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Sample records for risk-based decision process

  1. Risk-Based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end...

  2. Practical risk-based decision making: Good decisions made efficiently

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haire, M.J.; Guthrie, V.; Walker, D.; Singer, R.

    1995-01-01

    The Robotics and Process Systems Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Westinghouse Savannah River Company have teamed with JBF Associates, Inc. to address risk-based robotic planning. The objective of the project is to provide systematic, risk-based relative comparisons of competing alternatives for solving clean-up problems at DOE facilities. This paper presents the methodology developed, describes the software developed to efficiently apply the methodology, and discusses the results of initial applications for DOE. The paper also addresses current work in applying the approach to problems in other industries (including an example from the hydrocarbon processing industry)

  3. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

    2009-03-01

    This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

  4. Risk-based emergency decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koerte, Jens

    2003-01-01

    In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

  5. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  6. Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bendure, A.O.

    1995-03-01

    Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

  7. Promotion of technical harmonisation on risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchsteiger, Christian; Cojazzi, Giacomo

    2000-01-01

    The EC-JRC International Workshop on Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making, held at Stresa and Ispra, Italy, 22-25 May 2000, was an experts meeting to discuss the possible need of developing an internationally accepted generic 'standard' for risk-based decision making.This paper briefly describes the workshop background, its organisation and summarises its main results and conclusions; it reflects the personal opinions of the authors and in no way commits the European Commission. (author)

  8. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  9. Risk-Based Decision Support of Water Resource Management Alternatives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    West, Paul D; Trainor, Timothy E

    2006-01-01

    .... A model is presented that combines a new risk assessment methodology with traditional decision-making tools to enable systems engineers to capture the full spectrum of operational risks during the design process...

  10. Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michalopoulos Evangelos

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

  11. Demonstration of risk-based decision analysis in remedial alternative selection and design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, E.K.; Duffield, G.M.; Massmann, J.W.; Freeze, R.A.; Stephenson, D.E.

    1993-01-01

    This study demonstrates the use of risk-based decision analysis (Massmann and Freeze 1987a, 1987b) in the selection and design of an engineering alternative for groundwater remediation at a waste site at the Savannah River Site, a US Department of Energy facility in South Carolina. The investigation focuses on the remediation and closure of the H-Area Seepage Basins, an inactive disposal site that formerly received effluent water from a nearby production facility. A previous study by Duffield et al. (1992), which used risk-based decision analysis to screen a number of ground-water remediation alternatives under consideration for this site, indicated that the most attractive remedial option is ground-water extraction by wells coupled with surface water discharge of treated effluent. The aim of the present study is to demonstrate the iterative use of risk-based decision analysis throughout the design of a particular remedial alternative. In this study, we consider the interaction between two episodes of aquifer testing over a 6-year period and the refinement of a remedial extraction well system design. Using a three-dimensional ground-water flow model, this study employs (1) geostatistics and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate hydraulic conductivity as a stochastic process and (2) Bayesian updating and conditional simulation to investigate multiple phases of aquifer testing. In our evaluation of a remedial alternative, we compute probabilistic costs associated with the failure of an alternative to completely capture a simulated contaminant plume. The results of this study demonstrate the utility of risk-based decision analysis as a tool for improving the design of a remedial alternative through the course of phased data collection at a remedial site

  12. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahearne, J.F. [The Sigma XI Center, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    1999-12-01

    As a physicist, I prefer the R = P x C, with the inclusion of a risk magnifier when appropriate. However, I also accept this is inadequate. For risk-based decisions to be acceptable in a democratic society, there must be widespread agreement on the criteria to be used, the process by which the decision is reached, and the linkage between the criteria and the decision. These demand a transparent process. Armour wrote: 'To date, efforts directed toward facility siting conflicts have focused almost exclusively on the 'public acceptance' factor (and neglected the legitimacy of the process] - the sad reality is that these strategies have not beenall that effective. Moreover, given that the underlying motivation is to 'gain public acceptance' such strategies have often worsened the facility siting problems when used by proponents who were unable, in appearance or in fact, to tread the fine line between manipulating public opinion and liberating it ... the issue of the legitimacy of the decision making process had tended to be taken for granted. Generally speaking, policy makers have failed to seriously question and have not responded well to others who have dared to question the established roles and principles of our conventional processes of decision making.' Finally, acceptance also requires agreement that the issues to be decided are the appropriate issues. Often the decision-makers concentrate on issues that are not the ones the public views as the most important. Sometimes it is because the public wants other alternatives examined. Sometimes it is because the public does not accept the necessity to decide now. And sometimes it is because the public does not trust those who have assumed responsibility for making the decision. The analytic community has grown in size and skill over the last 20 years. The science community has produced a better understanding of health effects and exposure pathways. The engineering community has designed

  13. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahearne, J.F.

    1999-01-01

    As a physicist, I prefer the R = P x C, with the inclusion of a risk magnifier when appropriate. However, I also accept this is inadequate. For risk-based decisions to be acceptable in a democratic society, there must be widespread agreement on the criteria to be used, the process by which the decision is reached, and the linkage between the criteria and the decision. These demand a transparent process. Armour wrote: 'To date, efforts directed toward facility siting conflicts have focused almost exclusively on the 'public acceptance' factor (and neglected the legitimacy of the process] - the sad reality is that these strategies have not been all that effective. Moreover, given that the underlying motivation is to 'gain public acceptance' such strategies have often worsened the facility siting problems when used by proponents who were unable, in appearance or in fact, to tread the fine line between manipulating public opinion and liberating it ... the issue of the legitimacy of the decision making process had tended to be taken for granted. Generally speaking, policy makers have failed to seriously question and have not responded well to others who have dared to question the established roles and principles of our conventional processes of decision making.' Finally, acceptance also requires agreement that the issues to be decided are the appropriate issues. Often the decision-makers concentrate on issues that are not the ones the public views as the most important. Sometimes it is because the public wants other alternatives examined. Sometimes it is because the public does not accept the necessity to decide now. And sometimes it is because the public does not trust those who have assumed responsibility for making the decision. The analytic community has grown in size and skill over the last 20 years. The science community has produced a better understanding of health effects and exposure pathways. The engineering community has designed safer systems. However, the

  14. A risk-based model for maintenance decision support of civil structures using RAMS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Viana Da Rocha, T. C.; Stipanovic, I.; Hartmann, A.; Bakker, J.

    2017-01-01

    As a cornerstone of transportation asset management, risk-based approaches have been used to support maintenance decisions of civil structures. However, ambiguous and subjective risk criteria and inconsistency on the use of risk-based approaches can lead to a fuzzy understanding of the risks

  15. SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

  16. Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy. Ascher

    2011-01-01

    Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

  17. Group Decision Process Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gøtze, John; Hijikata, Masao

    1997-01-01

    Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists.......Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists....

  18. A risk-based auditing process for pharmaceutical manufacturers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargo, Susan; Dana, Bob; Rangavajhula, Vijaya; Rönninger, Stephan

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to share ideas on developing a risk-based model for the scheduling of audits (both internal and external). Audits are a key element of a manufacturer's quality system and provide an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's or the supplier/vendor's compliance status. Suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches are discussed in the article. Pharmaceutical manufacturers are required to establish and implement a quality system. The quality system is an organizational structure defining responsibilities, procedures, processes, and resources that the manufacturer has established to ensure quality throughout the manufacturing process. Audits are a component of the manufacturer's quality system and provide a systematic and an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's overall quality system and compliance status. Audits are performed at defined intervals for a specified duration. The intention of the audit process is to focus on key areas within the quality system and may not cover all relevant areas during each audit. In this article, the authors provide suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches to aid pharmaceutical manufacturers in identifying the key focus areas for an audit.

  19. Risk based decision tool for space exploration missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steve; Moran, Terrence

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an approach and corresponding tool to assess and analyze the risks involved in a mission during the pre-phase A design process. This approach is based on creating a risk template for each subsystem expert involved in the mission design process and defining appropriate interactions between the templates.

  20. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P.

    2015-01-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing

  1. Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

    2003-01-01

    A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

  2. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P

    2015-08-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making. © 2015 AABB.

  3. Risk-based decision making to manage water quality failures caused by combined sewer overflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriwastava, A. K.; Torres-Matallana, J. A.; Tait, S.; Schellart, A.

    2017-12-01

    Regulatory authorities set certain environmental permit for water utilities such that the combined sewer overflows (CSO) managed by these companies conform to the regulations. These utility companies face the risk of paying penalty or negative publicity in case they breach the environmental permit. These risks can be addressed by designing appropriate solutions such as investing in additional infrastructure which improve the system capacity and reduce the impact of CSO spills. The performance of these solutions is often estimated using urban drainage models. Hence, any uncertainty in these models can have a significant effect on the decision making process. This study outlines a risk-based decision making approach to address water quality failure caused by CSO spills. A calibrated lumped urban drainage model is used to simulate CSO spill quality in Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg. Uncertainty in rainfall and model parameters is propagated through Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty in the concentration of ammonia in the CSO spill. A combination of decision alternatives such as the construction of a storage tank at the CSO and the reduction in the flow contribution of catchment surfaces are selected as planning measures to avoid the water quality failure. Failure is defined as exceedance of a concentration-duration based threshold based on Austrian emission standards for ammonia (De Toffol, 2006) with a certain frequency. For each decision alternative, uncertainty quantification results into a probability distribution of the number of annual CSO spill events which exceed the threshold. For each alternative, a buffered failure probability as defined in Rockafellar & Royset (2010), is estimated. Buffered failure probability (pbf) is a conservative estimate of failure probability (pf), however, unlike failure probability, it includes information about the upper tail of the distribution. A pareto-optimal set of solutions is obtained by performing mean

  4. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Accident Management ampersand Risk-Based Compliance With 40 CFR 68 for Chemical Process Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Kula, K.R.; Taylor, R.P. Jr.; Ashbaugh, S.G.

    1995-01-01

    A risk-based logic model is suggested as an appropriate basis for better predicting accident progression and ensuing source terms to the environment from process upset conditions in complex chemical process facilities. Under emergency conditions, decision-makers may use the Accident Progression Event Tree approach to identify the best countermeasure for minimizing deleterious consequences to receptor groups before the atmospheric release has initiated. It is concluded that the chemical process industry may use this methodology as a supplemental information provider to better comply with the Environmental Protection Agency's proposed 40 CFR 68 Risk Management Program rule. An illustration using a benzene-nitric acid potential interaction demonstrates the value of the logic process. The identification of worst-case releases and planning for emergency response are improved through these methods, at minimum. It also provides a systematic basis for prioritizing facility modifications to correct vulnerabilities

  6. Rational risk-based decision support for drinking water well managers by optimized monitoring designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzenhöfer, R.; Geiges, A.; Nowak, W.

    2011-12-01

    Advection-based well-head protection zones are commonly used to manage the contamination risk of drinking water wells. Considering the insufficient knowledge about hazards and transport properties within the catchment, current Water Safety Plans recommend that catchment managers and stakeholders know, control and monitor all possible hazards within the catchments and perform rational risk-based decisions. Our goal is to supply catchment managers with the required probabilistic risk information, and to generate tools that allow for optimal and rational allocation of resources between improved monitoring versus extended safety margins and risk mitigation measures. To support risk managers with the indispensable information, we address the epistemic uncertainty of advective-dispersive solute transport and well vulnerability (Enzenhoefer et al., 2011) within a stochastic simulation framework. Our framework can separate between uncertainty of contaminant location and actual dilution of peak concentrations by resolving heterogeneity with high-resolution Monte-Carlo simulation. To keep computational costs low, we solve the reverse temporal moment transport equation. Only in post-processing, we recover the time-dependent solute breakthrough curves and the deduced well vulnerability criteria from temporal moments by non-linear optimization. Our first step towards optimal risk management is optimal positioning of sampling locations and optimal choice of data types to reduce best the epistemic prediction uncertainty for well-head delineation, using the cross-bred Likelihood Uncertainty Estimator (CLUE, Leube et al., 2011) for optimal sampling design. Better monitoring leads to more reliable and realistic protection zones and thus helps catchment managers to better justify smaller, yet conservative safety margins. In order to allow an optimal choice in sampling strategies, we compare the trade-off in monitoring versus the delineation costs by accounting for ill

  7. A risk based model supporting long term maintenance and reinvestment strategy decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sand, Kjell; Montard, Julien; Tremoen, Tord H.

    2010-02-15

    This Technical Report is a product from the project Risk-Based Distribution System Asset Management (short: RISK DSAM) - Work Package 3 Risk exposure on company/strategic level. In the report a concept for portfolio distribution system asset management is presented. The approach comprises four main steps: 1. Decide the asset base. 2. Divide the asset base into relevant archetypes. 3. Develop or select relevant maintenance and reinvestment strategies for the different archetypes. 4. Estimate risks and costs for each archetype for the relevant strategies. For the different steps guidelines are given and a proposal for implementation of the concept is given in terms of a proposed IT system architecture.To evaluate the feasibility of such a concept, a prototype was developed in by using Visual Basic macros in Excel using real technical data from a small DSO. The experience from using the prototype shows that the concept is realistic. All assets are included and depending of the ambition of the risk analysis both simple simulation models and more advanced might be embedded. Presentations of the concept for a utility engineers have receive positive feedback indicating that the concept is regarded as a practical way to develop risk based asset management strategies for the asset fleet. It should be noted that the concept should be applied on a company strategic level and is thus not designed to be applied for a specific project or asset decisions. For this, more detailed models with area specific information, topology etc. are needed. (Author)

  8. Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, Kash; Haimes, Yacov Y.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based decision making often relies upon expert probability assessments, particularly in the consequences of disruptive events and when such events are extreme or catastrophic in nature. Naturally, such expert-elicited probability distributions can be fraught with errors, as they describe events which occur very infrequently and for which only sparse data exist. This paper presents a quantitative framework, the extreme event uncertainty sensitivity impact method (EE-USIM), for measuring the sensitivity of extreme event consequences to uncertainties in the parameters of the underlying probability distribution. The EE-USIM is demonstrated with the Inoperability input-output model (IIM), a model with which to evaluate the propagation of inoperability throughout an interdependent set of economic and infrastructure sectors. The EE-USIM also makes use of a two-sided power distribution function generated by expert elicitation of extreme event consequences

  9. Risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manap, Norpadzlihatun; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

    2014-10-15

    The aim of this study was to develop a risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option. Descriptions using case studies of the newly integrated, holistic and staged framework were followed. The first stage utilized the historical dredging monitoring data and the contamination level in media data into Ecological Risk Assessment phases, which have been altered for benefits in cost, time and simplicity. How Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used to analyze and prioritize dredging areas based on environmental, socio-economic and managerial criteria was described for the next stage. The results from MCDA will be integrated into Ecological Risk Assessment to characterize the degree of contamination in the prioritized areas. The last stage was later described using these findings and analyzed using MCDA, in order to identify the best sediment dredging option, accounting for the economic, environmental and technical aspects of dredging, which is beneficial for dredging and sediment management industries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk-based analysis of business process executions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alizadeh, M.; Zannone, N.

    2016-01-01

    Organizations need to monitor their business processes to ensure that what actually happens in the system is compliant with the prescribed behavior. Deviations from the prescribed behavior may correspond to violations of security requirements and expose organizations to severe risks. Thus, it is

  11. Risk-based decision making: The East Fork Poplar Creek case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, D.R.J.; Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W.; Parkhurst, B.R.; Teed, R.S.

    1999-12-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment revealed that methylmercury released from the US Department of Energy (DOE) Y-12 weapons facility at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, poses moderate risks to mink and kingfishers residing near the receiving waters of East Fork Poplar Creek. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) released from this facility pose severe risks to mink but little risk to kingfishers. The objective of this study was to use a risk-based decision-making approach to select remedial cleanup levels for each of these contaminants. The authors conducted Monte Carlo simulations to estimate total daily intakes of each contaminant by mink (mercury and PCBs) and kingfishers (PCBs only) for a range of exposure-reduction scenarios. The resulting exposure distributions were then integrated with their respective dose-response curves to estimate postremediation risks. The results indicated that total mercury levels in surface water would need to be reduced from current levels (mean = 0.225 {micro}g/L) to 0.03 to 0.05 {micro}g/L to reduce risks to very low levels (<5% probability of {ge}20% mortality) for both mink and kingfishers. If interested parties define acceptable risk as, for example, a 20% probability of {gt} 10% mortality, then mercury levels would need to be reduced to 0.14 {micro}g/L. The PCBs analysis indicated that reducing water-borne exposures would produce only a modest reduction in risk to mink because much of the current exposure is through terrestrial exposure pathways.

  12. Policy issues arising from the judgmental nature of risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mcquaid, J.

    1998-01-01

    The regulation of risks is pervaded by the need to exercise judgement. The scientific basis for characterising risk problems and judging the effectiveness of possible controls is often uncertain, lacking information and understanding of the processes involved. However, the risk management measures adopted will not be determined by science alone, but must reflect sociological, economic, ethical and political considerations. These in turn are in themselves judgmental, informed to a greater or lesser extent by empirical evidence and influenced by the prevailing climate of public opinion. The overall process provides a rich source of confusion for the public as to the status of the eventual policy decision, with important implications for the manner in which the process of communication is managed. The important role of judgement, as distinct from formal analysis, at every stage needs to be reflected in risk communication. The engagement of those who bear the risks, and of other interested parties in the exercise of judgement must be tailored to nature of the judgement and to the decision to be made. Appropriate procedures need to be adopted to enable that engagement. Although the issue has come into particular prominence in recent years, it is not a new phenomenon. The presentation will describe the arrangements that have been developed in the UK over the past 25 years, and will be illustrated by some specific examples of risk decision making on issues of high public concern. (author)

  13. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  14. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khakzad, Nima, E-mail: nkhakzad@gmail.com [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Reniers, Genserik [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Antwerp Research Group on Safety and Security (ARGoSS), Faculty of Applied Economics, Universiteit Antwerpen, Antwerp (Belgium); Research Group CEDON, Campus Brussels, KULeuven, Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • A Bayesian network methodology has been developed to estimate the total probability of major accidents in chemical plants. • Total probability of accidents includes the probability of individual accidents and potential domino effects. • The methodology has been extended to calculate on-site and off-site risks. • The results of the risk analysis have been used in a multi-criteria decision analysis technique to risk-based design of chemical plants. - Abstract: Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum.

  15. New approach for risk based inspection of H2S based Process Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Sharma, Pavan K.; Santosh, T.V.; Hari Prasad, M.; Vaze, K.K.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Study looks into improving the consequence evaluation in risk based inspection. • Ways to revise the quantity factors used in qualitative approach. • New approach based on computational fluid dynamics along with probit mathematics. • Demonstrated this methodology along with a suitable case study for the said issue. - Abstract: Recent trend in risk informed and risk based approaches in life management issues have certainly put the focus on developing estimation methods for real risk. Idea of employing risk as an optimising measure for in-service inspection, termed as risk based inspection, was accepted in principle from late 80s. While applying risk based inspection, consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed. Consequence evaluation in a Process Plant is a crucial task. It may be noted that, in general, the number of components to be considered for life management is very large and hence the consequence evaluation resulting from their failures (individually) is a laborious task. Screening of critical components is usually carried out using simplified qualitative approach, which primarily uses influence factors for categorisation. This necessitates logical formulation of influence factors and their ranges with a suitable technical basis for acceptance from regulators. This paper describes application of risk based inspection for H 2 S based Process Plant along with the approach devised for handling the influence factor related to the quantity of H 2 S released

  16. Risk-based decision-making: A reality at the INEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halford, V.E.; Nitschke, R.L.; Hula, G.A.

    1994-01-01

    Risk Analysis and Risk Management are major components of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory's (INEL's) environmental restoration and waste management program. These tools help define responsible and cost-effective approaches to address potential human health and environmental risks from past operational practices. These techniques along with stake holder involvement, play a key role in the decision-making process which involves the US Department of Energy Idaho Operations Office (DOE), the US Environmental Protection Agency Region 10 (EPA), and the State of Idaho Department of Health and Welfare (IDHW), hereafter referred to as the agencies. An example of how this process works is Pad A, an above-ground mixed waste disposal site composed mainly of transuranic-contaminated evaporation pond salts. The site was constructed in 1972 for the disposal of solid radioactive wastes. A Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) baseline risk assessment was conducted to determine the incremental cancer risk and potential for adverse health effects to the public and the impacts to the environment if no action was performed. The risk characterization indicated that the carcinogenic risk for current and future hypothetical scenarios was below or within the NCP acceptable risk range. There was a potential 10 year window for an adverse health effect to an infant from nitrate contamination of the groundwater in about 250 years. Based on these results, a responsible and sound decision was reached to maintain and recontour the existing soil cover and to perform monitoring to confirm modeling assumptions

  17. Integration of laboratory bioassays into the risk-based corrective action process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, D.; Messina, F.; Clark, J.

    1995-01-01

    Recent data generated by the Gas Research Institute (GRI) and others indicate that residual hydrocarbon may be bound/sequestered in soil such that it is unavailable for microbial degradation, and thus possibly not bioavailable to human/ecological receptors. A reduction in bioavailability would directly equate to reduced exposure and, therefore, potentially less-conservative risk-based cleanup soil goals. Laboratory bioassays which measure bioavailability/toxicity can be cost-effectively integrated into the risk-based corrective action process. However, in order to maximize the cost-effective application of bioassays several site-specific parameters should be addressed up front. This paper discusses (1) the evaluation of parameters impacting the application of bioassays to soils contaminated with metals and/or petroleum hydrocarbons and (2) the cost-effective integration of bioassays into a tiered ASTM type framework for risk-based corrective action

  18. Towards a Risk-based Decision Support for Offshore Wind Turbine Installation and Operation & Maintenance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Vatne, Sigrid Ringdalen

    2016-01-01

    Costs of operation & maintenance, assembly, transport and installation of offshore wind turbines contribute significantly to the total cost of offshore wind farm. These operations are mostly carried out by specific ships that have to be hired for the operational phase and for duration of installa......Costs of operation & maintenance, assembly, transport and installation of offshore wind turbines contribute significantly to the total cost of offshore wind farm. These operations are mostly carried out by specific ships that have to be hired for the operational phase and for duration...... of installation process, respectively. Duration, and therefore ship hiring costs is, among others, driven by waiting time for weather windows for weather-sensitive operations. Today, state of the art decision making criteria for weather-sensitive operations are restrictions to the significant wave height...... and the average wind velocity at reference height. However, actual limitations are physical, related to response of equipment used e.g. crane wire tension, rotor assembly motions while lifting, etc. Transition from weather condition limits to limits on physical equipment response in decision making would improve...

  19. Integrating technical analysis and public values in risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohnenblust, Hans; Slovic, Paul

    1998-01-01

    Simple technical analysis cannot capture the complex scope of preferences or values of society and individuals. However, decision making needs to be sustained by formal analysis. The paper describes a policy framework which incorporates both technical analysis and aspects of public values. The framework can be used as a decision supporting tool and helps decision makers to make more informed and more transparent decisions about safety issues

  20. Cognitive judgment bias interacts with risk based decision making and sensitivity to dopaminergic challenge in rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Drozd

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Although cognitive theory has implicated judgement bias in various psychopathologies, its role in decision making under risk remains relatively unexplored. In the present study we assessed the effects of cognitive judgment bias on risky choices in rats. First, we trained and tested the animals on the rat version of the probability-discounting task. During discrete trials, the rats chose between two levers; a press on the ‘small/certain’ lever always resulted in the delivery of one reward pellet, whereas a press on the ‘large/risky’ lever resulted in the delivery of four pellets. However, the probability of receiving a reward from the ‘large/risky’ lever gradually decreased over the four trial blocks. Subsequently, the rats were re-trained and evaluated on a series of ambiguous-cue interpretation tests, which permitted their classification according to the display of ‘optimistic’ or ‘pessimistic’ traits. Because dopamine has been implicated in both: risky choices and optimism, in the last experiment, we compared the reactivity of the dopaminergic system in the ‘optimistic’ and ‘pessimistic’ animals using the apomorphine (2mg/kg s.c. sensitivity test. We demonstrated that as risk increased, the proportion of risky lever choices decreased significantly slower in ‘optimists’ compared with ‘pessimists’ and that these differences between the two groups of rats were associated with different levels of dopaminergic system reactivity. Our findings suggest that cognitive judgement bias, risky decision-making and dopamine are linked, and they provide a foundation for further investigation of the behavioural traits and cognitive processes that influence risky choices in animal models.

  1. Risk based economic optimization of investment decisions of regulated power distribution system operators; Risikobasierte wirtschaftliche Optimierung von Investitionsentscheidungen regulierter Stromnetzbetreiber

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John, Oliver

    2012-07-01

    The author of the contribution under consideration reports on risk-based economic optimization of investment decisions of regulated power distribution system operators. The focus is the economically rational decision behavior of operators under certain regulatory requirements. Investments in power distribution systems form the items subject to decisions. Starting from a description of theoretical and practical regulatory approaches, their financial implications are quantified at first. On this basis, optimization strategies are derived with respect to the investment behavior. For this purpose, an optimization algorithm is developed and applied to exemplary companies. Finally, effects of uncertainties in regulatory systems are investigated. In this context, Monte Carlo simulations are used in conjunction with real options analysis.

  2. Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ''risk perspective'' as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation

  3. Bayesian risk-based decision method for model validation under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Xiaomo; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops a decision-making methodology for computational model validation, considering the risk of using the current model, data support for the current model, and cost of acquiring new information to improve the model. A Bayesian decision theory-based method is developed for this purpose, using a likelihood ratio as the validation metric for model assessment. An expected risk or cost function is defined as a function of the decision costs, and the likelihood and prior of each hypothesis. The risk is minimized through correctly assigning experimental data to two decision regions based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a decision threshold. A Bayesian validation metric is derived based on the risk minimization criterion. Two types of validation tests are considered: pass/fail tests and system response value measurement tests. The methodology is illustrated for the validation of reliability prediction models in a tension bar and an engine blade subjected to high cycle fatigue. The proposed method can effectively integrate optimal experimental design into model validation to simultaneously reduce the cost and improve the accuracy of reliability model assessment

  4. Interactive Decision-Support Tool for Risk-Based Radiation Therapy Plan Comparison for Hodgkin Lymphoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brodin, N. Patrik; Maraldo, Maja V.; Aznar, Marianne C.

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE: To present a novel tool that allows quantitative estimation and visualization of the risk of various relevant normal tissue endpoints to aid in treatment plan comparison and clinical decision making in radiation therapy (RT) planning for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). METHODS AND MATERIALS...... and a volumetric modulated arc therapy plan for a patient with mediastinal HL. CONCLUSION: This multiple-endpoint decision-support tool provides quantitative risk estimates to supplement the clinical judgment of the radiation oncologist when comparing different RT options....... of dose-response curves to drive the reoptimization of a volumetric modulated arc therapy treatment plan for an HL patient with head-and-neck involvement. We also use this decision-support tool to visualize and quantitatively evaluate the trade-off between a 3-dimensional conformal RT plan...

  5. Risk-based decision-making regarding mixed waste disposal systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberds, W.J.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on an efficient approach that has been developed for making rational and defensible decisions among a variety of options (e.g., remedial actions, engineered barriers designs/operational controls, inventory limitations, site investigations and research) for mixed-waste disposal systems, which consist of multiple interacting sites (active, inactive and/or future) with multiple pathways. Such decisions are based on maximizing the satisfaction of identified objectives (including the reliability vis a vis specified criteria), explicitly considering tradeoffs among objectives as well as uncertainties in the consequences of any option

  6. A risk-based approach to flood management decisions in a nonstationary world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosner, Ana; Vogel, Richard M.; Kirshen, Paul H.

    2014-03-01

    Traditional approaches to flood management in a nonstationary world begin with a null hypothesis test of "no trend" and its likelihood, with little or no attention given to the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. Concluding a trend exists when it does not, or rejecting a trend when it exists are known as type I and type II errors, respectively. Decision-makers are poorly served by statistical and/or decision methods that do not carefully consider both over- and under-preparation errors, respectively. Similarly, little attention is given to how to integrate uncertainty in our ability to detect trends into a flood management decision context. We show how trend hypothesis test results can be combined with an adaptation's infrastructure costs and damages avoided to provide a rational decision approach in a nonstationary world. The criterion of expected regret is shown to be a useful metric that integrates the statistical, economic, and hydrological aspects of the flood management problem in a nonstationary world.

  7. Chronic alcohol intake during adolescence, but not adulthood, promotes persistent deficits in risk-based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Abigail G; Tsutsui, Kimberly T; Clark, Jeremy J

    2014-06-01

    Adolescent alcohol use is a major public health concern and is strongly correlated with the development of alcohol abuse problems in adulthood. Adolescence is characterized by maturation and remodeling of brain regions implicated in decision making and therefore may be uniquely vulnerable to environmental insults such as alcohol exposure. We have previously demonstrated that voluntary alcohol consumption in adolescence results in maladaptive risk-based decision making in adulthood. However, it is unclear whether this effect on risk-based decision making can be attributed to chronic alcohol use in general or to a selective effect of alcohol use during the adolescent period. Ethanol (EtOH) was presented to adolescent (postnatal day [PND] 30 to 49) and adult rats (PND 80 to 99) for 20 days, either 24 hours or 1 h/d, in a gel matrix consisting of distilled water, gelatin, polycose (10%), and EtOH (10%). The 24-hour time course of EtOH intake was measured and compared between adolescent and adult animals. Following 20 days of withdrawal from EtOH, we assessed risk-based decision making with a concurrent instrumental probability-discounting task. Blood EtOH concentrations (BECs) were taken from trunk blood and assessed using the Analox micro-stat GM7 in separate groups of animals at different time points. Unlike animals exposed to EtOH during adolescence, animals exposed to alcohol during adulthood did not display differences in risk preference compared to controls. Adolescent and adult rats displayed similar EtOH intake levels and patterns when given either 24- or 1-hour access per day. In addition, while both groups reached significant BEC levels, we failed to find a difference between adult and adolescent animals. Here, we show that adolescent, but not adult, EtOH intake leads to a persistent increase in risk preference which cannot be attributed to differences in intake levels or BECs attained. Our findings support previous work implicating adolescence as a time

  8. A risk-based decision-aiding tool for waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiner, R.F.; Reiser, A.S.; Elcock, C.G.; Nevins, S.

    1997-01-01

    N-CART (the National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program Cost Analysis and Risk Tool) is being developed to aid in low-risk, cost-effective, timely management of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and can therefore be used in management of mixed waste. N-CART provides evaluation of multiple alternatives and presents the consequences of proposed waste management activities in a clear and concise format. N-CART's decision-aiding analyses include comparisons and sensitivity analyses of multiple alternatives and allows the user to perform quick turn-around open-quotes what ifclose quotes studies to investigate various scenarios. Uncertainties in data (such as cost and schedule of various activities) are represented as distributions. N-CART centralizes documentation of the bases of program alternatives and program decisions, thereby supporting responses to stakeholders concerns. The initial N-CART design considers regulatory requirements, costs, and schedules for alternative courses of action. The final design will include risks (public health, occupational, economic, scheduling), economic benefits, and the impacts of secondary waste generation. An optimization tool is being incorporated that allows the user to specify the relative importance of cost, time risks, and other bases for decisions. The N-CART prototype can be used to compare the costs and schedules of disposal alternatives for mixed low-level radioactive waste (MLLW) and greater-than-Class-C (GTCC) waste, as well as spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and related scrap material

  9. Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

    1995-01-01

    The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

  10. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    2010-01-01

    by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential...... at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case......Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused...

  11. Neural substrates underlying effort, time, and risk-based decision making in motivated behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Matthew R; Simpson, Eleanor H; Balsam, Peter D

    2016-09-01

    All mobile organisms rely on adaptive motivated behavior to overcome the challenges of living in an environment in which essential resources may be limited. A variety of influences ranging from an organism's environment, experiential history, and physiological state all influence a cost-benefit analysis which allows motivation to energize behavior and direct it toward specific goals. Here we review the substantial amount of research aimed at discovering the interconnected neural circuits which allow organisms to carry-out the cost-benefit computations which allow them to behave in adaptive ways. We specifically focus on how the brain deals with different types of costs, including effort requirements, delays to reward and payoff riskiness. An examination of this broad literature highlights the importance of the extended neural circuits which enable organisms to make decisions about these different types of costs. This involves Cortical Structures, including the Anterior Cingulate Cortex (ACC), the Orbital Frontal Cortex (OFC), the Infralimbic Cortex (IL), and prelimbic Cortex (PL), as well as the Baso-Lateral Amygdala (BLA), the Nucleus Accumbens (NAcc), the Ventral Pallidal (VP), the Sub Thalamic Nucleus (STN) among others. Some regions are involved in multiple aspects of cost-benefit computations while the involvement of other regions is restricted to information relating to specific types of costs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Serotonin and decision making processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homberg, Judith R

    2012-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients. Detailed insight into the serotonergic mechanisms underlying decision making is needed to strengthen the first and weaken the latter. Although much remains to be done to achieve this, accumulating studies begin to deliver a coherent view. Thus, high central 5-HT levels are generally associated with improved reversal learning, improved attentional set shifting, decreased delay discounting, and increased response inhibition, but a failure to use outcome representations. Based on 5-HT's evolutionary role, I hypothesize that 5-HT integrates expected, or changes in, relevant sensory and emotional internal/external information, leading to vigilance behaviour affecting various decision making processes. 5-HT receptor subtypes play distinctive roles in decision making. 5-HT(2A) agonists and 5-HT2c antagonists decrease compulsivity, whereas 5-HT(2A) antagonists and 5-HT(2C) agonists decrease impulsivity. 5-HT(6) antagonists univocally affect decision making processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Use of mass and toxicity balances in risk-based corrective action decisions at contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sevigny, J.H.; Lintott, D.; Wrubleski, R.M.; Drury, C.R.

    1997-01-01

    The contaminated groundwater at a sour gas plant facility was studied to identify the chemicals of environmental concern. Simple mass balance principles were used to determine the proportion of organic carbon, organic nitrogen and Microtox R toxicity that can be attributed to two process chemicals that have contaminated several sour gas plants in western Canada. The two process chemicals are sulfolane and diisopropanolamine (DIPA). The organic carbon balance was calculated by determining the molar contribution of sulfolane and DIPA relative to the mass of carboxylic acid-corrected dissolved organic carbon. Organic carbon balances ranged from 44 to 96 per cent. The organic nitrogen balance was calculated by determining the molar contribution of DIPA relative to the mass of ammonium ion-corrected dissolved Kjeldahl nitrogen. The nitrogen balances were highly variable between 8 to 48 per cent for samples with organic nitrogen concentrations between 10 and 32 mg/L. The Microtox R toxicity balance was calculated by determining the proportions of toxicity that could be accounted for by pure phase sulfolane and DIPA. The Microtox R toxicity balance for samples that showed significant toxicity ranged from 71 to 122 per cent

  14. Use of mass and toxicity balances in risk-based corrective action decisions at contaminated sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sevigny, J.H. [Komex Consultants Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Lintott, D. [HydroQual Consultants, Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada); Wrubleski, R.M.; Drury, C.R. [Shell Canada Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada). Calgary Research Centre

    1997-12-31

    The contaminated groundwater at a sour gas plant facility was studied to identify the chemicals of environmental concern. Simple mass balance principles were used to determine the proportion of organic carbon, organic nitrogen and Microtox{sup R} toxicity that can be attributed to two process chemicals that have contaminated several sour gas plants in western Canada. The two process chemicals are sulfolane and diisopropanolamine (DIPA). The organic carbon balance was calculated by determining the molar contribution of sulfolane and DIPA relative to the mass of carboxylic acid-corrected dissolved organic carbon. Organic carbon balances ranged from 44 to 96 per cent. The organic nitrogen balance was calculated by determining the molar contribution of DIPA relative to the mass of ammonium ion-corrected dissolved Kjeldahl nitrogen. The nitrogen balances were highly variable between 8 to 48 per cent for samples with organic nitrogen concentrations between 10 and 32 mg/L. The Microtox{sup R} toxicity balance was calculated by determining the proportions of toxicity that could be accounted for by pure phase sulfolane and DIPA. The Microtox{sup R} toxicity balance for samples that showed significant toxicity ranged from 71 to 122 per cent.

  15. Markov Decision Processes in Practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boucherie, Richardus J.; van Dijk, N.M.

    2017-01-01

    It is over 30 years ago since D.J. White started his series of surveys on practical applications of Markov decision processes (MDP), over 20 years after the phenomenal book by Martin Puterman on the theory of MDP, and over 10 years since Eugene A. Feinberg and Adam Shwartz published their Handbook

  16. Markov Decision Process Measurement Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaMar, Michelle M

    2018-03-01

    Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.

  17. Decision process for Hanford sitewide groundwater remediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1996-06-01

    This document describes a decision process for planning future investigations and remediating contaminated groundwater at the Hanford Site in Richland, Washington. This decision process details the following: identifies key decisions and activities; defines the criteria used in making each decision; and defines the logic that links the decisions and the activities in a stepwise manner

  18. Risk-based Process Development of Biosimilars as Part of the Quality by Design Paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalai, Dénes; Dietzsch, Christian; Herwig, Christoph

    2013-01-01

    In the last few years, several quality by design (QbD) studies demonstrated the benefit of systematic approaches for biopharmaceutical development. However, only very few studies identified biosimilars as a special case of product development. The targeted quality profile of biosimilars is strictly defined by the originator's product characteristic. Moreover, the major source of prior knowledge is the experience with the originator product itself. Processing this information in biosimilar development has a major effect on risk management and process development strategies. The main objective of this contribution is to demonstrate how risk management can facilitate the implementation of QbD in early-stage product development with special emphasis on fitting the reported approaches to biosimilars. Risk assessments were highlighted as important tools to integrate prior knowledge in biosimilar development. The risk assessment process as suggested by the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH Q9) was reviewed and three elements were identified to play a key role in targeted risk assessment approaches: proper understanding of target linkage, risk assessment tool compliance, and criticality threshold value. Adjusting these steps to biosimilar applications helped to address some unique challenges of these products such as a strictly defined quality profile or a lack of process knowledge. This contribution demonstrates the need for tailored risk management approaches for the risk-based development of biosimilars and provides novel tools for the integration of additional knowledge available for these products. The pharmaceutical industry is facing challenges such as profit loss and price competition. Companies are forced to rationalize business models and to cut costs in development as well as manufacturing. These trends recently hinder the implementation of any concepts that do not offer certain financial benefit or promise a long return of investment. Quality by

  19. 32 CFR 865.110 - Decision process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Decision process. 865.110 Section 865.110...-GENERAL PERSONNEL REVIEW BOARDS Air Force Discharge Review Board § 865.110 Decision process. (a) The DRB... decision making process. ...

  20. Serotonin and decision making processes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homberg, J.R.

    2012-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients.

  1. A risk-based focused decision-management approach for justifying characterization of Hanford tank waste. June 1996, Revision 1; April 1997, Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colson, S.D.; Gephart, R.E.; Hunter, V.L.; Janata, J.; Morgan, L.G.

    1997-12-31

    This report describes a disciplined, risk-based decision-making approach for determining characterization needs and resolving safety issues during the storage and remediation of radioactive waste stored in Hanford tanks. The strategy recommended uses interactive problem evaluation and decision analysis methods commonly used in industry to solve problems under conditions of uncertainty (i.e., lack of perfect knowledge). It acknowledges that problem resolution comes through both the application of high-quality science and human decisions based upon preferences and sometimes hard-to-compare choices. It recognizes that to firmly resolve a safety problem, the controlling waste characteristics and chemical phenomena must be measurable or estimated to an acceptable level of confidence tailored to the decision being made.

  2. A risk-based focused decision-management approach for justifying characterization of Hanford tank waste. June 1996, Revision 1; April 1997, Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colson, S.D.; Gephart, R.E.; Hunter, V.L.; Janata, J.; Morgan, L.G.

    1997-01-01

    This report describes a disciplined, risk-based decision-making approach for determining characterization needs and resolving safety issues during the storage and remediation of radioactive waste stored in Hanford tanks. The strategy recommended uses interactive problem evaluation and decision analysis methods commonly used in industry to solve problems under conditions of uncertainty (i.e., lack of perfect knowledge). It acknowledges that problem resolution comes through both the application of high-quality science and human decisions based upon preferences and sometimes hard-to-compare choices. It recognizes that to firmly resolve a safety problem, the controlling waste characteristics and chemical phenomena must be measurable or estimated to an acceptable level of confidence tailored to the decision being made

  3. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakzad, Nima; Reniers, Genserik

    2015-12-15

    Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. When Family Considerations Influence Work Decisions: Decision-Making Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Gary N.; Greenhaus, Jeffrey H.

    2012-01-01

    The work-family literature has provided an abundance of evidence that various family factors are linked to various work decisions, suggesting that the "family-relatedness" of work decisions is a prevalent phenomenon (Greenhaus & Powell, 2012). However, the cognitive processes by which such linkages occur have received little attention. We offer a…

  5. Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P

    2015-12-15

    A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions.

  6. Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P.

    2015-01-01

    A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions. PMID:26666393

  7. Soils Project Risk-Based Corrective Action Evaluation Process with ROTC 1 and ROTC 2, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, Patrick; Sloop, Christina

    2012-04-01

    This document formally defines and clarifies the NDEP-approved process the NNSA/NSO Soils Activity uses to fulfill the requirements of the FFACO and state regulations. This process is used to establish FALs in accordance with the risk-based corrective action (RBCA) process stipulated in Chapter 445 of the Nevada Administrative Code (NAC) as described in the ASTM International (ASTM) Method E1739-95 (NAC, 2008; ASTM, 1995). It is designed to provide a set of consistent standards for chemical and radiological corrective actions.

  8. Behavioural Decision Making and Suggestional Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Molz, Günter

    2001-01-01

    Common features between the domains of behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are discussed. These features are allocated in two aspects. First, behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are traditionally considered to provoke inadequate human behaviour. In this article arguments are put forward against this interpretation: Actions induced by non-rational decisions and / or by suggestional processes often have adaptive functions. Second, two common themat...

  9. Cognitive processes in anesthesiology decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiegler, Marjorie Podraza; Tung, Avery

    2014-01-01

    The quality and safety of health care are under increasing scrutiny. Recent studies suggest that medical errors, practice variability, and guideline noncompliance are common, and that cognitive error contributes significantly to delayed or incorrect diagnoses. These observations have increased interest in understanding decision-making psychology.Many nonrational (i.e., not purely based in statistics) cognitive factors influence medical decisions and may lead to error. The most well-studied include heuristics, preferences for certainty, overconfidence, affective (emotional) influences, memory distortions, bias, and social forces such as fairness or blame.Although the extent to which such cognitive processes play a role in anesthesia practice is unknown, anesthesia care frequently requires rapid, complex decisions that are most susceptible to decision errors. This review will examine current theories of human decision behavior, identify effects of nonrational cognitive processes on decision making, describe characteristic anesthesia decisions in this context, and suggest strategies to improve decision making.

  10. Processing Information in Quantum Decision Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.

    2008-01-01

    A survey is given summarizing the state of the art of describing information processing in Quantum Decision Theory, which has been recently advanced as a novel variant of decision making, based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intended actions. The theory characterizes entangled decision making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention int...

  11. Assessments of risk indices and decision-making support within risk based land management and sustainable rehabilitation of radioactive contaminated territories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yatsalo, B.; Didenko, V.; Golikov, V.

    2002-01-01

    Description of the applied Geoinformation Decision-Support System PRANA for risk based land management and rehabilitation of territories of Bryansk region (Russia), subjected to radioactive contamination as a result of the Chernobyl accident, is presented. The main blocks of PRANA DSS, including electronic maps, databases and models are described. Implementation of vector land use map with corresponding integration of different models allows integrating both local and regional level of analysis and practical implementation (from each field and settlement up to farm and district and regional levels). Some examples of model assessments (map of countermeasures and doses) are presented

  12. Visual histories of decision processes for collaborative decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Kozlova, Karine

    2016-01-01

    Remembering, understanding and reconstructing past activities is a necessary part of any learning, sense-making or decision making process. It is also essential for any collaborative activity. This dissertation investigates the design and evaluation of systems to support decision remembering, understanding and reconstruction by groups and individuals. By conducting three qualitative case studies of small professional groups, we identify the critical activities where history functionality is n...

  13. Identifying knowledge in decision-making processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anna Rose Vagn; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2010-01-01

    Managing knowledge reflects the innovation capability of a company. Mapping decision processes and links to knowledge is a way to learn more in structuring knowledge in innovation processes. Through an empirical study the paper aims to identify knowledge...

  14. Decision Processes in Eyewitness Identification

    OpenAIRE

    Moreland, Molly Bettis

    2015-01-01

    The dominant theory of decision-making in eyewitness identification, based on a distinction between absolute and relative judgments, assumes that relative judgments (identifying the best match relative to the other lineup members) increases identification errors (Wells, 1984). This distinction also assumes that comparisons among lineup members underlying relative judgments increases errors, as evidenced by the sequential lineup advantage (Lindsay & Wells, 1985). Sequential lineups preclude co...

  15. Risk-based consequences of extreme natural hazard processes in mountain regions - Multi-hazard analysis in Tyrol (Austria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Stötter, Johann

    2010-05-01

    Reinsurance companies are stating a high increase in natural hazard related losses, both insured and economic losses, within the last decades on a global scale. This ongoing trend can be described as a product of the dynamic in the natural and in the anthroposphere. To analyze the potential impact of natural hazard process to a certain insurance portfolio or to the society in general, reinsurance companies or risk management consultants have developed loss models. However, those models are generally not fitting the scale dependent demand on regional scales like it is appropriate (i) for analyses on the scale of a specific province or (ii) for portfolio analyses of regional insurance companies. Moreover, the scientific basis of most of the models is not transparent documented and therefore scientific evaluations concerning the methodology concepts are not possible (black box). This is contrary to the scientific principles of transparency and traceability. Especially in mountain regions like the European Alps with their inherent (i) specific characteristic on small scales, (ii) the relative high process dynamics in general, (iii) the occurrence of gravitative mass movements which are related to high relief energy and thus only exists in mountain regions, (iv) the small proportion of the area of permanent settlement on the overall area, (v) the high value concentration in the valley floors, (vi) the exposition of important infrastructures and lifelines, and others, analyses must consider these circumstances adequately. Therefore, risk-based analyses are methodically estimating the potential consequences of hazard process on the built environment standardized with the risk components (i) hazard, (ii) elements at risk, and (iii) vulnerability. However, most research and progress have been made in the field of hazard analyses, whereas the other both components are not developed accordingly. Since these three general components are influencing factors without any

  16. A step towards risk-based decision support for ships - Evaluation of limit states using parallel system analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2009-01-01

    Onboard decision support systems (DSS) are used to increase the operational safety of ships. Ideally, DSS can estimate future ship responses within a time scale of the order of 1–3 h taking into account speed and course changes, assuming stationary sea states. In principle, the calculations depen...

  17. Decision process simulation in training systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zajtsev, K.S.; Serov, A.A.; Ajnutdinov, V.A.

    1984-01-01

    One of the approaches to arrangement of training process an automated trainning systems (ATS) based on actjve use of knowledge of experienced operators is presented. Problems of mathematical model simulatjon of decision process by people not having special knowledge in mathematics are considered. A language of solution tables based on indistinct tables is suggested to the used as a simulation language. The problem of automation of decision process simulation in ATS is solued

  18. Modeling as a Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleiler-Baxter, Sarah K.; Stephens, D. Christopher; Baxter, Wesley A.; Barlow, Angela T.

    2017-01-01

    The goal in this article is to support teachers in better understanding what it means to model with mathematics by focusing on three key decision-making processes: Simplification, Relationship Mapping, and Situation Analysis. The authors use the Theme Park task to help teachers develop a vision of how students engage in these three decision-making…

  19. Motivated information processing and group decision refusal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijstad, Bernard A.; Oltmanns, Jan

    Group decision making has attracted much scientific interest, but few studies have investigated group decisions that do not get made. Based on the Motivated Information Processing in Groups model, this study analysed the effect of epistemic motivation (low vs. high) and social motivation (proself

  20. 43 CFR 36.7 - Decision process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... so notify the applicant in writing. (2) Each appropriate Federal agency in making its decision shall... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Decision process. 36.7 Section 36.7 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITY SYSTEMS IN AND ACROSS...

  1. Corporate Choice of Banks: Decision Factors, Decision Maker, and Decision Process – First Evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ongena, S.; Tumer Alkan, G.; Vermeer, B.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate how firms choose their banks. We focus on the role played by the decision factors, the decision maker and the decision process in determining firm-bank relationships. We have access to a unique survey that was run by a major bank in the Czech Republic. We find that

  2. Nonrational processes in ethical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogerson, Mark D; Gottlieb, Michael C; Handelsman, Mitchell M; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

    2011-10-01

    Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasilegal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior, including context, perceptions, relationships, emotions, and heuristics. For example, a large body of behavioral research has demonstrated the importance of automatic intuitive and affective processes in decision making and judgment. These processes profoundly affect human behavior and lead to systematic biases and departures from normative theories of rationality. Their influence represents an important but largely unrecognized component of ethical decision making. We selectively review this work; provide various illustrations; and make recommendations for scientists, trainers, and practitioners to aid them in integrating the understanding of nonrational processes with ethical decision making.

  3. Multi-site risk-based project planning, optimization, sequencing, & budgeting process and tool for the integrated facility disposition project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, J.G.; Castillo, C.; Huntsman, J.; Killoy, S.; Lucek, H.; Marks, T.C.

    2011-01-01

    Faced with the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex Transformation, National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) was tasked with developing an integrated plan for the decommissioning of over 400 facilities and 300 environmental remediation units, as well as the many reconfiguration and modernization projects at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Y-12 Complex. Manual scheduling of remediation activities is time-consuming and inherently introduces bias of the scheduler or organization into the process. Clearly a well-defined process, quantitative risk-based tool was needed to develop an objective, unbiased baseline sequence and schedule with a sound technical foundation for the Integrated Facility Disposition Project (IFDP). Faced with limited available data, innovation was needed to extrapolate intelligent relative data for key risk parameters based on known data elements. The IFDP Supermodel was customized and expanded to provide this capability for conceptual planning of diverse project portfolios and multiple sites. (author)

  4. Risk-based design of process systems using discrete-time Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Temporal Bayesian networks have gained popularity as a robust technique to model dynamic systems in which the components' sequential dependency, as well as their functional dependency, cannot be ignored. In this regard, discrete-time Bayesian networks have been proposed as a viable alternative to solve dynamic fault trees without resort to Markov chains. This approach overcomes the drawbacks of Markov chains such as the state-space explosion and the error-prone conversion procedure from dynamic fault tree. It also benefits from the inherent advantages of Bayesian networks such as probability updating. However, effective mapping of the dynamic gates of dynamic fault trees into Bayesian networks while avoiding the consequent huge multi-dimensional probability tables has always been a matter of concern. In this paper, a new general formalism has been developed to model two important elements of dynamic fault tree, i.e., cold spare gate and sequential enforcing gate, with any arbitrary probability distribution functions. Also, an innovative Neutral Dependency algorithm has been introduced to model dynamic gates such as priority-AND gate, thus reducing the dimension of conditional probability tables by an order of magnitude. The second part of the paper is devoted to the application of discrete-time Bayesian networks in the risk assessment and safety analysis of complex process systems. It has been shown how dynamic techniques can effectively be applied for optimal allocation of safety systems to obtain maximum risk reduction.

  5. Risk-Based Disposal Plan for PCB Paint in the TRA Fluorinel Dissolution Process Mockup and Gamma Facilities Canal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. A. Montgomery

    2008-05-01

    This Toxic Substances Control Act Risk-Based Polychlorinated Biphenyl Disposal plan was developed for the Test Reactor Area Fluorinel Dissolution Process Mockup and Gamma Facilities Waste System, located in Building TRA-641 at the Reactor Technology Complex, Idaho National Laboratory Site, to address painted surfaces in the empty canal under 40 CFR 761.62(c) for paint, and under 40 CFR 761.61(c) for PCBs that may have penetrated into the concrete. The canal walls and floor will be painted with two coats of contrasting non-PCB paint and labeled as PCB. The canal is covered with open decking; the access grate is locked shut and signed to indicate PCB contamination in the canal. Access to the canal will require facility manager permission. Protective equipment for personnel and equipment entering the canal will be required. Waste from the canal, generated during ultimate Decontamination and Decommissioning, shall be managed and disposed as PCB Bulk Product Waste.

  6. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  7. Modeling approaches for characterizing and evaluating environmental exposure to engineered nanomaterials in support of risk-based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Lowry, Michael; Grieger, Khara D; Money, Eric S; Johnston, John M; Wiesner, Mark R; Beaulieu, Stephen M

    2013-02-05

    As the use of engineered nanomaterials becomes more prevalent, the likelihood of unintended exposure to these materials also increases. Given the current scarcity of experimental data regarding fate, transport, and bioavailability, determining potential environmental exposure to these materials requires an in depth analysis of modeling techniques that can be used in both the near- and long-term. Here, we provide a critical review of traditional and emerging exposure modeling approaches to highlight the challenges that scientists and decision-makers face when developing environmental exposure and risk assessments for nanomaterials. We find that accounting for nanospecific properties, overcoming data gaps, realizing model limitations, and handling uncertainty are key to developing informative and reliable environmental exposure and risk assessments for engineered nanomaterials. We find methods suited to recognizing and addressing significant uncertainty to be most appropriate for near-term environmental exposure modeling, given the current state of information and the current insufficiency of established deterministic models to address environmental exposure to engineered nanomaterials.

  8. Risk-based Strategy to Determine Testing Requirement for the Removal of Residual Process Reagents as Process-related Impurities in Bioprocesses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Jinshu; Li, Kim; Miller, Karen; Raghani, Anil

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to recommend a risk-based strategy for determining clearance testing requirements of the process reagents used in manufacturing biopharmaceutical products. The strategy takes account of four risk factors. Firstly, the process reagents are classified into two categories according to their safety profile and history of use: generally recognized as safe (GRAS) and potential safety concern (PSC) reagents. The clearance testing of GRAS reagents can be eliminated because of their safe use historically and process capability to remove these reagents. An estimated safety margin (Se) value, a ratio of the exposure limit to the estimated maximum reagent amount, is then used to evaluate the necessity for testing the PSC reagents at an early development stage. The Se value is calculated from two risk factors, the starting PSC reagent amount per maximum product dose (Me), and the exposure limit (Le). A worst-case scenario is assumed to estimate the Me value, that is common. The PSC reagent of interest is co-purified with the product and no clearance occurs throughout the entire purification process. No clearance testing is required for this PSC reagent if its Se value is ≥1; otherwise clearance testing is needed. Finally, the point of the process reagent introduction to the process is also considered in determining the necessity of the clearance testing for process reagents. How to use the measured safety margin as a criterion for determining PSC reagent testing at process characterization, process validation, and commercial production stages are also described. A large number of process reagents are used in the biopharmaceutical manufacturing to control the process performance. Clearance testing for all of the process reagents will be an enormous analytical task. In this article, a risk-based strategy is described to eliminate unnecessary clearance testing for majority of the process reagents using four risk factors. The risk factors included

  9. Risk-based analysis for prioritization and processing in the Los Alamos National Laboratory 94-1 program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boerigter, S.T.; DeMuth, N.S.; Tietjen, G.

    1996-10-01

    A previous report, open-quotes Analysis of LANL Options for Processing Plutonium Legacy Materials,close quotes LA-UR-95-4301, summarized the development of a risk-based prioritization methodology for the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Plutonium Facility at Technical Area-55 (TA-55). The methodology described in that report was developed not only to assist processing personnel in prioritizing the remediation of legacy materials but also to evaluate the risk impacts of schedule modifications and changes. Several key activities were undertaken in the development of that methodology. The most notable was that the risk assessments were based on statistically developed data from sampling containers in the vault and evaluating their condition; the data from the vault sampling programs were used as the basis for risk estimates. Also, the time-dependent behavior of the legacy materials was explicitly modeled and included in the risk analysis. The results indicated that significant reductions in program risk can be achieved by proper prioritization of the materials for processing

  10. AN EXTENDED REINFORCEMENT LEARNING MODEL OF BASAL GANGLIA TO UNDERSTAND THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF SEROTONIN AND DOPAMINE IN RISK-BASED DECISION MAKING, REWARD PREDICTION, AND PUNISHMENT LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pragathi Priyadharsini Balasubramani

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Although empirical and neural studies show that serotonin (5HT plays many functional roles in the brain, prior computational models mostly focus on its role in behavioral inhibition. In this study, we present a model of risk based decision making in a modified Reinforcement Learning (RL-framework. The model depicts the roles of dopamine (DA and serotonin (5HT in Basal Ganglia (BG. In this model, the DA signal is represented by the temporal difference error (δ, while the 5HT signal is represented by a parameter (α that controls risk prediction error. This formulation that accommodates both 5HT and DA reconciles some of the diverse roles of 5HT particularly in connection with the BG system. We apply the model to different experimental paradigms used to study the role of 5HT: 1 Risk-sensitive decision making, where 5HT controls risk assessment, 2 Temporal reward prediction, where 5HT controls time-scale of reward prediction, and 3 Reward/Punishment sensitivity, in which the punishment prediction error depends on 5HT levels. Thus the proposed integrated RL model reconciles several existing theories of 5HT and DA in the BG.

  11. Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

    1985-09-01

    The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

  12. A completely new design and regulatory process - A risk-based approach for new nuclear power plants. Annex 17

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2002-01-01

    In the de-regulated electric power market place that is developing in the USA, competition from alternative electric power sources has provided significant downward pressure on the costs of new construction projects. Studies by the Electric Power Research Institute have shown that, in the USA, the capital cost of new nuclear plants must be decreased by at least 35% to 40% relative to the cost of Advanced Light Water Reactors designed in the early 1990s in order to be competitive with capital costs of gas-fired electric power plants. The underlying reasons for the high capital costs estimated for some nuclear plants are (1) long construction times, (2) the high level of 'defense-in-depth' or safety margin, included throughout the design and licensing process, and (3) the use of out-dated design methods and information. Probabilistic Safety Assessments are being used to develop a more accurate assessment of real plant risk and to provide relief if it can be demonstrated that plant equipment is not providing a significant contribution to plant safety. Westinghouse addressed some of these cost drivers in the development of the AP-600 passive plant design. However, because of relatively inexpensive natural gas plant alternative, we need to reduce the costs even further. Therefore, the AP-600 design is now being up-rated to a 1000 MWe design, AP-1000. The development of AP1000 is described in another paper being presented at this meeting. Westinghouse is also managing a project, sponsored by the US Department of Energy, which is aimed at developing an all-new 'risk-based' approach to design and regulation. Methodologies being developed use risk-based information to the extent practical and 'defense-in-depth' only when necessary to address uncertainties in models and equipment performance. Early results, summarized in this paper, include (1) the initial framework for a new design and regulatory process and (2) a sample design analysis which shows that the Emergency Core

  13. Nonrational Processes in Ethical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogerson, Mark D.; Gottlieb, Michael C.; Handelsman, Mitchell M.; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

    2011-01-01

    Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasi-legal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior,…

  14. Working memory retrieval as a decision process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Benjamin; Raskevicius, Julius; Bays, Paul M; Pertzov, Yoni; Husain, Masud

    2014-02-03

    Working memory (WM) is a core cognitive process fundamental to human behavior, yet the mechanisms underlying it remain highly controversial. Here we provide a new framework for understanding retrieval of information from WM, conceptualizing it as a decision based on the quality of internal evidence. Recent findings have demonstrated that precision of WM decreases with memory load. If WM retrieval uses a decision process that depends on memory quality, systematic changes in response time distribution should occur as a function of WM precision. We asked participants to view sample arrays and, after a delay, report the direction of change in location or orientation of a probe. As WM precision deteriorated with increasing memory load, retrieval time increased systematically. Crucially, the shape of reaction time distributions was consistent with a linear accumulator decision process. Varying either task relevance of items or maintenance duration influenced memory precision, with corresponding shifts in retrieval time. These results provide strong support for a decision-making account of WM retrieval based on noisy storage of items. Furthermore, they show that encoding, maintenance, and retrieval in WM need not be considered as separate processes, but may instead be conceptually unified as operations on the same noise-limited, neural representation.

  15. Comparison of risk-based decision-support systems for brownfield site rehabilitation: DESYRE and SADA applied to a Romanian case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stezar, I C; Pizzol, L; Critto, A; Ozunu, A; Marcomini, A

    2013-12-15

    Brownfield rehabilitation is an essential step for sustainable land-use planning and management in the European Union. In brownfield regeneration processes, the legacy contamination plays a significant role, firstly because of the persistent contaminants in soil or groundwater which extends the existing hazards and risks well into the future; and secondly, problems from historical contamination are often more difficult to manage than contamination caused by new activities. Due to the complexity associated with the management of brownfield site rehabilitation, Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been developed to support problem holders and stakeholders in the decision-making process encompassing all phases of the rehabilitation. This paper presents a comparative study between two DSSs, namely SADA (Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance) and DESYRE (Decision Support System for the Requalification of Contaminated Sites), with the main objective of showing the benefits of using DSSs to introduce and process data and then to disseminate results to different stakeholders involved in the decision-making process. For this purpose, a former car manufacturing plant located in the Brasov area, Central Romania, contaminated chiefly by heavy metals and total petroleum hydrocarbons, has been selected as a case study to apply the two examined DSSs. Major results presented here concern the analysis of the functionalities of the two DSSs in order to identify similarities, differences and complementarities and, thus, to provide an indication of the most suitable integration options. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Markov decision processes in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Sigaud, Olivier

    2013-01-01

    Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a mathematical framework for modeling sequential decision problems under uncertainty as well as Reinforcement Learning problems. Written by experts in the field, this book provides a global view of current research using MDPs in Artificial Intelligence. It starts with an introductory presentation of the fundamental aspects of MDPs (planning in MDPs, Reinforcement Learning, Partially Observable MDPs, Markov games and the use of non-classical criteria). Then it presents more advanced research trends in the domain and gives some concrete examples using illustr

  17. A meaning for transparency in decision processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wene, C.O. [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Energy System Technology; Espejo, R. [Univ. of Lincolnshire and Humberside, Lincoln (United Kingdom). Lincoln School of Management

    1999-12-01

    In this paper we discuss transparency in decision processes. We argue that transparency requires fostering, producing and maintaining distributed dialogues and communications between all those affected by (the stakeholders) and those producing these decisions (the decision makers and the actors/experts). The issues raised in these dialogues will not only refer to questions of technical efficiency, but also to what is right and fair and what is considered to be good in society. Social policies, particularly those of wide social significance, are in one form or another the outcome of multiple meaning creation processes, reflecting their multiple spheres of influence, from the local to the global, from the disciplinary to the multi- and transdisciplinary. Each of these processes requires transparency. This paper is focused on the structural requirements to make these dialogues and communications effective at all levels, taking into account the need for technical explanation, proof of authenticity and legitimacy of actions. Moreover it is concerned with the alignment of these meanings creation processes in order to increase the chances of having not only a distributed but also a coherent overall decision process. Our emphasis is in defining forms of interaction among stakeholders in order to ground the debate of the policy throughout the organisation, beyond senior levels of management. The aim is increasing the demands on those responsible for policy implementation, stretching them so that they offer the best of themselves. We argue that this is the basis for a structural mechanism for transparency. The outcome of this paper is a conceptual framework to study issues of transparency in policy making which is illustrated with reference to nuclear waste management in Sweden.

  18. A meaning for transparency in decision processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wene, C.O.; Espejo, R.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we discuss transparency in decision processes. We argue that transparency requires fostering, producing and maintaining distributed dialogues and communications between all those affected by (the stakeholders) and those producing these decisions (the decision makers and the actors/experts). The issues raised in these dialogues will not only refer to questions of technical efficiency, but also to what is right and fair and what is considered to be good in society. Social policies, particularly those of wide social significance, are in one form or another the outcome of multiple meaning creation processes, reflecting their multiple spheres of influence, from the local to the global, from the disciplinary to the multi- and transdisciplinary. Each of these processes requires transparency. This paper is focused on the structural requirements to make these dialogues and communications effective at all levels, taking into account the need for technical explanation, proof of authenticity and legitimacy of actions. Moreover it is concerned with the alignment of these meanings creation processes in order to increase the chances of having not only a distributed but also a coherent overall decision process. Our emphasis is in defining forms of interaction among stakeholders in order to ground the debate of the policy throughout the organisation, beyond senior levels of management. The aim is increasing the demands on those responsible for policy implementation, stretching them so that they offer the best of themselves. We argue that this is the basis for a structural mechanism for transparency. The outcome of this paper is a conceptual framework to study issues of transparency in policy making which is illustrated with reference to nuclear waste management in Sweden

  19. Information processing in decision-making systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Meer, Matthijs; Kurth-Nelson, Zeb; Redish, A David

    2012-08-01

    Decisions result from an interaction between multiple functional systems acting in parallel to process information in very different ways, each with strengths and weaknesses. In this review, the authors address three action-selection components of decision-making: The Pavlovian system releases an action from a limited repertoire of potential actions, such as approaching learned stimuli. Like the Pavlovian system, the habit system is computationally fast but, unlike the Pavlovian system permits arbitrary stimulus-action pairings. These associations are a "forward'' mechanism; when a situation is recognized, the action is released. In contrast, the deliberative system is flexible but takes time to process. The deliberative system uses knowledge of the causal structure of the world to search into the future, planning actions to maximize expected rewards. Deliberation depends on the ability to imagine future possibilities, including novel situations, and it allows decisions to be taken without having previously experienced the options. Various anatomical structures have been identified that carry out the information processing of each of these systems: hippocampus constitutes a map of the world that can be used for searching/imagining the future; dorsal striatal neurons represent situation-action associations; and ventral striatum maintains value representations for all three systems. Each system presents vulnerabilities to pathologies that can manifest as psychiatric disorders. Understanding these systems and their relation to neuroanatomy opens up a deeper way to treat the structural problems underlying various disorders.

  20. Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

    1985-09-01

    The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

  1. Motivated information processing and group decision-making : Effects of process accountability on information processing and decision quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholten, Lotte; van Knippenberg, Daan; Nijstad, Bernard A.; De Dreu, Carsten K. W.

    Integrating dual-process models [Chaiken, S., & Trope, Y. (Eds.). (1999). Dual-process theories in social psychology. NewYork: Guilford Press] with work on information sharing and group decision-making [Stasser, G., & Titus, W. (1985). Pooling of unshared information in group decision making: biased

  2. Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P.

    2015-01-01

    A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a funct...

  3. Integrated Dialogue System for Spatial Decision Process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishiyama, Yumi; Fukui, Hiromichi; Kaneyasu, Iwao; Nagasaka, Toshinari; Usuda, Yuichiro; Sakamoto, Ai; Kusafuka, Minako

    2003-01-01

    The disposal of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) is a difficult challenge for all countries that uses nuclear energy. In Japan, an implementing agency for HLW was authorized in 2001, and now seeking for municipalities that voluntarily apply to be a preliminary investigation area for a final disposal site. Along with these policy progresses, the HLW disposal program has been gaining social attentions. This leads to high demand for a systematic process for evaluating the proposed policy and environmental impact of geological disposal so that policy decisions can adequately address technical, ethical, and social considerations. As a step toward this objective, we have developed a participatory decision support system on the web. Web-based communication is in its infancy but may be viable support tool to engage different people. Through the study, we aimed to examine the possibility of web-based dialogue system for spatial decision process. One conclusion from the web-based dialogue is that it is possible to create a working environment on the web within those who have different backgrounds and interests. From the results, we found many findings that should be taken into account for further development. One is the need to re-construct the data, model imagery and opinions to judge the problem objectively. We will reexamine the contents based on the international activities so that participants can understand what the information means in the context. Facilitation is key element on the web, also. He or she is expected to make the atmosphere where even those who don't have high-level knowledge can participate in and arouse their opinion from the faceless communication. In the point, the auto navigation comes in very useful

  4. 44 CFR 9.6 - Decision-making process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Decision-making process. 9.6... HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT AND PROTECTION OF WETLANDS § 9.6 Decision-making process... protection decision-making process to be followed by the Agency in applying the Orders to its actions. While...

  5. Legal process, litigation, and judicial decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beresford, H Richard

    2013-01-01

    Ethically salient issues in neurologic care may have important legal overtones. This chapter considers some of these, emphasizing how law may influence the outcome of controversies over how best to promote autonomy, beneficence, and justice in the care of individuals with neurologic disorders. Constitutional, statutory, and judicial dimensions are addressed. With respect to autonomy, discussion emphasizes legal dimensions of the doctrine of informed consent and the obligations of medical professionals to protect the privacy and confidentiality of their patients. The discussion of beneficence focuses on issues relating to actual or potential conflicts of interest in the care of patients and on the conduct of research involving human subjects. The section on justice considers how law aims to define protectable rights and interests of individuals and to provide a fair and efficient process for resolving disputes. Applications of legal principles and doctrines are illustrated primarily through the examples afforded by judicial decisions. These cases demonstrate how law both promotes ethical decision-making and protects the rights and interests of those affected. The cases also highlight some of the ethical quandaries that evoke resort to litigation and the limits of law in advancing ethically appropriate outcomes. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mostert, P.; Kok, P.; Lange, F.P. de

    2015-01-01

    A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying

  7. Learning Markov Decision Processes for Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mao, Hua; Chen, Yingke; Jaeger, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    . The proposed learning algorithm is adapted from algorithms for learning deterministic probabilistic finite automata, and extended to include both probabilistic and nondeterministic transitions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed and evaluated by learning system models of slot machines. The evaluation......Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming, algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on observed system behaviors. In this paper we extend the algorithm...... on learning probabilistic automata to reactive systems, where the observed system behavior is in the form of alternating sequences of inputs and outputs. We propose an algorithm for automatically learning a deterministic labeled Markov decision process model from the observed behavior of a reactive system...

  8. Influence of information on behavioral effects in decision processes

    OpenAIRE

    Angelarosa Longo; Viviana Ventre

    2015-01-01

    Rational models in decision processes are marked out by many anomalies, caused by behavioral issues. We point out the importance of information in causing inconsistent preferences in a decision process. In a single or multi agent decision process each mental model is influenced by the presence, the absence or false information about the problem or about other members of the decision making group. The difficulty in modeling these effects increases because behavioral biases influence also the m...

  9. The decision-making process between rationality and emotions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alvino, Letizia; Franco, Massimo

    2017-01-01

    The decision-making process has been analyzed in several disciplines (economics, social sciences, humanities, etc.) with the aim of creating models to help decision-makers in strategy formulation. The Organizational theory takes into account both the decision-making process of individuals and groups

  10. 24 CFR 55.20 - Decision making process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Decision making process. 55.20 Section 55.20 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT Procedures for Making Determinations on Floodplain Management § 55.20 Decision making process. The decision making...

  11. Information Systems to Support a Decision Process at Stanford.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaffee, Ellen Earle

    1982-01-01

    When a rational decision process is desired, information specialists can contribute information and also contribute to the process in which that information is used, thereby promoting rational decision-making. The contribution of Stanford's information specialists to rational decision-making is described. (MLW)

  12. How Critical Thinking Shapes the Military Decision Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-05-17

    emotional rebuttal. Conversely, people cannot make good rational decisions without at least a twinge of emotion attached to the decision . 2) Our minds... decision they make . If emotions overwhelm reason, then decisions should be postponed.27 Service biases are one of the strongest emotional bias. Any...FINAL 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE How Critical Thinking Shapes the Military Decision Making Process 5a. CONTRACT

  13. Influence of information on behavioral effects in decision processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelarosa Longo

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Rational models in decision processes are marked out by many anomalies, caused by behavioral issues. We point out the importance of information in causing inconsistent preferences in a decision process. In a single or multi agent decision process each mental model is influenced by the presence, the absence or false information about the problem or about other members of the decision making group. The difficulty in modeling these effects increases because behavioral biases influence also the modeler. Behavioral Operational Research (BOR studies these influences to create efficient models to define choices in similar decision processes.

  14. The contribution of science to risk-based decision-making: lessons from the development of full-scale treatment measures for acidic mine waters at Wheal Jane, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Younger, Paul L; Coulton, Richard H; Froggatt, Eric C

    2005-02-01

    The use of risk-based decision-making in environmental management is often assumed to rely primarily on the availability of robust scientific data and insights, while in practice socio-economic criteria are often of considerable importance. However, the relative contributions to decision-making made by scientific and socio-economic inputs are rarely assessed, and even less commonly reported. Such an assessment has been made for a major remediation project in southwest England, in which some 300 l/s of highly acidic, metalliferous mine waters are now being treated using oxidation and chemical neutralisation. In the process of reaching the decision to commission the treatment plant, a wide range of scientific studies were undertaken, including: biological impact assessments, hydrogeological investigations of the effect of pumping on the flooded mine system, and hydrological and geochemical characterisation, together with integrated catchment modelling, of pollutant sources and pathways. These investigations revealed that, despite the spectacular nature of the original mine water outburst in 1992, the ecology of the Fal estuary remains remarkably robust. No scientific evidence emerged of any grounds for concern over the estuarine ecology, even if mine water were left to flow untreated. However, a rare ecological resource known as "maerl" (a form of calcified seaweed) is harvested annually in the estuary, providing significant revenue to the local economy and underpinning the 'clean' image of local sea water. Social and environmental benefit surveys revealed strong public perceptions that any visible discoloration in the estuary must indicate a diminution in quality of the maerl, to the detriment of both the public image and economy of the area. This factor proved sufficient to justify the continued pump-and-treat operations at the mine site. Although the decisive factor in the end was socio-economic in nature, robust assessment of this factor could not have been made

  15. A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2016-01-01

    Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

  16. implications of decision making process on agricultural employees

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was designed to determine the implications of decision making process on employees' turnover in the Institute of ... Involvement in Decision Making and Agricultural Employees' Turnover in Ibadan, Nigeria 37 ..... Lack of motivation.

  17. Making decision process knowledge explicit using the product data model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petrusel, R.; Vanderfeesten, I.T.P.; Dolean, Cristina; Mican, D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new knowledge acquisition and formalization method: the decision mining approach. Basically, we aim to produce a model of the workflow of mental actions performed by decision makers during the decision process. We show that through the use of a Product Data Model (PDM) we

  18. Simulation Models of Human Decision-Making Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina RIZUN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is presentation of the new concept of human decision-making process modeling via using the analogy with Automatic Control Theory. From the author's point of view this concept allows to develop and improve the theory of decision-making in terms of the study and classification of specificity of the human intellectual processes in different conditions. It was proved that the main distinguishing feature between the Heuristic / Intuitive and Rational Decision-Making Models is the presence of so-called phenomenon of "enrichment" of the input information with human propensity, hobbies, tendencies, expectations, axioms and judgments, presumptions or bias and their justification. In order to obtain additional knowledge about the basic intellectual processes as well as the possibility of modeling the decision results in various parameters characterizing the decision-maker, the complex of the simulation models was developed. These models are based on the assumptions that:  basic intellectual processes of the Rational Decision-Making Model can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the proportional-integral-derivative controller; basic intellectual processes of the Bounded Rationality and Intuitive Models can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the nonlinear elements.The taxonomy of the most typical automatic control theory elements and their compliance with certain decision-making models with a point of view of decision-making process specificity and decision-maker behavior during a certain time of professional activity was obtained.

  19. Risk-based maintenance-Techniques and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

    2007-01-01

    Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions

  20. Decision-making process in investment projects

    OpenAIRE

    Moutinho, Nuno

    2011-01-01

    We present projects evaluation approaches in what decision should be based. We try to understand what we have to take into account in a project analysis, knowing that we have to consider much unmeasured aspects, like non non-financial areas. We verify how all aspects are used and analysed in the project appraisal. We also desire to understand if companies have adequate tools and methods to correctly analyse and to take decisions in a project evaluation. In this study we identify several as...

  1. Dissociable neural processes underlying risky decisions for self versus other

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daehyun eJung

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Previous neuroimaging studies on decision making have mainly focused on decisions on behalf of oneself. Considering that people often make decisions on behalf of others, it is intriguing that there is little neurobiological evidence on how decisions for others differ from those for self. Thus, the present study focused on the direct comparison between risky decisions for self and those for other using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. Participants (N = 23 were asked to perform a gambling task for themselves (decision-for-self condition or for another person (decision-for-other condition while in the scanner. Their task was to choose between a low-risk option (i.e., win or lose 10 points and a high-risk option (i.e., win or lose 90 points. The winning probabilities of each option varied from 17% to 83%. Compared to choices for others, choices for self were more risk-averse at lower winning probability and more risk-seeking at higher winning probability, perhaps due to stronger affective process during risky decision for self compared to other. The brain activation pattern changed according to the target of the decision, such that reward-related regions were more active in the decision-for-self condition than in the decision-for-other condition, whereas brain regions related to the theory of mind (ToM showed greater activation in the decision-for-other condition than in the decision-for-self condition. A parametric modulation analysis reflecting each individual’s decision model revealed that activation of the amygdala and the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC were associated with value computation for self and for other, respectively, during a risky financial decision. The present study suggests that decisions for self and other may recruit fundamentally distinctive neural processes, which can be mainly characterized by dominant affective/impulsive and cognitive/regulatory processes, respectively.

  2. Process of Integrating Screening and Detailed Risk-based Modeling Analyses to Ensure Consistent and Scientifically Defensible Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buck, John W.; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.

    2002-01-01

    To support cleanup and closure of these tanks, modeling is performed to understand and predict potential impacts to human health and the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a screening tool for the United States Department of Energy, Office of River Protection that estimates the long-term human health risk, from a strategic planning perspective, posed by potential tank releases to the environment. This tool is being conditioned to more detailed model analyses to ensure consistency between studies and to provide scientific defensibility. Once the conditioning is complete, the system will be used to screen alternative cleanup and closure strategies. The integration of screening and detailed models provides consistent analyses, efficiencies in resources, and positive feedback between the various modeling groups. This approach of conditioning a screening methodology to more detailed analyses provides decision-makers with timely and defensible information and increases confidence in the results on the part of clients, regulators, and stakeholders

  3. Optimized work control process to improve safety and reliability in a risk-based and deregulated environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, Jon G.; Jeffries, Jeffrey D. E.; Mairs, Todd P.; Rahn, Frank J.

    1999-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of strategic models to assist power generating plants to improve their work control processes. These models include mechanisms to continually keep the process up to date. Included in the work control process are elements for system cost/performance analysis, life-cycle maintenance planning, on-line scheduling and look-ahead techniques, and schedule implementation to conduct work on the asset. The paper also discusses how risk management associated with work control issues that effect the safety and reliability, as well as O and M costs, is integrated into this strategy. The work control process is a pervasive and critical element in the successful implementation of operations and work management programs. While providing a method to implement maintenance activities in a cost-effective manner, the work control process improves plant safety and system reliability

  4. Understanding power plant investment decision processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, J.; Richstein, J.C.; De Vries, L.J.

    2013-01-01

    In order to understand how companies make investment decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty, we interviewed a number of actors in the Dutch electricity sector. Most of the economic literature that is devoted to this question is prescriptive in nature, describing rational methods to the

  5. The decision-making process between rationality and emotions

    OpenAIRE

    Alvino, Letizia; Franco, Massimo

    2017-01-01

    The decision-making process has been analyzed in several disciplines (economics, social sciences, humanities, etc.) with the aim of creating models to help decision-makers in strategy formulation. The Organizational theory takes into account both the decision-making process of individuals and groups of a company. Numerous models have been built, which include a wide range of psychological, environmental, hierarchical factors, all of which only account the notion of rationality. In time, such ...

  6. Risk-based determination of design pressure of LNG fuel storage tanks based on dynamic process simulation combined with Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noh, Yeelyong; Chang, Kwangpil; Seo, Yutaek; Chang, Daejun

    2014-01-01

    This study proposes a new methodology that combines dynamic process simulation (DPS) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to determine the design pressure of fuel storage tanks on LNG-fueled ships. Because the pressure of such tanks varies with time, DPS is employed to predict the pressure profile. Though equipment failure and subsequent repair affect transient pressure development, it is difficult to implement these features directly in the process simulation due to the randomness of the failure. To predict the pressure behavior realistically, MCS is combined with DPS. In MCS, discrete events are generated to create a lifetime scenario for a system. The combination of MCS with long-term DPS reveals the frequency of the exceedance pressure. The exceedance curve of the pressure provides risk-based information for determining the design pressure based on risk acceptance criteria, which may vary with different points of view. - Highlights: • The realistic operation scenario of the LNG FGS system is estimated by MCS. • In repeated MCS trials, the availability of the FGS system is evaluated. • The realistic pressure profile is obtained by the proposed methodology. • The exceedance curve provides risk-based information for determining design pressure

  7. Risk-Based Decision-Making and the Use of Operational Risk Management in Developing a Course of Action (COA) for the Joint Task Force (JTF)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Faherty, Denis

    2003-01-01

    Uncertainty and risk are inherent in the nature of military action. The success of any joint military operation is based upon a willingness to balance risk with opportunity in taking bold, decisive action necessary to triumph in war...

  8. Dissociable Neural Processes Underlying Risky Decisions for Self Versus Other

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Daehyun; Sul, Sunhae; Kim, Hackjin

    2013-01-01

    Previous neuroimaging studies on decision making have mainly focused on decisions on behalf of oneself. Considering that people often make decisions on behalf of others, it is intriguing that there is little neurobiological evidence on how decisions for others differ from those for oneself. The present study directly compared risky decisions for self with those for another person using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Participants were asked to perform a gambling task on behalf of themselves (decision-for-self condition) or another person (decision-for-other condition) while in the scanner. Their task was to choose between a low-risk option (i.e., win or lose 10 points) and a high-risk option (i.e., win or lose 90 points) with variable levels of winning probability. Compared with choices regarding others, those regarding oneself were more risk-averse at lower winning probabilities and more risk-seeking at higher winning probabilities, perhaps due to stronger affective process during risky decisions for oneself compared with those for other. The brain-activation pattern changed according to the target, such that reward-related regions were more active in the decision-for-self condition than in the decision-for-other condition, whereas brain regions related to the theory of mind (ToM) showed greater activation in the decision-for-other condition than in the decision-for-self condition. Parametric modulation analysis using individual decision models revealed that activation of the amygdala and the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC) were associated with value computations for oneself and for another, respectively, during risky financial decisions. The results of the present study suggest that decisions for oneself and for other may recruit fundamentally distinct neural processes, which can be mainly characterized as dominant affective/impulsive and cognitive/regulatory processes, respectively. PMID:23519016

  9. A Gaussian decision-support tool for engineering design process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Spitas, Christos

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making in design is of great importance, resulting in success or failure of a system (Liu et al., 2010; Roozenburg and Eekels, 1995; Spitas, 2011a). This paper describes a robust decision-support tool for engineering design process, which can be used throughout the design process in either

  10. Embedding a State Space Model Into a Markov Decision Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Relund; Jørgensen, Erik; Højsgaard, Søren

    2011-01-01

    In agriculture Markov decision processes (MDPs) with finite state and action space are often used to model sequential decision making over time. For instance, states in the process represent possible levels of traits of the animal and transition probabilities are based on biological models...

  11. Mothers' process of decision making for gastrostomy placement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brotherton, Ailsa; Abbott, Janice

    2012-05-01

    In this article we present the findings of an exploration of mothers' discourses on decision making for gastrostomy placement for their child. Exploring in-depth interviews of a purposive sample, we analyzed the mothers' discourses of the decision-making process to understand how their experiences of the process influenced their subsequent constructions of decision making. Mothers negotiated decision making by reflecting on their personal experiences of feeding their child, either orally or via a tube, and interwove their background experiences with the communications from members of the health care team until a decision was reached. Decision making was often fraught with difficulty, resulting in anxiety and guilt. Experiences of decision making ranged from perceived coercion to true choice, which encompasses a truly child-centered decision. The resulting impact of the decision-making process on the mothers was profound. We conclude with an exploration of the implications for clinical practice and describe how health care professionals can support mothers to ensure that decision-making processes for gastrostomy placement in children are significantly improved.

  12. Implementing a Decision-Aware System for Loan Contracting Decision Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razvan PETRUSEL

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces our work related to the design and implementation of a decision-aware system focused on the loan contracting decision process. A decision-aware system is a software that enables the user to make a decision in a simulated environment and logs all the actions of the decision maker while interacting with the software. By using a mining algorithm on the logs, it creates a model of the decision process and presents it to the user. The main design issue introduced in the paper is the possibility to log the mental actions of the user. The main implementation issues are: user activity logging programming and technologies used. The first section of the paper introduces the state-of-the-art research in process mining and the framework of our research; the second section argues the design of the system; the third section introduces the actual implementation and the fourth section shows a running example.

  13. Supporting risk-informed decisions during business process execution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conforti, R.; Leoni, de M.; La Rosa, M.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Salinesi, C.; Norrie, M.C.; Pastor, O.

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a technique that supports process participants in making risk-informed decisions, with the aim to reduce the process risks. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process

  14. Data processing framework for decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Jan

    The aim of the talk is * to provide insight into some of the issues in data processing and detection systems * to hint at possible solutions using statistical signal processing and machine learning methodologies...

  15. The decision-making process in public healthcare entities – identification of the decision-making process type

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymaniec-Mlicka Karolina

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The decisions made in the organization determine its success, therefore, conducting studies in the scope of decision-making seems important both for theory and practice. The aim of the studies was to identify the type of decision-making process in public medical entities with the use of typology developed by P. Nutt. For this purpose we used qualitative methods. Interviews with 8 directors of hospitals were conducted and the reconstruction was made on the basis of the decision-making process, which enabled the assignment of the model of decision-making process to the organization. The research indicated that four organizations use the historical decision-making model, three organizations represent the model of generating solutions, and one organization uses the model of available solutions.

  16. Exploring the Reshoring and Insourcing Decision Making Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bals, Lydia; Kirchoff, Jon F.; Foerstl, Kai

    2016-01-01

    The topics of reshoring and insourcing have recently become more widely discussed among operations management and international business scholars and managers, as some firms are revoking their offshoring and outsourcing decisions. This research focuses on and clarifies the decision making process...... organizational readiness in addition to decision drivers, improve coverage of the implementation stage and explore further contingency factors such as technological advancement as well as to focus on decision makers as the unit of analysis.......The topics of reshoring and insourcing have recently become more widely discussed among operations management and international business scholars and managers, as some firms are revoking their offshoring and outsourcing decisions. This research focuses on and clarifies the decision making processes...

  17. Risk-Based Tailoring of the Verification, Validation, and Accreditation/Acceptance Processes (Adaptation fondee sur le risque, des processus de verification, de validation, et d’accreditation/d’acceptation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-01

    AGARD doivent comporter la dénomination « RTO » ou « AGARD » selon le cas, suivi du numéro de série. Des informations analogues, telles que le titre ...MSG-054 Risk-Based Tailoring of the Verification, Validation, and Accreditation/ Acceptance Processes (Adaptation fondée sur le risque, des...MSG-054 Risk-Based Tailoring of the Verification, Validation, and Accreditation/ Acceptance Processes (Adaptation fondée sur le risque, des

  18. The household decision making process in replacement of durable goods

    OpenAIRE

    Marell Molander, Agneta

    1998-01-01

    As durables are essential in many households, the level of ownership is high and, due to the high degree of penetration, a vast proportion of the current sales are replacement purchases. Even though a lot of research attention has been paid to decision making and decision processes many models are oriented towards non-durable goods and although a majority of purchases of many durable goods are replacements, few studies seem to make a distinction between a replacement purchase decision and a d...

  19. Information processing by networks of quantum decision makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yukalov, V. I.; Yukalova, E. P.; Sornette, D.

    2018-02-01

    We suggest a model of a multi-agent society of decision makers taking decisions being based on two criteria, one is the utility of the prospects and the other is the attractiveness of the considered prospects. The model is the generalization of quantum decision theory, developed earlier for single decision makers realizing one-step decisions, in two principal aspects. First, several decision makers are considered simultaneously, who interact with each other through information exchange. Second, a multistep procedure is treated, when the agents exchange information many times. Several decision makers exchanging information and forming their judgment, using quantum rules, form a kind of a quantum information network, where collective decisions develop in time as a result of information exchange. In addition to characterizing collective decisions that arise in human societies, such networks can describe dynamical processes occurring in artificial quantum intelligence composed of several parts or in a cluster of quantum computers. The practical usage of the theory is illustrated on the dynamic disjunction effect for which three quantitative predictions are made: (i) the probabilistic behavior of decision makers at the initial stage of the process is described; (ii) the decrease of the difference between the initial prospect probabilities and the related utility factors is proved; (iii) the existence of a common consensus after multiple exchange of information is predicted. The predicted numerical values are in very good agreement with empirical data.

  20. Real-time multiparameter pulse processing with decision tables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, K.; Griffin, H.

    1986-01-01

    Decision tables offer several advantages over other real-time multiparameter, data processing techniques. These include very high collection rates, minimum number of computer instructions, rates independent of the number of conditions applied per parameter, ease of adding or removing conditions during a session, and simplicity of implementation. Decisions table processing is important in multiparameter nuclear spectroscopy, coincidence experiments, multiparameter pulse processing (HgI 2 resolution enhancement, pulse discrimination, timing spectroscopy), and other applications can be easily implemented. (orig.)

  1. Dual processing model of medical decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administe...

  2. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-12-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  3. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khrennikova, Polina [School of Management, University of Leicester, University Road Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom)

    2012-12-18

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schroedinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schroedinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  4. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-01-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  5. PROFIT SENSITIVITY IN THE DECISION - MAKING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimi Ofilean

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Projections on the profitability of an entity is a prerequisite impact assessment of implementing various management strategies. The literature did not include a model sensitivity analysis in terms of profit margin of safety modification and safety coefficient. This article aims to explicit solutions for identifying the factors that influence the sensitivity of profit, the proposed analytical models to change the margin of safety (physical and value and coefficient of safety. The model allows the determination of limits that can increase or decrease sales costs so that the company remains profitable, ie to be able to maintain an adequate level of profit. This analysis allows knowing the influence of each factor in the evolution of the profitability of the entity, allowing managers to adopt the right decisions based on the importance of the influence of the analysis results of the entity. To facilitate understanding of the proposed analytical model is presented a case study.

  6. Reducing Post-Decision Dissonance in International Decisions: The Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DuBois, Frank L.

    1999-01-01

    Describes use of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as a teaching tool to illustrate the complexities of decision making in an international environment. The AHP approach uses managerial input to develop pairwise comparisons of relevant decision criteria to efficiently generate an appropriate solution. (DB)

  7. Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

    2014-01-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

  8. Decision support based on process mining

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Burstein, F.; Holsapple, C.W.

    2008-01-01

    Process mining techniques allow for the analysis of business processes based on event logs. For example, the audit trails of a workflow management system, the transaction logs of an enterprise resource planning system, and the electronic patient records in a hospital can be used to discover models

  9. On the Decision-Making Process in Music Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorgensen, Estelle R.

    1985-01-01

    Sketches a conceptual framework for the systematic description of decision-making processes in music education. Refers to existing formulations in education, management, marketing, and economics. Lists decision-making phases in music education, each exhibiting the characteristics of a social system. Offers a historical example of each phase. (AYC)

  10. Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Analyze Multiattribute Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spires, Eric E.

    1991-01-01

    The use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in assisting researchers to analyze decisions is discussed. The AHP is compared with other decision-analysis techniques, including multiattribute utility measurement, conjoint analysis, and general linear models. Insights that AHP can provide are illustrated with data gathered in an auditing context.…

  11. Computerization of the safeguards analysis decision process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehinger, M.H.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports that safeguards regulations are evolving to meet new demands for timeliness and sensitivity in detecting the loss or unauthorized use of sensitive nuclear materials. The opportunities to meet new rules, particularly in bulk processing plants, involve developing techniques which use modern, computerized process control and information systems. Using these computerized systems in the safeguards analysis involves all the challenges of the man-machine interface experienced in the typical process control application and adds new dimensions to accuracy requirements, data analysis, and alarm resolution in the regulatory environment

  12. Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

    2014-12-01

    Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

  13. Markov decision processes: a tool for sequential decision making under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alagoz, Oguzhan; Hsu, Heather; Schaefer, Andrew J; Roberts, Mark S

    2010-01-01

    We provide a tutorial on the construction and evaluation of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are powerful analytical tools used for sequential decision making under uncertainty that have been widely used in many industrial and manufacturing applications but are underutilized in medical decision making (MDM). We demonstrate the use of an MDP to solve a sequential clinical treatment problem under uncertainty. Markov decision processes generalize standard Markov models in that a decision process is embedded in the model and multiple decisions are made over time. Furthermore, they have significant advantages over standard decision analysis. We compare MDPs to standard Markov-based simulation models by solving the problem of the optimal timing of living-donor liver transplantation using both methods. Both models result in the same optimal transplantation policy and the same total life expectancies for the same patient and living donor. The computation time for solving the MDP model is significantly smaller than that for solving the Markov model. We briefly describe the growing literature of MDPs applied to medical decisions.

  14. A Comprehensive Model of the Employee's Turnover Decision Process

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Donnelly, David

    2002-01-01

    .... In any environment in which retention is a primary goal, an essential first step in controlling attrition is the development of an in-depth understanding of the employee turnover decision process...

  15. Continuous-time Markov decision processes theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Guo, Xianping

    2009-01-01

    This volume provides the first book entirely devoted to recent developments on the theory and applications of continuous-time Markov decision processes (MDPs). The MDPs presented here include most of the cases that arise in applications.

  16. Influence of Culture on the Process of Managing Decisions Adoption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin-Lucian Isac

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Different cultural environment requires a corresponding managerial environment. The process of managing decisions adoption is influenced by the values, attitudes, beliefs and behaviors of the employees.

  17. Use of PRA in Shuttle Decision Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri L.

    2010-01-01

    How do you use PRA to support an operating program? This presentation will explore how the Shuttle Program Management has used the Shuttle PRA in its decision making process. It will reveal how the PRA has evolved from a tool used to evaluate Shuttle upgrades like Electric Auxiliary Power Unit (EAPU) to a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and real-time flight decisions. Specific examples of Shuttle Program decisions that have used the Shuttle PRA as input will be provided including how it was used in the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) manifest decision. It will discuss the importance of providing management with a clear presentation of the analysis, applicable assumptions and limitations, along with estimates of the uncertainty. This presentation will show how the use of PRA by the Shuttle Program has evolved overtime and how it has been used in the decision making process providing specific examples.

  18. The analytic hierarchy process as a support for decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipović Milanka

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The first part of this text deals with a convention site selection as one of the most lucrative areas in the tourism industry. The second part gives a further description of a method for decision making - the analytic hierarchy process. The basic characteristics: hierarchy constructions and pair wise comparison on the given level of the hierarchy are allured. The third part offers an example of application. This example is solved using the Super - Decision software, which is developed as a computer support for the analytic hierarchy process. This indicates that the AHP approach is a useful tool to help support a decision of convention site selection. .

  19. Sexual picture processing interferes with decision-making under ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laier, Christian; Pawlikowski, Mirko; Brand, Matthias

    2014-04-01

    Many people watch sexually arousing material on the Internet in order to receive sexual arousal and gratification. When browsing for sexual stimuli, individuals have to make several decisions, all possibly leading to positive or negative consequences. Decision-making research has shown that decisions under ambiguity are influenced by consequences received following earlier decisions. Sexual arousal might interfere with the decision-making process and should therefore lead to disadvantageous decision-making in the long run. In the current study, 82 heterosexual, male participants watched sexual pictures, rated them with respect to sexual arousal, and were asked to indicate their current level of sexual arousal before and following the sexual picture presentation. Afterwards, subjects performed one of two modified versions of the Iowa Gambling Task in which sexual pictures were displayed on the advantageous and neutral pictures on the disadvantageous card decks or vice versa (n = 41/n = 41). Results demonstrated an increase of sexual arousal following the sexual picture presentation. Decision-making performance was worse when sexual pictures were associated with disadvantageous card decks compared to performance when the sexual pictures were linked to the advantageous decks. Subjective sexual arousal moderated the relationship between task condition and decision-making performance. This study emphasized that sexual arousal interfered with decision-making, which may explain why some individuals experience negative consequences in the context of cybersex use.

  20. Safety assessment as basis for the decision making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilie, P.; Didita, L.; Danchiv, A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper deals with the safety assessment for a new near surface repository, particularly for the early stage of repository development using ISAM (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Disposal Facilities) safety assessment methodology. In this stage of the repository life cycle the main purpose of the safety assessment is to demonstrate that the plant is capable to be constructed and operated safely. The paper is based on development of the ASAM (Application of the Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near-Surface Disposal Facilities) Decision Support Subgroup of the Common Aspects Working Group. The implications of decision making for the application of the ISAM methodology on post-closure safety assessment are analysed. Some important elements of the decision-making process with impact on key components of the ISAM process are described. Following the development of Decision Support Subgroup of the ASAM Common Aspects Working Group the proposed change of ISAM methodology is analysed. This approach puts all activities in a decision context where the first iteration of the safety assessment is based on the existing state of knowledge and the initial engineering design. Confidence in the process is accomplished through the direct inclusion of all decision makers and stakeholders in the formulation of decisions, the definition of the state of knowledge, and decision making activities. The decision process is developed in context of undertaking assessments with little site-specific information, this situation is specifically for new planned repository. Limited site-specific information can result in a high degree of uncertainty, therefore it is important first of all to identify the sources of uncertainty arising from the limited nature of the site-specific information and then to apply appropriate approaches to manage the uncertainties and to determine whether the uncertainties are important to the overall safety of the disposal facility

  1. WTS - Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) application supports a new SMS-structured process designed to focus on safety oversight of systems and processes rather than...

  2. Simulating operator decision processes at SRL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoecker, D.G.; Benhardt, H.C.; Pople, H.E. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    Cognitive environment simulation (CES) is both a methodology and an artificial intelligence (AI) tool. As a methodology, it denotes a technique that models human operators' cognitive processes to either (a) aid in designing the interface to a complex system (such as nuclear reactor control room) or (b) assess the cognitive causality that effects the likelihood of human error in specific accident scenarios. As an AI tool, CES is an expert system that models human intention formation and errors in a problem-solving context. The immediate objective of the reported work was to demonstrate the feasibility of applying CES to a new domain - that of the defense production reactors, whose design and operating philosophy differ in key areas from power reactors, where CES has already demonstrated interesting results

  3. Nonword repetition in lexical decision: support for two opposing processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Zeelenberg, René; Steyvers, Mark; Shiffrin, Richard; Raaijmakers, Jeroen

    2004-10-01

    We tested and confirmed the hypothesis that the prior presentation of nonwords in lexical decision is the net result of two opposing processes: (1) a relatively fast inhibitory process based on global familiarity; and (2) a relatively slow facilitatory process based on the retrieval of specific episodic information. In three studies, we manipulated speed-stress to influence the balance between the two processes. Experiment 1 showed item-specific improvement for repeated nonwords in a standard "respond-when-ready" lexical decision task. Experiment 2 used a 400-ms deadline procedure and showed performance for nonwords to be unaffected by up to four prior presentations. In Experiment 3 we used a signal-to-respond procedure with variable time intervals and found negative repetition priming for repeated nonwords. These results can be accounted for by dual-process models of lexical decision.

  4. Risk-Based Decision-Making and the Use of Operational Risk Management in Developing a Course of Action (COA) for the Joint Task Force (JTF)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Faherty, Denis

    2003-01-01

    .... Operational Risk Management (ORM) is the process that assists the military commander in reducing or offsetting risk and helps him think through his options when faced with force employment and the requirement for risk control for mission success...

  5. Cognitive processes, models and metaphors in decision research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Newell

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Decision research in psychology has traditionally been influenced by the extit{homo oeconomicus} metaphor with its emphasis on normative models and deviations from the predictions of those models. In contrast, the principal metaphor of cognitive psychology conceptualizes humans as `information processors', employing processes of perception, memory, categorization, problem solving and so on. Many of the processes described in cognitive theories are similar to those involved in decision making, and thus increasing cross-fertilization between the two areas is an important endeavour. A wide range of models and metaphors has been proposed to explain and describe `information processing' and many models have been applied to decision making in ingenious ways. This special issue encourages cross-fertilization between cognitive psychology and decision research by providing an overview of current perspectives in one area that continues to highlight the benefits of the synergistic approach: cognitive modeling of multi-attribute decision making. In this introduction we discuss aspects of the cognitive system that need to be considered when modeling multi-attribute decision making (e.g., automatic versus controlled processing, learning and memory constraints, metacognition and illustrate how such aspects are incorporated into the approaches proposed by contributors to the special issue. We end by discussing the challenges posed by the contrasting and sometimes incompatible assumptions of the models and metaphors.

  6. Funding Decisions for Newborn Screening: A Comparative Review of 22 Decision Processes in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Elisabeth Fischer

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Decision-makers need to make choices to improve public health. Population-based newborn screening (NBS is considered as one strategy to prevent adverse health outcomes and address rare disease patients’ needs. The aim of this study was to describe key characteristics of decisions for funding new NBS programmes in Europe. We analysed past decisions using a conceptual framework. It incorporates indicators that capture the steps of decision processes by health care payers. Based on an internet survey, we compared 22 decisions for which answers among two respondents were validated for each observation. The frequencies of indicators were calculated to elicit key characteristics. All decisions resulted in positive, mostly unrestricted funding. Stakeholder participation was diverse focusing on information provision or voting. Often, decisions were not fully transparent. Assessment of NBS technologies concentrated on expert opinion, literature review and rough cost estimates. Most important appraisal criteria were effectiveness (i.e., health gain from testing for the children being screened, disease severity and availability of treatments. Some common and diverging key characteristics were identified. Although no evidence of explicit healthcare rationing was found, processes may be improved in respect of transparency and scientific rigour of assessment.

  7. Surgical Consultation as Social Process: Implications for Shared Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clapp, Justin T; Arriaga, Alexander F; Murthy, Sushila; Raper, Steven E; Schwartz, J Sanford; Barg, Frances K; Fleisher, Lee A

    2017-12-12

    This qualitative study examines surgical consultation as a social process and assesses its alignment with assumptions of the shared decision-making (SDM) model. SDM stresses the importance of patient preferences and rigorous discussion of therapeutic risks/benefits based on these preferences. However, empirical studies have highlighted discrepancies between SDM and realities of surgical decision making. Qualitative research can inform understanding of the decision-making process and allow for granular assessment of the nature and causes of these discrepancies. We observed consultations between 3 general surgeons and 45 patients considering undergoing 1 of 2 preference-sensitive elective operations: (1) hernia repair, or (2) cholecystectomy. These patients and surgeons also participated in semi-structured interviews. By the time of the consultation, patients and surgeons were predisposed toward certain decisions by preceding events occurring elsewhere. During the visit, surgeons had differential ability to arbitrate surgical intervention and construct the severity of patients' conditions. These upstream dynamics frequently displaced the centrality of the risk/benefit-based consent discussion. The influence of events preceding consultation suggests that decision-making models should account for broader spatiotemporal spans. Given surgeons' authority to define patients' conditions and control service provision, SDM may be premised on an overestimation of patients' power to alter the course of decision making once in a specialist's office. Considering the subordinate role of the risk/benefit discussion in many surgical decisions, it will be important to study if and how the social process of decision making is altered by SDM-oriented decision aids that foreground this discussion.

  8. A decision model for the risk management of hazardous processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.E.

    1997-03-01

    A decision model for risk management of hazardous processes as an optimisation problem of a point process is formulated in the study. In the approach, the decisions made by the management are divided into three categories: (1) planned process lifetime, (2) selection of the design and, (3) operational decisions. These three controlling methods play quite different roles in the practical risk management, which is also reflected in our approach. The optimisation of the process lifetime is related to the licensing problem of the process. It provides a boundary condition for a feasible utility function that is used as the actual objective function, i.e., maximizing the process lifetime utility. By design modifications, the management can affect the inherent accident hazard rate of the process. This is usually a discrete optimisation task. The study particularly concentrates upon the optimisation of the operational strategies given a certain design and licensing time. This is done by a dynamic risk model (marked point process model) representing the stochastic process of events observable or unobservable to the decision maker. An optimal long term control variable guiding the selection of operational alternatives in short term problems is studied. The optimisation problem is solved by the stochastic quasi-gradient procedure. The approach is illustrated by a case study. (23 refs.)

  9. SOFTWARE PROCESS ASSESSMENT AND IMPROVEMENT USING MULTICRITERIA DECISION AIDING - CONSTRUCTIVIST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Ensslin

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Software process improvement and software process assessment have received special attention since the 1980s. Some models have been created, but these models rest on a normative approach, where the decision-maker’s participation in a software organization is limited to understanding which process is more relevant to each organization. The proposal of this work is to present the MCDA-C as a constructivist methodology for software process improvement and assessment. The methodology makes it possible to visualize the criteria that must be taken into account according to the decision-makers’ values in the process improvement actions, making it possible to rank actions in the light of specific organizational needs. This process helped the manager of the company studied to focus on and prioritize process improvement actions. This paper offers an empirical understanding of the application of performance evaluation to software process improvement and identifies complementary tools to the normative models presented today.

  10. Beyond dual-process models: A categorisation of processes underlying intuitive judgement and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glöckner, A.; Witteman, C.L.M.

    2010-01-01

    Intuitive-automatic processes are crucial for making judgements and decisions. The fascinating complexity of these processes has attracted many decision researchers, prompting them to start investigating intuition empirically and to develop numerous models. Dual-process models assume a clear

  11. The Decision-Making Process of a Small Task Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roderick, Joan C.

    1985-01-01

    This article focuses on the following areas of group process: the nature of the task group, the steps taken to reach a decision, and the ways in which a leader can effectively manage the inevitable conflict that emerges within groups as the problem-solving process progresses. (CT)

  12. Methods for risk-based planning of O&M of wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    take more information into account, and especially, the method based on the Markov decision process is very flexible and accurate. A case study shows that the Markov decision process and decision rules based on the probability of failure are equally good and give lower costs compared to decision rules......In order to make wind energy more competitive, the big expenses for operation and maintenance must be reduced. Consistent decisions that minimize the expected costs can be made based on risk-based methods. Such methods have been implemented for maintenance planning for oil and gas structures......, a method based on limited memory influence diagrams and a method based on the partially observable Markov decision process. The methods with decision rules based on observed variables are easy to use, but can only take the most recent observation into account, when a decision is made. The other methods can...

  13. Clarification process: Resolution of decision-problem conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterly, D. L.

    1980-01-01

    A model of a general process which occurs in both decisionmaking and problem-solving tasks is presented. It is called the clarification model and is highly dependent on information flow. The model addresses the possible constraints of individual indifferences and experience in achieving success in resolving decision-problem conditions. As indicated, the application of the clarification process model is only necessary for certain classes of the basic decision-problem condition. With less complex decision problem conditions, certain phases of the model may be omitted. The model may be applied across a wide range of decision problem conditions. The model consists of two major components: (1) the five-phase prescriptive sequence (based on previous approaches to both concepts) and (2) the information manipulation function (which draws upon current ideas in the areas of information processing, computer programming, memory, and thinking). The two components are linked together to provide a structure that assists in understanding the process of resolving problems and making decisions.

  14. Neural Correlates of Feedback Processing in Decision Making under Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beate eSchuermann

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Event-related brain potentials (ERP provide important information about the sensitivity of the brain to process varying risks. The aim of the present study was to determine how different risk levels are reflected in decision-related ERPs, namely the feedback-related negativity (FRN and the P300. Material and Methods. 20 participants conducted a probabilistic two-choice gambling task while an electroencephalogram was recorded. Choices were provided between a low-risk option yielding low rewards and low losses and a high-risk option yielding high rewards and high losses. While options differed in expected risks, they were equal in expected values and in feedback probabilities. Results. At the behavioral level, participants were generally risk-averse but modulated their risk-taking behavior according to reward history. An early positivity (P200 was enhanced on negative feedbacks in high-risk compared to low-risk options. With regard to the FRN, there were significant amplitude differences between positive and negative feedbacks in high-risk options, but not in low-risk options. While the FRN on negative feedbacks did not vary with decision riskiness, reduced amplitudes were found for positive feedbacks in high-risk relative to low-risk choices. P300 amplitudes were larger in high-risk decisions, and in an additive way, after negative compared to positive feedback. Discussion. The present study revealed significant influences of risk and valence processing on ERPs. FRN findings suggest that the reward prediction error signal is increased after high-risk decisions. The increased P200 on negative feedback in risky decisions suggests that large negative prediction errors are processed as early as in the P200 time range. The later P300 amplitude is sensitive to feedback valence as well as to the risk of a decision. Thus, the P300 carries additional information for reward processing, mainly the enhanced motivational significance of risky

  15. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The objectives of the risk-based indicator programme. The characteristics of the risk-based indicators. The objectives of risk-based safety indicators - in monitoring safety; in PSA applications. What indicators? How to produce the risk based indicators? PSA requirements

  16. Ethical implications and decision making in care education process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Layse Kelle Silva

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To determine ethical implications for nursing practice at the point of decision making by nursing professors in practice area. Methodology. A qualitative method was adopted, with use of semistructured interviews with sixteen nursing professors who delivered care at a teaching hospital in Salvador, Bahia, from May to June 2011. The methodological reference used was the discourse of the collective subject (DCS by Lefévre and Lefévre. Results. In response to DCSs, the following subjects appeared: "Ethics is fundamental and of vital importance in the decision making process," "searching for knowledge and research to identify problems and solutions, including alternatives and support for decisions," and "to act in the best way." Conclusion. Professors who provide education about patient care also delivered care. They have the responsibility to consider the ethical implications of decision making because they stimulate fundamental reflection and could positively influence future nursing professionals.

  17. Decision Support Methods for Supply Processes in the Floral Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kutyba Agata

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to show the application of the ABC and AHP (multi-criteria method for hierarchical analysis of decision processes as an important part of decision making in supply processes which are realized in the floral industry. The ABC analysis was performed in order to classify the product mix from the perspective of the demand values. This in consequence enabled us to identify the most important products which were then used as a variant in the AHP method.

  18. The WIPP decision plan: Charting the course for openness in the decision making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagers, J.

    1992-01-01

    In June of 1989, the Secretary of Energy requested that a plan be developed that would clearly outline the prerequisites to opening the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). It was to provide the basis for a decision making process that was not only visible to the public, but one which included public participation. It must also be dynamic enough to effectively deal with the changing legislative, regulatory, and technical environments. Based on a recognized need for openness, the Secretary's Draft Decision Plan was developed. The plan charted the course for ultimately making the decision to declare WIPP ready to receive waste for the start of test phase operations. It outlined to critics and supporters alike the rigorous and thorough process by which the internal decisions were made. The plan identified all internal prerequisites to the decision; charted the review cycles, and targeted the completion dates. It also outlined the processes outside the control of the Department, institutional issues, such as legislative land withdrawal, issuance of permits, and designation of transportation routes

  19. Dual processing model of medical decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical

  20. Dual processing model of medical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

    2012-09-03

    Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. We show that physician's beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker's threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical decision-making field, which is still to the

  1. Dual processing model of medical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Djulbegovic Benjamin

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to

  2. Technical expertise in the decision process - some comparative observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wynne, B.

    1987-01-01

    The Sizewell-B public Inquiry aimed to be a 'full, fair and thorough' examination of all the facts. This could not really be achieved because the economic and safety cases cannot be exhaustively and definitively analysed. Technical examination cannot resolve these issues - only political commitment and history can, in time. This problem of uncertainties in the decision making process is discussed in detail, indicating the difficulties with large-scale public inquiries such as that for Sizewell-B. Analysis of many case studies of decision making indicates two generalisations. The first is that commitments made on the basis of values or political interests are represented as if they were the inevitable result of economic logic or scientific law. The second is that expert disagreement over technical claims is widely believed to be caused by lack of vigour, competance or impartiality on one side or the other. Recommendations for improving the decision-making process are made. (U.K.)

  3. Information processing as a paradigm for decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Daniel M; Kelso, Evan

    2015-01-03

    For decades, the dominant paradigm for studying decision making--the expected utility framework--has been burdened by an increasing number of empirical findings that question its validity as a model of human cognition and behavior. However, as Kuhn (1962) argued in his seminal discussion of paradigm shifts, an old paradigm cannot be abandoned until a new paradigm emerges to replace it. In this article, we argue that the recent shift in researcher attention toward basic cognitive processes that give rise to decision phenomena constitutes the beginning of that replacement paradigm. Models grounded in basic perceptual, attentional, memory, and aggregation processes have begun to proliferate. The development of this new approach closely aligns with Kuhn's notion of paradigm shift, suggesting that this is a particularly generative and revolutionary time to be studying decision science.

  4. Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk Are Not the Same As in Decisions Under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten G Volz

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (small world, all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (large worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries, with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift towards studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples.

  5. Preferences for political decision-making processes and issue publics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wojcieszak, M.

    2014-01-01

    Research on public attitudes toward political decision-making has typically focused on politics in general. This study attends to issue-level as well as individual-level factors that can explain political process preferences. First, drawing on the classic distinction between easy and hard political

  6. Participation in decision-making process, incentives and training as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Participation in decision-making process, incentives and training as predictors of organizational commitment among industrial workers. ... African Journal for the Psychological Study of Social Issues ... Results indicated that the three motivational factors jointly and significantly predicted organizational commitment. Also, each ...

  7. Process-related factors associated with disciplinary board decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birkeland, Søren; Christensen, RD; Damsbo, Niels

    2013-01-01

    plays with regard to board decision outcomes. Using complaint cases towards general practitioners, the aim of this study was to identify what process factors are statistically associated with disciplinary actions as seen from the party of the complainant and the defendant general practitioner...

  8. Investigating the Decision-Making Process of Standard Setting Participants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papageorgiou, Spiros

    2010-01-01

    Despite the growing interest of the language testing community in standard setting, primarily due to the use of the Common European Framework of Reference (CEFR-Council of Europe, 2001), the participants' decision-making process in the CEFR standard setting context remains unexplored. This study attempts to fill in this gap by analyzing these…

  9. Developing Holocaust Curricula: The Content Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, David H.

    2008-01-01

    The content decision-making process involved in developing Holocaust curricula is unusually complex and problematic. Educators must consider factors such as historical accuracy, selection of topics covered, potential teaching materials (such as textbooks and literary texts), and graphic materials (such as films and photographs) as they plan their…

  10. Special issue on activity-travel decision processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doherty, S.; Ettema, D.F.

    2006-01-01

    Before you lies the 2006 TRB (Transportation Research Board) Special Issue of Transportation comprising selected papers presented at the 2006 Annual Meeting of the TRB in sessions sponsored by the Travel Behavior and Values committee on activity-travel decision processes. We are pleased to serve

  11. Housing decision making methods for initiation development phase process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zainal, Rozlin; Kasim, Narimah; Sarpin, Norliana; Wee, Seow Ta; Shamsudin, Zarina

    2017-10-01

    Late delivery and sick housing project problems were attributed to poor decision making. These problems are the string of housing developer that prefers to create their own approach based on their experiences and expertise with the simplest approach by just applying the obtainable standards and rules in decision making. This paper seeks to identify the decision making methods for housing development at the initiation phase in Malaysia. The research involved Delphi method by using questionnaire survey which involved 50 numbers of developers as samples for the primary stage of collect data. However, only 34 developers contributed to the second stage of the information gathering process. At the last stage, only 12 developers were left for the final data collection process. Finding affirms that Malaysian developers prefer to make their investment decisions based on simple interpolation of historical data and using simple statistical or mathematical techniques in producing the required reports. It was suggested that they seemed to skip several important decision-making functions at the primary development stage. These shortcomings were mainly due to time and financial constraints and the lack of statistical or mathematical expertise among the professional and management groups in the developer organisations.

  12. Principles of risk-based decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    United States. Coast Guard. Risk based decision-making guidelines

    2001-01-01

    ... original content in order to make this product more generically applicable and less Coast Guard specific. h s k assessment and risk management are important topics in industry and government. Because of limited resources and increasing demands for services, most organizations simply cannot continue business as usual. Even if resources are not dec...

  13. Risk based decision aid for damage control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meesters, J.L.; Keijer, W.; Gillis, M.P.W.

    2003-01-01

    The current trend in ship design is to reduce the crew. Special attention should be paid to damage control, which is a labour intensive task. Having less crew members implies that more tasks have to be automated. It also means a reduction of the available 'human sensors’, which leads to difficulties

  14. Designing a risk-based surveillance program for Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis in Norwegian dairy herds using multivariate statistical process control analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whist, A C; Liland, K H; Jonsson, M E; Sæbø, S; Sviland, S; Østerås, O; Norström, M; Hopp, P

    2014-11-01

    Surveillance programs for animal diseases are critical to early disease detection and risk estimation and to documenting a population's disease status at a given time. The aim of this study was to describe a risk-based surveillance program for detecting Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in Norwegian dairy cattle. The included risk factors for detecting MAP were purchase of cattle, combined cattle and goat farming, and location of the cattle farm in counties containing goats with MAP. The risk indicators included production data [culling of animals >3 yr of age, carcass conformation of animals >3 yr of age, milk production decrease in older lactating cows (lactations 3, 4, and 5)], and clinical data (diarrhea, enteritis, or both, in animals >3 yr of age). Except for combined cattle and goat farming and cattle farm location, all data were collected at the cow level and summarized at the herd level. Predefined risk factors and risk indicators were extracted from different national databases and combined in a multivariate statistical process control to obtain a risk assessment for each herd. The ordinary Hotelling's T(2) statistic was applied as a multivariate, standardized measure of difference between the current observed state and the average state of the risk factors for a given herd. To make the analysis more robust and adapt it to the slowly developing nature of MAP, monthly risk calculations were based on data accumulated during a 24-mo period. Monitoring of these variables was performed to identify outliers that may indicate deviance in one or more of the underlying processes. The highest-ranked herds were scattered all over Norway and clustered in high-density dairy cattle farm areas. The resulting rankings of herds are being used in the national surveillance program for MAP in 2014 to increase the sensitivity of the ongoing surveillance program in which 5 fecal samples for bacteriological examination are collected from 25 dairy herds

  15. Motivators That Intervene in the Decision Making Process in Tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra VINEREAN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Being part of the tourism industries involves many researches and analyses in different periods of time, regarding different segments of consumers. Therefore, it is important to be aware of all the factors and motivators that influence a tourist to purchase a particular tourism services. These complex variables are crucial for the final purchase decision of an offer with emotional value for customers. This paper presents the principals motivators which intervene in the decision making process that should be acknowledged by marketers in order to provide the ideal tourism package.

  16. A Mining Algorithm for Extracting Decision Process Data Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina-Claudia DOLEAN

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces an algorithm that mines logs of user interaction with simulation software. It outputs a model that explicitly shows the data perspective of the decision process, namely the Decision Data Model (DDM. In the first part of the paper we focus on how the DDM is extracted by our mining algorithm. We introduce it as pseudo-code and, then, provide explanations and examples of how it actually works. In the second part of the paper, we use a series of small case studies to prove the robustness of the mining algorithm and how it deals with the most common patterns we found in real logs.

  17. Strategic-Decision Quality in Public Organizations: An Information Processing Perspective.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.R.J. George (Bert); S. Desmidt (Sebastian)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThis study draws on information processing theory to investigate predictors of strategic-decision quality in public organizations. Information processing theory argues that (a) rational planning practices contribute to strategic-decision quality by injecting information into decision

  18. Visualization of decision processes using a cognitive architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingston, Mark A.; Murugesan, Arthi; Brock, Derek; Frost, Wende K.; Perzanowski, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Cognitive architectures are computational theories of reasoning the human mind engages in as it processes facts and experiences. A cognitive architecture uses declarative and procedural knowledge to represent mental constructs that are involved in decision making. Employing a model of behavioral and perceptual constraints derived from a set of one or more scenarios, the architecture reasons about the most likely consequence(s) of a sequence of events. Reasoning of any complexity and depth involving computational processes, however, is often opaque and challenging to comprehend. Arguably, for decision makers who may need to evaluate or question the results of autonomous reasoning, it would be useful to be able to inspect the steps involved in an interactive, graphical format. When a chain of evidence and constraint-based decision points can be visualized, it becomes easier to explore both how and why a scenario of interest will likely unfold in a particular way. In initial work on a scheme for visualizing cognitively-based decision processes, we focus on generating graphical representations of models run in the Polyscheme cognitive architecture. Our visualization algorithm operates on a modified version of Polyscheme's output, which is accomplished by augmenting models with a simple set of tags. We provide example visualizations and discuss properties of our technique that pose challenges for our representation goals. We conclude with a summary of feedback solicited from domain experts and practitioners in the field of cognitive modeling.

  19. Decision process regarding nuclear generation: the Brazilian case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metri, Paulo

    2009-01-01

    Countries face a constant need to expand their electricity generation capacities. Electricity sources in a country and the respective generation technologies have different technical, economic, environmental, social and political characteristics. The evaluation criteria of the generating sources and their technologies must not be restricted to the supply of the increased demand at the lowest cost. Compliance with other public policies must be considered in the decision process of the expansion, for instance, maximize local acquisition and minimize foreign fuel purchase. Countries have different energy resources, as well as different levels of technology and development in their industrial parks. Brazil has many mineral reserves, besides the hydraulic potential, for supporting the expansion. The decision process in this sector, which includes nuclear energy as a sub-sector, requires analyzing and evaluating various information and data. In this stage, a quantitative model providing a first approach for the decision may be applied. The new institutional structure adopted in the sector during the 1990s and 2000s brought about new conditions into an already complex decision process. In such context of methodology complexity, political aspects gain relevance, becoming of increased importance. The political environment is described and the players are identified. One conclusion and a few recommendations are provided. (author)

  20. Human Decision Processes: Implications for SSA Support Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picciano, P.

    2013-09-01

    Despite significant advances in computing power and artificial intelligence (AI), few critical decisions are made without a human decision maker in the loop. Space Situational Awareness (SSA) missions are both critical and complex, typically adhering to the human-in-the-loop (HITL) model. The collection of human operators injects a needed diversity of expert knowledge, experience, and authority required to successfully fulfill SSA tasking. A wealth of literature on human decision making exists citing myriad empirical studies and offering a varied set of prescriptive and descriptive models of judgment and decision making (Hastie & Dawes, 2001; Baron, 2000). Many findings have been proven sufficiently robust to allow information architects or system/interface designers to take action to improve decision processes. For the purpose of discussion, these concepts are bifurcated in two groups: 1) vulnerabilities to mitigate, and 2) capabilities to augment. These vulnerabilities and capabilities refer specifically to the decision process and should not be confused with a shortcoming or skill of a specific human operator. Thus the framing of questions and orders, the automated tools with which to collaborate, priming and contextual data, and the delivery of information all play a critical role in human judgment and choice. Evaluating the merits of any decision can be elusive; in order to constrain this discussion, ‘rational choice' will tend toward the economic model characteristics such as maximizing utility and selection consistency (e.g., if A preferred to B, and B preferred to C, than A should be preferred to C). Simple decision models often encourage one to list the pros and cons of a decision, perhaps use a weighting schema, but one way or another weigh the future benefit (or harm) of making a selection. The result (sought by the rationalist models) should drive toward higher utility. Despite notable differences in researchers' theses (to be discussed in the full

  1. Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

  2. Consumer recycling: An ethical decision-making process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Culiberg, Barbara; Bajde, Domen

    2013-01-01

    Although recycling is often experienced as a moral dilemma, studies that systematically approach this issue from an ethical perspective are scarce. Moreover, previous studies have explored recycling by mainly using single ethical constructs, such as moral norms, values or obligations, rarely...... approaching it as an ethical decision-making process. Our study takes a more holistic approach and integrates the recycling literature with business ethics theory in order to develop a conceptual model of ethical decision making involved in recycling. The model is based on Jones' issue-contingent model...... using structural equation modelling. The results of our study confirmed the relationships between three key facets of ethical decision making: moral recognition, moral judgment and moral intention. Higher levels of moral recognition were found to lead to more positive moral judgments, which in turn...

  3. Where should I send it? Optimizing the submission decision process.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santiago Salinas

    Full Text Available How do scientists decide where to submit manuscripts? Many factors influence this decision, including prestige, acceptance probability, turnaround time, target audience, fit, and impact factor. Here, we present a framework for evaluating where to submit a manuscript based on the theory of Markov decision processes. We derive two models, one in which an author is trying to optimally maximize citations and another in which that goal is balanced by either minimizing the number of resubmissions or the total time in review. We parameterize the models with data on acceptance probability, submission-to-decision times, and impact factors for 61 ecology journals. We find that submission sequences beginning with Ecology Letters, Ecological Monographs, or PLOS ONE could be optimal depending on the importance given to time to acceptance or number of resubmissions. This analysis provides some guidance on where to submit a manuscript given the individual-specific values assigned to these disparate objectives.

  4. Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri, L.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

  5. Active Learning of Markov Decision Processes for System Verification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yingke; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2012-01-01

    deterministic Markov decision processes from data by actively guiding the selection of input actions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed by learning system models of slot machines, and it is demonstrated that the proposed active learning procedure can significantly reduce the amount of data required...... demanding process, and this shortcoming has motivated the development of algorithms for automatically learning system models from observed system behaviors. Recently, algorithms have been proposed for learning Markov decision process representations of reactive systems based on alternating sequences...... of input/output observations. While alleviating the problem of manually constructing a system model, the collection/generation of observed system behaviors can also prove demanding. Consequently we seek to minimize the amount of data required. In this paper we propose an algorithm for learning...

  6. Risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

  7. Working memory and decision processes in visual area V4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin eHayden

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Recognizing and responding to a remembered stimulus requires the coordination of perception, working memory and decision-making. To investigate the role of visual cortex in these processes, we recorded responses of single V4 neurons during performance of a delayed match-to-sample task that incorporates rapid serial visual presentation of natural images. We found that neuronal activity during the delay period after the cue but before the images depends on the identity of the remembered image and that this change persists while distractors appear. This persistent response modulation has been identified as a diagnostic criterion for putative working memory signals; our data thus suggest that working memory may involve reactivation of sensory neurons. When the remembered image reappears in the neuron’s receptive field, visually evoked responses are enhanced; this match enhancement is a diagnostic criterion for decision. One model that predicts these data is the matched filter hypothesis, which holds that during search V4 neurons change their tuning so as to match the remembered cue, and thus become detectors for that image. More generally, these results suggest that V4 neurons participate in the perceptual, working memory and decision processes that are needed to perform memory-guided decision-making.

  8. Working memory and decision processes in visual area v4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayden, Benjamin Y; Gallant, Jack L

    2013-01-01

    Recognizing and responding to a remembered stimulus requires the coordination of perception, working memory, and decision-making. To investigate the role of visual cortex in these processes, we recorded responses of single V4 neurons during performance of a delayed match-to-sample task that incorporates rapid serial visual presentation of natural images. We found that neuronal activity during the delay period after the cue but before the images depends on the identity of the remembered image and that this change persists while distractors appear. This persistent response modulation has been identified as a diagnostic criterion for putative working memory signals; our data thus suggest that working memory may involve reactivation of sensory neurons. When the remembered image reappears in the neuron's receptive field, visually evoked responses are enhanced; this match enhancement is a diagnostic criterion for decision. One model that predicts these data is the matched filter hypothesis, which holds that during search V4 neurons change their tuning so as to match the remembered cue, and thus become detectors for that image. More generally, these results suggest that V4 neurons participate in the perceptual, working memory, and decision processes that are needed to perform memory-guided decision-making.

  9. The features of decision making process in international companies. Are companies in control of their own decisions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasia JELEVA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The following article deals with the main causes of irrational decision making process in companies and with respective solutions to make decisions more rational and effective. With the aid of relevant literature, the ways managers, groups and leaders make decisions in reality will be clarified. Besides, the solutions to rational decisions examined through the perspective of managers, leaders and groups. Thus, the background of this article is the question “Are companies in control of their own decisions?” In addition, this paper includes relevant information about the features of decision making process, basic types of decisions, describes the most essential approach in management regarding to decision making and presents the top worst and best business decisions of all time.

  10. Risk based seismic design criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.

    1999-01-01

    In order to develop a risk based seismic design criteria the following four issues must be addressed: (1) What target annual probability of seismic induced unacceptable performance is acceptable? (2) What minimum seismic margin is acceptable? (3) Given the decisions made under Issues 1 and 2, at what annual frequency of exceedance should the safe-shutdown-earthquake (SSE) ground motion be defined? (4) What seismic design criteria should be established to reasonably achieve the seismic margin defined under Issue 2? The first issue is purely a policy decision and is not addressed in this paper. Each of the other three issues are addressed. Issues 2 and 3 are integrally tied together so that a very large number of possible combinations of responses to these two issues can be used to achieve the target goal defined under Issue 1. Section 2 lays out a combined approach to these two issues and presents three potentially attractive combined resolutions of these two issues which reasonably achieves the target goal. The remainder of the paper discusses an approach which can be used to develop seismic design criteria aimed at achieving the desired seismic margin defined in resolution of Issue 2. Suggestions for revising existing seismic design criteria to more consistently achieve the desired seismic margin are presented. (orig.)

  11. Introduction of new vaccines: decision-making process in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uddin, Jasim; Sarma, Haribondhu; Bari, Tajul I; Koehlmoos, Tracey P

    2013-06-01

    The understanding of the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines helps establish why vaccines are adopted or not. It also contributes to building a sustainable demand for vaccines in a country. The purpose of the study was to map and analyze the formal decision-making process in relation to the introduction of new vaccines within the context of health policy and health systems and identify the ways of making decisions to introduce new vaccines in Bangladesh. During February-April 2011, a qualitative assessment was made at the national level to evaluate the decision-making process around the adoption of new vaccines in Bangladesh. The study population included: policy-level people, programme heads or associates, and key decision-makers of the Government, private sector, non-governmental organizations, and international agencies at the national level. In total, 13 key informants were purposively selected. Data were collected by interviewing key informants and reviewing documents. Data were analyzed thematically. The findings revealed that the actors from different sectors at the policy level were involved in the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines. They included policy-makers from the ministries of health and family welfare, finance, and local government and rural development; academicians; researchers; representatives from professional associations; development partners; and members of different committees on EPI. They contributed to the introduction of new vaccines in their own capacity. The burden of disease, research findings on vaccine-preventable diseases, political issues relating to outbreaks of certain diseases, initiatives of international and local stakeholders, pressure of development partners, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) support, and financial matters were the key factors in the introduction of new vaccines in Bangladesh. The slow introduction and uptake of new vaccines is a concern

  12. Decision Making under Uncertainty: A Neural Model based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh P N Rao

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem faced by animals is learning to select actions based on noisy sensory information and incomplete knowledge of the world. It has been suggested that the brain engages in Bayesian inference during perception but how such probabilistic representations are used to select actions has remained unclear. Here we propose a neural model of action selection and decision making based on the theory of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs. Actions are selected based not on a single optimal estimate of state but on the posterior distribution over states (the belief state. We show how such a model provides a unified framework for explaining experimental results in decision making that involve both information gathering and overt actions. The model utilizes temporal difference (TD learning for maximizing expected reward. The resulting neural architecture posits an active role for the neocortex in belief computation while ascribing a role to the basal ganglia in belief representation, value computation, and action selection. When applied to the random dots motion discrimination task, model neurons representing belief exhibit responses similar to those of LIP neurons in primate neocortex. The appropriate threshold for switching from information gathering to overt actions emerges naturally during reward maximization. Additionally, the time course of reward prediction error in the model shares similarities with dopaminergic responses in the basal ganglia during the random dots task. For tasks with a deadline, the model learns a decision making strategy that changes with elapsed time, predicting a collapsing decision threshold consistent with some experimental studies. The model provides a new framework for understanding neural decision making and suggests an important role for interactions between the neocortex and the basal ganglia in learning the mapping between probabilistic sensory representations and actions that maximize

  13. Identification of Optimal Policies in Markov Decision Processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    46 2010, č. 3 (2010), s. 558-570 ISSN 0023-5954. [International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Economy and Industry. České Budějovice, 15.06.2009-18.06.2009] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/0107; GA ČR GA402/07/1113 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : finite state Markov decision processes * discounted and average costs * elimination of suboptimal policies Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.461, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/sladky-identification of optimal policies in markov decision processes.pdf

  14. A dynamic dual process model of risky decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diederich, Adele; Trueblood, Jennifer S

    2018-03-01

    Many phenomena in judgment and decision making are often attributed to the interaction of 2 systems of reasoning. Although these so-called dual process theories can explain many types of behavior, they are rarely formalized as mathematical or computational models. Rather, dual process models are typically verbal theories, which are difficult to conclusively evaluate or test. In the cases in which formal (i.e., mathematical) dual process models have been proposed, they have not been quantitatively fit to experimental data and are often silent when it comes to the timing of the 2 systems. In the current article, we present a dynamic dual process model framework of risky decision making that provides an account of the timing and interaction of the 2 systems and can explain both choice and response-time data. We outline several predictions of the model, including how changes in the timing of the 2 systems as well as time pressure can influence behavior. The framework also allows us to explore different assumptions about how preferences are constructed by the 2 systems as well as the dynamic interaction of the 2 systems. In particular, we examine 3 different possible functional forms of the 2 systems and 2 possible ways the systems can interact (simultaneously or serially). We compare these dual process models with 2 single process models using risky decision making data from Guo, Trueblood, and Diederich (2017). Using this data, we find that 1 of the dual process models significantly outperforms the other models in accounting for both choices and response times. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. A Make-or-buy Decision Process for Outsourcing

    OpenAIRE

    Bajec, Patricija; Jakomin, Igor

    2010-01-01

    Should firms perform logistics services on their own or should they buy them from a logistics provider? Today’s global competition forces companies to re-evaluate their existing processes, technologies and services in order to focuse on strategic activities. Outsourcing is now increasingly used as a competitive weapon in today’s economy. External parties can often do job quicker, cheaper and better. This has resulted in an increasing awareness of the importance of the make-or-buy decision, th...

  16. A Partially Observed Markov Decision Process for Dynamic Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Yossi Aviv; Amit Pazgal

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a stylized partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) framework to study a dynamic pricing problem faced by sellers of fashion-like goods. We consider a retailer that plans to sell a given stock of items during a finite sales season. The objective of the retailer is to dynamically price the product in a way that maximizes expected revenues. Our model brings together various types of uncertainties about the demand, some of which are resolvable through sales ob...

  17. A consumer decision process model for the Internet

    OpenAIRE

    Ambaye, Michele

    2005-01-01

    This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University. This investigation attempts to improve understanding of the behaviour of internet consumers from an empirical basis. It reports on the results of studies into decision-making processes of consumers on the internet in the context of apparel retailing. Consumers consisting of a profile sample of working female consumers, aged between 18 and 45, in the ABC1 social group, are considered in terms ...

  18. Mechanisms of public participation in the decision-making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corner, J.

    1993-01-01

    Public inquiries, hearings, referenda and government reviews are among a number of commonly mechanisms through which the public in the relevant OECD countries participate in the decision-making process in respect of nuclear power and its development. The scope, application and effectiveness of these procedures appear to vary from country to country; differences which may result from styles of government, history, national interest and other factors. We listen to each OECD member in turn, explaining how is the situation in his country

  19. A decision-making process model of young online shoppers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chin-Feng; Wang, Hui-Fang

    2008-12-01

    Based on the concepts of brand equity, means-end chain, and Web site trust, this study proposes a novel model called the consumption decision-making process of adolescents (CDMPA) to understand adolescents' Internet consumption habits and behavioral intention toward particular sporting goods. The findings of the CDMPA model can help marketers understand adolescents' consumption preferences and habits for developing effective Internet marketing strategies.

  20. Mean-Variance Optimization in Markov Decision Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Mannor, Shie; Tsitsiklis, John N.

    2011-01-01

    We consider finite horizon Markov decision processes under performance measures that involve both the mean and the variance of the cumulative reward. We show that either randomized or history-based policies can improve performance. We prove that the complexity of computing a policy that maximizes the mean reward under a variance constraint is NP-hard for some cases, and strongly NP-hard for others. We finally offer pseudo-polynomial exact and approximation algorithms.

  1. SOCOM Training and Rehearsal System (STRS) Process Improvement and Decision Support System (DSS) Development

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Crossland, Neal; Broussard, Steve

    2005-01-01

    ...) Process Improvement and Decision Support System (DSS) Development. Discussion sequence is: Why the study? Objectives; Areas of inquiry; Study products; Observations; Recommendations; Decision Support System.

  2. The application of reduced-processing decision support systems to facilitate the acquisition of decision-making skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Nathan C; Wiggins, Mark W; Childs, Merilyn; Fogarty, Gerard

    2013-06-01

    The study was designed to examine whether the availability of reduced-processing decision support system interfaces could improve the decision making of inexperienced personnel in the context of Although research into reduced-processing decision support systems has demonstrated benefits in minimizing cognitive load, these benefits have not typically translated into direct improvements in decision accuracy because of the tendency for inexperienced personnel to focus on less-critical information. The authors investigated whether reduced-processing interfaces that direct users' attention toward the most critical cues for decision making can produce improvements in decision-making performance. Novice participants made incident command-related decisions in experimental conditions that differed according to the amount of information that was available within the interface, the level of control that they could exert over the presentation of information, and whether they had received decision training. The results revealed that despite receiving training, participants improved in decision accuracy only when they were provided with an interface that restricted information access to the most critical cues. It was concluded that an interface that restricts information access to only the most critical cues in the scenario can facilitate improvements in decision performance. Decision support system interfaces that encourage the processing of the most critical cues have the potential to improve the accuracy and timeliness of decisions made by inexperienced personnel.

  3. Risk-based performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.

    1987-01-01

    The purpose of risk-based indicators is to monitor plant safety. Safety is measured by monitoring the potential for core melt (core-melt frequency) and the public risk. Targets for these measures can be set consistent with NRC safety goals. In this process, the performance of safety systems, support systems, major components, and initiating events can be monitored using measures such as unavailability, failure or occurrence frequency. The changes in performance measures and their trends are determined from the time behavior of monitored measures by differentiation between stochastical and actual variations. Therefore, degradation, as well as improvement in the plant safety performance, can be determined. The development of risk-based performance indicators will also provide the means to trace a change in the safety measures to specific problem areas which are amenable to root cause analysis and inspection audits. In addition, systematic methods will be developed to identify specific improvement policies using the plant information system for the identified problem areas. The final product of the performance indicator project will be a methodology, and an integrated and validated set of software packages which, if properly interfaced with the logic model software of a plant, can monitor the plant performance as plant information is provided as input

  4. Market Segmentation in the Decision Making Process in Tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra VINEREAN

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I examine the responses of 154 tourists in relation to their predisposition to purchase and the patterns and habits that are usually decisive in the decision making process regarding tourism services or products. For this research, I conducted a selective direct research, whose purpose was to obtain a segmentation of consumers who purchase tourism services based on specific dimensions of behavior. This research also implied studying the behavior of current and potential customers who purchase travel services depending on several variables for establishing different consumption habits. Thus, to establish a more detailed image of the tourists who participated in this direct and selective research, the analysis involved a factor analysis and a cluster analysis.

  5. Public involvement in the decision making process, Argentine experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clein, D.

    1999-01-01

    In the frame of a young participative democracy the Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica (C.N.E.A.), technical and legal responsible for radioactive waste management, is developing a plan for the close out of tailings facilities from past mining and milling operations and the environmental restoration of nine different sites in six provinces all over the country. In the first site, Malargue Facility, different activities have been developed promoting public involvement in the decision making process. The lessons learned and the experience acquired have given the background for the systematization of public consultation in the ongoing and future stages of the plan. Malargue's experience in this field will be analyzed stressing on different aspects considered of importance for the design of a communicational strategy adapted to the characteristics of a society without experience in this field. The influence of public concern on conservative bias of technical decisions will be evaluated. (author)

  6. Simulation-based algorithms for Markov decision processes

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, Hyeong Soo; Fu, Michael C; Marcus, Steven I

    2013-01-01

    Markov decision process (MDP) models are widely used for modeling sequential decision-making problems that arise in engineering, economics, computer science, and the social sciences.  Many real-world problems modeled by MDPs have huge state and/or action spaces, giving an opening to the curse of dimensionality and so making practical solution of the resulting models intractable.  In other cases, the system of interest is too complex to allow explicit specification of some of the MDP model parameters, but simulation samples are readily available (e.g., for random transitions and costs). For these settings, various sampling and population-based algorithms have been developed to overcome the difficulties of computing an optimal solution in terms of a policy and/or value function.  Specific approaches include adaptive sampling, evolutionary policy iteration, evolutionary random policy search, and model reference adaptive search. This substantially enlarged new edition reflects the latest developments in novel ...

  7. Shared decision making and medication management in the recovery process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deegan, Patricia E; Drake, Robert E

    2006-11-01

    Mental health professionals commonly conceptualize medication management for people with severe mental illness in terms of strategies to increase compliance or adherence. The authors argue that compliance is an inadequate construct because it fails to capture the dynamic complexity of autonomous clients who must navigate decisional conflicts in learning to manage disorders over the course of years or decades. Compliance is rooted in medical paternalism and is at odds with principles of person-centered care and evidence-based medicine. Using medication is an active process that involves complex decision making and a chance to work through decisional conflicts. It requires a partnership between two experts: the client and the practitioner. Shared decision making provides a model for them to assess a treatment's advantages and disadvantages within the context of recovering a life after a diagnosis of a major mental disorder.

  8. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M.

    1995-01-01

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities

  9. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities.

  10. Decision Gate Process for Assessment of a Technology Development Portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohli, Rajiv; Fishman, Julianna; Hyatt, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Dust Management Project (DMP) was established to provide technologies (to TRL 6 development level) required to address adverse effects of lunar dust to humans and to exploration systems and equipment, which will reduce life cycle cost and risk, and will increase the probability of sustainable and successful lunar missions. The technology portfolio of DMP consisted of different categories of technologies whose final product is either a technology solution in itself, or one that contributes toward a dust mitigation strategy for a particular application. A Decision Gate Process (DGP) was developed to assess and validate the achievement and priority of the dust mitigation technologies as the technologies progress through the development cycle. The DGP was part of continuous technology assessment and was a critical element of DMP risk management. At the core of the process were technology-specific criteria developed to measure the success of each DMP technology in attaining the technology readiness levels assigned to each decision gate. The DGP accounts for both categories of technologies and qualifies the technology progression from technology development tasks to application areas. The process provided opportunities to validate performance, as well as to identify non-performance in time to adjust resources and direction. This paper describes the overall philosophy of the DGP and the methodology for implementation for DMP, and describes the method for defining the technology evaluation criteria. The process is illustrated by example of an application to a specific DMP technology.

  11. Strategic-decision quality in public organizations : an information processing perspective

    OpenAIRE

    George, Bert; Desmidt, Sebastian

    2018-01-01

    textabstractThis study draws on information processing theory to investigate predictors of strategic-decision quality in public organizations. Information processing theory argues that (a) rational planning practices contribute to strategic-decision quality by injecting information into decision making and (b) decision makers contribute to strategic-decision quality by exchanging information during decision making. These assumptions are tested upon 55 Flemish pupil guidance centers. Rational ...

  12. Legality, legitimacy and formal and informal decision-making processes: when does a decision become legitimate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwetkoff, C.

    2004-01-01

    A few words on the purpose of this paper are given by way of introduction. A brief analysis will be made of the relationship between legality and legitimacy in relation to decision-making processes and within the context of the policies concerning the public management of technological risks. The aim is to raise questions and outline some reflections based on the theory of the state, from the perspective of the conditions of the institutionalization of power. I shall first clarify a few conceptual points. The notion of legality refers to the notion of compliance with legal standards, that is to say, with the law. Is the decision made by a person empowered by law so do to (legal competence)? Is it taken in compliance with legal procedure? And are the effects implicitly in keeping with the spirit of the law? The legitimacy of the power of those who govern, or the legitimacy of their decisions, is not determined solely by legal standards but rather, is a matter of individual and social representation or view. As Hobbes says, in essence, to govern is to convince: to convince people of the rightfulness of the source of the power of those who govern and of the action or public policies that they formulate. The paper is organised around three propositions: 1. The role of the legitimacy or social acceptability of public policies has always been an element of the way all political systems function. This role, however, occupies an increasingly important place on the political agenda in a societal decision-making context that has undergone irreversible changes. 2. Although the essence of the social legitimacy of public policies remains the same, the conditions, mechanisms and criteria evolve. 3. The critical centrality of social legitimacy, together with the evolution of the criteria for legitimate decision, today modify the decision-making mechanisms that were established in response to the requirements of classical democracy. We observe a political organisation i n the

  13. Contingency Management and deliberative decision-making processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul S. Regier

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Contingency Management is an effective treatment for drug addiction. The current explanation for its success is rooted in alternative reinforcement theory. We suggest that alternative reinforcement theory is inadequate to explain the success of Contingency Management and produce a model based on demand curves that show how little the monetary rewards offered in this treatment would affect drug use. Instead, we offer an explanation of its success based on the concept that it accesses deliberative decision-making processes. We suggest that Contingency Management is effective because it offers a concrete and immediate alternative to using drugs, which engages deliberative processes, improves the ability of those deliberative processes to attend to non-drug options, and offsets more automatic action-selection systems. This theory makes explicit predictions that can be tested, suggests which users will be most helped by Contingency Management, and suggests improvements in its implementation.

  14. Contingency Management and Deliberative Decision-Making Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regier, Paul S; Redish, A David

    2015-01-01

    Contingency management is an effective treatment for drug addiction. The current explanation for its success is rooted in alternative reinforcement theory. We suggest that alternative reinforcement theory is inadequate to explain the success of contingency management and produce a model based on demand curves that show how little the monetary rewards offered in this treatment would affect drug use. Instead, we offer an explanation of its success based on the concept that it accesses deliberative decision-making processes. We suggest that contingency management is effective because it offers a concrete and immediate alternative to using drugs, which engages deliberative processes, improves the ability of those deliberative processes to attend to non-drug options, and offsets more automatic action-selection systems. This theory makes explicit predictions that can be tested, suggests which users will be most helped by contingency management, and suggests improvements in its implementation.

  15. Project transition to risk based corrective action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judge, J.M.; Cormier, S.L.

    1996-01-01

    Many states have adopted or are considering the adoption of the America Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Standard E 1739, Standard for Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) Applied to Petroleum Release Sites. This standard is being adopted to regulate leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites. The case studies of two LUST sites in Michigan will be presented to demonstrate the decision making process and limiting factors involved in transitioning sites to the RBCA program. Both of these case studies had been previously investigated and one was actively remediated. The first case study involves a private petroleum facility where soil and ground water have been impacted. Remediation involved a ground water pump and treat system. Subsequent monitoring during system operation indicated that analytical data were still above the Tier 1 RBSLs but below the Tier 2 SSTLs. The closure strategy that was developed was based on the compounds of concern that were below the SSTLs. A deed restriction was also developed for the site as an institutional control. The second LUST site exhibited BTEX concentrations in soil and ground water above the Tier 1 RBSLs. Due to the exceedence of the Tier 1 RBSLs, the second site required a Tier 2 assessment to develop SSTLs as remedial objectives and remove hot spots in the soil and treat the ground water to achieve closure. Again, a deed restriction was instituted along with a performance monitoring plan

  16. Communicating climate information: travelling through the decision-making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoverinck, F.; Dubois, G.; Amelung, B.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change forces society to adapt. Adaptation strategies are preferably based on the best available climate information. Climate projections, however, often inform adaptation strategies after being interpreted once or several times. This process affects the original message put forward by climate scientists when presenting the basic climate projections, in particular regarding uncertainties. The nature of this effect and its implications for decision-making are as yet poorly understood. This paper explores the nature and consequences of a) the communication tools used by scientists and experts, and b)changes in the communicated information as it travels through the decision-making process. It does so by analysing the interpretative steps taken in a sample of 25 documents, pertaining to the field of public policies for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies. Five phases in the provisioning of climate information are distinguished: pre-existing knowledge (i.e. climate models and data), climate- change projection, impact assessment, adaptation strategy, and adaptation plan. Between the phases, climate information is summarized and synthesised in order to be passed on. The results show that in the sample information on uncertainty is under-represented: e.g. studies focus on only one scenario, and/or disregard probability distributions. In addition, visualization tools are often used ineffectively, leading to confusion and unintended interpretations. Several recommendations are presented. A better training of climatologists to communication issues, but also a training to climatology for decision makers are required, as well as more cautious and robust adaptation strategies, accounting for the uncertainty inherent to climate projections. (authors)

  17. Artificial intelligence framework for simulating clinical decision-making: a Markov decision process approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Casey C; Hauser, Kris

    2013-01-01

    In the modern healthcare system, rapidly expanding costs/complexity, the growing myriad of treatment options, and exploding information streams that often do not effectively reach the front lines hinder the ability to choose optimal treatment decisions over time. The goal in this paper is to develop a general purpose (non-disease-specific) computational/artificial intelligence (AI) framework to address these challenges. This framework serves two potential functions: (1) a simulation environment for exploring various healthcare policies, payment methodologies, etc., and (2) the basis for clinical artificial intelligence - an AI that can "think like a doctor". This approach combines Markov decision processes and dynamic decision networks to learn from clinical data and develop complex plans via simulation of alternative sequential decision paths while capturing the sometimes conflicting, sometimes synergistic interactions of various components in the healthcare system. It can operate in partially observable environments (in the case of missing observations or data) by maintaining belief states about patient health status and functions as an online agent that plans and re-plans as actions are performed and new observations are obtained. This framework was evaluated using real patient data from an electronic health record. The results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach; such an AI framework easily outperforms the current treatment-as-usual (TAU) case-rate/fee-for-service models of healthcare. The cost per unit of outcome change (CPUC) was $189 vs. $497 for AI vs. TAU (where lower is considered optimal) - while at the same time the AI approach could obtain a 30-35% increase in patient outcomes. Tweaking certain AI model parameters could further enhance this advantage, obtaining approximately 50% more improvement (outcome change) for roughly half the costs. Given careful design and problem formulation, an AI simulation framework can approximate optimal

  18. Public involvement in decision making process in nuclear field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Constantin, M.; Diaconu, D.

    2009-01-01

    Decision Making Process (DMP) in nuclear field is influenced by multiple factors such as: complex technical aspects, diversity of stakeholders, long term risks, psychological stresses, societal attitudes, etc. General public is sometimes considered as the only one of stakeholders, the involvement of the public being seen as a factor to obtain the acceptance in the late phase of DMP. Generally it is assessed by public consultation on the environment impact studies and by approval of the sitting through the local authorities decision. Modern society uses methods to involve public from the beginning of DMP. The paper shows a general view of the methods and tools used in Europe for public involvement in DMP. The process of construction of a continuous democratic dialog inside of Romanian Stakeholder Group (RSG) in the frame of the FP6-COWAM2 and CIP projects is presented with a focusing of the barriers and factors of disturbing the trust and collaboration between stakeholders. The influence on the public acceptance is also discussed. (authors)

  19. Stakeholder participation in radiological decision making: processes and implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Within the radiological protection community, stakeholder issues have moved steadily to the fore-front of policy discussions, and clearly form a key element in decisions regarding the development and implementation of radiological protection policy. It was in this light that the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) undertook three case studies on stakeholder involvement processes and experiences. Experience and lessons were analysed and extracted that may have application to numerous situations in other national contexts. They are intended to aid decision makers and regulators who are involved in radiological protection, and may have particular value for post-accident contamination situations, the siting of new nuclear installations, the management of emissions from routine operations at nuclear facilities, and the decommissioning of existing nuclear installations. The three case studies presented in this report were specifically developed as input to the Third Villigen Workshop (Villigen, Switzerland, 21-23 October 2003) and address the following situations: - the Canadian review process for uranium production projects in Northern Saskatchewan; - the Rocky Flats controversy on radionuclide action levels; - the ETHOS project for post-accident rehabilitation in the area of Belarus contaminated by the Chernobyl disaster. (author)

  20. Pavement maintenance optimization model using Markov Decision Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandiartha, P.; Duffield, C. F.; Razelan, I. S. b. M.; Ismail, A. b. H.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents an optimization model for selection of pavement maintenance intervention using a theory of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). There are some particular characteristics of the MDP developed in this paper which distinguish it from other similar studies or optimization models intended for pavement maintenance policy development. These unique characteristics include a direct inclusion of constraints into the formulation of MDP, the use of an average cost method of MDP, and the policy development process based on the dual linear programming solution. The limited information or discussions that are available on these matters in terms of stochastic based optimization model in road network management motivates this study. This paper uses a data set acquired from road authorities of state of Victoria, Australia, to test the model and recommends steps in the computation of MDP based stochastic optimization model, leading to the development of optimum pavement maintenance policy.

  1. Stakeholder participation in radiological decision making: processes and implication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Since 1998, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency has been organizing a series of workshops to address the various aspects of stakeholder involvement in radiological protection decision making. These workshops have been instrumental in forging consensus and improving understanding of key issues in this area. Building on the experience of the first two 'Villigen workshops', the third in the series extensively analysed three case studies, which covered the licensing of a new facility, the clean-up and release of an old facility, and the rehabilitation of a large, contaminated area. Consideration was given to the stakeholder involvement processes that had been used, and the implications that these did or could have on radiological protection policy, regulation and application. The workshop papers analysing these processes and implications are presented in these proceedings, which should provide valuable examples and lessons for governments, regulators and practitioners. (author)

  2. The decision-making process during accidents or incidents in the operational nuclear area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martins, Maria da Penha Sanches; Vanni, Silvia Regina Vanni [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), SP (Brazil); Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], email: penhamartins@yahoo.com.br, e-mail: sjcvanni@yahoo.com.br; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], e-mail: delvonei@ipen.br

    2009-07-01

    This study reflects on one of the human behavior mediating factors that face nuclear facility operators during their decision-making process. It includes some mental processes used to determine the best course of action, based on intuitive and creative decisions, within a specific set of rational conditions which depend much more on perception about threats than on theoretical knowledge. A fast and efficient decision, in an unstable and ongoing changing scenario/environment, is extremely complex. The decision-making process goes beyond the purely rational level and many times is influenced by intuition. The importance of the decision-making process leads the study to also review human factors. The methodology used in this paper is based on cognitive aspects which are focused essentially on studies such as: decision process models, decision types and human rationality limits (time) versus individual decisions. Lastly, it makes assessments on how reason, emotion and being under stress relate to the decision-making process (author)

  3. The decision-making process during accidents or incidents in the operational nuclear area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martins, Maria da Penha Sanches; Vanni, Silvia Regina Vanni; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de

    2009-01-01

    This study reflects on one of the human behavior mediating factors that face nuclear facility operators during their decision-making process. It includes some mental processes used to determine the best course of action, based on intuitive and creative decisions, within a specific set of rational conditions which depend much more on perception about threats than on theoretical knowledge. A fast and efficient decision, in an unstable and ongoing changing scenario/environment, is extremely complex. The decision-making process goes beyond the purely rational level and many times is influenced by intuition. The importance of the decision-making process leads the study to also review human factors. The methodology used in this paper is based on cognitive aspects which are focused essentially on studies such as: decision process models, decision types and human rationality limits (time) versus individual decisions. Lastly, it makes assessments on how reason, emotion and being under stress relate to the decision-making process (author)

  4. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

    to oil and gas structures. In addition, condition monitoring systems are often available, and the information should be taken into account when making decisions. In this thesis, methods for risk-based maintenance planning using Bayesian methods are investigated, with the aim of making optimal decisions......, but presently maintenance is not planned using advanced methods taking all available information into account in a consistent manner. Maintenance decisions can be made based on risk-based methods, where the total expected life cycle costs are minimized. Methods have been developed for assessing the corrective...... considering all available information. First, a theoretical damage model is formulated, the model is then updated using condition monitoring data, and the updated model is used as basis for risk-based decision making. Several approaches for solving the decision problems have been considered: various types...

  5. Information Technology Process Improvement Decision-Making: An Exploratory Study from the Perspective of Process Owners and Process Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamp, Sandra A.

    2012-01-01

    There is information available in the literature that discusses information technology (IT) governance and investment decision making from an executive-level perception, yet there is little information available that offers the perspective of process owners and process managers pertaining to their role in IT process improvement and investment…

  6. Development of an instrument to understand the child protective services decision-making process, with a focus on placement decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettlaff, Alan J; Christopher Graham, J; Holzman, Jesse; Baumann, Donald J; Fluke, John D

    2015-11-01

    When children come to the attention of the child welfare system, they become involved in a decision-making process in which decisions are made that have a significant effect on their future and well-being. The decision to remove children from their families is particularly complex; yet surprisingly little is understood about this decision-making process. This paper presents the results of a study to develop an instrument to explore, at the caseworker level, the context of the removal decision, with the objective of understanding the influence of the individual and organizational factors on this decision, drawing from the Decision Making Ecology as the underlying rationale for obtaining the measures. The instrument was based on the development of decision-making scales used in prior decision-making studies and administered to child protection caseworkers in several states. Analyses included reliability analyses, principal components analyses, and inter-correlations among the resulting scales. For one scale regarding removal decisions, a principal components analysis resulted in the extraction of two components, jointly identified as caseworkers' decision-making orientation, described as (1) an internal reference to decision-making and (2) an external reference to decision-making. Reliability analyses demonstrated acceptable to high internal consistency for 9 of the 11 scales. Full details of the reliability analyses, principal components analyses, and inter-correlations among the seven scales are discussed, along with implications for practice and the utility of this instrument to support the understanding of decision-making in child welfare. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. The role of risk-based prioritization in total quality management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, C.T.

    1994-10-01

    The climate in which government managers must make decisions grows more complex and uncertain. All stakeholders - the public, industry, and Congress - are demanding greater consciousness, responsibility, and accountability of programs and their budgets. Yet, managerial decisions have become multifaceted, involve greater risk, and operate over much longer time periods. Over the last four or five decades, as policy analysis and decisions became more complex, scientists from psychology, operations research, systems science, and economics have developed a more or less coherent process called decision analysis to aid program management. The process of decision analysis - a systems theoretic approach - provides the backdrop for this paper. The Laboratory Integrated Prioritization System (LIPS) has been developed as a systems analytic and risk-based prioritization tool to aid the management of the Tri-Labs` (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) operating resources. Preliminary analyses of the effects of LIPS has confirmed the practical benefits of decision and systems sciences - the systematic, quantitative reduction in uncertainty. To date, the use of LIPS - and, hence, its value - has been restricted to resource allocation within the Tri-Labs` operations budgets. This report extends the role of risk-based prioritization to the support of DOE Total Quality Management (TQM) programs. Furthermore, this paper will argue for the requirement to institutionalize an evolutionary, decision theoretic approach to the policy analysis of the Department of Energy`s Program Budget.

  8. Qualitative modeling of the decision-making process using electrooculography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zargari Marandi, Ramtin; Sabzpoushan, S H

    2015-12-01

    A novel method based on electrooculography (EOG) has been introduced in this work to study the decision-making process. An experiment was designed and implemented wherein subjects were asked to choose between two items from the same category that were presented within a limited time. The EOG and voice signals of the subjects were recorded during the experiment. A calibration task was performed to map the EOG signals to their corresponding gaze positions on the screen by using an artificial neural network. To analyze the data, 16 parameters were extracted from the response time and EOG signals of the subjects. Evaluation and comparison of the parameters, together with subjects' choices, revealed functional information. On the basis of this information, subjects switched their eye gazes between items about three times on average. We also found, according to statistical hypothesis testing-that is, a t test, t(10) = 71.62, SE = 1.25, p < .0001-that the correspondence rate of a subjects' gaze at the moment of selection with the selected item was significant. Ultimately, on the basis of these results, we propose a qualitative choice model for the decision-making task.

  9. International Patients' Travel Decision Making Process- A Conceptual Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Mohammad Jamal; Chelliah, Shankar; Haron, Mahmod Sabri

    2016-02-01

    Role of information source, perceived benefits and risks, and destination image has significantly been examined in travel and tourism literature; however, in medical tourism it is yet to be examined thoroughly. The concept discussed in this article is drawn form well established models in tourism literature. The purpose of this research was to identify the source of information, travel benefits and perceived risks related to movement of international patients and develop a conceptual model based on well-established theory. Thorough database search (Science Direct, utmj.org, nih.gov, nchu.edu.tw, palgrave-journals, medretreat, Biomedcentral) was performed to fulfill the objectives of the study. International patients always concern about benefits and risks related to travel. These benefits and risks form images of destination in the minds of international patients. Different sources of information make international patients acquaint about the associated benefits and risks, which later leads to development of intention to visit. This conceptual paper helps in establishing model for decision-making process of international patients in developing visit intention. Ample amount of literature is available detailing different factors involved in travel decision making of international patients; however literature explaining relationship between these factors is scarce.

  10. International Patients’ Travel Decision Making Process- A Conceptual Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    KHAN, Mohammad Jamal; CHELLIAH, Shankar; HARON, Mahmod Sabri

    2016-01-01

    Background: Role of information source, perceived benefits and risks, and destination image has significantly been examined in travel and tourism literature; however, in medical tourism it is yet to be examined thoroughly. The concept discussed in this article is drawn form well established models in tourism literature. Methods: The purpose of this research was to identify the source of information, travel benefits and perceived risks related to movement of international patients and develop a conceptual model based on well-established theory. Thorough database search (Science Direct, utmj.org, nih.gov, nchu.edu.tw, palgrave-journals, medretreat, Biomedcentral) was performed to fulfill the objectives of the study. Results: International patients always concern about benefits and risks related to travel. These benefits and risks form images of destination in the minds of international patients. Different sources of information make international patients acquaint about the associated benefits and risks, which later leads to development of intention to visit. This conceptual paper helps in establishing model for decision-making process of international patients in developing visit intention. Conclusion: Ample amount of literature is available detailing different factors involved in travel decision making of international patients; however literature explaining relationship between these factors is scarce. PMID:27114978

  11. Control Design for Untimed Petri Nets Using Markov Decision Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cherki Daoui

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Design of control sequences for discrete event systems (DESs has been presented modelled by untimed Petri nets (PNs. PNs are well-known mathematical and graphical models that are widely used to describe distributed DESs, including choices, synchronizations and parallelisms. The domains of application include, but are not restricted to, manufacturing systems, computer science and transportation networks. We are motivated by the observation that such systems need to plan their production or services. The paper is more particularly concerned with control issues in uncertain environments when unexpected events occur or when control errors disturb the behaviour of the system. To deal with such uncertainties, a new approach based on discrete time Markov decision processes (MDPs has been proposed that associates the modelling power of PNs with the planning power of MDPs. Finally, the simulation results illustrate the benefit of our method from the computational point of view. (original abstract

  12. Accelerated decomposition techniques for large discounted Markov decision processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larach, Abdelhadi; Chafik, S.; Daoui, C.

    2017-12-01

    Many hierarchical techniques to solve large Markov decision processes (MDPs) are based on the partition of the state space into strongly connected components (SCCs) that can be classified into some levels. In each level, smaller problems named restricted MDPs are solved, and then these partial solutions are combined to obtain the global solution. In this paper, we first propose a novel algorithm, which is a variant of Tarjan's algorithm that simultaneously finds the SCCs and their belonging levels. Second, a new definition of the restricted MDPs is presented to ameliorate some hierarchical solutions in discounted MDPs using value iteration (VI) algorithm based on a list of state-action successors. Finally, a robotic motion-planning example and the experiment results are presented to illustrate the benefit of the proposed decomposition algorithms.

  13. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  14. Discovering Decision Knowledge from Web Log Portfolio for Managing Classroom Processes by Applying Decision Tree and Data Cube Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Gwo-Dong; Liu, Chen-Chung; Ou, Kuo-Liang; Liu, Baw-Jhiune

    2000-01-01

    Discusses the use of Web logs to record student behavior that can assist teachers in assessing performance and making curriculum decisions for distance learning students who are using Web-based learning systems. Adopts decision tree and data cube information processing methodologies for developing more effective pedagogical strategies. (LRW)

  15. Credible decision-making regarding the management of spent nuclear fuel -four key questions concerning the decision-making process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaaberger, T. [Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (Sweden)

    1995-12-01

    The author starts by questioning the need for an EIA, since he sees a common attitude that the EIA is a tool for getting the community to accept the implementation of decisions that have already been made, and not a rational, organized way of achieving a basis for decision-making. A question of decisive importance for the relevancy of an EIA is whether (or not) the decisions already have been made, and the author points at indications which he believes support this view. Finally, arguments for delegating the EIA process to an external body are given.

  16. Credible decision-making regarding the management of spent nuclear fuel -four key questions concerning the decision-making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaaberger, T.

    1995-01-01

    The author starts by questioning the need for an EIA, since he sees a common attitude that the EIA is a tool for getting the community to accept the implementation of decisions that have already been made, and not a rational, organized way of achieving a basis for decision-making. A question of decisive importance for the relevancy of an EIA is whether (or not) the decisions already have been made, and the author points at indications which he believes support this view. Finally, arguments for delegating the EIA process to an external body are given

  17. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sedlak, J.

    2001-12-01

    The report is structured as follows: 1. Risk-based safety indicators: Typology of risk-based indicators (RBIs); Tools for defining RBIs; Requirements for the PSA model; Data sources for RBIs; Types of risks monitored; RBIs and operational safety indicators; Feedback from operating experience; PSO model modification for RBIs; RBI categorization; RBI assessment; RBI applications; Suitable RBI applications. 2. Proposal for risk-based indicators: Acquiring information from operational experience; Method of acquiring safety relevance coefficients for the systems from a PSA model; Indicator definitions; On-line indicators. 3. Annex: Application of RBIs worldwide. (P.A.)

  18. Selective exposure to information: how different modes of decision making affect subsequent confirmatory information processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Peter; Fischer, Julia; Weisweiler, Silke; Frey, Dieter

    2010-12-01

    We investigated whether different modes of decision making (deliberate, intuitive, distracted) affect subsequent confirmatory processing of decision-consistent and inconsistent information. Participants showed higher levels of confirmatory information processing when they made a deliberate or an intuitive decision versus a decision under distraction (Studies 1 and 2). As soon as participants have a cognitive (i.e., deliberate cognitive analysis) or affective (i.e., intuitive and gut feeling) reason for their decision, the subjective confidence in the validity of their decision increases, which results in increased levels of confirmatory information processing (Study 2). In contrast, when participants are distracted during decision making, they are less certain about the validity of their decision and thus are subsequently more balanced in the processing of decision-relevant information.

  19. Transparency in decision-making processes governing hazardous activities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, B.; Jensen, K.K.; Sandøe, P.

    2007-01-01

    Transparent decisions are decisions in which the decision maker clearly presents to others the normative and factual premises behind the conclusions and explains the reasoning leading from these premises to the conclusion. Transparency thus involves uncovering, describing, documenting...... and communicating all the argumentative steps in the line of reasoning. It also involves acknowledging the weighting of any evidence drawn upon in reaching the final decision. It is recommended that each decision should be accompanied by an audit trail describing the premises justifying it. Uncertainties should...

  20. Risk-based prioritization at Hanford Nuclear Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.; Mosely, M.T.

    1995-11-01

    This paper describes the method used to incorporate risk-based decision making into the Hanford resource allocation process. This method, the Revised Priority Planning Grid, is used as a tool to calculate benefits and benefit-to-cost ratios for comparison of environmental cleanup activities. The tool is based on Hanford Site objectives. Benefits are determined by estimating the impact on those objectives resulting from funding specific environmental management activities. Impacts are also a function of the weights associated with the objectives. These weights in the Revised Priority Planning Grid reflect US Development of Energy management values, which were obtained through a formal value-elicitation process. With modification to the objectives and weights, the Revised Priority Planning Grid could be used in different situations. By factoring in environmental, safety, and health risk and assigning higher scores to those activities that provide the most benefit, the Revised Priority Planning Grid is a reproducible, scientific way of scoring competing activities or interests

  1. Titrating decision processes in the mental rotation task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provost, Alexander; Heathcote, Andrew

    2015-10-01

    Shepard and Metzler's (1971) seminal mental-rotation task-which requires participants to decide if 1 object is a rotated version of another or its mirror image-has played a central role in the study of spatial cognition. We provide the first quantitative model of behavior in this task that is comprehensive in the sense of simultaneously providing an account of both error rates and the full distribution of response times. We used Brown and Heathcote's (2008) model of choice processing to separate out the contributions of mental rotation and decision stages. This model-based titration process was applied to data from a paradigm where converging evidence supported performance being based on rotation rather than other strategies. Stimuli were similar to Shepard and Metzler's block figures except a long major axis made rotation angle well defined for mirror stimuli, enabling comprehensive modeling of both mirror and normal responses. Results supported a mental rotation stage based on Larsen's (2014) model, where rotation takes a variable amount of time with a mean and variance that increase linearly with rotation angle. Differences in response threshold differences were largely responsible for mirror responses being slowed, and for errors increasing with rotation angle for some participants. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Space Launch System Complex Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyles, Garry; Flores, Tim; Hundley, Jason; Monk, Timothy; Feldman,Stuart

    2012-01-01

    The Space Shuttle program has ended and elements of the Constellation Program have either been cancelled or transitioned to new NASA exploration endeavors. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has worked diligently to select an optimum configuration for the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that will provide the foundation for future beyond low earth orbit (LEO) large-scale missions for the next several decades. From Fall 2010 until Spring 2011, an SLS decision-making framework was formulated, tested, fully documented, and applied to multiple SLS vehicle concepts at NASA from previous exploration architecture studies. This was a multistep process that involved performing figure of merit (FOM)-based assessments, creating Pass/Fail gates based on draft threshold requirements, performing a margin-based assessment with supporting statistical analyses, and performing sensitivity analysis on each. This paper focuses on the various steps and methods of this process (rather than specific data) that allowed for competing concepts to be compared across a variety of launch vehicle metrics in support of the successful completion of the SLS Mission Concept Review (MCR) milestone.

  3. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marewski, Julian N.; Mehlhorn, Katja

    Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a

  4. Age Differences in Dual Information-Processing Modes: Implications for Cancer Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Ellen; Diefenbach, Michael A.; Hess, Thomas M.; Västfjäll, Daniel

    2008-01-01

    Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for cancer decision making as cancer is often a disease of older adulthood. We examine evidence for adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes, review the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making and introduce how dual process theories and their findings might be applied to cancer decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age, particularly when decisions are unfamiliar and the information is numeric. However, age-related adaptive processes, including an increased focus on emotional goals and greater experience, can influence decision making and potentially offset age-related declines. A better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie cancer decision processes in our aging population should ultimately allow us to help older adults to better help themselves. PMID:19058148

  5. Age differences in dual information-processing modes: implications for cancer decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Ellen; Diefenbach, Michael A; Hess, Thomas M; Västfjäll, Daniel

    2008-12-15

    Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for cancer decision making, as cancer is often a disease of older adulthood. The authors examined evidence for adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes, reviewed the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making, and introduced how dual process theories and their findings might be applied to cancer decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age, particularly when decisions are unfamiliar and the information is numeric. However, age-related adaptive processes, including an increased focus on emotional goals and greater experience, can influence decision making and potentially offset age-related declines. A better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie cancer decision processes in our aging population should ultimately allow us to help older adults to better help themselves.

  6. The future of host cell protein (HCP) identification during process development and manufacturing linked to a risk-based management for their control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracewell, Daniel G; Francis, Richard; Smales, C Mark

    2015-09-01

    The use of biological systems to synthesize complex therapeutic products has been a remarkable success. However, during product development, great attention must be devoted to defining acceptable levels of impurities that derive from that biological system, heading this list are host cell proteins (HCPs). Recent advances in proteomic analytics have shown how diverse this class of impurities is; as such knowledge and capability grows inevitable questions have arisen about how thorough current approaches to measuring HCPs are. The fundamental issue is how to adequately measure (and in turn monitor and control) such a large number of protein species (potentially thousands of components) to ensure safe and efficacious products. A rather elegant solution is to use an immunoassay (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay [ELISA]) based on polyclonal antibodies raised to the host cell (biological system) used to synthesize a particular therapeutic product. However, the measurement is entirely dependent on the antibody serum used, which dictates the sensitivity of the assay and the degree of coverage of the HCP spectrum. It provides one summed analog value for HCP amount; a positive if all HCP components can be considered equal, a negative in the more likely event one associates greater risk with certain components of the HCP proteome. In a thorough risk-based approach, one would wish to be able to account for this. These issues have led to the investigation of orthogonal analytical methods; most prominently mass spectrometry. These techniques can potentially both identify and quantify HCPs. The ability to measure and monitor thousands of proteins proportionally increases the amount of data acquired. Significant benefits exist if the information can be used to determine critical HCPs and thereby create an improved basis for risk management. We describe a nascent approach to risk assessment of HCPs based upon such data, drawing attention to timeliness in relation to biosimilar

  7. The application of Markov decision process in restaurant delivery robot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yong; Hu, Zhen; Wang, Ying

    2017-05-01

    As the restaurant delivery robot is often in a dynamic and complex environment, including the chairs inadvertently moved to the channel and customers coming and going. The traditional path planning algorithm is not very ideal. To solve this problem, this paper proposes the Markov dynamic state immediate reward (MDR) path planning algorithm according to the traditional Markov decision process. First of all, it uses MDR to plan a global path, then navigates along this path. When the sensor detects there is no obstructions in front state, increase its immediate state reward value; when the sensor detects there is an obstacle in front, plan a global path that can avoid obstacle with the current position as the new starting point and reduce its state immediate reward value. This continues until the target is reached. When the robot learns for a period of time, it can avoid those places where obstacles are often present when planning the path. By analyzing the simulation experiment, the algorithm has achieved good results in the global path planning under the dynamic environment.

  8. Dynamics Of Innovation Diffusion With Two Step Decision Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymczyk Michał

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the dynamics of innovation diffusion among heterogeneous consumers. We assume that customers’ decision making process is divided into two steps: testing the innovation and later potential adopting. Such a model setup is designed to imitate the mobile applications market. An innovation provider, to some extent, can control the innovation diffusion by two parameters: product quality and marketing activity. Using the multi-agent approach we identify factors influencing the saturation level and the speed of innovation adaptation in the artificial population. The results show that the expected level of innovation adoption among customer’s friends and relative product quality and marketing campaign intensity are crucial factors explaining them. It has to be stressed that the product quality is more important for innovation saturation level and marketing campaign has bigger influence on the speed of diffusion. The topology of social network between customers is found important, but within investigated parameter range it has lover impact on innovation diffusion dynamics than the above mentioned factors

  9. Realistic decision-making processes in a vaccination game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwamura, Yoshiro; Tanimoto, Jun

    2018-03-01

    Previous studies of vaccination games have nearly always assumed a pairwise comparison between a focal and neighboring player for the strategy updating rule, which comes from numerous compiled studies on spatial versions of 2-player and 2-strategy (2 × 2) games such as the spatial prisoner's dilemma (SPD). We propose, in this study, new update rules because the human decision-making process of whether to commit to a vaccination is obviously influenced by a "sense of crisis" or "fear" urging him/her toward vaccination, otherwise they will likely be infected. The rule assumes that an agent evaluates whether getting a vaccination or trying to free ride should be attempted based on observations of whether neighboring non-vaccinators were able to successfully free ride during the previous time-step. Compared to the conventional updating rule (standard pairwise comparison assuming a Fermi function), the new rules generally realize higher vaccination coverage and smaller final epidemic sizes. One rule in particular shows very good performance with significantly smaller epidemic sizes despite comparable levels of vaccination coverage. This is because the specific update rule helps vaccinators spread widely in the domain, which effectively hampers the spread of epidemics.

  10. Structure and analysis of IS decision-making processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonstra, A.

    Decisions to invest in information systems (IS) are made by many organisations on a very regular basis. Such decisions can vary from quickly identifying the problem, screening options and choosing a solution in a very straightforward way, to very extensive and repeated search, screen, design and

  11. An empirical taxonomy of IS decision-making processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonstra, Albert

    2004-01-01

    Decisions to invest in information systems (IS) are made by many organisations on a very regular basis. Such decisions can vary from quickly identifying the problem, screening options and choosing a solution in a very straightforward way, to very extensive and repeated search, screen, design and

  12. Analysis of the decision-making process of nurse managers: a collective reflection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eduardo, Elizabete Araujo; Peres, Aida Maris; de Almeida, Maria de Lourdes; Roglio, Karina de Dea; Bernardino, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    to analyze the decision-making model adopted by nurses from the perspective of some decision-making process theories. qualitative approach, based on action research. Semi-structured questionnaires and seminars were conducted from April to June 2012 in order to understand the nature of decisions and the decision-making process of nine nurses in position of managers at a public hospital in Southern Brazil. Data were subjected to content analysis. data were classified in two categories: the current situation of decision-making, which showed a lack of systematization; the construction and collective decision-making, which emphasizes the need to develop a decision-making model. the decision-making model used by nurses is limited because it does not consider two important factors: the limits of human rationality, and the external and internal organizational environments that influence and determine right decisions.

  13. Monitoring in the nearshore: A process for making reasoned decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodkin, James L.; Dean, T.A.

    2003-01-01

    Over the past several years, a conceptual framework for the GEM nearshore monitoring program has been developed through a series of workshops. However, details of the proposed monitoring program, e.g. what to sample, where to sample, when to sample and at how many sites, have yet to be determined. In FY 03 we were funded under Project 03687 to outline a process whereby specific alternatives to monitoring are developed and presented to the EVOS Trustee Council for consideration. As part of this process, two key elements are required before reasoned decisions can be made. These are: 1) a comprehensive historical perspective of locations and types of past studies conducted in the nearshore marine communities within Gulf of Alaska, and 2) estimates of costs for each element of a proposed monitoring program. We have developed a GIS database that details available information from past studies of selected nearshore habitats and species in the Gulf of Alaska and provide a visual means of selecting sites based (in part) on the locations for which historical data of interest are available. We also provide cost estimates for specific monitoring plan alternatives and outline several alternative plans that can be accomplished within reasonable budgetary constraints. The products that we will provide are: 1) A GIS database and maps showing the location and types of information available from the nearshore in the Gulf of Alaska; 2) A list of several specific monitoring alternatives that can be conducted within reasonable budgetary constraints; and 3) Cost estimates for proposed tasks to be conducted as part of the nearshore program. Because data compilation and management will not be completed until late in FY03 we are requesting support for close-out of this project in FY 04.

  14. Caregiving decision making by older mothers and adult children: process and expected outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cicirelli, Victor G

    2006-06-01

    Dyadic caregiving decision making was studied in 30 mother-son and 29 mother-daughter pairs (mother's age=65-94 years) who responded to a vignette depicting a caregiving decision situation. The observed decision-making process of mother-child pairs was largely naturalistic, with few alternatives proposed and quick convergence to a decision followed by a postdecision justification; a degree of more rational decision making was seen in some pairs. Among significant findings, adult children, especially sons, dominated the decision process, doing more talking and introducing more alternatives than did their mothers, who played a more subordinate role. Mother-son pairs expected more negative outcomes and greater regrets regarding their decisions than mother-daughter pairs. Closeness of the parent-child relationship influenced the decision-making process, expected outcomes, and regrets. Copyright (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved.

  15. Risk-based and deterministic regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, L.E.; Brown, N.W.

    1995-07-01

    Both risk-based and deterministic methods are used for regulating the nuclear industry to protect the public safety and health from undue risk. The deterministic method is one where performance standards are specified for each kind of nuclear system or facility. The deterministic performance standards address normal operations and design basis events which include transient and accident conditions. The risk-based method uses probabilistic risk assessment methods to supplement the deterministic one by (1) addressing all possible events (including those beyond the design basis events), (2) using a systematic, logical process for identifying and evaluating accidents, and (3) considering alternative means to reduce accident frequency and/or consequences. Although both deterministic and risk-based methods have been successfully applied, there is need for a better understanding of their applications and supportive roles. This paper describes the relationship between the two methods and how they are used to develop and assess regulations in the nuclear industry. Preliminary guidance is suggested for determining the need for using risk based methods to supplement deterministic ones. However, it is recommended that more detailed guidance and criteria be developed for this purpose

  16. Decision-making process of prenatal screening described by pregnant women and their partners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wätterbjörk, Inger; Blomberg, Karin; Nilsson, Kerstin; Sahlberg-Blom, Eva

    2015-10-01

    Pregnant women are often faced with having to decide about prenatal screening for Down's syndrome. However, the decision to participate in or refrain from prenatal screening can be seen as an important decision not only for the pregnant woman but also for both the partners. The aim of this study was to explore the couples' processes of decision making about prenatal screening. A total of 37 semi-structured interviews conducted at two time points were analysed using the interpretive description. The study was carried out in Maternal health-care centres, Örebro County Council, Sweden. Fifteen couples of different ages and with different experiences of pregnancy and childbirth were interviewed. Three different patterns of decision making were identified. For the couples in 'The open and communicative decision-making process', the process was straightforward and rational, and the couples discussed the decision with each other. 'The closed and personal decision-making process' showed an immediate and non-communicative decision making where the couples decided each for themselves. The couples showing 'The searching and communicative decision-making process' followed an arduous road in deciding whether to participate or not in prenatal screening and how to cope with the result. The decision-making process was for some couples a fairly straightforward decision, while for others it was a more complex process that required a great deal of consideration. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Who decides? The decision-making process of juvenile judges concerning minors with mental disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappon, Leen

    2016-01-01

    Previous research on juvenile judges' decision-making process has neglected the role of the different actors involved in judicial procedures. The decision can be considered as a result of information exchange between the different actors involved. The process of making a decision is equally important as the decision itself, especially when the decision considers minors with mental disorders. The presence and the type of interaction determine the information available to the juvenile judges to make their final decision. The overall aim of this study is to gain insight into the role of all actors, including the juvenile judge, in the juvenile judge's decision-making process in cases relating to minors with mental disorders. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with professional actors (n=32), minors (n=31) and parents (n=17). The findings indicated that the judge's decision is overall the result of an interaction between the juvenile judge, the social services investigator and the youth psychiatrist. The other professional actors, the minors and the parents had only a limited role in the decision-making process. The research concludes that the judge's decision-making process should be based on dialogue, and requires enhanced collaboration between the juvenile court and youth psychiatrists from mental health services. Future decision-making research should pay more attention to the interactions of the actors that guide a juvenile judge's decision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk-based inspection--Development of guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-07-01

    Effective inservice inspection programs can play a significant role in minimizing equipment and structural failures. Most of the current inservice inspection programs for light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant components are based on experience and engineers' qualitative judgment. These programs include only an implicit consideration of risk, which combines the probability of failure of a component under its operation and loading conditions and the consequences of such failure, if it occurs. This document recommends appropriate methods for establishing a risk-based inspection program for LWR nuclear power plant components. The process has been built from a general methodology (Volume 1) and has been expanded to involve five major steps: defining the system; evaluating qualitative risk assessment results; using this and information from plant probabilistic risk assessments to perform a quantitative risk analysis; selecting target failure probabilities; and developing an inspection program for components using economic decision analysis and structural reliability assessment methods

  19. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  20. Process of making decisions on loan currency: Influence of representativeness on information processing and coherence with consumption motives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anđelković Dragan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Rationality of decision maker is often reduced by heuristics and biases, and also by different types of external stimuli. In decision-making process individuals simplify phases of information selection and information processing by using heuristics, simple rules which are focused on one aspect of complex problem and ignore other aspects, and in that way 'speed up' decision-making process. This method of making decisions, although efficient in making simple decisions, can lead to mistakes in probability assessment and diminish rationality of decision maker. In that way it can influence drastically on transaction outcome for which decision is being made. The subject of this study is influence of representativeness heuristic on making financial decisions by individuals, and influence of consumption motives on stereotypical elements in information processing phase. Study was conducted by determining attitudes of respondents toward currencies, and then by conducting experiments with aim of analyzing method of making decisions on loan currency. Aim of study was determining whether and to what extent representativeness influence choice of currency in process of making loan decisions. Results of conducted behavioral experiments show that respondents, opposite to rational model, do not asses probability by processing available information and in accordance with their preferences, but by comparing decision objects with other objects which have same attributes, showing in that way moderate positive correlation between stereotypical attitudes and choice of loan currency. Experiments have shown that instrumental motive significantly influence representativeness heuristics, that is, individuals are prone to process information with diminished influence of stereotypical attitudes caused by external stimuli, in situations where there is no so called 'hedonistic decision-making'. Respondents have been making more efficient decisions if they had motive which does

  1. Decision Making Processes for Global Product Development - a Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergaard, Erik Stefan; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2015-01-01

    Global Product Development (GPD), outsourcing and offshoring of product development is a widespread phenomenon on today’s global economy, and consequently most engineering manufacturing companies will have to make decisions regarding how to organise their product development activities globally...

  2. Conformity and Internalisation in a Participative Decision Making Process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bombaerts, Gunter

    2003-01-01

    This paper reflects upon the stretching concept of the RISCOM model. We agree with the Habermassian point of departure that a competent speaker makes validity claims on truth, legitimacy and authenticity and partially with the Dialogue Project's conclusions that opening the black box of science is not possible in a decision making process (DMP) on a highly technical issue. Accordingly, we see an important role for a regulator to stretch the implementer, i.e. balance commercial and guardian ethics in the DMP. However, some caution is needed. Conformity studies indicate the large influence of group norms on individuals. When individuals lack personal reference frames of a particular issue they are prone to conform. The more values are shared, the more group members are convinced of the correctness. And social psychology shows more. In studies on persuasion, a difference between compliance and internalisation is made. Compliance is attained from rewards and coercive sources of power, whereas internalisation originates from expertise, legitimacy and credibility. Because of the shift to legitimacy and authenticity in the DMP, alignment of the norms and internalisation of discussed values becomes more apparent in the RISCOM participation model. Conformity reactions and possible internalisation are normal aspect of human interaction and not necessarily a negative aspect of public involvement. But keeping the importance of conformity in mind, a few consequences can be mentioned with regard to the relation implementer-regulator, the non-participation majority, and non-participating critics. The new role of the regulator and the involved public in the RISCOM mode] cannot absolutely avoid the risks due to conformity, it can only decrease the conformity influence

  3. Group Decision Making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process in Benefit-Risk Assessment: A Tutorial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hummel, J. Marjan; Bridges, John; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria.

  4. Theoretical Background for the Decision-Making Process Modelling under Controlled Intervention Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Bakanauskienė Irena; Baronienė Laura

    2017-01-01

    This article is intended to theoretically justify the decision-making process model for the cases, when active participation of investing entities in controlling the activities of an organisation and their results is noticeable. Based on scientific literature analysis, a concept of controlled conditions is formulated, and using a rational approach to the decision-making process, a model of the 11-steps decision-making process under controlled intervention is presented. Also, there have been u...

  5. Decision making for wildfires: A guide for applying a risk management process at the incident level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary A. Taber; Lisa M. Elenz; Paul G. Langowski

    2013-01-01

    This publication focuses on the thought processes and considerations surrounding a risk management process for decision making on wildfires. The publication introduces a six element risk management cycle designed to encourage sound risk-informed decision making in accordance with Federal wildland fire policy, although the process is equally applicable to non-Federal...

  6. Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

  7. Theoretical Background for the Decision-Making Process Modelling under Controlled Intervention Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanauskienė Irena

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is intended to theoretically justify the decision-making process model for the cases, when active participation of investing entities in controlling the activities of an organisation and their results is noticeable. Based on scientific literature analysis, a concept of controlled conditions is formulated, and using a rational approach to the decision-making process, a model of the 11-steps decision-making process under controlled intervention is presented. Also, there have been unified conditions, describing the case of controlled interventions thus providing preconditions to ensure the adequacy of the proposed decision-making process model.

  8. A risk-based approach for identifying constituents of concern in oil sands process-affected water from the Athabasca Oil Sands region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQueen, Andrew D; Kinley, Ciera M; Hendrikse, Maas; Gaspari, Daniel P; Calomeni, Alyssa J; Iwinski, Kyla J; Castle, James W; Haakensen, Monique C; Peru, Kerry M; Headley, John V; Rodgers, John H

    2017-04-01

    Mining leases in the Athabasca Oil Sands (AOS) region produce large volumes of oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) containing constituents that limit beneficial uses and discharge into receiving systems. The aim of this research is to identify constituents of concern (COCs) in OSPW sourced from an active settling basin with the goal of providing a sound rational for developing mitigation strategies for using constructed treatment wetlands for COCs contained in OSPW. COCs were identified through several lines of evidence: 1) chemical and physical characterization of OSPW and comparisons with numeric water quality guidelines and toxicity endpoints, 2) measuring toxicity of OSPW using a taxonomic range of sentinel organisms (i.e. fish, aquatic invertebrates, and a macrophyte), 3) conducting process-based manipulations (PBMs) of OSPW to alter toxicity and inform treatment processes, and 4) discerning potential treatment pathways to mitigate ecological risks of OSPW based on identification of COCs, toxicological analyses, and PBM results. COCs identified in OSPW included organics (naphthenic acids [NAs], oil and grease [O/G]), metals/metalloids, and suspended solids. In terms of species sensitivities to undiluted OSPW, fish ≥ aquatic invertebrates > macrophytes. Bench-scale manipulations of the organic fractions of OSPW via PBMs (i.e. H 2 O 2 +UV 254 and granular activated charcoal treatments) eliminated toxicity to Ceriodaphnia dubia (7-8 d), in terms of mortality and reproduction. Results from this study provide critical information to inform mitigation strategies using passive or semi-passive treatment processes (e.g., constructed treatment wetlands) to mitigate ecological risks of OSPW to aquatic organisms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, T.H.

    1995-12-31

    By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

  10. An exploration of decision aid effectiveness: the impact of promoting affective vs. deliberative processing on a health-related decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Esther L; McCaffery, Kirsten; Mullan, Barbara; Juraskova, Ilona

    2015-12-01

    Decision aids (DAs) are non-directive communication tools that help patients make value-consistent health-care decisions. However, most DAs have been developed without an explicit theoretical framework, resulting in a lack of understanding of how DAs achieve outcomes. To investigate the effect of promoting affective vs. deliberative processing on DA effectiveness based on dual-process theory. One hundred and forty-eight female university students participated in a randomized controlled experiment with three conditions: emotion-focused, information-focused and control. Preference-value consistency, knowledge, decisional conflict and satisfaction were compared across the conditions using planned contrast analyses. The intervention comprised two different DAs and instructional manipulations. The emotion-focused condition received a modified DA with affective content and instructions to induce an affective reaction. The information-focused and control conditions received the same DA without the affective content. The information-focused condition received additional instructions to induce deliberative processing. Controlling for the experiment-wise error rate at P processing may hinder value-consistent decision making, while deliberative processing may enhance decisional satisfaction. This investigation of the effect of affective and deliberative processes in DA-supported decision making has implications for the design and use of DAs. DA effectiveness may be enhanced by incorporating a simple instruction to focus on the details of the information. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warnke, T.; Reinhardt, O.; Klabunde, A.; Willekens, F.J.; Uhrmacher, A.

    2017-01-01

    Individuals’ decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for

  12. Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California: A Framework for Objectively Leveraging Weather and Climate Forecasts in a Decision Support Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.

    2017-12-01

    Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation and flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. The Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) alternative is a probabilistic approach of FIRO that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, release decisions are made to manage forecasted risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC. The ESP hindcast was developed using Global Ensemble Forecast System version 10 precipitation reforecasts processed with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System to generate daily reforecasts of 61 flow ensemble members for a 15-day forecast horizon. Model simulation results demonstrate that the EFO alternative may improve water supply reliability for Lake Mendocino yet not increase flood risk for downstream areas. The developed operations framework can directly leverage improved skill in the second week of the forecast and is extendable into the S2S time domain given the demonstration of improved skill through a reliable reforecast of adequate historical duration and consistent with operationally available numerical weather predictions.

  13. Multi-site risk-based project planning, optimization, sequencing and budgeting process and tool for the integrated facility disposition project - 59394

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, Jerel; Castillo, Carlos; Huntsman, Julie; Lucek, Heather; Marks, Tim

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: Faced with the DOE Complex Transformation, NNSA was tasked with developing an integrated plan for the decommissioning of over 400 facilities and 300 environmental remediation units, as well as the many reconfiguration and modernization projects at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Y-12 Complex. Manual scheduling of remediation activities is time-consuming, labor intensive, and inherently introduces bias and unaccounted for aspects of the scheduler or organization in the process. Clearly a tool was needed to develop an objective, unbiased baseline optimized project sequence and schedule with a sound technical foundation for the Integrated Facility Disposition Project (IFDP). In generating an integrated disposition schedule, each project (including facilities, environmental sites, and remedial action units) was identified, characterized, then ranked relative to other projects. Risk matrices allowed for core project data to be extrapolated into probable contamination levels, relative risks to the public, and other technical and risk parameters to be used in the development of an overall ranking. These matrices ultimately generated a complete data set that were used in the Ranking and Sequencing Model (RSM), commonly referred to as the SUPER model, for its numerous abilities to support D and D planning, prioritization, and sequencing

  14. Child Migration Decision Making in Ghana: The Actors and Processes

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agribotix GCS 077

    The discourse on child migration decision making tends to present children as vulnerable and .... methods approach in a family migration research project with 37 families who moved within .... system (Hart, 1971), with many members living in common compounds in different household ... including housing, transport, water.

  15. Do just world believers process unfair authoritative decisions differently?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagedoorn, M.; Buunk, B.P.; van de Vliert, E.

    This experiment examined whether the frequently observed interactive effect of outcome favorability or fairness and procedural desirability or fairness on perceptions of and reactions to decisions of authorities might be the consequence of people's need to believe in a just world. One hundred and

  16. Health technology funding decision-making processes around the world: the same, yet different.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stafinski, Tania; Menon, Devidas; Philippon, Donald J; McCabe, Christopher

    2011-06-01

    All healthcare systems routinely make resource allocation decisions that trade off potential health gains to different patient populations. However, when such trade-offs relate to the introduction of new, promising health technologies, perceived 'winners' and 'losers' are more apparent. In recent years, public scrutiny over such decisions has intensified, raising the need to better understand how they are currently made and how they might be improved. The objective of this paper is to critically review and compare current processes for making health technology funding decisions at the regional, state/provincial and national level in 20 countries. A comprehensive search for published, peer-reviewed and grey literature describing actual national, state/provincial and regional/institutional technology decision-making processes was conducted. Information was extracted by two independent reviewers and tabulated to facilitate qualitative comparative analyses. To identify strengths and weaknesses of processes identified, websites of corresponding organizations were searched for commissioned reviews/evaluations, which were subsequently analysed using standard qualitative methods. A total of 21 national, four provincial/state and six regional/institutional-level processes were found. Although information on each one varied, they could be grouped into four sequential categories: (i) identification of the decision problem; (ii) information inputs; (iii) elements of the decision-making process; and (iv) public accountability and decision implementation. While information requirements of all processes appeared substantial and decision-making factors comprehensive, the way in which they were utilized was often unclear, as were approaches used to incorporate social values or equity arguments into decisions. A comprehensive inventory of approaches to implementing the four main components of all technology funding decision-making processes was compiled, from which areas for future

  17. Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warnke, Tom; Reinhardt, Oliver; Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans; Uhrmacher, Adelinde M

    2017-10-01

    Individuals' decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for Linked Lives (ML3) to describe the diverse decision processes of linked lives succinctly in continuous time. The context of individuals is modelled by networks the individual is part of, such as family ties and other social networks. Central concepts, such as behaviour conditional on agent attributes, age-dependent behaviour, and stochastic waiting times, are tightly integrated in the language. Thereby, alternative decisions are modelled by concurrent processes that compete by stochastic race. Using a migration model, we demonstrate how this allows for compact description of complex decisions, here based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We describe the challenges for the simulation algorithm posed by stochastic race between multiple concurrent complex decisions.

  18. Decision process in MCDM with large number of criteria and heterogeneous risk preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Liu

    Full Text Available A new decision process is proposed to address the challenge that a large number criteria in the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM problem and the decision makers with heterogeneous risk preferences. First, from the perspective of objective data, the effective criteria are extracted based on the similarity relations between criterion values and the criteria are weighted, respectively. Second, the corresponding types of theoretic model of risk preferences expectations will be built, based on the possibility and similarity between criterion values to solve the problem for different interval numbers with the same expectation. Then, the risk preferences (Risk-seeking, risk-neutral and risk-aversion will be embedded in the decision process. Later, the optimal decision object is selected according to the risk preferences of decision makers based on the corresponding theoretic model. Finally, a new algorithm of information aggregation model is proposed based on fairness maximization of decision results for the group decision, considering the coexistence of decision makers with heterogeneous risk preferences. The scientific rationality verification of this new method is given through the analysis of real case. Keywords: Heterogeneous, Risk preferences, Fairness, Decision process, Group decision

  19. Data quality and processing for decision making: divergence between corporate strategy and manufacturing processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeil, Ronald D.; Miele, Renato; Shaul, Dennis

    2000-10-01

    Information technology is driving improvements in manufacturing systems. Results are higher productivity and quality. However, corporate strategy is driven by a number of factors and includes data and pressure from multiple stakeholders, which includes employees, managers, executives, stockholders, boards, suppliers and customers. It is also driven by information about competitors and emerging technology. Much information is based on processing of data and the resulting biases of the processors. Thus, stakeholders can base inputs on faulty perceptions, which are not reality based. Prior to processing, data used may be inaccurate. Sources of data and information may include demographic reports, statistical analyses, intelligence reports (e.g., marketing data), technology and primary data collection. The reliability and validity of data as well as the management of sources and information is critical element to strategy formulation. The paper explores data collection, processing and analyses from secondary and primary sources, information generation and report presentation for strategy formulation and contrast this with data and information utilized to drive internal process such as manufacturing. The hypothesis is that internal process, such as manufacturing, are subordinate to corporate strategies. The impact of possible divergence in quality of decisions at the corporate level on IT driven, quality-manufacturing processes based on measurable outcomes is significant. Recommendations for IT improvements at the corporate strategy level are given.

  20. Strategic environmental assessment and the limits to rationality in decision making processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone

    The paper focueses on the subject of rationality in decision making processes and the implications for the integration of SEA.......The paper focueses on the subject of rationality in decision making processes and the implications for the integration of SEA....

  1. 44 CFR Appendix A to Part 9 - Decision-making Process for E.O. 11988

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Decision-making Process for E.O. 11988 A Appendix A to Part 9 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT..., App. A Appendix A to Part 9—Decision-making Process for E.O. 11988 EC02FE91.074 ...

  2. System and method for integrating hazard-based decision making tools and processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgin, C Reed [Westminster, CO

    2012-03-20

    A system and method for inputting, analyzing, and disseminating information necessary for identified decision-makers to respond to emergency situations. This system and method provides consistency and integration among multiple groups, and may be used for both initial consequence-based decisions and follow-on consequence-based decisions. The system and method in a preferred embodiment also provides tools for accessing and manipulating information that are appropriate for each decision-maker, in order to achieve more reasoned and timely consequence-based decisions. The invention includes processes for designing and implementing a system or method for responding to emergency situations.

  3. Session 2 report the process of decision making in Finland: Its history and outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aebersold, M.

    2002-01-01

    The round-table discussions focussed on three questions: what were the most important steps in the decision-making process for the different stakeholders? What influenced the process and the outcome? What are the lessons learnt? (authors)

  4. CapDEM TDP - DND Capability Decision-Making Process: the As-Is

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Harvey, Gaetane; Leclerc, Jocelyn; Dussault, Genevieve

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe the current DND/CF Acquisition process as well as the associated decision-making process in order to provide the project team with a common understanding...

  5. RIMAP demonstration project. Risk-based life management of piping system in power plant Heilbronn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bareiss, J.; Buck, P.; Matschecko, B.; Jovanovic, A.; Balos, D.; Perunicic, M.

    2004-01-01

    In the framework of EU project RIMAP [Risk Based Inspection and Maintenance Procedures for European Industry (2000)] a new European Guideline for optimized risk based maintenance and inspection planning of industrial plants (RBLM, Risk Based Life Management) is being developed. The RIMAP project consists of the three clustered projects: - development (RTD); - demonstration (DEMO): - thematic network (TN). Current work and future, planned work in RIMAP demonstration project on applications of the RIMAP methodology in power plants are presented briefly in the first part of the paper. Also presented in the paper are the results of a preliminary analysis of piping system in power plant Heilbronn using the concept of risk-based monitoring as part of overall concept of risk-based life management. Shortly the following issues are discussed in the paper: - identification of critical components; - application of a multilevel risk analysis (...from 'screening' to 'detailed analysis'); - determination of PoF (Probability of Failure); - determination of CoF (Consequence of Failure); - optimation of inspection and maintenance plan. From our experience with the application of the RIMAP methodology the following conclusions can be drawn: The use of risk-based methods in inspection and maintenance of piping systems in power plants gives transparency to the decision making process and gives an optimized maintenance policy based on current state of the components. The results of the work clearly show the power of the proposed method for concentration on critical items: out of 64 monitored components 5 were selected for intermediate analysis and only 1 for the detailed analysis (probabilistic high temperature fracture mechanics)

  6. Artificial Intelligence Framework for Simulating Clinical Decision-Making: A Markov Decision Process Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Bennett, Casey C.; Hauser, Kris

    2013-01-01

    In the modern healthcare system, rapidly expanding costs/complexity, the growing myriad of treatment options, and exploding information streams that often do not effectively reach the front lines hinder the ability to choose optimal treatment decisions over time. The goal in this paper is to develop a general purpose (non-disease-specific) computational/artificial intelligence (AI) framework to address these challenges. This serves two potential functions: 1) a simulation environment for expl...

  7. Balancing Information Analysis and Decision Value: A Model to Exploit the Decision Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    technical intelli- gence e.g. signals and sensors (SIGINT and MASINT), imagery (!MINT), as well and human and open source intelligence (HUMINT and OSINT ...Clark 2006). The ability to capture large amounts of da- ta and the plenitude of modem intelligence information sources provides a rich cache of...many tech- niques for managing information collected and derived from these sources , the exploitation of intelligence assets for decision-making

  8. A model-referenced procedure to support adversarial decision processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.W.; Vlahos, K.

    1992-01-01

    In public enquiries concerning major facilities, such as the construction of a new electric power plant, it is observed that a useable decision model should be made commonly available alongside the open provision of data and assumptions. The protagonist, eg the electric utility, generally makes use of a complex, proprietary model for detailed evaluation of options. A simple emulator of this, based upon a regression analysis of numerous scenarios, and validated by further simulations is shown to be feasible and potentially attractive. It would be in the interests of the utility to make such a model-referenced decision support method generally available. The approach is considered in relation to the recent Hinkley Point C public enquiry for a new nuclear power plant in the UK. (Author)

  9. Decision-Oriented Health Technology Assessment: One Step Forward in Supporting the Decision-Making Process in Hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritrovato, Matteo; Faggiano, Francesco C; Tedesco, Giorgia; Derrico, Pietro

    2015-06-01

    This article outlines the Decision-Oriented Health Technology Assessment: a new implementation of the European network for Health Technology Assessment Core Model, integrating the multicriteria decision-making analysis by using the analytic hierarchy process to introduce a standardized methodological approach as a valued and shared tool to support health care decision making within a hospital. Following the Core Model as guidance (European network for Health Technology Assessment. HTA core model for medical and surgical interventions. Available from: http://www.eunethta.eu/outputs/hta-core-model-medical-and-surgical-interventions-10r. [Accessed May 27, 2014]), it is possible to apply the analytic hierarchy process to break down a problem into its constituent parts and identify priorities (i.e., assigning a weight to each part) in a hierarchical structure. Thus, it quantitatively compares the importance of multiple criteria in assessing health technologies and how the alternative technologies perform in satisfying these criteria. The verbal ratings are translated into a quantitative form by using the Saaty scale (Saaty TL. Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process. Int J Serv Sci 2008;1:83-98). An eigenvectors analysis is used for deriving the weights' systems (i.e., local and global weights' system) that reflect the importance assigned to the criteria and the priorities related to the performance of the alternative technologies. Compared with the Core Model, this methodological approach supplies a more timely as well as contextualized evidence for a specific technology, making it possible to obtain data that are more relevant and easier to interpret, and therefore more useful for decision makers to make investment choices with greater awareness. We reached the conclusion that although there may be scope for improvement, this implementation is a step forward toward the goal of building a "solid bridge" between the scientific evidence and the final decision

  10. Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svenja Caspers

    Full Text Available Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing.

  11. Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caspers, Svenja; Heim, Stefan; Lucas, Marc G; Stephan, Egon; Fischer, Lorenz; Amunts, Katrin; Zilles, Karl

    2012-01-01

    Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing.

  12. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes how risk-based decision making can be used for maintenance planning of components exposed to degradation such as fatigue in offshore wind turbines. In fatigue models, large epistemic uncertainties are usually present. These can be reduced if monitoring results are used to upd...

  13. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2009-01-01

    For offshore wind turbines costs to operation and maintenance are substantial. This paper describes a risk-based lifecycle approach for optimal planning of operation and maintenance. The approach is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. Deterioration mechanisms such as fatigue, corrosion...

  14. To analyse a trace or not? Evaluating the decision-making process in the criminal investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitzer, Sonja; Ribaux, Olivier; Albertini, Nicola; Delémont, Olivier

    2016-05-01

    In order to broaden our knowledge and understanding of the decision steps in the criminal investigation process, we started by evaluating the decision to analyse a trace and the factors involved in this decision step. This decision step is embedded in the complete criminal investigation process, involving multiple decision and triaging steps. Considering robbery cases occurring in a geographic region during a 2-year-period, we have studied the factors influencing the decision to submit biological traces, directly sampled on the scene of the robbery or on collected objects, for analysis. The factors were categorised into five knowledge dimensions: strategic, immediate, physical, criminal and utility and decision tree analysis was carried out. Factors in each category played a role in the decision to analyse a biological trace. Interestingly, factors involving information available prior to the analysis are of importance, such as the fact that a positive result (a profile suitable for comparison) is already available in the case, or that a suspect has been identified through traditional police work before analysis. One factor that was taken into account, but was not significant, is the matrix of the trace. Hence, the decision to analyse a trace is not influenced by this variable. The decision to analyse a trace first is very complex and many of the tested variables were taken into account. The decisions are often made on a case-by-case basis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Logics of pre-merger decision-making processes: the case of Karolinska University Hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Soki; Brommels, Mats

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine how and why a decision to merge two university hospitals in a public context might occur by using an in-depth case study of the pre-merger process of Karolinska University Hospital. Based on extensive document analysis and 35 key informant interviews the paper reconstructed the pre-merger process, searched for empirical patterns, and interpreted those by applying neo-institutional theory. Spanning nearly a decade, the pre-merger process goes from idea generation through transition to decision, and took place on two arenas, political, and scientific. Both research excellence and economic efficiency are stated merger motives. By applying a neo-institutional perspective, the paper finds that the two initial phases are driven by decision rationality, which is typical for political organizations and that the final phase demonstrated action rationality, which is typical for private firms. Critical factors behind this radical change of decision logic are means convergence, uniting key stakeholder groups, and an economic and political crisis, triggering critical incidents, which ultimately legitimized the formal decision. It is evident from the paper that merger decisions in the public sector might not necessarily result from stated and/or economic drivers only. This paper suggests that a change of decision logic from decision to action rationality might promote effective decision making on large and complex issues in a public context. This is the first systematic in-depth study of a university hospital merger employing a decision-making perspective.

  16. Breaking the sound barrier: exploring parents' decision-making process of cochlear implants for their children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Pamara F

    2017-08-01

    To understand the dynamic experiences of parents undergoing the decision-making process regarding cochlear implants for their child(ren). Thirty-three parents of d/Deaf children participated in semi-structured interviews. Interviews were digitally recorded, transcribed, and coded using iterative and thematic coding. The results from this study reveal four salient topics related to parents' decision-making process regarding cochlear implantation: 1) factors parents considered when making the decision to get the cochlear implant for their child (e.g., desire to acculturate child into one community), 2) the extent to which parents' communities influence their decision-making (e.g., norms), 3) information sources parents seek and value when decision-making (e.g., parents value other parent's experiences the most compared to medical or online sources), and 4) personal experiences with stigma affecting their decision to not get the cochlear implant for their child. This study provides insights into values and perspectives that can be utilized to improve informed decision-making, when making risky medical decisions with long-term implications. With thorough information provisions, delineation of addressing parents' concerns and encompassing all aspects of the decision (i.e., medical, social and cultural), health professional teams could reduce the uncertainty and anxiety for parents in this decision-making process for cochlear implantation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. [Clinical decision making and critical thinking in the nursing diagnostic process].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Staub, Maria

    2006-10-01

    The daily routine requires complex thinking processes of nurses, but clinical decision making and critical thinking are underestimated in nursing. A great demand for educational measures in clinical judgement related with the diagnostic process was found in nurses. The German literature hardly describes nursing diagnoses as clinical judgements about human reactions on health problems / life processes. Critical thinking is described as an intellectual, disciplined process of active conceptualisation, application and synthesis of information. It is gained through observation, experience, reflection and communication and leads thinking and action. Critical thinking influences the aspects of clinical decision making a) diagnostic judgement, b) therapeutic reasoning and c) ethical decision making. Human reactions are complex processes and in their course, human behavior is interpreted in the focus of health. Therefore, more attention should be given to the nursing diagnostic process. This article presents the theoretical framework of the paper "Clinical decision making: Fostering critical thinking in the nursing diagnostic process through case studies".

  18. Decision making, procedural compliance, and outcomes definition in U.S. forest service planning processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, Marc J.; Predmore, S. Andrew

    2011-01-01

    The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) dictates a process of analyzing and disclosing the likely impacts of proposed agency actions on the human environment. This study addresses two key questions related to NEPA implementation in the U.S. Forest Service: 1) how do Interdisciplinary (ID) team leaders and decision makers conceptualize the outcomes of NEPA processes? And 2), how does NEPA relate to agency decision making? We address these questions through two separate online surveys that posed questions about recently completed NEPA processes - the first with the ID team leaders tasked with carrying out the processes, and the second with the line officers responsible for making the processes' final decisions. Outcomes of NEPA processes include impacts on public relations, on employee morale and team functioning, on the achievement of agency goals, and on the achievement of NEPA's procedural requirements (disclosure) and substantive intent (minimizing negative environmental impacts). Although both tended to view public relations outcomes as important, decision makers' perceptions of favorable outcomes were more closely linked to the achievement of agency goals and process efficiency than was the case for ID team leaders. While ID team leaders' responses suggest that they see decision making closely integrated with the NEPA process, decision makers more commonly decoupled decision making from the NEPA process. These findings suggest a philosophical difference between ID team leaders and decision makers that may pose challenges for both the implementation and the evaluation of agency NEPA. We discuss the pros and cons of integrating NEPA with decision making or separating the two. We conclude that detaching NEPA from decision making poses greater risks than integrating them.

  19. Difficult decisions: A qualitative exploration of the statistical decision making process from the perspectives of psychology students and academics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter James Allen

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these ‘experts’ were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in

  20. Difficult Decisions: A Qualitative Exploration of the Statistical Decision Making Process from the Perspectives of Psychology Students and Academics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Peter J; Dorozenko, Kate P; Roberts, Lynne D

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these "experts" were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid

  1. Difficult Decisions: A Qualitative Exploration of the Statistical Decision Making Process from the Perspectives of Psychology Students and Academics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Peter J.; Dorozenko, Kate P.; Roberts, Lynne D.

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these “experts” were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid

  2. A decision support system for a multi stakeholder’s decision process in a Portuguese National Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Garcia-Gonzalo

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: In this paper, we present a decision support system (DSS to support decision making where different stakeholders have to generate landscape and forest level strategic plans. We further present an interactive approach that may take advantage of a posteriori preference modelling (i.e. Pareto frontier technique to facilitate the specification of the levels of achievement of various objectives.Area of study: The approach was applied to one planning cycle of a real world study case, the Leiria National Forest in Portugal. The Leiria National Forest, a managed area of approximately eleven thousand hectares in which 8,679 hectares are even aged stands of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait aimed at the production of wood.Material and methods: The interactive approach, at first, tries to generate Pareto efficient frontiers for different objectives. Then, multiple decision makers are involved in the process to seek an agreement towards the definition of a consensual strategic plan.Main results: The system developed in this article integrates an information management subsystem, a module to generate alternative management regimes, growth model routines and a decision module that generates and solves mathematical formulations. It also provides a module to display reports and view the resulting solutions (management plans. We also build the Pareto frontier for different criteria. The results show that the proposed DSS can help solve strategic planning problems subject to sustainable management constraints where people organize themselves and participate jointly to manage their natural resources.Research highlights: The interactive approach facilitates the involvement of multiple stakeholders in the decision making process.Keywords: decision support system; participatory planning; linear programming; mixed integer goal programming; sustainable forest management.

  3. HOSPITAL SITE SELECTION USING TWO-STAGE FUZZY MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Soltani

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Site selection for sitting of urban activities/facilities is one of the crucial policy-related decisions taken by urban planners and policy makers. The process of site selection is inherently complicated. A careless site imposes exorbitant costs on city budget and damages the environment inevitably. Nowadays, multi-attributes decision making approaches are suggested to use to improve precision of decision making and reduce surplus side effects. Two well-known techniques, analytical hierarchal process and analytical network process are among multi-criteria decision making systems which can easily be consistent with both quantitative and qualitative criteria. These are also developed to be fuzzy analytical hierarchal process and fuzzy analytical network process systems which are capable of accommodating inherent uncertainty and vagueness in multi-criteria decision-making. This paper reports the process and results of a hospital site selection within the Region 5 of Shiraz metropolitan area, Iran using integrated fuzzy analytical network process systems with Geographic Information System (GIS. The weights of the alternatives were calculated using fuzzy analytical network process. Then a sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the elasticity of a decision in regards to different criteria. This study contributes to planning practice by suggesting a more comprehensive decision making tool for site selection.

  4. HOSPITAL SITE SELECTION USING TWO-STAGE FUZZY MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Soltani

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Site selection for sitting of urban activities/facilities is one of the crucial policy-related decisions taken by urban planners and policy makers. The process of site selection is inherently complicated. A careless site imposes exorbitant costs on city budget and damages the environment inevitably. Nowadays, multi-attributes decision making approaches are suggested to use to improve precision of decision making and reduce surplus side effects. Two well-known techniques, analytical hierarchal process and analytical network process are among multi-criteria decision making systems which can easily be consistent with both quantitative and qualitative criteria. These are also developed to be fuzzy analytical hierarchal process and fuzzy analytical network process systems which are capable of accommodating inherent uncertainty and vagueness in multi-criteria decision-making. This paper reports the process and results of a hospital site selection within the Region 5 of Shiraz metropolitan area, Iran using integrated fuzzy analytical network process systems with Geographic Information System (GIS. The weights of the alternatives were calculated using fuzzy analytical network process. Then a sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the elasticity of a decision in regards to different criteria. This study contributes to planning practice by suggesting a more comprehensive decision making tool for site selection.

  5. The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W; Cohen, Andrew L; Huettel, Scott A

    2015-01-01

    Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making - despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics.

  6. The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W.; Cohen, Andrew L.; Huettel, Scott A.

    2015-01-01

    Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making – despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics. PMID:26388664

  7. Improving management decision processes through centralized communication linkages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simanton, D. F.; Garman, J. R.

    1985-01-01

    Information flow is a critical element to intelligent and timely decision-making. At NASA's Johnson Space Center the flow of information is being automated through the use of a centralized backbone network. The theoretical basis of this network, its implications to the horizontal and vertical flow of information, and the technical challenges involved in its implementation are the focus of this paper. The importance of the use of common tools among programs and some future concerns related to file transfer, graphics transfer, and merging of voice and data are also discussed.

  8. Cognitive Structures in Vocational Information Processing and Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevill, Dorothy D.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Tested the assumptions that the structural features of vocational schemas affect vocational information processing and career self-efficacy. Results indicated that effective vocational information processing was facilitated by well-integrated systems that processed information along fewer dimensions. The importance of schematic organization on the…

  9. Decision Making and Ratio Processing in Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertl, Marie-Theres; Benke, Thomas; Zamarian, Laura; Delazer, Margarete

    2015-01-01

    Making advantageous decisions is important in everyday life. This study aimed at assessing how patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) make decisions under risk. Additionally, it investigated the relationship between decision making, ratio processing, basic numerical abilities, and executive functions. Patients with MCI (n = 22) were compared with healthy controls (n = 29) on a complex task of decision making under risk (Game of Dice Task-Double, GDT-D), on two tasks evaluating basic decision making under risk, on a task of ratio processing, and on several neuropsychological background tests. Patients performed significantly lower than controls on the GDT-D and on ratio processing, whereas groups performed comparably on basic decision tasks. Specifically, in the GDT-D, patients obtained lower net scores and lower mean expected values, which indicate a less advantageous performance relative to that of controls. Performance on the GDT-D correlated significantly with performance in basic decision tasks, ratio processing, and executive-function measures when the analysis was performed on the whole sample. Patients with MCI make sub-optimal decisions in complex risk situations, whereas they perform at the same level as healthy adults in simple decision situations. Ratio processing and executive functions have an impact on the decision-making performance of both patients and healthy older adults. In order to facilitate advantageous decisions in complex everyday situations, information should be presented in an easily comprehensible form and cognitive training programs for patients with MCI should focus--among other abilities--on executive functions and ratio processing.

  10. "The Gaze Heuristic:" Biography of an Adaptively Rational Decision Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Robert P

    2017-04-01

    This article is a case study that describes the natural and human history of the gaze heuristic. The gaze heuristic is an interception heuristic that utilizes a single input (deviation from a constant angle of approach) repeatedly as a task is performed. Its architecture, advantages, and limitations are described in detail. A history of the gaze heuristic is then presented. In natural history, the gaze heuristic is the only known technique used by predators to intercept prey. In human history the gaze heuristic was discovered accidentally by Royal Air Force (RAF) fighter command just prior to World War II. As it was never discovered by the Luftwaffe, the technique conferred a decisive advantage upon the RAF throughout the war. After the end of the war in America, German technology was combined with the British heuristic to create the Sidewinder AIM9 missile, the most successful autonomous weapon ever built. There are no plans to withdraw it or replace its guiding gaze heuristic. The case study demonstrates that the gaze heuristic is a specific heuristic type that takes a single best input at the best time (take the best 2 ). Its use is an adaptively rational response to specific, rapidly evolving decision environments that has allowed those animals/humans/machines who use it to survive, prosper, and multiply relative to those who do not. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  11. Consumer's Buying Decision-Making Process in E-Commerce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puspitasari, Nia Budi; Susatyo, Nugroho W. P.; Amyhorsea, Deya Nilan; Susanty, Aries

    2018-02-01

    The e-commerce growth and development in Indonesia is very rapid as well as the internet grows, but it is not well-balanced with the number of online buying transaction which is still relatively low. Even the today's biggest B2C e-commerce people in Indonesia, Lazada, has continually decreased online purchasing. This research is aimed to describe factors affecting online buying decision- making in the e-commerce Lazada. The type of this research is confirmatory research. The variable used is following conceptual model i.e. Electronic Word of Mouth (EWOM), social identity, risk perception, trust, and purchase intention. The data were obtained through the questionnaire with Likert scale 1-5. There are 104 people researching sample who meets the criteria as Lazada consumer that, at least do a transaction in recent six months. Data analyzing were done using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) method by Analysis of Moment Structures (AMOS) software. The results showed that the purchase intention has positively related to the purchase decision. Variable EWOM toward trust has positive relation, variable social identity and risk perception have no any significant relation to trust. Variable risk perception toward purchase intention has no significant relation, while the variable trust has significant positive relation to purchase intention.

  12. The role of logistics information system in the business-decision process

    OpenAIRE

    Galicic, Vlado; Pilepic, Ljubica

    2007-01-01

    The development of logistics information systems that support decision-making, together with the use of business intelligence, provides assistance and support to logistics managers in the decision process, thereby impacting on the quality of business and productivity. Being better informed and having greater intelligence for decision-making can help to create new value and gain competitive advantage. Logistics business systems in a tourism destination appreciate the importance of information ...

  13. Optimization-based decision support systems for planning problems in processing industries

    OpenAIRE

    Claassen, G.D.H.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Optimization-based decision support systems for planning problems in processing industries Nowadays, efficient planning of material flows within and between supply chains is of vital importance and has become one of the most challenging problems for decision support in practice. The tremendous progress in hard- and software of the past decades was an important gateway for developing computerized systems that are able to support decision making on different levels within enterprises. T...

  14. Theoretical aspects of cellular decision-making and information-processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Tetsuya J; Kamimura, Atsushi

    2012-01-01

    Microscopic biological processes have extraordinary complexity and variety at the sub-cellular, intra-cellular, and multi-cellular levels. In dealing with such complex phenomena, conceptual and theoretical frameworks are crucial, which enable us to understand seemingly different intra- and inter-cellular phenomena from unified viewpoints. Decision-making is one such concept that has attracted much attention recently. Since a number of cellular behavior can be regarded as processes to make specific actions in response to external stimuli, decision-making can cover and has been used to explain a broad range of different cellular phenomena [Balázsi et al. (Cell 144(6):910, 2011), Zeng et al. (Cell 141(4):682, 2010)]. Decision-making is also closely related to cellular information-processing because appropriate decisions cannot be made without exploiting the information that the external stimuli contain. Efficiency of information transduction and processing by intra-cellular networks determines the amount of information obtained, which in turn limits the efficiency of subsequent decision-making. Furthermore, information-processing itself can serve as another concept that is crucial for understanding of other biological processes than decision-making. In this work, we review recent theoretical developments on cellular decision-making and information-processing by focusing on the relation between these two concepts.

  15. Measuring process performance within healthcare logistics - a decision tool for selecting measuring technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feibert, Diana Cordes; Jacobsen, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Performance measurement can support the organization in improving the efficiency and effectiveness of logistical healthcare processes. Selecting the most suitable technologies is important to ensure data validity. A case study of the hospital cleaning process at a public Danish hospital...... was conducted. Monitoring tasks and ascertaining quality of work is difficult in such a process. Based on principal-agent theory, a set of decision indicator has been developed, and a decision framework for assessing technologies to enable performance measurement has been proposed....

  16. Some applications of fuzzy sets and the analytical hierarchy process to decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Castro, Alberto Rosas

    1984-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution unlimited This thesis examines the use of fuzzy set theory and the analytic hierarchy process in decision making. It begins by reviewing the insight of psychologists, social scientists and computer scientists to the decision making process. The Operations Research- Systems Analysis approach is discussed followed by a presentation of the basis of fuzzy set theory and the analytic hierarchy process. Two applications of these meth...

  17. Non-technical factors impacting on the decision making processes in environmental remediation. Influences on the decision making process such as cost, planned land use and public perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-04-01

    The IAEA attaches great importance to the dissemination of information that can assist Member States with the development, implementation, maintenance and continuous improvement of systems, programmes and activities that support the nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear applications, including the legacy of past practices and accidents. In response to this, the IAEA has initiated a comprehensive programme of work covering all aspects of environmental remediation: factors important for formulating a strategy for environmental remediation; site characterisation techniques and strategies; assessment of remediation technologies; assessment of technical options for cleanup of contaminated media; post-restoration compliance monitoring; assessment of the costs of remediation measures; remediation of low-level disperse radioactive contaminations in the environment. While this project mainly focus on technological aspects, non-technical factors will be influencing the decision making process in remediation decisively. Often their influence is only tacitly accepted and not explicitly acknowledged by the responsible decision makers. This makes it difficult to trace the decision making process in the event that it has to be revisited. The present publication attempts to make these factors explicit and to present methods to include them consciously into the decision making process

  18. Considerations about decision processes in the nuclear field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borges, J.C.

    1986-01-01

    In all the countries of the world, official energy policies and programs are criticized by experts from the academic community and by the population at large. It is quite normal that people censure their government, but under the cloak of scientific arguments, one can usually find political objectives. The parameters which are an influence in this power game: up to what point can or should technocrats decide in the name of the people when and how can or should the people demonstrate their preference are presented. As this is a vast and polemic theme, and in order that some concrete conclusion could be drawn, we tried to concentrate our analysis on a specific case: the Brazilian decision to use nuclear energy. (Author) [pt

  19. Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayal, Shahar; Rusou, Zohar; Zakay, Dan; Hochman, Guy

    2015-01-01

    A framework is presented to better characterize the role of individual differences in information processing style and their interplay with contextual factors in determining decision making quality. In Experiment 1, we show that individual differences in information processing style are flexible and can be modified by situational factors. Specifically, a situational manipulation that induced an analytical mode of thought improved decision quality. In Experiment 2, we show that this improvement in decision quality is highly contingent on the compatibility between the dominant thinking mode and the nature of the task. That is, encouraging an intuitive mode of thought led to better performance on an intuitive task but hampered performance on an analytical task. The reverse pattern was obtained when an analytical mode of thought was encouraged. We discuss the implications of these results for the assessment of decision making competence, and suggest practical directions to help individuals better adjust their information processing style to the situation at hand and make optimal decisions.

  20. Waste management project’s alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives. ► We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. ► In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project’s alternatives. ► Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is examined. ► Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives’ B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project’s alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

  1. The participation of the German Länder in the EU decision-making process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Panara

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This article sketches out the main features of the German system of regional participation in the EU decision-making process with the aim of identifying the key strengths and weaknesses of that system. The author will be examining whether the model currently in place allows for a sufficiently rapid and effective response to the EU decision-making process, and whether there is a sufficiently balanced representation of regional and federal interests at the EU level. The article will also contain a proposal as to how the German model of regional participation in the EU decision-making process could be further improved.

  2. Team confidence, motivated information processing, and dynamic group decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Dreu, C.K.W.; Beersma, B.

    2010-01-01

    According to the Motivated Information Processing in Groups (MIP-G) model, groups should perform ambiguous (non-ambiguous) tasks better when they have high (low) epistemic motivation and concomitant tendencies to engage in systematic (heuristic) information processing and exchange. The authors

  3. A Practical Decision-Analysis Process for Forest Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Michael Rauscher; F. Thomas Lloyd; David L. Loftis; Mark J. Twery

    2000-01-01

    Many authors have pointed out the need to firm up the 'fuzzy' ecosystem management paradigm and develop operationally practical processes to allow forest managers to accommodate more effectively the continuing rapid change in societal perspectives and goals. There are three spatial scales where clear, precise, practical ecosystem management processes are...

  4. Evidence combination for incremental decision-making processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berrada, Ghita; van Keulen, Maurice; de Keijzer, Ander

    The establishment of a medical diagnosis is an incremental process highly fraught with uncertainty. At each step of this painstaking process, it may be beneficial to be able to quantify the uncertainty linked to the diagnosis and steadily update the uncertainty estimation using available sources of

  5. When to trust our learners? Clinical teachers' perceptions of decision variables in the entrustment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duijn, Chantal C M A; Welink, Lisanne S; Bok, Harold G J; Ten Cate, Olle T J

    2018-06-01

    Clinical training programs increasingly use entrustable professional activities (EPAs) as focus of assessment. However, questions remain about which information should ground decisions to trust learners. This qualitative study aimed to identify decision variables in the workplace that clinical teachers find relevant in the elaboration of the entrustment decision processes. The findings can substantiate entrustment decision-making in the clinical workplace. Focus groups were conducted with medical and veterinary clinical teachers, using the structured consensus method of the Nominal Group Technique to generate decision variables. A ranking was made based on a relevance score assigned by the clinical teachers to the different decision variables. Field notes, audio recordings and flip chart lists were analyzed and subsequently translated and, as a form of axial coding, merged into one list, combining the decision variables that were similar in their meaning. A list of 11 and 17 decision variables were acknowledged as relevant by the medical and veterinary teacher groups, respectively. The focus groups yielded 21 unique decision variables that were considered relevant to inform readiness to perform a clinical task on a designated level of supervision. The decision variables consisted of skills, generic qualities, characteristics, previous performance or other information. We were able to group the decision variables into five categories: ability, humility, integrity, reliability and adequate exposure. To entrust a learner to perform a task at a specific level of supervision, a supervisor needs information to support such a judgement. This trust cannot be credited on a single case at a single moment of assessment, but requires different variables and multiple sources of information. This study provides an overview of decision variables giving evidence to justify the multifactorial process of making an entrustment decision.

  6. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action: developing a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA ) process for prioritization of NAMAs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Sudhir; Desgain, Denis DR; Sandbukt, Sunniva

    be relevant as next year countries will have to translate their mitigation contribution outlined in their INDCs submitted to UNFCCC into implementation plans. Multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a tool commonly used for decision making process, including to rank options or to short-list a limited...

  7. Free-Choice Learning Suited to Women's Participation Needs in Environmental Decision-Making Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skanavis, Constantina; Sakellari, Maria

    2012-01-01

    United Nations mandates recognize the need to promote the full participation of women in environmental decision-making processes on the basis of gender equality. But, there remains a profound lack of effective women's participation in some sectors of environmental decision-making. Free-choice environmental learning offers an effective educational…

  8. Examination of Children Decision Making Using Clues during the Logical Reasoning Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çelik, Meryem

    2017-01-01

    Logical reasoning is the process of thinking about a problem and finding the most effective solution. Children's decision-making skills are part of their cognitive development and are also indicative. The purpose of this study was to examine children's decision-making skills using clues in logical reasoning based on various variables. The study…

  9. Disciplined Decision Making in an Interdisciplinary Environment: Some Implications for Clinical Applications of Statistical Process Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantula, Donald A.

    1995-01-01

    Clinical applications of statistical process control (SPC) in human service organizations are considered. SPC is seen as providing a standard set of criteria that serves as a common interface for data-based decision making, which may bring decision making under the control of established contingencies rather than the immediate contingencies of…

  10. Communication barriers in the decision-making process : System Language and System Thinking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schinagl, S.; Paans, R.

    2017-01-01

    A major problem in the decision-making process is poor communication regarding threats and risks between information security experts and decision makers. By their nature, experts have a strong interest in operational details and limited insight into the purpose of the organization as they may not

  11. Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Decision making Process Based on Power Distance and Personality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozmand, O.; Ghasem-Aghaee, N.; Hofstede, G.J.; Nematbakhsh, M.A.; Baraani, A.; Verwaart, T.

    2011-01-01

    Simulating consumer decision making processes involves different disciplines such as: sociology, social psychology, marketing, and computer science. In this paper, we propose an agent-based conceptual and computational model of consumer decision-making based on culture, personality and human needs.

  12. Risk aversion and risk seeking in multicriteria forest management: a Markov decision process approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno; Mo Zhou; Craig Johnston

    2017-01-01

    Markov decision process models were extended to reflect some consequences of the risk attitude of forestry decision makers. One approach consisted of maximizing the expected value of a criterion subject to an upper bound on the variance or, symmetrically, minimizing the variance subject to a lower bound on the expected value.  The other method used the certainty...

  13. Is There Neural Evidence for an Evidence Accumulation Process in Memory Decisions?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vugt, Marieke K; Beulen, Marijke A; Taatgen, Niels A

    2016-01-01

    Models of evidence accumulation have been very successful at describing human decision making behavior. Recent years have also seen the first reports of neural correlates of this accumulation process. However, these studies have mostly focused on perceptual decision making tasks, ignoring the role

  14. Optimization-based decision support systems for planning problems in processing industries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claassen, G.D.H.

    2014-01-01

    Summary

    Optimization-based decision support systems for planning problems in processing industries

    Nowadays, efficient planning of material flows within and between supply chains is of vital importance and has become one of the most challenging problems for decision support in

  15. Due Process and Higher Education: A Systemic Approach to Fair Decision Making. ERIC Digest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Ed

    University officials and faculty are frequently required to make decisions based on interpretations of disputed facts. By applying the concept of due process within the context of higher education, they can meet legal challenges of contract and constitutional law and the pedagogical demand for justice. To guide their efforts, decision makers can…

  16. Why unbiased computational processes can lead to discriminative decision procedures (Chapter 3)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calders, T.G.K.; Zliobaite, I.; Custers, B.H.M.; Calders, T.G.K.; Schermer, B.W.; Zarsky, T.Z.

    2013-01-01

    Nowadays, more and more decision procedures are supported or even guided by automated processes. An important technique in this automation is data mining. In this chapter we study how such automatically generated decision support models may exhibit discriminatory behavior towards certain groups

  17. The Use of Art in the Medical Decision-Making Process of Oncology Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czamanski-Cohen, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    The introduction of written informed consent in the 1970s created expectations of shared decision making between doctors and patients that has led to decisional conflict for some patients. This study utilized a collaborative, intrinsic case study approach to the decision-making process of oncology patients who participated in an open art therapy…

  18. Conceptual Frameworks for the Workplace Change Adoption Process: Elements Integration from Decision Making and Learning Cycle Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radin Umar, Radin Zaid; Sommerich, Carolyn M; Lavender, Steve A; Sanders, Elizabeth; Evans, Kevin D

    2018-05-14

    Sound workplace ergonomics and safety-related interventions may be resisted by employees, and this may be detrimental to multiple stakeholders. Understanding fundamental aspects of decision making, behavioral change, and learning cycles may provide insights into pathways influencing employees' acceptance of interventions. This manuscript reviews published literature on thinking processes and other topics relevant to decision making and incorporates the findings into two new conceptual frameworks of the workplace change adoption process. Such frameworks are useful for thinking about adoption in different ways and testing changes to traditional intervention implementation processes. Moving forward, it is recommended that future research focuses on systematic exploration of implementation process activities that integrate principles from the research literature on sensemaking, decision making, and learning processes. Such exploration may provide the groundwork for development of specific implementation strategies that are theoretically grounded and provide a revised understanding of how successful intervention adoption processes work.

  19. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Stian [Section for Control Systems, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Stian.Ruud@dnv.com; Mikkelsen, Age [Section for Lifting Appliances, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Age.Mikkelsen@dnv.com

    2008-09-15

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented.

  20. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruud, Stian; Mikkelsen, Age

    2008-01-01

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented

  1. Corticostriatal interactions during learning, memory processing, and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennartz, C.M.A.; Berke, J.D.; Graybiel, A.M.; Ito, R.; Lansink, C.S.; van der Meer, M.; Redish, A.D.; Smith, K.S.; Voorn, P.

    2009-01-01

    This mini-symposium aims to integrate recent insights from anatomy, behavior, and neurophysiology, highlighting the anatomical organization, behavioral significance, and information-processing mechanisms of corticostriatal interactions. In this summary of topics, which is not meant to provide a

  2. From Performance to Decision Processes in 33 Years: A History of Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes under James C. Naylor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber

    1998-12-01

    For the past 33 years, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes has thrived under a single editor. That editor, James C. Naylor, is retiring from his long stewardship. This article chronicles the course of the journal under Jim's direction and marks some of the accomplishments and changes over the past three decades that go to his credit. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.

  3. A case study of optimization in the decision process: Siting groundwater monitoring wells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardwell, H.; Huff, D.; Douthitt, J.; Sale, M.

    1993-12-01

    Optimization is one of the tools available to assist decision makers in balancing multiple objectives and concerns. In a case study of the siting decision for groundwater monitoring wells, we look at the influence of the optimization models on the decisions made by the responsible groundwater specialist. This paper presents a multi-objective integer programming model for determining the location of monitoring wells associated with a groundwater pump-and-treat remediation. After presenting the initial optimization results, we analyze the actual decision and revise the model to incorporate elements of the problem that were later identified as important in the decision-making process. The results of a revised model are compared to the actual siting plans, the recommendations from the initial optimization runs, and the initial monitoring network proposed by the decision maker

  4. The Computational Complexity of Valuation and Motivational Forces in Decision-Making Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redish, A David; Schultheiss, Nathan W; Carter, Evan C

    2016-01-01

    The concept of value is fundamental to most theories of motivation and decision making. However, value has to be measured experimentally. Different methods of measuring value produce incompatible valuation hierarchies. Taking the agent's perspective (rather than the experimenter's), we interpret the different valuation measurement methods as accessing different decision-making systems and show how these different systems depend on different information processing algorithms. This identifies the translation from these multiple decision-making systems into a single action taken by a given agent as one of the most important open questions in decision making today. We conclude by looking at how these different valuation measures accessing different decision-making systems can be used to understand and treat decision dysfunction such as in addiction.

  5. Assessing the structure of non-routine decision processes in Airline Operations Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richters, Floor; Schraagen, Jan Maarten; Heerkens, Hans

    2016-03-01

    Unfamiliar severe disruptions challenge Airline Operations Control professionals most, as their expertise is stretched to its limits. This study has elicited the structure of Airline Operations Control professionals' decision process during unfamiliar disruptions by mapping three macrocognitive activities on the decision ladder: sensemaking, option evaluation and action planning. The relationship between this structure and decision quality was measured. A simulated task was staged, based on which think-aloud protocols were obtained. Results show that the general decision process structure resembles the structure of experts working under routine conditions, in terms of the general structure of the macrocognitive activities, and the rule-based approach used to identify options and actions. Surprisingly, high quality of decision outcomes was found to relate to the use of rule-based strategies. This implies that successful professionals are capable of dealing with unfamiliar problems by reframing them into familiar ones, rather than to engage in knowledge-based processing. Practitioner Summary: We examined the macrocognitive structure of Airline Operations Control professionals' decision process during a simulated unfamiliar disruption in relation to decision quality. Results suggest that successful professionals are capable of dealing with unfamiliar problems by reframing them into familiar ones, rather than to engage in knowledge-based processing.

  6. A Framework for Investigating Influence of Organizational Decision Makers on Data Mining Process Achievement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanieh Hajisafari

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, few studies deal with evaluation of data mining plans in context of solvng organizational problems. A successful data miner is searching to solve a fully defined business problem. To make the data mining (DM results actionable, the data miner must explain them to the business insider. The interaction process between the business insiders and data miners is actually a knowledge-sharing process. In this study through representing a framwork, influence of organizational decision makers on data mining process and results investigated. By investigating research literature, the critical success factors of data mining plans was identified and the role of organizational decision makers in each step of data mining was investigated.‌ Then, the conceptual framework of influence of organizational decision makers on data mining process achievement was designed. By getting expert opinions, the proposed framework was analyzed and evantually designed the final framework of influence of organizational decision makers on data mining process achievement. Analysis of experts opinions showed that by knowledge sharing of data ming results with decision makers, "learning", "action or internalization" and "enforcing/unlearning" will become as critical success factors. Also, results of examining importance of decision makers' feedback on data mining steps showed that getting feedback from decision makers could have most influence on "knowledge extraction and representing model" step and least on "data cleaning and preprocessing" step.

  7. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian N. Marewski

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a methodological primer on how detailed cognitive architectures such as ACT-R allow remedying these problems. To make our point, we address a controversy, namely, whether noncompensatory or compensatory processes better describe how people make decisions from the accessibility of memories. We specify 39 models of accessibility-based decision processes in ACT-R, including the noncompensatory recognition heuristic and various other popular noncompensatory and compensatory decision models. Additionally, to illustrate how such models can be tested, we conduct a model comparison, fitting the models to one experiment and letting them generalize to another. Behavioral data are best accounted for by race models. These race models embody the noncompensatory recognition heuristic and compensatory models as a race between competing processes, dissolving the dichotomy between existing decision models.

  8. Risk Based Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents how Bayesian networks can be used to make optimal decisions for repairs of offshore wind turbines. The Bayesian network is an efficient tool for updating a deterioration model whenever new information becomes available from inspections/monitoring. The optimal decision is found...... such that the preventive maintenance effort is balanced against the costs to corrective maintenance including indirect costs to reduced production. The basis for the optimization is the risk based Bayesian decision theory. The method is demonstrated through an application example....

  9. Social Networks as Information Source for the Purchase Decision Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Leoni Nascimento

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The social networks have caused changes in the consumption habits and in the ways of relationship among companies and consumers, emerging a more demanding and informed consumer. In this paper it is aimed to assess the social networks as a source of information for the purchase of goods or services. In the study it was applied a research of exploratory nature through the survey method, conducted through personal interviews using a questionnaire with closed-ended questions. The sample of non-probabilistic type was comprised of 200 individuals from a higher education institution of São Paulo State hinterland. The survey data were analyzed descriptively. Overall, the results showed the use of social networks as a source of information search, in which the main motive is the practicality. The results corroborate the studies of Kotler and Keller (2006 when they state that the consumer seeks information on social networks to help him in the purchase, as Edelman and Hirshberg (2006 when approaching the user confidence in their friends’ opinion. For future works it is recommended to check what strategies and in what ways the companies could work in order to provide more detailed data to Internet users, aiming to support them in the decision

  10. Decision Making Model for Business Process Outsourcing of Enterprise Content Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuojun Yi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Business process outsourcing (BPO in enterprise content management (ECM is a growing though immature market. BPO in ECM focuses on pursuing market transactions in the process of managing all types of content being used in organizations. However, inadequate sourcing decisions lead to organizational sensitive content exposure, high transaction cost, poor outsourcer performance, low flexibility. ECM BPO in general is rarely discussed in the literature and no discussion was found on decision making strategies in ECM BPO. In this paper, we present a decision making model for ECM BPO that will fill the literature gap and guide industry practitioners with ECM sourcing decision making strategies. Our proposed decision making model includes two parts. Part one is an ECM functional framework that shows what functionality component or functionality combinations can be outsourced. Part two is a decision making model that provides guidance for decision making in ECM BPO. We apply the model in two case studies, and the results indicate that the model can guide the sourcing decision making process for organizations, and determine the factors when considering sourcing alternatives in ECM.

  11. Societal rationality; towards an understanding of decision making processes in society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wahlstroem, Bjoern

    2001-01-01

    In a search for new ways to structure decision making on complex and controversial issues it is necessary to build an understanding of why traditional decision making processes break down. One reason is connected to the issues themselves. They represent steps into the unknown and decisions should therefore be made with prudence. A second reason is connected to a track record according to which new technologies are seen as generating more problems than solutions. A third and more fundamental reason is connected to the decision making processes themselves and a need to find better ways to approach difficult questions in the society. One way to approach societal decision making processes is to investigate their hidden rationality in an attempt to understand causes of observed difficulties. The paper is based mainly on observations from the nuclear industry, but it builds also on controversies experienced in attempts to agree on global efforts towards sustainable approaches to development. It builds on an earlier paper, which discussed the basis of rationality both on an individual and a societal level. Research in societal decision making has to rely on a true multi-disciplinary approach. It is nor enough to understand the technical and scientific models by which outcomes are predicted, but it is also necessary to understand how people make sense of their environment and how they co-operate. Rationality is in this connection one of the key concepts, with an understanding that people always are rational in their own frame of action. The challenge in this connection is to understand how this subjective rationality is formed. Societal rationality has to do with the allocation of resources. There are decisions in which several conflicting views have to be considered. Spending time and resources ex ante may support a consensus ex post, but unfortunately there is no panacea for approaching difficult decisions. Decisions with an uncertain future have to be more robust than

  12. Societal rationality; towards an understanding of decision making processes in society

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahlstroem, Bjoern [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    2001-07-01

    In a search for new ways to structure decision making on complex and controversial issues it is necessary to build an understanding of why traditional decision making processes break down. One reason is connected to the issues themselves. They represent steps into the unknown and decisions should therefore be made with prudence. A second reason is connected to a track record according to which new technologies are seen as generating more problems than solutions. A third and more fundamental reason is connected to the decision making processes themselves and a need to find better ways to approach difficult questions in the society. One way to approach societal decision making processes is to investigate their hidden rationality in an attempt to understand causes of observed difficulties. The paper is based mainly on observations from the nuclear industry, but it builds also on controversies experienced in attempts to agree on global efforts towards sustainable approaches to development. It builds on an earlier paper, which discussed the basis of rationality both on an individual and a societal level. Research in societal decision making has to rely on a true multi-disciplinary approach. It is nor enough to understand the technical and scientific models by which outcomes are predicted, but it is also necessary to understand how people make sense of their environment and how they co-operate. Rationality is in this connection one of the key concepts, with an understanding that people always are rational in their own frame of action. The challenge in this connection is to understand how this subjective rationality is formed. Societal rationality has to do with the allocation of resources. There are decisions in which several conflicting views have to be considered. Spending time and resources ex ante may support a consensus ex post, but unfortunately there is no panacea for approaching difficult decisions. Decisions with an uncertain future have to be more robust than

  13. GREENER CHEMICAL PROCESS DESIGN ALTERNATIVES ARE REVEALED USING THE WASTE REDUCTION DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (WAR DSS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Waste Reduction Decision Support System (WAR DSS) is a Java-based software product providing comprehensive modeling of potential adverse environmental impacts (PEI) predicted to result from newly designed or redesigned chemical manufacturing processes. The purpose of this so...

  14. Assessing the Structure of Non-Routine Decision Processes in Airline Operations Control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richters, Floor; Schraagen, Johannes Martinus Cornelis; Heerkens, Johannes M.G.

    2015-01-01

    Unfamiliar severe disruptions challenge airline operations control professionals most, as their expertise is stretched to its limits. This study has elicited the structure of airline operations control professionals’ decision process during unfamiliar disruptions by mapping three macrocognitive

  15. Assessing the structure of non-routine decision processes in Airline Operations Control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richters, F.; Schraagen, J.M.C.; Heerkens, H.

    2015-01-01

    Unfamiliar severe disruptions challenge Airline Operations Control professionals most, as their expertise is stretched to its limits. This study has elicited the structure of Airline Operations Control professionals’ decision process during unfamiliar disruptions by mapping three macrocognitive

  16. Properly Applying the Military Decision Making Process in Low Intensity Conflict and Small Scale Contingencies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wilson, Todd

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to demonstrate that current doctrine, applied effectively through the Military Decision Making Process, is more than adequate to the task of providing military planners...

  17. The Needs of Hybrid Systems Configuration for Real - Time Decision - Making Process in Surgery

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tritto, G

    2001-01-01

    ...: sensors, actuators, mechatronic systems and tools in Minimally Invasive Surgery (MIS) and Microsurgery require nonlinear interpretation and control systems to interface with the computer-assisted decision making process of the surgeon at work...

  18. 20 CFR 655.1245 - Who can appeal the ALJ's decision and what is the process?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF LABOR TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT OF FOREIGN WORKERS IN THE UNITED STATES What are the Department's... what is the process? (a) The Administrator or any interested party desiring review of the decision and...

  19. Age Differences in Information Use While Making Decisions: Resource Limitations or Processing Differences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs-Lawson, Joy M; Schumacher, Mitzi M; Wackerbarth, Sarah B

    2016-09-20

    Recent research on the decision-making abilities of older adults has shown that they use less information than young adults. One explanation ascribes this age difference to reductions in cognitive abilities with age. The article includes three experimental studies that focused on determining the conditions in which older and young adults would display dissimilar information processing characteristics. Findings from Studies 1 and 2 demonstrated that older adults are not necessarily at greater disadvantage than young adults in decision contexts that demand more information processing resources. Findings from Study 3 indicated that older adults when faced with decisions that require greater processing are likely to use a strategy that reduces the amount of information needed, whereas younger adults rely on strategies that utilize more resources. Combined the findings indicate that older adults change their decision-making strategies based on the context and information provided. Furthermore, support is provided for processing difference. © The Author(s) 2016.

  20. The Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP): A Prototype Training Product

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wampler, Richard

    1998-01-01

    ...): A Prototype Training Product. The MDMP product is a computer-based, stand alone training support package to assist individuals and staffs of light infantry brigades in learning to participate in the military decision-making process...

  1. Decision Support for Software Process Management Teams: An Intelligent Software Agent Approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Church, Lori

    2000-01-01

    ... to market, eliminate redundancy, and ease job stress. This thesis proposes a conceptual model for software process management decision support in the form of an intelligent software agent network...

  2. [Woman's participation in the decision process of the pregnancy and puerperal cycle: nursing care integrative review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busanello, Josefine; Lunardi Filho, Wilson Danilo; Kerber, Nalú Pereira da Costa; Lunardi, Valéria Lerch; dos Santos, Silvana Sidnei

    2011-12-01

    This is an integrative review that aims to identify the contribution of nursing care for woman's participation in the decision process of the pregnancy and puerperal cycle, as described in Brazilian scientific publications. The scientific productions were retrieved in May, 2010, from the Virtual Library of Health (Biblioteca Virtual em Saúde) database. From the eight articles reviewed, two themes stood out: Contributions of nursing care to the woman's participation in the decision process of the pregnancy and puerperal cycle; and Limitations of nursing care to the woman's participation in the decision process of the pregnancy and puerperal cycle. The following review supports the production of knowledge in nursing, by identifying a gap in what nurses know and do about this issue, as shown by the lack of nursing researches that concern, specifically, the participation of the woman in the decision process during the pregnancy and puerperal cycle and the possible contributions of nursing care to ensure women of this right.

  3. Career Decision-Making Processes of Young Adults With First-Episode Psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boychuk, Christa; Lysaght, Rosemary; Stuart, Heather

    2018-05-01

    The first episode of psychosis often emerges during young adulthood, when individuals are pursuing important educational and career goals that can become derailed because of the development of major impairments. Past research has neglected the developmental nature of employment and education decisions that young adults with first-episode psychosis make within the context of their lives. The purpose of this grounded theory study was to advance a model of the career decision-making processes of young adults with first-episode psychosis, and the influences that affect their career decision-making. The career decision-making of young adults with first-episode psychosis emerged as a multistaged, iterative process that unfolded over three phases of illness, and was affected by several internal and environmental influences. These findings suggest the phase of illness and career decision-making stage should be considered in future vocational programming for young adults with first-episode psychosis.

  4. Fuzzy methods in decision making process - A particular approach in manufacturing systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coroiu, A. M.

    2015-11-01

    We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk

  5. Utilisation of Cost Type Information in Decision Making Process Approaches on Public Establishments

    OpenAIRE

    Mihai (Andreescu) Gabriela; Ionescu (Eftene) Nicoleta; Uta Tatiana

    2011-01-01

    Managerial decisions and decision making process stand for the key issues of each entity around which all activities of financial information collection, processing, review, construing, summarizing, and not only, gravitate within every organisation. Moreover, costs (calculation, review and optimization of such) are important as the whole activity of an organisation reflects itself in costs, respectively based on information concerning costs based on which managers may decide on purchasing, pr...

  6. PROCESSING THE INFORMATION CONTENT ON THE BASIS OF FUZZY NEURAL MODEL OF DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina V. Komleva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the issues of mathematical modeling of the decision-making process of information content processing based on the fuzzy neural network TSK. Integral rating assessment of the content, which is necessary for taking a decision about its further usage, is made depended on varying characteristics. Mechanism for building individual trajectory and forming individual competence is provided to make the intellectual content search.

  7. A Method for Speeding Up Value Iteration in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Nevin Lianwen; Lee, Stephen S.; Zhang, Weihong

    2013-01-01

    We present a technique for speeding up the convergence of value iteration for partially observable Markov decisions processes (POMDPs). The underlying idea is similar to that behind modified policy iteration for fully observable Markov decision processes (MDPs). The technique can be easily incorporated into any existing POMDP value iteration algorithms. Experiments have been conducted on several test problems with one POMDP value iteration algorithm called incremental pruning. We find that th...

  8. WORK ALLOCATION IN COMPLEX PRODUCTION PROCESSES: A METHODOLOGY FOR DECISION SUPPORT

    OpenAIRE

    de Mello, Adriana Marotti; School of Economics, Business and Accounting at the University of São Paulo; Marx, Roberto; Polytechnic School, University of São Paulo; Zilbovicius, Mauro; Polytechnic School – University of São Paulo

    2013-01-01

    This article presents the development of a Methodology of Decision Support for Work Allocation in complex production processes. It is known that this decision is frequently taken empirically and that the methodologies available to support it are few and restricted in terms of its conceptual basis. The study of Times and Motion is one of these methodologies, but its applicability is restricted in cases of more complex production processes. The method presented here was developed as a result of...

  9. Increasing a large petrochemical company efficiency by improvement of decision making process

    OpenAIRE

    Kirin Snežana D.; Nešić Lela G.

    2010-01-01

    The paper shows the results of a research conducted in a large petrochemical company, in a state under transition, with the aim to "shed light" on the decision making process from the aspect of personal characteristics of the employees, in order to use the results to improve decision making process and increase company efficiency. The research was conducted by a survey, i.e. by filling out a questionnaire specially made for this purpose, in real conditions, during working hours. The sample of...

  10. Feasibility of a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the impact of decision boxes on shared decision-making processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giguere, Anik Mc; Labrecque, Michel; Légaré, France; Grad, Roland; Cauchon, Michel; Greenway, Matthew; Haynes, R Brian; Pluye, Pierre; Syed, Iqra; Banerjee, Debi; Carmichael, Pierre-Hugues; Martin, Mélanie

    2015-02-25

    Decision boxes (DBoxes) are two-page evidence summaries to prepare clinicians for shared decision making (SDM). We sought to assess the feasibility of a clustered Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) to evaluate their impact. A convenience sample of clinicians (nurses, physicians and residents) from six primary healthcare clinics who received eight DBoxes and rated their interest in the topic and satisfaction. After consultations, their patients rated their involvement in decision-making processes (SDM-Q-9 instrument). We measured clinic and clinician recruitment rates, questionnaire completion rates, patient eligibility rates, and estimated the RCT needed sample size. Among the 20 family medicine clinics invited to participate in this study, four agreed to participate, giving an overall recruitment rate of 20%. Of 148 clinicians invited to the study, 93 participated (63%). Clinicians rated an interest in the topics ranging 6.4-8.2 out of 10 (with 10 highest) and a satisfaction with DBoxes of 4 or 5 out of 5 (with 5 highest) for 81% DBoxes. For the future RCT, we estimated that a sample size of 320 patients would allow detecting a 9% mean difference in the SDM-Q-9 ratings between our two arms (0.02 ICC; 0.05 significance level; 80% power). Clinicians' recruitment and questionnaire completion rates support the feasibility of the planned RCT. The level of interest of participants for the DBox topics, and their level of satisfaction with the Dboxes demonstrate the acceptability of the intervention. Processes to recruit clinics and patients should be optimized.

  11. Error Tendencies in Processing Student Feedback for Instructional Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schermerhorn, John R., Jr.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Seeks to assist instructors in recognizing two basic errors that can occur in processing student evaluation data on instructional development efforts; offers a research framework for future investigations of the error tendencies and related issues; and suggests ways in which instructors can confront and manage error tendencies in practice. (MBR)

  12. Motivated information processing in group judgement and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Dreu, C.K.W.; Nijstad, B.A.; van Knippenberg, D.

    2008-01-01

    This article expands the view of groups as information processors into a motivated information processing in groups (MIP-G) model by emphasizing, first, the mixedmotive structure of many group tasks and, second, the idea that individuals engage in more or less deliberate information search and

  13. Motivated information processing in group judgment and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Dreu, Carsten K. W.; Nijstad, Bernard A.; van Knippenberg, Daan

    This article expands the view of groups as information processors into a motivated information processing in groups (MIP-G) model by emphasizing, first, the mixed-motive structure of many group tasks and, second, the idea that individuals engage in more or less deliberate information search and

  14. Risk-based optimization of land reclamation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Peters, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale land reclamations are generally constructed by means of a landfill well above mean sea level. This can be costly in areas where good quality fill material is scarce. An alternative to save materials and costs is a ‘polder terminal’. The quay wall acts as a flood defense and the terminal level is well below the level of the quay wall. Compared with a conventional terminal, the costs are lower, but an additional flood risk is introduced. In this paper, a risk-based optimization is developed for a conventional and a polder terminal. It considers the investment and residual flood risk. The method takes into account both the quay wall and terminal level, which determine the probability and damage of flooding. The optimal quay wall level is found by solving a Lambert function numerically. The terminal level is bounded by engineering boundary conditions, i.e. piping and uplift of the cover layer of the terminal yard. It is found that, for a representative case study, the saving of reclamation costs for a polder terminal is larger than the increase of flood risk. The model is applicable to other cases of land reclamation and to similar optimization problems in flood risk management. - Highlights: • A polder terminal can be an attractive alternative for a conventional terminal. • A polder terminal is feasible at locations with high reclamation cost. • A risk-based approach is required to determine the optimal protection levels. • The depth of the polder terminal yard is bounded by uplifting of the cover layer. • This paper can support decisions regarding alternatives for port expansions.

  15. Process-tracing methods in decision making: on growing up in the 70s

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M.; Johnson, J.G.; Böckenholt, U.; Goldstein, D.G.; Russo, J.E.; Sullivan, N.J.; Willemsen, M.C.

    2017-01-01

    Decision research has experienced a shift from simple algebraic theories of choice to an appreciation of mental processes underlying choice. A variety of process-tracing methods has helped researchers test these process explanations. Here, we provide a survey of these methods, including specific

  16. Dual Processing Model for Medical Decision-Making: An Extension to Diagnostic Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Kumar, Ambuj; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Dual Processing Theories (DPT) assume that human cognition is governed by two distinct types of processes typically referred to as type 1 (intuitive) and type 2 (deliberative). Based on DPT we have derived a Dual Processing Model (DPM) to describe and explain therapeutic medical decision-making. The DPM model indicates that doctors decide to treat when treatment benefits outweigh its harms, which occurs when the probability of the disease is greater than the so called "threshold probability" at which treatment benefits are equal to treatment harms. Here we extend our work to include a wider class of decision problems that involve diagnostic testing. We illustrate applicability of the proposed model in a typical clinical scenario considering the management of a patient with prostate cancer. To that end, we calculate and compare two types of decision-thresholds: one that adheres to expected utility theory (EUT) and the second according to DPM. Our results showed that the decisions to administer a diagnostic test could be better explained using the DPM threshold. This is because such decisions depend on objective evidence of test/treatment benefits and harms as well as type 1 cognition of benefits and harms, which are not considered under EUT. Given that type 1 processes are unique to each decision-maker, this means that the DPM threshold will vary among different individuals. We also showed that when type 1 processes exclusively dominate decisions, ordering a diagnostic test does not affect a decision; the decision is based on the assessment of benefits and harms of treatment. These findings could explain variations in the treatment and diagnostic patterns documented in today's clinical practice.

  17. Dual Processing Model for Medical Decision-Making: An Extension to Diagnostic Testing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Tsalatsanis

    Full Text Available Dual Processing Theories (DPT assume that human cognition is governed by two distinct types of processes typically referred to as type 1 (intuitive and type 2 (deliberative. Based on DPT we have derived a Dual Processing Model (DPM to describe and explain therapeutic medical decision-making. The DPM model indicates that doctors decide to treat when treatment benefits outweigh its harms, which occurs when the probability of the disease is greater than the so called "threshold probability" at which treatment benefits are equal to treatment harms. Here we extend our work to include a wider class of decision problems that involve diagnostic testing. We illustrate applicability of the proposed model in a typical clinical scenario considering the management of a patient with prostate cancer. To that end, we calculate and compare two types of decision-thresholds: one that adheres to expected utility theory (EUT and the second according to DPM. Our results showed that the decisions to administer a diagnostic test could be better explained using the DPM threshold. This is because such decisions depend on objective evidence of test/treatment benefits and harms as well as type 1 cognition of benefits and harms, which are not considered under EUT. Given that type 1 processes are unique to each decision-maker, this means that the DPM threshold will vary among different individuals. We also showed that when type 1 processes exclusively dominate decisions, ordering a diagnostic test does not affect a decision; the decision is based on the assessment of benefits and harms of treatment. These findings could explain variations in the treatment and diagnostic patterns documented in today's clinical practice.

  18. Reward processing and intertemporal decision making in adults and adolescents: the role of impulsivity and decision consistency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripke, Stephan; Hübner, Thomas; Mennigen, Eva; Müller, Kathrin U; Rodehacke, Sarah; Schmidt, Dirk; Jacob, Mark J; Smolka, Michael N

    2012-10-10

    Several studies report differences between adults and adolescents in reward processing and impulsivity. Consistently, adolescents are more impulsive in their decision making, as measured by intertemporal choice tasks. Since impulsivity affects an individual's perception and neural processing of rewards, it is unclear whether previously reported differences in brain activation between adults and adolescents are primarily due to maturation of the brain reward system or differences in impulsivity (i.e. discounting behaviour). To disentangle this, we analysed data from 235 adolescents and 29 adults who performed an intertemporal choice task in which monetary rewards were adapted to individual impulsivity. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we measured brain activity and assessed impulsivity and consistency of choices at the behavioural level. Although adolescents discounted delayed rewards more steeply than adults, when controlling for impulsivity, neural processing of reward value did not differ between groups. However, more impulsive subjects showed a lower brain response to delayed rewards, independent of age. Concerning decision making, adolescents exhibited a lower consistency of choices and less brain activity in the parietal network than adults. We conclude that processing of the value of prospective delayed rewards is more sensitive to discounting behaviour than to chronological age. Lower consistency of intertemporal choices might indicate ongoing maturation of parietal brain areas in adolescents. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk perception and decision processes underlying informed consent to research participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, William W; Nelson, Robert M

    2007-11-01

    According to the rational choice model, informed consent should consist of a systematic, step-by-step evaluation of all information pertinent to the treatment or research participation decision. Research shows that people frequently deviate from this normative model, however, employing decision-making shortcuts, or heuristics. In this paper we report findings from a qualitative study of 32 adolescents and (their) 31 parents who were recruited from two Northeastern US hospitals and asked to consider the risks of and make hypothetical decisions about research participation. The purpose of this study was to increase our understanding of how diabetic and at-risk adolescents (i.e., those who are obese and/or have a family history of diabetes) and their parents perceive risks and make decisions about research participation. Using data collected from adolescents and parents, we identify heuristic decision processes in which participant perceptions of risk magnitude, which are formed quickly and intuitively and appear to be based on affective responses to information, are far more prominent and central to the participation decision than are perceptions of probability. We discuss participants' use of decision-making heuristics in the context of recent research on affect and decision processes, and we consider the implications of these findings for researchers.

  20. Disrupted latent decision processes in medication-free pediatric OCD patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erhan, Ceyla; Bulut, Gresa Çarkaxhiu; Gökçe, Sebla; Ozbas, Duru; Turkakin, Esin; Dursun, Onur Burak; Yazgan, Yanki; Balcı, Fuat

    2017-01-01

    Decision-making in Obsessive Compulsive Disorder has typically been investigated in the adult population. Computational approaches have recently started to get integrated into these studies. However, decision-making research in pediatric OCD populations is scarce. We investigated latent decision processes in 21 medication-free pediatric OCD patients and 23 healthy control participants. We hypothesized that OCD patients would be more cautious and less efficient in evidence accumulation than controls in a two alternative forced choice (2AFC) task. Pediatric OCD patients were less efficient than controls in accumulating perceptual evidence and showed a tendency to be more cautious. In comparison to post-correct decisions, OCD patients increased decision thresholds after erroneous decisions, whereas healthy controls decreased decision thresholds. These changes were coupled with weaker evidence accumulation after errors in both groups. The small sample size limited the power of the study. Our results demonstrate poorer decision-making performance in pediatric OCD patients at the level of latent processes, specifically in terms of evidence accumulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Advancing in the Career Decision-Making Process: The Role of Coping Strategies and Career Decision-Making Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Maya; Gati, Itamar

    2017-01-01

    We tested the associations among the career decision-making difficulties, the career decision status, and either (a) the career decision-making profiles of 575 young adults, or (b) the coping strategies of 379 young adults. As hypothesized, a more advanced decision status was negatively associated with both career decision-making difficulties…

  2. How Are Distributed Groups Affected by an Imposed Structuring of their Decision-Making Process?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundell, Anders Lorentz; Hertzum, Morten

    2011-01-01

    Groups often suffer from ineffective communication and decision making. This experimental study compares distributed groups solving a preference task with support from either a communication system or a system providing both communication and a structuring of the decision-making process. Results...... show that groups using the latter system spend more time solving the task, spend more of their time on solution analysis, spend less of their time on disorganized activity, and arrive at task solutions with less extreme preferences. Thus, the type of system affects the decision-making process as well...... as its outcome. Notably, the task solutions arrived at by the groups using the system that imposes a structuring of the decision-making process show limited correlation with the task solutions suggested by the system on the basis of the groups’ explicitly stated criteria. We find no differences in group...

  3. The Production of Green Identities in Garbage Can Decision-making Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Backer, Lise

    of organisational identities to the model. Within the scientific field of business and the environment the article contributes to a new understanding of the relationship between decision-making, green organisational identities and the process of social construction of business opportunities. This relationship can...... the decision has happened. Thus, in the process of accounting for their decision the corporations are not just accounting for a particular decision, but also in a general sense contributing to socially constructing anew what can be considered a business opportunity - also for other corporations....... In this process of socially constructing new business opportunities the corporations are drawing on cultural sources not just from the field of rhetoric of economics, but also from other cultural sources within the business sector and the society as such....

  4. Learning to maximize reward rate: a model based on semi-Markov decision processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodadadi, Arash; Fakhari, Pegah; Busemeyer, Jerome R

    2014-01-01

    WHEN ANIMALS HAVE TO MAKE A NUMBER OF DECISIONS DURING A LIMITED TIME INTERVAL, THEY FACE A FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM: how much time they should spend on each decision in order to achieve the maximum possible total outcome. Deliberating more on one decision usually leads to more outcome but less time will remain for other decisions. In the framework of sequential sampling models, the question is how animals learn to set their decision threshold such that the total expected outcome achieved during a limited time is maximized. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical framework for answering this question. To this end, we consider an experimental design in which each trial can come from one of the several possible "conditions." A condition specifies the difficulty of the trial, the reward, the penalty and so on. We show that to maximize the expected reward during a limited time, the subject should set a separate value of decision threshold for each condition. We propose a model of learning the optimal value of decision thresholds based on the theory of semi-Markov decision processes (SMDP). In our model, the experimental environment is modeled as an SMDP with each "condition" being a "state" and the value of decision thresholds being the "actions" taken in those states. The problem of finding the optimal decision thresholds then is cast as the stochastic optimal control problem of taking actions in each state in the corresponding SMDP such that the average reward rate is maximized. Our model utilizes a biologically plausible learning algorithm to solve this problem. The simulation results show that at the beginning of learning the model choses high values of decision threshold which lead to sub-optimal performance. With experience, however, the model learns to lower the value of decision thresholds till finally it finds the optimal values.

  5. The application of the heuristic-systematic processing model to treatment decision making about prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steginga, Suzanne K; Occhipinti, Stefano

    2004-01-01

    The study investigated the utility of the Heuristic-Systematic Processing Model as a framework for the investigation of patient decision making. A total of 111 men recently diagnosed with localized prostate cancer were assessed using Verbal Protocol Analysis and self-report measures. Study variables included men's use of nonsystematic and systematic information processing, desire for involvement in decision making, and the individual differences of health locus of control, tolerance of ambiguity, and decision-related uncertainty. Most men (68%) preferred that decision making be shared equally between them and their doctor. Men's use of the expert opinion heuristic was related to men's verbal reports of decisional uncertainty and having a positive orientation to their doctor and medical care; a desire for greater involvement in decision making was predicted by a high internal locus of health control. Trends were observed for systematic information processing to increase when the heuristic strategy used was negatively affect laden and when men were uncertain about the probabilities for cure and side effects. There was a trend for decreased systematic processing when the expert opinion heuristic was used. Findings were consistent with the Heuristic-Systematic Processing Model and suggest that this model has utility for future research in applied decision making about health.

  6. CorRECTreatment: a web-based decision support tool for rectal cancer treatment that uses the analytic hierarchy process and decision tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suner, A; Karakülah, G; Dicle, O; Sökmen, S; Çelikoğlu, C C

    2015-01-01

    The selection of appropriate rectal cancer treatment is a complex multi-criteria decision making process, in which clinical decision support systems might be used to assist and enrich physicians' decision making. The objective of the study was to develop a web-based clinical decision support tool for physicians in the selection of potentially beneficial treatment options for patients with rectal cancer. The updated decision model contained 8 and 10 criteria in the first and second steps respectively. The decision support model, developed in our previous study by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which determines the priority of criteria and decision tree that formed using these priorities, was updated and applied to 388 patients data collected retrospectively. Later, a web-based decision support tool named corRECTreatment was developed. The compatibility of the treatment recommendations by the expert opinion and the decision support tool was examined for its consistency. Two surgeons were requested to recommend a treatment and an overall survival value for the treatment among 20 different cases that we selected and turned into a scenario among the most common and rare treatment options in the patient data set. In the AHP analyses of the criteria, it was found that the matrices, generated for both decision steps, were consistent (consistency ratiodecisions of experts, the consistency value for the most frequent cases was found to be 80% for the first decision step and 100% for the second decision step. Similarly, for rare cases consistency was 50% for the first decision step and 80% for the second decision step. The decision model and corRECTreatment, developed by applying these on real patient data, are expected to provide potential users with decision support in rectal cancer treatment processes and facilitate them in making projections about treatment options.

  7. Toward theoretical understanding of the fertility preservation decision-making process: Examining information processing among young women with cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hershberger, Patricia E.; Finnegan, Lorna; Altfeld, Susan; Lake, Sara; Hirshfeld-Cytron, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    Background Young women with cancer now face the complex decision about whether to undergo fertility preservation. Yet little is known about how these women process information involved in making this decision. Objective The purpose of this paper is to expand theoretical understanding of the decision-making process by examining aspects of information processing among young women diagnosed with cancer. Methods Using a grounded theory approach, 27 women with cancer participated in individual, semi-structured interviews. Data were coded and analyzed using constant-comparison techniques that were guided by five dimensions within the Contemplate phase of the decision-making process framework. Results In the first dimension, young women acquired information primarily from clinicians and Internet sources. Experiential information, often obtained from peers, occurred in the second dimension. Preferences and values were constructed in the third dimension as women acquired factual, moral, and ethical information. Women desired tailored, personalized information that was specific to their situation in the fourth dimension; however, women struggled with communicating these needs to clinicians. In the fifth dimension, women offered detailed descriptions of clinician behaviors that enhance or impede decisional debriefing. Conclusion Better understanding of theoretical underpinnings surrounding women’s information processes can facilitate decision support and improve clinical care. PMID:24552086

  8. Toward theoretical understanding of the fertility preservation decision-making process: examining information processing among young women with cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hershberger, Patricia E; Finnegan, Lorna; Altfeld, Susan; Lake, Sara; Hirshfeld-Cytron, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    Young women with cancer now face the complex decision about whether to undergo fertility preservation. Yet little is known about how these women process information involved in making this decision. The purpose of this article is to expand theoretical understanding of the decision-making process by examining aspects of information processing among young women diagnosed with cancer. Using a grounded theory approach, 27 women with cancer participated in individual, semistructured interviews. Data were coded and analyzed using constant-comparison techniques that were guided by 5 dimensions within the Contemplate phase of the decision-making process framework. In the first dimension, young women acquired information primarily from clinicians and Internet sources. Experiential information, often obtained from peers, occurred in the second dimension. Preferences and values were constructed in the third dimension as women acquired factual, moral, and ethical information. Women desired tailored, personalized information that was specific to their situation in the fourth dimension; however, women struggled with communicating these needs to clinicians. In the fifth dimension, women offered detailed descriptions of clinician behaviors that enhance or impede decisional debriefing. Better understanding of theoretical underpinnings surrounding women's information processes can facilitate decision support and improve clinical care.

  9. Detecting fast, online reasoning processes in clinical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Amanda; Cobos, Pedro L; López, Francisco J; Godoy, Antonio

    2014-06-01

    In an experiment that used the inconsistency paradigm, experienced clinical psychologists and psychology students performed a reading task using clinical reports and a diagnostic judgment task. The clinical reports provided information about the symptoms of hypothetical clients who had been previously diagnosed with a specific mental disorder. Reading times of inconsistent target sentences were slower than those of control sentences, demonstrating an inconsistency effect. The results also showed that experienced clinicians gave different weights to different symptoms according to their relevance when fluently reading the clinical reports provided, despite the fact that all the symptoms were of equal diagnostic value according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text rev.; American Psychiatric Association, 2000). The diagnostic judgment task yielded a similar pattern of results. In contrast to previous findings, the results of the reading task may be taken as direct evidence of the intervention of reasoning processes that occur very early, rapidly, and online. We suggest that these processes are based on the representation of mental disorders and that these representations are particularly suited to fast retrieval from memory and to making inferences. They may also be related to the clinicians' causal reasoning. The implications of these results for clinician training are also discussed.

  10. Psychiatric service staff perceptions of implementing a shared decision-making tool: a process evaluation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schön, Ulla-Karin; Grim, Katarina; Wallin, Lars; Rosenberg, David; Svedberg, Petra

    2018-12-01

    Shared decision making, SDM, in psychiatric services, supports users to experience a greater sense of involvement in treatment, self-efficacy, autonomy and reduced coercion. Decision tools adapted to the needs of users have the potential to support SDM and restructure how users and staff work together to arrive at shared decisions. The aim of this study was to describe and analyse the implementation process of an SDM intervention for users of psychiatric services in Sweden. The implementation was studied through a process evaluation utilizing both quantitative and qualitative methods. In designing the process evaluation for the intervention, three evaluation components were emphasized: contextual factors, implementation issues and mechanisms of impact. The study addresses critical implementation issues related to decision-making authority, the perceived decision-making ability of users and the readiness of the service to increase influence and participation. It also emphasizes the importance of facilitation, as well as suggesting contextual adaptations that may be relevant for the local organizations. The results indicate that staff perceived the decision support tool as user-friendly and useful in supporting participation in decision-making, and suggest that such concrete supports to participation can be a factor in implementation if adequate attention is paid to organizational contexts and structures.

  11. The Hinkley Point decision: An analysis of the policy process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    In 2006, the British government launched a policy to build nuclear power reactors based on a claim that the power produced would be competitive with fossil fuel and would require no public subsidy. A decade later, it is not clear how many, if any, orders will be placed and the claims on costs and subsidies have proved false. Despite this failure to deliver, the policy is still being pursued with undiminished determination. The finance model that is now proposed is seen as a model other European countries can follow so the success or otherwise of the British nuclear programme will have implications outside the UK. This paper contends that the checks and balances that should weed out misguided policies, have failed. It argues that the most serious failure is with the civil service and its inability to provide politicians with high quality advice – truth to power. It concludes that the failure is likely to be due to the unwillingness of politicians to listen to opinions that conflict with their beliefs. Other weaknesses include the lack of energy expertise in the media, the unwillingness of the public to engage in the policy process and the impotence of Parliamentary Committees. - Highlights: •Britain's nuclear power policy is failing due to high costs and problems of finance. •This has implications for European countries who want to use the same financing model. •The continued pursuit of a failing policy is due to poor advice from civil servants. •Lack of expertise in the media and lack of public engagement have contributed. •Parliamentary processes have not provided proper critical scrutiny.

  12. A risk-based sensor placement methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

    2008-01-01

    A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

  13. Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

  14. Processes of decision making on energy issues: micro and macro analysis (the case of Poland 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Iwińska

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Article tackles the idea of environmental and participatory democracy in Poland. Due to Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters known as the Aarhus Convention people should be involved in decisions concerning environment and energy issues in the country. All large investments, and those are certainly investments in energy infrastructure, are associated with a variety of interest groups and organizations. The main goal of this article is to show the decision making processes do not come across the knowledge and public information on nuclear energy in Poland. We present the context and background for the structural model of energy decisions using and reinterpreting survey data from 2014 and 2015 from the opinion polls on various sources of energy in Poland. From this point of departure we distinguish the micro-, meso- and macro- level of energy decisions.

  15. Facilitators and constraints at each stage of the migration decision process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kley, Stefanie

    2017-10-01

    Behavioural models of migration emphasize the importance of migration decision-making for the explanation of subsequent behaviour. But empirical migration research regularly finds considerable gaps between those who intend to migrate and those who actually realize their intention. This paper applies the Theory of Planned Behaviour, enriched by the Rubicon model, to test specific hypotheses about distinct effects of facilitators and constraints on specific stages of migration decision-making and behaviour. The data come from a tailor-made panel survey based on random samples of people drawn from two German cities in 2006-07. The results show that in conventional models the effects of facilitators and constraints on migration decision-making are likely to be underestimated. Splitting the process of migration decision-making into a pre-decisional and a pre-actional phase helps to avoid bias in the estimated effects of facilitators and constraints on both migration decision-making and migration behaviour.

  16. Decision support systems in water and wastewater treatment process selection and design: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamouda, M A; Anderson, W B; Huck, P M

    2009-01-01

    The continuously changing drivers of the water treatment industry, embodied by rigorous environmental and health regulations and the challenge of emerging contaminants, necessitates the development of decision support systems for the selection of appropriate treatment trains. This paper explores a systematic approach to developing decision support systems, which includes the analysis of the treatment problem(s), knowledge acquisition and representation, and the identification and evaluation of criteria controlling the selection of optimal treatment systems. The objective of this article is to review approaches and methods used in decision support systems developed to aid in the selection, sequencing of unit processes and design of drinking water, domestic wastewater, and industrial wastewater treatment systems. Not surprisingly, technical considerations were found to dominate the logic of the developed systems. Most of the existing decision-support tools employ heuristic knowledge. It has been determined that there is a need to develop integrated decision support systems that are generic, usable and consider a system analysis approach.

  17. Integrated preventive maintenance and production decisions for imperfect processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nourelfath, Mustapha; Nahas, Nabil; Ben-Daya, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    This paper integrates production, maintenance, and quality for an imperfect process in a multi-period multi-product capacitated lot-sizing context. The production system is modeled as an imperfect machine, whose the status is considered to be either in-control or out-of-control. When the machine is out of control, it produces a fraction of nonconforming items. During each period, this machine is inspected and imperfect preventive maintenance activities are simultaneously performed to reduce its age, proportional to the preventive maintenance level. The objective is to minimize the total cost, while satisfying the demand for all products. Our optimization model allows for a joint selection of the optimal values of production plan, and the maintenance policy, while taking into account quality related costs. A solution algorithm is developed and illustrative numerical examples are presented. It is found that the increase in PM level leads to reductions in quality control costs. Furthermore, if the cost of performing PM is high to the point where it is not compensated for by reductions in the quality related costs, then performing PM is not justifiable. Finally, using non-periodic preventive maintenance with the possibility of different preventive maintenance levels may result in an improvement of the total cost. - Highlights: • We integrate production, maintenance, and quality. • We evaluate all the expected costs. • Our model allows for a joint selection of the optimal values. • A solution algorithm is developed. • Increasing PM level will decrease quality control costs.

  18. The consequences of introducing IT systems for decision-making processes in healthcare institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzena Furtak-Niczyporuk

    2017-03-01

      Aim: The aim of the study was the diagnosis of management decision-making in the therapeutic entity, for possible implementation tools in the form of an information system, which could accelerate and support the rational process of making those decisions. In addition, work was to evaluate the role of management decisions and the implications of the information system on the process of rational decision-making in the management entity therapeutic.   Material and Methods: The case study method allowed us to show the practical applications and benefits resulting from the application system to support rational decision-making management, in particular in terms of reducing costs and improving the organization of health services offered.   The results and conclusions: Presented system generates a database to support rational decision-making process in the field of management, minimize their costs while improving the organization of health services. Ability to use various functions of the system allows for multi-segment analysis, thanks to the specially chosen and condensed information, both in the form of text and graphics over any time horizon. Benefits of the implications of the system is the speed and efficiency of the whole process of treatment, as well as the reduction of administrative tasks of medical staff, which increases the time for the patient.

  19. Factors affecting long-term-care residents' decision-making processes as they formulate advance directives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Heather C; McColl, Mary Ann; Gilbert, Julie; Wong, Jiahui; Murray, Gale; Shortt, Samuel E D

    2005-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe factors contributing to the decision-making processes of elderly persons as they formulate advance directives in long-term care. This study was qualitative, based on grounded theory. Recruitment was purposive and continued until saturation was reached. Nine residents of a long-term-care facility were interviewed by use of a semistructured format. Open and axial coding of interview transcripts were carried out and the factors contributing to the decision process were defined. Elders based their decisions primarily on information gathered from personal experiences with death and illness. They obtained very little information from professionals or the media. Major factors considered by elders as they weighed information included spiritual, emotional, and social considerations. The factors considered during the decision-making process were oriented more toward the individual's experiences and less on contributions from objective sources than anticipated. Decision making for advance directives is a highly personalized process. The approach of health professionals when assisting with end-of-life decision making should be planned with these contributing factors in mind, so that the services offered to the individuals in this population best meet their needs.

  20. A quantitative risk-based model for reasoning over critical system properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, M. S.

    2002-01-01

    This position paper suggests the use of a quantitative risk-based model to help support reeasoning and decision making that spans many of the critical properties such as security, safety, survivability, fault tolerance, and real-time.

  1. THE FEATURES OF THE PROCESS OF MANAGERIAL DECISION-MAKING IN THE ENTERPRISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Romanovskaya

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses issues related to the development and acceptance of administrative decisions in the enterprise. The large number of publications in the field of research of the process of managerial decision-making demonstrates its relevance for effective management of the enterprise. The article presents the author's approach to the disclosure of the nature and concepts of the term «management decision», a substantive analysis of the main elements of the theoretical aspect of managerial decision-making. The increased competition associated with market liberalization and globalization of world economy, requires from senior management of an effective control system. The authors revised classification criteria and allocated them accordingly the kinds of management decisions; identifies the main stages of development and adoption of management decisions. The article is devoted to finding new ways of making decisions to improve the efficiency of enterprise management. It is noted that for optimal decision making, it is required to calculate the impact of its implementation on the value of the enterprise as a whole or the size of its economic effect.

  2. Theory of mind and decision-making processes are impaired in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Chunhua; Zhu, Youling; Mu, Yanfang; Chen, Bing; Dong, Bin; Cheng, Huaidong; Hu, Panpan; Zhu, Chunyan; Wang, Kai

    2015-02-15

    Prefrontal cortex plays a vital role in the theory of mind (ToM) and decision making, as shown in functional brain imaging and lesion studies. Considering the primary neuropathology of Parkinson's disease (PD) involving the frontal lobe system, patients with PD are expected to exhibit deficits in ToM and social decision making. The aim of this study was to investigate affective ToM and decision making in patients with PD and healthy controls (HC) in a task assessing affective ToM (Reading the Mind in the Eyes, RME) and two decision-making tasks (Iowa Gambling Task, IGT; Game of Dice Task, GDT). Consistent with previous findings, patients with PD were impaired in the affective ToM task, and when making decisions under ambiguity and in risk situations. The score of emotion recognition in the RME task was negatively correlated with the severity of the disease and positively correlated with the total number of advantageous cards chosen in the IGT. However, the final capital in the GDT was correlated with memory impairment. The present study implies that affective ToM and decision making under ambiguity may share similar neural mechanisms, while decision making under ambiguity and decision making under risk may involve processing within different neural networks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Decision-making process to shut down, refurbish/modify, or decommission research reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stover, R.L.; Murphie, W.E.

    1992-01-01

    Most US research reactors were built more than 20 years ago and some more than 40 years ago. Many have undergone refurbishments and modifications to update their safety systems and experimental capabilities. But changing safety bases, social concerns, and budget constraints have required research reactor operators to continually make decisions to shut down or refurbish/modify their facilities. These decisions involve potential replacement of reactor equipment that has reached its lifetime limits. Changes in philosophy and operation of the reactors are also factors to be considered. In this paper, each of the four factors involved in the decision-making process are discussed in detail. Then, several examples from DOE research reactors in the United States are discussed. Finally, some general conclusions are given to aid in the decision-making process

  4. Decision support for selecting exportable nuclear technology using the analytic hierarchy process: A Korean case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Deok Joo; Hwang, Jooho

    2010-01-01

    The Korean government plans to increase strategically focused R and D investment in some promising nuclear technology areas to create export opportunities of technology in a global nuclear market. The purpose of this paper is to present a decision support process for selecting promising nuclear technology with the perspective of exportability by using the AHP based on extensive data gathered from nuclear experts in Korea. In this study, the decision criteria for evaluating the export competitiveness of nuclear technologies were determined, and a hierarchical structure for the decision-making process was systematically developed. Subsequently relative weights of decision criteria were derived using AHP methodology and the export competitiveness of nuclear technology alternatives was quantified to prioritize them. We discuss the implications of our results with a viewpoint toward national nuclear technology policy.

  5. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

  6. An Analysis of the Associations among Cognitive Impulsiveness, Reasoning Process, and Rational Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jelihovschi, Ana P. G.; Cardoso, Ricardo L.; Linhares, Alexandre

    2018-01-01

    Impulsivity may lead to several unfortunate consequences and maladaptive behaviors for both clinical and nonclinical people. It has a key role in many forms of psychopathology. Although literature has discussed the negative impact of impulsivity, few have emphasized the relationship between cognitive impulsiveness and decision making. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of cognitive impulsiveness on decision making and explore the strategies used by participants to solve problems. For this purpose, we apply two measures of impulsivity: the self-report Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11) and the performance based Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). Moreover, we evaluate participants' reasoning processes employed to answer CRT questions based on the calculation expressions, data organization, and erasures they made while answering the CRT (note that we utilized the instruments using pen and paper). These reasoning processes are related to the role of executive functions in decision making, and its relationship with impulsiveness. The sample consists of 191 adults, who were either professionals or undergraduate students from the fields of business, management, or accounting. The results show that cognitive impulsiveness may negatively affect decision making, and that those who presented the calculation to answer the CRT questions made better decisions. Moreover, there was no difference in the strategies used by impulsive vs. nonimpulsive participants during decision making. Finally, people who inhibited their immediate answers to CRT questions performed better during decision making. PMID:29375440

  7. An Analysis of the Associations among Cognitive Impulsiveness, Reasoning Process, and Rational Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jelihovschi, Ana P G; Cardoso, Ricardo L; Linhares, Alexandre

    2017-01-01

    Impulsivity may lead to several unfortunate consequences and maladaptive behaviors for both clinical and nonclinical people. It has a key role in many forms of psychopathology. Although literature has discussed the negative impact of impulsivity, few have emphasized the relationship between cognitive impulsiveness and decision making. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of cognitive impulsiveness on decision making and explore the strategies used by participants to solve problems. For this purpose, we apply two measures of impulsivity: the self-report Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11) and the performance based Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). Moreover, we evaluate participants' reasoning processes employed to answer CRT questions based on the calculation expressions, data organization, and erasures they made while answering the CRT (note that we utilized the instruments using pen and paper). These reasoning processes are related to the role of executive functions in decision making, and its relationship with impulsiveness. The sample consists of 191 adults, who were either professionals or undergraduate students from the fields of business, management, or accounting. The results show that cognitive impulsiveness may negatively affect decision making, and that those who presented the calculation to answer the CRT questions made better decisions. Moreover, there was no difference in the strategies used by impulsive vs. nonimpulsive participants during decision making. Finally, people who inhibited their immediate answers to CRT questions performed better during decision making.

  8. An Analysis of the Associations among Cognitive Impulsiveness, Reasoning Process, and Rational Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana P. G. Jelihovschi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Impulsivity may lead to several unfortunate consequences and maladaptive behaviors for both clinical and nonclinical people. It has a key role in many forms of psychopathology. Although literature has discussed the negative impact of impulsivity, few have emphasized the relationship between cognitive impulsiveness and decision making. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of cognitive impulsiveness on decision making and explore the strategies used by participants to solve problems. For this purpose, we apply two measures of impulsivity: the self-report Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11 and the performance based Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT. Moreover, we evaluate participants' reasoning processes employed to answer CRT questions based on the calculation expressions, data organization, and erasures they made while answering the CRT (note that we utilized the instruments using pen and paper. These reasoning processes are related to the role of executive functions in decision making, and its relationship with impulsiveness. The sample consists of 191 adults, who were either professionals or undergraduate students from the fields of business, management, or accounting. The results show that cognitive impulsiveness may negatively affect decision making, and that those who presented the calculation to answer the CRT questions made better decisions. Moreover, there was no difference in the strategies used by impulsive vs. nonimpulsive participants during decision making. Finally, people who inhibited their immediate answers to CRT questions performed better during decision making.

  9. Getting ocean acidification on decision makers' to-do lists: dissecting the process through case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooley, Sarah R.; Jewett, Elizabeth B.; Reichert, Julie; Robbins, Lisa L.; Shrestha, Gyami; Wieczorek, Dan; Weisberg, Stephen B.

    2015-01-01

    Much of the detailed, incremental knowledge being generated by current scientific research on ocean acidification (OA) does not directly address the needs of decision makers, who are asking broad questions such as: Where will OA harm marine resources next? When will this happen? Who will be affected? And how much will it cost? In this review, we use a series of mainly US-based case studies to explore the needs of local to international-scale groups that are making decisions to address OA concerns. Decisions concerning OA have been made most naturally and easily when information needs were clearly defined and closely aligned with science outputs and initiatives. For decisions requiring more complex information, the process slows dramatically. Decision making about OA is greatly aided (1) when a mixture of specialists participates, including scientists, resource users and managers, and policy and law makers; (2) when goals can be clearly agreed upon at the beginning of the process; (3) when mixed groups of specialists plan and create translational documents explaining the likely outcomes of policy decisions on ecosystems and natural resources; (4) when regional work on OA fits into an existing set of priorities concerning climate or water quality; and (5) when decision making can be reviewed and enhanced.

  10. A Review of Previous Studies on Information Processing in Career Decision Making among University Students

    OpenAIRE

    池田, 智子; Satoko, Ikeda

    2018-01-01

    This review of the researches of career choice of Japanese university students focused the studies on decision-making theory conducted in Japan. The present review suggested the necessity of examination of the effect of self-efficacy about career information search on the process of career choice. It is also needed to examine the relationship between specific self-efficacy about career information search and career decision-making self-efficacy, moreover, general self-efficacy.

  11. Effects of Hispanic Ethnic Identification on Marital Roles in the Purchase Decision Process.

    OpenAIRE

    Webster, Cynthia

    1994-01-01

    The research reported in this article investigated the relationship between Hispanic ethnic identification and marital roles as couples proceed through the purchase decision process. Significant differences were found among the Hispanic ethnic identification groups in most of the decision stages for a variety of product categories, even after the effects of social class and length of marriage were removed. The findings of this study revealed a significant positive relationship between ethnic ...

  12. The purchase decision process and involvement of the elderly regarding nonprescription products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisenwitz, T H; Wimbish, G J

    1997-01-01

    The elderly or senior citizen is a large and growing market segment that purchases a disproportionate amount of health care products, particularly nonprescription products. This study attempts to examine the elderly's level of involvement (high versus low) and their purchase decision process regarding nonprescription or over-the-counter (OTC) products. Frequencies and percentages are calculated to indicate level of involvement as well as purchase decision behavior. Previous research is critiqued and managerial implications are discussed.

  13. Multi-criteria decision making in product-driven process synthesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridder, de K.; Almeida-Rivera, C.; Bongers, P.M.M.; Bruin, S.; Flapper, S.D.P.; Braunschweig, B.; Joulia, X.

    2008-01-01

    Current efforts in the development of a Product-driven Process Synthesis methodology have been focusing on broadening the design scope to consumer preferences, product attributes, process variables and supply chain considerations. The methodology embraces a decision making activity to be performed

  14. An integrated Markov decision process and nested logit consumer response model of air ticket pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, J.; Feng, T.; Timmermans, H.P.J.; Yang, Z.

    2017-01-01

    The paper attempts to propose an optimal air ticket pricing model during the booking horizon by taking into account passengers' purchasing behavior of air tickets. A Markov decision process incorporating a nested logit consumer response model is established to modeling the dynamic pricing process.

  15. Anticipatory Emotions in Decision Tasks: Covert Markers of Value or Attentional Processes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Tyler; Love, Bradley C.; Maddox, W. Todd

    2009-01-01

    Anticipatory emotions precede behavioral outcomes and provide a means to infer interactions between emotional and cognitive processes. A number of theories hold that anticipatory emotions serve as inputs to the decision process and code the value or risk associated with a stimulus. We argue that current data do not unequivocally support this…

  16. Utilising Benchmarking to Inform Decision-Making at the Institutional Level: A Research-Informed Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Sara

    2013-01-01

    Benchmarking has traditionally been viewed as a way to compare data only; however, its utilisation as a more investigative, research-informed process to add rigor to decision-making processes at the institutional level is gaining momentum in the higher education sector. Indeed, with recent changes in the Australian quality environment from the…

  17. The Decision to Form the Kangan Committee--A Case Study in the Educational Policy Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, John

    1983-01-01

    The postsecondary education policymaking process in Australia, rather than being goal-oriented and rational, is a series of adjustments to existing policy dictated by political expediency, often over many years and changes of government and leading to decisions reflecting unstable origins. This committee's broad influences illustrate this process.…

  18. Characterizing the Buyer Decision Process: the ZMOT model in Chile’s technology sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Escobar Farfán

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an updated application model that identifies the intervening factors in the buyer decision process. In traditional research, the consumer is said to confront two moments of truth before making the decision to buy: first, when encountering the gondola, and then again while experiencing the product. Nevertheless, innovations in information technology have modified this traditional view to include the “Zero Moment of Truth”, known as ZMOT, a name popularized by Google. This analysis is based on the concept of the Zero Moment of Truth which relates to the process that consumers live prior to the purchase decision in which they gather information about the product or service. This study is justified by the absence of research on the ZMOT concept in Chile. To determine the factors involved in the purchase decision, a quantitative methodology was used, through the application of a survey that analyzed three perspectives: the influencing factors during the purchase decision, the activities carried out during the ZMOT, and, finally, the actions carried out after the completion of the purchase and information that will serve for future buyers is gathered. With the data obtained, an exploratory factor analysis was carried out, generating a preliminary multi-dimensional model to describe the factors in the buyer decision process during the information and experience gathering phase known as ZMOT.

  19. Bangkok's mass rapid transit system's commuter decision-making process in using integrated smartcards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peerakan Kaewwongwattana

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper studied the decision-making process to use an integrated smartcard ticketing system by Bangkok metropolitan transit commuters. A second-order Confirmatory Factor Analysis using LISREL 9.10 was undertaken on Bangkok commuter's decision-making process on the use of an integrated smartcard system. The sample consisted of 300 Bangkok commuters obtained by accidental sampling using questionnaires with a 5-point Likert scale. The tools in the research questionnaires used scale estimation that achieved a confidence value of 0.84. The research instruments used rating scales measuring information search, alternative choices, and use decision on the 15 variables in the decision-making process which had factor loadings between 0.49 and 0.89 weight elements when sorted in descending order and overall had a high level. Use decision, alternative choices and information search had a factor of 0.89, 0.65 and 0.49, respectively. There was a good fit of the decision-making model to the empirical data (chi-square = 34.55, probability (p = 0.94, df = 49, RMSEA = 0.00, GFI = 0.98, AGFI = 0.96, SRMR = 0.04.

  20. Social processes used by African American women in making decisions about mammography screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Barbara Ann

    2006-01-01

    To describe the social processes used by African American (AA) women ages > or = 50 years in making decisions about mammography screening. Grounded theory methodology. Tape-recorded interviews with a researcher-designed, semi-structured interview guide with an initial and theoretical sample of 30 AA women ages 52 to 71 of diverse socioeconomic status. Interviews occurred in various settings such as the church rectory, women's homes, and work settings. Extensive written field notes and tapes were transcribed verbatim immediately after the interviews by an experienced transcriptionist. The women's decisions about mammography screening were associated with five social processes: (a) acknowledging prior experiences with healthcare providers and systems; (b) reporting fears and fatalistic beliefs of breast cancer and related treatment; (c) valuing the opinions of significant others; (d) relying on religious beliefs and supports; and (e) caregiving responsibilities of significant others. The processes were further differentiated by three distinct decision-making styles: taking charge, enduring, and protesting. Each of the social processes was reported equally and emphasized by the diverse sample of AA women in decisions related to mammography screening. Mammography screening decisions were heavily influenced by caregiving responsibilities. Further research is needed to explain and understand this social process on the health and well-being of AA women over time.

  1. Risk based surveillance for vector borne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Rene

    of samples and hence early detection of outbreaks. Models for vector borne diseases in Denmark have demonstrated dramatic variation in outbreak risk during the season and between years. The Danish VetMap project aims to make these risk based surveillance estimates available on the veterinarians smart phones...... in Northern Europe. This model approach may be used as a basis for risk based surveillance. In risk based surveillance limited resources for surveillance are targeted at geographical areas most at risk and only when the risk is high. This makes risk based surveillance a cost effective alternative...... sample to a diagnostic laboratory. Risk based surveillance models may reduce this delay. An important feature of risk based surveillance models is their ability to continuously communicate the level of risk to veterinarians and hence increase awareness when risk is high. This is essential for submission...

  2. Risk-based regulation: A regulatory perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarborough, J.C.

    1993-01-01

    In the early development of regulations for nuclear power plants, risk was implicitly considered through qualitative assessments and engineering reliability principles and practices. Examples included worst case analysis, defense in depth, and the single failure criterion. However, the contributions of various systems, structures, components and operator actions to plant safety were not explicitly assessed since a methodology for this purpose had not been developed. As a consequence of the TMI accident, the use of more quantitative risk methodology and information in regulation such as probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) increased. The use of both qualitative and quantitative consideration of risk in regulation has been a set of regulations and regulatory guides and practices that ensure adequate protection of public health and safety. Presently, the development of PRA techniques has developed to the point that safety goals, expressed in terms of risk, have been established to help guide further regulatory decision making. This paper presents the personal opinions of the author as regards the use of risk today in nuclear power plant regulation, areas of further information needs, and necessary plans for moving toward a more systematic use of risk-based information in regulatory initiatives in the future

  3. Dissociable processes underlying decisions in the Iowa Gambling Task: a new integrative framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Napoli Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT is a common paradigm used to study the interactions between emotions and decision making, yet little consensus exists on the cognitive process determining participants' decisions, what affects them, and how these processes interact with each other. A novel conceptual framework is proposed according to which behavior in the IGT reflects a balance between two dissociable processes; a cognitively demanding process that tracks each option's long-term payoff, and a lower-level, automatic process that is primarily sensitive to loss frequency and magnitude. Methods A behavioral experiment was carried out with a modified version of IGT. In this modified version, participants went through an additional phase of interaction, designed to measure performance without further learning, in which no feedback on individual decisions was given. A secondary distractor task was presented in either the first or the second phase of the experiment. Behavioral measures of performance tracking both payoff and frequency sensitivity in choices were collected throughout the experiment. Results Consistent with our framework, the results confirmed that: (a the two competing cognitive processes can be dissociated; (b that learning from decision outcomes requires central cognitive resources to estimate long-term payoff; and (c that the decision phase itself can be carried out during an interfering task once learning has occurred. Conclusion The experimental results support our novel description of the cognitive processes underlying performance in the Iowa Gambling Task. They also suggest that patients' impairments in this and other gambling paradigms can originate from a number of different causes, including a failure in allocating resources among cognitive strategies. This latter interpretation might be particularly useful in explaining the impairments of patients with ventromedial prefrontal cortex lesions and, by extension

  4. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Velthuis, A.G.J.

    2014-01-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process

  5. Characteristics of the postcounseling reproductive decision-making process: an explorative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frets, P G; Verhage, F; Niermeijer, M F

    1991-09-01

    An in-depth, recorded interview of 30 couples 2-3 years after genetic counseling explored the characteristics of the postcounseling decision-making process, including the role of guilt feelings towards the proband. The study concerned couples with an affected child, sib, or spouse. Results were evaluated by 2 to 4 judges. In contrast to other studies, a generally unstructured decision-making process was found whereby guilt feelings played a significant role in more than half the couples. Guilt feelings were more predominant in couples with an affected sib than in those with an affected spouse. Lack of structure did not seem to complicate the decision-making process. Therefore, authors do not advocate promotion of structuring the decision-making process. Genetic counselors might focus on understanding counselees' feelings concerning the reproductive decision. Acceptance of apparently irrational considerations is particularly important, because these feelings indicate the influence of unconscious motives. Another important aspect of supporting counselees is to understand the role played by guilt feelings toward parents or an affected sib.

  6. A Relational Approach to the Acquisition Decision-Making Process in the Military Organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Minculete

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The market relations of military organizations focus on the acquisition of material goods and/or services. Nonetheless, the importance of the decisions related to the supply process is sometimes minimized. This attitude is so harmful for the effi cacy and effi ciency of the activities conducted by the military structure that at times it can have a negative impact on the management staff too. Problems may occur because the acquisition process must unfold performance-oriented; its main objective is the purchasing of material goods and/or services meant to ensure the smooth operation of the activities of the military organization. In case this cannot be achieved, it is highly probable that the mission of the organization itself is compromised. The present article explores the constitutive elements of the acquisition decision-making situation, certainty, uncertainty and risk connected to the purchasing mechanism, as well as the stages of the acquisition decision-making process

  7. The application of Markov decision process with penalty function in restaurant delivery robot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yong; Hu, Zhen; Wang, Ying

    2017-05-01

    As the restaurant delivery robot is often in a dynamic and complex environment, including the chairs inadvertently moved to the channel and customers coming and going. The traditional Markov decision process path planning algorithm is not save, the robot is very close to the table and chairs. To solve this problem, this paper proposes the Markov Decision Process with a penalty term called MDPPT path planning algorithm according to the traditional Markov decision process (MDP). For MDP, if the restaurant delivery robot bumps into an obstacle, the reward it receives is part of the current status reward. For the MDPPT, the reward it receives not only the part of the current status but also a negative constant term. Simulation results show that the MDPPT algorithm can plan a more secure path.

  8. Challenges to fair decision-making processes in the context of health care services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shayo, Elizabeth H.; Norheim, Ole F.; Mboera, Leonard E. G.

    2012-01-01

    challenges to fair decision-making processes in health care services with a special focus on the potential influence of gender, wealth, ethnicity and education. We draw on the principle of fairness as outlined in the deliberative democratic theory. METHODS: The study was carried out in the Mbarali District......ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Fair processes in decision making need the involvement of stakeholders who can discuss issues and reach an agreement based on reasons that are justifiable and appropriate in meeting people's needs. In Tanzania, the policy of decentralization and the health sector reform place......: The study findings indicate a substantial influence of gender, wealth, ethnicity and education on health care decision-making processes. Men, wealthy individuals, members of strong ethnic groups and highly educated individuals had greater influence. Opinions varied among the study informants as to whether...

  9. Factors Affecting Youth Voice in Decision-Making Processes within Youth Development Programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd Tarifa

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Results of a study aimed at determining the factors affecting the level of inclusiveness of youth voice in the decision-making process of the 4-H youth development program are discussed in this paper. State and field level 4-H professionals identified potential factors which affect youth voice in the decision-making process. The information gathered was utilized to identify the degree to which youth voice was incorporated in the decision-making process, to better understand how to suit youth’s needs, identify promising practices, and diagnose barriers towards fostering youth voice within the 4-H youth development program. This feature article presents the findings of the study, and discusses potential ramifications and remedies.

  10. Know the risk, take the win: how executive functions and probability processing influence advantageous decision making under risk conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Matthias; Schiebener, Johannes; Pertl, Marie-Theres; Delazer, Margarete

    2014-01-01

    Recent models on decision making under risk conditions have suggested that numerical abilities are important ingredients of advantageous decision-making performance, but empirical evidence is still limited. The results of our first study show that logical reasoning and basic mental calculation capacities predict ratio processing and that ratio processing predicts decision making under risk. In the second study, logical reasoning together with executive functions predicted probability processing (numeracy and probability knowledge), and probability processing predicted decision making under risk. These findings suggest that increasing an individual's understanding of ratios and probabilities should lead to more advantageous decisions under risk conditions.

  11. The Role of Psychological Adjustment in the Decision-making Process for Voluntary Termination of Pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sereno, Sara; Leal, Isabel; Maroco, João

    2013-07-01

    This study's objective was to evaluate the role of psychological adjustment in the decision-making process to have an abortion and explore individual variables that might influence this decision. In this cross-sectional study, we sequentially enrolled 150 women who made the decision to voluntarily terminate a pregnancy in Maternity Dr. Alfredo da Costa, in Lisbon, Portugal, between September 2008 and June 2009. The instruments were the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS), Satisfaction with Social Support Scale (SSSS), Emotional Assessment Scale (EAS), Decision Conflict Scale (DCS), and Beliefs and Values Questionnaire (BVQ). We analyzed the data using Student's T-tests, MANOVA, ANOVA, Tukey's post-hoc tests and CATPCA. Statistically significant effects were accepted for pdecision difficult and emotionally demanding, although they also identified it as a low conflict decision. The prevailing emotions were sadness, fear and stress; but despite these feelings, the participants remained psychologically adjusted in the moment they decided to have an abortion. The resolution to terminate the pregnancy was essentially shared with supportive people and it was mostly motivated by socio-economic issues. The different beliefs and values found in this sample, and their possible associations are discussed. Despite high levels of stress, the women were psychologically adjusted at the time of making the decision to terminate the pregnancy. However, opposing what has been previously reported, the women presented high levels of sadness and fear, showing that this decision was hard to make, triggering disruptive emotions.

  12. The Logic of Adaptive Behavior - Knowledge Representation and Algorithms for the Markov Decision Process Framework in First-Order Domains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Otterlo, M.

    2008-01-01

    Learning and reasoning in large, structured, probabilistic worlds is at the heart of artificial intelligence. Markov decision processes have become the de facto standard in modeling and solving sequential decision making problems under uncertainty. Many efficient reinforcement learning and dynamic

  13. Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damij, Nadja; Boškoski, Pavle; Bohanec, Marko; Mileva Boshkoska, Biljana

    2016-01-01

    The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies' business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and "what-if" scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results.

  14. Integrating complex business processes for knowledge-driven clinical decision support systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaleswaran, Rishikesan; McGregor, Carolyn

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents in detail the component of the Complex Business Process for Stream Processing framework that is responsible for integrating complex business processes to enable knowledge-driven Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) recommendations. CDSSs aid the clinician in supporting the care of patients by providing accurate data analysis and evidence-based recommendations. However, the incorporation of a dynamic knowledge-management system that supports the definition and enactment of complex business processes and real-time data streams has not been researched. In this paper we discuss the process web service as an innovative method of providing contextual information to a real-time data stream processing CDSS.

  15. Consumer Decision Process in Restaurant Selection: An Application of the Stylized EKB Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia Wickens

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – The aim of this paper is to propose a framework based on empirical work for understanding the consumer decision processes involved in the selection of a restaurant for leisure meals. Design/Methodology/Approach – An interpretive approach is taken in order to understand the intricacies of the process and the various stages in the process. Six focus group interviews with consumers of various ages and occupations in the South East of the United Kingdom were conducted. Findings and implications – The stylized EKB model of the consumer decision process (Tuan-Pham & Higgins, 2005 was used as a framework for developing different stages of the process. Two distinct parts of the process were identified. Occasion was found to be critical to the stage of problem recognition. In terms of evaluation of alternatives and, in particular, sensitivity to evaluative content, the research indicates that the regulatory focus theory of Tuan-Pham and Higgins (2005 applies to the decision of selecting a restaurant. Limitations – It is acknowledged that this exploratory study is based on a small sample in a single geographical area. Originality – The paper is the first application of the stylized EKB model, which takes into account the motivational dimensions of consumer decision making, missing in other models. It concludes that it may have broader applications to other research contexts.

  16. Supporting decision-making processes for evidence-based mental health promotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jané-Llopis, Eva; Katschnig, Heinz; McDaid, David; Wahlbeck, Kristian

    2011-12-01

    The use of evidence is critical in guiding decision-making, but evidence from effect studies will be only one of a number of factors that will need to be taken into account in the decision-making processes. Equally important for policymakers will be the use of different types of evidence including implementation essentials and other decision-making principles such as social justice, political, ethical, equity issues, reflecting public attitudes and the level of resources available, rather than be based on health outcomes alone. This paper, aimed to support decision-makers, highlights the importance of commissioning high-quality evaluations, the key aspects to assess levels of evidence, the importance of supporting evidence-based implementation and what to look out for before, during and after implementation of mental health promotion and mental disorder prevention programmes.

  17. Communicative processes and decision-making in relation to prostate cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Løwe Netsey-Afedo, Mette Margrethe; Birkelund, Regner

    BACKGROUND: There are many benefits of involving patients in decision-making, including increased patient safety and improved health. Many patients with prostate cancer wish to be involved when making decisions in the course of their treatment. However, studies show that Patient Involvement and SDM...... of treatment, it is essential to involve patients' preferences, needs and desires when making decisions during the course of their disease. Furthermore, it is important that patients are adequately informed about treatment, side effects, and other specific issues important for the individual patient. The aim...... of this project is to examine the processes of communication between prostate cancer patients and health professionals related to decision-making in the course of the patient’s treatment. Organizational possibilities and constraints related to the involvement will also be examined. METHODS: Data will be collected...

  18. Integrating Click-Through and Eye-Tracking Logs for Decision-Making Process Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razvan PETRUSEL

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In current software every click of the users is logged, therefore a wealth of click-through information exists. Besides, recent technologies have made eye-tracking affordable and an alternative to other human-computer interaction means (e.g. mouse, touchscreens. A big challenge is to make sense of all this data and convert it into useful information. This paper introduces a possible solution placed in the context of decision-making processes. We show how the decision maker's activity can be traced using two means: mouse tracing (i.e. clicks and eye-tracking (i.e. eye fixations. Then, we discuss a mining approach, based on the log, which extracts a Decision Data Model (DDM. We use the DDM to determine, post-hoc, which decision strategy was employed. The paper concludes with a validation based on a controlled experiment.

  19. Sustainable energy planning decision using the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: choosing energy technology in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Lazim; Najib, Liana

    2016-04-01

    Energy consumption for developing countries is sharply increasing due to the higher economic growth due to industrialisation along with population growth and urbanisation. The increasing demand of energy leads to global energy crisis. Selecting the best energy technology and conservation requires both quantitative and qualitative evaluation criteria. The fuzzy set-based approach is one of the well-known theories to handle fuzziness, uncertainty in decision-making and vagueness of information. This paper proposes a new method of intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IF-AHP) to deal with the uncertainty in decision-making. The new IF-AHP is applied to establish a preference in the sustainable energy planning decision-making problem. Three decision-makers attached with Malaysian government agencies were interviewed to provide linguistic judgement prior to analysing with the new IF-AHP. Nuclear energy has been decided as the best alternative in energy planning which provides the highest weight among all the seven alternatives.

  20. KASAM project for detailed study of the decision making process and basis for decisions in the nuclear waste area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedberg, Bjoern

    2008-01-01

    The idea of the transparency programme is that it should increase the transparency, and thereby the quality, of the decision process and the document basis for the up coming decisions related to the SKB (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company) license applications for a final repository for high level nuclear waste and an encapsulation plant for spent nuclear fuel. KASAM (Swedish National Council for Nuclear Waste) was in charge of the transparency program. The pre-study proposes that KASAM uses the RISCOM-model to support the transparency programme. During the pre-study a number of stakeholders were approached to give their views about the format and contents of the transparency programme and a large number of new issues were raised that could be included in transparency creating activities. Among these issues we got for instance: the role of responsible authorities, on what basis for site selection? or socio-economic issues or critical assumptions in the safety assessment or safety philosophy. Recurrent elements in the transparency programme would then be: -) a clear description of the background for the issue being addressed, -) knowledge building activities, and -) a hearing where the KASAM committee members and staff meet the stakeholders to discuss the issue

  1. The Use of the Evidence from the Behavioral Sciences in the Organizational Decision-Making Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan MÎNJINĂ

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The important managerial decision-making and the development of policies, strategies, internal normative acts and procedures must be solid grounded for efficient achieving of their objectives. To this end, the evidence-based approach uses various types of evidence, a leading role having those scientific, and the critical thinking. The evidence from behavioral sciences is especially important when the decisions objectives involve behavioral elements. They also help to ensure the rationality of any decision-making process. The concern for the use of behavioral sciences research in the decision-making preceded the occurrence of evidence-based approach. The increased knowledge fund of organizations, the access to the best practices and to the relevant scientific research findings represent only the initial stages of the evidence-based approach implementation and functioning. The ensuring of their effective use calls for special skills training among staff, the creation of tools and organizational mechanisms and of a facilitating organizational culture. This paper argues the need to integrate two approaches that promote the decision-making based on scientific evidence, the evidence-based approach and the use of behavioral and social sciences in the decision-making, to potentiate the contribution of the behavioral sciences to the increasing of the decision-making efficiency. The efforts made in this paper had overall objective to prepare and facilitate the use of research evidence provided by behavioral sciences in the organizational decision-making process by presenting the main concepts and knowledge in the field and by proposing an outline procedure specifically developed.

  2. What is on your mind? Using the perceptual cycle model and critical decision method to understand the decision-making process in the cockpit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Katherine L; Stanton, Neville A

    2013-01-01

    Aeronautical decision-making is complex as there is not always a clear coupling between the decision made and decision outcome. As such, there is a call for process-orientated decision research in order to understand why a decision made sense at the time it was made. Schema theory explains how we interact with the world using stored mental representations and forms an integral part of the perceptual cycle model (PCM); proposed here as a way to understand the decision-making process. This paper qualitatively analyses data from the critical decision method (CDM) based on the principles of the PCM. It is demonstrated that the approach can be used to understand a decision-making process and highlights how influential schemata can be at informing decision-making. The reliability of this approach is established, the general applicability is discussed and directions for future work are considered. This paper introduces the PCM, and the associated schema theory, as a framework to structure and explain data collected from the CDM. The reliability of both the method and coding scheme is addressed.

  3. Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahar eAyal

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available A framework is presented to better characterize the role of individual differences in information processing style and their interplay with contextual factors in determining decision making quality. In Experiment 1, we show that individual differences in information processing style are flexible and can be modified by situational factors. Specifically, a situational manipulation that induced an analytical mode of thought improved decision quality. In Experiment 2, we show that this improvement in decision quality is highly contingent on the compatibility between the dominant thinking mode and the nature of the task. That is, encouraging an intuitive mode of thought led to better performance on an intuitive task but hampered performance on an analytical task. The reverse pattern was obtained when an analytical mode of thought was encouraged. We discuss the implications of these results for the assessment of decision making competence, and suggest practical directions to help individuals better adjust their information processing style to the situation at hand and make optimal decisions.

  4. Gender inequalities in the workplace: The effects of organizational structures, processes, practices, and decision makers’ sexism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cailin Susan Stamarski

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Gender inequality in organizations is a complex phenomenon that can be seen in organizational structures, processes, and practices. For women, some of the most harmful gender inequalities are enacted within Human Resources (HR practices. This is because HR practices (i.e., policies, decision-making, and their enactment affect the hiring, training, pay, and promotion of women. We propose a model of gender discrimination in HR that emphasizes the reciprocal nature of gender inequalities within organizations. We suggest that gender discrimination in HR-related decision-making and in the enactment of HR practices stems from gender inequalities in broader organizational structures, processes, and practices. This includes leadership, structure, strategy, culture, organizational climate, as well as HR policies. In addition, organizational decision makers’ levels of sexism can affect their likelihood of making gender biased HR-related decisions and/or behaving in a sexist manner while enacting HR practices. Importantly, institutional discrimination in organizational structures, processes, and practices play a pre-eminent role because not only do they affect HR practices, they also provide a socializing context for organizational decision makers’ levels of hostile and benevolent sexism. Although we portray gender inequality as a self-reinforcing system that can perpetuate discrimination, important levers for reducing discrimination are identified.

  5. Gender inequalities in the workplace: the effects of organizational structures, processes, practices, and decision makers’ sexism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamarski, Cailin S.; Son Hing, Leanne S.

    2015-01-01

    Gender inequality in organizations is a complex phenomenon that can be seen in organizational structures, processes, and practices. For women, some of the most harmful gender inequalities are enacted within human resources (HRs) practices. This is because HR practices (i.e., policies, decision-making, and their enactment) affect the hiring, training, pay, and promotion of women. We propose a model of gender discrimination in HR that emphasizes the reciprocal nature of gender inequalities within organizations. We suggest that gender discrimination in HR-related decision-making and in the enactment of HR practices stems from gender inequalities in broader organizational structures, processes, and practices. This includes leadership, structure, strategy, culture, organizational climate, as well as HR policies. In addition, organizational decision makers’ levels of sexism can affect their likelihood of making gender biased HR-related decisions and/or behaving in a sexist manner while enacting HR practices. Importantly, institutional discrimination in organizational structures, processes, and practices play a pre-eminent role because not only do they affect HR practices, they also provide a socializing context for organizational decision makers’ levels of hostile and benevolent sexism. Although we portray gender inequality as a self-reinforcing system that can perpetuate discrimination, important levers for reducing discrimination are identified. PMID:26441775

  6. Deciziile amenajistice ca procese ierarhizate [Managerial decisions as hierarchical analytic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drăgoi M

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with a step-wise HAP, applied by a group of decision makers, wherein nobody has a dominant position and it is unlikely to come to terms with respect to either the weights of different objectives or expected utilities of different alternatives. One of HAP outcome, namely the consistency index, is computed for each decision maker, for all other decision makers but that one, and for the whole group. Doing so, the group is able to assess to which extent each decision maker alters the group consistency index and a better consistency index could be achieved if the assessment procedure is being resumed by the most influential decision maker in terms of consistency. A case study is used to demonstrate how the step-wise process succeeds in improving the group's consistency index and how the weights of criteria are being changed during the negotiation process. The main contribution of the new approach is the algorithm presented in the figure of the paper where the condition to stop the process might be either a threshold value for the consistency index, or a given number of iterations per group or per person.

  7. Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayal, Shahar; Rusou, Zohar; Zakay, Dan; Hochman, Guy

    2015-01-01

    A framework is presented to better characterize the role of individual differences in information processing style and their interplay with contextual factors in determining decision making quality. In Experiment 1, we show that individual differences in information processing style are flexible and can be modified by situational factors. Specifically, a situational manipulation that induced an analytical mode of thought improved decision quality. In Experiment 2, we show that this improvement in decision quality is highly contingent on the compatibility between the dominant thinking mode and the nature of the task. That is, encouraging an intuitive mode of thought led to better performance on an intuitive task but hampered performance on an analytical task. The reverse pattern was obtained when an analytical mode of thought was encouraged. We discuss the implications of these results for the assessment of decision making competence, and suggest practical directions to help individuals better adjust their information processing style to the situation at hand and make optimal decisions. PMID:26284011

  8. Gender inequalities in the workplace: the effects of organizational structures, processes, practices, and decision makers' sexism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamarski, Cailin S; Son Hing, Leanne S

    2015-01-01

    Gender inequality in organizations is a complex phenomenon that can be seen in organizational structures, processes, and practices. For women, some of the most harmful gender inequalities are enacted within human resources (HRs) practices. This is because HR practices (i.e., policies, decision-making, and their enactment) affect the hiring, training, pay, and promotion of women. We propose a model of gender discrimination in HR that emphasizes the reciprocal nature of gender inequalities within organizations. We suggest that gender discrimination in HR-related decision-making and in the enactment of HR practices stems from gender inequalities in broader organizational structures, processes, and practices. This includes leadership, structure, strategy, culture, organizational climate, as well as HR policies. In addition, organizational decision makers' levels of sexism can affect their likelihood of making gender biased HR-related decisions and/or behaving in a sexist manner while enacting HR practices. Importantly, institutional discrimination in organizational structures, processes, and practices play a pre-eminent role because not only do they affect HR practices, they also provide a socializing context for organizational decision makers' levels of hostile and benevolent sexism. Although we portray gender inequality as a self-reinforcing system that can perpetuate discrimination, important levers for reducing discrimination are identified.

  9. Optimal soil venting design using Bayesian Decision analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kaluarachchi, J. J.; Wijedasa, A. H.

    1994-01-01

    Remediation of hydrocarbon-contaminated sites can be costly and the design process becomes complex in the presence of parameter uncertainty. Classical decision theory related to remediation design requires the parameter uncertainties to be stipulated in terms of statistical estimates based on site observations. In the absence of detailed data on parameter uncertainty, classical decision theory provides little contribution in designing a risk-based optimal design strategy. Bayesian decision th...

  10. Availability Control for Means of Transport in Decisive Semi-Markov Models of Exploitation Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migawa, Klaudiusz

    2012-12-01

    The issues presented in this research paper refer to problems connected with the control process for exploitation implemented in the complex systems of exploitation for technical objects. The article presents the description of the method concerning the control availability for technical objects (means of transport) on the basis of the mathematical model of the exploitation process with the implementation of the decisive processes by semi-Markov. The presented method means focused on the preparing the decisive for the exploitation process for technical objects (semi-Markov model) and after that specifying the best control strategy (optimal strategy) from among possible decisive variants in accordance with the approved criterion (criteria) of the activity evaluation of the system of exploitation for technical objects. In the presented method specifying the optimal strategy for control availability in the technical objects means a choice of a sequence of control decisions made in individual states of modelled exploitation process for which the function being a criterion of evaluation reaches the extreme value. In order to choose the optimal control strategy the implementation of the genetic algorithm was chosen. The opinions were presented on the example of the exploitation process of the means of transport implemented in the real system of the bus municipal transport. The model of the exploitation process for the means of transports was prepared on the basis of the results implemented in the real transport system. The mathematical model of the exploitation process was built taking into consideration the fact that the model of the process constitutes the homogenous semi-Markov process.

  11. Single- versus dual-process models of lexical decision performance: insights from response time distributional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yap, Melvin J; Balota, David A; Cortese, Michael J; Watson, Jason M

    2006-12-01

    This article evaluates 2 competing models that address the decision-making processes mediating word recognition and lexical decision performance: a hybrid 2-stage model of lexical decision performance and a random-walk model. In 2 experiments, nonword type and word frequency were manipulated across 2 contrasts (pseudohomophone-legal nonword and legal-illegal nonword). When nonwords became more wordlike (i.e., BRNTA vs. BRANT vs. BRANE), response latencies to nonwords were slowed and the word frequency effect increased. More important, distributional analyses revealed that the Nonword Type = Word Frequency interaction was modulated by different components of the response time distribution, depending on the specific nonword contrast. A single-process random-walk model was able to account for this particular set of findings more successfully than the hybrid 2-stage model. (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved.

  12. Modeling treatment of ischemic heart disease with partially observable Markov decision processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauskrecht, M; Fraser, H

    1998-01-01

    Diagnosis of a disease and its treatment are not separate, one-shot activities. Instead they are very often dependent and interleaved over time, mostly due to uncertainty about the underlying disease, uncertainty associated with the response of a patient to the treatment and varying cost of different diagnostic (investigative) and treatment procedures. The framework of Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) developed and used in operations research, control theory and artificial intelligence communities is particularly suitable for modeling such a complex decision process. In the paper, we show how the POMDP framework could be used to model and solve the problem of the management of patients with ischemic heart disease, and point out modeling advantages of the framework over standard decision formalisms.

  13. Planning treatment of ischemic heart disease with partially observable Markov decision processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauskrecht, M; Fraser, H

    2000-03-01

    Diagnosis of a disease and its treatment are not separate, one-shot activities. Instead, they are very often dependent and interleaved over time. This is mostly due to uncertainty about the underlying disease, uncertainty associated with the response of a patient to the treatment and varying cost of different diagnostic (investigative) and treatment procedures. The framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) developed and used in the operations research, control theory and artificial intelligence communities is particularly suitable for modeling such a complex decision process. In this paper, we show how the POMDP framework can be used to model and solve the problem of the management of patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD), and demonstrate the modeling advantages of the framework over standard decision formalisms.

  14. Why it is important to promote communication in the decision-making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viktorsson, C.

    2001-01-01

    Opportunity, nightmare, integrity and public confidence are all well-known words for us working in the nuclear area. Dealing with the outside world involves all those elements. However, having an active communication component in the decision making process can reduce the risk of getting into a nightmare situation and at the same time it contributes to gaining public confidence. The nuclear regulatory authority needs confidence to achieve effectiveness. Investing in trust is, therefore, necessary but requires a well-defined strategy and working methods. Moreover, it requires patience, and a culture of openness and relaxed attitude towards media. Finally, my experience tells me that it requires training of staff and motivators that constantly remind us of the importance of promoting communication in the decision-making process. In this paper I am presenting some insights into how SKI (Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate) works when preparing decision and why we are doing it. (author)

  15. Factors influencing the surgical decision for the treatment of degenerative lumbar stenosis in a preference-based shared decision-making process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ho-Joong; Park, Jae-Young; Kang, Kyoung-Tak; Chang, Bong-Soon; Lee, Choon-Ki; Yeom, Jin S

    2015-02-01

    In a preference-based shared decision-making system, several subjective and/or objective factors such as pain severity, degree of disability, and the radiological severity of canal stenosis may influence the final surgical decision for the treatment of lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). However, our understanding of the shared decision-making process and the significance of each factor remain primitive. In the present study, we aimed to investigate which factors influence the surgical decision for the treatment of LSS when using a preference-based, shared decision-making process. We included 555 patients, aged 45-80 years, who used a preference-based shared decision-making process and were treated conservatively or surgically for chronic leg and/or back pain caused by LSS from April 2012 to December 2012. Univariate and multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association of surgical decision making with age, sex, body mass index, symptom duration, radiologic stenotic grade, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), visual analog scale (VAS) scores for back and leg pain, Short Form-36 (SF-36) subscales, and motor weakness. In univariate analysis, the following variables were associated with a higher odds of a surgical decision for LSS: male sex; the VAS score for leg pain; ODI; morphological stenotic grades B, C, and D; motor weakness; and the physical function, physical role, bodily pain, social function, and emotional role of the SF-36 subscales. Multivariate analysis revealed that male sex, ODI, morphological stenotic grades C and D, and motor weakness were significantly associated with a higher possibility of a surgical decision. Motor weakness, male sex, morphological stenotic grade, and the amount of disability are critical factors leading to a surgical decision for LSS when using a preference-based shared decision-making process.

  16. Expectations Do Not Alter Early Sensory Processing during Perceptual Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rungratsameetaweemana, Nuttida; Itthipuripat, Sirawaj; Salazar, Annalisa; Serences, John T

    2018-06-13

    Two factors play important roles in shaping perception: the allocation of selective attention to behaviorally relevant sensory features, and prior expectations about regularities in the environment. Signal detection theory proposes distinct roles of attention and expectation on decision-making such that attention modulates early sensory processing, whereas expectation influences the selection and execution of motor responses. Challenging this classic framework, recent studies suggest that expectations about sensory regularities enhance the encoding and accumulation of sensory evidence during decision-making. However, it is possible, that these findings reflect well documented attentional modulations in visual cortex. Here, we tested this framework in a group of male and female human participants by examining how expectations about stimulus features (orientation and color) and expectations about motor responses impacted electroencephalography (EEG) markers of early sensory processing and the accumulation of sensory evidence during decision-making (the early visual negative potential and the centro-parietal positive potential, respectively). We first demonstrate that these markers are sensitive to changes in the amount of sensory evidence in the display. Then we show, counter to recent findings, that neither marker is modulated by either feature or motor expectations, despite a robust effect of expectations on behavior. Instead, violating expectations about likely sensory features and motor responses impacts posterior alpha and frontal theta oscillations, signals thought to index overall processing time and cognitive conflict. These findings are inconsistent with recent theoretical accounts and suggest instead that expectations primarily influence decisions by modulating post-perceptual stages of information processing. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Expectations about likely features or motor responses play an important role in shaping behavior. Classic theoretical

  17. The impact of information and communication technology on decision making process in the big data era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukić Jelena

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The information necessary to make important decisions is held by many different hierarchical levels in organizations and management needs to find the answer on the question should the decisions be centralized and made by the top management or decentralized and made by the managers and employees of the lower-level units. This question becomes more important in the big data era which is characterized by volume, velocity, and variety of data. The aim of this paper is to analyze whether information and communication technology leads to centralization or decentralization tendencies in organizations and to give answer on the question what are the new challenges of decision making process in the big data era. The conclusion is that information and communication technology provides all organizational level with information that traditionally was used by only few levels, reducing internal coordination costs and enabling organizations to allow decision making across a higher range of hierarchical levels. But final decision of allocation of decision rights depends on knowledge of employees, especially in the big data era, where professionals with new knowledge and skills (known as data scientist became of tremendous importance.

  18. Adult Age Differences in Dual Information Processes: Implications for the Role of Affective and Deliberative Processes in Older Adults' Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Ellen; Hess, Thomas M; Västfjäll, Daniel; Auman, Corinne

    2007-03-01

    Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for judgment and decision theory and important pragmatic implications for older-adult decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age. However, age-related adaptive processes, including motivated selectivity in the use of deliberative capacity, an increased focus on emotional goals, and greater experience, predict better or worse decisions for older adults depending on the situation. The aim of the current review is to examine adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes in order to understand their potential impact on judgments and decisions. We review evidence for the role of these dual processes in judgment and decision making and then review two representative life-span perspectives (based on aging-related changes to cognitive or motivational processes) on the interplay between these processes. We present relevant predictions for older-adult decisions and make note of contradictions and gaps that currently exist in the literature. Finally, we review the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making and how theories and findings regarding dual processes could be applied to decision theory and decision aiding. In particular, we focus on prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) and how prospect theory and theories regarding age differences in information processing can inform one another. © 2007 Association for Psychological Science.

  19. Using manufacturing simulators to evaluate important processing decisions in the furniture and cabinet industries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janice K. Wiedenbeck; Philip A. Araman

    1995-01-01

    We've been telling the wood industry about our process simulation modeling research and development work for several years. We've demonstrated our crosscut-first and rip-first rough mill simulation and animation models. Weâve advised companies on how they could use simulation modeling to help make critically important, pending decisions related to mill layout...

  20. Decision-making of selectable process plans based on petri net with manufacturing constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xiao, Weiyue; Jones, Richard William; Yu, Fei

    2016-01-01

    Intelligent Computer-Aided process planning and decision making for manufacturing systems is a critical subject, that some might argue, has not received the attention it should have from the research community. Despite the progress made in the area of artificial intelligence, there has not been a...

  1. 24 CFR 55.11 - Applicability of subpart C decision making process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Applicability of subpart C decision making process. 55.11 Section 55.11 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT Application of Executive Order on Floodplain Management § 55.11 Applicability of subpart C...

  2. Integrated catchment modelling within a strategic planning and decision making process: Werra case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Jörg; Funke, Markus

    Integrated water resources management (IWRM) redefines conventional water management approaches through a closer cross-linkage between environment and society. The role of public participation and socio-economic considerations becomes more important within the planning and decision making process. In this paper we address aspects of the integration of catchment models into such a process taking the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) as an example. Within a case study situated in the Werra river basin (Central Germany), a systems analytic decision process model was developed. This model uses the semantics of the Unified Modeling Language (UML) activity model. As an example application, the catchment model SWAT and the water quality model RWQM1 were applied to simulate the effect of phosphorus emissions from non-point and point sources on water quality. The decision process model was able to guide the participants of the case study through the interdisciplinary planning and negotiation of actions. Further improvements of the integration framework include tools for quantitative uncertainty analyses, which are crucial for real life application of models within an IWRM decision making toolbox. For the case study, the multi-criteria assessment of actions indicates that the polluter pays principle can be met at larger scales (sub-catchment or river basin) without significantly compromising cost efficiency for the local situation.

  3. Domestic Abuse and Child Contact: Positioning Children in the Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Stephanie

    2011-01-01

    Drawing on a three-year Irish research study, this paper focuses on the decision-making process in child contact, specifically the assessment and management of risk of continuing abuse to young people previously exposed to domestic abuse. A mixed methodological approach involved the completion of survey questionnaires by 219 mothers and the…

  4. Multiple Case Studies of Public Library Systems in New York State: Service Decision-Making Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Xiaoai

    2012-01-01

    This research examined the functions and roles of public library systems in New York State and the services they provide for individual libraries and the public. The dissertation further studied the service decision-making processes at three selected New York State cooperative public library systems. Public library systems have played an important…

  5. Rational misbehavior? Evaluating an integrated dual-process model of criminal decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Gelder, J.L.; de Vries, R.E.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: Test the hypothesis that dispositional self-control and morality relate to criminal decision making via different mental processing modes, a 'hot' affective mode and a 'cool' cognitive one. Methods: Structural equation modeling in two studies under separate samples of undergraduate

  6. Has patients' involvement in the decision-making process changed over time?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brink-Muinen, A. van den; Dulmen, A.M. van; Haes, H.C.J.M. de; Visser, A.P.; Schellevis, F.G.; Bensing, J.M.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To get insight into the changes over time of patients' involvement in the decision-making process, and into the factors contributing to patients' involvement and general practitioners' (GPs) communication related to the Medical Treatment Act (MTA) Issues: information about treatment,

  7. Has patients’ involvement in the decision-making process changed over time?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brink-Muinen, A. van den; Dulmen, S.M. van; Haes, H.C.J.M. de; Visser, A.P.; Schellevis, F.G.; Bensing, J.

    2006-01-01

    Objective To get insight into the changes over time of patients’ involvement in the decision-making process, and into the factors contributing to patients’ involvement and general practitioners’ (GPs) communication related to the Medical Treatment Act (MTA) issues: information about treatment,

  8. Group Decision Making in Higher Education Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberatore, Matthew J.; Nydick, Robert L.

    1997-01-01

    Examines application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to group decision-making and evaluation situations in higher education. The approach is illustrated by (1) evaluation of academic research papers at Villanova University (Pennsylvania), and (2) a suggested adaptation for the more complex problem of institutionwide strategic planning.…

  9. The Impact of Institutional Culture, Policy and Process on Student Engagement in University Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Philip

    2018-01-01

    There is a strong focus on the importance of student engagement in higher education, with increasing attention on how students can participate in their university's decision-making processes. Yet, although the concept appears to be almost universally accepted, it is rarely problematised. This has led some commentators to conclude that student…

  10. The Relationship between University Students' Environmental Identity, Decision-Making Process, and Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freed, Allison

    2018-01-01

    Environmental education scholars have argued for the need to focus on identity as a more predictive factor than attitude of individuals' environmental behavior. We examine individuals' decision-making as a mediating process between identity and behavior. University undergraduates (N = 299) were surveyed, with a select sub-sample interviewed. As…

  11. Strategy Complexity of Finite-Horizon Markov Decision Processes and Simple Stochastic Games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen-Jensen, Rasmus; Chatterjee, Krishnendu

    2012-01-01

    Markov decision processes (MDPs) and simple stochastic games (SSGs) provide a rich mathematical framework to study many important problems related to probabilistic systems. MDPs and SSGs with finite-horizon objectives, where the goal is to maximize the probability to reach a target state in a given...

  12. Occupational Decision-Related Processes for Amotivated Adolescents: Confirmation of a Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jae Yup; McCormick, John

    2011-01-01

    This study developed and (statistically) confirmed a new model of the occupational decision-related processes of adolescents, in terms of the extent to which they may be amotivated about choosing a future occupation. A theoretical framework guided the study. A questionnaire that had previously been administered to an Australian adolescent sample…

  13. Decision-Making Processes in Texas School Districts That Arm Personnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domain, Melinda Willoughby

    2014-01-01

    This qualitative phenomenological study employed narrative inquiry to describe the decision-making processes that Texas school districts followed in enacting firearms policies that allow school employees to carry concealed weapons on district property. Exploration of the lived experiences of eight Texas superintendents in such schools contributed…

  14. Discounted semi-Markov decision processes : linear programming and policy iteration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wessels, J.; van Nunen, J.A.E.E.

    1975-01-01

    For semi-Markov decision processes with discounted rewards we derive the well known results regarding the structure of optimal strategies (nonrandomized, stationary Markov strategies) and the standard algorithms (linear programming, policy iteration). Our analysis is completely based on a primal

  15. Discounted semi-Markov decision processes : linear programming and policy iteration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wessels, J.; van Nunen, J.A.E.E.

    1974-01-01

    For semi-Markov decision processes with discounted rewards we derive the well known results regarding the structure of optimal strategies (nonrandomized, stationary Markov strategies) and the standard algorithms (linear programming, policy iteration). Our analysis is completely based on a primal

  16. An Exploration of How Elementary School Principals Approach the Student Retention Decision Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Hicks, Laura M.

    2012-01-01

    This is a constructivist grounded theory study investigating how elementary principals approach the student retention decision process in their schools. Twenty-two elementary principals participated in the study using a selective or snowball sampling method. Principals worked in one of three districts in a mid-Atlantic state and had experience as…

  17. [The role of epidemiology in the process of decision-making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prost, A

    1997-01-01

    Epidemiology is the method of choice for quantifying and interpreting health phenomena, placing them into perspective to allow trend analysis and projections. It is a tool for analysis, evaluation and forecasting and is thus indispensable in the decision-making process. However, this comprehensive technique has its limitations since health is the result of complex interactions: individual requirements do not always correspond to the overall needs of the community; consideration has to be given to solidarity and the necessity for cost-sharing; and the decision process is strongly influenced by social, cultural, religious and political factors which defy quantification and, on occasion, any rational course of action. Each indicator only takes into account one aspect of the situation and the pertinent indicator should therefore be carefully selected. At the same time, any choice implicitly signifies value judgements-often unnoticed-which need to be balanced and validated in relation to the ethical values of the community in order to be of any assistance to decision-making. Decision-making is a qualitative political process which, although based on the quantitative analysis supplied by epidemiology, cannot be limited to it. Each approach enhance the other, but they should not be confused if freedom to act is to be preserved from being locked into some kind of mechanical process that is unacceptable both to man and to society.

  18. The Relevance of Theories of the Policy Process to Educational Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, R. J.

    1985-01-01

    Two case studies of educational decision making are used to test the utility of some current theories of the policy-formation process; a framework for the application of these theories is proposed; and the merits of applying existing theories before seeking new paradigms are stressed. (MSE)

  19. Factors Affecting Christian Parents' School Choice Decision Processes: A Grounded Theory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prichard, Tami G.; Swezey, James A.

    2016-01-01

    This study identifies factors affecting the decision processes for school choice by Christian parents. Grounded theory design incorporated interview transcripts, field notes, and a reflective journal to analyze themes. Comparative analysis, including open, axial, and selective coding, was used to reduce the coded statements to five code families:…

  20. Evidence of different underlying processes in pattern recall and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, Adam D; Abernethy, Bruce; Farrow, Damian

    2015-01-01

    The visual search characteristics of expert and novice basketball players were recorded during pattern recall and decision-making tasks to determine whether the two tasks shared common visual-perceptual processing strategies. The order in which participants entered the pattern elements in the recall task was also analysed to further examine the nature of the visual-perceptual strategies and the relative emphasis placed upon particular pattern features. The experts demonstrated superior performance across the recall and decision-making tasks [see also Gorman, A. D., Abernethy, B., & Farrow, D. (2012). Classical pattern recall tests and the prospective nature of expert performance. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 65, 1151-1160; Gorman, A. D., Abernethy, B., & Farrow, D. (2013a). Is the relationship between pattern recall and decision-making influenced by anticipatory recall? The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 66, 2219-2236)] but a number of significant differences in the visual search data highlighted disparities in the processing strategies, suggesting that recall skill may utilize different underlying visual-perceptual processes than those required for accurate decision-making performance in the natural setting. Performance on the recall task was characterized by a proximal-to-distal order of entry of the pattern elements with participants tending to enter the players located closest to the ball carrier earlier than those located more distal to the ball carrier. The results provide further evidence of the underlying perceptual processes employed by experts when extracting visual information from complex and dynamic patterns.