Implications of Future Water Use Efficiency for Ecohydrological Responses to Climate Change and Spatial Heterogeneity of Atmospheric CO2 in China

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Zhen Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available As the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 increases substantially, the spatial distribution of atmospheric CO2 should be considered when estimating the effects of CO2 on the carbon and water cycle coupling of terrestrial ecosystems. To evaluate this effect on future ecohydrological processes, the spatial-temporal patterns of CO2 were established over 1951 - 2099 according to the IPCC emission scenarios SRES A2 and SRES B1. Thereafter, water use efficiency (WUE was used (i.e., Net Primary Production/Evaportranspiration as an indicator to quantify the effects of climate change and uneven CO2 fertilization in China. We carried out several simulated experiments to estimate WUE under different future scenarios using a land process model (Integrated Biosphere Simulator, IBIS. Results indicated that the geographical distributions of averaged WUE have considerable differences under a heterogeneous atmospheric CO2 condition. Under the SRES A2 scenario, WUE decreased slightly with a 5% value in most areas of the southeastern and northwestern China during the 2050s, while decreasing by approximately 15% in southeastern China during the 2090s. During the period of the 2050s under SRES B1 scenario, the change rate of WUE was similar with that under SRES A2 scenario, but the WUE has a more moderate decreasing trend than that under the SRES A2 scenario. In all, the ecosystems in median and low latitude areas had a weakened effect on resisting extreme climate event such as drought. Conversely, the vegetation in a boreal forest had an enhanced buffering capability to tolerate drought events.

Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokimatsu, Koji; Konishi, Satoshi; Ishihara, Keiichi; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Yasuoka, Rieko; Nishio, Masahiro

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We modeled a zero emissions scenario based on the A1T scenario of IPCC-SRES. • We conducted global modeling by minimizing costs of energy, biomass, and materials. • A variety of advanced technology innovations were considered and incorporated. • Results suggest that zero emissions scenario may be possible in this century. • We revealed energy supply structure under the zero emissions scenarios. - Abstract: This study investigated zero emissions scenarios with following two originalities compared to various existing studies. One is that we based on A1T society of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenario) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compared to existing studies on those of B1 or B2. The second one is that various innovative technologies were considered and incorporated, such as biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and advanced nuclear technologies including hydrogen or synfuel production. We conducted global modeling over the period 2010–2150 in which energy, materials, and biomass and foods supply costs were minimized by linear programming. We found following features of energy supply structure in A1T scenario. Since the electric demand in A1T scenario in 2100 is two times larger than the others, (1) renewable energy which solely produce electricity, nuclear, and fossil energy with CCS (FECCS) especially coal are main sources of electricity, (2) renewable which can supply heat, namely BECCS and geothermal, satisfies the sector, and (3) hydrogen from coal is introduced in transport sector. It can be concluded that the zero emission energy systems with global economic growth will be possible, by development and deployment of ambitious advanced energy technologies.

Dynamics of combined forest damage risks for 21st century (SRES A1B, B1)

Science.gov (United States)

Panferov, Oleg; Merklein, Johannes; Sogachev, Andrey; Junghans, Udo; Ahrends, Bernd

2010-05-01

The ongoing climate change can result in increasing frequency of weather extremes (Leckebusch et al., 2008) which in turn can produce wide area forest damage (windthrows, droughts, insect attacks) within forest ecosystems in Europe. The probability and extent of damage, depend not only on a strength of a driving force itself but especially on combinations of effecting agents and their interactions with forest ecosystem structure and soil properties. The combined effect of several factors which are not the extremes themselves can lead to the biotic and/or abiotic damage so that the combination becomes an extreme event. As soon as a damage event occurs, the forest structure is changed. The changes in forest structure in their turn strengthen or inhibits the influence of different climatic factors thus increase or decrease the probability of the next damage event creating positive or negative feedbacks. To assess the roles of separate meteorological factors and their combinations in forest damage under present and future climatic conditions the coupled model was created in University of Goettingen, as a part of a Decision Support System (Jansen et al, 2008, Panferov et al., 2009). The model combines the 3D ABL Model SCADIS (Panferov and Sogachev, 2008) with modified soil hydrology model BROOK 90 (Federer, 2003, Ahrends et al. 2009) and the model of climate dependent biotic damage. The projected future developments of forest damage events in 21st Century were carried out under conditions of SRES scenarios A1B and B1; the present conditions were evaluated using the measured data of German Weather Service. Climate scenario data of coupled ECHAM5-MPIOM were downscaled by the regional climate model Climate Local Model (CLM) to the spatial resolution of 0.2° x 0.2° and temporal resolution of 24 hours. Using these data as input the small-scale coupled process based modeling was then carried out for example region of Solling, Germany calculating the water and energy balance

Estimating Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration in Rice Paddies as Influenced by Climate Change under Scenario A2 and B2 of an i-EPIC model of Thailand

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Noppol Arunrat

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Carbon sequestration in soils constitutes an important option that can be used to reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere and reduce environmental impacts. Soil organic carbon (SOC is both a source of carbon release and a sink for carbon sequestration. Our objectives in this study were to validate the interactive Environmental Policy Impact Calculator (i-EPIC model version 0509, as well as to estimate SOC sequestration under climate change scenarios A2 and B2 SRES emission scenarios in Thailand. The SOC estimated by i-EPIC was compared with data from the Office of Soil Resources Survey and Research, Land Development Department. The results indicated that performance testing of i-EPIC is able to estimate SOC. Validation of SOC proved to be satisfactory with a resulting root mean square error (RMSE % value of 34.60. The SOC content showed a decreasing trend under B2 and A2 climate scenarios (average 0.87% and 0.85%, respectively compared to the reference from 2007 (average 0.92%. Stepwise regression analysis also revealed that carbon from residue decomposition, biomass pool carbon, and the total change of the carbon pool were directly correlated with the SOC (R2= 0.99, p< 0.01. Furthermore, the change from rain supplied water to irrigation also resulted in an increase of carbon inputs but a decrease in the SOC sequestered during the 2007-2017 period. Regression analyses indicated that soil carbon sequestration responds linearly to carbon input. Significant changes in carbon input as well as decreases in SOC levels were observed as temperature and precipitation increased. Based on the testing and analysis, we concluded that i-EPIC is capable of reliably simulating effects of climate change on SOC sequestration. Based on the results, this knowledge and information can increase effectiveness in the promotion of integrated rice management for rice production in Thailand.

Co2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michelini, M.

2001-01-01

In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC [it

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-01

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO 2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The fundamental assumptions

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-15

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.; Carter, T.R.

2014-01-01

A suggestion for mapping the SRES illustrative scenarios onto the new scenarios framework of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) is presented. The mapping first compares storylines describing future socio-economic developments for SRES and SSPs.

Using dynamical downscaling to close the gap between global change scenarios and local permafrost dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stendel, Martin; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Christensen, Jens H.

2007-01-01

Even though we can estimate the zonation of present-day permafrost from deep-soil temperatures obtained from global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) by accounting for heat conduction in the frozen soil, it is impossible to explicitly resolve soil properties, vegetation......, in particular in mountainous regions. By using global climate change scenarios as driving fields, one can obtain permafrost dynamics in high temporal resolution on the order of years. For the 21st century under the IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2, we find an increase of mean annual ground temperature by up to 6 K...

Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

2013-04-01

The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc

Sectoral trends in global energy use and greenhouse gasemissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Price, Lynn; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Sinton, Jonathan; Worrell, Ernst; Zhou, Nan; Sathaye, Jayant; Levine, Mark

2006-07-24

In 2000, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a new set of baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). The SRES team defined four narrative storylines (A1, A2, B1 and B2) describing the relationships between the forces driving GHG and aerosol emissions and their evolution during the 21st century. The SRES reports emissions for each of these storylines by type of GHG and by fuel type to 2100 globally and for four world regions (OECD countries as of 1990, countries undergoing economic reform, developing countries in Asia, rest of world). Specific assumptions about the quantification of scenario drivers, such as population and economic growth, technological change, resource availability, land-use changes, and local and regional environmental policies, are also provided. End-use sector-level results for buildings, industry, or transportation or information regarding adoption of particular technologies and policies are not provided in the SRES. The goal of this report is to provide more detailed information on the SRES scenarios at the end use level including historical time series data and a decomposition of energy consumption to understand the forecast implications in terms of end use efficiency to 2030. This report focuses on the A1 (A1B) and B2 marker scenarios since they represent distinctly contrasting futures. The A1 storyline describes a future of very rapid economic growth, low population growth, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The B2 storyline describes a world with an emphasis on economic, social, and environmental sustainability, especially at the local and regional levels. It is a world with moderate population growth

Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

2012-01-01

Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

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Tuan B. Le

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Reginster, I.; Araújo, Miguel B.

2006-01-01

This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES......). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of land use change using various land use change models and the allocation of these aggregate quantities in space using spatially explicit rules. The spatial patterns...... are further downscaled from a resolution of 10 min to 250 m using statistical downscaling procedures. The scenarios include the major land use/land cover classes urban, cropland, grassland and forest land as well as introducing new land use classes such as bioenergy crops. The scenario changes are most...

Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change

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Yanlong Guo

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs, few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.

Effects of future climate change, CO2 enrichment, and vegetation structure variation on hydrological processes in China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Qiuan; Jiang, Hong; Peng, Changhui; Liu, Jinxun; Fang, Xiuqin; Wei, Xiaohua; Liu, Shirong; Zhou, Guomo

2012-01-01

Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.

Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

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A. Alessandri

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C. We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1 with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K.

Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B.

The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Calzadilla, Alvaro; Zhu, Tingju; Rehdanz, Katrin; Tol, Richard S J; Ringler, Claudia

2013-01-01

Two possible adaptation scenarios to climate change for Sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed under the SRES B2 scenario. The first scenario doubles the irrigated area in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, compared to the baseline, but keeps total crop area constant. The second scenario increases both rainfed

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

Science.gov (United States)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

2013-03-01

We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Lotze-Campen

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Reactive nitrogen (Nr is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, it is crucial to understand the long-term development of the global agricultural Nr cycle. For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the Nr cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines. Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the Nr applied to croplands was incorporated into plant biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all Nr in cropland plant biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the Nr cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7–9 in 2045 and 5–12 Tg in 2095. Reinforced Nr pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required.

Quantifying uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on river discharge in sub-catchments of the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Xu

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Quantitative evaluations of the impacts of climate change on water resources are primarily constrained by uncertainty in climate projections from GCMs. In this study we assess uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on river discharge in two catchments of the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins that feature contrasting climate regimes (humid and semi-arid. Specifically we quantify uncertainty associated with GCM structure from a subset of CMIP3 AR4 GCMs (HadCM3, HadGEM1, CCSM3.0, IPSL, ECHAM5, CSIRO, CGCM3.1, SRES emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, B2 and prescribed increases in global mean air temperature (1 °C to 6 °C. Climate projections, applied to semi-distributed hydrological models (SWAT 2005 in both catchments, indicate trends toward warmer and wetter conditions. For prescribed warming scenarios of 1 °C to 6 °C, linear increases in mean annual river discharge, relative to baseline (1961–1990, for the River Xiangxi and River Huangfuchuan are +9% and 11% per +1 °C respectively. Intra-annual changes include increases in flood (Q05 discharges for both rivers as well as a shift in the timing of flood discharges from summer to autumn and a rise (24 to 93% in dry season (Q95 discharge for the River Xiangxi. Differences in projections of mean annual river discharge between SRES emission scenarios using HadCM3 are comparatively minor for the River Xiangxi (13 to 17% rise from baseline but substantial (73 to 121% for the River Huangfuchuan. With one minor exception of a slight (−2% decrease in river discharge projected using HadGEM1 for the River Xiangxi, mean annual river discharge is projected to increase in both catchments under both the SRES A1B emission scenario and 2° rise in global mean air temperature using all AR4 GCMs on the CMIP3 subset. For the River Xiangxi, there is substantial uncertainty associated with GCM structure in the magnitude of the rise in flood (Q05 discharges (−1 to 41% under SRES A1B and −3 to 41% under 2�

Simulating future wheat yield under climate change, carbon dioxide enrichment and technology improvement in Iran. Case study: Azarbaijan region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mansouri, H.; Raei, Y.; Zaeim, A.N.

2015-07-01

Climate change and technology development can affect crop productivity in future conditions. Precise estimation of crops yield change as affected by climate and technology in the future is an effective approach for management strategies. The aim of this study was to estimate the impacts of climate change, technology improvement, CO2 enrichment, and overall impacts on wheat yield under future conditions. Wheat yield was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) compared to baseline year (2011) under two scenarios of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) including SRES-A2 as regional economic scenario and SRES-B1 as global environmental scenario in Azarbaijan region (NW of Iran). A linear regression model, describing the relationship between wheat yield and historical year, was developed to investigate technology development effect. The decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT4.5) was used to evaluate the influence of climate change on wheat yield. The most positive effects were found for wheat yield as affected by technology in all studied regions. Under future climate change, the SRES projected a decrease in yield, especially in West Azarbaijan region. When the effects of elevated CO2 were considered, all regions resulted to increase in wheat yield. Considering all components effect in comparison with baseline (2011), yield increase would range from 5% to 38% across all times, scenarios and regions. According to our findings, it seems that we may expect a higher yield of wheat in NW Iran in the future if technology development continues as well as past years. (Author)

Comparative analyses of B{yields}K{sub 2}{sup *}l{sup +}l{sup -} in the standard model and new physics scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Run-Hui [Institute of High Energy Physics, Beijing (China); Yonsei Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Physics and IPAP; Lue, Cai-Dian [Institute of High Energy Physics, Beijing (China); Wang, Wei [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

2010-12-15

We analyze the B {yields} K{sub 2}{sup *}({yields} K{pi})l{sup +}l{sup -} (with l=e,{mu},{tau}) decay in the standard model and two new physics scenarios: vector-like quark model and family non-universal Z{sup '} model. We derive the differential angular distributions of the quasi-four-body decay, using the recently calculated form factors in the perturbative QCD approach. Branching ratios, polarizations, forward-backward asymmetries and transversity amplitudes are predicted, from which we find a promising prospective to observe this channel on the future experiment. We also update the constraints on effective Wilson coefficients and/or free parameters in these two new physics scenarios by making use of the experimental data of B{yields}K{sup *}l{sup +}l{sup -} and b{yields}sl{sup +}l{sup -}. Their impact on B{yields}K{sub 2}{sup *}l{sup +}l{sup -} is subsequently explored and in particular the zero-crossing point for the forward-backward asymmetry in these new physics scenarios can sizably deviate from the SM scenario. In addition we also generalize the analysis to a similar mode B{sub s}{yields}f{sup '}{sub 2}(1525)({yields}K{sup +}K{sup -})l{sup +}l{sup -}. (orig.)

CO2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming; Scenari globali di emissione a lungo termine di CO2 per una simulazione piu' completa dell'effetto serra

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Michelini, M. [ENEA, Divisione Sistemi Energetici per la Mobilita' e l' Habitat, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

2001-07-01

In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC. [Italian] Nell'ambito della elaborazione di un modello puntuale per la simulazione del riscaldamento globale conseguente all'effetto serra, (rapporto tecnico RT/ERG/2001/1), viene ripresa la problematica degli scenari di emissione di CO2 per alcuni secoli al fine di poter studiare l'intera evoluzione del fenomeno. Per superare le difficolta' insite nelle previsioni riferite a un futuro tanto lontano, vengono indicate alcune metodologie. Dal lato domanda i principali fattori di crescita dei consumi (cioe' popolazione e sviluppo economico) vengono posti a confronto (lato offerta) con le modalita' di diffusione delle singole fonti desunte dai

Drought risk and climate change impacts on Querença-Silves aquifer and Odelouca watershed (Algarve)

OpenAIRE

Novo, M. E.; Oliveira, L. G. S.

2014-01-01

The evolution aquifer recharge and runoff in Querença-Silves aquifer and Odelouca watershed under three emissions scenarios (IS92a, SRES A2 e SRES B2), for year 2100, was calculated using BALSEQ daily water balance and a methodology developed by Oliveira et al. (2012) to generate the hydrological data required by this model. The results hint at a future drier climate regimes, with significant runoff reductions of 11 to 12% in Odelouca watershed and Querença-Silves aquifer while...

Modeling the potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis under multiple climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy Andrew Joyner

Full Text Available Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km(2 and 8 km(2 and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km(2. Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting approximately 14-16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting approximately 15% loss at 55 km(2, approximately 34% loss at 8 km(2, and approximately 30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km(2. Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B

Trade Liberalization and Climate Change: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impacts on Global Agriculture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katrin Rehdanz

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the A1B and A2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture, and its interactions with trade liberalization, as proposed for the Doha Development Round. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Significant reductions in agricultural tariffs lead to modest changes in regional water use. Patterns are non-linear. On the regional level, water use may go up for partial liberalization, and down for more complete liberalization. This is because different crops respond differently to tariff reductions, and because trade and competition matter too. Moreover, trade liberalization tends to reduce water use in water scarce regions, and increase water use in water abundant regions, even though water markets do not exist in most countries. Considering impacts of climate change, the results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall over time while food prices increase. Larger changes are observed under the SRES A2 scenario for the medium term (2020 and under the SRES A1B scenario for the long term (2050. Combining scenarios of future climate change with trade liberalization, countries are affected differently. However, the overall effect on welfare does not change much.

Predicting Monsoonal-Driven Stream Discharge and Sediment Yield in Himalaya Mountain Basins with Changing Climate and Deforestation

Science.gov (United States)

Neupane, R. P.; White, J. D.

2014-12-01

Short and long term effects of site water availability impacts the spectrum of management outcomes including landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture in mountain systems heavily influenced by climate and land use changes. Climate change and land use may predominantly affect the hydrologic cycle of mountain basins as soil precipitation interception is affected by land cover. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, we estimated stream discharge and sediment yield associated with climate and land use changes for two Himalaya basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal that included drainages of the Tamor and Seti Rivers. Future climate change was modeled using average output of temperature and precipitation changes derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (B1, A1B & A2) of 16 global circulation models for 2080 as meteorological inputs into SWAT. Land use change was modeled spatially and included 1) deforestation, 2) expansion of agricultural land, and 3) increased human settlement that were produced by considering current land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use types. We found higher annual stream discharge in all GCM-derived scenarios compared to the baseline with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. With 7% of original forest land removed, sediment yield for Tamor basin was estimated to be 65% higher, but increased to 124% for the SRES-B1 scenario. For the Seti basin, 4% deforestation yielded 33% more sediment for the SRES-A1B scenario. Our results indicated that combined effects of future, intensified monsoon rainfall with deforestation lead to dramatic potential for increased stream discharge and sediment yield as rainfall on steep slopes with thin exposed soils increases surface runoff and soil erosion in the Himalayas. This effect appears to

Downscaling drivers of global environmental change: Enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.; Lucas, P.L.; Hilderink, H.

2007-01-01

Global environmental change scenarios typically distinguish between about 10–20 global regions. However, various studies need scenario information at a higher level of spatial detail. This paper presents a set of algorithms that aim to fill this gap by providing downscaled scenario data for

U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

2009-02-01

We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

Scenario forecasting changes in the water balance components of the Olenek and Iindigirka river basins due to possible climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ye. M. Gusev

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.

Evaluating the effects of future climate change and elevated CO2 on the water use efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems of China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Peng, C.; Liu, J.; Wei, X.; Fang, X.; Liu, S.; Zhou, G.; Yu, S.

2011-01-01

Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important variable used in climate change and hydrological studies in relation to how it links ecosystem carbon cycles and hydrological cycles together. However, obtaining reliable WUE results based on site-level flux data remains a great challenge when scaling up to larger regional zones. Biophysical, process-based ecosystem models are powerful tools to study WUE at large spatial and temporal scales. The Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations on ecosystem-level WUE (defined as the ratio of gross primary production (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET)) in relation to terrestrial ecosystems in China for 2009–2099. Climate scenario data (IPCC SRES A2 and SRES B1) generated from the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) was used in the simulations. Seven simulations were implemented according to the assemblage of different elevated CO2 concentrations scenarios and different climate change scenarios. Analysis suggests that (1) further elevated CO2concentrations will significantly enhance the WUE over China by the end of the twenty-first century, especially in forest areas; (2) effects of climate change on WUE will vary for different geographical regions in China with negative effects occurring primarily in southern regions and positive effects occurring primarily in high latitude and altitude regions (Tibetan Plateau); (3) WUE will maintain the current levels for 2009–2099 under the constant climate scenario (i.e. using mean climate condition of 1951–2006 and CO2concentrations of the 2008 level); and (4) WUE will decrease with the increase of water resource restriction (expressed as evaporation ratio) among different ecosystems.

National Scale Prediction of Soil Carbon Sequestration under Scenarios of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Izaurralde, R. C.; Thomson, A. M.; Potter, S. R.; Atwood, J. D.; Williams, J. R.

2006-12-01

Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is gaining momentum as a tool to mitigate the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2. Researchers from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Texas A&M University, and USDA-NRCS used the EPIC model to develop national-scale predictions of soil carbon sequestration with adoption of no till (NT) under scenarios of climate change. In its current form, the EPIC model simulates soil C changes resulting from heterotrophic respiration and wind / water erosion. Representative modeling units were created to capture the climate, soil, and management variability at the 8-digit hydrologic unit (USGS classification) watershed scale. The soils selected represented at least 70% of the variability within each watershed. This resulted in 7,540 representative modeling units for 1,412 watersheds. Each watershed was assigned a major crop system: corn, soybean, spring wheat, winter wheat, cotton, hay, alfalfa, corn-soybean rotation or wheat-fallow rotation based on information from the National Resource Inventory. Each representative farm was simulated with conventional tillage and no tillage, and with and without irrigation. Climate change scenarios for two future periods (2015-2045 and 2045-2075) were selected from GCM model runs using the IPCC SRES scenarios of A2 and B2 from the UK Hadley Center (HadCM3) and US DOE PCM (PCM) models. Changes in mean and standard deviation of monthly temperature and precipitation were extracted from gridded files and applied to baseline climate (1960-1990) for each of the 1,412 modeled watersheds. Modeled crop yields were validated against historical USDA NASS county yields (1960-1990). The HadCM3 model predicted the most severe changes in climate parameters. Overall, there would be little difference between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Carbon offsets were calculated as the difference in soil C change between conventional and no till. Overall, C offsets during the first 30-y period (513 Tg C) are predicted to

Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vichi, Marcello; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Manzini, Elisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Fogli, Pier Giuseppe [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Patara, Lavinia [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel (Germany); Scoccimarro, Enrico [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

2011-11-15

Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ''target'' concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the

An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Déqué, M.; Rowell, D. P.; Lüthi, D.

2007-01-01

Ten regional climate models (RCM) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre boundary conditions. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071-2100 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed...... as an average over a finite number of years (30). Model uncertainty is due to the fact that the models use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Radiative uncertainty is due to the fact that IPCC-SRES A2 is merely one hypothesis. Some RCMs have been run with another...... scenario of greenhouse gas concentration (IPCC-SRES B2). Boundary uncertainty is due to the fact that the regional models have been run under the constraint of the same global model. Some RCMs have been run with other boundary forcings. The contribution of the different sources varies according...

[Variation trends of natural vegetation net primary productivity in China under climate change scenario].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Dong-sheng; Wu, Shao-hong; Yin, Yun-he

2011-04-01

Based on the widely used Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) for climate change study, and according to the features of natural environment in China, the operation mechanism of the model was adjusted, and the parameters were modified. With the modified LPJ model and taking 1961-1990 as baseline period, the responses of natural vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in China to climate change in 1991-2080 were simulated under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario. In 1961-1990, the total NPP of natural vegetation in China was about 3.06 Pg C a(-1); in 1961-2080, the total NPP showed a fluctuant decreasing trend, with an accelerated decreasing rate. Under the condition of slight precipitation change, the increase of mean air temperature would have definite adverse impact on the NPP. Spatially, the NPP decreased from southeast coast to northwest inland, and this pattern would have less variation under climate change. In eastern China with higher NPP, especially in Northeast China, east of North China, and Loess Plateau, the NPP would mainly have a decreasing trend; while in western China with lower NPP, especially in the Tibetan Plateau and Tarim Basin, the NPP would be increased. With the intensive climate change, such a variation trend of NPP would be more obvious.

Impact of Climate Change on India's Monsoonal Climate: Present ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature over India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenarios · Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020's, 2050's and 2080's · Likely Future Paradox of Monsoon-ENSO Links · High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Scenarios.

Projected hydrologic changes in monsoon-dominated Himalaya Mountain basins with changing climate and deforestation

Science.gov (United States)

Neupane, Ram P.; White, Joseph D.; Alexander, Sara E.

2015-06-01

In mountain headwaters, climate and land use changes affect short and long term site water budgets with resultant impacts on landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture. To project hydrologic change associated with climate and land use changes in the Himalaya Mountains, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibrated for the Tamor and Seti River basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal. Future climate change was modeled using averaged temperature and precipitation for 2080 derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B and A2) of 16 global circulation models (GCMs). Land use change was modeled spatially and included expansion of (1) agricultural land, (2) grassland, and (3) human settlement area that were produced by considering existing land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use type. From these simulations, higher annual stream discharge was found for all GCM-derived scenarios compared to a baseline simulation with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. On seasonal basis, we assessed higher precipitation during monsoon season in all scenarios that corresponded with higher stream discharge of 72 and 68% for Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. This effect appears to be geographically important with higher influence in the eastern Tamor basin potentially due to longer and stronger monsoonal period of that region. However, we projected minimal changes in stream discharge for the land use scenarios potentially due to higher water transmission to groundwater reservoirs associated with fractures of the Himalaya Mountains rather than changes in surface runoff. However, when combined the effects of climate and land use changes, discharge was moderately increased indicating counteracting mechanisms of hydrologic yield in these mountains

Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiong, Wei; Lin, Erda; Ju, Hui; Xu, Yinlong

2007-01-01

Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered

Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xiong, Wei; Lin, Erda; Ju, Hui; Xu, Yinlong [Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing (China)

2007-03-15

Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered.

Terrestrial transect study on driving mechanism of vegetation changes

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2008-01-01

In terms of Chinese climate-vegetation model based on the classification of plant functional types, to- gether with climatic data from 1951 to 1980 and two future climatic scenarios (SRES-A2 and SRES-B2) in China from the highest and the lowest emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, the distribution patterns of vegetation types and their changes along the Northeast China Transect (NECT) and the North-South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC) were simulated in order to understand the driving mechanisms of vegetation changes under climatic change. The results indicated that the vegetation distribution patterns would change significantly under future climate, and the major factors driving the vegetation changes were water and heat. However, the responses of various vegetation types to the changes in water and heat factors were obviously different. The vegetation changes were more sensi- tive to heat factors than to water factors. Thus, in the future climate warming will significantly affect vegetation distribution patterns.

Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ocean carbon uptake: A multi-model linear feedback analysis

OpenAIRE

Roy Tilla; Bopp Laurent; Gehlen Marion; Schneider Birgitt; Cadule Patricia; Frölicher Thomas; Segschneider Jochen; Tijputra Jerry; Heinze Christoph; Joos Fortunat

2011-01-01

The increase in atmospheric CO2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air–sea CO2 uptake which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO2 itself and climate change. Here the future oceanic CO2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate–carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully sep...

Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 deg. C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogelj, Joeri; Hare, William; Chen, Claudine; Meinshausen, Malte

2011-01-01

Aggregations of greenhouse gas mitigation pledges by countries are frequently used to indicate whether resulting global emissions in 2020 will be 'on track' to limit global temperature increase to below specific warming levels such as 1.5 or 2 deg. C. We find that historical emission levels aggregated from data that are officially reported by countries to the UNFCCC are lower than independent global emission estimates, such as the IPCC SRES scenarios. This discrepancy in historical emissions could substantially widen the gap between 2020 pledges and 2020 benchmarks, as the latter tend to be derived from scenarios that share similar historical emission levels to IPCC SRES scenarios. Three methods for resolving this discrepancy, here called 'harmonization', are presented and their influence on 'gap' estimates is discussed. Instead of a 3.4-9.2 GtCO 2 eq shortfall in emission reductions by 2020 compared with the 44 GtCO 2 eq benchmark, the actual gap might be as high as 5.4-12.5 GtCO 2 eq (a 22-88% increase of the gap) if this historical discrepancy is accounted for. Not applying this harmonization step when using 2020 emission benchmarks could lead to an underestimation of the insufficiency of current mitigation pledges.

Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in East Asia Simulated by the MRI CGCM2

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Akio KITOH; Masahiro HOSAKA; Yukimasa ADACHI; Kenji KAMIGUCHI

2005-01-01

Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21st century and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-member ensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios. It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while both the frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a few percent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the rest of the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases, suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. South China is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitation intensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warming and an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone,which may be related with an El Ni(n)o-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease in summer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipit ation contrast more in the future.

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

Estimating the effects of potential climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes of a large agriculture dominated watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Neupane, Ram P.; Kumar, Sandeep

2015-10-01

Land use and climate are two major components that directly influence catchment hydrologic processes, and therefore better understanding of their effects is crucial for future land use planning and water resources management. We applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the effects of potential land use change and climate variability on hydrologic processes of large agriculture dominated Big Sioux River (BSR) watershed located in North Central region of USA. Future climate change scenarios were simulated using average output of temperature and precipitation data derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B, and A2) for end-21st century. Land use change was modeled spatially based on historic long-term pattern of agricultural transformation in the basin, and included the expansion of corn (Zea mays L.) cultivation by 2, 5, and 10%. We estimated higher surface runoff in all land use scenarios with maximum increase of 4% while expanding 10% corn cultivation in the basin. Annual stream discharge was estimated higher with maximum increase of 72% in SRES-B1 attributed from higher groundwater contribution of 152% in the same scenario. We assessed increased precipitation during spring season but the summer precipitation decreased substantially in all climate change scenarios. Similar to decreased summer precipitation, discharge of the BSR also decreased potentially affecting agricultural production due to reduced future water availability during crop growing season in the basin. However, combined effects of potential land use change with climate variability enhanced for higher annual discharge of the BSR. Therefore, these estimations can be crucial for implications of future land use planning and water resources management of the basin.

Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.

2006-01-01

Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent on concurrent changes in socio-economic development pathways. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of socio-economic scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts...... on European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise...... downscaling procedure based on expert-judgement and pairwise comparison is presented to obtain quantitative socio-economic parameters, e.g. prices and productivity estimates that are input to the ACCELERATES integrated land use model. In the first step, the global driving forces are identified and quantified...

Precipitation projections under GCMs perspective and Turkish Water Foundation (TWF) statistical downscaling model procedures

Science.gov (United States)

Dabanlı, İsmail; Şen, Zekai

2018-04-01

The statistical climate downscaling model by the Turkish Water Foundation (TWF) is further developed and applied to a set of monthly precipitation records. The model is structured by two phases as spatial (regional) and temporal downscaling of global circulation model (GCM) scenarios. The TWF model takes into consideration the regional dependence function (RDF) for spatial structure and Markov whitening process (MWP) for temporal characteristics of the records to set projections. The impact of climate change on monthly precipitations is studied by downscaling Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A2 and B2 emission scenarios from Max Plank Institute (EH40PYC) and Hadley Center (HadCM3). The main purposes are to explain the TWF statistical climate downscaling model procedures and to expose the validation tests, which are rewarded in same specifications as "very good" for all stations except one (Suhut) station in the Akarcay basin that is in the west central part of Turkey. Eventhough, the validation score is just a bit lower at the Suhut station, the results are "satisfactory." It is, therefore, possible to say that the TWF model has reasonably acceptable skill for highly accurate estimation regarding standard deviation ratio (SDR), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS) criteria. Based on the validated model, precipitation predictions are generated from 2011 to 2100 by using 30-year reference observation period (1981-2010). Precipitation arithmetic average and standard deviation have less than 5% error for EH40PYC and HadCM3 SRES (A2 and B2) scenarios.

IPCC AR4 Simulations

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Future climate simulations (initial conditions from end of the 20th Century simulation):. “Committed Climate Change”: hold concentrations at year 2000; SRES A2 to 2100; SRES A1B to 2100 then fix concentrations (~720 ppm) for an additional century (with one realization extended to 2300); As above but with SRES B1 ...

Telling better stories: strengthening the story in story and simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Kemp-Benedict, Eric

2012-12-01

analysis', which maximizes a quantitative measure of the spread of a set of qualitative scenarios defined by states of driving forces (Carlsen 2009). It could also include a survey of different worldviews, and the qualitative models that they imply, such as that carried out by Sunderlin (Sunderlin 2003). Futures studies has moved forward from the time the SRES was published, and new techniques are now available that can help us to tell better stories of the future. References Alcamo J 2001 Scenarios as Tools for International Environmental Assessments (Cophenhagen: European Environment Agency) Alcamo J 2008 The SAS approach: combining qualitative and quantitative knowledge in environmental scenarios Environmental Futures—The Practice of Environmental Scenario Analysis vol 2, ed J Alcamo (Amsterdam: Elsevier) pp 123-50 Carlsen H 2009 Climate change and the construction of scenario sets that span the range of societal uncertainties Paper for International Studies Association Annual Convention 2009 (New York City, February) Jackson T 2009 Prosperity Without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet (London: Earthscan) Kriegler E, O'Neill B C, Hallegatte S, Kram T, Lempert R J, Moss R H and Wilbanks T 2012 The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: a new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways Glob. Environ. Change 22 807-22 Nakicenovic N and Swart R (eds) 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Raskin P, Monks F, Ribeiro T, van Vuuren D and Zurek M 2005 Global scenarios in historical perspective Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios: Findings of the Scenarios Working Group vol 2, ed S R Carpenter et al (Washington, DC: Island) pp 35-44 Schweizer V J and Kriegler E 2012 Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044011 Sunderlin W D 2003 Ideology, Social Theory, and the Environment (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield

Nutrient inputs and hydrology together determine biogeochemical status of the Loire River (France): Current situation and possible future scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Garnier, Josette; Ramarson, Antsiva; Billen, Gilles; Théry, Sylvain; Thiéry, Dominique; Thieu, Vincent; Minaudo, Camille; Moatar, Florentina

2018-05-10

The Grafs-Seneque/Riverstrahler model was implemented for the first time on the Loire River for the 2002-2014 period, to explore eutrophication after improvement of wastewater treatments. The model reproduced the interannual levels and seasonal trends of the major water quality variables. Although eutrophication has been impressively reduced in the drainage network, a eutrophication risk still exists at the coast, as shown by the N-ICEP indicator, pointing out an excess of nitrogen over silica and phosphorus. From maximum biomass exceeding 120 μgChla l -1 in the 1980's, we observed decreasing maximum values from 80 to 30 μgChla l -1 during the period studied. Several scenarios were explored. Regarding nutrient point sources, a low wastewater treatment scenario, similar to the situation in the 1980's, was elaborated, representing much greater pollution than the reference period (2002-2014). For diffuse sources, two agricultural scenarios were elaborated for reducing nitrogen, one with a strict application of the agricultural directives and another investigating the impact of radical structural changes in agriculture and the population's diet. Although reduced, a risk of eutrophication would remain, even with the most drastic scenario. In addition, a pristine scenario, with no human activity within the basin, was devised to assess water quality in a natural state. The impact of a change in hydrology on the Loire biogeochemical functioning was also explored according to the effect of climate change by the end of the 21st century. The EROS hydrological model was used to force Riverstrahler, considering the most pessimistic SRES A2 scenario run with the ARPEGE model. Nutrient fluxes all decreased due to a >50% reduction in the average annual discharge, overall reducing the risk of coastal eutrophication, but worsening the water quality status of the river network. The Riverstrahler model could be useful to help water managers contend with future threats in the

Getting started with Oracle SOA B2B Integration a hands-on tutorial

CERN Document Server

Bhatia, Krishnaprem; Perlovsky, Alan

2013-01-01

This hands on tutorial gives you the best possible start you could hope for with Oracle B2B. Learn using real life scenarios and examples to give you a solid footing of B2B.This book is for B2B architects, consultants and developers who would like to design and develop B2B integrations using Oracle B2B. This book assumes no prior knowledge of Oracle B2B and explains all concepts from scratch using illustrations, real world examples and step-by-step instructions. The book covers enough depth and details to be useful for both beginner and advanced B2B users.

Long-term cost targets for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.H.; McDonald, A.

2004-01-01

In 2000 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) began the International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) to help guide nuclear R and D strategies targeted on anticipated mid-century energy system needs. One part of INPRO seeks to develop cost targets for new designs to be competitive in mid-century markets. The starting point was the 40 scenarios of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This paper summarizes four of the SRES scenarios, one from each of the four SRES scenario families. It discusses their implications for nuclear energy, including cost targets, and develops for each an 'aggressive nuclear' variant. The aggressive nuclear variants estimate the potential market for nuclear energy if, by improving faster than assumed by the SRES authors, nuclear energy can make inroads into vulnerable market shares projected for its competitors. In addition to projected demands for nuclear generated electricity, hydrogen and heat, the aggressive variants include prospective demand for nuclear desalination and use in upgrading fossil fuels. The paper then presents learning rates and implied cost targets consistent with the aggressive nuclear variants of the SRES scenarios. One provocative initial result is that many of the scenarios with substantial nuclear expansion do not seem to require big reductions in nuclear investment costs. One interpretation discussed at the end of the paper highlights the difference between cost reductions consistent with long-term energy system optimization based on perfect foresight, and cost reductions necessary to attract private investment in today's 'deregulating' and uncertain energy markets. (orig.)

Social media as a support tool for B2B communication

OpenAIRE

Thapa Magar, Chandani

2016-01-01

This research was commissioned by Oulu University of Applied Sciences and a Finnish tech company Uros Ltd. As social media adoption is growing steadily in the contemporary consumer marketing, not many cases can be found where Social Media has been successfully adopted and used in a B2B scenario. Thus, it has remained as a reserved matter for many B2B companies, which still follow the tried-and-true business principles polished through traditional marketing. This research paper aims to enhanc...

Closing the gap between short- and long-term scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toth, F. L.; Rogner, H.-H.

2005-01-01

Many scenarios published in recent years explore the driving forces and assess plausible ranges of global energy use and the resources they draw on. Some scenarios (e.g., OECD IEA, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development International Energy Agency, 2004) focus on the next decade or two and project the evolution of world energy demand, supply as well as the resources, technologies, and prices to match them. Other scenarios (e.g., the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2000) explore the long term with a view to resource availability and depletion, technological transformations, and environmental concerns, predominantly climate change. A persistent gap (see Figure 1) can be observed in the projections for nuclear energy: near-term scenarios typically project a flat or slightly declining contribution of nuclear energy to the world energy supply whereas medium- and long-term scenarios anticipate significant increases. The magnitude of the gap between the OECD IEA (2002) projections and the median of the 40 IPCC SRES scenarios for the year 2020 amounts to almost 300 GWe installed capacity. Reasons for the gap originate in the differences between the analytical frameworks (including projection techniques) adopted by the short- and long-term studies. Another, closely related reason is the difference in the underlying assumptions, particularly their relations to recent trends and the current situation. In addition, near-term projections are heavily influenced by the social context (perceived unpopularity or outright rejection of nuclear power after Chernobyl), political factors (government pronouncements and policies at the national level, diplomacy and balancing of national positions at international organizations), economic aspects (energy market deregulation and liberalization unveiling excess capacities; financial risks), technology matters (the role of learning, definition of

Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

2016-08-01

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O₃ level and of 0.3 mg m³ in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO₂, H₂O₂, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O₃, and increases in CH₄ and VOCs. Increasing NO_x and O₃ levels enhances the nitrogen and O₃ deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m² . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

2012-12-01

An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

2014-08-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

Die invloed van klimaatverandering op die Suid-Afrikaanse stad en voorgestelde aanpassings

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Conradie, Dirk CU

2017-02-01

Full Text Available climate map, it was decided that, over and above the use of historic climatic data, climate change should also be considered. An A2 climate change scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for the period 1961-2100 (Engelbrecht et al...

Palatable leptoquark scenarios for lepton flavor violation in exclusive b→sℓ{sub 1}ℓ{sub 2} modes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bečirević, D. [Laboratoire de Physique Théorique (Bât. 210),CNRS and University Paris-Sud, Université Paris-Saclay, 91405 Orsay cedex (France); Košnik, N. [Departement of Physics, University of Ljubljana,Jadranska 19, 1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Jožef Stefan Institute,Jamova 39, P.O. Box 3000, 1001 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Sumensari, O. [Laboratoire de Physique Théorique (Bât. 210),CNRS and University Paris-Sud, Université Paris-Saclay, 91405 Orsay cedex (France); Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo,C.P. 66.318, 05315-970 São Paulo (Brazil); Funchal, R. Zukanovich [Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo,C.P. 66.318, 05315-970 São Paulo (Brazil)

2016-11-07

We examine various scenarios that involve a light O(1 TeV) leptoquark state and select those which are compatible with the current experimental values for B(B{sub s}→μμ), B(B→Kμμ){sub large−q{sup 2}}, R{sub K}=B{sup ′}(B→Kμμ)/B{sup ′}(B→Kee), and which lead to predictions consistent with other experimental data. We show that two such scenarios are phenomenologically plausible, namely the one with a doublet of scalar leptoquarks of hypercharge 1/6, and the one with a triplet of vector leptoquarks of hypercharge 2/3. We also argue that a model with a singlet scalar leptoquark of hypercharge 1/3 is not viable. Using the present experimental data as constraints, it is shown that the exclusive lepton flavor violating decays, B(B{sub s}→μτ), B(B→Kμτ) and B(B→K{sup ∗}μτ), can be as large as O(10{sup −5}).

Reservoir Inflow Prediction under GCM Scenario Downscaled by Wavelet Transform and Support Vector Machine Hybrid Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gusfan Halik

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change has significant impacts on changing precipitation patterns causing the variation of the reservoir inflow. Nowadays, Indonesian hydrologist performs reservoir inflow prediction according to the technical guideline of Pd-T-25-2004-A. This technical guideline does not consider the climate variables directly, resulting in significant deviation to the observation results. This research intends to predict the reservoir inflow using the statistical downscaling (SD of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs. The GCM outputs are obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. A new proposed hybrid SD model named Wavelet Support Vector Machine (WSVM was utilized. It is a combination of the Multiscale Principal Components Analysis (MSPCA and nonlinear Support Vector Machine regression. The model was validated at Sutami Reservoir, Indonesia. Training and testing were carried out using data of 1991–2008 and 2008–2012, respectively. The results showed that MSPCA produced better extracting data than PCA. The WSVM generated better reservoir inflow prediction than the one of technical guideline. Moreover, this research also applied WSVM for future reservoir inflow prediction based on GCM ECHAM5 and scenario SRES A1B.

Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

2010-07-01

An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

Observation of pseudogap in MgB2

Science.gov (United States)

Patil, S.; Medicherla, V. R. R.; Ali, Khadiza; Singh, R. S.; Manfrinetti, P.; Wrubl, F.; Dhar, S. K.; Maiti, Kalobaran

2017-11-01

We investigate the electronic structure of a specially prepared highly dense conventional high temperature superconductor, MgB2, employing high resolution photoemission spectroscopy. The spectral evolution close to the Fermi energy is commensurate to BCS descriptions as expected. However, the spectra in the wider energy range reveal the emergence of a pseudogap much above the superconducting transition temperature indicating an apparent departure from the BCS scenario. The energy scale of the pseudogap is comparable to the energy of the E2g phonon mode responsible for superconductivity in MgB2 and the pseudogap can be attributed to the effect of electron-phonon coupling on the electronic structure. These results reveal a scenario of the emergence of the superconducting gap within an electron-phonon coupling induced pseudogap and have significant implications in the study of high temperature superconductors.

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

Simulation of regional climate change under the IPCC A2 scenario in southeast China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Weilin; Jiang, Zhihong [Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing (China); Li, Laurent [IPSL/CNRS/UPMC, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France); Yiou, Pascal [IPSL, UMR CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

2011-02-15

A variable-grid atmospheric general circulation model, LMDZ, with a local zoom over southeast China is used to investigate regional climate changes in terms of both means and extremes. Two time slices of 30 years are chosen to represent, respectively, the end of the 20th century and the middle of the 21st century. The lower-boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature and sea-ice extension) are taken from the outputs of three global coupled climate models: Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). Results from a two-way nesting system between LMDZ-global and LMDZ-regional are also presented. The evaluation of simulated temperature and precipitation for the current climate shows that LMDZ reproduces generally well the spatial distribution of mean climate and extreme climate events in southeast China, but the model has systematic cold biases in temperature and tends to overestimate the extreme precipitation. The two-way nesting model can reduce the ''cold bias'' to some extent compared to the one-way nesting model. Results with greenhouse gas forcing from the SRES-A2 emission scenario show that there is a significant increase for mean, daily-maximum and minimum temperature in the entire region, associated with a decrease in the number of frost days and an increase in the heat wave duration. The annual frost days are projected to significantly decrease by 12-19 days while the heat wave duration to increase by about 7 days. A warming environment gives rise to changes in extreme precipitation events. Except two simulations (LMDZ/GFDL and LMDZ/IPSL2) that project a decrease in maximum 5-day precipitation (R5d) for winter, other precipitation extremes are projected to increase over most of southeast China in all seasons, and among the three global scenarios. The domain-averaged values for annual simple daily intensity index (SDII), R5d and fraction of

Energy System Expectations for Nuclear in the 21. Century: A Plausible Range

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langlois, Lucille M.; McDonald, Alan; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Vera, Ivan

2002-01-01

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look like in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2000). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios. However, they do not present the underlying energy system structures in enough detail for specific energy technology and infrastructure analyses. This paper therefore describes initial steps within INPRO (The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles of the International Atomic Energy Agency) to translate the SRES results into a range of possible nuclear energy technology requirements for mid-century. The paper summarizes the four SRES scenarios that will be used in INPRO and the reasons for their selection. It provides illustrative examples of the sort of additional detail that is being developed about the overall energy system implied by each scenario, and about specific scenario features particularly relevant to nuclear energy. As recommended in SRES, the selected scenarios cover all four SRES 'story-line families'. The energy system translations being developed in INPRO are intended to indicate how energy services may be provided in mid-century and to delineate likely technology and infrastructure implications. They will indicate answers to questions like the following. The list is illustrative, not comprehensive. - What kind of nuclear power plants will best fit the mid-century energy system? - What energy forms and other products and services provided by nuclear reactors will best fit the mid-century energy system? - What would be their market shares? - How difficult will it be to site new nuclear

Future scenarios for viticultural bioclimatic indices in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, João.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Fraga, Helder; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2010-05-01

Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European countries. Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is one of the main conditioning factors of this activity. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for wine production. In this study, we compute climatic indices (concerning to thermal and hydrological conditions) for Europe, characterize regions with different viticultural aptitude, and assess possible variations in these regions under a future climate conditions using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (mostly daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) obtained from the NCEP reanalysis dataset. Then, the same indices are calculated for present and future climate conditions using data from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small Scale Modelling - Climate Limited-area Modelling). Maps of theses indices for recent-past periods (1961-2008) and for the SRES A1B scenario are considered in order to identify significant changes in their patterns. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant negative impact in wine quality by increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during growing seasons in Southern European regions (e.g. Portugal, Spain and Italy). These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making crucial adaptation/mitigation strategies to be adopted. On the other hand, regions of western and central Europe (e.g. southern Britain, northern France and Germany) will benefit from this scenario both in wine quality, and in new potential areas for viticulture. This approach provides a macro-characterization of European areas where grapevines may preferentially grow, as well as their projected changes

Do invasive riparian Tamarix alter hydrology of riparian areas of arid and semi-arid regions under climate change scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattarai, M. P.; Acharya, K.; Chen, L.

2012-12-01

Competitiveness of riparian invasive species, Tamarix, in arid and semi-arid riparian areas of the southwestern United States under climate change scenario (SRES A2) was investigated. Tamarix has been replacing native vegetation along the riparian corridors of these areas for the past several decades and is thought to alter water balance. Changes in depth to groundwater, soil moisture distribution and flood frequency are critical in survival and growth of a facultative phreatophyte such as Tamarix. In this study, a fully coupled 2d surface flow and 3d subsurface flow hydrologic model, HydroGeoSphere, was used to simulate surface-subsurface hydrology of the lower Virgin River basin (4500 sq. km), located in Nevada, Utah and Arizona. The hydrologic model results, depth to groundwater and soil saturation, were then applied to the species distribution model, Maxent, along with other bioclimatic parameters to asses future Tamarix distribution probability. Simulations were made for the climate scenarios of the end of 21st centry conditions. Depth to groundwater is found to be the most important predictor variable to the Maxent model. Future Tamarix distribution range is not uniform across the basin. It is likely to decrease at lower elevations and increase in some higher elevation areas.

Climate change increases riverine carbon outgassing, while export to the ocean remains uncertain

Science.gov (United States)

Langerwisch, F.; Walz, A.; Rammig, A.; Tietjen, B.; Thonicke, K.; Cramer, W.

2016-07-01

, independent of the SRES scenario. The export of carbon to the atmosphere increases as well, with an average of about 30 %. In contrast, changes in future export of organic carbon to the Atlantic Ocean depend on the SRES scenario and are projected to either decrease by about 8.9 % (SRES A1B) or increase by about 9.1 % (SRES A2). Such changes in the terrigenous-riverine system could have local and regional impacts on the carbon budget of the whole Amazon basin and parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Changes in riverine carbon could lead to a shift in the riverine nutrient supply and pH, while changes in the exported carbon to the ocean lead to changes in the supply of organic material that acts as a food source in the Atlantic. On larger scales the increased outgassing of CO2 could turn the Amazon basin from a sink of carbon to a considerable source. Therefore, we propose that the coupling of terrestrial and riverine carbon budgets should be included in subsequent analysis of the future regional carbon budget.

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures

Science.gov (United States)

Nativi, Stefano; Santoro, Mattia

2010-05-01

In the last years, scientific community is producing great efforts in order to study the effects of climate change on life on Earth. In this general framework, a key role is played by the impact of climate change on biodiversity. To assess this, several use scenarios require the modeling of climatological change impact on the regional distribution of biodiversity species. Designing and developing interoperability infrastructures which enable scientists to search, discover, access and use multi-disciplinary resources (i.e. datasets, services, models, etc.) is currently one of the main research fields for the Earth and Space Science Informatics. This presentation introduces and discusses an interoperability infrastructure which implements the discovery, access, and chaining of loosely-coupled resources in the climatology and biodiversity domains. This allows to set up and run forecast and processing models. The presented framework was successfully developed and experimented in the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2) Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group. This interoperability infrastructure is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. B. B. Booth

2013-04-01

Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Nativi, S.; Santoro, M.

2009-12-01

Currently, one of the major challenges for scientific community is the study of climate change effects on life on Earth. To achieve this, it is crucial to understand how climate change will impact on biodiversity and, in this context, several application scenarios require modeling the impact of climate change on distribution of individual species. In the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2), the Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group developed three significant user scenarios. A couple of them make use of a GEOSS-based framework to study the impact of climate change factors on regional species distribution. The presentation introduces and discusses this framework which provides an interoperability infrastructures to loosely couple standard services and components to discover and access climate and biodiversity data, and run forecast and processing models. The framework is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access

SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qi, L.; Hao, J.; Lu, M.

1995-01-01

Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO 2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on the eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. 'Optimistic', 'Pessimistic' and 'Business as Usual' scenarios were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO 2 emission from 1990 to 2020. A 'Top-down' approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO 2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO 2 control situation. Emission level for each 1 degree longitude x 1 degree latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO 2 sources. The results show that SO 2 emission in China will increase rapidly, if the current situation for energy saving and SO 2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010. Realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. The share of eastern China in the country's total emission would increase until 2000, while the general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of the whole country. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The Brazil Experience

Science.gov (United States)

Assad, Eduardo D.; Marin, Fabio R.; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.

2012-01-01

Climate variability and change are projected to increate the frequency of extreme high-temperature events, floods, and droughts, which can lead to subsequent changes in soil moister in many locations (Alexandrov and Hoogenboom, 2000). In Brazil, observations reveal a tendency for increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events particularly in south Brazil (Alexander et al., 2006; Carvalho et al., 2014; Groissman et al., 2005), as well as projections for increasing extremes in both maximum and minimum temperatures and high spatial variability for rainfall under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios (Marengo et al., 2009).

The sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon to a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

May, Wilhelm [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark)

2011-11-15

In this study the potential future changes in different aspects of the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed, focussing on the role of the different mechanisms leading to these changes. In addition, these changes as well as the underlying mechanisms are compared to the corresponding changes associated with a markedly stronger global warming exceeding 4.5 C, associated with the widely used SRES A1B scenario. The study is based on two sets of four ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model, each starting from different initial conditions. In one set of simulations (2020-2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed in such a way that the simulated global warming does not exceed 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times. In the other set of simulations (1860-2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed according to observations until 2000 and according to the SRES A1B scenario after 2000. The study reveals marked changes in the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial conditions, namely an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation despite a weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation. The increase in the monsoon rainfall is related to a variety of different mechanisms, with the intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into the Indian region as the most important one. The weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation is mainly caused by changes in the Walker circulation with large-scale divergence (convergence) in the lower (upper) troposphere over the Indian Ocean in response to enhanced convective activity over the Indian Ocean and the central and eastern Pacific and reduced convective activity over the western tropical Pacific. These changes in the Walker circulation induce westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at

Λ{sub b}→Λ{sub c}τν̄{sub τ} decay in scalar and vector leptoquark scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Xin-Qiang; Yang, Ya-Dong; Zhang, Xin [Institute of Particle Physics and Key Laboratory of Quark and Lepton Physics (MOE),Central China Normal University, Wuhan, Hubei 430079 (China)

2017-02-13

It has been shown that the anomalies observed in B̄→D{sup (∗)}τν̄{sub τ} and B̄→K̄ℓ{sup +}ℓ{sup −} decays can be resolved by adding a single scalar or vector leptoquark to the Standard Model, while constraints from other precision measurements in the flavour sector can be satisfied without fine-tuning. To further explore these two interesting scenarios, in this paper, we study their effects in the semi-leptonic Λ{sub b}→Λ{sub c}τν̄{sub τ} decay. Using the best-fit solutions for the operator coefficients allowed by the current data of mesonic decays, we find that (i) the two scenarios give similar amounts of enhancements to the branching fraction B(Λ{sub b}→Λ{sub c}τν̄{sub τ}) and the ratio R{sub Λ{sub c}}=B(Λ{sub b}→Λ{sub c}τν̄{sub τ})/B(Λ{sub b}→Λ{sub c}ℓν̄{sub ℓ}), (ii) the two best-fit solutions in each of these two scenarios are also indistinguishable from each other, (iii) both scenarios give nearly the same predictions as those of the Standard Model for the longitudinal polarizations of Λ{sub c} and τ as well as the lepton-side forward-backward asymmetry. With future measurements of these observables in Λ{sub b}→Λ{sub c}τν̄{sub τ} decay at the LHCb, the two leptoquark scenarios could be further tested, and even differentiated from the other NP explanations for the R{sub D{sup (}{sup ∗}{sup )}} anomalies. We also discuss the feasibility for the measurements of these observables at the LHC and the future e{sup +}e{sup −} colliders.

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

2015-01-01

This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO 2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO 2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

2015-07-01

This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

Twenty first century climate change as simulated by European climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubasch, Ulrich

2007-01-01

Full text: Climate change simulation results for seven European state-of-the-art climate models, participating in the European research project ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts), will be presented. Models from Norway, France, Germany, Denmark, and Great Britain, representing a sub-ensemble of the models contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), are included. Climate simulations are conducted with all the models for present-day climate and for future climate under the SRES A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The design of the simulations follows the guidelines of the IPCC AR4. The 21st century projections are compared to the corresponding present-day simulations. The ensemble mean global mean near surface temperature rise for the year 2099 compared to the 1961-1990 period amounts to 3.2Kforthe A1B scenario, to 4.1 K for the A2 scenario, and to 2.1 K for the B1 scenario. The spatial patterns of temperature change are robust among the contributing models with the largest temperature increase over the Arctic in boreal winter, stronger warming overland than over ocean, and little warming over the southern oceans. The ensemble mean globally averaged precipitation increases for the three scenarios (5.6%, 5.7%, and 3.8% for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, respectively). The precipitation signals of the different models display a larger spread than the temperature signals. In general, precipitation increases in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the mid- to high latitudes (most pronounced during the hemispheric winter) and decreases in the subtropics. Sea-level pressure decreases over the polar regions in all models and all scenarios, which is mainly compensated by a pressure increase in the subtropical highs. These changes imply an intensification of the Southern and Northern Annular Modes

Modeling framework for estimating impacts of climate change on electricity demand at regional level: Case of Greece

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirasgedis, S.; Sarafidis, Y.; Georgopoulou, E.; Kotroni, V.; Lagouvardos, K.; Lalas, D.P.

2007-01-01

This paper focuses on the potential upcoming impacts of climate change in the 21st century on electricity demand at regional/national levels for regions where topography and location result in large differences in local climate. To address this issue, a regional climate model, PRECIS, has been used to predict future climatic conditions under different emissions scenarios (namely A2 and B2 of the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios (SRES)) as an input to a multiple regression model of the sensitivity of electricity demand in the Greek interconnected power system to climate and socio-economic factors. The economic development input to the multiple regression model follows the same storylines of the SRES scenarios upto 2100 and includes sub-scenarios to cover larger and smaller economic development rates. The results of the analysis indicate an increase of the annual electricity demand attributable solely to climate change of 3.6-5.5% under all scenarios examined, most of which results from increased annual variability with substantial increases during the summer period that outweighs moderate declines estimated for the winter period. This becomes more pronounced if inter-annual variability, especially of summer months, is taken into consideration. It was also found that in the long run, economic development will have a strong effect on future electricity demand, thus increasing substantially the total amount of energy consumed for cooling and heating purposes. This substantial increase in energy demand with strong annual variability will lead to the need for inordinate increases of installed capacity, a large percentage of which will be under utilized. Thus, appropriate adaptation strategies (e.g. new investments, interconnections with other power systems, energy saving programmes, etc.) need to be developed at the state level in order to ensure the security of energy supply. (author)

Summer precipitation variability over Southeastern South America in a global warming scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Junquas, C. [UPMC/CNRS, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris (France); UMI-IFAECI CNRS-CONICET-UBA, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera (CIMA), DCAO/FCEyN, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Vera, C. [UMI-IFAECI CNRS-CONICET-UBA, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera (CIMA), DCAO/FCEyN, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Li, L.; Le Treut, H. [UPMC/CNRS, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris (France)

2012-05-15

December-January-February (DJF) rainfall variability in southeastern South America (SESA) is studied in 18 coupled general circulation models from the WCRP/CMIP3 dataset, for present climate and the SRES-A1B climate change scenario. The analysis is made in terms of properties of the first leading pattern of rainfall variability in the region, characterized by a dipole-like structure with centers of action in the SESA and South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) regions. The study was performed to address two issues: how rainfall variability in SESA would change in a future climate and how much of that change explains the projected increasing trends in the summer mean rainfall in SESA identified in previous works. Positive (negative) dipole events were identified as those DJF seasons with above (below) normal rainfall in SESA and below (above) normal rainfall in the SACZ region. Results obtained from the multi-model ensemble confirm that future rainfall variability in SESA has a strong projection on the changes of seasonal dipole pattern activity, associated with an increase of the frequency of the positive phase. In addition, the frequency increase of positive dipole phase in the twenty first century seems to be associated with an increase of both frequency and intensity of positive SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, and with a Rossby wave train-like anomaly pattern linking that ocean basin to South America, which regionally induces favorable conditions for moisture transport convergence and rainfall increase in SESA. (orig.)

[Estimating the impacts of future climate change on water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat in Henan Province, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Xing-jie; Cheng, Lin; Fang, Wen-song

2015-09-01

Based on the analysis of water requirement and water deficit during development stage of winter wheat in recent 30 years (1981-2010) in Henan Province, the effective precipitation was calculated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation method, the water requirement (ETC) was estimated by using FAO Penman-Monteith equation and crop coefficient method recommended by FAO, combined with the climate change scenario A2 (concentration on the economic envelopment) and B2 ( concentration on the sustainable development) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) , the spatial and temporal characteristics of impacts of future climate change on effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat were estimated. The climatic impact factors of ETc and WD also were analyzed. The results showed that under A2 and B2 scenarios, there would be a significant increase in anomaly percentage of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period compared with the average value from 1981 to 2010. Effective precipitation increased the most in 2030s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 33.5% and 39.2%, respectively. Water requirement increased the most in 2010s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 22.5% and 17.5%, respectively, and showed a significant downward trend with time. Water deficit increased the most under A2 scenario in 2010s by 23.6% and under B2 scenario in 2020s by 13.0%. Partial correlation analysis indicated that solar radiation was the main cause for the variation of ETc and WD in future under A2 and B2 scenarios. The spatial distributions of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period were spatially heterogeneous because of the difference in geographical and climatic environments. A possible tendency of water resource deficiency may exist in Henan Province in the future.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

IPCC IS92 Emissions Scenarios (A, B, C, D, E, F) Dataset Version 1.1

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92 Emissions Scenarios (A, B, C, D, E, F) Dataset Version 1.1 consists of six global and regional greenhouse...

Projected changes in terrestrial carbon storage in Europe under climate and land-use change, 1990-2100

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaehle, S.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.; Erhard, M.; Sitch, S.; Smith, P.C.; Zaehle, S.; Smith, P.C.; Carter, T.R.; Erhard, M.; Prentice, C.; Prentice, C.; Reginster, I.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Sitch, S.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M

2007-01-01

Changes in climate and land use, caused by socio-economic changes, greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural policies and other factors, are known to affect both natural and managed ecosystems, and will likely impact on the European terrestrial carbon balance during the coming decades. This study presents a comprehensive European Union wide (EU15 plus Norway and Switzerland, EU*) assessment of potential future changes in terrestrial carbon storage considering these effects based on four illustrative IPCC-SRES story-lines (A1FI, A2, B1, B2). A process-based land vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM), adapted to include a generic representation of managed ecosystems, is forced with changing fields of land-use patterns from 1901 to 2100 to assess the effect of land-use and cover changes on the terrestrial carbon balance of Europe. The uncertainty in the future carbon balance associated with the choice of a climate change scenario is assessed by forcing LPJ-DGVM with output from four different climate models (GCMs: CGCM2, CSIRO2, HadCM3, PCM2) for the same SRES story-line. Decrease in agricultural areas and afforestation leads to simulated carbon sequestration for all land-use change scenarios with an average net uptake of 17-38 Tg C/year between 1990 and 2100, corresponding to 1.9-2.9% of the EU*s CO 2 emissions over the same period. Soil carbon losses resulting from climate warming reduce or even offset carbon sequestration resulting from growth enhancement induced by climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in the second half of the twenty-first century. Differences in future climate change projections among GCMs are the main cause for uncertainty in the cumulative European terrestrial carbon uptake of 4.4-10.1 Pg C between 1990 and 2100. (authors)

High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, James D.; Mohr, Steve H.; Myers, Baden R.; Nel, Willem P.

2012-01-01

The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

Soil-Water Storage Predictions for Cultivated Crops on the Záhorská Lowlands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jarabicová Miroslava

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the soil-water regime of the Záhorská lowlands. The consequences of climate change on soil-water storage were analyzed for two crops: spring barley and maize. We analyzed the consequences of climate change on soil-water storage for two crops: spring barley and maize. The soil-water storage was simulated with the GLOBAL mathematical model. The data entered into the model as upper boundary conditions were established by the SRES A2 and SRES B1 climate scenarios and the KNMI regional climate model for the years from 2071 to 2100 (in the text called the time horizon 2085 which is in the middle this period. For the reference period the data from the years 1961-1990 was used. The results of this paper predict soil-water storage until the end of this century for the crops evaluated, as well as a comparison of the soil-water storage predictions with the course of the soil-water storage during the reference period.

Global Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schrattenholzer, L.

2005-01-01

-climate policy scenarios; Emissions mitigation scenarios; and Sustainable-development scenarios. It seems useful to be explicit about the definition of s ustainable development . At IIASA-ECS we use the non-quantitative definition coined originally by the Brundtland Commission: 'development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs' (WCED, 1987) as a point of departure. We then refer to sustainable-development scenarios (1) if economic growth (GDP/capita) is sustained throughout the whole time horizon, (2) if socio-economic equity (GDP/capita) among regions is enhanced significantly over the next century, (3) if reserves(resources)-to-production ratios do not decline over the scenario's time horizon, and if (4) carbon emissions at the end of the century are roughly at or below today's emissions level. This review includes all scenarios that IIASA-ECS contributed to the database of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, which was developed as part of the process of compiling the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000; Morita and Lee, 1998; www-cger.nies.go.jp/cger-e/db/ipcc.html) and classifies them into these three groups.(author)

Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta.

Science.gov (United States)

Robert A. Monserud; Yuqing Yang; Shongming Huang; Nadja Tchebakova

2008-01-01

We estimated the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) site productivity in Alberta based on the Alberta Climate Model and the A2 SRES climate change scenario projections from three global circulation models (CGCM2, HADCM3, and ECHAM4). Considerable warming is...

Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P

2007-01-15

The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

2008-01-01

In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Almahayni, T

2014-12-01

The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper

The 2 oC scenario-A sustainable world energy perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krewitt, Wolfram; Simon, Sonja; Graus, Wina; Teske, Sven; Zervos, Arthouros; Schaefer, Oliver

2007-01-01

A target-oriented scenario of future energy demand and supply is developed in a backcasting process. The main target is to reduce global CO 2 emissions to around 10 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 o C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A 10-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region-specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The 2 o C scenario shows that renewable energy could provide as much as half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO 2 emissions, while at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%

Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Keywords. Climate change; downscaling; hydroclimatology; relative humidity; multi-step linear regression; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES); Malaprabha river basin.

Simulating Hydrologic Changes with Climate Change Scenarios in the Haihe River Basin

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

YUAN Fei; XIE Zheng-Hui; LIU Qian; XIA Jun

2005-01-01

Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25°× 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenaxios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.

Cost-effectiveness of denosumab versus zoledronic acid for preventing skeletal-related events in the Czech Republic.

Science.gov (United States)

Cristino, Joaquim; Finek, Jíndřich; Jandova, Petra; Kolek, Martin; Pásztor, Bálint; Giannopoulou, Christina; Qian, Yi; Brezina, Tomas; Lothgren, Mickael

2017-08-01

This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of the subcutaneous RANKL inhibitor, denosumab, vs the intravenous bisphosphonate, zoledronic acid, for the prevention of skeletal-related events (SREs) in patients with prostate cancer, breast cancer, and other solid tumors (OST) in the Czech Republic. A lifetime Markov model was developed to compare the effects of denosumab and zoledronic acid on costs (including drug costs and administration, patient management, SREs, and adverse events), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from a national payer perspective. Different discount rates, time horizons, SRE rates, distributions, and nature (asymptomatic vs all SREs), and the inclusion of treatment discontinuation were considered in scenario analyses. The robustness of the model was tested using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Across tumor types, denosumab was associated with fewer SREs, improved QALYs, and higher total costs over a lifetime. The incremental cost per QALY gained for denosumab vs zoledronic acid was 382,673 CZK for prostate cancer, 408,450 CZK for breast cancer, and 608,133 CZK for OST. Incremental costs per SRE avoided for the same tumor type were 54,007 CZK, 51,765 CZK, and 94,426 CZK, respectively. In scenario analyses, the results remained similar to baseline, when different discount rates and time horizons were considered. At a non-official willingness-to-pay threshold of 1.2 million CZK, the probabilities of denosumab being cost-effective vs zoledronic acid were 0.64, 0.67, and 0.49 for prostate cancer, breast cancer, and OST, respectively. The SRE rates used were obtained from clinical trials; studies suggest rates may be higher in clinical practice. Additional evidence on real-world SRE rates could further improve the accuracy of the modeling. Compared with zoledronic acid, denosumab provides a cost-effective treatment option for the prevention of SREs in patients with prostate cancer

Uncertainty of simulated groundwater levels arising from stochastic transient climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley; Dassargues, Alain

2010-05-01

The evaluation of climate change impact on groundwater reserves represents a difficult task because both hydrological and climatic processes are complex and difficult to model. In this study, we present an innovative methodology that combines the use of integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models with advanced stochastic transient climate change scenarios. This methodology is applied to the Geer basin (480 km²) in Belgium, which is intensively exploited to supply the city of Liège (Belgium) with drinking water. The physically-based, spatially-distributed, surface-subsurface flow model has been developed with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere . The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the evaporative zone, enables a better representation of interconnected processes in all domains of the catchment (fully saturated zone, partially saturated zone, surface). Additionally, the use of both surface and subsurface observed data to calibrate the model better constrains the calibration of the different water balance terms. Crucially, in the context of climate change impacts on groundwater resources, the evaluation of groundwater recharge is improved. . This surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 greenhouse gases emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were statistically downscaled using a transient stochastic weather generator technique, combining 'RainSim' and the 'CRU weather generator' for temperature and evapotranspiration time series. This downscaling technique exhibits three advantages compared with the 'delta change' method usually used in groundwater impact studies. (1) Corrections to climate model output are

VEMAP 2: U.S. Daily Climate Change Scenarios

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — VEMAP Phase 2 has developed a number of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient climate...

VEMAP 2: U.S. Daily Climate Change Scenarios

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: VEMAP Phase 2 has developed a number of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient...

Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P.

2007-01-01

The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO 2 emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO 2 releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

2016-12-01

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

Climate change and future overwintering conditions of horticultural woody-plants in Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laapas, M.; Jylhae, K.; Tuomenvirta, H. (Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland))

2012-07-01

Climate in Finland offers challenging conditions for commercial horticulture. The short and insufficient growing season together with risky overwintering strongly limits species suitable for cultivation. The aim of this study was to examine the climatic conditions around Finland in the aspect of horticulture, focusing on processes relevant to woody plants and species with photoperiod controlled growth cessation, and how these conditions may be expected to change due to the projected global warming. For this, a set of temperature-related indices and threshold events were used. These indices represent the severity of coldness during winter, wintertime thaws, and frost events close to the onset and ending of the growing season. The combined results of 19 GCMs (General Circulation Model) from the CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3) multi-model data set under SRES-B1 and SRES-A2 (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios were used to produce the future projections. By mid-century our results suggest wintertime conditions with reduced cold stress, caused by less frequent and shorter periods of severe frost together with a rise in the extreme minimum temperature. Conversely, an increase in the number and intensity of wintertime thaw events leads to a higher risk in overwintering. Also the risk of spring frost damage is projected to decrease slightly, and the conditions for cold hardening process to improve, as the first autumnal frosts occur later. (orig.)

Response of net primary productivity of Larix olgensis forest ecosystem to climate change%长白落叶松林生态系统净初级生产力对气候变化的响应

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

何丽鸿; 王海燕; 王璐; 王岳

2015-01-01

应用BIOME-BGC模型和样地调查数据,模拟并验证了吉林省汪清林业局长白落叶松林生态系统净初级生产力( NPP)在1980—2013年间的动态变化情况,分析了NPP对区域气候变化的响应以及在SRES A2和B2排放情景下长白落叶松林生态系统NPP的动态变化. 结果表明:BIOME-BGC模型较好地模拟了样地NPP的动态变化,且模拟NPP与样地实测生产力的动态变化规律相似;在1980—2013年间,长白落叶松林生态系统NPP(以碳计算)均值为477. 74 g/( m2·a) ,波动范围是286. 60~566. 27 g/( m2·a);研究区内长白落叶松林生态系统NPP与年降水量呈显著正相关;在未来A2和B2排放情景下,NPP对未来降水量增加的响应呈正向,对年均温度增加呈负相关,其中温度升高对NPP的负效应要大于降水量增加对NPP的正效应;此外,CO2浓度增加有利于长白落叶松林生态系统NPP的增加.%Based on the BIOME-BGC model and field-measured productivity data, a modeling study was conducted and tested to estimate the dynamic changes of net primary productivity ( NPP) of Larix olgensis forest ecosystem in Wangqing Forestry Bureau, Jilin Province in northeastern China during the period of 1980--2013 . The response of NPP to regional climate change and the dynamics of NPP under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios were explored. The results were shown as follows: 1 ) the model-simulated NPPs were in accordance with the field-measured productivity, suggesting a successful modeling of NPP patterns by the BIOME-BGC model. 2) The mean NPP of L. olgensis was 477. 74 g/(m2·a), fluctuating between 286. 60 and 566. 27 g/( m2·a ) during 1980--2013. 3 ) There was a significant correlation between the NPP of L. olgensis forest ecosystem and annual precipitation. Under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, the NPP would have a positive response to the increase of annual precipitation. The temperature would have a stronger effect than the precipitation. The elevated CO2

The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deque, M

2007-07-01

This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

Temporal dynamics of groundwater-surface water interaction under the effects of climate change: A case study in the Kiskatinaw River Watershed, Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Gopal Chandra; Li, Jianbing; Thring, Ronald W.; Hirshfield, Faye; Paul, Siddhartho Shekhar

2017-08-01

Groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interaction plays a vital role in the functioning of riparian ecosystem, as well as sustainable water resources management. In this study, temporal dynamics of GW-SW interaction were investigated under climate change. A case study was chosen for a study area along the Kiskatinaw River in Mainstem sub-watershed of the Kiskatinaw River Watershed, British Columbia, Canada. A physically based and distributed GW-SW interaction model, Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), was used. Two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (i.e., A2: heterogeneous world with self-reliance and preservation of local identities, and B1: more integrated and environmental friendly world) of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) from Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used for climate change study for 2020-2040. The simulation results showed that climate change influences significantly the temporal patterns of GW-SW interaction by generating variable temporal mean groundwater contributions to streamflow. Due to precipitation variability, these contributions varied monthly, seasonally, and annually. The mean annual groundwater contribution to streamflow during 2020-2040 under the A2 and B1 scenarios is expected to be 74.5% (σ = 2%) and 75.6% (σ = 3%), respectively. As compared to that during the base modeling period (2007-2011), the mean annual groundwater contribution to streamflow during 2020-2040 under the A2 and B1 scenarios is expected to decrease by 5.5% and 4.4%, respectively, due to the increased precipitation (on average 6.7% in the A2 and 4.8% in the B1 scenarios) and temperature (on average 0.83 °C in the A2 and 0.64 °C in the B1 scenarios). The results obtained from this study will provide useful information in the long-term seasonal and annual water extractions from the river for future water supply, as well as for evaluating the ecological conditions of the

Assessment of Alternative Scenarios for CO2 Reduction Potential in the Residential Building Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Young-Sun Jeong

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The South Korean government announced its goals of reducing the country’s CO2 emissions by up to 30% below the business as usual (BAU projections by 2020 in 2009 and 37% below BAU projections by 2030 in 2015. This paper explores the potential energy savings and reduction in CO2 emissions offered by residential building energy efficiency policies and plans in South Korea. The current and future energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the residential building were estimated using an energy–environment model from 2010 to 2030. The business as usual scenario is based on the energy consumption characteristic of residential buildings using the trends related to socio-economic prospects and the number of dwellings. The alternative scenarios took into account energy efficiency for new residential buildings (scenario I, refurbishment of existing residential buildings (scenario II, use of highly efficient boilers (scenario III, and use of a solar thermal energy system (scenario IV. The results show that energy consumption in the residential building sector will increase by 33% between 2007 and 2030 in the BAU scenario. Maximum reduction in CO2 emissions in the residential building sector of South Korea was observed by 2030 in scenario I. In each alternative scenario analysis, CO2 emissions were 12.9% lower than in the business as usual scenario by the year 2030.

Scientific data and climate scenarios. Study report nr 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alex, Bastien; Baillat, Alice; Francois Gemenne; Jean Jouzel

2017-05-01

The objective of this report is to present climate evolutions and their impacts according to two warming scenarios: a 2 degree increase of the average surface temperature by 2100 (i.e. the most optimistic IPCC scenario), and a 5 degree increase by 2100 (the most pessimistic scenario). As far as possible, physical, social and economic, and health impacts are assessed by 2030 and 2050. The authors notice that the differences between both scenarios are hardly discernible by 2030, but more obviously by 2050. After a brief recall on IPCC scenarios, a first part addresses the evolutions of the world climate by considering the atmosphere (temperature increase, modification of precipitation regimes), seas and oceans (temperature, currents and thermal circulation, ocean acidification, seal level rise), extreme climate events (observations and trends, main impacts on populations and infrastructures), and the cryo-sphere (observations and impacts). The second part discusses regional predictions in terms of trends and impacts for metropolitan France and its overseas territories, for Africa, and for the Asia-Pacific region. The last part briefly discusses the possibly necessary evolution of the typology chosen to determine sources of vulnerability and the level of exposure to different risks. Many appendices propose more detailed presentations on specific issues and examples. A summarised version of the report is also provided

Energy gap in MgB2 superconductor: Andreev reflection studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aswal, D.K.

2003-01-01

To investigate the nature of energy gap in MgB 2 superconductor, we have performed Andreev-reflection studies on MgB 2 / Ag planar junctions. The differential resistance (dV/dI) versus voltage (V) characteristics were recorded as a function of temperature, magnetic field and junction-type. The dV/dI vs V characteristic recorded at low temperature and zero-field for a clean MgB 2 / Ag planar junction exhibited several interesting features, such as, zero bias anomaly, a distinct double-minima, sharp resonance peaks near the energy gap etc. The data, however, could not be explained using Blonder-Tinkham-Klapwijk theory of isotropic superconductor, which indicated that energy gap in MgB 2 is not consistent with the weak-coupling BCS theory. This is further supported by unusual temperature and magnetic field dependence of the tunneling characteristics. The results indicate several possibilities for the energy gap in MgB 2 , such as, an anisotropic energy gap, two-energy or an unconventional gap scenario. (author)

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Taiwan

OpenAIRE

An-Yuan Tsai Wen-Cheng Huang

2011-01-01

This paper establishes a comprehensive assessment model to measure the regional impact of climate change on Taiwan¡¦s water resources. Working from future rainfall data simulated by Japan¡¦s high-resolution GCM model JMA/MRI TL959L60 in a SRES-A1B scenario, we first apply climate change to an assessment model of renewable water resources to estimate the volume of renewable water resources on a regional basis. We then conduct a water resources system simulation based on estimates of future wat...

The extreme ultraviolet spectrum of G191 - B2B and the ionization of the local interstellar medium

Science.gov (United States)

Green, James; Jelinsky, Patrick; Bowyer, Stuart

1990-01-01

The measurement of the extreme ultraviolet spectrum of the nearby hot white dwarf G191 - B2B is reported. The results are used to derive interstellar neutral column densities of 1.6 + or - 0.2 x 10 to the 18th/sq cm and 9.8 + 2.8 or - 2.6 x 10 to the 16th/sq cm for H I and He I, respectively. This ratio of neutral hydrogen to neutral helium indicates that the ionization of hydrogen along the line of sight is less than about 30 percent unless significant helium ionization is present. The scenario in which the hydrogen is highly ionized and the helium is neutral is ruled out by this observation.

Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Liu, De Li; Chen, Dong; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

2016-01-01

We estimated net annual temperature-related mortality in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Australia using 62 global climate model projections under three IPPC SRES CO_2 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). In all cities, all scenarios resulted in increases in summer temperature-related deaths for future decades, and decreases in winter temperature-related deaths. However, Brisbane and Sydney will increase the net annual temperature-related deaths in the future, while a slight decrease will happen in Melbourne. Additionally, temperature-related mortality will largely increase beyond the summer (including January, February, March, November and December) in Brisbane and Sydney, while temperature-related mortality will largely decrease beyond the winter in Melbourne. In conclusion, temperature increases for Australia are expected to result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city. In particular, the seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths will be shifted. - Temperature increases result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city in Australia.

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karine Princé

Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

The extreme ultraviolet spectrum of G191 - B2B and the ionization of the local interstellar medium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, J.; Jelinsky, P.; Bowyer, S.

1990-01-01

The measurement of the extreme ultraviolet spectrum of the nearby hot white dwarf G191 - B2B is reported. The results are used to derive interstellar neutral column densities of 1.6 + or - 0.2 x 10 to the 18th/sq cm and 9.8 + 2.8 or - 2.6 x 10 to the 16th/sq cm for H I and He I, respectively. This ratio of neutral hydrogen to neutral helium indicates that the ionization of hydrogen along the line of sight is less than about 30 percent unless significant helium ionization is present. The scenario in which the hydrogen is highly ionized and the helium is neutral is ruled out by this observation. 54 refs

Estimating future burned areas under changing climate in the EU-Mediterranean countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Amatulli, Giuseppe; Camia, Andrea; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús

2013-04-15

The impacts of climate change on forest fires have received increased attention in recent years at both continental and local scales. It is widely recognized that weather plays a key role in extreme fire situations. It is therefore of great interest to analyze projected changes in fire danger under climate change scenarios and to assess the consequent impacts of forest fires. In this study we estimated burned areas in the European Mediterranean (EU-Med) countries under past and future climate conditions. Historical (1985-2004) monthly burned areas in EU-Med countries were modeled by using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (CFWI). Monthly averages of the CFWI sub-indices were used as explanatory variables to estimate the monthly burned areas in each of the five most affected countries in Europe using three different modeling approaches (Multiple Linear Regression - MLR, Random Forest - RF, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines - MARS). MARS outperformed the other methods. Regression equations and significant coefficients of determination were obtained, although there were noticeable differences from country to country. Climatic conditions at the end of the 21st Century were simulated using results from the runs of the regional climate model HIRHAM in the European project PRUDENCE, considering two IPCC SRES scenarios (A2-B2). The MARS models were applied to both scenarios resulting in projected burned areas in each country and in the EU-Med region. Results showed that significant increases, 66% and 140% of the total burned area, can be expected in the EU-Med region under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CHEMICAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE C/O RATIO ON HOT JUPITERS: EXAMPLES FROM WASP-12b, CoRoT-2b, XO-1b, AND HD 189733b

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moses, J. I. [Space Science Institute, 4750 Walnut Street, Suite 205, Boulder, CO 80301 (United States); Madhusudhan, N. [Department of Physics and Department of Astronomy, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520-8101 (United States); Visscher, C. [Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO 80302 (United States); Freedman, R. S., E-mail: jmoses@spacescience.org [SETI Institute, Mountain View, CA 94043 (United States)

2013-01-20

Motivated by recent spectroscopic evidence for carbon-rich atmospheres on some transiting exoplanets, we investigate the influence of the C/O ratio on the chemistry, composition, and spectra of extrasolar giant planets both from a thermochemical equilibrium perspective and from consideration of disequilibrium processes like photochemistry and transport-induced quenching. We find that although CO is predicted to be a major atmospheric constituent on hot Jupiters for all C/O ratios, other oxygen-bearing molecules like H{sub 2}O and CO{sub 2} are much more abundant when C/O < 1, whereas CH{sub 4}, HCN, and C{sub 2}H{sub 2} gain significantly in abundance when C/O > 1. Other notable species like N{sub 2} and NH{sub 3} that do not contain carbon or oxygen are relatively unaffected by the C/O ratio. Disequilibrium processes tend to enhance the abundance of CH{sub 4}, NH{sub 3}, HCN, and C{sub 2}H{sub 2} over a wide range of C/O ratios. We compare the results of our models with secondary-eclipse photometric data from the Spitzer Space Telescope and conclude that (1) disequilibrium models with C/O {approx} 1 are consistent with spectra of WASP-12b, XO-1b, and CoRoT-2b, confirming the possible carbon-rich nature of these planets; (2) spectra from HD 189733b are consistent with C/O {approx}< 1, but as the assumed metallicity is increased above solar, the required C/O ratio must increase toward 1 to prevent too much H{sub 2}O absorption; (3) species like HCN can have a significant influence on spectral behavior in the 3.6 and 8.0 {mu}m Spitzer channels, potentially providing even more opacity than CH{sub 4} when C/O > 1; and (4) the very high CO{sub 2} abundance inferred for HD 189733b from near-infrared observations cannot be explained through equilibrium or disequilibrium chemistry in a hydrogen-dominated atmosphere. We discuss possible formation mechanisms for carbon-rich hot Jupiters, including scenarios in which the accretion of CO-rich, H{sub 2}O-poor gas dominates the

Dark matter scenarios with multiple spin-2 fields

Science.gov (United States)

González Albornoz, N. L.; Schmidt-May, Angnis; von Strauss, Mikael

2018-01-01

We study ghost-free multimetric theories for (N+1) tensor fields with a coupling to matter and maximal global symmetry group SN×(Z2)N. Their mass spectra contain a massless mode, the graviton, and N massive spin-2 modes. One of the massive modes is distinct by being the heaviest, the remaining (N‑1) massive modes are simply identical copies of each other. All relevant physics can therefore be understood from the case N=2. Focussing on this case, we compute the full perturbative action up to cubic order and derive several features that hold to all orders in perturbation theory. The lighter massive mode does not couple to matter and neither of the massive modes decay into massless gravitons. We propose the lighter massive particle as a candidate for dark matter and investigate its phenomenology in the parameter region where the matter coupling is dominated by the massless graviton. The relic density of massive spin-2 can originate from a freeze-in mechanism or from gravitational particle production, giving rise to two different dark matter scenarios. The allowed parameter regions are very different from those in scenarios with only one massive spin-2 field and more accessible to experiments.

Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melaina, Marc

2015-04-21

This presentation describes the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, and provides an overview of each of the three H2FAST formats: the H2FAST web tool, the H2FAST Excel spreadsheet, and the H2FAST Business Case Scenario (BCS) tool. Examples are presented to illustrate the types of questions that H2FAST can help answer.

The role of plant functional trade-offs for biodiversity changes and biome shifts under scenarios of global climatic change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Reu

2011-05-01

Full Text Available The global geographic distribution of biodiversity and biomes is determined by species-specific physiological tolerances to climatic constraints. Current vegetation models employ empirical bioclimatic relationships to predict present-day vegetation patterns and to forecast biodiversity changes and biome shifts under climatic change. In this paper, we consider trade-offs in plant functioning and their responses under climatic changes to forecast and explain changes in plant functional richness and shifts in biome geographic distributions.

The Jena Diversity model (JeDi simulates plant survival according to essential plant functional trade-offs, including ecophysiological processes such as water uptake, photosynthesis, allocation, reproduction and phenology. We use JeDi to quantify changes in plant functional richness and biome shifts between present-day and a range of possible future climates from two SRES emission scenarios (A2 and B1 and seven global climate models using metrics of plant functional richness and functional identity.

Our results show (i a significant loss of plant functional richness in the tropics, (ii an increase in plant functional richness at mid and high latitudes, and (iii a pole-ward shift of biomes. While these results are consistent with the findings of empirical approaches, we are able to explain them in terms of the plant functional trade-offs involved in the allocation, metabolic and reproduction strategies of plants. We conclude that general aspects of plant physiological tolerances can be derived from functional trade-offs, which may provide a useful process- and trait-based alternative to bioclimatic relationships. Such a mechanistic approach may be particularly relevant when addressing vegetation responses to climatic changes that encounter novel combinations of climate parameters that do not exist under contemporary climate.

Occult hepatitis B infection: an evolutionary scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lukashov Vladimir V

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Occult or latent hepatitis B virus (HBV infection is defined as infection with detectable HBV DNA and undetectable surface antigen (HBsAg in patients' blood. The cause of an overt HBV infection becoming an occult one is unknown. To gain insight into the mechanism of the development of occult infection, we compared the full-length HBV genome from a blood donor carrying an occult infection (d4 with global genotype D genomes. Results The phylogenetic analysis of polymerase, core and X protein sequences did not distinguish d4 from other genotype D strains. Yet, d4 surface protein formed the evolutionary outgroup relative to all other genotype D strains. Its evolutionary branch was the only one where accumulation of substitutions suggests positive selection (dN/dS = 1.3787. Many of these substitutiions accumulated specifically in regions encoding the core/surface protein interface, as revealed in a 3D-modeled protein complex. We identified a novel RNA splicing event (deleting nucleotides 2986-202 that abolishes surface protein gene expression without affecting polymerase, core and X-protein related functions. Genotype D strains differ in their ability to perform this 2986-202 splicing. Strains prone to 2986-202 splicing constitute a separate clade in a phylogenetic tree of genotype D HBVs. A single substitution (G173T that is associated with clade membership alters the local RNA secondary structure and is proposed to affect splicing efficiency at the 202 acceptor site. Conclusion We propose an evolutionary scenario for occult HBV infection, in which 2986-202 splicing generates intracellular virus particles devoid of surface protein, which subsequently accumulates mutations due to relaxation of coding constraints. Such viruses are deficient of autonomous propagation and cannot leave the host cell until it is lysed.

Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

2010-12-01

Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and

Derived crop management data for the LandCarbon Project

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Gail; Liu, Shu-Guang; Oeding, Jennifer

2011-01-01

The LandCarbon project is assessing potential carbon pools and greenhouse gas fluxes under various scenarios and land management regimes to provide information to support the formulation of policies governing climate change mitigation, adaptation and land management strategies. The project is unique in that spatially explicit maps of annual land cover and land-use change are created at the 250-meter pixel resolution. The project uses vast amounts of data as input to the models, including satellite, climate, land cover, soil, and land management data. Management data have been obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) that provides information regarding crop type, crop harvesting, manure, fertilizer, tillage, and cover crop (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2011a, b, c). The LandCarbon team queried the USDA databases to pull historic crop-related management data relative to the needs of the project. The data obtained was in table form with the County or State Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) and the year as the primary and secondary keys. Future projections were generated for the A1B, A2, B1, and B2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios using the historic data values along with coefficients generated by the project. The PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) modeling framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment, 2006) was used to develop coefficients for each IPCC SRES scenario, which were applied to the historic management data to produce future land management practice projections. The LandCarbon project developed algorithms for deriving gridded data, using these tabular management data products as input. The derived gridded crop type, crop harvesting, manure, fertilizer, tillage, and cover crop

Projected rainfall and temperature changes over Malaysia at the end of the 21st century based on PRECIS modelling system

Science.gov (United States)

Loh, Jui Le; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew; Hein, David; Lee, Dong-In

2016-05-01

This study investigates projected changes in rainfall and temperature over Malaysia by the end of the 21st century based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B2 emission scenarios using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). The PRECIS regional climate model (HadRM3P) is configured in 0.22° × 0.22° horizontal grid resolution and is forced at the lateral boundaries by the UKMO-HadAM3P and UKMOHadCM3Q0 global models. The model performance in simulating the present-day climate was assessed by comparing the modelsimulated results to the Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset. Generally, the HadAM3P/PRECIS and HadCM3Q0/PRECIS simulated the spatio-temporal variability structure of both temperature and rainfall reasonably well, albeit with the presence of cold biases. The cold biases appear to be associated with the systematic error in the HadRM3P. The future projection of temperature indicates widespread warming over the entire country by the end of the 21st century. The projected temperature increment ranges from 2.5 to 3.9°C, 2.7 to 4.2°C and 1.7 to 3.1°C for A2, A1B and B2 scenarios, respectively. However, the projection of rainfall at the end of the 21st century indicates substantial spatio-temporal variation with a tendency for drier condition in boreal winter and spring seasons while wetter condition in summer and fall seasons. During the months of December to May, ~20-40% decrease of rainfall is projected over Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo, particularly for the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. During the summer months, rainfall is projected to increase by ~20-40% across most regions in Malaysia, especially for A2 and A1B scenarios. The spatio-temporal variations in the projected rainfall can be related to the changes in the weakening monsoon circulations, which in turn alter the patterns of

Climate related diseases. Current regional variability and projections to the year 2100

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Błażejczyk Krzysztof

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The health of individuals and societies depends on different factors including atmospheric conditions which influence humans in direct and indirect ways. The paper presents regional variability of some climate related diseases (CRD in Poland: salmonellosis intoxications, Lyme boreliosis, skin cancers (morbidity and mortality, influenza, overcooling deaths, as well as respiratory and circulatory mortality. The research consisted of two stages: 1 statistical modelling basing on past data and 2 projections of CRD for three SRES scenarios of climate change (A1B, A2, B1 to the year 2100. Several simple and multiply regression models were found for the relationships between climate variables and CRD. The models were applied to project future levels of CRD. At the end of 21st century we must expect increase in: circulatory mortality, Lyme boreliosis infections and skin cancer morbidity and mortality. There is also projected decrease in: respiratory mortality, overcooling deaths and influenza infections.

Transport Pathways for Light Duty Vehicles: Towards a 2° Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

François Cuenot

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The transport sector is the second largest and one of the fastest growing energy end-use sectors, representing 24% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency has developed scenarios for the transport sector within the overall concept of mitigation pathways that would be required to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper builds on these scenarios and illustrates various passenger travel-related strategies for achieving a 2° transport scenario, in particular looking at how much technology improvement is needed in the light of different changes in travel and modal shares in OECD and non-OECD countries. It finds that an integrated approach using all feasible policy options is likely to deliver the required emission reductions at least cost, and that stronger travel-related measures result in significantly lower technological requirements.

Atmospheric CO2 fertilization effects on biomass yields of 10 crops in northern Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan F. Degener

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The quality and quantity of the influence that atmospheric CO2 has on cropgrowth is still a matter of debate. This study's aim is to estimate if CO2 will have an effect on biomass yields at all, to quantify and spatially locate the effects and to explore if an elevated photosynthesis rate or water-use-efficiency is predominantly responsible. This study uses a numerical carbon based crop model (BioSTAR to estimate biomass yields within theadministrative boundaries of Niedersachsen in Northern Germany. 10 crops are included (winter grains: wheat, barley,rye, triticale - early, medium, late maize variety - sunflower, sorghum, spring wheat, modeled annuallyfor the entire 21st century on 91,014 separate sites. Modeling was conducted twice, once with an annually adaptedCO2 concentration according to the SRES-A1B scenario and once with a fixed concentration of 390 ppm to separate the influence of CO2 from that of the other input variables.Rising CO2 concentrations will play a central role in keeping future yields of all crops above or aroundtoday's level. Differences in yields between modeling with fixed or adapted CO2 can be as high as60 % towards the century's end. Generally yields will increase when CO2 rises and decline whenit is kept constant. As C4-crops are equivalently affected it is presumed that anelevated efficiency in water use is the main responsible factor for all plants.

Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

Translational repression of the Drosophila nanos mRNA involves the RNA helicase Belle and RNA coating by Me31B and Trailer hitch.

Science.gov (United States)

Götze, Michael; Dufourt, Jérémy; Ihling, Christian; Rammelt, Christiane; Pierson, Stephanie; Sambrani, Nagraj; Temme, Claudia; Sinz, Andrea; Simonelig, Martine; Wahle, Elmar

2017-10-01

Translational repression of maternal mRNAs is an essential regulatory mechanism during early embryonic development. Repression of the Drosophila nanos mRNA, required for the formation of the anterior-posterior body axis, depends on the protein Smaug binding to two Smaug recognition elements (SREs) in the nanos 3' UTR. In a comprehensive mass spectrometric analysis of the SRE-dependent repressor complex, we identified Smaug, Cup, Me31B, Trailer hitch, eIF4E, and PABPC, in agreement with earlier data. As a novel component, the RNA-dependent ATPase Belle (DDX3) was found, and its involvement in deadenylation and repression of nanos was confirmed in vivo. Smaug, Cup, and Belle bound stoichiometrically to the SREs, independently of RNA length. Binding of Me31B and Tral was also SRE-dependent, but their amounts were proportional to the length of the RNA and equimolar to each other. We suggest that "coating" of the RNA by a Me31B•Tral complex may be at the core of repression. © 2017 Götze et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press for the RNA Society.

The Vaporization of B2O3(l) to B2O3(g) and B2O2(g)

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobson, Nathan S.; Myers, Dwight L.

2011-01-01

The vaporization of B2O3 in a reducing environment leads to formation of both B2O3(g) and B2O2(g). While formation of B2O3(g) is well understood, many questions about the formation of B2O2(g) remain. Previous studies using B(s) + B2O3(l) have led to inconsistent thermodynamic data. In this study, it was found that after heating, B(s) and B2O3(l) appear to separate and variations in contact area likely led to the inconsistent vapor pressures of B2O2(g). To circumvent this problem, an activity of boron is fixed with a two-phase mixture of FeB and Fe2B. Both second and third law enthalpies of formation were measured for B2O2(g) and B2O3(g). From these the enthalpies of formation at 298.15 K are calculated to be -479.9 +/- 41.5 kJ/mol for B2O2(g) and -833.4 +/- 13.1 kJ/mol for B2O3(g). Ab initio calculations to determine the enthalpies of formation of B2O2(g) and B2O3(g) were conducted using the W1BD composite method and show good agreement with the experimental values.

Human mortality effects of future concentrations of tropospheric ozone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

West, J.; Szopa, S.; Hauglustaine, D.A.

2007-01-01

Here we explore the effects of projected future changes in global ozone concentrations on premature human mortality, under three scenarios for 2030. We use daily surface ozone concentrations from a global atmospheric transport and chemistry model, and ozone-mortality relationships from daily time-series studies. The population-weighted annual average 8-h daily maximum ozone is projected to increase, relative to the present, in each of ten world regions under the SRES A2 scenario and the current legislation (CLE) scenario, with the largest growth in tropical regions, while decreases are projected in each region in the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenario. Emission reductions in the CLE scenario, relative to A2, are estimated to reduce about 190,000 premature human mortalities globally in 2030, with the most avoided mortalities in Africa. The MFR scenario will avoid about 460,000 premature mortalities relative to A2 in 2030, and 270,000 relative to CLE, with the greatest reductions in South Asia. (authors)

Benzo[a]pyrene exposure under future ocean acidification scenarios weakens the immune responses of blood clam, Tegillarca granosa.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Wenhao; Zha, Shanjie; Wang, Yichen; Shi, Wei; Xiao, Guoqiang; Chai, Xueliang; Wu, Hongxi; Liu, Guangxu

2017-04-01

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are known to converge into the ocean and accumulate in the sediment, posing great threats to marine organisms such as the sessile bottom burrowing bivalves. However, the immune toxicity of POPs, such as B[a]P, under future ocean acidification scenarios remains poorly understood to date. Therefore, in the present study, the impacts of B[a]P exposure on the immune responses of a bivalve species, Tegillarca granosa, under present and future ocean acidification scenarios were investigated. Results obtained revealed an increased immune toxicity of B[a]P under future ocean acidification scenarios in terms of reduced THC, altered haemocyte composition, and hampered phagocytosis, which may attribute to the synergetic effects of B[a]P and ocean acidification. In addition, the gene expressions of pathogen pattern recognition receptors (TLR1, TLR2, TLR4, TLR6), pathway mediators (TRAF6, TAK1, TAB2, IKKα and Myd88), and effectors (NF-ĸB) of the important immune related pathways were significantly down-regulated upon exposure to B[a]P under future ocean acidification scenarios. Results of the present study suggested an increased immune toxicity of B[a]P under future ocean acidification scenarios, which will significantly hamper the immune responses of T. granosa and subsequently render individuals more susceptible to pathogens challenges. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

2013-09-17

Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

Impact of prescribed Arctic sea ice thickness in simulations of the present and future climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krinner, Gerhard [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany); INSU-CNRS and UJF Grenoble, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE), 54 rue Moliere, BP 96, Saint Martin d' Heres Cedex (France); Rinke, Annette; Dethloff, Klaus [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany); Gorodetskaya, Irina V. [INSU-CNRS and UJF Grenoble, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE), 54 rue Moliere, BP 96, Saint Martin d' Heres Cedex (France)

2010-09-15

This paper describes atmospheric general circulation model climate change experiments in which the Arctic sea-ice thickness is either fixed to 3 m or somewhat more realistically parameterized in order to take into account essentially the spatial variability of Arctic sea-ice thickness, which is, to a first approximation, a function of ice type (perennial or seasonal). It is shown that, both at present and at the end of the twenty-first century (under the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas scenario), the impact of a variable sea-ice thickness compared to a uniform value is essentially limited to the cold seasons and the lower troposphere. However, because first-year ice is scarce in the Central Arctic today, but not under SRES-A1B conditions at the end of the twenty-first century, and because the impact of a sea-ice thickness reduction can be masked by changes of the open water fraction, the spatial and temporal patterns of the effect of sea-ice thinning on the atmosphere differ between the two periods considered. As a consequence, not only the climate simulated at a given period, but also the simulated Arctic climate change over the twenty-first century is affected by the way sea-ice thickness is prescribed. (orig.)

B2B or Not to Be: Does B2B E-Commerce Increase Labour Productivity?

OpenAIRE

Bertschek, Irene; Fryges, Helmut; Kaiser, Ulrich

2004-01-01

We implement an endogeneous switching-regression model for labour productivity and firms' decision to use business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce. Our approach allows B2B usage to affect any parameter of the labour productivity equation and to properly take account of strategic complementarities between the input factors and B2B usage. Empirical evidence from 1,394 German firms shows that firms using B2B e-commerce have a significantly higher output elasticity with respect to ICT-investment and...

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

A land-use and land-cover modeling strategy to support a national assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes

Science.gov (United States)

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Hawbaker, Todd; Wein, Anne; Liu, Shu-Guang; Kanengieter, Ronald; Acevedo, William

2012-01-01

Changes in land use, land cover, disturbance regimes, and land management have considerable influence on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes within ecosystems. Through targeted land-use and land-management activities, ecosystems can be managed to enhance carbon sequestration and mitigate fluxes of other GHGs. National-scale, comprehensive analyses of carbon sequestration potential by ecosystem are needed, with a consistent, nationally applicable land-use and land-cover (LULC) modeling framework a key component of such analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey has initiated a project to analyze current and projected future GHG fluxes by ecosystem and quantify potential mitigation strategies. We have developed a unique LULC modeling framework to support this work. Downscaled scenarios consistent with IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were constructed for U.S. ecoregions, and the FORE-SCE model was used to spatially map the scenarios. Results for a prototype demonstrate our ability to model LULC change and inform a biogeochemical modeling framework for analysis of subsequent GHG fluxes. The methodology was then successfully used to model LULC change for four IPCC SRES scenarios for an ecoregion in the Great Plains. The scenario-based LULC projections are now being used to analyze potential GHG impacts of LULC change across the U.S.

Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Speer, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-04-18

Construction of the first offshore wind farm in the United States began in 2015, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for California: 16 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario A) and 10 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). The results of this analysis can be used to better understand the general scales of economic opportunities that could result from offshore wind development. Results show total state gross domestic product (GDP) impacts of $16.2 billion in Scenario B or $39.7 billion in Scenario A for construction; and $3.5 billion in Scenario B or $7.9 billion in Scenario A for the operations phases.

Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Meinshausen

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Current scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs and carbon cycle models, named "CMIP3" and "C⁴MIP", respectively. Despite their tremendous value for the scientific community and policy makers alike, there are some difficulties in interpreting the results. For example, radiative forcings were not standardized across the various AOGCM integrations and carbon cycle runs, and, in some models, key forcings were omitted. Furthermore, the AOGCM analysis of plausible emissions pathways was restricted to only three SRES scenarios. This study attempts to address these issues. We present an updated version of MAGICC, the simple carbon cycle-climate model used in past IPCC Assessment Reports with enhanced representation of time-varying climate sensitivities, carbon cycle feedbacks, aerosol forcings and ocean heat uptake characteristics. This new version, MAGICC6, is successfully calibrated against the higher complexity AOGCMs and carbon cycle models. Parameterizations of MAGICC6 are provided. The mean of the emulations presented here using MAGICC6 deviates from the mean AOGCM responses by only 2.2% on average for the SRES scenarios. This enhanced emulation skill in comparison to previous calibrations is primarily due to: making a "like-with-like comparison" using AOGCM-specific subsets of forcings; employing a new calibration procedure; as well as the fact that the updated simple climate model can now successfully emulate some of the climate-state dependent effective climate sensitivities of AOGCMs. The diagnosed effective climate sensitivity at the time of CO₂ doubling for the AOGCMs is on average 2.88 °C, about

Effects of future climate and land use scenarios on riverine source water quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

2014-09-15

Surface water quality is particularly sensitive to land use practices and climatic events that affect its catchment. The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics (climate, land use, morphology and pedology) and climatic variables on two key water quality parameters (turbidity and fecal coliforms (FC)) was examined in 24 eastern Canadian catchments at various spatial scales (1 km, 5 km, 10 km and the entire catchment). A regression analysis revealed that the entire catchment was a better predictor of water quality. Based on this information, linear mixed effect models for predicting turbidity and FC levels were developed. A set of land use and climate scenarios was considered and applied within the water quality models. Four land use scenarios (no change, same rate of variation, optimistic and pessimistic) and three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) were tested and variations for the near future (2025) were assessed and compared to the reference period (2000). Climate change impacts on water quality remained low annually for this time horizon (turbidity: +1.5%, FC: +1.6%, A2 scenario). On the other hand, the influence of land use changes appeared to predominate. Significant benefits for both parameters could be expected following the optimistic scenario (turbidity: -16.4%, FC: -6.3%; p climate change impacts could become equivalent to those modeled for land use for this horizon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.

2013-11-01

The effectiveness of population policy in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest representative concentration pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional-level growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that the heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world is the dominant driver of water stress, irrespective of future greenhouse gas emissions, with highest impacts occurring in the already water-stressed low latitudes. In 2100, Africa, Middle East and parts of Asia are under extreme water stress under all scenarios. The sensitivity analysis reveals that a small reduction in populations over the region could relieve a large number of people from high water stress, while a further increase in population from the assumed levels (SC1) might not increase the number of people under high water stress considerably. Most of the population increase towards 2100 occurs in the already water-stressed lower latitudes. Therefore, population reduction policies are recommended for this region as a method of adaptation to the future water stress conditions. Population reduction policies will facilitate more control over their future development pathways, even if these countries were not able to contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts due to economic constraints. However, for the European region, the population living in water

B11 NMR in the layered diborides OsB2 and RuB2

Science.gov (United States)

Suh, B. J.; Zong, X.; Singh, Y.; Niazi, A.; Johnston, D. C.

2007-10-01

B11 nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) measurements have been performed on B11 enriched OsB2 and RuB2 polycrystalline powder samples in an external field of 4.7T and in the temperature range, 4.2KOsB2 and RuB2 , respectively. The experimental results indicate that a p character dominates the conduction electron wave function at the B site with a negligibly small s character in both compounds.

Pastoral suitability driven by future climate change along the Apennines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camilla Dibari

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This work aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on pastoral resources located along the Apennines chain. To this end, random forest machine learning model was first calibrated for the present period and then applied to future conditions, as projected by HadCM3 general circulation model, in order to simulate possible spatial variation/shift of pastoral areas in two time slices (centred on 2050 and 2080 under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Pre-existent spatial database, namely Corine land cover map and WorldClim, were integrated and harmonised in a GIS environment in order to extract climate variables (mean seasonal precipitation, mean maximum temperature of the warmest month and minimum temperature of the coldest month and response variables (presence/absence of pastures to be used as model predictors. Random forest model resulted robust and coherent to simulate pastureland suitability under current climatology (classification accuracy error=19%. Accordingly, results indicated that increases in temperatures coupled with decreases in precipitation, as simulated by HadCM3 in the future, would have impacts of great concern on potential pasture distribution. In the specific, an overall decline of pasturelands suitability is predicted by the middle of the century in both A2 (–46% and B2 (–41% along the entire chain. However, despite alarming reductions in pastures suitability along the northern (–69% and –71% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively and central Apennines (–90% under both scenarios by the end of the century, expansions are predicted along the southern areas of the chain (+96% and +105% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. This may be probably due to expansions in pastures dominated by xeric and thermophiles species, which will likely benefit from warmer and drier future conditions predicted in the southern zone of the chain by the HadCM3. Hence, the expected climate, coupled with an increasing abandonment of the

Effects of land cover change on the tropical circulation in a GCM

Science.gov (United States)

Jonko, Alexandra Karolina; Hense, Andreas; Feddema, Johannes Jan

2010-09-01

Multivariate statistics are used to investigate sensitivity of the tropical atmospheric circulation to scenario-based global land cover change (LCC), with the largest changes occurring in the tropics. Three simulations performed with the fully coupled Parallel Climate Model (PCM) are compared: (1) a present day control run; (2) a simulation with present day land cover and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 greenhouse gas (GHG) projections; and (3) a simulation with SRES A2 land cover and GHG projections. Dimensionality of PCM data is reduced by projection onto a priori specified eigenvectors, consisting of Rossby and Kelvin waves produced by a linearized, reduced gravity model of the tropical circulation. A Hotelling T 2 test is performed on projection amplitudes. Effects of LCC evaluated by this method are limited to diabatic heating. A statistically significant and recurrent signal is detected for 33% of all tests performed for various combinations of parameters. Taking into account uncertainties and limitations of the present methodology, this signal can be interpreted as a Rossby wave response to prescribed LCC. The Rossby waves are shallow, large-scale motions, trapped at the equator and most pronounced in boreal summer. Differences in mass and flow fields indicate a shift of the tropical Walker circulation patterns with an anomalous subsidence over tropical South America.

Global health and economic impacts of future ozone pollution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selin, N E; Nam, K M; Reilly, J M; Paltsev, S; Prinn, R G; Webster, M D; Wu, S

2009-01-01

We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000-2050 changes in ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis - Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the GEOS-Chem global tropospheric chemistry model of climate and chemistry effects of projected future emissions. We use EPPA-HE to assess the human health damages (including mortality and morbidity) caused by ozone pollution, and quantify their economic impacts in sixteen world regions. We compare the costs of ozone pollution under scenarios with 2000 and 2050 ozone precursor and greenhouse gas emissions (using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario). We estimate that health costs due to global ozone pollution above pre-industrial levels by 2050 will be $580 billion (year 2000$) and that mortalities from acute exposure will exceed 2 million. We find that previous methodologies underestimate costs of air pollution by more than a third because they do not take into account the long-term, compounding effects of health costs. The economic effects of emissions changes far exceed the influence of climate alone.

Multi-modal Virtual Scenario Enhances Neurofeedback Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Avihay Cohen

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In the past decade neurofeedback has become the focus of a growing body of research. With real-time fMRI enabling on-line monitoring of emotion related areas such as the amygdala, many have begun testing its therapeutic benefits. However most existing neurofeedback procedures still use monotonic uni-modal interfaces, thus possibly limiting user engagement and weakening learning efficiency. The current study tested a novel multi-sensory neurofeedback animated scenario aimed at enhancing user experience and improving learning. We examined whether relative to a simple uni-modal 2D interface, learning via an interface of complex multi-modal 3D scenario will result in improved neurofeedback learning. As a neural-probe, we used the recently developed fMRI-inspired EEG model of amygdala activity (amygdala-EEG finger print; amygdala-EFP, enabling low-cost and mobile limbic neurofeedback training. Amygdala-EFP was reflected in the animated scenario by the unrest level of a hospital waiting-room in which virtual characters become impatient, approach the admission-desk and complain loudly. Successful down-regulation was reflected as an ease in the room unrest-level. We tested whether relative to a standard uni-modal 2D graphic thermometer interface, this animated scenario could facilitate more effective learning and improve the training experience. Thirty participants underwent two separated neurofeedback sessions (one-week apart practicing down-regulation of the amygdala-EFP signal. In the first session, half trained via the animated scenario and half via a thermometer interface. Learning efficiency was tested by three parameters: (a effect-size of the change in amygdala-EFP following training, (b sustainability of the learned down-regulation in the absence of online feedback, and (c transferability to an unfamiliar context. Comparing amygdala-EFP signal amplitude between the last and the first neurofeedback trials revealed that the animated scenario

The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in Europe under present and future climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tuck, Gill; Glendining, Margaret J.; Smith, Pete; Wattenbach, Martin; House, Jo I.

2006-01-01

We have derived maps of the potential distribution of 26 promising bioenergy crops in Europe, based on simple rules for suitable climatic conditions and elevation. Crops suitable for temperate and Mediterranean climates were selected from four groups: oilseeds (e.g. oilseed rape, sunflower), starch crops (e.g. potatoes), cereals (e.g. barley) and solid biofuel crops (e.g. sorghum, Miscanthus). The impact of climate change under different scenarios and GCMs on the potential future distribution of these crops was determined, based on predicted future climatic conditions. Climate scenarios based on four IPCC SRES emission scenarios, A1FI, A2, B1 and B2, implemented by four global climate models, HadCM3, CSIRO2, PCM and CGCM2, were used. The potential distribution of temperate oilseeds, cereals, starch crops and solid biofuels is predicted to increase in northern Europe by the 2080s, due to increasing temperatures, and decrease in southern Europe (e.g. Spain, Portugal, southern France, Italy, and Greece) due to increased drought. Mediterranean oil and solid biofuel crops, currently restricted to southern Europe, are predicted to extend further north due to higher summer temperatures. Effects become more pronounced with time and are greatest under the A1FI scenario and for models predicting the greatest climate forcing. Different climate models produce different regional patterns. All models predict that bioenergy crop production in Spain is especially vulnerable to climate change, with many temperate crops predicted to decline dramatically by the 2080s. The choice of bioenergy crops in southern Europe will be severely reduced in future unless measures are taken to adapt to climate change. (author)

Simulations of future climate with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stendel, M.; Schmith, T.; Hesselbjerg Christensen, J.

2001-01-01

A coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model to study the time-dependent climate response to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, chlorofluorocarbons and aerosols according to the new IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2 has been used. The results of these experiments are compared to an unforced 300-year control experiment. The changes in the last three decades of the scenario simulations (2071-2100) are furthermore compared to the simulation of present-day climate (1961-1990). In accordance with previous experiments we find that greenhouse warming is reduced when aerosol effects are considered. Sulfur emissions, however, are lower than in the IS92a scenario. Consequently, the greenhouse warming effect, which leads to a bigger temperature increase than in the GSDIO experiment can outweigh the aerosol cooling effect. The result shows that there still are serious difficulties and uncertainties in this type of model simulation. Those are partially due to oversimplifications in the model, concerning the radiative properties of aerosols in particular, and therefore the indirect aerosol effect. Another inherent problem, however, is the uncertainty in the scenarios themselves. This is the case for short-lived substances with an inhomogeneous spatial and temporal distribution, such as aerosols. Therefore, on a decadal horizon, changes in the emissions of those substance can exert a significant effect on anthropogenic climate change. (LN)

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

reliance on road transportation, centralized power systems, etc. It is no surprise that with such an assumption, the absolute decoupling of growth and CO 2 emissions demands a rapidly increasing value of carbon in the economy. After many fruitful discussions between industry representatives and researchers, these scenarios have been corrected and finalized in September 2007. A brief explanation of the adjustments introduced is included in the report. The second part of the report was written in September 2008. After the first two scenarios, it was agreed to investigate the simulation of a 'non-mimetic' scenario, which would take into consideration significant shifts or mutations in the development styles and in land planning.. In this scenario, the two models involved have been forced by exogenous assumptions on development bifurcations made by ENERDATA. Discussions within the steering committee made clear that two assumptions were critical to the plausibility of the two mitigation scenarios: (i) Timely acceptance and massive deployment of certain technologies such as carbon capture and storage and nuclear power; (ii) No-delay adoption of ambitious climate policies by all emerging and developing countries (before 2020). In order to challenge these two assumptions, two additional sensitivity scenarios were produced: the first one built on the assumption that carbon capture and storage would not be available before 2030, the second delaying the efforts of non-Annex B countries to 2025. (authors)

A glimpse into the future composition of marine phytoplankton communities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esteban eAcevedo-Trejos

2014-07-01

Full Text Available It is expected that climate change will have significant impacts on ecosystems. Most model projections agree that the ocean will experience stronger stratification and less nutrient supply from deep waters. These changes will likely affect marine phytoplankton communities and will thus impact on the higher trophic levels of the oceanic food web. The potential consequences of future climate change on marine microbial communities can be investigated and predicted only with the help of mathematical models. Here we present the application of a model that describes aggregate properties of marine phytoplankton communities and captures the effects of a changing environment on their composition and adaptive capacity. Specifically, the model describes the phytoplankton community in terms of total biomass, mean cell size, and functional diversity. The model is applied to two contrasting regions of the Atlantic Ocean (tropical and temperate and is tested under two emission scenarios: SRES A2 or ``business as usual'' and SRES B1 or ``local utopia''. We find that all three macroecological properties will decline during the next century in both regions, although this effect will be more pronounced in the temperate region. Being consistent with previous model predictions, our results show that a simple trait-based modelling framework represents a valuable tool for investigating how phytoplankton communities may reorganize under a changing climate.

Scenario sketches for Nordic H{sub 2} Energy introduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eriksson, E.A. [FOI Defence Analysis, Stockholm (Sweden)

2003-12-01

This report departs from a set of external scenarios setting the context for a Nordic H2 energy introduction, and a set of H2 related socio-technical visions, amended and assessed by an expert workshop (Stockholm, August 2003). Based on this it attempts to outline a Nordic policy strategy aiming at as internationally leading a position in H2 energy as reasonable under different external conditions. Then this putative policy commitment is set against the nine context scenarios (three alternative stage-setting developments in the 2003-15 time frame and for each of these three alternative, more specifically energy-relevant developments for 2015-30). The result is that the prospects for H2 energy introduction differ widely across future developments. However, a policy strategy that combines RTD centres of excellence and large-scale socio-technical experimentation (e.g., demos and pilots) with polices that stimulate entrepreneurs to exploit niche markets and technology foresight and the like, not least to achieve bottom-up coordination. While strong policy interventions for H2 energy are conceivable under certain sets of external conditions, more typically it will have to win out in some type of competition. Therefore it is important that energy innovation policies be reasonably unbiased with respect to different energy forms rather than trying to prematurely pick winners. (au)

The climatic scenario of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deque, M.

2007-01-01

This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

The nature of Z{sub b} states from a combined analysis of Υ(5S) → h{sub b}(mP)π{sup +}π{sup -} and Υ(5S) → B{sup (*)} anti B{sup (*)}π

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huo, Wen-Sheng [Xinjiang University, Department of Physics, Ueruemqi (China); Chen, Guo-Ying [Xinjiang University, Department of Physics, Ueruemqi (China); Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Beijing (China)

2016-03-15

With a combined analysis of data on Υ(5S) → h{sub b}(1P, 2P)π{sup +}π{sup -} and Υ(5S) → B{sup (*)} anti B{sup (*)}π in an effective field theory approach, we determine resonance parameters of Z{sub b} states in two scenarios. In one scenario we assume that Z{sub b} states are pure molecular states, while in the other one we assume that Z{sub b} states contain compact components. We find that the present data favor that there should be some compact components inside Z{sub b}{sup (')} associated with themolecular components. By fitting the invariant mass spectra of Υ(5S) → h{sub b}(1P, 2P)π{sup +}π{sup -} and Υ(5S) → B{sup (*)} anti B{sup *}π, we determine that the probability of finding the compact components in Z{sub b} states may be as large as about 40 %. (orig.)

Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koca, D.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M.T. [Centre for GeoBiosphere Science, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Soelvegatan 12, S-223 62 Lund (Sweden)

2006-10-15

This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st

Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koca, D.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M.T.

2006-01-01

This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st

Food scenarios 2025

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

Marketing Optimization for B2B Market

OpenAIRE

Kaynova Tatyana V.

2012-01-01

The article presents market definition B2B, the necessity to optimize marketing B2B market, provides a system for B2B-marketing and developed stages of its formation. On this basis it was identified key factors of customer loyalty and are the stages of development of loyalty programs for customers market B2B.

Lattice dynamical and thermodynamical properties of ReB2, RuB2, and OsB2 compounds in the ReB2 structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deligoz, E.; Colakoglu, K.; Ciftci, Y. O.

2012-01-01

Structural and lattice dynamical properties of ReB 2 , RuB 2 , and OsB 2 in the ReB 2 structure are studied in the framework of density functional theory within the generalized gradient approximation. The present results show that these compounds are dynamically stable for the considered structure. The temperature-dependent behaviors of thermodynamical properties such as internal energy, free energy, entropy, and heat capacity are also presented. The obtained results are in good agreement with the available experimental and theoretical data

Hard x-ray Morphological and Spectral Studies of the Galactic Center Molecular Cloud SGR B2: Constraining Past SGR A* Flaring Activity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Shuo; Hailey, Charles J.; Mori, Kaya

2015-01-01

In 2013, NuSTAR observed the Sgr B2 region and for the first time resolved its hard X-ray emission on subarcminute scales. Two prominent features are detected above 10 keV:. a newly emerging cloud, G0.66-0.13, and the central 90 '' radius region containing two compact cores, Sgr B2(M) and Sgr B2(N......), surrounded by diffuse emission. It is inconclusive whether the remaining level of Sgr. B2 emission is still decreasing or has reached a constant background level. A decreasing X-ray emission can be best explained by the X-ray reflection nebula scenario, where the cloud reprocesses a past giant outburst from...... Sgr A*. In the X-ray reflection nebula (XRN) scenario, the 3-79 keV Sgr. B2 spectrum allows us to self-consistently test the XRN model using both the Fe K alpha line and the continuum emission. The peak luminosity of the past Sgr A* outburst is constrained to L3-79keV∼5 x 1038 ergs s-1. A newly...

B2B myynnin johtaminen ravintola-alalla

OpenAIRE

Pajari, Katja

2014-01-01

Tämän opinnäytetyön tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten ravintola-alan yrityksissä johdetaan B2B myyntiä. Tarkoituksena oli kartoittaa, miten yrityksissä panostetaan B2B myyntiin ja sen johtamiseen sekä millä tavoin yritysmyyntiä johdetaan. Tutkimus pohjautuu opinnäytetyön tietoperustaan, jossa käsitellään B2B myyntiprosessia ja myynnin johtamista. Työssä käsitellään B2B myyntiä ja selvitetään myyntiprosessin eri vaiheita. Aihe on rajattu koskemaan nimenomaan johtamisen näkökulmaa B2B myynni...

Structural, mechanical, and electronic properties of TaB2, TaB, IrB2, and IrB: First-principle calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Wenjie; Wang Yuanxu

2009-01-01

First-principle calculations were performed to investigate the structural, elastic, and electronic properties of TaB 2 , TaB, IrB 2 , and IrB. The calculated equilibrium structural parameters, shear modulus, and Young's modulus of TaB 2 are well consistent with the available experimental data, and TaB 2 with P6/mmm space group has stronger directional bonding between ions than WB 2 , OsB 2 , IrN 2 , and PtN 2 . For TaB 2 , the hexagonal P6/mmm structure is more stable than the orthorhombic Pmmn one, while for IrB 2 the orthorhombic Pmmn structure is the most stable one. The high shear modulus of P6/mmm phase TaB 2 is mainly due to the strong covalent π-bonding of B-hexagon in the (0001) plane. Such a B-hexagon network can strongly resist against an applied [112-bar0] (0001) shear deformation. Correlation between the hardness and the elastic constants of TaB 2 was discussed. The band structure shows that P6/mmm phase TaB 2 and Pmmn phase IrB 2 are both metallic. The calculations show that both TaB and IrB are elastically stable with the hexagonal P6 3 /mmc structure. - Elastic constant c 44 of TaB 2 is calculated to be 235 GPa. This value is exceptionally high, exceeding those of WB 2 , OsB 2 , WB 4 , OsN 2 , IrN 2 , and PtN 2 .

Energy perspectives 2035 - Volume 2, scenarios I to IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, A.

2007-01-01

This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the four scenarios concerning future developments in Swiss energy supply policy. The four complex scenarios include variants entitled 'business as usual', 'increased co-operation', 'new priorities' and 'on the way to a 2000-Watt society'. These scenarios deal with the development of energy demand and electricity offerings in Switzerland for the period 1990 to 2035. They are reviewed in the light of various sensitivity factors. These sensitivity factors include a high GDP, oil prices of 50 US-dollars per barrel and a warmer climate. The report presents the results of the model calculations made. First of all, the report takes a look at the motivation and aims behind the work and discusses the modelling methods, system limits and conventions used and the possibilities offered by the perspectives as well as the limits encountered. The four scenarios are then presented and discussed in detail. Implementation variants in the private, services, industrial and traffic sectors are discussed and various electricity supply variants are presented, as are the associated environmental issues involved. The scenarios are compared with each other and pricing and security of supply issues are discussed. Finally, a short synopsis of the scenarios is presented and decision criteria are discussed as are implementation instruments. Ethical dilemmas and the risks involved are noted

Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Rutledge, D.

2008-12-01

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes projections in terms of scenarios that include estimates of oil, gas, and coal production. These scenarios are defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios or SRES (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). It is striking how different these scenarios are. For example, total oil production from 2005 to 2100 in the scenarios varies by 5:1 (Appendix SRES Version 1.1). Because production in some of the scenarios has not peaked by 2100, this ratio would be comparable to 10:1 if the years after 2100 were considered. The IPCC says "... the resultant 40 SRES scenarios together encompass the current range of uncertainties of future GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions arising from different characteristics of these models ..." (Nakicenovic et al., 2000, Summary for Policy Makers). This uncertainty is important for climate modeling, because it is larger than the likely range for the temperature sensitivity, which the IPCC gives as 2.3:1 (Gerard Meehl et al., 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 10, Global Climate Projections, p. 799). The uncertainty indicates that we could improve climate modeling if we could make a better estimate of future oil, gas, and coal production. We start by considering the two major fossil-fuel regions with substantial exhaustion, US oil and British coal. It turns out that simple normal and logistic curve fits to the cumulative production for these regions give quite stable projections for the ultimate production. By ultimate production, we mean total production, past and future. For US oil, the range for the fits for the ultimate is 1.15:1 (225- 258 billion barrels) for the period starting in 1956, when King Hubbert made his prediction of the peak year of US oil production. For UK coal, the range is 1.26:1 for the period starting in 1905, at the time of a Royal Commission on coal supplies. We extend this approach to find fits for world oil and gas production, and by a regional

Scenario analysis of fertilizer management practices for N2O mitigation from corn systems in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Abalos, Diego; Smith, Ward N; Grant, Brian B; Drury, Craig F; MacKell, Sarah; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

2016-12-15

Effective management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer application by farmers provides great potential for reducing emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). However, such potential is rarely achieved because our understanding of what practices (or combination of practices) lead to N 2 O reductions without compromising crop yields remains far from complete. Using scenario analysis with the process-based model DNDC, this study explored the effects of nine fertilizer practices on N 2 O emissions and crop yields from two corn production systems in Canada. The scenarios differed in: timing of fertilizer application, fertilizer rate, number of applications, fertilizer type, method of application and use of nitrification/urease inhibitors. Statistical analysis showed that during the initial calibration and validation stages the simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values, yet grain yield estimations warrant further model improvement. Sidedress fertilizer applications reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 60% compared to fall fertilization. Nitrification inhibitors further reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 10%; urease inhibitors had no effect on either N 2 O emissions or crop productivity. The combined adoption of split fertilizer application with inhibitors at a rate 10% lower than the conventional application rate (i.e. 150kgNha -1 ) was successful, but the benefits were lower than those achieved with single fertilization at sidedress. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of fertilizer management practices that enables policy development regarding N 2 O mitigation from agricultural soils in Canada. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study of muon trigger scenarios for the measurement of $B_{s}^{0}$ oscillations in the channels $B_{s}^{0}\\to D_{s}^{-}\\pi^{+}$ and $B_{s}^{0}\\to D_{s}^{-}a_1^{+}$

CERN Document Server

Jussel, P; Epp, B; Kneringer, E; Walkowiak, W

2006-01-01

Within the ATLAS $B$-physics programme it is foreseen to study $B_s^0$ oscillations and measure the mixing parameter \\dms. The measurement of this parameter is an important input for the determination of other $B_s^0$ parameters from e.g. the decay $B_s^0 \\to J/\\Psi \\phi$, in particular the lifetime difference $\\Delta \\Gamma_s$ and the weak phase $\\phi_s$. The hadronic $B_s^0$ decay modes to $D_s^- \\pi^+$ and $D_{s}^{-} a_{1}^{+}$ with \\hbox{$D_{s}^{-}\\to \\phi(\\to K^{+}K^{-})\\pi^{-}$} and $a_1^+ \\to \\rho^0 (\\to \\pi^+ \\pi^-) \\pi^+$ are used in this analysis to evaluate the number of signal events expected for an integrated luminosity of \\mbox{30~\\ifb} and to determine the \\dms \\ sensitivity using the amplitude fit method. Four classes of trigger scenarios are considered, each with different trigger conditions: a single-muon trigger, a di-muon trigger, a muon-electron trigger and a combined muon-lepton trigger. This analysis, performed on Monte Carlo particle-level, shows that besides the single-muon trigger th...

TRUST IN B2B E-MARKETPLACES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SEBASTIAN KOT

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents background of B2B exchanges and review of their forms and functionalities. The benefits and fails reasons are noticed. European enterprises interest in B2B trade is next aspect of consideration. Finally, the trust barriers of B2B exchanges are presented.

Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. Aavudai Anandhi. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 119 Issue 4 August 2010 pp 447-460. Assessing impact of climate change on season length in Karnataka for IPCC SRES scenarios · Aavudai Anandhi · More Details Abstract Fulltext PDF.

Utilização de cenários de mudança para a previsão da evolução das pressões e do estado das massas de água subterrâneas e EDAS - Caso de estudo:Melides. Cenários de alterações climáticas

OpenAIRE

Novo, M. E.; Oliveira, L. G. S.

2014-01-01

Neste artigo faz-se uma projecção da avaliação da evolução das pressões sobre as águas superficiais e subterrâneas da bacia de Melides sob cenários de alterações climáticas para o horizonte temporal de 2100 e cenários de emissões IS92a, SRES A2 e SRES B2. Os valores de recarga e escoamento superficial para estes cenários e consequente variação do volume médio da lagoa de Melides foram depois cruzados com a evolução das pressões qualitativas e quantitativas. A evolução das press...

Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Ke; Wang Can; Lu Xuedu; Chen Jining

2007-01-01

The international climate community has begun to assess a range of possible options for strengthening the international climate change effort after 2012. Analysis of the potential for sector-based emissions reduction and relevant mitigation options will provide the necessary background information for the debate. In order to assess the CO 2 abatement potential of China's steel industry, a model was developed using LEAP software to generate 3 different CO 2 emission scenarios for the industry from 2000 to 2030. The abatement potentials of different scenarios were compared, and their respective feasibilities were assessed according to the cost information. High priority abatement measures were then identified. The results show that the average CO 2 abatement per year in the Recent Policy scenario and in the New Policy scenario, compared with the reference scenario, are 51 and 107 million tons, respectively. The corresponding total incremental costs are 9.34 and 80.95 billion dollars. It is concluded that there is great potential for CO 2 abatement in China's steel industry. Adjusting the structure of the industry and technological advancement will play an important role in emissions reduction. Successful implementation of current sustainable development policies and measures will result in CO 2 abatement at a low cost. However, to achieve higher levels of abatement, the cost will increase dramatically. In the near future, specific energy conservation technologies such as dry coke quenching, exhaust gas and heat recovery equipment will be of great significance. However, taking a long term perspective, emissions reduction will rely more on the adjustment of production processes and the application of more modern large scale plants. Advanced blast furnace technology will inevitably play an important role

Identification of SH2B2β as an Inhibitor for SH2B1- and SH2B2α-Promoted Janus Kinase-2 Activation and Insulin Signaling

OpenAIRE

Li, Minghua; Li, Zhiqin; Morris, David L.; Rui, Liangyou

2007-01-01

The SH2B family has three members (SH2B1, SH2B2, and SH2B3) that contain conserved dimerization (DD), pleckstrin homology, and SH2 domains. The DD domain mediates the formation of homo- and heterodimers between members of the SH2B family. The SH2 domain of SH2B1 (previously named SH2-B) or SH2B2 (previously named APS) binds to phosphorylated tyrosines in a variety of tyrosine kinases, including Janus kinase-2 (JAK2) and the insulin receptor, thereby promoting the activation of JAK2 or the ins...

Overview of the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Penev, Michael

2015-05-12

This presentation provides an introduction to the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) and includes an overview of each of the three versions of H2FAST: the Web tool, the Excel spreadsheet version, and the beta version of the H2FAST Business Case Scenario tool.

Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, Sao Francisco and the Parana River basins

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marengo, Jose A.; Chou, Sin Chan; Alves, Lincoln M.; Pesquero, Jose F.; Soares, Wagner R.; Santos, Daniel C.; Lyra, Andre A.; Sueiro, Gustavo; Chagas, Diego J.; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila [National Institute for Space Research (INPE) Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Kay, Gillian; Betts, Richard [UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom)

2012-05-15

The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961-1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4-6 C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation-Evaporation (P-E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and Sao Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future

Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

1994-01-01

This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric

B2B oriented on-line applications generator

OpenAIRE

Vintilă Bogdan-Cătălin

2008-01-01

B2B applications are presented. Quality characteristics of B2B applications are defined. B2B application structure is defined. The application for contracts is developed. The advantages are identified.

Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goelzer, H; Huybrechts, P; Raper, S C B; Loutre, M-F; Goosse, H; Fichefet, T

2012-01-01

Sea-level is expected to rise for a long time to come, even after stabilization of human-induced climatic warming. Here we use simulations with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to project sea-level changes over the third millennium forced with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that stabilize by either 2000 or 2100 AD. The model includes 3D thermomechanical models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets coupled to an atmosphere and an ocean model, a global glacier melt algorithm to account for the response of mountain glaciers and ice caps, and a procedure for assessing oceanic thermal expansion from oceanic heat uptake. Four climate change scenarios are considered to determine sea-level commitments. These assume a 21st century increase in greenhouse gases according to SRES scenarios B1, A1B and A2 with a stabilization of the atmospheric composition after the year 2100. One additional scenario assumes 1000 years of constant atmospheric composition from the year 2000 onwards. For our preferred model version, we find an already committed total sea-level rise of 1.1 m by 3000 AD. In experiments with greenhouse gas concentration stabilization at 2100 AD, the total sea-level rise ranges between 2.1 m (B1), 4.1 m (A1B) and 6.8 m (A2). In all scenarios, more than half of this amount arises from the Greenland ice sheet, thermal expansion is the second largest contributor, and the contribution of glaciers and ice caps is small as it is limited by the available ice volume of maximally 25 cm of sea-level equivalent. Additionally, we analysed the sensitivity of the sea-level contributions from an ensemble of nine different model versions that cover a large range of climate sensitivity realized by model parameter variations of the atmosphere–ocean model. Selected temperature indices are found to be good predictors for sea-level contributions from the different components of land ice and oceanic thermal expansion after 1000 years. (letter)

Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contaldi, Mario

2005-01-01

This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

Scenarios for regional passenger car fleets and their CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, Ina; Kaniovski, Serguei; Scheffran, Jürgen

2012-01-01

Passenger car traffic is among the main contributors to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which are responsible for climate change. It is also an important indicator used to forecast these emissions in integrated climate-economic models. This paper develops scenarios for global passenger car stock until 2050. The study adopts a global regionalized approach, encompassing 11 world regions. Car stock projections are obtained using a multi-model approach, which includes a consumer demand model based on utility maximization, a non-linear Gompertz model and a panel estimate of the income elasticity of demand for cars. The main hypothesis underlying these projections is that preferences for purchasing cars are similar across cultures and nations and that the demand for cars is largely determined by disposable income. We apply scenarios for the average traffic volume and fuel efficiency developed in previous work together with the average carbon content of fuels to obtain the CO 2 emissions. - Research highlights: ► This study develops scenarios for global passenger car stock, CO 2 emissions and fuel efficiency until 2050. ► In a global regionalized approach car stock projections are obtained using a multi-model approach. ► Compared are utility maximization, a non-linear Gompertz model and a panel estimate. ► Preferences for purchasing cars are similar across cultures and nations. ► The demand for cars is largely determined by disposable income.

OSCAAR calculations for the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Homma, Toshimitsu; Tomita, Kenichi

2000-10-01

This report presents the results obtained from the application of the accident consequence assessment code, called OSCAAR, developed in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute to the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2 organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The scenario relates to an inadvertent release of 131 I to atmosphere from the Hanford Purex Chemical Separations Plant on 2-5 September 1963. This exercise was used to test the atmospheric dispersion and deposition models and food chain transport models for 131 I in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainty with respect both to the part of the assessment and to the overall assessment. The OSCAAR food chain model performed relatively well, while the atmospheric dispersion and deposition calculations made using wind data at the release height and wind fields by simple interpolation of the surrounding surface wind data indicated limited capabilities. The Monte Carlo based uncertainty and sensitivity method linked with OSCAAR successfully demonstrated its usefulness in the scenario. The method presented here also allowed the determination of the parameters that have the most important impact in accident consequence assessments. (author)

OSCAAR calculations for the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Homma, Toshimitsu; Tomita, Kenichi [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Inoue, Yoshihisa [Visible Information Center Inc., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

2000-10-01

This report presents the results obtained from the application of the accident consequence assessment code, called OSCAAR, developed in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute to the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2 organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The scenario relates to an inadvertent release of {sup 131}I to atmosphere from the Hanford Purex Chemical Separations Plant on 2-5 September 1963. This exercise was used to test the atmospheric dispersion and deposition models and food chain transport models for {sup 131}I in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainty with respect both to the part of the assessment and to the overall assessment. The OSCAAR food chain model performed relatively well, while the atmospheric dispersion and deposition calculations made using wind data at the release height and wind fields by simple interpolation of the surrounding surface wind data indicated limited capabilities. The Monte Carlo based uncertainty and sensitivity method linked with OSCAAR successfully demonstrated its usefulness in the scenario. The method presented here also allowed the determination of the parameters that have the most important impact in accident consequence assessments. (author)

Small Fermi energy, strong electron-phonon effects and anharmonicity in MgB2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cappelluti, E.; Pietronero, L.

2007-01-01

The investigation of the electron-phonon properties in MgB 2 has attracted a huge interest after the discovery of superconductivity with T c 39 K in this compound. Although superconductivity is often described in terms of the conventional Eliashberg theory, properly generalized in the multiband/multigap scenario, important features distinguish MgB 2 from other conventional strong-coupling superconductors. Most important it is the fact that a large part of the total electron-phonon strength seems to be concentrated here in only one phonon mode, the boron-boron E 2g stretching mode. Another interesting property is the small Fermi energy of the σ bands, which are strongly coupled with the E 2g mode. In this contribution, we discuss how the coexistence of both these features give rise to an unconventional phenomenology of the electron-phonon properties

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Emissions from international shipping. Pt. 2: Impact of future technologies - scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eyring, V.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

2004-01-01

We use the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future scenarios we first discuss upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements. We present geographically resolved emission inventory forecast scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions of future ship traffic demand and technological improvements. The future ship traffic demand scenario is mainly determined by the economic growth and the growth in world seaborne trade and distinguishes between different ship types. The annual growth rates of sea trade volumes and expected vessel traffic density is assumed to be smaller for today's most frequently sailed routes (in particular east-west-trades) than for those that are currently less frequently sailed (in particular south-north-trades). This leads to an adjustment of the number of ships sailing the different shipping routes in 2020 and even stronger in 2050. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in an estimated fuel consumption of 422 million metric tons (Mt) and 1226 Tg CO 2 emissions. For 2050 one scenario for fuel consumption assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by using future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption of 422 Mt and 1339 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate of 646 Mt and 1783 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced we present four different technology scenarios. (orig.)

Scenarios in decision-making. An application to CO2 emission reduction strategies in passenger transport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rienstra, S.A.; Vleugel, J.M; Nijkamp, P. [Department of Social Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)] Smokers, R.T.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

1995-12-01

The usefulness of scenarios for decision-makers is analyzed. First, a theoretical introduction to the scenario methodology is presented. Next, four energy scenarios for West-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a baseline case is described and analysed. For each scenario it is outlined how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various existing and future transport technologies and the corresponding modal split. Expected energy consumption features of the various transport modes are described, data on the present fuel supply and electricity generation system are presented, as well as estimations of the future energy system. The energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with the future passenger transport systems are assessed and these impacts are compared with the current system. The conclusion is that these scenarios provide interesting policy options for decision-makers. A large-scale reduction of CO2 emissions is possible in several ways, but each way will cause many problems, since drastic policy measures will have to be introduced, which may affect economic growth and the lifestyles of individuals. 5 figs., 11 tabs., 24 refs.

Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

2014-08-01

China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

2012-03-15

Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

The future bioclimatic conditions in Austria under the aspect of climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Rudel, E.; Matzarakis, A.; Neumke, R.; Endler, Ch,; Koch, E.

2009-09-01

The IPCC quantifies Heat Stress as a combination of air temperature and air humidity. In order to describe the future bioclimatic conditions in a human-biometeorological manner the analysis a modern thermal index has been chosen. The PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) allows the assessment of the effect of the thermal environment based on the energy balance of humans including thermo-physiological information. The data for the calculation of the PET came from climate models. The required data are for the climatic parameters air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and mean cloud cover as the necessary inputs for Physiologically Equivalents Temperature. Regarding future climatic changes PET calculations for the time slices 1961 and 1990 and also 2070 and 2100 have been run in 0.5 ° resolution. By the use of statistical regression for the 0.5 ° resolution the results have been downscaled to 1 km resolution in order to identify and quantify the areas in Austria, which will be more affected bioclimatologically. The constructed maps present current and future climatic conditions and also differences for the different time slices and SRES-scenarios of the IPCC. Maps of the difference between the Physiological Equivalent temperature and air temperature have been constructed to show that the used thermal indices, which have been applied by the IPCC underestimate the expected thermal bioclimate conditions for future climate. The results offer fundamental information for tourism and recreation authorities for present and expected climatic and bioclimatic conditions.

Digitaalisen markkinoinnin suunnitelma b2b-yritykselle

OpenAIRE

Harhakoski, Oskari

2011-01-01

Työ käsittelee digitaalisen markkinoinnin suunnitelman tekemistä b2b-yritykselle. Tavoitteena oli kilpailuedun hankkiminen sosiaalisen median tehokkaalla hyödyntämisellä mark-kinoinnissa. Konkreettisemmin yritys halusi lisää näkyvyyttä ja myyntiä. Suunnitelman laatimisessa hyödynnettiin POST-menetelmää. Erityistä huomiota kiinnitettiin b2b-markkinoinnin eroihin b2c-markkinointiin verrattuna. Myös yrityksen toimiminen Suomen markkinoilla huomioitiin. Lisäksi analysoitiin kilpailijoita asia...

RF Scenarios for Pb54+ Ions in the PS2

CERN Document Server

Benedikt, M; Hancock, S; CERN. Geneva. AB Department

2008-01-01

This note analyses some of the rf scenarios that are presently being considered for lead ions in the PS2. An earlier note principally concerning protons [1] highlighted the problem of the large revolution frequency swing of ions in the PS2 and the issue of bunching factor with direct injection from the LEIR machine. We present solutions based on additional rf systems in LEIR and consider the 40 MHz principal rf system proposed for the PS2 in the earlier work to have switchable tuning ranges to cover the large frequency swing required.

Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. L. Edwards

2014-01-01

Régional: Fettweis, 2007 climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB–elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9% at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0% at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs for sea level contributions are larger than the "no feedback" case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

Revisiting the Observability of the WH and ZH, H → b(dash b) Channel in 14 TeV pp and 2 TeV pp Collisions (lb(dash b) and llb(dash b) Final States)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richter-Was, E.; )

2000-01-01

A detailed study of the associated Standard Model Higgs boson production in 14 TeV pp (LHC) and 2 TeV p(anti p) (Tevatron) collisions, WH with W → lν and ZH with Z → ll, with Higgs boson decays to b(dash b) pair, is presented for Higgs masses of 100 and 120 GeV. Presently, WH with H → b(dash b) production is considered to be less promising than the t(dash t)H associated production for the Higgs searches at LHC. However, studies of Higgs searches at Tevatron indicate that this channel in combination with the WH/ZH channels leading to the E miss T + b(dash b) signature, offers good discovery potential in the mass range 90-140 GeV. The aim of this paper is to provide several details which lead to a quantitative comparison in a consistent framework of the physics potential for these channels in both colliding scenarios. The emphasis is put on the differences in the expected signal and background rates and compositions of the backgrounds. (author)

Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island: water resources sustainability.

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Xiong; Wu, Yanqing; Wu, Jun; Lu, Jian; Wilson, P Chris

2012-11-15

With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each industry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efficiency, this study performed a scenario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be 2.22 × 10(8)m(3) from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand growth volume will be 2.74 × 10(8)m(3) and 2.64 × 10(8)m(3), respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water use benefit under both high and low development modes. The water use benefit will be about 50 CNY/m(3) under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Scenario II is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of Chongming Island in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Posch

2008-03-01

Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

Evidence of multiband superconductivity in the quaternary borocarbide superconductor YNi2B2C using directional point-contact spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raychaudhuri, Pratap; Sheet, Goutam; Mukhopadhyay, Sourin; Takeya, H.

2007-01-01

In this paper, we review our recent investigations on the gap anisotropy of the quaternary borocarbide superconductor YNi 2 B 2 C using directional point-contact spectroscopy. Through a detailed study of the temperature and magnetic field dependence of the superconducting energy gaps we show that the gap anisotropy in this material originates from electrons on different Fermi sheets having very different Fermi velocities. The gap anisotropy in this material is therefore well explained through a multiband scenario where electrons in different k-directions have very different electron-phonon coupling strength

Modelling climate change under no-policy and policy emissions pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wigley, T.M.L.

2003-01-01

Future emissions under the SRES scenarios are described as examples of no-climate-policy scenarios. The production of policy scenarios is guided by Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which requires stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations. It is suggested that the choice of stabilization targets should be governed by the need to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, while the choice of the pathway towards a given target should be determined by some form of cost-benefit analysis. The WRE (Wigley, Richels and Edmonds) concentration profiles are given as examples of stabilization pathways, and an alternative 'overshoot' pathway is introduced. Probabilistic projections (as probability density functions - pdfs) for global-mean temperature under the SRES scenarios are given. The relative importance of different sources of uncertainty is determined by removing individual sources of uncertainty and examining the change in the output temperature pdf. Emissions and climate sensitivity uncertainties dominate, while carbon cycle, aerosol forcing and ocean mixing uncertainties are shown to be small. It is shown that large uncertainties remain even if the emissions are prescribed. Uncertainties in regional climate change are defined by comparing normalized changes (i.e., changes per 1C global-mean warming) across multiple models and using the inter-model standard deviation as an uncertainty metric. Global-mean temperature projections for the policy case are given using the WRE profiles. Different stabilization targets are considered, and the overshoot case for 550ppm stabilization is used to quantify the effects of pathway differences. It is shown that large emissions reductions (from the no-policy to the policy case) will lead to only relatively small reductions in warming over the next 100 years

Marketing communications in industrial B2b markets enhancing the value of the corporate brand relying on common added values

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose Ignacio Monrabal

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Today, industrial Business-to-Business (B2B markets are mainly characterized by a highly trained customer for making rational decisions in a highly competitive and global market, requiring more than ever organizations to approach their markets with a single and consistent message. Such demanding scenario requires to define a corporate brand transmitting in one message all the advantages that a Customer may appreciate in the long-term, based not only on what the company stands for in the market, but also the benefits of all its products throughout its portfolio. Such elements are referred as Common Added Values (CAVs, being some general examples the technology, quality, innovation and reliability; the capacity, infrastructure and distribution network; after-sales service policies, support and training; or the price and financial policies. This paper tries to explain the source of this need, describing the main differences between a brand communications model focused on the product or including the main B2B corporate values; and highlighting the main CAVs, to get an industry player either small or large, can succeed in generating brand equity through an integrated marketing communications strategy.

Public acceptance of management methods under different human-wildlife conflict scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Liordos, Vasilios; Kontsiotis, Vasileios J; Georgari, Marina; Baltzi, Kerasia; Baltzi, Ioanna

2017-02-01

Wildlife management seeks to minimise public controversy for successful application of wildlife control methods. Human dimensions research in wildlife seeks a better understanding of public preferences for effective human-wildlife conflict resolution. In face to face interviews, 630 adults in Greece were asked to rate on a 5-point Likert-like scale their acceptance of 3 management methods, i.e., do nothing, non-lethal control, and lethal control, in the context of 5 human-wildlife conflict scenarios: 1) corvids damage crops; 2) starlings damage crops; 3) starlings foul urban structures; 4) coypus damage crops; and 5) coypus transfer disease. Univariate GLMs determined occupation, hunting membership and their interaction as the stronger predictors of public acceptance, generating 4 stakeholder groups: the general public, farmers, hunters, and farmers-hunters. Differences in acceptance and consensus among stakeholder groups were assessed using the Potential for Conflict Index 2 (PCI 2 ). All 4 stakeholder groups agreed that doing nothing was unacceptable and non-lethal control acceptable in all 5 scenarios, with generally high consensus within and between groups. The lethal control method was more controversial and became increasingly more acceptable as the severity of scenarios was increased and between non-native and native species. Lethal control was unacceptable for the general public in all scenarios. Farmers accepted lethal methods in the corvids and starlings scenarios, were neutral in the coypus damage crops scenario, whereas they accepted lethal control when coypus transfer disease. Hunters' opinion was neutral in the corvids, starlings and coypus damage crops and starlings foul urban structures scenarios, but they accepted lethal methods in the coypus transfer disease scenario. Farmers-hunters considered lethal control acceptable in all 5 scenarios. Implications from this study could be used for designing a socio-ecological approach which incorporates

Bu-2470, a new peptide antibiotic complex. II. Structure determination of Bu-2470 A, B1, B2a and B2b.

Science.gov (United States)

Sugawara, K; Yonemoto, T; Konishi, M; Matsumoto, K; Miyaki, T; Kawaguchi, H

1983-06-01

The structures of Bu-2470 A, B1, B2a, and B2b have been determined. Bu-2470 A is a simple octapeptide having no fatty acid moiety, while Bu-2470 B1, B2a and B2b are octapeptides that have been acylated with a beta-hydroxy C11 or C10 fatty acid. The octapeptide structure of Bu-2470 components was found identical with that of octapeptin C1, hence generic names of octapeptin C0, C2, C3 and C4 are proposed for Bu-2470 A, B1, B2a and B2b, respectively.

Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jon P. Sadler

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

Hospital visits among women with skeletal-related events secondary to breast cancer and bone metastases: a nationwide population-based cohort study in Denmark

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svendsen ML

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Marie Louise Svendsen,1 Henrik Gammelager,1 Claus Sværke,1 Mellissa Yong,2 Victoria M Chia,2 Christian F Christiansen,1 Jon P Fryzek1 1Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 2Center for Observational Research, Amgen, Thousand Oaks, CA, USA Objective: Skeletal-related events (SREs among women with breast cancer may be associated with considerable use of health-care resources. We characterized inpatient and outpatient hospital visits in a national population-based cohort of Danish women with SREs secondary to breast cancer and bone metastases. Methods: We identified first-time breast cancer patients with bone metastases from 2003 through 2009 who had a subsequent SRE (defined as pathologic fracture, spinal cord compression, radiation therapy, or surgery to bone. Hospital visits included the number of inpatient hospitalizations, length of stay, number of hospital outpatient clinic visits, and emergency room visits. The number of hospital visits was assessed for a pre-SRE period (90 days prior to the diagnostic period, a diagnostic period (14 days prior to the SRE, and a post-SRE period (90 days after the SRE. Patients who experienced more than one SRE during the 90-day post-SRE period were defined as having multiple SREs and were followed until 90 days after the last SRE. Results: We identified 569 women with SREs secondary to breast cancer with bone metastases. The majority of women had multiple SREs (73.1%. A total of 20.9% and 33.4% of women with single and multiple SREs died in the post-SRE period, respectively. SREs were associated with a large number of hospital visits in the diagnostic period, irrespective of the number and type of SREs. Women with multiple SREs generally had a higher number of visits compared to those with a single SRE in the post-SRE period, eg, median length of hospitalization was 5 days (interquartile range 0–15 for women with a single SRE and 13 days (interquartile range 4�

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

Renewable energy: past trends and future growth in 2 degrees scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Crijns-Graus, Wina

2016-01-01

This study explores past growth rates of renewable energy sources (1971-2012) and required future ones in 2 degrees scenarios. Results show that in spite of comparatively high growth of renewable energy in the period 2000-2012, the share of renewable energy in total energy use stayed the same (13%).

Study of hazardous scenario in service stations. Final report; Etude de scenarios dangereux en stations-service. Rapport final

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-10-01

The industrial environment group is working at the elaboration of prescriptions applicable to classed installations submitted to declaration (heading 1434: fill in and distribution of inflammable liquids). In this context the group asked the INERIS to realize a list of possible accidents scenario, to quantify the consequences in terms of safety distances, to identify the most pertinent scenario and to examine the particular cases which allow to reduce the safety distances especially the implementing of a fire break wall of two hours. (A.L.B.)

E-Business Models in B2B: Process Based Categorization and Analysis of B2B Models

OpenAIRE

Mahesh S. Raisinghani; Turan Melemez; Lijie Zou; Chris Paslowski; Irma Kimvidze; Susanne Taha; Klaus Simons

2005-01-01

The business models in business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce and their effectiveness have been a major topic of research in recent years. Due to the variety of existing models, it seems difficult to find a widely accepted categorization that can be analyzed and assessed. An in-depth study that provides a process-based approach to B2B e-commerce is presented and illustrated with examples from industry. A comparative examination of both the buy and the sell side based on a process-related appro...

Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

1978-03-01

This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

Sterols regulate 3β-hydroxysterol Δ24-reductase (DHCR24) via dual sterol regulatory elements: cooperative induction of key enzymes in lipid synthesis by Sterol Regulatory Element Binding Proteins.

Science.gov (United States)

Zerenturk, Eser J; Sharpe, Laura J; Brown, Andrew J

2012-10-01

3β-Hydroxysterol Δ24-reductase (DHCR24) catalyzes a final step in cholesterol synthesis, and has been ascribed diverse functions, such as being anti-apoptotic and anti-inflammatory. How this enzyme is regulated transcriptionally by sterols is currently unclear. Some studies have suggested that its expression is regulated by Sterol Regulatory Element Binding Proteins (SREBPs) while another suggests it is through the Liver X Receptor (LXR). However, these transcription factors have opposing effects on cellular sterol levels, so it is likely that one predominates. Here we establish that sterol regulation of DHCR24 occurs predominantly through SREBP-2, and identify the particular region of the DHCR24 promoter to which SREBP-2 binds. We demonstrate that sterol regulation is mediated by two sterol regulatory elements (SREs) in the promoter of the gene, assisted by two nearby NF-Y binding sites. Moreover, we present evidence that the dual SREs work cooperatively to regulate DHCR24 expression by comparison to two known SREBP target genes, the LDL receptor with one SRE, and farnesyl-diphosphate farnesyltransferase 1, with two SREs. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The change of the potential occurence of Colorado Potato Beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824 in the Czech Republic till 2050

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eva Kocmánková

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This present study is focused on the modeling of the most important potato pest i.e Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824 development in relation to the climate conditions over the area of the Czech Republic. The aim was to develop a model allowing the assessment of the CPB possible spread under the climate change. For the estimation of the CPB occurrence in expected climate conditions we used a dynamic model CLIMEX that enables to determine the suitability of a given location climate for the pests survival and infestation capability based on known pests requirements to the climate conditions. Following the validation and calibration of the model outputs, the meteorological data were altered according to three Global Circulation Models (ECHAM4, HadCM3, NCARPCM that were driven by two SRES emission scenarios (A2, B1 with two assumed levels of climate system sensitivity for period 2025 and 2050. Model output, for current and expected climate conditions, were visualized by GIS using a digital landscape model. Under all climate change scenarios we noted a widening of CPB distribution area and change in the infestation pressure of the pest.

Floating Offshore Wind in Oregon: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jimenez, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Speer, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-05-01

Construction of the first offshore wind power plant in the United States began in 2015, off the coast of Rhode Island, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for Oregon: 5,500 megawatts (MW) of offshore wind deployment in Oregon by 2050 (Scenario A), and 2,900 MW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). These levels of deployment could power approximately 1,600,000 homes (Scenario A) or 870,000 homes (Scenario B). Offshore wind would contribute to economic development in Oregon in the near future, and more substantially in the long term, especially if equipment and labor are sourced from within the state. According to the analysis, over the 2020-2050 period, Oregon floating offshore wind facilities could support 65,000-97,000 job-years and add $6.8 billion-$9.9 billion to the state GDP (Scenario A).

Bismuth-boron multiple bonding in BiB_2O"- and Bi_2B"-

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jian, Tian; Cheung, Ling Fung; Chen, Teng-Teng; Wang, Lai-Sheng

2017-01-01

Despite its electron deficiency, boron is versatile in forming multiple bonds. Transition-metal-boron double bonding is known, but boron-metal triple bonds have been elusive. Two bismuth boron cluster anions, BiB_2O"- and Bi_2B"-, containing triple and double B-Bi bonds are presented. The BiB_2O"- and Bi_2B"- clusters are produced by laser vaporization of a mixed B/Bi target and characterized by photoelectron spectroscopy and ab initio calculations. Well-resolved photoelectron spectra are obtained and interpreted with the help of ab initio calculations, which show that both species are linear. Chemical bonding analyses reveal that Bi forms triple and double bonds with boron in BiB_2O"- ([Bi≡B-B≡O]"-) and Bi_2B"- ([Bi=B=Bi]"-), respectively. The Bi-B double and triple bond strengths are calculated to be 3.21 and 4.70 eV, respectively. This is the first experimental observation of Bi-B double and triple bonds, opening the door to design main-group metal-boron complexes with multiple bonding. (copyright 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

On the origin of the system PSR B1757-24/SNR G5.4-1.2

OpenAIRE

Gvaramadze, V. V.

2003-01-01

A scenario for the origin of the system PSR B1757-24/supernova remnant (SNR) G5.4-1.2 is proposed. It is suggested that both objects are the remnants of a supernova (SN) that exploded within a pre-existing bubble blown-up by a runaway massive star (the SN progenitor) during the final (Wolf-Rayet) phase of its evolution. This suggestion implies that (a) the SN blast centre was significantly offset from the geometric centre of the wind-blown bubble (i.e. from the centre of the future SNR), (b) ...

Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Lionello

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Future climate projections show higher/lower winter (Dec-Jan-Feb precipitation in the northern/southern Mediterranean region than in present climate conditions. This paper analyzes the results of regional model simulations of the A2 and B2 scenarios, which confirm this opposite precipitation change and link it to the change of cyclone activity. The increase of the winter cyclone activity in future climate scenarios over western Europe is responsible for the larger precipitation at the northern coast of the basin, though the bulk of the change is located outside the Mediterranean region. The reduction of cyclone activity inside the Mediterranean region in future scenarios is responsible for the lower precipitation at the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast.

Potential impacts of climate change on the ecology of dengue and its mosquito vector the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erickson, R A; Presley, S M; Cox, S B; Hayhoe, K; Allen, L J S; Long, K R

2012-01-01

Shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases. We examine the potential impacts of climate change on the transmission and maintenance dynamics of dengue, a resurging mosquito-vectored infectious disease. In particular, we project changes in dengue season length for three cities: Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL and Lubbock, TX. These cities are located on the edges of the range of the Asian tiger mosquito within the United States of America and were chosen as test cases. We use a disease model that explicitly incorporates mosquito population dynamics and high-resolution climate projections. Based on projected changes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios as simulated by four global climate models, we found that the projected warming shortened mosquito lifespan, which in turn decreased the potential dengue season. These results illustrate the difficulty in predicting how climate change may alter complex systems. (letter)

Potential impacts of climate change on the ecology of dengue and its mosquito vector the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, R. A.; Hayhoe, K.; Presley, S. M.; Allen, L. J. S.; Long, K. R.; Cox, S. B.

2012-09-01

Shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases. We examine the potential impacts of climate change on the transmission and maintenance dynamics of dengue, a resurging mosquito-vectored infectious disease. In particular, we project changes in dengue season length for three cities: Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL and Lubbock, TX. These cities are located on the edges of the range of the Asian tiger mosquito within the United States of America and were chosen as test cases. We use a disease model that explicitly incorporates mosquito population dynamics and high-resolution climate projections. Based on projected changes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios as simulated by four global climate models, we found that the projected warming shortened mosquito lifespan, which in turn decreased the potential dengue season. These results illustrate the difficulty in predicting how climate change may alter complex systems.

TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

2014-01-01

TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Kaj M.; Christensen, Jesper H.; Brandt, Jørgen

2015-01-01

Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition. PMID:26378551

Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fred Fokko Hattermann

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Aim of our study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the large river basins in Germany (Rhine, Elbe, Danube, Weser and Ems and thereby giving the range of impact uncertainty created by the most recent regional climate projections. The study shows mainly results for the A1B SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario scenario by comparing the reference period 1981–2010 and the scenario periods 2031–2060 and 2061–2090 and using climate projections of a combination of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs and 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs as climate driver. The outcome is compared against impacts driven by a more recent RCP (Representative Emission Pathways scenario by using data of a statistical RCM. The results indicate that more robust conclusions can be drawn for some river basins, especially the Rhine and Danube basins, while diversity of results leads to higher uncertainty in the other river basins. The results also show that hydrology is very sensitive to changes in climate and effects of a general increase in precipitation can even be over-compensated by an increase in evapotranspiration. The decrease of runoff in late summer shown in most results can be an indicator for more pronounced droughts under scenario conditions.

Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

Science.gov (United States)

Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

2013-04-01

For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

B2-B2.5 code benchmarking

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dekeyser, W.; Baelmans, M; Voskoboynikov, S.; Rozhansky, V.; Reiter, D.; Wiesen, S.; Kotov, V.; Boerner, P.

2011-01-15

ITER-IO currently (and since about 15 years) employs the SOLPS4.xxx code for its divertor design, currently version SOLPS4.3. SOLPS.xxx is a special variant of the B2-EIRENE code, which was originally developed by an European consortium (FZ Juelich, AEA Culham, ERM Belgium/KU Leuven) in the late eighties and early nineties of the last century under NET contracts. Until today even the very similar edge plasma codes within the SOLPS family, if run on a seemingly identical choice of physical parameters, still sometimes disagree significantly with each other. It is obvious that in computational engineering applications, as they are carried out for the various ITER divertor aspects with SOLPS4.3 for more than a decade now, any transition from one to another code must be fully backward compatible, or, at least, the origin of differences in the results must be identified and fully understood quantitatively. In this report we document efforts undertaken in 2010 to ultimately eliminate the third issue. For the kinetic EIRENE part within SOLPS this backward compatibility (back until 1996) was basically achieved (V. Kotov, 2004-2006) and SOLPS4.3 is now essentially up to date with the current EIRENE master maintained at FZ Juelich. In order to achieve a similar level of reproducibility for the plasma fluid (B2, B2.5) part, we follow a similar strategy, which is quite distinct from the previous SOLPS benchmark attempts: the codes are ''disintegrated'' and pieces of it are run on smallest (i.e. simplest) problems. Only after full quantitative understanding is achieved, the code model is enlarged, integrated, piece by piece again, until, hopefully, a fully backward compatible B2 / B2.5 ITER edge plasma simulation will be achieved. The status of this code dis-integration effort and its findings until now (Nov. 2010) are documented in the present technical note. This work was initiated in a small workshop by the three partner teams of KU Leuven, St. Petersburg

Directional crystallization of B4C-NbB2 and B4C-MoB2 eutectic compositions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paderno, Varvara; Paderno, Y.B.; Filippov, Vladimir; Liashchenko, Alfred

2004-01-01

We studied the directional crystallization of different compositions in B 4 C-NbB 2 and B 4 C-MoB 2 systems. The eutectic compositions for both systems are evaluated. It is shown that in the first system the rod-like eutectic structure is formed, in second, the 'Chinese hieroglyphics'. In both cases high hardness and high microplasticity are observed, which are much more than for individual component phases. These compositions may be considered as a new kind of self-strengthening composite materials

Il B2B e il paradigma dei costi di transazione (B2B and the Transaction Costs Paradigm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pierluigi Sabbatini

2001-06-01

Full Text Available Business to Business (B2B Internet commerce causes a significant contraction of transaction costs. According to the Coase paradigm, we would thus expect a deverticalization of the industry and broader scope for anonymous market mechanisms. In reality, such expectations are not fully borne out by the facts. When the industrial structure is concentrated the B2Bgenerally loses its independence, and is owned by the firms which most contribute to its development, e.g. the ones able to bring the liquidity to it. The B2B governance mechanism established by these firms gives hierarchical mechanisms a role which they do not usually play in extensive, anonymous markets.

Six Years of Monitoring of the Sgr B2 Molecular Cloud with INTEGRAL

Science.gov (United States)

Terrier, R.; Bélanger, G.; Ponti, G.; Trap, G.; Goldwurm, A.; Decourchelle, A.

2009-05-01

Several molecular clouds around the Galactic Centre (GC) emit strong neutral iron fluorescence line at 6.4 keV, as well as hard X-ray emission up to 100 keV. The origin of this emission has long been a matter of controversy: irradiation by low energy cosmic ray electrons or X-rays emitted by a nearby flaring source in the central region. A recent evidence for time variability in the iron line intensity that has been detected in the Sgr B2 cloud favors the reflexion scenario. We present here the data obtained after 6 years of INTEGRAL monitoring of the GC. In particular, we show a lightcurve of Sgr B2 that reveals a decrease in the hard X-ray flux over the last years and discuss its implications. We finally discuss perspectives with Simbol-X.

ECRH and ECCD scenarios for W7-X

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laqua H.P.

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The main ECRH scenarios for the W7-X Stellarator are described. Both X2 (low and moderate densities and O2 scenarios (high density have been studied. Since O2 scenario cannot be realized without pre-heating, transition from X2 to O2 scenarios has been discussed. Due to a lack of Ohmic transformer, only ECCD is available for compensating the bootstrap current and for controlling the edge rotational transform value. The efficiency of ECCD for all main scenarios has been estimated. All simulations have been performed by a 1D transport code coupled self-consistently with ray-tracing code.

Using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to Analyze Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystems within Northern California Climate Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Pitts, K.; Little, M.; Loewenstein, M.; Iraci, L. T.; Milesi, C.; Schmidt, C.; Skiles, J. W.

2011-12-01

The projected impacts of climate change on Northern California ecosystems using model outputs from the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) for the period 1950-2099 based on 1km downscaled climate data from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model are analyzed in this study. The impacts are analyzed for the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2, both maintaining present levels of urbanization constant and under projected urban expansion. The analysis is in support of the Climate Adaptation Science Investigation at NASA Ames Research Center. A statistical analysis is completed for time series of temperature, precipitation, gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration, soil runoff, and vapor pressure deficit. Trends produced from this analysis show that increases in maximum and minimum temperatures lead to declines in peak GPP, length of growing seasons, and overall declines in runoff within the watershed. For Northern California, GPP is projected under the A2 scenario to decrease by 18-25% by the 2090 decade as compared to the 2000 decade. These trends indicate a higher risk to crop production and other ecosystem services, as conditions would be less hospitable to vegetation growth. The increase in dried out vegetation would then lead to a higher risk of wildfire and mudslides in the mountainous regions.

B2B-myynnin nykytila ja haasteet Suomessa

OpenAIRE

Ylimaula, Jukka

2014-01-01

Tämä opinnäytetyö tutki B2B-myynnin nykytilaa valituissa suomalaisissa yrityksissä. Tutkimuksen tavoite oli selvittää myyntijohdon mielestä B2B-myynnissä tärkeitä asioita ja hahmottaa tapaa, jolla organisaatio toimii yhteistyössä myynnissä. Näin teemojen pohjalta opinnäytetyö pyrki muodostamaan ajankuvan suomalaisesta B2B-myynnistä. Opinnäytetyö muodostuu teoriaosasta ja empiirisestä osasta. Teoreettinen osuus tutkii myyntiä sekä myyjän että ostajan näkökulmasta. Myös asiakassuhteita ja m...

Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Liu

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.

Scenarios for ITS telecommunications technologies development in Poland for the years 2007-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kazimierz BARTCZAK

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The article shows four scenarios for the development of ITS communications technologies in Poland for the years 2007-2013. Global Business Network methodology is used to make up the scenarios. The basic dimensions of the scenarios are (a type of sectors in the national economy (public vs. private, (b type of communications technology (wireline vs. wireless. The scenarios present possible futures.

Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johns, T.C.; Hewitt, C.D. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Royer, J.F.; Salas y. Melia, D. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques-Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM-GAME Meteo-France CNRS), Toulouse (France); Hoeschel, I.; Koerper, J. [Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institute for Meteorology, Berlin (Germany); Huebener, H. [Hessian Agency for the Environment and Geology, Wiesbaden (Germany); Roeckner, E.; Giorgetta, M.A. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Manzini, E. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); May, W.; Yang, S. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark); Dufresne, J.L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), UMR 8539 CNRS, ENS, UPMC, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Otteraa, O.H. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Uni. Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Vuuren, D.P. van [Utrecht University, Utrecht (Netherlands); Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Denvil, S. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR 636 CNRS, UVSQ, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Fogli, P.G. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Tjiputra, J.F. [University of Bergen, Department of Geophysics, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Stehfest, E. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands)

2011-11-15

We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models, including five ESMs that contain interactive carbon cycles. Specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). The new aggressive mitigation scenario (E1), constructed using an integrated assessment model (IMAGE 2.4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K, is studied alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B. Resulting twenty-first century global mean warming and precipitation changes for A1B are broadly consistent with previous studies. In E1 twenty-first century global warming remains below 2 K in most models, but global mean precipitation changes are higher than in A1B up to 2065 and consistently higher per degree of warming. The spread in global temperature and precipitation responses is partly attributable to inter-model variations in aerosol loading and representations of aerosol-related radiative forcing effects. Our study illustrates that the benefits of mitigation will not be realised in temperature terms until several decades after emissions reductions begin, and may vary considerably between regions. A subset of the models containing integrated carbon cycles agree that land and ocean sinks remove roughly half of present day anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and that anthropogenic carbon emissions must decrease by at least 50% by 2050 relative

CO2 mitigation scenarios in China's road transport sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Can; Cai, Wenjia; Lu, Xuedu; Chen, Jining

2007-01-01

China is the world's second largest greenhouse gas emitter, and emissions from the road transport sector represent one of the fastest growing GHG sources in China. Taking previous research on China's projected future vehicle ownership and future CO 2 emissions in the transport sector as a starting point, this paper reviews all recent environmental policies relating to the automobile industry and employs a scenario analysis to estimate different emissions inventories for different development strategies. The new policy scenario considers all possible mitigation options available to the road transport sector from a bottom up perspective and examines the effects for fuel efficiency improvement and the cost of these mitigation options - vehicle technology improvement, bus rapid transit system and fuel switching, through which the carbon dioxide emissions reduction potential is estimated. Not only does this paper indicate that a large emissions reduction potential exists in China's road transport sector, but it implies that vehicle technology improvement, especially engine technology is likely to be the most effective means to meet emissions reduction targets. This paper concludes by identifying key barriers to implementing those options in China and deduces the technical, financial and institutional aspects of the demand in China for national capacity building and international aid in order to achieve the emissions reduction goals

Modelling the long term impact of climate change on the carbon budget of Lake Simcoe, Ontario using INCA-C.

Science.gov (United States)

Oni, S K; Futter, M N; Molot, L A; Dillon, P J

2012-01-01

This study presents a process-based model of dissolved organic carbon concentration ([DOC]) in catchments draining into Lake Simcoe, Ontario. INCA-C, the Integrated Catchment model for Carbon, incorporates carbon biogeochemical processes in a terrestrial system with hydrologic flow paths to simulate watershed wide [DOC]. The model successfully simulates present-day inter-annual and seasonal [DOC] dynamics in tributaries draining catchments with mixed or contrasting land cover in the Lake Simcoe watershed (LSW). The sensitivity of INCA-C to soil moisture, hydrologic controls and land uses within a watershed demonstrates its significance as a tool to explore pertinent environmental issues specific to the LSW. Projections of climate change under A1B and A2 SRES scenarios suggest a continuous monotonic increase in [DOC] in surface waters draining into Lake Simcoe. Large variations in seasonal DOC dynamics are predicted to occur during summer with a possibility of displacement of summer [DOC] maxima towards winter and a prolongation of summer [DOC] levels into the autumn. INCA-C also predicts possible increases in dissolved inorganic carbon in some tributaries with rising temperature suggesting increased CO(2) emissions from rivers as climate changes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hotelzon's B2B content marketing plan

OpenAIRE

Nguyen, Trang

2015-01-01

This thesis follows a research-based structure. The objective of this research was to help the case company Hotelzon develop a practical business-to-business (B2B) content marketing plan to engage new customers. The research topic came up when the case company named Hotelzon started expanding its business to many other countries. Therefore, attracting new prospects has become a critical issue to B2B corporates in this online world and constantly changing business environment. The first pa...

A Model of B2B Exchanges

OpenAIRE

Gabor Fath; Miklos Sarvary

2001-01-01

B2B exchanges are revolutionizing the way businesses will buy and sell a variety of intermediary products and services. It is estimated that most of the roughly $7 trillion worth of business transactions are likely to go through these new institutions within the next decade. This paper tries to understand the economics governing the transactions within B2B exchanges and analyze their likely evolution over time. In doing so, we start by providing the rigorous definitions to a number of critica...

Feasibility study of advanced operation scenario in KSTAR using CRONOS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, H.-S.; Na, Y.-S.; Bae, Y.S.; Jeon, Y.M.; Kim, S.H.; Artaud, J.-F.

2014-01-01

We report the results of predictive modelling of advanced operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the operation windows are produced to explore the KSTAR advanced scenarios in the condition of upgrading H/CD mix. Using METIS code, the rough ranges of operation condition of I_P and B_T to utilize for the development of advanced operation scenario scenario are determined. Secondly, the advanced inductive and the advanced tokamak operation scenario of KSTAR are developing with the scaling based and the physics based transport model by using CRONOS to make a suggestion to on-going KSTAR experiment. Thirdly, the dependency of the time of L-H transition on q_0 an q_m_i_n is investigated for the advanced inductive operation scenario. These reliable results can become the useful database for exploring the advanced regime of KSTAR discharges in the future. (author)

ORM-based semantics of B2B transactions.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Balsters, H.; van Blommestein, F.; Meersman, R; Herrero, P; Dillon, T

2009-01-01

After widespread implementation of Enterprise Resource Planning and Personal Information Management, the next wave in the application of ICT is headed towards business to business (B2B) communication. B2B has a number of specific aspects, one of them being negotiation. This aspect has been largely

Atmospheric and geological CO2 damage costs in energy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smekens, K.E.L.; Van der Zwaan, B.C.C.

2006-05-01

Geological carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is currently seriously considered for addressing, in the near term, the problem of climate change. CCS technology is available today and is expected to become an increasingly affordable CO2 abatement alternative. Whereas the rapidly growing scientific literature on CCS as well as experimental and commercial practice demonstrate the technological and economic feasibility of implementing this clean fossil fuel option on a large scale, relatively little attention has been paid so far to the risks and environmental externalities of geological storage of CO2. This paper assesses the effects of including CCS damage costs in a long-term energy scenario analysis for Europe. An external cost sensitivity analysis is performed with a bottom-up energy technology model that accounts not only for CCS technologies but also for their external costs. Our main conclusion is that in a business-as-usual scenario (i.e. without climate change intervention or externality internalisation), CCS technologies are likely to be deployed at least to some extent, mainly in the power generation sector, given the economic benefits of opportunities such as enhanced coal bed methane, oil and gas recovery. Under a strict climate (CO2 emissions) constraint, CCS technologies are deployed massively. With the simultaneous introduction of both CO2 and CCS taxation in the power sector, designed to internalise the external atmospheric and geological effects of CO2 emissions and storage, respectively, we find that CCS will only be developed if the climate change damage costs are at least of the order of 100 euro/t CO2 or the CO2 storage damage costs not more than a few euro/t CO2. When the internalised climate change damage costs are as high as 67 euro/t CO2, the expensive application of CCS to biomass-fuelled power plants (with negative net CO2 emissions) proves the most effective CCS alternative to reduce CO2 emissions, rather than CCS applied to fossil

Nanostructure characterization of Ni and B layers as artificial pinning centers in multilayered MgB2/Ni and MgB2/B superconducting thin films

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sosiati, H.; Hata, S.; Doi, T.; Matsumoto, A.; Kitaguchi, H.; Nakashima, H.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Nanostructure characterization of Ni and B layers as artificial pinning centers (APCs). ► Relationship between nanostructure and J c property. ► Enhanced J c in parallel field by parallel APCs within the MgB 2 film. -- Abstract: Research on the MgB 2 /Ni and MgB 2 /B multilayer films fabricated by an electron beam (EB) evaporation technique have been extensively carried out. The critical current density, J c of MgB 2 /Ni and MgB 2 /B multilayer films in parallel fields has been suggested to be higher than that of monolayer MgB 2 film due to introducing the artificial pinning centers of nano-sized Ni and B layers. Nanostructure characterization of the artificial pinning centers in the multilayer films were examined by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and scanning TEM (STEM-energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (STEM-EDS))–EDS to understand the mechanism of flux pinning. The growth of columnar MgB 2 grains along the film-thickness direction was recognized in the MgB 2 /Ni multilayer film, but not in the MgB 2 /B multilayer film. Nano-sized Ni layers were present as crystalline epitaxial layers which is interpreted that Ni atoms might be incorporated into the MgB 2 lattice to form (Mg,Ni)B 2 phase. On the other hand, nano-sized B layers were amorphous layers. Crystalline (Mg,Ni)B 2 layers worked more effectively than amorphous B-layers, providing higher flux-pinning force that resulted in higher J c of the MgB 2 /Ni multilayer film than the MgB 2 /B multilayer film

Effect of TiB2 Pretreatment on Pt/TiB2 Catalyst Performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Zhen; Lin, Rui; Fan, Renjie; Fan, Qinbai; Ma, Jianxin

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We pretreated Titanium diboride by different acids and alkali. • We synthesis the Pt/as-pretreated TiB 2 catalysts by a colloid route. • We investigated the effects of TiB 2 Pretreatment on Pt/TiB 2 Catalyst Performance. • The BET surface area and defects on the surface have a close relationship with the deposition of Pt nanoparticles. - Abstract: Carbon support corrosion of traditional Pt/C catalyst is one of the major contributors causing poor durability of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFC). Titanium diboride (TiB 2 ) has high electrical conductivity and considerable chemical stability, which making it as a good candidate for catalyst support in PEMFC. In this work, TiB 2 was pretreated by different acid and alkali. The as-obtained samples were characterized by Ex-situ microscopy (ESM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The pore size distribution (PSD) was analyzed by using DFT method. The PSD shows distinct volume in mesopore regions (less than 50 nm). The TiB2 pretreated by H 2 O 2 shows the biggest BET surface area of 57 m 2 g −1 and its PSD focus on mesoporous (1.5-8 nm) region, which resulted to high dispersion and better loading of Pt particles. The Hydrogen oxidization reaction (HOR) and oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) activity was characterized by Rotating Disk Electrode (RDE). The Pt/TiB 2 prepared by H 2 O 2 -pretreated TiB 2 using the colloidal method showed better half-cell electrochemical performance. Facile synthetic for the development of Pt/TiB 2 catalysts was developed

Scenario for a warm, high-CO/sub 2/ world

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wigley, T M.L.; Jones, P D; Kelly, P M

1980-01-03

To assess the impact of global changes in temperature, precipitation, and winds that might occur as a result of increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, a meteorologically and climatologically realistic scenario of global warming was developed. The patterns of climatic changes that could result from a large increase in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ were determined by comparing the five warmest years from 1925-74 with the five coldest years in the same period. Results indicate that increased atmospheric CO/sub 2/ will cause temperature increases in most regions of the world, with maximum temperature increases occurring in northern Asia. A few isolated regions, however, will be cooler. Precipitation will increase over India and decrease in regions of the U.S., Europe, and the USSR. The social, political, and economic impacts of these changes are briefly considered. (2 maps, 34 references)

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

2018-09-01

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision

xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-03-01

This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

B2B Models for DoD Acquisition

Science.gov (United States)

2007-07-30

product design, demand forecasting, asset management, and sales and marketing plans 35 Proctor & Gamble’s Private Industrial Network SOURCE: Laudon... B2B Models for DoD Acquisition 30 July 2007 by Magdi N. Kamel, Associate Professor Graduate School of Operational & Information Sciences...number. 1. REPORT DATE 30 JUL 2007 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2007 to 00-00-2007 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE B2B Models for DoD

Long term prospective of the Seine River system: Confronting climatic and direct anthropogenic changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ducharne, A.; Baubion, C.; Beaudoin, N.; Benoit, M.; Billen, G.; Brisson, N.; Garnier, J.; Kieken, H.; Lebonvallet, S.; Ledoux, E.; Mary, B.; Mignolet, C.; Poux, X.; Sauboua, E.; Schott, C.; Thery, S.; Viennot, P.

2007-01-01

To explore the evolution of a human impacted river, the Seine (France), over the 21st century, three driving factors were examined: climate, agriculture, and point source inputs of domestic and industrial origin. Three future scenarios were constructed, by modification of a baseline representative of recent conditions. A climate change scenario, based on simulations by a general circulation model driven by the SRES-A2 scenario of radiative forcing, accounts for an average warming of + 3.3 deg. C over the watershed and marked winter increase and summer decrease in precipitation. To illustrate a possible reduction in nitrate pollution from agricultural origin, a scenario of good agricultural practices was considered, introducing catch crops and a 20% decrease in nitrogen fertilisation. Future point source pollution was estimated following the assumptions embedded in scenario SRES-A2 regarding demographic, economic and technologic changes, leading to reductions of 30 to 75% compared to 2000, depending on the pollutants. Four models, addressing separate components of the river system (agronomical model, hydrogeological model, land surface model and water quality model), were used to analyse the relative impact of these scenarios on water quality, in light of their impact on hydrology and crop production. The first-order driving factor of water quality over the 21st century is the projected reduction of point source pollution, inducing a noticeable decrease in eutrophication and oxygen deficits downstream from Paris. The impact of climate change on these terms is driven by the warming of the water column. It enhances algal growth in spring and the loss factors responsible for phytoplankton mortality in late summer (grazers and viruses). In contrast, increased seasonal contrasts in river discharge have a negligible impact on river water quality, as do the changes in riverine nitrate concentration, which never gets limiting. The latter changes have a similar magnitude

Effect of RCIC Operating Conditions on the Accident Scenario in Fukushima Unit 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung Il; Park, Jong Hwa; Ha, Kwang Soon

2015-01-01

This study was conducted by using MELCOR 1.8.6. Fukushima unit 2 accident was analyzed using MELCOR in this study, and best estimate scenario with considering RCIC operating conditions was presented. Researches on the boiling water reactor (BWR) plant with reactor core isolation cooling (RCIC) system have been conducted. Research on the RCIC operation in Fukushima unit 2 was also conducted by Sandia National Laboratory. MELCOR analysis of the Fukushima unit 2 accident was conducted in the report and energy balance in wetwell was described by considering RCIC operation. However, the effect of RCIC operation condition on the accident scenario has not been studied. The operating conditions of RCIC system affect the pressures in wetwell and drywell, and the high pressure can make leakage path of fission product from PCV to reactor building. Thus it can be directly related with the amount of fission product which released to environment. In this study, severe accident on Fukushima unit 2 was analyzed considering the operating condition of RCIC system, and best estimated scenario was presented. In addition, the effect of RCIC turbine efficiency on the accident progression was examined. Energy balance in suppression chamber was also considered with discussion on the effect of torus room flooding level. It was found that the operating condition of RCIC turbine not only affects the variation of drywell pressure but also the amount of released fission products to environment. It was also confirmed that the RCIC turbine efficiency in the accident would be less than normal operating condition

B2B-myyntiprosessi : case: Yritys X

OpenAIRE

Lamppu, Samuli

2017-01-01

Opinnäytetyön aiheena on B2B-myyntiprosessi yrityksessä x. Työn tavoitteena on kartoittaa yrityksen B2B-myyntiprosessin nykytila, tunnistaa mahdolliset ongelma-alueet ja tehdä tämän perusteella ehdotukset toimenpiteistä prosessin parantamiseksi. Työ tehdään suomalaisen PK-yrityksen toimeksiannosta. Opinnäytetyön taustalla on oma urani yrityksen yritysmyynnissä, ja työni kautta tunnistamani haasteet sekä mahdollisuudet, joita hyödyntämällä yritys voisi kehittää myyntitoimintaansa. Yritykse...

From carbonization to decarbonization?-Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steckel, Jan Christoph; Jakob, Michael; Marschinski, Robert; Luderer, Gunnar

2011-01-01

Along the lines of the Kaya identity, we perform a decomposition analysis of historical and projected emissions data for China. We compare the results with reduction requirements implied by globally cost-effective mitigation scenarios and official Chinese policy targets. For the years 1971-2000 we find that the impact of high economic growth on emissions was partially compensated by a steady fall in energy intensity. However, the end - and even reversal - of this downward trend, along with a rising carbon intensity of energy, resulted in rapid emission growth during 2000-2007. By applying an innovative enhanced Kaya-decomposition method, we also show how the persistent increase in the use of coal has caused carbon intensity to rise throughout the entire time-horizon of the analysis. These insights are then compared to model scenarios for future energy system developments generated by the ReMIND-R model. The analysis reaffirms China's indispensable role in global efforts to implement any of three exemplary stabilization targets (400, 450, or 500 ppm CO 2 -only), and underscore the increasing importance of carbon intensity for the more ambitious targets. Finally, we compare China's official targets for energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP to projections for global cost-effective stabilization scenarios, finding them to be roughly compatible in the short-to-mid-term. - Highlights: → An extended Kaya-decomposition is applied to historical data and ReMIND-R scenario results for China. → Reversing a historic trend, energy intensity has increased in recent years. → The contribution of coal in increasing carbon intensity and emissions has been constant in the past. → Decarbonization becomes increasingly important with increasingly ambitious climate targets. → Chinese targets for carbon intensity of GDP are in line with a 450 ppm CO 2 -only stabilization scenario.

Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

2012-01-01

scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shaojian; Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong

2015-01-01

This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pasaoglu, Guzay; Honselaar, Michel; Thiel, Christian

2012-01-01

The continuous rise in demand for road transportation has a significant effect on Europe's oil dependency and emissions of greenhouse gases. Alternative fuels and vehicle technology can mitigate these effects. This study analyses power-train deployment scenarios for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in EU-27 until 2050. It considers European policy developments on vehicle CO 2 emissions, bio-energy mandates and reductions in the CO 2 footprint of the European energy mix and translates these into comprehensive scenarios for the road transport sector. It quantifies and assesses the potential impact of these scenarios on well-to-wheel (WtW) CO 2 emission reductions primary energy demand evolution, and cost aspects for the prospective vehicle owners. The study reveals that, under the deployed scenarios, the use of bio-fuel blends, technological learning and the deployment of hybrids, battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell vehicles can decrease WtW CO 2 emissions in EU-27 passenger road transport by 35–57% (compared to 2010 levels) and primary energy demand by 29–51 Mtoe as they would benefit from a future assumed decarbonised electricity and hydrogen mix in Europe. Learning effects can lead to acceptable payback periods for vehicle owners of electric drive vehicles. - Highlights: ► Power-train penetration scenarios for 2010–2050 passenger road transport in Europe. ► A dedicated tool is developed to analyse H 2 production and distribution mix till 2050. ► Alternative vehicles can drastically reduce CO 2 emissions and energy demand. ► Electric vehicles could become cost competitive to conventional vehicles by 2030. ► Policies needed to create adequate momentum and guarantee decarbonised transport.

Second generation CO2 FEP analysis: Cassifcarbon sequestration scenario identification framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yavuz, F.T.; Tilburg, T. van; Pagnier, H.

2008-01-01

A novel scenario analysis framework has been created, called Carbon Sequestration Scenario Identification Framework (CASSIF). This framework addresses containment performance defined by the three major categories: well, fault and seal integrity. The relevant factors that influence the integrity are

Applying conceptual design to B2B sales negotiations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Illi, Mikko; Ylirisku, Salu

This paper addresses the challenge of perceiving B2B sales negotiation in a manner that would open up new possibilities for the improvement of the practice. B2B sales agents work under high pressure in developing relevant and appealing proposals when negotiating for a deal with a customer. The key...... problem that will be addressed is the building of understanding of a customer’s current needs and requirements, and then trying to devise an appropriate proposal to match these. The work of the sales agents in B2B sales negotiations is highly complex, as they need to understand both the modular machinery...... on the ways in which design sense making artefacts may drive also B2B sales agents’ work....

Microstructural characterization of LaB6-ZrB2 eutectic composites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Shengchang; Wei, W.J.; Zhang Litong

2003-01-01

Detail microstructure of LaB 6 -ZrB 2 composites has been characterized by TEM and HRTEM. The directionally solidified ZrB 2 fibers in LaB 6 matrix near LaB 6 -ZrB 2 eutectics present at least three growing relationship systems. In addition to previous report of [001]LaB 6 / [0001]ZrB 2 relationship, [0 anti 11]LaB 6 / [0001]ZrB 2 and [1 anti 20]LaB 6 / [0001]ZrB 2 . were identified. Different with [001]LaB 6 / [0001]ZrB 2 system, the interfaces of [0 anti 11]LaB 6 / [0001]ZrB 2 and [1 anti 20]LaB 6 / [0001]ZrB 2 . show non-coherent and clean interfaces. There is neither glassy phase nor reaction products found at the interfaces (orig.)

Expanded Capabilities for the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc; Penev, Michael

2016-06-08

This presentation describes how NREL expanded the capabilities for the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) in FY16. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 8, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Harnessing marketing automation for B2B content marketing

OpenAIRE

Järvinen, Joel; Taiminen, Heini

2016-01-01

The growing importance of the Internet to B2B customer purchasing decisions has motivated B2B sellers to create digital content that leads potential buyers to interact with their company. This trend has engendered a new paradigm referred to as ‘content marketing.’ This study investigates the organizational processes for developing valuable and timely content to meet customer needs and for integrating content marketing with B2B selling processes. The results of this single case study demonstra...

ORM-Based Semantics of B2B Transactions

Science.gov (United States)

Balsters, H.; van Blommestein, F.

After widespread implementation of Enterprise Resource Planning and Personal Information Management, the next wave in the application of ICT is headed towards business to business (B2B) communication. B2B has a number of specific aspects, one of them being negotiation. This aspect has been largely neglected by present implementations of standard EDI- or XML-messaging and by B2B webservice implementations. In this paper a precise model is given of the negotiation process. The requirements of a potential Buyer and the offer of a potential Seller are matched and, if the negotiation is successful, a contract is concluded. The negotiation process model is represented in ORM, extended with dynamic constraints. Our model may be implemented in the databases of the trading partners and in message- or service definitions.

Thermodynamic Forecasts of the Mediterranean Sea Acidification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. GOYET

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Anthropogenic CO2 is a major driver of the present ocean acidification. This latter is threatening the marine ecosystems and has been identified as a major environmental and economic menace. This study aims to forecast from the thermodynamic equations, the acidification variation (ΔpH of the Mediterranean waters over the next few decades and beyond this century. In order to do so, we calculated and fitted the theoretical values based upon the initial conditions from data of the 2013 MedSeA cruise. These estimates have been performed both for the Western and for the Eastern basins based upon their respective physical (temperature and salinity and chemical (total alkalinity and total inorganic carbon properties. The results allow us to point out four tipping points, including one when the Mediterranean Sea waters would become acid (pH<7. In order to provide an associated time scale to the theoretical results, we used two of the IPCC (2007 atmospheric CO2 scenarios. Under the most optimistic scenario of the “Special Report: Emissions Scenarios” (SRES of the IPCC (2007, the results indicate that in 2100, pH may decrease down to 0.245 in the Western basin and down to 0.242 in the Eastern basin (compared to the pre-industrial pH. Whereas for the most pessimistic SRES scenario of the IPCC (2007, the results for the year 2100, forecast a pH decrease down to 0.462 and 0.457, for the Western and for the Eastern basins, respectively. Acidification, which increased unprecedentedly in recent years, will rise almost similarly in both Mediterranean basins only well after the end of this century. These results further confirm that both basins may become undersaturated (< 1 with respect to calcite and aragonite (at the base of the mixed layer depth, only in the far future (in a few centuries.

Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

2007-01-01

Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

Sweden's Future Climate in the short- and medium-term perspective. Basis for development of climate adaptation tools; Sveriges framtida klimat paa kort och medellaang sikt. Underlag foer utveckling av verktyg foer klimatanpassning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlsen, Henrik; Parmhed, Oskar

2008-12-15

This report studies two questions - how the actual amount of greenhouse gas emissions has changed over time in comparison with previous assumptions and what will happen to Sweden's climate from short and medium term perspectives given the future development of the climate in general. The content of this report shall be used as the basis for continued work in the development of climate adaptation tools that can be used primarily in Sweden. The first section of this report presents the development of actual greenhouse gas emissions in recent years. Eight years have passed since IPCC published its emissions scenarios (SRES) and for this reason a comparison between the emissions levels from the report and the experimental data from observations made in recent years is well due. Measurements show that current levels of emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels exceed the average of the SRES families as a whole. Among other implications, this means that emission levels are significantly higher than the levels assumed in the climate scenarios of the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability (Klimat- och saarbarhetsutredningen). There is little support from the experimental data to indicate that this rate of increase will subside. In addition, studies are indicating that the increased emissions are not solely attributable to a rise in population levels and increased wealth (GNP/capita). Another aspect is that the carbon intensity, measured as the amount of carbon dioxide per unit production price, has been declining since 2000. This is entirely contrary to the assumptions made in all of the emissions scenarios in SRES that carbon dioxide efficiency would continue to increase. The report therefore concludes that work with climate adaptation in Sweden must take into consideration to a greater extent than is currently done today the consequences of emissions levels that are in line with or exceed the highest SRES levels. The second section of this report takes

River Flow Prediction for Future Climate Using Long Series of Multi-Site Synthetic Data and MIKE SHE Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuchar Leszek

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A new simulation of daily flow for Kaczawa River, south-west Poland for extra long series of generated meteorological data (comparing to previous research and selected climate change scenarios are presented. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs scenarios vs. SRES are introduced for simulations. The flow simulation in the river catchment is made using MIKE SHE hydrological model while the multisite data are generated by spatial weather generator SWGEN. Simulations are done for 2040 and 2060 while the simulations for the year 2000 are used as a background. The large number of new simulated series determined by the lead time, three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, and number of generated years (1000 for each case is equal to 7000 for a single station. Finally, Pdf function for flow is presented as well probability of exceedance of maximum flow.

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Electronic Commerce in Tourism in China: B2B or B2C?

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Hongxiu; Suomi, Reima

E-commerce has significantly changed the distribution channels of travel products in the world including China. Online channels are growing important in travel service distribution. In China tourism industry has been developed rapidly with the economic development, more and more international travel service providers are trying to expand their Chinese market through the Internet. This paper sheds lights on the e-commerce development models in China for international travel service providers. It explores the current e-tourism in China from the three different participants in the value chain in tourism industry - consumer, travel agent and travel service provider. The paper also identifies the barriers in B2C arena in international outbound travel market, and discusses the possible approaches for international travel service providers to develop their e-commerce in the huge Chinese market. The results in this study reveal that international travel service providers should focus on B2B model to expand their electronic market in China. B2C development in tourism largely depends on the change of Chinese customers' behavior and the change of international tourism regulations. The findings of the study are expected to assist international travel service providers to understand current e-tourism in China and to support their planning for future e-commerce development in China.

Component Based System Framework for Dynamic B2B Interaction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hu jinmin, Jinmin; Grefen, P.W.P.J.

Business-to-Business (B2B) collaboration is becoming a pivotal way to bring today's enterprises to success in the dynamically changing e-business environment. Though many business-to-business protocols are developed to support B2B interaction, none are generally accepted. A B2B system should support

Contextualized B2B Registries

OpenAIRE

Radetzki, U; Boniface, M.J.; Surridge, M.

2007-01-01

Abstract. Service discovery is a fundamental concept underpinning the move towards dynamic service-oriented business partnerships. The business process for integrating service discovery and underlying registry technologies into busi-ness relationships, procurement and project management functions has not been examined and hence existing Web Service registries lack capabilities required by business today. In this paper we present a novel contextualized B2B registry that supports dynamic regist...

Lattice Thermal Conductivity from Atomistic Simulations: ZrB2 and HfB2

Science.gov (United States)

Lawson, John W.; Daw, Murray S.; Bauschlicher, Charles W.

2012-01-01

Ultra high temperature ceramics (UHTC) including ZrB2 and HfB2 have a number of properties that make them attractive for applications in extreme environments. One such property is their high thermal conductivity. Computational modeling of these materials will facilitate understanding of fundamental mechanisms, elucidate structure-property relationships, and ultimately accelerate the materials design cycle. Progress in computational modeling of UHTCs however has been limited in part due to the absence of suitable interatomic potentials. Recently, we developed Tersoff style parameterizations of such potentials for both ZrB2 and HfB2 appropriate for atomistic simulations. As an application, Green-Kubo molecular dynamics simulations were performed to evaluate the lattice thermal conductivity for single crystals of ZrB2 and HfB2. The atomic mass difference in these binary compounds leads to oscillations in the time correlation function of the heat current, in contrast to the more typical monotonic decay seen in monoatomic materials such as Silicon, for example. Results at room temperature and at elevated temperatures will be reported.

Il B2B e il paradigma dei costi di transazione (B2B and the Transaction Costs Paradigm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pierluigi Sabbatini

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Business to Business (B2B Internet commerce causes a significant contraction of transaction costs. According to the Coase paradigm, we would thus expect a deverticalization of the industry and broader scope for anonymous market mechanisms. In reality, such expectations are not fully borne out by the facts. When the industrial structure is concentrated the B2Bgenerally loses its independence, and is owned by the firms which most contribute to its development, e.g. the ones able to bring the liquidity to it. The B2B governance mechanism established by these firms gives hierarchical mechanisms a role which they do not usually play in extensive, anonymous markets.         JEL Codes: D23, L86Keywords: Cost, Transaction Costs, Transactions

Identification of UGT2B9*2 and UGT2B33 isolated from female rhesus monkey liver.

Science.gov (United States)

Dean, Brian; Arison, Byron; Chang, Steve; Thomas, Paul E; King, Christopher

2004-06-01

Two UDP-glucuronosyltransferases (UGT2B9(*)2 and UGT2B33) have been isolated from female rhesus monkey liver. Microsomal preparations of the cell lines expressing the UGTs catalyzed the glucuronidation of the general substrate 7-hydroxy-4-(trifluoromethyl)coumarin in addition to selected estrogens (beta-estradiol and estriol) and opioids (morphine, naloxone, and naltrexone). UGT2B9(*)2 displayed highest efficiency for beta-estradiol-17-glucuronide production and did not catalyze the glucuronidation of naltrexone. UGT2B33 displayed highest efficiency for estriol and did not catalyze the glucuronidation of beta-estradiol. UGT2B9(*)2 was found also to catalyze the glucuronidation of 4-hydroxyestrone, 16-epiestriol, and hyodeoxycholic acid, while UGT2B33 was capable of conjugating 4-hydroxyestrone, androsterone, diclofenac, and hyodeoxycholic acid. Three glucocorticoids (cortisone, cortisol, and corticosterone) were not substrates for glucuronidation by liver or kidney microsomes or any expressed UGTs. Our current data suggest the use of beta-estradiol-3-glucuronidation, beta-estradiol-17-glucuronidation, and estriol-17-glucuronidation to assay UGT1A01, UGT2B9(*)2, and UGT2B33 activity in rhesus liver microsomes, respectively.

The nature of Zb states from a combined analysis of Υ(5S) → hb(mP)π+π- and Υ(5S) → B(*) anti B(*)π

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huo, Wen-Sheng; Chen, Guo-Ying

2016-01-01

With a combined analysis of data on Υ(5S) → h b (1P, 2P)π + π - and Υ(5S) → B (*) anti B (*) π in an effective field theory approach, we determine resonance parameters of Z b states in two scenarios. In one scenario we assume that Z b states are pure molecular states, while in the other one we assume that Z b states contain compact components. We find that the present data favor that there should be some compact components inside Z b (') associated with themolecular components. By fitting the invariant mass spectra of Υ(5S) → h b (1P, 2P)π + π - and Υ(5S) → B (*) anti B * π, we determine that the probability of finding the compact components in Z b states may be as large as about 40 %. (orig.)

Future road salt use in Switzerland: an example of an effective climate service

Science.gov (United States)

Zubler, Elias M.; Fischer, Andreas M.; Schlegel, Thomas H.; Liniger, Mark A.

2015-04-01

The application of salt is the predominant measure taken to enhance road safety in Switzerland by clearing the roads from snow or preventing frozen surfaces during winter. The need for road salt exhibits a strong interannual variability, according to Schweizer Salinen AG - the Swiss monopolist for production and distribution of road salt. These fluctuations are to a large extent a direct consequence of the year-to-year variability in winter climate. In the course of the 21st century, Swiss climate is projected to depart significantly from present and past conditions. By the end of the century, winter temperatures over Switzerland are expected to rise by about 2-4°C relative to the mean over the period 1980-2009, while winter precipitation may either increase or decrease based on ENSEMBLES regional climate model projections under the SRES-scenario A1B. Faced with these changes, Schweizer Salinen AG asked for an estimate of the expected future road salt use for designing their long-term business strategy. The study is based on climate change projections from the CH2011 initiative and later extensions thereof as well as monthly sales data of road salt from Schweizer Salinen AG. For the period 1997-2013, a linear relationship was derived between the average number of days with snowfall and the road salt amount sold over "saltation years" defined from October 1st to September 30th in the 26 cantons (provinces) of Switzerland. The ad-hoc linear relationship was applied to the climate change projections to obtain future salt use information in three future periods for the greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B, A2 and RCP3PD. We find that the expected future salt use is likely to be reduced by about 50% in 2045-2074 under the scenario A1B. Currently, the countrywide mean annual road salt use corresponds to about 220'000 tons. In a particularly snow-rich year, the company sells up to 400'000 tons. At the end of the century, following a pessimistic scenario such as A1B or A

Combustion synthesis of AlB2-Al2O3 composite powders with AlB2 nanowire structures

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Pan; Xiao, Guoqing; Ding, Donghai; Ren, Yun; Yang, Shoulei; Lv, Lihua; Hou, Xing

2018-05-01

Using of Al and B2O3 powders as starting materials, and Mg-Al alloy as additives, AlB2-Al2O3 composite powders with AlB2 nanowire structures were successfully fabricated via combustion synthesis method in Ar atmosphere at a pressure of 1.5 MPa. The effect of different amount of Mg-Al alloy on the phase compositions and morphology of the combustion products was investigated. The results revealed that AlB2 and Al2O3 increased, whereas Al decreased with the content of Mg-Al alloy increasing. The impurities MgAl2O4 and AlB12 would exist in the sample with adding of 18 wt% Mg-Al alloy. Interestingly, FESEM/TEM/EDS results showed that AlB2 nanowires were observed in the products when the content of Mg-Al alloy is 6 wt% and 12 wt%. The more AlB2 nanowires can be found as the content of Mg-Al alloy increased. And the yield of AlB2 nanowires with the diameter of about 200 nanometers (nm) and the length up to several tens of micrometers (μm) in the combustion product is highest when the content of Mg-Al alloy is 12 wt%. The vapor, such as Mg-Al (g), B2O2 (g), AlO (g) and Al2O (g), produced during the process of combustion synthesis, reacted with each other to yield AlB2 nanowires by vapor-solid (VS) mechanism and the corresponding model was also proposed.

Deliberate and Crisis Action Planning and Execution Segments Increment 2B (DCAPES Inc 2B)

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

2016 Major Automated Information System Annual Report Deliberate and Crisis Action Planning and Execution Segments Increment 2B (DCAPES Inc 2B...Information Program Name Deliberate and Crisis Action Planning and Execution Segments Increment 2B (DCAPES Inc 2B) DoD Component Air Force Responsible Office...been established. DCAPES Inc 2B 2016 MAR UNCLASSIFIED 4 Program Description Deliberate and Crisis Action Planning and Execution Segments (DCAPES) is

Regional climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-01-01

Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study. Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses: Main Text and Appendices A, B, C, D, and F

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plotkin, Steve [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Singh, Margaret [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Patterson, Phil [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Ward, Jake [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Wood, Frances [OnLocation Inc., Vienna, VA (United States); Kydes, Niko [OnLocation Inc., Vienna, VA (United States); Holte, John [OnLocation Inc., Vienna, VA (United States); Moore, Jim [TA Engineering, Inc., Catonsville, MD (United States); Miller, Grant [TA Engineering, Inc., Catonsville, MD (United States); Das, Sujit [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Greene, David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2009-07-22

This report provides details for Phase 2 of the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study, which compares alternative ways to make significant reductions in oil use and carbon emissions from U.S. light vehicles to 2050. Phase I, completed in 2009, examined the full range of pathways of interest to EERE, with multiple scenarios aimed at revealing the issues and impacts associated with a national effort to reduce U.S. dependence on oil use in transportation. Phase 2 expanded the scope of the analysis by examining the interactive effects of multiple pathways on each other and on oil and feedstock prices, focusing far more on costs; and substantially increasing the number of metrics used to compare pathways and scenarios.

Influence of hydrological models on cumulative flow simulation under climate change scenarios : an application in the Baskatong watershed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chartier, I.

2006-01-01

Since Hydro-Quebec owns and operates many hydroelectric power plants, from which it draws 96 per cent of its electricity, the electric utility found it necessary to study the impact of climate change on water resources and cumulative flow. This paper described Hydro-Quebec's method for evaluating climatic change impacts using hydrological simulations, with particular reference to the Baskatong watershed in the Outaouais region of Quebec. This basin is one of 5 sub-basins within the Gatineau River. Hydro-Quebec's studies were conducted using 3 hydrological models known as MOHYSE, HSAMI and HYDROTEL; 4 general circulation models (GCM) known as HadCM3, CSIRO, ECHAM4 and CGCM3; and, 4 greenhouse gas scenarios called A1, B1, A2 and B2. GCMs were shown to have a larger impact on the final hydrological simulation result compared to greenhouse gas scenarios or the hydrological models, although the latter two did have a significant impact on the final result of the simulation. Each scenario provided long term predictions despite the use of different models. The study demonstrated that many regions will have to rely on a range of GCM for more elaborate climatic scenarios. 9 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs

Thermoelastic properties of ScB2, TiB2, YB4 and HoB4

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Waskowska, A.; Gerward, L.; Staun Olsen, J.

2011-01-01

(4)GPa). No pressure-induced phase transformations are observed in any of the above borides up to about 20GPa. A continuous temperature-driven orthorhombic distortion is observed for HoB4 below 285K. Values of the thermal expansion coefficient are reported for ScB2 and HoB4 at 293, 200 and 100K...

Separated before birth: pulsars B2020+28 and B2021+51 as the remnants of runaway stars

Science.gov (United States)

Gvaramadze, V. V.

2007-08-01

Astrometric data on the pulsars B2020+28 and B2021+51 suggest that they originated within several parsecs of each other in the direction of the Cyg OB2 association. It was proposed that the pulsars share their origin in a common massive binary and were separated at the birth of the second pulsar following the asymmetric supernova explosion. We consider a different scenario for the origin of the pulsar pair based on a possibility that the pulsars were separated before their birth and that they are the remnants of runaway stars ejected (with velocities similar to those of the pulsars) from the core of Cyg OB2 due to strong three- or four-body dynamical encounters. Our scenario does not require any asymmetry in supernova explosions.

Higgs particle production at LEP in multi-doublet scenarios with hierarchy of the vacuum expectation values

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalinowski, J.; Pokorski, S.

1989-01-01

We discuss the production at LEP of Higgs particles in multi-doublet scenarios with a hierarchy of the vacuum expectation values ν 2 /ν 1 ≅m t /m b . The cross sections are similar or larger than for the standard Higgs boson of the same mass but the signature is different. Events with four b-jets are the only important signature of such Higgs particles. (orig.)

Short syntheses of enantiopure calystegine B-2, B-3, and B-4

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skaanderup, Philip Robert; Madsen, Robert

2001-01-01

Calystegine B-2 B-3, and B-4 have been prepared in 5 steps from the benzyl protected methyl 6-iodoglycopyranosides of glucose, galactose and mannose, respectively, by using a zinc-mediated domino reaction followed by ring-closing olefin metathesis as the key steps.......Calystegine B-2 B-3, and B-4 have been prepared in 5 steps from the benzyl protected methyl 6-iodoglycopyranosides of glucose, galactose and mannose, respectively, by using a zinc-mediated domino reaction followed by ring-closing olefin metathesis as the key steps....

Identification of pyrolysis products of the new psychoactive substance 2-amino-1-(4-bromo-2,5-dimethoxyphenyl)ethanone hydrochloride (bk-2C-B) and its iodo analogue bk-2C-I.

Science.gov (United States)

Texter, Kelly B; Waymach, Rachel; Kavanagh, Pierce V; O'Brien, John E; Talbot, Brian; Brandt, Simon D; Gardner, Elizabeth A

2018-01-01

2-Amino-1-(4-bromo-2,5-dimethoxyphenyl)ethanone hydrochloride (bk-2C-B) has recently emerged as a new psychoactive substance (NPS). It is most commonly consumed orally, although there are indications that it might also be ingested by inhalation or 'smoking'. Information about the stability of bk-2C-B when exposed to heat is unavailable and the potential for pyrolytic degradation and formation of unknown substances available for inhalation prompted an investigation using a simulated 'meth pipe' scenario. Twelve products following pyrolysis of bk-2C-B were detected and verified by organic synthesis of the corresponding standards. In addition, 2-amino-1-(4-iodo-2,5-dimethoxyphenyl)ethanone hydrochloride (bk-2C-I) was characterized for the first time and subjected to pyrolysis as well. Similar products were formed, which indicated that the replacement of the bromo with the iodo substituent did not affect the pyrolysis pattern under the conditions used. Two additional products were detected in the bk-2C-I pyrolates, namely 1-(2,5-dimethoxyphenyl)-ethanone and 1-iodo-4-ethenyl-5-methoxyphenol. The potential ingestion of pyrolysis products with unknown toxicity adds an element of concern. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Braun, Kimberly

1997-01-01

.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

A study of b anti b production in e+e- collisions at √(s)=130 -207 GeV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdallah, J.; Antilogus, P.; Augustin, J.E.; Baubillier, M.; Berggren, M.; Da Silva, W.; Kapusta, F.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Abreu, P.; Andringa, S.; Anjos, N.; Castro, N.; Espirito Santo, M.C.; Goncalves, P.; Moreno, S.; Onofre, A.; Peralta, L.; Pimenta, M.; Tome, B.; Veloso, F.; Adam, W.; Buschbeck, B.; Leder, G.; Liko, D.; MacNaughton, J.; Mandl, F.; Mitaroff, W.; Strauss, J.; Adzic, P.; Fanourakis, G.; Kokkinias, P.; Loukas, D.; Markou, A.; Mastroyiannopoulos, N.; Nassiakou, M.; Tzamarias, S.; Zupan, M.; Albrecht, T.; Allmendinger, T.; Apel, W.D.; Boer, W. de; Feindt, M.; Haag, C.; Hauler, F.; Hennecke, M.; Jungermann, L.; Kerzel, U.; Moch, M.; Rehn, J.; Sander, C.; Stanitzki, M.; Weiser, C.; Alemany-Fernandez, R.; Ask, S.; Augustinus, A.; Baillon, P.; Battaglia, M.; Camporesi, T.; Carena, F.; Charpentier, P.; Chierici, R.; Chudoba, J.; Chung, S.U.; Collins, P.; Elsing, M.; Foeth, H.; Gavillet, P.; Holt, P.J.; Joram, C.; Kjaer, N.J.; Marin, J.C.; Mariotti, C.; Pape, L.; Parzefall, U.; Piotto, E.; Poireau, V.; Rebecchi, P.; Schwickerath, U.; Spassov, T.; Treille, D.; Van Eldik, J.; Van Vulpen, I.; Wicke, D.; Allport, P.P.; Booth, P.S.L.; Bowcock, T.J.V.; Houlden, M.A.; Jackson, J.N.; King, B.T.; Mc Nulty, R.; Palacios, J.P.; Tobin, M.; Washbrook, A.J.; Amaldi, U.; Bonesini, M.; Calvi, M.; Matteuzzi, C.; Paganoni, M.; Pullia, A.; Tabarelli, T.; Tonazzo, A.; Amapane, N.; De Maria, N.; Migliore, E.; Romero, A.; Amato, S.; Silva, T. da; Paula, L. de; Gandelman, M.; Lopes, J.H.; Marechal, B.; Moraes, D.; Anashkin, E.; Checchia, P.; De Min, A.; Margoni, M.; Mazzucato, F.; Mazzucato, M.; Ronchese, P.; Andreazza, A.; Meroni, C.; Troncon, C.; Vegni, G.; Arnoud, Y.; Berat, C.; Ledroit, F.; Asman, B.; Holmgren, S.O.; Johansson, E.K.; Leinonen, L.; Lipniacka, A.; Moa, T.; Ballestrero, A.; Bambade, P.; Ben-Haim, E.; Bouquet, B.; Cosme, G.; Fulda-Quenzer, F.; Grosdidier, G.; Lepeltier, V.; Richard, F.; Roudeau, P.; Stocchi, A.; Barbier, R.; Jonsson, P.; Katsanevas, S.; Smadja, G.; Verdier, P.; Bardin, D.; Boyko, I.; Kouznetsov, O.; Krumstein, Z.; Olshevski, A.; Pozdniakov, V.; Pukhaeva, N.; Sadovsky, A.; Sisakian, A.; Tkatchev, L.; Tyapkin, I.A.; Tyapkin, P.; Zhuravlov, V.; Zimin, N.I.; Zintchenko, A.; Barker, G.J.; Baroncelli, A.; Di Simone, A.; Graziani, E.; Passeri, A.; Pieri, L.; Becks, K.H.; Behrmann, A.; Buschmann, P.; Drees, J.; Flagmeyer, U.; Hamacher, K.; Liebig, W.; Malek, A.; Mueller, U.; Muenich, K.; Passon, O.; Reinhardt, R.; Siebel, M.; Wahlen, H.; Begalli, M.; Mundim, L.; Benekos, N.; Fokitis, E.; Gazis, E.; Katsoufis, E.; Maltezos, S.; Papadopoulou, T.D.; Benvenuti, A.; Cavallo, F.; Navarria, F.; Paiano, S.; Perrotta, A.; Rovelli, T.; Valenti, G.; Bertrand, D.; D'Hondt, J.; Clercq, C. de; Lemonne, J.; Wickens, J.; Besancon, M.; Besson, N.; Boonekamp, M.; Jarry, P.; Lutz, P.; Nicolaidou, R.; Ouraou, A.; Pierre, F.; Ruhlmann-Kleider, V.; Turluer, M.L.; Vilanova, D.; Bloch, D.; Winter, M.; Blom, M.; Kluit, P.; Montenegro, J.; Mulders, M.; Reid, D.; Timmermans, J.; Dam, P. van; Bluj, M.; Doroba, K.; Grzelak, K.; Hoffman, J.; Nawrocki, K.; Sosnowski, R.; Szczekowski, M.; Szeptycka, M.; Trochimczuk, M.; Zalewski, P.; Borisov, G.; Sopczak, A.; Botner, O.; Brenner, R.; Ekelof, T.; Ellert, M.; Hallgren, A.; Tegenfeldt, F.; Bracko, M.; Kernel, G.; Brodet, E.; Hamilton, K.; Jeans, D.; Lyons, L.; Myatt, G.; Radojicic, D.; Renton, P.; Wilkinson, G.; Bruckman, P.; Cieslik, K.; Kucharczyk, M.; Lesiak, T.; Palka, H.; Polok, G.; Witek, M.; Zalewska, A.; Brunet, J.M.; Tristram, G.; Canale, V.; Di Ciaccio, L.; Verzi, V.

2009-01-01

Measurements are presented of R b , the ratio of the b anti b cross-section to the q anti q cross-section in e + e - collisions, and the forward-backward asymmetry A FB b at twelve energy points in the range √(s)=130-07 GeV. These results are found to be consistent with the Standard Model expectations. The measurements are used to set limits on new physics scenarios involving contact interactions. (orig.) 2

Combating the effects of climatic change on forests by mitigation strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dieter Matthias

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Forests occur across diverse biomes, each of which shows a specific composition of plant communities associated with the particular climate regimes. Predicted future climate change will have impacts on the vulnerability and productivity of forests; in some regions higher temperatures will extend the growing season and thus improve forest productivity, while changed annual precipitation patterns may show disadvantageous effects in areas, where water availability is restricted. While adaptation of forests to predicted future climate scenarios has been intensively studied, less attention was paid to mitigation strategies such as the introduction of tree species well adapted to changing environmental conditions. Results We simulated the development of managed forest ecosystems in Germany for the time period between 2000 and 2100 under different forest management regimes and climate change scenarios. The management regimes reflect different rotation periods, harvesting intensities and species selection for reforestations. The climate change scenarios were taken from the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES. We used the scenarios A1B (rapid and successful economic development and B1 (high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development. Our results indicate that the effects of different climate change scenarios on the future productivity and species composition of German forests are minor compared to the effects of forest management. Conclusions The inherent natural adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions is limited by the long life time of trees. Planting of adapted species and forest management will reduce the impact of predicted future climate change on forests.

Spatial-temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2 °C warming scenarios across China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhai, Ran; Tao, Fulu; Xu, Zhihui

2018-06-01

The Paris Agreement set a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C; it is therefore important to understand the impacts of climate change under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios for climate adaptation and mitigation. Here, climate scenarios from four global circulation models (GCMs) for the baseline (2006-2015), 1.5, and 2.0 °C warming scenarios (2106-2115) were used to drive the validated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to investigate the impacts of global warming on runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention (TEWR) across China at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. This study applied ensemble projections from multiple GCMs to provide more comprehensive and robust results. The trends in annual mean temperature, precipitation, runoff, and TEWR were analyzed at the grid and basin scale. Results showed that median change in runoff ranged from 3.61 to 13.86 %, 4.20 to 17.89 %, and median change in TEWR ranged from -0.45 to 6.71 and -3.48 to 4.40 % in the 10 main basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, respectively, across all four GCMs. The interannual variability of runoff increased notably in areas where it was projected to increase, and the interannual variability increased notably from the 1.5 to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. In contrast, TEWR would remain relatively stable, the median change in standard deviation (SD) of TEWR ranged from -10 to 10 % in about 90 % grids under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, across all four GCMs. Both low and high runoff would increase under the two warming scenarios in most areas across China, with high runoff increasing more. The risks of low and high runoff events would be higher under the 2.0 than under the 1.5 °C warming scenario in terms of both extent and intensity. Runoff was significantly positively correlated to precipitation, while increase in maximum

Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Unger, Nadine; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ron L.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Streets, David G.

2007-03-26

We investigate the climate forcing from and response to projected changes in short-lived species and methane under the A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model. We present a meta-analysis of new simulations of the full evolution of gas and aerosol species and other existing experiments with variations of the same model. The comparison highlights the importance of several physical processes in determining radiative forcing, especially the effect of climate change on stratosphere-troposphere exchange, heterogeneous sulfate-nitrate-dust chemistry, and changes in methane oxidation and natural emissions. However, the impact of these fairly uncertain physical effects is substantially less than the difference between alternative emission scenarios for all short-lived species. The net global mean annual average direct radiative forcing from the short-lived species is .02 W/m{sup 2} or less in our projections, as substantial positive ozone forcing is largely offset by negative aerosol direct forcing. Since aerosol reductions also lead to a reduced indirect effect, the global mean surface temperature warms by {approx}0.07 C by 2030 and {approx}0.13 C by 2050, adding 19% and 17%, respectively, to the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases. Regional direct forcings are large, up to 3.8 W/m{sup 2}. The ensemble-mean climate response shows little regional correlation with the spatial pattern of the forcing, however, suggesting that oceanic and atmospheric mixing generally overwhelms the effect of even large localized forcings. Exceptions are the polar regions, where ozone and aerosols may induce substantial seasonal climate changes.

B2B Integration in Global Supply Chains

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schubert, Petra; Legner, Christine

2011-01-01

The competitiveness of businesses is increasingly dependent on their electronic networks with customers, suppliers, and partners. While the strategic and operational impact of external integration and IOS adoption has been extensively studied, much less attention has been paid to the organizational...... and technical design of electronic relationships. The objective of our longitudinal research project is the development of a framework for understanding and explaining B2B integration. Drawing on existing literature and empirical cases we present a reference model (a classification scheme for B2B Integration...

Role of nuclear energy in environment, economy, and energy issues of the 21st century. Growing energy demand in Asia and role of nuclear

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tashimo, Masanori; Matsui, Kazuaki

2008-01-01

The economic growth of recent Asia is rapid, and the GDP and the energy consumption growth rate are about 8-10% in China and India. The energy consumption forecast of Asia in this century was estimated based on the GDP growth rate by Goldman Sachs. As a result, about twice in India and Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and about 1.5 times in China of SRES B (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) are forecasted. The simulation was done by Grape Code to analyze the impact of energy increase in Asia. As for the nuclear plant in Asia, it is expected 1500 GWe in 2050 and 2000 GWe in 2100, in the case of the environmental constrain. To achieve this nuclear utilization, there are two important aspects, technically and institutionally. (author)

Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

Science.gov (United States)

Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene

This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and present a good, coherent, and design-oriented story without methodical support. The paper therefore contributes with guidelines that delineate a) what a design-oriented persona-scenario should consist of (product) and b) how to write it (procedure) in order to generate and validate as many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas as possible (purpose). The purpose of the guidelines is to facilitate the construction of persona-scenarios as good, coherent stories, which make sense to the storytellers and to the audience - and which therefore generate many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas.

Experiences and Future Expectations towards Online Courses--An Empirical Study of the B2C-and B2B-Segments

Science.gov (United States)

Krämer, Andreas; Böhrs, Sandra

2016-01-01

This article explores the future potential for the development of online courses. The findings are based on an empirical study with 3 sample groups: (1) B2C segment in Germany, (2) B2C segment in the United States, and (3) B2B segment (international). In the first step the status quo of the use of e-learning in general and online courses in…

Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

2016-02-01

This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

Comparison of monoclonal antibodies and rabbit antisera in B2 microglobulin (B2m) radioimmunoassay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vincent, C.

1981-01-01

Human B2m is a globular protein devoid of carbohydrates and is composed of 100 aminoacids with an intrachain disulfide bridge in position 25-81. Its aminoacid sequence and three dimensional structure shows a partial homology with the constant domains of immunoglobulins. B2m has been detected at the surface of nearly all cell types with the exception of erythrocytes and trophoblastic cells and also in all biological fluids. On the cell surface B2m is found non-covalently associated with HLA molecules, and in serum and urine only a small part of the B2m is associated with HLA heavy chain, the remaining is found as free B2m. The aim of this paper is firstly to try to demonstrate the presence of two types of epitopes one of them specific of free B2m and secondly to compare monoclonal antibodies with rabbit antisera for B2m radioimmunoassay. (Auth.)

Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Meinshausen

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a, we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3. If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4 to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO₂ emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC, when prescribing CO₂ concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC

Projected Changes in Kppen Climate Types in the 21st Century over China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SHI Ying; GAO Xue-Jie; WU Jia

2012-01-01

Future changes in the climate regimes over China as measured by the Kppen climate classification are reported in this paper. The analysis is based on a high-resolution climate change simulation conducted by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3) driven by the global model of Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/National Institute for Environment Studies (NIES)/Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) MIROC3.2_hires (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Validation of the model performances is presented first. The results show that RegCM3 reproduces the present-day distribution of the Kppen climate types well. Significant changes of the types are found in the future over China, following the simulated warming and precipitation changes. In southern China, the change is characterized by the replacement of subtropical humid (Cr) by subtropical winter-dry (Cw). A pronounced decrease of the cold climate types is found over China, e.g., tundra (Ft) over the Tibetan Plateau and sub-arctic continental (Ec) over northeast China. The changes are usually greater in the end compared with the middle of the 21st century.

The role of TiB2 in strengthening TiB2 reinforced aluminium casting composites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Z; Kang, H; Zhao, Y; Zheng, Y; Wang, T

2016-01-01

With an aim of developing high quality in situ TiB 2 reinforced aluminium foundry alloy based composites, the conventional direct synthesis method was modified into a two-step route. In step one we optimized the halide salt route to fabricate in situ TiB 2 particulate reinforced aluminium matrix composites and in step two we investigated the effects of the Al-5wt.% TiB 2 composite, as a “master composite”, on strengthening the practical foundry alloys. The in situ formed TiB 2 particles play two roles while strengthening the composites: (1) The grain refinement effect that improves the quality of the alloy matrix; and (2) The interactions between the hard particulates and the matrix add extra increment to the material strength. In different alloy systems, TiB 2 may play distinct roles in these two aspects (figure 1). Further analysis of the strengthening mechanisms shows that particle agglomeration behaviour during solidification is responsible for the latter one. The present work details the role of TiB 2 in strengthening TiB 2 reinforced aluminium casting composites. (paper)

The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

1998-04-01

The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

Deforestation in Amazonia impacts riverine carbon dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Langerwisch, Fanny; Walz, Ariane; Rammig, Anja; Tietjen, Britta; Thonicke, Kirsten; Cramer, Wolfgang

2016-12-01

Fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon within the Amazon basin are considerably controlled by annual flooding, which triggers the export of terrigenous organic material to the river and ultimately to the Atlantic Ocean. The amount of carbon imported to the river and the further conversion, transport and export of it depend on temperature, atmospheric CO2, terrestrial productivity and carbon storage, as well as discharge. Both terrestrial productivity and discharge are influenced by climate and land use change. The coupled LPJmL and RivCM model system (Langerwisch et al., 2016) has been applied to assess the combined impacts of climate and land use change on the Amazon riverine carbon dynamics. Vegetation dynamics (in LPJmL) as well as export and conversion of terrigenous carbon to and within the river (RivCM) are included. The model system has been applied for the years 1901 to 2099 under two deforestation scenarios and with climate forcing of three SRES emission scenarios, each for five climate models. We find that high deforestation (business-as-usual scenario) will strongly decrease (locally by up to 90 %) riverine particulate and dissolved organic carbon amount until the end of the current century. At the same time, increase in discharge leaves net carbon transport during the first decades of the century roughly unchanged only if a sufficient area is still forested. After 2050 the amount of transported carbon will decrease drastically. In contrast to that, increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration determine the amount of riverine inorganic carbon stored in the Amazon basin. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase riverine inorganic carbon amount by up to 20 % (SRES A2). The changes in riverine carbon fluxes have direct effects on carbon export, either to the atmosphere via outgassing or to the Atlantic Ocean via discharge. The outgassed carbon will increase slightly in the Amazon basin, but can be regionally reduced by up to 60 % due to

Forward-backward rapidity correlations in a two-step scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brogueira, P.; Dias de Deus, J.

2007-01-01

We argue that two-step models, like String and Glasma models, with creation first of sources extended in rapidity that after locally decay into particles, lead to long range forward-backward correlations due to fluctuations in the number or the colour of the sources, and to a similar expression for the F-B correlation parameter b. In the simplest String percolation scenario, b increases with centrality or the number of participating nucleons. However, asymptotically it decreases with energy. This is different from the Glasma model where b increases with both, centrality and energy

Construction of the irreducibles of B(2, 2)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melas, Evangelos

2006-01-01

The ordinary Bondi-Metzner-Sachs (BMS) group B is the common asymptotic symmetry group of all radiating, asymptotically flat, Lorentzian spacetimes. As such, B is the best candidate for the universal symmetry group of general relativity. However, in studying quantum gravity, spacetimes with signatures other than the usual Lorentzian one and complex spacetimes are frequently considered. Generalizations of B appropriate to these other signatures have been defined earlier. In particular, the generalization B(2, 2) appropriate to the ultrahyperbolic signature (+, +, -, -) has been described in detail, and the study of its irreducible unitary representations (IRs) of B(2, 2) has been initiated. The infinite little groups have been given explicitly, but the finite little groups have only been partially described. This study is completed by describing in detail the finite little groups and by giving all the necessary information in order to construct the IRs of B(2, 2) in all cases

ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

2014-01-01

This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

Test of the predictive capability of B2-Eirene on ASDEX-Upgrade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, R.; Coster, D.P.; Kallenbach, A.

2001-01-01

Based on validated B2-Eirene results for the previous divertor of ASDEX Upgrade, the modelling predictions for the new divertor are compared with the actual experimental results. For the same experimental scenarios (L-mode) in both divertors the predictions are robust and in agreement with experimental results. For a full quantitative agreement in H-mode both the carbon chemical sputtering yield and the radial transport had to be adjusted. The new divertor has a reduced power load due to larger radiation losses. These are caused by larger hydrogen losses, enhancement of carbon radiation due to radial transport and convective energy transport into the radiation zone, and larger radial energy transport in the divertor. (author)

Managing Innovation Through Social Media in B2B SME-Context

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lutz, Salla; Madsen, Svend Ole; Brink, Tove

2015-01-01

This paper shed light on how social media application can enhance innovation management in SME B2B context. Our study employs a qualitative case study approach with four B2B SMEs for in-depth research in the period from October 2013 to October 2014. The B2B SME managers aim for open business mode...

Electronic and elastic properties of new semiconducting oP12-type RuB2 and OsB2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hao Xianfeng; Xu Yuanhui; Gao Faming

2011-01-01

Using first-principles total energy calculations we investigate the structural, elastic and electronic properties of new hypothetical oP 12 -type phase RuB 2 and OsB 2 . The calculations indicate that the oP 12 -type phase RuB 2 and OsB 2 are thermodynamically and mechanically stable. Remarkably, the new phases RuB 2 and OsB 2 are predicted to be semiconductors, and the appearance of band gaps is ascribed to the enhanced B-B covalent hybridization. Compared to metallic oP 6 -type RuB 2 and OsB 2 phases, the new phases possess similar mechanical properties and hardness. The combination of the probability of tunable electronic properties, strong stiffness and high hardness make RuB 2 and OsB 2 attractive and interesting for advanced applications.

Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene

2010-01-01

The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

Observation of B+ -> J/psi 3 pi(+)2 pi(-) and B+ -> psi (2S)pi(+)pi(+)pi(-) decays

OpenAIRE

Aaij, R.; Adeva, B.; Adinolfi, M.; Ajaltouni, Z.; Akar, S.; Albrecht, J.; Alessio, F.; Alexander, M. H.; Ali, S.; Alkhazov, G.; Cartelle, P. Alvarez; Alves, A. A. Jr; Amato, S.; Amerio, S.; Amhis, Y.

2017-01-01

The decays B+-> J/psi 3 pi(+)2 pi(-) and B+ -> psi(2S)pi(+)pi(+)pi(-) are observed for the first time using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0 fb(-1), collected by the LHCb experiment in proton- proton collisions at the centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV. The branching fractions relative to that of B+ -> psi(2S)K+ are measured to be B(B+-> J/psi 3 pi(+)2 pi(-))/B(B+ -> psi (2S)K+) = (1.88 +/- 0.17 +/- 0.09)x10(-2). B(B+ -> psi(2S)pi(+)pi(+)pi(-))/B(B+ -> psi (2...

Climate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sailor, David J.; Smith, Michael; Hart, Melissa

2008-01-01

Using statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs), we have investigated scenarios of climate change impacts on wind power generation potential in a five-state region within the Northwest United States (Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming). All GCM simulations were extracted from the standardized set of runs created for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Analysis of model runs for the 20th century (20c3m) simulations revealed that the direct output of wind statistics from these models is of relatively poor quality compared with observations at airport weather stations within each state. When the GCM output was statistically downscaled, the resulting estimates of current climate wind statistics are substantially better. Furthermore, in looking at the GCM wind statistics for two IPCC future climate scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES A1B and A2), there was significant disagreement in the direct model output from the four GCMs. When statistical downscaling was applied to the future climate simulations, a more coherent story unfolded related to the likely impact of climate change on the region's wind power resource. Specifically, the results suggest that summertime wind speeds in the Northwest may decrease by 5-10%, while wintertime wind speeds may decrease by relatively little, or possibly increase slightly. When these wind statistics are projected to typical turbine hub heights and nominal wind turbine power curves are applied, the impact of the climate change scenarios on wind power may be as high as a 40% reduction in summertime generation potential. (author)

Systems Li2B4O7 (Na2B4O7, K2B4O7)-N2H3H4OH-H2O at 25 deg C

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skvortsov, V.G.; Sadetdinov, Sh.V.; Akimov, V.M.; Mitrasov, Yu.N.; Petrova, O.V.; Klopov, Yu.N.

1994-01-01

Phase equilibriums in the Li 2 B 4 O 7 (Na 2 B 4 O 7 , K 2 B 4 O 7 )-N 2 H 3 H 4 OH-H 2 O systems were investigated by methods of isothermal solubility, refractometry and PH-metry at 25 deg C for the first time. Lithium and sodium tetraborates was established to form phases of changed composition mM 2 B 4 O 7 ·nN 2 H 3 C 2 H 4 OH·XH 2 O, where M=Li, Na with hydrazine ethanol. K 2 B 4 O 7 ·4H 2 O precipitates in solid phase in the case of potassium salt. Formation of isomorphous mixtures was supported by X-ray diffraction and IR spectroscopy methods

Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

2012-01-01

In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

GRIN2B encephalopathy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Platzer, Konrad; Yuan, Hongjie; Schuetz, Hannah

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: We aimed for a comprehensive delineation of genetic, functional and phenotypic aspects of GRIN2B encephalopathy and explored potential prospects of personalised medicine. METHODS: Data of 48 individuals with de novo GRIN2B variants were collected from several diagnostic and research c...

Simulated effect of calcification feedback on atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Han; Cao, Long

2016-01-01

Ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 reduces pH and saturation state of calcium carbonate materials of seawater, which could reduce the calcification rate of some marine organisms, triggering a negative feedback on the growth of atmospheric CO2. We quantify the effect of this CO2-calcification feedback by conducting a series of Earth system model simulations that incorporate different parameterization schemes describing the dependence of calcification rate on saturation state of CaCO3. In a scenario with SRES A2 CO2 emission until 2100 and zero emission afterwards, by year 3500, in the simulation without CO2-calcification feedback, model projects an accumulated ocean CO2 uptake of 1462 PgC, atmospheric CO2 of 612 ppm, and surface pH of 7.9. Inclusion of CO2-calcification feedback increases ocean CO2 uptake by 9 to 285 PgC, reduces atmospheric CO2 by 4 to 70 ppm, and mitigates the reduction in surface pH by 0.003 to 0.06, depending on the form of parameterization scheme used. It is also found that the effect of CO2-calcification feedback on ocean carbon uptake is comparable and could be much larger than the effect from CO2-induced warming. Our results highlight the potentially important role CO2-calcification feedback plays in ocean carbon cycle and projections of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. PMID:26838480

Electronic and elastic properties of new semiconducting oP(12)-type RuB(2) and OsB(2).

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Xianfeng; Xu, Yuanhui; Gao, Faming

2011-03-30

Using first-principles total energy calculations we investigate the structural, elastic and electronic properties of new hypothetical oP(12)-type phase RuB(2) and OsB(2). The calculations indicate that the oP(12)-type phase RuB(2) and OsB(2) are thermodynamically and mechanically stable. Remarkably, the new phases RuB(2) and OsB(2) are predicted to be semiconductors, and the appearance of band gaps is ascribed to the enhanced B-B covalent hybridization. Compared to metallic oP(6)-type RuB(2) and OsB(2) phases, the new phases possess similar mechanical properties and hardness. The combination of the probability of tunable electronic properties, strong stiffness and high hardness make RuB(2) and OsB(2) attractive and interesting for advanced applications. © 2011 IOP Publishing Ltd

Scope of Internal Marketing in B2B Companies

OpenAIRE

Nigam, Niharika

2007-01-01

Abstract Previous studies have focused on "internal marketing" from services marketing perspective. There is, therefore, a great dearth of in-depth research on its application to other business types. This research attempts to find the scope of internal marketing in B2B companies. The purpose of this research is to closely examine the elements, their linkage, tools and applications of Internal marketing when applied to B2B settings. Internal marketing, the application of marketing managem...

Spatial–temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2 °C warming scenarios across China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Zhai

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The Paris Agreement set a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C; it is therefore important to understand the impacts of climate change under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios for climate adaptation and mitigation. Here, climate scenarios from four global circulation models (GCMs for the baseline (2006–2015, 1.5, and 2.0 °C warming scenarios (2106–2115 were used to drive the validated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC hydrological model to investigate the impacts of global warming on runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention (TEWR across China at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. This study applied ensemble projections from multiple GCMs to provide more comprehensive and robust results. The trends in annual mean temperature, precipitation, runoff, and TEWR were analyzed at the grid and basin scale. Results showed that median change in runoff ranged from 3.61 to 13.86 %, 4.20 to 17.89 %, and median change in TEWR ranged from −0.45 to 6.71 and −3.48 to 4.40 % in the 10 main basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, respectively, across all four GCMs. The interannual variability of runoff increased notably in areas where it was projected to increase, and the interannual variability increased notably from the 1.5 to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. In contrast, TEWR would remain relatively stable, the median change in standard deviation (SD of TEWR ranged from −10 to 10 % in about 90 % grids under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, across all four GCMs. Both low and high runoff would increase under the two warming scenarios in most areas across China, with high runoff increasing more. The risks of low and high runoff events would be higher under the 2.0 than under the 1.5 °C warming scenario in terms of both extent and intensity. Runoff was significantly positively

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

Li2b2-Façade: Simulation of i2b2 Data Warehouse Server and Client for Interaction with Other Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Majeed, Raphael W; Xu, Tingyan; Stöhr, Mark R; Röhrig, Rainer

2017-01-01

Since its release in 2004, the i2b2 data warehouse software has become a valuable tool for clinical researchers. Physicians can use its browser-based query frontend intuitively without additional training or reading through documentation. While the i2b2 software describes it's API as "REST", it is neither stateless nor does it follow the common guidelines for RESTful APIs. Thus, interfacing other software with i2b2's custom RPC-style XML-API is a very cumbersome process. To overcome these issues, we developed a lightweight software abstraction layer "lightweight i2b2 façade" (li2b2-façade).

Hazards study of environmental protection classified facilities. Scenarios analysis; Etude de dangers des ICPE. Analyse des scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seveque, J.L. [Cour d' Appel d' Amiens, 80 (France)

2006-04-15

This article describes the analysis and study of the possible impacts of accidents occurring at industrial facilities classified with respect to the environment protection. The operators of such facilities have to describe the possible risks and their consequences, the measures taken to prevent them and the level of residual risk. Therefore, it consists in calculating the consequences of all possible aggressions that a facility can undergo. The receptors are of 2 type: the human body (burns, asphyxia, intoxication, shock wave, projectile), and the surrounding equipments (fire, unconfined vapour cloud explosion (UVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), fireball, dispersion of toxic gases). Content: 1 - fire-type scenario: description, modeling of thermal effects, conclusion; 2 - UVCE-type scenario: description, Lannoy method (TNT equivalent), multi-energy method, conclusion; 3 - BLEVE-type scenario: description, modeling of overpressure effects, thermal effects of the fireball; 4 - toxic cloud scenario: modeling of a toxic cloud dispersion, effects and consequences; 5 - conclusions. (J.S.)

Stress scenario generation for solvency and risk management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Marcus Christian; Henriksen, Lars Frederik Brandt; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

2016-01-01

We derive worst-case scenarios in a life insurance model in the case where the interest rate and the various transition intensities are mutually dependent. Examples of this dependence are that (a) surrender intensities and interest rates are high at the same time, (b) mortality intensities of a p...

Cosima B2B - Sales Automation for E-Procurement

OpenAIRE

Kießling, Werner (Prof. Dr.); Fischer, Stefan; Döring, Sven

2006-01-01

E-procurement is one of the fastest growing application areas for e-commerce. Though B2B transaction costs could be reduced recently by establishing XML based standards for electronic product catalogs and data interchange, B2B sales costs are still high due to the amount of human interaction. For the first time we present a fully automated electronic sales agent for e-procurement portals. The key technologies for this breakthrough are based on preferences modeled as strict partial orders, ena...

Epidemiological and Economic Evaluation of Alternative On-Farm Management Scenarios for Ovine Footrot in Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dana Zingg

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Footrot is a multifactorial infectious disease mostly affecting sheep, caused by the bacteria Dichelobacter nodosus. It causes painful feet lesions resulting in animal welfare issues, weight loss, and reduced wool production, which leads to a considerable economic burden in animal production. In Switzerland, the disease is endemic and mandatory coordinated control programs exist only in some parts of the country. This study aimed to compare two nationwide control strategies and a no intervention scenario with the current situation, and to quantify their net economic effect. This was done by sequential application of a maximum entropy model (MEM, epidemiological simulation, and calculation of net economic effect using the net present value method. Building upon data from a questionnaire, the MEM revealed a nationwide footrot prevalence of 40.2%. Regional prevalence values were used as inputs for the epidemiological model. Under the application of the nationwide coordinated control program without (scenario B and with (scenario C improved diagnostics [polymerase chain reaction (PCR test], the Swiss-wide prevalence decreased within 10 years to 14 and 5%, respectively. Contrary, an increase to 48% prevalence was observed when terminating the current control strategies (scenario D. Management costs included labor and material costs. Management benefits included reduction of fattening time and improved animal welfare, which is valued by Swiss consumers and therefore reduces societal costs. The net economic effect of the alternative scenarios B and C was positive, the one of scenario D was negative and over a period of 17 years quantified at CHF 422.3, 538.3, and −172.3 million (1 CHF = 1.040 US$, respectively. This implies that a systematic Swiss-wide management program under the application of the PCR diagnostic test is the most recommendable strategy for a cost-effective control of footrot in Switzerland.

HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

NMR relaxation rates and Knight shifts in MgB2 and AlB2: theory versus experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pavarini, E; Baek, S H; Suh, B J; Borsa, F; Bud'ko, S L; Canfield, P C

2003-01-01

We have performed 11 B NMR measurements in 11 B enriched MgB 2 powder sample in the normal phase. The Knight shift was accurately determined by using the magic angle spinning technique. Results for 11 B and 27 Al Knight shifts (K) and relaxation rates (1/T 1 ) are also reported for AlB 2 . The data show a dramatic decrease of both K and 1/T 1 for 11 B in AlB 2 with respect to MgB 2 . We compare experimental results with ab initio calculated NMR relaxation rates and Knight shifts. The experimental values for 1/T 1 and K are in most cases in good agreement with the theoretical results. We show that the decrease of K and 1/T 1 for 11 B is consistent with a drastic drop of the density of states at the boron site in AlB 2 with respect to MgB 2

Incidência de fumonisina B1, aflatoxinas B1, B2, G1 e G2, ocratoxina A e zearalenona em produtos de milho Occurrence of fumonisin B1, aflatoxins B1, B2, G1, and G2, ochratoxin A and zearalenone in corn products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luciane Mie Kawashima

2006-09-01

Full Text Available Levantamentos de ocorrência de micotoxinas em alimentos foram realizados nas últimas duas décadas nas regiões Sudeste e Sul do Brasil. Levantamentos em alimentos comercializados em outras regiões têm-se limitado a aflatoxinas em amendoim e castanhas do Brasil. O presente trabalho pesquisou a presença de fumonisina B1, aflatoxinas B1, B2, G1 e G2, ocratoxina A e zearalenona em 74 amostras de produtos a base de milho adquiridas no comércio da cidade de Recife, PE, durante o período de 1999 a 2001. Fumonisina B1 foi determinada por cromatografia líquida de alta eficiência com detecção por fluorescência e as demais toxinas foram determinadas por cromatografia em camada delgada. Fumonisina B1 foi encontrada em 94,6% das amostras em concentrações variando de 20 a 8600 µg/kg. Apenas 5 amostras continham aflatoxina B1 e o teor máximo encontrado foi 20 µg/kg. Duas amostras ultrapassaram o limite de 20 µg/kg para a somatória das aflatoxinas B1, B2, G1 e G2 (farinha de milho pré-cozida com 21,5 µg/kg e quirera (xerém com 23,3 µg/kg. As aflatoxinas G1 e G2, ocratoxina A e zearalenona não foram detectadas em nenhuma das amostras. Todas as amostras contaminadas com aflatoxinas também apresentaram fumonisina B1.Research concerning the presence of mycotoxin in food has been conducted in the Southwest and South regions of Brazil over the last two decades. Research in other regions has been limited to aflatoxin in peanuts and Brazil nuts. The aim of this work is to study the presence of fumonisin B1, aflatoxins B1, B2, G1, and G2, ochratoxin A and zearalenone in 74 samples of corn products acquired in shops and food markets in the city of Recife (PE from 1999 to 2001. Fumonisin B1 was determined by high performance liquid chromatography and fluorescence was detected. The other toxins were determined by thin layer chromatography. Fumonisin B1 was found in 94.6% of the samples in levels from 20 to 8600 µg/kg. Only 5 samples contained

Wood energy x 2 - Scenario for the development of wood energy use in Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This study for the Swiss Agency for the Environment, Forests and Landscapes (SAEFL) and the Swiss wood-energy association (Holzenergie Schweiz) presents the results of a scenario-study that examined if, and under what conditions, doubling the use of wood energy in Switzerland could help reach carbon dioxide reduction targets. Two scenarios are presented that are based on high and low rates of growth for the number of automatic wood-chipping or pellets-fired installations. For both scenarios, figures are presented on the amount of wood used and the heating energy generated. The political and financial prerequisites for the scenarios are discussed and other boundary conditions are defined. The report draws conclusions from the study of the two scenarios and summarises the political action deemed necessary

Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

Science.gov (United States)

Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

2010-03-01

A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were

Competency-orientated brand cooperations of power supply companies in the B2B sector; Kompetenzorientierte Markenkooperationen von Energieversorgungsunternehmen im B2B-Kundenbereich

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peuser, M.M.

2008-07-01

On the basis of an extensive empirical study with B2B electricity users, the author of the book under consideration examines brand co-operations of power supply companies with companies not working in the area of energy production. Based on the view of various co-operation alternatives, impact relations and success-determining factors of influence in the area of B2B customers are identified. The term of the authority of an energy brand is discussed. Beside this, profiles of concrete brands of current power supply companies from the view of B2B customers are pointed out, and recommendations for the organization of brand co-operation and the structure of mark authority in practice are shown. This contribution is written for lecturers and students of the management economics with the emphasis of marketing and management as well as high-level personnel in the energy industry, who wants to develop strong mark authority by brand co-operation.

An Evaluation of Dismantling Scenarios Using a Computer Simulation Technology for KRR-1 and 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, S.K.; Park, H.S.; Lee, K.W.; Oh, W.Z.; Park, J.H.

2006-01-01

results, the experts ranking system not only helps decision makers arrive at the best decision, but also provides a clear rationale that it is the best. In the future this scenario evaluation system will be verified by being applied to the ongoing KRR- 2 decommissioning project. We believe that it will also be useful to create a decommissioning plan for other nuclear facility decommissioning projects. (authors)

Attack Trees for Practical Security Assessment: Ranking of Attack Scenarios with ADTool 2.0

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gadyatskaya, Olga; Jhawar, Ravi; Kordy, P.T.; Lounis, Karim; Mauw, Sjouke; Trujillo-Rasua, Rolando

2016-01-01

In this tool demonstration paper we present the ADTool2.0: an open-source software tool for design, manipulation and analysis of attack trees. The tool supports ranking of attack scenarios based on quantitative attributes entered by the user; it is scriptable; and it incorporates attack trees with

Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

1996-01-01

This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

Evolution, development, and communication of branding in B2B markets

OpenAIRE

Seyedghorban, Zahra

2017-01-01

While, branding was traditionally viewed as having limited significance in business-to-business (B2B) markets, existing research not only acknowledges its existence, but emphasises its strategic importance in enhancing organisations’ competitive positions and financial performance. Given the fragmented research on B2B branding, there is a need to first provide a comprehensive review of B2B branding literature as a field of study by conducting a bibliometric investigation (Essay 1). The result...

OSCAAR calculations for the Iput dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS theme 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Homma, Toshimitsu; Matsunaga, Takeshi [Department of Reactor Safety Research, Nuclear Safety Research Center, Tokai Research Establishment, Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

2001-01-01

This report presents the results obtained from the application of the accident consequence assessment code, called OSCAAR, developed in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute to the Iput dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2 organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The Iput Scenario deals with {sup 137}Cs contamination of the catchment basin and agricultural area in the Bryansk Region of Russia, which was heavily contaminated after the Chernobyl accident. This exercise was used to test the chronic exposure pathway models in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainly with respect to each part of the assessment. The OSCAAR chronic exposure pathway models almost successfully reconstructed the whole 10-year time course of {sup 137}Cs activity concentrations in most requested types of agricultural products and natural foodstuffs. Modeling of {sup 137}Cs downward migration in soils is, however, still incomplete and more detail modeling of the changes of cesium bioavailability with time is needed for long term predictions of the contamination of food. (author)

OSCAAR calculations for the Iput dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS theme 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Homma, Toshimitsu; Matsunaga, Takeshi

2001-01-01

This report presents the results obtained from the application of the accident consequence assessment code, called OSCAAR, developed in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute to the Iput dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2 organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The Iput Scenario deals with 137 Cs contamination of the catchment basin and agricultural area in the Bryansk Region of Russia, which was heavily contaminated after the Chernobyl accident. This exercise was used to test the chronic exposure pathway models in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainly with respect to each part of the assessment. The OSCAAR chronic exposure pathway models almost successfully reconstructed the whole 10-year time course of 137 Cs activity concentrations in most requested types of agricultural products and natural foodstuffs. Modeling of 137 Cs downward migration in soils is, however, still incomplete and more detail modeling of the changes of cesium bioavailability with time is needed for long term predictions of the contamination of food. (author)

Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

2015-01-01

This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

Energy scenarios for the nordic region towards 2035

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fidje, Audun

2008-07-01

This report summarizes the assumptions, methodology and main results of the MARKAL analysis of options for a sustainable energy future in the Nordic region. The work is based on the Nordic MARKAL model, which has been modified such that it may be used to analyse a large number of scenarios, typically 500 to 5000. The scenarios are developed by analysis a set of strategies and uncertainties. All these strategies and uncertainties are combined such that we generate in total 1 152 scenarios. The main purpose of generating a large number of scenarios was to facilitate for multi-criteria trade-off analysis. Overall results from this analysis show that large reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions are possible at CO{sub 2} cost below 50 EUR/t CO{sub 2} (author)

Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

2007-02-15

Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

B2B Models for DoD Acquisition

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kamel, Magdi N

2008-01-01

A central vision of B2B e-commerce is that of an electronic marketplace that would bring suppliers together with major buyers of goods and services for the purpose of conducting "frictionless commerce...

Agent-based services for B2B electronic commerce

Science.gov (United States)

Fong, Elizabeth; Ivezic, Nenad; Rhodes, Tom; Peng, Yun

2000-12-01

The potential of agent-based systems has not been realized yet, in part, because of the lack of understanding of how the agent technology supports industrial needs and emerging standards. The area of business-to-business electronic commerce (b2b e-commerce) is one of the most rapidly developing sectors of industry with huge impact on manufacturing practices. In this paper, we investigate the current state of agent technology and the feasibility of applying agent-based computing to b2b e-commerce in the circuit board manufacturing sector. We identify critical tasks and opportunities in the b2b e-commerce area where agent-based services can best be deployed. We describe an implemented agent-based prototype system to facilitate the bidding process for printed circuit board manufacturing and assembly. These activities are taking place within the Internet Commerce for Manufacturing (ICM) project, the NIST- sponsored project working with industry to create an environment where small manufacturers of mechanical and electronic components may participate competitively in virtual enterprises that manufacture printed circuit assemblies.

Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ocean carbon uptake: a multi model linear feedback analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roy, Tilla; Bopp, Laurent; Gehlen, Marion; Cadule, Patricia; Schneider, Birgit; Frolicher, Thomas L.; Segschneider, Joachim; Tjiputra, Jerry; Heinze, Christoph; Joos, Fortunat

2011-01-01

The increase in atmospheric CO 2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air-sea CO 2 uptake, which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO 2 itself and climate change. Here, the future oceanic CO 2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate-carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO 2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully separates the regional future (2010-2100) oceanic CO 2 uptake into a CO 2 -induced component, due to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and a climate-induced component, due to global warming. The models capture the observation based magnitude and distribution of anthropogenic CO 2 uptake. The distributions of the climate-induced component are broadly consistent between the models, with reduced CO 2 uptake in the sub polar Southern Ocean and the equatorial regions, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility; and reduced CO 2 uptake in the mid-latitudes, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility and increased vertical stratification. The magnitude of the climate-induced component is sensitive to local warming in the southern extra-tropics, to large freshwater fluxes in the extra-tropical North Atlantic Ocean, and to small changes in the CO 2 solubility in the equatorial regions. In key anthropogenic CO 2 uptake regions, the climate-induced component offsets the CO 2 - induced component at a constant proportion up until the end of this century. This amounts to approximately 50% in the northern extra-tropics and 25% in the southern extra-tropics and equatorial regions. Consequently, the detection of climate change impacts on anthropogenic CO 2 uptake may be difficult without monitoring additional tracers, such as oxygen. (authors)

Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ocean carbon uptake: a multi model linear feedback analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roy, Tilla; Bopp, Laurent; Gehlen, Marion; Cadule, Patricia

2011-01-01

The increase in atmospheric CO 2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air-sea CO 2 uptake, which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO 2 itself and climate change. Here, the future oceanic CO 2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate-carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO 2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully separates the regional future (2010-2100) oceanic CO 2 uptake into a CO 2 -induced component, due to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and a climate-induced component, due to global warming. The models capture the observation based magnitude and distribution of anthropogenic CO 2 uptake. The distributions of the climate-induced component are broadly consistent between the models, with reduced CO 2 uptake in the sub-polar Southern Ocean and the equatorial regions, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility; and reduced CO 2 uptake in the mid latitudes, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility and increased vertical stratification. The magnitude of the climate-induced component is sensitive to local warming in the southern extra tropics, to large freshwater fluxes in the extra tropical North Atlantic Ocean, and to small changes in the CO 2 solubility in the equatorial regions. In key anthropogenic CO 2 uptake regions, the climate-induced component offsets the CO 2 - induced component at a constant proportion up until the end of this century. This amounts to approximately 50% in the northern extra tropics and 25% in the southern extra tropics and equatorial regions. Consequently, the detection of climate change impacts on anthropogenic CO 2 uptake may be difficult without monitoring additional tracers, such as oxygen. (authors)

Development of RF Tools and Scenarios for ITER on JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noterdaeme, J.M.; Bobkov, V.; Mantsinen, M.; Salmi, A.; Santala, M.; Rantamaki, K.; Ekedahl, A.; Eriksson, L.G.; Lamalle, P.U.; Lyssoivan, A.; Van Eester, A.D.; Mailloux, J.; Monakhov, I.; Sharapov, S.; Mayoral, M.L.; Meo, F.

2005-01-01

The improvement of lower hybrid (LH) coupling with local puffing of D 2 gas, which made operation at ITER relevant distances (10 cm) and with ELMs (edge localized modes) a reality, has been extended to ITER- like plasma shapes with higher triangularity. With ICRF(ion cyclotron resonance frequency), we developed 4 tools such as -1) localized direct electron heating using the He 3 mode conversion scenario for electron heat transport studies, -2) the production of He 4 ions with energies in the MeV range by 3 ω c acceleration of beam injected ions at 120 keV to investigate Alfven instabilities and test α diagnostics, -3) the stabilisation and destabilization of sawteeth and -4) ICRF as as a wall conditioning. Several ITER relevant scenarios were tested. The (He 3 )H minority heating scenario, considered for the non-activated start-up phase of ITER, produces at very low concentration energetic He 3 which heat the electrons indirectly. For n(He 3 )/n e > 2%, the scenario is transformed to a mode conversion scenario where the electrons are heated directly. The (D)H minority heating is not accessible as the concentration of C 6+ dominates the wave propagation and always leads to a mode conversion. The minority heating of T in D is very effective heating for ions and producing neutrons. New results were obtained in several areas of ICRF physics. Experimental evidence confirmed the theoretical prediction that, as the Larmor radius increases beyond 0.5 times the perpendicular wavelength of the wave, the second harmonic acceleration of the ions decreases to very small levels. An exotic fusion reaction (pT) must be taken into account when evaluating neutron rates. The contribution of fast particles accelerated by ICRF to the plasma rotation was clearly identified, but it is only part of an underlying, and not yet understood, co-current plasma rotation. Progress was made in the physics of ELMs while their effect on the ICRF coupling could be minimized with the conjugate

The Influence of Stratospheric Sulphate Aerosol Deployment on the Surface Air Temperature and the Risk of an Abrupt Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roland von Glasow

2010-12-01

Full Text Available We used the ‘Radiative-Convective Model of the Earth-atmosphere system’ (OGIM to investigate the cooling effects induced by sulphur injections into the stratosphere. The ensemble of numerical calculations was based on the A1B scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES. Several geoengineered scenarios were analysed, including the abrupt interruption of these injections in different scenarios and at different dates. We focused on the surface air temperature (SAT anomalies induced by stratospheric sulphate aerosol generated in order to compensate future warming. Results show that continuous deployment of sulphur into the stratosphere could induce a lasting decrease in SAT. Retaining a constant aerosol loading equivalent to 6 TgS would delay the expected global warming by 53 years. Keeping the SAT constant in a context of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs means that the aerosol loading needs to be increased by 1.9% annually. This would offset the effect of increasing GHG under the A1B scenario. A major focus of this study was on the heating rates of SAT that would arise in different scenarios in case of an abrupt cessation of sulphur injections into the stratosphere. Our model results show that heating rates after geoengineering interruption would be 15–28 times higher than in a case without geoengineering, with likely important consequences for life on Earth. Larger initial sulphate loadings induced more intense warming rates when the geoengineering was stopped at the same time. This implies that, if sulphate loading was increased to maintain constant SAT in the light of increasing GHG concentrations, the later the geoengineering interruption was to occur, the higher the heating rates would be. Consequently, geoengineering techniques like this should only be regarded as last-resort measures and require intense further research should they ever become necessary.