Probabilistic safety assessment for seismic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-10-01

This Technical Document on Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Seismic Events is mainly associated with the Safety Practice on Treatment of External Hazards in PSA and discusses in detail one specific external hazard, i.e. earthquakes

The unique contribution of the IDC Reviewed Event Bulletin to global seismicity catalogues

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Koch, Karl; Kebede, Fekadu

2010-05-01

For monitoring the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) the International Monitoring System (IMS) network is currently being established that will eventually consists of 241 seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasound stations. The final result of processing and analysis of seismological and other waveform technology data from these stations is the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB), which has been issued by the International Data Center (IDC) under provisional operation since February 2000 on a daily basis, except for a total of 28 days. The nearly 300,000 events produced since then correspond to more than 25,000 events per year. As an accompanying effort to the bulletin production at the IDC, quality assurance work has been carried out for the REB for the years from 2000 to 2008 through comparisons to similar bulletins of global seismicity, issued by the ISC and the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the United States Geological Survey. The comparisons with the NEIC bulletin concentrate on a timely identification of larger events that were either missed during interactive analysis at the IDC or which have been significantly mislocated. For the scope of this study the comparisons with the ISC bulletin are the focus, as this bulletin provides the most complete reference to global seismicity, even though it becomes available only after about two years of event occurrence. In our quality assessments we aimed at evaluating the consistency of event locations for common events, i.e. found in both the REB and the ISC bulletin having been relocated by ISC; the degree and the geospatial location of the events only produced in the REB and verified not being bogus, and those ISC relocated events not contained in the REB and which were missed during IDC analysis. Even though the seismic component of the IMS network with its maximum 170 seismometer stations is a sparse teleseismic network, locations differences of less than 1° (0.5° ) are observed, on average, for

Correlation Between Electromagnetic Signals and Seismic Events on Central Colombia Region to Establish Seismic Precursors Existence

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Caneva, A.; Vargas Jiménez, C. A.; Solano Fino, J. M.

2017-12-01

It was already shown by several authors around the world some kinds of correlation between electric and magnetic signals and seismic events looking for precursors to the last ones emitted from the seismic source. This investigation tends to establish a correlation between electro-magnetic (EM) signals on the ground surface and seismic events on the Colombian lithospheric system. The events correlation was made with data from the Seismological Network of the Sabana de Bogotá (RSSB for its acronym in Spanish), a temporal seismological network on Chichimene (Acacías, Meta, Colombia) and the National Seismological Network of Colombia (RSNC, for its acronym in Spanish). The project involved the design, construction and preliminary tests for the necessary instruments added to the RSSB as multi-parameter stations with seismic broadband, electric polarizing and non-polarizing dipoles and Earth's magnetic field sensors. Correlations were made considering time, frequency and `natural time' domains with filtering and preprocessing algorithms. Among the main results are the almost complete lack of electric disturbances known as Seismic Electric Signals (SES) and very few of the magnetic kind. However, another kind of long period magnetic disturbances for some stations and events where found. More instruments have to be deployed in order to get a better understanding of these disturbances and develop a robust model.

Spatial clustering and repeating of seismic events observed along the 1976 Tangshan fault, north China

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Li, Le; Chen, Qi-Fu; Cheng, Xin; Niu, Fenglin

2007-12-01

Spatial and temporal features of the seismicity occurring along the Tangshan fault in 2001-2006 were investigated with data recorded by the Beijing metropolitan digital Seismic Network. The relocated seismicity with the double difference method clearly exhibits a dextral bend in the middle of the fault. More than 85% of the earthquakes were found in the two clusters forming the northern segment where relatively small coseismic slips were observed during the 1976 M7.8 earthquake. The b values calculated from the seismicity occurring in the northern and southern segment are 1.03 +/- 0.02 and 0.85 +/- 0.03, respectively. The distinct seismicity and b values are probably the collective effect of the fault geometry and the regional stress field that has an ENE-WSW oriented compression. Using cross-correlation and fine relocation analyses, we also identified a total of 21 doublets and 25 multiplets that make up >50% of the total seismicity. Most of the sequences are aperiodic with recurrence intervals varying from a few minutes to hundreds of days. Based on a quasi-periodic sequence, we obtained a fault slip rate of <=2.6 mm/yr at ~15 km, which is consistent with surface GPS measurements.

Shallow repeating seismic events under an alpine glacier at Mount Rainier, Washington, USA

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Thelen, Weston A.; Allstadt, Kate E.; De Angelis, Silvio; Malone, Stephen D.; Moran, Seth C.; Vidale, John

2013-01-01

We observed several swarms of repeating low-frequency (1–5 Hz) seismic events during a 3 week period in May–June 2010, near the summit of Mount Rainier, Washington, USA, that likely were a result of stick–slip motion at the base of alpine glaciers. The dominant set of repeating events ('multiplets') featured >4000 individual events and did not exhibit daytime variations in recurrence interval or amplitude. Volcanoes and glaciers around the world are known to produce seismic signals with great variability in both frequency content and size. The low-frequency character and periodic recurrence of the Mount Rainier multiplets mimic long-period seismicity often seen at volcanoes, particularly during periods of unrest. However, their near-surface location, lack of common spectral peaks across the recording network, rapid attenuation of amplitudes with distance, and temporal correlation with weather systems all indicate that ice-related source mechanisms are the most likely explanation. We interpret the low-frequency character of these multiplets to be the result of trapping of seismic energy under glacial ice as it propagates through the highly heterogeneous and attenuating volcanic material. The Mount Rainier multiplet sequences underscore the difficulties in differentiating low-frequency signals due to glacial processes from those caused by volcanic processes on glacier-clad volcanoes.

Isotropic events observed with a borehole array in the Chelungpu fault zone, Taiwan.

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Ma, Kuo-Fong; Lin, Yen-Yu; Lee, Shiann-Jong; Mori, Jim; Brodsky, Emily E

2012-07-27

Shear failure is the dominant mode of earthquake-causing rock failure along faults. High fluid pressure can also potentially induce rock failure by opening cavities and cracks, but an active example of this process has not been directly observed in a fault zone. Using borehole array data collected along the low-stress Chelungpu fault zone, Taiwan, we observed several small seismic events (I-type events) in a fluid-rich permeable zone directly below the impermeable slip zone of the 1999 moment magnitude 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake. Modeling of the events suggests an isotropic, nonshear source mechanism likely associated with natural hydraulic fractures. These seismic events may be associated with the formation of veins and other fluid features often observed in rocks surrounding fault zones and may be similar to artificially induced hydraulic fracturing.

Detection of ULF geomagnetic signals associated with seismic events in Central Mexico using Discrete Wavelet Transform

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O. Chavez

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The geomagnetic observatory of Juriquilla Mexico, located at longitude –100.45° and latitude 20.70°, and 1946 m a.s.l., has been operational since June 2004 compiling geomagnetic field measurements with a three component fluxgate magnetometer. In this paper, the results of the analysis of these measurements in relation to important seismic activity in the period of 2007 to 2009 are presented. For this purpose, we used superposed epochs of Discrete Wavelet Transform of filtered signals for the three components of the geomagnetic field during relative seismic calm, and it was compared with seismic events of magnitudes greater than M_s > 5.5, which have occurred in Mexico. The analysed epochs consisted of 18 h of observations for a dataset corresponding to 18 different earthquakes (EQs. The time series were processed for a period of 9 h prior to and 9 h after each seismic event. This data processing was compared with the same number of observations during a seismic calm. The proposed methodology proved to be an efficient tool to detect signals associated with seismic activity, especially when the seismic events occur in a distance (D from the observatory to the EQ, such that the ratio D/ρ < 1.8 where ρ is the earthquake radius preparation zone. The methodology presented herein shows important anomalies in the Ultra Low Frequency Range (ULF; 0.005–1 Hz, primarily for 0.25 to 0.5 Hz. Furthermore, the time variance (σ² increases prior to, during and after the seismic event in relation to the coefficient D1 obtained, principally in the Bx (N-S and By (E-W geomagnetic components. Therefore, this paper proposes and develops a new methodology to extract the abnormal signals of the geomagnetic anomalies related to different stages of the EQs.

Impact of the 2001 Tohoku-oki earthquake to Tokyo Metropolitan area observed by the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net)

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Hirata, N.; Hayashi, H.; Nakagawa, S.; Sakai, S.; Honda, R.; Kasahara, K.; Obara, K.; Aketagawa, T.; Kimura, H.; Sato, H.; Okaya, D. A.

2011-12-01

The March 11, 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake brought a great impact to the Tokyo metropolitan area in both seismological aspect and seismic risk management although Tokyo is located 340 km from the epicenter. The event generated very strong ground motion even in the metropolitan area and resulted severe requifaction in many places of Kanto district. National and local governments have started to discuss counter measurement for possible seismic risks in the area taking account for what they learned from the Tohoku-oki event which is much larger than ever experienced in Japan Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9). An M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that an M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. We will discuss the main results that are obtained in the respective fields which have been integrated to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area; the project has been much improved after the Tohoku event. In order to image seismic structure beneath the Metropolitan Tokyo area we have developed Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net; Hirata et al., 2009). We have installed 296 seismic stations every few km (Kasahara et al., 2011). We conducted seismic

Pre-seismic anomalies from optical satellite observations: a review

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Jiao, Zhong-Hu; Zhao, Jing; Shan, Xinjian

2018-04-01

Detecting various anomalies using optical satellite data prior to strong earthquakes is key to understanding and forecasting earthquake activities because of its recognition of thermal-radiation-related phenomena in seismic preparation phases. Data from satellite observations serve as a powerful tool in monitoring earthquake preparation areas at a global scale and in a nearly real-time manner. Over the past several decades, many new different data sources have been utilized in this field, and progressive anomaly detection approaches have been developed. This paper reviews the progress and development of pre-seismic anomaly detection technology in this decade. First, precursor parameters, including parameters from the top of the atmosphere, in the atmosphere, and on the Earth's surface, are stated and discussed. Second, different anomaly detection methods, which are used to extract anomalous signals that probably indicate future seismic events, are presented. Finally, certain critical problems with the current research are highlighted, and new developing trends and perspectives for future work are discussed. The development of Earth observation satellites and anomaly detection algorithms can enrich available information sources, provide advanced tools for multilevel earthquake monitoring, and improve short- and medium-term forecasting, which play a large and growing role in pre-seismic anomaly detection research.

Location of the Green Canyon (Offshore Southern Louisiana) Seismic Event of February 10, 2006

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Dewey, James W.; Dellinger, Joseph A.

2008-01-01

We calculated an epicenter for the Offshore Southern Louisiana seismic event of February 10, 2006 (the 'Green Canyon event') that was adopted as the preferred epicenter for the event by the USGS/NEIC. The event is held at a focal depth of 5 km; the focal depth could not be reliably calculated but was most likely between 1 km and 15 km beneath sea level. The epicenter was calculated with a radially symmetric global Earth model similar to that routinely used at the USGS/NEIC for all earthquakes worldwide. The location was calculated using P-waves recorded by seismographic stations from which the USGS/NEIC routinely obtains seismological data, plus data from two seismic exploration arrays, the Atlantis ocean-bottom node array, operated by BP in partnership with BHP Billiton Limited, and the CGG Green Canyon phase VIII multi-client towed-streamer survey. The preferred epicenter is approximately 26 km north of an epicenter earlier published by the USGS/NEIC, which was obtained without benefit of the seismic exploration arrays. We estimate that the preferred epicenter is accurate to within 15 km. We selected the preferred epicenter from a suite of trial calculations that attempted to fit arrival times of seismic energy associated with the Green Canyon event and that explored the effect of errors in the velocity model used to calculate the preferred epicenter. The various trials were helpful in confirming the approximate correctness of the preferred epicenter and in assessing the accuracy of the preferred epicenter, but none of the trial calculations, including that of the preferred epicenter, was able to reconcile arrival-time observations and assumed velocity model as well as is typical for the vast majority of earthquakes in and near the continental United States. We believe that remaining misfits between the preferred solution and the observations reflect errors in interpreted arrival times of emergent seismic phases that are due partly to a temporally extended source

Improvement of seismic observation systems in JOYO

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sumino, Kozo; Suto, Masayoshi; Tanaka, Akihiro

2013-01-01

In the experimental fast reactor 'Joyo' in order to perform the seismic observation in and around the building block and ground, SMAC type seismographs had continuously been used for about 38 years. However, this equipment aged, and the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake on Mach 11, 2011 increased the importance of seismic data of the reactor facilities from the viewpoint of earthquake-proof safety. For these reasons, Joyo updated the system to the seismic observation system reflecting the latest technology/information, while keeping consistency with the observation data of the former seismographs (SMAC type seismograph). This updating improved various problems on the former observation seismographs. In addition, the installation of now observation points in the locations that are important in seismic safety evaluation expanded the data, and further improved the reliability of the seismic observation and evaluation on 'Joyo'. (A.O.)

Long-term seismic observations along Myanmar-Sunda subduction margin: insights for 2004 M w > 9.0 earthquake

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Khan, Prosanta Kumar; Banerjee, Jayashree; Shamim, Sk; Mohanty, Manoranjan

2018-03-01

The present study investigates the temporal variation of few seismic parameters between the Myanmar (Zone I), Andaman-Nicobar-Northwest Sumatra (Zone II), Southeast Sumatra-West Indonesia (Zone III) and East Indonesia (Zone IV) converging boundaries in reference to the generation of 26 December 2004 M w > 9.0 off-Sumatra mega-earthquake event. The four segments are distinguished based on tectonics parameters, distinct geological locations, great earthquake occurrences, and the Wadati-Benioff zone characteristics. Two important seismic parameters such as seismic energy and b values are computed over a time-window of 6-month period during the entire 1976-2013 period for these segments. The b values show a constant decrease in Zones II, III, and IV, whereas the Zone I does not show any such pattern prior to the 2004 mega-event. The release of seismic energy was also gradually decreasing in Zones II and III till the 2004 event, and little similar pattern was also noted in Zone IV. This distinct observation might be indicating that the stress accumulation was dominant near the Sumatra-Java area located towards southeast of Zone II and northwest of Zone III. The released strain energy during the 2004 event was subsequently migrated towards north, rupturing 1300 km of the boundary between the Northwest Sumatra and the North Andaman. The occurrence of 2004 mega-event was apparently concealed behind the long-term seismic quiescence existing near the Sumatra and Nicobar margin. A systematic study of the patterns of seismic energy release and b values, and the long-term observation of collective behaviour of the margin tectonics might have had given clues to the possibility of the 2004 mega-event.

Detecting Seismic Events Using a Supervised Hidden Markov Model

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Burks, L.; Forrest, R.; Ray, J.; Young, C.

2017-12-01

We explore the use of supervised hidden Markov models (HMMs) to detect seismic events in streaming seismogram data. Current methods for seismic event detection include simple triggering algorithms, such as STA/LTA and the Z-statistic, which can lead to large numbers of false positives that must be investigated by an analyst. The hypothesis of this study is that more advanced detection methods, such as HMMs, may decreases false positives while maintaining accuracy similar to current methods. We train a binary HMM classifier using 2 weeks of 3-component waveform data from the International Monitoring System (IMS) that was carefully reviewed by an expert analyst to pick all seismic events. Using an ensemble of simple and discrete features, such as the triggering of STA/LTA, the HMM predicts the time at which transition occurs from noise to signal. Compared to the STA/LTA detection algorithm, the HMM detects more true events, but the false positive rate remains unacceptably high. Future work to potentially decrease the false positive rate may include using continuous features, a Gaussian HMM, and multi-class HMMs to distinguish between types of seismic waves (e.g., P-waves and S-waves). Acknowledgement: Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.SAND No: SAND2017-8154 A

WILBER and PyWEED: Event-based Seismic Data Request Tools

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Falco, N.; Clark, A.; Trabant, C. M.

2017-12-01

WILBER and PyWEED are two user-friendly tools for requesting event-oriented seismic data. Both tools provide interactive maps and other controls for browsing and filtering event and station catalogs, and downloading data for selected event/station combinations, where the data window for each event/station pair may be defined relative to the arrival time of seismic waves from the event to that particular station. Both tools allow data to be previewed visually, and can download data in standard miniSEED, SAC, and other formats, complete with relevant metadata for performing instrument correction. WILBER is a web application requiring only a modern web browser. Once the user has selected an event, WILBER identifies all data available for that time period, and allows the user to select stations based on criteria such as the station's distance and orientation relative to the event. When the user has finalized their request, the data is collected and packaged on the IRIS server, and when it is ready the user is sent a link to download. PyWEED is a downloadable, cross-platform (Macintosh / Windows / Linux) application written in Python. PyWEED allows a user to select multiple events and stations, and will download data for each event/station combination selected. PyWEED is built around the ObsPy seismic toolkit, and allows direct interaction and control of the application through a Python interactive console.

Focal mechanism of seismic events with a dipolar component

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R. Console

1995-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper we model the geometry of a seismic source as a dislocation occurring on an elemental flat fault in an arbitrary direction with respect to the fault plane. This implies the use of a fourth parameter in addition to the three usual ones describing a simple double couple mechanism. We applied the radiation pattern obtained from the theory to a computer code written for the inversion of the observation data (amplitudes and polarities of the first onsets recorded by a network of stations. It allows the determination of the fault mechanism gener- alized in the above mentioned way. The computer code was verified on synthetic data and then applied to real data recorded by the seismic network operated by the Ente Nazionale per l'Energia Elettrica (ENEL, monitoring the geothermal field of Larderello. The experimental data show that for some events the source mechanism exhibits a significant dipolar component. However, due to the high standard deviation of the amplitude data, F-test applied to the results of the analysis shows that only for two events the confidence level for the general- ized model exceeds 90%.

Fundamental aspects of seismic event detection, magnitude estimation and their interrelation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringdal, F.

1977-01-01

The main common subject of the papers forming this thesis is statistical model development within the seismological disciplines of seismic event detection and event magnitude estimation. As more high quality seismic data become available as a result of recent seismic network developments, the opportunity will exist for large scale application and further refinement of these models. It is hoped that the work presented here will facilitate improved understanding of the basic issues, both within earthquake-explosion discrimination, in the framework of which most of this work originated, and in seismology in general. (Auth.)

Automatic Classification of volcano-seismic events based on Deep Neural Networks.

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Titos Luzón, M.; Bueno Rodriguez, A.; Garcia Martinez, L.; Benitez, C.; Ibáñez, J. M.

2017-12-01

Seismic monitoring of active volcanoes is a popular remote sensing technique to detect seismic activity, often associated to energy exchanges between the volcano and the environment. As a result, seismographs register a wide range of volcano-seismic signals that reflect the nature and underlying physics of volcanic processes. Machine learning and signal processing techniques provide an appropriate framework to analyze such data. In this research, we propose a new classification framework for seismic events based on deep neural networks. Deep neural networks are composed by multiple processing layers, and can discover intrinsic patterns from the data itself. Internal parameters can be initialized using a greedy unsupervised pre-training stage, leading to an efficient training of fully connected architectures. We aim to determine the robustness of these architectures as classifiers of seven different types of seismic events recorded at "Volcán de Fuego" (Colima, Mexico). Two deep neural networks with different pre-training strategies are studied: stacked denoising autoencoder and deep belief networks. Results are compared to existing machine learning algorithms (SVM, Random Forest, Multilayer Perceptron). We used 5 LPC coefficients over three non-overlapping segments as training features in order to characterize temporal evolution, avoid redundancy and encode the signal, regardless of its duration. Experimental results show that deep architectures can classify seismic events with higher accuracy than classical algorithms, attaining up to 92% recognition accuracy. Pre-training initialization helps these models to detect events that occur simultaneously in time (such explosions and rockfalls), increase robustness against noisy inputs, and provide better generalization. These results demonstrate deep neural networks are robust classifiers, and can be deployed in real-environments to monitor the seismicity of restless volcanoes.

Martian seismicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goins, N.R.; Lazarewicz, A.R.

1979-01-01

During the Viking mission to Mars, the seismometer on Lander II collected approximately 0.24 Earth years of observations data, excluding periods of time dominated by wind-induced Lander vibration. The ''quiet-time'' data set contains no confirmed seismic events. A proper assessment of the significance of this fact requires quantitative estimates of the expected detection rate of the Viking seismometer. The first step is to calculate the minimum magnitude event detectable at a given distance, including the effects of geometric spreading, anelastic attenuation, seismic signal duration, seismometer frequency response, and possible poor ground coupling. Assuming various numerical quantities and a Martian seismic activity comparable to that of intraplate earthquakes, the appropriate integral gives an expected annual detection rate of 10 events, nearly all of which are local. Thus only two to three events would be expected in the observational period presently on hand and the lack of observed events is not in gross contradiction to reasonable expectations. Given the same assumptions, a seismometer 20 times more sensitive than the present instrument would be expected to detect about 120 events annually

Multiple Seismic Array Observations for Tracing Deep Tremor Activity in Western Shikoku, Japan

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Takeda, T.; Matsuzawa, T.; Shiomi, K.; Obara, K.

2011-12-01

Deep non-volcanic tremors become very active during episodic slow-slip events in western Japan and Cascadia. The episodic tremor and slow-slip events in western Shikoku, Japan, occur at a typical interval of 6 months. Recently, it has been reported that tremor migration activity is complex and shows different migrating directions depending on time scales (Ghosh et al., 2010). Such characteristics of tremor are important to understand the mechanism of tremor and the relationship between tremor and SSEs. However it is difficult to determine the location of tremors with high accuracy because tremors show faint signals and make the identification of P/S-wave arrivals difficult. Seismic array analysis is useful to evaluate tremor activity, especially to estimate the arrival direction of seismic energy (e.g. Ueno et al., 2010, Ghosh et al., 2010), as it can distinguish multiple tremor sources occurring simultaneously. Here, we have conducted seismic array observation and analyzed seismic data during tremor activity by applying the MUSIC method to trace tremor location and its migration in western Shikoku. We have installed five seismic arrays in western Shikoku since January 2011. One of the arrays contains 30 stations with 3-component seismometers with a natural frequency of 2 Hz (Type-L array). The array aperture size is 2 km and the mean interval between stations is approximately 200 m. Each of the other arrays (Type-S array) contains 9 seismic stations with the same type of seismometers of the Type-L array, and is deployed surrounding the Type-L array. The small array aperture size is 800 m and its mean station interval is approximately 150 m. All array stations have recorded continuous waveform data at a sampling of 200Hz. In May 2011, an episodic tremor and a short-term slip event occurred for the first time during the observation period. We could retrieve the array seismic data during the whole tremor episode. The analysis of data from the type-L array confirms

Monitoring changes in seismic velocity related to an ongoing rapid inflation event at Okmok volcano, Alaska

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Bennington, Ninfa; Haney, Matt; De Angelis, Silvio; Thurber, Clifford; Freymueller, Jeff

2015-01-01

Okmok is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc. In an effort to improve our ability to detect precursory activity leading to eruption at Okmok, we monitor a recent, and possibly ongoing, GPS-inferred rapid inflation event at the volcano using ambient noise interferometry (ANI). Applying this method, we identify changes in seismic velocity outside of Okmok’s caldera, which are related to the hydrologic cycle. Within the caldera, we observe decreases in seismic velocity that are associated with the GPS-inferred rapid inflation event. We also determine temporal changes in waveform decorrelation and show a continual increase in decorrelation rate over the time associated with the rapid inflation event. Themagnitude of relative velocity decreases and decorrelation rate increases are comparable to previous studies at Piton de la Fournaise that associate such changes with increased production of volatiles and/ormagmatic intrusion within the magma reservoir and associated opening of fractures and/or fissures. Notably, the largest decrease in relative velocity occurs along the intrastation path passing nearest to the center of the caldera. This observation, along with equal amplitude relative velocity decreases revealed via analysis of intracaldera autocorrelations, suggests that the inflation sourcemay be located approximately within the center of the caldera and represent recharge of shallow magma storage in this location. Importantly, there is a relative absence of seismicity associated with this and previous rapid inflation events at Okmok. Thus, these ANI results are the first seismic evidence of such rapid inflation at the volcano.

Long Term Seismic Observation in Mariana by OBSs : Double Seismic Zone and Upper Mantle Structure

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Shiobara, H.; Sugioka, H.; Mochizuki, K.; Oki, S.; Kanazawa, T.; Fukao, Y.; Suyehiro, K.

2005-12-01

In order to obtain the deep arc structural image of Mariana, a large-scale seismic observation by using 58 long-term ocean bottom seismometers (LTOBS) had been performed from June 2003 until April 2004, which is a part of the MARGINS program funded by the NSF. Prior to this observation, a pilot long-term seismic array observation was conducted in the same area by using 10 LTOBSs from Oct. 2001 until Feb. 2003. At that time, 8 LTOBSs were recovered but one had no data. Recently, 2 LTOBSs, had troubles in the releasing, were recovered by the manned submersible (Shinkai 6500, Jamstec) for the research of the malfunction in July 2005. By using all 9 LTOBS's data, those are about 11 months long, hypocenter determination was performed and more than 3000 local events were found. Even with the 1D velocity structure based on the iasp91 model, double seismic zones and a systematic shift of epicenters between the PDE and this study were observed. To investigate the detail of hypocenter distribution and the 3D velocity structure, the DD inversion (tomoDD: Zhang and Thurber, 2003) was applied for this data set with the 1D structure initial model except for the crust, which has been surveyed by using a dense airgun-OBS system (Takahashi et al., 2003). The result of relocated hypocenters shows clear double seismic zones until about 200 km depth, a high activity area around the fore-arc serpentine sea-mount, the Big Blue, and a lined focuses along the current ridge axis in the back-arc basin, and the result of the tomography shows a image of subducting slab and a low-Vs region below the same sea-mount mentioned. The wedge mantle structure was not clearly resolved due to the inadequate source-receiver coverage, which will be done in the recent experiment.

Seismic network at the Olkiluoto site and microearthquake observations in 2002-2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saari, J.; Malm, M.

2014-05-01

This report describes the structure and operation of Posiva's seismic network after the comprehensive upgrade performed in 2013 and presents a summary of its micro-earthquake observations in 2002 - 2013. Excavation of the underground rock characterisation facility called ONKALO started in 2004. Before that, in February 2002, Posiva Oy established a local seismic network of six stations on the island of Olkiluoto. The number of seismic stations has increased gradually and communication, hardware and software have developed in over ten years. The upgrade in 2013 included data transmission, the equipment in several seismic stations, the server responsible for the data processing in Olkiluoto and software applied in operation and analysis of observations. After the upgrade Posiva's permanent seismic network consists of 17 seismic stations and 21 triaxial sensors. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The investigation area includes two target areas, of which the larger one, the seismic semi-regional area, includes the Olkiluoto island and its surroundings. The aim is to monitor explosions and tectonic earthquakes in regional scale inside that area. All the expected excavation induced events are assumed to occur inside the smaller target area, the seismic ONKALO block, which is a 2 km x 2 km x 2 km cube surrounding the ONKALO. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the construction of the ONKALO.In the beginning the network monitored tectonic earthquakes in order to characterise the undisturbed baseline of seismicity in Olkiluoto. After August 2004, the network also monitored excavation induced seismicity. The first three excavation induced earthquakes were recorded in September 2005. At the moment the total number of excavation induced earthquakes is 17. During the same time about 10 000 excavation blasts were located. The

Monitoring El Hierro submarine volcanic eruption events with a submarine seismic array

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Jurado, Maria Jose; Molino, Erik; Lopez, Carmen

2013-04-01

A submarine volcanic eruption took place near the southernmost emerged land of the El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain), from October 2011 to February 2012. The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) seismic stations network evidenced seismic unrest since July 2012 and was a reference also to follow the evolution of the seismic activity associated with the volcanic eruption. From the beginning of the eruption a geophone string was installed less than 2 km away from the new volcano, next to La Restinga village shore, to record seismic activity related to the volcanic activity, continuously and with special interest on high frequency events. The seismic array was endowed with 8, high frequency, 3 component, 250 Hz, geophone cable string with a separation of 6 m between them. The analysis of the dataset using spectral techniques allows the characterization of the different phases of the eruption and the study of its dynamics. The correlation of the data analysis results with the observed sea surface activity (ash and lava emission and degassing) and also with the seismic activity recorded by the IGN field seismic monitoring system, allows the identification of different stages suggesting the existence of different signal sources during the volcanic eruption and also the posteruptive record of the degassing activity. The study shows that the high frequency capability of the geophone array allow the study of important features that cannot be registered by the standard seismic stations. The accumulative spectral amplitude show features related to eruptive changes.

Study of seismic events in the Central Part of East European Platform

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Gorbunova, Ella; Sanina, Irina; Ivanchenko, Galina; Nesterkina, Margarita; Konstantinovskaya, Natalya

2015-04-01

A measurement system for location seismic events in the Central Part of East European Platform is situated within the Mikhnevo Geophysical Observatory of the RAS Institute of Geospheres Dynamics and consists of 12 seismic stations. One vertical station is located in the center of the group in a shaft tunnel. The other stations are located on the periphery in three concentric circles and are almost equally spaced with regard to the terrain to ensure full azimuth coverage to the maximum extent possible. The unique array identifies events with a magnitude up to 3 at the distances until 1000 km within the Central Part of East European platform. Most of the events recorded by the Mikhnevo array at a distance of 60-500 km are man-made events represented by explosions in quarries during the development of mineral deposits. Long-term seismic records of explosions in quarries have been processed for the period from 2004 to 2014 to generate a database containing standard waveforms for each quarry. Some events of unknown origin appear in the records for this period; these do not correspond to the identified seismic forms for explosions in known quarries. Epicenter coordinates for these events do not match the coordinates of the known quarries. A cosmotectonic map of the Central Part of East European Platform was compiled during the studies using the LESSA software package (Lineament Extraction and Stripe Statistical Analysis) and data on the deep crustal structure, which made it possible to define the morphostructural plan and evaluate the geodynamic conditions in the area. The deep basement structure through the sedimentary cover is expressed in the surface texture of the area under study. The region's neotectonics is closely related to the history of deep structures, in particular, aulacogens extending in different directions, which may show in the contemporary morphostructural plan, mainly as inversion and partially inherited forms. Out of events of unknown nature

Evaluation of Fourier integral. Spectral analysis of seismic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chitaru, Cristian; Enescu, Dumitru

2003-01-01

Spectral analysis of seismic events represents a method for great earthquake prediction. The seismic signal is not a sinusoidal signal; for this, it is necessary to find a method for best approximation of real signal with a sinusoidal signal. The 'Quanterra' broadband station allows the data access in numerical and/or graphical forms. With the numerical form we can easily make a computer program (MSOFFICE-EXCEL) for spectral analysis. (authors)

A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2007-01-01

A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

Landquake dynamics inferred from seismic source inversion: Greenland and Sichuan events of 2017

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, W. A.

2017-12-01

In June 2017 two catastrophic landquake events occurred in Greenland and Sichuan. The Greenland event leads to tsunami hazard in the small town of Nuugaarsiaq. A landquake in Sichuan hit the town, which resulted in over 100 death. Both two events generated the strong seismic signals recorded by the real-time global seismic network. I adopt an inversion algorithm to derive the landquake force time history (LFH) using the long-period waveforms, and the landslide volume ( 76 million m3) can be rapidly estimated, facilitating the tsunami-wave modeling for early warning purpose. Based on an integrated approach involving tsunami forward simulation and seismic waveform inversion, this study has significant implications to issuing actionable warnings before hazardous tsunami waves strike populated areas. Two single-forces (SFs) mechanism (two block model) yields the best explanation for Sichuan event, which demonstrates that secondary event (seismic inferred volume: 8.2 million m3) may be mobilized by collapse-mass hitting from initial rock avalanches ( 5.8 million m3), likely causing a catastrophic disaster. The later source with a force magnitude of 0.9967×1011 N occurred 70 seconds after first mass-movement occurrence. In contrast, first event has the smaller force magnitude of 0.8116×1011 N. In conclusion, seismically inferred physical parameters will substantially contribute to improving our understanding of landquake source mechanisms and mitigating similar hazards in other parts of the world.

Full-waveform detection of non-impulsive seismic events based on time-reversal methods

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Solano, Ericka Alinne; Hjörleifsdóttir, Vala; Liu, Qinya

2017-12-01

We present a full-waveform detection method for non-impulsive seismic events, based on time-reversal principles. We use the strain Green's tensor as a matched filter, correlating it with continuous observed seismograms, to detect non-impulsive seismic events. We show that this is mathematically equivalent to an adjoint method for detecting earthquakes. We define the detection function, a scalar valued function, which depends on the stacked correlations for a group of stations. Event detections are given by the times at which the amplitude of the detection function exceeds a given value relative to the noise level. The method can make use of the whole seismic waveform or any combination of time-windows with different filters. It is expected to have an advantage compared to traditional detection methods for events that do not produce energetic and impulsive P waves, for example glacial events, landslides, volcanic events and transform-fault earthquakes for events which velocity structure along the path is relatively well known. Furthermore, the method has advantages over empirical Greens functions template matching methods, as it does not depend on records from previously detected events, and therefore is not limited to events occurring in similar regions and with similar focal mechanisms as these events. The method is not specific to any particular way of calculating the synthetic seismograms, and therefore complicated structural models can be used. This is particularly beneficial for intermediate size events that are registered on regional networks, for which the effect of lateral structure on the waveforms can be significant. To demonstrate the feasibility of the method, we apply it to two different areas located along the mid-oceanic ridge system west of Mexico where non-impulsive events have been reported. The first study area is between Clipperton and Siqueiros transform faults (9°N), during the time of two earthquake swarms, occurring in March 2012 and May

Analysis of post-blasting source mechanisms of mining-induced seismic events in Rudna copper mine, Poland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caputa Alicja

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The exploitation of georesources by underground mining can be responsible for seismic activity in areas considered aseismic. Since strong seismic events are connected with rockburst hazard, it is a continuous requirement to reduce seismic risk. One of the most effective methods to do so is blasting in potentially hazardous mining panels. In this way, small to moderate tremors are provoked and stress accumulation is substantially reduced. In this paper we present an analysis of post-blasting events using Full Moment Tensor (MT inversion at the Rudna mine, Poland, underground seismic network. In addition, we describe the problems we faced when analyzing seismic signals. Our studies show that focal mechanisms for events that occurred after blasts exhibit common features in the MT solution. The strong isotropic and small Double Couple (DC component of the MT, indicate that these events were provoked by detonations. On the other hand, post-blasting MT is considerably different than the MT obtained for strong mining events. We believe that seismological analysis of provoked and unprovoked events can be a very useful tool in confirming the effectiveness of blasting in seismic hazard reduction in mining areas.

Seismicity and seismotectonics of the Western Lake Ontario Region -relocation of the seismic events phase III

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohajer, A.A.

1995-12-01

Earthquake hazard analysis in Canada relies mainly on recorded earthquake data. The ability to record earthquakes of a given magnitude has varied considerably over time as has the accuracy of location determinations. Recomputation of earthquake locations has been suggested as a possible means of improving the existing data base for better definition of seismic sources. In this study, the locations of more than 50 small to moderate magnitude earthquakes (M≤5), in the western Lake Ontario region, were examined. Available seismograph records in the Record Centre of the National Archives of Canada were examined for events that occurred prior to 1978. The events recorded after this date showed increasing accuracy in their location determinations due to initiation and improvements of the Eastern Canada Telemetry Network (ECTN). Data compiled from the study are based on the relocated and/or selected events with the minimum travel time residuals at the Canadian and American stations. Except for a few scattered events in the south-central part of the Lake Ontario region, microearthquakes (M<3.5) cluster along or at the intersection of prominent aeromagnetic and gravity anomalies, within the Toronto-Hamilton Seismic Zone. This is indicative of certain seismotectonic relationships in this region. The depth distribution or the better located events show that a range of 5 to 20 km is dominant and, therefore, they are not near-surface stress relief phenomena. However, details of the structural manifestation of inferred seismogenic features need further ground truthing, backed by long term seismic monitoring. (author) 66 refs., 3 tabs., 6 figs

Aftershock Sequences and Seismic-Like Organization of Acoustic Events Produced by a Single Propagating Crack

Science.gov (United States)

Alizee, D.; Bonamy, D.

2017-12-01

In inhomogeneous brittle solids like rocks, concrete or ceramics, one usually distinguish nominally brittle fracture, driven by the propagation of a single crack from quasibrittle one, resulting from the accumulation of many microcracks. The latter goes along with intermittent sharp noise, as e.g. revealed by the acoustic emission observed in lab scale compressive fracture experiments or at geophysical scale in the seismic activity. In both cases, statistical analyses have revealed a complex time-energy organization into aftershock sequences obeying a range of robust empirical scaling laws (the Omori-Utsu, productivity and Bath's law) that help carry out seismic hazard analysis and damage mitigation. These laws are usually conjectured to emerge from the collective dynamics of microcrack nucleation. In the experiments presented at AGU, we will show that such a statistical organization is not specific to the quasi-brittle multicracking situations, but also rules the acoustic events produced by a single crack slowly driven in an artificial rock made of sintered polymer beads. This simpler situation has advantageous properties (statistical stationarity in particular) permitting us to uncover the origins of these seismic laws: Both productivity law and Bath's law result from the scale free statistics for event energy and Omori-Utsu law results from the scale-free statistics of inter-event time. This yields predictions on how the associated parameters are related, which were analytically derived. Surprisingly, the so-obtained relations are also compatible with observations on lab scale compressive fracture experiments, suggesting that, in these complex multicracking situations also, the organization into aftershock sequences and associated seismic laws are also ruled by the propagation of individual microcrack fronts, and not by the collective, stress-mediated, microcrack nucleation. Conversely, the relations are not fulfilled in seismology signals, suggesting that

Broadband analysis of landslides seismic signal : example of the Oso-Steelhead landslide and other recent events

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Hibert, C.; Stark, C. P.; Ekstrom, G.

2014-12-01

Landslide failures on the scale of mountains are spectacular, dangerous, and spontaneous, making direct observations hard to obtain. Measurement of their dynamic properties during runout is a high research priority, but a logistical and technical challenge. Seismology has begun to help in several important ways. Taking advantage of broadband seismic stations, recent advances now allow: (i) the seismic detection and location of large landslides in near-real-time, even for events in very remote areas that may have remain undetected, such as the 2014 Mt La Perouse supraglacial failure in Alaska; (ii) inversion of long-period waves generated by large landslides to yield an estimate of the forces imparted by the bulk accelerating mass; (iii) inference of the landslide mass, its center-of-mass velocity over time, and its trajectory.Key questions persist, such as: What can the short-period seismic data tell us about the high-frequency impacts taking place within the granular flow and along its boundaries with the underlying bedrock? And how does this seismicity relate to the bulk acceleration of the landslide and the long-period seismicity generated by it?Our recent work on the joint analysis of short- and long-period seismic signals generated by past and recent events, such as the Bingham Canyon Mine and the Oso-Steelhead landslides, provides new insights to tackle these issues. Qualitative comparison between short-period signal features and kinematic parameters inferred from long-period surface wave inversion helps to refine interpretation of the source dynamics and to understand the different mechanisms for the origin of the short-period wave radiation. Our new results also suggest that quantitative relationships can be derived from this joint analysis, in particular between the short-period seismic signal envelope and the inferred momentum of the center-of-mass. In the future, these quantitative relationships may help to constrain and calibrate parameters used in

Interpretation of Microseismicity Observed From Surface and Borehole Seismic Arrays During Hydraulic Fracturing in Shale - Bedding Plane Slip Model

Science.gov (United States)

Stanek, F.; Jechumtalova, Z.; Eisner, L.

2017-12-01

We present a geomechanical model explaining microseismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing in shales developed from many datasets acquired with two most common types of seismic monitoring arrays, surface and dual-borehole arrays. The geomechanical model explains the observed source mechanisms and locations of induced events from two stimulated shale reservoirs. We observe shear dip-slip source mechanisms with nodal planes aligned with location trends. We show that such seismicity can be explained as a shearing along bedding planes caused by aseismic opening of vertical hydraulic fractures. The source mechanism inversion was applied only to selected high-quality events with sufficient signal-to-noise ratio. We inverted P- and P- and S-wave arrival amplitudes to full-moment tensor and decomposed it to shear, volumetric and compensated linear vector dipole components. We also tested an effect of noise presented in the data to evaluate reliability of non-shear components. The observed seismicity from both surface and downhole monitoring of shale stimulations is very similar. The locations of induced microseismic events are limited to narrow depth intervals and propagate along distinct trend(s) showing fracture propagation in direction of maximum horizontal stress from injection well(s). The source mechanisms have a small non-shear component which can be partly explained as an effect of noise in the data, i.e. events represent shearing on faults. We observe predominantly dip-slip events with a strike of the steeper (almost vertical) nodal plane parallel to the fracture propagation. Therefore the other possible nodal plane is almost horizontal. The rake angles of the observed mechanisms divide these dip-slips into two groups with opposite polarities. It means that we observe opposite movements on the nearly identically oriented faults. Realizing a typical structural weakness of shale in horizontal planes, we interpret observed microseismicity as a result of shearing

Use of the t-distribution to construct seismic hazard curves for seismic probabilistic safety assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yee, Eric [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Dept. of Nuclear Power Plant Engineering, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2017-03-15

Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered.

Use of the t-distribution to construct seismic hazard curves for seismic probabilistic safety assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yee, Eric

2017-01-01

Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems for semi-automatic discrimination between seismic events: a study in Tehran region

Science.gov (United States)

Vasheghani Farahani, Jamileh; Zare, Mehdi; Lucas, Caro

2012-04-01

Thisarticle presents an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for classification of low magnitude seismic events reported in Iran by the network of Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO). ANFIS classifiers were used to detect seismic events using six inputs that defined the seismic events. Neuro-fuzzy coding was applied using the six extracted features as ANFIS inputs. Two types of events were defined: weak earthquakes and mining blasts. The data comprised 748 events (6289 signals) ranging from magnitude 1.1 to 4.6 recorded at 13 seismic stations between 2004 and 2009. We surveyed that there are almost 223 earthquakes with M ≤ 2.2 included in this database. Data sets from the south, east, and southeast of the city of Tehran were used to evaluate the best short period seismic discriminants, and features as inputs such as origin time of event, distance (source to station), latitude of epicenter, longitude of epicenter, magnitude, and spectral analysis (fc of the Pg wave) were used, increasing the rate of correct classification and decreasing the confusion rate between weak earthquakes and quarry blasts. The performance of the ANFIS model was evaluated for training and classification accuracy. The results confirmed that the proposed ANFIS model has good potential for determining seismic events.

Seismic sequences in the Sombrero Seismic Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Pulliam, J.; Huerfano, V. A.; ten Brink, U.; von Hillebrandt, C.

2007-05-01

The northeastern Caribbean, in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, has a long and well-documented history of devastating earthquakes and tsunamis, including major events in 1670, 1787, 1867, 1916, 1918, and 1943. Recently, seismicity has been concentrated to the north and west of the British Virgin Islands, in the region referred to as the Sombrero Seismic Zone by the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN). In the combined seismicity catalog maintained by the PRSN, several hundred small to moderate magnitude events can be found in this region prior to 2006. However, beginning in 2006 and continuing to the present, the rate of seismicity in the Sombrero suddenly increased, and a new locus of activity developed to the east of the previous location. Accurate estimates of seismic hazard, and the tsunamigenic potential of seismic events, depend on an accurate and comprehensive understanding of how strain is being accommodated in this corner region. Are faults locked and accumulating strain for release in a major event? Or is strain being released via slip over a diffuse system of faults? A careful analysis of seismicity patterns in the Sombrero region has the potential to both identify faults and modes of failure, provided the aggregation scheme is tuned to properly identify related events. To this end, we experimented with a scheme to identify seismic sequences based on physical and temporal proximity, under the assumptions that (a) events occur on related fault systems as stress is refocused by immediately previous events and (b) such 'stress waves' die out with time, so that two events that occur on the same system within a relatively short time window can be said to have a similar 'trigger' in ways that two nearby events that occurred years apart cannot. Patterns that emerge from the identification, temporal sequence, and refined locations of such sequences of events carry information about stress accommodation that is obscured by large clouds of

Method to Calculate Accurate Top Event Probability in a Seismic PSA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jung, Woo Sik [Sejong Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

ACUBE(Advanced Cutset Upper Bound Estimator) calculates the top event probability and importance measures from cutsets by dividing cutsets into major and minor groups depending on the cutset probability, where the cutsets that have higher cutset probability are included in the major group and the others in minor cutsets, converting major cutsets into a Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). By applying the ACUBE algorithm to the seismic PSA cutsets, the accuracy of a top event probability and importance measures can be significantly improved. ACUBE works by dividing the cutsets into two groups (higher and lower cutset probability groups), calculating the top event probability and importance measures in each group, and combining the two results from the two groups. Here, ACUBE calculates the top event probability and importance measures of the higher cutset probability group exactly. On the other hand, ACUBE calculates these measures of the lower cutset probability group with an approximation such as MCUB. The ACUBE algorithm is useful for decreasing the conservatism that is caused by approximating the top event probability and importance measure calculations with given cutsets. By applying the ACUBE algorithm to the seismic PSA cutsets, the accuracy of a top event probability and importance measures can be significantly improved. This study shows that careful attention should be paid and an appropriate method be provided in order to avoid the significant overestimation of the top event probability calculation. Due to the strength of ACUBE that is explained in this study, the ACUBE became a vital tool for calculating more accurate CDF of the seismic PSA cutsets than the conventional probability calculation method.

Robust satellite techniques (RST for the thermal monitoring of earthquake prone areas: the case of Umbria-Marche October, 1997 seismic events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Tramutoli

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Several authors claim a space-time correlation between increases in Earth’s emitted Thermal Infra-Red (TIR radiation and earthquake occurrence. The main problems of such studies regard data analysis and interpretation, which are often done without a validation/confutation control. In this context, a robust data analysis technique (RST, i.e. Robust Satellite Techniques is proposed which permits a statistically based definition of TIR «anomaly » and uses a validation/confutation approach. This technique was already applied to satellite TIR surveys in seismic regions for about twenty earthquakes that occurred in the world. In this work RST is applied for the first time to a time sequence of seismic events. Nine years of Meteosat TIR observations have been analyzed to characterize the unperturbed TIR signal behaviour at specific observation times and locations. The main seismic events of the October 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence have been considered for validation, and relatively unperturbed periods (no earthquakes with Mb ? 4 were taken for confutation purposes. Positive time-space persistent TIR anomalies were observed during seismic periods, generally overlapping the principal tectonic lineaments of the region and sometimes focusing on the vicinity of the epicentre. No similar (in terms of relative intensity and space-time persistence TIR anomalies were detected during seismically unperturbed periods.

Detecting Micro-seismicity and Long-duration Tremor-like Events from the Oklahoma Wavefield Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Li, C.; Li, Z.; Peng, Z.; Zhang, C.; Nakata, N.

2017-12-01

Oklahoma has experienced abrupt increase of induced seismicity in the last decade. An important way to fully understand seismic activities in Oklahoma is to obtain more complete earthquake catalogs and detect different types of seismic events. The IRIS Community Wavefield Demonstration Experiment was deployed near Enid, Oklahoma in Summer of 2016. The dataset from this ultra-dense array provides an excellent opportunity for detecting microseismicity in that region with wavefield approaches. Here we examine continuous waveforms recorded by 3 seismic lines using local coherence for ultra-dense arrays (Li et al., 2017), which is a measure of cross-correlation of waveform at each station with its nearby stations. So far we have detected more than 5,000 events from 06/22/2016 to 07/20/2016, and majority of them are not listed on the regional catalog of Oklahoma or global catalogs, indicating that they are local events. We also identify 15-20 long-period long-duration events, some of them lasting for more than 500 s. Such events have been found at major plate-boundary faults (also known as deep tectonic tremor), as well as during hydraulic fracturing, slow-moving landslides and glaciers. Our next step is to locate these possible tremor-like events with their relative arrival times across the array and compare their occurrence times with solid-earth tides and injection histories to better understand their driving mechanisms.

Adaptive Sensor Tuning for Seismic Event Detection in Environment with Electromagnetic Noise

Science.gov (United States)

Ziegler, Abra E.

The goal of this research is to detect possible microseismic events at a carbon sequestration site. Data recorded on a continuous downhole microseismic array in the Farnsworth Field, an oil field in Northern Texas that hosts an ongoing carbon capture, utilization, and storage project, were evaluated using machine learning and reinforcement learning techniques to determine their effectiveness at seismic event detection on a dataset with electromagnetic noise. The data were recorded from a passive vertical monitoring array consisting of 16 levels of 3-component 15 Hz geophones installed in the field and continuously recording since January 2014. Electromagnetic and other noise recorded on the array has significantly impacted the utility of the data and it was necessary to characterize and filter the noise in order to attempt event detection. Traditional detection methods using short-term average/long-term average (STA/LTA) algorithms were evaluated and determined to be ineffective because of changing noise levels. To improve the performance of event detection and automatically and dynamically detect seismic events using effective data processing parameters, an adaptive sensor tuning (AST) algorithm developed by Sandia National Laboratories was utilized. AST exploits neuro-dynamic programming (reinforcement learning) trained with historic event data to automatically self-tune and determine optimal detection parameter settings. The key metric that guides the AST algorithm is consistency of each sensor with its nearest neighbors: parameters are automatically adjusted on a per station basis to be more or less sensitive to produce consistent agreement of detections in its neighborhood. The effects that changes in neighborhood configuration have on signal detection were explored, as it was determined that neighborhood-based detections significantly reduce the number of both missed and false detections in ground-truthed data. The performance of the AST algorithm was

New Observations of Seismic Group Velocities in the Western Solomon Islands from Cross-Correlation of Ambient Seismic Noise

Science.gov (United States)

Ku, C. S.; You, S. H.; Kuo, Y. T.; Huang, B. S.; Wu, Y. M.; Chen, Y. G.; Taylor, F. W.

2015-12-01

A MW 8.1 earthquake occurred on 1 April 2007 in the western Solomon Islands. Following this event, a damaging tsunami was induced and hit the Island Gizo where the capital city of Western Province of Solomon Islands located. Several buildings of this city were destroyed and several peoples lost their lives during this earthquake. However, during this earthquake, no near source seismic instrument has been installed in this region. The seismic evaluations for the aftershock sequence, the possible earthquake early warning and tsunami warning were unavailable. For the purpose of knowing more detailed information about seismic activity in this region, we have installed 9 seismic stations (with Trillium 120PA broadband seismometer and Q330S 24bit digitizer) around the rupture zone of the 2007 earthquake since September of 2009. Within a decade, it has been demonstrated both theoretically and experimentally that the Green's function or impulse response between two seismic stations can be retrieved from the cross-correlation of ambient noise. In this study, 6 stations' observations which are more complete during 2011/10 ~ 2012/12 period, were selected for the purpose of the cross-correlation analysis of ambient seismic noise. The group velocities at period 2-20 seconds of 15 station-pairs were extracted by using multiple filter technique (MFT) method. The analyzed results of this study presented significant results of group velocities with higher frequency contents than other studies (20-60 seconds in usually cases) and opened new opportunities to study the shallow crustal structure of the western Solomon Islands.

Spatial pattern recognition of seismic events in South West Colombia

Science.gov (United States)

Benítez, Hernán D.; Flórez, Juan F.; Duque, Diana P.; Benavides, Alberto; Lucía Baquero, Olga; Quintero, Jiber

2013-09-01

Recognition of seismogenic zones in geographical regions supports seismic hazard studies. This recognition is usually based on visual, qualitative and subjective analysis of data. Spatial pattern recognition provides a well founded means to obtain relevant information from large amounts of data. The purpose of this work is to identify and classify spatial patterns in instrumental data of the South West Colombian seismic database. In this research, clustering tendency analysis validates whether seismic database possesses a clustering structure. A non-supervised fuzzy clustering algorithm creates groups of seismic events. Given the sensitivity of fuzzy clustering algorithms to centroid initial positions, we proposed a methodology to initialize centroids that generates stable partitions with respect to centroid initialization. As a result of this work, a public software tool provides the user with the routines developed for clustering methodology. The analysis of the seismogenic zones obtained reveals meaningful spatial patterns in South-West Colombia. The clustering analysis provides a quantitative location and dispersion of seismogenic zones that facilitates seismological interpretations of seismic activities in South West Colombia.

Location of long-period events below Kilauea Volcano using seismic amplitudes and accurate relative relocation

Science.gov (United States)

Battaglia, J.; Got, J.-L.; Okubo, P.

2003-01-01

We present methods for improving the location of long-period (LP) events, deep and shallow, recorded below Kilauea Volcano by the permanent seismic network. LP events might be of particular interest to understanding eruptive processes as their source mechanism is assumed to directly involve fluid transport. However, it is usually difficult or impossible to locate their source using traditional arrival time methods because of emergent wave arrivals. At Kilauea, similar LP waveform signatures suggest the existence of LP multiplets. The waveform similarity suggests spatially close sources, while catalog solutions using arrival time estimates are widely scattered beneath Kilauea's summit caldera. In order to improve estimates of absolute LP location, we use the distribution of seismic amplitudes corrected for station site effects. The decay of the amplitude as a function of hypocentral distance is used for inferring LP location. In a second stage, we use the similarity of the events to calculate their relative positions. The analysis of the entire LP seismicity recorded between January 1997 and December 1999 suggests that a very large part of the LP event population, both deep and shallow, is generated by a small number of compact sources. Deep events are systematically composed of a weak high-frequency onset followed by a low-frequency wave train. Aligning the low-frequency wave trains does not lead to aligning the onsets indicating the two parts of the signal are dissociated. This observation favors an interpretation in terms of triggering and resonance of a magmatic conduit. Instead of defining fault planes, the precise relocation of similar LP events, based on the alignment of the high-energy low-frequency wave trains, defines limited size volumes. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Seismically observed seiching in the Panama Canal

Science.gov (United States)

McNamara, D.E.; Ringler, A.T.; Hutt, C.R.; Gee, L.S.

2011-01-01

A large portion of the seismic noise spectrum is dominated by water wave energy coupled into the solid Earth. Distinct mechanisms of water wave induced ground motions are distinguished by their spectral content. For example, cultural noise is generally Panama Canal there is an additional source of long-period noise generated by standing water waves, seiches, induced by disturbances such as passing ships and wind pressure. We compare seismic waveforms to water level records and relate these observations to changes in local tilt and gravity due to an oscillating seiche. The methods and observations discussed in this paper provide a first step toward quantifying the impact of water inundation as recorded by seismometers. This type of quantified understanding of water inundation will help in future estimates of similar phenomena such as the seismic observations of tsunami impact. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Estimation of Source and Attenuation Parameters from Ground Motion Observations for Induced Seismicity in Alberta

Science.gov (United States)

Novakovic, M.; Atkinson, G. M.

2015-12-01

We use a generalized inversion to solve for site response, regional source and attenuation parameters, in order to define a region-specific ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) from ground motion observations in Alberta, following the method of Atkinson et al. (2015 BSSA). The database is compiled from over 200 small to moderate seismic events (M 1 to 4.2) recorded at ~50 regional stations (distances from 30 to 500 km), over the last few years; almost all of the events have been identified as being induced by oil and gas activity. We remove magnitude scaling and geometric spreading functions from observed ground motions and invert for stress parameter, regional attenuation and site amplification. Resolving these parameters allows for the derivation of a regionally-calibrated GMPE that can be used to accurately predict amplitudes across the region in real time, which is useful for ground-motion-based alerting systems and traffic light protocols. The derived GMPE has further applications for the evaluation of hazards from induced seismicity.

Monitoring of seismic events from a specific source region using a single regional array: A case study

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbons, S. J.; Kværna, T.; Ringdal, F.

2005-07-01

In the monitoring of earthquakes and nuclear explosions using a sparse worldwide network of seismic stations, it is frequently necessary to make reliable location estimates using a single seismic array. It is also desirable to screen out routine industrial explosions automatically in order that analyst resources are not wasted upon detections which can, with a high level of confidence, be associated with such a source. The Kovdor mine on the Kola Peninsula of NW Russia is the site of frequent industrial blasts which are well recorded by the ARCES regional seismic array at a distance of approximately 300 km. We describe here an automatic procedure for identifying signals which are likely to result from blasts at the Kovdor mine and, wherever possible, for obtaining single array locations for such events. Carefully calibrated processing parameters were chosen using measurements from confirmed events at the mine over a one-year period for which the operators supplied Ground Truth information. Phase arrival times are estimated using an autoregressive method and slowness and azimuth are estimated using broadband f{-} k analysis in fixed frequency bands and time-windows fixed relative to the initial P-onset time. We demonstrate the improvement to slowness estimates resulting from the use of fixed frequency bands. Events can be located using a single array if, in addition to the P-phase, at least one secondary phase is found with both an acceptable slowness estimate and valid onset-time estimate. We evaluate the on-line system over a twelve month period; every event known to have occured at the mine is detected by the process and 32 out of 53 confirmed events were located automatically. The remaining events were classified as “very likely” Kovdor events and were subsequently located by an analyst. The false alarm rate is low; only 84 very likely Kovdor events were identified during the whole of 2003 and none of these were subsequently located at a large distance from

Reservoir Changes Derived from Seismic Observations at The Geysers Geothermal Field, CA, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Gritto, R.; Jarpre, S.

2012-04-01

Induced seismicity associated with the exploitation of geothermal fields is used as a tool to characterize and delineate changes associated with injection and production of fluids from the reservoir. At the same time public concern of felt seismicity has led to objections against the operation of geothermal reservoirs in close proximity to population centers. Production at the EGS sites in Basel (Switzerland) was stopped after renewed seismicity caused concern and objection from the public in the city. Operations in other geothermal reservoirs had to be scaled back or interrupted due to an unexpected increase in seismicity (Soultz-sous-forêt, France, Berlín, El Salvador). As a consequence of these concerns and in order to optimize the use of induced seismicity for reservoir engineering purposes, it becomes imperative to understand the relationship between seismic events and stress changes in the reservoir. We will address seismicity trends at The Geysers Geothermal Reservoir, CA USA, to understand the role of historical seismicity associated with past injection of water and/or production of steam. Our analysis makes use of a comprehensive database of earthquakes and associated phase arrivals from 2004 to 2011. A high-precision sub-set of the earthquake data was selected to analyze temporal changes in seismic velocities and Vp/Vs-ratio throughout the whole reservoir. We find relatively low Vp/Vs values in 2004 suggestive of a vapor dominated reservoir. With passing time, however, the observed temporal increase in Vp/Vs, coupled with a decrease in P- and S-wave velocities suggests the presence of fluid-filled fractured rock. Considering the start of a continuous water injection project in 2004, it can be concluded that the fluid saturation of the reservoir has successfully recovered. Preliminary results of 3-D velocity inversions of seismic data appear to corroborate earlier findings that the lowest Vp/Vs estimates are observed in the center of the reservoir

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugino, Hideharu; Sakagami, Masaharu; Ebisawa, Katsumi; Korenaga, Mariko

2011-01-01

In the area in front of Nankai trough, tsunami wave height may increase if tsunamis attacking from some wave sources overlap because of time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough. To evaluation tsunami risk of the important facilities located in front of Nankai trough, we proposed the probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering uncertainty on time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough and we evaluated the influence that the time-lag gave to tsunami hazard at the some representative points. (author)

Causality between expansion of seismic cloud and maximum magnitude of induced seismicity in geothermal field

Science.gov (United States)

Mukuhira, Yusuke; Asanuma, Hiroshi; Ito, Takatoshi; Häring, Markus

2016-04-01

Occurrence of induced seismicity with large magnitude is critical environmental issues associated with fluid injection for shale gas/oil extraction, waste water disposal, carbon capture and storage, and engineered geothermal systems (EGS). Studies for prediction of the hazardous seismicity and risk assessment of induced seismicity has been activated recently. Many of these studies are based on the seismological statistics and these models use the information of the occurrence time and event magnitude. We have originally developed physics based model named "possible seismic moment model" to evaluate seismic activity and assess seismic moment which can be ready to release. This model is totally based on microseismic information of occurrence time, hypocenter location and magnitude (seismic moment). This model assumes existence of representative parameter having physical meaning that release-able seismic moment per rock volume (seismic moment density) at given field. Seismic moment density is to be estimated from microseismic distribution and their seismic moment. In addition to this, stimulated rock volume is also inferred by progress of microseismic cloud at given time and this quantity can be interpreted as the rock volume which can release seismic energy due to weakening effect of normal stress by injected fluid. Product of these two parameters (equation (1)) provide possible seismic moment which can be released from current stimulated zone as a model output. Difference between output of this model and observed cumulative seismic moment corresponds the seismic moment which will be released in future, based on current stimulation conditions. This value can be translated into possible maximum magnitude of induced seismicity in future. As this way, possible seismic moment can be used to have feedback to hydraulic stimulation operation in real time as an index which can be interpreted easily and intuitively. Possible seismic moment is defined as equation (1), where D

Geomechanical Modeling of Fault Responses and the Potential for Notable Seismic Events during Underground CO2 Injection

Science.gov (United States)

Rutqvist, J.; Cappa, F.; Mazzoldi, A.; Rinaldi, A.

2012-12-01

The importance of geomechanics associated with large-scale geologic carbon storage (GCS) operations is now widely recognized. There are concerns related to the potential for triggering notable (felt) seismic events and how such events could impact the long-term integrity of a CO2 repository (as well as how it could impact the public perception of GCS). In this context, we review a number of modeling studies and field observations related to the potential for injection-induced fault reactivations and seismic events. We present recent model simulations of CO2 injection and fault reactivation, including both aseismic and seismic fault responses. The model simulations were conducted using a slip weakening fault model enabling sudden (seismic) fault rupture, and some of the numerical analyses were extended to fully dynamic modeling of seismic source, wave propagation, and ground motion. The model simulations illustrated what it will take to create a magnitude 3 or 4 earthquake that would not result in any significant damage at the groundsurface, but could raise concerns in the local community and could also affect the deep containment of the stored CO2. The analyses show that the local in situ stress field, fault orientation, fault strength, and injection induced overpressure are critical factors in determining the likelihood and magnitude of such an event. We like to clarify though that in our modeling we had to apply very high injection pressure to be able to intentionally induce any fault reactivation. Consequently, our model simulations represent extreme cases, which in a real GCS operation could be avoided by estimating maximum sustainable injection pressure and carefully controlling the injection pressure. In fact, no notable seismic event has been reported from any of the current CO2 storage projects, although some unfelt microseismic activities have been detected by geophones. On the other hand, potential future commercial GCS operations from large power plants

Depth Discrimination Using Rg-to-Sg Spectral Amplitude Ratios for Seismic Events in Utah Recorded at Local Distances

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tibi, Rigobert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Koper, Keith D. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics; Pankow, Kristine L. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics; Young, Christopher J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2018-03-20

Short-period fundamental-mode Rayleigh waves (Rg) are commonly observed on seismograms of anthropogenic seismic events and shallow, naturally occurring tectonic earthquakes (TEs) recorded at local distances. In the Utah region, strong Rg waves traveling with an average group velocity of about 1.8 km/s are observed at ~1 Hz on waveforms from shallow events ( depth<10 km ) recorded at distances up to about 150 km. At these distances, Sg waves, which are direct shear waves traveling in the upper crust, are generally the dominant signals for TEs. Here in this study, we leverage the well-known notion that Rg amplitude decreases dramatically with increasing event depth to propose a new depth discriminant based on Rg-to-Sg spectral amplitude ratios. The approach is successfully used to discriminate shallow events (both earthquakes and anthropogenic events) from deeper TEs in the Utah region recorded at local distances ( <150 km ) by the University of Utah Seismographic Stations (UUSS) regional seismic network. Using Mood’s median test, we obtained probabilities of nearly zero that the median Rg-to-Sg spectral amplitude ratios are the same between shallow events on the one hand (including both shallow TEs and anthropogenic events), and deeper earthquakes on the other, suggesting that there is a statistically significant difference in the estimated Rg-to-Sg ratios between the two populations. We also observed consistent disparities between the different types of shallow events (e.g., mining blasts vs. mining-induced earthquakes), implying that it may be possible to separate the subpopulations that make up this group. Lastly, this suggests that using local distance Rg-to-Sg spectral amplitude ratios one can not only discriminate shallow events from deeper events but may also be able to discriminate among different populations of shallow events.

Shallow degassing events as a trigger for very-long-period seismicity at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

Science.gov (United States)

Patrick, Matthew; Wilson, David; Fee, David; Orr, Tim R.; Swanson, Donald A.

2011-01-01

The first eruptive activity at Kīlauea Volcano’s summit in 25 years began in March 2008 with the opening of a 35-m-wide vent in Halema‘uma‘u crater. The new activity has produced prominent very-long-period (VLP) signals corresponding with two new behaviors: episodic tremor bursts and small explosive events, both of which represent degassing events from the top of the lava column. Previous work has shown that VLP seismicity has long been present at Kīlauea’s summit, and is sourced approximately 1 km below Halema‘uma‘u. By integrating video observations, infrasound and seismic data, we show that the onset of the large VLP signals occurs within several seconds of the onset of the degassing events. This timing indicates that the VLP is caused by forces—sourced at or very near the lava free surface due to degassing—transmitted down the magma column and coupling to the surrounding rock at 1 km depth.

Relationship between eruption plume heights and seismic source amplitudes of eruption tremors and explosion events

Science.gov (United States)

Mori, A.; Kumagai, H.

2016-12-01

It is crucial to analyze and interpret eruption tremors and explosion events for estimating eruption size and understanding eruption phenomena. Kumagai et al. (EPS, 2015) estimated the seismic source amplitudes (As) and cumulative source amplitudes (Is) for eruption tremors and explosion events at Tungurahua, Ecuador, by the amplitude source location (ASL) method based on the assumption of isotropic S-wave radiation in a high-frequency band (5-10 Hz). They found scaling relations between As and Is for eruption tremors and explosion events. However, the universality of these relations is yet to be verified, and the physical meanings of As and Is are not clear. In this study, we analyzed the relations between As and Is for eruption tremors and explosion events at active volcanoes in Japan, and estimated As and Is by the ASL method. We obtained power-law relations between As and Is, in which the powers were different between eruption tremors and explosion events. These relations were consistent with the scaling relations at Tungurahua volcano. Then, we compared As with maximum eruption plume heights (H) during eruption tremors analyzed in this study, and found that H was proportional to 0.21 power of As. This relation is similar to the plume height model based on the physical process of plume rise, which indicates that H is proportional to 0.25 power of volumetric flow rate for plinian eruptions. This suggests that As may correspond to volumetric flow rate. If we assume a seismic source with volume changes and far-field S-wave, As is proportional to the source volume rate. This proportional relation and the plume height model give rise to the relation that H is proportional to 0.25 power of As. These results suggest that we may be able to estimate plume heights in realtime by estimating As during eruptions from seismic observations.

Micromechanics and statistics of slipping events in a granular seismic fault model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arcangelis, L de [Department of Information Engineering and CNISM, Second University of Naples, Aversa (Italy); Ciamarra, M Pica [CNR-SPIN, Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Universita di Napoli Federico II (Italy); Lippiello, E; Godano, C, E-mail: dearcangelis@na.infn.it [Department of Environmental Sciences and CNISM, Second University of Naples, Caserta (Italy)

2011-09-15

The stick-slip is investigated in a seismic fault model made of a confined granular system under shear stress via three dimensional Molecular Dynamics simulations. We study the statistics of slipping events and, in particular, the dependence of the distribution on model parameters. The distribution consistently exhibits two regimes: an initial power law and a bump at large slips. The initial power law decay is in agreement with the the Gutenberg-Richter law characterizing real seismic occurrence. The exponent of the initial regime is quite independent of model parameters and its value is in agreement with experimental results. Conversely, the position of the bump is solely controlled by the ratio of the drive elastic constant and the system size. Large slips also become less probable in absence of fault gouge and tend to disappear for stiff drives. A two-time force-force correlation function, and a susceptibility related to the system response to pressure changes, characterize the micromechanics of slipping events. The correlation function unveils the micromechanical changes occurring both during microslips and slips. The mechanical susceptibility encodes the magnitude of the incoming microslip. Numerical results for the cellular-automaton version of the spring block model confirm the parameter dependence observed for size distribution in the granular model.

Burar seismic station: evaluation of seismic performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghica, Daniela; Popa, Mihaela

2005-01-01

A new seismic monitoring system, the Bucovina Seismic Array (BURAR), has been established since July 2002, in the Northern part of Romania, in a joint effort of the Air Force Technical Applications Center, USA, and the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP), Romania. The small-aperture array consists of 10 seismic sensors (9 vertical short-period and one three-component broad band) located in boreholes and distributed in a 5 x 5 km 2 area. At present, the seismic data are continuously recorded by the BURAR and transmitted in real-time to the Romanian National Data Center in Bucharest and National Data Center of the USA, in Florida. Based on the BURAR seismic information gathered at the National Data Center, NIEP (ROM N DC), in the August 2002 - December 2004 time interval, analysis and statistical assessments were performed. Following the preliminary processing of the data, several observations on the global performance of the BURAR system were emphasized. Data investigation showed an excellent efficiency of the BURAR system particularly in detecting teleseismic and regional events. Also, a statistical analysis for the BURAR detection capability of the local Vrancea events was performed in terms of depth and magnitude for the year 2004. The high signal detection capability of the BURAR resulted, generally, in improving the location solutions for the Vrancea seismic events. The location solution accuracy is enhanced when adding BURAR recordings, especially in the case of low magnitude events (recorded by few stations). The location accuracy is increased, both in terms of constraining hypocenter depth and epicentral coordinates. Our analysis certifies the importance of the BURAR system in NIEP efforts to elaborate seismic bulletins. Furthermore, the specific procedures for array data processing (beam forming, f-k analysis) increase significantly the signal-to-noise ratio by summing up the coherent signals from the array components, and ensure a better accuracy

Recent Progress of Seismic Observation Networks in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Okada, Y.

2013-04-01

Before the occurrence of disastrous Kobe earthquake in 1995, the number of high sensitivity seismograph stations operated in Japan was nearly 550 and was concentrated in the Kanto and Tokai districts, central Japan. In the wake of the Kobe earthquake, Japanese government has newly established the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion and started the reconstruction of seismic networks to evenly cover the whole Japan. The basic network is composed of three seismographs, i.e. high sensitivity seismograph (Hi-net), broadband seismograph (F-net), and strong motion seismograph (K-NET). A large majority of Hi-net stations are also equipped with a pair of strong motion sensors at the bottom of borehole and the ground surface (KiK-net). A plenty of high quality data obtained from these networks are circulated at once and is producing several new seismological findings as well as providing the basis for the Earthquake Early Warning system. In March 11, 2011, "Off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake" was generated with magnitude 9.0, which records the largest in the history of seismic observation in Japan. The greatest disaster on record was brought by huge tsunami with nearly 20 thousand killed or missing people. We are again noticed that seismic observation system is quite poor in the oceanic region compared to the richness of it in the inland region. In 2012, NIED has started the construction of ocean bottom seismic and tsunami observation network along the Japan Trench. It is planned to layout 154 stations with an average spacing of 30km, each of which is equipped with an accelerometer for seismic observation and a water pressure gauge for tsunami observation. We are expecting that more rapid and accurate warning of earthquake and tsunami becomes possible by this observing network.

Recent Progress of Seismic Observation Networks in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okada, Y

2013-01-01

Before the occurrence of disastrous Kobe earthquake in 1995, the number of high sensitivity seismograph stations operated in Japan was nearly 550 and was concentrated in the Kanto and Tokai districts, central Japan. In the wake of the Kobe earthquake, Japanese government has newly established the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion and started the reconstruction of seismic networks to evenly cover the whole Japan. The basic network is composed of three seismographs, i.e. high sensitivity seismograph (Hi-net), broadband seismograph (F-net), and strong motion seismograph (K-NET). A large majority of Hi-net stations are also equipped with a pair of strong motion sensors at the bottom of borehole and the ground surface (KiK-net). A plenty of high quality data obtained from these networks are circulated at once and is producing several new seismological findings as well as providing the basis for the Earthquake Early Warning system. In March 11, 2011, 'Off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake' was generated with magnitude 9.0, which records the largest in the history of seismic observation in Japan. The greatest disaster on record was brought by huge tsunami with nearly 20 thousand killed or missing people. We are again noticed that seismic observation system is quite poor in the oceanic region compared to the richness of it in the inland region. In 2012, NIED has started the construction of ocean bottom seismic and tsunami observation network along the Japan Trench. It is planned to layout 154 stations with an average spacing of 30km, each of which is equipped with an accelerometer for seismic observation and a water pressure gauge for tsunami observation. We are expecting that more rapid and accurate warning of earthquake and tsunami becomes possible by this observing network.

Analysis of induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs – An overview

Science.gov (United States)

Zang, Arno; Oye, Volker; Jousset, Philippe; Deichmann, Nicholas; Gritto, Roland; McGarr, Arthur F.; Majer, Ernest; Bruhn, David

2014-01-01

In this overview we report results of analysing induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs in various tectonic settings within the framework of the European Geothermal Engineering Integrating Mitigation of Induced Seismicity in Reservoirs (GEISER) project. In the reconnaissance phase of a field, the subsurface fault mapping, in situ stress and the seismic network are of primary interest in order to help assess the geothermal resource. The hypocentres of the observed seismic events (seismic cloud) are dependent on the design of the installed network, the used velocity model and the applied location technique. During the stimulation phase, the attention is turned to reservoir hydraulics (e.g., fluid pressure, injection volume) and its relation to larger magnitude seismic events, their source characteristics and occurrence in space and time. A change in isotropic components of the full waveform moment tensor is observed for events close to the injection well (tensile character) as compared to events further away from the injection well (shear character). Tensile events coincide with high Gutenberg-Richter b-values and low Brune stress drop values. The stress regime in the reservoir controls the direction of the fracture growth at depth, as indicated by the extent of the seismic cloud detected. Stress magnitudes are important in multiple stimulation of wells, where little or no seismicity is observed until the previous maximum stress level is exceeded (Kaiser Effect). Prior to drilling, obtaining a 3D P-wave (Vp) and S-wave velocity (Vs) model down to reservoir depth is recommended. In the stimulation phase, we recommend to monitor and to locate seismicity with high precision (decametre) in real-time and to perform local 4D tomography for velocity ratio (Vp/Vs). During exploitation, one should use observed and model induced seismicity to forward estimate seismic hazard so that field operators are in a position to adjust well hydraulics (rate and volume of the

Geological evidence of pre-2012 Emilia, Italy, seismic events

Science.gov (United States)

Caputo, Riccardo; Minarelli, Luca; Papathanassiou, Giorgos; Poli, Eliana M.; Rapti-Caputo, Dimitra; Sboras, Sotiris; Stefani, Marco; Zanferrari, Adriano

2013-04-01

In May 2012, two moderate (ML = 5.9 and 5.8) earthquakes, associated with a noticeable aftershock sequence, affected the eastern sector of the Po Plain, Italy. The causative faults are two segments of the Ferrara Arc thrust system representing the most frontal portion of the buried Northern Apennines fold-and-thrust belt. Few weeks after the earthquake, a palaeoseismological trench was excavated south of the San Carlo village (western Ferrara Province), where a system of aligned ground ruptures were observed. In the trench walls we observed several features documenting the occurrence of past liquefaction events affecting the same site. For example, i) 10 cm-thick dikes filled with injected sand and associated with vertical displacements have no correspondence with the fractures mapped at the surface before the excavation; ii) some thick dikes are arrested below the ploughed level or even by older sedimentary layers; iii) along the internal slope of the palaeo-channel exposed by the trench, load structures and slided blocks are observed; iv) in correspondence with the ground fractures characterised by vertical displacement and opening occurred during the 2012 earthquake and thick dikes, observed at the surface and in the trench's walls, respectively, sand and water ejection did not occur. In conclusion, the results of the palaeoseismological investigation document for the first time that shacking (i.e. seismic) events occurred in the past producing a sufficient ground motion capable of triggering liquefaction phenomena prior to, but likely stronger than, the May 2012 earthquake. A likely candidate is the November 17, 1570 Ferrara earthquake.

Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of M S: m b Seismic Event Screening Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, D. N.; Patton, H. J.; Taylor, S. R.; Bonner, J. L.; Selby, N. D.

2014-03-01

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently in a ratification phase. Under the CTBT, an International Monitoring System (IMS) of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors is operational, and the data from the IMS is analysed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). The established magnitude used for event size is the body-wave magnitude (denoted m b) computed from the initial segment of a seismic waveform. IDC screening analysis is applied to events with m b greater than 3.5. The Rayleigh wave magnitude (denoted M S) is a measure of later arriving surface wave energy. Magnitudes are measurements of seismic energy that include adjustments (physical correction model) for path and distance effects between event and station. Relative to m b, earthquakes generally have a larger M S magnitude than explosions. This article proposes a hypothesis test (screening analysis) using M S and m b that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics.

Seismic moment tensor resolution on a local scale: Simulated rockburst and mine-induced seismic events in the Kopanang gold mine, South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Sileny, J

2006-08-01

Full Text Available of regional events in the western Mediterranean are summarized by STICH et al. (2003). The moderate regional events around Japan are documented in the NIED catalogue by KUBO et al. (2002). Several case studies were performed to invert short- period records... and Metallurgy 101, 223? 234. Vol. 163, 2006 Seismic Moment Tensor Resolution on a Local Scale 1511 KRAVANJA, S., PANZA, G.F., and S? I? LENY? , J. (1999), Robust retrieval of a seismic point-source time function, Geophys. J. Int. 136, 385?394. KUBO, A., FUKUYAMA...

A new event detector designed for the Seismic Research Observatories

Science.gov (United States)

Murdock, James N.; Hutt, Charles R.

1983-01-01

A new short-period event detector has been implemented on the Seismic Research Observatories. For each signal detected, a printed output gives estimates of the time of onset of the signal, direction of the first break, quality of onset, period and maximum amplitude of the signal, and an estimate of the variability of the background noise. On the SRO system, the new algorithm runs ~2.5x faster than the former (power level) detector. This increase in speed is due to the design of the algorithm: all operations can be performed by simple shifts, additions, and comparisons (floating point operations are not required). Even though a narrow-band recursive filter is not used, the algorithm appears to detect events competitively with those algorithms that employ such filters. Tests at Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory on data supplied by Blandford suggest performance commensurate with the on-line detector of the Seismic Data Analysis Center, Alexandria, Virginia.

Changes in water table elevation at Yucca Mountain in response to seismic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnold, B.W.

1996-01-01

Investigation of mechanisms which could significantly alter the elevation of the water table at Yucca Mountain are motivated by the potential impacts such an occurrence would have on the performance of a high-level radioactive waste repository. In particular, we would like to evaluate the possibility of flooding a repository by water-table excursions. Changes in the water table could occur as relatively transient phenomena in response to seismic events by the seismic pumping mechanism. Quantitative evaluation of possible fluctuations of groundwater following earthquakes was undertaken in support of performance assessment calculations including seismicity

Virtual Seismic Observation (VSO) with Sparsity-Promotion Inversion

Science.gov (United States)

Tiezhao, B.; Ning, J.; Jianwei, M.

2017-12-01

Large station interval leads to low resolution images, sometimes prevents people from obtaining images in concerned regions. Sparsity-promotion inversion, a useful method to recover missing data in industrial field acquisition, can be lent to interpolate seismic data on none-sampled sites, forming Virtual Seismic Observation (VSO). Traditional sparsity-promotion inversion suffers when coming up with large time difference in adjacent sites, which we concern most and use shift method to improve it. The procedure of the interpolation is that we first employ low-pass filter to get long wavelength waveform data and shift the waveforms of the same wave in different seismograms to nearly same arrival time. Then we use wavelet-transform-based sparsity-promotion inversion to interpolate waveform data on none-sampled sites and filling a phase in each missing trace. Finally, we shift back the waveforms to their original arrival times. We call our method FSIS (Filtering, Shift, Interpolation, Shift) interpolation. By this way, we can insert different virtually observed seismic phases into none-sampled sites and get dense seismic observation data. For testing our method, we randomly hide the real data in a site and use the rest to interpolate the observation on that site, using direct interpolation or FSIS method. Compared with directly interpolated data, interpolated data with FSIS can keep amplitude better. Results also show that the arrival times and waveforms of those VSOs well express the real data, which convince us that our method to form VSOs are applicable. In this way, we can provide needed data for some advanced seismic technique like RTM to illuminate shallow structures.

Fluid injection and induced seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Kendall, Michael; Verdon, James

2016-04-01

The link between fluid injection, or extraction, and induced seismicity has been observed in reservoirs for many decades. In fact spatial mapping of low magnitude events is routinely used to estimate a stimulated reservoir volume. However, the link between subsurface fluid injection and larger felt seismicity is less clear and has attracted recent interest with a dramatic increase in earthquakes associated with the disposal of oilfield waste fluids. In a few cases, hydraulic fracturing has also been linked to induced seismicity. Much can be learned from past case-studies of induced seismicity so that we can better understand the risks posed. Here we examine 12 case examples and consider in particular controls on maximum event size, lateral event distributions, and event depths. Our results suggest that injection volume is a better control on maximum magnitude than past, natural seismicity in a region. This might, however, simply reflect the lack of baseline monitoring and/or long-term seismic records in certain regions. To address this in the UK, the British Geological Survey is leading the deployment of monitoring arrays in prospective shale gas areas in Lancashire and Yorkshire. In most cases, seismicity is generally located in close vicinity to the injection site. However, in some cases, the nearest events are up to 5km from the injection point. This gives an indication of the minimum radius of influence of such fluid injection projects. The most distant events are never more than 20km from the injection point, perhaps implying a maximum radius of influence. Some events are located in the target reservoir, but most occur below the injection depth. In fact, most events lie in the crystalline basement underlying the sedimentary rocks. This suggests that induced seismicity may not pose a leakage risk for fluid migration back to the surface, as it does not impact caprock integrity. A useful application for microseismic data is to try and forecast induced seismicity

Improvements in seismic event locations in a deep western U.S. coal mine using tomographic velocity models and an evolutionary search algorithm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adam Lurka; Peter Swanson [Central Mining Institute, Katowice (Poland)

2009-09-15

Methods of improving seismic event locations were investigated as part of a research study aimed at reducing ground control safety hazards. Seismic event waveforms collected with a 23-station three-dimensional sensor array during longwall coal mining provide the data set used in the analyses. A spatially variable seismic velocity model is constructed using seismic event sources in a passive tomographic method. The resulting three-dimensional velocity model is used to relocate seismic event positions. An evolutionary optimization algorithm is implemented and used in both the velocity model development and in seeking improved event location solutions. Results obtained using the different velocity models are compared. The combination of the tomographic velocity model development and evolutionary search algorithm provides improvement to the event locations. 13 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

GPS observations of coseismic deformation following the May 20 and 29, 2012, Emilia seismic events (northern Italy: data, analysis and preliminary models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrico Serpelloni

2012-10-01

Full Text Available In May-July 2012, a seismic sequence struck a broad area of the Po Plain Region in northern Italy. The sequence included two Ml >5.5 mainshocks. The first one (Ml 5.9 occurred near the city of Finale Emilia (ca. 30 km west of Ferrara on May 20 at 02:03:53 (UTC, and the second (Ml 5.8 occurred on May 29 at 7:00:03 (UTC, about 12 km southwest of the May 20 mainshock (Figure 1, near the city of Mirandola. The seismic sequence involved an area that extended in an E-W direction for more than 50 km, and included seven Ml ≥5.0 events and more than 2,300 Ml >1.5 events (http://iside.rm.ingv.it. The focal mechanisms of the main events [Pondrelli et al. 2012, Scognamiglio et al. 2012, this volume] consistently showed compressional kinematics with E-W oriented reverse nodal planes. This sector of the Po Plain is known as a region characterized by slow deformation rates due to the northwards motion of the northern Apennines fold-and-thrust belt, which is buried beneath the sedimentary cover of the Po Plain [Picotti and Pazzaglia 2008, Toscani et al. 2009]. Early global positioning system (GPS measurements [Serpelloni et al. 2006] and the most recent updates [Devoti et al. 2011, Bennett et al. 2012] recognized that less than 2 mm/yr of SW-NE shortening are accommodated across this sector of the Po Plain, in agreement with other present-day stress indicators [Montone et al. 2012] and known active faults [Basili et al. 2008]. In the present study, we describe the GPS data used to study the coseismic deformation related to the May 20 and 29 mainshocks, and provide preliminary models of the two seismic sources, as inverted from consensus GPS coseismic deformation fields. […

Co-Seismic Effect of the 2011 Japan Earthquake on the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shaomin Yang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Great earthquakes introduce measurable co-seismic displacements over regions of hundreds and thousands of kilometers in width, which, if not accounted for, may significantly bias the long-term surface velocity field constrained by GPS observations performed during a period encompassing that event. Here, we first present an estimation of the far-field co-seismic off-sets associated with the 2011 Japan Mw 9.0 earthquake using GPS measurements from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC in North China. The uncertainties of co-seismic off-set, either at cGPS stations or at campaign sites, are better than 5 - 6 mm on average. We compare three methods to constrain the co-seismic off-sets at the campaign sites in northeastern China 1 interpolating cGPS coseismic offsets, 2 estimating in terms of sparsely sampled time-series, and 3 predicting by using a well-constrained slip model. We show that the interpolation of cGPS co-seismic off-sets onto the campaign sites yield the best co-seismic off-set solution for these sites. The source model gives a consistent prediction based on finite dislocation in a layered spherical Earth, which agrees with the best prediction with discrepancies of 2 - 10 mm for 32 campaign sites. Thus, the co-seismic off-set model prediction is still a reasonable choice if a good coverage cGPS network is not available for a very active region like the Tibetan Plateau in which numerous campaign GPS sites were displaced by the recent large earthquakes.

Containment performance evaluation for the GESSAR-II plant for seismic initiating events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shiu, K.K.; Chu, T.; Ludewig, H.; Pratt, W.T.

1986-01-01

As a part of the overall effort undertaken by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to review the GESSAR-II probabilistic risk assessment, an independent containment performance evaluation was performed using the containment event tree approach. This evaluation focused principally on those accident sequences which are initiated by seismic events. This paper reports the findings of this study. 1 ref

Two long-term slow slip events around Tokyo Bay found by GNSS observation during 1996-2011

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, Yoshiyuki; Yabe, Suguru

2017-03-01

Slow slip events (SSEs) with durations ranging from days to more than a decade have been observed in plate subduction zones around the world. In the Kanto district in Japan, several SSEs have been identified based on geodetic observations. However, none of these events have had durations largely exceeding a year. In this study, we show that long-term SSEs with durations longer than 3 years occurred before the year 2000 and after 2007 on the upper interface of the Philippine Sea Plate at depths of 30-40 km. The fault model determined by inversion of global navigation satellite system data is located northeast of Tokyo Bay, where a seismic gap and low seismic wave velocities were detected by seismological observations. Moreover, the acceleration periods of the fault slip corresponded well with increases in the background seismicity for shallower earthquakes. The slip history was also temporally correlated with the long-term shear stress changes governed mainly by non-tidal variations in the ocean bottom pressure. However, the predicted slip from the long-term stress change was too small to reproduce the observed slow slips. To prove the causal relationship between the SSEs and the external stress change, more advanced modeling is necessary to confirm whether such a small slip can trigger an SSE.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Variation of radon levels in spring water with meteorological parameters and seismic events in Garhwal Himalayas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prasad, Yogesh; Prasad, Ganesh; Negi, M.S.; Ramola, R.C.; Choubey, V.M.

2006-01-01

Radon is being measured continuously in spring water at Badshahi Thaul Campus, Tehri Garhwal in Himalayan region by using radon emanometer since December 2002. An effort was made to correlate the variance of radon concentration in spring water with meteorological parameters and seismic events in study area. The positive correlation (coefficient = 0.79, 0.53, 0.60 and 0.70) was observed between measured radon concentration and minimum and maximum temperature, relative humidity and water discharge rate from the spring, respectively. However, no correlation was recorded between radon concentration and rain fall in the study area. Sudden increase in radon concentration in spring water were observed before the earthquakes occurred on 24 January 2003 of magnitude 3.4 on Richter scale having epicenter near Uttarkashi in Garhwal Himalaya and on 31 January 2003 of magnitude 3.1 on Richter scale having epicenter almost in same area. Similar changes in radon concentration were recorded before the earthquakes occurred on 4 April 2003 with magnitude 4.0 having epicenter near Almora in Kumaon Himalaya and on 26 May 2003 having magnitude 3.5 in Chamoli region of Garhwal Himalaya. Regular radon anomaly was recorded with micro seismic events from 5th August to 4th September 2003, which is discussed in detail. The impact of non geophysical and geophysical events on radon concentration in spring water is discussed in details. This type of study will help us to develop earthquake alarm model from radon in near future. (author)

The Banat seismic network: Evolution and performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oros, E.

2002-01-01

In the Banat Seismic Region, with its important seismogenic zones (Banat and Danube), operates today the Banat Seismic Network. This network has four short period seismic stations telemetered at the Timisoara Seismological Observatory (since 1995): Siria, Banloc, Buzias and Timisoara. The stations are equipped with short-period S13 seismometers (1 second). The data recorded by the short-period stations are telemetered to Timisoara where they are digitized at 50 samples per second, with 16 bit resolution. At Timisoara works SAPS, an automated system for data acquisition and processing, which performs real-time event detection (based on Allen algorithm), discrimination between local and teleseismic events, automatic P and S waves picking, location and magnitude determination for local events and teleseisms, 'feeding' of an Automatic Data Request Manager with phases, locations and waveforms, sending of earthquake information (as phases and location), by e-mail to Bucharest. The beginning of the seismological observations in Banat is in the 1880's (Timisoara Meteorological Observatory). The first seismograph was installed in Timisoara in 1901, and its systematic observations began in 1902. The World War I interrupted its work. In 1942 Prof. I. Curea founded the Seismic Station Timisoara, and since 1967 until today this station worked into a special building. After 1972 two stations with high amplification were installed in Retezat Mts (Gura Zlata) and on Nera Valey (Susara), as a consequence of the research results. Since 1982 Buzias station began to work completing the Banat Seismic Network. Therefore, the network could detect and locate any local seismic event with M > 2.2. Moreover, up to 20 km distance from each station any seismic event could be detected over M = 0.5. The paper also presents the quality of the locations versus different local seismic sources. (author)

Use of waveform similarity to define planes of mining-induced seismic events

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Spottiswoode, SM

1998-04-15

Full Text Available can be associated with failure of previously unfractured rock (Ortlepp, 1978), geological discon- tinuities, large and small, play an important role. The largest mining-induced seismic events are usually as- sociated with faults and dykes (Gay et al... by SIMRAC under the project GAP033. We would like to thank Blyvooruitzicht Mine and R.J. Stewart for use of the seismic data. The au- thors thank N.C. Gay for his helpful review and discussions. References Deichmann, N., Garcia-Fernandez, M., 1992. Rupture...

Peculiarity of the temporal distributions of seismic events in the Central America and Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Sasorova, E.; Levin, B.

2010-03-01

At first the interannual earthquake distributions and its peculiarity in predetermined region are considered. The hypothesis about within-year variability existence for the events of various energy levels was tested. The worldwide catalogs ISC (International Seismic Catalog) and NEIC (USGS) were used. It was extracted all EQs for the Pacific part of the given region from 1964 with Mb>=4.0. The entire set of events under analysis was divided into several magnitude ranges (MR). The analysis of the completeness of events in defined MRs was carried out. The aftershocks were canceled from the list. Further analysis was performed separately for each MR. Then the events in each magnitude level were subdivided once again into two groups: shallow events (H Htr), where Htr is depth threshold value. Then we are checking if the distributions of the events during the year period are uniform or these distributions are no uniform. We are testing our data separately for each magnitude level and for every depth level. The null hypothesis about uniform EQ distributions in the course of year was disproved for the most samples with shallow EQ (95%). But the null hypothesis was confirmed for deep earthquakes. We use the Chi-Square test for well-filled sequences and method of statistical testing for poor-filled sequences. The Htr value determines the boundary, which divided the seismic events in two groups. If the EQ's sources located above this boundary then such EQ's are distributed non-uniformly in the course of year. While if the EQ sources located below this boundary then distribution of such EQ during the year period are uniform. It was found by using special software procedure that the Htr boundary between the shallow and the deep events in the most cases was arranged in deep 60-80 km. The noticeable increase number of seismic events in short time intervals as a rule two times in year, and significant reducing of seismic activity in the rest part of the year was shown. It was

Experimental Seismic Event-screening Criteria at the Prototype International Data Center

Science.gov (United States)

Fisk, M. D.; Jepsen, D.; Murphy, J. R.

- Experimental seismic event-screening capabilities are described, based on the difference of body-and surface-wave magnitudes (denoted as Ms:mb) and event depth. These capabilities have been implemented and tested at the prototype International Data Center (PIDC), based on recommendations by the IDC Technical Experts on Event Screening in June 1998. Screening scores are presented that indicate numerically the degree to which an event meets, or does not meet, the Ms:mb and depth screening criteria. Seismic events are also categorized as onshore, offshore, or mixed, based on their 90% location error ellipses and an onshore/offshore grid with five-minute resolution, although this analysis is not used at this time to screen out events.Results are presented of applications to almost 42,000 events with mb>=3.5 in the PIDC Standard Event Bulletin (SEB) and to 121 underground nuclear explosions (UNE's) at the U.S. Nevada Test Site (NTS), the Semipalatinsk and Novaya Zemlya test sites in the Former Soviet Union, the Lop Nor test site in China, and the Indian, Pakistan, and French Polynesian test sites. The screening criteria appear to be quite conservative. None of the known UNE's are screened out, while about 41 percent of the presumed earthquakes in the SEB with mb>=3.5 are screened out. UNE's at the Lop Nor, Indian, and Pakistan test sites on 8 June 1996, 11 May 1998, and 28 May 1998, respectively, have among the lowest Ms:mb scores of all events in the SEB.To assess the validity of the depth screening results, comparisons are presented of SEB depth solutions to those in other bulletins that are presumed to be reliable and independent. Using over 1600 events, the comparisons indicate that the SEB depth confidence intervals are consistent with or shallower than over 99.8 percent of the corresponding depth estimates in the other bulletins. Concluding remarks are provided regarding the performance of the experimental event-screening criteria, and plans for future

Multi-Parameter Observation and Detection of Pre-Earthquake Signals in Seismically Active Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Parrot, M.; Liu, J. Y.; Hattori, K.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P.

2012-01-01

The recent large earthquakes (M9.0 Tohoku, 03/2011; M7.0 Haiti, 01/2010; M6.7 L Aquila, 04/2008; and M7.9 Wenchuan 05/2008) have renewed interest in pre-anomalous seismic signals associated with them. Recent workshops (DEMETER 2006, 2011 and VESTO 2009 ) have shown that there were precursory atmospheric /ionospheric signals observed in space prior to these events. Our initial results indicate that no single pre-earthquake observation (seismic, magnetic field, electric field, thermal infrared [TIR], or GPS/TEC) can provide a consistent and successful global scale early warning. This is most likely due to complexity and chaotic nature of earthquakes and the limitation in existing ground (temporal/spatial) and global satellite observations. In this study we analyze preseismic temporal and spatial variations (gas/radon counting rate, atmospheric temperature and humidity change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) which we propose occur before the onset of major earthquakes:. We propose an Integrated Space -- Terrestrial Framework (ISTF), as a different approach for revealing pre-earthquake phenomena in seismically active areas. ISTF is a sensor web of a coordinated observation infrastructure employing multiple sensors that are distributed on one or more platforms; data from satellite sensors (Terra, Aqua, POES, DEMETER and others) and ground observations, e.g., Global Positioning System, Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC). As a theoretical guide we use the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model to explain the generation of multiple earthquake precursors. Using our methodology, we evaluated retrospectively the signals preceding the most devastated earthquakes during 2005-2011. We observed a correlation between both atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies preceding most of these earthquakes. The second phase of our validation include systematic retrospective analysis for more than 100 major earthquakes (M>5

Study of local seismic events in Lithuania and adjacent areas using data from the PASSEQ experiment

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Janutyte, I.; Kozlovskaya, E.; Motuza, G.; Plomerová, Jaroslava; Babuška, Vladislav; Gaždová, Renata; Jedlička, Petr; Kolínský, Petr; Málek, Jiří; Novotný, Oldřich; Růžek, Bohuslav

2013-01-01

Roč. 170, č. 5 (2013), s. 797-814 ISSN 0033-4553 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 ; RVO:67985891 Keywords : location of local seismic events * East European Craton * PASSEQ passive seismic experiment Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.854, year: 2013

The whole story: rumours and science communication in the aftermath of seismic events

Science.gov (United States)

Crescimbene, Massimo; Todesco, Micol; Camassi, Romano

2016-04-01

Controversies that stir the public debate on geological matters in Italy often pertain to two specific aspects: the actual trigger of geological phenomena (i.e., natural vs anthropogenic) and the trustworthiness of the experts who provide information and advise on the phenomena. A typical example of such difficulties is the case of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence, which struck an area of moderate seismic hazard. At the same time, geophysical prospecting was planned to assess the potential of a reservoir for gas storage, near the town of Rivara. The low frequency of important seismic events in the area, associated with the ongoing industrial planning prompted widespread rumours of an anthropogenic origin of the 2012 earthquake. Since then, public concern has been risen several time by the occurrence of anomalous surface phenomena (among which heating of well water). While these phenomena always occurred in the area, and were recently explained in terms of a shallow, exothermic oxidation of methane, popular belief tends to establish a causal link between anomalous temperature and seismic activity. The ambiguity in the definition of the size of seismic events may further hinder communication efforts: such size may be expressed in different ways, and may assume different values depending on the adopted computational technique and on the size and geometry of the available seismic network. As a result, different institutions may release different numbers to express the magnitude of the same earthquake, casting doubts on the reliability of the estimate. We'll present and discuss different activities that INGV (Sezione di Bologna) pursued through the years, in collaboration with various local and national institutions, to provide an effective dissemination of scientific information and to reinforce mutual trust between our research institute and the local population.

Characteristics of aperiodic sequence of slip events caused by interaction between seismic patches and that caused be self-organized stress heterogeneity

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, N.

2017-12-01

Numerical simulations of earthquake cycles are conducted to investigate the origin of complexity of earthquake recurrence. There are two main causes of the complexity. One is self-organized stress heterogeneity due to dynamical effect. The other is the effect of interaction between some fault patches. In the model, friction on the fault is assumed to obey a rate- and state-dependent friction law. Circular patches of velocity-weakening frictional property are assumed on the fault. On the remaining areas of the fault, velocity-strengthening friction is assumed. We consider three models: Single patch model, two-patch model, and three-patch model. In the first model, the dynamical effect is mainly examined. The latter two models take into consideration the effect of interaction as well as the dynamical effect. Complex multiperiodic or aperiodic sequences of slip events occur when slip behavior changes from the seismic to aseismic, and when the degree of interaction between seismic patches is intermediate. The former is observed in all the models, and the latter is observed in the two-patch model and the three-patch model. Evolution of spatial distribution of shear stress on the fault suggests that aperiodicity at the transition from seismic to aseismic slip is caused by self-organized stress heterogeneity. The iteration maps of recurrence intervals of slip events in aperiodic sequences are examined, and they are approximately expressed by simple curves for aperiodicity at the transition from seismic to aseismic slip. In contrast, the iteration maps for aperiodic sequences caused by interaction between seismic patches are scattered and they are not expressed by simple curves. This result suggests that complex sequences caused by different mechanisms may be distinguished.

Seismic observations of subglacial water discharge from glacier-dammed lake drainage at Lemon Creek Glacier, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Labedz, C. R.; Bartholomaus, T. C.; Gimbert, F.; Amundson, J. M.; Vore, M. E.; Karplus, M. S.; Tsai, V. C.

2017-12-01

Subglacial water flow affects the dynamics of glaciers, influencing basal sliding, sediment transport, fracturing, and terminus dynamics. However, the difficulty of directly observing glacial hydrologic systems creates significant challenges in understanding such glacier behavior. Recently-developed descriptions of ground motion generated by subglacial water flow provide a promising basis for new and unique characterization of glacial hydrologic systems. Particularly, high-frequency ( 1.5-20 Hz) seismic tremor observed near glaciers has been shown to correlate with subglacial runoff. In addition, specific properties of subglacial water flow like water pressure, conduit size, sediment flux, and grain size can be inferred by examining hysteretic behavior over time between different parts of these signals. In this study, we observe the seismic signals generated by subglacial water flow using a high-density array of more than 100 nodes deployed for 10-25 days, and six broadband seismometers deployed for 80 days at Lemon Creek Glacier, Alaska. Specifically, we examine the 36-hour drainage of a glacier-dammed lake into subglacial conduits, comparing hydrologic metrics such as lake level, precipitation, and outlet stream flow rate to the power of seismic signals. Our node array captures this annually-significant hydraulic transient with sensors spaced approximately every 250 m over the majority of the 5.7 km long glacier. This and other lake drainage events provide natural experiments for exploring glaciohydraulic tremor, because the increased water flux through the glacier increases the power of the tremor and hosts the hysteretic behaviors described previously. Analysis of the tremor from events such as this can be extended to further understand subglacial runoff at Lemon Creek glacier and for glacier hydrology in general.

Moment tensor and location of seismic events in the 2017 DPRK test

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, S.; Shi, Q.; Chen, Q. F.; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

The main seismic event in the 2017 DPRK test was followed by a secondary event about eight minutes later. We conducted waveform analysis on the regional broadband waveform data to better constrain the moment tensor and location of these two events, to further understand their relations. In the first place, we applied the generalized Cut-And-Paste (gCAP) method to the regional data to invert the full moment tensor solutions of the two events. Our long period (0.02-0.08 Hz for Pnl, 0.02-0.055 Hz for surface waves) inversions show that the main event was composed of large positive ISO component ( 90% of the total moment) and has a moment magnitude of 5.4. In contrast, the second event shows large negative ISO component ( 50% of the total moment) with a moment magnitude of 4.5. Although there are trade-offs between the CLVD and the ISO component for the second event, chiefly caused by the coda waves from the first event, the result is more robust if we force a small CVLD component in the inversion. We also relocated the epicenter of the second event using P-wave first arrival picks, relative to the location of the first event, which has been accurately determined from the high-resolution geodetic data. The calibration from the first event allows us to precisely locate the second event, which shows an almost identical location to the first event. After a polarity correction, their high-frequency ( 0.25 - 0.9 Hz) regional surface waves also display high similarity, supporting the similar location but opposite ISO polarity of the two events. Our results suggest that the second event was likely to be caused by the collapsing after the main event, in agreement with the surface displacement derived from geodetic observation and modeling results.

Explosion Monitoring with Machine Learning: A LSTM Approach to Seismic Event Discrimination

Science.gov (United States)

Magana-Zook, S. A.; Ruppert, S. D.

2017-12-01

The streams of seismic data that analysts look at to discriminate natural from man- made events will soon grow from gigabytes of data per day to exponentially larger rates. This is an interesting problem as the requirement for real-time answers to questions of non-proliferation will remain the same, and the analyst pool cannot grow as fast as the data volume and velocity will. Machine learning is a tool that can solve the problem of seismic explosion monitoring at scale. Using machine learning, and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) models in particular, analysts can become more efficient by focusing their attention on signals of interest. From a global dataset of earthquake and explosion events, a model was trained to recognize the different classes of events, given their spectrograms. Optimal recurrent node count and training iterations were found, and cross validation was performed to evaluate model performance. A 10-fold mean accuracy of 96.92% was achieved on a balanced dataset of 30,002 instances. Given that the model is 446.52 MB it can be used to simultaneously characterize all incoming signals by researchers looking at events in isolation on desktop machines, as well as at scale on all of the nodes of a real-time streaming platform. LLNL-ABS-735911

Statistical Seismology and Induced Seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Tiampo, K. F.; González, P. J.; Kazemian, J.

2014-12-01

While seismicity triggered or induced by natural resources production such as mining or water impoundment in large dams has long been recognized, the recent increase in the unconventional production of oil and gas has been linked to rapid rise in seismicity in many places, including central North America (Ellsworth et al., 2012; Ellsworth, 2013). Worldwide, induced events of M~5 have occurred and, although rare, have resulted in both damage and public concern (Horton, 2012; Keranen et al., 2013). In addition, over the past twenty years, the increase in both number and coverage of seismic stations has resulted in an unprecedented ability to precisely record the magnitude and location of large numbers of small magnitude events. The increase in the number and type of seismic sequences available for detailed study has revealed differences in their statistics that previously difficult to quantify. For example, seismic swarms that produce significant numbers of foreshocks as well as aftershocks have been observed in different tectonic settings, including California, Iceland, and the East Pacific Rise (McGuire et al., 2005; Shearer, 2012; Kazemian et al., 2014). Similarly, smaller events have been observed prior to larger induced events in several occurrences from energy production. The field of statistical seismology has long focused on the question of triggering and the mechanisms responsible (Stein et al., 1992; Hill et al., 1993; Steacy et al., 2005; Parsons, 2005; Main et al., 2006). For example, in most cases the associated stress perturbations are much smaller than the earthquake stress drop, suggesting an inherent sensitivity to relatively small stress changes (Nalbant et al., 2005). Induced seismicity provides the opportunity to investigate triggering and, in particular, the differences between long- and short-range triggering. Here we investigate the statistics of induced seismicity sequences from around the world, including central North America and Spain, and

Statistical Analysis and ETAS Modeling of Seismicity Induced by Production of Geothermal Energy from Hydrothermal Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Dinske, C.; Langenbruch, C.; Shapiro, S. A.

2017-12-01

We investigate seismicity related to hydrothermal systems in Germany and Italy, focussing on temporal changes of seismicity rates. Our analysis was motivated by numerical simulations The modeling of stress changes caused by the injection and production of fluid revealed that seismicity rates decrease on a long-term perspective which is not observed in the considered case studies. We analyze the waiting time distributions of the seismic events in both time domain (inter event times) and fluid volume domain (inter event volume). We find clear indications that the observed seismicity comprises two components: (1) seismicity that is directly triggered by production and re-injection of fluid, i.e. induced events, and (2) seismicity that is triggered by earthquake interactions, i.e. aftershock triggering. In order to better constrain our numerical simulations using the observed induced seismicity we apply catalog declustering to seperate the two components. We use the magnitude-dependent space-time windowing approach introduced by Gardner and Knopoff (1974) and test several published algorithms to calculate the space-time windows. After declustering, we conclude that the different hydrothermal reservoirs show a comparable seismic response to the circulation of fluid and additional triggering by earthquake interactions. The declustered catalogs contain approximately 50 per cent of the number of events in the original catalogs. We then perform ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock; Ogata, 1986, 1988) modeling for two reasons. First, we want to know whether the different reservoirs are also comparable regarding earthquake interaction patterns. Second, if we identify systematic patterns, ETAS modeling can contribute to forecast seismicity during production of geothermal energy. We find that stationary ETAS models cannot accurately capture real seismicity rate changes. One reason for this finding is given by the rate of observed induced events which is not constant over time. Hence

Source Inversion of Seismic Events Associated with the Sinkhole at Napoleonville Salt Dome, Louisiana using a 3D Velocity Model

Science.gov (United States)

Nayak, Avinash; Dreger, Douglas S.

2018-05-01

The formation of a large sinkhole at the Napoleonville salt dome (NSD), Assumption Parish, Louisiana, caused by the collapse of a brine cavern, was accompanied by an intense and complex sequence of seismic events. We implement a grid-search approach to compute centroid locations and point-source moment tensor (MT) solutions of these seismic events using ˜0.1-0.3 Hz displacement waveforms and synthetic Green's functions computed using a 3D velocity model of the western edge of the NSD. The 3D model incorporates the currently known approximate geometry of the salt dome and the overlying anhydrite-gypsum cap rock, and features a large velocity contrast between the high velocity salt dome and low velocity sediments overlying and surrounding it. For each possible location on the source grid, Green's functions (GFs) to each station were computed using source-receiver reciprocity and the finite-difference seismic wave propagation software SW4. We also establish an empirical method to rigorously assess uncertainties in the centroid location, MW and source type of these events under evolving network geometry, using the results of synthetic tests with hypothetical events and real seismic noise. We apply the methods on the entire duration of data (˜6 months) recorded by the temporary US Geological Survey network. During an energetic phase of the sequence from 24-31 July 2012 when 4 stations were operational, the events with the best waveform fits are primarily located at the western edge of the salt dome at most probable depths of ˜0.3-0.85 km, close to the horizontal positions of the cavern and the future sinkhole. The data are fit nearly equally well by opening crack MTs in the high velocity salt medium or by isotropic volume-increase MTs in the low velocity sediment layers. We find that data recorded by 6 stations during 1-2 August 2012, right before the appearance of the sinkhole, indicate that some events are likely located in the lower velocity media just outside the

Observations of hybrid seismic events at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat: July 1995 to September 1996

Science.gov (United States)

White, R.A.; Miller, A.D.; Lynch, L.; Power, J.

1998-01-01

Swarms of small repetitive events with similar waveforms and magnitudes are often observed during the emplacement of lava domes. Over 300 000 such events were recorded in association with the emplacement of the lava dome at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from August 1995 through August 1996. These events originated Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from August 1995 through August 1996. These events originated <2-3 km deep. They exhibited energy ranging over approximately 1.5-4.5 Hz and were broader band than typical long-period events. We term the events `hybrid' between long-period and volcano-tectonic. The events were more impulsive and broader band prior to, compared with during and after, periods of inferred increased magma flux rate. Individual swarms contained up to 10,000 events often exhibiting very similar magnitudes and waveforms throughout the swarm. Swarms lasted hours to weeks, during which inter-event intervals generally increased, then decreased, often several times. Long-duration swarms began about every two months starting in late September 1995. We speculate that the events were produced as the magma column degassed into adjacent cracks.

Seismic Observation in Deep Boreholes and Its Applications - Workshop Proceedings, Niigata Institute of Technology, Kashiwazaki, Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-01-01

The Kashiwazaki WS was held to develop the recommendations made at the Tsukuba WS entitled 'Seismic Input Motions Incorporating Recent Geological Studies' which was held in November 2004 in Tsukuba City in Japan (hereinafter, the 'Tsukuba WS'). At the Tsukuba WS, the state of the art in defining realistic seismic input for the design and re-evaluation of nuclear facilities as well as advances in seismic source characterization of fault zones using data from deep geological investigations and their possible contribution to improving seismic input definitions were reviewed. Further, the importance and necessity of cooperation between seismology and geology in order to decrease uncertainty in seismic input definition were emphasized. After the Tsukuba WS, the Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake (NCOE, M=6.8) occurred near the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP site. In this earthquake, a focusing effect of ground motion was observed at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP site, which caused locally amplified ground motion. Units 1 and 2 showed significantly higher responses of more than 50 percent compared to Units 3 to 7. This was thought to be caused by the fact that seismic waves were focused on Units 1 and 2 due to the irregular structure under the site. A similar effect was observed at the Hamaoka site in the earthquake that occurred in Suruga Bay in 2009. Only Unit 5 showed a double or larger response to this earthquake, and similar phenomena were found only for events with hypocenter in the narrow direction from the site. This was also thought to be caused by the irregular geological structure under the site. In the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake, the peak ground accelerations (PGA) of the Dai-ichi NPP site were about twice as large as those of the Dai-ni NPP site, although the distance between these sites is only slightly more than 10 km. Further, large differences in the PGAs were found among each of the units of the Dai-ichi NPP site. For example, the PGA of Unit

Testing the Quick Seismic Event Locator and Magnitude Calculator (SSL_Calc) by Marsite Project Data Base

Science.gov (United States)

Tunc, Suleyman; Tunc, Berna; Caka, Deniz; Baris, Serif

2016-04-01

Locating and calculating size of the seismic events is quickly one of the most important and challenging issue in especially real time seismology. In this study, we developed a Matlab application to locate seismic events and calculate their magnitudes (Local Magnitude and empirical Moment Magnitude) using single station called SSL_Calc. This newly developed sSoftware has been tested on the all stations of the Marsite project "New Directions in Seismic Hazard Assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite-MARsite". SSL_Calc algorithm is suitable both for velocity and acceleration sensors. Data has to be in GCF (Güralp Compressed Format). Online or offline data can be selected in SCREAM software (belongs to Guralp Systems Limited) and transferred to SSL_Calc. To locate event P and S wave picks have to be marked by using SSL_Calc window manually. During magnitude calculation, instrument correction has been removed and converted to real displacement in millimeter. Then the displacement data is converted to Wood Anderson Seismometer output by using; Z=[0;0]; P=[-6.28+4.71j; -6.28-4.71j]; A0=[2080] parameters. For Local Magnitude calculation,; maximum displacement amplitude (A) and distance (dist) are used in formula (1) for distances up to 200km and formula (2) for more than 200km. ML=log10(A)-(-1.118-0.0647*dist+0.00071*dist2-3.39E-6*dist3+5.71e-9*dist4) (1) ML=log10(A)+(2.1173+0.0082*dist-0.0000059628*dist2) (2) Following Local Magnitude calculation, the programcode calculates two empiric Moment Magnitudes using formulas (3) Akkar et al. (2010) and (4) Ulusay et al. (2004). Mw=0.953* ML+0.422 (3) Mw=0.7768* ML+1.5921 (4) SSL_Calc is a software that is easy to implement and user friendly and offers practical solution to individual users to location of event and ML, Mw calculation.

Long-period seismicity reveals magma pathways above a laterally propagating dyke during the 2014-15 Bárðarbunga rifting event, Iceland

Science.gov (United States)

Woods, Jennifer; Donaldson, Clare; White, Robert S.; Caudron, Corentin; Brandsdóttir, Bryndís; Hudson, Thomas S.; Ágústsdóttir, Thorbjörg

2018-05-01

The 2014-15 Bárðarbunga-Holuhraun rifting event comprised the best-monitored dyke intrusion to date and the largest eruption in Iceland in 230 years. A huge variety of seismicity was produced, including over 30,000 volcano-tectonic earthquakes (VTs) associated with the dyke propagation at ∼6 km depth below sea level, and large-magnitude earthquakes accompanying the collapse of Bárðarbunga caldera. We here study the long-period seismicity associated with the rifting event. We systematically detect and locate both long-period events (LPs) and tremor during the dyke propagation phase and the first week of the eruption. We identify clusters of highly similar, repetitive LPs, which have a peak frequency of ∼1 Hz and clear P and S phases followed by a long-duration coda. The source mechanisms are remarkably consistent between clusters and also fundamentally different to those of the VTs. We accurately locate LP clusters near each of three ice cauldrons (depressions formed by basal melting) that were observed on the surface of Dyngjujökull glacier above the path of the dyke. Most events are in the vicinity of the northernmost cauldron, at shallower depth than the VTs associated with lateral dyke propagation. At the two northerly cauldrons, periods of shallow seismic tremor following the clusters of LPs are also observed. Given that the LPs occur at ∼4 km depth and in swarms during times of dyke-stalling, we infer that they result from excitation of magmatic fluid-filled cavities and indicate magma ascent. We suggest that the tremor is the climax of the vertical melt movement, arising from either rapid, repeated excitation of the same LP cavities, or sub-glacial eruption processes. This long-period seismicity therefore represents magma pathways between the depth of the dyke-VT earthquakes and the surface. Notably, we do not detect tremor associated with each cauldron, despite melt reaching the base of the overlying ice cap, a concern for hazard monitoring.

Locating seismicity on the Arctic plate boundary using multiple-event techniques and empirical signal processing

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbons, S. J.; Harris, D. B.; Dahl-Jensen, T.; Kværna, T.; Larsen, T. B.; Paulsen, B.; Voss, P. H.

2017-12-01

The oceanic boundary separating the Eurasian and North American plates between 70° and 84° north hosts large earthquakes which are well recorded teleseismically, and many more seismic events at far lower magnitudes that are well recorded only at regional distances. Existing seismic bulletins have considerable spread and bias resulting from limited station coverage and deficiencies in the velocity models applied. This is particularly acute for the lower magnitude events which may only be constrained by a small number of Pn and Sn arrivals. Over the past two decades there has been a significant improvement in the seismic network in the Arctic: a difficult region to instrument due to the harsh climate, a sparsity of accessible sites (particularly at significant distances from the sea), and the expense and difficult logistics of deploying and maintaining stations. New deployments and upgrades to stations on Greenland, Svalbard, Jan Mayen, Hopen, and Bjørnøya have resulted in a sparse but stable regional seismic network which results in events down to magnitudes below 3 generating high-quality Pn and Sn signals on multiple stations. A catalogue of several hundred events in the region since 1998 has been generated using many new phase readings on stations on both sides of the spreading ridge in addition to teleseismic P phases. A Bayesian multiple event relocation has resulted in a significant reduction in the spread of hypocentre estimates for both large and small events. Whereas single event location algorithms minimize vectors of time residuals on an event-by-event basis, the Bayesloc program finds a joint probability distribution of origins, hypocentres, and corrections to traveltime predictions for large numbers of events. The solutions obtained favour those event hypotheses resulting in time residuals which are most consistent over a given source region. The relocations have been performed with different 1-D velocity models applicable to the Arctic region and

Irregularities in Early Seismic Rupture Propagation for Large Events in a Crustal Earthquake Model

Science.gov (United States)

Lapusta, N.; Rice, J. R.; Rice, J. R.

2001-12-01

We study early seismic propagation of model earthquakes in a 2-D model of a vertical strike-slip fault with depth-variable rate and state friction properties. Our model earthquakes are obtained in fully dynamic simulations of sequences of instabilities on a fault subjected to realistically slow tectonic loading (Lapusta et al., JGR, 2000). This work is motivated by results of Ellsworth and Beroza (Science, 1995), who observe that for many earthquakes, far-field velocity seismograms during initial stages of dynamic rupture propagation have irregular fluctuations which constitute a "seismic nucleation phase". In our simulations, we find that such irregularities in velocity seismograms can be caused by two factors: (1) rupture propagation over regions of stress concentrations and (2) partial arrest of rupture in neighboring creeping regions. As rupture approaches a region of stress concentration, it sees increasing background stress and its moment acceleration (to which velocity seismographs in the far field are proportional) increases. After the peak in stress concentration, the rupture sees decreasing background stress and moment acceleration decreases. Hence a fluctuation in moment acceleration is created. If rupture starts sufficiently far from a creeping region, then partial arrest of rupture in the creeping region causes a decrease in moment acceleration. As the other parts of rupture continue to develop, moment acceleration then starts to grow again, and a fluctuation again results. Other factors may cause the irregularities in moment acceleration, e.g., phenomena such as branching and/or intermittent rupture propagation (Poliakov et al., submitted to JGR, 2001) which we have not studied here. Regions of stress concentration are created in our model by arrest of previous smaller events as well as by interactions with creeping regions. One such region is deep in the fault zone, and is caused by the temperature-induced transition from seismogenic to creeping

Linking ground motion measurements and macro-seismic observations in France: A case study based on the RAP (accelerometric) and BCSF (macro-seismic) databases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lesueur, Ch.

2011-01-01

Comparison between accelerometric and macro-seismic observations is made for three mw∼4.5 earthquakes of eastern France between 2003 and 2005. Scalar and spectral instrumental parameters are processed from the accelerometric data recorded by nine accelerometric stations located between 29 km and 180 km from the epicentres. Macro-seismic data are based on the French internet reports. In addition to the individual macro-seismic intensity, analysis of the internal correlation between the encoded answers highlights four predominant fields of questions, bearing different physical meanings: 1) 'vibratory motions of small objects', 2) 'displacement and fall of objects', 3) 'acoustic noise', and 4) 'personal feelings'. Best correlations between macro-seismic and instrumental observations are obtained when the macro-seismic parameters are averaged over 10 km radius circles around each station. macro-seismic intensities predicted by published pgv-intensity relationships quite agree with the observed intensities, contrary to those based on pga. The correlations between the macro-seismic and instrumental data, for intensities between ii and v (ems-98), show that pgv is the instrumental parameter presenting the best correlation with all macro-seismic parameters. The correlation with response spectra, exhibits clear frequency dependence over a limited frequency range [0.5-33 hz]. Horizontal and vertical components are significantly correlated with macro-seismic parameters between 1 and 10 hz, a range corresponding to both natural frequencies of most buildings and high energy content in the seismic ground motion. Between 10 and 25 hz, a clear lack of correlation between macro-seismic and instrumental data is observed, while beyond 25 hz the correlation coefficient increases, approaching that of the PGA correlation level. (author)

Data processing of natural and induced events recorded at the seismic station Ostrava-Kr¨¢sn¨¦ Pole (OKC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nov¨¢k Josef

2001-09-01

Full Text Available The operation of the seismic station Ostrava-Kr¨¢sn¨¦ Pole (OKC (¦Õ = 49.8352¡ãN; ¦Ë = 18.1422¡ãE which is situated at present in an experimental gallery nearby the Ostrava planetarium started in the year 1983 being equiped initially by analogue instrumentation. Modernization of instrumentation at the station was aimed at the installation of a new digital data acquisition system and the respective software packages for data interpretation and transmission.Data acquisition system VISTEC is based on PC which enables continuous recording of three- component short-period and medium-period systems with the sampling frequency of 20 Hz. The basic advantage of the OS Linux adopted allows remote access (telnet and the possibility of the recorded data transmission (ftp. Possible troubles in the seismic station operation can be quickly detected (even automatically and all recorded data are with minimum delay on disposal. The use of the remote access makes possible also to change the parameters of measuring set-up. The standard form of output data allows the application of standard software packages for visualisation and evaluation. There are on disposal following formates: GSE2/CM6, GSE2/INT and MiniSEED. The output data sets can be compressed by a special procedure. For interactive interpretation od digital seismic data, software package EVENT developed in the Geophysical Institute AS CR and package WAVE developed in the Institute of Geonics AS CR are used.Experimental operation of digital seismographs at the station OKC confirmed justification of its incorporation into the seismic stations of the Czech national seismological network (CNSN. Based on the preliminary analysis of digital data it proved that following groups of seismic events are recorded: earthquakes, induced seismic events from Polish copper and coal mines, induced seismic events from the Ostrava-Karvin¨¢ Coal Basin, quarry blasts and weak regional seismic events of the

Risk assessment of K basin twelve-inch drain valve failure from a postulated seismic initiating event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MORGAN, R.G.

1999-01-01

The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project will transfer metallic SNF from the Hanford 105 K-East and 105 K-West Basins to safe interim storage in the Canister Storage Building in the 200 Area. The initial basis for design, fabrication, installation, and operation of the fuel removal systems was that the basin leak rates which could result from a postulated accident condition would not be excessive relative to reasonable recovery operations. However, an additional potential K Basin water leak path is through the K Basin drain valves. Three twelve-inch drain valves are located in the main basin bays along the north wall. The sumps containing the valves are filled with concrete which covers the drain valve body. Visual observations suggest that only the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor. It was recognized, however, that damage of the drain valve bonnet or stem during a seismic initiating event could provide a potential K Basin water leak path. The objectives of this activity are to: (1) evaluate the risk of damaging the three twelve-inch drain valves located along the north wall of the main basin from a seismic initiating event, and (2) determine the associated potential leak rate from a damaged valve

Risk assessment of K basin twelve-inch drain valve failure from a postulated seismic initiating event

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MORGAN, R.G.

1999-04-06

The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project will transfer metallic SNF from the Hanford 105 K-East and 105 K-West Basins to safe interim storage in the Canister Storage Building in the 200 Area. The initial basis for design, fabrication, installation, and operation of the fuel removal systems was that the basin leak rates which could result from a postulated accident condition would not be excessive relative to reasonable recovery operations. However, an additional potential K Basin water leak path is through the K Basin drain valves. Three twelve-inch drain valves are located in the main basin bays along the north wall. The sumps containing the valves are filled with concrete which covers the drain valve body. Visual observations suggest that only the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor. It was recognized, however, that damage of the drain valve bonnet or stem during a seismic initiating event could provide a potential K Basin water leak path. The objectives of this activity are to: (1) evaluate the risk of damaging the three twelve-inch drain valves located along the north wall of the main basin from a seismic initiating event, and (2) determine the associated potential leak rate from a damaged valve.

Neural network approach to the prediction of seismic events based on low-frequency signal monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japanese regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Popova

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Very-low-frequency/ low-frequency (VLF/LF sub-ionospheric radiowave monitoring has been widely used in recent years to analyze earthquake preparatory processes. The connection between earthquakes with M ≥5.5 and nighttime disturbances of signal amplitude and phase has been established. Thus, it is possible to use nighttime anomalies of VLF/LF signals as earthquake precursors. Here, we propose a method for estimation of the VLF/LF signal sensitivity to seismic processes using a neural network approach. We apply the error back-propagation technique based on a three-level perceptron to predict a seismic event. The back-propagation technique involves two main stages to solve the problem; namely, network training, and recognition (the prediction itself. To train a neural network, we first create a so-called ‘training set’. The ‘teacher’ specifies the correspondence between the chosen input and the output data. In the present case, a representative database includes both the LF data received over three years of monitoring at the station in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (2005-2007, and the seismicity parameters of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japanese regions. At the first stage, the neural network established the relationship between the characteristic features of the LF signal (the mean and dispersion of a phase and an amplitude at nighttime for a few days before a seismic event and the corresponding level of correlation with a seismic event, or the absence of a seismic event. For the second stage, the trained neural network was applied to predict seismic events from the LF data using twelve time intervals in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. The results of the prediction are discussed.

Study of Seismic Activity Using Geophysical and Radio Physical Equipment for Observation

Science.gov (United States)

Kvavadze, N.; Tsereteli, N. S.

2015-12-01

One of the most dangerous and destructive natural hazards are earthquakes, which is confirmed by recent earthquakes such as Nepal 2015, Japan and Turkey 2011. Because of this, study of seismic activity is important. Studying any process, it is necessary to use different methods of observation, which allows us to increase accuracy of obtained data. Seismic activity is a complex problem and its study needs different types of observation methods. Two main problems of seismic activity study are: reliable instrumental observations and earthquake short-term predictions. In case of seismic risks it is necessary to have reliable accelerometer data. One of the most promising field in earthquake short-term prediction is very low frequency (VLF) electromagnetic wave propagation in ionosphere observation. To study Seismic activity of Caucasus region, was created observation complex using Accelerometer, Velocimeter and VLF electromagnetic waves received from communication stations (located in different area of the world) reflected from low ionosphere. System is created and operates at Tbilisi State University Ionosphere Observatory, near Tbilisi in Tabakhmela 42.41'70 N, 44.80'92 E, Georgia. Data obtained is sent to a local server located at M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, TSU, for storage and processing. Diagram for complex is presented. Also data analysis methods were created and preliminary processing was done. In this paper we present some of the results: Earthquake data from ionosphere observations as well as local earthquakes recorded with accelerometer and velocimeter. Complex is first in 6 that will be placed around Georgia this year. We plan on widening network every year.

Dimensional Representation and Gradient Boosting for Seismic Event Classification

Science.gov (United States)

Semmelmayer, F. C.; Kappedal, R. D.; Magana-Zook, S. A.

2017-12-01

In this research, we conducted experiments of representational structures on 5009 seismic signals with the intent of finding a method to classify signals as either an explosion or an earthquake in an automated fashion. We also applied a gradient boosted classifier. While perfect classification was not attained (approximately 88% was our best model), some cases demonstrate that many events can be filtered out as very high probability being explosions or earthquakes, diminishing subject-matter experts'(SME) workload for first stage analysis. It is our hope that these methods can be refined, further increasing the classification probability.

Risks posed by large seismic events in the gold mining districts of South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Durrheim, RJ

2011-01-01

Full Text Available buildings are considered vulnerable to damage by large seismic events, posing safety and financial risks. It is recommended that an earthquake engineer inspect the building stock and review the content and enforcement of building codes. Appropriate training...

Seismic and Geodetic Monitoring of the Nicoya, Costa Rica, Seismic Gap

Science.gov (United States)

Protti, M.; Gonzalez, V.; Schwartz, S.; Dixon, T.; Kato, T.; Kaneda, Y.; Simila, G.; Sampson, D.

2007-05-01

The Nicoya segment of the Middle America Trench has been recognized as a mature seismic gap with potential to generate a large earthquake in the near future (it ruptured with large earthquakes in 1853, 1900 and 1950). Low level of background seismicity and fast crustal deformation of the forearc are indicatives of strong coupling along the plate interface. Given its high seismic potential, the available data and especially the fact that the Nicoya peninsula extends over large part of the rupture area, this gap was selected as one of the two sites for a MARGINS-SEIZE experiment. With the goal of documenting the evolution of loading and stress release along this seismic gap, an international effort involving several institutions from Costa Rica, the United States and Japan is being carried out for over a decade in the region. This effort involves the installation of temporary and permanent seismic and geodetic networks. The seismic network includes short period, broad band and strong motion instruments. The seismic monitoring has provided valuable information on the geometry and characteristics of the plate interface. The geodetic network includes temporary and permanent GPS stations as well as surface and borehole tiltmeters. The geodetic networks have helped quantify the extend and degree of coupling. A continuously recording, three- station GPS network on the Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica, recorded what we believe is the first slow slip event observed along the plate interface of the Costa Rica subduction zone. We will present results from these monitoring networks. Collaborative international efforts are focused on expanding these seismic and geodetic networks to provide improved resolution of future creep events, to enhanced understanding of the mechanical behavior of the Nicoya subduction segment of the Middle American Trench and possibly capture the next large earthquake and its potential precursor deformation.

The Iquique 2014 sequence: understanding its nucleation and propagation from the seismicity evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Fuenzalida, A.; Rietbrock, A.; Woollam, J.; Tavera, H.; Ruiz, S.

2017-12-01

The Northern Chile and Southern Peru region is well known for its high seismic hazard due to the lack of recent major ruptures along long segments of the subduction interface. For this reason the 2014 Iquique Mw 8.1 earthquake that occurred in the Northern Chile seismic gap was expected and high quality seismic and geodetic networks were operating at the time of the event recording the precursory phase of a mega-thrust event with unprecedented detail. In this study we used seismic data collected during the 2014 Iquique sequence to generate a detailed earthquake catalogue. This catalogue consists of more than 15,000 events identified in Northern Chile during the period between 1/3/14 and 31/5/14 and provides full coverage of the immediate foreshock sequence, the main-shock and early after-shock series. The initial catalogue was obtained by automatic data processing and only selecting events with at least two associate S phases to improve the reliability of initial locations. Subsequently, this subset of events was automatically processed again using an optimized STA/LTA triggering algorithm for both P and S-waves and constraining the detection times by estimated arrival times at each station calculated for the preliminary locations. Finally, all events were relocated using a recently developed 1D velocity model and associated station corrections. For events Mw 4 or larger that occurred between the 15/3/14 and 10/04/14, we estimated it regional moment tensor by full-waveform inversion. Our results confirm the seismic activation of the upper plate during the foreshock sequence, as well highlight a crustal activity on the fore-arc during the aftershock series. The seismicity distribution was compared to the previous inter-seismic coupling studies obtained in the region, in which we observe interplay between high and low coupling areas, which are correlated to the seismicity rate. The spatial distribution of the seismicity and the complexities on the mechanisms observed

Influence of Tidal Forces on the Triggering of Seismic Events

Science.gov (United States)

Varga, Péter; Grafarend, Erik

2018-05-01

Tidal stresses are generated in any three-dimensional body influenced by an external inhomogeneous gravity field of rotating planets or moons. In this paper, as a special case, stresses caused within the solid Earth by the body tides are discussed from viewpoint of their influence on seismic activity. The earthquake triggering effects of the Moon and Sun are usually investigated by statistical comparison of tidal variations and temporal distribution of earthquake activity, or with the use of mathematical or experimental modelling of physical processes in earthquake prone structures. In this study, the magnitude of the lunisolar stress tensor in terms of its components along the latitude of the spherical surface of the Earth as well as inside the Earth (up to the core-mantle boundary) were calculated for the PREM (Dziewonski and Anderson in Phys Earth Planet Inter 25(4):297-356, 1981). Results of calculations prove that stress increases as a function of depth reaching a value around some kPa at the depth of 900-1500 km, well below the zone of deep earthquakes. At the depth of the overwhelming part of seismic energy accumulation (around 50 km) the stresses of lunisolar origin are only (0.0-1.0)·103 Pa. Despite the fact that these values are much smaller than the earthquake stress drops (1-30 MPa) (Kanamori in Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 22:207-237, 1994) this does not exclude the possibility of an impact of tidal forces on outbreak of seismic events. Since the tidal potential and its derivatives are coordinate dependent and the zonal, tesseral and sectorial tides have different distributions from the surface down to the CMB, the lunisolar stress cannot influence the break-out of every seismological event in the same degree. The influencing lunisolar effect of the solid earth tides on earthquake occurrences is connected first of all with stress components acting parallel to the surface of the Earth. The influence of load tides is limited to the loaded area and its

A Percolation Perspective for Gutenburg-Richter Scaling and b-values for Fracking Assocated Seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Norris, J. Q.

2016-12-01

Published 60 years ago, the Gutenburg-Richter law provides a universal frequency-magnitude distribution for natural and induced seismicity. The GR law is a two parameter power-law with the b-value specifying the relative frequency of small and large events. For large catalogs of natural seismicity, the observed b-values are near one, while fracking associated seismicity has observed b-values near two, indicating relatively fewer large events. We have developed a computationally inexpensive percolation model for fracking that allows us to generate large catalogs of fracking associated seismicity. Using these catalogs, we show that different power-law fitting procedures produce different b-values for the same data set. This shows that care must be taken when determining and comparing b-values for fracking associated seismicity.

Estimating the response times of human operators working in the main control room of nuclear power plants based on the context of a seismic event – A case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Jinkyun; Kim, Yochan; Kim, Jung Han; Jung, Wondea; Jang, Seung Cheol

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Response times under seismic events are necessary for human reliability analysis. • Conceptual framework to estimate response times under a seismic event is suggested. • Four kinds of representative contexts in seismic events are considered. • Rules for estimating response times on the representative contexts are extracted. - Abstract: After the Fukushima accident, a couple of novel issues have raised in terms of the safety assessment of nuclear power plants (NPPs). This means that the performance of human operators should be properly evaluated under an extreme event. However, it is unrealistic to collect a sufficient amount of human performance data from a real event, such as a great earthquake. As one of the promising solutions, a conceptual framework is suggested in this paper, which is helpful for estimating the response time data of human operators working in the main control room of NPPs under a seismic event. To this end, the four kinds of representative contexts that could be anticipated from seismic events are identified. Then the response times of human operators who are faced with similar contexts are reviewed from existing literatures and databases. As a result, a couple of rules that allow us to extrapolate the response times of human operators under seismic events are extracted. Although underlying rationales being used for determining these rules are still arguable, it is expected that response times under seismic events could be properly understood along with accumulating those of human operators against non-seismic conditions

Seismic, satellite, and site observations of internal solitary waves in the NE South China Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Qunshu; Wang, Caixia; Wang, Dongxiao; Pawlowicz, Rich

2014-06-20

Internal solitary waves (ISWs) in the NE South China Sea (SCS) are tidally generated at the Luzon Strait. Their propagation, evolution, and dissipation processes involve numerous issues still poorly understood. Here, a novel method of seismic oceanography capable of capturing oceanic finescale structures is used to study ISWs in the slope region of the NE SCS. Near-simultaneous observations of two ISWs were acquired using seismic and satellite imaging, and water column measurements. The vertical and horizontal length scales of the seismic observed ISWs are around 50 m and 1-2 km, respectively. Wave phase speeds calculated from seismic observations, satellite images, and water column data are consistent with each other. Observed waveforms and vertical velocities also correspond well with those estimated using KdV theory. These results suggest that the seismic method, a new option to oceanographers, can be further applied to resolve other important issues related to ISWs.

Detection capability of the IMS seismic network based on ambient seismic noise measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Gaebler, Peter J.; Ceranna, Lars

2016-04-01

All nuclear explosions - on the Earth's surface, underground, underwater or in the atmosphere - are banned by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). As part of this treaty, a verification regime was put into place to detect, locate and characterize nuclear explosion testings at any time, by anyone and everywhere on the Earth. The International Monitoring System (IMS) plays a key role in the verification regime of the CTBT. Out of the different monitoring techniques used in the IMS, the seismic waveform approach is the most effective technology for monitoring nuclear underground testing and to identify and characterize potential nuclear events. This study introduces a method of seismic threshold monitoring to assess an upper magnitude limit of a potential seismic event in a certain given geographical region. The method is based on ambient seismic background noise measurements at the individual IMS seismic stations as well as on global distance correction terms for body wave magnitudes, which are calculated using the seismic reflectivity method. From our investigations we conclude that a global detection threshold of around mb 4.0 can be achieved using only stations from the primary seismic network, a clear latitudinal dependence for the detection threshold can be observed between northern and southern hemisphere. Including the seismic stations being part of the auxiliary seismic IMS network results in a slight improvement of global detection capability. However, including wave arrivals from distances greater than 120 degrees, mainly PKP-wave arrivals, leads to a significant improvement in average global detection capability. In special this leads to an improvement of the detection threshold on the southern hemisphere. We further investigate the dependence of the detection capability on spatial (latitude and longitude) and temporal (time) parameters, as well as on parameters such as source type and percentage of operational IMS stations.

Some possible correlations between electro-magnetic emission and seismic activity during West Bohemia 2008 earthquake swarm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Kolář

2010-10-01

Full Text Available A potential link between electromagnetic emission (EME and seismic activity (SA has been the subject of scientific speculations for a long time. EME versus SA relations obtained during the 2008 earthquake swarm which occurred in West Bohemia are presented. First, a brief characterisation of the seismic region and then the EME recording method and data analysis will be described. No simple direct link between EME and SA intensity was observed, nevertheless a deeper statistical analysis indicates: (i slight increase of EME activity in the time interval 60 to 30 min before a seismic event with prevalent periods about 10 min, (ii some gap in EME activity approximately 2 h after the event, and (iii again a flat maximum about 4 h after the seismic events. These results qualitatively correspond with the observations from other seismically active regions (Fraser-Smith et al., 1990. The global decrease of EME activity correlating with the swarm activity decay was also observed. Due to the incomplete EME data and short observation time, these results are limited in reliability and are indicative only.

Could ionospheric variations be precursors of a seismic event? A short discussion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kouris, S.S. [Thessaloniki Univ., Thessaloniki (Greece). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering; Spalla, P. [Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerca Onde Elettromagnetiche, Florence (Italy); Zolesi, B. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome (Italy)

2001-04-01

A short review of published papers on the perturbations in the ionosphere due to seismogenic effects is reported. The method to correlate different classes of phenomena as ionospheric variations and subsequent seismic events is discussed. Even if the theoretical attempts to understand or to explain the electromagnetic phenomena in the ionosphere, as precursors of earthquakes are not satisfactory, the reported results encourage further investigations.

Long-term changes of the glacial seismicity: case study from Spitsbergen

Science.gov (United States)

Gajek, Wojciech; Trojanowski, Jacek; Malinowski, Michał

2016-04-01

Changes in global temperature balance have proved to have a major impact on the cryosphere, and therefore withdrawing glaciers are the symbol of the warming climate. Our study focuses on year-to-year changes in glacier-generated seismicity. We have processed 7-year long continuous seismological data recorded by the HSP broadband station located in the proximity of Hansbreen glacier (Hornsund, southern Spitsbergen), obtaining seismic activity distribution between 2008 and 2014. We developed a new fuzzy logic algorithm to distinguish between glacier- and non-glacier-origin events. The algorithm takes into account the frequency of seismic signal and the energy flow in certain time interval. Our research has revealed that the number of detected glacier-origin events over last two years has doubled. Annual events distribution correlates well with temperature and precipitation curves, illustrating characteristic yearlong behaviour of glacier seismic activity. To further support our observations, we have analysed 5-year long distribution of glacier-origin tremors detected in the vicinity of the Kronebreen glacier using KBS broadband station located in Ny-Ålesund (western Spitsbergen). We observe a steady increase in the number of detected events. detected each year, however not as significant as for Hornsund dataset.

Geothermal Induced Seismicity National Environmental Policy Act Review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Levine, Aaron L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cook, Jeffrey J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Beckers, Koenraad J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Young, Katherine R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-10-04

In 2016, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) contracted with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to assist the BLM in developing and building upon tools to better understand and evaluate induced seismicity caused by geothermal projects. This review of NEPA documents for four geothermal injection or EGS projects reveals the variety of approaches to analyzing and mitigating induced seismicity. With the exception of the Geysers, where induced seismicity has been observed and monitored for an extended period of time due to large volumes of water being piped in to recharge the hydrothermal reservoir, induced seismicity caused by geothermal projects is a relative new area of study. As this review highlights, determining the level of mitigation required for induced seismic events has varied based on project location, when the review took place, whether the project utilized the International Energy Agency or DOE IS protocols, and the federal agency conducting the review. While the NEPA reviews were relatively consistent for seismic monitoring and historical evaluation of seismic events near the project location, the requirements for public outreach and mitigation for induced seismic events once stimulation has begun varied considerably between the four projects. Not all of the projects were required to notify specific community groups or local government entities before beginning the project, and only one of the reviews specifically stated the project proponent would hold meetings with the public to answer questions or address concerns.

Field investigation of mining-induced seismicity on local geohydrology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsiung, S.M.; Chowdhury, A.H.; Philip, J.; Blake, W.

1993-01-01

Hydraulic response of the rock mass due to earthquakes is one of the concerns in the assessment of the long-term performance of a repository. Studies performed by other researchers indicated no systematic difference between natural earthquakes and mining-induced seismic events. The purpose of this field study at the Lucky Friday Mine is intended to obtain a better understanding regarding the local geohydrologic changes due to mining-induced seismicity and to evaluate analytical methods for simulation of these changes. Three saturated zones with faults and vein features were packed-off along a borehole drilled at approximately 20 degrees downward in a southerly direction from a depth about 1,737 m (5,700 ft) below surface for water pressure monitoring. The response of water pressure change to mine seismicity is found to be more pronounced in Zone 3, which contains the Lucky Friday Main Vein, than Zone 2, with the South Control Fault, and Zone 1, with the associated fractures parallel to the South Control Fault. The maximum observed pressure increase in Zone 3 was about 1.53 x 10 -2 MPa (2.22 psi) due to a seismic event of Richter drops in Zone 1 resulting from a number of seismic events are suspected to be related to slips along the associated fractures of the South Control Fault, or the South Control Fault itself, which initiated the seismic events. Water pressure increase in Zone 3 was found to be a function of event magnitude and distance

Seismic, satellite, and site observations of internal solitary waves in the NE South China Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Qunshu; Wang, Caixia; Wang, Dongxiao; Pawlowicz, Rich

2014-01-01

Internal solitary waves (ISWs) in the NE South China Sea (SCS) are tidally generated at the Luzon Strait. Their propagation, evolution, and dissipation processes involve numerous issues still poorly understood. Here, a novel method of seismic oceanography capable of capturing oceanic finescale structures is used to study ISWs in the slope region of the NE SCS. Near-simultaneous observations of two ISWs were acquired using seismic and satellite imaging, and water column measurements. The vertical and horizontal length scales of the seismic observed ISWs are around 50 m and 1–2 km, respectively. Wave phase speeds calculated from seismic observations, satellite images, and water column data are consistent with each other. Observed waveforms and vertical velocities also correspond well with those estimated using KdV theory. These results suggest that the seismic method, a new option to oceanographers, can be further applied to resolve other important issues related to ISWs. PMID:24948180

Mine-induced seismicity at East-Rand proprietary mines

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Milev, AM

1995-09-01

Full Text Available Mining results in seismic activity of varying intensity, from small micro seismic events to larger seismic events, often associated with significant seismic induced damages. This work deals with the understanding of the present seismicity...

The risks to miners, mines, and the public posed by large seismic events in the gold mining districts of South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Durrheim, RJ

2006-10-01

Full Text Available are incorporating the risks of seismicity in their disaster management plans, and Johannesburg is urged to do likewise. Some buildings are considered vulnerable to damage by large seismic events, posing safety and financial risks....

Local seismic network at the Olkiluoto site. Annual report 2002-2004

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saari, J. [Enprima Oy, Vantaa (Finland)

2005-09-15

In Olkiluoto, Posiva Oy has operated a local seismic network since February 2002. In the beginning, the network consisted of six seismic stations. Later, in June 2004, the seismic network was expanded with two new seismic stations. At that time started the excavation of the underground characterisation facility (the ONKALO) and the basic operation procedure was changed more suitable for the demands of the new situation. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The studies include both tectonic and excavation-induced microearthquakes. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the ONKALO. This report gives the results of microseismic monitoring during the years 2002 - 2004. Also the changes in the structure and the operation procedure of the network are described. The network has operated nearly continuously. The longest interruption occurred 16.-17.6.2004, when two new seismic stations were installed in the network and the operation procedure was changed. Altogether 757 events have been located in the Olkiluoto area. The magnitudes of the observed events range from ML = -3.5 to ML = 1.2. All of them are explosions or other artificial events. So far, none of the 757 observed events can be classified as microearthquakes. Five of the events have characteristics that make the origin of the recorded signal uncertain. They are quite unlikely microearthquakes, but they are not typical examples of artificial seismic signals either. When the experience and the data set of the Olkiluoto microearthquakes increase the identification of events will be more definite. Evidence of activity that would has influence on the safety of the ONKALO, have not found. (orig.)

Local seismic network at the Olkiluoto site. Annual report 2002-2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saari, J.

2005-09-01

In Olkiluoto, Posiva Oy has operated a local seismic network since February 2002. In the beginning, the network consisted of six seismic stations. Later, in June 2004, the seismic network was expanded with two new seismic stations. At that time started the excavation of the underground characterisation facility (the ONKALO) and the basic operation procedure was changed more suitable for the demands of the new situation. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The studies include both tectonic and excavation-induced microearthquakes. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the ONKALO. This report gives the results of microseismic monitoring during the years 2002 - 2004. Also the changes in the structure and the operation procedure of the network are described. The network has operated nearly continuously. The longest interruption occurred 16.-17.6.2004, when two new seismic stations were installed in the network and the operation procedure was changed. Altogether 757 events have been located in the Olkiluoto area. The magnitudes of the observed events range from ML = -3.5 to ML = 1.2. All of them are explosions or other artificial events. So far, none of the 757 observed events can be classified as microearthquakes. Five of the events have characteristics that make the origin of the recorded signal uncertain. They are quite unlikely microearthquakes, but they are not typical examples of artificial seismic signals either. When the experience and the data set of the Olkiluoto microearthquakes increase the identification of events will be more definite. Evidence of activity that would has influence on the safety of the ONKALO, have not found. (orig.)

6C polarization analysis - seismic direction finding in coherent noise, automated event identification, and wavefield separation

Science.gov (United States)

Schmelzbach, C.; Sollberger, D.; Greenhalgh, S.; Van Renterghem, C.; Robertsson, J. O. A.

2017-12-01

Polarization analysis of standard three-component (3C) seismic data is an established tool to determine the propagation directions of seismic waves recorded by a single station. A major limitation of seismic direction finding methods using 3C recordings, however, is that a correct propagation-direction determination is only possible if the wave mode is known. Furthermore, 3C polarization analysis techniques break down in the presence of coherent noise (i.e., when more than one event is present in the analysis time window). Recent advances in sensor technology (e.g., fibre-optical, magnetohydrodynamic angular rate sensors, and ring laser gyroscopes) have made it possible to accurately measure all three components of rotational ground motion exhibited by seismic waves, in addition to the conventionally recorded three components of translational motion. Here, we present an extension of the theory of single station 3C polarization analysis to six-component (6C) recordings of collocated translational and rotational ground motions. We demonstrate that the information contained in rotation measurements can help to overcome some of the main limitations of standard 3C seismic direction finding, such as handling multiple arrivals simultaneously. We show that the 6C polarisation of elastic waves measured at the Earth's free surface does not only depend on the seismic wave type and propagation direction, but also on the local P- and S-wave velocities just beneath the recording station. Using an adaptation of the multiple signal classification algorithm (MUSIC), we demonstrate how seismic events can univocally be identified and characterized in terms of their wave type. Furthermore, we show how the local velocities can be inferred from single-station 6C data, in addition to the direction angles (inclination and azimuth) of seismic arrivals. A major benefit of our proposed 6C method is that it also allows the accurate recovery of the wave type, propagation directions, and phase

Annual report on the KSRS seismic array operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jun, Myung-Soon; Jeon, Jeong-Soo; Kang, Ik-Bum [Korea Institute of Geology Mining and Materials, Taejon (KR)] (and others)

1999-12-01

Wonju KSRS (PS31) is one of the primary seismic stations under the IMS of CTBT. Korean NDC has been transmitting real time seismic data to IDC successfully during 1999. We have installed four elements seismo-acoustic array KISS(Korea Infrasound and Seismic Station) to detect and identify the seismic events in and around the Korean peninsula as a joint cooperation between KIGAM and SMU(Southern Methodist University). Continuous data from KSRS, KISS and other stations were automatically detected and analyzed using KEMS(Korea Earthquake Monitoring System) at KIGAM. KEMS has automatically detected and analyzed 1943 events between 1998.12.10 and 1999.12.22 and 876 events were reviewed by analyst and listed. Some electric poles used for data transmission inside the KSRS were eliminated and replaced to radio transmission. To increase the accuracy of earthquake observation velocity structure under the Korean peninsula was studied. To develop the Magnitude scale in Korea, the same approach which Richter applied in USA, 1935, was studied using Korean data. (author). 23 refs., 13 tabs., 89 figs.

Seismic monitoring of soft-rock landslides: the Super-Sauze and Valoria case studies

Science.gov (United States)

Tonnellier, Alice; Helmstetter, Agnès; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Schmittbuhl, Jean; Corsini, Alessandro; Joswig, Manfred

2013-06-01

This work focuses on the characterization of seismic sources observed in clay-shale landslides. Two landslides are considered: Super-Sauze (France) and Valoria (Italy). The two landslides are developed in reworked clay-shales but differ in terms of dimensions and displacement rates. Thousands of seismic signals have been identified by a small seismic array in spite of the high-seismic attenuation of the material. Several detection methods are tested. A semi-automatic detection method is validated by the comparison with a manual detection. Seismic signals are classified in three groups based on the frequency content, the apparent velocity and the differentiation of P and S waves. It is supposed that the first group of seismic signals is associated to shearing or fracture events within the landslide bodies, while the second group may correspond to rockfalls or debris flows. A last group corresponds to external earthquakes. Seismic sources are located with an automatic beam-forming location method. Sources are clustered in several parts of the landslide in agreement with geomorphological observations. We found that the rate of rockfall and fracture events increases after periods of heavy rainfall or snowmelt. The rate of microseismicity and rockfall activity is also positively correlated with landslide displacement rates. External earthquakes did not influence the microseismic activity or the landslide movement, probably because the earthquake ground motion was too weak to trigger landslide events during the observation periods.

Quasi-seismic scaling processes in sea ice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chmel, A; Smirnov, V N

2011-01-01

The cracking, shearing and stick–slip motions in sea ice are similar to those in fracturing geostructures. In this work, the fracture-related, quasi-seismic activity in the Arctic ice pack was monitored during a large-scale ice cover fragmentation that occurred in March 2008. This fragmentation resulted in the formation of a two-dimensional 'fault' clearly seen in satellite images. The energy distribution in elastic waves detected by seismic tiltmeters follows the power law in pre- and post-faulting periods. The power exponent decreases as the 'catastrophe' approaches, and exhibits a trend to restore its initial value after the large-scale perturbation. The detected fracture events are correlated in time in the sense of a scaling relation. A quiescent period (very low quasi-seismic activity) was observed before 'faulting'. A close similarity in scaling characteristics between the crustal seismicity and quasi-seismic activity observed in the ice pack is discussed from the viewpoint of the role of heterogeneity in the behavior of large-scale critical systems

Time dynamics in the point process modeling of seismicity of Aswan area (Egypt)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Telesca, Luciano; Mohamed, Abuo El-Ela Amin; ElGabry, Mohamed; El-hady, Sherif; Abou Elenean, Kamal M.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Time dynamics of shallow Aswan seismic events are time-clusterized. ► Super-Poissonian behavior characterizes shallow and deep events. ► Shallow seismicity shows a cycle at about 402 days. - Abstract: The seismicity observed in the Aswan area (Egypt) between 1986 and 2003 was deeply investigated by means of time-fractal methods. The time dynamics of the aftershock-depleted seismicity, investigated by means of the Allan Factor, reveals that the time-clustering behavior for events occurred at shallow depths (down to 12.5 km from the ground) as well as for events occurred at larger depths (from 15 km down to 27.5 km) does not depend on the ordering of the interevent times but mainly on the shape of the probability density functions of the interevent intervals. Moreover, deep seismicity is more compatible with a Poissonian dynamics than shallow seismicity that is definitely more super-Poissonian. Additionally, the set of shallow events shows a periodicity at about 402 days, which could be consistent with the cyclic loading/unloading operations of the Lake Naser Dam. Such findings contribute to better characterize the seismicity of the Aswan area, which is one of the most interesting water reservoirs in the world, featured by reservoir-induced earthquakes.

Leveraging Long-term Seismic Catalogs for Automated Real-time Event Classification

Science.gov (United States)

Linville, L.; Draelos, T.; Pankow, K. L.; Young, C. J.; Alvarez, S.

2017-12-01

We investigate the use of labeled event types available through reviewed seismic catalogs to produce automated event labels on new incoming data from the crustal region spanned by the cataloged events. Using events cataloged by the University of Utah Seismograph Stations between October, 2012 and June, 2017, we calculate the spectrogram for a time window that spans the duration of each event as seen on individual stations, resulting in 110k event spectrograms (50% local earthquakes examples, 50% quarry blasts examples). Using 80% of the randomized example events ( 90k), a classifier is trained to distinguish between local earthquakes and quarry blasts. We explore variations of deep learning classifiers, incorporating elements of convolutional and recurrent neural networks. Using a single-layer Long Short Term Memory recurrent neural network, we achieve 92% accuracy on the classification task on the remaining 20K test examples. Leveraging the decisions from a group of stations that detected the same event by using the median of all classifications in the group increases the model accuracy to 96%. Additional data with equivalent processing from 500 more recently cataloged events (July, 2017), achieves the same accuracy as our test data on both single-station examples and multi-station medians, suggesting that the model can maintain accurate and stable classification rates on real-time automated events local to the University of Utah Seismograph Stations, with potentially minimal levels of re-training through time.

Nonlinear Methodologies for Identifying Seismic Event and Nuclear Explosion Using Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bayes Classification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Longjun Dong

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The discrimination of seismic event and nuclear explosion is a complex and nonlinear system. The nonlinear methodologies including Random Forests (RF, Support Vector Machines (SVM, and Naïve Bayes Classifier (NBC were applied to discriminant seismic events. Twenty earthquakes and twenty-seven explosions with nine ratios of the energies contained within predetermined “velocity windows” and calculated distance are used in discriminators. Based on the one out cross-validation, ROC curve, calculated accuracy of training and test samples, and discriminating performances of RF, SVM, and NBC were discussed and compared. The result of RF method clearly shows the best predictive power with a maximum area of 0.975 under the ROC among RF, SVM, and NBC. The discriminant accuracies of RF, SVM, and NBC for test samples are 92.86%, 85.71%, and 92.86%, respectively. It has been demonstrated that the presented RF model can not only identify seismic event automatically with high accuracy, but also can sort the discriminant indicators according to calculated values of weights.

Observations of Near-Field Rotational Motions from Oklahoma Seismicity using Applied Technology Associate Sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Ringler, A. T.; Anthony, R. E.; Holland, A. A.; Wilson, D. C.

2017-12-01

Characterizing rotational motions from moderate-sized earthquakes in the near-field has the potential to improve earthquake engineering and seismic gradiometry by better characterizing the rotational component of the seismic wavefield, but has remained challenging due to the limited development of portable, low-noise rotational sensors. Here, we test Applied Technology Associate (ATA) Proto-Seismic Magnetohydrodynamic (SMHD) three-component rotational rate sensors at Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL) for self-noise and sensitivity before deploying them at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) temporary aftershock station OK38 in Waynoka, Oklahoma. The sensors have low self-noise levels below 2 Hz, making them ideal to record local rotations. From April 11, 2017 to June 6, 2017 we recorded the translational and rotational motions of over 155 earthquakes of ML≥2.0 within 2 degrees of the station. Using the recorded events we compare Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) with Peak Ground Rotation Rate (PG). For example, we measured a maximal PG of 0.00211 radians/s and 0.00186 radians/s for the horizontal components of the two rotational sensors during the Mwr=4.2 event on May 13, 2017 which was 0.5 km from that station. Similarly, our PG for the vertical rotational components were 0.00112 radians/s and 0.00085 radians/s. We also measured Peak Ground Rotations (PGω) as a function of seismic moment, as well as mean vertical Power Spectral Density (PSD) with mean horizontal PSD power levels. We compute apparent phase velocity directly from the rotational data, which may have may improve estimates of local site effects. Finally, by comparing various rotational and translational components we look at potential implications for estimating local event source parameters, which may help in identifying phenomena such as repeating earthquakes by using differences in the rotational components correlation.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Yemen

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakesh Mohindra

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A stochastic-event probabilistic seismic hazard model, which can be used further for estimates of seismic loss and seismic risk analysis, has been developed for the territory of Yemen. An updated composite earthquake catalogue has been compiled using the databases from two basic sources and several research publications. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define and characterize the regional earthquake source zones for Yemen. To capture all possible scenarios in the seismic hazard model, a stochastic event set has been created consisting of 15,986 events generated from 1,583 fault segments in the delineated seismic source zones. Distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA was calculated for all stochastic events considering epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion modeling using three suitable ground motion-prediction relationships, which were applied with equal weight. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps were created showing PGA and MSK seismic intensity at 10% and 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considering local soil site conditions. The resulting PGA for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period 475 years ranges from 0.2 g to 0.3 g in western Yemen and generally is less than 0.05 g across central and eastern Yemen. The largest contributors to Yemen’s seismic hazard are the events from the West Arabian Shield seismic zone.

Demonstration of NonLinear Seismic Soil Structure Interaction and Applicability to New System Fragility Seismic Curves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Nuclear Science and Technology

2014-09-01

Risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. Specifically, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). SPRAs are performed by convolving the seismic hazard (the frequency of certain magnitude events) with the seismic fragility (the conditional probability of failure of a structure, system, or component given the occurrence of earthquake ground motion). In this calculation, there are three main pieces to seismic risk quantification, 1) seismic hazard and nuclear power plants (NPPs) response to the hazard, fragility or capacity of structures, systems and components (SSC), and systems analysis. Figure 1 provides a high level overview of the risk quantification process. The focus of this research is on understanding and removing conservatism (when possible) in the quantification of seismic risk at NPPs.

An experimental overview of the seismic cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Spagnuolo, E.; Violay, M.; Passelegue, F. X.; Nielsen, S. B.; Di Toro, G.

2017-12-01

Earthquake nucleation is the last stage of the inter-seismic cycle where the fault surface evolves through the interplay of friction, healing, stress perturbations and strain events. Slip stability under rate-and state friction has been extensively discussed in terms of loading point velocity and equivalent fault stiffness, but fault evolution towards seismic runaway under complex loading histories (e.g. slow variations of tectonic stress, stress transfer from impulsive nearby seismic events) is not yet fully investigated. Nevertheless, the short term earthquake forecasting is based precisely on a relation between seismic productivity and loading history which remains up to date still largely unresolved. To this end we propose a novel experimental approach which avails of a closed loop control of the shear stress, a nominally infinite equivalent slip and transducers for continuous monitoring of acoustic emissions. This experimental simulation allows us to study the stress dependency and temporal evolution of spontaneous slip events occurring on a pre-existing fault subjected to different loading histories. The experimental fault has an initial roughness which mimic a population of randomly distributed asperities, which here are used as a proxy for patches which are either far or close to failure on an extended fault. Our observations suggest that the increase of shear stress may trigger either spontaneous slow slip (creep) or short-lived stick-slip bursts, eventually leading to a fast slip instability (seismic runaway) when slip rates are larger than a few cm/s. The event type and the slip rate are regulated at first order by the background shear stress whereas the ultimate strength of the entire fault is dominated by the number of asperities close to failure under a stress step. The extrapolation of these results to natural conditions might explain the plethora of events that often characterize seismic sequences. Nonetheless this experimental approach helps the

Pre-, Co-, and Post-Seismic Fault Slip in the Northern Chile Seismic Gap Associated with the April 1, 2014 (Mw 8.2) Pisagua Earthquake.

Science.gov (United States)

Simons, M.; Duputel, Z.; Fielding, E. J.; Galetzka, J.; Genrich, J. F.; Jiang, J.; Jolivet, R.; Kanamori, H.; Moore, A. W.; Ortega Culaciati, F. H.; Owen, S. E.; Riel, B. V.; Rivera, L. A.; Carrizo, D.; Cotte, N.; Jara, J.; Klotz, J.; Norabuena, E. O.; Ortega, I.; Socquet, A.; Samsonov, S. V.; Valderas Bermejo, M.

2014-12-01

The April 1, 2014 (Mw 8.2) Pisagua Earthquake occurred in Northern Chile, within a long recognized seismic gap in the Central Andean region that last experienced major megathrust events in 1868 and 1877. We built a continuous GPS network starting in 2005, with the ultimate goal of understanding the kinematics and dynamics of this portion of the subduction zone. Using observations from this network, as well as others in the region, combined with InSAR, seismic and tsunami observations, we obtain estimates of inter-seismic, co-seismic and initial post-seismic fault slip using an internally consistent Bayesian unregularized approach. We evaluate the extent of spatial overlap between regions of fault slip during this different time periods. Of particular interest to this event is the extent and nature of any geodetic evidence for transient slow fault slip preceding the Pisagua Earthquake mainshock. To this end, we compare daily and high rate GPS solutions, the former of which shows long period transient motion started about 15 days before the mainshock and with maximum registered amplitude of 14.2 +/- 2 [mm] at site PSGA. Contrary to published findings, we find that pre-seismic deformation seen by the GPS network can be explained as coseismic motion associated with the multiple foreshocks.

Source Characterization and Seismic Hazard Considerations for Hydraulic Fracture Induced Seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Bosman, K.; Viegas, G. F.; Baig, A. M.; Urbancic, T.

2015-12-01

Large microseismic events (M>0) have been shown to be generated during hydraulic fracture treatments relatively frequently. These events are a concern both from public safety and engineering viewpoints. Recent microseismic monitoring projects in the Horn River Basin have utilized both downhole and surface sensors to record events associated with hydraulic fracturing. The resulting hybrid monitoring system has produced a large dataset with two distinct groups of events: large events recorded by the surface network (0structures; small events are concentrated at reservoir depth. Differences in behavior have been observed between these two datasets, leading to conclusions of different underlying processes responsible for the recorded activity. Both datasets show very low seismic efficiency, implying slip weakening and possibly the presence of fluids in the source region. Reservoir events have shear-tensile source mechanisms ranging between tensile opening and tensile closing, and fracture orientations dominated by the rock fabric which are not always optimally oriented to the regional stress field. The observed source characteristics are expected for events driven by increased pore pressure and reduced friction due to lubrication. On average, deep events show higher stress drop, apparent stress, and rupture velocity than reservoir events. This reflects higher confining stresses with depth, and possibly the release of stored energy in the existing zone of weakness. Deep events are dominated by shear failures, but source characteristics are smaller than for naturally occurring tectonic earthquakes of similar magnitude. Most importantly from a seismic hazard perspective, large earthquakes associated with hydrofracing have lower stress drops than tectonic earthquakes, and thus produce smaller peak ground acceleration and less damage on surface. The largest event recorded in this dataset has a moment magnitude of +2.9 and was felt by field crews in the area. The response

Variations in the microseismic noise level observed at the Bucovina Seismic Array (BURAR)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghica, Daniela; Radulian, Mircea; Popa, Mihaela

2005-01-01

The microseismic noise level analysis for a seismic array is an essential step to accurately process the data recorded by the system. Basically, the observed background noise is a complex combination of natural and cultural sources as local geology, specific area activity (roads traffic, agricultural and industrial activities) or weather conditions.The understanding of the BURAR site noise characteristics is important for the array specific techniques (beamforming, f-k analysis), to apply the correct bandpass filtering, in order to obtain noise suppression and conservation of the 'true' seismic signal. The array monitoring potential of very small earthquakes and explosions will be enhanced, based on the best signal-to-noise ratio.The noise study at BURAR was carried out over one-year period, considering the noise power spectra in a 0.1 to 10 Hz frequency interval, for every 24 hours: 5 minutes during day and 5 minutes during night. Only short-period vertical sensors were considered. Systematic variations in the microseismic noise level at the BURAR site were observed:- diurnal: a decreasing of about 40% in night noise level at 1 Hz frequency; at 6 Hz frequency, the decreasing could reach 80-90% for 'non-winter' months (May to October); - seasonal: during the winter time, a lower noise level is observed, due to the restraining of the local specific activity (especially agriculture and farming) and of the road traffic. To summarize the level of microseismic noise observed at BURAR for one-year observations, a model curve for array noise level has been estimated, including upper and lower bounds of noise power density together with average spectrum. The BURAR noise model will be useful in the process of local site conditions estimation, by eliminating the noise contribution from the array recording. Also, the detection processing, phase identification and events location procedures will be significantly improved. (authors)

Third Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2008

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

2008-09-01

. The May 18 event, not reported as being felt on the Hanford site or causing any damage, was communicated to the PNNL Operations Center per HSAP communications procedures. The event is not considered to be significant with regard to site safety and not unprecedented given the site’s seismic history. The Hanford strong motion accelerometer (SMA) stations at the 200 East Area, 300 Area, and the 400 Area were triggered by the May 18 event. The reportable action level of 2% g for Hanford facilities is approximately 12 times larger than the peak acceleration (0.17%) observed at the 300 Area SMA station and no action was required.

Characterization of the seismic environment at the Sanford Underground Laboratory, South Dakota

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harms, J; Dorsher, S; Kandhasamy, S; Mandic, V [University of Minnesota, 116 Church Street SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States); Acernese, F; Barone, F [Universita degli Studi di Salerno, Fisciano (Saudi Arabia) (Italy); Bartos, I; Marka, S [Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 (United States); Beker, M; Van den Brand, J F J; Rabeling, D S [Nikhef, National Institute for Subatomic Physics, Science Park 105, 1098 XG Amsterdam (Netherlands); Christensen, N; Coughlin, M [Carleton College, Northfield, MN 55057 (United States); DeSalvo, R [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Heise, J; Trancynger, T [Sanford Underground Laboratory, 630 East Summit Street, Lead, SD 57754 (United States); Mueller, G [University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States); Naticchioni, L [Department of Physics, University of Rome ' Sapienza' , P.le Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Rome (Italy); O' Keefe, T [Saint Louis University, 3450 Lindell Blvd., St. Louis, MO 63103 (United States); Sajeva, A, E-mail: janosch@caltech.ed [Dipartimento di Fisica ' Enrico Fermi' , Universita di Pisa, Largo Bruno Pontecorvo, Pisa (Italy)

2010-11-21

An array of seismometers is being developed at the Sanford Underground Laboratory, the former Homestake mine, in South Dakota to study the properties of underground seismic fields and Newtonian noise, and to investigate the possible advantages of constructing a third-generation gravitational-wave detector underground. Seismic data were analyzed to characterize seismic noise and disturbances. External databases were used to identify sources of seismic waves: ocean-wave data to identify sources of oceanic microseisms and surface wind-speed data to investigate correlations with seismic motion as a function of depth. In addition, sources of events contributing to the spectrum at higher frequencies are characterized by studying the variation of event rates over the course of a day. Long-term observations of spectral variations provide further insight into the nature of seismic sources. Seismic spectra at three different depths are compared, establishing the 4100 ft level as a world-class low seismic-noise environment.

Cross-correlation analysis of 2012-2014 seismic events in Central-Northern Italy: insights from the geochemical monitoring network of Tuscany

Science.gov (United States)

Pierotti, Lisa; Facca, Gianluca; Gherardi, Fabrizio

2015-04-01

events (magnitude >3 up to 5.4) experienced in the Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna and Umbria regions during the period 2012-2014, and these geochemical anomalies. Changes in pH (decreasing) and PCO2 (increasing) are generally observed from a few months to a few weeks before the main shock. This trend has been recognized for the Parma quake of 27 January 2012 (M = 5.4), for the Pieve Fosciana quake of 13 January 2013 (M = 4.8), for the Garfagnana-Lunigiana seismic sequence started June 21, 2013 (Mmax = 5.2), for the Montefeltro seismic sequence started July 11, 2013 (Mmax = 3.9), for the Gubbio seismic sequences of July and December 2013 (Mmax = 3.9), for the Città di Castello seismic sequences of April 2013 and December 2013 (Mmax = 3.9), for the Casentino seismic sequence started October 17, 2014 (Mmax = 3.5), and for the Chianti seismic sequence started December 19, 2014 (Mmax = 4.1). These features suggest that the selected mineral springs can be considered as appropriate sites for the search of geochemical earthquake precursors. Further investigations focused on in-depth analysis of signals are currently in progress.

Event-by-Event Observables and Fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petersen, Hannah

2013-01-01

In this talk the status and open questions of the phenomenological description of all the stages of a heavy ion reaction are highlighted. Special emphasis is put on event-by-event fluctuations and associated observables. The first part is concentrated on high RHIC and LHC energies and the second part reviews the challenges for modeling heavy ion reactions at lower beam energies in a more realistic fashion. Overall, the main conclusion is that sophisticated theoretical dynamical approaches that describe many observables in the same framework are essential for the quantitative understanding of the properties of hot and dense nuclear matter

Methodology for seismic PSA of NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jirsa, P.

1999-09-01

A general methodology is outlined for seismic PSA (probabilistic safety assessment). The main objectives of seismic PSA include: description of the course of an event; understanding the most probable failure sequences; gaining insight into the overall probability of reactor core damage; identification of the main seismic risk contributors; identification of the range of peak ground accelerations contributing significantly to the plant risk; and comparison of the seismic risk with risks from other events. The results of seismic PSA are typically compared with those of internal PSA and of PSA of other external events. If the results of internal and external PSA are available, sensitivity studies and cost benefit analyses are performed prior to any decision regarding corrective actions. If the seismic PSA involves analysis of the containment, useful information can be gained regarding potential seismic damage of the containment. (P.A.)

Pn-waves Travel-time Anomaly beneath Taiwan from Dense Seismic Array Observations and its Possible Tectonic Implications

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Y. Y.; Huang, B. S.; Ma, K. F.; Hsieh, M. C.

2015-12-01

We investigated travel times of Pn waves, which are of great important for understanding the Moho structure in Taiwan region. Although several high quality tomographic studies had been carried out, observations of Pn waves are still the most comprehensive way to elucidate the Moho structure. Mapping the Moho structure of Taiwan had been a challenging due to the small spatial dimension of Taiwan island with two subduction systems. To decipher the tectonic structure and understanding of earthquake hazard, the island of Taiwan have been implemented by several high density seismic stations, including 71 short-period stations of Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network (CWBSN) and 42 broardband stations of Broadband Array in Taiwan for Seismology (BATS). High quality seismic records of these stations would be used to identify precise Pn-wave arrival times. After station-elevation correction, we measure the difference between the observed and theoretical Pn arrivals from the IASPI 91 model for each station. For correcting uncertainties of earthquake location and origin time, we estimate relative Pn anomaly, ΔtPn , between each station and a reference station. The pattern of ΔtPn reflects the depth anomaly of Moho beneath Taiwan. In general, Pn waves are commonly observed from shallow earthquake at epicentral distance larger than 120 km. We search the global catalog since 2005 and the criteria are M > 5.5, focal depth 150 km. The 12 medium earthquakes from north Luzon are considered for analysis. We choose a station, TWKB, in the most southern point of Taiwan as the reference station due to that all events are from the south. The results indicate obvious different patterns of ΔtPn from different back-azimuths. The ΔtPn pattern of the events in the first group from the south south-east indicates that the Pn arrivals delay suddenly when the Pn waves pass through the Central Range, suggesting the Moho becomes deep rapidly. However, we cannot recognize the same pattern when

Observations of rapid-fire event tremor at Lascar volcano, Chile

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Rademacher

1996-06-01

Full Text Available During the Proyecto de Investigaciòn Sismològica de la Cordillera Occidental (PISCO '94 in the Atacama desert of Northern Chile, a continuously recording broadband seismic station was installed to the NW of the currently active volcano, Lascar. For the month of April, 1994, an additional network of three, short period, three-component stations was deployed around the volcano to help discriminate its seismic signals from other local seismicity. During the deployment, the volcanic activity at Lascar appeared to be limited mainly to the emission of steam and SO2. Tremor from Lascar is a random, «rapid-fire» series of events with a wide range of amplitudes and a quasi-fractal structure. The tremor is generated by an ensemble of independent elementary sources clustered in the volcanic edifice. In the short-term, the excitation of the sources fluctuates strongly, while the long-term power spectrum is very stationary.

Evaluation of Multi Canister Overpack (MCO) Handling Machine Uplift Restraint for a Seismic Event During Repositioning Operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SWENSON, C.E.

2000-01-01

Insertion of the Multi-Canister Overpack (MCO) assemblies into the Canister Storage Building (CSB) storage tubes involves the use of the MCO Handling Machine (MHM). During MCO storage tube insertion operations, inadvertent movement of the MHM is prevented by engaging seismic restraints (''active restraints'') located adjacent to both the bridge and trolley wheels. During MHM repositioning operations, the active restraints are not engaged. When the active seismic restraints are not engaged, the only functioning seismic restraints are non-engageable (''passive'') wheel uplift restraints which function only if the wheel uplift is sufficient to close the nominal 0.5-inch gap at the uplift restraint interface. The MHM was designed and analyzed in accordance with ASME NOG-1-1995. The ALSTHOM seismic analysis reported seismic loads on the MHM uplift restraints and EDERER performed corresponding structural calculations to demonstrate structural adequacy of the seismic uplift restraint hardware. The ALSTHOM and EDERER calculations were performed for a parked MHM with the active seismic restraints engaged, resulting in uplift restraint loading only in the vertical direction. In support of development of the CSB Safety Analysis Report (SAR), an evaluation of the MHM seismic response was requested for the case where the active seismic restraints are not engaged. If a seismic event occurs during MHM repositioning operations, a moving contact at a seismic uplift restraint would introduce a friction load on the restraint in the direction of the movement. These potential horizontal friction loads on the uplift restraints were not included in the existing restraint hardware design calculations. One of the purposes of the current evaluation is to address the structural adequacy of the MHM seismic uplift restraints with the addition of the horizontal friction associated with MHM repositioning movements

Local seismic network at the Olkiluoto site. Annual report for 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saari, J.; Malm, M.

2012-06-01

This report gives the results of microseismic monitoring during 2011. Excavation of the underground characterisation facility called ONKALO started in 2004. Before that, in February 2002, Posiva Oy established a local seismic network of six stations on the island of Olkiluoto. After that the number of seismic stations has increased gradually. In 2011 Posiva's permanent seismic network consists of 15 seismic stations and 20 triaxial sensors. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The investigation area includes two target areas. The larger target area, called seismic semiregional area, covers the Olkiluoto Island and its surroundings. The purpose is to monitor explosions and tectonic earthquakes in regional scale inside that area. The smaller target area is called the seismic ONKALO block, which is a 2 km x 2 km x 2 km cube surrounding ONKALO. It is assumed that all the expected excavation induced events occur within this volume. At the moment the seismic ONKALO block includes ten seismic stations. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the construction of ONKALO. The configuration of the seismic network as well as the software packages applied in data processing and analyses have remained during the previous year. The design model of ONKALO and the brittle fault zone model of the Olkiluoto of the seismic visualization package Jdi were upgraded in 2011. The network has operated nearly continuously. There was a 14 minutes and 30 second long operation failure in December 2011. That was the first network operation failure in five years. Altogether 1223 events have been located in the Olkiluoto area, in the reported time period. Most of them (1098) are explosions that occurred inside the seismic semiregional area and especially inside the seismic ONKALO block (1064 events). The magnitudes of the observed explosions inside the semi

Local seismic network at the Olkiluoto site. Annual report for 2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saari, J.; Malm, M. [AF-Consult Oy, Espoo (Finland)

2012-06-15

This report gives the results of microseismic monitoring during 2011. Excavation of the underground characterisation facility called ONKALO started in 2004. Before that, in February 2002, Posiva Oy established a local seismic network of six stations on the island of Olkiluoto. After that the number of seismic stations has increased gradually. In 2011 Posiva's permanent seismic network consists of 15 seismic stations and 20 triaxial sensors. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The investigation area includes two target areas. The larger target area, called seismic semiregional area, covers the Olkiluoto Island and its surroundings. The purpose is to monitor explosions and tectonic earthquakes in regional scale inside that area. The smaller target area is called the seismic ONKALO block, which is a 2 km x 2 km x 2 km cube surrounding ONKALO. It is assumed that all the expected excavation induced events occur within this volume. At the moment the seismic ONKALO block includes ten seismic stations. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the construction of ONKALO. The configuration of the seismic network as well as the software packages applied in data processing and analyses have remained during the previous year. The design model of ONKALO and the brittle fault zone model of the Olkiluoto of the seismic visualization package Jdi were upgraded in 2011. The network has operated nearly continuously. There was a 14 minutes and 30 second long operation failure in December 2011. That was the first network operation failure in five years. Altogether 1223 events have been located in the Olkiluoto area, in the reported time period. Most of them (1098) are explosions that occurred inside the seismic semiregional area and especially inside the seismic ONKALO block (1064 events). The magnitudes of the observed explosions inside the

Seismic Search Engine: A distributed database for mining large scale seismic data

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y.; Vaidya, S.; Kuzma, H. A.

2009-12-01

The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the CTBTO collects terabytes worth of seismic measurements from many receiver stations situated around the earth with the goal of detecting underground nuclear testing events and distinguishing them from other benign, but more common events such as earthquakes and mine blasts. The International Data Center (IDC) processes and analyzes these measurements, as they are collected by the IMS, to summarize event detections in daily bulletins. Thereafter, the data measurements are archived into a large format database. Our proposed Seismic Search Engine (SSE) will facilitate a framework for data exploration of the seismic database as well as the development of seismic data mining algorithms. Analogous to GenBank, the annotated genetic sequence database maintained by NIH, through SSE, we intend to provide public access to seismic data and a set of processing and analysis tools, along with community-generated annotations and statistical models to help interpret the data. SSE will implement queries as user-defined functions composed from standard tools and models. Each query is compiled and executed over the database internally before reporting results back to the user. Since queries are expressed with standard tools and models, users can easily reproduce published results within this framework for peer-review and making metric comparisons. As an illustration, an example query is “what are the best receiver stations in East Asia for detecting events in the Middle East?” Evaluating this query involves listing all receiver stations in East Asia, characterizing known seismic events in that region, and constructing a profile for each receiver station to determine how effective its measurements are at predicting each event. The results of this query can be used to help prioritize how data is collected, identify defective instruments, and guide future sensor placements.

Seismological observations of glaciers dynamic on the Spitsbergen archipelago

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fedorov A. V.

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The paper provides a brief description of results of Spitsbergen glacier observations by the seismic method. The study has been carried out both by permanent and temporary stations data. Characteristic features of glacier-related seismic events have been shown. Main areas of glacier seismic activity on the Archipelago have been revealed. A detailed study of Horsund-fjord glacier activity has been carried out using local seismic station HSPB data. Temporal and spatial distributions of glacier-related events have been obtained for the area. Season variations in temporal distribution of the events have been found

Station Set Residual: Event Classification Using Historical Distribution of Observing Stations

Science.gov (United States)

Procopio, Mike; Lewis, Jennifer; Young, Chris

2010-05-01

Analysts working at the International Data Centre in support of treaty monitoring through the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization spend a significant amount of time reviewing hypothesized seismic events produced by an automatic processing system. When reviewing these events to determine their legitimacy, analysts take a variety of approaches that rely heavily on training and past experience. One method used by analysts to gauge the validity of an event involves examining the set of stations involved in the detection of an event. In particular, leveraging past experience, an analyst can say that an event located in a certain part of the world is expected to be detected by Stations A, B, and C. Implicit in this statement is that such an event would usually not be detected by Stations X, Y, or Z. For some well understood parts of the world, the absence of one or more "expected" stations—or the presence of one or more "unexpected" stations—is correlated with a hypothesized event's legitimacy and to its survival to the event bulletin. The primary objective of this research is to formalize and quantify the difference between the observed set of stations detecting some hypothesized event, versus the expected set of stations historically associated with detecting similar nearby events close in magnitude. This Station Set Residual can be quantified in many ways, some of which are correlated with the analysts' determination of whether or not the event is valid. We propose that this Station Set Residual score can be used to screen out certain classes of "false" events produced by automatic processing with a high degree of confidence, reducing the analyst burden. Moreover, we propose that the visualization of the historically expected distribution of detecting stations can be immediately useful as an analyst aid during their review process.

A Study of Small Magnitude Seismic Events During 1961-1989 on and near the Semipalatinsk Test Site, Kazakhstan

Science.gov (United States)

Khalturin, V. I.; Rautian, T. G.; Richards, P. G.

- Official Russian sources in 1996 and 1997 have stated that 340 underground nuclear tests (UNTs) were conducted during 1961-1989 at the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) in Eastern Kazakhstan. Only 271 of these nuclear tests appear to have been described with well-determined origin time, coordinates and magnitudes in the openly available technical literature. Thus, good open documentation has been lacking for 69 UNTs at STS.The main goal of our study was to provide detections, estimates of origin time and location, and magnitudes, for as many of these previously undocumented events as possible. We used data from temporary and permanent seismographic stations in the former USSR at distances from 500km to about 1500km from STS. As a result, we have been able to assign magnitude for eight previously located UNTs whose magnitude was not previously known. For 31 UNTs, we have estimated origin time an d assigned magnitude - and for 19 of these 31 we have obtained locations based on seismic signals. Of the remaining 30 poorly documented UNTs, 15 had announced yields that were less than one ton, and 13 occurred simultaneously with another test which was detected. There are only two UNTs, for which the announced yield exceeds one ton and we have been unable to find seismic signals.Most of the newly detected and located events were sub-kiloton. Their magnitudes range from 2.7 up to 5.1 (a multi-kiloton event on 1965 Feb. 4 that was often obscured at teleseismic stations by signals from an earthquake swarm in the Aleutians).For 17 small UNTs at STS, we compare the locations (with their uncertainties) that we had earlier determined in 1994 from analysis of regional seismic waves, with ground-truth information obtained in 1998. The average error of the seismically-determined locations is only about 5km. The ground-truth location is almost alw ays within the predicted small uncertainty of the seismically-determined location.Seismically-determined yield estimates are in good

Seismic observations of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska - 1989-2010 and a conceptual model of the Redoubt magmatic system

Science.gov (United States)

Power, John A.; Stihler, Scott D.; Chouet, Bernard A.; Haney, Matthew M.; Ketner, D.M.

2013-01-01

Seismic activity at Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, has been closely monitored since 1989 by a network of five to ten seismometers within 22 km of the volcano's summit. Major eruptions occurred in 1989-1990 and 2009 and were characterized by large volcanic explosions, episodes of lava dome growth and failure, pyroclastic flows, and lahars. Seismic features of the 1989-1990 eruption were 1) weak precursory tremor and a short, 23-hour-long, intense swarm of repetitive shallow long-period (LP) events centered 1.4 km below the crater floor, 2) shallow volcano-tectonic (VT) and hybrid earthquakes that separated early episodes of dome growth, 3) 13 additional swarms of LP events at shallow depths precursory to many of the 25 explosions that occurred over the more than 128 day duration of eruptive activity, and 4) a persistent cluster of VT earthquakes at 6 to 9 km depth. In contrast the 2009 eruption was preceded by a pronounced increase in deep-LP (DLP) events at lower crustal depths (25 to 38 km) that began in mid-December 2008, two months of discontinuous shallow volcanic tremor that started on January 23, 2009, a strong phreatic explosion on March 15, and a 58-hour-long swarm of repetitive shallow LP events. The 2009 eruption consisted of at least 23 major explosions between March 23 and April 5, again accompanied by shallow VT earthquakes, several episodes of shallow repetitive LP events and dome growth continuing until mid July. Increased VT earthquakes at 4 to 9 km depth began slowly in early April, possibly defining a mid-crustal magma source zone. Magmatic processes associated with the 2009 eruption seismically activated the same portions of the Redoubt magmatic system as the 1989-1990 eruption, although the time scales and intensity vary considerably among the two eruptions. The occurrence of precursory DLP events suggests that the 2009 eruption may have involved the rise of magma from lower crustal depths. Based on the evolution of seismicity during the 1989-1990 and

The Global Detection Capability of the IMS Seismic Network in 2013 Inferred from Ambient Seismic Noise Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Gaebler, P. J.; Ceranna, L.

2016-12-01

All nuclear explosions - on the Earth's surface, underground, underwater or in the atmosphere - are banned by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). As part of this treaty, a verification regime was put into place to detect, locate and characterize nuclear explosion testings at any time, by anyone and everywhere on the Earth. The International Monitoring System (IMS) plays a key role in the verification regime of the CTBT. Out of the different monitoring techniques used in the IMS, the seismic waveform approach is the most effective technology for monitoring nuclear underground testing and to identify and characterize potential nuclear events. This study introduces a method of seismic threshold monitoring to assess an upper magnitude limit of a potential seismic event in a certain given geographical region. The method is based on ambient seismic background noise measurements at the individual IMS seismic stations as well as on global distance correction terms for body wave magnitudes, which are calculated using the seismic reflectivity method. From our investigations we conclude that a global detection threshold of around mb 4.0 can be achieved using only stations from the primary seismic network, a clear latitudinal dependence for the detection thresholdcan be observed between northern and southern hemisphere. Including the seismic stations being part of the auxiliary seismic IMS network results in a slight improvement of global detection capability. However, including wave arrivals from distances greater than 120 degrees, mainly PKP-wave arrivals, leads to a significant improvement in average global detection capability. In special this leads to an improvement of the detection threshold on the southern hemisphere. We further investigate the dependence of the detection capability on spatial (latitude and longitude) and temporal (time) parameters, as well as on parameters such as source type and percentage of operational IMS stations.

Annual Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rohay, Alan C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Devary, Joseph L.; Hartshorn, Donald C.

2010-12-27

The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. During FY 2010, the Hanford Seismic Network recorded 873 triggers on the seismometer system, which included 259 seismic events in the southeast Washington area and an additional 324 regional and teleseismic events. There were 210 events determined to be local earthquakes relevant to the Hanford Site. One hundred and fifty-five earthquakes were detected in the vicinity of Wooded Island, located about eight miles north of Richland just west of the Columbia River. The Wooded Island events recorded this fiscal year were a continuation of the swarm events observed during fiscal year 2009 and reported in previous quarterly and annual reports (Rohay et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2009c, 2010a, 2010b, and 2010c). Most events were considered minor (coda-length magnitude [Mc] less than 1.0) with the largest event recorded on February 4, 2010 (3.0Mc). The estimated depths of the Wooded Island events are shallow (averaging approximately 1.5 km deep) placing the swarm within the Columbia River Basalt Group. Based upon the last two quarters (Q3 and Q4) data, activity at the Wooded Island

Synthetic seismicity for the San Andreas fault

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. N. Ward

1994-06-01

Full Text Available Because historical catalogs generally span only a few repetition intervals of major earthquakes, they do not provide much constraint on how regularly earthquakes recur. In order to obtain better recurrence statistics and long-term probability estimates for events M ? 6 on the San Andreas fault, we apply a seismicity model to this fault. The model is based on the concept of fault segmentation and the physics of static dislocations which allow for stress transfer between segments. Constraints are provided by geological and seismological observations of segment lengths, characteristic magnitudes and long-term slip rates. Segment parameters slightly modified from the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities allow us to reproduce observed seismicity over four orders of magnitude. The model yields quite irregular earthquake recurrence patterns. Only the largest events (M ? 7.5 are quasi-periodic; small events cluster. Both the average recurrence time and the aperiodicity are also a function of position along the fault. The model results are consistent with paleoseismic data for the San Andreas fault as well as a global set of historical and paleoseismic recurrence data. Thus irregular earthquake recurrence resulting from segment interaction is consistent with a large range of observations.

Empirical Ground Motion Characterization of Induced Seismicity in Alberta and Oklahoma

Science.gov (United States)

Novakovic, M.; Atkinson, G. M.; Assatourians, K.

2017-12-01

We develop empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for ground motions from induced earthquakes in Alberta and Oklahoma following the stochastic-model-based method of Atkinson et al. (2015 BSSA). The Oklahoma ground-motion database is compiled from over 13,000 small to moderate seismic events (M 1 to 5.8) recorded at 1600 seismic stations, at distances from 1 to 750 km. The Alberta database is compiled from over 200 small to moderate seismic events (M 1 to 4.2) recorded at 50 regional stations, at distances from 30 to 500 km. A generalized inversion is used to solve for regional source, attenuation and site parameters. The obtained parameters describe the regional attenuation, stress parameter and site amplification. Resolving these parameters allows for the derivation of regionally-calibrated GMPEs that can be used to compare ground motion observations between waste water injection (Oklahoma) and hydraulic fracture induced events (Alberta), and further compare induced observations with ground motions resulting from natural sources (California, NGAWest2). The derived GMPEs have applications for the evaluation of hazards from induced seismicity and can be used to track amplitudes across the regions in real time, which is useful for ground-motion-based alerting systems and traffic light protocols.

Seismic motions from project Rulison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loux, P C [Environmental Research Corp., Alexandria, VA (United States)

1970-05-15

In the range from a few to a few hundred km, seismic measurements from the Rulison event are shown and compared with experimentally and analytically derived pre-event estimates. Seismograms, peak accelerations, and response spectra are given along with a description of the associated geologic environment. Techniques used for the pre-event estimates are identified with emphasis on supportive data and on Rulison results. Of particular interest is the close-in seismic frequency content which is expected to contain stronger high frequency components. This higher frequency content translates into stronger accelerations within the first tens of km, which in turn affect safety preparations. Additionally, the local geologic structure at nearby population centers must be considered. Pre-event reverse profile refraction surveys are used to delineate the geology at Rifle, Rulison, Grand Valley, and other sites. The geologic parameters are then used as input to seismic amplification models which deliver estimates of local resonant frequencies. Prediction of such resonances allows improved safety assurance against seismic effects hazards. (author)

Nonlinear acoustic/seismic waves in earthquake processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, Paul A.

2012-01-01

Nonlinear dynamics induced by seismic sources and seismic waves are common in Earth. Observations range from seismic strong ground motion (the most damaging aspect of earthquakes), intense near-source effects, and distant nonlinear effects from the source that have important consequences. The distant effects include dynamic earthquake triggering—one of the most fascinating topics in seismology today—which may be elastically nonlinearly driven. Dynamic earthquake triggering is the phenomenon whereby seismic waves generated from one earthquake trigger slip events on a nearby or distant fault. Dynamic triggering may take place at distances thousands of kilometers from the triggering earthquake, and includes triggering of the entire spectrum of slip behaviors currently identified. These include triggered earthquakes and triggered slow, silent-slip during which little seismic energy is radiated. It appears that the elasticity of the fault gouge—the granular material located between the fault blocks—is key to the triggering phenomenon.

Third Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

2009-09-30

The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. The Hanford Seismic Network recorded 771 local earthquakes during the third quarter of FY 2009. Nearly all of these earthquakes were detected in the vicinity of Wooded Island, located about eight miles north of Richland just west of the Columbia River. The Wooded Island events recorded this quarter is a continuation of the swarm events observed during the January – March 2009 time period and reported in the previous quarterly report (Rohay et al, 2009). The frequency of Wooded Island events has subsided with 16 events recorded during June 2009. Most of the events were considered minor (magnitude (Mc) less than 1.0) with 25 events in the 2.0-3.0 range. The estimated depths of the Wooded Island events are shallow (averaging less than 1.0 km deep) with a maximum depth estimated at 2.2 km. This places the Wooded Island events within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The low magnitude of the Wooded Island events has made them undetectable to all but local area residents. However, some Hanford employees working within a few miles of the area of highest activity

Non-seismic tsunamis: filling the forecast gap

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, C. W.; Titov, V. V.; Spillane, M. C.

2015-12-01

Earthquakes are the generation mechanism in over 85% of tsunamis. However, non-seismic tsunamis, including those generated by meteorological events, landslides, volcanoes, and asteroid impacts, can inundate significant area and have a large far-field effect. The current National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tsunami forecast system falls short in detecting these phenomena. This study attempts to classify the range of effects possible from these non-seismic threats, and to investigate detection methods appropriate for use in a forecast system. Typical observation platforms are assessed, including DART bottom pressure recorders and tide gauges. Other detection paths include atmospheric pressure anomaly algorithms for detecting meteotsunamis and the early identification of asteroids large enough to produce a regional hazard. Real-time assessment of observations for forecast use can provide guidance to mitigate the effects of a non-seismic tsunami.

Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

1987-01-01

The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

Complex source mechanisms of mining-induced seismic events - implications for surface effects

Science.gov (United States)

Orlecka-Sikora, B.; Cesca, S.; Lasocki, S.; Rudzinski, L.; Lizurek, L.; Wiejacz, P.; Urban, P.; kozlowska, M.

2012-04-01

The seismicity of Legnica-Głogów Copper District (LGCD) is induced by mining activities in three mines: Lubin, Rudna and Polkowice-Sieroszowice. Ground motion caused by strong tremors might affect local infrastructure. "Żelazny Most" tailings pond, the biggest structure of this type in Europe, is here under special concern. Due to surface objects protection, Rudna Mine has been running ground motion monitoring for several years. From June 2010 to June 2011 unusually strong and extensive surface impact has been observed for 6 mining tremors induced in one of Rudna mining sections. The observed peak ground acceleration (PGA) for both horizontal and vertical component were in or even beyond 99% confidence interval for prediction. The aim of this paper is analyze the reason of such unusual ground motion. On the basis of registrations from Rudna Mine mining seismological network and records from Polish Seismological Network held by the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences (IGF PAN), the source mechanisms of these 6 tremors were calculated using a time domain moment tensor inversion. Furthermore, a kinematic analysis of the seismic source was performed, in order to determine the rupture planes orientations and rupture directions. These results showed that in case of the investigated tremors, point source models and shear fault mechanisms, which are most often assumed in mining seismology, are invalid. All analyzed events indicate extended sources with non-shear mechanism. The rapture planes have small dip angles and the rupture starts at the tremors hypocenter and propagates in the direction opposite to the plane dip. The tensional component plays here also big role. These source mechanisms well explain such observed strong ground motion, and calculated synthetic PGA values well correlates with observed ones. The relationship between mining tremors were also under investigation. All subsequent tremors occurred in the area of increased stress due to

Structure of the Suasselkä postglacial fault in northern Finland obtained by analysis of local events and ambient seismic noise

Science.gov (United States)

Afonin, Nikita; Kozlovskaya, Elena; Kukkonen, Ilmo; Dafne/Finland Working Group

2017-04-01

Understanding the inner structure of seismogenic faults and their ability to reactivate is particularly important in investigating the continental intraplate seismicity regime. In our study we address this problem using analysis of local seismic events and ambient seismic noise recorded by the temporary DAFNE array in the northern Fennoscandian Shield. The main purpose of the DAFNE/FINLAND passive seismic array experiment was to characterize the present-day seismicity of the Suasselkä postglacial fault (SPGF), which was proposed as one potential target for the DAFNE (Drilling Active Faults in Northern Europe) project. The DAFNE/FINLAND array comprised an area of about 20 to 100 km and consisted of eight short-period and four broadband three-component autonomous seismic stations installed in the close vicinity of the fault area. The array recorded continuous seismic data during September 2011-May 2013. Recordings of the array have being analysed in order to identify and locate natural earthquakes from the fault area and to discriminate them from the blasts in the Kittilä gold mine. As a result, we found a number of natural seismic events originating from the fault area, which proves that the fault is still seismically active. In order to study the inner structure of the SPGF we use cross-correlation of ambient seismic noise recorded by the array. Analysis of azimuthal distribution of noise sources demonstrated that during the time interval under consideration the distribution of noise sources is close to the uniform one. The continuous data were processed in several steps including single-station data analysis, instrument response removal and time-domain stacking. The data were used to estimate empirical Green's functions between pairs of stations in the frequency band of 0.1-1 Hz and to calculate corresponding surface wave dispersion curves. The S-wave velocity models were obtained as a result of dispersion curve inversion. The results suggest that the area of

Detection of invisible and crucial events: from seismic fluctuations to the war against terrorism

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Allegrini, Paolo; Fronzoni, Leone; Grigolini, Paolo; Latora, Vito; Mega, Mirko S.; Palatella, Luigi E-mail: luigi.palatella@df.unipi.it; Rapisarda, Andrea; Vinciguerra, Sergio

2004-04-01

We argue that the recent discovery of the non-Poissonian statistics of the seismic main-shocks is a special case of a more general approach to the detection of the distribution of the time increments between one crucial but invisible event and the next. We make the conjecture that the proposed approach can be applied to the analysis of terrorist network with significant benefits for the Intelligence Community.

Recent results of seismic isolation study in CRIEPI: Tests on seismic isolation elements, vibration tests and observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishida, Katsuhiko; Shiojiri, Hiroo; Mazda, Taiji; Ohtori, Yasuki; Aoyagi, Sakae

1992-01-01

Seismic isolation is expected to be effective in raising reliability during earthquake, reducing cost, enlarging and promoting the design standardization of electric power facilities. In Japan, it has been applied to several buildings. However it is considered that more research is needed to verify the reliability and effectiveness of seismic isolation for fast breeder reactors. In the preliminary study of isolation concepts for FBRs the horizontal base isolation of buildings was investigated in detail. The laminated rubber bearings were considered to be most suitable isolation system. Tests on large scale models of rubber bearing and vibration test of base isolation system have been conducted as well as the earthquake response observation of isolated buildings were conducted

Recent results of seismic isolation study in CRIEPI: Tests on seismic isolation elements, vibration tests and observations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ishida, Katsuhiko; Shiojiri, Hiroo; Mazda, Taiji; Ohtori, Yasuki [Abiko Research Laboratory, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (Japan); Aoyagi, Sakae [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (Japan)

1992-07-01

Seismic isolation is expected to be effective in raising reliability during earthquake, reducing cost, enlarging and promoting the design standardization of electric power facilities. In Japan, it has been applied to several buildings. However it is considered that more research is needed to verify the reliability and effectiveness of seismic isolation for fast breeder reactors. In the preliminary study of isolation concepts for FBRs the horizontal base isolation of buildings was investigated in detail. The laminated rubber bearings were considered to be most suitable isolation system. Tests on large scale models of rubber bearing and vibration test of base isolation system have been conducted as well as the earthquake response observation of isolated buildings were conducted.

A dense microseismic monitoring network in Korea for uncovering relationship between seismic activity and neotectonic features

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, T.; Lee, J. M.; Kim, W.; Jo, B. G.; Chung, T.; Choi, S.

2012-12-01

A few tens of surface traces indicating movements in Quaternary were found in the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula. Following both the geological and engineering definitions, those features are classified into "active", in geology, or "capable", in engineering, faults. On the other hand, the present-day seismicity of the region over a couple of thousand years is indistinguishable on the whole with the rest of the Korean Peninsula. It is therefore of great interest whether the present seismic activity is related to the neotectonic features or not. Either of conclusions is not intuitive in terms of the present state of seismic monitoring network in the region. Thus much interest in monitoring seismicity to provide an improved observation resolution and to lower the event-detection threshold has increased with many observations of the Quaternary faults. We installed a remote, wireless seismograph network which is composed of 20 stations with an average spacing of 10 km. Each station is equipped with a three-component Trillium Compact seismometer and Taurus digitizer. Instrumentation and analysis advancements are now offering better tools for this monitoring. This network is scheduled to be in operation over about one and a half year. In spite of the relatively short observation period, we expect that the high density of the network enables us to monitor seismic events with much lower magnitude threshold compared to the preexisting seismic network in the region. Following the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, the number of events with low magnitude is logarithmically larger than that with high magnitude. Following this rule, we can expect that many of microseismic events may reveal behavior of their causative faults, if any. We report the results of observation which has been performed over a year up to now.

New seismic array solution for earthquake observations and hydropower plant health monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Antonovskaya, Galina N.; Kapustian, Natalya K.; Moshkunov, Alexander I.; Danilov, Alexey V.; Moshkunov, Konstantin A.

2017-09-01

We present the novel fusion of seismic safety monitoring data of the hydropower plant in Chirkey (Caucasus Mountains, Russia). This includes new hardware solutions and observation methods, along with technical limitations for three types of applications: (a) seismic monitoring of the Chirkey reservoir area, (b) structure monitoring of the dam, and (c) monitoring of turbine vibrations. Previous observations and data processing for health monitoring do not include complex data analysis, while the new system is more rational and less expensive. The key new feature of the new system is remote monitoring of turbine vibration. A comparison of the data obtained at the test facilities and by hydropower plant inspection with remote sensors enables early detection of hazardous hydrodynamic phenomena.

Time-Independent Annual Seismic Rates, Based on Faults and Smoothed Seismicity, Computed for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Murru, M.; Falcone, G.; Taroni, M.; Console, R.

2017-12-01

In 2015 the Italian Department of Civil Protection, started a project for upgrading the official Italian seismic hazard map (MPS04) inviting the Italian scientific community to participate in a joint effort for its realization. We participated providing spatially variable time-independent (Poisson) long-term annual occurrence rates of seismic events on the entire Italian territory, considering cells of 0.1°x0.1° from M4.5 up to M8.1 for magnitude bin of 0.1 units. Our final model was composed by two different models, merged in one ensemble model, each one with the same weight: the first one was realized by a smoothed seismicity approach, the second one using the seismogenic faults. The spatial smoothed seismicity was obtained using the smoothing method introduced by Frankel (1995) applied to the historical and instrumental seismicity. In this approach we adopted a tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation with a b-value fixed to 1 and a corner magnitude estimated with the bigger events in the catalogs. For each seismogenic fault provided by the Database of the Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), we computed the annual rate (for each cells of 0.1°x0.1°) for magnitude bin of 0.1 units, assuming that the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault are distributed according to the same tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation of the smoothed seismicity model. The annual rate for the final model was determined in the following way: if the cell falls within one of the seismic sources, we merge the respective value of rate determined by the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault and the value of the smoothed seismicity model with the same weight; if instead the cells fall outside of any seismic source we considered the rate obtained from the spatial smoothed seismicity. Here we present the final results of our study to be used for the new Italian seismic hazard map.

Post-seismic velocity changes following the 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield earthquake, New Zealand, revealed by ambient seismic field analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Heckels, R. EG; Savage, M. K.; Townend, J.

2018-05-01

Quantifying seismic velocity changes following large earthquakes can provide insights into fault healing and reloading processes. This study presents temporal velocity changes detected following the 2010 September Mw 7.1 Darfield event in Canterbury, New Zealand. We use continuous waveform data from several temporary seismic networks lying on and surrounding the Greendale Fault, with a maximum interstation distance of 156 km. Nine-component, day-long Green's functions were computed for frequencies between 0.1 and 1.0 Hz for continuous seismic records from immediately after the 2010 September 04 earthquake until 2011 January 10. Using the moving-window cross-spectral method, seismic velocity changes were calculated. Over the study period, an increase in seismic velocity of 0.14 ± 0.04 per cent was determined near the Greendale Fault, providing a new constraint on post-seismic relaxation rates in the region. A depth analysis further showed that velocity changes were confined to the uppermost 5 km of the subsurface. We attribute the observed changes to post-seismic relaxation via crack healing of the Greendale Fault and throughout the surrounding region.

Properties of Repetitive Long-Period Seismicity at Villarrica Volcano, Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, J.; Waite, G. P.; Palma, J.; Johnson, J. B.

2011-12-01

signals affiliated with the repetitive seismic signals do not seem directly related to the continuous, well-correlated acoustic tremor observed both at the vent and at roughly 6 km away from small-aperture acoustic arrays (also reported by other groups in 2009, 2010). We also correlate the acoustic and repetitive seismic signals with high time resolution (~1 Hz sampling rate), sulfur dioxide emissions measured with an ultraviolet camera. Because a subset of stations operated during both 2010 and 2011, we could tie events from both deployments to generate a single stacked event at all 17 stations. We will present results of finite-difference modeling of this event stack using a simple homogeneous velocity structure.

Third Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2005

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reidel, Steve P.; Rohay, Alan C.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Sweeney, Mark D.

2005-09-01

Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. Hanford Seismic Monitoring also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 41 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. For the Hanford Seismic Network, there were 337 triggers during the third quarter of fiscal year 2005. Of these triggers, 20 were earthquakes within the Hanford Seismic Network. The largest earthquake within the Hanford Seismic Network was a magnitude 1.3 event May 25 near Vantage, Washington. During the third quarter, stratigraphically 17 (85%) events occurred in the Columbia River basalt (approximately 0-5 km), no events in the pre-basalt sediments (approximately 5-10 km), and three (15%) in the crystalline basement (approximately 10-25 km). During the first quarter, geographically five (20%) earthquakes occurred in swarm areas, 10 (50%) earthquakes were associated with a major geologic structure, and 5 (25%) were classified as random events.

Historical and Paleo Events as an input for Seismic And Associated Natural Hazard Assessment of Javakheti highland (South Georgia)

Science.gov (United States)

Elashvili, M.; Javakhishvili, Z.; Godoladze, T.; Karakhanyan, A.; Sukhishvili, L.; Nikolaeva, E.; Sokhadze, G.; Avanesyan, M.

2012-12-01

of historical earthquakes of 1899 and 1089, as well as Archaeo-Seismological site along the Javakheti seismic fault will be presented. History on Natural Disasters in the region can be complemented by Bertakana Paleo-Landslide, to be discussed separately as one of the mega events in the Area. The mentioned events are considered as an important input for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Javakheti Region.

Observation of ground deformation associated with hydraulic fracturing and seismicity in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Kubanek, J.; Liu, Y.; Harrington, R. M.; Samsonov, S.

2017-12-01

In North America, the number of induced earthquakes related to fluid injection due to the unconventional recovery of oil and gas resources has increased significantly within the last five years. Recent studies demonstrate that InSAR is an effective tool to study surface deformation due to large-scale wastewater injection, and highlight the value of surface deformation monitoring with respect to understanding evolution of pore pressure and stress at depth - vital parameters to forecast fault reactivation, and thus, induced earthquakes. In contrast to earthquakes related to the injection of large amounts of wastewater, seismic activity related to the hydraulic fracturing procedure itself was, until recently, considered to play a minor role without significant hazard. In the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), however, Mw>4 earthquakes have recently led to temporary shutdown of industrial injection activity, causing multi-million dollar losses to operators and raising safety concerns with the local population. Recent studies successfully utilize seismic data and modeling to link seismic activity with hydraulic fracturing in the WCSB. Although the study of surface deformation is likely the most promising tool for monitoring integrity of a well and to derive potential signatures prior to moderate or large induced events, InSAR has, to date, not been utilized to detect surface deformation related to hydraulic fracturing and seismicity. We therefore plan to analyze time-series of SAR data acquired between 1991 to present over two target sites in the WCSB that will enable the study of long- and short-term deformation. Since the conditions for InSAR are expected to be challenging due to spatial and temporal decorrelation, we have designed corner reflectors that will be installed at one target site to improve interferometric performance. The corner reflectors will be collocated with broadband seismometers and Trimble SeismoGeodetic Systems that simultaneously measure

Robust satellite techniques for remote sensing of seismically active areas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tramutoli, V; Di Bello, G [Potenza Univ., Potenza (Italy). Dipt. di Ingegneria e Fisica dell' Ambiente; Pergola, N; Piscitelli, S [Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Metodologie Avanzate di Analisi Ambientale, Potenza (Italy)

2001-04-01

Several satellite techniques have been recently proposed to remotely map seismically active zones and to monitor geophysical phenomena possibly associated with earthquakes. Even if questionable in terms of their effective applicability, all these techniques highlight as the major problem, still to be overcome, the high number of natural factors (independent of any seismic activity) whose variable contributions to the investigated signal can be so high as to completely mask (or simulate) the space-time anomaly possibly associated to the seismic event under study. A robust approach (RAT) has recently been proposed (and successfully applied in the field of the monitoring of the major environmental risks) which, better than other methods, seems suitable for recognising space-time anomalies in the satellite observation field also in the presence of highly variable contributions from atmospheric (transmittance), surface (emissivity and morphology) and observational (time/season, but also solar and satellite zenithal angles) conditions. This work presents the first preliminary results, based on several years of NOA A/AVHRR observations, regarding its extension to satellite monitoring of thermal anomalies possibly associated to seismically active areas of Southern Italy. The main merits of this approach are its robustness against the possibility of false events detection (specially important for this kind of applications) as well as its intrinsic exportability not only to different geographic areas but also to different satellite instrumental packages.

Robust satellite techniques for remote sensing of seismically active areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Piscitelli

2001-06-01

Full Text Available Several satellite techniques have been recently proposed to remotely map seismically active zones and to monitor geophysical phenomena possibly associated with earthquakes. Even if questionable in terms of their effective applicability, all these techniques highlight as the major problem, still to be overcome, the high number of natural factors (independent of any seismic activity whose variable contributions to the investigated signal can be so high as to completely mask (or simulate the space-time anomaly possibly associated to the seismic event under study. A robust approach (RAT has recently been proposed (and successfully applied in the field of the monitoring of the major environmental risks which, better than other methods, seems suitable for recognising space-time anomalies in the satellite observational field also in the presence of highly variable contributions from atmospheric (transmittance, surface (emissivity and morphology and observational (time/season, but also solar and satellite zenithal angles conditions.This work presents the first preliminary results, based on several years of NOAA/AVHRR observations, regarding its extension to satellite monitoring of thermal anomalies possibly associated to seismically active areas of Southern Italy. The main merits of this approach are its robustness against the possibility of false events detection (specially important for this kind of applications as well as its intrinsic exportability not only to different geographic areas but also to different satellite instrumental packages.

An unsupervised learning algorithm: application to the discrimination of seismic events and quarry blasts in the vicinity of Istanbul

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. S. Kuyuk

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The results of the application of an unsupervised learning (neural network approach comprising a Self Organizing Map (SOM, to distinguish micro-earthquakes from quarry blasts in the vicinity of Istanbul, Turkey, are presented and discussed. The SOM is constructed as a neural classifier and complementary reliability estimator to distinguish seismic events, and was employed for varying map sizes. Input parameters consisting of frequency and time domain data (complexity, spectral ratio, S/P wave amplitude peak ratio and origin time of events extracted from the vertical components of digital seismograms were estimated as discriminants for 179 (1.8 < M_d < 3.0 local events. The results show that complexity and amplitude peak ratio parameters of the observed velocity seismogram may suffice for a reliable discrimination, while origin time and spectral ratio were found to be fuzzy and misleading classifiers for this problem. The SOM discussed here achieved a discrimination reliability that could be employed routinely in observatory practice; however, about 6% of all events were classified as ambiguous cases. This approach was developed independently for this particular classification, but it could be applied to different earthquake regions.

Regional passive seismic monitoring reveals dynamic glacier activity on Spitsbergen, Svalbard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Köhler

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Dynamic glacier activity is increasingly observed through passive seismic monitoring. We analysed near-regional-scale seismicity on the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard to identify seismic icequake signals and to study their spatial–temporal distribution within the 14-year period from 2000 until 2013. This is the first study that uses seismic data recorded on permanent broadband stations to detect and locate icequakes in different regions of Spitsbergen, the main island of the archipelago. A temporary local seismic network and direct observations of glacier calving and surging were used to identify icequake sources. We observed a high number of icequakes with clear spectral peaks between 1 and 8 Hz in different parts of Spitsbergen. Spatial clusters of icequakes could be associated with individual grounded tidewater glaciers and exhibited clear seasonal variability each year with more signals observed during the melt season. Locations at the termini of glaciers, and correlation with visual calving observations in situ at Kronebreen, a glacier in the Kongsfjorden region, show that these icequakes were caused dominantly by calving. Indirect evidence for glacier surging through increased calving seismicity was found in 2003 at Tunabreen, a glacier in central Spitsbergen. Another type of icequake was observed in the area of the Nathorstbreen glacier system. Seismic events occurred upstream of the glacier within a short time period between January and May 2009 during the initial phase of a major glacier surge. This study is the first step towards the generation and implementation of an operational seismic monitoring strategy for glacier dynamics in Svalbard.

Third Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

2010-09-29

The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. The Hanford Seismic Network recorded 23 local earthquakes during the third quarter of FY 2010. Sixteen earthquakes were located at shallow depths (less than 4 km), five earthquakes at intermediate depths (between 4 and 9 km), most likely in the pre-basalt sediments, and two earthquakes were located at depths greater than 9 km, within the basement. Geographically, twelve earthquakes were located in known swarm areas, 3 earthquakes occurred near a geologic structure (Saddle Mountain anticline), and eight earthquakes were classified as random events. The highest magnitude event (3.0 Mc) was recorded on May 8, 2010 at depth 3.0 km with epicenter located near the Saddle Mountain anticline. Later in the quarter (May 24 and June 28) two additional earthquakes were also recorded nearly at the same location. These events are not considered unusual in that earthquakes have been previously recorded at this location, for example, in October 2006 (Rohay et al; 2007). Six earthquakes were detected in the vicinity of Wooded Island, located about eight miles north of Richland just

Towards Quantification of Glacier Dynamic Ice Loss through Passive Seismic Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Köhler, A.; Nuth, C.; Weidle, C.; Schweitzer, J.; Kohler, J.; Buscaino, G.

2015-12-01

Global glaciers and ice caps loose mass through calving, while existing models are currently not equipped to realistically predict dynamic ice loss. This is mainly because long-term continuous calving records, that would help to better understand fine scale processes and key climatic-dynamic feedbacks between calving, climate, terminus evolution and marine conditions, do not exist. Combined passive seismic/acoustic strategies are the only technique able to capture rapid calving events continuously, independent of daylight or meteorological conditions. We have produced such a continuous calving record for Kronebreen, a tidewater glacier in Svalbard, using data from permanent seismic stations between 2001 and 2014. However, currently no method has been established in cryo-seismology to quantify the calving ice loss directly from seismic data. Independent calibration data is required to derive 1) a realistic estimation of the dynamic ice loss unobserved due to seismic noise and 2) a robust scaling of seismic calving signals to ice volumes. Here, we analyze the seismic calving record at Kronebreen and independent calving data in a first attempt to quantify ice loss directly from seismic records. We make use of a) calving flux data with weekly to monthly resolution obtained from satellite remote sensing and GPS data between 2007 and 2013, and b) direct, visual calving observations in two weeks in 2009 and 2010. Furthermore, the magnitude-scaling property of seismic calving events is analyzed. We derive and discuss an empirical relation between seismic calving events and calving flux which for the first time allows to estimate a time series of calving volumes more than one decade back in time. Improving our model requires to incorporate more precise, high-resolution calibration data. A new field campaign will combine innovative, multi-disciplinary monitoring techniques to measure calving ice volumes and dynamic ice-ocean interactions simultaneously with terrestrial laser

Second Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

2010-06-30

The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. The Hanford Seismic Network recorded 90 local earthquakes during the second quarter of FY 2010. Eighty-one of these earthquakes were detected in the vicinity of Wooded Island, located about eight miles north of Richland just west of the Columbia River. The Wooded Island events recorded this quarter were a continuation of the swarm events observed during the 2009 and 2010 fiscal years and reported in previous quarterly and annual reports (Rohay et al; 2009a, 2009b, 2009c, and 2010). Most of the events were considered minor (coda-length magnitude [Mc] less than 1.0) with only 1 event in the 2.0-3.0 range; the maximum magnitude event (3.0 Mc) occurred February 4, 2010 at depth 2.4 km. The average depth of the Wooded Island events during the quarter was 1.6 km with a maximum depth estimated at 3.5 km. This placed the Wooded Island events within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The low magnitude of the Wooded Island events has made them undetectable to all but local area residents. The Hanford Strong Motion Accelerometer (SMA) network was triggered several times

Seismic PSA of nuclear power plants a case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hari Prasad, M.; Dubey, P.N.; Reddy, G.R.; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.

2006-07-01

Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Seismic PSA) analysis is an external event PSA analysis. The objective of seismic PSA for the plants is to examine the existence of plant vulnerabilities against postulated earthquakes by numerically assessing the plant safety and to take appropriate measures to enhance the plant safety. Seismic PSA analysis integrates the seismic hazard analysis, seismic response analysis, seismic fragility analysis and system reliability/ accident sequence analysis. In general, the plant consists of normally operating and emergency standby systems and components. The failure during an earthquake (induced directly by excessive inertial stresses or indirectly following the failure of some other item) of an operating component will lead to a change in the state of the plant. In that case, various scenarios can follow depending on the initiating event and the status of other sub-systems. The analysis represents these possible chronological sequences by an event tree. The event trees and the associated fault trees model the sub-systems down to the level of individual components. The procedure has been applied for a typical Indian nuclear power plant. From the internal event PSA level I analysis significant contribution to the Core Damage Frequency (CDF) was found due to the Fire Water System. Hence, this system was selected to establish the procedure of seismic PSA. In this report the different elements that go into seismic PSA analysis have been discussed. Hazard curves have been developed for the site. Fragility curve for the seismically induced failure of Class IV power has been developed. The fragility curve for fire-water piping system has been generated. Event tree for Class IV power supply has been developed and the dominating accident sequences were identified. CDF has been estimated from these dominating accident sequences by convoluting hazard curves of initiating event and fragility curves of the safety systems. (author)

Field site investigation: Effect of mine seismicity on groundwater hydrology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ofoegbu, G.I.; Hsiung, S.; Chowdhury, A.H.

1995-04-01

The results of a field investigation on the groundwater-hydrologic effect of mining-induced earthquakes are presented in this report. The investigation was conducted at the Lucky Friday Mine, a silver-lead-zinc mine in the Coeur d'Alene Mining District of Idaho. The groundwater pressure in sections of three fracture zones beneath the water table was monitored over a 24-mo period. The fracture zones were accessed through a 360-m-long inclined borehole, drilled from the 5,700 level station of the mine. The magnitude, source location, and associated ground motions of mining-induced seismic events were also monitored during the same period, using an existing seismic instrumentation network for the mine, augmented with additional instruments installed specifically for the project by the center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA). More than 50 seismic events of Richter magnitude 1.0 or larger occurred during the monitoring period. Several of these events caused the groundwater pressure to increase, whereas a few caused it to decrease. Generally, the groundwater pressure increased as the magnitude of seismic event increased; for an event of a given magnitude, the groundwater pressure increased by a smaller amount as the distance of the observation point from the source of the event increased. The data was examined using regression analysis. Based on these results, it is suggested that the effect of earthquakes on groundwater flow may be better understood through mechanistic modeling. The mechanical processes and material behavior that would need to be incorporated in such a model are examined. They include a description of the effect of stress change on the permeability and water storage capacity of a fracture rock mass; transient fluid flow; and the generation and transmission of seismic waves through the rock mass

Development of real time monitor system displaying seismic waveform data observed at seafloor seismic network, DONET, for disaster management information

Science.gov (United States)

Horikawa, H.; Takaesu, M.; Sueki, K.; Takahashi, N.; Sonoda, A.; Miura, S.; Tsuboi, S.

2014-12-01

Mega-thrust earthquakes are anticipated to occur in the Nankai Trough in southwest Japan. In the source areas, we have deployed seafloor seismic network, DONET (Dense Ocean-floor Network System for Earthquake and Tsunamis), in 2010 in order to monitor seismicity, crustal deformations, and tsunamis. DONET system consists of totally 20 stations, which is composed of six kinds of sensors, including strong-motion seismometers　and quartz pressure gauges. Those stations are densely distributed with an average spatial interval of 15-20 km and cover near the trench axis to coastal areas. Observed data are transferred to a land station through a fiber-optical cable and then to JAMSTEC (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology) data management center through a private network in real time. After 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, each local government close to Nankai Trough try to plan disaster prevention scheme. JAMSTEC will disseminate DONET data combined with research accomplishment so that they will be widely recognized as important earthquake information. In order to open DONET data observed for research to local government, we have developed a web application system, REIS　(Real-time Earthquake Information System). REIS is providing seismic waveform data to some local governments close to Nankai Trough as a pilot study. As soon as operation of DONET is ready, REIS will start full-scale operation. REIS can display seismic waveform data of DONET in real-time, users can select strong motion and pressure data, and configure the options of trace view arrangement, time scale, and amplitude. In addition to real-time monitoring, REIS can display past seismic waveform data and show earthquake epicenters on the map. In this presentation, we briefly introduce DONET system and then show our web　application system. We also discuss our future plans for further developments of REIS.

Technique and the scheme of engineering-seismometric supervision over seismic events on large dams

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karapetyan, S.; Babayan, T.; Mkrtchyan, G. [National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia (Armenia). Inst. of Geophysics and Engineering Seismology

2004-07-01

A network of engineering-seismometric monitoring stations have been installed at the Tavshout dam in a seismically active region of Armenia. The 37 meter high embankment dam consists of gravel-pebbles with a core of sandy clay. Recent earthquakes have presented a direct hazard for the dam and its water reservoir. In order to determine the degree of seismic hazard and prevention, it is necessary to study the interaction between the ground and the foundation of the dam. The seismometers were fixed at three points both on the foundation and the ground to obtain information on the whole route of seismic waves and to define the geology based amplification factors using empirical equations. The system of engineering-seismometric observations included a network of seismometric instruments, communications and a recording complex. 4 refs., 14 figs.

Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hiemer, S.

2014-07-01

The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hiemer, S.

2014-01-01

The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

SEISMIC ANALYSIS FOR PRECLOSURE SAFETY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

E.N. Lindner

2004-12-03

The purpose of this seismic preclosure safety analysis is to identify the potential seismically-initiated event sequences associated with preclosure operations of the repository at Yucca Mountain and assign appropriate design bases to provide assurance of achieving the performance objectives specified in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 10 CFR Part 63 for radiological consequences. This seismic preclosure safety analysis is performed in support of the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Project. In more detail, this analysis identifies the systems, structures, and components (SSCs) that are subject to seismic design bases. This analysis assigns one of two design basis ground motion (DBGM) levels, DBGM-1 or DBGM-2, to SSCs important to safety (ITS) that are credited in the prevention or mitigation of seismically-initiated event sequences. An application of seismic margins approach is also demonstrated for SSCs assigned to DBGM-2 by showing a high confidence of a low probability of failure at a higher ground acceleration value, termed a beyond-design basis ground motion (BDBGM) level. The objective of this analysis is to meet the performance requirements of 10 CFR 63.111(a) and 10 CFR 63.111(b) for offsite and worker doses. The results of this calculation are used as inputs to the following: (1) A classification analysis of SSCs ITS by identifying potential seismically-initiated failures (loss of safety function) that could lead to undesired consequences; (2) An assignment of either DBGM-1 or DBGM-2 to each SSC ITS credited in the prevention or mitigation of a seismically-initiated event sequence; and (3) A nuclear safety design basis report that will state the seismic design requirements that are credited in this analysis. The present analysis reflects the design information available as of October 2004 and is considered preliminary. The evolving design of the repository will be re-evaluated periodically to ensure that seismic hazards are properly

SEISMIC ANALYSIS FOR PRECLOSURE SAFETY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

E.N. Lindner

2004-01-01

The purpose of this seismic preclosure safety analysis is to identify the potential seismically-initiated event sequences associated with preclosure operations of the repository at Yucca Mountain and assign appropriate design bases to provide assurance of achieving the performance objectives specified in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 10 CFR Part 63 for radiological consequences. This seismic preclosure safety analysis is performed in support of the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Project. In more detail, this analysis identifies the systems, structures, and components (SSCs) that are subject to seismic design bases. This analysis assigns one of two design basis ground motion (DBGM) levels, DBGM-1 or DBGM-2, to SSCs important to safety (ITS) that are credited in the prevention or mitigation of seismically-initiated event sequences. An application of seismic margins approach is also demonstrated for SSCs assigned to DBGM-2 by showing a high confidence of a low probability of failure at a higher ground acceleration value, termed a beyond-design basis ground motion (BDBGM) level. The objective of this analysis is to meet the performance requirements of 10 CFR 63.111(a) and 10 CFR 63.111(b) for offsite and worker doses. The results of this calculation are used as inputs to the following: (1) A classification analysis of SSCs ITS by identifying potential seismically-initiated failures (loss of safety function) that could lead to undesired consequences; (2) An assignment of either DBGM-1 or DBGM-2 to each SSC ITS credited in the prevention or mitigation of a seismically-initiated event sequence; and (3) A nuclear safety design basis report that will state the seismic design requirements that are credited in this analysis. The present analysis reflects the design information available as of October 2004 and is considered preliminary. The evolving design of the repository will be re-evaluated periodically to ensure that seismic hazards are properly

Seismic design standardization of nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reddy, G.R.; Vaze, K.K.

2011-01-01

Full text: Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs) of Nuclear Facilities have to be designed for normal operating loads such as dead weight, pressure, temperature etc., and accidental loads such as earthquakes, floods, extreme, wind air craft impact, explosions etc. Man made accidents such as aircraft impact, explosions etc., some times may be considered as design basis event and some times taken care by providing administrative controls. This will not be possible in the case of natural events such as earthquakes, flooding, extreme winds etc. Among natural events earthquakes are considered as most devastating and need to be considered as design basis event. It is generally felt design of SSCs for earthquake loads is very time consuming and expensive. Conventional seismic design approaches demands for large number of supports for systems and components. This results in large space occupation and in turn creates difficulties for maintenance and in service inspection of systems and components. In addition, complete exercise of design need to be repeated for plants being located at different sites due to different seismic demands. However, advanced seismic response control methods will help to standardize the seismic design meeting the safety and economy. These methods adopt passive, semi active and active devices, and base isolators to control the seismic response. In nuclear industry, it is advisable to go for passive devices to control the seismic responses. Ideally speaking, these methods will make the designs made for normal loads can also satisfy the seismic demand without calling for change in material, geometry, layout etc. in the SSCs. This paper explain the basic ideas of seismic response control methods, demonstrate the effectiveness of control methods through case studies and eventually give the procedure to be adopted for seismic design standardization of nuclear facilities

The influence of the mining operation on the mine seismicity of Vorkuta coal deposit

Science.gov (United States)

Zmushko, T.; Turuntaev, S. B.; Kulikov, V. I.

2012-04-01

The mine seismicity of Vorkuta coal deposit was analyzed. Seismic network consisting of 24 seismic sensors (accelerometers) cover the area of "Komsomolskaya" and "North" mines of Vorkuta deposit. Also there is seismic station of IDG RAS with three-component seismometer near this mines for better defining energy of the seismic events. The catalogs of seismic events contain 9000 and 7000 events with maximum magnitude M=2.3 for "Komsomolskaya" and "North" mines respectively and include the period from 01.09.2008 to 01.09.2011. The b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation was -1.0 and -1.15 respectively for the mines, meanwhile b-value for the nature seismicity was -0,9. It was found, that the number of seismic events per hour during mine combine operation is higher in 2.5 times than the number of seismic events during the break in the operation. Also, the total energy of the events per hour during the operation is higher in 3-5 times than during the break. The study showed, that the number and the energy of the seismic events relate with the hours of mine combine operation. The spatial distribution of the seismic events showed, that 80% of all events and 85% of strong events (M>1.6) were located in and near the longwall under development during the mine combine operations as well asduring the breaks. The isoclines of seismic event numbers proved that the direction of motion of the boundary of seismic events extension coincides with the direction of development, the maximum number of events for any period lies within the wall under operation. The rockburst with M=2.3 occurring at the North mine at July 16, 2011 was considered. The dependences of the energy and of the number of events with different magnitudes on the time showed that the number of events with M=1 and especially M=0.5 before the rockburst decreased, which corresponds to the prognostic seismic quietness, described in the research works. The spatial distribution of the events for the 6 month before the

The Apollo passive seismic experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Latham, G. V.; Dorman, H. J.; Horvath, P.; Ibrahim, A. K.; Koyama, J.; Nakamura, Y.

1979-01-01

The completed data set obtained from the 4-station Apollo seismic network includes signals from approximately 11,800 events of various types. Four data sets for use by other investigators, through the NSSDC, are in preparation. Some refinement of the lunar model based on seismic data can be expected, but its gross features remain as presented two years ago. The existence of a small, molten core remains dependent upon the analysis of signals from a single, far-side impact. Analysis of secondary arrivals from other sources may eventually resolve this issue, as well as continued refinement of the magnetic field measurements. Evidence of considerable lateral heterogeneity within the moon continues to build. The mystery of the much meteoroid flux estimate derived from lunar seismic measurements, as compared with earth-based estimates, remains; although, significant correlations between terrestrial and lunar observations are beginning to emerge.

Contribution of Infrasound to IDC Reviewed Event Bulletin

Science.gov (United States)

Bittner, Paulina; Polich, Paul; Gore, Jane; Ali, Sherif Mohamed; Medinskaya, Tatiana; Mialle, Pierrick

2016-04-01

Until 2003 two waveform technologies, i.e. seismic and hydroacoustic were used to detect and locate events included in the International Data Centre (IDC) Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB). The first atmospheric event was published in the REB in 2003 but infrasound detections could not be used by the Global Association (GA) Software due to the unmanageable high number of spurious associations. Offline improvements of the automatic processing took place to reduce the number of false detections to a reasonable level. In February 2010 the infrasound technology was reintroduced to the IDC operations and has contributed to both automatic and reviewed IDC bulletins. The primary contribution of infrasound technology is to detect atmospheric events. These events may also be observed at seismic stations, which will significantly improve event location. Examples of REB events, which were detected by the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network were fireballs (e.g. Bangkok fireball, 2015), volcanic eruptions (e.g. Calbuco, Chile 2015) and large surface explosions (e.g. Tjanjin, China 2015). Query blasts and large earthquakes belong to events primarily recorded at seismic stations of the IMS network but often detected at the infrasound stations. Presence of infrasound detection associated to an event from a mining area indicates a surface explosion. Satellite imaging and a database of active mines can be used to confirm the origin of such events. This presentation will summarize the contribution of 6 years of infrasound data to IDC bulletins and provide examples of events recorded at the IMS infrasound network. Results of this study may help to improve location of small events with observations on infrasound stations.

Multicomponent seismic loss estimation on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey)

Science.gov (United States)

karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.; Erberik, M. A.; Yakut, A.

2015-12-01

Seismic loss estimation is essential to incorporate seismic risk of structures into an efficient decision-making framework. Evaluation of seismic damage of structures requires a multidisciplinary approach including earthquake source characterization, seismological prediction of earthquake-induced ground motions, prediction of structural responses exposed to ground shaking, and finally estimation of induced damage to structures. As the study region, Erzincan, a city on the eastern part of Turkey is selected which is located in the conjunction of three active strike-slip faults as North Anatolian Fault, North East Anatolian Fault and Ovacik fault. Erzincan city center is in a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments that has experienced devastating earthquakes such as the 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) and the 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6) events, resulting in extensive amount of physical as well as economical losses. These losses are attributed to not only the high seismicity of the area but also as a result of the seismic vulnerability of the constructed environment. This study focuses on the seismic damage estimation of Erzincan using both regional seismicity and local building information. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are selected from a set of scenario events simulated with the stochastic finite fault methodology using regional seismicity parameters. Then, existing building stock are classified into specified groups represented with equivalent single-degree-of-freedom systems. Through these models, the inelastic dynamic structural responses are investigated with non-linear time history analysis. To assess the potential seismic damage in the study area, fragility curves for the classified structural types are derived. Finally, the estimated damage is compared with the observed damage during the 1992 Erzincan earthquake. The results are observed to have a reasonable match indicating the efficiency of the ground motion simulations and building analyses.

Peer review for USI A-46 and the seismic IPE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, P.; Johnson, H.

1993-01-01

Two major seismic re-evaluation programs are underway at many US nuclear power plants. Over 60 units are being examined as part of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Unresolved Safety Issue A46 (Seismic Qualification of Equipment in Operating Plants). In addition, almost all plants are being examined as part of the seismic portion of NRC's Individual Plant Examination of External Events for Severe Accident Vulnerabilities. Both programs require an independent peer review of the evaluation performed by the utility. This paper presents observations on peer reviews, based on the authors's experience with them. Suggestions are presented on the scope of peer review, as well as some of the unique peer review issues inherent to these seismic programs

A new seismic station in Romania the Bucovina seismic array

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grigore, Adrian; Grecu, Bogdan; Ionescu, Constantin; Ghica, Daniela; Popa, Mihaela; Rizescu, Mihaela

2002-01-01

Recently, a new seismic monitoring station, the Bucovina Seismic Array, has been established in the northern part of Romania, in a joint effort of the Air Force Technical Applications Center, USA, and the National Institute for Earth Physics, Romania. The array consists of 10 seismic sensors (9 short-period and one broad band) located in boreholes and distributed in a 5 x 5 km area. On July 24, 2002 the official Opening Ceremony of Bucovina Seismic Array took place in the area near the city of Campulung Moldovenesc in the presence of Romanian Prime Minister, Adrian Nastase. Starting with this date, the new seismic monitoring system became fully operational by continuous recording and transmitting data in real-time to the National Data Center of Romania, in Bucharest and to the National Data Center of USA, in Florida. Bucovina Seismic Array, added to the present Seismic Network, will provide much better seismic monitoring coverage of Romania's territory, on-scale recording for weak-to-strong events, and will contribute to advanced seismological studies on seismic hazard and risk, local effects and microzonation, seismic source physics, Earth structure. (authors)

Investigation on the real-time prediction of ground motions using seismic records observed in deep boreholes

Science.gov (United States)

Miyakoshi, H.; Tsuno, S.

2013-12-01

The present method of the EEW system installed in the railway field of Japan predicts seismic ground motions based on the estimated earthquake information about epicentral distances and magnitudes using initial P-waves observed on the surface. In the case of local earthquakes beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, however, a method to directly predict seismic ground motions using P-waves observed in deep boreholes could issue EEWs more simply and surely. Besides, a method to predict seismic ground motions, using S-waves observed in deep boreholes and S-wave velocity structures beneath seismic stations, could show planar distributions of ground motions for train operation control areas in the aftermath of earthquakes. This information is available to decide areas in which the emergency inspection of railway structures should be performed. To develop those two methods, we investigated relationships between peak amplitudes on the surface and those in deep boreholes, using seismic records of KiK-net stations in the Kanto Basin. In this study, we used earthquake accelerograms observed in boreholes whose depths are deeper than the top face of Pre-Neogene basement and those on the surface at 12 seismic stations of KiK-net. We selected 243 local earthquakes whose epicenters are located around the Kanto Region. Those JMA magnitudes are in the range from 4.5 to 7.0. We picked the on-set of P-waves and S-waves using a vertical component and two horizontal components, respectively. Peak amplitudes of P-waves and S-waves were obtained using vertical components and vector sums of two horizontal components, respectively. We estimated parameters which represent site amplification factors beneath seismic stations, using peak amplitudes of S-waves observed in the deep borehole and those on the surface, to minimize the residuals between calculations by the theoretical equation and observations. Correlation coefficients between calculations and observations are high values in the range

Seismic Anisotropy Beneath Eastern North America: Results from Multi-Event Inversion

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Y.; Levin, V. L.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

Seismic anisotropy observed from the split core-refracted shear phases reflects upper mantle deformation. To characterize anisotropic signatures beneath eastern North America, we collected observations along a 1300 km long array from James Bay to the Fundy Basin. The averaged splitting parameters of individual sites show uniform fast polarization orientation of 80° and delay times linearly decreasing from 1.0 s in the Appalachians to 0.5 s in the Superior Province. We also see directional variation of fast polarizations at most sites, which is a likely effect of vertical changes in anisotropic properties. For sites with 10 or more observations, we used a multi-event inversion technique to solve for the underlying anisotropic structure. The technique considers the NULL observations from single-event analysis that are excluded from the averaged splitting parameters. For models with a single 100 km thick anisotropic layer with a horizontal fast axis, we find up to 6% of anisotropy in the Appalachian Orogen, equivalent to a splitting delay time of 1.5 s. Anisotropy strength reduces to 1.8% in the Superior Province, equivalent to delay times under 0.5 s. The overall decrease in anisotropic strength is modified by local changes of up to 2%, suggesting small-scale local variations near the surface. Orientations of the fast axes change from 60° in the Appalachian Orogen to 90° in the Superior Province, and are also modulated by local deviations. In the Appalachian Orogen the fast axes are close to the absolute plate motion in a hot-spot reference frame, while those in the Superior Province differ from it by almost 30°. Average values of splitting delays agree well with results of inversions in the Superior Province, and diverge in the Appalachians. Conversely, averaged fast polarizations match inversion results in the Appalachians, and are systematically different in the Superior Province. For an set of sites with recording periods exceeding 5 years, we will test more

Micro-seismic imaging using a source function independent full waveform inversion method

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hanchen; Alkhalifah, Tariq

2018-03-01

At the heart of micro-seismic event measurements is the task to estimate the location of the source micro-seismic events, as well as their ignition times. The accuracy of locating the sources is highly dependent on the velocity model. On the other hand, the conventional micro-seismic source locating methods require, in many cases manual picking of traveltime arrivals, which do not only lead to manual effort and human interaction, but also prone to errors. Using full waveform inversion (FWI) to locate and image micro-seismic events allows for an automatic process (free of picking) that utilizes the full wavefield. However, full waveform inversion of micro-seismic events faces incredible nonlinearity due to the unknown source locations (space) and functions (time). We developed a source function independent full waveform inversion of micro-seismic events to invert for the source image, source function and the velocity model. It is based on convolving reference traces with these observed and modeled to mitigate the effect of an unknown source ignition time. The adjoint-state method is used to derive the gradient for the source image, source function and velocity updates. The extended image for the source wavelet in Z axis is extracted to check the accuracy of the inverted source image and velocity model. Also, angle gathers is calculated to assess the quality of the long wavelength component of the velocity model. By inverting for the source image, source wavelet and the velocity model simultaneously, the proposed method produces good estimates of the source location, ignition time and the background velocity for synthetic examples used here, like those corresponding to the Marmousi model and the SEG/EAGE overthrust model.

Micro-seismic imaging using a source function independent full waveform inversion method

KAUST Repository

Wang, Hanchen

2018-03-26

At the heart of micro-seismic event measurements is the task to estimate the location of the source micro-seismic events, as well as their ignition times. The accuracy of locating the sources is highly dependent on the velocity model. On the other hand, the conventional micro-seismic source locating methods require, in many cases manual picking of traveltime arrivals, which do not only lead to manual effort and human interaction, but also prone to errors. Using full waveform inversion (FWI) to locate and image micro-seismic events allows for an automatic process (free of picking) that utilizes the full wavefield. However, full waveform inversion of micro-seismic events faces incredible nonlinearity due to the unknown source locations (space) and functions (time). We developed a source function independent full waveform inversion of micro-seismic events to invert for the source image, source function and the velocity model. It is based on convolving reference traces with these observed and modeled to mitigate the effect of an unknown source ignition time. The adjoint-state method is used to derive the gradient for the source image, source function and velocity updates. The extended image for the source wavelet in Z axis is extracted to check the accuracy of the inverted source image and velocity model. Also, angle gathers is calculated to assess the quality of the long wavelength component of the velocity model. By inverting for the source image, source wavelet and the velocity model simultaneously, the proposed method produces good estimates of the source location, ignition time and the background velocity for synthetic examples used here, like those corresponding to the Marmousi model and the SEG/EAGE overthrust model.

Extreme seismicity and disaster risks: Hazard versus vulnerability (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.

2013-12-01

Although the extreme nature of earthquakes has been known for millennia due to the resultant devastation from many of them, the vulnerability of our civilization to extreme seismic events is still growing. It is partly because of the increase in the number of high-risk objects and clustering of populations and infrastructure in the areas prone to seismic hazards. Today an earthquake may affect several hundreds thousand lives and cause significant damage up to hundred billion dollars; it can trigger an ecological catastrophe if occurs in close vicinity to a nuclear power plant. Two types of extreme natural events can be distinguished: (i) large magnitude low probability events, and (ii) the events leading to disasters. Although the first-type events may affect earthquake-prone countries directly or indirectly (as tsunamis, landslides etc.), the second-type events occur mainly in economically less-developed countries where the vulnerability is high and the resilience is low. Although earthquake hazards cannot be reduced, vulnerability to extreme events can be diminished by monitoring human systems and by relevant laws preventing an increase in vulnerability. Significant new knowledge should be gained on extreme seismicity through observations, monitoring, analysis, modeling, comprehensive hazard assessment, prediction, and interpretations to assist in disaster risk analysis. The advanced disaster risk communication skill should be developed to link scientists, emergency management authorities, and the public. Natural, social, economic, and political reasons leading to disasters due to earthquakes will be discussed.

Development of Canadian seismic design approach and overview of seismic standards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Usmani, A. [Amec Foster Wheeler, Toronto, ON (Canada); Aziz, T. [TSAziz Consulting Inc., Mississauga, ON (Canada)

2015-07-01

Historically the Canadian seismic design approaches have evolved for CANDU® nuclear power plants to ensure that they are designed to withstand a design basis earthquake (DBE) and have margins to meet the safety requirements of beyond DBE (BDBE). While the Canadian approach differs from others, it is comparable and in some cases more conservative. The seismic requirements are captured in five CSA nuclear standards which are kept up to date and incorporate lessons learnt from recent seismic events. This paper describes the evolution of Canadian approach, comparison with others and provides an overview and salient features of CSA seismic standards. (author)

Final Technical Report, 30 SEPTEMBER 2002 - 31 JANUARY 2006; ENERGY PARTIONING FOR SEISMIC EVENTS IN FENNOSCANDIA AND NW RUSSIA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bungum, H.; Kvaerna, T.; Larsen, S.

2006-01-31

In this project we have addressed the problem of energy partitioning at distances ranging from very local to regional for various kinds of seismic sources. On the local and regional scale (20-220 km) we have targeted events from the region offshore Western Norway where we have both natural earthquake activity as well as frequent occurrence of underwater explosions carried out by the Norwegian Navy. On the small scale we have focused on analysis of observations from an in-mine network of 16-18 sensors in the Pyhasalmi mine in central Finland. This analysis has been supplemented with 3-D finite difference wave propagation simulations in a realistic mine model to investigate the physical mechanisms that partition seismic energy in the near source region in and around the underground mine. The results from modeling and analysis of local and regional data show that mean S/P amplitude ratios for explosions and natural events differ at individual stations and are in general higher for natural events and frequency bands above 3 Hz. However, the distributions of S/P ratios for explosions and natural events overlap in all analyzed frequency bands. Thus, for individual events in our study area, S/P amplitude ratios can only assist the discrimination between an explosion or a natural event. This observation is supported by synthetic seismograms calculated for simple 1-D models which demonstrate that explosions also generate shear-wave energy if they are fired close to an interface with a strong material contrast (as is the case for most explosions), e.g., free surface or the ocean bottom. The larger difference in S/P ratios between earthquakes and explosions for higher frequencies can be explained by the fact that at low frequencies (larger wavelengths), discontinuities and structural heterogeneities in the explosion source region are stronger generators of converted S energy. The S*-phase, for example, is most efficiently generated whenever an explosion source is located

Peak Ground Velocities for Seismic Events at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

K. Coppersmith; R. Quittmeyer

2005-01-01

This report describes a scientific analysis to bound credible horizontal peak ground velocities (PGV) for the repository waste emplacement level at Yucca Mountain. Results are presented as a probability distribution for horizontal PGV to represent uncertainties in the analysis. The analysis also combines the bound to horizontal PGV with results of ground motion site-response modeling (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170027]) to develop a composite hazard curve for horizontal PGV at the waste emplacement level. This result provides input to an abstraction of seismic consequences (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169183]). The seismic consequence abstraction, in turn, defines the input data and computational algorithms for the seismic scenario class of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). Planning for the analysis is documented in Technical Work Plan TWP-MGR-GS-000001 (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171850]). The bound on horizontal PGV at the repository waste emplacement level developed in this analysis complements ground motions developed on the basis of PSHA results. In the PSHA, ground motion experts characterized the epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability in their ground motion interpretations. To characterize the aleatory variability they used unbounded lognormal distributions. As a consequence of these characterizations, as seismic hazard calculations are extended to lower and lower annual frequencies of being exceeded, the ground motion level increases without bound, eventually reaching levels that are not credible (Corradini 2003 [DIRS 171191]). To provide credible seismic inputs for TSPA, in accordance with 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 63.102(j) [DIRS 156605], this complementary analysis is carried out to determine reasonable bounding values of horizontal PGV at the waste emplacement level for annual frequencies of exceedance as low as 10 -8 . For each realization of the TSPA seismic scenario, the results of this analysis provide a constraint on the values sampled from the

Rotational motions from the 2016, Central Italy seismic sequence, as observed by an underground ring laser gyroscope

Science.gov (United States)

Simonelli, A.; Igel, H.; Wassermann, J.; Belfi, J.; Di Virgilio, A.; Beverini, N.; De Luca, G.; Saccorotti, G.

2018-05-01

We present the analysis of rotational and translational ground motions from earthquakes recorded during October/November, 2016, in association with the Central Italy seismic-sequence. We use co-located measurements of the vertical ground rotation rate from a large ring laser gyroscope (RLG), and the three components of ground velocity from a broadband seismometer. Both instruments are positioned in a deep underground environment, within the Gran Sasso National Laboratories (LNGS) of the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN). We collected dozens of events spanning the 3.5-5.9 Magnitude range, and epicentral distances between 30 km and 70 km. This data set constitutes an unprecedented observation of the vertical rotational motions associated with an intense seismic sequence at local distance. Under the plane wave approximation we process the data set in order to get an experimental estimation of the events back azimuth. Peak values of rotation rate (PRR) and horizontal acceleration (PGA) are markedly correlated, according to a scaling constant which is consistent with previous measurements from different earthquake sequences. We used a prediction model in use for Italy to calculate the expected PGA at the recording site, obtaining consequently predictions for PRR. Within the modeling uncertainties, predicted rotations are consistent with the observed ones, suggesting the possibility of establishing specific attenuation models for ground rotations, like the scaling of peak velocity and peak acceleration in empirical ground-motion prediction relationships. In a second step, after identifying the direction of the incoming wave-field, we extract phase velocity data using the spectral ratio of the translational and rotational components.. This analysis is performed over time windows associated with the P-coda, S-coda and Lg phase. Results are consistent with independent estimates of shear-wave velocities in the shallow crust of the Central Apennines.

Central Italy magnetotelluric investigation. Structures and relations to seismic events: analysis of initial data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Marianiuk

1996-06-01

Full Text Available A scientific collaboration between the Warsaw Academy of Science, (Poland and the National Institute of Geophysics (Italy, gave rise to the installation of few stations for the long term measurement of magnetotelluric fields in central Italy. The selection of investigation sites was determined by the individual seismic interest of each location. The project began in the summer of 1991, with the installation of 2 magnetotelluric stations in the province of Isernia, (Collemeluccio and Montedimezzo. In 1992, 2 more stations became operative, one in the province of Rieti, (Fassinoro, the other in the province of L'Aquila, (S. Vittoria. For the purpose of this project, the magnetic observatory in L'Aquila was also equipped with electric lines, for the measurement of the telluric field. The aim of the analysis here presented, is to show that is possible to follow the temporal evolution of magnetotelluric characteristic parameters. At Collemeluccio this evolution was compared with the seismic released energy for events recorded within the study area.

Role of seismic PRA in seismic safety decisions of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravindra, M.K.; Kennedy, R.P.; Sues, R.H.

1985-01-01

This paper highlights the important roles that seismic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) can play in the seismic safety decisions of nuclear power plants. If a seismic PRA has been performed for a plant, its results can be utilized to evaluate the seismic capability beyond the safe shutdown event (SSE). Seismic fragilities of key structures and equipment, fragilities of dominant plant damage states and the frequencies of occurrence of these plant damage states are reviewed to establish the seismic safety of the plant beyond the SSE level. Guidelines for seismic margin reviews and upgrading may be developed by first identifying the generic classes of structures and equipment that have been shown to be dominant risk contributors in the completed seismic PRAs, studying the underlying causes for their contribution and examining why certain other items (e.g., piping) have not proved to be high-risk-contributors

Seismic risk map for Southeastern Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mioto, J.A.

1984-01-01

During the last few years, some studies regarding seismic risk were prepared for three regions of Brazil. They were carried on account of two basic interests: first, toward the seismic history and recurrence of Brazilian seismic events; second, in a way as to provide seismic parameters for the design and construction of hydro and nuclear power plants. The first seismic risk map prepared for the southeastern region was elaborated in 1979 by 6he Universidade de Brasilia (UnB-Brasilia Seismological Station). In 1981 another seismic risk map was completed on the basis of seismotectonic studies carried out for the design and construction of the Nuclear power plants of Itaorna Beach (Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro) by IPT (Mining and Applied Geology Division). In Brazil, until 1984, seismic studies concerning hydro and nuclear power plants and other civil construction of larger size did not take into account the seismic events from the point of view of probabilities of seismic recurrences. Such analysis in design is more important than the choice of a level of intensity or magnitude, or adoption of a seismicity level ased on deterministic methods. In this way, some considerations were made, concerning the use of seisms in Brazilian designs of hydro and nuclear power plants, as far as seismic analysis is concerned, recently altered over the current seismic risk panorama. (D.J.M.) [pt

Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McCann, W R; Nishenko, S P; Sykes, L R; Krause, J

1979-01-01

The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long-and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps. The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best. The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning priorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.

Annual Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2008

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

2008-12-29

The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. During fiscal year 2008, the Hanford Seismic Network recorded 1431 triggers on the seismometer system, which included 112 seismic events in the southeast Washington area and an additional 422 regional and teleseismic events. There were 74 events determined to be local earthquakes relevant to the Hanford Site. The highest-magnitude event (3.7 Mc) occurred on May 18, 2008, and was located approximately 17 km east of Prosser at a depth of 20.5 km. With regard to the depth distribution, 13 earthquakes were located at shallow depths (less than 4 km, most likely in the Columbia River basalts), 45 earthquakes were located at intermediate depths (between 4 and 9 km, most likely in the pre-basalt sediments), and 16 earthquakes were located at depths greater than 9 km, within the crystalline basement. Geographically, 54 earthquakes were located in swarm areas and 20 earthquakes were classified as random events. The May 18 earthquake was the highest magnitude event recorded since 1975 in the vicinity of the Hanford Site (between 46 degrees and 47 degrees north latitude and

Reflection seismic methods applied to locating fracture zones in crystalline rock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Juhlin, C.

1998-01-01

The reflection seismic method is a potentially powerful tool for identifying and localising fracture zones in crystalline rock if used properly. Borehole sonic logs across fracture zones show that they have reduced P-wave velocities compared to the surrounding intact rock. Diagnostically important S-wave velocity log information across the fracture zones is generally lacking. Generation of synthetic reflection seismic data and subsequent processing of these data show that structures dipping up towards 70 degrees from horizontal can be reliably imaged using surface seismic methods. Two real case studies where seismic reflection methods have been used to image fracture zones in crystalline rock are presented. Two examples using reflection seismic are presented. The first is from the 5354 m deep SG-4 borehole in the Middle Urals, Russia where strong seismic reflectors dipping from 25 to 50 degrees are observed on surface seismic reflection data crossing over the borehole. On vertical seismic profile data acquired in the borehole, the observed P-wave reflectivity is weak from these zones, however, strong converted P to S waves are observed. This can be explained by the source of the reflectors being fracture zones with a high P wave to S wave velocity ratio compared to the surrounding rock resulting in a high dependence on the angle of incidence for the reflection coefficient. A high P wave to S wave velocity ratio (high Poisson's ratio) is to be expected in fluid filled fractured rock. The second case is from Aevroe, SE Sweden, where two 1 km long crossing high resolution seismic reflection lines were acquired in October 1996. An E-W line was shot with 5 m geophone and shotpoint spacing and a N-S one with 10 m geophone and shotpoint spacing. An explosive source with a charge size of 100 grams was used along both lines. The data clearly image three major dipping reflectors in the upper 200 ms (600 m). The dipping ones intersect or project to the surface at/or close to

Application of Seismic Observation Data in Borehole for the Development of Attenuation Equation of Response Spectra on Bedrock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Si, Hongjun

2014-01-01

Ground motion data on seismic bedrock is important, but it is very difficult to obtain such data directly. The data from KiK-net and JNES/SODB is valuable and very useful in developing the attenuation relationship of response spectra on seismic bedrock. NIED has approximately 200 observation points on seismic bedrock with S-wave velocity of more than 2000 m/s in Japan. Using data from observation at these points, a Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) is under development. (author)

AP1000R design robustness against extreme external events - Seismic, flooding, and aircraft crash

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfister, A.; Goossen, C.; Coogler, K.; Gorgemans, J.

2012-01-01

Both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require existing and new nuclear power plants to conduct plant assessments to demonstrate the unit's ability to withstand external hazards. The events that occurred at the Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear power station demonstrated the importance of designing a nuclear power plant with the ability to protect the plant against extreme external hazards. The innovative design of the AP1000 R nuclear power plant provides unparalleled protection against catastrophic external events which can lead to extensive infrastructure damage and place the plant in an extended abnormal situation. The AP1000 plant is an 1100-MWe pressurized water reactor with passive safety features and extensive plant simplifications that enhance construction, operation, maintenance and safety. The plant's compact safety related footprint and protection provided by its robust nuclear island structures prevent significant damage to systems, structures, and components required to safely shutdown the plant and maintain core and spent fuel pool cooling and containment integrity following extreme external events. The AP1000 nuclear power plant has been extensively analyzed and reviewed to demonstrate that it's nuclear island design and plant layout provide protection against both design basis and extreme beyond design basis external hazards such as extreme seismic events, external flooding that exceeds the maximum probable flood limit, and malicious aircraft impact. The AP1000 nuclear power plant uses fail safe passive features to mitigate design basis accidents. The passive safety systems are designed to function without safety-grade support systems (such as AC power, component cooling water, service water, compressed air or HVAC). The plant has been designed to protect systems, structures, and components critical to placing the reactor in a safe shutdown condition within the steel containment vessel which is

Widespread seismicity excitation following the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and its implications for seismic hazard

Science.gov (United States)

Toda, S.; Stein, R. S.; Lin, J.

2011-12-01

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-chiho Taiheiyo-oki earthquake (Tohoku earthquake) was followed by massive offshore aftershocks including 6 M≧7 and 94 M≧6 shocks during the 4.5 months (until July 26). It is also unprecedented that a broad increase in seismicity was observed over inland Japan at distances of up to 425 km from the locus of high seismic slip on the megathrust. Such an increase was not seen for the 2004 M=9.1 Sumatra or 2010 M=8.8 Chile earthquakes, but they lacked the seismic networks necessary to detect such small events. Here we explore the possibility that the rate changes are the product of static Coulomb stress transfer to small faults. We use the nodal planes of M≧3.5 earthquakes as proxies for such small active faults, and find that of fifteen regions averaging ˜80 by 80 km in size, 11 show a positive association between calculated stress changes and the observed seismicity rate change, 3 show a negative correlation, and for one the changes are too small to assess. This work demonstrates that seismicity can turn on in the nominal stress shadow of a mainshock as long as small geometrically diverse active faults exist there, which is likely quite common in areas having complex geologic background like Tohoku. In Central Japan, however, there are several regions where the usual tectonic stress has been enhanced by the Tohoku earthquake, and the moderate and large faults have been brought closer to failure, producing M˜5 to 6 shocks, including Nagano, near Mt. Fuji, Tokyo metropolitan area and its offshore. We confirmed that at least 5 of the seven large, exotic, or remote aftershocks were brought ≧0.3 bars closer to failure. Validated by such correlations, we evaluate the effects of the Tohoku event on the other subduction zones nearby and major active faults inland. The majorities of thrust faults inland Tohoku are brought farther from failure by the M9 event. However, we found that the large sections of the Japan trench megathrust, the outer

Modeling the Geometry of Plate Boundary and Seismic Structure in the Southern Ryukyu Trench Subduction Zone, Japan, Using Amphibious Seismic Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Yamamoto, Y.; Takahashi, T.; Ishihara, Y.; Kaiho, Y.; Arai, R.; Obana, K.; Nakanishi, A.; Miura, S.; Kodaira, S.; Kaneda, Y.

2018-02-01

Here we present the new model, the geometry of the subducted Philippine Sea Plate interface beneath the southern Ryukyu Trench subduction zone, estimated from seismic tomography and focal mechanism estimation by using passive and active data from a temporary amphibious seismic network and permanent land stations. Using relocated low-angle thrust-type earthquakes, repeating earthquakes, and structural information, we constrained the geometry of plate boundary from the trench axis to a 60 km depth with uncertainties of less than 5 km. The estimated plate geometry model exhibited large variation, including a pronounced convex structure that may be evidence of a subducted seamount in the eastern portion of study area, whereas the western part appeared smooth. We also found that the active earthquake region near the plate boundary, defined by the distance from our plate geometry model, was clearly separated from the area dominated by short-term slow-slip events (SSEs). The oceanic crust just beneath the SSE-dominant region, the western part of the study area, showed high Vp/Vs ratios (>1.8), whereas the eastern side showed moderate or low Vp/Vs (<1.75). We interpreted this as an indication that high fluid pressures near the surface of the slab are contributing to the SSE activities. Within the toe of the mantle wedge, P and S wave velocities (<7.5 and <4.2 km/s, respectively) lower than those observed through normal mantle peridotite might suggest that some portions of the mantle may be at least 40% serpentinized.

Rotational motions from the 2016, Central Italy seismic sequence, as observed by an underground ring laser gyroscope

Science.gov (United States)

Simonelli, Andreino; Belfi, Jacopo; Beverini, Nicolò; Di Virgilio, Angela; Maccioni, Enrico; De Luca, Gaetano; Saccorotti, Gilberto; Wassermann, Joachim; Igel, Heiner

2017-04-01

We present analyses of rotational and translational ground motions from earthquakes recorded during October-November, 2016, in association with the Central Italy seismic-sequence. We use co-located measurements of the vertical ground rotation rate from a large ring laser gyroscope (RLG), and the three components of ground velocity from a broadband seismometer. Both instruments are positioned in a deep underground environment, within the Gran Sasso National Laboratories (LNGS) of the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN). We collected dozen of events spanning the 3.5-5.9 Magnitude range, and epicentral distances between 40 km and 80 km. This data set constitutes an unprecedented observation of the vertical rotational motions associated with an intense seismic sequence at local distance. In theory - assuming plane wave propagation - the ratio between the vertical rotation rate and the transverse acceleration permits, in a single station approach, the estimation of apparent phase velocity in the case of SH arrivals or real phase velocity in the case of Love surface waves. This is a standard approach for the analysis of earthquakes at teleseismic distances, and the results reported by the literature are compatible with the expected phase velocities from the PREM model. Here we extend the application of the same approach to local events, thus exploring higher frequency ranges and larger rotation rate amplitudes. We use a novel approach to joint rotation/acceleration analysis based on the continuous wavelet transform (CWT). Wavelet coherence (WTC) is used as a filter for identifying those regions of the time-period plane where the rotation rate and transverse acceleration signals exhibit significant coherence. This allows retrieving estimates of phase velocities over the period range spanned by correlated arrivals. Coherency among ground rotation and translation is also observed throughout the coda of the P-wave arrival, an observation which is interpreted in

Hanford annual second quarter seismic report, fiscal year 1998: Seismicity on and near the Hanford Site, Pasco, Washington

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hartshorn, D.C.; Reidel, S.P.; Rohay, A.C.

1998-06-01

Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the US Department of Energy and its contractors. The staff also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of an earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network (ENN) consist of 42 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. The operational rate for the second quarter of FY98 for stations in the HSN was 99.92%. The operational rate for the second quarter of FY98 for stations of the EWRN was 99.46%. For the second quarter of FY98, the acquisition computer triggered 159 times. Of these triggers 14 were local earthquakes: 7 (50%) in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 3 (21%) in the pre-basalt sediments, and 4 (29%) in the crystalline basement. The geologic and tectonic environments where these earthquakes occurred are discussed in this report. The most significant seismic event for the second quarter was on March 23, 1998 when a 1.9 Mc occurred near Eltopia, WA and was felt by local residents. Although this was a small event, it was felt at the surface and is an indication of the potential impact on Hanford of seismic events that are common to the Site.

Seismic rupture study using near-source data: application to seismic hazard assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hernandez, Bruno

2000-01-01

This work presents seismic source studies using near-field data. In accordance with the quality and the quantity of available data we developed and applied various methods to characterize the seismic source. Macro-seismic data are used to verify if simple and robust methods used on recent instrumental earthquakes may provide a good tool to calibrate historical events in France. These data are often used to characterize earthquakes to be taken into account for seismic hazard assessment in moderate seismicity regions. Geodetic data (SAR, GPS) are used to estimate the slip distribution on the fault during the 1992, Landers, California earthquake. These data are also used to precise the location and the geometry of the main events of the 1997, Colfiorito, central Italy, earthquake sequence. Finally, the strong motions contain the most complete information about rupture process. These data are used to discriminate between two possible fault planes of the 1999, north India, Chamoli earthquake. The strong motions recorded close to the 1999, Mexico, Oaxaca earthquake are used to constrain the rupture history. Strong motions a.re also used in combination with geodetic data to access the rupture history of the Landers earthquake and the main events of the Colfiorito seismic sequence. For the Landers earthquake, the data quality and complementarity offered the possibility to describe the rupture development with accuracy. The large heterogeneities in both slip amplitude and rupture velocity variations suggest that the rupture propagates by breaking successive asperities rather than by propagating like a pulse at constant velocity. The rupture front slows as it encounters barriers and accelerates within main asperities. (author)

Aim and points of this workshop: The 2. Workshop on Seismic Observation in Deep Borehole (SODB) and its Applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugiyama, Yuichi

2014-01-01

The achievements of the first WS and the aim of the Second WS were explained. The purposes of this Second WS were: to re-recognize the significance of seismic ground motion evaluation based on newly added deep borehole seismic observation in addition to existing borehole investigation, geological surveys, and geophysical exploration; to acknowledge deep borehole seismic observation and geophysical exploration (hardware) as well as the site characteristic evaluation method (software) required for seismic ground motion evaluation; and to consolidate opinions on multi-purpose application of observation technology and data as well as acknowledge issues to be addressed and technological problems. The final goals of this WS were to clarify items and issues that present challenges for the future based on the discussions in this WS. (author)

Three decades of seismic activity at Mt. Vesuvius: 1972-1999

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Natale, Giuseppe; Troise, Claudia; Kuznetzov, Igor; Kronrod, Tanya; Peresan, Antonella; Sarao, Angela; Panza, Gluliano F.

2002-06-01

We analyse the seismic catalogue of the local earthquakes which occurred at Somma- Vesuvius volcano in the past three decades (1972-2000). The seismicity in this period can be described as composed by a background level, characterised by a low and rather uniform rate of energy release and by sporadic periods of increased seismic activity. Such relatively intense seismicity periods are characterised by energy rates and magnitudes progressively increasing in the critical periods. The analyses of the b value in the whole period evidences a well defined pattern, with values of b progressively decreasing, from about 1.8, at the beginning of the considered period, to about 1.0 at present. This steady variation indicates an increasing dynamics in the volcanic system. Within this general trend it is possible to identity a sub-structure in the time sequence of the seismic events, formed by the alternating episodes of quiescence and activity. The analysis of the source moment tensor of the largest earthquakes shows that the processes at the seismic source are generally not consistent with simple double-couples, but that they are compatible with large isotropic components, mostly indicating volumetric expansion. These components are shown to be statistically significant for almost all the analysed events. Such focal mechanisms can be interpreted as the effect of explosion phenomena, possibly related to volatile exsolution from the crystallising magma. The availability of a reduced amount of high quality data necessary for the inversion of the source moment tensor, the still limited period of systematic observation of Vesuvius micro- earthquakes and, above all, the absence of eruptive events during such interval of time, cannot obviously permit to outline any formal premonitory signal. Nevertheless, the analysis reported in this paper indicates a progressively evolving dynamics, characterised by a general increasing trend in the seismic activity in the volcanic system and by a

Analyzing time-ordered event data with missed observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Dokter, Adriaan M; van Loon, E Emiel; Fokkema, Wimke; Lameris, Thomas K; Nolet, Bart A; van der Jeugd, Henk P

2017-09-01

A common problem with observational datasets is that not all events of interest may be detected. For example, observing animals in the wild can difficult when animals move, hide, or cannot be closely approached. We consider time series of events recorded in conditions where events are occasionally missed by observers or observational devices. These time series are not restricted to behavioral protocols, but can be any cyclic or recurring process where discrete outcomes are observed. Undetected events cause biased inferences on the process of interest, and statistical analyses are needed that can identify and correct the compromised detection processes. Missed observations in time series lead to observed time intervals between events at multiples of the true inter-event time, which conveys information on their detection probability. We derive the theoretical probability density function for observed intervals between events that includes a probability of missed detection. Methodology and software tools are provided for analysis of event data with potential observation bias and its removal. The methodology was applied to simulation data and a case study of defecation rate estimation in geese, which is commonly used to estimate their digestive throughput and energetic uptake, or to calculate goose usage of a feeding site from dropping density. Simulations indicate that at a moderate chance to miss arrival events ( p  = 0.3), uncorrected arrival intervals were biased upward by up to a factor 3, while parameter values corrected for missed observations were within 1% of their true simulated value. A field case study shows that not accounting for missed observations leads to substantial underestimates of the true defecation rate in geese, and spurious rate differences between sites, which are introduced by differences in observational conditions. These results show that the derived methodology can be used to effectively remove observational biases in time-ordered event

Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) by Multi-parametric Observations: Preliminary Results of PRIME experiment within the PRE-EARTHQUAKES EU-FP7 Project

Science.gov (United States)

Tramutoli, V.; Inan, S.; Jakowski, N.; Pulinets, S. A.; Romanov, A.; Filizzola, C.; Shagimuratov, I.; Pergola, N.; Ouzounov, D. P.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Parrot, M.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Alparlsan, E.; Wilken, V.; Tsybukia, K.; Romanov, A.; Paciello, R.; Zakharenkova, I.; Romano, G.

2012-12-01

The integration of different observations together with the refinement of data analysis methods, is generally expected to improve our present knowledge of preparatory phases of earthquakes and of their possible precursors. This is also the main goal of PRE-EARTHQUAKES (Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors Studies) the FP7 Project which, to this aim, committed together, different international expertise and observational capabilities, in the last 2 years. In the learning phase of the project, different parameters (e.g. thermal anomalies, total electron content, radon concentration, etc.), measured from ground and satellite systems and analyzed by using different data analysis approaches, have been studied for selected geographic areas and specific seismic events in the past. Since July 2012 the PRIME (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Real-time Integration and Monitoring Experiment) started attempting to perform, on the base of independent observations collected and integrated in real-time through the PEG (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Geo-portal), a Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) on selected geographic areas of Europe (Italy-Greece-Turkey) and Asia (Kamchatka, Sakhalin, Japan). In this paper, results so far achieved as well as the potential and opportunities they open for a worldwide Earthquake Observation System (EQuOS) - as a dedicated component of GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) - will be presented.

Critical assessment of seismic and geomechanics literature related to a high-level nuclear waste underground repository

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kana, D.D.; Vanzant, B.W.; Nair, P.K. [Southwest Research Inst., San Antonio, TX (USA). Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses; Brady, B.H.G. [ITASCA Consulting Group, Inc., Minneapolis, MN (USA)

1991-06-01

A comprehensive literature assessment has been conducted to determine the nature and scope of technical information available to characterize the seismic performance of an underground repository and associated facilities. Significant deficiencies were identified in current practices for prediction of seismic response of underground excavations in jointed rock. Conventional analytical methods are based on a continuum representation of the host rock mass. Field observations and laboratory experiments indicate that, in jointed rock, the behavior of the joints controls the overall performance of underground excavations. Further, under repetitive seismic loading, shear displacement develops progressively at block boundaries. Field observations correlating seismicity and groundwater conditions have provided significant information on hydrological response to seismic events. However, lack of a comprehensive model of geohydrological response to seismicity has limited the transportability conclusions from field observations. Based on the literature study, matters requiring further research in relation to the Yucca Mountain repository are identified. The report focuses on understanding seismic processes in fractured tuff, and provides a basis for work on the geohydrologic response of a seismically disturbed rock mass. 220 refs., 43 figs., 11 tabs.

Critical assessment of seismic and geomechanics literature related to a high-level nuclear waste underground repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kana, D.D.; Vanzant, B.W.; Nair, P.K.

1991-06-01

A comprehensive literature assessment has been conducted to determine the nature and scope of technical information available to characterize the seismic performance of an underground repository and associated facilities. Significant deficiencies were identified in current practices for prediction of seismic response of underground excavations in jointed rock. Conventional analytical methods are based on a continuum representation of the host rock mass. Field observations and laboratory experiments indicate that, in jointed rock, the behavior of the joints controls the overall performance of underground excavations. Further, under repetitive seismic loading, shear displacement develops progressively at block boundaries. Field observations correlating seismicity and groundwater conditions have provided significant information on hydrological response to seismic events. However, lack of a comprehensive model of geohydrological response to seismicity has limited the transportability conclusions from field observations. Based on the literature study, matters requiring further research in relation to the Yucca Mountain repository are identified. The report focuses on understanding seismic processes in fractured tuff, and provides a basis for work on the geohydrologic response of a seismically disturbed rock mass. 220 refs., 43 figs., 11 tabs

Estimates of mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean associated with low-probability seismic events in total system performance assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pensado, Osvaldo; Mancillas, James

2007-01-01

An approach is described to estimate mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean of seismic events with low probability of breaching components of the engineered barrier system. The approach is aimed at complementing total system performance assessment models used to understand consequences of scenarios leading to radionuclide releases in geologic nuclear waste repository systems. The objective is to develop an efficient approach to estimate mean consequences associated with seismic events of low probability, employing data from a performance assessment model with a modest number of Monte Carlo realizations. The derived equations and formulas were tested with results from a specific performance assessment model. The derived equations appear to be one method to estimate mean consequences without having to use a large number of realizations. (authors)

Evidence of a Large Triggered Event in the Nepal Himalaya Following the Gorkha Earthquake: Implications Toward Enhanced Seismic Hazard

Science.gov (United States)

Mandal, Prantik

2018-03-01

A DC (double couple) constrained multiple point-source moment-tensor inversion is performed on the band-passed (0.008-0.10 Hz) displacement data of the 25 April (M w 7.8) 2015 Nepal mainshock, from 17 broadband stations in India. Our results reveal that the 25 April event (strike = 324°, dip = 14°, rake = 88°) ruptured the north-dipping main Himalayan thrust (MHT) at 16 km depth. We modeled the Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) produced by the slip on the fault plane of the 25 April Nepal mainshock. A strong correlation with occurrences of aftershocks and regions of increased positive ΔCFS is obtained below the aftershock zone of the 2015 Nepal mainshock. We notice that predicted ΔCFS at 16 km depth show a positive Coulomb stress of 0.06 MPa at the location of the 12 May 2015 event. These small modeled stress changes can lead to trigger events if the crust is already near to failure, but these small stresses can also advance the occurrence of future earthquakes. The main finding of our ΔCFS modeling implies that the 25 April event increased the Coulomb stress changes by 0.06 MPa at 16 km depth below the site of the 12 May event, and thus, this event can be termed as triggered. We propose that the seismic hazard in the Himalaya is not only caused by the mainshock slip on the MHT; rather, the occurrence of large triggered event on the MHT can also enhance our understanding of the seismic hazard in the Nepal Himalaya.

Seismic assessment of a site using the time series method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krutzik, N.J.; Rotaru, I.; Bobei, M.; Mingiuc, C.; Serban, V.; Androne, M.

1997-01-01

To increase the safety of a NPP located on a seismic site, the seismic acceleration level to which the NPP should be qualified must be as representative as possible for that site, with a conservative degree of safety but not too exaggerated. The consideration of the seismic events affecting the site as independent events and the use of statistic methods to define some safety levels with very low annual occurrence probability (10 -4 ) may lead to some exaggerations of the seismic safety level. The use of some very high value for the seismic acceleration imposed by the seismic safety levels required by the hazard analysis may lead to very costly technical solutions that can make the plant operation more difficult and increase maintenance costs. The considerations of seismic events as a time series with dependence among the events produced, may lead to a more representative assessment of a NPP site seismic activity and consequently to a prognosis on the seismic level values to which the NPP would be ensured throughout its life-span. That prognosis should consider the actual seismic activity (including small earthquakes in real time) of the focuses that affect the plant site. The paper proposes the applications of Autoregressive Time Series to issue a prognosis on the seismic activity of a focus and presents the analysis on Vrancea focus that affects NPP Cernavoda site, by this method. The paper also presents the manner to analyse the focus activity as per the new approach and it assesses the maximum seismic acceleration that may affect NPP Cernavoda throughout its life-span (∼ 30 years). Development and applications of new mathematical analysis method, both for long - and short - time intervals, may lead to important contributions in the process of foretelling the seismic events in the future. (authors)

Detailed seismicity analysis in the SE of Romania (Dobrogea region)

Science.gov (United States)

Rogozea, Maria; Radulian, Mircea; Ghica, Daniela; Popa, Mihaela

2014-05-01

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the seismicity in the south-eastern part of Romania, in the Dobrogea region (namely the Predobrogean Depression and Black Sea area). Predobrogean Depression is the name attributed to the structures belonging to the Scythian Platform. The seismic activity is moderate with most significant earthquakes at the boundary between the North Dobrogea Orogen and Scythian Platform (Sf. Gheorghe fault). The largest magnitude event was recorded in 02.11.1871 (Mw = 5.3). Other events with magnitude above 4 were observed close to Tulcea city (13.11.1981, Mw = 5.1, 03.09.204, Mw =5.1) and Galati city (11.09.1980, Mw = 4.2). Recently, an earthquake swarm of 406 events extended over two months and a half (23 September - 5 December 2013) was produced in the Galati area (maximum magnitude 3.9). The deformation field has an extensional regime, as resulted from fault plane solutions and geotectonic investigations. The maximum expected magnitude in this area is estimated at Mw = 5.5. The seismic activity in the Black Sea area, close to Romania seashore and north-east Bulgarian seashore, concentrates along Shabla fault system. Large shocks (magnitude above 7) are reported here at intervals of a few centuries. The most recent major shock was recorded on 31 January 1901 (Mw = 7.2) in Shabla region, Bulgaria. To characterize seismicity parameters, the Romanian catalogue of the National Institute of Earth Physics was used as a basic input. The catalogue was revised as concerns historical information by reanalyzing macroseismic data and for the recent events, by applying up-to-date tools to relocate and re-parametrize the seismic sources.

Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2014-09-01

Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).

Progressive Seismic Failure, Seismic Gap, and Great Seismic Risk across the Densely Populated North China Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, A.; Yu, X.; Shen, Z.

2014-12-01

Although the seismically active North China basin has the most complete written records of pre-instrumentation earthquakes in the world, this information has not been fully utilized for assessing potential earthquake hazards of this densely populated region that hosts ~200 million people. In this study, we use the historical records to document the earthquake migration pattern and the existence of a 180-km seismic gap along the 600-km long right-slip Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian (THC) fault zone that cuts across the North China basin. The newly recognized seismic gap, which is centered at Tianjin with a population of 11 million people and ~120 km from Beijing (22 million people) and Tangshan (7 million people), has not been ruptured in the past 1000 years by M≥6 earthquakes. The seismic migration pattern in the past millennium suggests that the epicenters of major earthquakes have shifted towards this seismic gap along the THC fault, which implies that the 180- km gap could be the site of the next great earthquake with M≈7.6 if it is ruptured by a single event. Alternatively, the seismic gap may be explained by aseismic creeping or seismic strain transfer between active faults.

Observations of volcanic earthquakes and tremor at Deception Island - Antarctica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Morales

1999-06-01

Full Text Available Deception Island - South Shetlands, Antarctica is site of active volcanism. Since 1988 field surveys have been carried out with the aim of seismic monitoring, and in 1994 a seismic array was set up near the site of the Spanish summer base in order to better constrain the source location and spectral properties of the seismic events related to the volcanic activity. The array was maintained during the Antarctic summer of 1995 and the last field survey was carried out in 1996. Data show the existence of three different groups (or families of seismic events: 1 long period events, with a quasi-monochromatic spectral content (1-3 Hz peak frequency and a duration of more than 50 s, often occurring in small swarms lasting from several minutes to some day; 2 volcanic tremor, with a spectral shape similar to the long period events but with a duration of several minutes (2-10; 3 hybrid events, with a waveform characterised by the presence of a high frequency initial phase, followed by a low frequency phase with characteristics similar to those of the long period events. The high frequency phase of the hybrid events was analysed using polarisation techniques, showing the presence of P waves. This phase is presumably located at short epicentral distances and shallow source depth. All the analysed seismic events show back-azimuths between 120 and 330 degrees from north (corresponding to zones of volcanic activity showing no seismic activity in the middle of the caldera. Particle motion, Fourier spectral and spectrogram analysis show that the low frequency part of the three groups of the seismic signals have similar patterns. Moreover careful observations show that the high frequency phase which characterises the hybrid events is present in the long period and in the tremor events, even with lower signal to noise ratios. This evidence suggests that long period events are events in which the high frequency part is simply difficult to observe, due to a very

ANZA Seismic Network- From Monitoring to Science

Science.gov (United States)

Vernon, F.; Eakin, J.; Martynov, V.; Newman, R.; Offield, G.; Hindley, A.; Astiz, L.

2007-05-01

The ANZA Seismic Network (http:eqinfo.ucsd.edu) utilizes broadband and strong motion sensors with 24-bit dataloggers combined with real-time telemetry to monitor local and regional seismicity in southernmost California. The ANZA network provides real-time data to the IRIS DMC, California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN), other regional networks, and the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), in addition to providing near real-time information and monitoring to the greater San Diego community. Twelve high dynamic range broadband and strong motion sensors adjacent to the San Jacinto Fault zone contribute data for earthquake source studies and continue the monitoring of the seismic activity of the San Jacinto fault initiated 24 years ago. Five additional stations are located in the San Diego region with one more station on San Clemente Island. The ANZA network uses the advance wireless networking capabilities of the NSF High Performance Wireless Research and Education Network (http:hpwren.ucsd.edu) to provide the communication infrastructure for the real-time telemetry of Anza seismic stations. The ANZA network uses the Antelope data acquisition software. The combination of high quality hardware, communications, and software allow for an annual network uptime in excess of 99.5% with a median annual station real-time data return rate of 99.3%. Approximately 90,000 events, dominantly local sources but including regional and teleseismic events, comprise the ANZA network waveform database. All waveform data and event data are managed using the Datascope relational database. The ANZA network data has been used in a variety of scientific research including detailed structure of the San Jacinto Fault Zone, earthquake source physics, spatial and temporal studies of aftershocks, array studies of teleseismic body waves, and array studies on the source of microseisms. To augment the location, detection, and high frequency observations of the seismic source spectrum from local

Reassessing the 2006 Guerrero slow-slip event, Mexico : Implications for large earthquakes in the Guerrero Gap

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bekaert, D.P.S.; Hooper, A.; Wright, T.J.

2015-01-01

In Guerrero, Mexico, slow-slip events have been observed in a seismic gap, where no earthquakes have occurred since 1911. A rupture of the entire gap today could result in a Mw 8.2–8.4 earthquake. However, it remains unclear how slow-slip events change the stress field in the Guerrero seismic region

Seismic wave interaction with underground cavities

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, Felix M.; Esterhazy, Sofi; Perugia, Ilaria; Bokelmann, Götz

2016-04-01

Realization of the future Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) will require ensuring its compliance, making the CTBT a prime example of forensic seismology. Following indications of a nuclear explosion obtained on the basis of the (IMS) monitoring network further evidence needs to be sought at the location of the suspicious event. For such an On-Site Inspection (OSI) at a possible nuclear test site the treaty lists several techniques that can be carried out by the inspection team, including aftershock monitoring and the conduction of active seismic surveys. While those techniques are already well established, a third group of methods labeled as "resonance seismometry" is less well defined and needs further elaboration. A prime structural target that is expected to be present as a remnant of an underground nuclear explosion is a cavity at the location and depth the bomb was fired. Originally "resonance seismometry" referred to resonant seismic emission of the cavity within the medium that could be stimulated by an incident seismic wave of the right frequency and observed as peaks in the spectrum of seismic stations in the vicinity of the cavity. However, it is not yet clear which are the conditions for which resonant emissions of the cavity could be observed. In order to define distance-, frequency- and amplitude ranges at which resonant emissions could be observed we study the interaction of seismic waves with underground cavities. As a generic model for possible resonances we use a spherical acoustic cavity in an elastic full-space. To solve the forward problem for the full elastic wave field around acoustic spherical inclusions, we implemented an analytical solution (Korneev, 1993). This yields the possibility of generating scattering cross-sections, amplitude spectrums and synthetic seismograms for plane incident waves. Here, we focus on the questions whether or not we can expect resonant responses in the wave field scattered from the cavity. We show

Latest Pleistocene to Holocene thrust faulting paleoearthquakes at Monte Netto (Brescia, Italy): lessons learned from the Middle Ages seismic events in the Po Plain

Science.gov (United States)

Michetti, Alessandro Maria; Berlusconi, Andrea; Livio, Franz; Sileo, Giancanio; Zerboni, Andrea; Serva, Leonello; Vittori, Eutizio; Rodnight, Helena; Spötl, Christoph

2010-05-01

The seismicity of the Po Plain in Northern Italy is characterized by two strong Middle Ages earthquakes, the 1117, I° X MCS Verona, and the December 25, 1222, I° IX-X Brescia, events. Historical reports from these events describe relevant coseismic environmental effects, such as drainage changes, ground rupture and landslides. Due to the difficult interpretation of intensity data from such old seismic events, considerable uncertainty exists about their source parameters, and therefore about their causative tectonic structures. In a recent review, Stucchi et al. (2008) concluded that 'the historical data do not significantly help to constrain the assessment of the seismogenic potential of the area, which remains one of the most unknown, although potentially dangerous, seismic areas of the Italian region'. This issue needs therefore to be addressed by using the archaeological and geological evidence of past earthquakes, that is, archeoseismology and paleoseismology. Earthquake damage to archaeological sites in the study area has been the subject of several recent papers. Here we focus on new paleoseismological evidence, and in particular on the first observation of Holocene paleoseismic surface faulting in the Po Plain identified at the Monte Netto site, located ca. 10 km S of Brescia, in the area where the highest damage from the Christmas 1222 earthquake have been recorded. Monte Netto is a small hill, ca. 30 m higher than the surrounding piedmont plain, which represent the top of a growing fault-related fold belonging to the Quaternary frontal sector of the Southern Alps; the causative deep structure is a N-verging back thrust, well imaged in the industrial seismic reflection profiles kindly made available by ENI E&P. New trenching investigations have been conducted at the Cava Danesi of Monte Netto in October 2009, focused on the 1:10 scale analysis of the upper part of the 7 m high mid-Pleistocene to Holocene stratigraphic section exposed along the quarry

The Alabama, U.S.A., seismic event and strata collapse of May 7, 1986

Science.gov (United States)

Long, L.T.; Copeland, C.W.

1989-01-01

On May 7, 1986, the residents of Tuscaloosa, Alabama, felt a seismic event of local magnitude 3.6 that occurred at the same time as a rock burst and roof collapse in an active longwall coal mine. Visual inspection of the seismograms reveals a deficiency in energy at frequencies above 20 Hz compared to tectonic earthquakes or surface blasts. The predominance of energy below 5 Hz may explain reports of body wave magnitudes (mb) greater than 4.2. Also, 1.0 Hz surface waves were more strongly excited than body waves and may explain local felt effects more typically associated with greater epicentral distances. All recorded first motions were dilatational. The concentration of stations in the northern hemisphere allows reverse motion on an east-trending near-vertical plane or strike-slip motion on northwest or southeast trending planes. The reverse focal mechanism is preferred, because the area of roof collapse and the area of active longwall mining are located between two east-striking loose vertical fracture zones. The characteristics of the seismic event suggest that it might have been sudden shear failure resulting from accumulated strain energy in overlying strata behind an active longwall. Although an alternate interpretation of the focal mechanism as an implosion or shear failure in the strata above previously mined out areas is also allowed by the first motion data, this alternate intepretation is not supported by geological data. ?? 1989 Birkha??user Verlag.

Stress distribution and seismicity patterns of the 2011 seismic swarm in the Messinia basin, (South-Western Peloponnesus, Greece

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Chouliaras

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this investigation we examine the local stress field and the seismicity patterns associated with the 2011–2012 seismicity swarm in the Messinia basin, south-western Peloponnesus, Greece, using the seismological data of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA. During this swarm more than 2000 events were recorded in a 12 month period by the Hellenic Unified Seismological Network (HUSN and also by the additional local installation of four portable broadband seismographic stations by NOA.

The results indicate a Gaussian distribution of swarm activity and the development of a seismicity cluster in a pre-existing seismic gap within the Messinia basin. Centroid Moment Tensor solutions demonstrate a normal fault trending northwest–southeast and dipping to the southwest primarily due to an extensional stress field. During this seismicity swarm an epicentre migration of the three largest shocks is observed, from one end of the rupture zone in the north-western part of the cluster, towards the other edge of the rupture in the south-eastern part of the cluster. This migration is found to follow the Coulomb failure criterion that predicts the advancement and retardation of the stress field and the patterns of increases and decreases of the seismicity rate (b-value of the frequency–magnitude relation.

Monitoring and Characterizing the Geysering and Seismic Activity at the Lusi Mud Eruption Site, East Java, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Karyono, Karyono; Obermann, Anne; Mazzini, Adriano; Lupi, Matteo; Syafri, Ildrem; Abdurrokhim, Abdurrokhim; Masturyono, Masturyono; Hadi, Soffian

2016-04-01

The Lusi eruption began on May 29, 2006 in the northeast of Java Island, Indonesia, and to date is still active. Lusi is a newborn sedimentary-hosted hydrothermal system characterized by continuous expulsion of liquefied mud and breccias and geysering activity. Lusi is located upon the Watukosek fault system, a left lateral wrench system connecting the volcanic arc and the bakarc basin. This fault system is still periodically reactivated as shown by field data. In the framework of the Lusi Lab project (ERC grant n° 308126) we conducted several types of monitoring. Based on camera observations, we characterized the Lusi erupting activity by four main behaviors occurring cyclically: (1) Regular activity, which consists in the constant emission of water and mud breccias (i.e. viscous mud containing clay, silt, sand and clasts) associated with the constant expulsion of gas (mainly aqueous vapor with minor amounts of CO2 and CH4) (2) Geysering phase with intense bubbling, consisting in reduced vapor emission and more powerful bursting events that do not seem to have a regular pattern. (3) Geysering phase with intense vapor and degassing discharge and a typically dense plume that propagates up to 100 m height. (4) Quiescent phase marking the end of the geysering activity (and the observed cycle) with no gas emissions or bursts observed. To investigate the possible seismic activity beneath Lusi and the mechanisms controlling the Lusi pulsating behaviour, we deployed a network of 5 seismic stations and a HD camera around the Lusi crater. We characterize the observed types of seismic activity as tremor and volcano-tectonic events. Lusi tremor events occur in 5-10 Hz frequency band, while volcano tectonic events are abundant in the high frequencies range from 5 Hz until 25 Hz. We coupled the seismic monitoring with the images collected with the HD camera to study the correlation between the seismic tremor and the different phases of the geysering activity. Key words: Lusi

On-line monitoring and data reduction of seismic events at Gauribidanur array

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bharthur, R.N.; Rao, B.S.; Roy, F.

1977-01-01

Reduction of the threshold may improve the detection capability of the system, but it will lead to more spurious triggers. In order to overcome this problem, the nature of the spurious triggers is studied in detail. It is found that in general the cross correlation coefficient between the two beams viz. Ssup(A) and Ssup(B), due to spurious triggers has a maximum value of .4, where as the corresponding value of seismic events showed a minimum of .6. Therefore with the incorporation of a programme which suppresses all the triggers having a cross correlation coefficient of .4 and less, it will be possible to further bring down the threshold level. (author)

Design response spectra-compliant real and synthetic GMS for seismic analysis of seismically isolated nuclear reactor containment building

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmer Ali

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Due to the severe impacts of recent earthquakes, the use of seismic isolation is paramount for the safety of nuclear structures. The diversity observed in seismic events demands ongoing research to analyze the devastating attributes involved, and hence to enhance the sustainability of base-isolated nuclear power plants. This study reports the seismic performance of a seismically-isolated nuclear reactor containment building (NRCB under strong short-period ground motions (SPGMs and long-period ground motions (LPGMs. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission-based design response spectrum for the seismic design of nuclear power plants is stipulated as the reference spectrum for ground motion selection. Within the period range(s of interest, the spectral matching of selected records with the target spectrum is ensured using the spectral-compatibility approach. NRC-compliant SPGMs and LPGMs from the mega-thrust Tohoku earthquake are used to obtain the structural response of the base-isolated NRCB. To account for the lack of earthquakes in low-to-moderate seismicity zones and the gap in the artificial synthesis of long-period records, wavelet-decomposition based autoregressive moving average modeling for artificial generation of real ground motions is performed. Based on analysis results from real and simulated SPGMs versus LPGMs, the performance of NRCBs is discussed with suggestions for future research and seismic provisions.

Design response spectra-compliant real and synthetic GMS for seismic analysis of seismically isolated nuclear reactor containment building

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ali, Ahmer [ENVICO Consultants Co. Ltd., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Abu-Hayah, Nadin; Kim, Doo Kie [Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kunsan National University, Gunsan (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Sung Gook [Innose Tech Co., Ltd., Incheon (Korea, Republic of)

2017-06-15

Due to the severe impacts of recent earthquakes, the use of seismic isolation is paramount for the safety of nuclear structures. The diversity observed in seismic events demands ongoing research to analyze the devastating attributes involved, and hence to enhance the sustainability of base-isolated nuclear power plants. This study reports the seismic performance of a seismically-isolated nuclear reactor containment building (NRCB) under strong short-period ground motions (SPGMs) and long-period ground motions (LPGMs). The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission-based design response spectrum for the seismic design of nuclear power plants is stipulated as the reference spectrum for ground motion selection. Within the period range(s) of interest, the spectral matching of selected records with the target spectrum is ensured using the spectral-compatibility approach. NRC-compliant SPGMs and LPGMs from the mega-thrust Tohoku earthquake are used to obtain the structural response of the base-isolated NRCB. To account for the lack of earthquakes in low-to-moderate seismicity zones and the gap in the artificial synthesis of long-period records, wavelet-decomposition based autoregressive moving average modeling for artificial generation of real ground motions is performed. Based on analysis results from real and simulated SPGMs versus LPGMs, the performance of NRCBs is discussed with suggestions for future research and seismic provisions.

Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Trutnevyte, Evelina; Azevedo, Inês L.

2018-03-01

Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). We present the results of an international expert elicitation (n = 14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of an M ≥ 3 event range from 0.2%-95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2%-100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M ≥ 5 event span from 0.002%-2% during stimulation and 0.003%-3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If an induced M = 3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 000 inhabitants, most experts estimate a 50% probability that the loss is contained within 500 000 USD without any injuries or fatalities. In the case of an induced M = 5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and one fatality or none. As we observe a vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest documenting individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick the experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk.

Seismic analysis for conceptual design of HCCR TBM-set

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Dong Won, E-mail: dwlee@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Seong Dae; Jin, Hyung Gon; Lee, Eo Hwak; Kim, Suk-Kwon; Yoon, Jae Sung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Kyu In [Gentec Co., Daejeon, Republic of Korea (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Seungyon [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-11-01

Highlights: • The seismic analysis of KO HCCR TBM-set are performed. • The seismic envents like SL-1, SL-2, and SMHV are selected and evaluated with FEM code (ANSYS). • The results of the stresses and deformations are confirmed to meet the design criteria. - Abstract: Using the conceptual design of the Korean helium cooled ceramic reflector (HCCR) test blanket module (TBM) including the TBM-shield for testing in ITER, a seismic analysis is performed. According to the ITER TBM port plug (TBM PP) system load specifications, seismic events are selected as SL-1 (seismic level-1), SL-2 (seismic level-2), and SMHV (seismes maximaux historiquement vraisemblables, Maximum Histroically Probable Earthquakes). In a modal analysis a total of 50 modes are obtained. Then, a spectra response analysis for each seismic event is carried out using ANSYS based on the modal analysis results. For each event, the obtained Tresca stress is evaluated to confirm the design integrity, by comparing the resulting stress to the design criteria. The Tresca strain and displacement are also estimated for the HCCR TBM-set. From the analysis, it was concluded that the maximum stresses by the seismic events meet the design criteria, and the displacements are lower than the designed gap from the TBM PP frame. The results are provided to a load combination analysis.

Seismic dynamics in advance and after the recent strong earthquakes in Italy and New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

2017-12-01

We consider seismic events as a sequence of avalanches in self-organized system of blocks-and-faults of the Earth lithosphere and characterize earthquake series with the distribution of the control parameter, η = τ × 10B × (5-M) × L C of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE (where τ is inter-event time, B is analogous to the Gutenberg-Richter b-value, and C is fractal dimension of seismic locus). A systematic analysis of earthquake series in Central Italy and New Zealand, 1993-2017, suggests the existence, in a long-term, of different rather steady levels of seismic activity characterized with near constant values of η, which, in mid-term, intermittently switch at times of transitions associated with the strong catastrophic events. On such a transition, seismic activity, in short-term, may follow different scenarios with inter-event time scaling of different kind, including constant, logarithmic, power law, exponential rise/decay or a mixture of those. The results do not support the presence of universality in seismic energy release. The observed variability of seismic activity in advance and after strong (M6.0+) earthquakes in Italy and significant (M7.0+) earthquakes in New Zealand provides important constraints on modelling realistic earthquake sequences by geophysicists and can be used to improve local seismic hazard assessments including earthquake forecast/prediction methodologies. The transitions of seismic regime in Central Italy and New Zealand started in 2016 are still in progress and require special attention and geotechnical monitoring. It would be premature to make any kind of definitive conclusions on the level of seismic hazard which is evidently high at this particular moment of time in both regions. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No.16-17-00093.

Soil-structural interaction analysis of RBMK type NPP for seismic event. Progress report. From 1 July 1998 - 30 June 1999

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-01-01

The objective of the project is to assess the structural behavior and safety capacity of a RBMK-1000 MW Main Building Complex under critical combination of loads including seismic events. This project is part of the Coordinated Research Program carried out by International Atomic Energy Agency on safety of RBMK Type Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) in Relation to External Events. The nuclear power plant considered for this study is the Sosnovy Bor NPP, located near St.Petersburg, Russia. The Soviet standard design RBMK-1000 MW type units installed in Sosnovy Bor NPP were originally designed for a Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE) with a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.1 g. The relevant response spectra are not available for reference and assessment. The new international requirements for nuclear power plants in operation require site specific seismic hazard studies as a basis for the definition of a Review Level Earthquake (RLE) for reassessment of the structures and safety related equipment Ell - As the RLE site specific seismic data is still not available, the RLE earthquake spectra for Kozloduy NPP scaled to PGA=0.1 g were used in this study. This value is intentionally chosen for comparison purposes. The Russian design requirements (if design floor response spectra are available) will be compared with the international regulations. The scope of the study is to perform a Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) seismic response analysis of the referenced RBMK-11000 MW. Main Building Complex to evaluate the effect on the structural response of a greater than design earthquake. The analysis is focused on a realistic assessment of the structural response to a potentially higher earthquake level instead of a conservative design type analysis. Special attention is paid on the seismic response of the sub-structures in the safe shutdown path, as well as on the locations of the heavy equipment

Seismicity Precursors of the M6.0 2004 Parkfield and M7.0 1989Loma Prieta Earthquakes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Korneev, Valeri A.

2006-03-09

The M6.0 2004 Parkfield and M7.0 1989 Loma Prietastrike-slip earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault (SAF) were preceded byseismicity peaks occurring several months prior to the main events.Earthquakes directly within the SAF zone were intentionally excluded fromthe analysis because they manifest stress-release processes rather thanstress accumulation. The observed increase in seismicity is interpretedas a signature of the increasing stress level in the surrounding crust,whereas the peaks and the subsequent decrease in seismicity areattributed to damage-induced softening processes. Furthermore, in bothcases there is a distinctive zone of low seismic activity that surroundsthe epicentral region in the pre-event period. The increase of seismicityin the crust surrounding a potential future event and the development ofa low-seismicity epicentral zone can be regarded as promising precursoryinformation that could help signal the arrival of large earthquakes. TheGutenberg-Richter relationship (GRR) should allow extrapolation ofseismicity changes down to seismic noise level magnitudes. Thishypothesis is verified by comparison of seismic noise at 80 Hz with theParkfield M4 1993-1994 series, where noise peaks 5 months before theseries to about twice the background level.

VLF Observation of Long Ionospheric Recovery Events

Science.gov (United States)

Cotts, B. R.; Inan, U. S.

2006-12-01

On the evening of 20 November 1992, three early/fast events were observed on the great circle path (GCP) from the NAU transmitter in Puerto Rico to Gander (GA), Newfoundland. These events were found to have significantly longer recovery times (up to 20 minutes) than any previously documented events. Typical early/fast events and Lightning-induced Electron Precipitation (LEP) events affect the D-region ionosphere near the night-time VLF-reflection height of ~85 km and exhibit recovery to pre-event levels of gigantic jets. In this context, preliminary results indicate that the lightning-associated VLF long recovery events appear to be more common in oceanic thunderstorms. In this paper, we present occurrence statistics and other measured properties of VLF long recovery events, observed on all-sea based and land based VLF great circle paths.

Yield Estimation for Semipalatinsk Underground Nuclear Explosions Using Seismic Surface-wave Observations at Near-regional Distances

Science.gov (United States)

Adushkin, V. V.

- A statistical procedure is described for estimating the yields of underground nuclear tests at the former Soviet Semipalatinsk test site using the peak amplitudes of short-period surface waves observed at near-regional distances (Δ Semipalatinsk explosions, including the Soviet JVE explosion of September 14, 1988, and it is demonstrated that it provides seismic estimates of explosion yield which are typically within 20% of the yields determined for these same explosions using more accurate, non-seismic techniques based on near-source observations.

Local seismic network at the Olkiluoto site. Annual report for 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saari, J.; Malm, M.

2011-11-01

Excavation of the underground characterisation facility (the ONKALO) started in 2004. Before that, in February 2002, Posiva Oy established a local seismic network of six stations on the island of Olkiluoto. After that the number of seismic stations has increased gradually. In 2010 Posiva's permanent seismic network consists of 15 seismic stations and 20 triaxial sensors. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The investigation area includes two target areas. The larger target area, called seismic semiregional area, covers the Olkiluoto Island and its surroundings. The purpose is to monitor explosions and tectonic earthquakes in regional scale inside that area. The smaller target area is called the seismic ONKALO block, which is a 2 km *2 km *2 km cube surrounding the ONKALO. It is assumed that all the expected excavation induced events occur within this volume. At the moment the seismic ONKALO block includes ten seismic stations. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the ONKALO. This report gives the results of microseismic monitoring during 2010. In March 2010, the seismic network was upgraded by a new triaxial borehole seismometer in order to improve the sensitivity and the depth resolution inside the ONKALO block. The sensor is the second one inside the ONKALO. New PC for data processing and analysis with the new version of Linux operating system was installed. Also all software packages for data processing and analysis and for visualization were upgraded. The network has operated continuously in 2010. Altogether 1089 events have been located in the Olkiluoto area, in reported time period. Most of them (943) are explosions occurred inside the seismic semi-regional area and especially inside the seismic ONKALO block (895 events). The magnitudes of the observed explosions inside the semi-regional area range from M L = -1

A new moonquake catalog from Apollo 17 seismic data I: Lunar Seismic Profiling Experiment: Thermal moonquakes and implications for surface processes

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, R. C.; Dimech, J. L.; Phillips, D.; Molaro, J.; Schmerr, N. C.

2017-12-01

Apollo 17's Lunar Seismic Profiling Experiment's (LSPE) primary objective was to constrain the near-surface velocity structure at the landing site using active sources detected by a 100 m-wide triangular geophone array. The experiment was later operated in "listening mode," and early studies of these data revealed the presence of thermal moonquakes - short-duration seismic events associated with terminator crossings. However, the full data set has never been systematically analyzed for natural seismic signal content. In this study, we analyze 8 months of continuous LSPE data using an automated event detection technique that has previously successfully been applied to the Apollo 16 Passive Seismic Experiment data. We detected 50,000 thermal moonquakes from three distinct event templates, representing impulsive, intermediate, and emergent onset of seismic energy, which we interpret as reflecting their relative distance from the array. Impulsive events occur largely at sunrise, possibly representing the thermal "pinging" of the nearby lunar lander, while emergent events occur at sunset, possibly representing cracking or slumping in more distant surface rocks and regolith. Preliminary application of an iterative event location algorithm to a subset of the impulsive waveforms supports this interpretation. We also perform 3D modeling of the lunar surface to explore the relative contribution of the lander, known rocks and surrounding topography to the thermal state of the regolith in the vicinity of the Apollo 17 landing site over the course of the lunar diurnal cycle. Further development of both this model and the event location algorithm may permit definitive discrimination between different types of local diurnal events e.g. lander noise, thermally-induced rock breakdown, or fault creep on the nearby Lee-Lincoln scarp. These results could place important constraints on both the contribution of seismicity to regolith production, and the age of young lobate scarps.

Determination of the seismic moment tensor for local events in the South Shetland Islands and Bransfield Strait

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guidarelli, M.; Panza, G.F.

2005-06-01

We present the results of the analysis for a set of earthquakes recorded in the Bransfield Strait and the South Shetland Islands in the period 1997-1998, to determine focal mechanisms and source time functions. Events with magnitudes between 3 and 5.6 have been analysed, and the source parameters have been retrieved using a robust methodology (INPAR) that allows the reliable inversion of a limited number of noisy records. This methodology is particularly important in oceanic environments, where the presence of seismic noise and the small number of stations makes it difficult to analyse small magnitude events. (author)

Global and Regional 3D Tomography for Improved Seismic Event Location and Uncertainty in Explosion Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Downey, N.; Begnaud, M. L.; Hipp, J. R.; Ballard, S.; Young, C. S.; Encarnacao, A. V.

2017-12-01

The SALSA3D global 3D velocity model of the Earth was developed to improve the accuracy and precision of seismic travel time predictions for a wide suite of regional and teleseismic phases. Recently, the global SALSA3D model was updated to include additional body wave phases including mantle phases, core phases, reflections off the core-mantle boundary and underside reflections off the surface of the Earth. We show that this update improves travel time predictions and leads directly to significant improvements in the accuracy and precision of seismic event locations as compared to locations computed using standard 1D velocity models like ak135, or 2½D models like RSTT. A key feature of our inversions is that path-specific model uncertainty of travel time predictions are calculated using the full 3D model covariance matrix computed during tomography, which results in more realistic uncertainty ellipses that directly reflect tomographic data coverage. Application of this method can also be done at a regional scale: we present a velocity model with uncertainty obtained using data obtained from the University of Utah Seismograph Stations. These results show a reduction in travel-time residuals for re-located events compared with those obtained using previously published models.

Co-seismic deformation of the August 27, 2012 Mw 7.3 El Salvador and September 5, 2012 Mw 7.6 Costa Rica earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Geirsson, H.; La Femina, P. C.; DeMets, C.; Mattioli, G. S.; Hernández, D.

2013-05-01

We investigate the co-seismic deformation of two significant earthquakes that occurred along the Middle America trench in 2012. The August 27 Mw 7.3 El Salvador and September 5 Mw 7.6 Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica earthquakes, were examined using a combination of episodic and continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) data. USGS finite fault models based on seismic data predict fundamentally different characteristics for the two ruptures. The El Salvador event occurred in a historical seismic gap and on the shallow segment of the Middle America Trench main thrust, rupturing a large area, but with a low magnitude of slip. A small tsunami was observed along the coast in Nicaragua and El Salvador, additionally indicating near-trench rupture. Conversely, the Nicoya, Costa Rica earthquake was predicted to have an order of magnitude higher slip on a spatially smaller patch deeper on the main thrust. We present results from episodic and continuous geodetic GPS measurements made in conjunction with the two earthquakes, including data from newly installed COCONet (Continuously Operating Caribbean GPS Observational Network) sites. Episodic GPS measurements made in El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua following the earthquakes, allow us to estimate the co-seismic deformation field from both earthquakes. Because of the small magnitude of the El Salvador earthquake and its shallow rupture the observed co-seismic deformation is small (earthquake occurred directly beneath a seismic and geodetic network specifically designed to capture such events. The observed displacements exceeded 0.5 m and there is a significant post-seismic transient following the earthquake. We use our estimated co-seismic offsets for both earthquakes to model the magnitude and spatial variability of slip for these two events.

Recent Vs. Historical Seismicity Analysis For Banat Seismic Region (Western Part Of Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oros Eugen

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The present day seismic activity from a region reflects the active tectonics and can confirm the seismic potential of the seismogenic sources as they are modelled using the historical seismicity. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the last decade seismicity recorded in the Banat Seismic Region (western part of Romania and the historical seismicity of the region (Mw≥4.0. Four significant earthquake sequences have been recently localized in the region, three of them nearby the city of Timisoara (January 2012 and March 2013 and the fourth within Hateg Basin, South Carpathians (October 2013. These sequences occurred within the epicentral areas of some strong historical earthquakes (Mw≥5.0. The main events had some macroseismic effects on people up to some few kilometers from the epicenters. Our results update the Romanian earthquakes catalogue and bring new information along the local seismic hazard sources models and seismotectonics.

Analysis of induced seismicity at The Geysers geothermal field, California

Science.gov (United States)

Emolo, A.; Maercklin, N.; Matrullo, E.; Orefice, A.; Amoroso, O.; Convertito, V.; Sharma, N.; Zollo, A.

2012-12-01

seismicity studies of this geothermal field, we find that events occurring in the NW sector are on average deeper than in the SE area. To infer the present stress regime, we computed focal mechanisms of a large event data set with M > 2, using P-wave first-arrival polarities. The found fault-plane solutions show a dominant strike-slip and normal faulting mechanisms, with P and T axes coherently oriented with expected regional stress field for the area. We also determined the main seismic source parameters from a multi-step, iterative inversion of P-wave displacement spectra, assuming a four-parameters spectral model and a constant-Q attenuation mechanism. In particular, we computed seismic moments, source radii and stress drops. We observe a self-similar scaling of source parameters in the whole investigated magnitude range, with a nearly constant stress-drop of 20 and 120 MPa depending on the use of Brune (1970) or Madariaga (1976)'s source model respectively.

Hanford annual first quarter seismic report, fiscal year 1998: Seismicity on and near the Hanford Site, Pasco Basin, Washington

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hartshorn, D.C.; Reidel, S.P.; Rohay, A.C.

1998-02-01

Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the US Department of Energy and its contractors. The staff also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of an earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network (EWRN) consist of 41 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. The operational rate for the first quarter of FY98 for stations in the HSN was 98.5%. The operational rate for the first quarter of FY98 for stations of the EWRN was 99.1%. For the first quarter of FY98, the acquisition computer triggered 184 times. Of these triggers 23 were local earthquakes: 7 in the Columbia River Basalt Group, and 16 in the crystalline basement. The geologic and tectonic environments where these earthquakes occurred are discussed in this report. The most significant earthquakes in this quarter were a series of six events which occurred in the Cold Creek depression (approximately 4 km SW of the 200 West Area), between November 6 and November 11, 1997. All events were deep (> 15 km) and were located in the crystalline basement. The first event was the largest, having a magnitude of 3.49 M{sub c}. Two events on November 9, 1997 had magnitudes of 2.81 and 2.95 M{sub c}, respectively. The other events had magnitudes between 0.7 and 1.2 M{sub c}.

Experimental study of seismic behaviour of electric equipment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buland, P.; Henry, J.Y.; Simon, D.

1992-02-01

Safety analysis of a nuclear power plant imposes taking into account a number of impacts both internal and external, seismic events being one of them. Approach taken for seismicity is deterministic and is based on keeping the safety margin on a high enough level concerning the impact. The objective is to ensure the integrity and proper functioning of the utility in spite of a seismic event. In order to achieve these objectives, design, construction and operation regulations are analysed. Seismic behaviour related to design and construction regulations is validated, in order to maintain the proposed approach

Seismic Data Gathering and Validation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-02-01

Three recent earthquakes in the last seven years have exceeded their design basis earthquake values (so it is implied that damage to SSC’s should have occurred). These seismic events were recorded at North Anna (August 2011, detailed information provided in [Virginia Electric and Power Company Memo]), Fukushima Daichii and Daini (March 2011 [TEPCO 1]), and Kaswazaki-Kariwa (2007, [TEPCO 2]). However, seismic walk downs at some of these plants indicate that very little damage occurred to safety class systems and components due to the seismic motion. This report presents seismic data gathered for two of the three events mentioned above and recommends a path for using that data for two purposes. One purpose is to determine what margins exist in current industry standard seismic soil-structure interaction (SSI) tools. The second purpose is the use the data to validated seismic site response tools and SSI tools. The gathered data represents free field soil and in-structure acceleration time histories data. Gathered data also includes elastic and dynamic soil properties and structural drawings. Gathering data and comparing with existing models has potential to identify areas of uncertainty that should be removed from current seismic analysis and SPRA approaches. Removing uncertainty (to the extent possible) from SPRA’s will allow NPP owners to make decisions on where to reduce risk. Once a realistic understanding of seismic response is established for a nuclear power plant (NPP) then decisions on needed protective measures, such as SI, can be made.

Corroborating a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for greater Tokyo from historical intensity observations

Science.gov (United States)

Bozkurt, S.; Stein, R.; Toda, S.

2006-12-01

The long recorded history of earthquakes in Japan affords an opportunity to forecast seismic shaking exclusively from past observations of shaking. For this we analyzed 10,000 intensity observations recorded during AD 1600-2000 in a 350 x 350 km area centered on Tokyo in a Geographic Information System. A frequency-intensity curve is found for each 5 x 5 km cell, and from this the probability of exceeding any intensity level can be estimated. The principal benefits of this approach is that it builds the fewest possible assumptions into a probabilistic seismic forecast, it includes site and source effects without imposing this behavior, and we do not need to know the size or location of any earthquake or the location and slip rate of any fault. The cost is that we must abandon any attempt to make a time-dependent forecast, which could be quite different. We believe the method is suitable to many applications of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, and to other regions. The two key assumptions are that the slope of the observed frequency-intensity relation at every site is the same, and that the 400-year record is long enough to encompass the full range of seismic behavior. Tests we conduct suggest that both assumptions are sound. The resulting 30-year probability of IJMA>=6 shaking (roughly equivalent to PGA>=0.9 g or MMI=IX-X) is 30-40% in Tokyo, Kawasaki, and Yokohama, and 10-15% in Chiba and Tsukuba, the range reflecting spatial variability and curve-fitting alternatives. The strongest shaking is forecast along the margins of Tokyo Bay, within the river sediments extending northwest from Tokyo, and at coastal sites near the plate boundary faults. We also produce long- term exceedance maps of peak ground acceleration for building code regulations, and short-term hazard maps associated with hypothetical catastrophe bonds. Our results for greater Tokyo resemble our independent Poisson probability developed from conventional seismic hazard analysis, as well as

Observations and modeling of seismic background noise

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Jon R.

1993-01-01

The preparation of this report had two purposes. One was to present a catalog of seismic background noise spectra obtained from a worldwide network of seismograph stations. The other purpose was to refine and document models of seismic background noise that have been in use for several years. The second objective was, in fact, the principal reason that this study was initiated and influenced the procedures used in collecting and processing the data.With a single exception, all of the data used in this study were extracted from the digital data archive at the U.S. Geological Survey's Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL). This archive dates from 1972 when ASL first began deploying digital seismograph systems and collecting and distributing digital data under the sponsorship of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). There have been many changes and additions to the global seismograph networks during the past twenty years, but perhaps none as significant as the current deployment of very broadband seismographs by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the University of California San Diego (UCSD) under the scientific direction of the IRIS consortium. The new data acquisition systems have extended the bandwidth and resolution of seismic recording, and they utilize high-density recording media that permit the continuous recording of broadband data. The data improvements and continuous recording greatly benefit and simplify surveys of seismic background noise.Although there are many other sources of digital data, the ASL archive data were used almost exclusively because of accessibility and because the data systems and their calibration are well documented for the most part. Fortunately, the ASL archive contains high-quality data from other stations in addition to those deployed by the USGS. Included are data from UCSD IRIS/IDA stations, the Regional Seismic Test Network (RSTN) deployed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and the TERRAscope network

Characterizing Micro- and Macro-Scale Seismicity from Bayou Corne, Louisiana

Science.gov (United States)

Baig, A. M.; Urbancic, T.; Karimi, S.

2013-12-01

The initiation of felt seismicity in Bayou Corne, Louisiana, coupled with other phenomena detected by residents on the nearby housing development, prompted a call to install a broadband seismic network to monitor subsurface deformation. The initial deployment was in place to characterize the deformation contemporaneous with the formation of a sinkhole located in close proximity to a salt dome. Seismic events generated during this period followed a swarm-like behaviour with moment magnitudes culminating around Mw2.5. However, the seismic data recorded during this sequence suffer from poor signal to noise, onsets that are very difficult to pick, and the presence of a significant amount of energy arriving later in the waveforms. Efforts to understand the complexity in these waveforms are ongoing, and involve invoking the complexities inherent in recording in a highly attenuating swamp overlying a complex three-dimensional structure with the strong material property contrast of the salt dome. In order to understand the event character, as well as to locally lower the completeness threshold of the sequence, a downhole array of 15 Hz sensors was deployed in a newly drilled well around the salt dome. Although the deployment lasted a little over a month in duration, over 1000 events were detected down to moment magnitude -Mw3. Waveform quality tended to be excellent, with very distinct P and S wave arrivals observable across the array for most events. The highest magnitude events were seen as well on the surface network and allowed for the opportunity to observe the complexities introduced by the site effects, while overcoming the saturation effects on the higher-frequency downhole geophones. This hybrid downhole and surface array illustrates how a full picture of subsurface deformation is only made possible by combining the high-frequency downhole instrumentation to see the microseismicity complemented with a broadband array to accurately characterize the source

U-Th dating of broken speleothems from Cacahuamilpa cave, Mexico: Are they recording past seismic events?

Science.gov (United States)

Méjean, Pauline; Garduño-Monroy, Victor-Hugo; Pinti, Daniele L.; Ghaleb, Bassam; Bouvier, Laura; Gomez-Vasconcelos, Martha G.; Tremblay, Alain

2015-01-01

Cacahuamilpa cave is one of the largest karst systems in Central Mexico. The cave contains numerous massive speleothems broken and fallen following oriented directions, damaged during cataclysmic geological events. One fallen and two broken speleothems were sampled in the Cacahuamilpa cave for dating the rupture event using measured U-Th disequilibrium ages. A total of eight small carbonate cores were drilled perpendicular and longitudinal to the rupture surface. Results showed three groups of ages (weighted average): 0.95 ± 0.02 ka, 28.8 ± 0.2 ka and 88.0 ± 0.7 ka. This indicates that the construction of the Cacahuamilpa karst system, for which no absolute ages existed before this study, initiated at least since Late Pleistocene. The first two groups of ages might be related to two distinct episodes of intense seismic activity. Calculated minimum horizontal ground acceleration and frequency values of the seismic events needed to create the rupture of the stalagmites dated at 0.95 ± 0.02 ka and 28.8 ± 0.2 ka range between 1.3 and 2.0 m s-2 and between 13.4 and 20.8 Hz, respectively. These parameters are compatible with earthquakes of magnitude equal or higher than 7 M, with an epicentral distance between 50 and 100 km from the Cacahuamilpa cave. The stalagmite rupture dated at 88.0 ± 0.7 ka might result from the invasion of the cave by one of the older lahars deposits of the nearby volcano Nevado del Toluca, and successively fell by gravity instability.

Solar-terrestrial effect controls seismic activity to a large extent (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Duma, G.

2010-12-01

Several observational results and corresponding publications in the 20 century indicate that earthquakes in many regions happen systematically in dependence on the time of day and on the season as well. In the recent decade, studies on this topic have also been intensively performed at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Vienna. Any natural effect on Earth which systematically appears at certain hours of the day or at a special season can solely be caused by a solar or lunar influence. And actually, statistic results on seismic activity reveal a correlation with the solar cycles. Examples of this seismic performance are shown. To gain more clarity about these effects, the three-hour magnetic index Kp, which characterizes the magnetic field disturbances, mainly caused by the solar particle radiation, the solar wind, was correlated with the seismic energy released by earthquakes over decades. Kp is determined from magnetic records of 13 observatories worldwide and continuously published by ISGI, France. It is demonstrated that a highly significant correlation between the geomagnetic index Kp and the annual seismic energy release in regions at latitudes between 35 and 60° N exists. Three regions of continental size were investigated, using the USGS (PDE) earthquake catalogue data. In the period 1974-2009 the Kp cycle periods range between 9 and 12 years, somewhat different to the sunspot number cycles of 11 years. Seismicity follows the Kp cycles with high coincidence. A detailed analysis of this correlation for N-America reveals, that the sum of released energy by earthquakes per year changes by a factor up to 100 with Kp. It is shown that during years of high Kp there happen e.g. 1 event M7, 4 events M6 and 30 events M5 per year, instead of only 10 events M5 in years with lowest Kp. Almost the same relation appears in other regions of continental size, with the same significance. The seismicity in S-America clearly follows the Kp cycles

Observations of short period seismic scattered waves by small seismic arrays

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Simini

1997-06-01

Full Text Available The most recent observations of well correlated seismic phases in the high frequency coda of local earthquakes recorded throughout the world are reported. In particular the main results, obtained on two active volcanoes, Teide and Deception, using small array are described. The ZLC (Zero Lag Cross-correlation method and polarization analysis have been applied to the data in order to distinguish the main phases in the recorded seismograms and their azimuths and apparent velocities. The results obtained at the Teide volcano demonstrate that the uncorrelated part of the seismograms may be produced by multiple scattering from randomly distributed heterogeneity, while the well correlated part, showing SH type polarization or the possible presence of Rayleigh surface waves, may be generated by single scattering by strong scatterers. At the Deception Volcano strong scattering, strongly focused in a precise direction, is deduced from the data. In that case, all the coda radiation is composed of surface waves.

Seismic risk assessment of a BWR: status report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chuang, T.Y.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Wells, J.E.; Johnson, J.J.

1985-02-01

The seismic risk methodology developed in the US NRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant, a pressurized water reactor (PWR). A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models was developed and analyzed. The SSMRP methodology can equally be applied to a boiling water reactor (BWR). To demonstrate its applicability, to identify fundamental differences in seismic risk between a PWR and a BWR, and to provide a basis of comparison of seismic risk between a PWR and a BWR when analyzed with comparable methodology and assumptions, a seismic risk analysis is being performed on the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant

Characteristic Seismic Waves Associated with Cryosphere Dynamics in Eastern Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masaki Kanao

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Several kinds of natural source signals are recorded by seismic exploration stations on the continental ice sheet in Eastern Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, during 2002 austral summer. They include not only tectonic earthquakes, but also ice-related phenomena possibly involving recent global climate change. The recorded signals are classified into (1 teleseismic events, (2 local ice quakes, and (3 unidentified events (X-phases. The teleseismic waves show the high signal-to-noise ratio in spite of the small magnitude of the event; this indicates that it is highly feasible to study not only the local shallow structure but also the deep structure of the earth by using teleseismic events. Frequency spectra of the all waveforms represent discordances along the observation seismic profile. The abrupt change of topography in the valley along the seismic profile might cause both the anomalous frequency content and travel times. Finally, an origin of the X-phases is speculated as the intraplate earthquakes or possibly large ice-quakes (glacial earthquakes around Antarctica, involving global warming appeared in polar region.

A GIS approach to seismic risk assessment with an application to mining-related seismicity in Johannesburg, South Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Liebenberg, Keagen; Smit, Ansie; Coetzee, Serena; Kijko, Andrzej

2017-08-01

The majority of seismic activity in South Africa is related to extensive mining operations, usually in close proximity to densely populated areas where a relatively weak seismic event could cause damage. Despite a significant decrease in mining operations in the Witwatersrand area, the number of seismic events appears to be increasing and is attributed to the acid mine drainage problem. The increased seismicity is raising concern amongst disaster management centres and in the insurance industry. A better understanding is required of the vulnerability and the size of the potential loss of people and infrastructure in densely populated Johannesburg and its surrounding areas. Results of a deterministic seismic risk, vulnerability, and loss assessment are presented by making use of a geographic information system (GIS). The results illustrate the benefits of using GIS and contribute to a better understanding of the risk, which can assist in improving disaster preparedness.

Rockfall induced seismic signals: case study in Montserrat, Catalonia

Science.gov (United States)

Vilajosana, I.; Suriñach, E.; Abellán, A.; Khazaradze, G.; Garcia, D.; Llosa, J.

2008-08-01

After a rockfall event, a usual post event survey includes qualitative volume estimation, trajectory mapping and determination of departing zones. However, quantitative measurements are not usually made. Additional relevant quantitative information could be useful in determining the spatial occurrence of rockfall events and help us in quantifying their size. Seismic measurements could be suitable for detection purposes since they are non invasive methods and are relatively inexpensive. Moreover, seismic techniques could provide important information on rockfall size and location of impacts. On 14 February 2007 the Avalanche Group of the University of Barcelona obtained the seismic data generated by an artificially triggered rockfall event at the Montserrat massif (near Barcelona, Spain) carried out in order to purge a slope. Two 3 component seismic stations were deployed in the area about 200 m from the explosion point that triggered the rockfall. Seismic signals and video images were simultaneously obtained. The initial volume of the rockfall was estimated to be 75 m3 by laser scanner data analysis. After the explosion, dozens of boulders ranging from 10-4 to 5 m3 in volume impacted on the ground at different locations. The blocks fell down onto a terrace, 120 m below the release zone. The impact generated a small continuous mass movement composed of a mixture of rocks, sand and dust that ran down the slope and impacted on the road 60 m below. Time, time-frequency evolution and particle motion analysis of the seismic records and seismic energy estimation were performed. The results are as follows: 1 A rockfall event generates seismic signals with specific characteristics in the time domain; 2 the seismic signals generated by the mass movement show a time-frequency evolution different from that of other seismogenic sources (e.g. earthquakes, explosions or a single rock impact). This feature could be used for detection purposes; 3 particle motion plot analysis shows

Detecting earthquakes over a seismic network using single-station similarity measures

Science.gov (United States)

Bergen, Karianne J.; Beroza, Gregory C.

2018-06-01

New blind waveform-similarity-based detection methods, such as Fingerprint and Similarity Thresholding (FAST), have shown promise for detecting weak signals in long-duration, continuous waveform data. While blind detectors are capable of identifying similar or repeating waveforms without templates, they can also be susceptible to false detections due to local correlated noise. In this work, we present a set of three new methods that allow us to extend single-station similarity-based detection over a seismic network; event-pair extraction, pairwise pseudo-association, and event resolution complete a post-processing pipeline that combines single-station similarity measures (e.g. FAST sparse similarity matrix) from each station in a network into a list of candidate events. The core technique, pairwise pseudo-association, leverages the pairwise structure of event detections in its network detection model, which allows it to identify events observed at multiple stations in the network without modeling the expected moveout. Though our approach is general, we apply it to extend FAST over a sparse seismic network. We demonstrate that our network-based extension of FAST is both sensitive and maintains a low false detection rate. As a test case, we apply our approach to 2 weeks of continuous waveform data from five stations during the foreshock sequence prior to the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique earthquake. Our method identifies nearly five times as many events as the local seismicity catalogue (including 95 per cent of the catalogue events), and less than 1 per cent of these candidate events are false detections.

Patterns of Seismicity Associated with USGS Identified Areas of Potentially Induced Seismicity.

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, Caitlin; Halihan, Todd

2018-03-13

A systematic review across U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) identified potentially induced seismic locations was conducted to discover seismic distance patterns and trends over time away from injection disposal wells. Previous research indicates a 10 km (6 miles) average where the majority of induced seismicity is expected to occur within individual locations, with some areas reporting a larger radius of 35 km (22 miles) to over 70 km (43 miles). This research analyzed earthquake occurrences within nine USGS locations where specified wells were identified as contributors to induced seismicity to determine distance patterns from disposal wells or outward seismic migration over time using established principles of hydrogeology. Results indicate a radius of 31.6 km (20 miles) where 90% of felt earthquakes occur among locations, with the closest proximal felt seismic events, on average, occurring 3 km (1.9 miles) away from injection disposal wells. The results of this research found distance trends across multiple locations of potentially induced seismicity. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

Estimation of finite seismic source parameters for selected events of the West Bohemia year 2008 seismic swarm

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kolář, Petr; Růžek, Bohuslav

2015-01-01

Roč. 19, č. 2 (2015), s. 403-421 ISSN 1383-4649 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP210/10/1728 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : West Bohemia year 2008 seismic swarm * finite seismic source * stopping phases * stress drop Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.550, year: 2015

The 2017 North Korea M6 seismic sequence: moment tensor, source time function, and aftershocks

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, S.; Zhan, Z.; Chu, R.; He, X.

2017-12-01

On September 3rd, 2017, an M6 seismic event occurred in North Korea, with location near previous nuclear test sites. The event features strong P waves and short period Rayleigh waves are observed in contrast to weak S waves, suggesting mostly explosion mechanism. We performed joint inversion for moment tensor and depth with both local and teleseismic waveforms, and find that the event is shallow with mostly isotropic yet substantial non-isotropic components. Deconvolution of seismic waveforms of this event with respect to previous nuclear test events shows clues of complexity in source time function. The event is followed by smaller earthquakes, as early as 8.5 minutes and lasted at least to October. The later events occurred in a compact region, and show clear S waves, suggesting double couple focal mechanism. Via analyzing Rayleigh wave spectrum, these smaller events are found to be shallow. Relative locations, difference in waveforms of the events are used to infer their possible links and generation mechanism.

Local seismic network at the Olkiluoto site. Annual Report for 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saari, J.; Lakio, A.

2008-05-01

In February 2002, Posiva Oy established a local seismic network of six stations on the island of Olkiluoto. Later, in June 2004, the seismic network was expanded with two new seismic stations. At that time started the excavation of the underground characterisation facility (the ONKALO) and the basic operation procedure was changed more suitable for the demands of the new situation. In the beginning of 2006, the target area of the seismic monitoring expanded to semiregional scale. Four new seismic stations started in the beginning of February 2006 and the focus of interpretation was expanded to an area, called the seismic semi-regional area. At the end of 2006, two new borehole geophones were installed in order to improve the sensitivity and the depth resolution of the measurements inside the ONKALO block. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The studies include both tectonic and excavation-induced microearthquakes. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the ONKALO. This report gives the results of microseismic monitoring during the year 2007. Also the changes in the structure and the operation procedure of the network are described. The true orientation of the borehole sensor OL-OS13 was calculated. The correct orientation of triaxial seismometer is essential when the fault plane solution of an earthquake is calculated. The other borehole sensor OL-OS14 was permanently disconnected in October 2007. The network has operated continuously in 2007. Altogether 2207 events have been located in the Olkiluoto area, in reported time period. Altogether 2207 events have been located in 2007. Most of them (1912) are explosions occurred inside the seismic semiregional area and especially inside the ONKALO block (1891 events). The magnitudes of the observed events inside the semi-regional area range from ML = -2.1 to ML = 1.5 (ML

Tools for educational access to seismic data

Science.gov (United States)

Taber, J. J.; Welti, R.; Bravo, T. K.; Hubenthal, M.; Frechette, K.

2017-12-01

Student engagement can be increased both by providing easy access to real data, and by addressing newsworthy events such as recent large earthquakes. IRIS EPO has a suite of access and visualization tools that can be used for such engagement, including a set of three tools that allow students to explore global seismicity, use seismic data to determine Earth structure, and view and analyze near-real-time ground motion data in the classroom. These tools are linked to online lessons that are designed for use in middle school through introductory undergraduate classes. The IRIS Earthquake Browser allows discovery of key aspects of plate tectonics, earthquake locations (in pseudo 3D) and seismicity rates and patterns. IEB quickly displays up to 20,000 seismic events over up to 30 years, making it one of the most responsive, practical ways to visualize historical seismicity in a browser. Maps are bookmarkable and preserve state, meaning IEB map links can be shared or worked into a lesson plan. The Global Seismogram Plotter automatically creates visually clear seismic record sections from selected large earthquakes that are tablet-friendly and can also to be printed for use in a classroom without computers. The plots are designed to be appropriate for use with no parameters to set, but users can also modify the plots, such as including a recording station near a chosen location. A guided exercise is provided where students use the record section to discover the diameter of Earth's outer core. Students can pick and compare phase arrival times onscreen which is key to performing the exercise. A companion station map shows station locations and further information and is linked to the record section. jAmaSeis displays seismic data in real-time from either a local instrument and/or from remote seismic stations that stream data using standard seismic data protocols, and can be used in the classroom or as a public display. Users can filter data, fit a seismogram to travel time

The Community Seismic Network: Enabling Observations Through Citizen Science Participation

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, M. D.; Clayton, R. W.; Heaton, T. H.; Bunn, J.; Guy, R.; Massari, A.; Chandy, K. M.

2017-12-01

The Community Seismic Network is a dense accelerometer array deployed in the greater Los Angeles area and represents the future of densely instrumented urban cities where localized vibration measurements are collected continuously throughout the free-field and built environment. The hardware takes advantage of developments in the semiconductor industry in the form of inexpensive MEMS accelerometers that are each coupled with a single board computer. The data processing and archival architecture borrows from developments in cloud computing and network connectedness. The ability to deploy densely in the free field and in upper stories of mid/high-rise buildings is enabled by community hosts for sensor locations. To this end, CSN has partnered with the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD), the NASA-Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), and commercial and civic building owners to host sensors. At these sites, site amplification estimates from RMS noise measurements illustrate the lateral variation in amplification over length scales of 100 m or less, that correlate with gradients in the local geology such as sedimentary basins that abut crystalline rock foothills. This is complemented by high-resolution, shallow seismic velocity models obtained using an H/V method. In addition, noise statistics are used to determine the reliability of sites for ShakeMap and earthquake early warning data. The LAUSD and JPL deployments are examples of how situational awareness and centralized warning products such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast are enabled by citizen science participation. Several buildings have been instrumented with at least one triaxial accelerometer per floor, providing measurements for real-time structural health monitoring through local, customized displays. For real-time and post-event evaluation, the free-field and built environment CSN data and products illustrate the feasibility of order-of-magnitude higher spatial resolution mapping compared to what is currently

New seismic monitoring observation system and data accessibility at Syowa Station

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masaki Kanao

1999-03-01

Full Text Available The seismic observation system at Syowa Station, East Antarctica was fully replaced in the wintering season of the 38th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition (JARE-38 in 1996-1998. The old seismographic vault constructed in 1970 was closed at the end of JARE-38 because of cumulative damage to the inner side of the vault by continuous flowing in of water from walls in summer and its freezing in winter. All the seismometers were moved to a new seismographic hut (69°00′24.0″S, 39°35′06.0″E and 20m above mean sea level in April 1997. Seismic signals of the short-period (HES and broadband (STS-1 seismometers in the new hut are transmitted to the Earth Science Laboratory (ESL via analog cable 600m in length. The new acquisition system was installed in the ESL with 6-channel 24-bit A/D converters for both sensor signals. All digitized data are automatically transmitted from the A/D converter to a workstation via TCP/IP protocol. After parallel observations with the old acquisition system by personal computers and the new system during the wintering season of JARE-38,the main system was changed to the new one, which has some advantages for both the reduction of daily maintenance efforts and the data transport/communication processes via Internet by use of LAN at the station. In this report, details of the new seismographic hut and the recording system are described. Additionally, the seismic data accessibility for public use, including Internet service, is described.

Analysis of the effects of corrosion probe on riser 241-AN-102-WST-16 during seismic event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ZIADA, H.H.

1998-01-01

This analysis supports the installation activity of the corrosion probe in Tank 241-AN-102. The probe is scheduled to be installed in Riser 241-AN-102-WST-16 (formerly known as Riser 15B). The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the potential effect of the corrosion probe on the riser during a credible seismic event. The previous analysis (HNF 1997a) considered only pump jet impingement loading

Coherent Waves in Seismic Researches

Science.gov (United States)

Emanov, A.; Seleznev, V. S.

2013-05-01

Development of digital processing algorithms of seismic wave fields for the purpose of useful event picking to study environment and other objects is the basis for the establishment of new seismic techniques. In the submitted paper a fundamental property of seismic wave field coherence is used. The authors extended conception of coherence types of observed wave fields and devised a technique of coherent component selection from observed wave field. Time coherence and space coherence are widely known. In this paper conception "parameter coherence" has been added. The parameter by which wave field is coherent can be the most manifold. The reason is that the wave field is a multivariate process described by a set of parameters. Coherence in the first place means independence of linear connection in wave field of parameter. In seismic wave fields, recorded in confined space, in building-blocks and stratified mediums time coherent standing waves are formed. In prospecting seismology at observation systems with multiple overlapping head waves are coherent by parallel correlation course or, in other words, by one measurement on generalized plane of observation system. For detail prospecting seismology at observation systems with multiple overlapping on basis of coherence property by one measurement of area algorithms have been developed, permitting seismic records to be converted to head wave time sections which have neither reflected nor other types of waves. Conversion in time section is executed on any specified observation base. Energy storage of head waves relative to noise on basis of multiplicity of observation system is realized within area of head wave recording. Conversion on base below the area of wave tracking is performed with lack of signal/noise ratio relative to maximum of this ratio, fit to observation system. Construction of head wave time section and dynamic plots a basis of automatic processing have been developed, similar to CDP procedure in method of

Regional seismic observations of the Non-Proliferation Experiment at the Livermore NTS Network

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walter, W.R.; Mayeda, K.; Patton, H.J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)] [and others

1994-12-31

The Non-Proliferation Experiment (NPE), a 1-kiloton chemical explosion in N-tunnel at Rainier Mesa on the Nevada Test Site (NTS), was recorded by the four station, regional seismic Livermore NTS Network, (LNN). In this study we compare the NPE`s seismic yield, frequency content, and discrimination performance with other NTS events recorded at LNN. Preliminary findings include: The NPE LNN average magnitudes are 4.16 for m{sub b}(P{sub n}) and 4.59 for m{sub b}(L{sub g}). Using published magnitude-yield relations gives nuclear equivalent yields of 2.3 and 2.2 kilotons respectively, implying enhanced coupling of chemical relative to nuclear explosions. A comparison of the NPE seismograms with those with similar magnitude N-tunnel nuclear explosions shows remarkable similarity over the frequency band 0.5 to 5.0 Hz. Outside this band the explosions show more variability, with the NPE having the least relative energy below 0.5 Hz and the most energy above 5 Hz when scaled by magnitude. Considering the variability within the N-tunnel nuclear explosions, these low- and high-frequency NPE-nuclear differences may not reflect chemical-nuclear source differences. The NPE was compared to a large number of NTS nuclear explosions and earthquakes as part of an ongoing short-period discrimination study of P{sub N}/L{sub g},P{sub g}/L{sub g}, and spectral ratios in the P{sub n}, P{sub g},L{sub g}, and coda phases. For these discriminants, the NPE looks very similar to N-tunnel nuclear explosions and other NTS nuclear explosions, implying seismic identification of contained, non-ripple-fired, chemical explosions as non-nuclear may not be possible. However, such blasts might serve as surrogate nuclear explosions when calibrating seismic discriminants in regions where nuclear testing has not occurred.

Dynamics of the Oso-Steelhead landslide from broadband seismic analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hibert, C.; Stark, C. P.; Ekström, G.

2015-06-01

We carry out a combined analysis of the short- and long-period seismic signals generated by the devastating Oso-Steelhead landslide that occurred on 22 March 2014. The seismic records show that the Oso-Steelhead landslide was not a single slope failure, but a succession of multiple failures distinguished by two major collapses that occurred approximately 3 min apart. The first generated long-period surface waves that were recorded at several proximal stations. We invert these long-period signals for the forces acting at the source, and obtain estimates of the first failure runout and kinematics, as well as its mass after calibration against the mass-centre displacement estimated from remote-sensing imagery. Short-period analysis of both events suggests that the source dynamics of the second event is more complex than the first. No distinct long-period surface waves were recorded for the second failure, which prevents inversion for its source parameters. However, by comparing the seismic energy of the short-period waves generated by both events we are able to estimate the volume of the second. Our analysis suggests that the volume of the second failure is about 15-30% of the total landslide volume, giving a total volume mobilized by the two events between 7 × 106 and 10 × 106 m3, in agreement with estimates from ground observations and lidar mapping.

Performances of the UNDERground SEISmic array for the analysis of seismicity in Central Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Scarpa

2006-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the first results from the operation of a dense seismic array deployed in the underground Physics Laboratories at Gran Sasso (Central Italy. The array consists of 13 short-period, three-component seismometers with an aperture of about 550 m and average sensor spacing of 90 m. The reduced sensor spacing, joined to the spatially-white character of the background noise allows for quick and reliable detection of coherent wavefront arrivals even under very poor SNR conditions. We apply high-resolution frequency-slowness and polarization analyses to a set of 27 earthquakes recorded between November, 2002, and September, 2003, at epicentral distances spanning the 20-140 km interval. We locate these events using inversion of P- and S-wave backazimuths and S-P delay times, and compare the results with data from the Centralized National Seismic Network catalog. For the case of S-wave, the discrepancies among the two set of locations never exceed 10 km; the largest errors are instead observed for the case of P-waves. This observation may be due to the fact that the small array aperture does not allow for robust assessment of waves propagating at high apparent velocities. This information is discussed with special reference to the directions of future studies aimed at elucidating the location of seismogenetic structures in Central Italy from extended analysis of the micro-seismicity.

Analyzing time-ordered event data with missed observations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dokter, Adriaan M.; van Loon, E. Emiel; Fokkema, Wimke; Lameris, Thomas K.; Nolet, Bart A.; van der Jeugd, Henk P.

2017-01-01

A common problem with observational datasets is that not all events of interest may be detected. For example, observing animals in the wild can difficult when animals move, hide, or cannot be closely approached. We consider time series of events recorded in conditions where events are occasionally

Tectonic styles of future earthquakes in Italy as input data for seismic hazard

Science.gov (United States)

Pondrelli, S.; Meletti, C.; Rovida, A.; Visini, F.; D'Amico, V.; Pace, B.

2017-12-01

In a recent elaboration of a new seismogenic zonation and hazard model for Italy, we tried to understand how many indications we have on the tectonic style of future earthquake/rupture. Using all available or recomputed seismic moment tensors for relevant seismic events (Mw starting from 4.5) of the last 100 yrs, first arrival focal mechanisms for less recent earthquakes and also geological data on past activated faults, we collected a database gathering a thousands of data all over the Italian peninsula and regions around it. After several summations of seismic moment tensors, over regular grids of different dimensions and different thicknesses of the seismogenic layer, we applied the same procedure to each of the 50 area sources that were designed in the seismogenic zonation. The results for several seismic zones are very stable, e.g. along the southern Apennines we expect future earthquakes to be mostly extensional, although in the outer part of the chain strike-slip events are possible. In the Northern part of the Apennines we also expect different, opposite tectonic styles for different hypocentral depths. In several zones, characterized by a low seismic moment release, defined for the study region using 1000 yrs of catalog, the next possible tectonic style of future earthquakes is less clear. It is worth to note that for some zones the possible greatest earthquake could be not represented in the available observations. We also add to our analysis the computation of the seismic release rate, computed using a distributed completeness, identified for single great events of the historical seismic catalog for Italy. All these information layers, overlapped and compared, may be used to characterize each new seismogenic zone.

IAEA establishes International Seismic Safety Centre

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Full text: The IAEA today officially inaugurated an international centre to coordinate efforts for protecting nuclear installations against the effects of earthquakes. The International Seismic Safety Centre (ISSC), which has been established within the IAEA's Department of Nuclear Safety and Security, will serve as a focal point on seismic safety for nuclear installations worldwide. ISSC will assist countries on the assessment of seismic hazards of nuclear facilities to mitigate the consequences of strong earthquakes. 'With safety as our first priority, it is vital that we pool all expert knowledge available worldwide to assist nuclear operators and regulators to be well prepared for coping with major seismic events,' said Antonio Godoy, Acting Head of the IAEA's Engineering Safety Section and leader of the ISSC. 'The creation of the ISSC represents the culmination of three decades of the IAEA's active and recognized involvement in this matter through the development of an updated set of safety standards and the assistance to Member States for their application.' To further seismic safety at nuclear installations worldwide, the ISSC will: - Promote knowledge sharing among the international community in order to avoid or mitigate the consequences of extreme seismic events on nuclear installations; - Support countries through advisory services and training courses; and - Enhance seismic safety by utilizing experience gained from previous seismic events in member states. The centre is supported by a scientific committee of high-level experts from academic, industrial and nuclear safety authorities that will advise the ISSC on implementation of its programme. Experts have been nominated from seven specialized areas, including geology and tectonics, seismology, seismic hazard, geotechnical engineering, structural engineering, equipment, and seismic risk. Japan and the United States have both contributed initial funds for creation of the centre, which will be based at

Combining mineral physics with seismic observations: What can we deduce about the thermochemical structure of the Earth's deep interior?

Science.gov (United States)

Cobden, L. J.

2017-12-01

Mineral physics provides the essential link between seismic observations of the Earth's interior, and laboratory (or computer-simulated) measurements of rock properties. In this presentation I will outline the procedure for quantitative conversion from thermochemical structure to seismic structure (and vice versa) using the latest datasets from seismology and mineralogy. I will show examples of how this method can allow us to infer major chemical and dynamic properties of the deep mantle. I will also indicate where uncertainties and limitations in the data require us to exercise caution, in order not to "over-interpret" seismic observations. Understanding and modelling these uncertainties serves as a useful guide for mineralogists to ascertain which mineral parameters are most useful in seismic interpretation, and enables seismologists to optimise their data assembly and inversions for quantitative interpretations.

Physics based simulation of seismicity induced in the vicinity of a high-pressure fluid injection

Science.gov (United States)

McCloskey, J.; NicBhloscaidh, M.; Murphy, S.; O'Brien, G. S.; Bean, C. J.

2013-12-01

High-pressure fluid injection into subsurface is known, in some cases, to induce earthquakes in the surrounding volume. The increasing importance of ';fracking' as a potential source of hydrocarbons has made the seismic hazard from this effect an important issue the adjudication of planning applications and it is likely that poor understanding of the process will be used as justification of refusal of planning in Ireland and the UK. Here we attempt to understand some of the physical controls on the size and frequency of induced earthquakes using a physics-based simulation of the process and examine resulting earthquake catalogues The driver for seismicity in our simulations is identical to that used in the paper by Murphy et al. in this session. Fluid injection is simulated using pore fluid movement throughout a permeable layer from a high-pressure point source using a lattice Boltzmann scheme. Diffusivities and frictional parameters can be defined independently at individual nodes/cells allowing us to reproduce 3-D geological structures. Active faults in the model follow a fractal size distribution and exhibit characteristic event size, resulting in a power-law frequency-size distribution. The fluid injection is not hydraulically connected to the fault (i.e. fluid does not come into physical contact with the fault); however stress perturbations from the injection drive the seismicity model. The duration and pressure-time function of the fluid injection can be adjusted to model any given injection scenario and the rate of induced seismicity is controlled by the local structures and ambient stress field as well as by the stress perturbations resulting from the fluid injection. Results from the rate and state fault models of Murphy et al. are incorporated to include the effect of fault strengthening in seismically quite areas. Initial results show similarities with observed induced seismic catalogues. Seismicity is only induced where the active faults have not been

Post-seismic relaxation from geodetic and seismic data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikhail V. Rodkin

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We have examined the aftershock sequence and the post-seismic deformation process of the Parkfield earthquake (2004, M = 6, California, USA source area using GPS data. This event was chosen because of the possibility of joint analysis of data from the rather dense local GPS network (from SOPAC Internet archive and of the availability of the rather detailed aftershock sequence data (http://www.ncedc.org/ncedc/catalog-search.html. The relaxation process of post-seismic deformation prolongs about the same 400 days as the seismic aftershock process does. Thus, the aftershock process and the relaxation process in deformation could be the different sides of the same process. It should be noted that the ratio of the released seismic energy and of the GPS obtained deformation is quite different for the main shock and for the aftershock stage. The ratio of the released seismic energy to the deformation value decreases essentially for the post-shock process. The similar change in the seismic energy/deformation value ratio is valid in a few other strong earthquakes. Thus, this decrease seems typical of aftershock sequences testifying for decrease of ratio of elastic to inelastic deformation in the process of post-shock relaxation when the source area appears to be mostly fractured after the main shock occurs, but the healing process had no yet sufficient time to develop.

Seismic monitoring of the unstable rock slope at Aaknes, Norway

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, M.; Blikra, L. H.

2009-04-01

The unstable rock slope at Aaknes has an estimated volume of about 70 million cubic meters, and parts of the slope are moving at a rate between 2-15 cm/year. Amongst many other direct monitoring systems we have installed a small-scale seismic network (8 three-component geophones over an area of 250 x 150 meters) in order to monitor microseismic events related to the movement of the slope. The network has been operational since November 2005 with only a few short-term outages. Seismic data are transferred in real-time from the site to NORSAR for automatic detection processing. The resulting detection lists and charts and the associated waveform are forwarded immediately to the early warning centre of the Municipality of Stranda. Furthermore, we make them available after a delay of about 10-15 minutes on our public project web page (http://www.norsar.no/pc-47-48-Latest-Data.aspx). Seismic monitoring provides independent and complementary data to the more direct monitoring systems at Aaknes. We observe increased seismic activity in periods of heavy rain fall or snow melt, when laser ranging data and extensometer readings indicate temporary acceleration phases of the slope. The seismic network is too small and the velocity structure is too heterogeneous in order to obtain reliable localizations of the microseismic events. In summer 2009 we plan to install a high-sensitive broadband seismometer (60 s - 100 Hz) in the middle of the unstable slope. This will allow us to better constrain the locations of the microseismic events and to investigate potential low-frequency signals associated with the slope movement.

Improved Seismic Acquisition System and Data Processing for the Italian National Seismic Network

Science.gov (United States)

Badiali, L.; Marcocci, C.; Mele, F.; Piscini, A.

2001-12-01

A new system for acquiring and processing digital signals has been developed in the last few years at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). The system makes extensive use of the internet communication protocol standards such as TCP and UDP which are used as the transport highway inside the Italian network, and possibly in a near future outside, to share or redirect data among processes. The Italian National Seismic Network has been working for about 18 years equipped with vertical short period seismometers and transmitting through analog lines, to the computer center in Rome. We are now concentrating our efforts on speeding the migration towards a fully digital network based on about 150 stations equipped with either broad band or 5 seconds sensors connected to the data center partly through wired digital communication and partly through satellite digital communication. The overall process is layered through intranet and/or internet. Every layer gathers data in a simple format and provides data in a processed format, ready to be distributed towards the next layer. The lowest level acquires seismic data (raw waveforms) coming from the remote stations. It handshakes, checks and sends data in LAN or WAN according to a distribution list where other machines with their programs are waiting for. At the next level there are the picking procedures, or "pickers", on a per instrument basis, looking for phases. A picker spreads phases, again through the LAN or WAN and according to a distribution list, to one or more waiting locating machines tuned to generate a seismic event. The event locating procedure itself, the higher level in this stack, can exchange information with other similar procedures. Such a layered and distributed structure with nearby targets allows other seismic networks to join the processing and data collection of the same ongoing event, creating a virtual network larger than the original one. At present we plan to cooperate with other

Calculation of Fission Observables Through Event-by-Event Simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Randrup, J; Vogt, R

2009-06-04

The increased interest in more exclusive fission observables has demanded more detailed models. We present here a new computational model, FREYA, that aims to met this need by producing large samples of complete fission events from which any observable of interest can then be extracted consistently, including arbitrary correlations. The various model assumptions are described and the potential utility of the model is illustrated by means of several novel correlation observables.

Seismic assessment of a site using the time series method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krutzik, N.J.; Rotaru, I.; Bobei, M.; Mingiuc, C.; Serban, V.; Androne, M.

2001-01-01

1. To increase the safety of a NPP located on a seismic site, the seismic acceleration level to which the NPP should be qualified must be as representative as possible for that site, with a conservative degree of safety but not too exaggerated. 2. The consideration of the seismic events affecting the site as independent events and the use of statistic methods to define some safety levels with very low annual occurrence probabilities (10 -4 ) may lead to some exaggerations of the seismic safety level. 3. The use of some very high values for the seismic accelerations imposed by the seismic safety levels required by the hazard analysis may lead to very expensive technical solutions that can make the plant operation more difficult and increase the maintenance costs. 4. The consideration of seismic events as a time series with dependence among the events produced may lead to a more representative assessment of a NPP site seismic activity and consequently to a prognosis on the seismic level values to which the NPP would be ensured throughout its life-span. That prognosis should consider the actual seismic activity (including small earthquakes in real time) of the focuses that affect the plant site. The method is useful for two purposes: a) research, i.e. homogenizing the history data basis by the generation of earthquakes during periods lacking information and correlation of the information with the existing information. The aim is to perform the hazard analysis using a homogeneous data set in order to determine the seismic design data for a site; b) operation, i.e. the performance of a prognosis on the seismic activity on a certain site and consideration of preventive measures to minimize the possible effects of an earthquake. 5. The paper proposes the application of Autoregressive Time Series to issue a prognosis on the seismic activity of a focus and presents the analysis on Vrancea focus that affects Cernavoda NPP site by this method. 6. The paper also presents the

Toward uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Southeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Shi, X.; Ornthammarath, T.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Thant, M.; Nguyen, P. H.; Nguyen, L. M.; Solidum, R., Jr.; Irsyam, M.; Hidayati, S.; Sieh, K.

2017-12-01

Although most Southeast Asian countries have seismic hazard maps, various methodologies and quality result in appreciable mismatches at national boundaries. We aim to conduct a uniform assessment across the region by through standardized earthquake and fault databases, ground-shaking scenarios, and regional hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters obtained from global and national seismic networks, harmonized by removal of duplicate events and the use of moment magnitude. Our active-fault database includes fault parameters from previous studies and from the databases implemented for national seismic hazard maps. Another crucial input for seismic hazard assessment is proper evaluation of ground-shaking attenuation. Since few ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have used local observations from this region, we evaluated attenuation by comparison of instrumental observations and felt intensities for recent earthquakes with predicted ground shaking from published GMPEs. We then utilize the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions into our seismic hazard assessments. Based on the database and proper GMPEs, we have constructed regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. The assessment shows highest seismic hazard levels near those faults with high slip rates, including the Sagaing Fault in central Myanmar, the Sumatran Fault in Sumatra, the Palu-Koro, Matano and Lawanopo Faults in Sulawesi, and the Philippine Fault across several islands of the Philippines. In addition, our assessment demonstrates the important fact that regions with low earthquake probability may well have a higher aggregate probability of future earthquakes, since they encompass much larger areas than the areas of high probability. The significant irony then is that in areas of low to moderate probability, where building codes are usually to provide less seismic resilience, seismic risk is likely to be greater. Infrastructural damage in East Malaysia during the 2015

Studies of infrasound propagation using the USArray seismic network (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Hedlin, M. A.; Degroot-Hedlin, C. D.; Walker, K. T.

2010-12-01

Although there are currently ~ 100 infrasound arrays worldwide, more than ever before, the station density is still insufficient to provide validation for detailed propagation modeling. Much structure in the atmosphere is short-lived and occurs at spatial scales much smaller than the average distance between infrasound stations. Relatively large infrasound signals can be observed on seismic channels due to coupling at the Earth's surface. Recent research, using data from the 70-km spaced 400-station USArray and other seismic network deployments, has shown the value of dense seismic network data for filling in the gaps between infrasound arrays. The dense sampling of the infrasound wavefield has allowed us to observe complete travel-time branches of infrasound signals and shed more light on the nature of infrasound propagation. We present early results from our studies of impulsive atmospheric sources, such as series of UTTR rocket motor detonations in Utah. The Utah blasts have been well recorded by USArray seismic stations and infrasound arrays in Nevada and Washington State. Recordings of seismic signals from a series of six events in 2007 are used to pinpoint the shot times to < 1 second. Variations in the acoustic branches and signal arrival times at the arrays are used to probe variations in atmospheric structure. Although we currently use coupled signals we anticipate studying dense acoustic network recordings as the USArray is currently being upgraded with infrasound microphones. These new sensors will allow us to make semi-continental scale network recordings of infrasound signals free of concerns about how the signals observed on seismic channels were modified when being coupled to seismic.

Influence of LOD variations on seismic energy release

Science.gov (United States)

Riguzzi, F.; Krumm, F.; Wang, K.; Kiszely, M.; Varga, P.

2009-04-01

Tidal friction causes significant time variations of geodynamical parameters, among them geometrical flattening. The axial despinning of the Earth due to tidal friction through the change of flattening generates incremental meridional and azimuthal stresses. The stress pattern in an incompressible elastic upper mantle and crust is symmetric to the equator and has its inflection points at the critical latitude close to ±45°. Consequently the distribution of seismic energy released by strong, shallow focus earthquakes should have also sharp maxima at this latitude. To investigate the influence of length of day (LOD) variations on earthquake activity an earthquake catalogue of strongest seismic events (M>7.0) was completed for the period 1900-2007. It is shown with the use of this catalogue that for the studied time-interval the catalogue is complete and consists of the seismic events responsible for more than 90% of released seismic energy. Study of the catalogue for earthquakes M>7.0 shows that the seismic energy discharged by the strongest seismic events has significant maxima at ±45°, what renders probably that the seismic activity of our planet is influenced by an external component, i.e. by the tidal friction, which acts through the variation of the hydrostatic figure of the Earth caused by it. Distribution along the latitude of earthquake numbers and energies was investigated also for the case of global linear tectonic structures, such as mid ocean ridges and subduction zones. It can be shown that the number of the shallow focus shocks has a repartition along the latitude similar to the distribution of the linear tectonic structures. This means that the position of foci of seismic events is mainly controlled by the tectonic activity.

Annual Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

2009-12-31

The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. During FY 2009, the Hanford Seismic Network recorded nearly 3000 triggers on the seismometer system, which included over 1700 seismic events in the southeast Washington area and an additional 370 regional and teleseismic events. There were 1648 events determined to be local earthquakes relevant to the Hanford Site. Nearly all of these earthquakes were detected in the vicinity of Wooded Island, located about eight miles north of Richland just west of the Columbia River. Recording of the Wooded Island events began in January with over 250 events per month through June 2009. The frequency of events decreased starting in July 2009 to approximately 10-15 events per month through September 2009. Most of the events were considered minor (coda-length magnitude [Mc] less than 1.0) with 47 events in the 2.0-3.0 range. The estimated depths of the Wooded Island events are shallow (averaging less than 1.0 km deep) with a maximum depth estimated at 2.3 km. This places the Wooded Island events within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The highest-magnitude event (3.0Mc

Earthquakes from peninsular India : data from the Gauribidanur seismic array

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gangrade, B.K.; Prasad, A.G.V.; Sharma, R.D.

1987-01-01

Arrival times of the P and S wave signals recorded at the Gauribidanur seismic array from earthquakes in the neighbouring areas in peninsular India have been analysed to estimate their locations (latitudes and longitudes of the epicenters), magnitudes and origin times. Considering typical inaccuracies in the observed data, uncertainties in the estimated epicentral parameters have been illustrated. Using a crustal model, which has been specifically derived for the region around the array, expected arrival times of these signals at other important seismic stations (Kodaikanal, Hyderabad, Poona, New Delhi and Shillong) have been computed for identifying events at these stations in order to determine accurate arrival times at these stations. Due to a higher signal detection capability of the Gauribidanur array, the number of events given in this catalogue is much greater than that detected by these stations. The M S magnitude estimates of events detected at the Hyderabad station have been used to obtain a magnitude scale for Gauribidanur. Origin times, epicentral locations and magnitudes of these events are listed in this report. 10 refs., 3 figures, 3 tables. (author)

PARAMETERS OF KAMCHATKA SEISMICITY IN 2008

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vadim A. Saltykov

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The paper describes seismicity of Kamchatka for the period of 2008 and presents 2D distribution of background seismicity parameters calculated from data published in the Regional Catalogue of Kamchatka Earthquakes. Parameters under study are total released seismic energy, seismic activity A10, slope of recurrence graph γ, parameters of RTL, ΔS and Z-function methods, and clustering of earthquakes. Estimations of seismicity are obtained for a region bordered by latitude 50.5–56.5N, longitude 156E–167E, with depths to 300 km. Earthquakes of energy classes not less than 8.5 as per the Fedotov’s classification are considered. The total seismic energy released in 2008 is estimated. According to a function of annual seismic energy distribution, an amount of seismic energy released in 2008 was close to the median level (Fig. 1. Over 2/3 of the total amount of seismic energy released in 2008 resulted from three largest earthquakes (МW ≥ 5.9. About 5 percent of the total number of seismic events are comprised of grouped earthquakes, i.e. aftershocks and swarms. A schematic map of the largest earthquakes (МW ≥ 5.9 and grouped seismic events which occurred in 2008 is given in Fig. 2; their parameters are listed in Table 1. Grouped earthquakes are excluded from the catalogue. A map showing epicenters of independent earthquakes is given in Fig. 3. The slope of recurrence graph γ and seismic activity A10 is based on the Gutenberg-Richter law stating the fundamental property of seismic process. The recurrence graph slope is calculated from continuous exponential distribution of earthquakes by energy classes. Using γ is conditioned by observations that in some cases the slope of the recurrence graph decreases prior to a large earthquake. Activity A10 is calculated from the number of earthquakes N and recurrence graph slope γ. Average slopes of recurrence graph γ and seismic activity A10 for the area under study in 2008 are calculated; our

GrowYourIC: an open access Python code to facilitate comparison between kinematic models of inner core evolution and seismic observations

Science.gov (United States)

Lasbleis, M.; Day, E. A.; Waszek, L.

2017-12-01

The complex nature of inner core structure has been well-established from seismic studies, with heterogeneities at various length scales, both radially and laterally. Despite this, no geodynamic model has successfully explained all of the observed seismic features. To facilitate comparisons between seismic observations and geodynamic models of inner core growth we have developed a new, open access Python tool - GrowYourIC - that allows users to compare models of inner core structure. The code allows users to simulate different evolution models of the inner core, with user-defined rates of inner core growth, translation and rotation. Once the user has "grown" an inner core with their preferred parameters they can then explore the effect of "their" inner core's evolution on the relative age and growth rate in different regions of the inner core. The code will convert these parameters into seismic properties using either built-in mineral physics models, or user-supplied ones that calculate these seismic properties with users' own preferred mineralogical models. The 3D model of isotropic inner core properties can then be used to calculate the predicted seismic travel time anomalies for a random, or user-specified, set of seismic ray paths through the inner core. A real dataset of inner core body-wave differential travel times is included for the purpose of comparing user-generated models of inner core growth to actual observed travel time anomalies in the top 100km of the inner core. Here, we explore some of the possibilities of our code. We investigate the effect of the limited illumination of the inner core by seismic waves on the robustness of kinematic model interpretation. We test the impact on seismic differential travel time observations of several kinematic models of inner core growth: fast lateral translation; slow differential growth; and inner core super-rotation. We find that a model of inner core evolution incorporating both differential growth and slow

Methodology of seismotectonic zoning in an intraplate low seismicity domain. Examples of France surrounding areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Philip, H.; Grellet, B.; Combes, P.; Haessler, H.

1991-01-01

Until now, the dominant factor in seismic hazard assessments has been historical seismicity. This approach is justified if the data derived from historical seismicity in a region are representative of its seismic activity and if we consider that in areas where damaging earthquakes have happened, they may happen again. This can be seen when seismotectonic relationships are well established in areas such as well localised plate boundaries (subduction zones, transform faults) and/or with a high rate of deformation. In these cases, the areas where future earthquakes might occur are usually well determined and the recurrences short enough on the time scale of historical observations. However, in areas where recent tectonic deformations are diffused and moderate, the historical period of seismicity data (a few centuries) is not long enough to observe a sample of historical seismicity representative of the present-day tectonic activity of the area. The studies on the most recent damaging earthquakes (El Asnam 1980, Spitak 1988, Cherchell Tipasa 1989) show that it would have been extremely difficult to predict the magnitude and the localisation of these events considering historical seismicity alone. It is the same in Provence (south of France) where the risk of occurrence of a damaging earthquake would have been underestimated before the June 1909 event. In all these cases, seismotectonic studies 'a posteriori' show that the geometry and kinematic of the faults responsible for these earthquakes can be identified and that all of them have presented seismic activity in the last thousand years. So it is necessary to emphasis a global approach of the problem through specific studies such as neotectonics, teledetection, geodesy, present-day stress field, strain field, paleoseismology etc. These studies will enlarge the period of observation compared with the data derived only from historical and present-day seismicity. In France seismicity is moderate and recent tectonic

Scram reliability under seismic conditions at the Experimental Breeder Reactor II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roglans, J.; Wang, C.Y.; Hill, D.J.

1993-01-01

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II has recently been completed. Seismic events are among the external initiating events included in the assessment. As part of the seismic PRA a detailed study has been performed of the ability to shutdown the reactor under seismic conditions. A comprehensive finite element model of the EBR-II control rod drive system has been used to analyze the control rod system response when subjected to input seismic accelerators. The results indicate the control rod drive system has a high seismic capacity. The estimated seismic fragility for the overall reactor shutdown system is dominated by the primary tank failure

Severity Classification of a Seismic Event based on the Magnitude-Distance Ratio Using Only One Seismological Station

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Hernán Ochoa Gutiérrez

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Seismic event characterization is often accomplished using algorithms based only on information received at seismological stations located closest to the particular event, while ignoring historical data received at those stations. These historical data are stored and unseen at this stage. This characterization process can delay the emergency response, costing valuable time in the mitigation of the adverse effects on the affected population. Seismological stations have recorded data during many events that have been characterized by classical methods, and these data can be used as previous "knowledge" to train such stations to recognize patterns. This knowledge can be used to make faster characterizations using only one three-component broadband station by applying bio-inspired algorithms or recently developed stochastic methods, such as kernel methods. We trained a Support Vector Machine (SVM algorithm with seismograph data recorded by INGEOMINAS's National Seismological Network at a three-component station located near Bogota, Colombia. As input model descriptors, we used the following: (1 the integral of the Fourier transform/power spectrum for each component, divided into 7 windows of 2 seconds and beginning at the P onset time, and (2 the ratio between the calculated logarithm of magnitude (Mb and epicentral distance. We used 986 events with magnitudes greater than 3 recorded from late 2003 to 2008. The algorithm classifies events with magnitude-distance ratios (a measure of the severity of possible damage caused by an earthquake greater than a background value. This value can be used to estimate the magnitude based on a known epicentral distance, which is calculated from the difference between P and S onset times. This rapid (< 20 seconds magnitude estimate can be used for rapid response strategies. The results obtained in this work confirm that many hypocentral parameters and a rapid location of a seismic event can be obtained using a few

AP1000{sup R} design robustness against extreme external events - Seismic, flooding, and aircraft crash

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pfister, A.; Goossen, C.; Coogler, K.; Gorgemans, J. [Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, 1000 Westinghouse Drive, Cranberry Township, PA 16066 (United States)

2012-07-01

Both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require existing and new nuclear power plants to conduct plant assessments to demonstrate the unit's ability to withstand external hazards. The events that occurred at the Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear power station demonstrated the importance of designing a nuclear power plant with the ability to protect the plant against extreme external hazards. The innovative design of the AP1000{sup R} nuclear power plant provides unparalleled protection against catastrophic external events which can lead to extensive infrastructure damage and place the plant in an extended abnormal situation. The AP1000 plant is an 1100-MWe pressurized water reactor with passive safety features and extensive plant simplifications that enhance construction, operation, maintenance and safety. The plant's compact safety related footprint and protection provided by its robust nuclear island structures prevent significant damage to systems, structures, and components required to safely shutdown the plant and maintain core and spent fuel pool cooling and containment integrity following extreme external events. The AP1000 nuclear power plant has been extensively analyzed and reviewed to demonstrate that it's nuclear island design and plant layout provide protection against both design basis and extreme beyond design basis external hazards such as extreme seismic events, external flooding that exceeds the maximum probable flood limit, and malicious aircraft impact. The AP1000 nuclear power plant uses fail safe passive features to mitigate design basis accidents. The passive safety systems are designed to function without safety-grade support systems (such as AC power, component cooling water, service water, compressed air or HVAC). The plant has been designed to protect systems, structures, and components critical to placing the reactor in a safe shutdown condition within the steel

Sub-crustal seismic activity beneath Klyuchevskoy Volcano

Science.gov (United States)

Carr, M. J.; Droznina, S.; Levin, V. L.; Senyukov, S.

2013-12-01

events observed at a site closest to the epicenter to delay times of Ps phases in RFs that we associate with the crust-mantle transition. Both observations are essentially differences between travel times of S and P waves originating at the same place, and traversing the same velocity structure. Consequently, the uncertainty of the velocity structure beneath the KVG does not influence the comparison. For all events nominally located at 28-30 km beneath KVG the S-P time at the nearest site (CIR) significantly exceeds 4 seconds. Given that crust-mantle boundary Ps times at nearby sites are ~3 s, these earthquakes take place in the upper mantle. Both recent RFs and wide-angle reflection (Deep Seismic Sounding) studies in the late 1970s identified additional boundaries beneath KVG at depths in excess of 40 km. The nature of these boundaries is unclear, however their sharpness suggests chemical changes or the presence of fluids or melts. Chemistry of Klyuchevskoy lavas suggests sub-crustal origin with no clear magma chamber within the crust. Sub-crustal earthquakes we describe show that processes in the magma conduit at the base of the crust beneath KVG are vigorous enough to promote brittle failure in the surrounding mantle rock. The complex seismic structure of the uppermost mantle beneath KVG may reflect a history of magma injection that is accompanied by seismic energy release.

Local seismic network at the Olkiluoto site. Annual report for 2009

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saari, J.; Malm, M.

2010-06-01

Excavation of the underground characterisation facility (the ONKALO) started in 2004. Before that, in February 2002, Posiva Oy established a local seismic network of six stations on the island of Olkiluoto. After that the number of seismic stations has increased gradually. In 2009 Posiva's seismic network consists of 14 seismic stations and 19 triaxial sensors. The purpose of the microearthquake measurements at Olkiluoto is to improve understanding of the structure, behaviour and long term stability of the bedrock. The investigation area includes two target areas. The larger target area, called seismic semiregional area, covers the Olkiluoto Island and its surroundings. The purpose is to monitor explosions and tectonic earthquakes in regional scale inside that area. The smaller target area is called the seismic ONKALO block, which is a 2 km *2 km *2 km cube surrounding the ONKALO. It is assumed that all the expected excavation induced events occur within this volume. At the moment the seismic ONKALO block includes ten seismic stations. An additional task of monitoring is related to safeguarding of the ONKALO. This report gives the results of microseismic monitoring during 2009. Also the changes in the structure and the operation procedure of the network are described. The upgrades in 2009 are limited to the processing, interpretation and reporting practices. The latest upgrades of the equipment were done in November 2008. The final technical tuning and tests related to the upgrade were done in the beginning of 2009. The network has operated continuously in 2009. Altogether 1256 events have been located in the Olkiluoto area, in reported time period. Most of them (1161) are explosions occurred inside the seismic semi-regional area and especially inside the seismic ONKALO block (1135 events). The magnitudes of the observed events inside the semi-regional area range from ML = -1.5 to ML = 1.6 (ML = magnitude in local Richter's scale). Most of them are explosions. Two

Passive seismic experiment - A summary of current status. [Apollo-initiated lunar surface station data

Science.gov (United States)

Latham, G. V.; Dorman, H. J.; Horvath, P.; Ibrahim, A. K.; Koyama, J.; Nakamura, Y.

1978-01-01

The data set obtained from the four-station Apollo seismic network including signals from approximately 11,800 events, is surveyed. Some refinement of the lunar model will result, but its gross features remain the same. Attention is given to the question of a small, molten lunar core, the answer to which remains dependent on analysis of signals from a far side impact. Seventy three sources of repeating, deep moonquakes have been identified, thirty nine of which have been accurately located. Concentrated at depths from 800 to 1000 km, the periodicities of these events have led to the hypothesis that they are generated by tidal stresses. Lunar seismic data has also indicated that the meteoroid population is ten times lower than originally determined from earth based observations. Lunar seismic activity is much lower and mountainous masses show no sign of sinking, in contrast to earth, as a result of the lunar crust being four times thicker. While much work remains to be done, significant correlation between terrestrial and lunar observations can be seen.

Development and Examination of Real-time Automatic Scram System Using Deep Vertical Array Seismic Observation System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugaya, Katsunori

2014-01-01

In Japan, observed seismic motions in reactor buildings are currently used for seismic scram, but installing a seismometer at a great depth at the site may possibly shorten scram initiation time. JNES proposed a scram system with a seismometer set at a depth of 3,000 m on the premises of the Niigata Institute of Technology based on preliminary results for a scenario earthquake and is now planning quantitative evaluation. (authors)

Structure of the Koyna-Warna Seismic Zone, Maharashtra, India: A possible model for large induced earthquakes elsewhere

Science.gov (United States)

Catchings, Rufus D.; Dixit, M.M.; Goldman, Mark R.; Kumar, S.

2015-01-01

The Koyna-Warna area of India is one of the best worldwide examples of reservoir-induced seismicity, with the distinction of having generated the largest known induced earthquake (M6.3 on 10 December 1967) and persistent moderate-magnitude (>M5) events for nearly 50 years. Yet, the fault structure and tectonic setting that has accommodated the induced seismicity is poorly known, in part because the seismic events occur beneath a thick sequence of basalt layers. On the basis of the alignment of earthquake epicenters over an ~50 year period, lateral variations in focal mechanisms, upper-crustal tomographic velocity images, geophysical data (aeromagnetic, gravity, and magnetotelluric), geomorphic data, and correlation with similar structures elsewhere, we suggest that the Koyna-Warna area lies within a right step between northwest trending, right-lateral faults. The sub-basalt basement may form a local structural depression (pull-apart basin) caused by extension within the step-over zone between the right-lateral faults. Our postulated model accounts for the observed pattern of normal faulting in a region that is dominated by north-south directed compression. The right-lateral faults extend well beyond the immediate Koyna-Warna area, possibly suggesting a more extensive zone of seismic hazards for the central India area. Induced seismic events have been observed many places worldwide, but relatively large-magnitude induced events are less common because critically stressed, preexisting structures are a necessary component. We suggest that releasing bends and fault step-overs like those we postulate for the Koyna-Warna area may serve as an ideal tectonic environment for generating moderate- to large- magnitude induced (reservoir, injection, etc.) earthquakes.

Second Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2008

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Hartshorn, Donald C.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

2008-06-26

The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The Hanford Seismic Assessment Team locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. For the Hanford Seismic Network, seven local earthquakes were recorded during the second quarter of fiscal year 2008. The largest event recorded by the network during the second quarter (February 3, 2008 - magnitude 2.3 Mc) was located northeast of Richland in Franklin County at a depth of 22.5 km. With regard to the depth distribution, two earthquakes occurred at shallow depths (less than 4 km, most likely in the Columbia River basalts), three earthquakes at intermediate depths (between 4 and 9 km, most likely in the pre-basalt sediments), and two earthquakes were located at depths greater than 9 km, within the crystalline basement. Geographically, five earthquakes occurred in swarm areas and two earthquakes were classified as random events.

Do French macroseismic intensity observations agree with expectations from the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013?

Science.gov (United States)

Rey, Julien; Beauval, Céline; Douglas, John

2018-02-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are the basis of modern seismic design codes. To test fully a seismic hazard curve at the return periods of interest for engineering would require many thousands of years' worth of ground-motion recordings. Because strong-motion networks are often only a few decades old (e.g. in mainland France the first accelerometric network dates from the mid-1990s), data from such sensors can be used to test hazard estimates only at very short return periods. In this article, several hundreds of years of macroseismic intensity observations for mainland France are interpolated using a robust kriging-with-a-trend technique to establish the earthquake history of every French mainland municipality. At 24 selected cities representative of the French seismic context, the number of exceedances of intensities IV, V and VI is determined over time windows considered complete. After converting these intensities to peak ground accelerations using the global conversion equation of Caprio et al. (Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs): a global relationship and evaluation of regional dependency, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105:1476-1490, 2015), these exceedances are compared with those predicted by the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013 (ESHM13). In half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances for low intensities (IV and V) is within the range of predictions of ESHM13. In the other half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances is higher than the predictions of ESHM13. For intensity VI, the match is closer, but the comparison is less meaningful due to a scarcity of data. According to this study, the ESHM13 underestimates hazard in roughly half of France, even when taking into account the uncertainty in the conversion from intensity to acceleration. However, these results are valid only for the acceleration range tested in this study (0.01 to 0.09 g).

Do French macroseismic intensity observations agree with expectations from the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013?

Science.gov (United States)

Rey, Julien; Beauval, Céline; Douglas, John

2018-05-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are the basis of modern seismic design codes. To test fully a seismic hazard curve at the return periods of interest for engineering would require many thousands of years' worth of ground-motion recordings. Because strong-motion networks are often only a few decades old (e.g. in mainland France the first accelerometric network dates from the mid-1990s), data from such sensors can be used to test hazard estimates only at very short return periods. In this article, several hundreds of years of macroseismic intensity observations for mainland France are interpolated using a robust kriging-with-a-trend technique to establish the earthquake history of every French mainland municipality. At 24 selected cities representative of the French seismic context, the number of exceedances of intensities IV, V and VI is determined over time windows considered complete. After converting these intensities to peak ground accelerations using the global conversion equation of Caprio et al. (Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs): a global relationship and evaluation of regional dependency, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105:1476-1490, 2015), these exceedances are compared with those predicted by the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013 (ESHM13). In half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances for low intensities (IV and V) is within the range of predictions of ESHM13. In the other half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances is higher than the predictions of ESHM13. For intensity VI, the match is closer, but the comparison is less meaningful due to a scarcity of data. According to this study, the ESHM13 underestimates hazard in roughly half of France, even when taking into account the uncertainty in the conversion from intensity to acceleration. However, these results are valid only for the acceleration range tested in this study (0.01 to 0.09 g).

Evolution of the 2015 Cotopaxi eruption revealed by combined geochemical & seismic observations

Science.gov (United States)

Hidalgo, Silvana; Battaglia, Jean; Arellano, Santiago; Sierra, Daniel; Bernard, Benjamin; Parra, Rene; Kelly, Peter; Dinger, Florian; Barrington, Charlotte; Samaniego, Pablo

2018-01-01

Through integration of multiple data streams to monitor volcanic unrest scientists are able to make more robust eruption forecast and to obtain a more holistic interpretation of volcanic systems. We examined gas emission and gas geochemistry, seismic and petrologic data recorded during the 2015 unrest of Cotopaxi (Ecuador) in order to decipher the origin and temporal evolution of this eruption. Identification of families of similar seismic events and the use of seismic amplitude ratios reveals temporal changes in volcanic processes. SO2 (300 to 24000 t/d), BrO/SO2 (5-10 x10-5), SO2/HCl (5.8 ± 4.8 and 6.6 ± 3.0) and CO2/SO2 (0.6 to 2.1) measured throughout the eruption indicate a shallow magmatic source. Bulk ash and glass chemistry indicate a homogenous andesitic (SiO2 wt%=56.94 ± 0.25) magma having undergone extensive S-exsolution and degassing during ascent. These data lead us to interpret this eruption as a magma intrusion and ascend to shallow levels. The intrusion progressively interacted with the hydrothermal system, boiled off water, and produced hydromagmatic explosions. A small volume of this intrusion continued to fragment and produced episodic ash emissions until it was sufficiently degassed and rheologically stiff. Based on the 470 kt of measured SO2 we estimate that ~ 65.3 x106 m3 of magma were required to supply the emitted gases. This volume exceeds the volume of erupted juvenile material by a factor of 50. This result emphasizes the importance of careful monitoring of Cotopaxi to identify the intrusion of a new batch of magma, which could rejuvenate the non-erupted material.

The Absence of Remotely Triggered Seismicity in Japan from 1997 to 2002

Science.gov (United States)

Wakefield, R. H.; Brodsky, E. E.

2003-12-01

Observations of increased seismicity following the Landers, Hector Mine, Izmit, and the Denali, earthquakes suggests remote seismic triggering occurs in geothermal locations as far as 3150 km. This study attempts to determine if the same effects occur in Japan, a geothermal region of high seismicity. For the period of 1997 to 2002, we searched for significant increases in the seismicity levels following earthquakes with Mw >= 6.5 at distances larger than conventionally associated with aftershocks. Additionally, we examined available waveform data in order to detect uncataloged events hidden by the coda of the mainshock. Five events had associated waveform data: March 24, 2001 Geiyo, Mw = 6.8; March 28, 2000 Volcano Islands, Mw = 7.6; July 30, 2000 Honshu, Mw = 6.5; October 6, 2000 Tottori, Mw = 6.7; and the January 28, 1999 Kuril Islands, Mw = 6.8 earthquake. Located 260 km from the Geiyo epicenter, station TKO recorded one possible triggered event within 65 km during the hour following the mainshock. However, the TKO data contains many anomalous spikes, and we are not confident the record is clear enough to differentiate small local events from noise. An ambiguous, two-day, regional seismicity increase followed the Volcano Islands event. We interpret the swarm associated with the signal as coincidental because no similar swarms occurred at the same location following Tottori or Geiyo, both of which had an order of magnitude larger shaking. Both waveforms and cataloged events indicate no triggering occurred following the Honshu, Tottori and Kuril Islands mainshocks. We do not interpret the one indefinite local event recorded by TKO as evidence for mid range dynamic triggering, implying that the 2.5 cm/s shaking at TKO did not exceed the local triggering threshold. Additionally, the lack of triggering following Honshu, Tottori, and Kuril Islands suggests that the 1, 2.5 and 2.6 cm/s shaking at distances of 182, 238, and 267 km, respectively, creates lower bounds for

Estimation of full moment tensors, including uncertainties, for earthquakes, volcanic events, and nuclear explosions

Science.gov (United States)

Alvizuri, Celso R.

We present a catalog of full seismic moment tensors for 63 events from Uturuncu volcano in Bolivia. The events were recorded during 2011-2012 in the PLUTONS seismic array of 24 broadband stations. Most events had magnitudes between 0.5 and 2.0 and did not generate discernible surface waves; the largest event was Mw 2.8. For each event we computed the misfit between observed and synthetic waveforms, and we used first-motion polarity measurements to reduce the number of possible solutions. Each moment tensor solution was obtained using a grid search over the six-dimensional space of moment tensors. For each event we show the misfit function in eigenvalue space, represented by a lune. We identify three subsets of the catalog: (1) 6 isotropic events, (2) 5 tensional crack events, and (3) a swarm of 14 events southeast of the volcanic center that appear to be double couples. The occurrence of positively isotropic events is consistent with other published results from volcanic and geothermal regions. Several of these previous results, as well as our results, cannot be interpreted within the context of either an oblique opening crack or a crack-plus-double-couple model. Proper characterization of uncertainties for full moment tensors is critical for distinguishing among physical models of source processes. A seismic moment tensor is a 3x3 symmetric matrix that provides a compact representation of a seismic source. We develop an algorithm to estimate moment tensors and their uncertainties from observed seismic data. For a given event, the algorithm performs a grid search over the six-dimensional space of moment tensors by generating synthetic waveforms for each moment tensor and then evaluating a misfit function between the observed and synthetic waveforms. 'The' moment tensor M0 for the event is then the moment tensor with minimum misfit. To describe the uncertainty associated with M0, we first convert the misfit function to a probability function. The uncertainty, or

Adding seismic broadband analysis to characterize Andean backarc seismicity in Argentina

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarado, P.; Giuliano, A.; Beck, S.; Zandt, G.

2007-05-01

Characterization of the highly seismically active Andean backarc is crucial for assessment of earthquake hazards in western Argentina. Moderate-to-large crustal earthquakes have caused several deaths, damage and drastic economic consequences in Argentinean history. We have studied the Andean backarc crust between 30°S and 36°S using seismic broadband data available from a previous ("the CHARGE") IRIS-PASSCAL experiment. We collected more than 12 terabytes of continuous seismic data from 22 broadband instruments deployed across Chile and Argentina during 1.5 years. Using free software we modeled full regional broadband waveforms and obtained seismic moment tensor inversions of crustal earthquakes testing for the best focal depth for each event. We also mapped differences in the Andean backarc crustal structure and found a clear correlation with different types of crustal seismicity (i.e. focal depths, focal mechanisms, magnitudes and frequencies of occurrence) and previously mapped terrane boundaries. We now plan to use the same methodology to study other regions in Argentina using near-real time broadband data available from the national seismic (INPRES) network and global seismic networks operating in the region. We will re-design the national seismic network to optimize short-period and broadband seismic station coverage for different network purposes. This work is an international effort that involves researchers and students from universities and national government agencies with the goal of providing more information about earthquake hazards in western Argentina.

Superresolution with Seismic Arrays using Empirical Matched Field Processing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, D B; Kvaerna, T

2010-03-24

Scattering and refraction of seismic waves can be exploited with empirical matched field processing of array observations to distinguish sources separated by much less than the classical resolution limit. To describe this effect, we use the term 'superresolution', a term widely used in the optics and signal processing literature to denote systems that break the diffraction limit. We illustrate superresolution with Pn signals recorded by the ARCES array in northern Norway, using them to identify the origins with 98.2% accuracy of 549 explosions conducted by closely-spaced mines in northwest Russia. The mines are observed at 340-410 kilometers range and are separated by as little as 3 kilometers. When viewed from ARCES many are separated by just tenths of a degree in azimuth. This classification performance results from an adaptation to transient seismic signals of techniques developed in underwater acoustics for localization of continuous sound sources. Matched field processing is a potential competitor to frequency-wavenumber and waveform correlation methods currently used for event detection, classification and location. It operates by capturing the spatial structure of wavefields incident from a particular source in a series of narrow frequency bands. In the rich seismic scattering environment, closely-spaced sources far from the observing array nonetheless produce distinct wavefield amplitude and phase patterns across the small array aperture. With observations of repeating events, these patterns can be calibrated over a wide band of frequencies (e.g. 2.5-12.5 Hertz) for use in a power estimation technique similar to frequency-wavenumber analysis. The calibrations enable coherent processing at high frequencies at which wavefields normally are considered incoherent under a plane wave model.

Seismic and aseismic fault slip in response to fluid injection observed during field experiments at meter scale

Science.gov (United States)

Cappa, F.; Guglielmi, Y.; De Barros, L.; Wynants-Morel, N.; Duboeuf, L.

2017-12-01

During fluid injection, the observations of an enlarging cloud of seismicity are generally explained by a direct response to the pore pressure diffusion in a permeable fractured rock. However, fluid injection can also induce large aseismic deformations which provide an alternative mechanism for triggering and driving seismicity. Despite the importance of these two mechanisms during fluid injection, there are few studies on the effects of fluid pressure on the partitioning between seismic and aseismic motions under controlled field experiments. Here, we describe in-situ meter-scale experiments measuring synchronously the fluid pressure, the fault motions and the seismicity directly in a fault zone stimulated by controlled fluid injection at 280 m depth in carbonate rocks. The experiments were conducted in a gallery of an underground laboratory in south of France (LSBB, http://lsbb.eu). Thanks to the proximal monitoring at high-frequency, our data show that the fluid overpressure mainly induces a dilatant aseismic slip (several tens of microns up to a millimeter) at the injection. A sparse seismicity (-4 laws, we simulated an experiment and investigated the relative contribution of the fluid pressure diffusion and stress transfer on the seismic and aseismic fault behavior. The model reproduces the hydromechanical data measured at injection, and show that the aseismic slip induced by fluid injection propagates outside the pressurized zone where accumulated shear stress develops, and potentially triggers seismicity. Our models also show that the permeability enhancement and friction evolution are essential to explain the fault slip behavior. Our experimental results are consistent with large-scale observations of fault motions at geothermal sites (Wei et al., 2015; Cornet, 2016), and suggest that controlled field experiments at meter-scale are important for better assessing the role of fluid pressure in natural and human-induced earthquakes.

Real-time monitoring of seismicity and deformation during the Bárdarbunga rifting event and associated caldera subsidence

Science.gov (United States)

Jónsdóttir, Kristín; Ófeigsson, Benedikt; Vogfjörd, Kristín; Roberts, Matthew; Barsotti, Sara; Gudmundsson, Gunnar; Hensch, Martin; Bergsson, Bergur; Kjartansson, vilhjálmur; Erlendsson, Pálmi; Friðriksdóttir, Hildur; Hreinsdóttir, Sigrún; Guðmundsson, Magnús; Sigmundsson, Freysteinn; Árnadóttir, Thóra; Heimisson, Elías; Hjorleifsdóttir, Vala; Soring, Jón; Björnsson, Bogi; Oddsson, Björn

2015-04-01

We present a monitoring overview of a rifting event and associated caldera subsidence in a glaciated environment during the Bárðarbunga volcanic crisis. Following a slight increase in seismicity and a weak deformation signal, noticed a few months before the unrest by the SIL monitoring team, an intense seismic swarm began in the subglacial Bárðarbunga caldera on August 16 2014. During the following two weeks, a dyke intruded into the crust beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap, propagating 48 km from the caldera to the east-north-east and north of the glacier where an effusive eruption started in Holuhraun. The eruption is still ongoing at the time of writing and has become the largest eruption in over 200 years in Iceland. The dyke propagation was episodic with a variable rate and on several occasions low frequency seismic tremor was observed. Four ice cauldrons, manifestations of small subglacial eruptions, were detected. Soon after the swarm began the 7x11 km wide caldera started to subside and is still subsiding (although at slower rates) and has in total subsided over 60 meters. Unrest in subglacial volcanoes always calls for interdisciplinary efforts and teamwork plays a key role for efficient monitoring. Iceland has experienced six subglacial volcanic crises since modern digital monitoring started in the early 90s. With every crisis the monitoring capabilities, data interpretations, communication and information dissemination procedures have improved. The Civil Protection calls for a board of experts and scientists (Civil Protection Science Board, CPSB) to share their knowledge and provide up-to-date information on the current status of the volcano, the relevant hazards and most likely scenarios. The evolution of the rifting was monitored in real-time by the joint interpretation of seismic and cGPS data. The dyke propagation could be tracked and new, updated models of the dyke volume were presented at the CPSB meetings, often daily. In addition, deformation

NSR&D Program Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 Call for Proposals Mitigation of Seismic Risk at Nuclear Facilities using Seismic Isolation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-02-01

Seismic isolation (SI) has the potential to drastically reduce seismic response of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) and therefore the risk associated with large seismic events (large seismic event could be defined as the design basis earthquake (DBE) and/or the beyond design basis earthquake (BDBE) depending on the site location). This would correspond to a potential increase in nuclear safety by minimizing the structural response and thus minimizing the risk of material release during large seismic events that have uncertainty associated with their magnitude and frequency. The national consensus standard America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4, Seismic Analysis of Safety Related Nuclear Structures recently incorporated language and commentary for seismically isolating a large light water reactor or similar large nuclear structure. Some potential benefits of SI are: 1) substantially decoupling the SSC from the earthquake hazard thus decreasing risk of material release during large earthquakes, 2) cost savings for the facility and/or equipment, and 3) applicability to both nuclear (current and next generation) and high hazard non-nuclear facilities. Issue: To date no one has evaluated how the benefit of seismic risk reduction reduces cost to construct a nuclear facility. Objective: Use seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) to evaluate the reduction in seismic risk and estimate potential cost savings of seismic isolation of a generic nuclear facility. This project would leverage ongoing Idaho National Laboratory (INL) activities that are developing advanced (SPRA) methods using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Technical Approach: The proposed study is intended to obtain an estimate on the reduction in seismic risk and construction cost that might be achieved by seismically isolating a nuclear facility. The nuclear facility is a representative pressurized water reactor building nuclear power plant (NPP) structure

GSETT-3: testing the experimental international seismic monitoring system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringdal, Frode

1995-01-01

Global seismic monitoring system has been developed by the Conference on Disarmaments (CDs) ad hoc group of scientific experts to consider international cooperative measures to detect and identify seismic events (the GSE), based in Geneva. In the course of its work, the GSE has conducted two large-scale global technical tests, Global Seismic Events Technical Test-1 (GSETT-1) in 1984 and GSETT-2 in 1991. The GSE has now embarked upon its third and most ambitious technical test, GSETT-3, which will encompass the development, testing and evaluation of a working prototype of the eventual Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) seismic monitoring system

Evaluation of Fourier and Response Spectra at Ichihasama and Koromogawa Seismic Intensity Observation Sites During the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake in 2008

Science.gov (United States)

Nishikawa, Hayato; Miyajima, Masakatsu

In this study, we evaluate an acceleration Fourier and response spectra at Ichihasama and Koromogawa seismic intensity observation sites which observed JMA seismic intensity of 6 upper but seismic waveform records don't exist during the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake in 2008. Firstly, formula to evaluate acceleration Fourier and response spectra are developed using peak ground acceleration, JMA seismic intensity and predominant period of earthquake spectra based on records obtained from crustal earthquakes with Magnitude of 6 to 7. Acceleration Fourier and response spectra are evaluated for another local government site which are not chosen for development of the formula. The evaluated values mostly agree with the observed ones. Finally, acceleration Fourier and response spectra are evaluated for Ichihasama and Koromogawa observation sites. It is clarified that short period below 1 second was predominated in the evaluated spectra.

Ambient seismic noise interferometry in Hawai'i reveals long-range observability of volcanic tremor

Science.gov (United States)

Ballmer, Silke; Wolfe, Cecily; Okubo, Paul G.; Haney, Matt; Thurber, Clifford H.

2013-01-01

The use of seismic noise interferometry to retrieve Green's functions and the analysis of volcanic tremor are both useful in studying volcano dynamics. Whereas seismic noise interferometry allows long-range extraction of interpretable signals from a relatively weak noise wavefield, the characterization of volcanic tremor often requires a dense seismic array close to the source. We here show that standard processing of seismic noise interferometry yields volcanic tremor signals observable over large distances exceeding 50 km. Our study comprises 2.5 yr of data from the U.S. Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory short period seismic network. Examining more than 700 station pairs, we find anomalous and temporally coherent signals that obscure the Green's functions. The time windows and frequency bands of these anomalous signals correspond well with the characteristics of previously studied volcanic tremor sources at Pu'u 'Ō'ō and Halema'uma'u craters. We use the derived noise cross-correlation functions to perform a grid-search for source location, confirming that these signals are surface waves originating from the known tremor sources. A grid-search with only distant stations verifies that useful tremor signals can indeed be recovered far from the source. Our results suggest that the specific data processing in seismic noise interferometry—typically used for Green's function retrieval—can aid in the study of both the wavefield and source location of volcanic tremor over large distances. In view of using the derived Green's functions to image heterogeneity and study temporal velocity changes at volcanic regions, however, our results illustrate how care should be taken when contamination by tremor may be present.

Shear-wave polarization analysis of the seismic swarm following the July 9th 1998 Faial (Azores) earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Dias, N. A.; Matias, L.; Tellez, J.; Senos, L.; Gaspar, J. L.

2003-04-01

The Azores Islands, located at a tectonic triple Junction, geodynamically are a highly active place. The seismicity in this region occurs mainly in the form of two types of seismic swarms with tectonic and/or volcanic origins, lasting from hours to years. In some cases the swarm follows a main stronger shock, while in others the more energetic event occurs sometime after the beginning of the swarm. In order to understand the complex phenomena of this region, a multidisciplinary approach is needed, involving geophysical, geological and geochemical studies such as the one being carried under the MASHA project (POCTI/CTA/39158/2001), On July 9th 1998 an Mw=6.2 earthquake stroked the island of Faial, in the central group of the Azores archipelago, followed by a seismic swarm still active today. We will present some preliminary results of the shear-wave polarization analysis of a selected dataset of events of this swarm. These correspond to the 112 best- constrained events, record during the first 2 weeks by the seismic network deployed on the 3 islands surrounding the area of the main shock. The objective was to analyse the behaviour of the S wave polarization and the eventual relationship with the presence of seismic anisotropy under the seismic stations, and to correlate this with the regional structure and origin of the Azores plateau. Two main tectonic features are observable on the islands, one primarily orientated SE-NW and the other crossing it roughly with the WNW-ESE direction. The polarization direction observed in the majority of the seismic stations is not stable, varying from SE-NW to WSW-ENE, and showing also the presence in same cases of shear-wave splitting, indicating the presence of anisotropy. Part of the polarization seems to be coherent with the direction of the local tectonic features, but its instability suggest a more complex seismic anisotropy than that proposed by the model EDA of Crampin. Furthermore, the dataset revealed some limitations to

Observational studies to mitigate seismic risks in mines: a new Japanese-South African collaborative research project

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Durrheim, RJ

2010-10-01

Full Text Available and High Stress Mining, 6-8 October 2010, Santiago CHILE 1 Observational studies to mitigate seismic risks in mines: a new Japanese - South African collaborative research project R.J. Durrheim SATREPS*, CSIR Centre for Mining Innovation.... 3. To upgrade the South African national seismic network. The project is carried out under the auspices of the SATREPS (Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development) program "Countermeasures towards Global Issues through...

Creep and slip: Seismic precursors to the Nuugaatsiaq landslide (Greenland)

Science.gov (United States)

Poli, Piero

2017-09-01

Precursory signals to material's failure are predicted by numerical models and observed in laboratory experiments or using field data. These precursory signals are a marker of slip acceleration on weak regions, such as crustal faults. Observation of these precursory signals of catastrophic natural events, such as earthquakes and landslides, is necessary for improving our knowledge about the physics of the nucleation process. Furthermore, observing such precursory signals may help to forecast these catastrophic events or reduce their hazard. I report here the observation of seismic precursors to the Nuugaatsiaq landslide in Greenland. Time evolution of the detected precursors implies that an aseismic slip event is taking place for hours before the landslide, with an exponential increase of slip velocity. Furthermore, time evolution of the precursory signals' amplitude sheds light on the evolution of the fault physics during the nucleation process.

Selecting the seismic HRA approach for Savannah River Plant PRA revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papouchado, K.; Salaymeh, J.

1993-10-01

The Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) has prepared a level I probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), Rev. 0 of reactor operations for externally-initiated events including seismic events. The SRS PRA, Rev. 0 Seismic HRA received a critical review that expressed skepticism with the approach used for human reliability analysis because it had not been previously used and accepted in other published PRAs. This report provides a review of published probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), the associated methodology guidance documents, and the psychological literature to identify parameters important to seismic human reliability analysis (HRA). It also describes a recommended approach for use in the Savannah River Site (SRS) PRA. The SRS seismic event PRA performs HRA to account for the contribution of human errors in the accident sequences. The HRA of human actions during and after a seismic event is an area subject to many uncertainties and involves significant analyst judgment. The approach recommended by this report is based on seismic HRA methods and associated issues and concerns identified from the review of these referenced documents that represent the current state-of-the- art knowledge and acceptance in the seismic HRA field

Seismic efficiency of meteor airbursts

Science.gov (United States)

Svetsov, V. V.; Artemieva, N. A.; Shuvalov, V. V.

2017-08-01

We present the results of numerical simulation for impacts of relatively small asteroids and ice bodies of 30-100 m in size, decelerated in the atmosphere and exploding before they reach the surface, but still producing seismic effects due to the impact wave reaching the surface. The calculated magnitudes fall within the range of 4 to 6, and average seismic efficiency of these events is 2.5 × 10-5. The results obtained allow the seismic hazard from impacts of cosmic bodies to be estimated.

Long seismic activity in the Porto dos Gaúchos Seismic Zone(PGSZ) - Amazon Craton Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Barros, L. V.; Bowen, B. M. D.; Schmidt, K.

2017-12-01

The largest earthquake ever observed in the stable continental interior of the South American plate occurred in Serra do Tombador (ST), Mato Grosso state - Brazil, on January 31, 1955 with magnitude 6.2 m b . Since then no other earthquake has been located near the 1955 epicenter. However, in Porto dos Gaúchos (PG), 100 km northeast of ST, a recurrent seismicity has been observed since 1959. Both ST and PG are located in the Phanerozoic Parecis basin whose sediments overlies the crystalline basement of Amazon craton. Two magnitude 5 earthquakes occurred in PG, in 1998 and 2005 with intensities up to VI and V, respectively. These two main shocks were followed by aftershock sequences, studied by local seismic networks, last up today, almost 30 years later, period in which it was detected more than seven thousand of seismic events. Both sequences occurred in the same WSW-ENE oriented fault zone with right-lateral strike-slip mechanisms. The epicentral zone is near the northern border of Parecis basin, where there are buried grabens, generally trending WNW-ESE, such as the deep Mesoproterozoic Caiabis graben which lies partly beneath the Parecis basin. The seismogenic fault is located in a basement high, which is probably related with the same seismogenic feature responsible for the earthquakes in PGSZ. The 1955 earthquake, despite the uncertainty in its epicenter, does not seem to be directly related to any buried graben either. The seismicity in the PGSZ, therefore, is not directly related to rifted crust.Not considering the possibility of miss location in the ST earthquake, its isolated occurrence - from the perspective of new studies on intraplate seismicity - lead us to think that the PGSZ was activated by stresses released by the earthquake of 1955 and that the seismogenic fault of ST would have closed a cycle of activity. This would explain its seismic quiescence. However, other studies are necessary to prove this hypothesis, such as the measurement of the

Estimation of core-damage frequency to evolutionary ALWR [advanced light water reactor] due to seismic initiating events: Task 4.3.3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brooks, R.D.; Harrison, D.G.; Summitt, R.L.

1990-04-01

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is presently developing a requirements document for the design of advanced light water reactors (ALWRs). One of the basic goals of the EPRI ALWR Requirements Document is that the core-damage frequency for an ALWR shall be less than 1.0E-5. To aid in this effort, the Department of Energy's Advanced Reactor Severe Accident Program (ARSAP) initiated a functional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to determine how effectively the evolutionary plant requirements contained in the existing EPRI Requirements Document assure that this safety goal will be met. This report develops an approximation of the core-damage frequency due to seismic events for both evolutionary plant designs (pressurized-water reactor (PWR) and boiling-water reactor(BWR)) as modeled in the corresponding functional PRAs. Component fragility values were taken directly form information which has been submitted for inclusion in Appendix A to Volume 1 of the EPRI Requirements Document. The results show a seismic core-damage frequency of 5.2E-6 for PWRS and 5.0E-6 for BWRs. Combined with the internal initiators from the functional PRAs, the overall core-damage frequencies are 6.0E-6 for the pwr and BWR, both of which satisfy the 1.0E-5 EPRI goal. In addition, site-specific considerations, such as more rigid components and less conservative fragility data and seismic hazard curves, may further reduce these frequencies. The effect of seismic events on structures are not addressed in this generic evaluation and should be addressed separately on a design-specific basis. 7 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

Improving the Detectability of the Catalan Seismic Network for Local Seismic Activity Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Jara, Jose Antonio; Frontera, Tànit; Batlló, Josep; Goula, Xavier

2016-04-01

The seismic survey of the territory of Catalonia is mainly performed by the regional seismic network operated by the Cartographic and Geologic Institute of Catalonia (ICGC). After successive deployments and upgrades, the current network consists of 16 permanent stations equipped with 3 component broadband seismometers (STS2, STS2.5, CMG3ESP and CMG3T), 24 bits digitizers (Nanometrics Trident) and VSAT telemetry. Data are continuously sent in real-time via Hispasat 1D satellite to the ICGC datacenter in Barcelona. Additionally, data from other 10 stations of neighboring areas (Spain, France and Andorra) are continuously received since 2011 via Internet or VSAT, contributing both to detect and to locate events affecting the region. More than 300 local events with Ml ≥ 0.7 have been yearly detected and located in the region. Nevertheless, small magnitude earthquakes, especially those located in the south and south-west of Catalonia may still go undetected by the automatic detection system (DAS), based on Earthworm (USGS). Thus, in order to improve the detection and characterization of these missed events, one or two new stations should be installed. Before making the decision about where to install these new stations, the performance of each existing station is evaluated taking into account the fraction of detected events using the station records, compared to the total number of events in the catalogue, occurred during the station operation time from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2014. These evaluations allow us to build an Event Detection Probability Map (EDPM), a required tool to simulate EDPMs resulting from different network topology scenarios depending on where these new stations are sited, and becoming essential for the decision-making process to increase and optimize the event detection probability of the seismic network.

First Quarter Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rohay, Alan C.; Sweeney, Mark D.; Clayton, Ray E.; Devary, Joseph L.

2011-03-31

The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. The Hanford Seismic Network recorded 16 local earthquakes during the first quarter of FY 2011. Six earthquakes were located at shallow depths (less than 4 km), seven earthquakes at intermediate depths (between 4 and 9 km), most likely in the pre-basalt sediments, and three earthquakes were located at depths greater than 9 km, within the basement. Geographically, thirteen earthquakes were located in known swarm areas and three earthquakes were classified as random events. The highest magnitude event (1.8 Mc) was recorded on October 19, 2010 at depth 17.5 km with epicenter located near the Yakima River between the Rattlesnake Mountain and Horse Heaven Hills swarm areas.

Hanford Seismic Annual Report and Fourth Quarter Report for Fiscal Year 1999

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

AC Rohay; DC Hartshorn; SP Reidel

1999-12-07

Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. Hanford Seismic Monitoring also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network. (EWRN) consist of 40 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. A major reconfiguration of the HSN was initiated at the end of this quarter and the results will be reported in the first quarter report for next fiscal year (FY2000). For the HSN, there were 390 triggers during the fourth quarter of fiscal year(FY) 1999 on the primary recording system. With the implementation of dual backup systems during the second quarter of the fiscal year and an overall increase observed in sensitivity, a total of 1632 triggers were examined, identified, and processed during this fiscal year. During the fourth quarter, 24 seismic events were located by the HSN within the reporting region of 46 degrees to 47 degrees north latitude and 119 degrees to 120 degrees west longitude 9 were earthquakes in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 2 were earthquakes in the pre-basalt sediments, 10 were earthquakes in the crystalline basement; and 2 were quarry blasts. One earthquake appears to be related to a major geologic structure, 14 earthquakes occurred in known swarm areas, and 7 earthquakes were random occurrences.

Seismic Fracture Characterization Methodologies for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Queen, John H. [Hi-Geophysical, Inc., Ponca, OK (United States)

2016-05-09

effective seismic tools for getting information on the internal structure of faults and fractures in support of fluid flow pathway management and EGS treatment. Scattered events similar to those expected from faults and fractures are seen in the VSP reported here. Unfortunately, the source offset and well depth coverage do not allow for detailed analysis of these events. This limited coverage also precluded the use of advanced migration and imaging algorithms. More extensive acquisition is needed to support fault and fracture characterization in the geothermal reservoir at Brady's Hot Springs. The VSP was effective in generating interval velocity estimates over the depths covered by the array. Upgoing reflection events are also visible in the VSP results at locations corresponding to reflection events in the surface seismic. Overall, the high temperature rated fiber optic sensors used in the VSP produced useful results. Modeling has been found useful in the interpretation of both surface reflection seismic and VSP data. It has helped identify possible near surface scattering in the surface seismic data. It has highlighted potential scattering events from deeper faults in the VSP data. Inclusion of more detailed fault and fracture specific stiffness parameters are needed to fully interpret fault and fracture scattered events for flow properties (Pyrak-Nolte and Morris, 2000, Zhu and Snieder, 2002). Shear wave methods were applied in both the surface seismic reflection and VSP work. They were not found to be effective in the Brady's Hot Springs area. This was due to the extreme attenuation of shear waves in the near surface at Brady's. This does not imply that they will be ineffective in general. In geothermal areas where good shear waves can be recorded, modeling suggests they should be very useful for characterizing faults and fractures.

Seismic component fragility data base for IPEEE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandyopadhyay, K.; Hofmayer, C.

1990-01-01

Seismic probabilistic risk assessment or a seismic margin study will require a reliable data base of seismic fragility of various equipment classes. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has selected a group of equipment and generically evaluated the seismic fragility of each equipment class by use of existing test data. This paper briefly discusses the evaluation methodology and the fragility results. The fragility analysis results when used in the Individual Plant Examination for External Events (IPEEE) Program for nuclear power plants are expected to provide insights into seismic vulnerabilities of equipment for earthquakes beyond the design basis. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

Gaps, tears and seismic anisotropy around the subducting slabs of the Antilles

Science.gov (United States)

Schlaphorst, David; Kendall, J.-Michael; Baptie, Brian; Latchman, Joan L.; Tait, Steve

2017-02-01

Seismic anisotropy in and beneath the subducting slabs of the Antilles is investigated using observations of shear-wave splitting. We use a combination of teleseismic and local events recorded at three-component broadband seismic stations on every major island in the area to map anisotropy in the crust, the mantle wedge and the slab/sub-slab mantle. To date this is the most comprehensive study of anisotropy in this region, involving 52 stations from 8 seismic networks. Local event delay times (0.21 ± 0.12 s) do not increase with depth, indicating a crustal origin in anisotropy and an isotropic mantle wedge. Teleseismic delay times are much larger (1.34 ± 0.47 s), with fast shear-wave polarisations that are predominantly parallel to trend of the arc. These observations can be interpreted three ways: (1) the presence of pre-existing anisotropy in the subducting slab; (2) anisotropy due to sub-slab mantle flow around the eastern margin of the nearly stationary Caribbean plate; (3) some combination of both mechanisms. However, there are two notable variations in the trench-parallel pattern of anisotropy - trench-perpendicular alignment is observed in narrow regions east of Puerto Rico and south of Martinique. These observations support previously proposed ideas of eastward sublithospheric mantle flow through gaps in the slab. Furthermore, the pattern of anisotropy south of Martinique, near Saint Lucia is consistent with a previously proposed location for the boundary between the North and South American plates.

Swedish National Seismic Network (SNSN). A short report on recorded earthquakes during the fourth quarter of the year 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boedvarsson, Reynir (Uppsala Univ. (Sweden), Dept. of Earth Sciences)

2011-01-15

According to an agreement with Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) and Uppsala Univ., the Dept. of Earth Sciences has continued to carry out observations of seismic events at seismic stations within the Swedish National Seismic Network (SNSN). This short report gives brief information about the recorded seismicity during October through December 2010. The Swedish National Seismic Network consists of 62 stations. During October through December, 2,241 events were located whereof 158 are estimated as real earthquakes, 1,457 are estimated as explosions, 444 are induced earthquakes in the vicinity of the mines in Kiruna and Malmberget and 182 events are still considered as uncertain but these are most likely explosions and are mainly located outside the network. One earthquake had a magnitude above M{sub L} = 2.0 during the period. In November one earthquake was located 13 km SW of Haernoesand with a magnitude of M{sub L} = 2.1. The largest earthquake in October had a magnitude of M{sub L} = 1.7 and was located 12 km NE of Eksjoe and in December an earthquake with a magnitude of M{sub L} = 1.8 was located 19 km north of Motala

The seismicity related to the southern part of the Kenya Rift

Science.gov (United States)

Hollnack, D.; Stangl, R.

1998-04-01

In 1990 the Geology Department of the University of Nairobi started to build up a seismological network for Kenya, which has been operating since 1993. In this paper the actual state of this seismological network is described. Additionally, the first results on the seismic activity in the southern part of Kenya and adjacent areas between October 1993 and August 1996 are presented and are compared with historical data. Out of more than 2000 recorded local earthquakes 435 could be localised within the study area with local magnitudes of up to 5. The distribution of the events shows three areas of prominent seismicity: the Rift Valley between Nakuru and northern Tanzania; the area northeast of Kilimanjaro; and the Nyanza Rift in western Kenya. In a first attempt to assess the seismic hazard for the study area, a seismic energy map for the period of observation is given.

Time-lapse imaging of fault properties at seismogenic depth using repeating earthquakes, active sources and seismic ambient noise

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Xin

2009-12-01

The time-varying stress field of fault systems at seismogenic depths plays the mort important role in controlling the sequencing and nucleation of seismic events. Using seismic observations from repeating earthquakes, controlled active sources and seismic ambient noise, five studies at four different fault systems across North America, Central Japan, North and mid-West China are presented to describe our efforts to measure such time dependent structural properties. Repeating and similar earthquakes are hunted and analyzed to study the post-seismic fault relaxation at the aftershock zone of the 1984 M 6.8 western Nagano and the 1976 M 7.8 Tangshan earthquakes. The lack of observed repeating earthquakes at western Nagano is attributed to the absence of a well developed weak fault zone, suggesting that the fault damage zone has been almost completely healed. In contrast, the high percentage of similar and repeating events found at Tangshan suggest the existence of mature fault zones characterized by stable creep under steady tectonic loading. At the Parkfield region of the San Andreas Fault, repeating earthquake clusters and chemical explosions are used to construct a scatterer migration image based on the observation of systematic temporal variations in the seismic waveforms across the occurrence time of the 2004 M 6 Parkfield earthquake. Coseismic fluid charge or discharge in fractures caused by the Parkfield earthquake is used to explain the observed seismic scattering properties change at depth. In the same region, a controlled source cross-well experiment conducted at SAFOD pilot and main holes documents two large excursions in the travel time required for a shear wave to travel through the rock along a fixed pathway shortly before two rupture events, suggesting that they may be related to pre-rupture stress induced changes in crack properties. At central China, a tomographic inversion based on the theory of seismic ambient noise and coda wave interferometry

Multicomponent ensemble models to forecast induced seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Király-Proag, E.; Gischig, V.; Zechar, J. D.; Wiemer, S.

2018-01-01

In recent years, human-induced seismicity has become a more and more relevant topic due to its economic and social implications. Several models and approaches have been developed to explain underlying physical processes or forecast induced seismicity. They range from simple statistical models to coupled numerical models incorporating complex physics. We advocate the need for forecast testing as currently the best method for ascertaining if models are capable to reasonably accounting for key physical governing processes—or not. Moreover, operational forecast models are of great interest to help on-site decision-making in projects entailing induced earthquakes. We previously introduced a standardized framework following the guidelines of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability, the Induced Seismicity Test Bench, to test, validate, and rank induced seismicity models. In this study, we describe how to construct multicomponent ensemble models based on Bayesian weightings that deliver more accurate forecasts than individual models in the case of Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 enhanced geothermal stimulation projects. For this, we examine five calibrated variants of two significantly different model groups: (1) Shapiro and Smoothed Seismicity based on the seismogenic index, simple modified Omori-law-type seismicity decay, and temporally weighted smoothed seismicity; (2) Hydraulics and Seismicity based on numerically modelled pore pressure evolution that triggers seismicity using the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. We also demonstrate how the individual and ensemble models would perform as part of an operational Adaptive Traffic Light System. Investigating seismicity forecasts based on a range of potential injection scenarios, we use forecast periods of different durations to compute the occurrence probabilities of seismic events M ≥ 3. We show that in the case of the Basel 2006 geothermal stimulation the models forecast hazardous levels

The Unconstrained Event Bulletin (UEB) for the IMS Seismic Network Spaning the Period May 15-28, 2010: a New Resource for Algorithm Development and Testing

Science.gov (United States)

Brogan, R.; Young, C. J.; Ballard, S.

2017-12-01

A major problem with developing new data processing algorithms for seismic event monitoring is the lack of standard, high-quality "ground-truth" data sets to test against. The unfortunate effect of this is that new algorithms are often developed and tested with new data sets, making comparison of algorithms difficult and subjective. In an effort towards resolving this problem, we have developed the Unconstrained Event Bulletin (UEB), a ground-truth data set from the International Monitoring System (IMS) primary and auxiliary seismic networks for a two-week period in May 2010. All UEB analysis was performed by the same expert, who has more than 30 years of experience analyzing seismic data for nuclear explosion monitoring. We used the most complete International Data Centre (IDC) analyst-review event bulletin (the Late Event Bulletin or LEB) as a starting point for this analysis. To make the UEB more complete, we relaxed the minimum event definite criteria to the level of a pair of P-type and an S-type phases at a single station and using azimuth/slowness as defining. To add even more events that our analyst recognized and didn't want to omit, in rare cases, events were constructed using only 1 P-phase. Perhaps most importantly, on average our analyst spent more than 60 hours per day of data, far more than was possible in the production of the LEB. The result of all this was that while the LEB had 2,101 LEB events for the 2-week time period, we ended up with 11,435 events in the UEB, an increase of over 400%. New events are located all over the world and include both earthquakes and manmade events such as mining explosions. Our intent is to make our UEB data set openly available for all researchers to use for testing detection, correlation, and location algorithms, thus making it much easier to objectively compare different research efforts. Acknowledgement: Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and

Numerical modeling and the physical basis of seismic discriminants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Denny, M.D.

1993-01-01

Accurate seismic event discrimination is critical to detection of nuclear explosions. Numerical modeling applied to seismic event discrimination can lead to increased reliability of proliferation detection. It is particularly applicable to error budgeting and to understanding explosion and earthquake phenomenologies. There also is a need for minimum requirements to validate the models used in numerical modeling

The forecast of mining-induced seismicity and the consequent risk of damage to the excavation in the area of seismic event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Drzewiecki

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The Central Mining Institute has developed a method for forecasting the amount of seismic energy created by tremors induced by mining operations. The results of geophysical measurements of S wave velocity anomalies in a rock mass or the results of analytic calculations of the values of pressure on the horizon of the elastic layers are used in the process of calculating the energy. The calculation program which has been developed and adopted has been modified over recent years and it now enables not only the prediction of the energy of dynamic phenomena induced by mining but also the forecasting of the devastating range of seismic shock. The results obtained from this calculation, usually presented in a more readable graphic form, are useful for the macroscopic evaluation of locations that are potential sources of seismic energy. Forecasting of the maximum energy of seismic shock without prior knowledge of the location of the shock's source, does not allow shock attenuation that results from, for example, a distance of tremor source from the excavation which will be affected by seismic energy, to be taken into consideration. The phenomena of energy dissipation, which is taken into account in the forecasts, create a new quality of assessment of threat to the excavation. The paper presents the principle of a method of forecasting the seismic energy of a shock and the risk of damage to the excavation as a result of the impact of its energy wave. The solution assumes that the source of the energy shock is a resilient layer in which the sum of the gravitational stresses, resulting from natural disturbances and those induced by the conducted or planned mining exploitation, is estimated. The proposed solution assumes a spherical model for the tremor source, for which seismic energy is forecasted as a function of the longwall advance and the elementary value of seismic energy destroying the excavation. Subsequently, the following are calculated for the

Bayesian Inference for Signal-Based Seismic Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, D.

2015-12-01

Traditional seismic monitoring systems rely on discrete detections produced by station processing software, discarding significant information present in the original recorded signal. SIG-VISA (Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis) is a system for global seismic monitoring through Bayesian inference on seismic signals. By modeling signals directly, our forward model is able to incorporate a rich representation of the physics underlying the signal generation process, including source mechanisms, wave propagation, and station response. This allows inference in the model to recover the qualitative behavior of recent geophysical methods including waveform matching and double-differencing, all as part of a unified Bayesian monitoring system that simultaneously detects and locates events from a global network of stations. We demonstrate recent progress in scaling up SIG-VISA to efficiently process the data stream of global signals recorded by the International Monitoring System (IMS), including comparisons against existing processing methods that show increased sensitivity from our signal-based model and in particular the ability to locate events (including aftershock sequences that can tax analyst processing) precisely from waveform correlation effects. We also provide a Bayesian analysis of an alleged low-magnitude event near the DPRK test site in May 2010 [1] [2], investigating whether such an event could plausibly be detected through automated processing in a signal-based monitoring system. [1] Zhang, Miao and Wen, Lianxing. "Seismological Evidence for a Low-Yield Nuclear Test on 12 May 2010 in North Korea". Seismological Research Letters, January/February 2015. [2] Richards, Paul. "A Seismic Event in North Korea on 12 May 2010". CTBTO SnT 2015 oral presentation, video at https://video-archive.ctbto.org/index.php/kmc/preview/partner_id/103/uiconf_id/4421629/entry_id/0_ymmtpps0/delivery/http

Features, Events, and Processes: Disruptive Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

J. King

2004-03-31

The primary purpose of this analysis is to evaluate seismic- and igneous-related features, events, and processes (FEPs). These FEPs represent areas of natural system processes that have the potential to produce disruptive events (DE) that could impact repository performance and are related to the geologic processes of tectonism, structural deformation, seismicity, and igneous activity. Collectively, they are referred to as the DE FEPs. This evaluation determines which of the DE FEPs are excluded from modeling used to support the total system performance assessment for license application (TSPA-LA). The evaluation is based on the data and results presented in supporting analysis reports, model reports, technical information, or corroborative documents that are cited in the individual FEP discussions in Section 6.2 of this analysis report.