WorldWideScience

Sample records for scenario based outdoor

  1. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  2. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  3. Low VHF Channel Measurements and Simulations in Indoor and Outdoor Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-01

    Transactions on. 2002;50(5):591-599. 22. Nerguizian C, Despins C, Affes S, Djadel M. Radio-channel characterization of an underground mine at 2.4 ghz...INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK. viii 1. Introduction Reliable wireless communication is of paramount importance for many important civilian and military...report, we study near-ground, wireless channel modeling in the lower VHF band for indoor and indoor/outdoor scenarios, drawing from extensive propagation

  4. Evaluation of Spectrum Usage for GSM band in Indoor and Outdoor Scenario for Dynamic Spectrum Access

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patil, Kishor P.; Barge, Snehal; Skouby, Knud Erik

    2013-01-01

    , and transmit power. Several measurements have shown that the current spectrum is inefficiently utilized. The inefficient utilization problem can be solved with the help of Dynamic Spectrum Access. This paper describes the GSM band measurement conducted at different locations. In this paper, we report detailed...... measurement results of GSM band including statistical as well as spectral occupancy details obtained from measurement campaign conducted in Pune, India for indoor and outdoor scenarios. The results can be further used as an input for spectrum regulator for considering Cognitive Radio (CR) operation in GSM...

  5. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    -based efficacy and robustness. To facilitate the colla- borative strategizing in teams, we propose a matrix with robustness and efficacy as the two axes, which we call the Parmenides Matrix. We assess the impact of the novel approach by applying it in two cases, at a govern- mental agency (German Environmental...

  6. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

  7. Research Article Evaluation of different signal propagation models for a mixed indoor-outdoor scenario using empirical data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleksandr Artemenko

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we are choosing a suitable indoor-outdoor propagation model out of the existing models by considering path loss and distance as parameters. A path loss is calculated empirically by placing emitter nodes inside a building. A receiver placed outdoors is represented by a Quadrocopter (QC that receives beacon messages from indoor nodes. As per our analysis, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU model, Stanford University Interim (SUI model, COST-231 Hata model, Green-Obaidat model, Free Space model, Log-Distance Path Loss model and Electronic Communication Committee 33 (ECC-33 models are chosen and evaluated using empirical data collected in a real environment. The aim is to determine if the analytically chosen models fit our scenario by estimating the minimal standard deviation from the empirical data.

  8. School-Based Experiential Outdoor Education: A Neglected Necessity

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Joan K.; Williams, Theresa

    2017-01-01

    In this research study, we hear the voices of middle school students, preservice teachers, and practicing middle school teachers in support of school-based experiential outdoor education. The benefits of engaging youth in memorably relevant learning, immersing them in physically active, field-based education, and providing them with authentic,…

  9. INDOOR-OUTDOOR AEROSOL CONCENTRATIONS IN TWO PORTUGUESE CITIES AND THE GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antonio F. Miguel; A. Heitor Reis [Department of Physics, University of Evora (Portugal); Marta Melgao [Geophysics Centre of Evora (Portugal)

    2008-09-30

    Aerosols play a major role both in climate change and in air quality. They affect climate through interfering with radiative transfer and hence the atmospheric temperature, and also the air quality. Many epidemiological studies have confirmed that a relation exists between elevated aerosol particle concentration and adverse human health effects. Aerosol particle number and size distributions were measured both indoors and outdoors in the urban areas of Evora and Lisbon. We investigated the indoor-to-outdoor relationship of aerosol particles and the aerosol size distributions. The impact of the occurrence of a residential fire in the aerosol size distribution is also analyzed. Finally, we speculate of how global increase in temperature can affect concentration of aerosols in the atmosphere, via increased boundary layer convection.

  10. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  11. Learned Compact Local Feature Descriptor for Tls-Based Geodetic Monitoring of Natural Outdoor Scenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gojcic, Z.; Zhou, C.; Wieser, A.

    2018-05-01

    The advantages of terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) for geodetic monitoring of man-made and natural objects are not yet fully exploited. Herein we address one of the open challenges by proposing feature-based methods for identification of corresponding points in point clouds of two or more epochs. We propose a learned compact feature descriptor tailored for point clouds of natural outdoor scenes obtained using TLS. We evaluate our method both on a benchmark data set and on a specially acquired outdoor dataset resembling a simplified monitoring scenario where we successfully estimate 3D displacement vectors of a rock that has been displaced between the scans. We show that the proposed descriptor has the capacity to generalize to unseen data and achieves state-of-the-art performance while being time efficient at the matching step due the low dimension.

  12. The latest trends in nature-based outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Ken Cordell

    2008-01-01

    Considerable interest in better understanding current trends in nature-based outdoor recreation followed publication of Richard Louv’s book, Last Child in the Woods, and a recent paper by Oliver R.W. Pergams and Patricia A. Zaradic titled “Evidence for a Fundamental and Pervasive Shift away from Nature-Based Recreation.”

  13. Channel Characteristics and User Body Effects in an Outdoor Urban Scenario at 15 and 28 GHz

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Kun; Gustafson, Carl; Liao, Qingbi

    2017-01-01

    The effect of a user’s body on channel characteristics for single user downlink transmission in an urban scenario for the 5th generation (5G) systems is investigated with ray-tracing at 15 GHz and 28 GHz. Three different designs of user equipment (UE) antennas are fabricated and integrated into a...

  14. Safety Cultures in Water-Based Outdoor Activities in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andkjær, Søren; Arvidsen, Jan

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we report on the study Safe in Nature (Tryg i naturen) in which the aim was to analyze and discuss risk and safety related to outdoor recreation in the coastal regions of Denmark. A cultural perspective is applied to risk management and the safety cultures related to three selected...... water-based outdoor activities: small boat fishing, sea kayaking, and kite surfing. The theoretical framework used was cultural analysis and the methodological approach was mixed methods using case studies with survey and qualitative interviews. The study indicates that safety is a complex matter...... and that safety culture can be understood as the sum and interaction among six categories. The safety culture is closely related to the activity and differs widely among activities. We suggest a broad perspective be taken on risk management wherein risk and safety can be managed at different levels. Small boat...

  15. Is outdoor vector control needed for malaria elimination? An individual-based modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lin; Müller, Günter C; Marshall, John M; Arheart, Kristopher L; Qualls, Whitney A; Hlaing, WayWay M; Schlein, Yosef; Traore, Sekou F; Doumbia, Seydou; Beier, John C

    2017-07-03

    Residual malaria transmission has been reported in many areas even with adequate indoor vector control coverage, such as long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). The increased insecticide resistance in Anopheles mosquitoes has resulted in reduced efficacy of the widely used indoor tools and has been linked with an increase in outdoor malaria transmission. There are considerations of incorporating outdoor interventions into integrated vector management (IVM) to achieve malaria elimination; however, more information on the combination of tools for effective control is needed to determine their utilization. A spatial individual-based model was modified to simulate the environment and malaria transmission activities in a hypothetical, isolated African village setting. LLINs and outdoor attractive toxic sugar bait (ATSB) stations were used as examples of indoor and outdoor interventions, respectively. Different interventions and lengths of efficacy periods were tested. Simulations continued for 420 days, and each simulation scenario was repeated 50 times. Mosquito populations, entomologic inoculation rates (EIRs), probabilities of local mosquito extinction, and proportion of time when the annual EIR was reduced below one were compared between different intervention types and efficacy periods. In the village setting with clustered houses, the combinational intervention of 50% LLINs plus outdoor ATSBs significantly reduced mosquito population and EIR in short term, increased the probability of local mosquito extinction, and increased the time when annual EIR is less than one per person compared to 50% LLINs alone; outdoor ATSBs alone significantly reduced mosquito population in short term, increased the probability of mosquito extinction, and increased the time when annual EIR is less than one compared to 50% LLINs alone, but there was no significant difference in EIR in short term between 50% LLINs and outdoor ATSBs. In the village setting with dispersed houses, the

  16. Map-Based Channel Model for Urban Macrocell Propagation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose F. Monserrat

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of LTE towards 5G has started and different research projects and institutions are in the process of verifying new technology components through simulations. Coordination between groups is strongly recommended and, in this sense, a common definition of test cases and simulation models is needed. The scope of this paper is to present a realistic channel model for urban macrocell scenarios. This model is map-based and takes into account the layout of buildings situated in the area under study. A detailed description of the model is given together with a comparison with other widely used channel models. The benchmark includes a measurement campaign in which the proposed model is shown to be much closer to the actual behavior of a cellular system. Particular attention is given to the outdoor component of the model, since it is here where the proposed approach is showing main difference with other previous models.

  17. Using infrared HOG-based pedestrian detection for outdoor autonomous searching UAV with embedded system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Yanhua; Mei, Yanying; Chu, Hongyu; Chang, Zhiyuan; He, Yuxuan; Zhan, Huayi

    2018-04-01

    Pedestrian detection (PD) is an important application domain in computer vision and pattern recognition. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have become a major field of research in recent years. In this paper, an algorithm for a robust pedestrian detection method based on the combination of the infrared HOG (IR-HOG) feature and SVM is proposed for highly complex outdoor scenarios on the basis of airborne IR image sequences from UAV. The basic flow of our application operation is as follows. Firstly, the thermal infrared imager (TAU2-336), which was installed on our Outdoor Autonomous Searching (OAS) UAV, is used for taking pictures of the designated outdoor area. Secondly, image sequences collecting and processing were accomplished by using high-performance embedded system with Samsung ODROID-XU4 and Ubuntu as the core and operating system respectively, and IR-HOG features were extracted. Finally, the SVM is used to train the pedestrian classifier. Experiment show that, our method shows promising results under complex conditions including strong noise corruption, partial occlusion etc.

  18. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

  19. Entering the Fray: The Role of Outdoor Education in Providing Nature-Based Experiences that Matter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicol, Robbie

    2014-01-01

    This article draws on different bodies of knowledge in order to review the potential role of outdoor education in providing nature-based experiences that might contribute to sustainable living. A pragmatic perspective is adopted to critique what outdoor education is, and then what it might be. Phenomenology is used to challenge the belief that…

  20. A constraints-based approach to the acquisition of expertise in outdoor adventure sports

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davids, Keith; Brymer, Eric; Seifert, Ludovic; Orth, Dominic

    2013-01-01

    A constraints-based framework enables a new understanding of expertise in outdoor adventure sports by considering performer-environment couplings through emergent and self-organizing behaviours in relation to interacting constraints. Expert adventure athletes, conceptualized as complex, dynamical

  1. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  2. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  3. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  4. Parametric Design of Outdoor Broadcasting Studio Based on Schema Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhu Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper mainly demonstrates that the schema is an important way for the architect to cognize architecture form logic. It connects schema to algorithm of parametric design in order to seek the “algorithm schema” generation in parametric design of architecture. Meanwhile, this paper discusses the generative process and methods of the “algorithm schema” in parametric design of architecture by describing a case of outdoor broadcasting studio of Hunan Economic Radio. It also reveals the importance of “algorithm schema” for the cognition and architectural form logic generation.

  5. Estimating Outdoor Illumination Conditions Based on Detection of Dynamic Shadows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Claus B.; Lal, Brajesh Behari

    2013-01-01

    into the image stream to achieve realistic Augmented Reality where the shading and the shadowing of virtual objects is consistent with the real scene. Other techniques require the presence of a known object, a light probe, in the scene for estimating illumination. The technique proposed here works in general......The paper proposes a technique for estimation outdoor illumination conditions in terms of sun and sky radiances directly from pixel values of dynamic shadows detected in video sequences produved by a commercial stereo camera. The technique is applied to the rendering of virtual object...

  6. Comparing on-road real-time simultaneous in-cabin and outdoor particulate and gaseous concentrations for a range of ventilation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leavey, Anna; Reed, Nathan; Patel, Sameer; Bradley, Kevin; Kulkarni, Pramod; Biswas, Pratim

    2017-10-01

    Advanced automobile technology, developed infrastructure, and changing economic markets have resulted in increasing commute times. Traffic is a major source of harmful pollutants and consequently daily peak exposures tend to occur near roadways or while travelling on them. The objective of this study was to measure simultaneous real-time particulate matter (particle numbers, lung-deposited surface area, PM2.5, particle number size distributions) and CO concentrations outside and in-cabin of an on-road car during regular commutes to and from work. Data was collected for different ventilation parameters (windows open or closed, fan on, AC on), whilst travelling along different road-types with varying traffic densities. Multiple predictor variables were examined using linear mixed-effects models. Ambient pollutants (NOx, PM2.5, CO) and meteorological variables (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, dew point) explained 5-44% of outdoor pollutant variability, while the time spent travelling behind a bus was statistically significant for PM2.5, lung-deposited SA, and CO (adj-R2 values = 0.12, 0.10, 0.13). The geometric mean diameter (GMD) for outdoor aerosol was 34 nm. Larger cabin GMDs were observed when windows were closed compared to open (b = 4.3, p-value = <0.01). When windows were open, cabin total aerosol concentrations tracked those outdoors. With windows closed, the pollutants took longer to enter the vehicle cabin, but also longer to exit it. Concentrations of pollutants in cabin were influenced by outdoor concentrations, ambient temperature, and the window/ventilation parameters. As expected, particle number concentrations were impacted the most by changes to window position/ventilation, and PM2.5 the least. Car drivers can expect their highest exposures when driving with windows open or the fan on, and their lowest exposures during windows closed or the AC on. Final linear mixed-effects models could explain between 88 and 97% of cabin pollutant

  7. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

    2016-01-01

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ‘easy’ scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty. (paper)

  8. The effect of a school-based outdoor education program on Visual ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this research is to determine the effect of an education programme developed based on the school-based outdoor education approach on the academic achievement of visual arts teachers, as well as their self-efficacy beliefs for using museums and the natural environment. The aim is likewise to explore the ...

  9. Designing and Evaluating Conative Game-Based Learning Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schønau-Fog, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    It is an essential prerequisite to design for motivation in game-based learning applications, tools and activities. However, how is it possible to design and evaluate motivational game-based learning scenarios in a systematic process-oriented manner based on conation and player engagement? While...... of ‘continuation desire’ such as interfacing with the scenario, exploration and socialising. This paper aims to combine the concepts of Player Engagement, Conation and Continuation Desire by focusing on the conative aspects which are the essential drivers for the desire to continue any learning activity......-based learning scenarios....

  10. Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian

    2009-01-01

    We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kernel...... subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking...

  11. Factors affecting outdoor exposure in winter: population-based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkinen, Tiina M.; Raatikka, Veli-Pekka; Rytkönen, Mika; Jokelainen, Jari; Rintamäki, Hannu; Ruuhela, Reija; Näyhä, Simo; Hassi, Juhani

    2006-09-01

    The extent of outdoor exposure during winter and factors affecting it were examined in a cross-sectional population study in Finland. Men and women aged 25-74 years from the National FINRISK 2002 sub-study ( n=6,591) were queried about their average weekly occupational, leisure-time and total cold exposure during the past winter. The effects of gender, age, area of residence, occupation, ambient temperature, self-rated health, physical activity and education on cold exposure were analysed. The self-reported median total cold exposure time was 7 h/week (8 h men, 6 h women),employed in agriculture, forestry and industry/mining/construction or related occupations, being less educated and being aged 55-64 years. Factors associated with increased leisure-time cold exposure among men were: employment in industry/mining/construction or related occupations, being a pensioner or unemployed, reporting at least average health, being physically active and having college or vocational education. Among women, being a housewife, pensioner or unemployed and engaged in physical activity increased leisure-time cold exposure, and young women were more exposed than older ones. Self-rated health was positively associated with leisure time cold exposure in men and only to a minor extent in women. In conclusion, the subjects reported spending 4% of their total time under cold exposure, most of it (71%) during leisure time. Both occupational and leisure-time cold exposure is greater among men than women.

  12. Scenario Based E-Learning in Electrical Engineering Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambunan, Hamonangan; Dalimunte, Amirhud; Silitonga, Marsangkap

    2017-01-01

    The scenario based e-learning in Electrical Engineering Education Learning (EEEL) was developed by covering the scope and characteristics of all subjects and the competence unit of graduates in the field of pedagogy, professional, social and personality, with url addresed http://jpte-ft-unimed.edu20.org. The scenario incorporates the concept of…

  13. Creative Classrooms through Game-Based Role-Play Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjedde, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    studies a framework that anchors the curriculum in game-based role-play scenarios and offers affordances for the learners to immerse themselves in the multiple perspectives of the roles. In this way of introducing problem based learning in immersive narrative environments, the learners are provided......-based role-play scenarios as a learning tool that can integrate the curriculum in meaningful context, and how it has impacted on the interaction and creative learning experiences in the class....

  14. Case-Based Teaching of Fatal Incidents in Outdoor Education Teacher Preparation Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, Chris; Brookes, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    This article examines the use of case-based approaches to fatal incidents in outdoor education (OE) with a view to fatality prevention. Fatalities are rare in OE and therefore it is nearly impossible for teachers to learn how to avoid fatalities from their own past experiences. It is, however, possible to learn from the mistakes of others through…

  15. Seamless Indoor/Outdoor Positioning Handover for Location-Based Services in Streamspin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Rene; Wind, Rico; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

    2009-01-01

    the delivery of truly ubiquitous location-based services by integrating GPS and Wi-Fi location fingerprinting. The paper puts focus on key aspects of the seamless handover between outdoor to indoor positioning. Several different handover solutions are presented,and their applicability is evaluated with respect...

  16. Location Based Services for Outdoor Ecological Learning System: Design and Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao, Hsien-Sheng; Lin, Chih-Cheng; Feng, Ruei-Ting; Li, Kun Jing

    2010-01-01

    This paper aimed to demonstrate how location-based services were implemented in ubiquitous outdoor ecological learning system. In an elementary school in northern Taiwan, two fifth grade classes on an ecology project were randomly selected: The experimental group could access the ecological learning system on hand-held devices while the control…

  17. Outdoor experiential-based training: motivational and environmental influences affecting outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teresa (Birdie) High; Alan R. Graefe

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to go beyond the examination of the single construct of team building by measuring the impact of motivational and environmental factors on the effectiveness of an outdoor-based training (OBT) intervention. The study assessed the self-perceptions of trainee attitudes and attributes that influenced the constructs of motivation to learn,...

  18. Rapid Development of Scenario-Based Simulations and Tutoring Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mohammed, John L; Sorensen, Barbara; Ong, James C; Li, Jian

    2005-01-01

    .... Scenario-based training, in which trainees practice handling specific situations using faithful simulations of the equipment they will use on the job has proven to be an extremely effective method...

  19. Measurements of MIMO Indoor Channels at 1800 MHz with Multiple Indoor and Outdoor Base Stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaldén Niklas

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes several configurations for multiple base stations in indoor MIMO systems and compares their performance. The results are based on channel measurements realized with a MIMO testbed. The receiver was moved along several routes and floors on an office building. Both outdoor and indoor locations are considered for the transmitters or base stations, which allow the analysis of not only indoor but also outdoor-to-indoor environment. The use of 2 base stations with different system level combinations of the two is analyzed. We show that the configuration with base station selection provides almost as good performance as a full water-filling scheme when the 2 base stations are placed at different locations. Also the spatial correlation properties for the different configurations are analyzed and the importance of considering path loss when evaluating capacity is highlighted.

  20. Relationship Between Air Quality and Outdoor Exercise Behavior in China: a Novel Mobile-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Liang; Zhu, Li; Xu, Yaping; Lyu, Jiaying; Imm, Kellie; Yang, Lin

    2017-08-01

    Based on data collected from an exercise app, the study aims to provide empirical evidence on the relationship between air quality and patterns of outdoor exercise in China. Objective outdoor exercise data spanning 160 days were collected from 153 users of an exercise app, Tulipsport in China. Each exercise mode (running, biking, and walking, respectively) was organized into five air quality categories based on Air Quality Index (AQI): excellent, good, mild pollution, moderate pollution, and serious pollution. Key parameters of each app user were calculated and analyzed: the total number of exercise bouts, the average duration, and the average distance of each exercise mode in each air quality category. Multivariate analyses of variance indicate that the users were less likely to participate in outdoor running, biking, and walking (F = 24.16, p air pollution increased. However, there is no difference in terms of average distance and duration of exercise across different air pollution categories. People's participation in outdoor exercise is impeded by air pollution severity, but they stick to their exercise routines once exercise is initiated. Although people should protect themselves from health damages caused by exercising under pollution, the decreases in physical activity associated with air pollution may also pose an indirect risk to public health. The interactive relationship between air quality, exercise, and health warrants more empirical and interdisciplinary explorations.

  1. Overview description of the base scenario derived from FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed performance assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. It is intended that assessment of the base scenario would form the core of any future performance assessment. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs which are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment - timescale. Variant scenarios are defined by FEPs which represent a significant perturbation to the natural system evolution, for example the occurrence of a large seismic event. The structuring of FEPs on a Master Directed Diagram (MDD), provides a systematic framework for identifying those FEPs which form part of the natural evolution of the system and those which may define alternative potential evolutions of the repository system. In order to construct a description of the base scenario, FEPs have been grouped into a series of conceptual models. Conceptual models are groups of FEPs, identified from the MDD, representing a specific component or process within the disposal system. It has been found appropriate to define conceptual models in terms of the three main components of the disposal system: the repository engineered system, the surrounding geosphere and the biosphere. For each of these components, conceptual models provide a description of the relevant subsystem in terms of its initial characteristics

  2. Confirmation of the Conditional Outdoor Leadership Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Tim; Priest, Simon

    1991-01-01

    Responses of 75 expert outdoor leaders from Canada and the United States concerning leadership in 12 hypothetical backpacking scenarios provided partial support for a theory that predicted probability of leadership style (democratic, autocratic, or abdicratic) based on favorability of conditions, task orientation, and relationship orientation.…

  3. Mars Scenario-Based Visioning: Logistical Optimization of Transportation Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this conceptual design investigation is to examine transportation forecasts for future human Wu missions to Mars. - Scenario-Based Visioning is used to generate possible future demand projections. These scenarios are then coupled with availability, cost, and capacity parameters for indigenously designed Mars Transfer Vehicles (solar electric, nuclear thermal, and chemical propulsion types) and Earth-to-Orbit launch vehicles (current, future, and indigenous) to provide a cost-conscious dual-phase launch manifest to meet such future demand. A simulator named M-SAT (Mars Scenario Analysis Tool) is developed using this method. This simulation is used to examine three specific transportation scenarios to Mars: a limited "flaus and footprints" mission, a More ambitious scientific expedition similar to an expanded version of the Design Reference Mission from NASA, and a long-term colonization scenario. Initial results from the simulation indicate that chemical propulsion systems might be the architecture of choice for all three scenarios. With this mind, "what if' analyses were performed which indicated that if nuclear production costs were reduced by 30% for the colonization scenario, then the nuclear architecture would have a lower life cycle cost than the chemical. Results indicate that the most cost-effective solution to the Mars transportation problem is to plan for segmented development, this involves development of one vehicle at one opportunity and derivatives of that vehicle at subsequent opportunities.

  4. Parameter extraction and estimation based on the PV panel outdoor ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The experimental data obtained are validated and compared with the estimated results obtained through simulation based on the manufacture's data sheet. The simulation is based on the Newton-Raphson iterative method in MATLAB environment. This approach aids the computation of the PV module's parameters at any ...

  5. OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

    2001-01-01

    Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

  6. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  7. A scenario based approach for flexible resource loading under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wullink, Gerhard; Gademann, Noud; Hans, Elias W.; van Harten, Aart

    2003-01-01

    Order acceptance decisions in manufacture-to-order environments are often made based on incomplete or uncertain information. To promise reliable due dates and to manage resource capacity adequately, resource capacity loading is an indispensable supporting tool. We propose a scenario based approach

  8. An ontology for automated scenario-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Bosch, K. van den; Neerincx, M.A.; Meyer, J.J.Ch.

    2014-01-01

    An intelligent system for automated scenario-based training (SBT) needs knowledge about the training domain, events taking place in the simulated environment, the behaviour of the participating characters, and teaching strategies for effective learning. This knowledge base should be theoretically

  9. Nature-based outdoor recreation trends and wilderness

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Ken Cordell; Carter Betz; Gary T. Green

    2008-01-01

    Wilderness and other public land management agencies, both federal and state, have been feeling a pinch. It seems this pinch may partly be in response to a growing perception, or perhaps misperception,that nature-based, especially wildland recreation, is on the decline. This perception has been getting a lot of media attention of late. Some of us who have done research...

  10. Peripheral and gastrointestinal immune systems of healthy cattle raised outdoors at pasture or indoors on a concentrate-based ration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejeune, Alexandre; Monahan, Frank J; Moloney, Aidan P; Earley, Bernadette; Black, Alistair D; Campion, Deirdre P; Englishby, Tanya; Reilly, Petrina; O'Doherty, John; Sweeney, Torres

    2010-03-31

    Despite an increasing preference of consumers for beef produced from more extensive pasture-based production systems and potential human health benefits from the consumption of such beef, data regarding the health status of animals raised on pasture are limited. The objective of this study was to characterise specific aspects of the bovine peripheral and the gastrointestinal muscosal immune systems of cattle raised on an outdoor pasture system in comparison to animals raised on a conventional intensive indoor concentrate-based system. A number of in vitro functional tests of immune cells suggested subtle differences between the animals on the outdoor versus indoor production systems. There was a decrease in the number of neutrophils and monocytes engaged in phagocytosis in outdoor cattle (P outdoor animals (P outdoor animals with elevated levels of serum pepsinogen (P outdoor animals in comparison to the indoor animals. Lower levels of copper and iodine were measured in the outdoor animals in comparison to indoor animals (P < 0.001). Despite distinctly contrasting production systems, only subtle differences were identified in the peripheral immune parameters measured between cattle raised at pasture in comparison to animals raised on a conventional intensive indoor concentrate-based production system.

  11. Development of an Outdoor Temperature-Based Control Algorithm for Residential Mechanical Ventilation Control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Less, Brennan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Walker, Iain [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Tang, Yihuan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Smart ventilation systems use controls to ventilate more during those periods that provide either an energy or IAQ advantage (or both) and less during periods that provide a dis advantage. Using detailed building simulations, this study addresses one of the simplest and lowest cost types of smart controllers —outdoor temperature- based control. If the outdoor temperature falls below a certain cut- off, the fan is simply turned off. T he main principle of smart ventilation used in this study is to shift ventilation from time periods with large indoor -outdoor temperature differences, to periods where these differences are smaller, and their energy impacts are expected to be less. Energy and IAQ performance are assessed relative to a base case of a continuously operated ventilation fan sized to comply with ASHRAE 62.2-2013 whole house ventilation requirements. In order to satisfy 62.2-2013, annual pollutant exposure must be equivalent between the temperature controlled and continuous fan cases. This requires ventilation to be greater than 62.2 requirements when the ventilation system operates. This is achieved by increasing the mechanical ventilation system air flow rates.

  12. INFORMATION SYSTEM SALES OF INDOOR AND OUTDOOR ORNAMENTAL PLANTS-BASED ONLINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutedi Sutedi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Ornamental plants have fairly high commercial value and much sought after by various circles. The prospect is in the business of ornamental plants can be said very brilliant and profitable. Where is in the business of ornamental plants can bring about advantages not the least. The business struggled with ornamental plants can have very favorable prospects for the long term. There are an awful lot of various kinds of ornamental plants that we can choose to use as ornaments to beautify residential home. The ornamental plants can be used as indoor ornamental plants placed in homes or can also be used as outdoor ornamental plants grown in the garden. Ornamental plants while more popular community-wide information system for ornamental plant however is currently designed specifically and not many people who know the information on price and specs or type of indoor and outdoor ornamental plants so that the need for sales information system of indoor and outdoor ornamental plants-based online. With the sales information system of Indoor and Outdoor ornamental plants-based online is expected to facilitate the customers, business processes that occur in the company's units, unit – units that exist within the system a functioning production units as the unit working on/produce ornamental plants. With the utilization of the system marketing media, promoting, finding new customers, the sales process, recapitulation payment of ornamental plants, control the conditions of stock products, development and delivery of products to customers including convincing the product gets to the customer

  13. Using narrative-based design scaffolds within a mobile learning environment to support learning outdoors with young children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seely, Brian J.

    This study aims to advance learning outdoors with mobile devices. As part of the ongoing Tree Investigators design-based research study, this research investigated a mobile application to support observation, identification, and explanation of the tree life cycle within an authentic, outdoor setting. Recognizing the scientific and conceptual complexity of this topic for young children, the design incorporated technological and design scaffolds within a narrative-based learning environment. In an effort to support learning, 14 participants (aged 5-9) were guided through the mobile app on tree life cycles by a comic-strip pedagogical agent, "Nutty the Squirrel", as they looked to explore and understand through guided observational practices and artifact creation tasks. In comparison to previous iterations of this DBR study, the overall patterns of talk found in this study were similar, with perceptual and conceptual talk being the first and second most frequently coded categories, respectively. However, this study coded considerably more instances of affective talk. This finding of the higher frequency of affective talk could possibly be explained by the relatively younger age of this iteration's participants, in conjunction with the introduced pedagogical agent, who elicited playfulness and delight from the children. The results also indicated a significant improvement when comparing the pretest results (mean score of .86) with the posttest results (mean score of 4.07, out of 5). Learners were not only able to recall the phases of a tree life cycle, but list them in the correct order. The comparison reports a significant increase, showing evidence of increased knowledge and appropriation of scientific vocabulary. The finding suggests the narrative was effective in structuring the complex material into a story for sense making. Future research with narratives should consider a design to promote learner agency through more interactions with the pedagogical agent and a

  14. Increasing Interest in Cognitive Psychology Using Scenario-Based Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cormack, Sophie

    2014-01-01

    Students often perceive cognitive psychology as an abstract and difficult subject with little intrinsic interest. When student feedback identified problems with the traditional essay assessment in a cognitive psychology module, action research led to the development of a forensic scenario-based assessment which successfully increased student…

  15. Using scenario based programming to develop embedded control software

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bettiol, F.

    2015-01-01

    A new paradigm to develop embedded software is waking up the interest of companies. Its name is Scenario Based Programming and it claims to be a good approach to develop embedded software. Live Sequence Charts (LSC), a visual language supporting the paradigm, enables the developers to specify a

  16. Laser-Based and Ultra-Portable Gas Sensor for Indoor and Outdoor Formaldehyde (HCHO) Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shutter, J. D.; Allen, N.; Paul, J.; Thiebaud, J.; So, S.; Scherer, J. J.; Keutsch, F. N.

    2017-12-01

    While used as a key tracer of oxidative chemistry in the atmosphere, formaldehyde (HCHO) is also a known human carcinogen and is listed and regulated by the United States EPA as a hazardous air pollutant. Combustion processes and photochemical oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are the major outdoor sources of HCHO, and building materials and household products are ubiquitous sources of indoor HCHO. Due to the ease with which humans can be exposed to HCHO, it is imperative to monitor levels of both indoor and outdoor HCHO exposure in both short and long-term studies.High-quality direct and indirect methods of quantifying HCHO mixing ratios exist, but instrument size and user-friendliness can make them cumbersome or impractical for certain types of indoor and long-term outdoor measurements. In this study, we present urban HCHO measurements by using a new, commercially-available, ppbv-level accurate HCHO gas sensor (Aeris Technologies' MIRA Pico VOC Laser-Based Gas Analyzer) that is highly portable (29 cm x 20 cm x 10 cm), lightweight (3 kg), easy-to-use, and has low power (15 W) consumption. Using an ultra-compact multipass cell, an absorption path length of 13 m is achieved, resulting in a sensor capable of achieving ppbv/s sensitivity levels with no significant spectral interferences.To demonstrate the utility of the gas sensor for emissions measurements, a GPS was attached to the sensor's housing in order to map mobile HCHO measurements in real-time around the Boston, Massachusetts, metro area. Furthermore, the sensor was placed in residential and industrial environments to show its usefulness for indoor and outdoor pollution measurements. Lastly, we show the feasibility of using the HCHO sensor (or a network of them) in long-term monitoring stations for hazardous air pollutants.

  17. Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  18. The frequency of outdoor play for preschool age children cared for at home-based child care settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tandon, Pooja S; Zhou, Chuan; Christakis, Dimitri A

    2012-01-01

    Given that more than 34% of U.S. children are cared for in home-based child care settings and outdoor play is associated with physical activity and other health benefits, we sought to characterize the outdoor play frequency of preschoolers cared for at home-based child care settings and factors associated with outdoor play. Cross-sectional study of 1900 preschoolers (representing approximately 862,800 children) cared for in home-based child care settings (including relative and nonrelative care) using the nationally representative Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort. Only 50% of home-based child care providers reported taking the child outside to walk or play at least once/day. More than one-third of all children did not go outside to play daily with either their parent(s) or home-based child care provider. There were increased odds of going outside daily for children cared for by nonrelatives in the child's home compared with care from a relative. Children with ≥3 regular playmates had greater odds of being taken outdoors by either the parents or child care provider. We did not find statistically significant associations between other child level (age, sex, screen-time), family level (highest education in household, mother's race, employment, exercise frequency), and child care level (hours in care, provider's educational attainment, perception of neighborhood safety) factors and frequency of outdoor play. At a national level, the frequency of outdoor play for preschoolers cared for in home-based child care settings is suboptimal. Further study and efforts to increase outdoor playtime for children in home-based child care settings are needed. Copyright © 2012 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Outdoor altitude stabilization of QuadRotor based on type-2 fuzzy and fuzzy PID

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicaksono, H.; Yusuf, Y. G.; Kristanto, C.; Haryanto, L.

    2017-11-01

    This paper presents a design of altitude stabilization of QuadRotor based on type-2 fuzzy and fuzzy PID. This practical design is implemented outdoor. Barometric and sonar sensor were used in this experiment as an input for the controller YoHe. The throttle signal as a control input was provided by the controller to leveling QuadRotor in particular altitude and known well as altitude stabilization. The parameter of type-2 fuzzy and fuzzy PID was tuned in several heights to get the best control parameter for any height. Type-2 fuzzy produced better result than fuzzy PID but had a slow response in the beginning.

  20. European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

    2011-01-01

    In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

  1. Base Station Antenna Pattern Distortion in Practical Urban Deployment Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

    2014-01-01

    In real urban deployments, base station antennas are typically not placed in free space conditions. Therefore, the radiation pattern can be affected by mounting structures and nearby obstacles located in the proximity of the antenna (near-field), which are often not taken into consideration. Also...... presents a combination of near-field and far-field simulations aimed to provide an overview of the distortion experienced by the base station antenna pattern in two different urban deployment scenarios: rooftop and telecommunications tower. The study illustrates how, in comparison with the near...

  2. Exposure assessment of mobile phone base station radiation in an outdoor environment using sequential surrogate modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Sam; Deschrijver, Dirk; Joseph, Wout; Verloock, Leen; Goeminne, Francis; Martens, Luc; Dhaene, Tom

    2013-05-01

    Human exposure to background radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) has been increasing with the introduction of new technologies. There is a definite need for the quantification of RF-EMF exposure but a robust exposure assessment is not yet possible, mainly due to the lack of a fast and efficient measurement procedure. In this article, a new procedure is proposed for accurately mapping the exposure to base station radiation in an outdoor environment based on surrogate modeling and sequential design, an entirely new approach in the domain of dosimetry for human RF exposure. We tested our procedure in an urban area of about 0.04 km(2) for Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) technology at 900 MHz (GSM900) using a personal exposimeter. Fifty measurement locations were sufficient to obtain a coarse street exposure map, locating regions of high and low exposure; 70 measurement locations were sufficient to characterize the electric field distribution in the area and build an accurate predictive interpolation model. Hence, accurate GSM900 downlink outdoor exposure maps (for use in, e.g., governmental risk communication and epidemiological studies) are developed by combining the proven efficiency of sequential design with the speed of exposimeter measurements and their ease of handling. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Innovative Educational Scenarios in Game Based Teaching and Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Smeureanu

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The didactical game can be considered part of an educational scenario in teaching and learning. This article aims to show how fundamental concepts from the economicmathematical modeling area can be visualized, how to organize knowledge in coherent scenarios, presented in an educational game manner, to gain the attention and influence students' spirit of competition. At the same time, benefitting from the 3D visualizations, the graphical interfaces for navigating in multidimensional spaces or projections are defined and thus imagination used for mental models construction is stimulated and human intuition is capitalized in the process of knowledge discovery, assisted by computer with analytic algorithms type. Exploration becomes a game feature and can be pursued both numerically and visually. 3D environments give realism to visualizations that are found in games, facilitating realimaginary relationship throughout the game and enhancing learning motivation. The innovative character of teaching is given by the method in which the teacher creates his own educational scenario by considering specific learning objectives, age particularities of students, time and space-related resources, the technical requirements of the game and the evaluation method. The paper makes several references to such projects, developed by the authors and implemented in working with students. Game based on demonstration (using simulation, modelling or visualization coordinates users to obtain relevant information; the multiple representations of knowledge are so used and compared through a multitude of examples.

  4. Outdoor Illegal Construction Identification Algorithm Based on 3D Point Cloud Segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Lu; Guo, Baolong

    2018-03-01

    Recently, various illegal constructions occur significantly in our surroundings, which seriously restrict the orderly development of urban modernization. The 3D point cloud data technology is used to identify the illegal buildings, which could address the problem above effectively. This paper proposes an outdoor illegal construction identification algorithm based on 3D point cloud segmentation. Initially, in order to save memory space and reduce processing time, a lossless point cloud compression method based on minimum spanning tree is proposed. Then, a ground point removing method based on the multi-scale filtering is introduced to increase accuracy. Finally, building clusters on the ground can be obtained using a region growing method, as a result, the illegal construction can be marked. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is verified using a publicly data set collected from the International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ISPRS).

  5. Modern Policyholder Preferences and Scenario-Based Projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel

    This PhD thesis covers aspects of policyholder preferences and life insurance projections based on economic scenarios. Both topics are relevant to policyholders as well as to the life insurance and pension industry—and equally important, the topics give rise to a variety of interesting mathematical...... is important for designing competitive life insurance and savings products and for providing sound advice to policyholders. Preferences come in many shapes and forms. In this thesis, we focus on separation of risk and time preferences and preferences for smooth investment. The latter is modeled with something...

  6. Scenario-based teaching in undergraduate medical education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patel K

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Kunj Patel, Omar El Tokhy Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UKWe read with great interest the study by Frost et al1 which highlights the importance of scenario-based teaching (SBT of clinical communication in medical undergraduate pediatrics teaching. SBT involves students navigating a storyline based around a complex problem, running in parallel with case-based learning. We were impressed by the results of the SBT program at Cardiff University School of Medicine. As medical students currently on our pediatric rotation at Imperial College London, we have experienced at first hand the benefits of SBT. Throughout the placement, it continues to help us tackle the complexities which arise when communicating with children and their families. We have noted its particular benefit in breaking bad news to families. Without effective teaching on this particular scenario, a failure to grasp this skill could exacerbate patient and parent concerns. Much like the authors of this study highlight,1 we believe specific teaching on communication skills should be a mandatory part of medical undergraduate education at every institution. Imperial College School of Medicine has developed a similar teaching style which has been unparalleled in its benefit to us during our pediatric rotation. Although there is scant literature available specifically addressing communicating with children and parents at undergraduate level, the use of SBT throughout undergraduate medical teaching should not be underestimated. Read the original paper by Frost et al

  7. Evaluating design-based formative assessment practices in outdoor science teaching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartmeyer, Rikke; Stevenson, Matthew Peter; Bentsen, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Background and purpose: Research in formative assessment often pays close attention to the strategies which can be used by teachers. However, less emphasis in the literature seems to have been paid to study the application of formative assessment designs in practice. In this paper, we argue...... that a formative assessment design that we call Eva-Mapping, which is developed on the principles of design-based research, can be a productive starting point for disseminating and further developing formative assessment practices in outdoor science teaching. Sample, design and methods: We conducted an evaluation...... of the design, based on video-elicited focus group interviews with two groups of experienced science teachers. Both groups consisted of teachers who taught science outside the classroom on a regular basis. These groups watched identical video sequences which were recorded during lessons in which teachers...

  8. Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

  9. Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

  10. Is outdoor work associated with elevated rates of cerebrovascular disease mortality? A cohort study based on iron-ore mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björ, Ove; Jonsson, Håkan; Damber, Lena; Burström, Lage; Nilsson, Tohr

    2016-01-01

    A cohort study that examined iron ore mining found negative associations between cumulative working time employed underground and several outcomes, including mortality of cerebrovascular diseases. In this cohort study, and using the same group of miners, we examined whether work in an outdoor environment could explain elevated cerebrovascular disease rates. This study was based on a Swedish iron ore mining cohort consisting of 13,000 workers. Poisson regression models were used to generate smoothed estimates of standardized mortality ratios and adjusted rate ratios, both models by cumulative exposure time in outdoor work. The adjusted rate ratio between employment classified as outdoor work ≥25 years and outdoor work 0-4 years was 1.62 (95 % CI 1.07-2.42). The subgroup underground work ≥15 years deviated most in occurrence of cerebrovascular disease mortality compared with the external reference population: SMR (0.70 (95 % CI 0.56-0.85)). Employment in outdoor environments was associated with elevated rates of cerebrovascular disease mortality. In contrast, work in tempered underground employment was associated with a protecting effect.

  11. Outdoor Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayes, Valynda

    2010-01-01

    An outdoor classroom is the ideal vehicle for community involvement: Parents, native plant societies, 4-H, garden clubs, and master naturalists are all resources waiting to be tapped, as are local businesses offering support. If you enlist your community in the development and maintenance of your outdoor classroom, the entire community will…

  12. Outdoor Education and Mobile Learning: An Autobiographical Narrative Using Application-Based Information and Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolaeff, Ivan

    2016-01-01

    Although mobile learning using smartphones and applications or apps have the potential to inform and educate individuals in an outdoor environment, users may find that connectivity issues and basic knowledge of outdoor environments, including both physical and emotional, could be limited by what this technology provided. This study provided my…

  13. Place-Based Curriculum Making: Devising a Synthesis between Primary Geography and Outdoor Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, Anne M.

    2016-01-01

    Outdoor learning provides children with an opportunity to experience the interdisciplinary nature of the real world through interactions with each other and the planet. Geographical enquiry involves exploring the outdoors in an investigative capacity. Space, place and sustainability are three core concepts in primary geography, although…

  14. Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

    2000-02-14

    The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

  15. Developing a Mobile Learning Management System for Outdoors Nature Science Activities Based on 5E Learning Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Ah-Fur; Lai, Horng-Yih; Chuang, Wei-Hsiang; Wu, Zih-Heng

    2015-01-01

    Traditional outdoor learning activities such as inquiry-based learning in nature science encounter many dilemmas. Due to prompt development of mobile computing and widespread of mobile devices, mobile learning becomes a big trend on education. The main purpose of this study is to develop a mobile-learning management system for overcoming the…

  16. Model-Based Military Scenario Management for Defence Capability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gori, Ronnie; Chen, Pin; Pozgay, Angela

    2004-01-01

    .... This paper describes initial work towards the development of an information model that links scenario and capability related information, and the results of capability analysis and experimentation...

  17. The effect of a school-based outdoor education program on Visual ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Outdoor education in teaching and learning is being increasingly used as an ... development of the students' problem-solving and higher order thinking ...... Figure 6 Teacher profiles aiming at achieving more effective visual arts education with ...

  18. Comparisons between physics-based, engineering, and statistical learning models for outdoor sound propagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Carl R; Reznicek, Nathan J; Wilson, D Keith; Pettit, Chris L; Nykaza, Edward T

    2016-05-01

    Many outdoor sound propagation models exist, ranging from highly complex physics-based simulations to simplified engineering calculations, and more recently, highly flexible statistical learning methods. Several engineering and statistical learning models are evaluated by using a particular physics-based model, namely, a Crank-Nicholson parabolic equation (CNPE), as a benchmark. Narrowband transmission loss values predicted with the CNPE, based upon a simulated data set of meteorological, boundary, and source conditions, act as simulated observations. In the simulated data set sound propagation conditions span from downward refracting to upward refracting, for acoustically hard and soft boundaries, and low frequencies. Engineering models used in the comparisons include the ISO 9613-2 method, Harmonoise, and Nord2000 propagation models. Statistical learning methods used in the comparisons include bagged decision tree regression, random forest regression, boosting regression, and artificial neural network models. Computed skill scores are relative to sound propagation in a homogeneous atmosphere over a rigid ground. Overall skill scores for the engineering noise models are 0.6%, -7.1%, and 83.8% for the ISO 9613-2, Harmonoise, and Nord2000 models, respectively. Overall skill scores for the statistical learning models are 99.5%, 99.5%, 99.6%, and 99.6% for bagged decision tree, random forest, boosting, and artificial neural network regression models, respectively.

  19. Laser-based pedestrian tracking in outdoor environments by multiple mobile robots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozaki, Masataka; Kakimuma, Kei; Hashimoto, Masafumi; Takahashi, Kazuhiko

    2012-10-29

    This paper presents an outdoors laser-based pedestrian tracking system using a group of mobile robots located near each other. Each robot detects pedestrians from its own laser scan image using an occupancy-grid-based method, and the robot tracks the detected pedestrians via Kalman filtering and global-nearest-neighbor (GNN)-based data association. The tracking data is broadcast to multiple robots through intercommunication and is combined using the covariance intersection (CI) method. For pedestrian tracking, each robot identifies its own posture using real-time-kinematic GPS (RTK-GPS) and laser scan matching. Using our cooperative tracking method, all the robots share the tracking data with each other; hence, individual robots can always recognize pedestrians that are invisible to any other robot. The simulation and experimental results show that cooperating tracking provides the tracking performance better than conventional individual tracking does. Our tracking system functions in a decentralized manner without any central server, and therefore, this provides a degree of scalability and robustness that cannot be achieved by conventional centralized architectures.

  20. Assessment of outdoor radiofrequency electromagnetic field exposure through hotspot localization using kriging-based sequential sampling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aerts, Sam, E-mail: sam.aerts@intec.ugent.be; Deschrijver, Dirk; Verloock, Leen; Dhaene, Tom; Martens, Luc; Joseph, Wout

    2013-10-15

    In this study, a novel methodology is proposed to create heat maps that accurately pinpoint the outdoor locations with elevated exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) in an extensive urban region (or, hotspots), and that would allow local authorities and epidemiologists to efficiently assess the locations and spectral composition of these hotspots, while at the same time developing a global picture of the exposure in the area. Moreover, no prior knowledge about the presence of radiofrequency radiation sources (e.g., base station parameters) is required. After building a surrogate model from the available data using kriging, the proposed method makes use of an iterative sampling strategy that selects new measurement locations at spots which are deemed to contain the most valuable information—inside hotspots or in search of them—based on the prediction uncertainty of the model. The method was tested and validated in an urban subarea of Ghent, Belgium with a size of approximately 1 km{sup 2}. In total, 600 input and 50 validation measurements were performed using a broadband probe. Five hotspots were discovered and assessed, with maximum total electric-field strengths ranging from 1.3 to 3.1 V/m, satisfying the reference levels issued by the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection for exposure of the general public to RF-EMF. Spectrum analyzer measurements in these hotspots revealed five radiofrequency signals with a relevant contribution to the exposure. The radiofrequency radiation emitted by 900 MHz Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) base stations was always dominant, with contributions ranging from 45% to 100%. Finally, validation of the subsequent surrogate models shows high prediction accuracy, with the final model featuring an average relative error of less than 2 dB (factor 1.26 in electric-field strength), a correlation coefficient of 0.7, and a specificity of 0.96. -- Highlights: • We present an

  1. Assessment of outdoor radiofrequency electromagnetic field exposure through hotspot localization using kriging-based sequential sampling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aerts, Sam; Deschrijver, Dirk; Verloock, Leen; Dhaene, Tom; Martens, Luc; Joseph, Wout

    2013-01-01

    In this study, a novel methodology is proposed to create heat maps that accurately pinpoint the outdoor locations with elevated exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) in an extensive urban region (or, hotspots), and that would allow local authorities and epidemiologists to efficiently assess the locations and spectral composition of these hotspots, while at the same time developing a global picture of the exposure in the area. Moreover, no prior knowledge about the presence of radiofrequency radiation sources (e.g., base station parameters) is required. After building a surrogate model from the available data using kriging, the proposed method makes use of an iterative sampling strategy that selects new measurement locations at spots which are deemed to contain the most valuable information—inside hotspots or in search of them—based on the prediction uncertainty of the model. The method was tested and validated in an urban subarea of Ghent, Belgium with a size of approximately 1 km 2 . In total, 600 input and 50 validation measurements were performed using a broadband probe. Five hotspots were discovered and assessed, with maximum total electric-field strengths ranging from 1.3 to 3.1 V/m, satisfying the reference levels issued by the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection for exposure of the general public to RF-EMF. Spectrum analyzer measurements in these hotspots revealed five radiofrequency signals with a relevant contribution to the exposure. The radiofrequency radiation emitted by 900 MHz Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) base stations was always dominant, with contributions ranging from 45% to 100%. Finally, validation of the subsequent surrogate models shows high prediction accuracy, with the final model featuring an average relative error of less than 2 dB (factor 1.26 in electric-field strength), a correlation coefficient of 0.7, and a specificity of 0.96. -- Highlights: • We present an

  2. Treatment of hypogonadotropic male hypogonadism: Case-based scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosnoe-Shipley, Lindsey E; Elkelany, Osama O; Rahnema, Cyrus D; Kim, Edward D

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to review four case-based scenarios regarding the treatment of symptomatic hypogonadism in men. The article is designed as a review of published literature. We conducted a PubMed literature search for the time period of 1989-2014, concentrating on 26 studies investigating the efficacy of various therapeutic options on semen analysis, pregnancy outcomes, time to recovery of spermatogenesis, as well as serum and intratesticular testosterone levels. Our results demonstrated that exogenous testosterone suppresses intratesticular testosterone production, which is an absolute prerequisite for normal spermatogenesis. Cessation of exogenous testosterone should be recommended for men desiring to maintain their fertility. Therapies that protect the testis involve human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) therapy or selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs), but may also include low dose hCG with exogenous testosterone. Off-label use of SERMs, such as clomiphene citrate, are effective for maintaining testosterone production long-term and offer the convenience of representing a safe, oral therapy. At present, routine use of aromatase inhibitors is not recommended based on a lack of long-term data. We concluded that exogenous testosterone supplementation decreases sperm production. It was determined that clomiphene citrate is a safe and effective therapy for men who desire to maintain fertility. Although less frequently used in the general population, hCG therapy with or without testosterone supplementation represents an alternative treatment. PMID:25949938

  3. Evaluating Outdoor Water Use Demand under Changing Climatic and Demographic Conditions: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanta, L.; Berglund, E. Z.; Soh, M. H.

    2017-12-01

    Outdoor water-use for landscape and irrigation constitutes a significant end-use in total residential water demand. In periods of water shortages, utilities may reduce garden demands by implementing irrigation system audits, rebate programs, local ordinances, and voluntary or mandatory water-use restrictions. Because utilities do not typically record outdoor and indoor water-uses separately, the effects of policies for reducing garden demands cannot be readily calculated. The volume of water required to meet garden demands depends on the housing density, lawn size, type of vegetation, climatic conditions, efficiency of garden irrigation systems, and consumer water-use behaviors. Many existing outdoor demand estimation methods are deterministic and do not include consumer responses to conservation campaigns. In addition, mandatory restrictions may have a substantial impact on reducing outdoor demands, but the effectiveness of mandatory restrictions depends on the timing and the frequency of restrictions, in addition to the distribution of housing density and consumer types within a community. This research investigates a garden end-use model by coupling an agent-based modeling approach and a mechanistic-stochastic water demand model to create a methodology for estimating garden demand and evaluating demand reduction policies. The garden demand model is developed for two water utilities, using a diverse data sets, including residential customer billing records, outdoor conservation programs, frequency and type of mandatory water-use restrictions, lot size distribution, population growth, and climatic data. A set of garden irrigation parameter values, which are based on the efficiency of irrigation systems and irrigation habits of consumers, are determined for a set of conservation ordinances and restrictions. The model parameters are then validated using customer water usage data from the participating water utilities. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for garden

  4. Evaluation of outdoor human thermal sensation of local climate zones based on long-term database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, János; Skarbit, Nóra; Gál, Tamás

    2018-02-01

    This study gives a comprehensive picture on the diurnal and seasonal general outdoor human thermal sensation levels in different urban quarters based on long-term (almost 3 years) data series from urban and rural areas of Szeged, Hungary. It is supplemented with a case study dealing with an extreme heat wave period which is more and more frequent in the last decades in the study area. The intra-urban comparison is based on a thermal aspect classification of the surface, namely, the local climate zone (LCZ) system, on an urban meteorological station network and on the utilization of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) comfort index with categories calibrated to the local population. The selected stations represent sunlit areas well inside the LCZ areas. The results show that the seasonal and annual average magnitudes of the thermal load exerted by LCZs in the afternoon and evening follow their LCZ numbers. It is perfectly in line with the LCZ concept originally concentrating only on air temperature ( T air) differences between the zones. Our results justified the subdivision of urban areas into LCZs and give significant support to the application possibilities of the LCZ concept as a broader term covering different thermal phenomena.

  5. GOCE gravity field simulation based on actual mission scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pail, R.; Goiginger, H.; Mayrhofer, R.; Höck, E.; Schuh, W.-D.; Brockmann, J. M.; Krasbutter, I.; Fecher, T.; Gruber, T.

    2009-04-01

    In the framework of the ESA-funded project "GOCE High-level Processing Facility", an operational hardware and software system for the scientific processing (Level 1B to Level 2) of GOCE data has been set up by the European GOCE Gravity Consortium EGG-C. One key component of this software system is the processing of a spherical harmonic Earth's gravity field model and the corresponding full variance-covariance matrix from the precise GOCE orbit and calibrated and corrected satellite gravity gradiometry (SGG) data. In the framework of the time-wise approach a combination of several processing strategies for the optimum exploitation of the information content of the GOCE data has been set up: The Quick-Look Gravity Field Analysis is applied to derive a fast diagnosis of the GOCE system performance and to monitor the quality of the input data. In the Core Solver processing a rigorous high-precision solution of the very large normal equation systems is derived by applying parallel processing techniques on a PC cluster. Before the availability of real GOCE data, by means of a realistic numerical case study, which is based on the actual GOCE orbit and mission scenario and simulation data stemming from the most recent ESA end-to-end simulation, the expected GOCE gravity field performance is evaluated. Results from this simulation as well as recently developed features of the software system are presented. Additionally some aspects on data combination with complementary data sources are addressed.

  6. Thin-Film LSCs Based on PMMA Nanohybrid Coatings: Device Optimization and Outdoor Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. El-Bashir

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study concerns the design optimization of thin-film luminescent solar concentrators (TLSCs based on polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA/silica nanohybrid films doped with coumarin dyestuffs specialized in coloring plastics. Two designs of TLSCs had been prepared and characterized. The first consists of a transparent nanohybrid layer coated on a fluorescent PMMA substrate. The second design is the ordinary configuration in which fluorescent nanohybrid layer is coated on a transparent PMMA substrate. The investigation of the spectral properties and efficiency parameters recommended the best solar energy conversion efficiency for the second design. The outdoor performance of optimized TLSC was also evaluated under clear sky conditions of Riyadh city, and the hourly values of the optical efficiency, ηopt, were calculated for one year. The best performance was achieved in summer since the short circuit current for PV cell was doubled after being attached to TLSC and the value of ηopt reached 40% which is higher than other values recorded before due to the abundant solar energy potential in the Arabian Peninsula.

  7. Design and evaluation of a data-driven scenario generation framework for game-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luo, L.; Yin, H.; Cai, W.; Zhong, J.; Lees, M.

    Generating suitable game scenarios that can cater for individual players has become an emerging challenge in procedural content generation. In this paper, we propose a data-driven scenario generation framework for game-based training. An evolutionary scenario generation process is designed with a

  8. Assessment of outdoor radiofrequency electromagnetic field exposure through hotspot localization using kriging-based sequential sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Sam; Deschrijver, Dirk; Verloock, Leen; Dhaene, Tom; Martens, Luc; Joseph, Wout

    2013-10-01

    In this study, a novel methodology is proposed to create heat maps that accurately pinpoint the outdoor locations with elevated exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) in an extensive urban region (or, hotspots), and that would allow local authorities and epidemiologists to efficiently assess the locations and spectral composition of these hotspots, while at the same time developing a global picture of the exposure in the area. Moreover, no prior knowledge about the presence of radiofrequency radiation sources (e.g., base station parameters) is required. After building a surrogate model from the available data using kriging, the proposed method makes use of an iterative sampling strategy that selects new measurement locations at spots which are deemed to contain the most valuable information-inside hotspots or in search of them-based on the prediction uncertainty of the model. The method was tested and validated in an urban subarea of Ghent, Belgium with a size of approximately 1 km2. In total, 600 input and 50 validation measurements were performed using a broadband probe. Five hotspots were discovered and assessed, with maximum total electric-field strengths ranging from 1.3 to 3.1 V/m, satisfying the reference levels issued by the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection for exposure of the general public to RF-EMF. Spectrum analyzer measurements in these hotspots revealed five radiofrequency signals with a relevant contribution to the exposure. The radiofrequency radiation emitted by 900 MHz Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) base stations was always dominant, with contributions ranging from 45% to 100%. Finally, validation of the subsequent surrogate models shows high prediction accuracy, with the final model featuring an average relative error of less than 2dB (factor 1.26 in electric-field strength), a correlation coefficient of 0.7, and a specificity of 0.96. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights

  9. Is outdoor work associated with elevated rates of cerebrovascular disease mortality? : a cohort study based on iron-ore mining

    OpenAIRE

    Björ, Ove; Jonsson, Håkan; Damber, Lena; Burström, Lage; Nilsson, Tohr

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A cohort study that examined iron ore mining found negative associations between cumulative working time employed underground and several outcomes, including mortality of cerebrovascular diseases. In this cohort study, and using the same group of miners, we examined whether work in an outdoor environment could explain elevated cerebrovascular disease rates. METHODS: This study was based on a Swedish iron ore mining cohort consisting of 13,000 workers. Poisson regression models wer...

  10. Peripheral and gastrointestinal immune systems of healthy cattle raised outdoors at pasture or indoors on a concentrate-based ration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reilly Petrina

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite an increasing preference of consumers for beef produced from more extensive pasture-based production systems and potential human health benefits from the consumption of such beef, data regarding the health status of animals raised on pasture are limited. The objective of this study was to characterise specific aspects of the bovine peripheral and the gastrointestinal muscosal immune systems of cattle raised on an outdoor pasture system in comparison to animals raised on a conventional intensive indoor concentrate-based system. Results A number of in vitro functional tests of immune cells suggested subtle differences between the animals on the outdoor versus indoor production systems. There was a decrease in the number of neutrophils and monocytes engaged in phagocytosis in outdoor cattle (P P P P P P P Conclusion Despite distinctly contrasting production systems, only subtle differences were identified in the peripheral immune parameters measured between cattle raised at pasture in comparison to animals raised on a conventional intensive indoor concentrate-based production system.

  11. Outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. M. Bowker; Ashley Askew; H. Ken Cordell; John C. Bergstrom

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsBy 2060, the number of southern adults participating in each of 10 different popular outdoor recreation activities is projected to increase. Depending on future demographic, economic, land use, and population changes, the activity demonstrating the least growth in participants is hunting (8–25 percent). The activity projected to...

  12. Influence of outdoor running fatigue and medial tibial stress syndrome on accelerometer-based loading and stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schütte, Kurt H; Seerden, Stefan; Venter, Rachel; Vanwanseele, Benedicte

    2018-01-01

    Medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS) is a common overuse running injury with pathomechanics likely to be exaggerated by fatigue. Wearable accelerometry provides a novel alternative to assess biomechanical parameters continuously while running in more ecologically valid settings. The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of outdoor running fatigue and MTSS on both dynamic loading and dynamic stability derived from trunk and tibial accelerometery. Runners with (n=14) and without (n=16) history of MTSS performed an outdoor fatigue run of 3200m. Accelerometer-based measures averaged per lap included dynamic loading of the trunk and tibia (i.e. axial peak positive acceleration, signal power magnitude, and shock attenuation) as well as dynamic trunk stability (i.e. tri-axial root mean square ratio, step and stride regularity, and sample entropy). Regression coefficients from generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate group by fatigue interactions. No evidence could be found for dynamic loading being higher with fatigue in runners with MTSS history (all measures p>0.05). One significant group by running fatigue interaction effect was detected for dynamic stability. Specifically, in MTSS only, decreases mediolateral sample entropy i.e. loss of complexity was associated with running fatigue (prunning state. We suggest that a practical outdoor running fatigue protocol that concurrently captures trunk accelerometry-based movement complexity warrants further prospective investigation as an in-situ screening tool for MTSS individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Scenario-Based Digital Forensics Challenges in Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Miranda Lopez

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of digital forensics is to extract information to answer the 5Ws (Why, When, Where, What, and Who from the data extracted from the evidence. In order to achieve this, most digital forensic processes assume absolute control of digital evidence. However, in a cloud environment forensic investigation, this is not always possible. Additionally, the unique characteristics of cloud computing create new technical, legal and architectural challenges when conducting a forensic investigation. We propose a hypothetical scenario to uncover and explain the challenges forensic practitioners face during cloud investigations. Additionally, we also provide solutions to address the challenges. Our hypothetical case scenario has shown that, in the long run, better live forensic tools, development of new methods tailored for cloud investigations and new procedures and standards are indeed needed. Furthermore, we have come to the conclusion that forensic investigations biggest challenge is not technical but legal.

  14. Land use change modeling through scenario-based cellular automata Markov: improving spatial forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh

    2018-05-08

    Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.

  15. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  16. Investigating the Efficiency of Scenario Based Learning and Reflective Learning Approaches in Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hursen, Cigdem; Fasli, Funda Gezer

    2017-01-01

    The main purpose of this research is to investigate the efficiency of scenario based learning and reflective learning approaches in teacher education. The impact of applications of scenario based learning and reflective learning on prospective teachers' academic achievement and views regarding application and professional self-competence…

  17. Can we establish relationship between outdoor air ventilation and health based on the published epidemiological data?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carrer, Paolo; Wargocki, Pawel; Fanetti, Annaclara

    2015-01-01

    Appropriate exposure control is prerogative for reducing the burden of disease (BOD) due to inadequate air quality indoors (IAQ). Ventilation with outdoor air is one of the available exposure control methods and is widespread. It is often assumed that this method will bring tangible effects...... exposures at various levels of ventilation were no characterized. It was observed that available data have many limitations, such as insufficient statistical power, incomplete data on the strength of pollution sources, diversity and variability of ventilation rates, at which effects have been seen...... exposures affecting health. It is concluded, that currently available epidemiological data do not provide sound basis for outdoor air ventilation requirements that can be universally applicable in different public and residential buildings to protect against health risks. They show minimum rates at which...

  18. Committed dose assessment based on background outdoor gamma exposure in Chihuahua City, Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luevano G, S.; Perez T, A.; Pinedo A, C.; Renteria V, M.; Carrillo F, J.; Montero C, M. E.

    2015-10-01

    Full text: Determining ionizing radiation in a geographic area serves to assess its effects on populations health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial distribution of the background environmental outdoor gamma dose rates in Chihuahua City. This study also estimated the committed dose and the lifetime cancer risks of the population of this city. To determine the outdoor gamma dose rate in air, annual effective dose, and the lifetime cancer risk, 48 sampling points were randomly selected along the Chihuahua City. Outdoor gamma dose rate measurements were carried out by using a Geiger-Muller counter. At the same sites, 48 soil samples were taken to obtain the activity concentrations of 226 Ra, 232 Th, 40 K and their terrestrial gamma dose rates. Radioisotope activity concentrations were determined by gamma spectrometry. Outdoor gamma dose rates ranged from 56 to 193 n Gy h -1 . Results indicated that lifetime effective dose to inhabitants of Chihuahua City is in average of 19.8 mSv, resulting in a lifetime cancer risk of 0.001. In addition, the mean of activity concentrations in soil were 51.8, 73.1, and 1096.5 Bq kg -1 , of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K, respectively. From the analysis of the spatial distribution of 232 Th, 226 Ra, and 40 K is to north, to north-center, and to south of city, respectively. In conclusion, natural background gamma dose received by inhabitants of Chihuahua City is high and mainly due to geological characteristics of the zone. (Author)

  19. Committed dose assessment based on background outdoor gamma exposure in Chihuahua City, Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luevano G, S.; Perez T, A.; Pinedo A, C.; Renteria V, M. [Universidad Autonoma de Chihuahua, Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecologia, Perif. Francisco R. Almada Km 1, 31415 Chihuahua, Chih. (Mexico); Carrillo F, J.; Montero C, M. E., E-mail: mrenteria@uach.mx [Centro de Investigacion en Materiales Avanzados, Miguel de Cervantes 120, 31136 Chihuahua, Chih. (Mexico)

    2015-10-15

    Full text: Determining ionizing radiation in a geographic area serves to assess its effects on populations health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial distribution of the background environmental outdoor gamma dose rates in Chihuahua City. This study also estimated the committed dose and the lifetime cancer risks of the population of this city. To determine the outdoor gamma dose rate in air, annual effective dose, and the lifetime cancer risk, 48 sampling points were randomly selected along the Chihuahua City. Outdoor gamma dose rate measurements were carried out by using a Geiger-Muller counter. At the same sites, 48 soil samples were taken to obtain the activity concentrations of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th, {sup 40}K and their terrestrial gamma dose rates. Radioisotope activity concentrations were determined by gamma spectrometry. Outdoor gamma dose rates ranged from 56 to 193 n Gy h{sup -1}. Results indicated that lifetime effective dose to inhabitants of Chihuahua City is in average of 19.8 mSv, resulting in a lifetime cancer risk of 0.001. In addition, the mean of activity concentrations in soil were 51.8, 73.1, and 1096.5 Bq kg{sup -1}, of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K, respectively. From the analysis of the spatial distribution of {sup 232}Th, {sup 226}Ra, and {sup 40}K is to north, to north-center, and to south of city, respectively. In conclusion, natural background gamma dose received by inhabitants of Chihuahua City is high and mainly due to geological characteristics of the zone. (Author)

  20. Lifetime Effective Dose Assessment Based on Background Outdoor Gamma Exposure in Chihuahua City, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Luevano-Gurrola

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Determining ionizing radiation in a geographic area serves to assess its effects on a population’s health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial distribution of the background environmental outdoor gamma dose rates in Chihuahua City. This study also estimated the annual effective dose and the lifetime cancer risks of the population of this city. To determine the outdoor gamma dose rate in air, the annual effective dose and the lifetime cancer risk, 48 sampling points were randomly selected in Chihuahua City. Outdoor gamma dose rate measurements were carried out by using a Geiger-Müller counter. Outdoor gamma dose rates ranged from 113 to 310 nGy·h−1. At the same sites, 48 soil samples were taken to obtain the activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K and to calculate their terrestrial gamma dose rates. Radioisotope activity concentrations were determined by gamma spectrometry. Calculated gamma dose rates ranged from 56 to 193 nGy·h−1. Results indicated that the lifetime effective dose of the inhabitants of Chihuahua City is on average 19.8 mSv, resulting in a lifetime cancer risk of 0.001. In addition, the mean of the activity concentrations in soil were 52, 73 and 1097 Bq·kg−1, for 226Ra, 232Th and 40K, respectively. From the analysis, the spatial distribution of 232Th, 226Ra and 40K is to the north, to the north-center and to the south of city, respectively. In conclusion, the natural background gamma dose received by the inhabitants of Chihuahua City is high and mainly due to the geological characteristics of the zone. From the radiological point of view, this kind of study allows us to identify the importance of manmade environments, which are often highly variable and difficult to characterize.

  1. Lifetime Effective Dose Assessment Based on Background Outdoor Gamma Exposure in Chihuahua City, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luevano-Gurrola, Sergio; Perez-Tapia, Angelica; Pinedo-Alvarez, Carmelo; Carrillo-Flores, Jorge; Montero-Cabrera, Maria Elena; Renteria-Villalobos, Marusia

    2015-09-30

    Determining ionizing radiation in a geographic area serves to assess its effects on a population's health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial distribution of the background environmental outdoor gamma dose rates in Chihuahua City. This study also estimated the annual effective dose and the lifetime cancer risks of the population of this city. To determine the outdoor gamma dose rate in air, the annual effective dose and the lifetime cancer risk, 48 sampling points were randomly selected in Chihuahua City. Outdoor gamma dose rate measurements were carried out by using a Geiger-Müller counter. Outdoor gamma dose rates ranged from 113 to 310 nGy·h(-1). At the same sites, 48 soil samples were taken to obtain the activity concentrations of (226)Ra, (232)Th and (40)K and to calculate their terrestrial gamma dose rates. Radioisotope activity concentrations were determined by gamma spectrometry. Calculated gamma dose rates ranged from 56 to 193 nGy·h(-1). Results indicated that the lifetime effective dose of the inhabitants of Chihuahua City is on average 19.8 mSv, resulting in a lifetime cancer risk of 0.001. In addition, the mean of the activity concentrations in soil were 52, 73 and 1097 Bq·kg(-1), for (226)Ra, (232)Th and (40)K, respectively. From the analysis, the spatial distribution of (232)Th, (226)Ra and (40)K is to the north, to the north-center and to the south of city, respectively. In conclusion, the natural background gamma dose received by the inhabitants of Chihuahua City is high and mainly due to the geological characteristics of the zone. From the radiological point of view, this kind of study allows us to identify the importance of manmade environments, which are often highly variable and difficult to characterize.

  2. Lifetime Effective Dose Assessment Based on Background Outdoor Gamma Exposure in Chihuahua City, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luevano-Gurrola, Sergio; Perez-Tapia, Angelica; Pinedo-Alvarez, Carmelo; Carrillo-Flores, Jorge; Montero-Cabrera, Maria Elena; Renteria-Villalobos, Marusia

    2015-01-01

    Determining ionizing radiation in a geographic area serves to assess its effects on a population’s health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial distribution of the background environmental outdoor gamma dose rates in Chihuahua City. This study also estimated the annual effective dose and the lifetime cancer risks of the population of this city. To determine the outdoor gamma dose rate in air, the annual effective dose and the lifetime cancer risk, 48 sampling points were randomly selected in Chihuahua City. Outdoor gamma dose rate measurements were carried out by using a Geiger-Müller counter. Outdoor gamma dose rates ranged from 113 to 310 nGy·h−1. At the same sites, 48 soil samples were taken to obtain the activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K and to calculate their terrestrial gamma dose rates. Radioisotope activity concentrations were determined by gamma spectrometry. Calculated gamma dose rates ranged from 56 to 193 nGy·h−1. Results indicated that the lifetime effective dose of the inhabitants of Chihuahua City is on average 19.8 mSv, resulting in a lifetime cancer risk of 0.001. In addition, the mean of the activity concentrations in soil were 52, 73 and 1097 Bq·kg−1, for 226Ra, 232Th and 40K, respectively. From the analysis, the spatial distribution of 232Th, 226Ra and 40K is to the north, to the north-center and to the south of city, respectively. In conclusion, the natural background gamma dose received by the inhabitants of Chihuahua City is high and mainly due to the geological characteristics of the zone. From the radiological point of view, this kind of study allows us to identify the importance of manmade environments, which are often highly variable and difficult to characterize. PMID:26437425

  3. Outdoor recreation and ethnicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentin, Sandra

    recreation, activities, and preferred outdoor recreation areas) between the minority and majority populations and related these differences to the ethnic minorities’ cultural background. The second paper presents the empirical work of this thesis, which is based on a survey of adolescents’ outdoor recreation....... In the UK the focus on underrepresented groups seems closely related to the focus on equality for access, while specific focus on access for ethnic minorities is not addressed in the forest and nature legislation and the national forest programs in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands. Paper 4 proposes...

  4. Scenario-based approach adopted in the ELECTRA project for deriving innovative control room functionality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinelli, Mattia; Heussen, Kai; Prostejovsky, Alexander Maria

    2017-01-01

    Here, the authors analyse the operator point of view of the Web-of-Cells concept defined in the EU project ELECTRA, by identifying operator tasks into the supervision of a highly automated power system, and the information requirements to facilitate appropriate operator situation awareness...... have been identified based on the Web-of-Cells control concept. The authors considered scenarios that challenge traditional control schemes, scenarios that caused major failures (i.e. blackouts), and scenarios that can be expected to appear in the future. For each scenario, information concerning...

  5. The Design and Effect of Automated Directions During Scenario-based Training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, Marieke; Bosch, Karel van den; Meyer, John-Jules Ch.; Neerincx, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    During scenario-based training, the scenario is dynamically adapted in real time to control the storyline and increase its effectiveness. A team of experienced staff members is required to manage and perform the adaptations. They manipulate the storyline and the level of support during their

  6. The design and effect of automated directions during scenario-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Bosch, K. van den; Meyer, J.J.C.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    During scenario-based training, the scenario is dynamically adapted in real time to control the storyline and increase its effectiveness. A team of experienced staff members is required to manage and perform the adaptations. They manipulate the storyline and the level of support during their

  7. Multilingual and Multicultural Task-Based Learning Scenarios: A Pilot Study from the MAGICC Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez, Inma; Pérez-Cavana, María Luisa

    2015-01-01

    In this article we report on the results of a pilot study on the use of task-based multilingual and multicultural professional scenarios for higher education teachers and learners at BA and MA level. The scenarios reflect new learning outcomes and assessment criteria for the presently under-conceptualised domain of communication in multilingual…

  8. A Problem-Based Learning Scenario That Can Be Used in Science Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sezgin Selçuk, Gamze

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to introduce a problem-based learning (PBL) scenario that elementary school science teachers in middle school (5th-8th grades) can use in their in-service training. The scenario treats the subjects of heat, temperature and thermal expansion within the scope of the 5th and 6th grade science course syllabi and has been…

  9. Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

    2009-01-01

    Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as

  10. Accessing technical data bases using STDS: A collection of scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardgrave, W. T.

    1975-01-01

    A line by line description is given of sessions using the set-theoretic data system (STDS) to interact with technical data bases. The data bases contain data from actual applications at NASA Langley Research Center. The report is meant to be a tutorial document that accompanies set processing in a network environment.

  11. The application of One Health concept to an outdoor problem-based learning activity for veterinary students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. Tengku Rinalfi Putra

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The One Health (OH approach, which seeks to bring together human and animal health, is particularly suited to the effective management of zoonotic diseases across both sectors. To overcome professional silos, OH needs to be taught at the undergraduate level. Here, we describe a problem-based learning activity using the OH approach that was conducted outdoors for 3rd-year veterinary students in Malaysia. Materials and Methods: A total of 118 students, divided into two groups, completed the activity which spanned 1½ days at a deer park adjacent to a wilderness area. Students were asked to evaluate the activity using an online survey that had quantitative and qualitative components. Results: Response rate was 69.5%. The activity was rated excellent by 69.5% and good by 30.4%. Levels of satisfaction were high on a range of criteria. 97.5% of students intended to take action in their studies as a result of what they had learned. Conclusions: Delivery of an outdoor problem-based learning activity using OH approach was very successful in terms of participation, knowledge delivery and understanding, and the willingness of students to integrate OH into their future practice. For the improvement of future programs, the involvement of other disciplines (such as Medical, Biology, Biotechnology, Biomedical, and Public Health is being considered.

  12. Mannich Bases: An Important Pharmacophore in Present Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suman Bala

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mannich bases are the end products of Mannich reaction and are known as beta-amino ketone carrying compounds. Mannich reaction is a carbon-carbon bond forming nucleophilic addition reaction and is a key step in synthesis of a wide variety of natural products, pharmaceuticals, and so forth. Mannich reaction is important for the construction of nitrogen containing compounds. There is a number of aminoalkyl chain bearing Mannich bases like fluoxetine, atropine, ethacrynic acid, trihexyphenidyl, and so forth with high curative value. The literature studies enlighten the fact that Mannich bases are very reactive and recognized to possess potent diverse activities like anti-inflammatory, anticancer, antifilarial, antibacterial, antifungal, anticonvulsant, anthelmintic, antitubercular, analgesic, anti-HIV, antimalarial, antipsychotic, antiviral activities and so forth. The biological activity of Mannich bases is mainly attributed to α, β-unsaturated ketone which can be generated by deamination of hydrogen atom of the amine group.

  13. An Architectural Decision Tool Based on Scenarios and Non-functional Requirements

    OpenAIRE

    Mr. Mahesh Parmar; Prof. W.U. Khan; Dr. Binod Kumar

    2011-01-01

    Software architecture design is often based on architects intuition and previous experience. Little methodological support is available, but there are still no effective solutions to guide the architectural design. The most difficult activity is the transformation from non-functional requirement specification into software architecture. To achieve above things proposed “An Architectural Decision Tool Based on Scenarios and Nonfunctional Requirementsâ€. In this proposed tool scenarios are fi...

  14. Scenario-based approach for flexible resource loading under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wullink, G.; Gademann, A.J.R.M.; Hans, E.W.; Harten, van A.

    2004-01-01

    Order acceptance decisions in manufacture-to-order environments are often made based on incomplete or uncertain information. To quote reliable due dates in order processing, manage resource capacity adequately and take into account uncertainty, the paper presents and analyses models and tools for

  15. Six scenarios of exploiting an ontology based, mobilized learning environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kismihók, G.; Szabó, I.; Vas, R.

    2012-01-01

    In this article, six different exploitation possibilities of an educational ontology based, mobilized learning management system are presented. The focal point of this system is the educational ontology model. The first version of this educational ontology model serves as a foundation for curriculum

  16. Scenario-Based Programming, Usability-Oriented Perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandron, Giora; Armoni, Michal; Gordon, Michal; Harel, David

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we discuss the possible connection between the programming language and the paradigm behind it, and programmers' tendency to adopt an external or internal perspective of the system they develop. Based on a qualitative analysis, we found that when working with the visual, interobject language of live sequence charts (LSC),…

  17. Product design pattern based on big data-driven scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conggang Yu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses about new product design patterns in the big data era, gives designer a new rational thinking way, and is a new way to understand the design of the product. Based on the key criteria of the product design process, category, element, and product are used to input the data, which comprises concrete data and abstract data as an enlargement of the criteria of product design process for the establishment of a big data-driven product design pattern’s model. Moreover, an experiment and a product design case are conducted to verify the feasibility of the new pattern. Ultimately, we will conclude that the data-driven product design has two patterns: one is the concrete data supporting the product design, namely “product–data–product” pattern, and the second is based on the value of the abstract data for product design, namely “data–product–data” pattern. Through the data, users are involving themselves in the design development process. Data and product form a huge network, and data plays a role of connection or node. So the essence of the design is to find a new connection based on element, and to find a new node based on category.

  18. Predicting compliance with an information-based residential outdoor water conservation program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landon, Adam C.; Kyle, Gerard T.; Kaiser, Ronald A.

    2016-05-01

    Residential water conservation initiatives often involve some form of education or persuasion intended to change the attitudes and behaviors of residential consumers. However, the ability of these instruments to change attitudes toward conservation and their efficacy in affecting water use remains poorly understood. In this investigation the authors examine consumer attitudes toward complying with a persuasive water conservation program, the extent to which those attitudes predict compliance, and the influence of environmental contextual factors on outdoor water use. Results indicate that the persuasive program was successful in developing positive attitudes toward compliance, and that those attitudes predict water use. However, attitudinal variables explain a relatively small proportion of the variance in objectively measured water use behavior. Recommendations for policy are made stressing the importance of understanding both the effects of attitudes and environmental contextual factors in behavior change initiatives in the municipal water sector.

  19. Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

    2015-08-01

    In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines - Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, runup and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite of Horseshoe and Marques Pombal fault as the worst case scenario. It governs the aggregate scenario with about 60 % and inundates an area of 3.5 km2.

  20. Integrated algorithms for RFID-based multi-sensor indoor/outdoor positioning solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Mi.; Retscher, G.; Zhang, K.

    2011-12-01

    Position information is very important as people need it almost everywhere all the time. However, it is a challenging task to provide precise positions indoor/outdoor seamlessly. Outdoor positioning has been widely studied and accurate positions can usually be achieved by well developed GPS techniques but these techniques are difficult to be used indoors since GPS signal reception is limited. The alternative techniques that can be used for indoor positioning include, to name a few, Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN), bluetooth and Ultra Wideband (UWB) etc.. However, all of these have limitations. The main objectives of this paper are to investigate and develop algorithms for a low-cost and portable indoor personal positioning system using Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) and its integration with other positioning systems. An RFID system consists of three components, namely a control unit, an interrogator and a transponder that transmits data and communicates with the reader. An RFID tag can be incorporated into a product, animal or person for the purpose of identification and tracking using radio waves. In general, for RFID positioning in urban and indoor environments three different methods can be used, including cellular positioning, trilateration and location fingerprinting. In addition, the integration of RFID with other technologies is also discussed in this paper. A typical combination is to integrate RFID with relative positioning technologies such as MEMS INS to bridge the gaps between RFID tags for continuous positioning applications. Experiments are shown to demonstrate the improvements of integrating multiple sensors with RFID which can be employed successfully for personal positioning.

  1. Some Outdoor Educators' Experiences of Outdoor Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Terry

    2006-01-01

    The phenomenological study presented in this paper attempts to determine, from outdoor educators, what it meant for them to be teaching outdoor education in Victorian secondary schools during 2004. In 1999, Lugg and Martin surveyed Victorian secondary schools to determine the types of outdoor education programs being run, the objectives of those…

  2. Based on user interest level of modeling scenarios and browse content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yang

    2017-08-01

    User interest modeling is the core of personalized service, taking into account the impact of situational information on user preferences, the user behavior days of financial information. This paper proposes a method of user interest modeling based on scenario information, which is obtained by calculating the similarity of the situation. The user's current scene of the approximate scenario set; on the "user - interest items - scenarios" three-dimensional model using the situation pre-filtering method of dimension reduction processing. View the content of the user interested in the theme, the analysis of the page content to get each topic of interest keywords, based on the level of vector space model user interest. The experimental results show that the user interest model based on the scenario information is within 9% of the user's interest prediction, which is effective.

  3. Product design pattern based on big data-driven scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Conggang Yu; Lusha Zhu

    2016-01-01

    This article discusses about new product design patterns in the big data era, gives designer a new rational thinking way, and is a new way to understand the design of the product. Based on the key criteria of the product design process, category, element, and product are used to input the data, which comprises concrete data and abstract data as an enlargement of the criteria of product design process for the establishment of a big data-driven product design pattern’s model. Moreover, an exper...

  4. Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on the SRES B2 Scenario, 1990-2100

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 Scenario, 1990-2100, were based on the UN 1998...

  5. Desirability and feasibility of sustainable urban transport systems. An expert-based strategic scenario approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nijkamp, P.; Ouwersloot, H.; Rienstra, S.A. [Department of Spatial Economics, Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    1995-09-01

    Current trends in transport indicate that the system is moving away from sustainability and that major changes are necessary to make the transport system more compatible with environmental sustainability. Main problems may occur in urban transport, where not many promising solutions are expected, while the problems are severe. In view of the great number of uncertainties, we will in our paper resort to scenarios. In the paper, expert scenarios, which lead to a sustainable transport system are constructed by applying the recently developed `Spider model`. Based on a set of distinct characteristics, leading to eight axes in the spatial, institutional, economic and social-psychological field, an evaluation framework is constructed, which visualizes the driving forces that largely influence the future of the transport system. Next, expected and desired scenarios are constructed by means of opinions of Dutch transport experts - both average scenarios and scenarios of segments of the respondents - which have been investigated by means of a survey. The expected scenarios indicate that many current trends will continue, while the transport system is largely the same as the current one. The desired scenarios on the other hand, suggest the emergence and the need for a more collective system, in which also many new modes are operating. In the paper the resulting urban transport systems are also discussed. By calculating the CO2 emissions in the average expected and desired scenario, it appears that the expected scenario does not lead to a large scale reduction of those emissions; the desired scenario however, may lead to a large scale reduction of the emissions. The conclusion is that the differences in expert opinion are small and that the road towards a sustainable (urban) transport system is still far away, although the compact city concept may perhaps offer some solution. 6 figs., 2 tabs., 18 refs.

  6. Scenario Analysis of Soil and Water Conservation in Xiejia Watershed Based on Improved CSLE Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jieying; Yu, Ming; Wu, Yong; Huang, Yao; Nie, Yawen

    2018-01-01

    According to the existing research results and related data, use the scenario analysis method, to evaluate the effects of different soil and water conservation measures on soil erosion in a small watershed. Based on the analysis of soil erosion scenarios and model simulation budgets in the study area, it is found that all scenarios simulated soil erosion rates are lower than the present situation of soil erosion in 2013. Soil and water conservation measures are more effective in reducing soil erosion than soil and water conservation biological measures and soil and water conservation tillage measures.

  7. The Effect of a School-Based Outdoor Education Program on Visual Arts Teachers' Success and Self-Efficacy Beliefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hursen, Cigdem; Islek, Didem

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this research is to determine the effect of an education programme developed based on the school-based outdoor education approach on the academic achievement of visual arts teachers, as well as their self-efficacy beliefs for using museums and the natural environment. The aim is likewise to explore the views of the teachers on the…

  8. A systemic examination of the introduction of an outdoor learning-based science curriculum to students, their teacher, and the school principal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunker, Molly Louis

    The outdoor environment has been under-utilized as a legitimate setting for learning within the formal school context, resulting in few examples of curriculum materials that integrate the indoors and outdoors. This systemic problem is explored holistically through investigation of key sets of players in the school system. The overarching research question is "What is the role and value of integrated outdoor learning experiences within the school system?" I developed an eight-week Earth systems science unit grounded in research-based design principles. One teacher enacted the unit with 111 sixth graders, whose learning gains and perspectives of the role and value of integrated outdoor learning experiences were explored using a mixed-methods approach in a pre-post study design, including individual interviews, and instruments regarding students' perspectives of the outdoor component of the curricular enactment. I conducted six interviews with the participating teacher and one interview with the school principal, to explore their perspectives of the role of outdoor learning experiences, and their personal roles in the unit. The main finding from this study was that the outdoor component of the curriculum enhanced coherence---connectedness across science concepts, activities, and learning environments. Higher ability students were more aware of connections than lower ability students. Field experiences were seen as a tool for learning, and all students achieved substantial learning gains. The teacher viewed the role of the outdoor experiences as a way to engage students, and promote connections across the unit through firsthand and relevant experiences. The school principal viewed his role as supporting teachers in their practice and encouraging risk-taking and creativity in instructional approaches. This study is a valuable contribution to the field as it (1) identifies outdoor learning experiences as one way to enhance intraunit coherence, and (2) highlights

  9. Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

    OpenAIRE

    Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

    2009-01-01

    Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as challenging and useful, but also highlighted problems of distributed communication. The findings were used to improve the training as well as current use of the technology in the organisation. Research ...

  10. Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

    2015-04-01

    It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The

  11. The Rainfall Intensity Effects on 1–13 GHz UWB-Based 5G System for Outdoor Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joko Suryana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports a research contribution on tropical outdoor channel characterization in 1–13 GHz band for 5G systems. This 1–13 GHz ultra-wideband (UWB channel characterization is formulated with rain intensity as the most important variable, from 20 mm/h to 200 mm/h. Tropical rain will cause pulse broadening and distorts the transmitted symbols, so the probability of symbol errors will increase. In this research, the bit error rate (BER performance evaluation is done using both matched filtering or correlator-based receivers. At no rain conditions, BER 10−6 will be attained at signal to noise ratio (SNR 5 dB, but at rainfall intensity 200 mm/h, the BER will fall to 10−2 for matched filter and 5×10-2 for correlator-based receivers. For improving the BER performance, an adaptive nonlinear phase equalizer is proposed which adopts multiple allpass biquad infinite impulse response (IIR filters combined with low-order finite impulse response (FIR filter to mitigate the nonlinearity phase and differential attenuation of magnitude responses due to antenna and tropical outdoor UWB channel effects. Our simulation results show that the proposed equalizer has worked successfully with BER 10−6 on the rain rate that is exceeded for 0.01% of the time (R0.01 rain intensity or 99.99% availability. In addition, at rainfall rate 120 mm/h, the proposed nonlinear phase equalizer can give 9 dB signal improvement.

  12. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

    2006-07-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  13. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

    2006-01-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  14. The variation of health effects based on the scenarios considering release parameters and meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Jong Tae; Ha, Jae Joo

    2000-01-01

    The variation of health effects resulting from the severe accidents of the YGN 3 and 4 nuclear power plants was examined based on scenarios considering the release parameters and meteorological data. The release parameters and meteorological data considered in making basic scenarios are release height, heat content, release time, warning time, wind speed, rainfall rate, and atmospheric stability class. The seasonal scenarios were also made in order to estimate the seasonal variation of health effects by considering seasonal characteristics of Korea. According to the results, there are large differences in consequence analysis from scenario to although an equal amount of radioactive materials is released to the atmosphere. Also, there are large differences in health effects from season to season due to distinct seasonal characteristics of Korea. Therefore, it is necessary to consider seasonal characteristics in developing optimum emergency response strategies

  15. Outdoor recreation and ethnicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentin, Sandra

    recreation, activities, and preferred outdoor recreation areas) between the minority and majority populations and related these differences to the ethnic minorities’ cultural background. The second paper presents the empirical work of this thesis, which is based on a survey of adolescents’ outdoor recreation...... often reported using green areas to “drink beer with friends” and “do sunbathing”. The third paper reflects on the different national approaches towards ethnic minorities’ access to natural areas, in four example-countries Germany, Denmark, United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. This was done through....... In the UK the focus on underrepresented groups seems closely related to the focus on equality for access, while specific focus on access for ethnic minorities is not addressed in the forest and nature legislation and the national forest programs in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands. Paper 4 proposes...

  16. Event-based scenario manager for multibody dynamics simulation of heavy load lifting operations in shipyards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sol Ha

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper suggests an event-based scenario manager capable of creating and editing a scenario for shipbuilding process simulation based on multibody dynamics. To configure various situation in shipyards and easily connect with multibody dynamics, the proposed method has two main concepts: an Actor and an Action List. The Actor represents the anatomic unit of action in the multibody dynamics and can be connected to a specific component of the dynamics kernel such as the body and joint. The user can make a scenario up by combining the actors. The Action List contains information for arranging and executing the actors. Since the shipbuilding process is a kind of event-based sequence, all simulation models were configured using Discrete EVent System Specification (DEVS formalism. The proposed method was applied to simulations of various operations in shipyards such as lifting and erection of a block and heavy load lifting operation using multiple cranes.

  17. Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [University of Texas at Dallas; Feng, Cong [University of Texas at Dallas; Wang, Zhenke [University of Texas at Dallas; Zhang, Jie [University of Texas at Dallas

    2018-02-01

    Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power and currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start-time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

  18. Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Feng, Cong [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Wang, Zhenke [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Zhang, Jie [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States)

    2017-08-31

    Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

  19. An activity theory perspective of how scenario-based simulations support learning: a descriptive analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battista, Alexis

    2017-01-01

    The dominant frameworks for describing how simulations support learning emphasize increasing access to structured practice and the provision of feedback which are commonly associated with skills-based simulations. By contrast, studies examining student participants' experiences during scenario-based simulations suggest that learning may also occur through participation. However, studies directly examining student participation during scenario-based simulations are limited. This study examined the types of activities student participants engaged in during scenario-based simulations and then analyzed their patterns of activity to consider how participation may support learning. Drawing from Engeström's first-, second-, and third-generation activity systems analysis, an in-depth descriptive analysis was conducted. The study drew from multiple qualitative methods, namely narrative, video, and activity systems analysis, to examine student participants' activities and interaction patterns across four video-recorded simulations depicting common motivations for using scenario-based simulations (e.g., communication, critical patient management). The activity systems analysis revealed that student participants' activities encompassed three clinically relevant categories, including (a) use of physical clinical tools and artifacts, (b) social interactions, and (c) performance of structured interventions. Role assignment influenced participants' activities and the complexity of their engagement. Importantly, participants made sense of the clinical situation presented in the scenario by reflexively linking these three activities together. Specifically, student participants performed structured interventions, relying upon the use of physical tools, clinical artifacts, and social interactions together with interactions between students, standardized patients, and other simulated participants to achieve their goals. When multiple student participants were present, such as in a

  20. Outdoors classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szymanska-Markowska, Barbara

    2016-04-01

    Why should students be trapped within the four walls of the classroom when there are a lot of ideas to have lessons led in the different way? I am not a fan of having lessons at school. For many students it is also boring to stay only at school, too. So I decided to organize workshops and trips to Universities or outdoors. I created KMO ( Discoverer's Club for Teenagers) at my school where students gave me some ideas and we started to make them real. I teach at school where students don't like science. I try hard to change their point of view about it. That's why I started to take parts in different competitions with my students. Last year we measured noise everywhere by the use of applications on a tablet to convince them that noise is very harmful for our body and us. We examined that the most harmful noises were at school's breaks, near the motorways and in the households. We also proved that acoustic screens, which were near the motorways, didn't protect us from noise. We measured that 30 meters from the screens the noise is the same as the motorway. We won the main prize for these measurements. We also got awards for calculating the costs of a car supplied by powered by a solar panel. We measured everything by computer. This year we decided to write an essay about trees and weather. We went to the forest and found the cut trees because we wanted to read the age of tree from the stump. I hadn't known earlier that we could read the weather from the tree's grain. We examined a lot of trees and we can tell that trees are good carriers of information about weather and natural disasters. I started studies safety education and I have a lot of ideas how to get my students interested in this subject that is similar to P.E., physics and chemistry, too. I hope that I will use my abilities from European Space Education Resource Office and GIFT workshop. I plan to use satellite and space to teach my students how they can check information about terrorism, floods or other

  1. Scenario-based fitted Q-iteration for adaptive control of water reservoir systems under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertoni, Federica; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Over recent years, mathematical models have largely been used to support planning and management of water resources systems. Yet, the increasing uncertainties in their inputs - due to increased variability in the hydrological regimes - are a major challenge to the optimal operations of these systems. Such uncertainty, boosted by projected changing climate, violates the stationarity principle generally used for describing hydro-meteorological processes, which assumes time persisting statistical characteristics of a given variable as inferred by historical data. As this principle is unlikely to be valid in the future, the probability density function used for modeling stochastic disturbances (e.g., inflows) becomes an additional uncertain parameter of the problem, which can be described in a deterministic and set-membership based fashion. This study contributes a novel method for designing optimal, adaptive policies for controlling water reservoir systems under climate-related uncertainty. The proposed method, called scenario-based Fitted Q-Iteration (sFQI), extends the original Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm by enlarging the state space to include the space of the uncertain system's parameters (i.e., the uncertain climate scenarios). As a result, sFQI embeds the set-membership uncertainty of the future inflow scenarios in the action-value function and is able to approximate, with a single learning process, the optimal control policy associated to any scenario included in the uncertainty set. The method is demonstrated on a synthetic water system, consisting of a regulated lake operated for ensuring reliable water supply to downstream users. Numerical results show that the sFQI algorithm successfully identifies adaptive solutions to operate the system under different inflow scenarios, which outperform the control policy designed under historical conditions. Moreover, the sFQI policy generalizes over inflow scenarios not directly experienced during the policy design

  2. vNet Zero Energy for Radio Base Stations- Balearic Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabater, Pere; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Pol, Andreu Moia

    2016-01-01

    The Balearic Islands have one of the best telecommunications infrastructures in Spain, with more than 1500 Radio Base Stations (RBS) covering a total surface of 4.991,66 km². This archipelago has high energy consumption, with high CO2 emissions, due to an electrical energy production system mainly...... based on coal and fossil fuels which is not an environmentally sustainable scenario. The aim of this study is to identify the processes that would reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, designing a target scenario featuring "zero CO2 emissions" and "100% renewable energies" in RBS....... The energy costs, CO2 emissions and data traffic data used for the study are generated by a sample of RBS from the Balearic Islands. The results are shown in terms of energy performance for a normal and net zero emissions scenarios....

  3. Radiation dose evaluation based on exposure scenario during the operation of radioactive waste disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Jeong Hyoun; Kim Chang Lak; Choi, Heui Joo; Park, Joo Wan

    1999-01-01

    Radiation dose to worker in disposal facility was calculated by using point kernel MICROSHIELD V5.02 computer code based on exposure scenarios. An conceptual design model for disposal vaults in disposal facility was used for object of shielding calculation model. Selected radionuclides and their activities among radioactive wastes from nuclear power plants were assumed as radiation sources for the exposure calculation. Annual radiation doses to crane workers and to people working on disposal vaults were calculated according to exposure time and distance from the sources with conservative operation scenarios. The scenarios used for this study were based on assumption for representing disposal activities in a future Korean near surface disposal facility. Calculated exposure rates to worker during normal disposal work were very low comparing with annual allowable limit for radiation worker

  4. Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

    2017-01-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  5. Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

    2017-11-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  6. Evaluation of ecosystem service based on scenario simulation of land use in Yunnan Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hong; Liao, Xiaoli; Zhai, Tianlin

    2018-04-01

    Climate change and rapid urbanization are important factors restricting future land use. Situational analysis, as an important foundation for the optimization of land use, needs to focus on the impact of climate factors and socio-economic factors. In this paper, the Markov model and the DLS (Simulation of Land System Dynamics) model are combined for the first time, and the land use pattern in 2020 is simulated based on the data of land use in 2000 and 2010 as well as the climate, soil, topography and socio-economic factors of Yunnan Province. In his paper, we took Yunnan Province as the case study area, and selected 12 driving factors by logistic regression method, then the land use demands and layout of Yunnan Province in 2020 has been forecasted and simulated under business as usual (BAU) scenario and farmland protection (FP) scenario and the changes in ecosystem service value has been calculated. The result shows that: (1) after the regression analysis and ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) test, the 12 factors selected in this paper have a strong ability to explain the land use change in Yunnan Province. (2) Under the two scenarios, the significant reduction of arable land area is a common feature of land use change in Yunnan Province in the future, and its main land use type will be construction land. However, under FP scenario, the current situation where construction land encroach on arable land will be improved. Compared with the change from 2000 to 2010, the trend of arable land, forest land, water area, construction land and unused land will be the same under the two scenarios, whereas the change trend of grassland was opposite. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the value of ecosystem services in Yunnan Province is on the rise, but the ecosystem service value under FP scenario is higher than that of the ecosystem services under BAU scenario. In general, land use in 2020 in Yunnan Province continues the pattern of 2010, but there are also significant spatial

  7. Kalman filter for speech enhancement in cocktail party scenarios using a codebook-based approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kavalekalam, Mathew Shaji; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Gran, Fredrik

    2016-01-01

    Enhancement of speech in non-stationary background noise is a challenging task, and conventional single channel speech enhancement algorithms have not been able to improve the speech intelligibility in such scenarios. The work proposed in this paper investigates a single channel Kalman filter based...... trained codebook over a generic speech codebook in relation to the performance of the speech enhancement system....

  8. Incorporating stakeholder perspectives into model-based scenarios : Exploring the futures of the Dutch gas sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eker, S.; van Daalen, C.; Thissen, W.A.H.

    2017-01-01

    Several model-based, analytical approaches have been developed recently to deal with the deep uncertainty present in situations for which futures studies are conducted. These approaches focus on covering a wide variety of scenarios and searching for robust strategies. However, they generally do

  9. A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

    2018-01-01

    Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

  10. Mind map our way into effective student questioning: A principle-based scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokhof, Harry; De Vries, Bregje; Bastiaens, Theo; Martens, Rob

    2017-01-01

    Student questioning is an important self-regulative strategy and has multiple benefits for teaching and learning science. Teachers, however, need support to align student questioning to curricular goals. This study tests a prototype of a principle-based scenario that supports teachers in guiding

  11. THE SCENARIOS APPROACH TO ATTENUATION-BASED REMEDIES FOR INORGANIC AND RADIONUCLIDE CONTAMINANTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vangelas, K.; Rysz, M.; Truex, M.; Brady, P.; Newell, C.; Denham, M.

    2011-08-04

    Guidance materials based on use of conceptual model scenarios were developed to assist evaluation and implementation of attenuation-based remedies for groundwater and vadose zones contaminated with inorganic and radionuclide contaminants. The Scenarios approach is intended to complement the comprehensive information provided in the US EPA's Technical Protocol for Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) of Inorganic Contaminants by providing additional information on site conceptual models and extending the evaluation to consideration of Enhanced Attenuation approaches. The conceptual models incorporate the notion of reactive facies, defined as units with hydrogeochemical properties that are different from surrounding units and that react with contaminants in distinct ways. The conceptual models also incorporate consideration of biogeochemical gradients, defined as boundaries between different geochemical conditions that have been induced by waste disposal or other natural phenomena. Gradients can change over time when geochemical conditions from one area migrate into another, potentially affecting contaminant mobility. A recognition of gradients allows the attenuation-affecting conditions of a site to be projected into the future. The Scenarios approach provides a stepwise process to identify an appropriate category of conceptual model and refine it for a specific site. Scenario materials provide links to pertinent sections in the EPA technical protocol and present information about contaminant mobility and important controlling mechanism for attenuation-based remedies based on the categories of conceptual models.

  12. Assessing the Psychometric Properties of a Scenario-Based Measure of Achievement Guilt and Shame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ted; Sharp, Jessica; Alexander, James

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the psychometric properties of the scenario-based Achievement Guilt and Shame Scale (AGSS) were established. The AGSS and scales assessing interpersonal guilt and shame, high standards, overgeneralization, self-criticism, self-esteem, academic self-concept, fear of failure, and tendency to respond in a socially desirable manner were…

  13. Using Scenario-based Business Modelling to Explore the 5G Telecommunication Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moqaddamerad, Sara; Ahokangas, Petri; Matinmikko, Marja

    2017-01-01

    Innovative technologies often alter established value chains and make traditional strategic planning methods inadequate. In this paper, we present the use of scenario-based business modelling to explore the market for the fifth generation mobile communication networks (5G). We discuss four...... scenarios that have been developed in a collaborative effort among different actors in the market. We then describe the approach to build business models and discuss lessons learned and benefits from the novel approach. This approach complements traditional techniques through providing a powerful platform...

  14. A Scenario-Based Protocol Checker for Public-Key Authentication Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Takamichi

    Security protocol provides communication security for the internet. One of the important features of it is authentication with key exchange. Its correctness is a requirement of the whole of the communication security. In this paper, we introduce three attack models realized as their attack scenarios, and provide an authentication-protocol checker for applying three attack-scenarios based on the models. We also utilize it to check two popular security protocols: Secure SHell (SSH) and Secure Socket Layer/Transport Layer Security (SSL/TLS).

  15. Performance Assessment of a Solar-Assisted Desiccant-Based Air Handling Unit Considering Different Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Angrisani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, three alternative layouts (scenarios of an innovative solar-assisted hybrid desiccant-based air handling unit (AHU are investigated through dynamic simulations. Performance is evaluated with respect to a reference system and compared to those of the innovative plant without modifications. For each scenario, different collector types, surfaces and tilt angles are considered. The effect of the solar thermal energy surplus exploitation for other low-temperature uses is also investigated. The first alternative scenario consists of the recovery of the heat rejected by the condenser of the chiller to pre-heat the regeneration air. The second scenario considers the pre-heating of regeneration air with the warmer regeneration air exiting the desiccant wheel (DW. The last scenario provides pre-cooling of the process air before entering the DW. Results reveal that the plants with evacuated solar collectors (SC can ensure primary energy savings (15%–24% and avoid equivalent CO2 emissions (14%–22%, about 10 percentage points more than those with flat-plate collectors, when the solar thermal energy is used only for air conditioning and the collectors have the best tilt angle. If all of the solar thermal energy is considered, the best results with evacuated tube collectors are approximately 73% in terms of primary energy saving, 71% in terms of avoided equivalent CO2 emissions and a payback period of six years.

  16. Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, Ram M.; Malla, Sunil; Liyanage, Migara H.

    2007-01-01

    Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand. (author)

  17. Mind Map Our Way into Effective Student Questioning: a Principle-Based Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokhof, Harry; de Vries, Bregje; Bastiaens, Theo; Martens, Rob

    2017-07-01

    Student questioning is an important self-regulative strategy and has multiple benefits for teaching and learning science. Teachers, however, need support to align student questioning to curricular goals. This study tests a prototype of a principle-based scenario that supports teachers in guiding effective student questioning. In the scenario, mind mapping is used to provide both curricular structure as well as support for student questioning. The fidelity of structure and the process of implementation were verified by interviews, video data and a product collection. Results show that the scenario was relevant for teachers, practical in use and effective for guiding student questioning. Results also suggest that shared responsibility for classroom mind maps contributed to more intensive collective knowledge construction.

  18. Long-range high-speed visible light communication system over 100-m outdoor transmission utilizing receiver diversity technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yiguang; Huang, Xingxing; Shi, Jianyang; Wang, Yuan-quan; Chi, Nan

    2016-05-01

    Visible light communication (VLC) has no doubt become a promising candidate for future wireless communications due to the increasing trends in the usage of light-emitting diodes (LEDs). In addition to indoor high-speed wireless access and positioning applications, VLC usage in outdoor scenarios, such as vehicle networks and intelligent transportation systems, are also attracting significant interest. However, the complex outdoor environment and ambient noise are the key challenges for long-range high-speed VLC outdoor applications. To improve system performance and transmission distance, we propose to use receiver diversity technology in an outdoor VLC system. Maximal ratio combining-based receiver diversity technology is utilized in two receivers to achieve the maximal signal-to-noise ratio. A 400-Mb/s VLC transmission using a phosphor-based white LED and a 1-Gb/s wavelength division multiplexing VLC transmission using a red-green-blue LED are both successfully achieved over a 100-m outdoor distance with the bit error rate below the 7% forward error correction limit of 3.8×10-3. To the best of our knowledge, this is the highest data rate at 100-m outdoor VLC transmission ever achieved. The experimental results clearly prove the benefit and feasibility of receiver diversity technology for long-range high-speed outdoor VLC systems.

  19. Scenario-Based Analysis on the Structural Change of Land Uses in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Land Use/Land Cover change (LUCC is a key aspect of global environmental change, which has a significant impact on climate change. In the background of increasing global warming resulting from greenhouse effect, to understand the impact of land use change on climate change is necessary and meaningful. In this study, we choose China as the study area and explore the possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of global change assessment model (GCAM model and Global Change Assessment Model. We design three scenarios based on socioeconomic development and simulated the corresponding structure change of land use according to the three scenarios with different parameters. Then we simulate the different emission of CO2 under different scenarios based on the simulation results of structure change of land use. At last, we choose the most suitable scenario that could control the emission of CO2 best and obtain the relatively better land use structure change for adaption of climate change. Through this research we can provide a theoretical basis for the future land use planning to adapt to climate change.

  20. Analysis of cloud-based solutions on EHRs systems in different scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Cardeñosa, Gonzalo; de la Torre-Díez, Isabel; López-Coronado, Miguel; Rodrigues, Joel J P C

    2012-12-01

    Nowadays with the growing of the wireless connections people can access all the resources hosted in the Cloud almost everywhere. In this context, organisms can take advantage of this fact, in terms of e-Health, deploying Cloud-based solutions on e-Health services. In this paper two Cloud-based solutions for different scenarios of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) management system are proposed. We have researched articles published between the years 2005 and 2011 about the implementation of e-Health services based on the Cloud in Medline. In order to analyze the best scenario for the deployment of Cloud Computing two solutions for a large Hospital and a network of Primary Care Health centers have been studied. Economic estimation of the cost of the implementation for both scenarios has been done via the Amazon calculator tool. As a result of this analysis two solutions are suggested depending on the scenario: To deploy a Cloud solution for a large Hospital a typical Cloud solution in which are hired just the needed services has been assumed. On the other hand to work with several Primary Care Centers it's suggested the implementation of a network, which interconnects these centers with just one Cloud environment. Finally it's considered the fact of deploying a hybrid solution: in which EHRs with images will be hosted in the Hospital or Primary Care Centers and the rest of them will be migrated to the Cloud.

  1. A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

    2017-10-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global

  2. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manns PJ

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

  3. Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

    2013-01-01

    A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage mecha......- and without monitoring. Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is used to estimate the probabilities and the tower of an onshore NREL 5MW wind turbine is given as a calculation case......A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage...

  4. A novel method for energy harvesting simulation based on scenario generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhe; Li, Taoshen; Xiao, Nan; Ye, Jin; Wu, Min

    2018-06-01

    Energy harvesting network (EHN) is a new form of computer networks. It converts ambient energy into usable electric energy and supply the electrical energy as a primary or secondary power source to the communication devices. However, most of the EHN uses the analytical probability distribution function to describe the energy harvesting process, which cannot accurately identify the actual situation for the lack of authenticity. We propose an EHN simulation method based on scenario generation in this paper. Firstly, instead of setting a probability distribution in advance, it uses optimal scenario reduction technology to generate representative scenarios in single period based on the historical data of the harvested energy. Secondly, it uses homogeneous simulated annealing algorithm to generate optimal daily energy harvesting scenario sequences to get a more accurate simulation of the random characteristics of the energy harvesting network. Then taking the actual wind power data as an example, the accuracy and stability of the method are verified by comparing with the real data. Finally, we cite an instance to optimize the network throughput, which indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method we proposed from the optimal solution and data analysis in energy harvesting simulation.

  5. Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kecskes, Csaba

    2002-05-01

    In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.

  6. Scenario-based verification of real-time systems using UPPAAL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shuhao; Belaguer, Sandie; David, Alexandre

    2010-01-01

    Abstract This paper proposes two approaches to tool-supported automatic verification of dense real-time systems against scenario-based requirements, where a system is modeled as a network of timed automata (TAs) or as a set of driving live sequence charts (LSCs), and a requirement is specified...... as a separate monitored LSC chart. We make timed extensions to a kernel subset of the LSC language and define a trace-based semantics. By translating a monitored LSC chart to a behavior-equivalent observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original TA modeled real-time system......, the problem of scenario-based verification reduces to a computation tree logic (CTL) real-time model checking problem. In case the real time system is modeled as a set of driving LSC charts, we translate these driving charts and the monitored chart into a behavior-equivalent network of TAs by using a “one...

  7. Development of outdoor luminescence imaging for drone-based PV array inspection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benatto, Gisele Alves dos Reis; Riedel, Nicholas; Thorsteinsson, Sune

    2017-01-01

    This work has the goal to examined experimentally PV module imaging methods under natural light conditions, that will be used in a fast, accurate and automatic drone-based inspection system for PV power plants.......This work has the goal to examined experimentally PV module imaging methods under natural light conditions, that will be used in a fast, accurate and automatic drone-based inspection system for PV power plants....

  8. Gas allocation plans based on failures scenarios: PETROBRAS-Gas and Power Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faertes, Denise; Vieira, Flavia; Saker, Leonardo; Heil, Luciana [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Galvao, Joao [DNV, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present gas allocation plans developed for PETROBRAS Gas and Power Sector, considering failure to supply scenarios that could occur along gas supply network. Those scenarios, as well as the associated contingency plans, were identified and validated by an experienced team, composed by engineers and operators from different PETROBRAS sectors. The key issue of concern was the anticipation of possible undesired scenarios that could imply on contract shortfalls, the evaluation of possible maneuvers, taking into account best gas delivery allocation. Different software were used for the simulation of best gas supply allocation and for the verification of delivery pressure and conditions for final consumers. The ability of being capable of dealing with undesired or crisis scenarios, based on suitable anticipation levels, is, nowadays, a highly valuable attribute to be presented by competitive corporations, for best crisis management and prompt recovery response. Those plans are being used by Gas and Power Gas Operation Control Centre and as an input for reliability modeling of gas supply chain. (author)

  9. Method-Based Higher Education in Sustainability: The Potential of the Scenario Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Beecroft

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Both sustainability and education are challenging process-oriented objectives. When the aim is to combine both notions, as in Higher Education in Sustainability (HES, it is indispensable to first establish a common ground between them. In this paper, we characterise this common ground in terms of four aspects: future orientation, normativity, global perspective, and theory engaged in practice. Based on an analysis of the common ground, one method that is well-established in a wide range of sustainability sciences shows high potential for use in HES because it covers all four aspects in detail: the scenario method. We argue that a didactical reconstruction of the scenario method is necessary to utilise its potential and develop adequate forms of teaching in higher education. The scenario method is used to construct and analyse a set of alternative future developments to support decisions that have to be made in the present. Didactical reconstruction reveals a spectrum of objectives for which the scenario method can be employed: (1 projection; (2 teleological planning and (3 an explorative search for possibilities not yet considered. By studying and experimenting with this spectrum of objectives, students in HES can develop fundamental reflexive competencies in addressing the future in different ways that are relevant for both sustainability and education.

  10. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  11. Remembering the Roots of Place Meanings for Place-Based Outdoor Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutson, Garrett

    2011-01-01

    Place-based education seeks to connect learners to local environments through a variety of strategies that increase environmental awareness and connectedness to particular parts of the world. The concept of place meanings encompasses the subjective ways people construct meaning through their experiences with an array of settings. Place meanings…

  12. UNBC: Outdoor Recreation and Tourism Management Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, Pat

    2007-01-01

    This article describes the University of Northern British Columbia's (UNBC's) Outdoor Recreation and Tourism Management (ORTM) Program, which focuses squarely on the management of outdoor recreation as it relates to conservation (i.e., in and around parks and protected areas), tourism that is both based in and concerned with the natural/cultural…

  13. Outdoor air dominates burden of disease from indoor exposures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hänninen, O.; Asikainen, A.; Carrer, P.

    2014-01-01

    Both indoor and outdoor sources of air pollution have significant public health impacts in Europe. Based on quantitative modelling of the burden of disease the outdoor sources dominate the impacts by a clear margin.......Both indoor and outdoor sources of air pollution have significant public health impacts in Europe. Based on quantitative modelling of the burden of disease the outdoor sources dominate the impacts by a clear margin....

  14. Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    M. Wronna; R. Omira; M. A. Baptista

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines – Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seis...

  15. Real-geographic-scenario-based virtual social environments: integrating geography with social research

    OpenAIRE

    Min Chen; Li He; Hui Lin; Chunxiao Zhang; Mingyuan Hu

    2013-01-01

    Existing online virtual worlds, or electronic environments, are of great significance to social science research, but are somewhat lacking in rigour. One reason is that users might not participate in those virtual worlds in the way they act in real daily life, communicating with each other in familiar environments and interacting with natural phenomena under the constraints of the human–land relationship. To help solve this problem we propose the real-geographic-scenario-based virtual social ...

  16. Significance of Bias Correction in Drought Frequency and Scenario Analysis Based on Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryal, Y.; Zhu, J.

    2015-12-01

    Assessment of future drought characteristics is difficult as climate models usually have bias in simulating precipitation frequency and intensity. To overcome this limitation, output from climate models need to be bias corrected based on the specific purpose of applications. In this study, we examine the significance of bias correction in the context of drought frequency and scenario analysis using output from climate models. In particular, we investigate the performance of three widely used bias correction techniques: (1) monthly bias correction (MBC), (2) nested bias correction (NBC), and (3) equidistance quantile mapping (EQM) The effect of bias correction in future scenario of drought frequency is also analyzed. The characteristics of drought are investigated in terms of frequency and severity in nine representative locations in different climatic regions across the United States using regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as the means to compare and forecast drought characteristics at different timescales. Systematic biases in the RCM precipitation output are corrected against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The results demonstrate that bias correction significantly decreases the RCM errors in reproducing drought frequency derived from the NARR data. Preserving mean and standard deviation is essential for climate models in drought frequency analysis. RCM biases both have regional and timescale dependence. Different timescale of input precipitation in the bias corrections show similar results. Drought frequency obtained from the RCM future (2040-2070) scenarios is compared with that from the historical simulations. The changes in drought characteristics occur in all climatic regions. The relative changes in drought frequency in future scenario in relation to

  17. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

  19. On the applicability of models for outdoor sound

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Karsten Bo

    1999-01-01

    not only sound pressure levels but also phase information. Such methods are, however, not always able to predict the sound field for more complicated scenarios involving terrain features, atmospheric wind and temperature gradients and turbulence. Another class of methods is based upon approximate theory......The suitable prediction model for outdoor sound fields depends on the situation and the application. Computationally intensive methods such as Parabolic Equation methods, FFP methods and Boundary Element Methods all have advantages in certain situations. These approaches are accurate and predict...

  20. On the applicability of models for outdoor sound (A)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Karsten Bo

    1999-01-01

    not only sound pressure levels but also phase information. Such methods are, however, not always able to predict the sound field for more complicated scenarios involving terrain features, atmospheric wind and temperature gradients, and turbulence. Another class of methods is based upon approximate theory......The suitable prediction model for outdoor sound fields depends on the situation and the application. Computationally intensive methods such as parabolic equation methods, FFP methods, and boundary element methods all have advantages in certain situations. These approaches are accurate and predict...

  1. Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick I.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Peters, Jeff; MacMullan, Ed; Krebs, Tessa; Shoaf, Kimberley; Miller, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize community disruptions, we explore the implications of scenario-based evacuation procedures and use the California (USA) coastline as our case study. We focus on the land in coastal communities that is in maximum-evacuation zones, but is not expected to be flooded by a tsunami generated by a Chilean earthquake scenario. Results suggest that a scenario-based evacuation could greatly reduce the number of residents and employees that would be advised to evacuate for 24–36 h (178,646 and 159,271 fewer individuals, respectively) and these reductions are concentrated primarily in three counties for this scenario. Private evacuation spending is estimated to be greater than public expenditures for operating shelters in the area of potential over-evacuations ($13 million compared to $1 million for a 1.5-day evacuation). Short-term disruption costs for businesses in the area of potential over-evacuation are approximately $122 million for a 1.5-day evacuation, with one-third of this cost associated with manufacturing, suggesting that some disruption costs may be recouped over time with increased short-term production. There are many businesses and organizations in this area that contain individuals with limited mobility or access and functional needs that may have substantial evacuation challenges. This study demonstrates and discusses the difficulties of tsunami-evacuation decision-making for relatively small to moderate events faced by emergency managers, not only in California but in coastal communities throughout the world.

  2. Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Öttl

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors, participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress.

  3. Process-based evaluation of the ÖKS15 Austrian climate scenarios: First results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendlik, Thomas; Truhetz, Heimo; Jury, Martin; Maraun, Douglas

    2017-04-01

    The climate scenarios for Austria from the ÖKS15 project consists of 13 downscaled and bias-corrected RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX project. This dataset is meant for the broad public and is now available at the central national archive for climate data (CCCA Data Center). Because of this huge public outreach it is absolutely necessary to objectively discuss the limitations of this dataset and to publish these limitations, which should also be understood by a non-scientific audience. Even though systematical climatological biases have been accounted for by the Scaled-Distribution-Mapping (SDM) bias-correction method, it is not guaranteed that the model biases have been removed for the right reasons. If climate scenarios do not get the patterns of synoptic variability right, biases will still prevail in certain weather patterns. Ultimately this will have consequences for the projected climate change signals. In this study we derive typical weather types in the Alpine Region based on patterns from mean sea level pressure from ERA-INTERIM data and check the occurrence of these synoptic phenomena in EURO-CORDEX data and their corresponding driving GCMs. Based on these weather patterns we analyze the remaining biases of the downscaled and bias-corrected scenarios. We argue that such a process-based evaluation is not only necessary from a scientific point of view, but can also help the broader public to understand the limitations of downscaled climate scenarios, as model errors can be interpreted in terms of everyday observable weather.

  4. Measuring Engagement in Later Life Activities: Rasch-Based Scenario Scales for Work, Caregiving, Informal Helping, and Volunteering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludlow, Larry H.; Matz-Costa, Christina; Johnson, Clair; Brown, Melissa; Besen, Elyssa; James, Jacquelyn B.

    2014-01-01

    The development of Rasch-based "comparative engagement scenarios" based on Guttman's facet theory and sentence mapping procedures is described. The scenario scales measuring engagement in work, caregiving, informal helping, and volunteering illuminate the lived experiences of role involvement among older adults and offer multiple…

  5. Development and characterization of silica and titania based nano structured materials for the removal of indoor and outdoor air pollutants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peiris, Thelge Manindu Nirasha

    photocatalytic activity. In contrast, our xerogel system shows comparatively high visible light photocatalytic activity for the titania based system, showing the importance of non-localized nature of photocatalysis. The Cobalt doped silica system shows interesting dark catalytic activity towards acetaldehyde and several other pollutants. Thus, in summary, based on the different activities we observed during our studies these materials could be successfully used to improve the quality of both indoor and outdoor air.

  6. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...... by almost 4 and 8 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively. For both hazards, business-as-usual is not a possible scenario, since even in the absence of policy-driven changes, significant autonomous adaptation is likely to occur. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation plan...

  7. An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1-Decision Support System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Rachel A; Nozick, Linda K; Wachtendorf, Tricia; Blanton, Brian; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randall L; DeYoung, Sarah; Dresback, Kendra M; Yi, Wenqi; Yang, Kun; Leonardo, Nicholas

    2018-03-30

    This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Stochastic Unit Commitment Based on Multi-Scenario Tree Method Considering Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyu-Hyung Jo

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, it is difficult to schedule unit commitment (UC in a power system because of the uncertainty associated with various factors. In this paper, a new solution procedure based on a multi-scenario tree method (MSTM is presented and applied to the proposed stochastic UC problem. In this process, the initial input data of load and wind power are modeled as different levels using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. The load and wind scenarios are generated using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS that considers forecasting errors. These multiple scenarios are applied in the MSTM for solving the stochastic UC problem, including not only the load and wind power uncertainties, but also sudden outages of the thermal unit. When the UC problem has been formulated, the simulation is conducted for 24-h period by using the short-term UC model, and the operating costs and additional reserve requirements are thus obtained. The effectiveness of the proposed solution approach is demonstrated through a case study based on a modified IEEE-118 bus test system.

  9. Delivering an evidence-based outdoor journey intervention to people with stroke: Barriers and enablers experienced by community rehabilitation teams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Middleton Sandy

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Transferring knowledge from research into practice can be challenging, partly because the process involves a change in attitudes, roles and behaviour by individuals and teams. Helping teams to identify then target potential barriers may aid the knowledge transfer process. The aim of this study was to identify barriers and enablers, as perceived by allied health professionals, to delivering an evidence-based (Level 1 outdoor journey intervention for people with stroke. Methods A qualitative design and semi-structured interviews were used. Allied health professionals (n = 13 from two community rehabilitation teams were interviewed, before and after receiving feedback from a medical record audit and attending a training workshop. Interviews allowed participants to identify potential and actual barriers, as well as enablers to delivering the intervention. Qualitative data were analysed using theoretical domains described by Michie and colleagues. Results Two barriers to delivery of the intervention were the social influence of people with stroke and their family, and professionals' beliefs about their capabilities. Other barriers included professionals' knowledge and skills, their role identity, availability of resources, whether professionals remembered to provide the intervention, and how they felt about delivering the intervention. Enablers to delivering the intervention included a belief that they could deliver the intervention, a willingness to expand and share professional roles, procedures that reminded them what to do, and feeling good about helping people with stroke to participate. Conclusions This study represents one step in the quality improvement process. The interviews encouraged reflection by staff. We obtained valuable data which have been used to plan behaviour change interventions addressing identified barriers. Our methods may assist other researchers who need to design similar behaviour change interventions.

  10. Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2012-01-01

    the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban....... In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via...... in urban distribution that different spatial planning strategies may initiate, and thus change the shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios outline different planning strategies, leading to a more homogenous urban structure, targeted at a reduction of transportation work and thus energy consumption...

  11. A lifestyle-based scenario for US buildings: implications for energy use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond, Rick

    2003-01-01

    Can lifestyle-based scenarios provide insight into the nature of energy use in our future buildings? Participants in a design charrette brainstormed ideas about the future of US homes and workplaces. The teams started from several descriptions of daily lifestyles, and developed specific building characteristics as the place settings for these narratives. In addition to characterizing the physical environment, the teams also identified the forces that would be influential in making these changes. Further reflection was made on the possible unintended consequences of these changes. The energy implications of these changes were characterized with respect to magnitude and direction. While acknowledging the speculative nature of the exercise, the rationale was to broaden the discussion on future energy use by looking at future scenarios in the context of everyday life

  12. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozas, Elisa Oteros; Martín-López, Berta; Daw, Tim M.

    2015-01-01

    Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect......, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1) the context; (2) the original motivations and objectives; (3) the methodological approach...... of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater...

  13. Development of Accident Scenario for Interim Spent Fuel Storage Facility Based on Fukushima Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Dongjin; Choi, Kwangsoon; Yoon, Hyungjoon; Park, Jungsu [KEPCO-E and C, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    700 MTU of spent nuclear fuel is discharged from nuclear fleet every year and spent fuel storage is currently 70.9% full. The on-site wet type spent fuel storage pool of each NPP(nuclear power plants) in Korea will shortly exceed its storage limit. Backdrop, the Korean government has rolled out a plan to construct an interim spent fuel storage facility by 2024. However, the type of interim spent fuel storage facility has not been decided yet in detail. The Fukushima accident has resulted in more stringent requirements for nuclear facilities in case of beyond design basis accidents. Therefore, there has been growing demand for developing scenario on interim storage facility to prepare for beyond design basis accidents and conducting dose assessment based on the scenario to verify the safety of each type of storage.

  14. Physician consensus on preventability and predictability of readmissions based on standard case scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Galen, L. S.; Cooksley, T; Merten, H

    2016-01-01

    Background: Policy makers struggle with unplanned readmissions as a quality indicator since integrating preventability in such indicators is difficult. Most studies on the preventability of readmissions questioned physicians whether they consider a given readmission to be preventable, from which...... conclusions on factors predicting preventable readmissions were derived. There is no literature on the interobserver agreement of physician judgement. Aim: To assess the degree of agreement among physicians regarding predictability and preventability of medical readmissions. Design: An online survey based...... on eight real-life case scenarios was distributed to European physicians. Methods: Physicians were requested to rate from the first four (index admission) scenarios whether they expected these patients to be readmitted within 30 days (the predictability). The remaining four cases, describing a readmission...

  15. Taking the New Curriculum Outdoors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsey, Katherine

    2014-01-01

    A review of research on outdoor learning by Rickinson "et al." (2004) highlights the demonstrable educational benefits and provides a source of support, justification and an evidence base for educators looking to undertake more learning outside the classroom. Bird (2004) also reviewed the widely reported health benefits of outdoor…

  16. Accelerated Evaluation of Automated Vehicles Safety in Lane-Change Scenarios Based on Importance Sampling Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ding; Lam, Henry; Peng, Huei; Bao, Shan; LeBlanc, David J; Nobukawa, Kazutoshi; Pan, Christopher S

    2017-03-01

    Automated vehicles (AVs) must be thoroughly evaluated before their release and deployment. A widely used evaluation approach is the Naturalistic-Field Operational Test (N-FOT), which tests prototype vehicles directly on the public roads. Due to the low exposure to safety-critical scenarios, N-FOTs are time consuming and expensive to conduct. In this paper, we propose an accelerated evaluation approach for AVs. The results can be used to generate motions of the other primary vehicles to accelerate the verification of AVs in simulations and controlled experiments. Frontal collision due to unsafe cut-ins is the target crash type of this paper. Human-controlled vehicles making unsafe lane changes are modeled as the primary disturbance to AVs based on data collected by the University of Michigan Safety Pilot Model Deployment Program. The cut-in scenarios are generated based on skewed statistics of collected human driver behaviors, which generate risky testing scenarios while preserving the statistical information so that the safety benefits of AVs in nonaccelerated cases can be accurately estimated. The cross-entropy method is used to recursively search for the optimal skewing parameters. The frequencies of the occurrences of conflicts, crashes, and injuries are estimated for a modeled AV, and the achieved accelerated rate is around 2000 to 20 000. In other words, in the accelerated simulations, driving for 1000 miles will expose the AV with challenging scenarios that will take about 2 to 20 million miles of real-world driving to encounter. This technique thus has the potential to greatly reduce the development and validation time for AVs.

  17. Scenario-based stochastic optimal operation of wind, photovoltaic, pump-storage hybrid system in frequency- based pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zare Oskouei, Morteza; Sadeghi Yazdankhah, Ahmad

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Two-stage objective function is proposed for optimization problem. • Hourly-based optimal contractual agreement is calculated. • Scenario-based stochastic optimization problem is solved. • Improvement of system frequency by utilizing PSH unit. - Abstract: This paper proposes the operating strategy of a micro grid connected wind farm, photovoltaic and pump-storage hybrid system. The strategy consists of two stages. In the first stage, the optimal hourly contractual agreement is determined. The second stage corresponds to maximizing its profit by adapting energy management strategy of wind and photovoltaic in coordination with optimum operating schedule of storage device under frequency based pricing for a day ahead electricity market. The pump-storage hydro plant is utilized to minimize unscheduled interchange flow and maximize the system benefit by participating in frequency control based on energy price. Because of uncertainties in power generation of renewable sources and market prices, generation scheduling is modeled by a stochastic optimization problem. Uncertainties of parameters are modeled by scenario generation and scenario reduction method. A powerful optimization algorithm is proposed using by General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS)/CPLEX. In order to verify the efficiency of the method, the algorithm is applied to various scenarios with different wind and photovoltaic power productions in a day ahead electricity market. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  18. Outdoor Education in Senior Schooling: Clarifying the Body of Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Australia has a state-based educational system. In some of these states, outdoor education exists as part of the formal accredited secondary school curriculum. In this paper I analyse the content of these senior secondary school outdoor courses as a means to help delineate and describe the body of knowledge of outdoor education. I suggest outdoor…

  19. [Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

    2015-08-01

    Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

  20. Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

    2016-05-01

    Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Using scenario-based training to promote information literacy among on-call consultant pediatricians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettersson, Jonas; Bjorkander, Emil; Bark, Sirpa; Holmgren, Daniel; Wekell, Per

    2017-07-01

    Traditionally, teaching hospital staff to search for medical information relies heavily on educator-defined search methods. In contrast, the authors describe our experiences using real-time scenarios to teach on-call consultant pediatricians information literacy skills as part of a two-year continuing professional development program. Two information-searching workshops were held at Sahlgrenska University Hospital in Gothenburg, Sweden. During the workshops, pediatricians were presented with medical scenarios that were closely related to their clinical practice. Participants were initially encouraged to solve the problems using their own preferred search methods, followed by group discussions led by clinical educators and a medical librarian in which search problems were identified and overcome. The workshops were evaluated using questionnaires to assess participant satisfaction and the extent to which participants intended to implement changes in their clinical practice and reported actual change. A scenario-based approach to teaching clinicians how to search for medical information is an attractive alternative to traditional lectures. The relevance of such an approach was supported by a high level of participant engagement during the workshops and high scores for participant satisfaction, intended changes to clinical practice, and reported benefits in actual clinical practice.

  2. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ninna Reitzel Jensen

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

  3. [Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

    2013-01-01

    Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

  4. Scenario based seismic hazard assessment and its application to the seismic verification of relevant buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanelli, Fabio; Vaccari, Franco; Altin, Giorgio; Panza, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    The procedure we developed, and applied to a few relevant cases, leads to the seismic verification of a building by: a) use of a scenario based neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) for the calculation of the seismic input, and b) control of the numerical modeling of an existing building, using free vibration measurements of the real structure. The key point of this approach is the strict collaboration, from the seismic input definition to the monitoring of the response of the building in the calculation phase, of the seismologist and the civil engineer. The vibrometry study allows the engineer to adjust the computational model in the direction suggested by the experimental result of a physical measurement. Once the model has been calibrated by vibrometric analysis, one can select in the design spectrum the proper range of periods of interest for the structure. Then, the realistic values of spectral acceleration, which include the appropriate amplification obtained through the modeling of a "scenario" input to be applied to the final model, can be selected. Generally, but not necessarily, the "scenario" spectra lead to higher accelerations than those deduced by taking the spectra from the national codes (i.e. NTC 2008, for Italy). The task of the verifier engineer is to act so that the solution of the verification is conservative and realistic. We show some examples of the application of the procedure to some relevant (e.g. schools) buildings of the Trieste Province. The adoption of the scenario input has given in most of the cases an increase of critical elements that have to be taken into account in the design of reinforcements. However, the higher cost associated with the increase of elements to reinforce is reasonable, especially considering the important reduction of the risk level.

  5. The QoS Indicators Analysis of Integrated EUHT Wireless Communication System Based on Urban Rail Transit in High-Speed Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxuan Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, in urban rail transit systems, train wayside communication system uses Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN as wireless technologies to achieve safety-related information exchange between trains and wayside equipment. However, according to the high speed mobility of trains and the limitations of frequency band, WLAN is unable to meet the demands of future intracity and intercity rail transit. And although the Time Division-Long Term Evolution (TD-LTE technology has high performance compared with WLAN, only 20 MHz bandwidth can be used at most. Moreover, in high-speed scenario over 300 km/h, TD-LTE can hardly meet the future requirement as well. The equipment based on Enhanced Ultra High Throughput (EUHT technology can achieve a better performance in high-speed scenario compared with WLAN and TD-LTE. Furthermore, it allows using the frequency resource flexibly based on 5.8 GHz, such as 20 MHz, 40 MHz, and 80 MHz. In this paper, we set up an EUHT wireless communication system for urban rail transit in high-speed scenario integrated all the traffics of it. An outdoor testing environment in Beijing-Tianjin High-speed Railway is set up to measure the performance of integrated EUHT wireless communication system based on urban rail transit. The communication delay, handoff latency, and throughput of this system are analyzed. Extensive testing results show that the Quality of Service (QoS of the designed integrated EUHT wireless communication system satisfies the requirements of urban rail transit system in high-speed scenario. Moreover, compared with testing results of TD-LTE which we got before, the maximum handoff latency of safety-critical traffics can be decreased from 225 ms to 150 ms. The performance of throughput-critical traffics can achieve 2-way 2 Mbps CCTV and 1-way 8 Mbps PIS which are much better than 2-way 1 Mbps CCTV and 1-way 2 Mbps PIS in TD-LTE.

  6. Development of a measurement approach to assess time children participate in organized sport, active travel, outdoor active play, and curriculum-based physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borghese, Michael M; Janssen, Ian

    2018-03-22

    Children participate in four main types of physical activity: organized sport, active travel, outdoor active play, and curriculum-based physical activity. The objective of this study was to develop a valid approach that can be used to concurrently measure time spent in each of these types of physical activity. Two samples (sample 1: n = 50; sample 2: n = 83) of children aged 10-13 wore an accelerometer and a GPS watch continuously over 7 days. They also completed a log where they recorded the start and end times of organized sport sessions. Sample 1 also completed an outdoor time log where they recorded the times they went outdoors and a description of the outdoor activity. Sample 2 also completed a curriculum log where they recorded times they participated in physical activity (e.g., physical education) during class time. We describe the development of a measurement approach that can be used to concurrently assess the time children spend participating in specific types of physical activity. The approach uses a combination of data from accelerometers, GPS, and activity logs and relies on merging and then processing these data using several manual (e.g., data checks and cleaning) and automated (e.g., algorithms) procedures. In the new measurement approach time spent in organized sport is estimated using the activity log. Time spent in active travel is estimated using an existing algorithm that uses GPS data. Time spent in outdoor active play is estimated using an algorithm (with a sensitivity and specificity of 85%) that was developed using data collected in sample 1 and which uses all of the data sources. Time spent in curriculum-based physical activity is estimated using an algorithm (with a sensitivity of 78% and specificity of 92%) that was developed using data collected in sample 2 and which uses accelerometer data collected during class time. There was evidence of excellent intra- and inter-rater reliability of the estimates for all of these types of

  7. Effects of an outdoor bicycle-based intervention in healthy rural Indian men with normal and low birth weight

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, C; Mogensen, P; Thomas, N

    2015-01-01

    Physical inactivity and low birth weight (LBW) may lead to an increased risk for developing type 2 diabetes. The extent to which LBW individuals may benefit from physical exercise training when compared with those with normal birth weight (NBW) controls is uncertain. We assessed the impact...... of an outdoor exercise intervention on body composition, insulin secretion and action in young men born with LBW and NBW in rural India. A total of 61 LBW and 56 NBW healthy young men were recruited into the study. The individuals were instructed to perform outdoor bicycle exercise training for 45 min every day...... with LBW in rural India benefit metabolically from exercise training to an extent comparable with NBW controls....

  8. Measurement based scenario analysis of short-range distribution system planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Chen, Zhe

    2009-01-01

    This paper focuses on short-range distribution system planning using a probabilistic approach. Empirical probabilistic distributions of load demand and distributed generations are derived from the historical measurement data and incorporated into the system planning. Simulations with various...... feasible scenarios are performed based on a local distribution system at Støvring in Denmark. Simulation results provide more accurate and insightful information for the decision-maker when using the probabilistic analysis than using the worst-case analysis, so that a better planning can be achieved....

  9. Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wagner Jonas

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel’s calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

  10. Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas Wagner

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel's calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

  11. Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Jonas; Binkowski, Eva; Bronsart, Robert

    2014-06-01

    In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS) is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC) the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel's calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

  12. Outdoorsman: Outdoor Cooking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberta Dept. of Agriculture, Edmonton.

    This Outdoor Cookery manual provides information and instruction on the basic outdoor skills of building suitable cooking fires, handling fires safely, and storing food. The necessity of having the right kind of fire is stressed (high flames for boiling, low for stewing, and coals for frying and broiling). Tips on gauging temperature, what types…

  13. The feasibility of sharing simulation-based evaluation scenarios in anesthesiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkenstadt, Haim; Kantor, Gareth S; Yusim, Yakov; Gafni, Naomi; Perel, Azriel; Ezri, Tiberiu; Ziv, Amitai

    2005-10-01

    We prospectively assessed the feasibility of international sharing of simulation-based evaluation tools despite differences in language, education, and anesthesia practice, in an Israeli study, using validated scenarios from a multi-institutional United States (US) study. Thirty-one Israeli junior anesthesia residents performed four simulation scenarios. Training sessions were videotaped and performance was assessed using two validated scoring systems (Long and Short Forms) by two independent raters. Subjects scored from 37 to 95 (70 +/- 12) of 108 possible points with the "Long Form" and "Short Form" scores ranging from 18 to 35 (28.2 +/- 4.5) of 40 possible points. Scores >70% of the maximal score were achieved by 61% of participants in comparison to only 5% in the original US study. The scenarios were rated as very realistic by 80% of the participants (grade 4 on a 1-4 scale). Reliability of the original assessment tools was demonstrated by internal consistencies of 0.66 for the Long and 0.75 for the Short Form (Cronbach alpha statistic). Values in the original study were 0.72-0.76 for the Long and 0.71-0.75 for the Short Form. The reliability did not change when a revised Israeli version of the scoring was used. Interrater reliability measured by Pearson correlation was 0.91 for the Long and 0.96 for the Short Form (P Israel. The higher scores achieved by Israeli residents may be related to the fact that most Israeli residents are immigrants with previous training in anesthesia. Simulation-based assessment tools developed in a multi-institutional study in the United States can be used in Israel despite the differences in language, education, and medical system.

  14. Scenario-based potential effects of carbon trading in China: An integrated approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Cheng; Wang, Qunwei; Shi, Dan; Li, Pengfei; Cai, Wanhuan

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Carbon dioxide shadow price shows a negative asymmetrical correlation with carbon dioxide emissions in China. • The implements of carbon trading can bring Porter Hypothesis effect significantly. • Provincial carbon trading can reduce carbon intensity by 19.79–25.24% in China. - Abstract: Using China’s provincial panel data and national panel data of OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) and BRICS (Five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), this paper simulates the scenario-based potential effect of carbon trading in China. Analysis methods included Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Difference-in-differences Model, and Nonlinear Programming Technique. Results indicated that in a theory-based view of carbon trading, the shadow price of carbon dioxide generally rises, with a non-linear negative correlation with carbon dioxide emissions. In different regions, the shadow price of carbon dioxide presents a digressive tendency among eastern, central, and western areas, with divergent gaps between and within areas. When the greatest goal is assumed to reduce national carbon intensity as much as possible at the given national GDP (Gross Domestic Product) (Scenario I), carbon trading has the effect of reducing carbon intensity by 19.79%, with the consideration of Porter Hypothesis effect. If the rigid constraint of national GDP is relaxed, and the dual constraint of both economic growth and environment protection in each region is introduced (Scenario II), the resulting effect is a reduced carbon intensity of 25.24%. China’s general carbon intensity in 2012 was higher than goals set at the Copenhagen Conference, but lagged behind the goal of Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Economy. This study provides realistic and significant technical support for the government to use in designing and deploying a national carbon trading market.

  15. Scenario-based design: a method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

    2011-12-01

    Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Interview analysis identified 25 information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create 25 scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Modification of fuel performance code to evaluate iron-based alloy behavior under LOCA scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giovedi, Claudia; Martins, Marcelo Ramos, E-mail: claudia.giovedi@labrisco.usp.br, E-mail: mrmartin@usp.br [Laboratorio de Analise, Avaliacao e Gerenciamento de Risco (LabRisco/POLI/USP), São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Abe, Alfredo; Muniz, Rafael O.R.; Gomes, Daniel de Souza; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e, E-mail: ayabe@ipen.br, E-mail: dsgomes@ipen.br, E-mail: teixiera@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), São Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    Accident tolerant fuels (ATF) has been studied since the Fukushima Daiichi accident in the research efforts to develop new materials which under accident scenarios could maintain the fuel rod integrity for a longer period compared to the cladding and fuel system usually utilized in Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR). The efforts have been focused on new materials applied as cladding, then iron-base alloys appear as a possible candidate. The aim of this paper is to implement modifications in a fuel performance code to evaluate the behavior of iron based alloys under Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenario. For this, initially the properties related to the thermal and mechanical behavior of iron-based alloys were obtained from the literature, appropriately adapted and introduced in the fuel performance code subroutines. The adopted approach was step by step modifications, where different versions of the code were created. The assessment of the implemented modification was carried out simulating an experiment available in the open literature (IFA-650.5) related to zirconium-based alloy fuel rods submitted to LOCA conditions. The obtained results for the iron-based alloy were compared to those obtained using the regular version of the fuel performance code for zircaloy-4. The obtained results have shown that the most important properties to be changed are those from the subroutines related to the mechanical properties of the cladding. The results obtained have shown that the burst is observed at a longer time for fuel rods with iron-based alloy, indicating the potentiality of this material to be used as cladding with ATF purposes. (author)

  17. Modification of fuel performance code to evaluate iron-based alloy behavior under LOCA scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giovedi, Claudia; Martins, Marcelo Ramos; Abe, Alfredo; Muniz, Rafael O.R.; Gomes, Daniel de Souza; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e

    2017-01-01

    Accident tolerant fuels (ATF) has been studied since the Fukushima Daiichi accident in the research efforts to develop new materials which under accident scenarios could maintain the fuel rod integrity for a longer period compared to the cladding and fuel system usually utilized in Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR). The efforts have been focused on new materials applied as cladding, then iron-base alloys appear as a possible candidate. The aim of this paper is to implement modifications in a fuel performance code to evaluate the behavior of iron based alloys under Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenario. For this, initially the properties related to the thermal and mechanical behavior of iron-based alloys were obtained from the literature, appropriately adapted and introduced in the fuel performance code subroutines. The adopted approach was step by step modifications, where different versions of the code were created. The assessment of the implemented modification was carried out simulating an experiment available in the open literature (IFA-650.5) related to zirconium-based alloy fuel rods submitted to LOCA conditions. The obtained results for the iron-based alloy were compared to those obtained using the regular version of the fuel performance code for zircaloy-4. The obtained results have shown that the most important properties to be changed are those from the subroutines related to the mechanical properties of the cladding. The results obtained have shown that the burst is observed at a longer time for fuel rods with iron-based alloy, indicating the potentiality of this material to be used as cladding with ATF purposes. (author)

  18. Multi-Scenario Use Case based Demonstration of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework Webtool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil G.; Mylrea, Michael E.; Gervais, Easton L.; Bhadra, Sraddhanjoli

    2017-11-27

    The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the cybersecurity and software capabilities of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework (BCF) webtool. The webtool is designed based on BCF document and existing NIST standards. It’s capabilities and features are depicted through a building usecase with four different investment scenarios geared towards improving the cybersecurity posture of the building. BCF webtool also facilitates implementation of the goals outlined in Presidential Executive Order (EO) on Strengthening the Cybersecurity of Federal Networks and Critical Infrastructure (May 2017. In realization of the EO goals, BCF includes five core elements: Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond, and Recover, to help determine various policy and process level vulnerabilities and provide mitigation strategies. With the BCF webtool, an organization can perform a cybersecurity self-assessment; determine the current cybersecurity posture; define investment based goals to achieve a target state; connect the cybersecurity posture with business processes, functions, and continuity; and finally, develop plans to answer critical organizational cybersecurity questions. In this paper, the webtool and its core capabilities are depicted by performing an extensive comparative assessment over four different scenarios.

  19. Web-based hybrid-dimensional Visualization and Exploration of Cytological Localization Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovanci Gökhan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The CELLmicrocosmos 4.2 PathwayIntegration (CmPI is a tool which provides hybriddimensional visualization and analysis of intracellular protein and gene localizations in the context of a virtual 3D environment. This tool is developed based on Java/Java3D/JOGL and provides a standalone application compatible to all relevant operating systems. However, it requires Java and the local installation of the software. Here we present the prototype of an alternative web-based visualization approach, using Three.js and D3.js. In this way it is possible to visualize and explore CmPI-generated localization scenarios including networks mapped to 3D cell components by just providing a URL to a collaboration partner. This publication describes the integration of the different technologies - Three.js, D3.js and PHP - as well as an application case: a localization scenario of the citrate cycle. The CmPI web viewer is available at: http://CmPIweb.CELLmicrocosmos.org.

  20. A model based bayesian solution for characterization of complex damage scenarios in aerospace composite structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, H; Leckey, Cara A C; Dick, A; Harvey, G; Dobson, J

    2018-01-01

    Ultrasonic damage detection and characterization is commonly used in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of aerospace composite components. In recent years there has been an increased development of guided wave based methods. In real materials and structures, these dispersive waves result in complicated behavior in the presence of complex damage scenarios. Model-based characterization methods utilize accurate three dimensional finite element models (FEMs) of guided wave interaction with realistic damage scenarios to aid in defect identification and classification. This work describes an inverse solution for realistic composite damage characterization by comparing the wavenumber-frequency spectra of experimental and simulated ultrasonic inspections. The composite laminate material properties are first verified through a Bayesian solution (Markov chain Monte Carlo), enabling uncertainty quantification surrounding the characterization. A study is undertaken to assess the efficacy of the proposed damage model and comparative metrics between the experimental and simulated output. The FEM is then parameterized with a damage model capable of describing the typical complex damage created by impact events in composites. The damage is characterized through a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo solution, enabling a flexible damage model capable of adapting to the complex damage geometry investigated here. The posterior probability distributions of the individual delamination petals as well as the overall envelope of the damage site are determined. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Realisable scenarios for a future electricity supply based 100% on renewable energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Czisch, G.; Giebel, G.

    2007-01-01

    In view of the resource and climate problems, it seems obvious that we must transform our energy system into one using only renewable energies. But questions arise how such a system should be structured, which techniques should be used and, of course, how costly it might be. These questions were the focus of a study which investigated the cost optimum of a future renewable electricity supply for Europe and its closer Asian and African neighbourhood. The resulting scenarios are based on a broad data basis of the electricity consumption and for renewable energies. A linear optimisation determines the best system configuration and temporal dispatch of all components. The outcome of the scenarios can be considered as being a scientific breakthrough since it proves that a totally renewable electricity supply is possible even with current technology and at the same time is affordable for our national economies. In the conservative base case scenario, wind power would dominate the production spread over the better wind areas within the whole supply area, connected with the demand centres via HVDC transmission. The transmission system, furthermore, powerfully integrates the existing storage hydropower to provide for backup co-equally assisted by biomass power and supported by solar thermal electricity. The main results of the different scenarios can be summarized as follows: 1) A totally renewable electricity supply for Europe and its neighbourhood is possible and affordable. 2) Electricity import from non-European neighbour countries can be a very valuable and substantial component of a future supply. 3) Smoothing effects by the use of sources at locations in different climate zones improve the security of the supply and reduce the costs. 4) A large-scale co-operation of many different countries opens up for the possibility to combine the goals of development policy and climate politics in a multilateral win-win strategy. To aid implementation, an international extension

  2. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mori, Nobuhito; Mai, Paul Martin

    2015-01-01

    distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry

  3. Realism in paediatric emergency simulations: A prospective comparison of in situ, low fidelity and centre-based, high fidelity scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Leary, Fenton; Pegiazoglou, Ioannis; McGarvey, Kathryn; Novakov, Ruza; Wolfsberger, Ingrid; Peat, Jennifer

    2018-02-01

    To measure scenario participant and faculty self-reported realism, engagement and learning for the low fidelity, in situ simulations and compare this to high fidelity, centre-based simulations. A prospective survey of scenario participants and faculty completing in situ and centre-based paediatric simulations. There were 382 responses, 276 from scenario participants and 106 from faculty with 241 responses from in situ and 141 from centre-based simulations. Scenario participant responses showed significantly higher ratings for the centre-based simulations for respiratory rate (P = 0.007), pulse (P = 0.036), breath sounds (P = 0.002), heart sounds (P realism for engagement and learning. © 2017 The Authors Emergency Medicine Australasia published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

  4. Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario...... to change substantially. The impacts are assessed using Copenhagen as a case study. For both types of extremes large adaptation measures are essential in the global six degree scenario; dikes must be constructed to mitigate sea surge risk and a variety of measures to store or convey storm water must...... be implemented as well as new paradigms for city planning to mitigate the impact of change in extreme precipitation risk. For both hazards business‐as‐usual are not possible scenarios, because large autonomous adaptation will occur in lack of suitable policy‐driven changes. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation...

  5. Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan M Requena-Mullor

    Full Text Available As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the

  6. Improving UWB-Based Localization in IoT Scenarios with Statistical Models of Distance Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monica, Stefania; Ferrari, Gianluigi

    2018-05-17

    Interest in the Internet of Things (IoT) is rapidly increasing, as the number of connected devices is exponentially growing. One of the application scenarios envisaged for IoT technologies involves indoor localization and context awareness. In this paper, we focus on a localization approach that relies on a particular type of communication technology, namely Ultra Wide Band (UWB). UWB technology is an attractive choice for indoor localization, owing to its high accuracy. Since localization algorithms typically rely on estimated inter-node distances, the goal of this paper is to evaluate the improvement brought by a simple (linear) statistical model of the distance error. On the basis of an extensive experimental measurement campaign, we propose a general analytical framework, based on a Least Square (LS) method, to derive a novel statistical model for the range estimation error between a pair of UWB nodes. The proposed statistical model is then applied to improve the performance of a few illustrative localization algorithms in various realistic scenarios. The obtained experimental results show that the use of the proposed statistical model improves the accuracy of the considered localization algorithms with a reduction of the localization error up to 66%.

  7. A Novel Cooperation-Based Network Coding Scheme for Walking Scenarios in WBANs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongyun Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs, the tradeoff between network throughput and energy efficiency remains a key challenge. Most current transmission schemes try to cope with the challenge from the perspective of general Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs, which may not take the peculiarities of WBAN channels into account. In this paper, we take advantage of the correlation of on-body channels in walking scenarios to achieve a better tradeoff between throughput and energy consumption. We first analyze the characteristics of on-body channels based on realistic channel gain datasets, which are collected by our customized wireless transceivers in walking scenarios. The analytical results confirm the rationale of our newly proposed transmission scheme A3NC, which explores the combination of the aggregative allocation (AA mechanism in MAC layer and the Analog Network Coding (ANC technique in PHY layer. Both theoretical analyses and simulation results show that the A3NC scheme achieves significant improvement in upload throughput and energy efficiency, compared to the conventional approaches.

  8. Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

    Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

  9. Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme for Enhancing the English Language Efficiency among Primary School Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navnath Tupe

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This research was undertaken with a view to assess the deficiencies in English language among Primary School Children and to develop Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme (MSBLP for mastery of English language which required special attention and effective treatment. The experimental study with pretest, post-test control group design was employed to carry out the experiment of MSBLP in a sample school and to determine its efficacy for enhancing English Language skills among Primary School Students. In India, the Central and State Government has made great efforts to Education for All (EFA and initiated several programs to provide universal access to education, to reduce the drop-out rates and ensure achievement of minimum levels of learning. To our surprise the scenario had not much changed inside the classroom even implementing several programmes. However, it was still unclear how effective was the delivery of the course content in the classroom. An intensive training for teachers on a regular basis on a state-wide scale may not be feasible again and again. Hence, multimedia offers pragmatic solutions So that this research paper devoted to explore the issues of learning English and describes the creation of MSBLP as a solution in scientific manner.

  10. A Scenario-Based Process for Requirements Development: Application to Mission Operations Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindschadler, Duane L.; Boyles, Carole A.

    2008-01-01

    The notion of using operational scenarios as part of requirements development during mission formulation (Phases A & B) is widely accepted as good system engineering practice. In the context of developing a Mission Operations System (MOS), there are numerous practical challenges to translating that notion into the cost-effective development of a useful set of requirements. These challenges can include such issues as a lack of Project-level focus on operations issues, insufficient or improper flowdown of requirements, flowdown of immature or poor-quality requirements from Project level, and MOS resource constraints (personnel expertise and/or dollars). System engineering theory must be translated into a practice that provides enough structure and standards to serve as guidance, but that retains sufficient flexibility to be tailored to the needs and constraints of a particular MOS or Project. We describe a detailed, scenario-based process for requirements development. Identifying a set of attributes for high quality requirements, we show how the portions of the process address many of those attributes. We also find that the basic process steps are robust, and can be effective even in challenging Project environments.

  11. BlueDetect: An iBeacon-Enabled Scheme for Accurate and Energy-Efficient Indoor-Outdoor Detection and Seamless Location-Based Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Zou

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The location and contextual status (indoor or outdoor is fundamental and critical information for upper-layer applications, such as activity recognition and location-based services (LBS for individuals. In addition, optimizations of building management systems (BMS, such as the pre-cooling or heating process of the air-conditioning system according to the human traffic entering or exiting a building, can utilize the information, as well. The emerging mobile devices, which are equipped with various sensors, become a feasible and flexible platform to perform indoor-outdoor (IO detection. However, power-hungry sensors, such as GPS and WiFi, should be used with caution due to the constrained battery storage on mobile device. We propose BlueDetect: an accurate, fast response and energy-efficient scheme for IO detection and seamless LBS running on the mobile device based on the emerging low-power iBeacon technology. By leveraging the on-broad Bluetooth module and our proposed algorithms, BlueDetect provides a precise IO detection service that can turn on/off on-board power-hungry sensors smartly and automatically, optimize their performances and reduce the power consumption of mobile devices simultaneously. Moreover, seamless positioning and navigation services can be realized by it, especially in a semi-outdoor environment, which cannot be achieved by GPS or an indoor positioning system (IPS easily. We prototype BlueDetect on Android mobile devices and evaluate its performance comprehensively. The experimental results have validated the superiority of BlueDetect in terms of IO detection accuracy, localization accuracy and energy consumption.

  12. BlueDetect: An iBeacon-Enabled Scheme for Accurate and Energy-Efficient Indoor-Outdoor Detection and Seamless Location-Based Service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Han; Jiang, Hao; Luo, Yiwen; Zhu, Jianjie; Lu, Xiaoxuan; Xie, Lihua

    2016-02-22

    The location and contextual status (indoor or outdoor) is fundamental and critical information for upper-layer applications, such as activity recognition and location-based services (LBS) for individuals. In addition, optimizations of building management systems (BMS), such as the pre-cooling or heating process of the air-conditioning system according to the human traffic entering or exiting a building, can utilize the information, as well. The emerging mobile devices, which are equipped with various sensors, become a feasible and flexible platform to perform indoor-outdoor (IO) detection. However, power-hungry sensors, such as GPS and WiFi, should be used with caution due to the constrained battery storage on mobile device. We propose BlueDetect: an accurate, fast response and energy-efficient scheme for IO detection and seamless LBS running on the mobile device based on the emerging low-power iBeacon technology. By leveraging the on-broad Bluetooth module and our proposed algorithms, BlueDetect provides a precise IO detection service that can turn on/off on-board power-hungry sensors smartly and automatically, optimize their performances and reduce the power consumption of mobile devices simultaneously. Moreover, seamless positioning and navigation services can be realized by it, especially in a semi-outdoor environment, which cannot be achieved by GPS or an indoor positioning system (IPS) easily. We prototype BlueDetect on Android mobile devices and evaluate its performance comprehensively. The experimental results have validated the superiority of BlueDetect in terms of IO detection accuracy, localization accuracy and energy consumption.

  13. Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Chen

    Full Text Available This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU, energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI, low carbon scenario (LC and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC. The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

  14. Supporting Problem Solving with Case-Stories Learning Scenario and Video-based Collaborative Learning Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Hu

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we suggest that case-based resources, which are used for assisting cognition during problem solving, can be structured around the work of narratives in social cultural psychology. Theories and other research methods have proposed structures within narratives and stories which may be useful to the design of case-based resources. Moreover, embedded within cases are stories which are contextually rich, supporting the epistemological groundings of situated cognition. Therefore the purposes of this paper are to discuss possible frameworks of case-stories; derive design principles as to “what” constitutes a good case story or narrative; and suggest how technology can support story-based learning. We adopt video-based Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning (CSCL technology to support problem solving with case-stories learning scenarios. Our hypothesis in this paper is that well-designed case-based resources are able to aid in the cognitive processes undergirding problem solving and meaning making. We also suggest the use of an emerging video-based collaborative learning technology to support such an instructional strategy.

  15. PARENTS ATTITUDE ABOUT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragan Martinović

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available A questionnaire-based survey was conducted on a sample of 238 parents whose children attend the third and fourth grades in two Belgrade elementary schools: “Oslobodioci Beograda” and “Borislav Pekic”. The aim of this study was to deter¬mi¬ne the incidence of outdoor activities and the attitude of the third and fourth graders’ parents towards it. Statistical data processing was based on the use of the –R, and every question represented a random variable. The analysis of the collected data has proved the presence of outdoor activities among these pupils and their positive attitude towards camping out, as well as a positive attitude of their parents.

  16. Immersive virtual reality-based training improves response in a simulated operating room fire scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankaranarayanan, Ganesh; Wooley, Lizzy; Hogg, Deborah; Dorozhkin, Denis; Olasky, Jaisa; Chauhan, Sanket; Fleshman, James W; De, Suvranu; Scott, Daniel; Jones, Daniel B

    2018-01-25

    SAGES FUSE curriculum provides didactic knowledge on OR fire prevention. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of an immersive virtual reality (VR)-based OR fire training simulation system in combination with FUSE didactics. The study compared a control with a simulation group. After a pre-test questionnaire that assessed the baseline knowledge, both groups were given didactic material that consists of a 10-min presentation and reading materials about precautions and stopping an OR fire from the FUSE manual. The simulation group practiced on the OR fire simulation for one session that consisted of five trials within a week from the pre-test. One week later, both groups were reassessed using a questionnaire. A week after the post-test both groups also participated in a simulated OR fire scenario while their performance was videotaped for assessment. A total of 20 subjects (ten per group) participated in this IRB approved study. Median test scores for the control group increased from 5.5 to 9.00 (p = 0.011) and for the simulation group it increased from 5.0 to 8.5 (p = 0.005). Both groups started at the same baseline (pre-test, p = 0.529) and reached similar level in cognitive knowledge (post-test, p = 0.853). However, when tested in the mock OR fire scenario, 70% of the simulation group subjects were able to perform the correct sequence of steps in extinguishing the simulated fire whereas only 20% subjects in the control group were able to do so (p = 0.003). The simulation group was better than control group in correctly identifying the oxidizer (p = 0.03) and ignition source (p = 0.014). Interactive VR-based hands-on training was found to be a relatively inexpensive and effective mode for teaching OR fire prevention and management scenarios.

  17. Changes in Sunlight and Outdoor Thermal Environment Conditions Based on the Layout Plan of Flat Type Apartment Houses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukjin Jung

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Economic growths lead to population increases in large cities. This has brought about the growing necessity for apartment housing which has resulted in higher density populations living in high-rise apartment complexes. Therefore, the urban microclimate is aggravated due to the increasing ratio of artificial coverage and substandard daylight availability. To achieve a comfortable living environment and improve urban microclimates, a process considering the daylight availability and the outdoor thermal environment is required when designing apartment housing complexes. This study selected a total of 27 valid cases using an orthogonal array, L27(313 design of experiments (DOE. As a result of significance probability obtained in DOE analysis, the design factors that have an effect on the outdoor thermal environment and daylight availability were found to be building coverage ratio, distance between buildings, and azimuth. The rankings of the effect of design factors were shown to be in the order of azimuth > building coverage ratio > distance between buildings > floor area ratio > width/depth ratio. The surface temperature of the whole building decreased by 0.3 °C and Mean Radiant Temperature (MRT decreased by 1.1 °C as a result of applying the greenery coverage ratio to apartment complexes. Heat Island Potential (HIP also showed a decrease of 5.4 °C (at noon.

  18. D Reconstruction of Cultural Tourism Attractions from Indoor to Outdoor Based on Portable Four-Camera Stereo Vision System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Z.; Li, C.; Zhong, S.; Liu, B.; Jiang, H.; Wen, X.

    2015-05-01

    Building the fine 3D model from outdoor to indoor is becoming a necessity for protecting the cultural tourism resources. However, the existing 3D modelling technologies mainly focus on outdoor areas. Actually, a 3D model should contain detailed descriptions of both its appearance and its internal structure, including architectural components. In this paper, a portable four-camera stereo photographic measurement system is developed, which can provide a professional solution for fast 3D data acquisition, processing, integration, reconstruction and visualization. Given a specific scene or object, it can directly collect physical geometric information such as positions, sizes and shapes of an object or a scene, as well as physical property information such as the materials and textures. On the basis of the information, 3D model can be automatically constructed. The system has been applied to the indooroutdoor seamless modelling of distinctive architecture existing in two typical cultural tourism zones, that is, Tibetan and Qiang ethnic minority villages in Sichuan Jiuzhaigou Scenic Area and Tujia ethnic minority villages in Hubei Shennongjia Nature Reserve, providing a new method and platform for protection of minority cultural characteristics, 3D reconstruction and cultural tourism.

  19. ABM and GIS-based multi-scenarios volcanic evacuation modelling of Merapi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jumadi, Carver, Steve; Quincey, Duncan

    2016-05-01

    Conducting effective evacuation is one of the successful keys to deal with such crisis. Therefore, a plan that considers the probability of the spatial extent of the hazard occurrences is needed. Likewise, the evacuation plan in Merapi is already prepared before the eruption on 2010. However, the plan could not be performed because the eruption magnitude was bigger than it was predicted. In this condition, the extent of the hazardous area was increased larger than the prepared hazard model. Managing such unpredicted situation need adequate information that flexible and adaptable to the current situation. Therefore, we applied an Agent-based Model (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) using multi-scenarios hazard model to support the evacuation management. The methodology and the case study in Merapi is provided.

  20. Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

    2013-04-01

    The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed

  1. Interseismic Coupling-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Scenarios for the Nankai Trough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranes, H.; Woodruff, J. D.; Loveless, J. P.; Hyodo, M.

    2018-04-01

    Theoretical modeling and investigations of recent subduction zone earthquakes show that geodetic estimates of interseismic coupling and the spatial distribution of coseismic rupture are correlated. However, the utility of contemporary coupling in guiding construction of rupture scenarios has not been evaluated on the world's most hazardous faults. Here we demonstrate methods for scaling coupling to slip to create rupture models for southwestern Japan's Nankai Trough. Results show that coupling-based models produce distributions of ground surface deformation and tsunami inundation that are similar to historical and geologic records of the largest known Nankai earthquake in CE 1707 and to an independent, quasi-dynamic rupture model. Notably, these models and records all support focused subsidence around western Shikoku that makes the region particularly vulnerable to flooding. Results imply that contemporary coupling mirrors the slip distribution of a full-margin, 1707-type rupture, and Global Positioning System measurements of surface motion are connected with the trough's physical characteristics.

  2. ICT Based HIL Validation of Voltage Control Coordination in Smart Grids Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahid, Kamal; Petersen, Lennart; Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein

    2018-01-01

    . However, here, the results are validated through a real-time Hardware-In-The-Loop framework using an exemplary benchmark grid area in Denmark as a base case that includes flexible renewable power plants providing voltage control functionality. The provision of voltage control support from ReGen plants...... is verified on a large-scale power system against the baseline scenario, considering the hierarchical industrial controller platforms used nowadays in power plants. Moreover, the verification of online voltage control support is carried out by taking into account a communication network as well......This paper aims to validate the capability of renewable generation (ReGen) plants to provide online voltage control coordination ancillary service to the system operators. Simulation studies on online coordination concepts from ReGen plants have already been identified in previous publications...

  3. Emerging Requirements for Technology Management: A Sector-based Scenario Planning Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Patrick Philbin

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Identifying the emerging requirements for technology management will help organisations to prepare for the future and remain competitive. Indeed technology management as a discipline needs to develop and respond to societal and industrial needs as well as the corresponding technology challenges. Therefore, following a review of technology forecasting methodologies, a sector-based scenario planning approach has been used to derive the emerging requirements for technology management. This structured framework provided an analytical lens to focus on the requirements for managing technology in the healthcare, energy and higher education sectors over the next 5-10 years. These requirements include the need for new business models to support the adoption of technologies; integration of new technologies with existing delivery channels; management of technology options including R&D project management; technology standards, validation and interoperability; and decision-making tools to support technology investment.

  4. Automatic generation control of TCPS based hydrothermal system under open market scenario: A fuzzy logic approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rao, C. Srinivasa [EEE Department, G. Pulla Reddy Engineering College, Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh (India); Nagaraju, S. Siva [EEE Department, J.N.T.U College of Engg., Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh (India); Raju, P. Sangameswara [EEE Department, S.V. University, Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh (India)

    2009-09-15

    This paper presents the analysis of automatic generation control of a two-area interconnected thyristor controlled phase shifter based hydrothermal system in the continuous mode using fuzzy logic controller under open market scenario. Open transmission access and the evolving of more socialized companies for generation, transmission and distribution affects the formulation of AGC problem. So the traditional AGC two-area system is modified to take into account the effect of bilateral contracts on the dynamics. It is possible to stabilize the system frequency and tie-power oscillations by controlling the phase angle of TCPS which is expected to provide a new ancillary service for the future power systems. A control strategy using TCPS is proposed to provide active control of system frequency. Further dynamic responses for small perturbation considering fuzzy logic controller and PI controller (dual mode controller) have been observed and the superior performance of fuzzy logic controller has been reported analytically and also through simulation. (author)

  5. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Winter Weather: Outdoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  7. Outdoor radon variation in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simion, Elena; Simion, Florin

    2008-01-01

    Full text: The results of a long-term survey (1992 - 2006) of the variations of outdoor radon concentrations in semi-natural location from Romania are reported in the present paper. Measurements, covering between two and four sessions of the day (morning, afternoon, evening and night), were performed on a daily bases by 37 Environmental Radioactivity Monitoring Stations from National Environmental Radioactivity Survey Network. The method used was based on indirect determination of outdoor radon from aerosol samples collected on glass micro-fibre filters by drawing the air through the filters. The sampling was performed in a fixed place at a height of 2 m above the ground surface. Total beta counting of aerosol samples collected was performed immediately and after 20 hours. Values recorded during the years of continuous measurement indicated the presence of several patterns in the long-term variation of outdoor radon concentration: diurnal, seasonal and annual variation. For diurnal variation, outdoor radon concentration shows a maximum values in the night (early hours) and minimum values by day (in the afternoon). On average, this maximum is a factor of 2 higher than the minimum. Late autumn - beginning of winter maximum and an early spring minimum are characteristic for seasonal patterns. In the long term a seasonal pattern was observed for diurnal variation, with an average diurnal maximum to minimum ratio of 1.33 in winter compared with 3.0 in the summer months. The variations of outdoor radon levels showed little correlation with the uranium concentration of the ground and were attributed to changes in soil moisture content. In dry seasons, because of the low precipitation, the soil was drying out in the summer allowing fractures to develop and radon to migrate easily through the ground. Depending on micro-climatic and geological conditions, outdoor radon average concentrations in different regions of Romania are from 1200 mBq/mc to 13065 mBq/mc. The smallest

  8. Outdoor thermal comfort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolopoulou, Marialena

    2011-06-01

    A review of the various approaches in understanding outdoor thermal comfort is presented. The emphasis on field surveys from around the world, particularly across Europe, enables us to understand thermal perception and evaluate outdoor thermal comfort conditions. The consistent low correlations between objective microclimatic variables, subjective thermal sensation and comfort outdoors, internationally, suggest that thermophysiology alone does not adequate describe these relationships. Focusing on the concept of adaptation, it tries to explain how this influences outdoor comfort, enabling us to inhabit and get satisfaction from outdoor spaces throughout the year. Beyond acclimatization and behavioral adaptation, through adjustments in clothing and changes to the metabolic heat, psychological adaptation plays a critical role to ensure thermal comfort and satisfaction with the outdoor environment. Such parameters include recent experiences and expectations; personal choice and perceived control, more important than whether that control is actually exercised; and the need for positive environmental stimulation suggesting that thermal neutrality is not a pre-requisite for thermal comfort. Ultimately, enhancing environmental diversity can influence thermal perception and experience of open spaces.

  9. Exploring virtual worlds for scenario-based repeated team training of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creutzfeldt, Johan; Hedman, Leif; Medin, Christopher; Heinrichs, Wm LeRoy; Felländer-Tsai, Li

    2010-09-03

    Contemporary learning technologies, such as massively multiplayer virtual worlds (MMVW), create new means for teaching and training. However, knowledge about the effectiveness of such training is incomplete, and there are no data regarding how students experience it. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is a field within medicine in high demand for new and effective training modalities. In addition to finding a feasible way to implement CPR training, our aim was to investigate how a serious game setting in a virtual world using avatars would influence medical students' subjective experiences as well as their retention of knowledge. An MMVW was refined and used in a study to train 12 medical students in CPR in 3-person teams in a repeated fashion 6 months apart. An exit questionnaire solicited reflections over their experiences. As the subjects trained in 4 CPR scenarios, measurements of self-efficacy, concentration, and mental strain were made in addition to measuring knowledge. Engagement modes and coping strategies were also studied. Parametric and nonparametric statistical analyses were carried out according to distribution of the data. The majority of the subjects reported that they had enjoyed the training, had found it to be suitable, and had learned something new, although several asked for more difficult and complex scenarios as well as a richer virtual environment. The mean values for knowledge dropped during the 6 months from 8.0/10 to 6.25/10 (P = .002). Self-efficacy increased from before to after each of the two training sessions, from 5.9/7 to 6.5/7 (P = .01) after the first and from 6.0/7 to 6.7/7 (P = .03) after the second. The mean perceived concentration value increased from 54.2/100 to 66.6/100 (P = .006), and in general the mental strain was found to be low to moderate (mean = 2.6/10). Using scenario-based virtual world team training with avatars to train medical students in multi-person CPR was feasible and showed promising results. Although we

  10. Virtual screening applications: a study of ligand-based methods and different structure representations in four different scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristozov, Dimitar P; Oprea, Tudor I; Gasteiger, Johann

    2007-01-01

    Four different ligand-based virtual screening scenarios are studied: (1) prioritizing compounds for subsequent high-throughput screening (HTS); (2) selecting a predefined (small) number of potentially active compounds from a large chemical database; (3) assessing the probability that a given structure will exhibit a given activity; (4) selecting the most active structure(s) for a biological assay. Each of the four scenarios is exemplified by performing retrospective ligand-based virtual screening for eight different biological targets using two large databases--MDDR and WOMBAT. A comparison between the chemical spaces covered by these two databases is presented. The performance of two techniques for ligand--based virtual screening--similarity search with subsequent data fusion (SSDF) and novelty detection with Self-Organizing Maps (ndSOM) is investigated. Three different structure representations--2,048-dimensional Daylight fingerprints, topological autocorrelation weighted by atomic physicochemical properties (sigma electronegativity, polarizability, partial charge, and identity) and radial distribution functions weighted by the same atomic physicochemical properties--are compared. Both methods were found applicable in scenario one. The similarity search was found to perform slightly better in scenario two while the SOM novelty detection is preferred in scenario three. No method/descriptor combination achieved significant success in scenario four.

  11. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lv, Y., E-mail: lvyying@hotmail.com [School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, G.H., E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Guo, L., E-mail: guoli8658@hotmail.com [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Li, Y.P., E-mail: yongping.li@iseis.org [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Dai, C., E-mail: daichao321@gmail.com [College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Wang, X.W., E-mail: wangxingwei0812@gamil.com [State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Sun, W., E-mail: sunwei@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada)

    2013-02-15

    Highlights: ► An interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming method is developed. ► It is useful for nuclear emergency management practices under uncertainties. ► It can schedule optimal routes with maximizing evacuees during a finite time. ► Scenario-based analysis enhances robustness in controlling system risk. ► The method will help to improve the capability of disaster responses. -- Abstract: Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents’ consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks.

  12. Comparison of HRA methods based on WWER-1000 NPP real and simulated accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petkov, Gueorgui

    2010-01-01

    Full text: Adequate treatment of human interactions in probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) studies is a key to the understanding of accident sequences and their relative importance in overall risk. Human interactions with machines have long been recognized as important contributors to the safe operation of nuclear power plants (NPP). Human interactions affect the ordering of dominant accident sequences and hence have a significant effect on the risk of NPP. By virtue of the ability to combine the treatment of both human and hardware reliability in real accidents, NPP fullscope, multifunctional and computer-based simulators provide a unique way of developing an understanding of the importance of specific human actions for overall plant safety. Context dependent human reliability assessment (HRA) models, such as the holistic decision tree (HDT) and performance evaluation of teamwork (PET) methods, are the so-called second generation HRA techniques. The HDT model has been used for a number of PSA studies. The PET method reflects promising prospects for dealing with dynamic aspects of human performance. The paper presents a comparison of the two HRA techniques for calculation of post-accident human error probability in the PSA. The real and simulated event training scenario 'turbine's stop after loss of feedwater' based on standard PSA model assumptions is designed for WWER-1000 computer simulator and their detailed boundary conditions are described and analyzed. The error probability of post-accident individual actions will be calculated by means of each investigated technique based on student's computer simulator training archives

  13. Assessment and comparison of total RF-EMF exposure in femtocell and macrocell base station scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Sam; Plets, David; Verloock, Leen; Martens, Luc; Joseph, Wout

    2014-12-01

    The indoor coverage of a mobile service can be drastically improved by deployment of an indoor femtocell base station (FBS). However, the impact of its proximity on the total exposure of the human body to radio-frequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMFs) is unknown. Using a framework designed for the combination of near-field and far-field exposure, the authors assessed and compared the RF-EMF exposure of a mobile-phone (MP) user that is either connected to an FBS or a conventional macrocell base station while in an office environment. It is found that, in average macrocell coverage and MP use-time conditions and for Universal Mobile Telecommunications System technology, the total exposure can be reduced by a factor of 20-40 by using an FBS, mostly due to the significant decrease in the output power of the MP. In general, the framework presented in this study can be used for any exposure scenario, featuring any number of technologies, base stations and/or access points, users and duration. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Improvement of nursing students' learning outcomes through scenario-based skills training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uysal, Nurcan

    2016-08-08

    this study analyzed the influence of scenario-based skills training on students' learning skills. the author evaluated the nursing skills laboratory exam papers of 605 sophomores in nursing programs for seven years. The study determined the common mistakes of students and the laboratory work was designed in a scenario-based format. The effectiveness of this method was evaluated by assessing the number of errors the students committed and their achievement scores in laboratory examinations. This study presents the students' common mistakes in intramuscular and subcutaneous injection and their development of intravenous access skills, included in the nursing skills laboratory examination. an analysis of the students' most common mistakes revealed that the most common was not following the principles of asepsis for all three skills (intramuscular, subcutaneous injection, intravenous access) in the first year of the scenario-based training. The students' exam achievement scores increased gradually, except in the fall semester of the academic year 2009-2010. The study found that the scenario-based skills training reduced students' common mistakes in examinations and enhanced their performance on exams. this method received a positive response from both students and instructors. The scenario-based training is available for use in addition to other skills training methods. en este estudio fue analizada la influencia de la capacitación basada en escenarios en las capacidades de aprendizaje de los alumnos. el autor evaluó los textos de exámenes de laboratorio de habilidades de enfermería producidos por 605 alumnos de segundo año en cursos de enfermería durante siete años. El estudio determinó los errores comunes de los alumnos y el trabajo en laboratorio adoptó el formato basado en escenarios. La eficacia de ese método fue evaluada mediante la cantidad de errores que los alumnos cometieron y sus notas de desempeño en exámenes de laboratorio. Este estudio

  15. Life cycle assessment of cell phones in Brazil based on two reverse logistics scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela da Gama e Silva Volpe Moreira de Moraes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is a result of a cell phone collection obtained at the Center for Information Technology Renato Archer (CTI under the AMBIENTRONIC Program, an initiative that supports the Brazilian electronic sector in the development of technologies for sustainability. The objective of this article is to assess two reverse logistic scenarios of cell phones using the technique of life-cycle assessment (LCA. The first scenario reflects the current scenario in Brazil, where batteries are recycled in Brazil and the other parts of the phones are outsourced to Europe. The second scenario is a proposal of full treatment in Brazil. The results indicate that the second scenario has a lower potential impact with important reduction of acidification, photochemical oxidation, eutrophication and the use of non-renewable energy. Furthermore, fully implementing reverse logistics in Brazil will enable socioeconomic benefits from the sale of materials and the generation of employment and income.

  16. Wind power in Finland up to the year 2025--'soft' scenarios based on expert views

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varho, Vilja; Tapio, Petri

    2005-01-01

    In this article we present a method of constructing 'soft' scenarios applied to the wind power development in Finland up to the year 2025. We asked 14 experts to describe probable and preferable futures using a quantitative questionnaire and qualitative interviews. Wind power production grows in all scenarios but there were differences in the order of magnitude of 10. The growth rate of electricity consumption slows down in all scenarios. Qualitative arguments varied even within clusters, with wind power policy emerging as the main dividing factor. The differences revealed diverse values and political objectives, as well as great uncertainties in assumptions about future developments. These influence wind power policy and were also believed to have contributed to the slow development of wind power in Finland. Re-thinking of the Finnish wind power policy is recommended. The 'soft' scenario method is considered valuable in finding diverse views, constructing transparent scenarios and assisting energy policy making

  17. An Empirical Outdoor-to-Indoor Path Loss Model from below 6 GHz to cm-Wave Frequency Bands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Kovács, István Z.

    2017-01-01

    This letter presents an empirical multi-frequency outdoor-to-indoor path loss model. The model is based on measurements performed on the exact same set of scenarios for different frequency bands ranging from traditional cellular allocations below 6 GHz (0.8, 2, 3.5 and 5.2 GHz), up to cm-wave fre......This letter presents an empirical multi-frequency outdoor-to-indoor path loss model. The model is based on measurements performed on the exact same set of scenarios for different frequency bands ranging from traditional cellular allocations below 6 GHz (0.8, 2, 3.5 and 5.2 GHz), up to cm...

  18. SCENARIO-BASED eLEARNING AND STEM EDUCATION: A QUALITATIVE STUDY EXPLORING THE PERSPECTIVES OF EDUCATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Proudfoot

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There are a variety of extra curricular activities and programs that aim to promote Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM education, but there are limited examples of extending STEM curriculum by employing scenario-based eLearning opportunities in a mobile lab learning environment. Following students participation in a first of its kind STEM Mobile Lab program that uses a scenario-based eLearning approach for instruction, twelve educators from four Title I elementary schools were asked about their perceptions of the influence of the Mobile Lab program on the STEM education of their students. The semi-structured interview protocol contained questions intended to explore participants’ perceptions regarding the influence of a scenario-based eLearning Mobile STEM Lab program on the STEM interest and achievement of students. The study found that a scenario-based eLearning Mobile STEM Lab can influence STEM interest and achievement of elementary students. This promising finding leads to a recommendation for educators to use this approach and similar programs to make students more interested in science and improve their grades. Efforts by educators to design and implement scenario-based eLearning opportunities lead to increased learner engagement.

  19. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  20. ICT Based HIL Validation of Voltage Control Coordination in Smart Grids Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamal Shahid

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to validate the capability of renewable generation (ReGen plants to provide online voltage control coordination ancillary service to the system operators in smart grids. Simulation studies about online coordination concepts from ReGen plants have already been identified in previous publications. However, here, the results are validated through a real-time Hardware-In-the-Loop framework using an exemplary benchmark grid area in Denmark as a base case that includes flexible renewable power plants providing voltage control functionality. The provision of voltage control support from ReGen plants is verified on a large-scale power system against the baseline scenario, considering the hierarchical industrial controller platforms used nowadays in power plants. Moreover, the verification of online voltage control support is carried out by taking into account a communication network as well as the associated data traffic patterns obtained from a real network. Based on the sets of recordings, guidelines and recommendations for practical implementation of the developed control algorithms for targeted ancillary service are made. This provides a deep insight for stakeholders, i.e., wind turbine and photo-voltaic system manufacturers and system operators, regarding the existing boundaries for current technologies and requirements for accommodating the new ancillary services in industrial application.

  1. Application of State Analysis and Goal-based Operations to a MER Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, John Richard; Ingham, Michel D.; Mishkin, Andrew H.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Starbird, Thomas W.

    2006-01-01

    State Analysis is a model-based systems engineering methodology employing a rigorous discovery process which articulates operations concepts and operability needs as an integrated part of system design. The process produces requirements on system and software design in the form of explicit models which describe the system behavior in terms of state variables and the relationships among them. By applying State Analysis to an actual MER flight mission scenario, this study addresses the specific real world challenges of complex space operations and explores technologies that can be brought to bear on future missions. The paper first describes the tools currently used on a daily basis for MER operations planning and provides an in-depth description of the planning process, in the context of a Martian day's worth of rover engineering activities, resource modeling, flight rules, science observations, and more. It then describes how State Analysis allows for the specification of a corresponding goal-based sequence that accomplishes the same objectives, with several important additional benefits.

  2. Introducing Scenario Based Learning interactive to postgraduates in UQ Orthodontic Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naser-ud-Din, S

    2015-08-01

    E-learning has gained momentum in health sciences and seems to have great potential in specialist dental education. Higher acceptability by learners is particularly associated with the surge of smart devices. Currently, there are limited number of e-learning modules available for dental education, particularly in Orthodontics. Scenario Based Learning interactive (SBLi(®)) software was used for the first time in Orthodontics Postgraduate training at the University of Queensland. Nine interactive modules were created embedded with clinical procedure videos, web-links, evidence-based literature, along with opportunity for self-assessment and evaluation. Qualitative data were collected before and after the administration of the SBLi(®) for Orthodontics. The purpose of this data was to investigate learning styles and the acceptance of e-modules as part of postgraduate training. Advantages of the package included high acceptance rate, greater confidence in the application of clinical skills covered in the modules and reduced contact time particularly with limited academic staff. E-modules demonstrated high compatibility with the learning styles of the participants and were considered engaging. It seems apparent that e-learning is most effective in a blended learning environment, supplemented with the traditional classroom approach, rather than as a sole mechanism for postgraduate training. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on the SRES A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100, were adopted in...

  4. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

    2011-01-07

    No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

  5. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Epstein Richard H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

  6. Tsunami Scenario in the Nankai Trough, Japan, Based on the GPS-A and GNSS Velocities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Y.; Watanabe, S. I.; Melgar, D.; Tadokoro, K.

    2017-12-01

    We present two local tsunami scenarios for the Nankai trough, Japan, an area of significant seismic risk, using GPS-A and GNSS velocities and two different plate interface geometries to better assess the slip deficit rate. We expand on the work of Yokota et al. [2016, Nature] by: (1) Adding seafloor data collected by Nagoya University [Tadokoro et al., 2012 GRL] at the Kumano basin, (2) Aligning the geodetic data to the Nankai block (forearc sliver) to the tectonic model of Loveless and Meade [2010 JGR] - the earlier work ignored block boundaries such as the Median Tectonic Line (MTL) and may have overestimated the slip deficit rate, (3) Considering two different plate interface geometries - it is essential to use the accurate depth of the plate interface, especially for the offshore region where the faults are located near the observation sites, (4) Estimating and correcting for the postseismic displacements of the 2004 southeastern off the Kii Peninsula earthquakes (MJMA 7.1, 7.4). Based upon the refined model, we calculate the coseismic displacements and tsunami wave propagation assuming that a hundred years of constant slip deficit accumulation is released instantaneously. We used the open source software GeoClaw v5.3.1, which solves the two-dimensional shallow water equations with the finite volume technique [LeVeque, 2002 Cambridge University Press], for the local tsunami scenarios. We present the expected tsunami propagation models and wave profiles based on the geodetically-derived distribution of slip, stressing the importance of identifying fault locations and geometries. The location of the downdip edge of the coseismic rupture is essential to assess whether the coastal area would subside or not. The sensitivity to the plate interface geometries is increased in the near-trough region. From the point of view of disaster prevention, subsidence at the southern coast would heighten the tsunami runup distance (e.g., at gauges in Shimotsu and Irago). Further

  7. A Compact Energy Harvesting System for Outdoor Wireless Sensor Nodes Based on a Low-Cost In Situ Photovoltaic Panel Characterization-Modelling Unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antolín, Diego; Medrano, Nicolás; Calvo, Belén; Martínez, Pedro A

    2017-08-04

    This paper presents a low-cost high-efficiency solar energy harvesting system to power outdoor wireless sensor nodes. It is based on a Voltage Open Circuit (VOC) algorithm that estimates the open-circuit voltage by means of a multilayer perceptron neural network model trained using local experimental characterization data, which are acquired through a novel low cost characterization system incorporated into the deployed node. Both units-characterization and modelling-are controlled by the same low-cost microcontroller, providing a complete solution which can be understood as a virtual pilot cell, with identical characteristics to those of the specific small solar cell installed on the sensor node, that besides allows an easy adaptation to changes in the actual environmental conditions, panel aging, etc. Experimental comparison to a classical pilot panel based VOC algorithm show better efficiency under the same tested conditions.

  8. Four Scenarios for Europe. Based on UNEP's third Global Environment Outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakkes, J.; Gaponenko, N.; Mnatsakanian, R.

    2003-01-01

    The third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) was published on the eve of the Johannesburg summit (autumn 2002). GEO-3 looked back thirty years and forward thirty years. A set of what-if scenarios was used to explore the ways our society can advance, including implications for environmental and social goals. Characteristically, GEO-3 examines in a relatively deep fashion how its global scenarios can be interpreted in the context of each of the world's regions. This brochure presents the pan-European elaboration of the four GEO-3 scenarios. It focusses on the scenarios proper and their impacts in environmental terms. The scenarios are: The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the currently prevailing values and expectations in industrialized countries; In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to achieve specific social and environmental goals; The Security First scenario assumes a world full of large disparities, where inequality and conflict, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses, prevail: and Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability supported by new, more equitable values and institutions. The second section describes 'the pan-European tale of the four futures' in a predominantly qualitative manner. Section 3 presents a regionally differentiated examination of the environmental implications of the scenarios. Details on input material, assumptions and methodologies applied, and actual results, can be found in Chapter 4 of GEO-3 'Outlook 2002-32' and in the Technical Background Report on GEO-3 Scenario Work

  9. Projecting the environmental profile of Singapore's landfill activities: Comparisons of present and future scenarios based on LCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoo, Hsien H; Tan, Lester L Z; Tan, Reginald B H

    2012-05-01

    This article aims to generate the environmental profile of Singapore's Semakau landfill by comparing three different operational options associated with the life cycle stages of landfilling activities, against a 'business as usual' scenario. Before life cycle assessment or LCA is used to quantify the potential impacts from landfilling activities, an attempt to incorporate localized and empirical information into the amounts of ash and MSW sent to the landfill was made. A linear regression representation of the relationship between the mass of waste disposed and the mass of incineration ash generated was modeled from waste statistics between years 2004 and 2009. Next, the mass of individual MSW components was projected from 2010 to 2030. The LCA results highlighted that in a 'business as usual' scenario the normalized total impacts of global warming, acidification and human toxicity increased by about 2% annually from 2011 to 2030. By replacing the 8000-tonne barge with a 10000-tonne coastal bulk carrier or freighter (in scenario 2) a grand total reduction of 48% of both global warming potential and acidification can be realized by year 2030. Scenario 3 explored the importance of having a Waste Water Treatment Plant in place to reduce human toxicity levels - however, the overall long-term benefits were not as significant as scenario 2. It is shown in scenario 4 that the option of increased recycling championed over all other three scenarios in the long run, resulting in a total 58% reduction in year 2030 for the total normalized results. A separate comparison of scenarios 1-4 is also carried out for energy utilization and land use in terms of volume of waste occupied. Along with the predicted reductions in environmental burdens, an additional bonus is found in the expanded lifespan of Semakau landfill from year 2032 (base case) to year 2039. Model limitations and suggestions for improvements were also discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

    2017-12-01

    Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  11. System Dynamics based Dengue modeling environment to simulate evolution of Dengue infection under different climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, R.; Khan, R.; Usmani, M.; Colwell, R. R.; Jutla, A.

    2017-12-01

    Vector borne infectious diseases such as Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya remain a public health threat. An estimate of the World Health Organization (WHO) suggests that about 2.5 billion people, representing ca. 40% of human population,are at increased risk of dengue; with more than 100 million infection cases every year. Vector-borne infections cannot be eradicated since disease causing pathogens survive in the environment. Over the last few decades dengue infection has been reported in more than 100 countries and is expanding geographically. Female Ae. Aegypti mosquito, the daytime active and a major vector for dengue virus, is associated with urban population density and regional climatic processes. However, mathematical quantification of relationships on abundance of vectors and climatic processes remain a challenge, particularly in regions where such data are not routinely collected. Here, using system dynamics based feedback mechanism, an algorithm integrating knowledge from entomological, meteorological and epidemiological processes is developed that has potential to provide ensemble simulations on risk of occurrence of dengue infection in human population. Using dataset from satellite remote sensing, the algorithm was calibrated and validated using actual dengue case data of Iquitos, Peru. We will show results on model capabilities in capturing initiation and peak in the observed time series. In addition, results from several simulation scenarios under different climatic conditions will be discussed.

  12. Scenario-based electric bus operation: A case study of Putrajaya, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lay Eng Teoh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Globally, transportation sector has emerged as one of the major sources of air pollution. Correspondingly, green mobility (with electric bus is gaining increasing attention as an essential step to mitigate emission concern. As such, a proper electric bus network design and fleet planning is important especially for bus operator to acquire an adequate number of electric bus, right on time, in order to operate electric bus system viably. Thus, this paper aims to examine the possibility to operate electric bus as a replacement for the conventional bus operation (with natural gas buses for the study area in Putrajaya, Malaysia. In order to determine a proper-designed electric bus operating system in terms of electric bus route, service frequency and quantity, the proposed methodology is developed with the aid of a traffic modeling software to cater various scenarios. Based on the existing (conventional traffic and transit system in Putrajaya, the developed electric bus operating model is calibrated accordingly by considering various operational concerns including battery capacity and charging facility. The resultant findings revealed that the developed electric bus operating system in Putrajaya outperforms the conventional bus operation, not only in generating a higher profit margin for the bus operator, but also satisfying the passengers in a better manner (by carrying more passengers per unit of bus with a lower energy consumption.

  13. Scenario-based risk analysis of winter snowstorms in the German lowlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wulffen, Anja

    2014-05-01

    conditions. Based on these findings, an exemplary synoptic evolution of a snowstorm leading to representative infrastructure failure cascades is constructed. In a next step, an extrapolation of this obtained scenario to future climate and societal conditions as well as plausible more extreme but not yet observed meteorological conditions is planned in order to obtain a thorough analysis of possible threats to the German food distribution system and a strong foundation for future disaster mitigation planning efforts.

  14. Coordinating mobile actors in pervasive and mobile scenarios : an AI-based approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leoni, de M.; Marrella, A.; Mecella, M.; Valentini, S.; Sardina, S.

    2008-01-01

    Process Management Systems (PMSs) can be used not only in classical business scenarios, but also in highly dynamic and uncertain environments, for example, in supporting operators during Emergency Management for coordinating their activities. In such challenging situations, processes should be

  15. Strategic bidding in electricity markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto, Tiago; Praca, Isabel; Morais, Hugo

    2013-01-01

    the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the ac-tion to be performed......Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific charac-teristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to sup-port decisions in competitive environments; therefore its...... application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit...

  16. Predicting outdoor sound

    CERN Document Server

    Attenborough, Keith; Horoshenkov, Kirill

    2014-01-01

    1. Introduction  2. The Propagation of Sound Near Ground Surfaces in a Homogeneous Medium  3. Predicting the Acoustical Properties of Outdoor Ground Surfaces  4. Measurements of the Acoustical Properties of Ground Surfaces and Comparisons with Models  5. Predicting Effects of Source Characteristics on Outdoor Sound  6. Predictions, Approximations and Empirical Results for Ground Effect Excluding Meteorological Effects  7. Influence of Source Motion on Ground Effect and Diffraction  8. Predicting Effects of Mixed Impedance Ground  9. Predicting the Performance of Outdoor Noise Barriers  10. Predicting Effects of Vegetation, Trees and Turbulence  11. Analytical Approximations including Ground Effect, Refraction and Turbulence  12. Prediction Schemes  13. Predicting Sound in an Urban Environment.

  17. Rescuing ethanol photosynthetic production of cyanobacteria in non-sterilized outdoor cultivations with a bicarbonate-based pH-rising strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhi; Luan, Guodong; Tan, Xiaoming; Zhang, Haocui; Lu, Xuefeng

    2017-01-01

    Ethanol photosynthetic production based on cyanobacteria cell factories utilizing CO 2 and solar energy provides an attractive solution for sustainable production of green fuels. However, the scaling up processes of cyanobacteria cell factories were usually threatened or even devastated by biocontaminations, which restricted biomass or products accumulations of cyanobacteria cells. Thus it is of great significance to develop reliable biocontamination-controlling strategies for promoting ethanol photosynthetic production in large scales. The scaling up process of a previously developed Synechocystis strain Syn-HZ24 for ethanol synthesis was severely inhibited and devastated by a specific contaminant, Pannonibacter phragmitetus , which overcame the growths of cyanobacteria cells and completely consumed the ethanol accumulation in the cultivation systems. Physiological analysis revealed that growths and ethanol-consuming activities of the contaminant were sensitive to alkaline conditions, while ethanol-synthesizing cyanobacteria strain Syn-HZ24 could tolerate alkaline pH conditions as high as 11.0, indicating that pH-increasing strategy might be a feasible approach for rescuing ethanol photosynthetic production in outdoor cultivation systems. Thus, we designed and evaluated a Bicarbonate-based Integrated Carbon Capture System (BICCS) derived pH-rising strategy to rescue the ethanol photosynthetic production in non-sterilized conditions. In lab scale artificially simulated systems, pH values of BG11 culture medium were maintained around 11.0 by 180 mM NaHCO 3 and air steam, under which the infection of Pannonibacter phragmitetus was significantly restricted, recovering ethanol production of Syn-HZ24 by about 80%. As for outdoor cultivations, ethanol photosynthetic production of Syn-HZ24 was also successfully rescued by the BICCS-derived pH-rising strategy, obtaining a final ethanol concentration of 0.9 g/L after 10 days cultivation. In this work, a novel product

  18. Scenario Simulation-Based Assessment of Trip Difficulty for Urban Residents under Rainstorm Waterlogging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingyue Sun

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an experiment was performed to assess the trip difficulty for urban residents of different age groups walking in various depths of water, and the data were corroborated with the real urban rainstorm waterlogging scenarios in downtown (Daoli district Ha-Erbin (China. Mathematical models of urban rainstorm waterlogging were constructed using scenario simulation methods, aided by the GIS spatial analysis technology and hydrodynamic analysis of the waterway systems in the study area. Then these models were used to evaluate the impact of waterlogging on the safety of residents walking in the affected area. Results are summarized as: (1 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 10 years, three grid regions would have waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at a velocity of 1.5 m/s. Under this scenario, waterlogging would accumulate on traffic roads only in small areas, affecting the safety and mobility of residents walking in the neighborhood; (2 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 20 years, 13 grids experienced the same waterlogging situation affecting a larger area of the city; (3 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 50 years, 86 grid regions were affected (waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at 1.5 m/s, and those areas would become impassable for residents.

  19. Scenario-Based Analysis on Water Resources Implication of Coal Power in Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahai Yuan

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Currently, 58% of coal-fired power generation capacity is located in eastern China, where the demand for electricity is strong. Serious air pollution in China, in eastern regions in particular, has compelled the Chinese government to impose a ban on the new construction of pulverized coal power plants in eastern regions. Meanwhile, rapid economic growth is thirsty for electric power supply. As a response, China planned to build large-scale coal power bases in six western provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Ningxia and Gansu. In this paper, the water resource implication of the coal power base planning is addressed. We find that, in a business-as-usual (BAU scenario, water consumption for coal power generation in these six provinces will increase from 1130 million m3 in 2012 to 2085 million m3 in 2020, experiencing nearly a double growth. Such a surge will exert great pressure on water supply and lead to serious water crisis in these already water-starved regions. A strong implication is that the Chinese Government must add water resource constraint as a critical point in its overall sustainable development plan, in addition to energy supply and environment protection. An integrated energy-water resource plan with regionalized environmental carrying capacity as constraints should be developed to settle this puzzle. Several measures are proposed to cope with it, including downsizing coal power in western regions, raising the technical threshold of new coal power plants and implementing retrofitting to the inefficient cooling system, and reengineering the generation process to waterless or recycled means.

  20. Sustainable Systems Analysis of Production and Transportation Scenarios for Conventional and Bio-based Energy Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, E. M.; Golden, J. S.; Nowacek, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    International commerce places unique pressures on the sustainability of water resources and marine environments. System impacts include noise, emissions, and chemical and biological pollutants like introduction of invasive species into key ecosystems. At the same time, maritime trade also enables the sustainability ambition of intragenerational equity in the economy through the global circulation of commodities and manufactured goods, including agricultural, energy and mining resources (UN Trade and Development Board 2013). This paper presents a framework to guide the analysis of the multiple dimensions of the sustainable commerce-ocean nexus. As a demonstration case, we explore the social, economic and environmental aspects of the nexus framework using scenarios for the production and transportation of conventional and bio-based energy commodities. Using coupled LCA and GIS methodologies, we are able to orient the findings spatially for additional insight. Previous work on the sustainable use of marine resources has focused on distinct aspects of the maritime environment. The framework presented here, integrates the anthropogenic use, governance and impacts on the marine and coastal environments with the natural components of the system. A similar framework has been highly effective in progressing the study of land-change science (Turner et al 2007), however modification is required for the unique context of the marine environment. This framework will enable better research integration and planning for sustainability objectives including mitigation and adaptation to climate change, sea level rise, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, protection of critical marine habitat and species, and better management of the ocean as an emerging resource base for the production and transport of commodities and energy across the globe. The framework can also be adapted for vulnerability analysis, resilience studies and to evaluate the trends in production, consumption and

  1. The Dirt on Outdoor Classrooms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rich, Steve

    2000-01-01

    Explains the planning procedure for outdoor classrooms and introduces an integrated unit on monarch butterflies called the Monarch Watch program. Makes recommendations to solve financial problems of outdoor classrooms. (YDS)

  2. An Event-Based Approach to Design a Teamwork Training Scenario and Assessment Tool in Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Ngan; Watson, William D; Dominguez, Edward

    2016-01-01

    Simulation is a technique recommended for teaching and measuring teamwork, but few published methodologies are available on how best to design simulation for teamwork training in surgery and health care in general. The purpose of this article is to describe a general methodology, called event-based approach to training (EBAT), to guide the design of simulation for teamwork training and discuss its application to surgery. The EBAT methodology draws on the science of training by systematically introducing training exercise events that are linked to training requirements (i.e., competencies being trained and learning objectives) and performance assessment. The EBAT process involves: Of the 4 teamwork competencies endorsed by the Agency for Healthcare Research Quality and Department of Defense, "communication" was chosen to be the focus of our training efforts. A total of 5 learning objectives were defined based on 5 validated teamwork and communication techniques. Diagnostic laparoscopy was chosen as the clinical context to frame the training scenario, and 29 KSAs were defined based on review of published literature on patient safety and input from subject matter experts. Critical events included those that correspond to a specific phase in the normal flow of a surgical procedure as well as clinical events that may occur when performing the operation. Similar to the targeted KSAs, targeted responses to the critical events were developed based on existing literature and gathering input from content experts. Finally, a 29-item EBAT-derived checklist was created to assess communication performance. Like any instructional tool, simulation is only effective if it is designed and implemented appropriately. It is recognized that the effectiveness of simulation depends on whether (1) it is built upon a theoretical framework, (2) it uses preplanned structured exercises or events to allow learners the opportunity to exhibit the targeted KSAs, (3) it assesses performance, and (4

  3. Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A. Waylen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM is a concept critical to managing social-ecological systems but whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM but whose potential is not yet well understood. Therefore, we designed, trialed, and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended to support CBNRM in three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina. Implementing scenario planning was judged as worthwhile in all three cases, although aspects of it were challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM: encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge, enhanced consideration of and adaptation to future change, and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arose was challenging, but two elements of the method seemed particularly useful. First, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect local social-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues. Second, explicitly focusing on how to use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities, or "response options," that would support CBNRM despite the pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors, e.g., policy groups: this raised the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario planning, so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process. We suggest that other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adapting and applying scenario planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored because further research is required to understand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, as well as their strengths and weaknesses versus other methods.

  4. Constructing APT Attack Scenarios Based on Intrusion Kill Chain and Fuzzy Clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ru Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The APT attack on the Internet is becoming more serious, and most of intrusion detection systems can only generate alarms to some steps of APT attack and cannot identify the pattern of the APT attack. To detect APT attack, many researchers established attack models and then correlated IDS logs with the attack models. However, the accuracy of detection deeply relied on the integrity of models. In this paper, we propose a new method to construct APT attack scenarios by mining IDS security logs. These APT attack scenarios can be further used for the APT detection. First, we classify all the attack events by purpose of phase of the intrusion kill chain. Then we add the attack event dimension to fuzzy clustering, correlate IDS alarm logs with fuzzy clustering, and generate the attack sequence set. Next, we delete the bug attack sequences to clean the set. Finally, we use the nonaftereffect property of probability transfer matrix to construct attack scenarios by mining the attack sequence set. Experiments show that the proposed method can construct the APT attack scenarios by mining IDS alarm logs, and the constructed scenarios match the actual situation so that they can be used for APT attack detection.

  5. Earthquake Scenarios Based Upon the Data and Methodologies of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rukstales, K. S.; Petersen, M. D.; Frankel, A. D.; Harmsen, S. C.; Wald, D. J.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Haller, K. M.

    2011-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) utilizes a database of over 500 faults across the conterminous United States to constrain earthquake source models for probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Additionally, the fault database is now being used to produce a suite of deterministic ground motions for earthquake scenarios that are based on the same fault source parameters and empirical ground motion prediction equations used for the probabilistic hazard maps. Unlike the calculated hazard map ground motions, local soil amplification is applied to the scenario calculations based on the best available Vs30 (average shear-wave velocity down to 30 meters) mapping, or in some cases using topographic slope as a proxy. Systematic outputs include all standard USGS ShakeMap products, including GIS, KML, XML, and HAZUS input files. These data are available from the ShakeMap web pages with a searchable archive. The scenarios are being produced within the framework of a geographic information system (GIS) so that alternative scenarios can readily be produced by altering fault source parameters, Vs30 soil amplification, as well as the weighting of ground motion prediction equations used in the calculations. The alternative scenarios can then be used for sensitivity analysis studies to better characterize uncertainty in the source model and convey this information to decision makers. By providing a comprehensive collection of earthquake scenarios based upon the established data and methods of the USGS NSHMP, we hope to provide a well-documented source of data which can be used for visualization, planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and research purposes.

  6. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    a very local-dependent hazard. Also, for major earthquakes, nonlinear effects need to be considered. This problem is treated accordingly, by using recent microzonation studies, together with real data recorded at 4 events with Mw≥6. Different ground motion prediction equations are also analyzed, and improvement of them is investigated. For the buildings and population damage assessment, two open-source software are used and compared: SELENA and ELER. The damage probability for buildings is obtained through capacity-spectrum based methods. The spectral content is used for spectral acceleration at 0.2, 0.3 and 1 seconds. As the level of analysis (6 sectors for all the city) has not the best resolution with respect to the Bucharest hazard scenarios defined, we propose a procedure on how to divide the data into smaller units, taking into consideration the construction code (4 periods) and material. This approach relies on free data available from real estate agencies web-sites. The study provides an insight view on the seismic risk analysis for Bucharest and an improvement of the real-time emergency system. Most important, the system is also evaluated through real data and relevant scenarios. State-of-the art GIS maps are also presented, both for seismic hazard and risk.

  7. Turismo Activo y Outdoor Training: Metodología. (Adventure Sport Tourism and Outdoor Training: Methodology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vicente Gómez Encinas

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available ResumenUno de los aspectos más atractivos que tiene el outdoor training es su supuesta capacidad para conseguir que los aprendizajes obtenidos a través de sus actividades sean transferidos a otros ámbitos de la vida personal y profesional de sus participantes. En este sentido, la clave está en la metodología empleada. Este artículo profundiza en las fases que estructuran el proceso formativo del outdoor training describiendo: 1 las bases folosóficas que lo apoyan y que están expresadas en la teoría de la “educación a través de la experiencia” y 2 las diferentes fases que estructuran el proceso de formación de un outdoor, haciendo una descripción en profundidad de cada una de ellas: a Pre-Outdoor (Análisis y valoración de las necesidades, diseño de la actividad y reunión previa a la actividad, b Outdoor, c Post-outdoor (Reflexión y transferencia, y d Seguimiento posterior.AbstractOne of the most attractive aspects that has the outdoor training is their supposed capacity to get that the learnings obtained through their activities are transferred to other environments of the personal life and their participants' professional. In this sense, the key is in the used methodology. This article deepens in the phases that structure the formative process of the outdoor training describing: 1 the philosophy´s bases that support this process and that are expressed in the theory of experiential education, and 2 the different phases that structure the process of formation of an outdoor, making a description in depth of each one of them: to Pre-Outdoor (Analysis and valuation of the necessities, design of the activity and previous meeting to the activity, b Outdoor, c Post-outdoor (Reflection and transfer, and d Later Pursuit.

  8. Mapping of Outdoor Classrooms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horvath, Victor G.

    Mapping symbols adopted by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources are presented with their explanations. In an effort to provide standardization and familiarity teachers and other school people involved in an outdoor education program are encouraged to utilize the same symbols in constructing maps. (DK)

  9. Innovation and Outdoor Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beames, Simon

    2017-01-01

    Within our fast-paced, fluid society, it is arguable that outdoor education needs to be innovative to play a useful role in young people's overall educational enterprise. A critical view, however, would suggest that we must beware of accepting technological innovation for its own sake. Innovations (or improvements) in education can take the form…

  10. Competency in managing cardiac arrest: A scenario-based evaluation of dental students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuer, Georg; Knipfer, Christian; Huber, Tobias; Huettl, Stephan; Shams, Nima; Knipfer, Kristin; Neukam, Friedrich Wilhelm; Schuettler, Juergen; Stelzle, Florian

    2016-01-01

    Advanced Cardiovascular Life Support (ACLS) in life-threatening situations is perceived as a basic skill for dental professionals. However, medical emergency training in dental schools is often not standardized. The dental students' knowledge transfer to an ACLS setting thus remains questionable. The aim of the study was to evaluate dental pre-doctorate students' practical competence in ACLS in a standardized manner to enable the curriculum to be adapted to meet their particular needs. Thirty dental students (age 25.47 ± 1.81; 16 male/14 female) in their last year of dental studies were randomly assigned to 15 teams. Students' ability to successfully manage ACLS was assessed by a scenario-based approach (training module: Laerdal® ALS Skillmaster). Competence was assessed by means of (a) an observation chart, (b) video analysis and (c) training module analysis (Laerdal HeartSim®4000; Version 1.4). The evaluation was conducted by a trained anesthesiologist with regard to the 2010 guidelines of the European Resuscitation Council (ERC). Only five teams (33.3%) checked for all three vital functions (response, breathing and circulation). All teams initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Only 54.12% of the compressions performed during CPR were sufficient. Four teams stopped the CPR after initiation. In total, 93% of the teams used the equipment for bag-valve-mask ventilation and 53.3% used the AED (Automated external defibrillator). ACLS training on a regular basis is necessary and, consistent with a close link between dentistry and medicine, should be a standardized part of the medical emergency curriculum for dental students with a specific focus on the deficiencies revealed in this study.

  11. Life cycle assessment of Italian citrus-based products. Sensitivity analysis and improvement scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beccali, Marco; Cellura, Maurizio; Iudicello, Maria; Mistretta, Marina

    2010-07-01

    Though many studies concern the agro-food sector in the EU and Italy, and its environmental impacts, literature is quite lacking in works regarding LCA application on citrus products. This paper represents one of the first studies on the environmental impacts of citrus products in order to suggest feasible strategies and actions to improve their environmental performance. In particular, it is part of a research aimed to estimate environmental burdens associated with the production of the following citrus-based products: essential oil, natural juice and concentrated juice from oranges and lemons. The life cycle assessment of these products, published in a previous paper, had highlighted significant environmental issues in terms of energy consumption, associated CO(2) emissions, and water consumption. Starting from such results the authors carry out an improvement analysis of the assessed production system, whereby sustainable scenarios for saving water and energy are proposed to reduce environmental burdens of the examined production system. In addition, a sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of the chosen methods will be performed, giving data on the outcome of the study. Uncertainty related to allocation methods, secondary data sources, and initial assumptions on cultivation, transport modes, and waste management is analysed. The results of the performed analyses allow stating that every assessed eco-profile is differently influenced by the uncertainty study. Different assumptions on initial data and methods showed very sensible variations in the energy and environmental performances of the final products. Besides, the results show energy and environmental benefits that clearly state the improvement of the products eco-profile, by reusing purified water use for irrigation, using the railway mode for the delivery of final products, when possible, and adopting efficient technologies, as the mechanical vapour recompression, in the pasteurisation and

  12. Photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils under a climate change base scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Audí-Miró, Carme; Sierra, Jordi; Soler, Albert; Nadal, Martí; Domingo, José L

    2016-04-01

    The photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two typical Mediterranean soils, either coarse- or fine-textured, was here investigated. Soil samples, spiked with the 16 US EPA priority PAHs, were incubated in a climate chamber at stable conditions of temperature (20 °C) and light (9.6 W m(-2)) for 28 days, simulating a climate change base scenario. PAH concentrations in soils were analyzed throughout the experiment, and correlated with data obtained by means of Microtox(®) ecotoxicity test. Photodegradation was found to be dependent on exposure time, molecular weight of each hydrocarbon, and soil texture. Fine-textured soil was able to enhance sorption, being PAHs more photodegraded than in coarse-textured soil. According to the EC50 values reported by Microtox(®), a higher detoxification was observed in fine-textured soil, being correlated with the outcomes of the analytical study. Significant photodegradation rates were detected for a number of PAHs, namely phenanthrene, anthracene, benzo(a)pyrene, and indeno(123-cd)pyrene. Benzo(a)pyrene, commonly used as an indicator for PAH pollution, was completely removed after 7 days of light exposure. In addition to the PAH chemical analysis and the ecotoxicity tests, a hydrogen isotope analysis of benzo(a)pyrene was also carried out. The degradation of this specific compound was associated to a high enrichment in (2)H, obtaining a maximum δ(2)H isotopic shift of +232‰. This strong isotopic effect observed in benzo(a)pyrene suggests that compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) may be a powerful tool to monitor in situ degradation of PAHs. Moreover, hydrogen isotopes of benzo(a)pyrene evidenced a degradation process of unknown origin occurring in the darkness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Depiction of priority light-vehicle pre-crash scenarios for safety applications based on vehicle-to-vehicle communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-30

    A template of pre-crash scenarios is presented to depict national crash statistics and kinematic information of time-to-collision for the design of appropriate crash countermeasures based on vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications. This template serv...

  14. A model of negotiation scenarios based on time, relevance andcontrol used to define advantageous positions in a negotiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Guillermo Rojas Altamirano

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Models that apply to negotiation are based on different perspectives that range from the relationship between the actors, game theory or the steps in a procedure. This research proposes a model of negotiation scenarios that considers three factors (time, relevance and control, which are displayed as the most important in a negotiation. These factors interact with each other and create different scenarios for each of the actors involved in a negotiation. The proposed model not only facilitates the creation of a negotiation strategy but also an ideal choice of effective tactics.

  15. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  16. A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

    2016-12-01

    understand impacts of air pollution on health and climate in Kathmandu Valley and Nepal. Future emissions are being developed based on different possible growth scenarios and policy interventions to mitigate emissions.

  17. Outdoor Education and Science Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rios, José M.; Brewer, Jessica

    2014-01-01

    Elementary students have limited opportunities to learn science in an outdoor setting at school. Some suggest this is partially due to a lack of teacher efficacy teaching in an outdoor setting. Yet the research literature indicates that outdoor learning experiences develop positive environmental attitudes and can positively affect science…

  18. The design of scenario-based training from the resilience engineering perspective: a study with grid electricians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saurin, Tarcisio Abreu; Wachs, Priscila; Righi, Angela Weber; Henriqson, Eder

    2014-07-01

    Although scenario-based training (SBT) can be an effective means to help workers develop resilience skills, it has not yet been analyzed from the resilience engineering (RE) perspective. This study introduces a five-stage method for designing SBT from the RE view: (a) identification of resilience skills, work constraints and actions for re-designing the socio-technical system; (b) design of template scenarios, allowing the simulation of the work constraints and the use of resilience skills; (c) design of the simulation protocol, which includes briefing, simulation and debriefing; (d) implementation of both scenarios and simulation protocol; and (e) evaluation of the scenarios and simulation protocol. It is reported how the method was applied in an electricity distribution company, in order to train grid electricians. The study was framed as an application of design science research, and five research outputs are discussed: method, constructs, model of the relationships among constructs, instantiations of the method, and theory building. Concerning the last output, the operationalization of the RE perspective on three elements of SBT is presented: identification of training objectives; scenario design; and debriefing. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Victoria Katherine

    involved in completing the modeling and simulation are: Alternative Solution Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation. Focus area three consists of Decision Support. In this area a decision support interface is created that allows for game playing between solution alternatives and risk mitigation. A multi-attribute decision making process is also implemented to aid in decision making. A demonstration problem inspired by Airbus' mid 1980s decision to break into the widebody long-range market was developed to illustrate the use of this method. The results showed that the method is able to capture additional types of risk than previous analysis methods, particularly at the early stages of aircraft design. It was also shown that the method can be used to help create a system that is robust to external environmental factors. The addition of an external environment risk analysis in the early stages of conceptual design can add another dimension to the analysis of feasibility and viability. The ability to take risk into account during the early stages of the design process can allow for the elimination of potentially feasible and viable but too-risky alternatives. The addition of a scenario-based analysis instead of a traditional probabilistic analysis enabled uncertainty to be effectively bound and examined over a variety of potential futures instead of only a single future. There is also potential for a product to be groomed for a specific future that one believes is likely to happen, or for a product to be steered during design as the future unfolds.

  20. Scenario Analysis of Natural Gas Consumption in China Based on Wavelet Neural Network Optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deyun Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Natural gas consumption has increased with an average annual growth rate of about 10% between 2012 and 2017. Total natural gas consumption accounted for 6.4% of consumed primary energy resources in 2016, up from 5.4% in 2012, making China the world’s third-largest gas user. Therefore, accurately predicting natural gas consumption has become very important for market participants to organize indigenous production, foreign supply contracts and infrastructures in a better way. This paper first presents the main factors affecting China’s natural gas consumption, and then proposes a hybrid forecasting model by combining the particle swarm optimization algorithm and wavelet neural network (PSO-WNN. In PSO-WNN model, the initial weights and wavelet parameters are optimized using PSO algorithm and updated through a dynamic learning rate to improve the training speed, forecasting precision and reduce fluctuation of WNN. The experimental results show the superiority of the proposed model compared with ANN and WNN based models. Then, this study conducts the scenario analysis of the natural gas consumption from 2017 to 2025 in China based on three scenarios, namely low scenario, reference scenario and high scenario, and the results illustrate that the China’s natural gas consumption is going to be 342.70, 358.27, 366.42 million tce (“standard” tons coal equivalent in 2020, and 407.01, 437.95, 461.38 million tce in 2025 under the low, reference and high scenarios, respectively. Finally, this paper provides some policy suggestions on natural gas exploration and development, infrastructure construction and technical innovations to promote a sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry.

  1. Construct and face validity of the educational computer-based environment (ECE) assessment scenarios for basic endoneurosurgery skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cagiltay, Nergiz Ercil; Ozcelik, Erol; Sengul, Gokhan; Berker, Mustafa

    2017-11-01

    In neurosurgery education, there is a paradigm shift from time-based training to criterion-based model for which competency and assessment becomes very critical. Even virtual reality simulators provide alternatives to improve education and assessment in neurosurgery programs and allow for several objective assessment measures, there are not many tools for assessing the overall performance of trainees. This study aims to develop and validate a tool for assessing the overall performance of participants in a simulation-based endoneurosurgery training environment. A training program was developed in two levels: endoscopy practice and beginning surgical practice based on four scenarios. Then, three experiments were conducted with three corresponding groups of participants (Experiment 1, 45 (32 beginners, 13 experienced), Experiment 2, 53 (40 beginners, 13 experienced), and Experiment 3, 26 (14 novices, 12 intermediate) participants). The results analyzed to understand the common factors among the performance measurements of these experiments. Then, a factor capable of assessing the overall skill levels of surgical residents was extracted. Afterwards, the proposed measure was tested to estimate the experience levels of the participants. Finally, the level of realism of these educational scenarios was assessed. The factor formed by time, distance, and accuracy on simulated tasks provided an overall performance indicator. The prediction correctness was very high for the beginners than the one for experienced surgeons in Experiments 1 and 2. When non-dominant hand is used in a surgical procedure-based scenario, skill levels of surgeons can be better predicted. The results indicate that the scenarios in Experiments 1 and 2 can be used as an assessment tool for the beginners, and scenario-2 in Experiment 3 can be used as an assessment tool for intermediate and novice levels. It can be concluded that forming the balance between perceived action capacities and skills is

  2. Stochastic Dynamic AC Optimal Power Flow Based on a Multivariate Short-Term Wind Power Scenario Forecasting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenlei Bai

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The deterministic methods generally used to solve DC optimal power flow (OPF do not fully capture the uncertainty information in wind power, and thus their solutions could be suboptimal. However, the stochastic dynamic AC OPF problem can be used to find an optimal solution by fully capturing the uncertainty information of wind power. That uncertainty information of future wind power can be well represented by the short-term future wind power scenarios that are forecasted using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM—a novel multivariate statistical wind power forecasting model. Furthermore, the GDFM can accurately represent the spatial and temporal correlations among wind farms through the multivariate stochastic process. Fully capturing the uncertainty information in the spatially and temporally correlated GDFM scenarios can lead to a better AC OPF solution under a high penetration level of wind power. Since the GDFM is a factor analysis based model, the computational time can also be reduced. In order to further reduce the computational time, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm is used to solve the AC OPF problem based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios. Using the modified ABC algorithm based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios has resulted in better AC OPF’ solutions on an IEEE 118-bus system at every hour for 24 h.

  3. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  4. Scenario-Based Case Study Analysis of Asteroid Mitigation in the Short Response Time Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seery, B.; Greenaugh, K. C.

    2017-12-01

    known values for key parameters and expert elicitation to make educated guesses on the unknown parameters, including an estimate of the overall uncertainties in those values. Our scenario-based systems approach includes 2-D and 3-D physics-based modeling and simulations.

  5. Top-down workforce demand extrapolation based on an EC energy road-map scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Von Estorff, U.

    2014-01-01

    The EHRO-N team of JRC-IET provides the EC with essential data related to supply and demand for nuclear experts based on bottom-up information from the nuclear industry. The current paper deals with an alternative approach to derive figures for the demand side information of the nuclear workforce. Complementary to the bottom-up approach, a top-down modelling approach extrapolation of an EC Energy road-map nuclear energy demand scenario is followed here in addition to the survey information. In this top-down modelling approach, the number of nuclear power plants that are in operation and under construction is derived as a function of time from 2010 up to 2050 assuming that the current reactor park will be replaced by generic third generation reactors of 1400 MWe or 1000 MWe. Depending on the size of new build reactors, the analysis shows the number of new reactors required to fulfil the demand for nuclear energy. Based on workforce models for operation and construction of nuclear power plants, the model allows an extrapolation of these respective work-forces. Using the nuclear skills pyramid, the total workforce employed at a plant is broken down in a nuclear (experts), nuclearized, and nuclear aware workforce. With retirement profiles for nuclear power plants derived from the bottom-up EHRO-N survey, the replacement of the current workforce is taken into account. The peak of the new workforce (partly replacing the retiring workforce and additionally keeping up with the growing total workforce demand) for nuclear experts and nuclearized employees is to be expected at the end of the considered period (2050). However, the peak workforce for nuclear aware employees is to be expected around 2020. When comparing to historical data for the nuclear capacity being installed at the same time in Europe, it is clear that the expected future capacity to be installed at the same time in Europe is significantly lower (factor of 2) than in the early 1980's. However, it should

  6. Understanding compliance to privacy guidelines using text-and video-based scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Al Mahmud, A.; Kaptein, M.C.; Moran, O.P.; Garde - Perik, van de E.M.; Markopoulos, P.; Baranauskas, C.; Palanque, P.

    2008-01-01

    Privacy is a major concern for the design and user acceptance of pervasive technology. Investigating privacy poses several methodological challenges. A popular approach involves surveying reactions of people to scenarios that highlight privacy issues. This paper examines the validity of this

  7. The Education Council Report 2001: An Evaluation Based on the ATEE-RDC19 Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikl, Josef

    2003-01-01

    Examines recent developments in European Union educational policy, highlighting a 2001 document of the Education Council. Evaluates the document's intentions and directions from a pedagogical viewpoint and assesses the document using the Association for Teacher Education in Europe's scenario framework. Shows that future European Union education…

  8. Cluster Risk of Walking Scenarios Based on Macroscopic Flow Model and Crowding Force Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohong Li

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, accidents always happen in confined space such as metro stations because of congestion. Various researchers investigated the patterns of dense crowd behaviors in different scenarios via simulations or experiments and proposed methods for avoiding accidents. In this study, a classic continuum macroscopic model was applied to simulate the crowded pedestrian flow in typical scenarios such as at bottlenecks or with an obstacle. The Lax–Wendroff finite difference scheme and artificial viscosity filtering method were used to discretize the model to identify high-density risk areas. Furthermore, we introduced a contact crowding force test of the interactions among pedestrians at bottlenecks. Results revealed that in the most dangerous area, the individual on the corner position bears the maximum pressure in such scenarios is 90.2 N, and there is an approximate exponential relationship between crowding force and density indicated by our data. The results and findings presented in this paper can facilitate more reasonable and precise simulation models by utilizing crowding force and crowd density and ensure the safety of pedestrians in high-density scenarios.

  9. Geometric and Colour Data Fusion for Outdoor 3D Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Chacón

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the generation of accurate, dense and coloured 3D models of outdoor scenarios from scanners. This is a challenging research field in which several problems still remain unsolved. In particular, the process of 3D model creation in outdoor scenes may be inefficient if the scene is digitalized under unsuitable technical (specific scanner on-board camera and environmental (rain, dampness, changing illumination conditions. We address our research towards the integration of images and range data to produce photorealistic models. Our proposal is based on decoupling the colour integration and geometry reconstruction stages, making them independent and controlled processes. This issue is approached from two different viewpoints. On the one hand, given a complete model (geometry plus texture, we propose a method to modify the original texture provided by the scanner on-board camera with the colour information extracted from external images taken at given moments and under specific environmental conditions. On the other hand, we propose an algorithm to directly assign external images onto the complete geometric model, thus avoiding tedious on-line calibration processes. We present the work conducted on two large Roman archaeological sites dating from the first century A.D., namely, the Theatre of Segobriga and the Fori Porticus of Emerita Augusta, both in Spain. The results obtained demonstrate that our approach could be useful in the digitalization and 3D modelling fields.

  10. ASSESSMENT AND DECISION MAKING SCENARIO OF CARBON EMISSION IN SUGAR INDUSTRY BASED ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CHAIRUL SALEH

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This research is conducted to assess and create some scenarios in the sugar industry, which aimed to decrease the production of CO2 emissions in PT Madubaru. In this research, the assessment of CO2 emission is based on the energy consumption used in supply chain activities during the production period in 2014. The problem faced in this research is the used of energy for transportation and production in a complex condition. Thus, simulation modeling based on system dynamic has been proposed to build the assessment model and create a scenario. The result shows that PT Madubaru produces around 174,246,500 kg in 171 days or during the production period in 2014. It means that the amount of CO2 emission in a day is around 1,018,985 kg. Two scenarios haves been developeded in order to reduce CO2 emissions. First, changing the old type boiler with the new one by increasing 155% fuel efficiency. This scenario is proven to reduce the amount of CO2 by 44% or become 98,800,400 kg. Second, eliminating the use of lorry which reduce the 0.2% of CO2 emission or equal to 387,600 kg.

  11. Automatic video surveillance of outdoor scenes using track before detect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Morten; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing; Birkemark, Christian M.

    2005-01-01

    This paper concerns automatic video surveillance of outdoor scenes using a single camera. The first step in automatic interpretation of the video stream is activity detection based on background subtraction. Usually, this process will generate a large number of false alarms in outdoor scenes due...

  12. [The effect of a scenario-based simulation communication course on improving the communication skills of nurses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ya-Hsuan; Hsieh, Suh-Ing; Hsu, Li-Ling

    2014-04-01

    Limited disease knowledge is frequently the cause of disease-related anxiety in myocardial infarction patients. The ability to communicate effectively serves multiple purposes in the professional nursing practice. By communicating effectively with myocardial infarction patients, nurses may help reduce their anxiety by keeping them well informed about their disease and teaching them self-care strategies. This research evaluates the communication skills of nurses following scenario-based simulation education in the context of communication with myocardial infarction patients. This study used an experimental design and an educational intervention. The target population comprised nurses of medicine (clinical qualified level N to N2 for nursing) working at a municipal hospital in Taipei City, Taiwan. A total 122 participants were enrolled. Stratified block randomization divided participants into an experimental group and a control group. The experimental group received clinical scenario-based simulation education for communication. The control group received traditional class-based education for communication. Both groups received a pre-test and a Communication Skills Checklist post-test assessment. Results were analyzed using SPSS 17.0 for Windows software. A t-test showed significant increases in communication skills (p skills following the education intervention. The results indicate that clinical scenario-based simulation education for communication is significantly more effective than traditional class-based education in enhancing the ability of nurses to communicate effectively with myocardial infarction patients.

  13. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulhosa, V.M.; Lima, Z.R. de, E-mail: valquiriambrj@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (PPGIEN/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Andrade, E.R. de, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a RDD involving cesium-137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HOTSPOT 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  14. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulhosa, V.M.; Lima, Z.R. de; Andrade, E.R. de

    2017-01-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a RDD involving cesium-137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HOTSPOT 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  15. Supporting primary-level mathematics teachers’ collaboration in designing and using technology-based scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Misfeldt, Morten; Zacho, Lis

    2016-01-01

    development and testing through qualitative means, aiming to describe the teachers’ appropriation of (1) GeoGebra as a tool for doing and teaching mathematics, and (2) game as a metaphor supporting open-ended projects addressing creativity and innovation in the classroom. The data from the project suggest......In this article, we address how the design of educational scenarios can support teachers’ adoption of both technology and open-ended projects indorsing creativity and innovation. We do that by describing how groups of teachers develop digital learning environments supporting using a combination...... of GeoGebra and Google sites. Both teachers and pupils work with the concept of “game” as something they design, and furthermore, the pupils immerse themselves into the scenarios that the teachers create in a way similar to “playing a game.” We investigate teachers participation in collaborative...

  16. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda; Lima, Zelmo R. de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de

    2017-01-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a Radiological Dispersal Devices involving cesium 137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HotSpot 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  17. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda; Lima, Zelmo R. de, E-mail: valquiriambrj@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Andrade, Edson Ramos de, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a Radiological Dispersal Devices involving cesium 137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HotSpot 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  18. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  19. Preparatory Work for a Scenario-Based Electricity Expansion Plan for North Korea after Hypothetical Reunification using WASP-IV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young Joo; Chang, Choong Koo [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    It is noteworthy that North Korean government itself has demanded other parties' cooperation in the field of power sector as the top priority to deal with North Korean own economic issues. In this light, the researcher consider that how to build power capacity in North Korean area after reunification needs to be studied with priority. A scenario-based approach is being adopted, and three scenarios are proposed: Scenario increasing capacity at 2.4% annual rate, Imitating South Korean electricity expansion history, and reaching 80% of South Korean Annual Peak Load in 35 years. In order to carry out the research, WASP-IV (Wien Automation System Planning-IV) code developed by IAEA is, with reasonable assumptions, being executed. Annual Peak Load prediction for each scenario, load duration curve, and existing power generating facilities in North Korea are presented herein. This research is being conducted as a preparatory work for the further study. IAEA's WASP-IV is adopted for a scenario-based electricity expansion plan for North Korea after hypothetical reunification between Koreas. Input data including Annual Peak Load, load duration curve, and existing facilities are built and presented. Additional future research includes inputting candidate plants data, cost data such as construction period, operation and maintenance costs, and fuel costs, as well as decommissioning of aged power plants in North Korea to complete WASP-IV execution. Assuming reunification, electricity expansion plan would need to integrate North and South Koreas demands and facilities. However, this research narrows down its scope to North Korean demand and facilities only. Such integrated simulation could be the topic for the later research. This work was supported by the 2014 Research Fund of the KINGS.

  20. Preparatory Work for a Scenario-Based Electricity Expansion Plan for North Korea after Hypothetical Reunification using WASP-IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Young Joo; Chang, Choong Koo

    2014-01-01

    It is noteworthy that North Korean government itself has demanded other parties' cooperation in the field of power sector as the top priority to deal with North Korean own economic issues. In this light, the researcher consider that how to build power capacity in North Korean area after reunification needs to be studied with priority. A scenario-based approach is being adopted, and three scenarios are proposed: Scenario increasing capacity at 2.4% annual rate, Imitating South Korean electricity expansion history, and reaching 80% of South Korean Annual Peak Load in 35 years. In order to carry out the research, WASP-IV (Wien Automation System Planning-IV) code developed by IAEA is, with reasonable assumptions, being executed. Annual Peak Load prediction for each scenario, load duration curve, and existing power generating facilities in North Korea are presented herein. This research is being conducted as a preparatory work for the further study. IAEA's WASP-IV is adopted for a scenario-based electricity expansion plan for North Korea after hypothetical reunification between Koreas. Input data including Annual Peak Load, load duration curve, and existing facilities are built and presented. Additional future research includes inputting candidate plants data, cost data such as construction period, operation and maintenance costs, and fuel costs, as well as decommissioning of aged power plants in North Korea to complete WASP-IV execution. Assuming reunification, electricity expansion plan would need to integrate North and South Koreas demands and facilities. However, this research narrows down its scope to North Korean demand and facilities only. Such integrated simulation could be the topic for the later research. This work was supported by the 2014 Research Fund of the KINGS

  1. A change navigation-based, scenario planning process within a developing world context from an Afro-centric leadership perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris A. Geldenhuys

    2011-02-01

    Research purpose: This study aimed to investigate how scenario-based planning (a strictly cognitive management tool can be combined with organisational change navigation (a practice addressing the emotionality of change and how this integrated process should be aligned with the prerequisites imposed by a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership perspective in order to make the process more context relevant and aligned. Motivation for the study: The integration of organisational change navigation with conventional scenario based planning, as well as the incorporation of the perquisites of a developing countries and an Afro-centric leadership perspective, will give organisations a more robust, holistic strategic management tool that will add significantly more value within a rapidly, radically and unpredictably changing world. Research design, approach and method: The adopted research approach comprised a combination of the sourcing of the latest thinking in the literature (the ‘theory’ as well as the views of seasoned practitioners of scenario planning (the ‘practice’ through an iterative research process, moving between theory and practice, back to practice and finally returning to theory in order to arrive at a validated expanded and enhanced scenario-based planning process which is both theory and practice ‘proof’. Main findings: A management tool incorporating the change navigation and the unique features of developing countries and Afro-centric leadership was formulated and empirically validated. This management tool is referred to as a change navigation based, scenario planning process (CNBSPP. Practical/managerial implications: CNBSPP is available for use by organisations wishing to apply a strategic planning tool that fits within a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership approach. Contribution/value add: The research makes a unique contribution to the current level of knowledge by integrating two disciplines

  2. Subject related teaching in udeskole (outdoor school)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Karen Seierøe

    Subject related teaching in udeskole In this symposium, subject related teaching on a regular basis in the outdoors, known as udeskole will be described and discussed. Based on recent and ongoing research and development, the education taking the place of teaching into account of the learning...... will identify the necessity of doing research into the field, as 18,4% of all Danish schools is shown to have one or more classes working with udeskole (Barfod et al, 2016). Secondly, the subject related teaching in the outdoors will be exemplified by four research projects. First, the subject ‘Danish...... teaching in the outdoors will be supplemented with recent research upon barriers for using external learning environments ‘the open school’ in Skive Muncipiality. Closing the seminar will be a presentation of the national Danish Network UdeskoleNet and its application. Sources: Barfod, K., Ejbye-Ernst, N...

  3. The role of an exergy-based building stock model for exploration of future decarbonisation scenarios and policy making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    García Kerdan, Iván; Raslan, Rokia; Ruyssevelt, Paul; Morillón Gálvez, David

    2017-01-01

    State-of-the-art research suggests that energy systems are best evaluated using exergy analysis, as exergy represents the real value of an energy source, demonstrating it to be the only rational basis for evaluation. After discovering the lack of thermodynamic integration into stock modelling, this paper presents the development of an exergy-based building stock model. The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to investigate the impact of large-scale future energy retrofit scenarios in the English and Welsh (E&W) non-domestic sector, and secondly, to determine the potential of exergy analysis in improving sectoral efficiency and its potential implications on exergy-oriented policy making. The research explores seven different large-scale future retrofit scenarios that encompass typical, low-carbon, and low-exergy approaches. Modelling results show that by 2050, current regulations have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 49.0±2.9% and increasing sector thermodynamic efficiency from 10.7% to 13.7%. On the other hand, a low-exergy oriented scenario based on renewable electricity and heat pumps is able to reduce carbon emissions by 88.2±2.4%, achieving a sectoral exergy efficiency of 19.8%. This modelling framework can provide energy policy makers with new insights on policy options based on exergy indicators and the assessment of their potential impact. - Highlights: • A bottom-up exergy-based model was developed to analyse the UK non-domestic sector. • Different low-carbon and low-exergy large-scale retrofit scenarios were assessed. • The UK non-domestic sector as a whole has an exergy efficiency of 10.7±4.06%. • Exergy-based retrofits could reduce sectoral carbon emissions by 88±2.4% for 2050. • Exergy oriented policies are required to obtain a sustainable building sector.

  4. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  5. Ecology, Economy and security of supply of the Dutch Electricity Supply System. A scenario based future analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roedel, J.G.

    2008-01-01

    The Dutch electricity sector has been transformed into a liberalized international energy market. Market players are free to choose from various electricity generation options when replacing or expanding production capacity. However, choices that are made now will influence emissions (ecology), integral costs (economy) and availability (security of supply) for the next 25 - 40 years. This thesis shows if and how, based on the current electricity supply system, an optimal balance of ecology, economy and security of supply can be achieved. First, the current electricity supply system is described to create a frame of reference. Then, future technological developments are described for electricity production options. Four potential scenarios are constructed featuring various uncertainties: the globalising versus the local economy; priority versus subordination for the environment; and the security/insecurity of the fuel supply. These four scenarios are worked out with a specially developed techno-economic simulation model; the results are analysed in terms of ecology, economy and security of supply. The findings indicate that it is impossible to arrive at an optimal balance for the defined scenarios. Scenarios with a low environmental impact lead to high integral costs and vice versa. However, by applying a smart combination of various modern generation technologies, CO2 capture and storage, the deployment of biomass and the re-use of residual heat it is possible to reach an optimal balance whereby the additional integral costs can be kept under control compared with the lowest-cost scenarios. To achieve this, clear growth and incentive guidelines need to be established for the various production options. This thesis will form a good starting point for that exercise

  6. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  7. Earthquake Scenario-Based Tsunami Wave Heights in the Eastern Mediterranean and Connected Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necmioglu, Ocal; Özel, Nurcan Meral

    2015-12-01

    We identified a set of tsunami scenario input parameters in a 0.5° × 0.5° uniformly gridded area in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean (both for shallow- and intermediate-depth earthquakes) and Black Seas (only shallow earthquakes) and calculated tsunami scenarios using the SWAN-Joint Research Centre (SWAN-JRC) code ( Mader 2004; Annunziato 2007) with 2-arcmin resolution bathymetry data for the range of 6.5—Mwmax with an Mw increment of 0.1 at each grid in order to realize a comprehensive analysis of tsunami wave heights from earthquakes originating in the region. We defined characteristic earthquake source parameters from a compiled set of sources such as existing moment tensor catalogues and various reference studies, together with the Mwmax assigned in the literature, where possible. Results from 2,415 scenarios show that in the Eastern Mediterranean and its connected seas (Aegean and Black Sea), shallow earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6.5 may result in coastal wave heights of 0.5 m, whereas the same wave height would be expected only from intermediate-depth earthquakes with Mw ≥ 7.0 . The distribution of maximum wave heights calculated indicate that tsunami wave heights up to 1 m could be expected in the northern Aegean, whereas in the Black Sea, Cyprus, Levantine coasts, northern Libya, eastern Sicily, southern Italy, and western Greece, up to 3-m wave height could be possible. Crete, the southern Aegean, and the area between northeast Libya and Alexandria (Egypt) is prone to maximum tsunami wave heights of >3 m. Considering that calculations are performed at a minimum bathymetry depth of 20 m, these wave heights may, according to Green's Law, be amplified by a factor of 2 at the coastline. The study can provide a basis for detailed tsunami hazard studies in the region.

  8. Global cost analysis on adaptation to sea level rise based on RCP/SSP scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumano, N.; Tamura, M.; Yotsukuri, M.; Kuwahara, Y.; Yokoki, H.

    2017-12-01

    Low-lying areas are the most vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change in the future. In order to adapt to SLR, it is necessary to decide whether to retreat from vulnerable areas or to install dykes to protect them from inundation. Therefore, cost- analysis of adaptation using coastal dykes is one of the most essential issues in the context of climate change and its countermeasures. However, few studies have globally evaluated the future costs of adaptation in coastal areas. This study tries to globally analyze the cost of adaptation in coastal areas. First, global distributions of projected inundation impacts induced by SLR including astronomical high tide were assessed. Economic damage was estimated on the basis of the econometric relationship between past hydrological disasters, affected population, and per capita GDP using CRED's EM-DAT database. Second, the cost of adaptation was also determined using the cost database and future scenarios. The authors have built a cost database for installed coastal dykes worldwide and applied it to estimating the future cost of adaptation. The unit costs of dyke construction will increase with socio-economic scenario (SSP) such as per capita GDP. Length of vulnerable coastline is calculated by identifying inundation areas using ETOPO1. Future cost was obtained by multiplying the length of vulnerable coastline and the unit cost of dyke construction. Third, the effectiveness of dyke construction was estimated by comparing cases with and without adaptation.As a result, it was found that incremental adaptation cost is lower than economic damage in the cases of SSP1 and SSP3 under RCP scenario, while the cost of adaptation depends on the durability of the coastal dykes.

  9. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  10. Blind estimation of the number of speech source in reverberant multisource scenarios based on binaural signals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    May, Tobias; van de Par, Steven

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a new approach for estimating the number of active speech sources in the presence of interfering noise sources and reverberation. First, a binaural front-end is used to detect the spatial positions of all active sound sources, resulting in a binary mask for each candidate...... on a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. A systematic analysis shows that the proposed algorithm is able to blindly determine the number and the corresponding spatial positions of speech sources in multisource scenarios and generalizes well to unknown acoustic conditions...

  11. Decision support systems in nuclear emergencies: A scenario-based comparison of domestic and reference tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vamanu, D.; Slavnicu, S. D.; Slavnicu, E.; Vamanu, B.

    2004-01-01

    The article reports selective results of a comparison between RODOS - an emerging decision support system for the management of nuclear emergencies in Europe developed by an international research consortium under EEC aegis, and a resident software package developed and maintained for similar purposes at IFIN-HH, Bucharest. Reproducible similarity patterns obtained in the output data distributions provide for simple normalising procedures that may ensure convergent radiological assessments. When properly consolidated on a sufficient scenario casuistry, such procedures could lend a certain resilience to domestic decision support tools over the interim lead time required by the full implementation of RODOS, or other major league, internationally accepted reference systems. (authors)

  12. Indoor versus outdoor time in preschoolers at child care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tandon, Pooja S; Saelens, Brian E; Zhou, Chuan; Kerr, Jacqueline; Christakis, Dimitri A

    2013-01-01

    Being outdoors may have health benefits including being more physically active. Understanding the relationship between outdoor time and health is hampered by the difficulty of measuring outdoor time. To examine the accuracy and validity of light-sensor and GPS methods for quantifying outdoor time among those aged 3-5 years at child care. A total of 45 children (mean age 4.5 years, 64% boys) from five child care centers wore portable accelerometers with built-in light sensors and a separate GPS device around their waists during child care, providing 80,648 episodes (15 seconds each) for analysis. Direct observation (gold standard) of children being outdoors versus indoors was conducted for 2 days at each center. GPS signal-to-noise ratios, processed through the Personal Activity and Location Measurement System were used to define indoor versus outdoor locations. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were used to determine thresholds for defining being indoors versus outdoors. Data were collected in Fall 2011, analyzed in 2012. Mean observed outdoor time was 63 [±44; range: 18-152] minutes/day. Mean light-sensor levels were significantly higher outdoors. The area under the ROC curve for location based on light sensor for all weather conditions was 0.82 (range: 0.70 on partly cloudy days to 0.97 on sunny days); for GPS, it was 0.89. The light sensor had a sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 86%. GPS had a sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 88%. A light sensor and a GPS device both distinguish indoor from outdoor time for preschoolers with moderate to high levels of accuracy. These devices can increase the feasibility and lower the cost of measuring outdoor time in studies of preschool children. Copyright © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  14. Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; LAE

    1995-01-01

    An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

  15. A Case-Based Scenario with Interdisciplinary Guided-Inquiry in Chemistry and Biology: Experiences of First Year Forensic Science Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cresswell, Sarah L.; Loughlin, Wendy A.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, insight into forensic science students' experiences of a case-based scenario with an interdisciplinary guided-inquiry experience in chemistry and biology is presented. Evaluation of student experiences and interest showed that the students were engaged with all aspects of the case-based scenario, including the curriculum theory…

  16. Hybrid Map-Based Navigation Method for Unmanned Ground Vehicle in Urban Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiyan Chen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available To reduce the data size of metric map and map matching computational cost in unmanned ground vehicle self-driving navigation in urban scenarios, a metric-topological hybrid map navigation system is proposed in this paper. According to the different positioning accuracy requirements, urban areas are divided into strong constraint (SC areas, such as roads with lanes, and loose constraint (LC areas, such as intersections and open areas. As direction of the self-driving vehicle is provided by traffic lanes and global waypoints in the road network, a simple topological map is fit for the navigation in the SC areas. While in the LC areas, the navigation of the self-driving vehicle mainly relies on the positioning information. Simultaneous localization and mapping technology is used to provide a detailed metric map in the LC areas, and a window constraint Markov localization algorithm is introduced to achieve accurate position using laser scanner. Furthermore, the real-time performance of the Markov algorithm is enhanced by using a constraint window to restrict the size of the state space. By registering the metric maps into the road network, a hybrid map of the urban scenario can be constructed. Real unmanned vehicle mapping and navigation tests demonstrated the capabilities of the proposed method.

  17. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  18. [New paradigm for soil and water conservation: a method based on watershed process modeling and scenario analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, La-Jiao; Qin, Cheng-Zhi; Wang, Ping; Liu, Jun-Zhi; Li, Run-Kui; Cai, Qiang-Guo

    2012-07-01

    With the increase of severe soil erosion problem, soil and water conservation has become an urgent concern for sustainable development. Small watershed experimental observation is the traditional paradigm for soil and water control. However, the establishment of experimental watershed usually takes long time, and has the limitations of poor repeatability and high cost. Moreover, the popularization of the results from the experimental watershed is limited for other areas due to the differences in watershed conditions. Therefore, it is not sufficient to completely rely on this old paradigm for soil and water loss control. Recently, scenario analysis based on watershed modeling has been introduced into watershed management, which can provide information about the effectiveness of different management practices based on the quantitative simulation of watershed processes. Because of its merits such as low cost, short period, and high repeatability, scenario analysis shows great potential in aiding the development of watershed management strategy. This paper elaborated a new paradigm using watershed modeling and scenario analysis for soil and water conservation, illustrated this new paradigm through two cases for practical watershed management, and explored the future development of this new soil and water conservation paradigm.

  19. A methodology for scenario development based on understanding of long-term evolution of geological disposal systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Ebashi, Takeshi; Ueda, Hiroyoshi; Koyama, Toshihiro; Shiratsuchi, Hiroshi; Yashio, Shoko; Kawamura, Hideki

    2012-01-01

    We have developed a 'hybrid' scenario development method by combining bottom-up and top-down approaches and applied for the case of geological disposal of high-level waste. This approach provides a top-down perspective, by introducing a concept of safety functions for different periods and 'storyboards', which depict repository evolution with time on a range of spatial scales, and a bottom-up perspective, by identifying relationship between processes related to radionuclide migration and safety functions based on feature, event and process (FEP) management. Based on a trial study, we have specified work descriptions for each step of the hybrid scenario development methodology and confirmed that the storyboard provides a baseline and holistic overview for the FEP management and a common platform to involve close interaction with experts in various disciplines to understand the crossover phenomenological processes. We also confirmed that there is no conflict between the top-down approach and the bottom-up approach and the hybrid scenario development work frame fulfils the specified requirements for traceability, comprehensiveness, ease of understanding, integration of multidisciplinary knowledge and applicability to a staged approach to siting. (author)

  20. Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjin Tian

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents' behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model (ABM with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

  1. Increasing Plant Based Foods or Dairy Foods Differentially Affects Nutrient Intakes: Dietary Scenarios Using NHANES 2007–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher J. Cifelli

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Diets rich in plant foods and lower in animal-based products have garnered increased attention among researchers, dietitians and health professionals in recent years for their potential to, not only improve health, but also to lessen the environmental impact. However, the potential effects of increasing plant-based foods at the expense of animal-based foods on macro- and micronutrient nutrient adequacy in the U.S. diet is unknown. In addition, dairy foods are consistently under consumed, thus the impact of increased dairy on nutrient adequacy is important to measure. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to use national survey data to model three different dietary scenarios to assess the effects of increasing plant-based foods or dairy foods on macronutrient intake and nutrient adequacy. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2007–2010 for persons two years and older (n = 17,387 were used in all the analyses. Comparisons were made of usual intake of macronutrients and shortfall nutrients of three dietary scenarios that increased intakes by 100%: (i plant-based foods; (ii protein-rich plant-based foods (i.e., legumes, nuts, seeds, soy; and (iii milk, cheese and yogurt. Scenarios (i and (ii had commensurate reductions in animal product intake. In both children (2–18 years and adults (≥19 years, the percent not meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR decreased for vitamin C, magnesium, vitamin E, folate and iron when plant-based foods were increased. However the percent not meeting the EAR increased for calcium, protein, vitamin A, and vitamin D in this scenario. Doubling protein-rich plant-based foods had no effect on nutrient intake because they were consumed in very low quantities in the baseline diet. The dairy model reduced the percent not meeting the EAR for calcium, vitamin A, vitamin D, magnesium, and protein, while sodium and saturated fat levels increased. Our modeling shows that

  2. Indoor and Outdoor Allergies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Madhavi; Hays, Amy

    2016-09-01

    In last 30 to 40 years there has been a significant increase in the incidence of allergy. This increase cannot be explained by genetic factors alone. Increasing air pollution and its interaction with biological allergens along with changing lifestyles are contributing factors. Dust mites, molds, and animal allergens contribute to most of the sensitization in the indoor setting. Tree and grass pollens are the leading allergens in the outdoor setting. Worsening air pollution and increasing particulate matter worsen allergy symptoms and associated morbidity. Cross-sensitization of allergens is common. Treatment involves avoidance of allergens, modifying lifestyle, medical treatment, and immunotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Constraining the Deforestation History of Europe: Evaluation of Historical Land Use Scenarios with Pollen-Based Land Cover Reconstructions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jed O. Kaplan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC is the most important transformation of the Earth system that occurred in the preindustrial Holocene, with implications for carbon, water and sediment cycles, biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services and regional and global climate. For example, anthropogenic deforestation in preindustrial Eurasia may have led to feedbacks to the climate system: both biogeophysical, regionally amplifying winter cold and summer warm temperatures, and biogeochemical, stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and thus influencing global climate. Quantification of these effects is difficult, however, because scenarios of anthropogenic land cover change over the Holocene vary widely, with increasing disagreement back in time. Because land cover change had such widespread ramifications for the Earth system, it is essential to assess current ALCC scenarios in light of observations and provide guidance on which models are most realistic. Here, we perform a systematic evaluation of two widely-used ALCC scenarios (KK10 and HYDE3.1 in northern and part of central Europe using an independent, pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land cover (REVEALS. Considering that ALCC in Europe primarily resulted in deforestation, we compare modeled land use with the cover of non-forest vegetation inferred from the pollen data. Though neither land cover change scenario matches the pollen-based reconstructions precisely, KK10 correlates well with REVEALS at the country scale, while HYDE systematically underestimates land use with increasing magnitude with time in the past. Discrepancies between modeled and reconstructed land use are caused by a number of factors, including assumptions of per-capita land use and socio-cultural factors that cannot be predicted on the basis of the characteristics of the physical environment, including dietary preferences, long-distance trade, the location of urban areas and social organization.

  4. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  5. Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israelyan Musheg

    2002-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia. Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188 than before (85–129.5. In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery. Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review.

  6. Measurement-based Channel Characterization for 5G Wireless Communications on Campus Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mi, Yang; He, Ruisi; Ai, Bo

    2017-01-01

    The fifth generation (5G) communication has been a hotspot of research in recent years, and both research institutions and industrial enterprises put a lot of interests for 5G communication at some new frequency bands. In this paper, we investigate the radio channels of 5G communications below 6...... GHz according to the requirements and scenarios of 5G communication. Channel measurements were conducted on campus of Beijing Jiaotong University, China at two key optional frequency bands below 6 GHz. By using the measured data, we analyzed key channel parameters at 460MHz and 3.5GHz, such as power...... delay profile, path loss exponent, shadow fading, and delay spread. The results are helpful for the 5G communication system design....

  7. Development of damage control training scenarios of naval ships based on simplified vulnerability analysis results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Ki Park

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Given the growing interest in damage control training for the naval ships and their organizations, expectations for a new concept of training program have also increased. The existing training programs and its concept focus on training crew to be more proficient and skilled so that they can respond better to damage situations, i.e., fires and flooding. This paper suggests a development procedure of damage control training scenarios using the survivability analysis results as a new concept of damage control training programs employing advanced systems such as damage control console, automation system, and kill cards. This approach could help the decision maker not only enhance his or her capability but also improve the reacting capability of crew members for complex situations induced by a weapon hit.

  8. Characteristics of outdoor falls among older people: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyman, Samuel R; Ballinger, Claire; Phillips, Judith E; Newton, Rita

    2013-11-18

    Falls are a major threat to older people's health and wellbeing. Approximately half of falls occur in outdoor environments but little is known about the circumstances in which they occur. We conducted a qualitative study to explore older people's experiences of outdoor falls to develop understanding of how they may be prevented. We conducted nine focus groups across the UK (England, Wales, and Scotland). Our sample was from urban and rural settings and different environmental landscapes. Participants were aged 65+ and had at least one outdoor fall in the past year. We analysed the data using framework and content analyses. Forty-four adults aged 65 - 92 took part and reported their experience of 88 outdoor falls. Outdoor falls occurred in a variety of contexts, though reports suggested the following scenarios may have been more frequent: when crossing a road, in a familiar area, when bystanders were around, and with an unreported or unknown attribution. Most frequently, falls resulted in either minor or moderate injury, feeling embarrassed at the time of the fall, and anxiety about falling again. Ten falls resulted in fracture, but no strong pattern emerged in regard to the contexts of these falls. Anxiety about falling again appeared more prevalent among those that fell in urban settings and who made more visits into their neighbourhood in a typical week. This exploratory study has highlighted several aspects of the outdoor environment that may represent risk factors for outdoor falls and associated fear of falling. Health professionals are recommended to consider outdoor environments as well as the home setting when working to prevent falls and increase mobility among older people.

  9. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  10. Preventive health services implemented by family physicians in Portugal—a cross-sectional study based on two clinical scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Carlos; Azevedo, Luís Filipe; Santos, Cristina; Sá, Luísa; Santos, Paulo; Couto, Maria; Pereira, Altamiro; Hespanhol, Alberto

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To assess whether Portuguese family physicians perform preventive health services in accordance with scientific evidence, based on the recommendations of the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF). Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Primary healthcare, Portuguese National Health Service. Participants 255 Portuguese family physicians selected by a stratified cluster sampling design were invited to participate in a computer-assisted telephone survey. Outcomes Prevalence of compliance with USPSTF recommendations for screening, given a male and female clinical scenario and a set of proposed medical interventions, including frequency of the intervention and performance in their own daily practice. Results A response rate of 95.7% was obtained (n=244). 98–100% of family physicians answered according to the USPSTF recommendations in most interventions. In the male scenario, the lowest concordance was observed in the evaluation of prostate-specific antigen with 37% of family physicians answering according to the USPSTF recommendations. In the female scenario, the lowest concordance was for cholesterol testing with 2% of family physicians complying. Family physicians younger than 50 years had significantly better compliance scores than older ones (mean 77% vs 72%; p<0.001). Conclusions We found a high degree of agreement with USPSTF recommendations among Portuguese family physicians. However, we also found results suggesting excessive use of some medical interventions, raising concerns related to possible harm associated with overdiagnosis and overtreatment. PMID:24861550

  11. Environmental implications of large-scale adoption of wind power: a scenario-based life cycle assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvesen, Anders; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the potential environmental impacts of a large-scale adoption of wind power to meet up to 22% of the world’s growing electricity demand. The analysis builds on life cycle assessments of generic onshore and offshore wind farms, meant to represent average conditions for global deployment of wind power. We scale unit-based findings to estimate aggregated emissions of building, operating and decommissioning wind farms toward 2050, taking into account changes in the electricity mix in manufacturing. The energy scenarios investigated are the International Energy Agency’s BLUE scenarios. We estimate 1.7–2.6 Gt CO 2 -eq climate change, 2.1–3.2 Mt N-eq marine eutrophication, 9.2–14 Mt NMVOC photochemical oxidant formation, and 9.5–15 Mt SO 2 -eq terrestrial acidification impact category indicators due to global wind power in 2007–50. Assuming lifetimes 5 yr longer than reference, the total climate change indicator values are reduced by 8%. In the BLUE Map scenario, construction of new capacity contributes 64%, and repowering of existing capacity 38%, to total cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The total emissions of wind electricity range between 4% and 14% of the direct emissions of the replaced fossil-fueled power plants. For all impact categories, the indirect emissions of displaced fossil power are larger than the total emissions caused by wind power.

  12. Using Mind Maps to Make Student Questioning Effective: Learning Outcomes of a Principle-Based Scenario for Teacher Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokhof, Harry; de Vries, Bregje; Bastiaens, Theo; Martens, Rob

    2018-01-01

    Student questioning is an important learning strategy, but rare in many classrooms, because teachers have concerns if these questions contribute to attaining curricular objectives. Teachers face the challenge of making student questioning effective for learning the curriculum. To address this challenge, a principle-based scenario for guiding effective student questioning was developed and tested for its relevance and practicality in two previous studies. In the scenario, which consists of a sequence of pedagogical activities, mind maps support teachers and students to explore and elaborate upon a core curriculum, by raising, investigating, and exchanging student questions. In this paper, a follow-up study is presented that tested the effectiveness of the scenario on student outcomes in terms of attainment of curricular objectives. Ten teachers and their 231 students participated in the study. Pre- and posttest mind maps were used to measure individual and collective learning outcomes of student questioning. Findings show that a majority of students progressed in learning the core curriculum and elaborated upon it. The findings suggest that visualizing knowledge construction in a shared mind map supports students to learn a core curriculum and to refine their knowledge structures.

  13. Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

    2014-01-01

    The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

  14. A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kikuchi, Yasunori; Kimura, Seiichiro; Okamoto, Yoshitaka; Koyama, Michihisa

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy flow model was represented as the functionals of technology options. • Relationships among available technologies can be visualized by developed model. • Technology roadmapping can be incorporated into the model as technical scenario. • Combination of technologies can increase their contribution to the environment. - Abstract: The design of energy systems has become an issue all over the world. A single optimal system cannot be suggested because the availability of infrastructure and resources and the acceptability of the system should be discussed locally, involving all related stakeholders in the energy system. In particular, researchers and engineers of technologies related to energy systems should be able to perform the forecasting and roadmapping of future energy systems and indicate quantitative results of scenario analyses. We report an energy flow model developed for analysing scenarios of future Japanese energy systems implementing a variety of feasible technology options. The model was modularized and represented as functionals of appropriate technology options, which enables the aggregation and disaggregation of energy systems by defining functionals for single technologies, packages integrating multi-technologies, and mini-systems such as regions implementing industrial symbiosis. Based on the model, the combinations of technologies on both energy supply and demand sides can be addressed considering not only the societal scenarios such as resource prices, economic growth and population change but also the technical scenarios including the development and penetration of energy-related technologies such as distributed solid oxide fuel cells in residential sectors and new-generation vehicles, and the replacement and shift of current technologies such as heat pumps for air conditioning and centralized power generation. The developed model consists of two main modules; namely, a power generation dispatching module for the

  15. Modelling and simulation of concrete leaching under outdoor exposure conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schiopu, Nicoleta; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Jayr, Emmanuel; Mehu, Jacques; Moszkowicz, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    Recently, a demand regarding the assessment of release of dangerous substances from construction products was raised by European Commission which has issued the Mandate M/366 addressed to CEN. This action is in relation with the Essential Requirement No. 3 'Hygiene, Health and Environment' of the Construction Products Directive (89/106/EC). The potential hazard for environment and health may arise in different life cycle stages of a construction product. During the service life stage, the release of substances due to contact with the rain water is the main potential hazard source, as a consequence of the leaching phenomenon. The objective of this paper is to present the development of a coupled chemical-transport model for the case of a concrete based construction product, i.e. concrete paving slabs, exposed to rain water under outdoor exposure conditions. The development of the model is based on an iterative process of comparing the experimental results with the simulated results up to an acceptable fit. The experiments were conducted at laboratory scale (equilibrium and dynamic leaching tests) and field scale. The product was exposed for one year in two types of leaching scenarios under outdoor conditions, 'runoff' and 'stagnation', and the element release was monitored. The model was calibrated using the experimental data obtained at laboratory scale and validated against measured field data, by taking into account the specific rain water balance and the atmospheric CO 2 uptake as input parameters. The numerical tool used in order to model and simulate the leaching behaviour was PHREEQC, coupled with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) thermodynamic data base. The simulation results are satisfying and the paper demonstrates the feasibility of the modelling approach for the leaching behaviour assessment of concrete type construction materials

  16. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  17. Group Cooperation in Outdoor Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Bruce E.

    1978-01-01

    Utilizing the Beatles' Yellow Submarine fantasy (e.g., the Blue Meanies), this outdoor education program is designed for sixth graders and special education students. Activities developed at the Cortland Resident Outdoor Education Camp include a series of group stress/challenge activities to be accomplished by everyone in the group, as a group.…

  18. Outdoor Education: Definition and Philosophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Phyllis

    Because outdoor education programs occur in every geographic location, are sponsored by all levels of educational institutions, state and local government agencies, and private entrepreneurs, and have no nationally standardized curriculum or measures of competency or knowledge, outdoor education may best be defines as "education in, about, and for…

  19. ICUD-0530 Scenario based risk assessment of the dispersion of E-coli from combined sewer overflow to a fresh-water lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk

    2017-01-01

    A scenario based risk assessment method is used to evaluate how combined sewer overflow (CSO) affects a nearby bathing beach in Skanderborg, Denmark. The method combines an urban drainage model with a 3D CFD model to pre-simulate 60 different scenarios, used for assessing the risk of poor bathing...

  20. Shale gas technology innovation rate impact on economic Base Case – Scenario model benchmarks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weijermars, Ruud

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Cash flow models control which technology is affordable in emerging shale gas plays. • Impact of technology innovation on IRR can be as important as wellhead price hikes. • Cash flow models are useful for technology decisions that make shale gas plays economic. • The economic gap can be closed by appropriate technology innovation. - Abstract: Low gas wellhead prices in North America have put its shale gas industry under high competitive pressure. Rapid technology innovation can help companies to improve the economic performance of shale gas fields. Cash flow models are paramount for setting effective production and technology innovation targets to achieve positive returns on investment in all global shale gas plays. Future cash flow of a well (or cluster of wells) may either improve further or deteriorate, depending on: (1) the regional volatility in gas prices at the wellhead – which must pay for the gas resource extraction, and (2) the cost and effectiveness of the well technology used. Gas price is an externality and cannot be controlled by individual companies, but well technology cost can be reduced while improving production output. We assume two plausible scenarios for well technology innovation and model the return on investment while checking against sensitivity to gas price volatility. It appears well technology innovation – if paced fast enough – can fully redeem the negative impact of gas price decline on shale well profits, and the required rates are quantified in our sensitivity analysis

  1. Experimental hydrate formation and gas production scenarios based on CO{sub 2} sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stevens, J.C.; Howard, J.J. [ConocoPhillips, Bartlesville, OK (United States). Reservoir Laboratories; Baldwin, B.A. [Green Country Petrophysics LLC, Dewey, OK (United States); Ersland, G.; Husebo, J.; Graue, A. [Bergen Univ., Bergen (Norway). Dept. of Physics and Technology

    2008-07-01

    Gas hydrate production strategies have focused on depressurization or thermal stimulation of the reservoir, which in turn leads to hydrate dissociation. In order to evaluate potential production scenarios, the recovery efficiency of the natural gas from hydrate must be known along with the corresponding amounts of produced water. This study focused on the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) with the natural gas hydrate and the subsequent release of free methane (CH{sub 4}). Laboratory experiments that investigated the rates and mechanisms of hydrate formation in coarse-grained porous media have shown the significance of initial water saturation and salinity on forming methane hydrates. Many of the experiments were performed in a sample holder fitted with an MRI instrument for monitoring hydrate formation. Hydrate-saturated samples were subjected to different procedures to release methane. The rates and efficiency of the exchange process were reproducible over a series of initial conditions. The exchange process was rapid and efficient in that no free water was observed in the core with MRI measurements. Injection of CO{sub 2} into the whole-core hydrate-saturated pore system resulted in methane production at the outlet end. Permeability measurements on these hydrate saturated cores during hydrate formation decreased to low values, but enough for gas transport. The lower permeability values remained constant during the methane-carbon dioxide exchange process in the hydrate structure. 12 refs., 9 figs.

  2. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hwang In Hyuck

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is be¬cause the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manu¬ally by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was su¬ggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  3. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    In Hyuck Hwang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is because the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manually by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was suggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  4. Scenario-Based Assessment of User Needs for Point-of-Care Robots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyeong Suk; Kim, Jeongeun

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to derive specific user requirements and barriers in a real medical environment to define the essential elements and functions of two types of point-of-care (POC) robot: a telepresence robot as a tool for teleconsultation, and a bedside robot to provide emotional care for patients. An analysis of user requirements was conducted; user needs were gathered and identified, and detailed, realistic scenarios were created. The prototype robots were demonstrated in physical environments for envisioning and evaluation. In all, three nurses and three clinicians participated as evaluators to observe the demonstrations and evaluate the robot systems. The evaluators were given a brief explanation of each scene and the robots' functionality. Four major functions of the teleconsultation robot were defined and tested in the demonstration. In addition, four major functions of the bedside robot were evaluated. Among the desired functions for a teleconsultation robot, medical information delivery and communication had high priority. For a bedside robot, patient support, patient monitoring, and healthcare provider support were the desired functions. The evaluators reported that the teleconsultation robot can increase support from and access to specialists and resources. They mentioned that the bedside robot can improve the quality of hospital life. Problems identified in the demonstration were those of space conflict, communication errors, and safety issues. Incorporating this technology into healthcare services will enhance communication and teamwork skills across distances and thereby facilitate teamwork. However, repeated tests will be needed to evaluate and ensure improved performance.

  5. Enhancing community capacity to support physical activity: the development of a community-based indoor-outdoor walking program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley-Jacome, Mary; Gallant, Mary P; Fisher, Brian D; Gotcsik, Frances S; Strogatz, David S

    2010-04-01

    The University at Albany Prevention Research Center, guided by a needs assessment in two underserved communities (one urban, one rural), initiated a pilot project that opened a public school for community walking in a rural setting. This study examined a 9-week program for potential barriers, benefits, influential factors, and the physical activity levels of program participants. Evaluation was based on daily logs, pedometer diaries, participant surveys, and focus groups. Results indicated that rural schools provide a useful resource for residents and increase participants' physical activity levels. A more comprehensive rural community walking program has been implemented as a result of these findings.

  6. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Oteros-Rozas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Participatory scenario planning (PSP is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1 the context; (2 the original motivations and objectives; (3 the methodological approach; (4 the process; (5 the content of the scenarios; (6 the outputs of the research; and (7 the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges.

  7. Outdoor schools: Limits and dilemmas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena Smetáčková

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Outdoor school is a stable element of Czech educational system. However,many changes have occurred during the last twenty years in the purposes of outdoorschools and in their organization. The article presents various school statistics andresults of research which included questionnaire survey in elementary schools in Pragueand a case study of two classes. The study found that the outdoor school programmesare getting shorter, budgets for outdoor schools are reduced, and prices of outdoorschool programmes for parents are increasing. Because of high prices, almost 20 % ofpupils cannot attend outdoor schools. Nevertheless, according to teachers, pupils andparents, the main purpose of outdoor school programmes is to create a better socialclimate in peer groups. Because of high rates of absence, this goal is partly invalid.Another purpose should be that teachers and children get to know each other better.This goal is invalid as well because many schools hire commercial agencies which limitsthe time that pupils and teachers spend together.

  8. Teaching Scenario-Based Planning for Sustainable Landscape Development: An Evaluation of Learning Effects in the Cagliari Studio Workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Albert

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the contributions of an intensive educational workshop to advance students’ understanding and skills for collaborative, scenario-based landscape planning. The research design involves a case study workshop with thirty international students and several regional experts as well as a multi-stage, in-process evaluation. The workshop resulted in six different alternative futures for the region of Cagliari, Italy, and a seventh combined version that was considered best by regional reviewers. The students’ learning evaluation showed substantial advances in their relevant understanding and skills. Key aspects of the workshop pedagogy and the evaluation are discussed, and recommendations for future applications presented.

  9. Start-up scenario of compact tori based on REB-injection developed in SPAC-group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikuta, K.

    1981-01-01

    Quasi-static start-up of compact tori without toroidal field coil is reviewed thoroughly in a proposal of the S-1 spheromak. During the formation phase we should note that the rapid heat loss from the plasma will give a bad effect for the generation of the confinement configuration. In the case of fast start-up of the configuration plasma can safely pass over the dangerous state of the instability toward the desirable stable state with a bonus of producing hot plasma. By this reason it is intended to discuss a fast start-up scenario of the compact tori based on REB injection developed in SPAC group

  10. Study of the triton-burnup process in different JET scenarios using neutron monitor based on CVD diamond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemtsev, G., E-mail: g.nemtsev@iterrf.ru; Amosov, V.; Meshchaninov, S.; Rodionov, R. [Institution “Project center ITER,” Moscow (Russian Federation); Popovichev, S. [CCFE, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Collaboration: EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)

    2016-11-15

    We present the results of analysis of triton burn-up process using the data from diamond detector. Neutron monitor based on CVD diamond was installed in JET torus hall close to the plasma center. We measure the part of 14 MeV neutrons in scenarios where plasma current varies in a range of 1-3 MA. In this experiment diamond neutron monitor was also able to detect strong gamma bursts produced by runaway electrons arising during the disruptions. We can conclude that CVD diamond detector will contribute to the study of fast particles confinement and help predict the disruption events in future tokamaks.

  11. Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symstad, Amy J.; Miller, Brian W.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

    2017-12-18

    Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention.In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or

  12. A Cloud Robotics Based Service for Managing RPAS in Emergency, Rescue and Hazardous Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvagni, Mario; Chiaberge, Marcello; Sanguedolce, Claudio; Dara, Gianluca

    2016-04-01

    Cloud robotics and cloud services are revolutionizing not only the ICT world but also the robotics industry, giving robots more computing capabilities, storage and connection bandwidth while opening new scenarios that blend the physical to the digital world. In this vision, new IT architectures are required to manage robots, retrieve data from them and create services to interact with users. Among all the robots this work is mainly focused on flying robots, better known as drones, UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) or RPAS (Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems). The cloud robotics approach shifts the concept of having a single local "intelligence" for every single UAV, as a unique device that carries out onboard all the computation and storage processes, to a more powerful "centralized brain" located in the cloud. This breakthrough opens new scenarios where UAVs are agents, relying on remote servers for most of their computational load and data storage, creating a network of devices where they can share knowledge and information. Many applications, using UAVs, are growing as interesting and suitable devices for environment monitoring. Many services can be build fetching data from UAVs, such as telemetry, video streaming, pictures or sensors data; once. These services, part of the IT architecture, can be accessed via web by other devices or shared with other UAVs. As test cases of the proposed architecture, two examples are reported. In the first one a search and rescue or emergency management, where UAVs are required for monitoring intervention, is shown. In case of emergency or aggression, the user requests the emergency service from the IT architecture, providing GPS coordinates and an identification number. The IT architecture uses a UAV (choosing among the available one according to distance, service status, etc.) to reach him/her for monitoring and support operations. In the meantime, an officer will use the service to see the current position of the UAV, its

  13. Investigating Impacts of Alternative Crop Market Scenarios on Land Use Change with an Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deng Ding

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We developed an agent-based model (ABM to simulate farmers’ decisions on crop type and fertilizer application in response to commodity and biofuel crop prices. Farm profit maximization constrained by farmers’ profit expectations for land committed to biofuel crop production was used as the decision rule. Empirical parameters characterizing farmers’ profit expectations were derived from an agricultural landowners and operators survey and integrated in the ABM. The integration of crop production cost models and the survey information in the ABM is critical to producing simulations that can provide realistic insights into agricultural land use planning and policy making. Model simulations were run with historical market prices and alternative market scenarios for corn price, soybean to corn price ratio, switchgrass price, and switchgrass to corn stover ratio. The results of the comparison between simulated cropland percentage and crop rotations with satellite-based land cover data suggest that farmers may be underestimating the effects that continuous corn production has on yields. The simulation results for alternative market scenarios based on a survey of agricultural land owners and operators in the Clear Creek Watershed in eastern Iowa show that farmers see cellulosic biofuel feedstock production in the form of perennial grasses or corn stover as a more risky enterprise than their current crop production systems, likely because of market and production risks and lock in effects. As a result farmers do not follow a simple farm-profit maximization rule.

  14. Feasibility of increasing childhood outdoor play and decreasing television viewing through a family-based intervention in WIC, New York State, 2007-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davison, Kirsten K; Edmunds, Lynn S; Wyker, Brett A; Young, Laurie M; Sarfoh, Vanessa S; Sekhobo, Jackson P

    2011-05-01

    Active Families is a program developed to increase outdoor play and decrease television viewing among preschool-aged children enrolled in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). Our objective was to assess its feasibility and efficacy. We implemented Active Families in a large WIC clinic in New York State for 1 year. To this end, we incorporated into WIC nutrition counseling sessions a community resource guide with maps showing recreational venues. Outcome measures were children's television viewing and time playing outdoors and parents' behaviors (television viewing, physical activity), self-efficacy to influence children's behaviors, and parenting practices specific to television viewing. We used a nonpaired pretest and posttest design to evaluate the intervention, drawing on comparison data from 3 matched WIC agencies. Compared with the children at baseline, the children at follow-up were more likely to watch television less than 2 hours per day and play outdoors for at least 60 minutes per day. Additionally, parents reported higher self-efficacy to limit children's television viewing and were more likely to meet physical activity recommendations and watch television less than 2 hours per day. Results suggest that it is feasible to foster increased outdoor play and reduced television viewing among WIC-enrolled children by incorporating a community resource guide into WIC nutrition counseling sessions. Future research should test the intervention with a stronger evaluation design in multiple settings, with more diverse WIC populations, and by using more objective outcome measures of child behaviors.

  15. Land-use scenarios for Finnish cut-over peatlands – based on the mineral subsoil characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Päivi T. Picken

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Finland, peat harvesting sites are exploited down almost to the mineral soil and the properties of mineral subsoil have considerable influence on the suitability of the various after-use forms. Chemical and physical features of the mineral subsoil must be studied whenafter-use is planned, to ensure no harmful effects follow. Research on mineral subsoils was carried out on Finnish peat production sites in 1997–1998 and 9800 hectares of peat production areas slowly getting exhausted were studied. The cutover area clearly suitable forforestation covered 57 % of the study area. The area well suitable for agriculture or energy crop growing covered 26-42 % of the study - depending if boulder-poor tills were included or excluded. Even larger areas might be possible for agriculture if for example remaining peat layer was used for compensating physical features of the mineral subsoil. Approximately 11 % was recommended for mire regeneration because of sensitive bottom soils, but much larger areas were possible for mire regeneratio. In 9 % of all cases fine mineral subsoils were on pool-forming locations and would this way offer sites best suitable for mire regeneration or even bird sanctuaries. Both EC and pH of the mineral subsoils were related to the presence of sulphur. The concentrations of Ca, Mg and K followed the fine-material percentage. Based on this study minimum analysis recommended was for pH, sulphur content and fine material (< 0.06 mm percentage. Other relevant elements were calcium, magnesium and potassium. Different land-use scenarios were created for areas inafter-use, released from peat production and in peat production (2004. These scenarios were based on the mineral subsoil suitability for different after-use forms. In these scenarios the total area annual carbon fixation values varied between 0.096 and 0.152 million t C a-1, when carbon emissions were not included.

  16. Scenario-based resilience assessment framework for critical infrastructure systems: Case study for seismic resilience of seaports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafieezadeh, Abdollah; Ivey Burden, Lindsay

    2014-01-01

    A number of metrics in the past have been proposed and numerically implemented to assess the overall performance of large systems during natural disasters and their recovery in the aftermath of the events. Among such performance measures, resilience is a reliable metric. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework for scenario-based resilience assessment of infrastructure systems. The method accounts for uncertainties in the process including the correlation of the earthquake intensity measures, fragility assessment of structural components, estimation of repair requirements, the repair process, and finally the service demands. The proposed method is applied to a hypothetical seaport terminal and the system level performance of the seaport is assessed using various performance metrics. Results of this analysis have shown that medium to large seismic events may significantly disrupt the operation of seaports right after the event and the recovery process may take months. The proposed framework will enable port stakeholders to systematically assess the most-likely performance of the system during expected future earthquake events. - Highlights: • A scenario-based framework for seismic resilience assessment of systems is presented. • Seismic resilience of a hypothetical seaport with realistic settings is studied. • Berth availability is found to govern seaport functionality following earthquakes

  17. The effects of scenario-based communication training on nurses' communication competence and self-efficacy and myocardial infarction knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Li-Ling; Huang, Ya-Hsuan; Hsieh, Suh-Ing

    2014-06-01

    The aim of the study was to determine the effects of a simulated communication training course on nurses' communication competence, self-efficacy, communication performance, myocardial infarction knowledge, and general satisfaction with their learning experience. A randomized controlled trial was conducted with a pre-test and two post-tests. The experimental group underwent simulated communication training course and the control group received a case-based communication training course. The experimental group made more significant improvement in competence and self-efficacy in communication from pre-test to the second post-test than the control group. Although both groups' satisfaction with their learning experience significantly increased from the first post-test to the second post-test, the experimental group was found to be more satisfied with their learning experience than the control group. No significant differences in communication performance and myocardial infarction knowledge between the two groups were identified. Scenario-based communication training can be more fully incorporated into in-service education for nurses to boost their competence and self-efficacy in communication and enhance their communication performance in myocardial infarction patient care. Introduction of real-life communication scenarios through multimedia in communication education could make learners more motivated to practice communication, hence leading to improved communication capacity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A Usability and Learnability Case Study of Glass Flight Deck Interfaces and Pilot Interactions through Scenario-based Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Cino, Thomas J., II

    In the aviation industry, digitally produced and presented flight, navigation, and aircraft information is commonly referred to as glass flight decks. Glass flight decks are driven by computer-based subsystems and have long been a part of military and commercial aviation sectors. Over the past 15 years, the General Aviation (GA) sector of the aviation industry has become a recent beneficiary of the rapid advancement of computer-based glass flight deck (GFD) systems. While providing the GA pilot considerable enhancements in the quality of information about the status and operations of the aircraft, training pilots on the use of glass flight decks is often delivered with traditional methods (e.g. textbooks, PowerPoint presentations, user manuals, and limited computer-based training modules). These training methods have been reported as less than desirable in learning to use the glass flight deck interface. Difficulties in achieving a complete understanding of functional and operational characteristics of the GFD systems, acquiring a full understanding of the interrelationships of the varied subsystems, and handling the wealth of flight information provided have been reported. Documented pilot concerns of poor user experience and satisfaction, and problems with the learning the complex and sophisticated interface of the GFD are additional issues with current pilot training approaches. A case study was executed to explore ways to improve training using GFD systems at a Midwestern aviation university. The researcher investigated if variations in instructional systems design and training methods for learning glass flight deck technology would affect the perceptions and attitudes of pilots of the learnability (an attribute of usability) of the glass flight deck interface. Specifically, this study investigated the effectiveness of scenario-based training (SBT) methods to potentially improve pilot knowledge and understanding of a GFD system, and overall pilot user

  19. Outdoor recreation-related outdoor education: scope of the research (1995-2010) 2

    OpenAIRE

    Lynch, Philippa

    2012-01-01

    Article made available with the permission of the New Zealand Journal of Outdoor Education. This is part two of an article on the scope of the New Zealand outdoor recreation-related outdoor education research published from January 1995 to June 2010. It draws on the literature covered the 2010 Sport and Recreation New Zealand-funded Outdoor Recreation Research Stocktake, which included outdoor education material. This part covers resources for outdoor recreation-related outdoor education, ...

  20. Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-10-01

    Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. A solution to the water resources crisis in wetlands: development of a scenario-based modeling approach with uncertain features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Ying; Huang, Guohe; Sun, Wei

    2013-01-01

    A scenario-based interval two-phase fuzzy programming (SITF) method was developed for water resources planning in a wetland ecosystem. The SITF approach incorporates two-phase fuzzy programming, interval mathematical programming, and scenario analysis within a general framework. It can tackle fuzzy and interval uncertainties in terms of cost coefficients, resources availabilities, water demands, hydrological conditions and other parameters within a multi-source supply and multi-sector consumption context. The SITF method has the advantage in effectively improving the membership degrees of the system objective and all fuzzy constraints, so that both higher satisfactory grade of the objective and more efficient utilization of system resources can be guaranteed. Under the systematic consideration of water demands by the ecosystem, the SITF method was successfully applied to Baiyangdian Lake, which is the largest wetland in North China. Multi-source supplies (including the inter-basin water sources of Yuecheng Reservoir and Yellow River), and multiple water users (including agricultural, industrial and domestic sectors) were taken into account. The results indicated that, the SITF approach would generate useful solutions to identify long-term water allocation and transfer schemes under multiple economic, environmental, ecological, and system-security targets. It can address a comparative analysis for the system satisfactory degrees of decisions under various policy scenarios. Moreover, it is of significance to quantify the relationship between hydrological change and human activities, such that a scheme on ecologically sustainable water supply to Baiyangdian Lake can be achieved. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. An efficient scenario-based stochastic programming framework for multi-objective optimal micro-grid operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niknam, Taher; Azizipanah-Abarghooee, Rasoul; Narimani, Mohammad Rasoul

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Proposes a stochastic model for optimal energy management. ► Consider uncertainties related to the forecasted values for load demand. ► Consider uncertainties of forecasted values of output power of wind and photovoltaic units. ► Consider uncertainties of forecasted values of market price. ► Present an improved multi-objective teaching–learning-based optimization. -- Abstract: This paper proposes a stochastic model for optimal energy management with the goal of cost and emission minimization. In this model, the uncertainties related to the forecasted values for load demand, available output power of wind and photovoltaic units and market price are modeled by a scenario-based stochastic programming. In the presented method, scenarios are generated by a roulette wheel mechanism based on probability distribution functions of the input random variables. Through this method, the inherent stochastic nature of the proposed problem is released and the problem is decomposed into a deterministic problem. An improved multi-objective teaching–learning-based optimization is implemented to yield the best expected Pareto optimal front. In the proposed stochastic optimization method, a novel self adaptive probabilistic modification strategy is offered to improve the performance of the presented algorithm. Also, a set of non-dominated solutions are stored in a repository during the simulation process. Meanwhile, the size of the repository is controlled by usage of a fuzzy-based clustering technique. The best expected compromise solution stored in the repository is selected via the niching mechanism in a way that solutions are encouraged to seek the lesser explored regions. The proposed framework is applied in a typical grid-connected micro grid in order to verify its efficiency and feasibility.

  3. Assessing Consequential Scenarios in a Complex Operational Environment Using Agent Based Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-16

    capabilities and maturities of 4 subelements: cognition, judgment, emotion , and critical thinking. Each model represents these subelements differently...CADSIM) 102 5.2 Evaluating Agent-Based Technologies: Maturity Level and the Human Domain 103 5.2.1 Evaluation of Maturity Level 103 5.2.2 Human...describes the maturity of agent-based models, ranging from realistic caricatures to quantitatively characterized phenomena at the microlevel. This

  4. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  5. Problem-based scenarios with laptops: an effective combination for cross-curricular learning in mathematics, science and language

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Freiman

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Many educational systems consider using one-to-one access to the laptop as a way to improve teaching and learning. A two-year action research project on the use of laptop computers by New Brunswick (Canada grade 7 and 8 Francophone students aimed to better understand the impact of laptops on learning. Two problem-based learning (PBL interdisciplinary scenarios (math, science, language arts were implemented in eight experimental classes to measure and document students’ actual learning process, particularly in terms of their ability to scientifically investigate authentic problems, to reason mathematically, and to communicate. On-site observations, video-recording, journals, samples of students’ work, and interviews were used to collect qualitative data. Based on our findings, we argue that laptops in and of themselves may not automatically lead to better results on standardized tests, but rather create opportunities to enrich learning with more open-ended, constructive, collaborative, reflective, and cognitively complex learning tasks.

  6. ICT Based HIL Validation of Voltage Control Coordination in Smart Grids Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahid, Kamal; Petersen, Lennart; Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein

    2018-01-01

    as the associated data traffic patterns obtained from a real network. Based on the sets of recordings, guidelines and recommendations for practical implementation of the developed control algorithms for targeted ancillary service are made. This provides a deep insight for stakeholders i.e. wind turbines and PV....... However, here, the results are validated through a real-time Hardware-In-The-Loop framework using an exemplary benchmark grid area in Denmark as a base case that includes flexible renewable power plants providing voltage control functionality. The provision of voltage control support from ReGen plants...

  7. The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

    2013-12-01

    At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

  8. A procedure for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirose, Jiro; Muramatsu, Ken

    2002-03-01

    This report presents a study on the procedures for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). In the recent years, the use of PSHA, which is a part of seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), to determine the design basis earthquake motions for NPPs has been proposed. The identified earthquakes are called probability-based scenario earthquakes (PBSEs). The concept of PBSEs originates both from the study of US NRC and from Ishikawa and Kameda. The assessment of PBSEs is composed of seismic hazard analysis and identification of dominant earthquakes. The objectives of this study are to formulate the concept of PBSEs and to examine the procedures for determining the PBSEs for a domestic NPP site. This report consists of three parts, namely, procedures to compile analytical conditions for PBSEs, an assessment to identify PBSEs for a model site using the Ishikawa's concept and the examination of uncertainties involved in analytical conditions. The results obtained from the examination of PBSEs using Ishikawa's concept are as follows. (a) Since PBSEs are expressed by hazard-consistent magnitude and distance in terms of a prescribed reference probability, it is easy to obtain a concrete image of earthquakes that determine the ground response spectrum to be considered in the design of NPPs. (b) Source contribution factors provide the information on the importance of the earthquake source regions and/or active faults, and allows the selection of a couple of PBSEs based on their importance to the site. (c) Since analytical conditions involve uncertainty, sensitivity analyses on uncertainties that would affect seismic hazard curves and identification of PBSEs were performed on various aspects and provided useful insights for assessment of PBSEs. A result from this sensitivity analysis was that, although the difference in selection of attenuation equations led to a

  9. Scenario-based Requirements Elicitation in a Pain-teletreatment Application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Widya, I.A.; Bults, Richard G.A.; Huis in 't Veld, M.H.A.; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam Marie Rosé; Shishkov, Boris; Cordeiro, J.; Ranchordas, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a way to elicit requirements in the domain of eHealth, in particular telemedicine treatment, that is in alignment with the evidence based working practice in medicine. In collaboration with ICT developers, medical professionals co-shape the intended system, which has to support

  10. A model based method for evaluation of crop operation scenarios in greenhouses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooster, van 't A.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract

    This research initiated a model-based method to analyse labour in crop production systems and to quantify effects of system changes in order to contribute to effective greenhouse crop cultivation systems with efficient use of human labour and technology. This

  11. Using a Flexible Skill-Based Approach to Recognize Objects in Industrial Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Rasmus Skovgaard; Schou, Casper; Damgaard, Jens Skov

    2016-01-01

    Traditional industrial robots are highly efficient and precise and therefore well suited for carrying out simple, repetitive tasks. They are, however, complicated and time consuming to setup and re-program to perform new tasks. Skill-based programming attempts to reduce both the required time as ...

  12. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W. Stephen; Crawford, James M.; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S.; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B.; Wheeler, Thomas M.; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models. PMID:28725751

  13. Supply Chain Simulator: A Scenario-Based Educational Tool to Enhance Student Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, Atiq; Khan, Mehmood; Akhtar, Sohail

    2008-01-01

    Simulation-based educational products are excellent set of illustrative tools that proffer features like visualization of the dynamic behavior of a real system, etc. Such products have great efficacy in education and are known to be one of the first-rate student centered learning methodologies. These products allow students to practice skills such…

  14. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurabh Gupta BPharm

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories, service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models.

  15. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W Stephen; Crawford, James M; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B; Wheeler, Thomas M; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B; Robboy, Stanley J

    2015-01-01

    Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models.

  16. Sensor-based Human Activity Recognition in a Multi-user Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Liang; Gu, Tao; Tao, Xianping

    2009-01-01

    Existing work on sensor-based activity recognition focuses mainly on single-user activities. However, in real life, activities are often performed by multiple users involving interactions between them. In this paper, we propose Coupled Hidden Markov Models (CHMMs) to recognize multi-user activiti...

  17. The emergence of climate change mitigation action by society : An agent-based scenario discovery study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greeven, Sebastiaan; Kraan, O.D.E.; Chappin, E.J.L.; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the

  18. Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert G. Haight; Jeremy S. Fried

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire managers deploy suppression resources to bases and dispatch them to fires to maximize the percentage of fires that are successfully contained before unacceptable costs and losses occur. Deployment is made with budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number, location, and intensity of fires, all of which affect initial-attack success. To address...

  19. A triangular fuzzy TOPSIS-based approach for the application of water technologies in different emergency water supply scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Jianhua; Meng, Xianlin; Yu, Huan; You, Hong

    2016-09-01

    Because of the increasing frequency and intensity of unexpected natural disasters, providing safe drinking water for the affected population following a disaster has become a global challenge of growing concern. An onsite water supply technology that is portable, mobile, or modular is a more suitable and sustainable solution for the victims than transporting bottled water. In recent years, various water techniques, such as membrane-assisted technologies, have been proposed and successfully implemented in many places. Given the diversity of techniques available, the current challenge is how to scientifically identify the optimum options for different disaster scenarios. Hence, a fuzzy triangular-based multi-criteria, group decision-making tool was developed in this research. The approach was then applied to the selection of the most appropriate water technologies corresponding to the different emergency water supply scenarios. The results show this tool capable of facilitating scientific analysis in the evaluation and selection of emergency water technologies for enduring security drinking water supply in disaster relief.

  20. Scenarios Analysis of the Energies’ Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanying Chi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the development trends and variation characteristics of China’s economy, energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2007 to 2030, and the impacts on China’s economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions under the carbon tax policy scenarios, based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model. The results show that during the simulation period, China’s economy will keep a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down under the benchmark scenario. The energy consumption intensity and the carbon emissions intensity per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP will continually decrease. The energy consumption structure and industrial structure will gradually optimize. With the economic growth, the total energy consumption will constantly increase, and the carbon dioxide emissions are still large, and the situation of energy-saving and emission-reduction is still serious. The carbon tax is very important for energy-saving and emission-reduction and energy consumption structure optimization, and the effect of the carbon tax on GDP is small. If the carbon tax could be levied and the enterprise income tax could be reduced at the same time, the dual goals of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions and increasing the GDP growth can be achieved. Improving the technical progress level of clean power while implementing a carbon tax policy is very meaningful to optimize energy consumption structure and reduce the carbon emissions, but it has some offsetting effect to reduce energy consumption.

  1. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

    2016-03-24

    Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML.

  2. Definition: Conservation Education, Environmental Education, Outdoor Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1970

    Conservation education, outdoor education, and environmental education all have as a common goal the understanding and appreciation of the natural world. Outdoor education is a method of teaching wherein established disciplines, topics, and concepts which can best be taught outdoors are taught outdoors. Conservation education is the study of man's…

  3. The Cost of Becoming an Outdoor Instructor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cashel, Chris

    This article describes instructor criteria in three outdoor organizations: Outward Bound (OB), the National Outdoor Leadership School (NOLS), and the Wilderness Education Association (WEA). Common requirements for outdoor leadership programs are outdoor experience and skills, advanced first aid, CPR, and a minimum age requirement. Traditionally…

  4. 9 CFR 3.27 - Facilities, outdoor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Facilities, outdoor. 3.27 Section 3.27... Pigs and Hamsters Facilities and Operating Standards § 3.27 Facilities, outdoor. (a) Hamsters shall not be housed in outdoor facilities. (b) Guinea pigs shall not be housed in outdoor facilities unless...

  5. Marketingová komunikace Outdoor Training Clubu

    OpenAIRE

    Soukeníková, Karla

    2017-01-01

    Title: Outdoor Training Club's Marketing Communication Goals: The aim of the thesis is to evaluate current club's marketing communication and come up with the suggestions of how to improve marketing communication, which would be benefit for the club and it helps acquire new potential customers. Methods: Electronic and written questionnaire, informal semi-structured interviews, document analysis. Results: Based on research and interview with the owner, I found that the current marketing commun...

  6. Slam estimation in dynamic outdoor environments

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Zheyuan; Hu, Zhencheng; Uchimura, Keiichi; コ, シンテイ; ウチムラ, ケイイチ; 胡, 振程; 内村, 圭一

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes and compares three different approaches to estimate simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) in dynamic outdoor environments. SLAM has been intensively researched in recent years in the field of robotics and intelligent vehicles, many approaches have been proposed including occupancy grid mapping method (Bayesian, Dempster-Shafer and Fuzzy Logic), Localization estimation method (edge or point features based direct scan matching techniques, probabilistic likelihood, EK...

  7. Validation of a scenario-based assessment of critical thinking using an externally validated tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buur, Jennifer L; Schmidt, Peggy; Smylie, Dean; Irizarry, Kris; Crocker, Carlos; Tyler, John; Barr, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    With medical education transitioning from knowledge-based curricula to competency-based curricula, critical thinking skills have emerged as a major competency. While there are validated external instruments for assessing critical thinking, many educators have created their own custom assessments of critical thinking. However, the face validity of these assessments has not been challenged. The purpose of this study was to compare results from a custom assessment of critical thinking with the results from a validated external instrument of critical thinking. Students from the College of Veterinary Medicine at Western University of Health Sciences were administered a custom assessment of critical thinking (ACT) examination and the externally validated instrument, California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST), in the spring of 2011. Total scores and sub-scores from each exam were analyzed for significant correlations using Pearson correlation coefficients. Significant correlations between ACT Blooms 2 and deductive reasoning and total ACT score and deductive reasoning were demonstrated with correlation coefficients of 0.24 and 0.22, respectively. No other statistically significant correlations were found. The lack of significant correlation between the two examinations illustrates the need in medical education to externally validate internal custom assessments. Ultimately, the development and validation of custom assessments of non-knowledge-based competencies will produce higher quality medical professionals.

  8. Two-stage robust UC including a novel scenario-based uncertainty model for wind power applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Álvarez-Miranda, Eduardo; Campos-Valdés, Camilo; Rahmann, Claudia

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Methodological framework for obtaining Robust Unit Commitment (UC) policies. • Wind-power forecast using a revisited bootstrap predictive inference approach. • Novel scenario-based model for wind-power uncertainty. • Efficient modeling framework for obtaining nearly optimal UC policies in reasonable time. • Effective incorporation of wind-power uncertainty in the UC modeling. - Abstract: The complex processes involved in the determination of the availability of power from renewable energy sources, such as wind power, impose great challenges in the forecasting processes carried out by transmission system operators (TSOs). Nowadays, many of these TSOs use operation planning tools that take into account the uncertainty of the wind-power. However, most of these methods typically require strict assumptions about the probabilistic behavior of the forecast error, and usually ignore the dynamic nature of the forecasting process. In this paper a methodological framework to obtain Robust Unit Commitment (UC) policies is presented; such methodology considers a novel scenario-based uncertainty model for wind power applications. The proposed method is composed by three main phases. The first two phases generate a sound wind-power forecast using a bootstrap predictive inference approach. The third phase corresponds to modeling and solving a one-day ahead Robust UC considering the output of the first phase. The performance of proposed approach is evaluated using as case study a new wind farm to be incorporated into the Northern Interconnected System (NIS) of Chile. A projection of wind-based power installation, as well as different characteristic of the uncertain data, are considered in this study

  9. Investigation of UK Farmer Go/No-Go Decisions in Response to Tractor-Based Risk Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Amy; Poots, Jill

    2018-01-01

    Tractors are a source of injury and fatality in agriculture. Despite this farmers continue to engage in risk-taking behaviors, including operating tractors without appropriate equipment. In order to change behaviors and attitudes toward safety, it is important to understand how farmers approach different types of risk relevant to tractor use. The current study used a qualitative approach to investigate farmer perception of four types of tractor-based risk related to self, equipment, lack of safety features, and environment. A sample of 148 farmers from the United Kingdom and Ireland was recruited from farming forums to take part in an online scenario-based qualitative study. Participants were presented with 12 tractor-based scenarios, three from each category of risk, and asked to indicate if they would proceed to use the tractor (go) or not (no-go), then report their reasoning. Thematic analysis was used to identify data patterns. Farmers appeared to assess the consequences of risk in broader terms than the risk of injury to themselves; they also evaluated risk in terms of potential costs (e.g., repair bill) and losses (e.g., delay). Analysis indicated that financial risk was considered with more caution than personal risk in many cases. Farmers also considered usability, such as the functionality of tractor seat belts, indicating the importance of ensuring all safety equipment is fit for purpose. The management of agricultural risk should consider farmer priorities (such as financial costs) in order to develop effective messaging that focuses on those priorities, with the aim of reducing risk-taking behaviors.

  10. CFC Outdoor Tournament 2011

    CERN Multimedia

    2011-01-01

    Regardless of whether you’re a fan of the "beautiful game", you’ve probably heard that the CFC Outdoor Tournament 2011 is the sporting event of the year for the CERN Football Club. This unmissable social, cultural and sporting event will be a chance for CERNois to mingle with external visitors. In the 2011 edition of this legendary tournament, which is over 45 years old, the principle of “fair play” is once again on display. Ten teams – 8 from CERN – are competing for the CFC title. The tournament concludes with a final on 7 July final. Along with a thrilling match, there will also be a host of festivities for the final, including an exhibition game, the final awards ceremony, surprise gifts, a barbeque, musical performances, and more! Make sure to highlight 7 July (after 18.00) on your agenda, and take advantage of what will surely be an unforgettable day! The final tournament matches have been in progress since April and are ...

  11. Soil seed banks and their germination responses to cadmium and salinity stresses in coastal wetlands affected by reclamation and urbanization based on indoor and outdoor experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bai, Junhong, E-mail: junhongbai@163.com; Huang, Laibin, E-mail: seahuanglaibin@gmail.com; Gao, Zhaoqin; Lu, Qiongqiong; Wang, Junjing; Zhao, Qingqing

    2014-09-15

    Highlights: • A higher germination rate of soil seed bank was observed in the indoor experiment. • The outdoor experiment showed larger number and destiny of germinated seedlings. • Urbanization had greater impacts on soil seed banks than wetland reclamation. • Soil seed banks for wetland restoration were more suitable in the reclaimed region. • Suitable salt or Cd levels could activate seedling emergence in the soil seed bank. - Abstract: Indoor and outdoor seedling emergence experiments were conducted to thoroughly investigate germination patterns as affected by reclamation and urbanization, the ecological characteristics of soil seed banks, and their relationships with environmental factors in both urbanized and reclaimed regions of the Pearl River Delta in coastal wetlands. The germination rate of the soil seed bank was higher in the indoor experiment compared with that in the outdoor experiment, whereas the number and destiny of the germinated seedlings were greater in the outdoor experiment. The species diversity and number, as well as the richness and evenness indices, were higher in the urbanized region compared with the reclaimed region. However, the dominance and Sørensen similarity indices were greater in the reclaimed region compared with those indices in the urbanized region. Higher salinity and Cadmium (Cd) levels could inhibit seed germination; however, their suitable ranges (i.e. [0–2000 mg kg{sup −1}] for salinity and [0–4.0 mg kg{sup −1}] for available Cd) can activate seedling emergence, and more seedlings germinated under the intersectional levels at 0.34 mg kg{sup −1} available Cd and 778.6 mg kg{sup −1} salinity. Seawater intrusion caused by the sea level rise will possibly result in the salt-tolerant community in this area due to increasing salinity.

  12. Soil seed banks and their germination responses to cadmium and salinity stresses in coastal wetlands affected by reclamation and urbanization based on indoor and outdoor experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bai, Junhong; Huang, Laibin; Gao, Zhaoqin; Lu, Qiongqiong; Wang, Junjing; Zhao, Qingqing

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A higher germination rate of soil seed bank was observed in the indoor experiment. • The outdoor experiment showed larger number and destiny of germinated seedlings. • Urbanization had greater impacts on soil seed banks than wetland reclamation. • Soil seed banks for wetland restoration were more suitable in the reclaimed region. • Suitable salt or Cd levels could activate seedling emergence in the soil seed bank. - Abstract: Indoor and outdoor seedling emergence experiments were conducted to thoroughly investigate germination patterns as affected by reclamation and urbanization, the ecological characteristics of soil seed banks, and their relationships with environmental factors in both urbanized and reclaimed regions of the Pearl River Delta in coastal wetlands. The germination rate of the soil seed bank was higher in the indoor experiment compared with that in the outdoor experiment, whereas the number and destiny of the germinated seedlings were greater in the outdoor experiment. The species diversity and number, as well as the richness and evenness indices, were higher in the urbanized region compared with the reclaimed region. However, the dominance and Sørensen similarity indices were greater in the reclaimed region compared with those indices in the urbanized region. Higher salinity and Cadmium (Cd) levels could inhibit seed germination; however, their suitable ranges (i.e. [0–2000 mg kg −1 ] for salinity and [0–4.0 mg kg −1 ] for available Cd) can activate seedling emergence, and more seedlings germinated under the intersectional levels at 0.34 mg kg −1 available Cd and 778.6 mg kg −1 salinity. Seawater intrusion caused by the sea level rise will possibly result in the salt-tolerant community in this area due to increasing salinity

  13. EDGE TECHNOLOGIES IN IoT AND APPLICATION SCENARIO OF RFID BASED IoT

    OpenAIRE

    Dharam Gami *, Asst. Prof. Dhaval Nimavat, Asst. Prof. Shubham Sharma

    2016-01-01

    Internet of Things possesses the power to change the era. IoT will offer an advance connectivity between objects which will change the face of machine-to-machine communication. IoT will connect autonomous systems, devices and heterogeneous machines and make them communicate without human interactions. Many technologies will play significant role in IoT implementation. In this paper, we aim to describe the candidate of edge technologies in IoT and demonstrate how RFID based IoT system will loo...

  14. Assessment and comparison of total RF-EMF exposure in femtocell and macrocell base station scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Aerts, Sam; Plets, David; Verloock, Leen; Martens, Luc; Joseph, Wout

    2014-01-01

    The indoor coverage of a mobile service can be drastically improved by deployment of an indoor femtocell base station (FBS). However, the impact of its proximity on the total exposure of the human body to radio-frequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMFs) is unknown. Using a framework designed for the combination of near-field and far-field exposure, the authors assessed and compared the RF-EMF exposure of a mobile-phone (MP) user that is either connected to an FBS or a conventional macrocell...

  15. Accuracy of depolarization and delay spread predictions using advanced ray-based modeling in indoor scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mani Francesco

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This article investigates the prediction accuracy of an advanced deterministic propagation model in terms of channel depolarization and frequency selectivity for indoor wireless propagation. In addition to specular reflection and diffraction, the developed ray tracing tool considers penetration through dielectric blocks and/or diffuse scattering mechanisms. The sensitivity and prediction accuracy analysis is based on two measurement campaigns carried out in a warehouse and an office building. It is shown that the implementation of diffuse scattering into RT significantly increases the accuracy of the cross-polar discrimination prediction, whereas the delay-spread prediction is only marginally improved.

  16. Sensor-Based Human Activity Recognition in a Multi-user Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Liang; Gu, Tao; Tao, Xianping; Lu, Jian

    Existing work on sensor-based activity recognition focuses mainly on single-user activities. However, in real life, activities are often performed by multiple users involving interactions between them. In this paper, we propose Coupled Hidden Markov Models (CHMMs) to recognize multi-user activities from sensor readings in a smart home environment. We develop a multimodal sensing platform and present a theoretical framework to recognize both single-user and multi-user activities. We conduct our trace collection done in a smart home, and evaluate our framework through experimental studies. Our experimental result shows that we achieve an average accuracy of 85.46% with CHMMs.

  17. Soil seed banks and their germination responses to cadmium and salinity stresses in coastal wetlands affected by reclamation and urbanization based on indoor and outdoor experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Junhong; Huang, Laibin; Gao, Zhaoqin; Lu, Qiongqiong; Wang, Junjing; Zhao, Qingqing

    2014-09-15

    Indoor and outdoor seedling emergence experiments were conducted to thoroughly investigate germination patterns as affected by reclamation and urbanization, the ecological characteristics of soil seed banks, and their relationships with environmental factors in both urbanized and reclaimed regions of the Pearl River Delta in coastal wetlands. The germination rate of the soil seed bank was higher in the indoor experiment compared with that in the outdoor experiment, whereas the number and destiny of the germinated seedlings were greater in the outdoor experiment. The species diversity and number, as well as the richness and evenness indices, were higher in the urbanized region compared with the reclaimed region. However, the dominance and Sørensen similarity indices were greater in the reclaimed region compared with those indices in the urbanized region. Higher salinity and Cadmium (Cd) levels could inhibit seed germination; however, their suitable ranges (i.e. [0-2,000 mg kg(-1)] for salinity and [0-4.0 mg kg(-1)] for available Cd) can activate seedling emergence, and more seedlings germinated under the intersectional levels at 0.34 mg kg(-1) available Cd and 778.6 mg kg(-1) salinity. Seawater intrusion caused by the sea level rise will possibly result in the salt-tolerant community in this area due to increasing salinity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Enhancing integrated indoor/outdoor mobility in a smart campus

    OpenAIRE

    Torres Sospedra, Joaquín; Avariento, Joan; Rambla Risueño, David; Montoliu Colás, Raúl; Casteleyn, Sven; Benedito Bordonau, Mauri; Gould Carlson, Michael; Huerta Guijarro, Joaquín

    2015-01-01

    A Smart City relies on six key factors: Smart Governance, Smart People, Smart Economy, Smart Environment, Smart Living and Smart Mobility. This paper focuses on Smart Mobility by improving one of its key components: positioning. We developed and deployed a novel indoor positioning system (IPS) that is combined with an outdoor positioning system to support seamless indoor and outdoor navigation and wayfinding. The positioning system is implemented as a service in our broader cartography-based ...

  19. Evaluating interactive computer-based scenarios designed for learning medical technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Johanna; Dalholm, Elisabeth Hornyánszky; Wallergård, Mattias; Johansson, Gerd

    2014-11-01

    The use of medical equipment is growing in healthcare, resulting in an increased need for resources to educate users in how to manage the various devices. Learning the practical operation of a device is one thing, but learning how to work with the device in the actual clinical context is more challenging. This paper presents a computer-based simulation prototype for learning medical technology in the context of critical care. Properties from simulation and computer games have been adopted to create a visualization-based, interactive and contextually bound tool for learning. A participatory design process, including three researchers and three practitioners from a clinic for infectious diseases, was adopted to adjust the form and content of the prototype to the needs of the clinical practice and to create a situated learning experience. An evaluation with 18 practitioners showed that practitioners were positive to this type of tool for learning and that it served as a good platform for eliciting and sharing knowledge. Our conclusion is that this type of tools can be a complement to traditional learning resources to situate the learning in a context without requiring advanced technology or being resource-demanding. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Ray-Based Statistical Propagation Modeling for Indoor Corridor Scenarios at 15 GHz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the demands for fifth-generation (5G communication systems, high frequency bands (above 6 GHz need to be adopted to provide additional spectrum. This paper investigates the characteristics of indoor corridor channels at 15 GHz. Channel measurements with a vector network analyzer in two corridors were conducted. Based on a ray-optical approach, a deterministic channel model covering both antenna and propagation characteristic is presented. The channel model is evaluated by comparing simulated results of received power and root mean square delay spread with the corresponding measurements. By removing the impact of directional antennas from the transmitter and receiver, a path loss model as well as small-scale fading properties for typical corridors is presented based on the generated samples from the deterministic model. Results show that the standard deviation of path loss variation is related to the Tx height, and placing the Tx closer to the ceiling leads to a smaller fluctuation of path loss.

  1. Learning in data-limited multimodal scenarios: Scandent decision forests and tree-based features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hor, Soheil; Moradi, Mehdi

    2016-12-01

    Incomplete and inconsistent datasets often pose difficulties in multimodal studies. We introduce the concept of scandent decision trees to tackle these difficulties. Scandent trees are decision trees that optimally mimic the partitioning of the data determined by another decision tree, and crucially, use only a subset of the feature set. We show how scandent trees can be used to enhance the performance of decision forests trained on a small number of multimodal samples when we have access to larger datasets with vastly incomplete feature sets. Additionally, we introduce the concept of tree-based feature transforms in the decision forest paradigm. When combined with scandent trees, the tree-based feature transforms enable us to train a classifier on a rich multimodal dataset, and use it to classify samples with only a subset of features of the training data. Using this methodology, we build a model trained on MRI and PET images of the ADNI dataset, and then test it on cases with only MRI data. We show that this is significantly more effective in staging of cognitive impairments compared to a similar decision forest model trained and tested on MRI only, or one that uses other kinds of feature transform applied to the MRI data. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  2. [Outdoor activity and myopia among 681 primary students in urban and rural regions of Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yin; Liu, Lijuan; Xu, Liang; Lü, Yanyun; Tang, Ping; Feng, Yi

    2014-01-21

    To explore the association between outdoor activity and myopia among 681 primary students from Beijing. School-based, cross-sectional investigation. Eye examination includes the visual acuity test, auto-refractor, slit lamp, ocular biometry and non-mydriatic fundus camera. Questionnaire includes regular items, near work, outdoor activity and social-economic status. The mean time spent outdoors was 1.6 ± 0.8 hours daily. Time spent on outdoor sports and outdoor leisure were 0.7 ± 0.1 hours daily, 1.0 ± 0.8 hours daily, respectively. Mean time of outdoor activity in urban was 1.1 ± 0.4 hours daily, compared with 2.2 ± 0.8 hours daily in rural (P = 0.000). In grade-1, total time spent outdoors is significantly different between myopia and non-myopia (1.4 ± 0.6 vs 1.8 ± 0.8 hours daily, P = 0.000), similar to outdoor leisure (0.8 ± 0.6 vs 1.1 ± 0.9 hours daily, P = 0.000). The same trend was also found in grade-4. The mean time spent outdoors was 1.6 ± 0.8 hours daily. Myopia spent a lower outdoor activity compared with non-myopia. More outdoor activity, e.g., in schools, may potentially be helpful to reduce the high prevalence of myopia in the young generation.

  3. The Use of Open-Ended Problem-Based Learning Scenarios in an Interdisciplinary Biotechnology Class: Evaluation of a Problem-Based Learning Course Across Three Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd R. Steck

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Use of open-ended Problem-Based Learning (PBL in biology classrooms has been limited by the difficulty in designing problem scenarios such that the content learned in a course can be predicted and controlled, the lack of familiarity of this method of instruction by faculty, and the difficulty in assessment. Here we present the results of a study in which we developed a team-based interdisciplinary course that combined the fields of biology and civil engineering across three years. We used PBL scenarios as the only learning tool, wrote the problem scenarios, and developed the means to assess these courses and the results of that assessment. Our data indicates that PBL changed students’ perception of their learning in content knowledge and promoted a change in students’ learning styles. Although no  statistically significant improvement in problem-solving skills and critical thinking skills was observed, students reported substantial changes in their problem-based learning strategies and critical thinking skills.

  4. BRISENT: An Entropy-Based Model for Bridge-Pier Scour Estimation under Complex Hydraulic Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alonso Pizarro

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to introduce the first clear-water scour model based on both the informational entropy concept and the principle of maximum entropy, showing that a variational approach is ideal for describing erosional processes under complex situations. The proposed bridge–pier scour entropic (BRISENT model is capable of reproducing the main dynamics of scour depth evolution under steady hydraulic conditions, step-wise hydrographs, and flood waves. For the calibration process, 266 clear-water scour experiments from 20 precedent studies were considered, where the dimensionless parameters varied widely. Simple formulations are proposed to estimate BRISENT’s fitting coefficients, in which the ratio between pier-diameter and sediment-size was the most critical physical characteristic controlling scour model parametrization. A validation process considering highly unsteady and multi-peaked hydrographs was carried out, showing that the proposed BRISENT model reproduces scour evolution with high accuracy.

  5. Ontology-based indirect interaction of mobile robots for joint task solving: a scenario for obstacle overcoming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrov Mikhail

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an ontology-based approach to interaction of users and mobile robots for joint task solving. The use of ontologies allows supporting semantic interoperability between robots. The ontologies store knowledge about the tasks to be performed, knowledge about the functionality of robots and the current situation factors like a robot location or busyness. Ontologies are published in a smart space which allows indirect interaction between participants. On the basis of the knowledge, a robot can define a task that is to be performed and get the current status of other robots. The paper presents a reference model of the approach to indirect interaction between mobile robots for joint task solving, an ontology model for the knowledge organization, and application of the presented approach for the scenario for obstacle overcoming.

  6. Nearby outdoor environments and seniors physical activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Wang

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available More than 60% of older Americans have sedentary lifestyles1 1 According to DHHS (1996. and are recommended more physical activities for health benefit. Nearby outdoor environments on residential sites may impact older inhabitants׳ physical activities there (defined as walking, gardening, yard work, and other outdoor physical activities on residential sites. This study surveyed 110 assisted-living residents in Houston, Texas, regarding their previous residential sites before moving to a retirement community and physical activities there. Twelve environmental features were studied under four categories (typology, motivators, function, and safety. Based on data availability, a subset of 57 sample sites was analyzed in Geographic Information Systems. Hierarchical linear modeling was applied to estimate physical activities as a function of the environments. Higher levels of physical activity were found to be positively related with four environmental features (transitional-areas, connecting-paths, walk-ability, and less paving.

  7. Tsunami Scenarios Based on Interseismic Models Along the Nankai Trough, Japan, From Seafloor and Onshore Geodesy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Shun-ichi; Bock, Yehuda; Melgar, Diego; Tadokoro, Keiichi

    2018-03-01

    The recent availability of Global Positioning System-Acoustic seafloor geodetic observations enables us to resolve the spatial distribution of the slip deficit rate near the Nankai trough, southwestern Japan. Considering a tectonic block model and the transient deformation due to the major earthquakes in this area, the slip deficit rate between the two relevant blocks can be estimated. In this study, we remove the time-dependent postseismic deformation of the 2004 southeastern off the Kii Peninsula earthquakes (MJMA 7.1, 7.4), which had led to the underestimation of the slip deficit rate in earlier studies. We model the postearthquake viscoelastic relaxation using the 3D finite element model with bi-viscous Burgers rheology, as well as the afterslip on the finite faults. The corrected Global Positioning System-Acoustic and land-based Global Navigation Satellite Systems data are aligned to the existing tectonic model and used to estimate the slip deficit rate on the plate boundary. We then calculate the coseismic displacements and tsunami wave propagation with the simple assumption that a hundred years of constant slip deficit accumulation was released instantaneously. To evaluate the influence of uncertainties in the plate interface geometry on a tsunami model for the Nankai trough, we investigated two different geometries and performed checkerboard inversion simulations. Although the two models indicate roughly similar results, the peak height of the tsunami wave and its arrival time at several points are significantly different in terms of the expected hazard.

  8. Moral foundations vignettes: a standardized stimulus database of scenarios based on moral foundations theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifford, Scott; Iyengar, Vijeth; Cabeza, Roberto; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter

    2015-12-01

    Research on the emotional, cognitive, and social determinants of moral judgment has surged in recent years. The development of moral foundations theory (MFT) has played an important role, demonstrating the breadth of morality. Moral psychology has responded by investigating how different domains of moral judgment are shaped by a variety of psychological factors. Yet, the discipline lacks a validated set of moral violations that span the moral domain, creating a barrier to investigating influences on judgment and how their neural bases might vary across the moral domain. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by developing and validating a large set of moral foundations vignettes (MFVs). Each vignette depicts a behavior violating a particular moral foundation and not others. The vignettes are controlled on many dimensions including syntactic structure and complexity making them suitable for neuroimaging research. We demonstrate the validity of our vignettes by examining respondents' classifications of moral violations, conducting exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and demonstrating the correspondence between the extracted factors and existing measures of the moral foundations. We expect that the MFVs will be beneficial for a wide variety of behavioral and neuroimaging investigations of moral cognition.

  9. Moral foundations vignettes: a standardized stimulus database of scenarios based on moral foundations theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyengar, Vijeth; Cabeza, Roberto; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter

    2016-01-01

    Research on the emotional, cognitive, and social determinants of moral judgment has surged in recent years. The development of moral foundations theory (MFT) has played an important role, demonstrating the breadth of morality. Moral psychology has responded by investigating how different domains of moral judgment are shaped by a variety of psychological factors. Yet, the discipline lacks a validated set of moral violations that span the moral domain, creating a barrier to investigating influences on judgment and how their neural bases might vary across the moral domain. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by developing and validating a large set of moral foundations vignettes (MFVs). Each vignette depicts a behavior violating a particular moral foundation and not others. The vignettes are controlled on many dimensions including syntactic structure and complexity making them suitable for neuroimaging research. We demonstrate the validity of our vignettes by examining respondents’ classifications of moral violations, conducting exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and demonstrating the correspondence between the extracted factors and existing measures of the moral foundations. We expect that the MFVs will be beneficial for a wide variety of behavioral and neuroimaging investigations of moral cognition. PMID:25582811

  10. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES: Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher L Cummings

    Full Text Available Synthetic biology (SB applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  11. Language Learning in Outdoor Environments: Perspectives of preschool staff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Norling

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Language environment is highlighted as an important area in the early childhood education sector. The term language environment refers to language-promoting aspects of education, such as preschool staff’s use of verbal language in interacting with the children. There is a lack of research about language learning in outdoor environments; thus children’s language learning is mostly based on the indoor physical environment. The aim of this study is therefore to explore, analyse, and describe how preschool staff perceive language learning in outdoor environments. The data consists of focus-group interviews with 165 preschool staff members, conducted in three cities in Sweden. The study is meaningful, thus results contribute knowledge regarding preschool staffs’ understandings of language learning in outdoor environments and develop insights to help preschool staff stimulate children’s language learning in outdoor environments.

  12. Variability in research ethics review of cluster randomized trials: a scenario-based survey in three countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) present unique ethical challenges. In the absence of a uniform standard for their ethical design and conduct, problems such as variability in procedures and requirements by different research ethics committees will persist. We aimed to assess the need for ethics guidelines for CRTs among research ethics chairs internationally, investigate variability in procedures for research ethics review of CRTs within and among countries, and elicit research ethics chairs’ perspectives on specific ethical issues in CRTs, including the identification of research subjects. The proper identification of research subjects is a necessary requirement in the research ethics review process, to help ensure, on the one hand, that subjects are protected from harm and exploitation, and on the other, that reviews of CRTs are completed efficiently. Methods A web-based survey with closed- and open-ended questions was administered to research ethics chairs in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The survey presented three scenarios of CRTs involving cluster-level, professional-level, and individual-level interventions. For each scenario, a series of questions was posed with respect to the type of review required (full, expedited, or no review) and the identification of research subjects at cluster and individual levels. Results A total of 189 (35%) of 542 chairs responded. Overall, 144 (84%, 95% CI 79 to 90%) agreed or strongly agreed that there is a need for ethics guidelines for CRTs and 158 (92%, 95% CI 88 to 96%) agreed or strongly agreed that research ethics committees could be better informed about distinct ethical issues surrounding CRTs. There was considerable variability among research ethics chairs with respect to the type of review required, as well as the identification of research subjects. The cluster-cluster and professional-cluster scenarios produced the most disagreement. Conclusions Research ethics committees

  13. Pesticide exposure assessment for surface waters in the EU. Part 2: Determination of statistically based run-off and drainage scenarios for Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bach, Martin; Diesner, Mirjam; Großmann, Dietlinde; Guerniche, Djamal; Hommen, Udo; Klein, Michael; Kubiak, Roland; Müller, Alexandra; Preuss, Thomas G; Priegnitz, Jan; Reichenberger, Stefan; Thomas, Kai; Trapp, Matthias

    2017-05-01

    In order to assess surface water exposure to active substances of plant protection products (PPPs) in the European Union (EU), the FOCUS (FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their USe) surface water workgroup introduced four run-off and six drainage scenarios for Step 3 of the tiered FOCUSsw approach. These scenarios may not necessarily represent realistic worst-case situations for the different Member States of the EU. Hence, the suitability of the scenarios for risk assessment in the national authorisation procedures is not known. Using Germany as an example, the paper illustrates how national soil-climate scenarios can be developed to model entries of active substances into surface waters from run-off and erosion (using the model PRZM) and from drainage (using the model MACRO). In the authorisation procedure for PPPs on Member State level, such soil-climate scenarios can be used to determine exposure endpoints with a defined overall percentile. The approach allows the development of national specific soil-climate scenarios and to calculate percentile-based exposure endpoints. The scenarios have been integrated into a software tool analogous to FOCUS-SWASH which can be used in the future to assess surface water exposure in authorisation procedures of PPPs in Germany. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

  14. Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaiee, Mohammad Mahdi; Gholamnia, Reza; Ketabdari, Mohammad Javad

    2016-09-01

    Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

  15. Scenarios, personas and user stories from design ethnography: Evidence-based design representations of communicable disease investigations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Anne M; Reeder, Blaine; Ramey, Judith

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Despite years of effort and millions of dollars spent to create a unified electronic communicable disease reporting systems, the goal remains elusive. A major barrier has been a lack of understanding by system designers of communicable disease (CD) work and the public health workers who perform this work. This study reports on the application of User Center Design representations, traditionally used for improving interface design, to translate the complex CD work identified through ethnographic studies to guide designers and developers of CD systems. The purpose of this work is to: (1) better understand public health practitioners and their information workflow with respect to communicable disease (CD) monitoring and control at a local health department, and (2) to develop evidence-based design representations that model this CD work to inform the design of future disease surveillance systems. Methods We performed extensive onsite semi-structured interviews, targeted work shadowing and a focus group to characterize local health department communicable disease workflow. Informed by principles of design ethnography and user-centered design (UCD) we created persona, scenarios and user stories to accurately represent the user to system designers. Results We sought to convey to designers the key findings from ethnographic studies: 1) that public health CD work is mobile and episodic, in contrast to current CD reporting systems, which are stationary and fixed 2) health department efforts are focused on CD investigation and response rather than reporting and 3) current CD information systems must conform to PH workflow to ensure their usefulness. In an effort to illustrate our findings to designers, we developed three contemporary design-support representations: persona, scenario, and user story. Conclusions Through application of user centered design principles, we were able to create design representations that illustrate complex public health communicable

  16. Scenarios, personas and user stories: user-centered evidence-based design representations of communicable disease investigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Anne M; Reeder, Blaine; Ramey, Judith

    2013-08-01

    Despite years of effort and millions of dollars spent to create unified electronic communicable disease reporting systems, the goal remains elusive. A major barrier has been a lack of understanding by system designers of communicable disease (CD) work and the public health workers who perform this work. This study reports on the application of user-centered design representations, traditionally used for improving interface design, to translate the complex CD work identified through ethnographic studies to guide designers and developers of CD systems. The purpose of this work is to: (1) better understand public health practitioners and their information workflow with respect to CD monitoring and control at a local health agency, and (2) to develop evidence-based design representations that model this CD work to inform the design of future disease surveillance systems. We performed extensive onsite semi-structured interviews, targeted work shadowing and a focus group to characterize local health agency CD workflow. Informed by principles of design ethnography and user-centered design we created persona, scenarios and user stories to accurately represent the user to system designers. We sought to convey to designers the key findings from ethnographic studies: (1) public health CD work is mobile and episodic, in contrast to current CD reporting systems, which are stationary and fixed, (2) health agency efforts are focused on CD investigation and response rather than reporting and (3) current CD information systems must conform to public health workflow to ensure their usefulness. In an effort to illustrate our findings to designers, we developed three contemporary design-support representations: persona, scenario, and user story. Through application of user-centered design principles, we were able to create design representations that illustrate complex public health communicable disease workflow and key user characteristics to inform the design of CD information

  17. Scenario based product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tideman, M.

    2008-01-01

    Creating good products is not an easy thing to do. There are usually many different people who have an interest in the product. People such as the user, of course, but also marketing managers, production engineers, maintenance workers, recycling specialists, and government representatives, just to

  18. A Semantic Web-Based Authoring Tool to Facilitate the Planning of Collaborative Learning Scenarios Compliant with Learning Theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isotani, Seiji; Mizoguchi, Riichiro; Isotani, Sadao; Capeli, Olimpio M.; Isotani, Naoko; de Albuquerque, Antonio R. P. L.; Bittencourt, Ig. I.; Jaques, Patricia

    2013-01-01

    When the goal of group activities is to support long-term learning, the task of designing well-thought-out collaborative learning (CL) scenarios is an important key to success. To help students adequately acquire and develop their knowledge and skills, a teacher can plan a scenario that increases the probability for learning to occur. Such a…

  19. Community-Based Policies and Support for Free Drinking Water Access in Outdoor Areas and Building Standards in U.S. Municipalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sohyun; Onufrak, Stephen; Wilking, Cara; Cradock, Angie

    2018-04-01

    We examined community-level characteristics associated with free drinking water access policies in U.S. municipalities using data from a nationally representative survey of city managers/officials from 2,029 local governments in 2014. Outcomes were 4 free drinking water access policies. Explanatory measures were population size, rural/urban status, census region, poverty prevalence, education, and racial/ethnic composition. We used multivariable logistic regression to test differences and presented only significant findings. Many (56.3%) local governments had at least one community plan with a written objective to provide free drinking water in outdoor areas; municipalities in the Northeast and South regions and municipalities with ≤ 50% of non-Hispanic whites were less likely and municipalities with larger population size were more likely to have a plan. About 59% had polices/budget provisions for free drinking water in parks/outdoor recreation areas; municipalities in the Northeast and South regions were less likely and municipalities with larger population size were more likely to have it. Only 9.3% provided development incentives for placing drinking fountains in outdoor, publicly accessible areas; municipalities with larger population size were more likely to have it. Only 7.7% had a municipal plumbing code with a drinking fountain standard that differed from the statewide plumbing code; municipalities with a lower proportion of non-Hispanic whites were more likely to have it. In conclusion, over half of municipalities had written plans or a provision for providing free drinking water in parks, but providing development incentives or having a local plumbing code provision were rare.

  20. OUTDOOR EDUCATION AND GEOGRAPHICAL EDUCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANDREA GUARAN

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the reflection on the relationship between values and methodological principles of Outdoor Education and spatial and geographical education perspectives, especially in pre-school and primary school, which relates to the age between 3 and 10 years. Outdoor Education is an educational practice that is already rooted in the philosophical thought of the 16th and the 17th centuries, from John Locke to Jean-Jacques Rousseau, and in the pedagogical thought, in particular Friedrich Fröbel, and it has now a quite stable tradition in Northern Europe countries. In Italy, however, there are still few experiences and they usually do not have a systematic and structural modality, but rather a temporarily and experimentally outdoor organization. In the first part, this paper focuses on the reasons that justify a particular attention to educational paths that favour outdoors activities, providing also a definition of outdoor education and highlighting its values. It is also essential to understand that educational programs in open spaces, such as a forest or simply the schoolyard, surely offers the possibility to learn geographical situations. Therefore, the question that arises is how to finalize the best stimulus that the spatial location guarantees for the acquisition of knowledge, skills and abilities about space and geography.

  1. Research trends in outdoor pig production — A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun-Suk Park

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Since the industrialization of swine production in the late 1900s, swine farms in the United States, as well as in Europe, have largely become consolidated. Pig farms became larger in size but fewer in number, with 91% of market pigs being produced by large operations with 5,000 or more pigs on-site in the US, and only 3% of the total utilized agricultural land representing organic farming. Such change in the market made it difficult for small farmers to stay competitive, forcing them to find alternative ways to reduce the cost of production and increase profit using the outdoor production system. In contrast to the indoor confinement system, outdoor production system uses pasture-based units and/or deep-bedded hoop structures that promote animal welfare and environmental sustainability with a lower capital investment. In accord with the growing concern for animal and environmental welfare and food safety by the consumers, small farmers practicing an outdoor production system are seeing increased opportunities for marketing their products in the pork niche market. Unlike the general belief that the reproductive and growth performance measures of the outdoor sows and piglets are poorer in comparison with the animals reared indoors, studies showed that there was no significant difference in the performance measures, and some traits were even better in outdoor animals. Improved reproductive and production traits can increase the sustainability of outdoor farming. Present study reviewed the recent studies comparing the performance measures, meat quality and health of indoor and outdoor animals, as well as the efforts to improve the outdoor production system through changes in management such as hut types and breed of animals.

  2. Research trends in outdoor pig production — A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Hyun-Suk; Min, Byungrok; Oh, Sang-Hyon

    2017-01-01

    Since the industrialization of swine production in the late 1900s, swine farms in the United States, as well as in Europe, have largely become consolidated. Pig farms became larger in size but fewer in number, with 91% of market pigs being produced by large operations with 5,000 or more pigs on-site in the US, and only 3% of the total utilized agricultural land representing organic farming. Such change in the market made it difficult for small farmers to stay competitive, forcing them to find alternative ways to reduce the cost of production and increase profit using the outdoor production system. In contrast to the indoor confinement system, outdoor production system uses pasture-based units and/or deep-bedded hoop structures that promote animal welfare and environmental sustainability with a lower capital investment. In accord with the growing concern for animal and environmental welfare and food safety by the consumers, small farmers practicing an outdoor production system are seeing increased opportunities for marketing their products in the pork niche market. Unlike the general belief that the reproductive and growth performance measures of the outdoor sows and piglets are poorer in comparison with the animals reared indoors, studies showed that there was no significant difference in the performance measures, and some traits were even better in outdoor animals. Improved reproductive and production traits can increase the sustainability of outdoor farming. Present study reviewed the recent studies comparing the performance measures, meat quality and health of indoor and outdoor animals, as well as the efforts to improve the outdoor production system through changes in management such as hut types and breed of animals. PMID:28728401

  3. Built environment, parents' perception, and children's vigorous outdoor play.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bringolf-Isler, Bettina; Grize, Leticia; Mäder, Urs; Ruch, Nicole; Sennhauser, Felix H; Braun-Fahrländer, Charlotte

    2010-01-01

    To evaluate the combined effects and relative importance of socio-cultural factors as well as parents' subjectively perceived and objectively assessed environment on time children spent vigorously playing outdoors. Cross-sectional study conducted in Berne, Biel-Bienne, and Payerne (Switzerland) during the school year 2004/2005. Included 1345 parental questionnaires from children out of three age groups (6/7, 9/10, and 13/14 years). A total of 1081 (80%) provided a home address, which could be linked to environmental data using a geographic information system (GIS). GIS-derived main street density in a buffer of 100 m around the home was inversely associated with time playing outdoors in adolescents and younger children, but only in more urbanized areas. In addition and independently of GIS-based main street density, parental concern about traffic safety was associated with less time playing outdoors in primary school children. Girls, adolescents, and children from the French speaking part of the country spent less time playing outdoors. A non-Swiss nationality and having younger siblings increased time playing vigorously outdoors in adolescents. In addition to socio-cultural factors, parents' perceptions and objectively measured environmental factors were significantly associated with the time spent vigorously playing outdoors. These associations differed by age group. Copyright (c) 2010 The Institute For Cancer Prevention. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. The Comparison of Distributed P2P Trust Models Based on Quantitative Parameters in the File Downloading Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingpei Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Varied P2P trust models have been proposed recently; it is necessary to develop an effective method to evaluate these trust models to resolve the commonalities (guiding the newly generated trust models in theory and individuality (assisting a decision maker in choosing an optimal trust model to implement in specific context issues. A new method for analyzing and comparing P2P trust models based on hierarchical parameters quantization in the file downloading scenarios is proposed in this paper. Several parameters are extracted from the functional attributes and quality feature of trust relationship, as well as requirements from the specific network context and the evaluators. Several distributed P2P trust models are analyzed quantitatively with extracted parameters modeled into a hierarchical model. The fuzzy inferring method is applied to the hierarchical modeling of parameters to fuse the evaluated values of the candidate trust models, and then the relative optimal one is selected based on the sorted overall quantitative values. Finally, analyses and simulation are performed. The results show that the proposed method is reasonable and effective compared with the previous algorithms.

  5. A specific scenario for the origin of life and the genetic code based on peptide/oligonucleotide interdependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Robert W

    2009-12-01

    Among various scenarios that attempt to explain how life arose, the RNA world is currently the most widely accepted scientific hypothesis among biologists. However, the RNA world is logistically implausible and doesn't explain how translation arose and DNA became incorporated into living systems. Here I propose an alternative hypothesis for life's origin based on cooperation between simple nucleic acids, peptides and lipids. Organic matter that accumulated on the prebiotic Earth segregated into phases in the ocean based on density and solubility. Synthesis of complex organic monomers and polymerization reactions occurred within a surface hydrophilic layer and at its aqueous and atmospheric interfaces. Replication of nucleic acids and translation of peptides began at the emulsified interface between hydrophobic and aqueous layers. At the core of the protobiont was a family of short nucleic acids bearing arginine's codon and anticodon that added this amino acid to pre-formed peptides. In turn, the survival and replication of nucleic acid was aided by the peptides. The arginine-enriched peptides served to sequester and transfer phosphate bond energy and acted as cohesive agents, aggregating nucleic acids and keeping them at the interface.

  6. [A Study on the Cognitive Learning Effectiveness of Scenario-Based Concept Mapping in a Neurological Nursing Course].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Hui-Ching; Hsieh, Suh-Ing; Hsu, Li-Ling

    2015-12-01

    The multiple levels of knowledge related to the neurological system deter many students from pursuing studies on this topic. Thus, in facing complicated and uncertain medical circumstances, nursing students have diffi-culty adjusting and using basic neurological-nursing knowledge and skills. Scenario-based concept-mapping teaching has been shown to promote the integration of complicated data, clarify related concepts, and increase the effectiveness of cognitive learning. To investigate the effect on the neurological-nursing cognition and learning attitude of nursing students of a scenario-based concept-mapping strategy that was integrated into the neurological nursing unit of a medical and surgical nursing course. This quasi-experimental study used experimental and control groups and a pre-test / post-test design. Sopho-more (2nd year) students in a four-year program at a university of science and technology in Taiwan were convenience sampled using cluster randomization that was run under SPSS 17.0. Concept-mapping lessons were used as the intervention for the experimental group. The control group followed traditional lesson plans only. The cognitive learning outcome was measured using the neurological nursing-learning examination. Both concept-mapping and traditional lessons significantly improved post-test neurological nursing learning scores (p learning attitude with regard to the teaching material. Furthermore, a significant number in the experimental group expressed the desire to add more lessons on anatomy, physiology, and pathology. These results indicate that this intervention strategy may help change the widespread fear and refusal of nursing students with regard to neurological lessons and may facilitate interest and positively affect learning in this important subject area. Integrating the concept-mapping strategy and traditional clinical-case lessons into neurological nursing lessons holds the potential to increase post-test scores significantly

  7. X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy as a tool to investigate silane-based coatings for the protection of outdoor bronze: The role of alloying elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masi, G.; Balbo, A.; Esvan, J.; Monticelli, C.; Avila, J.; Robbiola, L.; Bernardi, E.; Bignozzi, M. C.; Asensio, M. C.; Martini, C.; Chiavari, C.

    2018-03-01

    Application of a protective coating is the most widely used conservation treatment for outdoor bronzes (cast Cu-Sn-Zn-Pb-Sb alloys). However, improving coating protectiveness requires detailed knowledge of the coating/substrate chemical bonding. This is particularly the case for 3-mercapto-propyl-trimethoxy-silane (PropS-SH) applied on bronze, exhibiting a good protective behaviour in outdoor simulated conditions. The present work deals with X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) and Electron Microscopy (FEG-SEM + FIB (Focused Ion Beam)) characterization of a thin PropS-SH film on bronze. In particular, in order to better understand the influence of alloying elements on coating performance, PropS-SH was studied first on pure Cu and Sn substrates then on bronzes with increasing alloy additions: Cu8Sn as well as a quinary Cu-Sn-Zn-Pb-Sb bronze. Moreover, considering the real application of this coating on historical bronze substrates, previously artificially aged ("patinated") bronze samples were prepared and a comparison between bare and "patinated" quinary bronzes was performed. In the case of coated quinary bronze, the free surface of samples was analysed by High Resolution Photoelectron Spectroscopy using Synchrotron Radiation (HR-SRPES) at ANTARES (Synchrotron SOLEIL), which offers a higher energy and lateral resolution. By compiling complementary spectroscopic and imaging information, a deeper insight into the interactions between the protective coating and the bronze substrate was achieved.

  8. Wireless Information-Theoretic Security in an Outdoor Topology with Obstacles: Theoretical Analysis and Experimental Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dagiuklas Tasos

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a Wireless Information-Theoretic Security (WITS scheme, which has been recently introduced as a robust physical layer-based security solution, especially for infrastructureless networks. An autonomic network of moving users was implemented via 802.11n nodes of an ad hoc network for an outdoor topology with obstacles. Obstructed-Line-of-Sight (OLOS and Non-Line-of-Sight (NLOS propagation scenarios were examined. Low-speed user movement was considered, so that Doppler spread could be discarded. A transmitter and a legitimate receiver exchanged information in the presence of a moving eavesdropper. Average Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR values were acquired for both the main and the wiretap channel, and the Probability of Nonzero Secrecy Capacity was calculated based on theoretical formula. Experimental results validate theoretical findings stressing the importance of user location and mobility schemes on the robustness of Wireless Information-Theoretic Security and call for further theoretical analysis.

  9. Using an Animated Case Scenario Based on Constructivist 5E Model to Enhance Pre-Service Teachers' Awareness of Electrical Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirca, Necati

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study is to get pre-service teachers to develop an awareness of first aid knowledge and skills related to electrical shocking and safety within a scenario based animation based on a Constructivist 5E model. The sample of the study was composed of 78 (46 girls and 32 boys) pre-service classroom teachers from two faculties of…

  10. Exploring Young Children's Performance on and Acceptance of an Educational Scenario-Based Digital Game for Teaching Route-Planning Strategies: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yi-Hui; Hou, Huei-Tse

    2016-01-01

    Researchers suggest that game-based learning (GBL) can be used to facilitate mathematics learning. However, empirical GBL research that targets young children is still limited. The purposes of the study is to develop a scenario-based digital game to promote children's route-planning ability, to empirically explore children's learning performance…

  11. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  12. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  13. Model-based Vestibular Afferent Stimulation: Modular Workflow for Analyzing Stimulation Scenarios in Patient Specific and Statistical Vestibular Anatomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Handler

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Our sense of balance and spatial orientation strongly depends on the correct functionality of our vestibular system. Vestibular dysfunction can lead to blurred vision and impaired balance and spatial orientation, causing a significant decrease in quality of life. Recent studies have shown that vestibular implants offer a possible treatment for patients with vestibular dysfunction. The close proximity of the vestibular nerve bundles, the facial nerve and the cochlear nerve poses a major challenge to targeted stimulation of the vestibular system. Modeling the electrical stimulation of the vestibular system allows for an efficient analysis of stimulation scenarios previous to time and cost intensive in vivo experiments. Current models are based on animal data or CAD models of human anatomy. In this work, a (semi-automatic modular workflow is presented for the stepwise transformation of segmented vestibular anatomy data of human vestibular specimens to an electrical model and subsequently analyzed. The steps of this workflow include (i the transformation of labeled datasets to a tetrahedra mesh, (ii nerve fiber anisotropy and fiber computation as a basis for neuron models, (iii inclusion of arbitrary electrode designs, (iv simulation of quasistationary potential distributions, and (v analysis of stimulus waveforms on the stimulation outcome. Results obtained by the workflow based on human datasets and the average shape of a statistical model revealed a high qualitative agreement and a quantitatively comparable range compared to data from literature, respectively. Based on our workflow, a detailed analysis of intra- and extra-labyrinthine electrode configurations with various stimulation waveforms and electrode designs can be performed on patient specific anatomy, making this framework a valuable tool for current optimization questions concerning vestibular implants in humans.

  14. Greenhouse gas emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production addressing different land conversion scenarios in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Akhir, Nurul Izzati Mat; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Awang, Muhamad

    2017-02-01

    The environmental impacts with regard to agro-based biofuel production have been associated with the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, field GHG emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production associated with land use changes for oil palm plantation development have been evaluated. Three different sites of different land use changes prior to oil palm plantation were chosen; converted land-use (large and small-scales) and logged-over forest. Field sampling for determination of soil N-mineralisation and soil organic carbon (SOC) was undertaken at the sites according to the age of palm, i.e. 21 years (mature oil palms). The field data were incorporated into the estimation of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and the resulting CO 2 -eq emissions as well as for estimation of carbon stock changes. Irrespective of the land conversion scenarios, the nitrous oxide emissions were found in the range of 6.47-7.78 kg N 2 O-N/ha resulting in 498-590 kg CO 2 -eq/ha. On the other hand, the conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantation has resulted in relatively higher GHG emissions (i.e. four times higher and carbon stock reduction by >50%) compared to converted land use (converted rubber plantation) for oil palm development. The conversion from previously rubber plantation into oil palm plantation would increase the carbon savings (20% in increase) thus sustaining the environmental benefits from the palm oil-based biofuel production.

  15. Scenarios for the assessment of urban exposures after radioactive contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, D.N.G.; Guimarães, J.R.D.; Rochedo, E.R.R.

    2015-01-01

    Accidents involving radioactive material are not frequent but may include releases of radionuclides to the air, land or waterways. These releases are usually uncontrollable and may lead to doses in the public in excess of the reference levels established by regulations defined by the national regulatory agencies of each country. Although they had occurred sporadically since the last century, it was observed that, after the emergency phase, the public concern is enhanced when they feel that there is an unpreparedness of authorities responsible for remediation actions, due to the lack of definition of strategies to be adopted in the long term after such events. The aim of this work is to describe reference urban scenarios, considering the characteristics observed in residential and free access areas of urban centers. These scenarios were developed based on the counties surrounding the Brazilian nuclear power plant. Considering the counties within 50 km from the nuclear power plant, nine belong to the state of Rio de Janeiro and seven belong to São Paulo state; the highest population densities were observed in five counties of Rio de Janeiro. Based on the different types of residences and outdoor areas observed in these 16 counties, six reference scenarios for urban areas were developed including areas comprised by four types of residential houses (with low, medium and high shielding building material and houses in a row), apartments in buildings, and park areas with lawn and trees. The characteristics of each of these scenarios were raised through Google Earth images considering 1 km 2 of different locations comprised by each type of area defined. In a next step, the information obtained in each scenario shall be used in computer simulations to characterize the effects and consequences on public exposure of the application of decontamination procedures. (authors)

  16. Injury and illness in college outdoor education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudio, Flavio G; Greenwald, Peter W; Holton, Mark

    2010-12-01

    Many colleges offer outdoor education courses such as rock climbing, kayaking, and mountain biking. Since these sports may be perceived as dangerous, we describe the prevalence of injuries and illnesses in a large, university-based outdoor education program. We also compare composite incident rates from this outdoor program to those of traditional college sports. Cohort of college students participating in either Cornell Outdoor Education (COE) or National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) sports and comparison of incident rates. COE data were prospectively collected in the field; and NCAA data were prospectively collected through the Association's Injury Surveillance System. By definition, a COE injury or illness required follow-up care, prescription medication, or limited course participation. Similarly, a NCAA injury limited further practice or play. Incident rates were calculated as injuries and illnesses per 1000 participant-days (COE) or injuries per 1000 athlete-exposures (NCAA). Included COE courses during 2002-2007 totaled 74 005 participant-days. There were 111 injuries and illnesses, rate = 1.50/1000 participant-days (95% CI 1.24-1.81). The NCAA reported 32 646 899 athlete-exposures during 1988-2004 and 181 476 injuries, rate = 5.56/1000 athlete-exposures (95% CI 5.53-5.58). Compared to COE, the relative risk of injury in NCAA sports was 3.7 (95% CI 3.1-4.5) overall and 3.3 (95% CI 2.8-4.0) after excluding the high-contact sports of football, ice hockey, and wrestling. For COE, mountain biking had the highest incident rate (7.5/1000), which was significantly lower than game injury rates in NCAA football and soccer. The most common injuries for both NCAA and COE were soft-tissue injuries such as sprains and strains. Outdoor education at this university-sponsored program was at least as safe as traditional college sports. Overall, college students were less likely to be injured while participating in COE courses than while participating in NCAA sports

  17. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro

    2015-06-30

    The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.

  18. FttC-Based Fronthaul for 5G Dense/Ultra-Dense Access Network: Performance and Costs in Realistic Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Mazzenga

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available One distinctive feature of the next 5G systems is the presence of a dense/ultra-dense wireless access network with a large number of access points (or nodes at short distances from each other. Dense/ultra-dense access networks allow for providing very high transmission capacity to terminals. However, the deployment of dense/ultra-dense networks is slowed down by the cost of the fiber-based infrastructure required to connect radio nodes to the central processing units and then to the core network. In this paper, we investigate the possibility for existing FttC access networks to provide fronthaul capabilities for dense/ultra-dense 5G wireless networks. The analysis is realistic in that it is carried out considering an actual access network scenario, i.e., the Italian FttC deployment. It is assumed that access nodes are connected to the Cabinets and to the corresponding distributors by a number of copper pairs. Different types of cities grouped in terms of population have been considered. Results focus on fronthaul transport capacity provided by the FttC network and have been expressed in terms of the available fronthaul bit rate per node and of the achievable coverage.

  19. Performance evaluation in competence-based learning model in higher education scenarios using social network: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherina Edith GALLARDO CÓRDOVA

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A research about performance evaluation was conducted in a graduate online course designed in the Based-Competency Model. Facebook was used as a social and interactive tool that would permit sharing information to illustrate various aspects of diverse educational contexts as well as the impacts of the implementation of improvement projects seen from the beneficiaries’ perspective. Case Study was the methodology selected. Postgraduate students got the task to work on certain improvements on learning assessment matters. The educational scenarios were located in Mexico and Colombia. 7 units of analysis were chosen among 34 possible. The findings pointed out that students worked on their contexts in alignment with the stipulated academic competencies. The use of video materials posted and shared using Facebook allowed get a deeper understanding of the way the benefits influenced in each of the educational communities. Besides, these products evidenced students’ appropriate performance. In conclusion, the use of social networks for fortifying performance assessment is highly recommended. Moreover, it is expected that these benefits also influence some of the curricular and instructional design aspects.

  20. HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew

    2017-12-01

    The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.

  1. HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew

    2017-01-01

    The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.

  2. Development of method for evaluating estimated inundation area by using river flood analysis based on multiple flood scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, T.; Takahashi, T.

    2017-12-01

    Non-structural mitigation measures such as flood hazard map based on estimated inundation area have been more important because heavy rains exceeding the design rainfall frequently occur in recent years. However, conventional method may lead to an underestimation of the area because assumed locations of dike breach in river flood analysis are limited to the cases exceeding the high-water level. The objective of this study is to consider the uncertainty of estimated inundation area with difference of the location of dike breach in river flood analysis. This study proposed multiple flood scenarios which can set automatically multiple locations of dike breach in river flood analysis. The major premise of adopting this method is not to be able to predict the location of dike breach correctly. The proposed method utilized interval of dike breach which is distance of dike breaches placed next to each other. That is, multiple locations of dike breach were set every interval of dike breach. The 2D shallow water equations was adopted as the governing equation of river flood analysis, and the leap-frog scheme with staggered grid was used. The river flood analysis was verified by applying for the 2015 Kinugawa river flooding, and the proposed multiple flood scenarios was applied for the Akutagawa river in Takatsuki city. As the result of computation in the Akutagawa river, a comparison with each computed maximum inundation depth of dike breaches placed next to each other proved that the proposed method enabled to prevent underestimation of estimated inundation area. Further, the analyses on spatial distribution of inundation class and maximum inundation depth in each of the measurement points also proved that the optimum interval of dike breach which can evaluate the maximum inundation area using the minimum assumed locations of dike breach. In brief, this study found the optimum interval of dike breach in the Akutagawa river, which enabled estimated maximum inundation area

  3. Tsunami simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai–Tonankai Trough (Japan) based on stochastic rupture scenarios

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mai, Paul Martin; Maruyama, Takuma; Mori, Nobuhito

    2017-01-01

    In this study, earthquake rupture models for future mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai–Tonankai subduction zone are developed by incorporating the main characteristics of inverted source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. These scenario

  4. Preliminary Safety Analysis of the Gorleben Site: Safety Concept and Application to Scenario Development Based on a Site-Specific Features, Events and Processes (FEP) Database - 13304

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moenig, Joerg; Beuth, Thomas; Wolf, Jens [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Theodor-Heuss-Str. 4, D-38122 Braunschweig (Germany); Lommerzheim, Andre [DBE TECHNOLOGY GmbH, Eschenstr. 55, D-31224 Peine (Germany); Mrugalla, Sabine [Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Stilleweg 2, D-30655 Hannover (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    Based upon the German safety criteria, released in 2010 by the Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU), a safety concept and a safety assessment concept for the disposal of heat-generating high-level waste have both been developed in the framework of the preliminary safety case for the Gorleben site (Project VSG). The main objective of the disposal is to contain the radioactive waste inside a defined rock zone, which is called containment-providing rock zone. The radionuclides shall remain essentially at the emplacement site, and at the most, a small defined quantity of material shall be able to leave this rock zone. This shall be accomplished by the geological barrier and a technical barrier system, which is required to seal the inevitable penetration of the geological barrier by the construction of the mine. The safe containment has to be demonstrated for probable and less probable evolutions of the site, while evolutions with very low probability (less than 1 % over the demonstration period of 1 million years) need not to be considered. Owing to the uncertainty in predicting the real evolution of the site, plausible scenarios have been derived in a systematic manner. Therefore, a comprehensive site-specific features, events and processes (FEP) data base for the Gorleben site has been developed. The safety concept was directly taken into account, e.g. by identification of FEP with direct influence on the barriers that provide the containment. No effort was spared to identify the interactions of the FEP, their probabilities of occurrence, and their characteristics (values). The information stored in the data base provided the basis for the development of scenarios. The scenario development methodology is based on FEP related to an impairment of the functionality of a subset of barriers, called initial barriers. By taking these FEP into account in their probable characteristics the reference scenario is derived. Thus, the reference scenario describes a

  5. Research on Integration of Indoor and Outdoor Positioning in Professional Athletic Training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongqing Liu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available GNSS is widely used in professional athletic training as an outdoor location based services, and the indoor positioning technology has gradually flourished in the gymnasium. To keep up with the demand for athletic training in indoor and outdoor environment, integration of indoor and outdoor positioning technology can achieve a seamless indoor/outdoor position solution. The proposed method uses GPS/BEIDOU with IMU-MEMS technology for outdoor positioning and UWB with IMU-MEMS technology for indoor positioning to provide high precision positioning services. The experimental results show that the proposed method can achieve meter level position accuracy in outdoor environment and centimeter level position accuracy in indoor environment, it can provide precise and real-time positioning service for effective athletic training aid.

  6. Formal education in outdoor studies: introduction

    OpenAIRE

    Prince, Heather

    2015-01-01

    Regional cultural perspectives involve outdoor studies in different ways in formal curricula. This section focuses on Western Europe, particularly the UK and Scandinavia, although also has a more international reach in Backman’s consideration of the training of teachers and in place-responsive teaching as described by Mannion and Lynch. ‘Outdoor studies’ is not seen in curricula per se but under various more specialised aspects such as outdoor play, outdoor learning, environmental education, ...

  7. Comparison of 2 resident learning tools-interactive screen-based simulated case scenarios versus problem-based learning discussions: a prospective quasi-crossover cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, Shobana; Khanna, Ashish; Argalious, Maged; Kimatian, Stephen J; Mascha, Edward J; Makarova, Natalya; Nada, Eman M; Elsharkawy, Hesham; Firoozbakhsh, Farhad; Avitsian, Rafi

    2016-02-01

    Simulation-based learning is emerging as an alternative educational tool in this era of a relative shortfall of teaching anesthesiologists. The objective of the study is to assess whether screen-based (interactive computer simulated) case scenarios are more effective than problem-based learning discussions (PBLDs) in improving test scores 4 and 8 weeks after these interventions in anesthesia residents during their first neuroanesthesia rotation. Prospective, nonblinded quasi-crossover study. Cleveland Clinic. Anesthesiology residents. Two case scenarios were delivered from the Anesoft software as screen-based sessions, and parallel scripts were developed for 2 PBLDs. Each resident underwent both types of training sessions, starting with the PBLD session, and the 2 cases were alternated each month (ie, in 1 month, the screen-based intervention used case 1 and the PBLD used case 2, and vice versa for the next month). Test scores before the rotation (baseline), immediately after the rotation (4 weeks after the start of the rotation), and 8 weeks after the start of rotation were collected on each topic from each resident. The effect of training method on improvement in test scores was assessed using a linear mixed-effects model. Compared to the departmental standard of PBLD, the simulation method did not improve either the 4- or 8-week mean test scores (P = .41 and P = .40 for training method effect on 4- and 8-week scores, respectively). Resident satisfaction with the simulation module on a 5-point Likert scale showed subjective evidence of a positive impact on resident education. Screen-based simulators were not more effective than PBLD for education during the neuroanesthesia rotation in anesthesia residency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Erik; Lopez-Iturri, Peio; Azpilicueta, Leyre; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Santesteban, Daniel; Falcone, Francisco

    2016-08-30

    The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities.

  9. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Aguirre

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN. Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities.

  10. Fear of moving outdoors and development of outdoor walking difficulty in older people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rantakokko, Merja; Mänty, Minna; Iwarsson, Susanne

    2009-01-01

    To study which individual characteristics and environmental factors correlate with fear of moving outdoors and whether fear of moving outdoors predicts development of mobility limitation.......To study which individual characteristics and environmental factors correlate with fear of moving outdoors and whether fear of moving outdoors predicts development of mobility limitation....

  11. Outdoor Education for Bereaved Children?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renner, Hans-Georg

    2011-01-01

    For many outdoor education providers, bereaved children and young people at first appear to be a new target audience. A new target audience naturally raises questions of programme planning and can give the provider a pressurised need to succeed: "Do I as the organiser have to develop a whole new programme?", "May I be required to provide some form…

  12. Signature Pedagogies in Outdoor Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Glyn

    2015-01-01

    The new National health and physical education curriculum in Australia includes outdoor education activities as a viable way to achieve intended learning outcomes. However, most health and physical education teacher education courses do not provide a strong focus on the theories, skills and pedagogies that are unique to the effective use of…

  13. Multilayer Controller for Outdoor Vehicle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reske-Nielsen, Anders; Mejnertsen, Asbjørn; Andersen, Nils Axel

    2006-01-01

    A full software and hardware solution has been designed, implemented and tested for control of a small agricultural automatic tractor. The objective was to realise a user-friendly, multi-layer controller architecture for an outdoor platform. The collaborative research work was done as a part of a...

  14. Expanding & strengthening outdoor recreation research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter S. Hopkins

    1971-01-01

    Though the Forest Service has pioneered in outdoor recreation research, the funding for recreation research has been inadequate. Specific needs for research are outlined. There is a need to define recreation and recreation research in terms that busy legislators can understand.

  15. Spectral Efficiency Analysis for Multicarrier Based 4G Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silva, Nuno; Rahman, Muhammad Imadur; Frederiksen, Flemming Bjerge

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, a spectral efficiency definition is proposed. Spectral efficiency for multicarrier based multiaccess techniques, such as OFDMA, MC-CDMA and OFDMA-CDM, is analyzed. Simulations for different indoor and outdoor scenarios are carried out. Based on the simulations, we have discussed ho...

  16. Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Gridded European emission data for projection years 2010, 2015 and 2020 based on the IIASA GAINS NEC scenarios. Teilbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gon, Hugo Denier van der; Visschedijk, Antoon; Brugh, Hans van den [TNO Earth, Environment and Life Sciences, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-06-15

    Projected emissions for selected scenarios for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020 were obtained from the GAINS NEC scenario reports and distributed on a high resolution over Europe using the TNO gridding tools. These emission maps are available as model input in the PAREST project to model the contribution of Europe to air quality in Germany in 2010, 2015 and 2020 (see note Rainer Stern, May 2009). The scenarios have a significant influence on absolute emission levels for the countries that were covered by IIASA GAINS. This suggests that emission changes in countries were no scenarios were available (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) or where only a projection year baseline is available (all non-EU) may be subject to significant changes as well (but these are quite far from Germany). For future projects it is recommended to make simple and transparent scenarios for these other countries, as well as for International Shipping. The change in emissions from the base year 2005 to the projection year 2010 needs to be interpreted with care. This because some methodology differences between 2005 official emission data as used in the PAREST base year 2005 emission set and GAINS 2010 data exist. It is expected that the emission reduction steps towards 2020 are more realistic.

  17. A Phenomenology of Outdoor Education Leader Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Stephanie C.; Lauzon, Lara L.; Meldrum, John T.

    2016-01-01

    Limited qualitative research exists on the experiences of outdoor education leaders. The purpose of this phenomenological study was to explore the job-related experiences of outdoor education leaders within and outside the workplace. Five participants who had experience as outdoor education leaders completed in-depth, one-on-one interviews about…

  18. Benchmarking Outdoor Expeditionary Program Risk Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerts-Brandsma, Lisa; Furman, Nate; Sibthorp, Jim

    2017-01-01

    In 2003, the University of Utah and the National Outdoor Leadership School (NOLS) completed a study that developed a risk management taxonomy in the outdoor adventure industry and assessed how different outdoor expeditionary programs (OEPs) managed risk (Szolosi, Sibthorp, Paisley, & Gookin, 2003). By unifying the language around risk, the…

  19. Hinterbrand Lodge Outdoor Education Center. Program Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dependents Schools (DOD), Washington, DC. European Area.

    Describing Department of Defense Dependents Schools Europe (DODDSEUR) use of Hinterbrand Lodge Outdoor Education Center, this document is directed to sponsors wishing to take groups to Hinterbrand for one or more of the five program options (outdoor education week, teacher weekend, school-designed outdoor education program, administrative faculty…

  20. Outdoor Leadership Skills: A Program Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shooter, Wynn; Sibthorp, Jim; Paisley, Karen

    2009-01-01

    Successful hiring, training, and pairing or grouping of staff requires administrators to consider the relationship between their programs' goals and the specific outdoor leadership skills of individual leaders. Authors have divided outdoor leadership skills into a three-category structure, and models of outdoor leadership have focused on skills…

  1. 9 CFR 3.52 - Facilities, outdoor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Facilities, outdoor. 3.52 Section 3.52 Animals and Animal Products ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH INSPECTION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE ANIMAL... outdoors when the atmospheric temperature falls below 40 °F. (d) Protection from predators. Outdoor housing...

  2. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  3. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  4. Outdoor recreation-related outdoor education: scope of the research (1995-2010) I

    OpenAIRE

    Lynch, Philippa

    2012-01-01

    Article made available with the permission of the New Zealand Journal of Outdoor Education. This article reports on the scope of the New Zealand outdoor recreationrelated outdoor education research literature published from January 1995 to June 2010. It draws on the literature covered by the 2010 Sport and Recreation New Zealand-funded Outdoor Recreation Research Stocktake, which included outdoor education material. This article is divided into two parts, both published in this issue of th...

  5. Modeling emission rates and exposures from outdoor cooking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Rufus; Princevac, Marko; Weltman, Robert; Ghasemian, Masoud; Arora, Narendra K.; Bond, Tami

    2017-09-01

    Approximately 3 billion individuals rely on solid fuels for cooking globally. For a large portion of these - an estimated 533 million - cooking is outdoors, where emissions from cookstoves pose a health risk to both cooks and other household and village members. Models that estimate emissions rates from stoves in indoor environments that would meet WHO air quality guidelines (AQG), explicitly don't account for outdoor cooking. The objectives of this paper are to link health based exposure guidelines with emissions from outdoor cookstoves, using a Monte Carlo simulation of cooking times from Haryana India coupled with inverse Gaussian dispersion models. Mean emission rates for outdoor cooking that would result in incremental increases in personal exposure equivalent to the WHO AQG during a 24-h period were 126 ± 13 mg/min for cooking while squatting and 99 ± 10 mg/min while standing. Emission rates modeled for outdoor cooking are substantially higher than emission rates for indoor cooking to meet AQG, because the models estimate impact of emissions on personal exposure concentrations rather than microenvironment concentrations, and because the smoke disperses more readily outdoors compared to indoor environments. As a result, many more stoves including the best performing solid-fuel biomass stoves would meet AQG when cooking outdoors, but may also result in substantial localized neighborhood pollution depending on housing density. Inclusion of the neighborhood impact of pollution should be addressed more formally both in guidelines on emissions rates from stoves that would be protective of health, and also in wider health impact evaluation efforts and burden of disease estimates. Emissions guidelines should better represent the different contexts in which stoves are being used, especially because in these contexts the best performing solid fuel stoves have the potential to provide significant benefits.

  6. Scenario analysis for estimating the learning rate of photovoltaic power generation based on learning curve theory in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sungjun; Chung, Yanghon; Woo, Chungwon

    2015-01-01

    South Korea, as the 9th largest energy consuming in 2013 and the 7th largest greenhouse gas emitting country in 2011, established ‘Low Carbon Green Growth’ as the national vision in 2008, and is announcing various active energy policies that are set to gain the attention of the world. In this paper, we estimated the decrease of photovoltaic power generation cost in Korea based on the learning curve theory. Photovoltaic energy is one of the leading renewable energy sources, and countries all over the world are currently expanding R and D, demonstration and deployment of photovoltaic technology. In order to estimate the learning rate of photovoltaic energy in Korea, both conventional 1FLC (one-factor learning curve), which considers only the cumulative power generation, and 2FLC, which also considers R and D investment were applied. The 1FLC analysis showed that the cost of power generation decreased by 3.1% as the cumulative power generation doubled. The 2FCL analysis presented that the cost decreases by 2.33% every time the cumulative photovoltaic power generation is doubled and by 5.13% every time R and D investment is doubled. Moreover, the effect of R and D investment on photovoltaic technology took after around 3 years, and the depreciation rate of R and D investment was around 20%. - Highlights: • We analyze the learning effects of photovoltaic energy technology in Korea. • In order to calculate the learning rate, we use 1FLC (one-factor learning curve) and 2FLC methods, respectively. • 1FLC method considers only the cumulative power generation. • 2FLC method considers both cumulative power generation and knowledge stock. • We analyze a variety of scenarios by time lag and depreciation rate of R and D investment

  7. Maximizing hosting capacity of renewable energy sources in distribution networks: A multi-objective and scenario-based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabiee, Abbas; Mohseni-Bonab, Seyed Masoud

    2017-01-01

    Due to the development of renewable energy sources (RESs), maximization of hosting capacity (HC) of RESs has gained significant interest in the existing and future power systems. HC maximization should be performed considering various technical constraints like power flow equations, limits on the distribution feeders' voltages and currents, as well as economic constraints such as the cost of energy procurement from the upstream network and power generation by RESs. RESs are volatile and uncertain in nature. Thus, it is necessary to handle their inherent uncertainties in the HC maximization problem. Wind power is now the fastest growing RESs around the world. Hence, in this paper a stochastic multi-objective optimization model is proposed to maximize the distribution network's HC for wind power and minimize the energy procurement costs in a wind integrated power system. The following objective functions are considered: 1) Cost of the purchased energy from upstream network (to be minimized) and 2) Operation and maintenance cost of wind farms. The proposed model is examined on a standard radial 69 bus distribution feeder and a practical 152 bus distribution system. The numerical results substantiate that the proposed model is an effective tool for distribution network operators (DNOs) to consider both technical and economic aspects of distribution network's HC for RESs. - Highlights: • Hosting capacity of wind power is improved in distribution feeders. • A stochastic multi-objective optimization model is proposed. • Wind power and load uncertainties are modeled by scenario based approach. • Purchased energy cost from upstream network and O&M cost of wind farms are used.

  8. A Study of the Competency of Third Year Medical Students to Interpret Biochemically Based Clinical Scenarios Using Knowledge and Skills Gained in Year 1 and 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gowda, Veena Bhaskar S.; Nagaiah, Bhaskar Hebbani; Sengodan, Bharathi

    2016-01-01

    Medical students build clinical knowledge on the grounds of previously obtained basic knowledge. The study aimed to evaluate the competency of third year medical students to interpret biochemically based clinical scenarios using knowledge and skills gained during year 1 and 2 of undergraduate medical training. Study was conducted on year 3 MBBS…

  9. ICT-Supported, Scenario-Based Learning in Preclinical Veterinary Science Education: Quantifying Learning Outcomes and Facilitating the Novice-Expert Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Jennifer M.; McDonald, Brenda; Schmidt, Adele L.

    2012-01-01

    Problem and/or scenario-based learning is often deployed in preclinical education and training as a means of: (a) developing students' capacity to respond to authentic, real-world problems; (b) facilitating integration of knowledge across subject areas, and; (c) increasing motivation for learning. Six information and communication technology (ICT)…

  10. Heat and fluid flow in accident of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 2. Accident scenario based on thermodynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maruyama, Shigenao

    2012-01-01

    An accident scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 2 is analyzed from the data open to the public. Phase equilibrium process model was introduced that the vapor and water are at saturation point in the vessels. Proposed accident scenario agrees very well with the data of the plant parameters obtained just after the accident. The estimation describes that the rupture time of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) was at 22:50 14/3/2011. The estimation shows that the rupture time of the pressure containment vessel (RCP) was at 7:40 15/3/2011. These estimations are different from the ones by TEPCO, however; many measured evidences show good accordance with the present scenario. (author)

  11. Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle

    2017-05-23

    The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

  12. Temperament Is Associated With Outdoor Free Play in Young Children: A TARGet Kids! Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Julia R; Maguire, Jonathon L; Carsley, Sarah; Abdullah, Kawsari; Chen, Yang; Perrin, Eliana M; Parkin, Patricia C; Birken, Catherine S

    Outdoor free play is important for preschoolers' physical activity, health, and development. Certain temperamental characteristics are associated with obesity, nutrition, and sedentary behaviors in preschoolers, but the relationship between temperament and outdoor play has not been examined. This study examined whether there is an association between temperament and outdoor play in young children. Healthy children aged 1 to 5 years recruited to The Applied Research Group for Kids (TARGet Kids!), a community-based primary care research network, from July 2008 to September 2013 were included. Parent-reported child temperament was assessed using the Childhood Behavior Questionnaire. Outdoor free play and other potential confounding variables were assessed through validated questionnaires. Multivariable linear regression was used to determine the association between temperament and outdoor play, adjusted for potential confounders. There were 3393 children with data on outdoor play. The association between negative affectivity and outdoor play was moderated by sex; in boys, for every 1-point increase in negative affectivity score, mean outdoor play decreased by 4.7 minutes per day. There was no significant association in girls. Surgency was associated with outdoor play; for every 1-point increase in surgency/extraversion, outdoor play increased by 4.6 minutes per day. Young children's temperamental characteristics were associated with their participation in outdoor free play. Consideration of temperament could enhance interventions and strategies to increase outdoor play in young children. Longitudinal studies are needed to elucidate the relationship between children's early temperament and physical activity. Copyright © 2017 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Trends in land and water available for outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd C. Irland; Thomas Rumpf

    1980-01-01

    A data base for assessing the availability of land for outdoor recreation does not exist. Information on related issues such as vandalism, easements, and land posting is scanty. Construction of a data base for assessing land availability should be a high priority for USFS and HCRS, and for SCORP's and the RPA and RCA assessments.

  14. RODOS-based simulation of potential accident scenarios for emergency response management in the vicinity of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walter, H.; Gering, F.; Arnold, K.; Gerich, B.; Heinrich, G.; Welte, U.

    2016-09-15

    In the wake of the Fukushima disaster in March 2011, the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS) started to investigate the potential radiological consequences of a ''Fukushima-like'' accident in a German nuclear power plant and conducted appropriate simulations in 2012. Between the end of 2012 and the end of 2013, the first study was followed by a much more detailed and comprehensive investigation comprising more than 5000 case studies for three nuclear power plant (NPP) sites in Germany. Based on these results the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK) released a new recommendation in March 2014 including an expansion of the current emergency planning zones for nuclear power plants in Germany. The key results of this study with respect to the maximum dimensions of the affected areas where dose criteria may be exceeded are described below. The following results are based on the largest nuclear release scenario ''FKA'' (INES scale 7): - Threshold levels for deterministic effects and high doses (effective doses higher than 1000 mSv) can be reached or exceeded within a distance of about 3 km on average. - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Evacuation'' can be reached or exceeded within a distance of up to 9 to 18 km (adults) and/or up to 14 to 24 km (infants) on average (the indicated interval describes the minimum and maximum levels of the median value at all three NPP sites). - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Sheltering'' can be reached or exceeded within a distance of up to 62 to 80 km (adults) and/or up to 91 to 114 km (infants) on average. - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Stable iodine prophylaxis'' can be exceeded within a distance of up to 24 to 34 km (adults) and/or up to 148 to 161 km (infants and pregnant women) on average.

  15. Description of light-vehicle pre-crash scenarios for safety applications based on vehicle-to-vehicle communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-31

    This report describes pre-crash scenarios that might be addressed by vehicle-to-vehicle communications. The focus is on crashes involving at least 1 light vehicle with a gross vehicle weight rating of 10,000 pounds or less. The 2004-2008 General Esti...

  16. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

    2006-01-01

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  17. Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

    2016-01-01

    Incorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation...

  18. A DYNAMIC PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED TOXICOKINETIC (DPBTK) MODEL FOR SIMULATION OF COMPLEX TOLUENE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS IN HUMANS

    Science.gov (United States)

    A GENERAL PHYSIOLOGICAL AND TOXICOKINETIC (GPAT) MODEL FOR SIMULATION OF COMPLEX TOLUENE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS IN HUMANS. E M Kenyon1, T Colemen2, C R Eklund1 and V A Benignus3. 1U.S. EPA, ORD, NHEERL, ETD, PKB, RTP, NC, USA; 2Biological Simulators, Inc., Jackson MS, USA, 3U.S. EP...

  19. Scenario-based energy efficiency and productivity in China: A non-radial directional distance function analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, H.; Zhou, P.; Zhou, D.Q.

    2013-01-01

    Improving energy efficiency and productivity is one of the most cost-effective ways for achieving the sustainable development target in China. This paper employs non-radial directional distance function approach to empirically investigate energy efficiency and energy productivity by including CO 2 emissions as an undesirable output. Three production scenarios, namely energy conservation (EC), energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER), and energy conservation, emission reduction and economic growth (ECEREG), are specified to assess China's energy efficiency and productivity growth during the period of Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Our empirical results show that there exist substantial differences in China's total-factor energy efficiency and productivity under different scenarios. Under the ECEREG scenario, the national average total-factor energy efficiency score was 0.6306 in 2005–2010, while the national average total-factor energy productivity increased by 0.27% annually during the period. The main driving force for energy productivity growth in China was energy technological change rather than energy efficiency change. - Highlights: • China's regional energy efficiency and productivity in 2005–2010 are evaluated. • Three production scenarios are considered. • Non-radial directional distance function with CO 2 emissions is employed. • Technological change is the main driver for China's energy productivity growth

  20. SU-F-J-208: Prompt Gamma Imaging-Based Prediction of Bragg Peak Position for Realistic Treatment Error Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xing, Y; Macq, B; Bondar, L [Universite catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Janssens, G [IBA, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To quantify the accuracy in predicting the Bragg peak position using simulated in-room measurements of prompt gamma (PG) emissions for realistic treatment error scenarios that combine several sources of errors. Methods: Prompt gamma measurements by a knife-edge slit camera were simulated using an experimentally validated analytical simulation tool. Simulations were performed, for 143 treatment error scenarios, on an anthropomorphic phantom and a pencil beam scanning plan for nasal cavity. Three types of errors were considered: translation along each axis, rotation around each axis, and CT-calibration errors with magnitude ranging respectively, between −3 and 3 mm, −5 and 5 degrees, and between −5 and +5%. We investigated the correlation between the Bragg peak (BP) shift and the horizontal shift of PG profiles. The shifts were calculated between the planned (reference) position and the position by the error scenario. The prediction error for one spot was calculated as the absolute difference between the PG profile shift and the BP shift. Results: The PG shift was significantly and strongly correlated with the BP shift for 92% of the cases (p<0.0001, Pearson correlation coefficient R>0.8). Moderate but significant correlations were obtained for all cases that considered only CT-calibration errors and for 1 case that combined translation and CT-errors (p<0.0001, R ranged between 0.61 and 0.8). The average prediction errors for the simulated scenarios ranged between 0.08±0.07 and 1.67±1.3 mm (grand mean 0.66±0.76 mm). The prediction error was moderately correlated with the value of the BP shift (p=0, R=0.64). For the simulated scenarios the average BP shift ranged between −8±6.5 mm and 3±1.1 mm. Scenarios that considered combinations of the largest treatment errors were associated with large BP shifts. Conclusion: Simulations of in-room measurements demonstrate that prompt gamma profiles provide reliable estimation of the Bragg peak position for