Regional issue identification and assessment (RIIA). Volume I. An analysis of the TRENDLONG MID-MID Scenario for Federal Region 10

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilfert, G. L.; Beckwith, M. A.; Cowan, C. E.; Keizur, G. R. [comps.

1979-07-01

Environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic and institutional impacts of future energy development for Federal Region 10, which includes the states of Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, are reported. It is concluded that the reduction in electric generating capacity of 568 MWe specified by the scenario for Alaska will not be realized because of institutional constraints and economic impacts. Development of 1000 MWe of geothermal generating capacity in Region 10 called for by the scenario will not be met by 1990. Besides technical feasibility and economic contraints, procedures in Oregon and Washington for securing leases and siting permits have not been fully developed. The location and impacts associated with construction and operation of oil and gas transshipment facilities such as the proposed pipeline to transport natural gas from fields in northern Alaska to the lower 48 states and the pipeline to transport Alaskan oil through Washington State to refineries in the Midwest are likely to be important issues in the Region. The addition of 7,951 MWe to the currently existing hydroelectric generating capacity of 29,990 MWe by 1990 will intensify competition among multiple uses of limited water resources of the Columbia and Snake River systems which drain Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Irrigation, recreation, transportation, maintenance of wildlife habitats and anadromous fisheries conflict and compete with hydroelectric power generation. Public opposition to further development of nuclear power currently exists and seems to be intensifying in light of recent events. The scenario-specified addition of 4,816 MWe of nuclear generating capacity to the Region's current nuclear capacity of 2,016 MWe may be jeopardized by this opposition; specifically the 1,174 MWe addition to Oregon's nuclear capacity may not be realized.

Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA): an analysis of the mid-range projection, Series C Scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Honea, B.; Hillsman, E.

1979-10-01

The Department of Energy has hypothesized a number of alternate energy futures as part of its energy planning and analysis programs. How a proposed energy future called the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario would affect Federal Region VI (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico) is examined in this report. This scenario assumes a medium supply and a medium demand for fuel through 1990, and it incorporates the fuel-switching provisions of the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act. The report portrays the major regional environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic, and institutional effects that might result from the realization of the Series C Scenario. This discussion should serve as a basis for further assessments, as it identifies some issues of major concern for Region VI that must be addressed in more depth.

An Island Coalescence Scenario for Near-Earth Current Disruption in the Magnetotail

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhi-Wei, Ma; Xing-Qiang, Lu

2009-01-01

A current disruption and dipolarization scenario associated with island coalescences in the near-Earth region is proposed. The thin and elongated current-sheet built up during the growth phase is unstable due to a tearing mode instability that leads to formation of multiple magnetic islands (or magnetic flux ropes in the three dimensional case) in the near-Earth region. The growth rate of the tearing mode should be different in different locations because the rate is in general determined by the external driving force and the local plasma sheet properties. When the rate of the magnetic reconnection in the mid-tail region around 20R E is much larger than that in other locations, the strong bulk earthward flows resulting from the fast reconnection in the mid-tail drive the earthward convection and the coalescence of the magnetic islands. Consequently, the cross-tail current in the near-Earth region is suddenly disrupted and the geometry of the magnetic field changes from tail-like to dipolar-like in the ideal time scale. This proposed scenario is tested by Hall MHD simulation and is compared with the observations. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

Security issues in mobile NFC devices

CERN Document Server

Roland, Michael

2015-01-01

This work provides an assessment of the current state of near field communication (NFC) security, it reports on new attack scenarios, and offers concepts and solutions to overcome any unresolved issues. The work describes application-specific security aspects of NFC based on exemplary use-case scenarios and uses these to focus on the interaction with NFC tags and on card emulation. The current security architectures of NFC-enabled cellular phones are evaluated with regard to the identified security aspects.

Lower hybrid heating and current drive in Iter operation scenarios and outline system design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-11-01

Lower Hybrid Waves (LHW) are considered a valid method of plasma heating and the best demonstrated current drive method. Current drive by LHW possesses the unique feature, as compared to the other methods, to retain a good current drive efficiency in plasma regions of low to medium temperature, or in low-β phases of the discharges. This makes them an essential element to realize the so called 'advanced steady-state Tokamak scenarios' in which a hollow current density profile (deep shear reversal) - established during the ramp-up of the plasma current - offers the prospects of improved confinement and an MHD-stable route to continuous burn. This report contains both modelling and design studies of an LHW system for ITER. It aims primarily at the definition of concepts and parameters for steady-state operation using LHW combined with Fast Waves (FW), or other methods of generating a central seed current for high bootstrap current operation. However simulations addressing the use of LHW for current profile control in the high current pulsed operation scenario are also presented. The outline design of a LHW system which covers the needs for both pulsed and steady-state operation is described in detail. (author). 28 refs., 49 figs

Current issues in perturbative QCD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hinchliffe, I.

1994-12-01

This review talk discusses some issues of active research in perturbative QCD. The following topics are discussed: (1) current value of αs; (2) heavy quark production in hadron collisions; (3) production of Ψ and Υ in p anti p collisions; (4) prompt photon production; (5) small-x and related phenomena; and (6) particle multiplicity in heavy quark jets

Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

2013-09-01

This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

Public health engineering education in India: current scenario, opportunities and challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Hussain, Mohammad Akhtar; Sharma, Kavya; Zodpey, Sanjay

2011-01-01

Public health engineering can play an important and significant role in solving environmental health issues. In order to confront public health challenges emerging out of environmental problems we need adequately trained public health engineers / environmental engineers. Considering the current burden of disease attributable to environmental factors and expansion in scope of applications of public health / environmental engineering science, it is essential to understand the present scenario of teaching, training and capacity building programs in these areas. Against this background the present research was carried out to know the current teaching and training programs in public health engineering and related disciplines in India and to understand the potential opportunities and challenges available. A systematic, predefined approach was used to collect and assemble the data related to various teaching and training programs in public health engineering / environmental engineering in India. Public health engineering / environmental engineering education and training in the country is mainly offered through engineering institutions, as pre-service and in-service training. Pre-service programs include diploma, degree (graduate) and post-graduate courses affiliated to various state technical boards, institutes and universities, whereas in-service training is mainly provided by Government of India recognized engineering and public health training institutes. Though trainees of these programs acquire skills related to engineering sciences, they significantly lack in public health skills. The teaching and training of public health engineering / environmental engineering is limited as a part of public health programs (MD Community Medicine, MPH, DPH) in India. There is need for developing teaching and training of public health engineering or environmental engineering as an interdisciplinary subject. Public health institutes can play an important and significant role in this

[Current status and future of telemonitoring : Scenarios for telemedical care in 2025].

Science.gov (United States)

Zippel-Schultz, Bettina; Schultz, Carsten; Helms, Thomas M

2017-09-01

Telemonitoring is an already realized implementation of digital transformation in the healthcare system. It has the potential to support and secure a sustainable and comprehensive provision of healthcare for a rising number of chronically ill patients, e. g. patients with chronic heart failure. Remote regions in particular can profit from the benefits of telemonitoring; however, so far telemonitoring services have not become truly established in the German healthcare market. Together with experts from politics, science and practice, a scenario analysis "Health Care System 2025 - A Place for Telemonitoring?" was carried out with the aim to examine the future development of the healthcare market and to draw conclusions for providers of telemonitoring services or devices. The scenario analysis contained two workshops and an expert survey and was supported by a scenario software. The current drivers and barriers of the diffusion of telemonitoring were identified and the most relevant factors that influence the future development of the healthcare market were discussed. Based on those influencing factors, three different scenarios were determined: (1) administrating rather than shaping, (2) safely into the future and (3) interconnected and digital world. In the subsequent consequence analysis activities were defined, which describe the necessary infrastructure, software instruments, organizational structures and provision of services and discuss possible activities, which prepare telemonitoring solutions for the future.

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

2009-01-01

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Energy conservation: policy issues and end-use scenarios of savings potential

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1978-09-01

The enclosed work is based on previous research during this fiscal year, contained in Construction of Energy Conservation Scenarios: Interim Report of Work in Progress, June 1978. Five subjects were investigated and summaries were published for each subject in separate publications. This publication summarizes policy issues on the five subjects: tradeoffs of municipal solid-waste-processing alternatives (economics of garbage collection; mechanical versus home separation of recyclables); policy barriers and investment decisions in industry (methodology for identification of potential barriers to industrial energy conservation; process of industrial investment decision making); energy-efficient recreational travel (information system to promote energy-efficient recreational travel; recreational travel; national importance and individual decision making); energy-efficient buildings (causes of litigation against energy-conservation building codes; description of the building process); and end-use energy-conservation data base and scenaerios (residential; commercial; transportation; and industrial).

Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

1999-01-01

This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

Long term safety assessment of geological waste disposal systems: issues on release scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, S.A.; Qureshi, A.A.

1995-01-01

Geological insolation of high level nuclear waste is an attractive waste disposal concept. However, long term safety demonstration of this concept is a major challenge to the operators, regulators and the scientific community. Identification of the factors responsible for the release of radionuclides from geosphere to biosphere,is first step in this regard. Current understanding of the release scenarios indicates that faulting, ground after percolation, seismicity, volcanism and human intrusion are the dominating release factors for most of the candidate rock formations. The major source of uncertainties is the probability values of various release events due to random nature of catastrophic geological events and past poor historical records of the frequencies of such events. There is consensus among the experts that the waste release via human intrusion is the most unpredictable scenario at present state of the knowledge. (author)

Current resistance issues in antimicrobial therapy | Senekal ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Continuing Medical Education. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 28, No 2 (2010) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

Trends in Current Issues, Y2K-2005

Science.gov (United States)

Maltz, Leslie; DeBlois, Peter B.

2005-01-01

EDUCAUSE inaugurated its annual Current Issues Survey in 2000 by asking the primary representatives, typically CIOs, of its member institutions to identify up to three critical IT issues (five starting in 2004) from among 30 to 40 in response to each of four questions. The survey response rate has typically been 35 to 40 percent, with a…

The advanced scenario analysis for performance assessment of geological disposal. Pt. 3. Main document

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohkubo, Hiroo

2004-02-01

In 'H12 Project to Establish Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' an approach that is based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the peer review. However it was also suggested that there are issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. Therefore, in the current financial year, in the first place a scenario development methodology was constructed taking into account the requirements identified last year. Furthermore a practical work-frame was developed to support the activities related to the scenario development. This work-frame was applied to an example scenario to check its applicability and identify issues for further research. Secondly, scenario analysis method with regard to perturbation scenario has been studied. First of all, a survey of perturbation scenario discussed in different countries has been carried out and its assessment has been examined. Especially, in Japan, technical information has been classified in order to assess three scenarios, which are seismic activity, faulting and igneous activity. Then, on the basis of assumed occurrence pattern and influence pattern for each perturbation scenario, variant type that should be considered in this analysis has been identified, and the concept of treatment, modeling data and requirements have been clarified. As a result of these researches, a future direction for advanced scenario analysis on performance assessment has been indicated, as well as associated issues to be discussed have been clarified. (author)

Power quality issues current harmonics

CERN Document Server

Mikkili, Suresh

2015-01-01

Power Quality Issues: Current Harmonics provides solutions for the mitigation of power quality problems related to harmonics. Focusing on active power filters (APFs) due to their excellent harmonic and reactive power compensation in two-wire (single phase), three-wire (three-phase without neutral), and four-wire (three-phase with neutral) AC power networks with nonlinear loads, the text:Introduces the APF technology, describing various APF configurations and offering guidelines for the selection of APFs for specific application considerationsCompares shunt active filter (SHAF) control strategi

Evidence for Anomalous Effects on the Current Evolution in Tokamak Operating Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Casper, T; Jayakumar, R; Allen, S; Holcomb, C; Makowski, M; Pearlstein, L; Berk, H; Greenfield, C; Luce, T; Petty, C; Politzer, P; Wade, M; Murakami, M; Kessel, C

2006-10-03

Alternatives to the usual picture of advanced tokamak (AT) discharges are those that form when anomalous effects alter the plasma current and pressure profiles and those that achieve stationary characteristics through mechanisms so that a measure of desired AT features is maintained without external current-profile control. Regimes exhibiting these characteristics are those where the safety factor (q) evolves to a stationary profile with the on-axis and minimum q {approx} 1 and those with a deeply hollow current channel and high values of q. Operating scenarios with high fusion performance at low current and where the inductively driven current density achieves a stationary configuration with either small or non-existing sawteeth may enhance the neutron fluence per pulse on ITER and future burning plasmas. Hollow current profile discharges exhibit high confinement and a strong ''box-like'' internal transport barrier (ITB). We present results providing evidence for current profile formation and evolution exhibiting features consistent with anomalous effects or with self-organizing mechanisms. Determination of the underlying physical processes leading to these anomalous effects is important for scaling of current experiments for application in future burning plasmas.

Current issues in asteroseismology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bazot, Michael; Monteiro, Mario J P F G; Straka, Christian W [Centro de Astrofisica da Universidade do Porto, Rua das Estrelas, 4150-762 Porto (Portugal)

2008-10-15

In this contribution we briefly review some of the current issues and promises for the future by asteroseismology. We are entering a new phase in this field driven by the wealth of data that has been collected and data that will soon be available for asteroseismology across the HR Diagram. Major difficulties in the descriptions of stellar interiors that arose in the second half of the 20th century may now be in part addressed and solved (this is the expectation{exclamation_point}) by asteroseismology with unprecedented precision. In this contribution we list some of the key open questions in stellar physics, the seismic data we expect to collect in the near future, and some techniques that will provide the tools to connect data and models.

Ukraine: Current Issues and U.S. Policy

Science.gov (United States)

2014-09-04

as Putin’s attempt to test how far he can go in destabilizing Ukraine while avoiding the imposition of additional sanctions by the EU and United...cooperative threat reduction and other nonproliferation activities with Russia. Figure 1. Ukraine Ukraine: Current Issues and U.S. Policy

Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Amin

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Pakistan is currently facing physical and economic water scarcity issues that are further complicated by the rapid increase in its population and by climate change. Many studies have focused on the physical water scarcity using hydrological modeling and the measurement of the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB. However, few studies have concentrated on the importance of the economic water scarcity, that is, the water management issue under the looming impacts of climate change and the population explosion of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to develop a management strategy which helps to achieve water security and sustainability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB with the help of different socio-economic and climate change scenarios using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning modeling. The streamflow data of five sub-basins (Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, and Astore and the entire Upper Indus Basin (UIB were calibrated (2006–2010 and validated (2011–2014 in the WEAP model. The coefficient of determination and Nash Sutcliffe values for the calibration period ranged from 0.81–0.96. The coefficient of determination and the Nash Sutcliffe values for the validation period ranged from 0.85–0.94. After the development of the WEAP model, the analysis of the unmet water demand and percent coverage of the water demand for the period of 2006–2050 was computed. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth, urbanization, and living standards and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results indicated that the future unmet water demand is likely to reach 134 million cubic meters (mcm by the year 2050 and that the external driving factors are putting more pressure on the supply service. This study further explores the importance of proposed dams (likely to be built until 2025 by WAPDA (Water and Power Development

Sexting: Current Research Gaps and Legislative Issues

OpenAIRE

Ngo, Fawn; Jaishankar, K; Agustina, Jose R.

2017-01-01

'Sexting, the portmanteau of Sex and Texting, has become a hot topic of debate between the legislators, researchers, educators, parents and teens' (Jaishankar, 2009, para 1). In spite of the considerable and growing body of literature on sexting, there are significant gaps in the current research. A review of research to date also reveals a dearth of cross-national and cross-cultural research on the topic of sexting. Notably, legal and ethical issues abound with the current method for punishi...

Current health issues in Korean adolescents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chang Ho Hong

2011-10-01

Full Text Available During the adolescent period, they experience rapid physical, emotional, cognitive developments while they establish their lifestyle and habitual routines that strongly influence adult health and life. Recent rapid economic growth in Korea, and the earlier onset of physical, sexual, and psychological maturation of adolescents, has resulted in changes in the health status of adolescents from many years ago. Risk-taking behaviors such as drinking alcohol, smoking, and sexual experiences are critical issues that affect the health of, adolescents. Therefore, it is important for pediatricians to note the that risk-taking behaviors of adolescents in Korea that are caused by individual psychosocial factors. This review article illustrates the current health status of Korean adolescents and provides an overview of risktaking behaviors, to inform pediatricians about some of the key issues.

Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

2012-09-01

End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed

Base case and perturbation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edmunds, T

1998-10-01

This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

2018-04-01

Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

High Field Side Lower Hybrid Current Drive Simulations for Off- axis Current Drive in DIII-D

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wukitch S.J.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Efficient off-axis current drive scalable to reactors is a key enabling technology for developing economical, steady state tokamak. Previous studies have focussed on high field side (HFS launch of lower hybrid current drive (LHCD in double null configurations in reactor grade plasmas and found improved wave penetration and high current drive efficiency with driven current profile peaked near a normalized radius, ρ, of 0.6-0.8, consistent with advanced tokamak scenarios. Further, HFS launch potentially mitigates plasma material interaction and coupling issues. For this work, we sought credible HFS LHCD scenario for DIII-D advanced tokamak discharges through utilizing advanced ray tracing and Fokker Planck simulation tools (GENRAY+CQL3D constrained by experimental considerations. For a model and existing discharge, HFS LHCD scenarios with excellent wave penetration and current drive were identified. The LHCD is peaked off axis, ρ∼0.6-0.8, with FWHM Δρ=0.2 and driven current up to 0.37 MA/MW coupled. For HFS near mid plane launch, wave penetration is excellent and have access to single pass absorption scenarios for variety of plasmas for n||=2.6-3.4. These DIII-D discharge simulations indicate that HFS LHCD has potential to demonstrate efficient off axis current drive and current profile control in DIII-D existing and model discharge.

The United States Navy and Israeli Navy: Background, Current Issues, Scenarios, and Prospects

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-01

second missile flew a sea- skimming profile, and hit the ship’s crane on the stern, near the ship’s helicopter pad.67 Hanit is a stealthy design, with a...IN had a long-standing mission of protecting the sea lines of communication to Israel, as well as preventing terrorists from penetrating its...economic conditions—there is currently a glut of gas on the world market —Israel could become a net exporter of gas.75 The prospect of offshore gas

Internet governance origins, current issues, and future possibilities

CERN Document Server

Balleste, Roy

2015-01-01

Internet Governance: Origins, Current Issues, and Future Possibilities provides an introductory, multidisciplinary account of the forces at work in the evolving concept of internet governance and includes computer history, Internet beginnings, institutions and stakeholders, proposed models of governance, and human rights.

Bringing politics back into water planning scenarios in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez, Sara; Bouleau, Gabrielle; Treyer, Sébastien

2014-10-01

The shift from government to governance in European water policies conveys a pluralist conception of stakeholder participation in planning. This article argues that the current Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to the planning of natural resource use, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Environmental Agency (EEA) is at odds with a pluralistic conception. The DPSIR approach consists in constructing a single socio-environmental model to address a specific problem in water management, while paying no attention to the existence of conflicts surrounding the definition of the issue at hand, the social, political and spatial delimitation of that issue, and the translation of stakes in terms of quantitative variables. Scenarios produced in this process therefore explore a limited range of policies, i.e. those defining the problem in the same way, as illustrated here with the case of the Garonne River in France. This article presents an alternative method, combining knowledge in social science and natural determinisms to build contrasting socio-hydrological scenarios that do not share the same hypotheses regarding their respective key issues.

Book Review: Current Issues in International Human Resource Management and Strategy Research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gretzinger, Susanne

2009-01-01

The article reviews the book "Current Issues in International Human Resource Management and Strategy Research," edited by Marion Festing and Susanne Royer.......The article reviews the book "Current Issues in International Human Resource Management and Strategy Research," edited by Marion Festing and Susanne Royer....

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

Heating and current drive requirements for ideal MHD stability and ITB sustainment in ITER steady state scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Poli, Francesca

2012-10-01

Steady state scenarios envisaged for ITER aim at optimizing the bootstrap current, while maintaining sufficient confinement and stability to provide the necessary fusion yield. Non-inductive scenarios will need to operate with Internal Transport Barriers (ITBs) in order to reach adequate fusion gain at typical currents of 9 MA. However, the large pressure gradients associated with ITBs in regions of weak or negative magnetic shear can be conducive to ideal MHD instabilities in a wide range of βN, reducing the no-wall limit. Scenarios are established as relaxed flattop states with time-dependent transport simulations with TSC [1]. Fully non-inductive configurations with current in the range of 7-10 MA and various heating mixes (NB, EC, IC and LH) have been studied against variations of the pressure profile peaking and of the Greenwald fraction. It is found that stable equilibria have qmin> 2 and moderate ITBs at 2/3 of the minor radius [2]. The ExB flow shear from toroidal plasma rotation is expected to be low in ITER, with a major role in the ITB dynamics being played by magnetic geometry. Combinations of H&CD sources that maintain reverse or weak magnetic shear profiles throughout the discharge and ρ(qmin)>=0.5 are the focus of this work. The ITER EC upper launcher, designed for NTM control, can provide enough current drive off-axis to sustain moderate ITBs at mid-radius and maintain a non-inductive current of 8-9MA and H98>=1.5 with the day one heating mix. LH heating and current drive is effective in modifying the current profile off-axis, facilitating the formation of stronger ITBs in the rampup phase, their sustainment at larger radii and larger bootstrap fraction. The implications for steady state operation and fusion performance are discussed.[4pt] [1] Jardin S.C. et al, J. Comput. Phys. 66 (1986) 481[0pt] [2] Poli F.M. et al, Nucl. Fusion 52 (2012) 063027.

State of Corporate Social Responsibility in India – Current scenario, Approach and Drivers

OpenAIRE

Nagpal, Kshitij

2016-01-01

Purpose – The aim of the study is to examine the state of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)in India. The report attempts to investigate the current scenario of CSR ctivities and examine how corporations in India interpret CSR. The study also seeks to identify the reported driving forces behind implementation of CSR practices by firms in India. Methodology – CSR personnel from 3O companies that are obligated to spend on CSR activities under the Companies Act, 2013 were surveyed. To cr...

Energy scenarios for New Zealand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

1977-10-15

Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

Summary of current issues regarding space flight habitability.

Science.gov (United States)

Novak, J B

2000-09-01

One of the implicit, yet often under-emphasized qualities of human tended spaceflight is the habitability of the spacecraft and mission. This document summarizes some of the points that characterize the current status of this topic. In addition, the summary concludes with goals for future development for this issue.

The Current Scenario of Curvilinear Architecture in Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faridah Aduan

2007-12-01

Full Text Available The Bilbao Effect incorporates itself into numerous iconic buildings and grand design s of international architects such as Frank Gehry, Santiago Calatrava, Norman Foster, Renzo Piano, Phillip Cox and Toyo Ito who exploit curvilinear forms as their architectural language .Throughout the world, major events such as the Olympic Games have catalysed the implementation of curvilinear architecture while in Malaysia, the development of Putrajaya has provided opportunity for iconic forms, expressed in curvilinearity. The paper focuses on the current scenario of curvilinear architecture in Malaysia and its posit ion in the international arena. It strives to answer the question of 'How far have Malaysian architects gone in implementing curvilinear architecture?' This is done by first formulating a 'Taxonomy of Rigid Curvilinear Architectural Forms' based on the works of renowned international architects. The taxonomy constitutes the instrument for gauging the position of Malaysian architects. This is achieved by having the works of local architects mapped on to the taxonomy. The research findings indicate that the international architects have advanced by leaps and bounds ahead of their Malaysian counterparts in implementing curvilinear architecture. Several recommendations are proposed in order to narrow this gap .The paper focuses on column-free, rigid and permanent buildings completed from 1990 onwards .

Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Sayers, Nicola

2011-01-01

Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Current issues and actions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Black, D.G.

1995-06-01

This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the progress that has been made toward achieving full regulatory compliance at the Hanford Site. Ongoing compliance self-assessments, implementation of the Tri-Party Agreement, and public meetings continue to identify environmental compliance issues. These issues are discussed openly with the regulatory agencies and with the public to ensure that all environmental compliance issues are addressed.

Current issues and actions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Black, D.G.

1995-01-01

This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the progress that has been made toward achieving full regulatory compliance at the Hanford Site. Ongoing compliance self-assessments, implementation of the Tri-Party Agreement, and public meetings continue to identify environmental compliance issues. These issues are discussed openly with the regulatory agencies and with the public to ensure that all environmental compliance issues are addressed

Exploring Current Issues through the Hot Topics Poster

Science.gov (United States)

Nisbett, Nancy

2012-01-01

This paper describes a research paper and poster assignment used in an undergraduate leisure and human behavior course. The intent of this learning activity is to increase student knowledge of current issues within the industry as well as to enhance students' professional communication skills. A description of the assignment is shared along with…

Scientific data and climate scenarios. Study report nr 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alex, Bastien; Baillat, Alice; Francois Gemenne; Jean Jouzel

2017-05-01

The objective of this report is to present climate evolutions and their impacts according to two warming scenarios: a 2 degree increase of the average surface temperature by 2100 (i.e. the most optimistic IPCC scenario), and a 5 degree increase by 2100 (the most pessimistic scenario). As far as possible, physical, social and economic, and health impacts are assessed by 2030 and 2050. The authors notice that the differences between both scenarios are hardly discernible by 2030, but more obviously by 2050. After a brief recall on IPCC scenarios, a first part addresses the evolutions of the world climate by considering the atmosphere (temperature increase, modification of precipitation regimes), seas and oceans (temperature, currents and thermal circulation, ocean acidification, seal level rise), extreme climate events (observations and trends, main impacts on populations and infrastructures), and the cryo-sphere (observations and impacts). The second part discusses regional predictions in terms of trends and impacts for metropolitan France and its overseas territories, for Africa, and for the Asia-Pacific region. The last part briefly discusses the possibly necessary evolution of the typology chosen to determine sources of vulnerability and the level of exposure to different risks. Many appendices propose more detailed presentations on specific issues and examples. A summarised version of the report is also provided

Current issues in medical education | Al Shehri | West African ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

West African Journal of Medicine. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 22, No 4 (2003) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

The iTREN-2030 reference scenario until 2030. Deliverable D4

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fiorello, Davide; De Stasio, Claudia; Koehler, Jonathan; Kraft, Markus; Netwon, Sean; Purwanto, Joko; Schade, Burkhard; Schade, Wolfgang; Szimba, Eckhard

2009-07-01

The basic objective of iTREN-2030 is to extend the forecasting and assessment capabilities of the TRANS-TOOLS transport model to the new policy issues arising from the technology, environment and energy fields. This is achieved by couplin the TRANS-TOOLS model with three other models, ASTRA, POLES and TREMOVE covering these new policy issues. The TRANS-TOOLS transport network model has been developed to constitute the reference tool for supporting transport policy in the EU and currently is being developed in several European projects. The scenario set-up to be developed in iTREN-2030 has been modified, so that the projects develops a reference scenario and an integrated scenario. For the reference scenario, the three other modelling tools are harmonised with TRANS-TOOLS and made consistent with each other. This results in a coherent scenario for Europe until 2030 for technology, transport, energy, environment and economic development. The integrated scenario will consider the changing framework conditions until 2030, inparticular the policy pressure coming from climate policy and the increasing scarcity of fossil fuels as well as the impact of the financial and economic crisis. Within the iTREN-2030 project, the overall objective of Work Package 4 (WP4) producing tis deliverable is to develop the reference scenario for the quantitative projections using the four modelling tools involved in the project. The main aims of WP4 are to (a) define a consistent framework for using the different tools in an integrated way; (b) calibrate models with exchanged input to a coherent joint reference; (c) implement external input from WP3 and running models for projections; (d) produce output procedures and templates to facilitate assessment in WP5.

Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Münster, M.; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project

Radiation protection: Some philosophical and ethical issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sia, Santiago; Chhem, Rethy K.; Czarwinski, Renate

2010-01-01

The ethical issue of justification has become an urgent issue in radiology. There has been a shift in emphasis in the discussion from what has been regarded as a rather paternalistic attitude of practitioners to one that stresses the rights of the individual patient. This article comments on this current move on the part of the profession by offering certain relevant philosophical considerations. Using a medical scenario as the context to comment on this shift, it discusses important and fundamental issues, such as the autonomy and the rights of the patient in addition to the question of consent on the patient's part.

Digital libraries philosophies, technical design considerations, and example scenarios

CERN Document Server

Stern, David

1999-01-01

An unparalleled overview of current design considerations for your digital library! Digital Libraries: Philosophies, Technical Design Considerations, and Example Scenarios is a balanced overview of public services, collection development, administration, and systems support, for digital libraries, with advice on adopting the latest technologies that appear on the scene. As a professional in the library and information science field, you will benefit from this special issue that serves as an overview of selected directions, trends, possibilities, limitations, enhancements, design principals, an

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Large fire scenarios in relation to sabotage of nuclear installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contri, P.; Guerpinar, A.; ); Schneider, U.

2005-01-01

The analyses of sabotage scenarios carried out in recent years identified two major damaging mechanisms associated with such scenarios, namely: the mechanical interaction of solid bodies or pressure waves with the installations and the fire-related effects from burning substances. While the former effect may be addressed by available analytical tools developed for accidental scenarios, the latter deserves a new, specific engineering effort. In fact, all nuclear facilities are designed in relation to accidental fires; even so, they need to be assessed in relation to sabotage induced fire scenarios due to the special characteristics of such scenarios, not addressed by the current engineering practice for the design of nuclear installations. Conventional fire hazard analysis is based on the hypothesis of the presence of combustible materials in the buildings and limited number of contemporaneous sources of fire. In addition, conventional fire safety assessment relies upon the presence of mitigation measures and fire related operational procedures. In a sabotage event the validity of all these assumptions need to be checked and if the assumptions cannot be supported, then the analysis should be revised and other alternatives of protection should be developed. Also the implementation of emergency planning should be reviewed to take account of this concern. This paper collects state-of-the-art experience from some Countries, which represents the background information for the development of new IAEA documents in this field. The paper reviews how the current design practice for nuclear installations can cope with large fire scenarios caused by malevolent actions and provides recommendations to designers and operators on how to address these issues in a reasonable framework. (authors)

Current Issues in LPP Research and Their Impact on Society

Science.gov (United States)

Darquennes, Jeroen

2013-01-01

After a very broad description of what language policy and planning is about this paper presents an overview of some of the current preoccupations of researchers focusing on language policy and planning as one of the blooming fields of applied linguistics. The current issues in language policy and planning research that are dealt with include…

Optimization of OH coil recharging scenario of quasi-steady operation in tokamak fusion reactor by lower hybrid wave current drive

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugihara, M.; Fujisawa, N.; Nishio, S.; Iida, H.

1984-01-01

Using simple physical model equations optimum plasma and rf parameters for an OH coil recharging scenario of quasi-steady operation in tokamak fusion reactors by lower hybrid wave current drive are studied. In this operation scenario, the minimization of the recharge time of OH coils or stored energy for it will be essential and can be realized by driving sufficient current without increasing the plasma temperature too much. Low density and broad spectrum are shown to be favorable for the minimization. In the case of FER (Fusion Experimental Reactor under design study in JAERI) baseline parameters, the minimum recharge time is 3-5 s/V s. (orig.)

Physics issues of high bootstrap current tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozeki, T.; Azumi, M.; Ishii, Y.

1997-01-01

Physics issues of a tokamak plasma with a hollow current profile produced by a large bootstrap current are discussed based on experiments in JT-60U. An internal transport barrier for both ions and electrons was obtained just inside the radius of zero magnetic shear in JT-60U. Analysis of the toroidal ITG microinstability by toroidal particle simulation shows that weak and negative shear reduces the toroidal coupling and suppresses the ITG mode. A hard beta limit was observed in JT-60U negative shear experiments. Ideal MHD mode analysis shows that the n = 1 pressure-driven kink mode is a plausible candidate. One of the methods to improve the beta limit against the kink mode is to widen the negative shear region, which can induce a broader pressure profile resulting in a higher beta limit. The TAE mode for the hollow current profile is less unstable than that for the monotonic current profile. The reason is that the continuum gaps near the zero shear region are not aligned when the radius of q min is close to the region of high ∇n e . Finally, a method for stable start-up for a plasma with a hollow current profile is describe, and stable sustainment of a steady-state plasma with high bootstrap current is discussed. (Author)

The design of a new JET divertor for high triangularity and high current scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chappuis, P. E-mail: philippe.chappuis@cea.fr; Damiani, C.; Guerin, C.; Hurd, F.; Loarte, A.; Lomas, P.; Lorenz, A.; Pamela, J.; Peacock, A.; Portafaix, C.; Rapp, J.; Riccardo, V.; Rimini, F.; Saibene, G.; Salavy, J.F.; Sauce, Y.; Sartori, R.; Solano, E.; Thomas, E.; Thomas, P.; Tsitrone, E.; Valeta, M.P

2003-09-01

A new divertor (MKII-HP) has been designed to be implemented in JET as part of a possible enhancement programme of the JET facility (JET EP). The aim is to handle up to 40 MW of injected power for 10 s with plasma triangularities up to 0.5 while keeping enough flexibility for other scenarios. The divertor is shaped to optimise the wetting fraction without exposing sharp edges or metallic parts and the general design allows for high halo currents.

Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

1997-11-01

The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

2011-01-01

A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

Syria and Iran: what next? Three potential scenarios; Syrie, Iran: et maintenant? Trois scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tertrais, Bruno [Fondation pour la recherche strategique, 4 bis rue des Patures 75016 Paris (France)

2013-10-15

Now that the United Nations resolution has been voted, the most complicated task begins: ensuring that Syria entirely and definitively gets rid of its chemical arsenal, which unfortunately has every chance of enduring. In this respect three scenarios are possible, each of which would have different repercussions for the region, notably regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, which is now being considered in a new light following Hassan Rohani's charm offensive. Yet, these consequences could also have a profound and lasting effect on the relationship between the United States and its allies. In the first scenario the agreement with Syria will be applied in a satisfactory manner, and could serve as a positive example to Iran, which might be more inclined to signing a nuclear deal. To date, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Guide, has been wary of the ongoing negotiations, considering that it is impossible to trust the Western States whose sole objective is the downfall of the Iranian regime. Russia, buoyed by its new role in the region, would contribute in a more constructive manner to the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue... Care must be taken, however, as Iran could just as well conclude as a result of the events of the summer of 2013, particularly from U.S. procrastination, that Western States are not willing to use force in the Middle East, and thus on the contrary draw out the negotiations without fearing the possibility of a U.S. strike. According to the second scenario, Syria will not implement the agreement, the crisis will be renewed, and will end with a Western strike, most probably without a U.N. mandate. This scenario would boost the confidence of U.S. allies in the region, who have a tendency to doubt the United States' determination to defend them. This could be seen as a warning to Iran, but the lessons that Iran would take from this scenario would undoubtedly depend on the balance of power in Tehran at the time: the moderates would push for a deal to avoid

Energy Efficiency Road Mapping in Three Future Scenarios for Lao PDR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hajime Sasaki

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Climate change, pollution, and energy insecurity are among the greatest problems of our time. These problems are no longer issues in particular countries but international issues. Several framework conventions on these issues are now in place throughout the world, and developing countries are no exception. Energy efficiency is one of the important issues for developing countries. Lao PDR is one such country. This paper proposes a technology roadmap and policy recommendations for Lao PDR with consideration given to a wide range of economic and social impacts of prospective technologies. For the implementation of technology assessment in the formulation of an energy efficiency roadmap, we first elaborate the social and economic conditions of Lao PDR through preliminary research and field research, and then design three scenarios for a future Lao PDR. These three scenarios are as follows: 1. The "Poverty Reduction" scenario is for electrification rate improvement; 2. The "Industrial Creation" scenario is for stable domestic energy supply; and 3. The "GMS Integration" scenario is for the acquisition of foreign exchange by energy export.

Nervous systems and scenarios for the invertebrate-to-vertebrate transition.

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, Nicholas D

2016-01-05

Older evolutionary scenarios for the origin of vertebrates often gave nervous systems top billing in accordance with the notion that a big-brained Homo sapiens crowned a tree of life shaped mainly by progressive evolution. Now, however, tree thinking positions all extant organisms equidistant from the tree's root, and molecular phylogenies indicate that regressive evolution is more common than previously suspected. Even so, contemporary theories of vertebrate origin still focus on the nervous system because of its functional importance, its richness in characters for comparative biology, and its central position in the two currently prominent scenarios for the invertebrate-to-vertebrate transition, which grew out of the markedly neurocentric annelid and enteropneust theories of the nineteenth century. Both these scenarios compare phyla with diverse overall body plans. This diversity, exacerbated by the scarcity of relevant fossil data, makes it challenging to establish plausible homologies between component parts (e.g. nervous system regions). In addition, our current understanding of the relation between genotype and phenotype is too preliminary to permit us to convert gene network data into structural features in any simple way. These issues are discussed here with special reference to the evolution of nervous systems during proposed transitions from invertebrates to vertebrates. © 2015 The Author(s).

Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Münster, Marie; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

2013-01-01

of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future......Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects......, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types...

Control Issues in Single-Stage Photovoltaic Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

A. Mastromauro, Rosa; Liserre, Marco; Dell’Aquila, Antonio

2012-01-01

Photovoltaic Systems (PVS) can be easily integrated in residential buildings hence they will be the main responsible of making low-voltage grid power flow bidirectional. Control issues on both the PV side and on the grid side have received much attention from manufacturers, competing for efficiency...... and low distortion and academia proposing new ideas soon become state-of-the-art. This paper aims at reviewing part of these topics (MPPT, current and voltage control) leaving to a future paper to complete the scenario. Implementation issues on Digital Signal Processor (DSP), the mandatory choice...

Scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

2015-01-01

We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

2014-03-01

In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories

Keratoprosthesis: Current global scenario and a broad Indian perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Geetha; Srinivasan, Bhaskar; Agarwal, Shweta; Talele, Deepti; Rishi, Ekta; Rishi, Pukhraj; Krishnamurthy, Sripriya; Vijaya, Lingam; Subramanian, Nirmala; Somasundaram, Shanmugasundaram

2018-01-01

Keratoprosthesis (Kpro) forms the last resort for bilateral end-stage corneal blindness. The Boston Type 1 and 2 Kpros, the modified osteo-odonto Kpro and the osteo-Kpro are the more frequently and commonly performed Kpros, and this review attempts to compile the current data available on these Kpros worldwide from large single-center studies and compare the indications and outcomes with Kpros in the Indian scenario. Although the indications have significantly expanded over the years and the complications have reduced with modifications in design and postoperative regimen, these are procedures that require an exclusive setup, and a commitment toward long-term follow-up and post-Kpro care. The last decade has seen a surge in the number of Kpro procedures performed worldwide as well as in India. There is a growing need in our country among ophthalmologists to be aware of the indications for Kpro to facilitate appropriate referral as well as of the procedure to enable basic evaluation during follow-ups in case the need arises, and among corneal specialists interested to pursue the field of Kpros in understanding the nuances of these surgeries and to make a judicious decision regarding patient and Kpro selection and more importantly deferral. PMID:29676302

Keratoprosthesis: Current global scenario and a broad Indian perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geetha Iyer

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Keratoprosthesis (Kpro forms the last resort for bilateral end-stage corneal blindness. The Boston Type 1 and 2 Kpros, the modified osteo-odonto Kpro and the osteo-Kpro are the more frequently and commonly performed Kpros, and this review attempts to compile the current data available on these Kpros worldwide from large single-center studies and compare the indications and outcomes with Kpros in the Indian scenario. Although the indications have significantly expanded over the years and the complications have reduced with modifications in design and postoperative regimen, these are procedures that require an exclusive setup, and a commitment toward long-term follow-up and post-Kpro care. The last decade has seen a surge in the number of Kpro procedures performed worldwide as well as in India. There is a growing need in our country among ophthalmologists to be aware of the indications for Kpro to facilitate appropriate referral as well as of the procedure to enable basic evaluation during follow-ups in case the need arises, and among corneal specialists interested to pursue the field of Kpros in understanding the nuances of these surgeries and to make a judicious decision regarding patient and Kpro selection and more importantly deferral.

ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Antonio Conejero

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Scenarios depicting targets concerning mandatory bio-fuel blending are critical to the strategic planning of food and bio-energy production chains and their design is the purpose of this paper. Each scenario tells a story about how various elements might interact under given conditions. The method herein utilized is primarily based on Schoemaker´s (1995 and Schwartz´s (1991 earlier proposals. A six step framework is followed: i identify the focal issue; ii summarize current mandatory blending targets; iii identify the driving forces as of a macro-environmental analysis; iv validate driving forces with specialists; v rank such key forces by importance before uncertainties, building a correlation matrix; vi design the scenarios. Finally, three alternative scenarios, relative to the adoption on behalf of countries, by the year 2020, of mandatory bio-fuel blending targets, are proposed which might guide these countries’ decision makers when planning production systems.

Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

2012-01-01

Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

Sustainable energy prices and growth. Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahlroth, Sofia; Hoejer, Mattias

2007-01-01

How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they do not, mostly - they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them. Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth. The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low

Current approaches to challenging scenarios in myeloproliferative neoplasms.

Science.gov (United States)

Zimran, Eran; Hoffman, Ronald; Kremyanskaya, Marina

2018-06-01

The Philadelphia chromosome-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) including polycythemia vera, essential thrombocythemia and primary myelofibrosis are clonal hematological malignancies that originate at the level of the hematopoietic stem cell, and are characterized by excessive proliferation of cells belonging to one or more of the myeloid lineages. Central to the pathogenesis of the MPNs is constitutive activation of the JAK/STAT signaling pathway due to a family of driver mutations affecting JAK2, CALR or MPL. These disorders share common clinical and laboratory features, a significant burden of systemic symptoms, increased risk of developing arterial and venous thrombotic events, and the potential to progress to myelofibrosis and acute leukemia. Areas covered: We identified four clinical situations which represent challenging management dilemmas for patients with MPNs. Our conclusions and recommendations are based on a literature search using MEDLINE and recent meeting abstracts using the keywords, focusing on publications directly addressing these scenarios and on recent contributions to the field. Expert commentary: Multi-center efforts to study large cohorts of MPN patients have led to more uniform and evidence-based approaches to key aspects in MPN management. However, treatment strategies to deal with specific clinical scenarios are lacking.

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Reforming health care in Canada: current issues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baris Enis

1998-01-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the current health care reform issues in Canada. The provincial health insurance plans of the 1960s and 1970s had the untoward effects of limiting the federal government's clout for cost control and of promoting a system centered on inpatient and medical care. Recently, several provincial commissions reported that the current governance structures and management processes are outmoded in light of new knowledge, new fiscal realities and the evolution of power among stake-holders. They recommend decentralized governance and restructuring for better management and more citizen participation. Although Canada's health care system remains committed to safeguarding its guiding principles, the balance of power may be shifting from providers to citizens and "technocrats". Also, all provinces are likely to increase their pressure on physicians by means of salary caps, by exploring payment methods such as capitation, limiting access to costly technology, and by demanding practice changes based on evidence of cost-effectiveness.

Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

Science.gov (United States)

Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

2017-04-01

The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-11-15

In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

Report on the Current Technical Issues on ASME Nuclear Code and Standard

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koo, Gyeong Hoi; Lee, B. S.; Yoo, S. H.

2008-11-01

This report describes the analysis on the current revision movement related to the mechanical design issues of the U.S ASME nuclear code and standard. ASME nuclear mechanical design in this report is composed of the nuclear material, primary system, secondary system and high temperature reactor. This report includes the countermeasures based on the ASME Code meeting for current issues of each major field. KAMC(ASME Mirror Committee) of this project is willing to reflect a standpoint of the domestic nuclear industry on ASME nuclear mechanical design and play a technical bridge role for the domestic nuclear industry in ASME Codes application

Radiation risk - historical perspective and current issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kellerer, Albrecht M. [Strahlenbiologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet, Munich, Germany and Institute for Radiation Biology, GSF-National Research Center for Environment and Health, Neuherberg (Germany)

2002-09-01

The assessment of radiation risk needs to be seen against the background of a historical development that has reversed the initial belief in a general beneficial effect of radiation to apprehension and fear. Numerical risk estimates are, today, based on large epidemiological studies, and the observations on the A-bomb survivors are outlined as the primary source of information. Since the epidemiological findings are obtained from relatively high radiation exposures, extrapolations are required to the much lower doses that are relevant to radiation protection. The evolution of extrapolation procedures up to current attempts at mechanistic modelling is outlined, and some of the open issues are reviewed. (author)

Radiation risk - historical perspective and current issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kellerer, Albrecht M.

2002-01-01

The assessment of radiation risk needs to be seen against the background of a historical development that has reversed the initial belief in a general beneficial effect of radiation to apprehension and fear. Numerical risk estimates are, today, based on large epidemiological studies, and the observations on the A-bomb survivors are outlined as the primary source of information. Since the epidemiological findings are obtained from relatively high radiation exposures, extrapolations are required to the much lower doses that are relevant to radiation protection. The evolution of extrapolation procedures up to current attempts at mechanistic modelling is outlined, and some of the open issues are reviewed. (author)

The Value of CCS under Current Policy Scenarios: NDCs and Beyond

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davidson, Casie L.; Dahowski, Robert T.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Clarke, Leon E.; Iyer, Gokul C.; Muratori, Matteo

2017-07-01

This paper describes preliminary results of analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to evaluate the potential role of CCS in addressing emissions reduction targets. Scenarios are modelled using the Paris-Increased Ambition (PIA) case developed by Fawcett et al. (2015), and a more aggressive Paris Two-Degree Ambition (P2A) case. Both cases are based upon nationally determined contributions (NDCs) agreed to at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP-21) in December 2015, coupled with additional mitigation effort beyond the 2030 Paris timeframe, through the end of the century. Analysis of CCS deployment and abatement costs under both policy scenarios suggests that, as modelled, having CCS in the technological portfolio could reduce the global cost of addressing emissions reduction targets specified under the policy scenario by trillions of dollars, primarily by enabling a smoother and lower-cost transition to next-generation technologies. Through the end of the century, total global abatement costs associated with the PIA case – with five percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 2.2 degrees by 2100 – are reduced by $15 trillion USD in the scenario where CCS is available to deploy by 2025 and remains available through 2100, reflecting a 47 percent savings in the cost of climate change abatement. Under the more ambitious P2A case, with 8 percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 1.9 degrees by 2100, the availability of CCS reduces global abatement costs by $22 trillion USD through the end of the century, again nearly halving the costs of addressing the policy, relative to achieving the same target using an energy portfolio that does not include CCS. PIA and P2A scenarios with CCS result in 1,250 and 1,580 GtCO2 of global geologic storage by the end of the century, respectively.

CALL FOR PAPERS: Special issue on Current Trends in Integrability and Nonlinear Phenomena Special issue on Current Trends in Integrability and Nonlinear Phenomena

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-Ullate, D.; Lombardo, S.; Mañas, M.; Mazzocco, M.; Nijhoff, F.; Sommacal, M.

2009-12-01

may be found at www.iop.org/Journals/jphysa. Contributions to the special issue should if possible be submitted electronically by web upload at www.iop.org/Journals/jphysa, or by email to jphysa@iop.org, quoting 'JPhysA Special Issue: Current Trends in Integrability and Nonlinear Phenomena' Submissions should ideally be in standard LaTeX form. Please see the website for further information on electronic submissions. Authors unable to submit electronically may send hard-copy contributions to: Publishing Administrators, Journal of Physics A, IOP Publishing, Dirac House, Temple Back, Bristol BS1 6BE, UK. Please quote 'JPhysA Special Issue—Current Trends in Integrability and Nonlinear Phenomena'. All contributions should be accompanied by a read-me file or covering letter giving the postal and e-mail addresses for correspondence. The Publishing Office should be notified of any subsequent change of address. This special issue will be published in the paper and online version of the journal.

The negaWatt 2011 scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-03-01

This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

B factory RF system design issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zisman, M.S.

1992-01-01

We discuss the issues of relevance to the design of a B factory RF system. First, the general parameter regime is outlined, and the reasons behind certain commonly made choices are indicated. This regime involves high beam currents, and many relatively short bunches. Next, the physics difficulties associated with coupled-bunch instabilities are described briefly. We then describe in general terms the alternative approaches taken by various B factory designers, the motivation for these choices, and the technical issues raised by them. Technical solutions have been proposed for both the room-temperature and the superconducting RF scenarios, and considerable R ampersand D is being carried out worldwide to confirm and optimize these solutions

B factory rf system design issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zisman, M.S.

1992-06-01

We discuss the issues of relevance to the design of a B factory RF system. First, the general parameter regime is outlined, and the reasons behind certain commonly made choices are indicated. This regime involves high beam currents, and many relatively short bunches. Next, the physics difficulties associated with coupled-bunch instabilities are described briefly. We then describe in general terms the alternative approaches taken by various B factory designers, the motivation for these choices, and the technical issues raised by them. Technical solutions have been proposed for both the room-temperature and the superconducting RF scenarios, and considerable R ampersand D is being carried out worldwide to confirm and optimize these solutions

Current Economic Issues in Employee Benefits. Background Paper No. 39.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodbury, Stephen A.

A multitude of public policy issues currently surround the tax treatment of employee benefits, particularly since the tax-favored status of employer contributions to pensions and health insurance has been blamed for a shrinking tax base that has exacerbated the federal budget deficit, an inefficient and bloated health-care sector, overinsurance by…

NON-PROLIFERATION IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR GNEP: ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH TRANSPORTATION.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Radel, Ross; Rochau, Gary E

2008-03-01

This report evaluates transportation issues for nuclear material in the proposed Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) fuel cycle. Since many details of the GNEP program are yet to be determined, this document is intended only to identify general issues. The existing regulatory environment is determined to be largely prepared to incorporate the changes that the GNEP program will introduce. Nuclear material vulnerability and attractiveness are considered with respect to the various transport stages within the GNEP fuel cycle. Physical protection options are then outlined for the transportation of this nuclear material. It is determined that increased transportation security will be required for the GNEP fuel cycle, particularly for international transport. Finally, transportation considerations for several fuel cycle scenarios are discussed. These scenarios compare the current "once-through" fuel cycle with various aspects of the proposed GNEP fuel cycle. 3

The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

2013-01-01

After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

Current and Emerging Ethical Issues in Counseling: A Delphi Study of Expert Opinions

Science.gov (United States)

Herlihy, Barbara; Dufrene, Roxane L.

2011-01-01

A Delphi study was conducted to ascertain the opinions of panel experts regarding the most important current and emerging ethical issues facing the counseling profession. Expert opinions on ethical issues in counselor preparation also were sought. Eighteen panelists responded to 3 rounds of data collection interspersed with feedback. Themes that…

Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banano, E.J.; Baca, R.G.

1995-08-01

The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ''scenario approach,'' while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ''ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ''scenario'' and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository

Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Banano, E.J. [Beta Corporation International, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Baca, R.G. [Southwest Research Inst., San Antonio, TX (United States). Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses

1995-08-01

The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ``scenario approach,`` while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ``ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ``scenario`` and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository.

Feminism and nurse-midwifery. Historical overview and current issues.

Science.gov (United States)

McCool, W F; McCool, S J

1989-01-01

Despite the fact that the profession of nurse-midwifery and feminism are both disciplines concerned with women and issues affecting women's lives, there has been little investigation or acknowledgement of relationships between their two paradigms. The work presented here is an attempt to discover both similarities and differences between nurse-midwifery and feminist thought. Using a historical approach, it is shown that despite the common goal of improving and maintaining women's status in the world, whether in general or more specifically with regard to health, feminist theorists and nurse-midwives, to a large degree, have worked separately from each other, rarely acknowledging in any formal way the importance of the other discipline. Current issues that have an effect on the practice of nurse-midwifery today--lay midwifery, the profession of nursing, and nurse-midwifery research--are presented in relation to contemporary feminist thought.

Full steady state LH scenarios in Tore Supra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazarian-Vibert, F.; Litaudon, X.; Arslanbekov, R.; Hoang, G.T.; Moreau, D.; Peysson, Y.

1995-01-01

Lower Hybrid discharge have been realised in Tore Supra using feed-back control of the primary circuit voltage such that the loop voltage was maintained exactly to zero near the plasma surface. This new scenario allows the plasma current to float and quickly reach an equilibrium value determined by the current drive efficiency and Lower Hybrid power. Recent experimental results show that, with the new constant flux scenario the coupled plasma and primary currents reach a steady state in less than 10 s which is a good agreement with theoretical expectations. A complete analysis of this scenario is presented. (authors). 8 refs., 3 figs

Current scenario of chalcopyrite bioleaching: a review on the recent advances to its heap-leach technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Panda, Sandeep; Akcil, Ata; Pradhan, Nilotpala; Deveci, Haci

2015-11-01

Chalcopyrite is the primary copper mineral used for production of copper metal. Today, as a result of rapid industrialization, there has been enormous demand to profitably process the low grade chalcopyrite and "dirty" concentrates through bioleaching. In the current scenario, heap bioleaching is the most advanced and preferred eco-friendly technology for processing of low grade, uneconomic/difficult-to-enrich ores for copper extraction. This paper reviews the current status of chalcopyrite bioleaching. Advanced information with the attempts made for understanding the diversity of bioleaching microorganisms; role of OMICs based research for future applications to industrial sectors and chemical/microbial aspects of chalcopyrite bioleaching is discussed. Additionally, the current progress made to overcome the problems of passivation as seen in chalcopyrite bioleaching systems have been conversed. Furthermore, advances in the designing of heap bioleaching plant along with microbial and environmental factors of importance have been reviewed with conclusions into the future prospects of chalcopyrite bioleaching. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scenarios for remote gas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

2009-01-01

The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

2012-01-01

In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besseghir, K.

2013-06-01

The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Besseghir, K.

2013-06-15

The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

Chernobyl, Three Mile Island and beyond: Lessons for Ontario? Current issue paper 117

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yeager, K L

1991-03-01

This current issue paper reviews major accidents which have occurred at commercial and military nuclear facilities, and provides basic background on nuclear power and reactor design features to assist the novice in understanding the very complex technical issues surrounding these events. Above all, the role of human factors in the prevention of potential accident situations is emphasized. (author).

Chernobyl, Three Mile Island and beyond: Lessons for Ontario? Current issue paper 117

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeager, K.L.

1991-03-01

This current issue paper reviews major accidents which have occurred at commercial and military nuclear facilities, and provides basic background on nuclear power and reactor design features to assist the novice in understanding the very complex technical issues surrounding these events. Above all, the role of human factors in the prevention of potential accident situations is emphasized. (author)

Development of steady-state scenarios compatible with ITER-like wall conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Litaudon, X [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Arnoux, G [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Beurskens, M [Euratom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)] (and others)

2007-12-15

A key issue for steady-state tokamak operation is to determine the edge conditions that are compatible both with good core confinement and with the power handling and plasma exhaust capabilities of the plasma facing components (PFCs) and divertor systems. A quantitative response to this open question will provide a robust scientific basis for reliable extrapolation of present regimes to an ITER compatible steady-state scenario. In this context, the JET programme addressing steady-state operation is focused on the development of non-inductive, high confinement plasmas with the constraints imposed by the PFCs. A new beryllium main chamber wall and tungsten divertor together with an upgrade of the heating/fuelling capability are currently in preparation at JET. Operation at higher power with this ITER-like wall will impose new constraints on non-inductive scenarios. Recent experiments have focused on the preparation for this new phase of JET operation. In this paper, progress in the development of advanced tokamak (AT) scenarios at JET is reviewed keeping this long-term objective in mind. The approach has consisted of addressing various critical issues separately during the 2006-2007 campaigns with a view to full scenario integration when the JET upgrades are complete. Regimes with internal transport barriers (ITBs) have been developed at q{sub 95} {approx} 5 and high triangularity, {delta} (relevant to the ITER steady-state demonstration) by applying more than 30 MW of additional heating power reaching {beta}{sub N} {approx} 2 at B{sub o} {approx} 3.1 T. Operating at higher {delta} has allowed the edge pedestal and core densities to be increased pushing the ion temperature closer to that of the electrons. Although not yet fully integrated into a performance enhancing ITB scenario, Neon seeding has been successfully explored to increase the radiated power fraction (up to 60%), providing significant reduction of target tile power fluxes (and hence temperatures) and

Energy perspectives 2035 - Volume 2, scenarios I to IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, A.

2007-01-01

This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the four scenarios concerning future developments in Swiss energy supply policy. The four complex scenarios include variants entitled 'business as usual', 'increased co-operation', 'new priorities' and 'on the way to a 2000-Watt society'. These scenarios deal with the development of energy demand and electricity offerings in Switzerland for the period 1990 to 2035. They are reviewed in the light of various sensitivity factors. These sensitivity factors include a high GDP, oil prices of 50 US-dollars per barrel and a warmer climate. The report presents the results of the model calculations made. First of all, the report takes a look at the motivation and aims behind the work and discusses the modelling methods, system limits and conventions used and the possibilities offered by the perspectives as well as the limits encountered. The four scenarios are then presented and discussed in detail. Implementation variants in the private, services, industrial and traffic sectors are discussed and various electricity supply variants are presented, as are the associated environmental issues involved. The scenarios are compared with each other and pricing and security of supply issues are discussed. Finally, a short synopsis of the scenarios is presented and decision criteria are discussed as are implementation instruments. Ethical dilemmas and the risks involved are noted

Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

2011-07-15

There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

Simulations of KSTAR high performance steady state operation scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Na, Yong-Su; Kessel, C.E.; Park, J.M.; Yi, Sumin; Kim, J.Y.; Becoulet, A.; Sips, A.C.C.

2009-01-01

We report the results of predictive modelling of high performance steady state operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the capabilities of steady state operation are investigated with time-dependent simulations using a free-boundary plasma equilibrium evolution code coupled with transport calculations. Secondly, the reproducibility of high performance steady state operation scenarios developed in the DIII-D tokamak, of similar size to that of KSTAR, is investigated using the experimental data taken from DIII-D. Finally, the capability of ITER-relevant steady state operation is investigated in KSTAR. It is found that KSTAR is able to establish high performance steady state operation scenarios; β N above 3, H 98 (y, 2) up to 2.0, f BS up to 0.76 and f NI equals 1.0. In this work, a realistic density profile is newly introduced for predictive simulations by employing the scaling law of a density peaking factor. The influence of the current ramp-up scenario and the transport model is discussed with respect to the fusion performance and non-inductive current drive fraction in the transport simulations. As observed in the experiments, both the heating and the plasma current waveforms in the current ramp-up phase produce a strong effect on the q-profile, the fusion performance and also on the non-inductive current drive fraction in the current flattop phase. A criterion in terms of q min is found to establish ITER-relevant steady state operation scenarios. This will provide a guideline for designing the current ramp-up phase in KSTAR. It is observed that the transport model also affects the predictive values of fusion performance as well as the non-inductive current drive fraction. The Weiland transport model predicts the highest fusion performance as well as non-inductive current drive fraction in KSTAR. In contrast, the GLF23 model exhibits the lowest ones. ITER-relevant advanced scenarios cannot be obtained with the GLF23 model in the conditions given in this work

RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

2016-01-01

studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

Scenario for a patient at home in health and social care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Winge M

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Monica Winge,1 Eva Lindh-Waterworth2 1Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; 2Department of Informatics, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden Abstract: This paper describes and discusses the situation for a typical patient with multiple illnesses and how his case would benefit from improved coordination, communication, and collaboration among all involved care providers. The paper is built around a patient case presented in a current scenario. The authors identified that for a single patient with several problems and diagnoses and the involvement of several care actors, the common issues concern lack of collaboration, lack of coordination, and awareness of what others have done to assess, plan, perform, and evaluate care. This presumably leads to a lack of care quality and a lack of effective use of care resources. The scenario and the findings are based on a patient-oriented perspective, on an analysis expressed in focus groups, and on interviews with key actors in health and social care. The paper also discusses the fact that an increasing number of patients are treated in their homes by a variety of organizations, and how this fact raises new and more intense demands on the various stakeholders forming the care staff to collaborate and coordinate care. We point to the need for managers in and between organizations to agree on the ways of collaborating at the operational level. Most importantly, by taking a basic set of issues as the starting point for reasoning, we derived a set of related problems and suggest solutions to deal with these. The literature currently lacks scenario descriptions that put the patient's situation into focus with respect to collaboration between health and social care. Finally, the paper presents a future case for collaboration including support by new e-services. Keywords: multisectorial collaboration, coordination, communication, patient-centered care, home care, health

The Scenario Planning Paradox

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

2017-01-01

planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

Evaluating the enablers in solar power developments in the current scenario using fuzzy DEMATEL

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Luthra, Sunil; Govindan, Kannan; Kharb, Ravinder K.

2016-01-01

Determining solar power initiatives and developments for a country as large as India is difficult due to the involvement of different enablers. The decisions of these enablers will influence the formulation of strategies to encourage solar power development in India. The present research work...... critically analyzes Indian solar power developments to recognize and to evaluate key enablers that will encourage greater usage in Indias current scenario. A literature review that explores the Indian solar power sector is included, with a focus on need potential, and an examination of the key enablers....... This work identifies sixteen solar power enablers based on relevant literature and experts inputs. To evaluate and to categorize the recognized solar power development key enablers, a fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) based methodology is utilized. The fuzzy DEMATEL approach...

Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

2004-07-01

In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

Food and Health Some Current Issues and Future Trends

OpenAIRE

Gormley, T. R. (Thomas Ronan)

1991-01-01

This paper deals with some of the many current issues and future trends in the area of food, diet and health in Europe. A complete coverage would be impossible in a short article in view of the extent and complexity of the food system and its major interaction with health. It is also important to stress at the outset that food/diet is only one component of health and other factors such as environment, overall lifestyle and genetics also play a major role. The genetic dimension is of particula...

CKM Phenomenology and B-mesons physics-present status and current issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, A.

2004-01-01

We review the status of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrix elements and the CP-violating phases in the CKM-unitarity triangle. The emphasis in these lecture notes is on B-meson physics, through we also review the current status and issues in the light quark sector of this matrix. Selected applications of theoretical methods in QCD used in the interpretation of data are given and some of the issues restricting the theoretical precision on the CKM matrix elements discussed. The overall consistency of the CKM theory with the available data in flavour physics is impressive and we quantify this consistency. Current data also show some anomalies which, however, are not yet statistically significant. They are discussed briefly. some benchmark measurements that remain to be done in experiments at the B-factories and hadron colliders are listed. Together with the already achieved results, they will provide unprecedented test of the CKM theory and by the same token may lead to the discovery of new physics. (Author) 284 refs

Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng; Link, Robert; Clarke, Leon; Maciejewski, Ross

2017-01-01

Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchical clustering approach.

Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

2014-01-01

The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

Syria and Iran: what next? Three potential scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tertrais, Bruno

2013-10-01

Now that the United Nations resolution has been voted, the most complicated task begins: ensuring that Syria entirely and definitively gets rid of its chemical arsenal, which unfortunately has every chance of enduring. In this respect three scenarios are possible, each of which would have different repercussions for the region, notably regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, which is now being considered in a new light following Hassan Rohani's charm offensive. Yet, these consequences could also have a profound and lasting effect on the relationship between the United States and its allies. In the first scenario the agreement with Syria will be applied in a satisfactory manner, and could serve as a positive example to Iran, which might be more inclined to signing a nuclear deal. To date, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Guide, has been wary of the ongoing negotiations, considering that it is impossible to trust the Western States whose sole objective is the downfall of the Iranian regime. Russia, buoyed by its new role in the region, would contribute in a more constructive manner to the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue... Care must be taken, however, as Iran could just as well conclude as a result of the events of the summer of 2013, particularly from U.S. procrastination, that Western States are not willing to use force in the Middle East, and thus on the contrary draw out the negotiations without fearing the possibility of a U.S. strike. According to the second scenario, Syria will not implement the agreement, the crisis will be renewed, and will end with a Western strike, most probably without a U.N. mandate. This scenario would boost the confidence of U.S. allies in the region, who have a tendency to doubt the United States' determination to defend them. This could be seen as a warning to Iran, but the lessons that Iran would take from this scenario would undoubtedly depend on the balance of power in Tehran at the time: the moderates would push for a deal to avoid

Current safety issues related to research reactor operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alcala-Ruiz, F.

2000-01-01

The Agency has included activities on research reactor safety in its Programme and Budget (P and B) since its inception in 1957. Since then, these activities have traditionally been oriented to fulfil the Agency's functions and obligations. At the end of the decade of the eighties, the Agency's Research Reactor Safety Programme (RRSP) consisted of a limited number of tasks related to the preparation of safety related publications and the conduct of safety missions to research reactor facilities. It was at the beginning of the nineties when the RRSP was upgraded and expanded as a subprogramme of the Agency's P and B. This subprogramme continued including activities related to the above subjects and started addressing an increasing number of issues related to the current situation of research reactors (in operation and shut down) around the world such as reactor ageing, modifications and decommissioning. The present paper discusses some of the above issues as recognised by various external review or advisory groups (e.g., Peer Review Groups under the Agency's Performance Programme Appraisal System (PPAS) or the standing International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG)) and the impact of their recommendations on the preparation and implementation of the part of the Agency's P and B relating to the above subject. (author)

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

Study of the non inductive current generation in Tore Supra and application to the operational scenario of a continuous tokamak; Etude de la generation de courant non inductive dans Tore Supra et application aux scenarios operationnels d`un tokamak continu

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kazarian-Vibert, F.

1996-07-05

Lower Hybrid Current Drive in tokamak plasmas allows to obtain continuous operations, which constitute a necessary step towards a definition of a thermonuclear fusion reactor. The objectives of this work is to define and study fully non inductive steady-state scenarios on Tore Supra. The current diffusion equation is solved to determined precisely the inductive and non inductive current density profiles and their influence on thee time evolution of a discharge. Then, a new operation mode is studied theoretically and experimentally. In this scenario, the transformer primary circuit voltage is controlled in such a way that the flux consumption vanishes. It allows to achieve full steady-state discharges in a fast and reproducible manner. A theoretical flux consumption scaling law during plasma current ramp-up assisted by Lower-Hybrid waves is presented and validated by experimental data, in view to minimized this consumption. The influence of a non monotonic current profile on the confinement and the transport of energy in the plasma is also clearly illustrated by experiments. (author). 138 refs., 16 figs., 1 tab.

Scenarios for world agriculture and the Brazilian biofuels program; Cenarios para a agricultura mundial e o programa brasileiro de biocombustiveis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Demanboro, Antonio Carlos; Mariotoni, Carlos Alberto; Naturesa, Jim Silva; Santos Junior, Joubert Rodrigues do [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (NIPE/UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Nucleo Interdisciplinar de Planejamento Energetico], Emails: anto1810@fec.unicamp.br, cam@fec.unicamp.br

2006-07-01

Three scenarios are elaborated denominated: 'tendency', 'sustainable development' and 'equilibrium'. The scenario 'tendency' tries to show how serious issues such as environmental, economic and social will be pushed to the limit, if current trends persist. The level of awareness of population, businesses and governments about the severity of current and future environmental problems does not change. In the 'sustainable development' scenario are introduced changes in economic, ecological and social developments seeking to reach the sustainable development in long term. There is a slow change in the current economic paradigm for the economic 'sustainable' and also the level of awareness of the population. The competitive paradigm gives way slowly to the place of community cooperation. Some of the technologies type 'end of pipe' and the substitution of dangerous technologies to the environment are introduced. In the 'equilibrium' scenario deep changes are proposed in the man's relationship with the nature and of man himself. The current economic paradigm is changed to the state stable in the medium term. The level of awareness of the population increases greatly, resulting in the reduction of waste, leading to demand for products with greater durability and repairability and agricultural products without pesticides. The competitive paradigm is changed to the community cooperation. The main conclusion is that it is necessary to do a strategic evaluation of the brazilian biofuels program.

Epidemiological and Economic Evaluation of Alternative On-Farm Management Scenarios for Ovine Footrot in Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dana Zingg

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Footrot is a multifactorial infectious disease mostly affecting sheep, caused by the bacteria Dichelobacter nodosus. It causes painful feet lesions resulting in animal welfare issues, weight loss, and reduced wool production, which leads to a considerable economic burden in animal production. In Switzerland, the disease is endemic and mandatory coordinated control programs exist only in some parts of the country. This study aimed to compare two nationwide control strategies and a no intervention scenario with the current situation, and to quantify their net economic effect. This was done by sequential application of a maximum entropy model (MEM, epidemiological simulation, and calculation of net economic effect using the net present value method. Building upon data from a questionnaire, the MEM revealed a nationwide footrot prevalence of 40.2%. Regional prevalence values were used as inputs for the epidemiological model. Under the application of the nationwide coordinated control program without (scenario B and with (scenario C improved diagnostics [polymerase chain reaction (PCR test], the Swiss-wide prevalence decreased within 10 years to 14 and 5%, respectively. Contrary, an increase to 48% prevalence was observed when terminating the current control strategies (scenario D. Management costs included labor and material costs. Management benefits included reduction of fattening time and improved animal welfare, which is valued by Swiss consumers and therefore reduces societal costs. The net economic effect of the alternative scenarios B and C was positive, the one of scenario D was negative and over a period of 17 years quantified at CHF 422.3, 538.3, and −172.3 million (1 CHF = 1.040 US$, respectively. This implies that a systematic Swiss-wide management program under the application of the PCR diagnostic test is the most recommendable strategy for a cost-effective control of footrot in Switzerland.

Prospects for steady-state tokamak reactor operation through feedback control of the current density profile

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moreau, D

1994-12-31

A brief overview of the most relevant experiments on current profile modifications, strong improvements with respect to the usual L-mode scaling laws and Troyon beta limit is presented, as relevant issues for most tokamaks. Practical means and scenarios for producing and maintaining the optimum current profiles in the various phases of the thermonuclear discharge (profile formation, current ramp-up, burn phase) are proposed. (author). 34 refs., 3 figs.

Current ethical and legal issues in health-related direct-to-consumer genetic testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Niemiec, Emilia; Kalokairinou, Louiza; Howard, Heidi Carmen

2017-09-01

A variety of health-related genetic testing is currently advertized directly to consumers. This article provides a timely overview of direct-to-consumer genetic testing (DTC GT) and salient ethical issues, as well as an analysis of the impact of the recently adopted regulation on in vitro diagnostic medical devices on DTC GT. DTC GT companies currently employ new testing approaches, report on a wide spectrum of conditions and target new groups of consumers. Such activities raise ethical issues including the questionable analytic and clinical validity of tests, the adequacy of informed consent, potentially misleading advertizing, testing in children, research uses and commercialization of genomic data. The recently adopted regulation on in vitro diagnostic medical devices may limit the offers of predisposition DTC GT in the EU market.

Scenario development and analysis in JNC'S second progress report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Umeki, H.; Makino, H.; Miyahara, K.; Naito, M.

2001-01-01

Scenario development and analysis is an integral part of the performance assessment in the JNC's second progress report which will be issued by the end of November 1999. A systematic approach has been elaborated to ensure traceability and transparency in overall context of the scenario development and set up of calculation cases for assessment of the repository performance. In this approach, the hierarchical FEP matrix was designed to flexibly identify FEPs at different level of detail. The reasoned argument with clearly defined criteria was then applied for screening and grouping of FEPs to define scenarios in the form of influence diagrams. Scenarios and calculation cases were developed based on the expected safety functions of disposal system and relationships with potential detrimental/favorable factors and perturbation factors. The process to develop scenarios and calculation cases are recorded and managed in a computer system. (authors)

Fast-ion transport in qmin>2, high-β steady-state scenarios on DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holcomb, C. T.; Heidbrink, W. W.; Collins, C.; Ferron, J. R.; Van Zeeland, M. A.; Garofalo, A. M.; Bass, E. M.; Luce, T. C.; Pace, D. C.; Solomon, W. M.; Mueller, D.; Grierson, B.; Podesta, M.; Gong, X.; Ren, Q.; Park, J. M.; Kim, K.; Turco, F.

2015-01-01

Results from experiments on DIII-D [J. L. Luxon, Fusion Sci. Technol. 48, 828 (2005)] aimed at developing high β steady-state operating scenarios with high-q min confirm that fast-ion transport is a critical issue for advanced tokamak development using neutral beam injection current drive. In DIII-D, greater than 11 MW of neutral beam heating power is applied with the intent of maximizing β N and the noninductive current drive. However, in scenarios with q min >2 that target the typical range of q 95 = 5–7 used in next-step steady-state reactor models, Alfvén eigenmodes cause greater fast-ion transport than classical models predict. This enhanced transport reduces the absorbed neutral beam heating power and current drive and limits the achievable β N . In contrast, similar plasmas except with q min just above 1 have approximately classical fast-ion transport. Experiments that take q min >3 plasmas to higher β P with q 95 = 11–12 for testing long pulse operation exhibit regimes of better than expected thermal confinement. Compared to the standard high-q min scenario, the high β P cases have shorter slowing-down time and lower ∇β fast , and this reduces the drive for Alfvénic modes, yielding nearly classical fast-ion transport, high values of normalized confinement, β N , and noninductive current fraction. These results suggest DIII-D might obtain better performance in lower-q 95 , high-q min plasmas using broader neutral beam heating profiles and increased direct electron heating power to lower the drive for Alfvén eigenmodes

Nuclear power systems: Their safety. Current issue review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myers, L.C.

1994-04-01

Human beings utilize energy in many forms and from a variety of sources. A number of countries have chosen nuclear-electric generation as a component of their energy system. At the end of 1992, there were 419 power reactors operating in 29 countries, accounting for more than 15% of the world's production of electricity. In 1992, 13 countries derived at least 25% of their electricity from nuclear units, with Lithuania leading at just over 78%, followed closely by France at 72%. In the same year, Canada produced about 16% of its electricity from nuclear units. Some 53 power reactors are under construction in 14 countries outside the former USSR. Within the ex-USSR countries, six new reactors are currently under construction. No human endeavour carries the guarantee of perfect safety and the question of whether of not nuclear-electric generation represents an 'acceptable' risk to society has long been vigorously debated. Until the events of late April 1986 in the then Soviet Union, nuclear safety had indeed been an issue for discussion, for some concern, but not for alarm. The accident at the Chernobyl reactor irrevocably changed all that. This disaster brought the matter of nuclear safety into the public mind in a dramatic fashion. Subsequent opening of the ex-Soviet nuclear power program to outside scrutiny has done little to calm people's concerns about the safety of nuclear power in that part of the world. This paper discusses the issue of safety in complex energy systems and provides brief accounts of some of the most serious reactor accidents that have occurred to date, as well as more recent, less dramatic events touching on the safety issue. (author). 7 refs

Female sex trafficking: conceptual issues, current debates, and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Meshkovska, Biljana; Siegel, Melissa; Stutterheim, Sarah E; Bos, Arjan E R

2015-01-01

Female sex trafficking is a pressing concern. In this article, we provide a comprehensive overview of relevant issues regarding the concept of female sex trafficking and research in the field of human trafficking, drawing on a variety of disciplines, including economics, gender and sexuality studies, psychology, sociology, law, and social work. We discuss the debates surrounding the definition of human trafficking, compare and contrast it with human smuggling, and outline connections between female sex trafficking and the issue of sex work and prostitution. We further discuss the history and current estimations of female sex trafficking. We then outline the main actors in female sex trafficking, including trafficked persons, traffickers, clients, and service providers, and we overview the trafficking process from recruitment to identification, recovery, and (re)integration. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for future research that tie together the concepts of vulnerability, exploitation, and long-term recovery and (re)integration.

Concepts of Scenario Methods in Improvement of an Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edyta Bielinska-Dusza

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the study, principal objectives, scope of the investigation, methods employed results and principal conclusion. Uncertainty makes both theoreticians and practicioners face new tasks to fulfil. Enterprises, in order to win the competitive struggle must constantly improve their processes and structures. On the other hand, thinking in the categories of the future becomes really difficult nowadays. This creates particularly convenient conditions to apply scenario methods. In connection with the above, the purpose of this study is to characterize the essence of scenario methods employed in enterprise development. The article addresses the issue of factors conditioning proper selection of methods in the enterprise development process, the principles of scenario planning and the opportunities to apply other techniques and methods in scenario planning.

The treatment of Parkinson's disease with deep brain stimulation: current issues.

Science.gov (United States)

Moldovan, Alexia-Sabine; Groiss, Stefan Jun; Elben, Saskia; Südmeyer, Martin; Schnitzler, Alfons; Wojtecki, Lars

2015-07-01

Deep brain stimulation has become a well-established symptomatic treatment for Parkinson's disease during the last 25 years. Besides improving motor symptoms and long-term motor complications, positive effects on patients' mobility, activities of daily living, emotional well-being and health-related quality of life have been recognized. Apart from that, numerous clinical trials analyzed effects on non-motor symptoms and side effects of deep brain stimulation. Several technical issues and stimulation paradigms have been and are still being developed to optimize the therapeutic effects, minimize the side effects and facilitate handling. This review summarizes current therapeutic issues, i.e., patient and target selection, surgical procedure and programming paradigms. In addition it focuses on neuropsychological effects and side effects of deep brain stimulation.

ECRH and ECCD scenarios for W7-X

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laqua H.P.

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The main ECRH scenarios for the W7-X Stellarator are described. Both X2 (low and moderate densities and O2 scenarios (high density have been studied. Since O2 scenario cannot be realized without pre-heating, transition from X2 to O2 scenarios has been discussed. Due to a lack of Ohmic transformer, only ECCD is available for compensating the bootstrap current and for controlling the edge rotational transform value. The efficiency of ECCD for all main scenarios has been estimated. All simulations have been performed by a 1D transport code coupled self-consistently with ray-tracing code.

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

Nuclear power in the OECD countries results and current issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, C.F.

1989-01-01

The first use of nuclear power for the generation of electricity on a commercial scale occurred in the United Kingdom in 1956. Today, 13 OECD countries have 318 nuclear units in operation and 66 more in construction or on order. This outstanding achievement is the result of the successful organization, start up, and operation of an industry to design, build, equip, fuel, and maintain these facilites. Nuclear power, however, is currently troubled by a number of issues that may impair its ability to reach its full potential. The industry has acknowledged problems that can be and are being managed. But the industry also has a number of political difficulties that could be beyond its ability to resolve with its own resources. These are issues common to the introduction of new technologies into a complex world. Nevertheless, nuclear power continues to be the means by which we can provide the electric power needed to raise the living standard of everyone on the globe

Assessment of BSBA Students' Conversancy in Current Business Issues: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Hogan, Eileen A.; Maskulka, Therese A.; Kaminski, Kathleen A.

2014-01-01

In 2008, the faculty of the College of Business at Kutztown University developed a set of five learning goals for its BSBA program. In fall, 2011, the college's Assurance of Learning Committee began to pursue the assessment of the last of these goals: "BSBA graduates will be conversant in current business issues, including ethics, social…

Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rypdal, Kristin; Rive, Nathan; Berntsen, Terje; Fagerli, Hilde; Klimont, Zbigniew; Mideksa, Torben K.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.

2009-01-01

In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO 2 , NO x , CH 4 , VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH 4 . While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO 2 , contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NO x and SO 2 should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies.

CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

2010-01-01

The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

Environmental cost-effectiveness of bio diesel production in Greece: Current policies and alternative scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iliopoulos, Constantine; Rozakis, Stelios

2010-01-01

Following European Directive 2003/30/EC, the Greek Government adapted legislation that introduces and regulates the bio diesel market. The implemented quota scheme allocates the country's annual, predetermined, tax exempt production of bio diesel to industries based on their ability to meet several criteria. A number of bio diesel supply chain stakeholders have criticized this policy for being efficiency-robbing and vague. This paper uses 2007 data from energy crop farms and three bio diesel-producing companies in order to assess these criticisms. We study the economic and environmental aspects of the currently adopted policy and compare them to three alternative scenarios. We conclude that such criticisms have a merit and that policy makers need to reconsider their alternative options regarding the promotion of bio diesel in transport. Permission of sales directly to local consumers and promotion of forward integration by farmers are efficiency enhancing and environment-friendly means of promoting the use of bio diesel in transport.

Information Technology in New Zealand: Review of Emerging Social Trends, Current Issues, and Policies

OpenAIRE

Erturk, Emre; Fail, Derwyn

2015-01-01

This paper discusses the general state of information technology in New Zealand society, current issues, and policies. It is a qualitative study that reviews recent scholarly articles, periodicals, and surveys in order to create an understanding of some of the information technology issues and trends in New Zealand. After reviewing previous research, it assesses the potential existence and nature of a 'digital divide' in New Zealand society whilst also evaluating possible strategic responses ...

International bioenergy trade. Scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heinimoe, J.; Pakarinen, V.; Ojanen, V.; Kaessi, T.

2007-07-01

The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and the second involved an international group. A heuristic, semi structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes. The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial

International bioenergy trade. Scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinimoe, J.; Pakarinen, V.; Ojanen, V.; Kaessi, T.

2007-01-01

The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and the second involved an international group. A heuristic, semi structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes. The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial

Ethical issues in brain-computer interface research, development, and dissemination.

Science.gov (United States)

Vlek, Rutger J; Steines, David; Szibbo, Dyana; Kübler, Andrea; Schneider, Mary-Jane; Haselager, Pim; Nijboer, Femke

2012-06-01

The steadily growing field of brain-computer interfacing (BCI) may develop useful technologies, with a potential impact not only on individuals, but also on society as a whole. At the same time, the development of BCI presents significant ethical and legal challenges. In a workshop during the 4th International BCI meeting (Asilomar, California, 2010), six panel members from various BCI laboratories and companies set out to identify and disentangle ethical issues related to BCI use in four case scenarios, which were inspired by current experiences in BCI laboratories. Results of the discussion are reported in this article, touching on topics such as the representation of persons with communication impairments, dealing with technological complexity and moral responsibility in multidisciplinary teams, and managing expectations, ranging from an individual user to the general public. Furthermore, we illustrate that where treatment and research interests conflict, ethical concerns arise. On the basis of the four case scenarios, we discuss salient, practical ethical issues that may confront any member of a typical multidisciplinary BCI team. We encourage the BCI and rehabilitation communities to engage in a dialogue, and to further identify and address pressing ethical issues as they occur in the practice of BCI research and its commercial applications.

Current legal issues of European integration in the area of peaceful uses of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Handrlica, Jakub

2009-01-01

The main issues of current discussions concerning the status of European integration in the area of peaceful uses of nuclear energy are described with focus on the present and future of the EURATOM Treaty. The basic features of the EURATOM Treaty are highlighted and those issues which are currently subject to discussion in foreign literature (e.g. EURATOM's legitimacy, specification of competencies, obsolete provisions, etc.) are pointed out. The major attempts to reform the wording of the EURATOM Treaty and the relevance of the Treaty to its Member States in the future, in relation to the 'Nuclear New Build' in particular, are also described. (orig.)

Current issues in allogeneic islet transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Charles A; Lawrence, Michael C; Naziruddin, Bashoo

2017-10-01

Transplantation of allogenic pancreatic islets is a minimally invasive treatment option to control severe hypoglycemia and dependence on exogenous insulin among type 1 diabetes (T1D) patients. This overview summarizes the current issues and progress in islet transplantation outcomes and research. Several clinical trials from North America and other countries have documented the safety and efficacy of clinical islet transplantation for T1D patients with impaired hypoglycemia awareness. A recently completed phase 3 clinical trial allows centres in the United States to apply for a Food and Drug Administration Biologics License for the procedure. Introduction of anti-inflammatory drugs along with T-cell depleting induction therapy has significantly improved long-term function of transplanted islets. Research into islet biomarkers, immunosuppression, extrahepatic transplant sites and potential alternative beta cell sources is driving further progress. Allogeneic islet transplantation has vastly improved over the past two decades. Success in restoration of glycemic control and hypoglycemic awareness after islet transplantation has been further highlighted by clinical trials. However, lack of effective strategies to maintain long-term islet function and insufficient sources of donor tissue still impose limitations to the widespread use of islet transplantation. In the United States, wide adoption of this technology still awaits regulatory approval and, importantly, a financial mechanism to support the use of this technology.

Introduction to the Issue on Current Trends in Terahertz Photonics and Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2013-01-01

Since the last special issue on terahertz science and technology, nearly three years have been passed. During this period, while there have been further developments in terahertz (THz) sources, detectors, materials, and applications, there have been new discoveries. The purpose of this issue of t...... reviews on recent THz research, the contributed papers cover a wide range of the cutting-edge research in the topics described earlier....... of the IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Quantum Electronics (JSTQE) is to highlight the advances in materials, devices, and applications and new directions in the THz domain within the last three years. Broad technical areas include: 1) materials; 2) matamaterials, plasmonics, and plasmons; 3) techniques...... and effects; 4) generation and power scaling; 5) detectors; 6) devices; 7) applications. These key THz topics are discussed in both invited and contributed papers published in this issue, providing comprehensive overviews of the current status and future directions as well as publishing original results...

Exploring the potential of combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenarios for robust strategies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bruin, de Jilske Olda; Kok, Kasper; Hoogstra-Klein, Marjanke Alberttine

2017-01-01

Literature critiques current predictive scenario approaches applied in the forest sector. Backcasting -a means to create normative scenarios- seems promising, but sparsely used. Combining backcasting with exploratory scenarios (combined scenario approach) seems appropriate to address these

Fast-wave current drive modelling for large non-circular tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batchelor, D.B.; Goldfinger, R.C.; Jaeger, E.F.; Carter, M.D.; Swain, D.W.; Ehst, D.; Karney, C.F.F.

1990-01-01

It is widely recognized that a key element in the development of an attractive tokamak reactor, and in the successful achievement of the mission of ITER, is the development of an efficient steady-state current drive technique. Fast waves in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies hold the promise to drive steady-state currents with the required efficiency and to effectively heat the plasma to ignition. Advantages over other heating and current drive techniques include low cost per watt and the ability to penetrate to the center of high-density plasmas. The primary issues that must be resolved are: can an antenna array be designed to radiate the required spectrum of waves and have adequate coupling properties? Will the rf power be efficiently absorbed by electrons in the desired velocity range without unacceptable parasitic damping by fuel ions or α particles? What will the efficiency of current drive be when toroidal effects such as trapped particles are included? Can a practical rf system be designed and integrated into the device? We have addressed these issues by performing extensive calculations with ORION, a 2-D code, and the ray tracing code RAYS, which calculate wave propagation, absorption and current drive in tokamak geometry, and with RIP, a 2-D code that self-consistently calculates current drive with MHD equilibrium. An important figure of merit in this context is the integrated, normalized current drive efficiency. The calculations that we present here emphasize the ITER device. We consider a low-frequency scenario such that no ion resonances appear in the machine, and a high-frequency scenario such that the deuterium second harmonic resonance is just outside the plasma and the tritium second harmonic is in the plasma, midway between the magnetic axis and the inside edge. In both cases electron currents are driven by combined TTMP and Landau damping of the fast waves

Predicting the behavioural impact of transcranial direct current stimulation: issues and limitations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Archy Otto De Berker

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The transcranial application of weak currents to the human brain has enjoyed a decade of success, providing a simple and powerful tool for non-invasively altering human brain function. However, our understanding of current delivery and its impact upon neural circuitry leaves much to be desired. We argue that the credibility of conclusions drawn with tDCS is contingent upon realistic explanations of how tDCS works, and that our present understanding of tDCS limits the technique’s use to localize function in the human brain. We outline two central issues where progress is required: the localization of currents, and predicting their functional consequence. We encourage experimenters to eschew simplistic explanations of mechanisms of transcranial current stimulation. We suggest the use of individualized current modelling, together with computational neurostimulation to inform mechanistic frameworks in which to interpret the physiological impact of tDCS. We hope that through mechanistically richer descriptions of current flow and action, insight into the biological processes by which transcranial currents influence behaviour can be gained, leading to more effective stimulation protocols and empowering conclusions drawn with tDCS.

Preface. Current Issues in Ethics

OpenAIRE

Holy-Luczaj Magdalena

2017-01-01

This interdisciplinary volume consist of papers on various problems in contemporary ethics. It presents the following issues: equalizing the level of positive liberty, the phenomenon of human cooperation, ethical questions related to artificial intelligence, extending ethical obligations toward artifacts, and soteriological threads of alienation criticism of religion.

Medicare Part D-a roundtable discussion of current issues and trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Balfour, Donald C; Evans, Steven; Januska, Jeff; Lee, Helen Y; Lewis, Sonya J; Nolan, Steve R; Noga, Mark; Stemple, Charles; Thapar, Kishan

2009-01-01

Medicare Part D was introduced with a goal of providing access to prescription drug coverage for all Medicare beneficiaries. Regulatory mandates and the changing landscape of health care require continued evaluation of the state of the Part D benefit. To review the current state of plan offerings and highlight key issues regarding the administration of the Part D benefit. The Part D drug benefit continues to evolve. The benefit value appears to be diluted compared to the benefit value of large employer plans. Regulatory restrictions mandated by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) are reported to inhibit the ability of plans to create an effective, competitive drug benefit for Medicare beneficiaries. Management in this restrictive environment impedes competitive price negotiations and formulary coverage issues continue to create confusion especially for patients with chronic diseases. The doughnut hole coverage gap represents a significant cost-shifting issue for beneficiaries that may impact medication adherence and persistence. To address these and other challenges, CMS is working to improve the quality of care for Part D beneficiaries by designing and supporting demonstration projects. Although these projects are in different stages, all stakeholders are hopeful that they will lead to the development of best practices by plans to help manage their beneficiaries more efficiently. A significant number of Medicare beneficiaries are currently receiving prescription drug benefits through Part D. The true value of this benefit has been called into question as a result of plan design parameters that lead to cost-shifting, an increasing burden for enrollees. Concerns regarding the ability to provide a competitive plan given the stringent rules and regulations have been voiced by plan administrators. In an effort to drive toward evidence-based solutions, CMS is working to improve the overall quality of care through numerous demonstration projects.

Design and preparation of scenarios for human factors studies in the HAMMLAB

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moracho, M. J.

1999-01-01

In the preparation of experiments for Human Factors studies, the scenarios play an important role. As a matter of fact, scenario effect is often demonstrated in the analysis of results. An experimental study referred to as Experiments' 97 was conducted in the Halden Man Machine LABoratory. In the design of the scenarios for this experiment, an effort was made for producing scenarios in compliance with the objectives of the study. Before the experiment simulations, scenario analysis was conducted and documented. This report presents some of the lessons learned from these activities. It also identifies main issues to be considered in the scenario characterisation and preparation. Examples of the scenarios' design document produced for the Experiments' 97 as well as examples of measure definitions for OPAS (OPerator Assessment System) and PPAS (Plant Performance System) are included in the appendixes (author) (ml)

Current Issues in the Diagnosis of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, Oppositional Defiant Disorder, and Conduct Disorder

Science.gov (United States)

Frick, Paul J.; Nigg, Joel T.

2015-01-01

This review evaluates the diagnostic criteria for three of the most common disorders for which children and adolescents are referred for mental health treatment: attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), and conduct disorder (CD). Although research supports the validity and clinical utility of these disorders, several issues are highlighted that could enhance the current diagnostic criteria. For ADHD, defining the core features of the disorder and its fit with other disorders, enhancing the validity of the criteria through the lifespan, considering alternative ways to form subtypes of the disorder, and modifying the age-of-onset criterion are discussed relative to the current diagnostic criteria. For ODD, eliminating the exclusionary criteria of CD, recognizing important symptom domains within the disorder, and using the cross-situational pervasiveness of the disorder as an index of severity are highlighted as important issues for improving classification. Finally, for CD, enhancing the current subtypes related to age of onset and integrating callous-unemotional traits into the diagnostic criteria are identified as key issues for improving classification. PMID:22035245

Current issues in the diagnosis of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, oppositional defiant disorder, and conduct disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Frick, Paul J; Nigg, Joel T

2012-01-01

This review evaluates the diagnostic criteria for three of the most common disorders for which children and adolescents are referred for mental health treatment: attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), and conduct disorder (CD). Although research supports the validity and clinical utility of these disorders, several issues are highlighted that could enhance the current diagnostic criteria. For ADHD, defining the core features of the disorder and its fit with other disorders, enhancing the validity of the criteria through the lifespan, considering alternative ways to form subtypes of the disorder, and modifying the age-of-onset criterion are discussed relative to the current diagnostic criteria. For ODD, eliminating the exclusionary criteria of CD, recognizing important symptom domains within the disorder, and using the cross-situational pervasiveness of the disorder as an index of severity are highlighted as important issues for improving classification. Finally, for CD, enhancing the current subtypes related to age of onset and integrating callous-unemotional traits into the diagnostic criteria are identified as key issues for improving classification.

MHD phenomena in advanced scenarios on ASDEX upgrade and the influence of localised electron heating and current drive

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guenter, S.; Gude, A.; Hobirk, J.; Maraschek, M.; Peeters, A.G.; Pinches, S.D.; Schade, S.; Wolf, R.C.; Saarelma, S.

2001-01-01

MHD instabilities in advanced tokamak scenarios on the one hand are favourable as they can contribute to the stationarity of the current profiles and act as a trigger for the formation of internal transport barriers. In particular fishbone oscillations driven by fast particles arising from neutral beam injection (NBI) are shown to trigger internal transport barriers in low and reversed magnetic shear discharges. During the whistling down period of the fishbone oscillation the transport is reduced around the corresponding rational surface, leading to an increased pressure gradient. This behaviour is explained by the redistribution of the resonant fast particles resulting in a sheared plasma rotation due to the return current in the bulk plasma, which is equivalent to a radial electric field. On the other hand MHD instabilities limit the accessible operating regime. Ideal and resistive MHD modes such as double tearing modes, infernal modes and external kinks degrade the confinement or even lead to disruptions in ASDEX Upgrade reversed shear discharges. Localized electron cyclotron heating and current drive is shown to significantly affect the MHD stability of this type of discharges. (author)

MHD phenomena in advanced scenarios on ASDEX Upgrade and the influence of localized electron heating and current drive

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guenter, S.; Gude, A.; Hobirk, J.; Maraschek, M.; Schade, S.; Wolf, R.C.; Saarelma, S.

2001-01-01

On the one hand, MHD instabilities in advanced tokamak scenarios are favourable as they can contribute to the stationarity of the current profiles and act as a trigger for the formation of internal transport barriers (ITBs). In particular, fishbone oscillations driven by fast particles arising from NBI are shown to trigger ITBs in low and reversed magnetic shear discharges. During the whistling down period of the fishbone oscillation the transport is reduced around the corresponding rational surface, leading to an increased pressure gradient. This behaviour could be explained by the redistribution of the resonant fast particles resulting in a sheared plasma rotation due to the return current in the bulk plasma, which is equivalent to a radial electric field. On the other hand, MHD instabilities limit the accessible operating regime. Ideal and resistive MHD modes such as double tearing modes, infernal modes and external kinks degrade the confinement or even lead to disruptions in ASDEX Upgrade reversed shear discharges. Localized electron cyclotron heating and current drive are shown to significantly affect the MHD stability of this type of discharge. (author)

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

A Study of Current Trends and Issues Related to Technical/Engineering Design Graphics.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Aaron C.; Scales Alice

2000-01-01

Presents results from a survey of engineering design graphics educators who responded to questions related to current trends and issues in the profession of graphics education. Concludes that there is a clear trend in institutions towards the teaching of constraint-based modeling and computer-aided manufacturing. (Author/YDS)

Decarbonization scenarios in the electricity sector in Vietnam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dang, Van Thanh

2016-01-01

Reduction of CO_2 emissions issue is clearly a world challenge today and COP21 highlighted the international requirements for countries to address related issues in the short and long term. The fundamental objective of the thesis is to contribute to the identification of possible climate policy solutions related to growing electricity production in a developing country, namely Vietnam, taking into account the need to reduce carbon energy sources. For this purpose several scenarios for electricity sector development are constructed in order to measure effects of choices related to the electricity production on CO_2 emissions. The thesis presents an overview of the energy situation in Vietnam and highlights the rapid increase in electricity consumption due to population pressure and new needs. It also considers major issues of coal and gas imports, new energy sources, in light of economic constraints but also environmental challenges. The theoretical and analytical chapter reviews the analyses of electricity master plans construction, major available economic tools for energy demand forecast models. This forms the framework to understanding the complexity of the 'electric bet' which Vietnam faces. After a presentation of potential quantitative simulation instruments, ELECsim was chosen for modeling the electricity sector in Vietnam. This leads to a comprehensive scenario approach; Scenarios are based on several assumptions about the evolution of economic growth and demographics, energy prices, the power generation technology development, the declared carbon value, discount rates and change rate. As a first step in energy and climate policy Vietnam can control the demand growth by strong action on energy efficiency, while reducing parallel to both the electricity production costs and CO_2 emissions. Several scenarios are then proposed, highlighting both the need to search for higher energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon energies. Research envisages a rapid

Seawater intrusion in karstic, coastal aquifers: Current challenges and future scenarios in the Taranto area (southern Italy).

Science.gov (United States)

De Filippis, Giovanna; Foglia, Laura; Giudici, Mauro; Mehl, Steffen; Margiotta, Stefano; Negri, Sergio Luigi

2016-12-15

Mediterranean areas are characterized by complex hydrogeological systems, where management of freshwater resources, mostly stored in karstic, coastal aquifers, is necessary and requires the application of numerical tools to detect and prevent deterioration of groundwater, mostly caused by overexploitation. In the Taranto area (southern Italy), the deep, karstic aquifer is the only source of freshwater and satisfies the main human activities. Preserving quantity and quality of this system through management policies is so necessary and such task can be addressed through modeling tools which take into account human impacts and the effects of climate changes. A variable-density flow model was developed with SEAWAT to depict the "current" status of the saltwater intrusion, namely the status simulated over an average hydrogeological year. Considering the goals of this analysis and the scale at which the model was built, the equivalent porous medium approach was adopted to represent the deep aquifer. The effects that different flow boundary conditions along the coast have on the transport model were assessed. Furthermore, salinity stratification occurs within a strip spreading between 4km and 7km from the coast in the deep aquifer. The model predicts a similar phenomenon for some submarine freshwater springs and modeling outcomes were positively compared with measurements found in the literature. Two scenarios were simulated to assess the effects of decreased rainfall and increased pumping on saline intrusion. Major differences in the concentration field with respect to the "current" status were found where the hydraulic conductivity of the deep aquifer is higher and such differences are higher when Dirichlet flow boundary conditions are assigned. Furthermore, the Dirichlet boundary condition along the coast for transport modeling influences the concentration field in different scenarios at shallow depths; as such, concentration values simulated under stressed conditions

Preface. Current Issues in Ethics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Holy-Luczaj Magdalena

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This interdisciplinary volume consist of papers on various problems in contemporary ethics. It presents the following issues: equalizing the level of positive liberty, the phenomenon of human cooperation, ethical questions related to artificial intelligence, extending ethical obligations toward artifacts, and soteriological threads of alienation criticism of religion.

An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2004-10-01

The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2

The treatment of Parkinson′s disease with deep brain stimulation: current issues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexia-Sabine Moldovan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Deep brain stimulation has become a well-established symptomatic treatment for Parkinson′s disease during the last 25 years. Besides improving motor symptoms and long-term motor complications, positive effects on patients′ mobility, activities of daily living, emotional well-being and health-related quality of life have been recognized. Apart from that, numerous clinical trials analyzed effects on non-motor symptoms and side effects of deep brain stimulation. Several technical issues and stimulation paradigms have been and are still being developed to optimize the therapeutic effects, minimize the side effects and facilitate handling. This review summarizes current therapeutic issues, i.e., patient and target selection, surgical procedure and programming paradigms. In addition it focuses on neuropsychological effects and side effects of deep brain stimulation.

Analysis of the Current Technical Issues on ASME Code and Standard for Nuclear Mechanical Design(2009)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koo, Gyeong Hoi; Lee, B. S.; Yoo, S. H.

2009-11-01

This report describes the analysis on the current revision movement related to the mechanical design issues of the U.S ASME nuclear code and standard. ASME nuclear mechanical design in this report is composed of the nuclear material, primary system, secondary system and high temperature reactor. This report includes the countermeasures based on the ASME Code meeting for current issues of each major field. KAMC(ASME Mirror Committee) of this project is willing to reflect a standpoint of the domestic nuclear industry on ASME nuclear mechanical design and play a technical bridge role for the domestic nuclear industry in ASME Codes application

Analysis of the Current Technical Issues on ASME Code and Standard for Nuclear Mechanical Design(2009)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koo, Gyeong Hoi; Lee, B. S.; Yoo, S. H.

2009-11-15

This report describes the analysis on the current revision movement related to the mechanical design issues of the U.S ASME nuclear code and standard. ASME nuclear mechanical design in this report is composed of the nuclear material, primary system, secondary system and high temperature reactor. This report includes the countermeasures based on the ASME Code meeting for current issues of each major field. KAMC(ASME Mirror Committee) of this project is willing to reflect a standpoint of the domestic nuclear industry on ASME nuclear mechanical design and play a technical bridge role for the domestic nuclear industry in ASME Codes application

Current Issues and Distributive Justice.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosal, Lorenca Consuelo

1992-01-01

Provides a lesson plan on the issue of distributive justice, or fairness in the ways things are distributed among individuals and groups. Includes a student reading concerning a proposed guaranteed standard of living. Proposes an activity that calls for student discussion of a constitutional amendment that would offer such a guarantee. (SG)

Current Issues with Environmental Barrier Coatings for Ceramics and Ceramic Composites

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kang N.

2004-01-01

The environmental barrier coating (EBC) for SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composites and Si3N4 ceramics is an emerging field as the application of silicon-based ceramics in the gas turbine engine hot section is on the horizon, both for aero and industrial gas turbines. EBC is an enabling technology for silicon-based ceramics because these materials without an EBC cannot be used in combustion environments due to rapid surface recession. Significant progress in EBC development has been made during the last decade through various government-sponsored programs. Current EBCs are based on silicon, mullite (3Al2O3-2SiO2) and BSAS (barium strontium aluminum silicate with celsian structure). Volatility of BSAS, BSAS-silica chemical reaction, and low melting point of silicon limit temperature capability of current EBCs to about 1350 C for long-term applications. There is a need for higher temperature EBCs as the temperature capability of silicon-based ceramics continue to increase. Therefore, research is underway to develop EBCs with improved temperature capability compared to current EBCs. The current status and issues with the advanced EBC development efforts will be discussed.

Challenges and opportunities of international biomass market: Findings from a scenario study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heinimoe, J. (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Mikkeli (Finland)); Ojanen, V.; Koessi, T. (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Lappeenranta (Finland))

2007-07-01

The markets of biomass are developing rapidly and becoming more international. Although biomass has potential to become a more important source of energy, the remarkable increase in biomass use for energy needs parallel and positive development in several sectors and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. To support the positive development of market and to make the most of the development it is needed to have understanding about the market dynamics. The objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020 and based on the scenario process to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. A heuristic semi structured approach was applied in the scenario processes. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The scenario analysis shows the key issues on the field: global economic growth including the growing need of energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of the technological development to solve the global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for the global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. (orig.)

Energy and the Presidential elections: deciphering reports and scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marignac, Yves; Dessus, Benjamin; Laponche, Bernard; Ruedinger, Andreas; Marquet, Andre; Zerbib, Jean-Claude; Quetel, Ghislain; Guillemette, Andre

2012-03-01

After a comment of the Fukushima accident and its implications for nuclear energy, this issue proposes a critical review of various reports and scenarios on energy perspectives: a report by the ASN on 'Complementary safety assessments' (critical analysis of these assessments, weaknesses of the ASN analysis), a report by the French Court of Audit or 'Cour des Comptes' (past, current and future expenses, assets), the Commission Energies 2050 study (on the Europeans and world energy context, on the future on the French energy mix), a study by the French Union of Electricity (Electricity 2030: which choices for France?), a note by the CEA on the assessment of phasing out nuclear. Additional contributions propose a discussion of costs and conditions of phasing out nuclear, and a presentation of La Hague pools (their design, their management, their ability to withstand earthquakes, their other safety criteria)

New reactors concepts and scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gandini, A.

2001-01-01

In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

Multiobjective optimization for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios using COSI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Freynet David

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The consequences of various fleet evolution options on material inventories and flux in fuel cycle and waste can be analysed by means of transition scenario studies. The COSI code is currently simulating chronologically scenarios whose parameters are fully defined by the user and is coupled with the CESAR depletion code. As the interactions among reactors and fuel cycle facilities can be complex, and the ways in which they may be configured are many, the development of optimization methodology could improve scenario studies. The optimization problem definition needs to list: (i criteria (e.g. saving natural resources and minimizing waste production; (ii variables (scenario parameters related to reprocessing, reactor operation, installed power distribution, etc.; (iii constraints making scenarios industrially feasible. The large number of scenario calculations needed to solve an optimization problem can be time-consuming and hardly achievable; therefore, it requires the shortening of the COSI computation time. Given that CESAR depletion calculations represent about 95% of this computation time, CESAR surrogate models have been developed and coupled with COSI. Different regression models are compared to estimate CESAR outputs: first- and second-order polynomial regressions, Gaussian process and artificial neural network. This paper is about a first optimization study of a transition scenario from the current French nuclear fleet to a Sodium Fast Reactors fleet as defined in the frame of the 2006 French Act for waste management. The present article deals with obtaining the optimal scenarios and validating the methodology implemented, i.e. the coupling between the simulation software COSI, depletion surrogate models and a genetic algorithm optimization method.

US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

2011-10-01

This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

Developing scenarios for the Norwegian travel industry 2025

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anniken Enger

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications. Findings – The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan. Practical implications – The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined. Originality/value – The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

Contrasting Impact of Future CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Extent of CaCO3 Mineral Undersaturation in the Humboldt Current System

Science.gov (United States)

Franco, A. C.; Gruber, N.; Frölicher, T. L.; Kropuenske Artman, L.

2018-03-01

The eastern boundary upwelling systems are among those regions that are most vulnerable to an ocean acidification-induced transition toward undersaturated conditions with respect to mineral CaCO3, but no assessment exists yet for the Humboldt Current System. Here we use a high-resolution (˜7.5 km) regional ocean model to investigate past and future changes in ocean pH and CaCO3 saturation state in this system. We find that within the next few decades, the nearshore waters off Peru are projected to become corrosive year round with regard to aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. The volume of aragonite undersaturated water off Peru will continue to increase in the future irrespective of the amount of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere. In contrast, the development of the saturation state with regard to calcite, a less soluble form of carbonate, depends strongly on the scenario followed. By 2050, calcite undersaturation appears in the nearshore waters off Peru occasionally, but by 2090 in a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), ˜60% of the water in the euphotic zone will become permanently calcite undersaturated. Most of this calcite undersaturation off Peru can likely be avoided if a low emission scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Paris Agreement is followed. The progression of ocean acidification off Chile follows a similar pattern, except that the saturation states are overall higher. But also here, calcite undersaturated waters will become common in the subsurface waters under the RCP8.5 scenario by the end of this century, while this can be avoided under the RCP2.6 scenario.

Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

1998-01-01

This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

Security Implications of Typical Grid Computing Usage Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Humphrey, Marty; Thompson, Mary R.

2001-01-01

A Computational Grid is a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Computational Grid, each with unique security requirements and implications for both the resource user and the resource provider. A comprehensive set of Grid usage scenarios are presented and analyzed with regard to security requirements such as authentication, authorization, integrity, and confidentiality. The main value of these scenarios and the associated security discussions are to provide a library of situations against which an application designer can match, thereby facilitating security-aware application use and development from the initial stages of the application design and invocation. A broader goal of these scenarios are to increase the awareness of security issues in Grid Computing

Security Implications of Typical Grid Computing Usage Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Humphrey, Marty; Thompson, Mary R.

2001-06-05

A Computational Grid is a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Computational Grid, each with unique security requirements and implications for both the resource user and the resource provider. A comprehensive set of Grid usage scenarios are presented and analyzed with regard to security requirements such as authentication, authorization, integrity, and confidentiality. The main value of these scenarios and the associated security discussions are to provide a library of situations against which an application designer can match, thereby facilitating security-aware application use and development from the initial stages of the application design and invocation. A broader goal of these scenarios are to increase the awareness of security issues in Grid Computing.

Current issues regarding radiation risk education in Medical Universities of Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsuzuki, Teruhisa; Hosoi, Yoshio; Matsuda, Naoki; Kanda, Reiko; Hosoya, Noriko; Miyagawa, Kiyoshi; Awai, Kazuo; Kondo, Takashi

2017-01-01

The main purpose of radiation research is to understand the biological effects of radiation exposure to humans, the molecular mechanisms of biological response m organisms, and its sale application for medical and industrial use. In order to know the current state or education on fundamentals of radiology including radiation biology, a nation-wide questionnaire survey had been performed at medical schools and different co-medical courses in Japanese universities, during the period of 2004 and 2005. The survey results showed: (1) Difference in teaching hours for education on radiation between medical schools with and without department or division of radiation biology or radiation-related field. (2) Teaching hours for education on radiation in nursing course were very limited among the co-medical courses. Although, some improvement have been found about the state of education on radiation risk at medical schools, after the disaster of nuclear accident at Fukushima No.1 Nuclear Power Plant of TEPCO in March 2011. However, still much more effort t is needed to improve basic education on radiation. Science Council of Japan issued the recommendation on September 4, 2014 'Making radiation health risk education compulsory in medical education'. The working group for this purpose was set up under the Council of Head of National Medical Schools of Japan, on January 28, 2015. Here, we describe the details and current issues regarding radiation risk education in medical schools of Japan, as well as the efforts required for its betterment. (author)

An economic evaluation of alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gbadebo Oladosu

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Energy market conditions have shifted dramatically since the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS1 in 2005; RFS2 in 2007 were enacted. The USA has transitioned from an increasing dependence on oil imports to abundant domestic oil production. In addition, increases in the use of ethanol, the main biofuel currently produced in the USA, is now limited by the blend wall constraint. Given this, the current study evaluates alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA, accounting for changes in market conditions. The analysis is performed with a general equilibrium model that reflects the structure of the USA biofuel market as the transition to advanced biofuels begins. Results suggest that ethanol consumption would increase, albeit slowly, if current biofuel deployment rates of about 10% are maintained as persistently lower oil prices lead to a gradual increase in the consumption of liquid transportation fuels. Without the blend wall constraint, this study finds that the overall economic impact of a full implementation of the USA RFS2 policy is largely neutral before 2022. However, the economic impacts become slightly negative under the blend wall constraint since more expensive bio-hydrocarbons are needed to meet the RFS2 mandates. Results for a scenario with reduced advanced biofuel deployment based on current policy plans show near neutral economic impacts up to 2027. This scenario is also consistent with another scenario where the volume of bio-hydrocarbons deployed is reduced to adjust for its higher cost and energy content relative to deploying the mandated RFS2 advanced biofuel volumes as ethanol. The important role of technological change is demonstrated under pioneer and accelerated technology scenarios, with the latter leading to neutral or positive economic effects up to 2023 under most blend wall scenarios. All scenarios evaluated in this study are found to have positive long-term benefits for the USA economy.

Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

2016-06-01

The stakes of embarking upon a Mediterranean Energy Transition is essential for countries from both shores of the Mediterranean, especially taking into account the increasing demographics (+105 million by 2040) and the fast growing energy demand in an increasingly constrained context both in terms of energy availability and environmental impacts of conventional energy sources uses. There is a huge, but yet untapped, potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially in the South Mediterranean region. By improving energy efficiency and deploying renewables on a large scale, the Mediterranean region would reduce tensions on energy security for importing countries, improve opportunities for exporting ones and reduce energy costs and environmental damages for the whole region. Embarking on an energy transition path will also help improve social welfare in the region and contribute to job creation, among other positive externalities. OME regularly conducts prospective works to 2040, assessing the impact of prolonging current energy trends. Under this Business-As-Usual or so-called 'Conservative' Scenario the situation would evolve critically on all counts over the next 25 years: doubling of energy demand and tripling of electricity consumption, soaring infrastructure and import bills (+443 GW to be installed and doubling of the fossil-fuel imports) and a critical rise in carbon emissions (+45%). Such a scenario, based essentially on fossil fuels, would put further strain on the environment and exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region. A change of energy trajectory is therefore necessary for all Mediterranean countries to help change current trends and to increase efforts promoting energy efficiency and renewable energies. In this context, MEDENER and OME, based on the 2030-2050 visions of ADEME and the prospective tools of OME, have decided to jointly investigate a Mediterranean Energy Transition Scenario, an ambitious scenario that

Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Øjvind

2016-01-01

This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

Interpersonal Relationships, Motivation, Engagement, and Achievement: Yields for Theory, Current Issues, and Educational Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Andrew J.; Dowson, Martin

2009-01-01

In this review, we scope the role of interpersonal relationships in students' academic motivation, engagement, and achievement. We argue that achievement motivation theory, current issues, and educational practice can be conceptualized in relational terms. Influential theorizing, including attribution theory, expectancy-value theory, goal theory,…

Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

1978-03-01

This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

RADIOFREQUENCY IDENTIFICATION CURRENT AND PROSPECTIVE SCENARIO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Félix Larrañaga

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Radio Frequency Identification Technology (RFID that arose from World War II developments has become one of the most attractive management tools to the business environment yet has faced scarce current applicability. This study analyses the opinion of specialists engaged in the industry, trade and logistics management of diverse economic segments with views to presenting an amplified perspective of this technologies current and future behaviour, as well as its inclusion within the corporate environment. The subject matter of choice derives from the author’s personal curiosity, as leveraged by numerous publications that failed to reveal coincidental opinions and operational approaches concerning the use of this technology. This seems to have found ground given the lack of technical knowledge within both the business community and the public in general and, undoubtedly, considering its high implementation costs.  The research, of bibliographical nature, concludes that effectively there are favourable and unfavourable opinions concerning this technology’s application at the surveyed industries and organizations, although most acknowledge its high potential business management efficiency and effectiveness. It is understood that only a favourable evolution of economic activities will promote the necessary investments and drive players into furthering in-depth studies concerning the varied RFID possibilities in addition to analysing the strategic convenience of its application. Key-words:  RFID. Logistics. Strategic Management. Supply Chains.

Water Resources Management and Hydrologic Design Under Uncertain Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teegavarapu, R. S.

2008-05-01

The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of water resource systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Many water resources managers currently rely on the historical hydrological data and adaptive real-time operations without consideration of the impact of climate change on major inputs influencing the behavior of hydrologic systems and the operating rules. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. However, water resources management with the decision maker's preferences attached to climate change has never been dealt with. This presentation discusses issues related to impacts of climate change on water resources management and application of a soft-computing approach, fuzzy set theory, for climate-sensitive management of water resources systems. A real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of soft-computing approach for handling the decision maker's preferences in accepting or rejecting the magnitude and direction of climate change.

Current trends in research and clinical issues in the study of personality and its disorders

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simonsen, Erik; Sørensen, Per; Pedersen, Liselotte

2014-01-01

lecture (Simonsen), a young researchers' symposium (Hopwood, Sharp, and Kaess), and special lectures on the Danish philosopher Soeren Kierkegaard and the poet Hans Christian Andersen. In this article we will survey the presentations and highlight the important issues in order to underline the current......The International Society for the Study of Personality Disorders (ISSPD) celebrated its 25th anniversary in September 2013 in Copenhagen and commemorated the First International Congress at the same site. The overall theme of the congress was "Bridging Personality and Psychopathology: The Person...... Behind the Illness." More than 400 abstracts were submitted, and the program included 8 keynote presentations, 18 invited symposia, a debate on current controversial issues in the classification of personality disorders (Fossati, Tyrer, Livesley, and Krueger), an ISSPD award lecture (Silk), a jubilee...

Development of the Role Scenario of the Personnel Management Specialist Activity

OpenAIRE

Stolyaruk Khrystyna S.

2013-01-01

The article is devoted of the issues of development of classification and content of role, which are performed by personnel management specialists in their professional activity. It proves a necessity of development of role scenarios under conditions of application of the competence approach in training and practical activity. Thus, the author offers five key roles in activity of a personnel management specialist, which reflect different vectors of directions of the scenario of professional a...

TIBER engineering test reactor (ETR) startup scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blackfield, D.T.; Perkins, L.J.

1987-01-01

A time-dependent Tokamak Systems Code (TTSC) has been developed and used to examine various inductively driven startup scenarios for the TIBER reactor. Radially averaged particle and energy balance equations are solved. In addition, time varying currents in the PF and OH coils are determined from MHD equilibrium and volt-seconds considerations. Less than 20 MW of auxiliary power deposited in the electrons is required to obtain steady-state operations. For this scenario, less than 10% of the total volt-seconds capability is consumed during startup and the currents in the PF and OH coils do not appear to exceed stress limits. For every volt-second saved during startup, the burn time can be extended 14 seconds. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Palladino, Danilo M; Pappalardo, Lucia; Rossano, Sergio

2017-01-01

The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy) poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (hereon PCs; acronym for Pyroclastic Currents) ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps are incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PCs in case of a PC-forming explosive event) and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PCs from VEIextreme event) would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and the city of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity at Campi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanic hazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the present level of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and location (essentially based on statistical analysis of previous activity), we suggest that appropriate planning measures should face at least the VEI 5 reference scenario (at least 2 occurrences documented in the last 10 ka).

Role of the lower hybrid spectrum in the current drive modeling for DEMO scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Cardinali, A.; Castaldo, C.; Cesario, R.; Santini, F.; Amicucci, L.; Ceccuzzi, S.; Galli, A.; Mirizzi, F.; Napoli, F.; Panaccione, L.; Schettini, G.; Tuccillo, A. A.

2017-07-01

The active control of the radial current density profile is one of the major issues of thermonuclear fusion energy research based on magnetic confinement. The lower hybrid current drive could in principle be used as an efficient tool. However, previous understanding considered the electron temperature envisaged in a reactor at the plasma periphery too large to allow penetration of the coupled radio frequency (RF) power due to strong Landau damping. In this work, we present new numerical results based on quasilinear theory, showing that the injection of power spectra with different {n}// widths of the main lobe produce an RF-driven current density profile spanning most of the outer radial half of the plasma ({n}// is the refractive index in a parallel direction to the confinement magnetic field). Plasma kinetic profiles envisaged for the DEMO reactor are used as references. We demonstrate the robustness of the modeling results concerning the key role of the spectral width in determining the lower hybrid-driven current density profile. Scans of plasma parameters are extensively carried out with the aim of excluding the possibility that any artefact of the utilised numerical modeling would produce any novelty. We neglect here the parasitic effect of spectral broadening produced by linear scattering due to plasma density fluctuations, which mainly occurs for low magnetic field devices. This effect will be analyzed in other work that completes the report on the present breakthrough.

Regional Issue Identification and Assessment program (RIIA). Environmental impacts and issues of the EIA MID-MID scenario: Federal Region I (New England)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brainard, J.; Munson, J.S.

1979-01-01

The impacts described here for 1985 and 1990 are based on a national energy projection which assumes medium energy demand and fuel supply through 1990 but does not incorporate the policies of the National Energy Act (NEA). This scenario, referred to as the Projection Series C or the TRENDLONG MID-MID scenario, is one of six possible energy futures developed by the DOE Energy Information Administration for the Department's 1977 Annual Report to Congress. It was chosen as representative of the official DOE national energy projections when this project was initiated, prior to the passage of the National Energy Act. Since the RIIA program is part of an ongoing review of the regional impact of energy policies, the next phase will examine the National Energy Act (NEA) and initiatives suggested by the President's second National Energy Plan. However, since coal utilization increases under the NEA, in general, impacts identified in the TRENDLONG Series C Scenario should provide a framework for the discussion of impacts by NEA. The environmental impacts discussed in this volume are for Federal Region I (Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut). However, there are nine companion volumes, one for each of the other Federal Regions

Controversies in the Hydrosphere: an iBook exploring current global water issues for middle school classrooms

Science.gov (United States)

Dufoe, A.; Guertin, L. A.

2012-12-01

This project looks to help teachers utilize iPad technology in their classrooms as an instructional tool for Earth system science and connections to the Big Ideas in Earth Science. The project is part of Penn State University's National Science Foundation (NSF) Targeted Math Science Partnership grant, with one goal of the grant to help current middle school teachers across Pennsylvania engage students with significant and complex questions of Earth science. The free Apple software iBooks Author was used to create an electronic book for the iPad, focusing on a variety of controversial issues impacting the hydrosphere. The iBook includes image slideshows, embedded videos, interactive images and quizzes, and critical thinking questions along Bloom's Taxonomic Scale of Learning Objectives. Outlined in the introductory iBook chapters are the Big Ideas of Earth System Science and an overview of Earth's spheres. Since the book targets the hydrosphere, each subsequent chapter focuses on specific water issues, including glacial melts, aquifer depletion, coastal oil pollution, marine debris, and fresh-water chemical contamination. Each chapter is presented in a case study format that highlights the history of the issue, the development and current status of the issue, and some solutions that have been generated. The next section includes critical thinking questions in an open-ended discussion format that focus on the Big Ideas, proposing solutions for rectifying the situation, and/or assignments specifically targeting an idea presented in the case study chapter. Short, comprehensive multiple-choice quizzes are also in each chapter. Throughout the iBook, students are free to watch videos, explore the content and form their own opinions. As a result, this iBook fulfills the grant objective by engaging teachers and students with an innovative technological presentation that incorporates Earth system science with current case studies regarding global water issues.

ITER-FEAT magnetic configuration and plasma position/shape control in the nominal PF scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gribov, Y.V.; Albanese, R.; Ambrosino, G.

2001-01-01

The capability of the ITER-FEAT poloidal field system to support the four 'design' scenarios and the high current 'assessed' scenario have been studied. To operate with highly elongated plasma, the system has segmentation of the central solenoid and a separate fast feedback loop for plasma vertical stabilisation. Within the limits imposed on the coil currents, voltages and power, the poloidal field system provides the required plasma scenario and control capabilities. The separatrix deviation from the required position, in scenarios with minor disruptions is within less than about 100 mm. (author)

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

Current issues in onychomycosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Trépanier, E F; Amsden, G W

1998-02-01

To review the epidemiology, mycology, clinical features and diagnosis, current pharmacotherapy, and pharmacoeconomics of onychomycosis. We conducted a MEDLINE search from 1966 to May 1997. References from these articles, manufacturers of the discussed antimycotics, and relevant abstracts from recent dermatology conferences were used to collect pertinent data. Data were obtained from published controlled studies and case reports. In the pharmacotherapy section, the most weight was placed on fully reported, randomized, controlled comparative trials, but abstracts and case series were included when well-controlled studies were unavailable. Onychomycosis is a common nail disorder that has a substantial impact on patients' quality of life. It is most commonly caused by dermatophytes, but yeasts and molds can also be involved. Diagnosis is made through clinical presentation, potassium hydroxide preparations, and culture of tissue/nail samples. Griseofulvin was the drug of choice for many years, but its low cure rates and the development of newer, more effective drugs made it fall out of favor. Current therapeutic alternatives include fluconazole, itraconazole, and terbinafine. Data on the use of fluconazole are limited to case series and reports. Continuous dosing of itraconazole and terbinafine are well-proven therapies. New data are becoming available on the use of pulse itraconazole dosing, which has recently been approved by the Food and Drug Administration for fingernail infections. These drugs are well tolerated, but attention to drug interactions is necessary with the azoles. Currently, continuous terbinafine appears to be the most cost-effective drug for dermatophyte onychomycosis.

Clopidogrel Resistance: Current Issues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NS Neki

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Antiplatelet agents are mainly used in the prevention and management of atherothrombotic complications. Dual antiplatelet therapy, combining aspirin and clopidogrel, is the standard care for patients having acute coronary syndromes or undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention according to the current ACC/AHA and ESC guidelines. But in spite of administration of dual antiplatelet therapy, some patients develop recurrent cardiovascular ischemic events especially stent thrombosis which is a serious clinical problem. Antiplatelet response to clopidogrel varies widely among patients based on ex vivo platelet function measurements. Clopidogrel is an effective inhibitor of platelet activation and aggregation due to its selective and irreversible blockade of the P2Y12 receptor. Patients who display little attenuation of platelet reactivity with clopidogrel therapy are labeled as low or nonresponders or clopidogrel resistant. The mechanism of clopidogrel resistance remains incompletely defined but there are certain clinical, cellular and genetic factors including polymorphisms responsible for therapeutic failure. Currently there is no standardized or widely accepted definition of clopidogrel resistance. The future may soon be realised in the routine measurement of platelet activity in the same way that blood pressure, cholesterol and blood sugar are followed to help guide the therapy, thus improving the care for millions of people. This review focuses on the methods used to identify patients with clopidogrel resistance, the underlying mechanisms, metabolism, clinical significance and current therapeutic strategies to overcome clopidogrel resistance. J Enam Med Col 2016; 6(1: 38-46

Postprocessing of Accidental Scenarios by Semi-Supervised Self-Organizing Maps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Di Maio

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis (IDPSA of dynamic systems calls for the development of efficient methods for accidental scenarios generation. The necessary consideration of failure events timing and sequencing along the scenarios requires the number of scenarios to be generated to increase with respect to conventional PSA. Consequently, their postprocessing for retrieving safety relevant information regarding the system behavior is challenged because of the large amount of generated scenarios that makes the computational cost for scenario postprocessing enormous and the retrieved information difficult to interpret. In the context of IDPSA, the interpretation consists in the classification of the generated scenarios as safe, failed, Near Misses (NMs, and Prime Implicants (PIs. To address this issue, in this paper we propose the use of an ensemble of Semi-Supervised Self-Organizing Maps (SSSOMs whose outcomes are combined by a locally weighted aggregation according to two strategies: a locally weighted aggregation and a decision tree based aggregation. In the former, we resort to the Local Fusion (LF principle for accounting the classification reliability of the different SSSOM classifiers, whereas in the latter we build a classification scheme to select the appropriate classifier (or ensemble of classifiers, for the type of scenario to be classified. The two strategies are applied for the postprocessing of the accidental scenarios of a dynamic U-Tube Steam Generator (UTSG.

Uncertainties in Amazon Hydropower Development: Risk Scenarios and Environmental Issues around the Belo Monte Dam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wilson Cabral de Sousa Júnior

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The Amazon region is the final frontier and central focus of Brazilian hydro development, which raises a range of environmental concerns. The largest project in the Amazon is the planned Belo Monte Complex on the Xingu river. If constructed it will be the second biggest hydroelectric plant in Brazil, third largest on earth. In this study, we analyse the private and social costs, and benefits of the Belo Monte project. Furthermore, we present risk scenarios, considering fluctuations in the project’s feasibility that would result from variations in total costs and power. For our analysis, we create three scenarios. In the first scenario Belo Monte appears feasible, with a net present value (NPV in the range of US$670 million and a rate of return in excess of the 12% discount rate used in this analysis. The second scenario, where we varied some of the project costs and assumptions based on other economic estimates, shows the project to be infeasible, with a negative NPV of about US$3 billion and external costs around US$330 million. We also conducted a risk analysis, allowing variation in several of the parameters most important to the project’s feasibility. The simulations brought together the risks of cost overruns, construction delays, lower-than-expected generation and rising social costs. The probability of a positive NPV in these circumstances was calculated to be just 28%, or there is a 72% chance that the costs of the Belo Monte dam will be greater than the benefits. Several WCD recommendations are not considered in the project, especially those related to transparency, social participation in the discussion, economic analysis and risk assessment, and licensing of the project. This study underscores the importance of forming a participatory consensus, based on clear, objective information, on whether or not to build the Belo Monte dam.

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Special Issue: Current Trends in Research in Accounting Finance and Management Control

OpenAIRE

Lassala, Carlos; Ripoll Feliu, Vicente

2017-01-01

On January 27, 2016, an agreement was signed with OmniaScience to select articles to be published in the journal Intangible Capital, in a special issue titled "Current Trends in Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Control." The agreement was reached within the framework of three events at the University of Valencia, from June 27 to 30, 2016: XXI Workshop on Accounting and Management Control. “Memorial Raymond Konopka”, X Iberoamerican Congress of Management Accounting, III  Int...

Issues in neutral currents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sehgal, L.M.

1980-01-01

The experimental results on low energy confirming the structure of the effective Lagrangian of the weak neutral current processes as predicted by the Salam-Weinberg model are reviewed. Some possible modifications of the effective Lagrangian and the feasibility of their experimental verification are also considered. (P.L.)

The Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Nan; Lin, Jiang

2007-08-01

While China's 11th Five Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity by 2010, whether and how the energy consumption trend can be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. This research intends to evaluate the impact of a variety of scenarios of GDP growth, energy elasticity and energy efficiency improvement on energy consumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-use Energy Model. China's official energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end use. This is a particularly pertinent issue for building energy consumption. The authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experience of working on Chinese efficiency standards and energy related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of the current energy data. The bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end use intensity, equipment efficiency, etc., thus facilitating assessment of potential impacts of specific policy and technology changes on building energy use. The results suggest that: (1) commercial energy consumption in China's current statistics is underestimated by about 44%, and the fuel mix is misleading; (2) energy efficiency improvements will not be sufficient to offset the strong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings; (3) energy intensity (particularly electricity) in commercial buildings will increase; (4) different GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to a wide range of floor area growth trajectories , and therefore, significantly impact energy consumption in commercial buildings.

Study of Security Attributes of Smart Grid Systems- Current Cyber Security Issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wayne F. Boyer; Scott A. McBride

2009-04-01

This document provides information for a report to congress on Smart Grid security as required by Section 1309 of Title XIII of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The security of any future Smart Grid is dependent on successfully addressing the cyber security issues associated with the nation’s current power grid. Smart Grid will utilize numerous legacy systems and technologies that are currently installed. Therefore, known vulnerabilities in these legacy systems must be remediated and associated risks mitigated in order to increase the security and success of the Smart Grid. The implementation of Smart Grid will include the deployment of many new technologies and multiple communication infrastructures. This report describes the main technologies that support Smart Grid and summarizes the status of implementation into the existing U.S. electrical infrastructure.

Current issues and perspectives in food safety and risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Eisenbrand, G

2015-12-01

In this review, current issues and opportunities in food safety assessment are discussed. Food safety is considered an essential element inherent in global food security. Hazard characterization is pivotal within the continuum of risk assessment, but it may be conceived only within a very limited frame as a true alternative to risk assessment. Elucidation of the mode of action underlying a given hazard is vital to create a plausible basis for human toxicology evaluation. Risk assessment, to convey meaningful risk communication, must be based on appropriate and reliable consideration of both exposure and mode of action. New perspectives, provided by monitoring human exogenous and endogenous exposure biomarkers, are considered of great promise to support classical risk extrapolation from animal toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

Scenarios for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

1995-06-01

This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

Indian Adolescent Living with HIV-AIDS: Current Clinical Scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Joshi, Kavita S; Bhaware, Bhushan D; Pazare, Amar R

2017-07-01

Statistics suggest that, HIV has now largely become the disease of young patients. Hence, the adolescent HIV/AIDS needs to be handled and managed separately from adult HIV. Relatively fewer Indian data exist to characterize the associations in adolescents and young adults infected with HIV disease. The present study explores the current challenges in the management of HIV infected adolescents. The study was aimed at evaluating, relationship between CD4 count and duration of antiretroviral therapy (ART), effects of ART on body mass index and the adverse effects of antiretroviral drugs in adolescent HIV positive patients. This was a cross-sectional study involving 60 HIV positive adolescent patients attending tertiary care Institute KEM Hospital, Parel over duration of one year conducted at Mumbai. Patients on ART between age group 12 to 19 years. ART naïve patients were excluded from the study. 60 adolescent HIV positive patients attended our OPD including 37 males (61.67%) and 23 females (38.33%).The most common mode of transmission was vertical (80%). Education level was: school dropouts - 15%, primary education - 30%, Completed SSC - 31.7%, higher secondary - 23%. Among ADRs were 12 (63.15%) cases of anaemia due to Zidovudine, 4 (21.05%) hepatitis due to Nevirapine, 2 (10.52%) Tenofovir induced AKI and 1 (5.26%) Nevirapine rash. Wilcoxon matched pairs test showed a highly significant increase in the BMI (p ART under government programme has increased the duration of survival of the adolescent population with HIV. Treatment with HAART showed a favourable response with a statistical significant increase in CD4 count. Longer the duration of HAART, higher was the gain in CD4 count. Indian adolescent receiving long term ART, Lipodystrophy is not a troubling issue. Indian adolescent seems to be more tolerance of ART than the other parts of world.

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Implementation issues on the design of current loops based on resonant regulators for isolated microgrids

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Federico, de Bosio; Pastorelli, Michele; Antonio DeSouza Ribeiro, Luiz

2016-01-01

This paper analyzes the influence of state feedback coupling between the capacitor voltage and inductor current in voltage source inverters (VSI) operating in stand-alone microgrids. A decoupling technique is proposed as an effective measure to enhance the dynamics. Further implementation issues ...

Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

Science.gov (United States)

Norman, Laura M.; Feller, Mark; Villarreal, Miguel L.

2012-01-01

The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

Scenario Development Workshop Synopsis. Integration Group for the Safety Case - June 2015

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Paul; Voinis, Sylvie; Griffault, Lise; De Meredieu, Jean; Kwong, Gloria; ); Van Luik, Abraham; Bailey, Lucy; Capouet, Manuel; Depaus, Christophe; Makino, Hitoshi; Leigh, Christi; Kirkes, Ross; Leino, Jaakko; Niemeyer, Matthias; Wolf, Jens; Watson, Sarah; Franke, Bettina; Ilett, Doug; Pastina, Barbara; Weetjens, Eef

2016-03-01

Scenario development and selection describes the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information relevant to the potential paths of evolution of a radioactive waste disposal facility (repository) that is necessary to assess its long-term performance and safety. In 1999, the NEA held its first workshop on scenario development in Madrid, Spain, with the objective to review the methods for developing scenarios in safety assessments and their application. Since then, the process of scenario development and analysis for the disposal of radioactive waste has changed and, in 2015, the NEA Integration Group for the Safety Case (IGSC) held a second workshop on this topic at its offices in Paris to further evaluate the experience acquired in developing scenarios since 1999. To prepare for this workshop, the IGSC also launched a survey in 2014 to gather the latest scenario development and uncertainty management strategies used in IGSC member countries. The purposes of the workshop were to (i) provide a forum to review and discuss methods for scenario development and their contribution to the development of recent safety cases (since the 1999 workshop); (ii) examine the latest methods and compare their scope, consistency and function within the overall safety assessment process, based on practical experience of applications; and (iii) provide a basis for producing the present report summarising the current status of scenario methodologies, identifying where sufficient methods exist and any outstanding problem areas. This report provides an overview of the state of the art in scenario development related to the long-term safety of geological repositories for radioactive waste. In particular, it discusses how potential scenarios are developed in safety assessments of radioactive waste that contains long-lived radionuclides. Safety assessment is the process of quantitatively and qualitatively evaluating the safety of a repository, often in support of a

NegaWatt 2011-2050 scenario - Hypotheses and method. Technical report, May 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-05-01

This report proposes an analysis of the negaWatt 2011 scenario. It describes in detail the methodology adopted to elaborate this prospective scenario, and presents the major part of the hypotheses which structure this scenario. A first part presents the approach and methodology (constraints, scenario, model). The second part addresses the issue of energy saving and energy efficiency through a sector-based analysis (housing and office building, transports, industrial and agricultural production). The third part studies the substitution by renewable energies through a supply analysis: energy production based on biomass, renewable energies, and fissile and fossil energies. It outlines the major role of grids in the supply-demand balance. The results of the negaWatt 2011 scenario are presented in terms of final energy, primary energies, and impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses and results related to the different sectors (building, transports, industry and agriculture, energy production) are given in appendix

Economic and environmental assessment of cellulosic ethanol production scenarios annexed to a typical sugar mill.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

2017-01-01

In this work different biorefinery scenarios were investigated, concerning the co-production of bioethanol and electricity from available lignocellulose at a typical sugar mill, as possible extensions to the current combustion of bagasse for steam and electricity production and burning trash on-filed. In scenario 1, the whole bagasse and brown leaves is utilized in a biorefinery and coal is burnt in the existing inefficient sugar mill boiler. Scenario 2 & 3 are assumed with a new centralized CHP unit without/with coal co-combustion, respectively. Also, through scenarios 4 & 5, the effect of water insoluble loading were studied. All scenarios provided energy for the sugarmill and the ethanol plant, with the export of surplus electricity. Economic analysis determined that scenario 1 was the most viable scenario due to less capital cost and economies-of scale. Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results, scenario 2 outperformed the other scenarios, while three scenarios showed lower contribution to environmental burdens than the current situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Reference Scenarios for the Swiss Emergency Planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanspeter Isaak; Navert, Stephan B.; Ralph Schulz

2006-01-01

For the purpose of emergency planning and preparedness, realistic reference scenarios and corresponding accident source terms have been defined on the basis of common plant features. Three types of representative reference scenarios encompass the accident sequences expected to be the most probable. Accident source terms are assumed to be identical for all Swiss nuclear power plants, although the plants differ in reactor type and power. Plant-specific probabilistic safety analyses were used to justify the reference scenarios and the postulated accident source terms. From the full spectrum of release categories available, those categories were selected which would be covered by the releases and time frames assumed in the reference scenarios. For each nuclear power plant, the cumulative frequency of accident sequences not covered by the reference scenarios was determined. It was found that the cumulative frequency for such accident sequences does not exceed about 1 x 10 -6 per year. The Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate concludes that the postulated accident source terms for the reference scenarios are consistent with the current international approach in emergency planning, where one should concentrate on the most probable accident sequences. (N.C.)

Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paltsev, Sergey

2014-01-01

Russia is an important energy supplier as it holds the world's largest natural gas reserves and it is the world's largest exporter of natural gas. Despite a recent reduction in Russia's exports to Europe, it plans to build new pipelines. We explore the long-term (up to 2050) scenarios of Russian natural gas exports to Europe and Asia using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. We found that over the next 20–40 years natural gas can still play a substantial role in Russian exports and there are substantial reserves to support a development of the gas-oriented energy system both in Russia and in its current and potential gas importers. Based on the considered scenarios, Russia does not need any new pipeline capacity to the EU unless it wants to diversify its export routes to supply the EU without any gas transit via Ukraine and Belarus. Asian markets are attractive to Russian gas and substantial volumes may be exported there. Relatively cheap shale gas in China may sufficiently alter the prospects of Russian gas, especially in Asian markets. In the Reference scenario, exports of natural gas grow from Russia's current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. Alternative scenarios provide a wider range of projections, with a share of Russian gas exports shipped to Asian markets rising to more than 30% by 2030 and almost 50% in 2050. Europe's reliance on LNG imports increases, while it still maintains sizable imports from Russia. - Highlights: • In the Reference scenario exports of natural gas grow from Russia’s current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. • In alternative scenarios a share of Russian exports to Asian markets is rising to about 30% by 2030 and 50 % in 2050. • Cheap shale gas in China can sufficiently alter Russian natural gas export. • Reduction in nuclear generation in Europe can lead to increased exports of natural gas from

Mycoplasma genitalium infections: current treatment options and resistance issues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sethi S

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Sunil Sethi, Kamran Zaman, Neha Jain Department of Medical Microbiology, Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India Abstract: Mycoplasma genitalium is one of the important causes of non-gonococcal urethritis. Rising incidence and emerging antimicrobial resistance are a major concern these days. The poor clinical outcomes with doxycycline therapy led to the use of azithromycin as the primary drug of choice. Single-dose azithromycin regimen over a period of time was changed to extended regimen following studies showing better clinical cures and less risk of resistance development. However, emerging macrolide resistance, either due to transmission of resistance or drug pressure has further worsened the management of this infection. The issues of drug resistance and treatment failures also exist in cases of M. genitalium infection. At present, the emergence of multidrug-resistant (MDR M. genitalium strains is an alarming sign for its treatment and the associated public health impact due to its complications. However, newer drugs like pristinamycin, solithromycin, sitafloxacin, and others have shown a hope for the clinical cure, but need further clinical trials to optimize the therapeutic dosing schedules and formulate appropriate treatment regimens. Rampant and inappropriate use of these newer drugs will further sabotage future attempts to manage MDR strains. There is currently a need to formulate diagnostic algorithms and etiology-based treatment regimens rather than the syndromic approach, preferably using combination therapy instead of a monotherapy. Awareness about the current guidelines and recommended treatment regimens among clinicians and local practitioners is of utmost importance. Antimicrobial resistance testing and global surveillance are required to assess the efficacy of current treatment regimens and for guiding future research for the early detection and management of MDR M. genitalium infections

Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo

Full Text Available The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (hereon PCs; acronym for Pyroclastic Currents ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps are incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PCs in case of a PC-forming explosive event and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PCs from VEI<4 events would be confined within the Campi Flegrei caldera, PC propagation being impeded by the northern and eastern caldera walls. Conversely, PCs from VEI 4-5 events could invade a wide area beyond the northern caldera rim, as well as part of the Naples metropolitan area to the east. A major controlling factor of PC dispersal is represented by the location of the vent area. PCs from the potentially largest eruption scenarios (analogous to the ~15 ka, VEI 6 Neapolitan Yellow Tuff or even the ~39 ka, VEI 7 Campanian Ignimbrite extreme event would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and the city of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity at Campi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanic hazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the present level of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and location (essentially based on statistical analysis of previous activity, we suggest that appropriate planning measures should

The 19th KAIF/KNS annual conference growth of nuclear industry and its current issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Juhn, Poong Eil

2004-01-01

After the president Eisenhower's 'Atoms for Peace' speech at the UN general Conference in December 1953, nuclear industry for peaceful uses of nuclear energy has been developed steadily worldwide through international co-operation and collaboration during last half a century. However, from late 1980s, in particular, after Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986 and growing public opposition on nuclear waste management and disposal, the growth of nuclear power plants worldwide, except some Asian countries, has been slowed down. Nuclear power currently supplies about 16 % of the world's electricity. In the next 50 years, it is expected that the world energy demand will increase about two times comparing current level while electricity demand will be tripled. Therefore, the nuclear industry should be expanded significantly in the next 50 years to meet the role for 'Prosperity beyond Peace'. The main issues for nuclear industry to take this important role are to increase in economics of nuclear power, and to resolve nuclear waste management and disposal. Some of these issues have been resolved mainly through international co-operation. For example, there are significant efforts to improve economics of nuclear power. This paper reviews worldwide efforts to resolve these issues and mentions what are the remaining ones

Current Issues of Antipyretic Therapy in Children with Acute Respiratory Infections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. I. Novikova

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the current issues in the pediatric practice of seasonal incidence of children with acute respiratory infections. The basic etiological aspects of this pathology, specific clinical symptoms typical for different pathogens, causes of bursts of disease in certain periods are described. Special attention is paid to the tactics of antipyretic therapy in different groups of children with fever and acute respiratory diseases, understand the typical errors in its appointment. The author discusses the domestic and foreign results of using ibuprofen to relieve fever in children with this pathology, comparative efficacy and safety data of ibuprofen with other analgesics-antipyretics.

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

1992-01-01

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

1992-12-31

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

Predictive integrated modelling for ITER scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Artaud, J.F.; Imbeaux, F.; Aniel, T.; Basiuk, V.; Eriksson, L.G.; Giruzzi, G.; Hoang, G.T.; Huysmans, G.; Joffrin, E.; Peysson, Y.; Schneider, M.; Thomas, P.

2005-01-01

The uncertainty on the prediction of ITER scenarios is evaluated. 2 transport models which have been extensively validated against the multi-machine database are used for the computation of the transport coefficients. The first model is GLF23, the second called Kiauto is a model in which the profile of dilution coefficient is a gyro Bohm-like analytical function, renormalized in order to get profiles consistent with a given global energy confinement scaling. The package of codes CRONOS is used, it gives access to the dynamics of the discharge and allows the study of interplay between heat transport, current diffusion and sources. The main motivation of this work is to study the influence of parameters such plasma current, heat, density, impurities and toroidal moment transport. We can draw the following conclusions: 1) the target Q = 10 can be obtained in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, using either the DS03 two terms scaling or the GLF23 model based on the same pedestal; 2) I p = 11.3 MA, Q = 10 can be reached only assuming a very peaked pressure profile and a low pedestal; 3) at fixed Greenwald fraction, Q increases with density peaking; 4) achieving a stationary q-profile with q > 1 requires a large non-inductive current fraction (80%) that could be provided by 20 to 40 MW of LHCD; and 5) owing to the high temperature the q-profile penetration is delayed and q = 1 is reached about 600 s in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, in the absence of active q-profile control. (A.C.)

'Economic' and 'Political' cooperation in various climate policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamaide, Bertrand

2003-01-01

Cooperation in the economic sense considers efficiency issues. Cooperation in the political sense, like the Kyoto Protocol, considers other issues like equity and historical responsibility. The environmental and economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol and other scenarios are thus examined. The US pullout may then be viewed, among others, as the result of not untying 'economic' and 'political' cooperation; and since the Protocol will be much less effective without the US, it is shown that an external economic stimulus should and may theoretically be found for retaining their participation

Regulating the Access to Genetic Resources in Brazil: Suggestions for a New Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nilo Luiz Saccaro-Junior

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The relationship between the use of genetic resources, social justice and biodiversity conservation has proved to be one of the main matters in current environmental issues. Brazil exercises a leadership role in international debates about genetic resources and is a pioneer in the creation of a specific internal regulation. This, however, has been strongly criticized by the stakeholders, as well as the lack of incentive for biodiversity research in this country. This paper discusses some of the main conflicting points and how a new scenario of control and promotion can overcome them, based on the regulatory experience since the creation of the current regulatory framework and national indicators available in research with Brazilian species. The suggestions are based on three pillars: a new relationship between government and bioprospectors, guided by encouraging legal activities; a diffuse distribution of benefits, with simple rules, being able to capture some profit from bioprospecting; and a synergy between the existence of traditional/indigenous communities and biodiversity maintenance.

Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Braun, Kimberly

1997-01-01

.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

Understanding compliance to privacy guidelines using text-and video-based scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Al Mahmud, A.; Kaptein, M.C.; Moran, O.P.; Garde - Perik, van de E.M.; Markopoulos, P.; Baranauskas, C.; Palanque, P.

2008-01-01

Privacy is a major concern for the design and user acceptance of pervasive technology. Investigating privacy poses several methodological challenges. A popular approach involves surveying reactions of people to scenarios that highlight privacy issues. This paper examines the validity of this

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

2017-12-01

Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat

Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

2013-01-01

To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

ICT Student Teachers' Judgments and Justifications about Ethical Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Alakurt, Turgay; Bardakci, Salih; Keser, Hafize

2012-01-01

In this study, Turkish ICT student teachers' judgments and justifications in four scenarios involving ICT-related ethical problems were investigated. Scenarios were designed based on Mason's (1986) four ethical issues: privacy, accuracy, property and accessibility. The study was carried out in the fall of 2010. We used the critical incidents…

Safety and Regulatory Issues of the Thorium Fuel Cycle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ade, Brian [ORNL; Worrall, Andrew [ORNL; Powers, Jeffrey [ORNL; Bowman, Steve [ORNL; Flanagan, George [ORNL; Gehin, Jess [ORNL

2014-02-01

Thorium has been widely considered an alternative to uranium fuel because of its relatively large natural abundance and its ability to breed fissile fuel (233U) from natural thorium (232Th). Possible scenarios for using thorium in the nuclear fuel cycle include use in different nuclear reactor types (light water, high temperature gas cooled, fast spectrum sodium, molten salt, etc.), advanced accelerator-driven systems, or even fission-fusion hybrid systems. The most likely near-term application of thorium in the United States is in currently operating light water reactors (LWRs). This use is primarily based on concepts that mix thorium with uranium (UO2 + ThO2), add fertile thorium (ThO2) fuel pins to LWR fuel assemblies, or use mixed plutonium and thorium (PuO2 + ThO2) fuel assemblies. The addition of thorium to currently operating LWRs would result in a number of different phenomenological impacts on the nuclear fuel. Thorium and its irradiation products have nuclear characteristics that are different from those of uranium. In addition, ThO2, alone or mixed with UO2 fuel, leads to different chemical and physical properties of the fuel. These aspects are key to reactor safety-related issues. The primary objectives of this report are to summarize historical, current, and proposed uses of thorium in nuclear reactors; provide some important properties of thorium fuel; perform qualitative and quantitative evaluations of both in-reactor and out-of-reactor safety issues and requirements specific to a thorium-based fuel cycle for current LWR reactor designs; and identify key knowledge gaps and technical issues that need to be addressed for the licensing of thorium LWR fuel in the United States.

Academic plastic surgery: a study of current issues and future challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Zetrenne, Eleonore; Kosins, Aaron M; Wirth, Garrett A; Bui, Albert; Evans, Gregory R D; Wells, James H

2008-06-01

The objectives of this study were (1) to evaluate the role of a full-time academic plastic surgeon, (2) to define the indicators predictive of a successful career in academic plastic surgery, and (3) to understand the current issues that will affect future trends in the practice of academic plastic surgery. A questionnaire was developed to evaluate the role of current full-time academic plastic surgeons and to understand the current issues and future challenges facing academic plastic surgery. Each plastic surgery program director in the United States was sent the survey for distribution among all full-time academic plastic surgeons. Over a 6-week period, responses from 143 full-time academic plastic surgeons (approximately 31%) were returned. Fifty-three percent of respondents had been academic plastic surgeons for longer than 10 years. Seventy-three percent of respondents defined academic plastic surgeons as clinicians who are teachers and researchers. However, 53% of respondents believed that academic plastic surgeons were not required to teach or practice within university hospitals/academic centers. The 3 factors reported most frequently as indicative of a successful career in academic plastic surgery were peer recognition, personal satisfaction, and program reputation. Dedication and motivation were the personal characteristics rated most likely to contribute to academic success. Forty-four percent of respondents were unable to identify future academic plastic surgeons from plastic surgery residency applicants, and 27% were not sure. Most (93%) of the respondents believed that academic surgery as practiced today will change. The overall job description of a full-time academic plastic surgeon remains unchanged (teacher and researcher). Whereas peer recognition, personal satisfaction, and program reputation were most frequently cited as indicative of a successful plastic surgery career, financial success was rated the least indicative. Similarly, whereas the

The new radiation protection law. Exposure scenarios and disposal; Das neue Strahlenschutzrecht. Expositionssituationen und Entsorgung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2017-07-01

The proceedings of the meeting (October 2017, Hannover) on the new radiation protection law includes abstracts concerning the following sessions: actual development in radiation protection jurisdiction, implementation of the EU basic safety standards (BSS) in Europe, planned exposure scenarios, existing exposure scenarios, emergency exposure situations, final radioactive waste disposal, education, radon, radiation protection issues, statistics, medical radiation exposure.

Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J.

2007-01-01

The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO 2 . (author)

Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J. [The University of Melbourne, Victoria (Australia). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, International Technologies Centre

2007-04-15

The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO{sub 2}. (author)

Integration of software for scenario exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

1999-03-01

The scenario exploration methodology using shadow models is a variation of the environmental simulation method. Key aspect of the scenario exploration is the use of shadow models which are not corresponding to any specific assumptions on physical processes and, instead, abstract their general features relevant to the effects on nuclide transport in a general manner so that benefit of using simulation approach can be maximized. In developing the shadow models, all the modelling options that have not yet been denied by the experts are kept and parametrized in a very general framework. This, in turn, enables one to treat various types of the uncertainty in performance assessment, i.e., scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, in a common framework of uncertainty / sensitivity analysis. Objective of the current study is to review / modify the tools which have been developed separately and, thence, not fully consistent from one to the other and to integrate them into a unified methodology and software. Tasks for this are; 1. modification / integration of tools for scenario exploration of nuclide transport in the EBS and the near-field host rock, 2. verification of the software modified and integrated, 3. installation of the software at JNC. (author)

Sustainable WEE management in Malaysia: present scenarios and future perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Rezaul Hasan Shumon, Md; Ahmed, S.

2013-12-01

Technological advances have resulted development of a lot of electronic products for continuously increasing number of customers. As the customer taste and features of these products change rapidly, the life cycles have come down tremendously. Therefore, a large volume of e-wastes are now emanated every year. This scenario is very much predominant in Malaysia. On one hand e-wastes are becoming environmental hazards and affecting the ecological imbalance. On the other, these wastes are remaining still economically valuable. In Malaysia, e-waste management system is still in its nascent state. This paper describes the current status of e-waste generation and recycling and explores issues for future e-waste management system in Malaysia from sustainable point of view. As to draw some factual comparisons, this paper reviews the e-waste management system in European Union, USA, Japan, as a benchmark. Then it focuses on understanding the Malaysian culture, consumer discarding behavior, flow of the materials in recycling, e-waste management system, and presents a comparative view with the Swiss e-waste system. Sustainable issues for e-waste management in Malaysia are also presented. The response adopted so far in collection and recovery activities are covered in later phases. Finally, it investigates the barriers and challenges of e-waste system in Malaysia.

Numerical optimization of actuator trajectories for ITER hybrid scenario profile evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dongen, J van; Hogeweij, G M D; Felici, F; Geelen, P; Maljaars, E

2014-01-01

Optimal actuator trajectories for an ITER hybrid scenario ramp-up are computed using a numerical optimization method. For both L-mode and H-mode scenarios, the time trajectory of plasma current, EC heating and current drive distribution is determined that minimizes a chosen cost function, while satisfying constraints. The cost function is formulated to reflect two desired properties of the plasma q profile at the end of the ramp-up. The first objective is to maximize the ITG turbulence threshold by maximizing the volume-averaged s/q ratio. The second objective is to achieve a stationary q profile by having a flat loop voltage profile. Actuator and physics-derived constraints are included, imposing limits on plasma current, ramp rates, internal inductance and q profile. This numerical method uses the fast control-oriented plasma profile evolution code RAPTOR, which is successfully benchmarked against more complete CRONOS simulations for L-mode and H-mode mode ITER hybrid scenarios. It is shown that the optimized trajectories computed using RAPTOR also result in an improved ramp-up scenario for CRONOS simulations using the same input trajectories. Furthermore, the optimal trajectories are shown to vary depending on the precise timing of the L–H transition. (paper)

Demand scenarios, worldwide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

1996-11-01

Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

Design and assessment of long-term sustainable transport system scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nijkamp, P.; Rienstra, S.A.; Vleugel, J.M. [Systems and Control Group, Faculty of Mechanical and Marine Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands)

1995-03-01

Current trends in transport indicate that the system is moving away from a sustainable development because of a sky-rocketing mobility growth and a modal shift towards the most polluting modes. These trends are reinforced by several underlying factors, which may be found in the spatial, institutional, economic and social/psychological fields. It may be concluded that major changes in technology, public policy as well as in the behaviour of individuals are necessary to make the transport system more compatible with environmental sustainability. This provokes the need for assessing a set of future images for transport in relation to the environment. In this paper expert scenarios are constructed on the basis of the recently developed `spider model`. Based on a set of distinct characteristics of a transport system, represented by eight axes in the above mentioned fields, an evaluation framework is constructed, which visualizes the main discussed driving forces. Scenarios can be constructed by connecting points on the successive axes, which may lead to entirely different transport systems. An expected and desired scenario are constructed next, by means of opinions of Dutch transport experts, which have been investigated by means of a nation-wide survey. The expected scenario indicates that many current trends will continue, while the transport system is largely the same as the current one. The desired scenario on the other hand, gives a more collective system, in which also many new modes are operating. The conclusion is that expected trends may not lead to a sustainable transport system, but that the desired road will be very hard to follow. 5 figs., 2 tabs., 27 refs.

Desirability and feasibility of sustainable urban transport systems. An expert-based strategic scenario approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nijkamp, P.; Ouwersloot, H.; Rienstra, S.A. [Department of Spatial Economics, Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

1995-09-01

Current trends in transport indicate that the system is moving away from sustainability and that major changes are necessary to make the transport system more compatible with environmental sustainability. Main problems may occur in urban transport, where not many promising solutions are expected, while the problems are severe. In view of the great number of uncertainties, we will in our paper resort to scenarios. In the paper, expert scenarios, which lead to a sustainable transport system are constructed by applying the recently developed `Spider model`. Based on a set of distinct characteristics, leading to eight axes in the spatial, institutional, economic and social-psychological field, an evaluation framework is constructed, which visualizes the driving forces that largely influence the future of the transport system. Next, expected and desired scenarios are constructed by means of opinions of Dutch transport experts - both average scenarios and scenarios of segments of the respondents - which have been investigated by means of a survey. The expected scenarios indicate that many current trends will continue, while the transport system is largely the same as the current one. The desired scenarios on the other hand, suggest the emergence and the need for a more collective system, in which also many new modes are operating. In the paper the resulting urban transport systems are also discussed. By calculating the CO2 emissions in the average expected and desired scenario, it appears that the expected scenario does not lead to a large scale reduction of those emissions; the desired scenario however, may lead to a large scale reduction of the emissions. The conclusion is that the differences in expert opinion are small and that the road towards a sustainable (urban) transport system is still far away, although the compact city concept may perhaps offer some solution. 6 figs., 2 tabs., 18 refs.

Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mirko Previsic

2010-06-17

Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two

Africa energy future: Alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouedraogo, Nadia S.

2017-01-01

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is of prime importance in Africa due to the steady increase in energy requirements, the non-availability of sufficient resources, the high dependence on fossil-fuels to meet these requirements, and the global concerns over the energy-induced environmental issues. This paper is concerned with modelling possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions. Future energy demand is forecasted based on socio-economic variables such as gross domestic product, income per capita, population, and urbanisation. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) modelling framework is employed to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period of 2010–2040. Results of scenarios including business-as-usual (BAU) policies, moderate energy access and accelerate energy access policies, renewable energies promotion and energy efficiency policies and their environmental implications are provided. The study provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for energy policies to promote universal energy access, enable a transition to renewable energy, and mitigate climate change for a sustainable development. - Highlights: • Possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions are modelled. • Scenarios using an adaptation of Schwartz's scenario approach, under LEAP are developed. • Under the current energy policies, the universal access to modern energy will not be met by 2030. • Policies to accelerate the changes in energy structure are required for sustainable development. • Investing in Energy efficient strategies has emerged as one of the best solution.

Field primatology of today: current ethical issues.

Science.gov (United States)

MacKinnon, K C; Riley, E P

2010-09-01

As members of professional organizations such as American Society of Primatologists (ASP) and the International Primatological Society (IPS), primatologists must adhere to a set of nonhuman primate-focused principles outlined in resolutions and policy statements on, for example, the ethical treatment of nonhuman primates. Those of us that work in the field must also address issues such as the protection of primate health in the wild and the conservation of wild primate populations. Moreover, we increasingly find ourselves in complex situations where we must balance human and nonhuman primate needs and interests. The selection of commentary pieces in this edition of the American Journal of Primatology originated from presentations given in the symposium, Field Primatology of Today: Navigating the Ethical Landscape, held at the 32nd Annual Meeting of the American Society of Primatologists (ASP) in September 2009. The goals of that symposium and these resulting commentary pieces are threefold: (1) to revive a discussion of key contemporary ethical issues faced by field primatologists, (2) to highlight the need for centrally placed ethical considerations in various facets of our professional lives, particularly research and teaching, and (3) to consider what a comprehensive ethical code that addresses all of these issues might look like. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Experimental observations of boric acid precipitation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vaghetto, R., E-mail: r.vaghetto@tamu.edu; Childs, M., E-mail: masonchilds@tamu.edu; Jones, P., E-mail: pgjones87@tamu.edu; Lee, S., E-mail: sayalee@tamu.edu; Kee, E., E-mail: erniekee@gmail.com; Hassan, Y.A., E-mail: y-hassan@tamu.edu

2017-02-15

results may help addressing some basic questions regarding the effect of the precipitation of boric acid during core blockage LOCA scenarios and, provide the basis for further experimental and computational analysis required to resolve the BAP issue as part of the Generic Safety Issue 191.

Total cost estimates for large-scale wind scenarios in UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dale, Lewis; Milborrow, David; Slark, Richard; Strbac, Goran

2004-01-01

The recent UK Energy White Paper suggested that the Government should aim to secure 20% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020. A number of estimates of the extra cost of such a commitment have been made, but these have not necessarily included all the relevant cost components. This analysis sets out to identify these and to calculate the extra cost to the electricity consumer, assuming all the renewable electricity is sourced from wind energy. This enables one of the more controversial issues--the implications of wind intermittency--to be addressed. The basis of the assumptions associated with generating costs, extra balancing costs and distribution and transmission system reinforcement costs are all clearly identified and the total costs of a '20% wind' scenario are compared with a scenario where a similar amount of energy is generated by gas-fired plant. This enables the extra costs of the renewables scenario to be determined. The central estimate of the extra costs to electricity consumers is just over 0.3 p/kW h in current prices (around 5% extra on average domestic unit prices). Sensitivity analyses examine the implications of differing assumptions. The extra cost would rise if the capital costs of wind generation fall slower than anticipated, but would fall if gas prices rise more rapidly than has been assumed, or if wind plant are more productive. Even if it is assumed that wind has no capacity displacement value, the added cost to the electricity consumer rises by less than 0.1 p/kW h. It is concluded that there does not appear to be any technical reason why a substantial proportion of the country's electricity requirements could not be delivered by wind

Preparing suitable climate scenario data to assess impacts on local food safety

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, C.; Hofstra, N.; Leemans, R.

2015-01-01

Quantification of climate change impacts on food safety requires food safety assessment with different past and future climate scenario data to compare current and future conditions. This study presents a tool to prepare climate and climate change data for local food safety scenario analysis and

Current safety issues of CANDU licensing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Y.; Natalizio, A.

1994-01-01

As requested by Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety(KINS), the status of five generic licensing issues has been examined and their potential impact on a new plant that would be constructed in Canada has been evaluated. The results and conclusions of this evaluation are summarized as follows: steam explosion in calandria, hydrogen explosion in containment, use of PSA in reactor licensing, human factors, safety critical software

TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

2012-06-01

Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene

2010-01-01

The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

2050 pathway to an active renewable energy scenario for Jiangsu province

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Lixuan; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Möller, Bernd

2013-01-01

In 2009, Jiangsu province of China supplied 99.6 percent of its total energy consumption with fossil fuels, of which 82 percent was imported from other provinces and countries. With rising energy demand, frequent energy shortages, and increasing pollution, it is essential for Jiangsu to put more emphasis on improving its energy efficiency and utilizing its renewable resources in the future. This paper presents the integrated energy pathway for Jiangsu during its social and economic transformation until 2050. EnergyPLAN is the chosen energy system analysis tool, since it accounts for all sectors of the energy system that needs to be considered when integrating large-scale renewable energy. A current policy scenario (CPS) based on current energy policies and an ambitious policy scenario (APS) based on large-scale integration of renewable energy and ambitious measures of energy efficiency improvement are proposed. The two energy pathways are modeled and compared in terms of technology combination, non-fossil fuel shares of primary energy supply, socioeconomic costs, and CO 2 emissions. The insights from these pathways can provide valuable input for Jiangsu's future energy policies. - Highlights: ► An integrated energy pathway is designed for Jiangsu province by 2050. ► A current policy scenario and an ambitious policy scenario are modeled and assessed. ► The ambitious policy scenario can help stabilize CO 2 emissions and achieve better economy. ► The next 5–10 years would be a key period for Jiangsu's energy system transition. ► Several policy suggestions have been proposed.

Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesus Vera-Aguilera

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

2013-01-01

Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economics. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle (as a reference scenario), a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycles with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand. Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios respectively.

Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

2013-07-01

Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economics. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle (as a reference scenario), a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycles with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand. Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios respectively.

Improved Battery Parameter Estimation Method Considering Operating Scenarios for HEV/EV Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jufeng Yang

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an improved battery parameter estimation method based on typical operating scenarios in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Compared with the conventional estimation methods, the proposed method takes both the constant-current charging and the dynamic driving scenarios into account, and two separate sets of model parameters are estimated through different parts of the pulse-rest test. The model parameters for the constant-charging scenario are estimated from the data in the pulse-charging periods, while the model parameters for the dynamic driving scenario are estimated from the data in the rest periods, and the length of the fitted dataset is determined by the spectrum analysis of the load current. In addition, the unsaturated phenomenon caused by the long-term resistor-capacitor (RC network is analyzed, and the initial voltage expressions of the RC networks in the fitting functions are improved to ensure a higher model fidelity. Simulation and experiment results validated the feasibility of the developed estimation method.

Local and regional low carbon scenarios methodology, challenges and opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

In its first part, this report discusses the emergence of local climate and energy policy in Europe, the implementation of nationally imposed but regionally anchored energy scenarios (i.e. in France, the Climate Air Energy Regional Schemes or SRCAE). Then it addresses the methodological and political aspects of local and regional low emission scenarios: methodologies and typologies of energy scenarios, ways to define an appropriate emission reduction and energy consumption objective, ways to deal with emission or carbon gaps, ways to make local emission inventories, ways to gather local data, ways to deal with special emission sources, ways to assess and develop local energy efficiency and renewable energy potentials, ways to take energy sufficiency into account, and the evolution from energy autonomy to 100% renewable energy territories. The last part addresses the issues of stake holder and citizen participation in the definition of long term strategies

Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haegermark, H; Bergmark, M

1995-06-01

This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

A CyberCIEGE Scenario Illustrating Secrecy Issues in an Internal Corporate Network Connected to the Internet

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lamorie, Justin

2004-01-01

.... These customized scenarios produce game simulations that are tailored to meet a player's specific IA training needs, thus providing personalized, focused IA training at a minimum cost in both dollars and time...

Current Therapeutic Cannabis Controversies and Clinical Trial Design Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Russo, Ethan B.

2016-01-01

This overview covers a wide range of cannabis topics, initially examining issues in dispensaries and self-administration, plus regulatory requirements for production of cannabis-based medicines, particularly the Food and Drug Administration “Botanical Guidance.” The remainder pertains to various cannabis controversies that certainly require closer examination if the scientific, consumer, and governmental stakeholders are ever to reach consensus on safety issues, specifically: whether botanical cannabis displays herbal synergy of its components, pharmacokinetics of cannabis and dose titration, whether cannabis medicines produce cyclo-oxygenase inhibition, cannabis-drug interactions, and cytochrome P450 issues, whether cannabis randomized clinical trials are properly blinded, combatting the placebo effect in those trials via new approaches, the drug abuse liability (DAL) of cannabis-based medicines and their regulatory scheduling, their effects on cognitive function and psychiatric sequelae, immunological effects, cannabis and driving safety, youth usage, issues related to cannabis smoking and vaporization, cannabis concentrates and vape-pens, and laboratory analysis for contamination with bacteria and heavy metals. Finally, the issue of pesticide usage on cannabis crops is addressed. New and disturbing data on pesticide residues in legal cannabis products in Washington State are presented with the observation of an 84.6% contamination rate including potentially neurotoxic and carcinogenic agents. With ongoing developments in legalization of cannabis in medical and recreational settings, numerous scientific, safety, and public health issues remain. PMID:27683558

Current Therapeutic Cannabis Controversies and Clinical Trial Design Issues.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ethan Budd Russo

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This overview covers a wide range of cannabis topics, initially examining issue in dispensaries and self-administration, plus regulatory requirement for production of cannabis-based medicines, particularly the Food and Drug Administration Botanical Guidance. The remainder pertains to various cannabis controversies that certainly require closer examination if the scientific, consumer and governmental stakeholders are ever to reach consensus on safety issues, specifically: whether botanical cannabis displays herbal synergy of its components, pharmacokinetics of cannabis and dose titration, whether cannabis medicines produce cyclo-oxygenase inhibition, cannabis-drug interactions and cytochrome P450 issues, whether cannabis randomized clinical trials are properly blinded, combatting the placebo effect in those trials via new approaches, the drug abuse liability of cannabis-based medicines and their regulatory scheduling, their effects on cognitive function and psychiatric sequelae, immunological effects, cannabis and driving safety, youth usage, issues related to cannabis smoking and vaporization, cannabis concentrates and vape-pens, and laboratory analysis for contamination with bacteria and heavy metals. Finally, the issue of pesticide usage on cannabis crops is addressed. New and disturbing data on pesticide residues in legal cannabis products in Washington State are presented with the observation of an 84.6% contamination rate including potentially neurotoxic and carcinogenic agents. With ongoing developments in legalization of cannabis in medical and recreational settings, numerous scientific, safety and public health issues remain.

Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

Science.gov (United States)

Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

2018-03-06

The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

A look into the future. Scenarios for distributed generation in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scheepers, M.J.J.; Timpe, C.

2003-12-01

Based on the analysis of the long-term historical and future technical, socio-economic and institutional dynamics of European electricity supply systems and markets, the SUSTELNET project developed scenarios for future electricity supply systems in EU Member States and Newly Associated States (NAS). These scenarios provide a background for the development of regulatory road maps, which can be used as a tool to map out a regulatory strategy, facilitating the transition of current regulation into a regulatory framework that is required for future sustainable electricity supply systems. This report describes four different scenarios for the future of electricity systems and distributed generation (DG) in Europe in a qualitative manner. Moreover, the methodology used to develop these scenarios is described as well as the impact that disruptive events may have on these scenarios

Bioclimatic predictions of habitat suitability for the biofuel switchgrass in North America under current and future climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barney, Jacob N.; DiTomaso, Joseph M.

2010-01-01

Dedicated biofuel crops, while providing economic and other benefits, may adversely impact biodiversity directly via land use conversion, or indirectly via creation of novel invasive species. To mitigate negative impacts bioclimatic envelope models (BEM) can be used to estimate the potential distribution and suitable habitat based on the climate and distribution in the native range. We used CLIMEX to evaluate the regions of North America suitable for agronomic production, as well as regions potentially susceptible to an invasion of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) under both current and future climate scenarios. Model results show that >8.7 million km 2 of North America has suitable to very favorable habitat, most of which occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. The non-native range of western North America is largely unsuitable to switchgrass as a crop or potential weed unless irrigation or permanent water is available. Under both the CGCM2 and HadCM3 climate models and A2 and B2 emissions scenarios, an overall increase in suitable habitat is predicted over the coming century, although the western US remains unsuitable. Our results suggest that much of North America is suitable for switchgrass cultivation, although this is likely to shift north in the coming century. Our results also agree with field collections of switchgrass outside its native range, which indicate that switchgrass is unlikely to establish unless it has access to water throughout the year (e.g., along a stream). Thus, it is the potential invasion of switchgrass into riparian habitats in the West that requires further investigation. (author)

Identification and Selection of Alternative Scenarios in LCA Studies of Integrated Waste Management Systems: A Review of Main Issues and Perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Raggi

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Life Cycle Assessment (LCA is a decision support tool that can be used to assess the environmental performance of an integrated waste management system or to identify the system with the best performance through a comparative analysis of different scenarios. The results of the analysis depend primarily on how the scenarios to be compared are defined, that is on which waste fractions are assumed to be sent to certain treatments/destinations and in what amounts. This paper reviews LCAs of integrated waste management systems with the aim of exploring how the scenarios to be compared are defined in the preliminary phase of an LCA. This critical review highlighted that various criteria, more or less subjective, are generally used for the definition of scenarios. Furthermore, the number of scenarios identified and compared is generally limited; this may entail that only the best option among a limited set of possibilities can be selected, instead of identifying the best of all possible combinations. As a result, the advisability of identifying an integrated life cycle-based methodological approach that allows finding the most environmentally sound scenario among all of those that are theoretically possible is stressed.

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

2018-09-01

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision

Photovoltaic procurement strategies: an assessment of supply issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Posner, D.; Costello, D.

1980-02-01

This review report presents the results of an analysis of alternative approaches to the design of a federal photovoltaics procurement program. Advantages and disadvantages of large purchases at fixed prices and smaller purchases for testing and demonstrating the technology are presented. The objectives and possible impacts of these purchase programs on the photovoltaic industry are described. The reactions of the industry to alternative purchase programs were assessed using personal interviews with selected companies currently active in photovoltaics. The report begins with a review of the impacts of federal procurements on other innovations, including the electronics industry, and suggests the relation of these procurements to photovoltaics. The methodology for conducting the interviews is presented next. The results of the interviews are summarized into possible scenarios of future developments in the industry and into discussions of key issues in the design of a procurement program. An appendix on the current structure of the photovoltaic industry is provided.

CURRENT ISSUES ON JOB STRESS IN JAPAN AND WORKSITE MENTAL HEALTH APPLICATION AMONG JAPANESE COMPANY A Case Study Analysis

OpenAIRE

S Purnawati

2013-01-01

Background: Issues about job stress is more popular in the world currently. Not just for Japan, Korea and Taiwan, but also an important issue in EU countries, especially the UK and Finland Increase of awareness about job stress effects on work performance, productivity and mental health is as onereason of the phenomenon.Objective: The present study aimed to explore the issue of job stress in Japan for the reference of good practices to Indonesia.Methods: This study, based on observationalstud...

Modelling the role of nitrogen in acidification of Swedish lakes: future scenarios of acid deposition, climate change and forestry practices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moldan, Filip (Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd., Stockholm (Sweden)); Cosby, B. Jack (Dept. of Env. Sciences, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)); Wright, Richard F. (Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Kjelsas, Oslo (Norway))

2009-12-15

There are three major drivers that can cause future changes in lake water chemistry: air pollution, land use and climate change. In this report we used an extensive set of Swedish lakes sampled in 1995, 2000 and in 2005 to model future lake water chemistry under 5 different scenarios. The base case scenario represented deposition of air pollutants under current legislation (CLE); that is assuming that emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) will be reduced as currently agreed by the Gothenburg protocol, NEC directive and other legislation. After the agreed emission reductions were achieved, no further reduction in deposition was assumed and deposition was maintained constant up to year 2100. The base scenario assumed no change in current forestry practices and no climate change. A second other deposition scenario was based on maximum (technically) feasible emission reduction (MFR). The MFR scenario also did not assume change of either forestry practices or climate. A maximum biomass harvest was modelled (land use, LU, scenario), which entailed harvest of tree stems, slash and stumps. A scenario of climate change (CC) followed the IPCC A2 scenario downscaled to Sweden by SMHI. Finally climate change and land use were combined (CCLU scenario). The CC, LU and CCLU scenarios were driven by the 'current legislation' (CLE) deposition scenario for S and N deposition. The biogeochemical model MAGIC was used in this project, and scenarios were evaluated up to year 2100. Special attention was paid to the impact of the future scenarios on N leaching

Mars Scenario-Based Visioning: Logistical Optimization of Transportation Architectures

Science.gov (United States)

1999-01-01

The purpose of this conceptual design investigation is to examine transportation forecasts for future human Wu missions to Mars. - Scenario-Based Visioning is used to generate possible future demand projections. These scenarios are then coupled with availability, cost, and capacity parameters for indigenously designed Mars Transfer Vehicles (solar electric, nuclear thermal, and chemical propulsion types) and Earth-to-Orbit launch vehicles (current, future, and indigenous) to provide a cost-conscious dual-phase launch manifest to meet such future demand. A simulator named M-SAT (Mars Scenario Analysis Tool) is developed using this method. This simulation is used to examine three specific transportation scenarios to Mars: a limited "flaus and footprints" mission, a More ambitious scientific expedition similar to an expanded version of the Design Reference Mission from NASA, and a long-term colonization scenario. Initial results from the simulation indicate that chemical propulsion systems might be the architecture of choice for all three scenarios. With this mind, "what if' analyses were performed which indicated that if nuclear production costs were reduced by 30% for the colonization scenario, then the nuclear architecture would have a lower life cycle cost than the chemical. Results indicate that the most cost-effective solution to the Mars transportation problem is to plan for segmented development, this involves development of one vehicle at one opportunity and derivatives of that vehicle at subsequent opportunities.

Measurement in Marketing: Current Scenario, Recommendations and Challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Felipe Zambaldi

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to discuss about construct measurement in Marketing by summarizing the main considerations about the subject. First, it discusses the origins of the debates about the theme since the 1970s and describes its main consolidated models (the classical Churchill’s model, the COARSE model and the formative measurement model. Then it presents current concerns about the classical approach with relevant recommendations (particularly regarding multi-item measurement, single-item measurement, rating scales and cross-cultural aspects. At the end, it presents considerations about measurement trends in Marketing with emphasis on the Item Response Theory (IRT, Bayesian estimators and Partial Least Squares (PLS. The article updates the debate on the theme and contributes to Marketing experts and researchers who demand a current view about measurement and recommendations for research development. 

AGRICULTURAL DYNAMICS IN PAKISTAN: CURRENT ISSUES AND SOLUTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fawad Zafar Ahmad Khan

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Agriculture is heavily contributing towards the economy of Pakistan. Water deficiency and drought conditions, long duration load shedding issue, poor extension services, absence of land reforms, absence of distribution of certified varieties, high price of fertilizers, deliberate use of adulterated, non-recommended and expired insecticides, non utilization of cultivable waste land, conventional farming practices, indirect access of farmer to main market, absence of ecological based cropping pattern, smuggling of agricultural inputs and outputs, lack of cooperation between agricultural research, education & extension services, absence of crop insurance, depletion of forests, lack of modern post-harvest technologies and disease outbreaks of poultry birds are some of the key issues that are playing a negative role in demotion of agricultural sector in Pakistan. The review article will briefly discuss above mentioned issues and some of the possible remedies under the environment of Pakistanand their adoption to improve the agricultural productivity in the country.

Palestinian-Israeli Scenario Planning - Phase II | IDRC ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

As currently foreseen, neither the two-state nor the one-state solution offers much hope of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Scenario Planning Program of the Strategic Assessments Initiative (SAI) aims to launch a deeper examination of what a sustainable solution requires by shifting the debate from the ...

Hydrogen related safety issues in the context of containments of Indian PHWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markendeya, S.G.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Venkat Raj, V.

2002-01-01

Full text: Assessment of risk due to hydrogen released during postulated hypothetical accident scenarios in the nuclear power plants (NPPs) has been an important area of R and D studies world over. The issues, such as appropriate methodologies for estimation of hydrogen source term and for hydrogen dispersion calculations, technology development for hydrogen mitigation in containment of NPPs and assessment of damage due to deflagration/detonation of hydrogen (if it occurs) are being addressed as a part of some of the multidisciplinary study programs currently underway in BARC. While a significant overall progress has been achieved in general as a result of these programs, requirements of further fine-tuning of these studies have also emerged. The present paper takes a brief look at the current state-of the-art technology available to address these issues. The progress of R and D studies underway at BARC has also been critically reviewed in the paper to bring out necessary planning of further studies so as to enhance the safety of Indian NPPs

Strategic and policy issues raised by the transition from thermal to fast nuclear systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

The renewed interest in nuclear energy triggered by concerns about global climate change and security of supply, which could lead to substantial growth in nuclear electricity generation, enhances the attractiveness of fast neutron reactors with closed fuel cycles. Moving from the current fleet of thermal neutron reactors to fast neutron systems will require many decades and extensive RD-D efforts. This book identifies and analyses key strategic and policy issues raised by such a transition, aiming at providing guidance to decision makers on the best approaches for implementing transition scenarios. The topics covered in this book will be of interest to government and nuclear industry policy makers as well as to specialists working on nuclear energy system analyses and advanced fuel cycle issues. (author)

Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

2017-12-01

Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LMFBR safety. 3. Review of current issues and bibliography of literature (1972--1974)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchanan, J.R.; Keilholtz, G.W.

1977-01-01

The report discusses the current status of liquid-metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) development and one of the principal safety issues, a hypothetical core-disruptive accident (HCDA). Bibliographic information on worldwide LMFBRs relative to the development of the breeder reactor as a safe source of nuclear power is presented for the period 1972 through 1974. The bibliography consists of approximately 1380 abstracts covering research and development and operating experiences leading up to the present design practices that are necessary for the licensing of breeder reactors. Key-word, author, and permuted-title indexes are included

LMFBR safety. 5. Review of current issues and bibliography of literature (1975--1976)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchanan, J.R.; Keilholtz, G.W.

1977-01-01

The current status of liquid-metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) development and one of the principal safety issues, a hypothetical core-disruptive accident (HCDA), are discussed. Bibliographic information on worldwide LMFBRs relative to the development and safety of the breeder reactor is presented for the period 1975 through 1976. The bibliography consists of approximately 1618 abstracts covering early research and development and operating experiences leading up to the present design practices that are necessary for the licensing of breeder reactors. Keyword, author, and permuted-title indexes are included for completeness

LMFBR safety. 3. Review of current issues and bibliography of literature (1972--1974)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buchanan, J.R.; Keilholtz, G.W.

1977-02-24

The report discusses the current status of liquid-metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) development and one of the principal safety issues, a hypothetical core-disruptive accident (HCDA). Bibliographic information on worldwide LMFBRs relative to the development of the breeder reactor as a safe source of nuclear power is presented for the period 1972 through 1974. The bibliography consists of approximately 1380 abstracts covering research and development and operating experiences leading up to the present design practices that are necessary for the licensing of breeder reactors. Key-word, author, and permuted-title indexes are included.

LMFBR safety. 5. Review of current issues and bibliography of literature (1975--1976)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buchanan, J.R.; Keilholtz, G.W.

1977-06-08

The current status of liquid-metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) development and one of the principal safety issues, a hypothetical core-disruptive accident (HCDA), are discussed. Bibliographic information on worldwide LMFBRs relative to the development and safety of the breeder reactor is presented for the period 1975 through 1976. The bibliography consists of approximately 1618 abstracts covering early research and development and operating experiences leading up to the present design practices that are necessary for the licensing of breeder reactors. Keyword, author, and permuted-title indexes are included for completeness.

LMFBR safety. 1. Review of current issues and bibliography of literature, 1960--1969

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buchanan, J.R.; Keilholtz, G.W.

1976-08-16

This report discusses the current status of liquid-metal fast breeder (LMFBR) development and one of the principal safety issues, a hypothetical core-disruptive accident (HCDA). Bibliographic information on worldwide LMFBRs relative to the development of the breeder reactor as a safe source of nuclear power is presented for the period 1960 through 1969. The bibliography consists of 1560 abstracts covering early research and development and operating experiences leading up to the present design practices that are necessary for the licensing of breeder reactors. Key-word, author, and permuted-title indexes are included for completeness.

LMFBR safety. 1. Review of current issues and bibliography of literature, 1960--1969

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchanan, J.R.; Keilholtz, G.W.

1976-01-01

This report discusses the current status of liquid-metal fast breeder (LMFBR) development and one of the principal safety issues, a hypothetical core-disruptive accident (HCDA). Bibliographic information on worldwide LMFBRs relative to the development of the breeder reactor as a safe source of nuclear power is presented for the period 1960 through 1969. The bibliography consists of 1560 abstracts covering early research and development and operating experiences leading up to the present design practices that are necessary for the licensing of breeder reactors. Key-word, author, and permuted-title indexes are included for completeness

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2014-12-01

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

2018-05-01

The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for

Fire Risk Scoping Study: Investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk, including previously unaddressed issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lambright, J.A.; Nowlen, S.P.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.

1989-01-01

An investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk issues raised as a result of the USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program at Sandia National Laboratories has been performed. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. In performance of the fire risk scenario requantifications several important insights were gained. It was found that utilization of a more extensive operational experience base resulted in both fire occurrence frequencies and fire duration times (i.e., time required for fire suppression) increasing significantly over those assumed in the original works. Additionally, some thermal damage threshold limits assumed in the original works were identified as being nonconservative based on more recent experimental data. Finally, application of the COMPBRN III fire growth model resulted in calculation of considerably longer fire damage times than those calculated in the original works using COMPBRN I. 14 refs., 2 figs., 16 tabs

Urban science education: examining current issues through a historical lens

Science.gov (United States)

McLaughlin, Cheryl A.

2014-12-01

This paper reviews and synthesizes urban science education studies published between 2000 and 2013 with a view to identifying current challenges faced by both teachers and students in urban classrooms. Additionally, this paper considers the historical events that have shaped the conditions, bureaucracies, and interactions of urban institutions. When the findings from these urban science education studies were consolidated with the historical overview provided, it was revealed that the basic design and regulatory policies of urban schools have not substantively changed since their establishment in the nineteenth century. Teachers in urban science classrooms continue to face issues of inequality, poverty, and social injustice as they struggle to meet the needs of an increasingly diverse student population. Furthermore, persistent concerns of conflicting Discourses, cultural dissonance, and oppression create formidable barriers to science learning. Despite the many modifications in structure and organization, urban students are still subjugated and marginalized in systems that emphasize control and order over high-quality science education.

Evaluation of fuel cycle scenarios on MOX fuel recycling in PWRs and SFRs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlier, B.; Caron-Charles, M.; Van Den Durpel, L. [AREVA, 1 place Jean Millier, Paris La Defense (France); Senentz, G. [AREVA, 33 rue La Lafayette, 75009 Paris (France); Serpantie, J.P. [AREVA, 10 rue Juliette Recamier, Lyon (France)

2013-07-01

Prospects on advanced fuel cycle scenario are considered for achieving a progressive integration of Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) technology within the current French Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) nuclear fleet, in a view to benefit from fissile material multi-recycling capability. A step by step process is envisioned, and emphasis is put on its potential implementation through the nuclear mass inventory calculations with the COSAC code. The overall time scale is not optimized. The first step, already implemented in several countries, the plutonium coming from the reprocessing of used Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuels is recycled into a small number of LWRs. The second step is the progressive introduction of the first SFRs, in parallel with the continuation of step 1. This second step lets to prepare the optimized multi recycling of MOX fuel which is considered in step 3. Step 3 is characterized by the introduction of a greater number of SFR and MOX management between EPR reactors and SFRs. In the final step 4, all the fleet is formed with SFRs. This study assesses the viability of each step of the overall scenario. The switch from one step to the other one could result from different constrains related to issues such as resources, waste, experience feedback, public acceptance, country policy, etc.

Current technical issues in international safeguards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bennett, C.A.

1977-01-01

Safeguards systems, and the associated need for technical and systems development, reflect changing conditions and concerns associated with the nuclear fuel cycle and the safety and security of nuclear materials and facilities. In particular, the implementation of international safeguards has led to the recognition of certain technical issues, both old and new, which are in need of resolution. These are: 1. The grading of nuclear materials and facilities with respect to their relative safeguards significance. 2. The extension and upgrading of safeguards techniques to maintain adequate protection in view of constantly increasing amounts of material to be safeguarded. 3. The balance between safeguards mechanisms based on physical protection and material accounting, and the role of surveillance and containment in each case. 4. The role of information systems as a basis for both analytical feedback and the determination of the factors affecting system effectiveness and their interrelationship. 5. A determination of the degree to which the overall technical effectiveness of international inspection activities can be quantified. Each of these technical issues must be considered in light of the specific objectives of international safeguards, which differ from domestic safeguards in terms of the level of the threat, the safeguards mechanisms available, and the diversion strategies assumed. Their resolution in this international context is essential if the effectiveness and viability of international safeguards are to be maintained

Viewing the Future of University Research Libraries through the Perspectives of Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Cawthorne, Jon Edward

2013-01-01

This research highlights the scenarios that might serve as a strategic vision to describe a future beyond the current library, one which both guides provosts and creates a map for the transformation of human resources and technology in the university research libraries. The scenarios offer managerial leaders an opportunity to envision new roles…

Animal-cell culture media: History, characteristics, and current issues.

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Tatsuma; Asayama, Yuta

2017-04-01

Cell culture technology has spread prolifically within a century, a variety of culture media has been designed. This review goes through the history, characteristics and current issues of animal-cell culture media. A literature search was performed on PubMed and Google Scholar between 1880 and May 2016 using appropriate keywords. At the dawn of cell culture technology, the major components of media were naturally derived products such as serum. The field then gradually shifted to the use of chemical-based synthetic media because naturally derived ingredients have their disadvantages such as large batch-to-batch variation. Today, industrially important cells can be cultured in synthetic media. Nevertheless, the combinations and concentrations of the components in these media remain to be optimized. In addition, serum-containing media are still in general use in the field of basic research. In the fields of assisted reproductive technologies and regenerative medicine, some of the medium components are naturally derived in nearly all instances. Further improvements of culture media are desirable, which will certainly contribute to a reduction in the experimental variation, enhance productivity among biopharmaceuticals, improve treatment outcomes of assisted reproductive technologies, and facilitate implementation and popularization of regenerative medicine.

Spain: Current Issues and U.S. Policy

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Woehrel, Steven

2007-01-01

.... The United States and Spain have generally enjoyed good relations. However, problems have arisen in recent years over such issues as the war in Iraq, promoting democracy in Latin America, and the tactics to be used in fighting the war on terrorism...

Demonstration of ITER operational scenarios on DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyle, E.J.; DeBoo, J.C.; Ferron, J.R.; Jackson, G.L.; Luce, T.C.; Osborne, T.H.; Politzer, P.A.; Groebner, R.J.; Hyatt, A.W.; La Haye, R.J.; Petrie, T.W.; Petty, C.C.; Murakami, M.; Park, J.-M.; Reimerdes, H.; Budny, R.V.; Casper, T.A.; Holcomb, C.T.; Challis, C.D.; McKee, G.R.

2010-01-01

The DIII-D programme has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g. the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for β N and H 98 , have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modelling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios, normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of ≥400 MW of fusion power production and Q ≥ 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of edge localized modes, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the physics requirements for the poloidal field coil set at 15 MA, based on observations that the inductance in the baseline scenario case evolves to a value that lies outside the original ITER specification.

Demonstration of ITER Operational Scenarios on DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyle, E.J.; Budny, R.V.; DeBoo, J.C.; Ferron, J.R.; Jackson, G.L.; Luce, T.C.; Murakami, M.; Osborne, T.H.; Park, J.; Politzer, P.A.; Reimerdes, H.; Casper, T.A.; Challis, C.D.; Groebner, R.J.; Holcomb, C.T.; Hyatt, A.W.; La Haye, R.J.; McKee, G.R.; Petrie, T.W.; Petty, C.C.; Rhodes, T.L.; Shafer, M.W.; Snyder, P.B.; Strait, E.J; Wade, M.R.; Wang, G.; West, W.P.; Zeng, L.

2008-01-01

The DIII-D program has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g., the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for β N and H 98 , have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modeling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of (ge) 400 MW of fusion power production and Q (ge) 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of ELMs, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the specified operating range in internal inductance at 15 MA for the poloidal field coil set, based on observations that the measured inductance in the baseline scenario case lay outside the original ITER specification

Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

2009-10-01

The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

Research on decommissioning of nuclear facilities 2. Study on optimum scenario using the AHP (Joint research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shibahara, Yuji; Morishita, Yoshitsugu; Ishigami, Tsutomu; Yanagihara, Satoshi; Arita, Yuji

2013-01-01

To implement a decommissioning project reasonably, it is necessary and important to calculate project management data beforehand as well as to select an optimum dismantling scenario among various scenarios postulated. Little study on the subject of selecting an optimum scenario has been carried out, and it is one of the most important issues in terms of decision making. In FY 2009, Japan Atomic Energy Agency and University of Fukui launched the joint research of a decision making method which is important to determine a decommissioning plan. The purpose of this research is to formulate a methodology for selecting an optimum dismantling scenario among various scenarios postulated based on calculated results of project management data for FUGEN. Project management data for several dismantling scenarios postulated at FUGEN were evaluated based on actual dismantling work for feedwater heater at FUGEN, and an optimum scenario was discussed using the AHP, one of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Methods. This report describes the results of the joint research in FY 2010. (author)

Food scenarios 2025

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

Climate science informs participatory scenario development and applications to decision making in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Welling, L. A.; Winfree, R.; Mow, J.

2012-12-01

Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for managing natural and cultural resources into the future. Impacts are expected to be highly consequential but specific effects are difficult to predict, requiring a flexible process for adaptation planning that is tightly coupled to climate science delivery systems. Scenario planning offers a tool for making science-based decisions under uncertainty. The National Park Service (NPS) is working with the Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs), the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs), and other academic, government, non-profit, and private partners to develop and apply scenarios to long-range planning and decision frameworks. In April 2012, Alaska became the first region of the NPS to complete climate change scenario planning for every national park, preserve, and monument. These areas, which collectively make up two-thirds of the total area of the NPS, are experiencing visible and measurable effects attributable to climate change. For example, thawing sea ice, glaciers and permafrost have resulted in coastal erosion, loss of irreplaceable cultural sites, slope failures, flooding of visitor access routes, and infrastructure damage. With higher temperatures and changed weather patterns, woody vegetation has expanded into northern tundra, spruce and cedar diebacks have occurred in southern Alaska, and wildland fire severity has increased. Working with partners at the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning the NPS integrates quantitative, model-driven data with qualitative, participatory techniques to scenario creation. The approach enables managers to access and understand current climate change science in a form that is relevant for their decision making. Collaborative workshops conducted over the past two years grouped parks from Alaska's southwest, northwest, southeast, interior and central areas. The emphasis was to identify and connect

Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

2008-01-01

As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the

Use of Future Scenarios as a Pedagogical Approach for Science Teacher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Paige, Kathryn; Lloyd, David

2016-04-01

Futures studies is usually a transdisciplinary study and as such embraces the physical world of the sciences and system sciences and the subjective world of individuals and cultures, as well as the time dimension—past, present and futures. Science education, where student interests, opportunities and challenges often manifest themselves, can provide a suitable entry point for futures work. In this paper, we describe how we have used futures themes, concepts and techniques both implicitly and explicitly in our undergraduate middle school teacher education courses and, in particular, science curriculum and general studies courses. Taking a critical orientation to the past and the present in these courses enables the future to be more than a mere reproduction of the status quo and opens up a range of possible futures in the areas of current interest. For example, having studied middle school teaching and learning in mathematics and science, students explore the past, present and possible future of a natural part of a university campus. In a general studies course on the science of the Earth's atmosphere, students construct a normative futures scenario on living in a changing climate. One way to gain insight into an uncertain future is to construct scenarios. This technique has been used since the 1970s to bring issues of environment and development—areas with strong science content—to the attention of both scientists and policymakers.

Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

C. E. Kessel, D. Campbell, Y. Gribov, G. Saibene, G. Ambrosino, T. Casper, M. Cavinato, H. Fujieda, R. Hawryluk, L. D. Horton, A. Kavin, R. Kharyrutdinov, F. Koechl, J. Leuer, A. Loarte, P. J. Lomas, T. Luce, V. Lukash, M. Mattei, I.Nunes, V. Parail, A. Polevoi, A. Portone, R. Sartori, A.C.C. Sips, P. R. Thomas, A. Welander and J. Wesley

2008-01-01

The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation

Current Issues in Cosmology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barbour, J B [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester (United States)

2007-02-07

These colloquium proceedings will be valuable, the blurb says, for graduate students and researchers in cosmology and theoretical astrophysics. Specifically, the book 'looks at both the strengths and weaknesses of the current big bang model in explaining certain puzzling data' and gives a 'comprehensive coverage of the expanding field of cosmology'. The reality is rather different. Conference proceedings rarely compare in value with a solid monograph or good review articles, and Current Issues in Cosmology is no exception. The colloquium was convened by the two editors, who have both long harboured doubts about the big bang, and was held in Paris in June 2004. The proceedings contain 19 presented papers and relatively brief summary comments by four panel speakers. The questions and answers at the end of each talk and a general discussion at the end were recorded and transcribed but contain little of interest. The nature of the colloquium is indicated by panellist Francesco Bertola's comment: 'While in the 1950s it was possible to speak of rival theories in cosmology, now the big-bang picture has no strong rivals. This is confirmed by the fact that out of 1500 members of the IAU Division VIII (Galaxies and the Universe) only a dozen, although bright people, devote their time to the heterodox views.' This was largely a platform for them to give their views. At least half of the dozen, all the 'usual suspects', were present: Geoffery and Margaret Burbidge, Jayant Narlikar, Halton Arp, Chandra Wickramasinghe and, in spirit only but playing a role somewhat like the ghost of Hamlet's father, the late Fred Hoyle. Doubters presented 12 of the 19 papers. Orthodoxy should certainly be challenged and the sociology of science questioned, but I found two main problems with this book. The papers putting the orthodox view are too short, even perfunctory. The most that a serious graduate student would get out of them is a reference

Current Issues in Cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbour, J B

2007-01-01

These colloquium proceedings will be valuable, the blurb says, for graduate students and researchers in cosmology and theoretical astrophysics. Specifically, the book 'looks at both the strengths and weaknesses of the current big bang model in explaining certain puzzling data' and gives a 'comprehensive coverage of the expanding field of cosmology'. The reality is rather different. Conference proceedings rarely compare in value with a solid monograph or good review articles, and Current Issues in Cosmology is no exception. The colloquium was convened by the two editors, who have both long harboured doubts about the big bang, and was held in Paris in June 2004. The proceedings contain 19 presented papers and relatively brief summary comments by four panel speakers. The questions and answers at the end of each talk and a general discussion at the end were recorded and transcribed but contain little of interest. The nature of the colloquium is indicated by panellist Francesco Bertola's comment: 'While in the 1950s it was possible to speak of rival theories in cosmology, now the big-bang picture has no strong rivals. This is confirmed by the fact that out of 1500 members of the IAU Division VIII (Galaxies and the Universe) only a dozen, although bright people, devote their time to the heterodox views.' This was largely a platform for them to give their views. At least half of the dozen, all the 'usual suspects', were present: Geoffery and Margaret Burbidge, Jayant Narlikar, Halton Arp, Chandra Wickramasinghe and, in spirit only but playing a role somewhat like the ghost of Hamlet's father, the late Fred Hoyle. Doubters presented 12 of the 19 papers. Orthodoxy should certainly be challenged and the sociology of science questioned, but I found two main problems with this book. The papers putting the orthodox view are too short, even perfunctory. The most that a serious graduate student would get out of them is a reference to a far better review article or book on modern

Current issues in electromagnetic knockout reactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giusti, C.

2002-01-01

The role of correlations and two-body currents in one-nucleon emission reactions induced by an electromagnetic probe is discussed. The theoretical framework for cross section calculations is outlined and some results are presented for the exclusive "1"6O(e,e'p) "1"5N and "1"6O(γ, p) "1"5N reactions in relativistic and nonrelativistic models. A reliable and consistent evaluation of different types of correlations is needed to determine the spectroscopic factors. A consistent description of (e,e'p) and (γ, p) data, with the same spectroscopic factors, can be obtained when meson-exchange currents (MEC) are included in the theoretical model. MEC give an important contribution to (γ, p) cross sections and have only a small effect in (e, e'p). In the relativistic model the two-body seagull current affects the calculated cross sections less than in the nonrelativistic calculations.

LMFBR safety. 2. Review of current issues and bibliography of literature, 1970--1972

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchanan, J.R.; Keilholtz, G.W.

1976-01-01

This report discusses the current status of liquid-metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) development and one of the principal safety issues, a hypothetical core-disruptive accident (HCDA). Bibliographic information on worldwide LMFBRs relative to the development of the breeder reactor as a safe source of nuclear power is presented for the period 1970 through 1972. The bibliography consists of approximately 1620 abstracts covering early research and development and operating experiences leading up to the present design practices that are necessary for the licensing of breeder reactors. Key-word, author, and permuted-title indexes are included for completeness

LMFBR safety. 4. Review of current issues and bibliography of literature (1974--1975)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buchanan, J.R.; Keilholtz, G.W.

1977-03-21

This report discusses the current status of liquid-metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) development and one of the principal safety issues, a hypothetical core-disruptive accident (HCDA). Bibliographic information on worldwide LMFBRs relative to the development of the breeder reactor as a safe source of nuclear power is presented for the period 1974 through 1975. The bibliography consists of approximately 1554 abstracts covering early research and development and operating experiences leading up to the present design practices that are necessary for the licensing of breeder reactors. Key-word, author, and permuted-title indexes are included for completeness.

LMFBR safety. 4. Review of current issues and bibliography of literature (1974--1975)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchanan, J.R.; Keilholtz, G.W.

1977-01-01

This report discusses the current status of liquid-metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) development and one of the principal safety issues, a hypothetical core-disruptive accident (HCDA). Bibliographic information on worldwide LMFBRs relative to the development of the breeder reactor as a safe source of nuclear power is presented for the period 1974 through 1975. The bibliography consists of approximately 1554 abstracts covering early research and development and operating experiences leading up to the present design practices that are necessary for the licensing of breeder reactors. Key-word, author, and permuted-title indexes are included for completeness

LMFBR safety. 2. Review of current issues and bibliography of literature, 1970--1972

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buchanan, J.R.; Keilholtz, G.W.

1976-11-22

This report discusses the current status of liquid-metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) development and one of the principal safety issues, a hypothetical core-disruptive accident (HCDA). Bibliographic information on worldwide LMFBRs relative to the development of the breeder reactor as a safe source of nuclear power is presented for the period 1970 through 1972. The bibliography consists of approximately 1620 abstracts covering early research and development and operating experiences leading up to the present design practices that are necessary for the licensing of breeder reactors. Key-word, author, and permuted-title indexes are included for completeness.

Current and projected water demand and water availability estimates under climate change scenarios in the Weyib River basin in Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

2017-07-01

This study intended to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of current and projected water demand and water availability under climate change scenarios in Weyib River basin, Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia. Future downscaled climate variables from three Earth System Models under the three RCP emission scenarios were inputted into ArcSWAT hydrological model to simulate different components of water resources of a basin whereas current and projected human and livestock population of the basin is considered to estimate the total annual water demand for various purposes. Results revealed that the current total annual water demand of the basin is found to be about 289 Mm3, and this has to increase by 83.47% after 15 years, 200.67% after 45 years, and 328.78% after 75 years by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period water demand mainly due to very rapid increasing population (40.81, 130.80, and 229.12% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively) and climatic variability. The future average annual total water availability in the basin is observed to be increased by ranging from 15.04 to 21.61, 20.08 to 23.34, and 16.21 to 39.53% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time slice, respectively, from base period available water resources (2333.39 Mm3). The current water availability per capita per year of the basin is about 3112.23 m3 and tends to decline ranging from 11.78 to 17.49, 46.02 to 47.45, and 57.18 to 64.34% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period per capita per year water availability. This indicated that there might be possibility to fall the basin under water stress condition in the long term.

Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthias Albert

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Background Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we (1 characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios, (2 analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and (3 quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress. Methods In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs (minimum, median, maximum based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development. Results The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive. Conclusions Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario, but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate

N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Lotze-Campen

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Reactive nitrogen (Nr is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, it is crucial to understand the long-term development of the global agricultural Nr cycle. For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the Nr cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines. Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the Nr applied to croplands was incorporated into plant biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all Nr in cropland plant biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the Nr cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7–9 in 2045 and 5–12 Tg in 2095. Reinforced Nr pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required.

Biomass production potentials in Central and Eastern Europe under different scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dam, J. van; Faaij, A.P.C.; Lewandowski, I.; Fischer, G.

2007-01-01

A methodology for the assessment of biomass potentials was developed and applied to Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC). Biomass resources considered are agricultural residues, forestry residues, and wood from surplus forest and biomass from energy crops. Only land that is not needed for food and feed production is considered as available for the production of energy crops. Five scenarios were built to depict the influences of different factors on biomass potentials and costs. Scenarios, with a domination of current level of agricultural production or ecological production systems, show the smallest biomass potentials of 2-5.7 EJ for all CEEC. Highest potentials can reach up to 11.7 EJ (85% from energy crops, 12% from residues and 3% from surplus forest wood) when 44 million ha of agricultural land become available for energy crop production. This potential is, however, only realizable under high input production systems and most advanced production technology, best allocation of crop production over all CEEC and by choosing willow as energy crops. The production of lignocellulosic crops, and willow in particular, best combines high biomass production potentials and low biomass production costs. Production costs for willow biomass range from 1.6 to 8.0 EUR/GJ HHV in the scenario with the highest agricultural productivity and 1.0-4.5 EUR/GJ HHV in the scenario reflecting the current status of agricultural production. Generally the highest biomass production costs are experienced when ecological agriculture is prevailing and on land with lower quality. In most CEEC, the production potentials are larger than the current energy use in the more favourable scenarios. Bulk of the biomass potential can be produced at costs lower than 2 EUR/GJ. High potentials combined with the low cost levels gives CEEC major export opportunities. (author)

Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Ali Rajaeifar, Mohammad; Tabatabaei, Meisam; Ghanavati, Hossein

2015-01-01

Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0), landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1), incineration (Sc-2), incineration combined with composting (Sc-3), and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4). The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6). The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4). PMID:26217743

Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Ali Rajaeifar

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0, landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1, incineration (Sc-2, incineration combined with composting (Sc-3, and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4. The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6. The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4.

Ownership, allocating and balancing issues for natural gas in the common stream

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onn, W.D.

1997-01-01

The contentious issues of ownership, allocation and balancing of natural gas in the common stream were discussed. The potential influence of recent developments such as the construction of new pipelines, the NCL/Solex dispute at Taylor, B.C., and the political and regulatory responses to these developments were cited as examples of how the issues could be resolved. Currently some 80 per cent of Canada's natural gas production is transported by the Nova Pipeline System, a system comprising 21,700 km of pipeline, 938 receipt and 166 delivery points in Alberta. Gas in the system is co-mingled and receipts and deliveries are balanced on an energy basis. Agreements currently in place do not provide for recognizing the added value of natural gas liquid (NGL) components. It is believed that increased NGL value can only be provided by modification of the current system. Key elements in modifying the system were discussed at some length. These include component tracking, ownership and control of NGL by producer or shippers on the Nova System, and the role of straddle plants in a modified system. Various scenarios, some including participation of straddle plants, others that do not include them, have been proposed. The position of stake holders and other implications of the suggested changes to the current system were also reviewed

Review on security issues in RFID systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamed El Beqqal

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Radio frequency Identification (RFID is currently considered as one of the most used technologies for an automatic identification of objects or people. Based on a combination of tags and readers, RFID technology has widely been applied in various areas including supply chain, production and traffic control systems. However, despite of its numerous advantages, the technology brings out many challenges and concerns still not being attracting more and more researchers especially the security and privacy issues. In this paper, we review some of the recent research works using RFID solutions and dealing with security and privacy issues, we define our specific parameters and requirements allowing us to classify for each work which part of the RFID system is being secured, the solutions and the techniques used besides the conformity to RFID standards. Finally, we present briefly a solution that consists of combining RFID with smartcard based biometric to enhance security especially in access control scenarios. Hence the result of our study aims to give a clear vision of available solutions and techniques used to prevent and secure the RFID system from specific threats and attacks.

Tradeoffs between Maize Silage Yield and Nitrate Leaching in a Mediterranean Nitrate-Vulnerable Zone under Current and Projected Climate Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Basso, Bruno; Giola, Pietro; Dumont, Benjamin; Migliorati, Massimiliano De Antoni; Cammarano, Davide; Pruneddu, Giovanni; Giunta, Francesco

2016-01-01

Future climatic changes may have profound impacts on cropping systems and affect the agronomic and environmental sustainability of current N management practices. The objectives of this work were to i) evaluate the ability of the SALUS crop model to reproduce experimental crop yield and soil nitrate dynamics results under different N fertilizer treatments in a farmer’s field, ii) use the SALUS model to estimate the impacts of different N fertilizer treatments on NO3- leaching under future climate scenarios generated by twenty nine different global circulation models, and iii) identify the management system that best minimizes NO3- leaching and maximizes yield under projected future climate conditions. A field experiment (maize-triticale rotation) was conducted in a nitrate vulnerable zone on the west coast of Sardinia, Italy to evaluate N management strategies that include urea fertilization (NMIN), conventional fertilization with dairy slurry and urea (CONV), and no fertilization (N0). An ensemble of 29 global circulation models (GCM) was used to simulate different climate scenarios for two Representative Circulation Pathways (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and evaluate potential nitrate leaching and biomass production in this region over the next 50 years. Data collected from two growing seasons showed that the SALUS model adequately simulated both nitrate leaching and crop yield, with a relative error that ranged between 0.4% and 13%. Nitrate losses under RCP8.5 were lower than under RCP6.0 only for NMIN. Accordingly, levels of plant N uptake, N use efficiency and biomass production were higher under RCP8.5 than RCP6.0. Simulations under both RCP scenarios indicated that the NMIN treatment demonstrated both the highest biomass production and NO3- losses. The newly proposed best management practice (BMP), developed from crop N uptake data, was identified as the optimal N fertilizer management practice since it minimized NO3- leaching and maximized biomass production over

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

2016-07-24

There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

Flux consumption, current ramp-up and current diffusion in Tore Supra non-inductive Lower Hybrid scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazarian, F.; Litaudon, X.; Moreau, D.; Arslanbekov, R.; Hoang, G.T.; Joffrin, E.; Peysson, Y.; Allibert, J.P.; Ane, J.M.; Bremond, S.

1995-01-01

The main objective of the Lower Hybrid (LH) experiments performed on Tore Supra is to provide large flux savings for long pulse operation while controlling the plasma current density profile. This goal will be best achieved by applying LH wave directly during the current ramp-up phase. Experiments have been performed where a large fraction of the current is driven non-inductively during the ramp-up phase. A theoretical flux consumption scaling is presented and compared to experimental data. The time evolutions of the current density profiles are analysed with a new current diffusion code (CRONOS). In view to achieve fully non-inductive current drive discharges in a fast, systematic and reproducible way, experiments where the primary voltage is imposed have been carried out. In a complementary approach, an appropriate transformer flux feedback scheme has been also studied. (author) 6 refs.; 6 figs

Integrative Scenario Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joerg A. Priess

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

Multi-modal Virtual Scenario Enhances Neurofeedback Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Avihay Cohen

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In the past decade neurofeedback has become the focus of a growing body of research. With real-time fMRI enabling on-line monitoring of emotion related areas such as the amygdala, many have begun testing its therapeutic benefits. However most existing neurofeedback procedures still use monotonic uni-modal interfaces, thus possibly limiting user engagement and weakening learning efficiency. The current study tested a novel multi-sensory neurofeedback animated scenario aimed at enhancing user experience and improving learning. We examined whether relative to a simple uni-modal 2D interface, learning via an interface of complex multi-modal 3D scenario will result in improved neurofeedback learning. As a neural-probe, we used the recently developed fMRI-inspired EEG model of amygdala activity (amygdala-EEG finger print; amygdala-EFP, enabling low-cost and mobile limbic neurofeedback training. Amygdala-EFP was reflected in the animated scenario by the unrest level of a hospital waiting-room in which virtual characters become impatient, approach the admission-desk and complain loudly. Successful down-regulation was reflected as an ease in the room unrest-level. We tested whether relative to a standard uni-modal 2D graphic thermometer interface, this animated scenario could facilitate more effective learning and improve the training experience. Thirty participants underwent two separated neurofeedback sessions (one-week apart practicing down-regulation of the amygdala-EFP signal. In the first session, half trained via the animated scenario and half via a thermometer interface. Learning efficiency was tested by three parameters: (a effect-size of the change in amygdala-EFP following training, (b sustainability of the learned down-regulation in the absence of online feedback, and (c transferability to an unfamiliar context. Comparing amygdala-EFP signal amplitude between the last and the first neurofeedback trials revealed that the animated scenario

Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shawn R. Francis

2011-12-01

We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

The joint SKI/SKB scenario development project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Johan

1989-12-01

The Swedish Nuclear Power and Swedish Nuclear Waste Management Co. have carried through a joint scenario development exercise of a hypothetical repository for spent fuel and high level waste based on the KBS-3 concept as disposal method. The starting point has been the 'Sandia methodology', but the actual implementation of the steps in this method has required new strategy development. The work started with a relatively large internationally composed group meeting, which identified an extensive list of features, events and processes (FEPs) that might influence the long term performance of a repository. All these FEPs as well as its possible causes and consequences have been entered into a computer database. The next step in the development was to remove from the list approximately 30 FEPs of low probability or negligible consequence. In a following step a large number of the FEPs on the original list were assigned to the 'PROCESS SYSTEM', comprising the complete set of 'deterministic' chemical and physical processes that might influence the release from the repository to the biosphere. A scenario is defined by a set of external conditions which will influence the processes in the PROCESS SYSTEM. Approximately 50 FEPs were left representing external conditions. The remaining FEPs could all be combined to form scenarios, but it is concluded that it is not meaningful to discuss combinations without first analysing the consequence and probability of the individual conditions. An important aspect of the work is that the developed strategy includes a framework for the documentation of the complete chain of scenario development. Such a transparent documentation makes possible an extensive review and updating of the set of scenarios. A reviewing process, open to very broad groups in the society, is probably the best means of assuring reasonable completeness and of building up a general consensus on what are the critical issues for the safe disposal of radioactive waste

Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinson, P.; Girard, R.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Presentation of the desirable properties of wind power generation scenarios. ► Description of various evaluation frameworks (univariate, multivariate, diagnostic). ► Highlighting of the properties of current approaches to scenario generation. ► Guidelines for future evaluation/benchmark exercises. -- Abstract: Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multistage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benefits from their use in decision-making. So far however, their verification is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verification tools, as well as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verification are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools.

Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation: Five Important Issues We Aren’t Discussing (But Probably Should Be

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jared Cooney Horvath

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS is a neuromodulatory device often publicized for its ability to enhance cognitive and behavioral performance. These enhancement claims, however, are predicated upon electrophysiological evidence and descriptions which are far from conclusive. In fact, a review of the literature reveals a number of important experimental and technical issues inherent with this device that are simply not being discussed in any meaningful manner. In this paper, we will consider five of these topics. The first, inter-subject variability, explores the extensive between- and within-group differences found within the tDCS literature and highlights the need to properly examine stimulatory response at the individual level. The second, intra-subject reliability, reviews the lack of data concerning tDCS response reliability over time and emphasizes the importance of this knowledge for appropriate stimulatory application. The third, sham stimulation and blinding, draws attention to the importance (yet relative lack of proper control and blinding practices in the tDCS literature. The fourth, motor and cognitive interference, highlights the often overlooked body of research that suggests typical behaviors and cognitions undertaken during or following tDCS can impair or abolish the effects of stimulation. Finally, the fifth, electric current influences, underscores several largely ignored variables (such as hair thickness and electrode attachments methods influential to tDCS electric current density and flow.Through this paper, we hope to increase awareness and start an ongoing dialogue of these important issues which speak to the efficacy, reliability, and mechanistic foundations of tDCS.

LHC benchmark scenarios for the real Higgs singlet extension of the standard model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robens, Tania; Stefaniak, Tim

2016-01-01

We present benchmark scenarios for searches for an additional Higgs state in the real Higgs singlet extension of the Standard Model in Run 2 of the LHC. The scenarios are selected such that they fulfill all relevant current theoretical and experimental constraints, but can potentially be discovered at the current LHC run. We take into account the results presented in earlier work and update the experimental constraints from relevant LHC Higgs searches and signal rate measurements. The benchmark scenarios are given separately for the low-mass and high-mass region, i.e. the mass range where the additional Higgs state is lighter or heavier than the discovered Higgs state at around 125 GeV. They have also been presented in the framework of the LHC Higgs Cross Section Working Group. (orig.)

Current Therapeutic Cannabis Controversies and Clinical Trial Design Issues

OpenAIRE

Russo, Ethan B.

2016-01-01

This overview covers a wide range of cannabis topics, initially examining issues in dispensaries and self-administration, plus regulatory requirements for production of cannabis-based medicines, particularly the Food and Drug Administration “Botanical Guidance.” The remainder pertains to various cannabis controversies that certainly require closer examination if the scientific, consumer, and governmental stakeholders are ever to reach consensus on safety issues, specifically: whether botanica...

[Domestic violence: a current issue to take into account in diagnostic imaging].

Science.gov (United States)

Santos Corraliza, E; Larrañaga Hernando, G; Neve Lete, I; Sánchez García, A

2014-01-01

Domestic violence is currently an issue of great political and social importance. The real incidence of domestic violence is difficult to determine due to the environment where it takes place and the reluctance of victims to report abuse. On the other hand, all types of violence represent an important public health problem. We report the case of a young woman who presented with thromboembolic phenomena at different sites due to domestic violence. We emphasize that it is necessary for radiologists and other healthcare professionals to consider the possibility of domestic violence when establishing the diagnosis. This can be important for determining the incidence of abuse, diminishing its sequela, and help increase its reporting. Copyright © 2011 SERAM. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.

2015-12-01

Scenarios provide a framework to develop more adaptive Arctic policies that allow decision makers to consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild-cards that represent low likelihood but influential events such as major environmental disasters. We outline some of the lessons learned from the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) scenarios project that could help in the development of adaptive science-based policies. Three spatially explicit development scenarios were identified corresponding to low, medium and high resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. In the case of the high energy development scenario science needs were focused on new technology, oil spill response, and the effects of offshore activities on marine mammals important for subsistence. Science needs related to community culture, erosion, permafrost degradation and hunting and trapping on land were also identified for all three scenarios. The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future observing efforts, and data from these observing activities could subsequently improve policy guidance for emergency response, subsistence management and other issues. Scenarios at pan-Arctic scales may help improve the development of international policies for resilient northern communities and encourage the use of science to reduce uncertainties in plans for adapting to change in the Arctic.

Gas allocation plans based on failures scenarios: PETROBRAS-Gas and Power Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faertes, Denise; Vieira, Flavia; Saker, Leonardo; Heil, Luciana [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Galvao, Joao [DNV, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2009-07-01

The purpose of this paper is to present gas allocation plans developed for PETROBRAS Gas and Power Sector, considering failure to supply scenarios that could occur along gas supply network. Those scenarios, as well as the associated contingency plans, were identified and validated by an experienced team, composed by engineers and operators from different PETROBRAS sectors. The key issue of concern was the anticipation of possible undesired scenarios that could imply on contract shortfalls, the evaluation of possible maneuvers, taking into account best gas delivery allocation. Different software were used for the simulation of best gas supply allocation and for the verification of delivery pressure and conditions for final consumers. The ability of being capable of dealing with undesired or crisis scenarios, based on suitable anticipation levels, is, nowadays, a highly valuable attribute to be presented by competitive corporations, for best crisis management and prompt recovery response. Those plans are being used by Gas and Power Gas Operation Control Centre and as an input for reliability modeling of gas supply chain. (author)

SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qi, L.; Hao, J.; Lu, M.

1995-01-01

Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO 2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on the eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. 'Optimistic', 'Pessimistic' and 'Business as Usual' scenarios were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO 2 emission from 1990 to 2020. A 'Top-down' approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO 2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO 2 control situation. Emission level for each 1 degree longitude x 1 degree latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO 2 sources. The results show that SO 2 emission in China will increase rapidly, if the current situation for energy saving and SO 2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010. Realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. The share of eastern China in the country's total emission would increase until 2000, while the general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of the whole country. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

Climate Scenarios for the NASA / USAID SERVIR Project: Challenges for Multiple Planning Horizons

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Roberts, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Funk, C.; Bosilovich, M. G.

2014-01-01

SERVIR, an acronym meaning "to serve" in Spanish, is a joint venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) which provides satellite-based Earth observation data, modeling, and science applications to help developing nations in Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas improve environmental decision making. Anticipating climate variability / climate change impacts has now become an important component of the SERVIR efforts to build capacity in these regions. Uncertainty in hydrometeorological components of climate variations and exposure to extreme events across scales from weather to climate are of particular concern. We report here on work to construct scenarios or outlooks that are being developed as input drivers for decision support systems (DSSs) in a variety of settings. These DSSs are being developed jointly by a broad array NASA Applied Science Team (AST) Investigations and user communities in the three SERVIR Hub Regions, Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas. Issues span hydrologic / water resources modeling, agricultural productivity, and forest carbon reserves. The scenarios needed for these efforts encompass seasonal forecasts, interannual outlooks, and likely decadal / multi-decadal trends. Providing these scenarios across the different AST efforts enables some level of integration in considering regional responses to climate events. We will discuss a number of challenges in developing this continuum of scenarios including the identification and "mining" of predictability, addressing multiple continental regions, issues of downscaling global model integrations to regional / local applications (i.e. hydrologic and crop modeling). We compare / contrast the role of the U.S. National Multi- Model Experiment initiative in seasonal forecasts and the CMIP-5 climate model experiments in supporting these efforts. Examples of these scenarios, their use, and an assessment of their utility as well as limitations will

Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

2005-01-01

Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

Welfare, Prosperity and Quality of the Living Environment. A scenario study for the Netherlands in 2040

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janssen, L.H.J.M.; Okker, V.R.; Schuur, J.

2006-01-01

Long-term trends such as the decreasing household size, the ageing population, international migration, economic growth, and increasing personal welfare, will change the Dutch natural and built environment significantly. This national foresight exercise analyses the combined impact of these trends on various aspects of the Dutch urban and rural landscape, including residential and industrial land use, traffic and transport, energy, agriculture, nature and landscape, water safety, and environment and health. Quantitative forecasts illustrate these trends as well as their effect on the natural and built environment. The study assesses the long-term effects of current policy, given the international economic and demographic context of the Netherlands. Its qualitative and quantitative results should serve as a reference for policy-makers involved in spatial planning, housing, natural resources, infrastructure, and the environment. By exploring how land use and various aspects of the living environment may develop on the long run (2040), the study shows when current policy objectives may come under pressure, and which new issues may emerge. The long-term future of the Dutch population and economic development and, consequently, of its natural and built environment is highly dependent on international factors. Two critical factors of uncertainty stand out: (1) to which extent will nations and international trade blocks cooperate and exchange, giving up some of their cultural identity and sovereignty? (2) how will governments balance between market forces and a strong public sector? These international political choices determine four possible scenarios for the Netherlands: Global Economy: emphasis on international cooperation and private responsibilities; Strong Europe: emphasis on international cooperation and public responsibilities; Transatlantic Markets: emphasis on national sovereignty and private responsibilities; and Regional Communities: emphasis on national

Severe accident analysis to prevent high pressure scenarios in the EPR TM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azarian, G.; Gandrille, P.; Gasperini, M.; Klein, R.

2010-01-01

The EPR TM has incorporated several design features in order to specifically address major severe accident safety issues. In particular, it was designed with the objective to transfer high pressure core melt scenarios into a low pressure scenario with high reliability so that a high pressure vessel failure can be practically eliminated. It is the key issue in the defense-in-depth approach, for a postulated severe accident with core melting, to prevent any risk of containment failure due to possible Direct Containment Heating or due to reactor vessel rocketing which results from vessel failure at high pressure. Temperature-induced steam generator tube rupture, which could lead to a radiological containment bypass, has also to be prevented. On the basis of the analysis of the main high pressure core melt scenarios which are calculated with the MAAP4.07 code which was developed to support the EPR TM, this paper explores the benefits of primary depressurization by dedicated valves on transient evolutions. It specifically addresses the thermal response of the structures by sensitivity studies involving the timing of valve actuation. It outlines that a grace period of at least one hour is available for a delayed valve actuation without inducing excessive loads and without increasing the risk of a temperature-induced steam generator tube rupture. (authors)

Current status of international training center for nuclear security and security issues in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Jong-UK; Sin, Byung Woo

2013-01-01

During the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) President Lee declared that Korea will establish an international training center (ITC) for nuclear security near the Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control (KINAC). It will be open to the world in 2014. The government's long term goal is to make the center a hub for education and training in the nuclear field in Asia. The ITC will accomplish this by establishing facilities for practical and realistic exercises through the use of a test bed and various other experiments. The center will also provide comprehensive educational programs for nuclear newcomers. Its main programs include: a well designed educational program, customized training courses, and on-the-job training. This paper will discuss the current status of the ITC and describe practical plans for solving current security issues in Korea. (authors)

Scenarios for future agriculture in Finland: a Delphi study among agri-food sector stakeholders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. RIKKONEN

2008-12-01

Full Text Available This article presents alternative scenarios for future agriculture in Finland up to 2025. These scenarios are the results of a large Delphi study carried out among Finnish agri-food sector stakeholders. The Delphi panel members gave their future view on desirable and probable futures. From these two dimensions, three scenarios were elaborated through the future images – the subjective future path and the importance analysis. The scenarios represent a technology optimistic “day-dream agriculture”, a probable future as “industrialised agriculture” and an undesirable future path as “drifting agriculture”. Two mini-scenarios are also presented. They are based on a discontinuity event as an unexpected impact of climate change and an analogy event as an ecological breakdown due to the expansive animal disease epidemics. In both mini-scenarios, the directions of storylines are dramatically changed. The scenarios support strategic planning introducing not only one forecast but alternative outcomes as a basis for future strategy and decisions. In this study the scenarios were constructed to address the opportunities as a desired vision and also the threats as to an undesirable future in the agricultural sector. These results bring to the table a Finnish agri-food expert community view of the future directions of relevant key issues in the agricultural policy agenda.;

Data mining of mental health issues of non-bone marrow donor siblings.

Science.gov (United States)

Takita, Morihito; Tanaka, Yuji; Kodama, Yuko; Murashige, Naoko; Hatanaka, Nobuyo; Kishi, Yukiko; Matsumura, Tomoko; Ohsawa, Yukio; Kami, Masahiro

2011-07-20

Allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is a curative treatment for patients with advanced hematologic malignancies. However, the long-term mental health issues of siblings who were not selected as donors (non-donor siblings, NDS) in the transplantation have not been well assessed. Data mining is useful in discovering new findings from a large, multidisciplinary data set and the Scenario Map analysis is a novel approach which allows extracting keywords linking different conditions/events from text data of interviews even when the keywords appeared infrequently. The aim of this study is to assess mental health issues on NDSs and to find helpful keywords for the clinical follow-up using a Scenario Map analysis. A 47-year-old woman whose younger sister had undergone allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation 20 years earlier was interviewed as a NDS. The text data from the interview transcriptions was analyzed using Scenario Mapping. Four clusters of words and six keywords were identified. Upon review of the word clusters and keywords, both the subject and researchers noticed that the subject has had mental health issues since the disease onset to date with being a NDS. The issues have been alleviated by her family. This single subject study suggested the advantages of data mining in clinical follow-up for mental health issues of patients and/or their families.

WATER RESOURCES STATUS AND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT IN CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR BEAS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH WESTERN HIMALAYA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. P. Aggarwal

2016-10-01

precipitation and daily surface wind speed. The GFDL model also gives validation phase scenarios from 2006 to 2015, which are used to test the overall model performance with current data. The current assessment made by hydrological water balance based approach has given reasonable good results in Beas river basin. The main limitation of this study is lack of full representation of glacier melt flow using fully energy balance model. This component will be addressed in coming time and it will be integrated with tradition hydrological and snowmelt runoff models. The other limitation of current study is dependence on NCEP or other reanalysis of climate forcing data for hydrological modelling, this leads to mismatch between actual and simulated water balance components. This problem can be addressed if more ground based and fine resolution grid based hydro meteorological data are used as input forcing data for hydrological modelling.

Water Resources Status and Availability Assessment in Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios for Beas River Basin of North Western Himalaya

Science.gov (United States)

Aggarwal, S. P.; Thakur, P. K.; Garg, V.; Nikam, B. R.; Chouksey, A.; Dhote, P.; Bhattacharya, T.

2016-10-01

daily surface wind speed. The GFDL model also gives validation phase scenarios from 2006 to 2015, which are used to test the overall model performance with current data. The current assessment made by hydrological water balance based approach has given reasonable good results in Beas river basin. The main limitation of this study is lack of full representation of glacier melt flow using fully energy balance model. This component will be addressed in coming time and it will be integrated with tradition hydrological and snowmelt runoff models. The other limitation of current study is dependence on NCEP or other reanalysis of climate forcing data for hydrological modelling, this leads to mismatch between actual and simulated water balance components. This problem can be addressed if more ground based and fine resolution grid based hydro meteorological data are used as input forcing data for hydrological modelling.

A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Fuchs

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country, plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30–100 m remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems. Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as

Carbon reduction scenarios for 2050: An explorative analysis of public preferences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, Patricia; Chatterton, Tim

2013-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of public preferences for a low carbon future UK and compares them with three future scenarios proposed by the UK government based on data from 10,983 self-selected participants who engaged in the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change ‘My2050’ online simulation. Participants expressed a stronger preference for demand-side options than for supply-side ones. They also chose fuel switching (to electricity) and technical energy efficiency measures above more behaviour focused options. Renewable energy options (wind, solar, marine and hydro) were preferred to other low carbon supply options (nuclear power, carbon capture and storage), with offshore wind power more popular than onshore. Nuclear power was the least popular generation option. Acceptability of the government′s three proposed scenarios was tested by comparing these scenarios with the research findings. Greatest support was suggested for the two scenarios emphasising business greenness, home energy efficiency, electrification of home heating and travel behaviour. The lowest level of support was demonstrated for the scenario based on significant growth in nuclear power with minimal increases in energy efficiency. Despite issues regarding the representivity of the sampled respondents, the work demonstrates the possibility of using outputs from the tool to assess publically preferred pathways. - Highlights: • Examination of >10,000 initial responses to UK government ‘My 2050’ simulation. • A number of patterns were identified in the responses. • Participants preferred renewable energy options to other low carbon supply options. • The alignment of public preferences with government scenarios was assessed. • The value of scenario simulations for public engagement was demonstrated with caveats

Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Gelfan, Alexander; Moreydo, Vsevolod; Motovilov, Yury; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

2018-04-01

A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia), is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast), and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast). We have studied the following: (1) whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2) whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form) outperform the operational forecasts of the April-June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period) obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.

Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Gelfan

2018-04-01

Full Text Available A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia, is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast, and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast. We have studied the following: (1 whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2 whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form outperform the operational forecasts of the April–June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

1995-12-31

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

1995-01-01

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

1995-01-01

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

2006-01-01

Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

Suitability of high-current standing-wave linac technology for ultra-relativistic electron beam propagation experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moir, D.C.; Faehl, R.J.; Newberger, B.S.; Thode, L.E.

1981-01-01

Near-term development of the existing PHERMEX standing-wave linac would provide a 40 to 60 MeV electron beam with a current of 3 kA capable of answering a number of fundamental issues concerning endoatmospheric, ultra-relativistic electron beam propagation. Inherent high-repetition rate and multiple-pulse capability would allow alternative propagation scenarios to be investigated. Much of the theoretical expertise required to support the technology development and time-resolved beam propagation experiments presently resides within the Theoretical Applications Division

Scenarios for cutting down energy-related climate gas emissions in Germany; Szenarien zur Minderung energiebedingten Klimagasemissionen in Deutschland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hake, J.F.; Kuckshinrichs, W. [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (STE)

1998-12-31

Developing successful strategies for cutting down climate gas emissions is an extremely complex task. This goal can be aimed at by a combination of measures. But the results of individual scenarios are no immediate clue to their practicability. The results of scenarios must always be discussed within the context of the assumptions made and, where applicable, the targets set. Consequently, their informative value is limited. The contribution of scenarios to the answering of energy-political issues is that they define possible scope for action. (orig.)

The Significance of Content Knowledge for Informal Reasoning regarding Socioscientific Issues: Applying Genetics Knowledge to Genetic Engineering Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Sadler, Troy D.; Zeidler, Dana L.

2005-01-01

This study focused on informal reasoning regarding socioscientific issues. It sought to explore how content knowledge influenced the negotiation and resolution of contentious and complex scenarios based on genetic engineering. Two hundred and sixty-nine students drawn from undergraduate natural science and nonnatural science courses completed a…

Nuclear energy and fuel mix. Impacts of new nuclear power plants after 2020 in the nuclear energy scenarios of the Energy Report 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seebregts, A.J.; Snoep, H.J.M.; Van Deurzen, J.; Lako, P.; Poley, A.D.

2010-03-01

This report presents facts and figures on new nuclear energy in the Netherlands, in the period after 2020. The information is meant to support a stakeholder discussion process on the role of new nuclear power in the transition to a sustainable energy supply for the Netherlands. The report covers a number of issues relevant to the subject. Facts and figures on the following issues are presented: Nuclear power and the power market (including impact of nuclear power on electricity market prices); Economic aspects (including costs of nuclear power and external costs and benefits, impact on end user electricity prices); The role of nuclear power with respect to security of supply; Sustainability aspects, including environmental aspects; The impact of nuclear power in three 'nuclear energy scenarios' for the Netherlands, within the context of a Northwest European energy market. The scenarios are: (1a) No new nuclear power in the Netherlands ('Base case'); (1b) After closure of the existing Borssele nuclear power plant by the end of 2033, the construction of new nuclear power plant that will operate in 2040. That plant is assumed to be designed not to have a serious core melt down accident (e.g. PBMR) (200 to 500 MWe); (2) New nuclear power shortly after closure the Borssele nuclear power plant in 2033 (1000 to 1600 MWe, 3rd Generation); (3) New nuclear power plants shortly after 2020 (2000 to 5000 MWe, 3rd Generation). Two electricity demand scenario background scenario variants have been constructed based on an average GDP growth of about 2% per year up to 2040. The first variant is based on a steadily growing electricity demand and on currently established NL and EU policies and instruments. It is expected to be largely consistent with a new and forthcoming reference projection 'Energy and Emissions 2010-2020' for the Netherlands (published by ECN and PBL in 2010). A lower demand variant is based on additional energy savings and on higher shares of renewable

Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krey, Volker; Martinsen, Dag; Wagner, Hermann-Josef

2007-01-01

In view of the currently observed energy prices, recent price scenarios, which have been very moderate until 2004, also tend to favor high future energy prices. Having a large impact on energy-economic scenarios, we incorporate uncertain energy prices into an energy systems model by including a stochastic risk function. Energy systems models are frequently used to aid scenario analysis in energy-related studies. The impact of uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in the demand sectors is the focus of the present paper. For the illustration of the methodological approach, scenarios for four EU countries are presented. Including the stochastic risk function, elements of high energy price scenarios can be found in scenarios with a moderate future development of energy prices. In contrast to scenarios with stochastic investment costs for a limited number of technologies, the inclusion of stochastic energy prices directly affects all parts of the energy system. Robust elements of hedging strategies include increasing utilization of domestic energy carriers, the use of CHP and district heat and the application of additional energy-saving measures in the end-use sectors. Region-specific technology portfolios, i.e., different hedging options, can cause growing energy exchange between the regions in comparison with the deterministic case. (author)

Psychosocial issues during an expedition to Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Kanas, Nick

2014-10-01

Much is known about psychological and interpersonal issues affecting astronauts participating in manned space missions near the Earth. But in a future long-distance, long-duration expedition to Mars, additional stressors will occur that will result in psychological, psychiatric, and interpersonal effects on the crew, both negative and positive. This paper will review what is known about important psychosocial issues in space and will extrapolate them to the scenario of a future manned space mission to Mars.

Combined RF current drive and bootstrap current in tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultz, S. D.; Bers, A.; Ram, A. K.

1999-01-01

By calculating radio frequency current drive (RFCD) and the bootstrap current in a consistent kinetic manner, we find synergistic effects in the total noninductive current density in tokamaks [1]. We include quasilinear diffusion in the Drift Kinetic Equation (DKE) in order to generalize neoclassical theory to highly non-Maxwellian electron distributions due to RFCD. The parallel plasma current is evaluated numerically with the help of the FASTEP Fokker-Planck code [2]. Current drive efficiency is found to be significantly affected by neoclassical effects, even in cases where only circulating electrons interact with the waves. Predictions of the current drive efficiency are made for lower hybrid and electron cyclotron wave current drive scenarios in the presence of bootstrap current

Creating pedestrian crash scenarios in a driving simulator environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Chrysler, Susan T; Ahmad, Omar; Schwarz, Chris W

2015-01-01

In 2012 in the United States, pedestrian injuries accounted for 3.3% of all traffic injuries but, disproportionately, pedestrian fatalities accounted for roughly 14% of traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2014 ). In many other countries, pedestrians make up more than 50% of those injured and killed in crashes. This research project examined driver response to crash-imminent situations involving pedestrians in a high-fidelity, full-motion driving simulator. This article presents a scenario development method and discusses experimental design and control issues in conducting pedestrian crash research in a simulation environment. Driving simulators offer a safe environment in which to test driver response and offer the advantage of having virtual pedestrian models that move realistically, unlike test track studies, which by nature must use pedestrian dummies on some moving track. An analysis of pedestrian crash trajectories, speeds, roadside features, and pedestrian behavior was used to create 18 unique crash scenarios representative of the most frequent and most costly crash types. For the study reported here, we only considered scenarios where the car is traveling straight because these represent the majority of fatalities. We manipulated driver expectation of a pedestrian both by presenting intersection and mid-block crossing as well as by using features in the scene to direct the driver's visual attention toward or away from the crossing pedestrian. Three visual environments for the scenarios were used to provide a variety of roadside environments and speed: a 20-30 mph residential area, a 55 mph rural undivided highway, and a 40 mph urban area. Many variables of crash situations were considered in selecting and developing the scenarios, including vehicle and pedestrian movements; roadway and roadside features; environmental conditions; and characteristics of the pedestrian, driver, and vehicle. The driving simulator scenarios were subjected to iterative testing to

Based on user interest level of modeling scenarios and browse content

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yang

2017-08-01

User interest modeling is the core of personalized service, taking into account the impact of situational information on user preferences, the user behavior days of financial information. This paper proposes a method of user interest modeling based on scenario information, which is obtained by calculating the similarity of the situation. The user's current scene of the approximate scenario set; on the "user - interest items - scenarios" three-dimensional model using the situation pre-filtering method of dimension reduction processing. View the content of the user interested in the theme, the analysis of the page content to get each topic of interest keywords, based on the level of vector space model user interest. The experimental results show that the user interest model based on the scenario information is within 9% of the user's interest prediction, which is effective.

Prospect for Charge Current Neutrino Interactions Measurements at the CERN-PS

CERN Document Server

Bernardini, P; Bozza, C; Brugnera, R; Cecchetti, A; Cecchini, S; Collazuol, G; Corso, F Dal; De Mitri, I; De Serio, M; Di Ferdinando, D; Dore, U; Dusini, S; Fabbricatore, P; Fanin, C; Fini, R A; Garfagnini, A; Grella, G; Kose, U; Laveder, M; Loverre, P; Longhin, A; Marsella, G; Mancarella, G; Mandrioli, G; Mauri, N; Medinaceli, E; Mezzetto, M; Muciaccia, M T; Orecchini, D; Paoloni, A; Pastore, A; Patrizii, L; Pozzato, M; Rescigno, R; Rosa, G; Simone, S; Sioli, M; Sirri, G; Spurio, M; Stanco, L; Stellacci, S; Surdo, A; Tenti, M; Togo, V

2011-01-01

Tensions in several phenomenological models grew with experimental results on neutrino/antineutrino oscillations at Short-Baseline (SBL) and with the recent, carefully recomputed, antineutrino fluxes from nuclear reactors. At a refurbished SBL CERN-PS facility an experiment aimed to address the open issues has been proposed [1], based on the technology of imaging in ultra-pure cryogenic Liquid Argon (LAr). Motivated by this scenario a detailed study of the physics case was performed. We tackled specific physics models and we optimized the neutrino beam through a full simulation. Experimental aspects not fully covered by the LAr detection, i.e. the measurements of the lepton charge on event-by-event basis and their energy over a wide range, were also investigated. Indeed the muon leptons from Charged Current (CC) (anti-)neutrino interactions play an important role in disentangling different phenomenological scenarios provided their charge state is determined. Also, the study of muon appearance/disappearance ca...

Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

2007-05-15

Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

Current status of environmental, health, and safety issues of electrochemical capacitors for advanced vehicle applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vimmerstedt, L J; Hammel, C J

1997-04-01

Electrochemical capacitors are a candidate for traction power assists in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). Other advanced automotive applications, while not the primary focus of current development efforts, are also possible. These include load leveling high-energy batteries, power conditioning electronics, electrically hated catalysts, electric power steering, and engine starter power. Higher power and longer cycle life are expected for electrochemical capacitors than for batteries. Evaluation of environmental, health, and safety (EH and S) issues of electrochemical capacitors is an essential part of the development and commercialization of electrochemical capacitors for advanced vehicles. This report provides an initial EH and S assessment. This report presents electrochemical capacitor electrochemistry, materials selection, intrinsic material hazards, mitigation of those hazards, environmental requirements, pollution control options, and shipping requirements. Most of the information available for this assessment pertains to commercial devices intended for application outside the advanced vehicle market and to experiment or prototype devices. Electrochemical capacitors for power assists in HEVs are not produced commercially now. Therefore, materials for advanced vehicle electrochemical capacitors may change, and so would the corresponding EH and S issues. Although changes are possible, this report describes issues for likely electrochemical capacitor designs.

Current bioethical issues in parasitology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boury D.

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Parasitic diseases constitute the most common infections among the poorest billion people, entailing high mortality rates and leading to long-term infirmities and poverty. Although the setting-up of public health programs implies many ethical consequences, the range of specific questions in parasitology that can be attributed to bioethics remains, to a large extent, unexplored. From the present analysis, it emerged three main issues which characterize ethical stakes in parasitology: accounting the complexity of the field of intervention, putting the principle of justice into practice and managing the changing context of research. From the research angle, medical parasitology-mycology, as other biological disciplines, is undergoing tensions derived from biological reductionism. Thanks to its links with the history and philosophy of the sciences, bioethics can help to clarify them and to explain the growing hold that technologies have over scientific thinking. On the whole, researchers as well as clinicians are called on to assume a specific responsibility, proportional to their competence and their place in the making of scientific, health, economic and social decisions.

Plasma control issues for an advanced steady state tokamak reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moreau, D.

2001-01-01

This paper deals with specific control issues related to the advanced tokamak scenarios in which rather accurate tailoring of the current density profile is a requirement in connection with the steady state operation of a reactor in a high confinement optimized shear mode. It is found that adequate current profile control can be performed if real-time magnetic flux reconstruction is available through a set of dedicated diagnostics and computers, with sufficient accuracy to deduce the radial profile of the safety factor and of the internal plasma loop voltage. It is also shown that the safety factor can be precisely controlled in the outer half of the plasma through the surface loop voltage and the off-axis current drive power, but that a compromise must be made between the accuracy of the core safety factor control and the total duration of the current and fuel density ramp-up phases, so that the demonstration of the steady state reactor potential of the optimized/reversed shear concept in the Next Step device will demand pulse lengths of the order of one thousand seconds (or more for an ITER-size machine). (author)

Plasma control issues for an advanced steady state tokamak reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moreau, D.; Voitsekhovitch, I.

1999-01-01

This paper deals with specific control issues related to the advanced tokamak scenarios in which rather accurate tailoring of the current density profile is a requirement in connection with the steady state operation of a reactor in a high confinement optimized shear mode. It is found that adequate current profile control can be performed if real-time magnetic flux reconstruction is available through a set of dedicated diagnostics and computers, with sufficient accuracy to deduce the radial profile of the safety factor and of the internal plasma loop voltage. It is also shown that the safety factor can be precisely controlled in the outer half of the plasma through the surface loop voltage and the off-axis current drive power, but that a compromise must be made between the accuracy of the core safety factor control and the total duration of the current and fuel density ramp-up phases, so that the demonstration of the steady state reactor potential of the optimized/reversed shear concept in the Next Step device will demand pulse lengths of the order of one thousand seconds (or more for an ITER-size machine). (author)

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2018-03-01

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

The use of physical indicators for industrial energy demand scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schenk, Niels J.; Moll, Henri C.

2007-01-01

Scientific information on the size and nature of the threat of climate change is needed by politicians in order to weight their decisions. Computerised models are extremely useful tools to quantify the long-term effects of current policies. This paper describes a new modelling approach that allows formulation of industrial energy demand projections consistent with the assumptions for scenario drivers such as GDP and population. In the model, a level of industrial production is used as a key variable, and we define it in physical units, rather than in monetary units. The aim of this research is to increase insights that come with long-term energy demand scenarios. This research clearly shows that physical indicators provide additional insights in scenario analysis. The use of physical indicators instead of monetary indicators seems to affect the energy scenarios significantly. The differences with monetary indicators are larger in developing regions than in OECD regions. We conclude that an integrated energy and materials approach reveals developments that are hardly visible using a monetary approach. Moreover, this research shows the potential and benefits of the use of physical indicators for scenario development. (author)

Sustainability of UK shale gas in comparison with other electricity options: Current situation and future scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Jasmin; Stamford, Laurence; Azapagic, Adisa

2018-04-01

Many countries are considering exploitation of shale gas but its overall sustainability is currently unclear. Previous studies focused mainly on environmental aspects of shale gas, largely in the US, with scant information on socio-economic aspects. To address this knowledge gap, this paper integrates for the first time environmental, economic and social aspects of shale gas to evaluate its overall sustainability. The focus is on the UK which is on the cusp of developing a shale gas industry. Shale gas is compared to other electricity options for the current situation and future scenarios up to the year 2030 to investigate whether it can contribute towards a more sustainable electricity mix in the UK. The results obtained through multi-criteria decision analysis suggest that, when equal importance is assumed for each of the three sustainability aspects shale gas ranks seventh out of nine electricity options, with wind and solar PV being the best and coal the worst options. However, it outranks biomass and hydropower. Changing the importance of the sustainability aspects widely, the ranking of shale gas ranges between fourth and eighth. For shale gas to become the most sustainable option of those assessed, large improvements would be needed, including a 329-fold reduction in environmental impacts and 16 times higher employment, along with simultaneous large changes (up to 10,000 times) in the importance assigned to each criterion. Similar changes would be needed if it were to be comparable to conventional or liquefied natural gas, biomass, nuclear or hydropower. The results also suggest that a future electricity mix (2030) would be more sustainable with a lower rather than a higher share of shale gas. These results serve to inform UK policy makers, industry and non-governmental organisations. They will also be of interest to other countries considering exploitation of shale gas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment and modeling of inductive and non-inductive scenarios for ITER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boucher, D.; Vayakis, G.; Moreau, D.

1999-01-01

This paper presents recent developments in modeling and simulations of ITER performances and scenarios. The first part presents an improved modeling of coupled divertor/main plasma operation including the simulation of the measurements involved in the control loop. The second part explores the fusion performances predicted under non-inductive operation with internal transport barrier. The final part covers a detailed scenario for non-inductive operation using a reverse shear configuration with lower hybrid and fast wave current drive. (author)

An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

Science.gov (United States)

Labiosa, Bill; Forney, William M.; Hearn,, Paul P.; Hogan, Dianna M.; Strong, David R.; Swain, Eric D.; Esnard, Ann-Margaret; Mitsova-Boneva, D.; Bernknopf, R.; Pearlstine, Leonard; Gladwin, Hugh

2013-01-01

Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

Scenarios of the Oil Industry of Croatia and the Region: Qualitative Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radoslav Barišić

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The oil industry is historically burdened by different turbulences and tremors having the significant impact on the market. In order to anticipate unforeseen and potentially harmful situations, some firms as a part of their long-term strategic plans pay attention to scenario-based planning, which is a useful technique for preparation of appropriate strategy and responses to potential unforeseen emergencies. Scenario planning is used for a detailed analysis of the current situation in the market and potential future development, creating a research framework for creating development scenarios. Scenario planning is especially highlighted in the context of oil industry considering the technique actually originated in this business (it was also used in previous military doctrine, where, because of using a scenario-based planning, some oil companies profited and gained a privileged position. The aim of the paper is to provide an insight into the importance and various approaches in using scenario planning today and explain the potential long-term scenarios in the oil industry of Croatia and the region, obtained by means of qualitative research and in-depth interviews with a number of experts in the field of oil industry.

[Current status and issues in development of occupational physicians in Japan].

Science.gov (United States)

Mori, Koji

2013-10-01

Training systems for occupational physicians (OPs) have existed since the Industrial Safety and Health Act was enacted in 1972. However, it is necessary to enhance them because of changes in the business environment of Japanese corporations and working patterns have brought about new needs of occupational health (OH) activities. In this paper, OPs were classified into three categories; doctors who spend a part of working time on OH activities, i.e. "non-specialist OPs", doctors who engage in OH activities full-time, i.e. "specialists OPs", and doctors who manage corporate-wide occupational health programs or lead programs at OH service institutes, i.e. "lead OPs", and the status and the issues were reviewed. The major concern identified for each of the three categories in training were found to be quality management for non-specialist OPs, short supply for specialists OPs, and development of competencies such as leadership and management skills for lead OPs, respectively. Current efforts and ideas to improve the training systems were discussed.

Nutrient inputs and hydrology together determine biogeochemical status of the Loire River (France): Current situation and possible future scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Garnier, Josette; Ramarson, Antsiva; Billen, Gilles; Théry, Sylvain; Thiéry, Dominique; Thieu, Vincent; Minaudo, Camille; Moatar, Florentina

2018-05-10

The Grafs-Seneque/Riverstrahler model was implemented for the first time on the Loire River for the 2002-2014 period, to explore eutrophication after improvement of wastewater treatments. The model reproduced the interannual levels and seasonal trends of the major water quality variables. Although eutrophication has been impressively reduced in the drainage network, a eutrophication risk still exists at the coast, as shown by the N-ICEP indicator, pointing out an excess of nitrogen over silica and phosphorus. From maximum biomass exceeding 120 μgChla l -1 in the 1980's, we observed decreasing maximum values from 80 to 30 μgChla l -1 during the period studied. Several scenarios were explored. Regarding nutrient point sources, a low wastewater treatment scenario, similar to the situation in the 1980's, was elaborated, representing much greater pollution than the reference period (2002-2014). For diffuse sources, two agricultural scenarios were elaborated for reducing nitrogen, one with a strict application of the agricultural directives and another investigating the impact of radical structural changes in agriculture and the population's diet. Although reduced, a risk of eutrophication would remain, even with the most drastic scenario. In addition, a pristine scenario, with no human activity within the basin, was devised to assess water quality in a natural state. The impact of a change in hydrology on the Loire biogeochemical functioning was also explored according to the effect of climate change by the end of the 21st century. The EROS hydrological model was used to force Riverstrahler, considering the most pessimistic SRES A2 scenario run with the ARPEGE model. Nutrient fluxes all decreased due to a >50% reduction in the average annual discharge, overall reducing the risk of coastal eutrophication, but worsening the water quality status of the river network. The Riverstrahler model could be useful to help water managers contend with future threats in the

Magnetohydrodynamic modes analysis and control of Fusion Advanced Studies Torus high-current scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Villone, F.; Mastrostefano, S. [Euratom-ENEA-CREATE Ass., DIEI, Univ. di Cassino e Lazio Merid., Cassino (Italy); Calabrò, G.; Vlad, G.; Crisanti, F.; Fusco, V. [C. R. Frascati, Euratom-ENEA Ass., Via E. Fermi 45, 00044 Frascati (Italy); Marchiori, G.; Bolzonella, T.; Marrelli, L.; Martin, P. [Cons. RFX, Euratom-ENEA-RFX Ass., Corso Stati Uniti 4, 35127 Padova (Italy); Liu, Y. Q. [Euratom/CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Mantica, P. [IFP-CNR, Euratom-ENEA-CNR Ass. Via Cozzi 53, 20125 Milano (Italy)

2014-08-15

One of the main FAST (Fusion Advanced Studies Torus) goals is to have a flexible experiment capable to test tools and scenarios for safe and reliable tokamak operation, in order to support ITER and help the final DEMO design. In particular, in this paper, we focus on operation close to a possible border of stability related to low-q operation. To this purpose, a new FAST scenario has then been designed at I{sub p} = 10 MA, B{sub T} = 8.5 T, q{sub 95} ≈ 2.3. Transport simulations, carried out by using the code JETTO and the first principle transport model GLF23, indicate that, under these conditions, FAST could achieve an equivalent Q ≈ 3.5. FAST will be equipped with a set of internal active coils for feedback control, which will produce magnetic perturbation with toroidal number n = 1 or n = 2. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mode analysis and feedback control simulations performed with the codes MARS, MARS-F, CarMa (both assuming the presence of a perfect conductive wall and using the exact 3D resistive wall structure) show the possibility of the FAST conductive structures to stabilize n = 1 ideal modes. This leaves therefore room for active mitigation of the resistive mode (down to a characteristic time of 1 ms) for safety purposes, i.e., to avoid dangerous MHD-driven plasma disruption, when working close to the machine limits and magnetic and kinetic energy density not far from reactor values.

Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

2008-01-01

This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

Doubly-Special Relativity: Facts, Myths and Some Key Open Issues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Amelino-Camelia

2010-03-01

Full Text Available I report, emphasizing some key open issues and some aspects that are particularly relevant for phenomenology, on the status of the development of “doubly-special” relativistic (“DSR” theories with both an observer-independent high-velocity scale and an observer-independent small-length/large-momentum scale, possibly relevant for the Planck-scale/quantum-gravity realm. I also give a true/false characterization of the structure of these theories. In particular, I discuss a DSR scenario without modification of the energy-momentum dispersion relation and without the қ-Poincaré Hopf algebra, a scenario with deformed Poincaré symmetries which is not a DSR scenario, some scenarios with both an invariant length scale and an invariant velocity scale which are not DSR scenarios, and a DSR scenario in which it is easy to verify that some observable relativistic (but non-special-relativistic features are insensitive to possible nonlinear redefinitions of symmetry generators.

Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae in climate change scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Moo-Llanes

Full Text Available Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i potential change in niche breadth, ii direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3, for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%, while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N.; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A.; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M.

2013-01-01

Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. PMID:24069478

Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA). Volume III. Institutional barriers to developing power generation facilities in the Pacific Northwest

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morris, F. A.; Sawyer, C. H.; Maxwell, J. H.

1979-10-01

The Regional Assessments Division in the US Department of Energy (DOE) has undertaken a program to assess the probable consequences of various national energy policies in regions of the United States and to evaluate the constraints on national energy policy imposed by conditions in these regions. The program is referred to as the Regional Issues Identification and Assessment (RIIA) Program. Currently the RIIA Program is evaluating the Trendlong Mid-Mid scenario, a pattern of energy development for 1985 and 1990 derived from the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES) model. This scenario assumes a medium annual growth rate in both the national demand for and national supply of energy. It has been disaggregated to specify the generating capacity to be supplied by each energy source in each state. Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) has the responsibility for evaluating the scenario for the Federal Region 10, consisting of Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. PNL is identifying impacts and constraints associated with realizing the scenario in a variety of categories, including air and water quality impacts, health and safety effects, and socioeconomic impacts. This report summarizes the analysis of one such category: institutional constraints - defined to include legal, organizational, and political barriers to the achievement of the scenario in the Northwest.

Decommissioning of offshore oil and gas facilities: a comparative assessment of different scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Ekins, Paul; Vanner, Robin; Firebrace, James

2006-06-01

A material and energy flow analysis, with corresponding financial flows, was carried out for different decommissioning scenarios for the different elements of an offshore oil and gas structure. A comparative assessment was made of the non-financial (especially environmental) outcomes of the different scenarios, with the reference scenario being to leave all structures in situ, while other scenarios envisaged leaving them on the seabed or removing them to shore for recycling and disposal. The costs of each scenario, when compared with the reference scenario, give an implicit valuation of the non-financial outcomes (e.g. environmental improvements), should that scenario be adopted by society. The paper concludes that it is not clear that the removal of the topsides and jackets of large steel structures to shore, as currently required by regulations, is environmentally justified; that concrete structures should certainly be left in place; and that leaving footings, cuttings and pipelines in place, with subsequent monitoring, would also be justified unless very large values were placed by society on a clear seabed and trawling access.

Development of the Role Scenario of the Personnel Management Specialist Activity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stolyaruk Khrystyna S.

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted of the issues of development of classification and content of role, which are performed by personnel management specialists in their professional activity. It proves a necessity of development of role scenarios under conditions of application of the competence approach in training and practical activity. Thus, the author offers five key roles in activity of a personnel management specialist, which reflect different vectors of directions of the scenario of professional activity regardless of the performed function and position. The article specifies the following roles in the offered classification: partner, expert, communicator, consultant and curator. It presents results of a sociological study, which demonstrate the degree of co-ordination of opinions of employers and practicing personnel managers with respect to performance of roles in the sphere by their professional activity by the latter. This helps to identify a number of problems, which include the problem of availability of reserves of increase of the level of competence of personnel management specialists. This issue, in its turn, closely deals with main aspects of formation of competitiveness of the said specialists, since the degree of formation of competences is the key condition of formation of competitive advantages.

Current Fragmentation and Particle Acceleration in Solar Flares

Science.gov (United States)

Cargill, P. J.; Vlahos, L.; Baumann, G.; Drake, J. F.; Nordlund, Å.

2012-11-01

Particle acceleration in solar flares remains an outstanding problem in plasma physics and space science. While the observed particle energies and timescales can perhaps be understood in terms of acceleration at a simple current sheet or turbulence site, the vast number of accelerated particles, and the fraction of flare energy in them, defies any simple explanation. The nature of energy storage and dissipation in the global coronal magnetic field is essential for understanding flare acceleration. Scenarios where the coronal field is stressed by complex photospheric motions lead to the formation of multiple current sheets, rather than the single monolithic current sheet proposed by some. The currents sheets in turn can fragment into multiple, smaller dissipation sites. MHD, kinetic and cellular automata models are used to demonstrate this feature. Particle acceleration in this environment thus involves interaction with many distributed accelerators. A series of examples demonstrate how acceleration works in such an environment. As required, acceleration is fast, and relativistic energies are readily attained. It is also shown that accelerated particles do indeed interact with multiple acceleration sites. Test particle models also demonstrate that a large number of particles can be accelerated, with a significant fraction of the flare energy associated with them. However, in the absence of feedback, and with limited numerical resolution, these results need to be viewed with caution. Particle in cell models can incorporate feedback and in one scenario suggest that acceleration can be limited by the energetic particles reaching the condition for firehose marginal stability. Contemporary issues such as footpoint particle acceleration are also discussed. It is also noted that the idea of a "standard flare model" is ill-conceived when the entire distribution of flare energies is considered.

Current uranium mill licensing issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scarano, R.A.

1977-01-01

The problems encountered to insure environmentally safe mining and milling of uranium ores are reviewed. Emphasis is placed on the management of tailings resulting from milling operations. It is pointed out that although the concentration of radioactivity in the tailings is relatively low, control measures are necessary because of the large quantities involved and because of the long half-life of the parent radionuclides present. The major concerns with mill tailings are radon release to the atmosphere and isolation of the tailings from the human environment. Since it is anticipated that the amount of tailings created by the year 2000 will be more than an order of magnitude greater than the quantities that have been generated during the past 30 years, it is recommended that all mill tailings storage areas be located remote from public contact and in areas such that disruption and dispersion by natural forces and seepage of toxic materials into ground water systems are reduced to the maximum extent achievable. Technical issues that receive attention during the NRC licensing process for uranium mills and the preparation of environmental impact statements are discussed briefly

The ITER poloidal field configuration and operation scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gribov, Y.; Portone, A.; Mondino, P.L.

1995-01-01

The ITER Poloidal Field (PF) system must satisfy the following requirements. (1) ITER must have a well-controlled, single null divertor magnetic configuration with nominal plasma current 21MA and moderate plasma elongation k95 < 1.65. (2) For a variety of plasma scenarios the ITER PF system must provide: inductive breakdown and start-up in an expanding-aperture limiter configuration near the outboard first wall; an inductive current ramp-up to the nominal plasma current with a reasonable assumption of resistive loss during current ramp-up; a pulse length of 1,000s for ignition and inductively-sustained burn at nominal plasma current; plasma shutdown (following fusion power termination) in a similar contracting-aperture limiter configuration. The present design of the PF system can satisfy the ITER requirements within specified limitations

Photoinduced current and emission induced by current in a ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

... Refresher Courses · Symposia · Live Streaming. Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 86; Issue 3. Photoinduced current and emission induced by current in a nanowire transistor: Temperature dependence. Darehdor Mahvash Arabi Shahtahmassebi Nasser. Regular Volume 86 Issue 3 March 2016 pp ...

A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morales, J.M.; Conejo, A.J. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Univ. Castilla - La Mancha, Campus Universitario s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Minguez, R. [Environmental Hydraulics Institute ' ' IH Cantabria' ' , Univ. Cantabria, Avenida de los Castros s/n, 39005 Santander (Spain)

2010-03-15

Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn. (author)

A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morales, J.M.; Minguez, R.; Conejo, A.J.

2010-01-01

Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn.

Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2009-01-01

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

Future waste treatment and energy production – an example of development of joint scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Münster, Marie; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

2012-01-01

Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. The article gives practical examples of how this has been done in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are m...

Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandrowski, M.S.

1988-01-01

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

Potential recovery of industrial wood and energy wood raw material in different cutting and climate scenarios for Finland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaerkkaeinen, Leena; Nuutinen, Tuula; Matala, Juho; Kellomaeki, Seppo; Haerkoenen, Kari

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the simultaneous recovery of industrial wood and raw material for energy wood from cuttings in Finland during the next 50 years. Two cutting scenarios (maximum and sustainable cuttings) and two climate scenarios (current and changing climate) were analysed to determine their impacts on harvesting potential. The analysis was carried out using sample plot and tree data from the ninth National Forest Inventory and a management-oriented large-scale forestry model (MELA) into which the transfer functions based on physiological modelling were incorporated to describe the impacts of climate change. Depending on the climate scenario, the volume of potential recovery of industrial wood in the maximum cutting scenario during the period 2003-2013 varied from 103 to 105 million m 3 a -1 , while the amount of potential energy wood raw material was 35 Tg a -1 . During the period 2043-2053, in the current climate scenario, the potential recovery of industrial wood was 64 million m 3 a -1 and energy wood raw material 22 Tg a -1 , and in the changing climate scenario, 85 million m 3 a -1 and 29 Tg a -1 , respectively. In the sustainable cutting scenario, depending on the climate scenario used, the potential recovery of industrial wood during the period 2003-2013 varied from 74 to 76 million m 3 a -1 , while the amount of potential energy wood was 25 Tg a -1 . During the period 2043-2053, in the current climate scenario, the potential recovery of industrial wood was 80 million m 3 a -1 and energy wood raw material 26 Tg a -1 , and in the changing climate scenario, 88 million m 3 a -1 and 29 Tg a -1 , respectively. (author)

A BRIEF ANALYSIS OF THE TOURISM SECTOR - CURRENT TRENDS AND ISSUES IN THE BULGARIAN TOURIST BUSINESS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kostadin Valkov

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Thе analysis presented in current article deepens and summarizes the results of an economic study focused on the management of human resources in the sector "Tourism". The expected changes in organizational and technological terms are taken into account. The law on tourism in the Republic of Bulgaria and the types of taxes that directly and indirectly affect those employed in tourism are considered. Leading accents are the current trends and issues that arise from the lack of skilled workers in this sector and their deficit caused by the seasonal nature of employment. Growing gray economy is concerned as a major obstacle to development of the tourism industry and its future.

Human intrusion: issues concerning its assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grimwood, P.D.; Smith, G.M.

1989-01-01

The potential significance of human intrusion in the performance assessment of radioactive waste repositories has been increasingly recognized in recent years. It is however an area of assessment in which subjective judgments dominate. This paper identifies some of the issues involved. These include regulatory criteria, scenario development, probability assignment, consequence assessment and measures to mitigate human intrusion

Combining lifecycle and risk assessments of mineral waste reuse scenarios for decision making support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Perrodin, Yves

2007-01-01

Lack of regulations and standards on mineral waste recycling makes Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) useful methods for environmental assessment of recycling scenarios. An unsolved problem arises whenever two scenarios of recycling have to be compared according to both ERA and LCA impact results considered simultaneously. A methodology to combine LCA and ERA results and tools toward Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is proposed together with three application examples based on case studies. The most effective combination approach is to define further impact categories for ERA to be considered with the standard LCA ones. Then, the use of a multicriteria analysis method was proved to be an efficient way to rank alternative scenarios with respect to all the results. The key issues to be further researched are discussed and proposals are suggested

Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

1992-01-01

The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

Current Issues for Higher Education Information Resources Management.

Science.gov (United States)

CAUSE/EFFECT, 1996

1996-01-01

Issues identified as important to the future of information resources management and use in higher education include information policy in a networked environment, distributed computing, integrating information resources and college planning, benchmarking information technology, integrated digital libraries, technology integration in teaching,…

An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu Zhixi; Bai, Hongtao; Xu He; Zhu Tan

2011-01-01

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word 'scenario' appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

2006-07-01

The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

2006-01-01

The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

A human factors experiment on the event-paced control tasks issue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Hyun Chul; Park, Jae Chang; Oh, In Seok; Lee, Jung Woon; Lee, Ki Young; Park, Jong Kyun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

2000-03-01

KEPRI(Korea Electric Power Research Institute) requires human factors validation tests according to the progress of the KNGR MMI design. This report describes the experimental results of an human factors validation issue, Event-Paced Control Tasks issue. The Event-Paced Control Task issue is to test that the designed MMI shall support operators in performing control tasks in pace with the plant dynamics. Task completion time and successful execution are defined as performance measures on the issue. Through an experiment on the issue with 3 scenarios and 5 subjects, we report that the variation of task completion time between subjects has a narrow band for each scenarios, however two among the total 15 experimental runs result in the failure that subject does not reach to the predefined operational goal. Incorrect operational strategy, insufficient training, and MMI design discrepancies are inferred as the causes of the failures. However these experimental results don't indicate the close of the Event-Paced Control Tasks issue. The validation test results under the experimental environment composed of the partial MMI representations, an unstable simulator, and insufficient subject training, are significant in the limited conditions. Thus, for the purpose of the complete issue close, the validation test on the Event-Paced Control Tasks issue should be repeatedly carried out in pace with the performance improvement of the experimental environment. 13 figs., 4 tabs. (Author)

The future of nuclear power in China: Long-term scenarios - 5129

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paltsev, S.; Zhang, D.

2015-01-01

Nuclear power will play an important role in reaching China government's 2020 goal of raising the proportion of energy produced by non-fossil fuel to 15 percent and stabilizing carbon emissions by 2030. It will also contribute to lower air pollution emissions. In the medium scenario, nuclear power development is constrained by the available sites verified in preliminary explorations. The installed nuclear power capacity reaches 160 GW by 2050. Nuclear generation grows ten times relative to the current capacity, but a share of nuclear power is still only 10% of total electricity generation in China by 2050. In the high scenario, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 400 GW by 2050, which provides about 30% of electricity by 2050. In the low scenario of no licensing for new sites, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 95 GW by 2050. For environmental impacts, in 2050 high scenario leads to about 20% reduction in total China's CO 2 emissions and about 25% reduction in a major air pollutant SO 2 relative to medium scenario. Availability of relatively cheap natural gas for electricity mostly replaces coal-based generation while keeping similar profiles for nuclear generation as in the high cost natural gas scenarios. (authors)

Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

2016-01-01

This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

Multi-scenario electromagnetic load analysis for CFETR and EAST magnet systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Weiwei; Liu, Xufeng, E-mail: lxf@ipp.ac.cn; Du, Shuangsong; Song, Yuntao

2017-01-15

Highlights: • A multi-scenario force-calculating simulator for Tokamak magnet system is developed using interaction matrix method. • The simulator is applied to EM analysis of CFETR and EAST magnet system. • The EM loads on CFETR magnet coils at different typical scenarios and the EM loads acting on magnet system of EAST as function of time for different shots are analyzed with the simulator. • Results indicate that the approach can be conveniently used for multi-scenario and real-time EM analysis of Tokamak magnet system. - Abstract: A technology for electromagnetic (EM) analysis of the current-carrying components in tokamaks has been proposed recently (Rozov, 2013; Rozov and Alekseev, 2015). According to this method, the EM loads can be obtained by a linear transform of given currents using the pre-computed interaction matrix. Based on this technology, a multi-scenario force-calculating simulator for Tokamak magnet system is developed using Fortran programming in this paper. And the simulator is applied to EM analysis of China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) and Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) magnet system. The pre-computed EM interaction matrices of CFETR and EAST magnet system are implanted into the simulator, then the EM loads on CFETR magnet coils at different typical scenarios are evaluated with the simulator, and the comparison of the results with ANSYS method results validates the efficiency and accuracy of the method. Using the simulator, the EM loads acting on magnet system of EAST as function of time for different shots are further analyzed, and results indicate that the approach can be conveniently used for the real-time EM analysis of Tokamak magnet system.

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site (U)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

1992-01-01

Environmental Restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site (SRS) begin with the characterization of inactive hazardous, radioactive and mixed waste disposal areas by a combined Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Remedial Investigation (Rl) followed by evaluation of remedial alternatives in a RCRA Corrective Measures Study (CMS)/CERCLA Feasibility Study (FS). A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed during the RFVRI characterization to determine if there are any potential risks to human health or the environment from the waste unit. If it is determined that there is need for remedial action, a Risk Evaluation of Remedial Alternatives (RERA) is performed as part of the CMS/FS to provide a basis for selecting a remedy that is protective of human health and the environment. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFI/RI and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the seeping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using

Characterization and inventories of nuclear materials and wastes for possible future energy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arthur, E.D.

1997-10-01

Awareness of the total materials inventory and materials balance associated with differing methods for energy generation is part of present day concerns associated with disparate areas that include atmospheric emissions, resource utilization, health effects, and both current and long term hazards and risks. Nuclear energy, for a number of decades, has been the recipient of significant scrutiny concerning the materials and wastes it generates, particularly in the context of long term solutions to such issues. This paper examines the nuclear materials and waste generation for nuclear energy scenarios spanning the coming century. The paper also briefly addresses wastes (in the form of emissions) from other energy sources and examines requirements associated with backend energy system materials management. Possible future requirements pertaining to CO 2 management are found to place conditions upon waste management generally similar to those for nuclear waste. One example of material flows for the case of coal generation of electricity coupled with carbon sequestration is also given

Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-15

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-01

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

Current and emerging occupational safety and health (OSH) issues in the healthcare sector, including home and community care

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jong, T. de; Bos, E.; Pawlowska-Cyprysiak, K.; Hildt-Ciupinska, K.; Malinska, M.; Nicolescu, G.; Trifu, A.

2014-01-01

This report gives an overview of the current and emerging OSH issues for health- and social care workers and how these affect their safety and health at work and influence the quality of care they provide. It combines a literature review and the responses received to a questionnaire sent to OSH

Security issues in healthcare applications using wireless medical sensor networks: a survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Pardeep; Lee, Hoon-Jae

2012-01-01

Healthcare applications are considered as promising fields for wireless sensor networks, where patients can be monitored using wireless medical sensor networks (WMSNs). Current WMSN healthcare research trends focus on patient reliable communication, patient mobility, and energy-efficient routing, as a few examples. However, deploying new technologies in healthcare applications without considering security makes patient privacy vulnerable. Moreover, the physiological data of an individual are highly sensitive. Therefore, security is a paramount requirement of healthcare applications, especially in the case of patient privacy, if the patient has an embarrassing disease. This paper discusses the security and privacy issues in healthcare application using WMSNs. We highlight some popular healthcare projects using wireless medical sensor networks, and discuss their security. Our aim is to instigate discussion on these critical issues since the success of healthcare application depends directly on patient security and privacy, for ethic as well as legal reasons. In addition, we discuss the issues with existing security mechanisms, and sketch out the important security requirements for such applications. In addition, the paper reviews existing schemes that have been recently proposed to provide security solutions in wireless healthcare scenarios. Finally, the paper ends up with a summary of open security research issues that need to be explored for future healthcare applications using WMSNs.

Security Issues in Healthcare Applications Using Wireless Medical Sensor Networks: A Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hoon-Jae Lee

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Healthcare applications are considered as promising fields for wireless sensor networks, where patients can be monitored using wireless medical sensor networks (WMSNs. Current WMSN healthcare research trends focus on patient reliable communication, patient mobility, and energy-efficient routing, as a few examples. However, deploying new technologies in healthcare applications without considering security makes patient privacy vulnerable. Moreover, the physiological data of an individual are highly sensitive. Therefore, security is a paramount requirement of healthcare applications, especially in the case of patient privacy, if the patient has an embarrassing disease. This paper discusses the security and privacy issues in healthcare application using WMSNs. We highlight some popular healthcare projects using wireless medical sensor networks, and discuss their security. Our aim is to instigate discussion on these critical issues since the success of healthcare application depends directly on patient security and privacy, for ethic as well as legal reasons. In addition, we discuss the issues with existing security mechanisms, and sketch out the important security requirements for such applications. In addition, the paper reviews existing schemes that have been recently proposed to provide security solutions in wireless healthcare scenarios. Finally, the paper ends up with a summary of open security research issues that need to be explored for future healthcare applications using WMSNs.

Scenarios : tools for coping with complexity and future uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perez-Soba, M.; Maas, R.

2015-01-01

We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

Scenario? Guilty!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kyng, Morten

1992-01-01

Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthias Rosenberg

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and �

Environmental evaluation of waste management scenarios - significance of the boundaries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ghinea, C.; Petraru, M.; Bressers, Johannes T.A.; Gavrilescu, M.

2012-01-01

Life cycle concept was applied to analyse and assess some municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios in terms of environmental impacts, particularised for Iasi city, Romania, where approximately 380 kg/cap/yr of waste are generated. Currently, the management processes include temporary

Theological education, considered from South Africa: Current issues ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Taking into review the newly published series of substantial multi-authored volumes on ecumenical theological education internationally, this article identifies, from the author's own experience in ecumenical theological education and from his publications in this field, the central issue of specificity, locality and context in ...

Four Scenarios for Europe. Based on UNEP's third Global Environment Outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bakkes, J.; Gaponenko, N.; Mnatsakanian, R.

2003-01-01

The third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) was published on the eve of the Johannesburg summit (autumn 2002). GEO-3 looked back thirty years and forward thirty years. A set of what-if scenarios was used to explore the ways our society can advance, including implications for environmental and social goals. Characteristically, GEO-3 examines in a relatively deep fashion how its global scenarios can be interpreted in the context of each of the world's regions. This brochure presents the pan-European elaboration of the four GEO-3 scenarios. It focusses on the scenarios proper and their impacts in environmental terms. The scenarios are: The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the currently prevailing values and expectations in industrialized countries; In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to achieve specific social and environmental goals; The Security First scenario assumes a world full of large disparities, where inequality and conflict, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses, prevail: and Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability supported by new, more equitable values and institutions. The second section describes 'the pan-European tale of the four futures' in a predominantly qualitative manner. Section 3 presents a regionally differentiated examination of the environmental implications of the scenarios. Details on input material, assumptions and methodologies applied, and actual results, can be found in Chapter 4 of GEO-3 'Outlook 2002-32' and in the Technical Background Report on GEO-3 Scenario Work

User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

2017-04-01

In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy

Break location influence in pressure vessel SBLOCA scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Querol, Andrea; Gallardo, Sergio; Verdú, Gumersindo, E-mail: anquevi@upv.es, E-mail: sergalbe@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: gverdu@iqn.upv.es [Instituto Universitario de Seguridad Industrial, Radiofísica y Medioambiental (ISIRYM), Universitat Politècnica de València (Spain)

2017-07-01

The inspections performed in Davis Besse and in the South Texas Project Unit-I reactors pointed out safety issues regarding the structural integrity of the Pressure Vessel (PV). In these inspections, two anomalies were found: a wall thinning and degradation in the PV upper head of the Davis Besse reactor and a small amount of residue around of two instrument-tube penetration nozzles located in the PV lower plenum of the South Texas Project Unit-I reactor. The evolution of these defects could have resulted in Small Break Loss-Of-Coolant Accidents (SBLOCA) if they had not been detected in time. In this frame, the OECD/NEA considered the necessity to simulate these accidental sequences in the OECD/NEA ROSA Project using the Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF). This work is focused in simulating different hypothetical accidental scenarios in the PV using the thermalhydraulic code TRACE5. These simulations allow studying the break localization influence in the transient and the effectiveness of the accident management (AM) actions considered mitigating the consequences of these hypothetical accidental scenarios. (author)

Current drive studies for the ARIES steady-state tokamak reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mau, T.K.; Ehst, D.A.; Mandrekas, J.

1994-01-01

Steady-state plasma operating scenarios are designed for three versions of the ARIES reactor, using non-inductive current drive techniques that have an established database. R.f. waves, including fast and lower hybrid waves, are the reference drivers for the D-T burning ARIES-I and ARIES-II/IV, while neutral beam injection is employed for ARIES-III which burns D- 3 He. Plasma equilibria with a high bootstrap-current component have been used, in order to minimize the recirculating power fraction and cost of electricity. To maintain plasma stability, the driven current profile has been aligned with that of equilibrium by proper choices of the plasma profiles and power launch parameters. Except for ARIES-III, the current-drive power requirements and the relevant technology developments are found to be quite reasonable. The wave-power spectrum and launch requirements are also considered achievable with a modest development effort. Issues such as an improved database for fast-wave current drive, lower-hybrid power coupling to the plasma edge, profile control in the plasma core, and access to the design point of operation remain to be addressed. ((orig.))

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [University of Texas at Dallas; Feng, Cong [University of Texas at Dallas; Wang, Zhenke [University of Texas at Dallas; Zhang, Jie [University of Texas at Dallas

2018-02-01

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power and currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start-time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1997-12-31

One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1996-12-31

One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Retèl Valesca P

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

Implications of Current Ecological Thinking for Biodiversity Conservation: a Review of the Salient Issues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tabatha J. Wallington

2005-06-01

Full Text Available Given escalating concern worldwide about the loss of biodiversity, and given biodiversity's centrality to quality of life, it is imperative that current ecological knowledge fully informs societal decision making. Over the past two decades, ecological science has undergone many significant shifts in emphasis and perspective, which have important implications for how we manage ecosystems and species. In particular, a shift has occurred from the equilibrium paradigm to one that recognizes the dynamic, non-equilibrium nature of ecosystems. Revised thinking about the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological systems has important implications for management. Thus, it is of growing concern to ecologists and others that these recent developments have not been translated into information useful to managers and policy makers. Many conservation policies and plans are still based on equilibrium assumptions. A fundamental difficulty with integrating current ecological thinking into biodiversity policy and management planning is that field observations have yet to provide compelling evidence for many of the relationships suggested by non-equilibrium ecology. Yet despite this scientific uncertainty, management and policy decisions must still be made. This paper was motivated by the need for considered scientific debate on the significance of current ideas in theoretical ecology for biodiversity conservation. This paper aims to provide a platform for such discussion by presenting a critical synthesis of recent ecological literature that (1 identifies core issues in ecological theory, and (2 explores the implications of current ecological thinking for biodiversity conservation.

Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael H. Ruge

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models. While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics models (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model, the two thechniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens – proprietary prototype Computer – Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis. Keywords: Health care, telecommucations, qualitative model, sensitivity analysis, system dynamics.

Mars Surface Environmental Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Charles, John

2002-01-01

Planetary exploration by astronauts will require extended periods of habitation on a planet's surface, under the influence of environmental factors that are different from those of Earth and the spacecraft that delivered the crew to the planet. Human exploration of Mars, a possible near-term planetary objective, can be considered a challenging scenario. Mission scenarios currently under consideration call for surface habitation periods of from 1 to 18 months on even the earliest expeditions. Methods: Environmental issues associated with Mars exploration have been investigated by NASA and the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) as part of the Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap Project (see http ://criticalpath.jsc.nasa.gov). Results: Arrival on Mars will immediately expose the crew to gravity only 38% of that at Earth's surface in possibly the first prolonged exposure to gravity other than the 1G of Earth's surface and the zero G of weightless space flight, with yet unknown effects on crew physiology. The radiation at Mars' surface is not well documented, although the planet's bulk and even its thin atmosphere may moderate the influx of galactic cosmic radiation and energetic protons from solar flares. Secondary radiation from activated components of the soil must also be considered. Ultrafine and larger respirable and nonrespirable particles in Martian dust introduced into the habitat after surface excursions may induce pulmonary inflammation exacerbated by the additive reactive and oxidizing nature of the dust. Stringent decontamination cannot eliminate mechanical and corrosive effects of the dust on pressure suits and exposed machinery. The biohazard potential of putative indigenous Martian microorganisms may be assessed by comparison with analog environments on Earth. Even in their absence, human microorganisms, if not properly controlled, can be a threat to the crew's health. Conclusions: Mars' surface offers a substantial challenge to the

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

2016-01-01

Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vanessa M Adams

Full Text Available Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20% in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not. We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100% that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario