Household transmission of influenza A(H1N1pdm09 in the pandemic and post-pandemic seasons.

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Itziar Casado

Full Text Available The transmission of influenza viruses occurs person to person and is facilitated by contacts within enclosed environments such as households. The aim of this study was to evaluate secondary attack rates and factors associated with household transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1pdm09 in the pandemic and post-pandemic seasons.During the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 influenza seasons, 76 sentinel physicians in Navarra, Spain, took nasopharyngeal and pharyngeal swabs from patients diagnosed with influenza-like illness. A trained nurse telephoned households of those patients who were laboratory-confirmed for influenza A(H1N1pdm09 to ask about the symptoms, risk factors and vaccination status of each household member.In the 405 households with a patient laboratory-confirmed for influenza A(H1N1pdm09, 977 susceptible contacts were identified; 16% of them (95% CI 14-19% presented influenza-like illness and were considered as secondary cases. The secondary attack rate was 14% in 2009-2010 and 19% in the 2010-2011 season (p=0.049, an increase that mainly affected persons with major chronic conditions. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the risk of being a secondary case was higher in the 2010-2011 season than in the 2009-2010 season (adjusted odds ratio: 1.72; 95% CI 1.17-2.54, and in children under 5 years, with a decreasing risk in older contacts. Influenza vaccination was associated with lesser incidence of influenza-like illness near to statistical significance (adjusted odds ratio: 0.29; 95% CI 0.08-1.03.The secondary attack rate in households was higher in the second season than in the first pandemic season. Children had a greater risk of infection. Preventive measures should be maintained in the second pandemic season, especially in high-risk persons.

Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

Science.gov (United States)

Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

2010-12-01

Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

Schools as Potential Risk Sites for Vector-Borne Disease Transmission: Mosquito Vectors in Rural Schools in Two Municipalities in Colombia.

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Olano, Víctor Alberto; Matiz, María Inés; Lenhart, Audrey; Cabezas, Laura; Vargas, Sandra Lucía; Jaramillo, Juan Felipe; Sarmiento, Diana; Alexander, Neal; Stenström, Thor Axel; Overgaard, Hans J

2015-09-01

Dengue and other vector-borne diseases are of great public health importance in Colombia. Vector surveillance and control activities are often focused at the household level. Little is known about the importance of nonhousehold sites, including schools, in maintaining vector-borne disease transmission. The objectives of this paper were to determine the mosquito species composition in rural schools in 2 municipalities in Colombia and to assess the potential risk of vector-borne disease transmission in school settings. Entomological surveys were carried out in rural schools during the dry and rainy seasons of 2011. A total of 12 mosquito species were found: Aedes aegypti, Anopheles pseudopunctipennis, Culex coronator, Cx. quinquefasciatus, and Limatus durhamii in both immature and adult forms; Ae. fluviatilis, Cx. nigripalpus, Cx. corniger, and Psorophora ferox in immature forms only; and Ae. angustivittatus, Haemagogus equinus, and Trichoprosopon lampropus in adult forms only. The most common mosquito species was Cx. quinquefasciatus. Classrooms contained the greatest abundance of adult female Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus. The most common Ae. aegypti breeding sites were containers classified as "others" (e.g., cans), followed by containers used for water storage. A high level of Ae. aegypti infestation was found during the wet season. Our results suggest that rural schools are potentially important foci for the transmission of dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases. We propose that public health programs should be implemented in rural schools to prevent vector-borne diseases.

Understanding myxozoan infection dynamics in the sea: Seasonality and transmission of Ceratomyxa puntazzi

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Alama-Bermejo, Gema; Šíma, Radek; Raga, J. A.; Holzer, Astrid S.

2013-01-01

Roč. 43, č. 9 (2013), s. 771-780 ISSN 0020-7519 R&D Projects: GA ČR GBP505/12/G112 Grant - others:Valencian Autonomous Government(ES) BFPI/2007/289; Valencian Autonomous Government(ES) GVPRE/2008/185; Valencian Autonomous Government(ES) PROTMETEO/2011/040; Valencian Autonomous Government(ES) ISIC/2012/003 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : Ceratomyxa puntazzi * Myxozoa * Diplodus puntazzo * Sentinel fish * Seawater * qPCR * Seasonality * Transmission Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 3.404, year: 2013

Interrupting seasonal transmission of Schistosoma haematobium and control of soil-transmitted helminthiasis in northern and central Côte d'Ivoire: a SCORE study protocol.

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Tian-Bi, Yves-Nathan T; Ouattara, Mamadou; Knopp, Stefanie; Coulibaly, Jean T; Hürlimann, Eveline; Webster, Bonnie; Allan, Fiona; Rollinson, David; Meïté, Aboulaye; Diakité, Nana R; Konan, Cyrille K; N'Goran, Eliézer K; Utzinger, Jürg

2018-01-29

To achieve a world free of schistosomiasis, the objective is to scale up control and elimination efforts in all endemic countries. Where interruption of transmission is considered feasible, countries are encouraged to implement a comprehensive intervention package, including preventive chemotherapy, information, education and communication (IEC), water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), and snail control. In northern and central Côte d'Ivoire, transmission of Schistosoma haematobium is seasonal and elimination might be achieved. In a cluster-randomised trial, we will assess different treatment schemes to interrupt S. haematobium transmission and control soil-transmitted helminthiasis over a 3-year period. We will compare the impact of (i) arm A: annual mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel and albendazole before the peak schistosomiasis transmission season; (ii) arm B: annual MDA after the peak schistosomiasis transmission season; (iii) arm C: two yearly treatments before and after peak schistosomiasis transmission; and (iv) arm D: annual MDA before peak schistosomiasis transmission, coupled with chemical snail control using niclosamide. The prevalence and intensity of S. haematobium and soil-transmitted helminth infections will be assessed using urine filtration and Kato-Katz thick smears, respectively, in six administrative regions in northern and central parts of Côte d'Ivoire. Once a year, urine and stool samples will be collected and examined from 50 children aged 5-8 years, 100 children aged 9-12 years and 50 adults aged 20-55 years in each of 60 selected villages. Changes in S. haematobium and soil-transmitted helminth prevalence and intensity will be assessed between years and stratified by intervention arm. In the 15 villages randomly assigned to intervention arm D, intermediate host snails will be collected three times per year, before niclosamide is applied to the selected freshwater bodies. The snail abundance and infection rates over time

Seasonality of absolute humidity explains seasonality of influenza-like illness in Vietnam.

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Thai, Pham Quang; Choisy, Marc; Duong, Tran Nhu; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Yen, Nguyen Thu; Hien, Nguyen Tran; Weiss, Daniel J; Boni, Maciej F; Horby, Peter

2015-12-01

Experimental and ecological studies have shown the role of climatic factors in driving the epidemiology of influenza. In particular, low absolute humidity (AH) has been shown to increase influenza virus transmissibility and has been identified to explain the onset of epidemics in temperate regions. Here, we aim to study the potential climatic drivers of influenza-like illness (ILI) epidemiology in Vietnam, a tropical country characterized by a high diversity of climates. We specifically focus on quantifying and explaining the seasonality of ILI. We used 18 years (1993-2010) of monthly ILI notifications aggregated by province (52) and monthly climatic variables (minimum, mean, maximum temperatures, absolute and relative humidities, rainfall and hours of sunshine) from 67 weather stations across Vietnam. Seasonalities were quantified from global wavelet spectra, using the value of the power at the period of 1 year as a measure of the intensity of seasonality. The 7 climatic time series were characterized by 534 summary statistics which were entered into a regression tree to identify factors associated with the seasonality of AH. Results were extrapolated to the global scale using simulated climatic times series from the NCEP/NCAR project. The intensity of ILI seasonality in Vietnam is best explained by the intensity of AH seasonality. We find that ILI seasonality is weak in provinces experiencing weak seasonal fluctuations in AH (annual power power >17.6). In Vietnam, AH and ILI are positively correlated. Our results identify a role for AH in driving the epidemiology of ILI in a tropical setting. However, in contrast to temperate regions, high rather than low AH is associated with increased ILI activity. Fluctuation in AH may be the climate factor that underlies and unifies the seasonality of ILI in both temperate and tropical regions. Alternatively, the mechanism of action of AH on disease transmission may be different in cold-dry versus hot-humid settings

Parametric enhancement of the tunneling transmission through a potential barrier

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Masatoshi; Iwata, Giiti.

1992-01-01

A possibility of indicated of enhancing the tunneling transmission of particle incident on a potential barrier with the aid of an auxiliary potential parametrically in resonance with incident particles. For a simple auxiliary potential, a train of two-step square wells, examples are presented in which the ratio of the transmission coefficients with and without the auxiliary potential can be very large, e.g. (2n + 1) 2L , where n is the positive integer and L the number of the period of the auxiliary potential. (author)

Seasonal variation and potential sources of Cryptosporidium contamination in surface waters of Chao Phraya River and Bang Pu Nature Reserve pier, Thailand.

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Koompapong, Khuanchai; Sukthana, Yaowalark

2012-07-01

Using molecular techniques, a longitudinal study was conducted with the aims at identifying the seasonal difference of Cryptosporidium contamination in surface water as well as analyzing the potential sources based on species information. One hundred forty-four water samples were collected, 72 samples from the Chao Phraya River, Thailand, collected in the summer, rainy and cool seasons and 72 samples from sea water at Bang Pu Nature Reserve pier, collected before, during and after the presence of migratory seagulls. Total prevalence of Cryptosporidium contamination in river and sea water locations was 11% and 6%, respectively. The highest prevalence was observed at the end of rainy season continuing into the cool season in river water (29%) and in sea water (12%). During the rainy season, prevalence of Cryptosporidium was 4% in river and sea water samples, but none in summer season. All positive samples from the river was C. parvum, while C. meleagridis (1), and C. serpentis (1) were obtained from sea water. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first genetic study in Thailand of Cryptosporidium spp contamination in river and sea water locations and the first report of C. serpentis, suggesting that humans, household pets, farm animals, wildlife and migratory birds may be the potential sources of the parasites. The findings are of use for implementing preventive measures to reduce the transmission of cryptosporidiosis to both humans and animals.

Differential induction of immunoglobulin G to Plasmodium falciparum variant surface antigens during the transmission season in Daraweesh, Sudan

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Morten A; Grevstad, Berit; A-Elgadir, Thoraya M E

2005-01-01

with severe malaria (VSA(SM)) are frequently recognized by IgG. METHODS: We analyzed levels of anti-VSA IgG in 57 individuals in Daraweesh, Sudan, before and after the transmission season. IgG responses to 79 Plasmodium falciparum isolates from children with defined malaria syndromes and exposed to high...

SEASONAL VARIATION IN LIGHT TRANSMISSION AND CANOPY GAPS OF DECIDUOUS ROADSIDE VEGETATION: ASSESSMENT WITHIN FOREST LANDSCAPE

OpenAIRE

Öztürk, Melih; Gökyer, Ercan

2015-01-01

Deciduous roadside vegetation exhibits seasonal patterns of foliage with varying colors and numbers. Hence the alternating percentage of the gaps within the roadside canopy allows changing percentages of light transmission throughout the year. The leafless roadside vegetation in winter is sequentially subject to budburst, flushing, and development stages until the summer, when the leaves are fully developed both in size and number. Then, defoliation follows senescence, and fading and fall sta...

Calculating the potential for within-flight transmission of influenza A (H1N1

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Blower Sally

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Clearly air travel, by transporting infectious individuals from one geographic location to another, significantly affects the rate of spread of influenza A (H1N1. However, the possibility of within-flight transmission of H1N1 has not been evaluated; although it is known that smallpox, measles, tuberculosis, SARS and seasonal influenza can be transmitted during commercial flights. Here we present the first quantitative risk assessment to assess the potential for within-flight transmission of H1N1. Methods We model airborne transmission of infectious viral particles of H1N1 within a Boeing 747 using methodology from the field of quantitative microbial risk assessment. Results The risk of catching H1N1 will essentially be confined to passengers travelling in the same cabin as the source case. Not surprisingly, we find that the longer the flight the greater the number of infections that can be expected. We calculate that H1N1, even during long flights, poses a low to moderate within-flight transmission risk if the source case travels First Class. Specifically, 0-1 infections could occur during a 5 hour flight, 1-3 during an 11 hour flight and 2-5 during a 17 hour flight. However, within-flight transmission could be significant, particularly during long flights, if the source case travels in Economy Class. Specifically, two to five infections could occur during a 5 hour flight, 5-10 during an 11 hour flight and 7-17 during a 17 hour flight. If the aircraft is only partially loaded, under certain conditions more infections could occur in First Class than in Economy Class. During a 17 hour flight, a greater number of infections would occur in First Class than in Economy if the First Class Cabin is fully occupied, but Economy class is less than 30% full. Conclusions Our results provide insights into the potential utility of air travel restrictions on controlling influenza pandemics in the winter of 2009/2010. They show travel by one

Characterizing the transmission potential of zoonotic infections from minor outbreaks.

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Adam J Kucharski

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The transmission potential of a novel infection depends on both the inherent transmissibility of a pathogen, and the level of susceptibility in the host population. However, distinguishing between these pathogen- and population-specific properties typically requires detailed serological studies, which are rarely available in the early stages of an outbreak. Using a simple transmission model that incorporates age-stratified social mixing patterns, we present a novel method for characterizing the transmission potential of subcritical infections, which have effective reproduction number R<1, from readily available data on the size of outbreaks. We show that the model can identify the extent to which outbreaks are driven by inherent pathogen transmissibility and pre-existing population immunity, and can generate unbiased estimates of the effective reproduction number. Applying the method to real-life infections, we obtained accurate estimates for the degree of age-specific immunity against monkeypox, influenza A(H5N1 and A(H7N9, and refined existing estimates of the reproduction number. Our results also suggest minimal pre-existing immunity to MERS-CoV in humans. The approach we describe can therefore provide crucial information about novel infections before serological surveys and other detailed analyses are available. The methods would also be applicable to data stratified by factors such as profession or location, which would make it possible to measure the transmission potential of emerging infections in a wide range of settings.

Modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of Rift Valley fever virus

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Xiao, Yanyu; Beier, John C.; Cantrell, Robert Stephen; Cosner, Chris; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Ruan, Shigui

2015-01-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an important mosquito-borne viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that causes human deaths and significant economic losses due to huge incidences of death and abortion among infected livestock. Outbreaks of RVF are sporadic and associated with both seasonal and socioeconomic effects. Here we propose an almost periodic three-patch model to investigate the transmission dynamics of RVF virus (RVFV) among ruminants with spatial movements. Our findings indicate that, in Northeastern Africa, human activities, including those associated with the Eid al Adha feast, along with a combination of climatic factors such as rainfall level and hydrological variations, contribute to the transmission and dispersal of the disease pathogen. Moreover, sporadic outbreaks may occur when the two events occur together: 1) abundant livestock are recruited into areas at risk from RVF due to the demand for the religious festival and 2) abundant numbers of mosquitoes emerge. These two factors have been shown to have impacts on the severity of RVF outbreaks. Our numerical results present the transmission dynamics of the disease pathogen over both short and long periods of time, particularly during the festival time. Further, we investigate the impact on patterns of disease outbreaks in each patch brought by festival- and seasonal-driven factors, such as the number of livestock imported daily, the animal transportation speed from patch to patch, and the death rate induced by ceremonial sacrifices. In addition, our simulations show that when the time for festival preparation starts earlier than usual, the risk of massive disease outbreaks rises, particularly in patch 3 (the place where the religious ceremony will be held).

Long-term and seasonal dynamics of dengue in Iquitos, Peru.

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Steven T Stoddard

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4 that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data.We studied 10 years (2000-2010 of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases.Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001-2007 then DENV-4 (2008-2010. After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼ 70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season.Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos.

Potential Impact of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention on the Acquisition of Antibodies Against Glutamate-Rich Protein and Apical Membrane Antigen 1 in Children Living in Southern Senegal

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ndiaye, Magatte; Sylla, Khadime; Sow, Doudou

2015-01-01

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is defined as the intermittent administration of full treatment courses of an antimalarial drug to children during the peak of malaria transmission season with the aim of preventing malaria-associated mortality and morbidity. SMC using sulfadoxine-pyrimetham......Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is defined as the intermittent administration of full treatment courses of an antimalarial drug to children during the peak of malaria transmission season with the aim of preventing malaria-associated mortality and morbidity. SMC using sulfadoxine......-pyrimethamine (SP) combined with amodiaquine (AQ) is a promising strategy to control malaria morbidity in areas of highly seasonal malaria transmission. However, a concern is whether SMC can delay the natural acquisition of immunity toward malaria parasites in areas with intense SMC delivery. To investigate this......, total IgG antibody (Ab) responses to Plasmodium falciparum antigens glutamate-rich protein R0 (GLURP-R0) and apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA-1) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in Senegalese children under the age of 10 years in 2010 living in Saraya and Velingara districts (with SMC...

Seasonal and regional dynamics of M. ulcerans transmission in environmental context: deciphering the role of water bugs as hosts and vectors.

Science.gov (United States)

Marion, Estelle; Eyangoh, Sara; Yeramian, Edouard; Doannio, Julien; Landier, Jordi; Aubry, Jacques; Fontanet, Arnaud; Rogier, Christophe; Cassisa, Viviane; Cottin, Jane; Marot, Agnès; Eveillard, Matthieu; Kamdem, Yannick; Legras, Pierre; Deshayes, Caroline; Saint-André, Jean-Paul; Marsollier, Laurent

2010-07-06

Buruli ulcer, the third mycobacterial disease after tuberculosis and leprosy, is caused by the environmental mycobacterium M. ulcerans. Various modes of transmission have been suspected for this disease, with no general consensus acceptance for any of them up to now. Since laboratory models demonstrated the ability of water bugs to transmit M. ulcerans, a particular attention is focused on the transmission of the bacilli by water bugs as hosts and vectors. However, it is only through detailed knowledge of the biodiversity and ecology of water bugs that the importance of this mode of transmission can be fully assessed. It is the objective of the work here to decipher the role of water bugs in M. ulcerans ecology and transmission, based on large-scale field studies. The distribution of M. ulcerans-hosting water bugs was monitored on previously unprecedented time and space scales: a total of 7,407 water bugs, belonging to large number of different families, were collected over one year, in Buruli ulcer endemic and non endemic areas in central Cameroon. This study demonstrated the presence of M. ulcerans in insect saliva. In addition, the field results provided a full picture of the ecology of transmission in terms of biodiversity and detailed specification of seasonal and regional dynamics, with large temporal heterogeneity in the insect tissue colonization rate and detection of M. ulcerans only in water bug tissues collected in Buruli ulcer endemic areas. The large-scale detection of bacilli in saliva of biting water bugs gives enhanced weight to their role in M. ulcerans transmission. On practical grounds, beyond the ecological interest, the results concerning seasonal and regional dynamics can provide an efficient tool in the hands of sanitary authorities to monitor environmental risks associated with Buruli ulcer.

Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico.

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Michael A Johansson

Full Text Available The four dengue viruses, the agents of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever in humans, are transmitted predominantly by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. The abundance and the transmission potential of Ae. aegypti are influenced by temperature and precipitation. While there is strong biological evidence for these effects, empirical studies of the relationship between climate and dengue incidence in human populations are potentially confounded by seasonal covariation and spatial heterogeneity. Using 20 years of data and a statistical approach to control for seasonality, we show a positive and statistically significant association between monthly changes in temperature and precipitation and monthly changes in dengue transmission in Puerto Rico. We also found that the strength of this association varies spatially, that this variation is associated with differences in local climate, and that this relationship is consistent with laboratory studies of the impacts of these factors on vector survival and viral replication. These results suggest the importance of temperature and precipitation in the transmission of dengue viruses and suggest a reason for their spatial heterogeneity. Thus, while dengue transmission may have a general system, its manifestation on a local scale may differ from global expectations.

Potential impacts of nanotechnology on energy transmission applications and needs.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elcock, D.; Environmental Science Division

2007-11-30

The application of nanotechnologies to energy transmission has the potential to significantly impact both the deployed transmission technologies and the need for additional development. This could be a factor in assessing environmental impacts of right-of-way (ROW) development and use. For example, some nanotechnology applications may produce materials (e.g., cables) that are much stronger per unit volume than existing materials, enabling reduced footprints for construction and maintenance of electricity transmission lines. Other applications, such as more efficient lighting, lighter-weight materials for vehicle construction, and smaller batteries having greater storage capacities may reduce the need for long-distance transport of energy, and possibly reduce the need for extensive future ROW development and many attendant environmental impacts. This report introduces the field of nanotechnology, describes some of the ways in which processes and products developed with or incorporating nanomaterials differ from traditional processes and products, and identifies some examples of how nanotechnology may be used to reduce potential ROW impacts. Potential environmental, safety, and health impacts are also discussed.

Sexual Transmission of XMRV: A Potential Infection Route

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Prachi Sharma

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Although XMRV dissemination in humans is a matter of debate, the prostate of select patients seem to harbor XMRV, which raises questions about its potential route of transmission. We established a model of infection in rhesus macaques inoculated with XMRV. In spite of the intravenous inoculation, all infected macaques exhibited readily detectable XMRV signal in the reproductive tract of all 4 males and 1 female during both acute and chronic infection stages. XMRV showed explosive growth in the acini of prostate during acute but not chronic infection. In seminal vesicles, epididymis, and testes, XMRV protein production was detected throughout infection in interstitial or epithelial cells. In the female monkey, epithelial cells in the cervix and vagina were also positive for XMRV gag. The ready detection of XMRV in the reproductive tract of male and female macaques infected intravenously suggests the potential for sexual transmission for XMRV.

Age-patterns of malaria vary with severity, transmission intensity and seasonality in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and pooled analysis.

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Ilona Carneiro

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There is evidence that the age-pattern of Plasmodium falciparum malaria varies with transmission intensity. A better understanding of how this varies with the severity of outcome and across a range of transmission settings could enable locally appropriate targeting of interventions to those most at risk. We have, therefore, undertaken a pooled analysis of existing data from multiple sites to enable a comprehensive overview of the age-patterns of malaria outcomes under different epidemiological conditions in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A systematic review using PubMed and CAB Abstracts (1980-2005, contacts with experts and searching bibliographies identified epidemiological studies with data on the age distribution of children with P. falciparum clinical malaria, hospital admissions with malaria and malaria-diagnosed mortality. Studies were allocated to a 3x2 matrix of intensity and seasonality of malaria transmission. Maximum likelihood methods were used to fit five continuous probability distributions to the percentage of each outcome by age for each of the six transmission scenarios. The best-fitting distributions are presented graphically, together with the estimated median age for each outcome. Clinical malaria incidence was relatively evenly distributed across the first 10 years of life for all transmission scenarios. Hospital admissions with malaria were more concentrated in younger children, with this effect being even more pronounced for malaria-diagnosed deaths. For all outcomes, the burden of malaria shifted towards younger ages with increasing transmission intensity, although marked seasonality moderated this effect. CONCLUSIONS: The most severe consequences of P. falciparum malaria were concentrated in the youngest age groups across all settings. Despite recently observed declines in malaria transmission in several countries, which will shift the burden of malaria cases towards older children, it

Hydroclimatic influences on seasonal and spatial cholera transmission cycles: Implications for public health intervention in the Bengal Delta

Science.gov (United States)

Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Jutla, Antarpreet S.; Alam, Munirul; de Magny, Guillaume Constantin; Siddique, A. Kasem; Sack, R. Bradley; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.; Islam, Shafiqul

2011-03-01

Cholera remains a major public health threat in many developing countries around the world. The striking seasonality and annual recurrence of this infectious disease in endemic areas remain of considerable interest to scientists and public health workers. Despite major advances in the ecological and microbiological understanding of Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of the disease, the role of underlying large-scale hydroclimatic processes in propagating the disease for different seasons and spatial locations is not well understood. Here we show that the cholera outbreaks in the Bengal Delta region are propagated from the coastal to the inland areas and from spring to fall by two distinctly different transmission cycles, premonsoon and postmonsoon, influenced by coastal and terrestrial hydroclimatic processes, respectively. A coupled analysis of the regional hydroclimate and cholera incidence reveals a strong association of the space-time variability of incidence peaks with seasonal processes and extreme climatic events. We explain how the asymmetric seasonal hydroclimatology affects regional cholera dynamics by providing a coastal growth environment for bacteria in spring, while propagating the disease to fall by monsoon flooding. Our findings may serve as the basis for "climate-informed" early warnings and for prompting effective means for intervention and preempting epidemic cholera outbreaks in vulnerable regions.

Influenza transmission in a cohort of households with children: 2010-2011.

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Joshua G Petrie

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Households play a major role in community spread of influenza and are potential targets for mitigation strategies. METHODS: We enrolled and followed 328 households with children during the 2010-2011 influenza season; this season was characterized by circulation of influenza A (H3N2, A (H1N1pdm09 and type B viruses. Specimens were collected from subjects with acute respiratory illnesses and tested for influenza in real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR assays. Influenza cases were classified as community-acquired or household-acquired, and transmission parameters estimated. RESULTS: Influenza was introduced to 78 (24% households and transmission to exposed household members was documented in 23 households. Transmission was more likely in younger households (mean age <22 years and those not reporting home humidification, but was not associated with household vaccination coverage. The secondary infection risk (overall 9.7% was highest among young children (<9 years and varied substantially by influenza type/subtype with the highest risk for influenza A (H3N2. The serial interval (overall 3.2 days also varied by influenza type and was longest for influenza B. Duration of symptomatic illness was shorter in children compared with adults, and did not differ by influenza vaccination status. DISCUSSION: Prospective study of households with children over a single influenza season identified differences in household transmission by influenza type/subtype, subject age, and home humidification, suggesting possible targets for interventions to reduce transmission.

Limited variation in vaccine candidate Plasmodium falciparum Merozoite Surface Protein-6 over multiple transmission seasons

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Branch OraLee H

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Plasmodium falciparum Merozoite Surface Protein-6 (PfMSP6 is a component of the complex proteinacious coat that surrounds P. falciparum merozoites. This location, and the presence of anti-PfMSP6 antibodies in P. falciparum-exposed individuals, makes PfMSP6 a potential blood stage vaccine target. However, genetic diversity has proven to be a major hurdle for vaccines targeting other blood stage P. falciparum antigens, and few endemic field studies assessing PfMSP6 gene diversity have been conducted. This study follows PfMSP6 diversity in the Peruvian Amazon from 2003 to 2006 and is the first longitudinal assessment of PfMSP6 sequence dynamics. Methods Parasite DNA was extracted from 506 distinct P. falciparum infections spanning the transmission seasons from 2003 to 2006 as part of the Malaria Immunology and Genetics in the Amazon (MIGIA cohort study near Iquitos, Peru. PfMSP6 was amplified from each sample using a nested PCR protocol, genotyped for allele class by agarose gel electrophoresis, and sequenced to detect diversity. Allele frequencies were analysed using JMP v.8.0.1.0 and correlated with clinical and epidemiological data collected as part of the MIGIA project. Results Both PfMSP6 allele classes, K1-like and 3D7-like, were detected at the study site, confirming that both are globally distributed. Allele frequencies varied significantly between transmission seasons, with 3D7-class alleles dominating and K1-class alleles nearly disappearing in 2005 and 2006. There was a significant association between allele class and village location (p-value = 0.0008, but no statistically significant association between allele class and age, sex, or symptom status. No intra-allele class sequence diversity was detected. Conclusions Both PfMSP6 allele classes are globally distributed, and this study shows that allele frequencies can fluctuate significantly between communities separated by only a few kilometres, and over time in the

The potential for measles transmission in England

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Fraser Graham

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Since the schools vaccination campaign in 1994, measles has been eliminated from England. Maintaining elimination requires low susceptibility levels to keep the effective reproduction number R below 1. Since 1995, however, MMR coverage in two year old children has decreased by more than 10%. Methods Quarterly MMR coverage data for children aged two and five years resident in each district health authority in England were used to estimate susceptibility to measles by age. The effective reproduction numbers for each district and strategic health authority were calculated and possible outbreak sizes estimated. Results In 2004/05, about 1.9 million school children and 300,000 pre-school children were recorded as incompletely vaccinated against measles in England, including more than 800,000 children completely unvaccinated. Based on this, approximately 1.3 million children aged 2–17 years were susceptible to measles. In 14 of the 99 districts, the level of susceptibility is sufficiently high for R to exceed 1, indicating the potential for sustained measles transmission. Eleven of these districts are in London. Our model suggests that the potential exists for an outbreak of up to 100,000 cases. These results are sensitive to the accuracy of reported vaccination coverage data. Conclusion Our analysis identified several districts with the potential for sustaining measles transmission. Many London areas remain at high risk even allowing for considerable under-reporting of coverage. Primary care trusts should ensure that accurate systems are in place to identify unimmunised children and to offer catch-up immunisation for those not up to date for MMR.

Seasonal fluctuations of small mammal and flea communities in a Ugandan plague focus: evidence to implicate Arvicanthis niloticus and Crocidura spp. as key hosts in Yersinia pestis transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Sean M; Monaghan, Andrew; Borchert, Jeff N; Mpanga, Joseph T; Atiku, Linda A; Boegler, Karen A; Montenieri, John; MacMillan, Katherine; Gage, Kenneth L; Eisen, Rebecca J

2015-01-08

The distribution of human plague risk is strongly associated with rainfall in the tropical plague foci of East Africa, but little is known about how the plague bacterium is maintained during periods between outbreaks or whether environmental drivers trigger these outbreaks. We collected small mammals and fleas over a two year period in the West Nile region of Uganda to examine how the ecological community varies seasonally in a region with areas of both high and low risk of human plague cases. Seasonal changes in the small mammal and flea communities were examined along an elevation gradient to determine whether small mammal and flea populations exhibit differences in their response to seasonal fluctuations in precipitation, temperature, and crop harvests in areas within (above 1300 m) and outside (below 1300 m) of a model-defined plague focus. The abundance of two potential enzootic host species (Arvicanthis niloticus and Crocidura spp.) increased during the plague season within the plague focus, but did not show the same increase at lower elevations outside this focus. In contrast, the abundance of the domestic rat population (Rattus rattus) did not show significant seasonal fluctuations regardless of locality. Arvicanthis niloticus abundance was negatively associated with monthly precipitation at a six month lag and positively associated with current monthly temperatures, and Crocidura spp. abundance was positively associated with precipitation at a three month lag and negatively associated with current monthly temperatures. The abundance of A. niloticus and Crocidura spp. were both positively correlated with the harvest of millet and maize. The association between the abundance of several small mammal species and rainfall is consistent with previous models of the timing of human plague cases in relation to precipitation in the West Nile region. The seasonal increase in the abundance of key potential host species within the plague focus, but not outside of

Gametocytogenesis Following Drug Treatment of Plasmodium Falciparum in an Area of Seasonal Transmission in Sudan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mackinnon, M. J.M; Walliker, D.; Babiker, A.; Ahmed, S.; Abdel-Muhsin, A.; Eltayeb, A.

2007-01-01

We monitored post-treatment Plasmodium falciparum among patients treated with chloroquine (CQ) and pyrimethamine-sulfadoxine (PS) in a village in eastern Sudan. Parasites were examined on day zero (pre-treatment), day 7, day 14 and day 21 (post-treatment) during the transmission season. A further sample was taken two months later (Day 80) at the start of the dry season. Asexual forms and gametocytes were detected by microscopy and reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to detect expression of a gametocyte-specific protein pfg377. Gametocyte carriage, as revealed by microscopy, increased significantly following CQ and PS treatment reaching a maximum between days 7 and 14. When measured by RT-PCR, however, there was no significant difference in gametocyte rate between day 0 and day 7 or 14. RT-PCR gametocyte rates dropped dramatically by day 80 post-treatment but were still 33% and 8% in the CQ and PS treated group at this time. Alleles associated with drug resistance of P. falciparum to chloroquine (the chloroquine resistance transporter, pfcrt, and multi-drug resistance, pfmdr-1) and pyrimethamine (dihydrofolate reductase, dhfr) were at high frequency at the beginning of treatment and increased further through time under both drug treatments. Infections with drug-resistant parasites tended to have higher gametocyte prevalence than drug-sensitive infections.

Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users

Science.gov (United States)

Alessandri, Andrea; Felice, Matteo De; Catalano, Franco; Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin; Lee, Doo Young; Yoo, Jin-Ho; Weisheimer, Antije

2018-04-01

Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) are powerful tools in dynamical climate prediction as they account for the overconfidence and the uncertainties related to single-model ensembles. Previous works suggested that the potential benefit that can be expected by using a MME amplifies with the increase of the independence of the contributing Seasonal Prediction Systems. In this work we combine the two MME Seasonal Prediction Systems (SPSs) independently developed by the European (ENSEMBLES) and by the Asian-Pacific (APCC/CliPAS) communities. To this aim, all the possible multi-model combinations obtained by putting together the 5 models from ENSEMBLES and the 11 models from APCC/CliPAS have been evaluated. The grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME enhances significantly the skill in predicting 2m temperature and precipitation compared to previous estimates from the contributing MMEs. Our results show that, in general, the better combinations of SPSs are obtained by mixing ENSEMBLES and APCC/CliPAS models and that only a limited number of SPSs is required to obtain the maximum performance. The number and selection of models that perform better is usually different depending on the region/phenomenon under consideration so that all models are useful in some cases. It is shown that the incremental performance contribution tends to be higher when adding one model from ENSEMBLES to APCC/CliPAS MMEs and vice versa, confirming that the benefit of using MMEs amplifies with the increase of the independence the contributing models. To verify the above results for a real world application, the Grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME is used to predict retrospective energy demand over Italy as provided by TERNA (Italian Transmission System Operator) for the period 1990-2007. The results demonstrate the useful application of MME seasonal predictions for energy demand forecasting over Italy. It is shown a significant enhancement of the potential economic value of forecasting energy demand when using the

Successful Interruption of Transmission of Onchocerca volvulus in the Escuintla-Guatemala Focus, Guatemala

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez, Rodrigo J.; Cruz-Ortiz, Nancy; Rizzo, Nidia; Richards, Jane; Zea-Flores, Guillermo; Domínguez, Alfredo; Sauerbrey, Mauricio; Catú, Eduardo; Oliva, Orlando; Richards, Frank O.; Lindblade, Kim A.

2009-01-01

Background Elimination of onchocerciasis (river blindness) through mass administration of ivermectin in the six countries in Latin America where it is endemic is considered feasible due to the relatively small size and geographic isolation of endemic foci. We evaluated whether transmission of onchocerciasis has been interrupted in the endemic focus of Escuintla-Guatemala in Guatemala, based on World Health Organization criteria for the certification of elimination of onchocerciasis. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted evaluations of ocular morbidity and past exposure to Onchocerca volvulus in the human population, while potential vectors (Simulium ochraceum) were captured and tested for O. volvulus DNA; all of the evaluations were carried out in potentially endemic communities (PEC; those with a history of actual or suspected transmission or those currently under semiannual mass treatment with ivermectin) within the focus. The prevalence of microfilariae in the anterior segment of the eye in 329 individuals (≥7 years old, resident in the PEC for at least 5 years) was 0% (one-sided 95% confidence interval [CI] 0–0.9%). The prevalence of antibodies to a recombinant O. volvulus antigen (Ov-16) in 6,432 school children (aged 6 to 12 years old) was 0% (one-sided 95% IC 0–0.05%). Out of a total of 14,099 S. ochraceum tested for O. volvulus DNA, none was positive (95% CI 0–0.01%). The seasonal transmission potential was, therefore, 0 infective stage larvae per person per season. Conclusions/Significance Based on these evaluations, transmission of onchocerciasis in the Escuintla-Guatemala focus has been successfully interrupted. Although this is the second onchocerciasis focus in Latin America to have demonstrated interruption of transmission, it is the first focus with a well-documented history of intense transmission to have eliminated O. volvulus. PMID:19333366

Phonon transmission and thermal conductance in one-dimensional system with on-site potential disorder

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma Songshan; Xu Hui; Deng Honggui; Yang Bingchu

2011-01-01

The role of on-site potential disorder on phonon transmission and thermal conductance of one-dimensional system is investigated. We found that the on-site potential disorder can lead to the localization of phonons, and has great effect on the phonon transmission and thermal conductance of the system. As on-site potential disorder W increases, the transmission coefficients decrease, and approach zero at the band edges. Corresponding, the thermal conductance decreases drastically, and the curves for thermal conductance exhibit a series of steps and plateaus. Meanwhile, when the on-site potential disorder W is strong enough, the thermal conductance decreases dramatically with the increase of system size N. We also found that the efficiency of reducing thermal conductance by increasing the on-site potential disorder strength is much better than that by increasing the on-site potential's amplitude. - Highlights: → We studied the effect of on-site potential disorder on thermal transport. → Increasing disorder will decrease thermal transport. → Increasing system size will also decrease its thermal conductance. → Increasing disorder is more efficient than other in reducing thermal conductance.

Seasonality and potential of Ceranisus menes for control of thrips on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Seasonality and potential of Ceranisus menes for control of thrips on French beans. LM Gitonga. Abstract. No Abstract. Journal of Agriculture, Science and Technology Vol. 10 (1) 2008: pp. 56-69. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

The ecological foundations of transmission potential and vector-borne disease in urban landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

LaDeau, Shannon L; Allan, Brian F; Leisnham, Paul T; Levy, Michael Z

2015-07-01

Urban transmission of arthropod-vectored disease has increased in recent decades. Understanding and managing transmission potential in urban landscapes requires integration of sociological and ecological processes that regulate vector population dynamics, feeding behavior, and vector-pathogen interactions in these unique ecosystems. Vectorial capacity is a key metric for generating predictive understanding about transmission potential in systems with obligate vector transmission. This review evaluates how urban conditions, specifically habitat suitability and local temperature regimes, and the heterogeneity of urban landscapes can influence the biologically-relevant parameters that define vectorial capacity: vector density, survivorship, biting rate, extrinsic incubation period, and vector competence.Urban landscapes represent unique mosaics of habitat. Incidence of vector-borne disease in urban host populations is rarely, if ever, evenly distributed across an urban area. The persistence and quality of vector habitat can vary significantly across socio-economic boundaries to influence vector species composition and abundance, often generating socio-economically distinct gradients of transmission potential across neighborhoods.Urban regions often experience unique temperature regimes, broadly termed urban heat islands (UHI). Arthropod vectors are ectothermic organisms and their growth, survival, and behavior are highly sensitive to environmental temperatures. Vector response to UHI conditions is dependent on regional temperature profiles relative to the vector's thermal performance range. In temperate climates UHI can facilitate increased vector development rates while having countervailing influence on survival and feeding behavior. Understanding how urban heat island (UHI) conditions alter thermal and moisture constraints across the vector life cycle to influence transmission processes is an important direction for both empirical and modeling research.There remain

Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Kapnick, Sarah B.; Yang, Xiaosong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Gudgel, Rich; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.; Shevliakova, Elena; Underwood, Seth; Margulis, Steven A.

2018-01-01

Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

Sexual Transmission of XMRV: A Potential Infection Route

OpenAIRE

Sharma, Prachi; Rogers, Kenneth A.; Suppiah, Suganthi; Molinaro, Ross J.; Onlamoon, Nattawat; Hackett, John; Schochetman, Gerald; Klein, Eric A.; Silverman, Robert H.; Villinger, Fran?ois

2011-01-01

Although XMRV dissemination in humans is a matter of debate, the prostate of select patients seem to harbor XMRV, which raises questions about its potential route of transmission. We established a model of infection in rhesus macaques inoculated with XMRV. In spite of the intravenous inoculation, all infected macaques exhibited readily detectable XMRV signal in the reproductive tract of all 4 males and 1 female during both acute and chronic infection stages. XMRV showed explosive growth in th...

Seasonal patterns in human A (H5N1 virus infection: analysis of global cases.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maya B Mathur

Full Text Available Human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI A (H5N1 have high mortality. Despite abundant data on seasonal patterns in influenza epidemics, it is unknown whether similar patterns exist for human HPAI H5N1 cases worldwide. Such knowledge could help decrease avian-to-human transmission through increased prevention and control activities during peak periods.We performed a systematic search of published human HPAI H5N1 cases to date, collecting month, year, country, season, hemisphere, and climate data. We used negative binomial regression to predict changes in case incidence as a function of season. To investigate hemisphere as a potential moderator, we used AIC and the likelihood-ratio test to compare the season-only model to nested models including a main effect or interaction with hemisphere. Finally, we visually assessed replication of seasonal patterns across climate groups based on the Köppen-Geiger climate classification.We identified 617 human cases (611 with complete seasonal data occurring in 15 countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Case occurrence was much higher in winter (n = 285, p = 0.03 than summer (n = 64, and the winter peak occurred across diverse climate groups. There was no significant interaction between hemisphere and season.Across diverse climates, HPAI H5N1 virus infection in humans increases significantly in winter. This is consistent with increased poultry outbreaks and HPAI H5N1 virus transmission during cold and dry conditions. Prioritizing prevention and control activities among poultry and focusing public health messaging to reduce poultry exposures during winter months may help to reduce zoonotic transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus in resource-limited settings.

Seasonal and Spatial Dynamics of the Primary Vector of Plasmodium knowlesi within a Major Transmission Focus in Sabah, Malaysia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng L Wong

Full Text Available The simian malaria parasite Plasmodium knowlesi is emerging as a public health problem in Southeast Asia, particularly in Malaysian Borneo where it now accounts for the greatest burden of malaria cases and deaths. Control is hindered by limited understanding of the ecology of potential vector species.We conducted a one year longitudinal study of P. knowlesi vectors in three sites within an endemic area of Sabah, Malaysia. All mosquitoes were captured using human landing catch. Anopheles mosquitoes were dissected to determine, oocyst, sporozoites and parous rate. Anopheles balabacensis is confirmed as the primary vector of. P. knowlesi (using nested PCR in Sabah for the first time. Vector densities were significantly higher and more seasonally variable in the village than forest or small scale farming site. However An. balabacensis survival and P. knowlesi infection rates were highest in forest and small scale farm sites. Anopheles balabacensis mostly bites humans outdoors in the early evening between 1800 to 2000 hrs.This study indicates transmission is unlikely to be prevented by bednets. This combined with its high vectorial capacity poses a threat to malaria elimination programmes within the region.

Impact of climate trends on tick-borne pathogen transmission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agustin eEstrada-Pena

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Recent advances in climate research together with a better understanding of tick-pathogen interactions, the distribution of ticks and the diagnosis of tick-borne pathogens raise questions about the impact of environmental factors on tick abundance and spread and the prevalence and transmission of tick-borne pathogens. While undoubtedly climate plays a role in the changes in distribution and seasonal abundance of ticks, it is always difficult to disentangle factors impacting on the abundance of tick hosts from those exerted by human habits. All together, climate, host abundance and social factors may explain the upsurge of epidemics transmitted by ticks to humans. Herein we focused on tick-borne pathogens that affect humans with pandemic potential. Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. (Lyme disease, Anaplasma phagocytophilum (human granulocytic anaplasmosis and tick-borne encephalitis virus (tick-borne encephalitis are transmitted by Ixodes spp. Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever is transmitted by Hyalomma spp. In this review, we discussed how vector tick species occupy the habitat as a function of different climatic factors, and how these factors impact on tick survival and seasonality. How molecular events at the tick-pathogen interface impact on pathogen transmission is also discussed. Results from statistically and biologically derived models are compared to show that while statistical models are able to outline basic information about tick distributions, biologically derived models are necessary to evaluate pathogen transmission rates and understand the effect of climatic variables and host abundance patterns on pathogen transmission. The results of these studies could be used to build early alert systems able to identify the main factors driving the subtle changes in tick distribution and seasonality and the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens.

Transmission time of a particle in the reflectionless Sech-squared potential: Quantum clock approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Chang-Soo

2011-01-01

We investigate the time for a particle to pass through the reflectionless Sech-squared potential. Using the Salecker-Wigner and Peres quantum clock an average transmission time of a Gaussian wave packet representing the particle is explicitly evaluated in terms of average momentum and travel distance. The average transmission time is shown to be shorter than the time of free-particle motion and very close to the classical time for wave packets with well-localized momentum states. Since the clock measures the duration of scattering process the average transmission time can be interpreted as the average dwell time. -- Highlights: → We examine the scattering of a particle in the Sech-squared potential. → We use quantum clock to find an average transmission time. → It is very close to the classical time. → It is shorter than the time of free particle. → It is interpreted as the average dwell time.

Mule deer spatial association patterns and potential implications for transmission of an epizootic disease.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Fernanda Mejía-Salazar

Full Text Available Animal social behaviour can have important effects on the long-term dynamics of diseases. In particular, preferential spatial relationships between individuals can lead to differences in the rates of disease spread within a population. We examined the concurrent influence of genetic relatedness, sex, age, home range overlap, time of year, and prion disease status on proximal associations of adult Rocky Mountain mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus hemionus in a chronic wasting disease endemic area. We also quantified the temporal stability of these associations across different sex, age, and disease status classes. We used three years of high frequency telemetry data from 74 individuals to record encounters within 25 m of each other, and to calculate seasonal home range overlap measured by volume of intersection (VI. The strength of pairwise spatial association between adult mule deer was independent of genetic relatedness, age and disease status. Seasonal variation in association strength was not consistent across years, perhaps due to annual changes in weather conditions. The influence of home range overlap on association strength varied seasonally, whereby associations were stronger in pre-rut and fawning than in the rest of the seasons. The sexes of individuals also interacted with both VI and season. At increasing levels of VI, associations were stronger between females than between males and between females and males. The strongest associations in pre-rut were between males, while the strongest in rut were between females and males. The temporal stability of associations was markedly dependant on the sex and the diagnosis of the associating pair. Our findings highlight the importance of considering concurrent effects of biological and environmental factors when seeking to understand the role of social preference in behavioural ecology and disease spread. Applying this knowledge in epidemiological modelling will shed light on the dynamics of

Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffrey Shaman

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here, we extend these findings to the human population level, showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions.

Chikungunya viral fitness measures within the vector and subsequent transmission potential.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebecca C Christofferson

Full Text Available Given the recent emergence of chikungunya in the Americas, the accuracy of forecasting and prediction of chikungunya transmission potential in the U.S. requires urgent assessment. The La Reunion-associated sub-lineage of chikungunya (with a valine substitution in the envelope protein was shown to increase viral fitness in the secondary vector, Ae. albopictus. Subsequently, a majority of experimental and modeling efforts focused on this combination of a sub-lineage of the East-Central-South African genotype (ECSA-V-Ae. albopictus, despite the Asian genotype being the etiologic agent of recent chikungunya outbreaks world-wide. We explore a collection of data to investigate relative transmission efficiencies of the three major genotypes/sub-lineages of chikungunya and found difference in the extrinsic incubation periods to be largely overstated. However, there is strong evidence supporting the role of Ae. albopictus in the expansion of chikungunya that our R0 calculations cannot attribute to fitness increases in one vector over another. This suggests other ecological factors associated with the Ae. albopictus-ECSA-V cycle may drive transmission intensity differences. With the apparent bias in literature, however, we are less prepared to evaluate transmission where Ae. aegypti plays a significant role. Holistic investigations of CHIKV transmission cycle(s will allow for more complete assessment of transmission risk in areas affected by either or both competent vectors.

Relationship between altitude and intensity of malaria transmission in the Usambara Mountains, Tanzania

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bødker, Rene; Akida, J.; Shayo, D.

2003-01-01

the holoendemic lowland and the hypoendemic highland plateau. Lowland transmission was perennial with a significant peak in the cool season after the long rains in May, when vectors densities were high. In the highlands, low temperatures prevented parasite development in mosquitoes during the cool season rains......, and highland transmission was therefore limited to the warm dry season when vector densities were low. The primary effect of increasing altitude was a log-linear reduction in vector abundance and, to a lesser extent, a reduction in the proportion of infective mosquitoes. Highland malaria transmission...

Measuring the potential utility of seasonal climate predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Tippett, Michael K.; Kleeman, Richard; Tang, Youmin

2004-11-01

Variation of sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal-to-interannual time-scales leads to changes in seasonal weather statistics and seasonal climate anomalies. Relative entropy, an information theory measure of utility, is used to quantify the impact of SST variations on seasonal precipitation compared to natural variability. An ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations is used to estimate this quantity in three regions where tropical SST has a large impact on precipitation: South Florida, the Nordeste of Brazil and Kenya. We find the yearly variation of relative entropy is strongly correlated with shifts in ensemble mean precipitation and weakly correlated with ensemble variance. Relative entropy is also found to be related to measures of the ability of the GCM to reproduce observations.

Nitrogen Fertilization Effect on Phosphorus Remediation Potential of Three Perennial Warm-Season Forages

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Newman, Y.C.; Agyin-Birikorang, S.; Adjei, M.B.; Scholberg, J.M.S.; Silveira, M.L.; Vendramini, J.M.B.; Rechcigl, J.E.; Sollenberger, L.E.

2009-01-01

Warm-season C-4 grasses are capable of removing excess soil nutrients because of their high Yield potential and nutrient uptake efficiency. Bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum Flugge), limpograss [Hemarthria altissima (Poir.) Stapf& Hubb], and stargrass (Cynodon nlemfuensis Vanderyst), three commonly

Ecology of potential West Nile virus vectors in southeastern Louisiana: enzootic transmission in the relative absence of Culex quinquefasciatus

Science.gov (United States)

Godsey, Marvin S.; King, Raymond J.; Burkhalter, Kristen; Delorey, Mark; Colton, Leah; Charnetzky, Dawn; Sutherland, Genevieve; Ezenwa, Vanessa O.; Wilson, Lawrence A.; Coffey, Michelle; Milheim, Lesley E.; Taylor, Viki G.; Palmisano, Charles; Wesson, Dawn M.; Guptill, Stephen C.

2013-01-01

A study of West Nile virus (WNV) ecology was conducted in St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana, from 2002 to 2004. Mosquitoes were collected weekly throughout the year using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps placed at 1.5 and 6 m above the ground and gravid traps. A total of 379,466 mosquitoes was collected. WNV was identified in 32 pools of mosquitoes comprising four species; 23 positive pools were from Culex nigripalpus collected during 2003. Significantly more positive pools were obtained from Cx. nigripalpus collected in traps placed at 6 m than 1.5 m that year, but abundance did not differ by trap height. In contrast, Cx. nigripalpus abundance was significantly greater in traps placed at 6 m in 2002 and 2004. Annual temporal variation in Cx. nigripalpus peak seasonal abundance has important implications for WNV transmission in Louisiana. One WNV-positive pool, from Cx. erraticus, was collected during the winter of 2004, showing year-round transmission. The potential roles of additional mosquito species in WNV transmission in southeastern Louisiana are discussed. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This article has been peer reviewed and approved for publication consistent with U.S. Geological Survey Fundamental Science Practices (http//pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1367/). Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current using the POAMA dynamical seasonal forecast model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hendon, Harry H.; Wang, Guomin [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, PO Box 1289, Melbourne (Australia)

2010-06-15

The potential for predicting interannual variations of the Leeuwin Current along the west coast of Australia is addressed. The Leeuwin Current flows poleward against the prevailing winds and transports warm-fresh tropical water southward along the coast, which has a great impact on local climate and ecosystems. Variations of the current are tightly tied to El Nino/La Nina (weak during El Nino and strong during La Nina). Skilful seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current to 9-month lead time is achieved by empirical downscaling of dynamical coupled model forecasts of El Nino and the associated upper ocean heat content anomalies off the north west coast of Australia from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) seasonal forecast system. Prediction of the Leeuwin Current is possible because the heat content fluctuations off the north west coast are the primary driver of interannual annual variations of the current and these heat content variations are tightly tied to the occurrence of El Nino/La Nina. POAMA can skilfully predict both the occurrence of El Nino/La Nina and the subsequent transmission of the heat content anomalies from the Pacific onto the north west coast. (orig.)

Establishing seasonal and alert influenza thresholds in Cambodia using the WHO method: implications for effective utilization of influenza surveillance in the tropics and subtropics.

Science.gov (United States)

Ly, Sovann; Arashiro, Takeshi; Ieng, Vanra; Tsuyuoka, Reiko; Parry, Amy; Horwood, Paul; Heng, Seng; Hamid, Sarah; Vandemaele, Katelijn; Chin, Savuth; Sar, Borann; Arima, Yuzo

2017-01-01

To establish seasonal and alert thresholds and transmission intensity categories for influenza to provide timely triggers for preventive measures or upscaling control measures in Cambodia. Using Cambodia's influenza-like illness (ILI) and laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance data from 2009 to 2015, three parameters were assessed to monitor influenza activity: the proportion of ILI patients among all outpatients, proportion of ILI samples positive for influenza and the product of the two. With these parameters, four threshold levels (seasonal, moderate, high and alert) were established and transmission intensity was categorized based on a World Health Organization alignment method. Parameters were compared against their respective thresholds. Distinct seasonality was observed using the two parameters that incorporated laboratory data. Thresholds established using the composite parameter, combining syndromic and laboratory data, had the least number of false alarms in declaring season onset and were most useful in monitoring intensity. Unlike in temperate regions, the syndromic parameter was less useful in monitoring influenza activity or for setting thresholds. Influenza thresholds based on appropriate parameters have the potential to provide timely triggers for public health measures in a tropical country where monitoring and assessing influenza activity has been challenging. Based on these findings, the Ministry of Health plans to raise general awareness regarding influenza among the medical community and the general public. Our findings have important implications for countries in the tropics/subtropics and in resource-limited settings, and categorized transmission intensity can be used to assess severity of potential pandemic influenza as well as seasonal influenza.

Probabilistic empirical prediction of seasonal climate: evaluation and potential applications

Science.gov (United States)

Dieppois, B.; Eden, J.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.

2017-12-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a new evaluation of an established empirical system used to predict seasonal climate across the globe. Forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are produced by the KNMI Probabilistic Empirical Prediction (K-PREP) system every month and disseminated via the KNMI Climate Explorer (climexp.knmi.nl). K-PREP is based on multiple linear regression and built on physical principles to the fullest extent with predictive information taken from the global CO2-equivalent concentration, large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and regional-scale information. K-PREP seasonal forecasts for the period 1981-2016 will be compared with corresponding dynamically generated forecasts produced by operational forecast systems. While there are many regions of the world where empirical forecast skill is extremely limited, several areas are identified where K-PREP offers comparable skill to dynamical systems. We discuss two key points in the future development and application of the K-PREP system: (a) the potential for K-PREP to provide a more useful basis for reference forecasts than those based on persistence or climatology, and (b) the added value of including K-PREP forecast information in multi-model forecast products, at least for known regions of good skill. We also discuss the potential development of

Seasonal blood-feeding behavior of Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae) in Weld County, Colorado, 2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Kent, Rebekah; Juliusson, Lara; Weissmann, Michael; Evans, Sara; Komar, Nicholas

2009-03-01

Studies on Culex tarsalis Coquillett in Colorado have shown marked seasonal variation in the proportion of blood meals from birds and mammals. However, limitations in the specificity of antibodies used in the precipitin test and lack of vertebrate host availability data warrant revisiting Cx. tarsalis blood feeding behavior in the context of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission. We characterized the host preference of Cx. tarsalis during peak WNV transmission season in eastern Colorado and estimated the relative contribution of different avian species to WNV transmission. Cx. tarsalis preferred birds to mammals each month, although the proportion of blood meals from mammals increased in July and August. The distribution of blood meals differed significantly across months, in part because of changes in the proportion of blood meals from American robins, a preferred host. The estimated proportion of WNV-infectious vectors derived from American robins declined from 60 to 1% between June and August. The majority of avian blood meals came from doves, preferred hosts that contributed 25-40% of the WNV-infectious mosquitoes each month. Active WNV transmission was observed in association with a large house sparrow communal roost. These data show how seasonal patterns in Cx. tarsalis blood feeding behavior relate to WNV transmission in eastern Colorado, with the American robin contributing greatly to early-season virus transmission and a communal roost of sparrows serving as a focus for late-season amplification.

Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Paige B; O'Dea, Eamon B; Rohani, Pejman; Drake, John M

2017-09-06

Despite high vaccination coverage, many childhood infections pose a growing threat to human populations. Accurate disease forecasting would be of tremendous value to public health. Forecasting disease emergence using early warning signals (EWS) is possible in non-seasonal models of infectious diseases. Here, we assessed whether EWS also anticipate disease emergence in seasonal models. We simulated the dynamics of an immunizing infectious pathogen approaching the tipping point to disease endemicity. To explore the effect of seasonality on the reliability of early warning statistics, we varied the amplitude of fluctuations around the average transmission. We proposed and analyzed two new early warning signals based on the wavelet spectrum. We measured the reliability of the early warning signals depending on the strength of their trend preceding the tipping point and then calculated the Area Under the Curve (AUC) statistic. Early warning signals were reliable when disease transmission was subject to seasonal forcing. Wavelet-based early warning signals were as reliable as other conventional early warning signals. We found that removing seasonal trends, prior to analysis, did not improve early warning statistics uniformly. Early warning signals anticipate the onset of critical transitions for infectious diseases which are subject to seasonal forcing. Wavelet-based early warning statistics can also be used to forecast infectious disease.

Impact of climate change and man-made irrigation systems on the transmission risk, long-term trend and seasonality of human and animal fascioliasis in Pakistan

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Kiran Afshan

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Large areas of the province of Punjab, Pakistan are endemic for fascioliasis, resulting in high economic losses due to livestock infection but also affecting humans directly. The prevalence in livestock varies pronouncedly in space and time (1-70%. Climatic factors influencing fascioliasis presence and potential spread were analysed based on data from five mete- orological stations during 1990-2010. Variables such as wet days (Mt, water-budget-based system (Wb-bs indices and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, were obtained and correlated with geographical distribution, seasonality patterns and the two-decade evolution of fascioliasis in livestock throughout the province. The combined approach by these three indices proved to furnish a useful tool to analyse the complex epidemiology that includes (i sheep-goats and cattle- buffaloes presenting different immunological responses to fasciolids; (ii overlap of Fasciola hepatica and F. gigantica; (iii co-existence of highlands and lowlands in the area studied; and (iv disease transmission following bi-seasonality with one peak related to natural rainfall and another peak related to man-made irrigation. Results suggest a human infection situa- tion of concern and illustrate how climate and anthropogenic environment modifications influence both geographical dis- tribution and seasonality of fascioliasis risks. Increased fascioliasis risk throughout the Punjab plain and its decrease in the northern highlands of the province became evident during the study period. The high risk in the lowlands is worrying given that Punjab province largely consists of low-altitude, highly irrigated plains. The importance of livestock in this province makes it essential to prioritise adequate control measures. An annual treatment scheme to control the disease is recom- mended to be applied throughout the whole province.

Impact of climate change and man-made irrigation systems on the transmission risk, long-term trend and seasonality of human and animal fascioliasis in Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Afshan, Kiran; Fortes-Lima, Cesar A; Artigas, Patricio; Valero, Adela M; Qayyum, Mazhar; Mas-Coma, Santiago

2014-05-01

Large areas of the province of Punjab, Pakistan are endemic for fascioliasis, resulting in high economic losses due to livestock infection but also affecting humans directly. The prevalence in livestock varies pronouncedly in space and time (1-70%). Climatic factors influencing fascioliasis presence and potential spread were analysed based on data from five meteorological stations during 1990-2010. Variables such as wet days (Mt), water-budget-based system (Wb-bs) indices and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were obtained and correlated with geographical distribution, seasonality patterns and the two-decade evolution of fascioliasis in livestock throughout the province. The combined approach by these three indices proved to furnish a useful tool to analyse the complex epidemiology that includes (i) sheep-goats and cattlebuffaloes presenting different immunological responses to fasciolids; (ii) overlap of Fasciola hepatica and F. gigantica; (iii) co-existence of highlands and lowlands in the area studied; and (iv) disease transmission following bi-seasonality with one peak related to natural rainfall and another peak related to man-made irrigation. Results suggest a human infection situation of concern and illustrate how climate and anthropogenic environment modifications influence both geographical distribution and seasonality of fascioliasis risks. Increased fascioliasis risk throughout the Punjab plain and its decrease in the northern highlands of the province became evident during the study period. The high risk in the lowlands is worrying given that Punjab province largely consists of low-altitude, highly irrigated plains. The importance of livestock in this province makes it essential to prioritise adequate control measures. An annual treatment scheme to control the disease is recommended to be applied throughout the whole province.

Wireless cardiac action potential transmission with ultrasonically inserted silicon microprobes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen, C J; Ramkumar, A; Lal, A; Gilmour, R F Jr

2011-01-01

This paper reports on the integration of ultrasonically inserted horn-shaped cardiac probes with wireless transmission of 3D cardiac action potential measurement for applications in ex vivo preparations such as monitoring the onset of ventricular fibrillation. Ultrasonically inserted silicon horn probes permit reduced penetration force during insertion, allowing silicon, a brittle material, to penetrate cardiac tissue. The probes also allow recording from multiple sites that are lithographically defined. An application-specific integrated circuit has been designed with a 40 dB amplifying stage and a frequency modulating oscillator at 95 MHz to wirelessly transmit the recorded action potentials. This ultrasonically inserted microprobe wireless system demonstrates the initial results in wireless monitoring of 3D action potential propagation, and the extraction of parameters of interest including the action potential duration and diastolic interval

Potential Transmission Pathways of Streptococcus gallolyticus subsp. gallolyticus.

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Jessika Dumke

Full Text Available Streptococcus gallolyticus subsp. gallolyticus (S. gallolyticus subsp. gallolyticus, a member of group D streptococci, is an inhabitant of the animal and human gastrointestinal tract. Furthermore, it is a facultative pathogen which causes e.g. endocarditis, septicemia and mastitis. S. gallolyticus subsp. gallolyticus may be transmitted either directly or indirectly between animals and humans. However, the transmission routes are an unsolved issue. In this study, we present systematic analyses of an S. gallolyticus subsp. gallolyticus isolate of an infective endocarditis patient in relation to isolates of his laying hen flock. Isolates from pooled droppings of laying hens, pooled dust samples and human blood culture were characterized by using multilocus sequence typing (MLST and DNA fingerprinting. MLST revealed the same allelic profile of isolates from the human blood culture and from the droppings of laying hens. In addition, these isolates showed clonal identity regarding a similar DNA fingerprinting pattern. For the first time, we received a hint that transmission of S. gallolyticus subsp. gallolyticus between poultry and humans may occur. This raises the question about the zoonotic potential of isolates from poultry and should be considered in future studies.

Host and pathogen ecology drive the seasonal dynamics of a fungal disease, white-nose syndrome.

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Langwig, Kate E; Frick, Winifred F; Reynolds, Rick; Parise, Katy L; Drees, Kevin P; Hoyt, Joseph R; Cheng, Tina L; Kunz, Thomas H; Foster, Jeffrey T; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2015-01-22

Seasonal patterns in pathogen transmission can influence the impact of disease on populations and the speed of spatial spread. Increases in host contact rates or births drive seasonal epidemics in some systems, but other factors may occasionally override these influences. White-nose syndrome, caused by the emerging fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans, is spreading across North America and threatens several bat species with extinction. We examined patterns and drivers of seasonal transmission of P. destructans by measuring infection prevalence and pathogen loads in six bat species at 30 sites across the eastern United States. Bats became transiently infected in autumn, and transmission spiked in early winter when bats began hibernating. Nearly all bats in six species became infected by late winter when infection intensity peaked. In summer, despite high contact rates and a birth pulse, most bats cleared infections and prevalence dropped to zero. These data suggest the dominant driver of seasonal transmission dynamics was a change in host physiology, specifically hibernation. Our study is the first, to the best of our knowledge, to describe the seasonality of transmission in this emerging wildlife disease. The timing of infection and fungal growth resulted in maximal population impacts, but only moderate rates of spatial spread. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2009-01-01

Seasonal variation in infection transmission is a key determinant of epidemic dynamics of acute infections. For measles, the best-understood strongly immunizing directly transmitted childhood infection, the perception is that term-time forcing is the main driver of seasonality in developed...... of seasonality and basic reproductive rate of infections that should result from term-time forcing are also not upheld. We conclude that where yearly trajectories of susceptible numbers are perturbed, e.g. via waning of immunity, seasonality is unlikely to be entirely driven by term-time forcing. For the three...... bacterial infections, pertussis, scarlet fever and diphtheria, there is additionally a strong increase in transmission during the late summer before the end of school vacations....

Between-group transmission dynamics of the swallow bug, Oeciacus vicarius.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Charles R; Brown, Mary Bomberger

2005-06-01

The parasitic cimicid swallow bug, Oeciacus vicarius, is the principal invertebrate vector for Buggy Creek virus (BCRV) and has also been associated with Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus. To help understand the spread of this vector, we experimentally measured the transmission of O. vicarius between groups (colonies) of its main host, the cliff swallow (Petrochelidonpyrrhonota), in the field. Transmission of bugs between colonies varied significantly with year, size of the colony, and week within the season. Bug immigration into sites tended to peak in mid-summer. Swallow nests in larger colonies had more consistent rates of bug introduction than did nests in small colonies, but within a colony a given nest's weekly immigrant-bug count varied widely across the season. Transmission of O. vicarius between host social groups follows broadly predictable seasonal patterns, but there is nevertheless temporal and spatial heterogeneity in bug transmission. By understanding how long-distance movement by this vector varies in time and space, we can better predict where and when BCRV epizootics may occur.

Delayed norovirus epidemic in the 2009-2010 season in Japan: potential relationship with intensive hand sanitizer use for pandemic influenza.

Science.gov (United States)

Inaida, S; Shobugawa, Y; Matsuno, S; Saito, R; Suzuki, H

2016-09-01

Norovirus (NoV) epidemics normally peak in December in Japan; however, the peak in the 2009-2010 season was delayed until the fourth week of January 2010. We suspected intensive hand hygiene that was conducted for a previous pandemic influenza in 2009 as the cause of this delay. We analysed the NoV epidemic trend, based on national surveillance data, and its associations with monthly output data for hand hygiene products, including alcohol-based skin antiseptics and hand soap. The delayed peak in the NoV incidence in the 2009-2010 season had the lowest number of recorded cases of the five seasons studied (2006-2007 to 2010-2011). GII.4 was the most commonly occurring genotype. The monthly relative risk of NoV and monthly output of both alcohol-based skin antiseptics and hand soap were significantly and negatively correlated. Our findings suggest an association between hand hygiene using these products and prevention of NoV transmission.

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Karen M; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V; Halsey, Eric S; Laguna-Torres, V Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W

2015-01-01

Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes.

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Karen M Campbell

Full Text Available Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather.We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5

Cost of heat from a seasonal source

Science.gov (United States)

Reilly, R. W.; Brown, D. R.; Huber, H. D.

Results are reported of an investigation to estimate the cost of aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) from a seasonal heat source. The cost of supplying energy (hot water) from an ATES system is estimated. Three types of loads are investigated: point demands, residential developments, and a multidistrict city. Several technical and economic factors are found to control the economic performance of an ATES system. Costs are found to be prohibitive for systems of small size, long transmission distances, and employing expensive purchased thermal energy. ATES is found to be cost-competitive with oil-fired and electric hot water delivery systems under a broad range of potential situations.

Seasonal and temporal patterns of NDMA formation potentials in surface waters.

Science.gov (United States)

Uzun, Habibullah; Kim, Daekyun; Karanfil, Tanju

2015-02-01

The seasonal and temporal patterns of N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) formation potentials (FPs) were examined with water samples collected monthly for 21 month period in 12 surface waters. This long term study allowed monitoring the patterns of NDMA FPs under dynamic weather conditions (e.g., rainy and dry periods) covering several seasons. Anthropogenically impacted waters which were determined by high sucralose levels (>100 ng/L) had higher NDMA FPs than limited impacted sources (NDMA FP showed more variability in spring months, while seasonal mean values remained relatively consistent. The study also showed that watershed characteristics played an important role in the seasonal and temporal patterns. In the two dam-controlled river systems (SW A and G), the NDMA FP levels at the downstream sampling locations were controlled by the NDMA levels in the dams independent of either the increases in discharge rates due to water releases from the dams prior to or during the heavy rain events or intermittent high NDMA FP levels observed at the upstream of dams. The large reservoirs and impoundments on rivers examined in this study appeared serving as an equalization basin for NDMA precursors. On the other hand, in a river without an upstream reservoir (SW E), the NDMA levels were influenced by the ratio of an upstream wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent discharge to the river discharge rate. The impact of WWTP effluent decreased during the high river flow periods due to rain events. Linear regression with independent variables DOC, DON, and sucralose yielded poor correlations with NDMA FP (R(2) NDMA FP (R(2) = 0.53). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preliminary findings on Bagaza virus (Flavivirus: Flaviviridae growth kinetics, transmission potential & transovarial transmission in three species of mosquitoes

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A B Sudeep

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background & objectives: Bagaza virus (BAGV, a flavivirus synonymous with Israel turkey meningoencephalitis virus, has been found to circulate in India. BAGV has recently been held responsible for inducing febrile illness in humans and causing unusually high mortality to wild birds in Spain. A study was therefore, undertaken to determine its replication kinetics in certain mosquitoes and to determine vector competence and potential of the mosquitoes to transmit BAGV experimentally. Methods: Aedes aegypti, Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Cx quinquefasciatus mosquitoes were inoculated with BAGV; samples were harvested every day and titrated in BHK-21 cell line. Vector competence and experimental transmission were determined by examining the saliva of infected mosquitoes for virus and induction of sickness in suckling mice, respectively. Results: Cx. tritaeniorhynchus and Ae. aegypti mosquitoes yielded 5 log 10 and 4.67 log 10 TCID 50 /ml of virus on day 3 post-infection (PI, respectively while Cx. quinquefasciatus yielded a titre of 4 log 10 TCID 50 /ml on day 4 PI. BAGV was detected in saliva of all the infected mosquitoes demonstrating their vector competence. Experimental transmission of BAGV to infant mice as well as transovarial transmission was demonstrated by Cx. tritaeniorhynchus but not by Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus mosquitoes. Interpretation & conclusions: Replication of BAGV to high titres and dissemination to saliva in three most prevalent mosquitoes in India is of immense public health importance. Though no major outbreak involving man has been reported yet, BAGV has a potential to cause outbreaks in future.

Evidence of suppression of onchocerciasis transmission in the Venezuelan Amazonian focus.

Science.gov (United States)

Botto, Carlos; Basañez, María-Gloria; Escalona, Marisela; Villamizar, Néstor J; Noya-Alarcón, Oscar; Cortez, José; Vivas-Martínez, Sarai; Coronel, Pablo; Frontado, Hortencia; Flores, Jorge; Graterol, Beatriz; Camacho, Oneida; Tovar, Yseliam; Borges, Daniel; Morales, Alba Lucia; Ríos, Dalila; Guerra, Francisco; Margeli, Héctor; Rodriguez, Mario Alberto; Unnasch, Thomas R; Grillet, María Eugenia

2016-01-27

The World Health Organization (WHO) has set goals for onchocerciasis elimination in Latin America by 2015. Most of the six previously endemic countries are attaining this goal by implementing twice a year (and in some foci, quarterly) mass ivermectin (Mectizan®) distribution. Elimination of transmission has been verified in Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico. Challenges remain in the Amazonian focus straddling Venezuela and Brazil, where the disease affects the hard-to-reach Yanomami indigenous population. We provide evidence of suppression of Onchocerca volvulus transmission by Simulium guianense s.l. in 16 previously hyperendemic Yanomami communities in southern Venezuela after 15 years of 6-monthly and 5 years of 3-monthly mass ivermectin treatment. Baseline and monitoring and evaluation parasitological, ophthalmological, entomological and serological surveys were conducted in selected sentinel and extra-sentinel communities of the focus throughout the implementation of the programme. From 2010 to 2012-2015, clinico-parasitological surveys indicate a substantial decrease in skin microfilarial prevalence and intensity of infection; accompanied by no evidence (or very low prevalence and intensity) of ocular microfilariae in the examined population. Of a total of 51,341 S. guianense flies tested by PCR none had L3 infection (heads only). Prevalence of infective flies and seasonal transmission potentials in 2012-2013 were, respectively, under 1% and 20 L3/person/transmission season. Serology in children aged 1-10 years demonstrated that although 26 out of 396 (7%) individuals still had Ov-16 antibodies, only 4/218 (2%) seropositives were aged 1-5 years. We report evidence of recent transmission and morbidity suppression in some communities of the focus representing 75% of the Yanomami population and 70% of all known communities. We conclude that onchocerciasis transmission could be feasibly interrupted in the Venezuelan Amazonian focus.

Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe

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Jing Liu-Helmersson

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC based on historic and projected temperature (1901–2099. VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence–if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901 to 2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe.

Seasonal Dynamics of Phlebotomine Sand Fly Species Proven Vectors of Mediterranean Leishmaniasis Caused by Leishmania infantum.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bulent Alten

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The recent geographical expansion of phlebotomine vectors of Leishmania infantum in the Mediterranean subregion has been attributed to ongoing climate changes. At these latitudes, the activity of sand flies is typically seasonal; because seasonal phenomena are also sensitive to general variations in climate, current phenological data sets can provide a baseline for continuing investigations on sand fly population dynamics that may impact on future scenarios of leishmaniasis transmission. With this aim, in 2011-2013 a consortium of partners from eight Mediterranean countries carried out entomological investigations in sites where L. infantum transmission was recently reported.A common protocol for sand fly collection included monthly captures by CDC light traps, complemented by sticky traps in most of the sites. Collections were replicated for more than one season in order to reduce the effects of local weather events. In each site, the trapping effort was left unchanged throughout the survey to legitimate inter-seasonal comparisons. Data from 99,000 collected specimens were analyzed, resulting in the description of seasonal dynamics of 56,000 sand flies belonging to L. infantum vector species throughout a wide geographical area, namely P. perniciosus (Portugal, Spain and Italy, P. ariasi (France, P. neglectus (Greece, P. tobbi (Cyprus and Turkey, P. balcanicus and P. kandelakii (Georgia. Time of sand fly appearance/disappearance in collections differed between sites, and seasonal densities showed variations in each site. Significant correlations were found between latitude/mean annual temperature of sites and i the first month of sand fly appearance, that ranged from early April to the first half of June; ii the type of density trend, varying from a single peak in July/August to multiple peaks increasing in magnitude from May through September. A 3-modal trend, recorded for P. tobbi in Cyprus, represents a novel finding for a L. infantum vector

Seasonal Dynamics of Phlebotomine Sand Fly Species Proven Vectors of Mediterranean Leishmaniasis Caused by Leishmania infantum.

Science.gov (United States)

Alten, Bulent; Maia, Carla; Afonso, Maria Odete; Campino, Lenea; Jiménez, Maribel; González, Estela; Molina, Ricardo; Bañuls, Anne Laure; Prudhomme, Jorian; Vergnes, Baptiste; Toty, Celine; Cassan, Cécile; Rahola, Nil; Thierry, Magali; Sereno, Denis; Bongiorno, Gioia; Bianchi, Riccardo; Khoury, Cristina; Tsirigotakis, Nikolaos; Dokianakis, Emmanouil; Antoniou, Maria; Christodoulou, Vasiliki; Mazeris, Apostolos; Karakus, Mehmet; Ozbel, Yusuf; Arserim, Suha K; Erisoz Kasap, Ozge; Gunay, Filiz; Oguz, Gizem; Kaynas, Sinan; Tsertsvadze, Nikoloz; Tskhvaradze, Lamzira; Giorgobiani, Ekaterina; Gramiccia, Marina; Volf, Petr; Gradoni, Luigi

2016-02-01

The recent geographical expansion of phlebotomine vectors of Leishmania infantum in the Mediterranean subregion has been attributed to ongoing climate changes. At these latitudes, the activity of sand flies is typically seasonal; because seasonal phenomena are also sensitive to general variations in climate, current phenological data sets can provide a baseline for continuing investigations on sand fly population dynamics that may impact on future scenarios of leishmaniasis transmission. With this aim, in 2011-2013 a consortium of partners from eight Mediterranean countries carried out entomological investigations in sites where L. infantum transmission was recently reported. A common protocol for sand fly collection included monthly captures by CDC light traps, complemented by sticky traps in most of the sites. Collections were replicated for more than one season in order to reduce the effects of local weather events. In each site, the trapping effort was left unchanged throughout the survey to legitimate inter-seasonal comparisons. Data from 99,000 collected specimens were analyzed, resulting in the description of seasonal dynamics of 56,000 sand flies belonging to L. infantum vector species throughout a wide geographical area, namely P. perniciosus (Portugal, Spain and Italy), P. ariasi (France), P. neglectus (Greece), P. tobbi (Cyprus and Turkey), P. balcanicus and P. kandelakii (Georgia). Time of sand fly appearance/disappearance in collections differed between sites, and seasonal densities showed variations in each site. Significant correlations were found between latitude/mean annual temperature of sites and i) the first month of sand fly appearance, that ranged from early April to the first half of June; ii) the type of density trend, varying from a single peak in July/August to multiple peaks increasing in magnitude from May through September. A 3-modal trend, recorded for P. tobbi in Cyprus, represents a novel finding for a L. infantum vector. Adults

Fitness of Pandemic H1N1 and Seasonal influenza A viruses during Co-infection: Evidence of competitive advantage of pandemic H1N1 influenza versus seasonal influenza.

Science.gov (United States)

Perez, Daniel Roberto; Sorrell, Erin; Angel, Matthew; Ye, Jianqiang; Hickman, Danielle; Pena, Lindomar; Ramirez-Nieto, Gloria; Kimble, Brian; Araya, Yonas

2009-08-24

On June 11, 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a new H1N1 influenza pandemic. This pandemic strain is as transmissible as seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 influenza A viruses. Major concerns facing this pandemic are whether the new virus will replace, co-circulate and/or reassort with seasonal H1N1 and/or H3N2 human strains. Using the ferret model, we investigated which of these three possibilities were most likely favored. Our studies showed that the current pandemic virus is more transmissible than, and has a biological advantage over, prototypical seasonal H1 or H3 strains.

Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users

Science.gov (United States)

Alessandri, A.; De Felice, M.; Catalano, F.; Lee, J. Y.; Wang, B.; Lee, D. Y.; Yoo, J. H.; Weisheimer, A.

2017-12-01

By initiating a novel cooperation between the European and the Asian-Pacific climate-prediction communities, this work demonstrates the potential of gathering together their Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) to obtain useful climate predictions at seasonal time-scale.MMEs are powerful tools in dynamical climate prediction as they account for the overconfidence and the uncertainties related to single-model ensembles and increasing benefit is expected with the increase of the independence of the contributing Seasonal Prediction Systems (SPSs). In this work we combine the two MME SPSs independently developed by the European (ENSEMBLES) and by the Asian-Pacific (APCC/CliPAS) communities by establishing an unprecedented partnerships. To this aim, all the possible MME combinations obtained by putting together the 5 models from ENSEMBLES and the 11 models from APCC/CliPAS have been evaluated. The Grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME enhances significantly the skill in predicting 2m temperature and precipitation. Our results show that, in general, the better combinations of SPSs are obtained by mixing ENSEMBLES and APCC/CliPAS models and that only a limited number of SPSs is required to obtain the maximum performance. The selection of models that perform better is usually different depending on the region/phenomenon under consideration so that all models are useful in some cases. It is shown that the incremental performance contribution tends to be higher when adding one model from ENSEMBLES to APCC/CliPAS MMEs and vice versa, confirming that the benefit of using MMEs amplifies with the increase of the independence the contributing models.To verify the above results for a real world application, the Grand MME is used to predict energy demand over Italy as provided by TERNA (Italian Transmission System Operator) for the period 1990-2007. The results demonstrate the useful application of MME seasonal predictions for energy demand forecasting over Italy. It is shown a significant

Autochthonous Chikungunya Transmission and Extreme Climate Events in Southern France.

Science.gov (United States)

Roiz, David; Boussès, Philippe; Simard, Frédéric; Paupy, Christophe; Fontenille, Didier

2015-06-01

Extreme precipitation events are increasing as a result of ongoing global warming, but controversy surrounds the relationship between flooding and mosquito-borne diseases. A common view among the scientific community and public health officers is that heavy rainfalls have a flushing effect on breeding sites, which negatively affects vector populations, thereby diminishing disease transmission. During 2014 in Montpellier, France, there were at least 11 autochthonous cases of chikungunya caused by the invasive tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in the vicinity of an imported case. We show that an extreme rainfall event increased and extended the abundance of the disease vector Ae. albopictus, hence the period of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya. We report results from close monitoring of the adult and egg population of the chikungunya vector Ae. albopictus through weekly sampling over the entire mosquito breeding season, which revealed an unexpected pattern. Statistical analysis of the seasonal dynamics of female abundance in relation to climatic factors showed that these relationships changed after the heavy rainfall event. Before the inundations, accumulated temperatures are the most important variable predicting Ae. albopictus seasonal dynamics. However, after the inundations, accumulated rainfall over the 4 weeks prior to capture predicts the seasonal dynamics of this species and extension of the transmission period. Our empirical data suggests that heavy rainfall events did increase the risk of arbovirus transmission in Southern France in 2014 by favouring a rapid rise in abundance of vector mosquitoes. Further studies should now confirm these results in different ecological contexts, so that the impact of global change and extreme climatic events on mosquito population dynamics and the risk of disease transmission can be adequately understood.

High proportion of subclinical Plasmodium falciparum infections in an area of seasonal and unstable malaria in Sudan

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elhassan, I M; Hviid, L; Jakobsen, P H

1995-01-01

In the present longitudinal study, a cohort (n = 98) of children and adults 5-30 years of age living in an area of highly seasonal and unstable malaria transmission were followed for malaria morbidity during several successive transmission seasons. Based on morbidity surveillance during 1993 and ...

Seasonal variation in soil and plant water potentials in a Bolivian tropical moist and dry forest

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Markesteijn, L.; Iraipi, J.; Bongers, F.; Poorter, L.

2010-01-01

We determined seasonal variation in soil matric potentials (¿soil) along a topographical gradient and with soil depth in a Bolivian tropical dry (1160 mm y-1 rain) and moist forest (1580 mm y-1). In each forest we analysed the effect of drought on predawn leaf water potentials (¿pd) and drought

Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Charu, Vivek; Zeger, Scott; Gog, Julia

2017-01-01

Seasonal influenza epidemics offer unique opportunities to study the invasion and re-invasion waves of a pathogen in a partially immune population. Detailed patterns of spread remain elusive, however, due to lack of granular disease data. Here we model high-volume city-level medical claims data...... and human mobility proxies to explore the drivers of influenza spread in the US during 2002–2010. Although the speed and pathways of spread varied across seasons, seven of eight epidemics likely originated in the Southern US. Each epidemic was associated with 1–5 early long-range transmission events, half...... of which sparked onward transmission. Gravity model estimates indicate a sharp decay in influenza transmission with the distance between infectious and susceptible cities, consistent with spread dominated by work commutes rather than air traffic. Two early-onset seasons associated with antigenic novelty...

Transmission Line Ampacity Improvements of AltaLink Wind Plant Overhead Tie-Lines Using Weather-Based Dynamic Line Rating

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhattarai, Bishnu P.; Gentle, Jake P.; Hill, Porter; McJunkin, Tim; Myers, Kurt S.; Abbound, Alex; Renwick, Rodger; Hengst, David

2017-07-01

Abstract—Overhead transmission lines (TLs) are conventionally given seasonal ratings based on conservative environmental assumptions. Such an approach often results in underutilization of the line ampacity as the worst conditions prevail only for a short period over a year/season. We presents dynamic line rating (DLR) as an enabling smart grid technology that adaptively computes ratings of TLs based on local weather conditions to utilize additional headroom of existing lines. In particular, general line ampacity state solver utilizes measured weather data for computing the real-time thermal rating of the TLs. The performance of the presented method is demonstrated from a field study of DLR technology implementation on four TL segments at AltaLink, Canada. The performance is evaluated and quantified by comparing the existing static and proposed dynamic line ratings, and the potential benefits of DLR for enhanced transmission assets utilization. For the given line segments, the proposed DLR results in real-time ratings above the seasonal static ratings for most of the time; up to 95.1% of the time, with a mean increase of 72% over static rating.

Seasonal profiles of malaria infection, anaemia, and bednet use among age groups and communities in northern Ghana.

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Koram, Kwadwo A; Owusu-Agyei, Seth; Fryauff, David J; Anto, Francis; Atuguba, Frank; Hodgson, Abraham; Hoffman, Stephen L; Nkrumah, Francis K

2003-09-01

We conducted all-age point prevalence surveys to profile the severity and seasonality of malaria and anaemia in Kassena-Nankana District of northern Ghana. Random cross-sectional surveys were timed to coincide with the end of low (May 2001) and high (November 2001) malaria transmission seasons and to yield information as to the potential value of haemoglobin (Hb) levels and parasitaemia as markers of malaria morbidity and/or malaria vaccine effect. Parasitaemia was found in 22% (515 of 2286) screened in May (dry-low transmission), and in 61% of the general population (1026 of 1676) screened in November (wet-high transmission). Malaria prevalence in May ranged from 4% (infants <6 months and adults 50-60 years) to 54% (children 5-10 years). Age-specific malaria prevalence in November ranged from 38% (adults 50-60 years) to 82% (children 5-10 years). Differences between low- and high-transmission periods in the prevalence of severe anaemia (SA) among young children (6-24 months) were unexpectedly comparable (low, 3.9%vs. high, 5.4%; P = 0.52) and greatly reduced from levels measured in this same community and age group in November 2000 (12.5%) and November 1996 (22.0%). Despite the lower frequency of anaemia/SA in young children surveyed in 2001, it was still clear that this condition was strongly associated with parasitaemia and that children under 5 years of age experienced a significant drop in their mean Hb levels by the end of the high transmission season. Prevalence of parasitaemia was significantly lower (P < 0.01) among infants and young children (<2 years) whose parents reported the use of bednets. There was a significantly lower risk of parasitaemia among infants [odds ratio (OR) 6-8] and young children (OR 3-4) living in the central, more urbanized sector of the study area.

Large-scale entomologic assessment of Onchocerca volvulus transmission by poolscreen PCR in Mexico.

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Rodríguez-Pérez, Mario A; Katholi, Charles R; Hassan, Hassan K; Unnasch, Thomas R

2006-06-01

To study the impact of mass Mectizan treatment on Onchocerca volvulus transmission in Mexico, entomological surveys were carried out in the endemic foci of Oaxaca, Southern Chiapas, and Northern Chiapas. Collected flies were screened by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for O. volvulus parasites. The prevalence of infected and infective flies was estimated using the PoolScreen algorithm and with a novel probability-based method. O. volvulus infective larvae were not detected in flies from 6/13 communities. In 7/13 communities, infective flies were detected, with prevalences ranging from 1.6/10,000 to 29.0/10,000 and seasonal transmission potentials ranging from 0.4 to 3.3. Infected and infective flies were found in a community in Northern Chiapas, suggesting that, according to World Health Organization criteria, autochthonous transmission exists in this focus. These data suggest that O. volvulus transmission in Mexico has been suppressed or brought to a level that may be insufficient to sustain the parasite population.

Additional burden of asymptomatic and sub-patent malaria infections during low transmission season in forested tribal villages in Chhattisgarh, India.

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Chourasia, Mehul Kumar; Raghavendra, Kamaraju; Bhatt, Rajendra M; Swain, Dipak Kumar; Meshram, Hemraj M; Meshram, Jayant K; Suman, Shrity; Dubey, Vinita; Singh, Gyanendra; Prasad, Kona Madhavinadha; Kleinschmidt, Immo

2017-08-08

The burden of sub-patent malaria is difficult to recognize in low endemic areas due to limitation of diagnostic tools, and techniques. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR), a molecular based technique, is one of the key methods for detection of low parasite density infections. The study objective was to assess the additional burden of asymptomatic and sub-patent malaria infection among tribal populations inhabiting three endemic villages in Keshkal sub-district, Chhattisgarh, India. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in March-June 2016, during the low transmission season, to measure and compare prevalence of malaria infection using three diagnostics: rapid diagnostic test, microscopy and nested-PCR. Out of 437 individuals enrolled in the study, 103 (23.6%) were malaria positive by PCR and/or microscopy of whom 89.3% were Plasmodium falciparum cases, 77.7% were afebrile and 35.9% had sub-patent infections. A substantial number of asymptomatic and sub-patent malaria infections were identified in the survey. Hence, strategies for identifying and reducing the hidden burden of asymptomatic and sub-patent infections should focus on forest rural tribal areas using more sensitive molecular diagnostic methods to curtail malaria transmission.

Potential for reduction of burden and local elimination of malaria by reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission: a mathematical modelling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffin, Jamie T; Bhatt, Samir; Sinka, Marianne E; Gething, Peter W; Lynch, Michael; Patouillard, Edith; Shutes, Erin; Newman, Robert D; Alonso, Pedro; Cibulskis, Richard E; Ghani, Azra C

2016-04-01

Rapid declines in malaria prevalence, cases, and deaths have been achieved globally during the past 15 years because of improved access to first-line treatment and vector control. We aimed to assess the intervention coverage needed to achieve further gains over the next 15 years. We used a mathematical model of the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria to explore the potential effect on case incidence and malaria mortality rates from 2015 to 2030 of five different intervention scenarios: remaining at the intervention coverage levels of 2011-13 (Sustain), for which coverage comprises vector control and access to treatment; two scenarios of increased coverage to 80% (Accelerate 1) and 90% (Accelerate 2), with a switch from quinine to injectable artesunate for management of severe disease and seasonal malaria chemoprevention where recommended for both Accelerate scenarios, and rectal artesunate for pre-referral treatment at the community level added to Accelerate 2; a near-term innovation scenario (Innovate), which included longer-lasting insecticidal nets and expansion of seasonal malaria chemoprevention; and a reduction in coverage to 2006-08 levels (Reverse). We did the model simulations at the first administrative level (ie, state or province) for the 80 countries with sustained stable malaria transmission in 2010, accounting for variations in baseline endemicity, seasonality in transmission, vector species, and existing intervention coverage. To calculate the cases and deaths averted, we compared the total number of each under the five scenarios between 2015 and 2030 with the predicted number in 2015, accounting for population growth. With an increase to 80% coverage, we predicted a reduction in case incidence of 21% (95% credible intervals [CrI] 19-29) and a reduction in mortality rates of 40% (27-61) by 2030 compared with 2015 levels. Acceleration to 90% coverage and expansion of treatment at the community level was predicted to reduce case incidence by

Transmission and reflection in a double potential well: doing it the Bohmian way

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stomphorst, R.G.

2002-01-01

The Bohm interpretation of quantum mechanics is applied to a transmission and reflection process in a double potential well. We consider a time-dependent periodic wave function and study the particle trajectories. The average time, eventually transmitted particles stay inside the barrier is the

Evaluation of the zoonotic potential of transmissible mink encephalopathy

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Successful transmission of Transmissible Mink Encephalopathy (TME) to cattle supports the bovine hypothesis to the still controversial origin of TME outbreaks. Human and primate susceptibility to classical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (c-BSE) and the transmissibility of L-type BSE to macaques as...

Seasonal and demographic factors influencing gastrointestinal parasitism in ungulates of Etosha National Park.

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Wendy C; Getz, Wayne M

2010-10-01

Host-parasite dynamics can be strongly affected by seasonality and age-related host immune responses. We investigated how observed variation in the prevalence and intensity of parasite egg or oocyst shedding in four co-occurring ungulate species may reflect underlying seasonal variation in transmission and host immunity. This study was conducted July 2005-October 2006 in Etosha National Park, Namibia, using indices of parasitism recorded from 1,022 fecal samples collected from plains zebra (Equus quagga), springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis), blue wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus), and gemsbok (Oryx gazella). The presence and intensity of strongyle nematodes, Strongyloides spp. and Eimeria spp. parasites, were strongly seasonal for most host-parasite combinations, with more hosts infected in the wet season than the dry season. Strongyle intensity in zebra was significantly lower in juveniles than adults, and in springbok hosts, Eimeria spp. intensity was significantly greater in juveniles than adults. These results provide evidence that acquired immunity is less protective against strongyle nematodes than Eimeria spp. infections. The seasonal patterns in parasitism further indicate that the long dry season may limit development and survival of parasite stages in the environment and, as a result, host contact and parasite transmission.

Seasonal variation in the prevalence of sand flies infected with Leishmania donovani.

Science.gov (United States)

Tiwary, Puja; Kumar, Dinesh; Mishra, Mukesh; Singh, Rudra Pratap; Rai, Madhukar; Sundar, Shyam

2013-01-01

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a life threatening neglected infectious disease in the Indian subcontinent, transmitted by the bite of female sand flies. Estimation of the infectivity in the vector population, collected in different seasons, may be useful to better understanding the transmission dynamics of VL as well as to plan vector control measures. We collected sand flies from highly endemic regions of Bihar state, India for one year over three seasons. The species of the sand flies were confirmed by species-specific PCR-RFLP. Leishmania donovani infection was investigated in 1397 female Phlebotomus argentipes using PCR, targeting the Leishmania specific minicircle of the kDNA region. Further, the parasitic load in the infected sand flies was measured using quantitative PCR. Though sand flies were most abundant in the rainy season, the highest rate of infection was detected in the winter season with 2.84% sand flies infected followed by the summer and rainy seasons respectively. This study can help in vector elimination programmes and to reduce disease transmission.

Unraveling the Transmission Ecology of Polio.

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez-Bakker, Micaela; King, Aaron A; Rohani, Pejman

2015-06-01

Sustained and coordinated vaccination efforts have brought polio eradication within reach. Anticipating the eradication of wild poliovirus (WPV) and the subsequent challenges in preventing its re-emergence, we look to the past to identify why polio rose to epidemic levels in the mid-20th century, and how WPV persisted over large geographic scales. We analyzed an extensive epidemiological dataset, spanning the 1930s to the 1950s and spatially replicated across each state in the United States, to glean insight into the drivers of polio's historical expansion and the ecological mode of its persistence prior to vaccine introduction. We document a latitudinal gradient in polio's seasonality. Additionally, we fitted and validated mechanistic transmission models to data from each US state independently. The fitted models revealed that: (1) polio persistence was the product of a dynamic mosaic of source and sink populations; (2) geographic heterogeneity of seasonal transmission conditions account for the latitudinal structure of polio epidemics; (3) contrary to the prevailing "disease of development" hypothesis, our analyses demonstrate that polio's historical expansion was straightforwardly explained by demographic trends rather than improvements in sanitation and hygiene; and (4) the absence of clinical disease is not a reliable indicator of polio transmission, because widespread polio transmission was likely in the multiyear absence of clinical disease. As the world edges closer to global polio eradication and continues the strategic withdrawal of the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV), the regular identification of, and rapid response to, these silent chains of transmission is of the utmost importance.

Chronic Wasting Disease: Transmission Mechanisms and the Possibility of Harvest Management

Science.gov (United States)

Potapov, Alex; Merrill, Evelyn; Pybus, Margo; Lewis, Mark A.

2016-01-01

We develop a model of CWD management by nonselective deer harvest, currently the most feasible approach available for managing CWD in wild populations. We use the model to explore the effects of 6 common harvest strategies on disease prevalence and to identify potential optimal harvest policies for reducing disease prevalence without population collapse. The model includes 4 deer categories (juveniles, adult females, younger adult males, older adult males) that may be harvested at different rates, a food-based carrying capacity, which influences juvenile survival but not adult reproduction or survival, and seasonal force of infection terms for each deer category under differing frequency-dependent transmission dynamics resulting from environmental and direct contact mechanisms. Numerical experiments show that the interval of transmission coefficients β where the disease can be controlled is generally narrow and efficiency of a harvest policy to reduce disease prevalence depends crucially on the details of the disease transmission mechanism, in particular on the intensity of disease transmission to juveniles and the potential differences in the behavior of older and younger males that influence contact rates. Optimal harvest policy to minimize disease prevalence for each of the assumed transmission mechanisms is shown to depend on harvest intensity. Across mechanisms, a harvest that focuses on antlered deer, without distinguishing between age classes reduces disease prevalence most consistently, whereas distinguishing between young and older antlered deer produces higher uncertainty in the harvest effects on disease prevalence. Our results show that, despite uncertainties, a modelling approach can determine classes of harvest strategy that are most likely to be effective in combatting CWD. PMID:26963921

Interruption of Onchocerca volvulus transmission in Northern Venezuela.

Science.gov (United States)

Convit, Jacinto; Schuler, Harland; Borges, Rafael; Olivero, Vimerca; Domínguez-Vázquez, Alfredo; Frontado, Hortencia; Grillet, María E

2013-10-07

Onchocerciasis is caused by Onchocerca volvulus and transmitted by Simulium species (black flies). In the Americas, the infection has been previously described in 13 discrete regional foci distributed among six countries (Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico and Venezuela) where more than 370,000 people are currently considered at risk. Since 2001, disease control in Venezuela has relied on the mass drug administration to the at-risk communities. This report provides empirical evidence of interruption of Onchocerca volvulus transmission by Simulium metallicum in 510 endemic communities from two Northern foci of Venezuela, after 10-12 years of 6-monthly Mectizan (ivermectin) treatment to all the eligible residents. In-depth entomologic and epidemiologic surveys were serially conducted from 2001-2012 in selected (sentinel and extra-sentinel) communities from the North-central (NC) and North-east (NE) onchocerciasis foci of Venezuela in order to monitor the impact of ivermectin treatment. From 2007-2009, entomological indicators in both foci confirmed that 0 out of 112,637 S. metallicum females examined by PCR contained L3 infection in insect heads. The upper bound of the 95% confidence intervals of the infective rate of the vector reached values below 1% by 2009 (NC) and 2012 (NE). Additionally, after 14 (NC) and 22 (NE) rounds of treatment, the seasonal transmission potential (±UL CIs) of S. metallicum was under the critical threshold of 20 L3 per person per season. Serological analysis in school children Venezuela.

Preliminary investigation of Culicidae species in South Pantanal, Brazil and their potential importance in arbovirus transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Pauvolid-Corrêa, Alex; Tavares, Fernando Neto; Alencar, Jeronimo; Silva, Julia dos Santos; Murta, Michele; Serra-Freire, Nicolau Maués; Pellegrin, Aiesca Oliveira; Gil-Santana, Hélcio; Guimarães, Anthony Erico; Silva, Edson Elias da

2010-01-01

In view of the high circulation of migratory birds and the environmental and climatic conditions which favor the proliferation of arthropods, the Brazilian Pantanal is susceptible to circulation of arboviruses. However, the amount of data concerning arbovirus vectors in this area is scarce; therefore the aim of this study was to conduct a preliminary investigation of Culicidae species in the Nhecolândia Sub-region of South Pantanal, Brazil and their potential importance in the arbovirus transmission. A total of 3684 specimens of mosquitoes were captured, 1689 of which caught in the rainy season of 2007, were divided into 78 pools and submitted to viral isolation, Semi-Nested RT-PCR and Nested RT-PCR, with a view to identifying the most important arboviruses in Brazil. Simultaneously, 70 specimens of ticks found blood-feeding on horses were also submitted to the same virological assays. No virus was isolated and viral nucleic-acid detection by RT-PCR was also negative. Nevertheless, a total of 22 Culicidae species were identified, ten of which had previously been reported as vectors of important arboviruses. The diversity of species found blood-feeding on human and horse hosts together with the arboviruses circulation previously reported suggest that the Nhecolândia Sub-region of South Pantanal is an important area for arbovirus surveillance in Brazil.

Malaria prevalence defined by microscopy, antigen detection, DNA amplification and total nucleic acid amplification in a malaria-endemic region during the peak malaria transmission season.

Science.gov (United States)

Waitumbi, John N; Gerlach, Jay; Afonina, Irina; Anyona, Samuel B; Koros, Joseph N; Siangla, Joram; Ankoudinova, Irina; Singhal, Mitra; Watts, Kate; Polhemus, Mark E; Vermeulen, Nicolaas M; Mahoney, Walt; Steele, Matt; Domingo, Gonzalo J

2011-07-01

To determine the malaria prevalence by microscopy, antigen detection and nucleic acid detection in a defined subpopulation in a Plasmodium falciparum-endemic region during the peak transmission season. Blood specimens were collected in a cross-sectional study involving children aged 5-10 years (n = 195) presenting with acute fever to two clinics in Western Kenya. All specimens underwent microscopy, HRP2 and aldolase antigen detection by enzyme immunoassay (EIA), parasite-specific DNA and total nucleic acid (RNA and DNA) by real-time PCR (qPCR) and reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR). Microscopy detected 65/195 cases of malaria infection [95% confidence interval (CI) 52-78]. HRP2 and aldolase EIA had similar sensitivity levels detecting antigen in 65/195 (95% CI, 52-78) and 57/195 (95% CI, 45-70) cases. Discordants in antigen detection vs. microscopy occurred at Detection of total nucleic acid allowed a 3 log lower limit of detection than just DNA detection by real-time PCR in vitro. In clinical specimens, 114/195 (95% CI, 100-127) were qPCR positive (DNA), and 187/195 (95% CI, 179-191) were qRT-PCR positive (DNA plus RNA). The prevalence of submicroscopic malaria infection was significantly higher when detecting total nucleic acid than just DNA in this outpatient population during the high transmission season. Defining standards for submicroscopic infection will be important for control programmes, diagnostics development efforts and molecular epidemiology studies. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Comparative population structure of Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium falciparum under different transmission settings in Malawi

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Molyneux Malcolm E

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Described here is the first population genetic study of Plasmodium malariae, the causative agent of quartan malaria. Although not as deadly as Plasmodium falciparum, P. malariae is more common than previously thought, and is frequently in sympatry and co-infection with P. falciparum, making its study increasingly important. This study compares the population parameters of the two species in two districts of Malawi with different malaria transmission patterns - one seasonal, one perennial - to explore the effects of transmission on population structures. Methods Six species-specific microsatellite markers were used to analyse 257 P. malariae samples and 257 P. falciparum samples matched for age, gender and village of residence. Allele sizes were scored to within 2 bp for each locus and haplotypes were constructed from dominant alleles in multiple infections. Analysis of multiplicity of infection (MOI, population differentiation, clustering of haplotypes and linkage disequilibrium was performed for both species. Regression analyses were used to determine association of MOI measurements with clinical malaria parameters. Results Multiple-genotype infections within each species were common in both districts, accounting for 86.0% of P. falciparum and 73.2% of P. malariae infections and did not differ significantly with transmission setting. Mean MOI of P. falciparum was increased under perennial transmission compared with seasonal (3.14 vs 2.59, p = 0.008 and was greater in children compared with adults. In contrast, P. malariae mean MOI was similar between transmission settings (2.12 vs 2.11 and there was no difference between children and adults. Population differentiation showed no significant differences between villages or districts for either species. There was no evidence of geographical clustering of haplotypes. Linkage disequilibrium amongst loci was found only for P. falciparum samples from the seasonal transmission

High NDVI and Potential Canopy Photosynthesis of South American Subtropical Forests despite Seasonal Changes in Leaf Area Index and Air Temperature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piedad M. Cristiano

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The canopy photosynthesis and carbon balance of the subtropical forests are not well studied compared to temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. The main objective of this study was to assess the seasonal dynamics of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and potential canopy photosynthesis in relation to seasonal changes in leaf area index (LAI, chlorophyll concentration, and air temperatures of NE Argentina subtropical forests throughout the year. We included in the analysis several tree plantations (Pinus, Eucalyptus and Araucaria species that are known to have high productivity. Field studies in native forests and tree plantations were conducted; stem growth rates, LAI and leaf chlorophyll concentration were measured. MODIS satellite-derived LAI (1 km SIN Grid and NDVI (250m SIN Grid from February 2000 to 2012 were used as a proxy of seasonal dynamics of potential photosynthetic activity at the stand level. The remote sensing LAI of the subtropical forests decreased every year from 6 to 5 during the cold season, similar to field LAI measurements, when temperatures were 10 °C lower than during the summer. The yearly maximum NDVI values were observed during a few months in autumn and spring (March through May and November, respectively because high and low air temperatures may have a small detrimental effect on photosynthetic activity during both the warm and the cold seasons. Leaf chlorophyll concentration was higher during the cold season than the warm season which may have a compensatory effect on the seasonal variation of the NDVI values. The NDVI of the subtropical forest stands remained high and fairly constant throughout the year (the intra-annual coefficient of variation was 1.9%, and were comparable to the values of high-yield tree plantations. These results suggest that the humid subtropical forests in NE Argentina potentially could maintain high canopy photosynthetic activity throughout the year and thus this ecosystem may

Seasonality of absolute humidity explains seasonality of influenza-like illness in Vietnam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pham Quang Thai

2015-12-01

Conclusions: Our results identify a role for AH in driving the epidemiology of ILI in a tropical setting. However, in contrast to temperate regions, high rather than low AH is associated with increased ILI activity. Fluctuation in AH may be the climate factor that underlies and unifies the seasonality of ILI in both temperate and tropical regions. Alternatively, the mechanism of action of AH on disease transmission may be different in cold-dry versus hot-humid settings.

Spatio-temporal transmission patterns of black-band disease in a coral community.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Assaf Zvuloni

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Transmission mechanisms of black-band disease (BBD in coral reefs are poorly understood, although this disease is considered to be one of the most widespread and destructive coral infectious diseases. The major objective of this study was to assess transmission mechanisms of BBD in the field based on the spatio-temporal patterns of the disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 3,175 susceptible and infected corals were mapped over an area of 10x10 m in Eilat (northern Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea and the distribution of the disease was examined monthly throughout almost two full disease cycles (June 2006-December 2007. Spatial and spatio-temporal analyses were applied to infer the transmission pattern of the disease and to calculate key epidemiological parameters such as (basic reproduction number. We show that the prevalence of the disease is strongly associated with high water temperature. When water temperatures rise and disease prevalence increases, infected corals exhibit aggregated distributions on small spatial scales of up to 1.9 m. Additionally, newly-infected corals clearly appear in proximity to existing infected corals and in a few cases in direct contact with them. We also present and test a model of water-borne infection, indicating that the likelihood of a susceptible coral becoming infected is defined by its spatial location and by the relative spatial distribution of nearby infected corals found in the site. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide evidence that local transmission, but not necessarily by direct contact, is likely to be an important factor in the spread of the disease over the tested spatial scale. In the absence of potential disease vectors with limited mobility (e.g., snails, fireworms in the studied site, water-borne infection is likely to be a significant transmission mechanism of BBD. Our suggested model of water-borne transmission supports this hypothesis. The spatio-temporal analysis also points

Quantum Transmission Conditions for Diffusive Transport in Graphene with Steep Potentials

Science.gov (United States)

Barletti, Luigi; Negulescu, Claudia

2018-05-01

We present a formal derivation of a drift-diffusion model for stationary electron transport in graphene, in presence of sharp potential profiles, such as barriers and steps. Assuming the electric potential to have steep variations within a strip of vanishing width on a macroscopic scale, such strip is viewed as a quantum interface that couples the classical regions at its left and right sides. In the two classical regions, where the potential is assumed to be smooth, electron and hole transport is described in terms of semiclassical kinetic equations. The diffusive limit of the kinetic model is derived by means of a Hilbert expansion and a boundary layer analysis, and consists of drift-diffusion equations in the classical regions, coupled by quantum diffusive transmission conditions through the interface. The boundary layer analysis leads to the discussion of a four-fold Milne (half-space, half-range) transport problem.

Chemopreventive Potential of Powdered Red Wine Pomace Seasonings against Colorectal Cancer in HT-29 Cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Del Pino-García, Raquel; Rivero-Pérez, María D; González-SanJosé, María L; Ortega-Heras, Miriam; García Lomillo, Javier; Muñiz, Pilar

2017-01-11

This study evaluates the antiproliferative and antigenotoxic actions of powdered red wine pomace seasonings (Sk-S, seedless; W-S, whole; Sd-S, seeds). In vitro gastrointestinal digested and colonic fermented fractions of the seasonings were used as cell treatments. Phenolic acids from Sk-S showed the highest bioaccessibility in the small intestine, whereas polyphenols contained in Sd-S might be the most fermentable in the colon. Dietary fiber from Sk-S was the best substrate for short chain fatty acids production by gut microbiota. Colon cancerous (HT-29) cell viability was inhibited by 50% (IC 50 values) at treatment concentrations ranging from 845 (Sk-S) to 1085 (Sd-S) μg/mL prior digestion, but all digested fractions exhibited similar antiproliferative activities (mean IC 50 = 814 μg/mL). Oxidative DNA damage in cells was also attenuated by the treatments (200 μg/mL, 24 h preincubation), with all colonic fermented fractions displaying similar genoprotective action. These results suggest the potential of red wine pomace seasonings as chemopreventive agents in colorectal cancer.

Mapping clusters of chikungunya and dengue transmission in northern Tanzania using disease exposure and vector data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kajeguka, Debora C.; Kaaya, Robert D.; Desrochers, Rachelle

2017-01-01

, and all participants were geo-referenced to the household level using a global positioning system. Potential clusters of individual exposed to dengue and chikungunya virus, as well as clusters of Aedes mosquitoes in the wet and dry seasons were detected using SaTScan. All significant clusters (with p≤0.......05) were mapped using ArcGIS.  Results: A large, widely dispersed cluster of chikungunya exposed individuals was detected spanning Rundugai and parts of Magadini villages (RR = 2.58, p= 0.01), while no significant clustering was observed in the dry season. Spatial clusters of Aedes aegypti were detected...... and Aedes mosquitoes indicate on-going transmission of chikungunya virus in Hai district of northern Tanzania....

Determinants of Rotavirus Transmission: A Lag Nonlinear Time Series Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

van Gaalen, Rolina D; van de Kassteele, Jan; Hahné, Susan J M; Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia; Wallinga, Jacco

2017-07-01

Rotavirus is a common viral infection among young children. As in many countries, the infection dynamics of rotavirus in the Netherlands are characterized by an annual winter peak, which was notably low in 2014. Previous study suggested an association between weather factors and both rotavirus transmission and incidence. From epidemic theory, we know that the proportion of susceptible individuals can affect disease transmission. We investigated how these factors are associated with rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands, and their impact on rotavirus transmission in 2014. We used available data on birth rates and rotavirus laboratory reports to estimate rotavirus transmission and the proportion of individuals susceptible to primary infection. Weather data were directly available from a central meteorological station. We developed an approach for detecting determinants of seasonal rotavirus transmission by assessing nonlinear, delayed associations between each factor and rotavirus transmission. We explored relationships by applying a distributed lag nonlinear regression model with seasonal terms. We corrected for residual serial correlation using autoregressive moving average errors. We inferred the relationship between different factors and the effective reproduction number from the most parsimonious model with low residual autocorrelation. Higher proportions of susceptible individuals and lower temperatures were associated with increases in rotavirus transmission. For 2014, our findings suggest that relatively mild temperatures combined with the low proportion of susceptible individuals contributed to lower rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands. However, our model, which overestimated the magnitude of the peak, suggested that other factors were likely instrumental in reducing the incidence that year.

Transmission potential, skin inflammatory response, and parasitism of symptomatic and asymptomatic dogs with visceral leishmaniasis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Goto H

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil is caused by the protozoan Leishmania (Leishmania chagasi and it is transmitted by sandfly of the genus Lutzomyia. Dogs are an important domestic reservoir, and control of the transmission of visceral leishmaniasis (VL to humans includes the elimination of infected dogs. However, though dogs are considered to be an important element in the transmission cycle of Leishmania, the identification of infected dogs representing an immediate risk for transmission has not been properly evaluated. Since it is not possible to treat infected dogs, they are sacrificed when a diagnosis of VL is established, a measure that is difficult to accomplish in highly endemic areas. In such areas, parameters that allow for easy identification of reservoirs that represents an immediate risk for transmission is of great importance for the control of VL transmission. In this study we aimed to identify clinical parameters, reinforced by pathological parameters that characterize dogs with potential to transmit the parasite to the vector. Results The major clinical manifestations of visceral leishmaniasis in dogs from an endemic area were onicogriphosis, skin lesions, conjunctivitis, lymphadenopathy, and weight loss. The transmission potential of these dogs was assessed by xenodiagnosis using Lutzomyia longipalpis. Six of nine symptomatic dogs were infective to Lutzomyia longipalpis while none of the five asymptomatic dogs were infective to the sandfly. Leishmania amastigotes were present in the skin of all clinically symptomatic dogs, but absent in asymptomatic dogs. Higher parasite loads were observed in the ear and ungueal region, and lower in abdomen. The inflammatory infiltrate was more intense in the ears and ungueal regions of both symptomatic and asymptomatic dogs. In clinically affected dogs in which few or none Leishmania amastigotes were observed, the inflammatory infiltrate was constituted mainly of lymphocytes

Seasonal and interseasonal dynamics of bluetongue virus infection of dairy cattle and Culicoides sonorensis midges in northern California--implications for virus overwintering in temperate zones.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christie E Mayo

Full Text Available Bluetongue virus (BTV is the cause of an economically important arboviral disease of domestic and wild ruminants. The occurrence of BTV infection of livestock is distinctly seasonal in temperate regions of the world, thus we determined the dynamics of BTV infection (using BTV-specific real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction among sentinel cattle and vector Culicoides sonorensis (C. sonorensis midges on a dairy farm in northern California throughout both the seasonal and interseasonal (overwintering periods of BTV activity from August 2012 until March 2014. The data confirmed widespread infection of both sentinel cattle and vector midges during the August-November period of seasonal BTV transmission, however BTV infection of parous female midges captured in traps set during daylight hours also was detected in February of both 2013 and 2014, during the interseasonal period. The finding of BTV-infected vector midges during mid-winter suggests that BTV may overwinter in northern California by infection of long-lived female C. sonorensis midges that were infected during the prior seasonal period of virus transmission, and reemerged sporadically during the overwintering period; however the data do not definitively preclude other potential mechanisms of BTV overwintering that are also discussed.

Literature Survey on Operational Voltage Control and Reactive Power Management on Transmission and Sub-Transmission Networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Holzer, Jesse T.; Vallem, Mallikarjuna R.; Huang, Renke; Vyakaranam, Bharat GNVSR; Ke, Xinda; Pan, Feng

2017-10-02

Voltage and reactive power system control is generally performed following usual patterns of loads, based on off-line studies for daily and seasonal operations. This practice is currently challenged by the inclusion of distributed renewable generation, such as solar. There has been focus on resolving this problem at the distribution level; however, the transmission and sub-transmission levels have received less attention. This paper provides a literature review of proposed methods and solution approaches to coordinate and optimize voltage control and reactive power management, with an emphasis on applications at transmission and sub-transmission level. The conclusion drawn from the survey is that additional research is needed in the areas of optimizing switch shunt actions and coordinating all available resources to deal with uncertain patterns from increasing distributed renewable generation in the operational time frame. These topics are not deeply explored in the literature.

Self-propagative replication of Aβ oligomers suggests potential transmissibility in Alzheimer disease.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amit Kumar

Full Text Available The aggregation of amyloid-β (Aβ peptide and its deposition in parts of the brain form the central processes in the etiology of Alzheimer disease (AD. The low-molecular weight oligomers of Aβ aggregates (2 to 30 mers are known to be the primary neurotoxic agents whose mechanisms of cellular toxicity and synaptic dysfunction have received substantial attention in the recent years. However, how these toxic agents proliferate and induce widespread amyloid deposition throughout the brain, and what mechanism is involved in the amplification and propagation of toxic oligomer species, are far from clear. Emerging evidence based on transgenic mice models indicates a transmissible nature of Aβ aggregates and implicates a prion-like mechanism of oligomer propagation, which manifests as the dissemination and proliferation of Aβ toxicity. Despite accumulating evidence in support of a transmissible nature of Aβ aggregates, a clear, molecular-level understanding of this intriguing mechanism is lacking. Recently, we reported the characterization of unique replicating oligomers of Aβ42 (12-24 mers in vitro called Large Fatty Acid-derived Oligomers (LFAOs (Kumar et al., 2012, J. Biol. Chem. In the current report, we establish that LFAOs possess physiological activity by activating NF-κB in human neuroblastoma cells, and determine the experimental parameters that control the efficiency of LFAO replication by self-propagation. These findings constitute the first detailed report on monomer - oligomer lateral propagation reactions that may constitute potential mechanism governing transmissibility among Aβ oligomers. These data support the previous reports on transmissible mechanisms observed in transgenic animal models.

Potential damages, seasonal abundance and distribution of Empoasca terminalis Distant (Homoptera: Cicadellidae on soybean in South Sulawesi

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andi Nasruddin

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Plant damages caused by leafhopper, Empoasca terminalis Distant (Homoptera: Cicadellidae on soybean were first encountered in 2007 in Makassar, South Sulawesi. The insect has been constantly associated with soybean crops in the province ever since. The purposes of the present study were to (i evaluate potential yield loss attributable to the leafhopper in an experimental set up, (ii seasonal abundance of E. terminalis, and (iii distribution of E. terminalis in all major soybean-producing areas in the province. Potential yield loss due to the leafhopper was assessed in a field experiment using two large plots. One of the plots was kept leafhopper-free by weekly insecticide sprays; and the other plot was left unsprayed to allow leafhopper infestation to occur. Adult abundance was weekly monitored using a sweep net throughout the season. Nymph abundance was determined by direct count on the plant leaves. Leafhopper distribution was assessed through surveys conducted in all major soybean-producing areas in South Sulawesi, from 2009–2013. The results of the study showed that E. terminalis caused an average yield loss of 26% on susceptible crops without insecticide use. First leafhopper infestation in all planting seasons occurred two weeks after the plant emergence. Rainfall negatively correlated with the leafhopper abundance. The leafhopper existed in all major soybean production areas in the province. Therefore, our results confirmed the status of E. terminalis as an important soybean pest in the region. In addition, crops planted early in the dry season could escape from heavy leafhopper infestation.

Climate services for health: predicting the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in Machala, Ecuador.

Science.gov (United States)

Lowe, Rachel; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Petrova, Desislava; García-Díez, Markel; Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J; Mejía, Raúl; Regato, Mary; Rodó, Xavier

2017-07-01

El Niño and its effect on local meteorological conditions potentially influences interannual variability in dengue transmission in southern coastal Ecuador. El Oro province is a key dengue surveillance site, due to the high burden of dengue, seasonal transmission, co-circulation of all four dengue serotypes, and the recent introduction of chikungunya and Zika. In this study, we used climate forecasts to predict the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in the city of Machala, following one of the strongest El Niño events on record. We incorporated precipitation, minimum temperature, and Niño3·4 index forecasts in a Bayesian hierarchical mixed model to predict dengue incidence. The model was initiated on Jan 1, 2016, producing monthly dengue forecasts until November, 2016. We accounted for misreporting of dengue due to the introduction of chikungunya in 2015, by using active surveillance data to correct reported dengue case data from passive surveillance records. We then evaluated the forecast retrospectively with available epidemiological information. The predictions correctly forecast an early peak in dengue incidence in March, 2016, with a 90% chance of exceeding the mean dengue incidence for the previous 5 years. Accounting for the proportion of chikungunya cases that had been incorrectly recorded as dengue in 2015 improved the prediction of the magnitude of dengue incidence in 2016. This dengue prediction framework, which uses seasonal climate and El Niño forecasts, allows a prediction to be made at the start of the year for the entire dengue season. Combining active surveillance data with routine dengue reports improved not only model fit and performance, but also the accuracy of benchmark estimates based on historical seasonal averages. This study advances the state-of-the-art of climate services for the health sector, by showing the potential value of incorporating climate information in the public health decision-making process in Ecuador. European Union

Diverse host feeding on nesting birds may limit early-season West Nile virus amplification.

Science.gov (United States)

Egizi, Andrea M; Farajollahi, Ary; Fonseca, Dina M

2014-06-01

Arboviral activity tracks vector availability, which in temperate regions means that transmission ceases during the winter and must be restarted each spring. In the northeastern United States, Culex restuans Theobald resumes its activity earlier than Culex pipiens L. and is thought to be important in restarting West Nile virus (WNV) transmission. Its role in WNV amplification, however, is unclear, because viral levels commonly remain low until the rise of Cx. pipiens later in the season. Because a vector's feeding habits can reveal key information about disease transmission, we identified early-season (April-June) blood meals from Cx. restuans collected throughout New Jersey, and compared them to published datasets from later in the season and also from other parts of the country. We found significantly higher avian diversity, including poor WNV hosts, and fewer blood meals derived from American Robins (17% versus over 40% found in later season). Critically, we identified blood meals from significantly more female than male birds in species where females are the incubating sex, suggesting that Cx. restuans is able to feed on such a wide variety of hosts in early spring because incubating birds are easy targets. Because WNV amplification depends on virus consistently reaching competent hosts, our results indicate that Cx. restuans is unlikely to be an amplifying vector of WNV in the early season. As the season progresses, however, changes in the availability of nesting birds may make it just as capable as Cx. pipiens, although at somewhat lower abundance as the summer progresses.

Transmission potential of Zika virus infection in the South Pacific.

Science.gov (United States)

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Kinoshita, Ryo; Mizumoto, Kenji; Yasuda, Yohei; Nah, Kyeongah

2016-04-01

Zika virus has spread internationally through countries in the South Pacific and Americas. The present study aimed to estimate the basic reproduction number, R0, of Zika virus infection as a measurement of the transmission potential, reanalyzing past epidemic data from the South Pacific. Incidence data from two epidemics, one on Yap Island, Federal State of Micronesia in 2007 and the other in French Polynesia in 2013-2014, were reanalyzed. R0 of Zika virus infection was estimated from the early exponential growth rate of these two epidemics. The maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of R0 for the Yap Island epidemic was in the order of 4.3-5.8 with broad uncertainty bounds due to the small sample size of confirmed and probable cases. The MLE of R0 for French Polynesia based on syndromic data ranged from 1.8 to 2.0 with narrow uncertainty bounds. The transmissibility of Zika virus infection appears to be comparable to those of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Considering that Aedes species are a shared vector, this finding indicates that Zika virus replication within the vector is perhaps comparable to dengue and chikungunya. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Force transmissibility versus displacement transmissibility

Science.gov (United States)

Lage, Y. E.; Neves, M. M.; Maia, N. M. M.; Tcherniak, D.

2014-10-01

It is well-known that when a single-degree-of-freedom (sdof) system is excited by a continuous motion of the foundation, the force transmissibility, relating the force transmitted to the foundation to the applied force, equals the displacement transmissibility. Recent developments in the generalization of the transmissibility to multiple-degree-of-freedom (mdof) systems have shown that similar simple and direct relations between both types of transmissibility do not appear naturally from the definitions, as happens in the sdof case. In this paper, the authors present their studies on the conditions under which it is possible to establish a relation between force transmissibility and displacement transmissibility for mdof systems. As far as the authors are aware, such a relation is not currently found in the literature, which is justified by being based on recent developments in the transmissibility concept for mdof systems. Indeed, it does not appear naturally, but the authors observed that the needed link is present when the displacement transmissibility is obtained between the same coordinates where the applied and reaction forces are considered in the force transmissibility case; this implies that the boundary conditions are not exactly the same and instead follow some rules. This work presents a formal derivation of the explicit relation between the force and displacement transmissibilities for mdof systems, and discusses its potential and limitations. The authors show that it is possible to obtain the displacement transmissibility from measured forces, and the force transmissibility from measured displacements, opening new perspectives, for example, in the identification of applied or transmitted forces. With this novel relation, it becomes possible, for example, to estimate the force transmissibility matrix with the structure off its supports, in free boundary conditions, and without measuring the forces. As far as force identification is concerned, this

Transmission of Influenza B Viruses in the Guinea Pig

Science.gov (United States)

Pica, Natalie; Chou, Yi-Ying; Bouvier, Nicole M.

2012-01-01

Epidemic influenza is typically caused by infection with viruses of the A and B types and can result in substantial morbidity and mortality during a given season. Here we demonstrate that influenza B viruses can replicate in the upper respiratory tract of the guinea pig and that viruses of the two main lineages can be transmitted with 100% efficiency between inoculated and naïve animals in both contact and noncontact models. Our results also indicate that, like in the case for influenza A virus, transmission of influenza B viruses is enhanced at colder temperatures, providing an explanation for the seasonality of influenza epidemics in temperate climates. We therefore present, for the first time, a small animal model with which to study the underlying mechanisms of influenza B virus transmission. PMID:22301149

Global Seasonality of Rotavirus Disease

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Manish M.; Pitzer, Virginia; Alonso, Wladimir J.; Vera, David; Lopman, Ben; Tate, Jacqueline; Viboud, Cecile; Parashar, Umesh D.

2012-01-01

Background A substantial number of surveillance studies have documented rotavirus prevalence among children admitted for dehydrating diarrhea. We sought to establish global seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease before widespread vaccine introduction. Methods We reviewed studies of rotavirus detection in children with diarrhea published since 1995. We assessed potential relationships between seasonal prevalence and locality by plotting the average monthly proportion of diarrhea cases positive for rotavirus according to geography, country development, and latitude. We used linear regression to identify variables that were potentially associated with the seasonal intensity of rotavirus. Results Among a total of 99 studies representing all six geographical regions of the world, patterns of year-round disease were more evident in low- and low-middle income countries compared with upper-middle and high income countries where disease was more likely to be seasonal. The level of country development was a stronger predictor of strength of seasonality (P=0.001) than geographical location or climate. However, the observation of distinctly different seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease in some countries with similar geographical location, climate and level of development indicate that a single unifying explanation for variation in seasonality of rotavirus disease is unlikely. Conclusion While no unifying explanation emerged for varying rotavirus seasonality globally, the country income level was somewhat more predictive of the likelihood of having seasonal disease than other factors. Future evaluation of the effect of rotavirus vaccination on seasonal patterns of disease in different settings may help understand factors that drive the global seasonality of rotavirus disease. PMID:23190782

Electricity Transmission, Pipelines, and National Trails: An Analysis of Current and Potential Intersections on Federal Lands in the Eastern United States, Alaska, and Hawaii

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuiper, James A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Krummel, John R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Hlava, Kevin J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Moore, H. Robert [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Orr, Andrew B. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Schlueter, Scott O. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sullivan, Robert G. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zvolanek, Emily A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2016-11-21

As has been noted in many reports and publications, acquiring new or expanded rights-of-way for transmission is a challenging process, because numerous land use and land ownership constraints must be overcome to develop pathways suitable for energy transmission infrastructure. In the eastern U.S., more than twenty federally protected national trails (some of which are thousands of miles long, and cross many states) pose a potential obstacle to the development of new or expanded electricity transmission capacity. However, the scope of this potential problem is not well-documented, and there is no baseline information available that could allow all stakeholders to study routing scenarios that could mitigate impacts on national trails. This report, Electricity Transmission, Pipelines, and National Trails: An Analysis of Current and Potential Intersections on Federal Lands in the Eastern United States, was prepared by the Environmental Science Division of Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne). Argonne was tasked by DOE to analyze the “footprint” of the current network of National Historic and Scenic Trails and the electricity transmission system in the 37 eastern contiguous states, Alaska, and Hawaii; assess the extent to which national trails are affected by electrical transmission; and investigate the extent to which national trails and other sensitive land use types may be affected in the near future by planned transmission lines. Pipelines are secondary to transmission lines for analysis, but are also within the analysis scope in connection with the overall directives of Section 368 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, and because of the potential for electrical transmission lines being collocated with pipelines.

Transmission rights and market power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bushnell, J.

1999-01-01

Most of the concerns about physical transmission rights relate to the ability to implicitly or explicitly remove that transmission capacity from the market-place. Under a very strict form of physical right, owners could simply choose not to sell it if they don't want to use it. Modifications that require the release of spare capacity back into an open market could potentially alleviate this problem but there is concern that such releases would not occur far enough in advance to be of much use to schedulers. Similarly, the transmission capacity that is made available for use by non-rights holders can also be manipulated by the owners of transmission rights. The alternative form, financial transmission rights, provide to their owners congestion payments, but physical control of transmission paths. In electricity markets such as California's, even financial transmission rights could potentially be utilized to effectively withhold transmission capacity from the marketplace. However, methods for withholding transmission capacity are somewhat more convoluted, and probably more difficult, for owners of financial rights than for owners of physical rights. In this article, the author discusses some of the potential concerns over transmission rights and their use for the exercise of various forms of market power

Timing of floods in southeastern China: Seasonal properties and potential causes

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Luo, Ming

2017-09-01

Flood hazards and flood risks in southeastern China have been causing increasing concerns due to dense population and highly-developed economy. This study attempted to address changes of seasonality, timing of peak floods and variability of occurrence date of peak floods using circular statistical methods and the modified Mann-Kendall trend detection method. The causes of peak flood changes were also investigated. Results indicated that: (1) floods were subject to more seasonality and temporal clustering when compared to precipitation extremes. However, seasonality of floods and extreme precipitation was subject to spatial heterogeneity in northern Guangdong. Similar changing patterns of peak floods and extreme precipitation were found in coastal regions; (2) significant increasing/decreasing seasonality, but no confirmed spatial patterns, were observed for peak floods and extreme precipitation. Peak floods in northern Guangdong province had decreasing variability, but had larger variability in coastal regions; (3) tropical cyclones had remarkable impacts on extreme precipitation changes in coastal regions of southeastern China, and peak floods as well. The landfalling of tropical cyclones was decreasing and concentrated during June-September; this is the major reason for earlier but enhanced seasonality of peak floods in coastal regions. This study sheds new light on flood behavior in coastal regions in a changing environment.

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Science.gov (United States)

Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Prudhomme, Christel; Neumann, Jessica; Krzeminski, Blazej; Pappenberger, Florian

2018-04-01

This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate

Transfusion transmissible viral infections among potential blood ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

effective approach for prevention and control of transfusion-transmissible infections (TTIs). Also, it has been documented that sub-standard test kits are mostly used in resource limited settings for transfusion related diagnosis. However, the role of ...

Seasonal forecasting of synoptic type variability: potential intraseasonal predictability relevant to the Cape south coast of South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, CJ

2015-09-01

Full Text Available An ensemble of 12 sea-level pressure (SLP) simulations from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) Global Seasonal Forecast System 5 (GloSea5) is used to investigate the potential predictability of synoptic types within 14 austral spring...

[Seasonal variation of Tamarix ramosissima and Populus euphratica water potentials in southern fringe of Taklamakan Desert].

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Fanjiang; Zhang, Ximing; Li, Xiangyi; Foetzki, Andrea; Runge, Michael

2005-08-01

The measurement of the seasonal and diurnal variations of Tamarix ramosissima and Populus euphratica water potentials in the southern fringe of Taklamakan Desert indicated that there was no apparent water stress for the two species during their growth period, with little change of predawn water potential and some extent decrease of midday water potential. Irrigation once or thinning had no significant effects on the water status of the plants, while groundwater appeared to be a prerequisite for the survival and growth of these species. It is very important to ensure a stable groundwater table for the restoration of Tamarix ramosissima and Populus euphratica in this area.

Interruption of Onchocerca volvulus transmission in Northern Venezuela

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Onchocerciasis is caused by Onchocerca volvulus and transmitted by Simulium species (black flies). In the Americas, the infection has been previously described in 13 discrete regional foci distributed among six countries (Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico and Venezuela) where more than 370,000 people are currently considered at risk. Since 2001, disease control in Venezuela has relied on the mass drug administration to the at-risk communities. This report provides empirical evidence of interruption of Onchocerca volvulus transmission by Simulium metallicum in 510 endemic communities from two Northern foci of Venezuela, after 10–12 years of 6-monthly Mectizan® (ivermectin) treatment to all the eligible residents. Methods In-depth entomologic and epidemiologic surveys were serially conducted from 2001–2012 in selected (sentinel and extra-sentinel) communities from the North-central (NC) and North-east (NE) onchocerciasis foci of Venezuela in order to monitor the impact of ivermectin treatment. Results From 2007–2009, entomological indicators in both foci confirmed that 0 out of 112,637 S. metallicum females examined by PCR contained L3 infection in insect heads. The upper bound of the 95% confidence intervals of the infective rate of the vector reached values below 1% by 2009 (NC) and 2012 (NE). Additionally, after 14 (NC) and 22 (NE) rounds of treatment, the seasonal transmission potential (±UL CIs) of S. metallicum was under the critical threshold of 20 L3 per person per season. Serological analysis in school children < 15 years-old demonstrated that 0 out of 6,590 individuals were harboring antibodies to Ov-16. Finally, epidemiological surveys made during 2010 (NC) and 2012 (NE) showed no evidence of microfilariae in the skin and eyes of the population. Conclusions These results meet the WHO criteria for absence of parasite transmission and disease morbidity in these endemic areas which represent 91% of the population previously at

The reduction of measles transmission during school vacations.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klinkenberg, Don; Hahné, Susan Jm; Woudenberg, Tom; Wallinga, Jacco

2018-01-01

Historically, measles incidence has shown clear seasonal patterns driven by the school calendar, but since the start of mass vaccination in developed countries there are only occasional outbreaks, which may have changed the effect of school vacations on transmission. In 2013-2014 a large measles

Estimating the phenology of elk brucellosis transmission with hierarchical models of cause-specific and baseline hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, Paul C.; Maichak, Eric J.; Rogerson, Jared D.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Jones, Jennifer D; Heisey, Dennis M.; Edwards, William H.; Scurlock, Brandon M.

2015-01-01

Understanding the seasonal timing of disease transmission can lead to more effective control strategies, but the seasonality of transmission is often unknown for pathogens transmitted directly. We inserted vaginal implant transmitters (VITs) in 575 elk (Cervus elaphus canadensis) from 2006 to 2014 to assess when reproductive failures (i.e., abortions or still births) occur, which is the primary transmission route of Brucella abortus, the causative agent of brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using a survival analysis framework, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that simultaneously estimated the total baseline hazard of a reproductive event as well as its 2 mutually exclusive parts (abortions or live births). Approximately, 16% (95% CI = 0.10, 0.23) of the pregnant seropositive elk had reproductive failures, whereas 2% (95% CI = 0.01, 0.04) of the seronegative elk had probable abortions. Reproductive failures could have occurred as early as 13 February and as late as 10 July, peaking from March through May. Model results suggest that less than 5% of likely abortions occurred after 6 June each year and abortions were approximately 5 times more likely in March, April, or May compared to February or June. In western Wyoming, supplemental feeding of elk begins in December and ends during the peak of elk abortions and brucellosis transmission (i.e., Mar and Apr). Years with more snow may enhance elk-to-elk transmission on supplemental feeding areas because elk are artificially aggregated for the majority of the transmission season. Elk-to-cattle transmission will depend on the transmission period relative to the end of the supplemental feeding season, elk seroprevalence, population size, and the amount of commingling. Our statistical approach allowed us to estimate the probability density function of different event types over time, which may be applicable to other cause-specific survival analyses. It is often challenging to assess the

Control of somatic membrane potential in nociceptive neurons and its implications for peripheral nociceptive transmission

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Xiaona; Hao, Han; Gigout, Sylvain; Huang, Dongyang; Yang, Yuehui; Li, Li; Wang, Caixue; Sundt, Danielle; Jaffe, David B.; Zhang, Hailin; Gamper, Nikita

2014-01-01

Peripheral sensory ganglia contain somata of afferent fibres conveying somatosensory inputs to the central nervous system. Growing evidence suggests that the somatic/perisomatic region of sensory neurons can influence peripheral sensory transmission. Control of resting membrane potential (Erest) is an important mechanism regulating excitability, but surprisingly little is known about how Erest is regulated in sensory neuron somata or how changes in somatic/perisomatic Erest affect peripheral sensory transmission. We first evaluated the influence of several major ion channels on Erest in cultured small-diameter, mostly capsaicin-sensitive (presumed nociceptive) dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neurons. The strongest and most prevalent effect on Erest was achieved by modulating M channels, K2P and 4-aminopiridine-sensitive KV channels, while hyperpolarization-activated cyclic nucleotide-gated, voltage-gated Na+, and T-type Ca2+ channels to a lesser extent also contributed to Erest. Second, we investigated how varying somatic/perisomatic membrane potential, by manipulating ion channels of sensory neurons within the DRG, affected peripheral nociceptive transmission in vivo. Acute focal application of M or KATP channel enhancers or a hyperpolarization-activated cyclic nucleotide-gated channel blocker to L5 DRG in vivo significantly alleviated pain induced by hind paw injection of bradykinin. Finally, we show with computational modelling how somatic/perisomatic hyperpolarization, in concert with the low-pass filtering properties of the t-junction within the DRG, can interfere with action potential propagation. Our study deciphers a complement of ion channels that sets the somatic Erest of nociceptive neurons and provides strong evidence for a robust filtering role of the somatic and perisomatic compartments of peripheral nociceptive neuron. PMID:25168672

Optimizing malarial epidemiological studies in areas of low transmission

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amerasinghe, Priyanie H; Alifrangis, Michael; van der Hoek, Wim

2005-01-01

risk factor in this area was the location of houses relative to confirmed vector breeding sites. At the peak of the transmission season, the results pointed in the same direction, irrespective of the diagnostic method used. However, the importance of distance from the breeding site......Malaria risk factor studies have traditionally used microscopy readings of blood slides as the measure of malaria infection in humans, although alternatives are available. There is the need for an assessment of how the use of these alternative diagnostic approaches will influence the efficiency...... and significance of epidemiological studies. In an area of Sri Lanka with known risk factors for malaria, two cross-sectional surveys were done at the start and at the peak of transmission season. Microscopy was compared with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The major...

On the use and potential use of seasonal to decadal climate predictions for decision-making in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Soares, Marta Bruno; Dessai, Suraje

2014-05-01

The need for climate information to help inform decision-making in sectors susceptible to climate events and impacts is widely recognised. In Europe, developments in the science and models underpinning the study of climate variability and change have led to an increased interest in seasonal to decadal climate predictions (S2DCP). While seasonal climate forecasts are now routinely produced operationally by a number of centres around the world, decadal climate predictions are still in its infancy restricted to the realm of research. Contrary to other regions of the world, where the use of these types of forecasts, particularly at seasonal timescales, has been pursued in recent years due to higher levels of predictability, little is known about the uptake and climate information needs of end-users regarding S2DCP in Europe. To fill this gap we conducted in-depth interviews with experts and decision-makers across a range of European sectors, a workshop with European climate services providers, and a systematic literature review on the use of S2DCP in Europe. This study is part of the EUropean Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale (EUPORIAS) project which aims to develop semi-operational prototypes of impact prediction systems in Europe on seasonal to decadal timescales. We found that the emerging landscape of users and potential users of S2DCP in Europe is complex and heterogeneous. Differences in S2DCP information needs across and within organisations and sectors are largely underpinned by factors such as the institutional and regulatory context of the organisations, the plethora of activities and decision-making processes involved, the level of expertise and capacity of the users, and the availability of resources within the organisations. In addition, although the use of S2DCP across Europe is still fairly limited, particular sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, water, (re)insurance, and transport are taking the lead on

Modeling seasonal water balance based on catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, S.; Zhao, J.; Wang, H.

2017-12-01

This paper develops a seasonal water balance model based on the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality. According to the monthly aridity index, one year is split into wet season and dry season. A seasonal water balance model is developed by analogy to a two-stage reservoir operation model, in which seasonal rainfall infiltration, evapotranspiration and saturation-excess runoff is corresponding to the inflow, release and surplus of the catchment system. Then the optimal hedging between wet season and dry season evapotranspiration is analytically derived with marginal benefit principle. Water budget data sets of 320 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1980 to 2010 are used to evaluate the performance of this model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient for evapotranspiration is higher than 0.5 in 84% of the study catchments; while the runoff is 87%. This paper validates catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality and shows its potential application for seasonal water balance, which is valuable for water resources planning and management.

A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

Science.gov (United States)

Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-04-01

There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

Man biting rate seasonal variation of malaria vectors in Roraima, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fábio Saito Monteiro de Barros

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Malaria control has been directed towards regional actions where more detailed knowledge of local determinants of transmission is of primary importance. This is a short report on range distribution and biting indices for Anopheles darlingi and An. albitarsis during the dry and rainy season that follows river level variation in a savanna/alluvial forest malaria system area in the Northern Amazon Basin. Distribution range and adult biting indices were at their highest during the rainy season for both An. darlingi and An. albitarsis. During the rainy season the neighboring alluvial forest was extensively flooded. This coincided with highest rates in malaria transmission with case clustering near the river. As the river receded, anopheline distribution range and density decreased. This decrease in distribution and density corresponded to a malaria decrease in the near area. An exponential regression function was derived to permit estimations of An. darlingi distribution over specified distances. Anopheline spatio-temporal variations lead to uneven malaria case distribution and are of important implications for control strategies.

Absence of dry season Plasmodium parasitaemia, but high rates of reported acute respiratory infection and diarrhoea in preschool-aged children in Kaédi, southern Mauritania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Touray Sunkaru

2012-09-01

infections and diarrhea were highly prevalent. Surveys should be repeated towards the end of rainy season, which will enhance our understanding of the potential changes in malaria transmission in a region known as ‘hot spot’ of predicted climate change.

Absence of dry season Plasmodium parasitaemia, but high rates of reported acute respiratory infection and diarrhoea in preschool-aged children in Kaédi, southern Mauritania.

Science.gov (United States)

Touray, Sunkaru; Bâ, Hampâté; Bâ, Ousmane; Koïta, Mohamedou; Salem, Cheikh B Ould Ahmed; Keïta, Moussa; Traoré, Doulo; Sy, Ibrahima; Winkler, Mirko S; Utzinger, Jürg; Cissé, Guéladio

2012-09-07

towards the end of rainy season, which will enhance our understanding of the potential changes in malaria transmission in a region known as 'hot spot' of predicted climate change.

Remotely-sensed, nocturnal, dew point correlates with malaria transmission in Southern Province, Zambia: a time-series study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nygren, David; Stoyanov, Cristina; Lewold, Clemens; Månsson, Fredrik; Miller, John; Kamanga, Aniset; Shiff, Clive J

2014-06-13

Plasmodium falciparum transmission has decreased significantly in Zambia in the last decade. The malaria transmission is influenced by environmental variables. Incorporation of environmental variables in models of malaria transmission likely improves model fit and predicts probable trends in malaria disease. This work is based on the hypothesis that remotely-sensed environmental factors, including nocturnal dew point, are associated with malaria transmission and sustain foci of transmission during the low transmission season in the Southern Province of Zambia. Thirty-eight rural health centres in Southern Province, Zambia were divided into three zones based on transmission patterns. Correlations between weekly malaria cases and remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point, nocturnal land surface temperature as well as vegetation indices and rainfall were evaluated in time-series analyses from 2012 week 19 to 2013 week 36. Zonal as well as clinic-based, multivariate, autoregressive, integrated, moving average (ARIMAX) models implementing environmental variables were developed to model transmission in 2011 week 19 to 2012 week 18 and forecast transmission in 2013 week 37 to week 41. During the dry, low transmission season significantly higher vegetation indices, nocturnal land surface temperature and nocturnal dew point were associated with the areas of higher transmission. Environmental variables improved ARIMAX models. Dew point and normalized differentiated vegetation index were significant predictors and improved all zonal transmission models. In the high-transmission zone, this was also seen for land surface temperature. Clinic models were improved by adding dew point and land surface temperature as well as normalized differentiated vegetation index. The mean average error of prediction for ARIMAX models ranged from 0.7 to 33.5%. Forecasts of malaria incidence were valid for three out of five rural health centres; however, with poor results at the zonal level. In this

GloFAS-Seasonal: Operational Seasonal Ensemble River Flow Forecasts at the Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Seasonal hydrological forecasting has potential benefits for many sectors, including agriculture, water resources management and humanitarian aid. At present, no global scale seasonal hydrological forecasting system exists operationally; although smaller scale systems have begun to emerge around the globe over the past decade, a system providing consistent global scale seasonal forecasts would be of great benefit in regions where no other forecasting system exists, and to organisations operating at the global scale, such as disaster relief. We present here a new operational global ensemble seasonal hydrological forecast, currently under development at ECMWF as part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The proposed system, which builds upon the current version of GloFAS, takes the long-range forecasts from the ECMWF System4 ensemble seasonal forecast system (which incorporates the HTESSEL land surface scheme) and uses this runoff as input to the Lisflood routing model, producing a seasonal river flow forecast out to 4 months lead time, for the global river network. The seasonal forecasts will be evaluated using the global river discharge reanalysis, and observations where available, to determine the potential value of the forecasts across the globe. The seasonal forecasts will be presented as a new layer in the GloFAS interface, which will provide a global map of river catchments, indicating whether the catchment-averaged discharge forecast is showing abnormally high or low flows during the 4-month lead time. Each catchment will display the corresponding forecast as an ensemble hydrograph of the weekly-averaged discharge forecast out to 4 months, with percentile thresholds shown for comparison with the discharge climatology. The forecast visualisation is based on a combination of the current medium-range GloFAS forecasts and the operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal outlook, and aims to effectively communicate the nature of a seasonal

Fine-scale variation in microclimate across an urban landscape shapes variation in mosquito population dynamics and the potential of Aedes albopictus to transmit arboviral disease.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Courtney C Murdock

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Most statistical and mechanistic models used to predict mosquito-borne disease transmission incorporate climate drivers of disease transmission by utilizing environmental data collected at geographic scales that are potentially coarser than what mosquito populations may actually experience. Temperature and relative humidity can vary greatly between indoor and outdoor environments, and can be influenced strongly by variation in landscape features. In the Aedes albopictus system, we conducted a proof-of-concept study in the vicinity of the University of Georgia to explore the effects of fine-scale microclimate variation on mosquito life history and vectorial capacity (VC. We placed Ae. albopictus larvae in artificial pots distributed across three replicate sites within three different land uses-urban, suburban, and rural, which were characterized by high, intermediate, and low proportions of impervious surfaces. Data loggers were placed into each larval environment and in nearby vegetation to record daily variation in water and ambient temperature and relative humidity. The number of adults emerging from each pot and their body size and sex were recorded daily. We found mosquito microclimate to significantly vary across the season as well as with land use. Urban sites were in general warmer and less humid than suburban and rural sites, translating into decreased larval survival, smaller body sizes, and lower per capita growth rates of mosquitoes on urban sites. Dengue transmission potential was predicted to be higher in the summer than the fall. Additionally, the effects of land use on dengue transmission potential varied by season. Warm summers resulted in a higher predicted VC on the cooler, rural sites, while warmer, urban sites had a higher predicted VC during the cooler fall season.

Fine-scale variation in microclimate across an urban landscape shapes variation in mosquito population dynamics and the potential of Aedes albopictus to transmit arboviral disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Murdock, Courtney C; Evans, Michelle V; McClanahan, Taylor D; Miazgowicz, Kerri L; Tesla, Blanka

2017-05-01

Most statistical and mechanistic models used to predict mosquito-borne disease transmission incorporate climate drivers of disease transmission by utilizing environmental data collected at geographic scales that are potentially coarser than what mosquito populations may actually experience. Temperature and relative humidity can vary greatly between indoor and outdoor environments, and can be influenced strongly by variation in landscape features. In the Aedes albopictus system, we conducted a proof-of-concept study in the vicinity of the University of Georgia to explore the effects of fine-scale microclimate variation on mosquito life history and vectorial capacity (VC). We placed Ae. albopictus larvae in artificial pots distributed across three replicate sites within three different land uses-urban, suburban, and rural, which were characterized by high, intermediate, and low proportions of impervious surfaces. Data loggers were placed into each larval environment and in nearby vegetation to record daily variation in water and ambient temperature and relative humidity. The number of adults emerging from each pot and their body size and sex were recorded daily. We found mosquito microclimate to significantly vary across the season as well as with land use. Urban sites were in general warmer and less humid than suburban and rural sites, translating into decreased larval survival, smaller body sizes, and lower per capita growth rates of mosquitoes on urban sites. Dengue transmission potential was predicted to be higher in the summer than the fall. Additionally, the effects of land use on dengue transmission potential varied by season. Warm summers resulted in a higher predicted VC on the cooler, rural sites, while warmer, urban sites had a higher predicted VC during the cooler fall season.

[Entomologic study on the transmission of onchocerciasis in a forest-savanna transition area of Cameroon].

Science.gov (United States)

Barbazan, P; Escaffre, H; Mbentengam, R; Boussinesq, M

1998-01-01

An entomological study was conducted in the basin area of middle Sanaga (Cameroon) in order to document the pattern of onchocerciasis transmission in a region where a high prevalence of infection had been recorded in villages located 30 km from the main rivers. The main vector of O. volvulus was found to be S. squamosum s.s. No breeding site was found in the small tributaries of the Sanaga and Mbam Rivers, and the dispersal of S. damnosum s.l. in the area thus appeared to be particularly high. The highest blackfly population densities were recorded during the long rainy season, and a second peak of density occurred along the Mbam River during the short rainy season. A seasonal variation in dispersal patterns was found at three of the four transects studied. The transmission of Onchocerca volvulus in the area occurred principally between January and May (i.e. at the end of the long dry season and the beginning of the short rainy season). Vector control operations might well reinforce the effect of ivermectin distributions in this onchocerciasis focus.

Identification of a potential toxic hot spot associated with AVS spatial and seasonal variation.

Science.gov (United States)

Campana, O; Rodríguez, A; Blasco, J

2009-04-01

In risk assessment of aquatic sediments, much attention is paid to the difference between acid-volatile sulfide (AVS) and simultaneously extracted metals (SEMs) as indicators of metal availability. Ten representative sampling sites were selected along the estuary of the Guadalete River. Surficial sediments were sampled in winter and summer to better understand SEM and AVS spatial and seasonal distributions and to establish priority risk areas. Total SEM concentration (SigmaSEM) ranged from 0.3 to 4.7 micromol g(-1). It was not significantly different between seasons, however, it showed a significant difference between sampling stations. AVS concentrations were much more variable, showing significant spatial and temporal variations. The values ranged from 0.8 to 22.4 micromol g(-1). The SEM/AVS ratio was found to be <1 at all except one station located near the mouth of the estuary. The results provided information on a potential pollution source near the mouth of the estuary, probably associated with vessel-related activities carried out in a local harbor area located near the station.

Mapping clusters of chikungunya and dengue transmission in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Dengue and chikungunya are mosquito-borne viral diseases that are of public health importance throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Seasonal variations in transmission of these viruses have been suggested owing to the ecology of their mosquito vectors. However, little is known about ...

Durable Viral Suppression and Transmission Risk Potential Among Persons With Diagnosed HIV Infection: United States, 2012-2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Crepaz, Nicole; Tang, Tian; Marks, Gary; Mugavero, Michael J; Espinoza, Lorena; Hall, H Irene

2016-10-01

We examined durable viral suppression, cumulative viral load (VL) burden, and transmission risk potential among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-diagnosed persons in care. Using data from the National HIV Surveillance System from 17 jurisdictions with complete reporting of VL test results, we determined the percentage of persons in HIV care who achieved durable viral suppression (all VL results suppression. The remaining 38% had high VL burden (geometric mean of viremia copy-years, 7261) and spent an average of 438 days, 316 days, and 215 days (60%, 43.2%, and 29.5% of the 2-year period) above 200, 1500, and 10 000 copies/mL. Women, blacks/African Americans, Hispanics/Latinos, persons with HIV infection attributed to transmission other than male-to-male sexual contact, younger age groups, and persons with gaps in care had higher viral burden and transmission risk potential. Two-thirds of persons in HIV care had durable viral suppression during a 2-year period. One-third had high VL burden and spent substantial time above VL levels with increased risk of onward transmission. More intervention efforts are needed to improve retention in care and medication adherence so that more persons in HIV care achieve durable viral suppression. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Proximity effects of high voltage electric power transmission lines on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Yomi

2010-08-18

Aug 18, 2010 ... transmission lines on ornamental plant growth. Zeki Demir ... The effects of proximity to power-line on specific leaf area and seedling dbh were tested .... during vegetation season is about 72% and common wind blow.

Seasonal dynamics of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae in the northernmost state of Brazil: a likely port-of-entry for dengue virus 4

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cláudia Torres Codeço

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Roraima is the northernmost state of Brazil, bordering both Venezuela and Guyana. Appropriate climate and vector conditions for dengue transmission together with its proximity to countries where all four dengue serotypes circulate make this state, particularly the capital Boa Vista, strategically important for dengue surveillance in Brazil. Nonetheless, few studies have addressed the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti in Boa Vista. In this study, we report temporal and spatial variations in Ae. aegypti population density using ovitraps in two highly populated neighbourhoods; Centro and Tancredo Neves. In three out of six surveys, Ae. aegypti was present in more than 80% of the sites visited. High presence levels of this mosquito suggest ubiquitous human exposure to the vector, at least during part of the year. The highest infestation rates occurred during the peak of the rainy seasons, but a large presence was also observed during the early dry season (although with more variation among years. Spatial distribution of positive houses changed from a sparse and local pattern to a very dense pattern during the dry-wet season transition. These results suggest that the risk of dengue transmission and the potential for the new serotype invasions are high for most of the year.

Automobile windshield washer fluid: A potential source of transmission for Legionella

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwake, David Otto; Alum, Absar; Abbaszadegan, Morteza

2015-01-01

Epidemiological evidence suggesting driving cars to be a risk factor for legionellosis has prompted public health studies to investigate vehicle windshield washer fluid as a novel transmission source of this disease. The goal of the current study was to investigate whether or not windshield washer fluid could serve as a potential source of transmission for Legionella. A wide variation in the survival of L. pneumophila was observed when incubated in different washer fluids at 25 and 37 °C, however, one brand tested supported Legionella survival similar to or greater than sterilized deionized water. In addition, 1 L of tap water contained in a washer fluid reservoir was able to support population growth and survival of Legionella for several months. In a field study examining the windshield washer fluid of 12 elementary school buses, Legionella were detected from 84% of samples at a high concentration of 8.1 × 10 4 CFU/mL. Culturable cells were also detected in aerosolized washer fluid during washer fluid spray. By demonstrating survival in certain windshield washer fluids, growth within washer fluid reservoirs, and the presence of viable cells in bus washer fluid spray, we have provided evidence suggesting the potential for a novel route of Legionella exposure. - Highlights: • L. pneumophila survival in one brand of washer fluid and sterilized deionized water were similar. • Legionella population was maintained in tap water for several months. • Culturable Legionella were detected in 10 of 12 school bus washer fluid reservoirs sampled. • Legionella concentrations up to 8.1 × 104 CFU/mL were detected in school bus washer fluid. • L. pneumophila was detected in washer fluid reservoirs and aerosolized washer fluid

Automobile windshield washer fluid: A potential source of transmission for Legionella

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schwake, David Otto [School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 875306, Tempe, AZ 85287 (United States); Alum, Absar [School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 875306, Tempe, AZ 85287 (United States); Abbaszadegan, Morteza, E-mail: abbaszadegan@asu.edu [School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 875306, Tempe, AZ 85287 (United States)

2015-09-01

Epidemiological evidence suggesting driving cars to be a risk factor for legionellosis has prompted public health studies to investigate vehicle windshield washer fluid as a novel transmission source of this disease. The goal of the current study was to investigate whether or not windshield washer fluid could serve as a potential source of transmission for Legionella. A wide variation in the survival of L. pneumophila was observed when incubated in different washer fluids at 25 and 37 °C, however, one brand tested supported Legionella survival similar to or greater than sterilized deionized water. In addition, 1 L of tap water contained in a washer fluid reservoir was able to support population growth and survival of Legionella for several months. In a field study examining the windshield washer fluid of 12 elementary school buses, Legionella were detected from 84% of samples at a high concentration of 8.1 × 10{sup 4} CFU/mL. Culturable cells were also detected in aerosolized washer fluid during washer fluid spray. By demonstrating survival in certain windshield washer fluids, growth within washer fluid reservoirs, and the presence of viable cells in bus washer fluid spray, we have provided evidence suggesting the potential for a novel route of Legionella exposure. - Highlights: • L. pneumophila survival in one brand of washer fluid and sterilized deionized water were similar. • Legionella population was maintained in tap water for several months. • Culturable Legionella were detected in 10 of 12 school bus washer fluid reservoirs sampled. • Legionella concentrations up to 8.1 × 104 CFU/mL were detected in school bus washer fluid. • L. pneumophila was detected in washer fluid reservoirs and aerosolized washer fluid.

Temporal variation in individual factors associated with hantavirus infection in bank voles during an epizootic: implications for Puumala virus transmission dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Tersago, Katrien; Verhagen, Ron; Leirs, Herwig

2011-06-01

Puumala virus (PUUV), the causal agent of nephropathia epidemica in humans, is one of the many hantaviruses included in the list of emerging pathogens. Hantavirus infection is not distributed evenly among PUUV reservoir hosts (i.e., bank voles [Myodes glareolus]). Besides environmental factors and local population features, individual characteristics play an important role in vole PUUV infection risk. Identifying the relative importance of these individual characteristics can provide crucial information on PUUV transmission processes. In the present study, bank voles were monitored during the nephropathia epidemica outbreak of 2005 in Belgium. Vole sera were tested for presence of immunoglobulin G against PUUV, and a logistic mixed model was built to investigate the temporal variation in individual characteristics and their relative importance to PUUV infection risk in bank voles. Relative risk calculations for individual vole characteristics related to PUUV infection in the reservoir host show that reproductive activity dominates infection risk. The gender effect is only found in reproductively active voles, where reproductively active males have the highest infection risk. Results also revealed a clear seasonal variation in the importance of reproductive activity linked to PUUV infection. In contrast to the main effect found in other trapping sessions, no difference in infection risk ratio was found between reproductively active and nonactive voles in the spring period. Combined with increased infection risk for the reproductively nonactive group at that time, these results indicate a shift in the transmission process due to changes in bank vole behavior, physiology, or climate conditions. Hence, our results suggest that mathematical models should take into account seasonal shifts in transmission mechanisms. When these results are combined with the seasonal changes in population structure during the epizootic period, we identify vole reproductive activity and

Bovine coronavirus in naturally andexperimentally exposed calves; viralshedding and the potential for transmission

OpenAIRE

Oma, Veslemøy Sunniva; Tråven, Madeleine; Alenius, S.; Myrmel, Mette; Stokstad, Maria

2016-01-01

Background Bovine coronavirus (BCoV) is a widely distributed pathogen, causing disease and economic losses in the cattle industry worldwide. Prevention of virus spread is impeded by a lack of basic knowledge concerning viral shedding and transmission potential in individual animals. The aims of the study were to investigate the duration and quantity of BCoV shedding in feces and nasal secretions related to clinical signs, the presence of virus in blood and tissues and to test the hypothesis t...

Seasonality of Suicidal Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, Jong-Min; Okusaga, Olaoluwa; Postolache, Teodor T.

2012-01-01

A seasonal suicide peak in spring is highly replicated, but its specific cause is unknown. We reviewed the literature on suicide risk factors which can be associated with seasonal variation of suicide rates, assessing published articles from 1979 to 2011. Such risk factors include environmental determinants, including physical, chemical, and biological factors. We also summarized the influence of potential demographic and clinical characteristics such as age, gender, month of birth, socioeconomic status, methods of prior suicide attempt, and comorbid psychiatric and medical diseases. Comprehensive evaluation of risk factors which could be linked to the seasonal variation in suicide is important, not only to identify the major driving force for the seasonality of suicide, but also could lead to better suicide prevention in general. PMID:22470308

Investigation on potential SCC in gas transmission pipeline in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jian, S. [Petroleum Univ., Beijing (China); Zupei, Y.; Yunxin, M. [China Petroleum Pipeline Corp., Beijing (China). Science and Technology Center

2004-07-01

Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) is a common phenomenon that occurs on the outer surfaces of buried pipelines. This paper investigated aspects of SCC on 3 transmission pipelines on the West-East Gas Pipeline Project in China. The study was comprised of 3 different investigations: (1) an investigation of SCC cases on constructed pipelines; (2) an evaluation of SCC sensitivity of pipeline steels in typical soil environments; and (3) an analysis of soil environments and operation conditions of western pipelines. The study included a review of pipeline corrosion investigations, as well as an examination of pipeline failure cases. Investigative digs were conducted at 21 sites to test soil chemistries. Slow strain rate stress were conducted to evaluate SCC sensitivity of steel pipelines used in China. Potentiodynamic polarization tests were conducted to characterize the electrochemical behaviour of the X70 line pipe steel in different soil environments. Results of the study showed that the environmental conditions in many locations in China contributed to SCC in pipelines. SCC was observed on the surface of X70 steel pipe specimens in both marsh and saline environments. Seasonal temperature changes also contributed additional stress on pipelines. The movement of soil bodies in mountainous areas also contributed to stress and coating damage. It was concluded that proper cathodic protection can alleviate concentrations of local solutions under disbanded coatings. Overprotection of SCC will accelerate the growth of cracks and the degradation of coatings. Samples gathered from the solutions found under the disbanded coatings of pipelines will be used to form part of a reference database for predicting SCC in oil and gas pipelines in the future. 2 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs.

Short report: secondary transmission in porcine cysticercosis: description and their potential implications for control sustainability.

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez, Armando E; López-Urbina, Teresa; Tsang, Byron Y; Gavidia, César M; Garcia, Héctor H; Silva, María E; Ramos, Daphne D; Manzanedo, Rafael; Sánchez-Hidalgo, Lelia; Gilman, Robert H; Tsang, Victor C W

2005-09-01

Taenia solium taeniasis/cysticercosis is one of few potentially eradicable infectious diseases and is the target of control programs in several countries. The larval stage of this zoonotic cestode invades the human brain and is responsible for most cases of adult-onset epilepsy in the world. The pig is the natural intermediate host, harboring the larvae or cysticerci. Our current understanding of the life cycle implicates humans as the only definitive host and tapeworm carrier (developing taeniasis) and thus the sole source of infective eggs that are responsible for cysticercosis in both human and pigs through oral-fecal transmission. Here we show evidence of an alternative pig-to-pig route of transmission, previously not suspected to exist. In a series of four experiments, naive sentinel pigs were exposed to pigs that had been infected orally with tapeworm segments (containing infective eggs) and moved to a clean environment. Consistently in all four experiments, at least one of the sentinel pigs became seropositive or infected with parasite cysts with much lower cyst burdens than did primarily infected animals. Second-hand transmission of Taenia solium eggs could explain the overdispersed pattern of porcine cysticercosis, with few pigs harboring heavy parasite burdens and many more harboring small numbers of parasites. This route of transmission opens new avenues for consideration with respect to control strategies.

The automotive transmission book

CERN Document Server

Fischer, Robert; Jürgens, Gunter; Najork, Rolf; Pollak, Burkhard

2015-01-01

This book presents essential information on systems and interactions in automotive transmission technology and outlines the methodologies used to analyze and develop transmission concepts and designs. Functions of and interactions between components and subassemblies of transmissions are introduced, providing a basis for designing transmission systems and for determining their potentials and properties in vehicle-specific applications: passenger cars, trucks, buses, tractors, and motorcycles. With these fundamentals the presentation provides universal resources for both state-of-the-art and future transmission technologies, including systems for electric and hybrid electric vehicles.

Transmission dynamics of malaria in Nigeria. | Okwa | Annals of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Two of the problems of malaria parasite vector control in Nigeria are the diversity of Anopheline vectors and large size of the country. Anopheline distribution and transmission dynamics of malaria were therefore compared between four ecotypes in Nigeria during the rainy season. Methods: Polymerase chain ...

Surface self-potential patterns related to transmissive fracture trends during a water injection test

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DesRoches, A. J.; Butler, K. E.; MacQuarrie, K. TB

2018-03-01

Variations in self-potential (SP) signals were recorded over an electrode array during a constant head injection test in a fractured bedrock aquifer. Water was injected into a 2.2 m interval isolated between two inflatable packers at 44 m depth in a vertical well. Negative SP responses were recorded on surface corresponding to the start of the injection period with strongest magnitudes recorded in electrodes nearest the well. SP response decreased in magnitude at electrodes further from the well. Deflation of the packer system resulted in a strong reversal in the SP signal. Anomalous SP patterns observed at surface at steady state were found to be aligned with dominant fracture strike orientations found within the test interval. Numerical modelling of fluid and current flow within a simplified fracture network showed that azimuthal patterns in SP are mainly controlled by transmissive fracture orientations. The strongest SP gradients occur parallel to hydraulic gradients associated with water flowing out of the transmissive fractures into the tighter matrix and other less permeable cross-cutting fractures. Sensitivity studies indicate that increasing fracture frequency near the well increases the SP magnitude and enhances the SP anomaly parallel to the transmissive set. Decreasing the length of the transmissive fractures leads to more fluid flow into the matrix and into cross-cutting fractures proximal to the well, resulting in a more circular and higher magnitude SP anomaly. Results from the field experiment and modelling provide evidence that surface-based SP monitoring during constant head injection tests has the ability to identify groundwater flow pathways within a fractured bedrock aquifer.

Integrated rice-duck farming mitigates the global warming potential in rice season.

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Xu, Guochun; Liu, Xin; Wang, Qiangsheng; Yu, Xichen; Hang, Yuhao

2017-01-01

Integrated rice-duck farming (IRDF), as a mode of ecological agriculture, is an important way to realize sustainable development of agriculture. A 2-year split-plot field experiment was performed to evaluate the effects of IRDF on methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and its ecological mechanism in rice season. This experiment was conducted with two rice farming systems (FS) of IRDF and conventional farming (CF) under four paddy-upland rotation systems (PUR): rice-fallow (RF), annual straw incorporating in rice-wheat rotation system (RWS), annual straw-based biogas residues incorporating in rice-wheat rotation system (RWB), and rice-green manure (RGM). During the rice growing seasons, IRDF decreased the CH 4 emission by 8.80-16.68%, while increased the N 2 O emission by 4.23-15.20%, when compared to CF. Given that CH 4 emission contributed to 85.83-96.22% of global warming potential (GWP), the strong reduction in CH 4 emission led to a significantly lower GWP of IRDF as compared to CF. The reason for this trend was because IRDF has significant effect on dissolved oxygen (DO) and soil redox potential (Eh), which were two pivotal factors for CH 4 and N 2 O emissions in this study. The IRDF not only mitigates the GWP, but also increases the rice yield by 0.76-2.43% compared to CF. Moreover, compared to RWS system, RF, RWB and RGM systems significantly reduced CH 4 emission by 50.17%, 44.89% and 39.51%, respectively, while increased N 2 O emission by 10.58%, 14.60% and 23.90%, respectively. And RWS system had the highest GWP. These findings suggest that mitigating GWP and improving rice yield could be simultaneously achieved by the IRDF, and employing suitable PUR would benefit for relieving greenhouse effect. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contact transmission of influenza virus between ferrets imposes a looser bottleneck than respiratory droplet transmission allowing propagation of antiviral resistance

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Frise, Rebecca; Bradley, Konrad; van Doremalen, Neeltje; Galiano, Monica; Elderfield, Ruth A.; Stilwell, Peter; Ashcroft, Jonathan W.; Fernandez-Alonso, Mirian; Miah, Shahjahan; Lackenby, Angie; Roberts, Kim L.; Donnelly, Christl A.; Barclay, Wendy S.

2016-01-01

Influenza viruses cause annual seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics. It is important to elucidate the stringency of bottlenecks during transmission to shed light on mechanisms that underlie the evolution and propagation of antigenic drift, host range switching or drug resistance. The virus spreads between people by different routes, including through the air in droplets and aerosols, and by direct contact. By housing ferrets under different conditions, it is possible to mimic various routes of transmission. Here, we inoculated donor animals with a mixture of two viruses whose genomes differed by one or two reverse engineered synonymous mutations, and measured the transmission of the mixture to exposed sentinel animals. Transmission through the air imposed a tight bottleneck since most recipient animals became infected by only one virus. In contrast, a direct contact transmission chain propagated a mixture of viruses suggesting the dose transferred by this route was higher. From animals with a mixed infection of viruses that were resistant and sensitive to the antiviral drug oseltamivir, resistance was propagated through contact transmission but not by air. These data imply that transmission events with a looser bottleneck can propagate minority variants and may be an important route for influenza evolution. PMID:27430528

Replication and transmission of H9N2 influenza viruses in ferrets: evaluation of pandemic potential.

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Hongquan Wan

2008-08-01

Full Text Available H9N2 avian influenza A viruses are endemic in poultry of many Eurasian countries and have caused repeated human infections in Asia since 1998. To evaluate the potential threat of H9N2 viruses to humans, we investigated the replication and transmission efficiency of H9N2 viruses in the ferret model. Five wild-type (WT H9N2 viruses, isolated from different avian species from 1988 through 2003, were tested in vivo and found to replicate in ferrets. However these viruses achieved mild peak viral titers in nasal washes when compared to those observed with a human H3N2 virus. Two of these H9N2 viruses transmitted to direct contact ferrets, however no aerosol transmission was detected in the virus displaying the most efficient direct contact transmission. A leucine (Leu residue at amino acid position 226 in the hemagglutinin (HA receptor-binding site (RBS, responsible for human virus-like receptor specificity, was found to be important for the transmission of the H9N2 viruses in ferrets. In addition, an H9N2 avian-human reassortant virus, which contains the surface glycoprotein genes from an H9N2 virus and the six internal genes of a human H3N2 virus, showed enhanced replication and efficient transmission to direct contacts. Although no aerosol transmission was observed, the virus replicated in multiple respiratory tissues and induced clinical signs similar to those observed with the parental human H3N2 virus. Our results suggest that the establishment and prevalence of H9N2 viruses in poultry pose a significant threat for humans.

Altitudinal distribution of Aedes indices during dry season in the dengue endemic area of Central Java, Indonesia

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Sayono, Sayono; Nurullita, Ulfa; Sumanto, Didik; Handoyo, Wahyu

Aedes mosquitoes, mainly Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, are the primary and secondary vectors of dengue viruses in Indonesia, with transmission occurring by sucking blood. The density of the vectors is influenced by season and rainfall, but limited by altitude. The aim of the study is to describe the density and distribution of dengue vectors during the dry season based on the altitudes of recent dengue cases in five regencies of Central Java Province, Indonesia. Mosquito larvae and pupae were collected from the indoor and outdoor water containers from 253 houses within 50 m of houses occupied by a dengue patient. A considerable dengue vector population was found in all localities and altitudes based on the Aedes indices: an HI of 41.7% (15.0–70.6), CI of 33.6% (8.1–69.6) and BI of 57.1 (15.0–94.1). The highest indices were found in the highest altitude settlement; as the most common larval habitat in this village was a large-sized cement tank, larvivorous fish can act as effective predators in this case. This finding indicates an expansion of the dengue problem from low to high altitudes, causing a high potential for dengue transmission in all of the localities.

Unstable malaria in Sudan: the influence of the dry season. Malaria in areas of unstable and seasonal transmission. Lessons from Daraweesh

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Theander, T G

1999-01-01

Most studies of the natural history of Plasmodium falciparum infection have been performed in areas of stable malaria transmission and the acquisition of immunity to malaria in individuals who live in such areas is well documented. For the past 10 years, we have monitored host-parasite relationsh......Most studies of the natural history of Plasmodium falciparum infection have been performed in areas of stable malaria transmission and the acquisition of immunity to malaria in individuals who live in such areas is well documented. For the past 10 years, we have monitored host...

Leishmaniasis transmission in an ecotourism area: potential vectors in Ilha Grande, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil.

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Carvalho, Bruno Moreira; Maximo, Michele; Costa, Wagner Alexandre; de Santana, Antonio Luís Ferreira; da Costa, Simone Miranda; da Costa Rego, Taiana Amancio Neves; de Pita Pereira, Daniela; Rangel, Elizabeth Ferreira

2013-11-13

The south coast of Rio de Janeiro State, in Brazil, is endemic for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniases and is frequently visited by tourists from different parts of the world. Since the complex epidemiology of leishmaniases demands local studies, the goal of this study was to investigate the phlebotomine sand fly fauna and leishmaniases transmission in Ilha Grande, an ecotourism area of Angra dos Reis municipality. Sand fly fauna was sampled in three monitoring stations using HP light traps in domiciles, peridomiciles and forests. Species abundance was evaluated by the Index of Species Abundance. A Leishmania natural infection survey was done using multiplex PCR and dot blot hybridization. During 15 consecutive months of sand fly monitoring, 1093 specimens from 16 species were captured. The potential leishmaniases vectors found were Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) intermedia, L. migonei, L. (N.) flaviscutellata, L. (Psychodopygus) ayrozai and L. (Lutzomyia) longipalpis. Five species were new records in Ilha Grande: L. (Sciopemyia) microps, L. termitophila, L. firmatoi, L. rupicola and L. (P.) ayrozai. Higher species richness was found inside forest areas, although potential leishmaniases vectors were present in deforested areas, peridomiciles and inside houses. Lutzomyia (N.) intermedia and L. migonei were the most abundant species. Females of L. migonei showed a high rate (10.3%) of natural infection by Leishmania (Viannia) sp., probably Leishmania (V.) braziliensis. The detection of leishmaniases transmission and potential vectors in Ilha Grande is of public health concern, especially because tourists are frequently visiting the island. Besides reinforcing the epidemiological importance of L. (N.) intermedia in Rio de Janeiro State, the role of L. migonei in cutaneous leishmaniasis transmission is highlighted with its high rate of Leishmania natural infection. The finding of L. (L.) longipalpis confirmed the human autochthonous case of visceral leishmaniasis from the

Enhancing Seasonal Water Outlooks: Needs and Opportunities in the Critical Runoff Season

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Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Yocum, H.; Stokes, M.; Miskus, D.

2017-12-01

The runoff season is a critical period for the management of water supply in the western U.S., where in many places over 70% of the annual runoff occurs in the snowmelt period. Managing not only the volume, but the intra-seasonal timing of the runoff is important for optimizing storage, as well as achieving other goals such as mitigating flood risk, and providing peak flows for riparian habitat management, for example, for endangered species. Western river forecast centers produce volume forecasts for western reservoirs that are key input into many water supply decisions, and also short term river forecasts out to 10 days. The early volume forecasts each year typically begin in December, and are updated throughout the winter and into the runoff season (April-July for many areas, but varies). This presentation will discuss opportunities for enhancing this existing suite of RFC water outlooks, including the needs for and potential use for "intraseasonal" products beyond those provided by the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system and the volume forecasts. While precipitation outlooks have little skill for many areas and seasons, and may not contribute significantly to the outlook, late winter and spring temperature forecasts have meaningful skill in certain areas and sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales. This current skill in CPC temperature outlooks is an opportunity to translate these products into information about the snowpack and potential runoff timing, even where the skill in precipitation is low. Temperature is important for whether precipitation falls as snow or rain, which is critical for streamflow forecasts, especially in the melt season in snowpack-dependent watersheds. There is a need for better outlooks of the evolution of snowpack, conditions influencing the April-July runoff, and the timing of spring peak or shape of the spring hydrograph. The presentation will also discuss a our work with stakeholders of the River Forecast Centers and the NIDIS

Kappa-opioid receptor signaling in the striatum as a potential modulator of dopamine transmission in cocaine dependence

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Pierre eTrifilieff

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Cocaine addiction is accompanied by a decrease in striatal dopamine signaling, measured as a decrease in dopamine D2 receptor binding as well as blunted dopamine release in the striatum. These alterations in dopamine transmission have clinical relevance, and have been shown to correlate with cocaine-seeking behavior and response to treatment for cocaine dependence. However, the mechanisms contributing to the hypodopaminergic state in cocaine addiction remain unknown. Here we review the Positron Emission Tomography (PET imaging studies showing alterations in D2 receptor binding potential and dopamine transmission in cocaine abusers and their significance in cocaine-seeking behavior. Based on animal and human studies, we propose that the kappa receptor/dynorphin system, because of its impact on dopamine transmission and upregulation following cocaine exposure, could contribute to the hypodopaminergic state reported in cocaine addiction, and could thus be a relevant target for treatment development.

Potential contribution of groundwater to dry-season ET in the Amazon

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Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Fan, Ying

2010-05-01

Climate and land ecosystem models simulate vegetation stress in the Amazon forest in the dry season, but observations show enhanced growth in response to higher radiation under less cloudy skies indicating an adequate water supply. The question is: how does the vegetation obtain sufficient water, and what is missing in the models? Shallow model soil and rooting depth is a factor; the ability of roots to move water up and down (hydraulic redistribution) may be another, but another cause may lie in the buffering effect of the groundwater found in nature but absent in models. We present observational and modeling evidence that the vast groundwater store, consequence of high annual rainfall combined with poor drainage in the Amazon, may provide a stable source for dry-season photosynthesis. The water table beneath the Amazon is sufficiently shallow (38% area 2mm/day to dry-season evapotranspiration, a non-negligible portion of tower-observed flux of 3-4mm/day, the latter including canopy-interception loss and open-water evaporation. This may have important implications to our understanding of Amazonia ecosystem response and feedback to climate change. Current models, lacking groundwater, predict a significant reduction in dry-season photosynthesis under current climate and large-scale dieback under projected future climate converting the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net source and accelerating warming. If groundwater is considered in the models, the magnitude of the responses and feedbacks may be reduced.

Self-similar transmission properties of aperiodic Cantor potentials in gapped graphene

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Rodríguez-González, Rogelio; Rodríguez-Vargas, Isaac; Díaz-Guerrero, Dan Sidney; Gaggero-Sager, Luis Manuel

2016-01-01

We investigate the transmission properties of quasiperiodic or aperiodic structures based on graphene arranged according to the Cantor sequence. In particular, we have found self-similar behaviour in the transmission spectra, and most importantly, we have calculated the scalability of the spectra. To do this, we implement and propose scaling rules for each one of the fundamental parameters: generation number, height of the barriers and length of the system. With this in mind we have been able to reproduce the reference transmission spectrum, applying the appropriate scaling rule, by means of the scaled transmission spectrum. These scaling rules are valid for both normal and oblique incidence, and as far as we can see the basic ingredients to obtain self-similar characteristics are: relativistic Dirac electrons, a self-similar structure and the non-conservation of the pseudo-spin.

Unforeseen consequences of dedicated renewable energy transmission: Potential implications for renewable electricity development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bezdek, Roger

2010-09-15

Renewable electricity generation requires expansion of electricity transmission, and the U.S. is planning to build a 'green' transmission lines restricted to renewable electricity. However, local jurisdictions are resisting this unless the transmission serves local constituents and existing power plants. This paper finds that if such transmission is built and local access allowed, then the major beneficiaries may be existing power plants. Their access to added transmission could enable them to sell electric power at rates against which renewables cannot compete. These issues must be addressed if large additions of new transmission lines are to facilitate expansion of renewable electricity generation worldwide.

Seasonal and Spatial Environmental Influence on Opisthorchis viverrini Intermediate Hosts, Abundance, and Distribution: Insights on Transmission Dynamics and Sustainable Control.

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Christina Sunyoung Kim

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Opisthorchis viverrini (Ov is a complex-life-cycle trematode affecting 10 million people in SEA (Southeast Asia. Human infection occurs when infected cyprinid fish are consumed raw or undercooked. Ov requires three hosts and presents two free-living parasitic stages. As a consequence Ov transmission and infection in intermediate and human hosts are strongly mediated by environmental factors and understanding how environmental variability influences intermediate host abundance is critical. The objectives of this study were 1 to document water parameters, intermediate hosts abundance and infection spatio-temporal variation, 2 to assess their causal relationships and identify windows of transmission risk.Fish and snails were collected monthly for one year at 12 sites in Lawa Lake, an Ov-endemic region of Khon Kaen Province in Northeast Thailand. Physicochemical water parameters [pH, temperature (Tp, dissolved oxygen (DO, Salinity, electrical conductivity (EC, total dissolved solid (TDS, nitrite nitrogen (NO2-N, lead (Pb, total coliform bacteria (TCB and fecal coliform bacteria (FCB] were measured. Multivariate analyses, linear models and kriging were used to characterize water parameter variation and its influence on host abundance and infection prevalence. We found that sampling sites could be grouped in three clusters and discriminated along a nitrogen-salinity gradient where higher levels in the lake's southern region predicted higher Bithynia relative abundance (P<0.05 and lower snail and fish species diversity (P<0.05. Highest Bithynia abundance occurred during rainy season (P<0.001, independently of site influence. Cyprinids were the most abundant fish family and higher cyprinid relative abundance was found in areas with higher Bithynia relative abundance (P<0.05. Ov infection in snails was anecdotal while Ov infection in fish was higher in the southern region (P<0.001 at sites showing high FCB.Our results indicate that water contamination

Diagnosing observed characteristics of the wet season across Africa to identify deficiencies in climate model simulations

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Dunning, C.; Black, E.; Allan, R. P.

2017-12-01

The seasonality of rainfall over Africa plays a key role in determining socio-economic impacts for agricultural stakeholders, influences energy supply from hydropower, affects the length of the malaria transmission season and impacts surface water supplies. Hence, failure or delays of these rains can lead to significant socio-economic impacts. Diagnosing and interpreting interannual variability and long-term trends in seasonality, and analysing the physical driving mechanisms, requires a robust definition of African precipitation seasonality, applicable to both observational datasets and model simulations. Here we present a methodology for objectively determining the onset and cessation of multiple wet seasons across the whole of Africa. Compatibility with known physical drivers of African rainfall, consistency with indigenous methods, and generally strong agreement between satellite-based rainfall data sets confirm that the method is capturing the correct seasonal progression of African rainfall. Application of this method to observational datasets reveals that over East Africa cessation of the short rains is 5 days earlier in La Nina years, and the failure of the rains and subsequent humanitarian disaster is associated with shorter as well as weaker rainy seasons over this region. The method is used to examine the representation of the seasonality of African precipitation in CMIP5 model simulations. Overall, atmosphere-only and fully coupled CMIP5 historical simulations represent essential aspects of the seasonal cycle; patterns of seasonal progression of the rainy season are captured, for the most part mean model onset/ cessation dates agree with mean observational dates to within 18 days. However, unlike the atmosphere-only simulations, the coupled simulations do not capture the biannual regime over the southern West African coastline, linked to errors in Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature. Application to both observational and climate model datasets, and

Natural plant sugar sources of Anopheles mosquitoes strongly impact malaria transmission potential.

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Weidong Gu

Full Text Available An improved knowledge of mosquito life history could strengthen malaria vector control efforts that primarily focus on killing mosquitoes indoors using insecticide treated nets and indoor residual spraying. Natural sugar sources, usually floral nectars of plants, are a primary energy resource for adult mosquitoes but their role in regulating the dynamics of mosquito populations is unclear. To determine how the sugar availability impacts Anopheles sergentii populations, mark-release-recapture studies were conducted in two oases in Israel with either absence or presence of the local primary sugar source, flowering Acacia raddiana trees. Compared with population estimates from the sugar-rich oasis, An. sergentii in the sugar-poor oasis showed smaller population size (37,494 vs. 85,595, lower survival rates (0.72 vs. 0.93, and prolonged gonotrophic cycles (3.33 vs. 2.36 days. The estimated number of females older than the extrinsic incubation period of malaria (10 days in the sugar rich site was 4 times greater than in the sugar poor site. Sugar feeding detected in mosquito guts in the sugar-rich site was significantly higher (73% than in the sugar-poor site (48%. In contrast, plant tissue feeding (poor quality sugar source in the sugar-rich habitat was much less (0.3% than in the sugar-poor site (30%. More important, the estimated vectorial capacity, a standard measure of malaria transmission potential, was more than 250-fold higher in the sugar-rich oasis than that in the sugar-poor site. Our results convincingly show that the availability of sugar sources in the local environment is a major determinant regulating the dynamics of mosquito populations and their vector potential, suggesting that control interventions targeting sugar-feeding mosquitoes pose a promising tactic for combating transmission of malaria parasites and other pathogens.

Dry season ecology of Anopheles gambiae complex mosquitoes in The Gambia

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Bogh Claus

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria in The Gambia is highly seasonal, with transmission occurring as Anopheles gambiae s.l. populations expand during and immediately after a single annual rainy season that lasts from June to October. There has been very limited investigation of the ecology of vectors during the dry season, when numbers are very limited and distributions may be restricted. Methods Weekly adult mosquito collections (pyrethrum spray, light trap, and search collections from rooms, as well as light trap collections from animal shelters, abandoned wells and grain stores, and artificial sentinel breeding site surveys were performed in four villages near the upper tidal and partially saline part of the Gambia River in the last four months of an annual dry season (March to June. Mosquito species were identified by morphological and DNA analysis, and ELISA assays were performed to test for Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites and human blood meal components. Results Adults of An. gambiae s.l. were collected throughout the period, numbers increasing towards the end of the dry season when humidity was increasing. Adult collections were dominated by An. melas (86%, with An. gambiae s.s. (10% and An. arabiensis (3% also present throughout. Most females collected in room search and spray collections contained blood meals, but most from light traps were unfed. None of the females tested (n = 1709 contained sporozoites. Larvae (mostly An. gambiae s.s. were recovered from artificial sentinel breeding sites in the two villages that had freshwater pools. These two villages had the highest proportions of An. gambiae s.s. adults, and experienced the most substantial increase in proportions of An. gambiae s.s. after the onset of rains. Conclusion During the dry season population minimum, An. melas was the predominant vector species, but differences among villages in availability of fresh-water breeding sites correlate with egg laying activity and relative

Dry season ecology of Anopheles gambiae complex mosquitoes in The Gambia.

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Jawara, Musa; Pinder, Margaret; Drakeley, Chris J; Nwakanma, Davis C; Jallow, Ebrima; Bogh, Claus; Lindsay, Steve W; Conway, David J

2008-08-18

Malaria in The Gambia is highly seasonal, with transmission occurring as Anopheles gambiae s.l. populations expand during and immediately after a single annual rainy season that lasts from June to October. There has been very limited investigation of the ecology of vectors during the dry season, when numbers are very limited and distributions may be restricted. Weekly adult mosquito collections (pyrethrum spray, light trap, and search collections from rooms, as well as light trap collections from animal shelters, abandoned wells and grain stores), and artificial sentinel breeding site surveys were performed in four villages near the upper tidal and partially saline part of the Gambia River in the last four months of an annual dry season (March to June). Mosquito species were identified by morphological and DNA analysis, and ELISA assays were performed to test for Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites and human blood meal components. Adults of An. gambiae s.l. were collected throughout the period, numbers increasing towards the end of the dry season when humidity was increasing. Adult collections were dominated by An. melas (86%), with An. gambiae s.s. (10%) and An. arabiensis (3%) also present throughout. Most females collected in room search and spray collections contained blood meals, but most from light traps were unfed. None of the females tested (n = 1709) contained sporozoites. Larvae (mostly An. gambiae s.s.) were recovered from artificial sentinel breeding sites in the two villages that had freshwater pools. These two villages had the highest proportions of An. gambiae s.s. adults, and experienced the most substantial increase in proportions of An. gambiae s.s. after the onset of rains. During the dry season population minimum, An. melas was the predominant vector species, but differences among villages in availability of fresh-water breeding sites correlate with egg laying activity and relative numbers of An. gambiae s.s. adults, and with the increase in this

Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs.

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Springer, Andrea; Kappeler, Peter M; Nunn, Charles L

2017-05-01

Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery

Estimating the transmission potential of supercritical processes based on the final size distribution of minor outbreaks.

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Nishiura, Hiroshi; Yan, Ping; Sleeman, Candace K; Mode, Charles J

2012-02-07

Use of the final size distribution of minor outbreaks for the estimation of the reproduction numbers of supercritical epidemic processes has yet to be considered. We used a branching process model to derive the final size distribution of minor outbreaks, assuming a reproduction number above unity, and applying the method to final size data for pneumonic plague. Pneumonic plague is a rare disease with only one documented major epidemic in a spatially limited setting. Because the final size distribution of a minor outbreak needs to be normalized by the probability of extinction, we assume that the dispersion parameter (k) of the negative-binomial offspring distribution is known, and examine the sensitivity of the reproduction number to variation in dispersion. Assuming a geometric offspring distribution with k=1, the reproduction number was estimated at 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.97-1.38). When less dispersed with k=2, the maximum likelihood estimate of the reproduction number was 1.14. These estimates agreed with those published from transmission network analysis, indicating that the human-to-human transmission potential of the pneumonic plague is not very high. Given only minor outbreaks, transmission potential is not sufficiently assessed by directly counting the number of offspring. Since the absence of a major epidemic does not guarantee a subcritical process, the proposed method allows us to conservatively regard epidemic data from minor outbreaks as supercritical, and yield estimates of threshold values above unity. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector's climatic suitability and virus' temperature requirements.

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Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie M; Suk, Jonathan E; Sudre, Bertrand; Hess, Andrea; Tjaden, Nils B; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Semenza, Jan C

2013-11-12

Chikungunya was, from the European perspective, considered to be a travel-related tropical mosquito-borne disease prior to the first European outbreak in Northern Italy in 2007. This was followed by cases of autochthonous transmission reported in South-eastern France in 2010. Both events occurred after the introduction, establishment and expansion of the Chikungunya-competent and highly invasive disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) in Europe. In order to assess whether these outbreaks are indicative of the beginning of a trend or one-off events, there is a need to further examine the factors driving the potential transmission of Chikungunya in Europe. The climatic suitability, both now and in the future, is an essential starting point for such an analysis. The climatic suitability for Chikungunya outbreaks was determined by using bioclimatic factors that influence, both vector and, pathogen. Climatic suitability for the European distribution of the vector Aedes albopictus was based upon previous correlative environmental niche models. Climatic risk classes were derived by combining climatic suitability for the vector with known temperature requirements for pathogen transmission, obtained from outbreak regions. In addition, the longest potential intra-annual season for Chikungunya transmission was estimated for regions with expected vector occurrences.In order to analyse spatio-temporal trends for risk exposure and season of transmission in Europe, climate change impacts are projected for three time-frames (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These climatic projections are based on regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which builds on the global model ECHAM5. European areas with current and future climatic suitability of Chikungunya transmission are identified. An increase in risk is projected for Western Europe (e.g. France and Benelux-States) in the

Hydroclimatic mechanisms of cholera transmission in the Bengal Delta

Science.gov (United States)

Tretkoff, Ernie

2011-07-01

Cholera, a deadly waterborne disease, remains a major threat in many areas of the world, including the Bengal Delta region. In this region, cholera outbreaks have two annual peaks; the first occurs during the dry season in the spring, and the second occurs in the fall following the wet season. However, the large-scale hydroclimatic processes underlying the propagation of the disease have not been well understood. Akanda et al. show that cholera outbreaks in the Bengal Delta region propagate from the coast to inland and from spring to fall following two distinct transmission cycles. The first outbreak begins in the spring near the coast when northward movement of plankton-rich seawater and increasing salinity promote the growth of cholera-causing bacteria in rivers, which are used for irrigation, sanitation, and consumption. The second outbreak begins in the fall, after summer floods and monsoons affect sanitation conditions that aid in bacterial transmission by contaminating waters over much of Bangladesh. (Water Resources Research, doi:10.1029/ 2010WR009914, 2011)

The social contact hypothesis under the assumption of endemic equilibrium: Elucidating the transmission potential of VZV in Europe

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E. Santermans

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The basic reproduction number R0 and the effective reproduction number R are pivotal parameters in infectious disease epidemiology, quantifying the transmission potential of an infection in a population. We estimate both parameters from 13 pre-vaccination serological data sets on varicella zoster virus (VZV in 12 European countries and from population-based social contact surveys under the commonly made assumptions of endemic and demographic equilibrium. The fit to the serology is evaluated using the inferred effective reproduction number R as a model eligibility criterion combined with AIC as a model selection criterion. For only 2 out of 12 countries, the common choice of a constant proportionality factor is sufficient to provide a good fit to the seroprevalence data. For the other countries, an age-specific proportionality factor provides a better fit, assuming physical contacts lasting longer than 15 min are a good proxy for potential varicella transmission events. In all countries, primary infection with VZV most often occurs in early childhood, but there is substantial variation in transmission potential with R0 ranging from 2.8 in England and Wales to 7.6 in The Netherlands. Two non-parametric methods, the maximal information coefficient (MIC and a random forest approach, are used to explain these differences in R0 in terms of relevant country-specific characteristics. Our results suggest an association with three general factors: inequality in wealth, infant vaccination coverage and child care attendance. This illustrates the need to consider fundamental differences between European countries when formulating and parameterizing infectious disease models.

Ecological Interactions between Humans, Wildlife Viral Reservoirs, and Key Environmental Drivers of Hantaan Virus Transmission

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Xin Tong

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The occurrence and transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS are closely related to environmental variability, so it is essential to clarify the complex relationships among the environment, hantavirus transmission, and the population dynamics of its wildlife hosts. Tian et al. analyzed a large, long-term dataset describing the circulation of hantavirus in rodents and its spillover into humans. Their article incorporates several mathematical models and argues that the interaction between environmental and human behavioral factors drives the observed seasonality and interannual variations in important zoonotic diseases. The ecological cascade effect of a drought in 2002 is highlighted, and the role of seasonality in agricultural activity is emphasized in that study.

Key issues for estimating the impact and cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination strategies.

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Jit, Mark; Newall, Anthony T; Beutels, Philippe

2013-04-01

Many countries have considered or are considering modifying their seasonal influenza immunization policies. Estimating the impact of such changes requires understanding the existing clinical and economic burden of influenza, as well as the potential impact of different vaccination options. Previous studies suggest that vaccinating clinical risk groups, health care workers, children and the elderly may be cost-effective. However, challenges in such estimation include: (1) potential cases are not usually virologically tested; (2) cases have non-specific symptoms and are rarely reported to surveillance systems; (3) endpoints for influenza proxies (such as influenza-like illness) need to be matched to case definitions for treatment costs, (4) disease burden estimates vary from year to year with strain transmissibility, virulence and prior immunity, (5) methods to estimate productivity losses due to influenza vary, (6) vaccine efficacy estimates from trials differ due to variation in subtype prevalence, vaccine match and case ascertainment, and (7) indirect (herd) protection from vaccination depends on setting-specific variables that are difficult to directly measure. Given the importance of knowing the impact of changes to influenza policy, such complexities need careful treatment using tools such as population-based trial designs, meta-analyses, time-series analyses and transmission dynamic models.

Seasonality and dietary requirements: will eating seasonal food contribute to health and environmental sustainability?

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Macdiarmid, Jennie I

2014-08-01

Eating more seasonal food is one proposal for moving towards more sustainable consumption patterns, based on the assumption that it could reduce the environmental impact of the diet. The aim of the present paper is to consider the implications of eating seasonal food on the different elements of sustainability (i.e. health, economics, society), not just the environment. Seasonality can be defined as either globally seasonal (i.e. produced in the natural production season but consumed anywhere in the world) or locally seasonal (i.e. produced in the natural production season and consumed within the same climatic zone). The environmental, health, economic and societal impact varies by the definition used. Global seasonality has the nutritional benefit of providing a more varied and consistent supply of fresh produce year round, but this increases demand for foods that in turn can have a high environmental cost in the country of production (e.g. water stress, land use change with loss of biodiversity). Greenhouse gas emissions of globally seasonal food are not necessarily higher than food produced locally as it depends more on the production system used than transportation. Eating more seasonal food, however, is only one element of a sustainable diet and should not overshadow some of the potentially more difficult dietary behaviours to change that could have greater environmental and health benefits (e.g. reducing overconsumption or meat consumption). For future guidelines for sustainable diets to be realistic they will need to take into account modern lifestyles, cultural and social expectations in the current food environment.

Dogma disputed: potential endemic heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus in Australia.

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Chapman, S

1992-06-01

The concept of tertiary sexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has been central to government efforts to communicate notions of risk to heterosexuals in Australia. Data on heterosexually transmitted acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and HIV for Australia are reviewed with emphasis given to the probability of misclassification bias in the heterosexually acquired and 'other/undetermined' categories. Tertiary cases are almost certainly rare in Australia, with little evidence of any increase in their incidence since the first cases were recorded. Three factors (low probability of exposure, the infectivity of HIV and a comparatively low rate of sexual partner change) make it improbable that Australian heterosexuals with no risk factors will experience endemic HIV infection, with a caveat to this conclusion lying in the potential of Australian sex tourism to Southeast Asia for introducing HIV into the Australian heterosexual population. Four hegemonic factors which have acted to suppress any serious debate of the notion that HIV in Australia is unlikely to become endemic among heterosexuals are discussed: the political 'democratization' of risk inspired by concerns that gay men should not be further vilified as a victim group; the preventive imperative; a reluctance among health educators to question the very foundations of the message they are employed to deliver; and a reluctance to curtail 'Trojan horse' benefits to sexually transmissible disease prevention engendered by HIV education promoting safe sex messages.

A survey of endangered waterbirds on Maui and Oahu and assessment of potential impacts to waterbirds from the proposed Hawaii Geothermal Project transmission corridor. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Evans, K.; Woodside, D.; Bruegmann, M. [Fish and Wildlife Service, Honolulu, HI (United States). Pacific Islands Office

1994-08-01

A survey of endangered waterbirds on Maui and Oahu was conducted during August and September 1993 to identify potential waterbird habitats within the general area of the proposed Hawaii Geothermal Project transmission corridor and to assess the potential impacts to endangered waterbird of installing and operating a high voltage transmission line from the Island of Hawaii to the islands of Oahu and Maui. Annual waterbird survey information and other literature containing information on specific wetland sites were summarized. Literature describing impacts of overhead transmission lines on birds was used to evaluate potential impacts of the proposed project on endangered waterbirds, resident wading birds, and migratory shorebirds and waterfowl. On Oahu, five wetland habitats supporting endangered Hawaiian waterbirds were identified within 2.5 miles of the proposed transmission line corridor. On Maui, three wetland habitats supporting endangered Hawaiian waterbirds were identified within the general area of the proposed transmission line corridor. Several of the wetlands identified on Oahu and Maui also supported resident wading birds and migratory shorebirds and waterfowl. Endangered waterbirds, resident wading birds, and migratory birds may collide with the proposed transmission lines wires. The frequency and numbers of bird collisions is expected to be greater on Oahu than on Maui because more wetland habitat exists and greater numbers of birds occur in the project area on Oahu. In addition, the endangered Hawaiian goose and the endangered Hawaiian petrel may be impacted by the proposed segment of the Hawaii Geothermal Project transmission line on Maui.

The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Winsemius, HC

2013-12-01

Full Text Available -range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system. The focus is on the frequency of dry spells as well as the frequency of heat stress conditions expressed in the Temperature Heat Index. In areas where their frequency of occurrence increases...

The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission.

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Lindsay M Beck-Johnson

Full Text Available The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.

Lack of Active Onchocerca volvulus Transmission in the Northern Chiapas Focus of Mexico

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Rodríguez-Pérez, Mario A.; Unnasch, Thomas R.; Domínguez-Vázquez, Alfredo; Morales-Castro, Alba L.; Richards, Frank; Peña-Flores, Graciela P.; Orozco-Algarra, María Eugenia; Prado-Velasco, Gibert

2010-01-01

The northern Chiapas onchocerciasis focus has undergone 11 years of ivermectin mass treatment. No evidence of microfilariae in the cornea and/or anterior chamber of the eye or in skin snips was seen in residents examined in 2006 in two sentinel communities (upper limit of the 95% confidence interval [UL 95% CI] = 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively). In children 10 and under, 0 of 305 were found to harbor antibodies to Ov16, a marker of parasite exposure; 0 of 4,400 Simulium ochraceum s.l. collected in 2005 contained parasite DNA, giving an UL 95% CI for the infective rate of 0.9/2,000, and an UL 95% CI of the seasonal transmission potential of 1.2 L3/person. These data, assumed to be representative of the focus as a whole, suggest that there is no ongoing transmission of Onchocerca volvulus in the northern Chiapas focus. Community-wide treatments with ivermectin were halted in 2008, and a post-treatment surveillance phase was initiated. PMID:20595471

Light transmission through intraocular lenses with or without yellow chromophore (blue light filter) and its potential influence on functional vision in everyday environmental conditions.

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Owczarek, Grzegorz; Gralewicz, Grzegorz; Skuza, Natalia; Jurowski, Piotr

2016-01-01

In this research the factors used to evaluate the light transmission through two types of acrylic hydrophobic intraocular lenses, one that contained yellow chromophore that blocks blue light transmission and the other which did not contain that filter, were defined according to various light condition, e.g., daylight and at night. The potential influence of light transmission trough intraocular lenses with or without yellow chromophore on functional vision in everyday environmental conditions was analysed.

Electricity Transmission, Pipelines, and National Trails. An Analysis of Current and Potential Intersections on Federal Lands in the Eastern United States, Alaska, and Hawaii

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuiper, James A; Krummel, John R; Hlava, Kevin J; Moore, H Robert; Orr, Andrew B; Schlueter, Scott O; Sullivan, Robert G; Zvolanek, Emily A

2014-03-25

As has been noted in many reports and publications, acquiring new or expanded rights-of-way for transmission is a challenging process, because numerous land use and land ownership constraints must be overcome to develop pathways suitable for energy transmission infrastructure. In the eastern U.S., more than twenty federally protected national trails (some of which are thousands of miles long, and cross many states) pose a potential obstacle to the development of new or expanded electricity transmission capacity. However, the scope of this potential problem is not well-documented, and there is no baseline information available that could allow all stakeholders to study routing scenarios that could mitigate impacts on national trails. This report, Electricity Transmission, Pipelines, and National Trails: An Analysis of Current and Potential Intersections on Federal Lands in the Eastern United States, was prepared by the Environmental Science Division of Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne). Argonne was tasked by DOE to analyze the “footprint” of the current network of National Historic and Scenic Trails and the electricity transmission system in the 37 eastern contiguous states, Alaska, and Hawaii; assess the extent to which national trails are affected by electrical transmission; and investigate the extent to which national trails and other sensitive land use types may be affected in the near future by planned transmission lines. Pipelines are secondary to transmission lines for analysis, but are also within the analysis scope in connection with the overall directives of Section 368 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, and because of the potential for electrical transmission lines being collocated with pipelines. Based on Platts electrical transmission line data, a total of 101 existing intersections with national trails on federal land were found, and 20 proposed intersections. Transmission lines and pipelines are proposed in Alaska; however there are no

Spatial and temporal clustering of dengue virus transmission in Thai villages.

Science.gov (United States)

Mammen, Mammen P; Pimgate, Chusak; Koenraadt, Constantianus J M; Rothman, Alan L; Aldstadt, Jared; Nisalak, Ananda; Jarman, Richard G; Jones, James W; Srikiatkhachorn, Anon; Ypil-Butac, Charity Ann; Getis, Arthur; Thammapalo, Suwich; Morrison, Amy C; Libraty, Daniel H; Green, Sharone; Scott, Thomas W

2008-11-04

Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the leading cause of arboviral disease worldwide, is known to vary through time and space, likely owing to a combination of factors related to the human host, virus, mosquito vector, and environment. An improved understanding of variation in transmission patterns is fundamental to conducting surveillance and implementing disease prevention strategies. To test the hypothesis that DENV transmission is spatially and temporally focal, we compared geographic and temporal characteristics within Thai villages where DENV are and are not being actively transmitted. Cluster investigations were conducted within 100 m of homes where febrile index children with (positive clusters) and without (negative clusters) acute dengue lived during two seasons of peak DENV transmission. Data on human infection and mosquito infection/density were examined to precisely (1) define the spatial and temporal dimensions of DENV transmission, (2) correlate these factors with variation in DENV transmission, and (3) determine the burden of inapparent and symptomatic infections. Among 556 village children enrolled as neighbors of 12 dengue-positive and 22 dengue-negative index cases, all 27 DENV infections (4.9% of enrollees) occurred in positive clusters (p availability of piped water in negative clusters (p < 0.01) and greater number of Ae. aegypti pupae per person in positive clusters (p = 0.04). During primarily DENV-4 transmission seasons, the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic infections was nearly 1:1 among child enrollees. Study limitations included inability to sample all children and mosquitoes within each cluster and our reliance on serologic rather than virologic evidence of interval infections in enrollees given restrictions on the frequency of blood collections in children. Our data reveal the remarkably focal nature of DENV transmission within a hyperendemic rural area of Thailand. These data suggest that active school-based dengue case detection

Reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa: a model-based evaluation of intervention strategies.

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Jamie T Griffin

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Over the past decade malaria intervention coverage has been scaled up across Africa. However, it remains unclear what overall reduction in transmission is achievable using currently available tools.We developed an individual-based simulation model for Plasmodium falciparum transmission in an African context incorporating the three major vector species (Anopheles gambiae s.s., An. arabiensis, and An. funestus with parameters obtained by fitting to parasite prevalence data from 34 transmission settings across Africa. We incorporated the effect of the switch to artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT and increasing coverage of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs from the year 2000 onwards. We then explored the impact on transmission of continued roll-out of LLINs, additional rounds of indoor residual spraying (IRS, mass screening and treatment (MSAT, and a future RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in six representative settings with varying transmission intensity (as summarized by the annual entomological inoculation rate, EIR: 1 setting with low, 3 with moderate, and 2 with high EIRs, vector-species combinations, and patterns of seasonality. In all settings we considered a realistic target of 80% coverage of interventions. In the low-transmission setting (EIR approximately 3 ibppy [infectious bites per person per year], LLINs have the potential to reduce malaria transmission to low levels (90% or novel tools and/or substantial social improvements will be required, although considerable reductions in prevalence can be achieved with existing tools and realistic coverage levels.Interventions using current tools can result in major reductions in P. falciparum malaria transmission and the associated disease burden in Africa. Reduction to the 1% parasite prevalence threshold is possible in low- to moderate-transmission settings when vectors are primarily endophilic (indoor-resting, provided a comprehensive and sustained intervention program is achieved through

High seasonal variation in entomologic inoculation rates in Eritrea, a semi-arid region of unstable malaria in Africa.

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Shililu, Josephat; Ghebremeskel, Tewolde; Mengistu, Solomon; Fekadu, Helen; Zerom, Mehari; Mbogo, Charles; Githure, John; Novak, Robert; Brantly, Eugene; Beier, John C

2003-12-01

Entomologic studies were conducted in eight villages to investigate the patterns of malaria transmission in different ecologic zones in Eritrea. Mosquito collections were conducted for 24 months between September 1999 and January 2002. The biting rates of Anopheles arabiensis were highly seasonal, with activity concentrated in the wet season between June and October in the highlands and western lowlands, and between December and March in the coastal region. The biting rates in the western lowlands were twice as high as in the western escarpment and 20 times higher than in the coastal region. Sporozoite rates were not significantly different among villages. The risk of infection ranged from zero on the coast to 70.6 infective bites per year in the western lowlands. The number of days it would take for an individual to receive an infective bite from an infected An. arabiensis was variable among villages (range = 2.8-203.1 days). The data revealed the presence of only one main malaria transmission period between July and October for the highlands and western lowlands. Peak inoculation rates were recorded in August and September (range = 0.29-43.6 infective bits/person/month) at all sites over the two-year period. The annual entomologic inoculation rates (EIRs) varied greatly depending on year. The EIR profiles indicated that the risk of exposure to infected mosquitoes is highly heterogeneous and seasonal, with high inoculation rates during the rainy season, and with little or no transmission during the dry season. This study demonstrates the need to generate spatial and temporal data on transmission intensity on smaller scales to guide targeted control of malaria operations in semi-arid regions. Furthermore, EIR estimates derived in the present study provide a means of quantifying levels of exposure to infected mosquitoes in different regions of the country and could be important for evaluating the efficacy of vector control measures, since Eritrea has made

Climate-induced seasonal changes in smallmouth bass growth rate potential at the southern range extent

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Middaugh, Christopher R.; Kessinger, Brin; Magoulick, Daniel D.

2018-01-01

Temperature increases due to climate change over the coming century will likely affect smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) growth in lotic systems at the southern extent of their native range. However, the thermal response of a stream to warming climate conditions could be affected by the flow regime of each stream, mitigating the effects on smallmouth bass populations. We developed bioenergetics models to compare change in smallmouth bass growth rate potential (GRP) from present to future projected monthly stream temperatures across two flow regimes: runoff and groundwater-dominated. Seasonal differences in GRP between stream types were then compared. The models were developed for fourteen streams within the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri, USA, which contain smallmouth bass. In our simulations, smallmouth bass mean GRP during summer months decreased by 0.005 g g−1 day−1 in runoff streams and 0.002 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams by the end of century. Mean GRP during winter, fall and early spring increased under future climate conditions within both stream types (e.g., 0.00019 g g−1 day−1 in runoff and 0.0014 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams in spring months). We found significant differences in change in GRP between runoff and groundwater streams in three seasons in end-of-century simulations (spring, summer and fall). Potential differences in stream temperature across flow regimes could be an important habitat component to consider when investigating effects of climate change as fishes from various flow regimes that are relatively close geographically could be affected differently by warming climate conditions.

Climate change and prolongation of growing season: changes in regional potential for field crop production in Finland

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P. PELTONEN-SAINIO

2008-12-01

studied in more detail to estimate timing of introduction. Prolonged physiologically effective growing seasons would increase yielding capacities of major field crops. Of the current minor crops, oilseed rape (Brassica napus L., winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L., triticale (X Triticosecale Wittmack, pea (Pisum sativum L. and faba bean (Vicia faba L. are particularly strong candidates to become major crops. Moreover, they have good potential for industrial processing and are currently being bred. Realisation of increased yield potential requires adaptation to 1 elevated daily mean temperatures that interfere with development rate of seed crops under long days, 2 relative reductions in water availability at critical phases of yield determination, 3 greater pest and disease pressure, 4 other uncertainties caused by weather extremes and 5 generally greater need for inputs such as nitrogen fertilisers for non-nitrogen fixing crops.;

Investigation of hydraulic transmission noise sources

Science.gov (United States)

Klop, Richard J.

Advanced hydrostatic transmissions and hydraulic hybrids show potential in new market segments such as commercial vehicles and passenger cars. Such new applications regard low noise generation as a high priority, thus, demanding new quiet hydrostatic transmission designs. In this thesis, the aim is to investigate noise sources of hydrostatic transmissions to discover strategies for designing compact and quiet solutions. A model has been developed to capture the interaction of a pump and motor working in a hydrostatic transmission and to predict overall noise sources. This model allows a designer to compare noise sources for various configurations and to design compact and inherently quiet solutions. The model describes dynamics of the system by coupling lumped parameter pump and motor models with a one-dimensional unsteady compressible transmission line model. The model has been verified with dynamic pressure measurements in the line over a wide operating range for several system structures. Simulation studies were performed illustrating sensitivities of several design variables and the potential of the model to design transmissions with minimal noise sources. A semi-anechoic chamber has been designed and constructed suitable for sound intensity measurements that can be used to derive sound power. Measurements proved the potential to reduce audible noise by predicting and reducing both noise sources. Sound power measurements were conducted on a series hybrid transmission test bench to validate the model and compare predicted noise sources with sound power.

The concentrations of ambient Burkholderia pseudomallei during typhoon season in endemic area of melioidosis in Taiwan.

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Ya-Lei Chen

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Melioidosis is a severe bacterial infection caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei with a high case-fatality rate. Epidemiological and animal studies show the possibility of inhalation transmission. However, no B. pseudomallei concentrations in ambient air have been researched. Here, we developed a method to quantify ambient B. pseudomallei and then measured concentrations of ambient B. pseudomallei during the typhoon season and the non-typhoon season to determine the factors influencing ambient B. pseudomallei levels. METHODS: We quantified ambient B. pseudomallei by using a filter/real-time qPCR method in the Zoynan Region in Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan. Twenty-four hour samples were collected at a sampling rate of 20 L/min every day from June 11 to December 21, 2012 including during the typhoon season (June to September and reference season (October to December. RESULTS: We successfully developed a filtration/real-time qPCR method to quantify ambient B. pseudomallei. To our knowledge, this is the first report describing concentrations of ambient B. pseudomallei. Ambient B. pseudomallei were only detected during the typhoon season when compared to the reference season. For the typhoons affecting the Zoynan Region, the positive rates of ambient B. pseudomallei were very high at 80% to 100%. During June to December, rainfall was positively correlated with ambient B. pseudomallei with a statistical significance. Sediment at a nearby pond significantly influenced the concentration of ambient B. pseudomallei. During the typhoon month, the typhoon was positively correlated with ambient B. pseudomallei whereas wind speed was reversely correlated with ambient B. pseudomallei. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest the possibility of transmission of B. pseudomallei via inhalation during the typhoon season.

The concentrations of ambient Burkholderia pseudomallei during typhoon season in endemic area of melioidosis in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ya-Lei; Yen, Yu-Chuan; Yang, Chun-Yuh; Lee, Min Sheng; Ho, Chi-Kung; Mena, Kristina D; Wang, Peng-Yau; Chen, Pei-Shih

2014-01-01

Melioidosis is a severe bacterial infection caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei with a high case-fatality rate. Epidemiological and animal studies show the possibility of inhalation transmission. However, no B. pseudomallei concentrations in ambient air have been researched. Here, we developed a method to quantify ambient B. pseudomallei and then measured concentrations of ambient B. pseudomallei during the typhoon season and the non-typhoon season to determine the factors influencing ambient B. pseudomallei levels. We quantified ambient B. pseudomallei by using a filter/real-time qPCR method in the Zoynan Region in Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan. Twenty-four hour samples were collected at a sampling rate of 20 L/min every day from June 11 to December 21, 2012 including during the typhoon season (June to September) and reference season (October to December). We successfully developed a filtration/real-time qPCR method to quantify ambient B. pseudomallei. To our knowledge, this is the first report describing concentrations of ambient B. pseudomallei. Ambient B. pseudomallei were only detected during the typhoon season when compared to the reference season. For the typhoons affecting the Zoynan Region, the positive rates of ambient B. pseudomallei were very high at 80% to 100%. During June to December, rainfall was positively correlated with ambient B. pseudomallei with a statistical significance. Sediment at a nearby pond significantly influenced the concentration of ambient B. pseudomallei. During the typhoon month, the typhoon was positively correlated with ambient B. pseudomallei whereas wind speed was reversely correlated with ambient B. pseudomallei. Our data suggest the possibility of transmission of B. pseudomallei via inhalation during the typhoon season.

Mapping hotspots of malaria transmission from pre-existing hydrology, geology and geomorphology data in the pre-elimination context of Zanzibar, United Republic of Tanzania.

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Hardy, Andrew; Mageni, Zawadi; Dongus, Stefan; Killeen, Gerry; Macklin, Mark G; Majambare, Silas; Ali, Abdullah; Msellem, Mwinyi; Al-Mafazy, Abdul-Wahiyd; Smith, Mark; Thomas, Chris

2015-01-22

Larval source management strategies can play an important role in malaria elimination programmes, especially for tackling outdoor biting species and for eliminating parasite and vector populations when they are most vulnerable during the dry season. Effective larval source management requires tools for identifying geographic foci of vector proliferation and malaria transmission where these efforts may be concentrated. Previous studies have relied on surface topographic wetness to indicate hydrological potential for vector breeding sites, but this is unsuitable for karst (limestone) landscapes such as Zanzibar where water flow, especially in the dry season, is subterranean and not controlled by surface topography. We examine the relationship between dry and wet season spatial patterns of diagnostic positivity rates of malaria infection amongst patients reporting to health facilities on Unguja, Zanzibar, with the physical geography of the island, including land cover, elevation, slope angle, hydrology, geology and geomorphology in order to identify transmission hot spots using Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) analysis. The distribution of both wet and dry season malaria infection rates can be predicted using freely available static data, such as elevation and geology. Specifically, high infection rates in the central and southeast regions of the island coincide with outcrops of hard dense limestone which cause locally elevated water tables and the location of dolines (shallow depressions plugged with fine-grained material promoting the persistence of shallow water bodies). This analysis provides a tractable tool for the identification of malaria hotspots which incorporates subterranean hydrology, which can be used to target larval source management strategies.

Seasonal prevalence of antibodies to Leptospira interrogans in Antillean manatees from a landlocked lake in Tabasco, Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Aragón-Martínez, Arianna; Olivera-Gómez, León D; Jiménez-Domínguez, Darwin

2014-07-01

Factors that alter the dynamics of ecologic systems can influence transmission of infectious diseases and may lead to decreases in natural populations. Leptospirosis is a cosmopolitan disease of zoonotic importance that affects most mammals. At the southern Gulf of Mexico, Antillean manatees (Trichechus manatus manatus) inhabit highly variable environments, with extended floods during the rainy season and drought conditions during the dry season that affect food availability and the thermal environment for manatees. We tested for changes in prevalence and titers of antibodies to 12 serovars of Leptospira interrogans in manatees between dry and rainy seasons. We determined titers for L. interrogans through microscopic agglutination tests (MAT) from 10 manatees, six during the dry season (DS), and six during the rainy season (RS) in Laguna de las Ilusiones, a landlocked lake hosting a population of about 20 manatees. All individuals were antibody positive (titers ≥ 100) to at least one serovar. The serovars bataviae, bratislava, canicola, and icterohaemorrhagiae had overall prevalences ≥ 50%; bataviae, bratislava, and canicola had prevalences ≥ 50% during both seasons. Serovars icterohaemorrhagiae and pyrogenes had prevalences ≥ 50% during DS and pomona, tarassovi, wolfii, and autumnalis during RS. Significant differences in prevalence between seasons were found for pomona, tarassovi, and autumnalis. Titers of tarassovi, wolfii, autumnalis, and bataviae were significantly higher during RS. There was a high prevalence of L. interrogans during the RS independent of high availability of plant foods, coinciding with the epizootiology of the bacteria that are endemic to tropical regions. Another factor possibly influencing prevalence is high anthropogenic pressure at the lake, causing an increase in potential sources of infection. Because of possible cross-reaction in MAT, further research is needed on the molecular discrimination of serovars in animals in the

Evaluation of Off-season Potential Breeding Sources for Spotted Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii Matsumura) in Michigan.

Science.gov (United States)

Bal, Harit K; Adams, Christopher; Grieshop, Matthew

2017-12-05

It has been suggested that fruit wastes including dropped and unharvested fruits, and fruit byproducts (i.e., pomace) found in fruit plantings and cideries or wine-making facilities could serve as potential off-season breeding sites for spotted wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae)). This idea, however, has yet to be widely tested. The goal of our study was to determine the potential of dropped fruit and fruit wastes as Fall spotted wing Drosophila breeding resources in Michigan, USA. Fruit waste samples were collected from 15 farms across the lower peninsula of Michigan and were evaluated for spotted wing Drosophila and other drosophilid emergence and used in host suitability bioassays. All of the dropped apples, pears, grapes, and raspberries and 40% of apple and 100% of grape fruit pomace evaluated were found to contain spotted wing Drosophila with the highest numbers collected from dropped grapes and pears. Greater spotted wing Drosophila recovery was found in fruit wastes at sites attached with cideries and wine-making facilities and with multiple cultivated fruit crops than sites with no cideries and only one crop. Females oviposited in raspberry, pear, apple, grape, apple pomace and grape pomace samples with the highest rates of reproduction in raspberries. Our results demonstrate that fruit wastes including dropped berry, pomme and stone fruits, as well as fruit compost may be important late season reproductive resources for spotted wing Drosophila. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

[Vectorial transmission of malaria in a village along the Niger River and its fishing hamlet (Kéniéroba and Fourda, Mali)].

Science.gov (United States)

Keïta, M; Baber, I; Sogoba, N; Maïga, H M; Diallo, M'b; Doumbia, S; Traoré, S F

2014-12-01

A better understanding of malaria transmission dynamics is an essential element in the development of any targeted vector control strategy. The objective of this study was to better understand malaria transmission dynamics along the Niger River in Sudan savanna zone of Mali. Trough cross-sectional surveys, Anopheline larvae were collected by WHO standard dipping technique, and vector adults by Human Landing and pyrethrum spray catches methods. The vector population was composed of An. gambiae s.l. (> 99%) and An. funestus (hamlet Fourda) compared to farther inland Kéniéroba. The average infection rate of An. gambiae s.l. was 3.63% and 4.06% in Kéniéroba and Fourda respectively. The average entomological inoculation rate (EIR) during the study period was almost similar in Kéniéroba (0.70 infective bites/person/month) and Fourda (0.69 infective bites/person/month). The means EIRs over each of the rainy season 2006 and 2007 were always higher than the one of the dry season 2007 in both localities, with much smaller amplitude in Fourda than in Kéniéroba. However, the level of the transmission was 2.31 (0.37/0.16) times higher in Fourda than in Kéniéroba during the dry season.We conclude that in Sudan savanna zone of Mali, malaria transmission along the river is continuous throughout the year, but it is more intense in the immediate vicinity of the river during the dry season than during the rainy season in opposition to more distant localities to the river and vector control should not be focused only on the rainy in such setting.

The epidemiology of febrile malaria episodes in an area of unstable and seasonal transmission

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Giha, H A; Rosthoj, S; Dodoo, D

2000-01-01

hazard model for recurrent events stratified by family, we have calculated the relative hazard for clinical malaria episodes by age, sex, haemoglobin genotype, blood type and infection in the previous season. The malaria risk was significantly lower in individuals aged 20-88 years than in the 5-19 years...

Study and comparison of some methods for calculating the transmission factor of a potential barrier in quantum mechanics (1963); Etude et comparaison de quelques methodes de calcul du facteur de transmission d'une barriere de potentiel en mecanique quantique (1963)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jamet, P [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

1964-07-01

The author formulates two accurate methods for the calculation of the transmission coefficient of a one-dimensional potential barrier. The principles of these methods are. expressed in a symmetrical form with respect to the two sides of the potential barrier; this constitutes a proof of the fact that the transmission coefficient is path direction independent. The numerical application is carried out on several examples and the results are compared to those provided by the WKB method. (author) [French] L'auteur formule deux methodes exactes pour calculer le coefficient de transmission d'une barriere de potentiel unidimensionnelle. Les principes de ces methodes s'enoncent sous forme symetrique par rapport aux deux cotes de la barriere de potentiel, ce qui constitue une demonstration du fait que le coefficient de transmission est independant du sens de parcours. L'application numerique est faite sur quelques exemples et les resultats sont compares a ceux fournis par la methode B KW. (auteur)

Potential for Zika virus introduction and transmission in resource limited countries in Africa and Asia-Pacific: A modeling study

Science.gov (United States)

German, Matthew; Creatore, Maria I.; Brent, Shannon; Watts, Alexander G.; Hay, Simon I.; Kulkarni, Manisha A.; Brownstein, John S.; Khan, Kamran

2016-01-01

Summary Background As the epidemic of Zika virus expands in the Americas, countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are becoming increasingly susceptible to the importation and possible local spread of the virus. To support public health readiness, we aim to identify regions and times where the potential health, economic, and social effects from Zika virus are greatest, focusing on resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Methods Our model combined transportation network analysis, ecological modelling of mosquito occurrences, and vector competence for flavivirus transmission, using data from the International Air Transport Association, entomological observations from Zika’s primary vector species, and climate conditions using WorldClim. We overlaid monthly flows of airline travellers arriving to Africa and the Asia-Pacific region from areas of the Americas suitable for year-round transmission of Zika virus with monthly maps of climatic suitability for mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus within Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Findings An estimated 2·6 billion people live in areas of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region where the presence of competent mosquito vectors and suitable climatic conditions could support local transmission of Zika virus. Countries with large volumes of travellers arriving from Zika affected areas of the Americas and large populations at risk of mosquito-borne Zika virus infection include, India (67 422 travellers arriving per year; 1·2 billion residents in potential Zika transmission areas), China (238 415 travellers; 242 million residents), Indonesia (13 865 travellers; 197 million residents), Philippines (35 635 travellers; 70 million residents), and Thailand (29 241 travellers; 59 million residents). Interpretation Many countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are vulnerable to Zika virus. Strategic use of available health and human resources is essential to prevent or mitigate

Guinea pig model for evaluating the potential public health risk of swine and avian influenza viruses.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yipeng; Bi, Yuhai; Pu, Juan; Hu, Yanxin; Wang, Jingjing; Gao, Huijie; Liu, Linqing; Xu, Qi; Tan, Yuanyuan; Liu, Mengda; Guo, Xin; Yang, Hanchun; Liu, Jinhua

2010-11-23

The influenza viruses circulating in animals sporadically transmit to humans and pose pandemic threats. Animal models to evaluate the potential public health risk potential of these viruses are needed. We investigated the guinea pig as a mammalian model for the study of the replication and transmission characteristics of selected swine H1N1, H1N2, H3N2 and avian H9N2 influenza viruses, compared to those of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and seasonal human H1N1, H3N2 influenza viruses. The swine and avian influenza viruses investigated were restricted to the respiratory system of guinea pigs and shed at high titers in nasal tracts without prior adaptation, similar to human strains. None of the swine and avian influenza viruses showed transmissibility among guinea pigs; in contrast, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus transmitted from infected guinea pigs to all animals and seasonal human influenza viruses could also horizontally transmit in guinea pigs. The analysis of the receptor distribution in the guinea pig respiratory tissues by lectin histochemistry indicated that both SAα2,3-Gal and SAα2,6-Gal receptors widely presented in the nasal tract and the trachea, while SAα2,3-Gal receptor was the main receptor in the lung. We propose that the guinea pig could serve as a useful mammalian model to evaluate the potential public health threat of swine and avian influenza viruses.

The Effect of Seasonal Weather Variation on the Dynamics of the Plague Disease

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Rigobert C. Ngeleja

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Plague is a historic disease which is also known to be the most devastating disease that ever occurred in human history, caused by gram-negative bacteria known as Yersinia pestis. The disease is mostly affected by variations of weather conditions as it disturbs the normal behavior of main plague disease transmission agents, namely, human beings, rodents, fleas, and pathogens, in the environment. This in turn changes the way they interact with each other and ultimately leads to a periodic transmission of plague disease. In this paper, we formulate a periodic epidemic model system by incorporating seasonal transmission rate in order to study the effect of seasonal weather variation on the dynamics of plague disease. We compute the basic reproduction number of a proposed model. We then use numerical simulation to illustrate the effect of different weather dependent parameters on the basic reproduction number. We are able to deduce that infection rate, progression rates from primary forms of plague disease to more severe forms of plague disease, and the infectious flea abundance affect, to a large extent, the number of bubonic, septicemic, and pneumonic plague infective agents. We recommend that it is more reasonable to consider these factors that have been shown to have a significant effect on RT for effective control strategies.

NEW SEASON NEW HOPES: OFF-SEASON OPTIMISM

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Oguz Ersan

2017-12-01

Full Text Available While literature on the relation between on-field sports performance and stock returns is ample, there is very limited evidence on off-season stage. Constituting around 3 months, off-seasons do not only occupy a significant part of the year but also represent totally different characteristics than on-seasons. They lack the periodic, unambiguous news events in on-seasons (match results, instead they are associated with highly uncertain transfer news and rumors. We show that this distinction has several impacts on the stock market performances of soccer clubs. Most notably, off-seasons generate substantially higher (excess returns. After controlling for other variables, the estimated effect of off-season periods is as high as 38.75%, annually. In line with several seminal studies, we link this fact to increased optimism and betting behavior through uncertain periods; and periods prior to the start of a new calendar (in our case, new season. For all of the examined 7 clubs (3 from Italy and 4 from Turkey, mean excess returns over the market are positive (negative in off-seasons (on-seasons. On-seasons are associated with increased trading activity due to more frequent news. Stocks of Italian clubs are evidently more volatile through off-seasons while volatility results for the stocks of Turkish clubs are not consistent.

Multi-core fiber undersea transmission systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nooruzzaman, Md; Morioka, Toshio

2017-01-01

Various potential architectures of branching units for multi-core fiber undersea transmission systems are presented. It is also investigated how different architectures of branching unit influence the number of fibers and those of inline components.......Various potential architectures of branching units for multi-core fiber undersea transmission systems are presented. It is also investigated how different architectures of branching unit influence the number of fibers and those of inline components....

Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season

Science.gov (United States)

2015-08-14

Influenza Seasonal Summarv 2014-2015 Season EpiData Center Department Communicable Disease Division NMCPHC-EDC-TR-394-2015 REPORT DOCUMENTATION... Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season Sb. GRANT NUMBER $c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHORjS) Sd. PROJECT NUMBER Ashleigh K McCabe, Kristen R...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 1<l. ABSTRACT This report summartzes influenza activity among Department of Navy (DON) and Depar1ment of Defense (DOD

Social and behavioral barriers to pathogen transmission in wild animal populations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loehle, C.S.

1988-12-31

Disease and pathogens have been studied as regulators of animal populations but not really as selective forces. The authors propose that pathogens can be major selective forces influencing social behaviors when these are successful at reducing disease transmission. The behaviors whose evolution could have been influenced by pathogen effects include group size, group isolation, mixed species flocking, migration, seasonal sociality, social avoidance, and dominance behaviors. Mate choice, mating system, and sexual selection are put in a new light when examined in terms of disease transmission. It is concluded that pathogen avoidance is a more powerful selective force than has heretofore been recognized.

Vector incrimination and effects of antimalarial drugs on malaria transmission and control in the Amazon Basin of Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. A. Klein

1992-01-01

Full Text Available World ecosystems differ significantly and a multidisciplinary malaria control approach must be adjusted to meet these requirements. These include a comprehensive understanding of the malaria vectors, their behavior, seasonal distribution and abundance, susceptibility to insecticides (physiological and behavioral, methods to reduce the numbers of human gametocyte carriers through effective health care systems and antimalarial drug treatment, urban malaria transmission versus rural or forest malaria transmission, and the impact of vaccine development. Many malaria vectors are members of species complexes and individual relationship to malaria transmission, seasonal distribution, bitting behavior, etc. is poorly understood. Additionaly, malaria patients are not examined for circulating gametocytes and both falciparum and vivax malaria patients may be highly infective to mosquitoes after treatment with currently used antimalarial drugs. Studies on the physiological and behavioral effects of DDT and other insecticides are inconclusive and need to be evalusted.

Investigation of the seasonal microbiome of Anopheles coluzzii mosquitoes in Mali.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin J Krajacich

Full Text Available The poorly understood mechanisms of dry season persistence of Anopheles spp. mosquitoes through the dry season in Africa remain a critical gap in our knowledge of Plasmodium disease transmission. While it is thought that adult mosquitoes remain in a dormant state throughout this seven-month dry season, the nature of this state remains unknown and has largely not been recapitulated in laboratory settings. To elucidate possible connections of this state with microbial composition, the whole body microbiomes of adult mosquitoes in the dry and wet seasons in two locations of Mali with varying water availability were compared by sequencing the 16S ribosomal RNA gene. These locations were a village near the Niger River with year-round water sources (N'Gabakoro, "riparian", and a typical Sahelian area with highly seasonal breeding sites (Thierola Area, "Sahelian". The 16S bacterial data consisted of 2057 sequence variants in 426 genera across 184 families. From these data, we found several compositional differences that were seasonally and spatially linked. Counter to our initial hypothesis, there were more pronounced seasonal differences in the bacterial microbiome of riparian, rather than Sahelian areas. These seasonal shifts were primarily in Ralstonia, Sphingorhabdus, and Duganella spp. bacteria that are usually soil and water-associated, indicating these changes may be from bacteria acquired in the larval environment, rather than adulthood. In Sahelian dry season mosquitoes, there was a unique intracellular bacteria, Anaplasma, which likely was acquired through non-human blood feeding. Cytochrome B analysis of blood meals showed greater heterogeneity in host choice of An. coluzzii independent of season in the Thierola area compared to N'Gabakoro (77.5% vs. 94.6% human-origin blood meal, respectively, indicating a relaxation of anthropophily. Overall, this exploratory study provides valuable indications of spatial and seasonal differences in

Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

Science.gov (United States)

Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

2017-10-01

A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

Seasonality in communication and collective decision-making in ants.

Science.gov (United States)

Stroeymeyt, N; Jordan, C; Mayer, G; Hovsepian, S; Giurfa, M; Franks, N R

2014-04-07

The ability of animals to adjust their behaviour according to seasonal changes in their ecology is crucial for their fitness. Eusocial insects display strong collective behavioural seasonality, yet the mechanisms underlying such changes are poorly understood. We show that nest preference by emigrating Temnothorax albipennis ant colonies is influenced by a season-specific modulatory pheromone that may help tune decision-making according to seasonal constraints. The modulatory pheromone triggers aversion towards low-quality nests and enhances colony cohesion in summer and autumn, but not after overwintering-in agreement with reports that field colonies split in spring and reunite in summer. Interestingly, we show that the pheromone acts by downgrading the perceived value of marked nests by informed and naive individuals. This contrasts with theories of collective intelligence, stating that accurate collective decision-making requires independent evaluation of options by individuals. The violation of independence highlighted here was accordingly shown to increase error rate during emigrations. However, this is counterbalanced by enhanced cohesion and the transmission of valuable information through the colony. Our results support recent claims that optimal decisions are not necessarily those that maximize accuracy. Other criteria-such as cohesion or reward rate-may be more relevant in animal decision-making.

Behaviors, movements, and transmission of droplet-mediated respiratory diseases during transcontinental airline flights

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, Howard; Elon, Lisa; Si, Wenpei; Norris, Sharon L.

2018-01-01

With over 3 billion airline passengers annually, the inflight transmission of infectious diseases is an important global health concern. Over a dozen cases of inflight transmission of serious infections have been documented, and air travel can serve as a conduit for the rapid spread of newly emerging infections and pandemics. Despite sensational media stories and anecdotes, the risks of transmission of respiratory viruses in an airplane cabin are unknown. Movements of passengers and crew may facilitate disease transmission. On 10 transcontinental US flights, we chronicled behaviors and movements of individuals in the economy cabin on single-aisle aircraft. We simulated transmission during flight based on these data. Our results indicate there is low probability of direct transmission to passengers not seated in close proximity to an infectious passenger. This data-driven, dynamic network transmission model of droplet-mediated respiratory disease is unique. To measure the true pathogen burden, our team collected 229 environmental samples during the flights. Although eight flights were during Influenza season, all qPCR assays for 18 common respiratory viruses were negative. PMID:29555754

Potential of fodder tree/shrub legumes as a feed resource for dry season supplementation of smallholder ruminant animals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simbaya, J.

2002-01-01

Fodder tree/shrub legumes have the potential for alleviating some of the feed shortages and nutritional deficiencies experienced in the dry season on smallholder farms. Zambia has a wide range of naturally occurring tree/shrub species that can be used as fodder for ruminants. Over the years a number of trees have been selected for their agronomic qualities and are currently being used in arable farming systems to promote soil fertility and erosion control. There is a need to evaluate them for use as fodder for ruminants in the dry season. Because of their high content of protein, minerals and vitamins and availability in the dry season, fodder tree/shrub legumes have the capacity to complement the feeding of crop-residues and natural pastures. Tree/shrub legumes also have other advantages in that they are available on-farm and can also be used as a source of food, timber and medicines at village level. Being deep rooted, fodder trees are rarely affected by seasonal climatic changes. The main limitation to their use as a feed resource for ruminants is the high tannin content which may have detrimental effects on the performance of animals. A number of techniques including, wilting, sun-drying, treatment with chemicals and ammoniation have been developed to minimize their adverse effects. Controlled intake through stall feeding or mixing of tree/shrub fodder with basal diets could also be used to mitigate their toxic effects. Research is currently under way to establish rumen microbes that have capacity to detoxify tannins. To promote increased use of fodder trees on smallholder farms, farmers must be provided with information on the good quality fodder trees and the approaches to effectively utilise them. They should also be encouraged to start planting fodder trees in their food crop farming systems or establishing fodder gardens on fallow lands. (author)

76 FR 58806 - Notice of Petition for Declaratory Order; Southern Cross Transmission LLC

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-22

... (Project) to anchor customers through long-term firm negotiated rate transmission service agreements with whatever capacity that is not committed to anchor customers be made available through an open season... with any FERC Online service, please e-mail [email protected] , or call (866) 208-3676 (toll...

Modeling freshwater snail habitat suitability and areas of potential snail-borne disease transmission in Uganda

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Jørgensen, Aslak; Kabatereine, N B

2006-01-01

-borne disease transmission areas. Furthermore, knowledge of abiotic factors affecting intra-molluscan parasitic development can be used to make "masks" based on remotely sensed climatic data, and these can in turn be used to refine these predictions. We used data from a recent freshwater snail survey from......Geographic information system (GIS-based modeling of an intermediate host snail species environmental requirements using known occurrence records can provide estimates of its spatial distribution. When other data are lacking, this can be used as a rough spatial prediction of potential snail...... Uganda, environmental data and the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) to map the potential distribution of snail species known to act as intermediate hosts of several human and animal parasites. The results suggest that large areas of Uganda are suitable habitats for many of these snail...

Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy and Meat Safety

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Hester J. T.; Knight, Richard S. G.

Prion diseases or transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) comprise a wide-ranging group of neurodegenerative diseases found in animals and humans. They have diverse causes and geographical distributions, but have similar pathological features, transmissibility and, are ultimately, fatal. Central to all TSEs is the presence of an abnormal form of a normal host protein, namely the prion protein. Because of their potential transmissibility, these diseases have wide public health ramifications.

Revisiting Renewable Energy Map in Indonesia: Seasonal Hydro and Solar Energy Potential for Rural Off-Grid Electrification (Provincial Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agung Wahyuono Ruri

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Regarding the acceleration of renewable energy diffusion in Indonesia as well as achieving the national energy mix target, renewable energy map is essential to provide useful information to build renewable energy system. This work aims at updating the renewable energy potential map, i.e. hydro and solar energy potential, with a revised model based on the global climate data. The renewable energy map is intended to assist the design off-grid system by hydropower plant or photovoltaic system, particularly for rural electrification. Specifically, the hydro energy map enables the stakeholders to determine the suitable on-site hydro energy technology (from pico-hydro, micro-hydro, mini-hydro to large hydropower plant. Meanwhile, the solar energy map depicts not only seasonal solar energy potential but also estimated energy output from photovoltaic system.

PHYSIOLOGIC BEHAVIOR OF TWO CLONES OF EUCALYPTUS IN DRY AND RAINY SEASON

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Sandro Dan Tatagiba

2007-06-01

Full Text Available This research studied the behavior of several gaseous trade off (liquid photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, transpiration and water use efficiency and leaf water potential of adult trees of two clones of Eucalyptus in dry and rainy season, in Itauninhas county, Espírito Santo State, in order to allow the seasonal variations of the atmosphere affect carbon assimilation and mainly, the primary productivity of the plants. Clones 15 and 39 presented different answers in the behavior of the gaseous trade off and of leaf water potential in the two studied seasons. The largest values of liquid photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and transpiration and of leaf water potential were found in the rainy season, due to soil water surplus, while in the dry season, the water deficiency cause reduction of those physiologic variables. Clone 39 presented larger values of liquid photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and transpiration in comparison to clone 15, in the dry season, while efficiency in the use of water was inferior, indicating that this clone can probably reach larger productivity, but its strategy in saving water, presented smaller efficiency.

Environmental concerns regarding electric power transmission in North America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeCicco, J.M.; Bernow, S.S.; Beyea, J.

1992-01-01

The electric utilities of North America have become ever more interconnected via transmission facilities, largely to insure reliability. Current policy discussions regarding transmission include calls for improved access, increased capacity, and deregulation to facilitate trade in electric power. From an environmental perspective, two issues have been notably absent in much of the debate: (1) a recognition of the full range of environmental impacts related to electricity transmission; and (2) the potential for end-use efficiency to address the reliability and economy requirements that motivate attention to transmission. This paper broaches these issues, starting with an elaboration of the environmental impacts, which range from global and regional effects to local concerns, including the potential health risks associated with electric and magnetic fields. We emphasize that transmission planning should occur as part of an integrated planning process, in which the environmental and social costs of various options are fully considered. We discuss the potential for end-use efficiency to lessen environmental impacts of both transmission and generation. We conclude that there is a need to ensure that environmental externalities and demand-side alternatives are adequately considered when transmission network expansions are proposed. (Author)

Beyond Massive MIMO: The Potential of Data Transmission With Large Intelligent Surfaces

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Sha; Rusek, Fredrik; Edfors, Ove

2018-05-01

In this paper, we consider the potential of data-transmission in a system with a massive number of radiating and sensing elements, thought of as a contiguous surface of electromagnetically active material. We refer to this as a large intelligent surface (LIS). The "LIS" is a newly proposed concept, which conceptually goes beyond contemporary massive MIMO technology, that arises from our vision of a future where man-made structures are electronically active with integrated electronics and wireless communication making the entire environment "intelligent". We consider capacities of single-antenna autonomous terminals communicating to the LIS where the entire surface is used as a receiving antenna array. Under the condition that the surface-area is sufficiently large, the received signal after a matched-filtering (MF) operation can be closely approximated by a sinc-function-like intersymbol interference (ISI) channel. We analyze the capacity per square meter (m^2) deployed surface, \\hat{C}, that is achievable for a fixed transmit power per volume-unit, \\hat{P}. Moreover, we also show that the number of independent signal dimensions per m deployed surface is 2/\\lambda for one-dimensional terminal-deployment, and \\pi/\\lambda^2 per m^2 for two and three dimensional terminal-deployments. Lastly, we consider implementations of the LIS in the form of a grid of conventional antenna elements and show that, the sampling lattice that minimizes the surface-area of the LIS and simultaneously obtains one signal space dimension for every spent antenna is the hexagonal lattice. We extensively discuss the design of the state-of-the-art low-complexity channel shortening (CS) demodulator for data-transmission with the LIS.

Survivorship Of Anopheles gambiae In Relation To Malaria Transmission In Ilorin, Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Israel Kayode Olayemi

2008-11-01

Full Text Available For the first time in Africa, an entomological study went beyond the conventional practice of determining parity and survival rates of field-collected adult anopheline mosquitoes but also related these variables to duration of Plasmodium sporogony and estimated the expectation of infective life. Blood-seeking female mosquitoes were collected in Ilorin, Nigeria, from January 2005 to December 2006, and dissected for ovarian tracheations following WHO recommended techniques. The results indicated an annual mean parous rate of 70.92%, and significantly higher parous rates in the rainy than dry season, which also had very low densities. Mean probability of daily survival of the mosquitoes was 0.80, with annual mean life expectancy of 12.24 days. The probability of surviving the sporogonic cycle was low (< 0.4 but the expectation of infective life was long, especially in the rainy season (mean = 8.31 days. The epidemiological implications of these results were discussed. The An. gambiae population in Ilorin is dominated by older mosquitoes with high survival rates thus, suggesting a high vector potential for the species in the area. These information on the survival rates of An. gambiae in relation to malaria transmission would enhance the development of a more focused and informed vector control interventions

Seasonal and diel patterns in cetacean use and foraging at a potential marine renewable energy site.

Science.gov (United States)

Nuuttila, Hanna K; Bertelli, Chiara M; Mendzil, Anouska; Dearle, Nessa

2018-04-01

Marine renewable energy (MRE) developments often coincide with sites frequented by small cetaceans. To understand habitat use and assess potential impact from development, echolocation clicks were recorded with acoustic click loggers (C-PODs) in Swansea Bay, Wales (UK). General Additive Models (GAMs) were applied to assess the effects of covariates including month, hour, tidal range and temperature. Analysis of inter-click intervals allowed the identification of potential foraging events as well as patterns of presence and absence. Data revealed year-round presence of porpoise, with distinct seasonal and diel patterns. Occasional acoustic encounters of dolphins were also recorded. This study provides further evidence of the need for assessing temporal trends in cetacean presence and habitat use in areas considered for development. These findings could assist MRE companies to monitor and mitigate against disturbance from construction, operation and decommissioning activities by avoiding times when porpoise presence and foraging activity is highest in the area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The account of sagging of wires at definition of specific potential factors of air High-Voltage Power Transmission Lines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suslov V.M.

2005-12-01

Full Text Available The opportunity approached is shown, but more exact as it is usually accepted, the account of sagging of wires at definition of specific potential factors air High-Voltage Power Transmission Lines. The technique of reception of analytical expressions is resulted. For an opportunity of comparison traditional expressions for specific potential factors are resulted also. Communication of the offered and traditional analytical expressions is shown. Offered analytical expressions are not difficult for programming on a personal computer of any class and besides they allow to make an estimation of an error of traditional expressions by means of parallel definition of specific potential factors by both ways.

DUST-BATHING BEHAVIORS OF AFRICAN HERBIVORES AND THE POTENTIAL RISK OF INHALATIONAL ANTHRAX.

Science.gov (United States)

Barandongo, Zoe R; Mfune, John K E; Turner, Wendy C

2018-01-01

:  Anthrax in herbivorous wildlife and livestock is generally assumed to be transmitted via ingestion or inhalation of Bacillus anthracis spores. Although recent studies have highlighted the importance of the ingestion route for anthrax transmission, little is known about the inhalational route in natural systems. Dust bathing could aerosolize soilborne pathogens such as B. anthracis, exposing dust-bathing individuals to inhalational infections. We investigated the potential role of dust bathing in the transmission of inhalational anthrax to herbivorous wildlife in Etosha National Park, Namibia, an area with endemic seasonal anthrax outbreaks. We 1) cultured soils from dust-bathing sites for the presence and concentration of B. anthracis spores, 2) monitored anthrax carcass sites, the locations with the highest B. anthracis concentrations, for evidence of dust bathing, including a site where a zebra died of anthrax on a large dust bath, and 3) characterized the ecology and seasonality of dust bathing in plains zebra ( Equus quagga), blue wildebeest ( Connochaetes taurinus), and African savanna elephant ( Loxodonta africana) using a combination of motion-sensing camera traps and direct observations. Only two out of 83 dust-bath soils were positive for B. anthracis, both with low spore concentrations (≤20 colony-forming units per gram). We also detected no evidence of dust baths occurring at anthrax carcass sites, perhaps due to carcass-induced changes in soil composition that may deter dust bathing. Finally, despite observing some seasonal variation in dust bathing, preliminary evidence suggests that the seasonality of dust bathing and anthrax mortalities are not correlated. Thus, although dust bathing creates a dramatic cloud of aerosolized soil around an individual, our microbiologic, ecologic, and behavioral results in concert demonstrate that dust bathing is highly unlikely to transmit inhalational anthrax infections.

Seasonality and shift in age-specific malaria prevalence and incidence in Binko and Carrière villages close to the lake in Selingué, Mali.

Science.gov (United States)

Touré, Mahamoudou; Sanogo, Daouda; Dembele, Soumaila; Diawara, Sory Ibrahima; Oppfeldt, Karen; Schiøler, Karin L; Haidara, Dade Ben; Traoré, Sékou F; Alifrangis, Michael; Konradsen, Flemming; Doumbia, Seydou

2016-04-18

Malaria transmission in Mali is seasonal and peaks at the end of the rainy season in October. This study assessed the seasonal variations in the epidemiology of malaria among children under 10 years of age living in two villages in Selingué: Carrière, located along the Sankarani River but distant from the hydroelectric dam, and Binko, near irrigated rice fields, close to the dam. The aim of this study was to provide baseline data, seasonal pattern and age distribution of malaria incidence in two sites situated close to a lake in Selingué. Geographically, Selingué area is located in the basin of Sakanrani and belongs to the district of Yanfolila in the third administrative region of Mali, Sikasso. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in October 2010 (end of transmission season) and in July 2011 (beginning of transmission season) to determine the point prevalence of asymptomatic parasitaemia, and anaemia among the children. Cumulative incidence of malaria per month was determined in a cohort of 549 children through active and passive case detection from November 2010 through October 2011. The number of clinical episodes per year was determined among the children in the cohort. Logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for malaria. The prevalence of malaria parasitaemia varied significantly between villages with a strong seasonality in Carrière (52.0-18.9 % in October 2010 and July 2011, respectively) compared with Binko (29.8-23.8 % in October 2010 and July 2011, respectively). Children 6-9 years old were at least twice more likely to carry parasites than children up to 5 years old. For malaria incidence, 64.8-71.9 % of all children experienced at least one episode of clinical malaria in Binko and Carrière, respectively. The peak incidence was observed between August and October (end of the rainy season), but the incidence remained high until December. Surprisingly, the risk of clinical malaria was two- to nine-fold higher among

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: persistence under different control strategies and the role of the simuliid vectors.

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Poppy H L Lamberton

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The World Health Organization (WHO aims at eliminating onchocerciasis by 2020 in selected African countries. Current control focuses on community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI. In Ghana, persistent transmission has been reported despite long-term control. We present spatial and temporal patterns of onchocerciasis transmission in relation to ivermectin treatment history.Host-seeking and ovipositing blackflies were collected from seven villages in four regions of Ghana with 3-24 years of CDTI at the time of sampling. A total of 16,443 flies was analysed for infection; 5,812 (35.3% were dissected for parity (26.9% parous. Heads and thoraces of 12,196 flies were dissected for Onchocerca spp. and DNA from 11,122 abdomens was amplified using Onchocerca primers. A total of 463 larvae (0.03 larvae/fly from 97 (0.6% infected and 62 (0.4% infective flies was recorded; 258 abdomens (2.3% were positive for Onchocerca DNA. Infections (all were O. volvulus were more likely to be detected in ovipositing flies. Transmission occurred, mostly in the wet season, at Gyankobaa and Bosomase, with transmission potentials of, respectively, 86 and 422 L3/person/month after 3 and 6 years of CDTI. The numbers of L3/1,000 parous flies at these villages were over 100 times the WHO threshold of one L3/1,000 for transmission control. Vector species influenced transmission parameters. At Asubende, the number of L3/1,000 ovipositing flies (1.4, 95% CI = 0-4 also just exceeded the threshold despite extensive vector control and 24 years of ivermectin distribution, but there were no infective larvae in host-seeking flies.Despite repeated ivermectin treatment, evidence of O. volvulus transmission was documented in all seven villages and above the WHO threshold in two. Vector species influences transmission through biting and parous rates and vector competence, and should be included in transmission models. Oviposition traps could augment vector collector methods for

Transmission to interneurons is via slow excitatory synaptic potentials mediated by P2Y(1 receptors during descending inhibition in guinea-pig ileum.

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Peter D J Thornton

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The nature of synaptic transmission at functionally distinct synapses in intestinal reflex pathways has not been fully identified. In this study, we investigated whether transmission between interneurons in the descending inhibitory pathway is mediated by a purine acting at P2Y receptors to produce slow excitatory synaptic potentials (EPSPs. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Myenteric neurons from guinea-pig ileum in vitro were impaled with intracellular microelectrodes. Responses to distension 15 mm oral to the recording site, in a separately perfused stimulation chamber and to electrical stimulation of local nerve trunks were recorded. A subset of neurons, previously identified as nitric oxide synthase immunoreactive descending interneurons, responded to both stimuli with slow EPSPs that were reversibly abolished by a high concentration of PPADS (30 μM, P2 receptor antagonist. When added to the central chamber of a three chambered organ bath, PPADS concentration-dependently depressed transmission through that chamber of descending inhibitory reflexes, measured as inhibitory junction potentials in the circular muscle of the anal chamber. Reflexes evoked by distension in the central chamber were unaffected. A similar depression of transmission was seen when the specific P2Y(1 receptor antagonist MRS 2179 (10 μM was in the central chamber. Blocking either nicotinic receptors (hexamethonium 200 μM or 5-HT(3 receptors (granisetron 1 μM together with P2 receptors had no greater effect than blocking P2 receptors alone. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Slow EPSPs mediated by P2Y(1 receptors, play a primary role in transmission between descending interneurons of the inhibitory reflexes in the guinea-pig ileum. This is the first demonstration for a primary role of excitatory metabotropic receptors in physiological transmission at a functionally identified synapse.

Identification of sheep ovary genes potentially associated with off-season reproduction.

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Chen, Lei; Liu, Ka; Zhao, Zongsheng; Blair, Hugh T; Zhang, Peng; Li, Daquan; Ma, Runlin Z

2012-04-20

Off-season reproduction is a favorable economic trait for sheep industry. Hu sheep, an indigenous Chinese sheep breed, demonstrates a higher productivity of lambs and displays year-around oestrous behavior under proper nutrition and environment. The genetic basis behind these traits, however, is not well understood. In order to identify genes associated with the off-season reproduction, we constructed a suppression subtractive hybridization (SSH) cDNA library using pooled ovary mRNAs of 6 oestrous Hu females as a tester and the pooled ovary mRNAs of 6 non-oestrous Chinese Merino females as a driver. A total of 382 resulting positive clones were obtained after the SSH. We identified 114 differentially up-regulated genes in oestrous Hu sheep by using subsequent screening and DNA sequencing, of which 8 were previously known, 93 were reported for the first time in sheep, and 13 were novel with no significant homology to any sequence in the DNA databases. Functions of the genes identified are related to cell division, signal transduction, structure, metabolism, or cell defense. To validate the results of SSH, 6 genes (Ntrk2, Ppap2b, Htra1, Nid1, Serpine2 and Foxola) were selected for conformational analysis using quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR), and two of them (Htral and Foxo1a) were verified by Northern blot. All of the 6 genes were differentially up-regulated in the ovary of oestrous Hu. It is obvious that off-season reproduction is a complex trait involving multiple genes in multiple organs. This study helps to provide a foundation for the final identification of functional genes involved in the sheep ovary. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Secular and seasonal trends of Neospora abortion in California dairy cows.

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Thurmond, M C; Anderson, M L; Blanchard, P C

1995-06-01

This study was undertaken to determine if the proportion of dairy cow abortions attributable to Neospora sp. infection increased or occurred in a seasonal cycle during a 6-yr period. Abortions caused by Neospora sp. were tallied for all fetuses submitted to the Tulare branch of the California Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory between January 1985 and December 1990. Regression analysis of 221 cases of Neospora among 762 fetuses submitted showed a weak increasing secular trend (P = 0.053, r2 = 0.05), with predicted monthly proportions at the beginning and end of the 6 yr of 0.16 and 0.33, respectively. Using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type statistic, comparison of the 12-mo distribution of Neospora sp. cases and a hypothetical distribution of cows at risk of aborting found about 16% of variation in cases was attributable to season (P fall. Results indicate that Neospora sp. abortion in California dairy cows is not new or recently emerging and that seasonally related factors influence some of the risk of abortion. Results suggest that Neospora sp. has contributed to the high dairy cow abortion rate for many years, and that seasonally varying exposures may predispose to transmission or recrudescence of infection.

Guinea pig model for evaluating the potential public health risk of swine and avian influenza viruses.

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Yipeng Sun

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The influenza viruses circulating in animals sporadically transmit to humans and pose pandemic threats. Animal models to evaluate the potential public health risk potential of these viruses are needed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated the guinea pig as a mammalian model for the study of the replication and transmission characteristics of selected swine H1N1, H1N2, H3N2 and avian H9N2 influenza viruses, compared to those of pandemic (H1N1 2009 and seasonal human H1N1, H3N2 influenza viruses. The swine and avian influenza viruses investigated were restricted to the respiratory system of guinea pigs and shed at high titers in nasal tracts without prior adaptation, similar to human strains. None of the swine and avian influenza viruses showed transmissibility among guinea pigs; in contrast, pandemic (H1N1 2009 virus transmitted from infected guinea pigs to all animals and seasonal human influenza viruses could also horizontally transmit in guinea pigs. The analysis of the receptor distribution in the guinea pig respiratory tissues by lectin histochemistry indicated that both SAα2,3-Gal and SAα2,6-Gal receptors widely presented in the nasal tract and the trachea, while SAα2,3-Gal receptor was the main receptor in the lung. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We propose that the guinea pig could serve as a useful mammalian model to evaluate the potential public health threat of swine and avian influenza viruses.

Malaria transmission dynamics at a site in northern Ghana proposed for testing malaria vaccines.

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Appawu, Maxwell; Owusu-Agyei, Seth; Dadzie, Samuel; Asoala, Victor; Anto, Francis; Koram, Kwadwo; Rogers, William; Nkrumah, Francis; Hoffman, Stephen L; Fryauff, David J

2004-01-01

We studied the malaria transmission dynamics in Kassena Nankana district (KND), a site in northern Ghana proposed for testing malaria vaccines. Intensive mosquito sampling for 1 year using human landing catches in three micro-ecological sites (irrigated, lowland and rocky highland) yielded 18 228 mosquitoes. Anopheles gambiae s.l. and Anopheles funestus constituted 94.3% of the total collection with 76.8% captured from the irrigated communities. Other species collected but in relatively few numbers were Anopheles pharoensis (5.4%) and Anopheles rufipes (0.3%). Molecular analysis of 728 An. gambiae.s.l. identified Anopheles gambiae s.s. as the most dominant sibling species (97.7%) of the An. gambiae complex from the three ecological sites. Biting rates of the vectors (36.7 bites per man per night) were significantly higher (P<0.05) in the irrigated area than in the non-irrigated lowland (5.2) and rocky highlands (5.9). Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite rates of 7.2% (295/4075) and 7.1% (269/3773) were estimated for An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus, respectively. Transmission was highly seasonal, and the heaviest transmission occurred from June to October. The intensity of transmission was higher for people in the irrigated communities than the non-irrigated ones. An overall annual entomological inoculation rate (EIR) of 418 infective bites was estimated in KND. There were micro-ecological variations in the EIRs, with values of 228 infective bites in the rocky highlands, 360 in the lowlands and 630 in the irrigated area. Approximately 60% of malaria transmission in KND occurred indoors during the second half of the night, peaking at daybreak between 04.00 and 06.00 hours. Vaccine trials could be conducted in this district, with timing dependent on the seasonal patterns and intensity of transmission taking into consideration the micro-geographical differences and vaccine trial objectives.

Behaviors, movements, and transmission of droplet-mediated respiratory diseases during transcontinental airline flights.

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Hertzberg, Vicki Stover; Weiss, Howard; Elon, Lisa; Si, Wenpei; Norris, Sharon L

2018-04-03

With over 3 billion airline passengers annually, the inflight transmission of infectious diseases is an important global health concern. Over a dozen cases of inflight transmission of serious infections have been documented, and air travel can serve as a conduit for the rapid spread of newly emerging infections and pandemics. Despite sensational media stories and anecdotes, the risks of transmission of respiratory viruses in an airplane cabin are unknown. Movements of passengers and crew may facilitate disease transmission. On 10 transcontinental US flights, we chronicled behaviors and movements of individuals in the economy cabin on single-aisle aircraft. We simulated transmission during flight based on these data. Our results indicate there is low probability of direct transmission to passengers not seated in close proximity to an infectious passenger. This data-driven, dynamic network transmission model of droplet-mediated respiratory disease is unique. To measure the true pathogen burden, our team collected 229 environmental samples during the flights. Although eight flights were during Influenza season, all qPCR assays for 18 common respiratory viruses were negative. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Parasite transmission in a natural multihost-multiparasite community.

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Auld, Stuart K J R; Searle, Catherine L; Duffy, Meghan A

2017-05-05

Understanding the transmission and dynamics of infectious diseases in natural communities requires understanding the extent to which the ecology, evolution and epidemiology of those diseases are shaped by alternative hosts. We performed laboratory experiments to test how parasite spillover affected traits associated with transmission in two co-occurring parasites: the bacterium Pasteuria ramosa and the fungus Metschnikowia bicuspidata Both parasites were capable of transmission from the reservoir host ( Daphnia dentifera ) to the spillover host ( Ceriodaphnia dubia ), but this occurred at a much higher rate for the fungus than the bacterium. We quantified transmission potential by combining information on parasite transmission and growth rate, and used this to compare parasite fitness in the two host species. For both parasites, transmission potential was lower in the spillover host. For the bacterium, virulence was higher in the spillover host. Transmission back to the original host was high for both parasites, with spillover influencing transmission rate of the fungus but not the bacterium. Thus, while inferior, the spillover host is not a dead-end for either parasite. Overall, our results demonstrate that the presence of multiple hosts in a community can have important consequences for disease transmission, and host and parasite fitness.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Seasonality in the Austrian Economy: Common Seasonals and Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Kunst, Robert M.

1992-01-01

Abstract: Seasonal cointegration generalizes the idea of cointegration to processes with unit roots at frequencies different from 0. Here, also the dual notion of common trends, "common seasonals", is adopted for the seasonal case. Using a five-variable macroeconomic core system of the Austrian economy, it is demonstrated how common seasonals and seasonal cointegrating vectors look in practice. Statistical tests provide clear evidence on seasonal cointegration in the system. However, it is sh...

Estimating Aquifer Transmissivity Using the Recession-Curve-Displacement Method in Tanzania’s Kilombero Valley

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William Senkondo

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Information on aquifer processes and characteristics across scales has long been a cornerstone for understanding water resources. However, point measurements are often limited in extent and representativeness. Techniques that increase the support scale (footprint of measurements or leverage existing observations in novel ways can thus be useful. In this study, we used a recession-curve-displacement method to estimate regional-scale aquifer transmissivity (T from streamflow records across the Kilombero Valley of Tanzania. We compare these estimates to local-scale estimates made from pumping tests across the Kilombero Valley. The median T from the pumping tests was 0.18 m2/min. This was quite similar to the median T estimated from the recession-curve-displacement method applied during the wet season for the entire basin (0.14 m2/min and for one of the two sub-basins tested (0.16 m2/min. On the basis of our findings, there appears to be reasonable potential to inform water resource management and hydrologic model development through streamflow-derived transmissivity estimates, which is promising for data-limited environments facing rapid development, such as the Kilombero Valley.

High mean water vapour pressure promotes the transmission of bacillary dysentery.

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Guo-Zheng Li

Full Text Available Bacillary dysentery is an infectious disease caused by Shigella dysenteriae, which has a seasonal distribution. External environmental factors, including climate, play a significant role in its transmission. This paper identifies climate-related risk factors and their role in bacillary dysentery transmission. Harbin, in northeast China, with a temperate climate, and Quzhou, in southern China, with a subtropical climate, are chosen as the study locations. The least absolute shrinkage and selectionator operator is applied to select relevant climate factors involved in the transmission of bacillary dysentery. Based on the selected relevant climate factors and incidence rates, an AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA model is established successfully as a time series prediction model. The numerical results demonstrate that the mean water vapour pressure over the previous month results in a high relative risk for bacillary dysentery transmission in both cities, and the ARIMA model can successfully perform such a prediction. These results provide better explanations for the relationship between climate factors and bacillary dysentery transmission than those put forth in other studies that use only correlation coefficients or fitting models. The findings in this paper demonstrate that the mean water vapour pressure over the previous month is an important predictor for the transmission of bacillary dysentery.

Reaction rate calculations via transmission coefficients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feit, M.D.; Alder, B.J.

1985-01-01

The transmission coefficient of a wavepacket traversing a potential barrier can be determined by steady state calculations carried out in imaginary time instead of by real time dynamical calculations. The general argument is verified for the Eckart barrier potential by a comparison of transmission coefficients calculated from real and imaginary time solutions of the Schroedinger equation. The correspondence demonstrated here allows a formulation for the reaction rate that avoids difficulties due to both rare events and explicitly time dependent calculations. 5 refs., 2 figs

Cohort study of the seasonal effect on nasal carriage and the presence of Mycobacterium leprae in an endemic area in the general population.

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Lavania, M; Turankar, R P; Karri, S; Chaitanya, V S; Sengupta, U; Jadhav, R S

2013-10-01

Leprosy continues to be a significant health problem in certain pockets in developing countries. Better understanding of the transmission and source of the infection would help to decipher the transmission link, leading to control of the spread of the disease. The nose is considered to be a portal of entry, suggesting an aerial route for transmission through droplet infection. The evidence suggests that many individuals from endemic countries carry Mycobacterium leprae in their nasal cavities without having obvious symptoms of leprosy. The objective of the present study was to assess the presence of M. leprae on the nasal mucosa in the general population from a leprosy-endemic pocket. M. leprae detection was carried out using PCR targeting RLEP. Four hundred subjects from an area highly endemic for leprosy were included in the study and followed up during three different seasons--winter, summer, and monsoon--for evidence of nasal exposure to M. leprae. PCR positivity for M. leprae was observed in 29%, 21% and 31% of the samples collected in winter, summer and the monsoon season, respectively. Twenty-six individuals from the cohort showed amplification for M. leprae for all seasons. Our results are consistent with reports in the literature showing widespread exposure to M. leprae in the endemic community. The results also suggest possible association of the environmental conditions (climate) with the transmission pattern and levels of exposure to M. leprae. However, the present study indicated that the population from highly endemic pockets will have exposure to M. leprae irrespective of season. © 2012 The Authors Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2012 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

A longitudinal study investigating the prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus genotype B in seasonally communal dairy herds.

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Voelk, V; Graber, H U; van den Borne, B H P; Sartori, C; Steiner, A; Bodmer, M; Haerdi-Landerer, M C

2014-07-01

Staphylococcus aureus is a major mastitis-causing pathogen. Various genotypes have been recently identified in Switzerland but Staph. aureus genotype B (GTB) was the only genotype associated with high within-herd prevalence. The risk of introducing this Staph. aureus genotype into a herd may be increased by frequent animal movements. This may also be the case when cows from different herds of origin are commingled and share their milking equipment for a limited period of time. The aim of the present study was to determine the prevalence of Staph. aureus GTB in seasonally communal dairy herds before and after a summer period when dairy farming is characterized by mixing cows from different herds of origin in 1 communal operation. In addition, the environment was investigated to identify potential Staph. aureus GTB reservoirs relevant for transmission of the disease. A total of 829 cows from 110 herds of origin in 9 communal operations were included in the study. Composite milk samples were collected from all cows during the first or second milking after arrival at the communal operation and again shortly before the end of the season. Swab samples from the environment, involved personnel, and herding dogs present were collected before the cows arrived. At the end of the season, sampling of personnel was repeated. All samples were analyzed for the presence of Staph. aureus GTB using an established quantitative PCR. At the beginning of the season, Staph. aureus GTB-positive cows were identified in 7 out of 9 communal operations and the within-communal operation prevalence ranged from 2.2 to 38.9%. At the second sampling, all communal operations were Staph. aureus GTB positive, showing within-communal operation prevalence from 1 to 72.1%. The between-herd of origin prevalence increased from 27.3 to 56.6% and the cow-level prevalence increased from 11.2% at the beginning of the season to 29.6% at the end of the season. On 3 different communal operations, Staph. aureus

Seasonality constraints to livestock grazing intensity.

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Fetzel, Tamara; Havlik, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Erb, Karl-Heinz

2017-04-01

Increasing food production is essential to meet the future food demand of a growing world population. In light of pressing sustainability challenges such as climate change and the importance of the global livestock system for food security as well as GHG emissions, finding ways to increasing food production sustainably and without increasing competition for food crops is essential. Yet, many unknowns relate to livestock grazing, in particular grazing intensity, an essential variable to assess the sustainability of livestock systems. Here, we explore ecological limits to grazing intensity (GI; i.e. the fraction of net primary production consumed by grazing animals) by analysing the role of seasonality in natural grasslands. We estimate seasonal limitations to GI by combining monthly net primary production data and a map of global livestock distribution with assumptions on the length of nonfavourable periods that can be bridged by livestock (e.g. by browsing dead standing biomass, storage systems or biomass conservation). This allows us to derive a seasonality-limited potential GI, which we compare with the GI prevailing in 2000. We find that GI in 2000 lies below its potential on 39% of the total global natural grasslands, which has a potential for increasing biomass extraction of up to 181 MtC/yr. In contrast, on 61% of the area GI exceeds the potential, made possible by management. Mobilizing this potential could increase milk production by 5%, meat production by 4% or contribute to free up to 2.8 Mio km² of grassland area at the global scale if the numerous socio-ecological constraints can be overcome. We discuss socio-ecological trade-offs, which may reduce the estimated potential considerably and require the establishment of sound monitoring systems and an improved understanding of livestock system's role in the Earth system. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Host social organization and mating system shape parasite transmission opportunities in three European bat species.

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van Schaik, J; Kerth, G

2017-02-01

For non-mobile parasites living on social hosts, infection dynamics are strongly influenced by host life history and social system. We explore the impact of host social systems on parasite population dynamics by comparing the infection intensity and transmission opportunities of three mite species of the genus Spinturnix across their three European bat hosts (Myotis daubentonii, Myotis myotis, Myotis nattereri) during the bats' autumn mating season. Mites mainly reproduce in host maternity colonies in summer, but as these colonies are closed, opportunities for inter-colony transmission are limited to host interactions during the autumn mating season. The three investigated hosts differ considerably in their social system, most notably in maternity colony size, mating system, and degree of male summer aggregation. We observed marked differences in parasite infection during the autumn mating period between the species, closely mirroring the predictions made based on the social systems of the hosts. Increased host aggregation sizes in summer yielded higher overall parasite prevalence and intensity, both in male and female hosts. Moreover, parasite levels in male hosts differentially increased throughout the autumn mating season in concordance with the degree of contact with female hosts afforded by the different mating systems of the hosts. Critically, the observed host-specific differences have important consequences for parasite population structure and will thus affect the coevolutionary dynamics between the interacting species. Therefore, in order to accurately characterize host-parasite dynamics in hosts with complex social systems, a holistic approach that investigates parasite infection and transmission across all periods is warranted.

Transmission potential of Zika virus infection in the South Pacific

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Hiroshi Nishiura

2016-04-01

Conclusions: The transmissibility of Zika virus infection appears to be comparable to those of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Considering that Aedes species are a shared vector, this finding indicates that Zika virus replication within the vector is perhaps comparable to dengue and chikungunya.

Temporal and seasonal variations of black carbon in a highly polluted European city: Apportionment of potential sources and the effect of meteorological conditions.

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Kucbel, Marek; Corsaro, Agnieszka; Švédová, Barbora; Raclavská, Helena; Raclavský, Konstantin; Juchelková, Dagmar

2017-12-01

Black carbon - a primary component of particulate matter emitted from an incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biomass, and biofuels - has been found to have a detrimental effect on human health and the environment. Since black carbon emissions data are not readily available, no measures are implemented to reduce black carbon emissions. The temporal and seasonal variations of black carbon concentrations were evaluated during 2012-2014. The data were collected in the highly polluted European city - Ostrava, Czech Republic, surrounded by major highways and large industries. Significantly higher black carbon concentrations were obtained in Ostrava, relative to other European cities and the magnitude was equivalent to the magnitude of black carbon concentrations measured in Poland and China. The data were categorized to heating and non-heating seasons based on the periodic pattern of daily and monthly average concentrations of black carbon. A higher black carbon concentration was obtained during heating season than non-heating season and was primarily associated with an increase in residential coal burning and meteorological parameters. The concentration of black carbon was found to be negatively correlated with temperature and wind speed, and positively correlated with the relative humidity. Other black carbon sources potentially included emissions from vehicle exhaust and the local steel-producing industry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal superoxide overproduction and endothelial activation in guinea-pig heart; seasonal oxidative stress in rats and humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Konior, Anna; Klemenska, Emilia; Brudek, Magdalena; Podolecka, Ewa; Czarnowska, Elżbieta; Beręsewicz, Andrzej

2011-04-01

Seasonality in endothelial dysfunction and oxidative stress was noted in humans and rats, suggesting it is a common phenomenon of a potential clinical relevance. We aimed at studying (i) seasonal variations in cardiac superoxide (O(2)(-)) production in rodents and in 8-isoprostane urinary excretion in humans, (ii) the mechanism of cardiac O(2)(-) overproduction occurring in late spring/summer months in rodents, (iii) whether this seasonal O(2)(-)-overproduction is associated with a pro-inflammatory endothelial activation, and (iv) how the summer-associated changes compare to those caused by diabetes, a classical cardiovascular risk factor. Langendorff-perfused guinea-pig and rat hearts generated ~100% more O(2)(-), and human subjects excreted 65% more 8-isoprostane in the summer vs. other seasons. Inhibitors of NADPH oxidase, xanthine oxidase, and NO synthase inhibited the seasonal O(2)(-)-overproduction. In the summer vs. other seasons, cardiac NADPH oxidase and xanthine oxidase activity, and protein expression were increased, the endothelial NO synthase and superoxide dismutases were downregulated, and, in guinea-pig hearts, adhesion molecules upregulation and the endothelial glycocalyx destruction associated these changes. In guinea-pig hearts, the summer and a streptozotocin-induced diabetes mediated similar changes, yet, more severe endothelial activation associated the diabetes. These findings suggest that the seasonal oxidative stress is a common phenomenon, associated, at least in guinea-pigs, with the endothelial activation. Nonetheless, its biological meaning (regulatory vs. deleterious) remains unclear. Upregulated NADPH oxidase and xanthine oxidase and uncoupled NO synthase are the sources of the seasonal O(2)(-)-overproduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The reporting of theoretical health risks by the media: Canadian newspaper reporting of potential blood transmission of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

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Ahmad Nadya

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The media play an important role at the interface of science and policy by communicating scientific information to the public and policy makers. In issues of theoretical risk, in which there is scientific uncertainty, the media's role as disseminators of information is particularly important due to the potential to influence public perception of the severity of the risk. In this article we describe how the Canadian print media reported the theoretical risk of blood transmission of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD. Methods We searched 3 newspaper databases for articles published by 6 major Canadian daily newspapers between January 1990 and December 1999. We identified all articles relating to blood transmission of CJD. In duplicate we extracted information from the articles and entered the information into a qualitative software program. We compared the observations obtained from this content analysis with information obtained from a previous policy analysis examining the Canadian blood system's decision-making concerning the potential transfusion transmission of CJD. Results Our search identified 245 relevant articles. We observed that newspapers in one instance accelerated a policy decision, which had important resource and health implication, by communicating information on risk to the public. We also observed that newspapers primarily relied upon expert opinion (47 articles as opposed to published medical evidence (28 articles when communicating risk information. Journalists we interviewed described the challenges of balancing their responsibility to raise awareness of potential health threats with not unnecessarily arousing fear amongst the public. Conclusions Based on our findings we recommend that journalists report information from both expert opinion sources and from published studies when communicating information on risk. We also recommend researchers work more closely with journalists to assist them in identifying

Potential for Zika virus introduction and transmission in resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region: a modelling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bogoch, Isaac I; Brady, Oliver J; Kraemer, Moritz U G; German, Matthew; Creatore, Maria I; Brent, Shannon; Watts, Alexander G; Hay, Simon I; Kulkarni, Manisha A; Brownstein, John S; Khan, Kamran

2016-11-01

As the epidemic of Zika virus expands in the Americas, countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are becoming increasingly susceptible to the importation and possible local spread of the virus. To support public health readiness, we aim to identify regions and times where the potential health, economic, and social effects from Zika virus are greatest, focusing on resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Our model combined transportation network analysis, ecological modelling of mosquito occurrences, and vector competence for flavivirus transmission, using data from the International Air Transport Association, entomological observations from Zika's primary vector species, and climate conditions using WorldClim. We overlaid monthly flows of airline travellers arriving to Africa and the Asia-Pacific region from areas of the Americas suitable for year-round transmission of Zika virus with monthly maps of climatic suitability for mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus within Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. An estimated 2·6 billion people live in areas of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region where the presence of competent mosquito vectors and suitable climatic conditions could support local transmission of Zika virus. Countries with large volumes of travellers arriving from Zika virus-affected areas of the Americas and large populations at risk of mosquito-borne Zika virus infection include India (67 422 travellers arriving per year; 1·2 billion residents in potential Zika transmission areas), China (238 415 travellers; 242 million residents), Indonesia (13 865 travellers; 197 million residents), Philippines (35 635 travellers; 70 million residents), and Thailand (29 241 travellers; 59 million residents). Many countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are vulnerable to Zika virus. Strategic use of available health and human resources is essential to prevent or mitigate the health, economic, and social

Parasite transmission in a natural multihost–multiparasite community

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

Understanding the transmission and dynamics of infectious diseases in natural communities requires understanding the extent to which the ecology, evolution and epidemiology of those diseases are shaped by alternative hosts. We performed laboratory experiments to test how parasite spillover affected traits associated with transmission in two co-occurring parasites: the bacterium Pasteuria ramosa and the fungus Metschnikowia bicuspidata. Both parasites were capable of transmission from the reservoir host (Daphnia dentifera) to the spillover host (Ceriodaphnia dubia), but this occurred at a much higher rate for the fungus than the bacterium. We quantified transmission potential by combining information on parasite transmission and growth rate, and used this to compare parasite fitness in the two host species. For both parasites, transmission potential was lower in the spillover host. For the bacterium, virulence was higher in the spillover host. Transmission back to the original host was high for both parasites, with spillover influencing transmission rate of the fungus but not the bacterium. Thus, while inferior, the spillover host is not a dead-end for either parasite. Overall, our results demonstrate that the presence of multiple hosts in a community can have important consequences for disease transmission, and host and parasite fitness. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’. PMID:28289264

Chronic Plasmodium falciparum infections in an area of low intensity malaria transmission in the Sudan

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hamad, A A; El Hassan, I M; El Khalifa, A A

2000-01-01

Chronic Plasmodium falciparum malaria infections in a Sudanese village, in an area of seasonal and unstable malaria transmission, were monitored and genetically characterized to study the influence of persistent infection on the immunology and epidemiology of low endemicity malaria. During...... the October-December malaria season of 1996, 51 individuals out of a population of 420 had confirmed and treated P. falciparum malaria in the village of Daraweesh in eastern Sudan. In a cross-sectional survey carried out in December 1996, an additional 6 individuals were found to harbour a microscopically...

Potential risk of viral transmission from flying foxes to domestic animals and humans on the southern coast of West Java, Indonesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Basri, Chaerul; Arifin, Eko Muhammad Zainal; Takemae, Hitoshi; Hengjan, Yupadee; Iida, Keisuke; Sudarnika, Etih; Zahid, Abdul; Soejoedono, Retno Damayanti; Susetya, Heru; Sumiarto, Bambang; Kobayashi, Ryosuke; Agungpriyono, Srihadi; Hondo, Eiichi

2017-09-29

Flying foxes have been considered to be involved in the transmission of serious infectious diseases to humans. Using questionnaires, we aimed to determine the direct and/or indirect contacts of flying foxes in an Indonesian nature conservation area with domestic animals and humans living in the surrounding area. We surveyed 150 residents of 10 villages in West Java. Villages were classified into 3 groups: inside and/or within 1 km from the outer border of the conservation area and 1-5 km or 5-10 km away from the reserve's outer border. Data were collected by direct interview using a structured questionnaire consisting of the respondent characteristics (age, sex and occupation); histories of contacts between flying foxes and humans, dogs and other domestic animals; and knowledge about infectious diseases, mainly rabies, in flying foxes. We found that flying foxes from the nature conservation area often enter residential areas at night to look for food, especially during the fruit season. In these residential areas, flying foxes had direct contacts with humans and a few contacts with domestic animals, especially dogs. People who encounter flying foxes seldom used personal protective equipment, such as leather gloves, goggles and caps. The residents living around the conservation area mostly had poor knowledge about flying foxes and disease transmission. This situation shows that the population in this region is at a quite high risk for contracting infectious diseases from flying foxes.

Electron transmission through a periodically driven graphene magnetic barrier

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Biswas, R., E-mail: rbiswas.pkc@gmail.com [Department of Physics, P. K. College, Contai, Purba Medinipur, West Bengal – 721401 (India); Maiti, S. [Ajodhya Hills G.S.A.T High School, Ajodhya, Purulia, West Bengal – 723152 (India); Mukhopadhyay, S. [Purulia Zilla School, Dulmi Nadiha, Purulia, West Bengal – 723102 (India); Sinha, C. [Department of Physics, P. K. College, Contai, Purba Medinipur, West Bengal – 721401 (India); Department of Theoretical Physics, Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science, Jadavpur – 700032 (India)

2017-05-10

Electronic transport through graphene magnetic barriers is studied theoretically in presence of an external time harmonic scalar potential in the framework of non-perturbative Landau–Floquet Formalism. The oscillating field mostly suppresses the transmission for rectangular magnetic barrier structure and exhibits the Fano resonance for multiphoton processes due to the presence of bound state inside the barrier. While, for a pair of delta function barriers of larger separation, the oscillating potential suppresses the usual Fabry–Perot oscillations in the transmission and a new type of asymmetric Fano resonance is noted for smaller separation, occurring due to extended states between the barriers. - Highlights: • Tunnelling of the Dirac Fermions through oscillating pure magnetic barriers is reported for the first time. • The high energy transmission through a graphene magnetic barrier is suppressed by the application of time periodic modulation. • Suppression of the Fabry Perot transmission is noted due to the application of an external time harmonic potential. • Two kinds of the Fano resonances are noted in transmission through a pair of modulated δ-function magnetic barriers.

Seasonal AVS-SEM relationship in sediments and potential bioavailability of metals in industrialized estuary, southeastern Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Nizoli, Erico Casare; Luiz-Silva, Wanilson

2012-04-01

In anoxic sediments, as those found in estuaries, the mobility of metals can be controlled by the formation of stable sulfide complexes. The potential bioavailability of a metal can then be predicted on the basis of the acid volatile sulfide (AVS) and simultaneously extracted metals (SEM) criterion. Distributions of AVS and SEM (Hg, Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn, and Ni) along the sediment profiles were determined seasonally for three rivers that constitute the Santos-Cubatão estuarine system (SE Brazil), which is located in one of the most industrialized areas of Latin America. AVS and SEM concentrations varied significantly, from 0.04 to 31.9 μmol g(-1) and 0.086-6.659 μmol g(-1), respectively. The highest AVS levels in sediments were detected in the winter, whereas high SEM values predominated in the summer. Considering SEM-AVS molar differences as a parameter to evaluate potential bioavailability, sediments nearest to the industrial area represent higher risk to biota, especially during the summer. It is due to relatively low AVS values and not necessarily high concentrations of metals.

Potential geographic "hotspots" for drug-injection related transmission of HIV and HCV and for initiation into injecting drug use in New York City, 2011-2015, with implications for the current opioid epidemic in the US.

Science.gov (United States)

Des Jarlais, D C; Cooper, H L F; Arasteh, K; Feelemyer, J; McKnight, C; Ross, Z

2018-01-01

We identified potential geographic "hotspots" for drug-injecting transmission of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among persons who inject drugs (PWID) in New York City. The HIV epidemic among PWID is currently in an "end of the epidemic" stage, while HCV is in a continuing, high prevalence (> 50%) stage. We recruited 910 PWID entering Mount Sinai Beth Israel substance use treatment programs from 2011-2015. Structured interviews and HIV/ HCV testing were conducted. Residential ZIP codes were used as geographic units of analysis. Potential "hotspots" for HIV and HCV transmission were defined as 1) having relatively large numbers of PWID 2) having 2 or more HIV (or HCV) seropositive PWID reporting transmission risk-passing on used syringes to others, and 3) having 2 or more HIV (or HCV) seronegative PWID reporting acquisition risk-injecting with previously used needles/syringes. Hotspots for injecting drug use initiation were defined as ZIP codes with 5 or more persons who began injecting within the previous 6 years. Among PWID, 96% injected heroin, 81% male, 34% White, 15% African-American, 47% Latinx, mean age 40 (SD = 10), 7% HIV seropositive, 62% HCV seropositive. Participants resided in 234 ZIP codes. No ZIP codes were identified as potential hotspots due to small numbers of HIV seropositive PWID reporting transmission risk. Four ZIP codes were identified as potential hotspots for HCV transmission. 12 ZIP codes identified as hotspots for injecting drug use initiation. For HIV, the lack of potential hotspots is further validation of widespread effectiveness of efforts to reduce injecting-related HIV transmission. Injecting-related HIV transmission is likely to be a rare, random event. HCV prevention efforts should include focus on potential hotspots for transmission and on hotspots for initiation into injecting drug use. We consider application of methods for the current opioid epidemic in the US.

Vulnerability of native savanna trees and exotic Khaya senegalensis to seasonal drought.

Science.gov (United States)

Arndt, Stefan K; Sanders, Gregor J; Bristow, Mila; Hutley, Lindsay B; Beringer, Jason; Livesley, Stephen J

2015-07-01

Seasonally dry ecosystems present a challenge to plants to maintain water relations. While native vegetation in seasonally dry ecosystems have evolved specific adaptations to the long dry season, there are risks to introduced exotic species. African mahogany, Khaya senegalensis Desr. (A. Juss.), is an exotic plantation species that has been introduced widely in Asia and northern Australia, but it is unknown if it has the physiological or phenotypic plasticity to cope with the strongly seasonal patterns of water availability in the tropical savanna climate of northern Australia. We investigated the gas exchange and water relations traits and adjustments to seasonal drought in K. senegalensis and native eucalypts (Eucalyptus tetrodonta F. Muell. and Corymbia latifolia F. Muell.) in a savanna ecosystem in northern Australia. The native eucalypts did not exhibit any signs of drought stress after 3 months of no rainfall and probably had access to deeper soil moisture late into the dry season. Leaf water potential, stomatal conductance, transpiration and photosynthesis all remained high in the dry season but osmotic adjustment was not observed. Overstorey leaf area index (LAI) was 0.6 in the native eucalypt savanna and did not change between wet and dry seasons. In contrast, the K. senegalensis plantation in the wet season was characterized by a high water potential, high stomatal conductance and transpiration and a high LAI of 2.4. In the dry season, K. senegalensis experienced mild drought stress with a predawn water potential -0.6 MPa. Overstorey LAI was halved, and stomatal conductance and transpiration drastically reduced, while minimum leaf water potentials did not change (-2 MPa) and no osmotic adjustment occurred. Khaya senegalensis exhibited an isohydric behaviour and also had a lower hydraulic vulnerability to cavitation in leaves, with a P50 of -2.3 MPa. The native eucalypts had twice the maximum leaf hydraulic conductance but a much higher P50 of -1.5 MPa

Transmission characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: comparison of 8 Southern hemisphere countries.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lulla Opatowski

2011-09-01

Full Text Available While in Northern hemisphere countries, the pandemic H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm was introduced outside of the typical influenza season, Southern hemisphere countries experienced a single wave of transmission during their 2009 winter season. This provides a unique opportunity to compare the spread of a single virus in different countries and study the factors influencing its transmission. Here, we estimate and compare transmission characteristics of H1N1pdm for eight Southern hemisphere countries/states: Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa and Victoria (Australia. Weekly incidence of cases and age-distribution of cumulative cases were extracted from public reports of countries' surveillance systems. Estimates of the reproduction numbers, R(0, empirically derived from the country-epidemics' early exponential phase, were positively associated with the proportion of children in the populations (p = 0.004. To explore the role of demography in explaining differences in transmission intensity, we then fitted a dynamic age-structured model of influenza transmission to available incidence data for each country independently, and for all the countries simultaneously. Posterior median estimates of R₀ ranged 1.2-1.8 for the country-specific fits, and 1.29-1.47 for the global fits. Corresponding estimates for overall attack-rate were in the range 20-50%. All model fits indicated a significant decrease in susceptibility to infection with age. These results confirm the transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus was relatively low compared with past pandemics. The pattern of age-dependent susceptibility found confirms that older populations had substantial--though partial--pre-existing immunity, presumably due to exposure to heterologous influenza strains. Our analysis indicates that between-country-differences in transmission were at least partly due to differences in population demography.

Spatial and temporal clustering of dengue virus transmission in Thai villages.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mammen P Mammen

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV, the leading cause of arboviral disease worldwide, is known to vary through time and space, likely owing to a combination of factors related to the human host, virus, mosquito vector, and environment. An improved understanding of variation in transmission patterns is fundamental to conducting surveillance and implementing disease prevention strategies. To test the hypothesis that DENV transmission is spatially and temporally focal, we compared geographic and temporal characteristics within Thai villages where DENV are and are not being actively transmitted.Cluster investigations were conducted within 100 m of homes where febrile index children with (positive clusters and without (negative clusters acute dengue lived during two seasons of peak DENV transmission. Data on human infection and mosquito infection/density were examined to precisely (1 define the spatial and temporal dimensions of DENV transmission, (2 correlate these factors with variation in DENV transmission, and (3 determine the burden of inapparent and symptomatic infections. Among 556 village children enrolled as neighbors of 12 dengue-positive and 22 dengue-negative index cases, all 27 DENV infections (4.9% of enrollees occurred in positive clusters (p < 0.01; attributable risk [AR] = 10.4 per 100; 95% confidence interval 1-19.8 per 100]. In positive clusters, 12.4% of enrollees became infected in a 15-d period and DENV infections were aggregated centrally near homes of index cases. As only 1 of 217 pairs of serologic specimens tested in positive clusters revealed a recent DENV infection that occurred prior to cluster initiation, we attribute the observed DENV transmission subsequent to cluster investigation to recent DENV transmission activity. Of the 1,022 female adult Ae. aegypti collected, all eight (0.8% dengue-infected mosquitoes came from houses in positive clusters; none from control clusters or schools. Distinguishing features between

Nipah virus transmission in a hamster model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emmie de Wit

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Based on epidemiological data, it is believed that human-to-human transmission plays an important role in Nipah virus outbreaks. No experimental data are currently available on the potential routes of human-to-human transmission of Nipah virus. In a first dose-finding experiment in Syrian hamsters, it was shown that Nipah virus was predominantly shed via the respiratory tract within nasal and oropharyngeal secretions. Although Nipah viral RNA was detected in urogenital and rectal swabs, no infectious virus was recovered from these samples, suggesting no viable virus was shed via these routes. In addition, hamsters inoculated with high doses shed significantly higher amounts of viable Nipah virus particles in comparison with hamsters infected with lower inoculum doses. Using the highest inoculum dose, three potential routes of Nipah virus transmission were investigated in the hamster model: transmission via fomites, transmission via direct contact and transmission via aerosols. It was demonstrated that Nipah virus is transmitted efficiently via direct contact and inefficiently via fomites, but not via aerosols. These findings are in line with epidemiological data which suggest that direct contact with nasal and oropharyngeal secretions of Nipah virus infected individuals resulted in greater risk of Nipah virus infection. The data provide new and much-needed insights into the modes and efficiency of Nipah virus transmission and have important public health implications with regards to the risk assessment and management of future Nipah virus outbreaks.

Potential impacts of climate change on the ecology of dengue and its mosquito vector the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erickson, R A; Presley, S M; Cox, S B; Hayhoe, K; Allen, L J S; Long, K R

2012-01-01

Shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases. We examine the potential impacts of climate change on the transmission and maintenance dynamics of dengue, a resurging mosquito-vectored infectious disease. In particular, we project changes in dengue season length for three cities: Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL and Lubbock, TX. These cities are located on the edges of the range of the Asian tiger mosquito within the United States of America and were chosen as test cases. We use a disease model that explicitly incorporates mosquito population dynamics and high-resolution climate projections. Based on projected changes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios as simulated by four global climate models, we found that the projected warming shortened mosquito lifespan, which in turn decreased the potential dengue season. These results illustrate the difficulty in predicting how climate change may alter complex systems. (letter)

Potential impacts of climate change on the ecology of dengue and its mosquito vector the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, R. A.; Hayhoe, K.; Presley, S. M.; Allen, L. J. S.; Long, K. R.; Cox, S. B.

2012-09-01

Shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases. We examine the potential impacts of climate change on the transmission and maintenance dynamics of dengue, a resurging mosquito-vectored infectious disease. In particular, we project changes in dengue season length for three cities: Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL and Lubbock, TX. These cities are located on the edges of the range of the Asian tiger mosquito within the United States of America and were chosen as test cases. We use a disease model that explicitly incorporates mosquito population dynamics and high-resolution climate projections. Based on projected changes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios as simulated by four global climate models, we found that the projected warming shortened mosquito lifespan, which in turn decreased the potential dengue season. These results illustrate the difficulty in predicting how climate change may alter complex systems.

Sero-epidemiological evaluation of changes in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission patterns over the rainy season in Cambodia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cook, Jackie; Speybroeck, Nico; Sochanta, Tho

2012-01-01

In Cambodia, malaria transmission is low and most cases occur in forested areas. Sero-epidemiological techniques can be used to identify both areas of ongoing transmission and high-risk groups to be targeted by control interventions. This study utilizes repeated cross-sectional data to assess...

Rural health centres, communities and malaria case detection in Zambia using mobile telephones: a means to detect potential reservoirs of infection in unstable transmission conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamanga, Aniset; Moono, Petros; Stresman, Gillian; Mharakurwa, Sungano; Shiff, Clive

2010-04-15

Effective malaria control depends on timely acquisition of information on new cases, their location and their frequency so as to deploy supplies, plan interventions or focus attention on specific locations appropriately to intervene and prevent an upsurge in transmission. The process is known as active case detection, but because the information is time sensitive, it is difficult to carry out. In Zambia, the rural health services are operating effectively and for the most part are provided with adequate supplies of rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) as well as effective drugs for the diagnosis and treatment of malaria. The tests are administered to all prior to treatment and appropriate records are kept. Data are obtained in a timely manner and distribution of this information is important for the effective management of malaria control operations. The work reported here involves combining the process of positive diagnoses in rural health centres (passive case detection) to help detect potential outbreaks of malaria and target interventions to foci where parasite reservoirs are likely to occur. Twelve rural health centres in the Choma and Namwala Districts were recruited to send weekly information of rapid malaria tests used and number of positive diagnoses to the Malaria Institute at Macha using mobile telephone SMS. Data were entered in excel, expressed as number of cases per rural health centre and distributed weekly to interested parties. These data from each of the health centres which were mapped using geographical positioning system (GPS) coordinates were used in a time sensitive manner to plot the patterns of malaria case detection in the vicinity of each location. The data were passed on to the appropriate authorities. The seasonal pattern of malaria transmission associated with local ecological conditions can be seen in the distribution of cases diagnosed. Adequate supplies of RDT are essential in health centres and the system can be expanded throughout the

Rural health centres, communities and malaria case detection in Zambia using mobile telephones: a means to detect potential reservoirs of infection in unstable transmission conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kamanga Aniset

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Effective malaria control depends on timely acquisition of information on new cases, their location and their frequency so as to deploy supplies, plan interventions or focus attention on specific locations appropriately to intervene and prevent an upsurge in transmission. The process is known as active case detection, but because the information is time sensitive, it is difficult to carry out. In Zambia, the rural health services are operating effectively and for the most part are provided with adequate supplies of rapid diagnostic tests (RDT as well as effective drugs for the diagnosis and treatment of malaria. The tests are administered to all prior to treatment and appropriate records are kept. Data are obtained in a timely manner and distribution of this information is important for the effective management of malaria control operations. The work reported here involves combining the process of positive diagnoses in rural health centres (passive case detection to help detect potential outbreaks of malaria and target interventions to foci where parasite reservoirs are likely to occur. Methods Twelve rural health centres in the Choma and Namwala Districts were recruited to send weekly information of rapid malaria tests used and number of positive diagnoses to the Malaria Institute at Macha using mobile telephone SMS. Data were entered in excel, expressed as number of cases per rural health centre and distributed weekly to interested parties. Results These data from each of the health centres which were mapped using geographical positioning system (GPS coordinates were used in a time sensitive manner to plot the patterns of malaria case detection in the vicinity of each location. The data were passed on to the appropriate authorities. The seasonal pattern of malaria transmission associated with local ecological conditions can be seen in the distribution of cases diagnosed. Conclusions Adequate supplies of RDT are essential in

Seasonal variations in sleep disorders of nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Yuanmay; Lam, Calvin; Chen, Su-Ru; Sithole, Trevor; Chung, Min-Huey

2017-04-01

To investigate the difference between nurses and the general population regarding seasonal variations in sleep disorders during 2004-2008. The effects of season and group interaction on sleep disorders with regard to different comorbidities were also examined. Studies on seasonal variations in sleep disorders were mainly conducted in Norway for the general population. Furthermore, whether different comorbidities cause seasonal variations in sleep disorders in nurses remains unknown. A retrospective study. Data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database were used in generalised estimating equation Poisson distribution models to investigate the differences in sleep disorders between nurses and the general population diagnosed with sleep disorders (each n = 7643) as well as the interaction effects of sleep disorders between the groups with respect to different seasons. Furthermore, the interaction effects between groups and seasons on sleep disorders in the subgroups of comorbid anxiety disorders and depressive disorders were studied. Both the nurses and the general population had fewer outpatient visits for sleep disorders in winter than in other seasons. The nurses had fewer outpatient visits for sleep disorders than the general population did in each season. The nurses had more outpatient visits for sleep disorders in winter than in summer compared with the general population in the comorbid depressive disorder subgroup but not in the comorbid anxiety disorder subgroup. Nurses and the general population exhibited similar seasonal patterns of sleep disorders, but nurses had fewer outpatient visits for sleep disorders than the general population did in each season. For nurses with comorbid depressive disorders, outpatient visits for sleep disorders were more numerous in winter than in summer, potentially because nurses with comorbid depressive disorders are affected by shorter daylight exposure during winter. Depression and daylight exposure may

The Epidemiology, Clinical Characteristic,Transmission Potential and Control Measures of Zika Virus Infection%The Epidemiology,Clinical Characteristic,Transmission Potential and Control Measures of Zika Virus Infection

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ALOTAIBIABDULLAHSAUDM; ALANAZIMANSOURRASHEDM; AHMADMEESAQ

2017-01-01

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging mosquito born positive standard RNA arbovirus of Flaviviriadae family.Zika virus has been identified sporadically in human in Africa and Asia;however,clinically consequential Zika virus disease had not been documented before to the recent outbreak in the America in 2015.It is rapidly spread across the America and its devastating outcomes for pregnant women and infants.Prior to outbreak of America,Zika virus outbreaks occurred in Yap Island in Micronesia in 2007 and in French Polynesia in 2013.The World Health Organisation (WHO) declarer a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on February 1,2016.Because of the continuous geographicexpansion of both the virus and its mosquito vectors,ZIKV poses a serious threat to public health aroundthe globe.This review summarizes a fast growing body of literature on the history,epidemiology,transmission,clinical presentation and control measures to prevent the transmission of Zika virus.

Effect of Weather Variability on Seasonal Influenza Among Different Age Groups in Queensland, Australia: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Xiaodong; Mengersen, Kerrie; Milinovich, Gabriel; Hu, Wenbiao

2017-06-01

The effects of weather variability on seasonal influenza among different age groups remain unclear. The comparative study aims to explore the differences in the associations between weather variability and seasonal influenza, and growth rates of seasonal influenza epidemics among different age groups in Queensland, Australia. Three Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive models were fitted at the postal area level to quantify the relationships between seasonal influenza and monthly minimum temperature (MIT), monthly vapor pressure, school calendar pattern, and Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage for 3 age groups (Weather variability appears to be more influential on seasonal influenza transmission in younger (0-14) age groups. The growth rates of influenza at postal area level were relatively small for older (≥65) age groups in Queensland, Australia. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Seasonally and regionally determined indication potential of bioassays in contaminated river sediments.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilscherová, Klára; Dusek, Ladislav; Sídlová, Tereza; Jálová, Veronika; Cupr, Pavel; Giesy, John P; Nehyba, Slavomír; Jarkovský, Jirí; Klánová, Jana; Holoubek, Ivan

2010-03-01

River sediments are a dynamic system, especially in areas where floods occur frequently. In the present study, an integrative approach is used to investigate the seasonal and spatial dynamics of contamination of sediments from a regularly flooded industrial area in the Czech Republic, which presents a suitable model ecosystem for pollutant distribution research at a regional level. Surface sediments were sampled repeatedly to represent two different hydrological situations: spring (after the peak of high flow) and autumn (after longer period of low flow). Samples were characterized for abiotic parameters and concentrations of priority organic pollutants. Toxicity was assessed by Microtox test; genotoxicity by SOS-chromotest and green fluorescent protein (GFP)-yeast test; and the presence of compounds with specific mode of action by in vitro bioassays for dioxin-like activity, anti-/androgenicity, and anti-/estrogenicity. Distribution of organic contaminants varied among regions and seasonally. Although the results of Microtox and genotoxicity tests were relatively inconclusive, all other specific bioassays led to statistically significant regional and seasonal differences in profiles and allowed clear separation of upstream and downstream regions. The outcomes of these bioassays indicated an association with concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) as master variables. There were significant interrelations among dioxin-like activity, antiandrogenicity and content of organic carbon, clay, and concentration of PAHs and PCBs, which documents the significance of abiotic factors in accumulation of pollutants. The study demonstrates the strength of the specific bioassays in indicating the changes in contamination and emphasizes the crucial role of a well-designed sampling plan, in which both spatial and temporal dynamics should be taken into account, for the correct interpretations of information in risk assessments.

Multicore fibers for high-capacity submarine transmission systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nooruzzaman, Md.; Morioka, Toshio

2018-01-01

Applications of multicore fibers (MCFs) in undersea transmission systems are investigated, and various potential architectures of branching units for MCF-based undersea transmission systems are presented. Some MCF-based submarine network architectures based on the amount of data traffic are also...

Defining global neuroendocrine gene expression patterns associated with reproductive seasonality in fish.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dapeng Zhang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Many vertebrates, including the goldfish, exhibit seasonal reproductive rhythms, which are a result of interactions between external environmental stimuli and internal endocrine systems in the hypothalamo-pituitary-gonadal axis. While it is long believed that differential expression of neuroendocrine genes contributes to establishing seasonal reproductive rhythms, no systems-level investigation has yet been conducted. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the present study, by analyzing multiple female goldfish brain microarray datasets, we have characterized global gene expression patterns for a seasonal cycle. A core set of genes (873 genes in the hypothalamus were identified to be differentially expressed between May, August and December, which correspond to physiologically distinct stages that are sexually mature (prespawning, sexual regression, and early gonadal redevelopment, respectively. Expression changes of these genes are also shared by another brain region, the telencephalon, as revealed by multivariate analysis. More importantly, by examining one dataset obtained from fish in October who were kept under long-daylength photoperiod (16 h typical of the springtime breeding season (May, we observed that the expression of identified genes appears regulated by photoperiod, a major factor controlling vertebrate reproductive cyclicity. Gene ontology analysis revealed that hormone genes and genes functionally involved in G-protein coupled receptor signaling pathway and transmission of nerve impulses are significantly enriched in an expression pattern, whose transition is located between prespawning and sexually regressed stages. The existence of seasonal expression patterns was verified for several genes including isotocin, ependymin II, GABA(A gamma2 receptor, calmodulin, and aromatase b by independent samplings of goldfish brains from six seasonal time points and real-time PCR assays. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Using both

Short-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenfeng; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Wang, Yubin Mao; Wang, Jiangbo; He, Dandan

2018-04-01

Short-term electricity demand forecasting is the basic work to ensure safe operation of the power system. In this paper, a practical economic electricity transmission model (EETM) is built. With the intelligent adaptive modeling capabilities of Prognoz Platform 7.2, the econometric model consists of three industrial added value and income levels is firstly built, the electricity demand transmission model is also built. By multiple regression, moving averages and seasonal decomposition, the problem of multiple correlations between variables is effectively overcome in EETM. The validity of EETM is proved by comparison with the actual value of Henan Province. Finally, EETM model is used to forecast the electricity consumption of the 1-4 quarter of 2018.

Transmissions in vehicles 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-01

) Electromechanically actuated double clutch and EV transmissions (S. Rietentiet); (36) Linear actuation as a future choice to reduce costs and improve transmission efficiency (J. Behrenroth); (37) Forward-looking solutions for transmissions in electric vehicles - Transmission concepts for electric vehicle/potentials from system and component perspective (M.J. Derse); (38) Rotor position sensor for hybrid drives and electric drives - New generation eddy current position sensor (R. Moeller); (39) Electric axle drive with torque-vectoring-functionality (B.-R. Hoehn); (40) Extreme shift times and high comfort with the DCT are not a contradiction. - The function development and application of the DCT in the Mercedes-BenzSLS AMG (M. Hart); (41) The next generation of GETRAG PowerShift {sup registered} transmissions for FWD applications (S. Bungart); (42) Modular dual clutch transmission as all-wheel drivevariant for a sports car in the tip performance class (M. Fischer); (43) Potential of sintered friction linings in synchronizers (O. Back); (44) Friction between sliding pads and sleeve - Effects on the shifting process (T. Skubacz); (45) New developments in cold forging of hollow gear parts - Extension of the geometrical design of cold formed gear construction parts (S. Rudolf); (46) Start-up device for passenger cars based on a hydrodynamic coupling (A. Menne); (47) State and parameter estimation for the determination of clutch characteristics for wet clutches (A. Tarasow); (48) Control engineering in system development - Additional benefit thanks to control engineering using the example of active vibration damping (G. Bauer).

Effects of Climate and land use on diversity, prevalence, and seasonal transmission of avian hematozoa in American Samoa

Science.gov (United States)

Atkinson, Carter T.; Utuzurrum, Ruth B.; Seamon, Joshua O.; Schmaedick, Mark A.; Lapointe, Dennis; Apelgren, Chloe; Egan, Ariel N.; Watcher-Weatherwax, William

2016-01-01

The indigenous forest birds of American Samoa are increasingly threatened by changing patterns of rainfall and temperature that are associated with climate change as well as environmental stressors associated with agricultural and urban development, invasive species, and new introductions of avian diseases and disease vectors. Long term changes in their distribution, diversity, and population sizes could have significant impacts on the ecological integrity of the islands because of their critical role as pollinators and seed dispersers. We documented diversity of vector borne parasites on Tutuila and Ta‘u Islands over a 10-year period to expand earlier observations of Plasmodium, Trypanosoma, and filarial parasites, to provide better parasite identifications, and to create a better baseline for detecting new parasite introductions. We also identified potential mosquito vectors of avian Plasmodium and Trypanosoma, determined whether land clearing and habitat alterations associated with subsistence farming within the National Park of American Samoa can influence parasite prevalence, and determined whether parasite prevalence is correlated with seasonal changes in rainfall, temperature and wind speed.

Predictive modeling of mosquito abundance and dengue transmission in Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Caldwell, J.; Krystosik, A.; Mutuku, F.; Ndenga, B.; LaBeaud, D.; Mordecai, E.

2017-12-01

Approximately 390 million people are exposed to dengue virus every year, and with no widely available treatments or vaccines, predictive models of disease risk are valuable tools for vector control and disease prevention. The aim of this study was to modify and improve climate-driven predictive models of dengue vector abundance (Aedes spp. mosquitoes) and viral transmission to people in Kenya. We simulated disease transmission using a temperature-driven mechanistic model and compared model predictions with vector trap data for larvae, pupae, and adult mosquitoes collected between 2014 and 2017 at four sites across urban and rural villages in Kenya. We tested predictive capacity of our models using four temperature measurements (minimum, maximum, range, and anomalies) across daily, weekly, and monthly time scales. Our results indicate seasonal temperature variation is a key driving factor of Aedes mosquito abundance and disease transmission. These models can help vector control programs target specific locations and times when vectors are likely to be present, and can be modified for other Aedes-transmitted diseases and arboviral endemic regions around the world.

Laboratory investigation of steam transmission in unsaturated clayey soil under osmotic potential

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehdi Jalili

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Liquids coming from different sources like wastewaters, agricultural and industrial activities and leakages of chemical substances often have high concentration of chemical compositions and the osmotic gradient generated around such sources causes a considerable transmission of the Contamination. The steam transmitted by non-polluted soils moves to polluted masses, causing an increase in the volume of pollution zone and movement of pollutants. Therefore, such physical and chemical processes should be taken into account in pollution transmission models. Using Crumb method, laboratory investigations were conducted on non-dispersive and dispersive clayey soil samples obtained from three areas in Zanjan Province of Iran. A simple experimental setup has been used and hereby introduced. The impact of osmotic force from salinities of 0.5, 1, and 1.5% on steam transmission in clayey soil was examined. Results indicate that for all samples between 5 to 15 days, the moisture content increased in the pollutant zone and decreased in the non-pollutant area. Also it was observed that for dispersive clayey soil, movement of steam among layers was observed to be orderly and its amount was higher than that of non-dispersive clayey soil.

Solution of the Transmission Problem

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Medková, Dagmar

2010-01-01

Roč. 110, č. 3 (2010), s. 1489-1500 ISSN 0167-8019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : Laplace equation * transmission problem * single layer potential * double layer potential Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.979, year: 2010 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10440-009-9522-5

Transmission eigenvalues

Science.gov (United States)

Cakoni, Fioralba; Haddar, Houssem

2013-10-01

associated transmission eigenfunctions. The three papers by respectively Robbiano [11], Blasten and Päivärinta [12], and Lakshtanov and Vainberg [13] provide new complementary results on the existence of transmission eigenvalues for the scalar problem under weak assumptions on the (possibly complex valued) refractive index that mainly stipulates that the contrast does not change sign on the boundary. It is interesting here to see three different new methods to obtain these results. On the other hand, the paper by Bonnet-Ben Dhia and Chesnel [14] addresses the Fredholm properties of the interior transmission problem when the contrast changes sign on the boundary, exhibiting cases where this property fails. Using more standard approaches, the existence and structure of transmission eigenvalues are analyzed in the paper by Delbary [15] for the case of frequency dependent materials in the context of Maxwell's equations, whereas the paper by Vesalainen [16] initiates the study of the transmission eigenvalue problem in unbounded domains by considering the transmission eigenvalues for Schrödinger equation with non-compactly supported potential. The paper by Monk and Selgas [17] addresses the case where the dielectric is mounted on a perfect conductor and provides some numerical examples of the localization of associated eigenvalues using the linear sampling method. A series of papers then addresses the question of localization of transmission eigenvalues and the associated inverse spectral problem for spherically stratified media. More specifically, the paper by Colton and Leung [18] provides new results on complex transmission eigenvalues and a new proof for uniqueness of a solution to the inverse spectral problem, whereas the paper by Sylvester [19] provides sharp results on how to locate all the transmission eigenvalues associated with angular independent eigenfunctions when the index of refraction is constant. The paper by Gintides and Pallikarakis [20] investigates an

Seasonal forcing in a host-macroparasite system.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Rachel A; White, Andrew; Sherratt, Jonathan A

2015-01-21

Seasonal forcing represents a pervasive source of environmental variability in natural systems. Whilst it is reasonably well understood in interacting populations and host-microparasite systems, it has not been studied in detail for host-macroparasite systems. In this paper we analyse the effect of seasonal forcing in a general host-macroparasite system with explicit inclusion of the parasite larval stage and seasonal forcing applied to the birth rate of the host. We emphasise the importance of the period of the limit cycles in the unforced system on the resulting dynamics in the forced system. In particular, when subject to seasonal forcing host-macroparasite systems are capable of multi-year cycles, multiple solution behaviour, quasi-periodicity and chaos. The host-macroparasite systems show a larger potential for multiple solution behaviour and a wider range of periodic solutions compared to similar interacting population and microparasite systems. By examining the system for parameters that represent red grouse and the macroparasite nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis we highlight how seasonality could be an important factor in explaining the wide range of seemingly uncorrelated cycle periods observed in grouse abundance in England and Scotland. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Feeding patterns of potential West Nile virus vectors in south-west Spain.

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Joaquín Muñoz

Full Text Available Mosquito feeding behaviour determines the degree of vector-host contact and may have a serious impact on the risk of West Nile virus (WNV epidemics. Feeding behaviour also interacts with other biotic and abiotic factors that affect virus amplification and transmission.We identified the origin of blood meals in five mosquito species from three different wetlands in SW Spain. All mosquito species analysed fed with different frequencies on birds, mammals and reptiles. Both 'mosquito species' and 'locality' explained a similar amount of variance in the occurrence of avian blood meals. However, 'season of year' was the main factor explaining the presence of human blood meals. The differences in diet resulted in a marked spatial heterogeneity in the estimated WNV transmission risk. Culex perexiguus, Cx. modestus and Cx. pipiens were the main mosquito species involved in WNV enzootic circulation since they feed mainly on birds, were abundant in a number of localities and had high vector competence. Cx. perexiguus may also be important for WNV transmission to horses, as are Cx. pipiens and Cx. theileri in transmission to humans. Estimates of the WNV transmission risk based on mosquito diet, abundance and vector competence matched the results of previous WNV monitoring programs in the area. Our sensitivity analyses suggested that mosquito diet, followed by mosquito abundance and vector competence, are all relevant factors in understanding virus amplification and transmission risk in the studied wild ecosystems. At some of the studied localities, the risk of enzootic circulation of WNV was relatively high, even if the risk of transmission to humans and horses was less.Our results describe for first time the role of five WNV candidate vectors in SW Spain. Interspecific and local differences in mosquito diet composition has an important effect on the potential transmission risk of WNV to birds, horses and humans.

Extended semen for artificial insemination in swine as a potential transmission mechanism for infectious Chlamydia suis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamonic, G; Pasternak, J A; Käser, T; Meurens, F; Wilson, H L

2016-09-01

Although typically unnoticed, Chlamydia infections in swine have been shown to be both widespread and may impact production characteristics and reproductive performance in swine. Serum titers suggest Chlamydia infection within boar studs is common, and infected boars are known to shed chlamydia in their ejaculates. Although the transmission of viruses in chilled extended semen (ES) is well established, the inclusion of antibiotics in commercially available extender is generally believed to limit or preclude the transmission of infectious bacteria. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of ES used in artificial insemination to support transmission of the obligate intracellular bacteria Chlamydia suis (C suis) under standard industry conditions. First, the effect of C suis on sperm quality during storage was assessed by flow cytometry. Only concentrations above 5 × 10(5) viable C suis/mL caused significant spermicidal effects which only became evident after 7 days of storage at 17 °C. No significant effect on acrosome reaction was observed using any chlamydial concentration. Next, an in vitro infection model of swine testicular fibroblast cells was established and used to evaluate the effect of chilled storage on C suis viability under variable conditions. Storage in Androhep ES reduced viability by 34.4% at a multiplicity of infection of 1.25, an effect which increased to 53.3% when the multiplicity of infection decreased to 0.1. Interestingly, storage in semen extender alone (SE) or ES with additional antibiotics had no effect on bacterial viability. To rule out a secondary effect on extender resulting from metabolically active sperm, C suis was stored in fresh and expended SE and again no significant effect on bacterial viability was observed. Fluorescent microscopy of C suis in ES shows an association between bacteria and the remaining gel fraction after storage suggesting that the apparent reduction of bacterial viability in the presence

Transmission line undergrounding : rate impact investigation and analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

In response to concerns expressed by the residents of Markham, Ontario regarding the possible environmental and health impacts of a proposed 230 kV overhead transmission line, Hydro One Networks Inc. (HONI) has proposed to place the line underground as an alternative. This analysis was prepared to evaluate the potential impacts on transmission rates and consumer prices related to changes in the level of underground construction of transmission lines by HONI, as opposed to overhead construction. The report presents the approach to data collection; cost estimates and projections; the modeling and projecting of HONI's regulated rate base and revenue requirement on a basis that reflects the manner in which its future transmission rates are expected to be established; estimates of the incremental cost of undergrounding reflecting a range of reasonable assumptions; and a comparison of the resulting transmission costs and total customer bill. To address the issue of potential demand in other municipalities for additional undergrounding, the study also examined the cumulative effects of ten years' incremental undergrounding costs (i.e. effects on 2014 rates). It was concluded that if HONI were to implement an undergrounding program beginning in 2005, resulting in the installation of 80 km of underground lines by 2014, and shared costs by all users of HONI's system through the network transmission charges, the 2014 transmission rates would be higher. 5 tabs

Control of Sound Transmission with Active-Passive Tiles

OpenAIRE

Goldstein, Andre L.

2006-01-01

Nowadays, numerous applications of active sound transmission control require lightweight partitions with high transmission loss over a broad frequency range and simple control strategies. In this work an active-passive sound transmission control approach is investigated that potentially addresses these requirements. The approach involves the use of lightweight stiff panels, or tiles, attached to a radiating base structure through active-passive soft mounts and covering the structure surface. ...

Potential use of a regional climate model in seasonal tropical cyclone activity predictions in the western North Pacific

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Au-Yeung, Andie Y.M.; Chan, Johnny C.L. [City University of Hong Kong, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)

2012-08-15

This study investigates the potential use of a regional climate model in forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A modified version of Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) is used to examine the ability of the model to simulate TC genesis and landfalling TC tracks for the active TC season in the western North Pacific. In the model, a TC is identified as a vortex satisfying several conditions, including local maximum relative vorticity at 850 hPa with a value {>=}450 x 10{sup -6} s{sup -1}, and the temperature at 300 hPa being 1 C higher than the average temperature within 15 latitude radius from the TC center. Tracks are traced by following these found vortices. Six-month ensemble (8 members each) simulations are performed for each year from 1982 to 2001 so that the climatology of the model can be compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) observed best-track dataset. The 20-year ensemble experiments show that the RegCM3 can be used to simulate vortices with a wind structure and temperature profile similar to those of real TCs. The model also reproduces tracks very similar to those observed with features like genesis in the tropics, recurvature at higher latitudes and landfall/decay. The similarity of the 500-hPa geopotential height patterns between RegCM3 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis (ERA-40) shows that the model can simulate the subtropical high to a large extent. The simulated climatological monthly spatial distributions as well as the interannual variability of TC occurrence are also similar to the JTWC data. These results imply the possibility of producing seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclones using real-time global climate model predictions as boundary conditions for the RegCM3. (orig.)

Quantifying Transmission Investment in Malaria Parasites.

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Megan A Greischar

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Many microparasites infect new hosts with specialized life stages, requiring a subset of the parasite population to forgo proliferation and develop into transmission forms. Transmission stage production influences infectivity, host exploitation, and the impact of medical interventions like drug treatment. Predicting how parasites will respond to public health efforts on both epidemiological and evolutionary timescales requires understanding transmission strategies. These strategies can rarely be observed directly and must typically be inferred from infection dynamics. Using malaria as a case study, we test previously described methods for inferring transmission stage investment against simulated data generated with a model of within-host infection dynamics, where the true transmission investment is known. We show that existing methods are inadequate and potentially very misleading. The key difficulty lies in separating transmission stages produced by different generations of parasites. We develop a new approach that performs much better on simulated data. Applying this approach to real data from mice infected with a single Plasmodium chabaudi strain, we estimate that transmission investment varies from zero to 20%, with evidence for variable investment over time in some hosts, but not others. These patterns suggest that, even in experimental infections where host genetics and other environmental factors are controlled, parasites may exhibit remarkably different patterns of transmission investment.

Seasonal variation of infiltration capacities of soils in western Oregon.

Science.gov (United States)

Michael G. Johnson; Robert L. Beschta

1981-01-01

Infiltration capacities were 50 percent greater during fall than during summer for forest soils of western Oregon. These results contrast with those measured in other studies. In forested areas, investigators should be aware of potentially large seasonal changes in infiltration capacities. Such seasonal changes may exceed effects due to applied treatments (logging,...

Transmission properties of hollow-core photonic bandgap fibers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Falk, Charlotte Ijeoma; Hald, Jan; Petersen, Jan C.

2010-01-01

Variations in optical transmission of four types of hollow-core photonic bandgap fibers are measured as a function of laser frequency. These variations influence the potential accuracy of gas sensors based on molecular spectroscopy in hollow-core fibers.......Variations in optical transmission of four types of hollow-core photonic bandgap fibers are measured as a function of laser frequency. These variations influence the potential accuracy of gas sensors based on molecular spectroscopy in hollow-core fibers....

Avian influenza virus transmission to mammals.

Science.gov (United States)

Herfst, S; Imai, M; Kawaoka, Y; Fouchier, R A M

2014-01-01

Influenza A viruses cause yearly epidemics and occasional pandemics. In addition, zoonotic influenza A viruses sporadically infect humans and may cause severe respiratory disease and fatalities. Fortunately, most of these viruses do not have the ability to be efficiently spread among humans via aerosols or respiratory droplets (airborne transmission) and to subsequently cause a pandemic. However, adaptation of these zoonotic viruses to humans by mutation or reassortment with human influenza A viruses may result in airborne transmissible viruses with pandemic potential. Although our knowledge of factors that affect mammalian adaptation and transmissibility of influenza viruses is still limited, we are beginning to understand some of the biological traits that drive airborne transmission of influenza viruses among mammals. Increased understanding of the determinants and mechanisms of airborne transmission may aid in assessing the risks posed by avian influenza viruses to human health, and preparedness for such risks. This chapter summarizes recent discoveries on the genetic and phenotypic traits required for avian influenza viruses to become airborne transmissible between mammals.

The impact of the expansion of urban vegetable farming on malaria transmission in major cities of Benin

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Kindé Gazard

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Urban agricultural practices are expanding in several cities of the Republic of Benin. This study aims to assess the impact of such practices on transmission of the malaria parasite in major cities of Benin. Method A cross sectional entomological study was carried out from January to December 2009 in two vegetable farming sites in southern Benin (Houeyiho and Acron and one in the northern area (Azèrèkè. The study was based on sampling of mosquitoes by Human Landing Catches (HLC in households close to the vegetable farms and in others located far from the farms. Results During the year of study, 71,678 female mosquitoes were caught by HLC of which 25% (17,920/71,678 were Anopheles species. In the areas surveyed, the main malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum was transmitted in the south by Anopheles gambiae s.s. Transmission was high during the two rainy seasons (April to July and October to November but declined in the two dry seasons (December to March and August to September. In the north, transmission occurred from June to October during the rainy season and was vehicled by two members of the An. gambiae complex: Anopheles gambiae s.s. (98% and Anopheles arabiensis (2%. At Houeyiho, Acron and Azèrèkè, the Entomological Inoculation Rates (EIRs and the Human Biting Rates (HBRs were significantly higher during the dry season in Households Close to Vegetable Farms (HCVF than in those located far from the vegetable areas (HFVF (p 0.05. The knock-down resistance (kdr mutation was the main resistance mechanism detected at high frequency (0.86 to 0.91 in An. gambiae s.l. at all sites. The ace-1R mutation was also found but at a very low frequency ( Conclusion These findings showed that communities living close to vegetable farms are permanently exposed to malaria throughout the year, whereas the risk in those living far from such agricultural practices is limited and only critical during the rainy seasons. Measures must be

Modelling parasite transmission in a grazing system: the importance of host behaviour and immunity.

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Naomi J Fox

Full Text Available Parasitic helminths present one of the most pervasive challenges to grazing herbivores. Many macro-parasite transmission models focus on host physiological defence strategies, omitting more complex interactions between hosts and their environments. This work represents the first model that integrates both the behavioural and physiological elements of gastro-intestinal nematode transmission dynamics in a managed grazing system. A spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic model is developed, that incorporates both the hosts' immunological responses to parasitism, and key grazing behaviours including faecal avoidance. The results demonstrate that grazing behaviour affects both the timing and intensity of parasite outbreaks, through generating spatial heterogeneity in parasite risk and nutritional resources, and changing the timing of exposure to the parasites' free-living stages. The influence of grazing behaviour varies with the host-parasite combination, dependent on the development times of different parasite species and variations in host immune response. Our outputs include the counterintuitive finding that under certain conditions perceived parasite avoidance behaviours (faecal avoidance can increase parasite risk, for certain host-parasite combinations. Through incorporating the two-way interaction between infection dynamics and grazing behaviour, the potential benefits of parasite-induced anorexia are also demonstrated. Hosts with phenotypic plasticity in grazing behaviour, that make grazing decisions dependent on current parasite burden, can reduce infection with minimal loss of intake over the grazing season. This paper explores how both host behaviours and immunity influence macro-parasite transmission in a spatially and temporally heterogeneous environment. The magnitude and timing of parasite outbreaks is influenced by host immunity and behaviour, and the interactions between them; the incorporation of both regulatory processes

Atmospheric Seasonality as an Exoplanet Biosignature

Science.gov (United States)

Olson, Stephanie L.; Schwieterman, Edward W.; Reinhard, Christopher T.; Ridgwell, Andy; Kane, Stephen R.; Meadows, Victoria S.; Lyons, Timothy W.

2018-05-01

Current investigations of exoplanet biosignatures have focused on static evidence of life, such as the presence of biogenic gases like O2 or CH4. However, the expected diversity of terrestrial planet atmospheres and the likelihood of both “false positives” and “false negatives” for conventional biosignatures motivate exploration of additional life detection strategies, including time-varying signals. Seasonal variation in atmospheric composition is a biologically modulated phenomenon on Earth that may occur elsewhere because it arises naturally from the interplay between the biosphere and time-variable insolation. The search for seasonality as a biosignature would avoid many assumptions about specific metabolisms and provide an opportunity to directly quantify biological fluxes—allowing us to characterize, rather than simply recognize, biospheres on exoplanets. Despite this potential, there have been no comprehensive studies of seasonality as an exoplanet biosignature. Here, we provide a foundation for further studies by reviewing both biological and abiological controls on the magnitude and detectability of seasonality of atmospheric CO2, CH4, O2, and O3 on Earth. We also consider an example of an inhabited world for which atmospheric seasonality may be the most notable expression of its biosphere. We show that life on a low O2 planet like the weakly oxygenated mid-Proterozoic Earth could be fingerprinted by seasonal variation in O3 as revealed in its UV Hartley–Huggins bands. This example highlights the need for UV capabilities in future direct-imaging telescope missions (e.g., LUVOIR/HabEx) and illustrates the diagnostic importance of studying temporal biosignatures for exoplanet life detection/characterization.

Melanopsin-Mediated Acute Light Responses Measured in Winter and in Summer: Seasonal Variations in Adults with and without Cataracts

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Mirjam Münch

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Seasonal adaptation is a ubiquitous behavior seen in many species on both global hemispheres and is conveyed by changing photoperiods. In humans this seasonal adaptation is less apparent, in part because changes in daylength are masked by the use of electrical lighting at night. On the other hand, cataracts which reduce light transmission, may compound seasonal changes related to the reduced daylength of winter. To better understand the effects of different photoperiod lengths in healthy adults without and with cataracts, we tested their melanopsin-mediated light responses in summer vs. winter. Fifty-two participants (mean age 67.4 years; 30 with bilateral cataracts and 22 age-matched controls with clear lenses; pseudophakes were tested twice, once in summer and once in winter. At each test session we assessed the electroretinogram and pupil responses during daytime and we determined melatonin suppression, subjective sleepiness and mood in response to light exposure in the evening. Circadian rest-activity cycles and sleep from activity recordings were also analyzed for both seasons. Both groups had similar visual function. There were no seasonal differences in the electroretinogram. For the pupil responses to bright blue light, the post-illumination pupil response (PIPR was greater in winter than summer in pseudophakes, but not in cataract participants, whereas melatonin suppression to acute light exposure showed no differences between both groups and seasons. Overall, intra-daily variability of rest-activity was worse in winter but participants felt sleepier and reported worse mood at the laboratory in evening time in the summer. Those with cataracts had poorer sleep quality with lower sleep efficiency, and higher activity during sleep in winter than summer. In this study, the PIPR showed a seasonal variation in which a larger response was found during winter. This variation was only detected in participants with a clear intraocular lens. In

Consumer Acceptance Comparison Between Seasoned and Unseasoned Vegetables.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yiming; Albiol Tapia, Marta; Okada, Kyle; Castaneda Lazo, Nuria Blanca; Chapman-Novakofski, Karen; Phillips, Carter; Lee, Soo-Yeun

2018-02-01

Recent findings show that approximately 87% of the U.S. population fail to meet the vegetable intake recommendations, with unpleasant taste of vegetables being listed as the primary reason for this shortfall. In this study, spice and herb seasoning was used to enhance palatability of vegetables, in order to increase consumer acceptance. In total, 749 panelists were screened and recruited as specific vegetable likers of the vegetable being tested or general vegetable likers. Four sessions were designed to evaluate the effect of seasoning within each type of vegetable, including broccoli, cauliflower, carrot, and green bean. Each panelist was only allowed to participate in one test session to evaluate only one vegetable type, so as to mitigate potential learning effect. Overall, the results showed that seasoned vegetables were significantly preferred over unseasoned vegetables (P trend of seasoned vegetable being preferred remained. The findings from this study demonstrate the effect of seasoning in enhancing consumer liking of vegetables, which may lead to increased consumption to be assessed in future studies. To improve the sensory properties of vegetables, masking the bitter taste of vegetables using spice and herb seasoning are gaining increasing attention. Our findings suggest that the overall liking of vegetables could be improved by incorporating spice and herb seasonings that are specifically formulated for each vegetable. Ultimately, developing and commercializing spice and herb seasonings may aid to increase vegetable consumption, as well as expanding the vegetable seasoning market. © 2018 The Authors Journal of Food Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Institute of Food Technologists.

Tourists’ Perception of Haze Pollution and the Potential Impacts on Travel: Reshaping the Features of Tourism Seasonality in Beijing, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aiping Zhang

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Haze pollution has worsened and has received close attention by news agencies in the past two years. This type of environmental pollution might have a great effect on tourism image and the entire tourism industry of a destination. This study aimed to reveal the potential impacts of haze pollution on the tourism industry. Based on a case study in Beijing using questionnaires for potential tourists, awareness of haze pollution, impacts of haze pollution on travel and attitudes toward the impacts were discussed. The results indicated that haze pollution has a considerable potential impact on travel, and there are distinct differences among travel elements and tourism market segments. Due to its impacts, haze pollution could be taken into account in tourists’ decision-making processes, causing a portion of potential tourists to cancel tourism plans. As a result, tourist arrivals to similar destinations could decrease by a small margin, but the most significant impact could be on the temporal distribution of tourist arrivals, namely tourism seasonality, due to tourists’ “avoiding” psychology.

Gastrointestinal helminths may affect host susceptibility to anthrax through seasonal immune trade-offs.

Science.gov (United States)

Cizauskas, Carrie A; Turner, Wendy C; Wagner, Bettina; Küsters, Martina; Vance, Russell E; Getz, Wayne M

2014-11-12

, and that these trade-offs may render hosts less capable of concurrently mounting effective Th1-type immune responses against anthrax. This study is one of the first to examine laboratory-demonstrated Th1-Th2 trade-offs in a natural system. It provides evidence that seasonally bound pathogens may affect, through immunology, transmission dynamics of pathogens that might otherwise not be seasonally distributed. It suggests that, by manipulating the internal host ecosystem, GI parasites may influence the external ecosystem by affecting the dynamics of another environmentally transmitted pathogen.

West Nile Virus: High Transmission Rate in North-Western European Mosquitoes Indicates Its Epidemic Potential and Warrants Increased Surveillance.

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Jelke J Fros

Full Text Available West Nile virus (WNV is a highly pathogenic flavivirus transmitted by Culex spp. mosquitoes. In North America (NA, lineage 1 WNV caused the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease to date, while a novel pathogenic lineage 2 strain circulates in southern Europe. To estimate WNV lineage 2 epidemic potential it is paramount to know if mosquitoes from currently WNV-free areas can support further spread of this epidemic.We assessed WNV vector competence of Culex pipiens mosquitoes originating from north-western Europe (NWE in direct comparison with those from NA. We exposed mosquitoes to infectious blood meals of lineage 1 or 2 WNV and determined the infection and transmission rates. We explored reasons for vector competence differences by comparing intrathoracic injection versus blood meal infection, and we investigated the influence of temperature. We found that NWE mosquitoes are highly competent for both WNV lineages, with transmission rates up to 25%. Compared to NA mosquitoes, transmission rates for lineage 2 WNV were significantly elevated in NWE mosquitoes due to better virus dissemination from the midgut and a shorter extrinsic incubation time. WNV infection rates further increased with temperature increase.Our study provides experimental evidence to indicate markedly different risk levels between both continents for lineage 2 WNV transmission and suggests a degree of genotype-genotype specificity in the interaction between virus and vector. Our experiments with varying temperatures explain the current localized WNV activity in southern Europe, yet imply further epidemic spread throughout NWE during periods with favourable climatic conditions. This emphasizes the need for intensified surveillance of virus activity in current WNV disease-free regions and warrants increased awareness in clinics throughout Europe.

A Mathematical Model of Malaria Transmission with Structured Vector Population and Seasonality

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Bakary Traoré

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model of nonautonomous ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of malaria transmission with age structure for the vector population. The biting rate of mosquitoes is considered as a positive periodic function which depends on climatic factors. The basic reproduction ratio of the model is obtained and we show that it is the threshold parameter between the extinction and the persistence of the disease. Thus, by applying the theorem of comparison and the theory of uniform persistence, we prove that if the basic reproduction ratio is less than 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and if it is greater than 1, then there exists at least one positive periodic solution. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate our analytical results.

Effect of chemotherapy on malaria transmission among Yanomami Amerindians: simulated consequences of placebo treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, J; Laserson, K F; Petralanda, I; Spielman, A

1999-05-01

To determine whether chemotherapy effectively reduces Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in isolated human populations, we followed two abrupt sequential outbreaks of malaria infection among Yanomami Amerindians and modeled the effect of chemotherapy and the consequences if no drug was available. A Macdonald-type mathematical model demonstrated that both outbreaks comprised a single epidemic event linked by an invisible outbreak in vector mosquitoes. The basic reproductive number, R0, from fitted values based on the treated epidemic was 2 during the initial phase of the epidemic, and waned as vector density decreased with the onset of the dry season. In the observed epidemic, 60 (45%) of 132 village residents were affected, and the treated outbreak ended after two months. Although the initial chemotherapy regimen was only marginally effective, the duration of human infectivity was reduced from an expected nine months to two weeks. In the absence of this intervention, the initial R0 value would have been 40, more than 60% of the population would have been infected, and more than 30% would have remained parasitemic until the next rainy season (about six months later). Another outbreak would then have ensued, and malaria probably would have remained endemic in this village. Our simulated placebo treatment permits us to conclude that even partially effective chemotherapeutic interventions, such as those in our study, interrupt serial transmission of P. falciparum among isolated human populations that are exposed to infection seasonally.

Global assessment of seasonal potential distribution of Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szyniszewska, Anna M.; Tatem, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

The Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly) is one of the world's most economically damaging pests. It displays highly seasonal population dynamics, and the environmental conditions suitable for its abundance are not constant throughout the year in most places. An extensive literature search was performed to obtain the most comprehensive data on the historical and contemporary spatio-temporal occurrence of the pest globally. The database constructed contained 2328 unique geo-located entries on Medfly detection sites from 43 countries and nearly 500 unique localities, as well as information on hosts, life stages and capture method. Of these, 125 localities had information on the month when Medfly was recorded and these data were complemented by additional material found in comprehensive databases available online. Records from 1980 until present were used for medfly environmental niche modeling. Maximum Entropy Algorithm (MaxEnt) and a set of seasonally varying environmental covariates were used to predict the fundamental niche of the Medfly on a global scale. Three seasonal maps were also produced: January-April, May- August and September-December. Models performed significantly better than random achieving high accuracy scores, indicating a good discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for the presence of the species. (author)

The dynamics of transmission and the dynamics of networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Farine, Damien

2017-05-01

A toy example depicted here highlighting the results of a study in this issue of the Journal of Animal Ecology that investigates the impact of network dynamics on potential disease outbreaks. Infections (stars) that spread by contact only (left) reduce the predicted outbreak size compared to situations where individuals can become infected by moving through areas that previously contained infected individuals (right). This is potentially important in species where individuals, or in this case groups, have overlapping ranges (as depicted on the top right). Incorporating network dynamics that maintain information about the ordering of contacts (central blocks; including the ordering of spatial overlap as noted by the arrows that highlight the blue group arriving after the red group in top-right of the figure) is important for capturing how a disease might not have the opportunity to spread to all individuals. By contrast, a static or 'average' network (lower blocks) does not capture any of these dynamics. Interestingly, although static networks generally predict larger outbreak sizes, the authors find that in cases when transmission probability is low, this prediction can switch as a result of changes in the estimated intensity of contacts among individuals. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]. Springer, A., Kappeler, P.M. & Nunn, C.L. (2017) Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: Predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs. Journal of Animal Ecology, 86, 419-433. The spread of disease or information through networks can be affected by several factors. Whether and how these factors are accounted for can fundamentally change the predicted impact of a spreading epidemic. Springer, Kappeler & Nunn () investigate the role of different modes of transmission and network dynamics on the predicted size of a disease outbreak across several groups of Verreaux's sifakas, a group-living species of lemur. While some factors

Earlier Snowmelt Changes the Ratio Between Early and Late Season Forest Productivity

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Knowles, J. F.; Molotch, N. P.; Trujillo, E.; Litvak, M. E.

2017-12-01

Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation associated with climate warming are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally. This scenario has direct implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity, but the net effect of temporally shifting moisture dynamics is unknown with respect to the annual carbon balance. Accordingly, this study uses both satellite- and tower-based observations to document the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, USA. These results show that a combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34-year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions. Moreover, early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related, suggesting that future shifts toward earlier or reduced snowmelt could increase late-season moisture stress to vegetation and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This relationship was further subject to modification by summer precipitation, and the controls on the early/late season productivity ratio are explored within the context of ecosystem carbon storage in the future. Any perturbation to the carbon cycle at this scale represents a potential feedback to climate change since snow-covered forests represent an important global carbon sink.

Predators and patterns of within-host growth can mediate both among-host competition and evolution of transmission potential of parasites.

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Auld, Stuart K J R; Hall, Spencer R; Housley Ochs, Jessica; Sebastian, Mathew; Duffy, Meghan A

2014-08-01

Parasite prevalence shows tremendous spatiotemporal variation. Theory indicates that this variation might stem from life-history characteristics of parasites and key ecological factors. Here, we illustrate how the interaction of an important predator and the schedule of transmission potential of two parasites can explain parasite abundance. A field survey showed that a noncastrating fungus (Metschnikowia bicuspidata) commonly infected a dominant zooplankton host (Daphnia dentifera), while a castrating bacterial parasite (Pasteuria ramosa) was rare. This result seemed surprising given that the bacterium produces many more infectious propagules (spores) than the fungus upon host death. The fungus's dominance can be explained by the schedule of within-host growth of parasites (i.e., how transmission potential changes over the course of infection) and the release of spores from "sloppy" predators (Chaoborus spp., who consume Daphnia prey whole and then later regurgitate the carapace and parasite spores). In essence, sloppy predators create a niche that the faster-schedule fungus currently occupies. However, a selection experiment showed that the slower-schedule bacterium can evolve into this faster-schedule, predator-mediated niche (but pays a cost in maximal spore yield to do so). Hence, our study shows how parasite life history can interact with predation to strongly influence the ecology, epidemiology, and evolution of infectious disease.

Potential cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis treatment for reducing HIV transmission in Africa--the case of Zimbabwean women.

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Martial L Ndeffo Mbah

Full Text Available Epidemiological data from Zimbabwe suggests that genital infection with Schistosoma haematobium may increase the risk of HIV infection in young women. Therefore, the treatment of Schistosoma haematobium with praziquantel could be a potential strategy for reducing HIV infection. Here we assess the potential cost-effectiveness of praziquantel as a novel intervention strategy against HIV infection.We developed a mathematical model of female genital schistosomiasis (FGS and HIV infections in Zimbabwe that we fitted to cross-sectional data of FGS and HIV prevalence of 1999. We validated our epidemic projections using antenatal clinic data on HIV prevalence. We simulated annual praziquantel administration to school-age children. We then used these model predictions to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of annual administration of praziquantel as a potential measure to reduce the burden of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.We showed that for a variation of efficacy between 30-70% of mass praziquantel administration for reducing the enhanced risk of HIV transmission per sexual act due to FGS, annual administration of praziquantel to school-age children in Zimbabwe could result in net savings of US$16-101 million compared with no mass treatment of schistosomiasis over a ten-year period. For a variation in efficacy between 30-70% of mass praziquantel administration for reducing the acquisition of FGS, annual administration of praziquantel to school-age children could result in net savings of US$36-92 million over a ten-year period.In addition to reducing schistosomiasis burden, mass praziquantel administration may be a highly cost-effective way of reducing HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa. Program costs per case of HIV averted are similar to, and under some conditions much better than, other interventions that are currently implemented in Africa to reduce HIV transmission. As a cost-saving strategy, mass praziquantel administration should be prioritized

Plasmodium vivax Transmission in Africa.

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Rosalind E Howes

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Malaria in sub-Saharan Africa has historically been almost exclusively attributed to Plasmodium falciparum (Pf. Current diagnostic and surveillance systems in much of sub-Saharan Africa are not designed to identify or report non-Pf human malaria infections accurately, resulting in a dearth of routine epidemiological data about their significance. The high prevalence of Duffy negativity provided a rationale for excluding the possibility of Plasmodium vivax (Pv transmission. However, review of varied evidence sources including traveller infections, community prevalence surveys, local clinical case reports, entomological and serological studies contradicts this viewpoint. Here, these data reports are weighted in a unified framework to reflect the strength of evidence of indigenous Pv transmission in terms of diagnostic specificity, size of individual reports and corroboration between evidence sources. Direct evidence was reported from 21 of the 47 malaria-endemic countries studied, while 42 countries were attributed with infections of visiting travellers. Overall, moderate to conclusive evidence of transmission was available from 18 countries, distributed across all parts of the continent. Approximately 86.6 million Duffy positive hosts were at risk of infection in Africa in 2015. Analysis of the mechanisms sustaining Pv transmission across this continent of low frequency of susceptible hosts found that reports of Pv prevalence were consistent with transmission being potentially limited to Duffy positive populations. Finally, reports of apparent Duffy-independent transmission are discussed. While Pv is evidently not a major malaria parasite across most of sub-Saharan Africa, the evidence presented here highlights its widespread low-level endemicity. An increased awareness of Pv as a potential malaria parasite, coupled with policy shifts towards species-specific diagnostics and reporting, will allow a robust assessment of the public health

The potential for flower nectar to allow mosquito to mosquito transmission of Francisella tularensis.

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Kenney, Adam; Cusick, Austin; Payne, Jessica; Gaughenbaugh, Anna; Renshaw, Andrea; Wright, Jenna; Seeber, Roger; Barnes, Rebecca; Florjanczyk, Aleksandr; Horzempa, Joseph

2017-01-01

Francisella tularensis is disseminated in nature by biting arthropods such as mosquitoes. The relationship between mosquitoes and F. tularensis in nature is highly ambiguous, due in part to the fact that mosquitoes have caused significant tularemia outbreaks despite being classified as a mechanical vector of F. tularensis. One possible explanation for mosquitoes being a prominent, yet mechanical vector is that these insects feed on flower nectar between blood meals, allowing for transmission of F. tularensis between mosquitoes. Here, we aimed to assess whether F. tularensis could survive in flower nectar. Moreover, we examined if mosquitoes could interact with or ingest and transmit F. tularensis from one source of nectar to another. F. tularensis exhibited robust survivability in flower nectar with concentrations of viable bacteria remaining consistent with the rich growth medium. Furthermore, F. tularensis was able to survive (albeit to a lesser extent) in 30% sucrose (a nectar surrogate) over a period of time consistent with that of a typical flower bloom. Although we observed diminished bacterial survival in the nectar surrogate, mosquitoes that fed on this material became colonized with F. tularensis. Finally, colonized mosquitoes were capable of transferring F. tularensis to a sterile nectar surrogate. These data suggest that flower nectar may be capable of serving as a temporary source of F. tularensis that could contribute to the amplification of outbreaks. Mosquitoes that feed on an infected mammalian host and subsequently feed on flower nectar could deposit some F. tularensis bacteria into the nectar in the process. Mosquitoes subsequently feeding on this nectar source could potentially become colonized by F. tularensis. Thus, the possibility exists that flower nectar may allow for vector-vector transmission of F. tularensis.

Influenza A virus transmission via respiratory aerosols or droplets as it relates to pandemic potential

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Richard, Mathilde; Fouchier, Ron A.M.

2015-01-01

Many respiratory viruses of humans originate from animals. For instance, there are now eight paramyxoviruses, four coronaviruses and four orthomxoviruses that cause recurrent epidemics in humans but were once confined to other hosts. In the last decade, several members of the same virus families have jumped the species barrier from animals to humans. Fortunately, these viruses have not become established in humans, because they lacked the ability of sustained transmission between humans. However, these outbreaks highlighted the lack of understanding of what makes a virus transmissible. In part triggered by the relatively high frequency of occurrence of influenza A virus zoonoses and pandemics, the influenza research community has started to investigate the viral genetic and biological traits that drive virus transmission via aerosols or respiratory droplets between mammals. Here we summarize recent discoveries on the genetic and phenotypic traits required for airborne transmission of zoonotic influenza viruses of subtypes H5, H7 and H9 and pandemic viruses of subtypes H1, H2 and H3. Increased understanding of the determinants and mechanisms of respiratory virus transmission is not only key from a basic scientific perspective, but may also aid in assessing the risks posed by zoonotic viruses to human health, and preparedness for such risks. PMID:26385895

Vectors and malaria transmission in deforested, rural communities in north-central Vietnam

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Do Manh Cuong

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is still prevalent in rural communities of central Vietnam even though, due to deforestation, the primary vector Anopheles dirus is uncommon. In these situations little is known about the secondary vectors which are responsible for maintaining transmission. Basic information on the identification of the species in these rural communities is required so that transmission parameters, such as ecology, behaviour and vectorial status can be assigned to the appropriate species. Methods In two rural villages - Khe Ngang and Hang Chuon - in Truong Xuan Commune, Quang Binh Province, north central Vietnam, a series of longitudinal entomological surveys were conducted during the wet and dry seasons from 2003 - 2007. In these surveys anopheline mosquitoes were collected in human landing catches, paired human and animal bait collections, and from larval surveys. Specimens belonging to species complexes were identified by PCR and sequence analysis, incrimination of vectors was by detection of circumsporozoite protein using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Results Over 80% of the anopheline fauna was made up of Anopheles sinensis, Anopheles aconitus, Anopheles harrisoni, Anopheles maculatus, Anopheles sawadwongporni, and Anopheles philippinensis. PCR and sequence analysis resolved identification issues in the Funestus Group, Maculatus Group, Hyrcanus Group and Dirus Complex. Most species were zoophilic and while all species could be collected biting humans significantly higher densities were attracted to cattle and buffalo. Anopheles dirus was the most anthropophilic species but was uncommon making up only 1.24% of all anophelines collected. Anopheles sinensis, An. aconitus, An. harrisoni, An. maculatus, An. sawadwongporni, Anopheles peditaeniatus and An. philippinensis were all found positive for circumsporozoite protein. Heterogeneity in oviposition site preference between species enabled vector densities to be high in both

Impact of seasonal forcing on reactive ecological systems.

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Vesipa, Riccardo; Ridolfi, Luca

2017-04-21

Our focus is on the short-term dynamics of reactive ecological systems which are stable in the long term. In these systems, perturbations can exhibit significant transient amplifications before asymptotically decaying. This peculiar behavior has attracted increasing attention. However, reactive systems have so far been investigated assuming that external environmental characteristics remain constant, although environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, moisture, water availability, etc.) can undergo substantial changes due to seasonal cycles. In order to fill this gap, we propose applying the adjoint non-modal analysis to study the impact of seasonal variations of environmental conditions on reactive systems. This tool allows the transient dynamics of a perturbation affecting non-autonomous ecological systems to be described. To show the potential of this approach, a seasonally forced prey-predator model with a Holling II type functional response is studied as an exemplifying case. We demonstrate that seasonalities can greatly affect the transient dynamics of the system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genotype-Specific Measles Transmissibility: A Branching Process Analysis.

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Ackley, Sarah F; Hacker, Jill K; Enanoria, Wayne T A; Worden, Lee; Blumberg, Seth; Porco, Travis C; Zipprich, Jennifer

2018-04-03

Substantial heterogeneity in measles outbreak sizes may be due to genotype-specific transmissibility. Using a branching process analysis, we characterize differences in measles transmission by estimating the association between genotype and the reproduction number R among postelimination California measles cases during 2000-2015 (400 cases, 165 outbreaks). Assuming a negative binomial secondary case distribution, we fit a branching process model to the distribution of outbreak sizes using maximum likelihood and estimated the reproduction number R for a multigenotype model. Genotype B3 is found to be significantly more transmissible than other genotypes (P = .01) with an R of 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI], .48-.71), while the R for all other genotypes combined is 0.43 (95% CI, .28-.54). This result is robust to excluding the 2014-2015 outbreak linked to Disneyland theme parks (referred to as "outbreak A" for conciseness and clarity) (P = .04) and modeling genotype as a random effect (P = .004 including outbreak A and P = .02 excluding outbreak A). This result was not accounted for by season of introduction, age of index case, or vaccination of the index case. The R for outbreaks with a school-aged index case is 0.69 (95% CI, .52-.78), while the R for outbreaks with a non-school-aged index case is 0.28 (95% CI, .19-.35), but this cannot account for differences between genotypes. Variability in measles transmissibility may have important implications for measles control; the vaccination threshold required for elimination may not be the same for all genotypes or age groups.

Design of electron wave filters in monolayer graphene by tunable transmission gap

OpenAIRE

Chen, Xi; Tao, Jia-Wei

2009-01-01

We have investigated the transmission in monolayer graphene barrier at nonzero angle of incidence. Taking the influence of parallel wave vector into account, the transmission as the function of incidence energy has a gap due to the evanescent waves in two cases of Klein tunneling and classical motion. The modulation of the transmission gap by the incidence angle, the height, and width of potential barrier may lead to potential applications in graphene-based electronic devices.

Power Split Based Dual Hemispherical Continuously Variable Transmission

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Douwe Dresscher

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In this work, we present a new continuously variable transmission concept: the Dual-Hemi Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT. It is designed to have properties we believe are required to apply continuously variable transmissions in robotics to their full potential. These properties are a transformation range that includes both positive and negative ratios, back-drivability under all conditions, kinematically decoupled reconfiguration, high efficiency of the transmission, and a reconfiguration mechanism requiring little work for changing the transmission ratio. The design of the Dual-Hemi CVT and a prototype realisation are discussed in detail. We show that the Dual-Hemi CVT has the aforementioned desired properties. Experiments show that the efficiency of the CVT is above 90% for a large part of the range of operation of the CVT. Significant stiction in the transmission, combined with a relatively low bandwidth for changing the transmission ratio, may cause problems when applying the DH-CVT as part of an actuator in a control loop.

When More Transmission Equals Less Disease: Reconciling the Disconnect between Disease Hotspots and Parasite Transmission

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Park, Andrew W.; Magori, Krisztian; White, Brad A.; Stallknecht, David E.

2013-01-01

The assumed straightforward connection between transmission intensity and disease occurrence impacts surveillance and control efforts along with statistical methodology, including parameter inference and niche modeling. Many infectious disease systems have the potential for this connection to be more complicated–although demonstrating this in any given disease system has remained elusive. Hemorrhagic disease (HD) is one of the most important diseases of white-tailed deer and is caused by viruses in the Orbivirus genus. Like many infectious diseases, the probability or severity of disease increases with age (after loss of maternal antibodies) and the probability of disease is lower upon re-infection compared to first infection (based on cross-immunity between virus strains). These broad criteria generate a prediction that disease occurrence is maximized at intermediate levels of transmission intensity. Using published US field data, we first fit a statistical model to predict disease occurrence as a function of seroprevalence (a proxy for transmission intensity), demonstrating that states with intermediate seroprevalence have the highest level of case reporting. We subsequently introduce an independently parameterized mechanistic model supporting the theory that high case reporting should come from areas with intermediate levels of transmission. This is the first rigorous demonstration of this phenomenon and illustrates that variation in transmission rate (e.g. along an ecologically-controlled transmission gradient) can create cryptic refuges for infectious diseases. PMID:23579922

The puzzle of Buruli ulcer transmission, ethno-ecological history and the end of "love" in the Akonolinga district, Cameroon.

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Giles-Vernick, Tamara; Owona-Ntsama, Joseph; Landier, Jordi; Eyangoh, Sara

2015-03-01

The "One World One Health Initiative" has attended little to the priorities, concepts and practices of resource-poor communities confronting disease and the implications of these concerns for its biomedical, ecological and institutional approach to disease surveillance and control. Using the example of Buruli ulcer (BU) and its bacterial etiology, Mycobacterium ulcerans, in south-central Cameroon, we build on debates about the contributions of "local knowledge" and "alternative models" to biomedical knowledge of disease transmission. BU's mode of transmission remains poorly understood. Our approach employs ethno-ecological histories - local understandings of the putative emergence and expansion of a locally important, neglected disease. We develop these histories from 52 individual and small group interviews, group discussions, and participant-observation of daily and seasonal activities, conducted in 2013-2013. These histories offer important clues about past environmental and social change that should guide further ecological, epidemiological research. They highlight a key historical moment (the late 1980s and 1990s); specific ecological transformations; new cultivation practices in unexploited zones that potentially increased exposure to M. ulcerans; and ecological degradation that may have lowered nutritional standards and heightened susceptibility to BU. They also recast transmission, broadening insight into BU and its local analog, atom, by emphasizing the role of social change and economic crisis in its emergence and expansion. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors associated with differential uptake of seasonal influenza immunizations among underserved communities during the 2009-2010 influenza season.

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Vlahov, David; Bond, Keosha T; Jones, Kandice C; Ompad, Danielle C

2012-04-01

Influenza vaccination coverage remains low and disparities persist. In New York City, a community-based participatory research project (Project VIVA) worked to address this issue in Harlem and the South Bronx by supplementing existing vaccination programs with non-traditional venues (i.e., community-based organizations). We conducted a 10 min survey to assess access to influenza vaccine as well as attitudes and beliefs towards influenza vaccination that could inform intervention development for subsequent seasons. Among 991 participants recruited using street intercept techniques, 63% received seasonal vaccine only, 11% seasonal and H1N1, and 26% neither; 89% reported seeing a health care provider (HCP) during the influenza season. Correlates of immunization among those with provider visits during the influenza season included being US-born, interest in getting the vaccine, concern about self or family getting influenza, an HCP's recommendation and comfort with government. Among those without an HCP visit, factors associated with immunization included being US born, married, interest in getting the vaccine, understanding influenza information, and concern about getting influenza. Factors associated with lack of interest in influenza vaccine included being born outside the US, Black and uncomfortable with government. In medically underserved areas, having access to routine medical care and understanding the medical implications of influenza play an important role in enhancing uptake of seasonal influenza vaccination. Strategies to improve vaccination rates among Blacks and foreign-born residents need to be addressed. The use of non-traditional venues to provide influenza vaccinations in underserved communities has the potential to reduce health disparities.

Transmission of drug resistant HIV and its potential impact on mortality and treatment outcomes in resource-limited settings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cambiano, Valentina; Bertagnolio, Silvia; Jordan, Michael R

2013-01-01

is the most cost-effective. Mathematical models can contribute to answer these questions. In order to estimate the potential long-term impact of TDR on mortality in people on ART we used the Synthesis transmission model. TDR is predicted to have potentially significant impact on future HIV mortality...... periods of unrecognized viral failure, during which drug-resistant virus can be transmitted and this could compromise the long-term effectiveness of currently available first-line regimens. In response to this concern, the World Health Organization recommends population-based surveys to detect whether...... the prevalence of resistance in ART-naive people is reaching alerting levels. Whereas adherence counseling has to be an integral component of any treatment program, it is still unclear which threshold of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) should trigger additional targeted public health actions and which action...

Detecting Foci of Malaria Transmission with School Surveys: A Pilot Study in the Gambia.

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Ebako N Takem

Full Text Available In areas of declining malaria transmission such as in The Gambia, the identification of malaria infected individuals becomes increasingly harder. School surveys may be used to identify foci of malaria transmission in the community.The survey was carried out in May-June 2011, before the beginning of the malaria transmission season. Thirty two schools in the Upper River Region of The Gambia were selected with probability proportional to size; in each school approximately 100 children were randomly chosen for inclusion in the study. Each child had a finger prick blood sample collected for the determination of antimalarial antibodies by ELISA, malaria infection by microscopy and PCR, and for haemoglobin measurement. In addition, a simple questionnaire on socio-demographic variables and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets was completed. The cut-off for positivity for antimalarial antibodies was obtained using finite mixture models. The clustered nature of the data was taken into account in the analyses.A total of 3,277 children were included in the survey. The mean age was 10 years (SD = 2.7 [range 4-21], with males and females evenly distributed. The prevalence of malaria infection as determined by PCR was 13.6% (426/3124 [95% CI = 12.2-16.3] with marked variation between schools (range 3-25%, p<0.001, while the seroprevalence was 7.8% (234/2994 [95%CI = 6.4-9.8] for MSP119, 11.6% (364/2997 [95%CI = 9.4-14.5] for MSP2, and 20.0% (593/2973 [95% CI = 16.5-23.2 for AMA1. The prevalence of all the three antimalarial antibodies positive was 2.7% (79/2920.This survey shows that malaria prevalence and seroprevalence before the transmission season were highly heterogeneous.

Adult Fanniidae associated to pig carcasses during the winter season in a semiarid environment: initial examination of their potential as complementary PMI indicators.

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Aballay, Fernando H; Domínguez, M Cecilia; Fernández Campón, Florencia

2012-06-10

Besides the dominant necrophagous dipteran of the families Sarcophagidae and Calliphoridae usually used for post mortem interval (PMI) estimations, species of other families such as Fanniidae have frequently been reported in forensic studies. Though less abundant, these species are prevalent in decomposing carcasses with most reports being anecdotal. In this study we identified adults of the fly family Fanniidae associated to pig carcasses located under different local environmental conditions (sun and shade) in a semiarid area at Mendoza, Argentina during the winter season. We examined the potential of species of this family as indicators of PMI by measuring abundance, time of occurrence and residency time at the carcasses. We identified six species of Fanniidae: Euryomma peregrinum Meigen, Fannia albitarsis Stein, Fannia femoralis Stein, Fannia fusconotata Rondani, Fannia heydenii Wiedemann and Fannia sanihue Domínguez and Aballay. Overall, fly abundance was higher at the sunlit than at the shaded carcass. The most abundant species at the sun was F. fusconotata while at the shaded carcass F. femoralis was the most abundant species. Based on their residency time, however, species with higher potential as PMI indicators seem to be F. heydenii and F. sanihue as their residency time at the carcass was restricted to a short period of the decomposition process. Other species were present throughout most of the decomposition process or in such a low abundance (E. peregrinum) that they were not useful as indicators. These preliminary results indicate that adults of some species of Fanniidae could act as a good complementary indicator species during the winter season. In particular, F. heydenii and F. sanihue should be the focus of further studies which should also expand to other seasons. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inferring influenza global transmission networks without complete phylogenetic information.

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Aris-Brosou, Stéphane

2014-03-01

Influenza is one of the most severe respiratory infections affecting humans throughout the world, yet the dynamics of its global transmission network are still contentious. Here, I describe a novel combination of phylogenetics, time series, and graph theory to analyze 14.25 years of data stratified in space and in time, focusing on the main target of the human immune response, the hemagglutinin gene. While bypassing the complete phylogenetic inference of huge data sets, the method still extracts information suggesting that waves of genetic or of nucleotide diversity circulate continuously around the globe for subtypes that undergo sustained transmission over several seasons, such as H3N2 and pandemic H1N1/09, while diversity of prepandemic H1N1 viruses had until 2009 a noncontinuous transmission pattern consistent with a source/sink model. Irrespective of the shift in the structure of H1N1 diversity circulation with the emergence of the pandemic H1N1/09 strain, US prevalence peaks during the winter months when genetic diversity is at its lowest. This suggests that a dominant strain is generally responsible for epidemics and that monitoring genetic and/or nucleotide diversity in real time could provide public health agencies with an indirect estimate of prevalence.

Wild and domestic pig interactions at the wildlife-livestock interface of Murchison Falls National Park, Uganda, and the potential association with African Swine Fever outbreaks

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Esther eKukielka

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Bushpigs (Potamochoerus larvatus and warthogs (Phacochoerus africanus, which are widely distributed in Eastern Africa, are likely to cohabitate in the same environment with domestic pigs, facilitating the transmission of shared pathogens. However, potential interactions between bushpig, warthog and domestic pig and the resulting potential circulation of infectious diseases have rarely been investigated in Africa to date. In order to understand the dynamics of such interactions and the potential influence of human behavior and husbandry practices on them, individual interviews (n=233 and participatory rural appraisals (n=11 were carried out among Ugandan pig farmers at the edge of Murchison Falls National Park, northern Uganda. In addition, as an example of possible implications of wild and domestic pig interactions, nonlinear multivariate analysis (multiple correspondence analyses was used to investigate the potential association between the aforementioned factors (interactions and human behavior and practices and farmer reported ASF outbreaks. No direct interactions between wild pigs and domestic pig were reported in our study area. However, indirect interactions were described by 83 (35.6 % of the participants and were identified to be more common at water sources during the dry season. Equally, eight (3.4% farmers declared exposing their domestic pig to raw hunting leftovers of wild pigs. The exploratory analysis performed suggested possible associations between the farmer reported ASF outbreaks and indirect interactions, free-range housing systems, dry season, and having a warthog burrow less than 3km from the household. Our study was useful to gather local knowledge and to identify knowledge gaps about potential interactions between wild and domestic pig in this area. This information could be useful to facilitate the design of future observational studies to better understand the potential transmission of pathogens between wild and

Potential for Co-Infection of a Mosquito-Specific Flavivirus, Nhumirim Virus, to Block West Nile Virus Transmission in Mosquitoes

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Silvina Goenaga

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Nhumirim virus (NHUV is an insect-specific virus that phylogenetically affiliates with dual-host mosquito-borne flaviviruses. Previous in vitro co-infection experiments demonstrated prior or concurrent infection of Aedes albopictus C6/36 mosquito cells with NHUV resulted in a 10,000-fold reduction in viral production of West Nile virus (WNV. This interference between WNV and NHUV was observed herein in an additional Ae. albopictus mosquito cell line, C7-10. A WNV 2K peptide (V9M mutant capable of superinfection with a pre-established WNV infection demonstrated a comparable level of interference from NHUV as the parental WNV strain in C6/36 and C7-10 cells. Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex pipiens mosquitoes intrathoracically inoculated with NHUVandWNV, or solely withWNVas a control, were allowed to extrinsically incubate the viruses up to nine and 14 days, respectively, and transmissibility and replication of WNV was determined. The proportion of Cx. quinquefasciatus mosquitoes capable of transmitting WNV was significantly lower for the WNV/NHUV group than the WNV control at seven and nine days post inoculation (dpi, while no differences were observed in the Cx. pipiens inoculation group. By dpi nine, a 40% reduction in transmissibility in mosquitoes from the dual inoculation group was observed compared to the WNV-only control. These data indicate the potential that infection of some Culex spp. vectors with NHUV could serve as a barrier for efficient transmissibility of flaviviruses associated with human disease.

Controllable asymmetric transmission via gap-tunable acoustic metasurface

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Liu, Bingyi; Jiang, Yongyuan

2018-04-01

In this work, we utilize the acoustic gradient metasurface (AGM) of a bilayer configuration to realize the controllable asymmetric transmission. Relying on the adjustable gap between the two composing layers, the metasurface could switch from symmetric transmission to asymmetric transmission at a certain gap value. The underlying mechanism is attributed to the interference between the forward diffracted waves scattered by the surface bound waves at two air-AGM interfaces, which is apparently influenced by the interlayer distance. We further utilize the hybrid acoustic elements to construct the desired gradient metasurface with a tunable gap and validate the controllable asymmetric transmission with full-wave simulations. Our work provides the solution for actively controlling the transmission property of an acoustic element, which shows potential application in acoustic communication as a dynamic tunable acoustic diode.

The potential for flower nectar to allow mosquito to mosquito transmission of Francisella tularensis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Kenney

Full Text Available Francisella tularensis is disseminated in nature by biting arthropods such as mosquitoes. The relationship between mosquitoes and F. tularensis in nature is highly ambiguous, due in part to the fact that mosquitoes have caused significant tularemia outbreaks despite being classified as a mechanical vector of F. tularensis. One possible explanation for mosquitoes being a prominent, yet mechanical vector is that these insects feed on flower nectar between blood meals, allowing for transmission of F. tularensis between mosquitoes. Here, we aimed to assess whether F. tularensis could survive in flower nectar. Moreover, we examined if mosquitoes could interact with or ingest and transmit F. tularensis from one source of nectar to another. F. tularensis exhibited robust survivability in flower nectar with concentrations of viable bacteria remaining consistent with the rich growth medium. Furthermore, F. tularensis was able to survive (albeit to a lesser extent in 30% sucrose (a nectar surrogate over a period of time consistent with that of a typical flower bloom. Although we observed diminished bacterial survival in the nectar surrogate, mosquitoes that fed on this material became colonized with F. tularensis. Finally, colonized mosquitoes were capable of transferring F. tularensis to a sterile nectar surrogate. These data suggest that flower nectar may be capable of serving as a temporary source of F. tularensis that could contribute to the amplification of outbreaks. Mosquitoes that feed on an infected mammalian host and subsequently feed on flower nectar could deposit some F. tularensis bacteria into the nectar in the process. Mosquitoes subsequently feeding on this nectar source could potentially become colonized by F. tularensis. Thus, the possibility exists that flower nectar may allow for vector-vector transmission of F. tularensis.

Transcending Transmission

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schoeneborn, Dennis; Trittin, Hannah

2013-01-01

Purpose – Extant research on corporate social responsibility (CSR) communication primarily relies on a transmission model of communication that treats organizations and communication as distinct phenomena. This approach has been criticized for neglecting the formative role of communication...... in the emergence of organizations. This paper seeks to propose to reconceptualize CSR communication by drawing on the “communication constitutes organizations” (CCO) perspective. Design/methodology/approach – This is a conceptual paper that explores the implications of switching from an instrumental...... to a constitutive notion of communication. Findings – The study brings forth four main findings: from the CCO view, organizations are constituted by several, partly dissonant, and potentially contradictory communicative practices. From that viewpoint, the potential impact of CSR communication becomes a matter...

Changes in composition, cellulose degradability and biochemical methane potential of Miscanthus species during the growing season.

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Xiaowei; Li, Chao; Liu, Jing; Yi, Zili; Han, Yejun

2017-07-01

The composition, cellulose degradability and biochemical methane potential (BMP) of M. sinensis, M. floridulus, Miscanthus×giganteus and M. lutarioriparius were investigated concomitantly at different growth/harvest times during their growing season. For all the four species, there was only a slight change in the compositional content. Meanwhile there was a huge change in the BMP values. At the growth time of 60days the BMPs ranged from 247.1 to 266.5mlg -1 VS. As growth time was prolonged, the BMPs decreased by 11-35%. For each species, the BMP was positively correlated to the cellulose degradability with the correlation coefficients (R 2 ) ranging from 0.8055 to 0.9925. This suggests that besides the biomass yield, it is justifiable to consider cellulose degradability when selecting the suitable harvest time for biofuels production from Miscanthus, especially in tropical and subtropical regions where Miscanthus can be harvested twice or more within a year. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Storage, transmission and distribution of hydrogen

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Kelley, J. H.; Hagler, R., Jr.

1979-01-01

Current practices and future requirements for the storage, transmission and distribution of hydrogen are reviewed in order to identify inadequacies to be corrected before hydrogen can achieve its full potential as a substitute for fossil fuels. Consideration is given to the storage of hydrogen in underground solution-mined salt caverns, portable high-pressure containers and dewars, pressure vessels and aquifers and as metal hydrides, hydrogen transmission in evacuated double-walled insulated containers and by pipeline, and distribution by truck and internal distribution networks. Areas for the improvement of these techniques are indicated, and these technological deficiencies, including materials development, low-cost storage and transmission methods, low-cost, long-life metal hydrides and novel methods for hydrogen storage, are presented as challenges for research and development.

Bovine coronavirus in naturally and experimentally exposed calves; viral shedding and the potential for transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Oma, Veslemøy Sunniva; Tråvén, Madeleine; Alenius, Stefan; Myrmel, Mette; Stokstad, Maria

2016-06-13

Bovine coronavirus (BCoV) is a widely distributed pathogen, causing disease and economic losses in the cattle industry worldwide. Prevention of virus spread is impeded by a lack of basic knowledge concerning viral shedding and transmission potential in individual animals. The aims of the study were to investigate the duration and quantity of BCoV shedding in feces and nasal secretions related to clinical signs, the presence of virus in blood and tissues and to test the hypothesis that seropositive calves are not infectious to naïve in-contact calves three weeks after BCoV infection. A live animal experiment was conducted, with direct contact between animal groups for 24 h as challenge procedure. Four naïve calves were commingled with a group of six naturally infected calves and sequentially euthanized. Two naïve sentinel calves were commingled with the experimentally exposed group three weeks after exposure. Nasal swabs, feces, blood and tissue samples were analyzed for viral RNA by RT-qPCR, and virus isolation was performed on nasal swabs. Serum was analyzed for BCoV antibodies. The calves showed mild general signs, and the most prominent signs were from the respiratory system. The overall clinical score corresponded well with the shedding of viral RNA the first three weeks after challenge. General depression and cough were the signs that correlated best with shedding of BCoV RNA, while peak respiratory rate and peak rectal temperature appeared more than a week later than the peak shedding. Nasal shedding preceded fecal shedding, and the calves had detectable amounts of viral RNA intermittently in feces through day 35 and in nasal secretions through day 28, however virus isolation was unsuccessful from day six and day 18 from the two calves investigated. Viral RNA was not detected in blood, but was found in lymphatic tissue through day 42 after challenge. Although the calves were shedding BCoV RNA 21 days after infection the sentinel animals were not infected

Seasonal Prediction of Taiwan's Streamflow Using Teleconnection Patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chia-Jeng; Lee, Tsung-Yu

2017-04-01

Seasonal streamflow as an integrated response to complex hydro-climatic processes can be subject to activity of prevailing weather systems potentially modulated by large-scale climate oscillations (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO). To develop a seamless seasonal forecasting system in Taiwan, this study assesses how significant Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow in different seasons correlate with selected teleconnection patterns. Long-term precipitation and streamflow data in three major precipitation seasons, namely the spring rains (February to April), Mei-Yu (May and June), and typhoon (July to September) seasons, are derived at 28 upstream and 13 downstream catchments in Taiwan. The three seasons depict a complete wet period of Taiwan as well as many regions bearing similar climatic conditions in East Asia. Lagged correlation analysis is then performed to investigate how the precipitation and streamflow data correlate with predominant teleconnection indices at varied lead times. Teleconnection indices are selected only if they show certain linkage with weather systems and activity in the three seasons based on previous literature. For instance, the ENSO and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, proven to influence East Asian climate across seasons and summer typhoon activity, respectively, are included in the list of climate indices for correlation analysis. Significant correlations found between Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow and teleconnection indices are further examined by a climate regime shift (CRS) test to identify any abrupt changes in the correlations. The understanding of existing CRS is useful for informing the forecasting system of the changes in the predictor-predictand relationship. To evaluate prediction skill in the three seasons and skill differences between precipitation and streamflow, hindcasting experiments of precipitation and streamflow are conducted using stepwise linear regression models. Discussion and suggestions for coping

Geo-environmental model for the prediction of potential transmission risk of Dirofilaria in an area with dry climate and extensive irrigated crops. The case of Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Simón, Luis; Afonin, Alexandr; López-Díez, Lucía Isabel; González-Miguel, Javier; Morchón, Rodrigo; Carretón, Elena; Montoya-Alonso, José Alberto; Kartashev, Vladimir; Simón, Fernando

2014-03-01

Zoonotic filarioses caused by Dirofilaria immitis and Dirofilaria repens are transmitted by culicid mosquitoes. Therefore Dirofilaria transmission depends on climatic factors like temperature and humidity. In spite of the dry climate of most of the Spanish territory, there are extensive irrigated crops areas providing moist habitats favourable for mosquito breeding. A GIS model to predict the risk of Dirofilaria transmission in Spain, based on temperatures and rainfall data as well as in the distribution of irrigated crops areas, is constructed. The model predicts that potential risk of Dirofilaria transmission exists in all the Spanish territory. Highest transmission risk exists in several areas of Andalucía, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia, Valencia, Aragón and Cataluña, where moderate/high temperatures coincide with extensive irrigated crops. High risk in Balearic Islands and in some points of Canary Islands, is also predicted. The lowest risk is predicted in Northern cold and scarcely or non-irrigated dry Southeastern areas. The existence of irrigations locally increases transmission risk in low rainfall areas of the Spanish territory. The model can contribute to implement rational preventive therapy guidelines in accordance with the transmission characteristics of each local area. Moreover, the use of humidity-related factors could be of interest in future predictions to be performed in countries with similar environmental characteristics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What We Know About Tuberculosis Transmission: An Overview.

Science.gov (United States)

Churchyard, Gavin; Kim, Peter; Shah, N Sarita; Rustomjee, Roxana; Gandhi, Neel; Mathema, Barun; Dowdy, David; Kasmar, Anne; Cardenas, Vicky

2017-11-03

Tuberculosis remains a global health problem with an enormous burden of disease, estimated at 10.4 million new cases in 2015. To stop the tuberculosis epidemic, it is critical that we interrupt tuberculosis transmission. Further, the interventions required to interrupt tuberculosis transmission must be targeted to high-risk groups and settings. A simple cascade for tuberculosis transmission has been proposed in which (1) a source case of tuberculosis (2) generates infectious particles (3) that survive in the air and (4) are inhaled by a susceptible individual (5) who may become infected and (6) then has the potential to develop tuberculosis. Interventions that target these events will interrupt tuberculosis transmission and accelerate the decline in tuberculosis incidence and mortality. The purpose of this article is to provide a high-level overview of what is known about tuberculosis transmission, using the tuberculosis transmission cascade as a framework, and to set the scene for the articles in this series, which address specific aspects of tuberculosis transmission. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C; Ernst, Kacey

2013-01-01

Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change. We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance. Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host-species interactions. Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.

Out-of-season recollection of drug use for seasonal IgE-mediated rhinitis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bødtger, Uffe; Malling, Hans-Jørgen; Poulsen, Lars K

2005-01-01

in a double-blind study. Drug use was recorded daily during the season 2000 and out-seasonally 6 months after the seasons 1999 and 2000. The mean daily drug use was transformed into a 4-point categorical scale for simplicity and was calculated for the out-seasonal rating and for 6 in-seasonal periods...

Quantifying anuran microhabitat use to infer the potential for parasite transmission between invasive cane toads and two species of Australian native frogs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lígia Pizzatto

Full Text Available Parasites that are carried by invasive species can infect native taxa, with devastating consequences. In Australia, invading cane toads (Rhinella marina carry lungworm parasites (Rhabdias pseudosphaerocephala that (based on previous laboratory studies can infect native treefrogs (Litoria caerulea and L. splendida. To assess the potential of parasite transmission from the invader to the native species (and from one infected native frog to another, we used surveys and radiotelemetry to quantify anuran microhabitat use, and proximity to other anurans, in two sites in tropical Australia. Unsurprisingly, treefrogs spent much of their time off the ground (especially by day, and in undisturbed forests but terrestrial activity was common at night (especially in anthropogenically modified habitats. Microhabitat overlap between cane toads and frogs was generally low, except at night in disturbed areas, whereas overlap between the two frog species was high. The situations of highest overlap, and hence with the greatest danger of parasite transmission, involve aggregations of frogs within crevices by day, and use of open ground by all three anuran species at night. Overall, microhabitat divergence between toads and frogs should reduce, but not eliminate, the transmission of lungworms from invasive toads to vulnerable native frogs.

The association of drinking water quality and sewage disposal with Helicobacter pylori incidence in infants: the potential role of water-borne transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Travis, Penny B; Goodman, Karen J; O'Rourke, Kathleen M; Groves, Frank D; Sinha, Debajyoti; Nicholas, Joyce S; VanDerslice, Jim; Lackland, Daniel; Mena, Kristina D

2010-03-01

The mode of transmission of Helicobacter pylori, a bacterium causing gastric cancer and peptic ulcer disease, is unknown although waterborne transmission is a likely pathway. This study investigated the hypothesis that access to treated water and a sanitary sewerage system reduces the H. pylori incidence rate, using data from 472 participants in a cohort study that followed children in Juarez, Mexico, and El Paso, Texas, from April 1998, with caretaker interviews and the urea breath test for detecting H. pylori infection at target intervals of six months from birth through 24 months of age. The unadjusted hazard ratio comparing bottled/vending machine water to a municipal water supply was 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50, 1.01) and comparing a municipal sewer connection to a septic tank or cesspool, 0.85 (95% CI: 0.60, 1.20). After adjustment for maternal education and country, the hazard ratios decreased slightly to 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.49, 1.00) and 0.77 (95% confidence interval: 0.50, 1.21), respectively. These results provide moderate support for potential waterborne transmission of H. pylori.

Transmission line capital costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, K.R.; Brown, D.R.

1995-05-01

The displacement or deferral of conventional AC transmission line installation is a key benefit associated with several technologies being developed with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Management (OEM). Previous benefits assessments conducted within OEM have been based on significantly different assumptions for the average cost per mile of AC transmission line. In response to this uncertainty, an investigation of transmission line capital cost data was initiated. The objective of this study was to develop a database for preparing preliminary estimates of transmission line costs. An extensive search of potential data sources identified databases maintained by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) as superior sources of transmission line cost data. The BPA and WAPA data were adjusted to a common basis and combined together. The composite database covers voltage levels from 13.8 to 765 W, with cost estimates for a given voltage level varying depending on conductor size, tower material type, tower frame type, and number of circuits. Reported transmission line costs vary significantly, even for a given voltage level. This can usually be explained by variation in the design factors noted above and variation in environmental and land (right-of-way) costs, which are extremely site-specific. Cost estimates prepared from the composite database were compared to cost data collected by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for investor-owned utilities from across the United States. The comparison was hampered because the only design specifications included with the FERC data were voltage level and line length. Working within this limitation, the FERC data were not found to differ significantly from the composite database. Therefore, the composite database was judged to be a reasonable proxy for estimating national average costs

Volatile Transport in Pluto's Super Seasons

Science.gov (United States)

Earle, Alissa M.; Binzel, Richard; Young, Leslie; Stern, S. Alan; Olkin, Catherine B.; Ennico, Kimberly; Moore, Jeffrey M.; Weaver, Harold A.; NASA New Horizons Composition Team, The NASA New Horizons GGI Team

2016-10-01

The data returned from NASA's New Horizons' reconnaissance of the Pluto system shows striking albedo variations from polar to equatorial latitudes as well as sharp boundaries for longitudinal variations. Pluto has a high obliquity (currently around 119 degrees) which varies by more than 23 degrees (between roughly 103 and 127 degrees) over a period of less than 3 million years. These obliquity properties, combined with Pluto's orbital regression in longitude of perihelion (360 degrees over 3.7 million years), create epochs of "Super Seasons" on Pluto. A "Super Season" occurs, for example, when Pluto happens to be pole-on towards the Sun at the same time as perihelion. In such a case, one pole experiences a short, intense summer (relative to its long-term average) followed by a longer than average period of winter darkness. By complement, the other pole experiences a much longer, but less intense summer and short winter season. We explore the relationship between albedo variations and volatile transport for the current epoch as well as historical epochs during which Pluto experienced these "Super Seasons". Our investigation suggests Pluto's orbit creates the potential for runaway albedo variations, particularly in the equatorial region, which would create and support stark longitudinal contrasts like the ones we see between the informally named Tombaugh and Cthulhu Regios.This work was supported by the NASA New Horizons mission.

Tuberculosis transmission in the Indigenous peoples of the Canadian prairies.

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Smit; Paulsen, Catherine; Heffernan, Courtney; Saunders, Duncan; Sharma, Meenu; King, Malcolm; Hoeppner, Vernon; Orr, Pamela; Kunimoto, Dennis; Menzies, Dick; Christianson, Sara; Wolfe, Joyce; Boffa, Jody; McMullin, Kathleen; Lopez-Hille, Carmen; Senthilselvan, Ambikaipakan; Long, Richard

2017-01-01

The prairie provinces of Canada. To characterize tuberculosis (TB) transmission among the Indigenous and non-Indigenous Canadian-born peoples of the prairie provinces of Canada. A prospective epidemiologic study of consecutively diagnosed adult (age ≥ 14 years) Canadian-born culture-positive pulmonary TB cases on the prairies, hereafter termed "potential transmitters," and the transmission events generated by them. "Transmission events" included new positive tuberculin skin tests (TSTs), TST conversions, and secondary cases among contacts. In the years 2007 and 2008, 222 potential transmitters were diagnosed on the prairies. Of these, the vast majority (198; 89.2%) were Indigenous peoples who resided in either an Indigenous community (135; 68.2%) or a major metropolitan area (44; 22.2%). Over the 4.5-year period between July 1st, 2006 and December 31st 2010, 1085 transmission events occurred in connection with these potential transmitters. Most of these transmission events were attributable to potential transmitters who identified as Indigenous (94.5%). With a few notable exceptions most transmitters and their infected contacts resided in the same community type. In multivariate models positive smear status and a higher number of close contacts were associated with increased transmission; adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), 4.30 [1.88, 9.84] and 2.88 [1.31, 6.34], respectively. Among infected contacts, being Indigenous was associated with disease progression; OR and 95% CI, 3.59 [1.27, 10.14] and 6.89 [2.04, 23.25] depending upon Indigenous group, while being an infected casual contact was less likely than being a close contact to be associated with disease progression, 0.66 [0.44, 1.00]. In the prairie provinces of Canada and among Canadian-born persons, Indigenous peoples account for the vast majority of cases with the potential to transmit as well as the vast majority of infected contacts. Active case finding and preventative therapy

Seasonal prolactin secretion and its role in seasonal reproduction: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Curlewis, J D

1992-01-01

The majority of seasonally breeding mammals show a seasonal pattern of prolactin secretion with peak concentrations in spring or summer and a nadir in autumn or winter. Photoperiod influences prolactin secretion via its effects on the secretion of the pineal hormone melatonin. Preliminary evidence suggests that the effects of melatonin on both prolactin and gonadotrophin secretion are via a common target area, possibly within the anterior hypothalamus, and that differences in response to photoperiod may be due to differences in the processing and/or interpretation of the melatonin signal. In contrast to seasonal gonadotrophin secretion, the seasonal changes in prolactin are not due to changes in the sensitivity of a feedback loop and so must be due to direct effects on the hypothalamic pathways that control prolactin secretion. Little else can be said with confidence about the neuroendocrine mechanisms that lead to the seasonal changes in prolactin secretion. Dopamine and noradrenaline turnover in the arcuate nucleus and median eminence decrease under short daylength. If catecholamine turnover in these structures is positively correlated with catecholamine concentrations in the long or short hypophysial portal vessels, it is unlikely that the decrease in prolactin concentration in winter is due to the effects of increased concentrations of dopamine or noradrenaline in the portal vessels. There is, however, evidence for increased pituitary sensitivity to dopamine under short daylength, so increased dopamine concentrations may not be required for suppression of prolactin secretion at this time. In addition to the diminished secretion of prolactin under short daylength, rate of prolactin synthesis and pituitary content of prolactin also decline although the mechanisms that regulate these changes are poorly understood. Although all seasonal breeders show a seasonal change in prolactin secretion, there are continuously breeding species in which prolactin secretion is

Transmission problem for the Brinkman system

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Medková, Dagmar

2014-01-01

Roč. 59, č. 12 (2014), s. 1664-1678 ISSN 1747-6933 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP201/11/1304 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : Brinkman system * transmission problem * single- layer potential * double layer potential Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.610, year: 2014 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17476933.2013.870563

Automatic remote monitoring utilizing daily transmissions: transmission reliability and implantable cardioverter defibrillator battery longevity in the TRUST trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Varma, Niraj; Love, Charles J; Schweikert, Robert; Moll, Philip; Michalski, Justin; Epstein, Andrew E

2018-04-01

Benefits of automatic remote home monitoring (HM) among implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) patients may require high transmission frequency. However, transmission reliability and effects on battery longevity remain uncertain. We hypothesized that HM would have high transmission success permitting punctual guideline based follow-up, and improve battery longevity. This was tested in the prospective randomized TRUST trial. Implantable cardioverter defibrillator patients were randomized post-implant 2:1 to HM (n = 908) (transmit daily) or to Conventional in-person monitoring [conventional management (CM), n = 431 (HM disabled)]. In both groups, five evaluations were scheduled every 3 months for 15 months. Home Monitoring technology performance was assessed by transmissions received vs. total possible, and number of scheduled HM checks failing because of missed transmissions. Battery longevity was compared in HM vs. CM at 15 months, and again in HM 3 years post-implant using continuously transmitted data. Transmission success per patient was 91% (median follow-up of 434 days). Overall, daily HM transmissions were received in 315 795 of a potential 363 450 days (87%). Only 55/3759 (1.46%) of unsuccessful scheduled evaluations in HM were attributed to transmission loss. Shock frequency and pacing percentage were similar in HM vs. CM. Fifteen month battery longevity was 12% greater in HM (93.2 ± 8.8% vs. 83.5 ± 6.0% CM, P battery longevity was 50.9 ± 9.1% (median 52%) at 36 months. Automatic remote HM demonstrated robust transmission reliability. Daily transmission load may be sustained without reducing battery longevity. Home Monitoring conserves battery longevity and tracks long term device performance. ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT00336284.

Changing Seasonality and the Role of the Shoulder Season - Evidence from Denamrk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Nils Karl

2009-01-01

the issue of the shoulder season in a time series framework. Departing from a discussion of the nature of types of seasonal variation, a test is set up in order to examine the impact of the shoulder season. The test examines the impact on the mean share of hotel nights in the shoulder season months in two...

Model-based assessment of the potential of seasonal aquifer thermal energy storage and recovery as a groundwater ecosystem service for the Brussels-Capital Region

Science.gov (United States)

Anibas, Christian; Huysmans, Marijke

2015-04-01

Urban areas are characterized by their concentrated demand of energy, applying a high pressure on urban ecosystems including atmosphere, soils and groundwater. In the light of global warming, urbanization and an evolving energy system, it is important to know how urbanized areas can contribute to their own energy demands. One option is to use the possibilities aquifers offer as an ecosystem service (BONTE et al., 2011). If used effectively an improvement in air and groundwater quality is achieved. Additionally, the more efficient distribution of the used energy may also lead to a decrease in primary energy consumption (ZUURBIER, 2013). Therefore, investigations of the potential of seasonal aquifer thermal energy storage and recovery (ATES) for the Brussels-Capital Region, Belgium is being conducted. The potential of ATES systems are of special interest for energy demands in high density urban areas because of such infrastructure as office buildings, schools, hospitals and shopping malls. In an open water circuit ATES systems consist of two or more groundwater wells, where in seasonal cycles one subtracts and the other recharges water to the aquifer. Heat pumps use the heat capacity of water for heating or cooling a building. An important limitation of the methodology is the quality of the groundwater used (i.e. precipitation of Fe- or Mn-oxides can decrease the yield). However, ATES systems on the other hand can also improve groundwater quality and groundwater ecosystems. The current knowledge of the potential for ATES systems in the Brussels-Capital Region is based on geological assessments from VITO (2007). The Brussels-Capital Region is divided into a western and eastern section with respect to geology. While the western part has less favorable conditions for ATES, the eastern is composed of the Brussels Sand formation, which is a 20-40 m thick aquifer layer that has the highest potential for ATES systems in the region. By applying groundwater flow and heat

The Cost of Transmission for Wind Energy: A Review of Transmission Planning Studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mills, Andrew D.; Wiser, Ryan; Porter, Kevin

2009-02-02

The rapid development of wind power that the United States has experienced over the last several years has been coupled with a growing concern that wind development will require substantial additions to the nation's transmission infrastructure. Transmission is particularly important for wind power due to the locational dependence of wind resources, the relatively low capacity factor of wind plants, and the mismatch between the short lead time to build a new wind project and the longer lead time often needed to plan, permit, and construct transmission. It is clear that institutional issues related to transmission planning, siting, and cost allocation will pose major obstacles to accelerated wind power deployment, but also of concern is the potential cost of this infrastructure build out. Simply put, how much extra cost will society bear to deliver wind power to load centers? Without an answer to this question, there can be no consensus on whether or not the cost of developing transmission for wind will be a major barrier to further wind deployment, or whether the institutional barriers to transmission expansion are likely to be of more immediate concern. In this report, we review a sample of 40 detailed transmission studies that have included wind power. These studies cover a broad geographic area, and were completed from 2001-2008. Our primary goal in reviewing these studies is to develop a better understanding of the transmission costs needed to access growing quantities of wind generation. A secondary goal is to gain a better appreciation of the differences in transmission planning approaches in order to identify those methodologies that seem most able to estimate the incremental transmission costs associated with wind development. Finally, we hope that the resulting dataset and discussion might be used to inform the assumptions, methods, and results of higher-level assessment models that are sometimes used to estimate the cost of wind deployment (e.g. NEMS

Phlebotominae sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae): potential vectors of American cutaneous leishmaniasis agents in the area associated with the Santo Antônio Hydroelectric System in Western Amazonian Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Galardo, Allan Kardec Ribeiro; Galardo, Clícia Denis; Silveira, Guilherme Abbad; Ribeiro, Kaio Augusto Nabas; Hijjar, Andréa Valadão; Oliveira, Liliane Leite; Dos Santos, Thiago Vasconcelos

2015-01-01

An entomological study was conducted as part of a vector-monitoring program in the area associated with the Santo Antônio hydroelectric system in State of Rondônia, Western Amazonian Brazil. Fourteen sampling sites were surveyed to obtain data on the potential vectors of Leishmania spp. in the area. Sand flies were collected from 2011 to 2014 during the months of January/February (rainy season), May/June (dry season), and September/October (intermediary season) using light traps arranged in three vertical strata (0.5, 1, and 20m). A total of 7,575 individuals belonging to 62 species/subspecies were collected. The five most frequently collected sand flies were Psychodopygus davisi (Root) (36.67%), Trichophoromyia ubiquitalis (Mangabeira) (8.51%), Nyssomyia umbratilis (Ward & Fraiha) (6.14%), Bichromomyia flaviscutellata (Mangabeira) (5.74%), and Psychodopygus complexus (Mangabeira) (5.25%). These species have been implicated in the transmission of American cutaneous leishmaniasis agents in the Brazilian Amazon region and described as potential vectors of this disease in the study area. Additional surveillance is needed, especially in areas where these five species of sand fly are found.

Phlebotominae sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae: potential vectors of American cutaneous leishmaniasis agents in the area associated with the Santo Antônio Hydroelectric System in Western Amazonian Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Allan Kardec Ribeiro Galardo

2015-06-01

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: An entomological study was conducted as part of a vector-monitoring program in the area associated with the Santo Antônio hydroelectric system in State of Rondônia, Western Amazonian Brazil. METHODS: Fourteen sampling sites were surveyed to obtain data on the potential vectors of Leishmania spp. in the area. Sand flies were collected from 2011 to 2014 during the months of January/February (rainy season, May/June (dry season, and September/October (intermediary season using light traps arranged in three vertical strata (0.5, 1, and 20m. RESULTS : A total of 7,575 individuals belonging to 62 species/subspecies were collected. The five most frequently collected sand flies were Psychodopygus davisi (Root (36.67%, Trichophoromyia ubiquitalis (Mangabeira (8.51%, Nyssomyia umbratilis (Ward & Fraiha (6.14%, Bichromomyia flaviscutellata (Mangabeira (5.74%, and Psychodopygus complexus (Mangabeira (5.25%. These species have been implicated in the transmission of American cutaneous leishmaniasis agents in the Brazilian Amazon region and described as potential vectors of this disease in the study area. CONCLUSIONS: Additional surveillance is needed, especially in areas where these five species of sand fly are found.

Seasonal wave power distribution around the Indian coast

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Chandramohan, P.; Nayak, B.U.

different seasons viz. southwest monsoon, northeast monsoon and nonmonsoon period were computed for various regions in the form of 10 grids and are presented here. The study shows that average annual wave power potential per metre length of the wave crest...

Adaptation to seasonality and the winter freeze

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jill Christine Preston

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Flowering plants initially diversified during the Mesozoic era at least 140 million years ago in regions of the world where temperate seasonal environments were not encountered. Since then several cooling events resulted in the contraction of warm and wet environments and the establishment of novel temperate zones in both hemispheres. In response, less than half of modern angiosperm families have members that evolved specific adaptations to cold seasonal climates, including cold acclimation, freezing tolerance, endodormancy, and vernalization responsiveness. Despite compelling evidence for multiple independent origins, the level of genetic constraint on the evolution of adaptations to seasonal cold is not well understood. However, the recent increase in molecular genetic studies examining the response of model and crop species to seasonal cold offers new insight into the evolutionary lability of these traits. This insight has major implications for our understanding of complex trait evolution, and the potential role of local adaptation in response to past and future climate change. In this review, we discuss the biochemical, morphological, and developmental basis of adaptations to seasonal cold, and synthesize recent literature on the genetic basis of these traits in a phylogenomic context. We find evidence for multiple genetic links between distinct physiological responses to cold, possibly reinforcing the coordinated expression of these traits. Furthermore, repeated recruitment of the same or similar ancestral pathways suggests that land plants might be somewhat pre-adapted to dealing with temperature stress, perhaps making inducible cold traits relatively easy to evolve.

Variation in water potential, hydraulic characteristics and water source use in montane Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine trees in southwestern Alberta and consequences for seasonal changes in photosynthetic capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Shilo F; Flanagan, Lawrence B; Sharp, Eric J; Cai, Tiebo

2012-02-01

Tree species response to climate change-induced shifts in the hydrological cycle depends on many physiological traits, particularly variation in water relations characteristics. We evaluated differences in shoot water potential, vulnerability of branches to reductions in hydraulic conductivity, and water source use between Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm. (lodgepole pine) and Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco (interior Douglas-fir), and determined the consequences for seasonal changes in photosynthetic capacity. The Douglas-fir site had soil with greater depth, finer texture and higher organic matter content than soil at the lodgepole pine site, all factors that increased the storage of soil moisture. While the measured xylem vulnerability curves were quite similar for the two species, Douglas-fir had lower average midday shoot water potentials than did lodgepole pine. This implied that lodgepole pine exhibited stronger stomatal control of transpiration than Douglas-fir, which helped to reduce the magnitude of the water potential gradient required to access water from drying soil. Stable hydrogen isotope measurements indicated that Douglas-fir increased the use of groundwater during mid-summer when precipitation inputs were low, while lodgepole pine did not. There was a greater reduction of photosynthetic carbon gain in lodgepole pine compared with Douglas-fir when the two tree species were exposed to seasonal declines in soil water content. The contrasting patterns of seasonal variation in photosynthetic capacity observed for the two species were a combined result of differences in soil characteristics at the separate sites and the inherent physiological differences between the species.

Merchant electricity transmission expansion: A European case study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kristiansen, T. [RBS Sempra Commodities, 155 Bishopsgate, London EC2M3TZ (United Kingdom); Rosellon, J. [Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas (CIDE), Division de Economia, Carretera Mexico-Toluca 3655, Lomas de Santa Fe, 01210 Mexico D.F. (Mexico); German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Mohrenstrasse 58, 10117, Berlin (Germany)

2010-10-15

We apply a merchant transmission model to the trilateral market coupling (TLC) arrangement among the Netherlands, Belgium and France as an example, and note that it could further be applied to other market splitting or coupling of Europe's different national power markets. In this merchant framework the system operator allocates financial transmission rights (FTRs) to investors in transmission expansion based upon their preferences, and revenue adequacy. The independent system operator (ISO) preserves some proxy FTRs to manage potential negative externalities that may result from expansion projects. This scheme could help European market coupling arrangements attract additional investment. (author)

Merchant electricity transmission expansion: A European case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristiansen, T.; Rosellon, J.

2010-01-01

We apply a merchant transmission model to the trilateral market coupling (TLC) arrangement among the Netherlands, Belgium and France as an example, and note that it could further be applied to other market splitting or coupling of Europe's different national power markets. In this merchant framework the system operator allocates financial transmission rights (FTRs) to investors in transmission expansion based upon their preferences, and revenue adequacy. The independent system operator (ISO) preserves some proxy FTRs to manage potential negative externalities that may result from expansion projects. This scheme could help European market coupling arrangements attract additional investment. (author)

Effect of thermal environment on the temporal, spatial and seasonal occurrence of measles in Ondo state, Nigeria

Science.gov (United States)

Omonijo, Akinyemi Gabriel; Matzarakis, Andreas; Oguntoke, Olusegun; Adeofun, Clement Olabinjo

2012-09-01

We investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics, as well as the seasonal occurrence of measles in Ondo state, Nigeria, to better understand the role of the thermal environment in the occurrence of the childhood killer disease measles, which ranks among the top ten leading causes of child deaths worldwide. The linkages between measles and atmospheric environmental factors were examined by correlating human-biometeorological parameters in the study area with reported clinical cases of measles for the period 1998-2008. We also applied stepwise regression analysis in order to determine the human-biometeorological parameters that lead to statistical changes in reported clinical cases of measles. We found that high reported cases of measles are associated with the least populated areas, where rearing and cohabitation of livestock/domestic animals within human communities are common. There was a significant correlation ( P measles and human-biometeorological parameters except wind speed and vapour pressure. High transmission of measles occurred in the months of January to May during the dry season when human thermal comfort indices are very high. This highlights the importance of the thermal environment in disease demographics since it accounted for more than 40% variation in measles transmission within the study period.

Small mammal use of native warm-season and non-native cool-season grass forage fields

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan L Klimstra,; Christopher E Moorman,; Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Craig A Harper,

2015-01-01

Recent emphasis has been put on establishing native warm-season grasses for forage production because it is thought native warm-season grasses provide higher quality wildlife habitat than do non-native cool-season grasses. However, it is not clear whether native warm-season grass fields provide better resources for small mammals than currently are available in non-native cool-season grass forage production fields. We developed a hierarchical spatially explicit capture-recapture model to compare abundance of hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus), white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus), and house mice (Mus musculus) among 4 hayed non-native cool-season grass fields, 4 hayed native warm-season grass fields, and 4 native warm-season grass-forb ("wildlife") fields managed for wildlife during 2 summer trapping periods in 2009 and 2010 of the western piedmont of North Carolina, USA. Cotton rat abundance estimates were greater in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields and greater in native warm-season grass fields than in non-native cool-season grass fields. Abundances of white-footed mouse and house mouse populations were lower in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields, but the abundances were not different between the native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields. Lack of cover following haying in non-native cool-season grass and native warm-season grass fields likely was the key factor limiting small mammal abundance, especially cotton rats, in forage fields. Retention of vegetation structure in managed forage production systems, either by alternately resting cool-season and warm-season grass forage fields or by leaving unharvested field borders, should provide refugia for small mammals during haying events.

Wheeling and transmission system service policy in North America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Casazza, J.A.; Schultz, A.J.; Limmer, H.D.

1991-01-01

This paper provides a review and discussion of the status of wheeling in the USA and Canada; the pros and cons of the new policies that are evolving and under consideration for wheeling and transmission access; specific case examples of some of the difficulties that have arisen; and the potential for new transmission technology. (author)

Accuracy of PfHRP2 versus Pf-pLDH antigen detection by malaria rapid diagnostic tests in hospitalized children in a seasonal hyperendemic malaria transmission area in Burkina Faso.

Science.gov (United States)

Maltha, Jessica; Guiraud, Issa; Lompo, Palpouguini; Kaboré, Bérenger; Gillet, Philippe; Van Geet, Chris; Tinto, Halidou; Jacobs, Jan

2014-01-13

In most sub-Saharan African countries malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are now used for the diagnosis of malaria. Most RDTs used detect Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein-2 (PfHRP2), though P. falciparum-specific parasite lactate dehydrogenase (Pf-pLDH)-detecting RDTs may have advantages over PfHRP2-detecting RDTs. Only few data are available on the use of RDTs in severe illness and the present study compared Pf-pLDH to PfHRP2-detection. Hospitalized children aged one month to 14 years presenting with fever or severe illness were included over one year. Venous blood samples were drawn for malaria diagnosis (microscopy and RDT), culture and complete blood count. Leftovers were stored at -80 °C and used for additional RDT analysis and PCR. An RDT targeting both PfHRP2 and Pf-pLDH was performed on all samples for direct comparison of diagnostic accuracy with microscopy as reference method. PCR was performed to explore false-positive RDT results. In 376 of 694 (54.2%) included children, malaria was microscopically confirmed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value were 100.0, 70.9, 69.4 and 100.0%, respectively for PfHRP2-detection and 98.7, 94.0, 91.6 and 99.1%, respectively for Pf-pLDH-detection. Specificity and PPV were significantly lower for PfHRP2-detection (p <0.001). For both detection antigens, specificity was lowest for children one to five years and in the rainy season. PPV for both antigens was highest in the rainy season, because of higher malaria prevalence. False positive PfHRP2 results were associated with prior anti-malarial treatment and positive PCR results (98/114 (86.0%) samples tested). Among children presenting with severe febrile illness in a seasonal hyperendemic malaria transmission area, the present study observed similar sensitivity but lower specificity and PPV of PfHRP2 compared to Pf-pLDH-detection. Further studies should assess the diagnostic accuracy and safety of an

Patterns of circulating corticosterone in a population of rattlesnakes afflicted with snake fungal disease: Stress hormones as a potential mediator of seasonal cycles in disease severity and outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Lind, Craig M.; Moore, Ignacio T.; Akçay, Çağlar; Vernasco, Ben J.; Lorch, Jeffrey M.; Farrell, Terence M.

2018-01-01

Snake fungal disease (SFD) is an emerging threat to snake populations in the United States. Fungal pathogens are often associated with a physiological stress response mediated by the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPA), and afflicted individuals may incur steep coping costs. The severity of SFD can vary seasonally; however, little is known regarding (1) how SFD infection relates to HPA activity and (2) how seasonal shifts in environment, life history, or HPA activity may interact to drive seasonal patterns of infection severity and outcomes. To test the hypothesis that SFD is associated with increased HPA activity and to identify potential environmental or physiological drivers of seasonal infection, we monitored baseline corticosterone, SFD infection severity, foraging success, body condition, and reproductive status in a field-active population of pigmy rattlesnakes. Both plasma corticosterone and the severity of clinical signs of SFD peaked in the winter. Corticosterone levels were also elevated in the fall before the seasonal rise in SFD severity. Severely symptomatic snakes were in low body condition and had elevated corticosterone levels compared to moderately infected and uninfected snakes. The monthly mean severity of SFD in the population was negatively related to population-wide estimates of body condition and temperature measured in the precedent month and positively correlated with corticosterone levels measured in the precedent month. Symptomatic females were less likely to enter reproductive bouts compared to asymptomatic females. We propose the hypothesis that the seasonal interplay among environment, host energetics, and HPA activity initiates trade-offs in the fall that drive the increase in SFD prevalence, symptom severity, and decline in condition observed in the population through winter.

Small passenger car transmission test-Chevrolet 200 transmission

Science.gov (United States)

Bujold, M. P.

1980-01-01

The small passenger car transmission was tested to supply electric vehicle manufacturers with technical information regarding the performance of commerically available transmissions which would enable them to design a more energy efficient vehicle. With this information the manufacturers could estimate vehicle driving range as well as speed and torque requirements for specific road load performance characteristics. A 1979 Chevrolet Model 200 automatic transmission was tested per a passenger car automatic transmission test code (SAE J651b) which required drive performance, coast performance, and no load test conditions. The transmission attained maximum efficiencies in the mid-eighty percent range for both drive performance tests and coast performance tests. Torque, speed and efficiency curves map the complete performance characteristics for Chevrolet Model 200 transmission.

Tracking and visualization of space-time activities for a micro-scale flu transmission study.

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Feng; Du, Fei

2013-02-07

Infectious diseases pose increasing threats to public health with increasing population density and more and more sophisticated social networks. While efforts continue in studying the large scale dissemination of contagious diseases, individual-based activity and behaviour study benefits not only disease transmission modelling but also the control, containment, and prevention decision making at the local scale. The potential for using tracking technologies to capture detailed space-time trajectories and model individual behaviour is increasing rapidly, as technological advances enable the manufacture of small, lightweight, highly sensitive, and affordable receivers and the routine use of location-aware devices has become widespread (e.g., smart cellular phones). The use of low-cost tracking devices in medical research has also been proved effective by more and more studies. This study describes the use of tracking devices to collect data of space-time trajectories and the spatiotemporal processing of such data to facilitate micro-scale flu transmission study. We also reports preliminary findings on activity patterns related to chances of influenza infection in a pilot study. Specifically, this study employed A-GPS tracking devices to collect data on a university campus. Spatiotemporal processing was conducted for data cleaning and segmentation. Processed data was validated with traditional activity diaries. The A-GPS data set was then used for visual explorations including density surface visualization and connection analysis to examine space-time activity patterns in relation to chances of influenza infection. When compared to diary data, the segmented tracking data demonstrated to be an effective alternative and showed greater accuracies in time as well as the details of routes taken by participants. A comparison of space-time activity patterns between participants who caught seasonal influenza and those who did not revealed interesting patterns. This study

Attributing Climate Conditions for Stable Malaria Transmission to Human Activity in sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Sheldrake, L.; Mitchell, D.; Allen, M. R.

2015-12-01

Temperature and precipitation limit areas of stable malaria transmission, but the effects of climate change on the disease remain controversial. Previously, studies have not separated the influence of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability, despite being an essential step in the attribution of climate change impacts. Ensembles of 2900 simulations of regional climate in sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2013, one representing realistic conditions and the other how climate might have been in the absence of human influence, were used to force a P.falciparium climate suitability model developed by the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project. Strongest signals were detected in areas of unstable transmission, indicating their heightened sensitivity to climatic factors. Evidently, impacts of human-induced climate change were unevenly distributed: the probability of conditions being suitable for stable malaria transmission were substantially reduced (increased) in the Sahel (Greater Horn of Africa (GHOA), particularly in the Ethiopian and Kenyan highlands). The length of the transmission season was correspondingly shortened in the Sahel and extended in the GHOA, by 1 to 2 months, including in Kericho (Kenya), where the role of climate change in driving recent malaria occurrence is hotly contested. Human-induced warming was primarily responsible for positive anomalies in the GHOA, while reduced rainfall caused negative anomalies in the Sahel. The latter was associated with anthropogenic impacts on the West African Monsoon, but uncertainty in the RCM's ability to reproduce precipitation trends in the region weakens confidence in the result. That said, outputs correspond well with broad-scale changes in observed endemicity, implying a potentially important contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the malaria burden during the past century. Results support the health-framing of climate risk and help indicate hotspots of climate vulnerability, providing

HIV Transmission Dynamics Among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Valverde, Eduardo E; Oster, Alexandra M; Xu, Songli; Wertheim, Joel O; Hernandez, Angela L

2017-12-15

In the United States (US), foreign-born persons are disproportionately affected by HIV and differ epidemiologically from US-born persons with diagnosed HIV infection. Understanding HIV transmission dynamics among foreign-born persons is important to guide HIV prevention efforts for these populations. We conducted molecular transmission network analysis to describe HIV transmission dynamics among foreign-born persons with diagnosed HIV. Using HIV-1 polymerase nucleotide sequences reported to the US National HIV Surveillance System for persons with diagnosed HIV infection during 2001-2013, we constructed a genetic distance-based transmission network using HIV-TRACE and examined the birth region of potential transmission partners in this network. Of 77,686 people, 12,064 (16%) were foreign born. Overall, 28% of foreign-born persons linked to at least one other person in the transmission network. Of potential transmission partners, 62% were born in the United States, 31% were born in the same region as the foreign-born person, and 7% were born in another region of the world. Most transmission partners of male foreign-born persons (63%) were born in the United States, whereas most transmission partners of female foreign-borns (57%) were born in their same world region. These finding suggests that a majority of HIV infections among foreign-born persons in our network occurred after immigrating to the United States. Efforts to prevent HIV infection among foreign-born persons in the United States should include information of the transmission networks in which these individuals acquire or transmit HIV to develop more targeted HIV prevention interventions.

Superconducting power transmission: the perils and promise

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Forsyth, E B

1976-06-01

The development of bulk electricity transmission systems must be considered in the light of changing growth rates, increasing resistances to ehv overhead transmission and the tendency to concentrate generation in fewer sites. Helium-cooled or superconducting cables possess technical characteristics which will make them suitable as utility network components for power transmission over distances of ten to several hundred miles. These properties are illustrated by considering two applications in existing electrical networks. The first is a 43 mile system to transmit 4800 MVA and the second is a potential application under study in Pennsylvania to transmit 10,000 MVA over a distance of 350 miles or so. Helium-cooled versions of these transmission systems were designed to permit technical and economic evaluations. The major groups and institutions throughout the world engaged in the development of helium-cooled cables are listed and aspects of the technical approaches are briefly described.

Effectiveness of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention in Children under Ten Years of Age in Senegal: A Stepped-Wedge Cluster-Randomised Trial.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Badara Cissé

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention (SMC with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP plus amodiaquine (AQ, given each month during the transmission season, is recommended for children living in areas of the Sahel where malaria transmission is highly seasonal. The recommendation for SMC is currently limited to children under five years of age, but, in many areas of seasonal transmission, the burden in older children may justify extending this age limit. This study was done to determine the effectiveness of SMC in Senegalese children up to ten years of age.SMC was introduced into three districts over three years in central Senegal using a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised design. A census of the population was undertaken and a surveillance system was established to record all deaths and to record all cases of malaria seen at health facilities. A pharmacovigilance system was put in place to detect adverse drug reactions. Fifty-four health posts were randomised. Nine started implementation of SMC in 2008, 18 in 2009, and a further 18 in 2010, with 9 remaining as controls. In the first year of implementation, SMC was delivered to children aged 3-59 months; the age range was then extended for the latter two years of the study to include children up to 10 years of age. Cluster sample surveys at the end of each transmission season were done to measure coverage of SMC and the prevalence of parasitaemia and anaemia, to monitor molecular markers of drug resistance, and to measure insecticide-treated net (ITN use. Entomological monitoring and assessment of costs of delivery in each health post and of community attitudes to SMC were also undertaken. About 780,000 treatments were administered over three years. Coverage exceeded 80% each month. Mortality, the primary endpoint, was similar in SMC and control areas (4.6 and 4.5 per 1000 respectively in children under 5 years and 1.3 and 1.2 per 1000 in children 5-9 years of age; the overall mortality rate ratio [SMC: no SMC

Precise measurement and calculation of 238U neutron transmissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsen, D.K.; de Saussure, G.; Silver, E.G.; Perez, R.B.

1975-01-01

The total neutron cross section of 238 U has been measured above 0.5 eV in precise transmission experiments and results are compared with ENDF/B-IV. Emphasis has been on measuring transmissions through thick samples in order to obtain accurate total cross sections in the potential-resonance interference regions between resonances. 4 figures, 1 table

Seasonal changes in chemical and mineralogical composition of sewage sludge incineration residues and their potential for metallic elements and valuable components recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Kasina, Monika; Kowalski, Piotr R.; Michalik, Marek

2017-04-01

Increasing energy needs, the implementation of the circular economy principles and rising environmental awareness caused that waste management is becoming a major social and economic issue. The EU Member States have committed to a significant reduction in the amount of waste produced and landfilled and to use their inherent energy and raw materials potential. One of the most reasonable option to fulfil these commitments is waste incineration. The aim of the waste incineration is to reduce their volume and toxicity by disinfection and detoxification at high temperatures. Thermal process and reduction of volume allows the recovery of minerals and metallic elements from residues as well as the energy production (waste-to-energy strategy) during incineration. As a result of waste incineration a variety of solid residues (bottom ash, fly ash, air pollution control residues) and technological waste (gas waste, wastewater) are produced. The goal of this study is to characterize fly ash and air pollution control (APC) residues formed as a result of municipal sewage sludge incineration in terms of their chemical and mineral composition and their extractive potential. Residues were sampled quarterly to study their seasonal changes in composition. The fly ash was a Si-P-C-Fe-Al dominated material, whereas the APC residues composition was dominated by Na-rich soluble phases. The removal of soluble phase ( 98% of the material) from the APC residues by dissolution in deionised water caused significant mass reduction and concentration of non-soluble elements. The main mineral phases in fly ash were quartz, hematite, Fe-PO4, whitlockite and feldspar, while in APC thenardite, and in lower amount calcite, apatite and quartz were present. The chemical composition of fly ash was practically invariable in different seasons, but significant differences were observed in APC residues. The lowest concentrations of all elements and the highest TOC content were measured in the samples

Survey of Transmission Cost Allocation Methodologies for Regional Transmission Organizations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fink, S.; Porter, K.; Mudd, C.; Rogers, J.

2011-02-01

The report presents transmission cost allocation methodologies for reliability transmission projects, generation interconnection, and economic transmission projects for all Regional Transmission Organizations.

Seasonal ataxia: a case report of a disappearing disease

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Seasonal ataxia: a case report of a disappearing disease. Adebiyi Ayoade ... ological profiles of the disease. ... low serum albumin levels [8] act as a potentiating factor to trigger the ... 65% neutrophils, 25% lymphocytes,eosinophils 5% and.

Persistent current and transmission probability in the Aharonov-Bohm ring with an embedded quantum dot

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Suzhi; Li Ning; Jin Guojun; Ma Yuqiang

2008-01-01

Persistent current and transmission probability in the Aharonov-Bohm (AB) ring with an embedded quantum dot (QD) are studied using the technique of the scattering matrix. For the first time, we find that the persistent current can arise in the absence of magnetic flux in the ring with an embedded QD. The persistent current and the transmission probability are sensitive to the lead-ring coupling and the short-range potential barrier. It is shown that increasing the lead-ring coupling or the short-range potential barrier causes the suppression of the persistent current and the increasing resonance width of the transmission probability. The effect of the potential barrier on the number of the transmission peaks is also investigated. The dependence of the persistent current and the transmission probability on the magnetic flux exhibits a periodic property with period of the flux quantum

Early-season wind erosion influenced by soil-incorporated green manure in the Pacific Northwest

Science.gov (United States)

Management strategies are sought to minimize wind erosion of irrigated agricultural soils along the Columbia River of the Inland Pacific Northwest, particularly during the early season (March-April) when high winds coincide with sowing of vegetable crops. Early-season wind erosion potential from soi...

Potential Sources and Transmission of Salmonella and Antimicrobial Resistance in Kampala, Uganda.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Josephine A Afema

Full Text Available In sub‒Saharan Africa, non‒typhoidal Salmonellae (NTS cause invasive disease particularly in children and HIV infected adults, but the disease epidemiology is poorly understood. Between 2012 and 2013, we investigated NTS sources and transmission in Kampala. We detected Salmonella in 60% of the influent and 60% of the effluent samples from a wastewater treatment plant and 53.3% of the influent and 10% of the effluent samples from waste stabilization ponds that serve the human population; 40.9% of flush‒water samples from ruminant slaughterhouses, 6.6% of the poultry fecal samples from live bird markets and 4% of the fecal samples from swine at slaughter; and in 54.2% of the water samples from a channel that drains storm-water and effluents from the city. We obtained 775 Salmonella isolates, identified 32 serovars, and determined resistance to 15 antimicrobials. We genotyped common serovars using multiple‒locus variable number tandem repeats analysis or pulsed‒field gel electrophoresis. In addition, we analyzed 49 archived NTS isolates from asymptomatic livestock and human clinical cases. Salmonella from ruminant and swine sources were mostly pan‒susceptible (95% while poultry isolates were generally more resistant. Salmonella Kentucky isolated from poultry exhibited extensive drug resistance characterized by resistance to 10 antimicrobials. Interestingly, similar genotypes of S. Kentucky but with less antimicrobial resistance (AMR were found in poultry, human and environmental sources. The observed AMR patterns could be attributed to host or management factors associated with production. Alternatively, S. Kentucky may be prone to acquiring AMR. The factors driving AMR remain poorly understood and should be elucidated. Overall, shared genotypes and AMR phenotypes were found in NTS from human, livestock and environmental sources, suggesting zoonotic and environmental transmissions most likely occur. Information from this study could be

Mid-Season Leaf Glutamine Predicts End-Season Maize Grain Yield and Nitrogen Content in Response to Nitrogen Fertilization under Field Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Travis Goron

2017-06-01

Full Text Available After uptake in cereal crops, nitrogen (N is rapidly assimilated into glutamine (Gln and other amino acids for transport to sinks. Therefore Gln has potential as an improved indicator of soil N availability compared to plant N demand. Gln has primarily been assayed to understand basic plant physiology, rather than to measure plant/soil-N under field conditions. It was hypothesized that leaf Gln at early-to-mid season could report the N application rate and predict end-season grain yield in field-grown maize. A three-year maize field experiment was conducted with N application rates ranging from 30 to 218 kg ha−1. Relative leaf Gln was assayed from leaf disk tissue using a whole-cell biosensor for Gln (GlnLux at the V3-V14 growth stages. SPAD (Soil Plant Analysis Development and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index measurements were also performed. When sampled at V6 or later, GlnLux glutamine output consistently correlated with the N application rate, end-season yield, and grain N content. Yield correlation outperformed GreenSeekerTM NDVI, and was equivalent to SPAD chlorophyll, indicating the potential for yield prediction. Additionally, depleting soil N via overplanting increased GlnLux resolution to the earlier V5 stage. The results of the study are discussed in the context of luxury N consumption, leaf N remobilization, senescence, and grain fill. The potential and challenges of leaf Gln and GlnLux for the study of crop N physiology, and future N management are also discussed.

Seasonal hydroclimatic impacts of Sun Corridor expansion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgescu, M; Mahalov, A; Moustaoui, M

2012-01-01

Conversion of natural to urban land forms imparts influence on local and regional hydroclimate via modification of the surface energy and water balance, and consideration of such effects due to rapidly expanding megapolitan areas is necessary in light of the growing global share of urban inhabitants. Based on a suite of ensemble-based, multi-year simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we quantify seasonally varying hydroclimatic impacts of the most rapidly expanding megapolitan area in the US: Arizona’s Sun Corridor, centered upon the Greater Phoenix metropolitan area. Using a scenario-based urban expansion approach that accounts for the full range of Sun Corridor growth uncertainty through 2050, we show that built environment induced warming for the maximum development scenario is greatest during the summer season (regionally averaged warming over AZ exceeds 1 °C). Warming remains significant during the spring and fall seasons (regionally averaged warming over AZ approaches 0.9 °C during both seasons), and is least during the winter season (regionally averaged warming over AZ of 0.5 °C). Impacts from a minimum expansion scenario are reduced, with regionally averaged warming ranging between 0.1 and 0.3 °C for all seasons except winter, when no warming impacts are diagnosed. Integration of highly reflective cool roofs within the built environment, increasingly recognized as a cost-effective option intended to offset the warming influence of urban complexes, reduces urban-induced warming considerably. However, impacts on the hydrologic cycle are aggravated via enhanced evapotranspiration reduction, leading to a 4% total accumulated precipitation decrease relative to the non-adaptive maximum expansion scenario. Our results highlight potentially unintended consequences of this adaptation approach within rapidly expanding megapolitan areas, and emphasize the need for undeniably sustainable development paths that account for

Seasonal Patterns of Melatonin, Cortisol, and Progesterone Secretion in Female Lambs Raised Beneath a 500-KV Transmission Line

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jack Monroe, Jr.

There is ongoing controversy about the possibility of adverse biological effects from environmental exposures to electric and magnetic fields. These fields are produced by all electrical equipment and appliances including electrical transmission lines. The objective of this environmental science study was to investigate the possible effects of a high voltage transmission line on domestic sheep (Ovis aries L.), a species that can often be found near such lines. The study was primarily designed to determine whether a specific effect of electric and magnetic fields found in laboratory animals also occurs in livestock under natural environmental conditions. The effect is the ability of fields, at levels found in the environment, to significantly depress the normally high nocturnal concentrations of the pineal hormone-melatonin. Ten female Suffolk lambs were penned for 10 months directly beneath a 500-kV transmission line near Estacada, Oregon. Ten other lambs of the same type were penned in a control area away from the transmission line where electric and magnetic fields were at ambient levels. Serum melatonin was analyzed by radioimmunoassay (RIA) from 6618 blood samples collected at 0.5 to 3-hour intervals over eight 48-hour periods. Serum progesterone was analyzed by RIA from blood samples collected twice weekly. Serum cortisol was also assayed by RIA from the blood samples collected during the 48-hour samples. Results showed that lambs in both the control and line groups had the typical pattern of melatonin secretion consisting of low daytime and high nighttime serum concentrations. There were no statistically significant differences between groups in melatonin levels, or in the phase or duration of the nighttime melatonin elevation. Age at puberty and number of reproductive cycles also did not differ between groups. Serum cortisol showed a circadian rhythm with highest concentrations during the day. There were, however, no differences in cortisol concentrations

Assessment of the relative success of sporozoite inoculations in individuals exposed to moderate seasonal transmission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Spiegel André

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The time necessary for malaria parasite to re-appear in the blood following treatment (re-infection time is an indirect method for evaluating the immune defences operating against pre-erythrocytic and early erythrocytic malaria stages. Few longitudinal data are available in populations in whom malaria transmission level had also been measured. Methods One hundred and ten individuals from the village of Ndiop (Senegal, aged between one and 72 years, were cured of malaria by quinine (25 mg/day oral Quinimax™ in three equal daily doses, for seven days. Thereafter, thick blood films were examined to detect the reappearance of Plasmodium falciparum every week, for 11 weeks after treatment. Malaria transmission was simultaneously measured weekly by night collection of biting mosquitoes. Results Malaria transmission was on average 15.3 infective bites per person during the 77 days follow up. The median reappearance time for the whole study population was 46.8 days, whereas individuals would have received an average one infective bite every 5 days. At the end of the follow-up, after 77 days, 103 of the 110 individuals (93.6%; CI 95% [89.0–98.2] had been re-infected with P. falciparum. The median reappearance time ('re-positivation' was longer in subjects with patent parasitaemia at enrolment than in parasitologically-negative individuals (58 days vs. 45.9; p = 0.03 and in adults > 30 years than in younger subjects (58.6 days vs. 42.7; p = 0.0002. In a multivariate Cox PH model controlling for the sickle cell trait, G6PD deficiency and the type of habitat, the presence of parasitaemia at enrolment and age ≥ 30 years were independently predictive of a reduced risk of re-infection (PH = 0.5 [95% CI: 0.3–0.9] and 0.4; [95% CI: 0.2–0.6] respectively. Conclusion Results indicate the existence of a substantial resistance to sporozoites inoculations, but which was ultimately overcome in almost every individual after 2 1/2 months of

Effectively Communicating the Uncertainties Surrounding Ebola Virus Transmission.

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Andy Kilianski

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The current Ebola virus outbreak has highlighted the uncertainties surrounding many aspects of Ebola virus virology, including routes of transmission. The scientific community played a leading role during the outbreak-potentially, the largest of its kind-as many of the questions surrounding ebolaviruses have only been interrogated in the laboratory. Scientists provided an invaluable resource for clinicians, public health officials, policy makers, and the lay public in understanding the progress of Ebola virus disease and the continuing outbreak. Not all of the scientific communication, however, was accurate or effective. There were multiple instances of published articles during the height of the outbreak containing potentially misleading scientific language that spurred media overreaction and potentially jeopardized preparedness and policy decisions at critical points. Here, we use articles declaring the potential for airborne transmission of Ebola virus as a case study in the inaccurate reporting of basic science, and we provide recommendations for improving the communication about unknown aspects of disease during public health crises.

Effectively Communicating the Uncertainties Surrounding Ebola Virus Transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Kilianski, Andy; Evans, Nicholas G

2015-10-01

The current Ebola virus outbreak has highlighted the uncertainties surrounding many aspects of Ebola virus virology, including routes of transmission. The scientific community played a leading role during the outbreak-potentially, the largest of its kind-as many of the questions surrounding ebolaviruses have only been interrogated in the laboratory. Scientists provided an invaluable resource for clinicians, public health officials, policy makers, and the lay public in understanding the progress of Ebola virus disease and the continuing outbreak. Not all of the scientific communication, however, was accurate or effective. There were multiple instances of published articles during the height of the outbreak containing potentially misleading scientific language that spurred media overreaction and potentially jeopardized preparedness and policy decisions at critical points. Here, we use articles declaring the potential for airborne transmission of Ebola virus as a case study in the inaccurate reporting of basic science, and we provide recommendations for improving the communication about unknown aspects of disease during public health crises.

Reptile and amphibian response to season of burn in an upland hardwood forest

Science.gov (United States)

Cathryn H. Greenberg; Tyler Seiboldt; Tara L. Keyser; W. Henry McNab; Patrick Scott; Janis Bush; Christopher E. Moorman

2018-01-01

Growing-season burns are increasingly used in upland hardwood forest for multiple forest management goals. Many species of reptiles and amphibians are ground-dwelling, potentially increasing their vulnerability to prescribed fire, especially during the growing-season when they are most active. We used drift fences with pitfall traps to experimentally assess how...

An Optimal Cost Effectiveness Study on Zimbabwe Cholera Seasonal Data from 2008–2011

Science.gov (United States)

Sardar, Tridip; Mukhopadhyay, Soumalya; Bhowmick, Amiya Ranjan; Chattopadhyay, Joydev

2013-01-01

Incidence of cholera outbreak is a serious issue in underdeveloped and developing countries. In Zimbabwe, after the massive outbreak in 2008–09, cholera cases and deaths are reported every year from some provinces. Substantial number of reported cholera cases in some provinces during and after the epidemic in 2008–09 indicates a plausible presence of seasonality in cholera incidence in those regions. We formulate a compartmental mathematical model with periodic slow-fast transmission rate to study such recurrent occurrences and fitted the model to cumulative cholera cases and deaths for different provinces of Zimbabwe from the beginning of cholera outbreak in 2008–09 to June 2011. Daily and weekly reported cholera incidence data were collected from Zimbabwe epidemiological bulletin, Zimbabwe Daily cholera updates and Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Zimbabwe (OCHA, Zimbabwe). For each province, the basic reproduction number () in periodic environment is estimated. To the best of our knowledge, this is probably a pioneering attempt to estimate in periodic environment using real-life data set of cholera epidemic for Zimbabwe. Our estimates of agree with the previous estimate for some provinces but differ significantly for Bulawayo, Mashonaland West, Manicaland, Matabeleland South and Matabeleland North. Seasonal trend in cholera incidence is observed in Harare, Mashonaland West, Mashonaland East, Manicaland and Matabeleland South. Our result suggests that, slow transmission is a dominating factor for cholera transmission in most of these provinces. Our model projects cholera cases and cholera deaths during the end of the epidemic in 2008–09 to January 1, 2012. We also determine an optimal cost-effective control strategy among the four government undertaken interventions namely promoting hand-hygiene & clean water distribution, vaccination, treatment and sanitation for each province. PMID:24312540

Indoor social networks in a South African township: potential contribution of location to tuberculosis transmission.

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Robin Wood

Full Text Available We hypothesized that in South Africa, with a generalized tuberculosis (TB epidemic, TB infection is predominantly acquired indoors and transmission potential is determined by the number and duration of social contacts made in locations that are conducive to TB transmission. We therefore quantified time spent and contacts met in indoor locations and public transport by residents of a South African township with a very high TB burden.A diary-based community social mixing survey was performed in 2010. Randomly selected participants (n = 571 prospectively recorded numbers of contacts and time spent in specified locations over 24-hour periods. To better characterize age-related social networks, participants were stratified into ten 5-year age strata and locations were classified into 11 types.Five location types (own-household, other-households, transport, crèche/school, and work contributed 97.2% of total indoor time and 80.4% of total indoor contacts. Median time spent indoors was 19.1 hours/day (IQR:14.3-22.7, which was consistent across age strata. Median daily contacts increased from 16 (IQR:9-40 in 0-4 year-olds to 40 (IQR:18-60 in 15-19 year-olds and declined to 18 (IQR:10-41 in ≥45 year-olds. Mean daily own-household contacts was 8.8 (95%CI:8.2-9.4, which decreased with increasing age. Mean crèche/school contacts increased from 6.2/day (95%CI:2.7-9.7 in 0-4 year-olds to 28.1/day (95%CI:8.1-48.1 in 15-19 year-olds. Mean transport contacts increased from 4.9/day (95%CI:1.6-8.2 in 0-4 year-olds to 25.5/day (95%CI:12.1-38.9 in 25-29 year-olds.A limited number of location types contributed the majority of indoor social contacts in this community. Increasing numbers of social contacts occurred throughout childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood, predominantly in school and public transport. This rapid increase in non-home socialization parallels the increasing TB infection rates during childhood and young adulthood reported in this

Reviving the Ganges Water Machine: potential

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Amarasinghe, Upali Ananda; Muthuwatta, Lal; Surinaidu, Lagudu; Anand, Sumit; Jain, Sharad Kumar

2016-03-01

The Ganges River basin faces severe water challenges related to a mismatch between supply and demand. Although the basin has abundant surface water and groundwater resources, the seasonal monsoon causes a mismatch between supply and demand as well as flooding. Water availability and flood potential is high during the 3-4 months (June-September) of the monsoon season. Yet, the highest demands occur during the 8-9 months (October-May) of the non-monsoon period. Addressing this mismatch, which is likely to increase with increasing demand, requires substantial additional storage for both flood reduction and improvements in water supply. Due to hydrogeological, environmental, and social constraints, expansion of surface storage in the Ganges River basin is problematic. A range of interventions that focus more on the use of subsurface storage (SSS), and on the acceleration of surface-subsurface water exchange, has long been known as the Ganges Water Machine (GWM). The approach of the GWM for providing such SSS is through additional pumping and depleting of the groundwater resources prior to the onset of the monsoon season and recharging the SSS through monsoon surface runoff. An important condition for creating such SSS is the degree of unmet water demand. The paper shows that the potential unmet water demand ranging from 59 to 124 Bm3 year-1 exists under two different irrigation water use scenarios: (i) to increase irrigation in the Rabi (November-March) and hot weather (April-May) seasons in India, and the Aman (July-November) and Boro (December-May) seasons in Bangladesh, to the entire irrigable area, and (ii) to provide irrigation to Rabi and the hot weather season in India and the Aman and Boro seasons in Bangladesh to the entire cropped area. However, the potential for realizing the unmet irrigation demand is high only in 7 sub-basins in the northern and eastern parts, is moderate to low in 11 sub-basins in the middle, and has little or no potential in 4 sub

The potential impact of integrated malaria transmission control on entomologic inoculation rate in highly endemic areas.

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Killeen, G F; McKenzie, F E; Foy, B D; Schieffelin, C; Billingsley, P F; Beier, J C

2000-05-01

We have used a relatively simple but accurate model for predicting the impact of integrated transmission control on the malaria entomologic inoculation rate (EIR) at four endemic sites from across sub-Saharan Africa and the southwest Pacific. The simulated campaign incorporated modestly effective vaccine coverage, bed net use, and larval control. The results indicate that such campaigns would reduce EIRs at all four sites by 30- to 50-fold. Even without the vaccine, 15- to 25-fold reductions of EIR were predicted, implying that integrated control with a few modestly effective tools can meaningfully reduce malaria transmission in a range of endemic settings. The model accurately predicts the effects of bed nets and indoor spraying and demonstrates that they are the most effective tools available for reducing EIR. However, the impact of domestic adult vector control is amplified by measures for reducing the rate of emergence of vectors or the level of infectiousness of the human reservoir. We conclude that available tools, including currently neglected methods for larval control, can reduce malaria transmission intensity enough to alleviate mortality. Integrated control programs should be implemented to the fullest extent possible, even in areas of intense transmission, using simple models as decision-making tools. However, we also conclude that to eliminate malaria in many areas of intense transmission is beyond the scope of methods which developing nations can currently afford. New, cost-effective, practical tools are needed if malaria is ever to be eliminated from highly endemic areas.

[Perinatal HIV transmission prophylaxis in the Liege region].

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Jacquet, Y; Hoyoux, C; Dresse, M F

1998-08-01

In Liège, since February 1994, Protocole ACTG 076 has been followed for prevention of perinatal transmission of VIH. The pregnant women are treated by AZT during pregnancy and delivery. The newborn is also treated during 6 weeks. Following this treatment strategy, vertical transmission rate of VIH has dropped from 25.6% to 8.7%. The PCR is particulary promising for the early detection of infection in newborn, but definitive conclusion about infective status of the newborn can't be done during the first week of life. The potential role of intrapartum transmission is now under evaluation in the hope to establish the safest mode of delivery.

Seasonal Cycles of Oceanic Transports in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic

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Gary, Stefan F.; Cunningham, Stuart A.; Johnson, Clare; Houpert, Loïc.; Holliday, N. Penny; Behrens, Erik; Biastoch, Arne; Böning, Claus W.

2018-02-01

The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play a role in sea surface temperature predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Therefore, AMOC seasonal cycles are a potential baseline for interpreting predictions. Here we present estimates for the seasonal cycle of transports of volume, temperature, and freshwater associated with the upper limb of the AMOC in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic on the Extended Ellett Line hydrographic section between Scotland and Iceland. Due to weather, ship-based observations are primarily in summer. Recent glider observations during other seasons present an opportunity to investigate the seasonal variability in the upper layer of the AMOC. First, we document a new method to quality control and merge ship, float, and glider hydrographic observations. This method accounts for the different spatial sampling rates of the three platforms. The merged observations are used to compute seasonal cycles of volume, temperature, and freshwater transports in the Rockall Trough. These estimates are similar to the seasonal cycles in two eddy-resolving ocean models. Volume transport appears to be the primary factor modulating other Rockall Trough transports. Finally, we show that the weakest transports occur in summer, consistent with seasonal changes in the regional-scale wind stress curl. Although the seasonal cycle is weak compared to other variability in this region, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in the Rockall Trough, roughly 0.5-1 Sv about a mean of 3.4 Sv, may account for up to 7-14% of the heat flux between Scotland and Greenland.

Modeling the Geographic Consequence and Pattern of Dengue Fever Transmission in Thailand.

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Bekoe, Collins; Pansombut, Tatdow; Riyapan, Pakwan; Kakchapati, Sampurna; Phon-On, Aniruth

2017-05-04

Dengue fever is one of the infectious diseases that is still a public health problem in Thailand. This study considers in detail, the geographic consequence, seasonal and pattern of dengue fever transmission among the 76 provinces of Thailand from 2003 to 2015. A cross-sectional study. The data for the study was from the Department of Disease Control under the Bureau of Epidemiology, Thailand. The quarterly effects and location on the transmission of dengue was modeled using an alternative additive log-linear model. The model fitted well as illustrated by the residual plots and the  Again, the model showed that dengue fever is high in the second quarter of every year from May to August. There was an evidence of an increase in the trend of dengue annually from 2003 to 2015. There was a difference in the distribution of dengue fever within and between provinces. The areas of high risks were the central and southern regions of Thailand. The log-linear model provided a simple medium of modeling dengue fever transmission. The results are very important in the geographic distribution of dengue fever patterns.

Reducing Wind Curtailment through Transmission Expansion in a Wind Vision Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jorgensen, Jennie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Greg [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-01-01

The Department of Energy's 2015 Wind Vision study, which analyzed an ambitious scenario where wind power served 35% of U.S. electricity consumption in 2050, showed the potential for wind energy to provide substantial health, environmental, and economic benefits. Using a commercial unit commitment and economic dispatch model, we build on this research by assessing the hourly operational feasibility of a similar high wind future in the Western United States. Our detailed simulations found no hours of unmet load or reserve violations with more than 35% potential wind (and 12% potential solar) available on the system, which highlights the technical possibility of integrating large amounts of wind energy. However, absent significant changes to the western grid, we find that substantial wind curtailment could be an issue, as it could degrade the potential for wind power to reduce fuel costs and lowering the emission benefits. To assess the value of transmission to mitigate wind curtailment, we model a suite of transmission expansion scenarios. We find that wind curtailment could be reduced by approximately half under a scenario where new transmission is based only on proposed projects. This avoided wind curtailment could lower annual production costs and reduce carbon dioxide emissions substantially. Greater transmission expansion was found to yield further benefits, although the marginal benefits of these new lines were found to decline. Overall, these results suggest that power systems operation can be realized with more than 35% wind penetration, but that transmission expansion is likely to play a vital role.

Seasonality, mobility, and livability.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-31

Signature project 4a, Seasonality, Mobility, and Livability investigated the effects of weather, season, built environment, community amenities, attitudes, and demographics on mobility and quality of life (QOL). A four season panel survey exami...

Small passenger car transmission test; Chevrolet LUV transmission

Science.gov (United States)

Bujold, M. P.

1980-01-01

A 1978 Chevrolet LUV manual transmission tested per the applicable portions of a passenger car automatic transmission test code (SAE J65lb) which required drive performance, coast performance, and no load test conditions. Under these test conditions, the transmission attained maximum efficiencies in the upper ninety percent range for both drive performance tests and coast performance tests. The major results of this test (torque, speed, and efficiency curves) are presented. Graphs map the complete performance characteristics for the Chevrolet LUV transmission.

Transmission issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bradford, J.; Wilson, L.; Thon, S.; Millar, N.

2005-01-01

This session on transmission issues focused on the role that transmission plays in electricity markets and the importance of getting the market structure right in terms of generation divestiture with buy back contracts, demand side responsive programs, transmission upgrades and long term contracts. The difficulties of distinguishing between market power and scarcity were examined along with some of the complications that ensue if transmission experiences congestion, as exemplified by the August 2003 blackout in eastern North America. The presentations described the best ways to handle transmission issues, and debated whether transmission should be deregulated or follow market forces. Issues of interconnections and reliability of connections were also debated along with the attempt to integrate renewables into the grid. Some presentations identified what new transmission must be built and what must be done to ensure that transmission gets built. The challenges and business opportunities for transmission in Alberta were discussed with reference to plans to invest in new infrastructure, where it is going outside of the province and how it works with other jurisdictions. Manitoba's Conawapa Hydro Project and its 2000 MW tie line to Ontario was also discussed. Some examples of non-optimal use of interconnections in Europe were also discussed in an effort to learn from these mistakes and avoid them in Canada. tabs., figs

A single base-pair change in 2009 H1N1 hemagglutinin increases human receptor affinity and leads to efficient airborne viral transmission in ferrets.

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Akila Jayaraman

2011-03-01

Full Text Available The 2009 H1N1 influenza A virus continues to circulate among the human population as the predominant H1N1 subtype. Epidemiological studies and airborne transmission studies using the ferret model have shown that the transmission efficiency of 2009 H1N1 viruses is lower than that of previous seasonal strains and the 1918 pandemic H1N1 strain. We recently correlated this reduced transmission efficiency to the lower binding affinity of the 2009 H1N1 hemagglutinin (HA to α2→6 sialylated glycan receptors (human receptors. Here we report that a single point mutation (Ile219→Lys; a base pair change in the glycan receptor-binding site (RBS of a representative 2009 H1N1 influenza A virus, A/California/04/09 or CA04/09, quantitatively increases its human receptor-binding affinity. The increased human receptor-affinity is in the same range as that of the HA from highly transmissible seasonal and 1918 pandemic H1N1 viruses. Moreover, a 2009 H1N1 virus carrying this mutation in the RBS (generated using reverse genetics transmits efficiently in ferrets by respiratory droplets thereby reestablishing our previously observed correlation between human receptor-binding affinity and transmission efficiency. These findings are significant in the context of monitoring the evolution of the currently circulating 2009 H1N1 viruses.

Experimental transmission of atypical scrapie to sheep

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Spiropoulos John

2007-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Active surveillance for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in small ruminants has been an EU regulatory requirement since 2002. A number of European countries have subsequently reported cases of atypical scrapie, similar to previously published cases from Norway, which have pathological and molecular features distinct from classical scrapie. Most cases have occurred singly in flocks, associated with genotypes considered to be more resistant to classical disease. Experimental transmissibility of such isolates has been reported in certain ovinised transgenic mice, but has not previously been reported in the natural host. Information on the transmissibility of this agent is vital to ensuring that disease control measures are effective and proportionate. Results This report presents the successful experimental transmission, in 378 days, of atypical scrapie to a recipient sheep of homologous genotype with preservation of the pathological and molecular characteristics of the donor. This isolate also transmitted to ovinised transgenic mice (Tg338 with a murine phenotype indistinguishable from that of Nor 98. Conclusion This result strengthens the opinion that these cases result from a distinct strain of scrapie agent, which is potentially transmissible in the natural host under field conditions.

Decreased prefrontal cortical dopamine transmission in alcoholism.

Science.gov (United States)

Narendran, Rajesh; Mason, Neale Scott; Paris, Jennifer; Himes, Michael L; Douaihy, Antoine B; Frankle, W Gordon

2014-08-01

Basic studies have demonstrated that optimal levels of prefrontal cortical dopamine are critical to various executive functions such as working memory, attention, inhibitory control, and risk/reward decisions, all of which are impaired in addictive disorders such as alcoholism. Based on this and imaging studies of alcoholism that have demonstrated less dopamine in the striatum, the authors hypothesized decreased dopamine transmission in the prefrontal cortex in persons with alcohol dependence. To test this hypothesis, amphetamine and [11C]FLB 457 positron emission tomography were used to measure cortical dopamine transmission in 21 recently abstinent persons with alcohol dependence and 21 matched healthy comparison subjects. [11C]FLB 457 binding potential, specific compared to nondisplaceable uptake (BPND), was measured in subjects with kinetic analysis using the arterial input function both before and after 0.5 mg kg-1 of d-amphetamine. Amphetamine-induced displacement of [11C]FLB 457 binding potential (ΔBPND) was significantly smaller in the cortical regions in the alcohol-dependent group compared with the healthy comparison group. Cortical regions that demonstrated lower dopamine transmission in the alcohol-dependent group included the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, medial prefrontal cortex, orbital frontal cortex, temporal cortex, and medial temporal lobe. The results of this study, for the first time, unambiguously demonstrate decreased dopamine transmission in the cortex in alcoholism. Further research is necessary to understand the clinical relevance of decreased cortical dopamine as to whether it is related to impaired executive function, relapse, and outcome in alcoholism.

Amazon Forests Maintain Consistent Canopy Structure and Greenness During the Dry Season

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Morton, Douglas C.; Nagol, Jyoteshwar; Carabajal, Claudia C.; Rosette, Jacqueline; Palace, Michael; Cook, Bruce D.; Vermote, Eric F.; Harding, David J.; North, Peter R. J.

2014-01-01

The seasonality of sunlight and rainfall regulates net primary production in tropical forests. Previous studies have suggested that light is more limiting than water for tropical forest productivity, consistent with greening of Amazon forests during the dry season in satellite data.We evaluated four potential mechanisms for the seasonal green-up phenomenon, including increases in leaf area or leaf reflectance, using a sophisticated radiative transfer model and independent satellite observations from lidar and optical sensors. Here we show that the apparent green up of Amazon forests in optical remote sensing data resulted from seasonal changes in near-infrared reflectance, an artefact of variations in sun-sensor geometry. Correcting this bidirectional reflectance effect eliminated seasonal changes in surface reflectance, consistent with independent lidar observations and model simulations with unchanging canopy properties. The stability of Amazon forest structure and reflectance over seasonal timescales challenges the paradigm of light-limited net primary production in Amazon forests and enhanced forest growth during drought conditions. Correcting optical remote sensing data for artefacts of sun-sensor geometry is essential to isolate the response of global vegetation to seasonal and interannual climate variability.

Seasonal Allergies (Hay Fever)

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... Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Seasonal Allergies (Hay Fever) KidsHealth / For Parents / Seasonal Allergies (Hay ... español Alergia estacional (fiebre del heno) About Seasonal Allergies "Achoo!" It's your son's third sneezing fit of ...

Modelling Seasonal Brucellosis Epidemics in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, 2010–2014

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Pengwei Lou

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Brucellosis is one of the severe public health problems; the cumulative number of new human brucellosis cases reached 211515 from 2010 to 2014 in China. Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture is situated in the southeast of Xinjiang, where brucellosis infection occurs every year. Based on the reported data of newly acute human brucellosis cases for each season in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, we proposed a susceptible, exposed, infected, and vaccinated (SEIV model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal brucellosis transmission dynamics among sheep/cattle and from sheep/cattle to humans. Compared with the criteria of MAPE and RMSPE, the model simulations agree to the data on newly acute human brucellosis. We predict that the number of newly acute human brucellosis is increasing and will peak 15325 [95% CI: 11920–18242] around the summer of 2023. We also estimate the basic reproduction number R0=2.5524 [95% CI: 2.5129–2.6225] and perform some sensitivity analysis of the newly acute human brucellosis cases and the basic reproduction number R0 in terms of model parameters. Our study demonstrates that reducing the birth number of sheep/cattle, raising the slaughter rate of infected sheep/cattle, increasing the vaccination rate of susceptible sheep/cattle, and decreasing the loss rate of vaccination are effective strategies to control brucellosis epidemic.

Modelling Seasonal Brucellosis Epidemics in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, 2010–2014

Science.gov (United States)

Lou, Pengwei; Wang, Lei; Zhang, Xueliang; Xu, Jiabo

2016-01-01

Brucellosis is one of the severe public health problems; the cumulative number of new human brucellosis cases reached 211515 from 2010 to 2014 in China. Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture is situated in the southeast of Xinjiang, where brucellosis infection occurs every year. Based on the reported data of newly acute human brucellosis cases for each season in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, we proposed a susceptible, exposed, infected, and vaccinated (SEIV) model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal brucellosis transmission dynamics among sheep/cattle and from sheep/cattle to humans. Compared with the criteria of MAPE and RMSPE, the model simulations agree to the data on newly acute human brucellosis. We predict that the number of newly acute human brucellosis is increasing and will peak 15325 [95% CI: 11920–18242] around the summer of 2023. We also estimate the basic reproduction number R 0 = 2.5524 [95% CI: 2.5129–2.6225] and perform some sensitivity analysis of the newly acute human brucellosis cases and the basic reproduction number R 0 in terms of model parameters. Our study demonstrates that reducing the birth number of sheep/cattle, raising the slaughter rate of infected sheep/cattle, increasing the vaccination rate of susceptible sheep/cattle, and decreasing the loss rate of vaccination are effective strategies to control brucellosis epidemic. PMID:27872852

Seasonal reproduction of vampire bats and its relation to seasonality of bovine rabies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lord, R D

1992-04-01

Studies of pregnancy and lactation in vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) in northern Argentina over a 4 yr period showed an inverse relationship between prevalence of pregnancy and lactation, the consequence of birth and onset of lactation, which was correlated with the wet season. The seasonal influx of young susceptibles into the vampire population in the wet season coincided with the well known increase in vampire transmitted rabies in that season.

Seasonal variations in monoterpene profiles and ecophysiological traits in Mediterranean pine species of group halepensis

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Michelozzi M

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Foliar and cortical terpene profile, and needle gas exchange and water potential of P. halepensis, P. brutia and P. eldarica were compared over three consecutive seasons (1996-1998 in an experimental plantation nearby Firenze (Italy. Terpene percentages in mature tissue (cortex and needle did not change in response to water stress during summer period and remained stable through seasons and years. Terpene profiles were not affected by seasonal drought, and are thus valuable to characterize Mediterranean pine species of the group “halepensis”. There was a threshold-type response of maximum daily gas exchange to decreasing predawn water potential in all pines. Net photosynthesis and needle conductance were linearly related, regardless of the species.

Latitudinal range influences the seasonal variation in the foraging behavior of marine top predators.

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Stella Villegas-Amtmann

Full Text Available Non-migratory resident species should be capable of modifying their foraging behavior to accommodate changes in prey abundance and availability associated with a changing environment. Populations that are better adapted to change will have higher foraging success and greater potential for survival in the face of climate change. We studied two species of resident central place foragers from temperate and equatorial regions with differing population trends and prey availability associated to season, the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus (CSL whose population is increasing and the endangered Galapagos sea lion (Zalophus wollebaeki (GSL whose population is declining. To determine their response to environmental change, we studied and compared their diving behavior using time-depth recorders and satellite location tags and their diet by measuring C and N isotope ratios during a warm and a cold season. Based on latitudinal differences in oceanographic productivity, we hypothesized that the seasonal variation in foraging behavior would differ for these two species. CSL exhibited greater seasonal variability in their foraging behavior as seen in changes to their diving behavior, foraging areas and diet between seasons. Conversely, GSL did not change their diving behavior between seasons, presenting three foraging strategies (shallow, deep and bottom divers during both. GSL exhibited greater dive and foraging effort than CSL. We suggest that during the warm and less productive season a greater range of foraging behaviors in CSL was associated with greater competition for prey, which relaxed during the cold season when resource availability was greater. GSL foraging specialization suggests that resources are limited throughout the year due to lower primary production and lower seasonal variation in productivity compared to CSL. These latitudinal differences influence their foraging success, pup survival and population growth reflected in

Seasonal Patterns of Melatonin, Cortisol, and Progesterone Secretion in Female Lambs Raised Beneath a 500-kV Transmission Line.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Jack M.

1992-06-01

Although several kinds of biological effects of electric and magnetic fields have been reported from laboratory studies, few have been independently replicated. When this study was being planned, the suppression of nighttime melatonin in rodents was thought to represent one of the strongest known effects of these fields. The effect had been replicated by a single laboratory for 60-Hz electric fields, and by multiple laboratories for d-c magnetic fields. The primary objective of this study was to determine whether the effect of electric and magnetic fields on melatonin would also occur in sheep exposed to a high voltage transmission line. The specific hypothesis tested by this experiment was as follows: The electrical environment produced by a 60-Hz, 500-kV transmission line causes a depression in nocturnal melatonin in chronically exposed female lambs. This may mimic effects of pinealectomy or constant long-day photoperiods, thus delaying the onset of reproductive cycles. Results of the study do not provide evidence to support the hypothesis. Melatonin concentrations in the sheep exposed to the transmission line showed the normal pattern of low daytime and high nighttime serum levels. As compared to the control group, there were no statistically significant group differences in the mean amplitude, phase, or duration of the nighttime melatonin elevation.

Molecular Modeling of Prion Transmission to Humans

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Etienne Levavasseur

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Using different prion strains, such as the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease agent and the atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy agents, and using transgenic mice expressing human or bovine prion protein, we assessed the reliability of protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA to model interspecies and genetic barriers to prion transmission. We compared our PMCA results with in vivo transmission data characterized by attack rates, i.e., the percentage of inoculated mice that developed the disease. Using 19 seed/substrate combinations, we observed that a significant PMCA amplification was only obtained when the mouse line used as substrate is susceptible to the corresponding strain. Our results suggest that PMCA provides a useful tool to study genetic barriers to transmission and to study the zoonotic potential of emerging prion strains.

Bat flies (Diptera: Nycteribiidae and Streblidae) infesting cave-dwelling bats in Gabon: diversity, dynamics and potential role in Polychromophilus melanipherus transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Obame-Nkoghe, Judicaël; Rahola, Nil; Bourgarel, Mathieu; Yangari, Patrick; Prugnolle, Franck; Maganga, Gael Darren; Leroy, Eric-Maurice; Fontenille, Didier; Ayala, Diego; Paupy, Christophe

2016-06-10

Evidence of haemosporidian infections in bats and bat flies has motivated a growing interest in characterizing their transmission cycles. In Gabon (Central Africa), many caves house massive colonies of bats that are known hosts of Polychromophilus Dionisi parasites, presumably transmitted by blood-sucking bat flies. However, the role of bat flies in bat malaria transmission remains under-documented. An entomological survey was carried out in four caves in Gabon to investigate bat fly diversity, infestation rates and host preferences and to determine their role in Polychromophilus parasite transmission. Bat flies were sampled for 2-4 consecutive nights each month from February to April 2011 (Faucon and Zadie caves) and from May 2012 to April 2013 (Kessipoughou and Djibilong caves). Bat flies isolated from the fur of each captured bat were morphologically identified and screened for infection by haemosporidian parasites using primers targeting the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. Among the 1,154 bats captured and identified as Miniopterus inflatus Thomas (n = 354), Hipposideros caffer Sundevall complex (n = 285), Hipposideros gigas Wagner (n = 317), Rousettus aegyptiacus Geoffroy (n = 157, and Coleura afra Peters (n = 41), 439 (38.0 %) were infested by bat flies. The 1,063 bat flies recovered from bats belonged to five taxa: Nycteribia schmidlii scotti Falcoz, Eucampsipoda africana Theodor, Penicillidia fulvida Bigot, Brachytarsina allaudi Falcoz and Raymondia huberi Frauenfeld group. The mean infestation rate varied significantly according to the bat species (ANOVA, F (4,75) = 13.15, P bat fly species and host bat species was observed. Polychromophilus melanipherus Dionisi was mainly detected in N. s. scotti and P. fulvida and less frequently in E. africana, R. huberi group and B. allaudi bat flies. These results suggest that N. s. scotti and P. fulvida could potentially be involved in P. melanipherus transmission among cave-dwelling bats

Flux Cloning in Josephson Transmission Lines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gulevich, D.R.; Kusmartsev, F.V.

2006-01-01

We describe a novel effect related to the controlled birth of a single Josephson vortex. In this phenomenon, the vortex is created in a Josephson transmission line at a T-shaped junction. The 'baby' vortex arises at the moment when a 'mother' vortex propagating in the adjacent transmission line passes the T-shaped junction. In order to give birth to a new vortex, the mother vortex must have enough kinetic energy. Its motion can also be supported by an externally applied driving current. We determine the critical velocity and the critical driving current for the creation of the baby vortices and briefly discuss the potential applications of the found effect

Review of economic evaluations of mask and respirator use for protection against respiratory infection transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Mukerji, Shohini; MacIntyre, C Raina; Newall, Anthony T

2015-10-13

There has been increasing debate surrounding mask and respirator interventions to control respiratory infection transmission in both healthcare and community settings. As decision makers are considering the recommendations they should evaluate how to provide the most efficient protection strategies with minimum costs. The aim of this review is to identify and evaluate the existing economic evaluation literature in this area and to offer advice on how future evaluations on this topic should be conducted. We searched the Scopus database for all literature on economic evaluation of mask or respirator use to control respiratory infection transmission. Reference lists from the identified studies were also manually searched. Seven studies met our inclusion criteria from the initial 806 studies identified by the search strategy and our manual search. Five studies considered interventions for seasonal and/or pandemic influenza, with one also considering SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome). The other two studies focussed on tuberculosis transmission control interventions. The settings and methodologies of the studies varied greatly. No low-middle income settings were identified. Only one of the reviewed studies cited clinical evidence to inform their mask/respirator intervention effectiveness parameters. Mask and respirator interventions were generally reported by the study authors to be cost saving or cost-effective when compared to no intervention or other control measures, however the evaluations had important limitations. Given the large cost differential between masks and respirators, there is a need for more comprehensive economic evaluations to compare the relative costs and benefits of these interventions in situations and settings where alternative options are potentially applicable. There are at present insufficient well conducted cost-effectiveness studies to inform decision-makers on the value for money of alternative mask/respirator options.

Quasioptical devices based on extraordinary transmission at THz

Science.gov (United States)

Beruete, Miguel

2016-04-01

In this work I will present our latest advances in components developed from extraordinary transmission concepts operating at terahertz (THz) frequencies. First, a structure exhibiting two different extraordinary transmission resonances depending on the polarization of the incident wave will be shown. The peaks of transmission appear at approximately 2 and 2.5 THz for vertical and horizontal polarization, respectively, with a transmittance above 60% in both cases. Later on, a meandering line structure able to tune the extraordinary transmission resonance will be discussed. The operation frequency in this case is between 9 and 17 THz. A self-complementary polarizer will be then presented, with a high polarization purity. The fundamentals of this device based on the Babinet's principle will be discussed in depth. Finally, all these structures will be combined together to produce a dual-band Quarter Wave Plate able to convert a linear polarization at the input in a circular polarization at the output at two different bands, 1 and 2.2. THz. Some final words regarding the potential of extraordinary transmission for sensing applications will close the contribution.

Influence of season and type of restaurants on sashimi microbiota.

Science.gov (United States)

Miguéis, S; Moura, A T; Saraiva, C; Esteves, A

2016-10-01

In recent years, an increase in the consumption of Japanese food in European countries has been verified, including in Portugal. These specialities made with raw fish, typical Japanese meals, have been prepared in typical and on non-typical restaurants, and represent a challenge to risk analysis on HACCP plans. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of the type of restaurant, season and type of fish used on sashimi microbiota. Sashimi samples (n = 114) were directly collected from 23 sushi restaurants and were classified as Winter and Summer Samples. They were also categorized according to the type of restaurant where they were obtained: as typical or non-typical. The samples were processed using international standards procedures. A middling seasonality influence was observed in microbiota using mesophilic aerobic bacteria, psychrotrophic microorganisms, Lactic acid bacteria, Pseudomonas spp., H 2 S positive bacteria, mould and Bacillus cereus counts parameters. During the Summer Season, samples classified as unacceptable or potentially Hazardous were observed. Non-typical restaurants had the most cases of Unacceptable/potentially hazardous samples 83.33%. These unacceptable results were obtained as a result of high values of pathogenic bacteria like Listeria monocytogenes and Staphylococcus aureus No significant differences were observed on microbiota counts from different fish species. The need to implement more accurate food safety systems was quite evident, especially in the warmer season, as well as in restaurants where other kinds of food, apart from Japanese meals, was prepared. © Crown copyright 2016.

Seasonality affects dietary diversity of school-age children in northern Ghana.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdul-Razak Abizari

Full Text Available Dietary diversity score (DDS is relatively easy to measure and is shown to be a very useful indicator of the probability of adequate micronutrient intake. Dietary diversity, however, is usually assessed during a single period and little is known about the effect of seasonality on it. This study investigates whether dietary diversity is influenced by seasonality.Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in two different seasons-dry season (October 2010 and rainy season (May 2011 among the same school-age children (SAC in two rural schools in northern Ghana. The study population consisted of 228 school-age children. A qualitative 24-hour dietary recall was conducted in both seasons. Based on 13 food groups, a score of 1 was given if a child consumed a food item belonging to a particular food group, else 0. Individual scores were aggregated into DDS for each child. Differences in mean DDS between seasons were compared using linear mixed model analysis.The dietary pattern of the SAC was commonly plant foods with poor consumption of animal source foods. The mean DDS was significantly higher (P < 0.001 in the rainy season (6.95 ± 0.55 compared to the dry season (6.44 ± 0.55 after adjusting for potential confounders such as age, sex, occupation (household head and mother and education of household head. The difference in mean DDS between dry and rainy seasons was mainly due to the difference in the consumption of Vitamin A-rich fruits and vegetables between the seasons. While vitamin A-rich fruits (64.0% vs. 0.9%; P < 0.0001 and vitamin A rich dark green leafy vegetables (52.6% vs. 23.3%, P < .0001 were consumed more during the rainy season than the dry season, more children consumed vitamin A-rich deep yellow, orange and red vegetables during the dry season than during the rainy season (73.7% vs. 36.4%, P <0.001.Seasonality has an effect on DDS and may affect the quality of dietary intake of SAC; in such a context, it would be useful to measure DDS

Little evidence of seasonal variation of natural infection by Leishmania infantum in dogs in Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Bellon, H; Solano-Gallego, L; Rodríguez-Cortés, A; Ferrer, L; Gallego, M; Alberola, J; Ramis, A

2008-08-01

Leishmania infantum, the etiological agent of canine leishmaniosis in the Mediterranean region, is vectored by Phlebotomus spp sandflies, which are active during the warmer months of the year. In order to determine whether seasonality in transmission induces seasonal changes in the prevalence of infection by L. infantum and of parasite-specific immune response, two groups of dogs, one in February (n=37) and another in October (n=42), were studied. Clinical signs compatible with leishmaniosis, as well as presence of microscopic skin lesions in the muzzle were recorded for all dogs. Assays were also performed for detection of L. infantum parasites in muzzle skin samples (PCR, immunohistochemistry and culture), specific serum antibodies (ELISA), and specific lymphocyte proliferation and interferon-gamma production. Although prevalence of non-specific clinical signs increased significantly after the sandfly season, this was not the case for Leishmania-specific markers: positivity by PCR (24% vs. 21%) or immunohistochemistry (3% vs. 2%) of muzzle skin samples, as well as lymphocyte proliferation (59% vs. 50%) or interferon-gamma production (21% vs. 27%) were similar in February and in October. Only prevalence of positive specific antibody titers increased noticeably in October (8% vs. 20%), although this was not statistically significant. Overall, the sandfly season did not have a marked impact on the prevalence L. infantum infection or parasite-specific immune responses analyzed in this study.

Seasonally timed treatment programs for Ascaris lumbricoides to increase impact-An investigation using mathematical models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emma L Davis

2018-01-01

Full Text Available There is clear empirical evidence that environmental conditions can influence Ascaris spp. free-living stage development and host reinfection, but the impact of these differences on human infections, and interventions to control them, is variable. A new model framework reflecting four key stages of the A. lumbricoides life cycle, incorporating the effects of rainfall and temperature, is used to describe the level of infection in the human population alongside the environmental egg dynamics. Using data from South Korea and Nigeria, we conclude that settings with extreme fluctuations in rainfall or temperature could exhibit strong seasonal transmission patterns that may be partially masked by the longevity of A. lumbricoides infections in hosts; we go on to demonstrate how seasonally timed mass drug administration (MDA could impact the outcomes of control strategies. For the South Korean setting the results predict a comparative decrease of 74.5% in mean worm days (the number of days the average individual spend infected with worms across a 12 month period between the best and worst MDA timings after four years of annual treatment. The model found no significant seasonal effect on MDA in the Nigerian setting due to a narrower annual temperature range and no rainfall dependence. Our results suggest that seasonal variation in egg survival and maturation could be exploited to maximise the impact of MDA in certain settings.

Almost there: transmission routes of bacterial symbionts between trophic levels.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elad Chiel

Full Text Available Many intracellular microbial symbionts of arthropods are strictly vertically transmitted and manipulate their host's reproduction in ways that enhance their own transmission. Rare horizontal transmission events are nonetheless necessary for symbiont spread to novel host lineages. Horizontal transmission has been mostly inferred from phylogenetic studies but the mechanisms of spread are still largely a mystery. Here, we investigated transmission of two distantly related bacterial symbionts--Rickettsia and Hamiltonella--from their host, the sweet potato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, to three species of whitefly parasitoids: Eretmocerus emiratus, Eretmocerus eremicus and Encarsia pergandiella. We also examined the potential for vertical transmission of these whitefly symbionts between parasitoid generations. Using florescence in situ hybridization (FISH and transmission electron microscopy we found that Rickettsia invades Eretmocerus larvae during development in a Rickettsia-infected host, persists in adults and in females, reaches the ovaries. However, Rickettsia does not appear to penetrate the oocytes, but instead is localized in the follicular epithelial cells only. Consequently, Rickettsia is not vertically transmitted in Eretmocerus wasps, a result supported by diagnostic polymerase chain reaction (PCR. In contrast, Rickettsia proved to be merely transient in the digestive tract of Encarsia and was excreted with the meconia before wasp pupation. Adults of all three parasitoid species frequently acquired Rickettsia via contact with infected whiteflies, most likely by feeding on the host hemolymph (host feeding, but the rate of infection declined sharply within a few days of wasps being removed from infected whiteflies. In contrast with Rickettsia, Hamiltonella did not establish in any of the parasitoids tested, and none of the parasitoids acquired Hamiltonella by host feeding. This study demonstrates potential routes and barriers to horizontal

Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, R. S.; Nowak, K.; Cifelli, R.; Brekke, L. D.

2017-12-01

The Bureau of Reclamation, as the largest water wholesaler and the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States, benefits from skillful forecasts of future water availability. Researchers, water managers from local, regional, and federal agencies, and groups such as the Western States Water Council agree that improved precipitation and temperature forecast information at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is an area with significant potential benefit to water management. In response, and recognizing NOAA's leadership in forecasting, Reclamation has partnered with NOAA to develop and implement a real-time S2S forecasting competition. For a year, solvers are submitting forecasts of temperature and precipitation for weeks 3&4 and 5&6 every two weeks on a 1x1 degree grid for the 17 western state domain where Reclamation operates. The competition began on April 18, 2017 and the final real-time forecast is due April 3, 2018. Forecasts are evaluated once observational data become available using spatial anomaly correlation. Scores are posted on a competition leaderboard hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The leaderboard can be accessed at: https://www.drought.gov/drought/sub-seasonal-climate-forecast-rodeo. To be eligible for cash prizes - which total $800,000 - solvers must outperform two benchmark forecasts during the real-time competition as well as in a required 11-year hind-cast. To receive a prize, competitors must grant a non-exclusive license to practice their forecast technique and make it available as open source software. At approximately one quarter complete, there are teams outperforming the benchmarks in three of the four competition categories. With prestige and monetary incentives on the line, it is hoped that the competition will spur innovation of improved S2S forecasts through novel approaches, enhancements to established models, or otherwise. Additionally, the competition aims to raise

Real time bayesian estimation of the epidemic potential of emerging infectious diseases.

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Luís M A Bettencourt

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Fast changes in human demographics worldwide, coupled with increased mobility, and modified land uses make the threat of emerging infectious diseases increasingly important. Currently there is worldwide alert for H5N1 avian influenza becoming as transmissible in humans as seasonal influenza, and potentially causing a pandemic of unprecedented proportions. Here we show how epidemiological surveillance data for emerging infectious diseases can be interpreted in real time to assess changes in transmissibility with quantified uncertainty, and to perform running time predictions of new cases and guide logistics allocations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We develop an extension of standard epidemiological models, appropriate for emerging infectious diseases, that describes the probabilistic progression of case numbers due to the concurrent effects of (incipient human transmission and multiple introductions from a reservoir. The model is cast in terms of surveillance observables and immediately suggests a simple graphical estimation procedure for the effective reproductive number R (mean number of cases generated by an infectious individual of standard epidemics. For emerging infectious diseases, which typically show large relative case number fluctuations over time, we develop a bayesian scheme for real time estimation of the probability distribution of the effective reproduction number and show how to use such inferences to formulate significance tests on future epidemiological observations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Violations of these significance tests define statistical anomalies that may signal changes in the epidemiology of emerging diseases and should trigger further field investigation. We apply the methodology to case data from World Health Organization reports to place bounds on the current transmissibility of H5N1 influenza in humans and establish a statistical basis for monitoring its evolution in real time.

Timing of Seasonal Sales.

OpenAIRE

Courty, Pascal; Li, Hao

1999-01-01

We present a model of timing of seasonal sales where stores choose several designs at the beginning of the season without knowing wich one, if any, will be fashionable. Fashionable designs have a chance to fetch high prices in fashion markets while non-fashionable ones must be sold in a discount market. In the beginning of the season, stores charge high prices in the hope of capturing their fashion market. As the end of the season approaches with goods still on the shelves, stores adjust down...

Neuroglial Transmission

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gundersen, Vidar; Storm-Mathisen, Jon; Bergersen, Linda Hildegard

2015-01-01

as a signaling substance recently shown to act on specific lactate receptors in the brain. Complementing neurotransmission at a synapse, neuroglial transmission often implies diffusion of the transmitter over a longer distance and concurs with the concept of volume transmission. Transmission from glia modulates...... synaptic neurotransmission based on energetic and other local conditions in a volume of tissue surrounding the individual synapse. Neuroglial transmission appears to contribute significantly to brain functions such as memory, as well as to prevalent neuropathologies....

47 CFR 25.212 - Narrowband analog transmissions, digital transmissions, and video transmissions in the GSO Fixed...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Narrowband analog transmissions, digital transmissions, and video transmissions in the GSO Fixed-Satellite Service. 25.212 Section 25.212 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS...

Discrimination of chicken seasonings and beef seasonings using electronic nose and sensory evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Huaixiang; Li, Fenghua; Qin, Lan; Yu, Haiyan; Ma, Xia

2014-11-01

This study examines the feasibility of electronic nose as a method to discriminate chicken and beef seasonings and to predict sensory attributes. Sensory evaluation showed that 8 chicken seasonings and 4 beef seasonings could be well discriminated and classified based on 8 sensory attributes. The sensory attributes including chicken/beef, gamey, garlic, spicy, onion, soy sauce, retention, and overall aroma intensity were generated by a trained evaluation panel. Principal component analysis (PCA), discriminant factor analysis (DFA), and cluster analysis (CA) combined with electronic nose were used to discriminate seasoning samples based on the difference of the sensor response signals of chicken and beef seasonings. The correlation between sensory attributes and electronic nose sensors signal was established using partial least squares regression (PLSR) method. The results showed that the seasoning samples were all correctly classified by the electronic nose combined with PCA, DFA, and CA. The electronic nose gave good prediction results for all the sensory attributes with correlation coefficient (r) higher than 0.8. The work indicated that electronic nose is an effective method for discriminating different seasonings and predicting sensory attributes. © 2014 Institute of Food Technologists®

Testing Selective Transmission with Low Power Listening

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Morten Tranberg; Arroyo-Valles, Rocio; Cid-Sueiro, Jesus

2010-01-01

Selective transmission policies allow nodes in a sensor network to autonomously decide between transmitting or discarding packets depending on the importance of the information content and the energetic cost of communications. The potential benefits of these policies depend on the capability...

Alternatives to electricity for transmission and annual-scale firming - Storage for diverse, stranded, renewable energy resources: hydrogen and ammonia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leighty, William

2010-09-15

The world's richest renewable energy resources 'of large geographic extent and high intensity' are stranded: far from end-users with inadequate or nonexistent gathering and transmission systems to deliver energy. Output of most renewables varies greatly, at time scales of seconds-seasons: energy capture assets operate at low capacity factor; energy delivery is not 'firm'. New electric transmission systems, or fractions thereof, dedicated to renewables, suffer the same low CF: substantial stranded capital assets, increasing the cost of delivered renewable-source energy. Electricity storage cannot affordably firm large renewables at annual scale. Gaseous hydrogen and anhydrous ammonia fuels can: attractive alternatives.

Optical transmission through multi-component generalized Thue-Morse superlattices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang Guogang [MOE Key Laboratory of Laser Life Science and Institute of Laser Life Science, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631 (China); Yang Xiangbo, E-mail: xbyang@scnu.edu.c [MOE Key Laboratory of Laser Life Science and Institute of Laser Life Science, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631 (China); Li Yuhong; Song Huanhuan [MOE Key Laboratory of Laser Life Science and Institute of Laser Life Science, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631 (China)

2010-09-01

In this paper, by the three kinds of basic components (BCs) of three-component Thue-Morse (3CTM) sequence we construct a type of interesting optical basic-structural-units (BSUs) and propose multi-component generalized Thue-Morse (mCGTM) model. Based on the conventional electromagnetic wave theory we investigate the optical transmission vertically through the one-dimensional (1D) mCGTM superlattices. It is found that the optical transmission possesses an interesting pseudo-constant characteristic at the central wavelength. mCGTM sequence exhibits a cantor-set structure which results in the system possessing certain kinds of effective component pairs (ECPs), and each kind of ECP brings about certain contribution towards the optical transmission. The cantor-set structure is the reason that mCGTM multilayers exhibit the optical transmission pseudo-constant property. For the pseudo-constant optical transmission of mCGTM superlattices, there would be a potential application in the designing of some complex optical devices.

Genome-wide analysis of positively selected genes in seasonal and non-seasonal breeding species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuhuan Meng

Full Text Available Some mammals breed throughout the year, while others breed only at certain times of year. These differences in reproductive behavior can be explained by evolution. We identified positively-selected genes in two sets of species with different degrees of relatedness including seasonal and non-seasonal breeding species, using branch-site models. After stringent filtering by sum of pairs scoring, we revealed that more genes underwent positive selection in seasonal compared with non-seasonal breeding species. Positively-selected genes were verified by cDNA mapping of the positive sites with the corresponding cDNA sequences. The design of the evolutionary analysis can effectively lower the false-positive rate and thus identify valid positive genes. Validated, positively-selected genes, including CGA, DNAH1, INVS, and CD151, were related to reproductive behaviors such as spermatogenesis and cell proliferation in non-seasonal breeding species. Genes in seasonal breeding species, including THRAP3, TH1L, and CMTM6, may be related to the evolution of sperm and the circadian rhythm system. Identification of these positively-selected genes might help to identify the molecular mechanisms underlying seasonal and non-seasonal reproductive behaviors.

Potential predictability of a Colombian river flow

Science.gov (United States)

Córdoba-Machado, Samir; Palomino-Lemus, Reiner; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Matilde; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

2017-04-01

In this study the predictability of an important Colombian river (Cauca) has been analysed based on the use of climatic variables as potential predictors. Cauca River is considered one of the most important rivers of Colombia because its basin supports important productive activities related with the agriculture, such as the production of coffee or sugar. Potential relationships between the Cauca River seasonal streamflow anomalies and different climatic variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation (Pt), temperature over land (Tm) and soil water (Sw) have been analysed for the period 1949-2009. For this end, moving correlation analysis of 30 years have been carried out for lags from one to four seasons for the global SST, and from one to two seasons for South America Pt, Tm and Sw. Also, the stability of the significant correlations have been also studied, identifying the regions used as potential predictors of streamflow. Finally, in order to establish a prediction scheme based on the previous stable correlations, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied on the potential predictor regions has been carried out in order to obtain a representative time series for each predictor field. Significant and stable correlations between the seasonal streamflow and the tropical Pacific SST (El Niño region) are found for lags from one to four (one-year) season. Additionally, some regions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans also show significant and stable correlations at different lags, highlighting the importance that exerts the Atlantic SST on the hydrology of Colombia. Also significant and stable correlations are found with the Pt, Tm and Sw for some regions over South America, at lags of one and two seasons. The prediction of Cauca seasonal streamflow based on this scheme shows an acceptable skill and represents a relative improvement compared with the predictability obtained using the teleconnection indices associated with El Niño. Keywords

Seasonal changes in mood and behavior are linked to metabolic syndrome.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reeta Rintamäki

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Obesity is a major public health problem worldwide. Metabolic syndrome is a risk factor to the cardiovascular diseases. It has been reported that disruptions of the circadian clockwork are associated with and may predispose to metabolic syndrome. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 8028 individuals attended a nationwide health examination survey in Finland. Data were collected with a face-to-face interview at home and during an individual health status examination. The waist circumference, height, weight and blood pressure were measured and samples were taken for laboratory tests. Participants were assessed using the ATP-III criteria for metabolic syndrome and with the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire for their seasonal changes in mood and behavior. Seasonal changes in weight in particular were a risk factor of metabolic syndrome, after controlling for a number of known risk and potential confounding factors. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Metabolic syndrome is associated with high global scores on the seasonal changes in mood and behavior, and with those in weight in particular. Assessment of these changes may serve as a useful indicator of metabolic syndrome, because of easy assessment. Abnormalities in the circadian clockwork which links seasonal fluctuations to metabolic cycles may predispose to seasonal changes in weight and to metabolic syndrome.

Seasonal Variation in Epidemiology

Science.gov (United States)

Marrero, Osvaldo

2013-01-01

Seasonality analyses are important in medical research. If the incidence of a disease shows a seasonal pattern, then an environmental factor must be considered in its etiology. We discuss a method for the simultaneous analysis of seasonal variation in multiple groups. The nuts and bolts are explained using simple trigonometry, an elementary…

Multiple mechanisms of transmission of the Caribbean coral disease white plague

Science.gov (United States)

Clemens, E.; Brandt, M. E.

2015-12-01

White plague is one of the most devastating coral diseases in the Caribbean, and yet important aspects of its epidemiology, including how the disease transmits, remain unknown. This study tested potential mechanisms and rates of transmission of white plague in a laboratory setting. Transmission mechanisms including the transport of water, contact with macroalgae, and predation via corallivorous worms and snails were tested on the host species Orbicella annularis. Two of the tested mechanisms were shown to transmit disease: water transport and the corallivorous snail Coralliophila abbreviata. Between these transmission mechanisms, transport of water between a diseased coral and a healthy coral resulted in disease incidence significantly more frequently in exposed healthy corals. Transmission via water transport also occurred more quickly and was associated with higher rates of tissue loss (up to 3.5 cm d-1) than with the corallivorous snail treatment. In addition, water that was in contact with diseased corals but was filtered with a 0.22-μm filter prior to being introduced to apparently healthy corals also resulted in the transmission of disease signs, but at a much lower rate than when water was not filtered. This study has provided important information on the transmission potential of Caribbean white plague disease and highlights the need for a greater understanding of how these processes operate in the natural environment.

A framework for improving a seasonal hydrological forecasting system using sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Arnal, Louise; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul; Cloke, Hannah

2017-04-01

the forecasting chain (i.e., IHC or MF) could potentially lead to the highest increase in seasonal hydrological forecasting performance, after each forecast update.

Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders

Science.gov (United States)

Challinor, Andy J.; Adger, W. Neil; Benton, Tim G.; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave

2018-06-01

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.

Lousy mums: patterns of vertical transmission of an amphibious louse.

Science.gov (United States)

Leonardi, M S; Crespo, E A; Raga, J A; Aznar, F J

2013-09-01

In this study, we document patterns of vertical transmission of the amphibious louse Antarctophthirus microchir (Echinophthiriidae) in pups of South American sea lion, Otaria flavescens, from Patagonia. Vertical transmission is fundamental for the long-term stability of A. microchir populations because only pups stay long enough (1 month) on land for the louse to reproduce. A total of 72 pups ≤7 days old from a single rookery were captured and examined for lice. Infection parameters and population structure of A. microchir did not differ among pups collected at the beginning, middle, and end of the reproductive season, suggesting that patterns of early vertical transmission are not affected by the increase of rookery size during this period. Over 60% of 1-day-old pups were infected with A. microchir, and recruitment increased in pups up to 3 days old and then leveled off. In 1-day-old pups, significantly more adults than nymphs were found, but the pattern was reversed in older pups. The number of first-stage nymphs was significantly smaller than that of second- and third-stage nymphs, as it was the number of males vs. females, particularly in 1-day-old pups. Three non-exclusive hypotheses could account for these patterns, i.e., recruitment merely reflects the population structure of A. microchir is cows; the relative ability of lice to pass from cows onto pups increases in advanced instars; and/or natural selection favors transmission of adults, especially females, because they accrue greater fitness. The importance of latter hypothesis should not be underestimated in a species with a tight reproductive schedule.

Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Sene, Kevin; Tych, Wlodek; Beven, Keith

2018-01-01

In seasonal flow forecasting applications, one factor which can help predictability is a significant hydrological response time between rainfall and flows. On account of storage influences, large lakes therefore provide a useful test case although, due to the spatial scales involved, there are a number of modelling challenges related to data availability and understanding the individual components in the water balance. Here some possible model structures are investigated using a range of stochastic regression and transfer function techniques with additional insights gained from simple analytical approximations. The methods were evaluated using records for two of the largest lakes in the world - Lake Malawi and Lake Victoria - with forecast skill demonstrated several months ahead using water balance models formulated in terms of net inflows. In both cases slight improvements were obtained for lead times up to 4-5 months from including climate indices in the data assimilation component. The paper concludes with a discussion of the relevance of the results to operational flow forecasting systems for other large lakes.

Nonbreeding-Season Drivers of Population Dynamics in Seasonal Migrants: Conservation Parallels Across Taxa

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Anna M. Calvert

2009-12-01

Full Text Available For seasonal migrants, logistical constraints have often limited conservation efforts to improving survival and reproduction during the breeding season only. Yet, mounting empirical evidence suggests that events occurring throughout the migratory life cycle can critically alter the demography of many migrant species. Herein, we build upon recent syntheses of avian migration research to review the role of non-breeding seasons in determining the population dynamics and fitness of diverse migratory taxa, including salmonid fishes, marine mammals, ungulates, sea turtles, butterflies, and numerous bird groups. We discuss several similarities across these varied migrants: (i non-breeding survivorship tends to be a strong driver of population growth; (ii non-breeding events can affect fitness in subsequent seasons through seasonal interactions at individual- and population-levels; (iii broad-scale climatic influences often alter non-breeding resources and migration timing, and may amplify population impacts through covariation among seasonal vital rates; and (iv changes to both stationary and migratory non-breeding habitats can have important consequences for abundance and population trends. Finally, we draw on these patterns to recommend that future conservation research for seasonal migrants will benefit from: (1 more explicit recognition of the important parallels among taxonomically diverse migratory animals; (2 an expanded research perspective focused on quantification of all seasonal vital rates and their interactions; and (3 the development of detailed population projection models that account for complexity and uncertainty in migrant population dynamics.