WorldWideScience

Sample records for scenarios critical variables

  1. A critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2011-01-01

    The author proposes a rather radical critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario which is mainly based on the development of the use of solid and liquid biomass produced by forests and farms, and of some marginal resources like wood and urban wastes. He shows that wood resources in France are not sufficient as part of the wood is used for construction. A further exploitation of wood would lead to a dramatic increase of costs. He shows that the scenario overestimates the available wood in France, and moreover, that the promoters of the scenario overstep the physical, biological, social and economic limits of the real world of agriculture

  2. [Effects of situational and individual variables on critical thinking expression].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Yuko; Kusumi, Takashi

    2016-04-01

    The present study examined when people decide to choose an expression that is based on critical thinking, and how situational and individual variables affect such a decision process. Given a conversation scenario including overgeneralization with two friends, participants decided whether to follow the conversation by a critical-thinking expression or not. The authors controlled purpose and topic as situational variables, and measured critical-thinking ability, critical-thinking disposition, and self-monitoring as individual variables. We conducted an experiment in which the situational variables were counterbalanced in a within-subject design with 60 university students. The results of logistic regression analysis showed differences within individuals in the decision process whether to choose a critical-thinking expression, and that some situational factors and some subscales of the individual measurements were related to the differences.

  3. Measuring variability of procedure progression in proceduralized scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yochan; Park, Jinkyun; Jung, Wondea

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The VPP measure was developed to quantify how differently operators follow the procedures. ► Sources that cause variability of ways to follow a given procedure were identified. ► The VPP values for the scenarios are positively related to the scenario performance time. ► The VPP measure is meaningful for explaining characteristics of several PSFs. -- Abstract: Various performance shaping factors (PSFs) have been presented to explain the contributors to unsafe acts in a human failure event or predict a human error probability of new human performance. However, because most of these parameters of an HRA depend on the subjective knowledge and experience of HRA analyzers, the results of an HRA insufficiently provide unbiased standards to explain human performance variations or compare collected data with other data from different analyzers. To secure the validity of the HRA results, we propose a quantitative measure, which represents the variability of procedure progression (VPP) in proceduralized scenarios. A VPP measure shows how differently the operators follow the steps of the procedures. This paper introduces the sources of the VPP measure and relevance to PSFs. The assessment method of the VPP measure is also proposed, and the application examples are shown with a comparison of the performance time. Although more empirical studies should be conducted to reveal the relationship between the VPP measure and other PSFs, it is believed that the VPP measure provides evidence to quantitatively evaluate human performance variations and to cross-culturally compare the collected data.

  4. Hydroclimate variability: comparing dendroclimatic records and future GCM scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lapp, S.

    2008-01-01

    Drought events of the 20th Century in western North America have been linked to teleconnections that influence climate variability on inter-annual and decadal to multi-decadal time scales. These teleconnections represent the changes sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical and extra-tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean, ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), respectively, and the Atlantic Ocean, AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and also to atmospheric circulation patterns (PNA: Pacific-North American). A network of precipitation sensitive tree-ring chronologies from Montana, Alberta, Saskatchewan and NWT highly correlate to the climate moisture index (CMI) of precipitation potential evapotranspiration (P-PET), thus, capturing the long-term hydroclimatic variability of the region. Reconstructions of annual and seasonal CMI identify drought events in previous centuries that are more extreme in magnitude, frequency and duration than recorded during the instrumental period. Variability in the future climate will include these natural climate cycles as well as modulations of these cycles affected by human induced global warming. The proxy hydroclimate records derived from tree-rings present information on decadal and multi-decadal hydroclimatic variability for the past millennium; therefore, providing a unique opportunity to validate the climate variability simulated by GCMs (Global Climate Models) on longer time scales otherwise constrained by the shorter observation records. Developing scenarios of future variability depends: 1) on our understanding of the interaction of these teleconnection; and, 2) to identify climate models that are able to accurately simulate the hydroclimatic variability as detected in the instrumental and proxy records. (author)

  5. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence determination of a waste tank criticality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marusich, R.M. Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for criticality consequences for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Criticality scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided

  6. Minimality of critical scenarios with linear logic and cutsets

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DK

    Keywords: Dependability - Mechatronic systems -Petri net - Linear logic - Minimal Feared scenarios - Cutsets. ..... Energy supply. Detection high level. Relay. ET. Energy supply. Detection high level. Relay ..... Evaluation de la SdF des systèmes mécatroniques en utilisant ... in complex distributed systems, Proceedings of the.

  7. Critical currents of variable thickness bridges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lapir, G.M.; Likharev, K.K.; Maslova, L.A.; Semenov, V.K.

    1975-01-01

    A variable thickness bridge (VTB) is a short strip of thin normal or superconducting electrodes - 'banks'. This type of weak link has the peculiarity of having the changes of the modulus of the orderparameter localized in the film of the bridge. Only changes of the phase of the orderparameter take place in the banks, and so the electrodynamics of the banks is linear. The problem of the distribution of the linear density of current Jsub(s)(psi) and of the phase difference of the banks psi along the VTB width is considered and the critical current Isub(c) for the important case of a VTB deposited over a superconducting ground plate - 'screen' is calculated. (Auth.)

  8. Classification for Safety-Critical Car-Cyclist Scenarios Using Machine Learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cara, I.; Gelder, E.D.

    2015-01-01

    The number of fatal car-cyclist accidents is increasing. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) can improve the safety of cyclists, but they need to be tested with realistic safety-critical car-cyclist scenarios. In order to store only relevant scenarios, an online classification algorithm is

  9. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-12-01

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  10. Tsunami inundation variability from stochastic rupture scenarios: Application to multiple inversions of the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Mori, Nobuhito

    2017-06-28

    We develop a framework for assessing the sensitivity and variability of tsunami inundation characteristics for stochastic physics-based scenarios of mega-thrust subduction earthquakes. The method is applied to the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake, and tested against observed inundation maps at several locations along the Tohoku coast, using 11 different, previously published, rupture models for this devastating tsunamgenic earthquake. The earthquake rupture models differ in fault dimension (length and width), geometry (dip, strike and top-edge depth), as well as asperity characteristics (slip heterogeneity on the fault plane). The resulting source variability allows exploring a wide range of tsunami scenarios for an Mw9 mega-thrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region to conduct thorough sensitivity analyses and to quantify the inundation variability. The numerical results indicate a strong influence of the reference source models on inundation variability, and demonstrate significant sensitivity of inundation to the details of the rupture realization. Therefore, relying on a single particular earthquake rupture model as a representative case when varying earthquake source characteristics may lead to under-representation of the variability of potential scenarios. Moreover, the proposed framework facilitates the rigorous development of critical scenarios for tsunami hazard and risk assessments, which are particularly useful for tsunami hazard mapping and disaster preparedness planning.

  11. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  12. Development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait, Michael; Tait, Desiree; Thornton, Frances; Edwards, Mark

    2008-11-01

    This paper describes the development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario for student nurses. At present, there are insufficient opportunities in the United Kingdom (UK) for student nurses to experience clinical placements where their skills in care of the critically-ill can be developed. There is therefore a need for new learning materials that help learners recognise the signs of clinical deterioration and rehearse the management of critically-ill patients. One way of meeting this need is by using electronic care scenarios. Several electronic care scenarios have been developed at Swansea University as part of the eWARD project. This article describes the design and evaluation of a critical care scenario that follows the care of a road casualty (John Macadam) after admission to an intensive care unit. The scenario was designed by an advisory team comprising a clinical lecturer and e-learning specialists. After using the scenario, 144 nursing students completed a Web-based questionnaire that collected demographic and attitudinal data for analysis using SPSS. Nursing students had a strongly positive attitude to the scenario with median scores in excess of 20 compared to maxima of 25 for scales measuring ease-of-use, interactivity, realism and confidence. None of the demographic data collected had a significant effect on these attitudes. The positive attitude of student nurses to this scenario strongly supports its use to help learners to (1) acquire knowledge and awareness when real life placements in these settings are not available and (2) extend their knowledge after coming across similar situations in practice.

  13. Repeated scenario simulation to improve competency in critical care: a new approach for nursing education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abe, Yukie; Kawahara, Chikako; Yamashina, Akira; Tsuboi, Ryoji

    2013-01-01

    In Japan, nursing education is being reformed to improve nurses' competency. Interest in use of simulation-based education to increase nurses' competency is increasing. To examine the effectiveness of simulation-based education in improving competency of cardiovascular critical care nurses. A training program that consisted of lectures, training in cardiovascular procedures, and scenario simulations was conducted with 24 Japanese nurses working at a university hospital. Participants were allocated to 4 groups, each of which visited 4 zones and underwent scenario simulations that included debriefings during and after the simulations. In each zone, the scenario simulation was repeated and participants assessed their own technical skills by scoring their performance on a rubric. Before and after the simulations, participants also completed a survey that used the Teamwork Activity Inventory in Nursing Scale (TAINS) to assess their nontechnical skills. All the groups showed increased rubric scores after the second simulation compared with the rubric scores obtained after the first simulation, despite differences in the order in which the scenarios were presented. Furthermore, the survey revealed significant increases in scores on the teamwork scale for the following subscale items: "Attitudes of the superior" (P Job satisfaction" (P = .01), and "Confidence as a team member" (P = .004). Our new educational approach of using repeated scenario simulations and TAINS seemed not only to enhance individual nurses' technical skills in critical care nursing but also to improve their nontechnical skills somewhat.

  14. A fundamental study of a variable critical nozzle flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jea Hyung; Kim, Heuy Dong; Park, Kyung Am

    2003-01-01

    The mass flow rate of gas flow through critical nozzle depends on the nozzle supply conditions and the cross-sectional area at the nozzle throat. In order that the critical nozzle can be operated at a wide range of supply conditions, the nozzle throat diameter should be controlled to change the flow passage area. This can be achieved by means of a variable critical nozzle. In the present study, both experimental and computational works are performed to develop variable critical nozzle. A cone-cylinder with a diameter of d is inserted into conventional critical nozzle. It can move both upstream and downstream, thereby changing the cross-sectional area of the nozzle throat. Computational work using the axisymmetric, compressible Navier-Stokes equations is carried out to simulate the variable critical nozzle flow. An experiment is performed to measure the mass flow rate through variable critical nozzle. The present computational results are in close agreement with measured ones. The boundary layer displacement and momentum thickness are given as a function of Reynolds number. An empirical equation is obtained to predict the discharge coefficient of variable critical nozzle

  15. Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parsons, B.; Hummon, M.; Cochran, J.; Stoltenberg, B.; Batra, P.; Mehta, B.; Patel, D.

    2014-04-01

    India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

  16. Reuse-centric Requirements Analysis with Task Models, Scenarios, and Critical Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cyril Montabert

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines a requirements-analysis process that unites task models, scenarios, and critical parameters to exploit and generate reusable knowledge at the requirements phase. Through the deployment of a critical-parameter-based approach to task modeling, the process yields the establishment of an integrative and formalized model issued from scenarios that can be used for requirements characterization. Furthermore, not only can this entity serve as interface to a knowledge repository relying on a critical-parameter-based taxonomy to support reuse but its characterization in terms of critical parameters also allows the model to constitute a broader reuse solution. We discuss our vision for a user-centric and reuse-centric approach to requirements analysis, present previous efforts implicated with this line of work, and state the revisions brought to extend the reuse potential and effectiveness of a previous iteration of a requirements tool implementing such process. Finally, the paper describes the sequence and nature of the activities involved with the conduct of our proposed requirements-analysis technique, concluding by previewing ongoing work in the field that will explore the feasibility for designers to use our approach.

  17. THM modelling of buffer, backfill and other system components. Critical processes and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aakesson, Mattias; Kristensson, Ola; Boergesson, Lennart; Dueck, Ann; Hernelind, Jan

    2010-03-01

    A number of critical thermo-hydro-mechanical processes and scenarios for the buffer, tunnel backfill and other filling components in the repository have been identified. These processes and scenarios representing different aspects of the repository evolution have been pinpointed and modelled. In total, 22 cases have been modelled. Most cases have been analysed with finite element (FE) calculations, using primarily the two codes Abaqus and Code B right. For some cases analytical methods have been used either to supplement the FE calculations or due to that the scenario has a character that makes it unsuitable or very difficult to use the FE method. Material models and element models and choice of parameters as well as presumptions have been stated for all modelling cases. In addition, the results have been analysed and conclusions drawn for each case. The uncertainties have also been analysed. Besides the information given for all cases studied, the codes and material models have been described in a separate so called data report

  18. THM modelling of buffer, backfill and other system components. Critical processes and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aakesson, Mattias; Kristensson, Ola; Boergesson, Lennart; Dueck, Ann (Clay Technology AB, Lund (Sweden)); Hernelind, Jan (5T-Engineering AB, Vaesteraas (Sweden))

    2010-03-15

    A number of critical thermo-hydro-mechanical processes and scenarios for the buffer, tunnel backfill and other filling components in the repository have been identified. These processes and scenarios representing different aspects of the repository evolution have been pinpointed and modelled. In total, 22 cases have been modelled. Most cases have been analysed with finite element (FE) calculations, using primarily the two codes Abaqus and Code-Bright. For some cases analytical methods have been used either to supplement the FE calculations or due to that the scenario has a character that makes it unsuitable or very difficult to use the FE method. Material models and element models and choice of parameters as well as presumptions have been stated for all modelling cases. In addition, the results have been analysed and conclusions drawn for each case. The uncertainties have also been analysed. Besides the information given for all cases studied, the codes and material models have been described in a separate so called data report

  19. Climate change streamflow scenarios designed for critical period water resources planning studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, A. F.; Snover, A. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2003-04-01

    Long-range water planning in the United States is usually conducted by individual water management agencies using a critical period planning exercise based on a particular period of the observed streamflow record and a suite of internally-developed simulation tools representing the water system. In the context of planning for climate change, such an approach is flawed in that it assumes that the future climate will be like the historic record. Although more sophisticated planning methods will probably be required as time goes on, a short term strategy for incorporating climate uncertainty into long-range water planning as soon as possible is to create alternate inputs to existing planning methods that account for climate uncertainty as it affects both supply and demand. We describe a straight-forward technique for constructing streamflow scenarios based on the historic record that include the broad-based effects of changed regional climate simulated by several global climate models (GCMs). The streamflow scenarios are based on hydrologic simulations driven by historic climate data perturbed according to regional climate signals from four GCMs using the simple "delta" method. Further data processing then removes systematic hydrologic model bias using a quantile-based bias correction scheme, and lastly, the effects of random errors in the raw hydrologic simulations are removed. These techniques produce streamflow scenarios that are consistent in time and space with the historic streamflow record while incorporating fundamental changes in temperature and precipitation from the GCM scenarios. Planning model simulations based on these climate change streamflow scenarios can therefore be compared directly to planning model simulations based on the historic record of streamflows to help planners understand the potential impacts of climate uncertainty. The methods are currently being tested and refined in two large-scale planning exercises currently being conducted in the

  20. Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoarau, Quentin

    2016-01-01

    Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms. PMID:26761792

  1. Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortega, Pablo; Montoya, Marisa; Gonzalez-Rouco, Fidel [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, Dpto. Astrofisica y Ciencias de la Atmosfera/Instituto de Geociencias, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, Instituto de Geociencias (UCM-CSIC), Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Mignot, Juliette [IPSL/LOCEAN, UPMC/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Legutke, Stephanie [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)

    2012-05-15

    The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in several climate simulations with the ECHO-G atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, including two forced integrations of the last millennium, one millennial-long control run, and two future scenario simulations of the twenty-first century. This constitutes a new framework in which the AMOC response to future climate change conditions is addressed in the context of both its past evolution and its natural variability. The main mechanisms responsible for the AMOC variability at interannual and multidecadal time scales are described. At high frequencies, the AMOC is directly responding to local changes in the Ekman transport, associated with three modes of climate variability: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. At low frequencies, the AMOC is largely controlled by convection activity south of Greenland. Again, the atmosphere is found to play a leading role in these variations. Positive anomalies of convection are preceded in 1 year by intensified zonal winds, associated in the forced runs to a positive NAO-like pattern. Finally, the sensitivity of the AMOC to three different forcing factors is investigated. The major impact is associated with increasing greenhouse gases, given their strong and persistent radiative forcing. Starting in the Industrial Era and continuing in the future scenarios, the AMOC experiences a final decrease of up to 40% with respect to the preindustrial average. Also, a weak but significant AMOC strengthening is found in response to the major volcanic eruptions, which produce colder and saltier surface conditions over the main convection regions. In contrast, no meaningful impact of the solar forcing on the AMOC is observed. Indeed, solar irradiance only affects convection in the Nordic Seas, with a marginal contribution to the AMOC variability in the ECHO-G runs. (orig.)

  2. Validity Evidence for a Serious Game to Assess Performance on Critical Pediatric Emergency Medicine Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerard, James M; Scalzo, Anthony J; Borgman, Matthew A; Watson, Christopher M; Byrnes, Chelsie E; Chang, Todd P; Auerbach, Marc; Kessler, David O; Feldman, Brian L; Payne, Brian S; Nibras, Sohail; Chokshi, Riti K; Lopreiato, Joseph O

    2018-01-26

    We developed a first-person serious game, PediatricSim, to teach and assess performances on seven critical pediatric scenarios (anaphylaxis, bronchiolitis, diabetic ketoacidosis, respiratory failure, seizure, septic shock, and supraventricular tachycardia). In the game, players are placed in the role of a code leader and direct patient management by selecting from various assessment and treatment options. The objective of this study was to obtain supportive validity evidence for the PediatricSim game scores. Game content was developed by 11 subject matter experts and followed the American Heart Association's 2011 Pediatric Advanced Life Support Provider Manual and other authoritative references. Sixty subjects with three different levels of experience were enrolled to play the game. Before game play, subjects completed a 40-item written pretest of knowledge. Game scores were compared between subject groups using scoring rubrics developed for the scenarios. Validity evidence was established and interpreted according to Messick's framework. Content validity was supported by a game development process that involved expert experience, focused literature review, and pilot testing. Subjects rated the game favorably for engagement, realism, and educational value. Interrater agreement on game scoring was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.91, 95% confidence interval = 0.89-0.9). Game scores were higher for attendings followed by residents then medical students (Pc game and written test scores (r = 0.84, P game scores to assess knowledge of pediatric emergency medicine resuscitation.

  3. Summer precipitation variability over Southeastern South America in a global warming scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Junquas, C. [UPMC/CNRS, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris (France); UMI-IFAECI CNRS-CONICET-UBA, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera (CIMA), DCAO/FCEyN, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Vera, C. [UMI-IFAECI CNRS-CONICET-UBA, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera (CIMA), DCAO/FCEyN, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Li, L.; Le Treut, H. [UPMC/CNRS, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris (France)

    2012-05-15

    December-January-February (DJF) rainfall variability in southeastern South America (SESA) is studied in 18 coupled general circulation models from the WCRP/CMIP3 dataset, for present climate and the SRES-A1B climate change scenario. The analysis is made in terms of properties of the first leading pattern of rainfall variability in the region, characterized by a dipole-like structure with centers of action in the SESA and South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) regions. The study was performed to address two issues: how rainfall variability in SESA would change in a future climate and how much of that change explains the projected increasing trends in the summer mean rainfall in SESA identified in previous works. Positive (negative) dipole events were identified as those DJF seasons with above (below) normal rainfall in SESA and below (above) normal rainfall in the SACZ region. Results obtained from the multi-model ensemble confirm that future rainfall variability in SESA has a strong projection on the changes of seasonal dipole pattern activity, associated with an increase of the frequency of the positive phase. In addition, the frequency increase of positive dipole phase in the twenty first century seems to be associated with an increase of both frequency and intensity of positive SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, and with a Rossby wave train-like anomaly pattern linking that ocean basin to South America, which regionally induces favorable conditions for moisture transport convergence and rainfall increase in SESA. (orig.)

  4. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios; Modelisation climatique du Bassin mediterraneen: variabilite et scenarios de changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somot, S

    2005-12-15

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  5. Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tosoni, Edoardo; Salo, Ahti; Zio, Enrico

    2018-04-01

    A major challenge in scenario analysis for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories pertains to the comprehensiveness of the set of scenarios selected for assessing the safety of the repository. Motivated by this challenge, we discuss the aspects of scenario analysis relevant to comprehensiveness. Specifically, we note that (1) it is necessary to make it clear why scenarios usually focus on a restricted set of features, events, and processes; (2) there is not yet consensus on the interpretation of comprehensiveness for guiding the generation of scenarios; and (3) there is a need for sound approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. The Key-Role of shielding analysis in advanced Candu Fuel bundles nuclear safety improvement for some accidental criticality scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margeanu, C.A.; Rizoiu, A.; Olteanu, G.

    2008-01-01

    The paper aims to present the source term and photon dose rates estimation for advanced Candu fuel bundles in some accidental criticality scenarios. As reference, the Candu standard fuel bundle has been used. The scenarios take into account for a very short-time irradiated or spent fuel bundles for some configurations closed to criticality. In order to estimate irradiated fuel characteristic parameters and radiation doses, the ORNL's SCALE 5 codes Origin-S and Monte Carlo MORSE-SGC have been used. The paper includes the irradiated fuel characteristic parameters comparison for the considered Candu fuel bundles, providing also a comparison between the corresponding radiation doses

  7. The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraun, Douglas

    2013-04-01

    When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with

  8. Propagation of hydroclimatic variability through the critical zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porporato, A. M.; Calabrese, S.; Parolari, A.

    2016-12-01

    The interaction between soil moisture dynamics and mineral-weathering reactions (e.g., ion exchange, precipitation-dissolution) affects the availability of nutrients to plants, composition of soils, soil acidification, as well as CO2 sequestration. Across the critical zone (CZ), this interaction is responsible for propagating hydroclimatic fluctuations to deeper soil layers, controlling weathering rates via leaching events which intermittently alter the alkalinity levels. In this contribution, we analyze these dynamics using a stochastic modeling approach based on spatially lumped description of soil hydrology and chemical weathering reactions forced by multi-scale temporal hydrologic variability. We quantify the role of soil moisture dynamics in filtering the rainfall fluctuations through its impacts on soil water chemistry, described by a system of ordinary differential equations (and algebraic equations, for the equilibrium reactions), driving the evolution of alkalinity, pH, the chemical species of the soil solution, and the mineral-weathering rate. A probabilistic description of the evolution of the critical zone is thus obtained, allowing us to describe the CZ response to long-term climate fluctuations, ecosystem and land-use conditions, in terms of key variables groups. The model is applied to the weathering rate of albite in the Calhoun CZ observatory and then extended to explore similarities and differences across other CZs. Typical time scales of response and degrees of sensitivities of CZ to hydroclimatic fluctuations and human forcing are also explored.

  9. The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

    2012-03-15

    Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

  10. Critical analysis of accident scenario and consequences modelling applied to light-water reactor power plants for accident categories beyond the design basis accident (DBA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brofferio, C.; Cagnetti, P.; Ferrara, V.; Manilia, E.; Pietrangeli, G.; Sennis, C.

    1985-01-01

    A critical analysis and sensitivity study of the modelling of accident scenarios and environmental consequences are presented, for light-water reactor accident categories beyond the standard design-basis-accident category. The first chapter, on ''source term'' deals with the release of fission products from a damaged core inventory and their migration within the primary circuit and the reactor containment. Particular attention is given to the influence of engineering safeguards intervention and of the chemical forms of the released fission products. The second chapter deals with their release to the atmosphere, transport and wet or dry deposition, outlining relevant partial effects and confronting short-duration or prolonged releases. The third chapter presents a variability analysis, for environmental contamination levels, for two extreme hypothetical scenarios, evidencing the importance of plume rise. A numerical plume rise model is outlined

  11. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

    2015-02-20

    validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.

  12. Climate variability of heat wave and projection of warming scenario in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, C. Y.; Chien, Y. Y.; Su, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    This study examined the climate variability of heat wave (HW) according to air temperature and relative humidity to determine trends of variation and stress threshold in three major cities of Taiwan, Taipei (TP), Taichung (TC) and Kaohsiung (KH), during in the past four decades (1971-2010). According to data available, the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress for the three studied cities was also calculated for the past (2003-2012) and simulated under the projected warming scenario for the end of this century (2075-2099) using ECHAM5/MPIOM-WRF (ECW) dynamic downscaling 5-km resolution Analysis showed that past decade (2001-2010) saw increase not only in number of HW days in all three cities but also the duration of each HW event in TP and KH. Simulation results revealed that ECW captures well the characteristics of data distribution in these three cities during 2003-2012. Under the A1B projection, ECW yielded higher WBGT in all three cities for 2075-2099. The WBGT in TP indicated that the heat stress for 50% of the days in July and August by 2075-2099 will be at danger level (WBGT ³ 31 °C). Even the median WBGT in TC and KH (30.91°C and 30.88°C, respectively), are close to 31°C. Hence, the heat stress in all three cities will either exceed or approach the danger level by the end of this century. Such projection under the global warming trend would necessitate adaptation and mitigation, and the huge impact of dangerous heat stress on public health merits urgent attention for Taiwan.

  13. Securing the future in the anthropocene: A critical analysis of the millennium ecosystem assessment scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert P. Marzec

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This commentary analyzes the ontological character of the United Nations’ Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005 and its attempt to imagine business-as-usual and transformative human-environmental futures. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA constitutes the first and most significant attempt by an international political body to incorporate environmental concerns into the field of imaginative scenario building. In addition to its lengthy report on the threatened status of planetary ecosystems, the MA contains extensive “future scenarios” that imagine how human-environmental relations might unfold over the course of the twenty-first century. These scenarios arise out of the lineage of military scenarios generated during the Cold War, and continue to inform UN assessments in the present. This commentary explores how a politico-military concern for security informs the framework of the scenarios, and limits how the MA characterizes the fundamental human act of narration. In the process, the commentary explores alternative ontologies of narration and how these may lead to more transformative narratological interventions.

  14. Validation of a scenario-based assessment of critical thinking using an externally validated tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buur, Jennifer L; Schmidt, Peggy; Smylie, Dean; Irizarry, Kris; Crocker, Carlos; Tyler, John; Barr, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    With medical education transitioning from knowledge-based curricula to competency-based curricula, critical thinking skills have emerged as a major competency. While there are validated external instruments for assessing critical thinking, many educators have created their own custom assessments of critical thinking. However, the face validity of these assessments has not been challenged. The purpose of this study was to compare results from a custom assessment of critical thinking with the results from a validated external instrument of critical thinking. Students from the College of Veterinary Medicine at Western University of Health Sciences were administered a custom assessment of critical thinking (ACT) examination and the externally validated instrument, California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST), in the spring of 2011. Total scores and sub-scores from each exam were analyzed for significant correlations using Pearson correlation coefficients. Significant correlations between ACT Blooms 2 and deductive reasoning and total ACT score and deductive reasoning were demonstrated with correlation coefficients of 0.24 and 0.22, respectively. No other statistically significant correlations were found. The lack of significant correlation between the two examinations illustrates the need in medical education to externally validate internal custom assessments. Ultimately, the development and validation of custom assessments of non-knowledge-based competencies will produce higher quality medical professionals.

  15. Jatropha tissue culture: A critical review on present scenario and future prospects

    KAUST Repository

    Kumar, Nitish; Reddy, Muppala P.

    2012-01-01

    Ever increasing fuel prices and depletion of fossil reserves have ignited worldwide search for alternative renewable energy sources. Development of biofuels as an alternative and renewable source of energy has become critical in the national efforts

  16. CRITICAL RADAR: TOOL AND METHODOLOGY FOR EVALUATING CURRENT PROJECTS USING MULTIPLE VARIABLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André M. Ferrari

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Many resources are invested in measurement processes of projects indicators without, however, give a clear view of which projects deserves the right attention at the right time. This paper proposes the use of statistics, through the analysis of multiple variables and their interrelationships, to give better basis to a critical assessment methodology of current projects used in a multinational mining company. The contribution of the research is to report the methodology called Critical Radar which is based on a graphical tool with simple operationalization that can support the decision making in complex environments, and has great flexibility across the different market scenarios and possible changes in companies guidelines. The tool has great potential to help evaluate current projects due to their characteristics of flexible use in different business areas; high degree of freedom for improvement; use of known market tool in its development; ease of viewing the results through charts and notes and user freedom to use any existing indicators in the company if complied with some statistical data quality characteristics.

  17. Concerns about usage of smartphones in operating room and critical care scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Attri, JP; Khetarpal, R; Chatrath, V; Kaur, J

    2016-01-01

    Smartphones and tablets have taken a central place in the lives of health care professionals. Their use has dramatically improved the communication and has become an important learning tool as the medical information can be assessed online at anytime. In critical care settings, use of smartphone facilitates quick passage of information through E-mail messaging and getting feedback from the concerned physician quickly, thereby reducing medical errors. However, in addition to the benefits offer...

  18. Using a Critical Incident Scenario With Virtual Humans to Assess Educational Needs of Nurses in a Postanesthesia Care Unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Casey; Chuah, Joon; Robb, Andrew; Lok, Benjamin; Lampotang, Samsun; Lizdas, David; Martindale, James; Pi, Guillermo; Wendling, Adam

    2015-01-01

    During critical incidents, teamwork failures can compromise patient safety. This study provides evidence that virtual humans can be used in simulated critical incidents to assess the learning needs of health professionals, and provide important information that can inform the development of continuing education programs in patient safety. We explored the effectiveness of information transfer during a devolving medical situation between postanesthesia care unit (PACU) nurses and a virtual attending physician. We designed a three-stage scenario: tutorial, patient transfer, and critical incident. We developed 2 checklists to assess information transfer: Critical Patient Information and Interprofessional Communication Skills. All participants were videotaped; 2 raters reviewed all videos and assessed performance using the checklists. Participants (n = 43) who completed all 3 stages scored 62.3% correct on critical patient information transfer and 61.6% correct on interprofessional communication skills. Almost 87% missed a fatal drug error. The checklists measured each item on a 1/0 (done/not) calculation. Additionally, no relationship was found between years of nursing experience and performance on either checklist. The PACU nurses in this study did not consistently share critical information with an attending (virtual) physician during a critical incident, and most missed a fatal dosage error. These findings strongly suggest a crucial need for additional structured team training among practicing health care teams, and they demonstrate the utility of using virtual humans to simulate team members. © 2015 The Alliance for Continuing Education in the Health Professions, the Society for Academic Continuing Medical Education, and the Council on Continuing Medical Education, Association for Hospital Medical Education.

  19. Simulation of streamflows and basin-wide hydrologic variables over several climate-change scenarios, Methow River basin, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Frank D.; Mastin, Mark C.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to demonstrate the capabilities of an existing watershed model and downscaling procedures to provide simulated hydrological data over various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for use in the Methow River framework prototype. An existing watershed model was used to simulate daily time series of streamflow and basin-wide hydrologic variables for baseline conditions (1990–2000), and then for all combinations of three greenhouse gas emission scenarios and five general circulation models for future conditions (2008–2095). Input data for 18 precipitation and 17 temperature model input sites were generated using statistical techniques to downscale general circulation model data. The simulated results were averaged using an 11-year moving window to characterize the central year of the window to provide simulated data for water years 2008–2095.

  20. Evolution of critical fluctuations in a heavy-ion collision scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herold, Christoph; Nahrgang, Marlene; Kobdaj, Chinorat; Limphirat, Ayut; Yan, Yupeng

    2017-11-01

    We study fluctuations of the sigma field and the net-baryon number on the crossover side of the critical point within the model of nonequilibrium chiral fluid dynamics (NχFD). Herein, the sigma field as the chiral order parameter is propagated explicitly and coupled to a fluid of quarks. Before investigating these fluctuations in an expanding nonequilibrium medium, we scrutinize the NχFD model by comparing cumulants of the sigma fluctuations in a thermalized box to (ratios of) susceptibilities as they are obtained from derivatives of the grand canonical potential. The dynamically determined cumulants follow the trend of the thermodynamic susceptibilities. In an expanding inhomogeneous medium, however, the behavior of the fluctuations is shown to be different as a result of memory effects.

  1. Concerns about usage of smartphones in operating room and critical care scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attri, J P; Khetarpal, R; Chatrath, V; Kaur, J

    2016-01-01

    Smartphones and tablets have taken a central place in the lives of health care professionals. Their use has dramatically improved the communication and has become an important learning tool as the medical information can be assessed online at anytime. In critical care settings, use of smartphone facilitates quick passage of information through E-mail messaging and getting feedback from the concerned physician quickly, thereby reducing medical errors. However, in addition to the benefits offered, these devices have become a significant source of nosocomial infections, distraction for medical professionals and interfere with medical equipments. They may also put privacy and security of patients at stake. The benefits could be severely undermined if abuse and over use are not kept in check. This review article focuses on various applications of smartphones in healthcare practices, drawback of the use of these devices and the recommendations regarding the safe use of these devices.

  2. Concerns about usage of smartphones in operating room and critical care scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J P Attri

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Smartphones and tablets have taken a central place in the lives of health care professionals. Their use has dramatically improved the communication and has become an important learning tool as the medical information can be assessed online at anytime. In critical care settings, use of smartphone facilitates quick passage of information through E-mail messaging and getting feedback from the concerned physician quickly, thereby reducing medical errors. However, in addition to the benefits offered, these devices have become a significant source of nosocomial infections, distraction for medical professionals and interfere with medical equipments. They may also put privacy and security of patients at stake. The benefits could be severely undermined if abuse and over use are not kept in check. This review article focuses on various applications of smartphones in healthcare practices, drawback of the use of these devices and the recommendations regarding the safe use of these devices.

  3. An outburst scenario for the X-ray spectral variability in 3C 111

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tombesi, F.; Reeves, J. N.; Reynolds, C. S.; García, J.; Lohfink, A.

    2013-09-01

    We present a combined Suzaku and Swift BAT broad-band E = 0.6-200 keV spectral analysis of three 3C 111 observations obtained in 2010. The data are well described with an absorbed power-law continuum and a weak (R ≃ 0.2) cold reflection component from distant material. We constrain the continuum cutoff at EC ≃ 150-200 keV, which is in accordance with X-ray Comptonization corona models and supports claims that the jet emission is only dominant at much higher energies. Fe XXVI Lyα emission and absorption lines are also present in the first and second observations, respectively. The modelling and interpretation of the emission line is complex and we explore three possibilities. If originating from ionized-disc reflection, this should be emitted at rin ≥ 50 rg or, in the lamp-post configuration, the illuminating source should be at a height of h ≥ 30 rg above the black hole. Alternatively, the line could be modelled with a hot collisionally ionized plasma with temperature kT = 22.0^{+6.1}_{-3.2} keV or a photoionized plasma with log ξ = 4.52^{+0.10}_{-0.16} erg s-1 cm and column density NH > 3 × 1023 cm-2. However, the first and second scenarios are less favoured on statistical and physical grounds, respectively. The blueshifted absorption line in the second observation can be modelled as an ultrafast outflow (UFO) with ionization parameter log ξ = 4.47^{+0.76}_{-0.04} erg s-1 cm, column density N_H = (5.3^{+1.8}_{-1.3})× 10^{22} cm-2 and outflow velocity vout = 0.104 ± 0.006c. Interestingly, the parameters of the photoionized emission model remarkably match those of the absorbing UFO, supporting the possibility that the same material could be responsible for both emission and absorption. We suggest an outburst scenario in which an accretion disc wind, initially lying out of the line of sight and observed in emission, then crosses our view to the source and it is observed in absorption as a mildly relativistic UFO.

  4. Critical variables of business failure: a review and classification framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Pretorius

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Failure is a phenomenon that ventures face during all stages of the life cycle and requires insight into its causes before it can be reversed. The scientific literature on failure is, however, spread over multiple disciplines. This study’s line of enquiry firstly reviews the documented research (both theoretical and empirical encompassing the phenomenon ‘business failure’ on a multi-disciplinary basis. A conceptual framework is then proposed for categorising variables into four sub-domains namely: signs and prediction; causes and preconditions; recovery; and cognition and learning. Better understanding of the failure phenomenon is achieved. The methodology applied is fundamentally based on grounded theory interpretation with a focus on classifying the identified relevant variables.

  5. Jatropha tissue culture: A critical review on present scenario and future prospects

    KAUST Repository

    Kumar, Nitish

    2012-10-26

    Ever increasing fuel prices and depletion of fossil reserves have ignited worldwide search for alternative renewable energy sources. Development of biofuels as an alternative and renewable source of energy has become critical in the national efforts towards maximum self-reliance, the corner stone of our energy security strategy. Ever since it was established that Jatropha methyl esters yields biodiesel of an exceptional quality and easy adaptation to semi-arid marginal lands, there has been a surge of interest in biodiesel miracle tree. Large scale cultivation remains the single most important factor that will ultimately determine the success of Jatropha curcas as a source of biofuel. Non-availability of superior clones/varieties, shortage of cuttings, low multiplication rate, gaps in knowledge of clonal technology, higher cost of clonal plantation, etc. are the major factors that limit large-scale cultivation. Recent advances in DNA technology and genetic transformation offer a credible approach for the genetic improvement of the species. The last decade witnessed a blooming interest in the development of micropropagation and transformation techniques for this energy crop. In this review, the achievements made during the last three decades in J. curcas micropropagation are presented. © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013. All rights are reserved.

  6. Climate variability and change scenarios for a marine commodity: Modelling small pelagic fish, fisheries and fishmeal in a globalized market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merino, Gorka; Barange, Manuel; Mullon, Christian

    2010-04-01

    The world's small pelagic fish populations, their fisheries, fishmeal and fish oil production industries and markets are part of a globalised production and consumption system. The potential for climate variability and change to alter the balance in this system is explored by means of bioeconomic models at two different temporal scales, with the objective of investigating the interactive nature of environmental and human-induced changes on this globalised system. Short-term (interannual) environmental impacts on fishmeal production are considered by including an annual variable production rate on individual small pelagic fish stocks over a 10-year simulation period. These impacts on the resources are perceived by the fishmeal markets, where they are confronted by two aquaculture expansion hypotheses. Long-term (2080) environmental impacts on the same stocks are estimated using long-term primary production predictions as proxies for the species' carrying capacities, rather than using variable production rates, and are confronted on the market side by two alternative fishmeal management scenarios consistent with IPCC-type storylines. The two scenarios, World Markets and Global Commons, are parameterized through classic equilibrium solutions for a global surplus production bioeconomic model, namely maximum sustainable yield and open access, respectively. The fisheries explicitly modelled in this paper represent 70% of total fishmeal production, thus encapsulating the expected dynamics of the global production and consumption system. Both short and long-term simulations suggest that the sustainability of the small pelagic resources, in the face of climate variability and change, depends more on how society responds to climate impacts than on the magnitude of climate alterations per se.

  7. Variability in research ethics review of cluster randomized trials: a scenario-based survey in three countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) present unique ethical challenges. In the absence of a uniform standard for their ethical design and conduct, problems such as variability in procedures and requirements by different research ethics committees will persist. We aimed to assess the need for ethics guidelines for CRTs among research ethics chairs internationally, investigate variability in procedures for research ethics review of CRTs within and among countries, and elicit research ethics chairs’ perspectives on specific ethical issues in CRTs, including the identification of research subjects. The proper identification of research subjects is a necessary requirement in the research ethics review process, to help ensure, on the one hand, that subjects are protected from harm and exploitation, and on the other, that reviews of CRTs are completed efficiently. Methods A web-based survey with closed- and open-ended questions was administered to research ethics chairs in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The survey presented three scenarios of CRTs involving cluster-level, professional-level, and individual-level interventions. For each scenario, a series of questions was posed with respect to the type of review required (full, expedited, or no review) and the identification of research subjects at cluster and individual levels. Results A total of 189 (35%) of 542 chairs responded. Overall, 144 (84%, 95% CI 79 to 90%) agreed or strongly agreed that there is a need for ethics guidelines for CRTs and 158 (92%, 95% CI 88 to 96%) agreed or strongly agreed that research ethics committees could be better informed about distinct ethical issues surrounding CRTs. There was considerable variability among research ethics chairs with respect to the type of review required, as well as the identification of research subjects. The cluster-cluster and professional-cluster scenarios produced the most disagreement. Conclusions Research ethics committees

  8. Variability in environmental impacts of Brazilian soybean according to crop production and transport scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Vamilson Prudêncio; van der Werf, Hayo M G; Spies, Airton; Soares, Sebastião Roberto

    2010-09-01

    Soybean production and its supply chain are highly dependent on inputs such as land, fertilizer, fuel, machines, pesticides and electricity. The expansion of this crop in Brazil in recent decades has generated concerns about its environmental impacts. To assess these impacts, two representative chains supplying soybeans to Europe were identified: Center West (CW) and Southern (SO) Brazil. Each supply chain was analyzed using Life Cycle Assessment methodology. We considered different levels of use of chemical and organic fertilizers, pesticides and machinery, different distances for transportation of inputs and different yield levels. Because transportation contributed strongly to environmental impacts, a detailed study was performed to identify the routes used to transport soybeans to seaports. Additionally, we considered different levels of land occupation and land transformation to represent the impact of deforestation in the CW region. Environmental impacts were calculated for 1000 kg of soybean up to and including the delivery to Europe at the seaport in Rotterdam, at 13% humidity. Overall results showed that the impacts are greater for CW than for SO for all impact categories studied, including acidification (7.7 and 5.3 kg SO(2) eq., respectively), climate change (959 and 510 kg CO(2) eq.), cumulative energy demand (12,634 and 6,999 MJ) and terrestrial ecotoxicity (4.9 and 3.1 kg 1,4-DCB eq.), except eutrophication and land occupation. The same trend was observed for the crop-production stage. Efforts to reduce chemical fertilizers and diesel consumption can reduce CO(2) emissions. Although deforestation for crop production has decreased in recent years, the contribution of deforestation to climate change and cumulative energy demand remains significant. In the CW scenario deforestation contributed 29% to climate change and 20% to cumulative energy demand. Results also showed that although there are different transportation options in Brazil, the current

  9. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro

    2015-06-30

    The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.

  10. Analysis on Japan's long-term energy outlook considering massive deployment of variable renewable energy under nuclear energy scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates Japan's long-term energy outlook to 2050 considering massive deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) system and wind power generation under nuclear energy scenario. The extensive introduction of PV system and wind power system are expected to play an important role in enhancing electricity supply security after Fukushima Nuclear Power Accident which has increased the uncertainty of future additional construction of nuclear power plant in Japan. On these backgrounds, we develop integrated energy assessment model comprised of both econometric energy demand and supply model and optimal power generation mix model. The latter model is able to explicitly analyze the impact of output fluctuation in variable renewable in detailed time resolution at 10 minutes on consecutive 365 days, incorporating the role of stationary battery technology. Simulation results reveal that intermittent fluctuation derived from high penetration level of those renewables is controlled by quick load following operation by natural gas combined cycle power plant, pumped-storage hydro power, stationary battery technology and the output suppression of PV and wind power. The results show as well that massive penetration of the renewables does not necessarily require the comparable scale of stationary battery capacity. Additionally, on the scenario which assumes the decommissioning of nuclear power plants which lifetime are over 40 years, required PV capacity in 2050 amounts to more than double of PV installment potential in both building and abandoned farmland area. (author)

  11. Variability of critical frequency and M(3000)F2 at Tucuman and San Juan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ezquer, R.G.; Mosert, M.; Corbella, R.J.

    2002-01-01

    The variability of the M(3000)F2 factor and the critical frequency of the E and F2 ionospheric regions over two argentine stations for middle solar activity conditions is studied. To this end different parameters to specify variability are used, namely: standard deviation, difference between median to lower quartile and to upper quartile. The results show that low variability is observed for foE and M(3000)F2 factor at both stations for equinoxes and solstices. The coefficients of variability are lower than 10% for foE and M(3000)F2 factor. The highest variability was observed for foF2. In general, the foF2 coefficient of variability ranges between 0 and 30%, at both stations. (author)

  12. Coral Reef Habitat Suitability in Future Climate Scenarios from NCAR CESM1 considering a Suite of Biogeochemical Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, L. A.; Kleypas, J. A.; Miller, A. J.

    2013-12-01

    A maximum entropy species distribution model (Maxent) is used to describe coral reef habitat in current climate conditions and to predict changes to that habitat during the 21st century. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) were used with Maxent to determine environmental suitability for the family of corals Scleractina in 1° by 1° cells. Input environmental variables most suitable for representing coral habitat limitation are isolated using a principal component analysis and include cumulative thermal stress, salinity, light availability, current speed, phosphate levels and aragonite saturation state. Considering a suite of environmental variables allows for a more synergistic view of future habitat suitability, although individual variables are found to be limiting in certain areas- for example, aragonite saturation state is limiting at higher latitudes. Climate-driven coral reef habitat changes depend strongly on the oceanic region of interest and the region of corals used to train the niche model. Increased global coral habitat loss occurred in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections as time progressed through the 21th century. Maximum suitable habitat loss was 82% by 2100 for RCP8.5. When only Caribbean/Atlantic coral reef environmental data is applied globally, 88% of global habitat was lost by 2100 for RCP8.5. The global runs utilizing only Pacific Ocean reefs' ability to survive showed the most significant worldwide loss, 90% by 2100 for RCP8.5. When Maxent was trained with Indian Ocean reefs, an increase in suitable habitat worldwide was estimated. Habitat suitability was found to increase by 38% in RCP4.5 by 2100 and 28% in RCP8.5 by 2050. This suggests that shallow tropical sites in the Indian Ocean basin experience conditions today that are most similar to future worldwide climate projections. Indian Ocean reefs may be ideal candidate

  13. Needs for Flexibility in Energy Systems Caused by the Increasing Share of Variable Renewable Energy Generation in 2020, 2030 and 2050 Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Maule, Petr

    scenarios are the baseline scenarios from3. Variable renewable energy generation is analysed using the CorWind tool developed at DTU Wind Energya. In addition to analysing VRE generation, the variability of net load (electricity consumption subtracted by VRE generation) is analysed. Compared to 2014...... consumption). However, there is always some probability that the aggregate VRE generation is zero, so the highest possible net load is determined by peak consumption. This may raise questions considering the incentives to hold enough other generation capacity to meet the rare peak net load. Compared...... to the hourly ramp rates in consumption, the increasing VRE generation increases the ramp rates in the aggregate net load only moderately in the future scenarios; STD of the net load ramp rate in 2050 is expected to be 14% higher than in 2014. However, while ramp rates in consumption happen usually at well...

  14. Comparison of 2 intravenous insulin protocols: Glycemia variability in critically ill patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Garrido, Marta; Rodilla-Fiz, Ana M; Girón-Lacasa, María; Rodríguez-Rubio, Laura; Martínez-Blázquez, Anselmo; Martínez-López, Fernando; Pardo-Ibáñez, María Dolores; Núñez-Marín, Juan M

    2017-05-01

    Glycemic variability is an independent predictor of mortality in critically ill patients. The objective of this study was to compare two intravenous insulin protocols in critically ill patients regarding the glycemic variability. This was a retrospective observational study performed by reviewing clinical records of patients from a Critical Care Unit for 4 consecutive months. First, a simpler Scale-Based Intravenous Insulin Protocol (SBIIP) was reviewed and later it was compared for the same months of the following year with a Sliding Scale-Based Intravenous Insulin Protocol (SSBIIP). All adult patients admitted to the unit during the referred months were included. Patients in whom the protocol was not adequately followed were excluded. A total of 557 patients were reviewed, of whom they had needed intravenous insulin 73 in the first group and 52 in the second group. Four and two patients were excluded in each group respectively. Glycemic variability for both day 1 (DS1) and total stay (DST) was lower in SSBIIP patients compared to SBIIP patients: SD1 34.88 vs 18.16 and SDT 36.45 vs 23.65 (P<.001). A glycemic management protocol in critically ill patients based on sliding scales decreases glycemic variability. Copyright © 2017 SEEN. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  15. Feigenbaum scenario in the dynamics of a metal-oxide semiconductor heterostructure under harmonic perturbation. Golden mean criticality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cristescu, C.P.; Mereu, B.; Stan, Cristina; Agop, M.

    2009-01-01

    Experimental investigations and theoretical analysis on the dynamics of a metal-oxide semiconductor heterostructure used as nonlinear capacity in a series RLC electric circuit are presented. A harmonic voltage perturbation can induce various nonlinear behaviours, particularly evolution to chaos by period doubling and torus destabilization. In this work we focus on the change in dynamics induced by a sinusoidal driving with constant frequency and variable amplitude. Theoretical treatment based on the microscopic mechanisms involved led us to a dynamic system with a piecewise behaviour. Consequently, a model consisting of a nonlinear oscillator described by a piecewise second order ordinary differential equation is proposed. This kind of treatment is required by the asymmetry in the behaviour of the metal-oxide semiconductor with respect to the polarization of the perturbing voltage. The dynamics of the theoretical model is in good agreement with the experimental results. A connection with El Naschie's E-infinity space-time is established based on the interpretation of our experimental results as evidence of the importance of the golden mean criticality in the microscopic world.

  16. [Metabolic control in the critically ill patient an update: hyperglycemia, glucose variability hypoglycemia and relative hypoglycemia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Calatayud, Ángel Augusto; Guillén-Vidaña, Ariadna; Fraire-Félix, Irving Santiago; Anica-Malagón, Eduardo Daniel; Briones Garduño, Jesús Carlos; Carrillo-Esper, Raúl

    Metabolic changes of glucose in critically ill patients increase morbidity and mortality. The appropriate level of blood glucose has not been established so far and should be adjusted for different populations. However concepts such as glucose variability and relative hypoglycemia of critically ill patients are concepts that are changing management methods and achieving closer monitoring. The purpose of this review is to present new data about the management and metabolic control of patients in critical areas. Currently glucose can no longer be regarded as an innocent element in critical patients; both hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia increase morbidity and mortality of patients. Protocols and better instruments for continuous measurement are necessary to achieve the metabolic control of our patients. Copyright © 2016 Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  17. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mori, Nobuhito; Mai, Paul Martin

    2015-01-01

    distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry

  18. Job satisfaction and work related variables in Chinese cardiac critical care nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yun-E; While, Alison; Li, Shu-Jun; Ye, Wen-Qin

    2015-05-01

    To explore critical care nurses' views of their job satisfaction and the relationship with job burnout, practice environment, coping style, social support, intention to stay in current employment and other work-related variables. Nurse shortage is a global issue, especially in critical care. Job satisfaction is the most frequently cited factor linked to nurses' turnover. A convenience sample of cardiac critical care nurses (n = 215; 97.7% response rate) from 12 large general hospitals in Shanghai was surveyed from December 2010 to March 2011. Over half of the sample reported satisfaction with their jobs. Nurses with 10-20 years of professional experience and those who had taken all their holiday entitlement reported higher levels of job satisfaction. The independent variables of practice environment, intention to stay, emotional exhaustion, personal accomplishment and positive coping style explained about 55% of the variance in job satisfaction. Chinese cardiac critical care nurses' job satisfaction was related to work related variables, which are amenable to managerial action. Our findings highlight the imperative of improving intrinsic and extrinsic rewards, together with the flexibility of work schedules to promote job satisfaction and staff retention. A clinical ladder system is needed to provide promotion opportunities for Chinese nurses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Study of variables affecting critical value notification in a laboratory catering to tertiary care hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Rachna; Chhillar, Neelam; Tripathi, Chandra B

    2015-01-01

    During post-analytical phase, critical value notification to responsible caregiver in a timely manner has potential to improve patient safety which requires cooperative efforts between laboratory personnel and caregivers. It is widely accepted by hospital accreditors that ineffective notification can lead to diagnostic errors that potentially harm patients and are preventable. The objective of the study was to assess the variables affecting critical value notification, their role in affecting it's quality and approaches to improve it. In the present study 1,187 critical values were analysed in the Clinical Chemistry Laboratory catering to tertiary care hospital for neuropsychiatric diseases. During 25 months of study period, we evaluated critical value notification with respect to clinical care area, caregiver to whom it was notified and timeliness of notification. During the study period (25 months), the laboratory obtained 1,279 critical values in clinical chemistry. The analytes most commonly notified were sodium and potassium (20.97 & 20.8 % of total critical results). Analysis of critical value notification versus area of care showed that critical value notification was high in ICU and emergency area followed by inpatients and 64.61 % critical values were notified between 30 and 120 min after receiving the samples. It was found that failure to notify the responsible caregiver in timely manner represent an important patient safety issue and may lead to diagnostic errors. The major area of concern are notification of critical value for outpatient samples, incompleteness of test requisition forms regarding illegible writing, lack of information of treating physician and location of test ordering and difficulty in contacting the responsible caregiver.

  20. Variable RBE in proton therapy: comparison of different model predictions and their influence on clinical-like scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giovannini, Giulia; Böhlen, Till; Cabal, Gonzalo; Bauer, Julia; Tessonnier, Thomas; Frey, Kathrin; Debus, Jürgen; Mairani, Andrea; Parodi, Katia

    2016-01-01

    In proton radiation therapy a constant relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of 1.1 is usually assumed. However, biological experiments have evidenced RBE dependencies on dose level, proton linear energy transfer (LET) and tissue type. This work compares the predictions of three of the main radio-biological models proposed in the literature by Carabe-Fernandez, Wedenberg, Scholz and coworkers. Using the chosen models, a spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP) as well as two exemplary clinical cases (single field and two fields) for cranial proton irradiation, all delivered with state-of-the-art pencil-beam scanning, have been analyzed in terms of absorbed dose, dose-averaged LET (LET D ), RBE-weighted dose (D RBE ) and biological range shift distributions. In the systematic comparison of RBE predictions by the three models we could show different levels of agreement depending on (α/β) x and LET values. The SOBP study emphasizes the variation of LET D and RBE not only as a function of depth but also of lateral distance from the central beam axis. Application to clinical-like scenario shows consistent discrepancies from the values obtained for a constant RBE of 1.1, when using a variable RBE scheme for proton irradiation in tissues with low (α/β) x , regardless of the model. Biological range shifts of 0.6– 2.4 mm (for high (α/β) x ) and 3.0 – 5.4 mm (for low (α/β) x ) were found from the fall-off analysis of individual profiles of RBE-weighted fraction dose along the beam penetration depth. Although more experimental evidence is needed to validate the accuracy of the investigated models and their input parameters, their consistent trend suggests that their main RBE dependencies (dose, LET and (α/β) x ) should be included in treatment planning systems. In particular, our results suggest that simpler models based on the linear-quadratic formalism and LET D might already be sufficient to reproduce important RBE dependencies for re-evaluation of plans optimized with

  1. Critical Speed Control for a Fixed Blade Variable Speed Wind Turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morgan Rossander

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A critical speed controller for avoiding a certain rotational speed is presented. The controller is useful for variable speed wind turbines with a natural frequency in the operating range. The controller has been simulated, implemented and tested on an open site 12 kW vertical axis wind turbine prototype. The controller is based on an adaptation of the optimum torque control. Two lookup tables and a simple state machine provide the control logic of the controller. The controller requires low computational resources, and no wind speed measurement is needed. The results suggest that the controller is a feasible method for critical speed control. The skipping behavior can be adjusted using only two parameters. While tested on a vertical axis wind turbine, it may be used on any variable speed turbine with the control of generator power.

  2. Offshore Variability in Critical Weather Conditions in Large-Scale Wind Based Danish Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2013-01-01

    of the variability for the 2020 Danish power system, one can see that in the worst case, up to 1500 MW of power can be lost in 30 minutes. We present results showing how this issue is partially solved by the new High Wind Storm Controller presented by Siemens in the TWENTIES project.......Offshore wind power has a significant development potential, especially in North Europe. The geographical concentration of offshore wind power leads to increased variability and in the case of critical weather conditions it may lead to sudden and considerable loss of production. In this context......, the chances of losing several GW of wind power due to critical weather conditions in a very short time period could potentially jeopardize the whole system’s reliability and stability. Forecasting such events is not trivial and the results so far are not encouraging. When assessing the impact...

  3. Tsunami inundation variability from stochastic rupture scenarios: Application to multiple inversions of the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Mori, Nobuhito; Mai, Paul Martin; Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro

    2017-01-01

    earthquake in the Tohoku region to conduct thorough sensitivity analyses and to quantify the inundation variability. The numerical results indicate a strong influence of the reference source models on inundation variability, and demonstrate significant

  4. Kiloampere, Variable-Temperature, Critical-Current Measurements of High-Field Superconductors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, L F; Cheggour, N; Stauffer, T C; Filla, B J; Lu, X F

    2013-01-01

    We review variable-temperature, transport critical-current (I c) measurements made on commercial superconductors over a range of critical currents from less than 0.1 A to about 1 kA. We have developed and used a number of systems to make these measurements over the last 15 years. Two exemplary variable-temperature systems with coil sample geometries will be described: a probe that is only variable-temperature and a probe that is variable-temperature and variable-strain. The most significant challenge for these measurements is temperature stability, since large amounts of heat can be generated by the flow of high current through the resistive sample fixture. Therefore, a significant portion of this review is focused on the reduction of temperature errors to less than ±0.05 K in such measurements. A key feature of our system is a pre-regulator that converts a flow of liquid helium to gas and heats the gas to a temperature close to the target sample temperature. The pre-regulator is not in close proximity to the sample and it is controlled independently of the sample temperature. This allows us to independently control the total cooling power, and thereby fine tune the sample cooling power at any sample temperature. The same general temperature-control philosophy is used in all of our variable-temperature systems, but the addition of another variable, such as strain, forces compromises in design and results in some differences in operation and protocol. These aspects are analyzed to assess the extent to which the protocols for our systems might be generalized to other systems at other laboratories. Our approach to variable-temperature measurements is also placed in the general context of measurement-system design, and the perceived advantages and disadvantages of design choices are presented. To verify the accuracy of the variable-temperature measurements, we compared critical-current values obtained on a specimen immersed in liquid helium ("liquid" or I c liq) at 5

  5. Variability of linezolid concentrations after standard dosing in critically ill patients: a prospective observational study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Severe infections in intensive care patients show high morbidity and mortality rates. Linezolid is an antimicrobial drug frequently used in critically ill patients. Recent data indicates that there might be high variability of linezolid serum concentrations in intensive care patients receiving standard doses. This study was aimed to evaluate whether standard dosing of linezolid leads to therapeutic serum concentrations in critically ill patients. Methods In this prospective observational study, 30 critically ill adult patients with suspected infections received standard dosing of 600 mg linezolid intravenously twice a day. Over 4 days, multiple serum samples were obtained from each patient, in order to determine the linezolid concentrations by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. Results A high variability of serum linezolid concentrations was observed (range of area under the linezolid concentration time curve over 24 hours (AUC24) 50.1 to 453.9 mg/L, median 143.3 mg*h/L; range of trough concentrations (Cmin) linezolid concentrations over 24 hours and at single time points (defined according to the literature as AUC24  400 mg*h/L and Cmin > 10 mg/L) were observed for 7 of the patients. Conclusions A high variability of linezolid serum concentrations with a substantial percentage of potentially subtherapeutic levels was observed in intensive care patients. The findings suggest that therapeutic drug monitoring of linezolid might be helpful for adequate dosing of linezolid in critically ill patients. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01793012. Registered 24 January 2013. PMID:25011656

  6. Scenario-based resilience assessment framework for critical infrastructure systems: Case study for seismic resilience of seaports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafieezadeh, Abdollah; Ivey Burden, Lindsay

    2014-01-01

    A number of metrics in the past have been proposed and numerically implemented to assess the overall performance of large systems during natural disasters and their recovery in the aftermath of the events. Among such performance measures, resilience is a reliable metric. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework for scenario-based resilience assessment of infrastructure systems. The method accounts for uncertainties in the process including the correlation of the earthquake intensity measures, fragility assessment of structural components, estimation of repair requirements, the repair process, and finally the service demands. The proposed method is applied to a hypothetical seaport terminal and the system level performance of the seaport is assessed using various performance metrics. Results of this analysis have shown that medium to large seismic events may significantly disrupt the operation of seaports right after the event and the recovery process may take months. The proposed framework will enable port stakeholders to systematically assess the most-likely performance of the system during expected future earthquake events. - Highlights: • A scenario-based framework for seismic resilience assessment of systems is presented. • Seismic resilience of a hypothetical seaport with realistic settings is studied. • Berth availability is found to govern seaport functionality following earthquakes

  7. Radiological dose assessment for bounding accident scenarios at the Critical Experiment Facility, TA-18, Los Alamos National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    A computer modeling code, CRIT8, was written to allow prediction of the radiological doses to workers and members of the public resulting from these postulated maximum-effect accidents. The code accounts for the relationships of the initial parent radionuclide inventory at the time of the accident to the growth of radioactive daughter products, and considers the atmospheric conditions at time of release. The code then calculates a dose at chosen receptor locations for the sum of radionuclides produced as a result of the accident. Both criticality and non-criticality accidents are examined

  8. Needs for Flexibility Caused by the Variability and Uncertainty in Wind and Solar Generation in 2020, 2030 and 2050 Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Maule, Petr

    The growing share of variable renewable energy sources (VRE) in Nordic and Baltic countries is expected to increase the need for flexibility in the energy systems. VRE generation is highly variable because it is determined by weather conditions, and it is uncertain due to forecasting errors. Both...

  9. A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

    2009-03-01

    We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk.

  10. The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urban, Daniel W; Lobell, David B; Sheffield, Justin

    2015-01-01

    The United States is the largest producer of maize in the world, a crop for which demand continues to rise rapidly. Past studies have projected that climate change will negatively impact mean maize yields in this region, while at the same time increasing yield variability. However, some have questioned the accuracy of these projections because they are often based on indirect measures of soil moisture, have failed to explicitly capture the potential interactions between temperature and soil moisture availability, and often omit the beneficial effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on transpiration efficiency. Here we use a new detailed dataset on field-level yields in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois, along with fine-resolution daily weather data and moisture reconstructions, to evaluate the combined effects of moisture and heat on maize yields in the region. Projected climate change scenarios over this region from a suite of CMIP5 models are then used to assess future impacts and the differences between two contrasting emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We show that (i) statistical models which explicitly account for interactions between heat and moisture, which have not been represented in previous empirical models, lead to significant model improvement and significantly higher projected yield variability under warming and drying trends than when accounting for each factor independently; (ii) inclusion of the benefits of elevated CO 2 significantly reduces impacts, particularly for yield variability; and (iii) net damages from climate change and CO 2 become larger for the higher emission scenario in the latter half of the 21st century, and significantly so by the end of century. (paper)

  11. Modelling Framework for the Identification of Critical Variables and Parameters under Uncertainty in the Bioethanol Production from Lignocellulose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Meyer, Anne S.; Gernaey, Krist

    2011-01-01

    This study presents the development of a systematic modelling framework for identification of the most critical variables and parameters under uncertainty, evaluated on a lignocellulosic ethanol production case study. The systematic framework starts with: (1) definition of the objectives; (2......, suitable for further analysis of the bioprocess. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis identified the following most critical variables and parameters involved in the lignocellulosic ethanol production case study. For the operating cost, the enzyme loading showed the strongest impact, while reaction...

  12. Investigating Pre-Service Science Teachers' Critical Thinking Dispositions and Problem Solving Skills in Terms of Different Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yenice, Nilgun

    2011-01-01

    This study was conducted to examine pre-service science teachers' critical thinking dispositions and problem solving skills based on gender, grade level and graduated high school variables. Also relationship between pre-service science teachers' critical thinking dispositions and problem solving skills was examined based on gender, grade level and…

  13. Understanding effect of formulation and manufacturing variables on the critical quality attributes of warfarin sodium product.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Ziyaur; Korang-Yeboah, Maxwell; Siddiqui, Akhtar; Mohammad, Adil; Khan, Mansoor A

    2015-11-10

    Warfarin sodium (WS) is a narrow therapeutic index drug and its product quality should be thoroughly understood and monitored in order to avoid clinical performance issues. This study was focused on understanding the effect of manufacturing and formulation variables on WS product critical quality attributes (CQAs). Eight formulations were developed with lactose monohydrate (LM) or lactose anhydrous (LA), and were either wet granulated or directly compressed. Formulations were granulated either with ethanol, isopropyl alcohol (IPA) and IPA-water mixture (50:50). Formulations were characterized for IPA, water content, hardness, disintegration time (DT), assay, dissolution and drug physical forms (scanning electron microscopy (SEM), near infrared chemical imaging (NIR-CI), X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD) and solid state nuclear magnetic resonance (ssNMR)), and performed accelerated stability studies at 40°C/75% RH for three days. The DT and dissolution of directly compressed formulations were faster than wet granulated formulations. This was due to phase transformation of crystalline drug into its amorphous form as indicated by SEM, NIR-CI, XRPD and ssNMR data which itself act as a binder. Similarly, LM showed faster disintegration and dissolution than LA containing formulations. Stability results indicated an increase in hardness and DT, and a decrease in dissolution rate and extent. This was due to phase transformation of the drug and consolidation with particles' bonding. In conclusion, the CQAs of WS product were significantly affected by manufacturing and formulation variables. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Renewable energy scenario and disregarded petition of rural populace of an Indian island: A critical survey and concept of an inexpensive artifact

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghosh, Tamal; Nath, Saswata; Chakraborty, Tanmoy

    2011-07-01

    This study attempts to establish the challenges associated to solar energy scenario in rural living of south-east of Indian province namely West Bengal and to suggest an inexpensive solar artifact with an aim to cater to the areas which are scarcely electrified and primarily in countryside. Stockpile of fossil fuels are depleting and there is an urgent need of promoting renewable energy products that can pertinently be supported by this clean energy. Renewable energy is alternate source of energy or non-conventional energy such as, solar energy, water energy, wind energy, biomass and bio-gas energy, tidal energy, Geo-thermal energy, hydrogen energy. Scope of this article converges on disregarded demand scenario of rural inhabitants and fostering inexpensive appropriate solar technology based product. For subsequent investigation a critical socio-technical survey has also been conducted in the rural Sundarban area of Southern part of West Bengal, with an aim to acquire the glimpse of the presently operating government project on solar technology and to identify the demand and solar product there for.

  15. Influence of variable heat transfer coefficient of fireworks and crackers on thermal explosion critical ambient temperature and time to ignition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Zerong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To study the effect of variable heat transfer coefficient of fireworks and crackers on thermal explosion critical ambient temperature and time to ignition, considering the heat transfer coefficient as the power function of temperature, mathematical thermal explosion steady state and unsteady-state model of finite cylindrical fireworks and crackers with complex shell structures are established based on two-dimensional steady state thermal explosion theory. The influence of variable heat transfer coefficient on thermal explosion critical ambient temperature and time to ignition are analyzed. When heat transfer coefficient is changing with temperature and in the condition of natural convection heat transfer, critical ambient temperature lessen, thermal explosion time to ignition shorten. If ambient temperature is close to critical ambient temperature, the influence of variable heat transfer coefficient on time to ignition become large. For firework with inner barrel in example analysis, the critical ambient temperature of propellant is 463.88 K and the time to ignition is 4054.9s at 466 K, 0.26 K and 450.8s less than without considering the change of heat transfer coefficient respectively. The calculation results show that the influence of variable heat transfer coefficient on thermal explosion time to ignition is greater in this example. Therefore, the effect of variable heat transfer coefficient should be considered into thermal safety evaluation of fireworks to reduce potential safety hazard.

  16. Substantial Variability Exists in Utilities' Nuclear Decommissioning Funding Adequacy: Baseline Trends (1997-2001); and Scenario and Sensitivity Analyses (Year 2001)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, D. G.

    2003-01-01

    This paper explores the trends over 1997-2001 in my baseline simulation analysis of the sufficiency of electric utilities' funds to eventually decommission the nation's nuclear power plants. Further, for 2001, I describe the utilities' funding adequacy results obtained using scenario and sensitivity analyses, respectively. In this paper, I focus more on the wide variability observed in these adequacy measures among utilities than on the results for the ''average'' utility in the nuclear industry. Only individual utilities, not average utilities -- often used by the nuclear industry to represent its funding adequacy -- will decommission their nuclear plants. Industry-wide results tend to mask the varied results for individual utilities. This paper shows that over 1997-2001, the variability of my baseline decommissioning funding adequacy measures (in percentages) for both utility fund balances and current contributions has remained very large, reflected in the sizable ranges and frequency distributions of these percentages. The relevance of this variability for nuclear decommissioning funding adequacy is, of course, focused more on those utilities that show below ideal balances and contribution levels. Looking backward, 42 of 67 utility fund (available) balances, in 2001, were above (and 25 below) their ideal baseline levels; in 1997, 42 of 76 were above (and 34 below) ideal levels. Of these, many utility balances were far above, and many far below, such ideal levels. The problem of certain utilities continuing to show balances much below ideal persists even with increases in the adequacy of ''average'' utility balances

  17. A Correlational Study on Critical Thinking in Nursing as an Outcome Variable for Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Rebecca Jean

    2018-01-01

    Critical thinking is a required curricular outcome for nursing education; however, the literature shows a gap related to valid and reliable tools to measure critical thinking specific to nursing and relating that critical thinking measurement to meaningful outcomes. This study examined critical thinking scores, as measured by Assessment…

  18. Heart rate variability to monitor performance in elite athletes: Criticalities and avoidable pitfalls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucini, Daniela; Marchetti, Ilaria; Spataro, Antonio; Malacarne, Mara; Benzi, Manuela; Tamorri, Stefano; Sala, Roberto; Pagani, Massimo

    2017-08-01

    Spectral analysis of Heart Rate Variability (HRV) is a simple, non-invasive technique that is widely used in sport to assess sympatho-vagal regulation of the heart. Its employment is increasing partly due to the rising usage of wearable devices. However data acquisition using these devices may be suboptimal because they cannot discriminate between sinus and non-sinus beats and do not record any data regarding respiratory frequency. This information is mandatory for a correct clinical interpretation. This study involved 974 elite athletes, all of them underwent a complete autonomic assessment, by way of Autoregressive HRV analysis. In 91 subjects (9% of the total population) we observed criticalities of either cardiac rhythm or respiration. Through perusal of one-lead ECG analysis we observed that 77 subjects had atrial or ventricular ectopy, i.e. conditions which impair stationarity and sinus rhythm. Running anyway autonomic nervous system analysis in this population, we observed that RR variance and raw values of LF and HF regions are significantly higher in arrhythmic subjects. In addition 14 subjects had slow (about 6 breath/min, 0.1Hz) respiration. This condition clouds the separation between LF from HF spectral regions of RR interval variability, respectively markers of the prevalent sympathetic and vagal modulation of SA node and of their synergistic interaction. Caution must be payed when assessing HRV with non-ECG wearable devices. Recording ECG signal and ensuring that respiratory rate is higher than 10 breath/min are both prerequisites for a more reliable analysis of HRV particularly in athletes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Microsatellite variability reveals high genetic diversity and low genetic differentiation in a critical giant panda population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiandong YANG, Zhihe ZHANG, Fujun SHEN, Xuyu YANG, Liang ZHANG, Limin CHEN, Wenping ZHANG, Qing ZHU, Rong HOU

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding present patterns of genetic diversity is critical in order to design effective conservation and management strategies for endangered species. Tangjiahe Nature Reserve (NR is one of the most important national reserves for giant pandas Ailuropoda melanoleuca in China. Previous studies have shown that giant pandas in Tangjiahe NR may be threatened by population decline and fragmentation. Here we used 10 microsatellite DNA markers to assess the genetic variability in the Tangjiahe population. The results indicate a low level of genetic differentiation between the Hongshihe and Motianling subpopulations in the reserve. Assignment tests using the Bayesian clustering method in STRUCTURE identified one genetic cluster from 42 individuals of the two subpopulations. All individuals from the same subpopulation were assigned to one cluster. This indicates high gene flow between subpopulations. F statistic analyses revealed a low FIS-value of 0.024 in the total population and implies a randomly mating population in Tangjiahe NR. Additionally, our data show a high level of genetic diversity for the Tangjiahe population. Mean allele number (A, Allelic richness (AR and mean expected heterozygosity (HE for the Tangjiahe population was 5.9, 5.173 and 0.703, respectively. This wild giant panda population can be restored through concerted effort [Current Zoology 57 (6: 717–724, 2011].

  20. Impact on mortality of prompt admission to critical care for deteriorating ward patients: an instrumental variable analysis using critical care bed strain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Steve; Singer, Mervyn; Sanderson, Colin; Grieve, Richard; Harrison, David; Rowan, Kathryn

    2018-05-07

    To estimate the effect of prompt admission to critical care on mortality for deteriorating ward patients. We performed a prospective cohort study of consecutive ward patients assessed for critical care. Prompt admissions (within 4 h of assessment) were compared to a 'watchful waiting' cohort. We used critical care strain (bed occupancy) as a natural randomisation event that would predict prompt transfer to critical care. Strain was classified as low, medium or high (2+, 1 or 0 empty beds). This instrumental variable (IV) analysis was repeated for the subgroup of referrals with a recommendation for critical care once assessed. Risk-adjusted 90-day survival models were also constructed. A total of 12,380 patients from 48 hospitals were available for analysis. There were 2411 (19%) prompt admissions (median delay 1 h, IQR 1-2) and 9969 (81%) controls; 1990 (20%) controls were admitted later (median delay 11 h, IQR 6-26). Prompt admissions were less frequent (p care. In the risk-adjust survival model, 90-day mortality was similar. After allowing for unobserved prognostic differences between the groups, we find that prompt admission to critical care leads to lower 90-day mortality for patients assessed and recommended to critical care.

  1. A stochastic analysis of the impact of input parameters on profit of Australian pasture-based dairy farms under variable carbon price scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Özkan, Şeyda; Farquharson, Robert J.; Hill, Julian; Malcolm, Bill

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Two different pasture-based dairy feeding systems were evaluated. • The home-grown forage system outperformed the traditional pasture-based system. • Probability of achieving $200,000 income was reduced by imposition of a carbon tax. • Different farming systems will respond to change differently. • The ‘best choice’ for each individual farm is subjective. - Abstract: The imposition of a carbon tax in the economy will have indirect impacts on dairy farmers in Australia. Although there is a great deal of information available regarding mitigation strategies both in Australia and internationally, there seems to be a lack of research investigating the variable prices of carbon-based emissions on dairy farm operating profits in Australia. In this study, a stochastic analysis comparing the uncertainty in income in response to different prices on carbon-based emissions was conducted. The impact of variability in pasture consumption and variable prices of concentrates and hay on farm profitability was also investigated. The two different feeding systems examined were a ryegrass pasture-based system (RM) and a complementary forage-based system (CF). Imposing a carbon price ($20–$60) and not changing the systems reduced the farm operating profits by 28.4% and 25.6% in the RM and CF systems, respectively compared to a scenario where no carbon price was imposed. Different farming businesses will respond to variability in the rapidly changing operating environment such as fluctuations in pasture availability, price of purchased feeds and price of milk or carbon emissions differently. Further, in case there is a carbon price imposed for GHG emissions emanated from dairy farming systems, changing from pasture-based to more complex feeding systems incorporating home-grown double crops may reduce the reductions in farm operating profits. There is opportunity for future studies to focus on the impacts of different mitigation strategies and policy

  2. Is Critical Thinking a Mediator Variable of Student Performance in School?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Christel; Walter, Paul

    2018-01-01

    The study explores the influences of critical thinking and interests on students' performance at school. The tested students attended German grammar schools ("Gymnasien"). Separate regression analyses showed the expected moderate positive influences of critical thinking and interests on school performance. But analyzed simultaneously,…

  3. Gauss-Bonnet coupling constant as a free thermodynamical variable and the associated criticality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Wei; Xu, Hao; Zhao, Liu

    2014-01-01

    The thermodynamic phase space of Gauss-Bonnet (GB) AdS black holes is extended, taking the inverse of the GB coupling constant as a new thermodynamic pressure P GB . We studied the critical behavior associated with P GB in the extended thermodynamic phase space at fixed cosmological constant and electric charge. The result shows that when the black holes are neutral, the associated critical points can only exist in five dimensional GB-AdS black holes with spherical topology, and the corresponding critical exponents are identical to those for the Van der Waals system. For charged GB-AdS black holes, it is shown that there can be only one critical point in five dimensions (for black holes with either spherical or hyperbolic topologies), which also requires the electric charge to be bounded within some appropriate range; while in d < 5 dimensions, there can be up to two different critical points at the same electric charge, and the phase transition can occur only at temperatures which are not in between the two critical values. (orig.)

  4. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  5. A critical evaluation of depositional parameters controlling the variability of organic carbon in Arabian Sea sediments

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Paropkari, A.L.; PrakashBabu, C.; Mascarenhas, A.

    source of organic matter. However, a critical examination reveals that the organic enrichment on the slope of the Indian margin is two to four fold higher (max. 16.71%) than on the slope of the Arabian Peninsula (max. 7.54%) while the productivity...

  6. Operation and control of the critical variables of the process water treatment system in a juice factory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trejos Quesada, Juan Carlos

    2014-01-01

    The process water treatment system in a juice factory is studied to learn how to operate and chemically control the critical variables. The variables: concentration of total chlorine; Concentration of free chlorine; Total dissolved solids; alkalinity; hardness; PH; Turbidity are studied. A learning is obtained of the handling of equipment found in the industry, such as: pumps, dosing pumps controlled by frequency variables, static mixers, multimedia filters, carbon filters, storage tanks, electrovalves, flowmeters, pressure meters and equipment Ultraviolet radiation for disinfection. The operation of this equipment is learned to verify and maintain the critical variables in the specification range established by the company. A manual of operation of the system of water treatment and water analysis in the laboratory is carried out. The experience of the management of equipment for the treatment of water is acquired, comprehending integrally the system of water treatment and the process in general. A verification of the capacity of the equipment and the recommendation of the optimization of the system is realized for system improvements [es

  7. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  8. Statistical modeling methods to analyze the impacts of multiunit process variability on critical quality attributes of Chinese herbal medicine tablets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Fei; Xu, Bing; Zhang, Yi; Dai, Shengyun; Yang, Chan; Cui, Xianglong; Shi, Xinyuan; Qiao, Yanjiang

    2016-01-01

    The quality of Chinese herbal medicine tablets suffers from batch-to-batch variability due to a lack of manufacturing process understanding. In this paper, the Panax notoginseng saponins (PNS) immediate release tablet was taken as the research subject. By defining the dissolution of five active pharmaceutical ingredients and the tablet tensile strength as critical quality attributes (CQAs), influences of both the manipulated process parameters introduced by an orthogonal experiment design and the intermediate granules' properties on the CQAs were fully investigated by different chemometric methods, such as the partial least squares, the orthogonal projection to latent structures, and the multiblock partial least squares (MBPLS). By analyzing the loadings plots and variable importance in the projection indexes, the granule particle sizes and the minimal punch tip separation distance in tableting were identified as critical process parameters. Additionally, the MBPLS model suggested that the lubrication time in the final blending was also important in predicting tablet quality attributes. From the calculated block importance in the projection indexes, the tableting unit was confirmed to be the critical process unit of the manufacturing line. The results demonstrated that the combinatorial use of different multivariate modeling methods could help in understanding the complex process relationships as a whole. The output of this study can then be used to define a control strategy to improve the quality of the PNS immediate release tablet.

  9. Statistical modeling methods to analyze the impacts of multiunit process variability on critical quality attributes of Chinese herbal medicine tablets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Fei; Xu, Bing; Zhang, Yi; Dai, Shengyun; Yang, Chan; Cui, Xianglong; Shi, Xinyuan; Qiao, Yanjiang

    2016-01-01

    The quality of Chinese herbal medicine tablets suffers from batch-to-batch variability due to a lack of manufacturing process understanding. In this paper, the Panax notoginseng saponins (PNS) immediate release tablet was taken as the research subject. By defining the dissolution of five active pharmaceutical ingredients and the tablet tensile strength as critical quality attributes (CQAs), influences of both the manipulated process parameters introduced by an orthogonal experiment design and the intermediate granules’ properties on the CQAs were fully investigated by different chemometric methods, such as the partial least squares, the orthogonal projection to latent structures, and the multiblock partial least squares (MBPLS). By analyzing the loadings plots and variable importance in the projection indexes, the granule particle sizes and the minimal punch tip separation distance in tableting were identified as critical process parameters. Additionally, the MBPLS model suggested that the lubrication time in the final blending was also important in predicting tablet quality attributes. From the calculated block importance in the projection indexes, the tableting unit was confirmed to be the critical process unit of the manufacturing line. The results demonstrated that the combinatorial use of different multivariate modeling methods could help in understanding the complex process relationships as a whole. The output of this study can then be used to define a control strategy to improve the quality of the PNS immediate release tablet. PMID:27932865

  10. A critical oscillation constant as a variable of time scales for half-linear dynamic equations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Řehák, Pavel

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 2 (2010), s. 237-256 ISSN 0139-9918 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB100190701 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : dynamic equation * time scale * half-linear equation * (non)oscillation criteria * Hille-Nehari criteria * Kneser criteria * critical constant * oscillation constant * Hardy inequality Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.316, year: 2010 http://link.springer.com/article/10.2478%2Fs12175-010-0009-7

  11. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  12. Carbon-water Cycling in the Critical Zone: Understanding Ecosystem Process Variability Across Complex Terrain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnard, Holly [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Brooks, Paul [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)

    2016-06-16

    One of the largest knowledge gaps in environmental science is the ability to understand and predict how ecosystems will respond to future climate variability. The links between vegetation, hydrology, and climate that control carbon sequestration in plant biomass and soils remain poorly understood. Soil respiration is the second largest carbon flux of terrestrial ecosystems, yet there is no consensus on how respiration will change as water availability and temperature co-vary. To address this knowledge gap, we use the variation in soil development and topography across an elevation and climate gradient on the Front Range of Colorado to conduct a natural experiment that enables us to examine the co-evolution of soil carbon, vegetation, hydrology, and climate in an accessible field laboratory. The goal of this project is to further our ability to combine plant water availability, carbon flux and storage, and topographically driven hydrometrics into a watershed scale predictive model of carbon balance. We hypothesize: (i) landscape structure and hydrology are important controls on soil respiration as a result of spatial variability in both physical and biological drivers: (ii) variation in rates of soil respiration during the growing season is due to corresponding shifts in belowground carbon inputs from vegetation; and (iii) aboveground carbon storage (biomass) and species composition are directly correlated with soil moisture and therefore, can be directly related to subsurface drainage patterns.

  13. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  14. Critical variables in the performance of a productivity-enhanced solar still

    KAUST Repository

    Ayoub, George M.

    2013-12-01

    A new and sustainable modification has been introduced into the conventional solar still, considerably increasing its productivity. This enhancement in the solar still productivity is achieved without forsaking the basic features of the still such as low cost, ease of handling, sustainability, water quality, material availability, low maintenance and space conservation. The introduced modification is in the form of a slowly rotating hollow drum within the still cavity that allows the formation of thin water films, which evaporate rapidly. Several environmental and operational parameters attribute to the optimization of the new still design. Environmental factors refer primarily to weather conditions such as solar intensity, relative humidity, ambient temperature and wind speed and direction. Operational variables include drum speed, brine depth in the basin, cover cooling and other related parameters such as the materials used and the still configuration. The influence of these parameters is discussed and their impact on productivity is investigated in detailed order to identify existing correlations and optimize design and operation of the new system. An error analysis was conducted for all experimental data obtained from this study. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Supplement to the methodology for risk evaluation: Proposal for the formats of names, parameters, variables, units and symbols to be used in emission scenario documents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poel P van der; CSR

    2001-01-01

    De EU werkgroep voor het verzamelen, beoordelen en ontwikkelen van emissie scenario's voor biociden (EUBEES) doet in dit rapport een voorstel om tot een uniforme manier van naamgeving en het gebruik van symbolen te komen, die aansluit bij de lijsten met symbolen van EUSES en USES (Appendix

  16. Statistical modeling methods to analyze the impacts of multiunit process variability on critical quality attributes of Chinese herbal medicine tablets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sun F

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Fei Sun,1 Bing Xu,1,2 Yi Zhang,1 Shengyun Dai,1 Chan Yang,1 Xianglong Cui,1 Xinyuan Shi,1,2 Yanjiang Qiao1,2 1Research Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine Information Engineering, School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, 2Key Laboratory of Manufacture Process Control and Quality Evaluation of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, People’s Republic of China Abstract: The quality of Chinese herbal medicine tablets suffers from batch-to-batch variability due to a lack of manufacturing process understanding. In this paper, the Panax notoginseng saponins (PNS immediate release tablet was taken as the research subject. By defining the dissolution of five active pharmaceutical ingredients and the tablet tensile strength as critical quality attributes (CQAs, influences of both the manipulated process parameters introduced by an orthogonal experiment design and the intermediate granules’ properties on the CQAs were fully investigated by different chemometric methods, such as the partial least squares, the orthogonal projection to latent structures, and the multiblock partial least squares (MBPLS. By analyzing the loadings plots and variable importance in the projection indexes, the granule particle sizes and the minimal punch tip separation distance in tableting were identified as critical process parameters. Additionally, the MBPLS model suggested that the lubrication time in the final blending was also important in predicting tablet quality attributes. From the calculated block importance in the projection indexes, the tableting unit was confirmed to be the critical process unit of the manufacturing line. The results demonstrated that the combinatorial use of different multivariate modeling methods could help in understanding the complex process relationships as a whole. The output of this study can then be used to define a control strategy to improve the quality of the PNS immediate release tablet. Keywords: Panax

  17. Trace Metal Bioremediation: Assessment of Model Components from Laboratory and Field Studies to Identify Critical Variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peter Jaffe; Herschel Rabitz

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this project was to gain an insight into the modeling support needed for the understanding, design, and operation of trace metal/radionuclide bioremediation. To achieve this objective, a workshop was convened to discuss the elements such a model should contain. A ''protomodel'' was developed, based on the recommendations of the workshop, and was used to perform sensitivity analysis as well as some preliminary simulations in support for bioremediation test experiments at UMTRA sites. To simulate the numerous biogeochemical processes that will occur during the bioremediation of uranium contaminated aquifers, a time-dependent one-dimensional reactive transport model has been developed. The model consists of a set of coupled, steady state mass balance equations, accounting for advection, diffusion, dispersion, and a kinetic formulation of the transformations affecting an organic substrate, electron acceptors, corresponding reduced species, and uranium. This set of equations is solved numerically, using a finite element scheme. The redox conditions of the domain are characterized by estimating the pE, based on the concentrations of the dominant terminal electron acceptor and its corresponding reduced specie. This pE and the concentrations of relevant species are passed to a modified version of MINTEQA2, which calculates the speciation and solubilities of the species of interest. Kinetics of abiotic reactions are described as being proportional to the difference between the actual and equilibrium concentration. A global uncertainty assessment, determined by Random Sampling High Dimensional Model Representation (RS-HDMR), was performed to attain a phenomenological understanding of the origins of output variability and to suggest input parameter refinements as well as to provide guidance for field experiments to improve the quality of the model predictions. Results indicated that for the usually high nitrate contents found ate many DOE sites, overall

  18. Spatial Variability of Soil-Water Storage in the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory: Measurement and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oroza, C.; Bales, R. C.; Zheng, Z.; Glaser, S. D.

    2017-12-01

    Predicting the spatial distribution of soil moisture in mountain environments is confounded by multiple factors, including complex topography, spatial variably of soil texture, sub-surface flow paths, and snow-soil interactions. While remote-sensing tools such as passive-microwave monitoring can measure spatial variability of soil moisture, they only capture near-surface soil layers. Large-scale sensor networks are increasingly providing soil-moisture measurements at high temporal resolution across a broader range of depths than are accessible from remote sensing. It may be possible to combine these in-situ measurements with high-resolution LIDAR topography and canopy cover to estimate the spatial distribution of soil moisture at high spatial resolution at multiple depths. We study the feasibility of this approach using six years (2009-2014) of daily volumetric water content measurements at 10-, 30-, and 60-cm depths from the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory. A non-parametric, multivariate regression algorithm, Random Forest, was used to predict the spatial distribution of depth-integrated soil-water storage, based on the in-situ measurements and a combination of node attributes (topographic wetness, northness, elevation, soil texture, and location with respect to canopy cover). We observe predictable patterns of predictor accuracy and independent variable ranking during the six-year study period. Predictor accuracy is highest during the snow-cover and early recession periods but declines during the dry period. Soil texture has consistently high feature importance. Other landscape attributes exhibit seasonal trends: northness peaks during the wet-up period, and elevation and topographic-wetness index peak during the recession and dry period, respectively.

  19. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  20. Associations between bolus infusion of hydrocortisone, glycemic variability and insulin infusion rate variability in critically Ill patients under moderate glycemic control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hooijdonk, Roosmarijn T. M.; Binnekade, Jan M.; Bos, Lieuwe D. J.; Horn, Janneke; Juffermans, Nicole P.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Schultz, Marcus J.

    2015-01-01

    We retrospectively studied associations between bolus infusion of hydrocortisone and variability of the blood glucose level and changes in insulin rates in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. 'Glycemic variability' and 'insulin infusion rate variability' were calculated from and expressed as the

  1. Critical Assessment of Analytical Techniques in the Search for Biomarkers on Mars: A Mummified Microbial Mat from Antarctica as a Best-Case Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco, Yolanda; Gallardo-Carreño, Ignacio; Ruiz-Bermejo, Marta; Puente-Sánchez, Fernando; Cavalcante-Silva, Erika; Quesada, Antonio; Prieto-Ballesteros, Olga; Parro, Víctor

    2017-10-01

    The search for biomarkers of present or past life is one of the major challenges for in situ planetary exploration. Multiple constraints limit the performance and sensitivity of remote in situ instrumentation. In addition, the structure, chemical, and mineralogical composition of the sample may complicate the analysis and interpretation of the results. The aim of this work is to highlight the main constraints, performance, and complementarity of several techniques that have already been implemented or are planned to be implemented on Mars for detection of organic and molecular biomarkers on a best-case sample scenario. We analyzed a 1000-year-old desiccated and mummified microbial mat from Antarctica by Raman and IR (infrared) spectroscopies (near- and mid-IR), thermogravimetry (TG), differential thermal analysis, mass spectrometry (MS), and immunological detection with a life detector chip. In spite of the high organic content (ca. 20% wt/wt) of the sample, the Raman spectra only showed the characteristic spectral peaks of the remaining beta-carotene biomarker and faint peaks of phyllosilicates over a strong fluorescence background. IR spectra complemented the mineralogical information from Raman spectra and showed the main molecular vibrations of the humic acid functional groups. The TG-MS system showed the release of several volatile compounds attributed to biopolymers. An antibody microarray for detecting cyanobacteria (CYANOCHIP) detected biomarkers from Chroococcales, Nostocales, and Oscillatoriales orders. The results highlight limitations of each technique and suggest the necessity of complementary approaches in the search for biomarkers because some analytical techniques might be impaired by sample composition, presentation, or processing. Key Words: Planetary exploration-Life detection-Microbial mat-Life detector chip-Thermogravimetry-Raman spectroscopy-NIR-DRIFTS. Astrobiology 17, 984-996.

  2. Critical Assessment of Analytical Techniques in the Search for Biomarkers on Mars: A Mummified Microbial Mat from Antarctica as a Best-Case Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco, Yolanda; Gallardo-Carreño, Ignacio; Ruiz-Bermejo, Marta; Puente-Sánchez, Fernando; Cavalcante-Silva, Erika; Quesada, Antonio; Prieto-Ballesteros, Olga; Parro, Víctor

    2017-10-01

    The search for biomarkers of present or past life is one of the major challenges for in situ planetary exploration. Multiple constraints limit the performance and sensitivity of remote in situ instrumentation. In addition, the structure, chemical, and mineralogical composition of the sample may complicate the analysis and interpretation of the results. The aim of this work is to highlight the main constraints, performance, and complementarity of several techniques that have already been implemented or are planned to be implemented on Mars for detection of organic and molecular biomarkers on a best-case sample scenario. We analyzed a 1000-year-old desiccated and mummified microbial mat from Antarctica by Raman and IR (infrared) spectroscopies (near- and mid-IR), thermogravimetry (TG), differential thermal analysis, mass spectrometry (MS), and immunological detection with a life detector chip. In spite of the high organic content (ca. 20% wt/wt) of the sample, the Raman spectra only showed the characteristic spectral peaks of the remaining beta-carotene biomarker and faint peaks of phyllosilicates over a strong fluorescence background. IR spectra complemented the mineralogical information from Raman spectra and showed the main molecular vibrations of the humic acid functional groups. The TG-MS system showed the release of several volatile compounds attributed to biopolymers. An antibody microarray for detecting cyanobacteria (CYANOCHIP) detected biomarkers from Chroococcales, Nostocales, and Oscillatoriales orders. The results highlight limitations of each technique and suggest the necessity of complementary approaches in the search for biomarkers because some analytical techniques might be impaired by sample composition, presentation, or processing.

  3. Transport critical current measurement apparatus using liquid nitrogen cooled high-T(c) superconducting magnet with variable temperature insert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishijima, G; Kitaguchi, H; Tshuchiya, Y; Nishimura, T; Kato, T

    2013-01-01

    We have developed an apparatus to investigate transport critical current (I(c)) as a function of magnetic field and temperature using only liquid nitrogen. The apparatus consists of a (Bi,Pb)(2)Sr(2)Ca(2)Cu(3)O(10) (Bi-2223) superconducting magnet, an outer dewar, and a variable temperature insert (VTI). The magnet, which is operated in depressurized liquid nitrogen, generates magnetic field up to 1.26 T. The sample is also immersed in liquid nitrogen. The pressure in the VTI is controlled from 0.02 to 0.3 MPa, which corresponds to temperature ranging from 66 to 88 K. We have confirmed the long-term stable operation of the Bi-2223 magnet at 1 T. The temperature stability of the sample at high transport current was also demonstrated. The apparatus provides easy-operating I(c) measurement environment for a high-T(c) superconductor up to 500 A in magnetic fields up to 1 T and in temperatures ranging from 66 to 88 K.

  4. Study of the impact on PSA success criteria of the variability of the initial liquid level in case of the loss of the RHR system accident scenario under mid-loop operating conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villanueva, J.F.; Carlos, S.; Martorell, S.; Serradell, V.; Pelayo, F.; Mendizabal, R.; Cirauqui, C.; Sol, I.

    2005-01-01

    Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is recognized nowadays as an important tool to support risk-informed decision-making aimed at providing both operational flexibility and plant safety [1]. Experience of current PSA studies shows the importance of some risky scenarios with the plant at low power and shutdown conditions as compared to the accident scenarios with the plant operating at full power. In particular, current low power and shutdown PSA (LPSA) studies shows that the loss of the Residual Heat Removal System (RHRS) transient is one of the most risk-significant events under low power conditions [2]. This accident type is supposed to occur for various plant operating states, of which mid-loop operation represents one of the main contributors [3]. LPSA has widely used methods for thermal-hydraulic analysis that play an important role in determining success criteria of safety-related functions involved to mitigate the severity of accident scenarios with the plant operating in such conditions. Various best estimate thermal-hydraulic analysis codes have been used to analyze the loss of the RHRS during low power and shutdown conditions [4, 5]. It is known that RELAP code can give good results as derived after a number of benchmark exercises using results from experiments at research facilities (e.g. ROSA-IV, BETHSY, PKL). [6] Previous research has shown how thermal-hydraulic phenomena after the loss of the RHRS, e.g. peak reactor coolant system pressure, are sensitive to the initial liquid level at the time of loss of the RHRS [2]. This paper presents the results of the study of the thermalhydraulic analysis of the accident scenarios after the loss of the RHRS under mid-loop conditions paying particular attention to the analysis of the effect of the variability of the initial liquid level on the success criteria of the safety-related functions considered in a typical LPSA [3]. (author)

  5. "The relationship between pharmacokinetic variables and pharmacodynamic profiles of bolus versus continuous infusion of furosemide in critically ill patients"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    "Mojtaba Mojtahedzadeh

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available In this investigation, the pharmacokinetic variables of continuous infusion and intermittent bolus injection of furosemide and the possible relationship between its pharmacokinetic characteristics and pharmacodynamic profile among intensive care unit (ICU patients were studied. In this prospective, randomized, clinical trial, twelve patients received IV bolus of 20 mg of the drug during 3 hours period and, the drug dose was doubled, when the urine output was less than 1 ml/kg/h (group 1. The other nine patients received a continuous intravenous furosemide infusion at the rate of 0.1 mg/kg/h (group 2. The amount of furosemide in serum was measured by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC. Results showed a positive correlation between plasma clearance of furosemide and its diuretic activity (P=0.01. The pharmacokinetic parameters such as Vd (l, CL (ml/min, Ke (min-1 and t½ (min in continuous infusion patients were not significantly differed from the bolus patients (P-values 0.5, 0.9, 0.9,0.9, respectively. Nevertheless the observed plasma clearance of drug in the continuous infusion group was clinically higher than bolus injection group and as a result the cumulative urine output per hour per mg of furosemide in a continuous infusion was observed to be higher than bolus(P=0.2. Changes in serum sodium and potassium were similar for both groups, but bolus injection patients were associated with higher potassium depletion (P=0.001. Therefore, continuous infusion seems to be better means of diuretic therapy in critically ill patients.

  6. Freight railway transport: Critical variables to improve the transport applied to infrastructure costs and its associated traffic flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zakowska, L.; Pulawska-Obiedowska, S.

    2016-07-01

    The developed societies have as challenge, among others, to achieve a mobility development based on economic models of low carbon and energy efficient, making it accessible to the entire population. In this context, the sustainable mobility seems to meet the economic, social and environmental needs, minimizing their negative impact. There are three factors that are relevant: (1) infrastructures; (2) modes of transport more ecological and safe, and (3) operations and services for passengers and freights.The objective of this research is to provide guidance to investment in sustainable transport infrastructures that are truly useful and effective. In particular we have studied the case of the railway, using the following information: details of the infrastructure; cost of construction (per kilometre); maintenance cost, and life cycle. This information may be relevant to consider their possible business models.The methodology of this research was focused in the detailed analysis of the infrastructure use and maintenance criteria, the market opportunities for freight development and the available data to validate the obtained results from the software tool reached in this work. Our research includes the different following aspects:• Evaluation of the supported traffic by the rail line.• Relevant items to be considered in the rail infrastructure. Defining the track, we can group items in two sets: civil and rail installations.• Rolling stock available. Locomotives and wagons are modelled to introduce the data as convenience for the user.Besides our research includes the development of software, Decision System Tool (DST), for studying the construction and maintenance cost of railway infrastructure. It is developed in a common and open source program, providing the user the interaction with the critical variable of the line. It has been adjusted using the following references: MOM PlanCargorail; EcoTransIT, and Projects funded by Framework Program of EU (New

  7. Thermodynamic variables of first-order entropy corrected Lovelock-AdS black holes: P{-}V criticality analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haldar, Amritendu; Biswas, Ritabrata

    2018-06-01

    We investigate the effect of thermal fluctuations on the thermodynamics of a Lovelock-AdS black hole. Taking the first order logarithmic correction term in entropy we analyze the thermodynamic potentials like Helmholtz free energy, enthalpy and Gibbs free energy. We find that all the thermodynamic potentials are decreasing functions of correction coefficient α . We also examined this correction coefficient must be positive by analysing P{-}V diagram. Further we study the P{-}V criticality and stability and find that presence of logarithmic correction in it is necessary to have critical points and stable phases. When P{-}V criticality appears, we calculate the critical volume V_c, critical pressure P_c and critical temperature T_c using different equations and show that there is no critical point for this black hole without thermal fluctuations. We also study the geometrothermodynamics of this kind of black holes. The Ricci scalar of the Ruppeiner metric is graphically analysed.

  8. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  9. Knowledge Management in a Competitive Scenario of an Information Technology Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise de Cuffa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This research aimed at proposing a knowledge management plan to increase competitiveness in an information technology company. It used qualitative methodology based on a study case, which analyzed the context of internal and external environments in which Intelitech Company operates. The data collection was divided into three steps: (1 application of a questionnaire to the manager and Intelitech employees, which was composed of knowledge management practices (KMPs, aiming at obtaining previous practices from the company and therefore internal critical variables; (2 application of Rojo’s (2005 scenario simulation model in order to identify external critical variables; and (3 formulation of a proposal for KMPs improvements according to simulated scenarios and the internal and external critical variables previously identified. So, this research resulted in the development of an action plan for two scenarios: (C1 case scenario to expansion of the market, therefore the company could hire new employees and expand its physical structure o, enhance IT tools and ask for manager's flexibility towards a new culture; and (C2 also to observe an unfavorable scenario of restricted market, it would be necessary to build customers loyal order to use IT tools, as well as interact and communicate with them. Thus, it was concluded and confirmed the hypothesis that knowledge management can enhance competitiveness of an IT company.

  10. Variability of electricity load patterns and its effect on demand response: A critical peak pricing experiment on Korean commercial and industrial customers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Dongsik; Eom, Jiyong; Jae Park, Min; Jeung Rho, Jae

    2016-01-01

    To the extent that demand response represents an intentional electricity usage adjustment to price changes or incentive payments, consumers who exhibit more-variable load patterns on normal days may be capable of altering their loads more significantly in response to dynamic pricing plans. This study investigates the variation in the pre-enrollment load patterns of Korean commercial and industrial electricity customers and their impact on event-day loads during a critical peak pricing experiment in the winter of 2013. Contrary to conventional approaches to profiling electricity loads, this study proposes a new clustering technique based on variability indices that collectively represent the potential demand–response resource that these customers would supply. Our analysis reveals that variability in pre-enrollment load patterns does indeed have great predictive power for estimating their impact on demand–response loads. Customers in relatively low-variability clusters provided limited or no response, whereas customers in relatively high-variability clusters consistently presented large load impacts, accounting for most of the program-level peak reductions. This study suggests that dynamic pricing programs themselves may not offer adequate motivation for meaningful adjustments in load patterns, particularly for customers in low-variability clusters. - Highlights: • A method of clustering customers by variability indices is developed. • Customers in high-variability clusters provide substantial peak reductions. • Low-variability clusters exhibit limited reductions. • For low-variability customers, alternative policy instruments is well advised. • A model of discerning customer's demand response potential is suggested.

  11. Rivers of the Andes and the Amazon Basin: Deciphering global change from the hydroclimatic variability in the critical zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira-Turcq, Patricia; Carlo Espinoza, Jhan; Filizola, Naziano; Martinez, Jean-Michel

    2018-01-01

    The Critical Zone has been defined as the thin layer of the continental surfaces extending from fresh bedrock and the bottom of groundwater up to vegetation canopy, where soil, rock, water, air, and living organisms interact (Banwart et al., 2012; Lin et al., 2011). Despite the Critical Zone's importance to terrestrial life, it remains poorly understood. In this context, understanding the complex interactions between physical, chemical, and biological processes of the Critical Zone requires long-term observations (Anderson et al., 2012; Brantley et al., 2017), not only because different mechanisms have varying time frames, but also because it is necessary to monitor its natural and anthropogenic evolution in response to global climate and environmental changes.

  12. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  13. On the use of Standardized Drought Indices under decadal climate variability: Critical assessment and drought policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Núñez, J.; Rivera, D.; Oyarzún, R.; Arumí, J. L.

    2014-09-01

    Since the recent High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy held in Geneva in 2013, a greater concern about the creation and adaptation of national drought monitoring systems is expected. Consequently, backed by international recommendations, the use of Standardized Drought Indices (SDI), such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), as an operational basis of drought monitoring systems has been increasing in many parts of the world. Recommendations for the use of the SPI, and consequently, those indices that share its properties, do not take into account the limitations that this type of index can exhibit under the influence of multidecadal climate variability. These limitations are fundamentally related to the lack of consistency among the operational definition expressed by this type of index, the conceptual definition with which it is associated and the political definition it supports. Furthermore, the limitations found are not overcome by the recommendations for their application. This conclusion is supported by the long-term study of the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) in the arid north-central region of Chile, under the influence of multidecadal climate variability. The implications of the findings of the study are discussed with regard to their link to aspects of drought policy in the cases of Australia, the United States and Chile.

  14. Identification of the Critical Nontechnical Skills for Surgeons Needed for High Performance in a Variable-resource Context (NOTSS-VRC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, John W; Lin, Yihan; Ntakiyiruta, Georges; Mutabazi, Zeta; Davis, William A; Morris, Megan A; Smink, Douglas S; Riviello, Robert; Yule, Steven

    2018-05-17

    To identify the critical nontechnical skills (NTS) required for high performance in variable-resource contexts (VRC). As surgical training and capacity increase in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), new strategies for improving surgical education and care in these settings are required. NTS are critical for high performance in surgery around the world. However, the essential NTS used by surgeons operating in LMICs to overcome the challenges specific to their contexts have never been described. Using a constructivist grounded theory approach, 52 intraoperative team observations as well as 34 critical incident interviews with surgical providers (surgeons, anesthetists, and nurses) were performed at the 4 tertiary referral hospitals in Rwanda. Interview transcripts and field notes from observations were analyzed using line-by-line coding to identify emerging themes until thematic saturation was achieved. Four skill categories of situation awareness, decision-making, communication/teamwork, and leadership emerged. This provided the framework for a contextually informed skills taxonomy consisting of 12 skill elements with examples of specific behaviors indicative of high performance. While the main skill categories were consistent with those encountered in high-income countries, the specific behaviors associated with these skills often focused on overcoming the frequently encountered variability in resources, staff, systems support, and language in this context. This is the first description of the critical nontechnical skills, and associated example behaviors, used by surgeons in a VRC to overcome common challenges to safe and effective surgical patient care. Improvements in the NTS used by surgeons operating in VRCs have the potential to improve surgical care delivery worldwide.

  15. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  16. A quality by design (QbD case study on enteric-coated pellets: Screening of critical variables and establishment of design space at laboratory scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuling Kan

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to prepare naproxen enteric-coated pellets (NAP-ECPs by fluid-bed coating using QbD principle. Risk assessment was firstly performed by using failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA methodology. A Plackett–Burman design was then used for assessment of the most important variables affecting enteric-coated pellets characteristics. A Box–Behnken design was subsequently used for investigating the main, interactive, and quadratic effects of these variables on the response. By FMEA we discovered that eight factors should be considered to be high/important risk variables as compared with others. The responses of acid resistance and cumulative drug release were taken as critical quality attributes (CQAs. Pareto ranking analyses indicated that the coating weight gain (X7, triethyl citrate percentage (X1 and glycerol monostearate percentage (X2 were the most significant factors affecting the selected responses out of the eight high-risk variables. Optimization with response surface method (RSM further fully clarified the relationship between X7, X1, X2 and CQAs, and design space was established based on the constraints set on the responses. Due to the extreme coincidence of the predicted value generated by model with the observed value, the accuracy and robustness of the model were confirmed. It could be concluded that a promising NAP-ECPs was successfully designed using QbD approach in a laboratory scale.

  17. Variable use of amiodarone is associated with a greater risk of recurrence of atrial fibrillation in the critically ill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrić, Goran; Udy, Andrew; Bandeshe, Hiran; Clement, Pierre; Boots, Rob

    2016-04-02

    Atrial fibrillation is a common rhythm disturbance in the general medical-surgical intensive care unit. Amiodarone is a popular drug in this setting but evidence to inform clinical practice remains scarce. We aimed to identify whether variation in the clinical use of amiodarone was associated with recurrent atrial fibrillation. This was a retrospective audit of 177 critically ill patients who developed new-onset atrial fibrillation after admission to a tertiary level medical-surgical trauma intensive care unit. Patterns of amiodarone prescription (including dosage schedule and duration) were assessed in relation to recurrence of atrial fibrillation during the intensive care unit stay. Known recurrence risk factors, such as inotrope administration, cardiac disease indices, Charlson Comorbidity Index, magnesium concentrations, fluid balance, and potassium concentrations, were also included in adjusted analysis using forward stepwise logistic regression modelling. The cohort had a median (interquartile range) age of 69 years (60-75), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evalution II score of 22 (17-28) and Charlson Comorbidity Index of 2 (1-4). A bolus dose of amiodarone followed by infusion (P = 0.02), in addition to continuing amiodarone infusion through to discharge from the intensive care unit (P < 0.001), were associated with less recurrent dysrhythmia. Recurrence after successful treatment was associated with ceasing amiodarone while an inotrope infusion continued (P < 0.001), and was more common in patients with a prior history of congestive cardiac failure (P = 0.04), and a diagnosis of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (P = 0.02). Amiodarone should be administered as a bolus dose followed immediately with an infusion when treating atrial fibrillation in the medical-surgical intensive care unit. Consideration should be given to continuing amiodarone infusions in patients on inotropes until they are ceased.

  18. Idées nouvelles concernant la variable critique de Leloup. Utilisation de cette variable dans le cas des graisses et dans le cas de l'eau New Ldeas About the Leloup Critical Variable. Use of This Variable for Lubricants and Water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bozet J.

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Cet article est essentiellement consacré au fonctionnement. d'un palier lisse en conditions limites, les films édifiés à l'interface étant trop minces pour éviter les interactions de surface. L'auteur montre tout d'abord la relation qui existe entre la variable de Leloup, utilisée par un grand nombre de praticiens, et les caractéristiques du film élasto-hydrodynamique qui se développe aux environs du point critique. Il étudie ensuite le comportement de coussinets graphités lubrifiés à l'eau ; il introduit enfin la lubrification à la graisse de paliers lisses classiques. L'analyse des résultats obtenus au laboratoire permet de conclure à la validité de la variable L pour les deux fluides utilisés. A l'issue de son travail, l'auteur indique que la localisation du point critique relevé expérimentalement dans le cas d'une lubrification à la graisse dépend essentiellement des caractéristiques de l'huile de base, le savon ne jouant qu'un rôle très secondaire. This article mainly deals with the boundary lubrication of journal bearings in which the films at the interfaces are too thin to prevent surface friction. The article first describes the relation existing between the Leloup variable used by a great many technicians and the properties of the elastohydrodynamic film created in the area around the critical point. It then examines the behavior of water-lubricated graphite bearings before going on to the lubrication of conventional journal bearings with grease. An analysis of laboratory results leads to the conclusion that the L variable is valid for both types of fluids. The article concludes by situating the critical point determined experimentally on bearings lubricated with grease. The location of this critical point depends mainly on the properfies of the base oil, in which soap plays only a very secondary role.

  19. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  20. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  1. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  2. Measurements of soil, surface water, and groundwater CO2 concentration variability within Earth's critical zone: low-cost, long-term, high-temporal resolution monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackstock, J. M.; Covington, M. D.; Williams, S. G. W.; Myre, J. M.; Rodriguez, J.

    2017-12-01

    Variability in CO2 fluxes within Earth's Critical zone occurs over a wide range of timescales. Resolving this and its drivers requires high-temporal resolution monitoring of CO2 both in the soil and aquatic environments. High-cost (> 1,000 USD) gas analyzers and data loggers present cost-barriers for investigations with limited budgets, particularly if high spatial resolution is desired. To overcome high-costs, we developed an Arduino based CO2 measuring platform (i.e. gas analyzer and data logger). The platform was deployed at multiple sites within the Critical Zone overlying the Springfield Plateau aquifer in Northwest Arkansas, USA. The CO2 gas analyzer used in this study was a relatively low-cost SenseAir K30. The analyzer's optical housing was covered by a PTFE semi-permeable membrane allowing for gas exchange between the analyzer and environment. Total approximate cost of the monitoring platform was 200 USD (2% detection limit) to 300 USD (10% detection limit) depending on the K30 model used. For testing purposes, we deployed the Arduino based platform alongside a commercial monitoring platform. CO2 concentration time series were nearly identical. Notably, CO2 cycles at the surface water site, which operated from January to April 2017, displayed a systematic increase in daily CO2 amplitude. Preliminary interpretation suggests key observation of seasonally increasing stream metabolic function. Other interpretations of observed cyclical and event-based behavior are out of the scope of the study; however, the presented method describes an accurate near-hourly characterization of CO2 variability. The new platform has been shown to be operational for several months, and we infer reliable operation for much longer deployments (> 1 year) given adequate environmental protection and power supply. Considering cost-savings, this platform is an attractive option for continuous, accurate, low-power, and low-cost CO2 monitoring for remote locations, globally.

  3. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  4. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  5. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  6. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  7. Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

    2010-12-01

    Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

  8. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  9. Data on respiratory variables in critically ill patients with acute respiratory failure placed on proportional assist ventilation with load adjustable gain factors (PAV+

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitris Georgopoulos

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The data show respiratory variables in 108 critically ill patients with acute respiratory failure placed on proportional assist ventilation with load adjustable gain factors (PAV+ after at least 36 h on passive mechanical ventilation. PAV+ was continued for 48 h until the patients met pre-defined criteria either for switching to controlled modes or for breathing without ventilator assistance. Data during passive mechanical ventilation and during PAV+ are reported. Data are acquired from the whole population, as well as from patients with and without acute respiratory distress syndrome. The reported variables are tidal volume, driving pressure (ΔP, the difference between static end-inspiratory plateau pressure and positive end-expiratory airway pressure, respiratory system compliance and resistance, and arterial blood gasses. The data are supplemental to our original research article, which described individual ΔP in these patients and examined how it related to ΔP when the same patients were ventilated with passive mechanical ventilation using the currently accepted lung-protective strategy “Driving pressure during assisted mechanical ventilation. Is it controlled by patient brain?” [1]. Keywords: Tidal volume, Compliance, Driving pressure

  10. Critical assessment of precracked specimen configuration and experimental test variables for stress corrosion testing of 7075-T6 aluminum alloy plate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domack, M. S.

    1985-01-01

    A research program was conducted to critically assess the effects of precracked specimen configuration, stress intensity solutions, compliance relationships and other experimental test variables for stress corrosion testing of 7075-T6 aluminum alloy plate. Modified compact and double beam wedge-loaded specimens were tested and analyzed to determine the threshold stress intensity factor and stress corrosion crack growth rate. Stress intensity solutions and experimentally determined compliance relationships were developed and compared with other solutions available in the literature. Crack growth data suggests that more effective crack length measurement techniques are necessary to better characterize stress corrosion crack growth. Final load determined by specimen reloading and by compliance did not correlate well, and was considered a major source of interlaboratory variability. Test duration must be determined systematically, accounting for crack length measurement resolution, time for crack arrest, and experimental interferences. This work was conducted as part of a round robin program sponsored by ASTM committees G1.06 and E24.04 to develop a standard test method for stress corrosion testing using precracked specimens.

  11. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Z.

    1992-01-01

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  12. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  13. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  14. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  15. Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

  16. The Nature and Variability of Automated Practice Alerts Derived from Electronic Health Records in a U.S. Nationwide Critical Care Research Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benthin, Cody; Pannu, Sonal; Khan, Akram; Gong, Michelle

    2016-10-01

    The nature, variability, and extent of early warning clinical practice alerts derived from automated query of electronic health records (e-alerts) currently used in acute care settings for clinical care or research is unknown. To describe e-alerts in current use in acute care settings at medical centers participating in a nationwide critical care research network. We surveyed investigators at 38 institutions involved in the National Institutes of Health-funded Clinical Trials Network for the Prevention and Early Treatment of Acute Lung Injury (PETAL) for quantitative and qualitative analysis. Thirty sites completed the survey (79% response rate). All sites used electronic health record systems. Epic Systems was used at 56% of sites; the others used alternate commercially available vendors or homegrown systems. Respondents at 57% of sites represented in this survey used e-alerts. All but 1 of these 17 sites used an e-alert for early detection of sepsis-related syndromes, and 35% used an e-alert for pneumonia. E-alerts were triggered by abnormal laboratory values (37%), vital signs (37%), or radiology reports (15%) and were used about equally for clinical decision support and research. Only 59% of sites with e-alerts have evaluated them either for accuracy or for validity. A majority of the research network sites participating in this survey use e-alerts for early notification of potential threats to hospitalized patients; however, there was significant variability in the nature of e-alerts between institutions. Use of one common electronic health record vendor at more than half of the participating sites suggests that it may be possible to standardize e-alerts across multiple sites in research networks, particularly among sites using the same medical record platform.

  17. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  18. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  19. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  20. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  1. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  2. Comparing recent uranium supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, N.; Gufler, K.

    2014-01-01

    For more than one decade – even after the Fukushima accidents - an increase in global nuclear energy generation capacity is widely expected. At the same time a variety of uranium supply scenarios were published by industry, academics or international organizations, drawing different pictures of future uranium supply. They were created with the background of a uranium market facing several challenges. First an excursion in the uranium market price, in 2007, then reduced nuclear growth expectations after 2011, at least in non-Asian countries, also implying considerable changes to the supply side. For this publication a meta-study was carried out identifying, evaluating and comparing different recent scenarios on the availability of uranium. While there are some differences in the frame conditions (e.g. the expected uranium demand, the time fame, the considered mining projects,..), there are also notable similarities in these scenarios. This concerns long lead times for mine openings as well as the dependence on large mining projects (e.g. Olympic Dam, Cigar Lake). Generally, a decline in production in about 10 years is assumed, and thus the necessity of the timely development of mining projects is pointed out. In addition the omission of uranium from Russian nuclear weapons and the chances of keeping the changes in secondary supplies in balance with primary production have been widely discussed. Here, the production growth in Kazakhstan but also the role of the current market situation are central aspects. As another aspect the possible contribution from unconventional resources is of interest, particularly against the background of rising production costs for conventional resources. Finally, it shall be reflected how well older scenarios were able to map the reality and which trends could or could not be anticipated. It is relevant to identify which aspects in the development of mining capacities are essential for security of supply, and can therefore be regarded

  3. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  4. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  5. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  6. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  7. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  8. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

  9. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  10. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  11. The Association of Glucose Variability and Home Discharge Among Survivors of Critical Illness Managed With a Computerized Decision-Support Tool for Glycemic Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Lavi; Spellman, Craig

    2014-03-01

    In-intensive care unit (ICU) glucose variability (GV) is associated with increased mortality. However, the impact of GV on hospital survivors' morbidity and associated changes in destination at time of hospital discharge are unknown. We studied a retrospective patient cohort in a medical/surgical ICU, requiring insulin infusion, using computer-guided insulin dosing software. Standard deviation (Glu SD ) and coefficient of variation (Glu CV ) were used as GV measures. We examined rates of home discharge (H) in the whole cohort and selected subgroups across GV quartiles, between patients with and without H, determinants of H, and determinants of GV and its association with patients' ICU length of stay (LOS). A total of 351 patients met study criteria. The association of GV and H varied among examined subgroups. H increased with GV quartile (Glu SD ; P = .004). GV was higher in patients with H than non-H (Glu SD 36.1 vs 30.0 mg/dl, respectively; P = .002). Increased GV was not a predictor of reduced H on multivariate analysis. GV was inversely associated with patients' ICU LOS in all examined subgroups. Increased number of hypoglycemic events and time to attain target glycemia were independent predictors of reduced H. GV was not associated with adverse impact on H in the present cohort, and its prognostic impact should be considered in the context of ICU LOS of examined patient populations. Further studies are needed to examine the morbidity effects of GV and other glycemia-related measures among hospital survivors of critical illness across varying ICU populations, glycemic control approaches, and glycemic targets. © 2014 Diabetes Technology Society.

  12. The negaWatt 2011 scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-03-01

    This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

  13. Hanford groundwater scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

    1977-05-01

    This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

  14. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

  15. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  16. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  17. Variable stars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feast, M.W.; Wenzel, W.; Fernie, J.D.; Percy, J.R.; Smak, J.; Gascoigne, S.C.B.; Grindley, J.E.; Lovell, B.; Sawyer Hogg, H.B.; Baker, N.; Fitch, W.S.; Rosino, L.; Gursky, H.

    1976-01-01

    A critical review of variable stars is presented. A fairly complete summary of major developments and discoveries during the period 1973-1975 is given. The broad developments and new trends are outlined. Essential problems for future research are identified. (B.R.H. )

  18. Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Melen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

  19. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  20. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  1. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  2. ILC Operating Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barklow, T.; Brau, J.; Fujii, K.; Gao, J.; List, J.; Walker, N.; Yokoya, K.; Collaboration: ILC Parameters Joint Working Group

    2015-06-15

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

  3. Erosion scenarios for Wellenberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemenz, W.

    1993-09-01

    The proposed Wellenberg site for a radioactive waste repository is located between Altzellen in the Engelberger valley and the Oberrickenbach valley, in a thick Valanginian marl series. The marl is generally overlaid with unconsolidated rocks but reaches to the surface in some places. In contrast to the situation in the Oberbauenstock region this marl complex is not protected by an overlying erosion resistant series and exhibits a marked relief. The question therefore arises with respect to the Wellenberg site, to what extent will the marl (i.e. the repository host rock formation) be removed by erosion processes during the 100,000 years interval under consideration and what overburden will remain at the end of this period. This report presents the results of an investigation of the longterm behaviour of the proposed site in respect of those processes of erosion and deposition which can lead to changes in the terrain surface and its location relative to the repository. A wide range of possible scenarios encompassing different developments of climatic conditions during the 100,000 year period of interest, was investigated. In addition to the continuation of the present climate and the occurrence of a new ice age on the scale of the Wuerm glaciation the consequences of altered climatic conditions on erosion removal of the repository overburden were considered. Within the 100,000 year period of interest none of the scenarios considered leads to the exposure of the repository. (author) figs., tabs, refs

  4. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  5. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  6. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  7. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  8. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  9. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1996-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  10. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C; Holopainen, E; Kaurola, J; Ruosteenoja, K; Raeisaenen, J [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1997-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  11. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  12. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  13. Search for top squark pair production in compressed-mass-spectrum scenarios in proton-proton collisions at $ \\sqrt{s} = $ 8 TeV using the ${\\alpha_\\mathrm{T}}$ variable

    CERN Document Server

    Khachatryan, Vardan; Tumasyan, Armen; Adam, Wolfgang; Aşılar, Ece; Bergauer, Thomas; Brandstetter, Johannes; Brondolin, Erica; Dragicevic, Marko; Erö, Janos; Flechl, Martin; Friedl, Markus; Fruehwirth, Rudolf; Ghete, Vasile Mihai; Hartl, Christian; Hörmann, Natascha; Hrubec, Josef; Jeitler, Manfred; König, Axel; Krammer, Manfred; Krätschmer, Ilse; Liko, Dietrich; Matsushita, Takashi; Mikulec, Ivan; Rabady, Dinyar; Rad, Navid; Rahbaran, Babak; Rohringer, Herbert; Schieck, Jochen; Strauss, Josef; Treberer-Treberspurg, Wolfgang; Waltenberger, Wolfgang; Wulz, Claudia-Elisabeth; Mossolov, Vladimir; Shumeiko, Nikolai; Suarez Gonzalez, Juan; Alderweireldt, Sara; Cornelis, Tom; De Wolf, Eddi A; Janssen, Xavier; Knutsson, Albert; Lauwers, Jasper; Luyckx, Sten; Van De Klundert, Merijn; Van Haevermaet, Hans; Van Mechelen, Pierre; Van Remortel, Nick; Van Spilbeeck, Alex; Abu Zeid, Shimaa; Blekman, Freya; D'Hondt, Jorgen; Daci, Nadir; De Bruyn, Isabelle; Deroover, Kevin; Heracleous, Natalie; Keaveney, James; 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Erdmann, Martin; Erdweg, Sören; Esch, Thomas; Fischer, Robert; Güth, Andreas; Hebbeker, Thomas; Heidemann, Carsten; Hoepfner, Kerstin; Knutzen, Simon; Merschmeyer, Markus; Meyer, Arnd; Millet, Philipp; Mukherjee, Swagata; Olschewski, Mark; Padeken, Klaas; Papacz, Paul; Pook, Tobias; Radziej, Markus; Reithler, Hans; Rieger, Marcel; Scheuch, Florian; Sonnenschein, Lars; Teyssier, Daniel; Thüer, Sebastian; Cherepanov, Vladimir; Erdogan, Yusuf; Flügge, Günter; Geenen, Heiko; Geisler, Matthias; Hoehle, Felix; Kargoll, Bastian; Kress, Thomas; Künsken, Andreas; Lingemann, Joschka; Nehrkorn, Alexander; Nowack, Andreas; Nugent, Ian Michael; Pistone, Claudia; Pooth, Oliver; Stahl, Achim; Aldaya Martin, Maria; Asin, Ivan; Beernaert, Kelly; Behnke, Olaf; Behrens, Ulf; Borras, Kerstin; Campbell, Alan; Connor, Patrick; Contreras-Campana, Christian; Costanza, Francesco; Diez Pardos, Carmen; Dolinska, Ganna; Dooling, Samantha; Eckerlin, Guenter; Eckstein, Doris; Eichhorn, Thomas; Gallo, Elisabetta; Garay Garcia, Jasone; 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Klanner, Robert; Kogler, Roman; Kovalchuk, Nataliia; Lapsien, Tobias; Lenz, Teresa; Marchesini, Ivan; Marconi, Daniele; Meyer, Mareike; Niedziela, Marek; Nowatschin, Dominik; Ott, Jochen; Pantaleo, Felice; Peiffer, Thomas; Perieanu, Adrian; Pietsch, Niklas; Poehlsen, Jennifer; Sander, Christian; Scharf, Christian; Schleper, Peter; Schlieckau, Eike; Schmidt, Alexander; Schumann, Svenja; Schwandt, Joern; Stadie, Hartmut; Steinbrück, Georg; Stober, Fred-Markus Helmut; Tholen, Heiner; Troendle, Daniel; Usai, Emanuele; Vanelderen, Lukas; Vanhoefer, Annika; Vormwald, Benedikt; Barth, Christian; Baus, Colin; Berger, Joram; Böser, Christian; Butz, Erik; Chwalek, Thorsten; Colombo, Fabio; De Boer, Wim; Descroix, Alexis; Dierlamm, Alexander; Fink, Simon; Frensch, Felix; Friese, Raphael; Giffels, Manuel; Gilbert, Andrew; Haitz, Dominik; Hartmann, Frank; Heindl, Stefan Michael; Husemann, Ulrich; Katkov, Igor; Kornmayer, Andreas; Lobelle Pardo, Patricia; Maier, Benedikt; Mildner, Hannes; Mozer, Matthias Ulrich; Müller, Thomas; Müller, Thomas; Plagge, Michael; Quast, Gunter; Rabbertz, Klaus; Röcker, Steffen; Roscher, Frank; Schröder, Matthias; Sieber, Georg; Simonis, Hans-Jürgen; Ulrich, Ralf; Wagner-Kuhr, Jeannine; Wayand, Stefan; Weber, Marc; Weiler, Thomas; Williamson, Shawn; Wöhrmann, Clemens; Wolf, Roger; Anagnostou, Georgios; Daskalakis, Georgios; Geralis, Theodoros; Giakoumopoulou, Viktoria Athina; Kyriakis, Aristotelis; Loukas, Demetrios; Psallidas, Andreas; Topsis-Giotis, Iasonas; Agapitos, Antonis; Kesisoglou, Stilianos; Panagiotou, Apostolos; Saoulidou, Niki; Tziaferi, Eirini; Evangelou, Ioannis; Flouris, Giannis; Foudas, Costas; Kokkas, Panagiotis; Loukas, Nikitas; Manthos, Nikolaos; Papadopoulos, Ioannis; Paradas, Evangelos; Strologas, John; Filipovic, Nicolas; Bencze, Gyorgy; Hajdu, Csaba; Hidas, Pàl; Horvath, Dezso; Sikler, Ferenc; Veszpremi, Viktor; Vesztergombi, Gyorgy; Zsigmond, Anna Julia; Beni, Noemi; Czellar, Sandor; Karancsi, János; Molnar, Jozsef; Szillasi, Zoltan; Bartók, Márton; 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Dall'Osso, Martino; De Castro Manzano, Pablo; Dorigo, Tommaso; Fanzago, Federica; Gonella, Franco; Gozzelino, Andrea; Gulmini, Michele; Kanishchev, Konstantin; Lacaprara, Stefano; Margoni, Martino; Meneguzzo, Anna Teresa; Montecassiano, Fabio; Passaseo, Marina; Pazzini, Jacopo; Pegoraro, Matteo; Pozzobon, Nicola; Ronchese, Paolo; Simonetto, Franco; Torassa, Ezio; Tosi, Mia; Ventura, Sandro; Zanetti, Marco; Zotto, Pierluigi; Zucchetta, Alberto; Zumerle, Gianni; Braghieri, Alessandro; Magnani, Alice; Montagna, Paolo; Ratti, Sergio P; Re, Valerio; Riccardi, Cristina; Salvini, Paola; Vai, Ilaria; Vitulo, Paolo; Alunni Solestizi, Luisa; Bilei, Gian Mario; Ciangottini, Diego; Fanò, Livio; Lariccia, Paolo; Leonardi, Roberto; Mantovani, Giancarlo; Menichelli, Mauro; Saha, Anirban; Santocchia, Attilio; Androsov, Konstantin; Azzurri, Paolo; Bagliesi, Giuseppe; Bernardini, Jacopo; Boccali, Tommaso; Castaldi, Rino; Ciocci, Maria Agnese; Dell'Orso, Roberto; Donato, Silvio; Fedi, Giacomo; Giassi, Alessandro; Grippo, Maria Teresa; Ligabue, Franco; Lomtadze, Teimuraz; Martini, Luca; Messineo, Alberto; Palla, Fabrizio; Rizzi, Andrea; Savoy-Navarro, Aurore; Spagnolo, Paolo; Tenchini, Roberto; Tonelli, Guido; Venturi, Andrea; Verdini, Piero Giorgio; Barone, Luciano; Cavallari, Francesca; D'imperio, Giulia; Del Re, Daniele; Diemoz, Marcella; Gelli, Simone; Jorda, Clara; Longo, Egidio; Margaroli, Fabrizio; Meridiani, Paolo; Organtini, Giovanni; Paramatti, Riccardo; Preiato, Federico; Rahatlou, Shahram; Rovelli, Chiara; Santanastasio, Francesco; Amapane, Nicola; Arcidiacono, Roberta; Argiro, Stefano; Arneodo, Michele; Bartosik, Nazar; Bellan, Riccardo; Biino, Cristina; Cartiglia, Nicolo; Costa, Marco; Covarelli, Roberto; Degano, Alessandro; Demaria, Natale; Finco, Linda; Kiani, Bilal; Mariotti, Chiara; Maselli, Silvia; Migliore, Ernesto; Monaco, Vincenzo; Monteil, Ennio; Obertino, Maria Margherita; Pacher, Luca; Pastrone, Nadia; Pelliccioni, Mario; Pinna Angioni, Gian Luca; Ravera, Fabio; Romero, Alessandra; Ruspa, Marta; Sacchi, Roberto; Sola, Valentina; Solano, Ada; Staiano, Amedeo; Traczyk, Piotr; Belforte, Stefano; Candelise, Vieri; Casarsa, Massimo; Cossutti, Fabio; Della Ricca, Giuseppe; La Licata, Chiara; Schizzi, Andrea; Zanetti, Anna; Nam, Soon-Kwon; Kim, Dong Hee; Kim, Gui Nyun; Kim, Min Suk; Kong, Dae Jung; Lee, Sangeun; Lee, Seh Wook; Oh, Young Do; Sakharov, Alexandre; Son, Dong-Chul; Yang, Yu Chul; Brochero Cifuentes, Javier Andres; Kim, Hyunsoo; Kim, Tae Jeong; Song, Sanghyeon; Cho, Sungwoong; Choi, Suyong; Go, Yeonju; Gyun, Dooyeon; Hong, Byung-Sik; Jo, Youngkwon; Kim, Yongsun; Lee, Byounghoon; Lee, Kisoo; Lee, Kyong Sei; Lee, Songkyo; Lim, Jaehoon; Park, Sung Keun; Roh, Youn; Yoo, Hwi Dong; Choi, Minkyoo; Kim, Hyunchul; Kim, Hyunyong; Kim, Ji Hyun; Lee, Jason Sang Hun; Park, Inkyu; Ryu, Geonmo; Ryu, Min Sang; Choi, Young-Il; Goh, Junghwan; Kim, Donghyun; Kwon, Eunhyang; Lee, Jongseok; Yu, Intae; Dudenas, Vytautas; Juodagalvis, Andrius; Vaitkus, Juozas; Ahmed, Ijaz; Ibrahim, Zainol Abidin; Komaragiri, Jyothsna Rani; Md Ali, Mohd Adli Bin; Mohamad Idris, Faridah; Wan Abdullah, Wan Ahmad Tajuddin; Yusli, Mohd Nizam; Zolkapli, Zukhaimira; Casimiro Linares, Edgar; Castilla-Valdez, Heriberto; De La Cruz-Burelo, Eduard; Heredia-De La Cruz, Ivan; Hernandez-Almada, Alberto; Lopez-Fernandez, Ricardo; Mejia Guisao, Jhovanny; Sánchez Hernández, Alberto; Carrillo Moreno, Salvador; Vazquez Valencia, Fabiola; Pedraza, Isabel; Salazar Ibarguen, Humberto Antonio; Uribe Estrada, Cecilia; Morelos Pineda, Antonio; Krofcheck, David; Butler, Philip H; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Muhammad; Hassan, Qamar; Hoorani, Hafeez R; Khan, Wajid Ali; Qazi, Shamona; Shoaib, Muhammad; Waqas, Muhammad; Bialkowska, Helena; Bluj, Michal; Boimska, Bożena; Frueboes, Tomasz; Górski, Maciej; Kazana, Malgorzata; Nawrocki, Krzysztof; Romanowska-Rybinska, Katarzyna; Szleper, Michal; Zalewski, Piotr; Brona, Grzegorz; Bunkowski, Karol; Byszuk, Adrian; Doroba, Krzysztof; Kalinowski, Artur; Konecki, Marcin; Krolikowski, Jan; Misiura, Maciej; Olszewski, Michal; Walczak, Marek; Bargassa, Pedrame; Beirão Da Cruz E Silva, Cristóvão; Di Francesco, Agostino; Faccioli, Pietro; Ferreira Parracho, Pedro Guilherme; Gallinaro, Michele; Hollar, Jonathan; Leonardo, Nuno; Lloret Iglesias, Lara; Nemallapudi, Mythra Varun; Nguyen, Federico; Rodrigues Antunes, Joao; Seixas, Joao; Toldaiev, Oleksii; Vadruccio, Daniele; Varela, Joao; Vischia, Pietro; Afanasiev, Serguei; Bunin, Pavel; Gavrilenko, Mikhail; Golutvin, Igor; Gorbunov, Ilya; Karjavin, Vladimir; Lanev, Alexander; Malakhov, Alexander; Matveev, Viktor; Moisenz, Petr; Palichik, Vladimir; Perelygin, Victor; Savina, Maria; Shmatov, Sergey; Shulha, Siarhei; Skatchkov, Nikolai; Smirnov, Vitaly; Voytishin, Nikolay; Zarubin, Anatoli; Golovtsov, Victor; Ivanov, Yury; Kim, Victor; Kuznetsova, Ekaterina; Levchenko, Petr; Murzin, Victor; Oreshkin, Vadim; Smirnov, Igor; Sulimov, Valentin; Uvarov, Lev; Vavilov, Sergey; Vorobyev, Alexey; Andreev, Yuri; Dermenev, Alexander; Gninenko, Sergei; Golubev, Nikolai; Karneyeu, Anton; Kirsanov, Mikhail; Krasnikov, Nikolai; Pashenkov, Anatoli; Tlisov, Danila; Toropin, Alexander; Epshteyn, Vladimir; Gavrilov, Vladimir; Lychkovskaya, Natalia; Popov, Vladimir; Pozdnyakov, Ivan; Safronov, Grigory; Spiridonov, Alexander; Toms, Maria; Vlasov, Evgueni; Zhokin, Alexander; Chadeeva, Marina; Chistov, Ruslan; Popova, Elena; Rusinov, Vladimir; Tarkovskii, Evgenii; Andreev, Vladimir; Azarkin, Maksim; Dremin, Igor; Kirakosyan, Martin; Leonidov, Andrey; Mesyats, Gennady; Rusakov, Sergey V; Baskakov, Alexey; Belyaev, Andrey; Boos, Edouard; Dubinin, Mikhail; Dudko, Lev; Ershov, Alexander; Gribushin, Andrey; Klyukhin, Vyacheslav; Kodolova, Olga; Lokhtin, Igor; Miagkov, Igor; Obraztsov, Stepan; Petrushanko, Sergey; Savrin, Viktor; Snigirev, Alexander; Azhgirey, Igor; Bayshev, Igor; Bitioukov, Sergei; Kachanov, Vassili; Kalinin, Alexey; Konstantinov, Dmitri; Krychkine, Victor; Petrov, Vladimir; Ryutin, Roman; Sobol, Andrei; Tourtchanovitch, Leonid; Troshin, Sergey; Tyurin, Nikolay; Uzunian, Andrey; Volkov, Alexey; Adzic, Petar; Cirkovic, Predrag; Devetak, Damir; Milosevic, Jovan; Rekovic, Vladimir; Alcaraz Maestre, Juan; Calvo, Enrique; Cerrada, Marcos; Chamizo Llatas, Maria; Colino, Nicanor; De La Cruz, Begona; Delgado Peris, Antonio; Escalante Del Valle, Alberto; Fernandez Bedoya, Cristina; Fernández Ramos, Juan Pablo; Flix, Jose; Fouz, Maria Cruz; Garcia-Abia, Pablo; Gonzalez Lopez, Oscar; Goy Lopez, Silvia; Hernandez, Jose M; Josa, Maria Isabel; Navarro De Martino, Eduardo; Pérez-Calero Yzquierdo, Antonio María; Puerta Pelayo, Jesus; Quintario Olmeda, Adrián; Redondo, Ignacio; Romero, Luciano; Senghi Soares, Mara; de Trocóniz, Jorge F; Missiroli, Marino; Moran, Dermot; Cuevas, Javier; Fernandez Menendez, Javier; Folgueras, Santiago; Gonzalez Caballero, Isidro; Palencia Cortezon, Enrique; Vizan Garcia, Jesus Manuel; Cabrillo, Iban Jose; Calderon, Alicia; Castiñeiras De Saa, Juan Ramon; Curras, Esteban; Fernandez, Marcos; Garcia-Ferrero, Juan; Gomez, Gervasio; Lopez Virto, Amparo; Marco, Jesus; Marco, Rafael; Martinez Rivero, Celso; Matorras, Francisco; Piedra Gomez, Jonatan; Rodrigo, Teresa; Rodríguez-Marrero, Ana Yaiza; Ruiz-Jimeno, Alberto; Scodellaro, Luca; Trevisani, Nicolò; Vila, Ivan; Vilar Cortabitarte, Rocio; Abbaneo, Duccio; Auffray, Etiennette; Auzinger, Georg; Bachtis, Michail; Baillon, Paul; Ball, Austin; Barney, David; Benaglia, Andrea; Benhabib, Lamia; Berruti, Gaia Maria; Bloch, Philippe; Bocci, Andrea; Bonato, Alessio; Botta, Cristina; Breuker, Horst; Camporesi, Tiziano; Castello, Roberto; Cepeda, Maria; Cerminara, Gianluca; D'Alfonso, Mariarosaria; D'Enterria, David; Dabrowski, Anne; Daponte, Vincenzo; David Tinoco Mendes, Andre; De Gruttola, Michele; De Guio, Federico; De Roeck, Albert; Di Marco, Emanuele; Dobson, Marc; Dordevic, Milos; Dorney, Brian; Du Pree, Tristan; Duggan, Daniel; Dünser, Marc; Dupont, Niels; Elliott-Peisert, Anna; Fartoukh, Stephane; Franzoni, Giovanni; Fulcher, Jonathan; Funk, Wolfgang; Gigi, Dominique; Gill, Karl; Girone, Maria; Glege, Frank; Guida, Roberto; Gundacker, Stefan; Guthoff, Moritz; Hammer, Josef; Harris, Philip; Hegeman, Jeroen; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janot, Patrick; Kirschenmann, Henning; Knünz, Valentin; Kortelainen, Matti J; Kousouris, Konstantinos; Lecoq, Paul; Lourenco, Carlos; Lucchini, Marco Toliman; Magini, Nicolo; Malgeri, Luca; Mannelli, Marcello; Martelli, Arabella; Masetti, Lorenzo; Meijers, Frans; Mersi, Stefano; Meschi, Emilio; Moortgat, Filip; Morovic, Srecko; Mulders, Martijn; Neugebauer, Hannes; Orfanelli, Styliani; Orsini, Luciano; Pape, Luc; Perez, Emmanuelle; Peruzzi, Marco; Petrilli, Achille; Petrucciani, Giovanni; Pfeiffer, Andreas; Pierini, Maurizio; Piparo, Danilo; Racz, Attila; Reis, Thomas; Rolandi, Gigi; Rovere, Marco; Ruan, Manqi; Sakulin, Hannes; Sauvan, Jean-Baptiste; Schäfer, Christoph; Schwick, Christoph; Seidel, Markus; Sharma, Archana; Silva, Pedro; Simon, Michal; Sphicas, Paraskevas; Steggemann, Jan; Stoye, Markus; Takahashi, Yuta; Treille, Daniel; Triossi, Andrea; Tsirou, Andromachi; Veckalns, Viesturs; Veres, Gabor Istvan; Wardle, Nicholas; Wöhri, Hermine Katharina; Zagoździńska, Agnieszka; Zeuner, Wolfram Dietrich; Bertl, Willi; Deiters, Konrad; Erdmann, Wolfram; Horisberger, Roland; Ingram, Quentin; Kaestli, Hans-Christian; Kotlinski, Danek; Langenegger, Urs; Rohe, Tilman; Bachmair, Felix; Bäni, Lukas; Bianchini, Lorenzo; Casal, Bruno; Dissertori, Günther; Dittmar, Michael; Donegà, Mauro; Eller, Philipp; Grab, Christoph; Heidegger, Constantin; Hits, Dmitry; Hoss, Jan; Kasieczka, Gregor; Lecomte, Pierre; Lustermann, Werner; Mangano, Boris; Marionneau, Matthieu; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, Pablo; Masciovecchio, Mario; Meinhard, Maren Tabea; Meister, Daniel; Micheli, Francesco; Musella, Pasquale; Nessi-Tedaldi, Francesca; Pandolfi, Francesco; Pata, Joosep; Pauss, Felicitas; Perrin, Gaël; Perrozzi, Luca; Quittnat, Milena; Rossini, Marco; Schönenberger, Myriam; Starodumov, Andrei; Takahashi, Maiko; Tavolaro, Vittorio Raoul; Theofilatos, Konstantinos; Wallny, Rainer; Aarrestad, Thea Klaeboe; Amsler, Claude; Caminada, Lea; Canelli, Maria Florencia; Chiochia, Vincenzo; De Cosa, Annapaola; Galloni, Camilla; Hinzmann, Andreas; Hreus, Tomas; Kilminster, Benjamin; Lange, Clemens; Ngadiuba, Jennifer; Pinna, Deborah; Rauco, Giorgia; Robmann, Peter; Salerno, Daniel; Yang, Yong; Chen, Kuan-Hsin; Doan, Thi Hien; Jain, Shilpi; Khurana, Raman; Konyushikhin, Maxim; Kuo, Chia-Ming; Lin, Willis; Lu, Yun-Ju; Pozdnyakov, Andrey; Yu, Shin-Shan; Kumar, Arun; Chang, Paoti; Chang, You-Hao; Chang, Yu-Wei; Chao, Yuan; Chen, Kai-Feng; Chen, Po-Hsun; Dietz, Charles; Fiori, Francesco; Hou, George Wei-Shu; Hsiung, Yee; Liu, Yueh-Feng; Lu, Rong-Shyang; Miñano Moya, Mercedes; Tsai, Jui-fa; Tzeng, Yeng-Ming; Asavapibhop, Burin; Kovitanggoon, Kittikul; Singh, Gurpreet; Srimanobhas, Norraphat; Suwonjandee, Narumon; Adiguzel, Aytul; Bakirci, Mustafa Numan; Cerci, Salim; Damarseckin, Serdal; Demiroglu, Zuhal Seyma; Dozen, Candan; Dumanoglu, Isa; Eskut, Eda; Girgis, Semiray; Gokbulut, Gul; Guler, Yalcin; Gurpinar, Emine; Hos, Ilknur; Kangal, Evrim Ersin; Kayis Topaksu, Aysel; Onengut, Gulsen; Ozdemir, Kadri; Polatoz, Ayse; Zorbilmez, Caglar; Bilin, Bugra; Bilmis, Selcuk; Isildak, Bora; Karapinar, Guler; Yalvac, Metin; Zeyrek, Mehmet; Gülmez, Erhan; Kaya, Mithat; Kaya, Ozlem; Yetkin, Elif Asli; Yetkin, Taylan; Cakir, Altan; Cankocak, Kerem; Sen, Sercan; Grynyov, Boris; Levchuk, Leonid; Sorokin, Pavel; Aggleton, Robin; Ball, Fionn; Beck, Lana; Brooke, James John; Burns, Douglas; Clement, Emyr; Cussans, David; Flacher, Henning; Goldstein, Joel; Grimes, Mark; Heath, Greg P; Heath, Helen F; Jacob, Jeson; Kreczko, Lukasz; Lucas, Chris; Meng, Zhaoxia; Newbold, Dave M; Paramesvaran, Sudarshan; Poll, Anthony; Sakuma, Tai; Seif El Nasr-storey, Sarah; Senkin, Sergey; Smith, Dominic; Smith, Vincent J; Bell, Ken W; Belyaev, Alexander; Brew, Christopher; Brown, Robert M; Calligaris, Luigi; Cieri, Davide; Cockerill, David JA; Coughlan, John A; Harder, Kristian; Harper, Sam; Olaiya, Emmanuel; Petyt, David; Shepherd-Themistocleous, Claire; Thea, Alessandro; Tomalin, Ian R; Williams, Thomas; Worm, Steven; Baber, Mark; Bainbridge, Robert; Buchmuller, Oliver; Bundock, Aaron; Burton, Darren; Casasso, Stefano; Citron, Matthew; Colling, David; Corpe, Louie; Dauncey, Paul; Davies, Gavin; De Wit, Adinda; Della Negra, Michel; Dunne, Patrick; Elwood, Adam; Futyan, David; Haddad, Yacine; Hall, Geoffrey; Iles, Gregory; Lane, Rebecca; Lucas, Robyn; Lyons, Louis; Magnan, Anne-Marie; Malik, Sarah; Mastrolorenzo, Luca; Nash, Jordan; Nikitenko, Alexander; Pela, Joao; Penning, Bjoern; Pesaresi, Mark; Raymond, David Mark; Richards, Alexander; Rose, Andrew; Seez, Christopher; Tapper, Alexander; Uchida, Kirika; Vazquez Acosta, Monica; Virdee, Tejinder; Zenz, Seth Conrad; Cole, Joanne; Hobson, Peter R; Khan, Akram; Kyberd, Paul; Leslie, Dawn; Reid, Ivan; Symonds, Philip; Teodorescu, Liliana; Turner, Mark; Borzou, Ahmad; Call, Kenneth; Dittmann, Jay; Hatakeyama, Kenichi; Liu, Hongxuan; Pastika, Nathaniel; Charaf, Otman; Cooper, Seth; Henderson, Conor; Rumerio, Paolo; Arcaro, Daniel; Avetisyan, Aram; Bose, Tulika; Gastler, Daniel; Rankin, Dylan; Richardson, Clint; Rohlf, James; Sulak, Lawrence; Zou, David; Alimena, Juliette; Benelli, Gabriele; Berry, Edmund; Cutts, David; Ferapontov, Alexey; Garabedian, Alex; Hakala, John; Heintz, Ulrich; Jesus, Orduna; Laird, Edward; Landsberg, Greg; Mao, Zaixing; Narain, Meenakshi; Piperov, Stefan; Sagir, Sinan; Syarif, Rizki; Breedon, Richard; Breto, Guillermo; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, Manuel; Chauhan, Sushil; Chertok, Maxwell; Conway, John; Conway, Rylan; Cox, Peter Timothy; Erbacher, Robin; Flores, Chad; Funk, Garrett; Gardner, Michael; Ko, Winston; Lander, Richard; Mclean, Christine; Mulhearn, Michael; Pellett, Dave; Pilot, Justin; Ricci-Tam, Francesca; Shalhout, Shalhout; Smith, John; Squires, Michael; Stolp, Dustin; Tripathi, Mani; Wilbur, Scott; Yohay, Rachel; Cousins, Robert; Everaerts, Pieter; Florent, Alice; Hauser, Jay; Ignatenko, Mikhail; Saltzberg, David; Takasugi, Eric; Valuev, Vyacheslav; Weber, Matthias; Burt, Kira; Clare, Robert; Ellison, John Anthony; Gary, J William; Hanson, Gail; Heilman, Jesse; Jandir, Pawandeep; Kennedy, Elizabeth; Lacroix, Florent; Long, Owen Rosser; Malberti, Martina; Olmedo Negrete, Manuel; Paneva, Mirena Ivova; Shrinivas, Amithabh; Wei, Hua; Wimpenny, Stephen; Yates, Brent; Branson, James G; Cerati, Giuseppe Benedetto; Cittolin, Sergio; D'Agnolo, Raffaele Tito; Derdzinski, Mark; Gerosa, Raffaele; Holzner, André; Kelley, Ryan; Klein, Daniel; Letts, James; Macneill, Ian; Olivito, Dominick; Padhi, Sanjay; Pieri, Marco; Sani, Matteo; Sharma, Vivek; Simon, Sean; Tadel, Matevz; Vartak, Adish; Wasserbaech, Steven; Welke, Charles; Wood, John; Würthwein, Frank; Yagil, Avraham; Zevi Della Porta, Giovanni; Bradmiller-Feld, John; Campagnari, Claudio; Dishaw, Adam; Dutta, Valentina; Flowers, Kristen; Franco Sevilla, Manuel; Geffert, Paul; George, Christopher; Golf, Frank; Gouskos, Loukas; Gran, Jason; Incandela, Joe; Mccoll, Nickolas; Mullin, Sam Daniel; Richman, Jeffrey; Stuart, David; Suarez, Indara; West, Christopher; Yoo, Jaehyeok; Anderson, Dustin; Apresyan, Artur; Bendavid, Joshua; Bornheim, Adolf; Bunn, Julian; Chen, Yi; Duarte, Javier; Mott, Alexander; Newman, Harvey B; Pena, Cristian; Spiropulu, Maria; Vlimant, Jean-Roch; Xie, Si; Zhu, Ren-Yuan; Andrews, Michael Benjamin; Azzolini, Virginia; Calamba, Aristotle; Carlson, Benjamin; Ferguson, Thomas; Paulini, Manfred; Russ, James; Sun, Menglei; Vogel, Helmut; Vorobiev, Igor; Cumalat, John Perry; Ford, William T; Jensen, Frank; Johnson, Andrew; Krohn, Michael; Mulholland, Troy; Stenson, Kevin; Wagner, Stephen Robert; Alexander, James; Chatterjee, Avishek; Chaves, Jorge; Chu, Jennifer; Dittmer, Susan; Eggert, Nicholas; Mirman, Nathan; Nicolas Kaufman, Gala; Patterson, Juliet Ritchie; Rinkevicius, Aurelijus; Ryd, Anders; Skinnari, Louise; Soffi, Livia; Sun, Werner; Tan, Shao Min; Teo, Wee Don; Thom, Julia; Thompson, Joshua; Tucker, Jordan; Weng, Yao; Wittich, Peter; Abdullin, Salavat; Albrow, Michael; Apollinari, Giorgio; Banerjee, Sunanda; Bauerdick, Lothar AT; Beretvas, Andrew; Berryhill, Jeffrey; Bhat, Pushpalatha C; Bolla, Gino; Burkett, Kevin; Butler, Joel Nathan; Cheung, Harry; Chlebana, Frank; Cihangir, Selcuk; Cremonesi, Matteo; Elvira, Victor Daniel; Fisk, Ian; Freeman, Jim; Gottschalk, Erik; Gray, Lindsey; Green, Dan; Grünendahl, Stefan; Gutsche, Oliver; Hare, Daryl; Harris, Robert M; Hasegawa, Satoshi; Hirschauer, James; Hu, Zhen; Jayatilaka, Bodhitha; Jindariani, Sergo; Johnson, Marvin; Joshi, Umesh; Klima, Boaz; Kreis, Benjamin; Lammel, Stephan; Lewis, Jonathan; Linacre, Jacob; Lincoln, Don; Lipton, Ron; Liu, Tiehui; Lopes De Sá, Rafael; Lykken, Joseph; Maeshima, Kaori; Marraffino, John Michael; Maruyama, Sho; Mason, David; McBride, Patricia; Merkel, Petra; Mrenna, Stephen; Nahn, Steve; Newman-Holmes, Catherine; O'Dell, Vivian; Pedro, Kevin; Prokofyev, Oleg; Rakness, Gregory; Sexton-Kennedy, Elizabeth; Soha, Aron; Spalding, William J; Spiegel, Leonard; Stoynev, Stoyan; Strobbe, Nadja; Taylor, Lucas; Tkaczyk, Slawek; Tran, Nhan Viet; Uplegger, Lorenzo; Vaandering, Eric Wayne; Vernieri, Caterina; Verzocchi, Marco; Vidal, Richard; Wang, Michael; Weber, Hannsjoerg Artur; Whitbeck, Andrew; Acosta, Darin; Avery, Paul; Bortignon, Pierluigi; Bourilkov, Dimitri; Brinkerhoff, Andrew; Carnes, Andrew; Carver, Matthew; Curry, David; Das, Souvik; Field, Richard D; Furic, Ivan-Kresimir; Konigsberg, Jacobo; Korytov, Andrey; Kotov, Khristian; Ma, Peisen; Matchev, Konstantin; Mei, Hualin; Milenovic, Predrag; Mitselmakher, Guenakh; Rank, Douglas; Rossin, Roberto; Shchutska, Lesya; Sperka, David; Terentyev, Nikolay; Thomas, Laurent; Wang, Jian; Wang, Sean-Jiun; Yelton, John; Linn, Stephan; Markowitz, Pete; Martinez, German; Rodriguez, Jorge Luis; Ackert, Andrew; Adams, Jordon Rowe; Adams, Todd; Askew, Andrew; Bein, Samuel; Bochenek, Joseph; Diamond, Brendan; Haas, Jeff; Hagopian, Sharon; Hagopian, Vasken; Johnson, Kurtis F; Khatiwada, Ajeeta; Prosper, Harrison; Santra, Arka; Weinberg, Marc; Baarmand, Marc M; Bhopatkar, Vallary; Colafranceschi, Stefano; Hohlmann, Marcus; Kalakhety, Himali; Noonan, Daniel; Roy, Titas; Yumiceva, Francisco; Adams, Mark Raymond; Apanasevich, Leonard; Berry, Douglas; Betts, Russell Richard; Bucinskaite, Inga; Cavanaugh, Richard; Evdokimov, Olga; Gauthier, Lucie; Gerber, Cecilia Elena; Hofman, David Jonathan; Kurt, Pelin; O'Brien, Christine; Sandoval Gonzalez, Irving Daniel; Turner, Paul; Varelas, Nikos; Wu, Zhenbin; Zakaria, Mohammed; Zhang, Jingyu; Bilki, Burak; Clarida, Warren; Dilsiz, Kamuran; Durgut, Süleyman; Gandrajula, Reddy Pratap; Haytmyradov, Maksat; Khristenko, Viktor; Merlo, Jean-Pierre; Mermerkaya, Hamit; Mestvirishvili, Alexi; Moeller, Anthony; Nachtman, Jane; Ogul, Hasan; Onel, Yasar; Ozok, Ferhat; Penzo, Aldo; Snyder, Christina; Tiras, Emrah; Wetzel, James; Yi, Kai; Anderson, Ian; Blumenfeld, Barry; Cocoros, Alice; Eminizer, Nicholas; Fehling, David; Feng, Lei; Gritsan, Andrei; Maksimovic, Petar; Osherson, Marc; Roskes, Jeffrey; Sarica, Ulascan; Swartz, Morris; Xiao, Meng; Xin, Yongjie; You, Can; Baringer, Philip; Bean, Alice; Bruner, Christopher; Castle, James; Kenny III, Raymond Patrick; Kropivnitskaya, Anna; Majumder, Devdatta; Malek, Magdalena; Mcbrayer, William; Murray, Michael; Sanders, Stephen; Stringer, Robert; Wang, Quan; Ivanov, Andrew; Kaadze, Ketino; Khalil, Sadia; Makouski, Mikhail; Maravin, Yurii; Mohammadi, Abdollah; Saini, Lovedeep Kaur; Skhirtladze, Nikoloz; Toda, Sachiko; Lange, David; Rebassoo, Finn; Wright, Douglas; Anelli, Christopher; Baden, Drew; Baron, Owen; Belloni, Alberto; Calvert, Brian; Eno, Sarah Catherine; Ferraioli, Charles; Gomez, Jaime; Hadley, Nicholas John; Jabeen, Shabnam; Kellogg, Richard G; Kolberg, Ted; Kunkle, Joshua; Lu, Ying; Mignerey, Alice; Shin, Young Ho; Skuja, Andris; Tonjes, Marguerite; Tonwar, Suresh C; Apyan, Aram; Barbieri, Richard; Baty, Austin; Bi, Ran; Bierwagen, Katharina; Brandt, Stephanie; Busza, Wit; Cali, Ivan Amos; Demiragli, Zeynep; Di Matteo, Leonardo; Gomez Ceballos, Guillelmo; Goncharov, Maxim; Gulhan, Doga; Hsu, Dylan; Iiyama, Yutaro; Innocenti, Gian Michele; Klute, Markus; Kovalskyi, Dmytro; Krajczar, Krisztian; Lai, Yue Shi; Lee, Yen-Jie; Levin, Andrew; Luckey, Paul David; Marini, Andrea Carlo; Mcginn, Christopher; Mironov, Camelia; Narayanan, Siddharth; Niu, Xinmei; Paus, Christoph; Roland, Christof; Roland, Gunther; Salfeld-Nebgen, Jakob; Stephans, George; Sumorok, Konstanty; Tatar, Kaya; Varma, Mukund; Velicanu, Dragos; Veverka, Jan; Wang, Jing; Wang, Ta-Wei; Wyslouch, Bolek; Yang, Mingming; Zhukova, Victoria; Benvenuti, Alberto; Dahmes, Bryan; Evans, Andrew; Finkel, Alexey; Gude, Alexander; Hansen, Peter; Kalafut, Sean; Kao, Shih-Chuan; Klapoetke, Kevin; Kubota, Yuichi; Lesko, Zachary; Mans, Jeremy; Nourbakhsh, Shervin; Ruckstuhl, Nicole; Rusack, Roger; Tambe, Norbert; Turkewitz, Jared; Acosta, John Gabriel; Oliveros, Sandra; Avdeeva, Ekaterina; Bartek, Rachel; Bloom, Kenneth; Bose, Suvadeep; Claes, Daniel R; Dominguez, Aaron; Fangmeier, Caleb; Gonzalez Suarez, Rebeca; Kamalieddin, Rami; Knowlton, Dan; Kravchenko, Ilya; Meier, Frank; Monroy, Jose; Ratnikov, Fedor; Siado, Joaquin Emilo; Snow, Gregory R; Stieger, Benjamin; Alyari, Maral; Dolen, James; George, Jimin; Godshalk, Andrew; Harrington, Charles; Iashvili, Ia; Kaisen, Josh; Kharchilava, Avto; Kumar, Ashish; Parker, Ashley; Rappoccio, Salvatore; Roozbahani, Bahareh; Alverson, George; Barberis, Emanuela; Baumgartel, Darin; Chasco, Matthew; Hortiangtham, Apichart; Massironi, Andrea; Morse, David Michael; Nash, David; Orimoto, Toyoko; Teixeira De Lima, Rafael; Trocino, Daniele; Wang, Ren-Jie; Wood, Darien; Zhang, Jinzhong; Bhattacharya, Saptaparna; Hahn, Kristan Allan; Kubik, Andrew; Low, Jia Fu; Mucia, Nicholas; Odell, Nathaniel; Pollack, Brian; Schmitt, Michael Henry; Sung, Kevin; Trovato, Marco; Velasco, Mayda; Dev, Nabarun; Hildreth, Michael; Jessop, Colin; Karmgard, Daniel John; Kellams, Nathan; Lannon, Kevin; Marinelli, Nancy; Meng, Fanbo; Mueller, Charles; Musienko, Yuri; Planer, Michael; Reinsvold, Allison; Ruchti, Randy; Rupprecht, Nathaniel; Smith, Geoffrey; Taroni, Silvia; Valls, Nil; Wayne, Mitchell; Wolf, Matthias; Woodard, Anna; Antonelli, Louis; Brinson, Jessica; Bylsma, Ben; Durkin, Lloyd Stanley; Flowers, Sean; Hart, Andrew; Hill, Christopher; Hughes, Richard; Ji, Weifeng; Liu, Bingxuan; Luo, Wuming; Puigh, Darren; Rodenburg, Marissa; Winer, Brian L; Wulsin, Howard Wells; Driga, Olga; Elmer, Peter; Hardenbrook, Joshua; Hebda, Philip; Koay, Sue Ann; Lujan, Paul; Marlow, Daniel; Medvedeva, Tatiana; Mooney, Michael; Olsen, James; Palmer, Christopher; Piroué, Pierre; Stickland, David; Tully, Christopher; Zuranski, Andrzej; Malik, Sudhir; Barker, Anthony; Barnes, Virgil E; Benedetti, Daniele; Gutay, Laszlo; Jha, Manoj; Jones, Matthew; Jung, Andreas Werner; Jung, Kurt; Miller, David Harry; Neumeister, Norbert; Radburn-Smith, Benjamin Charles; Shi, Xin; Sun, Jian; Svyatkovskiy, Alexey; Wang, Fuqiang; Xie, Wei; Xu, Lingshan; Parashar, Neeti; Stupak, John; Adair, Antony; Akgun, Bora; Chen, Zhenyu; Ecklund, Karl Matthew; Geurts, Frank JM; Guilbaud, Maxime; Li, Wei; Michlin, Benjamin; Northup, Michael; Padley, Brian Paul; Redjimi, Radia; Roberts, Jay; Rorie, Jamal; Tu, Zhoudunming; Zabel, James; Betchart, Burton; Bodek, Arie; de Barbaro, Pawel; Demina, Regina; Duh, Yi-ting; Eshaq, Yossof; Ferbel, Thomas; Galanti, Mario; Garcia-Bellido, Aran; Han, Jiyeon; Hindrichs, Otto; Khukhunaishvili, Aleko; Lo, Kin Ho; Tan, Ping; Verzetti, Mauro; Chou, John Paul; Contreras-Campana, Emmanuel; Gershtein, Yuri; Gómez Espinosa, Tirso Alejandro; Halkiadakis, Eva; Heindl, Maximilian; Hidas, Dean; Hughes, Elliot; Kaplan, Steven; Kunnawalkam Elayavalli, Raghav; Kyriacou, Savvas; Lath, Amitabh; Nash, Kevin; Saka, Halil; Salur, Sevil; Schnetzer, Steve; Sheffield, David; Somalwar, Sunil; Stone, Robert; Thomas, Scott; Thomassen, Peter; Walker, Matthew; Foerster, Mark; Heideman, Joseph; Riley, Grant; Rose, Keith; Spanier, Stefan; Thapa, Krishna; Bouhali, Othmane; Castaneda Hernandez, Alfredo; Celik, Ali; Dalchenko, Mykhailo; De Mattia, Marco; Delgado, Andrea; Dildick, Sven; Eusebi, Ricardo; Gilmore, Jason; Huang, Tao; Kamon, Teruki; Krutelyov, Vyacheslav; Mueller, Ryan; Osipenkov, Ilya; Pakhotin, Yuriy; Patel, Rishi; Perloff, Alexx; Perniè, Luca; Rathjens, Denis; Rose, Anthony; Safonov, Alexei; Tatarinov, Aysen; Ulmer, Keith; Akchurin, Nural; Cowden, Christopher; Damgov, Jordan; Dragoiu, Cosmin; Dudero, Phillip Russell; Faulkner, James; Kunori, Shuichi; Lamichhane, Kamal; Lee, Sung Won; Libeiro, Terence; Undleeb, Sonaina; Volobouev, Igor; Wang, Zhixing; Appelt, Eric; Delannoy, Andrés G; Greene, Senta; Gurrola, Alfredo; Janjam, Ravi; Johns, Willard; Maguire, Charles; Mao, Yaxian; Melo, Andrew; Ni, Hong; Sheldon, Paul; Tuo, Shengquan; Velkovska, Julia; Xu, Qiao; Arenton, Michael Wayne; Barria, Patrizia; Cox, Bradley; Francis, Brian; Goodell, Joseph; Hirosky, Robert; Ledovskoy, Alexander; Li, Hengne; Neu, Christopher; Sinthuprasith, Tutanon; Sun, Xin; Wang, Yanchu; Wolfe, Evan; Xia, Fan; Clarke, Christopher; Harr, Robert; Karchin, Paul Edmund; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, Chamath; Lamichhane, Pramod; Sturdy, Jared; Belknap, Donald; Carlsmith, Duncan; Dasu, Sridhara; Dodd, Laura; Duric, Senka; Gomber, Bhawna; Grothe, Monika; Herndon, Matthew; Hervé, Alain; Klabbers, Pamela; Lanaro, Armando; Levine, Aaron; Long, Kenneth; Loveless, Richard; Mohapatra, Ajit; Ojalvo, Isabel; Perry, Thomas; Pierro, Giuseppe Antonio; Polese, Giovanni; Ruggles, Tyler; Sarangi, Tapas; Savin, Alexander; Sharma, Archana; Smith, Nicholas; Smith, Wesley H; Taylor, Devin; Verwilligen, Piet; Woods, Nathaniel

    2017-04-10

    An inclusive search is performed for supersymmetry in final states containing jets and an apparent imbalance in transverse momentum, $ \\vec{p}_{\\mathrm{T}}^{\\text{miss}} $, due to the production of unobserved weakly interacting particles in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The data, recorded with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC, correspond to an integrated luminosity of 18.5 fb$^{-1}$. The dimensionless kinematic variable ${\\alpha_\\mathrm{T}}$ is used to discriminate between events with genuine $ \\vec{p}_{\\mathrm{T}}^{\\text{miss}} $ associated with unobserved particles and spurious values of $ \\vec{p}_{\\mathrm{T}}^{\\text{miss}} $ arising from jet energy mismeasurements. No excess of event yields above the expected standard model backgrounds is observed. The results are interpreted in terms of constraints on the parameter space of several simplified models of supersymmetry that assume the pair production of top squarks. The search provides sensitivity to a broad range of top squark ($\\tilde{...

  14. Realistic Planning Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-07-01

    independent multiracial government, dominated primarily by the Zulu tribe and the local Asian population, had been proclaimed and aspired to control all of the...concentrated most of South Africa’s - remaining English-speaking population, and by the reigning Chief of the Zulu tribe , speaking for the self-styled...Africa. Facilities in one or more northern African countries-- Morocco, Egypt, Sudan, Kenya, Somalia--could be critical to U.S. military actions in the

  15. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  16. Quantifying the Relative Contributions of Forest Change and Climatic Variability to Hydrology in Large Watersheds: A Critical Review of Research Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohua Wei

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Forest change and climatic variability are two major drivers for influencing change in watershed hydrology in forest–dominated watersheds. Quantifying their relative contributions is important to fully understand their individual effects. This review paper summarizes the progress on quantifying the relative contributions of forest or land cover change and climatic variability to hydrology in large watersheds using available case studies. It compared pros and cons of various research methods, identified research challenges and proposed future research priorities. Our synthesis shows that the relative hydrological effects of forest changes and climatic variability are largely dependent on their own change magnitudes and watershed characteristics. In some severely disturbed watersheds, impacts of forest changes or land use changes can be as important as those from climatic variability. This paper provides a brief review on eight selected research methods for this type of research. Because each method or technique has its own strengths and weaknesses, combining two or more methods is a more robust approach than using any single method alone. Future research priorities include conducting more case studies, refining research methods, and considering mechanism-based research using landscape ecology and geochemistry approaches.

  17. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  18. EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

  19. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  20. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    reliance on road transportation, centralized power systems, etc. It is no surprise that with such an assumption, the absolute decoupling of growth and CO 2 emissions demands a rapidly increasing value of carbon in the economy. After many fruitful discussions between industry representatives and researchers, these scenarios have been corrected and finalized in September 2007. A brief explanation of the adjustments introduced is included in the report. The second part of the report was written in September 2008. After the first two scenarios, it was agreed to investigate the simulation of a 'non-mimetic' scenario, which would take into consideration significant shifts or mutations in the development styles and in land planning.. In this scenario, the two models involved have been forced by exogenous assumptions on development bifurcations made by ENERDATA. Discussions within the steering committee made clear that two assumptions were critical to the plausibility of the two mitigation scenarios: (i) Timely acceptance and massive deployment of certain technologies such as carbon capture and storage and nuclear power; (ii) No-delay adoption of ambitious climate policies by all emerging and developing countries (before 2020). In order to challenge these two assumptions, two additional sensitivity scenarios were produced: the first one built on the assumption that carbon capture and storage would not be available before 2030, the second delaying the efforts of non-Annex B countries to 2025. (authors)

  1. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  2. Acute Mental Discomfort Associated with Suicide Behavior in a Clinical Sample of Patients with Affective Disorders: Ascertaining Critical Variables Using Artificial Intelligence Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Susana; Barros, Jorge; Echávarri, Orietta; García, Fabián; Osses, Alex; Moya, Claudia; Maino, María Paz; Fischman, Ronit; Núñez, Catalina; Szmulewicz, Tita; Tomicic, Alemka

    2017-01-01

    In efforts to develop reliable methods to detect the likelihood of impending suicidal behaviors, we have proposed the following. To gain a deeper understanding of the state of suicide risk by determining the combination of variables that distinguishes between groups with and without suicide risk. A study involving 707 patients consulting for mental health issues in three health centers in Greater Santiago, Chile. Using 345 variables, an analysis was carried out with artificial intelligence tools, Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining processes, and decision tree techniques. The basic algorithm was top-down, and the most suitable division produced by the tree was selected by using the lowest Gini index as a criterion and by looping it until the condition of belonging to the group with suicidal behavior was fulfilled. Four trees distinguishing the groups were obtained, of which the elements of one were analyzed in greater detail, since this tree included both clinical and personality variables. This specific tree consists of six nodes without suicide risk and eight nodes with suicide risk (tree decision 01, accuracy 0.674, precision 0.652, recall 0.678, specificity 0.670, F measure 0.665, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) 73.35%; tree decision 02, accuracy 0.669, precision 0.642, recall 0.694, specificity 0.647, F measure 0.667, ROC AUC 68.91%; tree decision 03, accuracy 0.681, precision 0.675, recall 0.638, specificity 0.721, F measure, 0.656, ROC AUC 65.86%; tree decision 04, accuracy 0.714, precision 0.734, recall 0.628, specificity 0.792, F measure 0.677, ROC AUC 58.85%). This study defines the interactions among a group of variables associated with suicidal ideation and behavior. By using these variables, it may be possible to create a quick and easy-to-use tool. As such, psychotherapeutic interventions could be designed to mitigate the impact of these variables on the emotional state of individuals, thereby reducing

  3. The changing nutrition scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  4. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  5. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  6. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  7. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  8. How does variability in input load relate to the probability of critically delayed delivery in a simple Multipart Re-entrant Flow-line problem?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    2003-01-01

    of the estimation of the probability of critically delayed delivery beyond a specified threshold value given a certain production batch size and try to establish a relation to certain parameters that can be linked to the degree of regularity of the arrival stream of parts to the job/flow-shop. This last aspect...... relates remotely to the Lean Thinking philosophy that praises the smooth and uninterrupted production flow to be beneficial to the overall operation of productive plants in general, and we will link our findings to this discussion as well....

  9. Minimality of critical scenarios with linear logic and cutsets

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DK

    establish the causality between undesirable events and normal operations. The proof trees of ... MS (both continuous and discrete features) leads us to choose a ...... Modeling and simulation of hybrid system through. Differential Predicate ...

  10. CriticalEd

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjellberg, Caspar Mølholt; Meredith, David

    2014-01-01

    . Since the comments are not input sequentially, with regard to position, but in arbitrary order, this list must be sorted by copy/pasting the rows into place—an error-prone and time-consuming process. Scholars who produce critical editions typically use off-the-shelf music notation software......The best text method is commonly applied among music scholars engaged in producing critical editions. In this method, a comment list is compiled, consisting of variant readings and editorial emendations. This list is maintained by inserting the comments into a document as the changes are made......, consisting of a Sibelius plug-in, a cross-platform application, called CriticalEd, and a REST-based solution, which handles data storage/retrieval. A prototype has been tested at the Danish Centre for Music Publication, and the results suggest that the system could greatly improve the efficiency...

  11. Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

    2016-06-01

    The stakes of embarking upon a Mediterranean Energy Transition is essential for countries from both shores of the Mediterranean, especially taking into account the increasing demographics (+105 million by 2040) and the fast growing energy demand in an increasingly constrained context both in terms of energy availability and environmental impacts of conventional energy sources uses. There is a huge, but yet untapped, potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially in the South Mediterranean region. By improving energy efficiency and deploying renewables on a large scale, the Mediterranean region would reduce tensions on energy security for importing countries, improve opportunities for exporting ones and reduce energy costs and environmental damages for the whole region. Embarking on an energy transition path will also help improve social welfare in the region and contribute to job creation, among other positive externalities. OME regularly conducts prospective works to 2040, assessing the impact of prolonging current energy trends. Under this Business-As-Usual or so-called 'Conservative' Scenario the situation would evolve critically on all counts over the next 25 years: doubling of energy demand and tripling of electricity consumption, soaring infrastructure and import bills (+443 GW to be installed and doubling of the fossil-fuel imports) and a critical rise in carbon emissions (+45%). Such a scenario, based essentially on fossil fuels, would put further strain on the environment and exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region. A change of energy trajectory is therefore necessary for all Mediterranean countries to help change current trends and to increase efforts promoting energy efficiency and renewable energies. In this context, MEDENER and OME, based on the 2030-2050 visions of ADEME and the prospective tools of OME, have decided to jointly investigate a Mediterranean Energy Transition Scenario, an ambitious scenario that

  12. Scenarios for waste management involving innovative systems (ADS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tommasi, J.; Bottollier-Curtet, H.; Massara, S.; Varaine, F.; Delpech, M.

    2001-01-01

    The global performance of reactor park scenarios based on innovative systems (Accelerator-Driven Systems, ADS) for transmutation is studied, based either on equilibrium recycling states or on high burn-up systems. The results of these first studies are preliminary but allow to assess the main parameters of the fuel cycle (inventories, mass balances, mass flows...), to evaluate the specific contributions of ADS on the main scenario parameters, and to compare subcritical systems to critical ones. (author)

  13. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  14. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  15. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  16. Four Scenarios of Malaysia-Indonesia Migration: From the Status Quo to the Wild Card Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Ladiqi, Suyatno; Bustami, Reevany; Nasruddin, Ellisha

    2017-01-01

    In the context of ASEAN, the number of migrants from Indonesia and Malaysia is the largest. Combining the regular and the irregular migrants, the estimates range from 1.8 million to 3 million people. It is incontrovertible that movement of such magnitude has its impacts, probably both positive and negative. This article aims at providing an analysis based on future scenarios. The purpose is not to make predictions but rather to chart possible paths of critical events that would lead to differ...

  17. 3 Investment Scenarios for Fast Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoai Tehrani, Bianka; Da Costa, Pascal

    2013-01-01

    Results: • 4 families of scenarios: – In each of them, 3 options for national nuclear policy → 12 scenarios; – 3 favorable to FRs: - “climate constraint” with strong pro-nuclear policy - “climate constraint” with moderate pro-nuclear policy - “totally green” with strong pro-nuclear policy. • Business As Usual is not favorable to Fast Reactors; Fast reactors deployment: - Needs strong climate policy - Is viable in case of important renewable progress as long as climate policy is strong. International perspective: • Results are valid for Europe, other drivers being likely to be more important in other countries : high growth and demand (Asia); • With strong contrasts between European countries. Further research: • Finer modeling of drivers with unclear influence (clustered and excluded variables): Influence of weak signals

  18. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  19. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  20. Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradley J Tomasek

    Full Text Available As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2 down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

  1. Global scenarios and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The 21st century brings with it a number of disturbing challenges. They may even threaten to disrupt world order. Many agree the most critical and urgent challenge of all confronting human kind today is climate change. Global warming has reached a level which can trigger drastic shifts in world weather. There is convincing evidence to show that global warming is significantly attributed to mans own activities. If man is responsible for the warming of the planet, then only man can help stop global warming. Only man can reverse climate change. Climate change has the power to literally destruct the world. The adverse effects of global climate change are increasingly evident from the frequency and ferocity of natural disasters like the recent severe drought and flood in Queensland, Australia; the prolonged drought in East Africa; the destructive typhoon Nargis in Myanmar; the terrifying hurricane Katrina which brought New Orleans to its knees; the disastrous Mississippi flood and killer cyclones in USA and the out of season drought and flood in the Yangtze river basin. The list does not end there. Dr. R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in his lecture on 28 April 2011 at UNITEN, entitled Fukushima, Energy and Climate Change reaffirmed that the warming of the earths climate system is unequivocal. That climate change is mans common enemy is no longer in doubt. This is the reason why many see climate change as the single most important driver of the expanding global interest in green technology and a low carbon economy. (author)

  2. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-12

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  3. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  4. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  5. Comment on 'Density perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Jerome; Peter, Patrick; Pinto-Neto, Nelson; Schwarz, Dominik J.

    2003-01-01

    In the paper by J. Khoury et al., Phys. Rev. D 66, 046005 (2002), it is argued that the expected spectrum of primordial perturbations should be scale invariant in this scenario. Here we show that, contrary to what is claimed in that paper, the expected spectrum depends on an arbitrary choice of matching variable. As no underlying (microphysical) principle exists at the present time that could lift the arbitrariness, we conclude that the ekpyrotic scenario is not yet a predictive model

  6. Analysis of air mass trajectories to explain observed variability of tritium in precipitation at the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory, California, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, Ate; Thaw, Melissa; Esser, Brad

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the behavior of tritium, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen, in the environment is important to evaluate the exposure risk of anthropogenic releases, and for its application as a tracer in hydrology and oceanography. To understand and predict the variability of tritium in precipitation, HYSPLIT air mass trajectories were analyzed for 16 aggregate precipitation samples collected over a 2 year period at irregular intervals at a research site located at 2000 m elevation in the southern Sierra Nevada (California, USA). Attributing the variation in tritium to specific source areas confirms the hypothesis that higher latitude or inland sources bring higher tritium levels in precipitation than precipitation originating in the lower latitude Pacific Ocean. In this case, the source of precipitation accounts for 79% of the variation observed in tritium concentrations. Air mass trajectory analysis is a promising tool to improve the predictions of tritium in precipitation at unmonitored locations and thoroughly understand the processes controlling transport of tritium in the environment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

  8. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghanem, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  9. Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    C. E. Kessel, D. Campbell, Y. Gribov, G. Saibene, G. Ambrosino, T. Casper, M. Cavinato, H. Fujieda, R. Hawryluk, L. D. Horton, A. Kavin, R. Kharyrutdinov, F. Koechl, J. Leuer, A. Loarte, P. J. Lomas, T. Luce, V. Lukash, M. Mattei, I.Nunes, V. Parail, A. Polevoi, A. Portone, R. Sartori, A.C.C. Sips, P. R. Thomas, A. Welander and J. Wesley

    2008-01-01

    The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation

  10. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  11. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  12. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  13. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  14. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus Vera-Aguilera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

  15. Scenarios for remote gas production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  16. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  17. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

    1990-01-01

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, the authors discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 (Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises) using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

  18. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

    1991-01-01

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Even tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, we discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

  19. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  20. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mazzorana

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  1. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  2. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  3. Interoperability challenges in river discharge modelling: A cross domain application scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Mattia; Andres, Volker; Jirka, Simon; Koike, Toshio; Looser, Ulrich; Nativi, Stefano; Pappenberger, Florian; Schlummer, Manuela; Strauch, Adrian; Utech, Michael; Zsoter, Ervin

    2018-06-01

    River discharge is a critical water cycle variable, as it integrates all the processes (e.g. runoff and evapotranspiration) occurring within a river basin and provides a hydrological output variable that can be readily measured. Its prediction is of invaluable help for many water-related tasks including water resources assessment and management, flood protection, and disaster mitigation. Observations of river discharge are important to calibrate and validate hydrological or coupled land, atmosphere and ocean models. This requires using datasets from different scientific domains (Water, Weather, etc.). Typically, such datasets are provided using different technological solutions. This complicates the integration of new hydrological data sources into application systems. Therefore, a considerable effort is often spent on data access issues instead of the actual scientific question. This paper describes the work performed to address multidisciplinary interoperability challenges related to river discharge modeling and validation. This includes definition and standardization of domain specific interoperability standards for hydrological data sharing and their support in global frameworks such as the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). The research was developed in the context of the EU FP7-funded project GEOWOW (GEOSS Interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water), which implemented a "River Discharge" application scenario. This scenario demonstrates the combination of river discharge observations data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) database and model outputs produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicting river discharge based on weather forecast information in the context of the GEOSS.

  4. Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Braun, Kimberly

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

  5. Exercise electrocardiographic variables: a critical appraisal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Detrano, R.; Salcedo, E.; Passalacqua, M.; Friis, R.

    1986-01-01

    To compare four recently proposed methods of analyzing the exercise electrocardiogram with the conventional analysis of ST segment depression, 303 consecutive patients without myocardial infarction who had been referred for coronary arteriography underwent stress electrocardiography and stress thallium imaging. The specificity for the prediction of a greater than 50% coronary obstruction of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 mm ST segment depression measured in the conventional way was 0.59, 0.73, 0.88 and 0.94, respectively. The specificity of a thallium perfusion defect was 0.79. Sensitivities of the conventional ST depressions, thallium defect, the change in the sum of the R amplitudes and the slope adjusted for heart rate increase were calculated and compared at the cited levels of specificity. R wave changes had a significantly lower sensitivity than did the conventionally analyzed ST depression at each level of specificity. Slope-adjusted ST depression had a slightly higher sensitivity than that of conventional ST depression only at a specificity of 0.73 (0.68 versus 0.65, p = 0.07). R wave-adjusted ST depression was significantly more sensitive than conventional ST depression only at a specificity of 0.94 (0.45 versus 0.36, p = 0.01). Heart rate-adjusted ST depression was more sensitive than conventional ST depression at all of the specificities except 0.59. This pattern of superior accuracy of heart rate-adjusted ST depressions was preserved for the prediction of multivessel coronary disease. Heart rate adjustment is a simpler and more accurate modification of the conventional electrocardiographic analysis than are the other three methods studied

  6. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  7. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  8. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosa, IMD

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available & Evolution, vol. 1: 1416-1419 Multiscale scenarios for nature futures Rosa IMD Pereira HM Ferrier S Alkemade R Acosta LA Akcakaya HR den Belder E Fazel AM Fujimori S Sitas NE ABSTRACT: Targets for human development are increasingly...

  9. Hydrogen energy network start-up scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weingartner, S.; Ellerbrock, H.

    1994-01-01

    Hydrogen is widely discussed as future fuel and energy storage medium either to replace conventional fuels for automobiles, aircrafts and ships or to avoid the necessity of bulky battery systems for electricity storage, especially in connection with solar power systems. These discussions however started more than 25 years ago and up to now hydrogen has failed to achieve a major break-through towards wider application as energy storage medium in civil markets. The main reason is that other fuels are cheaper and very well implemented in our daily life. A study has been performed at Deutsche Aerospace in order to evaluate the boundary conditions, either political or economical, which would give hydrogen the necessary push, i.e. advantage over conventional fuels. The main goal of this study was to identify critical influence factors and specific start-up scenarios which would allow an economical and practically realistic use of hydrogen as fuel and energy medium in certain niche markets outside the space industry. Method and major results of this study are presented in detail in the paper. Certain niche markets could be identified, where with little initial governmental support, either by funding, tax laws or legislation, hydrogen can compete with conventional fuels. This however requires a scenario where a lot of small actions have to be taken by a high variety of institutions and industries which today are not interconnected with each other, i.e. it requires a new cooperative and proactive network between e.g. energy utilities, car industries, those who have a sound experience with hydrogen (space industry, chemical industry) and last, but certainly not the least, the government. Based on the developed scenario precise recommendations are drawn as conclusions

  10. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  11. Impact of Transmutation Scenarios on Fuel Transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saturnin, A.; Duret, B.; Allou, A.; Jasserand, F.; Fillastre, E.; Giffard, F.X.; Chabert, C.; Caron-Charles, M.; Garzenne, C.; Laugier, F.

    2015-01-01

    Minor actinides transmutation scenarios have been studied in the frame of the French Sustainable Radioactive Waste Management Act of 28 June 2006. Transmutation scenarios supposed the introduction of a sodium-cooled fast reactor fleet using homogeneous or heterogeneous recycling modes for the minor actinides. Americium, neptunium and curium (MA) or americium alone (Am) can be transmuted together in a homogeneous way embedded in FR-MOX fuel or incorporated in MA or Am-Bearing radial Blankets (MABB or AmBB). MA transmutation in Accelerator Driven System has also been studied while plutonium is being recycled in SFR. Assessments and comparisons of these advanced cycles have been performed considering technical and economic criteria. Transportation needs for fresh and used transmutation fuels is one of these criteria. Transmutation fuels have specific characteristics in terms of thermal load and neutron emissions. Thermal, radiation and criticality constraints have been taken into account in this study to suggest cask concepts for routine conditions of transport, to estimate the number of assemblies to be transported in a cask and the number of annual transports. Comparison with the no transmutation option, i.e. management of uranium and plutonium in SFRs, is also presented. Regarding these matters, no high difficulties appear for assemblies with limited content of Am (homogeneous or heterogeneous recycling modes). When fuels contain curium, technical transport uncertainties increase because of the important heat release requiring dividing fresh fuels and technological innovations development (MABB and ADS). (authors)

  12. Critical thinking of registered nurses in a fellowship program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zori, Susan; Kohn, Nina; Gallo, Kathleen; Friedman, M Isabel

    2013-08-01

    Critical thinking is essential to nursing practice. This study examined differences in the critical thinking dispositions of registered nurses (RNs) in a nursing fellowship program. Control and experimental groups were used to compare differences in scores on the California Critical Thinking Disposition Inventory (CCTDI) of RNs at three points during a fellowship program: baseline, week 7, and month 5. The control group consisted of RNs who received no education in critical thinking. The experimental group received education in critical thinking using simulated scenarios and reflective journaling. CCTDI scores examined with analysis of variance showed no significant difference within groups over time or between groups. The baseline scores of the experimental group were slightly higher than those of the control group. Chi-square analysis of demographic variables between the two groups showed no significant differences. Critical thinking dispositions are a combination of attitudes, values, and beliefs that make up one's personality based on life experience. Lack of statistical significance using a quantitative approach did not capture the development of the critical thinking dispositions of participants. A secondary qualitative analysis of journal entries is being conducted. Copyright 2013, SLACK Incorporated.

  13. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  14. Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghanadan, Rebecca; Koomey, J.G.

    2005-01-01

    This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives importance to integrated state planning; Patriotic Energy represents a national drive to increase energy independence. Future energy consumption, composition of electricity generation, energy diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions are analyzed for each scenario through 2035. Energy savings, renewable energy, and transportation activities are identified as promising opportunities for achieving alternative energy pathways in California. A combined approach that brings together individual and community activities with state and national policies leads to the largest energy savings, increases in energy diversity, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Critical challenges in California's energy pathway over the next decades identified by the scenario analysis include dominance of the transportation sector, dependence on fossil fuels, emissions of greenhouse gases, accounting for electricity imports, and diversity of the electricity sector. The paper concludes with a set of policy lessons revealed from the California energy scenarios

  15. Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dlhopolsky, R; Hollmann, R; Mueller, J; Stuhlmann, R [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1998-12-31

    The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

  16. Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dlhopolsky, R.; Hollmann, R.; Mueller, J.; Stuhlmann, R. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1997-12-31

    The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

  17. Portability scenarios for intelligent robotic control agent software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straub, Jeremy

    2014-06-01

    Portability scenarios are critical in ensuring that a piece of AI control software will run effectively across the collection of craft that it is required to control. This paper presents scenarios for control software that is designed to control multiple craft with heterogeneous movement and functional characteristics. For each prospective target-craft type, its capabilities, mission function, location, communications capabilities and power profile are presented and performance characteristics are reviewed. This work will inform future work related to decision making related to software capabilities, hardware control capabilities and processing requirements.

  18. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

  19. Thinking Critically about Critical Thinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulnix, Jennifer Wilson

    2012-01-01

    As a philosophy professor, one of my central goals is to teach students to think critically. However, one difficulty with determining whether critical thinking can be taught, or even measured, is that there is widespread disagreement over what critical thinking actually is. Here, I reflect on several conceptions of critical thinking, subjecting…

  20. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  1. Global energy context: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  2. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  3. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  4. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  5. Developing High-Fidelity Health Care Simulation Scenarios: A Guide for Educators and Professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alinier, Guillaume

    2011-01-01

    The development of appropriate scenarios is critical in high-fidelity simulation training. They need to be developed to address specific learning objectives, while not preventing other learning points from emerging. Buying a patient simulator, finding a volunteer to act as the patient, or even obtaining ready-made scenarios from another simulation…

  6. Complex accident scenarios modelled and analysed by Stochastic Petri Nets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nývlt, Ondřej; Haugen, Stein; Ferkl, Lukáš

    2015-01-01

    This paper is focused on the usage of Petri nets for an effective modelling and simulation of complicated accident scenarios, where an order of events can vary and some events may occur anywhere in an event chain. These cases are hardly manageable by traditional methods as event trees – e.g. one pivotal event must be often inserted several times into one branch of the tree. Our approach is based on Stochastic Petri Nets with Predicates and Assertions and on an idea, which comes from the area of Programmable Logic Controllers: an accidental scenario is described as a net of interconnected blocks, which represent parts of the scenario. So the scenario is firstly divided into parts, which are then modelled by Petri nets. Every block can be easily interconnected with other blocks by input/output variables to create complex ones. In the presented approach, every event or a part of a scenario is modelled only once, independently on a number of its occurrences in the scenario. The final model is much more transparent then the corresponding event tree. The method is shown in two case studies, where the advanced one contains a dynamic behavior. - Highlights: • Event & Fault trees have problems with scenarios where an order of events can vary. • Paper presents a method for modelling and analysis of dynamic accident scenarios. • The presented method is based on Petri nets. • The proposed method solves mentioned problems of traditional approaches. • The method is shown in two case studies: simple and advanced (with dynamic behavior)

  7. Multiobjective optimization for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios using COSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freynet David

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of various fleet evolution options on material inventories and flux in fuel cycle and waste can be analysed by means of transition scenario studies. The COSI code is currently simulating chronologically scenarios whose parameters are fully defined by the user and is coupled with the CESAR depletion code. As the interactions among reactors and fuel cycle facilities can be complex, and the ways in which they may be configured are many, the development of optimization methodology could improve scenario studies. The optimization problem definition needs to list: (i criteria (e.g. saving natural resources and minimizing waste production; (ii variables (scenario parameters related to reprocessing, reactor operation, installed power distribution, etc.; (iii constraints making scenarios industrially feasible. The large number of scenario calculations needed to solve an optimization problem can be time-consuming and hardly achievable; therefore, it requires the shortening of the COSI computation time. Given that CESAR depletion calculations represent about 95% of this computation time, CESAR surrogate models have been developed and coupled with COSI. Different regression models are compared to estimate CESAR outputs: first- and second-order polynomial regressions, Gaussian process and artificial neural network. This paper is about a first optimization study of a transition scenario from the current French nuclear fleet to a Sodium Fast Reactors fleet as defined in the frame of the 2006 French Act for waste management. The present article deals with obtaining the optimal scenarios and validating the methodology implemented, i.e. the coupling between the simulation software COSI, depletion surrogate models and a genetic algorithm optimization method.

  8. Critical Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critical care helps people with life-threatening injuries and illnesses. It might treat problems such as complications from surgery, ... attention by a team of specially-trained health care providers. Critical care usually takes place in an ...

  9. A scenario for interstellar exploration and its financing

    CERN Document Server

    Bignami, Giovanni F

    2013-01-01

    This book develops a credible scenario for interstellar exploration and colonization. In so doing, it examines: • the present situation and prospects for interstellar exploration technologies; • where to go: the search for habitable planets; • the motivations for space travel and colonization; • the financial mechanisms required to fund such enterprises. The final section of the book analyzes the uncertainties surrounding the presented scenario. The purpose of building a scenario is not only to pinpoint future events but also to highlight the uncertainties that may propel the future in different directions. Interstellar travel and colonization requires a civilization in which human beings see themselves as inhabitants of a single planet and in which global governance of these processes is conducted on a cooperative basis. The key question is, then, whether our present civilization is ready for such an endeavor, reflecting the fact that the critical uncertainties are political and cultural in nature. I...

  10. Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities to Efficiently Evaluate and Select Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vano, J. A.; Kim, J. B.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

    2014-12-01

    We outline an efficient approach to help researchers and natural resource managers more effectively use global climate model information in their long-term planning. The approach provides an estimate of the magnitude of change of a particular impact (e.g., summertime streamflow) from a large ensemble of climate change projections prior to detailed analysis. These estimates provide both qualitative information as an end unto itself (e.g., the distribution of future changes between emissions scenarios for the specific impact) and a judicious, defensible evaluation structure that can be used to qualitatively select a sub-set of climate models for further analysis. More specifically, the evaluation identifies global climate model scenarios that both (1) span the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation, and (2) come from global climate models that adequately simulate historical climate, providing plausible results for the future climate in the region of interest. To identify how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an impact variable (e.g., streamflow magnitude, vegetation carbon) responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We demonstrate our technique over the Pacific Northwest, focusing on two types of impacts each in three distinct geographic settings: (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management in the Willamette, Yakima, and Upper Columbia River basins; and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon in the Oregon and Washington Coast Ranges, Western Cascades, and Columbia Basin ecoregions.

  11. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H; Bergmark, M

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  12. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs

  13. Tsunamigenic scenarios for southern Peru and northern Chile seismic gap: Deterministic and probabilistic hybrid approach for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Carrasco, J. F.; Gonzalez, G.; Aránguiz, R.; Yanez, G. A.; Melgar, D.; Salazar, P.; Shrivastava, M. N.; Das, R.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.

    2017-12-01

    Plausible worst-case tsunamigenic scenarios definition plays a relevant role in tsunami hazard assessment focused in emergency preparedness and evacuation planning for coastal communities. During the last decade, the occurrence of major and moderate tsunamigenic earthquakes along worldwide subduction zones has given clues about critical parameters involved in near-field tsunami inundation processes, i.e. slip spatial distribution, shelf resonance of edge waves and local geomorphology effects. To analyze the effects of these seismic and hydrodynamic variables over the epistemic uncertainty of coastal inundation, we implement a combined methodology using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to construct 420 tsunamigenic scenarios in a mature seismic gap of southern Peru and northern Chile, extended from 17ºS to 24ºS. The deterministic scenarios are calculated using a regional distribution of trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA) and trench-parallel topography anomaly (TPTA), three-dimensional Slab 1.0 worldwide subduction zones geometry model and published interseismic coupling (ISC) distributions. As result, we find four higher slip deficit zones interpreted as major seismic asperities of the gap, used in a hierarchical tree scheme to generate ten tsunamigenic scenarios with seismic magnitudes fluctuates between Mw 8.4 to Mw 8.9. Additionally, we construct ten homogeneous slip scenarios as inundation baseline. For the probabilistic approach, we implement a Karhunen - Loève expansion to generate 400 stochastic tsunamigenic scenarios over the maximum extension of the gap, with the same magnitude range of the deterministic sources. All the scenarios are simulated through a non-hydrostatic tsunami model Neowave 2D, using a classical nesting scheme, for five coastal major cities in northern Chile (Arica, Iquique, Tocopilla, Mejillones and Antofagasta) obtaining high resolution data of inundation depth, runup, coastal currents and sea level elevation. The

  14. How Critical Is Critical Thinking?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Ryan D.

    2014-01-01

    Recent educational discourse is full of references to the value of critical thinking as a 21st-century skill. In music education, critical thinking has been discussed in relation to problem solving and music listening, and some researchers suggest that training in critical thinking can improve students' responses to music. But what exactly is…

  15. Journalists' Occupational Stress: A Comparative Study between Reporting Critical Events and Domestic News.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteiro, Susana; Marques-Pinto, Alexandra

    2017-07-27

    Nowadays, journalism is considered a stressful occupation, not only due to the stress perceived in journalists' daily work but also due to the critical, potentially traumatic events they report. However, research on journalists' occupational stress in both these professional settings is still scarce. This study aims to characterize and compare occupational stress variables perceived by journalists in their daily work and in critical scenarios. Taking the Holistic Model of Occupational Stress by Nelson and Simmons (2003) as a framework, 25 Portuguese journalists, all with experience in reporting critical events, were interviewed on their perceptions of some core variables of the model: occupational stressors, distress and eustress emotional reactions, and the consequences of these experiences on their well-being. Differences among these core variables, according to the number of deployments to a critical event, were statistically analysed in order to ascertain whether repeated exposure to trauma influenced journalists' occupational stress perceptions. The data content analysis showed that occupational stressors and emotional reactions differed across settings, while the consequences associated with journalists' experiences were perceived as being mainly negative in both occupational contexts. Significant differences were identified in some of these variables according to the number of deployments to a critical event (p studies.

  16. Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

    2014-01-01

    The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

  17. The impact of selected sea level rise scenarios in the vicinity of Cochin harbour, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DineshKumar, P.K.

    reconfiguration in response to different sea level rise scenarios, the method of empirical distribution of new shorelines using trend lines which accounts for the inherent variability in shoreline response based on differing coastal processes is employed...

  18. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  19. Critical Jostling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pippin Barr

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Games can serve a critical function in many different ways, from serious games about real world subjects to self-reflexive commentaries on the nature of games themselves. In this essay we discuss critical possibilities stemming from the area of critical design, and more specifically Carl DiSalvo’s adversarial design and its concept of reconfiguring the remainder. To illustrate such an approach, we present the design and outcomes of two games, Jostle Bastard and Jostle Parent. We show how the games specifically engage with two previous games, Hotline Miami and Octodad: Dadliest Catch, reconfiguring elements of those games to create interactive critical experiences and extensions of the source material. Through the presentation of specific design concerns and decisions, we provide a grounded illustration of a particular critical function of videogames and hope to highlight this form as another valuable approach in the larger area of videogame criticism.

  20. OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

    2001-01-01

    Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

  1. The use of physical indicators for industrial energy demand scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schenk, Niels J.; Moll, Henri C.

    2007-01-01

    Scientific information on the size and nature of the threat of climate change is needed by politicians in order to weight their decisions. Computerised models are extremely useful tools to quantify the long-term effects of current policies. This paper describes a new modelling approach that allows formulation of industrial energy demand projections consistent with the assumptions for scenario drivers such as GDP and population. In the model, a level of industrial production is used as a key variable, and we define it in physical units, rather than in monetary units. The aim of this research is to increase insights that come with long-term energy demand scenarios. This research clearly shows that physical indicators provide additional insights in scenario analysis. The use of physical indicators instead of monetary indicators seems to affect the energy scenarios significantly. The differences with monetary indicators are larger in developing regions than in OECD regions. We conclude that an integrated energy and materials approach reveals developments that are hardly visible using a monetary approach. Moreover, this research shows the potential and benefits of the use of physical indicators for scenario development. (author)

  2. Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

  3. Critical Proximity

    OpenAIRE

    Simon, Jane

    2010-01-01

    This essay considers how written language frames visual objects. Drawing on Michel Foucault’s response to Raymond Roussel’s obsessive description, the essay proposes a model of criticism where description might press up against its objects. This critical closeness is then mapped across the conceptual art practice and art criticism of Ian Burn. Burn attends to the differences between seeing and reading, and considers the conditions which frame how we look at images, including how w...

  4. User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

    2017-04-01

    In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy

  5. Criticality Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alsaed, A.

    2004-01-01

    The ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (YMP 2003) presents the methodology for evaluating potential criticality situations in the monitored geologic repository. As stated in the referenced Topical Report, the detailed methodology for performing the disposal criticality analyses will be documented in model reports. Many of the models developed in support of the Topical Report differ from the definition of models as given in the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management procedure AP-SIII.10Q, ''Models'', in that they are procedural, rather than mathematical. These model reports document the detailed methodology necessary to implement the approach presented in the Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report and provide calculations utilizing the methodology. Thus, the governing procedure for this type of report is AP-3.12Q, ''Design Calculations and Analyses''. The ''Criticality Model'' is of this latter type, providing a process evaluating the criticality potential of in-package and external configurations. The purpose of this analysis is to layout the process for calculating the criticality potential for various in-package and external configurations and to calculate lower-bound tolerance limit (LBTL) values and determine range of applicability (ROA) parameters. The LBTL calculations and the ROA determinations are performed using selected benchmark experiments that are applicable to various waste forms and various in-package and external configurations. The waste forms considered in this calculation are pressurized water reactor (PWR), boiling water reactor (BWR), Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), Training Research Isotope General Atomic (TRIGA), Enrico Fermi, Shippingport pressurized water reactor, Shippingport light water breeder reactor (LWBR), N-Reactor, Melt and Dilute, and Fort Saint Vrain Reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The scope of this analysis is to document the criticality computational method. The criticality

  6. Development scenario for laser fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-01-01

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

  7. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  8. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. The survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy sector for the combination of wind speed and global radiation (to assess energy production). The majority of interviewees appreciates to have the new scenarios with respect to the same reference period as in CH2011 due to comparability purposes. The survey also investigated the incorporation of provided scenario uncertainty into the businesses of the users. The survey shows that this largely depends on the type of users: while intensive users often can handle uncertainties, there are a lot of other users that either cannot or purposely do not make use of uncertainty. Results of the user survey will be presented and the consequences for the next generation of Swiss climate change scenarios are discussed.

  9. An Estimation of Operator's Diagnostic Time for Feed-And-Bleed Operation under Various Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-10-15

    In order to assess realistic safety of plant, effects of interactions between components, operator, and plant condition are needed to be considered in the PSA model. One of the important issues to estimate the CDF is the estimation of human error probability (HEP). When an accident occurs, operators follow the emergency operating procedure and check various alarm, parameters, and signals. In the conventional Korean PSA model, the Korean standard HRA (K-HRA) method is used. In this method, the HEP is the sum of diagnosis error probability and execution error probability. A diagnosis error probability is expressed by the available time for diagnosis and adjusting performance shaping factors, and an execution error probability is a function of task type and stress level. Available time for diagnosis is very important factor of HEP. If the available time for diagnosis is short, the HEP becomes high. In order to obtain the realistic risk assessment results, we first focus on the estimation of HEP considering the plant dynamics under various scenarios. Target operation and scenarios are feed-and bleed operation (F and B operation) and total loss of feedwater (TLOFW) accident with/without loss of coolant accident (LOCA). One of the highest HEP is HEP of FnB operation. In additional, Scenarios, which are related to combination secondary heat removal failure and primary heat removal failure, are most critical core damage scenario of the combined accident except scenarios related to station black out (SBO). In these scenarios, the FnB operation is last resort to prevent core damage. To estimate available operator diagnosis time, we identify the relationship between accidents, mitigation function, and plant condition. Distribution of available time of diagnosis was estimated using the MOSAIQUE. The variables are break size, break timing, trip timing of RCP, and availability of high pressure safety injection (HPSI) pump under the TLOFW accident with LOCA. For Type 1 accident

  10. The Effects of Problem Based Scenarios on 9th Grade Students’ Attitudes towards Chemistry, Laboratory Anxiety, and Perceptions of Problem Solving

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faik Özgür Karataş

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Students were expected to construct knowledge, to criticize and to generate new ideas. PISA results in science field are disappointing. Turkish students’ performance on the questions that requires higher order thinking and problem solving skills is very poor. This indicates that learning environment should be redesigned to fulfill these lacking skills. Scenario based learning is one of the approaches that promotes problem solving skills by enabling active involvement of students into solving everyday problems. The purpose of this study is to examine effects of the problem based scenarios with worksheets on 9th grade students’ attitudes towards chemistry, laboratory anxiety, and problem solving perceptions. Pre- and post-test comparison with t-test showed that there is no significant difference before and after the treatment for none of the variables even though scores were higher after the treatment. On the other hand, data from observations and students interviews implied positive effect of the treatment.

  11. SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King-Clayton, L.M.; Chapman, N.A.; Kautsky, F.; Svensson, N.O.; Ledoux, E.

    1995-12-01

    The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs

  12. SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King-Clayton, L M; Chapman, N A [QuantiSci Ltd, Melton Mowbray (United Kingdom); Kautsky, F [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Svensson, N O [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Quaternary Geology; Marsily, G de [Univ. VI Paris (France); Ledoux, E [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines, 77 - Fontainebleau (France)

    1995-12-01

    The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs.

  13. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

  14. Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

  15. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  16. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  17. Critical Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Olsen, Stig Irving

    2018-01-01

    Manipulation and mistakes in LCA studies are as old as the tool itself, and so is its critical review. Besides preventing misuse and unsupported claims, critical review may also help identifying mistakes and more justifiable assumptions as well as generally improve the quality of a study. It thus...... supports the robustness of an LCA and increases trust in its results and conclusions. The focus of this chapter is on understanding what a critical review is, how the international standards define it, what its main elements are, and what reviewer qualifications are required. It is not the objective...... of this chapter to learn how to conduct a critical review, neither from a reviewer nor from a practitioner perspective. The foundation of this chapter and the basis for any critical review of LCA studies are the International Standards ISO 14040:2006, ISO 14044:2006 and ISO TS 14071:2014....

  18. Variability Bugs:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melo, Jean

    . Although many researchers suggest that preprocessor-based variability amplifies maintenance problems, there is little to no hard evidence on how actually variability affects programs and programmers. Specifically, how does variability affect programmers during maintenance tasks (bug finding in particular......)? How much harder is it to debug a program as variability increases? How do developers debug programs with variability? In what ways does variability affect bugs? In this Ph.D. thesis, I set off to address such issues through different perspectives using empirical research (based on controlled...... experiments) in order to understand quantitatively and qualitatively the impact of variability on programmers at bug finding and on buggy programs. From the program (and bug) perspective, the results show that variability is ubiquitous. There appears to be no specific nature of variability bugs that could...

  19. Contrasting safety assessments of a runway incursion scenario: Event sequence analysis versus multi-agent dynamic risk modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroeve, Sybert H.; Blom, Henk A.P.; Bakker, G.J.

    2013-01-01

    In the safety literature it has been argued, that in a complex socio-technical system safety cannot be well analysed by event sequence based approaches, but requires to capture the complex interactions and performance variability of the socio-technical system. In order to evaluate the quantitative and practical consequences of these arguments, this study compares two approaches to assess accident risk of an example safety critical sociotechnical system. It contrasts an event sequence based assessment with a multi-agent dynamic risk model (MA-DRM) based assessment, both of which are performed for a particular runway incursion scenario. The event sequence analysis uses the well-known event tree modelling formalism and the MA-DRM based approach combines agent based modelling, hybrid Petri nets and rare event Monte Carlo simulation. The comparison addresses qualitative and quantitative differences in the methods, attained risk levels, and in the prime factors influencing the safety of the operation. The assessments show considerable differences in the accident risk implications of the performance of human operators and technical systems in the runway incursion scenario. In contrast with the event sequence based results, the MA-DRM based results show that the accident risk is not manifest from the performance of and relations between individual human operators and technical systems. Instead, the safety risk emerges from the totality of the performance and interactions in the agent based model of the safety critical operation considered, which coincides very well with the argumentation in the safety literature.

  20. Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef

    2008-01-01

    susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded...... by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices...... and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions...

  1. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  2. Assessing critical source areas in watersheds for conservation buffer planning and riparian restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Zeyuan

    2009-11-01

    A science-based geographic information system (GIS) approach is presented to target critical source areas in watersheds for conservation buffer placement. Critical source areas are the intersection of hydrologically sensitive areas and pollutant source areas in watersheds. Hydrologically sensitive areas are areas that actively generate runoff in the watershed and are derived using a modified topographic index approach based on variable source area hydrology. Pollutant source areas are the areas in watersheds that are actively and intensively used for such activities as agricultural production. The method is applied to the Neshanic River watershed in Hunterdon County, New Jersey. The capacity of the topographic index in predicting the spatial pattern of runoff generation and the runoff contribution to stream flow in the watershed is evaluated. A simple cost-effectiveness assessment is conducted to compare the conservation buffer placement scenario based on this GIS method to conventional riparian buffer scenarios for placing conservation buffers in agricultural lands in the watershed. The results show that the topographic index reasonably predicts the runoff generation in the watershed. The GIS-based conservation buffer scenario appears to be more cost-effective than the conventional riparian buffer scenarios.

  3. Scenario Planning Provides a Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the National Park Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welling, L. A.

    2012-12-01

    Resource management decisions must be based on future expectations. Abundant evidence suggests climate change will have highly consequential effects on the Nation's natural and cultural resources, but specific impacts are difficult to accurately predict. This situation of too much information but not enough specificity can often lead to either paralysis or denial for decision makers. Scenario planning is an emerging tool for climate change adaptation that provides a structured framework for identifying and exploring critical drivers of change and their uncertain outcomes. Since 2007, the National Park Service (NPS) has been working with its partners to develop and apply a scenario-based approach for adaptation planning that integrates quantitative, model-driven, climate change projections with qualitative, participatory exercises to explore management and policy options under a range of future conditions. Major outcomes of this work are (1) increased understanding of key scientific results and uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into park and landscape level planning, (3) identification of "no brainer" and "no gainer" actions, (4) strengthening of regional science-management partnerships, and (5) overall improved capacity for flexible decision making. The basic approach employed by NPS for scenario planning follows a typical adaptive management process: define the focal question, assess the relevant science, explore plausible futures, identify effective strategies, prioritize and implement actions, and monitor results. Many science and management partners contributed to the process, including NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs) and Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), USGS Research Centers, and other university and government scientists. The Global Business Network, an internationally recognized leader in scenario development, provided expert facilitation and training techniques. Climate science input is provided

  4. Efficient multi-scenario Model Predictive Control for water resources management with ensemble streamflow forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xin; Negenborn, Rudy R.; van Overloop, Peter-Jules; María Maestre, José; Sadowska, Anna; van de Giesen, Nick

    2017-11-01

    Model Predictive Control (MPC) is one of the most advanced real-time control techniques that has been widely applied to Water Resources Management (WRM). MPC can manage the water system in a holistic manner and has a flexible structure to incorporate specific elements, such as setpoints and constraints. Therefore, MPC has shown its versatile performance in many branches of WRM. Nonetheless, with the in-depth understanding of stochastic hydrology in recent studies, MPC also faces the challenge of how to cope with hydrological uncertainty in its decision-making process. A possible way to embed the uncertainty is to generate an Ensemble Forecast (EF) of hydrological variables, rather than a deterministic one. The combination of MPC and EF results in a more comprehensive approach: Multi-scenario MPC (MS-MPC). In this study, we will first assess the model performance of MS-MPC, considering an ensemble streamflow forecast. Noticeably, the computational inefficiency may be a critical obstacle that hinders applicability of MS-MPC. In fact, with more scenarios taken into account, the computational burden of solving an optimization problem in MS-MPC accordingly increases. To deal with this challenge, we propose the Adaptive Control Resolution (ACR) approach as a computationally efficient scheme to practically reduce the number of control variables in MS-MPC. In brief, the ACR approach uses a mixed-resolution control time step from the near future to the distant future. The ACR-MPC approach is tested on a real-world case study: an integrated flood control and navigation problem in the North Sea Canal of the Netherlands. Such an approach reduces the computation time by 18% and up in our case study. At the same time, the model performance of ACR-MPC remains close to that of conventional MPC.

  5. Creating pedestrian crash scenarios in a driving simulator environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrysler, Susan T; Ahmad, Omar; Schwarz, Chris W

    2015-01-01

    In 2012 in the United States, pedestrian injuries accounted for 3.3% of all traffic injuries but, disproportionately, pedestrian fatalities accounted for roughly 14% of traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2014 ). In many other countries, pedestrians make up more than 50% of those injured and killed in crashes. This research project examined driver response to crash-imminent situations involving pedestrians in a high-fidelity, full-motion driving simulator. This article presents a scenario development method and discusses experimental design and control issues in conducting pedestrian crash research in a simulation environment. Driving simulators offer a safe environment in which to test driver response and offer the advantage of having virtual pedestrian models that move realistically, unlike test track studies, which by nature must use pedestrian dummies on some moving track. An analysis of pedestrian crash trajectories, speeds, roadside features, and pedestrian behavior was used to create 18 unique crash scenarios representative of the most frequent and most costly crash types. For the study reported here, we only considered scenarios where the car is traveling straight because these represent the majority of fatalities. We manipulated driver expectation of a pedestrian both by presenting intersection and mid-block crossing as well as by using features in the scene to direct the driver's visual attention toward or away from the crossing pedestrian. Three visual environments for the scenarios were used to provide a variety of roadside environments and speed: a 20-30 mph residential area, a 55 mph rural undivided highway, and a 40 mph urban area. Many variables of crash situations were considered in selecting and developing the scenarios, including vehicle and pedestrian movements; roadway and roadside features; environmental conditions; and characteristics of the pedestrian, driver, and vehicle. The driving simulator scenarios were subjected to iterative testing to

  6. APS Quantum Critical Higgs

    CERN Document Server

    Bellazzini, Brando; Hubisz, Jay; Lee, Seung J.; Serra, Javi; Terning, John

    2016-01-01

    The appearance of the light Higgs boson at the LHC is difficult to explain, particularly in light of naturalness arguments in quantum field theory. However light scalars can appear in condensed matter systems when parameters (like the amount of doping) are tuned to a critical point. At zero temperature these quantum critical points are directly analogous to the finely tuned standard model. In this paper we explore a class of models with a Higgs near a quantum critical point that exhibits non-mean-field behavior. We discuss the parametrization of the effects of a Higgs emerging from such a critical point in terms of form factors, and present two simple realistic scenarios based on either generalized free fields or a 5D dual in AdS space. For both of these models we consider the processes $gg\\to ZZ$ and $gg\\to hh$, which can be used to gain information about the Higgs scaling dimension and IR transition scale from the experimental data.

  7. Quantum Critical Higgs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellazzini, Brando; Csáki, Csaba; Hubisz, Jay; Lee, Seung J.; Serra, Javi; Terning, John

    2016-10-01

    The appearance of the light Higgs boson at the LHC is difficult to explain, particularly in light of naturalness arguments in quantum field theory. However, light scalars can appear in condensed matter systems when parameters (like the amount of doping) are tuned to a critical point. At zero temperature these quantum critical points are directly analogous to the finely tuned standard model. In this paper, we explore a class of models with a Higgs near a quantum critical point that exhibits non-mean-field behavior. We discuss the parametrization of the effects of a Higgs emerging from such a critical point in terms of form factors, and present two simple realistic scenarios based on either generalized free fields or a 5D dual in anti-de Sitter space. For both of these models, we consider the processes g g →Z Z and g g →h h , which can be used to gain information about the Higgs scaling dimension and IR transition scale from the experimental data.

  8. ITER safety and operational scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimomura, Y.; Saji, G.

    1998-01-01

    The safety and environmental characteristics of ITER and its operational scenario are described. Fusion has built-in safety characteristics without depending on layers of safety protection systems. Safety considerations are integrated in the design by making use of the intrinsic safety characteristics of fusion adequate to the moderate hazard inventories. In addition to this, a systematic nuclear safety approach has been applied to the design of ITER. The safety assessment of the design shows how ITER will safely accommodate uncertainties, flexibility of plasma operations, and experimental components, which is fundamental in ITER, the first experimental fusion reactor. The operation of ITER will progress step by step from hydrogen plasma operation with low plasma current, low magnetic field, short pulse and low duty factor without fusion power to deuterium-tritium plasma operation with full plasma current, full magnetic field, long pulse and high duty factor with full fusion power. In each step, characteristics of plasma and optimization of plasma operation will be studied which will significantly reduce uncertainties and frequency/severity of plasma transient events in the next step. This approach enhances reliability of ITER operation. (orig.)

  9. Project scenarios for bitumen upgrading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koppel, P.E.; Mazurek, W.L.; Harji, A.

    2002-01-01

    The established reserves of Alberta's heavy oil resources are 178 billion barrels, and potential recoverable reserves are 315 billion barrels. The challenge of production includes the logistics of recovery, upgrading and transportation to market. Utilization of the bitumen is not simple because bitumen is too viscous to transport by pipeline. In addition, it is not processable by most existing refineries unless it can be upgraded through dilution. This paper examined different factors regarding the economic viability of various upgrading methods of a wide range of bitumen feedstocks. The study also examined the sensitivity of refinery demand to the prices of these feedstocks, along with the competitiveness among bitumen-based feedstock and conventional crudes. Western Canada, Ontario and the PADD II district in the United States are the 3 major markets for western Canadian bitumen based feedstock, the demand for which depends on refinery configurations and asphalt demand. This paper described the following 4 generic scenarios that describe Alberta bitumen upgrading projects: (1) adjacent to open pit mines, (2) adjacent to steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) facilities, (3) remotely located from resource production at an existing refinery, and (4) pipeline bitumen. It was noted that producers should determine the best way to upgrade the bitumen to ensure there is an economic market for the product, but they should also be aware not to over process the bitumen so as not to leave existing refinery facilities under-utilized. 2 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  10. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  11. Non-Critical Covariant Superstrings

    CERN Document Server

    Grassi, P A

    2005-01-01

    We construct a covariant description of non-critical superstrings in even dimensions. We construct explicitly supersymmetric hybrid type variables in a linear dilaton background, and study an underlying N=2 twisted superconformal algebra structure. We find similarities between non-critical superstrings in 2n+2 dimensions and critical superstrings compactified on CY_(4-n) manifolds. We study the spectrum of the non-critical strings, and in particular the Ramond-Ramond massless fields. We use the supersymmetric variables to construct the non-critical superstrings sigma-model action in curved target space backgrounds with coupling to the Ramond-Ramond fields. We consider as an example non-critical type IIA strings on AdS_2 background with Ramond-Ramond 2-form flux.

  12. Critical Arts

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    both formal and informal) in culture and social theory. CRITICAL ARTS aims to challenge and ... Book Review: Brian McNair, An Introduction to Political Communication (3rd edition), London: Routledge, 2003, ISBN 0415307082, 272pp. Phil Joffe ...

  13. Critical Proximity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Simon

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This essay considers how written language frames visual objects. Drawing on Michel Foucault’s response to Raymond Roussel’s obsessive description, the essay proposes a model of criticism where description might press up against its objects. This critical closeness is then mapped across the conceptual art practice and art criticism of Ian Burn. Burn attends to the differences between seeing and reading, and considers the conditions which frame how we look at images, including how we look at, and through words. The essay goes on to consider Meaghan Morris’s writing on Lynn Silverman’s photographs. Both Morris and Burn offer an alternative to a parasitic model of criticism and enact a patient way of looking across and through visual landscapes.

  14. Critical proximity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon, Jane

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay considers how written language frames visual objects. Drawing on Michel Foucault’s response to Raymond Roussel’s obsessive description, the essay proposes a model of criticism where description might press up against its objects. This critical closeness is then mapped across the conceptual art practice and art criticism of Ian Burn. Burn attends to the differences between seeing and reading, and considers the conditions which frame how we look at images, including how we look at, and through words. The essay goes on to consider Meaghan Morris’s writing on Lynn Silverman’s photographs. Both Morris and Burn offer an alternative to a parasitic model of criticism and enact a patient way of looking across and through visual landscapes.

  15. Criticality safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, G.

    1983-01-01

    When a sufficient quantity of fissile material is brought together a self-sustaining neutron chain reaction will be started in it and will continue until some change occurs in the fissile material to stop the chain reaction. The quantity of fissile material required is the 'Critical Mass'. This is not a fixed quantity even for a given type of fissile material but varies between quite wide limits depending on a number of factors. In a nuclear reactor the critical mass of fissile material is assembled under well-defined condition to produce a controllable chain reaction. The same materials have to be handled outside the reactor in all stages of fuel element manufacture, storage, transport and irradiated fuel reprocessing. At any stage it is possible (at least in principle) to assemble a critical mass and thus initiate an accidental and uncontrollable chain reaction. Avoiding this is what criticality safety is all about. A system is just critical when the rate of production of neutrons balances the rate of loss either by escape or by absorption. The factors affecting criticality are, therefore, those which effect neutron production and loss. The principal ones are:- type of nuclide and enrichment (or isotopic composition), moderation, reflection, concentration (density), shape and interaction. Each factor is considered in detail. (author)

  16. CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

  17. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  18. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  19. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  20. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  1. Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hosmer, Hilary

    2000-01-01

    .... Visual attack scenarios help defenders see system ambiguities, imprecision, vulnerabilities and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic...

  2. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  3. Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costantini, V.; Markandya, A.; Vicini, G.

    2007-01-01

    This policy compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyse projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy-importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level. (author)

  4. Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costantini, Valeria; Gracceva, Francesco; Markandya, Anil; Vicini, Giorgio

    2007-01-01

    This paper compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyse projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy-importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level

  5. Artificial Intelligence and its Reasonable Application Scenario to Reactor Operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Im, Ki Hong; Suh, Yong-Suk; Park, Cheol; Lim, In-Cheol

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents brief but reasonable scenarios for applying AI or machine learning technologies to research reactor from various perspectives. Two less safety critical scenarios for applying AI to reactor operation are introduced in this study. However, the AI assistant will not only be an assistant but it will also be an operator in the future. What is required is big operation data which can represent all the cases requiring operation decision, including normal operation and accident data as well, and enough time to train and fix the AI system with this data. We can predict AI study in this area can begin with a mild and safe application. But in the near future, this technology could be used to handle or automate more severe operations.

  6. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  7. TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

    2014-01-01

    TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

  8. Pulsating variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The study of stellar pulsations is a major route to the understanding of stellar structure and evolution. At the South African Astronomical Observatory (SAAO) the following stellar pulsation studies were undertaken: rapidly oscillating Ap stars; solar-like oscillations in stars; 8-Scuti type variability in a classical Am star; Beta Cephei variables; a pulsating white dwarf and its companion; RR Lyrae variables and galactic Cepheids. 4 figs

  9. The joint SKI/SKB scenario development project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Johan

    1989-12-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Power and Swedish Nuclear Waste Management Co. have carried through a joint scenario development exercise of a hypothetical repository for spent fuel and high level waste based on the KBS-3 concept as disposal method. The starting point has been the 'Sandia methodology', but the actual implementation of the steps in this method has required new strategy development. The work started with a relatively large internationally composed group meeting, which identified an extensive list of features, events and processes (FEPs) that might influence the long term performance of a repository. All these FEPs as well as its possible causes and consequences have been entered into a computer database. The next step in the development was to remove from the list approximately 30 FEPs of low probability or negligible consequence. In a following step a large number of the FEPs on the original list were assigned to the 'PROCESS SYSTEM', comprising the complete set of 'deterministic' chemical and physical processes that might influence the release from the repository to the biosphere. A scenario is defined by a set of external conditions which will influence the processes in the PROCESS SYSTEM. Approximately 50 FEPs were left representing external conditions. The remaining FEPs could all be combined to form scenarios, but it is concluded that it is not meaningful to discuss combinations without first analysing the consequence and probability of the individual conditions. An important aspect of the work is that the developed strategy includes a framework for the documentation of the complete chain of scenario development. Such a transparent documentation makes possible an extensive review and updating of the set of scenarios. A reviewing process, open to very broad groups in the society, is probably the best means of assuring reasonable completeness and of building up a general consensus on what are the critical issues for the safe disposal of radioactive waste

  10. Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johns, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    .... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

  11. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  12. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  13. Some issues in the ghost condensation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anisimov, A.

    2004-01-01

    In the recently proposed 'ghost condensation' scenario a model of consistent infrared modification of gravity was suggested. We first review the basic ideas of this scenario. We discuss various phenomenological aspects of the ghost condensation, such as stability of the condensate, bounds on the UV cut-off scale of the corresponding effective field theory and other issues. (author)

  14. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  15. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges...

  16. Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoekstra, J [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

  17. Synchronization scenarios in the Winfree model of coupled oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallego, Rafael; Montbrió, Ernest; Pazó, Diego

    2017-10-01

    Fifty years ago Arthur Winfree proposed a deeply influential mean-field model for the collective synchronization of large populations of phase oscillators. Here we provide a detailed analysis of the model for some special, analytically tractable cases. Adopting the thermodynamic limit, we derive an ordinary differential equation that exactly describes the temporal evolution of the macroscopic variables in the Ott-Antonsen invariant manifold. The low-dimensional model is then thoroughly investigated for a variety of pulse types and sinusoidal phase response curves (PRCs). Two structurally different synchronization scenarios are found, which are linked via the mutation of a Bogdanov-Takens point. From our results, we infer a general rule of thumb relating pulse shape and PRC offset with each scenario. Finally, we compare the exact synchronization threshold with the prediction of the averaging approximation given by the Kuramoto-Sakaguchi model. At the leading order, the discrepancy appears to behave as an odd function of the PRC offset.

  18. Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoekstra, J. [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

  19. Bifurcation scenarios for bubbling transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimin, Aleksey V; Hunt, Brian R; Ott, Edward

    2003-01-01

    Dynamical systems with chaos on an invariant submanifold can exhibit a type of behavior called bubbling, whereby a small random or fixed perturbation to the system induces intermittent bursting. The bifurcation to bubbling occurs when a periodic orbit embedded in the chaotic attractor in the invariant manifold becomes unstable to perturbations transverse to the invariant manifold. Generically the periodic orbit can become transversely unstable through a pitchfork, transcritical, period-doubling, or Hopf bifurcation. In this paper a unified treatment of the four types of bubbling bifurcation is presented. Conditions are obtained determining whether the transition to bubbling is soft or hard; that is, whether the maximum burst amplitude varies continuously or discontinuously with variation of the parameter through its critical value. For soft bubbling transitions, the scaling of the maximum burst amplitude with the parameter is derived. For both hard and soft transitions the scaling of the average interburst time with the bifurcation parameter is deduced. Both random (noise) and fixed (mismatch) perturbations are considered. Results of numerical experiments testing our theoretical predictions are presented.

  20. Critical Vidders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svegaard, Robin Sebastian Kaszmarczyk

    2015-01-01

    This article will introduce and take a look at a specific subset of the fan created remix videos known as vids, namely those that deal with feminist based critique of media. Through examples, it will show how fans construct and present their critique, and finally broach the topic of the critical ...

  1. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...

  2. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  3. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  4. Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

    2000-01-01

    The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

  5. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

  6. Cognitive Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegler, Robert S.

    2007-01-01

    Children's thinking is highly variable at every level of analysis, from neural and associative levels to the level of strategies, theories, and other aspects of high-level cognition. This variability exists within people as well as between them; individual children often rely on different strategies or representations on closely related problems…

  7. Cohort: critical science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Digney, Bruce L.

    2007-04-01

    Unmanned vehicle systems is an attractive technology for the military, but whose promises have remained largely undelivered. There currently exist fielded remote controlled UGVs and high altitude UAV whose benefits are based on standoff in low complexity environments with sufficiently low control reaction time requirements to allow for teleoperation. While effective within there limited operational niche such systems do not meet with the vision of future military UxV scenarios. Such scenarios envision unmanned vehicles operating effectively in complex environments and situations with high levels of independence and effective coordination with other machines and humans pursing high level, changing and sometimes conflicting goals. While these aims are clearly ambitious they do provide necessary targets and inspiration with hopes of fielding near term useful semi-autonomous unmanned systems. Autonomy involves many fields of research including machine vision, artificial intelligence, control theory, machine learning and distributed systems all of which are intertwined and have goals of creating more versatile broadly applicable algorithms. Cohort is a major Applied Research Program (ARP) led by Defence R&D Canada (DRDC) Suffield and its aim is to develop coordinated teams of unmanned vehicles (UxVs) for urban environments. This paper will discuss the critical science being addressed by DRDC developing semi-autonomous systems.

  8. Study on probability distribution of fire scenarios in risk assessment to emergency evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu Guanquan; Wang Jinhui

    2012-01-01

    Event tree analysis (ETA) is a frequently-used technique to analyze the probability of probable fire scenario. The event probability is usually characterized by definite value. It is not appropriate to use definite value as these estimates may be the result of poor quality statistics and limited knowledge. Without addressing uncertainties, ETA will give imprecise results. The credibility of risk assessment will be undermined. This paper presents an approach to address event probability uncertainties and analyze probability distribution of probable fire scenario. ETA is performed to construct probable fire scenarios. The activation time of every event is characterized as stochastic variable by considering uncertainties of fire growth rate and other input variables. To obtain probability distribution of probable fire scenario, Markov Chain is proposed to combine with ETA. To demonstrate the approach, a case study is presented.

  9. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  10. Critical reading and critical thinking Critical reading and critical thinking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loni Kreis Taglieber

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to provide, for L1 and L2 reading and writing teachers, a brief overview of the literature about critical reading and higher level thinking skills. The teaching of these skills is still neglected in some language classes in Brazil, be it in L1 or in L2 classes. Thus, this paper may also serve as a resource guide for L1 and/or L2 reading and writing teachers who want to incorporate critical reading and thinking into their classes. In modern society, even in everyday life people frequently need to deal with complicated public and political issues, make decisions, and solve problems. In order to do this efficiently and effectively, citizens must be able to evaluate critically what they see, hear, and read. Also, with the huge amount of printed material available in all areas in this age of “information explosion” it is easy to feel overwhelmed. But often the information piled up on people’s desks and in their minds is of no use due to the enormous amount of it. The purpose of this paper is to provide, for L1 and L2 reading and writing teachers, a brief overview of the literature about critical reading and higher level thinking skills. The teaching of these skills is still neglected in some language classes in Brazil, be it in L1 or in L2 classes. Thus, this paper may also serve as a resource guide for L1 and/or L2 reading and writing teachers who want to incorporate critical reading and thinking into their classes. In modern society, even in everyday life people frequently need to deal with complicated public and political issues, make decisions, and solve problems. In order to do this efficiently and effectively, citizens must be able to evaluate critically what they see, hear, and read. Also, with the huge amount of printed material available in all areas in this age of “information explosion” it is easy to feel overwhelmed. But often the information piled up on people’s desks and in their minds is of

  11. Comparison of teen and adult driver crash scenarios in a nationally representative sample of serious crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Catherine C; Curry, Allison E; Kandadai, Venk; Sommers, Marilyn S; Winston, Flaura K

    2014-11-01

    Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death and acquired disability during the first four decades of life. While teen drivers have the highest crash risk, few studies examine the similarities and differences in teen and adult driver crashes. We aimed to: (1) identify and compare the most frequent crash scenarios-integrated information on a vehicle's movement prior to crash, immediate pre-crash event, and crash configuration-for teen and adult drivers involved in serious crashes, and (2) for the most frequent scenarios, explore whether the distribution of driver critical errors differed for teens and adult drivers. We analyzed data from the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey, a nationally representative study of serious crashes conducted by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration from 2005 to 2007. Our sample included 642 16- to 19-year-old and 1167 35- to 54-year-old crash-involved drivers (weighted n=296,482 and 439,356, respectively) who made a critical error that led to their crash's critical pre-crash event (i.e., event that made the crash inevitable). We estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to compare the relative frequency of crash scenarios and driver critical errors. The top five crash scenarios among teen drivers, accounting for 37.3% of their crashes, included: (1) going straight, other vehicle stopped, rear end; (2) stopped in traffic lane, turning left at intersection, turn into path of other vehicle; (3) negotiating curve, off right edge of road, right roadside departure; (4) going straight, off right edge of road, right roadside departure; and (5) stopped in lane, turning left at intersection, turn across path of other vehicle. The top five crash scenarios among adult drivers, accounting for 33.9% of their crashes, included the same scenarios as the teen drivers with the exception of scenario (3) and the addition of going straight, crossing over an intersection, and continuing on a

  12. Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

    2009-01-01

    A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

  13. Coordinated Development and Deployment of Scenarios for Sustained Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipschultz, F.; Weaver, C. P.; Leidner, A. K.; Delgado, A.; Grambsch, A.

    2017-12-01

    There has been a clear need for a more coordinated Federal government approach for authoritative, climate-relevant scenarios to support growing demands by decision-makers, to meet stakeholder needs for consistent approaches and guidance, and to better address the needs of the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability community. To begin to satisfy these decision-support needs, in early 2015 the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began coordinated production of scenario information for use across a suite of USGCRP activities. These have been implemented in the 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the Climate Science Special Report and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT), all of which are intended to help better organize, summarize, and communicate science to decision-makers as they think about our future. First, USGCRP introduced and implemented an explicit risk-framing approach across the entire scenario enterprise to encourage exploration of tail risks. A suite of scenario products was developed framed around three simplified storylines: `Lower', `Higher', and `Upper Bound' departures from current baselines. Second, USGCRP developed future climate information for the U.S. using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5, including a weighted mean of Global Climate Models and adoption of an improved statistical downscaling approach across USGCRP products. Additional variables were derived from the downscaled parameters for use across USGCRP reports and in the CRT's Climate Explorer tool. Third, and given the need to address other tightly-coupled global changes in a more integrated way, a set of population, housing density, and impervious surface projections were developed based on global scenarios. In addition, USGCRP and the National Ocean Council developed scenarios of future sea-level rise and coastal-flood hazard for the U.S. and integrated them into existing Federal capabilities to support preparedness planning. To better convey these

  14. Criticality accident:

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canavese, Susana I.

    2000-01-01

    A criticality accident occurred at 10:35 on September 30, 1999. It occurred in a precipitation tank in a Conversion Test Building at the JCO Tokai Works site in Tokaimura (Tokai Village) in the Ibaraki Prefecture of Japan. STA provisionally rated this accident a 4 on the seven-level, logarithmic International Nuclear Event Scale (INES). The September 30, 1999 criticality accident at the JCO Tokai Works Site in Tokaimura, Japan in described in preliminary, technical detail. Information is based on preliminary presentations to technical groups by Japanese scientists and spokespersons, translations by technical and non-technical persons of technical web postings by various nuclear authorities, and English-language non-technical reports from various news media and nuclear-interest groups. (author)

  15. Critical dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dekker, H.

    1980-01-01

    It is shown how to solve the master equation for a Markov process including a critical point by means of successive approximations in terms of a small parameter. A critical point occurs if, by adjusting an externally controlled quantity, the system shows a transition from normal monostable to bistable behaviour. The fundamental idea of the theory is to separate the master equation into its proper irreducible part and a corrective remainder. The irreducible or zeroth order stochastic approximation will be a relatively simple Fokker-Planck equation that contains the essential features of the process. Once the solution of this irreducible equation is known, the higher order corrections in the original master equation can be incorporated in a systematic manner. (Auth.)

  16. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  17. Critical scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stirling, W.G.; Perry, S.C.

    1996-01-01

    We outline the theoretical and experimental background to neutron scattering studies of critical phenomena at magnetic and structural phase transitions. The displacive phase transition of SrTiO 3 is discussed, along with examples from recent work on magnetic materials from the rare-earth (Ho, Dy) and actinide (NpAs, NpSb, USb) classes. The impact of synchrotron X-ray scattering is discussed in conclusion. (author) 13 figs., 18 refs

  18. Nuclear power: An evolving scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ElBaradei, Mohamed

    2004-01-01

    The past two years have found the IAEA often in the spotlight - primarily because of our role as the world's 'nuclear watchdog', as we are sometimes referred to on the evening news. The most visible, and often controversial, peaceful nuclear application is the generation of electricity, the focus of this article largely from a European perspective. At the end of last year there were 440 nuclear power units operating worldwide. Together, they supply about 16% of the world's electricity. That percentage has remained relatively steady for almost 20 years. Expansion and growth prospects for nuclear power are centred in Asia. Of the 31 units under construction worldwide, 18 are located in India, Japan, South Korea and China, including Taiwan. Twenty of the last 29 reactors to be connected to the grid are also in the Far East and South Asia. That is probably more active construction than most Europeans would guess, given how little recent growth has occurred in the West. For Western Europe and North America, nuclear construction has been a frozen playing field - the last plant to be completed being Civaux-2 in France in 1999. That should raise a question: with little to no new construction, how has nuclear power been able to keep up with other energy sources, to maintain its share of electricity generation? Interestingly enough, the answer is tied directly to efforts to improve safety performance. The accident at Chernobyl in 1986 prompted the creation of the World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO), and revolutionized the IAEA approach to nuclear power plant safety. Some analysts believe the case for new nuclear construction in Europe is gaining new ground, for a number of reasons: efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the risk of climate change; security of energy supply; Comparative Public Health Risk; different set of variables when choosing Each country's and region energy strategy. Looking to the future, certain key challenges are, of direct

  19. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  20. Energy and the Presidential elections: deciphering reports and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marignac, Yves; Dessus, Benjamin; Laponche, Bernard; Ruedinger, Andreas; Marquet, Andre; Zerbib, Jean-Claude; Quetel, Ghislain; Guillemette, Andre

    2012-03-01

    After a comment of the Fukushima accident and its implications for nuclear energy, this issue proposes a critical review of various reports and scenarios on energy perspectives: a report by the ASN on 'Complementary safety assessments' (critical analysis of these assessments, weaknesses of the ASN analysis), a report by the French Court of Audit or 'Cour des Comptes' (past, current and future expenses, assets), the Commission Energies 2050 study (on the Europeans and world energy context, on the future on the French energy mix), a study by the French Union of Electricity (Electricity 2030: which choices for France?), a note by the CEA on the assessment of phasing out nuclear. Additional contributions propose a discussion of costs and conditions of phasing out nuclear, and a presentation of La Hague pools (their design, their management, their ability to withstand earthquakes, their other safety criteria)

  1. Heisenberg spin glass experiments and the chiral ordering scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, Ian A.; Petit, Dorothee C.M.C.

    2010-01-01

    An overview is given of experimental data on Heisenberg spin glass materials so as to make detailed comparisons with numerical results on model Heisenberg spin glasses, with particular reference to the chiral driven ordering transition scenario due to Kawamura and collaborators. On weak anisotropy systems, experiments show critical exponents which are very similar to those estimated numerically for the model Heisenberg chiral ordering transition but which are quite different from those at Ising spin glass transitions. Again on weak anisotropy Heisenberg spin glasses, experimental torque data show well defined in-field transverse ordering transitions up to strong applied fields, in contrast to Ising spin glasses where fields destroy ordering. When samples with stronger anisotropies are studied, critical and in-field behavior tend progressively towards the Ising limit. It can be concluded that the essential physics of laboratory Heisenberg spin glasses mirrors that of model Heisenberg spin glasses, where chiral ordering has been demonstrated numerically. (author)

  2. Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

    2009-01-01

    Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

  3. Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

    2016-07-24

    There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

  4. Scenarios for low carbon and low water electric power plant ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    In the water-energy nexus, water use for the electric power sector is critical. Currently, the operational phase of electric power production dominates the electric sector's life cycle withdrawal and consumption of fresh water resources. Water use associated with the fuel cycle and power plant equipment manufacturing phase is substantially lower on a life cycle basis. An outstanding question is: how do regional shifts to lower carbon electric power mixes affect the relative contribution of the upstream life cycle water use? To test this, we examine a range of scenarios comparing a baseline with scenarios of carbon reduction and water use constraints using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy systems model with ORD's 2014 U.S. 9-region database (EPAUS9r). The results suggest that moving toward a low carbon and low water electric power mix may increase the non-operational water use. In particular, power plant manufacturing water use for concentrating solar power, and fuel cycle water use for biomass feedstock, could see sharp increases under scenarios of high deployment of these low carbon options. Our analysis addresses the following questions. First, how does moving to a lower carbon electricity generation mix affect the overall regional electric power water use from a life cycle perspective? Second, how does constraining the operational water use for power plants affect the mix, if at all? Third, how does the life cycle water use differ among regions under

  5. Simulation of soil response to acidic deposition scenarios in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vries, W. de; Reinds, G.J.; Posch, M.; Kaemaera, J.

    1994-01-01

    The chemical response of European forest soils to three emission-deposition scenarios for the year 1960-2050, i.e. official energy pathways (OEP), current reduction plans (CRP) and maximum feasible reductions (MFR), was evaluated with the SMART model (Simulation Model for Acidification's Regional Trends). Calculations were made for coniferous and deciduous forests on 80 soil types occurring on the FAO soil map of Europe, using a gradient of 1.0 degree C longitude x 0.5 degree latitude. Results indicated that the area with nitrogen saturated soils, i.e. soils with elevated NO 3 concentrations (>0.02 mol c m -3 ) will increase in the future for all scenarios, even for the MFR scenario. The area with acidified soils, with a high Al concentration (> 0.2 mol c m -3 ) and Al/BC ratio (>1 mol -1 ) and a low pH ( 3 and Al concentrations mainly occurred in western, central and eastern Europe. Uncertainties in the initial values of C/N ratios and base saturation, and in the description of N dynamics in the SMART model had the largest impact on the temporal development of forested areas exceeding critical parameter values. Despite uncertainties involved, predicted general trends are plausible and reliable. 61 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs

  6. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Multimedia

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  7. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  8. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  9. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  10. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants......Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  11. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  12. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  13. Critical Mass

    CERN Multimedia

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2070299

    2017-01-01

    Critical Mass is a cycling event typically held on the last Friday of every month; its purpose is not usually formalized beyond the direct action of meeting at a set location and time and traveling as a group through city or town streets on bikes. The event originated in 1992 in San Francisco; by the end of 2003, the event was being held in over 300 cities around the world. At CERN it is held once a year in conjunction with the national Swiss campaing "Bike to work".

  14. Do invasive riparian Tamarix alter hydrology of riparian areas of arid and semi-arid regions under climate change scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, M. P.; Acharya, K.; Chen, L.

    2012-12-01

    Competitiveness of riparian invasive species, Tamarix, in arid and semi-arid riparian areas of the southwestern United States under climate change scenario (SRES A2) was investigated. Tamarix has been replacing native vegetation along the riparian corridors of these areas for the past several decades and is thought to alter water balance. Changes in depth to groundwater, soil moisture distribution and flood frequency are critical in survival and growth of a facultative phreatophyte such as Tamarix. In this study, a fully coupled 2d surface flow and 3d subsurface flow hydrologic model, HydroGeoSphere, was used to simulate surface-subsurface hydrology of the lower Virgin River basin (4500 sq. km), located in Nevada, Utah and Arizona. The hydrologic model results, depth to groundwater and soil saturation, were then applied to the species distribution model, Maxent, along with other bioclimatic parameters to asses future Tamarix distribution probability. Simulations were made for the climate scenarios of the end of 21st centry conditions. Depth to groundwater is found to be the most important predictor variable to the Maxent model. Future Tamarix distribution range is not uniform across the basin. It is likely to decrease at lower elevations and increase in some higher elevation areas.

  15. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    OpenAIRE

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to ide...

  16. FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

  17. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zucchetti, M.; Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P.

    1998-01-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  18. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zucchetti, M. [European Commission, JRC, Institute for Advanced Material, Ispra, Vatican City State, Holy See (Italy); Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P. [Energetics Dept., Polytechnic of Turin (Italy)

    1998-07-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  19. Quantifying scenarios to check statistical procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beetle, T.M.

    1976-01-01

    Ways of diverting nuclear material are presented in a form that reflects the effects of the diversions on a select set of statistical accounting procedures. Twelve statistics are examined for changes in mean values under sixty diversion scenarios. Several questions about the statistics are answered using a table of quantification results. Findings include a smallest, proper subset of the set of statistics which has one or more changed mean values under each of the diversion scenarios

  20. Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuzhyk Kateryna

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

  1. Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

    2005-01-01

    Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

  2. Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

  3. Scenarios for energy forecasting: papers of the symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    Energy planning is important for every developed country and therefore also for South Africa. However, during 1984 it was felt by interested parties that the work in this field should be coordinated through mutual discussion. With this in mind a 'Task Team for Energy Forecasting' was formed with the task to generate acceptable forecasts of the energy set-up in South Africa. Knowledge of the relationship between energy and variables such as the economy and the population is necessary to the Task Team. However, the Task Team also needs some insight into the future paths of such variables if it has to generate energy forecasts. It is the purpose of this symposium to improve this insight through having experts in all relevant fields to set out and develop their possible future scenarios independently of energy forecasting

  4. Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted

  5. Environmental influences on mate preferences as assessed by a scenario manipulation experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzoli, Daniele; Moretto, Francesco; Monti, Aura; Tocci, Ornella; Roberts, S Craig; Tommasi, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Many evolutionary psychology studies have addressed the topic of mate preferences, focusing particularly on gender and cultural differences. However, the extent to which situational and environmental variables might affect mate preferences has been comparatively neglected. We tested 288 participants in order to investigate the perceived relative importance of six traits of an ideal partner (wealth, dominance, intelligence, height, kindness, attractiveness) under four different hypothetical scenarios (status quo/nowadays, violence/post-nuclear, poverty/resource exhaustion, prosperity/global well-being). An equal number of participants (36 women, 36 men) was allotted to each scenario; each was asked to allocate 120 points across the six traits according to their perceived value. Overall, intelligence was the trait to which participants assigned most importance, followed by kindness and attractiveness, and then by wealth, dominance and height. Men appraised attractiveness as more valuable than women. Scenario strongly influenced the relative importance attributed to traits, the main finding being that wealth and dominance were more valued in the poverty and post-nuclear scenarios, respectively, compared to the other scenarios. Scenario manipulation generally had similar effects in both sexes, but women appeared particularly prone to trade off other traits for dominance in the violence scenario, and men particularly prone to trade off other traits for wealth in the poverty scenario. Our results are in line with other correlational studies of situational variables and mate preferences, and represent strong evidence of a causal relationship of environmental factors on specific mate preferences, corroborating the notion of an evolved plasticity to current ecological conditions. A control experiment seems to suggest that our scenarios can be considered as realistic descriptions of the intended ecological conditions.

  6. Environmental influences on mate preferences as assessed by a scenario manipulation experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Marzoli

    Full Text Available Many evolutionary psychology studies have addressed the topic of mate preferences, focusing particularly on gender and cultural differences. However, the extent to which situational and environmental variables might affect mate preferences has been comparatively neglected. We tested 288 participants in order to investigate the perceived relative importance of six traits of an ideal partner (wealth, dominance, intelligence, height, kindness, attractiveness under four different hypothetical scenarios (status quo/nowadays, violence/post-nuclear, poverty/resource exhaustion, prosperity/global well-being. An equal number of participants (36 women, 36 men was allotted to each scenario; each was asked to allocate 120 points across the six traits according to their perceived value. Overall, intelligence was the trait to which participants assigned most importance, followed by kindness and attractiveness, and then by wealth, dominance and height. Men appraised attractiveness as more valuable than women. Scenario strongly influenced the relative importance attributed to traits, the main finding being that wealth and dominance were more valued in the poverty and post-nuclear scenarios, respectively, compared to the other scenarios. Scenario manipulation generally had similar effects in both sexes, but women appeared particularly prone to trade off other traits for dominance in the violence scenario, and men particularly prone to trade off other traits for wealth in the poverty scenario. Our results are in line with other correlational studies of situational variables and mate preferences, and represent strong evidence of a causal relationship of environmental factors on specific mate preferences, corroborating the notion of an evolved plasticity to current ecological conditions. A control experiment seems to suggest that our scenarios can be considered as realistic descriptions of the intended ecological conditions.

  7. Complex variables

    CERN Document Server

    Fisher, Stephen D

    1999-01-01

    The most important topics in the theory and application of complex variables receive a thorough, coherent treatment in this introductory text. Intended for undergraduates or graduate students in science, mathematics, and engineering, this volume features hundreds of solved examples, exercises, and applications designed to foster a complete understanding of complex variables as well as an appreciation of their mathematical beauty and elegance. Prerequisites are minimal; a three-semester course in calculus will suffice to prepare students for discussions of these topics: the complex plane, basic

  8. Dictionary criticism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Sandro

    2018-01-01

    Dictionary criticism is part of the lexicographical universe and reviewing of electronic and printed dictionaries is not an exercise in linguistics or in subject fields but an exercise in lexicography. It does not follow from this that dictionary reviews should not be based on a linguistic approach......, but that the linguistic approach is only one of several approaches to dictionary reviewing. Similarly, the linguistic and factual competences of reviewers should not be relegated to an insignificant position in the review process. Moreover, reviewers should define the object of their reviews, the dictionary, as a complex...... information tool with several components and in terms of significant lexicographical features: lexicographical functions, data and structures. This emphasises the fact that dictionaries are much more than mere vessels of linguistic categories, namely lexicographical tools that have been developed to fulfil...

  9. From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

    2015-12-01

    Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

  10. Hybrid Broadband Ground-Motion Simulation Using Scenario Earthquakes for the Istanbul Area

    KAUST Repository

    Reshi, Owais A.

    2016-04-13

    Seismic design, analysis and retrofitting of structures demand an intensive assessment of potential ground motions in seismically active regions. Peak ground motions and frequency content of seismic excitations effectively influence the behavior of structures. In regions of sparse ground motion records, ground-motion simulations provide the synthetic seismic records, which not only provide insight into the mechanisms of earthquakes but also help in improving some aspects of earthquake engineering. Broadband ground-motion simulation methods typically utilize physics-based modeling of source and path effects at low frequencies coupled with high frequency semi-stochastic methods. I apply the hybrid simulation method by Mai et al. (2010) to model several scenario earthquakes in the Marmara Sea, an area of high seismic hazard. Simulated ground motions were generated at 75 stations using systematically calibrated model parameters. The region-specific source, path and site model parameters were calibrated by simulating a w4.1 Marmara Sea earthquake that occurred on November 16, 2015 on the fault segment in the vicinity of Istanbul. The calibrated parameters were then used to simulate the scenario earthquakes with magnitudes w6.0, w6.25, w6.5 and w6.75 over the Marmara Sea fault. Effects of fault geometry, hypocenter location, slip distribution and rupture propagation were thoroughly studied to understand variability in ground motions. A rigorous analysis of waveforms reveal that these parameters are critical for determining the behavior of ground motions especially in the near-field. Comparison of simulated ground motion intensities with ground-motion prediction quations indicates the need of development of the region-specific ground-motion prediction equation for Istanbul area. Peak ground motion maps are presented to illustrate the shaking in the Istanbul area due to the scenario earthquakes. The southern part of Istanbul including Princes Islands show high amplitudes

  11. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

  12. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Hertwich, Edgar G; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO 2 -eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO 2 -eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120–140 Tg CO 2 -eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power. (letter)

  13. Regional scenario building as a tool to support vulnerability assessment of food & water security and livelihood conditions under varying natural resources managements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhardt, Julia; Liersch, Stefan; Dickens, Chris; Kabaseke, Clovis; Mulugeta Lemenih, Kassaye; Sghaier, Mongi; Hattermann, Fred

    2013-04-01

    state and availability of natural resources. Major concerns in all CS are the fast growing populations and natural resources degradation because of unsustainable natural resource management. Land use and resource competition are a consequence of unclear land tenure systems and limited resources availability. Scarce rainfall with high annual variability causes food insecurity if yield failures cannot be compensated, e.g. because of lacking financial resources. In all case studies critical uncertainties were identified to be more or less related to "poor governance". Missing governmental and political stability and effectiveness as well as corruption hamper the implementation of laws and policies related to natural resource management. Other critical uncertainties lie in the social domain. They are either related to demographic patterns like emigration or immigration varying the pressure on natural resources use or to the society in general like the evolvement of people's environmental awareness or voice and accountability. Methodological outcomes of the scenario building were that the complexity of the process requires the use of reliable and powerful tools to support the communication process. Concept maps were found to be a useful tool in this regard.

  14. Key drivers and economic consequences of high-end climate scenarios: uncertainties and risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Drews, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The consequences of high-end climate scenarios and the risks of extreme events involve a number of critical assumptions and methodological challenges related to key uncertainties in climate scenarios and modelling, impact analysis, and economics. A methodological framework for integrated analysis...... of extreme events increase beyond scaling, and in combination with economic assumptions we find a very wide range of risk estimates for urban precipitation events. A sensitivity analysis addresses 32 combinations of climate scenarios, damage cost curve approaches, and economic assumptions, including risk...... aversion and equity represented by discount rates. Major impacts of alternative assumptions are investigated. As a result, this study demonstrates that in terms of decision making the actual expectations concerning future climate scenarios and the economic assumptions applied are very important...

  15. ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Antonio Conejero

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios depicting targets concerning mandatory bio-fuel blending are critical to the strategic planning of food and bio-energy production chains and their design is the purpose of this paper. Each scenario tells a story about how various elements might interact under given conditions. The method herein utilized is primarily based on Schoemaker´s (1995 and Schwartz´s (1991 earlier proposals. A six step framework is followed: i identify the focal issue; ii summarize current mandatory blending targets; iii identify the driving forces as of a macro-environmental analysis; iv validate driving forces with specialists; v rank such key forces by importance before uncertainties, building a correlation matrix; vi design the scenarios. Finally, three alternative scenarios, relative to the adoption on behalf of countries, by the year 2020, of mandatory bio-fuel blending targets, are proposed which might guide these countries’ decision makers when planning production systems.

  16. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  17. The impact of power negotiations on nursing students learning processes in simulation scenario debriefing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Anne; Topperzer, Martha; Sejr Olsen, Pernille

    element to obtain critical reflection and learning (3). During debriefing students and facilitators jointly explore what happened in the scenario, and what should be focus of the prospective learning process (4). The aim of this paper is to explore how the negotiations of power (5) in the simulation...... scenario debriefing have an impact on the learning process for novice nursing students. References: Zapko et al 2015: Interdisciplinary Disaster Drill Simulation: Laying the Groundwork for further Research. Nurse Education Perspective Nov. Dec. 36(6):379-82 Motola et al 2013: Simulation in healthcare......Clinical simulation in nursing improves student`s ability to critical thinking, clinical judgement and clinical decision- making(1). The key elements to success are planning, pre- briefing, engagement, a realistic scenario with interruptions and debriefing (2). Debriefing is highlighted as the key...

  18. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  19. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  20. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    Mr. Jensen sits at the computer in his office wondering what to cook for dinner. He browses through the web site of his usual supermarket. Today's menu is fish. He skims the recipe that also informs him when, where and how the fish was caught. The fish is quite expensive but it has a story to tel...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...

  1. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  2. Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Dias Blois

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

  3. Analysis of the thermomechanical behavior of the IFMIF bayonet target assembly under design loading scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernardi, D., E-mail: davide.bernardi@enea.it [ENEA Brasimone, Camugnano, BO (Italy); Arena, P.; Bongiovì, G.; Di Maio, P.A. [Dipartimento di Energia, Ingegneria dell’Informazione e Modelli Matematici, Università di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, Palermo (Italy); Frisoni, M. [ENEA Bologna, Via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, Bologna (Italy); Miccichè, G.; Serra, M. [ENEA Brasimone, Camugnano, BO (Italy)

    2015-10-15

    In the framework of the IFMIF Engineering Validation and Engineering Design Activities (IFMIF/EVEDA) phase, ENEA is responsible for the design of the European concept of the IFMIF lithium target system which foresees the possibility to periodically replace only the most irradiated and thus critical component (i.e., the backplate) while continuing to operate the rest of the target for a longer period (the so-called bayonet backplate concept). In this work, the results of the steady state thermomechanical analysis of the IFMIF bayonet target assembly under two different design loading scenarios (a “hot” scenario and a “cold” scenario) are briefly reported highlighting the relevant indications obtained with respect to the fulfillment of the design requirements. In particular, the analyses have shown that in the hot scenario the temperatures reached in the target assembly are within the material acceptable limits while in the cold scenario transition below the ductile to brittle transition temperature (DBTT) cannot be excluded. Moreover, results indicate that the contact between backplate and high flux test module is avoided and that the overall structural integrity of the system is assured in both scenarios. However, stress linearization analysis reveals that ITER Structural Design Criteria for In-vessel Components (SDC-IC) design rules are not always met along the selected paths at backplate middle plane section in the hot scenario, thus suggesting the need of a revision of the backplate design or a change of the operating conditions.

  4. Radio Propagation Analysis of Industrial Scenarios within the Context of Ultra-Reliable Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wassie, Dereje Assefa; Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Berardinelli, Gilberto

    2018-01-01

    One of the 5G use cases, known as ultra-reliable communication (URC), is expected to support very low packet error rate on the order of 10^(−5) with a 1 ms latency. In an industrial scenario, this would make possible replacing wired connections with wireless for controlling critical processes...

  5. Assessing the Psychometric Properties of a Scenario-Based Measure of Achievement Guilt and Shame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ted; Sharp, Jessica; Alexander, James

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the psychometric properties of the scenario-based Achievement Guilt and Shame Scale (AGSS) were established. The AGSS and scales assessing interpersonal guilt and shame, high standards, overgeneralization, self-criticism, self-esteem, academic self-concept, fear of failure, and tendency to respond in a socially desirable manner were…

  6. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

    2015-11-01

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

  7. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

  8. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

  9. KTM Tokamak operation scenarios software infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pavlov, V.; Baystrukov, K.; Golobkov, YU.; Ovchinnikov, A.; Meaentsev, A.; Merkulov, S.; Lee, A. [National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Tazhibayeva, I.; Shapovalov, G. [National Nuclear Center (NNC), Kurchatov (Kazakhstan)

    2014-10-15

    One of the largest problems for tokamak devices such as Kazakhstan Tokamak for Material Testing (KTM) is the operation scenarios' development and execution. Operation scenarios may be varied often, so a convenient hardware and software solution is required for scenario management and execution. Dozens of diagnostic and control subsystems with numerous configuration settings may be used in an experiment, so it is required to automate the subsystem configuration process to coordinate changes of the related settings and to prevent errors. Most of the diagnostic and control subsystems software at KTM was unified using an extra software layer, describing the hardware abstraction interface. The experiment sequence was described using a command language. The whole infrastructure was brought together by a universal communication protocol supporting various media, including Ethernet and serial links. The operation sequence execution infrastructure was used at KTM to carry out plasma experiments.

  10. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  11. Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

    2009-10-01

    The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

  12. The Impact of Gamification - Recommending Education Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Erenli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Many students play (computer games in their leisure time, thus acquiring skills which can easily be utilized when it comes to teaching more sophisticated knowledge. Nevertheless many educators today are wasting this opportunity. Some have evaluated gaming scenarios and methods for teaching students and have created the term “gamification”. This paper describes the history of this new term and explains the possible impact on teaching. It will take well-researched facts into consideration to discuss the potential of games. Moreover, scenarios will be illustrated and evaluated for educators to adopt and use on their own.

  13. The other radios: Alternative scenario in Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Rivadeneyra-Olcese

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Peruvian radio shows a huge diversity in direct proportion to its multiculturality, the same which shows a process full of different influences of social actor which have produced a complex and extremely rich scenario, that is also filled with opportunities and challenges. Beyond the great capital commercial radio are the other radios, small companies, provincial, from church or the mayor or small business owners sons of folkloric melomania, different actors with a passion to establish a new media. The multiple motivations produce a scenario with many types of radio that we wishes to start knowing.

  14. Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Somoza-Cabrera

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.

  15. Development process and initial validation of the Ethical Conflict in Nursing Questionnaire-Critical Care Version.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcó-Pegueroles, Anna; Lluch-Canut, Teresa; Guàrdia-Olmos, Joan

    2013-06-01

    Ethical conflicts are arising as a result of the growing complexity of clinical care, coupled with technological advances. Most studies that have developed instruments for measuring ethical conflict base their measures on the variables 'frequency' and 'degree of conflict'. In our view, however, these variables are insufficient for explaining the root of ethical conflicts. Consequently, the present study formulates a conceptual model that also includes the variable 'exposure to conflict', as well as considering six 'types of ethical conflict'. An instrument was then designed to measure the ethical conflicts experienced by nurses who work with critical care patients. The paper describes the development process and validation of this instrument, the Ethical Conflict in Nursing Questionnaire Critical Care Version (ECNQ-CCV). The sample comprised 205 nursing professionals from the critical care units of two hospitals in Barcelona (Spain). The ECNQ-CCV presents 19 nursing scenarios with the potential to produce ethical conflict in the critical care setting. Exposure to ethical conflict was assessed by means of the Index of Exposure to Ethical Conflict (IEEC), a specific index developed to provide a reference value for each respondent by combining the intensity and frequency of occurrence of each scenario featured in the ECNQ-CCV. Following content validity, construct validity was assessed by means of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), while Cronbach's alpha was used to evaluate the instrument's reliability. All analyses were performed using the statistical software PASW v19. Cronbach's alpha for the ECNQ-CCV as a whole was 0.882, which is higher than the values reported for certain other related instruments. The EFA suggested a unidimensional structure, with one component accounting for 33.41% of the explained variance. The ECNQ-CCV is shown to a valid and reliable instrument for use in critical care units. Its structure is such that the four variables on which our model

  16. Third generation algae biofuels in Italy by 2030: A scenario analysis using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambelli, Danilo; Alberti, Francesca; Solfanelli, Francesco; Vairo, Daniela; Zanoli, Raffaele

    2017-01-01

    We have analysed the potential for biofuels from microalgae in the Italian biofuels context. This scenario analysis considers alternative pathways for the adoption of biofuels from microalgae by the year 2030. The scenarios were developed using a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks, through a structured process for elicitation of expert knowledge. We have identified the most and least favourable scenarios in terms of the expected likelihood for the development of the market of biofuels from microalgae, through which we have focussed on the contribution of economic and policy aspects in the development of the sector. A detailed analysis of the contribution of each variable in the context of the scenarios is also provided. These data represent a starting point for the evaluation of different policy options for the future biofuel market in Italy. The best scenario shows a 75% probability that biofuels from microalgae will exceed 20% of the biofuel market by 2030. This is conditional on the improvement and development of the technological changes and environmental policies, and of the markets for bioenergy and novel foods derived from microalgae. - Highlights: • Scenarios for Third generation biofuels are modelled by Bayesian networks. • Best and worst scenarios for year 2030 are presented. • The role of environmental policy is analysed. • Energy and food-feed markets influence the share of biofuels from micro-algae.

  17. The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W

    1998-03-01

    Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10{sup 4} years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

  18. The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W.

    1998-03-01

    Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10 4 years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

  19. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  20. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  1. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  2. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  3. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

  4. Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-10-15

    As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

  5. SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qi, L.; Hao, J.; Lu, M.

    1995-01-01

    Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO 2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on the eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. 'Optimistic', 'Pessimistic' and 'Business as Usual' scenarios were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO 2 emission from 1990 to 2020. A 'Top-down' approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO 2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO 2 control situation. Emission level for each 1 degree longitude x 1 degree latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO 2 sources. The results show that SO 2 emission in China will increase rapidly, if the current situation for energy saving and SO 2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010. Realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. The share of eastern China in the country's total emission would increase until 2000, while the general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of the whole country. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  6. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  7. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  8. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  9. Probabilistic results for a mobile service scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Yiu, Man Lung

    We consider the following stochastic model for a mobile service scenario. Consider a stationary Poisson process in Rd, with its points radially ordered with respect to the origin (the anchor); if d = 2, the points may correspond to locations of e.g. restaurants. A user, with a location different...

  10. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  11. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  12. Forlic deliverable 5.1: Persona scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gijsbers, Govert; Leendertse, Matthijs; Leis, Miriam; Kirschner, Paul A.; Hoogveld, Bert; Stoyanov, Slavi; Weber, Mark

    2015-01-01

    This document describes nine persona scenarios. The outcomes of a group concept mapping (GCM) exercise were used as input to create nine personas. The basic data for each persona contains demographic information, its position in a three by three persona matrix, and an overview of the relevant

  13. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  14. Scenario study on the FBR deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

    2000-12-01

    This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

  15. Integration of software for scenario exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

    1999-03-01

    The scenario exploration methodology using shadow models is a variation of the environmental simulation method. Key aspect of the scenario exploration is the use of shadow models which are not corresponding to any specific assumptions on physical processes and, instead, abstract their general features relevant to the effects on nuclide transport in a general manner so that benefit of using simulation approach can be maximized. In developing the shadow models, all the modelling options that have not yet been denied by the experts are kept and parametrized in a very general framework. This, in turn, enables one to treat various types of the uncertainty in performance assessment, i.e., scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, in a common framework of uncertainty / sensitivity analysis. Objective of the current study is to review / modify the tools which have been developed separately and, thence, not fully consistent from one to the other and to integrate them into a unified methodology and software. Tasks for this are; 1. modification / integration of tools for scenario exploration of nuclide transport in the EBS and the near-field host rock, 2. verification of the software modified and integrated, 3. installation of the software at JNC. (author)

  16. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  17. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  18. International scenarios of the Venezuelan oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoso, Felipe; Irsay, Jorge E.

    1999-01-01

    The times of stability of the energy business, which characterized the 50s and the 60s came to their end in the 70s. From that moment on, new times have become times of quick changes and high uncertainty. In order to minimize the impact of the surprises that the future may bring, and so decrease the managers' decision making risk, many companies use the scenario planning process. The end purpose of scenario planning is the creation of an organization that will adapted to changes, a learning organization, that is able to identify the business environment un knows and to use this knowledge as one of its advantages. The present article shows the scenarios generated for the Venezuelan oil industry's strategic planning exercise for the 1999-2015 period. Theses scenarios are Consensus and Harmony, Regions and Environment, Conflicts and Decadence and Pragmatic Community. It is concluded from them that oil business success would be supported by differentiation as a secure, trusted and low cost producer; early oil and gas opportunities identification; Hemispherical integration and/or bilateral commercial agreements; oil and gas business portfolio diversification; and diversification to state-of-the-art technologies for renewable forms of energy

  19. Scenarios of land cover in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

    2007-02-01

    A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

  20. Scenario evaluation of open pond microalgae production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slegers, P.M.; Lösing, M.B.; Wijffels, R.H.; Straten, van G.; Boxtel, van A.J.B.

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate microalgae production in large scale open ponds under different climatologic conditions, a model-based framework is used to study the effect of light conditions, water temperature and reactor design on trends in algae productivity. Scenario analyses have been done for two algae species

  1. Blindness to alternative scenarios in evidence evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.G.C. Rassin (Eric)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractIn order to prevent miscarriages of justice, police, prosecution, and judges must remain open to alternative scenarios in which the suspect is in fact innocent. In recent years, however, several studies have delivered results suggesting that open-mindedness is not always standard in

  2. Solution space diagram in conflict detection scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahman, S.M.A.; Borst, C.; Mulder, M.; Van Paassen, M.M.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates the use of Solution Space Diagram (SSD) as a measure of sector complexity and also as a predictor of performance and workload, focusing on the scenarios regarding Air Traffic Controller (ATCO)’s ability to detect future conflicts. A human-in-the-loop experiment with

  3. No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

  4. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social

  5. Effect of a high-end CO2-emission scenario on hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida Bjørnholt; Sonnenborg, Torben Obel; Seaby, Lauren Paige

    2015-01-01

    and the less extreme RCP4.5 emission scenario are evaluated for the future period 2071−2099. The downscaled climate variables are applied to a fully distributed, physically based, coupled surface−subsurface hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE model code. The impacts on soil moisture dynamics...

  6. CLASS: Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mouginot, B.; Thiolliere, N.

    2015-01-01

    The nuclear reactor simulation community has to perform complex electronuclear scenario simulations. To avoid constraints coming from the existing powerful scenario software such as COSI, VISION or FAMILY, the open source Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulation (CLASS) has been developed. The main asset of CLASS is its ability to include any type of reactor, whether the system is innovative or standard. A reactor is fully described by its evolution database which should contain a set of different validated fuel compositions in order to simulate transitional scenarios. CLASS aims to be a useful tool to study scenarios involving Generation-IV reactors as well as innovative fuel cycles, like the thorium cycle. In addition to all standard key objects required by an electronuclear scenario simulation (the isotopic vector, the reactor, the fuel storage and the fabrication units), CLASS also integrates two new specific modules: fresh fuel evolution and recycled fuel fabrication. The first module, dealing with fresh fuel evolution, is implemented in CLASS by solving Bateman equations built from a database induced cross-sections. The second module, which incorporates the fabrication of recycled fuel to CLASS, can be defined by user priorities and/or algorithms. By default, it uses a linear Pu equivalent-method, which allows predicting, from the isotopic composition, the maximum burn-up accessible for a set type of fuel. This paper presents the basis of the CLASS scenario, the fuel method applied to a MOX fuel and an evolution module benchmark based on the French electronuclear fleet from 1977 to 2012. Results of the CLASS calculation were compared with the inventory made and published by the ANDRA organisation in 2012. For UOX used fuels, the ANDRA reported 12006 tonnes of heavy metal in stock, including cooling, versus 18500 tonnes of heavy metal predicted by CLASS. The large difference is easily explained by the presence of 56 tonnes of plutonium already separated

  7. Complex variables

    CERN Document Server

    Flanigan, Francis J

    2010-01-01

    A caution to mathematics professors: Complex Variables does not follow conventional outlines of course material. One reviewer noting its originality wrote: ""A standard text is often preferred [to a superior text like this] because the professor knows the order of topics and the problems, and doesn't really have to pay attention to the text. He can go to class without preparation."" Not so here-Dr. Flanigan treats this most important field of contemporary mathematics in a most unusual way. While all the material for an advanced undergraduate or first-year graduate course is covered, discussion

  8. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

  9. Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

  10. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  11. Critical Phenomena in Gravitational Collapse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gundlach Carsten

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available As first discovered by Choptuik, the black hole threshold in the space of initial data for general relativity shows both surprising structure and surprising simplicity. Universality, power-law scaling of the black hole mass, and scale echoing have given rise to the term 'critical phenomena'. They are explained by the existence of exact solutions which are attractors within the black hole threshold, that is, attractors of codimension one in phase space, and which are typically self-similar. This review gives an introduction to the phenomena, tries to summarize the essential features of what is happening, and then presents extensions and applications of this basic scenario. Critical phenomena are of interest particularly for creating surprising structure from simple equations, and for the light they throw on cosmic censorship and the generic dynamics of general relativity.

  12. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M

    2009-01-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  13. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  14. Examining Preservice Science Teachers' Skills of Formulating Hypotheses and Identifying Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydogdu, Bülent

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine preservice science teachers' skills of formulating hypotheses and identifying variables. The research has a phenomenological research design. The data was gathered qualitatively. In this study, preservice science teachers were first given two scenarios (Scenario-1 & Scenario-2) containing two different…

  15. The land/ocean temperature contrast in natural variability

    OpenAIRE

    Tyrrell, Nicholas Luke

    2017-01-01

    In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures (T_land) warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/ocean warming temperature contrast. This land/ocean contrast is not only due to the different heat capacities of the land and ocean as it exists for transient and equilibrium scenarios. Similarly, the interannual variability of T_land is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/ocean ...

  16. Attachment Theory in Supervision: A Critical Incident Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pistole, M. Carole; Fitch, Jenelle C.

    2008-01-01

    Critical incident experiences are a powerful source of counselor development (T. M. Skovholt & P. R. McCarthy, 1988a, 1988b) and are relevant to attachment issues. An attachment theory perspective of supervision is presented and applied to a critical incident case scenario. By focusing on the behavioral systems (i.e., attachment, caregiving, and…

  17. Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

    2017-12-01

    Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

  18. Theoretically exploring direct and indirect chemical effects across ecological and exposure scenarios using mechanistic fate and effects modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laender, de F.; Morselli, M.; Baveco, H.; Brink, van den P.J.; Guardo, Di A.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting ecosystem response to chemicals is a complex problem in ecotoxicology and a challenge for risk assessors. The variables potentially influencing chemical fate and exposure define the exposure scenario while the variables determining effects at the ecosystem level define the ecological

  19. A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

    1992-01-01

    The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

  20. Critical slowing down associated with regime shifts in the US housing market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Siew Ann

    2014-02-01

    Complex systems are described by a large number of variables with strong and nonlinear interactions. Such systems frequently undergo regime shifts. Combining insights from bifurcation theory in nonlinear dynamics and the theory of critical transitions in statistical physics, we know that critical slowing down and critical fluctuations occur close to such regime shifts. In this paper, we show how universal precursors expected from such critical transitions can be used to forecast regime shifts in the US housing market. In the housing permit, volume of homes sold and percentage of homes sold for gain data, we detected strong early warning signals associated with a sequence of coupled regime shifts, starting from a Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and ending with the Subprime Crisis in 2007-2008. Weaker signals of critical slowing down were also detected in the US housing market data during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2000-2001 Technology Bubble Crisis. Backed by various macroeconomic data, we propose a scenario whereby hot money flowing back into the US during the Asian Financial Crisis fueled the Technology Bubble. When the Technology Bubble collapsed in 2000-2001, the hot money then flowed into the US housing market, triggering the Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and an ensuing sequence of transitions. We showed how this sequence of couple transitions unfolded in space and in time over the whole of US.

  1. Bringing politics back into water planning scenarios in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Sara; Bouleau, Gabrielle; Treyer, Sébastien

    2014-10-01

    The shift from government to governance in European water policies conveys a pluralist conception of stakeholder participation in planning. This article argues that the current Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to the planning of natural resource use, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Environmental Agency (EEA) is at odds with a pluralistic conception. The DPSIR approach consists in constructing a single socio-environmental model to address a specific problem in water management, while paying no attention to the existence of conflicts surrounding the definition of the issue at hand, the social, political and spatial delimitation of that issue, and the translation of stakes in terms of quantitative variables. Scenarios produced in this process therefore explore a limited range of policies, i.e. those defining the problem in the same way, as illustrated here with the case of the Garonne River in France. This article presents an alternative method, combining knowledge in social science and natural determinisms to build contrasting socio-hydrological scenarios that do not share the same hypotheses regarding their respective key issues.

  2. Costa Rica Rainfall in Future Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo Rodriguez, R. A., Sr.; Amador, J. A.; Duran-Quesada, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Studies of intraseasonal and annual cycles of meteorological variables, using projections of climate change, are nowadays extremely important to improve regional socio-economic planning for countries. This is particularly true in Costa Rica, as Central America has been identified as a climate change hot spot. Today many of the economic activities in the region, especially those related to agriculture, tourism and hydroelectric power generation are linked to the seasonal cycle of precipitation. Changes in rainfall (mm/day) and in the diurnal temperature range (°C) for the periods 1950-2005 and 2006-2100 were investigated using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) constructed using the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5) data. Differences between the multi-model ensembles of the two prospective scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the retrospective baseline scenario were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion point of the climate change in the region and also suggests future drying conditions.

  3. Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration under a historical and future climate scenario in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qin; Yan, Changrong; Ju, Hui; Garré, Sarah

    2018-04-01

    Climate change is widely accepted to be one of the most critical problems faced by the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H Plain), which is a region in which there is an over-exploitation of groundwater and where future warmer and drought conditions might intensify crop water demand. In this study, the spatiotemporal patterns of ET0 and primary driving meteorological variables were investigated based on a historical and RCP 8.5 scenario daily data set from 40 weather stations over the 3H Plain using linear regression, spline interpolation method, a partial derivative analysis, and multivariate regression. The results indicated a negative trend in all the analysed periods (except spring) of the past 54 years of which only summer and the entire year were statistically significant ( p use of water resources and a sustainable agricultural production in the 3H Plain.

  4. Modeling Source Water TOC Using Hydroclimate Variables and Local Polynomial Regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samson, Carleigh C; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Summers, R Scott

    2016-04-19

    To control disinfection byproduct (DBP) formation in drinking water, an understanding of the source water total organic carbon (TOC) concentration variability can be critical. Previously, TOC concentrations in water treatment plant source waters have been modeled using streamflow data. However, the lack of streamflow data or unimpaired flow scenarios makes it difficult to model TOC. In addition, TOC variability under climate change further exacerbates the problem. Here we proposed a modeling approach based on local polynomial regression that uses climate, e.g. temperature, and land surface, e.g., soil moisture, variables as predictors of TOC concentration, obviating the need for streamflow. The local polynomial approach has the ability to capture non-Gaussian and nonlinear features that might be present in the relationships. The utility of the methodology is demonstrated using source water quality and climate data in three case study locations with surface source waters including river and reservoir sources. The models show good predictive skill in general at these locations, with lower skills at locations with the most anthropogenic influences in their streams. Source water TOC predictive models can provide water treatment utilities important information for making treatment decisions for DBP regulation compliance under future climate scenarios.

  5. Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Minjin; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, P.C.D.; Jaffe, Peter R.

    2016-01-01

    Despite 30 years of basin-wide nutrient-reduction efforts, severe hypoxia continues to be observed in the Chesapeake Bay. Here we demonstrate the critical influence of climate variability, interacting with accumulated nitrogen (N) over multidecades, on Susquehanna River dissolved nitrogen (DN) loads, known precursors of the hypoxia in the Bay. We used the process model LM3-TAN (Terrestrial and Aquatic Nitrogen), which is capable of capturing both seasonal and decadal-to-century changes in vegetation-soil-river N storage, and produced nine scenarios of DN-load distributions under different short-term scenarios of climate variability and extremes. We illustrate that after 1 to 3 yearlong dry spells, the likelihood of exceeding a threshold DN load (56 kt yr−1) increases by 40 to 65% due to flushing of N accumulated throughout the dry spells and altered microbial processes. Our analyses suggest that possible future increases in climate variability/extremes—specifically, high precipitation occurring after multiyear dry spells—could likely lead to high DN-load anomalies and hypoxia.

  6. FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhiy Nozhenko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

  7. Relevance of future snowfall level height in the Peruvian Andes for glacier loss in the 21st century under different emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauwecker, Simone; Kronenberg, Marlene; Rohrer, Mario; Huggel, Christian; Endries, Jason; Montoya, Nilton; Neukom, Raphael; Perry, Baker; Salzmann, Nadine; Schwarb, Manfred; Suarez, Wilson

    2017-04-01

    temperature plays a critical role for glacier mass budgets by determining the precipitation phase rather than by determining ablation. The approach suggested here relies on this stable connection and is therefore appropriate for detecting differences between both analysed emission scenarios. However, the model is simple and neglects or simplifies other relevant energy fluxes and important processes as well as further possible changes. In addition, the method does not consider future changes of further climate variables such as precipitation. Uncertainties of the approach are thus related to the simplification of numerous processes and fluxes. Nevertheless, the approach presented here may be a relatively robust alternative to other simple estimations of future glacier extents.

  8. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

    2006-07-01

    control systems, perpetrators will attempt to control and defeat automation systems, engineering access, control systems and protective systems implemented in today's critical infrastructures. Major systems such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems are likely targets for attack. Not all attack scenarios have the same expected frequency or consequence. The attacks will be directed and structured and thus, are not be characterized as random events when one considers failure probabilities. Attack types differ in their consequence as a function of the probability associated with various sub events in the presence of specific system configurations. Ideally, a series of generic scenarios can be identified for each of the major critical infrastructure (CI) sectors. A scenario-based approach to risk assessment allows decision makers to place financial and personnel resources in-place for attacks that truly matter: e.g. attacks that generate physical and economic damage. The use of scenario-based analysis allows risk reduction goals to be informed by more than consequence analysis alone. The key CI targets used in the present study were identified previously as part of a mid-level consequence analysis performed at INL by the Control System Security Program (CSSP) for the National Cyber Security Div. (NCSD) of the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS). This paper discusses the process for and results associated with the development of scenario-based cyber attacks upon control systems including the information and personnel requirements for scenario development. Challenges to scenario development including completeness and uncertainty characterization are discussed as well. Further, the scenario discussed herein, is one of a number of scenarios for infrastructures currently under review. (authors)

  9. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

    2006-01-01

    control systems, perpetrators will attempt to control and defeat automation systems, engineering access, control systems and protective systems implemented in today's critical infrastructures. Major systems such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems are likely targets for attack. Not all attack scenarios have the same expected frequency or consequence. The attacks will be directed and structured and thus, are not be characterized as random events when one considers failure probabilities. Attack types differ in their consequence as a function of the probability associated with various sub events in the presence of specific system configurations. Ideally, a series of generic scenarios can be identified for each of the major critical infrastructure (CI) sectors. A scenario-based approach to risk assessment allows decision makers to place financial and personnel resources in-place for attacks that truly matter: e.g. attacks that generate physical and economic damage. The use of scenario-based analysis allows risk reduction goals to be informed by more than consequence analysis alone. The key CI targets used in the present study were identified previously as part of a mid-level consequence analysis performed at INL by the Control System Security Program (CSSP) for the National Cyber Security Div. (NCSD) of the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS). This paper discusses the process for and results associated with the development of scenario-based cyber attacks upon control systems including the information and personnel requirements for scenario development. Challenges to scenario development including completeness and uncertainty characterization are discussed as well. Further, the scenario discussed herein, is one of a number of scenarios for infrastructures currently under review. (authors)

  10. Sustaining forest landscape connectivity under different land cover change scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubio, L.; Rodriguez-Freire, M.; Mateo-Sanchez, M. C.; Estreguil, C.; Saura, S.

    2012-11-01

    Managing forest landscapes to sustain functional connectivity is considered one of the key strategies to counteract the negative effects of climate and human-induced changes in forest species pools. With this objective, we evaluated whether a robust network of forest connecting elements can be identified so that it remains efficient when facing different types of potential land cover changes that may affect forest habitat networks and ecological fluxes. For this purpose we considered changes both in the forested areas and in the non-forest intervening landscape matrix. We combined some of the most recent developments in graph theory with models of land cover permeability and least-cost analysis through the forest landscape. We focused on a case of study covering the habitat of a forest dwelling bird (nuthatch, Sitta europaea) in the region of Galicia (NW Spain). Seven land-use change scenarios were analysed for their effects on connecting forest elements (patches and links): one was the simplest case in which the landscape is represented as a binary forest/non-forest pattern (and where matrix heterogeneity is disregarded), four scenarios in which forest lands were converted to other cover types (to scrubland due to wildfires, to extensive and intensive agriculture, and to urban areas), and two scenarios that only involved changes in the non-forested matrix (re naturalization and intensification). Our results show that while the network of connecting elements for the species was very robust to the conversion of the forest habitat patches to different cover types, the different change scenarios in the landscape matrix could more significantly weaken its long-term validity and effectiveness. This is particularly the case when most of the key connectivity providers for the nuthatch are located outside the protected areas or public forests in Galicia, where biodiversity-friendly measures might be more easily implemented. We discuss how the methodology can be applied to

  11. Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

    2014-05-01

    Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are

  12. Thermodynamics of gravitationally induced particle creation scenario in DGP braneworld

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jawad, Abdul; Rani, Shamaila; Rafique, Salman [COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Department of Mathematics, Lahore (Pakistan)

    2018-01-15

    In this paper, we discuss the thermodynamical analysis for gravitationally induced particle creation scenario in the framework of DGP braneworld model. For this purpose, we consider apparent horizon as the boundary of the universe. We take three types of entropy such as Bakenstein entropy, logarithmic corrected entropy and power law corrected entropy with ordinary creation rate Γ. We analyze the first law and generalized second law of thermodynamics analytically for these entropies which hold under some constraints. The behavior of total entropy in each case is also discussed which implies the validity of generalized second law of thermodynamics. Also, we check the thermodynamical equilibrium condition for two phases of creation rate, that is constant and variable Γ and found its vitality in all cases of entropy. (orig.)

  13. Thermodynamics of gravitationally induced particle creation scenario in DGP braneworld

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jawad, Abdul; Rani, Shamaila; Rafique, Salman

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss the thermodynamical analysis for gravitationally induced particle creation scenario in the framework of DGP braneworld model. For this purpose, we consider apparent horizon as the boundary of the universe. We take three types of entropy such as Bakenstein entropy, logarithmic corrected entropy and power law corrected entropy with ordinary creation rate Γ. We analyze the first law and generalized second law of thermodynamics analytically for these entropies which hold under some constraints. The behavior of total entropy in each case is also discussed which implies the validity of generalized second law of thermodynamics. Also, we check the thermodynamical equilibrium condition for two phases of creation rate, that is constant and variable Γ and found its vitality in all cases of entropy. (orig.)

  14. Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, B.; Wun, N.; Scott, D.; Barrow, E.

    2003-01-01

    A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

  15. Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

  16. Future demand scenarios of Bangladesh power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain; Boie, Wulf; Denich, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    Data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system. The purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in Bangladesh, forecast sector-wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005, and compare the results with official projections. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with three scenarios, namely low gross domestic product (GDP) growth, average GDP growth and high GDP growth, is applied in this study. In the low to high GDP growth scenarios, the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased. The findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. The study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in Bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries. Such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in Bangladesh to meet the high future demand.

  17. U. S. electricity shortfall: three scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanderslice, T.A.

    1979-01-01

    Scenarios in which no nuclear-generating capacity is added between 1981 and 1985 and the goal of doubling coal utilization is only 50% successful show electric power shortfalls over most of the U.S. by 1985, with the industrial central regions the hardest hit. Since conservation alone cannot carry the nation through a transition from oil dependence to coal and nuclear, the author stresses the importance of identifying the consequences of such a shortfall. General Electric's scenarios are projected for shortfalls in energy supply, electric power, and oil and natural gas to determine the effect on gross national product, business investment, production growth, inflation foreign exchange rates, and employment levels. Near-term crises in power plant shortages are indicated by the energy models.

  18. The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

  19. Scenarios for the Strategic Planning of Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker Grienitz

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporations need to develop strategies that match their manufacturing resources as well as products with the markets requirements. Technology scenarios represent a holistic approach for managing innovation processes and technologies efficiently. A multidimensional requirement catalogue for specific product- market- combinations represents the fundamental building block for the ranking of particular material- components and technologies. The following analysis through evolutionary algorithms for compatibility between and amongst them provides the necessary information about their suitability. The resulting scenarios and roadmap and a regular monitoring process are prerequisite for the managerial decision making process and the implementation technology strategies.

  20. Analysis of long-term energy scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemming, J.; Morthorst, P.E.

    1998-09-01

    When addressing the role of fusion energy in the 21. century, the evaluation of possible future structures in the electricity market and the energy sector as a whole, can be a useful tool. Because fusion energy still needs demonstration, commercialized fusion energy is not likely to be a reality within the next few decades. Therefore long-term scenarios are needed describing the energy markets, which fusion energy eventually will be part of. This report performs an analysis of two of the most detailed existing long-term scenarios describing possible futures of the energy system. The aim is to clarify the frames in which the future development of the global energy demand, as well as the structure of the energy system can be expected to develop towards the year 2100. (au) 19 refs.

  1. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  2. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

  3. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  4. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

  5. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

  6. BIOMOVS test scenario model comparison using BIOPATH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.A.; Van Dorp, F.

    1986-07-01

    This report presents the results of the irrigation test scenario, presented in the BIOMOVS intercomparison study, calculated by the computer code BIOPATH. This scenario defines a constant release of Tc-99 and Np-237 into groundwater that is used for irrigation. The system of compartments used to model the biosphere is based upon an area in northern Switzerland and is essentially the same as that used in Projekt Gewaehr to assess the radiological impact of a high level waste repository. Two separate irrigation methods are considered, namely ditch and overhead irrigation. Their influence on the resultant activities calculated in the groundwater, soil and different foodproducts, as a function of time, is evaluated. The sensitivity of the model to parameter variations is analysed which allows a deeper understanding of the model chain. These results are assessed subjectively in a first effort to realistically quantify the uncertainty associated with each calculated activity. (author)

  7. Cold dark matter in brane cosmology scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahab, Eiman Abou El; Khalil, Shaaban

    2006-01-01

    We analyze the dark matter problem in the context of brane cosmology. We investigate the impact of the non-conventional brane cosmology on the relic abundance of non-relativistic stable particles in high and low reheating temperature scenarios. We show that in case of high reheating temperature, the brane cosmology may enhance the dark matter relic density by many order of magnitudes and a stringent lower bound on the five dimensional scale is obtained. We also consider low reheating temperature scenarios with chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium. We emphasize that in non-equilibrium case, the resulting relic density is very small. While with equilibrium, it is increased by a factor of O(10 2 ) with respect to the standard thermal production. Therefore, dark matter particles with large cross section, which is favored by detection expirements, can be consistent with the recent relic density observational limits

  8. TIBER engineering test reactor (ETR) startup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackfield, D.T.; Perkins, L.J.

    1987-01-01

    A time-dependent Tokamak Systems Code (TTSC) has been developed and used to examine various inductively driven startup scenarios for the TIBER reactor. Radially averaged particle and energy balance equations are solved. In addition, time varying currents in the PF and OH coils are determined from MHD equilibrium and volt-seconds considerations. Less than 20 MW of auxiliary power deposited in the electrons is required to obtain steady-state operations. For this scenario, less than 10% of the total volt-seconds capability is consumed during startup and the currents in the PF and OH coils do not appear to exceed stress limits. For every volt-second saved during startup, the burn time can be extended 14 seconds. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  9. Extreme scenarios for nuclear waste repositories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M J [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (USA). Div. of Applied Sciences; Crouch, E [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (USA). Energy and Environmental Policy Center

    1982-09-01

    Two extreme scenarios for release of radioactive waste have been constructed. In the first, a volcanic eruption releases 1 km/sup 2/ of an underground nuclear waste repository, while in the second, waste enters the drinking water reservoir of a major city. With pessimistic assumptions, upper bounds on the number of cancers due to radiation are calculated. In the volcano scenario, the effects of the waste are smaller than the effects of natural radioactivity in the volcanic dust if the delay between emplacement and eruption exceeds 2000 yr. The consequences of the waste in drinking water depend on the survival time of the canisters and the rate of leaching of the nuclides from the waste matrix. For a canister life of 400 yr and a leach time of 6300 yr the cancer rate in the affected area would increase by 25%.

  10. Extreme scenarios for nuclear waste repositories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M J; Crouch, E

    1982-09-01

    Two extreme scenarios for release of radioactive waste have been constructed. In the first, a volcanic eruption releases 1 km2 of an underground nuclear waste repository, while in the second, waste enters the drinking water reservoir of a major city. With pessimistic assumptions, upper bounds on the number of cancers due to radiation are calculated. In the volcano scenario, the effects of the water are smaller than the effects of natural radioactivity in the volcanic dust if the delay between emplacement and eruption exceeds 2000 yr. The consequences of the waste in drinking water depend on the survival time of the canisters and the rate of leaching of the nuclides from the waste matrix. For a canister life of 400 yr and a leach time of 6300 yr the cancer rate in the affected area would increase by 25%.

  11. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M; Ahmed, Rami

    2016-01-01

    Necrotizing fasciitis?(NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes.

  12. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M; Ahmed, Rami

    2016-08-31

    Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes.

  13. The climatic scenario of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deque, M.

    2007-01-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  14. Scenarios for the Electrification of Transport

    OpenAIRE

    Kanudia , Amit; Gastineau , Pascal; BACHMANN , Till; PREISS , Philipp; STOFFREGEN , Alexander; VINOT , Simon; CHEZE , Benoît; Tchung-Ming , Stéphane; BOUVART , Frédérique

    2015-01-01

    SCelecTRA - Scenarios for the electrification of Transport is a collaborative project under the ERANET - Electromobility+ call for project and aims at: · identifying the conditions and public policies actions to develop road passenger electromobility in Europe for 2030, · assessing the environmental impacts of such policies via consequential Life Cycle Analysis as well as their external costs.; Sélectionné dans le cadre du programme ERANET- Electromobility+, le projet visait à identifier les ...

  15. A Note on Scenarios of Metastable Water

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jirsák, Jan; Nezbeda, Ivo

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 75, č. 5 (2010), s. 593-605 ISSN 0010-0765 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA400720802; GA AV ČR IAA200760905; GA AV ČR IAA400720710 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40720504 Keywords : metastable water * spinodal * scenarios Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 0.853, year: 2010

  16. Internal wave attractors: different scenarios of instability

    OpenAIRE

    Brouzet, Christophe; Ermanyuk, E. V.; Joubaud, Sylvain; Pillet, Grimaud; Dauxois, Thierry

    2017-01-01

    International audience; This paper presents an experimental study of different instability scenarios in a parallelogram-shaped internal wave attractor in a trapezoidal domain filled with a uniformly stratified fluid.Energy is injected into the system via the oscillatory motion of a vertical wall of the trapezoidal domain. Whole-field velocity measurements are performed with the conventional PIV technique. In the linear regime, the total kinetic energyof the fluid system is used to quantify th...

  17. Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios The WEA Project Team May 2012 SPECIAL REPORT CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 CERT® Division, Software ...Homeland Security under Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0003 with Carnegie Mellon University for the operation of the Software Engineering Institute, a federally...DISTRIBUTES IT “AS IS.” References herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trade mark, manufacturer, or otherwise

  18. Investment scenarios for Chinese power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    An analysis is provided of returns for investment in power plants in China and India. Three sample investment scenarios are compared to illustrate the relative merits of each financing arrangement. The best returns would seem to be offered by a mix of debt and equity financing. The potential problem of gradual currency depreciation can be overcome by early cash payments. Foreign investment in China's power generation industry would be more readily forthcoming if easier access to debt finance were available. (UK)

  19. Scenarios as methods of Community Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2002-01-01

    The significance of the scenario workshop is the combination of creativity, reflection and action helping the participants to imaging and realise desirable futures. It can contribute to fill the gaps between visions of the future and the present situation, giving the participants knowledge and po...... and power to act themselves instead of just being passively adjusted to the ongoing changes of their organisation or community....

  20. Future scenarios for viticultural bioclimatic indices in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, João.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Fraga, Helder; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2010-05-01

    Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European countries. Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is one of the main conditioning factors of this activity. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for wine production. In this study, we compute climatic indices (concerning to thermal and hydrological conditions) for Europe, characterize regions with different viticultural aptitude, and assess possible variations in these regions under a future climate conditions using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (mostly daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) obtained from the NCEP reanalysis dataset. Then, the same indices are calculated for present and future climate conditions using data from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small Scale Modelling - Climate Limited-area Modelling). Maps of theses indices for recent-past periods (1961-2008) and for the SRES A1B scenario are considered in order to identify significant changes in their patterns. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant negative impact in wine quality by increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during growing seasons in Southern European regions (e.g. Portugal, Spain and Italy). These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making crucial adaptation/mitigation strategies to be adopted. On the other hand, regions of western and central Europe (e.g. southern Britain, northern France and Germany) will benefit from this scenario both in wine quality, and in new potential areas for viticulture. This approach provides a macro-characterization of European areas where grapevines may preferentially grow, as well as their projected changes

  1. An Evaluation of Navy En Route Care Training Using a High-Fidelity Medical Simulation Scenario of Interfacility Patient Transport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeForest, Christine A; Blackman, Virginia; Alex, John E; Reeves, Lauren; Mora, Alejandra; Perez, Crystal; Maddry, Joseph; Selby, Domenique; Walrath, Benjamin

    2018-03-14

    Military prehospital and en route care (ERC) directly impacts patient morbidity and mortality. Provider knowledge and skills are critical variables in the effectiveness of ERC. No Navy doctrine defines provider choice for patient transport or requires standardized provider training. Frequently, Search and Rescue Medical Technicians (SMTs) and Navy Nurses (ERC RNs) are tasked with this mission though physicians have also been used. Navy ERC provider training varies greatly by professional role. Historically, evaluations of ERC and patient outcomes have been based on retrospective analyses of incomplete data sets that provide limited insight on ERC practices. Little evidence exists to determine if current training is adequate to care for the most common injuries seen in combat trauma patients. Simulation technology facilitates a standardized patient encounter to enable complete, prospective data collection while studying provider type as the independent variable. Information acquired through skill performance observation can be used to make evidence-based recommendations to improve ERC training. This IRB approved multi-center study funded through a Congressionally Directed Medical Research Program grant from the Combat Casualty Care Intramural Research Joint En Route Care portfolio evaluated Navy ERC providers. The study evaluated 84 SMT, ERC RN, and physician participants in the performance of critical and secondary actions during an immersive, high-fidelity, patient transport simulation scenario focused on the care during an interfacility transfer. Simulation evaluators with military ERC expertise, blinded to participant training and background, graded each participant's performance. Inter-rater reliability was calculated using Cohen's Kappa to evaluate concordance between evaluator assessments. Categorical data were reported as frequencies and percentages. Performance attempt and accuracy rates were compared with likelihood ratio chi-square or Fisher's exact test

  2. Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-03-31

    IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

    2018-03-06

    The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

  4. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  5. Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinar......'s contribution is to suggest how scenario planning can engage with design, resulting in new opportunities for research and projects. These modes of engagement provide a framing to explore dialogues between other management disciplines.......This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinary...... management research, which struggles to connect research and practice. The authors describe how they brought the two fields together. We outline how we convened, designed and facilitated the fourth Oxford Futures Forum held in May 2014. This event brought together leading practitioners and researchers...

  6. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1997-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  7. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    1992-12-31

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  8. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

  9. Scenario-based fitted Q-iteration for adaptive control of water reservoir systems under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertoni, Federica; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Over recent years, mathematical models have largely been used to support planning and management of water resources systems. Yet, the increasing uncertainties in their inputs - due to increased variability in the hydrological regimes - are a major challenge to the optimal operations of these systems. Such uncertainty, boosted by projected changing climate, violates the stationarity principle generally used for describing hydro-meteorological processes, which assumes time persisting statistical characteristics of a given variable as inferred by historical data. As this principle is unlikely to be valid in the future, the probability density function used for modeling stochastic disturbances (e.g., inflows) becomes an additional uncertain parameter of the problem, which can be described in a deterministic and set-membership based fashion. This study contributes a novel method for designing optimal, adaptive policies for controlling water reservoir systems under climate-related uncertainty. The proposed method, called scenario-based Fitted Q-Iteration (sFQI), extends the original Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm by enlarging the state space to include the space of the uncertain system's parameters (i.e., the uncertain climate scenarios). As a result, sFQI embeds the set-membership uncertainty of the future inflow scenarios in the action-value function and is able to approximate, with a single learning process, the optimal control policy associated to any scenario included in the uncertainty set. The method is demonstrated on a synthetic water system, consisting of a regulated lake operated for ensuring reliable water supply to downstream users. Numerical results show that the sFQI algorithm successfully identifies adaptive solutions to operate the system under different inflow scenarios, which outperform the control policy designed under historical conditions. Moreover, the sFQI policy generalizes over inflow scenarios not directly experienced during the policy design

  10. A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, Evelyn L.; Belt, Juan A.B.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary

    2010-01-01

    The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context.

  11. A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, Evelyn L.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary [International Resources Group, 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC 20036 (United States); Belt, Juan A.B. [US Agency for International Development, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20523-3800 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context. (author)

  12. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  13. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-09-17

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

  14. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  15. Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiran Han

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover (LULC models are essential for analyzing LULC change and predicting land use requirements and are valuable for guiding reasonable land use planning and management. However, each LULC model has its own advantages and constraints. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of LULC change and simulate future land use demand by combining a CLUE-S model with a Markov model to deal with some shortcomings of existing LULC models. Using Beijing as a case study, we describe the related driving factors from land-adaptive variables, regional spatial variables and socio-economic variables and then simulate future land use scenarios from 2010 to 2020, which include a development scenario (natural development and rapid development and protection scenarios (ecological and cultivated land protection. The results indicate good consistency between predicted results and actual land use situations according to a Kappa statistic. The conversion of cultivated land to urban built-up land will form the primary features of LULC change in the future. The prediction for land use demand shows the differences under different scenarios. At higher elevations, the geographical environment limits the expansion of urban built-up land, but the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land in mountainous areas will be more prevalent by 2020; Beijing, however, still faces the most pressure in terms of ecological and cultivated land protection.

  16. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  17. Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

    2000-01-01

    Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

  18. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Casajus

    Full Text Available An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

  19. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

    2016-01-01

    An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.