Improving Chinese nursing students' communication skills by utilizing video-stimulated recall and role-play case scenarios to introduce them to the SBAR technique.

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Wang, Weiwen; Liang, Zhan; Blazeck, Alice; Greene, Brian

2015-07-01

Effective communication among healthcare workers is critically important for patient safety and quality care. The purpose of this pilot study was to evaluate outcomes of a workshop designed to teach Chinese nursing students to use the Situation-Background-Assessment-Recommendation (SBAR) communication tool and examine their attitudes toward utilizing SBAR as a communication tool. A convenience sample of 18 master's degree nursing students at a Chinese university was introduced to SBAR through a workshop. The workshop combined the SBAR tool, video-stimulated recall and role-play case scenarios to illustrate potential positive and negative communication-related patient outcomes. Students completed a 12-item questionnaire before and after participating in the workshop. Four of the items examined the four elements of the SBAR tool (situation, background, assessment, recommendation, score range 0-20), and eight of the items evaluated students' self-perceived attitudes towards utilizing the SBAR tool in their clinical practice (score range 0-40). Pre- and post-workshop scores on the four elements of the SBAR tool demonstrate significant improvement in knowledge of SBAR (14.0±2.9 vs. 16.6±2.2, respectively; p=0.009). Pre- and post-workshop scores on the items testing students' self-perceived abilities also demonstrate significant improvement (26.9±3.5 vs. 32.6±4.5, respectively; p<0.01) in using SBAR. Total scores increased significantly from 40.9±5.0 to 49.2±5.9 (p<0.01). Moreover, 93.8% of the students agreed and strongly agreed that they would use SBAR during clinical practice. Participating in the SBAR workshop in combination with video-stimulated recall and role-play case scenarios significantly improved the Chinese nursing students' knowledge of SBAR and their self-perceived attitudes towards using SBAR tool. Future studies using a larger sample size and longer post-workshop follow-up are needed to confirm the long-term benefits of the workshop. Copyright �

Implementation and outcome evaluation of high-fidelity simulation scenarios to integrate cognitive and psychomotor skills for Korean nursing students.

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Ahn, Heejung; Kim, Hyun-Young

2015-05-01

This study is involved in designing high-fidelity simulations reflecting the Korean nursing education environment. In addition, it evaluated the simulations by nursing students' learning outcomes and perceptions of the simulation design features. A quantitative design was used in two separate phases. For the first phase, five nursing experts participated in verifying the appropriateness of two simulation scenarios that reflected the intended learning objectives. For the second phase, 69 nursing students in the third year of a bachelor's degree at a nursing school participated in evaluating the simulations and were randomized according to their previous course grades. The first phase verified the two simulation scenarios using a questionnaire. The second phase evaluated students' perceptions of the simulation design, self-confidence, and critical thinking skills using a quasi-experimental post-test design. ANCOVA was used to compare the experimental and control groups, and correlation coefficient analysis was used to determine the correlation among them. We created 2 simulation scenarios to integrate cognitive and psychomotor skills according to the learning objectives and clinical environment in Korea. The experimental group had significantly higher scores on self-confidence in the first scenario. The positive correlations between perceptions of the simulation design features, self-confidence, and critical thinking skill scores were statistically significant. Students with a more positive perception of the design features of the simulations had better learning outcomes. Based on this result, simulations need to be designed and implemented with more differentiation in order to be perceived more appropriately by students. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improvement of nursing students' learning outcomes through scenario-based skills training.

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Uysal, Nurcan

2016-08-08

this study analyzed the influence of scenario-based skills training on students' learning skills. the author evaluated the nursing skills laboratory exam papers of 605 sophomores in nursing programs for seven years. The study determined the common mistakes of students and the laboratory work was designed in a scenario-based format. The effectiveness of this method was evaluated by assessing the number of errors the students committed and their achievement scores in laboratory examinations. This study presents the students' common mistakes in intramuscular and subcutaneous injection and their development of intravenous access skills, included in the nursing skills laboratory examination. an analysis of the students' most common mistakes revealed that the most common was not following the principles of asepsis for all three skills (intramuscular, subcutaneous injection, intravenous access) in the first year of the scenario-based training. The students' exam achievement scores increased gradually, except in the fall semester of the academic year 2009-2010. The study found that the scenario-based skills training reduced students' common mistakes in examinations and enhanced their performance on exams. this method received a positive response from both students and instructors. The scenario-based training is available for use in addition to other skills training methods. en este estudio fue analizada la influencia de la capacitación basada en escenarios en las capacidades de aprendizaje de los alumnos. el autor evaluó los textos de exámenes de laboratorio de habilidades de enfermería producidos por 605 alumnos de segundo año en cursos de enfermería durante siete años. El estudio determinó los errores comunes de los alumnos y el trabajo en laboratorio adoptó el formato basado en escenarios. La eficacia de ese método fue evaluada mediante la cantidad de errores que los alumnos cometieron y sus notas de desempeño en exámenes de laboratorio. Este estudio

An open randomized controlled study comparing an online text-based scenario and a serious game by Belgian and Swiss pharmacy students.

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Berger, Jérôme; Bawab, Noura; De Mooij, Jeremy; Sutter Widmer, Denise; Szilas, Nicolas; De Vriese, Carine; Bugnon, Olivier

2018-03-01

To compare online learning tools, looped, branch serious game (SG) and linear text-based scenario (TBS), among a sample of Belgian and Swiss pharmacy students. Open randomized controlled study. The lesson was based on the case of a benign cough in a healthy child. A randomized sample of 117 students: only the Swiss students had attended a previous lecture on coughs. Participation rate, pre- and post-experience Likert scales and students' clinical knowledge were measured. Our primary hypothesis was demonstrated: students favored the SG even if navigation was rated as more complex, and students who performed the SG better understood the aim of pharmacist triage in case of cough. The influence of the SG appeared to be linked to the presence of a previous lecture in the curriculum. SG and TBS are effective to teach pharmacist triage. Higher SG complexity should be used to teach the aim of pharmacist triage in the case of a specific disease and could be an alternative to simulated patients. A simpler TBS does not require a previous lecture and a debriefing to be fully effective. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optics Demonstration with Student Eyeglasses Using the Inquiry Method

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James, Mark C.

2011-01-01

A favorite qualitative optics demonstration I perform in introductory physics classes makes use of students' eyeglasses to introduce converging and diverging lenses. Taking on the persona of a magician, I walk to the back of the classroom and approach a student wearing glasses. The top part of Fig. 1 shows a glasses-wearing student who is…

Self Reflections of Undergraduate Students on Using Web-Supported Counterintuitive Science Demonstrations

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Kumar, David Devraj; Dunn, Jessica

2018-03-01

Analysis of self-reflections of undergraduate education students in a project involving web-supported counterintuitive science demonstrations is reported in this paper. Participating students (N = 19) taught science with counterintuitive demonstrations in local elementary school classrooms and used web-based resources accessed via wireless USB adapters. Student reflections to seven questions were analyzed qualitatively using four components of reflection (meeting objectives/perception of learning, dynamics of pedagogy, special needs accommodations, improving teaching) deriving 27 initial data categories and 12 emergent themes. Overall the undergraduates reported meeting objectives, engaging students in pedagogically relevant learning tasks including, providing accommodations to students with special needs, and gaining practice and insight to improve their own teaching. Additional research is needed to arrive at generalizable findings concerning teaching with web-supported counterintuitive science demonstrations in elementary classrooms.

Innovative Educational Scenarios in Game Based Teaching and Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion Smeureanu

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The didactical game can be considered part of an educational scenario in teaching and learning. This article aims to show how fundamental concepts from the economicmathematical modeling area can be visualized, how to organize knowledge in coherent scenarios, presented in an educational game manner, to gain the attention and influence students' spirit of competition. At the same time, benefitting from the 3D visualizations, the graphical interfaces for navigating in multidimensional spaces or projections are defined and thus imagination used for mental models construction is stimulated and human intuition is capitalized in the process of knowledge discovery, assisted by computer with analytic algorithms type. Exploration becomes a game feature and can be pursued both numerically and visually. 3D environments give realism to visualizations that are found in games, facilitating realimaginary relationship throughout the game and enhancing learning motivation. The innovative character of teaching is given by the method in which the teacher creates his own educational scenario by considering specific learning objectives, age particularities of students, time and space-related resources, the technical requirements of the game and the evaluation method. The paper makes several references to such projects, developed by the authors and implemented in working with students. Game based on demonstration (using simulation, modelling or visualization coordinates users to obtain relevant information; the multiple representations of knowledge are so used and compared through a multitude of examples.

Embedding Microethical Dilemmas in High-Fidelity Simulation Scenarios: Preparing Nursing Students for Ethical Practice.

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Krautscheid, Lorretta C

2017-01-01

Despite the inclusion of ethics education in the formal curriculum, students felt ill-prepared to manage ethical issues and protect patients' health and well-being. Nursing students reported knowing what should be done to promote optimal patient care; however, they also reported an inability to act on their convictions due to fear of reprisal, powerlessness, and low confidence. Bloom's Taxonomy guided the development and implementation of experiential-applied ethics education via microethical dilemmas embedded in existing high-fidelity simulation (HFS) scenarios. Students were unaware that ethical dilemmas would be presented, replicating complex and spontaneous practice environments. Students reported that the educational strategy was powerful, increasing ethical decision-making confidence, empowering effective advocacy, and building courage to overcome fears and defend ethical practice. Simulation extends ethics education beyond the cognitive domain, ensuring the purposeful integration of affective and psychomotor learning, which promotes congruence between knowing what to do and acting on one's convictions. [J Nurs Educ. 2017;56(1):55-58.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

Students' Hands-on Experimental Work vs Lecture Demonstration in Teaching Elementary School Chemistry.

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Logar, Ana; Ferk-Savec, Vesna

2011-12-01

Science educators have suggested many benefits that accrue from engaging students in experimental activities, therefore, experimental work has a long and distinctive role in chemistry curriculum since. The presented empirical study focuses on the valuation of effectiveness of different forms of experimental work - students' hands-on experimental work vs teacher's lecture demonstration - from the viewpoint of the quality of content knowledge acquisition and knowledge retention in teaching primary school chemistry. 106 primary school students (age 14-15 years) participated in the study. The data was collected via pre- and post- test protocol and two delayed post tests. Additionally 16 students selected from the sample were interviewed. The results indicate that students' content knowledge gained through teacher's demonstration of experiment is better and better knowledge retention takes place in comparison to students' knowledge gained through students' hands-on experimental work. However, most of the inteviewed students stated that they prefered conducting of experiments by themselves in comparison to observation of teacher's demonstration.

Development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario.

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Tait, Michael; Tait, Desiree; Thornton, Frances; Edwards, Mark

2008-11-01

This paper describes the development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario for student nurses. At present, there are insufficient opportunities in the United Kingdom (UK) for student nurses to experience clinical placements where their skills in care of the critically-ill can be developed. There is therefore a need for new learning materials that help learners recognise the signs of clinical deterioration and rehearse the management of critically-ill patients. One way of meeting this need is by using electronic care scenarios. Several electronic care scenarios have been developed at Swansea University as part of the eWARD project. This article describes the design and evaluation of a critical care scenario that follows the care of a road casualty (John Macadam) after admission to an intensive care unit. The scenario was designed by an advisory team comprising a clinical lecturer and e-learning specialists. After using the scenario, 144 nursing students completed a Web-based questionnaire that collected demographic and attitudinal data for analysis using SPSS. Nursing students had a strongly positive attitude to the scenario with median scores in excess of 20 compared to maxima of 25 for scales measuring ease-of-use, interactivity, realism and confidence. None of the demographic data collected had a significant effect on these attitudes. The positive attitude of student nurses to this scenario strongly supports its use to help learners to (1) acquire knowledge and awareness when real life placements in these settings are not available and (2) extend their knowledge after coming across similar situations in practice.

Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

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Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

2012-01-01

In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

Exploring virtual worlds for scenario-based repeated team training of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in medical students.

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Creutzfeldt, Johan; Hedman, Leif; Medin, Christopher; Heinrichs, Wm LeRoy; Felländer-Tsai, Li

2010-09-03

Contemporary learning technologies, such as massively multiplayer virtual worlds (MMVW), create new means for teaching and training. However, knowledge about the effectiveness of such training is incomplete, and there are no data regarding how students experience it. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is a field within medicine in high demand for new and effective training modalities. In addition to finding a feasible way to implement CPR training, our aim was to investigate how a serious game setting in a virtual world using avatars would influence medical students' subjective experiences as well as their retention of knowledge. An MMVW was refined and used in a study to train 12 medical students in CPR in 3-person teams in a repeated fashion 6 months apart. An exit questionnaire solicited reflections over their experiences. As the subjects trained in 4 CPR scenarios, measurements of self-efficacy, concentration, and mental strain were made in addition to measuring knowledge. Engagement modes and coping strategies were also studied. Parametric and nonparametric statistical analyses were carried out according to distribution of the data. The majority of the subjects reported that they had enjoyed the training, had found it to be suitable, and had learned something new, although several asked for more difficult and complex scenarios as well as a richer virtual environment. The mean values for knowledge dropped during the 6 months from 8.0/10 to 6.25/10 (P = .002). Self-efficacy increased from before to after each of the two training sessions, from 5.9/7 to 6.5/7 (P = .01) after the first and from 6.0/7 to 6.7/7 (P = .03) after the second. The mean perceived concentration value increased from 54.2/100 to 66.6/100 (P = .006), and in general the mental strain was found to be low to moderate (mean = 2.6/10). Using scenario-based virtual world team training with avatars to train medical students in multi-person CPR was feasible and showed promising results. Although we

Patient Demonstration Videos in Predoctoral Endodontic Education: Aspects Perceived as Beneficial by Students.

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Edrees, Hadeel Y; Ohlin, Johan; Ahlquist, Michael; Tessma, Mesfin K; Zary, Nabil

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to assess the perceived benefits of video-mediated demonstrations in learning endodontics. Participants in the study were 75 third-year students enrolled in the undergraduate dentistry program at Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden. After the endodontic preclinical course, the students were introduced to the treatment protocol in the clinic by watching two live patient-demonstrated videos. The first video demonstrated how to communicate with the patient and perform diagnosis and root canal instrumentation. The second video illustrated how to perform bacterial sampling and root canal filling. After the students watched each video, a questionnaire was used to evaluate their opinions about various steps of the endodontic treatment protocol and the benefit of such educational material for their practice. Of the total 75 students, 72 completed the first questionnaire (96% response rate), and 65 completed the second questionnaire (87% response rate). The results showed that the students perceived high value in the video demonstrations related to treatment procedure. A statistically significant difference was observed between the perceived benefits of the first and second sessions in communication and treatment procedure (p<0.001). Further studies are needed to assess improvement in the design and delivery format for video demonstrations to enhance their effectiveness as a teaching modality for endodontics.

The effectiveness of a simulated scenario to teach nursing students how to perform a bed bath: A randomized clinical trial.

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Miranda, Renata Pinto Ribeiro; de Cássia Lopes Chaves, Érika; Silva Lima, Rogério; Braga, Cristiane Giffoni; Simões, Ivandira Anselmo Ribeiro; Fava, Silvana Maria Coelho Leite; Iunes, Denise Hollanda

2017-10-01

Simulation allows students to develop several skills during a bed bath that are difficult to teach only in traditional classroom lectures, such as problem-solving, student interactions with the simulator (patient), reasoning in clinical evaluations, evaluation of responses to interventions, teamwork, communication, security and privacy. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a simulated bed bath scenario on improving cognitive knowledge, practical performance and satisfaction among nursing students. Randomized controlled clinical trial. Nursing students that were in the fifth period from two educational institutions in Brazil. Nursing students (n=58). The data were collected using the assessments of cognitive knowledge, practical performance and satisfaction were made through a written test about bed baths, an Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) and a satisfaction questionnaire. We identified that the acquisition and assimilation of cognitive knowledge was significantly higher in the simulation group (p=0.001). The performance was similar in both groups regardless of the teaching strategy (p=0.435). At follow-up, the simulation group had significantly more satisfaction with the teaching method than the control group (p=0.007). The teaching strategy based on a simulated scenario of a bed bath proved to be effective for the acquisition of cognitive knowledge regarding bed baths in clinical practice and improved student satisfaction with the teaching process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Competency in managing cardiac arrest: A scenario-based evaluation of dental students.

Science.gov (United States)

Breuer, Georg; Knipfer, Christian; Huber, Tobias; Huettl, Stephan; Shams, Nima; Knipfer, Kristin; Neukam, Friedrich Wilhelm; Schuettler, Juergen; Stelzle, Florian

2016-01-01

Advanced Cardiovascular Life Support (ACLS) in life-threatening situations is perceived as a basic skill for dental professionals. However, medical emergency training in dental schools is often not standardized. The dental students' knowledge transfer to an ACLS setting thus remains questionable. The aim of the study was to evaluate dental pre-doctorate students' practical competence in ACLS in a standardized manner to enable the curriculum to be adapted to meet their particular needs. Thirty dental students (age 25.47 ± 1.81; 16 male/14 female) in their last year of dental studies were randomly assigned to 15 teams. Students' ability to successfully manage ACLS was assessed by a scenario-based approach (training module: Laerdal® ALS Skillmaster). Competence was assessed by means of (a) an observation chart, (b) video analysis and (c) training module analysis (Laerdal HeartSim®4000; Version 1.4). The evaluation was conducted by a trained anesthesiologist with regard to the 2010 guidelines of the European Resuscitation Council (ERC). Only five teams (33.3%) checked for all three vital functions (response, breathing and circulation). All teams initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Only 54.12% of the compressions performed during CPR were sufficient. Four teams stopped the CPR after initiation. In total, 93% of the teams used the equipment for bag-valve-mask ventilation and 53.3% used the AED (Automated external defibrillator). ACLS training on a regular basis is necessary and, consistent with a close link between dentistry and medicine, should be a standardized part of the medical emergency curriculum for dental students with a specific focus on the deficiencies revealed in this study.

Improving Web-Based Student Learning Through Online Video Demonstrations

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Scott; Redman, S.

2010-01-01

Students in online courses continue to lag their peers in comparable face-to-face (F2F) courses (Ury 2004, Slater & Jones 2004). A meta-study of web-based vs. classroom instruction by Sitzmann et al (2006) discovered that the degree of learner control positively influences the effectiveness of instruction: students do better when they are in control of their own learning. In particular, web-based courses are more effective when they incorporate a larger variety of instructional methods. To address this need, we developed a series of online videos to demonstrate various astronomical concepts and provided them to students enrolled in an online introductory astronomy course at Penn State University. We found that the online students performed worse than the F2F students on questions unrelated to the videos (t = -2.84), but that the online students who watched the videos performed better than the F2F students on related examination questions (t = 2.11). We also found that the online students who watched the videos performed significantly better than those who did not (t = 3.43). While the videos in general proved helpful, some videos were more helpful than others. We will discuss our thoughts on why this might be, and future plans to improve upon this study. These videos are freely available on iTunesU, YouTube, and Google Video.

Competence of medical students in communicating drug therapy: Value of role-play demonstrations.

Science.gov (United States)

Tayem, Yasin I; Altabtabaei, Abdulaziz S; Mohamed, Mohamed W; Arrfedi, Mansour M; Aljawder, Hasan S; Aldebous, Fahad A; James, Henry; Al Khaja, Khalid A J; Sequeira, Reginald P

2016-01-01

This study used role-play demonstrations to train medical students to communicate drug therapy and evaluated the perceptions on this instructional approach. The second-year medical students who attended a prescription writing session (n = 133), participated in this study. Prescription communication was introduced by using role-play demonstrations. Participant's perceptions were explored by a self-administered questionnaire and focus group discussion. The academic achievement of attendees and nonattendees was compared with an objective structured performance evaluation (OSPE) station that tested students' competence in this skill. Most attendees responded to the questionnaire (81.2%). Almost all respondents expressed their desire to have similar demonstrations in other units. A large proportion of participants reported that role-play demonstrations helped them develop their communication skills, in general, confidence to communicate drug-related information in a prescription, and the ability to explain the aim of drug therapy to patients. Most trainees thought also that they developed skills to communicate instructions on drug use including drug dose, frequency of administration, duration of therapy, adverse drug reactions, and warnings. During the focus group interviews, students thought that role-play was useful but would be more beneficial if conducted frequently in small group as part of the curriculum implementation. The majority of students also reported improved competence in writing a complete prescription. Analysis of attendees and nonattendees grades in the OSPE showed that the former scored higher than the latter group (P = 0.016). Role-play demonstrations were well accepted by medical students and led to the development of their competence in communicating drug therapy to patients.

The Impact of Gamification - Recommending Education Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kai Erenli

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Many students play (computer games in their leisure time, thus acquiring skills which can easily be utilized when it comes to teaching more sophisticated knowledge. Nevertheless many educators today are wasting this opportunity. Some have evaluated gaming scenarios and methods for teaching students and have created the term “gamification”. This paper describes the history of this new term and explains the possible impact on teaching. It will take well-researched facts into consideration to discuss the potential of games. Moreover, scenarios will be illustrated and evaluated for educators to adopt and use on their own.

Teaching pediatric communication skills to medical students.

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Frost, Katherine A; Metcalf, Elizabeth P; Brooks, Rachel; Kinnersley, Paul; Greenwood, Stephen R; Powell, Colin Ve

2015-01-01

Delivering effective clinical pediatric communication skills training to undergraduate medical students is a distinct and important challenge. Pediatric-specific communication skills teaching is complex and under-researched. We report on the development of a scenario-based pediatric clinical communication skills program as well as students' assessment of this module. We designed a pediatric clinical communication skills program and delivered it five times during one academic year via small-group teaching. Students were asked to score the workshop in eight domains (learning objectives, complexity, interest, competencies, confidence, tutors, feedback, and discussion) using 5-point Likert scales, along with free text comments that were grouped and analyzed thematically, identifying both the strengths of the workshop and changes suggested to improve future delivery. Two hundred and twenty-one of 275 (80%) student feedback forms were returned. Ninety-six percent of students' comments were positive or very positive, highlighting themes such as the timing of teaching, relevance, group sizes, and the use of actors, tutors, and clinical scenarios. Scenario-based teaching of clinical communication skills is positively received by students. Studies need to demonstrate an impact on practice, performance, development, and sustainability of communications training.

CSI-Chocolate Science Investigation and the Case of the Recipe Rip-Off: Using an Extended Problem-Based Scenario to Enhance High School Students' Science Engagement

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Marle, Peter D.; Decker, Lisa; Taylor, Victoria; Fitzpatrick, Kathleen; Khaliqi, David; Owens, Janel E.; Henry, Renee M.

2014-01-01

This paper discusses a K-12/university collaboration in which students participated in a four-day scenario-based summer STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) camp aimed at making difficult scientific concepts salient. This scenario, Jumpstart STEM-CSI: Chocolate Science Investigation (JSCSI), used open- and guided-inquiry…

Development of health inter-professional telemedicine practice through simulation scenario training with students of physiotherapy-, occupational therapy-, medical laboratory technology, and nursing education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nortvig, Anne-Mette; Vestergaard, Kitt

. Aims: The purpose of the project was • to develop practice oriented competences related to telemedicine in an inter-professional and a cross-sectoral context among health professional students of physiotherapy-, occupational therapy-, medical laboratory technology-, and nursing education. • to motivate...... and retain male students by the use of simulation training that involves technology. Methodology: The project was settled as a cross-professional telemedicine course on health educations. Nursing students (N=20) and physiotherapy students (N=34) participated actively and the scenarios were filmed and enacted...

"What Line Will You Take with This Person?": Scenarios for Strategic Interaction.

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Docker, Julie

1990-01-01

Presents two-role scenarios involving persons with conflicting needs or interests to enhance foreign language students' strategic intervention language skills in realistic situations. The scenarios not only encourage students to think through strategies to resolve a problem or conflict but also use their language skills to communicate effectively…

An activity theory perspective of how scenario-based simulations support learning: a descriptive analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Battista, Alexis

2017-01-01

The dominant frameworks for describing how simulations support learning emphasize increasing access to structured practice and the provision of feedback which are commonly associated with skills-based simulations. By contrast, studies examining student participants' experiences during scenario-based simulations suggest that learning may also occur through participation. However, studies directly examining student participation during scenario-based simulations are limited. This study examined the types of activities student participants engaged in during scenario-based simulations and then analyzed their patterns of activity to consider how participation may support learning. Drawing from Engeström's first-, second-, and third-generation activity systems analysis, an in-depth descriptive analysis was conducted. The study drew from multiple qualitative methods, namely narrative, video, and activity systems analysis, to examine student participants' activities and interaction patterns across four video-recorded simulations depicting common motivations for using scenario-based simulations (e.g., communication, critical patient management). The activity systems analysis revealed that student participants' activities encompassed three clinically relevant categories, including (a) use of physical clinical tools and artifacts, (b) social interactions, and (c) performance of structured interventions. Role assignment influenced participants' activities and the complexity of their engagement. Importantly, participants made sense of the clinical situation presented in the scenario by reflexively linking these three activities together. Specifically, student participants performed structured interventions, relying upon the use of physical tools, clinical artifacts, and social interactions together with interactions between students, standardized patients, and other simulated participants to achieve their goals. When multiple student participants were present, such as in a

Development formalization of the e-learning pedagogical scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Олександр Іванович Пушкар

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The place of the pedagogical scenario in development of the e-learning support system has been defined. The process of student's interaction with the system of e-learning in the form of a proper dialogue has been proposed. Peculiarities of constructing typical models of scenarios of academic disciplines have been analyzed. A technique for quantitative assessment of the relationships between the objects of study in the model of a pedagogical scenario has been offered

Questions Asked by Primary Student Teachers about Observations of a Science Demonstration

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Ahtee, Maija; Juuti, Kalle; Lavonen, Jari; Suomela, Liisa

2011-01-01

Teacher questioning has a central role in guiding pupils to learn to make scientific observations and inferences. We asked 110 primary student teachers to write down what kind of questions they would ask their pupils about a demonstration. Almost half of the student teachers posed questions that were either inappropriate or presupposed that the…

Scenarios and innovative systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-11-01

The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

DEMONSTRATION IN THE DIII-D TOKAMAK OF AN ALTERNATE BASELINE SCENARIO FOR ITER AND OTHER BURNING PLASMA EXPERIMENTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LUCE, T.C.; WADE, M.R.; FERRON, J.R.; HYATT, A.W.; KELLMAN, A.G.; KINSEY, J.E.; LAHAY, R.J.; LASNIER, C.J.; MURAKAMI, M.; POLITZER, P.A.; SCOVILLE, J.T.

2002-01-01

OAK A271 DEMONSTRATION IN THE DIII-D TOKAMAK OF AN ALTERNATE BASELINE SCENARIO FOR ITER AND OTHER BURNING PLASMA EXPERIMENTS. Discharges which can satisfy the high gain goals of burning plasma experiments have been demonstrated in the DIII-D tokamak in stationary conditions with relatively low plasma current (q 95 > 4). A figure of merit for fusion gain Β N H 89 /q 95 2 has been maintained at values corresponding to Q = 10 operation in a burning plasma for > 6 s or 36 τ E and 2 τ R . The key element is the relaxation of the current profile to a stationary state with q min > 1, which allows stable operation up to the no-wall ideal β limit. These plasmas maintain particle balance by active pumping rather than transient wall conditions. The reduced current lessens significantly the potential for structural damage in the event of a major disruption

Using discrepant events in science demonstrations to promote student engagement in scientific investigations: An action research study

Science.gov (United States)

Mancuso, Vincent J.

Students' scientific investigations have been identified in national standards and related reform documents as a critical component of students' learning experiences in school, yet it is not easy to implement them in science classrooms. Could science demonstrations help science teachers put this recommendation into practice? While demonstrations are a common practice in the science classroom and research has documented some positive effects in terms of student motivation and engagement from their use, the literature also shows that, as traditionally presented, science demonstrations do not always achieve their intended outcomes. This, in turn, suggested the value of investigating what design elements of demonstrations could be used to promote specific instructional goals. Employing action research as a methodology, the proposed study was developed to explore how science demonstrations can be designed so as to most effectively promote student engagement in scientific investigations. More specifically, I was interested in examining the effects of using a discrepant event as part of the demonstration, as a way to create cognitive conflict and, thus, increase interest and engagement. I also investigated the relative merit of the well-researched POE (Predict, Observe, Explain) design versus employing demonstrations that appear to the student to be unplanned (what I will refer to as NOE, or a Naturally Occurring Experience). This study was informed by Constructivism, Situated Cognition and Conceptual Change as theoretical frameworks. The project included the design, implementation and study of an intervention consisting of three instructional units designed to support students' learning of the concepts of density, molecular arrangement of gas particles, and cohesion, respectively. In each of these units, lasting a total of two 80-minute class periods, students were asked to design and conduct an investigation to gain a better understanding of the concept under study. In

H2Oh!: Classroom demonstrations and activities for improving student learning of water concepts

Science.gov (United States)

Chan-Hilton, A.; Neupauer, R. M.; Burian, S. J.; Lauer, J. W.; Mathisen, P. P.; Mays, D. C.; Olson, M. S.; Pomeroy, C. A.; Ruddell, B. L.; Sciortino, A.

2012-12-01

Research has shown that the use of demonstrations and hands-on activities in the classroom enhances student learning. Students learn more and enjoy classes more when visual and active learning are incorporated into the lecture. Most college-aged students prefer visual modes of learning, while most instruction is conducted in a lecture, or auditory, format. The use of classroom demonstrations provides opportunities for incorporating visual and active learning into the classroom environment. However, while most instructors acknowledge the benefits of these teaching methods, they typically do not have the time and resources to develop and test such activities and to develop plans to incorporate them into their lectures. Members of the Excellence in Water Resources Education Task Committee of the Environmental and Water Resources Institute (EWRI) of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) have produced a publication that contains a collection of activities aimed to foster excellence in water resources and hydrology education and improve student learning of principles. The book contains forty-five demonstrations and activities that can be used in water-related classes with topics in fluid mechanics, hydraulics, surface water hydrology, groundwater hydrology, and water quality. We present examples of these activities, including topics such as conservation of momentum, buoyancy, Bernoulli's principle, drag force, pipe flow, watershed delineation, reservoir networks, head distribution in aquifers, and molecular diffusion in a porous medium. Unlike full laboratory exercises, these brief demonstrations and activities (most of which take less than fifteen minutes) can be easily incorporated into classroom lectures. For each demonstration, guidance for preparing and conducting the activity, along with a brief overview of the principles that are demonstrated, is provided. The target audience of the activities is undergraduate students, although the activities also may be

Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Selin, Cynthia Lea

2006-01-01

formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

Comparison of traditional advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) course instruction vs. a scenario-based, performance oriented team instruction (SPOTI) method for Korean paramedic students.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Christopher C; Im, Mark; Kim, Tae Min; Stapleton, Edward R; Kim, Kyuseok; Suh, Gil Joon; Singer, Adam J; Henry, Mark C

2010-01-01

Current Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) course instruction involves a 2-day course with traditional lectures and limited team interaction. We wish to explore the advantages of a scenario-based performance-oriented team instruction (SPOTI) method to implement core ACLS skills for non-English-speaking international paramedic students. The objective of this study was to determine if scenario-based, performance-oriented team instruction (SPOTI) improves educational outcomes for the ACLS instruction of Korean paramedic students. Thirty Korean paramedic students were randomly selected into two groups. One group of 15 students was taught the traditional ACLS course. The other 15 students were instructed using a SPOTI method. Each group was tested using ACLS megacode examinations endorsed by the American Heart Association. All 30 students passed the ACLS megacode examination. In the traditional ACLS study group an average of 85% of the core skills were met. In the SPOTI study group an average of 93% of the core skills were met. In particular, the SPOTI study group excelled at physical examination skills such as airway opening, assessment of breathing, signs of circulation, and compression rates. In addition, the SPOTI group performed with higher marks on rhythm recognition compared to the traditional group. The traditional group performed with higher marks at providing proper drug dosages compared to the SPOTI students. However, the students enrolled in the SPOTI method resulted in higher megacode core compliance scores compared to students trained in traditional ACLS course instruction. These differences did not achieve statistical significance due to the small sample size. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

SCENARIO-BASED eLEARNING AND STEM EDUCATION: A QUALITATIVE STUDY EXPLORING THE PERSPECTIVES OF EDUCATORS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David E. Proudfoot

2017-06-01

Full Text Available There are a variety of extra curricular activities and programs that aim to promote Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM education, but there are limited examples of extending STEM curriculum by employing scenario-based eLearning opportunities in a mobile lab learning environment. Following students participation in a first of its kind STEM Mobile Lab program that uses a scenario-based eLearning approach for instruction, twelve educators from four Title I elementary schools were asked about their perceptions of the influence of the Mobile Lab program on the STEM education of their students. The semi-structured interview protocol contained questions intended to explore participants’ perceptions regarding the influence of a scenario-based eLearning Mobile STEM Lab program on the STEM interest and achievement of students. The study found that a scenario-based eLearning Mobile STEM Lab can influence STEM interest and achievement of elementary students. This promising finding leads to a recommendation for educators to use this approach and similar programs to make students more interested in science and improve their grades. Efforts by educators to design and implement scenario-based eLearning opportunities lead to increased learner engagement.

A Study of the Competency of Third Year Medical Students to Interpret Biochemically Based Clinical Scenarios Using Knowledge and Skills Gained in Year 1 and 2

Science.gov (United States)

Gowda, Veena Bhaskar S.; Nagaiah, Bhaskar Hebbani; Sengodan, Bharathi

2016-01-01

Medical students build clinical knowledge on the grounds of previously obtained basic knowledge. The study aimed to evaluate the competency of third year medical students to interpret biochemically based clinical scenarios using knowledge and skills gained during year 1 and 2 of undergraduate medical training. Study was conducted on year 3 MBBS…

A Methodology to Assess UrbanSim Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

2012-09-01

reconfigurable modules of video , game-based scenarios, digital tutors, and assessments tailored to learners. They incorporate the use of social...deeper levels for student decisions, it becomes increasingly more problematic to verify the desired underlying pedagogy is present (Wang et al...training impact of the training videos associated with the UrbanSim training package. The research team found that students that watched and implemented

Increasing Interest in Cognitive Psychology Using Scenario-Based Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Cormack, Sophie

2014-01-01

Students often perceive cognitive psychology as an abstract and difficult subject with little intrinsic interest. When student feedback identified problems with the traditional essay assessment in a cognitive psychology module, action research led to the development of a forensic scenario-based assessment which successfully increased student…

Student Friendly Technique to Demonstrate Coordination between Postural (Involuntary) and Voluntary Muscle Contractions.

Science.gov (United States)

Colgan, Wes

2015-01-01

Electromyography is a very useful technique for a number of clinical and research applications in physiology and other life science applications. We have adapted this technique as a student exercise to explore important aspects of postural control. With minimal effort and some mathematical calculations this student friendly technique efficiently demonstrates the interaction of anticipatory, or feedforward, mechanisms and feedback correction from sensory input.

Malaysian adolescent students' needs for enhancing thinking skills, counteracting risk factors and demonstrating academic resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Kuldas, Seffetullah; Hashim, Shahabuddin; Ismail, Hairul Nizam

2015-01-01

The adolescence period of life comes along with changes and challenges in terms of physical and cognitive development. In this hectic period, many adolescents may suffer more from various risk factors such as low socioeconomic status, substance abuse, sexual abuse and teenage pregnancy. Findings indicate that such disadvantaged backgrounds of Malaysian adolescent students lead to failure or underachievement in their academic performance. This narrative review scrutinises how some of these students are able to demonstrate academic resilience, which is satisfactory performance in cognitive or academic tasks in spite of their disadvantaged backgrounds. The review stresses the need for developing a caregiving relationship model for at-risk adolescent students in Malaysia. Such a model would allow educators to meet the students' needs for enhancing thinking skills, counteracting risk factors and demonstrating academic resilience. PMID:25663734

Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme for Enhancing the English Language Efficiency among Primary School Students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Navnath Tupe

2015-07-01

Full Text Available This research was undertaken with a view to assess the deficiencies in English language among Primary School Children and to develop Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme (MSBLP for mastery of English language which required special attention and effective treatment. The experimental study with pretest, post-test control group design was employed to carry out the experiment of MSBLP in a sample school and to determine its efficacy for enhancing English Language skills among Primary School Students. In India, the Central and State Government has made great efforts to Education for All (EFA and initiated several programs to provide universal access to education, to reduce the drop-out rates and ensure achievement of minimum levels of learning. To our surprise the scenario had not much changed inside the classroom even implementing several programmes. However, it was still unclear how effective was the delivery of the course content in the classroom. An intensive training for teachers on a regular basis on a state-wide scale may not be feasible again and again. Hence, multimedia offers pragmatic solutions So that this research paper devoted to explore the issues of learning English and describes the creation of MSBLP as a solution in scientific manner.

Demonstration of the greenhouse effect for elementary school students

Science.gov (United States)

Radovanovic, Jelena

2014-05-01

The school where I work is part of the "Step by step towards the sustainable development school" project. Project activities are partly directed towards the popularization of science. As a physics teacher, I have had the opportunity to engage in designing interactive workshops, aiming to introduce younger students to simple experiments which illustrate different natural phenomena, and also in organization, preparation and implementation of school and city science festival (in 2012 and 2013). Numerous displays, workshops and experiments served to introduce a large number of visitors to different topics in the area of science and technology. One of the subjects of forthcoming science festival, planned for May of 2014, is the climate change. To that effect, eight grade students will hold a demonstration and explanation of the greenhouse effect. Although the terms greenhouse effect and global warming are widely used in media, most of the elementary school students in Serbia have poor understanding of the underlying scientific concepts. The experiment with analysis and discussion will first be implemented in one eight-grade class (14 years of age). After that, a group of students from this class will present their newly-acquired knowledge to their peers and younger students at the science fair. Activity objectives: • Explain how atmosphere affects the surface temperature of Earth • Conduct an experiment to demonstrate the greenhouse effect • Analyze the consequences of climate changes Experiment description: Take two empty, transparent containers and add a layer of garden soil. Use cardboard or similar material to make housings for the thermometers. Hang them in the containers, so that they don't touch the soil. Cover one container with a glass panel, and leave the other one open. Place identical incandescent light bulbs at the same distance above each container. Turn the light bulbs on. The students should mark the thermometer readings every 2 minutes, for 20

Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Z.

1992-01-01

Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

Developing Pharmacy Student Communication Skills through Role-Playing and Active Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Zeszotarski, Paula; Ma, Carolyn

2015-01-01

Objective. To evaluate the impact on pharmacy students of a communication course, which used role-playing to develop active-learning skills. Design. Students role-playing pharmacists in patient care scenarios were critiqued by students and pharmacist faculty members. Grading was performed using the rubric inspired by Bruce Berger’s Communication Skills for Pharmacists. Written skills were evaluated using student written critique questionnaires. Students completed precourse and postcourse self-assessment surveys. Preceptor evaluations were analyzed for course impact. Assessment. Students demonstrated improvement in oral skills based on role-play scores (45.87/50) after practice sessions. The average score based on the student questionnaire was 9.31/10. Gain was demonstrated in all defined course objectives. Impact on introductory pharmacy practice experience (IPPE) communication objectives was insignificant. Student evaluations for course and teaching strategy reflected a high average. Conclusion. Study results demonstrated improvement in oral and written communication skills that may help improve interprofessional teamwork between pharmacists and other health care providers. PMID:25995519

Developing pharmacy student communication skills through role-playing and active learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Luiz Adrian, Julie Ann; Zeszotarski, Paula; Ma, Carolyn

2015-04-25

To evaluate the impact on pharmacy students of a communication course, which used role-playing to develop active-learning skills. Students role-playing pharmacists in patient care scenarios were critiqued by students and pharmacist faculty members. Grading was performed using the rubric inspired by Bruce Berger's Communication Skills for Pharmacists. Written skills were evaluated using student written critique questionnaires. Students completed precourse and postcourse self-assessment surveys. Preceptor evaluations were analyzed for course impact. Students demonstrated improvement in oral skills based on role-play scores (45.87/50) after practice sessions. The average score based on the student questionnaire was 9.31/10. Gain was demonstrated in all defined course objectives. Impact on introductory pharmacy practice experience (IPPE) communication objectives was insignificant. Student evaluations for course and teaching strategy reflected a high average. Study results demonstrated improvement in oral and written communication skills that may help improve interprofessional teamwork between pharmacists and other health care providers.

Analyses to demonstrate the structural performance of the CASTOR KN12 in hypothetical accident drop accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diersch, R.; Weiss, M.; Tso, C.F.; Chung, S.H.; Lee, H.Y.

2004-01-01

CASTORc ircledR KN-12 is a new cask design by GNB for KHNP-NETEC for dry and wet transportation of up to twelve spent PWR fuel assemblies in Korea. It received its transport license from the Korean Competent Authority KINS in July 2002 and is now in use in South Korea. It has been designed to satisfy the regulatory requirements of the 10 CFR 71 and the IAEA ST-1 for Type B(U)F packages. Its structural performance was demonstrated against the load cases and boundary conditions as defined in 10 CFR 71 and NRC's Regulatory Guide 7.8, and further explained in NUREG 1617. This included normal conditions of transport load cases - including Hot Environment, Cold Environment, Increased External Pressure (140MPa), Minimum External Pressure (24.5kPa), Vibration and shock, and 0.3m free drop - and the hypothetical accident conditions load cases - including the 9m Free Drop, Puncture, Thermal Fire Accident, 200m Water Immersion and 1.5 x MNOP Internal Pressure. Structural performance were demonstrated by analysis, including state-of-the-art finite element (FE) simulation, and confirmed by tests using a 1/3-scale model. Test results were also used to verify the numerical tool and the methods used in the analyses. All the structural analyses including validation against drop tests were carried out by Arup, and testing were carried out by KAERI. This paper concentrates on the analysis carried out to demonstrate performance in the hypothetical accident 9m free drop scenarios, and results from a small selection of them

Analyses to demonstrate the structural performance of the CASTOR KN12 in hypothetical accident drop accident scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diersch, R.; Weiss, M. [Gesellschaft fuer Nuklear-Behaelter mbH (Germany); Tso, C.F. [Arup (United Kingdom); Chung, S.H.; Lee, H.Y. [KHNP-NETEC (Korea)

2004-07-01

CASTORc{sup ircledR} KN-12 is a new cask design by GNB for KHNP-NETEC for dry and wet transportation of up to twelve spent PWR fuel assemblies in Korea. It received its transport license from the Korean Competent Authority KINS in July 2002 and is now in use in South Korea. It has been designed to satisfy the regulatory requirements of the 10 CFR 71 and the IAEA ST-1 for Type B(U)F packages. Its structural performance was demonstrated against the load cases and boundary conditions as defined in 10 CFR 71 and NRC's Regulatory Guide 7.8, and further explained in NUREG 1617. This included normal conditions of transport load cases - including Hot Environment, Cold Environment, Increased External Pressure (140MPa), Minimum External Pressure (24.5kPa), Vibration and shock, and 0.3m free drop - and the hypothetical accident conditions load cases - including the 9m Free Drop, Puncture, Thermal Fire Accident, 200m Water Immersion and 1.5 x MNOP Internal Pressure. Structural performance were demonstrated by analysis, including state-of-the-art finite element (FE) simulation, and confirmed by tests using a 1/3-scale model. Test results were also used to verify the numerical tool and the methods used in the analyses. All the structural analyses including validation against drop tests were carried out by Arup, and testing were carried out by KAERI. This paper concentrates on the analysis carried out to demonstrate performance in the hypothetical accident 9m free drop scenarios, and results from a small selection of them.

The negaWatt 2011 scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-03-01

This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Lourenço Junior

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, R. J.

2015-12-01

Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

The use of evidence-informed sustainability scenarios in the nursing curriculum: development and evaluation of teaching methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Janet; Grose, Jane; Doman, Maggie; Kelsey, Janet

2014-04-01

Climate change and resource scarcity pose challenges for healthcare in the future, yet there is little to raise awareness about these issues in the nursing curriculum and nurses are poorly equipped to practice in a changing climate. The aims of this paper are to describe how an evidence-informed 'sustainability and health' scenario based on two sustainability issues (resource depletion and waste management) was introduced into a nursing clinical skills session, and to report the evaluation of the session. Based on evidence from our own research on waste management, sustainable procurement and resource scarcity, a practical hands-on skill session was delivered to 30 second year student nurses as part of a scheduled clinical skills day. The session was observed by one of the facilitators and interactions recorded and this was followed by a brief questionnaire completed by participants. Observations of the group sessions and discussion found that students demonstrated limited knowledge about natural resources (such as oil) used in the production of items used in healthcare; they engaged in discussions following the use of Internet resources, and were able to segregate waste appropriately. Thirty (100%) students completed the evaluation questionnaire, found the resources used in the skill session helpful, and thought that the scenarios were realistic. Nineteen reported being more aware of peak oil; 30 were more aware of risks to patient experience and service delivery if resources become unavailable; 30 reported greater awareness of the management of waste in healthcare. Comments on the questionnaire indicated a high level of engagement and interest in the subject. The problem of climate change and resource scarcity can too easily be seen as a distant or intractable problem. However one way to make this topic real for students is through the use of clinically relevant scenarios in skill sessions. © 2013.

Construction and Evaluation of Scenarios as a Learning Strategy through Modelling-Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Luis Peñaloza Figueroa

2014-12-01

Full Text Available From a systemic perspective and in the context of an increasing generalization in the use of new technologies and the change in the educational paradigm -which emphasizes guided and autonomous learning-, the learning strategy should be routed to join logical reasoning and instrumental skills (software. The inclusion of new computing and communication resources to the learning process turns them into teaching tools, which makes it possible to organize the teaching and learning process in a different way. The design of these new scenarios of study has important implications to the way information is processed, to the different levels of learning (descriptive, explanatory or analytical ones and to the way knowledge is acquired and evaluated. In addition, that design takes into account the greater student-content, student-student and student-teacher interactivities, always emphasizing guided independent learning. Thus, the construction, analysis and evaluation of scenarios through models and simulation are the strategy that best suits the current learning style followed by students.

‘Cheap & Cheerful’ – Demonstrating Control to 1st Year Engineering Students

OpenAIRE

McLoone, Seamus; Maloco, John

2015-01-01

• Illustrating the concept of system control to Electronic Engineering students is typically achieved through simulation and theory. However, we wanted a hardware demonstration ... • Existing commercial hardware products are simply too expensive and too bulky to adequately equip a typical undergraduate Engineering hardware-based laboratory … • So, we built our own !!

Teachers’ assessments of demonstration of student initiative

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Komlenović Đurđica

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper explores student initiative or student engagement in activities in school environment, as an aspect of students’ functioning that is assumed to be a prerequisite for their contribution to the quality of instruction and better use of possibilities for education and development in school environment. We approach this topic from teachers’ perspective since it is our aim to observe how teachers assess the initiative of their students (how important it is, how it is manifested, how present it is in different segments of school activities. In the first part of the paper we analyze the construct “student initiative” and a similar construct “student engagement”. In the second part of the paper we present the results of a research in which primary school teachers (N=182 from the territory of Serbia expressed their views on student initiative. Teachers’ answers to open- and close-ended questions from the questionnaire (19 items in total were processed by quantitative and qualitative methodology. Research results indicate that the majority of teachers believed that student initiative was a very important general feature of behavior in school environment, independent of age, which was most present in the domain of peer socializing and relationship with teachers, and least present in the very domains of student functioning that teachers deemed the most desirable (mastering the curriculum, regulation of disciplinary issues. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179034: Od podsticanja inicijative, saradnje, stvaralaštva u obrazovanju do novih uloga i identiteta u društvu i br. 47008: Unapređivanje kvaliteta i dostupnosti obrazovanja u procesima modernizacije Srbije

Effectiveness of Demonstration and Lecture Methods in Learning Concept in Economics among Secondary School Students in Borno State, Nigeria

Science.gov (United States)

Muhammad, Amin Umar; Bala, Dauda; Ladu, Kolomi Mutah

2016-01-01

This study investigated the Effectiveness of Demonstration and Lecture Methods in Learning concepts in Economics among Secondary School Students in Borno state, Nigeria. Five objectives: to determine the effectiveness of demonstration method in learning economics concepts among secondary school students in Borno state, determine the effectiveness…

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

Leadership and teamwork in medical emergencies: performance of nursing students and registered nurses in simulated patient scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Endacott, Ruth; Bogossian, Fiona E; Cooper, Simon J; Forbes, Helen; Kain, Victoria J; Young, Susan C; Porter, Joanne E

2015-01-01

To examine nursing students' and registered nurses' teamwork skills whilst managing simulated deteriorating patients. Studies continue to show the lack of timely recognition of patient deterioration. Management of deteriorating patients can be influenced by education and experience. Mixed methods study conducted in two universities and a rural hospital in Victoria, and one university in Queensland, Australia. Three simulation scenarios (chest pain, hypovolaemic shock and respiratory distress) were completed in teams of three by 97 nursing students and 44 registered nurses, equating to a total of 32 student and 15 registered nurse teams. Data were obtained from (1) Objective Structured Clinical Examination rating to assess performance; (2) Team Emergency Assessment Measure scores to assess teamwork; (3) simulation video footage; (4) reflective interview during participants' review of video footage. Qualitative thematic analysis of video and interview data was undertaken. Objective structured clinical examination performance was similar across registered nurses and students (mean 54% and 49%); however, Team Emergency Assessment Measure scores differed significantly between the two groups (57% vs 38%, t = 6·841, p student teams: r = 0·530, p = 0·004, registered nurse teams r = 0·903, p student teams: r = 0·534, p = 0·02, registered nurse teams: r = 0·535, p = 0·049). Themes generated from the analysis of the combined quantitative and qualitative data were as follows: (1) leadership and followership behaviours; (2) help-seeking behaviours; (3) reliance on previous experience; (4) fixation on a single detail; and (5) team support. There is scope to improve leadership, team work and task management skills for registered nurses and nursing students. Simulation appears to be beneficial in enabling less experienced staff to assess their teamwork skills. There is a need to encourage less experienced staff to become leaders and for all staff to develop improved

Keeping it pure – a pedagogical case study of teaching soft systems methodology in scenario and policy analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ian Yeoman

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Purpose – Soft systems methodology (SSM is well documented in the academic and management literature. Over the last 40 years, the methodology has come to be adapted depending on the tool users’ skills and experience in order to fit the problem. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate good teaching and learning practice from a pedagogical perspective. Design/methodology/approach – Dr Ian Yeoman of Victoria University of Wellington provides a personal reflection of how the methodology is used in the teaching and learning of TOUR301 Tourism Policy and Planning as a policy and scenario analysis method. Findings – The paper articulates the seven stages of SSM from problem situation unstructured, through to Rich Pictures, vision and guiding principles, policy solutions, comparisons, feasibility and implementation stages. The paper uses a series of teaching tasks to breakdown the complexity of the methodology thus guiding students and teachers in how to deploy the methodology in the classroom. Originality/value – The value of the paper demonstrates the reflective practice of SSM in action as an exemplar of good practice. The paper clearly articulates the stages of the methodology so students and teachers can adopt this approach in classroom environments following a scaffolding learning approach. The use of teaching tasks throughout the paper helps bring clarity and order thus enabling the teacher to effectively teach the subject and the students to learn. The most significant contribution of this paper is the articulation of good teaching practice in policy and scenario analysis which articulated through four learning lessons: facilitating a learning environment; the impact of visual thinking; political theory; the importance of incremental learning; and problem-based learning and international students.

Students' Perceptions, Attitudes, and Incorporation of Demonstrations, Popular Media Videos, and Animations Concerning Chemical Reactions

Science.gov (United States)

Schlosser, Sarah Elizabeth

2012-01-01

Students often struggle with learning complex chemistry concepts. In today's society with the advances in multimedia technology, educators have a variety of tools available to help students learn these concepts. These tools include demonstrations, videos in the popular media, and animations; referred to collectively as multimethods. With the…

SERENITY in e-Business and Smart Item Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Benameur, Azzedine; Khoury, Paul El; Seguran, Magali; Sinha, Smriti Kumar

SERENITY Artefacts, like Class, Patterns, Implementations and Executable Components for Security & Dependability (S&D) in addition to Serenity Runtime Framework (SRF) are discussed in previous chapters. How to integrate these artefacts with applications in Serenity approach is discussed here with two scenarios. The e-Business scenario is a standard loan origination process in a bank. The Smart Item scenario is an Ambient intelligence case study where we take advantage of Smart Items to provide an electronic healthcare infrastructure for remote healthcare assistance. In both cases, we detail how the prototype implementations of the scenarios select proper executable components through Serenity Runtime Framework and then demonstrate how these executable components of the S&D Patterns are deployed.

The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

2016-01-01

We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ‘easy’ scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty. (paper)

Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

1998-01-01

This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

Improvisation of Real-Life Scenarios through Intercultural Competence

Science.gov (United States)

Okten, Celile Eren; Griffin, Banu Ozer

2016-01-01

This paper describes tasks based on real-life scenarios, which triggered reflective thinking, verbalization, and writing, leading to the creation of natural dialogues rather than artificial, dull monologues. One of the main aims of this approach is to engage students in a dynamic process of both learning about multicultural participants and…

Effect of Demonstration Method of Teaching on Students' Achievement in Agricultural Science

Science.gov (United States)

Daluba, Noah Ekeyi

2013-01-01

The study investigated the effect of demonstration method of teaching on students' achievement in agricultural science in secondary school in Kogi East Education Zone of Kogi State. Two research questions and one hypothesis guided the study. The study employed a quasi-experimental research design. The population for the study was 18225 senior…

Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

2004-07-01

In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bækgaard, Lars

The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

The Effect of Interactive Lecture Demonstrations on Students' Understanding of Heat and Temperature: A Study from Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Tanahoung, Choksin; Chitaree, Ratchapak; Soankwan, Chernchok; Sharma, Manjula D.; Johnston, Ian D.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of Interactive Lecture Demonstrations over traditional instruction on university students' understanding of heat and temperature. The participants were 327 first year undergraduate students from two science classes in two academic years from the same university in Thailand. One class…

Temporal aspects in the development of a cascading-event crisis scenario: A pilot demonstration of the CRISMA project

Science.gov (United States)

Aubrecht, Christoph; Almeida, Miguel; Polese, Maria; Reva, Valeria; Steinnocher, Klaus; Zuccaro, Giulio

2013-04-01

In this abstract we illustrate the various temporal aspects to be considered in a multi-hazard crisis scenario set up as pilot study in the EU-FP7 Integrated Project CRISMA. In the framework of CRISMA a simulation-based decision support system for crisis management is developed facilitating the modeling of realistic crisis scenarios, related pre-event vulnerabilities, as well as possible response actions and associated varying potential impacts on society. Both external factors driving crisis development and actions of the involved crisis management team are considered in the system setup. The presented case is a complex cascading-event crisis scenario that is initiated by an earthquake causing building collapse and a consequent gas pipeline failure that triggers a follow-up fire in a nearby forest with potential to spread and endangering a village of the neighborhood. In terms of the hazard components, major earthquakes are rapid-onset events that can occur at any time without warning while fires are rather slow-progressing hazards usually allowing a certain lead time for preparations. In our scenario, which is based on the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy, a series of low-magnitude events preceding the main shock over a few months increases population awareness and at the same time brings disaster managers to assess risks and evaluate evacuation options already in the pre-disaster phase. This seismic swarm and the associated period of increased general awareness thus add an additional temporal component to the scenario, initiating response considerations earlier as when compared to a single shock scenario. In addition, the seismic vulnerability of buildings may increase due to damage accumulation, with higher probability of collapse at a given earthquake intensity. With regard to best possible impact mitigation, detailed spatio-temporal exposure and vulnerability characteristics of population and associated assets have to be analyzed for all crisis stages

Scenarios and innovative systems; Scenarii et systemes innovants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-11-01

The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

Carbon reduction scenarios for 2050: An explorative analysis of public preferences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, Patricia; Chatterton, Tim

2013-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of public preferences for a low carbon future UK and compares them with three future scenarios proposed by the UK government based on data from 10,983 self-selected participants who engaged in the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change ‘My2050’ online simulation. Participants expressed a stronger preference for demand-side options than for supply-side ones. They also chose fuel switching (to electricity) and technical energy efficiency measures above more behaviour focused options. Renewable energy options (wind, solar, marine and hydro) were preferred to other low carbon supply options (nuclear power, carbon capture and storage), with offshore wind power more popular than onshore. Nuclear power was the least popular generation option. Acceptability of the government′s three proposed scenarios was tested by comparing these scenarios with the research findings. Greatest support was suggested for the two scenarios emphasising business greenness, home energy efficiency, electrification of home heating and travel behaviour. The lowest level of support was demonstrated for the scenario based on significant growth in nuclear power with minimal increases in energy efficiency. Despite issues regarding the representivity of the sampled respondents, the work demonstrates the possibility of using outputs from the tool to assess publically preferred pathways. - Highlights: • Examination of >10,000 initial responses to UK government ‘My 2050’ simulation. • A number of patterns were identified in the responses. • Participants preferred renewable energy options to other low carbon supply options. • The alignment of public preferences with government scenarios was assessed. • The value of scenario simulations for public engagement was demonstrated with caveats

Perceptions of acceptable conducts by university students.

Science.gov (United States)

Marques, Dora Nazaré; Macedo, António Filipe

2016-01-01

To determine perceptions of acceptable conducts amongst under and postgraduate optometry students and to compare them with students from other disciplines. Students (under/postgraduate) of optometry (n=156) and other courses (n=54) from University of Minho participated in a voluntary online questionnaire about perception of conducts, classifying as acceptable or unacceptable 15 academic or professional scenarios. 210 questionnaires were analyzed. Differences in perceptions were found between optometry under and postgraduates in scenario 5, Chi-square(2,156)=4.3, p=0.038, and scenario 7, Chi-square(2,156)=7.0, p=0.008 (both with cheating more acceptable for postgrads). Differences between under and postgraduates from other courses were found in scenario 9 (taking supplies from classroom more acceptable for undergrads), Chi-square(1,54)=5.0, p=0.025, and scenario 14 (forging a signature more acceptable for postgrads), Chi-square(1,54)=3.9, p=0.046. Differences between optometry and other courses undergraduates were observed in scenario 2 (plagiarism more acceptable for optometry undergrads), Chi-square(1,154)=8.3, p=0.004 and scenario 9 (taking supplies from classroom more acceptable for other undergrads), chi-square(1,54)=7.8, p=0.005. Differences between optometry and other courses postgraduates were observed in scenario 7, Chi-square(1,56)=5.8, p=0.016, scenario 10 (both with cheating more acceptable for optometry postgrads), chi-square(1,54)=8.1, p=0.004 and scenario 14 (forging a signature more acceptable for other postgrads), Chi-square(1,54)=6.1, p=0.026. Academic misconducts were mainly considered more acceptable than professional misconducts. Our results show that perceptions of acceptable conducts amongst optometry students are not very different from other students, and, against our initial prediction, do not show a general change in misconduct perception when students become more mature. Universities should pay more attention to this problem and take

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Redesigning and Reframing Educational Scenarios for Minecraft Within Mother Tongue Education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tanghøj, Thorkild; Jessen, Carsten; Hautopp, Hedie

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to describe the opportunities and challenges involved in designing educational scenarios for teaching with the computer game Minecraft in mother tongue education (MTE). The empirical data presented is based on an on‐going research project, funded by the Danish Ministry...... of Education, which explores the use of a particular game map entitled “The Mysterious Island” in the context of MTE in five primary school classes (age 7‐8) located at two different Danish schools. The Mysterious Island scenario is a loosely structured Robinsonade narrative that invites the students...... of game scenarios can be understood as a dynamic interplay of different domains and knowledge practices. In this way, the educational use of The Mysterious Island is understood as socially negotiated translations between the knowledge practices of the Robinsonade‐based game scenario, the knowledge...

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Implementation of an education development project in pathology to improve student competency-lessons learnt.

Science.gov (United States)

Negi, Gita; Harsh, Meena; Chauhan, Vijendra D; Kalra, Vinita; Agarwal, Pradeep; Kusum, Anuradha

2015-08-01

Basic medical sciences and clinical teachings are not coordinated in the present medical education system. They are not taught keeping in mind the outcomes required at the time of actual handling of patients in the community. An educational development project was implemented in the Department of Pathology with the aim that it will result in the student learning to link the pathophysiology of the disease to clinical scenarios and become fully competent for lifelong medical practice. The pathology teaching of the second professional batch was modified by starting with defining the desired outcomes/competencies in the student's knowledge, skills, and attitude which were then addressed by lectures, demonstrations, practical classes and small group activities where case scenarios and laboratory reports were included. The outcome was assessed by Objectively Structured Clinical/Practical Examination and multiple choice questions. Force field analysis, faculty and student interviews, and questionnaires were used to assess the factors affecting its implementation and impact. Totally 80 students of the 2(nd) Professional MBBS were exposed to a competency-based education development project. It was found that the system was appreciated by faculty and students, especially the integration with clinical scenarios. There were many factors which influenced the execution of this program, including motivation level of students and faculty, time, logistics and meticulous planning. There was a significant improvement in student's performance and satisfaction. Many factors including prior planning were a major determinant for the success of this education development project.

How do we know about Earth's history? Constructing the story of Earth's geologic history by collecting and interpreting evidence based scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruthford, Steven; DeBari, Susan; Linneman, Scott; Boriss, Miguel; Chesbrough, John; Holmes, Randall; Thibault, Allison

2013-04-01

" activity at the beginning of the unit. After the review and reflection, students collect and interpret six evidence based scenarios dealing with the absolute ages of various rocks, including moon and meteorite samples, microfossil data, banded iron formations, plant and animal fossils, tectonic movement, extinction events, and human migration. The scenarios are dated and allow students to have a more complete view of geologic time. Using this more complete view, students are prompted to revisit and reorganize the timeline from the "Initial Ideas." By the end of the lesson, students will demonstrate a more complete understanding of the age of the Earth, the geologic time scale, and the role of biotic factors in Earth's systems.

A tool for the consensual analysis of decision-making scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, Geoffrey; Merzeder, Christine; Bischofberger, Iren

2018-05-01

The authors believe there is a need for novel ways of enhancing professional judgment and discretion in the contemporary healthcare environment. The objective is to provide a framework to guide a discursive analysis of an ongoing clinical scenario by a small group of healthcare professionals (4-12) to achieve consensual understanding in the decision-making necessary to resolve specific healthcare inadequacies and promote organisational learning. REPVAD is an acronym for the framework's five decision-making dimensions of reasoning, evidence, procedures, values, attitudes and defences. The design is set out in terms of well-defined definitions of the dimensions, a rationale for using REPVAD, and explications of dimensions one at a time. Furthermore, the REPVAD process of application to a scenario is set out, and a didactic scenario is given to show how REPVAD works together with a sample case. A discussion is fleshed out in four real life student cases, and a conclusion indicates strengths and weaknesses and the possibility of further development and transferability. In terms of findings, the model has been tried, tested and refined over a number of years in the development of advanced practitioners at university healthcare faculties in two European countries. Consent was obtained from the four participating students.

Effectiveness of Basic Life Support Training for Middle School Students.

Science.gov (United States)

Aloush, Sami; Tubaishat, Ahmad; ALBashtawy, Mohammed; Suliman, Mohammad; Alrimawi, Intima; Al Sabah, Ashraf; Banikhaled, Yousef

2018-01-01

Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation improves survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of a basic life support (BLS) educational course given to 110 middle school children, using a pretest posttest design. In the pretest, students were asked to demonstrate BLS on a manikin to simulate a real-life scenario. After the pretest, a BLS training course of two sessions was provided, followed by posttest on the same manikin. Students were assessed using an observational sheet based on the American Heart Association's BLS guidelines. In the pretest, students showed significant weakness in the majority of guidelines. In the posttest, they demonstrated significant improvement in their BLS skills. BLS training in the middle school was effective, considering the lack of previous skills. It is recommended that BLS education be compulsory in the school setting.

Perceptions of dental students towards learning environment in an Indian scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leena Jain

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Dental students constitute a stakeholder group that is able to provide unique information concerning the effectiveness of the dental curriculum. The purpose of this study was to determine students′ perceptions of the learning environment, intellectual climate and teacher student relationships in dental school. Methods : This study was conducted among 341 dental students of two dental college of Udaipur, Rajasthan, India. Response rate was 85%. In this study, the dental version of Medical Student Learning Environment Survey has been used. The questionnaires were divided in to 7 subscales like flexibility, student to student interaction, emotional climate, meaningful experience, organization, supportiveness, and breadth of interest. The students were divided in to two groups of preclinical and clinical for the purpose of comparison. The data were analyzed using ANOVA and t-test. Results: The results were statistically analyzed and differentiated in to preclinical and clinical phases. The preclinical and clinical students rated the student to student interaction as the most favorable whereas the lowest score was given to flexibility by both preclinical and clinical students. Preclinical students rated emotional climate as the lowest after flexibility whereas clinical students rated breadth of interest and meaningful experience as the lowest score after flexibility. Conclusion: This study emphasized the areas of improvement in dental school learning environment based on students′ perspective by making these required and much needed changes in the curriculum. Students′ satisfaction with their dental education can be increased.

Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Braun, Kimberly

1997-01-01

.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

Scenario Selection and Student Assessment Modules for CyberCIEGE

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Leng, Tiat

2003-01-01

.... In addition by tapping the CyberCIEGE event log files generated at the end of each game, we can reconstruct the game progress to support After Action Reviews (AAR) to assist the instructor and student to analyze game decisions and the student's progress. This provides a constructive follow-up to review and reinforce the concepts being taught.

What Are the Perceived Effects of Telecollaboration Compared to Other Communication-Scenarios with Peers?

Science.gov (United States)

Nissen, Elke

2016-01-01

What are the perceived effects of Telecollaboration (TC), compared to other types of communication-scenarios with peers (i.e. local peers in small groups and Erasmus students abroad)? This is the question this exploratory study tackles within a blended language learning course. The analysis of students' perceptions paints a rather contrastive…

Scenario Approach to the Development and Use of Learning Management System in Universities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martyushova Y.G.,

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The article offers a scenario approach to the design of learning management system (LMS structure. It is argued that the LMS structure and it functional components depend on the scenarios of its use in educational process which, in turn, are determined by the type of subject that is based on the main component of education content. There are three categories of the LMS users in the educational process in university: students, teachers, and administrators, and their roles differ from each other. The article provides detailed scenarios of how the LMS is used by various categories of users and describes the structure of the LMS in relation to these scenarios. On the one hand, the LMS represents a structured base of content: that is, it contains theoretical materials as well as tasks and exercises along with certain scales that reflect their difficulty. The weight of these tasks, initially determined by experts, can then be automatically corrected using the methods of mathematical statistics. On the other hand, implementing the described scenarios requires an electronic operating cover of the LMS, among the functions of which is the organization of control and self-checking, as well as providing storage and processing statistics of the LMS use. These statistics should then be automatically turned into the current rating of users which is important for knowledge evaluation and support of learning motivation in students during a semester.

Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

2016-04-01

This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2003-01-01

Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

Using Cloud Collaboration for Writing Assignments by Students with Disabilities: A Case Study Using Action Research

Science.gov (United States)

Keane, Kjrsten; Russell, Miriam

2014-01-01

Though separated by geographical distance, a student with disabilities, his advisor, and his writing coach consorted in the Cloud using Google applications to achieve a writing goal. Our scenario demonstrates how emerging technologies can bridge transactional distance and "virtually" supplant face-to-face conferencing around a college…

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Challenging demonstrations in the physics classroom

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raz, E.

2004-01-01

Full Text: We consider the role of classroom demonstrations in improving students understanding of physics lectures and suggest criteria to decide whether a given demonstration will be pedagogically useful. In the light of these considerations, we performed two series of related experiments before groups of high-school students. We shall perform one of them with active participation from the audience. We shall also show some challenging demonstrations performed in the final stages of the Israeli Physics Olympiad for high-school students

Design and preparation of scenarios for human factors studies in the HAMMLAB

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moracho, M. J.

1999-01-01

In the preparation of experiments for Human Factors studies, the scenarios play an important role. As a matter of fact, scenario effect is often demonstrated in the analysis of results. An experimental study referred to as Experiments' 97 was conducted in the Halden Man Machine LABoratory. In the design of the scenarios for this experiment, an effort was made for producing scenarios in compliance with the objectives of the study. Before the experiment simulations, scenario analysis was conducted and documented. This report presents some of the lessons learned from these activities. It also identifies main issues to be considered in the scenario characterisation and preparation. Examples of the scenarios' design document produced for the Experiments' 97 as well as examples of measure definitions for OPAS (OPerator Assessment System) and PPAS (Plant Performance System) are included in the appendixes (author) (ml)

Demonstration of a performance assessment methodology for nuclear waste isolation in basalt formations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonano, E.J.; Davis, P.A.

1988-01-01

This paper summarizes the results of the demonstration of a performance assessment methodology developed by Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for use in the analysis of high-level radioactive waste disposal in deep basalts. Seven scenarios that could affect the performance of a repository in basalts were analyzed. One of these scenarios, normal ground-water flow, was called the base-case scenario. This was used to demonstrate the modeling capabilities in the methodology necessary to assess compliance with the ground-water travel time criterion. The scenario analysis consisted of both scenario screening and consequence modeling. Preliminary analyses of scenarios considering heat released from the waste and the alteration of the hydraulic properties of the rock mass due to loads created by a glacier suggested that these effects would not be significant. The analysis of other scenarios indicated that those changing the flow field in the vicinity of the repository would have an impact on radionuclide discharges, while changes far from the repository may not be significant. The analysis of the base-case scenario was used to show the importance of matrix diffusion as a radionuclide retardation mechanism in fractured media. The demonstration of the methodology also included an overall sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters and/or processes. 15 refs., 13 figs., 2 tabs

Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene

2010-01-01

The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henrique Dias Blois

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ian G. Cullis

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

2012-01-01

Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

2001-01-01

Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

IMPROVING LEARNING PROCESS AND STUDENT RESULTS LEARNING TO TUNE-UPMOTORCYCLE USING DEMONSTRATION METHODOF CLASS XI SMA N 1 PLAYEN YEAR STUDY2013/2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haryono Haryono

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This research is to improve the learning process and results in learning a tune-up motorcycle  using the demonstrationmethod of class XI SMA 1 Playen.              This research is a classroom action research (PTK, using the demonstration method.Subyek this study were students of class XI SMA Negeri 1 Playen.Theimplementationofthisstudyusing3cycles,there is a (planning, implementation (actuating, observation (observing, and reflection (reflecting. Collecting data in this study are observations of student learning process and student learning outcomes test data pre-test, postesI, II, III and documentation as a support to the two data. Further observation data based on the observation of student learning just learning the positive process of learning student and test data were analyzed for comparison. Indicators of success in this classroom action research that student learning increases towards positive along with the use of methods of demonstration, is to see an increase from the pre-cycle to end the first cycle, the first cycle to the second cycle and the secondcyclebycycle III.             From the results of this study concluded that the method could improve the demonstration of positive student learning, from the first cycle of 30%, 50% second cycle and third cycle of 80%. Learning is also more effective with students indicated more quickly adapt as a positive activity, especially in terms of increased student asked, noting the test and work on the problems. Demonstration method can improve the learning outcomes  students of class XI SMA 1 Playen as evidenced by an increase in the average yield final test first cycle of 64.09; second cycle of 77.82 and 78.86 for the third cycle. So it proved with the increasing positive student learning canalso improve student learning outcomes.

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

Impact of team composition on student perceptions of interprofessional teamwork: A 6-year cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lairamore, Chad; Morris, Duston; Schichtl, Rachel; George-Paschal, Lorrie; Martens, Heather; Maragakis, Alexandros; Garnica, Mary; Jones, Barbara; Grantham, Myra; Bruenger, Adam

2018-03-01

Interprofessional education (IPE) provides students with opportunities to learn about the roles and responsibilities of other professions and develop communication and teamwork skills. As different health professions have recognised the importance of IPE, the number of disciplines participating in IPE events is increasing. Consequently, it is important to examine the effect group structure has on the learning environment and student knowledge acquisition during IPE events. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of group composition on student perceptions of interprofessional teamwork and collaboration when participating in a case-based IPE forum. To examine this construct, six cohorts of students were divided into two groups: Group-one (2010-2012) included students from five professions. Group-two (2013-2015) included students from 10 professions. The only other change for group-two was broadening the case scenarios to ensure a role for each profession. At the conclusion of the case-based IPE forums, both groups demonstrated a statistically significant increase in 'readiness for interprofessional learning' and 'interdisciplinary education perceptions'. However, participants in group-one (2010-2012) demonstrated a greater change in scores when compared to group-two (2013-2015). It was concluded a case-based IPE forum with students from numerous health professions participating in a discussion about broad case scenarios was moderately effective at introducing students to other health professions and increasing their knowledge of others' identities. However, a smaller grouping of professions with targeted cases was more effective at influencing student perceptions of the need for teamwork. When planning an IPE event, faculty should focus on intentional groupings of professions to reflect the social context of healthcare teams so all students can fully participate and experience shared learning.

Analysis of long-term energy scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lemming, J.; Morthorst, P.E.

1998-09-01

When addressing the role of fusion energy in the 21. century, the evaluation of possible future structures in the electricity market and the energy sector as a whole, can be a useful tool. Because fusion energy still needs demonstration, commercialized fusion energy is not likely to be a reality within the next few decades. Therefore long-term scenarios are needed describing the energy markets, which fusion energy eventually will be part of. This report performs an analysis of two of the most detailed existing long-term scenarios describing possible futures of the energy system. The aim is to clarify the frames in which the future development of the global energy demand, as well as the structure of the energy system can be expected to develop towards the year 2100. (au) 19 refs.

Presentation and demonstration at Alt-i-lab 2005

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tattersall, Colin

2005-01-01

These documents were used to accompany the Learning Design presentation and demonstration at Alt-i-lab 2005. The slides were shown during a plenary session describing the interoperability demo. The scenario was used to guide the demonstration process, and the UNFOLD handout was used to illustrate

Using Daily Horoscopes To Demonstrate Expectancy Confirmation.

Science.gov (United States)

Munro, Geoffrey D.; Munro, James E.

2000-01-01

Describes a classroom demonstration that uses daily horoscopes to show the effect that expectation can have on judgment. Addresses the preparation, procedure, and results of the demonstration, and student evaluations. States that the demonstration appears to be effective for teaching students about expectancy confirmation. (CMK)

Global energy context: future scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beretta, Gian Paolo

2006-01-01

After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

Communication products for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario: Chapter K in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Suzanne C.

2013-01-01

Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), like its predecessor the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, has a mission to increase the use of science by decision-makers of all kinds. Thus, an important part of any SAFRR scenario is development of products that enhance usability of the science. In this tsunami scenario, the focus has been on development of three kinds of products: products that augment typical outputs of scientific studies, such as reports, to make the results of the scenario more relevant and usable to nonscientists; products that distill local impacts and allow users in specific locales to identify which aspects of the broad regional study apply to their local area; and

Scenario-based teaching in undergraduate medical education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patel K

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Kunj Patel, Omar El Tokhy Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UKWe read with great interest the study by Frost et al1 which highlights the importance of scenario-based teaching (SBT of clinical communication in medical undergraduate pediatrics teaching. SBT involves students navigating a storyline based around a complex problem, running in parallel with case-based learning. We were impressed by the results of the SBT program at Cardiff University School of Medicine. As medical students currently on our pediatric rotation at Imperial College London, we have experienced at first hand the benefits of SBT. Throughout the placement, it continues to help us tackle the complexities which arise when communicating with children and their families. We have noted its particular benefit in breaking bad news to families. Without effective teaching on this particular scenario, a failure to grasp this skill could exacerbate patient and parent concerns. Much like the authors of this study highlight,1 we believe specific teaching on communication skills should be a mandatory part of medical undergraduate education at every institution. Imperial College School of Medicine has developed a similar teaching style which has been unparalleled in its benefit to us during our pediatric rotation. Although there is scant literature available specifically addressing communicating with children and parents at undergraduate level, the use of SBT throughout undergraduate medical teaching should not be underestimated. Read the original paper by Frost et al

Effects of a skill demonstration video delivered by smartphone on facilitating nursing students' skill competencies and self-confidence: A randomized controlled trial study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chuang, Yeu-Hui; Lai, Fu-Chih; Chang, Chia-Chi; Wan, Hsu-Tien

2018-07-01

The correct and appropriate performance of nursing skills by students can ensure patient safety and care quality. However, developing appropriate teaching and learning strategies to enhance nursing students' nursing skills and knowledge are challenging tasks for nursing faculty members. Nowadays, smartphones are popular mobile devices that are used on campuses by students and could be considered a potential tool to deliver learning materials to nursing students. This study aimed to examine the effects of a skill demonstration video delivered by smartphone on facilitating nursing students' nursing skill competency and confidence. A randomized controlled trial study design was used. A convenience sample of nursing students at a university was recruited. After receiving a regular nursing skills lab demonstration, pre-test data were collected from nursing students in an intervention group (n = 44) and a comparison group (n = 43). Then, students in the intervention group downloaded the skill demonstration video onto their smartphones, while the comparison group did not. Post-test data were collected at 2 weeks after the intervention. There were significant differences in students' urinary catheterization knowledge (F = 4.219, p = 0.04) and skills (F = 6.739, p = 0.013), but there was no difference in students' confidence level (F = 2.201, p = 0.142) between the two groups after the intervention. Furthermore, the average score of the satisfaction level regarding the intervention was 4.46 (SD = 0.43) on a scale of 1-5. This study found that delivering learning materials through smartphones to nursing students is suitable. Although there was no significant difference in students' self-confidence level, students' knowledge and skills were improved by the intervention. Smartphones can serve as a supplemental tool for learning nursing skills. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Food scenarios 2025

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Developing awareness of sustainability in nursing and midwifery using a scenario-based approach: Evidence from a pre and post educational intervention study.

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Janet; Grose, Jane; Bradbury, Martyn; Kelsey, Janet

2017-07-01

The delivery of healthcare has an impact on the environment and contributes to climate change. As a consequence, the way in which nurses and midwives use and dispose of natural resources in clinical practice, and the subsequent impact on the environment, should be integral component of nursing and midwifery education. Opportunities need to be found to embed such issues into nursing curricula; thus bringing sustainability issues 'closer to home' and making them more relevant for clinical practice. The study was designed to measure the impact of a sustainability-focussed, scenario-based learning educational intervention on the attitudes and knowledge of student nurses and midwives. Pre test/Post test intervention study using scenario-based learning as the educational intervention. The Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey (SANS_2) was used as the outcome measure. Clinical skills session in a UK University School of Nursing and Midwifery. 676 second year undergraduate nursing and midwifery students. The 7-point scale SANS survey was completed before and after the teaching session; standard non-parametric analysis compared pre and post intervention scores. Changes were observed in attitude towards climate change and sustainability and to the inclusion of these topics within the nursing curricula (p=0.000). Participants demonstrated greater knowledge of natural resource use and the cost of waste disposal following the session (p=0.000). Participants also reported that sessions were realistic, and levels of agreement with statements supporting the value of the session and the interactive nature of delivery were higher following the session. Using a scenario-based learning approach with nursing and midwifery students can change attitudes and knowledge towards sustainability and climate change. Embedding this approach in the context of clinical skills provides a novel and engaging approach that is both educationally sound and clinically relevant. Copyright © 2017

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

Demonstration of Coupled Multievent Scenario at a Subject Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coleman, Justin Leigh; Prescott, Steven Ralph; Smith, Curtis; Sampath, Ram

2015-01-01

This report discusses how to perform a coupled, seismic and flooding, multievent risk-informed analysis. Presented in the following sections are the need for multievent risk-informed analysis, the tools needed to perform the analysis, and an example of solving a demonstration problem.

USING E-COLLABORATION TO IMPROVE MANAGEMENT EDUCATION: THREE SCENARIOS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie-Noëlle Bessagnet

2006-11-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the potential impact of collaborative technologies in improving management education. The first goal is to expose students to tools and practices that not only assist them with their current studies, but also serve to reinforce individual and team competencies that can facilitate their entry into the workforce. In their positions as future managers they will be expected to not only be familiar with common business practices but also to understand the implications of information technology for business; in this case with emphasis on tools and techniques that can help businesses flourish in the networked economy. With an ever-increasing recognition that e-learning tools are important for (re-training employees, these three scenarios offer examples of how business schools might expand the boundaries of e-collaboration to help their students. These experiments have been conducted in management programs. In the first two scenarios, students use collaborative platforms in some of their daily work. The third experiment is based on a student-centred design of a learning portal. Our experience reinforces a certain number of hypotheses influencing the impact of collaborative technologies in management education. To begin with, information systems are often flawed mirrors of the managerial system that they are designed to represent. Secondly, the potential value of collaborative technologies is strongly influenced by organizational contexts, both in and between the university and the business community. Thirdly, the effectiveness of collaborative technologies depends to a large degree upon the depth and coherence of learning objectives fixed for learning and work places. Finally, improving the effectiveness of collaborative technologies requires aligning the design of learning environments with the corporate cultures and visions we are trying to reproduce.

Virginia Demonstration Project Encouraging Middle School Students in Pursuing STEM Careers

Science.gov (United States)

Bachman, Jane T.; Kota, Dena H.; Kota, Aaron J.

2011-01-01

Encouraging students at all grade levels to consider pursuing a career in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) fields i s a national focus. In 2005, the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division (NSWCDD), a Department of Defense laboratory located in Da hlgren, Virginia, began work on the Virginia Demonstration Project (VDP) with the goal of increasing more student interest in STEM educatio n and pursuing STEM careers. This goal continues as the program enters its sixth year. This project has been successful through the partici pation of NSWCDD's scientists and engineers who are trained as mentor s to work in local middle school classrooms throughout the school year, As an extension of the in-class activities, several STEM summer aca demies have been conducted at NSWCDD, These academies are supported by the Navy through the VDP and the STEM Learning Module Project. These projects are part of more extensive outreach efforts offered by the National Defense Education Program (NDEP), sponsored by the Director, Defense Research and Engineering. The focus of this paper is on the types of activities conducted at the summer academy, an overview of the academy planning process, and recommendations to help support a nati onal plan of integrating modeling and simulation-based engineering and science into all grade levels. based upon the lessons learned

Fixed versus variable practice for teaching medical students the management of pediatric asthma exacerbations using simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Drummond, David; Truchot, Jennifer; Fabbro, Eleonora; Ceccaldi, Pierre-François; Plaisance, Patrick; Tesnière, Antoine; Hadchouel, Alice

2018-02-01

Simulation-based trainings represent an interesting approach to teach medical students the management of pediatric asthma exacerbations (PAEs). In this study, we compared two pedagogical approaches, training students once on three different scenarios of PAEs versus training students three times on the same scenario of PAE. Eighty-five third-year medical students, novice learners for the management of PAEs, were randomized and trained. Students were assessed twice, 1 week and 4 months after the training, on a scenario of PAE new to both groups and on scenarios used during the training. The main outcome was the performance score on the new scenario of PAE at 1 week, assessed on a checklist custom-designed for the study. All students progressed rapidly and acquired excellent skills. One week after the training, there was no difference between the two groups on all the scenarios tested, including the new scenario of PAE (median performance score (IQR) of 8.3 (7.4-10.0) in the variation group versus 8.0 (6.0-10.0) in the repetition group (p = 0.16)). Four months later, the performance of the two groups remained similar. Varying practice with different scenarios was equivalent to repetitive practice on the same scenario for novice learners, with both methods leading to transfer and long-term retention of the skills acquired during the training. What is known: • Simulation-based trainings represent an interesting approach to teach medical students the management of pediatric asthma exacerbations. • It is unclear whether students would benefit more from repetitive practice on the same scenario of asthma exacerbation or from practice on different scenarios in terms of transfer of skills. What is new: • An individual 30-min training on the management of pediatric asthma exacerbations using simulation allows transfer and long-term retention of the skills acquired. • Varying practice with different scenarios is equivalent to repetitive practice on the same

A randomized comparison of video demonstration versus hands-on training of medical students for vacuum delivery using Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills (OSATS).

Science.gov (United States)

Hilal, Ziad; Kumpernatz, Anne K; Rezniczek, Günther A; Cetin, Cem; Tempfer-Bentz, Eva-Katrin; Tempfer, Clemens B

2017-03-01

To compare medical students' skills for vaginal operative delivery by vacuum extraction (VE) after hands-on training versus video demonstration. We randomized medical students to an expert demonstration (group 1) or a hands-on (group 2) training using a standardized VE algorithm on a pelvic training model. Students were tested with a 40-item Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills (OSATS) scoring system after training and 4 days later. OSATS scores were the primary outcome. Performance time, self-assessment, confidence, and global rating scale were secondary outcomes. We assessed the constructive validity of OSATS in this VE model comparing metric scores of experts and students. In all, 137 students were randomized. OSATS scores were higher in group 2 (n = 63) compared with group 1 (n = 74) (32.89 ± 6.39 vs 27.51 ± 10.27, respectively; P training is superior to video demonstration for teaching VE on a pelvic model.

Magnetic levitation on a type-I superconductor as a practical demonstration experiment for students

OpenAIRE

Osorio, M. R.; Lahera, D. E.; Suderow, H.

2012-01-01

We describe and discuss an experimental set-up which allows undergraduate and graduate students to view and study magnetic levitation on a type-I superconductor. The demonstration can be repeated many times using one readily available 25 liter liquid helium dewar. We study the equilibrium position of a magnet that levitates over a lead bowl immersed in a liquid hand-held helium cryostat. We combine the measurement of the position of the magnet with simple analytical calculations. This provide...

Teaching childbirth with high-fidelity simulation. Is it better observing the scenario during the briefing session?

Science.gov (United States)

Cuerva, Marcos J; Piñel, Carlos S; Martin, Lourdes; Espinosa, Jose A; Corral, Octavio J; Mendoza, Nicolás

2018-02-12

The design of optimal courses for obstetric undergraduate teaching is a relevant question. This study evaluates two different designs of simulator-based learning activity on childbirth with regard to respect to the patient, obstetric manoeuvres, interpretation of cardiotocography tracings (CTG) and infection prevention. This randomised experimental study which differs in the content of their briefing sessions consisted of two groups of undergraduate students, who performed two simulator-based learning activities on childbirth. The first briefing session included the observations of a properly performed scenario according to Spanish clinical practice guidelines on care in normal childbirth by the teachers whereas the second group did not include the observations of a properly performed scenario, and the students observed it only after the simulation process. The group that observed a properly performed scenario after the simulation obtained worse grades during the simulation, but better grades during the debriefing and evaluation. Simulator use in childbirth may be more fruitful when the medical students observe correct performance at the completion of the scenario compared to that at the start of the scenario. Impact statement What is already known on this subject? There is a scarcity of literature about the design of optimal high-fidelity simulation training in childbirth. It is known that preparing simulator-based learning activities is a complex process. Simulator-based learning includes the following steps: briefing, simulation, debriefing and evaluation. The most important part of high-fidelity simulations is the debriefing. A good briefing and simulation are of high relevance in order to have a fruitful debriefing session. What do the results of this study add? Our study describes a full simulator-based learning activity on childbirth that can be reproduced in similar facilities. The findings of this study add that high-fidelity simulation training in

Strengthening student communication through pediatric simulated patient encounters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryan Whitt

2014-08-01

Full Text Available As medical students enter the role of physician, clinical outcomes not only rely on their mastery of clinical knowledge, but also on the effectiveness in which they can communicate with patients and family members. While students typically have numerous opportunities to practice clinical communication with adult patients, such practice in pediatric settings is limited. This study examines if simulated patient (SP encounters strengthen third-year medical students’ communication skills during the pediatrics clerkship. During 2011-2013, three SP encounters (comprising 3 pediatric scenarios were incorporated into a pediatrics clerkship at one United States medical school to give students a safe venue to practice advanced communication with observation and direct feedback. Third-year medical students engaged in the scenarios and received both written and oral feedback from an evaluator observing the encounter. With IRB approval, students’ self-perceived confidence and abilities at performing the advanced communication skills were measured using an eightitem, Likert scale questionnaire administered pre and post the SP encounter. Pre- and post-questionnaires (n = 215; response rate, 96% analyzed using a Wilcoxon-matched pairs signed-rank test demonstrated statistically significant increases in students’ perception of their confidence and abilities regarding their performance (P < 0.05; Bonferroni correction, P < 0.006. There was an increases in student confidence and self-perceived ability in: first, communicating with children and family members of young patients; second, managing confrontational situations involving parents; third, performing a thorough psychosocial history with an adolescent; and fourth, using Evidence Based Medicine to motivate parents.

Global evaluation of nuclear infrastructure utilization scenarios (GENIUS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

unzik-Gougar, Mary Lou; Juchau, Christopher A.; Pasamehmetoglu, Kemal; Wilson, Paul P.H.; Oliver, Kyle M.; Turinsky, Paul J.; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Hays, Ross; Stover, Tracy E.

2007-01-01

A new and unique fuel cycle systems code has been developed. Need for this analysis tool was established via methodical development of technical functions and requirements followed by an evaluation of existing fuel cycle codes. As demonstrated by analysis of GNEP-type scenarios, the GENIUS code discretely tracks nuclear material from beginning to end of the fuel cycle and among any number of independent regions. Users can define scenarios starting with any/all existing reactors and fuel cycle facilities or with an ideal futuristic arrangement. Development and preliminary application of GENIUS capabilities in uncertainty analysis/propagation and multi-parameter optimization have also been accomplished. (authors)

Advising students in technical projects - recognizing problem scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bærentzen, Jacob Andreas; Singh, Karan

2014-01-01

In this paper, we consider the advisor’s role during the technical work and the thesis preparation for a student in the final phase of a course of study in an engineering education. We initially claim that there is a marked difference between the learning that takes place in regular course work...

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinson, P.; Girard, R.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Presentation of the desirable properties of wind power generation scenarios. ► Description of various evaluation frameworks (univariate, multivariate, diagnostic). ► Highlighting of the properties of current approaches to scenario generation. ► Guidelines for future evaluation/benchmark exercises. -- Abstract: Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multistage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benefits from their use in decision-making. So far however, their verification is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verification tools, as well as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verification are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools.

Multi-modal Virtual Scenario Enhances Neurofeedback Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Avihay Cohen

2016-08-01

produced a higher effect size. In addition, neurofeedback via the animated scenario showed better sustainability, as indicated by a no-feedback trial conducted in session 2 and better transferability to a new unfamiliar interface. Lastly, participants reported that the animated scenario was more engaging and more motivating than the thermometer. Together, these results demonstrate the promising potential of integrating realistic virtual environments in neurofeedback to enhance learning and improve user's experience.

Integrative Scenario Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joerg A. Priess

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

A Semantic Web-Based Authoring Tool to Facilitate the Planning of Collaborative Learning Scenarios Compliant with Learning Theories

Science.gov (United States)

Isotani, Seiji; Mizoguchi, Riichiro; Isotani, Sadao; Capeli, Olimpio M.; Isotani, Naoko; de Albuquerque, Antonio R. P. L.; Bittencourt, Ig. I.; Jaques, Patricia

2013-01-01

When the goal of group activities is to support long-term learning, the task of designing well-thought-out collaborative learning (CL) scenarios is an important key to success. To help students adequately acquire and develop their knowledge and skills, a teacher can plan a scenario that increases the probability for learning to occur. Such a…

Cosmogonic scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

1985-05-01

A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W

1998-03-01

Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10{sup 4} years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W.

1998-03-01

Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10 4 years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

Medical students can learn the basic application, analytic, evaluative, and psychomotor skills of critical care medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, P L; Jacob, H; Thomas, E A; Harwell, M; Willenkin, R L; Pinsky, M R

2000-02-01

To determine whether fourth-year medical students can learn the basic analytic, evaluative, and psychomotor skills needed to initially manage a critically ill patient. Student learning was evaluated using a performance examination, the objective structured clinical examination (OSCE). Students were randomly assigned to one of two clinical scenarios before the elective. After the elective, students completed the other scenario, using a crossover design. Five surgical intensive care units in a tertiary care university teaching hospital. Forty fourth-year medical students enrolled in the critical care medicine (CCM) elective. All students evaluated a live "simulated critically ill" patient, requested physiologic data from a nurse, ordered laboratory tests, received data in real time, and intervened as they deemed appropriate. Student performance of specific behavioral objectives was evaluated at five stations. They were expected to a) assess airway, breathing, and circulation in appropriate sequence; b) prepare a manikin for intubation, obtain an acceptable airway on the manikin, demonstrate bag-mouth ventilation, and perform acceptable laryngoscopy and intubation; c) provide appropriate mechanical ventilator settings; d) manage hypotension; and e) request and interpret pulmonary artery data and initiate appropriate therapy. OSCEs were videotaped and reviewed by two faculty members masked to time of examination. A checklist of key behaviors was used to evaluate performance. The primary outcome measure was the difference in examination score before and after the rotation. Secondary outcomes included the difference in scores at each rotation. The mean preelective score was 57.0%+/-8.3% compared with 85.9%+/-7.4% (ppsychomotor skills necessary to initially manage critically ill patients. After an appropriate 1-month CCM elective, students' thinking and application skills required to initially manage critically ill patients improved markedly, as demonstrated by an OSCE

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Development scenario for laser fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

1976-01-01

This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

Development of burning plasma and advanced scenarios in the DIII-D tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luce, T.C.

2005-01-01

Significant progress in the development of burning plasma scenarios, steady-state scenarios at high fusion performance, and basic tokamak physics has been made by the DIII-D Team. Discharges similar to the ITER baseline scenario have demonstrated normalized fusion performance nearly 50% higher than required for Q = 10 in ITER, under stationary conditions. Discharges that extrapolate to Q ∼ 10 for longer than one hour in ITER at reduced current have also been demonstrated in DIII-D under stationary conditions. Proof of high fusion performance with full noninductive operation has been obtained. Underlying this work are studies validating approaches to confinement extrapolation, disruption avoidance and mitigation, tritium retention, ELM avoidance, and operation above the no-wall pressure limit. In addition, the unique capabilities of the DIII-D facility have advanced studies of the sawtooth instability with unprecedented time and space resolution, threshold behavior in the electron heat transport, and rotation in plasmas in the absence of external torque. (author)

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2018-03-01

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

Professional training in physiotherapy: barriers to the diversification of practical learning scenarios and for teaching-service integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Paula Maihack Gauer

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: Professional training in health, at present, aims to develop competencies and skills for a performance according the principles of the Unified Health System (SUS, in Portuguese. In this sense, the Ministries of Health and Education have set up devices for training reorientation that prioritize teaching-service integration and diversification of learning scenarios. Objective: To describe barriers to the diversification of practical learning scenarios and for teaching-service integration in a physiotherapy course from the perspective of teachers and students. Methods: This is a qualitative research developed according to the case study method, with the participation of 16 students and 11 teachers-physiotherapists. During the data collection three focus groups were established, two with students and one with professors, besides individual interviews with both the course coordinator and the pedagogical articulator of the National Program for the Reorientation of Professional Health Training of the assessed course. Data were analyzed through thematic content analysis. Results: Among the identified barriers there are students’ low participation in public health services; saturation of public health services for students to carry out practical activities; low number of physiotherapists in Primary Care; indirect relationship of Clinical School with SUS. Conclusion: In order to improve the teaching-service interaction and to diversify the learning scenarios it is necessary to prioritize an integrated planning of actions to overcome identified barriers, including the participation of both the university managers and health services.

Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Girard, R.

2012-01-01

Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multi-stage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benets from...... their use in decision-making. So far however, their verication is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verication tools, as well...... as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verication are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools....

Integrating Simulation Scenarios and Clinical Practices Guided by Concepts of Translational Medicine

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jing; Huang, Si-min; Li, Ze-jian; Feng, Lie; Lu, Chun-ting

2018-01-01

Purpose: To develop a novel method for closely and effectively integrating simulation scenarios and clinical practices to improve clinical skills training in the concepts of translational medicine. Methods: Forty-two and 38 third-year medical students in the classes of 2010 and 2009 at Jinan University were selected as an observation group and a…

Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

2008-01-01

This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

Using Standardized Patients to Teach Interprofessional Competencies to Dental Students.

Science.gov (United States)

Anders, Patrick L; Scherer, Yvonne Krall; Hatton, Michael; Antonson, Donald; Austin-Ketch, Tammy; Campbell-Heider, Nancy

2016-01-01

The aims of this study were to develop, implement, and evaluate a novel interprofessional standardized patient exercise (ISPE) with oral-systemic and interprofessional collaborative practice (IPCP) components. Dental students and doctor of nursing practice (DNP) students at one U.S. university participated in the simulation, which was primarily designed to test their teamwork skills. In spring 2014, DNP students worked in the dental clinics with dental students under the supervision of nursing and dental faculty members. To test the teamwork outcomes for both groups of students, a standardized patient (SP) scenario was designed to include multiple chronic medical diagnoses and an oral-systemic component. The exercise was filmed for later review. Outcomes measures included SP and student self-evaluations and faculty evaluation of student documentation. The primary outcome of interest from a dental standpoint was faculty evaluation of IPCP competencies derived from the Core Competencies of Interprofessional Collaborative Practice and were deemed to be observable by faculty when viewing the videotaped scenario. Eight teams of students participated with an SP trained in the scenario. Each team consisted of a DNP student, a fourth-year dental student, and a second-year dental student. All eligible students in the DNP class (n=20) and eight students from each dental class (approximately 110 each) participated. The results showed that the teams scored highest on the role/responsibilities subscale, indicating students were respectful of each other's roles and expertise and effectively engaged each other to develop strategies to meet the patient's needs. Scores on the three other subscales (values/ethics, interprofessional communication, and teams/teamwork) were also high. These findings appeared to support IPCP as a method to foster knowledge and respect for other roles and responsibilities, improve appreciation of teamwork, and encourage better communication among health

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden)

2017-03-15

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arushanyan, Yevgeniya; Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa

2017-01-01

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

Scenario-informed multiple criteria analysis for prioritizing investments in electricity capacity expansion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, Lauro J.; Lambert, James H.; Karvetski, Christopher W.

2011-01-01

Planning the expansion and energy security of electricity capacity for a national electricity utility is a complex task in almost any economy. Planning is usually an iterative activity and can involve the use of large scale planning optimization systems accompanied by assessment of uncertain scenarios emerging from economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory developments. This paper applies a multiple criteria decision analysis to prioritize investment portfolios in capacity expansion and energy security while principally studying the robustness of the prioritization to multiple uncertain and emergent scenarios. The scenarios are identified through interaction with decision makers and stakeholders. The approach finds which scenarios most affect the prioritization of the portfolios and which portfolios have the greatest upside and downside potential across scenarios. The approach fosters innovation in the use of robust and efficient technologies, renewable energy sources, and cleaner energy fuels. A demonstration is provided for assessing the performance of technology portfolios constructed from investments in nine electricity generation technologies in Mexico.

Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

2013-09-17

Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

Game theory in communication networks cooperative resolution of interactive networking scenarios

CERN Document Server

Antoniou, Josephina

2012-01-01

A mathematical tool for scientists and researchers who work with computer and communication networks, Game Theory in Communication Networks: Cooperative Resolution of Interactive Networking Scenarios addresses the question of how to promote cooperative behavior in interactive situations between heterogeneous entities in communication networking scenarios. It explores network design and management from a theoretical perspective, using game theory and graph theory to analyze strategic situations and demonstrate profitable behaviors of the cooperative entities. The book promotes the use of Game T

Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2009-01-01

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

Use of Future Scenarios as a Pedagogical Approach for Science Teacher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Paige, Kathryn; Lloyd, David

2016-04-01

Futures studies is usually a transdisciplinary study and as such embraces the physical world of the sciences and system sciences and the subjective world of individuals and cultures, as well as the time dimension—past, present and futures. Science education, where student interests, opportunities and challenges often manifest themselves, can provide a suitable entry point for futures work. In this paper, we describe how we have used futures themes, concepts and techniques both implicitly and explicitly in our undergraduate middle school teacher education courses and, in particular, science curriculum and general studies courses. Taking a critical orientation to the past and the present in these courses enables the future to be more than a mere reproduction of the status quo and opens up a range of possible futures in the areas of current interest. For example, having studied middle school teaching and learning in mathematics and science, students explore the past, present and possible future of a natural part of a university campus. In a general studies course on the science of the Earth's atmosphere, students construct a normative futures scenario on living in a changing climate. One way to gain insight into an uncertain future is to construct scenarios. This technique has been used since the 1970s to bring issues of environment and development—areas with strong science content—to the attention of both scientists and policymakers.

Are Nursing Students Appropriate Partners for the Interdisciplinary Training of Surgery Residents?

Science.gov (United States)

Stefanidis, Dimitrios; Ingram, Katherine M; Williams, Kristy H; Bencken, Crystal L; Swiderski, Dawn

2015-01-01

Interdisciplinary team training in a simulation center recreates clinical team interactions and holds promise in improving teamwork of clinicians by breaking down educational silos. The objective of our study was to assess the appropriateness of interdisciplinary training with general surgery residents and nursing students. Over 2 consecutive academic years (2012-2013 and 2013-2014), general surgery residents participated in interdisciplinary team-training simulation-based sessions with senior nursing students. Scenario objectives included demonstration of appropriate teamwork and communication, and clinical decision making; sessions incorporated interdisciplinary debriefing of the scenarios. Participants were asked to assess their team-training experience and the appropriateness of their team-training partner. Responses were compared. A total of 16 team-training sessions were conducted during the study period. Overall, 12 surgery residents (67%) and 44 nursing students (63%) who had participated in at least 1 session responded to the survey. Although both residents and nursing students indicated that the knowledge and team skills acquired during these sessions were useful to them in clinical practice (73% vs 86%, respectively; p = not significant), residents rated their educational value lower (3.3 vs 4.3 on a 5-point scale, respectively; p training partners whereas 100% residents preferred practicing nurses and 0% with nursing students owing to their limited clinical experience. Interdisciplinary team training and debriefing of surgery residents with nursing students is feasible and highly valued by nursing students. Nevertheless, our experience indicates that residents do not prefer nursing students as team-training partners owing to their limited clinical experience and would rather train with experienced nurses. Copyright © 2015 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Key drivers and economic consequences of high-end climate scenarios: uncertainties and risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Drews, Martin

2015-01-01

The consequences of high-end climate scenarios and the risks of extreme events involve a number of critical assumptions and methodological challenges related to key uncertainties in climate scenarios and modelling, impact analysis, and economics. A methodological framework for integrated analysis...... of extreme events increase beyond scaling, and in combination with economic assumptions we find a very wide range of risk estimates for urban precipitation events. A sensitivity analysis addresses 32 combinations of climate scenarios, damage cost curve approaches, and economic assumptions, including risk...... aversion and equity represented by discount rates. Major impacts of alternative assumptions are investigated. As a result, this study demonstrates that in terms of decision making the actual expectations concerning future climate scenarios and the economic assumptions applied are very important...

Structured student-generated videos for first-year students at a dental school in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Omar, Hanan; Khan, Saad A; Toh, Chooi G

2013-05-01

Student-generated videos provide an authentic learning experience for students, enhance motivation and engagement, improve communication skills, and improve collaborative learning skills. This article describes the development and implementation of a student-generated video activity as part of a knowledge, observation, simulation, and experience (KOSE) program at the School of Dentistry, International Medical University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. It also reports the students' perceptions of an activity that introduced first-year dental students (n=44) to clinical scenarios involving patients and dental team aiming to improve professional behavior and communication skills. The learning activity was divided into three phases: preparatory phase, video production phase, and video-watching. Students were organized into five groups and were instructed to generate videos addressing given clinical scenarios. Following the activity, students' perceptions were assessed with a questionnaire. The results showed that 86 percent and 88 percent, respectively, of the students agreed that preparation of the activity enhanced their understanding of the role of dentists in provision of health care and the role of enhanced teamwork. In addition, 86 percent and 75 percent, respectively, agreed that the activity improved their communication and project management skills. Overall, the dental students perceived that the student-generated video activity was a positive experience and enabled them to play the major role in driving their learning process.

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

Time parallelization of advanced operation scenario simulations of ITER plasma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samaddar, D; Casper, T A; Kim, S H; Houlberg, W A; Berry, L A; Elwasif, W R; Batchelor, D

2013-01-01

This work demonstrates that simulations of advanced burning plasma operation scenarios can be successfully parallelized in time using the parareal algorithm. CORSICA -an advanced operation scenario code for tokamak plasmas is used as a test case. This is a unique application since the parareal algorithm has so far been applied to relatively much simpler systems except for the case of turbulence. In the present application, a computational gain of an order of magnitude has been achieved which is extremely promising. A successful implementation of the Parareal algorithm to codes like CORSICA ushers in the possibility of time efficient simulations of ITER plasmas.

Sugeno integral ranking of release scenarios in a low and intermediate waste repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, S. Ho; Kim, Tae Woon; Ha, Jae Joo

2004-01-01

In the present study, a multi criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem of ranking of important radionuclide release scenarios in a low and intermediate radioactive waste repository is to treat on the basis of λ-fuzzy measures and Sugeno integral. Ranking of important scenarios can lead to the provision of more effective safety measure in a design stage of the repository. The ranking is determined by a relative degree of appropriateness of scenario alternatives. To demonstrate a validation of the proposed approach to ranking of release scenarios, results of the previous AHP study are used and compared with them of the present SIAHP approach. Since the AHP approach uses importance weight based on additive probability measures, the interaction among criteria is ignored. The comparison of scenarios ranking obtained from these two approaches enables us to figure out the effect of different models for interaction among criteria

Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

Scenario? Guilty!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kyng, Morten

1992-01-01

Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

Impact of Enquiry Based Learning (EBL) on student midwife praxis.

Science.gov (United States)

Byrne, Anita; McNeill, Jennifer; Rogers, Katherine; Porter, Sam

2018-03-01

Midwifery training in Ireland moved to Higher Education in 2006. This shift established a physical and educational separation of theory and practice. The adoption of Enquiry Based Learning (EBL) by one Irish midwifery education institution attempted to address this division. Enquiry Based Learning (EBL) has the potential to develop student reflexivity and evidence assimilation across the career-span and may therefore enhance student praxis. EBL has been championed as an example of an educational model that supports praxis, helping to create competent practitioners through the use of authentic learning scenarios that address the theory practice divide. The current research study represents the first formal evaluation of EBL in undergraduate midwifery education in the South of Ireland. The study was a mixed-methods design that utilised focus groups, interviews and survey to ascertain the opinions of first exposure to EBL amongst a cohort of first year student midwives. Findings demonstrate the value of EBL in enhancing student midwife praxis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

2012-01-01

Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

Mars mission program for primary students: Building student and teacher skills in science, technology, engineering and mathematics

Science.gov (United States)

Mathers, Naomi; Pakakis, Michael; Christie, Ian

2011-09-01

The Victorian Space Science Education Centre (VSSEC) scenario-based programs, including the Mission to Mars and Mission to the Orbiting Space Laboratory, utilize methodologies such as hands-on applications, immersive learning, integrated technologies, critical thinking and mentoring. The use of a scenario provides a real-life context and purpose to what students might otherwise consider disjointed information. These programs engage students in the areas of maths and science, and highlight potential career paths in science and engineering. The introduction of a scenario-based program for primary students engages students in maths and science at a younger age, addressing the issues of basic numeracy and science literacy, thus laying the foundation for stronger senior science initiatives. Primary students absorb more information within the context of the scenario, and presenting information they can see, hear, touch and smell creates a memorable learning and sensory experience. The mission also supports development of teacher skills in the delivery of hands-on science and helps build their confidence to teach science. The Primary Mission to the Mars Base gives primary school students access to an environment and equipment not available in schools. Students wear flight suits for the duration of the program to immerse them in the experience of being an astronaut. Astronauts work in the VSSEC Space Laboratory, which is transformed into a Mars base for the primary program, to conduct experiments in areas such as robotics, human physiology, microbiology, nanotechnology and environmental science. Specialist mission control software has been developed by La Trobe University Centre for Games Technology to provide age appropriate Information and Communication Technology (ICT) based problem solving and support the concept of a mission. Students in Mission Control observe the astronauts working in the space laboratory and talk to them via the AV system. This interactive

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant compliance certification application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

GALSON, D.A.; SWIFT, PETER N.; ANDERSON, D. RICHARD; BENNETT, D.G.

1998-01-01

Demonstrating compliance with the applicable regulations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the disposal system. Scenario development is one starting point of this assessment, and generates inquiry about the present state and future evolution of the disposal system. Scenario development consists of four tasks: (1) identifying and classifying features, events and processes (FEPs), (2) screening FEPs according to well-defined criteria, (3) forming scenarios (combinations of FEPs) in the context of regulatory performance criteria and (4) specifying of scenarios for consequence analysis. The development and screening of a comprehensive FEP list provides assurance that the identification of significant processes and events is complete, that potential interactions between FEPs are not overlooked, and that responses to possible questions are available and well documented. Two basic scenarios have been identified for the WIPP: undisturbed performance (UP) and disturbed performance (DP). The UP scenario is used to evaluate compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Individual Dose (40 CFR Section 191-15) and Groundwater Protection (40 CFR Section 191-24) standards and accounts for all natural-, waste- and repository-induced FEPs that survive the screening process. The DP scenario is required for assessment calculations for the EPA's cumulative release standard (Containment Requirements, 40 CFR Section 191-13) and accounts for disruptive future human events, which have an uncertain probability of occurrence, in addition to the UP FEPs

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Retèl Valesca P

2012-08-01

-uncertainty by means of scenario drafting into a decision model may reveal unanticipated developments and can demonstrate a range of possible cost-effectiveness outcomes. The effect of scenarios give additional information on the speed with cost effectiveness might be reached and thus provide a more realistic picture for policy makers, opinion leaders and manufacturers.

UTM Data Working Group Demonstration 1: Final Report

Science.gov (United States)

Rios, Joseph L.; Mulfinger, Daniel G.; Smith, Irene S.; Venkatesan, Priya; Smith, David R.; Baskaran, Vijayakumar; Wang, Leo

2017-01-01

This document summarizes activities defining and executing the first demonstration of the NASA-FAA Research Transition Team (RTT) Data Exchange and Information Architecture (DEIA) working group (DWG). The demonstration focused on testing the interactions between two key components in the future UAS Traffic Management (UTM) System through a collaborative and distributed simulation of key scenarios. The summary incorporates written feedback from each of the participants in the demonstration. In addition to reporting the activities, this report also provides some insight into future steps of this working group.

Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael H. Ruge

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models. While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics models (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model, the two thechniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens – proprietary prototype Computer – Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis. Keywords: Health care, telecommucations, qualitative model, sensitivity analysis, system dynamics.

[Teaching non-technical skills for critical incidents: Crisis resource management training for medical students].

Science.gov (United States)

Krüger, A; Gillmann, B; Hardt, C; Döring, R; Beckers, S K; Rossaint, R

2009-06-01

Physicians have to demonstrate non-technical skills, such as communication and team leading skills, while coping with critical incidents. These skills are not taught during medical education. A crisis resource management (CRM) training was established for 4th to 6th year medical students using a full-scale simulator mannikin (Emergency Care Simulator, ECS, METI). The learning objectives of the course were defined according to the key points of Gaba's CRM concept. The training consisted of theoretical and practical parts (3 simulation scenarios with debriefing). Students' self-assessment before and after the training provided the data for evaluation of the training outcome. A total of 65 students took part in the training. The course was well received in terms of overall course quality, debriefings and didactic presentation, the mean overall mark being 1.4 (1: best, 6: worst). After the course students felt significantly more confident when facing incidents in clinical practice. The main learning objectives were achieved. The effectiveness of applying the widely used ECS full-scale simulator in interdisciplinary teaching has been demonstrated. The training exposes students to crisis resource management issues and motivates them to develop non-technical skills.

SysML Model of the Pick and Place Unit for Papyrus UML: Scenario Sc4b

OpenAIRE

Vogel-Heuser, Birgit; Folmer, Jens; Legat, Christoph

2014-01-01

The Pick and Place Unit (PPU) is a bench-scale lab demonstrator which is open to the research community to investigate a variety of different topics. To conduct research on the evolution of production automation systems, a variety of different manifestations of the PPU (referred to as scenarios) were developed. A documentation of the PPU and its scenarios is publicly available at www.ppu-demonstrator.org. In this zipped file, a SysML model consisting of state charts and block definition diagr...

Evaluation of finite element codes for demonstrating the performance of radioactive material packages in hypothetical accident drop scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tso, C.F.; Hueggenberg, R.

2004-01-01

Drop testing and analysis are the two methods for demonstrating the performance of packages in hypothetical drop accident scenarios. The exact purpose of the tests and the analyses, and the relative prominence of the two in the license application, may depend on the Competent Authority and will vary between countries. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is a powerful analysis tool. A reliable finite element (FE) code when used correctly and appropriately, will allow a package's behaviour to be simulated reliably. With improvements in computing power, and in sophistication and reliability of FE codes, it is likely that FEM calculations will increasingly be used as evidence of drop test performance when seeking Competent Authority approval. What is lacking at the moment, however, is a standardised method of assessing a FE code in order to determine whether it is sufficiently reliable or pessimistic. To this end, the project Evaluation of Codes for Analysing the Drop Test Performance of Radioactive Material Transport Containers, funded by the European Commission Directorate-General XVII (now Directorate-General for Energy and Transport) and jointly performed by Arup and Gesellschaft fuer Nuklear-Behaelter mbH, was carried out in 1998. The work consisted of three components: Survey of existing finite element software, with a view to finding codes that may be capable of analysing drop test performance of radioactive material packages, and to produce an inventory of them. Develop a set of benchmark problems to evaluate software used for analysing the drop test performance of packages. Evaluate the finite element codes by testing them against the benchmarks This paper presents a summary of this work

Evaluation of finite element codes for demonstrating the performance of radioactive material packages in hypothetical accident drop scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tso, C.F. [Arup (United Kingdom); Hueggenberg, R. [Gesellschaft fuer Nuklear-Behaelter mbH (Germany)

2004-07-01

Drop testing and analysis are the two methods for demonstrating the performance of packages in hypothetical drop accident scenarios. The exact purpose of the tests and the analyses, and the relative prominence of the two in the license application, may depend on the Competent Authority and will vary between countries. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is a powerful analysis tool. A reliable finite element (FE) code when used correctly and appropriately, will allow a package's behaviour to be simulated reliably. With improvements in computing power, and in sophistication and reliability of FE codes, it is likely that FEM calculations will increasingly be used as evidence of drop test performance when seeking Competent Authority approval. What is lacking at the moment, however, is a standardised method of assessing a FE code in order to determine whether it is sufficiently reliable or pessimistic. To this end, the project Evaluation of Codes for Analysing the Drop Test Performance of Radioactive Material Transport Containers, funded by the European Commission Directorate-General XVII (now Directorate-General for Energy and Transport) and jointly performed by Arup and Gesellschaft fuer Nuklear-Behaelter mbH, was carried out in 1998. The work consisted of three components: Survey of existing finite element software, with a view to finding codes that may be capable of analysing drop test performance of radioactive material packages, and to produce an inventory of them. Develop a set of benchmark problems to evaluate software used for analysing the drop test performance of packages. Evaluate the finite element codes by testing them against the benchmarks This paper presents a summary of this work.

Exploring scenarios for more sustainable heating: The case of Niš, Serbia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zivkovic, Marija; Pereverza, Kateryna; Pasichnyi, Oleksii; Madzarevic, Aleksandar; Ivezic, Dejan; Kordas, Olga

2016-01-01

Sustainability transformation of the heating sector is recognised as being essential for reaching climate and environmental targets while improving the quality of life in cities worldwide. Participatory strategic planning enabled by scenario methods can be an important tool to guide this transformation, but methods for qualitative scenario analysis supporting stakeholder participation must be further developed and tested in the context of different cities. This paper presents results from integration of urban energy system modelling into the participatory strategic planning process implemented in the city of Niš, which suffers problems typical of the heating sector in Serbia and the Western Balkans. The aim was to explore how the scenarios developed by local stakeholders could transform the Niš heating system by 2030. Five scenarios developed within participatory backcasting project and a BAU scenario were analysed in terms of decarbonisation, energy security and energy efficiency using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). A final scenario “Efficiency for the green future” designed by the stakeholders for implementation in the city included high standards of energy efficiency in buildings, increased share of renewables in the heating energy mix, expanding the district heating system, deploying smart technologies and green architecture. The LEAP model demonstrated that this final scenario could lead to achievement of the desirable future vision developed by stakeholders for Niš, through substantial improvements in energy efficiency and energy security, and to considerable emissions decreases by 2030 in comparison with the base year (2010) and the BAU scenario. - Highlights: • Energy system modelling is integrated into the participatory backcasting process. • Five scenarios and BAU for heating system in Niš by 2030 are analysed in LEAP. • The final scenario is based on EE, RES, DH, smart technologies and green architecture. • The

Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

2016-01-01

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

Method-Based Higher Education in Sustainability: The Potential of the Scenario Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard Beecroft

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Both sustainability and education are challenging process-oriented objectives. When the aim is to combine both notions, as in Higher Education in Sustainability (HES, it is indispensable to first establish a common ground between them. In this paper, we characterise this common ground in terms of four aspects: future orientation, normativity, global perspective, and theory engaged in practice. Based on an analysis of the common ground, one method that is well-established in a wide range of sustainability sciences shows high potential for use in HES because it covers all four aspects in detail: the scenario method. We argue that a didactical reconstruction of the scenario method is necessary to utilise its potential and develop adequate forms of teaching in higher education. The scenario method is used to construct and analyse a set of alternative future developments to support decisions that have to be made in the present. Didactical reconstruction reveals a spectrum of objectives for which the scenario method can be employed: (1 projection; (2 teleological planning and (3 an explorative search for possibilities not yet considered. By studying and experimenting with this spectrum of objectives, students in HES can develop fundamental reflexive competencies in addressing the future in different ways that are relevant for both sustainability and education.

Astronomy LITE Demonstrations

Science.gov (United States)

Brecher, Kenneth

2006-12-01

Project LITE (Light Inquiry Through Experiments) is a materials, software, and curriculum development project. It focuses on light, optics, color and visual perception. According to two recent surveys of college astronomy faculty members, these are among the topics most often included in the large introductory astronomy courses. The project has aimed largely at the design and implementation of hands-on experiences for students. However, it has also included the development of lecture demonstrations that employ novel light sources and materials. In this presentation, we will show some of our new lecture demonstrations concerning geometrical and physical optics, fluorescence, phosphorescence and polarization. We have developed over 200 Flash and Java applets that can be used either by teachers in lecture settings or by students at home. They are all posted on the web at http://lite.bu.edu. For either purpose they can be downloaded directly to the user's computer or run off line. In lecture demonstrations, some of these applets can be used to control the light emitted by video projectors to produce physical effects in materials (e.g. fluorescence). Other applets can be used, for example, to demonstrate that the human percept of color does not have a simple relationship with the physical frequency of the stimulating source of light. Project LITE is supported by Grant #DUE-0125992 from the NSF Division of Undergraduate Education.

A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

1992-01-01

The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

Self-Management for Primary School Students Demonstrating Problem Behavior in Regular Classrooms: Evidence Review of Single-Case Design Research

Science.gov (United States)

Busacca, Margherita L.; Anderson, Angelika; Moore, Dennis W.

2015-01-01

This review evaluates self-management literature targeting problem behaviors of primary school students in general education settings. Thirty-one single-case design studies met inclusion criteria, of which 16 demonstrated adequate methodological rigor, according to What Works Clearinghouse (WWC) design standards. Visual analysis and WWC…

Didactic demonstrations of superfluidity and superconductivity phenomena

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aniola-Jedrzejak, L.; Lewicki, A.; Pilipowicz, A.; Tarnawski, Z.; Bialek, H.

1980-01-01

In order to demonstrate to students phenomena of superfluidity and superconductivity a special helium cryostat has been constructed. The demonstrated effects, construction of the cryostat and the method of demonstration are described. (author)

Ambitious mitigation scenarios for Germany: A participatory approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmid, Eva; Knopf, Brigitte

2012-01-01

This paper addresses the challenge of engaging civil society stakeholders in the development process of ambitious mitigation scenarios that are based on formal energy system modeling, allowing for the explicit attachment of normative considerations to technology-focused mitigation options. It presents the definition and model results for a set of mitigation scenarios for Germany that achieve 85% CO 2 emission reduction in 2050 relative to 1990. During consecutive dialogues, civil society stakeholders from the transport and electricity sector framed the definition of boundary conditions for the energy-economy model REMIND-D and evaluated the scenarios with regard to plausibility and social acceptance implications. Even though the limited scope of this research impedes inferential conclusions on the German energy transition as a whole, it demonstrates that the technological solutions to the mitigation problem proposed by the model give rise to significant societal and political implications that deem at least as challenging as the mere engineering aspects of innovative technologies. These insights underline the importance of comprehending mitigation of energy-related CO 2 emissions as a socio-technical transition embedded in a political context. - Highlights: ► Preferences of German civil society stakeholders are elicited in dialogues. ► Three scenarios represent likely, desirable and controversial key developments. ► A carbon lock-in from freight transport and coal electrification is deemed likely. ► Stakeholders advocate major paradigm shifts for resolving the carbon lock-in. ► Institutional and societal factors are decisive for achieving ambitious mitigation.

Designing Bilingual Scenarios to Promote English Language Learning at a Public School in Monteria

Science.gov (United States)

Romero, Yanilis; Manjarres, Milton Pájaro

2016-01-01

This research study examines the assumptions of creating bilingual scenarios to promote English language learning for 384 students of ninth, tenth and eleventh grade of a public school in Monteria Colombia. An action research methodology was carried out in this study. The findings of this research suggested that the creation of bilingual scenarios…

Instructor and student knowledge of study strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Morehead, Kayla; Rhodes, Matthew G; DeLozier, Sarah

2016-01-01

Students' self-reported study skills and beliefs are often inconsistent with empirically supported (ES) study strategies. However, little is known regarding instructors' beliefs about study skills and if such beliefs differ from those of students. In the current study, we surveyed college students' and instructors' knowledge of study strategies and had both groups evaluate the efficacy of learning strategies described in six learning scenarios. Results from the survey indicated that students frequently reported engaging in methods of studying that were not optimal for learning. Instructors' responses to the survey indicated that they endorsed a number of effective study skills but also held several beliefs inconsistent with research in learning and memory (e.g., learning styles). Further, results from the learning scenarios measure indicated that instructors were moderately more likely than students to endorse ES learning strategies. Collectively, these data suggest that instructors exhibited better knowledge of effective study skills than students, although the difference was small. We discuss several notable findings and argue for the improvement of both students' and instructors' study skill knowledge.

Virtual patients in a virtual world: Training paramedic students for practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Conradi, Emily; Kavia, Sheetal; Burden, David; Rice, Alan; Woodham, Luke; Beaumont, Chris; Savin-Baden, Maggi; Poulton, Terry

2009-08-01

Collaborative learning through case-based or problem-based learning (PBL) scenarios is an excellent way for students to acquire knowledge and develop decision-making skills. However, the process is threatened by the movement towards more self-directed learning and the migration of students from campus-based to workplace-based learning. Paper-based PBL cases can only proceed in a single direction which can prevent learners from exploring the impact of their decisions. The PREVIEW project, outlined in this article, trialled a replacement to traditional paper PBL with virtual patients (VPs) delivered through a virtual world platform. The idea was that an immersive 3D environment could provide (a) greater realism (b) active decision-making and (c) a suitable environment for collaboration amongst work-based learners meeting remotely. Five VP scenarios were designed for learners on a Paramedic Foundation Degree within the virtual world second life (SL). A player using the MedBiquitous VP international standard allowed cases to be played both within SL and on the web. Three testing days were run to evaluate the scenarios with paramedic students and tutors. Students unfamiliar with the SL environment worked through five PBL scenarios in small groups, shadowed by 'in-world' facilitators. Feedback indicated that the SL environment engages students effectively in learning, despite some technology barriers. Students believed SL could provide a more authentic learner environment than classroom-based PBL.

Evaluation of an animation tool developed to supplement dental student study of the cranial nerves.

Science.gov (United States)

Lone, M; McKenna, J P; Cryan, J F; Vagg, T; Toulouse, A; Downer, E J

2017-12-30

The structure/function of the cranial nerves is a core topic for dental students. However, due to the perceived complexity of the subject, it is often difficult for students to develop a comprehensive understanding of key concepts using textbooks and models. It is accepted that the acquisition of anatomical knowledge can be facilitated by visualisation of structures. This study aimed to develop and assess a novel cranial nerve animation as a supplemental learning aid for dental students. A multidisciplinary team of anatomists, neuroscientists and a computer scientist developed a novel animation depicting the cranial nerves. The animation was viewed by newly enrolled first-year dental students, graduate entry dental students (year 1) and dental hygiene students (year 1). A simple life scenario employing the use of the cranial nerves was developed using a cartoon-type animation with a viewing time of 3.58 minutes. The animation was developed with emphasis on a life scenario. The animation was placed online for 2 weeks with open access or viewed once in a controlled laboratory setting. Questionnaires were designed to assess the participants' attitude towards the animation and their knowledge of the cranial nerves before and after visualisation. This study was performed before the delivery of core lectures on the cranial nerves. Our findings indicate that the use of the animation can act as a supplemental tool to improve student knowledge of the cranial nerves. Indeed, data indicate that a single viewing of the animation, in addition to 2-week access to the animation, can act as a supplemental learning tool to assist student understanding of the structure and function of cranial nerves. The animation significantly enhanced the student's opinion that their cranial nerve knowledge had improved. From a qualitative point of view, the students described the animation as an enjoyable and useful supplement to reading material/lectures and indicated that the animation was a

Study on probability distribution of fire scenarios in risk assessment to emergency evacuation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu Guanquan; Wang Jinhui

2012-01-01

Event tree analysis (ETA) is a frequently-used technique to analyze the probability of probable fire scenario. The event probability is usually characterized by definite value. It is not appropriate to use definite value as these estimates may be the result of poor quality statistics and limited knowledge. Without addressing uncertainties, ETA will give imprecise results. The credibility of risk assessment will be undermined. This paper presents an approach to address event probability uncertainties and analyze probability distribution of probable fire scenario. ETA is performed to construct probable fire scenarios. The activation time of every event is characterized as stochastic variable by considering uncertainties of fire growth rate and other input variables. To obtain probability distribution of probable fire scenario, Markov Chain is proposed to combine with ETA. To demonstrate the approach, a case study is presented.

Learning Through Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose

level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

Education Payload Operation - Demonstrations

Science.gov (United States)

Keil, Matthew

2009-01-01

Education Payload Operation - Demonstrations (EPO-Demos) are recorded video education demonstrations performed on the International Space Station (ISS) by crewmembers using hardware already onboard the ISS. EPO-Demos are videotaped, edited, and used to enhance existing NASA education resources and programs for educators and students in grades K-12. EPO-Demos are designed to support the NASA mission to inspire the next generation of explorers.

Minor actinides transmutation scenario studies with PWRs, FRs and moderated targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grouiller, J.P.; Pillon, S.; Saint Jean, C. de; Varaine, F.; Leyval, L.; Vambenepe, G.; Carlier, B.

2003-01-01

Using current technologies, we have demonstrated in this study that it is theoretically possible to obtain different minor actinide transmutation scenarios with a significant gain on the waste radiotoxicity inventory. The handling of objects with Am+Cm entails the significant increase of penetrating radiation sources (neutron and γ) whatever mixed scenario is envisioned; the PWR and FR scenario involving the recycling of Am + Cm in the form of targets results in the lowest flow. In the light of these outcomes, the detailed studies has allowed to design a target sub assembly with a high fission rate (90%) and define a drawing up of reprocessing diagram with the plant head, the minor actinide separation processes (PUREX, DIAMEX and SANEX). Some technological difficulties appear in manipulating curium, principally in manufacturing where the wet process ('sol-gel') is not acquired for (Am+Cm). (author)

From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

2014-01-01

Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

Scenario-based strategizing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

2017-01-01

For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

40 Years of Shell Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-02-15

Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

2008-01-01

Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

Scenarios for remote gas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

2009-01-01

The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

Student Engagement with a Flipped Classroom Teaching Design Affects Pharmacology Examination Performance in a Manner Dependent on Question Type

Science.gov (United States)

Naidu, Som; Yuriev, Elizabeth; Short, Jennifer L.; McLaughlin, Jacqueline E.; Larson, Ian C.

2017-01-01

Objective: To investigate the relationship between student engagement with the key elements of a flipped classroom approach (preparation and attendance), their attitudes to learning, including strategy development, and their performance on two types of examination questions (knowledge recall and providing rational predictions when faced with novel scenarios). Methods. This study correlated student engagement with the flipped classroom and student disposition to learning with student ability to solve novel scenarios in examinations. Results. Students who both prepared for and attended classes performed significantly better on examination questions that required analysis of novel scenarios compared to students who did not prepare and missed classes. However, there was no difference for both groups of students on examination questions that required knowledge and comprehension. Student motivation and use of strategies correlated with higher examination scores on questions requiring novel scenario analysis. Conclusion. There is a synergistic relationship between class preparation and attendance. The combination of preparation and attendance was positively correlated to assessment type; the relationship was apparent for questions requiring students to solve novel problems but not for questions requiring knowledge or comprehension. PMID:29302082

Student Engagement with a Flipped Classroom Teaching Design Affects Pharmacology Examination Performance in a Manner Dependent on Question Type.

Science.gov (United States)

White, Paul J; Naidu, Som; Yuriev, Elizabeth; Short, Jennifer L; McLaughlin, Jacqueline E; Larson, Ian C

2017-11-01

Objective: To investigate the relationship between student engagement with the key elements of a flipped classroom approach (preparation and attendance), their attitudes to learning, including strategy development, and their performance on two types of examination questions (knowledge recall and providing rational predictions when faced with novel scenarios). Methods. This study correlated student engagement with the flipped classroom and student disposition to learning with student ability to solve novel scenarios in examinations. Results. Students who both prepared for and attended classes performed significantly better on examination questions that required analysis of novel scenarios compared to students who did not prepare and missed classes. However, there was no difference for both groups of students on examination questions that required knowledge and comprehension. Student motivation and use of strategies correlated with higher examination scores on questions requiring novel scenario analysis. Conclusion. There is a synergistic relationship between class preparation and attendance. The combination of preparation and attendance was positively correlated to assessment type; the relationship was apparent for questions requiring students to solve novel problems but not for questions requiring knowledge or comprehension.

Classroom as Reality: Demonstrating Campaign Effects through Live Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Coffey, Daniel J.; Miller, William J.; Feuerstein, Derek

2011-01-01

Scholastic research has demonstrated that when conducted properly, active learning exercises are successful at increasing student awareness, student interest, and knowledge retention. Face-to-face simulations, in particular, have been demonstrated to add positively to classrooms focusing on comparative politics, international relations, public…

Supply Chain Simulator: A Scenario-Based Educational Tool to Enhance Student Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Siddiqui, Atiq; Khan, Mehmood; Akhtar, Sohail

2008-01-01

Simulation-based educational products are excellent set of illustrative tools that proffer features like visualization of the dynamic behavior of a real system, etc. Such products have great efficacy in education and are known to be one of the first-rate student centered learning methodologies. These products allow students to practice skills such…

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

2006-12-01

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

Structured Learning Teams: Reimagining Student Group Work

Science.gov (United States)

Lendvay, Gregory C.

2014-01-01

Even in a standards-based curriculum, teachers can apply constructivist practices such as structured learning teams. In this environment, students become invested in the learning aims, triggering the desire in students to awaken, get information, interpret, remix, share, and design scenarios.

Improvement on a science curriculum including experimental demonstration of environmental radioactivity for secondary school students

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, Kenji; Matsubara, Shizuo; Aiba, Yoshio; Eriguchi, Hiroshi; Kiyota, Saburo; Takeyama, Tetsuji.

1988-01-01

A science curriculum previously prepared for teaching environmental radioactivity was modified on the basis of the results of trial instructions in secondary schools. The main subject of the revised curriculum is an understanding of the natural radioactivity through the experimental demonstration about air-borne β and γ ray emitters. The other subjects included are the radioactive decay, the biological effects of radiation, the concept of risk-benefit balance (acceptable level) and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and radiation. The work sheets and reference data prepared as learning materials are in two levels corresponding to the ability of students for this curriculum. (author)

Social Networks and Workplace Risk: Classroom Scenarios from a U.S. and EU Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Binder, Perry; Mansfield, Nancy R.

2013-01-01

The explosion of social networks and the growing concern over privacy in the digital age--both in the United States and Europe--have provided an opportunity to introduce students to the legal risks of using social media in the workplace. This article builds on the authors' classroom experiences and provides social media scenarios and projects that…

A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manns PJ

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

Exposure scenarios for workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

2007-01-01

The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

Regional climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-01-01

Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

2002-01-01

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

Cultural and hierarchical influences: ethical issues faced by Taiwanese nursing students.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeh, Mei-Yu; Wu, Shu-Mei; Che, Hui-Lian

2010-05-01

OBJECTIVES Improving nurses' competence in resolving clinical ethical issues must start with ethics education in training and clinical practice. However, many students complain that they cannot apply classroom learning to actual clinical scenarios. This study explored ethical issues and dilemmas, and their impact experienced by student nurses in clinical practice. METHODS Focus groups were conducted with 44 first-year student nurses from a 2-year college course in northern Taiwan. Interviews were tape-recorded and verbatim transcripts were analysed using content analysis. RESULTS Students expressed and discussed their views in eight focus groups. Analysis of interviews revealed five themes: frustration at inability to help some patients; oppression caused by lower status; lack of honesty and ethical courage; powerlessness, and self-encouragement in adversity. CONCLUSIONS Taiwanese nurse ethics training was only recently introduced and the curriculum has not addressed the clinical reality in Taiwan. This reality includes limitations arising from the medical hierarchy and the socio-cultural role of families in medical decision making, which may inhibit ethical judgements and decision making. In clinical dilemmas, the most common problems faced by Taiwanese nursing students involved not knowing how to handle some situations, inability to abide by principles, and a lack of appropriate role models. Hence, we suggest that nursing ethics education should: (i) integrate scenarios involving ethical dilemmas into daily routines; (ii) give students opportunities to discuss their feelings about their experiences; (iii) allow teachers and students to talk about scenarios with ethical implications, and (iv) provide students with opportunities to reflect on clinical scenarios in order to clarify their values and learn how to respect the value of life.

Interprofessional simulation training improves knowledge and teamwork in nursing and medical students during internal medicine clerkship.

Science.gov (United States)

Tofil, Nancy M; Morris, Jason L; Peterson, Dawn Taylor; Watts, Penni; Epps, Chad; Harrington, Kathy F; Leon, Kevin; Pierce, Caleb; White, Marjorie Lee

2014-03-01

Simulation is effective at improving healthcare students' knowledge and communication. Despite increasingly interprofessional approaches to medicine, most studies demonstrate these effects in isolation. We enhanced an existing internal medicine curriculum with immersive interprofessional simulations. For ten months, third-year medical students and senior nursing students were recruited for four, 1-hour simulations. Scenarios included myocardial infarction, pancreatitis/hyperkalemia, upper gastrointestinal bleed, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation. After each scenario, experts in medicine, nursing, simulation, and adult learning facilitated a debriefing. Study measures included pre- and post-tests assessing self-efficacy, communication skills, and understanding of each profession's role. Seventy-two medical students and 30 nursing students participated. Self-efficacy communication scores improved for both (medicine, 18.9 ± 3.3 pretest vs 23.7 ± 3.7 post-test; nursing, 19.6 ± 2.7 pretest vs 24.5 ± 2.5 post-test). Both groups showed improvement in "confidence to correct another healthcare provider in a collaborative manner" (Δ = .97 medicine, Δ = 1.2 nursing). Medical students showed the most improvement in "confidence to close the loop in patient care" (Δ = .93). Nursing students showed the most improvement in "confidence to figure out roles" (Δ = 1.1). This study supports the hypothesis that interdisciplinary simulation improves each discipline's self-efficacy communication skills and understanding of each profession's role. Despite many barriers to interprofessional simulation, this model is being sustained. © 2014 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Energy technology perspectives - scenarios and strategies to 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-11-03

At their 2005 summit in Gleneagles, G8 leaders confronted questions of energy security and supply and lowering of CO{sub 2} emissions and decided to act with resolve and urgency. They called upon the International Energy Agency to provide advice on scenarios and strategies for a clean and secure energy future. Energy Technology Perspectives is a response to the G8 request. This work demonstrates how energy technologies can make a difference in a series of global scenarios to 2050. It reviews in detail the status and prospects of key energy technologies in electricity generation, buildings, industry and transport. It assesses ways the world can enhance energy security and contain growth in CO{sub 2} emissions by using a portfolio of current and emerging technologies. Major strategic elements of a successful portfolio are energy efficiency, CO{sub 2} capture and storage, renewables and nuclear power. 110 figs., 4 annexes.

Transmutation Scenarios Impacts on Advanced Nuclear Cycles. Fabrication, Reprocessing and Transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saturnin, A.; Sarrat, P.; Hancok, H.; Milot, J.-F.; Duret, B.; Jasserand, F.; Fillastre, E.; Giffard, F.-X.; Chabert, C.; Van Den Durpel, L.; Caron-Charles, M.; Lefevre, J.C.; Carlier, B.; Arslan, M.; Favet, D.; Garzenne, C.; Barbrault, P.

2013-01-01

Conclusions: First detailed assessment of plants and transportation in various transmutation scenarios. In case of curium transmutation: large difficulties and uncertainties requiring whole new technology development (more pronounced for ADS option). For Am transmutation: more feasible, still to be demonstrated on specific points for industrial extrapolation

Reliability demonstration of imaging surveillance systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheridan, T.F.; Henderson, J.T.; MacDiarmid, P.R.

1979-01-01

Security surveillance systems which employ closed circuit television are being deployed with increasing frequency for the protection of property and other valuable assets. A need exists to demonstrate the reliability of such systems before their installation to assure that the deployed systems will operate when needed with only the scheduled amount of maintenance and support costs. An approach to the reliability demonstration of imaging surveillance systems which employ closed circuit television is described. Failure definitions based on industry television standards and imaging alarm assessment criteria for surveillance systems are discussed. Test methods which allow 24 hour a day operation without the need for numerous test scenarios, test personnel and elaborate test facilities are presented. Existing reliability demonstration standards are shown to apply which obviate the need for elaborate statistical tests. The demonstration methods employed are shown to have applications in other types of imaging surveillance systems besides closed circuit television

Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

2009-01-01

Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

How to Demonstrate Microgravity in your Classroom

Science.gov (United States)

DeLombard, Richard; Hall, Nancy Rabel

2013-01-01

Learn why zero gravity is a misnomer and learn how to demonstrate microgravity to students and the general public. In this session, a short theory segment will explain and reinforce these concepts so that you may explain to others. Session participants will also see simple equipment that demonstrates microgravity during the session and can just as well be done in the classroom or museum exhibit hall. The hands-on demonstration devices range from a leaky water bottle to an electronic drop tower with an on-board camera. The session will also include demonstration techniques for Physics, Forces & Motion, and orbits. This material is useful for middle school forces and motions instruction, high school physics instruction, public demonstrations at conferences & school open houses, travelling museum exhibits, fixed museum exhibits, and independent student projects or experiments. These activities also connect the terrestrial demonstration with planetary & moon motion, comet trajectory, and more.

Energy scenarios for New Zealand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

1977-10-15

Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

2011-01-01

A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

2011-07-15

There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

The Application of Neutron Transport Green's Functions to Threat Scenario Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Thoreson, Gregory G.; Schneider, Erich A.; Armstrong, Hirotatsu; van der Hoeven, Christopher A.

2015-02-01

Radiation detectors provide deterrence and defense against nuclear smuggling attempts by scanning vehicles, ships, and pedestrians for radioactive material. Understanding detector performance is crucial to developing novel technologies, architectures, and alarm algorithms. Detection can be modeled through radiation transport simulations; however, modeling a spanning set of threat scenarios over the full transport phase-space is computationally challenging. Previous research has demonstrated Green's functions can simulate photon detector signals by decomposing the scenario space into independently simulated submodels. This paper presents decomposition methods for neutron and time-dependent transport. As a result, neutron detector signals produced from full forward transport simulations can be efficiently reconstructed by sequential application of submodel response functions.

Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Lene

2004-01-01

design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

Mars base buildup scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blacic, J.D.

1985-01-01

Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

A randomized controlled pilot trial comparing the impact of access to clinical endocrinology video demonstrations with access to usual revision resources on medical student performance of clinical endocrinology skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Hibbert, Emily J; Lambert, Tim; Carter, John N; Learoyd, Diana L; Twigg, Stephen; Clarke, Stephen

2013-10-03

Demonstrating competence in clinical skills is key to course completion for medical students. Methods of providing clinical instruction that foster immediate learning and potentially serve as longer-term repositories for on-demand revision, such as online videos demonstrating competent performance of clinical skills, are increasingly being used. However, their impact on learning has been little studied. The aim of this study was to determine the value of adjunctive on-demand video-based training for clinical skills acquisition by medical students in endocrinology. Following an endocrinology clinical tutorial program, 2nd year medical students in the pre-assessment revision period were recruited and randomized to either a set of bespoke on-line clinical skills training videos (TV), or to revision as usual (RAU). The skills demonstrated on video were history taking in diabetes mellitus (DMH), examination for diabetes lower limb complications (LLE), and examination for signs of thyroid disease (TE). Students were assessed on these clinical skills in an observed structured clinical examination two weeks after randomization. Assessors were blinded to student randomization status. For both diabetes related clinical skills assessment tasks, students in the TV group performed significantly better than those in the RAU group. There were no between group differences in thyroid examination performance. For the LLE, 91.7% (n = 11/12) of students randomized to the video were rated globally as competent at the skill compared with 40% (n = 4/10) of students not randomized to the video (p = 0.024). For the DMH, 83.3% (n = 10/12) of students randomized to the video were rated globally as competent at the skill compared with 20% (n = 2/10) of students not randomized to the video (p = 0.007). Exposure to high quality videos demonstrating clinical skills can significantly improve medical student skill performance in an observed structured clinical examination of these skills, when

What Can Students Learn in an Extended Role-Play Simulation on Technology and Society?

Science.gov (United States)

Loui, Michael C.

2009-01-01

In a small course on technology and society, students participated in an extended role-play simulation for two weeks. Each student played a different adult character in a fictional community, which faces technological decisions in three scenarios set in the near future. The three scenarios involved stem cell research, nanotechnology, and privacy.…

Using a Corporate Code of Ethics to Assess Students' Ethicality: Implications for Business Education

Science.gov (United States)

Persons, Obeua

2009-01-01

The author used a corporate code of ethics as a roadmap to create 18 scenarios for assessing business students' ethicality as measured by their behavioral intention. Using a logistic regression analysis, the author also examined 8 factors that could potentially influence students' ethicality. Results indicate 6 scenarios related to 5 areas of the…

From scenarios to components

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fahland, D.

2010-01-01

Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

Magnetic levitation on a type-I superconductor as a practical demonstration experiment for students

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osorio, M R; Lahera, D E; Suderow, H

2012-01-01

We describe and discuss an experimental set-up which allows undergraduate and graduate students to view and study magnetic levitation on a type-I superconductor. The demonstration can be repeated many times using one readily available 25 l liquid helium dewar. We study the equilibrium position of a magnet that levitates over a lead bowl immersed in a liquid hand-held helium cryostat. We combine the measurement of the position of the magnet with simple analytical calculations. This provides a vivid visualization of magnetic levitation from the balance between pure flux expulsion and gravitation. The experiment contrasts and illustrates the case of magnetic levitation with high temperature type-II superconductors using liquid nitrogen, where levitation results from partial flux expulsion and vortex physics. (paper)

Magnetic levitation on a type-I superconductor as a practical demonstration experiment for students

Science.gov (United States)

Osorio, M. R.; Lahera, D. E.; Suderow, H.

2012-09-01

We describe and discuss an experimental set-up which allows undergraduate and graduate students to view and study magnetic levitation on a type-I superconductor. The demonstration can be repeated many times using one readily available 25 l liquid helium dewar. We study the equilibrium position of a magnet that levitates over a lead bowl immersed in a liquid hand-held helium cryostat. We combine the measurement of the position of the magnet with simple analytical calculations. This provides a vivid visualization of magnetic levitation from the balance between pure flux expulsion and gravitation. The experiment contrasts and illustrates the case of magnetic levitation with high temperature type-II superconductors using liquid nitrogen, where levitation results from partial flux expulsion and vortex physics.

Student-focused virtual histology education: Do new scenarios and digital technology matter?

OpenAIRE

Felszeghy Szabolcs; Pasonen-Seppänen Sanna; Koskela Ali; Mahonen Anitta

2017-01-01

Innovative changes have become a critical part of teaching when resources are limited. In this study, we examined whether the student-oriented teaching method, when powered by virtual microscopy, improves histology learning compared to traditional microscope-based studies. Anonymous and voluntary post-course surveys were administered to students and essays were processed for content analysis. Google Analytics was used to obtain accurate Internet usage monitoring for WEBMICROSCOPE®. Using SPSS...

Engineering Students' Self-Efficacy Judgment to Solve Mathematical Problems in the Classroom or Online

Science.gov (United States)

Villarreal-Treviño, Maria Guadalupe; Villarreal-Lozano, Ricardo Jesus; Morales-Martinez, Guadalupe Elizabeth; Lopez-Ramirez, Ernesto Octavio; Flores-Moreno, Norma Esthela

2017-01-01

This study explored in a sample of 560 high level education students their judgment formation to perceived self-efficacy to solve mathematical tasks. Students had to read 36 experimental vignettes describing educative scenarios to learn mathematics. Each scenario presented four manipulated pieces of information (learning modality, task difficulty,…

Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contaldi, Mario

2005-01-01

This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

Easing student transition to graduate nurse: a SIMulated Professional Learning Environment (SIMPLE) for final year student nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

Liaw, Sok Ying; Koh, Yiwen; Dawood, Rabiah; Kowitlawakul, Yanika; Zhou, Wentao; Lau, Siew Tiang

2014-03-01

Preparing nursing students for making the transition to graduate nurse is crucial for entry into practice. Final year student nurses at the National University of Singapore (NUS) are required to undergo a consolidated clinical practice to prepare them for their transition to graduate nurse. To describe the development, implementation and evaluation of a simulation program known as SIMulated Professional Learning Environment (SIMPLE) in preparing the final year student nurses for their clinical practicum in transition to graduate nurse practice. A set of simulation features and best practices were used as conceptual framework to develop and implement the simulation program. 94 final year student nurses participated in the 15-hour SIMPLE program that incorporated multiple simulation scenarios based on actual ward clinical practices. Pre and post-tests were conducted to assess the students' preparedness for their clinical practice in transition to graduate nurse practice. The students also completed a satisfaction questionnaire and open questions to evaluate their simulation experiences. The student nurses demonstrated a significant improvement (t=12.06, pnurse practice. They were highly satisfied with their simulation learning. Themes emerged from the comments on the most valuable aspects of the SIMPLE program and ways to improve the program. The study provided evidences on the effectiveness of the SIMPLE program in enhancing the students' preparedness for their transition to graduate nurse practice. A key success of the SIMPLE program was the used of simulation strategy and the involvement of practicing nurses that closely linked the students with the realities of current nursing practice to prepare them for the role of staff nurses. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An economic evaluation of alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gbadebo Oladosu

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Energy market conditions have shifted dramatically since the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS1 in 2005; RFS2 in 2007 were enacted. The USA has transitioned from an increasing dependence on oil imports to abundant domestic oil production. In addition, increases in the use of ethanol, the main biofuel currently produced in the USA, is now limited by the blend wall constraint. Given this, the current study evaluates alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA, accounting for changes in market conditions. The analysis is performed with a general equilibrium model that reflects the structure of the USA biofuel market as the transition to advanced biofuels begins. Results suggest that ethanol consumption would increase, albeit slowly, if current biofuel deployment rates of about 10% are maintained as persistently lower oil prices lead to a gradual increase in the consumption of liquid transportation fuels. Without the blend wall constraint, this study finds that the overall economic impact of a full implementation of the USA RFS2 policy is largely neutral before 2022. However, the economic impacts become slightly negative under the blend wall constraint since more expensive bio-hydrocarbons are needed to meet the RFS2 mandates. Results for a scenario with reduced advanced biofuel deployment based on current policy plans show near neutral economic impacts up to 2027. This scenario is also consistent with another scenario where the volume of bio-hydrocarbons deployed is reduced to adjust for its higher cost and energy content relative to deploying the mandated RFS2 advanced biofuel volumes as ethanol. The important role of technological change is demonstrated under pioneer and accelerated technology scenarios, with the latter leading to neutral or positive economic effects up to 2023 under most blend wall scenarios. All scenarios evaluated in this study are found to have positive long-term benefits for the USA economy.

Scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

2015-01-01

We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

Confrontation of the Magnetically Arrested Disc Scenario with Observations of FR II Sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rusinek, Katarzyna; Sikora, Marek, E-mail: krusinek@camk.edu.pl [Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland)

2017-10-12

The main aim of our work was to check whether powers of jets in FR II radio galaxies (RGs) and quasars (QSOs) can be reproduced by the Magnetically Arrested Disc (MAD) scenario. Assuming that established in the recent numerical simulations of the MAD scenario the (H/R){sup 2} dependence of the jet production efficiency is correct, we demonstrate that in order to reproduce the observed jet powers in FR II sources: (i) accretion discs must be geometrically much thicker than the standard ones; (ii) and/or that the jet production is strongly modulated.

Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

2017-12-01

Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

2015-01-01

This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

Demonstrating the unit hydrograph and flow routing processes involving active student participation - a university lecture experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Schulz, Karsten; Burgholzer, Reinhard; Klotz, Daniel; Wesemann, Johannes; Herrnegger, Mathew

2018-05-01

The unit hydrograph (UH) has been one of the most widely employed hydrological modelling techniques to predict rainfall-runoff behaviour of hydrological catchments, and is still used to this day. Its concept is based on the idea that a unit of effective precipitation per time unit (e.g. mm h-1) will always lead to a specific catchment response in runoff. Given its relevance, the UH is an important topic that is addressed in most (engineering) hydrology courses at all academic levels. While the principles of the UH seem to be simple and easy to understand, teaching experiences in the past suggest strong difficulties in students' perception of the UH theory and application. In order to facilitate a deeper understanding of the theory and application of the UH for students, we developed a simple and cheap lecture theatre experiment which involved active student participation. The seating of the students in the lecture theatre represented the hydrological catchment in its size and form. A set of plastic balls, prepared with a piece of magnetic strip to be tacked to any white/black board, each represented a unit amount of effective precipitation. The balls are evenly distributed over the lecture theatre and routed by some given rules down the catchment to the catchment outlet, where the resulting hydrograph is monitored and illustrated at the black/white board. The experiment allowed an illustration of the underlying principles of the UH, including stationarity, linearity, and superposition of the generated runoff and subsequent routing. In addition, some variations of the experimental setup extended the UH concept to demonstrate the impact of elevation, different runoff regimes, and non-uniform precipitation events on the resulting hydrograph. In summary, our own experience in the classroom, a first set of student exams, as well as student feedback and formal evaluation suggest that the integration of such an experiment deepened the learning experience by active

The Effects of Problem Based Scenarios on 9th Grade Students’ Attitudes towards Chemistry, Laboratory Anxiety, and Perceptions of Problem Solving

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faik Özgür Karataş

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Students were expected to construct knowledge, to criticize and to generate new ideas. PISA results in science field are disappointing. Turkish students’ performance on the questions that requires higher order thinking and problem solving skills is very poor. This indicates that learning environment should be redesigned to fulfill these lacking skills. Scenario based learning is one of the approaches that promotes problem solving skills by enabling active involvement of students into solving everyday problems. The purpose of this study is to examine effects of the problem based scenarios with worksheets on 9th grade students’ attitudes towards chemistry, laboratory anxiety, and problem solving perceptions. Pre- and post-test comparison with t-test showed that there is no significant difference before and after the treatment for none of the variables even though scores were higher after the treatment. On the other hand, data from observations and students interviews implied positive effect of the treatment.

Aircraft accident investigation: the decision-making in initial action scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Barreto, Marcia M; Ribeiro, Selma L O

2012-01-01

In the complex aeronautical environment, the efforts in terms of operational safety involve the adoption of proactive and reactive measures. The process of investigation begins right after the occurrence of the aeronautical accident, through the initial action. Thus, it is in the crisis scenario, that the person responsible for the initial action makes decisions and gathers the necessary information for the subsequent phases of the investigation process. Within this scenario, which is a natural environment, researches have shown the fragility of rational models of decision making. The theoretical perspective of naturalistic decision making constitutes a breakthrough in the understanding of decision problems demanded by real world. The proposal of this study was to verify if the initial action, after the occurrence of an accident, and the decision-making strategies, used by the investigators responsible for this activity, are characteristic of the naturalistic decision making theoretical approach. To attend the proposed objective a descriptive research was undertaken with a sample of professionals that work in this activity. The data collected through individual interviews were analyzed and the results demonstrated that the initial action environment, which includes restricted time, dynamic conditions, the presence of multiple actors, stress and insufficient information is characteristic of the naturalistic decision making. They also demonstrated that, when the investigators make their decisions, they use their experience and the mental simulation, intuition, improvisation, metaphors and analogues cases, as strategies, all of them related to the naturalistic approach of decision making, in order to satisfy the needs of the situation and reach the objectives of the initial action in the accident scenario.

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

2016-07-24

There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

The effectiveness of virtual simulation in improving student nurses' knowledge and performance during patient deterioration: A pre and post test design.

Science.gov (United States)

Borg Sapiano, Alexis; Sammut, Roberta; Trapani, Josef

2018-03-01

Preparing nursing students to perform competently in complex emergency situations, such as during rapid patient deterioration, is challenging. Students' active engagement in such scenarios cannot be ensured, due to the unexpected nature of such infrequent events. Many students may consequently not experience and integrate the management of patient deterioration into their knowledge and practical competency by the end of their studies, making them unprepared to manage such situations as practicing nurses. This study investigated the effectiveness of virtual simulation in improving performance during rapid patient deterioration. To investigate the effectiveness of virtual simulation in improving student nurses' knowledge and performance during rapid patient deterioration. A pre- and post-test design was used. Nursing students at a university in Malta were invited to participate in a virtual simulation program named FIRST 2 ACTWeb™, using their own computer devices. A total of 166 (response rate=50%) second and third year diploma and degree nursing students participated in the study. The simulation included three scenarios (Cardiac-Shock-Respiratory) portraying deteriorating patients. Performance feedback was provided at the end of each scenario. Students completed pre- and post-scenario knowledge tests and performance during each scenario was recorded automatically on a database. Findings showed a significant improvement in the students' post-scenario knowledge (z=-6.506, psimulation as an effective learning tool for pre-registration nursing students in different programs. Simulation improves both knowledge about and performance during patient deterioration. Virtual simulation of rare events should be a key component of undergraduate nurse education, to prepare students to manage complex situations as practicing nurses. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Magnetic Circuit Demonstration.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanderkooy, John; Lowe, June

1995-01-01

Presents a demonstration designed to illustrate Faraday's, Ampere's, and Lenz's laws and to reinforce the concepts through the analysis of a two-loop magnetic circuit. Can be made dramatic and challenging for sophisticated students but is suitable for an introductory course in electricity and magnetism. (JRH)

Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

Understanding Engagement: Science Demonstrations and Emotional Energy

Science.gov (United States)

Milne, Catherine; Otieno, Tracey

2007-01-01

Although beloved of some chemists and physicists, science demonstrations have been criticized for stifling inquiry and assisting teachers to maintain a power differential between themselves and students in the classroom. This interpretive study reports the unexpected positive learning outcomes for urban science students in two chemistry classes…

Case Study for the ARRA-funded GSHP Demonstration at Furman University

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Xiaobing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Malhotra, Mini [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2017-11-01

With funding provided by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, 26 ground source heat pump (GSHP) projects were competitively selected in 2009 to demonstrate the benefits of GSHP systems and innovative technologies for cost reduction and/or performance improvement. One of the selected demonstration projects was proposed by Furman University for ten student housing buildings—the North Village located on the campus in Greeneville, South Carolina. All ten buildings are identical in floor plan and construction. Each building is conditioned by an identical GSHP system consisting of 25 water-to-air heat pump (WAHP) units, a closed-loop vertical ground heat exchanger (GHX) installed under an adjacent parking lot, and two redundant 7.5 hp variable-speed pumps to circulate water through the GHX and the WAHPs. The actual performance of the GSHP systems is analyzed with available measured data for 2014. The annual energy performance is compared with a baseline scenario in which the building is conditioned by air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) with the minimum allowed efficiencies specified in ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (SEER 13 for cooling and 7.8 HSPF for heating) and supplemental electric heaters. The comparison is made in terms of energy savings, operating cost savings, cost-effectiveness, and environmental benefits. Finally, limitations in conducting this analysis are identified and recommendations for further improving the operational efficiency of the GSHP systems are made.

Emphasizing the process of science using demonstrations in conceptual chemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Lutz, Courtney A.

The purpose of this project was to teach students a method for employing the process of science in a conceptual chemistry classroom when observing a demonstration of a discrepant event. Students observed six demonstrations throughout a trimester study of chemistry and responded to each demonstration by asking as many questions as they could think of, choosing one testable question to answer by making as many hypotheses as possible, and choosing one hypothesis to make predictions about observed results of this hypothesis when tested. Students were evaluated on their curiosity, confidence, knowledge of the process of science, and knowledge of the nature of science before and after the six demonstrations. Many students showed improvement in using or mastery of the process of science within the context of conceptual chemistry after six intensive experiences with it. Results of the study also showed students gained confidence in their scientific abilities after completing one trimester of conceptual chemistry. Curiosity and knowledge of the nature of science did not show statistically significant improvement according to the assessment tool. This may have been due to the scope of the demonstration and response activities, which focused on the process of science methodology instead of knowledge of the nature of science or the constraints of the assessment tool.

HOW E-LEARNING DEMONSTRATES THE FORMATION OF STUDENTS' COGNITIVE ACTIVITY IN THE TEACHING OF QUANTUM PHYSICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ihor V. Korsun

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to prove the advisability of using the e-learning of quantum physics in the Moodle environment to help students achieve better success in this difficult subject area. The possibilities of Moodle in a distance learning environment have been analysed. E-learning tool of quantum physics in the Moodle environment has been described, and its educational opportunities have been determined. The need for material models and thought models for teaching of quantum physics has been proven. Modeling method and thought experiments explain phenomena of physics help to better understand real experiments and the essence of physics theories. The method of creation of computer models using Easy Gif Animator has been discussed. The requirements for material models have been identified, and an example of material model of Large Hadron Collider has been demonstrated. Results showed that e-learning of quantum physics increases the level of students' cognitive activity. This technique can be used for teaching other sections of physics and other natural sciences.

Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

2000-01-01

The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

2017-01-01

existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen correlations and Bell correlations in the simplest scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Quan, Quan; Zhu, Huangjun; Fan, Heng; Yang, Wen-Li

2017-06-01

Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) steering is an intermediate type of quantum nonlocality which sits between entanglement and Bell nonlocality. A set of correlations is Bell nonlocal if it does not admit a local hidden variable (LHV) model, while it is EPR nonlocal if it does not admit a local hidden variable-local hidden state (LHV-LHS) model. It is interesting to know what states can generate EPR-nonlocal correlations in the simplest nontrivial scenario, that is, two projective measurements for each party sharing a two-qubit state. Here we show that a two-qubit state can generate EPR-nonlocal full correlations (excluding marginal statistics) in this scenario if and only if it can generate Bell-nonlocal correlations. If full statistics (including marginal statistics) is taken into account, surprisingly, the same scenario can manifest the simplest one-way steering and the strongest hierarchy between steering and Bell nonlocality. To illustrate these intriguing phenomena in simple setups, several concrete examples are discussed in detail, which facilitates experimental demonstration. In the course of study, we introduce the concept of restricted LHS models and thereby derive a necessary and sufficient semidefinite-programming criterion to determine the steerability of any bipartite state under given measurements. Analytical criteria are further derived in several scenarios of strong theoretical and experimental interest.

Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

2017-01-01

In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

Delay/Disruption Tolerant Networks (DTN): Testing and Demonstration for Lunar Surface Applications

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the testing of the Delay/Disruption Tolerant Network (DTN) designed for use with Lunar Surface applications. This is being done through the DTN experimental Network (DEN), that permit access and testing by other NASA centers, DTN team members and protocol developers. The objective of this work is to demonstrate DTN for high return applications in lunar scenarios, provide DEN connectivity with analogs of Constellation elements, emulators, and other resources from DTN Team Members, serve as a wireless communications staging ground for remote analog excursions and enable testing of detailed communication scenarios and evaluation of network performance. Three scenarios for DTN on the Lunar surface are reviewed: Motion imagery, Voice and sensor telemetry, and Navigation telemetry.

Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

2016-02-11

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

Technology interactions among low-carbon energy technologies: What can we learn from a large number of scenarios?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McJeon, Haewon C.; Clarke, Leon; Kyle, Page; Wise, Marshall; Hackbarth, Andrew; Bryant, Benjamin P.; Lempert, Robert J.

2011-01-01

Advanced low-carbon energy technologies can substantially reduce the cost of stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Understanding the interactions between these technologies and their impact on the costs of stabilization can help inform energy policy decisions. Many previous studies have addressed this challenge by exploring a small number of representative scenarios that represent particular combinations of future technology developments. This paper uses a combinatorial approach in which scenarios are created for all combinations of the technology development assumptions that underlie a smaller, representative set of scenarios. We estimate stabilization costs for 768 runs of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), based on 384 different combinations of assumptions about the future performance of technologies and two stabilization goals. Graphical depiction of the distribution of stabilization costs provides first-order insights about the full data set and individual technologies. We apply a formal scenario discovery method to obtain more nuanced insights about the combinations of technology assumptions most strongly associated with high-cost outcomes. Many of the fundamental insights from traditional representative scenario analysis still hold under this comprehensive combinatorial analysis. For example, the importance of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the substitution effect among supply technologies are consistently demonstrated. The results also provide more clarity regarding insights not easily demonstrated through representative scenario analysis. For example, they show more clearly how certain supply technologies can provide a hedge against high stabilization costs, and that aggregate end-use efficiency improvements deliver relatively consistent stabilization cost reductions. Furthermore, the results indicate that a lack of CCS options combined with lower technological advances in the buildings sector or the transportation sector is

The IDEA Assessment Tool: Assessing the Reporting, Diagnostic Reasoning, and Decision-Making Skills Demonstrated in Medical Students' Hospital Admission Notes.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Elizabeth A; Ledford, Cynthia H; Fogg, Louis; Way, David P; Park, Yoon Soo

2015-01-01

Construct: Clinical skills are used in the care of patients, including reporting, diagnostic reasoning, and decision-making skills. Written comprehensive new patient admission notes (H&Ps) are a ubiquitous part of student education but are underutilized in the assessment of clinical skills. The interpretive summary, differential diagnosis, explanation of reasoning, and alternatives (IDEA) assessment tool was developed to assess students' clinical skills using written comprehensive new patient admission notes. The validity evidence for assessment of clinical skills using clinical documentation following authentic patient encounters has not been well documented. Diagnostic justification tools and postencounter notes are described in the literature (1,2) but are based on standardized patient encounters. To our knowledge, the IDEA assessment tool is the first published tool that uses medical students' H&Ps to rate students' clinical skills. The IDEA assessment tool is a 15-item instrument that asks evaluators to rate students' reporting, diagnostic reasoning, and decision-making skills based on medical students' new patient admission notes. This study presents validity evidence in support of the IDEA assessment tool using Messick's unified framework, including content (theoretical framework), response process (interrater reliability), internal structure (factor analysis and internal-consistency reliability), and relationship to other variables. Validity evidence is based on results from four studies conducted between 2010 and 2013. First, the factor analysis (2010, n = 216) yielded a three-factor solution, measuring patient story, IDEA, and completeness, with reliabilities of .79, .88, and .79, respectively. Second, an initial interrater reliability study (2010) involving two raters demonstrated fair to moderate consensus (κ = .21-.56, ρ =.42-.79). Third, a second interrater reliability study (2011) with 22 trained raters also demonstrated fair to moderate agreement

Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

Science.gov (United States)

Groeneveld, Rolf A.; Bosello, Francesco; Butenschön, Momme; Elliott, Mike; Peck, Myron A.; Pinnegar, John K.

2018-02-01

Addressing the multitude of challenges in marine policy requires an integrated approach that considers the multitude of drivers, pressures, and interests, from several disciplinary angles. Scenarios are needed to harmonise the analyses of different components of the marine system, and to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of the societal and biogeophysical dynamics in the system. This study considers a set of socio-economic scenarios to (1) explore possible futures in relation to marine invasive species, outbreak forming species, and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity; and (2) harmonise the projection modelling performed within associated studies. The exercise demonstrates that developing interdisciplinary scenarios as developed in this study is particularly complicated due to (1) the wide variety in endogeneity or exogeneity of variables in the different analyses involved; (2) the dual role of policy decisions as variables in a scenario or decisions to be evaluated and compared to other decisions; and (3) the substantial difference in time scale between societal and physical drivers.

ICT Student Teachers' Judgments and Justifications about Ethical Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Alakurt, Turgay; Bardakci, Salih; Keser, Hafize

2012-01-01

In this study, Turkish ICT student teachers' judgments and justifications in four scenarios involving ICT-related ethical problems were investigated. Scenarios were designed based on Mason's (1986) four ethical issues: privacy, accuracy, property and accessibility. The study was carried out in the fall of 2010. We used the critical incidents…

Clinical decision-making: midwifery students' recognition of, and response to, post partum haemorrhage in the simulation environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Scholes, Julie; Endacott, Ruth; Biro, MaryAnne; Bulle, Bree; Cooper, Simon; Miles, Maureen; Gilmour, Carole; Buykx, Penny; Kinsman, Leigh; Boland, Rosemarie; Jones, Jan; Zaidi, Fawzia

2012-03-23

This paper reports the findings of a study of how midwifery students responded to a simulated post partum haemorrhage (PPH). Internationally, 25% of maternal deaths are attributed to severe haemorrhage. Although this figure is far higher in developing countries, the risk to maternal wellbeing and child health problem means that all midwives need to remain vigilant and respond appropriately to early signs of maternal deterioration. Simulation using a patient actress enabled the research team to investigate the way in which 35 midwifery students made decisions in a dynamic high fidelity PPH scenario. The actress wore a birthing suit that simulated blood loss and a flaccid uterus on palpation. The scenario provided low levels of uncertainty and high levels of relevant information. The student's response to the scenario was videoed. Immediately after, they were invited to review the video, reflect on their performance and give a commentary as to what affected their decisions. The data were analysed using Dimensional Analysis. The students' clinical management of the situation varied considerably. Students struggled to prioritize their actions where more than one response was required to a clinical cue and did not necessarily use mnemonics as heuristic devices to guide their actions. Driven by a response to single cues they also showed a reluctance to formulate a diagnosis based on inductive and deductive reasoning cycles. This meant they did not necessarily introduce new hypothetical ideas against which they might refute or confirm a diagnosis and thereby eliminate fixation error. The students response demonstrated that a number of clinical skills require updating on a regular basis including: fundal massage technique, the use of emergency standing order drugs, communication and delegation of tasks to others in an emergency and working independently until help arrives. Heuristic devices helped the students to evaluate their interventions to illuminate what else could

Clinical decision-making: midwifery students' recognition of, and response to, post partum haemorrhage in the simulation environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scholes Julie

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper reports the findings of a study of how midwifery students responded to a simulated post partum haemorrhage (PPH. Internationally, 25% of maternal deaths are attributed to severe haemorrhage. Although this figure is far higher in developing countries, the risk to maternal wellbeing and child health problem means that all midwives need to remain vigilant and respond appropriately to early signs of maternal deterioration. Methods Simulation using a patient actress enabled the research team to investigate the way in which 35 midwifery students made decisions in a dynamic high fidelity PPH scenario. The actress wore a birthing suit that simulated blood loss and a flaccid uterus on palpation. The scenario provided low levels of uncertainty and high levels of relevant information. The student's response to the scenario was videoed. Immediately after, they were invited to review the video, reflect on their performance and give a commentary as to what affected their decisions. The data were analysed using Dimensional Analysis. Results The students' clinical management of the situation varied considerably. Students struggled to prioritise their actions where more than one response was required to a clinical cue and did not necessarily use mnemonics as heuristic devices to guide their actions. Driven by a response to single cues they also showed a reluctance to formulate a diagnosis based on inductive and deductive reasoning cycles. This meant they did not necessarily introduce new hypothetical ideas against which they might refute or confirm a diagnosis and thereby eliminate fixation error. Conclusions The students response demonstrated that a number of clinical skills require updating on a regular basis including: fundal massage technique, the use of emergency standing order drugs, communication and delegation of tasks to others in an emergency and working independently until help arrives. Heuristic devices helped the

Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

2013-09-01

This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

2017-01-01

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-01-01

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

2000-01-01

Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

Demonstrating the Gas Laws.

Science.gov (United States)

Holko, David A.

1982-01-01

Presents a complete computer program demonstrating the relationship between volume/pressure for Boyle's Law, volume/temperature for Charles' Law, and volume/moles of gas for Avagadro's Law. The programing reinforces students' application of gas laws and equates a simulated moving piston to theoretical values derived using the ideal gas law.…

Innovative TRU Burners and Fuel Cycles Options for Phase-Out and Regional Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vezzoni, B.; Gabrielli, F.; Rineiski, A.; Schwenk-Ferrero, A.; Andriolo, L.; Maschek, W.

2015-01-01

Partitioning and transmutation (P and T) technologies may be considered either for minor actinides (MAs) inventory stabilisation (typical for on-going/regional scenarios) or for a drastic reduction of the transuranics inventory (as in phasing-out scenarios). In this paper, two sodium-cooled fast reactor cores, based on the French ASTRID design and characterised by different amounts of MAs in the fuel, are proposed. Attention focuses on the safety and on the burning performances of the systems. The behaviour of the systems under dynamic conditions has been investigated considering phasing-out and on-going fuel cycle scenarios. The results demonstrate the flexibility of such systems when employed in different kinds of fuel cycles. The impact of different parameters, such as the initial isotopic vector (and Cm content) and the cooling time before reprocessing, on the simulation results is investigated as well. (authors)

A Sectoral Micro-Economic Approach to Scenario Selection and Development: The Case of the Greek Power Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandros Flamos

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Generating policy-relevant scenarios is instrumental for understanding and developing policy measures. These are especially relevant to the power sector. Practitioners have been working on policy-relevant scenarios for the ex-ante assessment of policy measures in a meaningful way for end-users related to climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper presents a method for generating such policy relevant scenarios by focusing on the actor-contingent elements of the scenarios, i.e., the developments that are within the control of system actors to change or bring about. Several scenario techniques focusing on systematic-formalized or quantitative approaches have been published on this front over the past few years. Here, we introduce a methodology that is best suited for the assessment of the expected effect of different policy measures on the involved stakeholders’ behavior as well as for the analysis of the interactions between different policy measures as reflected on their impact on the strength and direction of the provided incentives. The applicability of our methodology is demonstrated for the case of the Greek power market. It was further evaluated in view of the challenges related to the issues of generation capacity adequacy and increased fiscal deficit. The strategic implications of the proposed approach concern the demonstration of the benefits from adopting a policy assessment methodology that focus on stakeholder expectations and interactions.

Effect of Cardiac Arrhythmia Simulation on Nursing Students' Knowledge Acquisition and Retention.

Science.gov (United States)

Tubaishat, Ahmad; Tawalbeh, Loai I

2015-09-01

The realistic and practical environment that simulation provides is an extremely useful part of the teaching process. Simulation is widely used in health and nursing education today. This study aims to evaluate the effect of simulation-based teaching on the acquisition and retention of arrhythmia-related knowledge among nursing students. A randomized controlled design involving a pretest-posttest was used. Nursing students were allocated randomly either to the experimental group (n = 47), who attended simulation scenarios on cardiac arrhythmia, or to the control group (n = 44) who received a traditional lecture on the same topic. A paired t test showed that the mean knowledge score at the posttest was significantly higher than at the pretest for both groups. However, participants in the experimental group demonstrated significantly increased knowledge of cardiac arrhythmia in the first and the second posttest compared with those in the control group. Thus, simulation is superior and significantly improves students' arrhythmia knowledge. © The Author(s) 2014.

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

Does teaching non-technical skills to medical students improve those skills and simulated patient outcome?

Science.gov (United States)

Hagemann, Vera; Herbstreit, Frank; Kehren, Clemens; Chittamadathil, Jilson; Wolfertz, Sandra; Dirkmann, Daniel; Kluge, Annette; Peters, Jürgen

2017-03-29

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of a tailor-made, non-technical skills seminar on medical student's behaviour, attitudes, and performance during simulated patient treatment. Seventy-seven students were randomized to either a non-technical skills seminar (NTS group, n=43) or a medical seminar (control group, n=34). The human patient simulation was used as an evaluation tool. Before the seminars, all students performed the same simulated emergency scenario to provide baseline measurements. After the seminars, all students were exposed to a second scenario, and behavioural markers for evaluating their non-technical skills were rated. Furthermore, teamwork-relevant attitudes were measured before and after the scenarios, and perceived stress was measured following each simulation. All simulations were also evaluated for various medical endpoints. Non-technical skills concerning situation awareness (ptechnical skills to improve student's non-technical skills. In a next step, to improve student's handling of emergencies and patient outcomes, non-technical skills seminars should be accompanied by exercises and more broadly embedded in the medical school curriculum.

The validity of a professional competence tool for physiotherapy students in simulation-based clinical education: a Rasch analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Judd, Belinda K; Scanlan, Justin N; Alison, Jennifer A; Waters, Donna; Gordon, Christopher J

2016-08-05

Despite the recent widespread adoption of simulation in clinical education in physiotherapy, there is a lack of validated tools for assessment in this setting. The Assessment of Physiotherapy Practice (APP) is a comprehensive tool used in clinical placement settings in Australia to measure professional competence of physiotherapy students. The aim of the study was to evaluate the validity of the APP for student assessment in simulation settings. A total of 1260 APPs were collected, 971 from students in simulation and 289 from students in clinical placements. Rasch analysis was used to examine the construct validity of the APP tool in three different simulation assessment formats: longitudinal assessment over 1 week of simulation; longitudinal assessment over 2 weeks; and a short-form (25 min) assessment of a single simulation scenario. Comparison with APPs from 5 week clinical placements in hospital and clinic-based settings were also conducted. The APP demonstrated acceptable fit to the expectations of the Rasch model for the 1 and 2 week clinical simulations, exhibiting unidimensional properties that were able to distinguish different levels of student performance. For the short-form simulation, nine of the 20 items recorded greater than 25 % of scores as 'not-assessed' by clinical educators which impacted on the suitability of the APP tool in this simulation format. The APP was a valid assessment tool when used in longitudinal simulation formats. A revised APP may be required for assessment in short-form simulation scenarios.

Scenario development methods and practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

Stochastic Unit Commitment Based on Multi-Scenario Tree Method Considering Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyu-Hyung Jo

2018-03-01

Full Text Available With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, it is difficult to schedule unit commitment (UC in a power system because of the uncertainty associated with various factors. In this paper, a new solution procedure based on a multi-scenario tree method (MSTM is presented and applied to the proposed stochastic UC problem. In this process, the initial input data of load and wind power are modeled as different levels using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. The load and wind scenarios are generated using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS that considers forecasting errors. These multiple scenarios are applied in the MSTM for solving the stochastic UC problem, including not only the load and wind power uncertainties, but also sudden outages of the thermal unit. When the UC problem has been formulated, the simulation is conducted for 24-h period by using the short-term UC model, and the operating costs and additional reserve requirements are thus obtained. The effectiveness of the proposed solution approach is demonstrated through a case study based on a modified IEEE-118 bus test system.

Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

2013-01-01

A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage mecha......- and without monitoring. Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is used to estimate the probabilities and the tower of an onshore NREL 5MW wind turbine is given as a calculation case......A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage...

Inseparable Phone Books Demonstration

Science.gov (United States)

Balta, Nuri; Çetin, Ali

2017-01-01

This study is aimed at first introducing a well-known discrepant event; inseparable phone books and second, turning it into an experiment for high school or middle school students. This discrepant event could be used especially to indicate how friction force can be effective in producing an unexpected result. Demonstration, discussion, explanation…

Modification of Obstetric Emergency Simulation Scenarios for Realism in a Home-Birth Setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Komorowski, Janelle; Andrighetti, Tia; Benton, Melissa

2017-01-01

Clinical competency and clear communication are essential for intrapartum care providers who encounter high-stakes, low-frequency emergencies. The challenge for these providers is to maintain infrequently used skills. The challenge is even more significant for midwives who manage births at home and who, due to low practice volume and low-risk clientele, may rarely encounter an emergency. In addition, access to team simulation may be limited for home-birth midwives. This project modified existing validated obstetric simulation scenarios for a home-birth setting. Twelve certified professional midwives (CPMs) in active home-birth practice participated in shoulder dystocia and postpartum hemorrhage simulations. The simulations were staged to resemble home-birth settings, supplies, and personnel. Fidelity (realism) of the simulations was assessed with the Simulation Design Scale, and satisfaction and self-confidence were assessed with the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning Scale. Both utilized a 5-point Likert scale, with higher scores suggesting greater levels of fidelity, participant satisfaction, and self-confidence. Simulation Design Scale scores indicated participants agreed fidelity was achieved for the home-birth setting, while scores on the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning indicated high levels of participant satisfaction and self-confidence. If offered without modification, simulation scenarios designed for use in hospitals may lose fidelity for home-birth midwives, particularly in the environmental and psychological components. Simulation is standard of care in most settings, an excellent vehicle for maintaining skills, and some evidence suggests it results in improved perinatal outcomes. Additional study is needed in this area to support home-birth providers in maintaining skills. This pilot study suggests that simulation scenarios intended for hospital use can be successfully adapted to the home-birth setting. © 2016 by

The Use of Professionalism Scenarios in the Medical School Interview Process: Faculty and Interviewee Perceptions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James Kleshinski, MD

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of professionalism scenarios on the medical school admissions process from applicant and faculty perspectives. Specifically, do completing professionalism scenarios as part of the medical school interview process have an impact on both the interviewee’s and the faculty’s perception of the process and outcome?Method: Ninety-one faculty interviewed 199 applicants from January 2007 through April 2007 at The University of Toledo College of Medicine. All applicants were asked one standard professionalism scenario in each of their two interviews. A total of six scenarios were used for the entire interviewing season in rotation every two months. A survey was administered by an admissions office staff member to both the interviewed applicants as well as faculty who conducted interviews about how these scenarios impacted their interview experience.Results: Asking applicants to respond to professionalism scenarios during the interview was described as having a positive influence on their interview experience. This was also associated with leaving an impression on the applicant about what our institution values in its students and contributed an element of personal reflection about what will be expected of them in the medical profession. Applicants more often reported that asking questions about professionalism was an important aspect of the interview than did faculty. Overall, there was an association between the interviewer’s perception of the applicant’s response and the interviewer’s assessment of professionalism.Conclusions: Professionalism scenarios can be a worthwhile tool for use in the admissions process. The interview process should encourage participation from faculty who value this as an important component in the evaluation of an applicant. Determinants of faculty perception of the role of assessing professionalism in the interview process should be investigated in future

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

2017-01-01

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Study of Near Field Communication Technology in University Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz, Irene Luque; Miraz, Guillermo Matas; Gómez-Nieto, Miguel Ángel

2009-08-01

In this paper we present an introduction to the possibilities of NFC (Near Field Communication) technology in the University environment. NFC is the key for the development of interactive systems where "intelligent" objects interact with the user just only by touching the objects with a NFC device. We support that a University environment with active objects dispatching information and services to the users (students and teachers) can introduce an appropriate environment for the fulfillment of the new Educational European directives. Here, we briefly describe some of the possibilities of the NFC technology and we include an example of the use of NFC through a Smart Poster for a scenario where a Department directory is considered.

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-15

from 1,313 PJ in 2010. Nevertheless, the energy intensity is expected to decrease gradually across the three scenarios, from 65MJ/$ in base year (2010) to 22, 20 and 13 MJ/$ in 2050 for BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively. Importantly, under Scenario 2, the energy intensity will decrease with an average annual rate of 3,9%. Certainly, Scenario 2 has the largest capability of energy savings. The per capita primary energy consumption in Scenario 2 is the highest (at annual rate of 4.1%) and followed by Scenario 1 (3.3%) over the period. With respect to energy intensity, energy diversity and per capita consumption, BAU scenario shows is the least preferred option with highest risks related to security and diversity of supply. In Scenario 2, the proportion of oil consumption will decrease to 7.4%, i.e., lower than the values of 17.72% and 11.5% for the BAU and Scenario 1, respectively. The demand for non-conventional renewables is expected to increase significantly in all three scenarios from around 1% in 2010, to 11% 23% and 36.6% for the BAU scenario, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively over the period of 2010-2050. Overall, under Scenario 2, the degree of diversification in the total energy requirement would increase and gradually will become environmentally friendly in Ethiopia, with rapid growth in the use of alternative clean energy. The absolute CO{sub 2} emissions under the three scenarios from 2010 to 2050 will slightly increase due to the stronger economic development, which still stay within the limits of an ambitious climate change mitigation policy. Nevertheless, Scenario 2 has the lowest CO{sub 2} emission intensity, followed by the Scenario 1 and BAU scenarios. By 2050 the CO{sub 2} emissions intensities of BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 will reach 0.1, 0.08 and 0.05 kg CO{sub 2} per US$ of GDP, respectively. Overall, the results of analysis demonstrate that the alternative scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) would result in a sustainable energy

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-01

1,313 PJ in 2010. Nevertheless, the energy intensity is expected to decrease gradually across the three scenarios, from 65MJ/$ in base year (2010) to 22, 20 and 13 MJ/$ in 2050 for BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively. Importantly, under Scenario 2, the energy intensity will decrease with an average annual rate of 3,9%. Certainly, Scenario 2 has the largest capability of energy savings. The per capita primary energy consumption in Scenario 2 is the highest (at annual rate of 4.1%) and followed by Scenario 1 (3.3%) over the period. With respect to energy intensity, energy diversity and per capita consumption, BAU scenario shows is the least preferred option with highest risks related to security and diversity of supply. In Scenario 2, the proportion of oil consumption will decrease to 7.4%, i.e., lower than the values of 17.72% and 11.5% for the BAU and Scenario 1, respectively. The demand for non-conventional renewables is expected to increase significantly in all three scenarios from around 1% in 2010, to 11% 23% and 36.6% for the BAU scenario, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively over the period of 2010-2050. Overall, under Scenario 2, the degree of diversification in the total energy requirement would increase and gradually will become environmentally friendly in Ethiopia, with rapid growth in the use of alternative clean energy. The absolute CO 2 emissions under the three scenarios from 2010 to 2050 will slightly increase due to the stronger economic development, which still stay within the limits of an ambitious climate change mitigation policy. Nevertheless, Scenario 2 has the lowest CO 2 emission intensity, followed by the Scenario 1 and BAU scenarios. By 2050 the CO 2 emissions intensities of BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 will reach 0.1, 0.08 and 0.05 kg CO 2 per US$ of GDP, respectively. Overall, the results of analysis demonstrate that the alternative scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) would result in a sustainable energy transitions that

Three colossal neurons: a new approach to an old classroom demonstration.

Science.gov (United States)

Holloway, Steven R

2013-01-01

Research suggests that the key to optimal student learning, regardless of class size, is engaging students in active learning. It is my contention that to truly understand neural processing, one must not only understand the activities of the neuron as a living cell, but also how that cell works within the context of a neural network. The demonstration exercise described herein combines techniques expressed in three previously published articles, with certain modifications, allowing as few as 15 and as many as about 200 students to actively participate in the endeavor. Moreover, test scores from 158 students were examined, showing that students who participated in the demonstration performed significantly better on exam questions than students who did not take part.

The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

1998-04-01

The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

Classroom Demonstrations in Materials Science/Engineering.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirschhorn, J. S.; And Others

Examples are given of demonstrations used at the University of Wisconsin in a materials science course for nontechnical students. Topics include crystal models, thermal properties, light, and corrosion. (MLH)

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

2017-01-01

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Getting a head start: high-fidelity, simulation-based operating room team training of interprofessional students.

Science.gov (United States)

Paige, John T; Garbee, Deborah D; Kozmenko, Valeriy; Yu, Qingzhao; Kozmenko, Lyubov; Yang, Tong; Bonanno, Laura; Swartz, William

2014-01-01

Effective teamwork in the operating room (OR) is often undermined by the "silo mentality" of the differing professions. Such thinking is formed early in one's professional experience and is fostered by undergraduate medical and nursing curricula lacking interprofessional education. We investigated the immediate impact of conducting interprofessional student OR team training using high-fidelity simulation (HFS) on students' team-related attitudes and behaviors. Ten HFS OR interprofessional student team training sessions were conducted involving 2 standardized HFS scenarios, each of which was followed by a structured debriefing that targeted team-based competencies. Pre- and post-session mean scores were calculated and analyzed for 15 Likert-type items measuring self-efficacy in teamwork competencies using the t-test. Additionally, mean scores of observer ratings of team performance after each scenario and participant ratings after the second scenario for an 11-item Likert-type teamwork scale were calculated and analyzed using one-way ANOVA and t-test. Eighteen nursing students, 20 nurse anesthetist students, and 28 medical students participated in the training. Statistically significant gains from mean pre- to post-training scores occurred on 11 of the 15 self-efficacy items. Statistically significant gains in mean observer performance scores were present on all 3 subscales of the teamwork scale from the first scenario to the second. A statistically significant difference was found in comparisons of mean observer scores with mean participant scores for the team-based behaviors subscale. High-fidelity simulation OR interprofessional student team training improves students' team-based attitudes and behaviors. Students tend to overestimate their team-based behaviors. Copyright © 2014 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

First-Year University Science and Engineering Students' Understanding of Plagiarism

Science.gov (United States)

Yeo, Shelley

2007-01-01

This paper is a case study of first-year science and engineering students' understandings of plagiarism. Students were surveyed for their views on scenarios illustrating instances of plagiarism in the context of the academic work and assessment of science and engineering students. The aim was to explore their understandings of plagiarism and their…

TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

2014-01-01

TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buchholtz, Mikael

2005-01-01

The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen R. Carpenter

2006-06-01

Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

Developing and Demonstrating an Augmented Reality Colorimetric Titration Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Tee, Nicholas Yee Kwang; Gan, Hong Seng; Li, Jonathan; Cheong, Brandon Huey-Ping; Tan, Han Yen; Liew, Oi Wah; Ng, Tuck Wah

2018-01-01

The handling of chemicals in the laboratory presents a challenge in instructing large class sizes and when students are relatively new to the laboratory environment. In this work, we describe and demonstrate an augmented reality colorimetric titration tool that operates out of the smartphone or tablet of students. It allows multiple students to…

Using Cloud collaboration for writing assignments by students with disabilities: a case study using action research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kjrsten Keane

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Though separated by geographical distance, a student with disabilities, his advisor, and his writing coach consorted in the Cloud using Google applications to achieve a writing goal. Our scenario demonstrates how emerging technologies can bridge transactional distance and “virtually” supplant face-to-face conferencing around a college writing assignment. Individual levels of technical acumen with digital technology evolved to bridge the psychological and communication space between the student and his instructors. As a result, the telecollaborators developed an efficient coaching process adaptable for all students who need assistance in revising college writing assignments at a distance. Action research frames our discussion of the Cloud collaboration and provides a scaffold for student autonomy. The advantages as well and disadvantages of Cloud collaboration are outlined with reference to the National Institute of Standards of Technology definition of Cloud Computing and the Seven Principles of Universal Course Design.http://dx.doi.org/10.5944/openpraxis.6.1.79

Possible futures for the development of a fusion demonstration plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nichols, S.P.

1976-01-01

As indicated by the Fusion Planning Bulletins, the Division of Controlled Thermonuclear Research is becoming involved in planning with alternative scenarios. The Center for Energy Studies at the University of Texas at Austin has been involved with such planning for several years and has examined various scenarios for fusion power development using the Partitive Analytical Forecasting (PAF) technique. The most recent studies compare the long-term plan presented in WASH-1290, Fusion Power by Magnetic Confinement, with other plans that have been proposed, such as the plan proposed by Kulcinski and Conn of the University of Wisconsin. The study indicates that some of the alternative plans do have possibilities to shorten the required time for the completion of a demonstration fusion plant without increased costs or a decrease in the likelihood of success. The current efforts of the project are in the planning exercises recently completed by committees set up by the DCTR. Further comparisons of alternative scenarios will be performed as part of this effort

A patient safety course for preclinical medical students.

Science.gov (United States)

Shekhter, Ilya; Rosen, Lisa; Sanko, Jill; Everett-Thomas, Ruth; Fitzpatrick, Maureen; Birnbach, David

2012-12-01

We developed a course to introduce incoming third-year medical students to the subject of patient safety, to focus their attention on teamwork and communication, and to create an awareness of patient-safe practices that will positively impact their performance as clinicians. The course, held prior to the start of clinical rotations, consisted of lectures, web-based didactic materials, small group activities and simulation exercises, with an emphasis on experiential learning. First, students inspected a 'room of horrors', which is a simulated clinical environment riddled with errors. Second, we used lenticular puzzles in small groups to elicit teamwork behaviours that parallel real-life interactions in health care. Each team was given 8 minutes to complete a 48-piece puzzle, with five pieces removed at random and given to other teams. The salient teaching point of this exercise is that for a team to complete the task, team members must communicate with members of their own team as well as with other teams. Last, simulation scenarios provided a clinical context to reinforce the skills introduced through the puzzle exercise and lectures. The students were split into groups of six or seven members and challenged with two scenarios. Both scenarios focused on a 56-year-old man in respiratory distress. The teams were debriefed on both clinical management and teamwork. The vast majority of the students (93%) agreed that the course improved their patient safety knowledge and skills. The positive response from students to the introductory course is an important step in fostering a culture of patient safety. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2012.

Scenario optimization modeling approach for design and management of biomass-to-biorefinery supply chain system.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Bhavna; Ingalls, Ricki G; Jones, Carol L; Huhnke, Raymond L; Khanchi, Amit

2013-12-01

The aim of this study was to develop a scenario optimization model to address weather uncertainty in the Biomass Supply Chain (BSC). The modeling objective was to minimize the cost of biomass supply to biorefineries over a one-year planning period using monthly time intervals under different weather scenarios. The model is capable of making strategic, tactical and operational decisions related to BSC system. The performance of the model was demonstrated through a case study developed for Abengoa biorefinery in Kansas. Sensitivity analysis was done to demonstrate the effect of input uncertainty in yield, land rent and storage dry matter loss on the model outputs. The model results show that available harvest work hours influence major cost-related decisions in the BSC. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Smart manufacturing systems for Industry 4.0: Conceptual framework, scenarios, and future perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Pai; wang, Honghui; Sang, Zhiqian; Zhong, Ray Y.; Liu, Yongkui; Liu, Chao; Mubarok, Khamdi; Yu, Shiqiang; Xu, Xun

2018-06-01

Information and communication technology is undergoing rapid development, and many disruptive technologies, such as cloud computing, Internet of Things, big data, and artificial intelligence, have emerged. These technologies are permeating the manufacturing industry and enable the fusion of physical and virtual worlds through cyber-physical systems (CPS), which mark the advent of the fourth stage of industrial production (i.e., Industry 4.0). The widespread application of CPS in manufacturing environments renders manufacturing systems increasingly smart. To advance research on the implementation of Industry 4.0, this study examines smart manufacturing systems for Industry 4.0. First, a conceptual framework of smart manufacturing systems for Industry 4.0 is presented. Second, demonstrative scenarios that pertain to smart design, smart machining, smart control, smart monitoring, and smart scheduling, are presented. Key technologies and their possible applications to Industry 4.0 smart manufacturing systems are reviewed based on these demonstrative scenarios. Finally, challenges and future perspectives are identified and discussed.

Promoting Student Engagement. Volume 2: Activities, Exercises and Demonstrations for Psychology Courses

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Richard L., Ed.; Balcetis, Emily, Ed.; Burns, Susan R., Ed.; Daniel, David B., Ed.; Saville, Bryan K., Ed.; Woody, William Douglas, Ed.

2011-01-01

The purpose of the book is to provide teachers of psychology access to teaching techniques that epitomize "happy tact and ingenuity." The principle influence that teachers have on student behavior occurs in the classroom since, as noted by Erickson and Strommer, (1991), today's students spend relatively little time studying outside of class. When…

Cultural awareness in veterinary practice: student perceptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mills, Jennifer N; Volet, Simone; Fozdar, Farida

2011-01-01

Australian veterinary classrooms are increasingly diverse and their growing internal diversity is a result of migration and large numbers of international students. Graduates interact with other students and increasingly with clients whose attitudes, beliefs, values, and behaviors differ from their own. An understanding and respect for these differences has an impact on client communication and health care outcomes. The present study explored how students understand and are likely to deal with issues of cultural diversity in veterinary professional practice as well as the educational needs that students feel should be met in regard to preparation to engage productively with diversity in professional practice. The present study also explored the extent to which the rich diversity of the undergraduate student population constitutes an educational resource. A class of final-year veterinary students was invited to participate in a workshop exploring intercultural confidence in veterinary consultation. Twelve groups of six to eight students discussed a fictitious scenario involving a challenging clinical encounter with a client from a different culture. Students were reticent to see the scenario in terms of cultural difference, although they generally recognized that awareness of cultural issues in veterinary practice was important. They also tended to not see their own ethnicity as relevant to their practice. While some felt that veterinary practice should be culture blind, most recognized a need to orient to cultural difference and to respond sensitively. Their suggestions for curricular improvements to address these issues are also included.

Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parson, E A

2008-01-01

Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

Selecting Days for Concept and Technology Evaluation in SMART-NAS Test-Bed Scenario Generation, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Crown Consulting, Inc. will investigate and demonstrate methods to enable rapid selection of days for scenario generation in the development and evaluation of Air...

Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

2012-01-01

scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serhiy Nozhenko

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

2008-01-01

In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

Demonstration of a performance assessment methodology for high-level radioactive waste disposal in basalt formations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonano, E.J.; Davis, P.A.; Shipers, L.R.; Brinster, K.F.; Beyler, W.E.; Updegraff, C.D.; Shepherd, E.R.; Tilton, L.M.; Wahi, K.K.

1989-06-01

This document describes a performance assessment methodology developed for a high-level radioactive waste repository mined in deep basalt formations. This methodology is an extension of an earlier one applicable to bedded salt. The differences between the two methodologies arise primarily in the modeling of round-water flow and radionuclide transport. Bedded salt was assumed to be a porous medium, whereas basalt formations contain fractured zones. Therefore, mathematical models and associated computer codes were developed to simulate the aforementioned phenomena in fractured media. The use of the methodology is demonstrated at a hypothetical basalt site by analyzing seven scenarios: (1) thermohydrological effects caused by heat released from the repository, (2) mechanohydrological effects caused by an advancing and receding glacier, (3) normal ground-water flow, (4) pumping of ground water from a confined aquifer, (5) rerouting of a river near the repository, (6) drilling of a borehole through the repository, and (7) formation of a new fault intersecting the repository. The normal ground-water flow was considered the base-case scenario. This scenario was used to perform uncertainty and sensitivity analyses and to demonstrate the existing capabilities for assessing compliance with the ground-water travel time criterion and the containment requirements. Most of the other scenarios were considered perturbations of the base case, and a few were studied in terms of changes with respect to initial conditions. The potential impact of these scenarios on the long-term performance of the disposal system was ascertained through comparison with the base-case scenario or the undisturbed initial conditions. 66 refs., 106 figs., 27 tabs

Holography demonstrations and workshops for science and engineering outreach

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Weston; Kruse, Kevin; Middlebrook, Christopher

2012-10-01

The SPIE/OSA Student Chapter at Michigan Technological University have developed demonstrations and workshops for science and engineering outreach. The practical approach to holography promotes the study of photonic related sciences in high school and college-aged students. An introduction to laser safety, optical laboratory practices, and basic laser coherence theory is given in order to first introduce the participants to the science behind the holograms. The students are then able to create a hologram of an item of their choice, personalizing the experience. By engaging directly, the students are able to see how the theory is applied and also enforces a higher level of attention from them so no mistakes are made in their hologram. Throughout the course participants gain an appreciation for photonics by learning how holograms operate and are constructed through hands on creation of their own holograms. This paper reviews the procedures and methods used in the demonstrations and workshop while examining the overall student experience.

Virtual Lab Demonstrations Improve Students’ Mastery of Basic Biology Laboratory Techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grace A. Maldarelli

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Biology laboratory classes are designed to teach concepts and techniques through experiential learning. Students who have never performed a technique must be guided through the process, which is often difficult to standardize across multiple lab sections. Visual demonstration of laboratory procedures is a key element in teaching pedagogy. The main goals of the study were to create videos explaining and demonstrating a variety of lab techniques that would serve as teaching tools for undergraduate and graduate lab courses and to assess the impact of these videos on student learning. Demonstrations of individual laboratory procedures were videotaped and then edited with iMovie. Narration for the videos was edited with Audacity. Undergraduate students were surveyed anonymously prior to and following screening to assess the impact of the videos on student lab performance by completion of two Participant Perception Indicator surveys. A total of 203 and 171 students completed the pre- and posttesting surveys, respectively. Statistical analyses were performed to compare student perceptions of knowledge of, confidence in, and experience with the lab techniques before and after viewing the videos. Eleven demonstrations were recorded. Chi-square analysis revealed a significant increase in the number of students reporting increased knowledge of, confidence in, and experience with the lab techniques after viewing the videos. Incorporation of instructional videos as prelaboratory exercises has the potential to standardize techniques and to promote successful experimental outcomes.

Uncovering Chemical Thinking in Students' Decision Making: A Fuel-Choice Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Banks, Gregory; Clinchot, Michael; Cullipher, Steven; Huie, Robert; Lambertz, Jennifer; Lewis, Rebecca; Ngai, Courtney; Sevian, Hannah; Szteinberg, Gabriela; Talanquer, Vicente; Weinrich, Melissa

2015-01-01

Making decisions about the production and use of chemical substances is of central importance in many fields. In this study, a research team comprising teachers and educational researchers collaborated in collecting and analyzing cognitive interviews with students from 8th grade through first-year university general chemistry in an effort to map…

Kinesthetic Transverse Wave Demonstration

Science.gov (United States)

Pantidos, Panagiotis; Patapis, Stamatis

2005-09-01

This is a variation on the String and Sticky Tape demonstration "The Wave Game," suggested by Ron Edge. A group of students stand side by side, each one holding a card chest high with both hands. The teacher cues the first student to begin raising and lowering his card. When he starts lowering his card, the next student begins to raise his. As succeeding students move their cards up and down, a wave such as that shown in the figure is produced. To facilitate the process, students' motions were synchronized with the ticks of a metronome (without such synchronization it was nearly impossible to generate a satisfactory wave). Our waves typically had a frequency of about 1 Hz and a wavelength of around 3 m. We videotaped the activity so that the students could analyze the motions. The (17-year-old) students had not received any prior instruction regarding wave motion and did not know beforehand the nature of the exercise they were about to carry out. During the activity they were asked what a transverse wave is. Most of them quickly realized, without teacher input, that while the wave propagated horizontally, the only motion of the transmitting medium (them) was vertical. They located the equilibrium points of the oscillations, the crests and troughs of the waves, and identified the wavelength. The teacher defined for them the period of the oscillations of the motion of a card to be the total time for one cycle. The students measured this time and then several asserted that it was the same as the wave period. Knowing the length of the waves and the number of waves per second, the next step can easily be to find the wave speed.

Energy technology perspectives: scenarios and strategies to 2050 [Russian version

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

At their 2005 summit in Gleneagles, G8 leaders confronted questions of energy security and supply and lowering of CO{sub 2} emissions and decided to act with resolve and urgency. They called upon the International Energy Agency to provide advice on scenarios and strategies for a clean and secure energy future. Energy Technology Perspectives is a response to the G8 request. This work demonstrates how energy technologies can make a difference in a series of global scenarios to 2050. It reviews in detail the status and prospects of key energy technologies in electricity generation, buildings, industry and transport. It assesses ways the world can enhance energy security and contain growth in CO{sub 2} emissions by using a portfolio of current and emerging technologies. Major strategic elements of a successful portfolio are energy efficiency, CO{sub 2} capture and storage, renewables and nuclear power. 110 figs., 4 annexes.

Effect of Simulation on the Confidence of University Nursing Students in Applying Cardiopulmonary Assessment Skills: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Tawalbeh, Loai I

2017-08-01

Simulation is an effective teaching strategy. However, no study in Jordan has examined the effect of simulation on the confidence of university nursing students in applying heart and lung physical examination skills. The current study aimed to test the effect of simulation on the confidence of university nursing students in applying heart and lung physical examination skills. A randomized controlled trial design was applied. The researcher introduced the simulation scenario regarding cardiopulmonary examination skills. This scenario included a 1-hour PowerPoint presentation and video for the experimental group (n= 35) and a PowerPoint presentation and a video showing a traditional demonstration in the laboratory for the control group (n = 34). Confidence in applying cardiopulmonary physical examination skills was measured for both groups at baseline and at 1 day and 3 months posttest. A paired t test showed that confidence was significantly higher in the posttest than in the pretest for both groups. An independent t test showed a statistically significant difference (t(67) = -42.95, p skills. Both simulation and traditional training in the laboratory significantly improved the confidence of participants in applying cardiopulmonary assessment skills. However, the simulation training had a more significant effect than usual training in enhancing the confidence of nursing students in applying physical examination skills.

Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

1978-03-01

This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

Use of demonstrations and experiments in teaching business statistics

OpenAIRE

Johnson, D. G.; John, J. A.

2003-01-01

The aim of a business statistics course should be to help students think statistically and to interpret and understand data, rather than to focus on mathematical detail and computation. To achieve this students must be thoroughly involved in the learning process, and encouraged to discover for themselves the meaning, importance and relevance of statistical concepts. In this paper we advocate the use of experiments and demonstrations as aids to achieving these goals. A number of demonstrations...

Preparing medical students for obstetrics and gynecology milestone level one: a description of a pilot curriculum

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helen Morgan

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Background: The implementation of the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME Milestones in the field of obstetrics and gynecology has arrived with Milestones Level One defined as the level expected of an incoming first-year resident. Purpose: We designed, implemented, and evaluated a 4-week elective for fourth-year medical school students, which utilized a multimodal approach to teaching and assessing the Milestones Level One competencies. Methods: The 78-hour curriculum utilized traditional didactic lectures, flipped classroom active learning sessions, a simulated paging curriculum, simulation training, embalmed cadaver anatomical dissections, and fresh-frozen cadaver operative procedures. We performed an assessment of student knowledge and surgical skills before and after completion of the course. Students also received feedback on their assessment and management of eight simulated paging scenarios. Students completed course content satisfaction surveys at the completion of each of the 4 weeks. Results: Students demonstrated improvement in knowledge and surgical skills at the completion of the course. Paging confidence trended toward improvement at the completion of the course. Student satisfaction was high for all of the course content, and the active learning components of the curriculum (flipped classroom, simulation, and anatomy sessions had higher scores than the traditional didactics in all six categories of our student satisfaction survey. Conclusions: This pilot study demonstrates a practical approach for preparing fourth-year medical students for the expectations of Milestones Level One in obstetrics and gynecology. This curriculum can serve as a framework as medical schools and specific specialties work to meet the first steps of the ACGME's Next Accreditation System.

MIV Project: Mission scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

1997-01-01

Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

2005-09-30

Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

2003-01-01

The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

Capturing readiness to learn and collaboration as explored with an interprofessional simulation scenario: A mixed-methods research study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rossler, Kelly L; Kimble, Laura P

2016-01-01

Didactic lecture does not lend itself to teaching interprofessional collaboration. High-fidelity human patient simulation with a focus on clinical situations/scenarios is highly conducive to interprofessional education. Consequently, a need for research supporting the incorporation of interprofessional education with high-fidelity patient simulation based technology exists. The purpose of this study was to explore readiness for interprofessional learning and collaboration among pre-licensure health professions students participating in an interprofessional education human patient simulation experience. Using a mixed methods convergent parallel design, a sample of 53 pre-licensure health professions students enrolled in nursing, respiratory therapy, health administration, and physical therapy programs within a college of health professions participated in high-fidelity human patient simulation experiences. Perceptions of interprofessional learning and collaboration were measured with the revised Readiness for Interprofessional Learning Scale (RIPLS) and the Health Professional Collaboration Scale (HPCS). Focus groups were conducted during the simulation post-briefing to obtain qualitative data. Statistical analysis included non-parametric, inferential statistics. Qualitative data were analyzed using a phenomenological approach. Pre- and post-RIPLS demonstrated pre-licensure health professions students reported significantly more positive attitudes about readiness for interprofessional learning post-simulation in the areas of team work and collaboration, negative professional identity, and positive professional identity. Post-simulation HPCS revealed pre-licensure nursing and health administration groups reported greater health collaboration during simulation than physical therapy students. Qualitative analysis yielded three themes: "exposure to experiential learning," "acquisition of interactional relationships," and "presence of chronology in role preparation

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

Science.gov (United States)

Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

2015-11-01

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

2010-01-01

The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

Scenarios of future energy intensities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

Stability of distributed MPC in an intersection scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Sprodowski, T.; Pannek, J.

2015-11-01

The research topic of autonomous cars and the communication among them has attained much attention in the last years and is developing quickly. Among others, this research area spans fields such as image recognition, mathematical control theory, communication networks, and sensor fusion. We consider an intersection scenario where we divide the shared road space in different cells. These cells form a grid. The cars are modelled as an autonomous multi-agent system based on the Distributed Model Predictive Control algorithm (DMPC). We prove that the overall system reaches stability using Optimal Control for each multi-agent and demonstrate that by numerical results.

Creating student awareness to improve cultural competence: creating the critical incident.

Science.gov (United States)

Morell, Venita W; Sharp, Penny C; Crandall, Sonia J

2002-09-01

Teaching medical students to recognize the need for cultural competence and accept their shortcomings in this area is a challenge. A simulated patient scenario was developed to address this challenge. The objective of the simulation is to enhance students' readiness to learn by moving them from 'unconscious incompetence' to 'conscious incompetence'. The patient scenario presents a Cherokee Indian woman with a complaint of abnormal menstrual bleeding who is resistant to gynaecologic care from male providers. A faculty member facilitates a small-group videotape review of student interviews. As students discuss their encounters, they realize they 'misdiagnose' and mishandle the interview. They are confronted by their inability to recognize cultural cues and the impact they may have on health outcomes and begin to question whether cultural beliefs are affecting the care of other patients. This simulation creates an eye-opening situation that must be handled carefully. This activity is an effective method to create awareness in students who feel they 'know all this stuff.'

Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

Science.gov (United States)

Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

2015-04-01

established precipitation-ETo covariations are used to inform the scenario construction process. Additionally, the back-tracking of extreme flows from driving scenarios allows for a diagnosis of the physical responses to climate change scenarios. The method is demonstrated through the application of scenarios from 10 Regional Climate Models,21 Global Climate Models and selected catchments in central Belgium. Reference Ntegeka, V., Baguis, P., Roulin, E., & Willems, P. (2014). Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments. Journal of Hydrology, 508, 307-321.

Energy scenarios for the 21. century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauerman, V.

2002-01-01

The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

2010-01-01

Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

2016-01-01

Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vanessa M Adams

Full Text Available Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20% in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not. We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100% that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario

The use of virtual patients to teach medical students history taking and communication skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Stevens, Amy; Hernandez, Jonathan; Johnsen, Kyle; Dickerson, Robert; Raij, Andrew; Harrison, Cyrus; DiPietro, Meredith; Allen, Bryan; Ferdig, Richard; Foti, Sebastian; Jackson, Jonathan; Shin, Min; Cendan, Juan; Watson, Robert; Duerson, Margaret; Lok, Benjamin; Cohen, Marc; Wagner, Peggy; Lind, D Scott

2006-06-01

At most institutions, medical students learn communication skills through the use of standardized patients (SPs), but SPs are time and resource expensive. Virtual patients (VPs) may offer several advantages over SPs, but little data exist regarding the use of VPs in teaching communication skills. Therefore, we report our initial efforts to create an interactive virtual clinical scenario of a patient with acute abdominal pain to teach medical students history-taking and communication skills. In the virtual scenario, a life-sized VP is projected on the wall of an examination room. Before the virtual encounter, the student reviews patient information on a handheld tablet personal computer, and they are directed to take a history and develop a differential diagnosis. The virtual system includes 2 networked personal computers (PCs), 1 data projector, 2 USB2 Web cameras to track the user's head and hand movement, a tablet PC, and a microphone. The VP is programmed with specific answers and gestures in response to questions asked by students. The VP responses to student questions were developed by reviewing videotapes of students' performances with real SPs. After obtaining informed consent, 20 students underwent voice recognition training followed by a videotaped VP encounter. Immediately after the virtual scenario, students completed a technology and SP questionnaire (Maastricht Simulated Patient Assessment). All participants had prior experience with real SPs. Initially, the VP correctly recognized approximately 60% of the student's questions, and improving the script depth and variability of the VP responses enhanced most incorrect voice recognition. Student comments were favorable particularly related to feedback provided by the virtual instructor. The overall student rating of the virtual experience was 6.47 +/- 1.63 (1 = lowest, 10 = highest) for version 1.0 and 7.22 +/- 1.76 for version 2.0 (4 months later) reflecting enhanced voice recognition and other

Syria and Iran: what next? Three potential scenarios; Syrie, Iran: et maintenant? Trois scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tertrais, Bruno [Fondation pour la recherche strategique, 4 bis rue des Patures 75016 Paris (France)

2013-10-15

Now that the United Nations resolution has been voted, the most complicated task begins: ensuring that Syria entirely and definitively gets rid of its chemical arsenal, which unfortunately has every chance of enduring. In this respect three scenarios are possible, each of which would have different repercussions for the region, notably regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, which is now being considered in a new light following Hassan Rohani's charm offensive. Yet, these consequences could also have a profound and lasting effect on the relationship between the United States and its allies. In the first scenario the agreement with Syria will be applied in a satisfactory manner, and could serve as a positive example to Iran, which might be more inclined to signing a nuclear deal. To date, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Guide, has been wary of the ongoing negotiations, considering that it is impossible to trust the Western States whose sole objective is the downfall of the Iranian regime. Russia, buoyed by its new role in the region, would contribute in a more constructive manner to the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue... Care must be taken, however, as Iran could just as well conclude as a result of the events of the summer of 2013, particularly from U.S. procrastination, that Western States are not willing to use force in the Middle East, and thus on the contrary draw out the negotiations without fearing the possibility of a U.S. strike. According to the second scenario, Syria will not implement the agreement, the crisis will be renewed, and will end with a Western strike, most probably without a U.N. mandate. This scenario would boost the confidence of U.S. allies in the region, who have a tendency to doubt the United States' determination to defend them. This could be seen as a warning to Iran, but the lessons that Iran would take from this scenario would undoubtedly depend on the balance of power in Tehran at the time: the moderates would push for a deal to avoid

ICT-Supported, Scenario-Based Learning in Preclinical Veterinary Science Education: Quantifying Learning Outcomes and Facilitating the Novice-Expert Transition

Science.gov (United States)

Seddon, Jennifer M.; McDonald, Brenda; Schmidt, Adele L.

2012-01-01

Problem and/or scenario-based learning is often deployed in preclinical education and training as a means of: (a) developing students' capacity to respond to authentic, real-world problems; (b) facilitating integration of knowledge across subject areas, and; (c) increasing motivation for learning. Six information and communication technology (ICT)…

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-10-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re

Demonstrating Operating System Principles via Computer Forensics Exercises

Science.gov (United States)

Duffy, Kevin P.; Davis, Martin H., Jr.; Sethi, Vikram

2010-01-01

We explore the feasibility of sparking student curiosity and interest in the core required MIS operating systems course through inclusion of computer forensics exercises into the course. Students were presented with two in-class exercises. Each exercise demonstrated an aspect of the operating system, and each exercise was written as a computer…

Basic airway skills acquisition using the American College of Surgeons/Association for Surgical Education medical student simulation-based surgical skills curriculum: Initial results.

Science.gov (United States)

Muratore, Sydne; Kim, Michael; Olasky, Jaisa; Campbell, Andre; Acton, Robert

2017-02-01

The ACS/ASE Medical Student Simulation-Based Skills Curriculum was developed to standardize medical student training. This study aims to evaluate the feasibility and validity of implementing the basic airway curriculum. This single-center, prospective study of medical students participating in the basic airway module from 12/2014-3/2016 consisted of didactics, small-group practice, and testing in a simulated clinical scenario. Proficiency was determined by a checklist of skills (1-15), global score (1-5), and letter grade (NR-needs review, PS-proficient in simulation scenario, CP-proficient in clinical scenario). A proportion of students completed pre/post-test surveys regarding experience, satisfaction, comfort, and self-perceived proficiency. Over 16 months, 240 students were enrolled with 98% deemed proficient in a simulated or clinical scenario. Pre/post-test surveys (n = 126) indicated improvement in self-perceived proficiency by 99% of learners. All students felt moderately to very comfortable performing basic airway skills and 94% had moderate to considerable satisfaction after completing the module. The ACS/ASE Surgical Skills Curriculum is a feasible and effective way to teach medical students basic airway skills using simulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schrattenholzer, L.

2005-01-01

The Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) develops policy-relevant global and world-regional energy perspectives. The basic premise of the ECS's research program is a global trend of d ecarbonization . Firstly, decarbonization includes a trend toward ever-greater efficiency, or ever less waste, in society's use of energy resources. Secondly, it includes a trend towards less carbon-intensive fossil fuels (e.g., from coal toward natural gas) and, further, to non-fossil fuels, especially renewable energy carriers. Technological change is generally regarded as one of the key drivers of sustained economic growth. Long-term energy scenarios developed at IIASA and elsewhere show that, depending on key assumptions on drivers such as population, economic growth and technological development, global energy development can be environmentally unsustainable. First, energy development might not lead to stabilizing greenhouse concentrations and might thus have significant negative impacts on the global climate. In addition, some, especially coal-intensive, scenarios might lead to levels of acid deposition at which significant damage to sensitive ecosystems is expected to occur in Europe and, even more so, in Asia. A continuation of the observed historical long-term trends of decarbonization, dematerialization, and energy efficiency improvements might therefore not be sufficient to achieve sustainable growth. Targeted technological development aiming at accelerating decarbonization, dematerialization, and/or efficiency improvement may be one of the most effective means for reconciling economic growth with global environmental objectives. This might require a step-up in investments in R and D and in the demonstration of technologies so as to stimulate both learning-by-searching and learning-by-doing. In this presentation, global E3 scenarios will be summarized in the following three groups: Non

Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

2012-01-01

Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

USING UML SCENARIOS IN B2B SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Jakimi

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Scenarios has become a popular technique for requirements elicitation and specification building. Since scenarios capture only partial descriptions of the system behavior, an approach for scenario composition and/or integration is needed to produce more complete specifications. The Unified Modeling Language (UML, which has become a standard notation for object-oriented modeling, provides a suitable framework for scenario acquisition using Use Case diagrams and Sequence or Collaboration diagrams. In this paper, we suggest an algorithmic and tool support for composing and integrating scenarios that are represented in form of sequence diagrams. We suggest four operators (;: sequential operator, ||: concurrent operator, ?: conditional operator and  * :iteration operator to compose a set of scenarios that describe a use case of a given system. In this paper, we suggest also to apply the scenario approach to B2B systems (Business to Business. We propose to develop B2B systems as a three activities process deriving formal specifications and code skeletons from UML scenarios. Activities of this proposed process are generally automatic and are supported by a set of developed algorithms and tools.

Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jon P. Sadler

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besseghir, K.

2013-06-01

The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Besseghir, K.

2013-06-15

The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

Conditional steering under the von Neumann scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Karmakar, Sumana; Sarkar, Debasis; Mukherjee, Amit; Bhattacharya, Some Sankar; Roy, Arup

2017-08-01

In Phys. Lett. A 166, 293 (1992), 10.1016/0375-9601(92)90711-T, Popescu and Rohrlich characterized nonlocality of pure n -partite entangled systems by studying bipartite violation of local realism when n -2 number of parties perform projective measurements on their particles. A pertinent question in this scenario is whether similar characterization is possible for n -partite mixed entangled states also. In the present work we have followed an analogous approach so as to explore whether given a tripartite mixed entangled state the conditional bipartite states obtained by performing projective measurement on the third party demonstrate a weaker form of nonlocality, quantum steering. We also compare this phenomenon of conditional steering with existing notions of tripartite correlations.

Current scenario

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

A Demonstration and a Souvenir

Science.gov (United States)

Lentz, Randy

1978-01-01

Describes an activity using interchangeable, preset tool holders to provide a demonstration for parents or students attending a school's open house session that produces a small souvenir (an aluminum mini-chalice) for them. A procedure sheet for the school's individual lathe and specification diagrams for making the cup are provided. (TA)

Evaluation of waste treatment technologies by LLWDDD [Low-Level Waste Disposal Development and Demonstration] Programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennerly, J.M.; Williams, L.C.; Dole, L.R.; Genung, R.K.

1987-01-01

Waste treatments are divided into four categories: (1) volume reduction; (2) conditioning to improve waste form performance; (3) segregation to achieve waste reduction; and (4) separation to remove radioactive (or hazardous) constituents. Two waste treatment demonstrations are described. In the first, volume reduction by mechanical means was achieved during the supercompaction of 300 55-gal drums of solid waste at ORNL. In the second demonstration, conditioning of waste through immobilization and packaging to improve the performance of the waste form is being evaluated. The final section of this paper describes potential scenarios for the management of uranium-contaminated wastes at the Y-12 Plant in Oak Ridge and emphasizes where demonstrations of treatment technology will be needed to implement the scenarios. Separation and thermal treatment are identified as the principal means for treating these wastes. 15 figs

Disposal of infective waste: demonstrated information and actions taken by nursing and medical students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adenícia Custodia Silva Souza

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The inappropriate disposal of infectious waste generates occupational and environmental risks, representing the main cause of accidents with biological material. The aim of the present study was to verify the knowledge and the practice regarding the disposal of infectious waste among nursing and medical undergraduate students at a public university in the state of Goiás. Data were collected with the application of a questionnaire. The respondent students were observed in their practice and data were recorded in a checklist. Nursing students presented greater knowledge than medical students on the disposal of contaminated gloves (x²; p<0.001, as well as on the disposal of sharp cutting instruments (p=0.001. Contaminated gloves were disposed of into bags for common waste both by the nursing and the medical students. Results evidenced that the knowledge of students on the disposal of infectious waste was poor and insufficient to ensure its application to practice.

Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Sayers, Nicola

2011-01-01

Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

Scenario analysis to account for photovoltaic generation uncertainty in distribution grid reconfiguration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chittur Ramaswamy, Parvathy; Deconinck, Geert; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

2013-01-01

This paper considers hourly reconfiguration of a low voltage distribution network with the objectives of minimizing power loss and voltage deviation. The uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation which in turn will affect the optimum configuration is tackled with the help of scenario analysis. ......-dominated solutions, demonstrating their trade-offs. Finally, the best compromise solution can be selected depending on the decision maker's requirement....

Point-of-view writing: A method for increasing medical students' empathy, identification and expression of emotion, and insight.

Science.gov (United States)

Shapiro, Johanna; Rucker, Lloyd; Boker, John; Lie, Desiree

2006-03-01

Although interest exists among medical educators in using writing that reflects on clinical experience to enhance medical students' communication skills, empathy, and overall professionalism, little empirical research documents the value of this approach. This study explored whether students trained in one type of writing would first demonstrate increased awareness of emotional aspects of a clinical encounter in their writing; and second, be evaluated more positively in an OSCE situation by standardized patients. Ninety-two students were assigned to either a point-of-view writing or a clinical reasoning condition as part of a second year doctoring course. At the end of the year, students were evaluated in an OSCE format on 3 cases, and completed a writing assignment about an ER death from cardiac arrest. Student essays were scored according to presence or absence of various themes. A linguistic analysis of the essays was also performed. Point-of-view and clinical reasoning group scores were compared on both measures, as well as on the standardized patient OSCE ratings. Students trained in point-of-view writing demonstrated significantly more awareness of emotional and spiritual aspects of a paper case in a writing assignment than did students trained in clinical reasoning. By contrast, students in the clinical reasoning group were more likely to distance from the scenario. The two groups did not differ on SP OSCE ratings. Training in point-of-view writing can improve medical students' written skills on certain affective dimensions. It is not clear that these skills can translate into clinical behavior.

ESC Track Fusion Demonstration Tool for Distributed Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, C.; Degraaf, E.; Perry, R.; Diaz, R.

A key requirement of future net-centric Space Situational Awareness systems development and operations will be decentralized operations, including multi-level distributed data fusion. Raytheon has developed a demonstration for ESC 850 ELSG/NS that fuses sensor-supplied tracks in a dense resident space object (RSO) environment. The demonstration use the state vector and covariance input data from single pass orbit solutions and applies track-to-track correlation algorithms to fuse the individual tracks into composite orbits. Platform independent Java technology and an agent-based software design using asynchronous inter-process communications was used in the demonstration tool development. The tool has been tested against a simulated scenario corresponding to the future 100,000+ object catalog environment. Ten days of simulated data from Fylingdales, Shemya, Eglin, and a future Space Fence sensor were generated for a co-orbiting family of 122 sun-synchronous objects between 700 and 800 km altitude from the NASA simulated small debris for 2015. The selected set exceeds the average object densities for the 100,000+ RSO environment, and provides a scenario similar to an evolved breakup where the debris has had time to disperse. The demo produced very good results using fast and simple astrodynamic models. A total of 16678 input tracks were fused, with less than 1.6% being misassociated. Pure tracks were generated for 65% of the 122 truth objects, and 97% of the objects had a misassociation rate tool that can be used to assess current breakups such as the Chinese ASAT event.

Learning to deal with crisis in the home: Part 2 - preparing preregistration students.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibson, Caroline E; Dickson, Caroline; Lawson, Bill; McMillan, Ailsa; Kelly, Helena

2015-12-01

The global shift of health care is from acute services to community and primary care. Therefore, registrants must be prepared to work effectively within diverse settings. This article is the second in a series discussing the preparation of nurses for contemporary health-care challenges in the community. In it, we outline the design, implementation, and evaluation of simulated emergency scenarios within an honours degree-level, pre-registration nursing curriculum in Scotland. Over 3 years, 99 final-year students participated in interactive sessions focusing on recognition and management of the deteriorating patient and emergency care. Clinical scenarios were designed and delivered collaboratively with community practitioners. Debriefing challenged the students to reflect on learning and transferability of skills of clinical reasoning and care management to the community context. Students considered the scenarios to be realistic and perceived that their confidence had increased. Development of such simulation exercises is worthy of further debate in education and practice.

Complicating ‘student behaviour’

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Millei, Zsuzsa; Petersen, Eva Bendix

2015-01-01

, feel and do? In this exploration, we theorise ‘behaviour’ as learning and illustrate the constitution of ‘learner subjectivities’. Drawing on two case scenarios, we explore how children accomplish themselves as learners and how this accomplishment links the production of subjectivity and embodied......When educators consider ‘student behaviour’, they usually think about ‘problem behaviour’ such as disruption or defiance. This limited and limiting view of ‘student behaviour’ not only fails to acknowledge children as educational actors in a wider sense, but also narrowly positions educators...

Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Johns, Kenneth

2004-01-01

.... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

Evaluation of the McMahon Competence Assessment Instrument for Use with Midwifery Students During a Simulated Shoulder Dystocia.

Science.gov (United States)

McMahon, Erin; Jevitt, Cecilia; Aronson, Barbara

2018-03-01

Intrapartum emergencies occur infrequently but require a prompt and competent response from the midwife to prevent morbidity and mortality of the woman, fetus, and newborn. Simulation provides the opportunity for student midwives to develop competence in a safe environment. The purpose of this study was to determine the inter-rater reliability of the McMahon Competence Assessment Instrument (MCAI) for use with student midwives during a simulated shoulder dystocia scenario. A pilot study using a nonprobability convenience sample was used to evaluate the MCAI. Content validity indices were calculated for the individual items and the overall instrument using data from a panel of expert reviewers. Fourteen student midwives consented to be video recorded while participating in a simulated shoulder dystocia scenario. Three faculty raters used the MCAI to evaluate the student performance. These quantitative data were used to determine the inter-rater reliability of the MCAI. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to assess the inter-rater reliability of MCAI scores between 2 or more raters. The ICC was 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.96). Fleiss's kappa was calculated to determine the inter-rater reliability for individual items. Twenty-three of the 42 items corresponded to excellent strength of agreement. This study demonstrates a method to determine the inter-rater reliability of a competence assessment instrument to be used with student midwives. Data produced by this study were used to revise and improve the instrument. Additional research will further document the inter-rater reliability and can be used to determine changes in student competence. Valid and reliable methods of assessment will encourage the use of simulation to efficiently develop the competence of student midwives. © 2018 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

2013-01-01

Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

2000-02-14

The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

An Activity for Demonstrating the Concept of a Neural Circuit

Science.gov (United States)

Kreiner, David S.

2012-01-01

College students in two sections of a general psychology course participated in a demonstration of a simple neural circuit. The activity was based on a neural circuit that Jeffress proposed for localizing sounds. Students in one section responded to a questionnaire prior to participating in the activity, while students in the other section…

SIMULATIONS OF THE MAGELLANIC STREAM IN A FIRST INFALL SCENARIO

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besla, G.; Hernquist, L.; Keres, D.; Kallivayalil, N.; Van der Marel, R. P.; Cox, T. J.

2010-01-01

Recent high-precision proper motions from the Hubble Space Telescope suggest that the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds (LMC and SMC, respectively) are either on their first passage or on an eccentric long period (>6 Gyr) orbit about the Milky Way (MW). This differs markedly from the canonical picture in which the Clouds travel on a quasi-periodic orbit about the MW (period of ∼2 Gyr). Without a short-period orbit about the MW, the origin of the Magellanic Stream, a young (1-2 Gyr old) coherent stream of H I gas that trails the Clouds ∼150 0 across the sky, can no longer be attributed to stripping by MW tides and/or ram pressure stripping by MW halo gas. We propose an alternative formation mechanism in which material is removed by LMC tides acting on the SMC before the system is accreted by the MW. We demonstrate the feasibility and generality of this scenario using an N-body/smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulation with cosmologically motivated initial conditions constrained by the observations. Under these conditions, we demonstrate that it is possible to explain the origin of the Magellanic Stream in a first infall scenario. This picture is generically applicable to any gas-rich dwarf galaxy pair infalling toward a massive host or interacting in isolation.

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

2005-02-01

This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

Shell energy scenarios to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

1996-01-01

This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

Using video-taped examples of standardized patient to teach medical students taking informed consent.

Science.gov (United States)

Habibi Khorasani, Shirin; Ebrahimi, Sedigheh

2015-04-01

Medical student should be trained in medical ethics and one of the most essential issues in this field is taking informed consents. In this research, we compared the effect of effectiveness of teaching methods on students' ability intaking informed consent from patients. This semi-experimental study was carried out on fifty eight subjects from the 4th-year students  of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences who attended in medical ethics coursebefore their 'clinical clerkship'training.Method of sampling was census and students were randomly allocated into two groups of control group(n=28) was trained in traditional lecture-based class and the case groupnamed as A1(n=22) were taught by video-taped examples of standardized patient.Then A1 group attended in traditional lecture-based classes named as A2. The groups were evaluated in terms the ability of recognition of ethical issuesthrough the scenario based ethical examination before and after each training. Scenarios were related to the topics ofinformed consent. Data were analyzed by SPSS 14 software using descriptive statistics and anovatest.P-Value less than 0.05 was considered as significant. The mean scores results of A2, A1and B groupwere found to be7.21 , 5.91 and 5.73 out of 8,respectively. Comparison between the groups demonstrated that the ability of taking informed consent was significantly higher in A2 group (plecture-based teaching is still of great value in teaching medical ethics, but when combined with standardized patient, the outcome will be much better.it should be considered that mixed methodsof teaching should be used together for better result.

Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

2001-01-01

What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...

Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

2011-12-01

A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

Demand scenarios, worldwide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

1996-11-01

Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

Attack Trees for Practical Security Assessment: Ranking of Attack Scenarios with ADTool 2.0

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gadyatskaya, Olga; Jhawar, Ravi; Kordy, P.T.; Lounis, Karim; Mauw, Sjouke; Trujillo-Rasua, Rolando

2016-01-01

In this tool demonstration paper we present the ADTool2.0: an open-source software tool for design, manipulation and analysis of attack trees. The tool supports ranking of attack scenarios based on quantitative attributes entered by the user; it is scriptable; and it incorporates attack trees with

Medical Students Raising Concerns.

Science.gov (United States)

Druce, Maralyn R; Hickey, Andrea; Warrens, Anthony N; Westwood, Olwyn M R

2016-09-16

After a number of high-profile incidents and national reports, it has become clear that all health professionals and all medical students must be able to raise concerns about a colleague's behavior if this behavior puts patients, colleagues, or themselves at risk.Detailed evidence from medical students about their confidence to raise concerns is limited, together with examples of barriers, which impair their ability to do so. We describe a questionnaire survey of medical students in a single-center, examining self-reported confidence about raising concerns in a number of possible scenarios. Thematic analysis was applied to comments about barriers identified.Although 80% of respondents felt confident to report a patient safety issue, students were less confident around issues of probity, attitude, and conduct. This needs to be addressed to create clear mechanisms to raise concerns, as well as support for students during the process.

A large-scale mass casualty simulation to develop the non-technical skills medical students require for collaborative teamwork.

Science.gov (United States)

Jorm, Christine; Roberts, Chris; Lim, Renee; Roper, Josephine; Skinner, Clare; Robertson, Jeremy; Gentilcore, Stacey; Osomanski, Adam

2016-03-08

There is little research on large-scale complex health care simulations designed to facilitate student learning of non-technical skills in a team-working environment. We evaluated the acceptability and effectiveness of a novel natural disaster simulation that enabled medical students to demonstrate their achievement of the non-technical skills of collaboration, negotiation and communication. In a mixed methods approach, survey data were available from 117 students and a thematic analysis undertaken of both student qualitative comments and tutor observer participation data. Ninety three per cent of students found the activity engaging for their learning. Three themes emerged from the qualitative data: the impact of fidelity on student learning, reflexivity on the importance of non-technical skills in clinical care, and opportunities for collaborative teamwork. Physical fidelity was sufficient for good levels of student engagement, as was sociological fidelity. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the simulation in allowing students to reflect upon and evidence their acquisition of skills in collaboration, negotiation and communication, as well as situational awareness and attending to their emotions. Students readily identified emerging learning opportunities though critical reflection. The scenarios challenged students to work together collaboratively to solve clinical problems, using a range of resources including interacting with clinical experts. A large class teaching activity, framed as a simulation of a natural disaster is an acceptable and effective activity for medical students to develop the non-technical skills of collaboration, negotiation and communication, which are essential to team working. The design could be of value in medical schools in disaster prone areas, including within low resource countries, and as a feasible intervention for learning the non-technical skills that are needed for patient safety.

Passengers' perception of the safety demonstration on board an aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Ruenruoy, Ratchada

The cabin safety demonstration on board an aircraft is one of the methods to provide safety information for passengers before aircraft takeoff. However, passengers' enthusiasm toward safety demonstrations is normally low. Therefore, the study of passengers' perception toward safety briefings on board an aircraft is important in increasing the safety awareness for the travelling public on commercial aircraft. A survey was distributed to measure the perceptions of Middle Tennessee State University (MTSU) faculty and staff, Aerospace students, and international students who have traveled in the last year. It was generally found that watching the cabin safety demonstration before aircraft takeoff was believed to be important for passengers. However, the attention to the safety demonstration remained low because the safety briefings were not good enough in terms of clear communication, particularly in the recorded audio demonstration and the live safety demonstration methods of briefing.

EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

2008-01-01

The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges...

A low-cost approach for rapidly creating demonstration models for hands-on learning

Science.gov (United States)

Kinzli, Kristoph-Dietrich; Kunberger, Tanya; O'Neill, Robert; Badir, Ashraf

2018-01-01

Demonstration models allow students to readily grasp theory and relate difficult concepts and equations to real life. However drawbacks of using these demonstration models are that they are can be costly to purchase from vendors or take a significant amount of time to build. These two limiting factors can pose a significant obstacle for adding demonstrations to the curriculum. This article presents an assignment to overcome these obstacles, which has resulted in 36 demonstration models being added to the curriculum. The article also presents the results of student performance on course objectives as a result of the developed models being used in the classroom. Overall, significant improvement in student learning outcomes, due to the addition of demonstration models, has been observed.

Wounded Healers: Graduate Students with Histories of Trauma in a Family Violence Course

Science.gov (United States)

Zosky, Diane L.

2013-01-01

Social work students are witness to a variety of challenges from course content through scenarios, videos, role-plays, and field practice. Students may be vulnerable to experiencing vicarious traumatization from this exposure. Some students, however, may have personal histories of trauma and may therefore experience posttraumatic stress reactions…

When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.

2010-01-01

In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-03-01

This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane

2013-01-01

Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane, E-mail: praroberta@uol.com.br, E-mail: gdjian@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2013-07-01

Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

University Students' Willingness to Assist Fellow Students Who Experience Alcohol-Related Facial Flushing to Reduce Their Drinking.

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Lanyan; Yuen, Lok-Wa; Newman, Ian M; Shell, Duane F

2018-04-25

This study explored bystanders’ willingness to help a friend who flushes when drinking to reduce his/her drinking. Alcohol-related facial flushing is an indicator of an inherited variant enzyme, aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH), that impairs alcohol metabolism and increases drinkers’ lifetime risk of certain aerodigestive cancers. Individuals who flush should reduce their alcohol exposure, but they may continue to drink if social pressures and rules of etiquette make not drinking socially risky. The analysis used data from 2912 undergraduate students from 13 universities in southwestern, central and northeastern China from a survey asking how they respond to someone’s flushing in various scenarios. Latent class analysis grouped students by similar responses to flushing. A multinomial logistic regression explored how class membership was associated with knowledge, drinking status, and reactions to one’s own flushing. Five classes were derived from the latent class analysis, ranging from always intervene to mostly hesitate to help; in between were classes of students who were willing to help in some scenarios and hesitant in other scenarios. Only 11.6% students knew the connection between facial flushing and impaired alcohol metabolism, and knowledgeable students were somewhat more likely to assist when they saw someone flushing. In the absence of knowledge, other factors—such as drinking status, the gender of the bystander, the gender of the person who flushed, and degree of friendship with the person who flushed—determined how willing a person was to help someone reduce or stop drinking. Class membership was predicted by knowledge, gender, drinking status, and reactions to one’s own flushing. Of these 4 factors, knowledge and reactions to one’s own flushing could be influenced through alcohol education programs. It will take some time for alcohol education to catch up to and change social and cultural patterns of drinking. Meanwhile, motivational

The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

2013-01-01

After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

2016-05-01

Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Climate change impact assessment on flow regime by incorporating spatial correlation and scenario uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

2017-07-01

Flooding risk is increasing in many parts of the world and may worsen under climate change conditions. The accuracy of predicting flooding risk relies on reasonable projection of meteorological data (especially rainfall) at the local scale. The current statistical downscaling approaches face the difficulty of projecting multi-site climate information for future conditions while conserving spatial information. This study presents a combined Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator and multi-site rainfall simulator RainSim (CLWRS) approach to investigate flow regimes under future conditions in the Kootenay Watershed, Canada. To understand the uncertainty effect stemming from different scenarios, the climate output is fed into a hydrologic model. The results showed different variation trends of annual peak flows (in 2080-2099) based on different climate change scenarios and demonstrated that the hydrological impact would be driven by the interaction between snowmelt and peak flows. The proposed CLWRS approach is useful where there is a need for projection of potential climate change scenarios.

Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2005-03-30

This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

Scenario development and evaluation for the NPP Krsko revised decommissioning program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levanat, I.; Lokner, V.; Subasic, D.

2004-01-01

adopted. The procedure relies on an integrated scenario timetable, in which decisive DP activities are charted side by side, together with the schedule of their annual expenses which will be used as input for the subsequent discounting and cash flow calculations. This finally led to three groups of scenarios consistent with the boundary conditions: (1) SID-96 scenarios (the required re-evaluation of the original SID strategy); (2) SID-15 scenarios in which all DP activities would be completed in 15 years or less; and (3) SID scenarios with dry storage of SF. The cash flow calculations demonstrated that the SF dry storage scenarios have the lowest discounted costs. Also, they provide the greatest confidence in timely realization of the SF disposal or export plans. In addition to a pair of 30-year dry storage scenarios (with the SF disposal or export), an option of 45-year SF storage was also introduced. Actually, the SID-30 and SID-45 scenarios can be viewed only as limiting cases of an entire range of the intermediate SF dry storage options. Therefore, the decision on the DP funding can reasonably be based upon the SID-45 cost estimates, possibly rounded upwards to an amount which would encompass some of the shorter variants too.(author)

ECRH and ECCD scenarios for W7-X

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laqua H.P.

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The main ECRH scenarios for the W7-X Stellarator are described. Both X2 (low and moderate densities and O2 scenarios (high density have been studied. Since O2 scenario cannot be realized without pre-heating, transition from X2 to O2 scenarios has been discussed. Due to a lack of Ohmic transformer, only ECCD is available for compensating the bootstrap current and for controlling the edge rotational transform value. The efficiency of ECCD for all main scenarios has been estimated. All simulations have been performed by a 1D transport code coupled self-consistently with ray-tracing code.

Methodology implementation for multi objective optimisation for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freynet, David

2016-01-01

according to their sensitivity to the defined objectives. This approach makes optimal scenarios interpretation easier, makes it possible to identify potential difficulties with the optimisation process, and then to provide recommendations on the use of the deployed methodology according to the problem type. The optimisation studies consider a fast reactor deployment scenario with plutonium recycling, which is inspired by studies carried out in the scope of the 2006 act for Waste Management. an illustration of the possibilities of this methodology is provided with this scenario, demonstrating the optimality of the scenario inspired by the studies that were carried out for the 2006 act, regarding stored fissile materials limitation. This result highlights the importance of dynamic plutonium management through MOX fuel usage during fast reactor deployment. (author) [fr

The role of revenge, denial, and terrorism distress in restoring just world beliefs: the impact of the 2008 Mumbai attacks on British and Indian students.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferguson, Neil; Kamble, Shanmukh V

2012-01-01

Just world beliefs for students (N = 413) from India and the United Kingdom were measured. The participants then read a scenario about the 2008 terrorist attacks on Mumbai. The participants were then assessed for terrorism distress and offered multiple strategies (revenge and denial) to restore their just world beliefs. The findings indicate that students resident in India along with those who hold strong just world beliefs felt more distress, held a greater desire for revenge, and demonstrated more denial than the British students and those who had weak beliefs in a just world. These results indicate the important role just world beliefs play in responding to the threat created by mass casualty terrorist attacks. The implications for just world theory are also discussed.

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this &apos

Development of Cyber Theater titled "PINOCCHIO" and Cyber Theater Scenario Language: CTSL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hiroshi Matsuda

2003-10-01

Full Text Available In Japan, most of children haven't read the Fairy Tales or tales of old Japan because the high technology video games are more exciting than most of picture books. But they must be effective to bring up the children's cultivation of aesthetic sensitivity. And we have heard from teachers of elementary schools that most of themes of computer education in school are the operation of Painting Tool or Game Software. To improve these problems and to aid the courses of computer-based education in elementary school, we developed new educational support tool named Cyber Theater. Cyber Theater provides the capability of easy making the 3D-CG animation of children's story by using Script language named CTSL (Cyber Theater Scenario Language. We hope schoolteachers will be able to use Cyber Tales as teaching materials in elementary schools. We also hope that upper-aged students (including junior high school students are able to make their original CG-animation stories as the Creative Lesson.

A Referential Communication Demonstration versus a Lecture-Only Control: Learning Benefits

Science.gov (United States)

Balch, William R.

2014-01-01

To evaluate a demonstration involving active and cooperative learning, 40 students in a cognitive psychology course and 132 students in an introductory psychology course completed a brief multiple-choice pretest on referential communication. Two days later, randomly assigned students either participated in a classroom referential communication…

OSCAAR calculations for the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Homma, Toshimitsu; Tomita, Kenichi

2000-10-01

This report presents the results obtained from the application of the accident consequence assessment code, called OSCAAR, developed in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute to the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2 organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The scenario relates to an inadvertent release of 131 I to atmosphere from the Hanford Purex Chemical Separations Plant on 2-5 September 1963. This exercise was used to test the atmospheric dispersion and deposition models and food chain transport models for 131 I in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainty with respect both to the part of the assessment and to the overall assessment. The OSCAAR food chain model performed relatively well, while the atmospheric dispersion and deposition calculations made using wind data at the release height and wind fields by simple interpolation of the surrounding surface wind data indicated limited capabilities. The Monte Carlo based uncertainty and sensitivity method linked with OSCAAR successfully demonstrated its usefulness in the scenario. The method presented here also allowed the determination of the parameters that have the most important impact in accident consequence assessments. (author)

OSCAAR calculations for the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Homma, Toshimitsu; Tomita, Kenichi [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Inoue, Yoshihisa [Visible Information Center Inc., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

2000-10-01

This report presents the results obtained from the application of the accident consequence assessment code, called OSCAAR, developed in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute to the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2 organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The scenario relates to an inadvertent release of {sup 131}I to atmosphere from the Hanford Purex Chemical Separations Plant on 2-5 September 1963. This exercise was used to test the atmospheric dispersion and deposition models and food chain transport models for {sup 131}I in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainty with respect both to the part of the assessment and to the overall assessment. The OSCAAR food chain model performed relatively well, while the atmospheric dispersion and deposition calculations made using wind data at the release height and wind fields by simple interpolation of the surrounding surface wind data indicated limited capabilities. The Monte Carlo based uncertainty and sensitivity method linked with OSCAAR successfully demonstrated its usefulness in the scenario. The method presented here also allowed the determination of the parameters that have the most important impact in accident consequence assessments. (author)

An Evaluation of a Unique Gatekeeper Training for Suicide Prevention of College Students: Demonstrating Effective Partnering within Student Affairs

Science.gov (United States)

House, Lisa A.; Lynch, Joseph F.; Bane, Mary

2013-01-01

For college students, suicide is the second leading cause of death. In this study, we evaluated a gatekeeper training suicide prevention program that emphasizes emotional connectivity with students in crisis and incorporates the collaborative efforts between Housing/Residential Programs and the Counseling Center. Participants consisted of graduate…

Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, L.D.D.

2013-01-01

This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

Demonstration Experiments with a Stirling Engine.

Science.gov (United States)

Deacon, Christopher G.; And Others

1994-01-01

Describes an investigation with the primary purpose of allowing students to generate and interpret a pressure/volume diagram of a Stirling engine. Explains how the Stirling engine can be used to demonstrate the principles of operation of a refrigerator and a heat pump. (DDR)

Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård

2013-01-01

Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...... play-throughs of the prototype. We then carried out a user study and ran statistical analyses to test if children would perceive the game scenarios as intended by scenario designers in terms of conflict....

Climate change scenario data for the national parks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, D.

2003-01-01

This report presents daily scenario data obtained from monthly time scale climate change scenarios. The scenarios were applied to a stochastic weather generator, a statistical tool that simulates daily weather data for a range of climates at a particular location. The weather generators simulate weather that is statistically similar to observed climate data from climate stations. They can also generate daily scenario data for monthly time scales. This low cost computational method offers site-specific, multi-year climate change scenarios at a daily temporal level. The data is useful for situations that rely on climate thresholds such as forest fire season, drought conditions, or recreational season length. Data sets for temperature, precipitation and frost days was provided for 3 national parks for comparative evaluations. Daily scenarios for other parks can be derived using global climate model (GCM) output data through the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS) weather generator program. tabs

Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gracceva, Francesco

2005-01-01

Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

Developing scenarios for the Norwegian travel industry 2025

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anniken Enger

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications. Findings – The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan. Practical implications – The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined. Originality/value – The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

British Students' Perceptions of Ethical Issues in International Marketing: An Empirical Investigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Amin, Sammy G.

1996-01-01

A survey investigated 122 British business students' perceptions of ethics in international marketing practices, particularly as they are affected by demographic characteristics. In response to 12 specific scenarios, students indicated relatively liberal attitudes. Implications for global marketing specialists and for business education are…

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, B.; Wun, N.; Scott, D.; Barrow, E.

2003-01-01

A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

Ontario demand response scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowlands, I.H.

2005-09-01

Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

Experiment and Modeling of ITER Demonstration Discharges in the DIII-D Tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Jin Myung; Doyle, E. J.; Ferron, J.R.; Holcomb, C.T.; Jackson, G.L.; Lao, L.L.; Luce, T.C.; Owen, Larry W.; Murakami, Masanori; Osborne, T.H.; Politzer, P.A.; Prater, R.; Snyder, P.B.

2011-01-01

DIII-D is providing experimental evaluation of 4 leading ITER operational scenarios: the baseline scenario in ELMing H-mode, the advanced inductive scenario, the hybrid scenario, and the steady state scenario. The anticipated ITER shape, aspect ratio and value of I/αB were reproduced, with the size reduced by a factor of 3.7, while matching key performance targets for β N and H 98 . Since 2008, substantial experimental progress was made to improve the match to other expected ITER parameters for the baseline scenario. A lower density baseline discharge was developed with improved stationarity and density control to match the expected ITER edge pedestal collisionality (ν* e ∼ 0.1). Target values for β N and H 98 were maintained at lower collisionality (lower density) operation without loss in fusion performance but with significant change in ELM characteristics. The effects of lower plasma rotation were investigated by adding counter-neutral beam power, resulting in only a modest reduction in confinement. Robust preemptive stabilization of 2/1 NTMs was demonstrated for the first time using ECCD under ITER-like conditions. Data from these experiments were used extensively to test and develop theory and modeling for realistic ITER projection and for further development of its optimum scenarios in DIII-D. Theory-based modeling of core transport (TGLF) with an edge pedestal boundary condition provided by the EPED1 model reproduces T e and T i profiles reasonably well for the 4 ITER scenarios developed in DIII-D. Modeling of the baseline scenario for low and high rotation discharges indicates that a modest performance increase of ∼ 15% is needed to compensate for the expected lower rotation of ITER. Modeling of the steady-state scenario reproduces a strong dependence of confinement, stability, and noninductive fraction (f NI ) on q 95 , as found in the experimental I p scan, indicating that optimization of the q profile is critical to simultaneously achieving the

Base case and perturbation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edmunds, T

1998-10-01

This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

Hazards study of environmental protection classified facilities. Scenarios analysis; Etude de dangers des ICPE. Analyse des scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seveque, J.L. [Cour d' Appel d' Amiens, 80 (France)

2006-04-15

This article describes the analysis and study of the possible impacts of accidents occurring at industrial facilities classified with respect to the environment protection. The operators of such facilities have to describe the possible risks and their consequences, the measures taken to prevent them and the level of residual risk. Therefore, it consists in calculating the consequences of all possible aggressions that a facility can undergo. The receptors are of 2 type: the human body (burns, asphyxia, intoxication, shock wave, projectile), and the surrounding equipments (fire, unconfined vapour cloud explosion (UVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), fireball, dispersion of toxic gases). Content: 1 - fire-type scenario: description, modeling of thermal effects, conclusion; 2 - UVCE-type scenario: description, Lannoy method (TNT equivalent), multi-energy method, conclusion; 3 - BLEVE-type scenario: description, modeling of overpressure effects, thermal effects of the fireball; 4 - toxic cloud scenario: modeling of a toxic cloud dispersion, effects and consequences; 5 - conclusions. (J.S.)

Palpability Support Demonstrated

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brønsted, Jeppe; Grönvall, Erik; Fors, David

2007-01-01

the situation. The concept of palpable computing, introduced by the PalCom project, denotes systems which support such understandability. In PalCom, a set of prototype scenarios provide input for an open software architecture and a conceptual framework for palpable computing. One of these prototype scenarios...... their configuration and cope with breakdown situations. The prototype implementation runs on a standard PC simulating the network layer and a first reference implementation has been made on the target embedded platform....

Privacy-Preserving Data Aggregation Protocol for Fog Computing-Assisted Vehicle-to-Infrastructure Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanan Chen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I communication enables moving vehicles to upload real-time data about road surface situation to the Internet via fixed roadside units (RSU. Thanks to the resource restriction of mobile vehicles, fog computation-enhanced V2I communication scenario has received increasing attention recently. However, how to aggregate the sensed data from vehicles securely and efficiently still remains open to the V2I communication scenario. In this paper, a light-weight and anonymous aggregation protocol is proposed for the fog computing-based V2I communication scenario. With the proposed protocol, the data collected by the vehicles can be efficiently obtained by the RSU in a privacy-preserving manner. Particularly, we first suggest a certificateless aggregate signcryption (CL-A-SC scheme and prove its security in the random oracle model. The suggested CL-A-SC scheme, which is of independent interest, can achieve the merits of certificateless cryptography and signcryption scheme simultaneously. Then we put forward the anonymous aggregation protocol for V2I communication scenario as one extension of the suggested CL-A-SC scheme. Security analysis demonstrates that the proposed aggregation protocol achieves desirable security properties. The performance comparison shows that the proposed protocol significantly reduces the computation and communication overhead compared with the up-to-date protocols in this field.

Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, T.-Y.; Yu, Oliver S.; Hsu, George Jyh-yih; Hsu, Fang-Ming; Sung, W.-N.

2009-01-01

This paper presents the results of a case study of applying a systematic and proven process of technology portfolio planning with the use of scenario analysis to renewable energy developments in Taiwan. The planning process starts with decision values of technology development based on a survey of society leaders. It then generates, based on expert opinions and literature search, a set of major technology alternatives, which in this study include: wind energy, photovoltaic, bio-energy, solar thermal power, ocean energy, and geothermal energy. Through a committee of technical experts with diversified professional backgrounds, the process in this study next constructs three scenarios ('Season in the Sun', 'More Desire than Energy', and 'Castle in the Air') to encompass future uncertainties in the relationships between the technology alternatives and the decision values. Finally, through a second committee of professionals, the process assesses the importance and risks of these alternative technologies and develops a general strategic plan for the renewable energy technology portfolio that is responsive and robust for the future scenarios. The most important contributions of this paper are the clear description of the systematic process of technology portfolio planning and scenario analysis, the detailed demonstration of their application through a case study on the renewable energy development in Taiwan, and the valuable results and insights gained from the application.

On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dessai, S.; Xianfu Lu; Risbey, J.S.

2005-01-01

Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. (author)

Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

2012-01-01

Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

Clinical judgment in reflective journals of prelicensure nursing students.

Science.gov (United States)

Bussard, Michelle E

2015-01-01

Clinical judgment is an essential skill needed by RNs. Employers expect new graduate nurses to enter the work-force with established clinical judgment skills. Therefore, nurse educators must ensure that prelicensure nursing students develop clinical judgment before graduation. This qualitative, interpretive description study reviewed the reflective journals of 30 prelicensure nursing students who participated in four progressive high-fidelity simulation (HFS) scenarios during a medical-surgical nursing course. Eight themes were identified in the reflective journals: (a) expectations about the patient, (b) recognition of a focused assessment, (c) interpretation of medications, laboratory data, and diagnostics, (d) communication with the patient, (e) collaboration and interprofessionalism, (f) prioritizing interventions, (g) skillfulness with interventions, and (h) incorporation of skills and information into real patient situations. This study indicated that reflective journaling following progressive HFS scenarios may be an effective teaching-learning strategy to assist prelicensure nursing students in the development of clinical judgment. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

Blended learning in ethics education: a survey of nursing students.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsu, Li-Ling

2011-05-01

Nurses are experiencing new ethical issues as a result of global developments and changes in health care. With health care becoming increasingly sophisticated, and countries facing challenges of graying population, ethical issues involved in health care are bound to expand in quantity and in depth. Blended learning rather as a combination of multiple delivery media designed to promote meaningful learning. Specifically, this study was focused on two questions: (1) the students' satisfaction and attitudes as members of a scenario-based learning process in a blended learning environment; (2) the relationship between students' satisfaction ratings of nursing ethics course and their attitudes in the blended learning environment. In total, 99 senior undergraduate nursing students currently studying at a public nursing college in Taiwan were invited to participate in this study. A cross-sectional survey design was adopted in this study. The participants were asked to fill out two Likert-scale questionnaire surveys: CAAS (Case Analysis Attitude Scale), and BLSS (Blended Learning Satisfaction Scale). The results showed what students felt about their blended learning experiences - mostly items ranged from 3.27-3.76 (the highest score is 5). Another self-assessment of scenario analysis instrument revealed the mean scores ranged from 2.87-4.19. Nearly 57.8% of the participants rated the course 'extremely helpful' or 'very helpful.' This study showed statistically significant correlations (r=0.43) between students' satisfaction with blended learning and case analysis attitudes. In addition, results testified to a potential of the blended learning model proposed in this study to bridge the gap between students and instructors and the one between students and their peers, which are typical of blended learning, and to create meaningful learning by employing blended pedagogical consideration in the course design. The use of scenario instruction enables students to develop critical

New reactors concepts and scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gandini, A.

2001-01-01

In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)