes, and mechanisms shaping the ecological distributions of three closely related Staphylococcus species in cheese rind biofilms. Paradoxically, the most abundant species (S. equorum) is the slowest colonizer and weakest competitor based on growth and competition assays in the laboratory. Through in vitro community reconstructions, we determined that biotic interactions with neighboring fungi help resolve this paradox. Species-specific stimulation of the poor competitor by fungi of the genus Scopulariopsis allows S. equorum to dominate communities in vitro as it does in situ Results of comparative genomic and transcriptomic experiments indicate that iron utilization pathways, including a homolog of the S. aureus staphyloferrin B siderophore operon pathway, are potential molecular mechanisms underlying Staphylococcus-Scopulariopsis interactions. Our integrated approach demonstrates that fungi can structure the ecological distributions of closely related bacterial species, and the data highlight the importance of bacterium-fungus interactions in attempts to design and manipulate microbiomes. Decades of culture-based studies and more recent metagenomic studies have demonstrated that bacterial species in agriculture, medicine, industry, and nature are unevenly distributed across time and space. The ecological processes and molecular mechanisms that shape these distributions are not well understood because it is challenging to connect in situ patterns of diversity with mechanistic in vitro studies in the laboratory. Using tractable cheese rind biofilms and a focus on coagulase-negative staphylococcus (CNS

Integrating DNA-based data into bioassessments improves our understanding of species distributions and species habitat relationships

Science.gov (United States)

The integration of DNA-based identification methods into bioassessments could result in more accurate representations of species distributions and species-habitat relationships. DNA-based approaches may be particularly informative for tracking the distributions of rare and/or inv...

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

McCluney, Kevin E.; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L.; González, Angélica L.; Hagen, Elizabeth M.; Holland, J. Nathaniel; Kotler, Burt P.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Smith, Stanley D.; Wolf, Blair O.

2012-01-01

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

McCluney, Kevin E; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L; González, Angélica L; Hagen, Elizabeth M; Nathaniel Holland, J; Kotler, Burt P; Maestre, Fernando T; Smith, Stanley D; Wolf, Blair O

2012-08-01

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts

Body size distribution demonstrates flexible habitat shift of green turtle (Chelonia mydas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryota Hayashi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Green turtles (Chelonia mydas, listed as Endangered on the IUCN redlist, have a broad migration area and undergo a habitat shift from the pelagic (hatchling to neritic (growth zones. We studied habitat utilisation of the coastal feeding grounds around Okinawajima Island, Japan, in 103 green turtles. The western and eastern turtle aggregations off Okinawa had homogeneous genetic compositions, but different body size distributions. The western coastal feeding ground supported larger individuals than the eastern coastal feeding ground. Thus, green turtles appear to prefer different feeding grounds during their growth, and have a flexible habitat shift including a secondary habitat shift from east to west around Okinawajima Island after they are recruited to the coastal habitats. This study suggests maintaining coastal habitat diversity is important for green turtle conservation.

Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Cindy Q.; Dong, Yi-Fei; Herrando-Moraira, Sonia; Matsui, Tetsuya; Ohashi, Haruka; He, Long-Yuan; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Tomita, Mizuki; Li, Xiao-Shuang; Yan, Hai-Zhong; Peng, Ming-Chun; Hu, Jun; Yang, Ruo-Han; Li, Wang-Jun; Yan, Kai; Hou, Xiuli; Zhang, Zhi-Ying; López-Pujol, Jordi

2017-01-01

This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata. PMID:28272437

The origin and distribution of neotropical species of Campylopus

OpenAIRE

Frahm, Jan-Peter

1990-01-01

Of the 65 species of Campylopus known from tropical America, 33 are andine in distribution, 16 are found only in SE Brazil, 8 have wide ranges through Central and South America, 3 species are disjunct in SE-North America and Brazil, 3 are confined to the Caribbean and one species belongs to the circum-pacific and one to the tethyan element. For different parts of the Neotropics, the composition of phytogeographical elements is calculated. For the first time, bryophyte distributions are compar...

How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?

Science.gov (United States)

Dyderski, Marcin K; Paź, Sonia; Frelich, Lee E; Jagodziński, Andrzej M

2018-03-01

Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios-optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)-using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: "winners"-mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercus petraea; "losers"-mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species-Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as "winners." Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Species distribution models may misdirect assisted migration: insights from the introduction of Douglas-fir to Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Boiffin, Juliette; Badeau, Vincent; Bréda, Nathalie

2017-03-01

Species distribution models (SDMs), which statistically relate species occurrence to climatic variables, are widely used to identify areas suitable for species growth under future climates and to plan for assisted migration. When SDMs are projected across times or spaces, it is assumed that species climatic requirements remain constant. However, empirical evidence supporting this assumption is rare, and SDM predictions could be biased. Historical human-aided movements of tree species can shed light on the reliability of SDM predictions in planning for assisted migration. We used Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), a North American conifer introduced into Europe during the mid-19th century, as a case-study to test niche conservatism. We combined transcontinental data sets of Douglas-fir occurrence and climatic predictors to compare the realized niches between native and introduced ranges. We calibrated a SDM in the native range and compared areas predicted to be climatically suitable with observed presences. The realized niches in the native and introduced ranges showed very limited overlap. The SDM calibrated in North America had very high predictive power in the native range, but failed to predict climatic suitability in Europe where Douglas-fir grows in climates that have no analogue in the native range. We review the ecological mechanisms and silvicultural practices that can trigger such shifts in realized niches. Retrospective analysis of tree species introduction revealed that the assumption of niche conservatism is erroneous. As a result, distributions predicted by SDM are importantly biased. There is a high risk that assisted migration programs may be misdirected and target inadequate species or introduction zones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Tang

Full Text Available Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline

Q(n) species distribution in K2O.2SiO2 glass by 29Si magic angle flipping NMR.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Michael C; Kaseman, Derrick C; Parvani, Sahar M; Sanders, Kevin J; Grandinetti, Philip J; Massiot, Dominique; Florian, Pierre

2010-05-06

Two-dimensional magic angle flipping (MAF) was employed to measure the Q((n)) distribution in a (29)Si-enriched potassium disilicate glass (K(2)O.2SiO(2)). Relative concentrations of [Q((4))] = 7.2 +/- 0.3%, [Q((3))] = 82.9 +/- 0.1%, and [Q((2))] = 9.8 +/- 0.6% were obtained. Using the thermodynamic model for Q((n)) species disproportionation, these relative concentrations yield an equilibrium constant k(3) = 0.0103 +/- 0.0008, indicating, as expected, that the Q((n)) species distribution is close to binary in the potassium disilicate glass. A Gaussian distribution of isotropic chemical shifts was observed for each Q((n)) species with mean values of -82.74 +/- 0.03, -91.32 +/- 0.01, and -101.67 +/- 0.02 ppm and standard deviations of 3.27 +/- 0.03, 4.19 +/- 0.01, and 5.09 +/- 0.03 ppm for Q((2)), Q((3)), and Q((4)), respectively. Additionally, nuclear shielding anisotropy values of zeta =-85.0 +/- 1.3 ppm, eta = 0.48 +/- 0.02 for Q((2)) and zeta = -74.9 +/- 0.2 ppm, eta = 0.03 +/- 0.01 for Q((3)) were observed in the potassium disilicate glass.

Changes in plant species richness induce functional shifts in soil nematode communities in experimental grassland.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nico Eisenhauer

Full Text Available Changes in plant diversity may induce distinct changes in soil food web structure and accompanying soil feedbacks to plants. However, knowledge of the long-term consequences of plant community simplification for soil animal food webs and functioning is scarce. Nematodes, the most abundant and diverse soil Metazoa, represent the complexity of soil food webs as they comprise all major trophic groups and allow calculation of a number of functional indices.We studied the functional composition of nematode communities three and five years after establishment of a grassland plant diversity experiment (Jena Experiment. In response to plant community simplification common nematode species disappeared and pronounced functional shifts in community structure occurred. The relevance of the fungal energy channel was higher in spring 2007 than in autumn 2005, particularly in species-rich plant assemblages. This resulted in a significant positive relationship between plant species richness and the ratio of fungal-to-bacterial feeders. Moreover, the density of predators increased significantly with plant diversity after five years, pointing to increased soil food web complexity in species-rich plant assemblages. Remarkably, in complex plant communities the nematode community shifted in favour of microbivores and predators, thereby reducing the relative abundance of plant feeders after five years.The results suggest that species-poor plant assemblages may suffer from nematode communities detrimental to plants, whereas species-rich plant assemblages support a higher proportion of microbivorous nematodes stimulating nutrient cycling and hence plant performance; i.e. effects of nematodes on plants may switch from negative to positive. Overall, food web complexity is likely to decrease in response to plant community simplification and results of this study suggest that this results mainly from the loss of common species which likely alter plant-nematode interactions.

High-resolution pattern of mangrove species distribution is controlled by surface elevation

Science.gov (United States)

Leong, Rick C.; Friess, Daniel A.; Crase, Beth; Lee, Wei Kit; Webb, Edward L.

2018-03-01

Mangrove vegetation species respond to multiple environmental gradients, and an enhanced understanding of how mangrove species are distributed across these gradients will facilitate conservation and management. Many environmental gradients correlate with tidal inundation; however small-scale inundation patterns resulting from microtopographical changes are difficult to capture empirically. In contrast, surface elevation is often a suitable, measurable and cost-effective proxy for inundation. This study investigated the relationships between species distribution and surface elevation in a mangrove forest in northwest Singapore. Through high-resolution land surveying, we developed a digital elevation model (DEM) and conducted a comprehensive survey of 4380 trees with a stem diameter ≥ 5 cm. A total of 15 species were encountered, and elevation envelopes were generated for 12. Species envelopes were distributed along an elevation continuum, with most species overlapping within the continuum. Spatial autocorrelation (SAC) was present for nine of the 15 species, and when taken into account, species ordering was modified across the elevation continuum. The presence of SAC strongly reinforces the need for research to control for SAC: classical spatial description of mangrove species distribution should be revised to account for ecological factors. This study suggests that (1) surface elevation applies strong controls on species distribution and (2) most mangroves at our study site have similar physiological tolerances.

Calculation of extracted ion beam particle distribution including within-extractor collisions from H-alpha Doppler shift measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Tae-Seong; Kim, Jinchoon; In, Sang Ryul; Jeong, Seung Ho

2008-01-01

Prototype long pulse ion sources are being developed and tested toward the goal of a deuterium beam extraction of 120 keV/65 A. The latest prototype source consists of a magnetic bucket plasma generator and a four-grid copper accelerator system with multicircular apertures of 568 holes. To measure the angular divergence and the ion species of the ion beam, an optical multichannel analyzer (OMA) system for a Doppler-shifted H-alpha lights was set up at the end of a gas-cell neutralizer. But the OMA data are very difficult to analyze due to a large background level on the top of the three energy peaks (coming from H + , H 2 + , and H 3 + ). These background spectra in the OMA signals seem to result from partially accelerated ion beams in the accelerator. Extracted ions could undergo a premature charge exchange as the accelerator column tends to have a high hydrogen partial pressure from the unused gas from the plasma generator, resulting in a continuous background of partially accelerated beam particles at the accelerator exit. This effect is calculated by accounting for all the possible atomic collision processes and numerically summing up three ion species across the accelerator column. The collection of all the atomic reaction cross sections and the numerical summing up will be presented. The result considerably depends on the background pressure and the ion beam species ratio (H + , H 2 + , and H 3 + ). This effect constitutes more than 20% of the whole particle distribution. And the energy distribution of those suffering from collisions is broad and shows a broad maximum in the vicinity of the half and the third energy region

Species interactions slow warming-induced upward shifts of treelines on the Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Eryuan; Wang, Yafeng; Piao, Shilong; Lu, Xiaoming; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Zhu, Haifeng; Zhu, Liping; Ciais, Philippe; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-01-01

The alpine treeline is commonly regarded as being sensitive to climatic warming because regeneration and growth of trees at treeline generally are limited by low temperature. The alpine treelines of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) occur at the highest elevations (4,900 m above sea level) in the Northern Hemisphere. Ongoing climatic warming is expected to shift treelines upward. Studies of treeline dynamics at regional and local scales, however, have yielded conflicting results, indicating either unchanging treeline elevations or upward shifts. To reconcile this conflict, we reconstructed in detail a century of treeline structure and tree recruitment at sites along a climatic gradient of 4 °C and mean annual rainfall of 650 mm on the eastern TP. Species interactions interacted with effects of warming on treeline and could outweigh them. Densification of shrubs just above treeline inhibited tree establishment, and slowed upward movement of treelines on a time scale of decades. Interspecific interactions are major processes controlling treeline dynamics that may account for the absence of an upward shift at some TP treelines despite continued climatic warming. PMID:27044083

Species interactions slow warming-induced upward shifts of treelines on the Tibetan Plateau.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Eryuan; Wang, Yafeng; Piao, Shilong; Lu, Xiaoming; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Zhu, Haifeng; Zhu, Liping; Ellison, Aaron M; Ciais, Philippe; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-04-19

The alpine treeline is commonly regarded as being sensitive to climatic warming because regeneration and growth of trees at treeline generally are limited by low temperature. The alpine treelines of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) occur at the highest elevations (4,900 m above sea level) in the Northern Hemisphere. Ongoing climatic warming is expected to shift treelines upward. Studies of treeline dynamics at regional and local scales, however, have yielded conflicting results, indicating either unchanging treeline elevations or upward shifts. To reconcile this conflict, we reconstructed in detail a century of treeline structure and tree recruitment at sites along a climatic gradient of 4 °C and mean annual rainfall of 650 mm on the eastern TP. Species interactions interacted with effects of warming on treeline and could outweigh them. Densification of shrubs just above treeline inhibited tree establishment, and slowed upward movement of treelines on a time scale of decades. Interspecific interactions are major processes controlling treeline dynamics that may account for the absence of an upward shift at some TP treelines despite continued climatic warming.

Differential-phase-shift quantum key distribution using coherent light

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inoue, K.; Waks, E.; Yamamoto, Y.

2003-01-01

Differential-phase-shift quantum key distribution based on two nonorthogonal states is described. A weak coherent pulse train is sent from Alice to Bob, in which the phase of each pulse is randomly modulated by {0,π}. Bob measures the differential phase by a one-bit delay circuit. The system has a simple configuration without the need for an interferometer and a bright reference pulse in Alice's site, unlike the conventional QKD system based on two nonorthogonal states, and has an advantage of improved communication efficiency. The principle of the operation is successfully demonstrated in experiments

Geographic distribution of wild potato species

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hijmans, R.J.; Spooner, D.M.

2001-01-01

The geographic distribution of wild potatoes (Solanaceae sect. Petota) was analyzed using a database of 6073 georeferenced observations. Wild potatoes occur in 16 countries, but 88% of the observations are from Argentina, Bolivia, Mexico, and Peru. Most species are rare and narrowly endemic: for 77

Thematic and spatial resolutions affect model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yu; He, Hong S; Fraser, Jacob S; Wu, ZhiWei

2013-01-01

Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

Species Composition, Relative Abundance and Distribution of the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Species Composition, Relative Abundance and Distribution of the Avian Fauna of Entoto Natural Park and Escarpment, Addis Ababa. ... Eucalyptus plantation, soil erosion, deforestation, habitat fragmentation, settlement and land degradation were the main threats for the distribution of birds in the present study area.

Distribution Patterns of Ohio Stoneflies, with an Emphasis on Rare and Uncommon Species

Science.gov (United States)

Grubbs, Scott A.; Pessimo, Massimo; DeWalt, R. Edward

2013-01-01

Presently, 102 stonefly species (Plecoptera) have been reported from Ohio. All 9 Nearctic families are represented. Over 90% of the fauna exhibit a combination of broad Nearctic-widespread, eastern Nearctic-widespread, Appalachian, and eastern Nearctic-unglaciated distributions. In contrast, only 2 species display a central Nearctic-Prairie distribution. Seven species of Perlidae are likely no longer present (Acroneuria evoluta Klapálek, A. perplexa Frison, Attaneuria ruralis (Hagen), and Neoperla mainensis Banks) or have experienced marked range reductions (Acroneuria abnormis (Newman), A. frisoni Stark and Brown, and A. filicis Frison). Another nearly 31% of the fauna (32 species) are rare, uncommon, or have highly-limited distributions within the state. Twelve of these species have Appalachian distributions, and an additional 8 have eastern Nearctic-unglaciated distributions. The distributional status for each of the 32 rare/uncommon species is discussed. PMID:24219390

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

2012-01-19

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.

Ecological niche transferability using invasive species as a case study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miguel Fernández

Full Text Available Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species' native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species' native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger's I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species' dynamics in the invaded range.

Local time distribution of the SSC-associated HF-Doppler frequency shifts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kikuchi, T.; Sugiuchi, H.; Ishimine, T.

1985-01-01

The HF-Doppler frequency shift observed at the storm's sudden commencement is composed of a frequency increase (+) and decrease (-), and classified into four types, SCF(+ -), SCF(- +), SCF(+) and SCF(-). Since the latter two types are special cases of the former two types, two different kinds of electrical field exist in the F region and cause the ExB drift motion of plasma. HUANG (1976) interpreted the frequency increase of SCF(+ -) as due to the westward induction electric field proportional to delta H/ delta t and the succeeding frequency decrease due to the eastward conduction electric field which produces ionospheric currents responsible for the magnetic increase on the ground. In spite of his success in interpreting the SCF(+ -), some other interpretations are needed for the explanation of the whole set of SCF's, particularly SCF(- +). Local time distributions of the SCF's are derived from 41 SCF's which are observed on the HF standard signal (JJY) as received in Okinawa (path length =1600 km) and Kokubunji (60 km). It is shown that the SCF(+ -) appears mainly during the day, whereas the SCF(- +) is observed during the night. The results indicate that the preliminary frequency shift (+) of SCF(+ -) and (-) of SCF(- +) is caused by a westward electric field in the dayside hemisphere, while by an eastward electric field in the nightside hemisphere. The main frequency shift (-) of SCF(+ -) and (+) of SCF(- +) is caused by the reversed electric field. Consequently, the preliminary frequency shift is caused by the dusk-to-dawn electric field, while the main frequency shift by the dawn-to-dusk electric field

Local time distribution of the SSC-associated HF-Doppler frequency shifts

Science.gov (United States)

Kikuchi, T.; Sugiuchi, H.; Ishimine, T.

1985-01-01

The HF-Doppler frequency shift observed at the storm's sudden commencement is composed of a frequency increase (+) and decrease (-), and classified into four types, SCF(+ -), SCF(- +), SCF(+) and SCF(-). Since the latter two types are special cases of the former two types, two different kinds of electrical field exist in the F region and cause the ExB drift motion of plasma. HUANG (1976) interpreted the frequency increase of SCF(+ -) as due to the westward induction electric field proportional to delta H/ delta t and the succeeding frequency decrease due to the eastward conduction electric field which produces ionospheric currents responsible for the magnetic increase on the ground. In spite of his success in interpreting the SCF(+ -), some other interpretations are needed for the explanation of the whole set of SCF's, particularly SCF(- +). Local time distributions of the SCF's are derived from 41 SCF's which are observed on the HF standard signal (JJY) as received in Okinawa (path length =1600 km) and Kokubunji (60 km). It is shown that the SCF(+ -) appears mainly during the day, whereas the SCF(- +) is observed during the night. The results indicate that the preliminary frequency shift (+) of SCF(+ -) and (-) of SCF(- +) is caused by a westward electric field in the dayside hemisphere, while by an eastward electric field in the nightside hemisphere. The main frequency shift (-) of SCF(+ -) and (+) of SCF(- +) is caused by the reversed electric field. Consequently, the preliminary frequency shift is caused by the dusk-to-dawn electric field, while the main frequency shift by the dawn-to-dusk electric field.

Spatially-explicit estimation of geographical representation in large-scale species distribution datasets.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalwij, Jesse M; Robertson, Mark P; Ronk, Argo; Zobel, Martin; Pärtel, Meelis

2014-01-01

Much ecological research relies on existing multispecies distribution datasets. Such datasets, however, can vary considerably in quality, extent, resolution or taxonomic coverage. We provide a framework for a spatially-explicit evaluation of geographical representation within large-scale species distribution datasets, using the comparison of an occurrence atlas with a range atlas dataset as a working example. Specifically, we compared occurrence maps for 3773 taxa from the widely-used Atlas Florae Europaeae (AFE) with digitised range maps for 2049 taxa of the lesser-known Atlas of North European Vascular Plants. We calculated the level of agreement at a 50-km spatial resolution using average latitudinal and longitudinal species range, and area of occupancy. Agreement in species distribution was calculated and mapped using Jaccard similarity index and a reduced major axis (RMA) regression analysis of species richness between the entire atlases (5221 taxa in total) and between co-occurring species (601 taxa). We found no difference in distribution ranges or in the area of occupancy frequency distribution, indicating that atlases were sufficiently overlapping for a valid comparison. The similarity index map showed high levels of agreement for central, western, and northern Europe. The RMA regression confirmed that geographical representation of AFE was low in areas with a sparse data recording history (e.g., Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine). For co-occurring species in south-eastern Europe, however, the Atlas of North European Vascular Plants showed remarkably higher richness estimations. Geographical representation of atlas data can be much more heterogeneous than often assumed. Level of agreement between datasets can be used to evaluate geographical representation within datasets. Merging atlases into a single dataset is worthwhile in spite of methodological differences, and helps to fill gaps in our knowledge of species distribution ranges. Species distribution

Northward shifts of the distributions of Spanish reptiles in association with climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno-Rueda, Gregorio; Pleguezuelos, Juan M; Pizarro, Manuel; Montori, Albert

2012-04-01

It is predicted that climate change will drive extinctions of some reptiles and that the number of these extinctions will depend on whether reptiles are able to change their distribution. Whether the latitudinal distribution of reptiles may change in response to increases in temperature is unknown. We used data on reptile distributions collected during the 20th century to analyze whether changes in the distributions of reptiles in Spain are associated with increases in temperature. We controlled for biases in sampling effort and found a mean, statistically significant, northward shift of the northern extent of reptile distributions of about 15.2 km from 1940-1975 to 1991-2005. The southern extent of the distributions did not change significantly. Thus, our results suggest that the latitudinal distributions of reptiles may be changing in response to climate change. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach

KAUST Repository

Chust, Guillem

2013-09-16

In the last decade, the analysis based on Continuous Plankton Recorder survey in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean detected one of the most striking examples of marine poleward migration related to sea warming. The main objective of this study is to verify the poleward shift of zooplankton species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. helgolandicus, C. hyperboreus) for which distributional changes have been recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean and to assess how much of this shift was triggered by sea warming, using Generalized Additive Models. To this end, the population gravity centre of observed data was compared with that of a series of simulation experiments: (i) a model using only climate factors (i.e. niche-based model) to simulate species habitat suitability, (ii) a model using only temporal and spatial terms to reconstruct the population distribution, and (iii) a model using both factors combined, using a subset of observations as independent dataset for validation. Our findings show that only C. finmarchicus had a consistent poleward shift, triggered by sea warming, estimated in 8.1 km per decade in the North Atlantic (16.5 per decade for the northeast), which is substantially lower than previous works at the assemblage level and restricted to the Northeast Atlantic. On the contrary, C. helgolandicus is expanding in all directions, although its northern distribution limit in the North Sea has shifted northward. Calanus glacialis and C. hyperboreus, which have the geographic centres of populations mainly in the NW Atlantic, showed a slight southward shift, probably responding to cool water penetrating southward in the Labrador Current. Our approach, supported by high model accuracy, shows its power in detecting species latitudinal shifts and identifying its causes, since the trend of occurrence observed data is influenced by the sampling frequency, which has progressively concentrated to lower latitudes with time. © 2013 © 2013 International Council for

High sensitivity detection of Plasmodium species reveals positive correlations between infections of different species, shifts in age distribution and reduced local variation in Papua New Guinea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smith Thomas A

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background When diagnosed by standard light microscopy (LM, malaria prevalence can vary significantly between sites, even at local scale, and mixed species infections are consistently less common than expect in areas co-endemic for Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium malariae. The development of a high-throughput molecular species diagnostic assay now enables routine PCR-based surveillance of malaria infections in large field and intervention studies, and improves resolution of species distribution within and between communities. Methods This study reports differences in the prevalence of infections with all four human malarial species and of mixed infections as diagnosed by LM and post-PCR ligase detection reaction – fluorescent microsphere (LDR-FMA assay in 15 villages in the central Sepik area of Papua New Guinea. Results Significantly higher rates of infection by P. falciparum, P. vivax, P. malariae and Plasmodium ovale were observed in LDR-FMA compared to LM diagnosis (p P. malariae (3.9% vs 13.4% and P. ovale (0.0% vs 4.8%. In contrast to LM diagnosis, which suggested a significant deficit of mixed species infections, a significant excess of mixed infections over expectation was detected by LDR-FMA (p P. falciparum (LM: 7–9 yrs 47.5%, LDR-FMA: 10–19 yrs 74.2% and P. vivax (LM: 4–6 yrs 24.2%, LDR-FMA: 7–9 yrs 50.9% but not P. malariae infections (10–19 yrs, LM: 7.7% LDR-FMA: 21.6%. Significant geographical variation in prevalence was found for all species (except for LM-diagnosed P. falciparum, with the extent of this variation greater in LDR-FMA than LM diagnosed infections (overall, 84.4% vs. 37.6%. Insecticide-treated bednet (ITN coverage was also the dominant factor linked to geographical differences in Plasmodium species infection prevalence explaining between 60.6% – 74.5% of this variation for LDR-FMA and 81.8% – 90.0% for LM (except P. falciparum, respectively. Conclusion The present study

ATLAS distributed computing operation shift teams experience during the discovery year and beginning of the long shutdown 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sedov, Alexey; Girolamo, Alessandro Di; Negri, Guidone; Sakamoto, Hiroshi; Schovancová, Jaroslava; Smirnov, Iouri; Vartapetian, Armen; Yu, Jaehoon

2014-01-01

ATLAS Distributed Computing Operation Shifts evolve to meet new requirements. New monitoring tools as well as operational changes lead to modifications in organization of shifts. In this paper we describe the structure of shifts, the roles of different shifts in ATLAS computing grid operation, the influence of a Higgs-like particle discovery on shift operation, the achievements in monitoring and automation that allowed extra focus on the experiment priority tasks, and the influence of the Long Shutdown 1 and operational changes related to the no beam period.

Factors influencing non-native tree species distribution in urban landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Wayne C. Zipperer

2010-01-01

Non-native species are presumed to be pervasive across the urban landscape. Yet, we actually know very little about their actual distribution. For this study, vegetation plot data from Syracuse, NY and Baltimore, MD were used to examine non-native tree species distribution in urban landscapes. Data were collected from remnant and emergent forest patches on upland sites...

A globally-distributed alien invasive species poses risks to United States imperiled species.

Science.gov (United States)

McClure, Meredith L; Burdett, Christopher L; Farnsworth, Matthew L; Sweeney, Steven J; Miller, Ryan S

2018-03-28

In the midst of Earth's sixth mass extinction event, non-native species are a driving factor in many imperiled species' declines. One of the most widespread and destructive alien invasive species in the world, wild pigs (Sus scrofa) threaten native species through predation, habitat destruction, competition, and disease transmission. We show that wild pigs co-occur with up to 87.2% of imperiled species in the contiguous U.S. identified as susceptible to their direct impacts, and we project increases in both the number of species at risk and the geographic extent of risks by 2025. Wild pigs may therefore present a severe threat to U.S. imperiled species, with serious implications for management of at-risk species throughout wild pigs' global distribution. We offer guidance for efficient allocation of research effort and conservation resources across species and regions using a simple approach that can be applied to wild pigs and other alien invasive species globally.

Continental-wide distribution of crayfish species in Europe: update and maps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kouba A.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Recently published astacological studies substantially improved available data on distribution of crayfish in various European regions. At the same time, spread of invasive species has been recorded, additional non-indigenous species became established in various countries, and losses of populations of native species due to crayfish plague and other negative factors were observed. We overview recent advances in this knowledge, and provide updated colour maps of the distribution of all crayfish species present in Europe. These maps are originally based on the data from the Atlas of Crayfish in Europe published in 2006 as a result of the CRAYNET project, and were further updated from more recently published reports, grey literature, and especially thanks to contributions and feedback of over 70 specialists from 32 countries. Separate maps are available for all indigenous crayfish species in Europe as well as for three most widespread non-indigenous crayfish species. Additionally, two maps give locations of known findings of crayfish species introduced to Europe after 1980. These newly established alien species have so far restricted distributions; however, the frequency of recent reports suggests that findings of such species resulting from releases of aquarium pets will further increase.

Plant species distribution along environmental gradient: do belowground interactions with fungi matter?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Loïc ePellissier

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The distribution of plants along environmental gradients is constrained by abiotic and biotic factors. Cumulative evidence attests of the impact of abiotic factors on plant distributions, but only few studies discuss the role of belowground communities. Soil fungi, in particular, are thought to play an important role in how plant species assemble locally into communities. We first review existing evidence, and then test the effect of the number of soil fungal operational taxonomic units (OTUs on plant species distributions using a recently collected dataset of plant and metagenomic information on soil fungi in the Western Swiss Alps. Using species distribution models, we investigated whether the distribution of individual plant species is correlated to the number of OTUs of two important soil fungal classes known to interact with plants: the Glomeromycetes, that are obligatory symbionts of plants, and the Agaricomycetes, that may be facultative plant symbionts, pathogens, or wood decayers. We show that including the fungal richness information in the models of plant species distributions improves predictive accuracy. Number of fungal OTUs is especially correlated to the distribution of high elevation plant species. We suggest that high elevation soil show greater variation in fungal assemblages that may in turn impact plant turnover among communities. We finally discuss how to move beyond correlative analyses, through the design of field experiments manipulating plant and fungal communities along environmental gradients.

Modeling the Distribution of Rare or Cryptic Bird Species of Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tsai-Yu Wu

2012-12-01

Full Text Available For the study of the macroecology and conservation of Taiwan’s birds, there was an urgent need to develop distribution models of bird species whose distribution had never before been modeled. Therefore, we here model the distributions of 27 mostly rare and cryptic breeding bird species using a statistical approach which has been shown to be especially reliable for modeling species with a low sample size of presence localities, namely the maximum entropy (Maxent modeling technique. For this purpose, we began with a dedicated attempt to collate as much high-quality distributional data as possible, assembling databases from several scientific reports, contacting individual data recorders and searching publicly accessible database, the internet and the available literature. This effort resulted in 2022 grid cells of 1 × 1 km size being associated with a presence record for one of the 27 species. These records and 10 pre-selected environmental variables were then used to model each species’ probability distribution which we show here with all grid cells below the lowest presence threshold being converted to zeros. We then in detail discuss the interpretation and applicability of these distributions, whereby we pay close attention to habitat requirements, the intactness and fragmentation of their habitat, the general detectability of the species and data reliability. This study is another one in an ongoing series of studies which highlight the usefulness of using large electronic databases and modern analytical methods to help with the monitoring and assessment of Taiwan’s bird species.

BAYESIAN MODELS FOR SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELLING WITH ONLY-PRESENCE RECORDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bartolo de Jesús Villar-Hernández

2015-08-01

Full Text Available One of the central issues in ecology is the study of geographical distribution of species of flora and fauna through Species Distribution Models (SDM. Recently, scientific interest has focused on presence-only records. Two recent approaches have been proposed for this problem: a model based on maximum likelihood method (Maxlike and an inhomogeneous poisson process model (IPP. In this paper we discussed two bayesian approaches called MaxBayes and IPPBayes based on Maxlike and IPP model, respectively. To illustrate these proposals, we implemented two study examples: (1 both models were implemented on a simulated dataset, and (2 we modeled the potencial distribution of genus Dalea in the Tehuacan-Cuicatlán biosphere reserve with both models, the results was compared with that of Maxent. The results show that both models, MaxBayes and IPPBayes, are viable alternatives when species distribution are modeled with only-presence records. For simulated dataset, MaxBayes achieved prevalence estimation, even when the number of records was small. In the real dataset example, both models predict similar potential distributions like Maxent does. Â

Abundance, distribution and species composition of fish larvae in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

improving our knowledge of the abundance, distribution and species diversity ... banks as well as in the mid-channel, thus eliminating any bias that might have .... cond method (Table 2) may bias the importance of a single species due to one, ...

Distributed energy resources management using plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as a fuel-shifting demand response resource

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago; Soares, J.

2015-01-01

In the smart grids context, distributed energy resources management plays an important role in the power systems' operation. Battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles should be important resources in the future distribution networks operation. Therefore, it is important...... to develop adequate methodologies to schedule the electric vehicles' charge and discharge processes, avoiding network congestions and providing ancillary services.This paper proposes the participation of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in fuel shifting demand response programs. Two services are proposed......, namely the fuel shifting and the fuel discharging. The fuel shifting program consists in replacing the electric energy by fossil fuels in plug-in hybrid electric vehicles daily trips, and the fuel discharge program consists in use of their internal combustion engine to generate electricity injecting...

Determining the factors affecting the distribution of Muscari latifolium, an endemic plant of Turkey, and a mapping species distribution model.

Science.gov (United States)

Yilmaz, Hatice; Yilmaz, Osman Yalçın; Akyüz, Yaşar Feyza

2017-02-01

Species distribution modeling was used to determine factors among the large predictor candidate data set that affect the distribution of Muscari latifolium , an endemic bulbous plant species of Turkey, to quantify the relative importance of each factor and make a potential spatial distribution map of M. latifolium . Models were built using the Boosted Regression Trees method based on 35 presence and 70 absence records obtained through field sampling in the Gönen Dam watershed area of the Kazdağı Mountains in West Anatolia. Large candidate variables of monthly and seasonal climate, fine-scale land surface, and geologic and biotic variables were simplified using a BRT simplifying procedure. Analyses performed on these resources, direct and indirect variables showed that there were 14 main factors that influence the species' distribution. Five of the 14 most important variables influencing the distribution of the species are bedrock type, Quercus cerris density, precipitation during the wettest month, Pinus nigra density, and northness. These variables account for approximately 60% of the relative importance for determining the distribution of the species. Prediction performance was assessed by 10 random subsample data sets and gave a maximum the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.93 and an average AUC value of 0.8. This study provides a significant contribution to the knowledge of the habitat requirements and ecological characteristics of this species. The distribution of this species is explained by a combination of biotic and abiotic factors. Hence, using biotic interaction and fine-scale land surface variables in species distribution models improved the accuracy and precision of the model. The knowledge of the relationships between distribution patterns and environmental factors and biotic interaction of M. latifolium can help develop a management and conservation strategy for this species.

Latitudinal gradients in the productivity of European migrant warblers have not shifted northwards during a period of climate change.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eglington, S; Juliard, R; Gargallo, G; Van der Jeugd, Henk; Pearce Higgins, J; Baillie, S.R.; Robinson, R.A.

2015-01-01

Aim As global temperatures have increased, many species distributions have exhibited polewards shifts, a trend that is predicted to continue in future decades. However, the mechanisms underlying such shifts are not well understood. Here we quantify the impact of large-scale variation in temperature

Incorporating climate change and exotic species into forecasts of riparian forest distribution.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dana H Ikeda

Full Text Available We examined the impact climate change (CC will have on the availability of climatically suitable habitat for three native and one exotic riparian species. Due to its increasing prevalence in arid regions throughout the western US, we predicted that an exotic species, Tamarix, would have the greatest increase in suitable habitat relative to native counterparts under CC. We used an ecological niche model to predict range shifts of Populus fremontii, Salix gooddingii, Salix exigua and Tamarix, from present day to 2080s, under five general circulation models and one climate change scenario (A1B. Four major findings emerged. 1 Contrary to our original hypothesis, P. fremontii is projected to have the greatest increase in suitable habitat under CC, followed closely by Tamarix. 2 Of the native species, S. gooddingii and S. exigua showed the greatest loss in predicted suitable habitat due to CC. 3 Nearly 80 percent of future P. fremontii and Salix habitat is predicted to be affected by either CC or Tamarix by the 2080s. 4 By the 2080s, 20 percent of S. gooddingii habitat is projected to be affected by both Tamarix and CC concurrently, followed by S. exigua (19 percent and P. fremontii (13 percent. In summary, while climate change alone will negatively impact both native willow species, Tamarix is likely to affect a larger portion of all three native species' distributions. We discuss these and other results in the context of prioritizing restoration and conservation efforts to optimize future productivity and biodiversity. As we are accounting for only direct effects of CC and Tamarix on native habitat, we present a possible hierarchy of effects- from the direct to the indirect- and discuss the potential for the indirect to outweigh the direct effects. Our results highlight the need to account for simultaneous challenges in the face of CC.

Security of differential-phase-shift quantum key distribution against individual attacks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waks, Edo; Takesue, Hiroki; Yamamoto, Yoshihisa

2006-01-01

We derive a proof of security for the differential-phase-shift quantum key distribution protocol under the assumption that Eve is restricted to individual attacks. The security proof is derived by bounding the average collision probability, which leads directly to a bound on Eve's mutual information on the final key. The security proof applies to realistic sources based on pulsed coherent light. We then compare individual attacks to sequential attacks and show that individual attacks are more powerful

Fish species composition, density-distribution patterns, and impingement during upwelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spigarelli, S.A.; Sharma, R.K.

1975-01-01

The effects of cooling system intakes and discharges on Lake Michigan fishes are highly dependent on inshore species composition and spatial distribution which, in turn, are affected by natural hydrological conditions. Significant (5 to 10 C) short-term decreases in water temperature (due to upwelling) could cause cold shock in fish equilibrated to either ambient or plume temperatures; substantial changes in distribution due to avoidance or attraction responses; and resultant changes in susceptibility to impingement. The objectives of this study are to characterize the changes in fish species composition, density, and thermal distribution as a result of natural upwellings, and to relate these factors to intake and discharge effects. Day and night sampling was conducted in ambient (reference) and thermal plume waters near the Zion Nuclear Plant on four occasions between 17 July and 11 September 1975. Density-distribution patterns and species composition of fish were determined by means of gill nets, bottom trawls, seines, and a sonic fish locater

[Effects of sampling plot number on tree species distribution prediction under climate change].

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yu; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Li, Xiao-Na; Luo, Xu

2013-05-01

Based on the neutral landscapes under different degrees of landscape fragmentation, this paper studied the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale under climate change. The tree species distribution was predicted by the coupled modeling approach which linked an ecosystem process model with a forest landscape model, and three contingent scenarios and one reference scenario of sampling plot numbers were assumed. The differences between the three scenarios and the reference scenario under different degrees of landscape fragmentation were tested. The results indicated that the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution depended on the tree species life history attributes. For the generalist species, the prediction of their distribution at landscape scale needed more plots. Except for the extreme specialist, landscape fragmentation degree also affected the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction. With the increase of simulation period, the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale could be changed. For generalist species, more plots are needed for the long-term simulation.

Computing shifts to monitor ATLAS distributed computing infrastructure and operations

CERN Document Server

AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00068610; The ATLAS collaboration; Barberis, Dario; Crepe-Renaudin, Sabine Chrystel; De, Kaushik; Fassi, Farida; Stradling, Alden; Svatos, Michal; Vartapetian, Armen; Wolters, Helmut

2017-01-01

The ATLAS Distributed Computing (ADC) group established a new Computing Run Coordinator (CRC) shift at the start of LHC Run 2 in 2015. The main goal was to rely on a person with a good overview of the ADC activities to ease the ADC experts’ workload. The CRC shifter keeps track of ADC tasks related to their fields of expertise and responsibility. At the same time, the shifter maintains a global view of the day-to-day operations of the ADC system. During Run 1, this task was accomplished by a person of the expert team called the ADC Manager on Duty (AMOD), a position that was removed during the shutdown period due to the reduced number and availability of ADC experts foreseen for Run 2. The CRC position was proposed to cover some of the AMODs former functions, while allowing more people involved in computing to participate. In this way, CRC shifters help with the training of future ADC experts. The CRC shifters coordinate daily ADC shift operations, including tracking open issues, reporting, and representing...

Computing shifts to monitor ATLAS distributed computing infrastructure and operations

CERN Document Server

Adam Bourdarios, Claire; The ATLAS collaboration

2016-01-01

The ATLAS Distributed Computing (ADC) group established a new Computing Run Coordinator (CRC) shift at the start of LHC Run2 in 2015. The main goal was to rely on a person with a good overview of the ADC activities to ease the ADC experts' workload. The CRC shifter keeps track of ADC tasks related to their fields of expertise and responsibility. At the same time, the shifter maintains a global view of the day-to-day operations of the ADC system. During Run1, this task was accomplished by the ADC Manager on Duty (AMOD), a position that was removed during the shutdown period due to the reduced number and availability of ADC experts foreseen for Run2. The CRC position was proposed to cover some of the AMOD’s former functions, while allowing more people involved in computing to participate. In this way, CRC shifters help train future ADC experts. The CRC shifters coordinate daily ADC shift operations, including tracking open issues, reporting, and representing ADC in relevant meetings. The CRC also facilitates ...

Is the climate right for pleistocene rewilding? Using species distribution models to extrapolate climatic suitability for mammals across continents.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Orien M W Richmond

Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs are increasingly used for extrapolation, or predicting suitable regions for species under new geographic or temporal scenarios. However, SDM predictions may be prone to errors if species are not at equilibrium with climatic conditions in the current range and if training samples are not representative. Here the controversial "Pleistocene rewilding" proposal was used as a novel example to address some of the challenges of extrapolating modeled species-climate relationships outside of current ranges. Climatic suitability for three proposed proxy species (Asian elephant, African cheetah and African lion was extrapolated to the American southwest and Great Plains using Maxent, a machine-learning species distribution model. Similar models were fit for Oryx gazella, a species native to Africa that has naturalized in North America, to test model predictions. To overcome biases introduced by contracted modern ranges and limited occurrence data, random pseudo-presence points generated from modern and historical ranges were used for model training. For all species except the oryx, models of climatic suitability fit to training data from historical ranges produced larger areas of predicted suitability in North America than models fit to training data from modern ranges. Four naturalized oryx populations in the American southwest were correctly predicted with a generous model threshold, but none of these locations were predicted with a more stringent threshold. In general, the northern Great Plains had low climatic suitability for all focal species and scenarios considered, while portions of the southern Great Plains and American southwest had low to intermediate suitability for some species in some scenarios. The results suggest that the use of historical, in addition to modern, range information and randomly sampled pseudo-presence points may improve model accuracy. This has implications for modeling range shifts of

Expansion of Protected Areas under Climate Change: An Example of Mountainous Tree Species in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Chih Lin

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Tree species in mountainous areas are expected to shift their distribution upward in elevation in response to climate change, calling for a potential redesign of existing protected areas. This study aims to predict whether or not the distributions of two high-mountain tree species, Abies (Abies kawakamii and Tsuga (Tsuga chinensis var. formosana, will significantly shift upward due to temperature change, and whether current protected areas will be suitable for conserving these species. Future temperature change was projected for 15 different future scenarios produced from five global climate models. Shifts in Abies and Tsuga distributions were then predicted through the use of species distribution models (SDMs which included occurrence data of Abies and Tsuga, as well as seasonal temperature, and elevation. The 25 km × 25 km downscaled General Circulation Model (GCMs data for 2020–2039 produced by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform was adopted in this study. Habitat suitability in the study area was calculated using maximum entropy model under different climatic scenarios. A bootstrap method was applied to assess the parameter uncertainty of the maximum entropy model. In comparison to the baseline projection, we found that there are significant differences in suitable habitat distributions for Abies and Tsuga under seven of the 15 scenarios. The results suggest that mountainous ecosystems will be substantially impacted by climate change. We also found that the uncertainty originating from GCMs and the parameters of the SDM contribute most to the overall level of variability in species distributions. Finally, based on the uncertainty analysis and the shift in habitat suitability, we applied systematic conservation planning approaches to identify suitable areas to add to Taiwan’s protected area network.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille

2015-12-01

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium

Meta-analysis of the effect of global warming on local species richness

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arets, E.J.M.M.; Verwer, C.C.; Alkemade, J.R.M.

2014-01-01

We carried out a systematic review of global and regional modelling studies in which shifts in species distributions under climate change were modelled. These studies included a large range of species groups and biomes worldwide. Based on the model results we calculated the fraction of species that

One Core Phase Shifting Transformer for Control of the Power Flow Distribution in Electric Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Golub I.V.

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the variant of phase shifting transformer that is made, unlike from traditional technology, on the basis of only one magnetic core. The paper describes the methodology related to the analysis of operation modes of device and its components. Additionally it presents a mathematical model of device with determines the relationship between input and output electric quantities as well as own longitudinal and transverse parameters of an equivalent circuit of phase shifting transformer (PST. Proposed configuration of PST is interesting from an economic and operational consideration; enable continuous control of power flow distribution in electric networks as a result of regulation a phase shift angle between input and output voltages of device.

Distribution of metal and adsorbed guest species in zeolites

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chmelka, B.F.

1989-12-01

Because of their high internal surface areas and molecular-size cavity dimensions, zeolites are used widely as catalysts, shape- selective supports, or adsorbents in a variety of important chemical processes. For metal-catalyzed reactions, active metal species must be dispersed to sites within the zeolite pores that are accessible to diffusing reactant molecules. The distribution of the metal, together with transport and adsorption of reactant molecules in zeolite powders, are crucial to ultimate catalyst performance. The nature of the metal or adsorbed guest distribution is known, however, to be dramatically dependent upon preparatory conditions. Our objective is to understand, at the molecular level, how preparatory treatments influence the distribution of guest species in zeolites, in order that macroscopic adsorption and reaction properties of these materials may be better understood. The sensitivity of xenon to its adsorption environment makes {sup 129}Xe NMR spectroscopy an important diagnostic probe of metal clustering and adsorbate distribution processes in zeolites. The utility of {sup 129}Xe NMR depends on the mobility of the xenon atoms within the zeolite-guest system, together with the length scale of the sample heterogeneity being studied. In large pore zeolites containing dispersed guest species, such as Pt--NaY, {sup 129}Xe NMR is insensitive to fine structural details at room temperature.

Distribution of metal and adsorbed guest species in zeolites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chmelka, B.F.

1989-12-01

Because of their high internal surface areas and molecular-size cavity dimensions, zeolites are used widely as catalysts, shape- selective supports, or adsorbents in a variety of important chemical processes. For metal-catalyzed reactions, active metal species must be dispersed to sites within the zeolite pores that are accessible to diffusing reactant molecules. The distribution of the metal, together with transport and adsorption of reactant molecules in zeolite powders, are crucial to ultimate catalyst performance. The nature of the metal or adsorbed guest distribution is known, however, to be dramatically dependent upon preparatory conditions. Our objective is to understand, at the molecular level, how preparatory treatments influence the distribution of guest species in zeolites, in order that macroscopic adsorption and reaction properties of these materials may be better understood. The sensitivity of xenon to its adsorption environment makes 129 Xe NMR spectroscopy an important diagnostic probe of metal clustering and adsorbate distribution processes in zeolites. The utility of 129 Xe NMR depends on the mobility of the xenon atoms within the zeolite-guest system, together with the length scale of the sample heterogeneity being studied. In large pore zeolites containing dispersed guest species, such as Pt--NaY, 129 Xe NMR is insensitive to fine structural details at room temperature

Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador

Science.gov (United States)

Hildebrandt, Patrick; Cueva, Jorge; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Stimm, Bernd; Günter, Sven

2017-01-01

Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium. PMID:29267357

Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador.

Science.gov (United States)

Manchego, Carlos E; Hildebrandt, Patrick; Cueva, Jorge; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Stimm, Bernd; Günter, Sven

2017-01-01

Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium.

Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

Science.gov (United States)

Clement, Matthew J.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Ziolkowski, David J.

2016-01-01

There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these assumptions, to relate climate data to distributional shifts of Louisiana Waterthrush in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. We summarized these shifts with indices of range size and position and compared them to the same indices obtained using more basic modeling approaches. Detection rates during point counts in BBS surveys were low, and models that ignored imperfect detection severely underestimated the proportion of area occupied and slightly overestimated mean latitude. Static models indicated Louisiana Waterthrush distribution was most closely associated with moderate temperatures, while dynamic occupancy models indicated that initial occupancy was associated with diurnal temperature ranges and colonization of sites was associated with moderate precipitation. Overall, the proportion of area occupied and mean latitude changed little during the 1997–2013 study period. Near-term forecasts of species distribution generated by dynamic models were more similar to subsequently observed distributions than forecasts from static models. Occupancy models incorporating a finite mixture model on detection – a new extension to correlated detection occupancy models – were better supported and may reduce bias associated with detection heterogeneity. We argue that replacing phenomenological static models with more mechanistic dynamic models can improve projections of future species distributions. In turn, better projections can improve biodiversity forecasts, management decisions, and understanding of global change biology.

The prevalence and distribution of Fusarium species in Norwegian cereals: a survey

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kosiak, B.; Torp, M.; Skjerve, E.

2003-01-01

the regions. A total of 695 grain samples were analysed. The amount of Fusarium infection varied with cereal species and region of origin. The most frequently isolated Fusarium spp. from all samples were F. avenaceum, F. poae, F. tricinctum and F. culmorum. Other important toxigenic Fusarium spp. were F......In the period 1994-1996 a post-harvest survey was conducted in wheat, barley and oats to assess the occurrence and geographic distribution of Fusarium species in Norwegian cereals. The number of samples investigated was adjusted proportionally to the production of each cereal species within...... and F. culmorum demonstrated in this study , corresponded to previously reported DON-distribution, although DON seems to be produced by different species in different regions. Distribution of the isolated Fusarium species and comparison between cereals and locations are discussed....

Analysis of the differential-phase-shift-keying protocol in the quantum-key-distribution system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rong-Zhen, Jiao; Chen-Xu, Feng; Hai-Qiang, Ma

2009-01-01

The analysis is based on the error rate and the secure communication rate as functions of distance for three quantum-key-distribution (QKD) protocols: the Bennett–Brassard 1984, the Bennett–Brassard–Mermin 1992, and the coherent differential-phase-shift keying (DPSK) protocols. We consider the secure communication rate of the DPSK protocol against an arbitrary individual attack, including the most commonly considered intercept-resend and photon-number splitting attacks, and concluded that the simple and efficient differential-phase-shift-keying protocol allows for more than 200 km of secure communication distance with high communication rates. (general)

Characterization of Quercus species distributed in Jordan using ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Characterization of Quercus species distributed in Jordan using morphological and molecular markers. Mohammad S Jawarneh, Mohammad H Brake, Riyadh Muhaidat, Hussein M Migdadi, Jamil N Lahham, Ahmad Ali El-Oqlah ...

Distribution of Vulpia species (Poaceae in Poland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ludwik Frey

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The distribution of four species of the genus Vulpia [V. myuros (L. C.C. Gmel., V. bromoides (L. S.F. Gray, V. ciliata Dumort. and V. geniculata (L. Link] reported in Poland has been studied. Currently, V. myuros and especially V. bromoides are very rare species, and their greatest concentration can be found only in the Lower Silesia region. The number of their localities decreased after 1950 and it seems resonable to include both species in the "red list" of threatened plants in Poland: V. myuros in the EN category, V. bromoides in the CR category. V. ciliata and V. geniculata are very rare ephemerophytes and their localities not confirmed during ca 60 years are of historical interest only.

Distribution Modeling of three screwworm species in the ecologically diverse landscape of North West Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaidi, Farrah; Fatima, Syeda Hira; Khisroon, Muhammad; Gul, Ayesha

2016-10-01

North West Pakistan (NWP) is characterized by four eco-zones: Northern Montane Region, North Western Hills, Submontane Region and Indus Plains. Present study identified 1037 cases of traumatic myiasis in the region during 2012-2015. Screw worm larvae were classified as 12 species: Chrysomya bezziana (Villeneuve), Chryomya megacephala (Fabricius), Chrysomya rufifacies (Macquart), Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann), Lucilia sericata (Meigen), Lucilia illustris (Meigen), Lucilia porphyrina (Walker), Hemipyrellia ligguriens (Wiedemann), Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy), Wohlfahrtia magnifica (Schiner), Sarcophaga crassipalpalis (Macquart), Sarchophaga species. Among these C. bezziana, L. cuprina and W. magnifica with approximately 882 case reports were the principal agents of traumatic myiasis. The species W. magnifica is a first report from Pakistan. In order to investigate spatial distribution of these dominant species we used MaxEnt niche model. Our results revealed a well-established occurrence of C. bezziana and L. cuprina in the four eco-regions while W. magnifica is currently contained in the Submontane Region. Several hot spot areas of infestation were detected all characterized by high human population density showing synanthropic nature of these species. Wohlfahrtia magnifica was excluded from Northern Montane Region with severe winters and Southern Indus Plains with harsh summers revealing that invasive species are initially sensitive to extreme of temperatures. Presence of L. cuprina in the wet areas of North Humid Belt (Maximum annual precipitation: 1641mm) depicted a moisture preference of the species. In perspective of changing climate and future predictions of severe events such as droughts and flooding in NWP, W. magnifica can potentially alter the species composition. Considering these findings in an eco-geographically dynamic region of Pakistan we predict that two factors (1) Growing human population (2) Climatic conditions, equally contribute to range

Past, present and future distributions of an Iberian Endemic, Lepus granatensis: ecological and evolutionary clues from species distribution models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pelayo Acevedo

Full Text Available The application of species distribution models (SDMs in ecology and conservation biology is increasing and assuming an important role, mainly because they can be used to hindcast past and predict current and future species distributions. However, the accuracy of SDMs depends on the quality of the data and on appropriate theoretical frameworks. In this study, comprehensive data on the current distribution of the Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis were used to i determine the species' ecogeographical constraints, ii hindcast a climatic model for the last glacial maximum (LGM, relating it to inferences derived from molecular studies, and iii calibrate a model to assess the species future distribution trends (up to 2080. Our results showed that the climatic factor (in its pure effect and when it is combined with the land-cover factor is the most important descriptor of the current distribution of the Iberian hare. In addition, the model's output was a reliable index of the local probability of species occurrence, which is a valuable tool to guide species management decisions and conservation planning. Climatic potential obtained for the LGM was combined with molecular data and the results suggest that several glacial refugia may have existed for the species within the major Iberian refugium. Finally, a high probability of occurrence of the Iberian hare in the current species range and a northward expansion were predicted for future. Given its current environmental envelope and evolutionary history, we discuss the macroecology of the Iberian hare and its sensitivity to climate change.

Past, present and future distributions of an Iberian Endemic, Lepus granatensis: ecological and evolutionary clues from species distribution models.

Science.gov (United States)

Acevedo, Pelayo; Melo-Ferreira, José; Real, Raimundo; Alves, Paulo Célio

2012-01-01

The application of species distribution models (SDMs) in ecology and conservation biology is increasing and assuming an important role, mainly because they can be used to hindcast past and predict current and future species distributions. However, the accuracy of SDMs depends on the quality of the data and on appropriate theoretical frameworks. In this study, comprehensive data on the current distribution of the Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis) were used to i) determine the species' ecogeographical constraints, ii) hindcast a climatic model for the last glacial maximum (LGM), relating it to inferences derived from molecular studies, and iii) calibrate a model to assess the species future distribution trends (up to 2080). Our results showed that the climatic factor (in its pure effect and when it is combined with the land-cover factor) is the most important descriptor of the current distribution of the Iberian hare. In addition, the model's output was a reliable index of the local probability of species occurrence, which is a valuable tool to guide species management decisions and conservation planning. Climatic potential obtained for the LGM was combined with molecular data and the results suggest that several glacial refugia may have existed for the species within the major Iberian refugium. Finally, a high probability of occurrence of the Iberian hare in the current species range and a northward expansion were predicted for future. Given its current environmental envelope and evolutionary history, we discuss the macroecology of the Iberian hare and its sensitivity to climate change.

Implications of movement for species distribution models - Rethinking environmental data tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruneel, Stijn; Gobeyn, Sacha; Verhelst, Pieterjan; Reubens, Jan; Moens, Tom; Goethals, Peter

2018-07-01

Movement is considered an essential process in shaping the distributions of species. Nevertheless, most species distribution models (SDMs) still focus solely on environment-species relationships to predict the occurrence of species. Furthermore, the currently used indirect estimates of movement allow to assess habitat accessibility, but do not provide an accurate description of movement. Better proxies of movement are needed to assess the dispersal potential of individual species and to gain a more practical insight in the interconnectivity of communities. Telemetry techniques are rapidly evolving and highly capable to provide explicit descriptions of movement, but their usefulness for SDMs will mainly depend on the ability of these models to deal with hitherto unconsidered ecological processes. More specifically, the integration of movement is likely to affect the environmental data requirements as the connection between environmental and biological data is crucial to provide reliable results. Mobility implies the occupancy of a continuum of space, hence an adequate representation of both geographical and environmental space is paramount to study mobile species distributions. In this context, environmental models, remote sensing techniques and animal-borne environmental sensors are discussed as potential techniques to obtain suitable environmental data. In order to provide an in-depth review of the aforementioned methods, we have chosen to use the modelling of fish distributions as a case study. The high mobility of fish and the often highly variable nature of the aquatic environment generally complicate model development, making it an adequate subject for research. Furthermore, insight into the distribution of fish is of great interest for fish stock assessments and water management worldwide, underlining its practical relevance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Map of Life - A Dashboard for Monitoring Planetary Species Distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Jetz, W.

2016-12-01

Geographic information about biodiversity is vital for understanding the many services nature provides and their potential changes, yet remains unreliable and often insufficient. By integrating a wide range of knowledge about species distributions and their dynamics over time, Map of Life supports global biodiversity education, monitoring, research and decision-making. Built on a scalable web platform geared for large biodiversity and environmental data, Map of Life endeavors provides species range information globally and species lists for any area. With data and technology provided by NASA and Google Earth Engine, tools under development use remote sensing-based environmental layers to enable on-the-fly predictions of species distributions, range changes, and early warning signals for threatened species. The ultimate vision is a globally connected, collaborative knowledge- and tool-base for regional and local biodiversity decision-making, education, monitoring, and projection. For currently available tools, more information and to follow progress, go to MOL.org.

Distribution and community structure of ichthyoplankton in Laguna Madre seagrass meadows: Potential impact of seagrass species change

Science.gov (United States)

Tolan, J.M.; Holt, S.A.; Onuf, C.P.

1997-01-01

Seasonal ichthyoplankton surveys were made in the lower Laguna Madre, Texas, to compare the relative utilization of various nursery habitats (shoal grass, Halodule wrightii; manatee grass, Syringodium filiforme;, and unvegetated sand bottom) for both estuarine and offshore-spawned larvae. The species composition and abundance of fish larvae were determined for each habitat type at six locations in the bay. Pushnet ichthyoplankton sampling resulted in 296 total collections, yielding 107,463 fishes representing 55 species in 24 families. A broad spectrum of both the biotic and physical habitat parameters were examined to link the dispersion and distribution of both pre-settlement and post-settlement larvae to the utilization of shallow seagrass habitats. Sample sites were grouped by cluster analysis (Ward's minimum variance method) according to the similarity of their fish assemblages and subsequently examined with a multiple discriminant function analysis to identify important environmental variables. Abiotic environmental factors were most influential in defining groups for samples dominated by early larvae, whereas measures of seagrass complexity defined groups dominated by older larvae and juveniles. Juvenile-stage individuals showed clear habitat preference, with the more shallow Halodule wrightii being the habitat of choice, whereas early larvae of most species were widely distributed over all habitats. As a result of the recent shift of dominance from Halodule wrightii to Syringodium filiforme, overall reductions in the quality of nursery habitat for fishes in the lower Laguna Madre are projected.

Are plant species able to keep pace with the rapidly changing climate?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah Cunze

Full Text Available Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs. Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM. With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat - epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion - endozoochory considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species.

VEGETATIVE MORPHOLOGY FOR SPECIES IDENTIFICATION OF TROPICAL TREES: FAMILY DISTRIBUTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Hargreaves

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Tree specimens from the ESAL herbarium of the Universidade Federal de Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil, were describedby vegetative characteristics using CARipé, a Microsoft Access database application specially developed for this study. Only onespecimen per species was usually described. Thus, 2 observers described 567 herbarium species as a base to test methods ofidentification as part of a larger study. The present work formed part of that study and provides information on the distribution of22 vegetative characters among 16 families having 10 or more species described. The characters are discussed. The study foundmarked differences, even discontinuities, of distributions of characters between those families. Therefore it should be possible toincorporate phylogenetic relationships into the identification process.

Species Distribution Modelling of Aedes aegypti in two dengue-endemic regions of Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Fatima, Syeda Hira; Atif, Salman; Rasheed, Syed Basit; Zaidi, Farrah; Hussain, Ejaz

2016-03-01

Statistical tools are effectively used to determine the distribution of mosquitoes and to make ecological inferences about the vector-borne disease dynamics. In this study, we utilised species distribution models to understand spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti in two dengue-prevalent regions of Pakistan, Lahore and Swat. Species distribution models can potentially indicate the probability of suitability of Ae. aegypti once introduced to new regions like Swat, where invasion of this species is a recent phenomenon. The distribution of Ae. aegypti was determined by applying the MaxEnt algorithm on a set of potential environmental factors and species sample records. The ecological dependency of species on each environmental variable was analysed using response curves. We quantified the statistical performance of the models based on accuracy assessment and spatial predictions. Our results suggest that Ae. aegypti is widely distributed in Lahore. Human population density and urban infrastructure are primarily responsible for greater probability of mosquito occurrence in this region. In Swat, Ae. aegypti has clumped distribution, where urban patches provide refuge to the species in an otherwise hostile heterogeneous environment and road networks are assumed to have facilitated in passive-mediated dispersal of species. In Pakistan, Ae. aegypti is expanding its range northwards; this could be associated with rapid urbanisation, trade and travel. The main implication of this expansion is that more people are at risk of dengue fever in the northern highlands of Pakistan. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the line broadening and shifts of Al laser produced plasma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

She Yongbo; Chen Yunfang; Zhao Ruwen; Zhang Xiulan; Pan Guangyan

1985-01-01

We have studied the spatially resolved spectra of Al laser produced plasma. In the range from 2300-4000A about thirty emission lines have been observed belonging to the neutral, singly and doubly ionized Al species. Their line widths and shifts vary with the distance between the plasma and the Al-target surface. Five lines from differently ionized species have been examined with the aid of the theoretical formula given by Griem, and the distribution of electron density near the target has been determined semi-empirically. We found that the line broadening of the different species coincided well with each other, and could be used as a measure of electron density in the range from 1.10 17 to 5.10 18 cm -3 . But the coincidence between the line shifts seems not so good, especially for the lines of 3587 A of Al II and 3610 A of Al III. It remains to be further investigated

Drought tolerance of tropical tree species : functional traits, trade-offs and species distribution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Markesteijn, L.

2010-01-01

KEY-WORDS:
Bolivia, drought tolerance, shade tolerance, functional traits, trade-offs, ecophysiology, species distribution
Tropical forests occur under rainfall regimes that vary greatly in the rainfall pattern and frequency and intensity of drought. Consequently water availability is

Climate Change and Genetic Structure of Leading Edge and Rear End Populations in a Northwards Shifting Marine Fish Species, the Corkwing Wrasse (Symphodus melops).

Science.gov (United States)

Knutsen, Halvor; Jorde, Per Erik; Gonzalez, Enrique Blanco; Robalo, Joana; Albretsen, Jon; Almada, Vitor

2013-01-01

One mechanism by which marine organisms may respond to climate shifts is range shifts. The corkwing wrasse (Symphodus melops) is a temperate fish species, inhabiting the coasts of Europe, that show strong indications of current as well as historical (ice-age) range shifts towards the north. Nine neutral microsatellite DNA markers were screened to study genetic signatures and spatial population structure over the entire geographic and thermal gradient of the species from Portugal to Norway. A major genetic break (F ST  = 0.159 average among pairs) was identified between Scandinavian and more southern populations, with a marked reduction (30% or more) in levels of genetic variability in Scandinavia. The break is probably related to bottleneck(s) associated with post-glacial colonization of the Scandinavian coasts, and indicates a lack of present gene flow across the North Sea. The lack of gene flow can most likely be attributed to the species' need for rocky substrate for nesting and a relatively short pelagic larval phase, limiting dispersal by ocean currents. These findings demonstrate that long-distance dispersal may be severely limited in the corkwing wrasse, and that successful range-shifts following present climate change may be problematic for this and other species with limited dispersal abilities, even in the seemingly continuous marine environment.

Species Distribution Modelling: Contrasting presence-only models with plot abundance data.

Science.gov (United States)

Gomes, Vitor H F; IJff, Stéphanie D; Raes, Niels; Amaral, Iêda Leão; Salomão, Rafael P; de Souza Coelho, Luiz; de Almeida Matos, Francisca Dionízia; Castilho, Carolina V; de Andrade Lima Filho, Diogenes; López, Dairon Cárdenas; Guevara, Juan Ernesto; Magnusson, William E; Phillips, Oliver L; Wittmann, Florian; de Jesus Veiga Carim, Marcelo; Martins, Maria Pires; Irume, Mariana Victória; Sabatier, Daniel; Molino, Jean-François; Bánki, Olaf S; da Silva Guimarães, José Renan; Pitman, Nigel C A; Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; Luize, Bruno Garcia; Venticinque, Eduardo Martins; de Leão Novo, Evlyn Márcia Moraes; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Silva, Thiago Sanna Freire; Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto; Terborgh, John; Reis, Neidiane Farias Costa; Montero, Juan Carlos; Casula, Katia Regina; Marimon, Beatriz S; Marimon, Ben-Hur; Coronado, Euridice N Honorio; Feldpausch, Ted R; Duque, Alvaro; Zartman, Charles Eugene; Arboleda, Nicolás Castaño; Killeen, Timothy J; Mostacedo, Bonifacio; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Schöngart, Jochen; Assis, Rafael L; Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Andrade, Ana; Laurance, William F; Camargo, José Luís; Demarchi, Layon O; Laurance, Susan G W; de Sousa Farias, Emanuelle; Nascimento, Henrique Eduardo Mendonça; Revilla, Juan David Cardenas; Quaresma, Adriano; Costa, Flavia R C; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Cintra, Bruno Barçante Ladvocat; Castellanos, Hernán; Brienen, Roel; Stevenson, Pablo R; Feitosa, Yuri; Duivenvoorden, Joost F; Aymard C, Gerardo A; Mogollón, Hugo F; Targhetta, Natalia; Comiskey, James A; Vicentini, Alberto; Lopes, Aline; Damasco, Gabriel; Dávila, Nállarett; García-Villacorta, Roosevelt; Levis, Carolina; Schietti, Juliana; Souza, Priscila; Emilio, Thaise; Alonso, Alfonso; Neill, David; Dallmeier, Francisco; Ferreira, Leandro Valle; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Praia, Daniel; do Amaral, Dário Dantas; Carvalho, Fernanda Antunes; de Souza, Fernanda Coelho; Feeley, Kenneth; Arroyo, Luzmila; Pansonato, Marcelo Petratti; Gribel, Rogerio; Villa, Boris; Licona, Juan Carlos; Fine, Paul V A; Cerón, Carlos; Baraloto, Chris; Jimenez, Eliana M; Stropp, Juliana; Engel, Julien; Silveira, Marcos; Mora, Maria Cristina Peñuela; Petronelli, Pascal; Maas, Paul; Thomas-Caesar, Raquel; Henkel, Terry W; Daly, Doug; Paredes, Marcos Ríos; Baker, Tim R; Fuentes, Alfredo; Peres, Carlos A; Chave, Jerome; Pena, Jose Luis Marcelo; Dexter, Kyle G; Silman, Miles R; Jørgensen, Peter Møller; Pennington, Toby; Di Fiore, Anthony; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Phillips, Juan Fernando; Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo; von Hildebrand, Patricio; van Andel, Tinde R; Ruschel, Ademir R; Prieto, Adriana; Rudas, Agustín; Hoffman, Bruce; Vela, César I A; Barbosa, Edelcilio Marques; Zent, Egleé L; Gonzales, George Pepe Gallardo; Doza, Hilda Paulette Dávila; de Andrade Miranda, Ires Paula; Guillaumet, Jean-Louis; Pinto, Linder Felipe Mozombite; de Matos Bonates, Luiz Carlos; Silva, Natalino; Gómez, Ricardo Zárate; Zent, Stanford; Gonzales, Therany; Vos, Vincent A; Malhi, Yadvinder; Oliveira, Alexandre A; Cano, Angela; Albuquerque, Bianca Weiss; Vriesendorp, Corine; Correa, Diego Felipe; Torre, Emilio Vilanova; van der Heijden, Geertje; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma; Ramos, José Ferreira; Young, Kenneth R; Rocha, Maira; Nascimento, Marcelo Trindade; Medina, Maria Natalia Umaña; Tirado, Milton; Wang, Ophelia; Sierra, Rodrigo; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Mendoza, Casimiro; Ferreira, Cid; Baider, Cláudia; Villarroel, Daniel; Balslev, Henrik; Mesones, Italo; Giraldo, Ligia Estela Urrego; Casas, Luisa Fernanda; Reategui, Manuel Augusto Ahuite; Linares-Palomino, Reynaldo; Zagt, Roderick; Cárdenas, Sasha; Farfan-Rios, William; Sampaio, Adeilza Felipe; Pauletto, Daniela; Sandoval, Elvis H Valderrama; Arevalo, Freddy Ramirez; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Garcia-Cabrera, Karina; Hernandez, Lionel; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela; Alexiades, Miguel N; Pansini, Susamar; Cuenca, Walter Palacios; Milliken, William; Ricardo, Joana; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Pos, Edwin; Ter Steege, Hans

2018-01-17

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology and conservation. Presence-only SDMs such as MaxEnt frequently use natural history collections (NHCs) as occurrence data, given their huge numbers and accessibility. NHCs are often spatially biased which may generate inaccuracies in SDMs. Here, we test how the distribution of NHCs and MaxEnt predictions relates to a spatial abundance model, based on a large plot dataset for Amazonian tree species, using inverse distance weighting (IDW). We also propose a new pipeline to deal with inconsistencies in NHCs and to limit the area of occupancy of the species. We found a significant but weak positive relationship between the distribution of NHCs and IDW for 66% of the species. The relationship between SDMs and IDW was also significant but weakly positive for 95% of the species, and sensitivity for both analyses was high. Furthermore, the pipeline removed half of the NHCs records. Presence-only SDM applications should consider this limitation, especially for large biodiversity assessments projects, when they are automatically generated without subsequent checking. Our pipeline provides a conservative estimate of a species' area of occupancy, within an area slightly larger than its extent of occurrence, compatible to e.g. IUCN red list assessments.

Shifts in species interactions due to the evolution of functional differences between endemics and non-endemics: an endemic syndrome hypothesis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Courtney E Gorman

Full Text Available Species ranges have been shifting since the Pleistocene, whereby fragmentation, isolation, and the subsequent reduction in gene flow have resulted in local adaptation of novel genotypes and the repeated evolution of endemic species. While there is a wide body of literature focused on understanding endemic species, very few studies empirically test whether or not the evolution of endemics results in unique function or ecological differences relative to their widespread congeners; in particular while controlling for environmental variation. Using a common garden composed of 15 Eucalyptus species within the subgenus Symphyomyrtus (9 endemic to Tasmania, 6 non-endemic, here we hypothesize and show that endemic species are functionally and ecologically different from non-endemics. Compared to non-endemics, endemic Eucalyptus species have a unique suite of functional plant traits that have extended effects on herbivores. We found that while endemics occupy many diverse habitats, they share similar functional traits potentially resulting in an endemic syndrome of traits. This study provides one of the first empirical datasets analyzing the functional differences between endemics and non-endemics in a common garden setting, and establishes a foundation for additional studies of endemic/non-endemic dynamics that will be essential for understanding global biodiversity in the midst of rapid species extinctions and range shifts as a consequence of global change.

Multi-scale approach for predicting fish species distributions across coral reef seascapes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon J Pittman

Full Text Available Two of the major limitations to effective management of coral reef ecosystems are a lack of information on the spatial distribution of marine species and a paucity of data on the interacting environmental variables that drive distributional patterns. Advances in marine remote sensing, together with the novel integration of landscape ecology and advanced niche modelling techniques provide an unprecedented opportunity to reliably model and map marine species distributions across many kilometres of coral reef ecosystems. We developed a multi-scale approach using three-dimensional seafloor morphology and across-shelf location to predict spatial distributions for five common Caribbean fish species. Seascape topography was quantified from high resolution bathymetry at five spatial scales (5-300 m radii surrounding fish survey sites. Model performance and map accuracy was assessed for two high performing machine-learning algorithms: Boosted Regression Trees (BRT and Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modelling (MaxEnt. The three most important predictors were geographical location across the shelf, followed by a measure of topographic complexity. Predictor contribution differed among species, yet rarely changed across spatial scales. BRT provided 'outstanding' model predictions (AUC = >0.9 for three of five fish species. MaxEnt provided 'outstanding' model predictions for two of five species, with the remaining three models considered 'excellent' (AUC = 0.8-0.9. In contrast, MaxEnt spatial predictions were markedly more accurate (92% map accuracy than BRT (68% map accuracy. We demonstrate that reliable spatial predictions for a range of key fish species can be achieved by modelling the interaction between the geographical location across the shelf and the topographic heterogeneity of seafloor structure. This multi-scale, analytic approach is an important new cost-effective tool to accurately delineate essential fish habitat and support

Species distribution model transferability and model grain size - finer may not always be better.

Science.gov (United States)

Manzoor, Syed Amir; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Lukac, Martin

2018-05-08

Species distribution models have been used to predict the distribution of invasive species for conservation planning. Understanding spatial transferability of niche predictions is critical to promote species-habitat conservation and forecasting areas vulnerable to invasion. Grain size of predictor variables is an important factor affecting the accuracy and transferability of species distribution models. Choice of grain size is often dependent on the type of predictor variables used and the selection of predictors sometimes rely on data availability. This study employed the MAXENT species distribution model to investigate the effect of the grain size on model transferability for an invasive plant species. We modelled the distribution of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales, U.K. and tested model performance and transferability by varying grain size (50 m, 300 m, and 1 km). MAXENT-based models are sensitive to grain size and selection of variables. We found that over-reliance on the commonly used bioclimatic variables may lead to less accurate models as it often compromises the finer grain size of biophysical variables which may be more important determinants of species distribution at small spatial scales. Model accuracy is likely to increase with decreasing grain size. However, successful model transferability may require optimization of model grain size.

The implicit assumption of symmetry and the species abundance distribution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alonso, D.; Ostling, A.; Etienne, R.S.

2008-01-01

Species abundance distributions (SADs) have played a historical role in the development of community ecology. They summarize information about the number and the relative abundance of the species encountered in a sample from a given community. For years ecologists have developed theory to

The implicit assumption of symmetry and the species abundance distribution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alonso, David; Ostling, Annette; Etienne, Rampal S.

Species abundance distributions (SADs) have played a historical role in the development of community ecology. They summarize information about the number and the relative abundance of the species encountered in a sample from a given community. For years ecologists have developed theory to

Phenological and distributional shifts in ichthyoplankton associated with recent warming in the northeast Pacific Ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Auth, Toby D; Daly, Elizabeth A; Brodeur, Richard D; Fisher, Jennifer L

2018-01-01

Understanding changes in the migratory and reproductive phenology of fish stocks in relation to climate change is critical for accurate ecosystem-based fisheries management. Relocation and changes in timing of reproduction can have dramatic effects upon the success of fish populations and throughout the food web. During anomalously warm conditions (1-4°C above normal) in the northeast Pacific Ocean during 2015-2016, we documented shifts in timing and spawning location of several pelagic fish stocks based on larval fish samples. Total larval concentrations in the northern California Current (NCC) during winter (January-March) 2015 and 2016 were the highest observed since annual collections first occurred in 1998, primarily due to increased abundances of Engraulis mordax (northern anchovy) and Sardinops sagax (Pacific sardine) larvae, which are normally summer spawning species in this region. Sardinops sagax and Merluccius productus (Pacific hake) exhibited an unprecedented early and northward spawning expansion during 2015-16. In addition, spawning duration was greatly increased for E. mordax, as the presence of larvae was observed throughout the majority of 2015-16, indicating prolonged and nearly continuous spawning of adults throughout the warm period. Larvae from all three of these species have never before been collected in the NCC as early in the year. In addition, other southern species were collected in the NCC during this period. This suggests that the spawning phenology and distribution of several ecologically and commercially important fish species dramatically and rapidly changed in response to the warming conditions occurring in 2014-2016, and could be an indication of future conditions under projected climate change. Changes in spawning timing and poleward migration of fish populations due to warmer ocean conditions or global climate change will negatively impact areas that were historically dependent on these fish, and change the food web structure

The interplay between transient a-helix formation and side chain rotamer distributions in disordered proteins probed by methyl chemical shifts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjærgaard, Magnus; Iesmantavicius, Vytautas; Poulsen, Flemming M

2011-01-01

and retinoid receptors (ACTR). We find that small differences in the methyl carbon chemical shifts due to the ¿-gauche effect may provide information about the side chain rotamer distributions. However, the effects of neighboring residues on the methyl group chemical shifts obscure the direct observation...... of ¿-gauche effect. To overcome this, we reference the chemical shifts to those in a more disordered state resulting in residue specific random coil chemical shifts. The (13)C secondary chemical shifts of the methyl groups of valine, leucine, and isoleucine show sequence specific effects, which allow...

Does scale matter? A systematic review of incorporating biological realism when predicting changes in species distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Record, Sydne; Strecker, Angela; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Beaudrot, Lydia; Zarnetske, Phoebe; Belmaker, Jonathan; Gerstner, Beth

2018-01-01

There is ample evidence that biotic factors, such as biotic interactions and dispersal capacity, can affect species distributions and influence species' responses to climate change. However, little is known about how these factors affect predictions from species distribution models (SDMs) with respect to spatial grain and extent of the models. Understanding how spatial scale influences the effects of biological processes in SDMs is important because SDMs are one of the primary tools used by conservation biologists to assess biodiversity impacts of climate change. We systematically reviewed SDM studies published from 2003-2015 using ISI Web of Science searches to: (1) determine the current state and key knowledge gaps of SDMs that incorporate biotic interactions and dispersal; and (2) understand how choice of spatial scale may alter the influence of biological processes on SDM predictions. We used linear mixed effects models to examine how predictions from SDMs changed in response to the effects of spatial scale, dispersal, and biotic interactions. There were important biases in studies including an emphasis on terrestrial ecosystems in northern latitudes and little representation of aquatic ecosystems. Our results suggest that neither spatial extent nor grain influence projected climate-induced changes in species ranges when SDMs include dispersal or biotic interactions. We identified several knowledge gaps and suggest that SDM studies forecasting the effects of climate change should: 1) address broader ranges of taxa and locations; and 1) report the grain size, extent, and results with and without biological complexity. The spatial scale of analysis in SDMs did not affect estimates of projected range shifts with dispersal and biotic interactions. However, the lack of reporting on results with and without biological complexity precluded many studies from our analysis.

Modelling the potential distribution of Betula utilis in the Himalaya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Bobrowski

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Developing sustainable adaptation pathways under climate change conditions in mountain regions requires accurate predictions of treeline shifts and future distribution ranges of treeline species. Here, we model for the first time the potential distribution of Betula utilis, a principal Himalayan treeline species, to provide a basis for the analysis of future range shifts. Our target species Betula utilis is widespread at alpine treelines in the Himalayan mountains, the distribution range extends across the Himalayan mountain range. Our objective is to model the potential distribution of B. utilis in relation to current climate conditions. We generated a dataset of 590 occurrence records and used 24 variables for ecological niche modelling. We calibrated Generalized Linear Models using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC and evaluated model performance using threshold-independent (AUC, Area Under the Curve and threshold-dependent (TSS, True Skill Statistics characteristics as well as visual assessments of projected distribution maps. We found two temperature-related (Mean Temperature of the Wettest Quarter, Temperature Annual Range and three precipitation-related variables (Precipitation of the Coldest Quarter, Average Precipitation of March, April and May and Precipitation Seasonality to be useful for predicting the potential distribution of B. utilis. All models had high predictive power (AUC ≥ 0.98 and TSS ≥ 0.89. The projected suitable area in the Himalayan mountains varies considerably, with most extensive distribution in the western and central Himalayan region. A substantial difference between potential and real distribution in the eastern Himalaya points to decreasing competitiveness of B. utilis under more oceanic conditions in the eastern part of the mountain system. A comparison between the vegetation map of Schweinfurth (1957 and our current predictions suggests that B. utilis does not reach the upper elevational limit in

New record of the sympatric distribution of two Asian species of the horseshoe crab

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Chatterji, A.

distribution of two Asian species of the horses... http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/sep25/articles14.htm 1 of 3 2/11/05 9:47 AM New record of the sympatric distribution of two Asian species of the horseshoe crab The geographical distribution of four extant species...... http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/sep25/articles14.htm 2 of 3 2/11/05 9:47 AM This species was found breeding actively on relatively clean and sandy beaches. The other species (C. rotundicauda) was not reported in these areas.However, during the survey...

Node-based analysis of species distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borregaard, Michael Krabbe; Rahbek, Carsten; Fjeldså, Jon

2014-01-01

overrepresentation score (SOS) and the geographic node divergence (GND) score, which together combine ecological and evolutionary patterns into a single framework and avoids many of the problems that characterize community phylogenetic methods in current use.This approach goes through each node in the phylogeny...... with case studies on two groups with well-described biogeographical histories: a local-scale community data set of hummingbirds in the North Andes, and a large-scale data set of the distribution of all species of New World flycatchers. The node-based analysis of these two groups generates a set...... of intuitively interpretable patterns that are consistent with current biogeographical knowledge.Importantly, the results are statistically tractable, opening many possibilities for their use in analyses of evolutionary, historical and spatial patterns of species diversity. The method is implemented...

Species Distribution Modeling: Comparison of Fixed and Mixed Effects Models Using INLA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lara Dutra Silva

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Invasive alien species are among the most important, least controlled, and least reversible of human impacts on the world’s ecosystems, with negative consequences affecting biodiversity and socioeconomic systems. Species distribution models have become a fundamental tool in assessing the potential spread of invasive species in face of their native counterparts. In this study we compared two different modeling techniques: (i fixed effects models accounting for the effect of ecogeographical variables (EGVs; and (ii mixed effects models including also a Gaussian random field (GRF to model spatial correlation (Matérn covariance function. To estimate the potential distribution of Pittosporum undulatum and Morella faya (respectively, invasive and native trees, we used geo-referenced data of their distribution in Pico and São Miguel islands (Azores and topographic, climatic and land use EGVs. Fixed effects models run with maximum likelihood or the INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation approach provided very similar results, even when reducing the size of the presences data set. The addition of the GRF increased model adjustment (lower Deviance Information Criterion, particularly for the less abundant tree, M. faya. However, the random field parameters were clearly affected by sample size and species distribution pattern. A high degree of spatial autocorrelation was found and should be taken into account when modeling species distribution.

Distribution characteristics of mineral elements in tree Species from ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Tree species populations were 44 in Akyaakrom (AS), 29 in Dopiri (DS), and families were 18 in AS and 16 in DS. Tree densities were 121 and 99 in AS and DS, respectively, in 0.57 ha. In terms of tree species population, diversity and density, AS was superior to DS. The distribution of major mineral elements in the leaves ...

Dispersal ability determines the scaling properties of species abundance distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borda-De-Água, Luís; Whittaker, Robert James; Cardoso, Pedro

2017-01-01

with computer simulations, low dispersal ability species generate a hump for intermediate abundance classes earlier than the distributions of high dispersal ability species. Importantly, when plotted as function of sample size, the raw moments of the SADs of arthropods have a power law pattern similar...

Species distribution modeling based on the automated identification of citizen observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Botella, Christophe; Joly, Alexis; Bonnet, Pierre; Monestiez, Pascal; Munoz, François

2018-02-01

A species distribution model computed with automatically identified plant observations was developed and evaluated to contribute to future ecological studies. We used deep learning techniques to automatically identify opportunistic plant observations made by citizens through a popular mobile application. We compared species distribution modeling of invasive alien plants based on these data to inventories made by experts. The trained models have a reasonable predictive effectiveness for some species, but they are biased by the massive presence of cultivated specimens. The method proposed here allows for fine-grained and regular monitoring of some species of interest based on opportunistic observations. More in-depth investigation of the typology of the observations and the sampling bias should help improve the approach in the future.

Separating the effects of environment and space on tree species distribution: from population to community.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Guojun; Stralberg, Diana; Gong, Guiquan; Huang, Zhongliang; Ye, Wanhui; Wu, Linfang

2013-01-01

Quantifying the relative contributions of environmental conditions and spatial factors to species distribution can help improve our understanding of the processes that drive diversity patterns. In this study, based on tree inventory, topography and soil data from a 20-ha stem-mapped permanent forest plot in Guangdong Province, China, we evaluated the influence of different ecological processes at different spatial scales using canonical redundancy analysis (RDA) at the community level and multiple linear regression at the species level. At the community level, the proportion of explained variation in species distribution increased with grid-cell sizes, primarily due to a monotonic increase in the explanatory power of environmental variables. At the species level, neither environmental nor spatial factors were important determinants of overstory species' distributions at small cell sizes. However, purely spatial variables explained most of the variation in the distributions of understory species at fine and intermediate cell sizes. Midstory species showed patterns that were intermediate between those of overstory and understory species. At the 20-m cell size, the influence of spatial factors was stronger for more dispersal-limited species, suggesting that much of the spatial structuring in this community can be explained by dispersal limitation. Comparing environmental factors, soil variables had higher explanatory power than did topography for species distribution. However, both topographic and edaphic variables were highly spatial structured. Our results suggested that dispersal limitation has an important influence on fine-intermediate scale (from several to tens of meters) species distribution, while environmental variability facilitates species distribution at intermediate (from ten to tens of meters) and broad (from tens to hundreds of meters) scales.

Shift from bird to butterfly pollination in Clivia (Amaryllidaceae).

Science.gov (United States)

Kiepiel, Ian; Johnson, Steven D

2014-01-01

Pollinator shifts have been implicated as a driver of divergence in angiosperms. We tested the hypothesis that there was a transition from bird- to butterfly pollination in the African genus Clivia (Amaryllidaceae) and investigated how floral traits may have been either modified or retained during this transition. We identified pollinators using field observations, correlations between lepidopteran wing scales and pollen on stigmas, and single-visit and selective exclusion experiments. We also quantified floral rewards and advertising traits. The upright trumpet-shaped flowers of C. miniata were found to be pollinated effectively by swallowtail butterflies during both nectar-feeding and brush visits. These butterflies transfer pollen on their wings, as evidenced by positive correlations between wing scales and pollen loads on stigmas. All other Clivia species have narrow pendulous flowers that are visited by sunbirds. Selective exclusion of birds and large butterflies from flowers of two Clivia species resulted in a significant decline in seed production. From the distribution of pollination systems on available phylogenies, it is apparent that a shift took place from bird- to butterfly pollination in Clivia. This shift was accompanied by the evolution of trumpet-shaped flowers, smaller nectar volume, and emission of scent, while flower color and nectar chemistry do not appear to have been substantially modified. These results are consistent with the idea that pollinator shifts can explain major floral modifications during plant diversification.

Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Tae-Sung; Li, Fengqing; Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

2016-01-01

Global warming is likely leading to species' distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr-1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities.

Using Environmental DNA to Improve Species Distribution Models for Freshwater Invaders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teja P. Muha

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Species Distribution Models (SDMs have been reported as a useful tool for the risk assessment and modeling of the pathways of dispersal of freshwater invasive alien species (IAS. Environmental DNA (eDNA is a novel tool that can help detect IAS at their early stage of introduction and additionally improve the data available for a more efficient management. SDMs rely on presence and absence of the species in the study area to infer the predictors affecting species distributions. Presence is verified once a species is detected, but confirmation of absence can be problematic because this depends both on the detectability of the species and the sampling strategy. eDNA is a technique that presents higher detectability and accuracy in comparison to conventional sampling techniques, and can effectively differentiate between presence or absence of specific species or entire communities by using a barcoding or metabarcoding approach. However, a number of potential bias can be introduced during (i sampling, (ii amplification, (iii sequencing, or (iv through the usage of bioinformatics pipelines. Therefore, it is important to report and conduct the field and laboratory procedures in a consistent way, by (i introducing eDNA independent observations, (ii amplifying and sequencing control samples, (iii achieving quality sequence reads by appropriate clean-up steps, (iv controlling primer amplification preferences, (v introducing PCR-free sequence capturing, (vi estimating primer detection capabilities through controlled experiments and/or (vii post-hoc introduction of “site occupancy-detection models.” With eDNA methodology becoming increasingly routine, its use is strongly recommended to retrieve species distributional data for SDMs.

Asymmetric changes of growth and reproductive investment herald altitudinal and latitudinal range shifts of two woody species.

Science.gov (United States)

Matías, Luis; Jump, Alistair S

2015-02-01

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of the geographical distribution of a species, where range expansions or contractions may occur. Current demographical status at geographical range limits can help us to predict population trends and their implications for the future distribution of the species. Thus, understanding the comparability of demographical patterns occurring along both altitudinal and latitudinal gradients would be highly informative. In this study, we analyse the differences in the demography of two woody species through altitudinal gradients at their southernmost distribution limit and the consistency of demographical patterns at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the complete distribution range. We focus on Pinus sylvestris and Juniperus communis, assessing their demographical structure (density, age and mortality rate), growth, reproduction investment and damage from herbivory on 53 populations covering the upper, central and lower altitudes as well as the treeline at central latitude and northernmost and southernmost latitudinal distribution limits. For both species, populations at the lowermost altitude presented older age structure, higher mortality, decreased growth and lower reproduction when compared to the upper limit, indicating higher fitness at the treeline. This trend at the treeline was generally maintained through the latitudinal gradient, but with a decreased growth at the northern edge for both species and lower reproduction for P. sylvestris. However, altitudinal and latitudinal transects are not directly comparable as factors other than climate, including herbivore pressure or human management, must be taken into account if we are to understand how to infer latitudinal processes from altitudinal data. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Identity and distribution of southern African sciaenid fish species of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Two Umbrina species, U. canariensis Valenciennes 1843 and U. robinsoni Gilchrist and Thompson 1908, are recognised from southern Africa. The latter species was hitherto believed to be a synonym of Umbrina ronchus Valenciennes 1843 (type locality Canary Islands). U. canariensis is distributed along the South Africa ...

Salinity critical threshold values for photosynthesis of two cosmopolitan seaweed species: providing baselines for potential shifts on seaweed assemblages.

Science.gov (United States)

Scherner, Fernando; Ventura, Robson; Barufi, José Bonomi; Horta, Paulo Antunes

2013-10-01

Climate change has increased precipitation in several South American regions leading to higher freshwater inputs into marine systems with potential to cause salinity declines along the coast. The current salinity profile on the southern coast of Brazil was surveyed during four years providing a baseline of the current salinity pattern in the region. Additionally, the effects of salinity decreases on the photosynthesis of the seaweeds Ulva lactuca and Sargassum stenophyllum were investigated in laboratory. Seaweeds were cultured at salinities 5, 15 and 34 and at the mean winter and summer temperatures. Photosynthetic performance was measured following 24 and 96 h from the beginning of experiment. U. lactuca remained practically unaltered by low salinities while S. stenophyllum presented declines of important photosynthetic parameters. This is due to the different regulation abilities of energy distribution at the PSII of the two species. These differences have potential to lead to seaweed community shifts. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting weed problems in maize cropping by species distribution modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bürger, Jana

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Increasing maize cultivation and changed cropping practices promote the selection of typical maize weeds that may also profit strongly from climate change. Predicting potential weed problems is of high interest for plant production. Within the project KLIFF, experiments were combined with species distribution modelling for this task in the region of Lower Saxony, Germany. For our study, we modelled ecological and damage niches of nine weed species that are significant and wide spread in maize cropping in a number of European countries. Species distribution models describe the ecological niche of a species, these are the environmental conditions under which a species can maintain a vital population. It is also possible to estimate a damage niche, i.e. the conditions under which a species causes damage in agricultural crops. For this, we combined occurrence data of European national data bases with high resolution climate, soil and land use data. Models were also projected to simulated climate conditions for the time horizon 2070 - 2100 in order to estimate climate change effects. Modelling results indicate favourable conditions for typical maize weed occurrence virtually all over the study region, but only a few species are important in maize cropping. This is in good accordance with the findings of an earlier maize weed monitoring. Reaction to changing climate conditions is species-specific, for some species neutral (E. crus-galli, other species may gain (Polygonum persicaria or loose (Viola arvensis large areas of suitable habitats. All species with damage potential under present conditions will remain important in maize cropping, some more species will gain regional importance (Calystegia sepium, Setara viridis.

SESAM – a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guisan, Antoine; Rahbek, Carsten

2011-01-01

Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realized properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts...

Using species abundance distribution models and diversity indices for biogeographical analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Fattorini, Simone; Rigal, François; Cardoso, Pedro; Borges, Paulo A. V.

2016-01-01

We examine whether Species Abundance Distribution models (SADs) and diversity indices can describe how species colonization status influences species community assembly on oceanic islands. Our hypothesis is that, because of the lack of source-sink dynamics at the archipelago scale, Single Island Endemics (SIEs), i.e. endemic species restricted to only one island, should be represented by few rare species and consequently have abundance patterns that differ from those of more widespread species. To test our hypothesis, we used arthropod data from the Azorean archipelago (North Atlantic). We divided the species into three colonization categories: SIEs, archipelagic endemics (AZEs, present in at least two islands) and native non-endemics (NATs). For each category, we modelled rank-abundance plots using both the geometric series and the Gambin model, a measure of distributional amplitude. We also calculated Shannon entropy and Buzas and Gibson's evenness. We show that the slopes of the regression lines modelling SADs were significantly higher for SIEs, which indicates a relative predominance of a few highly abundant species and a lack of rare species, which also depresses diversity indices. This may be a consequence of two factors: (i) some forest specialist SIEs may be at advantage over other, less adapted species; (ii) the entire populations of SIEs are by definition concentrated on a single island, without possibility for inter-island source-sink dynamics; hence all populations must have a minimum number of individuals to survive natural, often unpredictable, fluctuations. These findings are supported by higher values of the α parameter of the Gambin mode for SIEs. In contrast, AZEs and NATs had lower regression slopes, lower α but higher diversity indices, resulting from their widespread distribution over several islands. We conclude that these differences in the SAD models and diversity indices demonstrate that the study of these metrics is useful for

Are range-size distributions consistent with species-level heritability?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borregaard, Michael Krabbe; Gotelli, Nicholas; Rahbek, Carsten

2012-01-01

The concept of species-level heritability is widely contested. Because it is most likely to apply to emergent, species-level traits, one of the central discussions has focused on the potential heritability of geographic range size. However, a central argument against range-size heritability has...... been that it is not compatible with the observed shape of present-day species range-size distributions (SRDs), a claim that has never been tested. To assess this claim, we used forward simulation of range-size evolution in clades with varying degrees of range-size heritability, and compared the output...

Shifting suitability for malaria vectors across Africa with warming climates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peterson A Townsend

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Climates are changing rapidly, producing warm climate conditions globally not previously observed in modern history. Malaria is of great concern as a cause of human mortality and morbidity, particularly across Africa, thanks in large part to the presence there of a particularly competent suite of mosquito vector species. Methods I derive spatially explicit estimates of human populations living in regions newly suitable climatically for populations of two key Anopheles gambiae vector complex species in Africa over the coming 50 years, based on ecological niche model projections over two global climate models, two scenarios of climate change, and detailed spatial summaries of human population distributions. Results For both species, under all scenarios, given the changing spatial distribution of appropriate conditions and the current population distribution, the models predict a reduction of 11.3–30.2% in the percentage of the overall population living in areas climatically suitable for these vector species in coming decades, but reductions and increases are focused in different regions: malaria vector suitability is likely to decrease in West Africa, but increase in eastern and southern Africa. Conclusion Climate change effects on African malaria vectors shift their distributional potential from west to east and south, which has implications for overall numbers of people exposed to these vector species. Although the total is reduced, malaria is likely to pose novel public health problems in areas where it has not previously been common.

Landscape planning for the future: using fossil records to independently validate potential threats, opportunities and likely future range-shifts for socio-economically valuable plant species in Europe and sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Macias Fauria, M.; Willis, K. J.

2011-12-01

Holocene, including the sharp transition from wet to dry climate about 5000 yr. B.P., of crucial importance to understand the response of the savannah/desert system to large climatic shifts over a region especially sensitive to these oscillations. Validated models were projected onto ensemble climate projections for the late 21st century, providing robust predictions of the future distribution of these key plant species.

Changes in abundance and spatial distribution of geese molting near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska: Interspecific competition or ecological change?

Science.gov (United States)

Flint, P.L.; Mallek, E.J.; King, R.J.; Schmutz, J.A.; Bollinger, K.S.; Derksen, D.V.

2008-01-01

Goose populations molting in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska have changed in size and distribution over the past 30 years. Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) are relatively stable in numbers but are shifting from large, inland lakes to salt marshes. Concurrently, populations of greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons frontalis) have increased seven fold. Populations of Canada geese (Branta canadensis and/or B. hutchinsii) are stable with little indication of distributional shifts. The lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) population is proportionally small, but increasing rapidly. Coastline erosion of the Beaufort Sea has altered tundra habitats by allowing saltwater intrusion, which has resulted in shifts in composition of forage plant species. We propose two alternative hypotheses for the observed shift in black brant distribution. Ecological change may have altered optimal foraging habitats for molting birds, or alternatively, interspecific competition between black brant and greater white-fronted geese may be excluding black brant from preferred habitats. Regardless of the causative mechanism, the observed shifts in species distributions are an important consideration for future resource planning. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Guisan, Antoine

2006-01-01

Species distribution modelling is central to both fundamental and applied research in biogeography. Despite widespread use of models, there are still important conceptual ambiguities as well as biotic and algorithmic uncertainties that need to be investigated in order to increase confidence in mo...

Spatial structures of the environment and of dispersal impact species distribution in competitive metacommunities.

Science.gov (United States)

Ai, Dexiecuo; Gravel, Dominique; Chu, Chengjin; Wang, Gang

2013-01-01

The correspondence between species distribution and the environment depends on species' ability to track favorable environmental conditions (via dispersal) and to maintain competitive hierarchy against the constant influx of migrants (mass effect) and demographic stochasticity (ecological drift). Here we report a simulation study of the influence of landscape structure on species distribution. We consider lottery competition for space in a spatially heterogeneous environment, where the landscape is represented as a network of localities connected by dispersal. We quantified the contribution of neutrality and species sorting to their spatial distribution. We found that neutrality increases and the strength of species-sorting decreases with the centrality of a community in the landscape when the average dispersal among communities is low, whereas the opposite was found at elevated dispersal. We also found that the strength of species-sorting increases with environmental heterogeneity. Our results illustrate that spatial structure of the environment and of dispersal must be taken into account for understanding species distribution. We stress the importance of spatial geographic structure on the relative importance of niche vs. neutral processes in controlling community dynamics.

Congruence between distribution modelling and phylogeographical analyses reveals Quaternary survival of a toadflax species (Linaria elegans) in oceanic climate areas of a mountain ring range.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Mazuecos, Mario; Vargas, Pablo

2013-06-01

· The role of Quaternary climatic shifts in shaping the distribution of Linaria elegans, an Iberian annual plant, was investigated using species distribution modelling and molecular phylogeographical analyses. Three hypotheses are proposed to explain the Quaternary history of its mountain ring range. · The distribution of L. elegans was modelled using the maximum entropy method and projected to the last interglacial and to the last glacial maximum (LGM) using two different paleoclimatic models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). Two nuclear and three plastid DNA regions were sequenced for 24 populations (119 individuals sampled). Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographical, dating and coalescent-based population genetic analyses were conducted. · Molecular analyses indicated the existence of northern and southern glacial refugia and supported two routes of post-glacial recolonization. These results were consistent with the LGM distribution as inferred under the CCSM paleoclimatic model (but not under the MIROC model). Isolation between two major refugia was dated back to the Riss or Mindel glaciations, > 100 kyr before present (bp). · The Atlantic distribution of inferred refugia suggests that the oceanic (buffered)-continental (harsh) gradient may have played a key and previously unrecognized role in determining Quaternary distribution shifts of Mediterranean plants. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Testing species distribution models across space and time: high latitude butterflies and recent warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eskildsen, Anne; LeRoux, Peter C.; Heikkinen, Risto K.

2013-01-01

changes at expanding range margins can be predicted accurately. Location. Finland. Methods. Using 10-km resolution butterfly atlas data from two periods, 1992–1999 (t1) and 2002–2009 (t2), with a significant between-period temperature increase, we modelled the effects of climatic warming on butterfly...... butterfly distributions under climate change. Model performance was lower with independent compared to non-independent validation and improved when land cover and soil type variables were included, compared to climate-only models. SDMs performed less well for highly mobile species and for species with long......Aim. To quantify whether species distribution models (SDMs) can reliably forecast species distributions under observed climate change. In particular, to test whether the predictive ability of SDMs depends on species traits or the inclusion of land cover and soil type, and whether distributional...

Linking macroecology and community ecology: refining predictions of species distributions using biotic interaction networks.

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Staniczenko, Phillip P A; Sivasubramaniam, Prabu; Suttle, K Blake; Pearson, Richard G

2017-06-01

Macroecological models for predicting species distributions usually only include abiotic environmental conditions as explanatory variables, despite knowledge from community ecology that all species are linked to other species through biotic interactions. This disconnect is largely due to the different spatial scales considered by the two sub-disciplines: macroecologists study patterns at large extents and coarse resolutions, while community ecologists focus on small extents and fine resolutions. A general framework for including biotic interactions in macroecological models would help bridge this divide, as it would allow for rigorous testing of the role that biotic interactions play in determining species ranges. Here, we present an approach that combines species distribution models with Bayesian networks, which enables the direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions to be modelled as propagating conditional dependencies among species' presences. We show that including biotic interactions in distribution models for species from a California grassland community results in better range predictions across the western USA. This new approach will be important for improving estimates of species distributions and their dynamics under environmental change. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Thomassen, Henri A.; Fuller, Trevon; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Shiplacoff, Julia A. G.; Mulembakani, Prime M.; Blumberg, Seth; Johnston, Sara C.; Kisalu, Neville K.; Kinkela, Timothée L.; Fair, Joseph N.; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Shongo, Robert L.; LeBreton, Matthew; Meyer, Hermann; Wright, Linda L.; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Buermann, Wolfgang; Okitolonda, Emile; Hensley, Lisa E.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Smith, Thomas B.; Rimoin, Anne W.

2013-01-01

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts. PMID:23935820

[Species composition and distribution of medical mollusca in Shanghai City].

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Yun-hai; Lv, Shan; Gu, Wen-biao; Liu, He-xiang; Wu, Ying; Zhang, Yi

2015-02-01

To investigate the species diversity and distribution of medical mollusca in Shanghai City. From August 2012 to October 2013, all kinds of habitats in 8 districts and counties in Shanghai City, namely Jiading, Qingpu, Baoshan, Minhang, Songjiang, Jinshan, Chongming, Pudong, were selected for the field survey according to the distribution characteristics of the river system, and all the specimens of medical mollusca in the investigation sites were collected and classified by morphological identification. Meanwhile, the species composition, habitats as well as the fauna of the medical mollusca collected were analyzed. A total of 5,211 specimens were collected, which belonged to 2 classes, 14 families, 18 genera and 25 species, including Oncomelania hupensis hupensis, Pomacea canaliculata, Parafossarulus striatulus, Alocinma longicornis, Physa acuta, Galba pervia, Hippeutis cantori, etc. The species numbers of medical mollusca in Chongming, Jinshan, Pudong new area and Qingpu districts (counties) were 22, 22, 21 and 20, respectively, which were more than those of other areas. The habitat analysis suggested that the species numbers in the river and wetland were the most, both of which were 14 species. The main faunas of the medical mollusca in Shanghai were the cosmopolitan and oriental species. The freshwater gastropod species are paucity in Shanghai City, but almost of them can be served as the intermediate hosts of certain parasites to transmit snail-related parasitic diseases, so the surveillance of medical mollusca should be strengthened.

Species distribution and introgressive hybridization of two Avicennia species from the Western Hemisphere unveiled by phylogeographic patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Mori, Gustavo M; Zucchi, Maria I; Sampaio, Iracilda; Souza, Anete P

2015-04-10

Mangrove plants grow in the intertidal zone in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. The global latitudinal distribution of the mangrove is mainly influenced by climatic and oceanographic features. Because of current climate changes, poleward range expansions have been reported for the major biogeographic regions of mangrove forests in the Western and Eastern Hemispheres. There is evidence that mangrove forests also responded similarly after the last glaciation by expanding their ranges. In this context, the use of genetic tools is an informative approach for understanding how historical processes and factors impact the distribution of mangrove species. We investigated the phylogeographic patterns of two Avicennia species, A. germinans and A. schaueriana, from the Western Hemisphere using nuclear and chloroplast DNA markers. Our results indicate that, although Avicennia bicolor, A. germinans and A. schaueriana are independent lineages, hybridization between A. schaueriana and A. germinans is a relevant evolutionary process. Our findings also reinforce the role of long-distance dispersal in widespread mangrove species such as A. germinans, for which we observed signs of transatlantic dispersal, a process that has, most likely, contributed to the breadth of the distribution of A. germinans. However, along the southern coast of South America, A. schaueriana is the only representative of the genus. The distribution patterns of A. germinans and A. schaueriana are explained by their different responses to past climate changes and by the unequal historical effectiveness of relative gene flow by propagules and pollen. We observed that A. bicolor, A. germinans and A. schaueriana are three evolutionary lineages that present historical and ongoing hybridization on the American continent. We also inferred a new evidence of transatlantic dispersal for A. germinans, which may have contributed to its widespread distribution. Despite the generally wider distribution of A

Vegetation in Bangalore's Slums: Composition, Species Distribution, Density, Diversity, and History

Science.gov (United States)

Gopal, Divya; Nagendra, Harini; Manthey, Michael

2015-06-01

There is widespread acknowledgement of the need for biodiversity and greening to be part of urban sustainability efforts. Yet we know little about greenery in the context of urban poverty, particularly in slums, which constitute a significant challenge for inclusive development in many rapidly growing cities. We assessed the composition, density, diversity, and species distribution of vegetation in 44 slums of Bangalore, India, comparing these to published studies on vegetation diversity in other land-use categories. Most trees were native to the region, as compared to other land-use categories such as parks and streets which are dominated by introduced species. Of the most frequently encountered tree species, Moringa oleifera and Cocos nucifera are important for food, while Ficus religiosa plays a critical cultural and religious role. Tree density and diversity were much lower in slums compared to richer residential neighborhoods. There are also differences in species preferences, with most plant (herb, shrub and vines) species in slums having economic, food, medicinal, or cultural use, while the species planted in richer residential areas are largely ornamental. Historic development has had an impact on species distribution, with older slums having larger sized tree species, while recent slums were dominated by smaller sized tree species with greater economic and food use. Extensive focus on planting trees and plant species with utility value is required in these congested neighborhoods, to provide livelihood support.

Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meier, Elaine S.; Kienast, Felix; Pearman, Peter B.

2010-01-01

Abiotic factors such as climate and soil determine the species fundamental niche, which is further constrained by biotic interactions such as interspecific competition. To parameterize this realized niche, species distribution models (SDMs) most often relate species occurrence data to abiotic var...

Ecophysiological Traits of Leaves of Three Marsilea Species Distributed in Different Geographical Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tai-Chung Wu

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Marsilea, an amphibian fern genus (containing ca. 80 species characterized by their unusual leaves and reproductive structures, is distributed over the five continents. To investigate the adaptation traits of three Marsilea species (M. crenata, M. quadrifolia, and M. schelpiana, distributed in different geographic regions, to terrestrial conditions, we compared morphological features, optical properties and photosynthetic performance of leaflets of the three species grown in terrestrial environment. The results showed that leaflets of the three species had significant differences in some of the ecophysiogical traits. Among the three species, M. quadrifolia (distributed in temperate region where receiving low precipitation had the highest trichome density on its leaflet surface and the highest water use efficiency, M. schelpiana (mainly in southern Africa where accepting high level of solar irradiance had the tallest petiole and the highest leaf dissection index, total stomatal pore area index, PSII electron transport rate and photosaturated photosynthetic rate, M. crenata (mainly in southeastern Asia region where receiving high precipitation and with high humidity had the lowest leaf dissection index and water use efficiency. Accordingly, leaf characteristics of the three Marsilea species reflect the climate pattern of their habitats. The results also suggest that water availability and light intensity are two of the important factors contributing to the geographic distribution of the three species.

Environmental niche divergence among three dune shrub sister species with parapatric distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Chozas, Sergio; Chefaoui, Rosa M; Correia, Otília; Bonal, Raúl; Hortal, Joaquín

2017-05-01

The geographical distributions of species are constrained by their ecological requirements. The aim of this work was to analyse the effects of environmental conditions, historical events and biogeographical constraints on the diversification of the three species of the western Mediterranean shrub genus Stauracanthus , which have a parapatric distribution in the Iberian Peninsula. Ecological niche factor analysis and generalized linear models were used to measure the response of all Stauracanthus species to the environmental gradients and map their potential distributions in the Iberian Peninsula. The bioclimatic niche overlap between the three species was determined by using Schoener's index. The genetic differentiation of the Iberian and northern African populations of Stauracanthus species was characterized with GenalEx. The effects on genetic distances of the most important environmental drivers were assessed through Mantel tests and non-metric multidimensional scaling. The three Stauracanthus species show remarkably similar responses to climatic conditions. This supports the idea that all members of this recently diversified clade retain common adaptations to climate and consequently high levels of climatic niche overlap. This contrasts with the diverse edaphic requirements of Stauracanthus species. The populations of the S. genistoides-spectabilis clade grow on Miocene and Pliocene fine-textured sedimentary soils, whereas S. boivinii , the more genetically distant species, occurs on older and more coarse-textured sedimentary substrates. These patterns of diversification are largely consistent with a stochastic process of geographical range expansion and fragmentation coupled with niche evolution in the context of spatially complex environmental fluctuations. : The combined analysis of the distribution, realized environmental niche and phylogeographical relationships of parapatric species proposed in this work allows integration of the biogeographical

Shifts in climate foster exceptional opportunities for species radiation: the case of South african geraniums.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hugo I Martínez-Cabrera

Full Text Available Climate change is often assumed to be a major driver of biodiversity loss. However, it can also set the stage for novel diversification in lineages with the evolutionary ability to colonize new environments. Here we tested if the extraordinary evolutionary success of the genus Pelargonium was related to the ability of its species to capitalize on the climate niche variation produced by the historical changes in southern Africa. We evaluated the relationship between rates of climate niche evolution and diversification rates in the main Pelargonium lineages and disentangled the roles of deep and recent historical events in the modification of species niches. Pelargonium clades exhibiting higher ecological differentiation along summer precipitation (SPP gradients also experienced higher diversification rates. Faster rates of niche differentiation in spatially structured variables, along with lower levels of niche overlap among closely related species, suggest recent modification in species niches (e.g. dispersal or range shift and niche lability. We suggest that highly structured SPP gradients established during the aridification process within southern Africa, in concert with niche lability and low niche overlap, contributed to species divergence. These factors are likely to be responsible for the extensive diversification of other lineages in this diversity hot spot.

Vertical distribution and migration of euphausiid species in the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Wiebe, Peter H.

2016-06-01

We addressed how the extreme environmental conditions of the Red Sea impact or alter patterns of vertical distribution and vertical migration of five euphausiid species that are known from other oceans. Euphausia diomedeae was abundant and performed diel vertical migration (DVM) from >200 m in daytime to <100 m at night, similar to its pattern in other ocean regions. Euphausia sibogae and Euphausia sanzoi also showed consistent patterns of DVM across their ranges in the Red Sea and elsewhere. Two species, Stylocheiron affine and Stylocheiron abbreviatum, did not exhibit DVM. DNA barcode sequences for mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (COI) were used to confirm species identifications for four species (no previous barcode data exist for E. sanzoi). COI sequence differences averaged 2.8% (SD 3.1%) within species and 16.6% (SD 0.7%) between species, similar to previous studies of euphausiids. Red Sea specimens of S. affine matched morphological descriptions of a western equatorial form and differed 14% from Atlantic and Pacific specimens, suggesting possible cryptic species-level variation within this taxon. Widely distributed species of zooplankton may exhibit broad tolerance ranges for key environmental variables, and have considerable potential to adapt to variable and changing conditions across their geographic range.

Spatial structures of the environment and of dispersal impact species distribution in competitive metacommunities.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dexiecuo Ai

Full Text Available The correspondence between species distribution and the environment depends on species' ability to track favorable environmental conditions (via dispersal and to maintain competitive hierarchy against the constant influx of migrants (mass effect and demographic stochasticity (ecological drift. Here we report a simulation study of the influence of landscape structure on species distribution. We consider lottery competition for space in a spatially heterogeneous environment, where the landscape is represented as a network of localities connected by dispersal. We quantified the contribution of neutrality and species sorting to their spatial distribution. We found that neutrality increases and the strength of species-sorting decreases with the centrality of a community in the landscape when the average dispersal among communities is low, whereas the opposite was found at elevated dispersal. We also found that the strength of species-sorting increases with environmental heterogeneity. Our results illustrate that spatial structure of the environment and of dispersal must be taken into account for understanding species distribution. We stress the importance of spatial geographic structure on the relative importance of niche vs. neutral processes in controlling community dynamics.

Asymmetric biotic interactions and abiotic niche differences revealed by a dynamic joint species distribution model.

Science.gov (United States)

Lany, Nina K; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Schliep, Erin M; Schaeffer, Robert N; Orians, Colin M; Orwig, David A; Preisser, Evan L

2018-05-01

A species' distribution and abundance are determined by abiotic conditions and biotic interactions with other species in the community. Most species distribution models correlate the occurrence of a single species with environmental variables only, and leave out biotic interactions. To test the importance of biotic interactions on occurrence and abundance, we compared a multivariate spatiotemporal model of the joint abundance of two invasive insects that share a host plant, hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae) and elongate hemlock scale (EHS; Fiorina externa), to independent models that do not account for dependence among co-occurring species. The joint model revealed that HWA responded more strongly to abiotic conditions than EHS. Additionally, HWA appeared to predispose stands to subsequent increase of EHS, but HWA abundance was not strongly dependent on EHS abundance. This study demonstrates how incorporating spatial and temporal dependence into a species distribution model can reveal the dependence of a species' abundance on other species in the community. Accounting for dependence among co-occurring species with a joint distribution model can also improve estimation of the abiotic niche for species affected by interspecific interactions. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Predicting the geographical distribution of two invasive termite species from occurrence data.

Science.gov (United States)

Tonini, Francesco; Divino, Fabio; Lasinio, Giovanna Jona; Hochmair, Hartwig H; Scheffrahn, Rudolf H

2014-10-01

Predicting the potential habitat of species under both current and future climate change scenarios is crucial for monitoring invasive species and understanding a species' response to different environmental conditions. Frequently, the only data available on a species is the location of its occurrence (presence-only data). Using occurrence records only, two models were used to predict the geographical distribution of two destructive invasive termite species, Coptotermes gestroi (Wasmann) and Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki. The first model uses a Bayesian linear logistic regression approach adjusted for presence-only data while the second one is the widely used maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Results show that the predicted distributions of both C. gestroi and C. formosanus are strongly linked to urban development. The impact of future scenarios such as climate warming and population growth on the biotic distribution of both termite species was also assessed. Future climate warming seems to affect their projected probability of presence to a lesser extent than population growth. The Bayesian logistic approach outperformed Maxent consistently in all models according to evaluation criteria such as model sensitivity and ecological realism. The importance of further studies for an explicit treatment of residual spatial autocorrelation and a more comprehensive comparison between both statistical approaches is suggested.

Diversity and Distribution of Freshwater Amphipod Species in Switzerland (Crustacea: Amphipoda)

Science.gov (United States)

Altermatt, Florian; Alther, Roman; Fišer, Cene; Jokela, Jukka; Konec, Marjeta; Küry, Daniel; Mächler, Elvira; Stucki, Pascal; Westram, Anja Marie

2014-01-01

Amphipods are key organisms in many freshwater systems and contribute substantially to the diversity and functioning of macroinvertebrate communities. Furthermore, they are commonly used as bioindicators and for ecotoxicological tests. For many areas, however, diversity and distribution of amphipods is inadequately known, which limits their use in ecological and ecotoxicological studies and handicaps conservation initiatives. We studied the diversity and distribution of amphipods in Switzerland (Central Europe), covering four major drainage basins, an altitudinal gradient of>2,500 m, and various habitats (rivers, streams, lakes and groundwater). We provide the first provisional checklist and detailed information on the distribution and diversity of all amphipod species from Switzerland. In total, we found 29 amphipod species. This includes 16 native and 13 non-native species, one of the latter (Orchestia cavimana) reported here for the first time for Switzerland. The diversity is compared to neighboring countries. We specifically discuss species of the genus Niphargus, which are often receiving less attention. We also found evidence of an even higher level of hidden diversity, and the potential occurrence of further cryptic species. This diversity reflects the biogeographic past of Switzerland, and suggests that amphipods are ideally suited to address questions on endemism and adaptive radiations, post-glaciation re-colonization and invasion dynamics as well as biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships in aquatic systems. PMID:25354099

Tree species distribution in temperate forests is more influenced by soil than by climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Walthert, Lorenz; Meier, Eliane Seraina

2017-11-01

Knowledge of the ecological requirements determining tree species distributions is a precondition for sustainable forest management. At present, the abiotic requirements and the relative importance of the different abiotic factors are still unclear for many temperate tree species. We therefore investigated the relative importance of climatic and edaphic factors for the abundance of 12 temperate tree species along environmental gradients. Our investigations are based on data from 1,075 forest stands across Switzerland including the cold-induced tree line of all studied species and the drought-induced range boundaries of several species. Four climatic and four edaphic predictors represented the important growth factors temperature, water supply, nutrient availability, and soil aeration. The climatic predictors were derived from the meteorological network of MeteoSwiss, and the edaphic predictors were available from soil profiles. Species cover abundances were recorded in field surveys. The explanatory power of the predictors was assessed by variation partitioning analyses with generalized linear models. For six of the 12 species, edaphic predictors were more important than climatic predictors in shaping species distribution. Over all species, abundances depended mainly on nutrient availability, followed by temperature, water supply, and soil aeration. The often co-occurring species responded similar to these growth factors. Drought turned out to be a determinant of the lower range boundary for some species. We conclude that over all 12 studied tree species, soil properties were more important than climate variables in shaping tree species distribution. The inclusion of appropriate soil variables in species distribution models allowed to better explain species' ecological niches. Moreover, our study revealed that the ecological requirements of tree species assessed in local field studies and in experiments are valid at larger scales across Switzerland.

Potential Environmental and Ecological Effects of Global Climate Change on Venomous Terrestrial Species in the Wilderness.

Science.gov (United States)

Needleman, Robert K; Neylan, Isabelle P; Erickson, Timothy

2018-06-01

Climate change has been scientifically documented, and its effects on wildlife have been prognosticated. We sought to predict the overall impact of climate change on venomous terrestrial species. We hypothesize that given the close relationship between terrestrial venomous species and climate, a changing global environment may result in increased species migration, geographical redistribution, and longer seasons for envenomation, which would have repercussions on human health. A retrospective analysis of environmental, ecological, and medical literature was performed with a focus on climate change, toxinology, and future modeling specific to venomous terrestrial creatures. Species included venomous reptiles, snakes, arthropods, spiders, and Hymenoptera (ants and bees). Animals that are vectors of hemorrhagic infectious disease (eg, mosquitos, ticks) were excluded. Our review of the literature indicates that changes to climatic norms will have a potentially dramatic effect on terrestrial venomous creatures. Empirical evidence demonstrates that geographic distributions of many species have already shifted due to changing climatic conditions. Given that most terrestrial venomous species are ectotherms closely tied to ambient temperature, and that climate change is shifting temperature zones away from the equator, further significant distribution and population changes should be anticipated. For those species able to migrate to match the changing temperatures, new geographical locations may open. For those species with limited distribution capabilities, the rate of climate change may accelerate faster than species can adapt, causing population declines. Specifically, poisonous snakes and spiders will likely maintain their population numbers but will shift their geographic distribution to traditionally temperate zones more often inhabited by humans. Fire ants and Africanized honey bees are expected to have an expanded range distribution due to predicted warming trends

Modelling the potential spatial distribution of mosquito species using three different techniques

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cianci, D.; Hartemink, N.; Ibáñez-Justicia, A.

2015-01-01

Background: Models for the spatial distribution of vector species are important tools in the assessment of the risk of establishment and subsequent spread of vector-borne diseases. The aims of this study are to define the environmental conditions suitable for several mosquito species through species

Are species photosynthetic characteristics good predictors of seedling post-hurricane demographic patterns and species spatiotemporal distribution in a hurricane impacted wet montane forest?

Science.gov (United States)

Luke, Denneko; McLaren, Kurt

2018-05-01

In situ measurements of leaf level photosynthetic response to light were collected from seedlings of ten tree species from a tropical montane wet forest, the John Crow Mountains, Jamaica. A model-based recursive partitioning ('mob') algorithm was then used to identify species associations based on their fitted photosynthetic response curves. Leaf area dark respiration (RD) and light saturated maximum photosynthetic (Amax) rates were also used as 'mob' partitioning variables, to identify species associations based on seedling demographic patterns (from June 2007 to May 2010) following a hurricane (Aug. 2007) and the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of stems in 2006 and 2012. RD and Amax rates ranged from 1.14 to 2.02 μmol (CO2) m-2s-1 and 2.97-5.87 μmol (CO2) m-2s-1, respectively, placing the ten species in the range of intermediate shade tolerance. Several parsimonious species 'mob' groups were formed based on 1) interspecific differences among species response curves, 2) variations in post-hurricane seedling demographic trends and 3) RD rates and species spatiotemporal distribution patterns at aspects that are more or less exposed to hurricanes. The composition of parsimonious groupings based on photosynthetic curves was not concordant with the groups based on demographic trends but was partially concordant with the RD - species spatiotemporal distribution groups. Our results indicated that the influence of photosynthetic characteristics on demographic traits and species distributions was not straightforward. Rather, there was a complex pattern of interaction between ecophysiological and demographic traits, which determined species successional status, post-hurricane response and ultimately, species distribution at our study site.

Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions.

Science.gov (United States)

Sekercioglu, Cagan H; Schneider, Stephen H; Fay, John P; Loarie, Scott R

2008-02-01

Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8 degrees C, projected a best guess of 400-550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1 degrees C warming) to 30.0% (6.4 degrees C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100-500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G.; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; Putten, Van Ingrid E.; Pecl, Gretta T.

2016-01-01

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species – or range shifts – across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of

Real - time Optimization of Distributed Energy Storage System Operation Strategy Based on Peak Load Shifting

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Qian; Lu, Guangqi; Li, Xiaoyu; Zhang, Yichi; Yun, Zejian; Bian, Di

2018-01-01

To take advantage of the energy storage system (ESS) sufficiently, the factors that the service life of the distributed energy storage system (DESS) and the load should be considered when establishing optimization model. To reduce the complexity of the load shifting of DESS in the solution procedure, the loss coefficient and the equal capacity ratio distribution principle were adopted in this paper. Firstly, the model was established considering the constraint conditions of the cycles, depth, power of the charge-discharge of the ESS, the typical daily load curves, as well. Then, dynamic programming method was used to real-time solve the model in which the difference of power Δs, the real-time revised energy storage capacity Sk and the permission error of depth of charge-discharge were introduced to optimize the solution process. The simulation results show that the optimized results was achieved when the load shifting in the load variance was not considered which means the charge-discharge of the energy storage system was not executed. In the meantime, the service life of the ESS would increase.

Molluscan indicator species and their potential use in ecological status assessment using species distribution modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Moraitis, Manos L; Tsikopoulou, Irini; Geropoulos, Antonios; Dimitriou, Panagiotis D; Papageorgiou, Nafsika; Giannoulaki, Marianna; Valavanis, Vasilis D; Karakassis, Ioannis

2018-05-24

Marine habitat assessment using indicator species through Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) was investigated. The bivalves: Corbula gibba and Flexopecten hyalinus were the indicator species characterizing disturbed and undisturbed areas respectively in terms of chlorophyll a concentration in Greece. The habitat suitability maps of these species reflected the overall ecological status of the area. The C. gibba model successfully predicted the occurrence of this species in areas with increased physical disturbance driven by chlorophyll a concentration, whereas the habitat map for F. hyalinus showed an increased probability of occurrence in chlorophyll-poor areas, affected mainly by salinity. We advocate the use of C. gibba as a proxy for eutrophication and the incorporation of this species in monitoring studies through SDM methods. For the Mediterranean Sea we suggest the use of F. hyalinus in SDM as an indicator of environmental stability and a possible forecasting tool for salinity fluctuations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sapling performance along resource gradients drives tree species distributions within and across tropical forests

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sterck, F.J.; Markesteijn, L.; Toledo, M.; Schieving, F.; Poorter, L.

2014-01-01

Niche differentiation is a major hypothesized determinant of species distributions, but its practical importance is heavily debated and its underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Trait-based approaches have been used to infer niche differentiation and predict species distributions. For

Small-scale shifting mosaics of two dominant grassland species: the possible role of soil-borne pathogens.

Science.gov (United States)

Olff, H; Hoorens, B; de Goede, R G M; van der Putten, W H; Gleichman, J M

2000-10-01

We analyzed the dynamics of dominant plant species in a grazed grassland over 17 years, and investigated whether local shifts in these dominant species, leading to vegetation mosaics, could be attributed to interactions between plants and soil-borne pathogens. We found that Festuca rubra and Carex arenaria locally alternated in abundance, with different sites close together behaving out of phase, resulting in a shifting mosaic. The net effect of killing all soil biota on the growth of these two species was investigated in a greenhouse experiment using gamma radiation, controlling for possible effects of sterilization on soil chemistry. Both plant species showed a strong net positive response to soil sterilization, indicating that pathogens (e.g., nematodes, pathogenic fungi) outweighed the effect of mutualists (e.g., mycorrhizae). This positive growth response towards soil sterilization appeared not be due to effects of sterilization on soil chemistry. Growth of Carex was strongly reduced by soil-borne pathogens (86% reduction relative to its growth on sterilized soil) on soil from a site where this species decreased during the last decade (and Festuca increased), while it was reduced much less (50%) on soil from a nearby site where it increased in abundance during the last decade. Similarly, Festuca was reduced more (67%) on soil from the site where it decreased (and Carex increased) than on soil from the site where it increased (55%, the site where Carex decreased). Plant-feeding nematodes showed high small-scale variation in densities, and we related this variation to the observed growth reductions in both plant species. Carex growth on unsterilized soil was significantly more reduced at higher densities of plant-feeding nematodes, while the growth reduction in Festuca was independent of plant-feeding nematode densities. At high plant-feeding nematode densities, growth of Carex was reduced more than Festuca, while at low nematode densities the opposite was found

Associations between number of consecutive night shifts and impairment of neurobehavioral performance during a subsequent simulated night shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Magee, Michelle; Sletten, Tracey L; Ferguson, Sally A; Grunstein, Ronald R; Anderson, Clare; Kennaway, David J; Lockley, Steven W; Rajaratnam, Shantha Mw

2016-05-01

This study aimed to investigate sleep and circadian phase in the relationships between neurobehavioral performance and the number of consecutive shifts worked. Thirty-four shift workers [20 men, mean age 31.8 (SD 10.9) years] worked 2-7 consecutive night shifts immediately prior to a laboratory-based, simulated night shift. For 7 days prior, participants worked their usual shift sequence, and sleep was assessed with logs and actigraphy. Participants completed a 10-minute auditory psychomotor vigilance task (PVT) at the start (~21:00 hours) and end (~07:00 hours) of the simulated night shift. Mean reaction times (RT), number of lapses and RT distribution was compared between those who worked 2-3 consecutive night shifts versus those who worked 4-7 shifts. Following 4-7 shifts, night shift workers had significantly longer mean RT at the start and end of shift, compared to those who worked 2-3 shifts. The slowest and fastest 10% RT were significantly slower at the start, but not end, of shift among participants who worked 4-7 nights. Those working 4-7 nights also demonstrated a broader RT distribution at the start and end of shift and had significantly slower RT based on cumulative distribution analysis (5 (th), 25 (th), 50 (th), 75 (th)percentiles at the start of shift; 75th percentile at the end of shift). No group differences in sleep parameters were found for 7 days and 24 hours prior to the simulated night shift. A greater number of consecutive night shifts has a negative impact on neurobehavioral performance, likely due to cognitive slowing.

Sample sizes and model comparison metrics for species distribution models

Science.gov (United States)

B.B. Hanberry; H.S. He; D.C. Dey

2012-01-01

Species distribution models use small samples to produce continuous distribution maps. The question of how small a sample can be to produce an accurate model generally has been answered based on comparisons to maximum sample sizes of 200 observations or fewer. In addition, model comparisons often are made with the kappa statistic, which has become controversial....

Mid-winter European dabbling duck distributions are not linked to species body mass

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dalby, Lars; Delany, Simon; Fox, Anthony David

are likely to play a major role in determining the wintering distribution of short- to medium-distance migratory bird species and its inter-annual variability. As avian thermoregulatory costs scale allometrically with body size, we predicted that the mean mid-winter temperature experienced by six species...... of dabbling ducks wintering in Western Europe would be negatively correlated with body mass. We found no evidence for such a relationship in a large-scale analysis testing for a link between temperature and dabbling duck distributions, suggesting that other factors such as those related to feeding ecology......In order to understand the current changes and to predict future changes in wintering dabbling duck (Anas sp.) distributions in response to climate change, it is important to understand how species distribute themselves on a continental scale in response to temperature. Thermoregulatory costs...

Elevational shifts in thermal suitability for mountain pine beetle population growth in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Barbara J. Bentz; Jacob P. Duncan; James A. Powell

2016-01-01

Future forests are being shaped by changing climate and disturbances. Climate change is causing large-scale forest declines globally, in addition to distributional shifts of many tree species. Because environmental cues dictate insect seasonality and population success, climate change is also influencing tree-killing bark beetles. The mountain pine beetle,...

Disparity in elevational shifts of European trees in response to recent climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Rabasa, Sonia G; Granda, Elena; Benavides, Raquel; Kunstler, Georges; Espelta, Josep M; Ogaya, Romá; Peñuelas, Josep; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Gil, Wojciech; Grodzki, Wojciech; Ambrozy, Slawomir; Bergh, Johan; Hódar, José A; Zamora, Regino; Valladares, Fernando

2013-08-01

Predicting climate-driven changes in plant distribution is crucial for biodiversity conservation and management under recent climate change. Climate warming is expected to induce movement of species upslope and towards higher latitudes. However, the mechanisms and physiological processes behind the altitudinal and latitudinal distribution range of a tree species are complex and depend on each tree species features and vary over ontogenetic stages. We investigated the altitudinal distribution differences between juvenile and adult individuals of seven major European tree species along elevational transects covering a wide latitudinal range from southern Spain (37°N) to northern Sweden (67°N). By comparing juvenile and adult distributions (shifts on the optimum position and the range limits) we assessed the response of species to present climate conditions in relation to previous conditions that prevailed when adults were established. Mean temperature increased by 0.86 °C on average at our sites during the last decade compared with previous 30-year period. Only one of the species studied, Abies alba, matched the expected predictions under the observed warming, with a maximum abundance of juveniles at higher altitudes than adults. Three species, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, showed an opposite pattern while for other three species, such as Quercus ilex, Acer pseudoplatanus and Q. petraea, we were no able to detect changes in distribution. These findings are in contrast with theoretical predictions and show that tree responses to climate change are complex and are obscured not only by other environmental factors but also by internal processes related to ontogeny and demography. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Temperature effects on gametophyte life-history traits and geographic distribution of two cryptic kelp species.

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L Valeria Oppliger

Full Text Available A major determinant of the geographic distribution of a species is expected to be its physiological response to changing abiotic variables over its range. The range of a species often corresponds to the geographic extent of temperature regimes the organism can physiologically tolerate. Many species have very distinct life history stages that may exhibit different responses to environmental factors. In this study we emphasized the critical role of the haploid microscopic stage (gametophyte of the life cycle to explain the difference of edge distribution of two related kelp species. Lessonia nigrescens was recently identified as two cryptic species occurring in parapatry along the Chilean coast: one located north and the other south of a biogeographic boundary at latitude 29-30°S. Six life history traits from microscopic stages were identified and estimated under five treatments of temperature in eight locations distributed along the Chilean coast in order to (1 estimate the role of temperature in the present distribution of the two cryptic L. nigrescens species, (2 compare marginal populations to central populations of the two cryptic species. In addition, we created a periodic matrix model to estimate the population growth rate (λ at the five temperature treatments. Differential tolerance to temperature was demonstrated between the two species, with the gametophytes of the Northern species being more tolerant to higher temperatures than gametophytes from the south. Second, the two species exhibited different life history strategies with a shorter haploid phase in the Northern species contrasted with considerable vegetative growth in the Southern species haploid stage. These results provide strong ecological evidence for the differentiation process of the two cryptic species and show local adaptation of the life cycle at the range limits of the distribution. Ecological and evolutionary implications of these findings are discussed.

[Relation between species distribution of plant community and soil factors under grazing in alpine meadow].

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Yu Jie; Yang, Si Wei; Wang, Gui Zhen; Liu, Li; Du, Guo Zhen; Hua, Li Min

2017-12-01

The research selected the alpine meadow located in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the changes of vegetation community and soil properties under different grazing intensities, as well as the quantitative relation between the distribution patterns of plant species and the physical and chemical properties of soil. The results showed that the grazing caused the differentiation of the initial vegetation community with the dominant plants, Elymus nutans and Stipa grandis. In the plots with high and low grazing intensities, the dominant plants had changed to Kobresia humilis and Melissitus ruthenica, and E. nutans and Poa crymophila, respectively. With the increase of grazing intensity, the plant richness, importance value and biomass were significantly decreased. The sequence of plant species importance value in each plot against grazing intensity could be fitted by a logarithmic model. The number of required plant species was reduced while the importance value of the remaining plant species accounted for 50% of the importance value in the whole vegetation community. The available P, available K, soil compaction, soil water content, stable infiltration rate and large aggregate index were significantly changed with grazing intensity, however, the changes were different. The CCA ordination showed that the soil compaction was the key factor affecting the distribution pattern of the plant species under grazing. The variance decomposition indicated that the soil factors together explained 30.5% of the distribution of the plant species, in particular the soil physical properties alone explained 22.8% of the distribution of the plant species, which had the highest rate of contribution to the plant species distribution. The soil physical properties affected the distribution pattern of plant species on grazed alpine meadow.

Influence of shifting cultivation practices on soil-plant-beetle interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ibrahim, Kalibulla Syed; Momin, Marcy D; Lalrotluanga, R; Rosangliana, David; Ghatak, Souvik; Zothansanga, R; Kumar, Nachimuthu Senthil; Gurusubramanian, Guruswami

2016-08-01

Shifting cultivation (jhum) is a major land use practice in Mizoram. It was considered as an eco-friendly and efficient method when the cycle duration was long (15-30 years), but it poses the problem of land degradation and threat to ecology when shortened (4-5 years) due to increased intensification of farming systems. Studying beetle community structure is very helpful in understanding how shifting cultivation affects the biodiversity features compared to natural forest system. The present study examines the beetle species diversity and estimates the effects of shifting cultivation practices on the beetle assemblages in relation to change in tree species composition and soil nutrients. Scarabaeidae and Carabidae were observed to be the dominant families in the land use systems studied. Shifting cultivation practice significantly (P PERMANOVA), permutational multivariate analysis of dispersion (PERMDISP)) statistical analyses. Besides changing the tree species composition and affecting the soil fertility, shifting cultivation provides less suitable habitat conditions for the beetle species. Bioindicator analysis categorized the beetle species into forest specialists, anthropogenic specialists (shifting cultivation habitat specialist), and habitat generalists. Molecular analysis of bioindicator beetle species was done using mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) marker to validate the beetle species and describe genetic variation among them in relation to heterogeneity, transition/transversion bias, codon usage bias, evolutionary distance, and substitution pattern. The present study revealed the fact that shifting cultivation practice significantly affects the beetle species in terms of biodiversity pattern as well as evolutionary features. Spatiotemporal assessment of soil-plant-beetle interactions in shifting cultivation system and their influence in land degradation and ecology will be helpful in making biodiversity conservation decisions in the

Quantifying shark distribution patterns and species-habitat associations: implications of marine park zoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Espinoza, Mario; Cappo, Mike; Heupel, Michelle R; Tobin, Andrew J; Simpfendorfer, Colin A

2014-01-01

Quantifying shark distribution patterns and species-specific habitat associations in response to geographic and environmental drivers is critical to assessing risk of exposure to fishing, habitat degradation, and the effects of climate change. The present study examined shark distribution patterns, species-habitat associations, and marine reserve use with baited remote underwater video stations (BRUVS) along the entire Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) over a ten year period. Overall, 21 species of sharks from five families and two orders were recorded. Grey reef Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos, silvertip C. albimarginatus, tiger Galeocerdo cuvier, and sliteye Loxodon macrorhinus sharks were the most abundant species (>64% of shark abundances). Multivariate regression trees showed that hard coral cover produced the primary split separating shark assemblages. Four indicator species had consistently higher abundances and contributed to explaining most of the differences in shark assemblages: C. amblyrhynchos, C. albimarginatus, G. cuvier, and whitetip reef Triaenodon obesus sharks. Relative distance along the GBRMP had the greatest influence on shark occurrence and species richness, which increased at both ends of the sampling range (southern and northern sites) relative to intermediate latitudes. Hard coral cover and distance across the shelf were also important predictors of shark distribution. The relative abundance of sharks was significantly higher in non-fished sites, highlighting the conservation value and benefits of the GBRMP zoning. However, our results also showed that hard coral cover had a large effect on the abundance of reef-associated shark species, indicating that coral reef health may be important for the success of marine protected areas. Therefore, understanding shark distribution patterns, species-habitat associations, and the drivers responsible for those patterns is essential for developing sound management and conservation approaches.

Long-term shifts in the phenology of rare and endemic Rocky Mountain plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Munson, Seth M; Sher, Anna A

2015-08-01

• Mountainous regions support high plant productivity, diversity, and endemism, yet are highly vulnerable to climate change. Historical records and model predictions show increasing temperatures across high elevation regions including the Southern Rocky Mountains, which can have a strong influence on the performance and distribution of montane plant species. Rare plant species can be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their limited abundance and distribution.• We tracked the phenology of rare and endemic species, which are identified as imperiled, across three different habitat types with herbarium records to determine if flowering time has changed over the last century, and if phenological change was related to shifts in climate.• We found that the flowering date of rare species has accelerated 3.1 d every decade (42 d total) since the late 1800s, with plants in sagebrush interbasins showing the strongest accelerations in phenology. High winter temperatures were associated with the acceleration of phenology in low elevation sagebrush and barren river habitats, whereas high spring temperatures explained accelerated phenology in the high elevation alpine habitat. In contrast, high spring temperatures delayed the phenology of plant species in the two low-elevation habitats and precipitation had mixed effects depending on the season.• These results provide evidence for large shifts in the phenology of rare Rocky Mountain plants related to climate, which can have strong effects on plant fitness, the abundance of associated wildlife, and the future of plant conservation in mountainous regions. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Fine structure of Tibetan kefir grains and their yeast distribution, diversity, and shift.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Man Lu

Full Text Available Tibetan kefir grains (TKGs, a kind of natural starter for fermented milk in Tibet, China, host various microorganisms of lactic acid bacteria, yeasts, and occasionally acetic acid bacteria in a polysaccharide/protein matrix. In the present study, the fine structure of TKGs was studied to shed light on this unusual symbiosis with stereomicroscopy and thin sections. The results reveal that TKGs consist of numerous small grain units, which are characterized by a hollow globular structure with a diameter between 2.0 and 9.0 mm and a wall thickness of approximately 200 µm. A polyhedron-like net structure, formed mainly by the bacteria, was observed in the wall of the grain units, which has not been reported previously to our knowledge. Towards the inside of the grain unit, the polyhedron-like net structures became gradually larger in diameter and fewer in number. Such fine structures may play a crucial role in the stability of the grains. Subsequently, the distribution, diversity, and shift of yeasts in TKGs were investigated based on thin section, scanning electron microscopy, cloning and sequencing of D1/D2 of the 26S rRNA gene, real-time quantitative PCR, and in situ hybridization with specific fluorescence-labeled oligonucleotide probes. These show that (i yeasts appear to localize on the outer surface of the grains and grow normally together to form colonies embedded in the bacterial community; (ii the diversity of yeasts is relatively low on genus level with three dominant species--Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Kluyveromyces marxianus, and Yarrowia lipolytica; (iii S. cerevisiae is the stable predominant yeast species, while the composition of Kluyveromyces and Yarrowia are subject to change over time. Our results indicate that TKGs are relatively stable in structure, and culture conditions to some extent shape the microbial community and interaction in kefir grains. These findings pave the way for further study of the specific symbiotic

Fine Structure of Tibetan Kefir Grains and Their Yeast Distribution, Diversity, and Shift

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Man; Wang, Xingxing; Sun, Guowei; Qin, Bing; Xiao, Jinzhou; Yan, Shuling; Pan, Yingjie; Wang, Yongjie

2014-01-01

Tibetan kefir grains (TKGs), a kind of natural starter for fermented milk in Tibet, China, host various microorganisms of lactic acid bacteria, yeasts, and occasionally acetic acid bacteria in a polysaccharide/protein matrix. In the present study, the fine structure of TKGs was studied to shed light on this unusual symbiosis with stereomicroscopy and thin sections. The results reveal that TKGs consist of numerous small grain units, which are characterized by a hollow globular structure with a diameter between 2.0 and 9.0 mm and a wall thickness of approximately 200 µm. A polyhedron-like net structure, formed mainly by the bacteria, was observed in the wall of the grain units, which has not been reported previously to our knowledge. Towards the inside of the grain unit, the polyhedron-like net structures became gradually larger in diameter and fewer in number. Such fine structures may play a crucial role in the stability of the grains. Subsequently, the distribution, diversity, and shift of yeasts in TKGs were investigated based on thin section, scanning electron microscopy, cloning and sequencing of D1/D2 of the 26S rRNA gene, real-time quantitative PCR, and in situ hybridization with specific fluorescence-labeled oligonucleotide probes. These show that (i) yeasts appear to localize on the outer surface of the grains and grow normally together to form colonies embedded in the bacterial community; (ii) the diversity of yeasts is relatively low on genus level with three dominant species – Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Kluyveromyces marxianus, and Yarrowia lipolytica; (iii) S. cerevisiae is the stable predominant yeast species, while the composition of Kluyveromyces and Yarrowia are subject to change over time. Our results indicate that TKGs are relatively stable in structure, and culture conditions to some extent shape the microbial community and interaction in kefir grains. These findings pave the way for further study of the specific symbiotic associations between S

Attenuation of species abundance distributions by sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Shimadzu, Hideyasu; Darnell, Ross

2015-01-01

Quantifying biodiversity aspects such as species presence/ absence, richness and abundance is an important challenge to answer scientific and resource management questions. In practice, biodiversity can only be assessed from biological material taken by surveys, a difficult task given limited time and resources. A type of random sampling, or often called sub-sampling, is a commonly used technique to reduce the amount of time and effort for investigating large quantities of biological samples. However, it is not immediately clear how (sub-)sampling affects the estimate of biodiversity aspects from a quantitative perspective. This paper specifies the effect of (sub-)sampling as attenuation of the species abundance distribution (SAD), and articulates how the sampling bias is induced to the SAD by random sampling. The framework presented also reveals some confusion in previous theoretical studies. PMID:26064626

Mechanistic species distribution modelling as a link between physiology and conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Tyler G; Diamond, Sarah E; Kelly, Morgan W

2015-01-01

Climate change conservation planning relies heavily on correlative species distribution models that estimate future areas of occupancy based on environmental conditions encountered in present-day ranges. The approach benefits from rapid assessment of vulnerability over a large number of organisms, but can have poor predictive power when transposed to novel environments and reveals little in the way of causal mechanisms that define changes in species distribution or abundance. Having conservation planning rely largely on this single approach also increases the risk of policy failure. Mechanistic models that are parameterized with physiological information are expected to be more robust when extrapolating distributions to future environmental conditions and can identify physiological processes that set range boundaries. Implementation of mechanistic species distribution models requires knowledge of how environmental change influences physiological performance, and because this information is currently restricted to a comparatively small number of well-studied organisms, use of mechanistic modelling in the context of climate change conservation is limited. In this review, we propose that the need to develop mechanistic models that incorporate physiological data presents an opportunity for physiologists to contribute more directly to climate change conservation and advance the field of conservation physiology. We begin by describing the prevalence of species distribution modelling in climate change conservation, highlighting the benefits and drawbacks of both mechanistic and correlative approaches. Next, we emphasize the need to expand mechanistic models and discuss potential metrics of physiological performance suitable for integration into mechanistic models. We conclude by summarizing other factors, such as the need to consider demography, limiting broader application of mechanistic models in climate change conservation. Ideally, modellers, physiologists and

Citizen science contributes to our knowledge of invasive plant species distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Crall, Alycia W.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E.; Panke, Brendon; Renz, Mark; Stohlgren, Thomas

2015-01-01

Citizen science is commonly cited as an effective approach to expand the scale of invasive species data collection and monitoring. However, researchers often hesitate to use these data due to concerns over data quality. In light of recent research on the quality of data collected by volunteers, we aimed to demonstrate the extent to which citizen science data can increase sampling coverage, fill gaps in species distributions, and improve habitat suitability models compared to professionally generated data sets used in isolation. We combined data sets from professionals and volunteers for five invasive plant species (Alliaria petiolata, Berberis thunbergii, Cirsium palustre, Pastinaca sativa, Polygonum cuspidatum) in portions of Wisconsin. Volunteers sampled counties not sampled by professionals for three of the five species. Volunteers also added presence locations within counties not included in professional data sets, especially in southern portions of the state where professional monitoring activities had been minimal. Volunteers made a significant contribution to the known distribution, environmental gradients sampled, and the habitat suitability of P. cuspidatum. Models generated with professional data sets for the other four species performed reasonably well according to AUC values (>0.76). The addition of volunteer data did not greatly change model performance (AUC > 0.79) but did change the suitability surface generated by the models, making them more realistic. Our findings underscore the need to merge data from multiple sources to improve knowledge of current species distributions, and to predict their movement under present and future environmental conditions. The efficiency and success of these approaches require that monitoring efforts involve multiple stakeholders in continuous collaboration via established monitoring networks.

Fit-for-purpose: species distribution model performance depends on evaluation criteria - Dutch Hoverflies as a case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Carvalheiro, Luísa G; Polce, Chiara; van Loon, E Emiel; Raes, Niels; Reemer, Menno; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C

2013-01-01

Understanding species distributions and the factors limiting them is an important topic in ecology and conservation, including in nature reserve selection and predicting climate change impacts. While Species Distribution Models (SDM) are the main tool used for these purposes, choosing the best SDM algorithm is not straightforward as these are plentiful and can be applied in many different ways. SDM are used mainly to gain insight in 1) overall species distributions, 2) their past-present-future probability of occurrence and/or 3) to understand their ecological niche limits (also referred to as ecological niche modelling). The fact that these three aims may require different models and outputs is, however, rarely considered and has not been evaluated consistently. Here we use data from a systematically sampled set of species occurrences to specifically test the performance of Species Distribution Models across several commonly used algorithms. Species range in distribution patterns from rare to common and from local to widespread. We compare overall model fit (representing species distribution), the accuracy of the predictions at multiple spatial scales, and the consistency in selection of environmental correlations all across multiple modelling runs. As expected, the choice of modelling algorithm determines model outcome. However, model quality depends not only on the algorithm, but also on the measure of model fit used and the scale at which it is used. Although model fit was higher for the consensus approach and Maxent, Maxent and GAM models were more consistent in estimating local occurrence, while RF and GBM showed higher consistency in environmental variables selection. Model outcomes diverged more for narrowly distributed species than for widespread species. We suggest that matching study aims with modelling approach is essential in Species Distribution Models, and provide suggestions how to do this for different modelling aims and species' data

Alien plant species list and distribution for Camdeboo National Park, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mmoto L. Masubelele

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Protected areas globally are threatened by the potential negative impacts that invasive alien plants pose, and Camdeboo National Park (CNP, South Africa, is no exception. Alien plants have been recorded in the CNP since 1981, before it was proclaimed a national park by South African National Parks in 2005. This is the first publication of a list of alien plants in and around the CNP. Distribution maps of some of the first recorded alien plant species are also presented and discussed. To date, 39 species of alien plants have been recorded, of which 13 are invasive and one is a transformer weed. The majority of alien plant species in the park are herbaceous (39% and succulent (24% species. The most widespread alien plant species in the CNP are Atriplex inflata (= A. lindleyi subsp. inflata, Salsola tragus (= S. australis and cacti species, especially Opuntia ficus-indica. Eradication and control measures that have been used for specific problematic alien plant species are described. Conservation implications: This article represents the first step in managing invasive alien plants and includes the collation of a species list and basic information on their distribution in and around the protected area. This is important for enabling effective monitoring of both new introductions and the distribution of species already present. We present the first species list and distribution information for Camdeboo National Park.

Current state of the art for statistical modeling of species distributions [Chapter 16

Science.gov (United States)

Troy M. Hegel; Samuel A. Cushman; Jeffrey Evans; Falk Huettmann

2010-01-01

Over the past decade the number of statistical modelling tools available to ecologists to model species' distributions has increased at a rapid pace (e.g. Elith et al. 2006; Austin 2007), as have the number of species distribution models (SDM) published in the literature (e.g. Scott et al. 2002). Ten years ago, basic logistic regression (Hosmer and Lemeshow 2000)...

Bias correction in species distribution models: pooling survey and collection data for multiple species.

Science.gov (United States)

Fithian, William; Elith, Jane; Hastie, Trevor; Keith, David A

2015-04-01

Presence-only records may provide data on the distributions of rare species, but commonly suffer from large, unknown biases due to their typically haphazard collection schemes. Presence-absence or count data collected in systematic, planned surveys are more reliable but typically less abundant.We proposed a probabilistic model to allow for joint analysis of presence-only and survey data to exploit their complementary strengths. Our method pools presence-only and presence-absence data for many species and maximizes a joint likelihood, simultaneously estimating and adjusting for the sampling bias affecting the presence-only data. By assuming that the sampling bias is the same for all species, we can borrow strength across species to efficiently estimate the bias and improve our inference from presence-only data.We evaluate our model's performance on data for 36 eucalypt species in south-eastern Australia. We find that presence-only records exhibit a strong sampling bias towards the coast and towards Sydney, the largest city. Our data-pooling technique substantially improves the out-of-sample predictive performance of our model when the amount of available presence-absence data for a given species is scarceIf we have only presence-only data and no presence-absence data for a given species, but both types of data for several other species that suffer from the same spatial sampling bias, then our method can obtain an unbiased estimate of the first species' geographic range.

Leapfrogging of tree species provenances? Interaction of microclimate and genetics on upward shifts in tree species' range limits

Science.gov (United States)

Reinhardt, K.; Castanha, C.; Germino, M. J.; Kueppers, L. M.

2011-12-01

The elevation limit of tree growth (alpine treeline) is considered to be constrained by environmental (i.e., thermal) and genetic (i.e., inability to adapt to climatic conditions) limitations to growth. Warming conditions due to climate change are predicted to cause upward shifts in the elevation of alpine treelines, through relief of cold-induced physiological limitations on seedling recruitment beyond current treeline boundaries. To determine how genetics and climate may interact to affect seedling establishment, we transplanted recently germinated seedlings from high- and low-elevation provenances (HI and LO, respectively) of Pinus flexilis in common gardens arrayed along an elevation and canopy gradient from subalpine forest into the alpine zone at Niwot Ridge, CO. We compared differences in microclimate and seedling ecophysiology among sites and between provenances. During the first summer of growth, frequently cloudy skies resulted in similar solar radiation incidence and air and soil temperatures among sites, despite nearly a 500 m-span in elevation across all sites. Preliminary findings suggest that survival of seedlings was similar between the lowest and highest elevations, with greater survival of LO (60%) compared to HI (40%) seedlings at each of these sites. Photosynthesis, carbon balance (photosynthesis/respiration), and conductance increased more than 2X with elevation for both provenances, and were 35-77% greater in LO seedlings compared to HI seedlings. There were no differences in dark-adapted chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) among sites or between provenances. However, in a common-garden study at low elevation, we observed no differences in carbon or water relations between two naturally-germinated mitochondrial haplotypes of P. flexilis (of narrow and wide-ranging distributions). We did observe water-related thresholds on seedling carbon balance and survival that occurred when soil volumetric water content dropped below 10% and seedling water

Competition and facilitation may lead to asymmetric range shift dynamics with climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Ettinger, Ailene; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

2017-09-01

Forecasts of widespread range shifts with climate change stem from assumptions that climate drives species' distributions. However, local adaptation and biotic interactions also influence range limits and thus may impact range shifts. Despite the potential importance of these factors, few studies have directly tested their effects on performance at range limits. We address how population-level variation and biotic interactions may affect range shifts by transplanting seeds and seedlings of western North American conifers of different origin populations into different competitive neighborhoods within and beyond their elevational ranges and monitoring their performance. We find evidence that competition with neighboring trees limits performance within current ranges, but that interactions between adults and juveniles switch from competitive to facilitative at upper range limits. Local adaptation had weaker effects on performance that did not predictably vary with range position or seed origin. Our findings suggest that competitive interactions may slow species turnover within forests at lower range limits, whereas facilitative interactions may accelerate the pace of tree expansions upward near timberline. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An analysis of plant species distributions on the floodplain of the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Furthermore, several ruderal species were restricted to elevated sites in close proximity to the channel, occurring on recently formed point bars which are the product of fluvial processes. Disturbance in the form of sediment deposition on point bars is thus an important determinant of species distribution on floodplains of the ...

Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

Science.gov (United States)

Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

2016-02-01

Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

Mapping National Plant Biodiversity Patterns in South Korea with the MARS Species Distribution Model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyeyeong Choe

Full Text Available Accurate information on the distribution of existing species is crucial to assess regional biodiversity. However, data inventories are insufficient in many areas. We examine the ability of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS multi-response species distribution model to overcome species' data limitations and portray plant species distribution patterns for 199 South Korean plant species. The study models species with two or more observations, examines their contribution to national patterns of species richness, provides a sensitivity analysis of different range threshold cutoff approaches for modeling species' ranges, and presents considerations for species modeling at fine spatial resolution. We ran MARS models for each species and tested four threshold methods to transform occurrence probabilities into presence or absence range maps. Modeled occurrence probabilities were extracted at each species' presence points, and the mean, median, and one standard deviation (SD calculated to define data-driven thresholds. A maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity threshold was also calculated, and the range maps from the four cutoffs were tested using independent plant survey data. The single SD values were the best threshold tested for minimizing omission errors and limiting species ranges to areas where the associated occurrence data were correctly classed. Eight individual species range maps for rare plant species were identified that are potentially affected by resampling predictor variables to fine spatial scales. We portray spatial patterns of high species richness by assessing the combined range maps from three classes of species: all species, endangered and endemic species, and range-size rarity of all species, which could be used in conservation planning for South Korea. The MARS model is promising for addressing the common problem of few species occurrence records. However, projected species ranges are highly dependent on the

Mercury affects the distribution of culturable species of Pseudomonas in soil

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holtze, Maria Sommer; Nielsen, Preben; Ekelund, Flemming

2006-01-01

Pseudomonas bacteria isolated during 52 days on Gould's S1 agar from soil spiked with 0, 3.5 and 15 mg Hg(II) kg soil(-1) were characterised to reveal whether mercury affected them differently. Isolates from the treatments with 0 and 15 mg Hg kg(-1) were characterised using FT-IR characterisation...... was almost exclusively restricted to P. frederiksbergensis and P. migulae groups. We conclude that Hg caused a shift in the dominating species of culturable Pseudomonas....

Eye blinking in an avian species is associated with gaze shifts.

Science.gov (United States)

Yorzinski, Jessica L

2016-08-30

Even when animals are actively monitoring their environment, they lose access to visual information whenever they blink. They can strategically time their blinks to minimize information loss and improve visual functioning but we have little understanding of how this process operates in birds. This study therefore examined blinking in freely-moving peacocks (Pavo cristatus) to determine the relationship between their blinks, gaze shifts, and context. Peacocks wearing a telemetric eye-tracker were exposed to a taxidermy predator (Vulpes vulpes) and their blinks and gaze shifts were recorded. Peacocks blinked during the majority of their gaze shifts, especially when gaze shifts were large, thereby timing their blinks to coincide with periods when visual information is already suppressed. They inhibited their blinks the most when they exhibited high rates of gaze shifts and were thus highly alert. Alternative hypotheses explaining the link between blinks and gaze shifts are discussed.

Species composition and geographical distribution of Saharan scorpion fauna, Morocco

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Oulaid Touloun

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Objective: To describe the species composition of scorpions and to study its geographical distribution in Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra and Dakhla-Oued Ed Dahab regions in July 2014. Methods: To locate scorpions, the ground was examined through searching the places under the stones, rocks and in burrows. The nocturnal missions were also conducted using portable ultraviolet lamps. The scorpions were subsequently identified in the laboratory. Results: The results of the investigations in these regions showed the presence of five scorpion species, two of which Androctonus gonneti and Buthus bonito were endemic in Morocco. Conclusions: This work is allowed to complete the inventory of the studied scorpion fauna and provides some considerations on the distribution patterns in the study area.

Topographic and spatial controls of palm species distributions in a montane rain forest, southern Ecuador

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svenning, J.-C.; Harlev, D.; Sørensen, M.M.

2009-01-01

The northern Andes harbour a flora that is as species-rich or even richer than the 18-times larger lowland Amazon basin. Gaining an understanding of how the high species richness of the Andean region is generated and maintained is therefore of particular interest. Environmental sorting due......). Mantel tests and indicator species analysis showed that both topography and spatial location imposed strong controls on palm species distributions at the study site. Our results suggest that species distributions in the studied montane forest landscape were partly determined by the species' habitat...... distributions at the study site. Other factors must also be involved, notably wind-exposure and hydrology, as discussed for lowland palm communities. Our results show that to understand plant community assembly in the tropical montane forests of the Andes it is too simple to focus just on environmental sorting...

Species distributions, quantum theory, and the enhancement of biodiversity measures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Real, Raimundo; Barbosa, A. Márcia; Bull, Joseph William

2017-01-01

Species distributions are typically represented by records of their observed occurrence at a given spatial and temporal scale. Such records are inevitably incomplete and contingent on the spatial–temporal circumstances under which the observations were made. Moreover, organisms may respond...... biodiversity”. We show how conceptualizing species’ distributions in this way could help overcome important weaknesses in current biodiversity metrics, both in theory and by using a worked case study of mammal distributions in Spain over the last decade. We propose that considerable theoretical advances could...

Effect of species rarity on the accuracy of species distribution models for reptiles and amphibians in southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Franklin, J.; Wejnert, K.E.; Hathaway, S.A.; Rochester, C.J.; Fisher, R.N.

2009-01-01

Aim: Several studies have found that more accurate predictive models of species' occurrences can be developed for rarer species; however, one recent study found the relationship between range size and model performance to be an artefact of sample prevalence, that is, the proportion of presence versus absence observations in the data used to train the model. We examined the effect of model type, species rarity class, species' survey frequency, detectability and manipulated sample prevalence on the accuracy of distribution models developed for 30 reptile and amphibian species. Location: Coastal southern California, USA. Methods: Classification trees, generalized additive models and generalized linear models were developed using species presence and absence data from 420 locations. Model performance was measured using sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plot based on twofold cross-validation, or on bootstrapping. Predictors included climate, terrain, soil and vegetation variables. Species were assigned to rarity classes by experts. The data were sampled to generate subsets with varying ratios of presences and absences to test for the effect of sample prevalence. Join count statistics were used to characterize spatial dependence in the prediction errors. Results: Species in classes with higher rarity were more accurately predicted than common species, and this effect was independent of sample prevalence. Although positive spatial autocorrelation remained in the prediction errors, it was weaker than was observed in the species occurrence data. The differences in accuracy among model types were slight. Main conclusions: Using a variety of modelling methods, more accurate species distribution models were developed for rarer than for more common species. This was presumably because it is difficult to discriminate suitable from unsuitable habitat for habitat generalists, and not as an artefact of the

Indigenous knowledge and science unite to reveal spatial and temporal dimensions of distributional shift in wildlife of conservation concern.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christina N Service

Full Text Available Range shifts among wildlife can occur rapidly and impose cascading ecological, economic, and cultural consequences. However, occurrence data used to define distributional limits derived from scientific approaches are often outdated for wide ranging and elusive species, especially in remote environments. Accordingly, our aim was to amalgamate indigenous and western scientific evidence of grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis records and detail a potential range shift on the central coast of British Columbia, Canada. In addition, we test the hypothesis that data from each method yield similar results, as well as illustrate the complementary nature of this coupled approach. Combining information from traditional and local ecological knowledge (TEK/LEK interviews with remote camera, genetic, and hunting data revealed that grizzly bears are now present on 10 islands outside their current management boundary. LEK interview data suggested this expansion has accelerated over the last 10 years. Both approaches provided complementary details and primarily affirmed one another: all islands with scientific evidence for occupation had consistent TEK/LEK evidence. Moreover, our complementary methods approach enabled a more spatially and temporally detailed account than either method would have afforded alone. In many cases, knowledge already held by local indigenous people could provide timely and inexpensive data about changing ecological processes. However, verifying the accuracy of scientific and experiential knowledge by pairing sources at the same spatial scale allows for increased confidence and detail. A similarly coupled approach may be useful across taxa in many regions.

Phenological Shifts in Animals Under Contemporary Climate Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Visser, M.E.; Roitberg, Bernard D.

2017-01-01

One of the best documented impacts of climate change has been on the seasonal timing, or phenology, of species. There are clear shifts in all taxonomic groups in terrestrial, aquatic, and marine environments. There is, however, ample variation in the rate at which species shift in response to warmer

Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

Science.gov (United States)

Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

What are the most crucial soil factors for predicting the distribution of alpine plant species?

Science.gov (United States)

Buri, A.; Pinto-Figueroa, E.; Yashiro, E.; Guisan, A.

2017-12-01

Nowadays the use of species distribution models (SDM) is common to predict in space and time the distribution of organisms living in the critical zone. The realized environmental niche concept behind the development of SDM imply that many environmental factors must be accounted for simultaneously to predict species distributions. Climatic and topographic factors are often primary included, whereas soil factors are frequently neglected, mainly due to the paucity of soil information available spatially and temporally. Furthermore, among existing studies, most included soil pH only, or few other soil parameters. In this study we aimed at identifying what are the most crucial soil factors for explaining alpine plant distributions and, among those identified, which ones further improve the predictive power of plant SDMs. To test the relative importance of the soil factors, we performed plant SDMs using as predictors 52 measured soil properties of various types such as organic/inorganic compounds, chemical/physical properties, water related variables, mineral composition or grain size distribution. We added them separately to a standard set of topo-climatic predictors (temperature, slope, solar radiation and topographic position). We used ensemble forecasting techniques combining together several predictive algorithms to model the distribution of 116 plant species over 250 sites in the Swiss Alps. We recorded the variable importance for each model and compared the quality of the models including different soil proprieties (one at a time) as predictors to models having only topo-climatic variables as predictors. Results show that 46% of the soil proprieties tested become the second most important variable, after air temperature, to explain spatial distribution of alpine plants species. Moreover, we also assessed that addition of certain soil factors, such as bulk soil water density, could improve over 80% the quality of some plant species models. We confirm that soil p

Chemical shift imaging: a review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brateman, L.

1986-01-01

Chemical shift is the phenomenon that is seen when an isotope possessing a nuclear magnetic dipole moment resonates at a spectrum of resonance frequencies in a given magnetic field. These resonance frequencies, or chemical shifts, depend on the chemical environments of particular nuclei. Mapping the spatial distribution of nuclei associated with a particular chemical shift (e.g., hydrogen nuclei associated with water molecules or with lipid groups) is called chemical shift imaging. Several techniques of proton chemical shift imaging that have been applied in vivo are presented, and their clinical findings are reported and summarized. Acquiring high-resolution spectra for large numbers of volume elements in two or three dimensions may be prohibitive because of time constraints, but other methods of imaging lipid of water distributions (i.e., selective excitation, selective saturation, or variations in conventional magnetic resonance imaging pulse sequences) can provide chemical shift information. These techniques require less time, but they lack spectral information. Since fat deposition seen by chemical shift imaging may not be demonstrated by conventional magnetic resonance imaging, certain applications of chemical shift imaging, such as in the determination of fatty liver disease, have greater diagnostic utility than conventional magnetic resonance imaging. Furthermore, edge artifacts caused by chemical shift effects can be eliminated by certain selective methods of data acquisition employed in chemical shift imaging

Predicting Environmental Suitability for a Rare and Threatened Species (Lao Newt, Laotriton laoensis) Using Validated Species Distribution Models

Science.gov (United States)

Chunco, Amanda J.; Phimmachak, Somphouthone; Sivongxay, Niane; Stuart, Bryan L.

2013-01-01

The Lao newt (Laotriton laoensis) is a recently described species currently known only from northern Laos. Little is known about the species, but it is threatened as a result of overharvesting. We integrated field survey results with climate and altitude data to predict the geographic distribution of this species using the niche modeling program Maxent, and we validated these predictions by using interviews with local residents to confirm model predictions of presence and absence. The results of the validated Maxent models were then used to characterize the environmental conditions of areas predicted suitable for L. laoensis. Finally, we overlaid the resulting model with a map of current national protected areas in Laos to determine whether or not any land predicted to be suitable for this species is coincident with a national protected area. We found that both area under the curve (AUC) values and interview data provided strong support for the predictive power of these models, and we suggest that interview data could be used more widely in species distribution niche modeling. Our results further indicated that this species is mostly likely geographically restricted to high altitude regions (i.e., over 1,000 m elevation) in northern Laos and that only a minute fraction of suitable habitat is currently protected. This work thus emphasizes that increased protection efforts, including listing this species as endangered and the establishment of protected areas in the region predicted to be suitable for L. laoensis, are urgently needed. PMID:23555808

Relating biomarkers to whole-organism effects using species sensitivity distributions : A pilot study for marine species exposed to oil

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Smit, M.G.D.; Bechmann, R.K.; Hendriks, A.J.; Skadsheim, A.; Larsen, B.K.; Baussant, T.; Bamber, S.; Sannei, S.

2009-01-01

Biomarkers are widely used to measure environmental impacts on marine species. For many biomarkers, it is not clear how the signal levels relate to effects on the whole organism. This paper shows how species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) can be applied to evaluate multiple biomarker responses in

Geographic distribution of phlebotomine sandfly species (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Central-West Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

de Almeida, Paulo Silva; de Andrade, Andrey José; Sciamarelli, Alan; Raizer, Josué; Menegatti, Jaqueline Aparecida; Hermes, Sandra Cristina Negreli Moreira; de Carvalho, Maria do Socorro Laurentino; Gurgel-Gonçalves, Rodrigo

2015-01-01

This study updates the geographic distributions of phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil and analyses the climatic factors associated with their occurrence. The data were obtained from the entomology services of the state departments of health in Central-West Brazil, scientific collections and a literature review of articles from 1962-2014. Ecological niche models were produced for sandfly species with more than 20 occurrences using the Maxent algorithm and eight climate variables. In all, 2,803 phlebotomine records for 127 species were analysed. Nyssomyia whitmani, Evandromyia lenti and Lutzomyia longipalpis were the species with the greatest number of records and were present in all the biomes in Central-West Brazil. The models, which were produced for 34 species, indicated that the Cerrado areas in the central and western regions of Central-West Brazil were climatically more suitable to sandflies. The variables with the greatest influence on the models were the temperature in the coldest months and the temperature seasonality. The results show that phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil have different geographical distribution patterns and that climate conditions in essentially the entire region favour the occurrence of at least one Leishmania vector species, highlighting the need to maintain or intensify vector control and surveillance strategies. PMID:26018450

Species distribution of kobs (Kobus kob) in the Shai Hills Resource Reserve: an exploratory analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Antwi, Raymond Agyepong; Owusu, Erasmus Henaku; Attuquayefio, Daniel Korley

2018-02-01

The well-being of a species fundamentally rests on understanding its biology, home range, and distribution. The highly seasonal distribution of kobs poses conservation and management difficulties, particularly because of the capricious nature of the ever-changing ecological and vegetation dynamics of the ecosystem. Assessing the distribution of kobs and their associated vegetation provides insight into the vulnerability and conservation status of the species. Species distribution and habitat suitability maps were developed and created respectively for the management of kobs in the Shai Hills Resource Reserve. Kob presence data collected was analyzed using the spatial analyst and Hawth's tool in the ArcGIS software where the gradients of kob distribution within the protected area landscape were plotted and mapped. Seven environmental variables including location, land cover/use, slope/elevation, nearness to dams and rivers, temperature, and rainfall were considered to have effect on kob distribution pattern and as such used in the development of species distribution and habitat suitability maps. The results indicated that kobs in the Shai Hills Resource Reserve (SHRR) assume a clumped or contagious distribution pattern where individual kobs are aggregated in patches. Rainfall, temperature, nearness to dams and rivers, slope/elevation, and land cover/use had influence in kob distribution. Of all the cataloged habitats, 86, 13, and 1% were moderately suitable, suitable, and unsuitable, respectively. Long-term survival of species depends on adequately large areas of suitable habitats and opportunities for home range activities between such areas. As such, it is recommended that suitable habitats for kobs be dedicated and designated as conservation areas, especially areas along the western boundary.

Allopatric distribution and diversification without niche shift in a bryophyte-feeding basal moth lineage (Lepidoptera: Micropterigidae).

Science.gov (United States)

Imada, Yume; Kawakita, Atsushi; Kato, Makoto

2011-10-22

The Lepidoptera represent one of the most successful radiations of plant-feeding insects, which predominantly took place within angiosperms beginning in the Cretaceous period. Angiosperm colonization is thought to underlie the evolutionary success of the Lepidoptera because angiosperms provide an enormous range of niches for ecological speciation to take place. By contrast, the basal lepidopteran lineage, Micropterigidae, remained unassociated with angiosperms since Jurassic times but nevertheless achieved a modest diversity in the Japanese Archipelago. We explored the causes and processes of diversification of the Japanese micropterigid moths by performing molecular phylogenetic analysis and extensive ecological surveying. Phylogenetic analysis recovered a monophyletic group of approximately 25 East Asian endemic species that feed exclusively on the liverwort Conocephalum conicum, suggesting that niche shifts hardly played a role in their diversification. Consistent with the low flying ability of micropterigid moths, the distributions of the Conocephalum specialists are each localized and allopatric, indicating that speciation by geographical isolation has been the major process shaping the diversity of Japanese Micropterigidae. To our knowledge, this is the largest radiation of herbivorous insects that does not accompany any apparent niche differentiation. We suggest that the significance of non-ecological speciation during the diversification of the Lepidoptera is commonly underestimated.

Presence-only Species Distribution Modeling for King Mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) and its 31 Prey Species in the Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, X.; Simons, J.; Carollo, C.; Sterba-Boatwright, B.; Sadovski, A.

2016-02-01

Ecosystem based fisheries management has been broadly recognized throughout the world as a way to achieve better conservation. Therefore, there is a strong need for mapping of multi-species interactions or spatial distributions. Species distribution models are widely applied since information regarding the presence of species is usually only available for limited locations due to the high cost of fisheries surveys. Instead of regular presence and absence records, a large proportion of the fisheries survey data have only presence records. This makes the modeling problem one of one-class classification (presence only), which is much more complex than the regular two-class classification (presence/absence). In this study, four different presence-only species distribution algorithms (Bioclim, Domain, Mahal and Maxent) were applied using 13 environmental parameters (e.g., depth, DO, bottom types) as predictors to model the distribution of king mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) and its 31 prey species in the Gulf of Mexico (a total of 13625 georeferenced presence records from OBIS and GBIF were used). Five-fold cross validations were applied for each of the 128 (4 algorithms × 32 species) models. Area under curve (AUC) and correlation coefficient (R) were used to evaluate the model performances. The AUC of the models based on these four algorithms were 0.83±0.14, 0.77±0.16, 0.94±0.06 and 0.94±0.06, respectively; while R for the models were 0.47±0.27, 0.43±0.24, 0.27±0.16 and 0.76±0.16, respectively. Post hoc with Tukey's test showed that AUC for the Maxent-based models were significantly (pMexico to help managers better manage related fisheries resources.

Ice age distriutions of European small mammals: insights from species distribution modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fløjgaard, Camilla; Normand, Signe; Skov, Flemming

2009-01-01

limits corresponding to the limits of temperate or boreal forest or arctic tundra were used in the analysis. We developed predictive distribution models based on the species present-day European distributions and validated these against their present-day Siberian ranges. The models with the best...... lemmus and Microtus oeconomus), suitable climate was predicted from the Atlantic coast eastward across central Europe and into Russia. Main conclusions. Our results support the idea of more northerly refuge areas in Europe, indicating that boreal species would have found suitable living conditions over...

Species delimitation of the Hyphydrus ovatus complex in western Palaearctic with an update of species distributions (Coleoptera, Dytiscidae

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johannes Bergsten

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The species status of Hyphydrus anatolicus Guignot, 1957 and H. sanctus Sharp, 1882, previously often confused with the widespread H. ovatus (Linnaeus, 1760, are tested with molecular and morphological characters. Cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (CO1 was sequenced for 32 specimens of all three species. Gene-trees were inferred with parsimony, time-free bayesian and strict clock bayesian analyses. The GMYC model was used to estimate species limits. All three species were reciprocally monophyletic with CO1 and highly supported. The GMYC species delimitation analysis unequivocally delimited the three species with no other than the three species solution included in the confidence interval. A likelihood ratio test rejected the one-species null model. Important morphological characters distinguishing the species are provided and illustrated. New distributional data are given for the following species: Hyphydrus anatolicus from Slovakia and Ukraine, and H. aubei Ganglbauer, 1891, and H. sanctus from Turkey.

Re-shuffling of species with climate disruption: a no-analog future for California birds?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diana Stralberg

2009-09-01

Full Text Available By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based on current and future species-distribution models for 60 focal species. Projections of future no-analog communities based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly likely to host novel bird communities in the future. These no-analog areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species turnover. Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated consequences of novel species assemblages.

Identifying the rooted species tree from the distribution of unrooted gene trees under the coalescent.

Science.gov (United States)

Allman, Elizabeth S; Degnan, James H; Rhodes, John A

2011-06-01

Gene trees are evolutionary trees representing the ancestry of genes sampled from multiple populations. Species trees represent populations of individuals-each with many genes-splitting into new populations or species. The coalescent process, which models ancestry of gene copies within populations, is often used to model the probability distribution of gene trees given a fixed species tree. This multispecies coalescent model provides a framework for phylogeneticists to infer species trees from gene trees using maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches. Because the coalescent models a branching process over time, all trees are typically assumed to be rooted in this setting. Often, however, gene trees inferred by traditional phylogenetic methods are unrooted. We investigate probabilities of unrooted gene trees under the multispecies coalescent model. We show that when there are four species with one gene sampled per species, the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the unrooted species tree topology and some, but not all, information in the species tree edges (branch lengths). The location of the root on the species tree is not identifiable in this situation. However, for 5 or more species with one gene sampled per species, we show that the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the rooted species tree topology and all its internal branch lengths. The length of any pendant branch leading to a leaf of the species tree is also identifiable for any species from which more than one gene is sampled.

Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gregory K. Silber

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Climate-related shifts in marine mammal range and distribution have been observed in some populations; however, the nature and magnitude of future responses are uncertain in novel environments projected under climate change. This poses a challenge for agencies charged with management and conservation of these species. Specialized diets, restricted ranges, or reliance on specific substrates or sites (e.g., for pupping make many marine mammal populations particularly vulnerable to climate change. High-latitude, predominantly ice-obligate, species have experienced some of the largest changes in habitat and distribution and these are expected to continue. Efforts to predict and project marine mammal distributions to date have emphasized data-driven statistical habitat models. These have proven successful for short time-scale (e.g., seasonal management activities, but confidence that such relationships will hold for multi-decade projections and novel environments is limited. Recent advances in mechanistic modeling of marine mammals (i.e., models that rely on robust physiological and ecological principles expected to hold under climate change may address this limitation. The success of such approaches rests on continued advances in marine mammal ecology, behavior, and physiology together with improved regional climate projections. The broad scope of this challenge suggests initial priorities be placed on vulnerable species or populations (those already experiencing declines or projected to undergo ecological shifts resulting from climate changes that are consistent across climate projections and species or populations for which ample data already exist (with the hope that these may inform climate change sensitivities in less well observed species or populations elsewhere. The sustained monitoring networks, novel observations, and modeling advances required to more confidently project marine mammal distributions in a changing climate will ultimately

[Species composition and geographical distribution of threatened fishes in Yunnan Province of Southwest China].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qian; Zhong, Jin-Xin

2013-05-01

Based on the related published papers, and by using Geographic Information System (ArcGIS 9.3), this paper analyzed the species composition and geographical distribution of threatened fishes in Yunnan Province of Southwest China. There were 83 threatened species living in the Province, belonging to 5 orders, 13 families, and 47 genera. Cypriniformes was absolutely dominant, with 64 species, followed by Siluriformes, with 16 species. Cyprinidae fishes had 51 species, accounting for 79.7% of Cypriniformes. The most species of Cyprinid fishes were of Barbinae (14 species), Cyprininae (10 species), and Cultrinae (10 species). The threatened fishes could be divided into two zoogeographical regions, i. e., Tibetan Plateau region and Oriental region, and their species composition and geographical distribution were resulted from the historical evolution adapted to the related environments. Whatever in rivers and in lakes, the Cyprinid fishes were both absolutely dominant, occupying 36.1% and 31.3% of the total, respectively. The Cyprinid fishes in rivers were mostly of endangered species, while those in lakes were mostly of vulnerable species. The factors affecting the threatened fishes in the Province were discussed from the two aspects of geodynamic evolution and present situation.

The interplay of various sources of noise on reliability of species distribution models hinges on ecological specialisation.

Science.gov (United States)

Soultan, Alaaeldin; Safi, Kamran

2017-01-01

Digitized species occurrence data provide an unprecedented source of information for ecologists and conservationists. Species distribution model (SDM) has become a popular method to utilise these data for understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of species, and for modelling biodiversity patterns. Our objective is to study the impact of noise in species occurrence data (namely sample size and positional accuracy) on the performance and reliability of SDM, considering the multiplicative impact of SDM algorithms, species specialisation, and grid resolution. We created a set of four 'virtual' species characterized by different specialisation levels. For each of these species, we built the suitable habitat models using five algorithms at two grid resolutions, with varying sample sizes and different levels of positional accuracy. We assessed the performance and reliability of the SDM according to classic model evaluation metrics (Area Under the Curve and True Skill Statistic) and model agreement metrics (Overall Concordance Correlation Coefficient and geographic niche overlap) respectively. Our study revealed that species specialisation had by far the most dominant impact on the SDM. In contrast to previous studies, we found that for widespread species, low sample size and low positional accuracy were acceptable, and useful distribution ranges could be predicted with as few as 10 species occurrences. Range predictions for narrow-ranged species, however, were sensitive to sample size and positional accuracy, such that useful distribution ranges required at least 20 species occurrences. Against expectations, the MAXENT algorithm poorly predicted the distribution of specialist species at low sample size.

Tracking the evolutionary history of Cortinarius species in section Calochroi, with transoceanic disjunct distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Garnica, Sigisfredo; Spahn, Philipp; Oertel, Bernhard; Ammirati, Joseph; Oberwinkler, Franz

2011-07-19

Cortinarius species in section Calochroi display local, clinal and circumboreal patterns of distribution across the Northern Hemisphere where these ectomycorrhizal fungi occur with host trees throughout their geographical range within a continent, or have disjunct intercontinental distributions, the origins of which are not understood. We inferred evolutionary histories of four species, 1) C. arcuatorum, 2) C. aureofulvus, 3) C. elegantior and 4) C. napus, from populations distributed throughout the Old World, and portions of the New World (Central- and North America) based on genetic variation of 154 haplotype internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences from 83 population samples. By describing the population structure of these species across their geographical distribution, we attempt to identify their historical migration and patterns of diversification. Models of population structure from nested clade, demographic and coalescent-based analyses revealed genetically differentiated and geographically structured haplotypes in C. arcuatorum and C. elegantior, while C. aureofulvus showed considerably less population structure and C. napus lacked sufficient genetic differentiation to resolve any population structure. Disjunct populations within C. arcuatorum, C. aureofulvus and C. elegantior show little or no morphological differentiation, whereas in C. napus there is a high level of homoplasy and phenotypic plasticity for veil and lamellae colour. The ITS sequences of the type specimens of C. albobrunnoides and C. albobrunnoides var. violaceovelatus were identical to one another and are treated as one species with a wider range of geographic distribution under C. napus. Our results indicate that each of the Calochroi species has undergone a relatively independent evolutionary history, hypothesised as follows: 1) a widely distributed ancestral population of C. arcuatorum diverged into distinctive sympatric populations in the New World; 2) two divergent lineages in C

Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

2014-01-01

Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies. PMID:25137138

Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

2014-01-01

Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Faurby, Søren; Araújo, Miguel B.

2018-03-01

Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges.

Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

Science.gov (United States)

Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C

2014-09-01

Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced

Thalassiosira spp. community composition shifts in response to chemical and physical forcing in the northeast Pacific Ocean.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Phoebe Dreux Chappell

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Diatoms are genetically diverse unicellular photosynthetic eukaryotes that are key primary producers in the ocean. Many of the over 100 extant diatom species in the cosmopolitan genus Thalassiosira are difficult to distinguish in mixed populations using light microscopy. Here we examine shifts in Thalassiosira spp. composition along a coastal to open ocean transect that encountered a three-month-old Haida eddy in the northeast Pacific Ocean. To quantify shifts in Thalassiosira species composition, we developed a targeted automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis (ARISA method to identify Thalassiosira spp. in environmental samples. As many specific fragment lengths are indicative of individual Thalassiosira spp., the ARISA method is a useful screening tool to identify changes in the relative abundance and distribution of specific species. The method also enabled us to assess changes in Thalassiosira community composition in response to chemical and physical forcing. Thalassiosira spp. community composition in the core of a three-month-old Haida eddy remained largely (>80% similar over a two-week period, despite moving 24 km southwestward. Shifts in Thalassiosira species correlated with changes in dissolved iron (Fe and temperature throughout the sampling period. Simultaneously tracking community composition and relative abundance of Thalassiosira species within the physical and chemical context they occurred allowed us to identify quantitative linkages between environmental conditions and community response.

Counterintuitive angular shifts in the photoelectron momentum distribution for atoms in strong few-cycle circularly polarized laser pulses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martiny, Christian; Abu-Samha, Mahmoud; Madsen, Lars Bojer

2009-01-01

We solve the three-dimensional time-dependent Schrödinger equation for a three-cycle circularly polarized laser pulse interacting with an atom. The photoelectron momentum distributions show counterintuitive shifts, similar to those observed in a recent experiment (Eckle et al 2008 Science 322 1525...

Distribution of Plasmids in Distinct Leptospira Pathogenic Species.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yanzhuo; Zhuang, Xuran; Zhong, Yi; Zhang, Cuicai; Zhang, Yan; Zeng, Lingbing; Zhu, Yongzhang; He, Ping; Dong, Ke; Pal, Utpal; Guo, Xiaokui; Qin, Jinhong

2015-11-01

Leptospirosis, caused by pathogenic Leptospira, is a worldwide zoonotic infection. The genus Leptospira includes at least 21 species clustered into three groups--pathogens, non-pathogens, and intermediates--based on 16S rRNA phylogeny. Research on Leptospira is difficult due to slow growth and poor transformability of the pathogens. Recent identification of extrachromosomal elements besides the two chromosomes in L. interrogans has provided new insight into genome complexity of the genus Leptospira. The large size, low copy number, and high similarity of the sequence of these extrachromosomal elements with the chromosomes present challenges in isolating and detecting them without careful genome assembly. In this study, two extrachromosomal elements were identified in L. borgpetersenii serovar Ballum strain 56604 through whole genome assembly combined with S1 nuclease digestion following pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (S1-PFGE) analysis. Further, extrachromosomal elements in additional 15 Chinese epidemic strains of Leptospira, comprising L. borgpetersenii, L. weilii, and L. interrogans, were successfully separated and identified, independent of genome sequence data. Southern blot hybridization with extrachromosomal element-specific probes, designated as lcp1, lcp2 and lcp3-rep, further confirmed their occurrences as extrachromosomal elements. In total, 24 plasmids were detected in 13 out of 15 tested strains, among which 11 can hybridize with the lcp1-rep probe and 11 with the lcp2-rep probe, whereas two can hybridize with the lcp3-rep probe. None of them are likely to be species-specific. Blastp search of the lcp1, lcp2, and lcp3-rep genes with a nonredundant protein database of Leptospira species genomes showed that their homologous sequences are widely distributed among clades of pathogens but not non-pathogens or intermediates. These results suggest that the plasmids are widely distributed in Leptospira species, and further elucidation of their biological

The geography of demography: long-term demographic studies and species distribution models reveal a species border limited by adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Eckhart, V M; Geber, M A; Morris, W F; Fabio, E S; Tiffin, P; Moeller, D A

2011-10-01

Potential causes of species' geographic distribution limits fall into two broad classes: (1) limited adaptation across spatially variable environments and (2) limited opportunities to colonize unoccupied areas. Combining demographic studies, analyses of demographic responses to environmental variation, and species distribution models, we investigated the causes of range limits in a model system, the eastern border of the California annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana. Vital rates of 20 populations varied with growing season temperature and precipitation: fruit number and overwinter survival of 1-year-old seeds declined steeply, while current-year seed germination increased modestly along west-to-east gradients in decreasing temperature, decreasing mean precipitation, and increasing variation in precipitation. Long-term stochastic finite rate of increase, λ(s), exhibited a fourfold range and varied among geologic surface materials as well as with temperature and precipitation. Growth rate declined significantly toward the eastern border, falling below 1 in three of the five easternmost populations. Distribution models employing demographically important environmental variables predicted low habitat favorability beyond the eastern border. Models that filtered or weighted population presences by λ(s) predicted steeper eastward declines in favorability and assigned greater roles in setting the distribution to among-year variation in precipitation and to geologic surface material. These analyses reveal a species border likely set by limited adaptation to declining environmental quality.

A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalmaris, Eleftheria; Ramalho, Cristina E; Poot, Pieter; Veneklaas, Erik J; Byrne, Margaret

2015-11-01

A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia. Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM). A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction. Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had

The definition of species richness used by species sensitivity distributions approximates observed effects of salinity on stream macroinvertebrates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kefford, Ben J., E-mail: ben.kefford@uts.edu.a [School of Applied Sciences, RMIT University, Victoria (Australia); Centre for Environmental Sustainability, Department of Environmental Science, University of Technology Sydney, New South Wales (Australia); Marchant, Richard [Department of Entomology, Museum of Victoria, Victoria (Australia); Schaefer, Ralf B. [School of Applied Sciences, RMIT University, Victoria (Australia); Metzeling, Leon [EPA Victoria, Macleod, Victoria (Australia); Dunlop, Jason E. [Department of Environment and Resource Management, Indooroopilly, Queensland (Australia); National Research Centre for Environmental Toxicology, University of Queensland, Coopers Plains, Queensland (Australia); Choy, Satish C. [Department of Environment and Resource Management, Indooroopilly, Queensland (Australia); Goonan, Peter [South Australia Environment Protection Authority, Adelaide, South Australia (Australia)

2011-01-15

The risk of chemicals for ecological communities is often forecast with species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) which are used to predict the concentration which will protect p% of species (PC{sub p} value). However, at the PC{sub p} value, species richness in nature would not necessary be p% less than at uncontaminated sites. The definition of species richness inherent to SSDs (contaminant category richness) contrasts with species richness typically measured in most field studies (point richness). We determine, for salinity in eastern Australia, whether these definitions of stream macroinvertebrate species richness are commensurable. There were strong relationships (r{sup 2} {>=} 0.87) between mean point species, family and Ephemeroptera, Trichoptera and Plecoptera species richness and their respective contamination category richness. Despite differences in the definition of richness used by SSDs and field biomonitoring, their results in terms of relative species loss from salinity in south-east Australia are similar. We conclude that in our system both definitions are commensurable. - Definitions of species richness inherit in SSDs and biomonitoring are for salinity in south-east Australia commensurable.

The definition of species richness used by species sensitivity distributions approximates observed effects of salinity on stream macroinvertebrates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kefford, Ben J.; Marchant, Richard; Schaefer, Ralf B.; Metzeling, Leon; Dunlop, Jason E.; Choy, Satish C.; Goonan, Peter

2011-01-01

The risk of chemicals for ecological communities is often forecast with species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) which are used to predict the concentration which will protect p% of species (PC p value). However, at the PC p value, species richness in nature would not necessary be p% less than at uncontaminated sites. The definition of species richness inherent to SSDs (contaminant category richness) contrasts with species richness typically measured in most field studies (point richness). We determine, for salinity in eastern Australia, whether these definitions of stream macroinvertebrate species richness are commensurable. There were strong relationships (r 2 ≥ 0.87) between mean point species, family and Ephemeroptera, Trichoptera and Plecoptera species richness and their respective contamination category richness. Despite differences in the definition of richness used by SSDs and field biomonitoring, their results in terms of relative species loss from salinity in south-east Australia are similar. We conclude that in our system both definitions are commensurable. - Definitions of species richness inherit in SSDs and biomonitoring are for salinity in south-east Australia commensurable.

Comparison of a species distribution model and a process model from a hierarchical perspective to quantify effects of projected climate change on tree species

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Jacob S. Fraser

2015-01-01

Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating across a hierarchy of ecological scales. Process and species distribution models have been developed emphasizing forces at different scales. Understanding model agreement across hierarchical scales provides perspective on prediction uncertainty and ultimately enables policy makers and managers to...

A Time Difference Method for Measurement of Phase Shift between Distributed Feedback Laser Diode (DFB-LD Output Wavelength and Intensity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongning Liu

2015-07-01

Full Text Available A time difference method to conveniently measure the phase shift between output wavelength and intensity of distributed feedback laser diodes (DFB-LDs was proposed. This approach takes advantage of asymmetric absorption positions at the same wavelength during wavelength increase and decrease tuning processes in the intensity-time curve by current modulation. For its practical implementation, a measurement example of phase shift was demonstrated by measuring a time difference between the first time and the second time attendances of the same gas absorption line in the intensity-time curve during one sine or triangle modulation circle. The phase shifts at modulation frequencies ranging from 50 Hz to 50 kHz were measured with a resolution of 0.001π. As the modulation frequency increased the shift value increased with a slowed growth rate.

Body size, growth and life span: implications for the polewards range shift of Octopus tetricus in south-eastern Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Jorge E; Pecl, Gretta T; Moltschaniwskyj, Natalie A; Strugnell, Jan M; León, Rafael I; Semmens, Jayson M

2014-01-01

Understanding the response of any species to climate change can be challenging. However, in short-lived species the faster turnover of generations may facilitate the examination of responses associated with longer-term environmental change. Octopus tetricus, a commercially important species, has undergone a recent polewards range shift in the coastal waters of south-eastern Australia, thought to be associated with the southerly extension of the warm East Australian Current. At the cooler temperatures of a polewards distribution limit, growth of a species could be slower, potentially leading to a bigger body size and resulting in a slower population turnover, affecting population viability at the extreme of the distribution. Growth rates, body size, and life span of O. tetricus were examined at the leading edge of a polewards range shift in Tasmanian waters (40°S and 147°E) throughout 2011. Octopus tetricus had a relatively small body size and short lifespan of approximately 11 months that, despite cooler temperatures, would allow a high rate of population turnover and may facilitate the population increase necessary for successful establishment in the new extended area of the range. Temperature, food availability and gender appear to influence growth rate. Individuals that hatched during cooler and more productive conditions, but grew during warming conditions, exhibited faster growth rates and reached smaller body sizes than individuals that hatched into warmer waters but grew during cooling conditions. This study suggests that fast growth, small body size and associated rapid population turnover may facilitate the range shift of O. tetricus into Tasmanian waters.

Spatial distribution, Leishmania species and clinical traits of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis cases in the Colombian army.

Science.gov (United States)

Patino, Luz H; Mendez, Claudia; Rodriguez, Omaira; Romero, Yanira; Velandia, Daniel; Alvarado, Maria; Pérez, Julie; Duque, Maria Clara; Ramírez, Juan David

2017-08-01

In Colombia, the cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is the most common manifestation across the army personnel. Hence, it is mandatory to determine the species associated with the disease as well as the association with the clinical traits. A total of 273 samples of male patients with CL were included in the study and clinical data of the patients was studied. PCR and sequencing analyses (Cytb and HSP70 genes) were performed to identify the species and the intra-specific genetic variability. A georeferenced database was constructed to identify the spatial distribution of Leishmania species isolated. The identification of five species of Leishmania that circulate in the areas where army personnel are deployed is described. Predominant infecting Leishmania species corresponds to L. braziliensis (61.1%), followed by Leishmania panamensis (33.5%), with a high distribution of both species at geographical and municipal level. The species L. guyanensis, L. mexicana and L. lainsoni were also detected at lower frequency. We also showed the identification of different genotypes within L. braziliensis and L. panamensis. In conclusion, we identified the Leishmania species circulating in the areas where Colombian army personnel are deployed, as well as the high intra-specific genetic variability of L. braziliensis and L. panamensis and how these genotypes are distributed at the geographic level.

Species abundance distributions : moving beyond single prediction theories to integration within an ecological framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

McGill, Brian J.; Etienne, Rampal S.; Gray, John S.; Alonso, David; Anderson, Marti J.; Benecha, Habtamu Kassa; Dornelas, Maria; Enquist, Brian J.; Green, Jessica L.; He, Fangliang; Hurlbert, Allen H.; Magurran, Anne E.; Marquet, Pablo A.; Maurer, Brian A.; Ostling, Annette; Soykan, Candan U.; Ugland, Karl I.; White, Ethan P.

2007-01-01

Species abundance distributions (SADs) follow one of ecology's oldest and most universal laws - every community shows a hollow curve or hyperbolic shape on a histogram with many rare species and just a few common species. Here, we review theoretical, empirical and statistical developments in the

Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongxiang Zhang

Full Text Available Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night, simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature, maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

Tracking the evolutionary history of Cortinarius species in section Calochroi, with transoceanic disjunct distributions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ammirati Joseph

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cortinarius species in section Calochroi display local, clinal and circumboreal patterns of distribution across the Northern Hemisphere where these ectomycorrhizal fungi occur with host trees throughout their geographical range within a continent, or have disjunct intercontinental distributions, the origins of which are not understood. We inferred evolutionary histories of four species, 1 C. arcuatorum, 2 C. aureofulvus, 3 C. elegantior and 4 C. napus, from populations distributed throughout the Old World, and portions of the New World (Central- and North America based on genetic variation of 154 haplotype internal transcribed spacer (ITS sequences from 83 population samples. By describing the population structure of these species across their geographical distribution, we attempt to identify their historical migration and patterns of diversification. Results Models of population structure from nested clade, demographic and coalescent-based analyses revealed genetically differentiated and geographically structured haplotypes in C. arcuatorum and C. elegantior, while C. aureofulvus showed considerably less population structure and C. napus lacked sufficient genetic differentiation to resolve any population structure. Disjunct populations within C. arcuatorum, C. aureofulvus and C. elegantior show little or no morphological differentiation, whereas in C. napus there is a high level of homoplasy and phenotypic plasticity for veil and lamellae colour. The ITS sequences of the type specimens of C. albobrunnoides and C. albobrunnoides var. violaceovelatus were identical to one another and are treated as one species with a wider range of geographic distribution under C. napus. Conclusions Our results indicate that each of the Calochroi species has undergone a relatively independent evolutionary history, hypothesised as follows: 1 a widely distributed ancestral population of C. arcuatorum diverged into distinctive sympatric

Do abundance distributions and species aggregation correctly predict macroecological biodiversity patterns in tropical forests?

Science.gov (United States)

Wiegand, Thorsten; Lehmann, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas; Fortin, Marie‐Josée

2016-01-01

Abstract Aim It has been recently suggested that different ‘unified theories of biodiversity and biogeography’ can be characterized by three common ‘minimal sufficient rules’: (1) species abundance distributions follow a hollow curve, (2) species show intraspecific aggregation, and (3) species are independently placed with respect to other species. Here, we translate these qualitative rules into a quantitative framework and assess if these minimal rules are indeed sufficient to predict multiple macroecological biodiversity patterns simultaneously. Location Tropical forest plots in Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and in Sinharaja, Sri Lanka. Methods We assess the predictive power of the three rules using dynamic and spatial simulation models in combination with census data from the two forest plots. We use two different versions of the model: (1) a neutral model and (2) an extended model that allowed for species differences in dispersal distances. In a first step we derive model parameterizations that correctly represent the three minimal rules (i.e. the model quantitatively matches the observed species abundance distribution and the distribution of intraspecific aggregation). In a second step we applied the parameterized models to predict four additional spatial biodiversity patterns. Results Species‐specific dispersal was needed to quantitatively fulfil the three minimal rules. The model with species‐specific dispersal correctly predicted the species–area relationship, but failed to predict the distance decay, the relationship between species abundances and aggregations, and the distribution of a spatial co‐occurrence index of all abundant species pairs. These results were consistent over the two forest plots. Main conclusions The three ‘minimal sufficient’ rules only provide an incomplete approximation of the stochastic spatial geometry of biodiversity in tropical forests. The assumption of independent interspecific placements is most

Practical round-robin differential-phase-shift quantum key distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Zhen; Yuan, Xiao; Cao, Zhu; Ma, Xiongfeng

2017-01-01

The security of quantum key distribution (QKD) relies on the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, with which legitimate users are able to estimate information leakage by monitoring the disturbance of the transmitted quantum signals. Normally, the disturbance is reflected as bit flip errors in the sifted key; thus, privacy amplification, which removes any leaked information from the key, generally depends on the bit error rate. Recently, a round-robin differential-phase-shift QKD protocol for which privacy amplification does not rely on the bit error rate (Sasaki et al 2014 Nature 509 475) was proposed. The amount of leaked information can be bounded by the sender during the state-preparation stage and hence, is independent of the behavior of the unreliable quantum channel. In our work, we apply the tagging technique to the protocol and present a tight bound on the key rate and employ a decoy-state method. The effects of background noise and misalignment are taken into account under practical conditions. Our simulation results show that the protocol can tolerate channel error rates close to 50% within a typical experiment setting. That is, there is a negligible restriction on the error rate in practice. (paper)

Geographic variability in elevation and topographic constraints on the distribution of native and nonnative trout in the Great Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, Dana R.; Dunham, Jason B.; Hockman-Wert, David

2014-01-01

Understanding local and geographic factors influencing species distributions is a prerequisite for conservation planning. Our objective in this study was to model local and geographic variability in elevations occupied by native and nonnative trout in the northwestern Great Basin, USA. To this end, we analyzed a large existing data set of trout presence (5,156 observations) to evaluate two fundamental factors influencing occupied elevations: climate-related gradients in geography and local constraints imposed by topography. We applied quantile regression to model upstream and downstream distribution elevation limits for each trout species commonly found in the region (two native and two nonnative species). With these models in hand, we simulated an upstream shift in elevation limits of trout distributions to evaluate potential consequences of habitat loss. Downstream elevation limits were inversely associated with latitude, reflecting regional gradients in temperature. Upstream limits were positively related to maximum stream elevation as expected. Downstream elevation limits were constrained topographically by valley bottom elevations in northern streams but not in southern streams, where limits began well above valley bottoms. Elevation limits were similar among species. Upstream shifts in elevation limits for trout would lead to more habitat loss in the north than in the south, a result attributable to differences in topography. Because downstream distributions of trout in the north extend into valley bottoms with reduced topographic relief, trout in more northerly latitudes are more likely to experience habitat loss associated with an upstream shift in lower elevation limits. By applying quantile regression to relatively simple information (species presence, elevation, geography, topography), we were able to identify elevation limits for trout in the Great Basin and explore the effects of potential shifts in these limits that could occur in response to changing

Spatial distribution of the species of the genus Buenoa (Hemiptera: Notonectidae) in Tumaco (Narino, Colombia)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Padilla Gil, Dora Nancy

2014-01-01

The work was carried in the marine agricola farm of the Municipality Tumaco, with the objective of studying the distribution of the species of the genus Buenoa in homogeneous environmental conditions regarding temperature, humidity, altitude and aquatic habitats of the freshwater and the others with different grade of conductivity and dedicated to the marine shrimp farming Litopenaeus vannamei (Boone, 1931). The studied lakes were four of freshwater and four with different conductivity, in the months of June to November 2010. The results showed heterogeneous distribution of the species of the genus Buenoa with major diversity in freshwater (5 species) and lower abundance; while in saltwater had lower diversity (4 species) and major abundance. Only Buenoa dactylis Padilla-Gil 2010 was found in both aquatic environments. It is discussed possible ecological implications than can influence this distribution pattern are discussed.

Two new species of Ateuchus with remarks on ecology, distributions, and evolutionary relationships (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae, Scarabaeinae).

Science.gov (United States)

Moctezuma, Victor; Sánchez-Huerta, José Luis; Halffter, Gonzalo

2018-01-01

Two new species of the genus Ateuchus Weber are described from the region of Los Chimalapas, Oaxaca, Mexico: A. benitojuarezi sp. n. and A. colossus sp. n. A diagnosis for distinguishing these new species from the other species of this genus in North America is included. This paper is illustrated with pictures of the dorsal habitus and the male genitalia of the new species. The evolutionary relationships of the species are discussed, as well as their distribution and ecology. It is considered that the species of the genus Ateuchus present in North and Central America correspond to the Typical Neotropical and Mountain Mesoamerican distribution patterns.

Distribution and diversity of Arctic-Alpine species in the Balkans

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stevanovic, Vladimir; Vukojicic, Snezana; Sinzar-Sekulic, Jasmina

2009-01-01

The distributions of 77 Arctic-Alpine species in the Balkans are mapped and the centers of their richness and diversity presented. Within the Dinaric Alps these are Mts Vranica, Durmitor, and Prokletije; in the Scardo-Pindhic mountains, Šarplanina-Rudoka-Korab form a continuous chain...

Species abundance distributions: moving beyond single prediction theories to integration within an ecological framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

McGill, B.J.; Etienne, R.S.; Gray, J.S.; Alonso, D.; Anderson, M.J.; Benecha, H.K.

2007-01-01

Species abundance distributions (SADs) follow one of ecology's oldest and most universal laws ¿ every community shows a hollow curve or hyperbolic shape on a histogram with many rare species and just a few common species. Here, we review theoretical, empirical and statistical developments in the

Species distributions models in wildlife planning: agricultural policy and wildlife management in the great plains

Science.gov (United States)

Fontaine, Joseph J.; Jorgensen, Christopher; Stuber, Erica F.; Gruber, Lutz F.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Lusk, Jeffrey J.; Zach, Eric S.; Decker, Karie L.

2017-01-01

We know economic and social policy has implications for ecosystems at large, but the consequences for a given geographic area or specific wildlife population are more difficult to conceptualize and communicate. Species distribution models, which extrapolate species-habitat relationships across ecological scales, are capable of predicting population changes in distribution and abundance in response to management and policy, and thus, are an ideal means for facilitating proactive management within a larger policy framework. To illustrate the capabilities of species distribution modeling in scenario planning for wildlife populations, we projected an existing distribution model for ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) onto a series of alternative future landscape scenarios for Nebraska, USA. Based on our scenarios, we qualitatively and quantitatively estimated the effects of agricultural policy decisions on pheasant populations across Nebraska, in specific management regions, and at wildlife management areas. 

Doppler interpretation of quasar red shifts.

Science.gov (United States)

Zapolsky, H S

1966-08-05

The hypothesis that the quasistellar sources (quasars) are local objects moving with velocities close to the speed of light is examined. Provided there is no observational cutoff on apparent bolometric magnitude for the quasars, the transverse Doppler effect leads to the expectation of fewer blue shifts than red shifts for an isotropic distribution of velocities. Such a distribution also yields a function N(z), the number of objects with red shift less than z which is not inconsistent with the present data. On the basis of two extreme assumptions concerning the origin of such rapidly moving sources, we computed curves of red shift plotted against magnitude. In particular, the curve obtained on the assumption that the quasars originated from an explosion in or nearby our own galaxy is in as good agreement with the observations as the curve of cosmological red shift plotted against magnitude.

Species sensitivity distributions in a context of practical applications for risk-based decisions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Posthuma, L.; Traas, T.P.; Roelofs, W.; Winterse, A.; Zwart, D. de; Meent, D. van de [RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

2003-07-01

Different biological species clearly show different sensitivities to toxic compounds present in their habitat. The absence of differences in sensitivity would entail an 'all nothing' response, with all species responding similarly to pollution. Given the sensitivity variation, however, some species show adverse effects, and others flourish. In this sense, variation is 'music for ecotoxicologists'. But it also is a nuisance: ecotoxicologists need to handle the vast diversity of sensitivities in Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). This contribution addresses a pragmatic, versatile, statistics-based concept to address species sensitivity differences, and shows options for application. In the 1980s, ecotoxicologists have coined the term 'Species Sensitivity Distributions' (SSDs) for the statistical descriptions that can be applied to address sensitivity variation. An SSD is a Probability Density Function (usually bell-shaped) or Cumulative Distribution Function (sigmoid), that relates the environmental concentration (x) to 'risk' (y). Since their original description and use, the concept was further developed, criticised, and tailored to various policy or assessment problems. (orig.)

Predictive models of threatened plant species distribution in the Iberian arid south-east

OpenAIRE

Benito, Blas M.

2013-01-01

Poster on the distribution of three rare, endemic and endangered annual plants of arid zones in the south-eastern Iberian peninsula. Presented in the workshop "Predictive Modelling of Species Distribution: New Tools for the XXI Century (Baeza, Spain, november 2005).

The effects of model and data complexity on predictions from species distributions models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

García-Callejas, David; Bastos, Miguel

2016-01-01

How complex does a model need to be to provide useful predictions is a matter of continuous debate across environmental sciences. In the species distributions modelling literature, studies have demonstrated that more complex models tend to provide better fits. However, studies have also shown...... that predictive performance does not always increase with complexity. Testing of species distributions models is challenging because independent data for testing are often lacking, but a more general problem is that model complexity has never been formally described in such studies. Here, we systematically...

Species composition, abundance and distribution of hydromedusae from Dharamtar estuarine system, adjoining Bombay Harbour

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Santhakumari, V.; Tiwari, L.R.; Nair, V.R.

Species composition, abundance and distribution of hydromedusae from Dharamtar estuarine system, adjoining Bombay Harbour, Maharashtra, India were investigated during 1984-1985. Twenty six species belonging to 19 genera were obtained from this area...

A global phylogeny of leafmining Ectoedemia moths (Lepidoptera: Nepticulidae): exploring host plant family shifts and allopatry as drivers of speciation.

Science.gov (United States)

Doorenweerd, Camiel; van Nieukerken, Erik J; Menken, Steph B J

2015-01-01

Host association patterns in Ectoedemia (Lepidoptera: Nepticulidae) are also encountered in other insect groups with intimate plant relationships, including a high degree of monophagy, a preference for ecologically dominant plant families (e.g. Fagaceae, Rosaceae, Salicaceae, and Betulaceae) and a tendency for related insect species to feed on related host plant species. The evolutionary processes underlying these patterns are only partly understood, we therefore assessed the role of allopatry and host plant family shifts in speciation within Ectoedemia. Six nuclear and mitochondrial DNA markers with a total aligned length of 3692 base pairs were used to infer phylogenetic relationships among 92 species belonging to the subgenus Ectoedemia of the genus Ectoedemia, representing a thorough taxon sampling with a global coverage. The results support monophyletic species groups that are congruent with published findings based on morphology. We used the obtained phylogeny to explore host plant family association and geographical distribution to investigate if host shifts and allopatry have been instrumental in the speciation of these leafmining insects. We found that, even though most species within species groups commonly feed on plants from one family, shifts to a distantly related host family have occasionally occurred throughout the phylogeny and such shifts are most commonly observed towards Betulaceae. The largest radiations have occurred within species groups that feed on Fagaceae, Rosaceae, and Salicaceae. Most species are restricted to one of the seven global biogeographic regions, but within species groups representatives are commonly found in different biogeographic regions. Although we find general patterns with regard to host use and biogeography, there are differences between clades that suggest that different drivers of speciation, and perhaps drivers that we did not examine, have shaped diversity patterns in different clades.

Inferential monitoring of global change impact on biodiversity through remote sensing and species distribution modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sangermano, Florencia

2009-12-01

The world is suffering from rapid changes in both climate and land cover which are the main factors affecting global biodiversity. These changes may affect ecosystems by altering species distributions, population sizes, and community compositions, which emphasizes the need for a rapid assessment of biodiversity status for conservation and management purposes. Current approaches on monitoring biodiversity rely mainly on long term observations of predetermined sites, which require large amounts of time, money and personnel to be executed. In order to overcome problems associated with current field monitoring methods, the main objective of this dissertation is the development of framework for inferential monitoring of the impact of global change on biodiversity based on remotely sensed data coupled with species distribution modeling techniques. Several research pieces were performed independently in order to fulfill this goal. First, species distribution modeling was used to identify the ranges of 6362 birds, mammals and amphibians in South America. Chapter 1 compares the power of different presence-only species distribution methods for modeling distributions of species with different response curves to environmental gradients and sample sizes. It was found that there is large variability in the power of the methods for modeling habitat suitability and species ranges, showing the importance of performing, when possible, a preliminary gradient analysis of the species distribution before selecting the method to be used. Chapter 2 presents a new methodology for the redefinition of species range polygons. Using a method capable of establishing the uncertainty in the definition of existing range polygons, the automated procedure identifies the relative importance of bioclimatic variables for the species, predicts their ranges and generates a quality assessment report to explore prediction errors. Analysis using independent validation data shows the power of this

Limitations to the Use of Species-Distribution Models for Environmental-Impact Assessments in the Amazon.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorena Ribeiro de A Carneiro

Full Text Available Species-distribution models (SDM are tools with potential to inform environmental-impact studies (EIA. However, they are not always appropriate and may result in improper and expensive mitigation and compensation if their limitations are not understood by decision makers. Here, we examine the use of SDM for frogs that were used in impact assessment using data obtained from the EIA of a hydroelectric project located in the Amazon Basin in Brazil. The results show that lack of knowledge of species distributions limits the appropriate use of SDM in the Amazon region for most target species. Because most of these targets are newly described and their distributions poorly known, data about their distributions are insufficient to be effectively used in SDM. Surveys that are mandatory for the EIA are often conducted only near the area under assessment, and so models must extrapolate well beyond the sampled area to inform decisions made at much larger spatial scales, such as defining areas to be used to offset the negative effects of the projects. Using distributions of better-known species in simulations, we show that geographical-extrapolations based on limited information of species ranges often lead to spurious results. We conclude that the use of SDM as evidence to support project-licensing decisions in the Amazon requires much greater area sampling for impact studies, or, alternatively, integrated and comparative survey strategies, to improve biodiversity sampling. When more detailed distribution information is unavailable, SDM will produce results that generate uncertain and untestable decisions regarding impact assessment. In many cases, SDM is unlikely to be better than the use of expert opinion.

Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Boivin, Nicole L; Zeder, Melinda A; Fuller, Dorian Q; Crowther, Alison; Larson, Greger; Erlandson, Jon M; Denham, Tim; Petraglia, Michael D

2016-06-07

The exhibition of increasingly intensive and complex niche construction behaviors through time is a key feature of human evolution, culminating in the advanced capacity for ecosystem engineering exhibited by Homo sapiens A crucial outcome of such behaviors has been the dramatic reshaping of the global biosphere, a transformation whose early origins are increasingly apparent from cumulative archaeological and paleoecological datasets. Such data suggest that, by the Late Pleistocene, humans had begun to engage in activities that have led to alterations in the distributions of a vast array of species across most, if not all, taxonomic groups. Changes to biodiversity have included extinctions, extirpations, and shifts in species composition, diversity, and community structure. We outline key examples of these changes, highlighting findings from the study of new datasets, like ancient DNA (aDNA), stable isotopes, and microfossils, as well as the application of new statistical and computational methods to datasets that have accumulated significantly in recent decades. We focus on four major phases that witnessed broad anthropogenic alterations to biodiversity-the Late Pleistocene global human expansion, the Neolithic spread of agriculture, the era of island colonization, and the emergence of early urbanized societies and commercial networks. Archaeological evidence documents millennia of anthropogenic transformations that have created novel ecosystems around the world. This record has implications for ecological and evolutionary research, conservation strategies, and the maintenance of ecosystem services, pointing to a significant need for broader cross-disciplinary engagement between archaeology and the biological and environmental sciences.

Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miranda C Jones

Full Text Available Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis and angelshark (Squatina squatina.

Modeling of the spatial distribution of ten endangered bird species in jurisdiction of Corantioquia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomez M, Ana Maria; Alvarez, Esteban

2006-01-01

Recently, thanks to advances made in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), techniques have been developed for the construction of models that predict the spatial distribution of species and other attributes of biodiversity. These methods have allowed for the development of objective criteria that are fundamental for making decisions regarding the creation of protected areas systems throughout the world. In this research, the spatial distribution of ten endangered species of birds found within the jurisdiction of CORANTIOQUIA (JDC from here on) was modelled, using GIS techniques. The JDC was divided into 177 squares of 15 x 10 Km and the following variables were quantified within each one: presence or absence of endangered species of birds, rainfall, temperature, sun brightness, relative humidity, day duration, altitude, vegetal cover, slope and primary net productivity. With the help of logistic regression were made predictive models. Based on logistic regressions techniques predictive models were made. These models allow to explain a percentage between 24% and 80% of spatial distribution variability of these species. Those results can help in the identification of valuable zones for the biodiversity conservation. In places where there are neither the time or the economic resources to carry out exhaustive analyses of biodiversity, the models can predict the probable presence of this endangered species

New distribution records for four mammal species, with notes on their taxonomy and ecology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G.N. Bronner

1990-09-01

Full Text Available New distribution records for four small mammal species (Georychus capensis, Galerella pulverulenta, Rhinolophus swinnyi and Amblysomus julianae are presented, along with relevant notes on the taxonomy, karyology and ecology of these species.

Long-Term Changes in the Distributions of Larval and Adult Fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harvey J Walsh

Full Text Available Many studies have documented long-term changes in adult marine fish distributions and linked these changes to climate change and multi-decadal climate variability. Most marine fish, however, have complex life histories with morphologically distinct stages, which use different habitats. Shifts in distribution of one stage may affect the connectivity between life stages and thereby impact population processes including spawning and recruitment. Specifically, many marine fish species have a planktonic larval stage, which lasts from weeks to months. We compared the spatial distribution and seasonal occurrence of larval fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem to test whether spatial and temporal distributions changed between two decades. Two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs sampled using similar methods and spatial domain each decade. Adult distributions from a long-term bottom trawl survey over the same time period and spatial area were also analyzed using the same analytical framework to compare changes in larval and adult distributions between the two decades. Changes in spatial distribution of larvae occurred for 43% of taxa, with shifts predominately northward (i.e., along-shelf. Timing of larval occurrence shifted for 49% of the larval taxa, with shifts evenly split between occurring earlier and later in the season. Where both larvae and adults of the same species were analyzed, 48% exhibited different shifts between larval and adult stages. Overall, these results demonstrate that larval fish distributions are changing in the ecosystem. The spatial changes are largely consistent with expectations from a changing climate. The temporal changes are more complex, indicating we need a better understanding of reproductive timing of fishes in the ecosystem. These changes may impact population productivity through changes in life history connectivity and recruitment, and add to the accumulating evidence for changes in the Northeast U.S. Shelf

Vertical distribution and migration of euphausiid species in the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Wiebe, Peter H.; Bucklin, Ann; Kaartvedt, Stein; Rø stad, Anders; Blanco-Bercial, Leocadio

2016-01-01

We addressed how the extreme environmental conditions of the Red Sea impact or alter patterns of vertical distribution and vertical migration of five euphausiid species that are known from other oceans. Euphausia diomedeae was abundant and performed

Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brady J Mattsson

Full Text Available Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition.

Diameter distribution in a Brazilian tropical dry forest domain: predictions for the stand and species.

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Robson B DE; Bufalino, Lina; Alves, Francisco T; Silva, José A A DA; Ferreira, Rinaldo L C

2017-01-01

Currently, there is a lack of studies on the correct utilization of continuous distributions for dry tropical forests. Therefore, this work aims to investigate the diameter structure of a brazilian tropical dry forest and to select suitable continuous distributions by means of statistic tools for the stand and the main species. Two subsets were randomly selected from 40 plots. Diameter at base height was obtained. The following functions were tested: log-normal; gamma; Weibull 2P and Burr. The best fits were selected by Akaike's information validation criterion. Overall, the diameter distribution of the dry tropical forest was better described by negative exponential curves and positive skewness. The forest studied showed diameter distributions with decreasing probability for larger trees. This behavior was observed for both the main species and the stand. The generalization of the function fitted for the main species show that the development of individual models is needed. The Burr function showed good flexibility to describe the diameter structure of the stand and the behavior of Mimosa ophthalmocentra and Bauhinia cheilantha species. For Poincianella bracteosa, Aspidosperma pyrifolium and Myracrodum urundeuva better fitting was obtained with the log-normal function.

Coagulase-negative Staphylococci in Danish blood cultures: species distribution and antibiotic susceptibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Jarløv, J O; Højbjerg, T; Busch-Sørensen, C; Scheibel, J; Møller, J K; Kolmos, H J; Wandall, D A

1996-03-01

The distribution and antibiotic susceptibility of coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) isolated from blood cultures was examined in samples from hospitals covering most of Denmark. A total of 499 CoNS isolates were detected in 477 blood cultures from 340 patients and speciated as Staphylococcus epidermidis, 285; Staphylococcus hominis, 61; Staphylococcus haemolyticus, 43; Staphylococcus warneri, 12; Staphylococcus cohnii, 7; Staphylococcus saprophyticus, 4; Staphylococcus capitis, 2 and Staphylococcus lugdunensis, 1. Seventy-eight isolates could not be identified to species level and six were Micrococcus spp. In 108 (22.6%) blood culture sets, more than one CoNS strain were found, as detected by species identification, antibiogram and biotyping. Significantly more blood cultures from patients in university hospitals were drawn from central venous catheters. Comparing university and non-university hospitals, the overall antibiotic susceptibility among CoNS was only slightly different, except for methicillin and amikacin. The prevalence of methicillin-resistant strains was 35.1% in the university hospital strains vs. 25.3% in the non-university hospital strains. The overall prevalence of methicillin resistance was 32%. Great geographic variation in both species distribution and antibiotic resistance was observed. The high prevalence of S. epidermidis makes subtyping of this species important.

Species distribution models for a migratory bird based on citizen science and satellite tracking data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher L. Coxen

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Species distribution models can provide critical baseline distribution information for the conservation of poorly understood species. Here, we compared the performance of band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata species distribution models created using Maxent and derived from two separate presence-only occurrence data sources in New Mexico: 1 satellite tracked birds and 2 observations reported in eBird basic data set. Both models had good accuracy (test AUC > 0.8 and True Skill Statistic > 0.4, and high overlap between suitability scores (I statistic 0.786 and suitable habitat patches (relative rank 0.639. Our results suggest that, at the state-wide level, eBird occurrence data can effectively model similar species distributions as satellite tracking data. Climate change models for the band-tailed pigeon predict a 35% loss in area of suitable climate by 2070 if CO2 emissions drop to 1990 levels by 2100, and a 45% loss by 2070 if we continue current CO2 emission levels through the end of the century. These numbers may be conservative given the predicted increase in drought, wildfire, and forest pest impacts to the coniferous forests the species inhabits in New Mexico. The northern portion of the species’ range in New Mexico is predicted to be the most viable through time.

Species distribution models for a migratory bird based on citizen science and satellite tracking data

Science.gov (United States)

Coxen, Christopher L.; Frey, Jennifer K.; Carleton, Scott A.; Collins, Daniel P.

2017-01-01

Species distribution models can provide critical baseline distribution information for the conservation of poorly understood species. Here, we compared the performance of band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata) species distribution models created using Maxent and derived from two separate presence-only occurrence data sources in New Mexico: 1) satellite tracked birds and 2) observations reported in eBird basic data set. Both models had good accuracy (test AUC > 0.8 and True Skill Statistic > 0.4), and high overlap between suitability scores (I statistic 0.786) and suitable habitat patches (relative rank 0.639). Our results suggest that, at the state-wide level, eBird occurrence data can effectively model similar species distributions as satellite tracking data. Climate change models for the band-tailed pigeon predict a 35% loss in area of suitable climate by 2070 if CO2 emissions drop to 1990 levels by 2100, and a 45% loss by 2070 if we continue current CO2 emission levels through the end of the century. These numbers may be conservative given the predicted increase in drought, wildfire, and forest pest impacts to the coniferous forests the species inhabits in New Mexico. The northern portion of the species’ range in New Mexico is predicted to be the most viable through time.

Value Distribution and Uniqueness Results of Zero-Order Meromorphic Functions to Their q-Shift

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haiwa Guan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate value distribution and uniqueness problems of meromorphic functions with their q-shift. We obtain that if f is a transcendental meromorphic (or entire function of zero order, and Q(z is a polynomial, then afn(qz+f(z−Q(z has infinitely many zeros, where q∈ℂ∖{0}, a is nonzero constant, and n≥5 (or n≥3. We also obtain that zero-order meromorphic function share is three distinct values IM with its q-difference polynomial P(f, and if limsup r→∞(N(r,f/T(r,f<1, then f≡P(f.

Species Abundance in a Forest Community in South China: A Case of Poisson Lognormal Distribution

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zuo-Yun YIN; Hai REN; Qian-Mei ZHANG; Shao-Lin PENG; Qin-Feng GUO; Guo-Yi ZHOU

2005-01-01

Case studies on Poisson lognormal distribution of species abundance have been rare, especially in forest communities. We propose a numerical method to fit the Poisson lognormal to the species abundance data at an evergreen mixed forest in the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, South China. Plants in the tree, shrub and herb layers in 25 quadrats of 20 m×20 m, 5 m×5 m, and 1 m×1 m were surveyed. Results indicated that: (i) for each layer, the observed species abundance with a similarly small median, mode, and a variance larger than the mean was reverse J-shaped and followed well the zero-truncated Poisson lognormal;(ii) the coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis of abundance, and two Poisson lognormal parameters (σ andμ) for shrub layer were closer to those for the herb layer than those for the tree layer; and (iii) from the tree to the shrub to the herb layer, the σ and the coefficient of variation decreased, whereas diversity increased. We suggest that: (i) the species abundance distributions in the three layers reflects the overall community characteristics; (ii) the Poisson lognormal can describe the species abundance distribution in diverse communities with a few abundant species but many rare species; and (iii) 1/σ should be an alternative measure of diversity.

Implications of human induced changes on the distribution of important plant species in the northwestern coastal desert of Egypt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marwa Waseem Halmy

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The application of species distribution modeling in deserts is a useful tool for mapping species and assessing the impact of human induced changes on individual species. Such applications are still rare, and this may be attributed to the fact that much of the arid lands and deserts around the world are located in inaccessible areas. Few studies have conducted spatially explicit modeling of plant species distribution in Egypt. The random forest modeling approach was applied to climatic and land-surface parameters to predict the distribution of ten important plant species in an arid landscape in the northwestern coastal desert of Egypt. The impact of changes in land use and climate on the distribution of the plant species was assessed. The results indicate that the changes in land use in the area have resulted in habitat loss for all the modeled species. Projected future changes in land use reveals that all the modeled species will continue to suffer habitat loss. The projected impact of modeled climate scenarios (A1B, A2A and B2A on the distribution of the modeled species by 2040 varied. Some of the species were projected to be adversely affected by the changes in climate, while other species are expected to benefit from these changes. The combined impact of the changes in land use and climate pose serious threats to most of the modeled species. The study found that all the species are expected to suffer loss in habitat, except Gymnocarpos decanderus. The study highlights the importance of assessing the impact of land use/climate change scenarios on other species of restricted distribution in the area and can help shape policy and mitigation measures directed toward biodiversity conservation in Egypt.

Hylid frogs from Mount Ayanganna, Guyana: new species, redescriptions, and distributional records

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Ross D. MacCulloch

2005-10-01

Full Text Available A new species of Osteocephalus, one species of Hyla, three species of Hypsiboas and one of Myersiohyla were collected on Mount Ayanganna, a sandstone Guiana Shield tepui. Hyla warreni, Hypsiboas roraima, H. sibleszi, Myersiohyla kanaima and the new Osteocephalus were collected in high-tepui forest at 1500 m elevation, while Hypsiboas lemai, H. roraima and M. kanaima were also collected in lower montane forest at 870 m. Supplementary descriptions of adults of all species of Hyla, Hypsiboas and Myersiohyla based on the newly collected specimens are provided. Tadpoles of M. kanaima are described. The specimens from Ayanganna represent significant distributional records for several species. This is the first record of Osteocephalus as a member of the Guiana Shield high-tepui herpetofauna.

Past climate-driven range shifts and population genetic diversity in arctic plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pellissier, Loïc; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken; Ehrich, Dorothee

2016-01-01

High intra-specific genetic diversity is necessary for species adaptation to novel environments under climate change, but species tracking suitable conditions are losing alleles through successive founder events during range shift. Here, we investigated the relationship between range shift since ...... the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and extant population genetic diversity across multiple plant species to understand variability in species responses...

Underappreciated species in ecology: "ugly fish" in the northwest Atlantic Ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Link, Jason S

2007-10-01

Species shifts and replacements are common in ecological studies. Observations thereof serve as the impetus for many ecological endeavors. Many of the species now known to dominate ecosystem functioning were largely ignored until studies of those underappreciated species elucidated their critical roles. Recognizing the potential importance of underappreciated species has implications for functional redundancies in ecosystems and should alter our approach to long-term monitoring. One example of an applied ecological system containing species shifts, underappreciated species, and potential changes in functional redundancies is the topic of fisheries. The demersal component of many fish communities usually consists of high-profile and commercially valuable species that are targets of fisheries, plus a diverse group of lesser known species that have minimal commercial value and focus. Yet ecologically these traditionally nontargeted species are often a major biomass sink in marine ecosystems and can also be critical in the functioning of bentho-demersal food webs. I examined the biomass trajectories of several species of skates, cottids, lophiids, anarhichadids, zooarcids, and similar species in the northeast U.S. Atlantic ecosystem to determine whether their relative abundance has changed across the past four decades. Distribution and stomach contents of these species were also evaluated over time to further elucidate the relative importance of these species. Landings of these underappreciated bentho-demersal fish were also examined in comparison to those species that historically have been commercially targeted. Of particular emphasis was the evaluation of evidence for sequential stock depletion and the ramifications for functional redundancy for this ecosystem. Results indicate that some of these fish species are now the dominant piscivores, benthivores, and scavengers in this ecosystem. These formerly under-studied species generally have either maintained a

Evaluating the Significance of Paleophylogeographic Species Distribution Models in Reconstructing Quaternary Range-Shifts of Nearctic Chelonians

OpenAIRE

R?dder, Dennis; Lawing, A. Michelle; Flecks, Morris; Ahmadzadeh, Faraham; Dambach, Johannes; Engler, Jan O.; Habel, Jan Christian; Hartmann, Timo; H?rnes, David; Ihlow, Flora; Schidelko, Kathrin; Stiels, Darius; Polly, P. David

2013-01-01

The climatic cycles of the Quaternary, during which global mean annual temperatures have regularly changed by 5-10°C, provide a special opportunity for studying the rate, magnitude, and effects of geographic responses to changing climates. During the Quaternary, high- and mid-latitude species were extirpated from regions that were covered by ice or otherwise became unsuitable, persisting in refugial retreats where the environment was compatible with their tolerances. In this study we combine ...

Using geomorphological variables to predict the spatial distribution of plant species in agricultural drainage networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudi, Gabrielle; Bailly, Jean-Stéphane; Vinatier, Fabrice

2018-01-01

To optimize ecosystem services provided by agricultural drainage networks (ditches) in headwater catchments, we need to manage the spatial distribution of plant species living in these networks. Geomorphological variables have been shown to be important predictors of plant distribution in other ecosystems because they control the water regime, the sediment deposition rates and the sun exposure in the ditches. Whether such variables may be used to predict plant distribution in agricultural drainage networks is unknown. We collected presence and absence data for 10 herbaceous plant species in a subset of a network of drainage ditches (35 km long) within a Mediterranean agricultural catchment. We simulated their spatial distribution with GLM and Maxent model using geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads. Models were validated using k-fold cross-validation. We then compared the mean Area Under the Curve (AUC) values obtained for each model and other metrics issued from the confusion matrices between observed and predicted variables. Based on the results of all metrics, the models were efficient at predicting the distribution of seven species out of ten, confirming the relevance of geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads to explain the occurrence of plant species in this Mediterranean catchment. In particular, the importance of the landscape geomorphological variables, ie the importance of the geomorphological features encompassing a broad environment around the ditch, has been highlighted. This suggests that agro-ecological measures for managing ecosystem services provided by ditch plants should focus on the control of the hydrological and sedimentological connectivity at the catchment scale. For example, the density of the ditch network could be modified or the spatial distribution of vegetative filter strips used for sediment trapping could be optimized. In addition, the vegetative filter strips could constitute

Effects of climate change on three species of Cupido (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae) with different biogeographic distribution in Andalusia, southern Spain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Obregon, R.; Fernandez Haeger, J.; Jordano, D.

2016-07-01

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of rare or endangered species is of key importance to assess conservation status at different geographic scales and to develop conservation and recovery programs. In this paper we review and update the distribution of three species of Lycaenid butterflies in Andalusia (southern Spain): Cupido carswelli, C. lorquinii, and C. osiris. Cupido carswelli is endemic in south east Spain and is considered a vulnerable species in the Red Book of Invertebrates of Andalusia. Cupido lorquinii is an Iberian–Maghrebian endemism, found in the southern half of the Iberian peninsula. Cupido osiris, widely distributed in Europe and Central Asia, has its southern limit of distribution in Andalusia. We modeled the potential current distribution of these species in Andalusia, using Maxent. Their potential distribution was mainly conditioned by the presence of their host plants and, to a lesser extent, by climatic variables: rainfall during the warmest and coldest quarters of the year and annual mean temperature. AUC test values, sensitivity, and specificity for the three models were high, confirming the accuracy of the models and their high predictive values. We also modeled the potential future distributions of the three species under the climate change scenario A2a. Our results predict a significant reduction in the potential distribution for C. lorquinii —which has a wider distribution in Andalusia than the other two species— and for the more localized species, C. osiris and C. carswelli. This expected decline in the south of the Iberian peninsula highlights the pressing need to design and implement specific conservation plans for these species. (Author)

Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

2014-12-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents

Do predictions from Species Sensitivity Distributions match with field data?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smetanová, S.; Bláha, L.; Liess, M.; Schäfer, R.B.; Beketov, M.A.

2014-01-01

Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) is a statistical model that can be used to predict effects of contaminants on biological communities, but only few comparisons of this model with field studies have been conducted so far. In the present study we used measured pesticides concentrations from streams in Germany, France, and Finland, and we used SSD to calculate msPAF (multiple substance potentially affected fraction) values based on maximum toxic stress at localities. We compared these SSD-based predictions with the actual effects on stream invertebrates quantified by the SPEAR pesticides bioindicator. The results show that the msPAFs correlated well with the bioindicator, however, the generally accepted SSD threshold msPAF of 0.05 (5% of species are predicted to be affected) severely underestimated the observed effects (msPAF values causing significant effects are 2–1000-times lower). These results demonstrate that validation with field data is required to define the appropriate thresholds for SSD predictions. - Highlights: • We validated the statistical model Species Sensitivity Distribution with field data. • Good correlation was found between the model predictions and observed effects. • But, the generally accepted threshold msPAF 0.05 severely underestimated the effects. - Comparison of the SSD-based prediction with the field data evaluated with the SPEAR pesticides index shows that SSD threshold msPAF of 0.05 severely underestimates the effects observed in the field

Physico-chemical thresholds in the distribution of fish species among French lakes

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Roubeix Vincent

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The management of lakes requires the definition of physico-chemical thresholds to be used for ecosystem preservation or restoration. According to the European Water Framework Directive, the limits between physico-chemical quality classes must be set consistently with biological quality elements. One way to do this consists in analyzing the response of aquatic communities to environmental gradients across monitoring sites and in identifying ecological community thresholds, i.e. zones in the gradients where the species turnover is the highest. In this study, fish data from 196 lakes in France were considered to derive ecological thresholds using the multivariate method of gradient forest. The analysis was performed on 25 species and 36 environmental parameters. The results revealed the highest importance of maximal water temperature in the distribution of fish species. Other important parameters included geographical factors, dissolved organic carbon concentration and water transparency, while nutrients appeared to have low influence. In spite of the diversity of species responses to the gradients, community thresholds were detected in the gradients of the most important physico-chemical parameters and of total phosphorus and nitrate concentrations as well. The thresholds identified in such macroecological study may highlight new patterns of species natural distribution and improve niche characterization. Moreover, when factors that may be influenced by human activities are involved, the thresholds could be used to set environmental standards for lake preservation.