WorldWideScience

Sample records for scenario based outdoor

  1. Scenario based outdoor simulation in pre-hospital trauma care using a simple mannequin model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grier Gareth

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction We describe a system of scenario-based training using simple mannequins under realistic circumstances for the training of pre-hospital care providers. Methods A simple intubatable mannequin or student volunteers are used together with a training version of the equipment used on a routine basis by the pre-hospital care team (doctor + paramedic. Training is conducted outdoors at the base location all year round. The scenarios are led by scenario facilitators who are predominantly senior physicians. Their role is to brief the training team and guide the scenario, results of patient assessment and the simulated responses to interventions and treatment. Pilots, fire-fighters and medical students are utilised in scenarios to enhance realism by taking up roles as bystanders, additional ambulance staff and police. These scenario participants are briefed and introduced to the scene in a realistic manner. After completion of the scenario, the training team would usually be invited to prepare and deliver a hospital handover as they would in a real mission. A formal structured debrief then takes place. Results This training method technique has been used for the training of all London Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (London HEMS doctors and paramedics over the last 24 months. Informal participant feedback suggests that this is a very useful teaching method, both for improving motor skills, critical decision-making, scene management and team interaction. Although formal assessment of this technique has not yet taken place we describe how this type of training is conducted in a busy operational pre-hospital trauma service. Discussion The teaching and maintenance of pre-hospital care skills is essential to an effective pre-hospital trauma care system. Simple mannequin based scenario training is feasible on a day-to-day basis and has the advantages of low cost, rapid set up and turn around. The scope of scenarios is limited only by

  2. Mars base buildup scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  3. Evaluation of Spectrum Usage for GSM band in Indoor and Outdoor Scenario for Dynamic Spectrum Access

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patil, Kishor P.; Barge, Snehal; Skouby, Knud Erik

    2013-01-01

    Current wireless technologies allow limited flexibility in selection of operating frequency of the wireless devices. Cognitive radio is the potential candidate for the efficient spectrum usage in future due to its ability to modify their operational parameters such as frequency, modulation schemes...... measurement results of GSM band including statistical as well as spectral occupancy details obtained from measurement campaign conducted in Pune, India for indoor and outdoor scenarios. The results can be further used as an input for spectrum regulator for considering Cognitive Radio (CR) operation in GSM...

  4. Research Article Evaluation of different signal propagation models for a mixed indoor-outdoor scenario using empirical data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleksandr Artemenko

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we are choosing a suitable indoor-outdoor propagation model out of the existing models by considering path loss and distance as parameters. A path loss is calculated empirically by placing emitter nodes inside a building. A receiver placed outdoors is represented by a Quadrocopter (QC that receives beacon messages from indoor nodes. As per our analysis, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU model, Stanford University Interim (SUI model, COST-231 Hata model, Green-Obaidat model, Free Space model, Log-Distance Path Loss model and Electronic Communication Committee 33 (ECC-33 models are chosen and evaluated using empirical data collected in a real environment. The aim is to determine if the analytically chosen models fit our scenario by estimating the minimal standard deviation from the empirical data.

  5. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information; this incl......; this includes available statistical information and a short survey of emerging technologies. A scenario for Denmark is presented and consequences are discussed....

  6. parameter extraction and estimation based on the pv panel outdoor ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    userpc

    PV panel under varying weather conditions to estimate the PV parameters. Outdoor ... panel parameters. The majority of the methods are based on measurements of the I-V characteristic of the panel (Jack et al., 2015). The main aspect of PV simulation that requires attention ... incident solar irradiance, the cell temperature,.

  7. The latest trends in nature-based outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Ken Cordell

    2008-01-01

    Considerable interest in better understanding current trends in nature-based outdoor recreation followed publication of Richard Louv’s book, Last Child in the Woods, and a recent paper by Oliver R.W. Pergams and Patricia A. Zaradic titled “Evidence for a Fundamental and Pervasive Shift away from Nature-Based Recreation.”

  8. Channel Characteristics and User Body Effects in an Outdoor Urban Scenario at 15 and 28 GHz

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Kun; Gustafson, Carl; Liao, Qingbi

    2017-01-01

    and generate a large fluctuation on the received signal strength of the UE at both 15 GHz and 28 GHz, which is crucial to channel modeling studies at frequencies above 6 GHz. In addition, the user’s body effect on a linear array system in UE is presented, and the main challenges for the future work are also......The effect of a user’s body on channel characteristics for single user downlink transmission in an urban scenario for the 5th generation (5G) systems is investigated with ray-tracing at 15 GHz and 28 GHz. Three different designs of user equipment (UE) antennas are fabricated and integrated...

  9. Map-Based Channel Model for Urban Macrocell Propagation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose F. Monserrat

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of LTE towards 5G has started and different research projects and institutions are in the process of verifying new technology components through simulations. Coordination between groups is strongly recommended and, in this sense, a common definition of test cases and simulation models is needed. The scope of this paper is to present a realistic channel model for urban macrocell scenarios. This model is map-based and takes into account the layout of buildings situated in the area under study. A detailed description of the model is given together with a comparison with other widely used channel models. The benchmark includes a measurement campaign in which the proposed model is shown to be much closer to the actual behavior of a cellular system. Particular attention is given to the outdoor component of the model, since it is here where the proposed approach is showing main difference with other previous models.

  10. View Transformation Based on a Single Outdoor Image

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Hui Zhang

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract An automatic approach for view transformation based on a single outdoor image is proposed in this paper. First, the hierarchical segmentation method is conducted to segment an outdoor image into several meaningful regions and each region is labelled as sky, ground or standing object. Then, different methods are used to estimate each region's depth according to its label. After that, the obtained depth information is utilized to create a new view image after any rotation, translation and pitch. Finally, the image inpainting work for the missing colour region is accomplished using its neighbour's colour. Extensive experiments show the proposed approach not only improves the accuracy of view transformation, but also performs well even for images with occlusion phenomena.

  11. Is outdoor vector control needed for malaria elimination? An individual-based modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lin; Müller, Günter C; Marshall, John M; Arheart, Kristopher L; Qualls, Whitney A; Hlaing, WayWay M; Schlein, Yosef; Traore, Sekou F; Doumbia, Seydou; Beier, John C

    2017-07-03

    Residual malaria transmission has been reported in many areas even with adequate indoor vector control coverage, such as long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). The increased insecticide resistance in Anopheles mosquitoes has resulted in reduced efficacy of the widely used indoor tools and has been linked with an increase in outdoor malaria transmission. There are considerations of incorporating outdoor interventions into integrated vector management (IVM) to achieve malaria elimination; however, more information on the combination of tools for effective control is needed to determine their utilization. A spatial individual-based model was modified to simulate the environment and malaria transmission activities in a hypothetical, isolated African village setting. LLINs and outdoor attractive toxic sugar bait (ATSB) stations were used as examples of indoor and outdoor interventions, respectively. Different interventions and lengths of efficacy periods were tested. Simulations continued for 420 days, and each simulation scenario was repeated 50 times. Mosquito populations, entomologic inoculation rates (EIRs), probabilities of local mosquito extinction, and proportion of time when the annual EIR was reduced below one were compared between different intervention types and efficacy periods. In the village setting with clustered houses, the combinational intervention of 50% LLINs plus outdoor ATSBs significantly reduced mosquito population and EIR in short term, increased the probability of local mosquito extinction, and increased the time when annual EIR is less than one per person compared to 50% LLINs alone; outdoor ATSBs alone significantly reduced mosquito population in short term, increased the probability of mosquito extinction, and increased the time when annual EIR is less than one compared to 50% LLINs alone, but there was no significant difference in EIR in short term between 50% LLINs and outdoor ATSBs. In the village setting with dispersed houses, the

  12. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

  13. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We

  14. Safety Cultures in Water-Based Outdoor Activities in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andkjær, Søren; Arvidsen, Jan

    2015-01-01

    water-based outdoor activities: small boat fishing, sea kayaking, and kite surfing. The theoretical framework used was cultural analysis and the methodological approach was mixed methods using case studies with survey and qualitative interviews. The study indicates that safety is a complex matter...... and that safety culture can be understood as the sum and interaction among six categories. The safety culture is closely related to the activity and differs widely among activities. We suggest a broad perspective be taken on risk management wherein risk and safety can be managed at different levels. Small boat...... fishing is a critical example with obvious critical points according to risk management. We also present suggestions for improving safety in small boat fishing....

  15. Water-Based Outdoor Recreation and Persons with Disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Jo-Ellen

    People with disabilities have long been hindered from participating in outdoor recreation activities such as fishing and boating because of structural and social barriers. Within the past decade, significant progress has been made toward including people with disabilities in outdoor recreation programs and improving access to related facilities…

  16. The effect of a school-based outdoor education program on Visual ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fägerstam (2012) and Remington and Legge (2017), have stated that indoor learning environments such as museums, art galleries and architectural structures are therefore also considered to be outdoor educational environments that can be understood in terms of the school-based outdoor education approach (Hein, ...

  17. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  18. Estimating Outdoor Illumination Conditions Based on Detection of Dynamic Shadows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Claus B.; Lal, Brajesh Behari

    2013-01-01

    The paper proposes a technique for estimation outdoor illumination conditions in terms of sun and sky radiances directly from pixel values of dynamic shadows detected in video sequences produved by a commercial stereo camera. The technique is applied to the rendering of virtual object into the im......The paper proposes a technique for estimation outdoor illumination conditions in terms of sun and sky radiances directly from pixel values of dynamic shadows detected in video sequences produved by a commercial stereo camera. The technique is applied to the rendering of virtual object...

  19. Parameter extraction and estimation based on the PV panel outdoor ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work presents a novel approach to predict the voltage-current (V-I) characteristics of a PV panel under varying weather conditions to estimate the PV parameters. Outdoor performance of the PV module (AP-PM-15) was carried out for several times. The experimental data obtained are validated and compared with the ...

  20. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  1. Designing and implementing outdoor augmented reality system based on ARToolKit

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zongyi; Liu, Yongqi; Chang, Yong; Hu, Shenghua

    2007-06-01

    Augmented Reality (AR) is the overlay of virtual computer graphics images on real world objects, and has many potential applications in industrial operations and academic research. ARToolKit is a C and C++ language software library that allows programmers develop Augmented Reality applications easily. Since the registration method of ARToolKit is based on computer vision, ARToolKit is not suitable for outdoor environment. ARToolKit needs to be improved for outdoor augmented reality. Source code of ARToolkit is improved in this paper. The registration method of vision is kept down, and 3D Electronic compass+RTKGPS is added, so that the registration method of 3D can be carried out not only indoor environment, but also outdoor environment. The paper discusses the framework of outdoor 3D underground pipeline augmented reality system based on ARToolKit.

  2. Parametric Design of Outdoor Broadcasting Studio Based on Schema Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Zhu Li; Zhang Nan; Qing Xiaoying

    2016-01-01

    This paper mainly demonstrates that the schema is an important way for the architect to cognize architecture form logic. It connects schema to algorithm of parametric design in order to seek the “algorithm schema” generation in parametric design of architecture. Meanwhile, this paper discusses the generative process and methods of the “algorithm schema” in parametric design of architecture by describing a case of outdoor broadcasting studio of Hunan Economic Radio. It also reveals the importa...

  3. Comparing on-road real-time simultaneous in-cabin and outdoor particulate and gaseous concentrations for a range of ventilation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leavey, Anna; Reed, Nathan; Patel, Sameer; Bradley, Kevin; Kulkarni, Pramod; Biswas, Pratim

    2017-10-01

    Advanced automobile technology, developed infrastructure, and changing economic markets have resulted in increasing commute times. Traffic is a major source of harmful pollutants and consequently daily peak exposures tend to occur near roadways or while travelling on them. The objective of this study was to measure simultaneous real-time particulate matter (particle numbers, lung-deposited surface area, PM2.5, particle number size distributions) and CO concentrations outside and in-cabin of an on-road car during regular commutes to and from work. Data was collected for different ventilation parameters (windows open or closed, fan on, AC on), whilst travelling along different road-types with varying traffic densities. Multiple predictor variables were examined using linear mixed-effects models. Ambient pollutants (NOx, PM2.5, CO) and meteorological variables (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, dew point) explained 5-44% of outdoor pollutant variability, while the time spent travelling behind a bus was statistically significant for PM2.5, lung-deposited SA, and CO (adj-R2 values = 0.12, 0.10, 0.13). The geometric mean diameter (GMD) for outdoor aerosol was 34 nm. Larger cabin GMDs were observed when windows were closed compared to open (b = 4.3, p-value = <0.01). When windows were open, cabin total aerosol concentrations tracked those outdoors. With windows closed, the pollutants took longer to enter the vehicle cabin, but also longer to exit it. Concentrations of pollutants in cabin were influenced by outdoor concentrations, ambient temperature, and the window/ventilation parameters. As expected, particle number concentrations were impacted the most by changes to window position/ventilation, and PM2.5 the least. Car drivers can expect their highest exposures when driving with windows open or the fan on, and their lowest exposures during windows closed or the AC on. Final linear mixed-effects models could explain between 88 and 97% of cabin pollutant

  4. Parametric Design of Outdoor Broadcasting Studio Based on Schema Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhu Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper mainly demonstrates that the schema is an important way for the architect to cognize architecture form logic. It connects schema to algorithm of parametric design in order to seek the “algorithm schema” generation in parametric design of architecture. Meanwhile, this paper discusses the generative process and methods of the “algorithm schema” in parametric design of architecture by describing a case of outdoor broadcasting studio of Hunan Economic Radio. It also reveals the importance of “algorithm schema” for the cognition and architectural form logic generation.

  5. Scenario Based E-Learning in Electrical Engineering Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambunan, Hamonangan; Dalimunte, Amirhud; Silitonga, Marsangkap

    2017-01-01

    The scenario based e-learning in Electrical Engineering Education Learning (EEEL) was developed by covering the scope and characteristics of all subjects and the competence unit of graduates in the field of pedagogy, professional, social and personality, with url addresed http://jpte-ft-unimed.edu20.org. The scenario incorporates the concept of…

  6. Research on response spectrum of dam based on scenario earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoliang; Zhang, Yushan

    2017-10-01

    Taking a large hydropower station as an example, the response spectrum based on scenario earthquake is determined. Firstly, the potential source of greatest contribution to the site is determined on the basis of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Secondly, the magnitude and epicentral distance of the scenario earthquake are calculated according to the main faults and historical earthquake of the potential seismic source zone. Finally, the response spectrum of scenario earthquake is calculated using the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relations. The response spectrum based on scenario earthquake method is less than the probability-consistent response spectrum obtained by PSHA method. The empirical analysis shows that the response spectrum of scenario earthquake considers the probability level and the structural factors, and combines the advantages of the deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methods. It is easy for people to accept and provide basis for seismic engineering of hydraulic engineering.

  7. Scenario-based Training : Director’s Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Bosch, K. van den; Meyer, J.J.C.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology offers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We

  8. The effect of a school-based outdoor education program on Visual ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this research is to determine the effect of an education programme developed based on the school-based outdoor education approach on the academic achievement of visual arts teachers, as well as their self-efficacy beliefs for using museums and the natural environment. The aim is likewise to explore the ...

  9. Facilitating Place-Based Learning in Outdoor Informal Environments with Mobile Computers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Heather Toomey; Land, Susan M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper advocates for place-based education to guide research and design for mobile computers used in outdoor informal environments (e.g., backyards, nature centers and parks). By bringing together research on place-based education with research on location awareness, we developed three design guidelines to support learners to develop robust…

  10. Designing and Evaluating Conative Game-Based Learning Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schønau-Fog, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    It is an essential prerequisite to design for motivation in game-based learning applications, tools and activities. However, how is it possible to design and evaluate motivational game-based learning scenarios in a systematic process-oriented manner based on conation and player engagement? While...

  11. Outdoor W-Band Hybrid Photonic Wireless Link Based on an Optical SFP+ Module

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rommel, Simon; Rodríguez Páez, Juan Sebastián; Chorchos, Łukasz

    2016-01-01

    This letter proposes aW-band hybrid photonic wireless link based on a commercial SFP+ module and experimentally demonstrates its performance. Using a free running laser as local oscillator and heterodyne photonic upconversion, good frequency stability is achieved. Outdoor wireless transmission ov...

  12. Development of outdoor luminescence imaging for drone-based PV array inspection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benatto, Gisele Alves dos Reis; Thorsteinsson, Sune; Riedel, Nicholas

    2017-01-01

    This work has the goal to perform outdoor defect detection imaging that will be used in a fast, accurate and automatic drone-based survey system for PV power plants. The imaging development focuses on techniques that do not require electrical contact, permitting automatic drone inspections...

  13. Development of outdoor luminescence imaging for drone-based PV array inspection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benatto, Gisele Alves dos Reis; Thorsteinsson, Sune; Riedel, Nicholas

    2017-01-01

    This work has the goal to perform outdoor defect detection imaging that will be used in a fast, accurate and automatic drone-based survey system for PV power plants. The imaging development focuses on techniques that do not require electrical contact, permitting automatic drone inspections...... new perspective in large-scale PV inspection....

  14. Seamless Indoor/Outdoor Positioning Handover for Location-Based Services in Streamspin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Rene; Wind, Rico; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

    2009-01-01

    the delivery of truly ubiquitous location-based services by integrating GPS and Wi-Fi location fingerprinting. The paper puts focus on key aspects of the seamless handover between outdoor to indoor positioning. Several different handover solutions are presented,and their applicability is evaluated with respect...

  15. Measurements of MIMO Indoor Channels at 1800 MHz with Multiple Indoor and Outdoor Base Stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaldén Niklas

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes several configurations for multiple base stations in indoor MIMO systems and compares their performance. The results are based on channel measurements realized with a MIMO testbed. The receiver was moved along several routes and floors on an office building. Both outdoor and indoor locations are considered for the transmitters or base stations, which allow the analysis of not only indoor but also outdoor-to-indoor environment. The use of 2 base stations with different system level combinations of the two is analyzed. We show that the configuration with base station selection provides almost as good performance as a full water-filling scheme when the 2 base stations are placed at different locations. Also the spatial correlation properties for the different configurations are analyzed and the importance of considering path loss when evaluating capacity is highlighted.

  16. A scenario based approach for flexible resource loading under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wullink, Gerhard; Gademann, Noud; Hans, Elias W.; van Harten, Aart

    2003-01-01

    Order acceptance decisions in manufacture-to-order environments are often made based on incomplete or uncertain information. To promise reliable due dates and to manage resource capacity adequately, resource capacity loading is an indispensable supporting tool. We propose a scenario based approach

  17. An ontology for automated scenario-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Bosch, K. van den; Neerincx, M.A.; Meyer, J.J.Ch.

    2014-01-01

    An intelligent system for automated scenario-based training (SBT) needs knowledge about the training domain, events taking place in the simulated environment, the behaviour of the participating characters, and teaching strategies for effective learning. This knowledge base should be theoretically

  18. Relationship Between Air Quality and Outdoor Exercise Behavior in China: a Novel Mobile-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Liang; Zhu, Li; Xu, Yaping; Lyu, Jiaying; Imm, Kellie; Yang, Lin

    2017-08-01

    Based on data collected from an exercise app, the study aims to provide empirical evidence on the relationship between air quality and patterns of outdoor exercise in China. Objective outdoor exercise data spanning 160 days were collected from 153 users of an exercise app, Tulipsport in China. Each exercise mode (running, biking, and walking, respectively) was organized into five air quality categories based on Air Quality Index (AQI): excellent, good, mild pollution, moderate pollution, and serious pollution. Key parameters of each app user were calculated and analyzed: the total number of exercise bouts, the average duration, and the average distance of each exercise mode in each air quality category. Multivariate analyses of variance indicate that the users were less likely to participate in outdoor running, biking, and walking (F = 24.16, p air pollution increased. However, there is no difference in terms of average distance and duration of exercise across different air pollution categories. People's participation in outdoor exercise is impeded by air pollution severity, but they stick to their exercise routines once exercise is initiated. Although people should protect themselves from health damages caused by exercising under pollution, the decreases in physical activity associated with air pollution may also pose an indirect risk to public health. The interactive relationship between air quality, exercise, and health warrants more empirical and interdisciplinary explorations.

  19. Confirmation of the Conditional Outdoor Leadership Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Tim; Priest, Simon

    1991-01-01

    Responses of 75 expert outdoor leaders from Canada and the United States concerning leadership in 12 hypothetical backpacking scenarios provided partial support for a theory that predicted probability of leadership style (democratic, autocratic, or abdicratic) based on favorability of conditions, task orientation, and relationship orientation.…

  20. Modern Policyholder Preferences and Scenario-Based Projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel

    This PhD thesis covers aspects of policyholder preferences and life insurance projections based on economic scenarios. Both topics are relevant to policyholders as well as to the life insurance and pension industry—and equally important, the topics give rise to a variety of interesting mathematical...... to the policyholder. From an industry and accounting perspective, scenario-based projections allow for valuation of life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments. In this thesis, we focus on economic scenarios because they ensure a low mathematical complexity even...... is important for designing competitive life insurance and savings products and for providing sound advice to policyholders. Preferences come in many shapes and forms. In this thesis, we focus on separation of risk and time preferences and preferences for smooth investment. The latter is modeled with something...

  1. Increasing Interest in Cognitive Psychology Using Scenario-Based Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cormack, Sophie

    2014-01-01

    Students often perceive cognitive psychology as an abstract and difficult subject with little intrinsic interest. When student feedback identified problems with the traditional essay assessment in a cognitive psychology module, action research led to the development of a forensic scenario-based assessment which successfully increased student…

  2. Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian

    2009-01-01

    subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking...

  3. Generating objects: a method bases on documents and scenarios ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper proposes an original method based on Froms and Scenarios analysis in the information systems( IS) Engineering domain with advantage of producing a conceptual object- oriented schema of the future IS. The advantages of our suggested approach consists in using simple elements (forms, information flowchart ...

  4. Vision-Based Real-Time Traversable Region Detection for Mobile Robot in the Outdoors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Fucheng; Zhu, Xiaorui; He, Chao

    2017-09-13

    Environment perception is essential for autonomous mobile robots in human-robot coexisting outdoor environments. One of the important tasks for such intelligent robots is to autonomously detect the traversable region in an unstructured 3D real world. The main drawback of most existing methods is that of high computational complexity. Hence, this paper proposes a binocular vision-based, real-time solution for detecting traversable region in the outdoors. In the proposed method, an appearance model based on multivariate Gaussian is quickly constructed from a sample region in the left image adaptively determined by the vanishing point and dominant borders. Then, a fast, self-supervised segmentation scheme is proposed to classify the traversable and non-traversable regions. The proposed method is evaluated on public datasets as well as a real mobile robot. Implementation on the mobile robot has shown its ability in the real-time navigation applications.

  5. Using narrative-based design scaffolds within a mobile learning environment to support learning outdoors with young children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seely, Brian J.

    This study aims to advance learning outdoors with mobile devices. As part of the ongoing Tree Investigators design-based research study, this research investigated a mobile application to support observation, identification, and explanation of the tree life cycle within an authentic, outdoor setting. Recognizing the scientific and conceptual complexity of this topic for young children, the design incorporated technological and design scaffolds within a narrative-based learning environment. In an effort to support learning, 14 participants (aged 5-9) were guided through the mobile app on tree life cycles by a comic-strip pedagogical agent, "Nutty the Squirrel", as they looked to explore and understand through guided observational practices and artifact creation tasks. In comparison to previous iterations of this DBR study, the overall patterns of talk found in this study were similar, with perceptual and conceptual talk being the first and second most frequently coded categories, respectively. However, this study coded considerably more instances of affective talk. This finding of the higher frequency of affective talk could possibly be explained by the relatively younger age of this iteration's participants, in conjunction with the introduced pedagogical agent, who elicited playfulness and delight from the children. The results also indicated a significant improvement when comparing the pretest results (mean score of .86) with the posttest results (mean score of 4.07, out of 5). Learners were not only able to recall the phases of a tree life cycle, but list them in the correct order. The comparison reports a significant increase, showing evidence of increased knowledge and appropriation of scientific vocabulary. The finding suggests the narrative was effective in structuring the complex material into a story for sense making. Future research with narratives should consider a design to promote learner agency through more interactions with the pedagogical agent and a

  6. Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  7. Development of an Outdoor Temperature-Based Control Algorithm for Residential Mechanical Ventilation Control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Less, Brennan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Walker, Iain [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Tang, Yihuan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Smart ventilation systems use controls to ventilate more during those periods that provide either an energy or IAQ advantage (or both) and less during periods that provide a dis advantage. Using detailed building simulations, this study addresses one of the simplest and lowest cost types of smart controllers —outdoor temperature- based control. If the outdoor temperature falls below a certain cut- off, the fan is simply turned off. T he main principle of smart ventilation used in this study is to shift ventilation from time periods with large indoor -outdoor temperature differences, to periods where these differences are smaller, and their energy impacts are expected to be less. Energy and IAQ performance are assessed relative to a base case of a continuously operated ventilation fan sized to comply with ASHRAE 62.2-2013 whole house ventilation requirements. In order to satisfy 62.2-2013, annual pollutant exposure must be equivalent between the temperature controlled and continuous fan cases. This requires ventilation to be greater than 62.2 requirements when the ventilation system operates. This is achieved by increasing the mechanical ventilation system air flow rates.

  8. Developing Science Process Skills and Problem Solving Abilities Based on Outdoor Learning in Junior High School

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Wahyuni

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to develop science process skills and problem-solving abilities based on outdoor learning in junior high school. This study uses a mixed method design embedded experimental models. Data was performed in the qualitative and quantitative analysis. Qualitative data analysis is used to determine the science process skills while quantitative data analysis is used to determine the increasing problem-solving ability by using normalized gain (N gain formula. The results show that the science process skills developed at every phase comprise of making observations, formulating hypotheses, experiment, create data, classify and analyze the data, formulating its conclusions, communicate, and apply the concepts and make predictions obtained by the average value of 75.33 in the good category. While the problem-solving ability of students based on outdoor learning also increased by 0.58 in the medium category. The conclusions of this research show that the application of outdoor learning can be teacher use as an alternative to learning, so it is quite effective in developing science process skills and problem-solving abilities.

  9. Assessing magnitude probability distribution through physics-based rupture scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hok, Sébastien; Durand, Virginie; Bernard, Pascal; Scotti, Oona

    2016-04-01

    When faced with complex network of faults in a seismic hazard assessment study, the first question raised is to what extent the fault network is connected and what is the probability that an earthquake ruptures simultaneously a series of neighboring segments. Physics-based dynamic rupture models can provide useful insight as to which rupture scenario is most probable, provided that an exhaustive exploration of the variability of the input parameters necessary for the dynamic rupture modeling is accounted for. Given the random nature of some parameters (e.g. hypocenter location) and the limitation of our knowledge, we used a logic-tree approach in order to build the different scenarios and to be able to associate them with a probability. The methodology is applied to the three main faults located along the southern coast of the West Corinth rift. Our logic tree takes into account different hypothesis for: fault geometry, location of hypocenter, seismic cycle position, and fracture energy on the fault plane. The variability of these parameters is discussed, and the different values tested are weighted accordingly. 64 scenarios resulting from 64 parameter combinations were included. Sensitivity studies were done to illustrate which parameters control the variability of the results. Given the weight of the input parameters, we evaluated the probability to obtain a full network break to be 15 %, while single segment rupture represents 50 % of the scenarios. These rupture scenario probability distribution along the three faults of the West Corinth rift fault network can then be used as input to a seismic hazard calculation.

  10. Innovative Educational Scenarios in Game Based Teaching and Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Smeureanu

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The didactical game can be considered part of an educational scenario in teaching and learning. This article aims to show how fundamental concepts from the economicmathematical modeling area can be visualized, how to organize knowledge in coherent scenarios, presented in an educational game manner, to gain the attention and influence students' spirit of competition. At the same time, benefitting from the 3D visualizations, the graphical interfaces for navigating in multidimensional spaces or projections are defined and thus imagination used for mental models construction is stimulated and human intuition is capitalized in the process of knowledge discovery, assisted by computer with analytic algorithms type. Exploration becomes a game feature and can be pursued both numerically and visually. 3D environments give realism to visualizations that are found in games, facilitating realimaginary relationship throughout the game and enhancing learning motivation. The innovative character of teaching is given by the method in which the teacher creates his own educational scenario by considering specific learning objectives, age particularities of students, time and space-related resources, the technical requirements of the game and the evaluation method. The paper makes several references to such projects, developed by the authors and implemented in working with students. Game based on demonstration (using simulation, modelling or visualization coordinates users to obtain relevant information; the multiple representations of knowledge are so used and compared through a multitude of examples.

  11. MARCOnI-ConvNet-Based MARker-Less Motion Capture in Outdoor and Indoor Scenes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elhayek, A; de Aguiar, E; Jain, A; Thompson, J; Pishchulin, L; Andriluka, M; Bregler, C; Schiele, B; Theobalt, C

    2017-03-01

    Marker-less motion capture has seen great progress, but most state-of-the-art approaches fail to reliably track articulated human body motion with a very low number of cameras, let alone when applied in outdoor scenes with general background. In this paper, we propose a method for accurate marker-less capture of articulated skeleton motion of several subjects in general scenes, indoors and outdoors, even from input filmed with as few as two cameras. The new algorithm combines the strengths of a discriminative image-based joint detection method with a model-based generative motion tracking algorithm through an unified pose optimization energy. The discriminative part-based pose detection method is implemented using Convolutional Networks (ConvNet) and estimates unary potentials for each joint of a kinematic skeleton model. These unary potentials serve as the basis of a probabilistic extraction of pose constraints for tracking by using weighted sampling from a pose posterior that is guided by the model. In the final energy, we combine these constraints with an appearance-based model-to-image similarity term. Poses can be computed very efficiently using iterative local optimization, since joint detection with a trained ConvNet is fast, and since our formulation yields a combined pose estimation energy with analytic derivatives. In combination, this enables to track full articulated joint angles at state-of-the-art accuracy and temporal stability with a very low number of cameras. Our method is efficient and lends itself to implementation on parallel computing hardware, such as GPUs. We test our method extensively and show its advantages over related work on many indoor and outdoor data sets captured by ourselves, as well as data sets made available to the community by other research labs. The availability of good evaluation data sets is paramount for scientific progress, and many existing test data sets focus on controlled indoor settings, do not feature much variety

  12. Outdoor allergens.

    OpenAIRE

    Rogers, Christine Anne; Burge, Harriet A

    2000-01-01

    Outdoor allergens are an important part of the exposures that lead to allergic disease. Understanding the role of outdoor allergens requires a knowledge of the nature of outdoor allergen-bearing particles, the distributions of their source, and the nature of the aerosols (particle types, sizes, dynamics of concentrations). Primary sources for outdoor allergens include vascular plants (pollen, fern spores, soy dust), and fungi (spores, hyphae). Nonvascular plants, algae, and arthropods contrib...

  13. Air filter materials, outdoor ozone and building-related symptoms in the BASE study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, I S H; Mendell, M J; Mirer, A G; Apte, M G

    2008-04-01

    Used ventilation air filters have been shown to reduce indoor environmental quality and worker performance and increase symptoms, with effects stronger after reaction of filters with ozone. We analyzed data from the US EPA Building Assessment Survey and Evaluation (BASE) study to determine if ozone and specific filter media have interactive effects on building-related symptoms (BRS). We analyzed a subset of 34 buildings from the BASE study of 100 US office buildings to determine the separate and joint associations of filter medium [polyester/synthetic (PS) or fiberglass (FG)] and outdoor ozone concentration (above/below the median, 67.6 microg/m(3)) with BRS. Using logistic regression models and general estimating equations, we estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals for the association of filter medium, ozone, and filter medium x ozone with BRS. Relative to FG + low ozone, PS alone or high ozone alone, were each significantly (P risk proportion (ARP) estimates indicate that removing both risk factors might, given certain assumptions, reduce BRS by 26-62%. These findings suggest possible adverse health consequences from chemical interactions between outdoor ozone and PS filters in buildings. Results need confirmation before recommending changes in building operation. However, if additional research confirms causal relationships, ARP estimates indicate that appropriate filter selection may substantially reduce BRS in buildings, especially in high-ozone areas. The results indicate that a better understanding of how filters interact with their environment is needed. While the mechanism is unknown and these findings need to be replicated, they indicate that the joint risk of BRS from polyester/synthetic filters and outdoor ozone above 67.6 microg/m(3) is much greater than the risk from each alone. These findings suggest potential reductions in BRS from appropriate selection of ventilation filter media or implementing strategies to reduce ozone

  14. Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

  15. Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

  16. Fuzzy Logic-Based Scenario Recognition from Video Sequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Elbaşi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, video surveillance and monitoring have gained importance because of security and safety concerns. Banks, borders, airports, stores, and parking areas are the important application areas. There are two main parts in scenario recognition: Low level processing, including moving object detection and object tracking, and feature extraction. We have developed new features through this work which are RUD (relative upper density, RMD (relative middle density and RLD (relative lower density, and we have used other features such as aspect ratio, width, height, and color of the object. High level processing, including event start-end point detection, activity detection for each frame and scenario recognition for sequence of images. This part is the focus of our research, and different pattern recognition and classification methods are implemented and experimental results are analyzed. We looked into several methods of classification which are decision tree, frequency domain classification, neural network-based classification, Bayes classifier, and pattern recognition methods, which are control charts, and hidden Markov models. The control chart approach, which is a decision methodology, gives more promising results than other methodologies. Overlapping between events is one of the problems, hence we applied fuzzy logic technique to solve this problem. After using this method the total accuracy increased from 95.6 to 97.2.

  17. A Simple Outdoor Environment Obstacle Detection Method Based on Information Fusion of Depth and Infrared

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaguang Zhu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In allusion to the existing low recognition rate and robustness problem in obstacle detection; a simple but effective obstacle detection algorithm of information fusion in the depth and infrared is put forward. The scenario is segmented by the mean-shift algorithm and the pixel gradient of foreground is calculated. After pretreatment of edge detection and morphological operation, the depth information and infrared information are fused. The characteristics of depth map and infrared image in edge detection are used for the raised method, the false rate of detection is reduced, and detection precision is improved. Since the depth map and infrared image are not affected by natural sunlight, the influence on obstacle recognition due to the factors such as light intensity and shadow is effectively reduced and the robustness of the algorithm is also improved. Experiments indicate that the detection algorithm of information fusion can accurately identify the small obstacle in the view and the accuracy of obstacle recognition will not be affected by light. Hence, this method has great significance for mobile robot or intelligent vehicles on obstacle detection in outdoor environment.

  18. Creative Classrooms through Game-Based Role-Play Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjedde, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    There is a well-defined need for developing creativity and innovation in the classroom through fostering creative learning environments and innovative learning approaches. In a research project one approach towards a more creative classroom has been explored in a secondary school. The project...... with learning opportunities that challenge and develop their ability towards creative problem solving, as well as developing empathy and cultural understanding. This paper will present preliminary results from the research project that through a mixed methods approach has explored the implementation of games......-based role-play scenarios as a learning tool that can integrate the curriculum in meaningful context, and how it has impacted on the interaction and creative learning experiences in the class....

  19. Model-Based Military Scenario Management for Defence Capability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gori, Ronnie; Chen, Pin; Pozgay, Angela

    2004-01-01

    .... This paper describes initial work towards the development of an information model that links scenario and capability related information, and the results of capability analysis and experimentation...

  20. The Efficacy of Digital Case Scenario versus Paper Case Scenario on Clinical Reasoning in Problem Based Learning: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Zarea Gavgani Vahideh; Hazrati Hakime; Ghojazadeh Mortaza

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: In medical and clinical education, creating critical thinking and promoting clinical reasoning abilities are the highest aims and results of education. The main aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of digital case scenarios versus print/paper case scenarios on clinical reasoning in problem-based learning (PBL). If a study used the multimedia scenario case interventions, video case scenarios and online-guided scenarios as digital case PBL, we would cons...

  1. Towards Agent-Based Scenario Development for Strategic Decision Support

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mensonides, Maarten; Huisman, Bob; Dignum, V.

    2008-01-01

    Scenario planning is a method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting that future. However, most scenarios, being mostly stories, lack validation, dynamism and fail to acknowledge all relations between actors,

  2. Scenario-based approach adopted in the ELECTRA project for deriving innovative control room functionality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinelli, Mattia; Heussen, Kai; Prostejovsky, Alexander Maria

    2017-01-01

    . The study outlines the methodology adopted, which is based on the cognitive work analysis framework, to provide an overview of the most interesting scenarios and to summarise the requirements analysis results. In order to derive required control room functionality, a set of relevant control room scenarios...... have been identified based on the Web-of-Cells control concept. The authors considered scenarios that challenge traditional control schemes, scenarios that caused major failures (i.e. blackouts), and scenarios that can be expected to appear in the future. For each scenario, information concerning...

  3. Outdoor allergens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burge, H A; Rogers, C A

    2000-01-01

    Outdoor allergens are an important part of the exposures that lead to allergic disease. Understanding the role of outdoor allergens requires a knowledge of the nature of outdoor allergen-bearing particles, the distributions of their source, and the nature of the aerosols (particle types, sizes, dynamics of concentrations). Primary sources for outdoor allergens include vascular plants (pollen, fern spores, soy dust), and fungi (spores, hyphae). Nonvascular plants, algae, and arthropods contribute small numbers of allergen-bearing particles. Particles are released from sources into the air by wind, rain, mechanical disturbance, or active discharge mechanisms. Once airborne, they follow the physical laws that apply to all airborne particles. Although some outdoor allergens penetrate indoor spaces, exposure occurs mostly outdoors. Even short-term peak outdoor exposures can be important in eliciting acute symptoms. Monitoring of airborne biological particles is usually by particle impaction and microscopic examination. Centrally located monitoring stations give regional-scale measurements for aeroallergen levels. Evidence for the role of outdoor allergens in allergic rhinitis is strong and is rapidly increasing for a role in asthma. Pollen and fungal spore exposures have both been implicated in acute exacerbations of asthma, and sensitivity to some fungal spores predicts the existence of asthma. Synergism and/or antagonism probably occurs with other outdoor air particles and gases. Control involves avoidance of exposure (staying indoors, preventing entry of outdoor aerosols) as well as immunotherapy, which is effective for pollen but of limited effect for spores. Outdoor allergens have been the subject of only limited studies with respect to the epidemiology of asthma. Much remains to be studied with respect to prevalence patterns, exposure and disease relationships, and control. PMID:10931783

  4. Adapting smartphone-based photoplethysmograpy to suboptimal scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Agundez, Augusto; Dutz, Tim; Goebel, Stefan

    2017-02-01

    Photoplethysmography (PPG) is an optical technique used to measure the heart rate (HR) and other cardiovascular variables by analyzing volume changes in the microvascular bed of tissue. At the moment, smartphone users can already measure their HR using PPG applications that use the smartphone's built-in camera. However, available applications are unreliable when artifacts are present, such as those caused by movement, finger pressure, or ambient light changes. This contribution aims to analyze the limitations of a smartphone-based PPG algorithm capable of measuring N-N intervals when such artifacts are present by comparing it to a 2-lead electrocardiography (ECG). By using a Bandpass filter and a zero-crossing detection algorithm on a PPG signal captured at 800  ×  600 pixels and 30 Hz, we have designed an approach capable of assessing N-N intervals when movement artifacts are present. An evaluation performed on n  =  31 users shows our algorithm is capable of measuring N-N intervals with an average relative error of 9.23 ms, when compared to a 2-lead ECG. Our approach proves the reliability of smartphone-based photoplethysmography to measure N-N intervals, even under the presence of movement artifacts, and opens the door for its future use in remote diagnosis scenarios.

  5. Place-Based Curriculum Making: Devising a Synthesis between Primary Geography and Outdoor Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, Anne M.

    2016-01-01

    Outdoor learning provides children with an opportunity to experience the interdisciplinary nature of the real world through interactions with each other and the planet. Geographical enquiry involves exploring the outdoors in an investigative capacity. Space, place and sustainability are three core concepts in primary geography, although…

  6. The Outdoor Leadership Handbook. A Manual for Leaders of Land-based Outdoor Pursuits in the Pacific Northwest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Paul

    The handbook is intended for three leadership groups: leaders of land-based trips in the Pacific Northwest with youth or adults for an agency such as a city recreation department, experienced leaders, and leaders conducting high-adventure programs for juvenile delinquents. The handbook contains current information regarding: (1) trip planning and…

  7. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    The key to a company's survival lies in its ability to adapt itself to an ever changing world. A company's knowledge and competencies must be fitted to the requirements of the environment in which it operates. However, the kind of competencies that ensures a company's survival are not acquired...... in time to do something different (Schwartz, 1991). Scenarios are known to offer greater advantages over other forecasting methods when uncertainty is high and historical relationships shaky (Fahey & Randall, 1998). Scenario analysis therefore seems better in tune with the current business environment......, which perhaps explains the increasing popularity of scenario analysis in business and other organizations. An institutionalised usage of scenario planning can shape a company's ability to act rather than to react in a volatile environment. Emerging weak signals (i.e. indicators of change) can...

  8. Developing a Mobile Learning Management System for Outdoors Nature Science Activities Based on 5E Learning Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Ah-Fur; Lai, Horng-Yih; Chuang, Wei-Hsiang; Wu, Zih-Heng

    2015-01-01

    Traditional outdoor learning activities such as inquiry-based learning in nature science encounter many dilemmas. Due to prompt development of mobile computing and widespread of mobile devices, mobile learning becomes a big trend on education. The main purpose of this study is to develop a mobile-learning management system for overcoming the…

  9. Socio-Technical Dimensions of an Outdoor Mobile Learning Environment: A Three-Phase Design-Based Research Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land, Susan M.; Zimmerman, Heather Toomey

    2015-01-01

    This design-based research project examines three iterations of Tree Investigators, a learning environment designed to support science learning outdoors at an arboretum and nature center using mobile devices (iPads). Researchers coded videorecords and artifacts created by children and parents (n = 53) to understand how both social and…

  10. Comparisons between physics-based, engineering, and statistical learning models for outdoor sound propagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Carl R; Reznicek, Nathan J; Wilson, D Keith; Pettit, Chris L; Nykaza, Edward T

    2016-05-01

    Many outdoor sound propagation models exist, ranging from highly complex physics-based simulations to simplified engineering calculations, and more recently, highly flexible statistical learning methods. Several engineering and statistical learning models are evaluated by using a particular physics-based model, namely, a Crank-Nicholson parabolic equation (CNPE), as a benchmark. Narrowband transmission loss values predicted with the CNPE, based upon a simulated data set of meteorological, boundary, and source conditions, act as simulated observations. In the simulated data set sound propagation conditions span from downward refracting to upward refracting, for acoustically hard and soft boundaries, and low frequencies. Engineering models used in the comparisons include the ISO 9613-2 method, Harmonoise, and Nord2000 propagation models. Statistical learning methods used in the comparisons include bagged decision tree regression, random forest regression, boosting regression, and artificial neural network models. Computed skill scores are relative to sound propagation in a homogeneous atmosphere over a rigid ground. Overall skill scores for the engineering noise models are 0.6%, -7.1%, and 83.8% for the ISO 9613-2, Harmonoise, and Nord2000 models, respectively. Overall skill scores for the statistical learning models are 99.5%, 99.5%, 99.6%, and 99.6% for bagged decision tree, random forest, boosting, and artificial neural network regression models, respectively.

  11. Evaluating Outdoor Water Use Demand under Changing Climatic and Demographic Conditions: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanta, L.

    2016-12-01

    Outdoor water use for landscape and irrigation constitutes a significant end use in residential water demand. In periods of water shortages, utilities may reduce garden demands by implementing irrigation system audits, rebate programs, local ordinances, and voluntary or mandatory water use restrictions. Because utilities do not typically record outdoor and indoor water uses separately, the effects of policies for reducing garden demands cannot be readily calculated. The volume of water required to meet garden demands depends on the housing density or lawn size, type of vegetation, climatic conditions, efficiency of garden irrigation systems, and consumer water-use behaviors. Many existing outdoor demand estimation methods are deterministic and do not include consumer responses to conservation campaigns. In addition, mandatory restrictions may have a substantial impact on reducing outdoor demands, but the effectiveness of mandatory restrictions depends on the timing and the frequency of restrictions, in addition to the distribution of housing density and consumer types within a community. This research investigates a garden end-use model by coupling an agent-based modeling approach and a mechanistic-stochastic water demand model to create a methodology for estimating garden demand and evaluating demand reduction policies. The garden demand model is developed for two water utilities, using a diverse data sets, including residential customer billing records, records of outdoor conservation programs, frequency and type of mandatory water use restrictions, lot size distribution, population growth, and climatic data. A set of garden irrigation parameter values, which are based on the efficiency of irrigation systems and irrigation habits of consumers, are determined for a set of conservation ordinances and restrictions. The model parameters are then validated using customer water usage data from the participating water utilities. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for

  12. Scenario-Based Spoken Interaction with Virtual Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Hazel; Jack, Mervyn A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a CALL approach which integrates software for speaker independent continuous speech recognition with embodied virtual agents and virtual worlds to create an immersive environment in which learners can converse in the target language in contextualised scenarios. The result is a self-access learning package: SPELL (Spoken…

  13. Evaluation of outdoor human thermal sensation of local climate zones based on long-term database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, János; Skarbit, Nóra; Gál, Tamás

    2017-09-01

    This study gives a comprehensive picture on the diurnal and seasonal general outdoor human thermal sensation levels in different urban quarters based on long-term (almost 3 years) data series from urban and rural areas of Szeged, Hungary. It is supplemented with a case study dealing with an extreme heat wave period which is more and more frequent in the last decades in the study area. The intra-urban comparison is based on a thermal aspect classification of the surface, namely, the local climate zone (LCZ) system, on an urban meteorological station network and on the utilization of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) comfort index with categories calibrated to the local population. The selected stations represent sunlit areas well inside the LCZ areas. The results show that the seasonal and annual average magnitudes of the thermal load exerted by LCZs in the afternoon and evening follow their LCZ numbers. It is perfectly in line with the LCZ concept originally concentrating only on air temperature (T air) differences between the zones. Our results justified the subdivision of urban areas into LCZs and give significant support to the application possibilities of the LCZ concept as a broader term covering different thermal phenomena.

  14. Designing, Developing and Implementing a Software Tool for Scenario Based Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Geoff; Taylor, Mathew; Stewart, Terry; Blackburn, Greg; Jinks, Audrey; Razdar, Bahareh; Holmes, Paul; Marastoni, Enrique

    2012-01-01

    The pedagogical value of problem-based and inquiry-based learning activities has led to increased use of this approach in many courses. While scenarios or case studies were initially presented to learners as text-based material, the development of modern software technology provides the opportunity to deliver scenarios as e-learning modules,…

  15. Scenario-Based Digital Forensics Challenges in Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Miranda Lopez

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of digital forensics is to extract information to answer the 5Ws (Why, When, Where, What, and Who from the data extracted from the evidence. In order to achieve this, most digital forensic processes assume absolute control of digital evidence. However, in a cloud environment forensic investigation, this is not always possible. Additionally, the unique characteristics of cloud computing create new technical, legal and architectural challenges when conducting a forensic investigation. We propose a hypothetical scenario to uncover and explain the challenges forensic practitioners face during cloud investigations. Additionally, we also provide solutions to address the challenges. Our hypothetical case scenario has shown that, in the long run, better live forensic tools, development of new methods tailored for cloud investigations and new procedures and standards are indeed needed. Furthermore, we have come to the conclusion that forensic investigations biggest challenge is not technical but legal.

  16. Base Station Antenna Pattern Distortion in Practical Urban Deployment Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

    2014-01-01

    the intrinsic propagation mechanisms of the urban environment (far-field) can contribute to the distortion of the radiation pattern observed in a practical deployment scenario, especially when comparing it to the antenna pattern provided by the manufacturer and typically measured in free space. This paper......-field distortion has been evaluated by means of finite integration technique (FIT) simulations, while the far-field effects have been analyzed through intelligent ray tracing (IRT)....

  17. Thin-Film LSCs Based on PMMA Nanohybrid Coatings: Device Optimization and Outdoor Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. El-Bashir

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study concerns the design optimization of thin-film luminescent solar concentrators (TLSCs based on polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA/silica nanohybrid films doped with coumarin dyestuffs specialized in coloring plastics. Two designs of TLSCs had been prepared and characterized. The first consists of a transparent nanohybrid layer coated on a fluorescent PMMA substrate. The second design is the ordinary configuration in which fluorescent nanohybrid layer is coated on a transparent PMMA substrate. The investigation of the spectral properties and efficiency parameters recommended the best solar energy conversion efficiency for the second design. The outdoor performance of optimized TLSC was also evaluated under clear sky conditions of Riyadh city, and the hourly values of the optical efficiency, ηopt, were calculated for one year. The best performance was achieved in summer since the short circuit current for PV cell was doubled after being attached to TLSC and the value of ηopt reached 40% which is higher than other values recorded before due to the abundant solar energy potential in the Arabian Peninsula.

  18. Optimization of automated external defibrillator deployment outdoors: An evidence-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahan, Benjamin; Jabre, Patricia; Karam, Nicole; Misslin, Renaud; Bories, Marie-Cécile; Tafflet, Muriel; Bougouin, Wulfran; Jost, Daniel; Beganton, Frankie; Beal, Guillaume; Pelloux, Patricia; Marijon, Eloi; Jouven, Xavier

    2016-11-01

    The benefits of available automatic external defibrillators (AEDs) for out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCAs) are well known, but strategies for their deployment outdoors remain somewhat arbitrary. Our study sought to assess different strategies for AED deployment. All OHCAs in Paris between 2000 and 2010 were prospectively recorded and geocoded. A guidelines-based strategy of placing an AED in locations where more than one OHCA had occurred within the past five years was compared to two novel strategies: a grid-based strategy with a regular distance between AEDs and a landmark-based strategy. The expected number of AEDs necessary and their median (IQR) distance to the nearest OHCA were assessed for each strategy. Of 4176 OHCAs, 1372 (33%) occurred in public settings. The first strategy would result in the placement of 170 AEDs, with a distance to OHCA of 416 (180-614) m and a continuous increase in the number of AEDS. In the second strategy, the number of AEDs and their distance to the closest OHCA would change with the grid size, with a number of AEDs between 200 and 400 seeming optimal. In the third strategy, median distances between OHCAs and AEDs would be 324m if placed at post offices (n=195), 239 at subway stations (n=302), 137 at bike-sharing stations (n=957), and 142 at pharmacies (n=1466). This study presents an original evidence-based approach to strategies of AED deployment to optimize their number and location. This rational approach can estimate the optimal number of AEDs for any city. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Earthquake scenarios based on lessons from the past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stella; Aleksandrova, Irena; Popova, Iliana

    2010-05-01

    Earthquakes are the most deadly of the natural disasters affecting the human environment; indeed catastrophic earthquakes have marked the whole human history. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The implementation of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on intervention following the disasters. The territory of Bulgaria (situated in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula) represents a typical example of high seismic risk area. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. At the beginning of the 20-the century (from 1901 to 1928) five earthquakes with magnitude larger than or equal to MS=7.0 occurred in Bulgaria. However, no such large earthquakes occurred in Bulgaria since 1928, which may induce non-professionals to underestimate the earthquake risk. The 1986 earthquake of magnitude MS=5.7 occurred in the central northern Bulgaria (near the town of Strazhitsa) is the strongest quake after 1928. Moreover, the seismicity of the neighboring countries, like Greece, Turkey, former Yugoslavia and Romania (especially Vrancea-Romania intermediate earthquakes), influences the seismic hazard in Bulgaria. In the present study deterministic scenarios (expressed in seismic intensity) for two Bulgarian cities (Rouse and Plovdiv) are presented. The work on

  20. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  1. Investigating the Efficiency of Scenario Based Learning and Reflective Learning Approaches in Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hursen, Cigdem; Fasli, Funda Gezer

    2017-01-01

    The main purpose of this research is to investigate the efficiency of scenario based learning and reflective learning approaches in teacher education. The impact of applications of scenario based learning and reflective learning on prospective teachers' academic achievement and views regarding application and professional self-competence…

  2. Development of crash imminent test scenarios for Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-04-01

    This report identifies crash imminent test scenarios based on common pre-crash scenarios for integrated vehicle-based safety systems that alert the driver of a light vehicle or a heavy truck to an impending rear-end, lane change, or run-off-road cras...

  3. "The Strawberry Caper": Using Scenario-Based Problem Solving to Integrate Middle School Science Topics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonda, Rebecca L.; DeHart, Kyle; Ashman, Tia-Lynn; Legg, Alison Slinskey

    2015-01-01

    Achieving a deep understanding of the many topics covered in middle school biology classes is difficult for many students. One way to help students learn these topics is through scenario-based learning, which enhances students' performance. The scenario-based problem-solving module presented here, "The Strawberry Caper," not only…

  4. Outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. M. Bowker; Ashley Askew; H. Ken Cordell; John C. Bergstrom

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsBy 2060, the number of southern adults participating in each of 10 different popular outdoor recreation activities is projected to increase. Depending on future demographic, economic, land use, and population changes, the activity demonstrating the least growth in participants is hunting (8–25 percent). The activity projected to...

  5. Multilingual and Multicultural Task-Based Learning Scenarios: A Pilot Study from the MAGICC Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez, Inma; Pérez-Cavana, María Luisa

    2015-01-01

    In this article we report on the results of a pilot study on the use of task-based multilingual and multicultural professional scenarios for higher education teachers and learners at BA and MA level. The scenarios reflect new learning outcomes and assessment criteria for the presently under-conceptualised domain of communication in multilingual…

  6. Lifetime Effective Dose Assessment Based on Background Outdoor Gamma Exposure in Chihuahua City, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luevano-Gurrola, Sergio; Perez-Tapia, Angelica; Pinedo-Alvarez, Carmelo; Carrillo-Flores, Jorge; Montero-Cabrera, Maria Elena; Renteria-Villalobos, Marusia

    2015-01-01

    Determining ionizing radiation in a geographic area serves to assess its effects on a population’s health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial distribution of the background environmental outdoor gamma dose rates in Chihuahua City. This study also estimated the annual effective dose and the lifetime cancer risks of the population of this city. To determine the outdoor gamma dose rate in air, the annual effective dose and the lifetime cancer risk, 48 sampling points were randomly selected in Chihuahua City. Outdoor gamma dose rate measurements were carried out by using a Geiger-Müller counter. Outdoor gamma dose rates ranged from 113 to 310 nGy·h−1. At the same sites, 48 soil samples were taken to obtain the activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K and to calculate their terrestrial gamma dose rates. Radioisotope activity concentrations were determined by gamma spectrometry. Calculated gamma dose rates ranged from 56 to 193 nGy·h−1. Results indicated that the lifetime effective dose of the inhabitants of Chihuahua City is on average 19.8 mSv, resulting in a lifetime cancer risk of 0.001. In addition, the mean of the activity concentrations in soil were 52, 73 and 1097 Bq·kg−1, for 226Ra, 232Th and 40K, respectively. From the analysis, the spatial distribution of 232Th, 226Ra and 40K is to the north, to the north-center and to the south of city, respectively. In conclusion, the natural background gamma dose received by the inhabitants of Chihuahua City is high and mainly due to the geological characteristics of the zone. From the radiological point of view, this kind of study allows us to identify the importance of manmade environments, which are often highly variable and difficult to characterize. PMID:26437425

  7. Committed dose assessment based on background outdoor gamma exposure in Chihuahua City, Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luevano G, S.; Perez T, A.; Pinedo A, C.; Renteria V, M. [Universidad Autonoma de Chihuahua, Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecologia, Perif. Francisco R. Almada Km 1, 31415 Chihuahua, Chih. (Mexico); Carrillo F, J.; Montero C, M. E., E-mail: mrenteria@uach.mx [Centro de Investigacion en Materiales Avanzados, Miguel de Cervantes 120, 31136 Chihuahua, Chih. (Mexico)

    2015-10-15

    Full text: Determining ionizing radiation in a geographic area serves to assess its effects on populations health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial distribution of the background environmental outdoor gamma dose rates in Chihuahua City. This study also estimated the committed dose and the lifetime cancer risks of the population of this city. To determine the outdoor gamma dose rate in air, annual effective dose, and the lifetime cancer risk, 48 sampling points were randomly selected along the Chihuahua City. Outdoor gamma dose rate measurements were carried out by using a Geiger-Muller counter. At the same sites, 48 soil samples were taken to obtain the activity concentrations of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th, {sup 40}K and their terrestrial gamma dose rates. Radioisotope activity concentrations were determined by gamma spectrometry. Outdoor gamma dose rates ranged from 56 to 193 n Gy h{sup -1}. Results indicated that lifetime effective dose to inhabitants of Chihuahua City is in average of 19.8 mSv, resulting in a lifetime cancer risk of 0.001. In addition, the mean of activity concentrations in soil were 51.8, 73.1, and 1096.5 Bq kg{sup -1}, of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K, respectively. From the analysis of the spatial distribution of {sup 232}Th, {sup 226}Ra, and {sup 40}K is to north, to north-center, and to south of city, respectively. In conclusion, natural background gamma dose received by inhabitants of Chihuahua City is high and mainly due to geological characteristics of the zone. (Author)

  8. Lifetime Effective Dose Assessment Based on Background Outdoor Gamma Exposure in Chihuahua City, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Luevano-Gurrola

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Determining ionizing radiation in a geographic area serves to assess its effects on a population’s health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial distribution of the background environmental outdoor gamma dose rates in Chihuahua City. This study also estimated the annual effective dose and the lifetime cancer risks of the population of this city. To determine the outdoor gamma dose rate in air, the annual effective dose and the lifetime cancer risk, 48 sampling points were randomly selected in Chihuahua City. Outdoor gamma dose rate measurements were carried out by using a Geiger-Müller counter. Outdoor gamma dose rates ranged from 113 to 310 nGy·h−1. At the same sites, 48 soil samples were taken to obtain the activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K and to calculate their terrestrial gamma dose rates. Radioisotope activity concentrations were determined by gamma spectrometry. Calculated gamma dose rates ranged from 56 to 193 nGy·h−1. Results indicated that the lifetime effective dose of the inhabitants of Chihuahua City is on average 19.8 mSv, resulting in a lifetime cancer risk of 0.001. In addition, the mean of the activity concentrations in soil were 52, 73 and 1097 Bq·kg−1, for 226Ra, 232Th and 40K, respectively. From the analysis, the spatial distribution of 232Th, 226Ra and 40K is to the north, to the north-center and to the south of city, respectively. In conclusion, the natural background gamma dose received by the inhabitants of Chihuahua City is high and mainly due to the geological characteristics of the zone. From the radiological point of view, this kind of study allows us to identify the importance of manmade environments, which are often highly variable and difficult to characterize.

  9. Accessing technical data bases using STDS: A collection of scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardgrave, W. T.

    1975-01-01

    A line by line description is given of sessions using the set-theoretic data system (STDS) to interact with technical data bases. The data bases contain data from actual applications at NASA Langley Research Center. The report is meant to be a tutorial document that accompanies set processing in a network environment.

  10. Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario simulations. These include a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees as well as a projection based on the RCP8.5 scenario. With these scenarios projected impact...

  11. Formal analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented specifications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Popova, V.; Sharpanskykh, O.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract This paper presents various formal techniques for analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on specifications of organizations. Organizational specifications describe (prescribe) ordering and timing relations on organizational processes, modes of use of resources, allocations

  12. Mannich Bases: An Important Pharmacophore in Present Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suman Bala

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mannich bases are the end products of Mannich reaction and are known as beta-amino ketone carrying compounds. Mannich reaction is a carbon-carbon bond forming nucleophilic addition reaction and is a key step in synthesis of a wide variety of natural products, pharmaceuticals, and so forth. Mannich reaction is important for the construction of nitrogen containing compounds. There is a number of aminoalkyl chain bearing Mannich bases like fluoxetine, atropine, ethacrynic acid, trihexyphenidyl, and so forth with high curative value. The literature studies enlighten the fact that Mannich bases are very reactive and recognized to possess potent diverse activities like anti-inflammatory, anticancer, antifilarial, antibacterial, antifungal, anticonvulsant, anthelmintic, antitubercular, analgesic, anti-HIV, antimalarial, antipsychotic, antiviral activities and so forth. The biological activity of Mannich bases is mainly attributed to α, β-unsaturated ketone which can be generated by deamination of hydrogen atom of the amine group.

  13. Scenario-based Requirements Elicitation in a Pain-teletreatment Application

    OpenAIRE

    Widya, I.A.; Bults, Richard G.A.; Huis in 't Veld, M.H.A.; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam Marie Rosé; Shishkov, Boris; Cordeiro, J.; Ranchordas, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a way to elicit requirements in the domain of eHealth, in particular telemedicine treatment, that is in alignment with the evidence based working practice in medicine. In collaboration with ICT developers, medical professionals co-shape the intended system, which has to support the telemedicine application. These professionals develop a scenario and provide feedback to the subsequent requirements elicitation process which is based on the developed scenario. We propose a mi...

  14. Scenario-based design space exploration of MPSoCs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Stralen, P.; Pimentel, A.

    2010-01-01

    Early design space exploration (DSE) is a key ingredient in system-level design of MPSoC-based embedded systems. The state of the art in this field typically still explores systems under a single, fixed application workload. In reality, however, the applications are concurrently executing and

  15. Six scenarios of exploiting an ontology based, mobilized learning environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kismihók, G.; Szabó, I.; Vas, R.

    2012-01-01

    In this article, six different exploitation possibilities of an educational ontology based, mobilized learning management system are presented. The focal point of this system is the educational ontology model. The first version of this educational ontology model serves as a foundation for curriculum

  16. Product design pattern based on big data-driven scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conggang Yu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses about new product design patterns in the big data era, gives designer a new rational thinking way, and is a new way to understand the design of the product. Based on the key criteria of the product design process, category, element, and product are used to input the data, which comprises concrete data and abstract data as an enlargement of the criteria of product design process for the establishment of a big data-driven product design pattern’s model. Moreover, an experiment and a product design case are conducted to verify the feasibility of the new pattern. Ultimately, we will conclude that the data-driven product design has two patterns: one is the concrete data supporting the product design, namely “product–data–product” pattern, and the second is based on the value of the abstract data for product design, namely “data–product–data” pattern. Through the data, users are involving themselves in the design development process. Data and product form a huge network, and data plays a role of connection or node. So the essence of the design is to find a new connection based on element, and to find a new node based on category.

  17. Based on user interest level of modeling scenarios and browse content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yang

    2017-08-01

    User interest modeling is the core of personalized service, taking into account the impact of situational information on user preferences, the user behavior days of financial information. This paper proposes a method of user interest modeling based on scenario information, which is obtained by calculating the similarity of the situation. The user's current scene of the approximate scenario set; on the "user - interest items - scenarios" three-dimensional model using the situation pre-filtering method of dimension reduction processing. View the content of the user interested in the theme, the analysis of the page content to get each topic of interest keywords, based on the level of vector space model user interest. The experimental results show that the user interest model based on the scenario information is within 9% of the user's interest prediction, which is effective.

  18. Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on the SRES B2 Scenario, 1990-2100

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 Scenario, 1990-2100, were based on the UN 1998...

  19. Scenario Content, Outcome and Process - developing and testing methodologies for goal-based socio-technical scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wangel, Josefin (KTH Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies); Gustafsson, Stina (KTH Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology)

    2011-07-01

    This report presents methodological developments and findings from the ongoing research project SitCit. SitCit is a cross-disciplinary research project in which the challenge of sustainable urban development is taken on through a futures studies approach. Rather than starting in the problematic present, SitCit takes its starting point in the desired future. Through developing scenarios of more sustainable futures and connecting these to the present, the project aims at identifying and innovating potentials for a less environmentally burdening urban life. Energy use and CO{sub 2} are the main focus, but through a complementary qualitative sustainability assessment other aspects of sustainability are also included. The scenario methodology is comprised of three separate but interconnected parts. In the Scenario Content the question what could change is at the centre, and the potential changes are sought in the physical, institutional, and socio-cultural structures of buildings, transport and citizens' everyday life. Fundamental to the Scenario Content is an iterative identification of objects and actors of change. The Scenario Outcome focuses on the question of how much energy use could be decreased through these changes. This is estimated through modelling the scenario contents in terms of energy usage systems. In the Scenario Process the question of how the changes could be achieved is explored through elaborating the identified actors into a dimension of governance in the scenarios. Figure 1 presents an overview of the methodology and its integral parts. In SitCit, the methodology is developed through three scenario studies focusing on green mobility in Bromma, ICT solutions in Soedermalm and energy efficiency through refurbishment in Rinkeby-Kista. These three Stockholm City Districts all have their specific urban morphological and demographical characteristics and are chosen for contrast. This report presents the study focusing on green mobility

  20. A Scenario-Based Technique for Developing SOA Technical Governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    18  Figure 5:  CBDi-SAE SOA Governance Framework 19  Figure 6:  IBM SOA Governance and Management Method 20  Figure 7:  ITIL Core Framework 21...organizations, even if they are not SOA specific, such as the Information Technol- ogy Infrastructure Library ( ITIL ) [10] These frameworks can be very...based on a standard or a widely recommended approach such as ITIL , one custom-built for the organization, or a hybrid of all of the preceding. For

  1. Integrating of scenario-based simulation into radiology education to improve critical thinking skills

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abuzaid MM

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available MM Abuzaid, W Elshami Medical Diagnostic Imaging Department, College of Health Sciences, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates Introduction: For many years, conventional radiographic films have been used for radiology education. Nevertheless, advances in imaging modalities, image quality, and the number of images produced by various methods have seen a move toward digital formats. Certainly, a patient’s case has a significant value in medical education; it can transfer theoretical knowledge to real experiences. The aim of this study is to evaluate the value of scenario-based simulations in radiology education and their impact on professional learning outcomes.Materials and methods: Patient scenarios were collected and converted to digital teaching files, each supported by clinical history, anatomy illustration, as well as medical and radiological investigation. The scenarios were presented online to radiology professionals for 6 months. At the end of the study, the scenarios were evaluated regarding design, content, and their role in improving critical thinking.Results: Twenty-two scenarios were published online covering various radiology areas. Two hundred and thirty-eight radiology professionals were invited, and 84% participated in the evaluation process. Each participant completed an average of 13 scenarios with an approximate time of 23 minutes for each. The majority of participants agreed or strongly agreed that the scenarios were well designed (94%, were appropriate to their level of knowledge (70%, and helped them in critical thinking and in understanding similar cases (79%. Conclusion: The integration of scenario-based simulations in radiology education led to a positive impact on learning outcomes, formative interactive learning, and filling the gap between theory and practice. Moreover, it promoted critical thinking skills and allowed radiology professionals to demonstrate their knowledge of similar cases

  2. Choice of experimental venue matters in ecotoxicology studies: Comparison of a laboratory-based and an outdoor mesocosm experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikó, Zsanett; Ujszegi, János; Gál, Zoltán; Imrei, Zoltán; Hettyey, Attila

    2015-10-01

    The heavy application of pesticides and its potential effects on natural communities has attracted increasing attention to inadvertent impacts of these chemicals. Toxicologists conventionally use laboratory-based tests to assess lethal concentrations of pesticides. However, these tests often do not take into account indirect, interactive and long-term effects, and tend to ignore different rates of disintegration in the laboratory and under natural conditions. Our aim was to investigate the importance of the experimental venue for ecotoxicology tests. We reared tadpoles of the agile frog (Rana dalmatina) in the laboratory and in outdoor mesocosms and exposed them to three initial concentrations of a glyphosate-based herbicide (0, 2 and 6.5 mg a.e./L glyphosate), and to the presence or absence of caged predators (dragonfly larvae). The type of experimental venue had a large effect on the outcome: The herbicide was less lethal to tadpoles reared in outdoor mesocosms than in the laboratory. Further, while the herbicide had a negative effect on development time and on body mass in the laboratory, tadpoles exposed to the herbicide in mesocosms were larger at metamorphosis and developed faster in comparison to those reared in the absence of the herbicide. The effect of the herbicide on morphological traits of tadpoles also differed between the two venues. Finally, in the presence of the herbicide, tadpoles tended to be more active and to stay closer to the bottom of laboratory containers, while tadpole behaviour shifted in the opposite direction in outdoor mesocosms. Our results demonstrate major discrepancies between results of a classic laboratory-based ecotoxicity test and outcomes of an experiment performed in outdoor mesocosms. Consequently, the use of standard laboratory tests may have to be reconsidered and their benefits carefully weighed against the difficulties of performing experiments under more natural conditions. Tests validating experimentally estimated

  3. Can we establish relationship between outdoor air ventilation and health based on the published epidemiological data?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carrer, Paolo; Wargocki, Pawel; Fanetti, Annaclara

    2015-01-01

    exposures at various levels of ventilation were no characterized. It was observed that available data have many limitations, such as insufficient statistical power, incomplete data on the strength of pollution sources, diversity and variability of ventilation rates, at which effects have been seen...... exposures affecting health. It is concluded, that currently available epidemiological data do not provide sound basis for outdoor air ventilation requirements that can be universally applicable in different public and residential buildings to protect against health risks. They show minimum rates at which...

  4. Designing a scenario-based syllabus for young learners

    OpenAIRE

    Simpson, Adam John

    2013-01-01

    As we tentatively proceed into this brave new teaching world of the 21st century, much debate is centering on the effective teaching of English to young learners. Key to this discussion has been the role of the young learner syllabus. While this article makes reference to the teaching of English to young learners in an ESL context based on documentation developed within the European Union, the issues raised are by no means particularly specific to this region nor merely to the teaching of the...

  5. Model-based Evaluation of Location-based Relaying Policies in a Realistic Mobile Indoor Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen; Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein; Madsen, Tatiana Kozlova

    2012-01-01

    For WLAN systems in which relaying is exploited for improving throughput performance, node mobility and in- formation collection delays can have a significant impact on the performance of a relay selection scheme. This paper analyzes this influence on the decision process using a previously...... developed Markov Chain model for a realistic indoor scenario that is based on ray-tracing enriched measurements from the WHERE2 project. These results are furthermore compared to results obtained using an idealistic path loss model, and it is shown that the performance impact of node mobility...

  6. A first analysis of 3-bunches and 1-bunch scenario for the SPL based Proton Driver

    CERN Document Server

    Aiba, M

    2008-01-01

    The SPL based proton driver for a future neutrino factory has been proposed and studied. The use of the SPL proton driver requires an accumulator and an compressor for forming the output time structure required for the neutrino factory. While the number of bunches per burst could be varied in a range of 1-6, it is preferred to be as small as possible for the muon accelerators and storage ring. Thus a scenario of fewer number of bunches is discussed in this note based on the results from the study of 6-bunches scenario. The new scenario enables to have two operation modes, 3-bunches and 1-bunch, using the same accumulator and compressor. Although not everything is covered in this first analysis, the 3-bunches and 1-bunch scenario seems achievable.

  7. Agent-based simulation of alternative classroom evacuation scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Runjiao Liu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the growing number of emergency accidents occurring around students, evacuation issues have become significantly important for both school officials and architects. Simply following construction codes cannot ensure that a building׳s layout is suitable for evacuation behaviors; therefore, to discover the suitable planning schemes, we have introduced an agent-based simulation model via Netlogo to investigate the interrelationships between evacuation efficiency and classroom layouts. Before conducting modeling experiments, both the simulation structure and the sensitivity to its parameter settings are examined by validation research and sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, to demonstrate the importance of conducting fire drills with students, two different types of behavior rules are designed to reflect the distinctive characteristics of students evacuating without instructions and students evacuating in good order. The general comparison results show us that the classroom layout with two exits shortens students׳ evacuation time, and the premeditated behavior rules, meaning that students who follow preset instructions to arrange their activities, not only escape faster but also have some advantages in ensuring their safety during the evacuation process. Moreover, at the end of this paper, several methods of improving this simulation model are proposed for more complex research in the future.

  8. Determining optimal clothing ensembles based on weather forecasts, with particular reference to outdoor winter military activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabito, Marco; Pavlinic, Daniela Z; Crisci, Alfonso; Capecchi, Valerio; Orlandini, Simone; Mekjavic, Igor B

    2011-07-01

    Military and civil defense personnel are often involved in complex activities in a variety of outdoor environments. The choice of appropriate clothing ensembles represents an important strategy to establish the success of a military mission. The main aim of this study was to compare the known clothing insulation of the garment ensembles worn by soldiers during two winter outdoor field trials (hike and guard duty) with the estimated optimal clothing thermal insulations recommended to maintain thermoneutrality, assessed by using two different biometeorological procedures. The overall aim was to assess the applicability of such biometeorological procedures to weather forecast systems, thereby developing a comprehensive biometeorological tool for military operational forecast purposes. Military trials were carried out during winter 2006 in Pokljuka (Slovenia) by Slovene Armed Forces personnel. Gastrointestinal temperature, heart rate and environmental parameters were measured with portable data acquisition systems. The thermal characteristics of the clothing ensembles worn by the soldiers, namely thermal resistance, were determined with a sweating thermal manikin. Results showed that the clothing ensemble worn by the military was appropriate during guard duty but generally inappropriate during the hike. A general under-estimation of the biometeorological forecast model in predicting the optimal clothing insulation value was observed and an additional post-processing calibration might further improve forecast accuracy. This study represents the first step in the development of a comprehensive personalized biometeorological forecast system aimed at improving recommendations regarding the optimal thermal insulation of military garment ensembles for winter activities.

  9. The application of One Health concept to an outdoor problem-based learning activity for veterinary students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. Tengku Rinalfi Putra

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The One Health (OH approach, which seeks to bring together human and animal health, is particularly suited to the effective management of zoonotic diseases across both sectors. To overcome professional silos, OH needs to be taught at the undergraduate level. Here, we describe a problem-based learning activity using the OH approach that was conducted outdoors for 3rd-year veterinary students in Malaysia. Materials and Methods: A total of 118 students, divided into two groups, completed the activity which spanned 1½ days at a deer park adjacent to a wilderness area. Students were asked to evaluate the activity using an online survey that had quantitative and qualitative components. Results: Response rate was 69.5%. The activity was rated excellent by 69.5% and good by 30.4%. Levels of satisfaction were high on a range of criteria. 97.5% of students intended to take action in their studies as a result of what they had learned. Conclusions: Delivery of an outdoor problem-based learning activity using OH approach was very successful in terms of participation, knowledge delivery and understanding, and the willingness of students to integrate OH into their future practice. For the improvement of future programs, the involvement of other disciplines (such as Medical, Biology, Biotechnology, Biomedical, and Public Health is being considered.

  10. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2015-01-01

    model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across......Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death...... and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our...

  11. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

    2006-07-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  12. Real-time sensing and three-dimensional display of far outdoor scenes based on asymmetric integral imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jae-Gwan; Choi, Hee-Min; Hwang, Yong Seok; Kim, Eun-Soo

    2017-07-01

    A new asymmetric integral imaging (AII) system for real-time pickup and three-dimensional (3-D) display of far outdoor scenes based on dynamic-pixel-mapping (DPM) is proposed. DPM is a digital process to transform the elemental images captured with a lens array into the perspective-variant object images (POIs) whose structures are matched with those of display lenses, where the orders of pixels in each POI are reversely mapped, and then capture a set of virtual elemental images (EIs) at the specific depth planes from the back-propagated POIs. This DPM enables an asymmetrical use of pickup and display lens arrays, allowing the long-ranged pickup of far outdoor scenes and their resolution-enhanced 3-D reconstruction. Experiments with a pair of pickup and display lens arrays whose pitches and focal lengths are given by 7.5 mm, 30 mm and 1.2 mm, 8 mm, respectively, show that the effective pickup-range and resolution of the proposed system have been increased up to 6 m and 1600×1600 pixels, respectively, from 0.064 m and 480×480 pixels of the conventional systems employing the same pickup and display lens arrays. In addition, experiments with an implemented test bed confirms that the proposed system can provide real-time 3-D images in 25 frames per second.

  13. Predicting compliance with an information-based residential outdoor water conservation program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landon, Adam C.; Kyle, Gerard T.; Kaiser, Ronald A.

    2016-05-01

    Residential water conservation initiatives often involve some form of education or persuasion intended to change the attitudes and behaviors of residential consumers. However, the ability of these instruments to change attitudes toward conservation and their efficacy in affecting water use remains poorly understood. In this investigation the authors examine consumer attitudes toward complying with a persuasive water conservation program, the extent to which those attitudes predict compliance, and the influence of environmental contextual factors on outdoor water use. Results indicate that the persuasive program was successful in developing positive attitudes toward compliance, and that those attitudes predict water use. However, attitudinal variables explain a relatively small proportion of the variance in objectively measured water use behavior. Recommendations for policy are made stressing the importance of understanding both the effects of attitudes and environmental contextual factors in behavior change initiatives in the municipal water sector.

  14. Global 15 x 15 Minute Grids of the Downscaled GDP Based on the SRES B2 Scenario, 1990 and 2025

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global 15x15 Minute Grids of the Downscaled GDP Based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 Scenario, 1990 and 2025, are geospatial...

  15. Global 15 x 15 Minute Grids of the Downscaled Population Based on the SRES B2 Scenario, 1990 and 2025

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global 15x15 Minute Grids of the Downscaled Population Based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 Scenario, 1990 and 2025, are geospatial...

  16. Integrated algorithms for RFID-based multi-sensor indoor/outdoor positioning solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Mi.; Retscher, G.; Zhang, K.

    2011-12-01

    Position information is very important as people need it almost everywhere all the time. However, it is a challenging task to provide precise positions indoor/outdoor seamlessly. Outdoor positioning has been widely studied and accurate positions can usually be achieved by well developed GPS techniques but these techniques are difficult to be used indoors since GPS signal reception is limited. The alternative techniques that can be used for indoor positioning include, to name a few, Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN), bluetooth and Ultra Wideband (UWB) etc.. However, all of these have limitations. The main objectives of this paper are to investigate and develop algorithms for a low-cost and portable indoor personal positioning system using Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) and its integration with other positioning systems. An RFID system consists of three components, namely a control unit, an interrogator and a transponder that transmits data and communicates with the reader. An RFID tag can be incorporated into a product, animal or person for the purpose of identification and tracking using radio waves. In general, for RFID positioning in urban and indoor environments three different methods can be used, including cellular positioning, trilateration and location fingerprinting. In addition, the integration of RFID with other technologies is also discussed in this paper. A typical combination is to integrate RFID with relative positioning technologies such as MEMS INS to bridge the gaps between RFID tags for continuous positioning applications. Experiments are shown to demonstrate the improvements of integrating multiple sensors with RFID which can be employed successfully for personal positioning.

  17. The centricity of presence in scenario-based high fidelity human patient simulation: a model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunnington, Renee M

    2015-01-01

    Enhancing immersive presence has been shown to have influence on learning outcomes in virtual types of simulation. Scenario-based human patient simulation, a mixed reality form, may pose unique challenges for inducing the centricity of presence among participants in simulation. A model for enhancing the centricity of presence in scenario-based human patient simulation is presented here. The model represents a theoretical linkage among the interaction of pedagogical, individual, and group factors that influence the centricity of presence among participants in simulation. Presence may have an important influence on the learning experiences and learning outcomes in scenario-based high fidelity human patient simulation. This report is a follow-up to an article published in 2014 by the author where connections were made to the theoretical basis of presence as articulated by nurse scholars. © The Author(s) 2014.

  18. A multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvadori, G.; Durante, F.; De Michele, C.; Bernardi, M.; Petrella, L.

    2016-05-01

    This paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case (d≥2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.

  19. Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Feng, Cong [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Wang, Zhenke [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Zhang, Jie [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States)

    2017-08-31

    Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

  20. Hybrid Modeling for Scenario-Based Evaluation of Failure Effects in Advanced Hardware-Software Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land; Throop, David

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes an incremental scenario-based simulation approach to evaluation of intelligent software for control and management of hardware systems. A hybrid continuous/discrete event simulation of the hardware dynamically interacts with the intelligent software in operations scenarios. Embedded anomalous conditions and failures in simulated hardware can lead to emergent software behavior and identification of missing or faulty software or hardware requirements. An approach is described for extending simulation-based automated incremental failure modes and effects analysis, to support concurrent evaluation of intelligent software and the hardware controlled by the software

  1. The Effect of a School-Based Outdoor Education Program on Visual Arts Teachers' Success and Self-Efficacy Beliefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hursen, Cigdem; Islek, Didem

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this research is to determine the effect of an education programme developed based on the school-based outdoor education approach on the academic achievement of visual arts teachers, as well as their self-efficacy beliefs for using museums and the natural environment. The aim is likewise to explore the views of the teachers on the…

  2. Scenario-based fitted Q-iteration for adaptive control of water reservoir systems under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertoni, Federica; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Over recent years, mathematical models have largely been used to support planning and management of water resources systems. Yet, the increasing uncertainties in their inputs - due to increased variability in the hydrological regimes - are a major challenge to the optimal operations of these systems. Such uncertainty, boosted by projected changing climate, violates the stationarity principle generally used for describing hydro-meteorological processes, which assumes time persisting statistical characteristics of a given variable as inferred by historical data. As this principle is unlikely to be valid in the future, the probability density function used for modeling stochastic disturbances (e.g., inflows) becomes an additional uncertain parameter of the problem, which can be described in a deterministic and set-membership based fashion. This study contributes a novel method for designing optimal, adaptive policies for controlling water reservoir systems under climate-related uncertainty. The proposed method, called scenario-based Fitted Q-Iteration (sFQI), extends the original Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm by enlarging the state space to include the space of the uncertain system's parameters (i.e., the uncertain climate scenarios). As a result, sFQI embeds the set-membership uncertainty of the future inflow scenarios in the action-value function and is able to approximate, with a single learning process, the optimal control policy associated to any scenario included in the uncertainty set. The method is demonstrated on a synthetic water system, consisting of a regulated lake operated for ensuring reliable water supply to downstream users. Numerical results show that the sFQI algorithm successfully identifies adaptive solutions to operate the system under different inflow scenarios, which outperform the control policy designed under historical conditions. Moreover, the sFQI policy generalizes over inflow scenarios not directly experienced during the policy design

  3. vNet Zero Energy for Radio Base Stations- Balearic Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabater, Pere; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Pol, Andreu Moia

    2016-01-01

    The Balearic Islands have one of the best telecommunications infrastructures in Spain, with more than 1500 Radio Base Stations (RBS) covering a total surface of 4.991,66 km². This archipelago has high energy consumption, with high CO2 emissions, due to an electrical energy production system mainly...... based on coal and fossil fuels which is not an environmentally sustainable scenario. The aim of this study is to identify the processes that would reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, designing a target scenario featuring "zero CO2 emissions" and "100% renewable energies" in RBS....... The energy costs, CO2 emissions and data traffic data used for the study are generated by a sample of RBS from the Balearic Islands. The results are shown in terms of energy performance for a normal and net zero emissions scenarios....

  4. The Rainfall Intensity Effects on 1–13 GHz UWB-Based 5G System for Outdoor Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joko Suryana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports a research contribution on tropical outdoor channel characterization in 1–13 GHz band for 5G systems. This 1–13 GHz ultra-wideband (UWB channel characterization is formulated with rain intensity as the most important variable, from 20 mm/h to 200 mm/h. Tropical rain will cause pulse broadening and distorts the transmitted symbols, so the probability of symbol errors will increase. In this research, the bit error rate (BER performance evaluation is done using both matched filtering or correlator-based receivers. At no rain conditions, BER 10−6 will be attained at signal to noise ratio (SNR 5 dB, but at rainfall intensity 200 mm/h, the BER will fall to 10−2 for matched filter and 5×10-2 for correlator-based receivers. For improving the BER performance, an adaptive nonlinear phase equalizer is proposed which adopts multiple allpass biquad infinite impulse response (IIR filters combined with low-order finite impulse response (FIR filter to mitigate the nonlinearity phase and differential attenuation of magnitude responses due to antenna and tropical outdoor UWB channel effects. Our simulation results show that the proposed equalizer has worked successfully with BER 10−6 on the rain rate that is exceeded for 0.01% of the time (R0.01 rain intensity or 99.99% availability. In addition, at rainfall rate 120 mm/h, the proposed nonlinear phase equalizer can give 9 dB signal improvement.

  5. Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

    2017-11-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  6. Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

    2017-01-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  7. Formal analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Popova, V.; Sharpanskykh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents various formal techniques for analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented models of organizations. Process-oriented models describe (prescribe) ordering and timing relations on organizational processes, modes of use of resources, allocations of

  8. Assessing the Psychometric Properties of a Scenario-Based Measure of Achievement Guilt and Shame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ted; Sharp, Jessica; Alexander, James

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the psychometric properties of the scenario-based Achievement Guilt and Shame Scale (AGSS) were established. The AGSS and scales assessing interpersonal guilt and shame, high standards, overgeneralization, self-criticism, self-esteem, academic self-concept, fear of failure, and tendency to respond in a socially desirable manner were…

  9. Time Pressure in Scenario-Based Online Construction Safety Quizzes and Its Effect on Students' Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, Martin; Adair, Desmond

    2017-01-01

    Online quizzes have been shown to be effective learning and assessment approaches. However, if scenario-based online construction safety quizzes do not include time pressure similar to real-world situations, they reflect situations too ideally. The purpose of this paper is to compare engineering students' performance when carrying out an online…

  10. Teaching Early Childhood Education Students through Interactive Scenario-Based Course Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, Kathleen Mary; Kelly, Melissa A.

    2012-01-01

    Early childhood teacher education courses must prepare students for the types of challenges they will face in communities and classrooms after graduation. By adopting a scenario-based approach, teacher educators and others designing online environments can help prepare students for these challenges. Solving complex problems inherent in a…

  11. Kalman filter for speech enhancement in cocktail party scenarios using a codebook-based approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kavalekalam, Mathew Shaji; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Gran, Fredrik

    2016-01-01

    Enhancement of speech in non-stationary background noise is a challenging task, and conventional single channel speech enhancement algorithms have not been able to improve the speech intelligibility in such scenarios. The work proposed in this paper investigates a single channel Kalman filter based...

  12. THE SCENARIOS APPROACH TO ATTENUATION-BASED REMEDIES FOR INORGANIC AND RADIONUCLIDE CONTAMINANTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vangelas, K.; Rysz, M.; Truex, M.; Brady, P.; Newell, C.; Denham, M.

    2011-08-04

    Guidance materials based on use of conceptual model scenarios were developed to assist evaluation and implementation of attenuation-based remedies for groundwater and vadose zones contaminated with inorganic and radionuclide contaminants. The Scenarios approach is intended to complement the comprehensive information provided in the US EPA's Technical Protocol for Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) of Inorganic Contaminants by providing additional information on site conceptual models and extending the evaluation to consideration of Enhanced Attenuation approaches. The conceptual models incorporate the notion of reactive facies, defined as units with hydrogeochemical properties that are different from surrounding units and that react with contaminants in distinct ways. The conceptual models also incorporate consideration of biogeochemical gradients, defined as boundaries between different geochemical conditions that have been induced by waste disposal or other natural phenomena. Gradients can change over time when geochemical conditions from one area migrate into another, potentially affecting contaminant mobility. A recognition of gradients allows the attenuation-affecting conditions of a site to be projected into the future. The Scenarios approach provides a stepwise process to identify an appropriate category of conceptual model and refine it for a specific site. Scenario materials provide links to pertinent sections in the EPA technical protocol and present information about contaminant mobility and important controlling mechanism for attenuation-based remedies based on the categories of conceptual models.

  13. Adapting Scenario-Based Curriculum Materials to Community College Technical Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarnall, Louise; Toyama, Yukie; Gong, Bowyee; Ayers, Catherine; Ostrander, Jane

    2007-01-01

    Community college educators seek to infuse their workforce courses with more "real world" activities. This 3-year case study examined how 7 instructors and 78 students in California and Texas responded to the changes involved in implementing one type of reform program--the scenario-based curriculum (Schank, 1997). The study shows that…

  14. Usability of the EMERGO player environment for scenario-based serious games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slootmaker, Aad; Nadolski, Rob; Kurvers, Hub; Hummel, Hans; Koper, Rob

    2017-01-01

    The EMERGO online platform enables the development and delivery of scenario-based serious games that foster students in acquiring professional competence. One of the main goals of the platform was to provide a user-friendly player environment that enables students to learn complex cognitive

  15. Mind map our way into effective student questioning: A principle-based scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokhof, Harry; De Vries, Bregje; Bastiaens, Theo; Martens, Rob

    2017-01-01

    Student questioning is an important self-regulative strategy and has multiple benefits for teaching and learning science. Teachers, however, need support to align student questioning to curricular goals. This study tests a prototype of a principle-based scenario that supports teachers in guiding

  16. Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2012-01-01

    the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban...

  17. An Ontology-Based Scenario for Teaching the Management of Health Information Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn, Franziska; Schaaf, Michael; Kahmann, Christian; Tahar, Kais; Kücherer, Christian; Paech, Barbara; Winter, Alfred

    2016-01-01

    The terminology for the management of health information systems is characterized by complexity and polysemy which is both challenging for medical informatics students and practitioners. SNIK, an ontology of information management (IMI) in hospitals, brings together IM concepts from different literature sources. Based on SNIK, we developed a blended learning scenario to teach medical informatics students IM concepts and their relationships. In proof-of-concept teaching units, students found the use of SNIK in teaching and learning motivating and useful. In the next step, the blended learning scenario will be rolled out to an international course for medical informatics students.

  18. Performance Assessment of a Solar-Assisted Desiccant-Based Air Handling Unit Considering Different Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Angrisani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, three alternative layouts (scenarios of an innovative solar-assisted hybrid desiccant-based air handling unit (AHU are investigated through dynamic simulations. Performance is evaluated with respect to a reference system and compared to those of the innovative plant without modifications. For each scenario, different collector types, surfaces and tilt angles are considered. The effect of the solar thermal energy surplus exploitation for other low-temperature uses is also investigated. The first alternative scenario consists of the recovery of the heat rejected by the condenser of the chiller to pre-heat the regeneration air. The second scenario considers the pre-heating of regeneration air with the warmer regeneration air exiting the desiccant wheel (DW. The last scenario provides pre-cooling of the process air before entering the DW. Results reveal that the plants with evacuated solar collectors (SC can ensure primary energy savings (15%–24% and avoid equivalent CO2 emissions (14%–22%, about 10 percentage points more than those with flat-plate collectors, when the solar thermal energy is used only for air conditioning and the collectors have the best tilt angle. If all of the solar thermal energy is considered, the best results with evacuated tube collectors are approximately 73% in terms of primary energy saving, 71% in terms of avoided equivalent CO2 emissions and a payback period of six years.

  19. Mind Map Our Way into Effective Student Questioning: a Principle-Based Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokhof, Harry; de Vries, Bregje; Bastiaens, Theo; Martens, Rob

    2017-07-01

    Student questioning is an important self-regulative strategy and has multiple benefits for teaching and learning science. Teachers, however, need support to align student questioning to curricular goals. This study tests a prototype of a principle-based scenario that supports teachers in guiding effective student questioning. In the scenario, mind mapping is used to provide both curricular structure as well as support for student questioning. The fidelity of structure and the process of implementation were verified by interviews, video data and a product collection. Results show that the scenario was relevant for teachers, practical in use and effective for guiding student questioning. Results also suggest that shared responsibility for classroom mind maps contributed to more intensive collective knowledge construction.

  20. UAV-Based Oblique Photogrammetry for Outdoor Data Acquisition and Offsite Visual Inspection of Transmission Line

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    San Jiang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Regular inspection of transmission lines is an essential work, which has been implemented by either labor intensive or very expensive approaches. 3D reconstruction could be an alternative solution to satisfy the need for accurate and low cost inspection. This paper exploits the use of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV for outdoor data acquisition and conducts accuracy assessment tests to explore potential usage for offsite inspection of transmission lines. Firstly, an oblique photogrammetric system, integrating with a cheap double-camera imaging system, an onboard dual-frequency GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System receiver and a ground master GNSS station in fixed position, is designed to acquire images with ground resolutions better than 3 cm. Secondly, an image orientation method, considering oblique imaging geometry of the dual-camera system, is applied to detect enough tie-points to construct stable image connection in both along-track and across-track directions. To achieve the best geo-referencing accuracy and evaluate model measurement precision, signalized ground control points (GCPs and model key points have been surveyed. Finally, accuracy assessment tests, including absolute orientation precision and relative model precision, have been conducted with different GCP configurations. Experiments show that images captured by the designed photogrammetric system contain enough information of power pylons from different viewpoints. Quantitative assessment demonstrates that, with fewer GCPs for image orientation, the absolute and relative accuracies of image orientation and model measurement are better than 0.3 and 0.2 m, respectively. For regular inspection of transmission lines, the proposed solution can to some extent be an alternative method with competitive accuracy, lower operational complexity and considerable gains in economic cost.

  1. Scenario-Based Analysis on the Structural Change of Land Uses in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Land Use/Land Cover change (LUCC is a key aspect of global environmental change, which has a significant impact on climate change. In the background of increasing global warming resulting from greenhouse effect, to understand the impact of land use change on climate change is necessary and meaningful. In this study, we choose China as the study area and explore the possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of global change assessment model (GCAM model and Global Change Assessment Model. We design three scenarios based on socioeconomic development and simulated the corresponding structure change of land use according to the three scenarios with different parameters. Then we simulate the different emission of CO2 under different scenarios based on the simulation results of structure change of land use. At last, we choose the most suitable scenario that could control the emission of CO2 best and obtain the relatively better land use structure change for adaption of climate change. Through this research we can provide a theoretical basis for the future land use planning to adapt to climate change.

  2. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manns PJ

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

  3. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manns, Patricia J; Darrah, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors' curriculum research study. Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1) identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2) literature search; (3) develop scenario framework; and (4) write scenario. Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios - ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation. The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists' reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.

  4. Estimating individual-level exposure to airborne polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons throughout the gestational period based on personal, indoor, and outdoor monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, H.; Perera, F.; Pac, A.; Wang, L.; Flak, E.; Mroz, E.; Jacek, R.; Chai-Onn, T.; Jedrychowski, W.; Masters, E.; Camann, D.; Spengler, J. [Columbia University, New York, NY (United States)

    2008-11-15

    Current understanding on health effects of long-term polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposure is limited by lack of data on time-varying nature of the pollutants at an individual level. In a cohort of pregnant women in Krakow, Poland, we examined the contribution of temporal, spatial, and behavioral factors to prenatal exposure to airborne PAHs within each trimester and developed a predictive model of PAH exposure over the entire gestational period. The observed personal, indoor, and outdoor B(a)P levels we observed in Krakow far exceed the recommended Swedish guideline value for B(a)P of 0.1 ng/m{sup 3}. Based on simultaneously monitored levels, the outdoor PAH level alone accounts for 93% of total variability in personal exposure during the heating season. Living near the Krakow bus depot, a crossroad, and the city, center and time spent outdoors or commuting were not associated with higher personal exposure. During the nonheating season only, a 1-hr increase in environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure was associated with a 10-16% increase in personal exposure to the nine measured PAHs. A 1{degree}C decrease in ambient temperature was associated with a 3-5% increase in exposure to benz(a)anthracene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, and dibenz(a,h)anthracene, after accounting for the outdoor concentration. A random effects model demonstrated that mean personal exposure at a given gestational period depends on the season, residence location, and ETS. Considering that most women reported spending < 3 hr/day outdoors, most women in the study were exposed to outdoor-originating PAHs within the indoor setting. Cross-sectional, longitudinal monitoring supplemented with questionnaire data allowed development of a gestation-length model of individual-level exposure with high precision and validity.

  5. Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Wagner Jonas; Binkowski Eva; Bronsart Robert

    2014-01-01

    In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS) is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis ...

  6. An optimization method based on scenario analysis for watershed management under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yong; Guo, Huaicheng; Zhang, Zhenxing; Wang, Lijing; Dai, Yongli; Fan, Yingying

    2007-05-01

    In conjunction with socioeconomic development in watersheds, increasingly challenging problems, such as scarcity of water resources and environmental deterioration, have arisen. Watershed management is a useful tool for dealing with these issues and maintaining sustainable development at the watershed scale. The complex and uncertain characteristics of watershed systems have a great impact on decisions about countermeasures and other techniques that will be applied in the future. An optimization method based on scenario analysis is proposed in this paper as a means of handling watershed management under uncertainty. This method integrates system analysis, forecast methods, and scenario analysis, as well as the contributions of stakeholders and experts, into a comprehensive framework. The proposed method comprises four steps: system analyses, a listing of potential engineering techniques and countermeasures, scenario analyses, and the optimal selection of countermeasures and engineering techniques. The proposed method was applied to the case of the Lake Qionghai watershed in southwestern China, and the results are reported in this paper. This case study demonstrates that the proposed method can be used to deal efficiently with uncertainties at the watershed level. Moreover, this method takes into consideration the interests of different groups, which is crucial for successful watershed management. In particular, social, economic, environmental, and resource systems are all considered in order to improve the applicability of the method. In short, the optimization method based on scenario analysis proposed here is a valuable tool for watershed management.

  7. Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario...... plan to pluvial flooding that makes the urban areas more robust and reduces the risk of flooding in current climate to a very low level. The economic benefit in the A1B scenario is substantial, and even in the 6 degree scenario the frequency of flooding is not much higher than national recommendations...... simulations. These include a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees as well as a projection based on the RCP8.5 scenario. With these scenarios projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges the impacts do not seem...

  8. Outdoors classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szymanska-Markowska, Barbara

    2016-04-01

    Why should students be trapped within the four walls of the classroom when there are a lot of ideas to have lessons led in the different way? I am not a fan of having lessons at school. For many students it is also boring to stay only at school, too. So I decided to organize workshops and trips to Universities or outdoors. I created KMO ( Discoverer's Club for Teenagers) at my school where students gave me some ideas and we started to make them real. I teach at school where students don't like science. I try hard to change their point of view about it. That's why I started to take parts in different competitions with my students. Last year we measured noise everywhere by the use of applications on a tablet to convince them that noise is very harmful for our body and us. We examined that the most harmful noises were at school's breaks, near the motorways and in the households. We also proved that acoustic screens, which were near the motorways, didn't protect us from noise. We measured that 30 meters from the screens the noise is the same as the motorway. We won the main prize for these measurements. We also got awards for calculating the costs of a car supplied by powered by a solar panel. We measured everything by computer. This year we decided to write an essay about trees and weather. We went to the forest and found the cut trees because we wanted to read the age of tree from the stump. I hadn't known earlier that we could read the weather from the tree's grain. We examined a lot of trees and we can tell that trees are good carriers of information about weather and natural disasters. I started studies safety education and I have a lot of ideas how to get my students interested in this subject that is similar to P.E., physics and chemistry, too. I hope that I will use my abilities from European Space Education Resource Office and GIFT workshop. I plan to use satellite and space to teach my students how they can check information about terrorism, floods or other

  9. Health care professional workstation: software system construction using DSSA scenario-based engineering process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hufnagel, S; Harbison, K; Silva, J; Mettala, E

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a new method for the evolutionary determination of user requirements and system specifications called scenario-based engineering process (SEP). Health care professional workstations are critical components of large scale health care system architectures. We suggest that domain-specific software architectures (DSSAs) be used to specify standard interfaces and protocols for reusable software components throughout those architectures, including workstations. We encourage the use of engineering principles and abstraction mechanisms. Engineering principles are flexible guidelines, adaptable to particular situations. Abstraction mechanisms are simplifications for management of complexity. We recommend object-oriented design principles, graphical structural specifications, and formal components' behavioral specifications. We give an ambulatory care scenario and associated models to demonstrate SEP. The scenario uses health care terminology and gives patients' and health care providers' system views. Our goal is to have a threefold benefit. (i) Scenario view abstractions provide consistent interdisciplinary communications. (ii) Hierarchical object-oriented structures provide useful abstractions for reuse, understandability, and long term evolution. (iii) SEP and health care DSSA integration into computer aided software engineering (CASE) environments. These environments should support rapid construction and certification of individualized systems, from reuse libraries.

  10. Gas allocation plans based on failures scenarios: PETROBRAS-Gas and Power Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faertes, Denise; Vieira, Flavia; Saker, Leonardo; Heil, Luciana [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Galvao, Joao [DNV, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present gas allocation plans developed for PETROBRAS Gas and Power Sector, considering failure to supply scenarios that could occur along gas supply network. Those scenarios, as well as the associated contingency plans, were identified and validated by an experienced team, composed by engineers and operators from different PETROBRAS sectors. The key issue of concern was the anticipation of possible undesired scenarios that could imply on contract shortfalls, the evaluation of possible maneuvers, taking into account best gas delivery allocation. Different software were used for the simulation of best gas supply allocation and for the verification of delivery pressure and conditions for final consumers. The ability of being capable of dealing with undesired or crisis scenarios, based on suitable anticipation levels, is, nowadays, a highly valuable attribute to be presented by competitive corporations, for best crisis management and prompt recovery response. Those plans are being used by Gas and Power Gas Operation Control Centre and as an input for reliability modeling of gas supply chain. (author)

  11. Method-Based Higher Education in Sustainability: The Potential of the Scenario Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Beecroft

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Both sustainability and education are challenging process-oriented objectives. When the aim is to combine both notions, as in Higher Education in Sustainability (HES, it is indispensable to first establish a common ground between them. In this paper, we characterise this common ground in terms of four aspects: future orientation, normativity, global perspective, and theory engaged in practice. Based on an analysis of the common ground, one method that is well-established in a wide range of sustainability sciences shows high potential for use in HES because it covers all four aspects in detail: the scenario method. We argue that a didactical reconstruction of the scenario method is necessary to utilise its potential and develop adequate forms of teaching in higher education. The scenario method is used to construct and analyse a set of alternative future developments to support decisions that have to be made in the present. Didactical reconstruction reveals a spectrum of objectives for which the scenario method can be employed: (1 projection; (2 teleological planning and (3 an explorative search for possibilities not yet considered. By studying and experimenting with this spectrum of objectives, students in HES can develop fundamental reflexive competencies in addressing the future in different ways that are relevant for both sustainability and education.

  12. Effects of an outdoor bicycle-based intervention in healthy rural Indian men with normal and low birth weight

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, C; Mogensen, P; Thomas, N

    2015-01-01

    of an outdoor exercise intervention on body composition, insulin secretion and action in young men born with LBW and NBW in rural India. A total of 61 LBW and 56 NBW healthy young men were recruited into the study. The individuals were instructed to perform outdoor bicycle exercise training for 45 min every day...... with LBW in rural India benefit metabolically from exercise training to an extent comparable with NBW controls....

  13. Fuzzy Cognitive Map scenario-based medical decision support systems for education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgopoulos, Voula C; Chouliara, Spyridoula; Stylios, Chrysostomos D

    2014-01-01

    Soft Computing (SC) techniques are based on exploiting human knowledge and experience and they are extremely useful to model any complex decision making procedure. Thus, they have a key role in the development of Medical Decision Support Systems (MDSS). The soft computing methodology of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps has successfully been used to represent human reasoning and to infer conclusions and decisions in a human-like way and thus, FCM-MDSSs have been developed. Such systems are able to assist in critical decision-making, support diagnosis procedures and consult medical professionals. Here a new methodology is introduced to expand the utilization of FCM-MDSS for learning and educational purposes using a scenario-based learning (SBL) approach. This is particularly important in medical education since it allows future medical professionals to safely explore extensive "what-if" scenarios in case studies and prepare for dealing with critical adverse events.

  14. SIMULATION OF SUBURBAN DEVELOPMENT FEATURES BASED ON SCENARIOS IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF IASI CITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEXANDRA BLĂGEANU

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Simulation of suburban development features based on scenarios in the eastern side of Iasi city Suburbanization, a complex process well-developed pre-eminently after the fall of communism, is characterized by a spontaneous, sometimes ambiguous, evolution comparatively to the urban planning specific to the former period. The phenomenon, typical to large cities, has known different stages that were enforced by local factors, creating, thus, an uncertain, chaotic and hard to control suburban fringe. This approach highlights the features of the named process; the first step is aimed to identify some urban models by analyzing those administrative units which are into a continuous motion, namely the communes Barnova, Miroslava and Valea Lupului. Based on the urban blueprints identified in the first part of the approach, will be imagined/built scenarios which will predict the rhythm of suburban expansion in two chosen communes located in the eastern side of Iasi city.

  15. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozas, Elisa Oteros; Martín-López, Berta; Daw, Tim M.

    2015-01-01

    Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflec...... systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges....... of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater......Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect...

  16. Scenario-based verification of real-time systems using UPPAAL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shuhao; Belaguer, Sandie; David, Alexandre

    2010-01-01

    have been implemented in the UPPAAL tool and built as a tool chain, respectively. We try out the prototype verification tools on a number of examples and case studies. Experimental results indicate that these methods are viable, computationally feasible,and the tools are effective.......Abstract This paper proposes two approaches to tool-supported automatic verification of dense real-time systems against scenario-based requirements, where a system is modeled as a network of timed automata (TAs) or as a set of driving live sequence charts (LSCs), and a requirement is specified......, the problem of scenario-based verification reduces to a computation tree logic (CTL) real-time model checking problem. In case the real time system is modeled as a set of driving LSC charts, we translate these driving charts and the monitored chart into a behavior-equivalent network of TAs by using a “one...

  17. Multistage stochastic programming: A scenario tree based approach to planning under uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Defourny, Boris; Ernst, Damien; Wehenkel, Louis

    2011-01-01

    In this chapter, we present the multistage stochastic programming framework for sequential decision making under uncertainty. We discuss its differences with Markov Decision Processes, from the point of view of decision models and solution algorithms. We describe the standard technique for solving approximately multistage stochastic problems, which is based on a discretization of the disturbance space called scenario tree. We insist on a critical issue of the approach: the decisions can be ve...

  18. Scenario Analysis of Web Service Composition based on Multi-Criteria Mathematical Goal Programming

    OpenAIRE

    LiYing Cui; Soundar Kumara; Dongwon Lee

    2011-01-01

    This paper addresses the web service composition problem considering multi-criteria regarding quality of services (QoS). Three different scenarios of multi-criteria mathematical programming models are explored under the framework of network based analysis in web service composition. This work takes care of the issues pertaining to inputs and outputs matching of web services and Quality-of-Service (QoS) at the same time. The multi-criteria programming models are explored to select the desirabl...

  19. Using Scenario-based Business Modelling to Explore the 5G Telecommunication Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moqaddamerad, Sara; Ahokangas, Petri; Matinmikko, Marja

    2017-01-01

    Innovative technologies often alter established value chains and make traditional strategic planning methods inadequate. In this paper, we present the use of scenario-based business modelling to explore the market for the fifth generation mobile communication networks (5G). We discuss four...... to integrate multi-dimensional change, from technology, regulation, value-chain dynamics, and value proposition evolution. We further conclude that the approach is particularly valuable in environments that are characterized by a high level of uncertainty and complexity....

  20. Learning Through Nature: A Study of a Next Generation Science Standards Based Teacher Workshop that Blends Outdoor Learning Experiences with Formal Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanning, Ashley

    Many teachers lack the confidence and knowledge to transition their classroom science lessons to an outdoor setting. Very few teacher professional development (PD) programs focus on improving teachers' self-efficacy and pedagogical content knowledge (PCK) that is needed to enhance their science curriculum with outdoor lessons. This study examined an exception: The Connect2Science workshops, which provided elementary teachers the opportunity to experience nature-based science lessons. My research question for this study is: In what ways does a professional development workshop focused around the Next Generation Science Standards influence teachers': a) self-efficacy in teaching science outdoors and b) science pedagogical content knowledge? Data was collected using a retrospective pre and post survey, a reflection piece on participants' pedagogical content knowledge and semi-structured interviews. The results showed that participants' self-efficacy was positively affected by the Connect2Science workshops. As for pedagogical content knowledge, the results give a small insight into how participants viewed and thought about student misconceptions and how the instructional strategies presented in the workshops equipped them to better address science content in an outdoor setting.

  1. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  2. Measuring Engagement in Later Life Activities: Rasch-Based Scenario Scales for Work, Caregiving, Informal Helping, and Volunteering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludlow, Larry H.; Matz-Costa, Christina; Johnson, Clair; Brown, Melissa; Besen, Elyssa; James, Jacquelyn B.

    2014-01-01

    The development of Rasch-based "comparative engagement scenarios" based on Guttman's facet theory and sentence mapping procedures is described. The scenario scales measuring engagement in work, caregiving, informal helping, and volunteering illuminate the lived experiences of role involvement among older adults and offer multiple…

  3. Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick I.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Peters, Jeff; MacMullan, Ed; Krebs, Tessa; Shoaf, Kimberley; Miller, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize community disruptions, we explore the implications of scenario-based evacuation procedures and use the California (USA) coastline as our case study. We focus on the land in coastal communities that is in maximum-evacuation zones, but is not expected to be flooded by a tsunami generated by a Chilean earthquake scenario. Results suggest that a scenario-based evacuation could greatly reduce the number of residents and employees that would be advised to evacuate for 24–36 h (178,646 and 159,271 fewer individuals, respectively) and these reductions are concentrated primarily in three counties for this scenario. Private evacuation spending is estimated to be greater than public expenditures for operating shelters in the area of potential over-evacuations ($13 million compared to $1 million for a 1.5-day evacuation). Short-term disruption costs for businesses in the area of potential over-evacuation are approximately $122 million for a 1.5-day evacuation, with one-third of this cost associated with manufacturing, suggesting that some disruption costs may be recouped over time with increased short-term production. There are many businesses and organizations in this area that contain individuals with limited mobility or access and functional needs that may have substantial evacuation challenges. This study demonstrates and discusses the difficulties of tsunami-evacuation decision-making for relatively small to moderate events faced by emergency managers, not only in California but in coastal communities throughout the world.

  4. A Tool for Model-Based Generation of Scenario-driven Electric Power Load Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozek, Matthew L.; Donahue, Kenneth M.; Ingham, Michel D.; Kaderka, Justin D.

    2015-01-01

    Power consumption during all phases of spacecraft flight is of great interest to the aerospace community. As a result, significant analysis effort is exerted to understand the rates of electrical energy generation and consumption under many operational scenarios of the system. Previously, no standard tool existed for creating and maintaining a power equipment list (PEL) of spacecraft components that consume power, and no standard tool existed for generating power load profiles based on this PEL information during mission design phases. This paper presents the Scenario Power Load Analysis Tool (SPLAT) as a model-based systems engineering tool aiming to solve those problems. SPLAT is a plugin for MagicDraw (No Magic, Inc.) that aids in creating and maintaining a PEL, and also generates a power and temporal variable constraint set, in Maple language syntax, based on specified operational scenarios. The constraint set can be solved in Maple to show electric load profiles (i.e. power consumption from loads over time). SPLAT creates these load profiles from three modeled inputs: 1) a list of system components and their respective power modes, 2) a decomposition hierarchy of the system into these components, and 3) the specification of at least one scenario, which consists of temporal constraints on component power modes. In order to demonstrate how this information is represented in a system model, a notional example of a spacecraft planetary flyby is introduced. This example is also used to explain the overall functionality of SPLAT, and how this is used to generate electric power load profiles. Lastly, a cursory review of the usage of SPLAT on the Cold Atom Laboratory project is presented to show how the tool was used in an actual space hardware design application.

  5. Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öttl, Anton; Behne, Dawn M

    2017-01-01

    The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors), participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress.

  6. Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Öttl

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors, participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress.

  7. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... to pluvial flooding that makes the urban areas more robust and reduces the risk of flooding under the current climate to a very low level. The reduction in flood risk for the A1B scenario is substantial (corresponding to 0.2-0.3 times the current EAD in 2100), and even in the high-end scenarios, the risk...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...

  8. Education and Outdoor Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bureau of Outdoor Recreation (Dept. of Interior), Washington, DC.

    A special study was conducted to determine the needs and demands of the public for outdoor recreation. Increasing amounts of leisure time of the American people are being used for outdoor recreation activities. Ways in which education can help people realize optimum benefit from recreational use of the outdoor environment are discussed.…

  9. Accelerated Evaluation of Automated Vehicles Safety in Lane-Change Scenarios Based on Importance Sampling Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ding; Lam, Henry; Peng, Huei; Bao, Shan; LeBlanc, David J; Nobukawa, Kazutoshi; Pan, Christopher S

    2017-03-01

    Automated vehicles (AVs) must be thoroughly evaluated before their release and deployment. A widely used evaluation approach is the Naturalistic-Field Operational Test (N-FOT), which tests prototype vehicles directly on the public roads. Due to the low exposure to safety-critical scenarios, N-FOTs are time consuming and expensive to conduct. In this paper, we propose an accelerated evaluation approach for AVs. The results can be used to generate motions of the other primary vehicles to accelerate the verification of AVs in simulations and controlled experiments. Frontal collision due to unsafe cut-ins is the target crash type of this paper. Human-controlled vehicles making unsafe lane changes are modeled as the primary disturbance to AVs based on data collected by the University of Michigan Safety Pilot Model Deployment Program. The cut-in scenarios are generated based on skewed statistics of collected human driver behaviors, which generate risky testing scenarios while preserving the statistical information so that the safety benefits of AVs in nonaccelerated cases can be accurately estimated. The cross-entropy method is used to recursively search for the optimal skewing parameters. The frequencies of the occurrences of conflicts, crashes, and injuries are estimated for a modeled AV, and the achieved accelerated rate is around 2000 to 20 000. In other words, in the accelerated simulations, driving for 1000 miles will expose the AV with challenging scenarios that will take about 2 to 20 million miles of real-world driving to encounter. This technique thus has the potential to greatly reduce the development and validation time for AVs.

  10. Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

    2013-01-01

    A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage...... mechanism. The statistical properties of the monitoring system (the distribution of the detectable damage) are estimated using a log-linear regression for signal response data from simulation. The value of monitoring is then calculated as the difference in expected utility for the structure with...

  11. A new scenario-based approach to damage detection using operational modal parameter estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J. B.; Brincker, R.; López-Aenlle, M.; Overgaard, C. F.; Kloborg, K.

    2017-09-01

    In this paper a vibration-based damage localization and quantification method, based on natural frequencies and mode shapes, is presented. The proposed technique is inspired by a damage assessment methodology based solely on the sensitivity of mass-normalized experimental determined mode shapes. The present method differs by being based on modal data extracted by means of Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) combined with a reasonable Finite Element (FE) representation of the test structure and implemented in a scenario-based framework. Besides a review of the basic methodology this paper addresses fundamental theoretical as well as practical considerations which are crucial to the applicability of a given vibration-based damage assessment configuration. Lastly, the technique is demonstrated on an experimental test case using automated OMA. Both the numerical study as well as the experimental test case presented in this paper are restricted to perturbations concerning mass change.

  12. [Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

    2015-08-01

    Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

  13. Development of outdoor luminescence imaging for drone-based PV array inspection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benatto, Gisele Alves dos Reis; Riedel, Nicholas; Thorsteinsson, Sune

    This work has the goal to examined experimentally PV module imaging methods under natural light conditions, that will be used in a fast, accurate and automatic drone-based inspection system for PV power plants.......This work has the goal to examined experimentally PV module imaging methods under natural light conditions, that will be used in a fast, accurate and automatic drone-based inspection system for PV power plants....

  14. Using scenario-based training to promote information literacy among on-call consultant pediatricians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettersson, Jonas; Bjorkander, Emil; Bark, Sirpa; Holmgren, Daniel; Wekell, Per

    2017-07-01

    Traditionally, teaching hospital staff to search for medical information relies heavily on educator-defined search methods. In contrast, the authors describe our experiences using real-time scenarios to teach on-call consultant pediatricians information literacy skills as part of a two-year continuing professional development program. Two information-searching workshops were held at Sahlgrenska University Hospital in Gothenburg, Sweden. During the workshops, pediatricians were presented with medical scenarios that were closely related to their clinical practice. Participants were initially encouraged to solve the problems using their own preferred search methods, followed by group discussions led by clinical educators and a medical librarian in which search problems were identified and overcome. The workshops were evaluated using questionnaires to assess participant satisfaction and the extent to which participants intended to implement changes in their clinical practice and reported actual change. A scenario-based approach to teaching clinicians how to search for medical information is an attractive alternative to traditional lectures. The relevance of such an approach was supported by a high level of participant engagement during the workshops and high scores for participant satisfaction, intended changes to clinical practice, and reported benefits in actual clinical practice.

  15. Longitudinal associations with changes in outdoor recreation area use for physical activity during a community-based intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoffman, Danielle E; Kaczynski, Andrew T; Forthofer, Melinda; Wilcox, Sara; Hutto, Brent; Child, Stephanie T; Hughey, S Morgan

    2015-09-01

    Outdoor recreation areas (ORA) are important resources for physical activity (PA) and health promotion. While past research has identified correlates of ORA use, few studies have examined predictors of longitudinal changes in park- and trail-based PA in community settings. Using data from a 6-month community-based walking intervention study, we examined cross-sectional and longitudinal predictors of PA in ORAs. Data were collected from baseline and 6-month assessments from participants (n=295) in a group walking intervention in South Carolina; participants enrolled from January 2012-May 2013. A decomposition scheme was used to examine the cross-sectional and longitudinal predictors of average group ORA use for PA, including social support, self-efficacy for PA, perceptions of neighborhood environment, and accelerometer-based PA, adjusting for gender. On average, participants were 49.4+13.3years old, 66.1% were Black, and the majority were women. There was a mean increase in group ORA use of 2.1+0.4days/month from baseline to 6months. Cross-sectionally, higher levels of the percentage of time in MVPA, self-efficacy, and social support were associated with greater group-average ORA use. Longitudinally, increased social support from friends and rating of lighter motorized traffic were associated with increased group ORA use. Additionally, longitudinal increases in percentage of MVPA and more favorable rating of the neighborhood as a place to walk were both associated with decreased group ORA use. Better understanding how social and physical environmental characteristics impact ORA use for PA can lead to more effective intervention strategies and warrants greater attention in future research and public health promotion efforts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Scenario based seismic hazard assessment and its application to the seismic verification of relevant buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanelli, Fabio; Vaccari, Franco; Altin, Giorgio; Panza, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    The procedure we developed, and applied to a few relevant cases, leads to the seismic verification of a building by: a) use of a scenario based neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) for the calculation of the seismic input, and b) control of the numerical modeling of an existing building, using free vibration measurements of the real structure. The key point of this approach is the strict collaboration, from the seismic input definition to the monitoring of the response of the building in the calculation phase, of the seismologist and the civil engineer. The vibrometry study allows the engineer to adjust the computational model in the direction suggested by the experimental result of a physical measurement. Once the model has been calibrated by vibrometric analysis, one can select in the design spectrum the proper range of periods of interest for the structure. Then, the realistic values of spectral acceleration, which include the appropriate amplification obtained through the modeling of a "scenario" input to be applied to the final model, can be selected. Generally, but not necessarily, the "scenario" spectra lead to higher accelerations than those deduced by taking the spectra from the national codes (i.e. NTC 2008, for Italy). The task of the verifier engineer is to act so that the solution of the verification is conservative and realistic. We show some examples of the application of the procedure to some relevant (e.g. schools) buildings of the Trieste Province. The adoption of the scenario input has given in most of the cases an increase of critical elements that have to be taken into account in the design of reinforcements. However, the higher cost associated with the increase of elements to reinforce is reasonable, especially considering the important reduction of the risk level.

  17. UNBC: Outdoor Recreation and Tourism Management Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, Pat

    2007-01-01

    This article describes the University of Northern British Columbia's (UNBC's) Outdoor Recreation and Tourism Management (ORTM) Program, which focuses squarely on the management of outdoor recreation as it relates to conservation (i.e., in and around parks and protected areas), tourism that is both based in and concerned with the natural/cultural…

  18. Subject related teaching in udeskole (outdoor school)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Karen Seierøe

    ’ in Teaching mother tongue in the outdoors, to read and teach literature on places in secondary and high school (Eggersen, 2016). Secondly, Art and aesthetics learning in the outdoors, how can place based art and relational aesthetics as selected artistic practices be an inspiration and a role model...

  19. Outdoor air dominates burden of disease from indoor exposures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hänninen, O.; Asikainen, A.; Carrer, P.

    2014-01-01

    Both indoor and outdoor sources of air pollution have significant public health impacts in Europe. Based on quantitative modelling of the burden of disease the outdoor sources dominate the impacts by a clear margin.......Both indoor and outdoor sources of air pollution have significant public health impacts in Europe. Based on quantitative modelling of the burden of disease the outdoor sources dominate the impacts by a clear margin....

  20. Incorporating scenario-based simulation into a hospital nursing education program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagle, Beth M; McHale, Jeanne M; Alexander, Gail A; French, Brian M

    2009-01-01

    Nurse educators are challenged to provide meaningful and effective learning opportunities for both new and experienced nurses. Simulation as a teaching and learning methodology is being embraced by nursing in academic and practice settings to provide innovative educational experiences to assess and develop clinical competency, promote teamwork, and improve care processes. This article provides an overview of the historical basis for using simulation in education, simulation methodologies, and perceived advantages and disadvantages. It also provides a description of the integration of scenario-based programs using a full-scale patient simulator into nursing education programming at a large academic medical center.

  1. Measurement based scenario analysis of short-range distribution system planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Chen, Zhe

    2009-01-01

    feasible scenarios are performed based on a local distribution system at Støvring in Denmark. Simulation results provide more accurate and insightful information for the decision-maker when using the probabilistic analysis than using the worst-case analysis, so that a better planning can be achieved.......This paper focuses on short-range distribution system planning using a probabilistic approach. Empirical probabilistic distributions of load demand and distributed generations are derived from the historical measurement data and incorporated into the system planning. Simulations with various...

  2. Evaluating design-based formative assessment practices in outdoor science teaching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartmeyer, Rikke; Stevenson, Matthew Peter; Bentsen, Peter

    2016-01-01

    of the design, based on video-elicited focus group interviews with two groups of experienced science teachers. Both groups consisted of teachers who taught science outside the classroom on a regular basis. These groups watched identical video sequences which were recorded during lessons in which teachers...... applied the formative assessment design. These sequences focused on formative assessment in pairs, in small groups, or in whole class sessions. Afterwards, the teachers discussed each sequence. These discussions were audio recorded and later transcribed. The transcriptions were analysed using content...

  3. Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, V. K.; Aslam, O.; Dale, L.; Miller, N.; Purkey, D.

    2010-12-01

    Cities in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa, at the same time that their water resource is threatened by domestic waste and industrial pollution. Urban centers use local springs, wetlands and Lake Victoria as source waters. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three pilot towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Their current populations are 100,000, 70,000 and 200,000 respectively. Demand coverage is ~70% in Masaka and Bukoba, and less than 50% in Kisii. IWRM models for each town were calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios upto 2050. In Masaka, flow and climate data were available to calibrate a runoff model to simulate streamflow at water intake. In Masaka, without considering climate change, the system is infrastructure-limited and not water availability (hydrology) limited until 2035, under projected population growth of 2.17%. Under a wet climate scenario as projected by GCM’s for the LV region, the current wetland source could supply all expected demands until 2050. Even under a drought scenario, the wetland could supply all demand until 2032, if the supply infrastructure is updated at an estimated cost of USD 10.8 million. However, demand targets can only be met at the expense of almost no water returning to the wetland downstream of the intake by 2035, unless substantial investments

  4. Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wagner Jonas

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel’s calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

  5. Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas Wagner

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel's calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

  6. Scenario Object Model Based On-Line Safety Analysis for Chemical Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Gao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Analysis is a method of safety analysis, which is widely used in chemical processes. The conventional methods for safety analysis consist of human based safety analysis and computer aid safety analysis. All of them are off-line and qualitative and it is difficult to carry out on-line safety analysis. On-line safety analysis based on scenario object model was proposed for chemical processes. The scenario object model was built using ontology, by which the safety information can be transferred, reused and shared effectively. Deviation degree and qualitative trend were added to the model. Based on the model and new inference algorithm, on-line safety analysis can be implemented for chemical processes. Once a fault or abnormal event occurs, the causes can be traced and the consequences can be predicted. At the same time, semi-quantitative safety analysis is carried out. The resolution can be improved and it can help the operators handle the problems in time and effectively. The method was used for safety analysis of a reactor process and the effectiveness of the method was proved.

  7. TRIDEC Cloud - a Web-based Platform for Tsunami Early Warning tested with NEAMWave14 Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Spazier, Johannes; Reißland, Sven; Necmioglu, Ocal; Comoglu, Mustafa; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Carrilho, Fernando; Wächter, Joachim

    2015-04-01

    In times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms introduced by information and communications technology (ICT) have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in research projects new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based platform - the TRIDEC Cloud - to open up new prospects for EWS. The platform in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. It merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services for instant tsunami propagation calculations and automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The TRIDEC Cloud can be accessed in two different modes, the monitoring mode and the exercise-and-training mode. The monitoring mode provides important functionality required to act in a real event. So far, the monitoring mode integrates historic and real-time sea level data and latest earthquake information. The integration of sources is supported by a simple and secure interface. The exercise and training mode enables training and exercises with virtual scenarios. This mode disconnects real world systems and connects with a virtual environment that receives virtual earthquake information and virtual sea level data re-played by a scenario player. Thus operators and other stakeholders are able to train skills and prepare for real events and large exercises. The GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), and the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) have used the opportunity provided by NEAMWave14 to test the TRIDEC Cloud as a collaborative activity based on previous partnership and commitments at

  8. Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara S.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Soulard, Christopher E.

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected areas in close proximity to lands with a higher likelihood of future land-use conversion. Using a state-and-transition simulation model, we modeled spatially explicit (1 km2) land use from 2000 to 2100 under seven alternative land-use and emission scenarios for ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed scenario-based land-use conversion threats from logging, agriculture, and development near existing protected areas. A conversion threat index (CTI) was created to identify ecoregions with highest projected land-use conversion potential within closest proximity to existing protected areas. Our analysis indicated nearly 22% of land area in the Coast Range, over 16% of land area in the Puget Lowland, and nearly 11% of the Cascades had very high CTI values. Broader regional-scale land-use change is projected to impact nearly 40% of the Coast Range, 30% of the Puget Lowland, and 24% of the Cascades (i.e., two highest CTI classes). A landscape level, scenario-based approach to modeling future land use helps identify ecoregions with existing protected areas at greater risk from regional land-use threats and can help prioritize future conservation efforts.

  9. Delivering an evidence-based outdoor journey intervention to people with stroke: Barriers and enablers experienced by community rehabilitation teams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Middleton Sandy

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Transferring knowledge from research into practice can be challenging, partly because the process involves a change in attitudes, roles and behaviour by individuals and teams. Helping teams to identify then target potential barriers may aid the knowledge transfer process. The aim of this study was to identify barriers and enablers, as perceived by allied health professionals, to delivering an evidence-based (Level 1 outdoor journey intervention for people with stroke. Methods A qualitative design and semi-structured interviews were used. Allied health professionals (n = 13 from two community rehabilitation teams were interviewed, before and after receiving feedback from a medical record audit and attending a training workshop. Interviews allowed participants to identify potential and actual barriers, as well as enablers to delivering the intervention. Qualitative data were analysed using theoretical domains described by Michie and colleagues. Results Two barriers to delivery of the intervention were the social influence of people with stroke and their family, and professionals' beliefs about their capabilities. Other barriers included professionals' knowledge and skills, their role identity, availability of resources, whether professionals remembered to provide the intervention, and how they felt about delivering the intervention. Enablers to delivering the intervention included a belief that they could deliver the intervention, a willingness to expand and share professional roles, procedures that reminded them what to do, and feeling good about helping people with stroke to participate. Conclusions This study represents one step in the quality improvement process. The interviews encouraged reflection by staff. We obtained valuable data which have been used to plan behaviour change interventions addressing identified barriers. Our methods may assist other researchers who need to design similar behaviour change interventions.

  10. Microalgae-based biodiesel: a multicriteria analysis of the production process using realistic scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Carmen M; Ríos, Sergio D; Torras, Carles; Salvadó, Joan; Mateo-Sanz, Josep M; Jiménez, Laureano

    2013-11-01

    Microalgae-based biodiesel has several benefits over other resources such as less land use, potential cultivation in non-fertile locations, faster growth and especially a high lipid-to-biodiesel yield. Nevertheless, the environmental and economic behavior for high scale production depends on several variables that must be addressed in the scale-up procedure. In this sense, rigorous modeling and multicriteria evaluation are performed in order to achieve optimal topology for third generation biodiesel production. Different scenarios and the most promising technologies tested at pilot scale are assessed. Besides, the sensitivity analysis allows the detection of key operating variables and assumptions that have a direct effect on the lipid content. The deviation of these variables may lead to an erroneous estimation of the scale-up performance of the technology reviewed in the microalgae-based biodiesel process. The modeling and evaluation of different scenarios of the harvesting, oil extraction and transesterification help to identify greener and cheaper alternatives. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Web-based hybrid-dimensional Visualization and Exploration of Cytological Localization Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovanci, Gökhan; Ghaffar, Mehmood; Sommer, Björn

    2016-12-21

    The CELLmicrocosmos 4.2 PathwayIntegration (CmPI) is a tool which provides hybrid-dimensional visualization and analysis of intracellular protein and gene localizations in the context of a virtual 3D environment. This tool is developed based on Java/Java3D/JOGL and provides a standalone application compatible to all relevant operating systems. However, it requires Java and the local installation of the software. Here we present the prototype of an alternative web-based visualization approach, using Three.js and D3.js. In this way it is possible to visualize and explore CmPI-generated localization scenarios including networks mapped to 3D cell components by just providing a URL to a collaboration partner. This publication describes the integration of the different technologies – Three.js, D3.js and PHP – as well as an application case: a localization scenario of the citrate cycle. The CmPI web viewer is available at: http://CmPIweb.CELLmicrocosmos.org.

  12. A model based bayesian solution for characterization of complex damage scenarios in aerospace composite structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, H; Leckey, Cara A C; Dick, A; Harvey, G; Dobson, J

    2018-01-01

    Ultrasonic damage detection and characterization is commonly used in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of aerospace composite components. In recent years there has been an increased development of guided wave based methods. In real materials and structures, these dispersive waves result in complicated behavior in the presence of complex damage scenarios. Model-based characterization methods utilize accurate three dimensional finite element models (FEMs) of guided wave interaction with realistic damage scenarios to aid in defect identification and classification. This work describes an inverse solution for realistic composite damage characterization by comparing the wavenumber-frequency spectra of experimental and simulated ultrasonic inspections. The composite laminate material properties are first verified through a Bayesian solution (Markov chain Monte Carlo), enabling uncertainty quantification surrounding the characterization. A study is undertaken to assess the efficacy of the proposed damage model and comparative metrics between the experimental and simulated output. The FEM is then parameterized with a damage model capable of describing the typical complex damage created by impact events in composites. The damage is characterized through a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo solution, enabling a flexible damage model capable of adapting to the complex damage geometry investigated here. The posterior probability distributions of the individual delamination petals as well as the overall envelope of the damage site are determined. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Realisable scenarios for a future electricity supply based 100% on renewable energies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Czisch, G. [Univ. of Kassel, Inst. for Electrical Engineering - Efficient Energy Conversion (Germany); Giebel, G. [Risoe National Lab., DTU, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2007-05-15

    In view of the resource and climate problems, it seems obvious that we must transform our energy system into one using only renewable energies. But questions arise how such a system should be structured, which techniques should be used and, of course, how costly it might be. These questions were the focus of a study which investigated the cost optimum of a future renewable electricity supply for Europe and its closer Asian and African neighbourhood. The resulting scenarios are based on a broad data basis of the electricity consumption and for renewable energies. A linear optimisation determines the best system configuration and temporal dispatch of all components. The outcome of the scenarios can be considered as being a scientific breakthrough since it proves that a totally renewable electricity supply is possible even with current technology and at the same time is affordable for our national economies. In the conservative base case scenario, wind power would dominate the production spread over the better wind areas within the whole supply area, connected with the demand centres via HVDC transmission. The transmission system, furthermore, powerfully integrates the existing storage hydropower to provide for backup co-equally assisted by biomass power and supported by solar thermal electricity. The main results of the different scenarios can be summarized as follows: 1) A totally renewable electricity supply for Europe and its neighbourhood is possible and affordable. 2) Electricity import from non-European neighbour countries can be a very valuable and substantial component of a future supply. 3) Smoothing effects by the use of sources at locations in different climate zones improve the security of the supply and reduce the costs. 4) A large-scale co-operation of many different countries opens up for the possibility to combine the goals of development policy and climate politics in a multilateral win-win strategy. To aid implementation, an international extension

  14. Diagnosing Surgical Site Infection Using Wound Photography: A Scenario-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanger, Patrick C; Simianu, Vlad V; Gaskill, Cameron E; Armstrong, Cheryl A L; Hartzler, Andrea L; Lordon, Ross J; Lober, William B; Evans, Heather L

    2017-01-01

    Postoperative surgical site infections (SSI) are common and costly. Most occur post discharge, and can result in potentially preventable readmission or unnecessary urgent evaluation. Mobile health approaches incorporating patient-generated wound photos are being implemented in an attempt to optimize triage and management. We assessed how adding wound photos to existing data sources modifies provider decision making. We used a web-based simulation survey using a convenience sample of providers with expertise in surgical infections. Participants viewed a range of scenarios, including surgical history, physical exam, and description of wound appearance. All participants reported SSI diagnosis, diagnostic confidence, and management recommendations (main outcomes) first without, and then with, accompanying wound photos. At each step, participants ranked the most important features contributing to their decision. Eighty-three participants completed a median of 5 scenarios (interquartile range 4 to 7). Most participants were physicians in academic surgical specialties (n = 70 [84%]). The addition of photos improved overall diagnostic accuracy from 67% to 76% (p < 0.001), and increased specificity from 77% to 92% (p < 0.001), but did not significantly increase sensitivity (55% to 65%; p = 0.16). Photos increased mean confidence in diagnosis from 5.9 of 10 to 7.4 of 10 (p < 0.001). Overtreatment recommendations decreased from 48% to 16% (p < 0.001), and undertreatment did not change (28% to 23%; p = 0.20) with the addition of photos. The addition of wound photos to existing data as available via chart review and telephone consultation with patients significantly improved diagnostic accuracy and confidence, and prevented proposed overtreatment in scenarios without SSI. Post-discharge mobile health technologies have the potential to facilitate patient-centered care, decrease costs, and improve clinical outcomes. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by

  15. Using Groupware to Build a Scenario-Based Early Warning System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mullekom, T.L. van; Vennix, J.A.M.

    2004-01-01

    Scenario analysis has been used as a technique to support strategy formulation for several decades. During scenario analyses, the effects of different possible futures (scenarios) on the performance of an organization are assessed. Moreover, actions are formulated to deal with these effects. This

  16. Realism in paediatric emergency simulations: A prospective comparison of in situ, low fidelity and centre-based, high fidelity scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Leary, Fenton; Pegiazoglou, Ioannis; McGarvey, Kathryn; Novakov, Ruza; Wolfsberger, Ingrid; Peat, Jennifer

    2017-11-16

    To measure scenario participant and faculty self-reported realism, engagement and learning for the low fidelity, in situ simulations and compare this to high fidelity, centre-based simulations. A prospective survey of scenario participants and faculty completing in situ and centre-based paediatric simulations. There were 382 responses, 276 from scenario participants and 106 from faculty with 241 responses from in situ and 141 from centre-based simulations. Scenario participant responses showed significantly higher ratings for the centre-based simulations for respiratory rate (P = 0.007), pulse (P = 0.036), breath sounds (P = 0.002), heart sounds (P realism for engagement and learning. © 2017 The Authors Emergency Medicine Australasia published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

  17. Indoor and Outdoor Monitoring of Volatile Organic Compounds in School Buildings: Indicators Based on Health Risk Assessment to Single out Critical Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianluigi de Gennaro

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Children are more sensitive to pollutants than adults and yet they spend large amounts of time in school environments where they are exposed to unknown levels of indoor pollutants. This study investigated the concentrations of the most abundant volatile organic compounds (VOCs in eight naturally ventilated school buildings in Italy. The schools were chosen to include areas with different urbanization and traffic density characteristics in order to gather a more diverse picture of exposure risks in the different areas of the city. VOCs were sampled for one week in the presence/absence of pupils using diffusive samplers suitable for thermal desorption inside three classrooms at each school. The samples were then analyzed with thermal desorption-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (TD-GC-MS. In addition, outdoor measurements were carried out in the yard at each school. VOC identification and quantification, and indoor/outdoor concentration plots were used to identify pollutant sources. While some classrooms were found to have very low VOC levels, others had a significant indoor contribution or a prevalent outdoor contribution. High concentrations of terpenes were found in all monitored classrooms: a-pinene and limonene were in the range of 6.55–34.18 µg/m3 and 11.11–25.42 µg/m3 respectively. Outdoor concentrations were lower than indoors for each monitored school. Indicators based on health risk assessment for chronic health effects associated with VOCs (either carcinogenic or non-carcinogenic were proposed to rank sites according to their hazard level.

  18. Scoping Report for a Scenario-Based Planning Protocol for Application in the Regions of Army Installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-12-01

    boards, planning organizations, and other interest groups. The objective of this work is to describe a regional scenario-based land use planning methodology...and explore how a standardized protocol for comprehensive military land use planning in a regional context could be developed and applied. This...military land use planning , and presents characteristics and criteria for development of a generalized scenario-based planning protocol adapted for military

  19. Microalgae-based biodiesel: economic analysis of downstream process realistic scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ríos, Sergio D; Torres, Carmen M; Torras, Carles; Salvadó, Joan; Mateo-Sanz, Josep M; Jiménez, Laureano

    2013-05-01

    Microalgae oil has been identified as a reliable resource for biodiesel production due to its high lipid productivity and potential cultivation in non-fertile locations. However, high scale production of microalgae based biodiesel depends on the optimization of the entire process to be economically feasible. The selected strain, medium, harvesting methods, etc., sorely affects the ash content in the dry biomass which have a direct effect in the lipid content. Moreover, the suitable lipids for biodiesel production, some of the neutral/saponifiable, are only a fraction of the total ones (around 30% dry base biomass in the best case). The present work uses computational tools for the modeling of different scenarios of the harvesting, oil extraction and transesterification. This rigorous modeling approach detects process bottlenecks that could have led to an overestimation of the potentiality of the microalgae lipids as a resource for the biodiesel production. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. A Scenario-Based Framework for Multicriteria Decision Analysis in Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Theodor J.; Scott, Leanne

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the evolution of a general group decision-making or negotiation support procedure for water resources planning at a strategic level (such as regional development planning), based on principles of multicriteria decision analysis. A number of difficulties have been encountered in applying many of the standard multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) tools and techniques directly in this context. The paper introduces a broader framework in which these difficulties may be overcome, so that MCDM tools can be used effectively for evaluating strategic planning options. This framework is based on direct evaluation of sequences of "policy scenarios," which are neither a full set of possible planning "alternatives," nor fully specified down to the finest level of detail. The overall procedure and some experiences in applying it within the context of regional water resource planning in South Africa are discussed.

  1. Scenario-based Simulation of Criticality Concerning the Transportation of Dangerous Goods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badea Dorel

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The critical infrastructure protection domain, through its social implications, is a relatively new research topic, and a science in this regard is not setup yet. Its complexity, through the operational subsumed areas, through the interdependencies and cascading possible effects, through the many facets for investigation, is a special one which imposes specific approaches. This paper intends to continue the investigations in this field, which are conducted in an individual manner or by research teams, by authors with concerns in this regard who agreed to allocate to the topical subject a special attention based on its importance, beyond an exclusive approach – as a special topic. This time, there are brought into attention the issues related to chemical industry sector correlated with actual associated implications of necessary transportation activities in this field. Simulation-based scenario is the main technique employed as a research methodology by using dedicated software.

  2. Methodology To Define Drought Management Scenarios Based On Accumulated Future Projections Of Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haro-Monteagudo, David; Solera-Solera, Abel; Andreu-Álvarez, Joaquín

    2014-05-01

    Drought is a serious threat to many water resources systems in the world. Especially to those in which the equilibrium between resources availability and water uses is very fragile, making that deviation below normality compromises the capacity of the system to cope with all the demands and environmental requirements. Since droughts are not isolated events but instead they develop through time in what could be considered a creeping behavior, it is very difficult to determine when an episode starts and how long will it last. Because this is a major concern for water managers and society in general, scientific research has strived to develop indices that allow evaluating the risk of a drought event occurrence. These indices often have as basis previous and current state variables of the system that combined between them supply decision making responsible with an indication of the risk of being in a situation of drought, normally through the definition of a drought scenario situation. While this way of proceeding has found to be effective in many systems, there are cases in which indicators systems fail to define the appropriate on-going drought scenario early enough to start measures that allowed to minimize the possible impacts. This is the case, for example, of systems with high seasonal precipitation variability. The use of risk assessment models to evaluate future possible states of the system becomes handy in cases like the previous one, although they are not limited to such systems. We present a method to refine the drought scenario definition within a water resources system. To implement this methodology, we use a risk assessment model generalized to water resources systems based in the stochastic generation of multiple possible future streamflows generation and the simulation of the system from a Monte-Carlo approach. We do this assessment every month of the year up to the end of the hydrologic year that normally corresponds with the end of the irrigation

  3. Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Chen

    Full Text Available This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU, energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI, low carbon scenario (LC and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC. The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

  4. Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan M Requena-Mullor

    Full Text Available As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the

  5. Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

    2017-01-01

    As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological

  6. Assessing nitrate leaching losses with simulation scenarios and model based fertiliser recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalczyk, A.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Hartmann, T.; Yue, S. C.; Chen, X. P.

    2012-04-01

    Excessive mineral nitrogen fertiliser application and irrigation in intensive agricultural cropping systems is seen as a major reason for low water and nitrogen use efficiencies in the North China Plain. High nitrogen fertiliser and irrigation water inputs do not only lead to higher production costs but also to decreasing ground water tables, nitrate accumulation in deeper soil layers below the root zone and water pollution. To evaluate the effects of improved management practices on environmental pollution risk, the HERMES model is used to simulate nitrate leaching losses. The HERMES model is a dynamic, process based crop model made for practical applications such as fertiliser recommendations. The model was tested and validated on two field studies in the south of the Hebei Province that lasted for about three years with a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.) double cropping system. Biomass, grain yield, plant N uptake and soil water content were better simulated than mineral nitrogen in the soil. A model based nitrogen fertiliser recommendation was applied in the field for one wheat crop. The parallel model simulation showed satisfying results. Although there was no change in the amount of irrigation, the results indicated a possibility to reduce the fertiliser rate and thus nitrogen leaching even more than in the reduced treatment without reducing crop yields. Further more a simulation scenario with a model based fertiliser recommendation and a field capacity based irrigation was compared to farmers practice and reduced nitrogen treatment. The scenario results showed that the model recommendation together with the reduced irrigation has the highest potential to reduce nitrate leaching. The results also showed that flood irrigation as practiced by the farmers and its difficult to estimate amounts of water bears a big uncertainty for modelling.

  7. Possible Futures towards a Wood-Based Bioeconomy: A Scenario Analysis for Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Hagemann

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Driven by the growing awareness of the finite nature of fossil raw materials and the need for sustainable pathways of industrial production, the bio-based economy is expected to expand worldwide. Policy strategies such as the European Union Bioeconomy Strategy and national bioeconomy strategies foster this process. Besides the advantages promised by a transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy, these processes have to cope with significant uncertainties as many influencing factors play a role, such as climate change, technological and economic development, sustainability risks, dynamic consumption patterns and policy and governance issues. Based on a literature review and an expert survey, we identify influence factors for the future development of a wood-based bioeconomy in Germany. Four scenarios are generated based on different assumptions about the development of relevant influence factors. We discuss what developments in politics, industry and society have a central impact on shaping alternative futures. As such, the paper provides a knowledge base and orientation for decision makers and practitioners, and contributes to the scientific discussion on how the bioeconomy could develop. We conclude that the wood-based bioeconomy has a certain potential to develop further, if adequate political framework conditions are implemented and meet voter support, if consumers exhibit an enhanced willingness to pay for bio-based products, and if among companies, a chance-oriented advocacy coalition of bioeconomy supporters dominates over proponents of fossil pathways.

  8. A Novel Cooperation-Based Network Coding Scheme for Walking Scenarios in WBANs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongyun Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs, the tradeoff between network throughput and energy efficiency remains a key challenge. Most current transmission schemes try to cope with the challenge from the perspective of general Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs, which may not take the peculiarities of WBAN channels into account. In this paper, we take advantage of the correlation of on-body channels in walking scenarios to achieve a better tradeoff between throughput and energy consumption. We first analyze the characteristics of on-body channels based on realistic channel gain datasets, which are collected by our customized wireless transceivers in walking scenarios. The analytical results confirm the rationale of our newly proposed transmission scheme A3NC, which explores the combination of the aggregative allocation (AA mechanism in MAC layer and the Analog Network Coding (ANC technique in PHY layer. Both theoretical analyses and simulation results show that the A3NC scheme achieves significant improvement in upload throughput and energy efficiency, compared to the conventional approaches.

  9. Supporting Problem Solving with Case-Stories Learning Scenario and Video-based Collaborative Learning Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Hu

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we suggest that case-based resources, which are used for assisting cognition during problem solving, can be structured around the work of narratives in social cultural psychology. Theories and other research methods have proposed structures within narratives and stories which may be useful to the design of case-based resources. Moreover, embedded within cases are stories which are contextually rich, supporting the epistemological groundings of situated cognition. Therefore the purposes of this paper are to discuss possible frameworks of case-stories; derive design principles as to “what” constitutes a good case story or narrative; and suggest how technology can support story-based learning. We adopt video-based Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning (CSCL technology to support problem solving with case-stories learning scenarios. Our hypothesis in this paper is that well-designed case-based resources are able to aid in the cognitive processes undergirding problem solving and meaning making. We also suggest the use of an emerging video-based collaborative learning technology to support such an instructional strategy.

  10. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Ship accessibility predictions for the Arctic Ocean based on IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Jai-Ho; Woo, Sumin; Yang, Sin-Il

    2017-02-01

    Changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice, which have resulted from climate change, offer new opportunities to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) for shipping. However, choosing to navigate the Arctic Ocean remains challenging due to the limited accessibility of ships and the balance between economic gain and potential risk. As a result, more precise and detailed information on both weather and sea ice change in the Arctic are required. In this study, a high-resolution global AGCM was used to provide detailed information on the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. For this simulation, we have simulated the AMIP-type simulation for the present-day climate during 31 years from 1979 to 2009 with observed SST and Sea Ice concentration. For the future climate projection, we have performed the historical climate during 1979-2005 and subsequently the future climate projection during 2010-2099 with mean of four CMIP5 models due to the two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5). First, the AMIP-type simulation was evaluated by comparison with observations from the Hadley Centre sea-ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadlSST) dataset. The model reflects the maximum (in March) and minimum (in September) sea ice extent and annual cycle. Based on this validation, the future sea ice extents show the decreasing trend for both the maximum and minimum seasons and RCP 8.5 shows more sharply decreasing patterns of sea ice than RCP 4.5. Under both scenarios, ships classified as Polar Class (PC) 3 and Open-Water (OW) were predicted to have the largest and smallest number of ship-accessible days (in any given year) for the NSR and NWP, respectively. Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projections suggest that after 2070, PC3 and PC6 vessels will have year-round access across to the Arctic Ocean. In contrast, OW vessels will continue to have a seasonal handicap, inhibiting their ability to pass through the NSR and NWP.

  12. Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

    2013-04-01

    The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed

  13. Emerging Requirements for Technology Management: A Sector-based Scenario Planning Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Patrick Philbin

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Identifying the emerging requirements for technology management will help organisations to prepare for the future and remain competitive. Indeed technology management as a discipline needs to develop and respond to societal and industrial needs as well as the corresponding technology challenges. Therefore, following a review of technology forecasting methodologies, a sector-based scenario planning approach has been used to derive the emerging requirements for technology management. This structured framework provided an analytical lens to focus on the requirements for managing technology in the healthcare, energy and higher education sectors over the next 5-10 years. These requirements include the need for new business models to support the adoption of technologies; integration of new technologies with existing delivery channels; management of technology options including R&D project management; technology standards, validation and interoperability; and decision-making tools to support technology investment.

  14. Economics of Outdoor Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clawson, Marion; Knetsch, Jack L.

    Written for the purposes of presenting an overview of outdoor recreation in the United States and defining the significant outdoor recreation policy issues of the next 10 to 20 years, this document also includes major sections on recreation resources and economic considerations. Projections to the year 2000 are made for a national time budget,…

  15. Selected Outdoor Recreation Statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bureau of Outdoor Recreation (Dept. of Interior), Washington, DC.

    In this recreational information report, 96 tables are compiled from Bureau of Outdoor Recreation programs and surveys, other governmental agencies, and private sources. Eight sections comprise the document: (1) The Bureau of Outdoor Recreation, (2) Federal Assistance to Recreation, (3) Recreation Surveys for Planning, (4) Selected Statistics of…

  16. Scenario-Based Training on Human Errors Contributing to Security Incidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Pond, Daniel J.; Jannotta, Marjorie

    2004-12-06

    Error assessment studies reveal that ''human errors'' are often the consequence of unsuitable environmental factors, ineffective systems, inappropriate task conditions, and individual actions or failures to act. The US Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a program to determine if system-induced human errors could also be contributing factors to security incidents. As the seminal basis for this work, the Enhanced Security Through Human Error Reduction (ESTHER) program at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) produced a contributing factors data set and systems categorization for security related incidents attributed to human error. This material supports the development and delivery of training for security incident inquiry officials. While LANL's initial work focused on classroom training, a collaborative effort between LANL and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has focused on delivering interactive e-Learning training applications based on ESTHER principles. Through training, inquiry officials will understand and be capable of applying the underlying human error control concepts to new or novel situations. Their performance requires a high degree of analysis and judgment to accomplish the associated cognitive and procedural tasks. To meet this requirement, we employed cognitive principles of instructional design to engage the learner in interactive, realistic, problem-centered activity; we constructed scenarios within a guided-discovery framework; and we utilized learner-centered developmental sequences leading to field application. To enhance the relevance and realism of the training experience, we employed 3-D modeling technologies in constructing interactive scenarios. This paper describes the application of cognitive learning principles, use of varied media, and the implementation challenges in developing a technology-rich, interactive security incident training program that includes Web-based training.

  17. Outdoor recreation and ethnicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentin, Sandra

    similarities and differences in outdoor recreation patterns of adolescents with ethnic Danish and ethnic minority background. There are e.g. no differences in the number of days spent on outdoor recreation pr. year. Among both the ethnic Danish and ethnic minority group adolescents, the stated reasons...... for visiting natural areas were most often social, such as being with family and friends, and health and well-being reasons (exercise and relaxing from stress). However, the ethnic minority adolescents more often stated “to be with family” as an important reason for visiting green spaces compared...... to their ethnic Danish counterparts. The adolescents use different areas for outdoor recreation: the adolescents with ethnic Danish background use sports grounds for outdoor recreation, while adolescents with ethnic minority backgrounds use urban green spaces for outdoor recreation. For activities reported...

  18. Leptospirosis Risk in Outdoor Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Submit Button Past Emails Leptospirosis Risk in Outdoor Activities Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir People who enjoy outdoor activities where freshwater or wet soil are encountered may ...

  19. Exploring virtual worlds for scenario-based repeated team training of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creutzfeldt, Johan; Hedman, Leif; Medin, Christopher; Heinrichs, Wm LeRoy; Felländer-Tsai, Li

    2010-09-03

    Contemporary learning technologies, such as massively multiplayer virtual worlds (MMVW), create new means for teaching and training. However, knowledge about the effectiveness of such training is incomplete, and there are no data regarding how students experience it. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is a field within medicine in high demand for new and effective training modalities. In addition to finding a feasible way to implement CPR training, our aim was to investigate how a serious game setting in a virtual world using avatars would influence medical students' subjective experiences as well as their retention of knowledge. An MMVW was refined and used in a study to train 12 medical students in CPR in 3-person teams in a repeated fashion 6 months apart. An exit questionnaire solicited reflections over their experiences. As the subjects trained in 4 CPR scenarios, measurements of self-efficacy, concentration, and mental strain were made in addition to measuring knowledge. Engagement modes and coping strategies were also studied. Parametric and nonparametric statistical analyses were carried out according to distribution of the data. The majority of the subjects reported that they had enjoyed the training, had found it to be suitable, and had learned something new, although several asked for more difficult and complex scenarios as well as a richer virtual environment. The mean values for knowledge dropped during the 6 months from 8.0/10 to 6.25/10 (P = .002). Self-efficacy increased from before to after each of the two training sessions, from 5.9/7 to 6.5/7 (P = .01) after the first and from 6.0/7 to 6.7/7 (P = .03) after the second. The mean perceived concentration value increased from 54.2/100 to 66.6/100 (P = .006), and in general the mental strain was found to be low to moderate (mean = 2.6/10). Using scenario-based virtual world team training with avatars to train medical students in multi-person CPR was feasible and showed promising results. Although we

  20. Assessment and comparison of total RF-EMF exposure in femtocell and macrocell base station scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Sam; Plets, David; Verloock, Leen; Martens, Luc; Joseph, Wout

    2014-12-01

    The indoor coverage of a mobile service can be drastically improved by deployment of an indoor femtocell base station (FBS). However, the impact of its proximity on the total exposure of the human body to radio-frequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMFs) is unknown. Using a framework designed for the combination of near-field and far-field exposure, the authors assessed and compared the RF-EMF exposure of a mobile-phone (MP) user that is either connected to an FBS or a conventional macrocell base station while in an office environment. It is found that, in average macrocell coverage and MP use-time conditions and for Universal Mobile Telecommunications System technology, the total exposure can be reduced by a factor of 20-40 by using an FBS, mostly due to the significant decrease in the output power of the MP. In general, the framework presented in this study can be used for any exposure scenario, featuring any number of technologies, base stations and/or access points, users and duration. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. AI-based (ANN and SVM) statistical downscaling methods for precipitation estimation under climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehrvand, Masoud; Baghanam, Aida Hosseini; Razzaghzadeh, Zahra; Nourani, Vahid

    2017-04-01

    Since statistical downscaling methods are the most largely used models to study hydrologic impact studies under climate change scenarios, nonlinear regression models known as Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based models such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) have been used to spatially downscale the precipitation outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs). The study has been carried out using GCM and station data over GCM grid points located around the Peace-Tampa Bay watershed weather stations. Before downscaling with AI-based model, correlation coefficient values have been computed between a few selected large-scale predictor variables and local scale predictands to select the most effective predictors. The selected predictors are then assessed considering grid location for the site in question. In order to increase AI-based downscaling model accuracy pre-processing has been developed on precipitation time series. In this way, the precipitation data derived from various GCM data analyzed thoroughly to find the highest value of correlation coefficient between GCM-based historical data and station precipitation data. Both GCM and station precipitation time series have been assessed by comparing mean and variances over specific intervals. Results indicated that there is similar trend between GCM and station precipitation data; however station data has non-stationary time series while GCM data does not. Finally AI-based downscaling model have been applied to several GCMs with selected predictors by targeting local precipitation time series as predictand. The consequences of recent step have been used to produce multiple ensembles of downscaled AI-based models.

  2. BlueDetect: An iBeacon-Enabled Scheme for Accurate and Energy-Efficient Indoor-Outdoor Detection and Seamless Location-Based Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Zou

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The location and contextual status (indoor or outdoor is fundamental and critical information for upper-layer applications, such as activity recognition and location-based services (LBS for individuals. In addition, optimizations of building management systems (BMS, such as the pre-cooling or heating process of the air-conditioning system according to the human traffic entering or exiting a building, can utilize the information, as well. The emerging mobile devices, which are equipped with various sensors, become a feasible and flexible platform to perform indoor-outdoor (IO detection. However, power-hungry sensors, such as GPS and WiFi, should be used with caution due to the constrained battery storage on mobile device. We propose BlueDetect: an accurate, fast response and energy-efficient scheme for IO detection and seamless LBS running on the mobile device based on the emerging low-power iBeacon technology. By leveraging the on-broad Bluetooth module and our proposed algorithms, BlueDetect provides a precise IO detection service that can turn on/off on-board power-hungry sensors smartly and automatically, optimize their performances and reduce the power consumption of mobile devices simultaneously. Moreover, seamless positioning and navigation services can be realized by it, especially in a semi-outdoor environment, which cannot be achieved by GPS or an indoor positioning system (IPS easily. We prototype BlueDetect on Android mobile devices and evaluate its performance comprehensively. The experimental results have validated the superiority of BlueDetect in terms of IO detection accuracy, localization accuracy and energy consumption.

  3. Improvement of nursing students' learning outcomes through scenario-based skills training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uysal, Nurcan

    2016-08-08

    this study analyzed the influence of scenario-based skills training on students' learning skills. the author evaluated the nursing skills laboratory exam papers of 605 sophomores in nursing programs for seven years. The study determined the common mistakes of students and the laboratory work was designed in a scenario-based format. The effectiveness of this method was evaluated by assessing the number of errors the students committed and their achievement scores in laboratory examinations. This study presents the students' common mistakes in intramuscular and subcutaneous injection and their development of intravenous access skills, included in the nursing skills laboratory examination. an analysis of the students' most common mistakes revealed that the most common was not following the principles of asepsis for all three skills (intramuscular, subcutaneous injection, intravenous access) in the first year of the scenario-based training. The students' exam achievement scores increased gradually, except in the fall semester of the academic year 2009-2010. The study found that the scenario-based skills training reduced students' common mistakes in examinations and enhanced their performance on exams. this method received a positive response from both students and instructors. The scenario-based training is available for use in addition to other skills training methods. en este estudio fue analizada la influencia de la capacitación basada en escenarios en las capacidades de aprendizaje de los alumnos. el autor evaluó los textos de exámenes de laboratorio de habilidades de enfermería producidos por 605 alumnos de segundo año en cursos de enfermería durante siete años. El estudio determinó los errores comunes de los alumnos y el trabajo en laboratorio adoptó el formato basado en escenarios. La eficacia de ese método fue evaluada mediante la cantidad de errores que los alumnos cometieron y sus notas de desempeño en exámenes de laboratorio. Este estudio

  4. Life cycle assessment of cell phones in Brazil based on two reverse logistics scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela da Gama e Silva Volpe Moreira de Moraes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is a result of a cell phone collection obtained at the Center for Information Technology Renato Archer (CTI under the AMBIENTRONIC Program, an initiative that supports the Brazilian electronic sector in the development of technologies for sustainability. The objective of this article is to assess two reverse logistic scenarios of cell phones using the technique of life-cycle assessment (LCA. The first scenario reflects the current scenario in Brazil, where batteries are recycled in Brazil and the other parts of the phones are outsourced to Europe. The second scenario is a proposal of full treatment in Brazil. The results indicate that the second scenario has a lower potential impact with important reduction of acidification, photochemical oxidation, eutrophication and the use of non-renewable energy. Furthermore, fully implementing reverse logistics in Brazil will enable socioeconomic benefits from the sale of materials and the generation of employment and income.

  5. Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on the SRES A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100, were adopted in...

  6. Introducing Scenario Based Learning interactive to postgraduates in UQ Orthodontic Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naser-ud-Din, S

    2015-08-01

    E-learning has gained momentum in health sciences and seems to have great potential in specialist dental education. Higher acceptability by learners is particularly associated with the surge of smart devices. Currently, there are limited number of e-learning modules available for dental education, particularly in Orthodontics. Scenario Based Learning interactive (SBLi(®)) software was used for the first time in Orthodontics Postgraduate training at the University of Queensland. Nine interactive modules were created embedded with clinical procedure videos, web-links, evidence-based literature, along with opportunity for self-assessment and evaluation. Qualitative data were collected before and after the administration of the SBLi(®) for Orthodontics. The purpose of this data was to investigate learning styles and the acceptance of e-modules as part of postgraduate training. Advantages of the package included high acceptance rate, greater confidence in the application of clinical skills covered in the modules and reduced contact time particularly with limited academic staff. E-modules demonstrated high compatibility with the learning styles of the participants and were considered engaging. It seems apparent that e-learning is most effective in a blended learning environment, supplemented with the traditional classroom approach, rather than as a sole mechanism for postgraduate training. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Application of State Analysis and Goal-based Operations to a MER Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, John Richard; Ingham, Michel D.; Mishkin, Andrew H.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Starbird, Thomas W.

    2006-01-01

    State Analysis is a model-based systems engineering methodology employing a rigorous discovery process which articulates operations concepts and operability needs as an integrated part of system design. The process produces requirements on system and software design in the form of explicit models which describe the system behavior in terms of state variables and the relationships among them. By applying State Analysis to an actual MER flight mission scenario, this study addresses the specific real world challenges of complex space operations and explores technologies that can be brought to bear on future missions. The paper first describes the tools currently used on a daily basis for MER operations planning and provides an in-depth description of the planning process, in the context of a Martian day's worth of rover engineering activities, resource modeling, flight rules, science observations, and more. It then describes how State Analysis allows for the specification of a corresponding goal-based sequence that accomplishes the same objectives, with several important additional benefits.

  8. Outdoor recreation and ethnicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentin, Sandra

    to their ethnic Danish counterparts. The adolescents use different areas for outdoor recreation: the adolescents with ethnic Danish background use sports grounds for outdoor recreation, while adolescents with ethnic minority backgrounds use urban green spaces for outdoor recreation. For activities reported...... often reported using green areas to “drink beer with friends” and “do sunbathing”. The third paper reflects on the different national approaches towards ethnic minorities’ access to natural areas, in four example-countries Germany, Denmark, United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. This was done through...

  9. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

    2011-01-07

    No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

  10. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Epstein Richard H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

  11. Design Considerations for a Case-Based Reasoning Engine for Scenario-Based Cyber Incident Notification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-01

    28]. There have been various models created to describe the CBR process; however, the most popular one was developed by Aamodt and Plaza [18], as...34 Information Processing and Management, vol. 34, pp. 219-236, 1998. [18] A. Aamodt and E. Plaza, "Case-based reasoning: foundational issues

  12. A Simulation-based, cognitive assessment of resident decision making during complex urinary catheterization scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathwani, Jay N; Law, Katherine E; Witt, Anna K; Ray, R D; DiMarco, S M; Pugh, C M

    2017-04-01

    This study explores general surgery residents' decision making skills in uncommon, complex urinary catheter scenarios. 40 residents were presented with two scenarios. Scenario A was a male with traumatic urethral injury and scenario B was a male with complete urinary blockage. Residents verbalized whether they would catheterize the patient and described the workup and management of suspected pathologies. Residents' decision paths were documented and analyzed. In scenario A, 45% of participants chose to immediately consult Urology. 47.5% named five diagnostic tests to decide if catheterization was safe. In scenario B, 27% chose to catheterize with a 16 French Coude. When faced with catheterization failure, participants randomly upsized or downsized catheters. Chi-square analysis revealed no measurable consensus amongst participants. Residents need more training in complex decision making for urinary catheterization. The decision trees generated in this study provide a useful blueprint of residents' learning needs. Exploration of general surgery residents' decision making skills in uncommon, complex urinary catheter scenarios revealed major deficiencies. The resulting decision trees reveal residents' learning needs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. PARENTS ATTITUDE ABOUT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragan Martinović

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available A questionnaire-based survey was conducted on a sample of 238 parents whose children attend the third and fourth grades in two Belgrade elementary schools: “Oslobodioci Beograda” and “Borislav Pekic”. The aim of this study was to deter¬mi¬ne the incidence of outdoor activities and the attitude of the third and fourth graders’ parents towards it. Statistical data processing was based on the use of the –R, and every question represented a random variable. The analysis of the collected data has proved the presence of outdoor activities among these pupils and their positive attitude towards camping out, as well as a positive attitude of their parents.

  14. Proposition of updating the method used in calculating the heat demand based on a new concept of design outdoor temperature and of building – soil boundary heat transfer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan CONSTANTINESCU

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The dimensioning of the heating systems equipping new and existing buildings, in the case of their energy-related upgrading is an extremely important activity in the context of reaching the targets of the European Directive 31 /2010 / UE concerning the Buildings Energy Performance (PEC. The accurate determination, phenomenological based, of the buildings thermal response leads to determining the climatic parameters representative for the climatic zones and for the buildings structure.Unlike the EN 12831: 2003 European Regulation, the design outdoor temperature in the conditions of Romania’s various zones was determined by the identification of the thermal response specific to the transient conditions of the heat transfer through the composite structures of the opaque and glazing closing components with the thermal response in idealized, steadystate conditions; thus, the design outdoor temperature was determined, which is conditioned by an acceptable discomfort during the coldest pentads of a 48 years climatic statistics (1961-2008. The climatic parameter which generates the modeling similitude is the virtual outdoor temperature which allows the use of the steady-state conditions mathematical formalism in issues of heat transfer in transient conditions. A dependency relation between the design indoor temperature, identical to the resulting indoor temperature (different from the operational temperature and the air volume average temperature is emphasized.Special attention is given to the heat transfer at the building-soil boundary, in the form of various practical solutions (buildings the basement of which is not directly heated, equipped or not with heating systems, directly heated and occupied, as well as buildings on plinths; in all the cases, the solutions approached are specific to the envelope which is or not thermally insulated.

  15. Economic and environmental evaluation of three goal-vision based scenarios for organic dairy farming in Denmark.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oudshoorn, F.W.; Sorensen, C.A.G.; Boer, de I.J.M.

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to explore the sustainability of future organic dairy farming systems in Denmark, by evaluating the economic and environmental consequences of three scenarios at the farm level based on different visions of future sustainability leading to different farm-based goals.

  16. Four Scenarios for Europe. Based on UNEP's third Global Environment Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bakkes, J. [National Institute for Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Gaponenko, N. [Analytical Centre on Science and Industrial Policy, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); Mnatsakanian, R. [Central European University, Budapest (Hungary)

    2003-07-01

    The third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) was published on the eve of the Johannesburg summit (autumn 2002). GEO-3 looked back thirty years and forward thirty years. A set of what-if scenarios was used to explore the ways our society can advance, including implications for environmental and social goals. Characteristically, GEO-3 examines in a relatively deep fashion how its global scenarios can be interpreted in the context of each of the world's regions. This brochure presents the pan-European elaboration of the four GEO-3 scenarios. It focusses on the scenarios proper and their impacts in environmental terms. The scenarios are: The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the currently prevailing values and expectations in industrialized countries; In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to achieve specific social and environmental goals; The Security First scenario assumes a world full of large disparities, where inequality and conflict, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses, prevail: and Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability supported by new, more equitable values and institutions. The second section describes 'the pan-European tale of the four futures' in a predominantly qualitative manner. Section 3 presents a regionally differentiated examination of the environmental implications of the scenarios. Details on input material, assumptions and methodologies applied, and actual results, can be found in Chapter 4 of GEO-3 'Outlook 2002-32' and in the Technical Background Report on GEO-3 Scenario Work.

  17. Selection of an appropriate wastewater treatment technology: a scenario-based multiple-attribute decision-making approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalbar, Pradip P; Karmakar, Subhankar; Asolekar, Shyam R

    2012-12-30

    Many technological alternatives for wastewater treatment are available, ranging from advanced technologies to conventional treatment options. It is difficult to select the most appropriate technology from among a set of available alternatives to treat wastewater at a particular location. Many factors, such as capital costs, operation and maintenance costs and land requirement, are involved in the decision-making process. Sustainability criteria must also be incorporated into the decision-making process such that appropriate technologies are selected for developing economies such as that of India. A scenario-based multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) methodology has been developed and applied to the selection of wastewater treatment alternative. The four most commonly used wastewater treatment technologies for treatment of municipal wastewater in India are ranked for various scenarios. Six scenarios are developed that capture the regional and local societal priorities of urban, suburban and rural areas and translate them into the mathematical algorithm of the MADM methodology. The articulated scenarios depict the most commonly encountered decision-making situations in addressing technology selection for wastewater treatment in India. A widely used compensatory MADM technique, TOPSIS, has been selected to rank the alternatives. Seven criteria with twelve indicators are formulated to evaluate the alternatives. Different weight matrices are used for each scenario, depending on the priorities of the scenario. This study shows that it is difficult to select the most appropriate wastewater treatment alternative under the "no scenario" condition (equal weights given to each attribute), and the decision-making methodology presented in this paper effectively identifies the most appropriate wastewater treatment alternative for each of the scenarios. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Projecting the environmental profile of Singapore's landfill activities: Comparisons of present and future scenarios based on LCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoo, Hsien H; Tan, Lester L Z; Tan, Reginald B H

    2012-05-01

    This article aims to generate the environmental profile of Singapore's Semakau landfill by comparing three different operational options associated with the life cycle stages of landfilling activities, against a 'business as usual' scenario. Before life cycle assessment or LCA is used to quantify the potential impacts from landfilling activities, an attempt to incorporate localized and empirical information into the amounts of ash and MSW sent to the landfill was made. A linear regression representation of the relationship between the mass of waste disposed and the mass of incineration ash generated was modeled from waste statistics between years 2004 and 2009. Next, the mass of individual MSW components was projected from 2010 to 2030. The LCA results highlighted that in a 'business as usual' scenario the normalized total impacts of global warming, acidification and human toxicity increased by about 2% annually from 2011 to 2030. By replacing the 8000-tonne barge with a 10000-tonne coastal bulk carrier or freighter (in scenario 2) a grand total reduction of 48% of both global warming potential and acidification can be realized by year 2030. Scenario 3 explored the importance of having a Waste Water Treatment Plant in place to reduce human toxicity levels - however, the overall long-term benefits were not as significant as scenario 2. It is shown in scenario 4 that the option of increased recycling championed over all other three scenarios in the long run, resulting in a total 58% reduction in year 2030 for the total normalized results. A separate comparison of scenarios 1-4 is also carried out for energy utilization and land use in terms of volume of waste occupied. Along with the predicted reductions in environmental burdens, an additional bonus is found in the expanded lifespan of Semakau landfill from year 2032 (base case) to year 2039. Model limitations and suggestions for improvements were also discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Outdoor fitness routine

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000891.htm Outdoor fitness routine To use the sharing features on this ... you and is right for your level of fitness. Here are some ideas: Warm up first. Get ...

  20. Outdoor air Pollution

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Forbes, PBC

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available regions. Ambient air pollution relates to the quality of outdoor air and will be discussed in this chapter, with a focus on the air pollutants which are typically regulated in this context internationally....

  1. Enhancing electronic health record usability in pediatric patient care: a scenario-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Emily S; Zhang, Jiajie; Abbott, Patricia; Gibbons, Michael C; Lowry, Svetlana Z; Quinn, Matthew T; Ramaiah, Mala; Brick, David

    2013-03-01

    Usability of electronic health records (EHRs) is an important factor affecting patient safety and the EHR adoption rate for both adult and pediatric care providers. A panel of interdisciplinary experts (the authors) was convened by the National Institute of Standards and Technology to generate consensus recommendations to improve EHR usefulness, usability, and patient safety when supporting pediatric care, with a focus on critical user interactions. The panel members represented expertise in the disciplines of human factors engineering (HFE), usability, informatics, and pediatrics in ambulatory care and pediatric intensive care. An iterative, scenario-based approach was used to identify unique considerations in pediatric care and relevant human factors concepts. A draft of the recommendations were reviewed by invited experts in pediatric informatics, emergency medicine, neonatology, pediatrics, HFE, nursing, usability engineering, and software development and implementation. Recommendations for EHR developers, small-group pediatric medical practices, and children's hospitals were identified out of the original 54 recommendations, in terms of nine critical user interaction categories: patient identification, medications, alerts, growth chart, vaccinations, labs, newborn care, privacy, and radiology. Pediatric patient care has unique dimensions, with great complexity and high stakes for adverse events. The recommendations are anticipated to increase the rate of EHR adoption by pediatric care providers and improve patient safety for pediatric patients. The described methodology might be useful for accelerating adoption and increasing safety in a variety of clinical areas where the adoption of EHRs is lagging or usability issues are believed to reduce potential patient safety, efficiency, and quality benefits.

  2. Development of test scenarios for off-roadway crash countermeasures based on crash statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-09-01

    This report presents the results from an analysis of off-roadway crashes and proposes a set of crash-imminent scenarios to objectively test countermeasure systems for light vehicles (passenger cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and pickup trucks) ba...

  3. Scenario-based risk analysis of winter snowstorms in the German lowlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wulffen, Anja

    2014-05-01

    conditions. Based on these findings, an exemplary synoptic evolution of a snowstorm leading to representative infrastructure failure cascades is constructed. In a next step, an extrapolation of this obtained scenario to future climate and societal conditions as well as plausible more extreme but not yet observed meteorological conditions is planned in order to obtain a thorough analysis of possible threats to the German food distribution system and a strong foundation for future disaster mitigation planning efforts.

  4. Scenario Simulation-Based Assessment of Trip Difficulty for Urban Residents under Rainstorm Waterlogging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingyue Sun

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an experiment was performed to assess the trip difficulty for urban residents of different age groups walking in various depths of water, and the data were corroborated with the real urban rainstorm waterlogging scenarios in downtown (Daoli district Ha-Erbin (China. Mathematical models of urban rainstorm waterlogging were constructed using scenario simulation methods, aided by the GIS spatial analysis technology and hydrodynamic analysis of the waterway systems in the study area. Then these models were used to evaluate the impact of waterlogging on the safety of residents walking in the affected area. Results are summarized as: (1 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 10 years, three grid regions would have waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at a velocity of 1.5 m/s. Under this scenario, waterlogging would accumulate on traffic roads only in small areas, affecting the safety and mobility of residents walking in the neighborhood; (2 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 20 years, 13 grids experienced the same waterlogging situation affecting a larger area of the city; (3 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 50 years, 86 grid regions were affected (waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at 1.5 m/s, and those areas would become impassable for residents.

  5. Scenario-Based Analysis on Water Resources Implication of Coal Power in Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahai Yuan

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Currently, 58% of coal-fired power generation capacity is located in eastern China, where the demand for electricity is strong. Serious air pollution in China, in eastern regions in particular, has compelled the Chinese government to impose a ban on the new construction of pulverized coal power plants in eastern regions. Meanwhile, rapid economic growth is thirsty for electric power supply. As a response, China planned to build large-scale coal power bases in six western provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Ningxia and Gansu. In this paper, the water resource implication of the coal power base planning is addressed. We find that, in a business-as-usual (BAU scenario, water consumption for coal power generation in these six provinces will increase from 1130 million m3 in 2012 to 2085 million m3 in 2020, experiencing nearly a double growth. Such a surge will exert great pressure on water supply and lead to serious water crisis in these already water-starved regions. A strong implication is that the Chinese Government must add water resource constraint as a critical point in its overall sustainable development plan, in addition to energy supply and environment protection. An integrated energy-water resource plan with regionalized environmental carrying capacity as constraints should be developed to settle this puzzle. Several measures are proposed to cope with it, including downsizing coal power in western regions, raising the technical threshold of new coal power plants and implementing retrofitting to the inefficient cooling system, and reengineering the generation process to waterless or recycled means.

  6. Long-Term Outdoor Reliability Assessment of a Wireless Unit for Air-Quality Monitoring Based on Nanostructured Films Integrated on Micromachined Platforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimiliano Decarli

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available We have fabricated and tested in long-term field operating conditions a wireless unit for outdoor air quality monitoring. The unit is equipped with two multiparametric sensors, one miniaturized thermo-hygrometer, front-end analogical and digital electronics, and an IEEE 802.15.4 based module for wireless data transmission. Micromachined platforms were functionalized with nanoporous metal-oxides to obtain multiparametric sensors, hosting gas-sensitive, anemometric and temperature transducers. Nanoporous metal-oxide layer was directly deposited on gas sensing regions of micromachined platform batches by hard-mask patterned supersonic cluster beam deposition. An outdoor, roadside experiment was arranged in downtown Milan (Italy, where one wireless sensing unit was continuously operated side by side with standard gas chromatographic instrumentation for air quality measurements. By means of a router PC, data from sensing unit and other instrumentation were collected, merged, and sent to a remote data storage server, through an UMTS device. The whole-system robustness as well as sensor dataset characteristics were continuously characterized over a run-time period of 18 months.

  7. Long-term outdoor reliability assessment of a wireless unit for air-quality monitoring based on nanostructured films integrated on micromachined platforms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leccardi, Matteo; Decarli, Massimiliano; Lorenzelli, Leandro; Milani, Paolo; Mettala, Petteri; Orava, Risto; Barborini, Emanuele

    2012-01-01

    We have fabricated and tested in long-term field operating conditions a wireless unit for outdoor air quality monitoring. The unit is equipped with two multiparametric sensors, one miniaturized thermo-hygrometer, front-end analogical and digital electronics, and an IEEE 802.15.4 based module for wireless data transmission. Micromachined platforms were functionalized with nanoporous metal-oxides to obtain multiparametric sensors, hosting gas-sensitive, anemometric and temperature transducers. Nanoporous metal-oxide layer was directly deposited on gas sensing regions of micromachined platform batches by hard-mask patterned supersonic cluster beam deposition. An outdoor, roadside experiment was arranged in downtown Milan (Italy), where one wireless sensing unit was continuously operated side by side with standard gas chromatographic instrumentation for air quality measurements. By means of a router PC, data from sensing unit and other instrumentation were collected, merged, and sent to a remote data storage server, through an UMTS device. The whole-system robustness as well as sensor dataset characteristics were continuously characterized over a run-time period of 18 months.

  8. Sustainable Systems Analysis of Production and Transportation Scenarios for Conventional and Bio-based Energy Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, E. M.; Golden, J. S.; Nowacek, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    International commerce places unique pressures on the sustainability of water resources and marine environments. System impacts include noise, emissions, and chemical and biological pollutants like introduction of invasive species into key ecosystems. At the same time, maritime trade also enables the sustainability ambition of intragenerational equity in the economy through the global circulation of commodities and manufactured goods, including agricultural, energy and mining resources (UN Trade and Development Board 2013). This paper presents a framework to guide the analysis of the multiple dimensions of the sustainable commerce-ocean nexus. As a demonstration case, we explore the social, economic and environmental aspects of the nexus framework using scenarios for the production and transportation of conventional and bio-based energy commodities. Using coupled LCA and GIS methodologies, we are able to orient the findings spatially for additional insight. Previous work on the sustainable use of marine resources has focused on distinct aspects of the maritime environment. The framework presented here, integrates the anthropogenic use, governance and impacts on the marine and coastal environments with the natural components of the system. A similar framework has been highly effective in progressing the study of land-change science (Turner et al 2007), however modification is required for the unique context of the marine environment. This framework will enable better research integration and planning for sustainability objectives including mitigation and adaptation to climate change, sea level rise, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, protection of critical marine habitat and species, and better management of the ocean as an emerging resource base for the production and transport of commodities and energy across the globe. The framework can also be adapted for vulnerability analysis, resilience studies and to evaluate the trends in production, consumption and

  9. Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A. Waylen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM is a concept critical to managing social-ecological systems but whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM but whose potential is not yet well understood. Therefore, we designed, trialed, and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended to support CBNRM in three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina. Implementing scenario planning was judged as worthwhile in all three cases, although aspects of it were challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM: encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge, enhanced consideration of and adaptation to future change, and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arose was challenging, but two elements of the method seemed particularly useful. First, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect local social-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues. Second, explicitly focusing on how to use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities, or "response options," that would support CBNRM despite the pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors, e.g., policy groups: this raised the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario planning, so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process. We suggest that other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adapting and applying scenario planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored because further research is required to understand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, as well as their strengths and weaknesses versus other methods.

  10. An Event-Based Approach to Design a Teamwork Training Scenario and Assessment Tool in Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Ngan; Watson, William D; Dominguez, Edward

    2016-01-01

    Simulation is a technique recommended for teaching and measuring teamwork, but few published methodologies are available on how best to design simulation for teamwork training in surgery and health care in general. The purpose of this article is to describe a general methodology, called event-based approach to training (EBAT), to guide the design of simulation for teamwork training and discuss its application to surgery. The EBAT methodology draws on the science of training by systematically introducing training exercise events that are linked to training requirements (i.e., competencies being trained and learning objectives) and performance assessment. The EBAT process involves: Of the 4 teamwork competencies endorsed by the Agency for Healthcare Research Quality and Department of Defense, "communication" was chosen to be the focus of our training efforts. A total of 5 learning objectives were defined based on 5 validated teamwork and communication techniques. Diagnostic laparoscopy was chosen as the clinical context to frame the training scenario, and 29 KSAs were defined based on review of published literature on patient safety and input from subject matter experts. Critical events included those that correspond to a specific phase in the normal flow of a surgical procedure as well as clinical events that may occur when performing the operation. Similar to the targeted KSAs, targeted responses to the critical events were developed based on existing literature and gathering input from content experts. Finally, a 29-item EBAT-derived checklist was created to assess communication performance. Like any instructional tool, simulation is only effective if it is designed and implemented appropriately. It is recognized that the effectiveness of simulation depends on whether (1) it is built upon a theoretical framework, (2) it uses preplanned structured exercises or events to allow learners the opportunity to exhibit the targeted KSAs, (3) it assesses performance, and (4

  11. Constructing APT Attack Scenarios Based on Intrusion Kill Chain and Fuzzy Clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ru Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The APT attack on the Internet is becoming more serious, and most of intrusion detection systems can only generate alarms to some steps of APT attack and cannot identify the pattern of the APT attack. To detect APT attack, many researchers established attack models and then correlated IDS logs with the attack models. However, the accuracy of detection deeply relied on the integrity of models. In this paper, we propose a new method to construct APT attack scenarios by mining IDS security logs. These APT attack scenarios can be further used for the APT detection. First, we classify all the attack events by purpose of phase of the intrusion kill chain. Then we add the attack event dimension to fuzzy clustering, correlate IDS alarm logs with fuzzy clustering, and generate the attack sequence set. Next, we delete the bug attack sequences to clean the set. Finally, we use the nonaftereffect property of probability transfer matrix to construct attack scenarios by mining the attack sequence set. Experiments show that the proposed method can construct the APT attack scenarios by mining IDS alarm logs, and the constructed scenarios match the actual situation so that they can be used for APT attack detection.

  12. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    a very local-dependent hazard. Also, for major earthquakes, nonlinear effects need to be considered. This problem is treated accordingly, by using recent microzonation studies, together with real data recorded at 4 events with Mw≥6. Different ground motion prediction equations are also analyzed, and improvement of them is investigated. For the buildings and population damage assessment, two open-source software are used and compared: SELENA and ELER. The damage probability for buildings is obtained through capacity-spectrum based methods. The spectral content is used for spectral acceleration at 0.2, 0.3 and 1 seconds. As the level of analysis (6 sectors for all the city) has not the best resolution with respect to the Bucharest hazard scenarios defined, we propose a procedure on how to divide the data into smaller units, taking into consideration the construction code (4 periods) and material. This approach relies on free data available from real estate agencies web-sites. The study provides an insight view on the seismic risk analysis for Bucharest and an improvement of the real-time emergency system. Most important, the system is also evaluated through real data and relevant scenarios. State-of-the art GIS maps are also presented, both for seismic hazard and risk.

  13. Life cycle assessment of Italian citrus-based products. Sensitivity analysis and improvement scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beccali, Marco; Cellura, Maurizio; Iudicello, Maria; Mistretta, Marina

    2010-07-01

    Though many studies concern the agro-food sector in the EU and Italy, and its environmental impacts, literature is quite lacking in works regarding LCA application on citrus products. This paper represents one of the first studies on the environmental impacts of citrus products in order to suggest feasible strategies and actions to improve their environmental performance. In particular, it is part of a research aimed to estimate environmental burdens associated with the production of the following citrus-based products: essential oil, natural juice and concentrated juice from oranges and lemons. The life cycle assessment of these products, published in a previous paper, had highlighted significant environmental issues in terms of energy consumption, associated CO(2) emissions, and water consumption. Starting from such results the authors carry out an improvement analysis of the assessed production system, whereby sustainable scenarios for saving water and energy are proposed to reduce environmental burdens of the examined production system. In addition, a sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of the chosen methods will be performed, giving data on the outcome of the study. Uncertainty related to allocation methods, secondary data sources, and initial assumptions on cultivation, transport modes, and waste management is analysed. The results of the performed analyses allow stating that every assessed eco-profile is differently influenced by the uncertainty study. Different assumptions on initial data and methods showed very sensible variations in the energy and environmental performances of the final products. Besides, the results show energy and environmental benefits that clearly state the improvement of the products eco-profile, by reusing purified water use for irrigation, using the railway mode for the delivery of final products, when possible, and adopting efficient technologies, as the mechanical vapour recompression, in the pasteurisation and

  14. Scenario-Based Specification and Evaluation of Architectures for Health Monitoring of Aerospace Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukkamala, Ravi; Sundaram, P.

    2001-01-01

    HUMS systems have been an area of increased research in the recent times due to two main reasons: (a) increase in the occurrences of accidents in the aerospace, and (b) stricter FAA regulations on aircrafts maintenance [2]. There are several problems associated with the maintenance of aircrafts that the HUMS systems can solve through the use of several monitoring technologies.This paper documents our methodology of employing scenarios in the specification and evaluation of architecture for HUMS. Section 2 investigates related works that use scenarios in software development. Section 3 describes how we use scenarios in our work, which is followed by a demonstration of our methods in the development of KUMS in section 4. Conclusion summarizes results.

  15. A Compact Energy Harvesting System for Outdoor Wireless Sensor Nodes Based on a Low-Cost In Situ Photovoltaic Panel Characterization-Modelling Unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antolín, Diego; Calvo, Belén; Martínez, Pedro A.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a low-cost high-efficiency solar energy harvesting system to power outdoor wireless sensor nodes. It is based on a Voltage Open Circuit (VOC) algorithm that estimates the open-circuit voltage by means of a multilayer perceptron neural network model trained using local experimental characterization data, which are acquired through a novel low cost characterization system incorporated into the deployed node. Both units—characterization and modelling—are controlled by the same low-cost microcontroller, providing a complete solution which can be understood as a virtual pilot cell, with identical characteristics to those of the specific small solar cell installed on the sensor node, that besides allows an easy adaptation to changes in the actual environmental conditions, panel aging, etc. Experimental comparison to a classical pilot panel based VOC algorithm show better efficiency under the same tested conditions. PMID:28777330

  16. A Compact Energy Harvesting System for Outdoor Wireless Sensor Nodes Based on a Low-Cost In Situ Photovoltaic Panel Characterization-Modelling Unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antolín, Diego; Medrano, Nicolás; Calvo, Belén; Martínez, Pedro A

    2017-08-04

    This paper presents a low-cost high-efficiency solar energy harvesting system to power outdoor wireless sensor nodes. It is based on a Voltage Open Circuit (VOC) algorithm that estimates the open-circuit voltage by means of a multilayer perceptron neural network model trained using local experimental characterization data, which are acquired through a novel low cost characterization system incorporated into the deployed node. Both units-characterization and modelling-are controlled by the same low-cost microcontroller, providing a complete solution which can be understood as a virtual pilot cell, with identical characteristics to those of the specific small solar cell installed on the sensor node, that besides allows an easy adaptation to changes in the actual environmental conditions, panel aging, etc. Experimental comparison to a classical pilot panel based VOC algorithm show better efficiency under the same tested conditions.

  17. A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

    2016-12-01

    understand impacts of air pollution on health and climate in Kathmandu Valley and Nepal. Future emissions are being developed based on different possible growth scenarios and policy interventions to mitigate emissions.

  18. Thermal and Hydrological Response of Rock Glaciers to Climate Change: A Scenario Based Simulation Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apaloo, Jotham; Brenning, Alexander; Gruber, Stephan

    2014-05-01

    Rock glaciers are ice-debris landforms characterized by creeping ice-rich permafrost. Recognition of their hydrological significance is increasing and is of particular relevance to the dry Andes, where rock glaciers cover greater area than glaciers. However, additional knowledge and research approaches pertaining to the seasonal hydrological contributions and climatic sensitivities of rock glaciers are necessary for improved water resource planning in many regions around the world. This work explores the utility of the energy and water balance model GEOtop to quantify the thermal and hydrological response of rock glaciers to climate scenarios. Weather data was generated with the intermediate-stochastic weather generator AWE-GEN for a site in the Southeast Swiss Alps, which marked a novel approach in cryospheric studies. Weather data for a reference scenario was generated which approximates conditions during the observation period (1985-2012). AWE-GEN produced time series of weather data for the reference scenario with statistical properties of precipitation in close agreement with observations, but air temperature showed substantial negative biases in summer months, which are attributed to difficulties in modeling local climatic characteristics. To examine the influence of climate change, data for eight climate change scenarios were generated by specifying change factors for mean monthly air temperature. The thermal and hydrological evolution of rock glacier soils were simulated for 50 years under the climatic forcing of the reference scenario followed by 50 years under each climate change scenario. Mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGST), active layer depth, permafrost total ice content, and the potential summer runoff contribution were quantified and compared before and after the onset of the climate change conditions. Air temperature increases in the climate change scenarios were amplified in MAGST. Stable rock glacier points were resistant to changes in

  19. Construct and face validity of the educational computer-based environment (ECE) assessment scenarios for basic endoneurosurgery skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cagiltay, Nergiz Ercil; Ozcelik, Erol; Sengul, Gokhan; Berker, Mustafa

    2017-11-01

    In neurosurgery education, there is a paradigm shift from time-based training to criterion-based model for which competency and assessment becomes very critical. Even virtual reality simulators provide alternatives to improve education and assessment in neurosurgery programs and allow for several objective assessment measures, there are not many tools for assessing the overall performance of trainees. This study aims to develop and validate a tool for assessing the overall performance of participants in a simulation-based endoneurosurgery training environment. A training program was developed in two levels: endoscopy practice and beginning surgical practice based on four scenarios. Then, three experiments were conducted with three corresponding groups of participants (Experiment 1, 45 (32 beginners, 13 experienced), Experiment 2, 53 (40 beginners, 13 experienced), and Experiment 3, 26 (14 novices, 12 intermediate) participants). The results analyzed to understand the common factors among the performance measurements of these experiments. Then, a factor capable of assessing the overall skill levels of surgical residents was extracted. Afterwards, the proposed measure was tested to estimate the experience levels of the participants. Finally, the level of realism of these educational scenarios was assessed. The factor formed by time, distance, and accuracy on simulated tasks provided an overall performance indicator. The prediction correctness was very high for the beginners than the one for experienced surgeons in Experiments 1 and 2. When non-dominant hand is used in a surgical procedure-based scenario, skill levels of surgeons can be better predicted. The results indicate that the scenarios in Experiments 1 and 2 can be used as an assessment tool for the beginners, and scenario-2 in Experiment 3 can be used as an assessment tool for intermediate and novice levels. It can be concluded that forming the balance between perceived action capacities and skills is

  20. Stochastic Dynamic AC Optimal Power Flow Based on a Multivariate Short-Term Wind Power Scenario Forecasting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenlei Bai

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The deterministic methods generally used to solve DC optimal power flow (OPF do not fully capture the uncertainty information in wind power, and thus their solutions could be suboptimal. However, the stochastic dynamic AC OPF problem can be used to find an optimal solution by fully capturing the uncertainty information of wind power. That uncertainty information of future wind power can be well represented by the short-term future wind power scenarios that are forecasted using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM—a novel multivariate statistical wind power forecasting model. Furthermore, the GDFM can accurately represent the spatial and temporal correlations among wind farms through the multivariate stochastic process. Fully capturing the uncertainty information in the spatially and temporally correlated GDFM scenarios can lead to a better AC OPF solution under a high penetration level of wind power. Since the GDFM is a factor analysis based model, the computational time can also be reduced. In order to further reduce the computational time, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm is used to solve the AC OPF problem based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios. Using the modified ABC algorithm based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios has resulted in better AC OPF’ solutions on an IEEE 118-bus system at every hour for 24 h.

  1. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  2. A change navigation-based, scenario planning process within a developing world context from an Afro-centric leadership perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris A. Geldenhuys

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: In the hyper turbulent context faced currently by organisations, more flexible strategic planning approaches, such as scenario planning which take into account a more comprehensive range of possible futures for an organisation, will position organisations better than conventional forecast and estimates that depend only on a single, linearly extrapolated, strategic response.Research purpose: This study aimed to investigate how scenario-based planning (a strictly cognitive management tool can be combined with organisational change navigation (a practice addressing the emotionality of change and how this integrated process should be aligned with the prerequisites imposed by a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership perspective in order to make the process more context relevant and aligned.Motivation for the study: The integration of organisational change navigation with conventional scenario based planning, as well as the incorporation of the perquisites of a developing countries and an Afro-centric leadership perspective, will give organisations a more robust, holistic strategic management tool that will add significantly more value within a rapidly, radically and unpredictably changing world.Research design, approach and method: The adopted research approach comprised a combination of the sourcing of the latest thinking in the literature (the ‘theory’ as well as the views of seasoned practitioners of scenario planning (the ‘practice’ through an iterative research process, moving between theory and practice, back to practice and finally returning to theory in order to arrive at a validated expanded and enhanced scenario-based planning process which is both theory and practice ‘proof’.Main findings: A management tool incorporating the change navigation and the unique features of developing countries and Afro-centric leadership was formulated and empirically validated. This management tool is referred to as

  3. Exploring land use scenarios, an alternative approach based on actual land use.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, A.; Fresco, L.O.

    1997-01-01

    Land use scenarios should be able to describe land use as a result of changing biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, as well as the pathways of possible future developments including feedbacks between land use and its drivers. Several approaches exist, to date, to develop regional and national

  4. Google Earth based visualization of Dutch land use scenarios: beyond usability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammeren, van R.J.A.; Houtkamp, J.M.; Hilferink, M.; Bouwman, A.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution describes GESO, a tool to prepare a Google Earth visualization of the Dutch land use scenarios as created by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. This Google Earth (GE) for the Sustainable Outlook tool, named GESO aims to be an effective, easy and low cost way to study

  5. Rescuing ethanol photosynthetic production of cyanobacteria in non-sterilized outdoor cultivations with a bicarbonate-based pH-rising strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhi; Luan, Guodong; Tan, Xiaoming; Zhang, Haocui; Lu, Xuefeng

    2017-01-01

    Ethanol photosynthetic production based on cyanobacteria cell factories utilizing CO2 and solar energy provides an attractive solution for sustainable production of green fuels. However, the scaling up processes of cyanobacteria cell factories were usually threatened or even devastated by biocontaminations, which restricted biomass or products accumulations of cyanobacteria cells. Thus it is of great significance to develop reliable biocontamination-controlling strategies for promoting ethanol photosynthetic production in large scales. The scaling up process of a previously developed Synechocystis strain Syn-HZ24 for ethanol synthesis was severely inhibited and devastated by a specific contaminant, Pannonibacter phragmitetus, which overcame the growths of cyanobacteria cells and completely consumed the ethanol accumulation in the cultivation systems. Physiological analysis revealed that growths and ethanol-consuming activities of the contaminant were sensitive to alkaline conditions, while ethanol-synthesizing cyanobacteria strain Syn-HZ24 could tolerate alkaline pH conditions as high as 11.0, indicating that pH-increasing strategy might be a feasible approach for rescuing ethanol photosynthetic production in outdoor cultivation systems. Thus, we designed and evaluated a Bicarbonate-based Integrated Carbon Capture System (BICCS) derived pH-rising strategy to rescue the ethanol photosynthetic production in non-sterilized conditions. In lab scale artificially simulated systems, pH values of BG11 culture medium were maintained around 11.0 by 180 mM NaHCO3 and air steam, under which the infection of Pannonibacter phragmitetus was significantly restricted, recovering ethanol production of Syn-HZ24 by about 80%. As for outdoor cultivations, ethanol photosynthetic production of Syn-HZ24 was also successfully rescued by the BICCS-derived pH-rising strategy, obtaining a final ethanol concentration of 0.9 g/L after 10 days cultivation. In this work, a novel product

  6. Predicting outdoor sound

    CERN Document Server

    Attenborough, Keith; Horoshenkov, Kirill

    2014-01-01

    1. Introduction  2. The Propagation of Sound Near Ground Surfaces in a Homogeneous Medium  3. Predicting the Acoustical Properties of Outdoor Ground Surfaces  4. Measurements of the Acoustical Properties of Ground Surfaces and Comparisons with Models  5. Predicting Effects of Source Characteristics on Outdoor Sound  6. Predictions, Approximations and Empirical Results for Ground Effect Excluding Meteorological Effects  7. Influence of Source Motion on Ground Effect and Diffraction  8. Predicting Effects of Mixed Impedance Ground  9. Predicting the Performance of Outdoor Noise Barriers  10. Predicting Effects of Vegetation, Trees and Turbulence  11. Analytical Approximations including Ground Effect, Refraction and Turbulence  12. Prediction Schemes  13. Predicting Sound in an Urban Environment.

  7. Modeling of outdoor-to-indoor radio channels via propagation graphs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Troels; Steinböck, Gerhard; Fleury, Bernard Henri

    2014-01-01

    We formulate a model for the outdoor-to-indoor radio channel in terms of a propagation graph. The model accounts for outdoor scattering and in-room reverberation. It is observed from the model how such a scenario results in channels with several room excitations leading to "clusters......" in the simulated channel impulse responses. Simulation studies further indicate that the outdoor-to-indoor and inroom channels differ in terms of spatial envelope correlation. Published in:...

  8. Dataset on outdoor behavior-system and spatial-pattern in the third place in cold area-based on the perspective of new energy structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Ren

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The data presented in this paper are related to the research article entitled “Exploration of Outdoor Behavior System and Spatial Pattern in the Third Place in Cold Area- based on the perspective of new energy structure” (Ren, 2016 [1]. The dataset was from a field sub-time extended investigation to residents of Power Home Community in Inner Mongolia of China that belongs to cold region of ID area according to Chinese design code for buildings. This filed data provided descriptive statistics about environment-behavior symbiosis system, environment loading, behavior system, spatial demanding and spatial pattern for all kinds of residents (Older, younger, children. The field data set is made publicly available to enable critical or extended analyzes.

  9. Outdoor recreation and ethnicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentin, Sandra

    The thesis has three aims: The first aim is to review the existing knowledge about ethnic minorities’ outdoor recreation in Europe. The second aim is to investigate similarities and differences in outdoor recreation patterns between adolescents with ethnic Danish and ethnic minority background...... carried out during some part of the year, “going for a walk”, “barbequing”, “taking a trip with family” were frequently cited by both groups, but more common among adolescents with ethnic minority background. “Walking the dog” was much more common among adolescents with Danish background, who also more...

  10. Outdoor PV Degradation Comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordan, D. C.; Smith, R. M.; Osterwald, C. R.; Gelak, E.; Kurtz, S. R.

    2011-02-01

    As photovoltaic (PV) penetration of the power grid increases, it becomes vital to know how decreased power output; may affect cost over time. In order to predict power delivery, the decline or degradation rates must be determined; accurately. At the Performance and Energy Rating Testbed (PERT) at the Outdoor Test Facility (OTF) at the; National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) more than 40 modules from more than 10 different manufacturers; were compared for their long-term outdoor stability. Because it can accommodate a large variety of modules in a; limited footprint the PERT system is ideally suited to compare modules side-by-side under the same conditions.

  11. Outdoor Recreation, Outdoor Education and the Economy of Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Peter

    2000-01-01

    Interviews and a literature review found that outdoor recreation contributes significantly to Scotland's tourist income, particularly in rural areas; outdoor education centers are significant employers in certain rural areas; the provision of outdoor education by secondary schools has decreased in the last 20 years; and therapeutic outdoor…

  12. WSN system design by using an innovative neural network model to perform thermals forecasting in a urban canyon scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuseppina, Nicolosi; Salvatore, Tirrito

    2015-12-01

    Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) were studied by researchers in order to manage Heating, Ventilating and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) indoor systems. WSN can be useful specially to regulate indoor confort in a urban canyon scenario, where the thermal parameters vary rapidly, influenced by outdoor climate changing. This paper shows an innovative neural network approach, by using WSN data collected, in order to forecast the indoor temperature to varying the outdoor conditions based on climate parameters and boundary conditions typically of urban canyon. In this work more attention will be done to influence of traffic jam and number of vehicles in queue.

  13. [The effect of a scenario-based simulation communication course on improving the communication skills of nurses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ya-Hsuan; Hsieh, Suh-Ing; Hsu, Li-Ling

    2014-04-01

    Limited disease knowledge is frequently the cause of disease-related anxiety in myocardial infarction patients. The ability to communicate effectively serves multiple purposes in the professional nursing practice. By communicating effectively with myocardial infarction patients, nurses may help reduce their anxiety by keeping them well informed about their disease and teaching them self-care strategies. This research evaluates the communication skills of nurses following scenario-based simulation education in the context of communication with myocardial infarction patients. This study used an experimental design and an educational intervention. The target population comprised nurses of medicine (clinical qualified level N to N2 for nursing) working at a municipal hospital in Taipei City, Taiwan. A total 122 participants were enrolled. Stratified block randomization divided participants into an experimental group and a control group. The experimental group received clinical scenario-based simulation education for communication. The control group received traditional class-based education for communication. Both groups received a pre-test and a Communication Skills Checklist post-test assessment. Results were analyzed using SPSS 17.0 for Windows software. A t-test showed significant increases in communication skills (p communication skills following the education intervention. The results indicate that clinical scenario-based simulation education for communication is significantly more effective than traditional class-based education in enhancing the ability of nurses to communicate effectively with myocardial infarction patients.

  14. Stochastic Multi-Commodity Facility Location Based on a New Scenario Generation Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahootchi, M.; Fattahi, M.; Khakbazan, E.

    2011-11-01

    This paper extends two models for stochastic multi-commodity facility location problem. The problem is formulated as two-stage stochastic programming. As a main point of this study, a new algorithm is applied to efficiently generate scenarios for uncertain correlated customers' demands. This algorithm uses Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and a scenario reduction approach. The relation between customer satisfaction level and cost are considered in model I. The risk measure using Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is embedded into the optimization model II. Here, the structure of the network contains three facility layers including plants, distribution centers, and retailers. The first stage decisions are the number, locations, and the capacity of distribution centers. In the second stage, the decisions are the amount of productions, the volume of transportation between plants and customers.

  15. Scenario-Based Evaluation of Perception of Picture Quality Failures in LCD Televisions

    OpenAIRE

    Keijzers, J.; Scholten, L.; Y. Lu; den Ouden, E.

    2009-01-01

    In innovative Consumer Electronics products, such as LCD televisions, consumers often perceive the product's malfunctioning differently than designers do. To support critical design decisions, it is therefore important to understand how consumers perceive potential product failures. This paper discusses the development of realistic failure scenarios related to the picture quality of an LCD television. The impact of television content as well as failure origin on the perception of ...

  16. PRESERVICE TEACHERS’ PERCEPTIONS ABOUT THEIR PROBLEM SOLVING SKILLS IN THE SCENARIO BASED BLENDED LEARNING ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serap Samsa YETIK

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine how to react everyday lives problems in general. In the study, a pretest-posttest quasi-experimental design was used. The study group consisted of 37 students who were registered for Teacher Experience Course of Computer & Instructional Technologies Education in their 8th semester. In order to collect data The Problem Solving Inventory, a 6 point likert scale with 35 items was used. The scale was completed by the participants both at the beginning and at the end of the 8th semester. In the study as an online learning environment, MODDLE which is a learning management system was used. At the beginning of the semester students who would go to the public primary institutions once a week were randomly assigned to one of the five schools. In the study, participants were given scenarios once a week, totally 8 scenarios and wanted to generate solutions for these problems. Scenarios and solutions were discussed at the face to face courses, semiweekly and gave feedback to them about their solutions by the researchers. At last week, the period of Teaching Practice and generated solutions according to presented problems were assessed, and participants were wanted to respond the scale again. Descriptive statistics and t-test statistical technique were used to analysis of data. The result of the study indicated that there is a significant difference in favour of average points of posttest.

  17. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  18. Turismo Activo y Outdoor Training: Metodología. (Adventure Sport Tourism and Outdoor Training: Methodology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vicente Gómez Encinas

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available ResumenUno de los aspectos más atractivos que tiene el outdoor training es su supuesta capacidad para conseguir que los aprendizajes obtenidos a través de sus actividades sean transferidos a otros ámbitos de la vida personal y profesional de sus participantes. En este sentido, la clave está en la metodología empleada. Este artículo profundiza en las fases que estructuran el proceso formativo del outdoor training describiendo: 1 las bases folosóficas que lo apoyan y que están expresadas en la teoría de la “educación a través de la experiencia” y 2 las diferentes fases que estructuran el proceso de formación de un outdoor, haciendo una descripción en profundidad de cada una de ellas: a Pre-Outdoor (Análisis y valoración de las necesidades, diseño de la actividad y reunión previa a la actividad, b Outdoor, c Post-outdoor (Reflexión y transferencia, y d Seguimiento posterior.AbstractOne of the most attractive aspects that has the outdoor training is their supposed capacity to get that the learnings obtained through their activities are transferred to other environments of the personal life and their participants' professional. In this sense, the key is in the used methodology. This article deepens in the phases that structure the formative process of the outdoor training describing: 1 the philosophy´s bases that support this process and that are expressed in the theory of experiential education, and 2 the different phases that structure the process of formation of an outdoor, making a description in depth of each one of them: to Pre-Outdoor (Analysis and valuation of the necessities, design of the activity and previous meeting to the activity, b Outdoor, c Post-outdoor (Reflection and transfer, and d Later Pursuit.

  19. Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orpin, Alan R.; Rickard, Graham J.; Gerring, Peter K.; Lamarche, Geoffroy

    2016-05-01

    Devastating tsunami over the last decade have significantly heightened awareness of the potential consequences and vulnerability of low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions. Our appraisal of the potential tsunami hazard for the atolls of the Tokelau Islands is based on a tsunami source-propagation-inundation model using Gerris Flow Solver, adapted from the companion study by Lamarche et al. (2015) for the islands of Wallis and Futuna. We assess whether there is potential for tsunami flooding on any of the village islets from a selection of 14 earthquake-source experiments. These earthquake sources are primarily based on the largest Pacific earthquakes of Mw ≥ 8.1 since 1950 and other large credible sources of tsunami that may impact Tokelau. Earthquake-source location and moment magnitude are related to tsunami-wave amplitudes and tsunami flood depths simulated for each of the three atolls of Tokelau. This approach yields instructive results for a community advisory but is not intended to be fully deterministic. Rather, the underlying aim is to identify credible sources that present the greatest potential to trigger an emergency response. Results from our modelling show that wave fields are channelled by the bathymetry of the Pacific basin in such a way that the swathes of the highest waves sweep immediately northeast of the Tokelau Islands. Our limited simulations suggest that trans-Pacific tsunami from distant earthquake sources to the north of Tokelau pose the most significant inundation threat. In particular, our assumed worst-case scenario for the Kuril Trench generated maximum modelled-wave amplitudes in excess of 1 m, which may last a few hours and include several wave trains. Other sources can impact specific sectors of the atolls, particularly distant earthquakes from Chile and Peru, and regional earthquake sources to the south. Flooding is dependent on the wave orientation and direct alignment to the incoming tsunami. Our "worst-case" tsunami

  20. Cancer risk assessment of human exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) via indoor and outdoor dust based on probit model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Yuan; Shao, Dingding; Li, Ning; Yang, Gelin; Zhang, Qiuyun; Zeng, Lixuan; Luo, Jiwen; Zhong, Wenfeng

    2015-03-01

    In the present study, the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in indoor dust and outdoor dust including road and window dust around the traffic road in Hunan Province, China, were sampled and detected. The ∑PAHs in indoor dust ranged from 5007-24,236 ng g(-1), with a median of 14,049 ng g(-1). The ∑PAHs in road dust ranged from 3644-12,875 ng g(-1), with a median of 10,559 ng g(-1). The ∑PAHs in window dust ranged from 803-12,590 ng g(-1), with a median of 5459 ng g(-1). Similar pattern of PAHs was observed in road and window dust except in H3W and H4W samples, which was dominated by naphthalene (Nap), benzo(b+k)fluoranthene (B(b+k)F), phenanthrene (Phe), and fluorine (Fle). Indoor dust showed slightly different PAHs profiles, which was dominated by Nap, fluoranthene (Fla) and Phe. Risk assessment indicated that dermal contact and dust ingestion exposure pathways were more important than the inhalation pathway. Cancer risk of PAHs via dust varied from 2.73 × 10(-8)-8.04 × 10(-6), with a median of 2.06 × 10(-6) for children, and from 2 × 10(-8)-5.89 × 10(-6), with a median of 1.52 × 10(-6) for adult. Probit model showed that 76 and 71 % of samples in the sampling area would result in the risk of children and adult exposure to PAHs via dust higher than the acceptable level (1 × 10(-6)), respectively.

  1. Outdoor production of microalgae

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vree, de Jeroen H.

    2016-01-01

    This thesis describes the production of microalgae under outdoor conditions, for this research was done at pilot scale. Microalgae are an interesting alternative to currently used sources for bulk commodities as food, feed and chemicals. Research activities within the field are shattered; different

  2. Outdoor Experiences and Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince, Heather E.

    2017-01-01

    Positive outdoor teaching and learning experiences and sound pedagogical approaches undoubtedly have contributed towards an understanding of environmental sustainability but it is not always clear how, and to what extent, education can translate into action. This article argues, with reference to social learning theory, that role modelling,…

  3. Outdoor Ecology School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Anna Gahl

    2004-01-01

    In this article, the author describes how her high school environmental science students led third graders on a dynamic learning adventure as part of their first annual Outdoor Ecology School. At the water-monitoring site in a nearby national forest, the elementary students conducted field research and scavenger hunts, discovered animal habitats,…

  4. Outdoor recreation resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter J. Betz; Donald B.K. English; H. Ken Cordell

    1999-01-01

    The authors examine recreation resources and opportunities by the four types of providers: Federal, State, local governments, and the private sector. They discuss the trend of partnerships in the provision of outdoor recreation opportunities, especially two types that emerged in the 1990’s: Scenic Byways and Watchable Wildlife opportunities. Where possible, the authors...

  5. Outdoor recreation participation trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Ken Cordell; Barbara L. McDonald; R. Jeff Teasley; John C. Bergstrom; Jack Martin; Jim Bason; Vernon R. Leeworthy

    1999-01-01

    As part of the national assessment of outdoor recreation trends, the authors have taken a look at participation patterns and levels of participation across activities and across segments of our society. The primary source of data is the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment (NSRE). The NSRE is the latest in the continuing series of National Recreation...

  6. Outdoor Education in Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Ray H.

    In Dallas in 1970, high school outdoor education began as a cocurricular woods and waters boys' club sponsored by a community sportsman. Within one year, it grew into a fully accredited, coeducational, academic course with a curriculum devoted to the study of wildlife in Texas, ecology, conservation, hunting, firearm safety, fishing, boating and…

  7. A prevalence study on outdoor air pollution and respiratory diseases in children in Zasavje, Slovenia, as a lever to trigger evidence-based environmental health activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukec, Andreja; Farkas, Jerneja; Erzen, Ivan; Zaletel-Kragelj, Lijana

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the population burden of respiratory diseases in the Zasavje region of Slovenia that can be attributed to outdoor air pollution in order to gain relevant grounds for evidence based public health activities. In 2008, 981 schoolchildren (age 6 to 12 years) were observed in a prevalence study. The prevalence of chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) and frequent acute respiratory symptoms (FARS) was related to the level of outdoor air pollution in the local environment (low, moderate and high pollution areas). Logistic regression was used as a method for statistical analysis. The prevalence of CRD was 3.0 % in low pollution areas, 7.5 % in moderate pollution areas, and 9.7 % in high pollution areas (p=0.005). After adjustment for the effects of confounders, 2.91-times higher odds for CRD were registered in high pollution areas in comparison to low pollution areas (p=0.017). The prevalence of FARS was: 7.8 % in low pollution areas, 13.3 % in moderate pollution areas and 15.9 % in high pollution areas (p=0.010). After adjustment for the effects of confounders, 2.02-times higher odds for FARS were registered in high pollution areas in comparison to low pollution areas (p=0.023). The study confirmed a significantly higher prevalence of CRD and FARS in children living in high pollution areas of Zasavje. These results at least partially prompted mutual understanding and cross-sectoral cooperation - prerequisites for solving complex problems involving the impact of air pollution on health.

  8. Analysis of 38 GHz mmWave Propagation Characteristics of Urban Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

    2015-01-01

    The 38 GHz mm-wave frequency band is a strong candidate for the future deployment of wireless systems. Compared to lower frequency bands, propagation in the 38 GHz band is relatively unexplored for access networks in urban scenarios. This paper presents a detailed measurement-based analysis......, diffraction, transmission, as well as polarization effects. The measurement results confirm that, at this particular frequency, propagation in urban scenarios is mainly driven by line-of-sight and reflection. The proposed models are practical for implementation in system level simulators or ray-tracing tools...... of urban outdoor and outdoor-to-indoor propagation characteristics at 38 GHz. Different sets of measurements were performed in order to understand, quantify and model the behavior of the different underlying propagation mechanisms. The study considers line-of-sight propagation, reflection, scattering...

  9. Space and place in Outdoor Education in New Zealand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andkjær, Søren

    2010-01-01

    The article draws on a doctoral study of young peoples’ participation in organised friluftsliv and outdoor education in Denmark and New Zealand. The research questions concentrate on views of nature, values and general characteristics in friluftsliv and outdoor education. The results are based...... on a qualitative approach using case study design with interviews and observations. For the analysis, ethnological cultural analysis was employed combined with configuration analysis to conceptualise the data. Theories and concepts of space and place in outdoor education in New Zealand are discussed. Results from...... the empirical studies on outdoor education in New Zealand are discussed and compared to the cultural perspective of friluftsliv in Denmark....

  10. "Friluftsliv": Traditional Norwegian Outdoor Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellnes, Atle

    1992-01-01

    Nature and outdoor life are part of Norway's national identity, as exemplified by a long history of nature-inspired art and literature, the formation of outdoor organizations since the turn of the century, and the development of skiing. Norwegian traditional outdoor life is characterized as travelling with respectful use of nature, to achieve a…

  11. Children and the Outdoor Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niklasson, Laila; Sandberg, Anette

    2010-01-01

    In this article we will discuss the outdoor environment for younger children with the help of two different concepts. The first concept, affordance, is well known in the discussion about outdoor environments. What the affordance in the outdoor environment is perceived as can differ between actors. How the affordance is used can be another source…

  12. Outdoor Recreation Action. Report 25.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bureau of Outdoor Recreation (Dept. of Interior), Washington, DC.

    This report from the Department of Interior presents information concerning individual state actions and projects related to the broad topic of outdoor recreation. Included are data on the following topics: rights-of-way for recreation; federal financing of outdoor recreation; state and local financing of outdoor recreation; federal acquisition…

  13. Outdoor Education and Science Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rios, José M.; Brewer, Jessica

    2014-01-01

    Elementary students have limited opportunities to learn science in an outdoor setting at school. Some suggest this is partially due to a lack of teacher efficacy teaching in an outdoor setting. Yet the research literature indicates that outdoor learning experiences develop positive environmental attitudes and can positively affect science…

  14. Effects of fishing effort allocation scenarios on energy efficiency and profitability: an individual-based model applied to Danish fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Andersen, Bo Sølgaard

    2010-01-01

    engine specifications, and fish and fuel prices. The outcomes of scenarios A and B indicate a trade-off between fuel savings and energy efficiency improvements when effort is displaced closer to the harbour compared to reductions in total landing amounts and profit. Scenario C indicates that historic......Global concerns about CO2 emissions, national CO2 quotas, and rising fuel prices are incentives for the commercial fishing fleet industry to change their fishing practices and reduce fuel consumption, which constitutes a significant part of fishing costs. Vessel-based fuel consumption, energy...... efficiency (quantity of fish caught per litre of fuel used), and profitability are factors that we simulated in developing a spatially explicit individual-based model (IBM) for fishing vessel movements. The observed spatial and seasonal patterns of fishing effort for each fishing activity are evaluated...

  15. Geometric and Colour Data Fusion for Outdoor 3D Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchán, Pilar; Adán, Antonio; Salamanca, Santiago; Domínguez, Vicente; Chacón, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    This paper deals with the generation of accurate, dense and coloured 3D models of outdoor scenarios from scanners. This is a challenging research field in which several problems still remain unsolved. In particular, the process of 3D model creation in outdoor scenes may be inefficient if the scene is digitalized under unsuitable technical (specific scanner on-board camera) and environmental (rain, dampness, changing illumination) conditions. We address our research towards the integration of images and range data to produce photorealistic models. Our proposal is based on decoupling the colour integration and geometry reconstruction stages, making them independent and controlled processes. This issue is approached from two different viewpoints. On the one hand, given a complete model (geometry plus texture), we propose a method to modify the original texture provided by the scanner on-board camera with the colour information extracted from external images taken at given moments and under specific environmental conditions. On the other hand, we propose an algorithm to directly assign external images onto the complete geometric model, thus avoiding tedious on-line calibration processes. We present the work conducted on two large Roman archaeological sites dating from the first century A.D., namely, the Theatre of Segobriga and the Fori Porticus of Emerita Augusta, both in Spain. The results obtained demonstrate that our approach could be useful in the digitalization and 3D modelling fields. PMID:22969327

  16. Geometric and colour data fusion for outdoor 3D models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchán, Pilar; Adán, Antonio; Salamanca, Santiago; Domínguez, Vicente; Chacón, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    This paper deals with the generation of accurate, dense and coloured 3D models of outdoor scenarios from scanners. This is a challenging research field in which several problems still remain unsolved. In particular, the process of 3D model creation in outdoor scenes may be inefficient if the scene is digitalized under unsuitable technical (specific scanner on-board camera) and environmental (rain, dampness, changing illumination) conditions. We address our research towards the integration of images and range data to produce photorealistic models. Our proposal is based on decoupling the colour integration and geometry reconstruction stages, making them independent and controlled processes. This issue is approached from two different viewpoints. On the one hand, given a complete model (geometry plus texture), we propose a method to modify the original texture provided by the scanner on-board camera with the colour information extracted from external images taken at given moments and under specific environmental conditions. On the other hand, we propose an algorithm to directly assign external images onto the complete geometric model, thus avoiding tedious on-line calibration processes. We present the work conducted on two large Roman archaeological sites dating from the first century A.D., namely, the Theatre of Segobriga and the Fori Porticus of Emerita Augusta, both in Spain. The results obtained demonstrate that our approach could be useful in the digitalization and 3D modelling fields.

  17. Geometric and Colour Data Fusion for Outdoor 3D Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Chacón

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the generation of accurate, dense and coloured 3D models of outdoor scenarios from scanners. This is a challenging research field in which several problems still remain unsolved. In particular, the process of 3D model creation in outdoor scenes may be inefficient if the scene is digitalized under unsuitable technical (specific scanner on-board camera and environmental (rain, dampness, changing illumination conditions. We address our research towards the integration of images and range data to produce photorealistic models. Our proposal is based on decoupling the colour integration and geometry reconstruction stages, making them independent and controlled processes. This issue is approached from two different viewpoints. On the one hand, given a complete model (geometry plus texture, we propose a method to modify the original texture provided by the scanner on-board camera with the colour information extracted from external images taken at given moments and under specific environmental conditions. On the other hand, we propose an algorithm to directly assign external images onto the complete geometric model, thus avoiding tedious on-line calibration processes. We present the work conducted on two large Roman archaeological sites dating from the first century A.D., namely, the Theatre of Segobriga and the Fori Porticus of Emerita Augusta, both in Spain. The results obtained demonstrate that our approach could be useful in the digitalization and 3D modelling fields.

  18. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  19. Conceiving Scenario-Based IS Support for Knowledge Synthesis: The Organization Architect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kam Hou VAT

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the idea of creating information systems (IS support for knowledge work through the elaboration of typical organizational scenarios. Specifically, our research is driven by a belief that the design issues of IS support must be situated in the context of social processes in which, in a specific organizational scenario, a particular group of people can conceptualize their knowledge work and hence the purposeful action they wish to undertake. This provides the basis for ascertaining what information support is needed by those who undertake that action, and how modern information technology can help to provide that support. Thereby, designing IS support for knowledge work requires attention to the purposeful action which the IS serves, and hence to the meanings which make those particular actions meaningful and relevant to particular groups of people in a particular situation. This is often facilitated by the provision of an important enquiry process constantly attended to, and integrated into organizational activities by which IS professionals could learn of the organization's continual adjustments to its changing world. Our discussion here brings forth the notion of the learning organization information systems (LOIS, through which each member of the organization is enabled to create his or her own knowledge space, which is subject to some level of description, and thus may be architected and integrated into an organization. Importantly, in order to develop the various LOIS support for knowledge work, we need the correspondent organization scenarios to contextualize the IS design. And we attribute this development philosophy to the essence of systems thinking in conceiving IS support. The paper concludes by reiterating the work of the organization architect, which entails understanding, analyzing, designing, and communicating the most relevant parts of the organization and how they fit together.

  20. Analysis and Comparison of 24 GHz cmWave Radio Propagation in Urban and Suburban Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez, Ignacio; Portela Lopes de Almeida, Erika; Abreu, Renato

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a measurement-based comparison of cm-wave propagation in urban and suburban scenarios at 24 GHz with transmitter antennas located above rooftop level. Different sets of directional measurements, exploring the full azimuth and the range from -30 to +30 degrees in elevation, were...... performed with horn antennas located close to street level, in order to explore the spatial characteristics of the channel in both LOS and NLOS conditions. The statistical analysis of different directional indicators shows how, at 24 GHz, outdoor propagation is quite different in the suburban scenario...

  1. Supporting primary-level mathematics teachers’ collaboration in designing and using technology-based scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Misfeldt, Morten; Zacho, Lis

    2016-01-01

    development and testing through qualitative means, aiming to describe the teachers’ appropriation of (1) GeoGebra as a tool for doing and teaching mathematics, and (2) game as a metaphor supporting open-ended projects addressing creativity and innovation in the classroom. The data from the project suggest......In this article, we address how the design of educational scenarios can support teachers’ adoption of both technology and open-ended projects indorsing creativity and innovation. We do that by describing how groups of teachers develop digital learning environments supporting using a combination...

  2. Scenario-based multi-zone approach of wind power for steady-state network studies

    OpenAIRE

    SCHÜLKE, ARNAUD

    2015-01-01

    The installed wind power capacity has increased rapidly over the last decades and wind power now has a strong impact on the European electric system. The development of wind power is expected to continue in the coming decades and it is therefore crucial to correctly take it into account in network simulations of the future system. Metrix is a model used at EDF R&D for technical and economical simulations of the European electric system. It uses a multi-scenario approach that aims at calcu...

  3. A Case-Based Scenario with Interdisciplinary Guided-Inquiry in Chemistry and Biology: Experiences of First Year Forensic Science Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cresswell, Sarah L.; Loughlin, Wendy A.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, insight into forensic science students' experiences of a case-based scenario with an interdisciplinary guided-inquiry experience in chemistry and biology is presented. Evaluation of student experiences and interest showed that the students were engaged with all aspects of the case-based scenario, including the curriculum theory…

  4. Assessing the Geographic Expression of Urban Sustainability: A Scenario Based Approach Incorporating Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James K. Lein

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Urban sustainability involves a re-examination of urban development including environmental, social and economic policies and practices that acknowledge the role of cities in global environmental change. However, sustainability remains a broadly defined concept that has been applied to mean everything from environmental protection, social cohesion, economic growth, neighborhood design, alternative energy, and green building design. To guide sustainability initiatives and assess progress toward more sustainable development patterns this construct requires a means to place this concept into a decision-centric context where change can be evaluated and the exploitation of resources, the direction of investment, the orientation of technological development, and institutional programs can be made more consistent with future as well as present needs. In this study the problem of sustainability assessment was examined and a method that couples scenario analysis with spatial multicriteria decision analysis was introduced. The integration of a spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA model for sustainable development with scenario planning resulted in an interpretation of sustainability that is more appropriate for local conditions and useful when exploring sustainability’s semantic uncertainties, particularly those alternate perspectives that influence future environments.

  5. Hybrid Map-Based Navigation Method for Unmanned Ground Vehicle in Urban Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiyan Chen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available To reduce the data size of metric map and map matching computational cost in unmanned ground vehicle self-driving navigation in urban scenarios, a metric-topological hybrid map navigation system is proposed in this paper. According to the different positioning accuracy requirements, urban areas are divided into strong constraint (SC areas, such as roads with lanes, and loose constraint (LC areas, such as intersections and open areas. As direction of the self-driving vehicle is provided by traffic lanes and global waypoints in the road network, a simple topological map is fit for the navigation in the SC areas. While in the LC areas, the navigation of the self-driving vehicle mainly relies on the positioning information. Simultaneous localization and mapping technology is used to provide a detailed metric map in the LC areas, and a window constraint Markov localization algorithm is introduced to achieve accurate position using laser scanner. Furthermore, the real-time performance of the Markov algorithm is enhanced by using a constraint window to restrict the size of the state space. By registering the metric maps into the road network, a hybrid map of the urban scenario can be constructed. Real unmanned vehicle mapping and navigation tests demonstrated the capabilities of the proposed method.

  6. Increasing Plant Based Foods or Dairy Foods Differentially Affects Nutrient Intakes: Dietary Scenarios Using NHANES 2007–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher J. Cifelli

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Diets rich in plant foods and lower in animal-based products have garnered increased attention among researchers, dietitians and health professionals in recent years for their potential to, not only improve health, but also to lessen the environmental impact. However, the potential effects of increasing plant-based foods at the expense of animal-based foods on macro- and micronutrient nutrient adequacy in the U.S. diet is unknown. In addition, dairy foods are consistently under consumed, thus the impact of increased dairy on nutrient adequacy is important to measure. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to use national survey data to model three different dietary scenarios to assess the effects of increasing plant-based foods or dairy foods on macronutrient intake and nutrient adequacy. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2007–2010 for persons two years and older (n = 17,387 were used in all the analyses. Comparisons were made of usual intake of macronutrients and shortfall nutrients of three dietary scenarios that increased intakes by 100%: (i plant-based foods; (ii protein-rich plant-based foods (i.e., legumes, nuts, seeds, soy; and (iii milk, cheese and yogurt. Scenarios (i and (ii had commensurate reductions in animal product intake. In both children (2–18 years and adults (≥19 years, the percent not meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR decreased for vitamin C, magnesium, vitamin E, folate and iron when plant-based foods were increased. However the percent not meeting the EAR increased for calcium, protein, vitamin A, and vitamin D in this scenario. Doubling protein-rich plant-based foods had no effect on nutrient intake because they were consumed in very low quantities in the baseline diet. The dairy model reduced the percent not meeting the EAR for calcium, vitamin A, vitamin D, magnesium, and protein, while sodium and saturated fat levels increased. Our modeling shows that

  7. Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israelyan Musheg

    2002-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia. Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188 than before (85–129.5. In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery. Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review.

  8. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  9. Constraining the Deforestation History of Europe: Evaluation of Historical Land Use Scenarios with Pollen-Based Land Cover Reconstructions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jed O. Kaplan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC is the most important transformation of the Earth system that occurred in the preindustrial Holocene, with implications for carbon, water and sediment cycles, biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services and regional and global climate. For example, anthropogenic deforestation in preindustrial Eurasia may have led to feedbacks to the climate system: both biogeophysical, regionally amplifying winter cold and summer warm temperatures, and biogeochemical, stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and thus influencing global climate. Quantification of these effects is difficult, however, because scenarios of anthropogenic land cover change over the Holocene vary widely, with increasing disagreement back in time. Because land cover change had such widespread ramifications for the Earth system, it is essential to assess current ALCC scenarios in light of observations and provide guidance on which models are most realistic. Here, we perform a systematic evaluation of two widely-used ALCC scenarios (KK10 and HYDE3.1 in northern and part of central Europe using an independent, pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land cover (REVEALS. Considering that ALCC in Europe primarily resulted in deforestation, we compare modeled land use with the cover of non-forest vegetation inferred from the pollen data. Though neither land cover change scenario matches the pollen-based reconstructions precisely, KK10 correlates well with REVEALS at the country scale, while HYDE systematically underestimates land use with increasing magnitude with time in the past. Discrepancies between modeled and reconstructed land use are caused by a number of factors, including assumptions of per-capita land use and socio-cultural factors that cannot be predicted on the basis of the characteristics of the physical environment, including dietary preferences, long-distance trade, the location of urban areas and social organization.

  10. Outdoor weathering of sol-gel-treated wood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandla A Tshabalala; Ryan Libert; Nancy Ross Sutherland

    2009-01-01

    Outdoor weathering of wood specimens treated with sol-gel formulations based on methyltrimethoxysilane (MTMOS), hexadecyltrimethoxysilane (HDTMOS), and ferric-zirconia-titania (Fe-Zr-Ti) sol was evaluated. The sol-gel process allowed deposition of a thin film of hybrid inorganic-organic networks (gel) in the wood cell wall that resulted in improved outdoor weathering...

  11. Indoor-Outdoor Air Pollution Relationship: A Literature Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Ferris B.; And Others

    While extensive measurements have been and are being made of outdoor pollution, relatively few data have been gathered on indoor pollution. The data that are available are compiled and analyzed in the report. Based on a review of the literature, it was possible to infer relationships between indoor and outdoor pollution and to identify factors…

  12. Outdoor recreation by Alaskans: projections for 2000 through 2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Michael. Bowker

    2001-01-01

    Outdoor recreation participation and consumption by Alaska residents are analyzed and projected to 2020. Both the rate of participation and the intensity of participation in nearly all outdoor recreation activities are higher among Alaskans than for residents of other states. Projections based on economic and demographic trends indicate that current patterns are likely...

  13. A prevalence study on outdoor air pollution and respiratory diseases in children in Zasavje, Slovenia, as a lever to trigger evidence-based environmental health activities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kukec, Andreja; Farkas, Jerneja; Erzen, Ivan; Zaletel-Kragelj, Lijana

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the population burden of respiratory diseases in the Zasavje region of Slovenia that can be attributed to outdoor air pollution in order to gain relevant grounds...

  14. An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for the Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Gurtner, Gérald; Ducci, Marco; Miccichè, Salvatore

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present a simulator allowing to perform policy experiments relative to the air traffic management. Different SESAR solutions can be implemented in the model to see the reaction of the different stakeholders as well as other relevant metrics (delays, safety, etc). The model describes both the strategic phase associated to the planning of the flight trajectories and the tactical modifications occurring in the en-route phase. An implementation of the model is available as open-source and freely accessible by any user. More specifically, different procedures related to business trajectories and free-routing are tested and we illustrate the capabilities of the model on airspace implementing these concepts. After performing numerical simulations with the model, we show that in a free-routing scenario the controllers perform less operations although they are dispersed over a larger portion of the airspace. This can potentially increase the complexity of conflict detection and resolution for controll...

  15. Using Mind Maps to Make Student Questioning Effective: Learning Outcomes of a Principle-Based Scenario for Teacher Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokhof, Harry; de Vries, Bregje; Bastiaens, Theo; Martens, Rob

    2018-01-01

    Student questioning is an important learning strategy, but rare in many classrooms, because teachers have concerns if these questions contribute to attaining curricular objectives. Teachers face the challenge of making student questioning effective for learning the curriculum. To address this challenge, a principle-based scenario for guiding effective student questioning was developed and tested for its relevance and practicality in two previous studies. In the scenario, which consists of a sequence of pedagogical activities, mind maps support teachers and students to explore and elaborate upon a core curriculum, by raising, investigating, and exchanging student questions. In this paper, a follow-up study is presented that tested the effectiveness of the scenario on student outcomes in terms of attainment of curricular objectives. Ten teachers and their 231 students participated in the study. Pre- and posttest mind maps were used to measure individual and collective learning outcomes of student questioning. Findings show that a majority of students progressed in learning the core curriculum and elaborated upon it. The findings suggest that visualizing knowledge construction in a shared mind map supports students to learn a core curriculum and to refine their knowledge structures.

  16. Climate Change Impact Assessment on Han River Long Term Runoff in South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung Jin Hong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The 2007 World Economic Forum (WEF referred to climate change as the overriding problem we face. Concerns have been raised about how global warming would accelerate future climate change and its consequences. Many climate change studies expect the possible occurrence of extreme high temperature, increase in heavy rains and strong typhoons in the near future. Currently, climate change scenarios are used to prepare an appropriate plan for these phenomena under climate change. The main purpose of this paper is to suggest and evaluate an operational method of assessing the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic components and water resources at the regional scale. Future runoff was simulated using high resolution Regional Circulation Model (RCM (12.5 × 12.5 km Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenario operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA and a semi-distribution model or SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Process. The study was carried out on the Han River including its nine dams. The study found that runoff characteristics, especially annual distribution, could change. The discharge in July tends to decrease while runoff can increase in August and September. The flow duration curve was estimated and compared with observed data and simulated daily runoff data for Paldang-dam to evaluate the effect of climate change. The analysis of the flow duration curve shows that the mean average low flow increased while the average wet and normal flow decreased under the climate change scenario.

  17. The Nankai Trough earthquake tsunamis in Korea: numerical studies of the 1707 Hoei earthquake and physics-based scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, SatByul; Saito, Tatsuhiko; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Kang, Tae-Seob

    2016-04-01

    Historical documents in Korea and China report abnormal waves in the sea and rivers close to the date of the 1707 Hoei earthquake, which occurred in the Nankai Trough, off southwestern Japan. This indicates that the tsunami caused by the Hoei earthquake might have reached Korea and China, which suggests a potential hazard in Korea from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. We conducted tsunami simulations to study the details of tsunamis in Korea caused by large earthquakes. Our results showed that the Hoei earthquake (Mw 8.8) tsunami reached the Korean Peninsula about 200 min after the earthquake occurred. The maximum tsunami height was ~0.5 m along the Korean coast. The model of the Hoei earthquake predicted a long-lasting tsunami whose highest peak arrived 600 min later after the first arrival near the coastline of Jeju Island. In addition, we conducted tsunami simulations using physics-based scenarios of anticipated earthquakes in the Nankai subduction zone. The maximum tsunami height in the scenarios (Mw 8.5-8.6) was ~0.4 m along the Korean coast. As a simple evaluation of larger possible tsunamis, we increased the amount of stress released by the earthquake by a factor of two and three, resulting in scenarios for Mw 8.8 and 8.9 earthquakes, respectively. The tsunami height increased by 0.1-0.4 m compared to that estimated by the Hoei earthquake.

  18. Future efficiency of run of the river hydropower schemes based on climate change scenarios: case study in UK catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasten Zapata, Ernesto; Moggridge, Helen; Jones, Julie; Widmann, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Run-of-the-River (ROR) hydropower schemes are expected to be importantly affected by climate change as they rely in the availability of river flow to generate energy. As temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future, the hydrological cycle will also undergo changes. Therefore, climate models based on complex physical atmospheric interactions have been developed to simulate future climate scenarios considering the atmosphere's greenhouse gas concentrations. These scenarios are classified according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that are generated according to the concentration of greenhouse gases. This study evaluates possible scenarios for selected ROR hydropower schemes within the UK, considering three different RCPs: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2100 relative to pre-industrial values. The study sites cover different climate, land cover, topographic and hydropower scheme characteristics representative of the UK's heterogeneity. Precipitation and temperature outputs from state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Euro-CORDEX project are used as input for a HEC-HMS hydrological model to simulate the future river flow available. Both uncorrected and bias-corrected RCM simulations are analyzed. The results of this project provide an insight of the possible effects of climate change towards the generation of power from the ROR hydropower schemes according to the different RCP scenarios and contrasts the results obtained from uncorrected and bias-corrected RCMs. This analysis can aid on the adaptation to climate change as well as the planning of future ROR schemes in the region.

  19. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...

  20. ICUD-0530 Scenario based risk assessment of the dispersion of E-coli from combined sewer overflow to a fresh-water lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk

    2017-01-01

    A scenario based risk assessment method is used to evaluate how combined sewer overflow (CSO) affects a nearby bathing beach in Skanderborg, Denmark. The method combines an urban drainage model with a 3D CFD model to pre-simulate 60 different scenarios, used for assessing the risk of poor bathing...

  1. A Smartphone Camera-Based Indoor Positioning Algorithm of Crowded Scenarios with the Assistance of Deep CNN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Jichao; Li, Fei; Deng, Zhongliang; Ma, Wenjing

    2017-03-28

    Considering the installation cost and coverage, the received signal strength indicator (RSSI)-based indoor positioning system is widely used across the world. However, the indoor positioning performance, due to the interference of wireless signals that are caused by the complex indoor environment that includes a crowded population, cannot achieve the demands of indoor location-based services. In this paper, we focus on increasing the signal strength estimation accuracy considering the population density, which is different to the other RSSI-based indoor positioning methods. Therefore, we propose a new wireless signal compensation model considering the population density, distance, and frequency. First of all, the number of individuals in an indoor crowded scenario can be calculated by our convolutional neural network (CNN)-based human detection approach. Then, the relationship between the population density and the signal attenuation is described in our model. Finally, we use the trilateral positioning principle to realize the pedestrian location. According to the simulation and tests in the crowded scenarios, the proposed model increases the accuracy of the signal strength estimation by 1.53 times compared to that without considering the human body. Therefore, the localization accuracy is less than 1.37 m, which indicates that our algorithm can improve the indoor positioning performance and is superior to other RSSI models.

  2. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    In Hyuck Hwang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is because the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manually by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was suggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  3. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hwang In Hyuck

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is be¬cause the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manu¬ally by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was su¬ggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  4. Scenario Based Municipal Wastewater Estimation: Development and Application of a Dynamic Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops causal loop diagrams and a system dynamics model for estimation of wastewater quantity changes as a function of future socioeconomic development and the municipal water environment of the city under the influence of several key factors. Using Wuhan (a city with population more than 10 million in China as a case study, the variability of Wuhan’s wastewater quantity and water environment is modeled under different development patterns by year 2030. Nine future scenarios are designed by assigning different values to those key factors, including GDP growth rate, water consumption of annual ten thousand GDP, and wastewater treatment fee. The results show that (1 GDP growth leads to an increase in municipal wastewater quantity, but an increase in wastewater treatment fee can be in favor of reducing urban water pollution, and (2 the impact of per ten thousand yuan GDP water consumption on the amount of municipal wastewater is larger in the near future, while the impact of GDP growth rate is much larger in the long term. The dynamic model has proven to be reliable for simulating the municipal wastewater changes, and it could help decision makers to make the scientific and reasonable decisions.

  5. The multiscale importance of road segments in a network disruption scenario: a risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freiria, Susana; Tavares, Alexandre O; Pedro Julião, Rui

    2015-03-01

    This article addresses the problem of the multiscale importance of road networks, with the aim of helping to establish a more resilient network in the event of a road disruption scenario. A new model for identifying the most important roads is described and applied on a local and regional scale. The work presented here represents a step forward, since it focuses on the interaction between identifying the most important roads in a network that connect people and health services, the specificity of the natural hazards that threaten the normal functioning of the network, and an assessment of the consequences of three real-world interruptions from a multiscale perspective. The case studies concern three different past events: road interruptions due to a flood, a forest fire, and a mass movement. On the basis of the results obtained, it is possible to establish the roads for which risk management should be a priority. The multiscale perspective shows that in a road interruption the regional system may have the capacity to reorganize itself, although the interruption may have consequences for local dynamics. Coordination between local and regional scales is therefore important. The model proposed here allows for the scaling of emergency response facilities and human and physical resources. It represents an innovative approach to defining priorities, not only in the prevention phase but also in terms of the response to natural disasters, such as awareness of the consequences of road disruption for the rescue services sent out to local communities. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, In Hyuck; Kim, Youngmin; Lee, Dong Kun; Shin, Jong Gye

    2014-03-01

    Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is be¬cause the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate) that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manu¬ally by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was su¬ggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  7. Scenario Centered Curriculum Assessment Based on the Technological Profile of the Student

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David FONSECA ESCUDERO

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the results and the degree of student satisfaction obtained in the usability testing of the Scenario Centered Curriculum (SCC method, with a specific focus on the technological profile of each group of students. The method was incorporated into a Digital Marketing course which was taught in three Vocation Training Schools in Spain, Italy and France. The schools involved, together with seven other members, form part of a consortium created to promote the development of the Learning4Work Project (L4W, as part of the Erasmus+ program of the European Community. The aim of this project is to verify whether the active learning metidos applied to Vocational Training environments improve student motivation and performance and bring about significant improvement in the workplace. The preliminary results obtained indicate a need to adapt the contents to the specific professional area of each school in order to improve the results, as it appears that without a contextualization phase, students do not fully appreciate the potential advantages of the method.

  8. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Y; Huang, G H; Guo, L; Li, Y P; Dai, C; Wang, X W; Sun, W

    2013-02-15

    Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents' consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø. Hodnebrog

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH has been investigated separately for the three sectors AIRcraft, maritime SHIPping and ROAD traffic. To reduce uncertainties we present results from an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models, each simulating the atmospheric chemical composition in a possible high emission scenario (A1B, and with emissions from each transport sector reduced by 5% to estimate sensitivities. Our results are compared with optimistic future emission scenarios (B1 and B1 ACARE, presented in a companion paper, and with the recent past (year 2000. Present-day activity indicates that anthropogenic emissions so far evolve closer to A1B than the B1 scenario.

    As a response to expected changes in emissions, AIR and SHIP will have increased impacts on atmospheric O3 and OH in the future while the impact of ROAD traffic will decrease substantially as a result of technological improvements. In 2050, maximum aircraft-induced O3 occurs near 80° N in the UTLS region and could reach 9 ppbv in the zonal mean during summer. Emissions from ship traffic have their largest O3 impact in the maritime boundary layer with a maximum of 6 ppbv over the North Atlantic Ocean during summer in 2050. The O3 impact of road traffic emissions in the lower troposphere peaks at 3 ppbv over the Arabian Peninsula, much lower than the impact in 2000.

    Radiative forcing (RF calculations show that the net effect of AIR, SHIP and ROAD combined will change from a marginal cooling of −0.44 ± 13 mW m−2 in 2000 to a relatively strong cooling of −32 ± 9.3 (B1 or −32 ± 18 mW m−2 (A1B in 2050, when taking into account RF due to changes in O3, CH4 and CH4-induced O3. This is caused both by the enhanced negative net RF from SHIP, which will change from −19 ± 5.3 mW m−2 in 2000 to

  10. Partial Ambiguity Resolution for Ground and Space-Based Applications in a GPS+Galileo scenario: A simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nardo, A.; Li, B.; Teunissen, P. J. G.

    2016-01-01

    Integer Ambiguity Resolution (IAR) is the key to fast and precise GNSS positioning. The proper diagnostic metric for successful IAR is provided by the ambiguity success rate being the probability of correct integer estimation. In this contribution we analyse the performance of different GPS+Galileo models in terms of number of epochs needed to reach a pre-determined success rate, for various ground and space-based applications. The simulation-based controlled model environment enables us to gain insight into the factors contributing to the ambiguity resolution strength of the different GPS+Galileo models. Different scenarios of modernized GPS+Galileo are studied, encompassing the long baseline ground case as well as the medium dynamics case (airplane) and the space-based Low Earth Orbiter (LEO) case. In our analyses of these models the capabilities of partial ambiguity resolution (PAR) are demonstrated and compared to the limitations of full ambiguity resolution (FAR). The results show that PAR is generally a more efficient way than FAR to reduce the time needed to achieve centimetre-level positioning precision. For long single baselines, PAR can achieve time reductions of fifty percent to achieve such precision levels, while for multiple baselines it even becomes more effective, reaching reductions up to eighty percent for four station networks. For a LEO, the rapidly changing observation geometry does not even allow FAR, while PAR is then still possible for both dual- and triple-frequency scenarios. With the triple-frequency GPS+Galileo model the availability of precise positioning improves by fifteen percent with respect to the dual-frequency scenario.

  11. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Oteros-Rozas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Participatory scenario planning (PSP is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1 the context; (2 the original motivations and objectives; (3 the methodological approach; (4 the process; (5 the content of the scenarios; (6 the outputs of the research; and (7 the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges.

  12. Teaching Scenario-Based Planning for Sustainable Landscape Development: An Evaluation of Learning Effects in the Cagliari Studio Workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Albert

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the contributions of an intensive educational workshop to advance students’ understanding and skills for collaborative, scenario-based landscape planning. The research design involves a case study workshop with thirty international students and several regional experts as well as a multi-stage, in-process evaluation. The workshop resulted in six different alternative futures for the region of Cagliari, Italy, and a seventh combined version that was considered best by regional reviewers. The students’ learning evaluation showed substantial advances in their relevant understanding and skills. Key aspects of the workshop pedagogy and the evaluation are discussed, and recommendations for future applications presented.

  13. Study of the triton-burnup process in different JET scenarios using neutron monitor based on CVD diamond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemtsev, G., E-mail: g.nemtsev@iterrf.ru; Amosov, V.; Meshchaninov, S.; Rodionov, R. [Institution “Project center ITER,” Moscow (Russian Federation); Popovichev, S. [CCFE, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Collaboration: EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)

    2016-11-15

    We present the results of analysis of triton burn-up process using the data from diamond detector. Neutron monitor based on CVD diamond was installed in JET torus hall close to the plasma center. We measure the part of 14 MeV neutrons in scenarios where plasma current varies in a range of 1-3 MA. In this experiment diamond neutron monitor was also able to detect strong gamma bursts produced by runaway electrons arising during the disruptions. We can conclude that CVD diamond detector will contribute to the study of fast particles confinement and help predict the disruption events in future tokamaks.

  14. Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symstad, Amy J.; Miller, Brian W.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

    2017-12-18

    Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention.In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or

  15. The Nature of "Udeskole": Outdoor Learning Theory and Practice in Danish Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentsen, Peter; Jensen, Frank Sondergaard

    2012-01-01

    An increasing number of Danish teachers have started introducing school-based outdoor learning as a weekly or biweekly "outdoor school" day for school children--often called "udeskole" in Danish. Although at least 14% of Danish schools practise this form of outdoor teaching with some classes, it is not mentioned in the national…

  16. Shift in Occupational Risk for Basal Cell Carcinoma from Outdoor to Indoor Workers: A Large Population-based Case-control Register Study from Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindelöf, Bernt; Lapins, Jan; Dal, Henrik

    2017-07-06

    Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is the most common form of cancer worldwide. Exposure of the skin to ultraviolet (UV) radiation, from sunlight and other sources, is the most important risk factor. The aim of this large-scale case-control study was to determine which occupations are associated with increased risk of BCC in Sweden. The case cohort comprised 74,247 patients with BCC and the control cohort comprised 574,055 subjects linked to population-based registers. Compared with the occupational category of farmers, foresters and gardeners we observed elevated risks of BCC for almost all occupational categories studied. Legal workers with odds ratio (OR) 2.69 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.36-3.06), dentists OR 2.69 (95% CI 2.35-3.08) and physicians OR 2.47 (95% CI 2.24-2.74) had the highest risk for both sexes taken together. In conclusion, there appears to have been a change in the risk of BCC from outdoor to indoor occupations in Sweden, possibly related to exposure to UV radiation during leisure activities exceeding occupational sun exposure as the main cause of BCC in Sweden.

  17. A Cloud Robotics Based Service for Managing RPAS in Emergency, Rescue and Hazardous Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvagni, Mario; Chiaberge, Marcello; Sanguedolce, Claudio; Dara, Gianluca

    2016-04-01

    Cloud robotics and cloud services are revolutionizing not only the ICT world but also the robotics industry, giving robots more computing capabilities, storage and connection bandwidth while opening new scenarios that blend the physical to the digital world. In this vision, new IT architectures are required to manage robots, retrieve data from them and create services to interact with users. Among all the robots this work is mainly focused on flying robots, better known as drones, UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) or RPAS (Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems). The cloud robotics approach shifts the concept of having a single local "intelligence" for every single UAV, as a unique device that carries out onboard all the computation and storage processes, to a more powerful "centralized brain" located in the cloud. This breakthrough opens new scenarios where UAVs are agents, relying on remote servers for most of their computational load and data storage, creating a network of devices where they can share knowledge and information. Many applications, using UAVs, are growing as interesting and suitable devices for environment monitoring. Many services can be build fetching data from UAVs, such as telemetry, video streaming, pictures or sensors data; once. These services, part of the IT architecture, can be accessed via web by other devices or shared with other UAVs. As test cases of the proposed architecture, two examples are reported. In the first one a search and rescue or emergency management, where UAVs are required for monitoring intervention, is shown. In case of emergency or aggression, the user requests the emergency service from the IT architecture, providing GPS coordinates and an identification number. The IT architecture uses a UAV (choosing among the available one according to distance, service status, etc.) to reach him/her for monitoring and support operations. In the meantime, an officer will use the service to see the current position of the UAV, its

  18. A new scenario-based approach to damage detection using operational modal parameter estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, J.B.; Brincker, Rune; López-Aenlle, M.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper a vibration-based damage localization and quantification method, based on natural frequencies and mode shapes, is presented. The proposed technique is inspired by a damage assessment methodology based solely on the sensitivity of mass-normalized experimental determined mode shapes...

  19. Land-use scenarios for Finnish cut-over peatlands – based on the mineral subsoil characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Päivi T. Picken

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Finland, peat harvesting sites are exploited down almost to the mineral soil and the properties of mineral subsoil have considerable influence on the suitability of the various after-use forms. Chemical and physical features of the mineral subsoil must be studied whenafter-use is planned, to ensure no harmful effects follow. Research on mineral subsoils was carried out on Finnish peat production sites in 1997–1998 and 9800 hectares of peat production areas slowly getting exhausted were studied. The cutover area clearly suitable forforestation covered 57 % of the study area. The area well suitable for agriculture or energy crop growing covered 26-42 % of the study - depending if boulder-poor tills were included or excluded. Even larger areas might be possible for agriculture if for example remaining peat layer was used for compensating physical features of the mineral subsoil. Approximately 11 % was recommended for mire regeneration because of sensitive bottom soils, but much larger areas were possible for mire regeneratio. In 9 % of all cases fine mineral subsoils were on pool-forming locations and would this way offer sites best suitable for mire regeneration or even bird sanctuaries. Both EC and pH of the mineral subsoils were related to the presence of sulphur. The concentrations of Ca, Mg and K followed the fine-material percentage. Based on this study minimum analysis recommended was for pH, sulphur content and fine material (< 0.06 mm percentage. Other relevant elements were calcium, magnesium and potassium. Different land-use scenarios were created for areas inafter-use, released from peat production and in peat production (2004. These scenarios were based on the mineral subsoil suitability for different after-use forms. In these scenarios the total area annual carbon fixation values varied between 0.096 and 0.152 million t C a-1, when carbon emissions were not included.

  20. Outdoor lighting guide

    CERN Document Server

    2013-01-01

    As concern grows over environmental issues and light pollution, this book satisfies a need for a straightforward and accessible guide to the use, design and installation of outdoor lighting.This all-inclusive guide to exterior lighting from the Institution of Lighting Engineers, recognized as the pre-eminent professional source in the UK for authoritative guidance on exterior lighting, provides a comprehensive source of information and advice on all forms of exterior lighting, from floodlighting, buildings and road lighting to elaborate Christmas decorations. Useful to practitioners

  1. Indoor and Outdoor Allergies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Madhavi; Hays, Amy

    2016-09-01

    In last 30 to 40 years there has been a significant increase in the incidence of allergy. This increase cannot be explained by genetic factors alone. Increasing air pollution and its interaction with biological allergens along with changing lifestyles are contributing factors. Dust mites, molds, and animal allergens contribute to most of the sensitization in the indoor setting. Tree and grass pollens are the leading allergens in the outdoor setting. Worsening air pollution and increasing particulate matter worsen allergy symptoms and associated morbidity. Cross-sensitization of allergens is common. Treatment involves avoidance of allergens, modifying lifestyle, medical treatment, and immunotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Outdoor recreation-related outdoor education: scope of the research (1995-2010) 2

    OpenAIRE

    Lynch, Philippa

    2012-01-01

    This is part two of an article on the scope of the New Zealand outdoor recreation-related outdoor education research published from January 1995 to June 2010. It draws on the literature covered the 2010 Sport and Recreation New Zealand-funded Outdoor Recreation Research Stocktake, which included outdoor education material. This part covers resources for outdoor recreation-related outdoor education, and impacts of and participation in outdoor recreation-related outdoor education. It concludes ...

  3. The effects of scenario-based communication training on nurses' communication competence and self-efficacy and myocardial infarction knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Li-Ling; Huang, Ya-Hsuan; Hsieh, Suh-Ing

    2014-06-01

    The aim of the study was to determine the effects of a simulated communication training course on nurses' communication competence, self-efficacy, communication performance, myocardial infarction knowledge, and general satisfaction with their learning experience. A randomized controlled trial was conducted with a pre-test and two post-tests. The experimental group underwent simulated communication training course and the control group received a case-based communication training course. The experimental group made more significant improvement in competence and self-efficacy in communication from pre-test to the second post-test than the control group. Although both groups' satisfaction with their learning experience significantly increased from the first post-test to the second post-test, the experimental group was found to be more satisfied with their learning experience than the control group. No significant differences in communication performance and myocardial infarction knowledge between the two groups were identified. Scenario-based communication training can be more fully incorporated into in-service education for nurses to boost their competence and self-efficacy in communication and enhance their communication performance in myocardial infarction patient care. Introduction of real-life communication scenarios through multimedia in communication education could make learners more motivated to practice communication, hence leading to improved communication capacity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A scenario-based verification technique to assess the compatibility of collaborative business processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Backer, M.; Snoeck, M.; Monsieur, G.; Lemahieu, W.; Dedene, G.

    2009-01-01

    Successful E-Business is based on seamless collaborative business processes. Each partner in the collaboration specifies its own rules and interaction preconditions. The verification of the compatibility of collaborative business processes, based on local and global views, is a complex task, which

  5. Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-10-01

    Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. A solution to the water resources crisis in wetlands: development of a scenario-based modeling approach with uncertain features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Ying; Huang, Guohe; Sun, Wei

    2013-01-01

    A scenario-based interval two-phase fuzzy programming (SITF) method was developed for water resources planning in a wetland ecosystem. The SITF approach incorporates two-phase fuzzy programming, interval mathematical programming, and scenario analysis within a general framework. It can tackle fuzzy and interval uncertainties in terms of cost coefficients, resources availabilities, water demands, hydrological conditions and other parameters within a multi-source supply and multi-sector consumption context. The SITF method has the advantage in effectively improving the membership degrees of the system objective and all fuzzy constraints, so that both higher satisfactory grade of the objective and more efficient utilization of system resources can be guaranteed. Under the systematic consideration of water demands by the ecosystem, the SITF method was successfully applied to Baiyangdian Lake, which is the largest wetland in North China. Multi-source supplies (including the inter-basin water sources of Yuecheng Reservoir and Yellow River), and multiple water users (including agricultural, industrial and domestic sectors) were taken into account. The results indicated that, the SITF approach would generate useful solutions to identify long-term water allocation and transfer schemes under multiple economic, environmental, ecological, and system-security targets. It can address a comparative analysis for the system satisfactory degrees of decisions under various policy scenarios. Moreover, it is of significance to quantify the relationship between hydrological change and human activities, such that a scheme on ecologically sustainable water supply to Baiyangdian Lake can be achieved. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Seismic and Tsunami Waveform Simulation based on Dynamic Rupture Scenarios: Anticipated Nankai-Tonankai Earthquakes, Southwest Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, T.; Fukuyama, E.; Kim, S.

    2016-12-01

    Rupture scenarios of anticipated huge earthquakes based on earthquake physics and observational records should be useful for the hazard evaluation of future disastrous earthquakes. Hok et al. (2011, JGR) proposed possible dynamic rupture scenarios of anticipated Nankai-Tonankai huge earthquakes, southwest Japan using estimated slip deficit distribution and an appropriate fault friction law. These scenarios are quite useful to study the details of the wave propagation as well as potential earthquake and tsunami hazard (e.g. Kim et al. 2016, EPS). The objective in this study is to synthesize seismic and tsunami waveforms of the anticipated huge earthquakes, which could be useful for the future hazard assessment. We propose a method of synthesizing the waveforms, in particular, in the region of offshore focal area where seismic waves, ocean acoustic waves, and tsunamis simultaneously exist, which makes the wavefield very complicated. We calculated the seismic and tsunami waveforms caused by a dynamic rupture of huge earthquakes (Mw 8.5) southwestern Japan. There are two kinds of tsunami observations: ocean bottom pressure gauges detect tsunami as pressure change at the sea bottom and GPS tsunami gauges measure tsunami as vertical displacement at the sea surface. Our simulation results indicated that both tsunami records are significantly contaminated by seismic waves in a few minutes after the earthquake occurrence. The tsunami and seismic waves have different excitation mechanisms: seismic wave excitation strongly depends on the time scale of the rupture (moment rate), while tsunami excitation is determined by the static parameters (fault geometry and seismic moment). Therefore, for a reliable tsunami prediction, it is important to analyze observed tsunami records excluding the seismic waves that behave like tsunami near the source area.

  8. Bargaining-based jammer power allocation for dynamic eavesdropping scenario: Doc 1001

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Duan Bowen; Cai Yueming; Zheng Jianchao; Yang Weiwei; Yang Wendong

    2014-01-01

      This paper proposes a bargaining-based jammer power allocation scheme for multi-source multi-destination wireless network in the presence of a friendly jammer and a malicious node which eavesdrops erratically...

  9. A scenario-based verification technique to assess the compatibility of collaborative business processes.

    OpenAIRE

    De Backer, Manu; Snoeck, Monique; Monsieur, Geert; Lemahieu, Wilfried; Dedene, Guido

    2009-01-01

    Successful E-Business is based on seamless collaborative business processes. Each partner in the collaboration specifies its own rules and interaction preconditions. The verification of the compatibility of collaborative business processes, based on local and global views, is a complex task, which is critical for the success of the cooperation. The verification of process compatibility should be a key element in the design of new business alliances, which makes this verification essential in ...

  10. Problem-based scenarios with laptops: an effective combination for cross-curricular learning in mathematics, science and language

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Freiman

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Many educational systems consider using one-to-one access to the laptop as a way to improve teaching and learning. A two-year action research project on the use of laptop computers by New Brunswick (Canada grade 7 and 8 Francophone students aimed to better understand the impact of laptops on learning. Two problem-based learning (PBL interdisciplinary scenarios (math, science, language arts were implemented in eight experimental classes to measure and document students’ actual learning process, particularly in terms of their ability to scientifically investigate authentic problems, to reason mathematically, and to communicate. On-site observations, video-recording, journals, samples of students’ work, and interviews were used to collect qualitative data. Based on our findings, we argue that laptops in and of themselves may not automatically lead to better results on standardized tests, but rather create opportunities to enrich learning with more open-ended, constructive, collaborative, reflective, and cognitively complex learning tasks.

  11. Projection in Future Drought Hazard of South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario 8.5 Using SPEI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byung Sik Kim

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation data and temperature data on a 12.5 km × 12.5 km resolution based on a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, and the characteristics of drought were identified by the threshold. In addition, the changes in drought severity and intensity were projected using the threshold based on the run-length concept and frequency analysis. As a result of the analysis, the probability density function of the total drought and maximum drought intensity moved the upper tail for the upcoming years, and the average drought intensity was also projected to become stronger in the future than in the present to the right side. Through this, it could be projected that the drought scale and frequency and the drought intensity will become severer over South Korea because of future climate change.

  12. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

    2016-03-24

    Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML.

  13. A triangular fuzzy TOPSIS-based approach for the application of water technologies in different emergency water supply scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Jianhua; Meng, Xianlin; Yu, Huan; You, Hong

    2016-09-01

    Because of the increasing frequency and intensity of unexpected natural disasters, providing safe drinking water for the affected population following a disaster has become a global challenge of growing concern. An onsite water supply technology that is portable, mobile, or modular is a more suitable and sustainable solution for the victims than transporting bottled water. In recent years, various water techniques, such as membrane-assisted technologies, have been proposed and successfully implemented in many places. Given the diversity of techniques available, the current challenge is how to scientifically identify the optimum options for different disaster scenarios. Hence, a fuzzy triangular-based multi-criteria, group decision-making tool was developed in this research. The approach was then applied to the selection of the most appropriate water technologies corresponding to the different emergency water supply scenarios. The results show this tool capable of facilitating scientific analysis in the evaluation and selection of emergency water technologies for enduring security drinking water supply in disaster relief.

  14. Scenarios Analysis of the Energies’ Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanying Chi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the development trends and variation characteristics of China’s economy, energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2007 to 2030, and the impacts on China’s economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions under the carbon tax policy scenarios, based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model. The results show that during the simulation period, China’s economy will keep a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down under the benchmark scenario. The energy consumption intensity and the carbon emissions intensity per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP will continually decrease. The energy consumption structure and industrial structure will gradually optimize. With the economic growth, the total energy consumption will constantly increase, and the carbon dioxide emissions are still large, and the situation of energy-saving and emission-reduction is still serious. The carbon tax is very important for energy-saving and emission-reduction and energy consumption structure optimization, and the effect of the carbon tax on GDP is small. If the carbon tax could be levied and the enterprise income tax could be reduced at the same time, the dual goals of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions and increasing the GDP growth can be achieved. Improving the technical progress level of clean power while implementing a carbon tax policy is very meaningful to optimize energy consumption structure and reduce the carbon emissions, but it has some offsetting effect to reduce energy consumption.

  15. Cultural Adaptation in Outdoor Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabrizio, Sheila M.; Neill, James

    2005-01-01

    Outdoor programs often intentionally provide a different culture and the challenge of working out how to adapt. Failure to adapt, however, can cause symptoms of culture shock, including homesickness, negative personal behavior, and interpersonal conflict. This article links cross-cultural and outdoor programming literature and provides case…

  16. Financing of Private Outdoor Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bureau of Outdoor Recreation (Dept. of Interior), Washington, DC.

    A survey of financial institutions was undertaken by the Bureau of Outdoor Recreation to evaluate the demand and availability of private credit for enterprises that provide outdoor recreation. The survey provided basic information for (1) evaluating legislative proposals for loan guarantee programs, (2) nationwide planning, and (3) assessing the…

  17. Trends in outdoor recreation legislation

    Science.gov (United States)

    George H. Siehl

    1980-01-01

    The two decades which have passed since the era of the Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission (ORRRC) have been active and fruitful in terms of Federal recreation legislation. The Commission and its final report "Outdoor Recreation for America" strongly influenced the burst of recreation legislation in the 1960's. Even today, the studies prepared...

  18. An Empirical Outdoor-to-Indoor Path Loss Model from below 6 GHz to cm-Wave Frequency Bands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Kovács, István Z.

    2017-01-01

    This letter presents an empirical multi-frequency outdoor-to-indoor path loss model. The model is based on measurements performed on the exact same set of scenarios for different frequency bands ranging from traditional cellular allocations below 6 GHz (0.8, 2, 3.5 and 5.2 GHz), up to cm-wave...... frequencies (10, 18 and 28 GHz). The model has applicability similar to the typical 3GPP and ITU-R outdoor-to-indoor simplified models, including the multi-frequency formulation recently included in the 3GPP TR 38.900. This letter highlights some of the details behind these simplified models and provides...... additional modeling for internal multi-wall attenuation and associated shadow fading....

  19. Supply Chain Simulator: A Scenario-Based Educational Tool to Enhance Student Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, Atiq; Khan, Mehmood; Akhtar, Sohail

    2008-01-01

    Simulation-based educational products are excellent set of illustrative tools that proffer features like visualization of the dynamic behavior of a real system, etc. Such products have great efficacy in education and are known to be one of the first-rate student centered learning methodologies. These products allow students to practice skills such…

  20. Scenario-based Requirements Elicitation in a Pain-teletreatment Application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Widya, I.A.; Bults, Richard G.A.; Huis in 't Veld, M.H.A.; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam Marie Rosé; Shishkov, Boris; Cordeiro, J.; Ranchordas, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a way to elicit requirements in the domain of eHealth, in particular telemedicine treatment, that is in alignment with the evidence based working practice in medicine. In collaboration with ICT developers, medical professionals co-shape the intended system, which has to support

  1. A model based method for evaluation of crop operation scenarios in greenhouses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooster, van 't A.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract This research initiated a model-based method to analyse labour in crop production systems and to quantify effects of system changes in order to contribute to effective greenhouse crop cultivation systems with efficient use of human labour and technology. This method was

  2. Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert G. Haight; Jeremy S. Fried

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire managers deploy suppression resources to bases and dispatch them to fires to maximize the percentage of fires that are successfully contained before unacceptable costs and losses occur. Deployment is made with budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number, location, and intensity of fires, all of which affect initial-attack success. To address...

  3. Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert G. Haight; Jeremy S. Fried

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire managers deploy suppression resources to bases and dispatch them to fires to maximize the percentage of fires that are successfully contained before unacceptable costs and losses occur. Deployment is made with budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number, location, and intensity of fires, all of which affect initial-attack success. To address...

  4. The emergence of climate change mitigation action by society : An agent-based scenario discovery study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greeven, Sebastiaan; Kraan, O.D.E.; Chappin, E.J.L.; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the

  5. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurabh Gupta BPharm

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories, service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models.

  6. Use case scenarios - space based receiver assessment : GPS Adjacent Band Compatibility Assessment Workshop VI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-30

    This workshop presentation discusses space based receiver applications, NASA developed receivers, the TriG receiver, on-orbit assessment parameters, the TriG GNSS-RO antenna gain pattern, the GNSS-RO antenna beam Earth grazing coverage area, assessme...

  7. Physician consensus on preventability and predictability of readmissions based on standard case scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Galen, L. S.; Cooksley, T; Merten, H

    2016-01-01

    was poor. This study indicates that assessing preventability of readmissions based solely on the judgement of physicians is far from perfect. Current literature on the preventability of readmissions and conclusions derived on the basis of physician opinion should be interpreted with caution.......Background: Policy makers struggle with unplanned readmissions as a quality indicator since integrating preventability in such indicators is difficult. Most studies on the preventability of readmissions questioned physicians whether they consider a given readmission to be preventable, from which...... conclusions on factors predicting preventable readmissions were derived. There is no literature on the interobserver agreement of physician judgement. Aim: To assess the degree of agreement among physicians regarding predictability and preventability of medical readmissions. Design: An online survey based...

  8. Using a Flexible Skill-Based Approach to Recognize Objects in Industrial Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Rasmus Skovgaard; Schou, Casper; Damgaard, Jens Skov

    2016-01-01

    as well as the need for highly specialized staff for setting up modern collaborative robots. This paper proposes a skill for recognition and classification of different objects. The skill is parameterized using manual kinesthetic teaching, and machine learning based on SIFT features, Bag of Words, and SVM......Traditional industrial robots are highly efficient and precise and therefore well suited for carrying out simple, repetitive tasks. They are, however, complicated and time consuming to setup and re-program to perform new tasks. Skill-based programming attempts to reduce both the required time...... is used to classify objects. A user study with 20 test participants shows that robotics novices after only a short introduction are able to instruct the skill and combine it with other skills (pick and place) to program a complete task....

  9. Sustainability assessment of electricity production technologies based on the turkish RES scenario in 2020

    OpenAIRE

    Tunarli, Korhan

    2014-01-01

    Environmental protection, economic development and social development are known to be three pillars of sustainability that should exist together for sustainable development. Sustainability assessment can be carried out for products, technologies, policies and processes. In this master thesis project, three pillars of sustainability are deeply studied with regards to electricity production technologies in Turkey for year 2020, in which futuristic projections are based on one chosen renewable e...

  10. Validation of a scenario-based assessment of critical thinking using an externally validated tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buur, Jennifer L; Schmidt, Peggy; Smylie, Dean; Irizarry, Kris; Crocker, Carlos; Tyler, John; Barr, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    With medical education transitioning from knowledge-based curricula to competency-based curricula, critical thinking skills have emerged as a major competency. While there are validated external instruments for assessing critical thinking, many educators have created their own custom assessments of critical thinking. However, the face validity of these assessments has not been challenged. The purpose of this study was to compare results from a custom assessment of critical thinking with the results from a validated external instrument of critical thinking. Students from the College of Veterinary Medicine at Western University of Health Sciences were administered a custom assessment of critical thinking (ACT) examination and the externally validated instrument, California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST), in the spring of 2011. Total scores and sub-scores from each exam were analyzed for significant correlations using Pearson correlation coefficients. Significant correlations between ACT Blooms 2 and deductive reasoning and total ACT score and deductive reasoning were demonstrated with correlation coefficients of 0.24 and 0.22, respectively. No other statistically significant correlations were found. The lack of significant correlation between the two examinations illustrates the need in medical education to externally validate internal custom assessments. Ultimately, the development and validation of custom assessments of non-knowledge-based competencies will produce higher quality medical professionals.

  11. Mitigation measures for pandemic influenza in Italy: an individual based model considering different scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Luisa Ciofi degli Atti

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Individual-based models can provide the most reliable estimates of the spread of infectious diseases. In the present study, we evaluated the diffusion of pandemic influenza in Italy and the impact of various control measures, coupling a global SEIR model for importation of cases with an individual based model (IBM describing the Italian epidemic. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We co-located the Italian population (57 million inhabitants to households, schools and workplaces and we assigned travel destinations to match the 2001 census data. We considered different R(0 values (1.4; 1.7; 2, evaluating the impact of control measures (vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis -AVP-, international air travel restrictions and increased social distancing. The administration of two vaccine doses was considered, assuming that first dose would be administered 1-6 months after the first world case, and different values for vaccine effectiveness (VE. With no interventions, importation would occur 37-77 days after the first world case. Air travel restrictions would delay the importation of the pandemic by 7-37 days. With an R(0 of 1.4 or 1.7, the use of combined measures would reduce clinical attack rates (AR from 21-31% to 0.3-4%. Assuming an R(0 of 2, the AR would decrease from 38% to 8%, yet only if vaccination were started within 2 months of the first world case, in combination with a 90% reduction in international air traffic, closure of schools/workplaces for 4 weeks and AVP of household and school/work close contacts of clinical cases. Varying VE would not substantially affect the results. CONCLUSIONS: This IBM, which is based on country-specific demographic data, could be suitable for the real-time evaluation of measures to be undertaken in the event of the emergence of a new pandemic influenza virus. All preventive measures considered should be implemented to mitigate the pandemic.

  12. EDGE TECHNOLOGIES IN IoT AND APPLICATION SCENARIO OF RFID BASED IoT

    OpenAIRE

    Dharam Gami *, Asst. Prof. Dhaval Nimavat, Asst. Prof. Shubham Sharma

    2016-01-01

    Internet of Things possesses the power to change the era. IoT will offer an advance connectivity between objects which will change the face of machine-to-machine communication. IoT will connect autonomous systems, devices and heterogeneous machines and make them communicate without human interactions. Many technologies will play significant role in IoT implementation. In this paper, we aim to describe the candidate of edge technologies in IoT and demonstrate how RFID based IoT system will loo...

  13. Building Damage Assessment Using Scenario Based Tsunami Numerical Analysis and Fragility Curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khawar Rehman

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A combination of a deterministic approach and fragility analysis is applied to assess tsunami damage caused to buildings. The area selected to validate the model is Imwon Port in Korea. The deterministic approach includes numerical modeling of tsunami propagation in the East Sea following an earthquake on the western coast of Japan. The model is based on the linear shallow-water equations (LSWE augmented with Boussinesq approximation to account for dispersion effects in wave propagation, and coastal wave run-up is modeled by non-linear shallow-water equations (NLSWE. The output from the deterministic model comprises inundation depth. The numerical output is used to perform fragility analysis for buildings vulnerable to flooding by tsunamis in the port area. Recently developed fragility curves—based on the ordinal regression method—are used for damage probability estimates. The extent of structural damage in the areas under a tsunami hazard is identified by the numerical modeling of tsunami features. Our numerical model offers high bathymetric resolution, which enables us to capture flow features at the individual structure level and results in improved estimation of damage probability. This approach can serve as a measure of assessing structure vulnerability for areas with little or no records of tsunami damage and provide planners with a better understanding of structure behavior when a tsunami strikes.

  14. Ray-Based Statistical Propagation Modeling for Indoor Corridor Scenarios at 15 GHz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the demands for fifth-generation (5G communication systems, high frequency bands (above 6 GHz need to be adopted to provide additional spectrum. This paper investigates the characteristics of indoor corridor channels at 15 GHz. Channel measurements with a vector network analyzer in two corridors were conducted. Based on a ray-optical approach, a deterministic channel model covering both antenna and propagation characteristic is presented. The channel model is evaluated by comparing simulated results of received power and root mean square delay spread with the corresponding measurements. By removing the impact of directional antennas from the transmitter and receiver, a path loss model as well as small-scale fading properties for typical corridors is presented based on the generated samples from the deterministic model. Results show that the standard deviation of path loss variation is related to the Tx height, and placing the Tx closer to the ceiling leads to a smaller fluctuation of path loss.

  15. South African maize production scenarios for 2055 using a combined empirical and process-based model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, L.; Bradley, B.; Oppenheimer, M.; Wilcove, D.; Beukes, H.; Schulze, R. E.; Tadross, M.

    2011-12-01

    In South Africa, a semi-arid country with a diverse agricultural sector, climate change is projected to negatively impact staple crop production. Our study examines future impacts to maize, South Africa's most widely grown staple crop. Working at finer spatial resolution than previous studies, we combine the process-based DSSAT4.5 and the empirical MAXENT models to study future maize suitability. Climate scenarios were based on 9 GCMs run under SRES A2 and B1 emissions scenarios down-scaled (using self-organizing maps) to 5838 locations. Soil properties were derived from textural and compositional data linked to 26422 landforms. DSSAT was run with typical dryland planting parameters and mean projected CO2 values. MAXENT was trained using aircraft-observed distributions and monthly climatologies data derived from downscaled daily records, with future rainfall increased by 10% to simulate CO2 related water-use efficiency gains. We assessed model accuracy based on correlations between model output and a satellite-derived yield proxy (integrated NDVI), and the overlap of modeled and observed maize field distributions. DSSAT yields were linearly correlated to mean integrated NDVI (R2 = 0.38), while MAXENT's relationship was logistic. Binary suitability maps based on thresholding model outputs were slightly more accurate for MAXENT (88%) than for DSSAT (87%) when compared to current maize field distribution. We created 18 suitability maps for each model (9 GCMs X 2 SRES) using projected changes relative to historical suitability thresholds. Future maps largely agreed in eastern South Africa, but disagreed strongly in the semi-arid west. Using a 95% confidence criterion (17 models agree), MAXENT showed a 241305 km2 suitability loss relative to its modeled historical suitability, while DSSAT showed a potential loss of only 112446 km2. Even the smaller potential loss highlighted by DSSAT is uncertain, given that DSSAT's mean (across all 18 climate scenarios) projected yield

  16. The Nankai Trough earthquake tsunamis in Korea: Numerical studies of the 1707 Hoei earthquake and physics-based scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S.; Saito, T.; Fukuyama, E.; Kang, T. S.

    2016-12-01

    Historical documents in Korea and China report abnormal waves in the sea and rivers close to the date of the 1707 Hoei earthquake, which occurred in the Nankai Trough, off southwestern Japan. This indicates that the tsunami caused by the Hoei earthquake might have reached Korea and China, which suggests a potential hazard in Korea from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. We conducted tsunami simulations to study the details of tsunamis in Korea caused by large earthquakes. We employed the 1707 Hoei earthquake source model and physics-based scenarios of anticipated earthquake in the Nankai subduction zone. We also considered the effect of horizontal displacement on tsunami generation. Our simulation results from the Hoei earthquake model and the anticipated earthquake models showed that the maximum tsunami height along the Korean coast was less than 0.5 m. Even though the tsunami is not life-threatening, the effect of larger earthquakes should be still considered.

  17. BRISENT: An Entropy-Based Model for Bridge-Pier Scour Estimation under Complex Hydraulic Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alonso Pizarro

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to introduce the first clear-water scour model based on both the informational entropy concept and the principle of maximum entropy, showing that a variational approach is ideal for describing erosional processes under complex situations. The proposed bridge–pier scour entropic (BRISENT model is capable of reproducing the main dynamics of scour depth evolution under steady hydraulic conditions, step-wise hydrographs, and flood waves. For the calibration process, 266 clear-water scour experiments from 20 precedent studies were considered, where the dimensionless parameters varied widely. Simple formulations are proposed to estimate BRISENT’s fitting coefficients, in which the ratio between pier-diameter and sediment-size was the most critical physical characteristic controlling scour model parametrization. A validation process considering highly unsteady and multi-peaked hydrographs was carried out, showing that the proposed BRISENT model reproduces scour evolution with high accuracy.

  18. Moral foundations vignettes: a standardized stimulus database of scenarios based on moral foundations theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifford, Scott; Iyengar, Vijeth; Cabeza, Roberto; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter

    2015-12-01

    Research on the emotional, cognitive, and social determinants of moral judgment has surged in recent years. The development of moral foundations theory (MFT) has played an important role, demonstrating the breadth of morality. Moral psychology has responded by investigating how different domains of moral judgment are shaped by a variety of psychological factors. Yet, the discipline lacks a validated set of moral violations that span the moral domain, creating a barrier to investigating influences on judgment and how their neural bases might vary across the moral domain. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by developing and validating a large set of moral foundations vignettes (MFVs). Each vignette depicts a behavior violating a particular moral foundation and not others. The vignettes are controlled on many dimensions including syntactic structure and complexity making them suitable for neuroimaging research. We demonstrate the validity of our vignettes by examining respondents' classifications of moral violations, conducting exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and demonstrating the correspondence between the extracted factors and existing measures of the moral foundations. We expect that the MFVs will be beneficial for a wide variety of behavioral and neuroimaging investigations of moral cognition.

  19. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES: Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher L Cummings

    Full Text Available Synthetic biology (SB applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  20. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Christopher L; Kuzma, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  1. Simulating Interactive Learning Scenarios with Intelligent Pedagogical Agents in a Virtual World through BDI-Based Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Soliman

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Intelligent Pedagogical Agents (IPAs are designed for pedagogical purposes to support learning in 3D virtual learning environments. Several benefits of IPAs have been found adding to support learning effectiveness. Pedagogical agents can be thought of as a central point of interaction between the learner and the learning environment. And hence, the intelligent behavior and functional richness of pedagogical agents have the potential to reward back into increased engagement and learning effectiveness. However, the realization of those agents remains to be a challenge based on intelligent agents in virtual worlds. This paper reports the challenging reasons and most importantly an approach for simplification. A simulation based on BDI agents is introduced opening the road for several extensions and experimentation before implementation of IPAs in a virtual world can take place. The simulation provides a proof-of concept based on three intelligent agents to represent an IPA, a learner, and learning object implemented in JACK and Jadex intelligent agent platforms. To that end, the paper exhibits the difficulties, resolutions, and decisions made when designing and implementing the learning scenario in both domains of the virtual world and the agent-based simulation while comparing the two agent platforms.

  2. Outdoor recreation-related outdoor education: scope of the research (1995-2010) 2

    OpenAIRE

    Lynch, Philippa

    2012-01-01

    Article made available with the permission of the New Zealand Journal of Outdoor Education. This is part two of an article on the scope of the New Zealand outdoor recreation-related outdoor education research published from January 1995 to June 2010. It draws on the literature covered the 2010 Sport and Recreation New Zealand-funded Outdoor Recreation Research Stocktake, which included outdoor education material. This part covers resources for outdoor recreation-related outdoor education, ...

  3. Quantitative evaluation of lake eutrophication responses under alternative water diversion scenarios: a water quality modeling based statistical analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yong; Wang, Yilin; Sheng, Hu; Dong, Feifei; Zou, Rui; Zhao, Lei; Guo, Huaicheng; Zhu, Xiang; He, Bin

    2014-01-15

    China is confronting the challenge of accelerated lake eutrophication, where Lake Dianchi is considered as the most serious one. Eutrophication control for Lake Dianchi began in the mid-1980s. However, decision makers have been puzzled by the lack of visible water quality response to past efforts given the tremendous investment. Therefore, decision makers desperately need a scientifically sound way to quantitatively evaluate the response of lake water quality to proposed management measures and engineering works. We used a water quality modeling based scenario analysis approach to quantitatively evaluate the eutrophication responses of Lake Dianchi to an under-construction water diversion project. The primary analytic framework was built on a three-dimensional hydrodynamic, nutrient fate and transport, as well as algae dynamics model, which has previously been calibrated and validated using historical data. We designed 16 scenarios to analyze the water quality effects of three driving forces, including watershed nutrient loading, variations in diverted inflow water, and lake water level. A two-step statistical analysis consisting of an orthogonal test analysis and linear regression was then conducted to distinguish the contributions of various driving forces to lake water quality. The analysis results show that (a) the different ways of managing the diversion projects would result in different water quality response in Lake Dianchi, though the differences do not appear to be significant; (b) the maximum reduction in annual average and peak Chl-a concentration from the various ways of diversion project operation are respectively 11% and 5%; (c) a combined 66% watershed load reduction and water diversion can eliminate the lake hypoxia volume percentage from the existing 6.82% to 3.00%; and (d) the water diversion will decrease the occurrence of algal blooms, and the effect of algae reduction can be enhanced if diverted water are seasonally allocated such that wet

  4. Scenarios, personas and user stories: user-centered evidence-based design representations of communicable disease investigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Anne M; Reeder, Blaine; Ramey, Judith

    2013-08-01

    Despite years of effort and millions of dollars spent to create unified electronic communicable disease reporting systems, the goal remains elusive. A major barrier has been a lack of understanding by system designers of communicable disease (CD) work and the public health workers who perform this work. This study reports on the application of user-centered design representations, traditionally used for improving interface design, to translate the complex CD work identified through ethnographic studies to guide designers and developers of CD systems. The purpose of this work is to: (1) better understand public health practitioners and their information workflow with respect to CD monitoring and control at a local health agency, and (2) to develop evidence-based design representations that model this CD work to inform the design of future disease surveillance systems. We performed extensive onsite semi-structured interviews, targeted work shadowing and a focus group to characterize local health agency CD workflow. Informed by principles of design ethnography and user-centered design we created persona, scenarios and user stories to accurately represent the user to system designers. We sought to convey to designers the key findings from ethnographic studies: (1) public health CD work is mobile and episodic, in contrast to current CD reporting systems, which are stationary and fixed, (2) health agency efforts are focused on CD investigation and response rather than reporting and (3) current CD information systems must conform to public health workflow to ensure their usefulness. In an effort to illustrate our findings to designers, we developed three contemporary design-support representations: persona, scenario, and user story. Through application of user-centered design principles, we were able to create design representations that illustrate complex public health communicable disease workflow and key user characteristics to inform the design of CD information

  5. Scenarios, personas and user stories from design ethnography: Evidence-based design representations of communicable disease investigations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Anne M; Reeder, Blaine; Ramey, Judith

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Despite years of effort and millions of dollars spent to create a unified electronic communicable disease reporting systems, the goal remains elusive. A major barrier has been a lack of understanding by system designers of communicable disease (CD) work and the public health workers who perform this work. This study reports on the application of User Center Design representations, traditionally used for improving interface design, to translate the complex CD work identified through ethnographic studies to guide designers and developers of CD systems. The purpose of this work is to: (1) better understand public health practitioners and their information workflow with respect to communicable disease (CD) monitoring and control at a local health department, and (2) to develop evidence-based design representations that model this CD work to inform the design of future disease surveillance systems. Methods We performed extensive onsite semi-structured interviews, targeted work shadowing and a focus group to characterize local health department communicable disease workflow. Informed by principles of design ethnography and user-centered design (UCD) we created persona, scenarios and user stories to accurately represent the user to system designers. Results We sought to convey to designers the key findings from ethnographic studies: 1) that public health CD work is mobile and episodic, in contrast to current CD reporting systems, which are stationary and fixed 2) health department efforts are focused on CD investigation and response rather than reporting and 3) current CD information systems must conform to PH workflow to ensure their usefulness. In an effort to illustrate our findings to designers, we developed three contemporary design-support representations: persona, scenario, and user story. Conclusions Through application of user centered design principles, we were able to create design representations that illustrate complex public health communicable

  6. Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaiee, Mohammad Mahdi; Gholamnia, Reza; Ketabdari, Mohammad Javad

    2016-09-01

    Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

  7. Multi-GPU based framework for real-time motion analysis and tracking in multi-user scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sidi Ahmed Mahmoudi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Video processing algorithms present a necessary tool for various domains related to computer vision such as motion tracking, event detection and localization in multi-user scenarios (crowd videos, mobile camera, scenes with noise, etc.. However, the new video standards, especially those in high definitions require more computation since their treatment is applied on large video frames. As result, the current implementations, even running on modern hardware, cannot provide a real-time processing (25 frames per second, fps. Several solutions have been proposed to overcome this constraint, by exploiting graphic processing units (GPUs. Although they exploit GPU platforms, they are not able to provide a real-time processing of high definition video sequences. In this work, we propose a new framework that enables an efficient exploitation of single and multiple GPUs, in order to achieve real-time processing of Full HD or even 4K video standards. Moreover, the framework includes several GPU based primitive functions related to motion analysis and tracking methods, such as silhouette extraction, contours extraction, corners detection and tracking using optical flow estimation. Based on this framework, we developed several real-time and GPU based video processing applications such as motion detection using moving camera, event detection and event localization

  8. A Semantic Web-Based Authoring Tool to Facilitate the Planning of Collaborative Learning Scenarios Compliant with Learning Theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isotani, Seiji; Mizoguchi, Riichiro; Isotani, Sadao; Capeli, Olimpio M.; Isotani, Naoko; de Albuquerque, Antonio R. P. L.; Bittencourt, Ig. I.; Jaques, Patricia

    2013-01-01

    When the goal of group activities is to support long-term learning, the task of designing well-thought-out collaborative learning (CL) scenarios is an important key to success. To help students adequately acquire and develop their knowledge and skills, a teacher can plan a scenario that increases the probability for learning to occur. Such a…

  9. Scenario based product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tideman, M.

    2008-01-01

    Creating good products is not an easy thing to do. There are usually many different people who have an interest in the product. People such as the user, of course, but also marketing managers, production engineers, maintenance workers, recycling specialists, and government representatives, just to

  10. CFC Outdoor Tournament 2011

    CERN Multimedia

    2011-01-01

    Regardless of whether you’re a fan of the "beautiful game", you’ve probably heard that the CFC Outdoor Tournament 2011 is the sporting event of the year for the CERN Football Club. This unmissable social, cultural and sporting event will be a chance for CERNois to mingle with external visitors. In the 2011 edition of this legendary tournament, which is over 45 years old, the principle of “fair play” is once again on display. Ten teams – 8 from CERN – are competing for the CFC title. The tournament concludes with a final on 7 July final. Along with a thrilling match, there will also be a host of festivities for the final, including an exhibition game, the final awards ceremony, surprise gifts, a barbeque, musical performances, and more! Make sure to highlight 7 July (after 18.00) on your agenda, and take advantage of what will surely be an unforgettable day! The final tournament matches have been in progress since April and are ...

  11. Visual Rhetoric in Outdoor Advertising

    OpenAIRE

    Seliger, Marja

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a research, the aim of which is to find out how graphic expressions and visual language can be used for persuasion. The research material consists of outdoor advertisements photographed in their actual exhibition places in a city environment. Outdoor advertising media, which are used to communicate visual messages from a sender to several addressees, participate in building the visual city culture and open manifold solutions in design. The visual language used in the resear...

  12. The Comparison of Distributed P2P Trust Models Based on Quantitative Parameters in the File Downloading Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingpei Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Varied P2P trust models have been proposed recently; it is necessary to develop an effective method to evaluate these trust models to resolve the commonalities (guiding the newly generated trust models in theory and individuality (assisting a decision maker in choosing an optimal trust model to implement in specific context issues. A new method for analyzing and comparing P2P trust models based on hierarchical parameters quantization in the file downloading scenarios is proposed in this paper. Several parameters are extracted from the functional attributes and quality feature of trust relationship, as well as requirements from the specific network context and the evaluators. Several distributed P2P trust models are analyzed quantitatively with extracted parameters modeled into a hierarchical model. The fuzzy inferring method is applied to the hierarchical modeling of parameters to fuse the evaluated values of the candidate trust models, and then the relative optimal one is selected based on the sorted overall quantitative values. Finally, analyses and simulation are performed. The results show that the proposed method is reasonable and effective compared with the previous algorithms.

  13. A specific scenario for the origin of life and the genetic code based on peptide/oligonucleotide interdependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Robert W

    2009-12-01

    Among various scenarios that attempt to explain how life arose, the RNA world is currently the most widely accepted scientific hypothesis among biologists. However, the RNA world is logistically implausible and doesn't explain how translation arose and DNA became incorporated into living systems. Here I propose an alternative hypothesis for life's origin based on cooperation between simple nucleic acids, peptides and lipids. Organic matter that accumulated on the prebiotic Earth segregated into phases in the ocean based on density and solubility. Synthesis of complex organic monomers and polymerization reactions occurred within a surface hydrophilic layer and at its aqueous and atmospheric interfaces. Replication of nucleic acids and translation of peptides began at the emulsified interface between hydrophobic and aqueous layers. At the core of the protobiont was a family of short nucleic acids bearing arginine's codon and anticodon that added this amino acid to pre-formed peptides. In turn, the survival and replication of nucleic acid was aided by the peptides. The arginine-enriched peptides served to sequester and transfer phosphate bond energy and acted as cohesive agents, aggregating nucleic acids and keeping them at the interface.

  14. Quantification of Scenario Distance within Generic WINNER Channel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Narandžić

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the premise that stochastic properties of a radio environment can be abstracted by defining scenarios, a generic MIMO channel model is built by the WINNER project. The parameter space of the WINNER model is, among others, described by normal probability distributions and correlation coefficients that provide a suitable space for scenario comparison. The possibility to quantify the distance between reference scenarios and measurements enables objective comparison and classification of measurements into scenario classes. In this paper we approximate the WINNER scenarios with multivariate normal distributions and then use the mean Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify their divergence. The results show that the WINNER scenario groups (A, B, C, and D or propagation classes (LoS, OLoS, and NLoS do not necessarily ensure minimum separation within the groups/classes. Instead, the following grouping minimizes intragroup distances: (i indoor-to-outdoor and outdoor-to-indoor scenarios (A2, B4, and C4, (ii macrocell configurations for suburban, urban, and rural scenarios (C1, C2, and D1, and (iii indoor/hotspot/microcellular scenarios (A1, B3, and B1. The computation of the divergence between Ilmenau and Dresden measurements and WINNER scenarios confirms that the parameters of the C2 scenario are a proper reference for a large variety of urban macrocell environments.

  15. [Outdoor activity and myopia among 681 primary students in urban and rural regions of Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yin; Liu, Lijuan; Xu, Liang; Lü, Yanyun; Tang, Ping; Feng, Yi

    2014-01-21

    To explore the association between outdoor activity and myopia among 681 primary students from Beijing. School-based, cross-sectional investigation. Eye examination includes the visual acuity test, auto-refractor, slit lamp, ocular biometry and non-mydriatic fundus camera. Questionnaire includes regular items, near work, outdoor activity and social-economic status. The mean time spent outdoors was 1.6 ± 0.8 hours daily. Time spent on outdoor sports and outdoor leisure were 0.7 ± 0.1 hours daily, 1.0 ± 0.8 hours daily, respectively. Mean time of outdoor activity in urban was 1.1 ± 0.4 hours daily, compared with 2.2 ± 0.8 hours daily in rural (P = 0.000). In grade-1, total time spent outdoors is significantly different between myopia and non-myopia (1.4 ± 0.6 vs 1.8 ± 0.8 hours daily, P = 0.000), similar to outdoor leisure (0.8 ± 0.6 vs 1.1 ± 0.9 hours daily, P = 0.000). The same trend was also found in grade-4. The mean time spent outdoors was 1.6 ± 0.8 hours daily. Myopia spent a lower outdoor activity compared with non-myopia. More outdoor activity, e.g., in schools, may potentially be helpful to reduce the high prevalence of myopia in the young generation.

  16. The Seniors' Outdoor Survey: An Observational Tool for Assessing Outdoor Environments at Long-Term Care Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodiek, Susan; Nejati, Adeleh; Bardenhagen, Eric; Lee, Chanam; Senes, Giulio

    2016-04-01

    To describe the development and psychometric testing of the Seniors' Outdoor Survey (SOS), an instrument for evaluating how well the outdoor space in a long-term care setting supports the preferences and outdoor usage of residents. Content validity of the main SOS items initially was based on relevant literature and preliminary studies in diverse long-term care settings. After conducting a multiregional pilot study with 152 outdoor spaces at 68 assisted living facilities, the instrument was substantially revised and tested for interrater and test-retest reliability with 22 outdoor spaces at 12 long-term care settings, using 2 raters. Validity was examined using content analysis of resident survey responses (N = 1,128) from the multiregional study and specific item validation by subject matter experts (N = 53). The final instrument contains 60 ratable items organized in 5 domains: access to nature (14 items), outdoor comfort and safety (15 items), walking and outdoor activities (14 items), indoor-outdoor connection (11 items), and connection to the world (6 items). Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) estimates of interrater reliability were .91 for the overall instrument, ranging from .83 to .98 for the 5 domains. Interrater reliability (ICC) was above .70 for more than 79% of individual items. Test-retest reliability (ICC) was .92, ranging from .81 to .98 for domains. The SOS tool fills a gap in the available environmental assessment instruments, providing a reliable way for researchers, providers, and designers to evaluate and compare the supportive potential of outdoor spaces for long-term care residents. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. [A Study on the Cognitive Learning Effectiveness of Scenario-Based Concept Mapping in a Neurological Nursing Course].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Hui-Ching; Hsieh, Suh-Ing; Hsu, Li-Ling

    2015-12-01

    The multiple levels of knowledge related to the neurological system deter many students from pursuing studies on this topic. Thus, in facing complicated and uncertain medical circumstances, nursing students have diffi-culty adjusting and using basic neurological-nursing knowledge and skills. Scenario-based concept-mapping teaching has been shown to promote the integration of complicated data, clarify related concepts, and increase the effectiveness of cognitive learning. To investigate the effect on the neurological-nursing cognition and learning attitude of nursing students of a scenario-based concept-mapping strategy that was integrated into the neurological nursing unit of a medical and surgical nursing course. This quasi-experimental study used experimental and control groups and a pre-test / post-test design. Sopho-more (2nd year) students in a four-year program at a university of science and technology in Taiwan were convenience sampled using cluster randomization that was run under SPSS 17.0. Concept-mapping lessons were used as the intervention for the experimental group. The control group followed traditional lesson plans only. The cognitive learning outcome was measured using the neurological nursing-learning examination. Both concept-mapping and traditional lessons significantly improved post-test neurological nursing learning scores (p learning attitude with regard to the teaching material. Furthermore, a significant number in the experimental group expressed the desire to add more lessons on anatomy, physiology, and pathology. These results indicate that this intervention strategy may help change the widespread fear and refusal of nursing students with regard to neurological lessons and may facilitate interest and positively affect learning in this important subject area. Integrating the concept-mapping strategy and traditional clinical-case lessons into neurological nursing lessons holds the potential to increase post-test scores significantly

  18. Exploring Young Children's Performance on and Acceptance of an Educational Scenario-Based Digital Game for Teaching Route-Planning Strategies: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yi-Hui; Hou, Huei-Tse

    2016-01-01

    Researchers suggest that game-based learning (GBL) can be used to facilitate mathematics learning. However, empirical GBL research that targets young children is still limited. The purposes of the study is to develop a scenario-based digital game to promote children's route-planning ability, to empirically explore children's learning performance…

  19. Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

    2017-03-01

    The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

  20. Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H.; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

    2017-03-01

    The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

  1. Nearby outdoor environments and seniors physical activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Wang

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available More than 60% of older Americans have sedentary lifestyles1 1 According to DHHS (1996. and are recommended more physical activities for health benefit. Nearby outdoor environments on residential sites may impact older inhabitants׳ physical activities there (defined as walking, gardening, yard work, and other outdoor physical activities on residential sites. This study surveyed 110 assisted-living residents in Houston, Texas, regarding their previous residential sites before moving to a retirement community and physical activities there. Twelve environmental features were studied under four categories (typology, motivators, function, and safety. Based on data availability, a subset of 57 sample sites was analyzed in Geographic Information Systems. Hierarchical linear modeling was applied to estimate physical activities as a function of the environments. Higher levels of physical activity were found to be positively related with four environmental features (transitional-areas, connecting-paths, walk-ability, and less paving.

  2. Outdoor education in New Zealand: a comparative and cultural perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andkjær, Søren

    2009-01-01

      This presentation takes general view of understanding outdoor education in New Zealand.  This is seen from an outsider's perspective and is compared with "friluftsliv" in Denmark and the Nordic countries. Analysing and understanding one's culture is never easy, and the main challenge is to focus......, 1992) of friluftsliv in Denmark and outdoor education in New Zealand. Friluftsliv and outdoor education are understood as socio-cultural constructs which develop and differ in time and space. The theoretical framework is based on ethnological cultural analysis (Ehn & Lofgren, 1982, 2008) combined...... with the theory and analysis of configurations (Eichberg, 2001), using interviews with leaders and participants (Kvale, 1994) and a series of observations of practise (Spradley, 1980). The study points out central cultural characteristics in outdoor education in New Zealand according to time, space, energy...

  3. Language Learning in Outdoor Environments: Perspectives of preschool staff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Norling

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Language environment is highlighted as an important area in the early childhood education sector. The term language environment refers to language-promoting aspects of education, such as preschool staff’s use of verbal language in interacting with the children. There is a lack of research about language learning in outdoor environments; thus children’s language learning is mostly based on the indoor physical environment. The aim of this study is therefore to explore, analyse, and describe how preschool staff perceive language learning in outdoor environments. The data consists of focus-group interviews with 165 preschool staff members, conducted in three cities in Sweden. The study is meaningful, thus results contribute knowledge regarding preschool staffs’ understandings of language learning in outdoor environments and develop insights to help preschool staff stimulate children’s language learning in outdoor environments.

  4. Structures that Include a Semi-Outdoor Space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Papachristou, C.; Foteinaki, Kyriaki; Kazanci, Ongun Berk

    2016-01-01

    The thermal environment of buildings with a second "skin" and semi-outdoor space is examined in the present study. A literature review was conducted on similar structures and only a few studies were found focusing on the thermal environment. Two different building case studies were chosen...... with different building and shield geometry, different levels of insulation but same shield material; Dome of Visions (DoV) and EMBRACE. Both buildings were modelled in IDA ICE 4.6.2 simulation software in order to assess the thermal environment of the building and assess how long the semi outdoor space of each...... building can be used by the occupants. The study was based on weather data for Copenhagen. In addition to the simulations, physical measurements were performed in DoV to assess the thermal environment in the semi-outdoor space. Since existing standards are not applicable for semi-outdoor spaces...

  5. Greenhouse gas emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production addressing different land conversion scenarios in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Akhir, Nurul Izzati Mat; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Awang, Muhamad

    2017-02-01

    The environmental impacts with regard to agro-based biofuel production have been associated with the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, field GHG emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production associated with land use changes for oil palm plantation development have been evaluated. Three different sites of different land use changes prior to oil palm plantation were chosen; converted land-use (large and small-scales) and logged-over forest. Field sampling for determination of soil N-mineralisation and soil organic carbon (SOC) was undertaken at the sites according to the age of palm, i.e. 21 years (mature oil palms). The field data were incorporated into the estimation of nitrous oxide (N2O) and the resulting CO2-eq emissions as well as for estimation of carbon stock changes. Irrespective of the land conversion scenarios, the nitrous oxide emissions were found in the range of 6.47-7.78 kg N2O-N/ha resulting in 498-590 kg CO2-eq/ha. On the other hand, the conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantation has resulted in relatively higher GHG emissions (i.e. four times higher and carbon stock reduction by >50%) compared to converted land use (converted rubber plantation) for oil palm development. The conversion from previously rubber plantation into oil palm plantation would increase the carbon savings (20% in increase) thus sustaining the environmental benefits from the palm oil-based biofuel production.

  6. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro

    2015-06-30

    The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.

  7. Measurement-Based LoS/NLoS Channel Modeling for Hot-Spot Urban Scenarios in UMTS Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiajing Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A measurement campaign is introduced for modeling radio channels with either line-of-sight (LoS or non-line-of-sight (NLoS connection between user equipment (UE and NodeB (NB in an operating universal mobile telecommunications system. A space-alternating generalized expectation-maximization (SAGE algorithm is applied to estimate the delays and the complex attenuations of multipath components from the obtained channel impulse responses. Based on a novel LoS detection method of multipath parameter estimates, channels are classified into LoS and NLoS categories. Deterministic models which are named “channel maps” and fading statistical models have been constructed for LoS and NLoS, respectively. In addition, statistics of new parameters, such as the distance between the NB and the UE in LoS/NLoS scenarios, the life-distance of LoS channel, the LoS existence probability per location and per NB, the power variation at LoS to NLoS transition and vice versa, and the transition duration, are extracted. These models are applicable for designing and performance evaluation of transmission techniques or systems used by distinguishing the LoS and NLoS channels.

  8. FttC-Based Fronthaul for 5G Dense/Ultra-Dense Access Network: Performance and Costs in Realistic Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Mazzenga

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available One distinctive feature of the next 5G systems is the presence of a dense/ultra-dense wireless access network with a large number of access points (or nodes at short distances from each other. Dense/ultra-dense access networks allow for providing very high transmission capacity to terminals. However, the deployment of dense/ultra-dense networks is slowed down by the cost of the fiber-based infrastructure required to connect radio nodes to the central processing units and then to the core network. In this paper, we investigate the possibility for existing FttC access networks to provide fronthaul capabilities for dense/ultra-dense 5G wireless networks. The analysis is realistic in that it is carried out considering an actual access network scenario, i.e., the Italian FttC deployment. It is assumed that access nodes are connected to the Cabinets and to the corresponding distributors by a number of copper pairs. Different types of cities grouped in terms of population have been considered. Results focus on fronthaul transport capacity provided by the FttC network and have been expressed in terms of the available fronthaul bit rate per node and of the achievable coverage.

  9. HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew

    2017-12-01

    The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.

  10. Impacts of silicon-based grass defences across trophic levels under both current and future atmospheric CO2 scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryalls, James M W; Hartley, Susan E; Johnson, Scott N

    2017-03-01

    Silicon (Si) has important functional roles in plants, including resistance against herbivores. Environmental change, such as increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2, may alter allocation to Si defences in grasses, potentially changing the feeding behaviour and performance of herbivores, which may in turn impact on higher trophic groups. Using Si-treated and untreated grasses (Phalaris aquatica) maintained under ambient (400 ppm) and elevated (640 and 800 ppm) CO2 concentrations, we show that Si reduced feeding by crickets (Acheta domesticus), resulting in smaller body mass. This, in turn, reduced predatory behaviour by praying mantids (Tenodera sinensis), which consequently performed worse. Despite elevated CO2 decreasing Si concentrations in P. aquatica, this reduction was not large enough to affect the feeding behaviour of crickets or their predator. Our results suggest that Si-based defences in plants have adverse impacts on both primary and secondary trophic taxa, and these are not likely to decline under future climate change scenarios. © 2017 The Author(s).

  11. HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew

    2017-01-01

    The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.

  12. Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Gridded European emission data for projection years 2010, 2015 and 2020 based on the IIASA GAINS NEC scenarios. Teilbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gon, Hugo Denier van der; Visschedijk, Antoon; Brugh, Hans van den [TNO Earth, Environment and Life Sciences, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-06-15

    Projected emissions for selected scenarios for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020 were obtained from the GAINS NEC scenario reports and distributed on a high resolution over Europe using the TNO gridding tools. These emission maps are available as model input in the PAREST project to model the contribution of Europe to air quality in Germany in 2010, 2015 and 2020 (see note Rainer Stern, May 2009). The scenarios have a significant influence on absolute emission levels for the countries that were covered by IIASA GAINS. This suggests that emission changes in countries were no scenarios were available (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) or where only a projection year baseline is available (all non-EU) may be subject to significant changes as well (but these are quite far from Germany). For future projects it is recommended to make simple and transparent scenarios for these other countries, as well as for International Shipping. The change in emissions from the base year 2005 to the projection year 2010 needs to be interpreted with care. This because some methodology differences between 2005 official emission data as used in the PAREST base year 2005 emission set and GAINS 2010 data exist. It is expected that the emission reduction steps towards 2020 are more realistic.

  13. Applying human factors principles to alert design increases efficiency and reduces prescribing errors in a scenario-based simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ, Alissa L; Zillich, Alan J; Melton, Brittany L; Russell, Scott A; Chen, Siying; Spina, Jeffrey R; Weiner, Michael; Johnson, Elizabette G; Daggy, Joanne K; McManus, M Sue; Hawsey, Jason M; Puleo, Anthony G; Doebbeling, Bradley N; Saleem, Jason J

    2014-10-01

    To apply human factors engineering principles to improve alert interface design. We hypothesized that incorporating human factors principles into alerts would improve usability, reduce workload for prescribers, and reduce prescribing errors. We performed a scenario-based simulation study using a counterbalanced, crossover design with 20 Veterans Affairs prescribers to compare original versus redesigned alerts. We redesigned drug-allergy, drug-drug interaction, and drug-disease alerts based upon human factors principles. We assessed usability (learnability of redesign, efficiency, satisfaction, and usability errors), perceived workload, and prescribing errors. Although prescribers received no training on the design changes, prescribers were able to resolve redesigned alerts more efficiently (median (IQR): 56 (47) s) compared to the original alerts (85 (71) s; p=0.015). In addition, prescribers rated redesigned alerts significantly higher than original alerts across several dimensions of satisfaction. Redesigned alerts led to a modest but significant reduction in workload (p=0.042) and significantly reduced the number of prescribing errors per prescriber (median (range): 2 (1-5) compared to original alerts: 4 (1-7); p=0.024). Aspects of the redesigned alerts that likely contributed to better prescribing include design modifications that reduced usability-related errors, providing clinical data closer to the point of decision, and displaying alert text in a tabular format. Displaying alert text in a tabular format may help prescribers extract information quickly and thereby increase responsiveness to alerts. This simulation study provides evidence that applying human factors design principles to medication alerts can improve usability and prescribing outcomes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  14. Areal location of hazardous atmospheres simulation on toxic chemical release: A scenario-based case study from Ray, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatemi, Farin; Ardalan, Ali; Aguirre, Benigno; Mansouri, Nabiollah; Mohammadfam, Iraj

    2017-10-01

    Chemical accidents cause significant danger for residents living close to chemical facilities. For this reason, this study assessed the impacts of a simulated chemical accident on surrounding residents in the city of Ray, Iran. In this scenario-based case study in 2015, the Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) model was applied to simulate a toxic chemical release from a chlorine warehouse in Shourabad, Ray, Iran. The population of the area was calculated based on the latest census in Iran, 2011. The atmospheric variables included were wind speed, air temperature, and relative humidity. We also included data on pollution source such as diameter, length and volume, and condition of chemicals. The simulation was repeated for each seasonal period. The simulated threat zones were mapped using Geographical Information System. The percentage of residents sustaining injuries and death was calculated using probit. The maximum and minimum simulated threat zones by chlorine release are during summer and winter at 8.8 and 6.4 kilometers respectively. The total affected population was estimated at approximately 30,000 people. The greater percent of injuries and death was estimated to occur in the winter and autumn, compared to summer and spring, because of greater climatic instability. The number of individuals affected by chlorine release in the spring, summer, autumn and winter at 8.3, 8.8, 7.6 and 6.4 kilometers, are estimated at 22,500, 25,000, 28,100 and 27,500, respectively. Populations located in hot and warm zones of toxic chemical releases should have access to medical resources. The results showed that relevant factors impact human vulnerability, and these should be examined to mitigate the harmful consequences of chemical accidents. Establishing a multi-level Emergency Response Program is also recommended in the area under study.

  15. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Aguirre

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN. Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities.

  16. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Erik; Lopez-Iturri, Peio; Azpilicueta, Leyre; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Santesteban, Daniel; Falcone, Francisco

    2016-08-30

    The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities.

  17. Comparison of 2 resident learning tools-interactive screen-based simulated case scenarios versus problem-based learning discussions: a prospective quasi-crossover cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, Shobana; Khanna, Ashish; Argalious, Maged; Kimatian, Stephen J; Mascha, Edward J; Makarova, Natalya; Nada, Eman M; Elsharkawy, Hesham; Firoozbakhsh, Farhad; Avitsian, Rafi

    2016-02-01

    Simulation-based learning is emerging as an alternative educational tool in this era of a relative shortfall of teaching anesthesiologists. The objective of the study is to assess whether screen-based (interactive computer simulated) case scenarios are more effective than problem-based learning discussions (PBLDs) in improving test scores 4 and 8 weeks after these interventions in anesthesia residents during their first neuroanesthesia rotation. Prospective, nonblinded quasi-crossover study. Cleveland Clinic. Anesthesiology residents. Two case scenarios were delivered from the Anesoft software as screen-based sessions, and parallel scripts were developed for 2 PBLDs. Each resident underwent both types of training sessions, starting with the PBLD session, and the 2 cases were alternated each month (ie, in 1 month, the screen-based intervention used case 1 and the PBLD used case 2, and vice versa for the next month). Test scores before the rotation (baseline), immediately after the rotation (4 weeks after the start of the rotation), and 8 weeks after the start of rotation were collected on each topic from each resident. The effect of training method on improvement in test scores was assessed using a linear mixed-effects model. Compared to the departmental standard of PBLD, the simulation method did not improve either the 4- or 8-week mean test scores (P = .41 and P = .40 for training method effect on 4- and 8-week scores, respectively). Resident satisfaction with the simulation module on a 5-point Likert scale showed subjective evidence of a positive impact on resident education. Screen-based simulators were not more effective than PBLD for education during the neuroanesthesia rotation in anesthesia residency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. OUTDOOR EDUCATION AND GEOGRAPHICAL EDUCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANDREA GUARAN

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the reflection on the relationship between values and methodological principles of Outdoor Education and spatial and geographical education perspectives, especially in pre-school and primary school, which relates to the age between 3 and 10 years. Outdoor Education is an educational practice that is already rooted in the philosophical thought of the 16th and the 17th centuries, from John Locke to Jean-Jacques Rousseau, and in the pedagogical thought, in particular Friedrich Fröbel, and it has now a quite stable tradition in Northern Europe countries. In Italy, however, there are still few experiences and they usually do not have a systematic and structural modality, but rather a temporarily and experimentally outdoor organization. In the first part, this paper focuses on the reasons that justify a particular attention to educational paths that favour outdoors activities, providing also a definition of outdoor education and highlighting its values. It is also essential to understand that educational programs in open spaces, such as a forest or simply the schoolyard, surely offers the possibility to learn geographical situations. Therefore, the question that arises is how to finalize the best stimulus that the spatial location guarantees for the acquisition of knowledge, skills and abilities about space and geography.

  19. Research trends in outdoor pig production — A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun-Suk Park

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Since the industrialization of swine production in the late 1900s, swine farms in the United States, as well as in Europe, have largely become consolidated. Pig farms became larger in size but fewer in number, with 91% of market pigs being produced by large operations with 5,000 or more pigs on-site in the US, and only 3% of the total utilized agricultural land representing organic farming. Such change in the market made it difficult for small farmers to stay competitive, forcing them to find alternative ways to reduce the cost of production and increase profit using the outdoor production system. In contrast to the indoor confinement system, outdoor production system uses pasture-based units and/or deep-bedded hoop structures that promote animal welfare and environmental sustainability with a lower capital investment. In accord with the growing concern for animal and environmental welfare and food safety by the consumers, small farmers practicing an outdoor production system are seeing increased opportunities for marketing their products in the pork niche market. Unlike the general belief that the reproductive and growth performance measures of the outdoor sows and piglets are poorer in comparison with the animals reared indoors, studies showed that there was no significant difference in the performance measures, and some traits were even better in outdoor animals. Improved reproductive and production traits can increase the sustainability of outdoor farming. Present study reviewed the recent studies comparing the performance measures, meat quality and health of indoor and outdoor animals, as well as the efforts to improve the outdoor production system through changes in management such as hut types and breed of animals.

  20. Wireless Information-Theoretic Security in an Outdoor Topology with Obstacles: Theoretical Analysis and Experimental Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dagiuklas Tasos

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a Wireless Information-Theoretic Security (WITS scheme, which has been recently introduced as a robust physical layer-based security solution, especially for infrastructureless networks. An autonomic network of moving users was implemented via 802.11n nodes of an ad hoc network for an outdoor topology with obstacles. Obstructed-Line-of-Sight (OLOS and Non-Line-of-Sight (NLOS propagation scenarios were examined. Low-speed user movement was considered, so that Doppler spread could be discarded. A transmitter and a legitimate receiver exchanged information in the presence of a moving eavesdropper. Average Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR values were acquired for both the main and the wiretap channel, and the Probability of Nonzero Secrecy Capacity was calculated based on theoretical formula. Experimental results validate theoretical findings stressing the importance of user location and mobility schemes on the robustness of Wireless Information-Theoretic Security and call for further theoretical analysis.

  1. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  2. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  3. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many......) instances of a scenario. The tool is based on control flow analysis of the process calculus LySa and is applied to the Bauer, Berson, and Feiertag protocol where is reveals a previously undocumented problem, which occurs in some scenarios but not in other....

  4. Investigating the Impact on Student Learning and Outdoor Science Interest through Modular Serious Educational Games: A Design-Based Research Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folta, Elizabeth Eason

    In an effort to get children back outdoors and exploring the natural environment, a Modular Serious Educational Game (mSEG), Red Wolf Caper, was created as part of a design-based research study. Red Wolf Caper uses a combination of an augmented reality (AR) game and a serious educational game (SEG) to capture the students' interest in the natural world around them. The game is set around a mystery in which red wolves in eastern North Carolina are being poisoned. The students are asked to portray the role of a wildlife biologist, botanist, or entomologist, whose job it is to determine who is poisoning the red wolves. MSEG are a new form of SEG that is divided into components or modules. Each module has to be completed before the player can move on to the next module. A module can take on any format, but must encompass the storyline of the game and end in an assessment. The study focused on three research questions. How would students improve the Red Wolf Caper mSEG? Do mSEG affect students' understanding in environmental education concepts, specifically, collecting, evaluating, and developing an explanation for data they collected in the game and knowledge of environmental systems and biological and social implications for the reintroduction of a species? Which role within the mSEG do the students choose and what is their reasoning behind choosing that particular role? The game was tested by 81 middle school students during six sessions in June 2010. The study participants played the game and participated in design sessions. In addition, they were given a 5-question pretest/ posttest, role selection survey, and Serious Educational Game Rubric (SEGR). They were asked to develop a hypothesis and provide evidence to support their hypothesis. Finally, they were asked to write a letter to a local in judge explaining the importance of the red wolf reintroduction project. Twenty-three students were selected to participate in interviews to determine how to improve the game

  5. X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy as a tool to investigate silane-based coatings for the protection of outdoor bronze: The role of alloying elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masi, G.; Balbo, A.; Esvan, J.; Monticelli, C.; Avila, J.; Robbiola, L.; Bernardi, E.; Bignozzi, M. C.; Asensio, M. C.; Martini, C.; Chiavari, C.

    2018-03-01

    Application of a protective coating is the most widely used conservation treatment for outdoor bronzes (cast Cu-Sn-Zn-Pb-Sb alloys). However, improving coating protectiveness requires detailed knowledge of the coating/substrate chemical bonding. This is particularly the case for 3-mercapto-propyl-trimethoxy-silane (PropS-SH) applied on bronze, exhibiting a good protective behaviour in outdoor simulated conditions. The present work deals with X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) and Electron Microscopy (FEG-SEM + FIB (Focused Ion Beam)) characterization of a thin PropS-SH film on bronze. In particular, in order to better understand the influence of alloying elements on coating performance, PropS-SH was studied first on pure Cu and Sn substrates then on bronzes with increasing alloy additions: Cu8Sn as well as a quinary Cu-Sn-Zn-Pb-Sb bronze. Moreover, considering the real application of this coating on historical bronze substrates, previously artificially aged ("patinated") bronze samples were prepared and a comparison between bare and "patinated" quinary bronzes was performed. In the case of coated quinary bronze, the free surface of samples was analysed by High Resolution Photoelectron Spectroscopy using Synchrotron Radiation (HR-SRPES) at ANTARES (Synchrotron SOLEIL), which offers a higher energy and lateral resolution. By compiling complementary spectroscopic and imaging information, a deeper insight into the interactions between the protective coating and the bronze substrate was achieved.

  6. Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle

    2017-05-23

    The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

  7. Adaptive information design for outdoor augmented reality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuhöfer, Jan A; Govaers, Felix; El Mokni, Hichem; Alexander, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Augmented Reality focuses on the enrichment of the user's natural field of view by consistent integration of text, symbols and interactive three-dimensional objects in real time. Placing virtual objects directly into the user's view in a natural context empowers highly dynamic applications. On the other hand, this necessitates deliberate choice of information design and density, in particular for deployment in hazardous environments like military combat scenarios. As the amount of information needed is not foreseeable and strongly depends on the individual mission, an appropriate system must offer adequate adaptation capabilities. The paper presents a prototypical, vehicle-mountable Augmented Reality vision system, designed for enhancing situation awareness in stressful urban warfare scenarios. Tracking, as one of the most crucial challenges for outdoor Augmented Reality, is accomplished by means of a Differential-GPS approach while the type of display to attach can be modified, ranging from ocular displays to standard LCD mini-screens. The overall concept also includes envisioning of own troops (blue forces), for which a multi-sensor tracking approach has been chosen. As a main feature, the system allows switching between different information categories, focusing on friendly, hostile, unidentified or neutral data. Results of an empirical study on the superiority of an in-view navigation cue approach conclude the paper.

  8. Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radeloff, V C; Nelson, E; Plantinga, A J; Lewis, D J; Helmers, D; Lawler, J J; Withey, J C; Beaudry, F; Martinuzzi, S; Butsic, V; Lonsdorf, E; White, D; Polasky, S

    2012-04-01

    Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate

  9. Injury and illness in college outdoor education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudio, Flavio G; Greenwald, Peter W; Holton, Mark

    2010-12-01

    Many colleges offer outdoor education courses such as rock climbing, kayaking, and mountain biking. Since these sports may be perceived as dangerous, we describe the prevalence of injuries and illnesses in a large, university-based outdoor education program. We also compare composite incident rates from this outdoor program to those of traditional college sports. Cohort of college students participating in either Cornell Outdoor Education (COE) or National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) sports and comparison of incident rates. COE data were prospectively collected in the field; and NCAA data were prospectively collected through the Association's Injury Surveillance System. By definition, a COE injury or illness required follow-up care, prescription medication, or limited course participation. Similarly, a NCAA injury limited further practice or play. Incident rates were calculated as injuries and illnesses per 1000 participant-days (COE) or injuries per 1000 athlete-exposures (NCAA). Included COE courses during 2002-2007 totaled 74 005 participant-days. There were 111 injuries and illnesses, rate = 1.50/1000 participant-days (95% CI 1.24-1.81). The NCAA reported 32 646 899 athlete-exposures during 1988-2004 and 181 476 injuries, rate = 5.56/1000 athlete-exposures (95% CI 5.53-5.58). Compared to COE, the relative risk of injury in NCAA sports was 3.7 (95% CI 3.1-4.5) overall and 3.3 (95% CI 2.8-4.0) after excluding the high-contact sports of football, ice hockey, and wrestling. For COE, mountain biking had the highest incident rate (7.5/1000), which was significantly lower than game injury rates in NCAA football and soccer. The most common injuries for both NCAA and COE were soft-tissue injuries such as sprains and strains. Outdoor education at this university-sponsored program was at least as safe as traditional college sports. Overall, college students were less likely to be injured while participating in COE courses than while participating in NCAA sports

  10. Calculation of lifetime lung cancer risks associated with radon exposure, based on various models and exposure scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Nezahat; Muirhead, Colin R; Bochicchio, Francesco; Haylock, Richard G E

    2015-09-01

    The risk of lung cancer mortality up to 75 years of age due to radon exposure has been estimated for both male and female continuing, ex- and never-smokers, based on various radon risk models and exposure scenarios. We used risk models derived from (i) the BEIR VI analysis of cohorts of radon-exposed miners, (ii) cohort and nested case-control analyses of a European cohort of uranium miners and (iii) the joint analysis of European residential radon case-control studies. Estimates of the lifetime lung cancer risk due to radon varied between these models by just over a factor of 2 and risk estimates based on models from analyses of European uranium miners exposed at comparatively low rates and of people exposed to radon in homes were broadly compatible. For a given smoking category, there was not much difference in lifetime lung cancer risk between males and females. The estimated lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer for exposure to a concentration of 200 Bq m(-3) was in the range 2.98-6.55% for male continuing smokers and 0.19-0.42% for male never-smokers, depending on the model used and assuming a multiplicative relationship for the joint effect of radon and smoking. Stopping smoking at age 50 years decreases the lifetime risk due to radon by around a half relative to continuing smoking, but the risk for ex-smokers remains about a factor of 5-7 higher than that for never-smokers. Under a sub-multiplicative model for the joint effect of radon and smoking, the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer was still estimated to be substantially higher for continuing smokers than for never smokers. Radon mitigation-used to reduce radon concentrations at homes-can also have a substantial impact on lung cancer risk, even for persons in their 50 s; for each of continuing smokers, ex-smokers and never-smokers, radon mitigation at age 50 would lower the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer by about one-third. To maximise risk reductions, smokers in high

  11. RODOS-based simulation of potential accident scenarios for emergency response management in the vicinity of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walter, H.; Gering, F.; Arnold, K.; Gerich, B.; Heinrich, G.; Welte, U.

    2016-09-15

    In the wake of the Fukushima disaster in March 2011, the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS) started to investigate the potential radiological consequences of a ''Fukushima-like'' accident in a German nuclear power plant and conducted appropriate simulations in 2012. Between the end of 2012 and the end of 2013, the first study was followed by a much more detailed and comprehensive investigation comprising more than 5000 case studies for three nuclear power plant (NPP) sites in Germany. Based on these results the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK) released a new recommendation in March 2014 including an expansion of the current emergency planning zones for nuclear power plants in Germany. The key results of this study with respect to the maximum dimensions of the affected areas where dose criteria may be exceeded are described below. The following results are based on the largest nuclear release scenario ''FKA'' (INES scale 7): - Threshold levels for deterministic effects and high doses (effective doses higher than 1000 mSv) can be reached or exceeded within a distance of about 3 km on average. - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Evacuation'' can be reached or exceeded within a distance of up to 9 to 18 km (adults) and/or up to 14 to 24 km (infants) on average (the indicated interval describes the minimum and maximum levels of the median value at all three NPP sites). - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Sheltering'' can be reached or exceeded within a distance of up to 62 to 80 km (adults) and/or up to 91 to 114 km (infants) on average. - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Stable iodine prophylaxis'' can be exceeded within a distance of up to 24 to 34 km (adults) and/or up to 148 to 161 km (infants and pregnant women) on average.

  12. Multi-board concept - a scenario based approach for supporting product quality and life cycle oriented design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robotham, Antony John; Hertzum, Morten

    2000-01-01

    This paper will describe the multi-board concept, which is a working approach for supporting life cycle oriented design and product quality. Aspects of this concept include construction of a common working environment where multiple display boards depict scenarios of the product life cycle, creat...

  13. Future trends in environmental impact of eucalyptus-based Kraft pulp industry in Thailand: a scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jawjit, W.; Kroeze, C.; Soontaranun, W.; Hordijk, L.

    2008-01-01

    This study explores possible future trends in the environmental impact of the Kraft pulp industry in Thailand between 2000 and 2020. Scenarios were developed to analyze the effect of different options to reduce the future environmental impact, and the costs associated with the implementation of

  14. A new scenario based approach for designing driver support systems applied to the design of a lane change support system.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tideman, Martijn; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Arem, Bart

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a new product design method that gives users a proactive role in the design process. Within a dedicated design environment, users are allowed to create their own designs and immediately test these in a wide variety of scenarios. By letting users realistically interact with their

  15. Soil retention of hexavalent chromium released from construction and demolition waste in a road-base-application scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butera, Stefania; Trapp, Stefan; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2015-01-01

    depth. However, in rigid climates and with high water infiltration through the road pavement, the reduction reaction could be so slow that Cr(VI) might migrate as deep as 200 cm under the road. The reaction parameters and the model can form the basis for systematically assessing under which scenarios Cr...

  16. Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

    2016-01-01

    Incorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation...

  17. Pathways to outdoor recreation, physical activity, and delinquency among urban Latino adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, Caterina G; Stodolska, Monika; Yahner, Jennifer; Shinew, Kimberly

    2013-02-01

    Little is known about how physical activity and various high-risk behaviors of youth are associated, particularly in disadvantaged, minority neighborhoods. We examine whether fear, victimization, and perceived incivilities are associated with physical activity and outdoor recreation among Latino youth and whether involvement in physical activity is associated with delinquency. Path models were assessed using data collected from school-based surveys of 390 youth across 3 schools in Chicago, Illinois. Fear was associated with low levels of physical activity and outdoor recreation, while incivilities were associated with reduced levels of outdoor recreation but not physical activity. Outdoor recreation exhibited a positive association with delinquency. Some effects differed by gender. The findings reinforce considering different interventions to encourage physical activity and outdoor recreation for girls versus boys, and thinking comprehensively about lowering the risk for delinquency when encouraging outdoor recreation.

  18. Ethoprophos fate on soil-water interface and effects on non-target terrestrial and aquatic biota under Mediterranean crop-based scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitão, Sara; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Van den Brink, Paul J; Ribeiro, Rui; José Cerejeira, M; Sousa, José Paulo

    2014-05-01

    The present study aimed to assess the environmental fate of the insecticide and nematicide ethoprophos in the soil-water interface following the pesticide application in simulated maize and potato crops under Mediterranean agricultural conditions, particularly of irrigation. Focus was given to the soil-water transfer pathways (leaching and runoff), to the pesticide transport in soil between pesticide application (crop row) and non-application areas (between crop rows), as well as to toxic effects of the various matrices on terrestrial and aquatic biota. A semi-field methodology mimicking a "worst-case" ethoprophos application (twice the recommended dosage for maize and potato crops: 100% concentration v/v) in agricultural field situations was used, in order to mimic a possible misuse by the farmer under realistic conditions. A rainfall was simulated under a slope of 20° for both crop-based scenarios. Soil and water samples were collected for the analysis of pesticide residues. Ecotoxicity of soil and aquatic samples was assessed by performing lethal and sublethal bioassays with organisms from different trophic levels: the collembolan Folsomia candida, the earthworm Eisenia andrei and the cladoceran Daphnia magna. Although the majority of ethoprophos sorbed to the soil application area, pesticide concentrations were detected in all water matrices illustrating pesticide transfer pathways of water contamination between environmental compartments. Leaching to groundwater proved to be an important transfer pathway of ethoprophos under both crop-based scenarios, as it resulted in high pesticide concentration in leachates from Maize (130µgL(-1)) and Potato (630µgL(-1)) crop scenarios, respectively. Ethoprophos application at the Potato crop scenario caused more toxic effects on terrestrial and aquatic biota than at the Maize scenario at the recommended dosage and lower concentrations. In both crop-based scenarios, ethoprophos moved with the irrigation water flow to the

  19. Fear of moving outdoors and development of outdoor walking difficulty in older people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rantakokko, Merja; Mänty, Minna; Iwarsson, Susanne

    2009-01-01

    To study which individual characteristics and environmental factors correlate with fear of moving outdoors and whether fear of moving outdoors predicts development of mobility limitation.......To study which individual characteristics and environmental factors correlate with fear of moving outdoors and whether fear of moving outdoors predicts development of mobility limitation....

  20. Universal Design and Outdoor Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harte, Helene Arbouet

    2013-01-01

    Engagement in the natural environment provides authentic and concrete opportunities for children to enhance development in all domains (Bailie, 2010). As children play and explore in nature they build gross motor development moving through the outdoors. Learning outside and in nature not only allows for learning across subject areas and…

  1. Multilayer Controller for Outdoor Vehicle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reske-Nielsen, Anders; Mejnertsen, Asbjørn; Andersen, Nils Axel

    2006-01-01

    A full software and hardware solution has been designed, implemented and tested for control of a small agricultural automatic tractor. The objective was to realise a user-friendly, multi-layer controller architecture for an outdoor platform. The collaborative research work was done as a part...

  2. Expanding & strengthening outdoor recreation research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter S. Hopkins

    1971-01-01

    Though the Forest Service has pioneered in outdoor recreation research, the funding for recreation research has been inadequate. Specific needs for research are outlined. There is a need to define recreation and recreation research in terms that busy legislators can understand.

  3. Outdoor Learning and Sustainability Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Margaret; Dawson, Richard

    2013-01-01

    A shared conference presentation describes two ways of bringing education for sustainable development into education. The first part concentrated on putting science into outdoor learning backed up by a series of mind-mapping activities. The second was about linking schools with their surrounding communities to develop ways of working together. An…

  4. Outdoor Recreation Activities at Cispus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cispus Environmental Center, Randle, WA.

    Most of the activities in this booklet have been developed around skills related to the outdoors and, in particular, to the logging industry and forest fire fighting. The activities attempt to develop muscles, coordination skills, and teamwork. They also give the students (junior high school or high school) and staff the opportunity to do…

  5. Outdoor Play: Combating Sedentary Lifestyles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thigpen, Betsy

    2007-01-01

    Increasingly sedentary lifestyles are contributing to overweight and other health concerns as children spend less and less time outside engaged in active play. Outdoor play provides important opportunities to explore the natural world, interact with peers, engage in vigorous physical activity, and learn about our environment. However, outdoor…

  6. Positive Psychology and Outdoor Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Dene S.; Davis-Berman, Jennifer

    2005-01-01

    A relatively new movement in psychology, positive psychology, has many implications for the field of outdoor education. Positive psychology has the goal of fostering excellence through the understanding and enhancement of factors that lead to growth. It embraces the view that growth occurs when positive factors are present, as opposed to the…

  7. Outdoor Experiential Education: Its Power and Pitfalls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewert, Alan

    1985-01-01

    Traces origin of outdoor education to Aristotle. Expresses concern over cutbacks and "back to basics" movements that are eliminating outdoor programs. Proposes outdoor educators examine program objectives, staff, student needs, focus, and techniques to improve physiological and psychological aspects and avoid instructor traps to become stronger,…

  8. Outdoor Acoustics as a General Discipline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Karsten Bo

    1999-01-01

    A tutorial paper exploring the characteristics of sound outdoors. Outdoor acoustics is contrasted to room acoustics. A number of important aspects of outdoor acoustics are exemplified and theoretical approaches are outlined. These are influence of ground impedance, influence of weather, screening...

  9. Outdoor Leadership Skills: A Program Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shooter, Wynn; Sibthorp, Jim; Paisley, Karen

    2009-01-01

    Successful hiring, training, and pairing or grouping of staff requires administrators to consider the relationship between their programs' goals and the specific outdoor leadership skills of individual leaders. Authors have divided outdoor leadership skills into a three-category structure, and models of outdoor leadership have focused on skills…

  10. Benchmarking Outdoor Expeditionary Program Risk Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerts-Brandsma, Lisa; Furman, Nate; Sibthorp, Jim

    2017-01-01

    In 2003, the University of Utah and the National Outdoor Leadership School (NOLS) completed a study that developed a risk management taxonomy in the outdoor adventure industry and assessed how different outdoor expeditionary programs (OEPs) managed risk (Szolosi, Sibthorp, Paisley, & Gookin, 2003). By unifying the language around risk, the…

  11. A Phenomenology of Outdoor Education Leader Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Stephanie C.; Lauzon, Lara L.; Meldrum, John T.

    2016-01-01

    Limited qualitative research exists on the experiences of outdoor education leaders. The purpose of this phenomenological study was to explore the job-related experiences of outdoor education leaders within and outside the workplace. Five participants who had experience as outdoor education leaders completed in-depth, one-on-one interviews about…

  12. 77 FR 33597 - Great Outdoors Month, 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-07

    ... natural beauty. To uphold this tradition, I was proud to launch the America's Great Outdoors Initiative...! initiative is encouraging children and families to explore the outdoors and engage in outdoor recreation as... us the opportunity to get active, explore, and strengthen our bonds with family and friends. This...

  13. A Program for Outdoor Recreation Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC.

    The categorical sections of the proposed program for outdoor recreation research are (1) principal findings and recommendations of the National Academy of Sciences, (2) the social and behavioral dimensions of outdoor recreation, (3) the economics of outdoor recreation, and (4) the operation of recreation service systems. Among the specific topics…

  14. Outdoor Recreation Action: Federal, State, Local, Private.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyle, George M., Ed.

    This booklet reports on outdoor recreation actions taken at the federal, state, local, and private levels. The Land and Water Conservation Fund and the financing of outdoor recreation on all levels are discussed. New agencies, personnel, reorganizations, resolutions, and recommendations for the organization and administration of outdoor recreation…

  15. Outdoor recreation in forest policy and legislation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mann, Carsten; Pouta, Eija; Gentin, Sandra

    2010-01-01

    The benefists of outdoor recreation and the need for recreation inventories and monitoring are described in various policy and legislation documents at the European level. The objective of this paper is to analyse how these recreational aspects are reflected at the national level in core forest...... indicates that a consistent forest recreation monitoring system, linked to sustainable forest management, as describes for example in the Helsinki process, should be better transferred into national policuy and legislation. Compareable data across Europe could then provide a sound base for making decisions...

  16. A renewable energy scenario for Aalborg Municipality based on low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Poul Alberg; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Möller, Bernd

    2010-01-01

    Aalborg Municipality, Denmark, wishes to investigate the possibilities of becoming independent of fossil fuels. This article describes a scenario for supplying Aalborg Municipality’s energy needs through a combination of low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass. Of particular focus...... in the scenario is how low-temperature geothermal heat may be utilised in district heating (DH) systems. The analyses show that it is possible to cover Aalborg Municipality’s energy needs through the use of locally available sources in combination with significant electricity savings, heat savings, reductions...... in industrial fuel use and savings and fuel-substitutions in the transport sector. With biomass resources being finite, the two marginal energy resources in Aalborg are geothermal heat and wind power. If geothermal heat is utilised more, wind power may be limited and vice versa. The system still relies...

  17. Do you agree with the doctor's decision to continue treatment?: A scenario-based study of hospital nurses in Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Francesca Ingravallo; Sara Sandroni; Laura D'Addio; Guido Miccinesi

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: A lack of social consensus on the duty to comply with a patient's request to forgo treatment was reported in Italy, but little is known about the nurses' attitudes regarding this issue. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Questionnaire including two clinical scenarios regarding doctor's decision to not comply with a competent patient's request to forgo treatment was administered to all nurses (n = 487) of an Italian medium-sized hospital. RESULTS: Eighty-five percent of nurses completed the ...

  18. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  19. Near work, outdoor activity, and their association with refractive error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zhong; Vasudevan, Balamurali; Jhanji, Vishal; Mao, Guang Yun; Gao, Tie Ying; Wang, Feng Hua; Rong, Shi Song; Ciuffreda, Kenneth J; Liang, Yuan Bo

    2014-04-01

    To assess the relationship between near work, outdoor activity, and refractive error in schoolchildren in Beijing. The Beijing Myopia Progression Study is a hospital-based myopia study, in which 386 students from primary (aged 6 to 12 years) and secondary (aged 13 to 17 years) schools in the inner city of Beijing were enrolled. Cycloplegic refraction and a detailed questionnaire probing near, intermediate, and distance visual activities were completed. Three hundred seventy (95.9%) of 386 students with complete cycloplegic autorefraction and myopia questionnaire data were enrolled in this study. Children with more near work time did not exhibit a significantly more myopic refraction in both the primary and secondary school levels after adjusting for the children's gender, outdoor activity time, and average parental refractive error. A significant association between outdoor activity time (in hours per day) and the children's spherical equivalent (in diopters) was found in the primary school students (β = 0.27, p = 0.03) but not in the secondary school students (β = 0.04, p = 0.70) after adjusting for similar confounders. The time spent on outdoor sports and outdoor leisure in the primary school students was also significantly associated with the children's spherical equivalent (β = 0.46, p = 0.04 and β = 0.31, p = 0.02, respectively). Primary school students with more time outdoors exhibited relatively less myopic refraction than their peers (ptrend = 0.0003), but this relation was not demonstrated in the secondary school children (ptrend = 0.53) after adjusting for similar confounders. Higher levels of outdoor activity were associated with less myopic refraction in primary school students in the inner city of Beijing. Near work activity was not found to be associated with refraction at either school level.

  20. Modeling emission rates and exposures from outdoor cooking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Rufus; Princevac, Marko; Weltman, Robert; Ghasemian, Masoud; Arora, Narendra K.; Bond, Tami

    2017-09-01

    Approximately 3 billion individuals rely on solid fuels for cooking globally. For a large portion of these - an estimated 533 million - cooking is outdoors, where emissions from cookstoves pose a health risk to both cooks and other household and village members. Models that estimate emissions rates from stoves in indoor environments that would meet WHO air quality guidelines (AQG), explicitly don't account for outdoor cooking. The objectives of this paper are to link health based exposure guidelines with emissions from outdoor cookstoves, using a Monte Carlo simulation of cooking times from Haryana India coupled with inverse Gaussian dispersion models. Mean emission rates for outdoor cooking that would result in incremental increases in personal exposure equivalent to the WHO AQG during a 24-h period were 126 ± 13 mg/min for cooking while squatting and 99 ± 10 mg/min while standing. Emission rates modeled for outdoor cooking are substantially higher than emission rates for indoor cooking to meet AQG, because the models estimate impact of emissions on personal exposure concentrations rather than microenvironment concentrations, and because the smoke disperses more readily outdoors compared to indoor environments. As a result, many more stoves including the best performing solid-fuel biomass stoves would meet AQG when cooking outdoors, but may also result in substantial localized neighborhood pollution depending on housing density. Inclusion of the neighborhood impact of pollution should be addressed more formally both in guidelines on emissions rates from stoves that would be protective of health, and also in wider health impact evaluation efforts and burden of disease estimates. Emissions guidelines should better represent the different contexts in which stoves are being used, especially because in these contexts the best performing solid fuel stoves have the potential to provide significant benefits.

  1. Hydropower Generation Vulnerability in the Yangtze River in China under Climate Change Scenarios: Analysis Based on the WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming caused by human activities exacerbates the water cycle, changes precipitation features, such as precipitation amount, intensity and time, and raises uncertainties in water resources. This work uses run-off data obtained using climate change models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs and selects the Yangtze River Basin as the research boundary to evaluate and analyse the vulnerability of hydropower generation in 2016–2050 on the basis of the water evaluation and planning model. Results show that the amount of rainfall during 2016–2050 in the Yangtze River Basin is estimated to increase with fluctuations in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, hydropower stations exhibit large fluctuations in generating capacity, which present the trend of an increase after a decrease; in the RCP8.5 scenario, the generating capacity of hydropower stations in the Yangtze River Basin presents a steady increase. Over 50% of the generating capacity in the Yangtze River Basin is produced from the Three Gorges Dam and 10 other hydropower stations. Over 90% is generated in eight river basins, including the Jinsha, Ya-lung and Min Rivers. Therefore, climate change may accelerate changes in the Yangtze River Basin and further lead to vulnerability of hydropower generation.

  2. A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District, Shanghai, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Mingwei, E-mail: wang_mingwei@yahoo.com.cn [Shanghai Key Laboratory of Urbanisation and Ecological Restoration, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062 (China); Che Yue, E-mail: yche@des.ecnu.edu.cn [Shanghai Key Laboratory of Urbanisation and Ecological Restoration, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062 (China); Yang Kai [Shanghai Key Laboratory of Urbanisation and Ecological Restoration, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062 (China); Wang Min; Xiong Lijun; Huang Yuchi [Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai 200233 (China)

    2011-11-15

    To achieve a goal of reducing the emission intensity of carbon dioxide in 2020 by 40-45% relative to 2005 in China, the framework for a low-carbon scenario was developed on a small scale in Minhang District, Shanghai. The STIRPAT model was employed to reveal the factors that contribute to CO{sub 2} emissions in this district: the increase of population, affluence and urbanisation level would increase CO{sub 2} emissions, but energy intensity would decrease. Stakeholder involvement was another key component of the framework, and in this case, several rounds of negotiation and feedback resulted in fifteen final scenarios with the estimations of CO{sub 2} emissions in 2015. For the low-carbon development plan of Minhang District, the model considered the actual capacity and development potential of this district, the best scenario combining with the high rates of affluence growing and energy intensity reducing as well as the middle rates of population growth and urbanisation level. The final CO{sub 2} emissions of this scenario were 66.1 Mt in 2015. Based on these results, strategic suggestions have been proposed to reduce future energy intensity in Minhang District through industrial and energy resource structure reformation, lifestyle change and the transportation system improvement in this district. - Highlights: > We employ the STIRPAT model to find out the main driving forces of carbon dioxide emissions. > Population, affluence, urbanisation level showed the positive effects on CO{sub 2} emissions. > We combined STIRPAT modelling with a participatory planning process.

  3. Developing and Assessing Alternative Land-Use Scenarios from the MOLAND Model: A Scenario-Based Impact Analysis Approach for the Evaluation of Rapid Rail Provisions and Urban Development in the Greater Dublin Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eda Ustaoglu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, environmental sustainability implications of planned rail infrastructure investments on the urban form and development in the Greater Dublin Region (GDR have been analysed incorporating the scenario analysis approach. Various scenarios are developed using the MOLAND Model applications including: A baseline scenario incorporating a continuation of the present dispersed pattern of urban development and an alternative scenario with rail-oriented corridor development, under varying conditions of economic growth. An alternative scenario was also developed for the recessionary development case considering the prolonged recession in the GDR. Further explorations incorporating a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA approach are developed to evaluate the sustainability implications of different land development scenarios in the Dublin Region. This is assisted by focussing on the impacts of rail investments on urban form and development as raised in the international comparative literature. The findings from the CBA assessment positively indicate that containment policies-as represented by the public transport oriented development indicate benefits over the dispersed development case by reducing the negative consequences of sprawl type of developments. In contrast, dispersed development in the baseline scenario indicates costs of continuation of such development patterns exceed the benefits in the long term. This study will contribute to policy support evaluation measures relating to the integration of scenario analysis tool with the CBA approach in assisting the evaluation of new transport infrastructure proposals.

  4. Combining exploratory scenarios and participatory backcasting: using an agent-based model in participatory policy design for a multi-functional landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Berkel, Derek B; Verburg, Peter H

    While the merits of local participatory policy design are widely recognised, limited use is made of model-based scenario results to inform such stakeholder involvement. In this paper we present the findings of a study using an agent based model to help stakeholders consider, discuss and incorporate spatial and temporal processes in a backcasting exercise for rural development. The study is carried out in the Dutch region called the Achterhoek. Region-specific scenarios were constructed based on interviews with local experts. The scenarios are simulated in an agent based model incorporating rural residents and farmer characteristics, the environment and different policy interventions for realistic projection of landscape evolution. Results of the model simulations were presented to stakeholders representing different rural sectors at a workshop. The results indicate that illustration of the spatial configuration of landscape changes is appreciated by stakeholders. Testing stakeholders' solutions by way of model simulations revealed that the effectiveness of local interventions is strongly related to exogenous processes such as market competition and endogenous processes like local willingness to engage in multifunctional activities. The integration of multi-agent modelling and participatory backcasting is effective as it offers a possibility to initiate discussion between experts and stakeholders bringing together different expertise.

  5. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huttenlau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

  6. Trends in land and water available for outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd C. Irland; Thomas Rumpf

    1980-01-01

    A data base for assessing the availability of land for outdoor recreation does not exist. Information on related issues such as vandalism, easements, and land posting is scanty. Construction of a data base for assessing land availability should be a high priority for USFS and HCRS, and for SCORP's and the RPA and RCA assessments.

  7. Using Comprehensive Science-based Disaster Scenarios to Support Seismic Safety Policy: A Case Study in Los Angeles, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, L.

    2014-12-01

    In 2014, the USGS entered a technical assistance agreement with the City of Los Angeles to apply the results of the 2008 ShakeOut Scenario of a M7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault to develop a comprehensive plan to increase the seismic resilience of the City. The results of this project are to be submitted to the Mayor of Los Angeles at the Great ShakeOut on October 16, 2014. The ShakeOut scenario detailed how the expected cascade of failures in a big earthquake could lead to significant delays in disaster recovery that could create financial losses that greatly exceed the direct losses in the event. The goal of the seismic resilience plan is to: protect the lives of residents during earthquakes improve the capacity of the City to respond to the earthquake prepare the City to recover quickly after the earthquake so as to protect the economy of the City and all of southern California To accomplish these goals, the project addresses three areas of seismic vulnerability that were identified in the original ShakeOut Scenario: Pre-1980 buildings that present an unacceptable risk to the lives of residents, including "non-ductile reinforced concrete," and "soft-first-story" buildings Water system infrastructure (including impact on firefighting capability) Communications infrastructure The critical science needed to support policy decisions is to understand the probable consequences to the regional long-term economy caused by decisions to undertake (or not) different levels of mitigation. The arguments against mitigation are the immediate financial costs, so a better understanding of the eventual benefit is required. However, the direct savings rarely justify the mitigation costs, so the arguments in favor of mitigation are driven by the potential for cascading failures and the potential to trigger the type of long term reduction in population and economic activity that has occurred in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina.

  8. The Potential of Humor as a Trigger for Emotional Engagement in Outdoor Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoad, Colin; Deed, Craig; Lugg, Alison

    2013-01-01

    This article examines the relevance of humor to student engagement in outdoor education. A sociocultural framework is applied to this examination, based on a view of learning as constructed, cognitive, embodied, and affective. A set of affordances of outdoor education as a contextually situated learning activity is identified along with related…

  9. The Hidden Turmoil: Females Achieving Longevity in the Outdoor Learning Profession

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Michelle; Gray, Tonia

    2013-01-01

    Being a woman in the outdoor learning profession can bring distinctive challenges and roadblocks. Even more difficult is sustaining a life-long career, flourishing into a woman's 50s or 60s. Based on this premise, career longevity seems elusive for some women who aspire to work in the outdoors. This paper analyses the autobiographies of three…

  10. The Great Outdoors: Comparing Leader Development Programs at the U.S. Naval Academy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huey, Wesley S.; Smith, David G.; Thomas, Joseph J.; Carlson, Charles R.

    2014-01-01

    This study compares outdoor adventure-based leader development programs with a traditional non-outdoor program to test predictions about differential effects on leader development outcomes. Participants were drawn from the population of U.S. Naval Academy midshipmen involved in experiential leader development programs as a component of their…

  11. Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Scenarios in a Population-Based Setting: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis in Ontario, Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin Ten Haaf

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST results indicate that computed tomography (CT lung cancer screening for current and former smokers with three annual screens can be cost-effective in a trial setting. However, the cost-effectiveness in a population-based setting with >3 screening rounds is uncertain. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the effects of screening eligibility criteria.This study used microsimulation modeling informed by various data sources, including the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP, Ontario Cancer Registry, smoking behavior surveys, and the NLST. Persons, born between 1940 and 1969, were examined from a third-party health care payer perspective across a lifetime horizon. Starting in 2015, 576 CT screening scenarios were examined, varying by age to start and end screening, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening interval. Among the examined outcome measures were lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, percentage ever screened, costs (in 2015 Canadian dollars, and overdiagnosis. The results of the base-case analysis indicated that annual screening was more cost-effective than biennial screening. Scenarios with eligibility criteria that required as few as 20 pack-years were dominated by scenarios that required higher numbers of accumulated pack-years. In general, scenarios that applied stringent smoking eligibility criteria (i.e., requiring higher levels of accumulated smoking exposure were more cost-effective than scenarios with less stringent smoking eligibility criteria, with modest differences in life-years gained. Annual screening between ages 55-75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,136 Canadian dollars ($33,825 in May 1, 2015, United States dollars per life-year gained

  12. Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Scenarios in a Population-Based Setting: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis in Ontario, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ten Haaf, Kevin; Tammemägi, Martin C; Bondy, Susan J; van der Aalst, Carlijn M; Gu, Sumei; McGregor, S Elizabeth; Nicholas, Garth; de Koning, Harry J; Paszat, Lawrence F

    2017-02-01

    The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) results indicate that computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening for current and former smokers with three annual screens can be cost-effective in a trial setting. However, the cost-effectiveness in a population-based setting with >3 screening rounds is uncertain. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the effects of screening eligibility criteria. This study used microsimulation modeling informed by various data sources, including the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP), Ontario Cancer Registry, smoking behavior surveys, and the NLST. Persons, born between 1940 and 1969, were examined from a third-party health care payer perspective across a lifetime horizon. Starting in 2015, 576 CT screening scenarios were examined, varying by age to start and end screening, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening interval. Among the examined outcome measures were lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, percentage ever screened, costs (in 2015 Canadian dollars), and overdiagnosis. The results of the base-case analysis indicated that annual screening was more cost-effective than biennial screening. Scenarios with eligibility criteria that required as few as 20 pack-years were dominated by scenarios that required higher numbers of accumulated pack-years. In general, scenarios that applied stringent smoking eligibility criteria (i.e., requiring higher levels of accumulated smoking exposure) were more cost-effective than scenarios with less stringent smoking eligibility criteria, with modest differences in life-years gained. Annual screening between ages 55-75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,136 Canadian dollars ($33,825 in May 1, 2015, United States dollars) per life-year gained (compared to

  13. Wheat 2012 outdoor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brufau Segues, Eduard; Vos, J.; Evers, J.B.; Anten, Niels

    2013-01-01

    This dataset contains the underlying data for the MSc thesis: Effects of population density on tillering in wheat and barley. Tillering is the formation of lateral shoots from the base of the stem which is produced specially in grasses and cereals. It is an important property in crops (cereals and

  14. Tsunami Hazard in La Réunion Island (SW Indian Ocean): Scenario-Based Numerical Modelling on Vulnerable Coastal Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allgeyer, S.; Quentel, É.; Hébert, H.; Gailler, A.; Loevenbruck, A.

    2017-08-01

    Several major tsunamis have affected the southwest Indian Ocean area since the 2004 Sumatra event, and some of them (2005, 2006, 2007 and 2010) have hit La Réunion Island in the southwest Indian Ocean. However, tsunami hazard is not well defined for La Réunion Island where vulnerable coastlines can be exposed. This study offers a first tsunami hazard assesment for La Réunion Island. We first review the historical tsunami observations made on the coastlines, where high tsunami waves (2-3 m) have been reported on the western coast, especially during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Numerical models of historical scenarios yield results consistent with available observations on the coastal sites (the harbours of La Pointe des Galets and Saint-Paul). The 1833 Pagai earthquake and tsunami can be considered as the worst-case historical scenario for this area. In a second step, we assess the tsunami exposure by covering the major subduction zones with syntethic events of constant magnitude (8.7, 9.0 and 9.3). The aggregation of magnitude 8.7 scenarios all generate strong currents in the harbours (3-7 m s^{-1}) and about 2 m of tsunami maximum height without significant inundation. The analysis of the magnitude 9.0 events confirms that the main commercial harbour (Port Est) is more vulnerable than Port Ouest and that flooding in Saint-Paul is limited to the beach area and the river mouth. Finally, the magnitude 9.3 scenarios show limited inundations close to the beach and in the riverbed in Saint-Paul. More generally, the results confirm that for La Runion, the Sumatra subduction zone is the most threatening non-local source area for tsunami generation. This study also shows that far-field coastal sites should be prepared for tsunami hazard and that further work is needed to improve operational warning procedures. Forecast methods should be developed to provide tools to enable the authorities to anticipate the local effects of tsunamis and to evacuate the harbours in

  15. Outdoor sports and skin cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moehrle, Matthias

    2008-01-01

    Ultraviolet radiation is estimated to be one of the most important risk factors for nonmelanoma and melanoma skin cancers. Athletes practicing outdoor sports receive considerable UV doses because of training and competition schedules with high sun exposure, and in alpine sports, by altitude-related increase of UV radiation and reflection from snow- and ice-covered surfaces. Extreme UV exposure in outdoor sports such as skiing, mountaineering, cycling, or triathlon has been documented in a series of dosimetric studies. Sweating because of physical exercise may contribute to UV-related skin damage as it increases the individual photosensitivity of the skin, facilitating the risk of sunburns. Large epidemiological studies showed that recreational activities such as sun exposure on the beach or during water sports were associated with an increased risk of basal cell carcinoma, whereas skiing has been shown to be at increased risk for squamous cell carcinoma. Risk factors of cutaneous melanoma such as the number of melanocytic nevi and solar lentigines have been found to be more frequent in subjects practicing endurance outdoor sports. An increased risk for cutaneous melanoma may be assumed for these athletes. In addition to the important sun exposure, exercise-induced immunosuppression may increase the risk for nonmelanoma skin cancer and cutaneous melanoma in athletes. Frequently, athletes seem to know little about the risk of sun exposure. Protective means such as avoiding training and competition with considerable sun exposure, choosing adequate clothing, and applying water-resistant sunscreen still need to be propagated in the community of outdoor sportsmen.

  16. Do you agree with the doctor's decision to continue treatment?: A scenario-based study of hospital nurses in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Ingravallo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: A lack of social consensus on the duty to comply with a patient's request to forgo treatment was reported in Italy, but little is known about the nurses' attitudes regarding this issue. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Questionnaire including two clinical scenarios regarding doctor's decision to not comply with a competent patient's request to forgo treatment was administered to all nurses (n = 487 of an Italian medium-sized hospital. RESULTS: Eighty-five percent of nurses completed the study. Although 83% of participants supported a general right to self-determination, around 40% of them agreed with the doctor's decision in both scenarios. The multivariate analyses adjusted for gender, age, length of professional experience, and care setting showed that the agreement with the doctor's decision was significantly associated with nurses' personal background beliefs about self-determination and quality of life. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Many nurses have difficulty in accepting a patient's request to forgo treatment. Increasing ethical reflection and discussion at both educational and professional level, and introducing ethical consultation services would be essential to develop a consistent approach to end-of-life decisions in Italian hospitals.

  17. Evaluation of resident evacuations in urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters based on scenario simulation: Daoli district (Harbin, China) as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Peng; Zhang, Jiquan; Zhang, Lifeng; Sun, Yingyue

    2014-09-26

    With the acceleration of urbanization, waterlogging has become an increasingly serious issue. Road waterlogging has a great influence on residents' travel and traffic safety. Thus, evaluation of residents' travel difficulties caused by rainstorm waterlogging disasters is of great significance for their travel safety and emergency shelter needs. This study investigated urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters, evaluating the impact of the evolution of such disasters' evolution on residents' evacuation, using Daoli District (Harbin, China) as the research demonstration area to perform empirical research using a combination of scenario simulations, questionnaires, GIS spatial technology analysis and a hydrodynamics method to establish an urban rainstorm waterlogging numerical simulation model. The results show that under the conditions of a 10-year frequency rainstorm, there are three street sections in the study area with a high difficulty index, five street sections with medium difficulty index and the index is low at other districts, while under the conditions of a 50-year frequency rainstorm, there are five street sections with a high difficulty index, nine street sections with a medium difficulty index and the other districts all have a low index. These research results can help set the foundation for further small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster scenario simulations and emergency shelter planning as well as forecasting and warning, and provide a brand-new thought and research method for research on residents' safe travel.

  18. Estimating future ecoregion distributions within the Okavango Delta Wetlands based on hydrological simulations and future climate and development scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milzow, C.; Burg, V.; Kinzelbach, W.

    2010-02-01

    SummaryThe terminal wetlands of the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana are driven by the balance between inflows and evapotranspiration. The present situation is threatened by climate change and possible agricultural and industrial development in Botswana and the upstream countries Angola and Namibia. A new balance will affect the spatial extent and character of the Okavango Delta Wetlands. We apply a distributed hydrological model to study the impact of those threats on the hydrology and ecology of the wetlands. The relation between the present distribution of hydrological conditions and the occurrence of vegetation classes is investigated and a good correlation is found between depth to groundwater and vegetation class. By assuming that the distribution of vegetation will in the long term adapt to hydrological conditions, the simulated hydrological conditions under climate change and water management scenarios are translated into vegetation maps for these scenarios. Drier conditions are expected for the future and aquatic vegetation zones will be reduced in size. This change will however occur non-homogeneously over the Delta.

  19. Development of the scenario-based training system to reduce hazards and prevent accidents during decommissioning of nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, KwanSeong; Choi, Jong-Won; Moon, JeiKwon; Choi, ByungSeon; Hyun, Dongjun; Lee, Jonghwan; Kim, IkJune; Kim, GeunHo; Kang, ShinYoung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Decommissioning of nuclear facilities has to be accomplished by assuring the safety of workers. Decommissioning workers need familiarization with working environments because working environment is under high radioactivity and work difficulty during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. On-the-job training of decommissioning works could effectively train decommissioning workers but this training approach could consume much costs and poor modifications of scenarios. The efficiency of virtual training system could be much better than that of physical training system. This paper was intended to develop the training system to prevent accidents for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The requirements for the training system were drawn. The data management modules for the training system were designed. The training system of decommissioning workers was developed on the basis of virtual reality which is flexibly modified. The visualization and measurement in the training system were real-time done according as changes of the decommissioning scenario. It can be concluded that this training system enables the subject to improve his familiarization about working environments and to prevent accidents during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. In the end, the safety during decommissioning of nuclear facilities will be guaranteed under the principle of ALARA.

  20. Do you agree with the doctor's decision to continue treatment? A scenario-based study of hospital nurses in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingravallo, Francesca; Sandroni, Sara; D'Addio, Laura; Miccinesi, Guido

    2015-01-01

    A lack of social consensus on the duty to comply with a patient's request to forgo treatment was reported in Italy, but little is known about the nurses' attitudes regarding this issue. Questionnaire including two clinical scenarios regarding doctor's decision to not comply with a competent patient's request to forgo treatment was administered to all nurses (n = 487) of an Italian medium-sized hospital. Eighty-five percent of nurses completed the study. Although 83% of participants supported a general right to self-determination, around 40% of them agreed with the doctor's decision in both scenarios. The multivariate analyses adjusted for gender, age, length of professional experience, and care setting showed that the agreement with the doctor's decision was significantly associated with nurses' personal background beliefs about self-determination and quality of life. Many nurses have difficulty in accepting a patient's request to forgo treatment. Increasing ethical reflection and discussion at both educational and professional level, and introducing ethical consultation services would be essential to develop a consistent approach to end-of-life decisions in Italian hospitals.

  1. Evaluation of Resident Evacuations in Urban Rainstorm Waterlogging Disasters Based on Scenario Simulation: Daoli District (Harbin, China as an Example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Chen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available With the acceleration of urbanization, waterlogging has become an increasingly serious issue. Road waterlogging has a great influence on residents’ travel and traffic safety. Thus, evaluation of residents’ travel difficulties caused by rainstorm waterlogging disasters is of great significance for their travel safety and emergency shelter needs. This study investigated urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters, evaluating the impact of the evolution of such disasters’ evolution on residents’ evacuation, using Daoli District (Harbin, China as the research demonstration area to perform empirical research using a combination of scenario simulations, questionnaires, GIS spatial technology analysis and a hydrodynamics method to establish an urban rainstorm waterlogging numerical simulation model. The results show that under the conditions of a 10-year frequency rainstorm, there are three street sections in the study area with a high difficulty index, five street sections with medium difficulty index and the index is low at other districts, while under the conditions of a 50-year frequency rainstorm, there are five street sections with a high difficulty index, nine street sections with a medium difficulty index and the other districts all have a low index. These research results can help set the foundation for further small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster scenario simulations and emergency shelter planning as well as forecasting and warning, and provide a brand-new thought and research method for research on residents’ safe travel.

  2. A Space Domain Energetics Study for CO2 Increasing Based on SRES-A2 Emission Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Augusto P. Veiga

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a detailed investigation of the changes in the global pattern of energetics under a prescribed temporal evolution of CO2 concentration as proposed by the A2 IPCC forcing scenario (SRES-A2 using a combination of reanalysis and climate models. A validation climatology is computed using the classic Lorenz energetic formulation, with generation and dissipation components estimated as residuals. The results show a good agreement overall between models and reanalysis for the present day climate, noting that the models generally give more zonal energy and less eddy energy when compared to the reanalysis. Spatial analysis translates the above results as models depicting greater energy associated with the subtropical jet streams than effectively observed. This pattern is observed regardless of season or hemisphere. The projections for future climate scenarios suggest a further increase in the zonal kinetic energy, with a slight average reduction in all other terms. This pattern is seen in association with a substantial decrease in the conversion term mainly associated with sensible heat transport (CA under a warmer climate. In agreement with recent work in the literature, our results suggest an overall reduction of the global energetics under increasing CO2.

  3. Scenario-based modeling for multiple allocation hub location problem under disruption risk: multiple cuts Benders decomposition approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahyaei, Mohsen; Bashiri, Mahdi

    2017-03-01

    The hub location problem arises in a variety of domains such as transportation and telecommunication systems. In many real-world situations, hub facilities are subject to disruption. This paper deals with the multiple allocation hub location problem in the presence of facilities failure. To model the problem, a two-stage stochastic formulation is developed. In the proposed model, the number of scenarios grows exponentially with the number of facilities. To alleviate this issue, two approaches are applied simultaneously. The first approach is to apply sample average approximation to approximate the two stochastic problem via sampling. Then, by applying the multiple cuts Benders decomposition approach, computational performance is enhanced. Numerical studies show the effective performance of the SAA in terms of optimality gap for small problem instances with numerous scenarios. Moreover, performance of multi-cut Benders decomposition is assessed through comparison with the classic version and the computational results reveal the superiority of the multi-cut approach regarding the computational time and number of iterations.

  4. Tsunami simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai–Tonankai Trough (Japan) based on stochastic rupture scenarios

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro

    2017-02-23

    In this study, earthquake rupture models for future mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai–Tonankai subduction zone are developed by incorporating the main characteristics of inverted source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. These scenario ruptures also account for key features of the national tsunami source model for the Nankai–Tonankai earthquake by the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Government. The source models capture a wide range of realistic slip distributions and kinematic rupture processes, reflecting the current best understanding of what may happen due to a future mega-earthquake in the Nankai–Tonankai Trough, and therefore are useful for conducting probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. A large suite of scenario rupture models is then used to investigate the variability of tsunami effects in coastal areas, such as offshore tsunami wave heights and onshore inundation depths, due to realistic variations in source characteristics. Such investigations are particularly valuable for tsunami hazard mapping and evacuation planning in municipalities along the Nankai–Tonankai coast.

  5. Outdoor learning in hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibert, Jan

    2015-04-01

    For understanding important concepts in hydrology often the most efficient way of learning are field experiments with student involvement. In this contribution, I look back on my personal experiences as a student, an assistant and a teacher and ask myself, with a long-term perspective, what worked and what didn't. Some of the experiments, which I find most useful, are described in more detail such as the estimation of hydraulic conductivities based on groundwater salt dilution and an experiment to demonstrate the difference between flood-wave velocity and water particle velocity. Furthermore, some general thoughts on challenges to generate a good learning environment out in the field are given.

  6. Health promoting outdoor environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stigsdotter, Anna Ulrika Karlsson; Ekholm, Ola; Schipperijn, Jasper

    2010-01-01

    AIMS: To investigate the associations between green space and health, health-related quality of life and stress, respectively. METHODS: Data were derived from the 2005 Danish Health Interview Survey and are based on a region-stratified random sample of 21,832 adults. Data were collected via face......-to-face interviews followed by a self-administered questionnaire, including the SF-36, which measures eight dimensions of health and the Perceived Stress Scale, which measures self-reported stress. A total of 11,238 respondents completed the interview and returned the questionnaire. Multiple logistic regression...... analyses were performed to investigate the association between distance to green space and self-perceived stress. RESULTS: Danes living more than 1 km away from the nearest green space report poorer health and health-related quality of life, i.e. lower mean scores on all eight SF-36 dimensions of health...

  7. Integrating experimental and numerical methods for a scenario-based quantitative assessment of subsurface energy storage options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabuth, Alina; Dahmke, Andreas; Hagrey, Said Attia al; Berta, Márton; Dörr, Cordula; Koproch, Nicolas; Köber, Ralf; Köhn, Daniel; Nolde, Michael; Tilmann Pfeiffer, Wolf; Popp, Steffi; Schwanebeck, Malte; Bauer, Sebastian

    2016-04-01

    Within the framework of the transition to renewable energy sources ("Energiewende"), the German government defined the target of producing 60 % of the final energy consumption from renewable energy sources by the year 2050. However, renewable energies are subject to natural fluctuations. Energy storage can help to buffer the resulting time shifts between production and demand. Subsurface geological structures provide large potential capacities for energy stored in the form of heat or gas on daily to seasonal time scales. In order to explore this potential sustainably, the possible induced effects of energy storage operations have to be quantified for both specified normal operation and events of failure. The ANGUS+ project therefore integrates experimental laboratory studies with numerical approaches to assess subsurface energy storage scenarios and monitoring methods. Subsurface storage options for gas, i.e. hydrogen, synthetic methane and compressed air in salt caverns or porous structures, as well as subsurface heat storage are investigated with respect to site prerequisites, storage dimensions, induced effects, monitoring methods and integration into spatial planning schemes. The conceptual interdisciplinary approach of the ANGUS+ project towards the integration of subsurface energy storage into a sustainable subsurface planning scheme is presented here, and this approach is then demonstrated using the examples of two selected energy storage options: Firstly, the option of seasonal heat storage in a shallow aquifer is presented. Coupled thermal and hydraulic processes induced by periodic heat injection and extraction were simulated in the open-source numerical modelling package OpenGeoSys. Situations of specified normal operation as well as cases of failure in operational storage with leaking heat transfer fluid are considered. Bench-scale experiments provided parameterisations of temperature dependent changes in shallow groundwater hydrogeochemistry. As a

  8. A multiple-scenario assessment of the effect of a continuous-care, guideline-based decision support system on clinicians' compliance to clinical guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shalom, Erez; Shahar, Yuval; Parmet, Yisrael; Lunenfeld, Eitan

    2015-04-01

    To quantify the effect of a new continuous-care guideline (GL)-application engine, the Picard decision support system (DSS) engine, on the correctness and completeness of clinicians' decisions relative to an established clinical GL, and to assess the clinicians' attitudes towards a specific DSS. Thirty-six clinicians, including residents at different training levels and board-certified specialists at an academic OB/GYN department that handles around 15,000 deliveries annually, agreed to evaluate our continuous-care guideline-based DSS and to perform a cross-over assessment of the effects of using our guideline-based DSS. We generated electronic patient records that realistically simulated the longitudinal course of six different clinical scenarios of the preeclampsia/eclampsia/toxemia (PET) GL, encompassing 60 different decision points in total. Each clinician managed three scenarios manually without the Picard DSS engine (Non-DSS mode) and three scenarios when assisted by the Picard DSS engine (DSS mode). The main measures in both modes were correctness and completeness of actions relative to the PET GL. Correctness was further decomposed into necessary and redundant actions, relative to the guideline and the actual patient data. At the end of the assessment, a questionnaire was administered to the clinicians to assess their perceptions regarding use of the DSS. With respect to completeness, the clinicians applied approximately 41% of the GL's recommended actions in the non-DSS mode. Completeness increased to the performance of approximately 93% of the guideline's recommended actions, when using the DSS mode. With respect to correctness, approximately 94.5% of the clinicians' decisions in the non-DSS mode were correct. However, these included 68% of the actions that were correct but redundant, given the patient's data (e.g., repeating tests that had been performed), and 27% of the actions, which were necessary in the context of the GL and of the given scenario

  9. Improving scenario discovery by bagging random boxes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwakkel, J.H.; Cunningham, S.

    2016-01-01

    Scenario discovery is a model-based approach to scenario development under deep uncertainty. Scenario discovery relies on the use of statistical machine learning algorithms. The most frequently used algorithm is the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). This algorithm identifies regions in an

  10. Fuel prices scenario generation based on a multivariate GARCH model for risk analysis in a wholesale electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Batlle, C.; Barquin, J. [Universidad Pontifica Comillas, Madrid (Spain). Instituto de Investigacion Tecnologica

    2004-05-01

    This paper presents a fuel prices scenario generator in the frame of a simulation tool developed to support risk analysis in a competitive electricity environment. The tool feeds different erogenous risk factors to a wholesale electricity market model to perform a statistical analysis of the results. As the different fuel series that are studied, such as the oil or gas ones, present stochastic volatility and strong correlation among them, a multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model has been designed in order to allow the generation of future fuel prices paths. The model makes use of a decomposition method to simplify the consideration of the multidimensional conditional covariance. An example of its application with real data is also presented. (author)

  11. A Scenario-Based Method for Assessing the Impact of Suggested Woodland Key Habitats on Forest Harvesting Costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nils Egil Søvde

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Variable retention harvesting is acknowledged as a cost-effective conservation measure, but previous studies have focused on the environmental value and planning cost. In this study, a model is presented for optimizing harvesting cost using a high resolution map generated from airborne laser scanning data. The harvesting cost optimization model is used to calculate the objective value of different scenarios. By comparing the objective values, better estimates of the opportunity cost of woodland key habitats are found. The model can be used by a forest manager when evaluating what silvicultural treatments to implement or as an input for improving the nature reserve selection problem for woodland key habitats or retention patches. The model was tested on four real-world cases, and the results indicate that terrain transportation costs vary more than reported in the literature and that it may be worthwhile to divide the opportunity cost into its direct and indirect components.

  12. Family Learning Outdoors: Guided Participation on a Nature Walk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Heather Toomey; McClain, Lucy R.

    2016-01-01

    This informal learning research project examined how guided participation processes support the use of cultural tools (such as scientific equipment) during a nature walk at one nature center. This paper analyzed family interactions outdoors using microethnographic methods. An informal learning framework based on guided participation and cultural…

  13. Why Play Outside? Problematising Outdoor Play as a Biopedagogical Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Daniel B.; Barrett, Joe

    2017-01-01

    Although outdoor play has been widely recognised for the many benefits it affords children, some have rationalised the need for it based on goals related to physical health. More specifically, these instrumental goals have been closely related to obesity, overweight, and/or physical (in)activity. Adhering to obesity discourses and the notion of a…

  14. A Socio-Environmental Case for Skill in Outdoor Adventure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullins, Philip M.

    2014-01-01

    In response to the crisis of sustainability, this paper revisits understandings of human--environment relations established through skill-based outdoor activities that are used commonly among adventure recreation, education, and tourism. Reconsidering a predominant focus on risk and a persistent tension between technical and environmental…

  15. Hemispheric Brain Research: A Breakthrough in Outdoor Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staley, Frederick A.

    1980-01-01

    Outdoor education facilitates the use of both cerebral hemispheres. The right side, which is often ignored in traditional education, is the location of intuitive, imaginative, and metaphoric thinking and can be used in conjunction with the left side, the base of logical and analytic thought. (CJ)

  16. Designing for Outdoor Musical Performances in Nigeria | Orisaremi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... are discussed as focal points for consideration. The categorization of practising professionals in the field of entertainment technology is done to assist in understanding the operational principles of the practice. Based on non-idealistic empiricism and with particular reference to the 2011 Havana Outdoor Concert in Ibadan, ...

  17. Outdoor Adventure Education for Children in Scotland: Quantifying the Benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scrutton, Roger A.

    2015-01-01

    Outdoor adventure education (OAE) is widely recognised for its ability to elicit personal and social development for its participants. However, quantitative evidence on which this recognition is based is frequently questioned, and is virtually absent in Scotland. To provide some of the first statistically determined evidence from Scotland that OAE…

  18. Model experiments related to outdoor propagation over an earth berm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Karsten Bo

    1994-01-01

    A series of scale model experiments related to outdoor propagation over an earth berm is described. The measurements are performed with a triggered spark source. The results are compared with data from an existing calculation model based upon uniform diffraction theory. Comparisons are made...

  19. Alternative forest resource use - outdoor recreation and rural economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellene Kebede; John Schelhas; Janet Haslerig

    2008-01-01

    Since the 1980s demand for outdoor recreation has been increasing in the United States. Growing income and change in lifestyles have been cited as factors contributing to the increase in demand. This period also coincided with a decline in timber prices and loss of income to forest land owners. Forest-based recreation has intensified as a part of forest management...

  20. Derivation of the Cramér-Rao Bound in the GNSS-Reflectometry Context for Static, Ground-Based Receivers in Scenarios with Coherent Reflection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribot, Miguel Angel; Botteron, Cyril; Farine, Pierre-André

    2016-12-05

    The use of the reflected Global Navigation Satellite Systems' (GNSS) signals in Earth observation applications, referred to as GNSS reflectometry (GNSS-R), has been already studied for more than two decades. However, the estimation precision that can be achieved by GNSS-R sensors in some particular scenarios is still not fully understood yet. In an effort to partially fill this gap, in this paper, we compute the Cramér-Rao bound (CRB) for the specific case of static ground-based GNSS-R receivers and scenarios where the coherent component of the reflected signal is dominant. We compute the CRB for GNSS signals with different modulations, GPS L1 C/A and GPS L5 I/Q, which use binary phase-shift keying, and Galileo E1 B/C and E5, using the binary offset carrier. The CRB for these signals is evaluated as a function of the receiver bandwidth and different scenario parameters, such as the height of the receiver or the properties of the reflection surface. The CRB computation presented considers observation times of up to several tens of seconds, in which the satellite elevation angle observed changes significantly. Finally, the results obtained show the theoretical benefit of using modern GNSS signals with GNSS-R techniques using long observation times, such as the interference pattern technique.