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Sample records for scheme reduce catastrophic

  1. Indian community health insurance schemes provide partial protection against catastrophic health expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranson Kent

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background More than 72% of health expenditure in India is financed by individual households at the time of illness through out-of-pocket payments. This is a highly regressive way of financing health care and sometimes leads to impoverishment. Health insurance is recommended as a measure to protect households from such catastrophic health expenditure (CHE. We studied two Indian community health insurance (CHI schemes, ACCORD and SEWA, to determine whether insured households are protected from CHE. Methods ACCORD provides health insurance cover for the indigenous population, living in Gudalur, Tamil Nadu. SEWA provides insurance cover for self employed women in the state of Gujarat. Both cover hospitalisation expenses, but only upto a maximum limit of US$23 and US$45, respectively. We reviewed the insurance claims registers in both schemes and identified patients who were hospitalised during the period 01/04/2003 to 31/03/2004. Details of their diagnoses, places and costs of treatment and self-reported annual incomes were obtained. There is no single definition of CHE and none of these have been validated. For this research, we used the following definition; "annual hospital expenditure greater than 10% of annual income," to identify those who experienced CHE. Results There were a total of 683 and 3152 hospital admissions at ACCORD and SEWA, respectively. In the absence of the CHI scheme, all of the patients at ACCORD and SEWA would have had to pay OOP for their hospitalisation. With the CHI scheme, 67% and 34% of patients did not have to make any out-of-pocket (OOP payment for their hospital expenses at ACCORD and SEWA, respectively. Both CHI schemes halved the number of households that would have experienced CHE by covering hospital costs. However, despite this, 4% and 23% of households with admissions still experienced CHE at ACCORD and SEWA, respectively. This was related to the following conditions: low annual income, benefit

  2. National Health Insurance Scheme: How Protected Are Households in Oyo State, Nigeria from Catastrophic Health Expenditure?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background The major objective of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS in Nigeria is to protect families from the financial hardship of large medical bills. Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE is rampart in Nigeria despite the take-off of the NHIS. This study aimed to determine if households enrolled in the NHIS were protected from having CHE. Methods The study took place among 714 households in urban communities of Oyo State. CHE was measured using a threshold of 40% of monthly non-food expenditure. Descriptive statistics were done, Principal Component Analysis was used to divide households into wealth quintiles. Chi-square test and binary logistic regression were done. Results The mean age of household respondent was 33.5 years. The median household income was 43,500 naira (290 US dollars and the range was 7,000–680,000 naira (46.7–4,533 US dollars in 2012. The overall median household healthcare cost was 890 naira (5.9 US dollars and the range was 10-17,700 naira (0.1–118 US dollars in 2012. In all, 67 (9.4% households were enrolled in NHIS scheme. Healthcare services was utilized by 637 (82.9% and CHE occurred in 42 (6.6% households. CHE occurred in 14 (10.9% of the households in the lowest quintile compared to 3 (2.5% in the highest wealth quintile (P= 0.004. The odds of CHE among households in lowest wealth quintile is about 5 times. They had Crude OR (CI: 4.7 (1.3–16.8, P= 0.022. Non enrolled households were two times likely to have CHE, though not significant Conclusion Households in the lowest wealth quintiles were at higher risk of CHE. Universal coverage of health insurance in Nigeria should be fast-tracked to give the expected financial risk protection and decreased incidence of CHE.

  3. Autonomous Droop Scheme With Reduced Generation Cost

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nutkani, Inam Ullah; Loh, Poh Chiang; Wang, Peng

    2014-01-01

    ) of the microgrid. To reduce this TGC without relying on fast communication links, an autonomous droop scheme is proposed here, whose resulting power sharing is decided by the individual DG generation costs. Comparing it with the traditional scheme, the proposed scheme retains its simplicity and it is hence more....... This objective might, however, not suit microgrids well since DGs are usually of different types, unlike synchronous generators. Other factors like cost, efficiency, and emission penalty of each DG at different loading must be considered since they contribute directly to the total generation cost (TGC...

  4. Can health insurance protect against out-of-pocket and catastrophic expenditures and also support poverty reduction? Evidence from Ghana's National Health Insurance Scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryeetey, Genevieve Cecilia; Westeneng, Judith; Spaan, Ernst; Jehu-Appiah, Caroline; Agyepong, Irene Akua; Baltussen, Rob

    2016-07-22

    Ghana since 2004, begun implementation of a National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) to minimize financial barriers to health care at point of use of service. Usually health insurance is expected to offer financial protection to households. This study aims to analyze the effect health insurance on household out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE), catastrophic expenditure (CE) and poverty. We conducted two repeated household surveys in two regions of Ghana in 2009 and 2011. We first analyzed the effect of OOPE on poverty by estimating poverty headcount before and after OOPE were incurred. We also employed probit models and use of instrumental variables to analyze the effect of health insurance on OOPE, CE and poverty. Our findings showed that between 7-18 % of insured households incurred CE as a result of OOPE whereas this was between 29-36 % for uninsured households. In addition, between 3-5 % of both insured and uninsured households fell into poverty due to OOPE. Our regression analyses revealed that health insurance enrolment reduced OOPE by 86 % and protected households against CE and poverty by 3.0 % and 7.5 % respectively. This study provides evidence that high OOPE leads to CE and poverty in Ghana but enrolment into the NHIS reduces OOPE, provides financial protection against CE and reduces poverty. These findings support the pro-poor policy objective of Ghana's National Health Insurance Scheme and holds relevance to other low and middle income countries implementing or aiming to implement insurance schemes.

  5. Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

    2009-12-29

    A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

  6. Autonomous droop scheme with reduced generation cost

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nutkani, Inam Ullah; Loh, Poh Chiang; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2013-01-01

    Droop scheme has been widely applied to the control of Distributed Generators (DGs) in microgrids for proportional power sharing based on their ratings. For standalone microgrid, where centralized management system is not viable, the proportional power sharing based droop might not suit well since...... DGs are usually of different types unlike synchronous generators. This paper presents an autonomous droop scheme that takes into consideration the operating cost, efficiency and emission penalty of each DG since all these factors directly or indirectly contributes to the Total Generation Cost (TGC......) of the overall microgrid. Comparing it with the traditional scheme, the proposed scheme has retained its simplicity, which certainly is a feature preferred by the industry. The overall performance of the proposed scheme has been verified through simulation and experiment....

  7. Berm design to reduce risks of catastrophic slope failures at solid waste disposal sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Stefano, Matteo; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Clemmer, Ryan; Jahanfar, M Ali

    2016-11-01

    Existing waste disposal sites are being strained by exceeding their volumetric capacities because of exponentially increasing rates of municipal solid waste generation worldwide, especially in densely populated metropolises. Over the past 40 years, six well-documented and analyzed disposal sites experienced catastrophic failure. This research presents a novel analysis and design method for implementation of a series of in-situ earth berms to slow down the movement of waste material flow following a catastrophic failure. This is the first study of its kind that employs a dynamic landslide analysis model, DAN-W, and the Voellmy rheological model to approximate solid waste avalanche flow. A variety of single and multiple berm configuration scenarios were developed and tested to find an optimum configuration of the various earth berm geometries and number of berms to achieve desired energy dissipation and reduction in total waste material runout length. The case study application of the novel mitigation measure shows that by constructing a series of six relatively inexpensive 3 m high earth berms at an optimum distance of 250 m from the slope toe, the total runout length of 1000 m and associated fatalities of the Leuwigajah dumpsite catastrophic failure in Bandung, Indonesia, could have been reduced by half. © The Author(s) 2016.

  8. Impact of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme on the trend of catastrophic health expenditure in Chinese rural households: results from nationally representative surveys from 2003 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Biao; Huo, Minghe; Wang, Zhiqiang; Chen, Yongjie; Fu, Rong; Liu, Meina; Meng, Qun

    2018-02-08

    To evaluate the trend of catastrophic health expenses (CHE) for inpatient care in relation to the commencement of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) in rural China from 2003 to 2013, and the roles of NCMS in protecting affected households from CHE. We assessed the 10-year trend of the incidence and severity of CHE in rural households with hospitalised members using data from the Chinese National Health Services Survey. Generalised estimating equations were used to estimate the OR and 95% CI of the association between incidence rates of CHE ([Formula: see text]) and NCMS reimbursement. The incidence and severity of CHE after NCMS reimbursement both decreased and their changes increased rapidly from 2003 to 2013. After adjustment of the covariates, [Formula: see text] before reimbursement was significantly higher than that after reimbursement, and the OR (95% CI) was 1.50 (1.24 to 1.81), 1.79 (1.69 to 1.90) and 2.94 (2.77 to 3.11) in 2003, 2008 and 2013, respectively. The incidence and severity of CHE both reduced after NCMS reimbursements in each year. Excluding some confounding factors, [Formula: see text] was significantly associated with NCMS reimbursement. NCMS partly protected the rural households with hospitalised members from CHE. However, the inequalities between different income groups still existed. [Formula: see text] in rural households with hospitalised members was still rather high in 2003, 2008 and 2013 even though they were covered by NCMS. This study will provide suggestions for further reforms in China and guidance for other low-income/middle-income countries. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  9. Reduction of catastrophic health care expenditures by a community-based health insurance scheme in Gujarat, India: current experiences and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranson, Michael Kent

    2002-01-01

    To assess the Self Employed Women's Association's Medical Insurance Fund in Gujarat in terms of insurance coverage according to income groups, protection of claimants from costs of hospitalization, time between discharge and reimbursement, and frequency of use. One thousand nine hundred and thirty claims submitted over six years were analysed. Two hundred and fifteen (11%) of 1927 claims were rejected. The mean household income of claimants was significantly lower than that of the general population. The percentage of households below the poverty line was similar for claimants and the general population. One thousand seven hundred and twelve (1712) claims were reimbursed: 805 (47%) fully and 907 (53%) at a mean reimbursement rate of 55.6%. Reimbursement more than halved the percentage of catastrophic hospitalizations (>10% of annual household income) and hospitalizations resulting in impoverishment. The average time between discharge and reimbursement was four months. The frequency of submission of claims was low (18.0/1000 members per year: 22-37% of the estimated frequency of hospitalization). The findings have implications for community-based health insurance schemes in India and elsewhere. Such schemes can protect poor households against the uncertain risk of medical expenses. They can be implemented in areas where institutional capacity is too weak to organize nationwide risk-pooling. Such schemes can cover poor people, including people and households below the poverty line. A trade off exists between maintaining the scheme's financial viability and protecting members against catastrophic expenditures. To facilitate reimbursement, administration, particularly processing of claims, should happen near claimants. Fine-tuning the design of a scheme is an ongoing process - a system of monitoring and evaluation is vital.

  10. A reduced feedback proportional fair multiuser scheduling scheme

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad

    2011-12-01

    Multiuser switched-diversity scheduling schemes were recently proposed in order to overcome the heavy feedback requirements of conventional opportunistic scheduling schemes by applying a threshold-based, distributed and ordered scheduling mechanism. A slight reduction in the prospected multiuser diversity gains is an acceptable trade-off for great savings in terms of required channel-state-information feedback messages. In this work, we propose a novel proportional fair multiuser switched-diversity scheduling scheme and we demonstrate that it can be optimized using a practical and distributed method to obtain the per-user feedback thresholds. We demonstrate by numerical examples that our reduced feedback proportional fair scheduler operates within 0.3 bits/sec/Hz from the achievable rates by the conventional full feedback proportional fair scheduler in Rayleigh fading conditions. © 2011 IEEE.

  11. Seizing Catastrophes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2013-01-01

    to a distant past but takes place in the present. They use the term Nakba not only to refer to the catastrophe of 1948 but also to designate current catastrophes, such as the Danish Muhammad cartoons affair in 2005 and the Israeli invasion of Gaza in 2008. Through an analysis of the 60th commemoration...

  12. A study to reduce the numerical diffusion of upwind scheme in two dimensional convection phenomena analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Goung Jin; Kim, Soong Pyung

    1990-01-01

    In solving the convection-diffusion phenomena, it is common to use central difference scheme or upwind scheme. The central difference scheme has second order accuracy, while the upwind scheme is only first order accurate. However, since the variation rising in the convection-diffusion problem is exponential, central difference scheme ceased to be a good method for anything but extremely small values of Δx. At large values of Δx, which is all one can afford in most practical problems, it is the upwind scheme that gives more reasonable results than the central scheme. But in the conventional upwind scheme, since the accuracy is only first order, false diffusion is somewhat large, and when the real diffusion is smaller than the numerical diffusion, solutions may be very errorneous. So in this paper, a method to reduce the numerical diffusion of upwind scheme is studied. Developed scheme uses same number of nodes as conventional upwind scheme, but it considers the direction of flow more sophistically. As a conclusion, the developed scheme shows very good results. It can reduce false diffusion greatly with the cost of small complexity. Also, algorithm of the developed scheme is presented at appendix. (Author)

  13. Climate catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budyko, Mikhail

    1999-05-01

    Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

  14. On sociological catastrophe analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clausen, L.

    1974-01-01

    The present paper deals with standard terms of sociological catastrophe theory hitherto existing, collective behaviour during the catastrophe, and consequences for the empiric catastrophe sociology. (RW) [de

  15. Replication Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo, Luis; Neelsen, Kai John; Lukas, Jiri

    2017-01-01

    Proliferating cells rely on the so-called DNA replication checkpoint to ensure orderly completion of genome duplication, and its malfunction may lead to catastrophic genome disruption, including unscheduled firing of replication origins, stalling and collapse of replication forks, massive DNA...... breakage, and, ultimately, cell death. Despite many years of intensive research into the molecular underpinnings of the eukaryotic replication checkpoint, the mechanisms underlying the dismal consequences of its failure remain enigmatic. A recent development offers a unifying model in which the replication...... checkpoint guards against global exhaustion of rate-limiting replication regulators. Here we discuss how such a mechanism can prevent catastrophic genome disruption and suggest how to harness this knowledge to advance therapeutic strategies to eliminate cancer cells that inherently proliferate under...

  16. An Optimized Virtual Scheme for Reducing Collisions in MAC Layer

    OpenAIRE

    M. Sivakumar; S. Saravanan

    2015-01-01

    The main function of Medium Access Control (MAC) is to share the channel efficiently between all nodes. In the real-time scenario, there will be certain amount of wastage in bandwidth due to back-off periods. More bandwidth will be wasted in idle state if the back-off period is very high and collision may occur if the back-off period is small. So, an optimization is needed for this problem. The main objective of the work is to reduce delay due to back-off period thereby reducing collision and...

  17. Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

    1996-12-31

    The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

  18. Cosmic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, J. Craig

    2014-08-01

    Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

  19. The Potential of Road Pricing Schemes for Reducing Carbon Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nocera, S.; Giaretta, F.; Cavallaro, F.

    2016-07-01

    Road pricing is a transport measure mainly conceived to fund road management, to regulate the demand for traffic and to reduce the number of private vehicles circulating in urban areas. It can also grant benefits in terms of environmental externalities including the reduction of CO2 emissions, which has recently become one of the most important elements defining the sustainability of a transport system. However, the carbon potential granted by road charging is rarely assessed, thus confirming a sort of secondary role attributed to CO2 in urban premises. This paper provides an accurate analysis of the relationship between the different forms of road pricing (including distance-based, congestion-based and pay-as-you-drive) and their effective role in terms of carbon reduction, which in some contexts is higher than 10%. Furthermore, practical suggestions to policy makers in terms of implementation of the measure are discussed, highlighting the precautions necessary to include a fair carbon evaluation into an overall effective analysis. (Author)

  20. Reverse Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Czapliński

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

  1. Can health insurance protect against out-of-pocket and catastrophic expenditures and also support poverty reduction? Evidence from Ghana's National Health Insurance Scheme

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aryeetey, G.C.; Westeneng, J.; Spaan, E.J.; Jehu-Appiah, C.; Agyepong, I.A.; Baltussen, R.M.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Ghana since 2004, begun implementation of a National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) to minimize financial barriers to health care at point of use of service. Usually health insurance is expected to offer financial protection to households. This study aims to analyze the effect health

  2. Catastrophes control problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velichenko, V.V.

    1994-01-01

    The problem of catastrophe control is discussed. Catastrophe control aims to withdraw responsible engineering constructions out of the catastrophe. The mathematical framework of catastrophes control systems is constructed. It determines the principles of systems filling by the concrete physical contents and, simultaneously, permits to employ modern control methods for the synthesis of optimal withdrawal strategy for protected objects

  3. Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Cairns, Jr.

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

  4. Non-evidence-based policy: how effective is China's new cooperative medical scheme in reducing medical impoverishment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Winnie; Hsiao, William C

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, many lower to middle income countries have looked to insurance as a means to protect their populations from medical impoverishment. In 2003, the Chinese government initiated the New Cooperative Medical System (NCMS), a government-run voluntary insurance program for its rural population. The prevailing model of NCMS combines medical savings accounts with high-deductible catastrophic hospital insurance (MSA/Catastrophic). To assess the effectiveness of this approach in reducing medical impoverishment, we used household survey data from 2006 linked to claims records of health expenditures to simulate the effect of MSA/Catastrophic on reducing the share of individuals falling below the poverty line (headcount), and the amount by which household resources fall short of the poverty line (poverty gap) due to medical expenses. We compared the effects of MSA/Catastrophic to Rural Mutual Health Care (RMHC), an experimental model that provides first dollar coverage for primary care, hospital services and drugs with a similar premium but a lower ceiling. Our results show that RMHC is more effective at reducing medical impoverishment than NCMS. Under the internationally accepted poverty line of US$1.08 per person per day, the MSA/Catastrophic models would reduce the poverty headcount by 3.5-3.9% and the average poverty gap by 11.8-16.4%, compared with reductions of 6.1-6.8% and 15-18.5% under the RMHC model. The primary reason for this is that NCMS does not address a major cause of medical impoverishment: expensive outpatient services for chronic conditions. As such, health policymakers need first to examine the disease profile and health expenditure pattern of a population before they can direct resources to where they will be most effective. As chronic diseases impose a growing share of the burden on the population in developing countries, it is not necessarily true that insurance coverage focusing on expensive hospital care alone is the most effective at

  5. Whether New Cooperative Mmedical Schemes reduce the economic burden of chronic disease in rural China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Shanshan; Yin, Aitian; Shi, Lizheng; Liu, Jinan

    2013-01-01

    The New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) provides health insurance coverage for rural populations in China. This study aimed to evaluate changes in household catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) due to chronic disease before and after the reimbursement policies for services of chronic disease were implemented to provide additional financial support. The study used data from the household surveys conducted in Shandong Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in 2006 and 2008. The study sample in village-level units was divided into two groups: 36 villages which implemented the NCMS reimbursement policies for chronic diseases as the intervention group, and 72 villages which did not as the control group. Health care expenditure of more than 40% of household's non-food expenditure was defined as a household with CHE (i.e., impoverishment). The conceptual framework was established based on the Andersen socio-behavioral model of health care utilization to explore how the NCMS reimbursement policies impacted health expenditures. A difference-in-difference model was employed to compare the change in the proportion of households incurring CHE due to chronic disease between the two groups over time. The households that participated in the NCMS were less likely to become impoverished (P<0.05). In addition, the households with both male household head and higher income level were protective factors to prevent CHE (P<0.05). Young households with preschool children suffered less from CHE (P<0.05). The effect of the NCMS reimbursement policies for chronic disease on the CHE was negative, yet not statistically significant (p = 0.814). The NCMS coverage showed financial protection for households with chronic disease. However, the NCMS reimbursement policies should be strengthened in the future.

  6. Whether New Cooperative Mmedical Schemes reduce the economic burden of chronic disease in rural China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Jing

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS provides health insurance coverage for rural populations in China. This study aimed to evaluate changes in household catastrophic health expenditure (CHE due to chronic disease before and after the reimbursement policies for services of chronic disease were implemented to provide additional financial support. METHODS: The study used data from the household surveys conducted in Shandong Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in 2006 and 2008. The study sample in village-level units was divided into two groups: 36 villages which implemented the NCMS reimbursement policies for chronic diseases as the intervention group, and 72 villages which did not as the control group. Health care expenditure of more than 40% of household's non-food expenditure was defined as a household with CHE (i.e., impoverishment. The conceptual framework was established based on the Andersen socio-behavioral model of health care utilization to explore how the NCMS reimbursement policies impacted health expenditures. A difference-in-difference model was employed to compare the change in the proportion of households incurring CHE due to chronic disease between the two groups over time. RESULTS: The households that participated in the NCMS were less likely to become impoverished (P<0.05. In addition, the households with both male household head and higher income level were protective factors to prevent CHE (P<0.05. Young households with preschool children suffered less from CHE (P<0.05. The effect of the NCMS reimbursement policies for chronic disease on the CHE was negative, yet not statistically significant (p = 0.814. CONCLUSIONS: The NCMS coverage showed financial protection for households with chronic disease. However, the NCMS reimbursement policies should be strengthened in the future.

  7. Has the Janani Suraksha Yojana (a conditional maternity benefit transfer scheme) succeeded in reducing the economic burden of maternity in rural India? Evidence from the Varanasi district of Uttar Pradesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Saradiya; Singh, Aditya

    2018-02-05

    One of the constraints in the utilisation of maternal healthcare in India is the out-of-pocket expenditure. To improve the utilisation and to reduce the out-of-pocket expenditure, India launched a cash incentive scheme, Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), which provides monetary incentive to the mothers delivering in public facility. However, no study has yet examined the extent to which the JSY payments reduce the maternal healthcare induced catastrophic out-of-pocket expenditure burden of the households. This paper therefore attempts to examine the extent to which the JSY reduces the catastrophic expenditure estimate household expenditure on maternity, i.e. , all direct and indirect expenditure. The study used data on 396 mothers collected through a primary survey conducted in the rural areas of the Varanasi district of Uttar Pradesh state in 2013-2014. The degree and variation in the catastrophic impact of households' maternity spending was computed as share of out-of-pocket payment in total household income in relation to specific thresholds, across socioeconomic categories. Logistic regression was used to understand the determinants of catastrophic expenditure and whether the JSY has any role in influencing the expenditure pattern. Results revealed that the JSY beneficiaries on an average spent about 8.3% of their Annual Household Consumption Expenditure on maternity care. The JSY reimbursement could reduce this share only by 2.1%. The study found that the expenditure on antenatal and postnatal care made up a significant part of the direct medical expenditure on maternity among the JSY beneficiaries. The indirect or non-medical expenditure was about four times higher than the direct expenditure on maternity services. The out-of-pocket expenditure across income quintiles was found to be regressive i.e. the poor paid a greater proportion of their income towards maternity care than the rich. Results also showed that the JSY reimbursement helped only about 8% households

  8. Numerical solution of the 1D kinetics equations using a cubic reduced nodal scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez T, A.M.; Valle G, E. del; Delfin L, A.; Alonso V, G.

    2003-01-01

    In this work a finite differences technique centered in mesh based on a cubic reduced nodal scheme type finite element to solve the equations of the kinetics 1 D that include the equations corresponding to the concentrations of precursors of delayed neutrons is described. The technique of finite elements used is that of Galerkin where so much the neutron flux as the concentrations of precursors its are spatially approached by means of a three grade polynomial. The matrices of rigidity and of mass that arise during this discretization process are numerically evaluated using the open quadrature non standard of Newton-Cotes and that of Radau respectively. The purpose of the application of these quadratures is the one of to eliminate in the global matrices the couplings among the values of the flow in points of the discretization with the consequent advantages as for the reduction of the order of the matrix associated to the discreet problem that is to solve. As for the time dependent part the classical integration scheme known as Θ scheme is applied. After carrying out the one reordering of unknown and equations it arrives to a reduced system that it can be solved but quickly. With the McKin compute program developed its were solved three benchmark problems and those results are shown for the relative powers. (Author)

  9. Financing Losses from Catastrophic Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-01

    often held in the form of bonds, the interest on which is subject to corporate income tax , which reduces the net earnings to each insurer’s shareholders...course; it is a basic feature of the corporate income tax . But, as explained above, catastrophe insurance is distinguished from other types of

  10. Catastrophizing in Patients with Burning Mouth Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana ANDABAK ROGULJ

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Burning mouth syndrome (BMS is an idiopathic painful condition which manifests with burning sensations in the oral cavity in patients with clinically normal oral mucosa and without any local and/or systemic causative factor. Catastrophizing is defined as an exaggerated negative orientation toward pain stimuli and pain experience. The aim of this study was to examine the association between catastrophizing and clinical parameters of BMS, and to examine the association between catastrophizing and the quality of life in patients with BMS. Materials and methods: Anonymous questionnaire consisting of 3 parts (demographic and clinical data with 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS, Croatian version of the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14 scale and Croatian version of the Pain Catastrophizing scale (PC, was distributed to 30 patients diagnosed with BMS. Results: A higher level of catastrophizing was clinically significant in 30% of the patients. Total catastrophizing score and all three subcomponents of catastrophizing significantly correlated with the intensity of symptoms, but did not correlate with the duration of symptoms. Gender and previous treatment did not affect the catastrophizing. Conclusion: Obtaining the information about catastrophizing could help a clinician to identify patients with negative behavioural patterns. Additional psychological intervention in these individuals could reduce/eliminate negative cognitive factors and improve coping with chronic painful condition such as BMS.

  11. The catastrophic decline of the Sumatran rhino (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis harrissoni in Sabah: Historic exploitation, reduced female reproductive performance and population viability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kretzschmar

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The reasons for catastrophic declines of Sumatran rhinos are far from clear and data necessary to improve decisions for conservation management are often lacking. We reviewed literature and assembled a comprehensive data set on surveys of the Sumatran rhino subspecies (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis harrissoni in the Malaysian state of Sabah on Borneo to chart the historical development of the population in Sabah and its exploitation until the present day. We fitted resource selection functions to identify habitat features preferred by a remnant population of rhinos living in the Tabin Wildlife Reserve in Sabah, and ran a series of population viability analyses (PVAs to extract the key demographic parameters most likely to affect population dynamics. We show that as preferred habitat, the individuals in the reserve were most likely encountered in elevated areas away from roads, in close distance to mud-volcanoes, with a low presence of human trespassers and a wallow on site, and within a neighbourhood of dense forest and grassland patches preferably on Fluvisols and Acrisols. Our population viability analyses identified the percentage of breeding females and female lifetime reproductive period as the crucial parameters driving population dynamics, in combination with total protection even moderate improvements could elevate population viability substantially. The analysis also indicates that unrestrained hunting between 1930 and 1950 drastically reduced the historical rhino population in Sabah and that the remnant population could be rescued by combining the effort of total protection and stimulation of breeding activity. Based on our results, we recommend to translocate isolated reproductively healthy individuals to protected locations and to undertake measures to maximise conceptions, or running state-of-the-art reproductive management with assisted reproduction techniques. Our study demonstrates that a judicious combination of techniques can do

  12. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2015-01-01

    as camps. Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in the Danish camps, this article explores why my interlocutors describe their current lives as a catastrophe. Al-Nakba literally means the catastrophe and, in Palestinian national discourse, it is used to designate the event of 1948, when the Palestinians...

  13. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rawhya R. El-Shereef

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

  14. Catastrophe Theory and Caustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gravesen, Jens

    1983-01-01

    It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed....

  15. Concurrent hyperthermia estimation schemes based on extended Kalman filtering and reduced-order modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potocki, J K; Tharp, H S

    1993-01-01

    The success of treating cancerous tissue with heat depends on the temperature elevation, the amount of tissue elevated to that temperature, and the length of time that the tissue temperature is elevated. In clinical situations the temperature of most of the treated tissue volume is unknown, because only a small number of temperature sensors can be inserted into the tissue. A state space model based on a finite difference approximation of the bioheat transfer equation (BHTE) is developed for identification purposes. A full-order extended Kalman filter (EKF) is designed to estimate both the unknown blood perfusion parameters and the temperature at unmeasured locations. Two reduced-order estimators are designed as computationally less intensive alternatives to the full-order EKF. Simulation results show that the success of the estimation scheme depends strongly on the number and location of the temperature sensors. Superior results occur when a temperature sensor exists in each unknown blood perfusion zone, and the number of sensors is at least as large as the number of unknown perfusion zones. Unacceptable results occur when there are more unknown perfusion parameters than temperature sensors, or when the sensors are placed in locations that do not sample the unknown perfusion information.

  16. 3-D fracture analysis using a partial-reduced integration scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leitch, B.W.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents details of 3-D elastic-plastic analyses of axially orientated external surface flaw in an internally pressurized thin-walled cylinder and discusses the variation of the J-integral values around the crack tip. A partial-reduced-integration-penalty method is introduced to minimize this variation of the J-integral near the crack tip. Utilizing 3-D symmetry, an eighth segment of a tube containing an elliptically shaped external surface flaw is modelled using 20-noded isoparametric elements. The crack-tip elements are collapsed to form a 1/r stress singularity about the curved crack front. The finite element model is subjected to internal pressure and axial pressure-generated loads. The virtual crack extension method is used to determine linear elastic stress intensity factors from the J-integral results at various points around the crack front. Despite the different material constants and the thinner wall thickness in this analysis, the elastic results compare favourably with those obtained by other researchers. The nonlinear stress-strain behaviour of the tube material is modelled using an incremental theory of plasticity. Variations of the J-integral values around the curved crack front of the 3-D flaw were seen. These variations could not be resolved by neglecting the immediate crack-tip elements J-integral results in favour of the more remote contour paths or else smoothed out when all the path results are averaged. Numerical incompatabilities in the 20-noded 3-D finite elements used to model the surface flaw were found. A partial-reduced integration scheme, using a combination of full and reduced integration elements, is proposed to determine J-integral results for 3-D fracture analyses. This procedure is applied to the analysis of an external semicircular surface flaw projecting halfway into the tube wall thickness. Examples of the J-integral values, before and after the partial-reduced integration method is employed, are given around the

  17. A suggested color scheme for reducing perception-related accidents on construction work sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, June-seong; Kim, Yong-woo; Kim, Ki-aeng; Koo, Bonsang

    2012-09-01

    Changes in workforce demographics have led to the need for more sophisticated approaches to addressing the safety requirements of the construction industry. Despite extensive research in other industry domains, the construction industry has been passive in exploring the impact of a color scheme; perception-related accidents have been effectively diminished by its implementation. The research demonstrated that the use of appropriate color schemes could improve the actions and psychology of workers on site, thereby increasing their perceptions of potentially dangerous situations. As a preliminary study, the objects selected by rigorous analysis on accident reports were workwear, safety net, gondola, scaffolding, and safety passage. The colors modified on site for temporary facilities were adopted from existing theoretical and empirical research that suggests the use of certain colors and their combinations to improve visibility and conspicuity while minimizing work fatigue. The color schemes were also tested and confirmed through two workshops with workers and managers currently involved in actual projects. The impacts of color schemes suggested in this paper are summarized as follows. First, the color schemes improve the conspicuity of facilities with other on site components, enabling workers to quickly discern and orient themselves in their work environment. Secondly, the color schemes have been selected to minimize the visual work fatigue and monotony that can potentially increase accidents. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Protocols of a catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stscherbak, J.

    1988-01-01

    In unusually frank terms the author, a journalist and epidemiologist, describes the catastrophe of Chernobyl as the 'most pathetic and important' experience of the Soviet people after World War II. Documents, interviews and statements of persons concerned trace the disaster of those days that surpasses imagination and describe how individual persons witnessed the coming true of visions of terror. (orig./HSCH) [de

  19. Direct catastrophic injury in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Barry P

    2005-11-01

    Catastrophic sports injuries are rare but tragic events. Direct (traumatic) catastrophic injury results from participating in the skills of a sport, such as a collision in football. Football is associated with the greatest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all major team sports in the United States. Pole vaulting, gymnastics, ice hockey, and football have the highest incidence of direct catastrophic injuries for sports in which males participate. In most sports, the rate of catastrophic injury is higher at the collegiate than at the high school level. Cheerleading is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all sports in which females participate. Indirect (nontraumatic) injury is caused by systemic failure as a result of exertion while participating in a sport. Cardiovascular conditions, heat illness, exertional hyponatremia, and dehydration can cause indirect catastrophic injury. Understanding the common mechanisms of injury and prevention strategies for direct catastrophic injuries is critical in caring for athletes.

  20. An Effective Channel Allocation Scheme to Reduce Co-Channel and Adjacent Channel Interference for WMN Backhaul

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbasi, S.; Ismaili, I.A.; Khuhawar, F.Y.

    2016-01-01

    Two folded work presents channel allocation scheme sustaining channel orthogonality and channel spacing to reduce CCI (Co-Channel Interference) and ACI (Adjacent Channel Interference) for inter flow of an intra-flow link. Proposed scheme as a part of radio resource allocation is applied on infrastructure based backhaul of wireless mesh network using directional antennas. The proposed approach is applied separately on 2.4 and 5GHz bands. Interference of connectivity graph is modelled by strongly connected directed graph and greedy algorithms are used for channel allocation. We have used OPNET Modeller suite to simulate network models for this research. The proposed arrangement reduces the channel interference and increases system throughput. In this research, the influence of channel is computed in terms of network throughput and delay. (author)

  1. Environmental catastrophes under time-inconsistent preference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michielsen, T.

    2013-02-15

    I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time inconsistency as generations disagree on the relative weights on utility and catastrophe prevention. As a consequence, future generations emit too much from the current generation's perspective and a dynamic game ensues. I consider a sequence of models. When the environmental problem is related to a scarce exhaustible resource, early generations have an incentive to reduce emissions in Markov equilibrium in order to enhance the ecosystem's resilience to future emissions. When the pollutant is expected to become obsolete in the near future, early generations may however increase their emissions if this reduces future emissions. When polluting inputs are abundant and expected to remain essential, the catastrophe becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and the degree of concern for catastrophe prevention has limited or even no effect on equilibrium behaviour.

  2. Microtubule catastrophe and rescue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Melissa K; Zanic, Marija; Howard, Jonathon

    2013-02-01

    Microtubules are long cylindrical polymers composed of tubulin subunits. In cells, microtubules play an essential role in architecture and motility. For example, microtubules give shape to cells, serve as intracellular transport tracks, and act as key elements in important cellular structures such as axonemes and mitotic spindles. To accomplish these varied functions, networks of microtubules in cells are very dynamic, continuously remodeling through stochastic length fluctuations at the ends of individual microtubules. The dynamic behavior at the end of an individual microtubule is termed 'dynamic instability'. This behavior manifests itself by periods of persistent microtubule growth interrupted by occasional switching to rapid shrinkage (called microtubule 'catastrophe'), and then by switching back from shrinkage to growth (called microtubule 'rescue'). In this review, we summarize recent findings which provide new insights into the mechanisms of microtubule catastrophe and rescue, and discuss the impact of these findings in regards to the role of microtubule dynamics inside of cells. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam; Ryu, Sang Wan

    2006-01-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction

  4. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-09-15

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

  5. A scheme for reducing deceleration-phase Rayleigh-Taylor growth in inertial confinement fusion implosions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L. F.; Ye, W. H.; Wu, J. F.; Liu, Jie; Zhang, W. Y.; He, X. T.

    2016-05-01

    It is demonstrated that the growth of acceleration-phase instabilities in inertial confinement fusion implosions can be controlled, especially in the high-foot implosions [O. A. Hurricane et al., Phys. Plasmas 21, 056314 (2014)] on the National Ignition Facility. However, the excessive growth of the deceleration-phase instabilities can still destroy the hot spot ignition. A scheme is proposed to retard the deceleration-phase Rayleigh-Taylor instability growth by shock collision near the waist of the inner shell surface. Two-dimensional radiation hydrodynamic simulations confirm the improved deceleration-phase hot spot stability properties without sacrificing the fuel compression.

  6. A scheme for reducing deceleration-phase Rayleigh–Taylor growth in inertial confinement fusion implosions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, L. F., E-mail: wang-lifeng@iapcm.ac.cn; Ye, W. H.; Liu, Jie [Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, Beijing 100094 (China); HEDPS, Center for Applied Physics and Technology, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Center for Fusion Energy Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics, Beijing 100088 (China); Wu, J. F. [Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, Beijing 100094 (China); Center for Fusion Energy Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics, Beijing 100088 (China); Zhang, W. Y. [Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, Beijing 100094 (China); He, X. T. [Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, Beijing 100094 (China); HEDPS, Center for Applied Physics and Technology, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China)

    2016-05-15

    It is demonstrated that the growth of acceleration-phase instabilities in inertial confinement fusion implosions can be controlled, especially in the high-foot implosions [O. A. Hurricane et al., Phys. Plasmas 21, 056314 (2014)] on the National Ignition Facility. However, the excessive growth of the deceleration-phase instabilities can still destroy the hot spot ignition. A scheme is proposed to retard the deceleration-phase Rayleigh–Taylor instability growth by shock collision near the waist of the inner shell surface. Two-dimensional radiation hydrodynamic simulations confirm the improved deceleration-phase hot spot stability properties without sacrificing the fuel compression.

  7. Girsanov's transformation based variance reduced Monte Carlo simulation schemes for reliability estimation in nonlinear stochastic dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanjilal, Oindrila; Manohar, C. S.

    2017-07-01

    The study considers the problem of simulation based time variant reliability analysis of nonlinear randomly excited dynamical systems. Attention is focused on importance sampling strategies based on the application of Girsanov's transformation method. Controls which minimize the distance function, as in the first order reliability method (FORM), are shown to minimize a bound on the sampling variance of the estimator for the probability of failure. Two schemes based on the application of calculus of variations for selecting control signals are proposed: the first obtains the control force as the solution of a two-point nonlinear boundary value problem, and, the second explores the application of the Volterra series in characterizing the controls. The relative merits of these schemes, vis-à-vis the method based on ideas from the FORM, are discussed. Illustrative examples, involving archetypal single degree of freedom (dof) nonlinear oscillators, and a multi-degree of freedom nonlinear dynamical system, are presented. The credentials of the proposed procedures are established by comparing the solutions with pertinent results from direct Monte Carlo simulations.

  8. Janani Suraksha Yojana: the conditional cash transfer scheme to reduce maternal mortality in India - a need for reassessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Singh, Prashant Kumar

    2012-01-01

    Alongside endorsing Millennium Development Goal 5 in 2000, India launched its National Population Policy in 2000 and the National Health Policy in 2002. However, these have failed thus far to reduce the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) by the targeted 5.5% per annum. Under the banner of the National Rural Health Mission, the Government of India launched a national conditional cash transfer (CCT) scheme in 2005 called Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), aimed to encourage women to give birth in health facilities which, in turn, should reduce maternal deaths. Poor prenatal care in general, and postnatal care in particular, could be considered the causes of the high number of maternal deaths in India (the highest in the world). Undoubtedly, institutional delivery in India has increased and MMR has reduced over time as a result of socioeconomic development coupled with advancement in health care including improved women's education, awareness and availability of health services. However, in the light of its performance, we argue that the JSY scheme was not well enough designed to be considered as an effective pathway to reduce MMR. We propose that the service-based CCT is not the solution to avoid/reduce maternal deaths and that policy-makers and programme managers should reconsider the 'package' of continuum of care and maternal health services to ensure that they start from adolescence and the pre-pregnancy period, and extend to delivery, postnatal and continued maternal health care.

  9. Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hachisu, I; Sugimoto, D [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Coll. of General Education; Nakada, Y; Nomoto, K

    1978-08-01

    Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed.

  10. Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro; Nakada, Yoshikazu; Nomoto, Ken-ichi.

    1978-01-01

    Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed. (author)

  11. Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verguet, Stéphane; Riumallo-Herl, Carlos; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Menzies, Nicolas A.; Houben, Rein M. G. J.; Sumner, Tom; Lalli, Marek; White, Richard G.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Cohen, Ted; Foster, Nicola; Chatterjee, Susmita; Sweeney, Sedona; Baena, Inés Garcia; Lönnroth, Knut; Weil, Diana E.; Vassall, Anna

    2017-01-01

    The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic

  12. CATASTROPHIC EVENTS MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciumas Cristina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

  13. The critical catastrophe revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Mulatier, Clélia; Rosso, Alberto; Dumonteil, Eric; Zoia, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    The neutron population in a prototype model of nuclear reactor can be described in terms of a collection of particles confined in a box and undergoing three key random mechanisms: diffusion, reproduction due to fissions, and death due to absorption events. When the reactor is operated at the critical point, and fissions are exactly compensated by absorptions, the whole neutron population might in principle go to extinction because of the wild fluctuations induced by births and deaths. This phenomenon, which has been named critical catastrophe, is nonetheless never observed in practice: feedback mechanisms acting on the total population, such as human intervention, have a stabilizing effect. In this work, we revisit the critical catastrophe by investigating the spatial behaviour of the fluctuations in a confined geometry. When the system is free to evolve, the neutrons may display a wild patchiness (clustering). On the contrary, imposing a population control on the total population acts also against the local fluctuations, and may thus inhibit the spatial clustering. The effectiveness of population control in quenching spatial fluctuations will be shown to depend on the competition between the mixing time of the neutrons (i.e. the average time taken for a particle to explore the finite viable space) and the extinction time

  14. Paraboles et catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Thom, René

    1983-01-01

    René Thom, mathématicien français, membre de l'Académie des Sciences, s'est vu décerner en 1958 la médaille Field, équivalent du Prix Nobel en mathématiques, pour ses créations intellectuelles, la " théorie des catastrophes ", regard nouveau sur toutes les transformations qui adviennent de manière brusque, imprévisible, dramatique. Dans ces entretiens qui vont de la mathématique à l'embryologie, de la linguistique à l'anthropologie et à l'histoire, René Thom expose les grandes lignes de la théorie des catastrophes et passe en revue, avec un esprit à la fois critique et passionné, les grands thèmes scientifiques de notre époque, de la physique atomique à la biologie moléculaire, du " progrès " scientifique et technologique aux connexions complexes entre la société et la science. " Ce petit livre est une extraordinaire réussite en vulgarisation ". (Jean Largeault)

  15. Fukushinobyl, the impossible catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boceno, Laurent

    2012-01-01

    With the emergence of variety of health and environmental crisis or catastrophes (Seveso, Bhopal, Chernobyl, AIDS, contaminated blood, mad cow, influenzas), the author proposes thoughts about the fact that it seems we are not in the era of industrial societies any longer, but in that of societies of risk. He more particularly focuses on Chernobyl and Fukushima to analyse how a social framework is built up to integrate forms of institutionalisation of multifaceted vulnerability, these institutional logics becoming latent social pathologies. In this respect, he more particularly discusses the catastrophic share of nuclear. He shows how what can be considered as a risk is socialised, dissimulated by priority, and then addresses the management of consequences of Chernobyl and how it is used to address the Japanese present situation. He notably outlines a kind of collusion between the WHO and the IAEA about nuclear issues. In his respect, he recalls a statement made by the WHO saying that, from a mental health point of view, the most satisfying solution for the future of pacific uses of nuclear energy would be the emergence of a new generation who would have learned to cope with ignorance and uncertainty

  16. A management scheme for reducing pollution at air discharge facility in advance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kong, Sung Yong; Lee, Shin Chul [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    1998-12-01

    The developed countries are implementing a policy minimizing damage from environmental pollution by reducing discharge in advance as well as the aftermath of a pollutant. The typical example is to use BAT (Best Available Technology). This is to prevent environmental damage by reducing the discharge of pollutants with available technology and to secure environmental margin to enable industrial activities of future generation. Therefore, the feasibility of introducing BAT requirement system was reviewed by considering foreign examples and Korean situation. 38 refs., 8 figs., 69 tabs.

  17. Quantum catastrophe of slow light

    OpenAIRE

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2001-01-01

    Catastrophes are at the heart of many fascinating optical phenomena. The rainbow, for example, is a ray catastrophe where light rays become infinitely intense. The wave nature of light resolves the infinities of ray catastrophes while drawing delicate interference patterns such as the supernumerary arcs of the rainbow. Black holes cause wave singularities. Waves oscillate with infinitely small wave lengths at the event horizon where time stands still. The quantum nature of light avoids this h...

  18. Design and implementation of Ad-Hoc collaborative proxying scheme for reducing network energy waste

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafiullah Khan

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Network devices are equipped with low power states but they are rarely activated due to their inability of maintaining network connectivity. Recently, Network Connectivity Proxy (NCP concept has been proposed in literature as an effective mechanism to exploit full potential of low power features on network devices by impersonating their virtual presence. However, the NCP concept faces several open issues and challenges especially related to proxying of TCP connections and majority of daily used proprietary closed-source applications. This paper presents a new approach for reducing network energy waste through intelligent collaboration among daily used devices (e.g., desktop computers, laptops, tablets, smartphones, etc. It guarantees to run applications on only and only one user device that is under active use at that specific moment. To reduce energy waste and allow idle devices to sleep, our approach also takes benefit from a light-weight home gateway proxy with very basic practically realizable functionalities. The proposed system not just reduces energy waste of fixed devices but also enables mobile devices to significantly improve their battery life. Our developed software prototypes allow devices to autonomously and seamlessly collaborate with each other without requiring any configuration or user input. Further, this paper also presents the basic performance evaluation of developed prototypes in real networking environments.

  19. A Reduced Reaction Scheme for Volatile Nitrogen Conversion in Coal Combustion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars Saaby; Glarborg, Peter; Dam-Johansen, Kim

    1998-01-01

    In pulverised coal flames, the most important volatile nitrogen component forming NOx is HCN. To be able to model the nitrogen chemistry in coal flames it is necessary to have an adequate model for HCN oxidation. The present work was concerned with developing a model for HCN/NH3/NO conversion based...... that the CO/H-2 chemistry was described adequately, the reduced HCN/NH3/NO model compared very well with the detailed model over a wide range of stoichiometries. Decoupling of the HCN chemistry from the CO/H-2 chemistry resulted in over-prediction of the HCN oxidation rate under fuel rich conditions, but had...... negligible effect on the CO/H-2 chemistry. Comparison with simplified HCN models from the literature revealed significant differences, indicating that these models should be used cautiously in modelling volatile nitrogen conversion....

  20. Two-level modulation scheme to reduce latency for optical mobile fronthaul networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Jiun-Yu; Chow, Chi-Wai; Yeh, Chien-Hung; Chang, Gee-Kung

    2016-10-31

    A system using optical two-level orthogonal-frequency-division-multiplexing (OFDM) - amplitude-shift-keying (ASK) modulation is proposed and demonstrated to reduce the processing latency for the optical mobile fronthaul networks. At the proposed remote-radio-head (RRH), the high data rate OFDM signal does not need to be processed, but is directly launched into a high speed photodiode (HSPD) and subsequently emitted by an antenna. Only a low bandwidth PD is needed to recover the low data rate ASK control signal. Hence, it is simple and provides low-latency. Furthermore, transporting the proposed system over the already deployed optical-distribution-networks (ODNs) of passive-optical-networks (PONs) is also demonstrated with 256 ODN split-ratios.

  1. The rigorous stochastic matrix multiplication scheme for the calculations of reduced equilibrium density matrices of open multilevel quantum systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Xin

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the roles of the temporary and spatial structures of quantum functional noise in open multilevel quantum molecular systems attracts a lot of theoretical interests. I want to establish a rigorous and general framework for functional quantum noises from the constructive and computational perspectives, i.e., how to generate the random trajectories to reproduce the kernel and path ordering of the influence functional with effective Monte Carlo methods for arbitrary spectral densities. This construction approach aims to unify the existing stochastic models to rigorously describe the temporary and spatial structure of Gaussian quantum noises. In this paper, I review the Euclidean imaginary time influence functional and propose the stochastic matrix multiplication scheme to calculate reduced equilibrium density matrices (REDM). In addition, I review and discuss the Feynman-Vernon influence functional according to the Gaussian quadratic integral, particularly its imaginary part which is critical to the rigorous description of the quantum detailed balance. As a result, I establish the conditions under which the influence functional can be interpreted as the average of exponential functional operator over real-valued Gaussian processes for open multilevel quantum systems. I also show the difference between the local and nonlocal phonons within this framework. With the stochastic matrix multiplication scheme, I compare the normalized REDM with the Boltzmann equilibrium distribution for open multilevel quantum systems

  2. A national quality incentive scheme to reduce antibiotic overuse in hospitals: evaluation of perceptions and impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, J; Ashiru-Oredope, D; Budd, E; Howard, P; Walker, A S; Hopkins, S; Llewelyn, M J

    2018-02-28

    In 2016/2017, a financially linked antibiotic prescribing quality improvement initiative Commissioning for Quality and Innovation (AMR-CQUIN) was introduced across acute hospitals in England. This aimed for >1% reductions in DDDs/1000 admissions of total antibiotics, piperacillin/tazobactam and carbapenems compared with 2013/2014 and improved review of empirical antibiotic prescriptions. To assess perceptions of staff leading antimicrobial stewardship activity regarding the AMR-CQUIN, the investments made by hospitals to achieve it and how these related to achieving reductions in antibiotic use. We invited antimicrobial stewardship leads at acute hospitals across England to complete a web-based survey. Antibiotic prescribing data were downloaded from the PHE Antimicrobial Resistance Local Indicators resource. Responses were received from 116/155 (75%) acute hospitals. Owing to yearly increases in antibiotic use, most trusts needed to make >5% reductions in antibiotic consumption to achieve the AMR-CQUIN goal of 1% reduction. Additional funding was made available at 23/113 (20%) trusts and, in 18 (78%), this was trend for increased antibiotic use reversed in 2016/2017. In 2014/2015, year-on-year changes were +3.7% (IQR -0.8%, +8.4%), +9.4% (+0.2%, +19.5%) and +5.8% (-6.2%, +18.2%) for total antibiotics, piperacillin/tazobactam and carbapenems, respectively, and +0.1% (-5.4%, +4.0%), -4.8% (-16.9%, +3.2%) and -8.0% (-20.2%, +4.0%) in 2016/2017. Hospitals where staff believed they could reduce antibiotic use were more likely to do so (P < 0.001). Introducing the AMR-CQUIN was associated with a reduction in antibiotic use. For individual hospitals, achieving the AMR-CQUIN was associated with favourable perceptions of staff and not availability of funding.

  3. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  4. Catastrophic antiphospholipid Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medina Velasquez, Yimy; Felix Restrepo Suarez, Jose; Iglesias Gamarra, Antonio

    2001-01-01

    The antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by venous, arterial thrombosis and miscarriages along with lupic anticoagulant and antibodies against anticardiolipin. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) has been described since 1992 like a multiple organic dysfunction caused by multiple vascular thrombosis in three or more organs. The patients who suffer from this syndrome may have or not history of APS. There are two or three mechanisms that may cause the CAPS, alone or in combination: These are: 1. The multisystemic thrombotic disease with emphasis in microvasculature occlusion of the organs and occlusion of big arterial or veins 2. The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) superimpose in 15% to 50% of the patients that, of course, conducted to an occlusive disease of arterioles, veins or capillaries. 3. A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) induced by citoquines. In this review it is described clinical and laboratory features, pathogenesis and treatment of CAPS. For this purpose, it was searched for Medline from 1993 to 2000 and revised the most significant issues obtained by this medium

  5. Direct model-based predictive control scheme without cost function for voltage source inverters with reduced common-mode voltage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jae-Chang; Moon, Sung-Ki; Kwak, Sangshin

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents a direct model-based predictive control scheme for voltage source inverters (VSIs) with reduced common-mode voltages (CMVs). The developed method directly finds optimal vectors without using repetitive calculation of a cost function. To adjust output currents with the CMVs in the range of -Vdc/6 to +Vdc/6, the developed method uses voltage vectors, as finite control resources, excluding zero voltage vectors which produce the CMVs in the VSI within ±Vdc/2. In a model-based predictive control (MPC), not using zero voltage vectors increases the output current ripples and the current errors. To alleviate these problems, the developed method uses two non-zero voltage vectors in one sampling step. In addition, the voltage vectors scheduled to be used are directly selected at every sampling step once the developed method calculates the future reference voltage vector, saving the efforts of repeatedly calculating the cost function. And the two non-zero voltage vectors are optimally allocated to make the output current approach the reference current as close as possible. Thus, low CMV, rapid current-following capability and sufficient output current ripple performance are attained by the developed method. The results of a simulation and an experiment verify the effectiveness of the developed method.

  6. Energy catastrophes and energy consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, G.

    1991-01-01

    The possibility of energy catastrophes in the production of energy serves to make estimation of the true social costs of energy production difficult. As a result, there is a distinct possibility that the private marginal cost curve of energy producers lies to the left or right of the true cost curve. If so, social welfare will not be maximized, and underconsumption or overconsumption of fuels will exist. The occurrence of energy catastrophes and observance of the market reaction to these occurrences indicates that overconsumption of energy has been the case in the past. Postulations as to market reactions to further energy catastrophes lead to the presumption that energy consumption levels remain above those that are socially optimal

  7. Does the national health insurance scheme in Ghana reduce household cost of treating malaria in the Kassena-Nankana districts?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxwell Ayindenaba Dalaba

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Government of Ghana introduced the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS in 2003 to replace out-of-pocket (OOP payment for health services with the inherent aim of reducing the direct cost of treating illness to households. Objective: To assess the effects of the NHIS in reducing cost of treating malaria to households in the Kassena-Nankana districts of northern Ghana. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey between October 2009 and October 2011 in the Kassena-Nankana districts. A sample of 4,226 households was randomly drawn from the Navrongo Health and Demographic Surveillance System household database and administered a structured interview. The costs of malaria treatment were collected from the patient perspective. Results: Of the 4,226 households visited, a total of 1,324 (31% household members reported fever and 51% (675 reported treatment for malaria and provided information on where they sought care. Most respondents sought malaria treatment from formal health facilities 63% (424, with the remainder either self-medicating with drugs from chemical shops 32% (217 or with leftover drugs or herbs 5% (34. Most of those who sought care from formal health facilities were insured 79% (334. The average direct medical cost of treating malaria was GH¢3.2 (US$2.1 per case with the insured spending less (GH¢2.6/US$1.7 per case than the uninsured (GH¢3.2/US$2.1. The overall average cost (direct and indirect incurred by households per malaria treatment was GH¢20.9 (US$13.9. Though the insured accounted for a larger proportion of admissions at health facilities 76% (31 than the uninsured 24% (10, the average amount households spent on the insured was less (GH¢4/US$2.7 than their uninsured counterparts (GH¢6.4/US$4.3. The difference was not statistically significant (p=0.2330. Conclusion: Even though some insured individuals made OOP payments for direct medical care, there is evidence that the NHIS has a protective effect

  8. Does the Broad Categories for the Diagnosis of Eating Disorders (BCD-ED) Scheme Reduce the Frequency of Eating Disorder not Otherwise Specified?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sysko, Robyn; Walsh, B. Timothy

    2010-01-01

    Objective This study evaluated whether the Broad Categories for the Diagnosis of Eating Disorders (BCD-ED) proposal (Walsh & Sysko, 2009) reduces the number of individuals who receive a DSM-IV eating disorder not otherwise specified (EDNOS) diagnosis. Method Individuals calling a tertiary care facility completed a brief telephone interview and were classified into a DSM-IV eating disorder category (anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, EDNOS). Subsequently, the proposed DSM-5 criteria for eating disorders and the BCD-ED scheme were also applied. Results A total of 247 individuals with telephone interview data met criteria for an eating disorder, including 97 (39.3%) with an EDNOS. Of patients with an EDNOS diagnosis, 97.6% were re-classified using the BCD-ED scheme. Discussion The BCD-ED scheme has the potential to virtually eliminate the use of DSM-IV EDNOS; however, additional data are needed to document its validity and clinical utility. PMID:21997426

  9. Strategic reasoning and bargaining in catastrophic climate change games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verendel, Vilhelm; Johansson, Daniel J. A.; Lindgren, Kristian

    2016-03-01

    Two decades of international negotiations show that agreeing on emission levels for climate change mitigation is a hard challenge. However, if early warning signals were to show an upcoming tipping point with catastrophic damage, theory and experiments suggest this could simplify collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the actual threshold, no country would have a free-ride incentive to increase emissions over the tipping point, but it remains for countries to negotiate their emission levels to reach these agreements. We model agents bargaining for emission levels using strategic reasoning to predict emission bids by others and ask how this affects the possibility of reaching agreements that avoid catastrophic damage. It is known that policy elites often use a higher degree of strategic reasoning, and in our model this increases the risk for climate catastrophe. Moreover, some forms of higher strategic reasoning make agreements to reduce greenhouse gases unstable. We use empirically informed levels of strategic reasoning when simulating the model.

  10. A Prediction Packetizing Scheme for Reducing Channel Traffic in Transaction-Level Hardware/Software Co-Emulation

    OpenAIRE

    Lee , Jae-Gon; Chung , Moo-Kyoung; Ahn , Ki-Yong; Lee , Sang-Heon; Kyung , Chong-Min

    2005-01-01

    Submitted on behalf of EDAA (http://www.edaa.com/); International audience; This paper presents a scheme for efficient channel usage between simulator and accelerator where the accelerator models some RTL sub-blocks in the accelerator-based hardware/software co-simulation while the simulator runs transaction-level model of the remaining part of the whole chip being verified. With conventional simulation accelerator, evaluations of simulator and accelerator alternate at every valid simulation ...

  11. Reactor accidents and nuclear catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchhoff, R.; Linde, H.J.

    1979-01-01

    Assuming some preliminary knowledge of the fundamentals of atomic physics, the book describes the effects of ionizing radiation on the human organism. In order to assess the potential hazards of reactor accidents and the extent of a nuclear catastrophe, the technology of power generation in nuclear power stations is presented together with its potential dangers as well as the physical and medical processes occurring during a nuclear weapons explosion. The special medical aspects are presented which range from first aid in the case of a catastrophe to the accute radiation syndrome, the treatment of burns to the therapy of late radiolesions. Finally, it is confirmed that the treatment of radiation injured persons does not give rise to basically new medical problems. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Catastrophic events and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloyd, Elizabeth; Dyer, Carmel B

    2010-12-01

    The plight of older adults during catastrophic events is a societal concern. Older persons have an increased prevalence of cognitive disorders, chronic illnesses, and mobility problems that limit their ability to cope. These disorders may result in a lack of mental capacity and the ability to discern when they should evacuate or resolve problems encountered during a catastrophe. Some older persons may have limited transportation options, and many of the elderly survivors are at increased risk for abuse, neglect, and exploitation. Recommendations for future catastrophic events include the development of a federal tracking system for elders and other vulnerable adults, the designation of separate shelter areas for elders and other vulnerable adults, and involvement of gerontological professionals in all aspects of emergency preparedness and care delivery, including training of frontline workers. Preparation through preevent planning that includes region-specific social services, medical and public health resources, volunteers, and facilities for elders and vulnerable adults is critical. Elders need to be protected from abuse and fraud during catastrophic events. A public health triage system for elders and other vulnerable populations in pre- and postdisaster situations is useful, and disaster preparedness is paramount. Communities and members of safety and rescue teams must address ethical issues before an event. When older adults are involved, consideration needs to be given to triage decision making, transporting those who are immobile, the care of older adults who receive palliative care, and the equitable distribution of resources. Nurses are perfectly equipped with the skills, knowledge, and training needed to plan and implement disaster preparedness programs. In keeping with the tradition of Florence Nightingale, nurses can assume several crucial roles in disaster preparedness for older adults. Nurses possess the ability to participate and lead community

  13. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  14. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles D Brummitt

    Full Text Available We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe, causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  15. Girsanov's transformation based variance reduced Monte Carlo simulation schemes for reliability estimation in nonlinear stochastic dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanjilal, Oindrila, E-mail: oindrila@civil.iisc.ernet.in; Manohar, C.S., E-mail: manohar@civil.iisc.ernet.in

    2017-07-15

    The study considers the problem of simulation based time variant reliability analysis of nonlinear randomly excited dynamical systems. Attention is focused on importance sampling strategies based on the application of Girsanov's transformation method. Controls which minimize the distance function, as in the first order reliability method (FORM), are shown to minimize a bound on the sampling variance of the estimator for the probability of failure. Two schemes based on the application of calculus of variations for selecting control signals are proposed: the first obtains the control force as the solution of a two-point nonlinear boundary value problem, and, the second explores the application of the Volterra series in characterizing the controls. The relative merits of these schemes, vis-à-vis the method based on ideas from the FORM, are discussed. Illustrative examples, involving archetypal single degree of freedom (dof) nonlinear oscillators, and a multi-degree of freedom nonlinear dynamical system, are presented. The credentials of the proposed procedures are established by comparing the solutions with pertinent results from direct Monte Carlo simulations. - Highlights: • The distance minimizing control forces minimize a bound on the sampling variance. • Establishing Girsanov controls via solution of a two-point boundary value problem. • Girsanov controls via Volterra's series representation for the transfer functions.

  16. Catastrophizing Interferes with Cognitive Modulation of Pain in Women with Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellingson, Laura D; Stegner, Aaron J; Schwabacher, Isaac J; Lindheimer, Jacob B; Cook, Dane B

    2018-02-21

    Pain modulation is a critical function of the nociceptive system that includes the ability to engage descending pain control systems to maintain a functional balance between facilitation and inhibition of incoming sensory stimuli. Dysfunctional pain modulation is associated with increased risk for chronic pain and is characteristic of fibromyalgia (FM). Catastrophizing is also common in FM. However, its influence on pain modulation is poorly understood. To determine the role of catastrophizing on central nervous system processing during pain modulation in FM via examining brain responses and pain sensitivity during an attention-distraction paradigm. Twenty FM patients and 18 healthy controls (CO) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while receiving pain stimuli, administered alone and during distracting cognitive tasks. Pain ratings were assessed after each stimulus. Catastrophizing was assessed with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). The ability to modulate pain during distraction varied among FM patients and was associated with catastrophizing. This was demonstrated by significant positive relationships between PCS scores and pain ratings (P modulation did not differ between FM and CO (P > 0.05). FM patients with higher levels of catastrophizing were less able to distract themselves from pain, indicative of catastrophizing-related impairments in pain modulation. These results suggest that the tendency to catastrophize interacts with attention-resource allocation and may represent a mechanism of chronic pain exacerbation and/or maintenance. Reducing catastrophizing may improve FM symptoms via improving central nervous system regulation of pain.

  17. The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

    2013-01-01

    Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

  18. A catastrophe in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ignatovich, V.K.

    2004-01-01

    The standard scattering theory (SST) in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) is analyzed. Self-contradictions of SST are deconstructed. A direct way to calculate scattering probability without introduction of a finite volume is discussed. Substantiation of SST in textbooks with the help of wave packets is shown to be incomplete. A complete theory of wave packet scattering on a fixed center is presented, and its similarity to the plane wave scattering is demonstrated. The neutron scattering on a monatomic gas is investigated, and several problems are pointed out. A catastrophic ambiguity of the cross section is revealed, and a way to resolve this ambiguity is discussed

  19. Factors affecting catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses in China: policy implications of universal health insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Wu, Qunhong; Xu, Ling; Legge, David; Hao, Yanhua; Gao, Lijun; Ning, Ning; Wan, Gang

    2012-09-01

    To assess the degree to which the Chinese people are protected from catastrophic household expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses and to explore the health system and structural factors influencing the first of these outcomes. Data were derived from the Fourth National Health Service Survey. An analysis of catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses was undertaken with a sample of 55 556 households of different characteristics and located in rural and urban settings in different parts of the country. Logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. The rate of catastrophic health expenditure was 13.0%; that of impoverishment was 7.5%. Rates of catastrophic health expenditure were higher among households having members who were hospitalized, elderly, or chronically ill, as well as in households in rural or poorer regions. A combination of adverse factors increased the risk of catastrophic health expenditure. Families enrolled in the urban employee or resident insurance schemes had lower rates of catastrophic health expenditure than those enrolled in the new rural corporative scheme. The need for and use of health care, demographics, type of benefit package and type of provider payment method were the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. Although China has greatly expanded health insurance coverage, financial protection remains insufficient. Policy-makers should focus on designing improved insurance plans by expanding the benefit package, redesigning cost sharing arrangements and provider payment methods and developing more effective expenditure control strategies.

  20. Oxidized zirconium on ceramic; Catastrophic coupling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozden, V E; Saglam, N; Dikmen, G; Tozun, I R

    2017-02-01

    Oxidized zirconium (Oxinium™; Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) articulated with polyethylene in total hip arthroplasty (THA) appeared to have the potential to reduce wear dramatically. The thermally oxidized metal zirconium surface is transformed into ceramic-like hard surface that is resistant to abrasion. The exposure of soft zirconium metal under hard coverage surface after the damage of oxidized zirconium femoral head has been described. It occurred following joint dislocation or in situ succeeding disengagement of polyethylene liner. We reported three cases of misuse of Oxinium™ (Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) heads. These three cases resulted in catastrophic in situ wear and inevitable failure although there was no advice, indication or recommendation for this use from the manufacturer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  1. Metal Dusting: Catastrophic Corrosion by Carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, David J.; Zhang, Jianqiang

    2012-12-01

    Reducing gases rich in carbon-bearing species such as CO can be supersaturated with respect to graphite at intermediate temperatures of about 400-700°C. Engineering alloys such as low-alloy and stainless steels, and heat-resisting iron-, nickel-, and cobalt-base alloys catalyze gas processes that release the carbon. An understanding of how the resulting carbon deposition can destroy alloys at a catastrophically rapid rate has been the objective of a great deal of research. The current review of recent work on metal dusting covers the mass transfer—principally carbon diffusion—and graphite nucleation processes involved. A clear distinction emerges between ferritic alloys, which form cementite and precipitate graphite within that carbide, and austenitics that nucleate graphite directly within the metal. The latter process is facilitated by the strong orientation relationship between the graphite and face-centered cubic (fcc) lattices. Strategies for the control of dusting are briefly outlined.

  2. How are the catastrophical risks quantifiable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    For the assessment and evaluation of industrial risks the question must be asked how are the catastrophical risks quantifiable. Typical real catastrophical risks and risk assessment based on modelling assumptions have been placed against each other in order to put the risks into proper perspective. However, the society is risk averse when there is a catastrophic potential of severe accidents in a large scale industrial facility even though there is extremely low probability of occurence. (orig.) [de

  3. Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2002-01-01

    In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light

  4. Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2002-04-01

    In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

  5. Theory of a Slow-Light Catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2001-01-01

    In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. The paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, arXiv:physics/0111058, Nature (in press)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

  6. Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according ...... to the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

  7. Does the broad categories for the diagnosis of eating disorders (BCD-ED) scheme reduce the frequency of eating disorder not otherwise specified?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sysko, Robyn; Walsh, B Timothy

    2011-11-01

    This study evaluated whether the Broad Categories for the Diagnosis of Eating Disorders (BCD-ED) proposal (Walsh and Sysko, Int J Eat Disord, 42, 754-764, 2009) reduces the number of individuals who receive a DSM-IV eating disorder not otherwise specified (EDNOS) diagnosis. Individuals calling a tertiary care facility completed a brief telephone interview and were classified into a DSM-IV eating disorder category (anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, EDNOS). Subsequently, the proposed DSM-5 criteria for eating disorders and the BCD-ED scheme were also applied. A total of 247 individuals with telephone interview data met criteria for an eating disorder, including 97 (39.3%) with an EDNOS. Of patients with an EDNOS diagnosis, 97.6% were reclassified using the BCD-ED scheme. The BCD-ED scheme has the potential to virtually eliminate the use of DSM-IV EDNOS; however, additional data are needed to document its validity and clinical utility. Copyright © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. CATASTROPHIC DISRUPTION OF COMET ISON

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Milam, Stefanie N.; Charnley, Steven B. [Astrochemistry Laboratory, NASA GSFC, MS 690, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Coulson, Iain M. [Joint Astronomy Center, 660 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Sekanina, Zdenek [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Kracht, Rainer, E-mail: keane@ifa.hawaii.edu [Ostlandring 53, D-25335 Elmshorn, Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)

    2016-11-10

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 μ m dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31–0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 ( r {sub h} = 0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60″ (>10{sup 5} km) in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 μ m image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing ∼5.2 × 10{sup 10} kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  9. Catastrophe Finance: An Emerging Discipline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsner, James B.; Burch, R. King; Jagger, Thomas H.

    2009-08-01

    While the recent disasters in the world's financial markets demonstrate that finance theory remains far from perfected, science also faces steep challenges in the quest to predict and manage the effects of natural disasters. Worldwide, as many as half a million people have died in disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and tropical cyclones since the turn of the 21st century [Wirtz, 2008]. Further, natural disasters can lead to extreme financial losses, and independent financial collapses can be exacerbated by natural disasters. In financial cost, 2008 was the second most expensive year on record for such catastrophes and for financial market declines. These extreme events in the natural and financial realms push the issue of risk management to the fore, expose the deficiencies of existing knowledge and practice, and suggest that progress requires further research and training at the graduate level.

  10. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  11. Catastrophic Disruption of Comet ISON

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Milam, Stefanie N.; Coulson, Iain M.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Sekanina, Zdenek; Kracht, Rainer; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J.; Charnley, Steven B.

    2016-01-01

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 microns dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31-0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 (rh?=?0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60? (greater than 10(exp 5) km in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 microns image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing approximately 5.2?×?10(exp 10) kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  12. Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerell, P. E.

    1998-01-01

    Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO 2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO 2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO 2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO 2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO 2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO 2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

  13. Does a local financial incentive scheme reduce inequalities in the delivery of clinical care in a socially deprived community? A longitudinal data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glidewell, Liz; West, Robert; Hackett, Julia E C; Carder, Paul; Doran, Tim; Foy, Robbie

    2015-05-14

    osteoporosis risk). For one indicator the deprivation-achievement gap reduced over time (repeat prednisolone prescription (OR 1.01; 1.01,1.01). Larger practices and those serving more affluent areas earned more income per patient than smaller practices and those serving more deprived areas (t = -3.99; p =0.0001). Any gaps in achievement between practices were modest but mostly sustained or widened over the duration of the scheme. Given that financial rewards may not reflect the amount of work undertaken by practices serving more deprived patients, future pay-for-performance schemes also need to address fairness of rewards in relation to workload.

  14. Determinants of catastrophic health expenditure in iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abolhallaje, M; Hasani, Sa; Bastani, P; Ramezanian, M; Kazemian, M

    2013-01-01

    This study will provide detailed specification of those variables and determinants of unpredictable health expenditure in Iran, and the requirements to reduce extensive effects of the factors affecting households' payments for health and other goods and services inappropriately. This study aims to identify measures of fair financing of health services and determinants of fair financing contribution, regarding the required share of households that prevents their catastrophic payments. In this regard, analysis of shares of households' expenditures on main groups of goods and services in urban and rural areas and in groups of deciles in the statistics from households' expenditure surveys was applied. The growth of spending in nominal values within the years 2002-2008 was considerably high and the rate for out-of-pocket payments is nearly the same or greater than the rate for total health expenditure. In 2008, urban and rural households in average pay 6.4% and 6.35% of their total expenditure on health services. Finally three categories of determinants of unfair and catastrophic payments by households were recognized in terms of households' socio-economic status, equality/inequality conditions of the distribution of risk of financing, and economic aspects of health expenditure distribution. While extending the total share of government and prepayment sources of financing health services are considered as the simplest policy for limiting out-of-pocket payments, indicators and policies introduced in this study could also be considered important and useful for the development of health sector and easing access to health services, irrespective of health financing fairness.

  15. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth D. Baum

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

  16. Catastrophe theory with application in nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valeca, Serban Constantin

    2002-01-01

    The monograph is structured on the following seven chapters: 1. Correlation of risk, catastrophe and chaos at the level of polyfunctional systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 Approaching the risk at the level of power systems; 1.2 Modelling the chaos-catastrophe-risk correlation in the structure of integrated classical and nuclear processes; 2. Catastrophe theory applied in ecosystems models and applications; 2.1 Posing the problems in catastrophe theory; 2.2 Application of catastrophe theory in the engineering of the power ecosystems with nuclear injection; 4.. Decision of abatement of the catastrophic risk based on minimal costs; 4.1 The nuclear power systems sensitive to risk-catastrophe-chaos in the structure of minimal costs; 4.2 Evaluating the market structure on the basis of power minimal costs; 4.3 Decisions in power systems built on minimal costs; 5. Models of computing the minimal costs in classical and nuclear power systems; 5.1 Calculation methodologies of power minimal cost; 5.2 Calculation methods of minimal costs in nuclear power sector; 6. Expert and neuro expert systems for supervising the risk-catastrophe-chaos correlation; 6.1 The structure of expert systems; 6.2 Application of the neuro expert program; 7. Conclusions and operational proposals; 7.1 A synthesis of the problems presented in this work; 7.2 Highlighting the novel aspects applicable in the power systems with nuclear injection

  17. Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martel, M O; Olesen, A E; Jørgensen, D

    2016-01-01

    that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses...

  18. Catastrophizing and perceived injustice: risk factors for the transition to chronicity after whiplash injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Michael J L; Adams, Heather; Martel, Marc-Olivier; Scott, Whitney; Wideman, Timothy

    2011-12-01

    The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. This article focuses on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. Research has shown that psychological variables play a role in determining the trajectory of recovery after whiplash injury. This article will focus on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. Several investigations have shown that measures of catastrophizing and perceived injustice prospectively predict problematic trajectories of recovery after whiplash injury. Basic research points to the potential roles of expectancies, attention, coping and endogenous opioid dysregulation as possible avenues through which catastrophizing might heighten the probability of the persistence of pain after whiplash injury. Although research has yet to systematically address the mechanisms by which perceived injustice might contribute to prolonged disability in individuals with whiplash injuries, there are grounds for suggesting the potential contributions of catastrophizing, pain behavior and anger. A challenge for future research will be the development and evaluation of risk factor-targeted interventions aimed at reducing catastrophizing and perceived injustice to improve recovery trajectories after whiplash injury.

  19. The behaviour of the lande factor and effective exchange parameter in a group of Pr intermetallics observed through reduced level scheme models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranke, P.J. von; Caldas, A.; Palermo, L.

    1993-01-01

    The present work constitutes a portion of a continuing series of studies dealing with models, in which we retain only the two lowest levels of the crystal field splitting scheme of rare-earth ion in rare-earth intermetallics. In these reduced level scheme models, the crystal field and the magnetic Hamiltonians are represented in matrix notation. These two matrices constitute the model Hamiltonian proposed in this paper, from which we derive the magnetic state equations of interest for this work. Putting into these equations a group of adequate experimental data found in the literature for a particular rare-earth intermetallic we obtain the Lande factor and effective exchange parameter related to this rare-earth intermetallic. This study will be applied to a group of Pr intermetallics, in cubic symmetry, in which the ground level may be a non-magnetic singlet level or a non-magnetic doublet level. In both cases, the first excited level is a triplet one. (orig.)

  20. Treatment of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazzaz, Nayef M.; McCune, W. Joseph; Knight, Jason S.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose of review Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a severe manifestation of APS. While affecting only 1% of patients with APS, the condition is frequently fatal if not recognized and treated early. Here, we will review the current approach to diagnosis and treatment of CAPS. Recent findings Data from the international “CAPS registry,” spearheaded by the European Forum on Antiphospholipid Antibodies, have improved our understanding of at-risk patients, typical clinical features, and associated/precipitating diagnoses. Current guidelines also continue to support a role for anticoagulants and glucocorticoids as foundation therapy in all patients. Finally, new basic science and case series suggest that novel therapies, such as rituximab and eculizumab warrant further study. Summary Attention to associated diagnoses such as infection and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are critical at the time of diagnosis. All patients should be treated with anticoagulation, corticosteroids, and possibly plasma exchange. In patients with SLE, cyclophosphamide should also be considered. In refractory or relapsing cases, new therapies such as rituximab and possibly eculizumab may be options, but need further study. PMID:26927441

  1. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, H. A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  2. From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darnall BD

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

  3. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  4. Pricing catastrophic bonds for earthquakes in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Cabrera, Brenda López

    2006-01-01

    After the occurrence of a natural disaster, the reconstruction can be financed with catastrophic bonds (CAT bonds) or reinsurance. For insurers, reinsurers and other corporations CAT bonds provide multi year protection without the credit risk present in reinsurance. For investors CAT bonds offer attractive returns and reduction of portfolio risk, since CAT bonds defaults are uncorrelated with defaults of other securities. As the study of natural catastrophe models plays an important role in t...

  5. Catastrophizing and Depressive Symptoms as Prospective Predictors of Outcomes Following Total Knee Replacement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert R Edwards

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Several recent reports suggest that pain-related catastrophizing is a risk factor for poor acute pain outcomes following surgical interventions. However, it has been less clear whether levels of catastrophizing influence longer-term postoperative outcomes. Data were analyzed from a relatively small number (n=43 of patients who underwent total knee replacement and were followed for 12 months after their surgery. Previous research has suggested that high levels of both catastrophizing and depression are associated with elevated acute postoperative pain complaints among patients undergoing knee surgery. In this sample, catastrophizing and depression at each of the assessment points were studied as prospective predictors of pain (both global pain ratings and pain at night at the subsequent assessment point over the course of one year. The predictive patterns differed somewhat across measures of pain reporting; depressive symptoms were unique predictors of greater global pain complaints, while catastrophizing was a specific and unique predictor of elevated nighttime pain. While surgical outcomes following total knee replacement are, on average, quite good, a significant minority of patients continue to experience long-term pain. The present findings suggest that high levels of catastrophizing and depression may promote enhanced pain levels, indicating that interventions designed to reduce catastrophizing and depressive symptoms may have the potential to further improve joint replacement outcomes.

  6. Catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal: a cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Eiko; Gilmour, Stuart; Rahman, Md Mizanur; Gautam, Ghan Shyam; Shrestha, Pradeep Krishna; Shibuya, Kenji

    2014-10-01

    To determine the incidence of - and illnesses commonly associated with - catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal. We did a cross-sectional population-based survey in five municipalities of Kathmandu Valley between November 2011 and January 2012. For each household surveyed, out-of-pocket spending on health in the previous 30 days that exceeded 10% of the household's total expenditure over the same period was considered to be catastrophic. We estimated the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure. We identified the illnesses most commonly associated with such expenditure using a Poisson regression model and assessed the distribution of expenditure by economic quintile of households using the concentration index. Overall, 284 of the 1997 households studied in Kathmandu, i.e. 13.8% after adjustment by sampling weight, reported catastrophic health expenditure in the 30 days before the survey. After adjusting for confounders, this expenditure was found to be associated with injuries, particularly those resulting from road traffic accidents. Catastrophic expenditure by households in the poorest quintile were associated with at least one episode of diabetes, asthma or heart disease. In an urban area of Nepal, catastrophic household expenditure on health was mostly associated with injuries and noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes and asthma. Throughout Nepal, interventions for the control and management of noncommunicable diseases and the prevention of road traffic accidents should be promoted. A phased introduction of health insurance should also reduce the incidence of catastrophic household expenditure.

  7. PARAMETRIC INSURANCE COVER FOR NATURAL CATASTROPHE RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serghei Margulescu

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available With economic losses of over USD 370 bn caused by 325 catastrophic events, 2011 ranks as the worst ever year in terms of costs to society due to natural catastrophes and man-made disasters. Inthe same time, 2011 is the second most expensive year in the history for the insurance industry, with insured losses from catastrophic events amounting to USD 116 bn. Both the high level of damages and insured losses, as well as the unprecedented gap between the two values, made insurers and reinsurers worldwide to understand that some risks had so far been underestimated and they have to be better integrated in the catastrophes modelling.On the other hand, governments have to protect themselves against the financial impact of natural catastrophes and new forms of cooperation between the public and private sectors can help countries finance disaster risks. Viewed in a country’s wider risk management context, the purchase of parametric insurance cover, which transfers natural catastrophe risk to the private sector using an index- based trigger, is a necessary shift towards a pre-emptive risk management strategy. This kind of approach can be pursued by central governments or at the level of provincial or municipal governments, and a number of case studies included in the publication “Closing the financial gap” by Swiss Re (2011 illustrates how new forms of parametric insurance can help countries finance disaster risks.

  8. Efficient prevention and compensation of catastrophic risks. The example of damage by nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanden Borre, T.

    2001-01-01

    This book deals with the liability for damage due to catastrophic risks. The nuclear liability law serves as an example of such a catastrophic risk. The question that we tried to answer is what an efficient compensation scheme for catastrophic risks should look like. This question is dealt with both from a law and an economic point of view and from a comparative point of view. The main element in comparing the laws in different countries is the comparison between Belgian and Dutch civil (nuclear) liability law. But also American nuclear liability law is part of the analysis (the Price-Anderson Act). The book consists of four parts: (nuclear) civil liability law, legal and economic approach, analysis of other compensation systems and conclusions. The big themes in this book are therefore civil (nuclear) liability law, insurance law and environmental liability law [nl

  9. Creating catastrophes in the classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Thommy

    2013-04-01

    Buildings, infrastructure and human life are being destroyed by wind and landslides. To interest and motivate pupils and to help them understand abstract knowledge, a practical experiment could be useful. These experiments will show why strong winds circulate around tropical cyclones and how fluvial geological processes affect nature and communities. The experiments are easy to set up and the equipment is not expensive. Experiment 1: Exogenic processes of water are often slow processes. This experiment will simulate water processes that can take thousands of years, in less than 40 minutes. This experiment can be presented for and understood by pupils at all levels. Letting the pupils build up the scenery will make them more curious about the course of events. During that time they will see the geomorphological genesis of landforms such as landslides, sandurs, deltas, canyons sedimentations, selective erosions. Placing small houses, bridges etc. we can lead to discussions about natural catastrophes and community planning. Material needed for the experiment is a water bucket, erosion gutter, clay (simulating rock), sand and smaller pebbles (simulating the soil), houses of "Monopoly" size and tubes. By using a table with wheels it is easy to reuse the result for other lessons. Installation of a pump can make the experiment into a closed loop system. This installation can be used for presentations outside the classroom. Experiment 2: The Coriolis Effect explains why the wind (moving objects) deflects when moving. In the northern hemisphere the deflection is clockwise and anti-clockwise in the southern hemisphere. This abstract effect is often hard for upper secondary pupils to understand. This experiment will show the effect and thus make the theory real and visible. Material needed for this experiment is a bucket, pipes, a string. At my school we had cooperation with pupils from the Industrial Technology programme who made a copper pipe construction. During the

  10. Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) on Brain Connectivity Supporting Catastrophizing in Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazaridou, Asimina; Kim, Jieun; Cahalan, Christine M; Loggia, Marco L; Franceschelli, Olivia; Berna, Chantal; Schur, Peter; Napadow, Vitaly; Edwards, Robert R

    2017-03-01

    Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, common pain disorder characterized by hyperalgesia. A key mechanism by which cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) fosters improvement in pain outcomes is via reductions in hyperalgesia and pain-related catastrophizing, a dysfunctional set of cognitive-emotional processes. However, the neural underpinnings of these CBT effects are unclear. Our aim was to assess CBT's effects on the brain circuitry underlying hyperalgesia in FM patients, and to explore the role of treatment-associated reduction in catastrophizing as a contributor to normalization of pain-relevant brain circuitry and clinical improvement. In total, 16 high-catastrophizing FM patients were enrolled in the study and randomized to 4 weeks of individual treatment with either CBT or a Fibromyalgia Education (control) condition. Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scans evaluated functional connectivity between key pain-processing brain regions at baseline and posttreatment. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline, posttreatment, and 6-month follow-up. Catastrophizing correlated with increased resting state functional connectivity between S1 and anterior insula. The CBT group showed larger reductions (compared with the education group) in catastrophizing at posttreatment (PCBT produced significant reductions in both pain and catastrophizing at the 6-month follow-up (PCBT group also showed reduced resting state connectivity between S1 and anterior/medial insula at posttreatment; these reductions in resting state connectivity were associated with concurrent treatment-related reductions in catastrophizing. The results add to the growing support for the clinically important associations between S1-insula connectivity, clinical pain, and catastrophizing, and suggest that CBT may, in part via reductions in catastrophizing, help to normalize pain-related brain responses in FM.

  11. Non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in racing Thoroughbreds at the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, T C; Riggs, C M; Cogger, N; Wright, J; Al-Alawneh, J I

    2018-04-19

    Reports of fractures in racehorses have predominantly focused on catastrophic injuries, and there is limited data identifying the location and incidence of fractures that did not result in a fatal outcome. To describe the nature and the incidence of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) over seven racing seasons. Retrospective cohort study. Data of fractures sustained in horses while racing and of race characteristics were extracted from the HKJC Veterinary Management Information System (VMIS) and Racing Information System (RIS) respectively. The fracture event was determined from the first clinical entry for each specific injury. The incidence rates of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures were calculated per 1000 racing starts for racetrack, age, racing season, sex and trainer. 179 first fracture events occurred in 64,807 racing starts. The incidence rate of non-catastrophic fractures was 2.2 per 1000 racing starts and of catastrophic fractures was 0.6 per 1000 racing starts. Fractures of the proximal sesamoid bones represented 55% of all catastrophic fractures while the most common non-catastrophic fractures involved the carpus and the first phalanx. Significant associations were detected between the incidence of non-catastrophic fractures and sex, trainer and racing season. The first fracture event was used to calculate the incidence rate in this study and may have resulted in underestimation of the true incidence rate of fractures in this population. However, given the low number of recorded fracture events compared to the size of the study population, this underestimation is likely to be small. There were 3.6 times as many non-catastrophic fractures as catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong between 2004 and 2011. Non-catastrophic fractures interfere with race training schedules and may predispose to catastrophic fracture. Future analytical studies on non-catastrophic

  12. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2016-07-10

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  13. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-01-01

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  14. Severe catastrophes and public reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmachkin, Vitaly

    2002-01-01

    nuclear opposition. Economical basis of nuclear energy stagnation is in not very successful competition of nuclear engineering with fossil energy production technologies. Much money has been spent for improvement of safety of NPPs. Social roots of the opposition are linked with a bad experience of the public with demonstration of the nuclear energy- The explosion of atomic bombs, some contamination of the territories after nuclear arm tests, misfortunes with TMI-2 and Chernobyl have created a stable enmity and non-acceptance of the all connected with 'atom'. The mass media have strongly promoted the dissemination of the fear of radiation exposures. There is also an influence on that attitude the radiation protection regulation via the declaration of the linear no-threshold dependence of the radiation detriments and dose of exposure. Such concept ignores the adoptive features of all living. But modem studies have showed that protracted irradiation at the same dose is much less dangerous compared with sharp one. It could change public attitude to nuclear energy in the society. Role of nuclear communication for public informing: The reactions of public on various technological and man-made events differ significantly and are being determined not scales of catastrophes but the mental impression and a multiplication of psychological stresses in the society by mass -media. In present situation a nuclear community has to improve the contacts with the pubic, to launch more effective campaign for explanation of real adventures of nuclear power. It needs to compare the risks of climate warming and health detriments from different electricity production technologies and to show that nuclear power is a single alternative all fossil burning techniques of electricity production. It's the truth the nuclear power is a real method of fight for suppression of emission the greenhouse gases, isn't it? (author)

  15. Catastrophic health expenditure and its determinants in Kenya slum communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buigut, Steven; Ettarh, Remare; Amendah, Djesika D

    2015-05-14

    In Kenya, where 60 to 80% of the urban residents live in informal settlements (frequently referred to as slums), out-of-pocket (OOP) payments account for more than a third of national health expenditures. However, little is known on the extent to which these OOP payments are associated with personal or household financial catastrophe in the slums. This paper seeks to examine the incidence and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure among urban slum communities in Kenya. We use a unique dataset on informal settlement residents in Kenya and various approaches that relate households OOP payments for healthcare to total expenditures adjusted for subsistence, or income. We classified households whose OOP was in excess of a predefined threshold as facing catastrophic health expenditures (CHE), and identified the determinants of CHE using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The results indicate that the proportion of households facing CHE varies widely between 1.52% and 28.38% depending on the method and the threshold used. A core set of variables were found to be key determinants of CHE. The number of working adults in a household and membership in a social safety net appear to reduce the risk of catastrophic expenditure. Conversely, seeking care in a public or private hospital increases the risk of CHE. This study suggests that a substantial proportion of residents of informal settlements in Kenya face CHE and would likely forgo health care they need but cannot afford. Mechanisms that pool risk and cost (insurance) are needed to protect slum residents from CHE and improve equity in health care access and payment.

  16. Reducing Food Poverty and Vulnerability among the Rural Elderly with Chronic Diseases: The Role of the New Rural Pension Scheme in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaohua Zhang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability to food poverty is the probability of an individual falling below the food poverty line in the near future, which provides a forward-looking welfare analysis. Applying a nationally representative survey dataset, this study investigates the role of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS in reducing food poverty and vulnerability among the rural elderly with chronic diseases. By designing province-specific food poverty lines to account for variations in the elderly’s needs, as well as the prices across provinces using a least-cost linear programming approach, the food poverty incidences among the elderly with chronic diseases are calculated. Applying a three-stage feasible generalized least squares (FGLS procedure, the vulnerability to food poverty is estimated. Our results show that food poverty incidence and vulnerability of the elderly with chronic diseases in rural China is 41.9% and 35% respectively, which is 8% and 6% higher, respectively, than the elderly that are in good health. To address the potential endogeneity of pension payment, a fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD regression is employed to investigate the effects of pension income on food poverty and vulnerability for different population groups. We found that pension income decreases the probability of being food poor and the vulnerability to food poverty among the elderly with chronic diseases by 12.9% and 16.8% respectively, while it has no significant effect on the elderly in good health.

  17. Reducing Food Poverty and Vulnerability among the Rural Elderly with Chronic Diseases: The Role of the New Rural Pension Scheme in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaohua; Luo, Yuxi; Robinson, Derrick

    2018-06-13

    Vulnerability to food poverty is the probability of an individual falling below the food poverty line in the near future, which provides a forward-looking welfare analysis. Applying a nationally representative survey dataset, this study investigates the role of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) in reducing food poverty and vulnerability among the rural elderly with chronic diseases. By designing province-specific food poverty lines to account for variations in the elderly’s needs, as well as the prices across provinces using a least-cost linear programming approach, the food poverty incidences among the elderly with chronic diseases are calculated. Applying a three-stage feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) procedure, the vulnerability to food poverty is estimated. Our results show that food poverty incidence and vulnerability of the elderly with chronic diseases in rural China is 41.9% and 35% respectively, which is 8% and 6% higher, respectively, than the elderly that are in good health. To address the potential endogeneity of pension payment, a fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) regression is employed to investigate the effects of pension income on food poverty and vulnerability for different population groups. We found that pension income decreases the probability of being food poor and the vulnerability to food poverty among the elderly with chronic diseases by 12.9% and 16.8% respectively, while it has no significant effect on the elderly in good health.

  18. Predicting Catastrophic BGP Routing Instabilities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nguyen, Lien

    2004-01-01

    .... Currently, this critical function is performed by the Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) version 4 RF01771. Like all routing protocols, BGP is vulnerable to instabilities that reduce its effectiveness...

  19. [Bioethics in catastrophe situations such as earthquakes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, C Francisco Javier

    2012-01-01

    A catastrophe of the magnitude of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Chile not long ago, forces us to raise some questions that we will try to answer from a philosophical, ethical and responsibility viewpoints. An analysis of the basic principles of bioethics is also justified. A natural catastrophe is not, by itself, moral or immoral, fair or unfair. However, its consequences could certainly be regarded as such, depending on whether they could have been prevented or mitigated. We will identify those individuals, who have the ethical responsibility to attend the victims and the ethical principles that must guide the tasks of healthcare and psychological support teams. The minimal indispensable actions to obtain an adequate social and legal protection of vulnerable people, must be defined according to international guidelines. These reflections are intended to improve the responsibility of the State and all the community, to efficiently prevent and repair the material and psychological consequences of such a catastrophe.

  20. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Go, Ellen J L; O'Neil, Kathleen M

    2017-09-01

    To review the difficult syndrome of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, emphasizing new developments in the diagnosis, pathogenesis and treatment. Few recent publications directly address pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Most articles are case reports or are data from adult and pediatric registries. The major factors contributing to most pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome include infection and the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies, but complement activation also is important in creating diffuse thrombosis in the microcirculation. Treatment of the acute emergency requires anticoagulation, suppression of the hyperinflammatory state and elimination of the triggering infection. Inhibition of complement activation appears to improve outcome in limited studies, and suppression of antiphospholipid antibody formation may be important in long-term management. CAPS, an antibody-mediated diffuse thrombotic disease of microvasculature, is rare in childhood but has high mortality (33-50%). It requires prompt recognition and aggressive multimodality treatment, including anticoagulation, anti-inflammatory therapy and elimination of inciting infection and pathogenic autoantibodies.

  1. Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

  2. Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S.; de Queiroz, Amilcar R.

    2018-02-01

    We show that the N -particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N -body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

  3. Threshold Signature Schemes Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasiya Victorovna Beresneva

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This work is devoted to an investigation of threshold signature schemes. The systematization of the threshold signature schemes was done, cryptographic constructions based on interpolation Lagrange polynomial, elliptic curves and bilinear pairings were examined. Different methods of generation and verification of threshold signatures were explored, the availability of practical usage of threshold schemes in mobile agents, Internet banking and e-currency was shown. The topics of further investigation were given and it could reduce a level of counterfeit electronic documents signed by a group of users.

  4. Colour schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Leeuwen, Theo

    2013-01-01

    This chapter presents a framework for analysing colour schemes based on a parametric approach that includes not only hue, value and saturation, but also purity, transparency, luminosity, luminescence, lustre, modulation and differentiation.......This chapter presents a framework for analysing colour schemes based on a parametric approach that includes not only hue, value and saturation, but also purity, transparency, luminosity, luminescence, lustre, modulation and differentiation....

  5. Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roby Velez

    Full Text Available A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs, which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules. While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1 induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning, which 2 produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3 yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting.

  6. Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clune, Jeff

    2017-01-01

    A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs), which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules). While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate) learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1) induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning), which 2) produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3) yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting. PMID:29145413

  7. Catastrophic Economic Consequences of Healthcare Payments: Effects on Poverty Estimates in Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Shoukry Rashad

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Healthcare payments could drive households with no health insurance coverage into financial catastrophe, which might lead them to cut spending on necessities, sell assets, or use credit. In extreme cases, healthcare payments could have devastating consequences on the household economic status that would push them into extreme poverty. Using nationally representative surveys from three Arab countries, namely, Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine, this paper examines the incidence, intensity and distribution of catastrophic health payments, and assesses the poverty impact of out-of-pocket health payments (OOP. The OOP for healthcare were considered catastrophic if it exceeded 10% of a household’s total expenditure or 40% of non-food expenditure. The poverty impact was evaluated using poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP. Results show that OOP exacerbate households’ living severely in Egypt, pushing more than one-fifth of the population into a financial catastrophe and 3% into extreme poverty in 2011. However, in Jordan and Palestine, the disruptive impact of OOP remains modest over time. In the three countries, the catastrophic health payment is the problem of the better off households. Poverty alleviation policies should help reduce the reliance on OOP to finance healthcare. Moving toward universal health coverage could also be a promising option to protect households from the catastrophic economic consequences of health care payments.

  8. Novel Z-scheme BiOBr/reduced graphene oxide/protonated g-C3N4 photocatalyst: Synthesis, characterization, visible light photocatalytic activity and mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Yongchao; Chen, Kezheng

    2018-04-01

    The novel BiOBr/reduced graphene oxide/protonated g-C3N4 (BiOBr/RGO/pg-C3N4) composites were successfully synthesized by using a facile solvothermal synthesis method. The structure, morphology, optical and electronic properties were explored by X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), UV-Vis diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS), and photoelectrochemical measurement. The photocatalytic activities of as-synthesized samples were evaluated by the degradation of Rhodamine B (Rh B) and tetracycline hydrochloride (TC) aqueous solution under visible light irradiation (λ > 420nm). Compared with BiOBr, protonated g-C3N4 (pg-C3N4), BiOBr/pg-C3N4 and RGO/pg-C3N4, BiOBr/RGO/pg-C3N4 composites exhibited higher photocatalytic activity. The total organic carbon (TOC) removal ratios of Rh B and TC over 10% BiOBr/RGO/pg-C3N4 were 88% and 59%, respectively. The excellent photcatalytic performance was investigated by photoluminescence spectroscopy (PL), the radical quenching and electron spin resonance experiments. A Z-scheme charge transfer mechanism was proposed, in which RGO acted as an electron transfer mediator. It was worth pointing out that the closely contacted two-dimensional interface among the BiOBr, the RGO and pg-C3N4 promoted the separation and transfer of photo-generated charge carriers, and thus enhanced the photocatalytic efficiency.

  9. On Converting Secret Sharing Scheme to Visual Secret Sharing Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Daoshun

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Traditional Secret Sharing (SS schemes reconstruct secret exactly the same as the original one but involve complex computation. Visual Secret Sharing (VSS schemes decode the secret without computation, but each share is m times as big as the original and the quality of the reconstructed secret image is reduced. Probabilistic visual secret sharing (Prob.VSS schemes for a binary image use only one subpixel to share the secret image; however the probability of white pixels in a white area is higher than that in a black area in the reconstructed secret image. SS schemes, VSS schemes, and Prob. VSS schemes have various construction methods and advantages. This paper first presents an approach to convert (transform a -SS scheme to a -VSS scheme for greyscale images. The generation of the shadow images (shares is based on Boolean XOR operation. The secret image can be reconstructed directly by performing Boolean OR operation, as in most conventional VSS schemes. Its pixel expansion is significantly smaller than that of VSS schemes. The quality of the reconstructed images, measured by average contrast, is the same as VSS schemes. Then a novel matrix-concatenation approach is used to extend the greyscale -SS scheme to a more general case of greyscale -VSS scheme.

  10. Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20 percent of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the...

  11. Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

    2008-01-01

    Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform

  12. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in leprosy | Chewoolkar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to ...

  13. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: task force report summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Rodríguez-Pintó, I

    2014-10-01

    The Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) aimed to assess the current knowledge on pathogenesis, clinical and laboratory features, diagnosis and classification, precipitating factors and treatment of CAPS. This article summarizes the main aspects of its final report. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  14. Catastrophic risk : Social influences on insurance decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krawczyk, Michal; Trautmann, Stefan; van de Kuilen, Gijs

    We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social

  15. Catastrophic risks and insurance in farm-level decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: risk perception, risk attitude, catastrophic risk, insurance, farm characteristics, farmer personal characteristics, utility-efficient programming, arable farming, dairy farming

    Catastrophic risks can cause severe cash flow problems for farmers or even result into their

  16. Tradable schemes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.K. Hoogland (Jiri); C.D.D. Neumann

    2000-01-01

    textabstractIn this article we present a new approach to the numerical valuation of derivative securities. The method is based on our previous work where we formulated the theory of pricing in terms of tradables. The basic idea is to fit a finite difference scheme to exact solutions of the pricing

  17. Axial and focal-plane diffraction catastrophe integrals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, M V; Howls, C J

    2010-01-01

    Exact expressions in terms of Bessel functions are found for some of the diffraction catastrophe integrals that decorate caustics in optics and mechanics. These are the axial and focal-plane sections of the elliptic and hyperbolic umbilic diffraction catastrophes, and symmetric elliptic and hyperbolic unfoldings of the X 9 diffraction catastrophes. These representations reveal unexpected relations between the integrals.

  18. A probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Rui; Martina, Mario; Stephenson, David; Youngman, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Economic losses due to natural hazards have shown an upward trend since 1980, which is expected to continue. Recent years have seen a growing worldwide commitment towards the reduction of disaster losses. This requires effective management of disaster risk at all levels, a part of which involves reducing financial vulnerability to disasters ex-ante, ensuring that necessary resources will be available following such events. One way to achieve this is through risk transfer instruments. These can be based on different types of triggers, which determine the conditions under which payouts are made after an event. This study focuses on parametric triggers, where payouts are determined by the occurrence of an event exceeding specified physical parameters at a given location, or at multiple locations, or over a region. This type of product offers a number of important advantages, and its adoption is increasing. The main drawback of parametric triggers is their susceptibility to basis risk, which arises when there is a mismatch between triggered payouts and the occurrence of loss events. This is unavoidable in said programmes, as their calibration is based on models containing a number of different sources of uncertainty. Thus, a deterministic definition of the loss event triggering parameters appears flawed. However, often for simplicity, this is the way in which most parametric models tend to be developed. This study therefore presents an innovative probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance. It is advantageous as it recognizes uncertainties and minimizes basis risk while maintaining a simple and transparent procedure. A logistic regression model is constructed here to represent the occurrence of loss events based on certain loss index variables, obtained through the transformation of input environmental variables. Flood-related losses due to rainfall are studied. The resulting model is able, for any given day, to issue probabilities of occurrence of loss

  19. Nonlinear physics: Catastrophe, chaos and complexity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arecchi, F.T.

    1992-01-01

    Currently in the world of physics, there is open debate on the role of the three C's - catastrophe, chaos and complexity. Seen as new ideas or paradigms, incapable of being harmonized within the realm of traditional physics, these terms seem to be creating turmoil in the classical physics establishment whose foundations date back to the early seventeenth century. This paper first defines catastrophe, chaos and complexity and shows how these terms are all connected to nonlinear dynamics and how they have long since been present within scientific treatises. It also evidences the relationship of the three C's with the concept of organization, inappropriately called self-organization, and with recognition and decisional strategies of cognitive systems. Relevant to natural science, the development of these considerations is necessitating the re-examination of the role and capabilities of human knowledge and a return to inter-disciplinary scientific-philosophical debate

  20. Diagnosis and management of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmi, Or; Berla, Maya; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Levy, Yair

    2017-04-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare, life-threatening disease. In 1992, Asherson defined it as a widespread coagulopathy related to the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). CAPS requires rapid diagnosis and prompt initiation of treatment. Areas covered: This paper discusses all aspects of CAPS, including its pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches, differential diagnoses, management and treatment of relapsing CAPS, and its prognosis. To obtain the information used in this review, scientific databases were searched using the key words antiphospholipid antibodies, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, hemolytic anemia, lupus anticoagulant, and thrombotic microangiopathic hemolytic anemia. Expert commentary: CAPS is a rare variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). It is characterized by thrombosis in multiple organs and a cytokine storm developing over a short period, with histopathologic evidence of multiple microthromboses, and laboratory confirmation of high aPL titers. This review discusses the diagnostic challenges and current approaches to the treatment of CAPS.

  1. Tackling The Global Challenge: Humanitarian Catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth V. Iserson

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available “Humanitarian catastrophes,” conflicts and calamities generating both widespread human suffering and destructive events, require a wide range of emergency resources. This paper answers a number of questions that humanitarian catastrophes generate: Why and how do the most-developed countries—those with the resources, capabilities, and willingness to help—intervene in specific types of disasters? What ethical and legal guidelines shape our interventions? How well do we achieve our goals? It then suggests a number of changes to improve humanitarian responses, including better NGO-government cooperation, increased research on the best disaster response methods, clarification of the criteria and roles for humanitarian (military interventions, and development of post-2015 Millennium Development Goals with more accurate progress measures. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(2:231–240.

  2. Intestinal malrotation and catastrophic volvulus in infancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Henry Chong; Pickard, Sarah S; Sridhar, Sunita; Dutta, Sanjeev

    2012-07-01

    Intestinal malrotation in the newborn is usually diagnosed after signs of intestinal obstruction, such as bilious emesis, and corrected with the Ladd procedure. The objective of this report is to describe the presentation of severe cases of midgut volvulus presenting in infancy, and to discuss the characteristics of these cases. We performed a 7-year review at our institution and present two cases of catastrophic midgut volvulus presenting in the post-neonatal period, ending in death soon after the onset of symptoms. These two patients also had significant laboratory abnormalities compared to patients with more typical presentations resulting in favorable outcomes. Although most cases of intestinal malrotation in infancy can be treated successfully, in some circumstances, patients' symptoms may not be detected early enough for effective treatment, and therefore may result in catastrophic midgut volvulus and death. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Kent, A

    2004-01-01

    Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

  4. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pregnancy. Clinical report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khizroeva, J; Bitsadze, V; Makatsariya, A

    2018-01-08

    We have observed the development of a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a pregnant woman hospitalized at 28 weeks of gestation with a severe preeclampsia. On the same day, an eclampsia attack developed, and an emergency surgical delivery was performed. On the third day, multiorgan failure developed. Examination showed a persistent circulation of lupus anticoagulant, high level of antibodies to cardiolipin, b2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin. The usual diagnosis of the severe preeclampsia masked a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, exacerbated by the coincident presence of several types of antiphospholipid antibodies. The first pregnancy resulted in a premature birth at 25 weeks, possibly also due to the circulation of antiphospholipid antibodies. The trigger of the catastrophic form development was the pregnancy itself, surgical intervention, and hyperhomocysteinemia. CAPS is the most severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, manifested in multiple microthrombosis of microcirculation of vital organs and in the development of multiorgan failure against the background of the high level of antiphospholipid antibodies. CAPS is characterized by renal, cerebral, gastrointestinal, adrenal, ovarian, skin, and other forms of microthrombosis. Thrombosis recurrence is typical. Thrombotic microvasculopathy lies at the heart of multiorgan failure and manifests clinically in central nervous system lesions, adrenal insufficiency, and ARDS development. CAPS is a life-threatening condition, therefore, requires an urgent treatment. Optimal treatment of CAPS is not developed. CAPS represent a general medical multidisciplinary problem.

  5. Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinge LIU

    Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

  6. Utilization of symmetrical components in a communication-assisted protection scheme for radial MV feeders with variable or reduced short-circuit currents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ciontea, Catalin-Iosif; Bak, Claus Leth; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2017-01-01

    because the fault current is significantly lower in the islanded mode compared to the grid-connected mode and consequently a single set of settings for the OC relays is not sufficient. This paper propose a communication-assisted protection scheme that is able to operate correctly in a radial Medium...... over positive-sequence current, while the relays placed downstream the fault detect a zero magnitude for their corresponding ratios. Protection relays calculate the magnitude of the proposed ratio and then exchange the obtained value with the adjacent upstream relays using communication. Therefore......, each relay would have access to its own ratio and to the ratio provided by the adjacent relay. Finally, the relay with the highest calculated magnitude of the ratio of zero-sequence to positive-sequence current will trip, thus clearing the fault. The new protection scheme is implemented in a test...

  7. Community Based Health Insurance Schemes and Protection of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objectives of this study are two folds: firstly to explore the magnitude of catastrophic expenditure, and secondly to determine its contributing factor,s including the protective impact of the voluntary community based health insurance schemes in Tanzania. The study covered 274 respondents. Study findings have shown ...

  8. Evaluation of Rajiv Aarogyasri Health Insurance Scheme in Andrha ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    In 2007, out-of-pocket expenditures accounted for 90% of total private expenditure on healthcare in India. The cost of coping with serious disease can be ruinous for families living below the poverty line. The Rajiv Aarogyasri Health Insurance Scheme was established in Andrha Pradesh to mitigate catastrophic healthcare ...

  9. Reducing medical claims cost to Ghana?s National Health Insurance scheme: a cross-sectional comparative assessment of the paper- and electronic-based claims reviews

    OpenAIRE

    Nsiah-Boateng, Eric; Asenso-Boadi, Francis; Dsane-Selby, Lydia; Andoh-Adjei, Francis-Xavier; Otoo, Nathaniel; Akweongo, Patricia; Aikins, Moses

    2017-01-01

    Background A robust medical claims review system is crucial for addressing fraud and abuse and ensuring financial viability of health insurance organisations. This paper assesses claims adjustment rate of the paper- and electronic-based claims reviews of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) in Ghana. Methods The study was a cross-sectional comparative assessment of paper- and electronic-based claims reviews of the NHIS. Medical claims of subscribers for the year, 2014 were requested fr...

  10. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  11. Ensemble learning in fixed expansion layer networks for mitigating catastrophic forgetting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coop, Robert; Mishtal, Aaron; Arel, Itamar

    2013-10-01

    Catastrophic forgetting is a well-studied attribute of most parameterized supervised learning systems. A variation of this phenomenon, in the context of feedforward neural networks, arises when nonstationary inputs lead to loss of previously learned mappings. The majority of the schemes proposed in the literature for mitigating catastrophic forgetting were not data driven and did not scale well. We introduce the fixed expansion layer (FEL) feedforward neural network, which embeds a sparsely encoding hidden layer to help mitigate forgetting of prior learned representations. In addition, we investigate a novel framework for training ensembles of FEL networks, based on exploiting an information-theoretic measure of diversity between FEL learners, to further control undesired plasticity. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a basic classification task, clearly emphasizing its advantages over existing techniques. The architecture proposed can be enhanced to address a range of computational intelligence tasks, such as regression problems and system control.

  12. A unified approach of catastrophic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nikolopoulos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

  13. Timber Price Dynamics Following a Natural Catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20% of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the short- and long-run effects of the hurricane on the prices of timber stocks, we estimated an intervention model of the residuals of cointegration of South Carolina sawtimber and pulpwood ...

  14. Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

    2005-12-08

    The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

  15. Astrophysics: Is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

    2005-12-01

    The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

  16. Numerical solution of the 1D kinetics equations using a cubic reduced nodal scheme; Solucion numerica de las ecuaciones de la cinetica 1D usando un esquema nodal cubico reducido

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomez T, A.M.; Valle G, E. del [IPN-ESFM, 07738 Mexico D.F. (Mexico); Delfin L, A.; Alonso V, G. [ININ, 52045 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)] e-mail: armagotorres@aol.com

    2003-07-01

    In this work a finite differences technique centered in mesh based on a cubic reduced nodal scheme type finite element to solve the equations of the kinetics 1 D that include the equations corresponding to the concentrations of precursors of delayed neutrons is described. The technique of finite elements used is that of Galerkin where so much the neutron flux as the concentrations of precursors its are spatially approached by means of a three grade polynomial. The matrices of rigidity and of mass that arise during this discretization process are numerically evaluated using the open quadrature non standard of Newton-Cotes and that of Radau respectively. The purpose of the application of these quadratures is the one of to eliminate in the global matrices the couplings among the values of the flow in points of the discretization with the consequent advantages as for the reduction of the order of the matrix associated to the discreet problem that is to solve. As for the time dependent part the classical integration scheme known as {theta} scheme is applied. After carrying out the one reordering of unknown and equations it arrives to a reduced system that it can be solved but quickly. With the McKin compute program developed its were solved three benchmark problems and those results are shown for the relative powers. (Author)

  17. Multiple Sclerosis and Catastrophic Health Expenditure in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juyani, Yaser; Hamedi, Dorsa; Hosseini Jebeli, Seyede Sedighe; Qasham, Maryam

    2016-09-01

    There are many disabling medical conditions which can result in catastrophic health expenditure. Multiple Sclerosis is one of the most costly medical conditions through the world which encounter families to the catastrophic health expenditures. This study aims to investigate on what extent Multiple sclerosis patients face catastrophic costs. This study was carried out in Ahvaz, Iran (2014). The study population included households that at least one of their members suffers from MS. To analyze data, Logit regression model was employed by using the default software STATA12. 3.37% of families were encountered with catastrophic costs. Important variables including brand of drug, housing, income and health insurance were significantly correlated with catastrophic expenditure. This study suggests that although a small proportion of MS patients met the catastrophic health expenditure, mechanisms that pool risk and cost (e.g. health insurance) are required to protect them and improve financial and access equity in health care.

  18. Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ballengee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

  19. Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

    2013-10-01

    Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

  20. Cut-Off Points for Mild, Moderate, and Severe Pain on the Numeric Rating Scale for Pain in Patients with Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain: Variability and Influence of Sex and Catastrophizing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonstra, Anne M; Stewart, Roy E; Köke, Albère J A; Oosterwijk, René F A; Swaan, Jeannette L; Schreurs, Karlein M G; Schiphorst Preuper, Henrica R

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: The 0-10 Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) is often used in pain management. The aims of our study were to determine the cut-off points for mild, moderate, and severe pain in terms of pain-related interference with functioning in patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain, to measure the variability of the optimal cut-off points, and to determine the influence of patients' catastrophizing and their sex on these cut-off points. Methods: 2854 patients were included. Pain was assessed by the NRS, functioning by the Pain Disability Index (PDI) and catastrophizing by the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Cut-off point schemes were tested using ANOVAs with and without using the PSC scores or sex as co-variates and with the interaction between CP scheme and PCS score and sex, respectively. The variability of the optimal cut-off point schemes was quantified using bootstrapping procedure. Results and conclusion: The study showed that NRS scores ≤ 5 correspond to mild, scores of 6-7 to moderate and scores ≥8 to severe pain in terms of pain-related interference with functioning. Bootstrapping analysis identified this optimal NRS cut-off point scheme in 90% of the bootstrapping samples. The interpretation of the NRS is independent of sex, but seems to depend on catastrophizing. In patients with high catastrophizing tendency, the optimal cut-off point scheme equals that for the total study sample, but in patients with a low catastrophizing tendency, NRS scores ≤ 3 correspond to mild, scores of 4-6 to moderate and scores ≥7 to severe pain in terms of interference with functioning. In these optimal cut-off schemes, NRS scores of 4 and 5 correspond to moderate interference with functioning for patients with low catastrophizing tendency and to mild interference for patients with high catastrophizing tendency. Theoretically one would therefore expect that among the patients with NRS scores 4 and 5 there would be a higher average PDI score for those with low

  1. Indirect Catastrophic Injuries in Olympic Styles of Wrestling in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Kordi, Ramin; Ziaee, Vahid; Rostami, Mohsen; Wallace, W. Angus

    2011-01-01

    Background: Data on indirect catastrophic injuries in wrestling are scarce. Objectives: To develop a profile of indirect catastrophic injuries in international styles of wrestling and to describe possible risk factors. Study Design: Retrospective case series; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Indirect catastrophic injuries that occurred in wrestling clubs in Iran from July 1998 to June 2005 were identified by contacting several sources. The cases were retrospectively reviewed. Results: The injur...

  2. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tharani Loganathan

    Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

  3. Coronal Flux Rope Catastrophe Associated With Internal Energy Release

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Bin; Hu, Youqiu; Wang, Yuming; Zhang, Quanhao; Liu, Rui; Gou, Tingyu; Shen, Chenglong

    2018-04-01

    Magnetic energy during the catastrophe was predominantly studied by the previous catastrophe works since it is believed to be the main energy supplier for the solar eruptions. However, the contribution of other types of energies during the catastrophe cannot be neglected. This paper studies the catastrophe of the coronal flux rope system in the solar wind background, with emphasis on the transformation of different types of energies during the catastrophe. The coronal flux rope is characterized by its axial and poloidal magnetic fluxes and total mass. It is shown that a catastrophe can be triggered by not only an increase but also a decrease of the axial magnetic flux. Moreover, the internal energy of the rope is found to be released during the catastrophe so as to provide energy for the upward eruption of the flux rope. As far as the magnetic energy is concerned, it provides only part of the energy release, or even increases during the catastrophe, so the internal energy may act as the dominant or even the unique energy supplier during the catastrophe.

  4. Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Morris

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Cet article relie Madame Bovary au contexte scientifique français des années 1850, en lisant le roman de Flaubert à la lumière des théories de Cuvier. Le savant français Georges Cuvier, avec nombre de ses contemporains, explique les origines du monde à l’aide de la théorie des catastrophes. D’après cette théorie, le monde est divisé en périodes très courtes ponctuées de grandes catastrophes ou, en termes cuviériens, de « révolutions » qui ont éradiqué toute vie et ont permis au monde d’être entièrement repeuplé. Une telle conception affecte l’idée même du « temps ». Cuvier pense que la formation de la Terre est relativement récente, l’époque présente n’étant vieille que de cinq mille ans. Cette compression temporelle peut être rapportée à Madame Bovary dont le « tempo » s’accroît au fur et à mesure qu’on se rapproche du dénouement. Dans la théorie des catastrophes comme dans le roman, le temps ne suit pas une ligne chronologique. Les « révolutions » viennent briser le fil continu du temps et Emma est souvent incapable de distinguer entre le passé, le présent et le futur. Les « révolutions » servent aussi à ponctuer et à perturber le cours de la vie sur Terre en produisant des événements majeurs dans l’histoire du globe. Il en est de même dans la vie d’Emma. Son existence est marquée par des événements majeurs, comme le bal, qui créent un éclatement et une fragmentation de la temporalité, comme dans la théorie de Cuvier. Je défendrai aussi l’idée d’un lien entre la soudaineté et la violence des « révolutions » et les crises nerveuses d’Emma, qui surviennent brusquement et relèvent de l’hystérie. La conception cuviérienne de la temporalité doit enfin être envisagée au regard des théories de l’évolution, ce qui implique de réévaluer les notions d’adaptation, d’hérédité et de mort dans le roman de Flaubert.This paper locates Madame

  5. Additive operator-difference schemes splitting schemes

    CERN Document Server

    Vabishchevich, Petr N

    2013-01-01

    Applied mathematical modeling isconcerned with solving unsteady problems. This bookshows how toconstruct additive difference schemes to solve approximately unsteady multi-dimensional problems for PDEs. Two classes of schemes are highlighted: methods of splitting with respect to spatial variables (alternating direction methods) and schemes of splitting into physical processes. Also regionally additive schemes (domain decomposition methods)and unconditionally stable additive schemes of multi-component splitting are considered for evolutionary equations of first and second order as well as for sy

  6. Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns LC

    2015-01-01

    predictor of chronic pain persisting ≥3 months following TKA in five of the studies assessed. Limitations of studies included lack of large-scale data, absence of standardized pain measurements, inadequate multivariate adjustment, such as failure to control for analgesic use and other relevant covariates, and failure to report non-significant parameter estimates. Conclusion: This study provides moderate-level evidence for pain catastrophizing as an independent predictor of chronic pain post-TKA. Directions for future research include larger, well-controlled studies with standard pain outcomes, identification of clinically-relevant catastrophizing cut-offs that predict pain outcomes, investigation of other psychosocial risk factors, and assessment of interventions aimed to reduce pain catastrophizing on chronic pain outcomes following TKA surgery. Keywords: pain catastrophizing, total knee arthroplasty, total knee replacement, knee arthroplasty, risk factors, chronic pain

  7. A ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, X.; Li, D.; Li, G.

    2014-11-01

    In recent years, great disasters happen now and then. Disaster management test the emergency operation ability of the government and society all over the world. Immediately after the occurrence of a great disaster (e.g., earthquake), a massive nationwide rescue and relief operation need to be kicked off instantly. In order to improve the organizations efficiency of the emergency rescue, the organizers need to take charge of the information of the rescuer teams, including the real time location, the equipment with the team, the technical skills of the rescuers, and so on. One of the key factors for the success of emergency operations is the real time location of the rescuers dynamically. Real time tracking methods are used to track the professional rescuer teams now. But volunteers' participation play more and more important roles in great disasters. However, real time tracking of the volunteers will cause many problems, e.g., privacy leakage, expensive data consumption, etc. These problems may reduce the enthusiasm of volunteers' participation for catastrophe rescue. In fact, the great disaster is just small probability event, it is not necessary to track the volunteers (even rescuer teams) every time every day. In order to solve this problem, a ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue is presented in this paper. In this method, the handheld devices using GPS technology to provide the location of the users, e.g., smart phone, is used as the positioning equipment; an emergency tracking information database including the ID of the ground moving target (including the rescuer teams and volunteers), the communication number of the handheld devices with the moving target, and the usually living region, etc., is built in advance by registration; when catastrophe happens, the ground moving targets that living close to the disaster area will be filtered by the usually living region; then the activation short message will be sent to the selected

  8. Application of catastrophe theory to nuclear structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scharff-Goldhaber, G.; Dresden, M.

    1979-01-01

    Three two-parameter models, one describing an A-body system (the atomic nucleus) and two describing many-body systems (the van der Waals gas and the ferroelectric (perovskite) system) are compared within the framework of catastrophe theory. It is shown that each has a critical point (second-order phase transition) when the two counteracting forces controlling it are in balance; further, each undergoes a first-order phase transition when one of the forces vanishes (the deforming force for the nucleus, the attractive force for the van der Waals gas, and the dielectric constant for the perovskite). Finally, when both parameters are kept constant, a kind of phase transition may occur at a critical angular momentum, critical pressure, and critical electric field. 3 figures, 1 table

  9. Spiral arms, comets and terrestrial catastrophism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clube, S.V.M.; Napier, W.M.

    1982-01-01

    A review is presented of an hypothesis of terrestrial catastrophism in which comets grow in molecular clouds and are captured by the Sun as it passes through the spiral arms of the Galaxy. Assuming that comets are a major supplier of the Earth-crossing (Appollo) asteroid population, the latter fluctuates correspondingly and leads to episodes of terrestrial bombardment. Changes in the rotational momentum of core and mantle, generated by impacts, lead to episodes of magnetic field reversal and tectonic activity, while surface phenomena lead to ice-ages and mass extinctions. An episodic geophysical history with an interstellar connection is thus implied. If comets in spiral arms are necessary intermediaries in the process of star formation, the theory also has implications relating to early solar system history and galactic chemistry. These aspects are briefly discussed with special reference to the nature of spiral arms. (author)

  10. Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dale R. Lockwood

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the "real" world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be "tools" rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a "both-and" rather than an "either-or" approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may provide a way forward

  11. Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2009-01-01

    This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

  12. 'Performative narrativity': Palestinian identity and the performance of catastrophe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saloul, I.

    2008-01-01

    The day Israel annually celebrates as its "Day of Independence" Palestinians commemorate as their day of catastrophe (al-nakba). To most Palestinians, the catastrophic loss of Palestine in 1948 represents the climactic formative event of their lives. In the aftermath of this loss, the Palestinian

  13. Catastrophe, Gender and Urban Experience, 1648–1920

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Employing a broad definition of catastrophe, this book examines how urban communities conceived, adapted to and were transformed by catastrophes. Competing views of gender figure in the telling and retelling of these trag- edies, which are mediated by myth and memory. This is a nuanced account...

  14. Optimal design of earth-moving machine elements with cusp catastrophe theory application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitukhin, A. V.; Skobtsov, I. G.

    2017-10-01

    This paper deals with the optimal design problem solution for the operator of an earth-moving machine with a roll-over protective structure (ROPS) in terms of the catastrophe theory. A brief description of the catastrophe theory is presented, the cusp catastrophe is considered, control parameters are viewed as Gaussian stochastic quantities in the first part of the paper. The statement of optimal design problem is given in the second part of the paper. It includes the choice of the objective function and independent design variables, establishment of system limits. The objective function is determined as mean total cost that includes initial cost and cost of failure according to the cusp catastrophe probability. Algorithm of random search method with an interval reduction subject to side and functional constraints is given in the last part of the paper. The way of optimal design problem solution can be applied to choose rational ROPS parameters, which will increase safety and reduce production and exploitation expenses.

  15. Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel E Bialosky

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

  16. Applications of modelling historical catastrophic events with implications for catastrophe risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorby, A.; Grossi, P.; Pomonis, A.; Williams, C.; Nyst, M.; Onur, T.; Seneviratna, P.; Baca, A.

    2009-04-01

    The management of catastrophe risk is concerned with the quantification of financial losses, and their associated probabilities, for potential future catastrophes that might impact a region. Modelling of historical catastrophe events and, in particular, the potential consequences if a similar event were to occur at the present day can provide insight to help bridge the gap between what we know can happen from historical experience and what potential losses might be out there in the "universe" of potential catastrophes. The 1908 Messina Earthquake (and accompanying local tsunami) was one of the most destructive earthquakes to have occurred in Europe and by most accounts remains Europe's most fatal with over 70,000 casualties estimated. However, what would the potential consequences be, in terms of financial and human losses, if a similar earthquake were to occur at the present day? Exposures, building stock and populations can change over time and, therefore, the consequences of a similar earthquake at the present day may sensibly differ from those observed in 1908. The city of Messina has been reconstructed several times in its history, including following the 1908 earthquake and again following the Second World War. The 1908 earthquake prompted the introduction of the first seismic design regulations in Italy and since 1909 parts of the Messina and Calabria regions have been in the zones of highest seismic coefficient. Utilizing commercial catastrophe loss modelling technology - which combines the modelling of hazard, vulnerability, and financial losses on a database of property exposures - a modelled earthquake scenario of M7.2 in the Messina Straits region of Southern Italy is considered. This modelled earthquake is used to assess the potential consequences in terms of financial losses that an earthquake similar to the 1908 earthquake might have if it were to occur at the present day. Loss results are discussed in the context of applications for the financial

  17. The impact of climate change on catastrophe risk models : implications for catastrophe risk markets in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Seo, John; Mahul, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, i...

  18. GDP-to-GTP exchange on the microtubule end can contribute to the frequency of catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piedra, Felipe-Andrés; Kim, Tae; Garza, Emily S; Geyer, Elisabeth A; Burns, Alexander; Ye, Xuecheng; Rice, Luke M

    2016-11-07

    Microtubules are dynamic polymers of αβ-tubulin that have essential roles in chromosome segregation and organization of the cytoplasm. Catastrophe-the switch from growing to shrinking-occurs when a microtubule loses its stabilizing GTP cap. Recent evidence indicates that the nucleotide on the microtubule end controls how tightly an incoming subunit will be bound (trans-acting GTP), but most current models do not incorporate this information. We implemented trans-acting GTP into a computational model for microtubule dynamics. In simulations, growing microtubules often exposed terminal GDP-bound subunits without undergoing catastrophe. Transient GDP exposure on the growing plus end slowed elongation by reducing the number of favorable binding sites on the microtubule end. Slower elongation led to erosion of the GTP cap and an increase in the frequency of catastrophe. Allowing GDP-to-GTP exchange on terminal subunits in simulations mitigated these effects. Using mutant αβ-tubulin or modified GTP, we showed experimentally that a more readily exchangeable nucleotide led to less frequent catastrophe. Current models for microtubule dynamics do not account for GDP-to-GTP exchange on the growing microtubule end, so our findings provide a new way of thinking about the molecular events that initiate catastrophe. © 2016 Piedra et al. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). Two months after publication it is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

  19. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  20. Scalable Nonlinear Compact Schemes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghosh, Debojyoti [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Constantinescu, Emil M. [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States); Brown, Jed [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2014-04-01

    In this work, we focus on compact schemes resulting in tridiagonal systems of equations, specifically the fifth-order CRWENO scheme. We propose a scalable implementation of the nonlinear compact schemes by implementing a parallel tridiagonal solver based on the partitioning/substructuring approach. We use an iterative solver for the reduced system of equations; however, we solve this system to machine zero accuracy to ensure that no parallelization errors are introduced. It is possible to achieve machine-zero convergence with few iterations because of the diagonal dominance of the system. The number of iterations is specified a priori instead of a norm-based exit criterion, and collective communications are avoided. The overall algorithm thus involves only point-to-point communication between neighboring processors. Our implementation of the tridiagonal solver differs from and avoids the drawbacks of past efforts in the following ways: it introduces no parallelization-related approximations (multiprocessor solutions are exactly identical to uniprocessor ones), it involves minimal communication, the mathematical complexity is similar to that of the Thomas algorithm on a single processor, and it does not require any communication and computation scheduling.

  1. Simulation of the catastrophic floods caused by extreme rainfall events - Uh River basin case study

    OpenAIRE

    Pekárová, Pavla; Halmová, Dana; Mitková, Veronika

    2005-01-01

    The extreme rainfall events in Central and East Europe on August 2002 rise the question, how other basins would respond on such rainfall situations. Such theorisation helps us to arrange in advance the necessary activity in the basin to reduce the consequence of the assumed disaster. The aim of the study is to recognise a reaction of the Uh River basin (Slovakia, Ukraine) to the simulated catastrophic rainfall events from August 2002. Two precipitation scenarios, sc1 and sc2, were created. Th...

  2. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Motoh, Tsujimura [Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmochi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)

    2004-05-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource.

  3. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motoh, Tsujimura

    2004-01-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

  4. Socio-economic consequences of Chernobyl catastrophe. Social protection of the citizens, affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kholosha, V.; Kovalchuk, V.

    2003-01-01

    The accident on Chernobyl NPP has affected the destiny of 35 million people in Ukraine. The social protection of the population affected during Chernobyl catastrophe is founded on the Law of Ukraine 'About the status and social protection of citizens affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe' (see further - 'Law'), and is the principal direction of activity and the subject of the special state attention to total complex of problems bound to Chernobyl catastrophe consequences elimination. The current legislation stipulates partial compensation of material losses connected with resettlement of the affected population. According to the current legislation in Ukraine about 50 kinds of aid, privileges and compensations are submitted to the affected citizens

  5. Catastrophic Cervical Spine Injuries in Contact Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Michael James; McGuire, Robert A.; Dunn, Robert; Williams, Richard; Robertson, Peter; Twaddle, Bruce; Kiely, Patrick; Clarke, Andrew; Mazda, Keyvan; Davies, Paul; Pagarigan, Krystle T.; Dettori, Joseph R.

    2016-01-01

    Study Design Systematic review. Objectives To determine the incidence of catastrophic cervical spine injuries (CCSIs) among elite athletes participating in contact team sports and whether the incidence varies depending on the use of protective gear or by player position. Methods Electronic databases and reference lists of key articles published from January 1, 2000, to January 29, 2016, were searched. Results Fourteen studies were included that reported CCSI in rugby (n = 10), American football (n = 3), and Irish hurling (n = 1). Among Rugby Union players, incidence of CCSI was 4.1 per 100,000 player-hours. Among National Football League players, the CCSI rate was 0.6 per 100,000 player-exposures. At the collegiate level, the CCSI rate ranged from 1.1 to 4.7 per 100,000 player-years. Mixed populations of elite and recreational rugby players in four studies report a CCSI rate of 1.4 to 7.2 per 100,000 player-years. In this same population, the scrum accounted for 30 to 51% of total reported CCSIs in Rugby Union versus 0 to 4% in Rugby League. The tackle accounted for 29 to 39% of injuries in Rugby Union and 78 to 100% of injuries in Rugby League. Making a tackle was responsible for 29 to 80% of injuries in American football. Conclusion CCSIs are infrequent among elite athletes. There is insufficient evidence to determine the effect of protective gear (e.g., helmets, padding) on CCSI incidence. Scrum and tackle in rugby and tackling in American football account for the majority of CCSIs in each respective sport. PMID:27781193

  6. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: a clinical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayer, Ali; Ortega, Luis M

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare life-threatening autoimmune disease characterized by disseminated intravascular thrombosis resulting in multiorgan failure. Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), Google Scholar, PubMed (NLM), LISTA (EBSCO) and Web of Science have been searched. CAPS is due to antiphospholipid antibodies directed against a heterogeneous group of proteins that are associated with phospholipids. These autoantibodies activate endothelial cells, platelets, and immune cells, thereby promoting a proinflammatory and prothrombotic phenotype. Furthermore, antiphospholipid antibodies inhibit anticoagulants, impair fibrinolysis, and activate complements. Although CAPS can affect a variety of organs and tissues, the kidneys, lungs, central nervous system, heart, skin, liver, and gastrointestinal tract are most commonly affected. The systemic inflammatory response syndrome, likely to extensive tissue damage, accompanies CAPS. The most frequent renal manifestations are hypertension, proteinuria, hematuria, and acute renal failure.In the majority of patients with CAPS, a precipitating factor such as infection, surgery, or medication can be identified. Antiphospholipid antibodies such as lupus anticoagulant and antibodies against cardiolipin, β2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin are serological hallmark of CAPS. Laboratory tests often reveal antinuclear antibodies, thrombocytopenia, and anemia. Despite widespread intravascular coagulation, blood films reveal only a small number of schistocytes. In addition, severe thrombocytopenia is uncommon. Histologically, CAPS is characterized by acute thrombotic microangiopathy. CAPS must be distinguished from other forms of thrombotic microangiopathies such as hemolytic-uremic syndrome, thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and heparin-induced thrombocyt openia. CAPS is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Therefore, an aggressive multidisciplinary

  7. Catastrophic Cervical Spine Injuries in Contact Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Michael James; McGuire, Robert A; Dunn, Robert; Williams, Richard; Robertson, Peter; Twaddle, Bruce; Kiely, Patrick; Clarke, Andrew; Mazda, Keyvan; Davies, Paul; Pagarigan, Krystle T; Dettori, Joseph R

    2016-11-01

    Study Design  Systematic review. Objectives  To determine the incidence of catastrophic cervical spine injuries (CCSIs) among elite athletes participating in contact team sports and whether the incidence varies depending on the use of protective gear or by player position. Methods  Electronic databases and reference lists of key articles published from January 1, 2000, to January 29, 2016, were searched. Results  Fourteen studies were included that reported CCSI in rugby ( n  = 10), American football ( n  = 3), and Irish hurling ( n  = 1). Among Rugby Union players, incidence of CCSI was 4.1 per 100,000 player-hours. Among National Football League players, the CCSI rate was 0.6 per 100,000 player-exposures. At the collegiate level, the CCSI rate ranged from 1.1 to 4.7 per 100,000 player-years. Mixed populations of elite and recreational rugby players in four studies report a CCSI rate of 1.4 to 7.2 per 100,000 player-years. In this same population, the scrum accounted for 30 to 51% of total reported CCSIs in Rugby Union versus 0 to 4% in Rugby League. The tackle accounted for 29 to 39% of injuries in Rugby Union and 78 to 100% of injuries in Rugby League. Making a tackle was responsible for 29 to 80% of injuries in American football. Conclusion  CCSIs are infrequent among elite athletes. There is insufficient evidence to determine the effect of protective gear (e.g., helmets, padding) on CCSI incidence. Scrum and tackle in rugby and tackling in American football account for the majority of CCSIs in each respective sport.

  8. Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengwang Hao

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε0 exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of −1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

  9. Chernobyl: Endless horror. Late effects of the reactor catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roethlein, B.

    1996-01-01

    Ten years after the accident, the people of Chernobyl are trying to live a normal life, but the problems resulting from the catastrophe have not been solved. Some of them are just starting to emerge. (orig.) [de

  10. Polarization catastrophe in nanostructures doped in photonic band gap materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, Mahi R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, London N6A 3K7 (Canada)], E-mail: msingh@uwo.ca

    2008-11-30

    In the presence of the dipole-dipole interaction, we have studied a possible dielectric catastrophe in photonic band gap materials doped with an ensemble of four-level nanoparticles. It is found that the dielectric constant of the system has a singularity when the resonance energy lies within the bands. This phenomenon is known as the dielectric catastrophe. It is also found that this phenomenon depends on the strength of the dipole-dipole interaction.

  11. Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey S. Kryukovsky

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of special software for calculating of special functions, questions of portability, extensibility and interoperability.

  12. Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour les collectivités vulnérables des Caraïbes. De récents événements survenus dans les Caraïbes ont mis en relief les insuffisances des mesures régionales et nationales de préparation aux catastrophes. On manque particulièrement de systèmes d'alerte ...

  13. The Effectiveness of Catastrophe Bonds in Portfolio Diversification

    OpenAIRE

    Mariani, Massimo; Amoruso, Paola

    2016-01-01

    The rapid growth of catastrophe bonds in financial markets is due to increasing environmental disasters and consequent economic losses, barely covered by insurance and reinsurance companies. These securities represent an effective solution, allowing the risk transfer to the capital market. The objective of this paper is to prove real advantages of the investor who operates in this market segment, in terms of portfolio diversification. The present work indeed shows how investing in catastrophe...

  14. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneviève Chaput

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

  15. Understanding catastrophizing from a misdirected problem-solving perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flink, Ida K; Boersma, Katja; MacDonald, Shane; Linton, Steven J

    2012-05-01

    The aim is to explore pain catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective. The links between catastrophizing, problem framing, and problem-solving behaviour are examined through two possible models of mediation as inferred by two contemporary and complementary theoretical models, the misdirected problem solving model (Eccleston & Crombez, 2007) and the fear-anxiety-avoidance model (Asmundson, Norton, & Vlaeyen, 2004). In this prospective study, a general population sample (n= 173) with perceived problems with spinal pain filled out questionnaires twice; catastrophizing and problem framing were assessed on the first occasion and health care seeking (as a proxy for medically oriented problem solving) was assessed 7 months later. Two different approaches were used to explore whether the data supported any of the proposed models of mediation. First, multiple regressions were used according to traditional recommendations for mediation analyses. Second, a bootstrapping method (n= 1000 bootstrap resamples) was used to explore the significance of the indirect effects in both possible models of mediation. The results verified the concepts included in the misdirected problem solving model. However, the direction of the relations was more in line with the fear-anxiety-avoidance model. More specifically, the mediation analyses provided support for viewing catastrophizing as a mediator of the relation between biomedical problem framing and medically oriented problem-solving behaviour. These findings provide support for viewing catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective and imply a need to examine and address problem framing and catastrophizing in back pain patients. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  16. The resilient banality of catastrophes: about After Fukushima by Jean-Luc Nancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonaki, Yotetsu

    2016-01-01

    The author proposes some thoughts based on a book (The equivalence of catastrophes - After Fukushima) written by the French philosopher Jean-Luc Nancy for whom Fukushima cannot be reduced to technological dysfunctions, nor to a factor attributable to men in charge, but reveals a system of general equivalence which supports a whole civilisation. The author refers to the speech on safety engineering and on resilience in Japan, and outlines some surprising correspondences with Nancy's writings. With a reference to Heidegger, the author shows that what the catastrophe reveals is not only daunting or abnormal phenomena, but also and above all an almost ontological condition which command the normal operation of every day life. Based on Anders' works, he examines what is on in this techno-sphere which is finally similar to a 'self-transformation of the human being'

  17. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in obstetric practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Валерий Николаевич Запорожан

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Thus, the Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is much more common than has been assumed until now, in all patients the authors strongly recommend screening for AFA. Furthermore, eclampsia, HELLP-syndrome premature detachment of normally located placentae (PDNSP can develop in the presence of other defects of hemostasis, in particular in mutation FV Leiden, MTHFR C677T, deficiency of protein C (PC, protein S (PS. The combination of acquired thrombophilia due to APS, with genetic defects worsen hemostasis during the pathological process leading to the development of thrombotic complications. Perhaps a combination of hereditary thrombophilia and APS creates a favorable environment in which, under certain conditions, possible decompensation of the hemostatic system and the development of CAPS. Patients with APS constitute a group of very high risk of thromboembolic complications in the perioperative period. Even a minimally invasive intervention (biopsy, curettage, tooth extraction may trigger the development of CAPS. Thus, according to Erkan et al. (2003, 40% of patients develop CAPS was provoked by surgery. The main reasons for the development of thrombotic complications in connection with surgical intervention is the damage to the vessel wall, blood stasis and the abolition of indirect anticoagulants. In the study on the presence of genetic thrombophilia was found heterozygous form of FV Leiden mutation and homozygous mutation of MTHFR C677T. He was diagnosed with pregnancy 14 weeks, APS, mixed form of thrombophilia (a combination of acquisitions and multigenic thrombophilia, hyperhomocysteinemia, weighed down by obstetric and somatic history.It is very urgent and important problem remains diagnosis CAPS, which is inconceivable without the determination of AFA. The latter should be mandatory for all pregnant women with preeclampsia habitual miscarriage, Premature detachment of normally situated placenta (PDNSP, genital herpes history

  18. Multidimensional poverty and catastrophic health spending in the mountainous regions of Myanmar, Nepal and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, Sanjay K; Agrawal, Nand Kishor; Mahapatra, Bidhubhusan; Choudhury, Dhrupad; Tuladhar, Sabarnee; Holmgren, E Valdemar

    2017-01-18

    not significant. The multidimensionally poor in the poorer regions are more likely to face health shocks and are less likely to afford professional health services. Increasing government spending on health and increasing households' access to health insurance can reduce catastrophic health spending and multidimensional poverty.

  19. What Is the Economic Burden of Subsidized HIV/AIDS Treatment Services on Patients in Nigeria and Is This Burden Catastrophic to Households?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enyi Etiaba

    Full Text Available A gap in knowledge exists regarding the economic burden on households of subsidized anti-retroviral treatment (ART programs in Nigeria. This is because patients also incur non-ART drug costs, which may constrain the delivery and utilisation of subsidized services.An exit survey of adults (18+years attending health facilities for HIV/AIDS treatment was conducted in three states in Nigeria (Adamawa, Akwa Ibom and Anambra. In the states, ART was fully subsidized but there were different payment modalities for other costs of treatment. Data was collected and analysed for direct and indirect costs of treatment of HIV/AIDS and co-morbidities' during out-and in-patient visits. The levels of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE were computed and disaggregated by state, socio-economic status (SES and urban-rural location of the respondents. Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE in this study measures the number of respondents whose monthly ART-related household expenditure (for in-patient and out-patient visits as a proportion of monthly non-food expenditure was greater than 40% and 10% respectively.The average out-patient and in-patient direct costs were $5.49 and $122.10 respectively. Transportation cost was the highest non-medical cost and it was higher than most medical costs. The presence of co-morbidities contributed to household costs. All the costs were catastrophic to households at 10% and 40% thresholds in the three states, to varying degrees. The poorest SES quintile had the highest incidence of CHE for out-patient costs (p<0.0001. Rural dwellers incurred more CHE for all categories of costs compared to urban dwellers, but the costs were statistically significant for only outpatient costs.ART subsidization is not enough to eliminate economic burden of treatment on HIV patients. Service decentralization to reduce travel costs, and subsidy on other components of HIV treatment services should be introduced to eliminate the persisting inequitable

  20. Vaginismus: heightened harm avoidance and pain catastrophizing cognitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J

    2012-02-01

    Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of increasing avoidance of (anticipated) pain. In vaginismus the anticipation of pain may give rise to catastrophic pain ideation. This may establish hypervigilance toward painful sexual stimuli, which consequently results in negative appraisal of sexual cues. This process could impair genital and sexual responding, intensify pain and trigger avoidance, which in turn may contribute to the onset and persistence of symptoms in vaginismus and to certain extent also in dyspareunia. To investigate whether women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by heightened levels of habitual pain catastrophic cognitions, together with higher levels of HA. This study consisted of three groups: a lifelong vaginismus group (N = 35, mean age = 28.4; standard deviation [SD] = 5.8), a dyspareunia group (N = 33, mean age = 26.7; SD = 6.8), and women without sexual complaints (N = 54, mean age = 26.5; SD = 6.7). HA scale of Cloninger's tridimensional personality questionnaire, and the pain catastrophizing scale. Specifically women inflicted with vaginismus showed significantly heightened levels of catastrophic pain cognitions compared with the other two groups, as well as significant enhanced HA vs. the control group, and a trend vs. the dyspareunia group. Both traits were shown to have cumulative predictive validity for the presence of vaginismus. This study focused on the personality traits of catastrophizing pain cognitions and HA in women with lifelong vaginismus. Our findings showed that indeed, women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by trait of HA interwoven with habitual pain catastrophizing cognitions. This study could help in the refinement of the current conceptualization and might shed

  1. Development of reduced kinetic schemes for the description of pollutants formation in combustion; Mise au point de schemas cinetiques reduits pour decrire la formation des polluants dans la combustion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferrendier, M.

    1998-12-17

    The typical dimensions of details chemical-kinetic mechanisms proposed to describe combustion systems are too large for multi-dimensional computations applications. The objective of reduction methods is to construct low-dimensional schemes that can be incorporated in industrial codes. We consider here a new class of methods based on a mathematical analysis of the detailed chemical-kinetic mechanisms, and the identification of a low-dimensional manifold that describes the slow dynamics of the chemical system. The mathematical reduction methods considered in this work are the Intrinsic Low Dimensional Manifold (ILDM) method proposed by Maas and Pope (1992), and the Singular Perturbation (PS) method proposed by Duchene and Rouchon (1996). The domain of validity of the ILDM or PS reduced schemes is limited to a high temperature domain T {>=} T{sub c}. This result suggests that ignition is out of the domain of application of reduced mechanisms. In the case of a CO/H{sub 2}/N{sub 2}-air combustion system, and using a two-dimensional slow manifold, we find T{sub c} {approx} 750 K. We also find that for that particular system, 2 progress variables are sufficient for an accurate description of the structure and the velocity of a laminar premixed flame. In the case of a CH{sub 4}-air combustion system, and using a two-dimensional slow manifold, we find T{sub c}{approx}1500 K. We also find that 2 progress variables are insufficient for an accurate description of the structure and the velocity of a laminar premixed flame. The study of the different NO formation mechanisms show that the thermal NO mechanism (the Zeldovich mechanism) is dominant for premixed configurations with lean or stoichiometric conditions ({phi}){>=}1.2), and for non-premixed configurations at high temperatures and high pressures (T{sub air}{>=}1000 K, P {>=} 10 bars). Under these conditions, the MPKIVA sub model used to describe NO formation in the IFP version of the KIVA code performs reasonably well. An

  2. Catastrophes et consommation des substances psychoactives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivokapić Žilijeta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available (francuski Les catastrophes, les accidents, les stress, les traumatismes sont des expériences négatives de vie accompagnées de changements physiologiques, cognitifs, émotionnels et comportementaux. Les stratégies les plus courantes inefficaces à résoudre les expériences de vie négatives sont: l' agression - ouverte (physique et / ou verbale, passive et latente, le retrait social, le placage, la dépression, l'impuissance, l' isolement et l' abus de médicaments, en particulier de drogues. Les personnes se trouvant dans des situations stressantes essayent de s' aider elles-mêmes souvent en recourant à des substances qui procurent une amélioration de leur état et suppriment le malaise momentané. Cette 'thérapie par auto-thérapie' comporte de graves risques La personne qui, après une période de consommation de ces substances devenaient dépendante, manifeste des changements visibles au niveau physique et psychologique. Elle se dérobe à ses obligations, rompt avec les activités auxquelles elle prenait plaisir autrefois de même qu' avec ses loisirs et ses intérêts; elle change des amis, ses relations familiales et amicales deviennent pauvres et remplies de nombreux conflits; elle devient moins critique et plus manipulative, commence à mentir, trompe pour dissimuler sa toxicomanie, rejoint un groupe de ses semblables, se livre à des activités criminogènes, de plus en plus se dégrade physiquement. L' alcool qui, étant le plus accessible et par conséquent généralement 'la première mesure d' auto-thérapie', a un impact particulièrement dévastateur sur l' organisme sensible au point de vue psycho-physique. Nous assistons à de nombreuses difficultés et des problèmes qui, à la suite de la consommation d' alcool, aggravent ceux liés à des expériences des événements traumatisants. De même l' efficacité de certains comprimés de réduire les tensions ou d' améliorer l' état du patient conduit fréquemment

  3. Classical and quantum fold catastrophe in the presence of axial symmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhont, G.; Zhilinskií, B. I.

    2008-11-01

    We introduce a family of Hamiltonians with two degrees of freedom, axial symmetry and complete integrability. The potential function depends on coordinates and one control parameter. A fold catastrophe typically occurs in such a family of potentials and its consequences on the global dynamics are investigated through the energy-momentum map which defines the singular fibration of the four-dimensional phase space. The two inequivalent local canonical forms of the catastrophe are presented: the first case corresponds to the appearance of a second sheet in the image of the energy-momentum map while the second case is associated with the breaking of an already existing second sheet. A special effort is placed on the description of the singularities. In particular, the existence of cuspidal tori is related to a second-order contact point between the energy level set and the reduced phase space. The quantum mechanical aspects of the changes induced by the fold catastrophe are investigated with the quantum eigenstates computed for an octic potential and are interpreted through the quantum-classical correspondence. We note that the singularity exposed in this paper is not an obstruction to a global definition of action-angle variables.

  4. Finite Boltzmann schemes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sman, van der R.G.M.

    2006-01-01

    In the special case of relaxation parameter = 1 lattice Boltzmann schemes for (convection) diffusion and fluid flow are equivalent to finite difference/volume (FD) schemes, and are thus coined finite Boltzmann (FB) schemes. We show that the equivalence is inherent to the homology of the

  5. Protecting patients with cardiovascular diseases from catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment by health finance reform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jing; Liabsuetrakul, Tippawan; Fan, Yancun; McNeil, Edward

    2015-12-01

    To compare the incidences of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) and impoverishment, the risk protection offered by two health financial reforms and to explore factors associated with CHE and impoverishment among patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in rural Inner Mongolia, China. Cross-sectional study conducted in 2014 in rural Inner Mongolia, China. Patients with CVDs aged over 18 years residing in the sample areas for at least one year were eligible. The definitions of CHE and impoverishment recommended by WHO were adopted. The protection of CHE and impoverishment was compared between the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) alone and NCMS plus National Essential Medicines Scheme (NEMS) using the percentage change of incidences for CHE and impoverishment. Logistic regression was used to explore factors associated with CHE and impoverishment. The incidences of CHE and impoverishment under NCMS plus NEMS were 11.26% and 3.30%, respectively, which were lower than those under NCMS alone. The rates of protection were higher among households with patients with CVDs covered by NCMS plus NEMS (25.68% and 34.65%, respectively). NCMS plus NEMS could protect the poor households more from CHE but not impoverishment. NCMS plus NEMS protected more than one-fourth of households from CHE and more than one-third from impoverishment. NCMS plus NEMS was more effective at protecting households with patients with CVDs from CHE and impoverishment than NCMS alone. An integration of NCMS with NEMS should be expanded. However, further strategies to minimise catastrophic health expenditure after this health finance reform are still needed. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firat, Elke; Gaedicke, Simone; Tsurumi, Chizuko; Esser, Norbert; Weyerbrock, Astrid; Niedermann, Gabriele

    2011-01-01

    Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR). Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs) and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF) and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2). Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest the importance of delayed apoptosis, associated mitotic catastrophe, and cellular proliferation for γIR-induced death of

  7. A fast resonance interference treatment scheme with subgroup method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, L.; He, Q.; Wu, H.; Zu, T.; Shen, W.

    2015-01-01

    A fast Resonance Interference Factor (RIF) scheme is proposed to treat the resonance interference effects between different resonance nuclides. This scheme utilizes the conventional subgroup method to evaluate the self-shielded cross sections of the dominant resonance nuclide in the heterogeneous system and the hyper-fine energy group method to represent the resonance interference effects in a simplified homogeneous model. In this paper, the newly implemented scheme is compared to the background iteration scheme, the Resonance Nuclide Group (RNG) scheme and the conventional RIF scheme. The numerical results show that the errors of the effective self-shielded cross sections are significantly reduced by the fast RIF scheme compared with the background iteration scheme and the RNG scheme. Besides, the fast RIF scheme consumes less computation time than the conventional RIF schemes. The speed-up ratio is ~4.5 for MOX pin cell problems. (author)

  8. Forecasting giant, catastrophic slope collapse: lessons from Vajont, Northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Petley, David N.

    2003-08-01

    Rapid, giant landslides, or sturzstroms, are among the most powerful natural hazards on Earth. They have minimum volumes of ˜10 6-10 7 m 3 and, normally preceded by prolonged intervals of accelerating creep, are produced by catastrophic and deep-seated slope collapse (loads ˜1-10 MPa). Conventional analyses attribute rapid collapse to unusual mechanisms, such as the vaporization of ground water during sliding. Here, catastrophic collapse is related to self-accelerating rock fracture, common in crustal rocks at loads ˜1-10 MPa and readily catalysed by circulating fluids. Fracturing produces an abrupt drop in resisting stress. Measured stress drops in crustal rock account for minimum sturzstrom volumes and rapid collapse accelerations. Fracturing also provides a physical basis for quantitatively forecasting catastrophic slope failure.

  9. Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    1994-01-01

    Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

  10. Stagewise cognitive development: an application of catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Maas, H L; Molenaar, P C

    1992-07-01

    In this article an overview is given of traditional methodological approaches to stagewise cognitive developmental research. These approaches are evaluated and integrated on the basis of catastrophe theory. In particular, catastrophe theory specifies a set of common criteria for testing the discontinuity hypothesis proposed by Piaget. Separate criteria correspond to distinct methods used in cognitive developmental research. Such criteria are, for instance, the detection of spurts in development, bimodality of test scores, and increased variability of responses during transitional periods. When a genuine stage transition is present, these criteria are expected to be satisfied. A revised catastrophe model accommodating these criteria is proposed for the stage transition in cognitive development from the preoperational to the concrete operational stage.

  11. Socioeconomic inequality in catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boing, Alexandra Crispim; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de; Posenato, Leila Garcia; Peres, Karen Glazer

    2014-08-01

    To analyze the evolution of catastrophic health expenditure and the inequalities in such expenses, according to the socioeconomic characteristics of Brazilian families. Data from the National Household Budget 2002-2003 (48,470 households) and 2008-2009 (55,970 households) were analyzed. Catastrophic health expenditure was defined as excess expenditure, considering different methods of calculation: 10.0% and 20.0% of total consumption and 40.0% of the family's capacity to pay. The National Economic Indicator and schooling were considered as socioeconomic characteristics. Inequality measures utilized were the relative difference between rates, the rates ratio, and concentration index. The catastrophic health expenditure varied between 0.7% and 21.0%, depending on the calculation method. The lowest prevalences were noted in relation to the capacity to pay, while the highest, in relation to total consumption. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure increased by 25.0% from 2002-2003 to 2008-2009 when the cutoff point of 20.0% relating to the total consumption was considered and by 100% when 40.0% or more of the capacity to pay was applied as the cut-off point. Socioeconomic inequalities in the catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil between 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 increased significantly, becoming 5.20 times higher among the poorest and 4.17 times higher among the least educated. There was an increase in catastrophic health expenditure among Brazilian families, principally among the poorest and those headed by the least-educated individuals, contributing to an increase in social inequality.

  12. Impact of Osteoarthritis on Household Catastrophic Health Expenditures in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyoungyoung; Cho, Soo-Kyung; Kim, Daehyun; Kim, Dalho; Jung, Sun-Young; Jang, Eun Jin; Sung, Yoon-Kyoung

    2018-05-21

    Osteoarthritis (OA) is a disease of old age whose prevalence is increasing. This study explored the impact of OA on household catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) in Korea. We used data on 5,200 households from the Korea Health Panel Survey in 2013 and estimated annual living expenses and out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Household CHE was defined when a household's total OOP health payments exceeded 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40% of the household's capacity to pay. To compare the OOP payments of households with OA individuals and those without OA, OA households were matched 1:1 with households containing a member with other chronic disease such as neoplasm, hypertension, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, or osteoporosis. The impact of OA on CHE was determined by multivariable logistic analysis. A total of 1,289 households were included, and households with and without OA patients paid mean annual OOP payments of $2,789 and $2,607, respectively. The prevalence of household CHE at thresholds of 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40% were higher in households with OA patients than in those without OA patients ( P < 0.001). The presence of OA patients in each household contributed significantly to CHE at thresholds of 10% (odds ratio [OR], 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.87), 20% (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.01-1.66), and 30% (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.05-1.78), but not of 40% (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.87-1.57). The presence of OA patients in Korean households is significantly related to CHE. Policy makers should try to reduce OOP payments in households with OA patients.

  13. Clinical Pain Catastrophizing in Women With Migraine and Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, Dale S; Buse, Dawn C; Lipton, Richard B; Thomas, J Graham; Rathier, Lucille; Roth, Julie; Pavlovic, Jelena M; Evans, E Whitney; Wing, Rena R

    2015-01-01

    Obesity is related to migraine. Maladaptive pain coping strategies (eg, pain catastrophizing) may provide insight into this relationship. In women with migraine and obesity, we cross-sectionally assessed: (1) prevalence of clinical catastrophizing; (2) characteristics of those with and without clinical catastrophizing; and (3) associations of catastrophizing with headache features. Obese women migraineurs seeking weight loss treatment (n = 105) recorded daily migraine activity for 1 month via smartphone and completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Clinical catastrophizing was defined as total PCS score ≥30. The six-item Headache Impact Test (HIT-6), 12-item Allodynia Symptom Checklist (ASC-12), Headache Management Self-Efficacy Scale (HMSE), and assessments for depression (Centers for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) and anxiety (seven-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale) were also administered. Using PCS scores and body mass index (BMI) as predictors in linear regression, we modeled a series of headache features (ie, headache days, HIT-6, etc) as outcomes. One quarter (25.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 17.2-34.1%) of participants met criteria for clinical catastrophizing: they had higher BMI (37.9 ± 7.5 vs 34.4 ± 5.7 kg/m(2) , P = .035); longer migraine attack duration (160.8 ± 145.0 vs 97.5 ± 75.2 hours/month, P = .038); higher HIT-6 scores (68.7 ± 4.6 vs 64.5 ± 3.9, P duration (β = 0.390, P duration, higher pain sensitivity, greater headache impact, and lower headache management self-efficacy. In all participants, PCS scores were related to several migraine characteristics, above and beyond the effects of obesity. Prospective studies are needed to determine sequence and mechanisms of relationships between catastrophizing, obesity, and migraine. © 2015 American Headache Society.

  14. Infrared catastrophe averted by Hertz potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwanziger, D.

    1979-01-01

    A computational scheme for quantum electrodynamics is developed from first principles in which infrared divergences are not encountered. The gist of the method is that the photon propagator is properly -ig/sub munu/(k 2 + iepsilon) -1 (1/2k/sup sigma/partial/partialk/sup sigma/)/sub w/ln(-lambda -2 k 2 - iepsilon). Here lambda is a parameter which plays the role of the photon mass, but which cancels out of cross sections for any finite value (lambda → 0 is never taken). The subscript w means weak derivative, so a partial integration on k, with neglect of boundary terms, is always understood in Feynman integrals. This makes integrals converge which otherwise would be logarithmically divergent. For sufficiently convergent integrals the partial integration may be undone and the conventional value results because (1/2k/sup sigma/partial/partialk/sup sigma/)ln(-lambda -2 k 2 - iepsilon) = 1. It is shown that the above propagator is not merely an artificial device, but results if the vector potential A/sup μ/ is derived from a Hertz potential π/sup lambdamu/ = -π/sup mulambda/, A/sup μ/ = partial/sub μ/π/sup lambdamu/, which is a local field. The real-photon infrared divergences do not occur when the integral over real photons is obtained from the discontinuity in the k 0 plane of the above propagator. A contribution to the real-photon integral at strictly zero frequency, resembling a third polarization state of the photon, is isolated and evaluated explicitly. The S matrix and physical subspaces are defined

  15. A quantitative study on factors influencing enrolment of dairy farmers in a community health insurance scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greef, Tineke de Groot-de; Monareng, Lydia V; Roos, Janetta H

    2016-12-09

    Access to affordable and effective health care is a challenge in low- and middle- income countries. Out-of-pocket expenditure for health care is a major cause of impoverishment. One way to facilitate access and overcome catastrophic expenditure is through a health insurance mechanism, whereby risks are shared and financial inputs pooled by way of contributions. This study examined factors that influenced the enrolment status of dairy farmers in Western Kenya to a community health insurance (CHI) scheme. Quantitative, cross-sectional research was used to describe factors influencing the enrolment in the CHI scheme. Quota and convenience sampling was used, recruiting a sample of 135 farmers who supply milk to a dairy cooperation. Data were collected using a structured interview schedule and analysed using Stata SE, Data Analysis and Statistical Software, Version 12. Factors influencing non-enrolment were identified as affordability (40%; n = 47), unfamiliarity with the management of the scheme (37%; n = 44) and a lack of understanding about the scheme (41%; n = 48). An exploratory factor analysis was used to reduce the variables to two factors: information provision and understanding community health insurance (CHI). Logistic regression identified factors associated with enrolment in the Tanykina Community Healthcare Plan (TCHP). Supplies of less than six litres of milk per day (OR: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.06-0.84) and information provision (OR: 8.77; 95% CI: 2.25-34.16) were significantly associated with enrolment in the TCHP. Nearly 30% (29.6%; n = 40) of the respondents remarked that TCHP is expensive and 17% (n = 23) asked for more education on CHI and TCHP in an open-ended question. Recommendations related to marketing strategies, financial approach, information provision and further research were outlined to be made to the management of the TCHP as well as to those involved in public health.

  16. Boosting flood warning schemes with fast emulator of detailed hydrodynamic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellos, V.; Carbajal, J. P.; Leitao, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Floods are among the most destructive catastrophic events and their frequency has incremented over the last decades. To reduce flood impact and risks, flood warning schemes are installed in flood prone areas. Frequently, these schemes are based on numerical models which quickly provide predictions of water levels and other relevant observables. However, the high complexity of flood wave propagation in the real world and the need of accurate predictions in urban environments or in floodplains hinders the use of detailed simulators. This sets the difficulty, we need fast predictions that meet the accuracy requirements. Most physics based detailed simulators although accurate, will not fulfill the speed demand. Even if High Performance Computing techniques are used (the magnitude of required simulation time is minutes/hours). As a consequence, most flood warning schemes are based in coarse ad-hoc approximations that cannot take advantage a detailed hydrodynamic simulation. In this work, we present a methodology for developing a flood warning scheme using an Gaussian Processes based emulator of a detailed hydrodynamic model. The methodology consists of two main stages: 1) offline stage to build the emulator; 2) online stage using the emulator to predict and generate warnings. The offline stage consists of the following steps: a) definition of the critical sites of the area under study, and the specification of the observables to predict at those sites, e.g. water depth, flow velocity, etc.; b) generation of a detailed simulation dataset to train the emulator; c) calibration of the required parameters (if measurements are available). The online stage is carried on using the emulator to predict the relevant observables quickly, and the detailed simulator is used in parallel to verify key predictions of the emulator. The speed gain given by the emulator allows also to quantify uncertainty in predictions using ensemble methods. The above methodology is applied in real

  17. Assessing the impoverishing effects, and factors associated with the incidence of catastrophic health care payments in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barasa, Edwine W; Maina, Thomas; Ravishankar, Nirmala

    2017-02-06

    Monitoring the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure, as well as the impoverishing effects of out of pocket costs to access healthcare, is a key part of benchmarking Kenya's progress towards reducing the financial burden that households experience when accessing healthcare. The study relies on data from the nationally-representative Kenya Household Expenditure and Utilization Survey conducted in 2013 (n =33,675). We undertook health equity analysis to estimate the incidence and intensity of catastrophic expenditure. Households were considered to have incurred catastrophic expenditures if their annual out of-pocket health expenditures exceeded 40% of their annual non-food expenditure. We assessed the impoverishing effects of out of pocket payments using the Kenya national poverty line. We distinguished between direct payments for healthcare such as payments for consultation, medicines, medical procedures, and total healthcare expenditure that includes direct healthcare payments and the cost of transportation to and from health facilities. We used logistic regression analysis to explore the factors associated with the incidence of catastrophic expenditures. When only direct payments to healthcare providers were considered, the incidence of catastrophic expenditures was 4.52%. When transport costs are included, the incidence of catastrophic expenditure increased to 6.58%. 453,470 Kenyans are pushed into poverty annually as a result of direct payments for healthcare. When the cost of transport is included, that number increases by more than one third to 619,541. Unemployment of the household head, presence of an elderly person, a person with a chronic ailment, a large household size, lower household social-economic status, and residence in marginalized regions of the country are significantly associated with increased odds of incurring catastrophic expenditures. Kenyan policy makers should prioritize extending pre-payment mechanisms to more

  18. Pain catastrophizing predicts verbal expression among children with chronic pain and their mothers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelby L Langer

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examined intra- and inter-personal associations between pain catastrophizing and verbal expression in 70 children with recurrent abdominal pain and their mothers. Participants independently completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Mothers and children then talked about the child’s pain. Speech was categorized using a linguistic analysis program. Catastrophizing was positively associated with the use of negative emotion words by both mothers and children. In addition, mothers’ catastrophizing was positively associated with both mothers’ and children’s anger word usage, whereas children’s catastrophizing was inversely associated with mothers’ anger word usage. Findings extend the literature on behavioral and interpersonal aspects of catastrophizing.

  19. Three Solvable Matrix Models of a Quantum Catastrophe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Levai, G.; Růžička, František; Znojil, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 9 (2014), s. 2875-2890 ISSN 0020-7748 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum theory * PT symmetry * Finite-dimensional non-Hermitian Hamiltonians * exceptional-point localization * quantum theory of catastrophes * methods of computer algebra Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2014

  20. Catastrophe Theory: A Unified Model for Educational Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryer, Patricia; Elton, Lewis

    1990-01-01

    Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's theory of motivation at work was used to create a model of change that unifies and extends Lewin's two separate stage and force field models. This new model is used to analyze the behavior of academics as they adapt to the changing university environment. (Author/MLW)

  1. Laboratory tests of catastrophic disruption of rotating bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. J. W.; Burchell, M. J.

    2017-11-01

    The results of catastrophic disruption experiments on static and rotating targets are reported. The experiments used cement spheres of diameter 10 cm as the targets. Impacts were by mm sized stainless steel spheres at speeds of between 1 and 7.75 km s-1. Energy densities (Q) in the targets ranged from 7 to 2613 J kg-1. The experiments covered both the cratering and catastrophic disruption regimes. For static, i.e. non-rotating targets the critical energy density for disruption (Q*, the value of Q when the largest surviving target fragment has a mass equal to one half of the pre-impact target mass) was Q* = 1447 ± 90 J kg-1. For rotating targets (median rotation frequency of 3.44 Hz) we found Q* = 987 ± 349 J kg-1, a reduction of 32% in the mean value. This lower value of Q* for rotating targets was also accompanied by a larger scatter on the data, hence the greater uncertainty. We suggest that in some cases the rotating targets behaved as static targets, i.e. broke up with the same catastrophic disruption threshold, but in other cases the rotation helped the break up causing a lower catastrophic disruption threshold, hence both the lower value of Q* and the larger scatter on the data. The fragment mass distributions after impact were similar in both the static and rotating target experiments with similar slopes.

  2. The application of catastrophe theory to medical image analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and

  3. The Application of Catastrophe Theory to Medical Image Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, Arjan; Florack, L.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of

  4. The application of catastrophe theory to image analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the inuence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and the

  5. Vaginismus : Heightened Harm Avoidance and Pain Catastrophizing Cognitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L.; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J.

    Introduction. Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of

  6. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  7. Scheme Program Documentation Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørmark, Kurt

    2004-01-01

    are separate and intended for different documentation purposes they are related to each other in several ways. Both tools are based on XML languages for tool setup and for documentation authoring. In addition, both tools rely on the LAML framework which---in a systematic way---makes an XML language available...... as named functions in Scheme. Finally, the Scheme Elucidator is able to integrate SchemeDoc resources as part of an internal documentation resource....

  8. Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-11-01

    Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Does User Fee Removal Policy Provide Financial Protection from Catastrophic Health Care Payments? Evidence from Zambia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Masiye

    Full Text Available Out-of-pocket payments in health care have been shown to impose significant burden on households in Sub-Saharan Africa, leading to constrained access to health care and impoverishment. In an effort to reduce the financial burden imposed on households by user fees, some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have abolished user fees in the health sector. Zambia is one of few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to abolish user fees in primary health care facilities with a view to alleviating financial burden of out-of-pocket payments among the poor. The main aim of this paper was to examine the extent and patterns of financial protection from fees following the decision to abolish user fees in public primary health facilities.Our analysis is based on a nationally representative health expenditure and utilization survey conducted in 2014. We calculated the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure based on households' out-of-pocket payments during a visit as a percentage of total household consumption expenditure. We further show the intensity of the problem of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE experienced by households.Our analysis show that following the removal of user fees, a majority of patients who visited public health facilities benefitted from free care at the point of use. Further, seeking care at public primary health facilities is associated with a reduced likelihood of incurring CHE after controlling for economic wellbeing and other covariates. However, 10% of households are shown to suffer financial catastrophe as a result of out-of-pocket payments. Further, there is considerable inequality in the incidence of CHE whereby the poorest expenditure quintile experienced a much higher incidence.Despite the removal of user fees at primary health care level, CHE is high among the poorest sections of the population. This study also shows that cost of transportation is mainly responsible for limiting the protective effectiveness of

  10. The Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale: a useful instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miró, Jordi; Nieto, Rubén; Huguet, Anna

    2008-05-01

    The main aims of this work were to test the psychometric properties of the Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) and to assess the usefulness of the scale when used with whiplash patients. This article reports results from 2 complementary studies. In the first one, the PCS was administered to 280 students and 146 chronic pain patients to examine the psychometric properties of a new Catalan version of the instrument. A confirmatory factor analysis supported a second-order structure, in which 3 second-order factors (ie, rumination, helplessness, and magnification) load in a higher-order factor (ie, catastrophizing). The reliability of the Catalan version was supported by an acceptable internal consistency and test-retest values. Validity was supported by the correlations found among the PCS and pain intensity, pain interference, and depression. The objective of the second study was to evaluate the PCS when used with whiplash patients. In this second study, 141 patients with whiplash disorders participated. In general, the psychometric properties of the PCS were found appropriate, with factor analysis supporting the structure described in patients with chronic pain. Our data suggest that the PCS is a good instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients. The usefulness of the PCS in whiplash disorders has been explored in this study. Results of our work show that the PCS can be a very useful tool to assess catastrophic thinking about pain in whiplash patients.

  11. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome mimicking a malignant pancreatic tumour--a case report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wissen, S.; Bastiaansen, B. A. J.; Stroobants, A. K.; van den Dool, E. J.; Idu, M. M.; Levi, M. [=Marcel M.; Stroes, E. S. G.

    2008-01-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is characterised by rapid onset thromboses, often resistant to conventional anticoagulant treatment, and resulting in life threatening multiple organ dysfunction. The diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome may be difficult, predominantly due to

  12. Multiresolution signal decomposition schemes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Goutsias (John); H.J.A.M. Heijmans (Henk)

    1998-01-01

    textabstract[PNA-R9810] Interest in multiresolution techniques for signal processing and analysis is increasing steadily. An important instance of such a technique is the so-called pyramid decomposition scheme. This report proposes a general axiomatic pyramid decomposition scheme for signal analysis

  13. Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

    2017-04-01

    Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

  14. Adaptive protection scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sitharthan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at modelling an electronically coupled distributed energy resource with an adaptive protection scheme. The electronically coupled distributed energy resource is a microgrid framework formed by coupling the renewable energy source electronically. Further, the proposed adaptive protection scheme provides a suitable protection to the microgrid for various fault conditions irrespective of the operating mode of the microgrid: namely, grid connected mode and islanded mode. The outstanding aspect of the developed adaptive protection scheme is that it monitors the microgrid and instantly updates relay fault current according to the variations that occur in the system. The proposed adaptive protection scheme also employs auto reclosures, through which the proposed adaptive protection scheme recovers faster from the fault and thereby increases the consistency of the microgrid. The effectiveness of the proposed adaptive protection is studied through the time domain simulations carried out in the PSCAD⧹EMTDC software environment.

  15. Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

  16. Catastrophic health expenditure among households with members with special diseases: A case study in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradi, Ghobad; Safari, Hossein; Piroozi, Bakhtiar; Qanbari, Laila; Farshadi, Salahadin; Qasri, Homan; Farhadifar, Fariba

    2017-01-01

    Background: One of the main goals of health systems is to protect people against financial risks associated with diseases that can be catastrophic for patients. In 2014, Health Sector Evolution Plan (HSEP) was implemented in Iran; one of the objectives of HSEP was to reduce out-of-pocket payments and provide more financial protection for people. Therefore, the present study aimed at exploring the likelihood of facing catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) among households with members suffering from dialysis, kidney transplant, or multiple sclerosis (MS) after the implementation of HSEP. Methods: A total number of 385 households were selected using stratified random sampling and were asked to complete the World Health Survey questionnaire through telephone conversations. As outlined by the World Health Organization (WHO), when household out-of-pocket expense for health services is ≥40% of its capacity to pay, then that household is considered to be facing CHE. Furthermore, determinants of CHE were identified using logistic regression. Results: The percentage of facing catastrophic health care expenditures for households with a MS, dialysis, and kidney transplant patient was 20.6%, 18.7%, and 13.8%, respectively. Results of logistic regression analysis revealed that patient's economic status, level of education, supplementary insurance status, type of disease, multiple members with special diseases in the household, rural residence, use of inpatient, dental, and rehabilitation services were effective factors for determining the likelihood of facing CHE. Conclusion: Despite the implementation of HSEP, the percentage of CHE is still high for households that have members who suffer from special diseases. However, basic health insurance packages should be amended and more cost-sharing exemptions should be granted to provide more financial protection for the vulnerable households.

  17. Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruhrmann, G.; Kohring, M.

    1997-01-01

    Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.) [de

  18. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

  19. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  20. Effects of microtubule mechanics on hydrolysis and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Müller, N; Kierfeld, J

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a model for microtubule (MT) mechanics containing lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments, bending rigidity of dimers, and repulsive interactions between protofilaments modeling steric constraints to investigate the influence of mechanical forces on hydrolysis and catastrophes. We use the allosteric dimer model, where tubulin dimers are characterized by an equilibrium bending angle, which changes from 0 ∘ to 22 ∘ by hydrolysis of a dimer. This also affects the lateral interaction and bending energies and, thus, the mechanical equilibrium state of the MT. As hydrolysis gives rise to conformational changes in dimers, mechanical forces also influence the hydrolysis rates by mechanical energy changes modulating the hydrolysis rate. The interaction via the MT mechanics then gives rise to correlation effects in the hydrolysis dynamics, which have not been taken into account before. Assuming a dominant influence of mechanical energies on hydrolysis rates, we investigate the most probable hydrolysis pathways both for vectorial and random hydrolysis. Investigating the stability with respect to lateral bond rupture, we identify initiation configurations for catastrophes along the hydrolysis pathways and values for a lateral bond rupture force. If we allow for rupturing of lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments above this threshold force, our model exhibits avalanche-like catastrophe events. (papers)

  1. Catastrophic subsidence: An environmental hazard, shelby county, Alabama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamoreaux, Philip E.; Newton, J. G.

    1986-03-01

    Induced sinkholes (catastrophic subsidence) are those caused or accelerated by human activities These sinkholes commonly result from a water level decline due to pumpage Construction activities in a cone of depression greatly increases the likelihood of sinkhole occurrence Almost all occur where cavities develop in unconsolidated deposits overlying solution openings in carbonate rocks. Triggering mechanisms resulting from water level declines are (1) loss of buoyant support of the water, (2) increased gradient and water velocity, (3) water-level fluctuations, and (4) induced recharge Construction activities triggering sinkhole development include ditching, removing overburden, drilling, movement of heavy equipment, blasting and the diversion and impoundment of drainage Triggering mechanisms include piping, saturation, and loading Induced sinkholes resulting from human water development/management activities are most predictable in a youthful karst area impacted by groundwater withdrawals Shape, depth, and timing of catastrophic subsidence can be predicted in general terms Remote sensing techniques are used in prediction of locations of catastrophic subsidence. This provides a basis for design and relocation of structures such as a gas pipeline, dam, or building Utilization of techniques and a case history of the relocation of a pipeline are described

  2. Thermal catastrophe in the plasma sheet boundary layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.A.; Goertz, C.K.; Grossmann, W.

    1986-01-01

    This letter presents a first step towards a substorm model including particle heating and transport in the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL). The heating mechanism discussed is resonant absorption of Alfven waves. For some assumed MHD perturbation incident from the tail lobes onto the plasma sheet, the local heating rate in the PSBL has the form of a resonance function of the one-fluid plasma temperature. Balancing the local heating by convective transport of the heated plasma toward the central plasma sheet, and ''equation of state'' is found for the steady-state PSBL whose solution has the form of a mathematical catastrophe: at a critical value of a parameter containing the incident power flux, the local density, and the convection velocity, the equilibrium temperature jumps discontinuously. Associating this temperature increase with the abrupt onset of the substorm expansion phase, the catastrophe model indicates at least three ways in which the onset may be triggered. Several other consequences related to substorm dynamics are suggested by the simple catastrophe model

  3. Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leffer, T.N.

    2013-01-01

    The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

  4. The impact of anxiety and catastrophizing on interleukin-6 responses to acute painful stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lazaridou A

    2018-03-01

    (p<0.05.Conclusion: Under specific conditions (eg, application of a painful stressor, catastrophizing may be associated with amplified proinflammatory responses in patients with persistent pain. These findings suggest that psychosocial interventions that reduce negative pain-related cognitions may benefit patients’ inflammatory profiles. Keywords: anxiety, catastrophizing, chronic pain, interleukin-6

  5. The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voight, Barry

    1990-12-01

    This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

  6. Does the National Health Insurance Scheme provide financial protection to households in Ghana?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusi, Anthony; Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Asante, Felix A; Enemark, Ulrika

    2015-08-15

    Excessive healthcare payments can impede access to health services and also disrupt the welfare of households with no financial protection. Health insurance is expected to offer financial protection against health shocks. Ghana began the implementation of its National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) in 2004. The NHIS is aimed at removing the financial barrier to healthcare by limiting direct out-of-pocket health expenditures (OOPHE). The study examines the effect of the NHIS on OOPHE and how it protects households against catastrophic health expenditures. Data was obtained from a cross-sectional representative household survey involving 2,430 households from three districts across Ghana. All OOPHE associated with treatment seeking for reported illness in the household in the last 4 weeks preceding the survey were analysed and compared between insured and uninsured persons. The incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) among households were measured by the catastrophic health payment method. The relative effect of NHIS on the incidence of CHE in the household was estimated by multiple logistic regression analysis. About 36% of households reported at least one illness during the 4 weeks period. Insured patients had significantly lower direct OOPHE for out-patient and in-patient care compared to the uninsured. On financial protection, the incidence of CHE was lower among insured households (2.9%) compared to the partially insured (3.7%) and the uninsured (4.0%) at the 40% threshold. The incidence of CHE was however significantly lower among fully insured households (6.0%) which sought healthcare from NHIS accredited health facilities compared to the partially insured (10.1%) and the uninsured households (23.2%). The likelihood of a household incurring CHE was 4.2 times less likely for fully insured and 2.9 times less likely for partially insured households relative to being uninsured. The NHIS has however not completely eliminated OOPHE for the

  7. Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haicheng; Xu, Daolin; Wu, Yousheng

    2018-05-01

    Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.

  8. CSR schemes in agribusiness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pötz, Katharina Anna; Haas, Rainer; Balzarova, Michaela

    2013-01-01

    of schemes that can be categorized on focus areas, scales, mechanisms, origins, types and commitment levels. Research limitations/implications – The findings contribute to conceptual and empirical research on existing models to compare and analyse CSR standards. Sampling technique and depth of analysis limit......Purpose – The rise of CSR followed a demand for CSR standards and guidelines. In a sector already characterized by a large number of standards, the authors seek to ask what CSR schemes apply to agribusiness, and how they can be systematically compared and analysed. Design....../methodology/approach – Following a deductive-inductive approach the authors develop a model to compare and analyse CSR schemes based on existing studies and on coding qualitative data on 216 CSR schemes. Findings – The authors confirm that CSR standards and guidelines have entered agribusiness and identify a complex landscape...

  9. Tabled Execution in Scheme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willcock, J J; Lumsdaine, A; Quinlan, D J

    2008-08-19

    Tabled execution is a generalization of memorization developed by the logic programming community. It not only saves results from tabled predicates, but also stores the set of currently active calls to them; tabled execution can thus provide meaningful semantics for programs that seemingly contain infinite recursions with the same arguments. In logic programming, tabled execution is used for many purposes, both for improving the efficiency of programs, and making tasks simpler and more direct to express than with normal logic programs. However, tabled execution is only infrequently applied in mainstream functional languages such as Scheme. We demonstrate an elegant implementation of tabled execution in Scheme, using a mix of continuation-passing style and mutable data. We also show the use of tabled execution in Scheme for a problem in formal language and automata theory, demonstrating that tabled execution can be a valuable tool for Scheme users.

  10. Evaluating statistical cloud schemes

    OpenAIRE

    Grützun, Verena; Quaas, Johannes; Morcrette , Cyril J.; Ament, Felix

    2015-01-01

    Statistical cloud schemes with prognostic probability distribution functions have become more important in atmospheric modeling, especially since they are in principle scale adaptive and capture cloud physics in more detail. While in theory the schemes have a great potential, their accuracy is still questionable. High-resolution three-dimensional observational data of water vapor and cloud water, which could be used for testing them, are missing. We explore the potential of ground-based re...

  11. Gamma spectrometry; level schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blachot, J.; Bocquet, J.P.; Monnand, E.; Schussler, F.

    1977-01-01

    The research presented dealt with: a new beta emitter, isomer of 131 Sn; the 136 I levels fed through the radioactive decay of 136 Te (20.9s); the A=145 chain (β decay of Ba, La and Ce, and level schemes for 145 La, 145 Ce, 145 Pr); the A=47 chain (La and Ce, β decay, and the level schemes of 147 Ce and 147 Pr) [fr

  12. Scheme of energy utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-04-01

    This scheme defines the objectives relative to the renewable energies and the rational use of the energy in the framework of the national energy policy. It evaluates the needs and the potentialities of the regions and preconizes the actions between the government and the territorial organizations. The document is presented in four parts: the situation, the stakes and forecasts; the possible actions for new measures; the scheme management and the regional contributions analysis. (A.L.B.)

  13. The financial protection effect of Ghana National Health Insurance Scheme: evidence from a study in two rural districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Hong

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background One of the key functions of health insurance is to provide financial protection against high costs of health care, yet evidence of such protection from developing countries has been inconsistent. The current study uses the case of Ghana to contribute to the evidence pool about insurance's financial protection effects. It evaluates the impact of the country's National Health Insurance Scheme on households' out-of-pocket spending and catastrophic health expenditure. Methods We use data from a household survey conducted in two rural districts, Nkoranza and Offinso, in 2007, two years after the initiation of the Ghana National Health Insurance Scheme. To address the skewness of health expenditure data, the absolute amount of out-of-pocket spending is estimated using a two-part model. We also conduct a probit estimate of the likelihood of catastrophic health expenditures, defined at different thresholds relative to household income and non-food consumption expenditure. The analysis controls for chronic and self-assessed health conditions, which typically drive adverse selection in insurance. Results At the time of the survey, insurance coverage was 35 percent. Although the benefit package of insurance is generous, insured people still incurred out-of-pocket payment for care from informal sources and for uncovered drugs and tests at health facilities. Nevertheless, they paid significantly less than the uninsured. Insurance has been shown to have a protective effect against the financial burden of health care, reducing significantly the likelihood of incurring catastrophic payment. The effect is particularly remarkable among the poorest quintile of the sample. Conclusions Findings from this study confirm the positive financial protection effect of health insurance in Ghana. The effect is stronger among the poor group than among general population. The results are encouraging for many low income countries who are considering a

  14. Catastrophic floods may pave the way for increased genetic diversity in endemic artesian spring snail populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Worthington Wilmer

    Full Text Available The role of disturbance in the promotion of biological heterogeneity is widely recognised and occurs at a variety of ecological and evolutionary scales. However, within species, the impact of disturbances that decimate populations are neither predicted nor known to result in conditions that promote genetic diversity. Directly examining the population genetic consequences of catastrophic disturbances however, is rarely possible, as it requires both longitudinal genetic data sets and serendipitous timing. Our long-term study of the endemic aquatic invertebrates of the artesian spring ecosystem of arid central Australia has presented such an opportunity. Here we show a catastrophic flood event, which caused a near total population crash in an aquatic snail species (Fonscochlea accepta endemic to this ecosystem, may have led to enhanced levels of within species genetic diversity. Analyses of individuals sampled and genotyped from the same springs sampled both pre (1988-1990 and post (1995, 2002-2006 a devastating flood event in 1992, revealed significantly higher allelic richness, reduced temporal population structuring and greater effective population sizes in nearly all post flood populations. Our results suggest that the response of individual species to disturbance and severe population bottlenecks is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and may depend on both their ecology (whether they are resilient or resistant to disturbance and the stability of the environmental conditions (i.e. frequency and intensity of disturbances in which they have evolved.

  15. Evidence is good for your health system: policy reform to remedy catastrophic and impoverishing health spending in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knaul, Felicia Marie; Arreola-Ornelas, Héctor; Méndez-Carniado, Oscar; Bryson-Cahn, Chloe; Barofsky, Jeremy; Maguire, Rachel; Miranda, Martha; Sesma, Sergio

    2006-11-18

    Absence of financial protection in health is a recently diagnosed "disease" of health systems. The most obvious symptom is that families face economic ruin and poverty as a consequence of financing their health care. Mexico was one of the first countries to diagnose the problem, attribute it to lack of financial protection, and propose systemic therapy through health reform. In this article we assess how Mexico turned evidence on catastrophic and impoverishing health spending into a catalyst for institutional renovation through the reform that created Seguro Popular (Popular Health Insurance). We present 15-year trends on the evolution of catastrophic and impoverishing health spending, including evidence on how the situation is improving. The results of the Mexican experience suggest an important role for the organisation and financing of the health system in reducing impoverishment and protecting households during periods of individual and collective financial crisis.

  16. [Evidence is good for your health system: policy reform to remedy catastrophic and impoverishing health spending in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knaul, Felicia Marie; Arreola-Ornelas, Héctor; Méndez-Carniado, Oscar; Bryson-Cahn, Chloe; Barofsky, Jeremy; Maguire, Rachel; Miranda, Martha; Sesma, Sergio

    2007-01-01

    Absence of financial protection in health is a recently diagnosed "disease" of health systems. The most obvious symptom is that families face economic ruin and poverty as a consequence of financing their health care. Mexico was one of the first countries to diagnose the problem, attribute it to lack of financial protection, and propose systemic therapy through health reform. In this article we assess how Mexico turned evidence on catastrophic and impoverishing health spending into a catalyst for institutional renovation through the reform that created Seguro Popular de Salud (Popular Health Insurance). We present 15-year trends on the evolution of catastrophic and impoverishing health spending, including evidence on how the situation is improving. The results of the Mexican experience suggest an important role for the organisation and financing of the health system in reducing impoverishment and protecting households during periods of individual and collective financial crisis.

  17. [The effect of Seguro Popular de Salud on catastrophic and impoverishing expenditures in Mexico, 2004-2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knaul, Felicia Marie; Arreola-Ornelas, Héctor; Wong, Rebeca; Lugo-Palacios, David G; Méndez-Carniado, Oscar

    2018-01-01

    To determine the impact of Seguro Popular (SPS) on catastrophic and impoverishing household expenditures and on the financial protection of the Mexican health system. The propensity score matching (PSM) method was applied to the population affiliated to SPS to determine the program's attributable effect on health expenditure. This analysis uses the National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (ENIGH) during 2004-2012, conducted by Mexico's National Institute of Statistics andGeography (INEGI). It was found that SPS has a significant effect on reducing the likelihood that households will incur impoverishing expenditures. A negative effect on catastrophic expenditures was also found, but it was not statistically significant. This paper shows the effect that SPS, in particular health insurance, has as an instrument of financial protection. Future studies using longer periods of ENIGH data should analyze the persistence of high out-of-pocket expenditure.

  18. Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borisevich, Nikolaj

    2001-01-01

    The radioactive blow-outs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant catastrophe reached many states. The largest amount of them (according to experts' estimations - 70%) fell out on the Belarus territory. The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. More than 14 years have passed since the Chernobyl NPP accident but some of the problems caused by the catastrophe have not been solved. This is bound up, first of all, with a high collective dosage absorbed by the population, with difficulties in forecasting and prophylactics of remote radiological effects, with ecological and economic crisis. The consequences of the disaster greatly affect all the aspects of vital activities of the affected regions and the state as a whole. Destructive tendencies have been revealed in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population inhabiting the contaminated territory and resettled as well, require considerable optimisation. Negative factors of the Chernobyl catastrophe, which are significant for human health can be divided into two groups as follows: radiation-based, directly related to influence of ionising radiation and non radiation based, related to changes in habitat and prolonged psychological stress. The specific peculiarities of psychogenic disorders caused by the catastrophe are determined by the following reasons: insufficient knowledge of radiation effects; constant apprehension for the health and well-being of themselves and their families, especially children; unexpected change of the life stereotype (forced resettlement, the break of the former life, changing the place and the character of work, etc.); the necessity of constant keeping precaution measures and prophylactic

  19. Cambridge community Optometry Glaucoma Scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keenan, Jonathan; Shahid, Humma; Bourne, Rupert R; White, Andrew J; Martin, Keith R

    2015-04-01

    With a higher life expectancy, there is an increased demand for hospital glaucoma services in the United Kingdom. The Cambridge community Optometry Glaucoma Scheme (COGS) was initiated in 2010, where new referrals for suspected glaucoma are evaluated by community optometrists with a special interest in glaucoma, with virtual electronic review and validation by a consultant ophthalmologist with special interest in glaucoma. 1733 patients were evaluated by this scheme between 2010 and 2013. Clinical assessment is performed by the optometrist at a remote site. Goldmann applanation tonometry, pachymetry, monoscopic colour optic disc photographs and automated Humphrey visual field testing are performed. A clinical decision is made as to whether a patient has glaucoma or is a suspect, and referred on or discharged as a false positive referral. The clinical findings, optic disc photographs and visual field test results are transmitted electronically for virtual review by a consultant ophthalmologist. The number of false positive referrals from initial referral into the scheme. Of the patients, 46.6% were discharged at assessment and a further 5.7% were discharged following virtual review. Of the patients initially discharged, 2.8% were recalled following virtual review. Following assessment at the hospital, a further 10.5% were discharged after a single visit. The COGS community-based glaucoma screening programme is a safe and effective way of evaluating glaucoma referrals in the community and reducing false-positive referrals for glaucoma into the hospital system. © 2014 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

  20. Stochastic catastrophe theory and instabilities in plasma turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajkovic, Milan; Skoric, Milos

    2009-01-01

    Full text: A Langevin equation (LE) describing evolution of turbulence amplitude in plasma is analyzed from the aspect of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT) so that turbulent plasma is considered as a stochastic gradient system. According to SCT the dynamics of the system is completely determined by the stochastic potential function and the maximum likelihood estimates of stable and unstable equilibria are associated with the modes and anti-modes, respectively, of the system's stationary probability density function. First order phase transitions occur at degenerate equilibrium points and the potential function at these points may be represented in a generic way. Since the diffusion function of plasma LE is not constant the probability density function (pdf) is not a reliable estimator of the number of stable states. We show that the generalized pdf represented as the product of the stationary pdf and the diffusion function is a reliable estimator of the stable states and that it can be evaluated from the zero mean crossing analysis of plasma turbulence signal. Stochastic bifurcations, and particularly the sudden (catastrophic) ones, are recognized from the pdf's obtained by the zero crossing analysis and we illustrate the applications of SCT in plasma turbulence on data obtained from the MAST (Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) for low (L), high (H) and unstable dithering (L/H) confinement regimes. The relationship of the transformation invariant zero-crossing function and SCT is shown to provide important information about the nature of edge localized modes (ELMs) and L-H transition. Finally we show that ELMs occur as a result of catastrophic (hard) bifurcations ruling out the self-organized criticality scenario for their origin. (author)

  1. Catastrophic Disruption Threshold and Maximum Deflection from Kinetic Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, A. F.

    2017-12-01

    The use of a kinetic impactor to deflect an asteroid on a collision course with Earth was described in the NASA Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Analysis of Alternatives (2007) as the most mature approach for asteroid deflection and mitigation. The NASA DART mission will demonstrate asteroid deflection by kinetic impact at the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 65803 Didymos in October, 2022. The kinetic impactor approach is considered to be applicable with warning times of 10 years or more and with hazardous asteroid diameters of 400 m or less. In principle, a larger kinetic impactor bringing greater kinetic energy could cause a larger deflection, but input of excessive kinetic energy will cause catastrophic disruption of the target, leaving possibly large fragments still on collision course with Earth. Thus the catastrophic disruption threshold limits the maximum deflection from a kinetic impactor. An often-cited rule of thumb states that the maximum deflection is 0.1 times the escape velocity before the target will be disrupted. It turns out this rule of thumb does not work well. A comparison to numerical simulation results shows that a similar rule applies in the gravity limit, for large targets more than 300 m, where the maximum deflection is roughly the escape velocity at momentum enhancement factor β=2. In the gravity limit, the rule of thumb corresponds to pure momentum coupling (μ=1/3), but simulations find a slightly different scaling μ=0.43. In the smaller target size range that kinetic impactors would apply to, the catastrophic disruption limit is strength-controlled. A DART-like impactor won't disrupt any target asteroid down to significantly smaller size than the 50 m below which a hazardous object would not penetrate the atmosphere in any case unless it is unusually strong.

  2. Application of Catastrophe Risk Modelling to Evacuation Public Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, G.

    2009-04-01

    The decision by civic authorities to evacuate an area threatened by a natural hazard is especially fraught when the population in harm's way is extremely large, and where there is considerable uncertainty in the spatial footprint, scale, and strike time of a hazard event. Traditionally viewed as a hazard forecasting issue, civil authorities turn to scientists for advice on a potentially imminent dangerous event. However, the level of scientific confidence varies enormously from one peril and crisis situation to another. With superior observational data, meteorological and hydrological hazards are generally better forecast than geological hazards. But even with Atlantic hurricanes, the track and intensity of a hurricane can change significantly within a few hours. This complicated and delayed the decision to call an evacuation of New Orleans when threatened by Hurricane Katrina, and would present a severe dilemma if a major hurricane were appearing to head for New York. Evacuation needs to be perceived as a risk issue, requiring the expertise of catastrophe risk modellers as well as geoscientists. Faced with evidence of a great earthquake in the Indian Ocean in December 2004, seismologists were reluctant to give a tsunami warning without more direct sea observations. Yet, from a risk perspective, the risk to coastal populations would have warranted attempts at tsunami warning, even though there was significant uncertainty in the hazard forecast, and chance of a false alarm. A systematic coherent risk-based framework for evacuation decision-making exists, which weighs the advantages of an evacuation call against the disadvantages. Implicitly and qualitatively, such a cost-benefit analysis is undertaken by civic authorities whenever an evacuation is considered. With the progress in catastrophe risk modelling, such an analysis can be made explicit and quantitative, providing a transparent audit trail for the decision process. A stochastic event set, the core of a

  3. How To Respond to Catastrophic Events in Supply Chain Management

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Sooyeon

    2011-01-01

    In March of 2011, a massive earthquake and tsunami struck into Japan. Soon after this event, Toyota in the UK announced that their production had to been halted caused by disruption on supply chain relationship with Japan. Like this, a catastrophic event disturbs not only domestic situation but also international business. Supply chain is one of the most affected areas and also capable to control on business at the same time when a disaster occurs. In this work, how to respond supply chain sy...

  4. Catastrophic events leading to de facto limits on liability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, K.A.; Okrent, D.

    1977-05-01

    This study conducts an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability. Several potential situations are examined: dam rupture, aircraft crash into a sports stadium, chemical plant accident, shipping disaster, and a toxic drug disaster. All of these events are estimated to have probabilities per year similar to or larger than a major nuclear accident and they are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, such as insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  5. Catastrophes and nuclear accidents in the former USSR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robeau, D.

    2001-01-01

    In the former USSR, the nuclear safety, the environment protection and the preservation of workers and population health were not the first priority for the Soviet Union authorities. The fabrication of nuclear weapons, the construction of nuclear submarines and the production of an abundant energy source were the only goals at that time. This book describes and explains the circumstances of the nuclear catastrophes and accidents that have occurred during this era. It tries to estimate their impacts on populations and environment and their possible consequences in a near or far future. (J.S.)

  6. ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt

    2013-01-01

    origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...... induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells...

  7. The Chernobyl accident, a catastrophe or an eye-opener?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baarli, J.

    1989-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident is reviewed as to its cause, the way it was handled locally and the consequenses from released radioactivity. It is emphasized that the exposure from the released radioactivity, as to the effective dose equivalent and the committed dose equivalent is small and comparable with the dose equivalent from natural ionizing radiation near the accident, and only a few per cent of this value at more remote distances. It is concluded that the accident probably has been one of the greatest psychological catastrophes that we so far has experienced, but not so when referring to early deaths or radiation damage directly to individuals

  8. Cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking in a college population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smerz, Kelly E; Guastello, Stephen J

    2008-04-01

    A cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking behavior was developed and tested with attitude toward alcohol consumption and peer influence as the two control parameters. Similar models were also developed for frequency and quantity of alcohol use. Participants were 1,247 students who completed the Long Form of the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey. The results were strongest for the binge drinking criterion (R(2) = .90), compared to a linear model (R(2) = .34) that is usually associated with the Theory of Planned Behavior or Theory of Reasoned Action. The results have numerous implications for the development of interventions and for future research.

  9. Diversification through Catastrophe Bonds: Lessons from the Subprime Financial Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Carayannopoulos; M Fabricio Perez

    2015-01-01

    Are catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) zero-beta investments? Are they a valuable new source of diversification for investors? We study these questions by analysing the dynamic relations of CAT bond returns and the returns of the stock, corporate bond and government bond markets. Our multivariate GARCH model results provide evidence that CAT bonds are zero-beta assets only in non-crisis periods. We document that CAT bonds were not immune to the effects of the recent financial crisis. With the coll...

  10. Ponzi scheme diffusion in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Anding; Fu, Peihua; Zhang, Qinghe; Chen, Zhenyue

    2017-08-01

    Ponzi schemes taking the form of Internet-based financial schemes have been negatively affecting China's economy for the last two years. Because there is currently a lack of modeling research on Ponzi scheme diffusion within social networks yet, we develop a potential-investor-divestor (PID) model to investigate the diffusion dynamics of Ponzi scheme in both homogeneous and inhomogeneous networks. Our simulation study of artificial and real Facebook social networks shows that the structure of investor networks does indeed affect the characteristics of dynamics. Both the average degree of distribution and the power-law degree of distribution will reduce the spreading critical threshold and will speed up the rate of diffusion. A high speed of diffusion is the key to alleviating the interest burden and improving the financial outcomes for the Ponzi scheme operator. The zero-crossing point of fund flux function we introduce proves to be a feasible index for reflecting the fast-worsening situation of fiscal instability and predicting the forthcoming collapse. The faster the scheme diffuses, the higher a peak it will reach and the sooner it will collapse. We should keep a vigilant eye on the harm of Ponzi scheme diffusion through modern social networks.

  11. Optimal Face-Iris Multimodal Fusion Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omid Sharifi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Multimodal biometric systems are considered a way to minimize the limitations raised by single traits. This paper proposes new schemes based on score level, feature level and decision level fusion to efficiently fuse face and iris modalities. Log-Gabor transformation is applied as the feature extraction method on face and iris modalities. At each level of fusion, different schemes are proposed to improve the recognition performance and, finally, a combination of schemes at different fusion levels constructs an optimized and robust scheme. In this study, CASIA Iris Distance database is used to examine the robustness of all unimodal and multimodal schemes. In addition, Backtracking Search Algorithm (BSA, a novel population-based iterative evolutionary algorithm, is applied to improve the recognition accuracy of schemes by reducing the number of features and selecting the optimized weights for feature level and score level fusion, respectively. Experimental results on verification rates demonstrate a significant improvement of proposed fusion schemes over unimodal and multimodal fusion methods.

  12. Towards Symbolic Encryption Schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, Naveed; Jensen, Christian D.; Zenner, Erik

    2012-01-01

    , namely an authenticated encryption scheme that is secure under chosen ciphertext attack. Therefore, many reasonable encryption schemes, such as AES in the CBC or CFB mode, are not among the implementation options. In this paper, we report new attacks on CBC and CFB based implementations of the well......Symbolic encryption, in the style of Dolev-Yao models, is ubiquitous in formal security models. In its common use, encryption on a whole message is specified as a single monolithic block. From a cryptographic perspective, however, this may require a resource-intensive cryptographic algorithm......-known Needham-Schroeder and Denning-Sacco protocols. To avoid such problems, we advocate the use of refined notions of symbolic encryption that have natural correspondence to standard cryptographic encryption schemes....

  13. Compact Spreader Schemes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placidi, M.; Jung, J. -Y.; Ratti, A.; Sun, C.

    2014-07-25

    This paper describes beam distribution schemes adopting a novel implementation based on low amplitude vertical deflections combined with horizontal ones generated by Lambertson-type septum magnets. This scheme offers substantial compactness in the longitudinal layouts of the beam lines and increased flexibility for beam delivery of multiple beam lines on a shot-to-shot basis. Fast kickers (FK) or transverse electric field RF Deflectors (RFD) provide the low amplitude deflections. Initially proposed at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC) as tools for beam diagnostics and more recently adopted for multiline beam pattern schemes, RFDs offer repetition capabilities and a likely better amplitude reproducibility when compared to FKs, which, in turn, offer more modest financial involvements both in construction and operation. Both solutions represent an ideal approach for the design of compact beam distribution systems resulting in space and cost savings while preserving flexibility and beam quality.

  14. New analytic unitarization schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cudell, J.-R.; Predazzi, E.; Selyugin, O. V.

    2009-01-01

    We consider two well-known classes of unitarization of Born amplitudes of hadron elastic scattering. The standard class, which saturates at the black-disk limit includes the standard eikonal representation, while the other class, which goes beyond the black-disk limit to reach the full unitarity circle, includes the U matrix. It is shown that the basic properties of these schemes are independent of the functional form used for the unitarization, and that U matrix and eikonal schemes can be extended to have similar properties. A common form of unitarization is proposed interpolating between both classes. The correspondence with different nonlinear equations are also briefly examined.

  15. A comparison between index of entropy and catastrophe theory methods for mapping groundwater potential in an arid region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Abadi, Alaa M; Shahid, Shamsuddin

    2015-09-01

    In this study, index of entropy and catastrophe theory methods were used for demarcating groundwater potential in an arid region using weighted linear combination techniques in geographical information system (GIS) environment. A case study from Badra area in the eastern part of central of Iraq was analyzed and discussed. Six factors believed to have influence on groundwater occurrence namely elevation, slope, aquifer transmissivity and storativity, soil, and distance to fault were prepared as raster thematic layers to facility integration into GIS environment. The factors were chosen based on the availability of data and local conditions of the study area. Both techniques were used for computing weights and assigning ranks vital for applying weighted linear combination approach. The results of application of both modes indicated that the most influential groundwater occurrence factors were slope and elevation. The other factors have relatively smaller values of weights implying that these factors have a minor role in groundwater occurrence conditions. The groundwater potential index (GPI) values for both models were classified using natural break classification scheme into five categories: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. For validation of generated GPI, the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used. According to the obtained area under the curve, the catastrophe model with 78 % prediction accuracy was found to perform better than entropy model with 77 % prediction accuracy. The overall results indicated that both models have good capability for predicting groundwater potential zones.

  16. Equity of the premium of the Ghanaian National Health Insurance Scheme and the implications for achieving universal coverage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amporfu, Eugenia

    2013-01-07

    The Ghanaian National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) was introduced to provide access to adequate health care regardless of ability to pay. By law the NHIS is mandatory but because the informal sector has to make premium payment before they are enrolled, the authorities are unable to enforce mandatory nature of the scheme. The ultimate goal of the Scheme then is to provide all residents with access to adequate health care at affordable cost. In other words, the Scheme intends to achieve universal coverage. An important factor for the achievement of universal coverage is that revenue collection be equitable. The purpose of this study is to examine the vertical and horizontal equity of the premium collection of the Scheme. The Kakwani index method as well as graphical analysis was used to study the vertical equity. Horizontal inequity was measured through the effect of the premium on redistribution of ability to pay of members. The extent to which the premium could cause catastrophic expenditure was also examined. The results showed that revenue collection was both vertically and horizontally inequitable. The horizontal inequity had a greater effect on redistribution of ability to pay than vertical inequity. The computation of catastrophic expenditure showed that a small minority of the poor were likely to incur catastrophic expenditure from paying the premium a situation that could impede the achievement of universal coverage. The study provides recommendations to improve the inequitable system of premium payment to help achieve universal coverage.

  17. Equity of the premium of the Ghanaian national health insurance scheme and the implications for achieving universal coverage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amporfu Eugenia

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Ghanaian National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS was introduced to provide access to adequate health care regardless of ability to pay. By law the NHIS is mandatory but because the informal sector has to make premium payment before they are enrolled, the authorities are unable to enforce mandatory nature of the scheme. The ultimate goal of the Scheme then is to provide all residents with access to adequate health care at affordable cost. In other words, the Scheme intends to achieve universal coverage. An important factor for the achievement of universal coverage is that revenue collection be equitable. The purpose of this study is to examine the vertical and horizontal equity of the premium collection of the Scheme. The Kakwani index method as well as graphical analysis was used to study the vertical equity. Horizontal inequity was measured through the effect of the premium on redistribution of ability to pay of members. The extent to which the premium could cause catastrophic expenditure was also examined. The results showed that revenue collection was both vertically and horizontally inequitable. The horizontal inequity had a greater effect on redistribution of ability to pay than vertical inequity. The computation of catastrophic expenditure showed that a small minority of the poor were likely to incur catastrophic expenditure from paying the premium a situation that could impede the achievement of universal coverage. The study provides recommendations to improve the inequitable system of premium payment to help achieve universal coverage.

  18. Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

    2017-03-01

    The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

  19. Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

    2015-01-01

    Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

  20. Observing a catastrophic thermokarst lake drainage in northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.

    2015-01-01

    The formation and drainage of thermokarst lakes have reshaped ice-rich permafrost lowlands in the Arctic throughout the Holocene. North of Teshekpuk Lake, on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, thermokarst lakes presently occupy 22.5% of the landscape, and drained thermokarst lake basins occupy 61.8%. Analysis of remotely sensed imagery indicates that nine lakes (>10 ha) have drained in the 1,750 km2 study area between 1955 and 2014. The most recent lake drainage was observed using in situ data loggers providing information on the duration and magnitude of the event, and a nearby weather station provided information on the environmental conditions preceding the lake drainage. Lake 195 (L195), an 80 ha thermokarst lake with an estimated water volume of ~872,000 m3, catastrophically drained on 05 July 2014. Abundant winter snowfall and heavy early summer precipitation resulted in elevated lake water levels that likely promoted bank overtopping, thermo-erosion along an ice-wedge network, and formation of a 9 m wide, 2 m deep, and 70 m long drainage gully. The lake emptied in 36 hours, with 75% of the water volume loss occurring in the first ten hours. The observed peak discharge of the resultant flood was 25 m3/s, which is similar to that in northern Alaska river basins whose areas are more than two orders of magnitude larger. Our findings support the catastrophic nature of sudden lake drainage events and the mechanistic hypotheses developed by J. Ross Mackay.

  1. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems. (paper)

  2. Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitri Titeca-Beauport

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient’s general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient’s condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient’s general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

  3. Tatra's forests will recover from catastrophe for decades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haluza, I.

    2004-01-01

    Windy tornado in Tatra's national park (TANAP, High Tatras, Slovakia) at the end of 2004 caused extensive ecological catastrophe and economic losses. Wind has totally damaged the trees in more than one fourth of forest area, which is administrated by state forests of TANAP. Next fourth of forest area has impaired structure. Mostly coniferous forests have fallen down not only in High Tatras, but also in Horehronie, Kysuce, Orava and Spis. According to estimates around 2.5 million cubic meters of wood have lain on the ground in High Tatras. This wood must be precipitately processed. In another regions totally from 800 to 900 thousands cubic meters are overcame by wind. Ecological catastrophe has come in High Tatras. Totally damaged large forests areas need to be recovered for long decades. 90 per cent of annual Slovakian wood cutting represents totally 2.5 million cubic meters. The state will invest in forest recovery from sale of calamity stuff. Reforestation of one hectare of forest costs from 80 to 90 thousands Slovak crowns (∼2666-3000 USD). Another remedies at the age to five years represent from 40 to 50 thousands Slovak crowns (1333-16666 USD). Around 1.6 billion Slovak crown (∼53.333 million USD) will be needed for reforestation of 12 thousands hectares of TANAP

  4. Snow Catastrophe Conditions: What is its Impact on Orthopedic Injuries?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Mardani-Kivi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background:   Iran places sixth amongst high risk natural disaster countries and Guilan province of Iran shoulders a large amount of socio-economic burden due to snow catastrophes. The more knowledge of circumstances we have, the more efficient our future encounters will be. Methods: In this retrospective study, of all of the patients admitted to Poursina Hospital due to snow and ice related trauma in the first two weeks of February 2014, 306 cases were found eligible for entry into the present study. Results: Of the 306 eligible patients (383 injuries, there were 175 men (57.2% and 131 women (42.8%. Most patients suffered from orthopedic injuries (81% and the most common fractures were distal radius fractures in the upper extremities and hip fractures in the lower extremities. Slipping was the most common and motor vehicle accidents had the rarest injury mechanisms. It was shown that the frequency of injuries were higher on icy days (67.6% than snowy days (32.4%. Conclusions: Snow crises may lead to increased risk of slipping and falling situations, especially on icy days. The peak of injury rates is a few days after snowfall with the most common injury being distal radius fracture. Providing essential instructions and supporting resource allocation to better handle such catastrophes may improve outcomes.

  5. A catastrophe model for the prospect-utility theory question.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliva, Terence A; McDade, Sean R

    2008-07-01

    Anomalies have played a big part in the analysis of decision making under risk. Both expected utility and prospect theories were born out of anomalies exhibited by actual decision making behavior. Since the same individual can use both expected utility and prospect approaches at different times, it seems there should be a means of uniting the two. This paper turns to nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS), specifically a catastrophe model, to help suggest an 'out of the box' line of solution toward integration. We use a cusp model to create a value surface whose control dimensions are involvement and gains versus losses. By including 'involvement' as a variable the importance of the individual's psychological state is included, and it provides a rationale for how decision makers' changes from expected utility to prospect might occur. Additionally, it provides a possible explanation for what appears to be even more irrational decisions that individuals make when highly emotionally involved. We estimate the catastrophe model using a sample of 997 gamblers who attended a casino and compare it to the linear model using regression. Hence, we have actual data from individuals making real bets, under real conditions.

  6. Impact of a natural catastrophe on life events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janney, J G; Masuda, M; Holmes, T H

    1977-06-01

    A major earthquake struck Peru in May 1970. This post-quake study compares the impact of this natural catastrophe on the residents of two different cities; one was 90 percent levelled by the quake and one was untouched. A relatively homogeneous population of Peruvians obtained from the two cities completed two paper-and-pencil tests, the Social Readjustment Rating Questionnaire (SRRQ) and the Schedule of Recent Experience (SRE). Both questionnaires were adapted from the SRRQ which had been translated for studies in Spain and EL Salvador. The data from the SRRQ generated two Peruvian Social Readjustment Rating Scales (SRRS), one for each of the cities studied. The differences in the two scales were striking. The lowest intra-cultural correlation yet observed on four studies was obtained. Comparison with a United States population yielded no significant relationships (rs = 0.15), the first time this has occurred in nine intercultural studies. A comparison of the profile of items generated by their subjective magnitude estimations indicated striking qualitative and quantitative differences between the two populations. The SRE generated frequency of occurrence of items and life change magnitudes in five proscribed time intervals. Significant differences in these two quantitative indices (including the health change items) were observed in the two populations in some of the time intervals and not in others. The data formulated suggest that the occurrence of a natural catastrophe--an earthquake which devastated one city--accounted for much of the difference observed between the populations of the two cities.

  7. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weir, D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  8. The inherent catastrophic traps in retrograde CTO PCI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Eugene B; Tsuchikane, Etsuo

    2018-05-01

    When we learn to drive, our driving instructor tells us how to check the side mirror and turn your head to check the blind spot before changing lanes. He tells us how to stop at stop signs, how to drive in slippery conditions, the safe stopping distances, and these all make our driving safe. Similarly, when we learn PCI, our mentors teach us to seat the guiding catheter co-axially, to wire the vessel safely, to deliver balloon and stents over the wire, to watch the pressure of the guiding, in order that we perform PCI safely and evade complications. In retrograde CTO PCI, there is no such published teaching. Also many individual mentors have not had the wide experience to see all the possible complications of retrograde CTO PCI and, therefore, may not be able to warn their apprentice. As the number of retrograde procedures increase worldwide, there is a corresponding increase in catastrophic complications, many of which, we as experts, can see are easily avoidable. To breach this gap in knowledge, this article describes 12 commonly met inherent traps in retrograde CTO PCI. They are inherent because by arranging our equipment in the manner to perform retrograde CTO PCI, these complications are either induced directly or happen easily. We hope this work will enhance safety of retrograde CTO PCI and avoid many catastrophic complications for our readers and operators. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Analyses of fatalities from natural catastrophes in different income groups over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Tobias

    2017-04-01

    Identifying not only economic and insured losses but also numbers of fatalities from natural catastrophes provides new information on resilience and prevention measures in the countries affected. In this talk, we examine how fatalities from Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database, caused by natural disasters have developed. In addition to the standard approach based on fatalities by country, we introduced a new measure, "fatalities per million inhabitants", and factored in population development over time. The World Bank definition was used to determine the wealth classification of individual countries. This methodology enables us to compare countries with different population sizes and thus produce an index for humanitarian impact. The analyses are key information on ascertaining whether prevention measures or early-warning systems have in fact reduced the number of fatalities in recent decades (1980-2016).

  10. 4. Payment Schemes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 2. Electronic Commerce - Payment Schemes. V Rajaraman. Series Article Volume 6 Issue 2 February 2001 pp 6-13. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/006/02/0006-0013 ...

  11. Contract saving schemes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ronald, R.; Smith, S.J.; Elsinga, M.; Eng, O.S.; Fox O'Mahony, L.; Wachter, S.

    2012-01-01

    Contractual saving schemes for housing are institutionalised savings programmes normally linked to rights to loans for home purchase. They are diverse types as they have been developed differently in each national context, but normally fall into categories of open, closed, compulsory, and ‘free

  12. Alternative reprocessing schemes evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-02-01

    This paper reviews the parameters which determine the inaccessibility of the plutonium in reprocessing plants. Among the various parameters, the physical and chemical characteristics of the materials, the various processing schemes and the confinement are considered. The emphasis is placed on that latter parameter, and the advantages of an increased confinement in the socalled PIPEX reprocessing plant type are presented

  13. Introduction to association schemes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidel, J.J.

    1991-01-01

    The present paper gives an introduction to the theory of association schemes, following Bose-Mesner (1959), Biggs (1974), Delsarte (1973), Bannai-Ito (1984) and Brouwer-Cohen-Neumaier (1989). Apart from definitions and many examples, also several proofs and some problems are included. The paragraphs

  14. Reaction schemes of immunoanalysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delaage, M.; Barbet, J.

    1991-01-01

    The authors apply a general theory for multiple equilibria to the reaction schemes of immunoanalysis, competition and sandwich. This approach allows the manufacturer to optimize the system and provide the user with interpolation functions for the standard curve and its first derivative as well, thus giving access to variance [fr

  15. Alternative health insurance schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Hans; Hansen, Bodil O.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we present a simple model of health insurance with asymmetric information, where we compare two alternative ways of organizing the insurance market. Either as a competitive insurance market, where some risks remain uninsured, or as a compulsory scheme, where however, the level...... competitive insurance; this situation turns out to be at least as good as either of the alternatives...

  16. Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diebel, Martin

    2017-01-01

    The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

  17. Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (I): catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

    2011-02-01

    The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyse the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analysed on the catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

  18. Comparison of two cash transfer strategies to prevent catastrophic costs for poor tuberculosis-affected households in low- and middle-income countries: An economic modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudgard, William E; Evans, Carlton A; Sweeney, Sedona; Wingfield, Tom; Lönnroth, Knut; Barreira, Draurio; Boccia, Delia

    2017-11-01

    to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $3.8 million (95% CI: $3.8 million-$3.8 million) and $75 million (95% CI: $50 million-$100 million) per country. If instead cash transfers were provided with a TB-sensitive approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB-related catastrophic costs in any of the 6 countries, and when increased enough to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $298 million (95% CI: $219 million-$378 million) and $165,367 million (95% CI: $134,085 million-$196,425 million) per country. DR TB-related costs were catastrophic before and after TB-specific or TB-sensitive cash transfers in 1 out of 1 countries. Sensitivity analyses showed our findings to be robust to imputation of missing TB-related cost components, and use of 10% or 30% instead of 20% as the threshold for measuring catastrophic costs. Key limitations were using national average data and not considering other health and social benefits of cash transfers. A TB-sensitive cash transfer approach to increase all poor households' income may have broad benefits by reducing poverty, but is unlikely to be as effective or affordable for preventing TB catastrophic costs as a TB-specific cash transfer approach to defray TB-related costs only in poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis. Preventing DR TB-related catastrophic costs will require considerable additional investment whether a TB-sensitive or a TB-specific cash transfer approach is used.

  19. Usages des TIC et rapports a l’incertitude en situation de catastrophes naturelles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Brossaud

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Cet article montre comment des professionnels et des sinistrés qui ont été confrontés à des catastrophes naturelles sur trois territoires distincts - la tempête à Limoges en 1999, les inondations à Abbeville (2001 et à Bourg-en-Bresse (2005 - ont construit une histoire commune du risque au moyen des technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC : Internet, téléphone portable, bases de données, outils de travail partagés, etc. Les usages des TIC sont d’abord resitués concrètement avant, pendant et après les événements dans un contexte historique où les sciences et techniques sont de plus en plus sollicitées pour réduire les incertitudes liées aux menaces sanitaires et écologiques. On voit ensuite s’élaborer une culture du risque sur la base de compétences socio-cognitives et relationnelles particulières face aux événements et à leur prise en charge technologique. Nous examinons en dernier ressort le rôle des TIC dans l’apprentissage d’une argumentation et d’une délibération collective sur les catastrophes, notamment grâce à la mise en place d’outils dédiés à l’étude sur le site http://www.technorisque.net.This article shows how professionnals and disaster victims involved in natural catastrophes in three different areas - Limoges storm in 1999, Abbeville and Bourg-en-Bresse floods in 2001 and 2005 – built a commun risk story with Information and communication technologies (ICT : Internet, mobiles, data bases, groupware, etc. At first, ICT uses are concretely approached before, during and after the events in a historic context where sciences and technology are growing up to reduce uncertainties of medical and ecological threats. Then, in the second part of this article, a risk culture is supported by socio-cognitive and relationnal competences towards events and their technological holding. At last, we examine ICT place in a collective argumentation and deliberation about the

  20. Selectively strippable paint schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R.; Thumm, D.; Blackford, Roger W.

    1993-03-01

    In order to meet the requirements of more environmentally acceptable paint stripping processes many different removal methods are under evaluation. These new processes can be divided into mechanical and chemical methods. ICI has developed a paint scheme with intermediate coat and fluid resistant polyurethane topcoat which can be stripped chemically in a short period of time with methylene chloride free and phenol free paint strippers.

  1. A numerical scheme for the generalized Burgers–Huxley equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brajesh K. Singh

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, a numerical solution of generalized Burgers–Huxley (gBH equation is approximated by using a new scheme: modified cubic B-spline differential quadrature method (MCB-DQM. The scheme is based on differential quadrature method in which the weighting coefficients are obtained by using modified cubic B-splines as a set of basis functions. This scheme reduces the equation into a system of first-order ordinary differential equation (ODE which is solved by adopting SSP-RK43 scheme. Further, it is shown that the proposed scheme is stable. The efficiency of the proposed method is illustrated by four numerical experiments, which confirm that obtained results are in good agreement with earlier studies. This scheme is an easy, economical and efficient technique for finding numerical solutions for various kinds of (nonlinear physical models as compared to the earlier schemes.

  2. ATR prohibits replication catastrophe by preventing global exhaustion of RPA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt; Lukas, Claudia; Larsen, Dorthe Helena; Povlsen, Lou Klitgaard; Bekker-Jensen, Simon; Mailand, Niels; Bartek, Jiri; Lukas, Jiri

    2013-11-21

    ATR, activated by replication stress, protects replication forks locally and suppresses origin firing globally. Here, we show that these functions of ATR are mechanistically coupled. Although initially stable, stalled forks in ATR-deficient cells undergo nucleus-wide breakage after unscheduled origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells commonly feature intrinsically high replication stress, this study also provides a molecular rationale for their hypersensitivity to ATR inhibitors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: Some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagan, C.

    1986-01-01

    Apocalyptic prediction require, to be taken seriously, higher standards of evidence than do assertions on other matters where the stakes are not as great. Since the immediate effects of even a single hermonuclear weapon explosion are so devastating, it is natural to assume - even without considering detailed mechanism - that the more or less simultaneous explosion of 10,000 such weapons all over the Northern Hemisphere might have unpredictable and catastrophic consequences. And yet, while it is widely accepted that a full nuclear war might mean the end of civilization at least in the Northern Hemisphere, claims that nuclear war might imply a reversion of the human population to prehistoric levels, or even the extinction of the human species, have, among some policymakers at least, been dismissed as alarmist or, worse, irrelevant

  4. Catastrophes in nature and society mathematical modeling of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Khlebopros, Rem G; Fet, Abram I

    2007-01-01

    Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems - which obey the same laws - and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

  5. Correlated network of networks enhances robustness against catastrophic failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Byungjoon; Zheng, Muhua

    2018-01-01

    Networks in nature rarely function in isolation but instead interact with one another with a form of a network of networks (NoN). A network of networks with interdependency between distinct networks contains instability of abrupt collapse related to the global rule of activation. As a remedy of the collapse instability, here we investigate a model of correlated NoN. We find that the collapse instability can be removed when hubs provide the majority of interconnections and interconnections are convergent between hubs. Thus, our study identifies a stable structure of correlated NoN against catastrophic failures. Our result further suggests a plausible way to enhance network robustness by manipulating connection patterns, along with other methods such as controlling the state of node based on a local rule.

  6. Hypokalemia-associated catastrophic rhabdomyolysis in ulcerative colitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tzvetanov, G.

    2009-01-01

    A case of catastrophic hypokalemia-associated rhabdomyolysis in patient with ulcerative colitis (UC) is reported. A 60-year-old man presented with an exacerbation of UC and hypokalemia due to long-term diarrhea. While in the hospital, rhabdomyolysis developed in association with worsening hypokalemia. The hypokalemia was refractory to treatment and progressive course. Patient developed painful cramps of the masticatory and facial musculature associated with a moderated weakness in distal muscle groups. The weakness extended to intercostals and diaphragm muscles and led to respiratory deficiency. Serum concentration of creatine kinase was highly increased. Patient died from advancing and insurmountable cardiovascular deficiency. The causative role of hypokalemia for muscle involvement and rhabdomyolysis in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases was discussed. (author)

  7. Carbon: change of climate, but no worldwide catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H; Kempe, S; Spitzy, A

    1981-03-21

    The combustion of nearly all available coal, petroleum and natural gas supplies in the next 150 years which has been formed over 600 million years of earth's history, has resulted in man starting the largest conceivable geochemical experiment, without knowing whether and how the hence increased CO/sub 2/ content of the atmosphere is going to alter the climate. Predictions of the time change of the climate and its influence on the food basis are very hard to make. The authors working at the International Carbon Centre at Hamburg within the framework of the SCOPE/UNEP program analyze various climate models and conclude that the changing climate with or without CO/sub 2/ will cause costs in industrial countries as well as catastrophes in the development countries.

  8. Improving Catastrophe Modeling for Business Interruption Insurance Needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Adam; Huyck, Charles K

    2016-10-01

    While catastrophe (CAT) modeling of property damage is well developed, modeling of business interruption (BI) lags far behind. One reason is the crude nature of functional relationships in CAT models that translate property damage into BI. Another is that estimating BI losses is more complicated because it depends greatly on public and private decisions during recovery with respect to resilience tactics that dampen losses by using remaining resources more efficiently to maintain business function and to recover more quickly. This article proposes a framework for improving hazard loss estimation for BI insurance needs. Improved data collection that allows for analysis at the level of individual facilities within a company can improve matching the facilities with the effectiveness of individual forms of resilience, such as accessing inventories, relocating operations, and accelerating repair, and can therefore improve estimation accuracy. We then illustrate the difference this can make in a case study example of losses from a hurricane. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Semi-classical approximation to path integrals - phases and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levit, S.

    1977-01-01

    Problems of phases and catastrophes were encountered when trying to apply the classical S-matrix theory to the scattering phenomena in nuclear physics. The path integral formulation provided a suitable basis for the treatment of these and related problems. Within conventional mathematical language it was possible to give practical prescriptions and discuss their limitations. Since the semi-classical (stationary phase) approximation is commonly used in any application of the path integral method, the results are not restricted to the scattering problems and may be of general interest. The derivation of the uniform approximations in the energy representation should use the exact path integral expression as the starting point, rather than performing Fourier transforms on the expressions derived in the present lecture. (B.G.)

  10. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...... of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper....

  11. From teosinte to maize: the catastrophic sexual transmutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iltis, H H

    1983-11-25

    An alternative to the theory that the ear of maize (Zea mays ssp. mays) evolved from a slender female ear of a Mexican annual teosinte holds that it was derived from the central spike of a male teosinte inflorescence (tassel) which terminates the primary lateral branches. This alternative hypothesis is more consistent with morphology and explains the anomalous lack of significant genetic and biochemical differences between these taxa. Maize, the only cereal with unisexual inflorescences, evolved through a sudden epigenetic sexual transmutation involving condensation of primary branches, which brought their tassels into the zone of female expression, leading to strong apical dominance and a catastrophic shift in nutrient allocation. Initially, this quantum change may have involved no new mutations, but rather genetic assimilation under human selection of an abnormality, perhaps environmentally triggered.

  12. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. Case report and literature review

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Carpio-Orantes, Luis; Martínez-Anaya, Chantall Citlally; Bonilla-Casas, Elías

    2017-01-01

    The present document is the report of a case of a very rare clinical entity, which presents with acute multiorganic failure after a thrombotic storm related to antiphospholipid antibodies, the so-called catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, which began as a recurrent picture of mesenteric thrombosis, with a previous history of venous insufficiency and distal ulcers probably associated with an unidentified antiphospholipid; deserving management in intensive care and the consultation by the world expert, Dr. Ricard Cervera who confirmed the diagnosis and recommend treating as such entity, the patient's evolution was satisfactory so far. Final recommendations for diagnosis and current treatment options such as rituximab or eculizumab are made. The present case was added to the international registry that currently houses around 500 cases worldwide (International CAPS Registry). Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud

  13. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Presenting as Bilateral Central Retinal Artery Occlusions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven S. Saraf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A previously healthy 22-year-old African American woman presented with bilateral vision loss associated with headache. Her ocular examination was significant for bilateral retinal arterial “boxcarring,” retinal whitening, retinal hemorrhages, and cherry red spots. She was diagnosed with bilateral central retinal artery occlusions and was hospitalized due to concomitant diagnosis of stroke and hypercoagulable state. She was also found to be in heart failure and kidney failure. Rheumatology was consulted and she was diagnosed with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in association with systemic lupus erythematosus. Approximately 7 months after presentation, the patient’s vision improved and remained stable at 20/200 and 20/80.

  14. Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Schmidt

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot is followed by a decline (noise. This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds, a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

  15. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (Ronald Asherson syndrome) and obstetric pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makatsariya, Alexander D; Khizroeva, Jamilya; Bitsadze, Viktoriya O

    2018-05-24

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is an uncommon, often fatal, variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) that results in a widespread coagulopathy and high titres of antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) and affects predominantly small vessels supplying organs with the development of multiorgan failure. It remains unclear why some patients develop the typical clinical picture of APS (thrombosis of large vessels), whereas others show the development of progressive microthrombosis, which the authors called "thrombotic storm" and multiple organ failure, that is, CAPS. Since 2001-2016, we discovered 17 patients with CAPS development. CAPS is life-threatening condition, but optimal treatment for CAPS is not developed yet and the mortality rate is as high as 30%-40%.

  16. Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Wolski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

  17. Impact of the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act on nursing homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laliberte, L; Mor, V; Berg, K; Intrator, O; Calore, K; Hiris, J

    1997-01-01

    The Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act (MCCA) of 1988 altered eligibility and coverage for skilled nursing facility (SNF) care and changed Medicaid eligibility rules for nursing-home residents. Detailed data on the residents of a for-profit nursing-home chain and Medicare claims for a 1 percent sample of beneficiaries were used to examine the impact of the MCCA on nursing homes. The case mix of nursing-home admissions was scrutinized, specifically for length of stay, discharge disposition, rate of hospitalization, and changes in payer source. Findings revealed that, although the proportion of Medicare-financed nursing-home care increased, as did the case-mix severity of residents during the MCCA period, there was no corollary reduction in hospital use by nursing-home residents.

  18. Catastrophic valley fills record large Himalayan earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolle, Amelie; Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2017-12-01

    Uncertain timing and magnitudes of past mega-earthquakes continue to confound seismic risk appraisals in the Himalayas. Telltale traces of surface ruptures are rare, while fault trenches document several events at best, so that additional proxies of strong ground motion are needed to complement the paleoseismological record. We study Nepal's Pokhara basin, which has the largest and most extensively dated archive of earthquake-triggered valley fills in the Himalayas. These sediments form a 148-km2 fan that issues from the steep Seti Khola gorge in the Annapurna Massif, invading and plugging 15 tributary valleys with tens of meters of debris, and impounding several lakes. Nearly a dozen new radiocarbon ages corroborate at least three episodes of catastrophic sedimentation on the fan between ∼700 and ∼1700 AD, coinciding with great earthquakes in ∼1100, 1255, and 1344 AD, and emplacing roughly >5 km3 of debris that forms the Pokhara Formation. We offer a first systematic sedimentological study of this formation, revealing four lithofacies characterized by thick sequences of mid-fan fluvial conglomerates, debris-flow beds, and fan-marginal slackwater deposits. New geochemical provenance analyses reveal that these upstream dipping deposits of Higher Himalayan origin contain lenses of locally derived river clasts that mark time gaps between at least three major sediment pulses that buried different parts of the fan. The spatial pattern of 14C dates across the fan and the provenance data are key to distinguishing these individual sediment pulses, as these are not evident from their sedimentology alone. Our study demonstrates how geomorphic and sedimentary evidence of catastrophic valley infill can help to independently verify and augment paleoseismological fault-trench records of great Himalayan earthquakes, while offering unparalleled insights into their long-term geomorphic impacts on major drainage basins.

  19. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, M.

    2008-07-01

    The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  20. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gruber

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities.

    From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets.

    In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles, and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions.

    This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  1. Dynamic growth of slip surfaces in catastrophic landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germanovich, Leonid N; Kim, Sihyun; Puzrin, Alexander M

    2016-01-01

    This work considers a landslide caused by the shear band that emerges along the potential slip (rupture) surface. The material above the band slides downwards, causing the band to grow along the slope. This growth may first be stable (progressive), but eventually becomes dynamic (catastrophic). The landslide body acquires a finite velocity before it separates from the substrata. The corresponding initial-boundary value problem for a dynamic shear band is formulated within the framework of Palmer & Rice's ( Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 332 , 527-548. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1973.0040)) approach, which is generalized to the dynamic case. We obtain the exact, closed-form solution for the band velocity and slip rate. This solution assesses when the slope fails owing to a limiting condition near the propagating tip of the shear band. Our results are applicable to both submarine and subaerial landslides of this type. It appears that neglecting dynamic (inertia) effects can lead to a significant underestimation of the slide size, and that the volumes of catastrophic slides can exceed the volumes of progressive slides by nearly a factor of 2. As examples, we consider the Gaviota and Humboldt slides offshore of California, and discuss landslides in normally consolidated sediments and sensitive clays. In particular, it is conceivable that Humboldt slide is unfinished and may still displace a large volume of sediments, which could generate a considerable tsunami. We show that in the case of submarine slides, the effect of water resistance on the shear band dynamics may frequently be limited during the slope failure stage. For a varying slope angle, we formulate a condition of slide cessation.

  2. Has the Rajiv Aarogyasri Community Health Insurance Scheme of Andhra Pradesh Addressed the Educational Divide in Accessing Health Care?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mala Rao

    Full Text Available Equity of access to healthcare remains a major challenge with families continuing to face financial and non-financial barriers to services. Lack of education has been shown to be a key risk factor for 'catastrophic' health expenditure (CHE, in many countries including India. Consequently, ways to address the education divide need to be explored. We aimed to assess whether the innovative state-funded Rajiv Aarogyasri Community Health Insurance Scheme of Andhra Pradesh state launched in 2007, has achieved equity of access to hospital inpatient care among households with varying levels of education.We used the National Sample Survey Organization 2004 survey as our baseline and the same survey design to collect post-intervention data from 8623 households in the state in 2012. Two outcomes, hospitalisation and CHE for inpatient care, were estimated using education as a measure of socio-economic status and transforming levels of education into ridit scores. We derived relative indices of inequality by regressing the outcome measures on education, transformed as a ridit score, using logistic regression models with appropriate weights and accounting for the complex survey design.Between 2004 and 2012, there was a 39% reduction in the likelihood of the most educated person being hospitalised compared to the least educated, with reductions observed in all households as well as those that had used the Aarogyasri. For CHE the inequality disappeared in 2012 in both groups. Sub-group analyses by economic status, social groups and rural-urban residence showed a decrease in relative indices of inequality in most groups. Nevertheless, inequalities in hospitalisation and CHE persisted across most groups.During the time of the Aarogyasri scheme implementation inequalities in access to hospital care were substantially reduced but not eliminated across the education divide. Universal access to education and schemes such as Aarogyasri have the synergistic potential

  3. Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

  4. Mitarbeiteranreizsysteme und Innovationserfolg (Employee suggestion schemes and innovation success)

    OpenAIRE

    Czarnitzki, Dirk; Kraft, Kornelius

    2008-01-01

    "We discuss the determinants of a successful implementation of an employee suggestion scheme and other measures to stimulate innovation success. Subsequently the effects of the employee suggestion schemes are investigated empirically. We analyse the realisation of cost reductions and alternatively sales expansion due to quality improvements. It turns out that employee suggestion schemes have a positive effect on cost efficiency and sales growth. Delegation of decision authority reduces produc...

  5. ESCAP mobile training scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasas, F M

    1977-01-01

    In response to a United Nations resolution, the Mobile Training Scheme (MTS) was set up to provide training to the trainers of national cadres engaged in frontline and supervisory tasks in social welfare and rural development. The training is innovative in its being based on an analysis of field realities. The MTS team consisted of a leader, an expert on teaching methods and materials, and an expert on action research and evaluation. The country's trainers from different departments were sent to villages to work for a short period and to report their problems in fulfilling their roles. From these grass roots experiences, they made an analysis of the job, determining what knowledge, attitude and skills it required. Analysis of daily incidents and problems were used to produce indigenous teaching materials drawn from actual field practice. How to consider the problems encountered through government structures for policy making and decisions was also learned. Tasks of the students were to identify the skills needed for role performance by job analysis, daily diaries and project histories; to analyze the particular community by village profiles; to produce indigenous teaching materials; and to practice the role skills by actual role performance. The MTS scheme was tried in Nepal in 1974-75; 3 training programs trained 25 trainers and 51 frontline workers; indigenous teaching materials were created; technical papers written; and consultations were provided. In Afghanistan the scheme was used in 1975-76; 45 participants completed the training; seminars were held; and an ongoing Council was created. It is hoped that the training program will be expanded to other countries.

  6. The Role of Geoscience Information in Reducing Catastrophic Loss Using a Web-Based Economics Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernknopf, Richard L.; Brookshire, David S.; Ganderton, Philip T.

    2003-01-01

    What role can geoscience information play in the assessment of risk and the value of insurance, especially for natural hazard type risks? In an earlier, related paper Ganderton and others (2000) provided subjects with relatively simple geoscience information concerning natural hazard-type risks. Their research looked at how subjects purchase insurance when faced with relatively low probability but high loss risks of the kind that characterize natural hazards and now, increasingly, manmade disasters. They found evidence to support the expected utility theory (definitions of economics terms can be found in a glossary at the end of report), yet there remained the implication that subjects with excessive aversion to risk were willing to pay considerably more for insurance than the actuarially fair price plus any reasonable risk premium. Here, we report the results of additional experiments that provide further support for the basic postulates of expected utility theory. However, these new experiments add considerably to the decision environment facing subjects by offering an option to purchase geoscientific information that would assist them when calculating expected losses from hazards more accurately. Using an Internet-based mechanism to present information and gather data in an experimental setting, this research provided subjects with considerable textual and graphical information, and time to process it. Over a period of three months, almost 400 subjects participated in on-line experiments that generated approximately 22,000 usable data points for the empirical analysis discussed in this report. In the design of the experiment, we modeled the decisions to purchase (1) a detailed map giving subjects more information regarding the distribution of losses from a hazard and (2) insurance to indemnify them from any losses should they occur. On the basis of this design, we find strong evidence in support of the expected utility theory. Many of the findings reinforce those found in the early, similar study (Ganderton and others, 2000). However, this research also finds interactions between the decision to become better informed and the decision to insure. We chose an empirical framework that allows for both explicit and implicit (unobservable) correlations between the two decisions. The results suggest that at the end of the computer game subjects recognize the benefits of greater geoscience information. They take advantage of it, but are sensitive to its cost. When subjects use the more detailed information, they are more likely to purchase insurance when it offers a net benefit.

  7. Bonus schemes and trading activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pikulina, E.S.; Renneboog, L.D.R.; ter Horst, J.R.; Tobler, P.N.

    2014-01-01

    Little is known about how different bonus schemes affect traders' propensity to trade and which bonus schemes improve traders' performance. We study the effects of linear versus threshold bonus schemes on traders' behavior. Traders buy and sell shares in an experimental stock market on the basis of

  8. Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Ven, W P; Schut, F T

    1994-11-01

    In 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and catastrophic risks (like several forms of expensive long-term care). However, there are two arguments to exclude some of the catastrophic risks from the competitive insurance market, at least during the implementation process of the reforms. Firstly, the prospects for a workable system of risk-adjusted payments to the insurers that should take away the incentives for cream skimming are, at least during the next 5 years, more favorable for the non-catastrophic risks than for the catastrophic risks. Secondly, even if a workable system of risk-adjusted payments can be developed, the problem of quality skimping may be relevant for some of the catastrophic risks, but not for non-catastrophic risks. By 'quality skimping' we mean the reduction of the quality of care to a level which is below the minimum level that is acceptable to society. After 5 years of health care reforms in the Netherlands new insights have resulted in a growing support to confine the implementation of the reforms to the non-catastrophic risks. In drawing (and redrawing) the exact boundaries between different regulatory regimes for catastrophic and non-catastrophic risks, the expected benefits of a cost-effective substitution of care have to be weighted against the potential harm caused by cream skimming and quality skimping.

  9. Precursory landforms and geologic structures of catastrophic landslides induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chigira, M.; Matsushi, Y.; Tsou, C.

    2013-12-01

    Our experience of catastrophic landslides induced by rainstorms and earthquakes in recent years suggests that many of them are preceded by deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation continues slowly and continually and some of them transform into catastrophic failures, which cause devastating damage in wide areas. Some other types, however, do not change into catastrophic failure. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation that preceded catastrophic failures induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan, had been surveyed with airborne laser scanner beforehand, of which high-resolution DEMs gave us an important clue to identify which type of topographic features of gravitational slope deformation is susceptible to catastrophic failure. We found that 26 of 39 deep-seated catastrophic landslides had small scarps along the heads of future landslides. These scarps were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 1% to 23%. 38% of the landslides with small scarps had scarp ratios less than 4%, and a half less than 8%. This fact suggests that the gravitational slope deformation preceded catastrophic failure was relatively small and may suggest that those slopes were under critical conditions just before catastrophic failure. The above scarp ratios may be characteristic to accretional complex with undulating, anastomosing thrust faults, which were major sliding surfaces of the typhoon-induced landslides. Eleven of the remaining 13 landslides occurred in landslide scars of previous landslides or occurred as an extension of landslide scars at the lower parts of

  10. Succesful labelling schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Hans Jørn; Stacey, Julia

    2001-01-01

    . In the spring of 2001 MAPP carried out an extensive consumer study with special emphasis on the Nordic environmentally friendly label 'the swan'. The purpose was to find out how much consumers actually know and use various labelling schemes. 869 households were contacted and asked to fill in a questionnaire...... it into consideration when I go shopping. The respondent was asked to pick the most suitable answer, which described her use of each label. 29% - also called 'the labelling blind' - responded that they basically only knew the recycling label and the Government controlled organic label 'Ø-mærket'. Another segment of 6...

  11. Scheme of stepmotor control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grashilin, V.A.; Karyshev, Yu.Ya.

    1982-01-01

    A 6-cycle scheme of step motor is described. The block-diagram and the basic circuit of the step motor control are presented. The step motor control comprises a pulse shaper, electronic commutator and power amplifiers. The step motor supply from 6-cycle electronic commutator provides for higher reliability and accuracy than from 3-cycle commutator. The control of step motor work is realised by the program given by the external source of control signals. Time-dependent diagrams for step motor control are presented. The specifications of the step-motor is given

  12. Nuclear catastrophe in Japan. Health consequences resulting from Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulitz, Henrik; Eisenberg, Winfrid; Thiel, Reinhold

    2013-01-01

    On 11 March 2011, a nuclear catastrophe occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Japan in the wake of an earthquake and due to serious safety deficiencies. This resulted in a massive and prolonged release of radioactive fission and decay products. Approximately 20% of the radioactive substances released into the atmosphere have led to the contamination of the landmass of Japan with 17,000 becquerels per square meter of cesium-137 and a comparable quantity of cesium-134. The initial health consequences of the nuclear catastrophe are already now, after only two years, scientifically verifiable. Similar to the case of Chernobyl, a decline in the birth rate was documented nine months after the nuclear catastrophe. Throughout Japan, the total drop in number of births in December 2011 was 4362, with the Fukushima Prefecture registering a decline of 209 births. Japan also experienced a rise in infant mortality, with 75 more children dying in their first year of life than expected statistically. In the Fukushima Prefecture alone, some 55,592 children were diagnosed with thyroid gland nodules or cysts. In contrast to cysts and nodules found in adults, these findings in children must be classified as precancerous. There were also the first documented cases in Fukushima of thyroid cancer in children. The present document undertakes three assessments of the expected incidence of cancer resulting from external exposure to radiation. These are based on publications in scientific journals on soil contamination in 47 prefectures in Japan, the average total soil contamination, and, in the third case, on local dose rate measurements in the fall of 2012. Taking into consideration the shielding effect of buildings, the medical organization IPPNW has calculated the collective lifetime doses for individuals at 94,749 manSv, 206,516 manSv, and 118,171 manSv, respectively. In accordance with the risk factors set by the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR) for death

  13. Improvement of One Quantum Encryption Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Zhengjun; Liu, Lihua

    2012-01-01

    Zhou et al. proposed a quantum encryption scheme based on quantum computation in 2006 [N. Zhou et al., Physica A362 (2006) 305]. Each qubit of the ciphertext is constrained to two pairs of conjugate states. So, its implementation is feasible with the existing technology. But it is inefficient since it entails six key bits to encrypt one message bit, and the resulting ciphertext for one message bit consists of three qubits. In addition, its security cannot be directly reduced to the well-known BB84 protocol. In this paper, we improve it using the technique developed in BB84 protocol. The new scheme entails only two key bits to encrypt one message bit. The resulting ciphertext is just composed of two qubits. It saves about a half cost without the loss of security. Moreover, the new scheme is probabilistic instead of deterministic.

  14. Packet reversed packet combining scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhunia, C.T.

    2006-07-01

    The packet combining scheme is a well defined simple error correction scheme with erroneous copies at the receiver. It offers higher throughput combined with ARQ protocols in networks than that of basic ARQ protocols. But packet combining scheme fails to correct errors when the errors occur in the same bit locations of two erroneous copies. In the present work, we propose a scheme that will correct error if the errors occur at the same bit location of the erroneous copies. The proposed scheme when combined with ARQ protocol will offer higher throughput. (author)

  15. A full quantum network scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Hai-Qiang; Wei Ke-Jin; Yang Jian-Hui; Li Rui-Xue; Zhu Wu

    2014-01-01

    We present a full quantum network scheme using a modified BB84 protocol. Unlike other quantum network schemes, it allows quantum keys to be distributed between two arbitrary users with the help of an intermediary detecting user. Moreover, it has good expansibility and prevents all potential attacks using loopholes in a detector, so it is more practical to apply. Because the fiber birefringence effects are automatically compensated, the scheme is distinctly stable in principle and in experiment. The simple components for every user make our scheme easier for many applications. The experimental results demonstrate the stability and feasibility of this scheme. (general)

  16. An efficient numerical scheme for the simulation of parallel-plate active magnetic regenerators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torregrosa-Jaime, Bárbara; Corberán, José M.; Payá, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    A one-dimensional model of a parallel-plate active magnetic regenerator (AMR) is presented in this work. The model is based on an efficient numerical scheme which has been developed after analysing the heat transfer mechanisms in the regenerator bed. The new finite difference scheme optimally com...... to the fully implicit scheme, the proposed scheme achieves more accurate results, prevents numerical errors and requires less computational effort. In AMR simulations the new scheme can reduce the computational time by 88%....

  17. Intelligent on-line fault tolerant control for unanticipated catastrophic failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Gary G; Ho, Liang-Wei

    2004-10-01

    As dynamic systems become increasingly complex, experience rapidly changing environments, and encounter a greater variety of unexpected component failures, solving the control problems of such systems is a grand challenge for control engineers. Traditional control design techniques are not adequate to cope with these systems, which may suffer from unanticipated dynamic failures. In this research work, we investigate the on-line fault tolerant control problem and propose an intelligent on-line control strategy to handle the desired trajectories tracking problem for systems suffering from various unanticipated catastrophic faults. Through theoretical analysis, the sufficient condition of system stability has been derived and two different on-line control laws have been developed. The approach of the proposed intelligent control strategy is to continuously monitor the system performance and identify what the system's current state is by using a fault detection method based upon our best knowledge of the nominal system and nominal controller. Once a fault is detected, the proposed intelligent controller will adjust its control signal to compensate for the unknown system failure dynamics by using an artificial neural network as an on-line estimator to approximate the unexpected and unknown failure dynamics. The first control law is derived directly from the Lyapunov stability theory, while the second control law is derived based upon the discrete-time sliding mode control technique. Both control laws have been implemented in a variety of failure scenarios to validate the proposed intelligent control scheme. The simulation results, including a three-tank benchmark problem, comply with theoretical analysis and demonstrate a significant improvement in trajectory following performance based upon the proposed intelligent control strategy.

  18. Robust catastrophe-free space agriculture on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Masamichi

    During the early stage of CELSS research, economy was a selling point of the bio-regenerative life support concept. Until system integration was exercised in detail at mission planing for the International Space Station, the turning point from open system to CELSS was estimated 10 years of operation for 10 crew member as a consensus. Initial investment and operational cost for the 10-10 regenerative system was believed to be cheaper than the integrated amount of consumables for running open system. Any drop-out from recycling loop of materials is counted as “penalty”. Under this context, degree of closure was raised as an index to measure “maturity” of CELSS technology. Once it was found quite difficult to achieve 100 % closure perfect, science merit of CELSS study was redefined as a small scaled model of terrestrial biosphere. Natural ecosystem has huge sink and backyard in its materials loop. They provide a basis for keeping member in the ecology without falling into catastrophe. Low productivity at high biological diversity is a common key feature at the climax phase of ecosystem. Artificial ecosystem on ground relies on “unpaid” backyard function of surrounding biosphere together with strong control for realizing high productivity at less degree of bio-diversity. It should be noted that top criteria in engineering manned space system is robustness and survivability of crew. All other item is secondary, and just better to have. Without verification of catastrophe free, space agriculture will never be implemented for space and stay as a fantasy on ground forever. There is a great gap between ecology and this requirement for manned space system. In order to fill this gap, we should remind how gatherer and hunter was civilized after the agricultural revolution about ten thousand years ago. Planting cereal crop was a great second step in agricultural innovation. Cereal grain can be stored more than one year after its harvest. Food processing and

  19. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

    OpenAIRE

    Taub, Chloe J.; Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.; Mackey, Sean C.; Darnall, Beth D.

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic l...

  20. Health service use, out-of-pocket payments and catastrophic health expenditure among older people in India: the WHO Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinda, Ethel Mary; Kowal, Paul; Attermann, Jørn; Enemark, Ulrika

    2015-05-01

    Healthcare financing through out-of-pocket payments and inequities in healthcare utilisation are common in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Given the dearth of pertinent studies on these issues among older people in LMICs, we investigated the determinants of health service use, out-of-pocket and catastrophic health expenditures among older people in one LMIC, India. We accessed data from a nationally representative, multistage sample of 2414 people aged 65 years and older from the WHO's Study on global AGEing and adult health in India. Sociodemographic characteristics, health profiles, health service utilisation and out-of-pocket health expenditure were assessed using standard instruments. Multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were used to evaluate the determinants of health service visits. Multivariate Heckman sample selection regression models were used to assess the determinants of out-of-pocket and catastrophic health expenditures. Out-of-pocket health expenditures were higher among participants with disability and lower income. Diabetes, hypertension, chronic pulmonary disease, heart disease and tuberculosis increased the number of health visits and out-of-pocket health expenditures. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure among older people in India was 7% (95% CI 6% to 8%). Older men and individuals with chronic diseases were at higher risk of catastrophic health expenditure, while access to health insurance lowered the risk. Reducing out-of-pocket health expenditure among older people is an important public health issue, in which social as well as medical determinants should be prioritised. Enhanced public health sector performance and provision of publicly funded insurance may protect against catastrophic health expenses and healthcare inequities in India. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  1. Electrical streaming potential precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Qian

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The majority of anomalies in self-potential at 7 stations within 160 km from the epicentre showed a similar pattern of rapid onset and slow decay during and before the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Considering that some of these anomalies associated with episodical spouting from boreholes or the increase in pore pressure in wells, observed anomalies are streaming potential generated by local events of sudden movements and diffusion process of high-pressure fluid in parallel faults. These transient events triggered by tidal forces exhibited a periodic nature and the statistical phenomenon to migrate towards the epicentre about one month before the earthquake. As a result of events, the pore pressure reached its final equilibrium state and was higher than that in the initial state in a large enough section of the fault region. Consequently, local effective shear strength of the material in the fault zone decreased and finally the catastrophic earthquake was induced. Similar phenomena also occurred one month before the M 7.3 Haichen earthquake of 1975. Therefore, a short term earthquake prediction can be made by electrical measurements, which are the kind of geophysical measurements most closely related to pore fluid behaviors of the deep crust.

  2. Supersymmetric and non-supersymmetric models without catastrophic Goldstone bosons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braathen, Johannes; Goodsell, Mark D. [LPTHE, UPMC Univ. Paris 6, Sorbonne Universites, Paris (France); LPTHE, CNRS, Paris (France); Staub, Florian [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Theoretical Physics (ITP), Karlsruhe (Germany); Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Nuclear Physics (IKP), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2017-11-15

    The calculation of the Higgs mass in general renormalisable field theories has been plagued by the so-called ''Goldstone Boson Catastrophe'', where light (would-be) Goldstone bosons give infra-red divergent loop integrals. In supersymmetric models, previous approaches included a workaround that ameliorated the problem for most, but not all, parameter space regions; while giving divergent results everywhere for non-supersymmetric models. We present an implementation of a general solution to the problem in the public code SARAH, along with new calculations of some necessary loop integrals and generic expressions. We discuss the validation of our code in the Standard Model, where we find remarkable agreement with the known results. We then show new applications in Split SUSY, the NMSSM, the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model, and the Georgi-Machacek model. In particular, we take some first steps to exploring where the habit of using tree-level mass relations in non-supersymmetric models breaks down, and show that the loop corrections usually become very large well before naive perturbativity bounds are reached. (orig.)

  3. Fold catastrophe model of dynamic pillar failure in asymmetric mining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yue Pan; Ai-wu Li; Yun-song Qi [Qingdao Technological University, Qingdao (China). College of Civil Engineering

    2009-01-15

    A rock burst disaster not only destroys the pit facilities and results in economic loss but it also threatens the life of the miners. Pillar rock burst has a higher frequency of occurrence in the pit compared to other kinds of rock burst. Understanding the cause, magnitude and prevention of pillar rock burst is a significant undertaking. Equations describing the bending moment and displacement of the rock beam in asymmetric mining have been deduced for simplified asymmetric beam-pillar systems. Using the symbolic operation software MAPLE 9.5 a catastrophe model of the dynamic failure of an asymmetric rock-beam pillar system has been established. The differential form of the total potential function deduced from the law of conservation of energy was used for this deduction. The critical conditions and the initial and final positions of the pillar during failure have been given in analytical form. The amount of elastic energy released by the rock beam at the instant of failure is determined as well. A diagrammatic form showing the pillar failure was plotted using MATLAB software. This graph contains a wealth of information and is important for understanding the behavior during each deformation phase of the rock-beam pillar system. The graphic also aids in distinguishing the equivalent stiffness of the rock beam in different directions. 11 refs., 8 figs.

  4. Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Topographic stress and catastrophic collapse of volcanic islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, S.; Perron, J. T.; Martel, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    Flank collapse of volcanic islands can devastate coastal environments and potentially induce tsunamis. Previous studies have suggested that factors such as volcanic eruption events, gravitational spreading, the reduction of material strength due to hydrothermal alteration, steep coastal cliffs, or sea level change may contribute to slope instability and induce catastrophic collapse of volcanic flanks. In this study, we examine the potential influence of three-dimensional topographic stress perturbations on flank collapses of volcanic islands. Using a three-dimensional boundary element model, we calculate subsurface stress fields for the Canary and Hawaiian islands to compare the effects of stratovolcano and shield volcano shapes on topographic stresses. Our model accounts for gravitational stresses from the actual shapes of volcanic islands, ambient stress in the underlying plate, and the influence of pore water pressure. We quantify the potential for slope failure of volcanic flanks using a combined model of three-dimensional topographic stress and slope stability. The results of our analysis show that subsurface stress fields vary substantially depending on the shapes of volcanoes, and can influence the size and spatial distribution of flank failures.

  6. WHO's new recommendations about iodine prophylaxis at nuclear catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paile, Wendla

    1999-01-01

    WHO has prepared new advice about using stable iodine as protection against emission of radioactive iodine from nuclear catastrophes. The experiences from Chernobyl show that the risk for thyroid gland cancer after emission of radio-iodine is significant. The risk of serious side effects of stable iodine as single dose is stated to be minimal. Stable iodine is a safe, effective remedy for protecting the thyroid gland against radioactive iodine. It is recommended to adjust different criteria for iodine prophylaxis for new-born, children, young people and adults older than 40 years. For children of the age up to 18 years iodine prophylaxis should be considered at 10 mGy thyroid gland doses, and for young adults at 100 mGy. For adults of 40 years or more the cancer risk of radioactive iodine is very low and iodine prophylaxis is unnecessary provided that the expected does not exceed 5 Gy. The new information about risk and advantage must be considered in planning for distribution and storage of stable iodine. WHO also commends that everybody has the possibility to buy it in a pharmacy. (EHS)

  7. Chernobyl catastrophe and establishment of civil society in Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherbak, Yuri

    2013-01-01

    Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine described secret exhibition for Chernobyl accident and a civil movement called the Green World movement. Chernobyl accident had also a great impact on the government and society in such totalitarian state as the Soviet Union was in 1986. Soviet authorities took unprecedented measures to block any information about the nature of explosion levels and number of victims. In 1987, a group of writers and scientists from the Academy of Science of Ukraine established 'Green World'. Green World received serious support from the quasi-nongovernmental organization. The main principles of the Green World were the following: (1) the primacy of environment over economy and politics; (2) democracy and full transparency in environmental issues; (3) all-people's participation in solving environmental issues; (4) combination of scientific and humanistic principles; (5) environmentalization of education and awareness-raising. The author was elected a member of the Soviet Union Parliament, and head of the Subcommittee for Nuclear Energy and Environment of the Parliamentary Committee for Environmental Issues. The 1990 Chernobyl Declaration stated the following; 'It was established that the full burden of the responsibility for the catastrophe should be placed on the state, its authorities and leadership, guilty of criminal actions, along with the political leadership of republics, who created a command-administrative bureaucratic system with its totalitarian regime.' (N.T.)

  8. [2016 review on catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie; Coutte, Laetitia; Le Guern, Véronique; Morel, Nathalie; Leroux, Gaelle; Paule, Romain; Mouthon, Luc; Piette, Jean-Charles

    2016-12-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) develops in at least 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, either primary or associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. CAPS reveals the antiphospholipid syndrome in about 50% of cases. The CAPS is characterized by rapidly-progressive widespread thromboses mainly affecting the microvasculature in the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies. In a few days, the patients develop multiorgan failure with renal insufficiency with severe hypertension, pulmonary, cerebral, cardiac, digestive and/or cutaneous involvement. The vital prognosis is frequently engaged. CAPS is often precipitated by infectious diseases, surgical procedures and/or withdrawal or modification of the anticoagulation. CAPS overall mortality rate has decreased and is currently below 30%. The main differential diagnoses are other thrombotic microangiopathies, and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. The treatment of CAPS consists of the association of anticoagulation and steroids, plus plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulins. Cyclophosphamide is added only in patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus. The potential contribution of some additional therapies (rituximab, eculizumab or sirolimus) needs to be assessed. The prevention of CAPS is essential and is based upon the adequate management of the perioperative period when surgery cannot be avoided, the prompt treatment and the prevention with immunization of infections and the education of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, especially for the management of oral anticoagulants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  9. Catastrophic cooling and cessation of heating in the solar corona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, H.; Bingert, S.; Kamio, S.

    2012-01-01

    Context. Condensations in the more than 106 K hot corona of the Sun are commonly observed in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV). While their contribution to the total solar EUV radiation is still a matter of debate, these condensations certainly provide a valuable tool for studying the dynamic response of the corona to the heating processes. Aims: We investigate different distributions of energy input in time and space to investigate which process is most relevant for understanding these coronal condensations. Methods: For a comparison to observations we synthesize EUV emission from a time-dependent, one-dimensional model for coronal loops, where we employ two heating scenarios: simply shutting down the heating and a model where the heating is very concentrated at the loop footpoints, while keeping the total heat input constant. Results: The heating off/on model does not lead to significant EUV count rates that one observes with SDO/AIA. In contrast, the concentration of the heating near the footpoints leads to thermal non-equilibrium near the loop top resulting in the well-known catastrophic cooling. This process gives a good match to observations of coronal condensations. Conclusions: This shows that the corona needs a steady supply of energy to support the coronal plasma, even during coronal condensations. Otherwise the corona would drain very fast, too fast to even form a condensation. Movies are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  10. Catastrophic disruptions as the origin of bilobate comets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Stephen R.; Michel, Patrick; Jutzi, Martin; Marchi, Simone; Zhang, Yun; Richardson, Derek C.

    2018-05-01

    Several comets observed at close range have bilobate shapes1, including comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P/C-G), which was imaged by the European Space Agency's Rosetta mission2,3. Bilobate comets are thought to be primordial because they are rich in supervolatiles (for example, N2 and CO) and have a low bulk density, which implies that their formation requires a very low-speed accretion of two bodies. However, slow accretion does not only occur during the primordial phase of the Solar System; it can also occur at later epochs as part of the reaccumulation process resulting from the collisional disruption of a larger body4, so this cannot directly constrain the age of bilobate comets. Here, we show by numerical simulation that 67P/C-G and other elongated or bilobate comets can be formed in the wake of catastrophic collisional disruptions of larger bodies while maintaining their volatiles and low density throughout the process. Since this process can occur at any epoch of our Solar System's history, from early on through to the present day5, there is no need for these objects to be formed primordially. These findings indicate that observed prominent geological features, such as pits and stratified surface layers4,5, may not be primordial.

  11. Radiation-induced mitotic catastrophe in PARG-deficient cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ame, J.Ch.; Fouquerel, E.; Dantzer, F.; De Murcia, G.; Schreiber, V. [IREBS-FRE3211 du CNRS, Universite de Strasbourg, ESBS, Bd Sebastien Brant, BP 10413, 67412 Illkirch Cedex (France); Gauthier, L.R.; Boussin, F.D. [Laboratoire de Radiopathologie/INSERM U967, CEA-DSV-IRCM, 92265 Fontenay aux Roses, Cedex 6 (France); Biard, D. [CEA-DSV-IRCM/INSERM U935, Institut A. Lwoff-CNRS, BP 8, 94801 Villejuif cedex (France)

    2009-07-01

    Poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation is a post-translational modification of proteins involved in the regulation of chromatin structure, DNA metabolism, cell division and cell death. Through the hydrolysis of poly(ADP-ribose) (PAR), Poly(ADP-ribose) glyco-hydrolase (PARG) has a crucial role in the control of life-and-death balance following DNA insult. Comprehension of PARG function has been hindered by the existence of many PARG isoforms encoded by a single gene and displaying various subcellular localizations. To gain insight into the function of PARG in response to irradiation, we constitutively and stably knocked down expression of PARG isoforms in HeLa cells. PARG depletion leading to PAR accumulation was not deleterious to undamaged cells and was in fact rather beneficial, because it protected cells from spontaneous single-strand breaks and telomeric abnormalities. By contrast, PARG-deficient cells showed increased radiosensitivity, caused by defects in the repair of single- and double-strand breaks and in mitotic spindle checkpoint, leading to alteration of progression of mitosis. Irradiated PARG-deficient cells displayed centrosome amplification leading to mitotic supernumerary spindle poles, and accumulated aberrant mitotic figures, which induced either polyploidy or cell death by mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest that PARG could be a novel potential therapeutic target for radiotherapy. (authors)

  12. Stabilization of Reversed Replication Forks by Telomerase Drives Telomere Catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margalef, Pol; Kotsantis, Panagiotis; Borel, Valerie; Bellelli, Roberto; Panier, Stephanie; Boulton, Simon J

    2018-01-25

    Telomere maintenance critically depends on the distinct activities of telomerase, which adds telomeric repeats to solve the end replication problem, and RTEL1, which dismantles DNA secondary structures at telomeres to facilitate replisome progression. Here, we establish that reversed replication forks are a pathological substrate for telomerase and the source of telomere catastrophe in Rtel1 -/- cells. Inhibiting telomerase recruitment to telomeres, but not its activity, or blocking replication fork reversal through PARP1 inhibition or depleting UBC13 or ZRANB3 prevents the rapid accumulation of dysfunctional telomeres in RTEL1-deficient cells. In this context, we establish that telomerase binding to reversed replication forks inhibits telomere replication, which can be mimicked by preventing replication fork restart through depletion of RECQ1 or PARG. Our results lead us to propose that telomerase inappropriately binds to and inhibits restart of reversed replication forks within telomeres, which compromises replication and leads to critically short telomeres. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Efficient and Anonymous Authentication Scheme for Wireless Body Area Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Libing; Zhang, Yubo; Li, Li; Shen, Jian

    2016-06-01

    As a significant part of the Internet of Things (IoT), Wireless Body Area Network (WBAN) has attract much attention in this years. In WBANs, sensors placed in or around the human body collect the sensitive data of the body and transmit it through an open wireless channel in which the messages may be intercepted, modified, etc. Recently, Wang et al. presented a new anonymous authentication scheme for WBANs and claimed that their scheme can solve the security problems in the previous schemes. Unfortunately, we demonstrate that their scheme cannot withstand impersonation attack. Either an adversary or a malicious legal client could impersonate another legal client to the application provider. In this paper, we give the detailed weakness analysis of Wang et al.'s scheme at first. Then we present a novel anonymous authentication scheme for WBANs and prove that it's secure under a random oracle model. At last, we demonstrate that our presented anonymous authentication scheme for WBANs is more suitable for practical application than Wang et al.'s scheme due to better security and performance. Compared with Wang et al.'s scheme, the computation cost of our scheme in WBANs has reduced by about 31.58%.

  14. MIMO transmit scheme based on morphological perceptron with competitive learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valente, Raul Ambrozio; Abrão, Taufik

    2016-08-01

    This paper proposes a new multi-input multi-output (MIMO) transmit scheme aided by artificial neural network (ANN). The morphological perceptron with competitive learning (MP/CL) concept is deployed as a decision rule in the MIMO detection stage. The proposed MIMO transmission scheme is able to achieve double spectral efficiency; hence, in each time-slot the receiver decodes two symbols at a time instead one as Alamouti scheme. Other advantage of the proposed transmit scheme with MP/CL-aided detector is its polynomial complexity according to modulation order, while it becomes linear when the data stream length is greater than modulation order. The performance of the proposed scheme is compared to the traditional MIMO schemes, namely Alamouti scheme and maximum-likelihood MIMO (ML-MIMO) detector. Also, the proposed scheme is evaluated in a scenario with variable channel information along the frame. Numerical results have shown that the diversity gain under space-time coding Alamouti scheme is partially lost, which slightly reduces the bit-error rate (BER) performance of the proposed MP/CL-NN MIMO scheme. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Security analysis and improvements of arbitrated quantum signature schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zou Xiangfu; Qiu Daowen

    2010-01-01

    A digital signature is a mathematical scheme for demonstrating the authenticity of a digital message or document. For signing quantum messages, some arbitrated quantum signature (AQS) schemes have been proposed. It was claimed that these AQS schemes could guarantee unconditional security. However, we show that they can be repudiated by the receiver Bob. To conquer this shortcoming, we construct an AQS scheme using a public board. The AQS scheme not only avoids being disavowed by the receiver but also preserves all merits in the existing schemes. Furthermore, we discover that entanglement is not necessary while all these existing AQS schemes depend on entanglement. Therefore, we present another AQS scheme without utilizing entangled states in the signing phase and the verifying phase. This scheme has three advantages: it does not utilize entangled states and it preserves all merits in the existing schemes; the signature can avoid being disavowed by the receiver; and it provides a higher efficiency in transmission and reduces the complexity of implementation.

  16. Research on the Selection Strategy of Green Building Parts Supplier Based on the Catastrophe Theory and Kent Index Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenhua Luo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, the green building and housing industrialization are two mainstream directions in the real estate industry. The production of green building parts which combines green building and housing industrialization, two concepts, is to be vigorously developed. The key of quality assurance in the assembly project is choosing reliable and proper green building parts suppliers. This paper analyzes the inherent requirements of the green building, combined with the characteristics of the housing industrialization, and puts forward an evaluation index system of supplier selection for green building parts, which includes product index, enterprise index, green development index, and cooperation ability index. To reduce the influence of subjective factors, the improved method which merges Kent index method and catastrophe theory is applied to the green building parts supplier selection and evaluation. This paper takes the selection of the unit bathroom suppliers as an example, uses the improved model to calculate and analyze the data of each supplier, and finally selects the optimal supplier. With combination of the Kent index and the catastrophe theory, the result shows that it can effectively reduce the subjectivity of the evaluation and provide a basis for the selection of the green building parts suppliers.

  17. Interference mitigation enhancement of switched-based scheme in over-loaded femtocells

    KAUST Repository

    Gaaloul, Fakhreddine; Radaydeh, Redha Mahmoud Mesleh; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2012-01-01

    -based scheme by minimum interference channel selection or adopt different interference thresholds on available channels, while aiming to reduce the channels examination load. The performance of the proposed schemes is quantified and then compared with those

  18. Financial protection effects of modification of China's New Cooperative Medical Scheme on rural households with chronic diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jing; Chen, Lina; Ye, Ting; Zhang, Zhiguo; Ma, Jingdong

    2014-07-15

    Several years have passed since the rural New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) in China was established and policies kept continuous improvement. Its policies on chronic diseases vary by county but have certain shared characteristics. Following this modification of medical insurance policy, this study reassesses the provision of insurance against expenditure on chronic diseases in rural areas, and analyzes its effect on impoverishment. We conducted an empirical study using multi-stage stratified random sampling. We surveyed 1,661 rural households in three provinces and analyzed the responses from 1,525 households that participated in NCMS, using descriptive and logistic regression analysis. The NCMS has reduced the prevalence of poverty and catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), as measured by out-of-pocket (OOP) payments exceeding 40% of total household expenditure, by decreasing medical expenditure. It provides obvious protection to households which include someone with chronic diseases. However, these households continue to face a higher financial risk than those without anyone suffering from chronic diseases. Variables about health service utilization and OOP payment differed significantly between households with or without people suffering from chronic disease. And CHE risk is commonly associated with household income, the number of family members with chronic diseases, OOP payment of outpatient and inpatient service in all three provinces. To reduce CHE risk for these households, it is critical to decrease OOP payments for health services by enhancing the effective reimbursement level of NCMS and strictly regulating the providers' behaviors. We recommend that a combinatory changes should be made to the rural health insurance scheme in China to improve its effect. These include improving the NCMS benefit package by broadening the catalogue of drugs and treatments covered, decreasing or abolishing deductible and increasing the reimbursement ratio of outpatient

  19. Of Malthus and Methuselah: does longevity treatment aggravate global catastrophic risks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebari, Karim

    2014-12-01

    Global catastrophic risk is a term that refers to the risk of the occurrence of an event that kills at least millions of people across several continents. While it has been argued by a number of scholars that one major potential risk comes from technology, the obscure nature of future technologies makes it difficult to utilize traditional probabilistic risk for the meaningful study of these risks. This article describes an alternative approach and applies it to a research program that has attracted a considerable amount of resources recently: namely longevity research. The aim of this research is to delay or reverse the ageing process. This article argues that this research program is much more risky or less beneficial than its proponents argue. In particular, they tend to underestimate the concerns associated with the potentially drastic population growth that longevity treatment could cause. The ethical benefit often ascribed to longevity treatment is that such treatment would add more subjective life-years that are worth living. However, in light of contemporary environmental problems, such an increase of the human population might be reckless. Drastically reducing fertility to reduce risks associated with environmental stress would make the benefits of such technology much less compelling.

  20. Of Malthus and Methuselah: does longevity treatment aggravate global catastrophic risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jebari, Karim

    2014-01-01

    Global catastrophic risk is a term that refers to the risk of the occurrence of an event that kills at least millions of people across several continents. While it has been argued by a number of scholars that one major potential risk comes from technology, the obscure nature of future technologies makes it difficult to utilize traditional probabilistic risk for the meaningful study of these risks. This article describes an alternative approach and applies it to a research program that has attracted a considerable amount of resources recently: namely longevity research. The aim of this research is to delay or reverse the ageing process. This article argues that this research program is much more risky or less beneficial than its proponents argue. In particular, they tend to underestimate the concerns associated with the potentially drastic population growth that longevity treatment could cause. The ethical benefit often ascribed to longevity treatment is that such treatment would add more subjective life-years that are worth living. However, in light of contemporary environmental problems, such an increase of the human population might be reckless. Drastically reducing fertility to reduce risks associated with environmental stress would make the benefits of such technology much less compelling. (invited comment)

  1. Applications of Solar Technology for Catastrophe Response, Claims Management, and Loss Prevention

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deering, A.; Thornton, J.P.

    1999-02-17

    Today's insurance industry strongly emphasizes developing cost-effective hazard mitigation programs, increasing and retaining commercial and residential customers through better service, educating customers on their exposure and vulnerabilities to natural disasters, collaborating with government agencies and emergency management organizations, and exploring the use of new technologies to reduce the financial impact of disasters. In June of 1998, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the National Association of Independent Insurers (NAII) sponsored a seminar titled, ''Solar Technology and the Insurance Industry.'' Presentations were made by insurance company representatives, insurance trade groups, government and state emergency management organizations, and technology specialists. The meeting was attended by insurers, brokers, emergency managers, and consultants from more than 25 US companies. Leading insurers from the personal line and commercial carriers were shown how solar technology can be used in underwriting, claims, catastrophe response, loss control, and risk management. Attendees requested a follow-up report on solar technology, cost, and applications in disasters, including suggestions on how to collaborate with the utility industry and how to develop educational programs for business and consumers. This report will address these issues, with an emphasis on pre-disaster planning and mitigation alternatives. It will also discuss how energy efficiency and renewable technologies can contribute to reducing insurance losses.

  2. The Prestige Catastrophe: Political Decisions, Scientific Counsel, Missing Markets and the Need for an International Maritime Protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo L. Giménez

    2003-10-01

    Full Text Available The Prestige tankship with 77.000 Tons of fuel suffered an accident on November 13th, 2002 at 45 miles from Galician coast under a storm. Although the ship arrived as close as 5 miles from Galiza, Spanish government refused to admit it at any harbor, but to send off-shore northwest direction. This was the first in a number of decisions that provoked the widest oil pollution ever from Exxon Valdez accident. In this paper it is shown that the political decisions first taken by Spanish government may be understood in the light of economic theory: first due to missing markets for pollution accidents both domestic and international, i.e. the non existence of any international maritime protocol; and second, because of Spanish government incompetence by neglecting the counsel of scientific institutions to assess the possible risks in the event of a catastrophe, which made the authorities to misperceive the risks involved on the decisions taken, and then hid to population information about all possible dangers. It is argued that the latter magnified the catastrophe -both ecological and social-, and the former became the government objective closer to the individual coastal population interests than to the social planner, so that the observed outcome was (obviously the well-known free-rider theoretical inefficient result found in the economic theory with externalities, i.e., the Spanish, and later the French, Atlantic coast were fully polluted. This paper has two main goals. First, at the theoretical level, to show the need to introduce the political decision analysis into the economic theory. Second, as a policy recommendation, it is an appeal for the need of an international maritime protocol, which includes scientific assessment for this kind of situations, places of refuge, and a suitable com pensation scheme from those who are benefited, so that this kind of political decisions and this type of disasters will be repeated Never More (Nunca Mais.

  3. Population and individual elephant response to a catastrophic fire in Pilanesberg National Park.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leigh-Ann Woolley

    Full Text Available In predator-free large herbivore populations, where density-dependent feedbacks occur at the limit where forage resources can no longer support the population, environmental catastrophes may play a significant role in population regulation. The potential role of fire as a stochastic mass-mortality event limiting these populations is poorly understood, so too the behavioural and physiological responses of the affected animals to this type of large disturbance event. During September 2005, a wildfire resulted in mortality of 29 (18% population mortality and injury to 18, African elephants in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa. We examined movement and herd association patterns of six GPS-collared breeding herds, and evaluated population physiological response through faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (stress levels. We investigated population size, structure and projected growth rates using a simulation model. After an initial flight response post-fire, severely injured breeding herds reduced daily displacement with increased daily variability, reduced home range size, spent more time in non-tourist areas and associated less with other herds. Uninjured, or less severely injured, breeding herds also shifted into non-tourist areas post-fire, but in contrast, increased displacement rate (both mean and variability, did not adjust home range size and formed larger herds post-fire. Adult cow stress hormone levels increased significantly post-fire, whereas juvenile and adult bull stress levels did not change significantly. Most mortality occurred to the juvenile age class causing a change in post-fire population age structure. Projected population growth rate remained unchanged at 6.5% p.a., and at current fecundity levels, the population would reach its previous level three to four years post-fire. The natural mortality patterns seen in elephant populations during stochastic events, such as droughts, follows that of the classic mortality pattern

  4. Modified Aggressive Packet Combining Scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhunia, C.T.

    2010-06-01

    In this letter, a few schemes are presented to improve the performance of aggressive packet combining scheme (APC). To combat error in computer/data communication networks, ARQ (Automatic Repeat Request) techniques are used. Several modifications to improve the performance of ARQ are suggested by recent research and are found in literature. The important modifications are majority packet combining scheme (MjPC proposed by Wicker), packet combining scheme (PC proposed by Chakraborty), modified packet combining scheme (MPC proposed by Bhunia), and packet reversed packet combining (PRPC proposed by Bhunia) scheme. These modifications are appropriate for improving throughput of conventional ARQ protocols. Leung proposed an idea of APC for error control in wireless networks with the basic objective of error control in uplink wireless data network. We suggest a few modifications of APC to improve its performance in terms of higher throughput, lower delay and higher error correction capability. (author)

  5. Transmission usage cost allocation schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abou El Ela, A.A.; El-Sehiemy, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents different suggested transmission usage cost allocation (TCA) schemes to the system individuals. Different independent system operator (ISO) visions are presented using the proportional rata and flow-based TCA methods. There are two proposed flow-based TCA schemes (FTCA). The first FTCA scheme generalizes the equivalent bilateral exchanges (EBE) concepts for lossy networks through two-stage procedure. The second FTCA scheme is based on the modified sensitivity factors (MSF). These factors are developed from the actual measurements of power flows in transmission lines and the power injections at different buses. The proposed schemes exhibit desirable apportioning properties and are easy to implement and understand. Case studies for different loading conditions are carried out to show the capability of the proposed schemes for solving the TCA problem. (author)

  6. A beacon interval shifting scheme for interference mitigation in body area networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seungku; Kim, Seokhwan; Kim, Jin-Woo; Eom, Doo-Seop

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the issue of interference avoidance in body area networks (BANs). IEEE 802.15 Task Group 6 presented several schemes to reduce such interference, but these schemes are still not proper solutions for BANs. We present a novel distributed TDMA-based beacon interval shifting scheme that reduces interference in the BANs. A design goal of the scheme is to avoid the wakeup period of each BAN coinciding with other networks by employing carrier sensing before a beacon transmission. We analyze the beacon interval shifting scheme and investigate the proper back-off length when the channel is busy. We compare the performance of the proposed scheme with the schemes presented in IEEE 802.15 Task Group 6 using an OMNeT++ simulation. The simulation results show that the proposed scheme has a lower packet loss, energy consumption, and delivery-latency than the schemes of IEEE 802.15 Task Group 6.

  7. Theories of Lethal Mutagenesis: From Error Catastrophe to Lethal Defection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejero, Héctor; Montero, Francisco; Nuño, Juan Carlos

    2016-01-01

    RNA viruses get extinct in a process called lethal mutagenesis when subjected to an increase in their mutation rate, for instance, by the action of mutagenic drugs. Several approaches have been proposed to understand this phenomenon. The extinction of RNA viruses by increased mutational pressure was inspired by the concept of the error threshold. The now classic quasispecies model predicts the existence of a limit to the mutation rate beyond which the genetic information of the wild type could not be efficiently transmitted to the next generation. This limit was called the error threshold, and for mutation rates larger than this threshold, the quasispecies was said to enter into error catastrophe. This transition has been assumed to foster the extinction of the whole population. Alternative explanations of lethal mutagenesis have been proposed recently. In the first place, a distinction is made between the error threshold and the extinction threshold, the mutation rate beyond which a population gets extinct. Extinction is explained from the effect the mutation rate has, throughout the mutational load, on the reproductive ability of the whole population. Secondly, lethal defection takes also into account the effect of interactions within mutant spectra, which have been shown to be determinant for the understanding the extinction of RNA virus due to an augmented mutational pressure. Nonetheless, some relevant issues concerning lethal mutagenesis are not completely understood yet, as so survival of the flattest, i.e. the development of resistance to lethal mutagenesis by evolving towards mutationally more robust regions of sequence space, or sublethal mutagenesis, i.e., the increase of the mutation rate below the extinction threshold which may boost the adaptability of RNA virus, increasing their ability to develop resistance to drugs (including mutagens). A better design of antiviral therapies will still require an improvement of our knowledge about lethal

  8. Psychological flexibility and catastrophizing as associated change mechanisms during online Acceptance & Commitment Therapy for chronic pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trompetter, H.R.; Bohlmeijer, Ernst Thomas; Fox, Gerardus J.A.; Schreurs, Karlein Maria Gertrudis

    2015-01-01

    The underlying mechanisms of the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural interventions for chronic pain need further clarification. The role of, and associations between, pain-related psychological flexibility (PF) and pain catastrophizing (PC) were examined during a randomized controlled trial on

  9. Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

  10. Dyadic analysis of child and parent trait and state pain catastrophizing in the process of children's pain communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birnie, Kathryn A; Chambers, Christine T; Chorney, Jill; Fernandez, Conrad V; McGrath, Patrick J

    2016-04-01

    When explored separately, child and parent catastrophic thoughts about child pain show robust negative relations with child pain. The objective of this study was to conduct a dyadic analysis to elucidate intrapersonal and interpersonal influences of child and parent pain catastrophizing on aspects of pain communication, including observed behaviours and perceptions of child pain. A community sample of 171 dyads including children aged 8 to 12 years (89 girls) and parents (135 mothers) rated pain catastrophizing (trait and state versions) and child pain intensity and unpleasantness following a cold pressor task. Child pain tolerance was also assessed. Parent-child interactions during the cold pressor task were coded for parent attending, nonattending, and other talk, and child symptom complaints and other talk. Data were analyzed using the actor-partner interdependence model and hierarchical multiple regressions. Children reporting higher state pain catastrophizing had greater symptom complaints regardless of level of parent state pain catastrophizing. Children reporting low state pain catastrophizing had similar high levels of symptom complaints, but only when parents reported high state pain catastrophizing. Higher child and parent state and/or trait pain catastrophizing predicted their own ratings of higher child pain intensity and unpleasantness, with child state pain catastrophizing additionally predicting parent ratings. Higher pain tolerance was predicted by older child age and lower child state pain catastrophizing. These newly identified interpersonal effects highlight the relevance of the social context to children's pain expressions and parent perceptions of child pain. Both child and parent pain catastrophizing warrant consideration when managing child pain.

  11. Modeling subjective well-being in individuals with chronic pain and a physical disability: the role of pain control and pain catastrophizing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furrer, Angela; Michel, Gisela; Terrill, Alexandra L; Jensen, Mark P; Müller, Rachel

    2017-10-23

    To investigate the associations between subjective well-being and pain intensity, pain interference, and depression in individuals with physical disabilities. We hypothesized that (1) pain control and (2) pain catastrophizing mediate the effects of subjective well-being on pain intensity, pain interference, and depression. Analyses of cross-sectional data from 96 individuals diagnosed with spinal cord injury, multiple sclerosis, neuromuscular disease, or post-polio syndrome, with average pain intensity of ≥4 (0-10) on at least half the days in the past month. Two models tested study hypotheses using structural equation. Both models showed acceptable model fit. Pain catastrophizing significantly mediated the effect of subjective well-being on pain intensity and pain interference, but not on depression. Pain control did not significantly mediate the effect of subjective well-being on pain intensity, pain interference, or depression. Path coefficients showed significant direct effects of subjective well-being on pain control (β = 0.39), pain catastrophizing (β = -0.61), pain interference (β = -0.48; -0.42), and depression (β = -0.75; -0.78). This study supports the potential of enhancing subjective well-being and lowering pain catastrophizing for reducing pain intensity, pain interference, and depressive symptoms in individuals with chronic pain and a physical disability. The findings indicate that true experiments to test for causal associations are warranted. Implications for rehabilitation The majority of individuals with physical disabilities report having persistent moderate-to-severe pain that may negatively limit daily activities and quality of life. The present cross-sectional study indicates that individuals who reported greater subjective well-being showed significantly lower pain intensity via the mediating effect of lower pain catastrophizing. Since sample size and respective power are low, these findings should be taken as first

  12. Pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of 45 patients from the "CAPS Registry".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Gregory, Simone; de Meis, Ernesto; Rodrigues, Carlos Ewerton Maia; Aikawa, Nádia Emi; de Carvalho, Jozélio Freire; Springer, Janusz; Niedzwiecki, Maciej; Espinosa, Gerard

    2014-02-01

    Given the lack of information about catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric patients, the objective of the current study was to describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome of pediatric patients with catastrophic APS and compare them with the adult patients with catastrophic APS. We identified patients who were under 18years of age at time of catastrophic APS diagnosis included in the international registry of patients with catastrophic APS (CAPS Registry). Their main demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome were described and compared with those of adult patients with catastrophic APS. From the 446 patients included in the CAPS Registry as of May 2013, 45 (10.3%) patients developed 46 catastrophic events before 18years of age (one patient presented two episodes). Overall, 32 (71.1%) patients were female and the mean age was 11.5±4.6years (range, 3months-18years). A total of 31 (68.9%) patients suffered from primary APS and 13 (28.9%) from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The main differences between the two groups of patients were the higher prevalence of infections as precipitating factor for catastrophic event in the pediatric population (60.9% versus 26.8% in the adult population, p<0.001) and of peripheral vessel thrombosis (52.2% versus 34.3%, p=0.017). In addition, catastrophic APS was the first manifestation of APS more frequently in pediatric patients (86.6% versus 45.2%, p<0.001). Interestingly, pediatric patients showed a trend of lower mortality, although the difference was not statistically significant (26.1% versus 40.2%; odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-3.79; p=0.063). No differences were found neither in the laboratory features nor in the isolated or combination treatments between groups. Catastrophic APS in pediatric patients is a rare disease. There are minimal differences in the clinical and laboratory features, treatment, and

  13. Understanding security failures of two authentication and key agreement schemes for telecare medicine information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Dheerendra

    2015-03-01

    Smart card based authentication and key agreement schemes for telecare medicine information systems (TMIS) enable doctors, nurses, patients and health visitors to use smart cards for secure login to medical information systems. In recent years, several authentication and key agreement schemes have been proposed to present secure and efficient solution for TMIS. Most of the existing authentication schemes for TMIS have either higher computation overhead or are vulnerable to attacks. To reduce the computational overhead and enhance the security, Lee recently proposed an authentication and key agreement scheme using chaotic maps for TMIS. Xu et al. also proposed a password based authentication and key agreement scheme for TMIS using elliptic curve cryptography. Both the schemes provide better efficiency from the conventional public key cryptography based schemes. These schemes are important as they present an efficient solution for TMIS. We analyze the security of both Lee's scheme and Xu et al.'s schemes. Unfortunately, we identify that both the schemes are vulnerable to denial of service attack. To understand the security failures of these cryptographic schemes which are the key of patching existing schemes and designing future schemes, we demonstrate the security loopholes of Lee's scheme and Xu et al.'s scheme in this paper.

  14. Modeling the Effect of Privatization on Behavior of Hurst Exponent Using Stochastic Catastrophe Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    In this paper using the global Hurst exponent, the impact of privatization of public companies in Iran on the degree of efficiency in Tehran Stock Exchange is assessed. The results show that selling public companies' share in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) leads to a structural break in degree of market development. To model this phenomenon a catastrophe approach is used and it is demonstrated that this structural break can be better explained by a cusp catastrophe model.

  15. Statistical and machine learning approaches for the minimization of trigger errors in parametric earthquake catastrophe bonds

    OpenAIRE

    Calvet, Laura

    2017-01-01

    Catastrophe bonds are financial instruments designed to transfer risk of monetary losses arising from earthquakes, hurricanes, or floods to the capital markets. The insurance and reinsurance industry, governments, and private entities employ them frequently to obtain coverage. Parametric catastrophe bonds base their payments on physical features. For instance, given parameters such as magnitude of the earthquake and the location of its epicentre, the bond may pay a fixed amount or not pay at ...

  16. A CATASTROPHIC-CUM-RESTORATIVE QUEUING SYSTEM WITH CORRELATED BATCH ARRIVALS AND VARIABLE CAPACITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Kumar

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study a catastrophic-cum-restorative queuing system with correlated batch arrivals and service in batches of variable sizes. We perform the transient analysis of the queuing model. We obtain the Laplace Transform of the probability generating function of system size. Finally, some particular cases of the model have been derived and discussed. Keywords: Queue length, Catastrophes, Correlated batch arrivals, Broadband services, Variable service capacity, and Restoration.

  17. Development of the Catastrophe Bonds and their correlation with other financial instruments

    OpenAIRE

    Čavojec, Ján

    2009-01-01

    This master thesis discusses the niche of reinsurance business -- catastrophe bonds. It provides a brief description of reinsurance in general, insurance-linked securities and catastrophe bonds. The goal of this thesis is to describe the development of cat bond market and the influence of economic and natural shocks on it. In order to analyze the effect, quarter issuance data are used together with Swiss Re Cat Bonds return indexes. In addition, several other variables (i.e. Munich Re and Swi...

  18. The shareholder wealth effects of insurance securitization: preliminary evidence from the catastrophe bond market

    OpenAIRE

    Hagendorff, Bjoern; Hagendorff, Jens; Keasey, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    Insurance securitization has long been hailed as an important tool to increase theunderwriting capacity for companies exposed to catastrophe-related risks. However, globalvolumes of insurance securitization have remained surprisingly low to date which raisesquestions over its benefits. In this paper, we examine changes in the market value ofinsurance and reinsurance firms which announce their engagement in insurance securitizationby issuing catastrophe (Cat) bonds. Consistent with the hithert...

  19. Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda

    OpenAIRE

    Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

    2015-01-01

    Background Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Methods Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined ...

  20. Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mwai

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

  1. An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiangcheng; Zhang, Chunmin; Liu, Jifa; Li, Zhen; Yang, Xuan

    2018-04-01

    A forestry catastrophe insurance model due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics is developed by employing metapopulation dynamics and statistics properties of Mean Escape Time (MET). The probability of outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss and the catastrophe loss payment time with MET are respectively investigated. Forestry loss data in China is used for model simulation. Experimental results are concluded as: (1) The model with analytical results is shown to be a better fit; (2) Within the condition of big area of patches and structure of patches, high system factor, low extinction rate, high multiplicative noises, and additive noises with a high cross-correlated strength range, an outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss or catastrophe loss payment due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics could occur; (3) An optimal catastrophe loss payment time MET due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics can be identified by taking proper value of multiplicative noises and limits the additive noises on a low range of value, and cross-correlated strength at a high range of value.

  2. Pricing Zero-Coupon Catastrophe Bonds Using EVT with Doubly Stochastic Poisson Arrivals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zonggang Ma

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The frequency and severity of climate abnormal change displays an irregular upward cycle as global warming intensifies. Therefore, this paper employs a doubly stochastic Poisson process with Black Derman Toy (BDT intensity to describe the catastrophic characteristics. By using the Property Claim Services (PCS loss index data from 2001 to 2010 provided by the US Insurance Services Office (ISO, the empirical result reveals that the BDT arrival rate process is superior to the nonhomogeneous Poisson and lognormal intensity process due to its smaller RMSE, MAE, MRPE, and U and larger E and d. Secondly, to depict extreme features of catastrophic risks, this paper adopts the Peak Over Threshold (POT in extreme value theory (EVT to characterize the tail characteristics of catastrophic loss distribution. And then the loss distribution is analyzed and assessed using a quantile-quantile (QQ plot to visually check whether the PCS index observations meet the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD assumption. Furthermore, this paper derives a pricing formula for zero-coupon catastrophe bonds with a stochastic interest rate environment and aggregate losses generated by a compound doubly stochastic Poisson process under the forward measure. Finally, simulation results verify pricing model predictions and show how catastrophic risks and interest rate risk affect the prices of zero-coupon catastrophe bonds.

  3. A comparison of catastrophic injury incidence rates by Provincial Rugby Union in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badenhorst, Marelise; Verhagen, Evert A L M; van Mechelen, Willem; Lambert, Michael I; Viljoen, Wayne; Readhead, Clint; Baerecke, Gail; Brown, James C

    2017-07-01

    To compare catastrophic injury rates between the 14 South African Provincial Rugby Unions. A prospective, population-based study conducted among all South African Unions between 2008-2014. Player numbers in each Union were obtained from South African Rugby's 2013 Census. Catastrophic injuries were analysed from BokSmart's serious injury database. Incidence rates with 95% Confidence Intervals were calculated. Catastrophic injuries (Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries) within Unions were compared statistically, using a Poisson regression with Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) and a 95% confidence level (pUnion ranged from 1.8 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-6.5) to 7.9 (95% CI: 0.0-28.5) per 100000 players per year. The highest incidence rate of permanent outcome Acute Spinal Cord Injuries was reported at 7.1 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-17.6). Compared to this Union, five (n=5/14, 36%) of the Unions had significantly lower incidence rates of Acute Spinal Cord Injuries. Proportionately, three Unions had more Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and three other Unions had more catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries. There were significant differences in the catastrophic injury incidence rates amongst the Provincial Unions in South Africa. Future studies should investigate the underlying reasons contributing to these provincial differences. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Financial catastrophe and poverty impacts of out-of-pocket health payments in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özgen Narcı, Hacer; Şahin, İsmet; Yıldırım, Hasan Hüseyin

    2015-04-01

    To determine the prevalence of catastrophic health payments, examine the determinants of catastrophic expenditures, and assess the poverty impact of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Data came from the 2004 to 2010 Household Budget Survey. Catastrophic health spending was defined by health payments as percentage of household consumption expenditures and capacity to pay at a set of thresholds. The poverty impact was evaluated by poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP health payments. The percentage of households that catastrophically spent their consumption expenditure and capacity to pay increased from 2004 to 2010, regardless of the threshold used. Households with a share of more than 40% health spending in both consumption expenditure and capacity to pay accounted for less than 1% across years. However, when a series of potential confounders were taken into account, the study found statistically significantly increased risk for the lowest threshold and decreased risk for the highest threshold in 2010 relative to the base year. Household income, size, education, senior and under 5-year-old members, health insurance, disabled members, payment for inpatient care and settlement were also statistically significant predictors of catastrophic health spending. Overall, poverty head counts were below 1%. Poverty gaps reached a maximum of 0.098%, with an overall increase in 2010 compared to 2004. Catastrophe and poverty increased from 2004 to 2010. However, given that the realization of some recent policies will affect the financial burden of OOP payments on households, the findings of this study need to be replicated.

  5. Performance comparison of renewable incentive schemes using optimal control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oak, Neeraj; Lawson, Daniel; Champneys, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Many governments worldwide have instituted incentive schemes for renewable electricity producers in order to meet carbon emissions targets. These schemes aim to boost investment and hence growth in renewable energy industries. This paper examines four such schemes: premium feed-in tariffs, fixed feed-in tariffs, feed-in tariffs with contract for difference and the renewable obligations scheme. A generalised mathematical model of industry growth is presented and fitted with data from the UK onshore wind industry. The model responds to subsidy from each of the four incentive schemes. A utility or ‘fitness’ function that maximises installed capacity at some fixed time in the future while minimising total cost of subsidy is postulated. Using this function, the optimal strategy for provision and timing of subsidy for each scheme is calculated. Finally, a comparison of the performance of each scheme, given that they use their optimal control strategy, is presented. This model indicates that the premium feed-in tariff and renewable obligation scheme produce the joint best results. - Highlights: • Stochastic differential equation model of renewable energy industry growth and prices, using UK onshore wind data 1992–2010. • Cost of production reduces as cumulative installed capacity of wind energy increases, consistent with the theory of learning. • Studies the effect of subsidy using feed-in tariff schemes, and the ‘renewable obligations’ scheme. • We determine the optimal timing and quantity of subsidy required to maximise industry growth and minimise costs. • The premium feed-in tariff scheme and the renewable obligations scheme produce the best results under optimal control

  6. A snapshot of catastrophic post-disaster health expenses after Typhoon Haiyan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espallardo, Noel; Geroy, Lester Sam; Villanueva, Raul; Gavino, Roy; Nievera, Lucille Angela; Hall, Julie Lyn

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides a snapshot of the health-care costs, out-of-pocket expenditures and available safety nets post-Typhoon Haiyan. This descriptive study used a survey and document review to report direct and indirect health-care costs and existing financial protection mechanisms used by households in two municipalities in the Philippines at one week and at seven months post-Haiyan. Reported out-of-pocket health-care expenses were high immediately after the disaster and increased after seven months. The mean reported out-of-pocket expenses were higher than the reported average household income (US$ 24 to US$ 59). The existing local and national mechanisms for health financing were promising and should be strengthened to reduce out-of-pocket expenses and protect people from catastrophic expenditures. Longer-term mechanisms are needed to ensure financial protection, especially among the poorest, beyond three months when most free services and medicines have ended. Preparedness should include prior registration of households that would ensure protection when a disaster comes.

  7. A snapshot of catastrophic post-disaster health expenses post-Haiyan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noel Espallardo

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: This paper provides a snapshot of the health-care costs, out-of-pocket expenditures and available safety nets post-Typhoon Haiyan. Methods: This descriptive study used a survey and document review to report direct and indirect health-care costs and existing financial protection mechanisms used by households in two municipalities in the Philippines at one week and at seven months post-Haiyan. Results: Reported out-of-pocket health-care expenses were high immediately after the disaster and increased after seven months. The mean reported out-of-pocket expenses were higher than the reported average household income (US$ 24 to US$ 59. Discussion: The existing local and national mechanisms for health financing were promising and should be strengthened to reduce out-of-pocket expenses and protect people from catastrophic expenditures. Longer-term mechanisms are needed to ensure financial protection, especially among the poorest, beyond three months when most free services and medicines have ended. Preparedness should include prior registration of households that would ensure protection when a disaster comes.

  8. High Order Semi-Lagrangian Advection Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malaga, Carlos; Mandujano, Francisco; Becerra, Julian

    2014-11-01

    In most fluid phenomena, advection plays an important roll. A numerical scheme capable of making quantitative predictions and simulations must compute correctly the advection terms appearing in the equations governing fluid flow. Here we present a high order forward semi-Lagrangian numerical scheme specifically tailored to compute material derivatives. The scheme relies on the geometrical interpretation of material derivatives to compute the time evolution of fields on grids that deform with the material fluid domain, an interpolating procedure of arbitrary order that preserves the moments of the interpolated distributions, and a nonlinear mapping strategy to perform interpolations between undeformed and deformed grids. Additionally, a discontinuity criterion was implemented to deal with discontinuous fields and shocks. Tests of pure advection, shock formation and nonlinear phenomena are presented to show performance and convergence of the scheme. The high computational cost is considerably reduced when implemented on massively parallel architectures found in graphic cards. The authors acknowledge funding from Fondo Sectorial CONACYT-SENER Grant Number 42536 (DGAJ-SPI-34-170412-217).

  9. Asynchronous schemes for CFD at extreme scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konduri, Aditya; Donzis, Diego

    2013-11-01

    Recent advances in computing hardware and software have made simulations an indispensable research tool in understanding fluid flow phenomena in complex conditions at great detail. Due to the nonlinear nature of the governing NS equations, simulations of high Re turbulent flows are computationally very expensive and demand for extreme levels of parallelism. Current large simulations are being done on hundreds of thousands of processing elements (PEs). Benchmarks from these simulations show that communication between PEs take a substantial amount of time, overwhelming the compute time, resulting in substantial waste in compute cycles as PEs remain idle. We investigate a novel approach based on widely used finite-difference schemes in which computations are carried out asynchronously, i.e. synchronization of data among PEs is not enforced and computations proceed regardless of the status of messages. This drastically reduces PE idle time and results in much larger computation rates. We show that while these schemes remain stable, their accuracy is significantly affected. We present new schemes that maintain accuracy under asynchronous conditions and provide a viable path towards exascale computing. Performance of these schemes will be shown for simple models like Burgers' equation.

  10. Coordinated renewable energy support schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morthorst, P.E.; Jensen, S.G.

    2006-01-01

    . The first example covers countries with regional power markets that also regionalise their support schemes, the second countries with separate national power markets that regionalise their support schemes. The main findings indicate that the almost ideal situation exists if the region prior to regionalising...

  11. CANONICAL BACKWARD DIFFERENTIATION SCHEMES FOR ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper describes a new nonlinear backward differentiation schemes for the numerical solution of nonlinear initial value problems of first order ordinary differential equations. The schemes are based on rational interpolation obtained from canonical polynomials. They are A-stable. The test problems show that they give ...

  12. Multiorgan failure and antiphospholipid antibodies: the catastrophic antiphospholipid (Asherson's) syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asherson, Ronald A

    2005-01-01

    A review of 250 patients with the catastrophic antiphospholipid (Asherson's) syndrome (CAPS) taken from the web site organized by the Europhospholipid Group (http://www.med.ub.es/MIMMUN/FORUM/CAPS.HTM) is presented in this paper. A short historical overview of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is followed by a description of the "triggering" factors, associated autoimmune diseases, clinical presentation, presumed pathogenesis, prognosis, mode of death and suggested therapies. Triggering factors are present in approximately 50% of patients and consist predominantly of infections, trauma, including minor surgical procedures such as biopsies, obstetric-related multiorgan failure and malignancy-associated CAPS. The patients present mainly with multiorgan failure resulting from predominantly small vessel occlusions affecting mainly intra-abdominal organs such as bowel, liver, pancreas, and adrenals, although large vessel occlusions do occur and comprise mainly deep vein thromboses (DVT) of the veins of the lower limbs and arterial occlusions causing strokes and peripheral gangrene. They do not however dominate the clinical picture. The condition differs considerably from the simple/classic APS in several respects, viz. the rapid development of multiorgan failure following the above-mentioned identifiable precipitating factors, the involvement of unusual organs such as bowel, reproductive organs, and bone marrow, complicating features of disseminated intravascular coagulation in 20% of cases, the acute (adult) respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in one third of patients, and severe thrombocytopenia; these not being encountered in the simple/classic APS. Treatment consisting of regular and repeated plasma exchanges using fresh frozen plasma, and IV immunoglobulins in addition to parenteral steroids and anticoagulation are necessary to improve the survival in a condition where the mortality is still of the order of 50%. Treatment may have to be continued for several

  13. Numerical Experiments Based on the Catastrophe Model of Solar Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, X. Y.; Ziegler, U.; Mei, Z. X.; Wu, N.; Lin, J.

    2017-11-01

    On the basis of the catastrophe model developed by Isenberg et al., we use the NIRVANA code to perform the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical experiments to look into various behaviors of the coronal magnetic configuration that includes a current-carrying flux rope used to model the prominence levitating in the corona. These behaviors include the evolution in equilibrium heights of the flux rope versus the change in the background magnetic field, the corresponding internal equilibrium of the flux rope, dynamic properties of the flux rope after the system loses equilibrium, as well as the impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope. In our calculations, an empirical model of the coronal density distribution given by Sittler & Guhathakurta is used, and the physical diffusion is included. Our experiments show that the deviation of simulations in the equilibrium heights from the theoretical results exists, but is not apparent, and the evolutionary features of the two results are similar. If the flux rope is initially locate at the stable branch of the theoretical equilibrium curve, the flux rope will quickly reach the equilibrium position in the simulation after several rounds of oscillations as a result of the self-adjustment of the system; and the flux rope lose the equilibrium if the initial location of the flux rope is set at the critical point on the theoretical equilibrium curve. Correspondingly, the internal equilibrium of the flux rope can be reached as well, and the deviation from the theoretical results is somewhat apparent since the approximation of the small radius of the flux rope is lifted in our experiments, but such deviation does not affect the global equilibrium in the system. The impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope is consistent with the prediction of the theory. Our calculations indicate that the motion of the flux rope after the loss of equilibrium is consistent with which

  14. Significance of large Neptune-crossing objects for terrestrial catastrophism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steel, D.

    2014-07-01

    Over the past few decades a substantial number of objects have been discovered on orbits beyond Neptune (i.e. transneptunian objects, in various sub-classes), crossing Neptune's orbit (here: the Neptune-crossers of interest), and also others crossing the orbits of any or all of the jovian planets (i.e. Centaurs). These range in size from tens of kilometres across to hundreds of kilometres and more. Although formally classified as minor planets/asteroids, plus a few dwarf planets, the physical reality of these objects is that they are giant comets. That is, they seem to be composed largely of ices and if they were to enter the inner solar system then they would demonstrate the commonly-observed behaviour of comets such as outgassing, and the formation of ion and dust tails. Commonly-observed cometary behaviour, however, also includes fragmentation events and sometimes complete disintegration for no apparent cause (such as tidal disruption or thermal stresses). One might therefore wonder what the implications would be for life on Earth and terrestrial catastrophism if and when one of these objects, say 100 to 500 kilometres in size, dropped into a short-period orbit with perihelion distance (q) less than 1 au; or even q ˜ 5 au, given what Jupiter's gravity might do to it. How often might such events occur? One way to address that question would be to conduct numerical integrations of suitable test orbits and identify how often small-q orbits result, but this comes up against the problem of identifying very-infrequent events (with annual probabilities per object perhaps of order 10^{-12}-10^{-10}. For example, Emel'yanenko et al. [1] recently followed test orbits for approximately 5 × 10^{14} particle-years (8,925 objects with 200 clones of each, for 300 Myr) but because these were selected on the basis of initial values of q only below 36 (rather than ˜30) au many were not immediately Neptune-crossers; however, many test particles did eventually migrate into small

  15. What Is the Economic Burden of Subsidized HIV/AIDS Treatment Services on Patients in Nigeria and Is This Burden Catastrophic to Households?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etiaba, Enyi; Onwujekwe, Obinna; Torpey, Kwasi; Uzochukwu, Benjamin; Chiegil, Robert

    2016-01-01

    A gap in knowledge exists regarding the economic burden on households of subsidized anti-retroviral treatment (ART) programs in Nigeria. This is because patients also incur non-ART drug costs, which may constrain the delivery and utilisation of subsidized services. An exit survey of adults (18+years) attending health facilities for HIV/AIDS treatment was conducted in three states in Nigeria (Adamawa, Akwa Ibom and Anambra). In the states, ART was fully subsidized but there were different payment modalities for other costs of treatment. Data was collected and analysed for direct and indirect costs of treatment of HIV/AIDS and co-morbidities' during out-and in-patient visits. The levels of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) were computed and disaggregated by state, socio-economic status (SES) and urban-rural location of the respondents. Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE) in this study measures the number of respondents whose monthly ART-related household expenditure (for in-patient and out-patient visits) as a proportion of monthly non-food expenditure was greater than 40% and 10% respectively. The average out-patient and in-patient direct costs were $5.49 and $122.10 respectively. Transportation cost was the highest non-medical cost and it was higher than most medical costs. The presence of co-morbidities contributed to household costs. All the costs were catastrophic to households at 10% and 40% thresholds in the three states, to varying degrees. The poorest SES quintile had the highest incidence of CHE for out-patient costs (ptravel costs, and subsidy on other components of HIV treatment services should be introduced to eliminate the persisting inequitable and high cost burden of ART services. Full inclusion of ART services within the benefit package of the National Health Insurance Scheme should be considered.

  16. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chloe J. Taub

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period. All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

  17. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taub, Chloe J; Sturgeon, John A; Johnson, Kevin A; Mackey, Sean C; Darnall, Beth D

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

  18. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:28348505

  19. Cost-based droop scheme for DC microgrid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nutkani, Inam Ullah; Wang, Peng; Loh, Poh Chiang

    2014-01-01

    voltage level, less on optimized operation and control of generation sources. The latter theme is perused in this paper, where cost-based droop scheme is proposed for distributed generators (DGs) in DC microgrids. Unlike traditional proportional power sharing based droop scheme, the proposed scheme......-connected operation. Most importantly, the proposed scheme can reduce overall total generation cost in DC microgrids without centralized controller and communication links. The performance of the proposed scheme has been verified under different load conditions.......DC microgrids are gaining interest due to higher efficiencies of DC distribution compared with AC. The benefits of DC systems have been widely researched for data centers, IT facilities and residential applications. The research focus, however, has been more on system architecture and optimal...

  20. Generalized quantization scheme for two-person non-zero sum games

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nawaz, Ahmad; Toor, A H

    2004-01-01

    We proposed a generalized quantization scheme for non-zero sum games which can be reduced to the two existing quantization schemes under an appropriate set of parameters. Some other important situations are identified which are not apparent in the two existing quantization schemes

  1. hybrid modulation scheme fo rid modulation scheme fo dulation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    control technique is done through simulations and ex control technique .... HYBRID MODULATION SCHEME FOR CASCADED H-BRIDGE INVERTER CELLS. C. I. Odeh ..... and OR operations. Referring to ... MATLAB/SIMULINK environment.

  2. Enhanced ID-Based Authentication Scheme Using OTP in Smart Grid AMI Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Soo Yeo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the vulnerabilities analyses of KL scheme which is an ID-based authentication scheme for AMI network attached SCADA in smart grid and proposes a security-enhanced authentication scheme which satisfies forward secrecy as well as security requirements introduced in KL scheme and also other existing schemes. The proposed scheme uses MDMS which is the supervising system located in an electrical company as a time-synchronizing server in order to synchronize smart devices at home and conducts authentication between smart meter and smart devices using a new secret value generated by an OTP generator every session. The proposed scheme has forward secrecy, so it increases overall security, but its communication and computation overhead reduce its performance slightly, comparing the existing schemes. Nonetheless, hardware specification and communication bandwidth of smart devices will have better conditions continuously, so the proposed scheme would be a good choice for secure AMI environment.

  3. Shame, Catastrophizing, and Negative Partner Responses Are Associated With Lower Sexual and Relationship Satisfaction and More Negative Affect in Men With Peyronie's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Seth; Ferrar, Saskia; Sadikaj, Gentiana; Binik, Yitzchak; Carrier, Serge

    2017-04-03

    Peyronie's disease (PD) has a negative impact on men's sexual functioning and quality of life, but little is known about why some men cope better than others and what the effects of PD are on their relationships. The aims of the present study were to describe negative affect, pain, and relationship and sexual satisfaction in men with PD, and to explore their psychosocial correlates. Participants were 110 men diagnosed with PD. All men completed questionnaires. The main outcome measures were as follows: Global Measure of Sexual Satisfaction, Dyadic Adjustment Scale, McGill Pain Questionnaire, and Negative Affect Scale. The predictor variables were the following: Experience of Shame Scale, Body Esteem Scale, Body Image Self-Consciousness Scale, Index of Male Genital Image, a modified Pain Catastrophizing Scale, and a modified Multidimensional Pain Inventory. Although men with PD had mean sexual/relationship satisfaction and negative affect scores indicating mild impairment, there was a wide range of variation, with 42% to 52% scoring in the clinical range. Catastrophizing was significantly associated with reduced sexual satisfaction and increased negative affect and pain. Shame was also associated with increased negative affect. The significant associations of relationship satisfaction were partner responses and shame. Given the lack of curative treatment in PD, understanding why some men cope better than others may guide therapy. Shame, catastrophizing, and partner responses may be important therapeutic targets.

  4. Good governance for pension schemes

    CERN Document Server

    Thornton, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Regulatory and market developments have transformed the way in which UK private sector pension schemes operate. This has increased demands on trustees and advisors and the trusteeship governance model must evolve in order to remain fit for purpose. This volume brings together leading practitioners to provide an overview of what today constitutes good governance for pension schemes, from both a legal and a practical perspective. It provides the reader with an appreciation of the distinctive characteristics of UK occupational pension schemes, how they sit within the capital markets and their social and fiduciary responsibilities. Providing a holistic analysis of pension risk, both from the trustee and the corporate perspective, the essays cover the crucial role of the employer covenant, financing and investment risk, developments in longevity risk hedging and insurance de-risking, and best practice scheme administration.

  5. Optimum RA reactor fuelling scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strugar, P.; Nikolic, V.

    1965-10-01

    Ideal reactor refueling scheme can be achieved only by continuous fuel elements movement in the core, which is not possible, and thus approximations are applied. One of the possible approximations is discontinuous movement of fuel elements groups in radial direction. This enables higher burnup especially if axial exchange is possible. Analysis of refueling schemes in the RA reactor core and schemes with mixing the fresh and used fuel elements show that 30% higher burnup can be achieved by applying mixing, and even 40% if reactivity due to decrease in experimental space is taken into account. Up to now, mean burnup of 4400 MWd/t has been achieved, and the proposed fueling scheme with reduction of experimental space could achieve mean burnup of 6300 MWd/t which means about 25 Mwd/t per fuel channel [sr

  6. A Novel Iris Segmentation Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen-Chung Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the key steps in the iris recognition system is the accurate iris segmentation from its surrounding noises including pupil, sclera, eyelashes, and eyebrows of a captured eye-image. This paper presents a novel iris segmentation scheme which utilizes the orientation matching transform to outline the outer and inner iris boundaries initially. It then employs Delogne-Kåsa circle fitting (instead of the traditional Hough transform to further eliminate the outlier points to extract a more precise iris area from an eye-image. In the extracted iris region, the proposed scheme further utilizes the differences in the intensity and positional characteristics of the iris, eyelid, and eyelashes to detect and delete these noises. The scheme is then applied on iris image database, UBIRIS.v1. The experimental results show that the presented scheme provides a more effective and efficient iris segmentation than other conventional methods.

  7. Numerical schemes for explosion hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Therme, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    In nuclear facilities, internal or external explosions can cause confinement breaches and radioactive materials release in the environment. Hence, modeling such phenomena is crucial for safety matters. Blast waves resulting from explosions are modeled by the system of Euler equations for compressible flows, whereas Navier-Stokes equations with reactive source terms and level set techniques are used to simulate the propagation of flame front during the deflagration phase. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the creation of efficient numerical schemes to solve these complex models. The work presented here focuses on two major aspects: first, the development of consistent schemes for the Euler equations, then the buildup of reliable schemes for the front propagation. In both cases, explicit in time schemes are used, but we also introduce a pressure correction scheme for the Euler equations. Staggered discretization is used in space. It is based on the internal energy formulation of the Euler system, which insures its positivity and avoids tedious discretization of the total energy over staggered grids. A discrete kinetic energy balance is derived from the scheme and a source term is added in the discrete internal energy balance equation to preserve the exact total energy balance at the limit. High order methods of MUSCL type are used in the discrete convective operators, based solely on material velocity. They lead to positivity of density and internal energy under CFL conditions. This ensures that the total energy cannot grow and we can furthermore derive a discrete entropy inequality. Under stability assumptions of the discrete L8 and BV norms of the scheme's solutions one can prove that a sequence of converging discrete solutions necessarily converges towards the weak solution of the Euler system. Besides it satisfies a weak entropy inequality at the limit. Concerning the front propagation, we transform the flame front evolution equation (the so called

  8. Catastrophic phase transitions and early warnings in a spatial ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernández, A; Fort, H

    2009-01-01

    Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics—like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness—may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyse how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, become more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities of and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid–vapour change of state for a fluid like water

  9. Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Grant

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

  10. Catastrophe Bonds. From Structure to Strategy – A Cluster Analysis at European Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura-Gabriela CONSTANTIN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available As a core activity and discipline of corporate management and corporate governance, risk management is, especially nowadays, a central part in pursuing the sustainable development desiderates, both from the perspective of the firm and of the society as a whole.Considering the negative impact natural catastrophes have on the companies’ and countries’ competitiveness, the development of sustainable financial products that make a contribution to transferring the risk and allocating the capital in case of disasters stands for a continual preoccupation, especially for the (reinsurance industry, while the study of catastrophe bonds – insurance-linked securities – is of interest in the specialized literature. In this context, the scope of the present research is to expand the empirical studies within this field while examining the link between the structure of the catastrophe bonds and the risk management approach employed while accessing the capital markets through this transactions.The methodology entailed clustering a selection of transactions developed by European cedents based on the size of each issue and correlating the results with an innovative score, developed to encompass several important catastrophe bonds structural components.The findings reflect that the general structural elements of the financial transactions reflect closely the corporate approach regarding the innovative risk intermediation instruments for the examined catastrophe bonds deals. The outcomes also emphasize, as expected, that companies with a stronger presence on this market seem to have a more sophisticated risk management approach.

  11. A comparison of regional and global catastrophic hazards associated with energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.; Inhaber, H.

    1983-01-01

    This paper reviews some of what is known about the relative catastrophic hazards, on both a regional and global level, of energy technologies, and proposes a logical framework for their comparison. A review of the Inhaber study results is made indicating the relative position of overall nuclear power related risks. Then, concentration is placed on describing the catastrophic and global hazards of energy technologies. Regionally catastrophic hazards include sabotage and other malicious human activities, in addition to severe accidents caused inadvertantly by man, such as fires, reactor core damage events, chemical and poisonous gas releases, fuel storage fires and explosions, in addition to others. Global risks include such hazards as nuclear proliferation, CO 2 , build-up, oil shortages and possible national conflicts over dwindling energy fuels. The conclusion is drawn that consideration of both regional and global catastrophic risks must be made in making energy decisions, and that further study is necessary to better quantify and compare these risks. A simple decision analytic framework for making energy decisions inclusive of catastrophic risk is proposed

  12. Catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for health and poverty nexus: evidence from Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Séne, Ligane Massamba; Cissé, Momath

    2015-09-01

    Out-of-pocket payments are the primary source through which health expenditure is met in Senegal. However, these payments are financial burdens that lead to impoverishment when they become catastrophic. The purpose of this study is to cast light on the determinants of catastrophic household out-of-pocket health expenditures and to assess their implications on poverty. The 2011 poverty monitoring survey is used in this study. This survey aims to draw poverty profiles and to highlight the socio-economic characteristics of different social groups. In line with the concerns raised by the new Supplemental Poverty Measure, poverty statistics are adjusted to take into account household health expenditures and to estimate their impoverishing effects. To identify the determinants of the magnitude of catastrophic health expenditure, we implement a seemingly unrelated equations system of Tobit regressions to take into account censoring through a conditional mixed-process estimator procedure. We identify major causes of catastrophic expenditures, such as the level of overall health spending, the expensiveness of health goods and services, the characteristics of health facilities, the health stock shocks, the lack of insurance, etc. Results show evidence that catastrophic health expenditures jeopardize household welfare for some people that fall into poverty as a result of negative effects on disposable income and disruption of the material living standards of households. Our findings warrant further policy improvements to minimize the financial risks of out-of-pocket health expenditures and increase the efficiency of health care system for more effective poverty reduction strategies.

  13. Lattice design for the CEPC double ring scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yiwei; Su, Feng; Bai, Sha; Zhang, Yuan; Bian, Tianjian; Wang, Dou; Yu, Chenghui; Gao, Jie

    2018-01-01

    A future Circular Electron Positron Collider (CEPC) has been proposed by China with the main goal of studying the Higgs boson. Its baseline design, chosen on the basis of its performance, is a double ring scheme; an alternative design is a partial double ring scheme which reduces the budget while maintaining an adequate performance. This paper will present the collider ring lattice design for the double ring scheme. The CEPC will also work as a W and a Z factory. For the W and Z modes, except in the RF region, compatible lattices were obtained by scaling down the magnet strength with energy.

  14. Breeding schemes in reindeer husbandry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Rönnegård

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper was to investigate annual genetic gain from selection (G, and the influence of selection on the inbreeding effective population size (Ne, for different possible breeding schemes within a reindeer herding district. The breeding schemes were analysed for different proportions of the population within a herding district included in the selection programme. Two different breeding schemes were analysed: an open nucleus scheme where males mix and mate between owner flocks, and a closed nucleus scheme where the males in non-selected owner flocks are culled to maximise G in the whole population. The theory of expected long-term genetic contributions was used and maternal effects were included in the analyses. Realistic parameter values were used for the population, modelled with 5000 reindeer in the population and a sex ratio of 14 adult females per male. The standard deviation of calf weights was 4.1 kg. Four different situations were explored and the results showed: 1. When the population was randomly culled, Ne equalled 2400. 2. When the whole population was selected on calf weights, Ne equalled 1700 and the total annual genetic gain (direct + maternal in calf weight was 0.42 kg. 3. For the open nucleus scheme, G increased monotonically from 0 to 0.42 kg as the proportion of the population included in the selection programme increased from 0 to 1.0, and Ne decreased correspondingly from 2400 to 1700. 4. In the closed nucleus scheme the lowest value of Ne was 1300. For a given proportion of the population included in the selection programme, the difference in G between a closed nucleus scheme and an open one was up to 0.13 kg. We conclude that for mass selection based on calf weights in herding districts with 2000 animals or more, there are no risks of inbreeding effects caused by selection.

  15. A reduced feedback proportional fair multiuser scheduling scheme

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad; Alnuweiri, Hussein M.; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2011-01-01

    . A slight reduction in the prospected multiuser diversity gains is an acceptable trade-off for great savings in terms of required channel-state-information feedback messages. In this work, we propose a novel proportional fair multiuser switched

  16. Surrounding rock abutment pressure distribution and thickness effect of dynamic catastrophic in fully mechanized sublevel mining stope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xie, G.; Yang, K.; Chang, J.; Wang, L. [Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan (China)

    2006-12-15

    Numerical simulation was carried out to analyse the distribution of surrounding rock stress with coal seams of different thickness (3.0, 5.4, 8.0, 12.0 m) based on engineering geology and exploitation technology of the 151(3) fully mechanized sublevel caving face in Xieqiao colliery. The research indicates that the variation of abutment pressure has obvious difference in coal seams of different thickness. The effect of abutment pressure distribution in seams of different thickness on coal-methane outbursts was analysed. With an increase in thickness of the caving seam, the research illustrates that the elastic energy resilience is reduced and the capability of resisting damage and deformation is strengthened in coal around the stope. The results show that fully mechanized sublevel caving slows down dynamic catastrophes. 7 refs., 4 figs.

  17. Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Hewitt

    2012-03-01

    vie quotidienne des peuples montagnards, les catastrophes environnementales sont bien souvent dépendantes d’autres formes sociales de risque, de vulnérabilité et d’une insécurité corollaire. Pour conclure, la marginalisation des espaces montagnards reste avant tout la conséquence du développement socio-économique de ces territoires, dont les paramètres dépendent des stratégies de développement de l’État et des acteurs métropolitains et internationaux.This chapter presents a view of risk and disaster in the mountains that finds them fully a part of public safety issues in modern states and developments, rather than separated from them. This contrasts with prevailing approaches to disaster focused on natural hazards, “unscheduled” or extreme events, and emergency preparedness; approaches strongly reinforced by mountain stereotypes. Rather, we find the legacies of social and economic histories, especially relations to down-country or metropolitan actors, are decisive in shaping contemporary “mountain realities”. Developments in transportation, resource extraction and tourism that serve state and international agendas can increase rather than reduce risks for mountain populations, and undermine pre-existing strategies to minimise environmental dangers. Above all, we see rapid urbanisation in mountains generally and the Himalaya in particular as highly implicated in exacerbating risks and creating new types of vulnerabilities. Enforced displacement, and concentration of, people in urban agglomerations, is a major part of the modern history of mountain lands that invites more careful exploration. Rapid expansion of built environments and infrastructure, without due regard to hazards and structural safety, introduce new and complex risks, while altering older equations with and to the land and sapping people’s resilience. In the lives of mountain people, environmental hazards are mostly subordinate to other, societal sources of risk and

  18. Catastrophic Health Expenditure After the Implementation of Health Sector Evolution Plan: A Case Study in the West of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakhtiar Piroozi

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: One of the main objectives of health systems is the financial protection against out-of-pocket (OOP health expenditures. OOP health expenditures can lead to catastrophic payments, impoverishment or poverty among households. In Iran, health sector evolution plan (HSEP has been implemented since 2014 in order to achieve universal health coverage and reduce the OOP health expenditures as a percentage of total health expenditures. This study aimed to explore the percentage of households facing catastrophic health expenditures (CHE after the implementation of HSEP and the factors that determine CHE. Methods: A total of 663 households were selected through a cluster sampling based on the census framework of Sanandaj Health Center in July 2015. Data were gathered using face-to-face interviews based on the household section of the World Health Survey questionnaire. In this study, according to the World Health Organization (WHO definition, if household health expenditures were equal to or more than 40% of the household capacity to pay, household was considered to be facing CHE. The determinants of CHE were analyzed using logistic regression model. Results: The rates of households facing CHE were 4.8%. The key determinants of CHE were household economic status, presence of elderly or disabled members in the household and utilization of inpatient or rehabilitation services. Conclusion: The comparison of our findings and those of other studies carried out using a methodology comparable with ours in different parts of Iran before the implementation of HSEP suggests that the implementation of recent reforms has reduced CHE at the household level. Utilization of inpatient and rehabilitation services, the presence of elderly or disabled members in the household and the low economic status of the household would increase the likelihood of facing CHE. These variables should be considered by health policy-makers in order to review and revise content of

  19. Saving Humanity from Catastrophic Cooling with Geo-Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haapala, K.; Singer, S. F.

    2016-02-01

    There are two kinds of ice ages; they are fundamentally different and therefore require different methods of mitigation: (i) Major (Milankovitch-style) glaciations occur on a 100,000-year time-scale and are controlled astronomically. (ii) "Little" ice ages were discovered in ice cores; they have been occurring on an approx. 1000-1500-yr cycle and are likely controlled by the Sun [Ref: Singer & Avery 2007. Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 years]. The current cycle's cooling phase may be imminent - hence there may be urgent need for action. To stop onset of a major (Milankovitch) glaciation 1. Locate a "trigger" - a growing perennial snow/ice field - using satellites 2. Spread soot, to lower the albedo, and use Sun to melt 3. How much soot? How to apply soot? Learn by experimentation To lessen (regional, intermittent) cooling of DOB (Dansgaard-Oeschger-Bond) cycles1. Use greenhouse effect of manmade cirrus (ice particles) [Ref: Singer 1988. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 38:228 - 239]2. Inject water droplets (mist) near tropopause 3. Trace dispersion of cirrus cloud by satellite and observe warming at surface 4. How much water; over what area? How often to inject? Learn by experimentation Many scientific questions remain. While certainly interesting and important, there is really no need to delay the crucial and urgent tests of geo-engineering, designed to validate schemes of mitigation. Such proposed tests involve only minor costs and present negligible risks to the environment.

  20. Pain Catastrophizing in Borderline Morbidly Obese and Morbidly Obese Individuals with Osteoarthritic Knee Pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara J Somers

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: There is limited information about how morbidly obese osteoarthritis (OA patients cope with the pain they experience. Pain catastrophizing is an important predictor of pain and adjustment in persons with persistent pain. This may be particularly relevant in the morbidly obese (body mass index [BMI] of 40 kg/m2 or greater OA population at risk for increased pain. The present study first examined whether borderline morbidly obese and morbidly obese OA patients report higher levels of pain catastrophizing than a sample of OA patients in the overweight and obese category (BMI between 25 kg/m2 and 34 kg/m2. Next, it examined how pain catastrophizing is related to important indexes of pain and adjustment in borderline morbidly obese and morbidly obese OA patients.

  1. Optimization of a middle atmosphere diagnostic scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akmaev, Rashid A.

    1997-06-01

    A new assimilative diagnostic scheme based on the use of a spectral model was recently tested on the CIRA-86 empirical model. It reproduced the observed climatology with an annual global rms temperature deviation of 3.2 K in the 15-110 km layer. The most important new component of the scheme is that the zonal forcing necessary to maintain the observed climatology is diagnosed from empirical data and subsequently substituted into the simulation model at the prognostic stage of the calculation in an annual cycle mode. The simulation results are then quantitatively compared with the empirical model, and the above mentioned rms temperature deviation provides an objective measure of the `distance' between the two climatologies. This quantitative criterion makes it possible to apply standard optimization procedures to the whole diagnostic scheme and/or the model itself. The estimates of the zonal drag have been improved in this study by introducing a nudging (Newtonian-cooling) term into the thermodynamic equation at the diagnostic stage. A proper optimal adjustment of the strength of this term makes it possible to further reduce the rms temperature deviation of simulations down to approximately 2.7 K. These results suggest that direct optimization can successfully be applied to atmospheric model parameter identification problems of moderate dimensionality.

  2. Forecasting scenarios of collision catastrophes produced by celestial body falls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shor, V.; Kochetova, O.; Chernetenko, Y.; Zheleznov, N.; Deryugin, V.; Zaitsev, A.

    2014-07-01

    The subject under discussion arose in the course of developing a computer program, which gives the possibility for numerical and graphical modeling of the scenarios of catastrophes caused by collisions of cosmic bodies with the Earth. It is expected that this program can be used for computer-assisted training of the personnel of units of the Ministry for Emergency Situations in the case of a situation caused by the fall of a celestial body on the Earth. Also, it is anticipated that the program can be used in real situations when a dangerous body is discovered on an orbit leading to an imminent collision with the Earth. From the scientific point of view, both variants of use require solving of analogous tasks. In what follows, we discuss both variants. 1. The computation of the circumstances for a fall on the Earth (or approach within short distance) of a real body begins with the determination of its orbit from the observations available using the least-squares method. The mean square error of the representation of the observations on the base of the initial values of the coordinates and the velocities is computed, as well as their covariance matrix. Then, the trajectory of the body's motion is followed by numerical integration starting from the osculating epoch to the collision with the Earth or to its flyby. The computer program takes into account the various cases: at the initial moment, the body can move away from or approach the Earth, it can be outside the sphere of action or inside it. At the moment, when the body enters the sphere of action, the coordinates of the center of the dispersion ellipse on the target plane are computed as well as the dimensions of its axes. Using these data, the probability of collision with the Earth is calculated. Then, the point of penetration of the body into the Earth's atmosphere at a given height above the level of the Earth geoid is determined. In case the body is passing by the Earth, the minimum distance of the body from

  3. Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Anthony; Maslin, Mark; Montgomery, Hugh; Johnson, Anne M; Ekins, Paul

    2011-05-13

    The health effects of climate change have had relatively little attention from climate scientists and governments. Climate change will be a major threat to population health in the current century through its potential effects on communicable disease, heat stress, food and water security, extreme weather events, vulnerable shelter and population migration. This paper addresses three health-sector strategies to manage the health effects of climate change-promotion of mitigation, tackling the pathways that lead to ill-health and strengthening health systems. Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is affordable, and low-carbon technologies are available now or will be in the near future. Pathways to ill-health can be managed through better information, poverty reduction, technological innovation, social and cultural change and greater coordination of national and international institutions. Strengthening health systems requires increased investment in order to provide effective public health responses to climate-induced threats to health, equitable treatment of illness, promotion of low-carbon lifestyles and renewable energy solutions within health facilities. Mitigation and adaptation strategies will produce substantial benefits for health, such as reductions in obesity and heart disease, diabetes, stress and depression, pneumonia and asthma, as well as potential cost savings within the health sector. The case for mitigating climate change by reducing GHGs is overwhelming. The need to build population resilience to the global health threat from already unavoidable climate change is real and urgent. Action must not be delayed by contrarians, nor by catastrophic fatalists who say it is all too late. © 2011 Royal Society

  4. Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

    2014-04-01

    The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

  5. Optimism Moderates the Influence of Pain Catastrophizing on Shoulder Pain Outcome: A Longitudinal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronado, Rogelio A; Simon, Corey B; Lentz, Trevor A; Gay, Charles W; Mackie, Lauren N; George, Steven Z

    2017-01-01

    Study Design Secondary analysis of prospectively collected data. Background An abundance of evidence has highlighted the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on clinical outcomes. Less is known about the interaction of positive psychological resources with these pain-associated distress factors. Objective To assess whether optimism moderates the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on 3-month clinical outcomes in patients with shoulder pain. Methods Data from 63 individuals with shoulder pain (mean ± SD age, 38.8 ± 14.9 years; 30 female) were examined. Demographic, psychological, and clinical characteristics were obtained at baseline. Validated measures were used to assess optimism (Life Orientation Test-Revised), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), fear avoidance (Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire physical activity subscale), shoulder pain intensity (Brief Pain Inventory), and shoulder function (Pennsylvania Shoulder Score function subscale). Shoulder pain and function were reassessed at 3 months. Regression models assessed the influence of (1) pain catastrophizing and optimism and (2) fear avoidance and optimism. The final multivariable models controlled for factors of age, sex, education, and baseline scores, and included 3-month pain intensity and function as separate dependent variables. Results Shoulder pain (mean difference, -1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.1, -1.2) and function (mean difference, 2.4; 95% CI: 0.3, 4.4) improved over 3 months. In multivariable analyses, there was an interaction between pain catastrophizing and optimism (β = 0.19; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.35) for predicting 3-month shoulder function (F = 16.8, R 2 = 0.69, Poptimism lessened the influence of pain catastrophizing on function. There was no evidence of significant moderation of fear-avoidance beliefs for 3-month shoulder pain (P = .090) or function (P = .092). Conclusion Optimism decreased the negative influence of pain

  6. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

    2002-03-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  7. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg

    2002-01-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  8. Elementary catastrophe theory modelling of Duffing's equation for seismic excitation of nuclear power facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alesso, H.P.

    1979-01-01

    Elementary catastrophe theory can provide conceptual insight into some aspects of a variety of problems in dynamics. It is a qualitative tool with some quantitative results. In this paper, it is applied to forced nonlinear vibrations of seismic disturbances, which may be approximated by Duffin's equation. The behavior of such a system fits naturally into ECT modelling, where changes in parameters of the system lead to 'jump' type behavior. The important conclusion is that nonlinear oscillators can exhibit elementary catastrophes, but the design engineer may be able to manipulate characteristics of the system in order to avoid the 'jump' behavior of the response. (Auth.)

  9. Active control with delay of catastrophic motion and horseshoes chaos in a single well Duffing oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nana Nbendjo, B.R.; Salissou, Y.; Woafo, P.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the control of escape and Melnikov chaos of an harmonically excited particle from a catastrophic (unbounded) single well phi 4 potential is considered. In the linear limit, the range of the control gain parameter leading to good control is obtained and the effect of time delays on the control force is taken into account. The approximate critical external forcing amplitudes for catastrophe and chaos are obtained by using the energy and Melnikov methods. The control efficiency is found by analysing the behaviour of the external critical forcing amplitude of the controlled system as compared to that of the uncontrolled system

  10. Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

    2013-01-01

    Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single-event ove......Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single...

  11. New Schemes for Positive Real Truncation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kari Unneland

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Model reduction, based on balanced truncation, of stable and of positive real systems are considered. An overview over some of the already existing techniques are given: Lyapunov balancing and stochastic balancing, which includes Riccati balancing. A novel scheme for positive real balanced truncation is then proposed, which is a combination of the already existing Lyapunov balancing and Riccati balancing. Using Riccati balancing, the solution of two Riccati equations are needed to obtain positive real reduced order systems. For the suggested method, only one Lyapunov equation and one Riccati equation are solved in order to obtain positive real reduced order systems, which is less computationally demanding. Further it is shown, that in order to get positive real reduced order systems, only one Riccati equation needs to be solved. Finally, this is used to obtain positive real frequency weighted balanced truncation.

  12. Efficient Scheme for Chemical Flooding Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Braconnier Benjamin

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate an efficient implicit scheme for the numerical simulation of chemical enhanced oil recovery technique for oil fields. For the sake of brevity, we only focus on flows with polymer to describe the physical and numerical models. In this framework, we consider a black oil model upgraded with the polymer modeling. We assume the polymer only transported in the water phase or adsorbed on the rock following a Langmuir isotherm. The polymer reduces the water phase mobility which can change drastically the behavior of water oil interfaces. Then, we propose a fractional step technique to resolve implicitly the system. The first step is devoted to the resolution of the black oil subsystem and the second to the polymer mass conservation. In such a way, jacobian matrices coming from the implicit formulation have a moderate size and preserve solvers efficiency. Nevertheless, the coupling between the black-oil subsystem and the polymer is not fully resolved. For efficiency and accuracy comparison, we propose an explicit scheme for the polymer for which large time step is prohibited due to its CFL (Courant-Friedrichs-Levy criterion and consequently approximates accurately the coupling. Numerical experiments with polymer are simulated : a core flood, a 5-spot reservoir with surfactant and ions and a 3D real case. Comparisons are performed between the polymer explicit and implicit scheme. They prove that our polymer implicit scheme is efficient, robust and resolves accurately the coupling physics. The development and the simulations have been performed with the software PumaFlow [PumaFlow (2013 Reference manual, release V600, Beicip Franlab].

  13. Multiuser switched diversity scheduling schemes

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad; Alnuweiri, Hussein M.; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser switched-diversity scheduling schemes were recently proposed in order to overcome the heavy feedback requirements of conventional opportunistic scheduling schemes by applying a threshold-based, distributed, and ordered scheduling mechanism. The main idea behind these schemes is that slight reduction in the prospected multiuser diversity gains is an acceptable trade-off for great savings in terms of required channel-state-information feedback messages. In this work, we characterize the achievable rate region of multiuser switched diversity systems and compare it with the rate region of full feedback multiuser diversity systems. We propose also a novel proportional fair multiuser switched-based scheduling scheme and we demonstrate that it can be optimized using a practical and distributed method to obtain the feedback thresholds. We finally demonstrate by numerical examples that switched-diversity scheduling schemes operate within 0.3 bits/sec/Hz from the ultimate network capacity of full feedback systems in Rayleigh fading conditions. © 2012 IEEE.

  14. Nonlinear secret image sharing scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Sang-Ho; Lee, Gil-Je; Yoo, Kee-Young

    2014-01-01

    Over the past decade, most of secret image sharing schemes have been proposed by using Shamir's technique. It is based on a linear combination polynomial arithmetic. Although Shamir's technique based secret image sharing schemes are efficient and scalable for various environments, there exists a security threat such as Tompa-Woll attack. Renvall and Ding proposed a new secret sharing technique based on nonlinear combination polynomial arithmetic in order to solve this threat. It is hard to apply to the secret image sharing. In this paper, we propose a (t, n)-threshold nonlinear secret image sharing scheme with steganography concept. In order to achieve a suitable and secure secret image sharing scheme, we adapt a modified LSB embedding technique with XOR Boolean algebra operation, define a new variable m, and change a range of prime p in sharing procedure. In order to evaluate efficiency and security of proposed scheme, we use the embedding capacity and PSNR. As a result of it, average value of PSNR and embedding capacity are 44.78 (dB) and 1.74t⌈log2 m⌉ bit-per-pixel (bpp), respectively.

  15. Multiuser switched diversity scheduling schemes

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad

    2012-09-01

    Multiuser switched-diversity scheduling schemes were recently proposed in order to overcome the heavy feedback requirements of conventional opportunistic scheduling schemes by applying a threshold-based, distributed, and ordered scheduling mechanism. The main idea behind these schemes is that slight reduction in the prospected multiuser diversity gains is an acceptable trade-off for great savings in terms of required channel-state-information feedback messages. In this work, we characterize the achievable rate region of multiuser switched diversity systems and compare it with the rate region of full feedback multiuser diversity systems. We propose also a novel proportional fair multiuser switched-based scheduling scheme and we demonstrate that it can be optimized using a practical and distributed method to obtain the feedback thresholds. We finally demonstrate by numerical examples that switched-diversity scheduling schemes operate within 0.3 bits/sec/Hz from the ultimate network capacity of full feedback systems in Rayleigh fading conditions. © 2012 IEEE.

  16. Threshold-Based Multiple Optical Signal Selection Scheme for Free-Space Optical Wavelength Division Multiplexing Systems

    KAUST Repository

    Nam, Sung Sik; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim; Zhang, Lin; Ko, Young-Chai

    2017-01-01

    We propose a threshold-based multiple optical signal selection scheme (TMOS) for free-space optical wavelength division multiplexing systems. With this scheme, we can obtain higher spectral efficiency while reducing the possible complexity

  17. From a Catastrophe Itself to Cata/strophic Reading. The Poetry of Charles Baudelaire in the Account of Jorge Semprúna L’écriture ou la vie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Kasper

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay addresses the instable meaning of the term catastrophe over the course of history. The first part takes leave of the “the tiny fissures” in the continuous catastrophe noted by Walter Benjamin to develop a philology of the cata/strophe. This philology does not only register a given meaning (for instance, of the catastrophe, but intervenes actively as disruption. It insists on the strophe in the catastrophe, transforming catastrophe into cata/strophe that, in fatal situations, permits the poetic potential to become a dynamic force that can, at least on the linguistic level, open toward other dimensions without denying the catastrophe itself. The second part is dedicated to a reading of Jorge Semprún’s autobiographical novel L’écriture ou la vie from the perspective of this philological concept. It seeks to show how Semprún’s citing and reciting of Baudelaire’s strophes in the putrid atmosphere of the Buchenwald concentration camp literally produce, on the level of the signifiers, fresh air to breathe.

  18. Asynchronous Channel-Hopping Scheme under Jamming Attacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongchul Kim

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive radio networks (CRNs are considered an attractive technology to mitigate inefficiency in the usage of licensed spectrum. CRNs allow the secondary users (SUs to access the unused licensed spectrum and use a blind rendezvous process to establish communication links between SUs. In particular, quorum-based channel-hopping (CH schemes have been studied recently to provide guaranteed blind rendezvous in decentralized CRNs without using global time synchronization. However, these schemes remain vulnerable to jamming attacks. In this paper, we first analyze the limitations of quorum-based rendezvous schemes called asynchronous channel hopping (ACH. Then, we introduce a novel sequence sensing jamming attack (SSJA model in which a sophisticated jammer can dramatically reduce the rendezvous success rates of ACH schemes. In addition, we propose a fast and robust asynchronous rendezvous scheme (FRARS that can significantly enhance robustness under jamming attacks. Our numerical results demonstrate that the performance of the proposed scheme vastly outperforms the ACH scheme when there are security concerns about a sequence sensing jammer.

  19. Implicit Block ACK Scheme for IEEE 802.11 WLANs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sthapit, Pranesh; Pyun, Jae-Young

    2016-01-01

    The throughput of IEEE 802.11 standard is significantly bounded by the associated Medium Access Control (MAC) overhead. Because of the overhead, an upper limit exists for throughput, which is bounded, including situations where data rates are extremely high. Therefore, an overhead reduction is necessary to achieve higher throughput. The IEEE 802.11e amendment introduced the block ACK mechanism, to reduce the number of control messages in MAC. Although the block ACK scheme greatly reduces overhead, further improvements are possible. In this letter, we propose an implicit block ACK method that further reduces the overhead associated with IEEE 802.11e’s block ACK scheme. The mathematical analysis results are presented for both the original protocol and the proposed scheme. A performance improvement of greater than 10% was achieved with the proposed implementation.

  20. Electrical Injection Schemes for Nanolasers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lupi, Alexandra; Chung, Il-Sug; Yvind, Kresten

    2014-01-01

    Three electrical injection schemes based on recently demonstrated electrically pumped photonic crystal nanolasers have been numerically investigated: 1) a vertical p-i-n junction through a post structure; 2) a lateral p-i-n junction with a homostructure; and 3) a lateral p-i-n junction....... For this analysis, the properties of different schemes, i.e., electrical resistance, threshold voltage, threshold current, and internal efficiency as energy requirements for optical interconnects are compared and the physics behind the differences is discussed....

  1. Signal multiplexing scheme for LINAC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sujo, C.I.; Mohan, Shyam; Joshi, Gopal; Singh, S.K.; Karande, Jitendra

    2004-01-01

    For the proper operation of the LINAC some signals, RF (radio frequency) as well as LF (low frequency) have to be available at the Master Control Station (MCS). These signals are needed to control, calibrate and characterize the RF fields in the resonators. This can be achieved by proper multiplexing of various signals locally and then routing the selected signals to the MCS. A multiplexing scheme has been designed and implemented, which will allow the signals from the selected cavity to the MCS. High isolation between channels and low insertion loss for a given signal are important issues while selecting the multiplexing scheme. (author)

  2. Capacity-achieving CPM schemes

    OpenAIRE

    Perotti, Alberto; Tarable, Alberto; Benedetto, Sergio; Montorsi, Guido

    2008-01-01

    The pragmatic approach to coded continuous-phase modulation (CPM) is proposed as a capacity-achieving low-complexity alternative to the serially-concatenated CPM (SC-CPM) coding scheme. In this paper, we first perform a selection of the best spectrally-efficient CPM modulations to be embedded into SC-CPM schemes. Then, we consider the pragmatic capacity (a.k.a. BICM capacity) of CPM modulations and optimize it through a careful design of the mapping between input bits and CPM waveforms. The s...

  3. Time-division-multiplex control scheme for voltage multiplier rectifiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin-Han Liu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available A voltage multiplier rectifier with a novel time-division-multiplexing (TDM control scheme for high step-up converters is proposed in this study. In the proposed TDM control scheme, two full-wave voltage doubler rectifiers can be combined to realise a voltage quadrupler rectifier. The proposed voltage quadrupler rectifier can reduce transformer turn ratio and transformer size for high step-up converters and also reduce voltage stress for the output capacitors and rectifier diodes. An N-times voltage rectifier can be straightforwardly produced by extending the concepts from the proposed TDM control scheme. A phase-shift full-bridge (PSFB converter is adopted in the primary side of the proposed voltage quadrupler rectifier to construct a PSFB quadrupler converter. Experimental results for the PSFB quadrupler converter demonstrate the performance of the proposed TDM control scheme for voltage quadrupler rectifiers. An 8-times voltage rectifier is simulated to determine the validity of extending the proposed TDM control scheme to realise an N-times voltage rectifier. Experimental and simulation results show that the proposed TDM control scheme has great potential to be used in high step-up converters.

  4. Rajiv Aarogyasri Community Health Insurance Scheme in Andhra Pradesh, India: a comprehensive analytic view of private public partnership model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Sunita; Mary, Immaculate

    2013-01-01

    The Rajiv Aarogyasri Community Health Insurance (RACHI) in Andhra Pradesh (AP) has been very popular social insurance scheme with a private public partnership model to deal with the problems of catastrophic medical expenditures at tertiary level care for the poor households. A brief analysis of the RACHI scheme based on officially available data and media reports has been undertaken from a public health perspective to understand the nature and financing of partnership and the lessons it provides. The analysis of the annual budget spent on the surgeries in private hospitals compared to tertiary public hospitals shows that the current scheme is not sustainable and pose huge burden on the state exchequers. The private hospital association's in AP, further acts as pressure groups to increase the budget or threaten to withdraw services. Thus, profits are privatized and losses are socialized.

  5. Explicit TE/TM scheme for particle beam simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dohlus, M.; Zagorodnov, I.

    2008-10-01

    In this paper we propose an explicit two-level conservative scheme based on a TE/TM like splitting of the field components in time. Its dispersion properties are adjusted to accelerator problems. It is simpler and faster than the implicit version. It does not have dispersion in the longitudinal direction and the dispersion properties in the transversal plane are improved. The explicit character of the new scheme allows a uniformly stable conformal method without iterations and the scheme can be parallelized easily. It assures energy and charge conservation. A version of this explicit scheme for rotationally symmetric structures is free from the progressive time step reducing for higher order azimuthal modes as it takes place for Yee's explicit method used in the most popular electrodynamics codes. (orig.)

  6. Improving multivariate Horner schemes with Monte Carlo tree search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuipers, J.; Plaat, A.; Vermaseren, J. A. M.; van den Herik, H. J.

    2013-11-01

    Optimizing the cost of evaluating a polynomial is a classic problem in computer science. For polynomials in one variable, Horner's method provides a scheme for producing a computationally efficient form. For multivariate polynomials it is possible to generalize Horner's method, but this leaves freedom in the order of the variables. Traditionally, greedy schemes like most-occurring variable first are used. This simple textbook algorithm has given remarkably efficient results. Finding better algorithms has proved difficult. In trying to improve upon the greedy scheme we have implemented Monte Carlo tree search, a recent search method from the field of artificial intelligence. This results in better Horner schemes and reduces the cost of evaluating polynomials, sometimes by factors up to two.

  7. Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.E. García-Ramos

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2. Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe.

  8. Risk indices of an ecological catastrophe because of a severe accident, its insurance, and their measurement units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pampuro, V.I.

    2001-01-01

    The critical analysis of the existing measurement units of the risk of an ecological catastrophe because of severe accidents is performed. The mistake of using the measurement unit 'reactor/year' for estimation of ecological catastrophe's consequences is shown. The complex for risk assessment by costs to ensure the ecological safety is introduced. The index of virtual accident insurance is suggested

  9. Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Kroon, Aart

    2016-01-01

    storms are capable of moving large amounts of sediments over relatively short time-periods and can create barrier shoals, whereas moderate storms mostly rework the shoal or barrier and create more local erosion and/or landward migration. Catastrophic storms substantially influence long-term and large...

  10. A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

    2017-03-01

    An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

  11. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods, and s...

  12. Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa; Tahini, Hassan Ali; Schwingenschlö gl, Udo

    2018-01-01

    the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe

  13. Insights into Participants' Behaviours in Educational Games, Simulations and Workshops: A Catastrophe Theory Application to Motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryer, Patricia

    1988-01-01

    Develops models for participants' behaviors in games, simulations, and workshops based on Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's two-factor theory of motivation. Examples are given of how these models can be used, both for describing and understanding the behaviors of individuals, and for eliciting insights into why participants behave as they do. (11…

  14. Perceptions of Challenge: The Role of Catastrophe Theory in Piano Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugos, Jennifer; Lee, William

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perceptions of private piano instructors on the role of challenge in teaching and learning the piano and to examine the potential application of catastrophe theory in understanding the role and outcomes of such challenges. A 23-item electronic questionnaire was administered to collect quantitative and…

  15. Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa

    2018-02-09

    The electronic properties of interphase boundaries are of basic importance for most materials, particularly when those properties deviate strongly from the bulk behavior. We introduce a mechanism that can result in metallicity at stoichiometric interphase boundaries between semiconductors based on the idea of polar catastrophe, which is usually considered only in the context of heterostructures. To this end, we perform ab initio calculations within density functional theory to investigate the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe the formation of a hole gas between the semiconductors SnO and SnO2. To explain these findings, we provide a generalized theory based on the idea that the charge density discontinuity between SnO and SnO2, a consequence of lattice mismatch, drives a polar catastrophe scenario. As a result, SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries can develop metallicity depending on the grain size. The concept of metallicity due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity is of general validity and applies to many interphase boundaries with lattice mismatch.

  16. Ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mel'nov, S.B.; Sarana, Yu.V.

    2009-01-01

    It is examined such ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of Chernobyl disaster, as violation of individual right to get information about the environment condition, getting the liquidator status, maintenance of all ethical norms while holding of biomedical research on disaster victims, and forming of social-ecological stress. (authors)

  17. Predicting Catastrophic Phase Inversion on the Basis of Droplet Coalescence Kinetics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vaessen, G.E.J.; Visschers, M.; Stein, H.N.

    1996-01-01

    A predictive model for catastrophic phase inversion, based on the kinetics of droplet breakup and coalescence, is presented here. Two inversion mechanisms can be distinguished, depending on the direction of the phase inversion process. With the surfactant predominantly present in the dispersed

  18. Assessing and modelling catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in agriculture: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophic risks result in high losses in agriculture. To cope with such losses farmers need to apply risk management strategies to balance their profits and risks. Therefore risk assessment and risk modelling are important to support farm-level decision-making. This paper (1) reviews the

  19. Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); F.T. Schut (Erik)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractIn 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and

  20. New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    Papers presented at the conference on New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History are included. Topics covered include: trajectories of ballistic impact ejecta on a rotating earth; axial focusing of impact energy in the earth's interior: proof-of-principle tests of a new hypothesis; in search of Nemesis; impact, extinctions, volcanism, glaciations, and tectonics: matches and mismatches.

  1. Catastrophic Misinterpretations as a Predictor of Symptom Change during Treatment for Panic Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teachman, Bethany A.; Marker, Craig D.; Clerkin, Elise M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related…

  2. Phase diagram of N = 2 superconformal field theories and bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kei Ito.

    1989-08-01

    Phase diagrams of N=2 superconformal field theories are mapped out. It is shown that they coincide with bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory. The results are applied to the determination of renormalization group flows triggered by a combination of two or more relevant operators. (author). 13 refs, 2 figs

  3. Co-delivery of paclitaxel and cetuximab by nanodiamond enhances mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu-Wei; Raj, Emmanuel Naveen; Liao, Wei-Siang; Lin, Johnson; Liu, Kuang-Kai; Chen, Ting-Hua; Cheng, Hsiao-Chun; Wang, Chi-Ching; Li, Lily Yi; Chen, Chinpiao; Chao, Jui-I

    2017-08-29

    The poor intracellular uptake and non-specific binding of anticancer drugs into cancer cells are the bottlenecks in cancer therapy. Nanocarrier platforms provide the opportunities to improve the drug efficacy. Here we show a carbon-based nanomaterial nanodiamond (ND) that carried paclitaxel (PTX), a microtubule inhibitor, and cetuximab (Cet), a specific monoclonal antibody against epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), inducing mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition in human colorectal cancer (CRC). ND-PTX blocked the mitotic progression, chromosomal separation, and induced apoptosis in the CRC cells; however, NDs did not induce these effects. Conjugation of ND-PTX with Cet (ND-PTX-Cet) was specifically binding to the EGFR-positive CRC cells and enhanced the mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis induction. Besides, ND-PTX-Cet markedly decreased tumor size in the xenograft EGFR-expressed human CRC tumors of nude mice. Moreover, ND-PTX-Cet induced the mitotic marker protein phospho-histone 3 (Ser10) and apoptotic protein active-caspase 3 for mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis. Taken together, this study demonstrated that the co-delivery of PTX and Cet by ND enhanced the effects of mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis in vitro and in vivo, which may be applied in the human CRC therapy.

  4. Penetration of n-hexadecane and water into wood under conditions simulating catastrophic floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganna Baglayeva; Wayne S. Seames; Charles R. Frihart; Jane O' Dell; Evguenii I. Kozliak

    2017-01-01

    To simulate fuel oil spills occurring during catastrophic floods, short-term absorption of two chemicals, n-hexadecane (representative of semivolatile organic compounds in fuel oil) and water, into southern yellow pine was gravimetrically monitored as a function of time at ambient conditions. Different scenarios were run on the basis of (1) the...

  5. A New Proxy Electronic Voting Scheme Achieved by Six-Particle Entangled States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Hai-Jing; Ding, Li-Yuan; Jiang, Xiu-Li; Li, Peng-Fei

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we use quantum proxy signature to construct a new secret electronic voting scheme. In our scheme, six particles entangled states function as quantum channels. The voter Alice, the Vote Management Center Bob, the scrutineer Charlie only perform two particles measurements on the Bell bases to realize the electronic voting process. So the scheme reduces the technical difficulty and increases operation efficiency. We use quantum key distribution and one-time pad to guarantee its unconditional security. The significant advantage of our scheme is that transmitted information capacity is twice as much as the capacity of other schemes.

  6. An extrapolation scheme for solid-state NMR chemical shift calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakajima, Takahito

    2017-06-01

    Conventional quantum chemical and solid-state physical approaches include several problems to accurately calculate solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) properties. We propose a reliable computational scheme for solid-state NMR chemical shifts using an extrapolation scheme that retains the advantages of these approaches but reduces their disadvantages. Our scheme can satisfactorily yield solid-state NMR magnetic shielding constants. The estimated values have only a small dependence on the low-level density functional theory calculation with the extrapolation scheme. Thus, our approach is efficient because the rough calculation can be performed in the extrapolation scheme.

  7. On 165Ho level scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ardisson, Claire; Ardisson, Gerard.

    1976-01-01

    A 165 Ho level scheme was constructed which led to the interpretation of sixty γ rays belonging to the decay of 165 Dy. A new 702.9keV level was identified to be the 5/2 - member of the 1/2 ) 7541{ Nilsson orbit. )] [fr

  8. Homogenization scheme for acoustic metamaterials

    KAUST Repository

    Yang, Min; Ma, Guancong; Wu, Ying; Yang, Zhiyu; Sheng, Ping

    2014-01-01

    the scattering amplitudes. We verify our scheme by applying it to three different examples: a layered lattice, a two-dimensional hexagonal lattice, and a decorated-membrane system. It is shown that the predicted characteristics and wave fields agree almost

  9. Homogenization scheme for acoustic metamaterials

    KAUST Repository

    Yang, Min

    2014-02-26

    We present a homogenization scheme for acoustic metamaterials that is based on reproducing the lowest orders of scattering amplitudes from a finite volume of metamaterials. This approach is noted to differ significantly from that of coherent potential approximation, which is based on adjusting the effective-medium parameters to minimize scatterings in the long-wavelength limit. With the aid of metamaterials’ eigenstates, the effective parameters, such as mass density and elastic modulus can be obtained by matching the surface responses of a metamaterial\\'s structural unit cell with a piece of homogenized material. From the Green\\'s theorem applied to the exterior domain problem, matching the surface responses is noted to be the same as reproducing the scattering amplitudes. We verify our scheme by applying it to three different examples: a layered lattice, a two-dimensional hexagonal lattice, and a decorated-membrane system. It is shown that the predicted characteristics and wave fields agree almost exactly with numerical simulations and experiments and the scheme\\'s validity is constrained by the number of dominant surface multipoles instead of the usual long-wavelength assumption. In particular, the validity extends to the full band in one dimension and to regimes near the boundaries of the Brillouin zone in two dimensions.

  10. New practicable Siberian Snake schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steffen, K.

    1983-07-01

    Siberian Snake schemes can be inserted in ring accelerators for making the spin tune almost independent of energy. Two such schemes are here suggested which lend particularly well to practical application over a wide energy range. Being composed of horizontal and vertical bending magnets, the proposed snakes are designed to have a small maximum beam excursion in one plane. By applying in this plane a bending correction that varies with energy, they can be operated at fixed geometry in the other plane where most of the bending occurs, thus avoiding complicated magnet motion or excessively large magnet apertures that would otherwise be needed for large energy variations. The first of the proposed schemes employs a pair of standard-type Siberian Snakes, i.e. of the usual 1st and 2nd kind which rotate the spin about the longitudinal and the transverse horizontal axis, respectively. The second scheme employs a pair of novel-type snakes which rotate the spin about either one of the horizontal axes that are at 45 0 to the beam direction. In obvious reference to these axes, they are called left-pointed and right-pointed snakes. (orig.)

  11. Nonlinear Secret Image Sharing Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Ho Shin

    2014-01-01

    efficiency and security of proposed scheme, we use the embedding capacity and PSNR. As a result of it, average value of PSNR and embedding capacity are 44.78 (dB and 1.74tlog2⁡m bit-per-pixel (bpp, respectively.

  12. The Chernobyl catastrophe consequences in the Republic of Belarus. National report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoplya, E.F.

    1996-03-01

    The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. The Chernobyl NPP catastrophe has led to the contamination of almost the fourth part of the territory of Belarus where there lived 2,2 million people. The damage caused to the republic by the catastrophe makes up 32 annual budgets of the republic of the pre-accident period in account for the 30-years period for its overcoming. Radioecological situation in Belarus is characterized by complexity and heterogeneous contamination of the territory by different radionuclides and their presence on all the components of the environment. It stipulates the plurality of ways of external and internal irradiation of the population and jeopardizes its health. There is registered the worsening of the population's health, of evacuated and inhabiting the contaminated areas as well, with increase of a number of somatic diseases, including oncological diseases, there are disorders in the metabolic processes and functions of the main systems of the organism. The demographic indices are decreasing. Particular concern causes the children's morbidity growth and genetic consequences of the accident. The contamination of agricultural lands has stipulated in the neighboring the Chernobyl NPP zone the impossibility of their use for food production. On the other lands it has been required to re-profile the farms and create new technologies of the agricultural production. There have been revealed the destructive tendencies in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population require considerable optimization. In spite of that for ten years passed after the catastrophe the discrepancy of its estimations has not been overcome completely. At the same time

  13. Comparison of nutrient profiling schemes for restricting the marketing of food and drink to children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinsden, H; Lobstein, T

    2013-08-01

    The food and beverage industry have made voluntary pledges to reduce children's exposure to the marketing of energy-dense foods and beverages, and in 2012 announced the replacement of company-specific nutrient profiling schemes with uniform sets of criteria from 2013 (in the USA) and 2014 (in the European Union [EU]). To compare the proposed USA and EU nutrient profiling schemes and three government-led schemes, paying particular attention to the differences in sugar criteria. Food and beverage products permitted to be advertised in the USA under pre-2013 criteria were examined using five nutrient profiling schemes: the forthcoming USA and EU schemes and three government-approved schemes: the US Interagency Working Group (IWG) proposals, the United Kingdom Office of Communications (OfCom) regulations and the Danish Forum co-regulatory Code. Under the new USA and EU nutrient profiling schemes, 88 (49%) and 73 (41%) of a total of 178 products would be permitted to be advertised, respectively. The US IWG permitted 25 (14%) products; the Ofcom regulations permitted 65 (37%) and the Danish Code permitted 13 (7%). Government-led schemes are significantly more restrictive than industry-led schemes, primarily due to their tougher sugar criteria. The Danish Forum (93%) and USA IWG scheme (86%) are the most restrictive of the five examined. Further harmonization of nutrient profiling schemes is needed to reduce children's exposure to the promotion of energy-dense foods. © 2013 The Authors. Pediatric Obesity © 2013 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

  14. Hemorrhagic Stroke Associated with Pulmonary Edema and Catastrophic Cardiac Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiun-Chang Lee

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Cerebral arteriovenous fistula (AVF is a vascular malformation that is rare in the pediatric population. Older children with cerebral AVF tend to present with neurologic problems related to intracranial venous hypertension or intracranial hemorrhage. Cardiac and pulmonary complications following acute neurologic injury such as subarachnoid hemorrhage are common in adults, but are rarely reported in children. However, complications have been reported in cases of enterovirus 71 rhombencephalitis in infants and children and can cause high morbidity and mortality. Here, we report a 14-year-old boy who presented with cardiac failure associated with pulmonary edema following cerebral hemorrhagic stroke due to AVF. After aggressive investigation and management, we intervened before significant hypoxia and hypotension developed, potentially reducing the risk of long-term adverse neurologic consequences in this patient.

  15. Extinction Risk in Successional Landscapes Subject to Catastrophic Disturbances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Boughton

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available We explore the thesis that stochasticity in successional-disturbance systems can be an agent of species extinction. The analysis uses a simple model of patch dynamics for seral stages in an idealized landscape; each seral stage is assumed to support a specialist biota. The landscape as a whole is characterized by a mean patch birth rate, mean patch size, and mean lifetime for each patch type. Stochasticity takes three forms: (1 patch stochasticity is randomness in the birth times and sizes of individual patches, (2 landscape stochasticity is variation in the annual means of birth rate and size, and (3 turnover mode is whether a patch is eliminated by disturbance or by successional change. Analytical and numerical analyses of the model suggest that landscape stochasticity is the most important agent. Landscape stochasticity increases the extinction risk to species by increasing the risk that the habitat will fluctuate to zero, by reducing the mean abundance of species, and by increasing the variance in species abundance. The highest risk was found to occur in species that inhabit patches with short lifetimes. The results of this general model suggest an important mechanism by which climate change threatens biodiversity: an increase in the frequency of extreme climate events will probably cause pulses of disturbance during some time periods; these in turn would cause wider fluctuations in annual disturbance rates and thus increase the overall level of landscape stochasticity. However, the model also suggests that humans can manipulate landscape stochasticity to reduce risk. In particular, if managed disturbances were more evenly distributed in time, attrition of the regional biota might be prevented. Other work on the connection between patch dynamics and extinction risk assumes the absence of landscape stochasticity and thus overlooks an important component of risk to biodiversity.

  16. Safety, danger and catastrophe inevitability in operation of safety-critical software algorithms: a possible new look at software safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Povyakalo, A.A.

    2000-01-01

    The paper provides basic definitions and describes the basic procedure of the Formal Qualitative Safety Analysis (FQSA) of critical software algorithms. The procedure is described by C-based pseudo-code. It uses the notion of weakest precondition and representation of a given critical algorithm by a Gurevich's Abstract State Mashine (GASM). For a given GASM and a given Catastrophe Condition the procedure results in a Catastrophe Inevitability Condition (it means that every sequence of algorithm steps lead to a catastrophe early or late), Danger Condition (it means that next step may lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable, but a catastrophe may be prevented yet), Safety Condition (it means that a next step can not lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable). The using of proposed procedure is illustrated by a simplest test example of algorithm. The FQSA provides a logical basis for PSA of critical algorithm. (author)

  17. A chaotic cryptography scheme for generating short ciphertext

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, Kwok-Wo; Ho, Sun-Wah; Yung, Ching-Ki

    2003-01-01

    Recently, we have proposed a chaotic cryptographic scheme based on iterating the logistic map and updating the look-up table dynamically. The encryption and decryption processes become faster as the number of iterations required is reduced. However, the length of the ciphertext is still at least twice that of the original message. This may result in huge ciphertext files and hence long transmission time when encrypting large multimedia files. In this Letter, we modify the chaotic cryptographic scheme proposed previously so as to reduce the length of the ciphertext to the level slightly longer than that of the original message. Moreover, a session key is introduced in the cryptographic scheme so that the ciphertext length for a given message is not fixed

  18. Support Schemes and Ownership Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ropenus, Stephanie; Schröder, Sascha Thorsten; Costa, Ana

    , Denmark, France and Portugal. Another crucial aspect for the diffusion of the mCHP technology is possible ownership structures. These may range from full consumer ownership to ownership by utilities and energy service companies, which is discussed in Section 6. Finally, a conclusion (Section 7) wraps up......In recent years, fuel cell based micro‐combined heat and power has received increasing attention due to its potential contribution to energy savings, efficiency gains, customer proximity and flexibility in operation and capacity size. The FC4Home project assesses technical and economic aspects...... of support scheme simultaneously affects risk and technological development, which is the focus of Section 4. Subsequent to this conceptual overview, Section 5 takes a glance at the national application of support schemes for mCHP in practice, notably in the three country cases of the FC4Home project...

  19. [PICS: pharmaceutical inspection cooperation scheme].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morénas, J

    2009-01-01

    The pharmaceutical inspection cooperation scheme (PICS) is a structure containing 34 participating authorities located worldwide (October 2008). It has been created in 1995 on the basis of the pharmaceutical inspection convention (PIC) settled by the European free trade association (EFTA) in1970. This scheme has different goals as to be an international recognised body in the field of good manufacturing practices (GMP), for training inspectors (by the way of an annual seminar and experts circles related notably to active pharmaceutical ingredients [API], quality risk management, computerized systems, useful for the writing of inspection's aide-memoires). PICS is also leading to high standards for GMP inspectorates (through regular crossed audits) and being a room for exchanges on technical matters between inspectors but also between inspectors and pharmaceutical industry.

  20. Project financing renewable energy schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandler, A.

    1993-01-01

    The viability of many Renewable Energy projects is critically dependent upon the ability of these projects to secure the necessary financing on acceptable terms. The principal objective of the study was to provide an overview to project developers of project financing techniques and the conditions under which project finance for Renewable Energy schemes could be raised, focussing on the potential sources of finance, the typical project financing structures that could be utilised for Renewable Energy schemes and the risk/return and security requirements of lenders, investors and other potential sources of financing. A second objective is to describe the appropriate strategy and tactics for developers to adopt in approaching the financing markets for such projects. (author)

  1. Network Regulation and Support Schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ropenus, Stephanie; Schröder, Sascha Thorsten; Jacobsen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    -in tariffs to market-based quota systems, and network regulation approaches, comprising rate-of-return and incentive regulation. National regulation and the vertical structure of the electricity sector shape the incentives of market agents, notably of distributed generators and network operators......At present, there exists no explicit European policy framework on distributed generation. Various Directives encompass distributed generation; inherently, their implementation is to the discretion of the Member States. The latter have adopted different kinds of support schemes, ranging from feed....... This article seeks to investigate the interactions between the policy dimensions of support schemes and network regulation and how they affect the deployment of distributed generation. Firstly, a conceptual analysis examines how the incentives of the different market agents are affected. In particular...

  2. Distance labeling schemes for trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alstrup, Stephen; Gørtz, Inge Li; Bistrup Halvorsen, Esben

    2016-01-01

    We consider distance labeling schemes for trees: given a tree with n nodes, label the nodes with binary strings such that, given the labels of any two nodes, one can determine, by looking only at the labels, the distance in the tree between the two nodes. A lower bound by Gavoille et al. [Gavoille...... variants such as, for example, small distances in trees [Alstrup et al., SODA, 2003]. We improve the known upper and lower bounds of exact distance labeling by showing that 1/4 log2(n) bits are needed and that 1/2 log2(n) bits are sufficient. We also give (1 + ε)-stretch labeling schemes using Theta...

  3. Small-scale classification schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hertzum, Morten

    2004-01-01

    Small-scale classification schemes are used extensively in the coordination of cooperative work. This study investigates the creation and use of a classification scheme for handling the system requirements during the redevelopment of a nation-wide information system. This requirements...... classification inherited a lot of its structure from the existing system and rendered requirements that transcended the framework laid out by the existing system almost invisible. As a result, the requirements classification became a defining element of the requirements-engineering process, though its main...... effects remained largely implicit. The requirements classification contributed to constraining the requirements-engineering process by supporting the software engineers in maintaining some level of control over the process. This way, the requirements classification provided the software engineers...

  4. Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945; Atomkrieg und andere Katastrophen. Zivil- und Katastrophenschutz in der Bundesrepublik und Grossbritannien nach 1945

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diebel, Martin [Zentrum fuer Zeithistorische Forschung, Potsdam (Germany)

    2017-07-01

    The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

  5. Catastrophe Optics Method to Determine the Micro-Nano Size Profiles at TPL of Liquid Films on a Solid Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, David F.; McQuillen, J. B.; Sankovic, J. M.; Zhang, Nengli

    2009-01-01

    As discovered by recent studies, what directly affects the wetting and spreading is curvature in micro-region rather than the macroscopic contact angle. Measuring the profile of the micro-region becomes an important research topic. Recently, catastrophe optics has been applied to this kind of measurements. Optical catastrophe occurring in far field of waves of liquid-refracted laser beam implies a wealth of information about the liquid spreading not only for liquid drops but also for films. When a parallel laser beam passes through a liquid film on a slide glass at three-phase-line (TPL), very interesting optical image patterns occur on a screen far from the film. An analysis based on catastrophe optics discloses and interprets the formation of these optical image patterns. The analysis reveals that the caustic line manifested as the bright-thick line on the screen implies the lowest hierarchy of optical catastrophes, called fold caustic. This optical catastrophe is produced by the inflexion line on liquid surface at the liquid foot, which is formed not only in the spreading of drops but also in spreading of films. The generalized catastrophe optics method enables to identify the edge profiles and determine the edge foot height of liquid films. Keywords: Crossover region, Inflexion line, liquid edge foot, Catastrophe optics, Caustic and diffraction

  6. New schemes for particle accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishida, Y.

    1985-01-01

    In the present paper, the authors propose new schemes for realizing the v/sub p/xB accelerator, by using no plasma system for producing the strong longitudinal waves. The first method is to use a grating for obtaining extended interaction of an electron beam moving along the grating surface with light beam incident also along the surface. Here, the light beam propagates obliquely to the grating grooves for producing strong electric field, and the electron beam propagates in parallel to the light beam. The static magnetic field is applied perpendicularly to the grating surface. In the present system, the beam interacts synchronously with the p-polarized wave which has the electric field be parallel to the grating surface. Another conventional scheme is to use a delay circuit. Here, the light beam propagates obliquely between a pair of array of conductor fins or slots. The phase velocity of the spatial harmonics in the y-direction (right angle to the array of slots) is slower than the speed of light. With the aid of powerful laser light or microwave source, it should be possible to miniaturise linacs by using the v/sub p/xB effect and schemes proposed here

  7. Catastrophic wind damage to North American forests and the potential impact of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, C.J. [Department of Botany, 2502 Plant Sciences Building, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602-7271 (United States)

    2000-11-15

    Catastrophic winds from tornadoes and downbursts are a major cause of natural disturbance in forests of eastern North America, accounting for thousands of hectares of disturbed area annually. Wind disturbance shows substantial regional variation, decreasing from the mid-west to the east and from the south-east to New England. In terms of the relative importance among these types of storms, more forest damage results from tornadoes in the south-east and mid-west, while downbursts are the most important type of wind disturbance in the Great Lakes area. Downbursts vary widely in size, but large ones can damage thousands of hectares, while tornadoes are much smaller, seldom affecting more than several hundred hectares. Tornadoes cause the most severe wind disturbances. Site characteristics such as physiography, soil moisture, and soil depth; stand characteristics like density and canopy roughness; and tree characteristics such as size, species, rooting depth, and wood strength, are the factors most recognized as influencing damage patterns. The consequences of wind damage to forests, such as change in environmental conditions, density, size structure, species composition, and successional status, occur on both immediate (hours-to-days) and long-term (months-to-decades) time scales. Most wind disturbances result in the post-disturbance vegetation being comprised of surviving canopy trees, and varying amounts of sprouts, released understory stems, and new seedlings. Stand size structure is usually reduced, and successional status of a forest is often advanced. Diversity can be either increased or decreased, depending on the measure of abundance used to calculate diversity. Because tornadoes and downbursts are in part products of thermodynamic climatic circumstances, they may be affected by anticipated changes in climatic conditions as the 21st century progresses. However, the current understanding of tornado and downburst formation from supercell storms is very

  8. A Memory Efficient Network Encryption Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Fotouh, Mohamed Abo; Diepold, Klaus

    In this paper, we studied the two widely used encryption schemes in network applications. Shortcomings have been found in both schemes, as these schemes consume either more memory to gain high throughput or low memory with low throughput. The need has aroused for a scheme that has low memory requirements and in the same time possesses high speed, as the number of the internet users increases each day. We used the SSM model [1], to construct an encryption scheme based on the AES. The proposed scheme possesses high throughput together with low memory requirements.

  9. An Arbitrated Quantum Signature Scheme without Entanglement*

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Hui-Ran; Luo Ming-Xing; Peng Dai-Yuan; Wang Xiao-Jun

    2017-01-01

    Several quantum signature schemes are recently proposed to realize secure signatures of quantum or classical messages. Arbitrated quantum signature as one nontrivial scheme has attracted great interests because of its usefulness and efficiency. Unfortunately, previous schemes cannot against Trojan horse attack and DoS attack and lack of the unforgeability and the non-repudiation. In this paper, we propose an improved arbitrated quantum signature to address these secure issues with the honesty arbitrator. Our scheme takes use of qubit states not entanglements. More importantly, the qubit scheme can achieve the unforgeability and the non-repudiation. Our scheme is also secure for other known quantum attacks . (paper)

  10. Remembering pain after surgery: a longitudinal examination of the role of pain catastrophizing in children's and parents' recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Melanie; Rabbitts, Jennifer A; Tai, Gabrielle G; Palermo, Tonya M

    2015-05-01

    Children's memories for pain play a powerful role in their pain experiences. Parents' memories may also influence children's pain experiences, by influencing parent-child interactions about pain and children's cognitions and behaviors. Pain catastrophizing of children and parents has been implicated as a factor underlying memory biases; however, this has not been empirically examined. The current longitudinal study is the first to examine the role of pain catastrophizing of children and parents in the development of their pain memories after surgery. Participants were 49 youth (32 girls) aged 10 to 18 years undergoing major surgery and their parents. One week before surgery, children and parents completed measures of pain catastrophizing. Two weeks after surgery (the acute recovery period), children and parents completed measures of child pain intensity and affect. Two to 4 months after surgery, children's and parents' memories of child pain intensity and affect were elicited. Hierarchical linear regression models revealed that over and above covariates, parent catastrophizing about their child's pain (magnification, rumination) accounted for a significant portion of variance in children's affective and parents' sensory pain memories. Although parent catastrophizing had a direct effect on pain memories, mediation analyses revealed that child catastrophizing (helplessness) indirectly influenced children's and parents' pain memories through the child's postoperative pain experience. Findings highlight that aspects of catastrophic thinking about child pain before surgery are linked to distressing pain memories several months later. Although both child and parent catastrophizing influence pain memory development, parent catastrophizing is most influential to both children's and parents' evolving cognitions about child pain.

  11. MRT Lattice Boltzmann schemes for confined suspension flows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sman, van der R.G.M.

    2010-01-01

    We introduce a novel multiple-relaxation time (modified MRT) Lattice Boltzmann scheme for simulation of confined suspension flow. Via careful tuning of the free eigenvalues of the collision operator we can substantially reduce the error in the so-called hydrodynamic radius. Its performance has been

  12. Privacy protection schemes for fingerprint recognition systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marasco, Emanuela; Cukic, Bojan

    2015-05-01

    The deployment of fingerprint recognition systems has always raised concerns related to personal privacy. A fingerprint is permanently associated with an individual and, generally, it cannot be reset if compromised in one application. Given that fingerprints are not a secret, potential misuses besides personal recognition represent privacy threats and may lead to public distrust. Privacy mechanisms control access to personal information and limit the likelihood of intrusions. In this paper, image- and feature-level schemes for privacy protection in fingerprint recognition systems are reviewed. Storing only key features of a biometric signature can reduce the likelihood of biometric data being used for unintended purposes. In biometric cryptosystems and biometric-based key release, the biometric component verifies the identity of the user, while the cryptographic key protects the communication channel. Transformation-based approaches only a transformed version of the original biometric signature is stored. Different applications can use different transforms. Matching is performed in the transformed domain which enable the preservation of low error rates. Since such templates do not reveal information about individuals, they are referred to as cancelable templates. A compromised template can be re-issued using a different transform. At image-level, de-identification schemes can remove identifiers disclosed for objectives unrelated to the original purpose, while permitting other authorized uses of personal information. Fingerprint images can be de-identified by, for example, mixing fingerprints or removing gender signature. In both cases, degradation of matching performance is minimized.

  13. Factors affecting sustainability of rural water schemes in Swaziland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, Graciana; Nkambule, Sizwe E.

    The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target to reduce the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water by the year 2015 has been met as of 2010, but huge disparities exist. Some regions, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa are lagging behind it is also in this region where up to 30% of the rural schemes are not functional at any given time. There is need for more studies on factors affecting sustainability and necessary measures which when implemented will improve the sustainability of rural water schemes. The main objective of this study was to assess the main factors affecting the sustainability of rural water schemes in Swaziland using a Multi-Criteria Analysis Approach. The main factors considered were: financial, social, technical, environmental and institutional. The study was done in Lubombo region. Fifteen functional water schemes in 11 communities were studied. Data was collected using questionnaires, checklist and focused group discussion guide. A total of 174 heads of households were interviewed. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was used to analyse the data and to calculate sustainability scores for water schemes. SPSS was also used to classify sustainability scores according to sustainability categories: sustainable, partially sustainable and non-sustainable. The averages of the ratings for the different sub-factors studied and the results on the sustainability scores for the sustainable, partially sustainable and non-sustainable schemes were then computed and compared to establish the main factors influencing sustainability of the water schemes. The results indicated technical and social factors as most critical while financial and institutional, although important, played a lesser role. Factors which contributed to the sustainability of water schemes were: functionality; design flow; water fetching time; ability to meet additional demand; use by population; equity; participation in decision making on operation and

  14. Overview of catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes in power electronic circuits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

    2013-01-01

    Emerging applications (e.g. electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, more electric aircrafts, etc.) have brought more stringent reliability constrains into power electronic products because of safety requirements and maintenance cost issues. To improve the reliability of power electronics......, better understanding of failure modes and failure mechanisms of reliability–critical components in power electronic circuits are needed. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT failures, while the study on the failures of freewheeling diodes is less impressive. It is of importance...... to investigate the catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes as they could induce the malfunction of other components and eventually the whole power electronic circuits. This paper presents an overview of those catastrophic failures and gives examples of the corresponding consequences to the circuits....

  15. Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

    OpenAIRE

    Hewitt, Kenneth; Mehta, Manjari

    2012-01-01

    Cet article aborde la question des risques et des catastrophes en montagne. Il vise non pas à dissocier mais plutôt à replacer ces concepts au cœur des questions de sécurité publique et de développement des États contemporains. Cette approche des catastrophes se distingue des précédentes, pourtant considérablement renforcées par les stéréotypes habituels, propres à l’environnement montagnard. De fait, celles-ci étaient jusqu’alors centrées sur l’aléa naturel, sur son caractère extrême et impr...

  16. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-08

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal's second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  17. Hydrogen atom in a magnetic field: Ghost orbits, catastrophes, and uniform semiclassical approximations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Main, J.; Wunner, G.

    1997-01-01

    Applying closed-orbit theory to the recurrence spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field, one can interpret most, but not all, structures semiclassically in terms of closed classical orbits. In particular, conventional closed-orbit theory fails near bifurcations of orbits where semiclassical amplitudes exhibit unphysical divergences. Here we analyze the role of ghost orbits living in complex phase space. The ghosts can explain resonance structures in the spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field at positions where no real orbits exist. For three different types of catastrophes, viz. fold, cusp, and butterfly catastrophes, we construct uniform semiclassical approximations and demonstrate that these solutions are completely determined by classical parameters of the real orbits and complex ghosts. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  18. Balancing burn-in and mission times in environments with catastrophic and repairable failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bebbington, Mark; Lai, C.-D.; Zitikis, Ricardas

    2009-01-01

    In a system subject to both repairable and catastrophic (i.e., nonrepairable) failures, 'mission success' can be defined as operating for a specified time without a catastrophic failure. We examine the effect of a burn-in process of duration τ on the mission time x, and also on the probability of mission success, by introducing several functions and surfaces on the (τ,x)-plane whose extrema represent suitable choices for the best burn-in time, and the best burn-in time for a desired mission time. The corresponding curvature functions and surfaces provide information about probabilities and expectations related to these burn-in and mission times. Theoretical considerations are illustrated with both parametric and, separating the failures by failure mode, nonparametric analyses of a data set, and graphical visualization of results.

  19. Polar catastrophe at the MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa

    2016-11-14

    First principles calculations, based on density functional theory, are used to investigate the structural and electronic properties of the epitaxial MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface of wide band gap insulators. Depending on the interface termination, nonmagnetic metallic and half-metallic interface states are observed. The formation of these states is explained by a polar catastrophe model for nonpolar-polar interfaces. Strong lattice distortions and buckling develop in SnO2, which influence the interface properties as the charge discontinuity is partially screened. Already a single unit cell of SnO2 is sufficient to drive the polar catastrophe scenario. © 2016 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

  20. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal’s second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away.