WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk-and vulnerability model

  1. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  2. Regional probabilistic nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment by integration of mathematical modelling land GIS-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rigina, O.; Baklanov, A.

    2002-01-01

    The Kola Peninsula, Russian Arctic exceeds all other regions in the world in the number of nuclear reactors. The study was aimed at estimating possible radiation risks to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident in the Kola Peninsula. A new approach based on probabilistic analysis of modelled possible pathways of radionuclide transport and precipitation was developed. For the general population, Finland is at most risk with respect to the Kola NPP, because of: high population density or proximity to the radiation-risk sites and relatively high probability of an airflow trajectory there, and precipitation. After considering the critical group, northern counties in Norway, Finland and Sweden appear to be most vulnerable. (au)

  3. Adolescent mental health and academic functioning: empirical support for contrasting models of risk and vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucier-Greer, Mallory; O'Neal, Catherine W; Arnold, A Laura; Mancini, Jay A; Wickrama, Kandauda K A S

    2014-11-01

    Adolescents in military families contend with normative stressors that are universal and exist across social contexts (minority status, family disruptions, and social isolation) as well as stressors reflective of their military life context (e.g., parental deployment, school transitions, and living outside the United States). This study utilizes a social ecological perspective and a stress process lens to examine the relationship between multiple risk factors and relevant indicators of youth well-being, namely depressive symptoms and academic performance, as well as the mediating role of self-efficacy (N = 1,036). Three risk models were tested: an additive effects model (each risk factor uniquely influences outcomes), a full cumulative effects model (the collection of risk factors influences outcomes), a comparative model (a cumulative effects model exploring the differential effects of normative and military-related risks). This design allowed for the simultaneous examination of multiple risk factors and a comparison of alternative perspectives on measuring risk. Each model was predictive of depressive symptoms and academic performance through persistence; however, each model provides unique findings about the relationship between risk factors and youth outcomes. Discussion is provided pertinent to service providers and researchers on how risk is conceptualized and suggestions for identifying at-risk youth. Reprint & Copyright © 2014 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  4. Uncertainties in smart grids behavior and modeling: What are the risks and vulnerabilities? How to analyze them?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zio, Enrico, E-mail: enrico.zio@ecp.fr [Ecole Centrale Paris - Supelec, Paris (France); Politecnico di Milano, Milano (Italy); Aven, Terje, E-mail: terje.aven@uis.no [University of Stavanger, Stavanger (Norway)

    2011-10-15

    This paper looks into the future world of smart grids from a rather different perspective than usual: that of uncertainties and the related risks and vulnerabilities. An analysis of the foreseen constituents of smart grids and of the technological, operational, economical and policy-driven challenges is carried out to identify and characterize the related uncertainties and associated risks and vulnerabilities. The focus is on the challenges posed to the representation and treatment of uncertainties in the performance assessment of such systems, given their complexity and high-level of integration of novel technologies. A general framework of analysis is proposed. - Highlights: > We have looked into the development and operation of smart grids for power distribution. > We have identified a number of uncertainties, which are expected to play an influential role. > We have provided some guidelines to address these issues, based on probability intervals.

  5. analysis and mapping of climate change risk and vulnerability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia, to determine the degree of climate risk and the relative vulnerability of the districts, to climate .... widely used index for quantifying drought, was extracted from ... semivariogram/Covariance model) in ArcGIS 9.3.

  6. Geography students learn more about risk and vulnerability

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Murambadoro, M

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available As part of the outreach programme the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas (SARVA) was introduced to geography students of the Society of South African Geographers Students. The students were attending their annual conference hosted...

  7. Viewpoint Responding to Risks and Vulnerability Issues Through ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper emerges from a keynote presentation at the School of Education, Department of Teacher Education of the University of South Africa Research Indaba in September 2010. The paper introduces the concepts of risks and vulnerability by means of two examples of what happens when development ignores social ...

  8. Aircraft vulnerability analysis by modelling and simulation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Willers, CJ

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available attributable to misuse of the weapon or to missile performance restrictions. This paper analyses some of the factors affecting aircraft vulnerability and demonstrates a structured analysis of the risk and aircraft vulnerability problem. The aircraft...

  9. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  10. Risk and social vulnerability in the sayings of Pedagogy academics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinora Tereza Zucchetti

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This essay is produced from teaching experience in Higher Education. Its central problematic is the practices of students of a Pedagogy Course of a University located in the metropolitan region of Porto Alegre / RS. The text problematizes the expression of risk and social vulnerability categories in the initial formation of teachers and educators in the field of school and non-school education, considering the dimension of the pedagogical interventions developed. It seeks, ultimately, from the developed reflections, to contribute to the students training as teachers.

  11. The SAVI vulnerability assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winblad, A.E.

    1987-01-01

    The assessment model ''Systematic Analysis of Vulnerability to Intrusion'' (SAVI) presented in this report is a PC-based path analysis model. It can provide estimates of protection system effectiveness (or vulnerability) against a spectrum of outsider threats including collusion with an insider adversary. It calculates one measure of system effectiveness, the probability of interruption P(I), for all potential adversary paths. SAVI can perform both theft and sabotage vulnerability analyses. For theft, the analysis is based on the assumption that adversaries should be interrupted either before they can accomplish removal of the target material from its normal location or removal from the site boundary. For sabotage, the analysis is based on the assumption that adversaries should be interrupted before completion of their sabotage task

  12. Assessing Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Consequences of Damage to Critical Infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suski, N.; Wuest, C.

    2011-01-01

    Since the publication of 'Critical Foundations: Protecting America's Infrastructure,' there has been a keen understanding of the complexity, interdependencies, and shared responsibility required to protect the nation's most critical assets that are essential to our way of life. The original 5 sectors defined in 1997 have grown to 18 Critical Infrastructures and Key Resources (CIKR), which are discussed in the 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) and its supporting sector-specific plans. The NIPP provides the structure for a national program dedicated to enhanced protection and resiliency of the nation's infrastructure. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) provides in-depth, multi-disciplinary assessments of threat, vulnerability, and consequence across all 18 sectors at scales ranging from specific facilities to infrastructures spanning multi-state regions, such as the Oil and Natural Gas (ONG) sector. Like many of the CIKR sectors, the ONG sector is comprised of production, processing, distribution, and storage of highly valuable and potentially dangerous commodities. Furthermore, there are significant interdependencies with other sectors, including transportation, communication, finance, and government. Understanding the potentially devastating consequences and collateral damage resulting from a terrorist attack or natural event is an important element of LLNL's infrastructure security programs. Our work began in the energy sector in the late 1990s and quickly expanded other critical infrastructure sectors. We have performed over 600 physical assessments with a particular emphasis on those sectors that utilize, store, or ship potentially hazardous materials and for whom cyber security is important. The success of our approach is based on building awareness of vulnerabilities and risks and working directly with industry partners to collectively advance infrastructure protection. This approach consists of three phases: The Pre

  13. Aircraft vulnerability analysis by modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willers, Cornelius J.; Willers, Maria S.; de Waal, Alta

    2014-10-01

    Infrared missiles pose a significant threat to civilian and military aviation. ManPADS missiles are especially dangerous in the hands of rogue and undisciplined forces. Yet, not all the launched missiles hit their targets; the miss being either attributable to misuse of the weapon or to missile performance restrictions. This paper analyses some of the factors affecting aircraft vulnerability and demonstrates a structured analysis of the risk and aircraft vulnerability problem. The aircraft-missile engagement is a complex series of events, many of which are only partially understood. Aircraft and missile designers focus on the optimal design and performance of their respective systems, often testing only in a limited set of scenarios. Most missiles react to the contrast intensity, but the variability of the background is rarely considered. Finally, the vulnerability of the aircraft depends jointly on the missile's performance and the doctrine governing the missile's launch. These factors are considered in a holistic investigation. The view direction, altitude, time of day, sun position, latitude/longitude and terrain determine the background against which the aircraft is observed. Especially high gradients in sky radiance occur around the sun and on the horizon. This paper considers uncluttered background scenes (uniform terrain and clear sky) and presents examples of background radiance at all view angles across a sphere around the sensor. A detailed geometrical and spatially distributed radiometric model is used to model the aircraft. This model provides the signature at all possible view angles across the sphere around the aircraft. The signature is determined in absolute terms (no background) and in contrast terms (with background). It is shown that the background significantly affects the contrast signature as observed by the missile sensor. A simplified missile model is constructed by defining the thrust and mass profiles, maximum seeker tracking rate, maximum

  14. Animal models to study plaque vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schapira, K.; Heeneman, S.; Daemen, M. J. A. P.

    2007-01-01

    The need to identify and characterize vulnerable atherosclerotic lesions in humans has lead to the development of various animal models of plaque vulnerability. In this review, current concepts of the vulnerable plaque as it leads to an acute coronary event are described, such as plaque rupture,

  15. Assessing node risk and vulnerability in epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, T.

    2015-01-01

    Which nodes are most vulnerable to an epidemic spreading through a network, and which carry the highest risk of causing a major outbreak if they are the source of the infection? Here we show how these questions can be answered to good approximation using the cavity method. Several curious properties of node vulnerability and risk are explored: some nodes are more vulnerable than others to weaker infections, yet less vulnerable to stronger ones; a node is always more likely to be caught in an outbreak than it is to start one, except when the disease has a deterministic lifetime; the rank order of node risk depends on the details of the distribution of infectious periods.

  16. Critical infrastructures risk and vulnerability assessment in transportation of dangerous goods transportation by road and rail

    CERN Document Server

    Vamanu, Bogdan I; Katina, Polinpapilinho F

    2016-01-01

    This book addresses a key issue in today’s society: the safer transport of dangerous goods, taking into account people, the environment and economics. In particular, it offers a potential approach to identifying the issues, developing the models, providing the methods and recommending the tools to address the risks and vulnerabilities involved. We believe this can only be achieved by assessing those risks in a comprehensive, quantifiable and integrated manner. Examining both rail and road transportation, the book is divided into three sections, covering: the mature and accepted (by both academia and practitioners) methodology of risk assessment; the vulnerability assessment – a novel approach proposed as a vital complement to risk; guidance and support to build the tools that make methods and equations to yield: the Decision Support Systems. Throughout the book, the authors do not endeavor to provide THE solution. Instead, the book offers insightful food for thought for students, researchers, practitioner...

  17. Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S.

    2009-12-01

    many sources of uncertainty in forecasting the areas that volcanic activity will effect and the severity of the effects. Uncertainties arise from: natural variability, inadequate data, biased data, incomplete data, lack of understanding of the processes, limitations to predictive models, ambiguity, and unknown unknowns. The description of volcanic hazards is thus necessarily probabilistic and requires assessment of the attendant uncertainties. Several issues arise from the probabilistic nature of volcanic hazards and the intrinsic uncertainties. Although zonation maps require well-defined boundaries for administrative pragmatism, such boundaries cannot divide areas that are completely safe from those that are unsafe. Levels of danger or safety need to be defined to decide on and justify boundaries through the concepts of vulnerability and risk. More data, better observations, improved models may reduce uncertainties, but can increase uncertainties and may lead to re-appraisal of zone boundaries. Probabilities inferred by statistical techniques are hard to communicate. Expert elicitation is an emerging methodology for risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation. The method has been applied at one major volcanic crisis (Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat), and is being applied in planning for volcanic crises at Vesuvius.

  18. Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopper, Thomas; Meixler, Marcia S

    2016-01-01

    Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time

  19. evaluation of models for assessing groundwater vulnerability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. AMINU

    applied models for groundwater vulnerability assessment mapping. The appraoches .... The overall 'pollution potential' or DRASTIC index is established by applying the formula: DRASTIC Index: ... affected by the structure of the soil surface.

  20. A unified framework for risk and vulnerability analysis covering both safety and security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2007-01-01

    Recently, we have seen several attempts to establish adequate risk and vulnerability analyses tools and related management frameworks dealing not only with accidental events but also security problems. These attempts have been based on different analysis approaches and using alternative building blocks. In this paper, we discuss some of these and show how a unified framework for such analyses and management tasks can be developed. The framework is based on the use of probability as a measure of uncertainty, as seen through the eyes of the assessor, and define risk as the combination of possible consequences and related uncertainties. Risk and vulnerability characterizations are introduced incorporating ideas both from vulnerability analyses literature as well as from the risk classification scheme introduced by Renn and Klinke

  1. Proposing a Universal Framework for Resilience: Optimizing Risk and Combating Human Vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Arunima

    2017-04-01

    strengthen and optimize the decision making skill and platform for a better sustainable society. The resilience framework provides a cross-sector and multi-level analysis to tackle the vulnerabilities which can be caused to essential utilities like power, water, transport and various machineries that are essential for human sustainability. The direction of resilience framework focuses on prevention of damage and disruption of disaster, mitigate the loss caused to human society and provide the best response for disaster resilience. Thus, the basic pillars which are important for the implementation of resilience is proper governance framework and transparency which takes into account various cost and risk analysis. Thus a common and universal framework for resilience is the main requirement for mass accessibility. The aim of resilience framework focuses on universal adaptability, coherence and validation. A mixed method analysis has been undertaken in this research paper which focuses on the following issues: • Legal, Institutional and community framework for integrating resilience framework of global north and global south. • Spatial as well as statistical analysis to structuralize disaster risk and resilient framework for disaster management. • Early warning system and emergency response in a comparative scale to analyse the various models of risk and resilience framework implemented in USA, China, Nepal and India for proposing an integrated resilience strategy.

  2. Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taback, I.

    1979-01-01

    The discussion of vulnerability begins with a description of some of the electrical characteristics of fibers before definiting how vulnerability calculations are done. The vulnerability results secured to date are presented. The discussion touches on post exposure vulnerability. After a description of some shock hazard work now underway, the discussion leads into a description of the planned effort and some preliminary conclusions are presented.

  3. Information risk and security modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zivic, Predrag

    2005-03-01

    This research paper presentation will feature current frameworks to addressing risk and security modeling and metrics. The paper will analyze technical level risk and security metrics of Common Criteria/ISO15408, Centre for Internet Security guidelines, NSA configuration guidelines and metrics used at this level. Information IT operational standards view on security metrics such as GMITS/ISO13335, ITIL/ITMS and architectural guidelines such as ISO7498-2 will be explained. Business process level standards such as ISO17799, COSO and CobiT will be presented with their control approach to security metrics. Top level, the maturity standards such as SSE-CMM/ISO21827, NSA Infosec Assessment and CobiT will be explored and reviewed. For each defined level of security metrics the research presentation will explore the appropriate usage of these standards. The paper will discuss standards approaches to conducting the risk and security metrics. The research findings will demonstrate the need for common baseline for both risk and security metrics. This paper will show the relation between the attribute based common baseline and corporate assets and controls for risk and security metrics. IT will be shown that such approach spans over all mentioned standards. The proposed approach 3D visual presentation and development of the Information Security Model will be analyzed and postulated. Presentation will clearly demonstrate the benefits of proposed attributes based approach and defined risk and security space for modeling and measuring.

  4. Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution using Optimized DRASTIC model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mogaji, Kehinde Anthony; Lim, Hwee San; Abdullar, Khiruddin

    2014-01-01

    The prediction accuracy of the conventional DRASTIC model (CDM) algorithm for groundwater vulnerability assessment is severely limited by the inherent subjectivity and uncertainty in the integration of data obtained from various sources. This study attempts to overcome these problems by exploring the potential of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique as a decision support model to optimize the CDM algorithm. The AHP technique was utilized to compute the normalized weights for the seven parameters of the CDM to generate an optimized DRASTIC model (ODM) algorithm. The DRASTIC parameters integrated with the ODM algorithm predicted which among the study areas is more likely to become contaminated as a result of activities at or near the land surface potential. Five vulnerability zones, namely: no vulnerable(NV), very low vulnerable (VLV), low vulnerable (LV), moderate vulnerable (MV) and high vulnerable (HV) were identified based on the vulnerability index values estimated with the ODM algorithm. Results show that more than 50% of the area belongs to both moderate and high vulnerable zones on the account of the spatial analysis of the produced ODM-based groundwater vulnerability prediction map (GVPM).The prediction accuracy of the ODM-based – GVPM with the groundwater pH and manganese (Mn) concentrations established correlation factors (CRs) result of 90 % and 86 % compared to the CRs result of 62 % and 50 % obtained for the validation accuracy of the CDM – based GVPM. The comparative results, indicated that the ODM-based produced GVPM is more reliable than the CDM – based produced GVPM in the study area. The study established the efficacy of AHP as a spatial decision support technique in enhancing environmental decision making with particular reference to future groundwater vulnerability assessment

  5. Measurement of the influences relating to anthropization on the temporal evolution of the gravitational risks and the vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebourg, T.; Llop, R.; Provitolo, D.; Allignol, F.; Zerathe, S.

    2009-04-01

    The objective of this paper is to show the impact of the instrumentation on an urban area on the principle of prevention of the landslides risk and thus to contribute to decrease the vulnerability for an urban long-term future development. We show that the analyze by instrumentation of triggered factors which characterize the risk (by the quantification of the evolution in time of the mechanical properties versus weathered processes) suggest that it exists a relation between "susceptibility of landslides" and urban development The evolution of the stakes during time is at the same time, factor of evolution of the susceptibility and triggered factor of the vulnerability evolution of urban areas. The scientific goal relates to the urban systems vulnerability and resilience modelling versus landslides processes for the assistance to the risks prevention. Indeed, the installation of an effective risks prevention policy is based on a good evaluation of the intensity, the period of return of the phenomena and their zone of expansion, but also on an identification of the sectors exposed to the risks, their vulnerability and their resilience. The strategy of prevention of the risks generally relates to the construction of fortifications to protect the society but it can also be founded on the resilience concept. This other approach is not opposed to the risk, but proposes to reduce the impacts. The anthroposysteme concept of makes it possible to take into accounts the determining role played by the human society in the space system evolution; natural and social systems associated on a given territory. The study of a space system passes then by the identification of components of the physical world (natural) and the living world (social), these two components forming integral part of the Society. To be concluded, this paper and study applies to the Mediterranean coastline anthroposystemes (northern bank) where urban growth, saturation of the littorals, constructions in

  6. Vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Issa, Sahar; van der Molen, Irna; Stel, Nora

    2015-01-01

    This chapter reviews the literature on vulnerability. Together with Chapter 3, that offers a literature review specifically focused on resilience, it lays the conceptual foundations for the empirical chapters in this edited volume. Vulnerability symbolizes the susceptibility of a certain system to

  7. Where Lies the Risk? An Ecological Approach to Understanding Child Mental Health Risk and Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Atilola, Olayinka

    2014-01-01

    Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa...

  8. Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Celia A; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; Mackinnon, James L

    2014-04-05

    Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change.

  9. Aquifer Vulnerability to Arsenic contamination in the Conterminous United States: Health Risks and Economic Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twarakavi, N. C.; Kaluarachchi, J. J.

    2004-12-01

    Arsenic is historically known be toxic to human health. Drinking water contaminated with unsafe levels of arsenic may cause cancer. The toxicity of arsenic is suggested by a MCLG of zero and a low MCL of 10 µg/L, that has been a subject of constant scrutiny. The US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), based on the recommendations of the National Academy of Sciences revised the MCL from 1974 value of 50 µg/L to 10 µg/L. The decision was based on a national-level analysis of arsenic concentration data collected by the National Analysis of Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA). Another factor that makes arsenic in drinking water a major issue is the widespread occurrence and a variety of sources. Arsenic occurs naturally in mineral deposits and is also contributed through anthropogenic sources. A methodology using the ordinal logistic regression (LR) method is proposed to predict the probability of occurrence of arsenic in shallow ground waters of the conterminous United States (CONUS) subject to a set of influencing variables. The analysis considered the maximum contaminant level (MCL) options of 3, 5, 10, 20, and 50 µg/L as threshold values to estimate the probabilities of arsenic occurrence in ranges defined by a given MCL and a detection limit of 1 µg/L. The fit between the observed and predicted probability of occurrence was around 83% for all MCL options. The estimated probabilities were used to estimate the median background concentration of arsenic for different aquifer types in the CONUS. The shallow ground water of the western US is more vulnerable to arsenic contamination than the eastern US. Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and California in particular are hotspots for arsenic contamination. The model results were extended for estimating the health risks and costs posed by arsenic occurrence in the ground water of the United States. The risk assessment showed that counties in southern California, Arizona, Florida, Washington States and a few others scattered

  10. Climate Vulnerability Assessments : An Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation in Albania’s Power Sector

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2009-01-01

    Energy security is a key concern in Albania, which relies on hydropower for about 90 percent of its electricity production. While renewable energy resources like hydropower play a fundamental role in moving the world towards a low-carbon economy, they are also vulnerable to climatic conditions. Climate variability already affects Albania's energy production to a considerable extent, and cl...

  11. Hazard risk and vulnerability assessment : Regional District of Nanaimo : final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-06-01

    A Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (HRVA) is a mandated regulatory requirement in British Columbia that requires local authorities to prepare emergency plans that reflect the local authority's assessment of the relative risk of occurrence and the potential impact on people and property of the hazards, emergencies or disasters that could affect the jurisdictional area for which the local authority has responsibility. This report constituted an HRVA for the Regional District of Nanaimo, British Columbia. It presented the study scope and methodology and provided an overview of the Regional District of Nanaimo. This included information on the setting, demographics, and economy. Next, it discussed social vulnerability; critical response and recovery facilities; and critical infrastructure such as water, energy, telecommunications and transportation. A summary of the Regional District of Nanaimo's response capabilities that were considered when assessing the Regional District's overall risk to the hazards was also presented. Response capabilities were discussed with reference to fire and rescue; police; ambulance; and search and rescue. Emergency support and preparedness organizations were also identified. These included the Emergency Coordination Centre, environmental services, emergency social services, amateur radio and health authorities. Last, 33 hazards that could affect the Regional District of Nanaimo were identified and discussed. The study identified the following hazards as high risk: flooding; forest fires and wildland urban interface fires; and human diseases and pandemic. It was recommended that the advancement of business continuity planning in the Regional District of Nanaimo would help to reduce the impact of a possible human disease and pandemic risk outbreak affecting the population. 75 refs., 25 figs., 14 tabs., 2 appendices

  12. Determining shallow aquifer vulnerability by the DRASTIC model ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Shallow aquifer vulnerability has been assessed using GIS-based DRASTIC model by incorporating the major geological and hydrogeological factors that affect and control the groundwater contamination in a granitic terrain. It provides a relative indication of aquifer vulnerability to the contamination. Further, it has been ...

  13. Competing Risks and Multistate Models with R

    CERN Document Server

    Beyersmann, Jan; Schumacher, Martin

    2012-01-01

    This book covers competing risks and multistate models, sometimes summarized as event history analysis. These models generalize the analysis of time to a single event (survival analysis) to analysing the timing of distinct terminal events (competing risks) and possible intermediate events (multistate models). Both R and multistate methods are promoted with a focus on nonparametric methods.

  14. Modelling homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bizimana, Jean Pierre; Kienberger, Stefan; Hagenlocher, Michael; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel

    2016-03-31

    Despite the decline in malaria incidence due to intense interventions, potentials for malaria transmission persist in Rwanda. To eradicate malaria in Rwanda, strategies need to expand beyond approaches that focus solely on malaria epidemiology and also consider the socioeconomic, demographic and biological/disease-related factors that determine the vulnerability of potentially exposed populations. This paper analyses current levels of social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda by integrating a set of weighted vulnerability indicators. The paper uses regionalisation techniques as a spatially explicit approach for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria. This overcomes the limitations of administrative boundaries for modelling the trans-boundary social vulnerability to malaria. The utilised approach revealed high levels of social vulnerability to malaria in the highland areas of Rwanda, as well as in remote areas where populations are more susceptible. Susceptibility may be due to the populations' lacking the capacity to anticipate mosquito bites, or lacking resilience to cope with or recover from malaria infection. By highlighting the most influential indicators of social vulnerability to malaria, the applied approach indicates which vulnerability domains need to be addressed, and where appropriate interventions are most required. Interventions to improve the socioeconomic development in highly vulnerable areas could prove highly effective, and provide sustainable outcomes against malaria in Rwanda. This would ultimately increase the resilience of the population and their capacity to better anticipate, cope with, and recover from possible infection.

  15. South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas: Understanding the Social & Environmental Implications of Global Change. 2nd edition

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mambo, Julia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The success of the first edition of the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas (SARVA), both as a publication and at COP17 (17th meeting of the ‘Conference of the Parties’ of the international treaty known as the United Nations Framework...

  16. Northeast and Midwest regional species and habitats at greatest risk and most vulnerable to climate impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Hilberg, Laura; Janowiak, Maria; Swanton, C.O.

    2016-01-01

    The objectives of this Chapter are to describe climate change vulnerability, it’s components, the range of assessment methods being implemented regionally, and examples of training resources and tools. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments (CCVAs) have already been conducted for numerous Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need and their dependent 5 habitats across the Northeast and Midwest. This chapter provides a synthesis of different assessment frameworks, information on the locations (e.g., States) where vulnerability assessments were conducted, lists of individual species and habitats with their respective vulnerability rankings, and a comparison of how vulnerability rankings were determined among studies.

  17. Modelling farm vulnerability to flooding: A step toward vulnerability mitigation policies appraisal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brémond, P.; Abrami, G.; Blanc, C.; Grelot, F.

    2009-04-01

    flood. In the case of farm activities, vulnerability mitigation consists in implementing measures which can be: physical (equipment or electric power system elevation), organizational (emergency or recovery plan) or financial (insurance). These measures aim at decreasing the total damage incurred by farmers in case of flooding. For instance, if equipment is elevated, it will not suffer direct damage such as degradation. As a consequence, equipment will be available to continue production or recovery tasks, thus, avoiding indirect damage such as delays, indebtedness… The effects of these policies on farms, in particular vulnerability mitigation cannot be appraised using current methodologies mainly because they do not consider farm as a whole and focus on direct damage at the land plot scale (loss of yield). Moreover, since vulnerability mitigation policies are quite recent, few examples of implementation exist and no feedback experience can be processed. Meanwhile, decision makers and financial actors require more justification of the efficiency of public fund by economic appraisal of the projects. On the Rhône River, decision makers asked for an economic evaluation of the program of farm vulnerability mitigation they plan to implement. This implies to identify the effects of the measures to mitigate farm vulnerability, and to classify them by comparing their efficacy (avoided damage) and their cost of implementation. In this presentation, we propose and discuss a conceptual model of vulnerability at the farm scale. The modelling, in Unified Modelling Language, enabled to represent the ties between spatial, organizational and temporal dimensions, which are central to understanding of farm vulnerability and resilience to flooding. Through this modelling, we encompass three goals: To improve the comprehension of farm vulnerability and create a framework that allow discussion with experts of different disciplines as well as with local farmers; To identify data which

  18. Modelling social vulnerability in sub-Saharan West Africa using a geographical information system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olanrewaju Lawal

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent times, disasters and risk management have gained significant attention, especially with increasing awareness of the risks and increasing impact of natural and other hazards especially in the developing world. Vulnerability, the potential for loss of life or property from disaster, has biophysical or social dimensions. Social vulnerability relates to societal attributes which has negative impacts on disaster outcomes. This study sought to develop a spatially explicit index of social vulnerability, thus addressing the dearth of research in this area in sub-Saharan Africa. Nineteen variables were identified covering various aspects. Descriptive analysis of these variables revealed high heterogeneity across the South West region of Nigeria for both the state and the local government areas (LGAs. Feature identification using correlation analysis identified six important variables. Factor analysis identified two dimensions, namely accessibility and socioeconomic conditions, from this subset. A social vulnerability index (SoVI showed that Ondo and Ekiti have more vulnerable LGAs than other states in the region. About 50% of the LGAs in Osun and Ogun have a relatively low social vulnerability. Distribution of the SoVI shows that there are great differences within states as well as across regions. Scores of population density, disability and poverty have a high margin of error in relation to mean state scores. The study showed that with a geographical information system there are opportunities to model social vulnerability and monitor its evolution and dynamics across the continent.

  19. Where Lies the Risk? An Ecological Approach to Understanding Child Mental Health Risk and Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olayinka Atilola

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an ecological point of view, we identified widespread family poverty, poor availability and uptake of childcare resources, inadequate community and institutional childcare systems, and inadequate framework for social protection for vulnerable children as among the risk and vulnerability factors for CAMH in the region. Others are poor workplace policy/practice that does not support work-family life balance, poor legislative framework for child protection, and some harmful traditional practices. We conclude that an ecological approach shows that child mental-health risks are diverse and cut across different layers of the care environment. The approach also provides a broad and holistic template from which appropriate CAMH policy direction in sub-Saharan Africa can be understood.

  20. Where lies the risk? An ecological approach to understanding child mental health risk and vulnerabilities in sub-saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atilola, Olayinka

    2014-01-01

    Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an ecological point of view, we identified widespread family poverty, poor availability and uptake of childcare resources, inadequate community and institutional childcare systems, and inadequate framework for social protection for vulnerable children as among the risk and vulnerability factors for CAMH in the region. Others are poor workplace policy/practice that does not support work-family life balance, poor legislative framework for child protection, and some harmful traditional practices. We conclude that an ecological approach shows that child mental-health risks are diverse and cut across different layers of the care environment. The approach also provides a broad and holistic template from which appropriate CAMH policy direction in sub-Saharan Africa can be understood.

  1. Where Lies the Risk? An Ecological Approach to Understanding Child Mental Health Risk and Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atilola, Olayinka

    2014-01-01

    Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an ecological point of view, we identified widespread family poverty, poor availability and uptake of childcare resources, inadequate community and institutional childcare systems, and inadequate framework for social protection for vulnerable children as among the risk and vulnerability factors for CAMH in the region. Others are poor workplace policy/practice that does not support work-family life balance, poor legislative framework for child protection, and some harmful traditional practices. We conclude that an ecological approach shows that child mental-health risks are diverse and cut across different layers of the care environment. The approach also provides a broad and holistic template from which appropriate CAMH policy direction in sub-Saharan Africa can be understood. PMID:24834431

  2. Recognizing Risk and Vulnerability in Research Ethics: Imagining the "What Ifs?"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, Elizabeth; Friedland, Judith

    2017-04-01

    Research ethics committees (RECs) may misunderstand the vulnerability of participants, given their distance from the field. What RECs identify as the vulnerabilities that were not adequately recognized in protocols and how they attempt to protect the perceived vulnerability of participants and mitigate risks were examined using the response letters sent to researchers by three university-based RECs. Using a critical qualitative method informed by feminist ethics, we identified an overarching theme of recognizing and responding to cascading vulnerabilities and four subthemes: identifying vulnerable groups, recognizing potentially risky research, imagining the "what ifs," and mitigating perceived risks. An ethics approach that is up-close, as opposed to distant, is needed to foster closer relationships among participants, researchers, and RECs and to understand participant vulnerability and strength better.

  3. Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

  4. Bridging the Gap Between Policy and Research Infrastructure: Risk and Vulnerability Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugo, Wim; Rogers, Annabelle

    2017-04-01

    IPCC for translating climate science into policy - (IPCC, 2007), or less formally - such as the move to develop Essential Biodiversity Variables, loosely designed to support Aichi Targets (Pereira et al., 2013) or the UN Sustainable Development Goals (UN, 2016). In the paper, we examine a number of these frameworks, map them onto a generic framework for the translation of research output into policy and decision support, and discuss an example from the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas in detail. References Craig R. Fox & Sim B. Sitkin (2015). Bridging the divide between behavioral science & policy, Behavioral Science & Policy, Spring 2015, https://behavioralpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/1-1/Bridging-the-divide-between-behavioral-science-and-policy.pdf IPCC (2007). Conceptual framework for the identification and assessment of key vulnerabilities, https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch19s19-1-2.html Pereira et al. (2013). Essential Biodiversity Variables, Science 18 Jan 2013: Vol. 339, Issue 6117, pp. 277-278 DOI: 10.1126/science.1229931 Preston, B.L., Mustelin, J. & Maloney, M.C. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2015) 20: 467. doi:10.1007/s11027-013-9503-x Reid WV (2004) Bridging the Science-Policy Divide. PLoS Biol 2(2): e27. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0020027 UN (2016). Sustainable Development Goals, http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/

  5. Grid Transmission Expansion Planning Model Based on Grid Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Quan; Wang, Xi; Li, Ting; Zhang, Quanming; Zhang, Hongli; Li, Huaqiang

    2018-03-01

    Based on grid vulnerability and uniformity theory, proposed global network structure and state vulnerability factor model used to measure different grid models. established a multi-objective power grid planning model which considering the global power network vulnerability, economy and grid security constraint. Using improved chaos crossover and mutation genetic algorithm to optimize the optimal plan. For the problem of multi-objective optimization, dimension is not uniform, the weight is not easy given. Using principal component analysis (PCA) method to comprehensive assessment of the population every generation, make the results more objective and credible assessment. the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are validated by simulation results of Garver-6 bus system and Garver-18 bus.

  6. Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping using GIS, modeling and a fuzzy logic tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, R C M; Rotunno Filho, O C; Mansur, W J; Nobre, M M M; Cosenza, C A N

    2007-12-07

    A groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping assessment, based on a source-pathway-receptor approach, is presented for an urban coastal aquifer in northeastern Brazil. A modified version of the DRASTIC methodology was used to map the intrinsic and specific groundwater vulnerability of a 292 km(2) study area. A fuzzy hierarchy methodology was adopted to evaluate the potential contaminant source index, including diffuse and point sources. Numerical modeling was performed for delineation of well capture zones, using MODFLOW and MODPATH. The integration of these elements provided the mechanism to assess groundwater pollution risks and identify areas that must be prioritized in terms of groundwater monitoring and restriction on use. A groundwater quality index based on nitrate and chloride concentrations was calculated, which had a positive correlation with the specific vulnerability index.

  7. A modeling ontology for integrating vulnerabilities into security requirements conceptual foundations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elahi, G.; Yu, E.; Zannone, N.; Laender, A.H.F.; Castano, S.; Dayal, U.; Casati, F.; Palazzo Moreira de Oliveira, J.

    2009-01-01

    Vulnerabilities are weaknesses in the requirements, design, and implementation, which attackers exploit to compromise the system. This paper proposes a vulnerability-centric modeling ontology, which aims to integrate empirical knowledge of vulnerabilities into the system development process. In

  8. Modelling the elements of country vulnerability to earthquake disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asef, M R

    2008-09-01

    Earthquakes have probably been the most deadly form of natural disaster in the past century. Diversity of earthquake specifications in terms of magnitude, intensity and frequency at the semicontinental scale has initiated various kinds of disasters at a regional scale. Additionally, diverse characteristics of countries in terms of population size, disaster preparedness, economic strength and building construction development often causes an earthquake of a certain characteristic to have different impacts on the affected region. This research focuses on the appropriate criteria for identifying the severity of major earthquake disasters based on some key observed symptoms. Accordingly, the article presents a methodology for identification and relative quantification of severity of earthquake disasters. This has led to an earthquake disaster vulnerability model at the country scale. Data analysis based on this model suggested a quantitative, comparative and meaningful interpretation of the vulnerability of concerned countries, and successfully explained which countries are more vulnerable to major disasters.

  9. A metric-based assessment of flood risk and vulnerability of rural communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeloye, A. J.; Mwale, F. D.; Dulanya, Z.

    2015-06-01

    In response to the increasing frequency and economic damages of natural disasters globally, disaster risk management has evolved to incorporate risk assessments that are multi-dimensional, integrated and metric-based. This is to support knowledge-based decision making and hence sustainable risk reduction. In Malawi and most of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), however, flood risk studies remain focussed on understanding causation, impacts, perceptions and coping and adaptation measures. Using the IPCC Framework, this study has quantified and profiled risk to flooding of rural, subsistent communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi. Flood risk was obtained by integrating hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard was characterised in terms of flood depth and inundation area obtained through hydraulic modelling in the valley with Lisflood-FP, while the vulnerability was indexed through analysis of exposure, susceptibility and capacity that were linked to social, economic, environmental and physical perspectives. Data on these were collected through structured interviews of the communities. The implementation of the entire analysis within GIS enabled the visualisation of spatial variability in flood risk in the valley. The results show predominantly medium levels in hazardousness, vulnerability and risk. The vulnerability is dominated by a high to very high susceptibility. Economic and physical capacities tend to be predominantly low but social capacity is significantly high, resulting in overall medium levels of capacity-induced vulnerability. Exposure manifests as medium. The vulnerability and risk showed marginal spatial variability. The paper concludes with recommendations on how these outcomes could inform policy interventions in the Valley.

  10. Perceptions of Risk and Vulnerability Following Exposure to a Major Natural Disaster: The Calgary Flood of 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner, Alexa; Árvai, Joseph

    2018-03-01

    Many studies have examined the general public's flood risk perceptions in the aftermath of local and regional flooding. However, relatively few studies have focused on large-scale events that affect tens of thousands of people within an urban center. Similarly, in spite of previous research on flood risks, unresolved questions persist regarding the variables that might influence perceptions of risk and vulnerability, along with management preferences. In light of the opportunities presented by these knowledge gaps, the research reported here examined public perceptions of flood risk and vulnerability, and management preferences, within the city of Calgary in the aftermath of extensive flooding in 2013. Our findings, which come from an online survey of residents, reveal that direct experience with flooding is not a differentiating factor for risk perceptions when comparing evacuees with nonevacuees who might all experience future risks. However, we do find that judgments about vulnerability-as a function of how people perceive physical distance-do differ according to one's evacuation experience. Our results also indicate that concern about climate change is an important predictor of flood risk perceptions, as is trust in government risk managers. In terms of mitigation preferences, our results reveal differences in support for large infrastructure projects based on whether respondents feel they might actually benefit from them. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Comprehensive Assessment and Zonation of Drought Risk and Vulnerability in Kerman Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholamreza Khademipour

    2018-01-01

    Conclusion: The measures to reduce the vulnerability in social, economic, ecologic, and health areas not only lower the risk in the drought-affected areas, but also prevent secondary damages like immigration, marginalization, and social, cultural problems in large and capital cities of the province. 

  12. Analysing risk and vulnerability of South African settlements: Attempts, explorations and reflections

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Faling, W

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This is a presentation paper on the development of multi-criteria indicators for integrated assessment of socio-economic vulnerability at a regional level. An indication is provided of some first steps in interpreting projections for environmental...

  13. Vulnerable Derivatives and Good Deal Bounds: A Structural Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murgoci, Agatha

    2013-01-01

    We price vulnerable derivatives -- i.e. derivatives where the counterparty may default. These are basically the derivatives traded on the over-the-counter (OTC) markets. Default is modeled in a structural framework. The technique employed for pricing is good deal bounds (GDBs). The method imposes...

  14. Assessing intrinsic and specific vulnerability models ability to indicate groundwater vulnerability to groups of similar pesticides: A comparative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Steven; Dixon, Barnali; Griffin, Dale W.

    2018-01-01

    With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.

  15. Adaptation to Climate Change in Risk and Vulnerability Analysis on a Municipal Level, a basis for further work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mossberg Sonnek, Karin; Lindberg, Anna; Lindgren, Johan

    2007-12-01

    The aim of Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (RVA) at local authority level in Sweden is to increase the capacity of local authorities to handle crises and to reduce vulnerability in the community. RVA processes could be an appropriate starting-point for discussions on how the community is influenced by climate change and how its effects could be reduced using various adjustment measures. In the report we present four methods: ROSA, MVA, IBERO and the Car Dun AB method. These have all been developed to support Swedish local authority RVA processes. We also present five international frameworks that have been developed by the organisations UNDP, USAID, UKCIP, C-CIARN and CSIRO to help decision-makers and stakeholders to adapt to climate change. Together, these descriptions form a foundation for continuing the work being done within the project Climatools, in which tools are being produced to be used by local authorities in adapting to climate change. In the report, we also discuss the concepts 'risk', 'vulnerability' and 'adaptation' and how analysis of adaptation to climate change has changed in recent years

  16. Analyzing Risks and Vulnerabilities of Various Computer Systems and Undergoing Exploitation using Embedded Devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branch, Drew Alexander

    2014-01-01

    Security is one of the most if not the most important areas today. After the several attacks on the United States, security everywhere has heightened from airports to communication among the military branches legionnaires. With advanced persistent threats (APTs) on the rise following Stuxnet, government branches and agencies are required, more than ever, to follow several standards, policies and procedures to reduce the likelihood of a breach. Attack vectors today are very advanced and are going to continue to get more and more advanced as security controls advance. This creates a need for networks and systems to be in an updated, patched and secured state in a launch control system environment. Attacks on critical systems are becoming more and more relevant and frequent. Nation states are hacking into critical networks that might control electrical power grids or water dams as well as carrying out advanced persistent threat (APTs) attacks on government entities. NASA, as an organization, must protect its self from attacks from all different types of attackers with different motives. Although the International Space Station was created, there is still competition between the different space programs. With that in mind, NASA might get attacked and breached for various reasons such as espionage or sabotage. My project will provide a way for NASA to complete an in house penetration test which includes: asset discovery, vulnerability scans, exploit vulnerabilities and also provide forensic information to harden systems. Completing penetration testing is a part of the compliance requirements of the Federal Information Security Act (FISMA) and NASA NPR 2810.1 and related NASA Handbooks. This project is to demonstrate how in house penetration testing can be conducted that will satisfy all of the compliance requirements of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), as outlined in FISMA. By the end of this project, I hope to have carried out the tasks stated

  17. Comparisons of complex network based models and real train flow model to analyze Chinese railway vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouyang, Min; Zhao, Lijing; Hong, Liu; Pan, Zhezhe

    2014-01-01

    Recently numerous studies have applied complex network based models to study the performance and vulnerability of infrastructure systems under various types of attacks and hazards. But how effective are these models to capture their real performance response is still a question worthy of research. Taking the Chinese railway system as an example, this paper selects three typical complex network based models, including purely topological model (PTM), purely shortest path model (PSPM), and weight (link length) based shortest path model (WBSPM), to analyze railway accessibility and flow-based vulnerability and compare their results with those from the real train flow model (RTFM). The results show that the WBSPM can produce the train routines with 83% stations and 77% railway links identical to the real routines and can approach the RTFM the best for railway vulnerability under both single and multiple component failures. The correlation coefficient for accessibility vulnerability from WBSPM and RTFM under single station failures is 0.96 while it is 0.92 for flow-based vulnerability; under multiple station failures, where each station has the same failure probability fp, the WBSPM can produce almost identical vulnerability results with those from the RTFM under almost all failures scenarios when fp is larger than 0.62 for accessibility vulnerability and 0.86 for flow-based vulnerability

  18. Hierarchical statistical modeling of xylem vulnerability to cavitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogle, Kiona; Barber, Jarrett J; Willson, Cynthia; Thompson, Brenda

    2009-01-01

    Cavitation of xylem elements diminishes the water transport capacity of plants, and quantifying xylem vulnerability to cavitation is important to understanding plant function. Current approaches to analyzing hydraulic conductivity (K) data to infer vulnerability to cavitation suffer from problems such as the use of potentially unrealistic vulnerability curves, difficulty interpreting parameters in these curves, a statistical framework that ignores sampling design, and an overly simplistic view of uncertainty. This study illustrates how two common curves (exponential-sigmoid and Weibull) can be reparameterized in terms of meaningful parameters: maximum conductivity (k(sat)), water potential (-P) at which percentage loss of conductivity (PLC) =X% (P(X)), and the slope of the PLC curve at P(X) (S(X)), a 'sensitivity' index. We provide a hierarchical Bayesian method for fitting the reparameterized curves to K(H) data. We illustrate the method using data for roots and stems of two populations of Juniperus scopulorum and test for differences in k(sat), P(X), and S(X) between different groups. Two important results emerge from this study. First, the Weibull model is preferred because it produces biologically realistic estimates of PLC near P = 0 MPa. Second, stochastic embolisms contribute an important source of uncertainty that should be included in such analyses.

  19. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  20. Community Resilience: Increasing Public Understanding of Risk and Vulnerability to Natural Hazards through Informal Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salna, E.

    2017-12-01

    The Extreme Events Institute's (EEI) International Hurricane Research Center (IHRC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, as a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, is dedicated to make South Florida, Ready, Responsive and Resilient. IHRC with funding from the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) has developed several museum exhibits and events. This includes the hands-on FIU Wall of Wind exhibit for the National Building Museum in Washington, DC, the Frost Science Museum in Miami, Florida, and the Museum of Discovery and Science (MODS) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The exhibit teaches the public about hurricane wind engineering research, enhanced building codes, and the importance of protecting your home's windows and doors with code-approved shutters. In addition, IHRC and MODS facilitate Eye of the Storm, a free-of-charge, community event with interactive hurricane science, and preparedness activities, including the entertaining Owlie Skywarn live theater show and live air cannon missile impact demonstrations. This annual event includes many local, state and federal partners, including NOAA and NWS. The IHRC also developed the FIU Wall of Wind Mitigation Challenge. As the next generation of engineers to address natural hazards and extreme weather, this STEM education event features a competition between high school teams to develop innovative wind mitigation concepts and real-life human safety and property protection solutions. IHRC and MODS are also developing a new exhibit of a Hazard/Risk Equation that will "come to life," through virtual reality (VR) technology in a state-of-the art 7D theater. The exhibit will provide a better public understanding of how changes in exposures and vulnerabilities will determine whether a community experiences an emergency, disaster or catastrophe. It will raise public consciousness and drive home the point that communities need not passively accept natural hazard risks. Ultimately, if we raise

  1. Riparian erosion vulnerability model based on environmental features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botero-Acosta, Alejandra; Chu, Maria L; Guzman, Jorge A; Starks, Patrick J; Moriasi, Daniel N

    2017-12-01

    Riparian erosion is one of the major causes of sediment and contaminant load to streams, degradation of riparian wildlife habitats, and land loss hazards. Land and soil management practices are implemented as conservation and restoration measures to mitigate the environmental problems brought about by riparian erosion. This, however, requires the identification of vulnerable areas to soil erosion. Because of the complex interactions between the different mechanisms that govern soil erosion and the inherent uncertainties involved in quantifying these processes, assessing erosion vulnerability at the watershed scale is challenging. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to identify areas along the riparian zone that are susceptible to erosion. The methodology was developed by integrating the physically-based watershed model MIKE-SHE, to simulate water movement, and a habitat suitability model, MaxEnt, to quantify the probability of presences of elevation changes (i.e., erosion) across the watershed. The presences of elevation changes were estimated based on two LiDAR-based elevation datasets taken in 2009 and 2012. The changes in elevation were grouped into four categories: low (0.5 - 0.7 m), medium (0.7 - 1.0 m), high (1.0 - 1.7 m) and very high (1.7 - 5.9 m), considering each category as a studied "species". The categories' locations were then used as "species location" map in MaxEnt. The environmental features used as constraints to the presence of erosion were land cover, soil, stream power index, overland flow, lateral inflow, and discharge. The modeling framework was evaluated in the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental watershed in southcentral Oklahoma. Results showed that the most vulnerable areas for erosion were located at the upper riparian zones of the Cobb and Lake sub-watersheds. The main waterways of these sub-watersheds were also found to be prone to streambank erosion. Approximatively 80% of the riparian zone (streambank

  2. Risk and vulnerability: youngsters and drugs Risco e vulnerabilidade: jovens e drogas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Míriam Lucila Lima

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available Seven hundred and twenty two youngsters assisted by public social institutions and programs form the universe studied here. The main objective of this research is to understand the vulnerability factors which put the youngsters at risk to the drug addiction. The methodology has included the quantitative and the qualitative approaches. The data collection was carried out by means of a questionnaire with multiple-choise and open-ended questions. The multiple choise questions brought quantitative data related to the profile and the use of drugs. The openended ones, still to be analyzed, might bring contexts, practices, motivation and meanings related to the use of drugs. This text will present the results related to the quantitative data, i.e., social demographic information about all the researched universe; patterns and circumstances of the use drugs by those who have reported it; the reasons which have led them to experiment the drug; the existing association between the use of drugs and their related problems; the use of injectable drugs and receptivity concerning the possibility of treatment for chemical dependency. The conclusions point out that a correct evaluation about the extension of the problem will allow more effective preventive and therapeutic programs.O trabalho ora apresentado é parte de pesquisa mais ampla sobre o uso de drogas ilícitas na cidade de Londrina. O universo aqui estudado é constituído por 722 jovens atendidos por instituições e programas sociais públicos. O objetivo principal da pesquisa é o conhecimento dos fatores de vulnerabilidade que colocam os jovens em risco de drogadicção. A metodologia incluiu as abordagens quantitativa e qualitativa. A coleta de dados foi realizada através da aplicação de um questionário com questões fechadas e abertas. As questões fechadas levantaram dados quantitativos relacionados ao perfil e ao uso de drogas. As questões abertas, ainda em processo de análise, dever

  3. Software vulnerability: Definition, modelling, and practical evaluation for E-mail: transfer software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Mitsuhiro

    2006-01-01

    This paper proposes a method of assessing software vulnerability quantitatively. By expanding the concept of the IPO (input-program-output) model, we first define the software vulnerability and construct a stochastic model. Then we evaluate the software vulnerability of the sendmail system by analyzing the actual security-hole data, which were collected from its release note. Also we show the relationship between the estimated software reliability and vulnerability of the analyzed system

  4. A web-based dissemination platform for climate-change risk and vulnerability

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Sibolla, B

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available . The rapid advance in computer technology has led to heavy reliance on digital predictive modelling and digital data dissemination which have both been leveraged in this project. We present data sets of predicted climate-change variables, over selected urban...

  5. A "weight of evidence" approach for the integration of environmental "triad" data to assess ecological risk and biological vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagnino, Alessandro; Sforzini, Susanna; Dondero, Francesco; Fenoglio, Stefano; Bona, Elisa; Jensen, John; Viarengo, Aldo

    2008-07-01

    A new Expert Decision Support System (EDSS) that can integrate Triad data for assessing environmental risk and biological vulnerability at contaminated sites has been developed. Starting with ecosystem relevance, the EDSS assigns different weights to the results obtained from Triad disciplines. The following parameters have been employed: 1) chemical soil analyses (revealing the presence of potentially dangerous substances), 2) ecotoxicological bioassays (utilizing classical endpoints such as survival and reproduction rates), 3) biomarkers (showing sublethal pollutant effects), and 4) ecological parameters (assessing changes in community structure and functions). For each Triad discipline, the EDSS compares the data obtained at the studied field sites with reference values and calculates different 0-1 indexes (e.g., Chemical Risk Index, Ecotoxicological Risk Index, and Ecological Risk Index). The EDSS output consists of 3 indexes: 1) Environmental Risk index (EnvRI), quantifying the levels of biological damage at population-community level, 2) Biological Vulnerability Index (BVI), assessing the potential threats to biological equilibriums, and 3) Genotoxicity Index (GTI), screening genotoxicity effects. The EDSS has been applied in the integration of a battery of Triad data obtained during the European Union-funded Life Intervention in the Fraschetta Area (LINFA) project, which has been carried out in order to estimate the potential risk from soils of a highly anthropized area (Alessandria, Italy) mainly impacted by deposition of atmospheric pollutants. Results obtained during 4 seasonal sampling campaigns (2004-2005) show maximum values of EnvRI in sites A and B (characterized by industrial releases) and lower levels in site D (affected by vehicular traffic emissions). All 3 potentially polluted sites have shown high levels of BVI and GTI, suggesting a general change from reference conditions (site C).

  6. Assessment of bullet effectiveness based on a human vulnerability model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Susu; Xu, C; Wen, Y; Li, G; Zhou, J

    2017-12-25

    Penetrating wounds from explosively propelled fragments and bullets are the most common causes of combat injury. There is a requirement to assess the potential effectiveness of bullets penetrating human tissues in order to optimise preventive measures and wound trauma management. An advanced voxel model based on the Chinese Visible Human data was built. A digital human vulnerability model was established in combination with wound reconstruction and vulnerability assessment rules, in which wound penetration profiles were obtained by recreating the penetration of projectiles into ballistic gelatin. An effectiveness evaluation method of bullet penetration using the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) was developed and solved using the Monte Carlo sampling method. The effectiveness of rifle bullets was demonstrated to increase with increasing velocity in the range of 300-700 m/s. When imparting the same energy, the effectiveness of the 5.56 mm bullet was higher than the 7.62 mm bullet in this model. The superimposition of simulant penetration profiles produced from ballistic gelatin simulant has been used to predict wound tracts in damaged tissues. The authors recognise that determining clinical effectiveness based on the AIS scores alone without verification of outcome by review of clinical hospital records means that this technique should be seen more as a manner of comparing the effectiveness of bullets than an injury prediction model. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  7. "Everybody Knows Your Business"/"Todo Mundo Se Da Cuenta": Immigrant Adults' Construction of Privacy, Risk, and Vulnerability in Online Platforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noguerón-Liu, Silvia

    2017-01-01

    This article examines immigrant adults' understandings of privacy, risk, and vulnerability in digital literacy practices that involve visual media. Although the benefits of digital media production have been explored with immigrant youths, the perspectives of adults remain unexplored. Informed by critical and transnational perspectives to digital…

  8. Index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models using hydrogeological settings: A critical evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Prashant; Bansod, Baban K.S.; Debnath, Sanjit K.; Thakur, Praveen Kumar; Ghanshyam, C.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater vulnerability maps are useful for decision making in land use planning and water resource management. This paper reviews the various groundwater vulnerability assessment models developed across the world. Each model has been evaluated in terms of its pros and cons and the environmental conditions of its application. The paper further discusses the validation techniques used for the generated vulnerability maps by various models. Implicit challenges associated with the development of the groundwater vulnerability assessment models have also been identified with scientific considerations to the parameter relations and their selections. - Highlights: • Various index-based groundwater vulnerability assessment models have been discussed. • A comparative analysis of the models and its applicability in different hydrogeological settings has been discussed. • Research problems of underlying vulnerability assessment models are also reported in this review paper

  9. Index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models using hydrogeological settings: A critical evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Prashant, E-mail: prashantkumar@csio.res.in [CSIR-Central Scientific Instruments Organisation, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Bansod, Baban K.S.; Debnath, Sanjit K. [CSIR-Central Scientific Instruments Organisation, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Thakur, Praveen Kumar [Indian Institute of Remote Sensing (ISRO), Dehradun 248001 (India); Ghanshyam, C. [CSIR-Central Scientific Instruments Organisation, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030 (India)

    2015-02-15

    Groundwater vulnerability maps are useful for decision making in land use planning and water resource management. This paper reviews the various groundwater vulnerability assessment models developed across the world. Each model has been evaluated in terms of its pros and cons and the environmental conditions of its application. The paper further discusses the validation techniques used for the generated vulnerability maps by various models. Implicit challenges associated with the development of the groundwater vulnerability assessment models have also been identified with scientific considerations to the parameter relations and their selections. - Highlights: • Various index-based groundwater vulnerability assessment models have been discussed. • A comparative analysis of the models and its applicability in different hydrogeological settings has been discussed. • Research problems of underlying vulnerability assessment models are also reported in this review paper.

  10. Modelling self-assessed vulnerability to HIV and its associated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Globally, individuals' self-assessment of vulnerability to HIV infection is important to maintain safer sexual behaviour and reduce risky behaviours. However, determinants of self-perceived risk of HIV infection are not well documented and differ. We assessed the level of self-perceived vulnerability to HIV ...

  11. Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

    2018-05-01

    Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Wildland fire risk and social vulnerability in the Southeastern United States: An exploratory spatial data analysis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassandra Johnson Gaither; Neelam C. Poudyal; Scott Goodrick; J. M. Bowker; Sparkle L Malone; Jianbang. Gan

    2011-01-01

    The southeastern U.S. is one of the more wildland fire prone areas of the country and also contains some of the poorest or most socially vulnerable rural communities. Our project addresses wildland fire risk in this part of the U.S and its intersection with social vulnerability. We examine spatial association between high wildland fire prone areas which also rank high...

  13. Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model – a case study for Bucharest, Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Armaș

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model. Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA. This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

  14. Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model) - a case study for Bucharest, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armaş, I.; Gavriş, A.

    2013-06-01

    In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

  15. Environmental vulnerability assessment using Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahoo, Satiprasad; Dhar, Anirban; Kar, Amlanjyoti

    2016-01-01

    Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.

  16. Environmental vulnerability assessment using Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process based model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahoo, Satiprasad [School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Dhar, Anirban, E-mail: anirban.dhar@gmail.com [Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Kar, Amlanjyoti [Central Ground Water Board, Bhujal Bhawan, Faridabad, Haryana (India)

    2016-01-15

    Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.

  17. Assessing flash flood vulnerability using a multi-vulnerability approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karagiorgos Konstantinos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of flood risk assessment, while the understanding of hazard and exposure has significantly improved over the last years, knowledge on vulnerability remains one of the challenges. Current approaches in vulnerability research are characterised by a division between social scientists and natural scientists. In order to close this gap, we present an approach that combines information on physical and social vulnerability in order to merge information on the susceptibility of elements at risk and society. With respect to physical vulnerability, the study is based on local-scale vulnerability models using nonlinear regression approaches. Modified Weibull distributions were fit to the data in order to represent the relationship between process magnitude and degree of loss. With respect to social vulnerability we conducted a door-to-door survey which resulted in particular insights on flood risk awareness and resilience strategies of exposed communities. In general, both physical and social vulnerability were low in comparison with other European studies, which may result from (a specific building regulations in the four Mediterranean test sites as well as general design principles leading to low structural susceptibility of elements at risk, and (b relatively low social vulnerability of citizens exposed. As a result it is shown that a combination of different perspectives of vulnerability will lead to a better understanding of exposure and capacities in flood risk management.

  18. Model based on diffuse logic for the construction of indicators of urban vulnerability in natural phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia L, Carlos Eduardo; Hurtado G, Jorge Eduardo

    2003-01-01

    Upon considering the vulnerability of a urban system in a holistic way and taking into account some natural, technological and social factors, a model based upon a system of fuzzy logic, allowing to estimate the vulnerability of any system under natural phenomena potentially catastrophic is proposed. The model incorporates quantitative and qualitative variables in a dynamic system, in which variations in one of them have a positive or negative impact over the rest. An urban system model and an indicator model to determine the vulnerability due to natural phenomena were designed

  19. Socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards - proposal for an indicator-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsvig, U.; McLean, A.; Vangelsten, B. V.; Kalsnes, B.; Ciurean, R. L.; Argyroudis, S.; Winter, M.; Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O. C.; Fotopoulou, S.; Pitilakis, K.; Baills, A.; Malet, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    Vulnerability assessment, with respect to natural hazards, is a complex process that must consider multiple dimensions of vulnerability, including both physical and social factors. Physical vulnerability refers to conditions of physical assets, and may be modeled by the intensity and magnitude of the hazard, the degree of physical protection provided by the natural and built environment, and the physical robustness of the exposed elements. Social vulnerability refers to the underlying factors leading to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand impacts from the natural hazards. Social vulnerability models can be used in combination with physical vulnerability models to estimate both direct losses, i.e. losses that occur during and immediately after the impact, as well as indirect losses, i.e. long-term effects of the event. Direct impact of a landslide typically includes casualties and damages to buildings and infrastructure while indirect losses may e.g. include business closures or limitations in public services. The direct losses are often assessed using physical vulnerability indicators (e.g. construction material, height of buildings), while indirect losses are mainly assessed using social indicators (e.g. economical resources, demographic conditions). Within the EC-FP7 SafeLand research project, an indicator-based method was proposed to assess relative socio-economic vulnerability to landslides. The indicators represent the underlying factors which influence a community's ability to prepare for, deal with, and recover from the damage associated with landslides. The proposed model includes indicators representing demographic, economic and social characteristics as well as indicators representing the degree of preparedness and recovery capacity. Although the model focuses primarily on the indirect losses, it could easily be extended to include more physical indicators which account for the direct losses. Each indicator is individually

  20. Vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate change in China: Results based on Grey forecasting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Bing; Liang, Xiao-Jie; Zhang, Hao; Wang, Lu; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2014-01-01

    This paper analyzes the long-term relationships between hydropower generation and climate factors (precipitation), hydropower generation capacity (installed capacity of hydropower station) to quantify the vulnerability of renewable energy production in China for the case of hydropower generation. Furthermore, this study applies Grey forecasting model to forecast precipitation in different provinces, and then sets up different scenarios for precipitation based on the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios and results from PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate projections for Impacts Studies) model. The most important result found in this research is the increasing hydropower vulnerability of the poorest regions and the main hydropower generation provinces of China to climate change. Other main empirical results reveal that the impacts of climate change on the supply of hydropower generation in China will be noteworthy for the society. Different scenarios have different effects on hydropower generation, of which A2 scenario (pessimistic, high emission) has the largest. Meanwhile, the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation of every province are distinctly different, of which the Southwest part has the higher vulnerability than the average level while the central part lower. - Highlights: • The hydropower vulnerability will be enlarged with the rapid increase of hydropower capacity. • Modeling the vulnerability of hydropower in different scenarios and different provinces. • The increasing hydropower vulnerability of the poorest regions to climate change. • The increasing hydropower vulnerability of the main hydropower generation provinces. • Rainfall pattern caused by climate change would be the reason for the increasing vulnerability

  1. E-learning stakeholders information security vulnerability model

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd Alwi, Najwa Hayaati

    2012-01-01

    The motivation to conduct this research has come from awareness that the Internet exposes the e-learning environment to information security threats and vulnerabilities. Information security management as practised as a top down approach in many organisations tend to detach of people’s responsibility in ensuring the security of e-learning. Literature has pointed out that people’s behaviour required to be addressed to control the information security threats. This research proposes an ISM huma...

  2. Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Region: Interactions with Spatial Population and Land Cover Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, R. S.; Levy, M.; Baptista, S.; Adamo, S.

    2010-12-01

    Vulnerability to climate variability and change will depend on dynamic interactions between different aspects of climate, land-use change, and socioeconomic trends. Measurements and projections of these changes are difficult at the local scale but necessary for effective planning. New data sources and methods make it possible to assess land-use and socioeconomic changes that may affect future patterns of climate vulnerability. In this paper we report on new time series data sets that reveal trends in the spatial patterns of climate vulnerability in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Region. Specifically, we examine spatial time series data for human population over the period 1990-2000, time series data on land use and land cover over 2000-2009, and infant mortality rates as a proxy for poverty for 2000-2008. We compare the spatial trends for these measures to the distribution of climate-related natural disaster risk hotspots (cyclones, floods, landslides, and droughts) in terms of frequency, mortality, and economic losses. We use these data to identify areas where climate vulnerability appears to be increasing and where it may be decreasing. Regions where trends and patterns are especially worrisome include coastal areas of Guatemala and Honduras.

  3. Pricing Vulnerable Options with Market Prices of Common Jump Risks under Regime-Switching Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miao Han

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the valuation of vulnerable European options considering the market prices of common systematic jump risks under regime-switching jump-diffusion models. The way of regime-switching Esscher transform is adopted to identify an equivalent martingale measure for pricing vulnerable European options. Explicit analytical pricing formulae for vulnerable European options are derived by risk-neutral pricing theory. For comparison, the other two cases are also considered separately. The first case considers all jump risks as unsystematic risks while the second one assumes all jumps risks to be systematic risks. Numerical examples for the valuation of vulnerable European options are provided to illustrate our results and indicate the influence of the market prices of jump risks on the valuation of vulnerable European options.

  4. Determining shallow aquifer vulnerability by the DRASTIC model and hydrochemistry in granitic terrain, southern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, N. C.; Adike, S.; Singh, V. S.; Ahmed, S.; Jayakumar, K. V.

    2017-08-01

    Shallow aquifer vulnerability has been assessed using GIS-based DRASTIC model by incorporating the major geological and hydrogeological factors that affect and control the groundwater contamination in a granitic terrain. It provides a relative indication of aquifer vulnerability to the contamination. Further, it has been cross-verified with hydrochemical signatures such as total dissolved solids (TDS), Cl-, HCO3-, SO4^{2-} and Cl-/HCO3- molar ratios. The results show four zones of aquifer vulnerability (i.e., negligible, low, moderate and high) based on the variation of DRASTIC Vulnerability Index (DVI) between 39 and 132. About 57% area in the central part is found moderately and highly contaminated due to the 80 functional tannery disposals and is more prone to groundwater aquifer vulnerability. The high range values of TDS (2304-39,100 mg/l); Na+(239- 6,046 mg/l) and Cl- (532-13,652 mg/l) are well correlated with the observed high vulnerable zones. The values of Cl-/HCO3- (molar ratios: 1.4-106.8) in the high vulnerable zone obviously indicate deterioration of the aquifer due to contamination. Further cumulative probability distributions of these parameters indicate several threshold values which are able to demarcate the diverse vulnerability zones in granitic terrain.

  5. Sensitivity Analysis of DRASTIC Model in Vulnerability Assessment of Shahrood Alluvial Aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shadi Abolhasan Almasi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater vulnerability assessment is typically accomplished as a management tool to protect groundwater resources. In this research, the DRASTIC model which is an empirical one used for evaluating the potential of an aquifer for pollution was employed to evaluate the vulnerability of Shahrood alluvial aquifer. Moreover, the sensitivity of the model paramneters was assessed to identify the ones with greatest effect on vulnerability. The model layers including depth to groundwater table level, recharge, aquifer media, topography, impact of unsaturated zone, and hydraulic conductivity were prepared and classified in the ArcGIS software based on analyses of both the available data and the layer of surface soil texture using Aster satellite images. Once the vulnerability index was calculated, the sensitivity map of Shahroud aquifer vulnerability was analyzed using the two parameter removal and single parameter sensitivity methods. These were further verified by textural analysis of soil samples from different parts of the region. The layers with appropriate weights were overlaid and the DRASTIC index of the aquifer was estimated at 28 to 148. The highest vulnerability was detected in the northern margins and southwestern parts of the aquifer while other parts were characterized by medium to low vulnerability. The low nitrogen concentration observed in the farm areas and its rise to 45 mg/l in the northern stretches of the aquifer bear witness to the accuracy of the zoning rendered by the DRASTIC model. Based on the vulnerability map of Sharoud aquifer, it was found that 1.6% of the aquifer’s area has a very high vulnerability or potential for pollution followed by 10%, 28.8%, and 18.9% of the area were identified as having high, medium and low potentials for pollution, respecytively. The remaining (i.e., 40.5% was found to have no risk of pollution.

  6. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability by applying the modified DRASTIC model in Beihai City, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; Ma, Chuanming

    2018-05-01

    This study assesses vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Beihai City, China, as a support of groundwater resource protection. The assessment result not only objectively reflects potential possibility of groundwater to contamination but also provides scientific basis for the planning and utilization of groundwater resources. This study optimizes the parameters consisting of natural factors and human factors upon the DRASTIC model and modifies the ratings of these parameters, based on the local environmental conditions for the study area. And a weight of each parameter is assigned by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reduce the subjectivity of humans to vulnerability assessment. The resulting scientific ratings and weights of modified DRASTIC model (AHP-DRASTLE model) contribute to obtain the more realistic assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contaminant. The comparison analysis validates the accuracy and rationality of the AHP-DRASTLE model and shows it suits the particularity of the study area. The new assessment method (AHP-DRASTLE model) can provide a guide for other scholars to assess the vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. The final vulnerability map for the AHP-DRASTLE model shows four classes: highest (2%), high (29%), low (55%), and lowest (14%). The vulnerability map serves as a guide for decision makers on groundwater resource protection and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

  7. Crop insurance: Risks and models of insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Čolović Vladimir

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The issue of crop protection is very important because of a variety of risks that could cause difficult consequences. One type of risk protection is insurance. The author in the paper states various models of insurance in some EU countries and the systems of subsidizing of insurance premiums by state. The author also gives a picture of crop insurance in the U.S., noting that in this country pays great attention to this matter. As for crop insurance in Serbia, it is not at a high level. The main problem with crop insurance is not only the risks but also the way of protection through insurance. The basic question that arises not only in the EU is the question is who will insure and protect crops. There are three possibilities: insurance companies under state control, insurance companies that are public-private partnerships or private insurance companies on a purely commercial basis.

  8. Assessing Agricultural Drought Vulnerability by a VSD Model: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiansheng Wu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Drought vulnerability of agriculture is significant to economic development and sustainable food production. In this paper, we proposed a framework to evaluate the regional agricultural-eco environment in the face of drought caused by climate change. Based on a vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD model, we built up a comprehensive system to evaluate the agricultural drought vulnerability of Yunnan Province in China. The model highlights the human-land relationship by considering both natural conditions and human activities. Twelve indicators were generated to construct three components of the model: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. During the construction of the VSD model, the entropy and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP comprehensive analysis method were adopted to generate the weights and to compute the composite index for each section. Furthermore, the factor analysis method was used to determine the dominant factors of different cities and the main indicators driving the system. The results indicated a spatial pattern that the vulnerability value was high on the eastern and western sides, but low in the middle of Yunnan Province. Most of the vulnerable regions were concentrated in remote areas. Indicators such as population density, irrigation level, annual average precipitation, cultivation land ratio, and difficulty of water supply were the main driving factors. This means that there is a deep connection between agricultural drought vulnerability and urbanization. The evaluation system developed during this research will provide guidance for drought mitigation in regions of complex terrain.

  9. Adaptive pathways and coupled infrastructure: seven centuries of adaptation to water risk and the production of vulnerability in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth Tellman

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure development is central to the processes that abate and produce vulnerabilities in cities. Urban actors, especially those with power and authority, perceive and interpret vulnerability and decide when and how to adapt. When city managers use infrastructure to reduce urban risk in the complex, interconnected city system, new fragilities are introduced because of inherent system feedbacks. We trace the interactions between system dynamics and decision-making processes over 700 years of Mexico City's adaptations to water risks, focusing on the decision cycles of public infrastructure providers (in this case, government authorities. We bring together two lenses in examining this history: robustness-vulnerability trade-offs to explain the evolution of systemic risk dynamics mediated by feedback control, and adaptation pathways to focus on the evolution of decision cycles that motivate significant infrastructure investments. Drawing from historical accounts, archeological evidence, and original research on water, engineering, and cultural history, we examine adaptation pathways of humans settlement, water supply, and flood risk. Mexico City's history reveals insights that expand the theory of coupled infrastructure and lessons salient to contemporary urban risk management: (1 adapting by spatially externalizing risks can backfire: as cities expand, such risks become endogenous; (2 over time, adaptation pathways initiated to address specific risks may begin to intersect, creating complex trade-offs in risk management; and (3 city authorities are agents of risk production: even in the face of new exogenous risks (climate change, acknowledging and managing risks produced endogenously may prove more adaptive. History demonstrates that the very best solutions today may present critical challenges for tomorrow, and that collectively people have far more agency in and influence over the complex systems we live in than is often acknowledged.

  10. Responses to Novelty and Vulnerability to Cocaine Addiction: Contribution of a Multi-Symptomatic Animal Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belin, David; Deroche-Gamonet, Véronique

    2012-01-01

    Epidemiological studies have revealed striking associations between several distinct behavioral/personality traits and drug addiction, with a large emphasis on the sensation-seeking trait and the associated impulsive dimension of personality. However, in human studies, it is difficult to identify whether personality/behavioral traits actually contribute to increased vulnerability to drug addiction or reflect psychobiological adaptations to chronic drug exposure. Here we show how animal models, including the first multi-symptomatic model of addiction in the rat, have contributed to a better understanding of the relationships between different subdimensions of the sensation-seeking trait and different stages of the development of cocaine addiction, from vulnerability to initiation of cocaine self-administration to the transition to compulsive drug intake. We argue that sensation seeking predicts vulnerability to use cocaine, whereas novelty seeking, akin to high impulsivity, predicts instead vulnerability to shift from controlled to compulsive cocaine use, that is, addiction. PMID:23125204

  11. An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansson, Jonas; Hassel, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    Technical infrastructures of the society are becoming more and more interconnected and interdependent, i.e. the function of an infrastructure influences the function of other infrastructures. Disturbances in one infrastructure therefore often traverse to other dependent infrastructures and possibly even back to the infrastructure where the failure originated. It is becoming increasingly important to take these interdependencies into account when assessing the vulnerability of technical infrastructures. In the present paper, an approach for modelling interdependent technical infrastructures is proposed. The modelling approach considers structural properties, as employed in graph theory, as well as functional properties to increase its fidelity and usefulness. By modelling a fictional electrified railway network that consists of five systems and interdependencies between the systems, it is shown how the model can be employed in a vulnerability analysis. The model aims to capture both functional and geographic interdependencies. It is concluded that the proposed modelling approach is promising and suitable in the context of vulnerability analyses of interdependent systems.

  12. Locating Spatial Variation in the Association Between Wildland Fire Risk and Social Vulnerability Across Six Southern States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poudyal, Neelam C.; Johnson-Gaither, Cassandra; Goodrick, Scott; Bowker, J. M.; Gan, Jianbang

    2012-03-01

    Wildland fire in the South commands considerable attention, given the expanding wildland urban interface (WUI) across the region. Much of this growth is propelled by higher income retirees and others desiring natural amenity residential settings. However, population growth in the WUI increases the likelihood of wildfire fire ignition caused by people, as humans account for 93% of all wildfires fires in the South. Coexisting with newly arrived, affluent WUI populations are working class, poor or otherwise socially vulnerable populations. The latter groups typically experience greater losses from environmental disasters such as wildfire because lower income residents are less likely to have established mitigation programs in place to help absorb loss. We use geographically weighted regression to examine spatial variation in the association between social vulnerability (SOVUL) and wildfire risk. In doing so, we identify "hot spots" or geographical clusters where SOVUL varies positively with wildfire risk across six Southern states—Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. These clusters may or may not be located in the WUI. These hot spots are most prevalent in South Carolina and Florida. Identification of these population clusters can aid wildfire managers in deciding which communities to prioritize for mitigation programming.

  13. Assessing Vulnerability of Lake Erie Landscapes to Soil Erosion: Modelled and Measured Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joosse, P.; Laamrani, A.; Feisthauer, N.; Li, S.

    2017-12-01

    Loss of soil from agricultural landscapes to Lake Erie via water erosion is a key transport mechanism for phosphorus bound to soil particles. Agriculture is the dominant land use in the Canadian side of the Lake Erie basin with approximately 75% of the 2.3 million hectares under crop or livestock production. The variable geography and diversity of agricultural production systems and management practices makes estimating risk of soil erosion from agricultural landscapes in the Canadian Lake Erie basin challenging. Risk of soil erosion depends on a combination of factors including the extent to which soil remains bare, which differs with crop type and management. Two different approaches of estimating the vulnerability of landscapes to soil erosion will be compared among Soil Landscapes of Canada in the Lake Erie basin: a modelling approach incorporating farm census and soil survey data, represented by the 2011 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agri-Environmental Indicator for Soil Erosion Risk; and, a measured approach using remotely sensed data that quantifies the magnitude of bare and covered soil across the basin. Results from both approaches will be compared by scaling the national level (1:1 million) Soil Erosion Risk Indicator and the remotely sensed data (30x30 m resolution) to the quaternary watershed level.

  14. Modeling the Connectedness Between best Management Practices and Vulnerability Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anandhi, A.; Bailey, N.; Thomas, M.; Bartnick, B.

    2015-12-01

    The overall goal of this study is to better understand the connectedness between Best management practices (BMPs) and vulnerability assessments (VA) in a changing landuse. Developing this connectedness will help understand key vulnerabilities and improve adaptive capacity important for ecosystem sustainability. BMPs are practical management practices or systems designed and installed in watersheds to provide a wide range of effects to protect or restore the physical, chemical, and biological condition of waterbodies (e.g. changing hydrology; improving vegetative habitat; mitigate adverse environmental change). VAs can be defined as "the degree to which the system is susceptible to and is unable to cope with adverse effects of change" and are often characterized as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. There are many variables and factors used in calculating the impact of BMPs and VAs. The event mean concentration or load (e.g. nutrient, sediment,) associated with the specific landuse is an important variable. There is much data that predicts the loads associated with the major landuses (urban, agricultural). Loads greatly vary with region; rainfall characteristics (e.g. rainfall intensity, rainfall frequency); soil characteristics (e.g. soil type, hydrologic soil groups); hydrologic characteristics (e.g. runoff potential). A concern also exists that possibly all of the variables associated with changes in an individual land use have not been identified and distinguished for their impact on land use. For example, the loads associated with a high density residential with much green space may be more similar to medium density than loads associated with high rise apartment buildings. Other factors may include age of construction, % of families with children, % of families with pets, level of transiency, and construction activity The objective of our study is to develop an initial framework using multiple variables and factors to represent the

  15. Assessment of aquifer intrinsic vulnerability using GIS based Drastic model in Sialkot area, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Saqib Khan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The intrinsic vulnerability of a shallow aquifer of Sialkot is assessed using DRASTIC index method. The information required as input for all seven parameters, i.e. depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, the impact of vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity data were collected from literature surveys and on field surveys. A cumulative vulnerability map was developed using the indices obtained as a result of DRASTIC methodology. The values obtained from DRASTIC model for the study area were between 112 and 151. The area was dominated by medium and moderate vulnerable zones covering an area of 446 km2 and 442 km2 respectively. An area of 79 km2 was covered by the low vulnerable zone while the high vulnerable zone encompassed a total area of 38 km2. Least covered area i-e., 09 km2 was found in the vicinity of the very high vulnerable zone. The validation of the DRASTIC model using the nitrate distribution revealed that very high and high indices have the lower percentage of reliability than of the low to moderate zones as compared with the nitrate distribution in the groundwater.

  16. A model-guided symbolic execution approach for network protocol implementations and vulnerability detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Shameng; Meng, Qingkun; Feng, Chao; Tang, Chaojing

    2017-01-01

    Formal techniques have been devoted to analyzing whether network protocol specifications violate security policies; however, these methods cannot detect vulnerabilities in the implementations of the network protocols themselves. Symbolic execution can be used to analyze the paths of the network protocol implementations, but for stateful network protocols, it is difficult to reach the deep states of the protocol. This paper proposes a novel model-guided approach to detect vulnerabilities in network protocol implementations. Our method first abstracts a finite state machine (FSM) model, then utilizes the model to guide the symbolic execution. This approach achieves high coverage of both the code and the protocol states. The proposed method is implemented and applied to test numerous real-world network protocol implementations. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method is more effective than traditional fuzzing methods such as SPIKE at detecting vulnerabilities in the deep states of network protocol implementations.

  17. A model-guided symbolic execution approach for network protocol implementations and vulnerability detection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shameng Wen

    Full Text Available Formal techniques have been devoted to analyzing whether network protocol specifications violate security policies; however, these methods cannot detect vulnerabilities in the implementations of the network protocols themselves. Symbolic execution can be used to analyze the paths of the network protocol implementations, but for stateful network protocols, it is difficult to reach the deep states of the protocol. This paper proposes a novel model-guided approach to detect vulnerabilities in network protocol implementations. Our method first abstracts a finite state machine (FSM model, then utilizes the model to guide the symbolic execution. This approach achieves high coverage of both the code and the protocol states. The proposed method is implemented and applied to test numerous real-world network protocol implementations. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method is more effective than traditional fuzzing methods such as SPIKE at detecting vulnerabilities in the deep states of network protocol implementations.

  18. Flood vulnerability assessment of residential buildings by explicit damage process modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2015-01-01

    The present paper introduces a vulnerability modelling approach for residential buildings in flood. The modelling approach explicitly considers relevant damage processes, i.e. water infiltration into the building, mechanical failure of components in the building envelope and damage from water...

  19. Calculating Nuclear Power Plant Vulnerability Using Integrated Geometry and Event/Fault-Tree Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peplow, Douglas E.; Sulfredge, C. David; Sanders, Robert L.; Morris, Robert H.; Hann, Todd A.

    2004-01-01

    Since the events of September 11, 2001, the vulnerability of nuclear power plants to terrorist attacks has become a national concern. The results of vulnerability analysis are greatly influenced by the computational approaches used. Standard approximations used in fault-tree analysis are not applicable for attacks, where high component failure probabilities are expected; two methods that do work with high failure probabilities are presented. Different blast modeling approaches can also affect the end results. Modeling the structural details of facility buildings and the geometric layout of components within the buildings is required to yield meaningful results

  20. Modelling self-assessed vulnerability to HIV and its associated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-10-19

    Oct 19, 2017 ... regression to model relationship between the outcome variable and risk factors, and controlled ..... rural and urban households spread across areas the 36 states in ...... Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 88, 519–526.

  1. Indicator-based model to assess vulnerability to landslides in urban areas. Case study of Husi city (Eastern Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grozavu, Adrian; Ciprian Margarint, Mihai; Catalin Stanga, Iulian

    2013-04-01

    vulnerability level. The general vulnerability index (GVI) was obtained through a final transformation that was done to limit the spread of variation between zero (minimum vulnerability) and one (maximum vulnerability): GVIi = Vi/Vmax. In this form, the elements at risk are individually inventoried and spatialized in vector format as points, lines, polygons, each one having its own vulnerability value, but the results can be used only at the precise local level (both by practitioners and decision makers). To allow a more profound interpretation, the general vulnerability index was spatialized in two distinct ways: (1) creating a raster with a standard pixel size (e.g. 20 x 20 m, 50 x 50 m) and calculating the average vulnerability of the exposed elements in each pixel; (2) choosing a interpolation method (e.g. krigging) that would allow to integrate the spatial autocorrelation of the elements at risk and to obtain an output raster at the same resolution with the susceptibility map and a further risk assessment.

  2. Risk and protective factors for bullying victimization among AIDS-affected and vulnerable children in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cluver, Lucie; Bowes, Lucy; Gardner, Frances

    2010-10-01

    To examine whether bullying is a risk factor for psychological distress among children in poor, urban South Africa. To determine risk and protective factors for bullying victimization. One thousand and fifty children were interviewed in deprived neighborhoods, including orphans, AIDS-affected children, streetchildren, and child-headed households. Using standardized scales, children reported on bullying victimization, psychological problems, and potential risk and protective factors at individual, peer, family, and community levels. 34% of children reported bullying victimization. Bullied children showed higher levels of anxiety, depression, suicidal ideation, and post-traumatic stress, as well as higher levels of clinical-level disorder. Risk factors for being bullied were being a victim of physical or sexual abuse or domestic violence at home, living in a high-violence community, and experiencing AIDS-related stigma (independent of sociodemographic cofactors and child psychological disorder). Protective factors were sibling support and support from friends, although findings suggest that friendship groups may also be sources of bullying for AIDS-affected children. Bullying is an independent and important risk factor in child psychological distress in South Africa. Children victimized at home or in the community are more likely to be bullied, suggesting a cycle of violence. Those working with children in Southern Africa should be alert to risk of bullying, especially among abused or AIDS-affected children. Interventions combating community violence and AIDS-related stigma may have additional positive impacts on bullying, and promotion of peer and sibling support may reduce bullying victimization among high-risk children. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Risk and Management Control: A Partial Least Square Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Pontoppidan, Iens Christian

    Risk and economic theory goes many year back (e.g. to Keynes & Knight 1921) and risk/uncertainty belong to one of the explanations for the existence of the firm (Coarse, 1937). The present financial crisis going on in the past years have re-accentuated risk and the need of coherence...... and interrelations between risk and areas within management accounting. The idea is that management accounting should be able to conduct a valid feed forward but also predictions for decision making including risk. This study reports the test of a theoretical model using partial least squares (PLS) on survey data...... and a external attitude dimension. The results have important implications for both management control research and for the management control systems design for the way accountants consider the element of risk in their different tasks, both operational and strategic. Specifically, it seems that different risk...

  4. Modelling Favourability for Invasive Species Encroachment to Identify Areas of Native Species Vulnerability

    OpenAIRE

    Romero, David; Báez, José C.; Ferri-Yáñez, Francisco; Bellido, Jesús J.; Real, Raimundo

    2014-01-01

    We assessed the vulnerability of the native Mediterranean pond turtle to encroachment by the invasive red-eared slider in southern Spain. We first obtained an ecogeographical favourability model for the Mediterranean pond turtle. We then modelled the presence/absence of the red-eared slider in the Mediterranean pond turtle range and obtained an encroachment favourability model. We also obtained a favourability model for the red-eared slider using the ecogeographical favourability for the Medi...

  5. Exploring Sex Differences in Worry with a Cognitive Vulnerability Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalta, Alyson K.; Chambless, Dianne L.

    2008-01-01

    A multivariate model was developed to examine the relative contributions of mastery, stress, interpretive bias, and coping to sex differences in worry. Rumination was incorporated as a second outcome variable to test the specificity of these associations. Participants included two samples of undergraduates totaling 302 men and 379 women. A path…

  6. Determining shallow aquifer vulnerability by the DRASTIC model ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    N C Mondal

    2017-09-02

    Sep 2, 2017 ... Numerous schemes have been developed ... Telangana (Brindha and Elango 2015), Mysore city ... districts and Mettur region of Tamil Nadu (Srini- ... In such a case, the uncontrolled discharge of ... the model by sensitive analysis, and (3) cross-verify ... through a network of joints, faults and lineaments,.

  7. A coupled human and landscape conceptual model of risk and resilience in mountain communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, Jorge; Haisch, Tina; Martius, Olivia; Mayer, Heike; Ifejika Speranza, Chinwe; Keiler, Margreth

    2017-04-01

    Recent extreme natural disasters have focused the attention of the global community to society's vulnerability to these events. Simultaneously these natural disasters occur within a broader social and physical context that is interconnected and may include social upheavals, economic crises, and climate change. While progress has been made to mitigate and adapt to natural hazards, much of the existing research lacks interdisciplinary approaches that equally consider both natural and social processes. More importantly, this lack of integration between approaches remains a major challenge in developing disaster risk management plans for communities. In this study we focus on European Alpine communities that face numerous human and environmental risks and differ regarding their ability to cope with these risks and develop resilience. Herein we present a conceptual model of mountain communities exposed to socio-economic (e.g. economic downturn) and biophysical (e.g. floods) "shocks". We identify system boundaries, structure, components, and processes required to describe both human and landscape systems for mountain communities. More importantly we determine feedbacks within and between both systems. The purpose of the model is to investigate which shocks overcome the buffering capacity of mountain communities, and determine which shocks have a greater effect on mountain communities. Socioeconomic, climate, and hazard 'shock' scenarios have been developed for communities with different geographic sizes. Examples of inputs for the model and methods required to test the model are provided. Guided by the model and scenarios we discuss potential outcomes regarding community resilience.

  8. A model for the development of mothers' perceived vulnerability of preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horwitz, Sarah McCue; Storfer-Isser, Amy; Kerker, Bonnie D; Lilo, Emily; Leibovitz, Ann; St John, Nick; Shaw, Richard J

    2015-06-01

    Some mothers of preterm infants continue to view them as vulnerable after their health has improved. These exaggerated perceptions of vulnerability lead to poor parent-child interactions and, subsequently, to adverse child outcomes. However, there is no theoretical model to explain why these exaggerated perceptions develop in only some mother-child dyads. Data for this study come from a randomized trial of an intervention to reduce distress in mothers of preterm infants. A total of 105 mothers older than 18 years of infants aged 25-34 weeks, weighing >600 g and with clinically significant anxiety, depression, or trauma symptoms, were recruited and randomized. Women were assessed at baseline, after intervention, and at 6 months after birth. The outcome for these analyses was perceptions of infant vulnerability as measured by the Vulnerable Baby Scale (VBS) at 6 months after birth. A theoretical model developed from the extant literature was tested using the MacArthur Mediator-Moderator Approach. A dysfunctional coping style, high depression, anxiety, or trauma symptoms in response to the preterm birth, and low social support were related to 6-month VBS scores. Maternal response to trauma was directly related to VBS, and an important precursor of maternal response to trauma was a dysfunctional coping style. This model suggests that maternal responses to trauma are critical in the formation of exaggerated perceptions of vulnerability as are dysfunctional coping styles and low social support. Women with these characteristics should be targeted for intervention to prevent poor parenting practices that result from exaggerated perceptions of vulnerability.

  9. Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagenlocher, Michael; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Kienberger, Stefan

    2013-08-14

    As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified vulnerability "hotspots" into their underlying factors, our approach provides valuable information on both (1) the location of neighborhoods, and (2) vulnerability factors that should be given priority in the context of targeted intervention

  10. The application of numerical debris flow modelling for the generation of physical vulnerability curves

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quan Luna, B.; Blahůt, Jan; van Westen, C.J.; Sterlacchini, S.; van Asch, T.W.J.; Akbas, S.O.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 7 (2011), s. 2047-2060 ISSN 1561-8633 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30460519 Keywords : debris flow modelling * hazard * vulnerability curves Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 1.983, year: 2011 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/11/2047/2011/

  11. Design of an Intelligent Support Agent Model for People with a Cognitive Vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aziz, A.A.; Klein, M.C.A.; Zhang, B.; Wang, Y.; Kinser, W.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the design of an intelligent agent application aimed at supporting people with a cognitive vulnerability to prevent the onset of a depression. For this, a computational model of the cognitive processes around depression is used. The agent application uses the principles of

  12. Land Use Management by Assessing Aquifer Vulnerability in Khovayes Plain Using the DRASTIC and SINTACS Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Mousavi

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Land use change is a gradual process that entails dire consequences for groundwater quality and quantity. Quantitative changes in groundwater can be usually monitored by controlling the annual groundwater balance. Monitoring qualitative changes in groundwater, however, is both time-consuming and expensive. DRASTIC and SINTACS models exploit aquifer properties to predict its vulnerability. In this study, aquifer vulnerability assessment was performed by the DRASTIC & SINTACS models for future land use management in Khovayes, southwest Iran. The DRASTIC Model is based on hydrological and hydrogeological parameters involved in contaminant transport. SINTACS parameters are the same as those of the DRASTIC model, except that weighting and ranking the parameters are more flexible. Once vulnerability maps of the study region had been prepared, they were verified against the nitrate map. A correlation coefficient of 0.4 was obtained between the DRASTIC map and the nitrate one while the correlation between the SINTACS and the nitrate maps was found to be 0.8. Map removal and single-parameter sensitivity analyses were carried out, which showed the southwestern stretches of the study area as the region with the highest risk of vulnerability.

  13. Modelling the ecological vulnerability to forest fires in mediterranean ecosystems using geographic information technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duguy, Beatriz; Alloza, José Antonio; Baeza, M Jaime; De la Riva, Juan; Echeverría, Maite; Ibarra, Paloma; Llovet, Juan; Cabello, Fernando Pérez; Rovira, Pere; Vallejo, Ramon V

    2012-12-01

    Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model's predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model's predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model's performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.

  14. Topological Vulnerability Evaluation Model Based on Fractal Dimension of Complex Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Gou

    Full Text Available With an increasing emphasis on network security, much more attentions have been attracted to the vulnerability of complex networks. In this paper, the fractal dimension, which can reflect space-filling capacity of networks, is redefined as the origin moment of the edge betweenness to obtain a more reasonable evaluation of vulnerability. The proposed model combining multiple evaluation indexes not only overcomes the shortage of average edge betweenness's failing to evaluate vulnerability of some special networks, but also characterizes the topological structure and highlights the space-filling capacity of networks. The applications to six US airline networks illustrate the practicality and effectiveness of our proposed method, and the comparisons with three other commonly used methods further validate the superiority of our proposed method.

  15. Concrete structures vulnerability under impact: characterization, modeling, and validation - Concrete slabs vulnerability under impact: characterization, modeling, and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xuan Dung Vu

    2013-01-01

    Concrete is a material whose behavior is complex, especially in cases of extreme loads. The objective of this thesis is to carry out an experimental characterization of the behavior of concrete under impact-generated stresses (confined compression and dynamic traction) and to develop a robust numerical tool to reliably model this behavior. In the experimental part, we have studied concrete samples from the VTT center (Technical Research Center of Finland). At first, quasi-static triaxial compressions with the confinement varies from 0 MPa (unconfined compression test) to 600 MPa were realized. The stiffness of the concrete increases with confinement pressure because of the reduction of porosity. Therefore, the maximum shear strength of the concrete is increased. The presence of water plays an important role when the degree of saturation is high and the concrete is subjected to high confinement pressure. Beyond a certain level of confinement pressure, the maximum shear strength of concrete decreases with increasing water content. The effect of water also influences the volumetric behavior of concrete. When all free pores are closed as a result of compaction, the low compressibility of the water prevents the deformation of the concrete, whereby the wet concrete is less deformed than the dry concrete for the same mean stress. The second part of the experimental program concerns dynamic tensile tests at different loading velocities, and different moisture conditions of concrete. The results show that the tensile strength of concrete C50 may increase up to 5 times compared to its static strength for a strain rate of about 100 s -1 . In the numerical part, we are interested in improving an existing constitutive coupled model of concrete behavior called PRM (Pontiroli-Rouquand-Mazars) to predict the concrete behavior under impact. This model is based on a coupling between a damage model which is able to describe the degradation mechanisms and cracking of the concrete at

  16. Generalized semi-Markovian dividend discount model: risk and return

    OpenAIRE

    D'Amico, Guglielmo

    2016-01-01

    The article presents a general discrete time dividend valuation model when the dividend growth rate is a general continuous variable. The main assumption is that the dividend growth rate follows a discrete time semi-Markov chain with measurable space. The paper furnishes sufficient conditions that assure finiteness of fundamental prices and risks and new equations that describe the first and second order price-dividend ratios. Approximation methods to solve equations are provided and some new...

  17. Pathways to HIV risk and vulnerability among lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgendered methamphetamine users: a multi-cohort gender-based analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patterson Thomas L

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Methamphetamine (MA use continues to be a major public health concern in many urban settings. We sought to assess potential relationships between MA use and individual, social, and structural HIV vulnerabilities among sexual minority (lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgendered drug users. Methods Beginning in 2005 and ending in 2008, 2109 drug users were enroled into one of three cohort studies in Vancouver, Canada. We analysed longitudinal data from all self-identified sexual minority participants (n = 248. Logistic regression using generalized estimating equations (GEE was used to examine the independent correlates of MA use over time. All analyses were stratified by biological sex at birth. Results At baseline, 104 (7.5% males and 144 (20.4% females reported sexual minority status, among whom 64 (62.1% and 58 (40.3% reported MA use in the past six months, respectively. Compared to heterosexual participants, sexual minority males (odds ratio [OR] = 3.74, p p = 0.003 were more likely to report recent MA use. In multivariate analysis, MA use among sexual minority males was associated with younger age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.93 per year older, p = 0.011, Aboriginal ancestry (AOR = 2.59, p = 0.019, injection drug use (AOR = 3.98, p p = 0.008, unprotected intercourse (AOR = 1.62, p = 0.048, and increased depressive symptoms (AOR = 1.67, p = 0.044. Among females, MA use was associated with injection drug use (AOR = 2.49, p = 0.002, Downtown South residency (i.e., an area known for drug use (AOR = 1.60, p = 0.047, and unprotected intercourse with sex trade clients (AOR = 2.62, p = 0.027. Conclusions Methamphetamine use was more prevalent among sexual minority males and females and was associated with different sets of HIV risks and vulnerabilities. Our findings suggest that interventions addressing MA-related harms may need to be informed by more nuanced understandings of the intersection between drug use patterns, social and

  18. Pathways to HIV risk and vulnerability among lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgendered methamphetamine users: a multi-cohort gender-based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Brandon D L; Wood, Evan; Shoveller, Jean A; Patterson, Thomas L; Montaner, Julio S G; Kerr, Thomas

    2011-01-07

    Methamphetamine (MA) use continues to be a major public health concern in many urban settings. We sought to assess potential relationships between MA use and individual, social, and structural HIV vulnerabilities among sexual minority (lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgendered) drug users. Beginning in 2005 and ending in 2008, 2109 drug users were enrolled into one of three cohort studies in Vancouver, Canada. We analysed longitudinal data from all self-identified sexual minority participants (n = 248). Logistic regression using generalized estimating equations (GEE) was used to examine the independent correlates of MA use over time. All analyses were stratified by biological sex at birth. At baseline, 104 (7.5%) males and 144 (20.4%) females reported sexual minority status, among whom 64 (62.1%) and 58 (40.3%) reported MA use in the past six months, respectively. Compared to heterosexual participants, sexual minority males (odds ratio [OR] = 3.74, p order or area restriction (i.e., "no-go zone") impact access to services or influence where drugs are used or purchased (AOR = 4.18, p = 0.008), unprotected intercourse (AOR = 1.62, p = 0.048), and increased depressive symptoms (AOR = 1.67, p = 0.044). Among females, MA use was associated with injection drug use (AOR = 2.49, p = 0.002), Downtown South residency (i.e., an area known for drug use) (AOR = 1.60, p = 0.047), and unprotected intercourse with sex trade clients (AOR = 2.62, p = 0.027). Methamphetamine use was more prevalent among sexual minority males and females and was associated with different sets of HIV risks and vulnerabilities. Our findings suggest that interventions addressing MA-related harms may need to be informed by more nuanced understandings of the intersection between drug use patterns, social and structural HIV vulnerabilities, and gender/sexual identities. In particular, MA-focused prevention and treatment programs tailored to disenfranchised male and female sexual minority youth are recommended.

  19. A framework for the selection and ensemble development of flood vulnerability models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Rui; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Martina, Mario

    2017-04-01

    Effective understanding and management of flood risk requires comprehensive risk assessment studies that consider not only the hazard component, but also the impacts that the phenomena may have on the built environment, economy and society. This integrated approach has gained importance over recent decades, and with it so has the scientific attention given to flood vulnerability models describing the relationships between flood intensity metrics and damage to physical assets, also known as flood loss models. Despite considerable progress in this field, many challenges persist. Flood damage mechanisms are complex and depend on multiple variables, which can have different degrees of importance depending on the application setting. In addition, data required for the development and validation of such models tend to be scarce, particularly in data poor regions. These issues are reflected in the large amount of flood vulnerability models that are available in the literature today, as well as in their high heterogeneity: they are built with different modelling approaches, in different geographic contexts, utilizing different explanatory variables, and with varying levels of complexity. Notwithstanding recent developments in this area, uncertainty remains high, and large disparities exist among models. For these reasons, identifying which model or models, given their properties, are appropriate for a given context is not straightforward. In the present study, we propose a framework that guides the structured selection of flood vulnerability models and enables ranking them according to their suitability for a certain application, based on expert judgement. The approach takes advantage of current state of the art and most up-to-date knowledge on flood vulnerability processes. Given the heterogeneity and uncertainty currently present in flood vulnerability models, we propose the use of a model ensemble. With this in mind, the proposed approach is based on a weighting scheme

  20. Optimization of DRASTIC method by artificial neural network, nitrate vulnerability index, and composite DRASTIC models to assess groundwater vulnerability for unconfined aquifer of Shiraz Plain, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baghapour, Mohammad Ali; Fadaei Nobandegani, Amir; Talebbeydokhti, Nasser; Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Nadiri, Ata Allah; Gharekhani, Maryam; Chitsazan, Nima

    2016-01-01

    Extensive human activities and unplanned land uses have put groundwater resources of Shiraz plain at a high risk of nitrate pollution, causing several environmental and human health issues. To address these issues, water resources managers utilize groundwater vulnerability assessment and determination of protection. This study aimed to prepare the vulnerability maps of Shiraz aquifer by using Composite DRASTIC index, Nitrate Vulnerability index, and artificial neural network and also to compare their efficiency. The parameters of the indexes that were employed in this study are: depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone, hydraulic conductivity, and land use. These parameters were rated, weighted, and integrated using GIS, and then, used to develop the risk maps of Shiraz aquifer. The results indicated that the southeastern part of the aquifer was at the highest potential risk. Given the distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations from the wells in the underlying aquifer, the artificial neural network model offered greater accuracy compared to the other two indexes. The study concluded that the artificial neural network model is an effective model to improve the DRASTIC index and provides a confident estimate of the pollution risk. As intensive agricultural activities are the dominant land use and water table is shallow in the vulnerable zones, optimized irrigation techniques and a lower rate of fertilizers are suggested. The findings of our study could be used as a scientific basis in future for sustainable groundwater management in Shiraz plain.

  1. Web Applications Vulnerability Management using a Quantitative Stochastic Risk Modeling Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergiu SECHEL

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to propose a quantitative risk modeling method that reduces the guess work and uncertainty from the vulnerability and risk assessment activities of web based applications while providing users the flexibility to assess risk according to their risk appetite and tolerance with a high degree of assurance. The research method is based on the research done by the OWASP Foundation on this subject but their risk rating methodology needed de-bugging and updates in different in key areas that are presented in this paper. The modified risk modeling method uses Monte Carlo simulations to model risk characteristics that can’t be determined without guess work and it was tested in vulnerability assessment activities on real production systems and in theory by assigning discrete uniform assumptions to all risk charac-teristics (risk attributes and evaluate the results after 1.5 million rounds of Monte Carlo simu-lations.

  2. An agent-based model of flood risk and insurance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dubbelboer, J.; Nikolic, I.; Jenkins, K.; Hall, J

    2017-01-01

    Flood risk emerges from the dynamic interaction between natural hazards and human vulnerability. Methods for the quantification of flood risk are well established, but tend to deal with human and economic vulnerability as being static or changing with an exogenously defined trend. In this paper

  3. Vulnerable Genders, Vulnerable Loves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schleicher, Marianne

    2015-01-01

    This chapter analyses religious reflections on vulnerable genders and vulnerable loves from the Hebrew Bible to early Rabbinic literature. It is based on theories by inter alia Donna Haraway on complex identities, Turner and Maryanski on love as a prerequisite for survival, Michel Foucault...... on gathering knowledge and its often unpremeditated effect of recognition and inclusion, and Judith Butler on cultural intelligibility and subversion from within. With these theories as a departing point for the analysis, the chapter links the vulnerability of complex identities with the vulnerability...... of cultures which leads to the overall understanding that culture can accommodate complex identities associated with individual and cultural vulnerability as long as the overall survival of the culture is not threatened. This understanding questions the feasibility of the ethical position of thinkers...

  4. Adolescent Social Isolation as a Model of Heightened Vulnerability to Comorbid Alcoholism and Anxiety Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Tracy R; Karkhanis, Anushree N; Jones, Sara R; Weiner, Jeffrey L

    2016-06-01

    Individuals diagnosed with anxiety-related illnesses are at increased risk of developing alcoholism, exhibit a telescoped progression of this disease and fare worse in recovery, relative to alcoholics that do not suffer from a comorbid anxiety disorder. Similarly, preclinical evidence supports the notion that stress and anxiety represent major risk factors for the development of alcohol use disorder (AUD). Despite the importance of understanding the link between anxiety and alcoholism, much remains unknown about the neurobiological substrates underlying this relationship. One stumbling block has been the lack of animal models that reliably reproduce the spectrum of behaviors associated with increased vulnerability to these diseases. Here, we review the literature that has examined the behavioral and neurobiological outcomes of a simple rodent adolescent social isolation procedure and discuss its validity as a model of vulnerability to comorbid anxiety disorders and alcoholism. Recent studies have provided strong evidence that adolescent social isolation of male rats leads to the expression of a variety of behaviors linked with increased vulnerability to anxiety and/or AUD, including deficits in sensory gating and fear extinction, and increases in anxiety measures and ethanol drinking. Neurobiological studies are beginning to identify mesolimbic adaptations that may contribute to the behavioral phenotype engendered by this model. Some of these changes include increased excitability of ventral tegmental area dopamine neurons and pyramidal cells in the basolateral amygdala and significant alterations in baseline and stimulated catecholamine signaling. A growing body of evidence suggests that adolescent social isolation may represent a reliable rodent model of heightened vulnerability to anxiety disorders and alcoholism in male rats. These studies provide initial support for the face, construct, and predictive validity of this model and highlight its utility in

  5. Developing a probability-based model of aquifer vulnerability in an agricultural region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shih-Kai; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Peng, Yi-Huei

    2013-04-01

    SummaryHydrogeological settings of aquifers strongly influence the regional groundwater movement and pollution processes. Establishing a map of aquifer vulnerability is considerably critical for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a novel probability-based DRASTIC model of aquifer vulnerability in the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan, using indicator kriging and to determine various risk categories of contamination potentials based on estimated vulnerability indexes. Categories and ratings of six parameters in the probability-based DRASTIC model were probabilistically characterized according to the parameter classification methods of selecting a maximum estimation probability and calculating an expected value. Moreover, the probability-based estimation and assessment gave us an excellent insight into propagating the uncertainty of parameters due to limited observation data. To examine the prediction capacity of pollutants for the developed probability-based DRASTIC model, medium, high, and very high risk categories of contamination potentials were compared with observed nitrate-N exceeding 0.5 mg/L indicating the anthropogenic groundwater pollution. The analyzed results reveal that the developed probability-based DRASTIC model is capable of predicting high nitrate-N groundwater pollution and characterizing the parameter uncertainty via the probability estimation processes.

  6. Considering Time-Dependency of Social Vulnerability in Crisis Modeling and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubrecht, C.; Steinnocher, K.; Freire, S.; Loibl, W.; Peters-Anders, J.; Ungar, J.

    2012-04-01

    Crisis and disaster management is much more than the immediate first-response actions following an incident. In many projects the main focus has been on the phase starting at the point when an unwanted event happens and lasting until the activities return to normal routines (i.e., ad hoc reaction rather than proactive mitigation). There has been less emphasis on the other phases of the disaster management cycle such as prevention, preparedness, recovery and reconstruction, even though those phases have a strong influence on the general status of a society and its citizens. Especially the potential of a crisis to escalate into a large-scale disaster is heavily dependent on the overall level of preparedness as well as on the planning of mitigation and response actions and their timely execution. There is a need for improved decision-making support that enables modeling of different crisis scenarios and their impacts according to chosen prevention and response actions. Vulnerability describing the status of a society with respect to an imposed hazard or potential impact is considered a strongly multidisciplinary concept. A central objective of vulnerability assessment is to provide indications where and how people - and more specifically, what kind of people - might be affected by a certain impact. Results should provide decision- and policy-makers with supporting information to target response and mitigation actions adequately. For assessment of the social dimension of vulnerability, population exposure mapping is usually considered the starting point. Integration of social structure and varying aspects of resilience further differentiate situation-specific vulnerability patterns on a local scale. In a disaster risk management context, assessment of human vulnerability has generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective integrated risk analysis

  7. Understanding animal fears: a comparison of the cognitive vulnerability and harm-looming models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armfield Jason M

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Cognitive Vulnerability Model holds that both clinical and sub-clinical manifestations of animal fears are a result of how an animal is perceived, and can be used to explain both individual differences in fear acquisition and the uneven distribution of fears in the population. This study looked at the association between fear of a number of animals and perceptions of the animals as uncontrollable, unpredictable, dangerous and disgusting. Also assessed were the perceived loomingness, prior familiarity, and negative evaluation of the animals as well as possible conditioning experiences. Methods 162 first-year University students rated their fear and perceptions of four high-fear and four low-fear animals. Results Perceptions of the animals as dangerous, disgusting and uncontrollable were significantly associated with fear of both high- and low-fear animals while perceptions of unpredictability were significantly associated with fear of high-fear animals. Conditioning experiences were unrelated to fear of any animals. In multiple regression analyses, loomingness did not account for a significant amount of the variance in fear beyond that accounted for by the cognitive vulnerability variables. However, the vulnerability variables accounted for between 20% and 51% of the variance in all animals fears beyond that accounted for by perceptions of the animals as looming. Perceptions of dangerousness, uncontrollability and unpredictability were highly predictive of the uneven distribution of animal fears. Conclusion This study provides support for the Cognitive Vulnerability Model of the etiology of specific fears and phobias and brings into question the utility of the harm-looming model in explaining animal fear.

  8. Engineering models for catastrophe risk and their application to insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Weimin

    2002-06-01

    Internationally earthquake insurance, like all other insurance (fire, auto), adopted actuarial approach in the past, which is, based on historical loss experience to determine insurance rate. Due to the fact that earthquake is a rare event with severe consequence, irrational determination of premium rate and lack of understanding scale of potential loss led to many insurance companies insolvent after Northridge earthquake in 1994. Along with recent advances in earth science, computer science and engineering, computerized loss estimation methodologies based on first principles have been developed to the point that losses from destructive earthquakes can be quantified with reasonable accuracy using scientific modeling techniques. This paper intends to introduce how engineering models can assist to quantify earthquake risk and how insurance industry can use this information to manage their risk in the United States and abroad.

  9. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  10. Bayesian distributed lag interaction models to identify perinatal windows of vulnerability in children's health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Chiu, Yueh-Hsiu Mathilda; Hsu, Hsiao-Hsien Leon; Wright, Robert O; Wright, Rosalind J; Coull, Brent A

    2017-07-01

    Epidemiological research supports an association between maternal exposure to air pollution during pregnancy and adverse children's health outcomes. Advances in exposure assessment and statistics allow for estimation of both critical windows of vulnerability and exposure effect heterogeneity. Simultaneous estimation of windows of vulnerability and effect heterogeneity can be accomplished by fitting a distributed lag model (DLM) stratified by subgroup. However, this can provide an incomplete picture of how effects vary across subgroups because it does not allow for subgroups to have the same window but different within-window effects or to have different windows but the same within-window effect. Because the timing of some developmental processes are common across subpopulations of infants while for others the timing differs across subgroups, both scenarios are important to consider when evaluating health risks of prenatal exposures. We propose a new approach that partitions the DLM into a constrained functional predictor that estimates windows of vulnerability and a scalar effect representing the within-window effect directly. The proposed method allows for heterogeneity in only the window, only the within-window effect, or both. In a simulation study we show that a model assuming a shared component across groups results in lower bias and mean squared error for the estimated windows and effects when that component is in fact constant across groups. We apply the proposed method to estimate windows of vulnerability in the association between prenatal exposures to fine particulate matter and each of birth weight and asthma incidence, and estimate how these associations vary by sex and maternal obesity status in a Boston-area prospective pre-birth cohort study. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. spatially identifying vulnerable areas

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model structure is aimed at understanding the critical vulnerable factors that ... This paper incorporates multiple criteria and rank risk factors. ..... In terms of quantifying vulnerable areas within the country, the analysis is done based on 9 ...

  12. Fuzzing and Vulnerabilities Search

    OpenAIRE

    Stanislav Evgenyevich Kirillov; Nikolai Petrovich Lavrentiev

    2013-01-01

    Fuzzing for vulnerabilities can be very effective if we know the input data format. This work contains description of network message format recovery algorithm and the usage of restored data model in fuzzing and vulnerabilities search.

  13. Fuzzing and Vulnerabilities Search

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav Evgenyevich Kirillov

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Fuzzing for vulnerabilities can be very effective if we know the input data format. This work contains description of network message format recovery algorithm and the usage of restored data model in fuzzing and vulnerabilities search.

  14. Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio O; Sandberg, Krister

    2009-10-01

    Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.

  15. Modeling and Vulnerability Analysis of Cyber-Physical Power Systems Considering Network Topology and Power Flow Properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Guo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Conventional power systems are developing into cyber-physical power systems (CPPS with wide applications of communication, computer and control technologies. However, multiple practical cases show that the failure of cyber layers is a major factor leading to blackouts. Therefore, it is necessary to discuss the cascading failure process considering cyber layer failures and analyze the vulnerability of CPPS. In this paper, a CPPS model, which consists of cyber layer, physical layer and cyber-physical interface, is presented using complex network theory. Considering power flow properties, the impacts of cyber node failures on the cascading failure propagation process are studied. Moreover, two vulnerability indices are established from the perspective of both network structure and power flow properties. A vulnerability analysis method is proposed, and the CPPS performance before and after cascading failures is analyzed by the proposed method to calculate vulnerability indices. In the case study, three typical scenarios are analyzed to illustrate the method, and vulnerabilities under different interface strategies and attack strategies are compared. Two thresholds are proposed to value the CPPS vulnerability roughly. The results show that CPPS is more vulnerable under malicious attacks and cyber nodes with high indices are vulnerable points which should be reinforced.

  16. Targetable vulnerabilities in T- and NK-cell lymphomas identified through preclinical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Samuel Y; Yoshida, Noriaki; Christie, Amanda L; Ghandi, Mahmoud; Dharia, Neekesh V; Dempster, Joshua; Murakami, Mark; Shigemori, Kay; Morrow, Sara N; Van Scoyk, Alexandria; Cordero, Nicolas A; Stevenson, Kristen E; Puligandla, Maneka; Haas, Brian; Lo, Christopher; Meyers, Robin; Gao, Galen; Cherniack, Andrew; Louissaint, Abner; Nardi, Valentina; Thorner, Aaron R; Long, Henry; Qiu, Xintao; Morgan, Elizabeth A; Dorfman, David M; Fiore, Danilo; Jang, Julie; Epstein, Alan L; Dogan, Ahmet; Zhang, Yanming; Horwitz, Steven M; Jacobsen, Eric D; Santiago, Solimar; Ren, Jian-Guo; Guerlavais, Vincent; Annis, D Allen; Aivado, Manuel; Saleh, Mansoor N; Mehta, Amitkumar; Tsherniak, Aviad; Root, David; Vazquez, Francisca; Hahn, William C; Inghirami, Giorgio; Aster, Jon C; Weinstock, David M; Koch, Raphael

    2018-05-22

    T- and NK-cell lymphomas (TCL) are a heterogenous group of lymphoid malignancies with poor prognosis. In contrast to B-cell and myeloid malignancies, there are few preclinical models of TCLs, which has hampered the development of effective therapeutics. Here we establish and characterize preclinical models of TCL. We identify multiple vulnerabilities that are targetable with currently available agents (e.g., inhibitors of JAK2 or IKZF1) and demonstrate proof-of-principle for biomarker-driven therapies using patient-derived xenografts (PDXs). We show that MDM2 and MDMX are targetable vulnerabilities within TP53-wild-type TCLs. ALRN-6924, a stapled peptide that blocks interactions between p53 and both MDM2 and MDMX has potent in vitro activity and superior in vivo activity across 8 different PDX models compared to the standard-of-care agent romidepsin. ALRN-6924 induced a complete remission in a patient with TP53-wild-type angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphoma, demonstrating the potential for rapid translation of discoveries from subtype-specific preclinical models.

  17. Assessing frost damages using dynamic models in walnut trees: exposure rather than vulnerability controls frost risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume, Charrier; Isabelle, Chuine; Marc, Bonhomme; Thierry, Améglio

    2018-05-01

    Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod, were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), in two locations (low and high elevation) for three walnut genotypes with contrasted phenology and maximum hardiness (Juglans regia cv Franquette, J. regia × nigra 'Early' and 'Late'). The photothermal model predicted more accurate values for all genotypes (efficiency = 0.879; Root Mean Standard Error Predicted (RMSEP) = 2.55 °C) than the thermal model (efficiency = 0.801; RMSEP = 3.24 °C). Predicted frost damages were strongly correlated to minimum temperature of the freezing events (ρ = -0.983) rather than actual frost hardiness (ρ = -0.515), or ratio of phenological stage completion (ρ = 0.336). Higher frost risks are consequently predicted during winter, at high elevation, whereas spring is only risky at low elevation in early genotypes exhibiting faster dehardening rate. However, early frost damages, although of lower value, may negatively affect fruit production the subsequent year (R 2  = 0.381, P = 0.057). These results highlight the interacting pattern between frost exposure and vulnerability at different scales and the necessity of intra-organ studies to understand the time course of frost vulnerability in flower buds along the winter. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. A model for assessing the systemic vulnerability in landslide prone areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pascale

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of spatial planning should include the definition and assessment of possible mitigation strategies regarding the effects of natural hazards on the surrounding territory. Unfortunately, however, there is often a lack of adequate tools to provide necessary support to the local bodies responsible for land management. This paper deals with the conception, the development and the validation of an integrated numerical model for assessing systemic vulnerability in complex and urbanized landslide-prone areas. The proposed model considers this vulnerability not as a characteristic of a particular element at risk, but as a peculiarity of a complex territorial system, in which the elements are reciprocally linked in a functional way. It is an index of the tendency of a given territorial element to suffer damage (usually of a functional kind due to its interconnections with other elements of the same territorial system. The innovative nature of this work also lies in the formalization of a procedure based on a network of influences for an adequate assessment of such "systemic" vulnerability.

    This approach can be used to obtain information which is useful, in any given situation of a territory hit by a landslide event, for the identification of the element which has suffered the most functional damage, ie the most "critical" element and the element which has the greatest repercussions on other elements of the system and thus a "decisive" role in the management of the emergency.

    This model was developed within a GIS system through the following phases:

    1. the topological characterization of the territorial system studied and the assessment of the scenarios in terms of spatial landslide hazard. A statistical method, based on neural networks was proposed for the assessment of landslide hazard;

    2. the analysis of the direct consequences of a scenario event on the system;

    3. the definition of the

  19. Developing a Composite Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment Model Combining DRASTIC with Agricultural Land Use in Choushui River Alluvial Fan, Central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shih-Kai; Hsieh, Chih-Heng; Tsai, Cheng-Bin

    2017-04-01

    Aquifer vulnerability assessment is considered to be an effective tool in controlling potential pollution which is critical for groundwater management. The Choushui River alluvial fan, located in central Taiwan, is an agricultural area with complex crop patterns and various irrigation schemes, which increased the difficulties in groundwater resource management. The aim of this study is to propose an integrated methodology to assess shallow groundwater vulnerability by including land-use impact on groundwater potential pollution. The original groundwater vulnerability methodology, DRASTIC, was modified by adding a land-use parameter in order to assess groundwater vulnerability under intense agricultural activities. To examine the prediction capacity of pollution for the modified DRASTIC model, various risk categories of contamination potentials were compared with observed nitrate-N obtained from groundwater monitoring network. It was found that for the original DRASTIC vulnerability map, some areas with low nitrate-N concentrations are covered within the high vulnerability areas, especially in the northern part of mid-fan areas, where rice paddy is the main crop and planted for two crop seasons per year. The low nitrate-N contamination potential of rice paddies may be resulted from the denitrification in the reduced root zone. By reducing the rating for rice paddies, the modified model was proved to be capable of increasing the precise of prediction in study area. The results can provide a basis for groundwater monitoring network design and effective preserve measures formulation in the mixed agricultural area. Keyword:Aquifer Vulnerability, Groundwater, DRASTIC, Nitrate-N

  20. Anticipating Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Pastoral Systems: Using Dynamic Systems Models for the Kalahari

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J. Dougill

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available It is vitally important to identify agroecosystems that may cease functioning because of changing climate or land degradation. However, identifying such systems is confounded on both conceptual and methodological grounds, especially in systems that are moving toward thresholds, a common trait of dryland environments. This study explores these challenges by analyzing how a range of external pressures affect the vulnerability of dryland pastoral systems in the Kalahari. This is achieved by employing dynamic systems modeling approaches to understand the pathways by which communities became vulnerable to drought. Specifically, we evaluate how external pressures have changed: (1 different agroecosystems' abilities to tolerate drought, i.e., ecosystem resilience; (2 rural communities' abilities to adapt to drought, mediated via their access to assets; and (3 the ability of institutions and policy interventions to play a role in mediating drought-related crises, i.e., socio-political governance. This is done by reanalyzing ecological and participatory research findings along with farm-scale livestock offtake data from across the Kalahari in Botswana. An iterative process was followed to establish narratives exploring how external drivers led to changes in agroecosystem resilience, access to assets, and the institutional capacity to buffer the system. We use "causal loop diagrams" and statistical dynamic system models to express key quantitative relationships and establish future scenarios to help define where uncertainties lie by showing where the system is most sensitive to change. We highlight how that greater sharing of land management knowledge and practices between private and communal land managers can provide 'win-win-win' benefits of reducing system vulnerability, increasing economic income, and building social capital. We use future scenario analyses to identify key areas for future studies of climate change adaptation across the Kalahari.

  1. Investigation of atrial vulnerability by analysis of the sinus node EG from atrial fibrillation models using a phase synchronization method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ying; Wu, Zhong; Yang, Cuiwei; Shao, Jun; Wong, Kelvin Kian Loong; Abbott, Derek

    2012-09-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) can result in life-threatening arrhythmia, and a clinically convenient means for detecting vulnerability remains elusive. We investigated atrial vulnerability by analyzing the sinus electrogram (EG) from AF animal models using a phase synchronization method. Using acetylcholine (ACh)-induced acute canine AF models (n= 4), a total of 128 electrical leads were attached to the surface of the anterior and posterior atria, and the pulmonary veins to form an electrocardiological mapping system. ACh was injected at varying concentrations with ladder-type adjustments. Sinus EGs and induced AF EGs that pertain to specific ACh concentrations were recorded.We hypothesize that the atrial vulnerability may be correlated with the Shannon entropy (SE) of the phase difference matrix that is extracted from the sinus EG. Our research suggests that the combination of SE with the synchronization method enables the sinus node EG to be analyzed and used to estimate atrial vulnerability.

  2. Modeling Electricity Sector Vulnerabilities and Costs Associated with Water Temperatures Under Scenarios of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Newmark, R. L.

    2014-12-01

    The reliability of the power sector is highly vulnerable to variability in the availability and temperature of water resources, including those that might result from potential climatic changes or from competition from other users. In the past decade, power plants throughout the United States have had to shut down or curtail generation due to a lack of available water or from elevated water temperatures. These disruptions in power plant performance can have negative impacts on energy security and can be costly to address. Analysis of water-related vulnerabilities requires modeling capabilities with high spatial and temporal resolution. This research provides an innovative approach to energy-water modeling by evaluating the costs and reliability of a power sector region under policy and climate change scenarios that affect water resource availability and temperatures. This work utilizes results from a spatially distributed river water temperature model coupled with a thermoelectric power plant model to provide inputs into an electricity production cost model that operates on a high spatial and temporal resolution. The regional transmission organization ISO-New England, which includes six New England states and over 32 Gigawatts of power capacity, is utilized as a case study. Hydrological data and power plant operations are analyzed over an eleven year period from 2000-2010 under four scenarios that include climate impacts on water resources and air temperatures as well as strict interpretations of regulations that can affect power plant operations due to elevated water temperatures. Results of these model linkages show how the power sector's reliability and economic performance can be affected by changes in water temperatures and water availability. The effective reliability and capacity value of thermal electric generators are quantified and discussed in the context of current as well as potential future water resource characteristics.

  3. Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez L, D

    2009-01-01

    One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

  4. Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez L, D, E-mail: dlopez@centrogeo.org.m [Centro de Investigacion en GeografIa y Geomatica, Ing. Jorge L. Tamayo A.C., Contoy 137, col. Lomas de Padierna, del Tlalpan, Maxico D.F (Mexico)

    2009-11-01

    One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

  5. Comparative Application of Capacity Models for Seismic Vulnerability Evaluation of Existing RC Structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faella, C.; Lima, C.; Martinelli, E.; Nigro, E.

    2008-01-01

    Seismic vulnerability assessment of existing buildings is one of the most common tasks in which Structural Engineers are currently engaged. Since, its is often a preliminary step to approach the issue of how to retrofit non-seismic designed and detailed structures, it plays a key role in the successful choice of the most suitable strengthening technique. In this framework, the basic information for both seismic assessment and retrofitting is related to the formulation of capacity models for structural members. Plenty of proposals, often contradictory under the quantitative standpoint, are currently available within the technical and scientific literature for defining the structural capacity in terms of force and displacements, possibly with reference to different parameters representing the seismic response. The present paper shortly reviews some of the models for capacity of RC members and compare them with reference to two case studies assumed as representative of a wide class of existing buildings

  6. Assessing the Vulnerability of Large Critical Infrastructure Using Fully-Coupled Blast Effects Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMichael, L D; Noble, C R; Margraf, J D; Glascoe, L G

    2009-03-26

    Structural failures, such as the MacArthur Maze I-880 overpass in Oakland, California and the I-35 bridge in Minneapolis, Minnesota, are recent examples of our national infrastructure's fragility and serve as an important reminder of such infrastructure in our everyday lives. These two failures, as well as the World Trade Center's collapse and the levee failures in New Orleans, highlight the national importance of protecting our infrastructure as much as possible against acts of terrorism and natural hazards. This paper describes a process for evaluating the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to large blast loads using a fully-coupled finite element approach. A description of the finite element software and modeling technique is discussed along with the experimental validation of the numerical tools. We discuss how such an approach can be used for specific problems such as modeling the progressive collapse of a building.

  7. A coupled groundwater-flow-modelling and vulnerability-mapping methodology for karstic terrain management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavouri, Konstantina P.; Karatzas, George P.; Plagnes, Valérie

    2017-08-01

    A coupled groundwater-flow-modelling and vulnerability-mapping methodology for the management of karst aquifers with spatial variability is developed. The methodology takes into consideration the duality of flow and recharge in karst and introduces a simple method to integrate the effect of temporal storage in the unsaturated zone. In order to investigate the applicability of the developed methodology, simulation results are validated against available field measurement data. The criteria maps from the PaPRIKa vulnerability-mapping method are used to document the groundwater flow model. The FEFLOW model is employed for the simulation of the saturated zone of Palaikastro-Chochlakies karst aquifer, in the island of Crete, Greece, for the hydrological years 2010-2012. The simulated water table reproduces typical karst characteristics, such as steep slopes and preferred drain axes, and is in good agreement with field observations. Selected calculated error indicators—Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and model efficiency (E')—are within acceptable value ranges. Results indicate that different storage processes take place in different parts of the aquifer. The north-central part seems to be more sensitive to diffuse recharge, while the southern part is affected primarily by precipitation events. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the parameters of hydraulic conductivity and specific yield. The methodology is used to estimate the feasibility of artificial aquifer recharge (AAR) at the study area. Based on the developed methodology, guidelines were provided for the selection of the appropriate AAR scenario that has positive impact on the water table.

  8. Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

    2017-12-01

    The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

  9. Assessment of vulnerability zones for ground water pollution using GIS-DRASTIC-EC model: A field-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anantha Rao, D.; Naik, Pradeep K.; Jain, Sunil K.; Vinod Kumar, K.; Dhanamjaya Rao, E. N.

    2018-06-01

    Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution is an essential pre-requisite for better planning of an area. We present the groundwater vulnerability assessment in parts of the Yamuna Nagar District, Haryana State, India in an area of about 800 km2, considered to be a freshwater zone in the foothills of the Siwalik Hill Ranges. Such areas in the Lower Himalayas form good groundwater recharge zones, and should always be free from contamination. But, the administration has been trying to promote industrialization along these foothill zones without actually assessing the environmental consequences such activities may invite in the future. GIS-DRASTIC model has been used with field based data inputs for studying the vulnerability assessment. But, we find that inclusion electrical conductivity (EC) as a model parameter makes it more robust. Therefore, we rename it as GIS-DRASTIC-EC model. The model identifies three vulnerability zones such as low, moderate and high with an areal extent of 5%, 80% and 15%, respectively. On the basis of major chemical parameters alone, the groundwater in the foothill zones apparently looks safe, but analysis with the help of GIS-DRASTIC-EC model gives a better perspective of the groundwater quality in terms of identifying the vulnerable areas.

  10. Spatial Modelling of Urban Physical Vulnerability to Explosion Hazards Using GIS and Fuzzy MCDA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasser Ebrahimian Ghajari

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Most of the world’s population is concentrated in accumulated spaces in the form of cities, making the concept of urban planning a significant issue for consideration by decision makers. Urban vulnerability is a major issue which arises in urban management, and is simply defined as how vulnerable various structures in a city are to different hazards. Reducing urban vulnerability and enhancing resilience are considered to be essential steps towards achieving urban sustainability. To date, a vast body of literature has focused on investigating urban systems’ vulnerabilities with regard to natural hazards. However, less attention has been paid to vulnerabilities resulting from man-made hazards. This study proposes to investigate the physical vulnerability of buildings in District 6 of Tehran, Iran, with respect to intentional explosion hazards. A total of 14 vulnerability criteria are identified according to the opinions of various experts, and standard maps for each of these criteria have been generated in a GIS environment. Ultimately, an ordered weighted averaging (OWA technique was applied to generate vulnerability maps for different risk conditions. The results of the present study indicate that only about 25 percent of buildings in the study area have a low level of vulnerability under moderate risk conditions. Sensitivity analysis further illustrates the robustness of the results obtained. Finally, the paper concludes by arguing that local authorities must focus more on risk-reduction techniques in order to reduce physical vulnerability and achieve urban sustainability.

  11. Fischer 344 and Lewis Rat Strains as a Model of Genetic Vulnerability to Drug Addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadoni, Cristina

    2016-01-01

    Today it is well acknowledged that both nature and nurture play important roles in the genesis of psychopathologies, including drug addiction. Increasing evidence suggests that genetic factors contribute for at least 40-60% of the variation in liability to drug dependence. Human genetic studies suggest that multiple genes of small effect, rather than single genes, contribute to the genesis of behavioral psychopathologies. Therefore, the use of inbred rat strains might provide a valuable tool to identify differences, linked to genotype, important in liability to addiction and related disorders. In this regard, Lewis and Fischer 344 inbred rats have been proposed as a model of genetic vulnerability to drug addiction, given their innate differences in sensitivity to the reinforcing and rewarding effects of drugs of abuse, as well their different responsiveness to stressful stimuli. This review will provide evidence in support of this model for the study of the genetic influence on addiction vulnerability, with particular emphasis on differences in mesolimbic dopamine (DA) transmission, rewarding and emotional function. It will be highlighted that Lewis and Fischer 344 rats differ not only in several indices of DA transmission and adaptive changes following repeated drug exposure, but also in hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis responsiveness, influencing not only the ability of the individual to cope with stressful events, but also interfering with rewarding and motivational processes, given the influence of corticosteroids on dopamine neuron functionality. Further differences between the two strains, as impulsivity or anxiousness, might contribute to their different proneness to addiction, and likely these features might be linked to their different DA neurotransmission plasticity. Although differences in other neurotransmitter systems might deserve further investigation, results from the reviewed studies might open new vistas in understanding aberrant

  12. Fischer 344 and Lewis rat strains as a model of genetic vulnerability to drug addiction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina eCadoni

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Today it is well acknowledged that both nature and nurture play important roles in the genesis of psychopathologies, including drug addiction. Increasing evidence suggests that genetic factors contribute for at least 40-60 % of the variation in liability to drug dependence. Human genetic studies suggest that multiple genes of small effect, rather than single genes, contribute to the genesis of behavioral psychopathologies. Therefore the use of inbred rat strains might provide a valuable tool to identify differences, linked to genotype, important in liability to addiction and related disorders. In this regard, Lewis and Fischer 344 inbred rats have been proposed as a model of genetic vulnerability to drug addiction, given their innate differences in sensitivity to the reinforcing and rewarding effects of drugs of abuse, as well their different responsiveness to stressful stimuli. This review will provide evidence in support of this model for the study of the genetic influence on addiction vulnerability, with particular emphasis to differences in mesolimbic dopamine (DA transmission, rewarding and emotional function. It will be highlighted that Lewis and Fischer 344 rats differ not only in several indices of DA transmission and adaptive changes following repeated drug exposure, but also in hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA axis responsiveness, influencing not only the ability of the individual to cope with stressful events, but also interfering with rewarding and motivational processes, given the influence of corticosteroids on dopamine neurons functionality.Further differences between the two strains, as impulsivity or anxiousness, might contribute to their different proneness to addiction, and likely these features might be linked to their different DA neurotransmission plasticity. Although differences in other neurotransmitter systems might deserve further investigations, results from the reviewed studies might open new vistas in

  13. Enterprise Architecture-Based Risk and Security Modelling and Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, Henk; Quartel, Dick; Kordy, Barbara; Ekstedt, Mathias; Seong Kim, Deng

    2016-01-01

    The growing complexity of organizations and the increasing number of sophisticated cyber attacks asks for a systematic and integral approach to Enterprise Risk and Security Management (ERSM). As enterprise architecture offers the necessary integral perspective, including the business and IT aspects

  14. Are individual based models a suitable approach to estimate population vulnerability? - a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Maria Griebeler

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available European populations of the Large Blue Butterfly Maculinea arion have experienced severe declines in the last decades, especially in the northern part of the species range. This endangered lycaenid butterfly needs two resources for development: flower buds of specific plants (Thymus spp., Origanum vulgare, on which young caterpillars briefly feed, and red ants of the genus Myrmica, whose nests support caterpillars during a prolonged final instar. I present an analytically solvable deterministic model to estimate the vulnerability of populations of M. arion. Results obtained from the sensitivity analysis of this mathematical model (MM are contrasted to the respective results that had been derived from a spatially explicit individual based model (IBM for this butterfly. I demonstrate that details in landscape configuration which are neglected by the MM but are easily taken into consideration by the IBM result in a different degree of intraspecific competition of caterpillars on flower buds and within host ant nests. The resulting differences in mortalities of caterpillars lead to erroneous estimates of the extinction risk of a butterfly population living in habitat with low food plant coverage and low abundance in host ant nests. This observation favors the use of an individual based modeling approach over the deterministic approach at least for the management of this threatened butterfly.

  15. Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Tae-Sung; Li, Fengqing; Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

    2016-01-01

    Global warming is likely leading to species' distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr-1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities.

  16. Finite element modeling and intravascular ultrasound elastography of vulnerable plaques: parameter variation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baldewsing, R.A.; Korte, C.L. de; Schaar, J.A.; Mastik, F.; Steen, A.F.W. van der

    2004-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND GOAL: More than 60% of all myocardial infarction is caused by rupture of a vulnerable plaque. A vulnerable plaque can be described as a large, soft lipid pool covered by a thin fibrous cap. Plaque material composition, geometry, and inflammation caused by infiltration of macrophages

  17. Soil and Water Assessment Tool model predictions of annual maximum pesticide concentrations in high vulnerability watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winchell, Michael F; Peranginangin, Natalia; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Chen, Wenlin

    2018-05-01

    Recent national regulatory assessments of potential pesticide exposure of threatened and endangered species in aquatic habitats have led to increased need for watershed-scale predictions of pesticide concentrations in flowing water bodies. This study was conducted to assess the ability of the uncalibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations in the flowing water bodies of highly vulnerable small- to medium-sized watersheds. The SWAT was applied to 27 watersheds, largely within the midwest corn belt of the United States, ranging from 20 to 386 km 2 , and evaluated using consistent input data sets and an uncalibrated parameterization approach. The watersheds were selected from the Atrazine Ecological Exposure Monitoring Program and the Heidelberg Tributary Loading Program, both of which contain high temporal resolution atrazine sampling data from watersheds with exceptionally high vulnerability to atrazine exposure. The model performance was assessed based upon predictions of annual maximum atrazine concentrations in 1-d and 60-d durations, predictions critical in pesticide-threatened and endangered species risk assessments when evaluating potential acute and chronic exposure to aquatic organisms. The simulation results showed that for nearly half of the watersheds simulated, the uncalibrated SWAT model was able to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations within a narrow range of uncertainty resulting from atrazine application timing patterns. An uncalibrated model's predictive performance is essential for the assessment of pesticide exposure in flowing water bodies, the majority of which have insufficient monitoring data for direct calibration, even in data-rich countries. In situations in which SWAT over- or underpredicted the annual maximum concentrations, the magnitude of the over- or underprediction was commonly less than a factor of 2, indicating that the model and uncalibrated parameterization

  18. An exploratory model of girls' vulnerability to commercial sexual exploitation in prostitution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Joan A

    2011-05-01

    Due to inaccessibility of child victims of commercial sexual exploitation, the majority of emergent research on the problem lacks theoretical framing or sufficient data for quantitative analysis. Drawing from Agnew's general strain theory, this study utilized structural equation modeling to explore: whether caregiver strain is linked to child maltreatment, if experiencing maltreatment is associated with risk-inflating behaviors or sexual denigration of self/others, and if these behavioral and psychosocial dysfunctions are related to vulnerability to commercial sexual exploitation. The proposed model was tested with data from 174 predominately African American women, 12% of whom indicated involvement in prostitution while a minor. Findings revealed child maltreatment worsened with increased caregiver strain. Experiencing child maltreatment was linked to running away, initiating substance use at earlier ages, and higher levels of sexual denigration of self/others. Sexual denigration of self/others was significantly related to the likelihood of prostitution as a minor. The network of variables in the model accounted for 34% of the variance in prostitution as a minor.

  19. Examining global electricity supply vulnerability to climate change using a high-fidelity hydropower dam model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Sean W D; Ng, Jia Yi; Galelli, Stefano

    2017-07-15

    An important and plausible impact of a changing global climate is altered power generation from hydroelectric dams. Here we project 21st century global hydropower production by forcing a coupled, global hydrological and dam model with three General Circulation Model (GCM) projections run under two emissions scenarios. Dams are simulated using a detailed model that accounts for plant specifications, storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry and realistic, optimized operations. We show that the inclusion of these features can have a non-trivial effect on the simulated response of hydropower production to changes in climate. Simulation results highlight substantial uncertainty in the direction of change in globally aggregated hydropower production (~-5 to +5% change in mean global production by the 2080s under a high emissions scenario, depending on GCM). Several clearly impacted hotspots are identified, the most prominent of which encompasses the Mediterranean countries in southern Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East. In this region, hydropower production is projected to be reduced by approximately 40% on average by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario. After accounting for each country's dependence on hydropower for meeting its current electricity demands, the Balkans countries emerge as the most vulnerable (~5-20% loss in total national electricity generation depending on country). On the flipside, a handful of countries in Scandinavia and central Asia are projected to reap a significant increase in total electrical production (~5-15%) without investing in new power generation facilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Pathways to HIV risk and vulnerability among lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgendered methamphetamine users: a multi-cohort gender-based analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Patterson Thomas L; Shoveller Jean A; Wood Evan; Marshall Brandon DL; Montaner Julio SG; Kerr Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Methamphetamine (MA) use continues to be a major public health concern in many urban settings. We sought to assess potential relationships between MA use and individual, social, and structural HIV vulnerabilities among sexual minority (lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgendered) drug users. Methods Beginning in 2005 and ending in 2008, 2109 drug users were enroled into one of three cohort studies in Vancouver, Canada. We analysed longitudinal data from all self-identified sex...

  1. Development of groundwater pesticide exposure modeling scenarios for vulnerable spring and winter wheat-growing areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Lauren; Winchell, Michael; Peranginangin, Natalia; Grant, Shanique

    2017-11-01

    Wheat crops and the major wheat-growing regions of the United States are not included in the 6 crop- and region-specific scenarios developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for exposure modeling with the Pesticide Root Zone Model conceptualized for groundwater (PRZM-GW). The present work augments the current scenarios by defining appropriately vulnerable PRZM-GW scenarios for high-producing spring and winter wheat-growing regions that are appropriate for use in refined pesticide exposure assessments. Initial screening-level modeling was conducted for all wheat areas across the conterminous United States as defined by multiple years of the Cropland Data Layer land-use data set. Soil, weather, groundwater temperature, evaporation depth, and crop growth and management practices were characterized for each wheat area from publicly and nationally available data sets and converted to input parameters for PRZM. Approximately 150 000 unique combinations of weather, soil, and input parameters were simulated with PRZM for an herbicide applied for postemergence weed control in wheat. The resulting postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in a theoretical shallow aquifer were ranked to identify states with the largest regions of relatively vulnerable wheat areas. For these states, input parameters resulting in near 90 th percentile postbreakthrough average concentrations corresponding to significant wheat areas with shallow depth to groundwater formed the basis for 4 new spring wheat scenarios and 4 new winter wheat scenarios to be used in PRZM-GW simulations. Spring wheat scenarios were identified in North Dakota, Montana, Washington, and Texas. Winter wheat scenarios were identified in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Compared to the USEPA's original 6 scenarios, postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in the new scenarios were lower than all but Florida Potato and Georgia Coastal Peanuts of the original scenarios and better

  2. VULNERABILITY OF COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ARMEAN ANDREEA

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In present, the study of vulnerability of companies is increasing in every field due to the unstable economic environment influences. The object of this research is to define and identify vulnerabilities of companies and the establishment of evaluation methods at their level. This article emphasizes the importance and usefulness of one of the best known model in this way, from our point of view, namely Băileşteanu, Negrila Pattern. This pattern covers both external factors and internal ones, that increase vulnerabilities of companies, and fit the companies in which the state of vulnerability are (vitality, viability, vulnerability, high vulnerability, difficulty and high difficulty, with a matrix. The result of the research is that any company belonging to any field, can be analyzed using this model, and assigned to one of the conditions defined within.

  3. GENDER AND POVERTY: SOCIO-PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF FEMALE ROLE MODELS AND VULNERABILITY PROFILES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella RISSOTTO

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The contribution regards an analysis of gender-related role models and their relevance for poverty. Data were gathered using a semi-structured questionnaire. Poverty as a function of gender is interpreted in the present case in the light of the interrelation between economic disadvantages, inherent in the sy stems of integration, an d social exclusion, with special reference to the family and the labour market. From this point of view, the concept of dependence represents a strategic concept that may be broken down into the dimensions of: - economic (income source; - material (non economic help in the management of the family. It will be shown how gender models have a statistically significant weight in the distribution of a greater or lesser degree of dependence. Economic dependence and material dependence may be related back to two empirical typological indexes, wh ich summarize a set of semantically relevant indicators. Also an additional index of economic hardship has been constructed, which also summarizes specific indicators. In addition to gender profiles, the analysis takes into account specific categories of women, focusing attention on subjects that are potentially vulnerable to poverty (elderly women, women with precarious jobs and divorcees defining their specific profiles.

  4. Adaptation to Climate Change in Risk and Vulnerability Analysis on a Municipal Level, a basis for further work; Anpassning till klimatfoeraendringar i risk- och saarbarhetsanalyser paa kommunal nivaa, underlag foer fortsatt arbete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mossberg Sonnek, Karin; Lindberg, Anna; Lindgren, Johan

    2007-12-15

    The aim of Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (RVA) at local authority level in Sweden is to increase the capacity of local authorities to handle crises and to reduce vulnerability in the community. RVA processes could be an appropriate starting-point for discussions on how the community is influenced by climate change and how its effects could be reduced using various adjustment measures. In the report we present four methods: ROSA, MVA, IBERO and the Car Dun AB method. These have all been developed to support Swedish local authority RVA processes. We also present five international frameworks that have been developed by the organisations UNDP, USAID, UKCIP, C-CIARN and CSIRO to help decision-makers and stakeholders to adapt to climate change. Together, these descriptions form a foundation for continuing the work being done within the project Climatools, in which tools are being produced to be used by local authorities in adapting to climate change. In the report, we also discuss the concepts 'risk', 'vulnerability' and 'adaptation' and how analysis of adaptation to climate change has changed in recent years.

  5. Assessment of intrinsic vulnerability of an alluvial aquifer under anthropogenic pressure: cross comparison of 4 index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models within the Biguglia lagoon watershed (Corsica, France).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaunat, Jessy; Huneau, Frédéric; Garel, Emilie; Devos, Alain; Lejeune, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    KEYWORDS: Alluvial aquifer, Vulnerability mapping, Index-based methods, DRASTIC, SINTACS, SI, GOD The geographical position of the Biguglia lagoon watershed south of the Bastia city (80 000 inhabitants), lead to a highly vulnerable hydrosystem setting. This littoral plain is the unique territory available for the urbanisation and for the agriculture activities (cattle breeding). All the activities developed are likely to have a qualitative impact on water infiltration and therefore on groundwater, which is in hydraulic connection with the lagoon system. Beyond this ecological issue, groundwater of this watershed is intensively used as drinking water supply. It appears essential to control the long-term groundwater quality of the Biguglia plain which is the major economic zone of Corsica. Achievement of this issue requires the identification of the areas where the alluvial aquifer is mostly vulnerable to anthropogenic activities. The results given by 4 of the most popular index-based vulnerability mapping methods (DRASTIC, SI, SINTACS and GOD) are compared. The water table, net recharge, aquifer and soils properties, topography, vadose zone and land uses have been precisely mapped and numerically translated in GIS with a 25m precision. 4 final maps were finally compiled according to the weighting factors of each methods. Hydrochemical investigations were also carried out on 30 sampling points (major ions and anthropogenic tracers) to evaluate the effect of anthropogenic activities on groundwater quality and also to validate the results of the vulnerability mapping. A comparison between the parametric models shows a significant agreement between the DRASTIC, SINTACS and SI results (2% to 5% of the total area in very low vulnerability class, 10% to 13% in low vulnerability, 16% to 23% in medium vulnerability, 31% to 53% in high vulnerability and 14% to 23% in very high vulnerability). The two first methods are quite similar, which explains the proximity of the

  6. Application of the GEM Inventory Data Capture Tools for Dynamic Vulnerability Assessment and Recovery Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrucci, Enrica; Bevington, John; Vicini, Alessandro

    2014-05-01

    A set of open-source tools to create building exposure datasets for seismic risk assessment was developed from 2010-13 by the Inventory Data Capture Tools (IDCT) Risk Global Component of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The tools were designed to integrate data derived from remotely-sensed imagery, statistically-sampled in-situ field data of buildings to generate per-building and regional exposure data. A number of software tools were created to aid the development of these data, including mobile data capture tools for in-field structural assessment, and the Spatial Inventory Data Developer (SIDD) for creating "mapping schemes" - statistically-inferred distributions of building stock applied to areas of homogeneous urban land use. These tools were made publically available in January 2014. Exemplar implementations in Europe and Central Asia during the IDCT project highlighted several potential application areas beyond the original scope of the project. These are investigated here. We describe and demonstrate how the GEM-IDCT suite can be used extensively within the framework proposed by the EC-FP7 project SENSUM (Framework to integrate Space-based and in-situ sENSing for dynamic vUlnerability and recovery Monitoring). Specifically, applications in the areas of 1) dynamic vulnerability assessment (pre-event), and 2) recovery monitoring and evaluation (post-event) are discussed. Strategies for using the IDC Tools for these purposes are discussed. The results demonstrate the benefits of using advanced technology tools for data capture, especially in a systematic fashion using the taxonomic standards set by GEM. Originally designed for seismic risk assessment, it is clear the IDCT tools have relevance for multi-hazard risk assessment. When combined with a suitable sampling framework and applied to multi-temporal recovery monitoring, data generated from the tools can reveal spatio-temporal patterns in the quality of recovery activities and resilience trends can be

  7. Vulnerability to omega-3 deprivation in a mouse model of NMDA receptor hypofunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Rehnuma; Trépanier, Marc-Olivier; Milenkovic, Marija; Horsfall, Wendy; Salahpour, Ali; Bazinet, Richard P; Ramsey, Amy J

    2017-01-01

    Several studies have found decreased levels of ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in the brain and blood of schizophrenia patients. Furthermore, dietary ω-3 supplements may improve schizophrenia symptoms and delay the onset of first-episode psychosis. We used an animal model of NMDA receptor hypofunction, NR1KD mice, to understand whether changes in glutamate neurotransmission could lead to changes in brain and serum fatty acids. We further asked whether dietary manipulations of ω-3, either depletion or supplementation, would affect schizophrenia-relevant behaviors of NR1KD mice. We discovered that NR1KD mice have elevated brain levels of ω-6 fatty acids regardless of their diet. While ω-3 supplementation did not improve any of the NR1KD behavioral abnormalities, ω-3 depletion exacerbated their deficits in executive function. Omega-3 depletion also caused extreme mortality among male mutant mice, with 75% mortality rate by 12 weeks of age. Our studies show that alterations in NMDAR function alter serum and brain lipid composition and make the brain more vulnerable to dietary ω-3 deprivation.

  8. A Multi-area Model of a Physical Protection System for a Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon; Yoo, Ho Sik

    2008-01-01

    A physical protection system (PPS) integrates people, procedures and equipment for the protection of assets or facilities against theft, sabotage or other malevolent human attacks. Among critical facilities, nuclear facilities and nuclear weapon sites require the highest level of PPS. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, international communities, including the IAEA, have made substantial efforts to protect nuclear material and nuclear facilities. These efforts include the Nuclear Security Fund established by the IAEA in 2002 and the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism which is launched by the USA and Russia in 2006. Without a regular assessment, the PPS might waste valuable resources on unnecessary protection or, worse yet, fail to provide adequate protection at critical points of a facility. Due to the complexity of protection systems, the assessment usually requires computer modeling techniques. Several Codes were developed to model and analyze a PPS. We also devised and implemented new analysis method and named it as Systematic Analysis of physical Protection Effectiveness (SAPE). A SAPE code consumes much time to analyze a PPS over a large area in detail. It is because SAPE uses meshes of an equal size for the analysis of a 2D map. The analysis is more accurate when the meshes of a smaller size are used. However, the analysis time is roughly proportional to the exponential of the number of meshes. Thus, the speed and accuracy is in a trade-off relation. In the paper, we suggest a multi-area model of a PPS for a vulnerability assessment to solve this problem. Using multi areas with different scales, we can accurately analyze a PPS near a target and can analyze it over a large area rather roughly

  9. Tutorial in biostatistics: competing risks and multi-state models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Putter, H.; Fiocco, M.; Geskus, R. B.

    2007-01-01

    Standard survival data measure the time span from some time origin until the occurrence of one type of event. If several types of events occur, a model describing progression to each of these competing risks is needed. Multi-state models generalize competing risks models by also describing

  10. A multi criteria analog model for assessing the vulnerability of rural catchments to road spills of hazardous substances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siqueira, Hygor Evangelista; Pissarra, Teresa Cristina Tarlé [Departamento de Engenharia Rural, Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Jaboticabal (Brazil); Farias do Valle Junior, Renato [Laboratório de Geoprocessamento, Instituto Federal do Triângulo Mineiro, Campus Uberaba, Uberaba (Brazil); Fernandes, Luis Filipe Sanches [Centro de Investigação e Tecnologias Agroambientais e Biológicas, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Ap 1013, 5001–801 Vila Real (Portugal); Pacheco, Fernando António Leal, E-mail: fpacheco@utad.pt [Centro de Química de Vila Real, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Ap 1013, 5001–801 Vila Real (Portugal)

    2017-05-15

    Road spills of hazardous substances are common in developing countries due to increasing industrialization and traffic accidents, and represent a serious threat to soils and water in catchments. There is abundant literature on equations describing the wash-off of pollutants from roads during a storm event and there are a number of watershed models incorporating those equations in storm water quality algorithms that route runoff and pollution yields through a drainage system towards the catchment outlet. However, methods describing catchment vulnerability to contamination by road spills based solely on biophysical parameters are scarce. These methods could be particularly attractive to managers because they can operate with a limited amount of easily collectable data, while still being able to provide important insights on the areas more prone to contamination within the studied watershed. The purpose of this paper was then to contribute with a new vulnerability model. To accomplish the goal, a selection of medium properties appearing in wash-off equations and routing algorithms were assembled and processed in a parametric framework based on multi criteria analysis to define the watershed vulnerability. However, parameters had to be adapted because wash-off equations and water quality models have been developed to operate primarily in the urban environment while the vulnerability model is meant to run in rural watersheds. The selected parameters were hillside slope, ground roughness (depending on land use), soil permeability (depending on soil type), distance to water courses and stream density. The vulnerability model is a spatially distributed algorithm that was prepared to run under the IDRISI Selva software, a GIS platform capable of handling spatial and alphanumeric data and execute the necessary terrain model, hydrographic and thematic analyses. For illustrative purposes, the vulnerability model was applied to the legally protected Environmental Protection

  11. A multi criteria analog model for assessing the vulnerability of rural catchments to road spills of hazardous substances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siqueira, Hygor Evangelista; Pissarra, Teresa Cristina Tarlé; Farias do Valle Junior, Renato; Fernandes, Luis Filipe Sanches; Pacheco, Fernando António Leal

    2017-01-01

    Road spills of hazardous substances are common in developing countries due to increasing industrialization and traffic accidents, and represent a serious threat to soils and water in catchments. There is abundant literature on equations describing the wash-off of pollutants from roads during a storm event and there are a number of watershed models incorporating those equations in storm water quality algorithms that route runoff and pollution yields through a drainage system towards the catchment outlet. However, methods describing catchment vulnerability to contamination by road spills based solely on biophysical parameters are scarce. These methods could be particularly attractive to managers because they can operate with a limited amount of easily collectable data, while still being able to provide important insights on the areas more prone to contamination within the studied watershed. The purpose of this paper was then to contribute with a new vulnerability model. To accomplish the goal, a selection of medium properties appearing in wash-off equations and routing algorithms were assembled and processed in a parametric framework based on multi criteria analysis to define the watershed vulnerability. However, parameters had to be adapted because wash-off equations and water quality models have been developed to operate primarily in the urban environment while the vulnerability model is meant to run in rural watersheds. The selected parameters were hillside slope, ground roughness (depending on land use), soil permeability (depending on soil type), distance to water courses and stream density. The vulnerability model is a spatially distributed algorithm that was prepared to run under the IDRISI Selva software, a GIS platform capable of handling spatial and alphanumeric data and execute the necessary terrain model, hydrographic and thematic analyses. For illustrative purposes, the vulnerability model was applied to the legally protected Environmental Protection

  12. Applying the natural disasters vulnerability evaluation model to the March 2011 north-east Japan earthquake and tsunami.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo; Yap, Su Fei; Park, Donghyun

    2014-07-01

    Natural hazards have a potentially large impact on economic growth, but measuring their economic impact is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The central objective of this paper is to demonstrate a model--the natural disasters vulnerability evaluation (NDVE) model--that can be used to evaluate the impact of natural hazards on gross national product growth. The model is based on five basic indicators-natural hazards growth rates (αi), the national natural hazards vulnerability rate (ΩT), the natural disaster devastation magnitude rate (Π), the economic desgrowth rate (i.e. shrinkage of the economy) (δ), and the NHV surface. In addition, we apply the NDVE model to the north-east Japan earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 to evaluate its impact on the Japanese economy. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  13. Towards an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts of invasive forest species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Daniel McKenney; John Pedlar; Frank Koch; David Cook

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we provide an overview of an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts associated with non-indigenous forest pest species. This is a broad and important topic given the scale of ecological and economic consequences associated with non-indigenous species in north america and elsewhere. Assessments of risk and impacts remain difficult due to...

  14. A Risk and Prevention Counselor Training Program Model: Theory and Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Michael J.; Nakkula, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    The need for training mental health counselors in risk and prevention is presented, and justification of the development of an innovative and integrative prevention training program is offered. Theoretical underpinnings that connect the counseling discipline to the field of prevention are described. A risk and prevention training model from…

  15. Can green roofs reduce urban heat stress in vulnerable urban communities: A coupled atmospheric and social modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, A.; Woodruff, S.; Budhathoki, M.; Hamlet, A. F.; Fernando, H. J. S.; Chen, F.

    2017-12-01

    Urban areas provide organized, engineered, sociological and economical infrastructure designed to provide a high quality of life, but the implementation and management of urban infrastructure has been a continued challenge. Increasing urbanization, warming climate, as well as anthropogenic heat emissions that accompany urban development generates "stress". This rapidly increasing `urban stress' affects the sustainability of cities, making populations more vulnerable to extreme hazards, such as heat. Cities are beginning to extensively use green roofs as a potential urban heat mitigation strategy. This study explores the potential of green roofs to reduce summertime temperatures in the most vulnerable neighborhoods of the Chicago metropolitan area by combining social vulnerability indices (a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity), and temperatures from mesoscale model. Numerical simulations using urbanized version the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were performed to measure rooftop temperatures, a representative variable for exposure in this study. The WRF simulations were dynamically coupled with a green roof algorithm as a part of urban parameterization within WRF. Specifically, the study examines roof surface temperature with changing green roof fractions and how would they help reduce exposure to heat stress for vulnerable urban communities. This study shows an example of applied research that can directly benefit urban communities and be used by urban planners to evaluate mitigation strategies.

  16. The role of network theory and object-oriented modeling within a framework for the vulnerability analysis of critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eusgeld, Irene; Kroeger, Wolfgang; Sansavini, Giovanni; Schlaepfer, Markus; Zio, Enrico

    2009-01-01

    A framework for the analysis of the vulnerability of critical infrastructures has been proposed by some of the authors. The framework basically consists of two successive stages: (i) a screening analysis for identifying the parts of the critical infrastructure most relevant with respect to its vulnerability and (ii) a detailed modeling of the operational dynamics of the identified parts for gaining insights on the causes and mechanisms responsible for the vulnerability. In this paper, a critical presentation is offered of the results of a set of investigations aimed at evaluating the potentials of (i) using network analysis based on measures of topological interconnection and reliability efficiency, for the screening task; (ii) using object-oriented modeling as the simulation framework to capture the detailed dynamics of the operational scenarios involving the most vulnerable parts of the critical infrastructure as identified by the preceding network analysis. A case study based on the Swiss high-voltage transmission system is considered. The results are cross-compared and evaluated; the needs of further research are defined

  17. Vulnerability of complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishkovski, Igor; Biey, Mario; Kocarev, Ljupco

    2011-01-01

    We consider normalized average edge betweenness of a network as a metric of network vulnerability. We suggest that normalized average edge betweenness together with is relative difference when certain number of nodes and/or edges are removed from the network is a measure of network vulnerability, called vulnerability index. Vulnerability index is calculated for four synthetic networks: Erdős-Rényi (ER) random networks, Barabási-Albert (BA) model of scale-free networks, Watts-Strogatz (WS) model of small-world networks, and geometric random networks. Real-world networks for which vulnerability index is calculated include: two human brain networks, three urban networks, one collaboration network, and two power grid networks. We find that WS model of small-world networks and biological networks (human brain networks) are the most robust networks among all networks studied in the paper.

  18. How to Decide on Modeling Details: Risk and Benefit Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özilgen, Mustafa

    Mathematical models based on thermodynamic, kinetic, heat, and mass transfer analysis are central to this chapter. Microbial growth, death, enzyme inactivation models, and the modeling of material properties, including those pertinent to conduction and convection heating, mass transfer, such as diffusion and convective mass transfer, and thermodynamic properties, such as specific heat, enthalpy, and Gibbs free energy of formation and specific chemical exergy are also needed in this task. The origins, simplifying assumptions, and uses of model equations are discussed in this chapter, together with their benefits. The simplified forms of these models are sometimes referred to as "laws," such as "the first law of thermodynamics" or "Fick's second law." Starting to modeling a study with such "laws" without considering the conditions under which they are valid runs the risk of ending up with erronous conclusions. On the other hand, models started with fundamental concepts and simplified with appropriate considerations may offer explanations for the phenomena which may not be obtained just with measurements or unprocessed experimental data. The discussion presented here is strengthened with case studies and references to the literature.

  19. Rockfall vulnerability assessment for reinforced concrete buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavrouli, O.; Corominas, J.

    2010-10-01

    The vulnerability of buildings to the impact of rockfalls is a topic that has recently attracted increasing attention in the scientific literature. The quantification of the vulnerability, when based on empirical or heuristic approaches requires data recorded from historical rockfalls, which are not always available. This is the reason why appropriate alternatives are required. The use of analytical and numerical models can be one of them. In this paper, a methodology is proposed for the analytical evaluation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete buildings. The vulnerability is included in the risk equation by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock block and the subsequent damage level. The output is a weighted vulnerability that ranges from 0 to 1 and expresses the potential damage that a rock block causes to a building in function of its velocity and size. The vulnerability is calculated by the sum of the products of the probability of block impact on each element of the building and its associated damage state, the latter expressed in relative recovery cost terms. The probability of exceeding a specific damage state such as non-structural, local, partial, extensive or total collapse is also important for the quantification of risk and to this purpose, several sets of fragility curves for various rock diameters and increasing velocities have been prepared. An example is shown for the case of a simple reinforced concrete building and impact energies from 0 to 4075 kJ.

  20. The complex model of risk and progression of AMD estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Akopyan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to develop a method and a statistical model to estimate individual risk of AMD and the risk for progression to advanced AMD using clinical and genetic risk factors.Methods: A statistical risk assessment model was developed using stepwise binary logistic regression analysis. to estimate the population differences in the prevalence of allelic variants of genes and for the development of models adapted to the population of Moscow region genotyping and assessment of the influence of other risk factors was performed in two groups: patients with differ- ent stages of AMD (n = 74, and control group (n = 116. Genetic risk factors included in the study: polymorphisms in the complement system genes (C3 and CFH, genes at 10q26 locus (ARMS2 and HtRA1, polymorphism in the mitochondrial gene Mt-ND2. Clinical risk factors included in the study: age, gender, high body mass index, smoking history.Results: A comprehensive analysis of genetic and clinical risk factors for AMD in the study group was performed. Compiled statis- tical model assessment of individual risk of AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.5%, AUC = 0.76. Risk factors of late AMD, compiled a statistical model describing the probability of late AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.3%, AUC = 0.73. the developed system allows determining the most likely version of the current late AMD: dry or wet.Conclusion: the developed test system and the mathematical algorhythm for determining the risk of AMD, risk of progression to advanced AMD have fair diagnostic informative and promising for use in clinical practice.

  1. Quantitative assessment of key parameters in qualitative vulnerability methods applied in karst systems based on an integrated numerical modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doummar, Joanna; Kassem, Assaad

    2017-04-01

    In the framework of a three-year PEER (USAID/NSF) funded project, flow in a Karst system in Lebanon (Assal) dominated by snow and semi arid conditions was simulated and successfully calibrated using an integrated numerical model (MIKE-She 2016) based on high resolution input data and detailed catchment characterization. Point source infiltration and fast flow pathways were simulated by a bypass function and a high conductive lens respectively. The approach consisted of identifying all the factors used in qualitative vulnerability methods (COP, EPIK, PI, DRASTIC, GOD) applied in karst systems and to assess their influence on recharge signals in the different hydrological karst compartments (Atmosphere, Unsaturated zone and Saturated zone) based on the integrated numerical model. These parameters are usually attributed different weights according to their estimated impact on Groundwater vulnerability. The aim of this work is to quantify the importance of each of these parameters and outline parameters that are not accounted for in standard methods, but that might play a role in the vulnerability of a system. The spatial distribution of the detailed evapotranspiration, infiltration, and recharge signals from atmosphere to unsaturated zone to saturated zone was compared and contrasted among different surface settings and under varying flow conditions (e.g., in varying slopes, land cover, precipitation intensity, and soil properties as well point source infiltration). Furthermore a sensitivity analysis of individual or coupled major parameters allows quantifying their impact on recharge and indirectly on vulnerability. The preliminary analysis yields a new methodology that accounts for most of the factors influencing vulnerability while refining the weights attributed to each one of them, based on a quantitative approach.

  2. Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tian-Mu; Zhang, Shao-Sen; Feng, Jun; Xia, Zhi-Gui; Luo, Chun-Hai; Zeng, Xu-Can; Guo, Xiang-Rui; Lin, Zu-Rui; Zhou, Hong-Ning; Zhou, Shui-Sen

    2018-04-29

    The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China, and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region. A community-based, cross-sectional survey was performed in five villages of Yingjiang county during September 2016. Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to identify asymptomatic infections, and imported cases were identified in each village (between January 2013 and September 2016). A stochastic simulation model (SSM) was used to test the relationship between population mobility and malaria vulnerability, according to the mechanisms of malaria importation. Thirty-two imported cases were identified in the five villages, with a 4-year average of 1 case/year (range: 0-5 cases/year). No parasites were detected in the 353 blood samples from 2016. The median density of malaria vulnerability was 0.012 (range: 0.000-0.033). The average proportion of mobile members of the study population was 32.56% (range: 28.38-71.95%). Most mobile individuals lived indoors at night with mosquito protection. The SSM model fit the investigated data (χ 2  = 0.487, P = 0.485). The average probability of infection in the members of the population that moved to Myanmar was 0.011 (range: 0.0048-0.1585). The values for simulated vulnerability increased with greater population mobility in each village. A high proportion of population mobility was associated with greater malaria vulnerability in the China-Myanmar border region. Mobile population-specific measures should be used to decrease the risk of malaria re-establishment in China.

  3. Tsunami vulnerability assessment in the western coastal belt in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranagalage, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    26th December 2004 tsunami disaster has caused massive loss of life, damage to coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activities in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka. Tsunami vulnerability assessment is a requirement for disaster risk and vulnerability reduction. It plays a major role in identifying the extent and level of vulnerabilities to disasters within the communities. There is a need for a clearer understanding of the disaster risk patterns and factors contributing to it in different parts of the coastal belt. The main objective of this study is to investigate tsunami vulnerability assessment of Moratuwa Municipal council area in Sri Lanka. We have selected Moratuwa area due to considering urbanization pattern and Tsunami hazards of the country. Different data sets such as one-meter resolution LiDAR data, orthophoto, population, housing data and road layer were employed in this study. We employed tsunami vulnerability model for 1796 housing units located there, for a tsunami scenario with a maximum run-up 8 meters. 86% of the total land area affected by the tsunami in 8 meters scenarios. Additionally, building population has been used to estimate population in different vulnerability levels. The result shows that 32% of the buildings have extremely critical vulnerability level, 46% have critical vulnerability level, 22% have high vulnerability level, and 1% have a moderate vulnerability. According to the population estimation model results, 18% reside building with extremely critical vulnerability, 43% with critical vulnerability, 36% with high vulnerability and 3% belong to moderate vulnerability level. The results of the study provide a clear picture of tsunami vulnerability. Outcomes of this analysis can use as a valuable tool for urban planners to assess the risk and extent of disaster risk reduction which could be achieved via suitable mitigation measures to manage the coastal belt in Sri Lanka.

  4. Kernel density surface modelling as a means to identify significant concentrations of vulnerable marine ecosystem indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellen Kenchington

    Full Text Available The United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105, concerning sustainable fisheries in the marine ecosystem, calls for the protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VME from destructive fishing practices. Subsequently, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO produced guidelines for identification of VME indicator species/taxa to assist in the implementation of the resolution, but recommended the development of case-specific operational definitions for their application. We applied kernel density estimation (KDE to research vessel trawl survey data from inside the fishing footprint of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO Regulatory Area in the high seas of the northwest Atlantic to create biomass density surfaces for four VME indicator taxa: large-sized sponges, sea pens, small and large gorgonian corals. These VME indicator taxa were identified previously by NAFO using the fragility, life history characteristics and structural complexity criteria presented by FAO, along with an evaluation of their recovery trajectories. KDE, a non-parametric neighbour-based smoothing function, has been used previously in ecology to identify hotspots, that is, areas of relatively high biomass/abundance. We present a novel approach of examining relative changes in area under polygons created from encircling successive biomass categories on the KDE surface to identify "significant concentrations" of biomass, which we equate to VMEs. This allows identification of the VMEs from the broader distribution of the species in the study area. We provide independent assessments of the VMEs so identified using underwater images, benthic sampling with other gear types (dredges, cores, and/or published species distribution models of probability of occurrence, as available. For each VME indicator taxon we provide a brief review of their ecological function which will be important in future assessments of significant adverse impact on these habitats here

  5. Applying and validating the PTVA-3 Model at the Aeolian Islands, Italy: assessment of the vulnerability of buildings to tsunamis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dall'Osso

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The volcanic archipelago of the Aeolian Islands (Sicily, Italy is included on the UNESCO World Heritage list and is visited by more than 200 000 tourists per year. Due to its geological characteristics, the risk related to volcanic and seismic activity is particularly high. Since 1916 the archipelago has been hit by eight local tsunamis. The most recent and intense of these events happened on 30 December 2002. It was triggered by two successive landslides along the north-western side of the Stromboli volcano (Sciara del Fuoco, which poured approximately 2–3×107 m3 of rocks and debris into the Tyrrhenian Sea. The waves impacted across the whole archipelago, but most of the damage to buildings and infrastructures occurred on the islands of Stromboli (maximum run-up 11 m and Panarea.

    The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of buildings to damage from tsunamis located within the same area inundated by the 2002 event. The assessment is carried out by using the PTVA-3 Model (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment, version 3. The PTVA-3 Model calculates a Relative Vulnerability Index (RVI for every building, based on a set of selected physical and structural attributes. Run-up values within the area inundated by the 2002 tsunami were measured and mapped by the Istituto Italiano di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV and the University of Bologna during field surveys in January 2003. Results of the assessment show that if the same tsunami were to occur today, 54 buildings would be affected in Stromboli, and 5 in Panarea. The overall vulnerability level obtained in this analysis for Stromboli and Panarea are "average"/"low" and "very low", respectively. Nonetheless, 14 buildings in Stromboli are classified as having a "high" or "average" vulnerability. For some buildings, we were able to validate the RVI scores calculated by the PTVA-3 Model through a qualitative comparison with photographs taken by INGV and

  6. Modeling risk and uncertainty in designing reverse logistics problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Nazari Gooran

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Increasing attention to environmental problems and social responsibility lead to appear reverse logistic (RL issues in designing supply chain which, in most recently, has received considerable attention from both academicians and practitioners. In this paper, a multi-product reverse logistic network design model is developed; then a hybrid method including Chance-constrained programming, Genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation, are proposed to solve the developed model. The proposed model is solved for risk-averse and risk-seeking decision makers by conditional value at risk, sum of the excepted value and standard deviation, respectively. Comparisons of the results show that minimizing the costs had no direct relation with the kind of decision makers; however, in the most cases, risk-seeking decision maker gained more return products than risk-averse ones. It is clear that by increasing returned products to the chain, production costs of new products and material will be reduced and also by this act, environmental benefits will be created.

  7. Modelling self-assessed vulnerability to HIV and its associated factors in a HIV-burdened country.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagbamigbe, A F; Lawal, A M; Idemudia, E S

    2017-12-01

    Globally, individuals' self-assessment of vulnerability to HIV infection is important to maintain safer sexual behaviour and reduce risky behaviours. However, determinants of self-perceived risk of HIV infection are not well documented and differ. We assessed the level of self-perceived vulnerability to HIV infection in Nigeria and also identified its risk factors. We explored a recent nationally representative data with self-reported vulnerability ('high', 'low' and 'no risk at all') to HIV infection as the outcome of interest. Data were weighted and association between the outcomes and the risk factors determined. We used simple ordered logit regression to model relationship between the outcome variable and risk factors, and controlled for the significant variables in multiple ordered logistic regression at 5% significance level. About 74% had good knowledge of HIV transmission and 6% had experienced STI recently. The likelihood of assessing oneself as having 'no risk at all' was 50% and for 'high chances' was 1.6%. Self-perceived high risk of HIV was higher among those who recently experienced STI (5.6%) than those who did not (1.7%), and also higher among those who recently engaged in transactional sex and had multiple sexual partners. The odds of good knowledge of HIV transmission on high self-perceived vulnerability to HIV was 19% higher than poor knowledge (OR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.12-1.27). Also, respondents who recently had multiple sexual partners were 72% (OR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.60-1.86) more likely to report self as having high risk. Younger respondents aged 14-19 years had higher odds of 41% (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.29-1.55) to perceive self as having high vulnerability to HIV than older respondents. High vulnerability to HIV infection was reported among younger respondents, those with history of STIS and those who engage in multiple sexual relations. Despite high level of risky sexual behaviour and good knowledge of HIV transmission and prevention

  8. Numerical modeling of ADA system for vulnerable road users protection based on radar and vision sensing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garate, V.R.; Bours, R.C.H.; Kietlinski, K.

    2012-01-01

    The protection of vulnerable road users (VRU) remains one of the most challenging problems for our society and several governmental and consumer organization has set targets to reduce the VRU fatality and injury rates. The automotive industry is, therefore, developing pedestrian and cyclist

  9. Reducing HIV-related risk and mental health problems through a client-centred psychosocial intervention for vulnerable adolescents in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jani, Nrupa; Vu, Lung; Kay, Lynnette; Habtamu, Kassahun; Kalibala, Samuel

    2016-01-01

    Ethiopia is experiencing an increasingly urban HIV epidemic, alongside a rise in urban adolescent migration. Adolescent migrants are often confronted by unique social challenges, including living in a difficult environment, abuse and mental health problems. These issues can increase adolescents' vulnerability to HIV and compromise their capacity to protect themselves and others from HIV. We piloted and assessed the effects of a targeted psychosocial intervention to reduce mental health problems and improve HIV-related outcomes among migrant adolescents in Addis Ababa. A pre- and post-comparison design was used in a cohort of 576 female and 154 male migrant adolescents aged 15 to 18 years in Addis Ababa receiving services from two service delivery organizations, Biruh Tesfa and Retrak. We implemented a three-month client-centred, counsellor-delivered psychosocial intervention, based on findings from formative research among the same target population, to address participants' increased vulnerability to HIV. The intervention package comprised individual, group and creative arts therapy counselling sessions. Key outcome indicators included anxiety, depression, aggressive behaviour, attention problems, social problems, knowledge of HIV, safer sex practices and use of sexual health services. Longitudinal data analysis (McNemar test and random effects regression) was used to assess changes over time in key indicators by gender. For females, aggressive behaviour decreased by 60% (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 0.4 (0.25 to 0.65)) and any mental health problem decreased by 50% (AOR: 0.5 (0.36 to 0.81)) from baseline to end line. In addition, knowledge of HIV increased by 60% (AOR: 1.6 (1.08 to 2.47)), knowledge of a place to test for HIV increased by 70% (AOR: 1.7 (1.12 to 2.51)) and HIV testing increased by 80% (AOR: 1.8 (1.13 to 2.97)). For males, HIV knowledge increased by 110% (AOR: 2.1 (1.1 to 3.94)), knowledge of a place to test for HIV increased by 290% (AOR: 3.9 (1

  10. A Vulnerability-Based, Bottom-up Assessment of Future Riverine Flood Risk Using a Modified Peaks-Over-Threshold Approach and a Physically Based Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knighton, James; Steinschneider, Scott; Walter, M. Todd

    2017-12-01

    There is a chronic disconnection among purely probabilistic flood frequency analysis of flood hazards, flood risks, and hydrological flood mechanisms, which hamper our ability to assess future flood impacts. We present a vulnerability-based approach to estimating riverine flood risk that accommodates a more direct linkage between decision-relevant metrics of risk and the dominant mechanisms that cause riverine flooding. We adapt the conventional peaks-over-threshold (POT) framework to be used with extreme precipitation from different climate processes and rainfall-runoff-based model output. We quantify the probability that at least one adverse hydrologic threshold, potentially defined by stakeholders, will be exceeded within the next N years. This approach allows us to consider flood risk as the summation of risk from separate atmospheric mechanisms, and supports a more direct mapping between hazards and societal outcomes. We perform this analysis within a bottom-up framework to consider the relevance and consequences of information, with varying levels of credibility, on changes to atmospheric patterns driving extreme precipitation events. We demonstrate our proposed approach using a case study for Fall Creek in Ithaca, NY, USA, where we estimate the risk of stakeholder-defined flood metrics from three dominant mechanisms: summer convection, tropical cyclones, and spring rain and snowmelt. Using downscaled climate projections, we determine how flood risk associated with a subset of mechanisms may change in the future, and the resultant shift to annual flood risk. The flood risk approach we propose can provide powerful new insights into future flood threats.

  11. The Impact of Exercise on the Vulnerability of Dopamine Neurons to Cell Death in Animal Models of Parkinson's Disease

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zigmond, Michael J; Smith, Amanda; Liou, Anthony

    2006-01-01

    Parkinson's disease results in part from the loss of dopamine neurons. We hypothesize that exercise reduces the vulnerability of dopamine neurons to neurotoxin exposure, whereas stress increases vulnerability...

  12. The AVuPUR project (Assessing the Vulnerability of Peri-Urban Rivers) : experimental and modelling strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braud, I.; Chancibault, K.; Debionne, S.; Lieme Kouyi, G.; Sarrazin, B.; Jacqueminet, C.

    2009-04-01

    Due to the development of urbanisation and the associated pollutions, peri-urban rivers face an increasing pressure on the receiving waters and an enhancement of floods. In order to limit the risks and define adapted management scenarios, it is important to identify the key factors over which action is possible. In particular, due to the Water Framework Directive, discharge of polluted water into rivers must be limited and actions must be undertaken in order to restore the ecological quality of water. In this context, integrated modelling tools, taking into account anthropogenic effects on the water cycle are interesting as they provide ways to test and evaluate the efficiency of different management scenarios. However improvements are still required to derive tools allowing a continuous and long term modelling of the hydrological cycle in peri-urban areas. The models must take into account the surface heterogeneity (mixture of rural and urbanised areas), and also the natural and artificial water pathways, which influence the water quality. These questions are the focus of the AVuPUR (Assessing the Vulnerability of Peri-Urban Rivers) project. Its aims are 1) to provide a better description of the heterogeneity of peri-urban catchments and of the associated water pathways using field survey, GIS and remote sensing analysis of high resolution images; 2) to provide long term detailed simulation models of the hydrological cycle in peri-urban catchments to increase our understanding of the processes involved; 3) to improve existing hydrological models with a better handling of the urbanised areas in order to derive tools usable by stakeholders; 4) to run long term simulations of the hydrological cycle using past and future land-use and climate scenarios and quantify the impact on the hydrological regime. The project focuses on two experimental catchments: the Yzeron catchment (147 km2), a peri-urban catchment located in the west of Lyon (south-east of France) and the Ch

  13. Dyadic Vulnerability and Risk Profiling for Elder Neglect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulmer, Terry; Paveza, Gregory; VandeWeerd, Carla; Fairchild, Susan; Guadagno, Lisa; Bolton-Blatt, Marguarette; Norman, Robert

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: Neglect of older adults accounts for 60% to 70% of all elder-mistreatment reports made to adult protective services. The purpose of this article is to report data from research, using a risk-and-vulnerability model, that captures the independent contributions of both the elder and the caregiver as they relate to the outcome of neglect.…

  14. GIS-based groundwater vulnerability modelling: A case study of the Witbank, Ermelo and Highveld Coalfields in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakala, E.; Fourie, F.; Gomo, M.; Coetzee, H.

    2018-01-01

    In the last 20 years, the popular mineral systems approach has been used successfully for the exploration of various mineral commodities at various scales owing to its scientific soundness, cost effectiveness and simplicity in mapping the critical processes required for the formation of deposits. In the present study this approach was modified for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability. In terms of the modified approach, water drives the pollution migration processes, with various analogies having been derived from the mineral systems approach. The modified approach is illustrated here by the discussion of a case study of acid mine drainage (AMD) pollution in the Witbank, Ermelo and Highveld coalfields of the Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal Provinces in South Africa. Many AMD cases have been reported in these provinces in recent years and are a cause of concern for local municipalities, mining and environmental agencies. In the Witbank, Ermelo and Highveld coalfields, several areas have been mined out while mining has not yet started in others, hence the need to identify groundwater regions prone to AMD pollution in order to avoid further impacts on the groundwater resources. A knowledge-based fuzzy expert system was built using vulnerability factors (energy sources, ligands sources, pollutant sources, transportation pathways and traps) to generate a groundwater vulnerability model of the coalfields. Highly vulnerable areas were identified in Witbank coalfield and the eastern part of the Ermelo coalfield which are characterised by the presence of AMD sources, good subsurface transport coupled with poor AMD pollution trapping properties. The results from the analysis indicate significant correlations between model values and both groundwater sulphate concentrations as well as pH. This shows that the proposed approach can indeed be used as an alternative to traditional methods of groundwater vulnerability assessment. The methodology only considers the AMD pollution

  15. Bayesian spatial models of the association between interpersonal violence, animal abuse and social vulnerability in São Paulo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baquero, Oswaldo Santos; Ferreira, Fernando; Robis, Marcelo; Neto, José Soares Ferreira; Onell, Jason Ardila

    2018-04-01

    Animal abuse adversely affects animal health and welfare and has been associated with interpersonal violence in studies of individuals. However, if that association also depends on sociocultural contexts and can be detected on a geographic scale, a wider source of data can be used to identify risk areas to support the surveillance of both types of violence. In this study, we evaluated the association between interpersonal violence notifications, animal abuse notifications and an index of social vulnerability in São Paulo City, on a geographic scale, using Bayesian spatial models. The social vulnerability index was a risk factor for the number of interpersonal violence notifications and presented a dose-response pattern. The number of animal abuse notifications was also a risk factor for the number of interpersonal violence notifications, even after controlling for the social vulnerability index. The incorporation of spatial effects produced marked improvements in model performance metrics and allowed the identification of excess risk clusters. Geographical data on notifications on either animal abuse or interpersonal violence should be considered incitement for investigations and interventions of both types of violence. We suggest that notifications of animal abuse be based on an explicit definition and classification, as well as on objective measurements that allow a better understanding of the species and type of abuse involved, the animal health consequences, and the context in which they occurred. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Hagenlocher, Michael; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Kienberger, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Background As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioecon...

  17. Urban vulnerability and climate change in Africa a multidisciplinary approach

    CERN Document Server

    Coly, Adrien; Fohlmeister, Sandra; Gasparini, Paolo; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Kabisch, Sigrun; Kombe, Wilbard; Lindley, Sarah; Simonis, Ingo; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

    2015-01-01

    The book presents results of CLUVA (CLimate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa), a large European Commission funded research project (2010-2013). The project aimed to develop a better understanding of the risks and impacts of climate change related hazards to African cities, assess their vulnerability to these risks, and identify innovative strategies for planning and governance to increase their resilience. For the first time, a systematic and groundbreaking study of this kind was applied in an inter- and trans-disciplinary approach. CLUVA was unique in that it combined: a top-down perspective of climate change modeling with a bottom-up perspective of vulnerability assessment; quantitative approaches from engineering sciences and qualitative approaches of the social sciences; a novel multi-risk modeling methodology; strategic approaches to urban and green infrastructure planning with neighborhood perspectives of adaptation. The book broadly follows the approach taken in the CLUVA project. First, the co...

  18. Mapping of coastal aquifer vulnerable zone in the south west coast of Kanyakumari, South India, using GIS-based DRASTIC model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaliraj, S; Chandrasekar, N; Peter, T Simon; Selvakumar, S; Magesh, N S

    2015-01-01

    The south west coast of Kanyakumari district in Tamil Nadu, India, is significantly affected by seawater intrusion and diffusion of pollutants into the aquifers due to unregulated beach placer mining and other anthropogenic activities. The present study investigates the vulnerability of the coastal aquifers using Geographic Information System (GIS)-based DRASTIC model. The seven DRASTIC parameters have been analyzed using the statistical equation of this model to demarcate the vulnerable zones for aquifer contamination. The vulnerability index map is prepared from the weighted spatial parameters, and an accounting of total index value ranged from 85 to 213. Based on the categorization of vulnerability classes, the high vulnerable zones are found near the beach placer mining areas between Manavalakurichi and Kodimanal coastal stretches. The aquifers associated with settlements and agricultural lands in the middle-eastern part have experienced high vulnerability due to contaminated water bodies. Similarly, the coastal areas of Thengapattinam and Manakudi estuary and around the South Tamaraikulam have also been falling under high vulnerability condition due to backwater and saltpan. In general, the nearshore region except the placer mining zone and the backwater has a moderately vulnerable condition, and the vulnerability index values range from 149 to180. Significantly, the northern and northeastern uplands and some parts of deposition zones in the middle-south coast have been identified as low to no vulnerable conditions. They are structurally controlled by various geological features such as charnockite, garnet biotite gneiss and granites, and sand dunes, respectively. The aquifer vulnerability assessment has been cross-verified by geochemical indicators such as total dissolved solids (TDS), Cl(-), HCO₃(-), and Cl(-)/HCO₃(-) ratio. The high ranges of TDS (1,842--3,736 mg/l) and Cl(-) (1,412--2,112 mg/l) values are well correlated with the observed high

  19. Prey vulnerability limits top-down control and alters reciprocal feedbacks in a subsidized model food web.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William I Atlas

    Full Text Available Resource subsidies increase the productivity of recipient food webs and can affect ecosystem dynamics. Subsidies of prey often support elevated predator biomass which may intensify top-down control and reduce the flow of reciprocal subsidies into adjacent ecosystems. However, top-down control in subsidized food webs may be limited if primary consumers posses morphological or behavioral traits that limit vulnerability to predation. In forested streams, terrestrial prey support high predator biomass creating the potential for strong top-down control, however armored primary consumers often dominate the invertebrate assemblage. Using empirically based simulation models, we tested the response of stream food webs to variations in subsidy magnitude, prey vulnerability, and the presence of two top predators. While terrestrial prey inputs increased predator biomass (+12%, the presence of armored primary consumers inhibited top-down control, and diverted most aquatic energy (∼75% into the riparian forest through aquatic insect emergence. Food webs without armored invertebrates experienced strong trophic cascades, resulting in higher algal (∼50% and detrital (∼1600% biomass, and reduced insect emergence (-90%. These results suggest prey vulnerability can mediate food web responses to subsidies, and that top-down control can be arrested even when predator-invulnerable consumers are uncommon (20% regardless of the level of subsidy.

  20. Remote Sensing-based Models of Soil Vulnerability to Compaction and Erosion from Off-highway Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, M. L.; Webb, R. H.; Norman, L.; Psillas, J.; Rosenberg, A.; Carmichael, S.; Petrakis, R.; Sparks, P.

    2014-12-01

    Intensive off-road vehicle use for immigration, smuggling, and security of the United States-Mexico border has prompted concerns about long-term human impacts on sensitive desert ecosystems. To help managers identify areas susceptible to soil erosion from vehicle disturbances, we developed a series of erosion potential models based on factors from the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), with particular focus on the management factor (P-factor) and vegetation cover (C-factor). To better express the vulnerability of soils to human disturbances, a soil compaction index (applied as the P-factor) was calculated as the difference in saturated hydrologic conductivity (Ks) between disturbed and undisturbed soils, which was then scaled up to remote sensing-based maps of vehicle tracks and digital soils maps. The C-factor was improved using a satellite-based vegetation index, which was better correlated with estimated ground cover (r2 = 0.77) than data derived from regional land cover maps (r2 = 0.06). RUSLE factors were normalized to give equal weight to all contributing factors, which provided more management-specific information on vulnerable areas where vehicle compaction of sensitive soils intersects with steep slopes and low vegetation cover. Resulting spatial data on vulnerability and erosion potential provide land managers with information to identify critically disturbed areas and potential restoration sites where off-road driving should be restricted to reduce further degradation.

  1. Risk and vulnerability to ENSO flooding in the Peruvian Atacama Desert: paleofloods, floodplain development, and agrarian strategies during the late Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magilligan, F. J.; Goldstien, P.

    2011-12-01

    River restoration projects with the goal of restoring a wide range of morphologic and ecologic channel processes and functions have become common. The complex interactions between flow and sediment-transport make it challenging to design river channels that are both self-sustaining and improve ecosystem function. The relative immaturity of the field of river restoration and shortcomings in existing methodologies for evaluating channel designs contribute to this problem, often leading to project failures. The call for increased monitoring of constructed channels to evaluate which restoration techniques do and do not work is ubiquitous and may lead to improved channel restoration projects. However, an alternative approach is to detect project flaws before the channels are built by using numerical models to simulate hydraulic and sediment-transport processes and habitat in the proposed channel (Restoration Design Analysis). Multi-dimensional models provide spatially distributed quantities throughout the project domain that may be used to quantitatively evaluate restoration designs for such important metrics as (1) the change in water-surface elevation which can affect the extent and duration of floodplain reconnection, (2) sediment-transport and morphologic change which can affect the channel stability and long-term maintenance of the design; and (3) habitat changes. These models also provide an efficient way to evaluate such quantities over a range of appropriate discharges including low-probability events which often prove the greatest risk to the long-term stability of restored channels. Currently there are many free and open-source modeling frameworks available for such analysis including iRIC, Delft3D, and TELEMAC. In this presentation we give examples of Restoration Design Analysis for each of the metrics above from projects on the Russian River, CA and the Kootenai River, ID. These examples demonstrate how detailed Restoration Design Analysis can be used to

  2. Redistributing vulnerabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Padmawati, Retna Siwi

    2015-01-01

    It is widely accepted that the social distribution of vulnerability in a given society may turn hazardous events into disasters. This distributional approach draws attention to continuities that explain catastrophes by virtue of the workings of society prior to the event. In this paper, we draw...... attention to the social processes whereby vulnerability is modified and renegotiated during the post-disaster period where resources for disaster alleviation and reconstruction enter local communities. Specifically, we explore the social dynamics of house damage classification in the wake of the 2006...... Central Java earthquake, and we explore relations between citizens and the state during post-disaster house reconstruction. We argue that disastrous outcomes of catastrophic events do not follow pre-existing fault lines of vulnerability in a simple or predictable manner, and that the social process...

  3. Assessing vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellmuth, M.; Kabat, P.

    2003-01-01

    It is in the shantytowns and rural villages of the Third World that floods and droughts strike hardest and deepest. Vulnerability to the vagaries of climate depends not only on location, but, crucially, on the capacity of the victims to cope with the impacts of extreme weather. So, where are the

  4. The Impact of Exercise on the Vulnerability of Dopamine Neurons to Cell Death in Animal Models of Parkinson's Disease

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zigmond, Michael J; Smith, Amanda

    2005-01-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD) results in part from the loss of dopamine (DA) neurons. We hypothesize that exercise reduces the vulnerability of DA neurons to neurotoxin exposure, whereas stress increases vulnerability...

  5. Simulating Pacific Northwest Forest Response to Climate Change: How We Made Model Results Useful for Vulnerability Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Kerns, B. K.; Halofsky, J.

    2014-12-01

    GCM-based climate projections and downscaled climate data proliferate, and there are many climate-aware vegetation models in use by researchers. Yet application of fine-scale DGVM based simulation output in national forest vulnerability assessments is not common, because there are technical, administrative and social barriers for their use by managers and policy makers. As part of a science-management climate change adaptation partnership, we performed simulations of vegetation response to climate change for four national forests in the Blue Mountains of Oregon using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) for use in vulnerability assessments. Our simulation results under business-as-usual scenarios suggest a starkly different future forest conditions for three out of the four national forests in the study area, making their adoption by forest managers a potential challenge. However, using DGVM output to structure discussion of potential vegetation changes provides a suitable framework to discuss the dynamic nature of vegetation change compared to using more commonly available model output (e.g. species distribution models). From the onset, we planned and coordinated our work with national forest managers to maximize the utility and the consideration of the simulation results in planning. Key lessons from this collaboration were: (1) structured and strategic selection of a small number climate change scenarios that capture the range of variability in future conditions simplified results; (2) collecting and integrating data from managers for use in simulations increased support and interest in applying output; (3) a structured, regionally focused, and hierarchical calibration of the DGVM produced well-validated results; (4) simple approaches to quantifying uncertainty in simulation results facilitated communication; and (5) interpretation of model results in a holistic context in relation to multiple lines of evidence produced balanced guidance. This latest

  6. Molecular epidemiology of acute leukemia in children: causal model, interaction of three factors-susceptibility, environmental exposure and vulnerability period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejía-Aranguré, Juan Manuel

    Acute leukemias have a huge morphological, cytogenetic and molecular heterogeneity and genetic polymorphisms associated with susceptibility. Every leukemia presents causal factors associated with the development of the disease. Particularly, when three factors are present, they result in the development of acute leukemia. These phenomena are susceptibility, environmental exposure and a period that, for this model, has been called the period of vulnerability. This framework shows how the concepts of molecular epidemiology have established a reference from which it is more feasible to identify the environmental factors associated with the development of leukemia in children. Subsequently, the arguments show that only susceptible children are likely to develop leukemia once exposed to an environmental factor. For additional exposure, if the child is not susceptible to leukemia, the disease does not develop. In addition, this exposure should occur during a time window when hematopoietic cells and their environment are more vulnerable to such interaction, causing the development of leukemia. This model seeks to predict the time when the leukemia develops and attempts to give a context in which the causality of childhood leukemia should be studied. This information can influence and reduce the risk of a child developing leukemia. Copyright © 2016 Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  7. Hydropower Generation Vulnerability in the Yangtze River in China under Climate Change Scenarios: Analysis Based on the WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming caused by human activities exacerbates the water cycle, changes precipitation features, such as precipitation amount, intensity and time, and raises uncertainties in water resources. This work uses run-off data obtained using climate change models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs and selects the Yangtze River Basin as the research boundary to evaluate and analyse the vulnerability of hydropower generation in 2016–2050 on the basis of the water evaluation and planning model. Results show that the amount of rainfall during 2016–2050 in the Yangtze River Basin is estimated to increase with fluctuations in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, hydropower stations exhibit large fluctuations in generating capacity, which present the trend of an increase after a decrease; in the RCP8.5 scenario, the generating capacity of hydropower stations in the Yangtze River Basin presents a steady increase. Over 50% of the generating capacity in the Yangtze River Basin is produced from the Three Gorges Dam and 10 other hydropower stations. Over 90% is generated in eight river basins, including the Jinsha, Ya-lung and Min Rivers. Therefore, climate change may accelerate changes in the Yangtze River Basin and further lead to vulnerability of hydropower generation.

  8. Assessment of well vulnerability for groundwater source protection based on a solute transport model: a case study from Jilin City, northeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huan, Huan; Wang, Jinsheng; Lai, Desheng; Teng, Yanguo; Zhai, Yuanzheng

    2015-05-01

    Well vulnerability assessment is essential for groundwater source protection. A quantitative approach to assess well vulnerability in a well capture zone is presented, based on forward solute transport modeling. This method was applied to three groundwater source areas (Jiuzhan, Hadawan and Songyuanhada) in Jilin City, northeast China. The ratio of the maximum contaminant concentration at the well to the released concentration at the contamination source ( c max/ c 0) was determined as the well vulnerability indicator. The results indicated that well vulnerability was higher close to the pumping well. The well vulnerability in each groundwater source area was low. Compared with the other two source areas, the cone of depression at Jiuzhan resulted in higher spatial variability of c max/ c 0 and lower minimum c max/ c 0 by three orders of magnitude. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis indicated that the denitrification rate in the aquifer was the most sensitive with respect to well vulnerability. A process to derive a NO3-N concentration at the pumping well is presented, based on determining the maximum nitrate loading limit to satisfy China's drinking-water quality standards. Finally, the advantages, disadvantages and prospects for improving the precision of this well vulnerability assessment approach are discussed.

  9. Modified social ecological model: a tool to guide the assessment of the risks and risk contexts of HIV epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baral, Stefan; Logie, Carmen H; Grosso, Ashley; Wirtz, Andrea L; Beyrer, Chris

    2013-05-17

    Social and structural factors are now well accepted as determinants of HIV vulnerabilities. These factors are representative of social, economic, organizational and political inequities. Associated with an improved understanding of multiple levels of HIV risk has been the recognition of the need to implement multi-level HIV prevention strategies. Prevention sciences research and programming aiming to decrease HIV incidence requires epidemiologic studies to collect data on multiple levels of risk to inform combination HIV prevention packages. Proximal individual-level risks, such as sharing injection devices and unprotected penile-vaginal or penile-anal sex, are necessary in mediating HIV acquisition and transmission. However, higher order social and structural-level risks can facilitate or reduce HIV transmission on population levels. Data characterizing these risks is often far more actionable than characterizing individual-level risks. We propose a modified social ecological model (MSEM) to help visualize multi-level domains of HIV infection risks and guide the development of epidemiologic HIV studies. Such a model may inform research in epidemiology and prevention sciences, particularly for key populations including men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PID), and sex workers. The MSEM builds on existing frameworks by examining multi-level risk contexts for HIV infection and situating individual HIV infection risks within wider network, community, and public policy contexts as well as epidemic stage. The utility of the MSEM is demonstrated with case studies of HIV risk among PID and MSM. The MSEM is a flexible model for guiding epidemiologic studies among key populations at risk for HIV in diverse sociocultural contexts. Successful HIV prevention strategies for key populations require effective integration of evidence-based biomedical, behavioral, and structural interventions. While the focus of epidemiologic studies has traditionally been on

  10. South African risk and vulnerability atlas

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Archer van Garderen, Emma RM

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available positive chill units. 31 Winter (Apr - Sep) CASE STUDY - Global change impacts on agriculture and water: South Africa?s Garden Route 33 7 Global change and human health 35 CASE STUDY - Environmental health: Bridging the gap between traditional... days). Annual (Jan - Dec) 31 Map 6.2 Intermediate future - present (degree days). Accumulated heat units. 31 Annual (Jan - Dec) Map 6.3 Accumulated positive chill units. Winter (Apr - Sep) 31 Map 6.4 Intermediate future - present. Accumulated...

  11. Vulnerable Hunter

    OpenAIRE

    Md.Asha Begum; Y.VishnuPriya; V.ManoranjanBabu; ,O.Srinivasu

    2016-01-01

    This project "VULNERABLE HUNTER" application main aim is to detect risk in our mobile applications. This application contains modules like Fetch Application, Generate Score, Uninstall and Display Graph. Through this application it detects risk so that this application is very useful to smart phone users Now-a-days so many people are using smart phones and people are crazy about new apps. But by installing all the applications into our mobile may reduce its performance. Some apps c...

  12. Testing the Vulnerability and Scar Models of Self-Esteem and Depressive Symptoms from Adolescence to Middle Adulthood and across Generations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiger, Andrea E.; Fend, Helmut A.; Allemand, Mathias

    2015-01-01

    The vulnerability model states that low self-esteem functions as a predictor for the development of depressive symptoms whereas the scar model assumes that these symptoms leave scars in individuals resulting in lower self-esteem. Both models have received empirical support, however, they have only been tested within individuals and not across…

  13. Reduced connectivity and inter-hemispheric symmetry of the sensory system in a rat model of vulnerability to developing depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-Shimol, E; Gass, N; Vollmayr, B; Sartorius, A; Goelman, G

    2015-12-03

    Defining the markers corresponding to a high risk of developing depression in humans would have major clinical significance; however, few studies have been conducted since they are not only complex but also require homogeneous groups. This study compared congenital learned helpless (cLH) rats, selectively bred for high stress sensitivity and learned helplessness (LH) behavior, to congenital non-learned helpless (cNLH) rats that were bred for resistance to uncontrollable stress. Naïve cLH rats show some depression-like behavior but full LH behavior need additional stress, making this model ideal for studying vulnerability to depression. Resting-state functional connectivity obtained from seed correlation analysis was calculated for multiple regions that were selected by anatomy AND by a data-driven approach, independently. Significance was determined by t-statistic AND by permutation analysis, independently. A significant reduction in functional connectivity was observed by both analyses in the cLH rats in the sensory, motor, cingulate, infralimbic, accumbens and the raphe nucleus. These reductions corresponded primarily to reduced inter-hemispheric connectivity. The main reduction however was in the sensory system. It is argued that reduced connectivity and inter-hemispheric connectivity of the sensory system reflects an internal convergence state which may precede other depressive symptomatology and therefore could be used as markers for vulnerability to the development of depression. Copyright © 2015 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Modelling the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards for river basin management using a GIS-based multicriteria decision approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hung-Chih; Wu, Ju-Yu; Hung, Chih-Hsuan

    2017-04-01

    1. Background Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable areas of the world to climate-related hazards and extremes due to rapid urbanization and over-development in hazard-prone areas. It is thus increasingly recognized that the management of land use and reduction of hazard risk are inextricably linked. This is especially critical from the perspective of integrated river basin management. A range of studies has targeted existing vulnerability assessments. However, limited attention has been paid to the cumulative effects of multiple vulnerable factors and their dynamics faced by local communities. This study proposes a novel methodology to access the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and to examine the relationship between the attraction factors relevant to the general process of urbanization and vulnerability variability with a focus on a river basin management unit. 2. Methods and data The methods applied in this study include three steps. First, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) approach, a Cumulative Vulnerability Assessment Framework (CVAF) is built with a goal to characterize and compare the vulnerability to climate-related hazards within river basin regions based on a composition of multiple indicators. We organize these indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard exposure; (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptive capacity. Second, the CVAF is applied by combining a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique with a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess and map the changing cumulative vulnerability, comparing conditions in 1996 and 2006 in Danshui River Basin, Taiwan. Third, to examine the affecting factors of vulnerability changing, we develop a Vulnerability Changing Model (VCM) using four attraction factors to reflect how the process of urban developments leads to vulnerability changing. The factors are transport networks, land uses

  15. Approaching to a model for evaluating of the vulnerability of the vegetable covers of Colombia in a possible climatic change using SIG

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez Rey, Hilda Jeanneth

    2002-01-01

    This technical paper summarizes the gradual thesis Approach to a model for evaluating of the vulnerability of the vegetation covers in Colombia in face of a possible global climate change (Gutierrez, 2001). It present the methodologies and results of the construction of a prospective model using GIS (Geographical Information Systems) for evaluating the vulnerability of the vegetation covers of Colombia, in face of a possible global climate chance. The analysis of the vulnerability of the possible impact on vegetation and for identification of its vulnerability as a consequence of climate change was carried out by application of the method of direct function establishing, recommended by IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1999). An analysis of the displacement of Life Zones of Holdridge was made under a scenario with duplication of the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere and identified vegetation affected by displacement. These results were adjusted to the bioclimatic and biogeographic conditions of the country. The Model of Vulnerability of the Vegetation Covers of Colombia was developed in Spatial Modeler Language, of Arc/lnfo and Erdas Imagine. This model is able to generate the spatial distribution of the climatic variables and Bioclimatic Units, under past, present and future climate scenarios, as well as to evaluate the degree of vulnerability of the vegetation covers of Colombia in face a climatic change. For the improvement of the model of Vulnerability, specially the intermediate products, it was subdivided in three Phases or Subsystems: In the First Phase or Present Subsystem, the sub models generate a Bioclimatic Zonification of the Life Zones of Holdridge, under a currently scenario of Climatic Line Base 1961-1990. In the Second Phase or Subsystem of Climate Change, the sub models develop a Bioclimatic Zonification of the Life Zones of Holdridge, under a future climate Scenario with duplication of the contained of the CO 2 in the atmosphere

  16. Helping air quality managers identify vulnerable communities

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wright, C

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available population exposure and vulnerability risk prioritisation model is proposed for potential use by air quality managers in conjunction with their air quality management plans. The model includes factors such as vulnerability caused by poverty, respiratory...

  17. Vulnerability and risk evaluation of agricultural nitrogen pollution for Hungary's main aquifer using DRASTIC and GLEAMS models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leone, A; Ripa, M N; Uricchio, V; Deák, J; Vargay, Z

    2009-07-01

    In recent years, the significant improvement in point source depuration technologies has highlighted problems regarding, in particular, phosphorus and nitrogen pollution of surface and groundwater caused by agricultural non-point (diffuse) sources (NPS). Therefore, there is an urgent need to determine the relationship between agriculture and chemical and ecological water quality. This is a worldwide problem, but it is particularly relevant in countries, such as Hungary, that have recently become members of the European Community. The Italian Foreign Ministry has financed the PECO (Eastern Europe Countries Project) projects, amongst which is the project that led to the present paper, aimed at agricultural sustainability in Hungary, from the point of view of NPS. Specifically, the aim of the present work has been to study nitrates in Hungary's main aquifer. This study compares a model showing aquifer intrinsic vulnerability to pollution (using the DRASTIC parameter method; Aller et al. [Aller, L., Truman, B., Leher, J.H., Petty, R.J., 1986. DRASTIC: A Standardized System for Evaluating Ground Water Pollution Potential Using Hydrogeologic Settings. US NTIS, Springfield, VA.]) with a field-scale model (GLEAMS; Knisel [Knisel, W.G. (Ed.), 1993. GLEAMS--Groudwater Leaching Effects of Agricultural Management Systems, Version 3.10. University of Georgia, Coastal Plain Experimental Station, Tifton, GA.]) developed to evaluate the effects of agricultural management systems within and through the plant root zone. Specifically, GLEAMS calculates nitrate nitrogen lost by runoff, sediment and leachate. Groundwater monitoring probes were constructed for the project to measure: (i) nitrate content in monitored wells; (ii) tritium (3H) hydrogen radioisotope, as a tool to estimate the recharge conditions of the shallow groundwater; (iii) nitrogen isotope ratio delta15N, since nitrogen of organic and inorganic origin can easily be distinguished. The results obtained are satisfactory

  18. Seeing climate vulnerabilities through lived experience in Madagascar

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-04-21

    Apr 21, 2011 ... ... both vulnerability and strategies for reducing risk, and the project is in the process of producing a range ... of the team's effort to paint a composite map of climate vulnerability and risk to agrarian systems. ... Feeling stressed?

  19. Motherhood, Marketization, and Consumer Vulnerability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davies, Andrea; Prothero, Andrea; Sørensen, Elin

    2010-01-01

    This article explores consumer vulnerability and the role of public policy by focusing on new mothers. Developing the consumer vulnerability model of Baker, Gentry, and Rittenburg, the authors consider how medical contexts, political and legal factors, economic resources, societal prescriptions...... a time of physical and psychological changes in mothers-to-be. This article illustrates that the extended market logic dominating contemporary mothering environments both contributes to and has the potential to exacerbate new mothers’ vulnerability, raising important challenges for public policy, both...

  20. A Bayesian method to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings to catastrophic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lianfa; Wang, Jinfeng; Leung, Hareton; Zhao, Sisi

    2012-06-01

    Vulnerability of human beings exposed to a catastrophic disaster is affected by multiple factors that include hazard intensity, environment, and individual characteristics. The traditional approach to vulnerability assessment, based on the aggregate-area method and unsupervised learning, cannot incorporate spatial information; thus, vulnerability can be only roughly assessed. In this article, we propose Bayesian network (BN) and spatial analysis techniques to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings. In our approach, spatial analysis is leveraged to preprocess the data; for example, kernel density analysis (KDA) and accumulative road cost surface modeling (ARCSM) are employed to quantify the influence of geofeatures on vulnerability and relate such influence to spatial distance. The knowledge- and data-based BN provides a consistent platform to integrate a variety of factors, including those extracted by KDA and ARCSM to model vulnerability uncertainty. We also consider the model's uncertainty and use the Bayesian model average and Occam's Window to average the multiple models obtained by our approach to robust prediction of the risk and vulnerability. We compare our approach with other probabilistic models in the case study of seismic risk and conclude that our approach is a good means to mining spatial data sets for evaluating vulnerability. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Macro-level vulnerable road users crash analysis: A Bayesian joint modeling approach of frequency and proportion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Qing; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung

    2017-10-01

    This study aims at contributing to the literature on pedestrian and bicyclist safety by building on the conventional count regression models to explore exogenous factors affecting pedestrian and bicyclist crashes at the macroscopic level. In the traditional count models, effects of exogenous factors on non-motorist crashes were investigated directly. However, the vulnerable road users' crashes are collisions between vehicles and non-motorists. Thus, the exogenous factors can affect the non-motorist crashes through the non-motorists and vehicle drivers. To accommodate for the potentially different impact of exogenous factors we convert the non-motorist crash counts as the product of total crash counts and proportion of non-motorist crashes and formulate a joint model of the negative binomial (NB) model and the logit model to deal with the two parts, respectively. The formulated joint model is estimated using non-motorist crash data based on the Traffic Analysis Districts (TADs) in Florida. Meanwhile, the traditional NB model is also estimated and compared with the joint model. The result indicates that the joint model provides better data fit and can identify more significant variables. Subsequently, a novel joint screening method is suggested based on the proposed model to identify hot zones for non-motorist crashes. The hot zones of non-motorist crashes are identified and divided into three types: hot zones with more dangerous driving environment only, hot zones with more hazardous walking and cycling conditions only, and hot zones with both. It is expected that the joint model and screening method can help decision makers, transportation officials, and community planners to make more efficient treatments to proactively improve pedestrian and bicyclist safety. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Assessing local population vulnerability to wind energy development with branching process models: an application to wind energy development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Richard A.; Eager, Eric A.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying the impact of anthropogenic development on local populations is important for conservation biology and wildlife management. However, these local populations are often subject to demographic stochasticity because of their small population size. Traditional modeling efforts such as population projection matrices do not consider this source of variation whereas individual-based models, which include demographic stochasticity, are computationally intense and lack analytical tractability. One compromise between approaches is branching process models because they accommodate demographic stochasticity and are easily calculated. These models are known within some sub-fields of probability and mathematical ecology but are not often applied in conservation biology and applied ecology. We applied branching process models to quantitatively compare and prioritize species locally vulnerable to the development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, we examined species vulnerability using branching process models for four representative species: A cave bat (a long-lived, low fecundity species), a tree bat (short-lived, moderate fecundity species), a grassland songbird (a short-lived, high fecundity species), and an eagle (a long-lived, slow maturation species). Wind turbine-induced mortality has been observed for all of these species types, raising conservation concerns. We simulated different mortality rates from wind farms while calculating local extinction probabilities. The longer-lived species types (e.g., cave bats and eagles) had much more pronounced transitions from low extinction risk to high extinction risk than short-lived species types (e.g., tree bats and grassland songbirds). High-offspring-producing species types had a much greater variability in baseline risk of extinction than the lower-offspring-producing species types. Long-lived species types may appear stable until a critical level of incidental mortality occurs. After this threshold, the risk of

  3. Modeling Rare Species Distribution at the Edge: The Case for the Vulnerable Endemic Pyrenean Desman in France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Williams-Tripp

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The endemic Pyrenean Desman (Galemys pyrenaicus is an elusive, rare, and vulnerable species declining over its entire and narrow range (Spain, Portugal, France, and Andorra. The principal set of conservation measures in France is a 5-years National Action Plan based on 25 conservation actions. Priority is given to update its present distribution and develop tools for predictive distribution models. We aim at building the first species distribution model and map for the northern edge of the range of the Desman and confronting the outputs of the model to target conservation efforts in the context of environmental change. Contrasting to former comparable studies, we derive a simpler model emphasizing the importance of factors linked to precipitation and not to the temperature. If temperature is one of the climate change key factors, depicted shrinkage in Desman distribution could be lower or null at the northern (French edge suggesting thus a major role for this northern population in terms of conservation of the species. Finally, we question the applied issue of temporal and spatial transferability for such environmental favourability models when it is made at the edge of the distribution range.

  4. Crossing physical simulations of snow conditions and a geographic model of ski area to assess ski resorts vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    François, Hugues; Spandre, Pierre; Morin, Samuel; George-Marcelpoil, Emmanuelle; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Lejeune, Yves

    2016-04-01

    In order to face climate change, meteorological variability and the recurrent lack of natural snow on the ground, ski resorts adaptation often rely on technical responses. Indeed, since the occurrence of episodes with insufficient snowfalls in the early 1990's, snowmaking has become an ordinary practice of snow management, comparable to grooming, and contributes to optimise the operation of ski resorts. It also participates to the growth of investments and is associated with significant operating costs, and thus represents a new source of vulnerability. The assessment of the actual effects of snowmaking and of snow management practices in general is a real concern for the future of the ski industry. The principal model use to simulate snow conditions in resorts, Ski Sim, has also been moving this way. Its developers introduced an artificial input of snow on ski area to complete natural snowfalls and considered different organisations of ski lifts (lower and upper zones). However the use of a degree-day model prevents them to consider the specific properties of artificial snow and the impact of grooming on the snowpack. A first proof of concept in the French Alps has shown the feasibility and the interest to cross the geographic model of ski areas and the output of the physically-based reanalysis of snow conditions SAFRAN - Crocus (François et al., CRST 2014). Since these initial developments, several ways have been explored to refine our model. A new model of ski areas has been developed. Our representation is now based on gravity derived from a DEM and ski lift localisation. A survey about snow management practices also allowed us to define criteria in order to model snowmaking areas given ski areas properties and tourism infrastructures localisation. We also suggest to revisit the assessment of ski resort viability based on the "one hundred days rule" based on natural snow depth only. Indeed, the impact of snow management must be considered so as to propose

  5. Animal models for addiction medicine: From vulnerable phenotypes to addicted individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nader, Michael A

    2016-01-01

    This chapter highlights the use of several animal models of abuse liability. The overall goal is to describe the most frequently used methods, unconditioned behaviors and conditioned behaviors, and how investigators can use these techniques to compare drugs and to understand the mechanisms of action mediating abuse liability. Thus, for each type of animal model described, research will be highlighted on three general features related to the use of the model: (1) determine abuse potential, (2) treatment efficacy, and (3) brain-related changes associated with drug administration. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Modeling Lake Storage Dynamics to support Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vimal, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Smith, L. C.; Smith, S.; Bowling, L. C.; Pavelsky, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Arctic and Boreal Zone (ABZ) of Canada and Alaska includes vast areas of permafrost, lakes, and wetlands. Permafrost thawing in this area is expected to increase due to the projected rise of temperature caused by climate change. Over the long term, this may reduce overall surface water area, but in the near-term, the opposite is being observed, with rising paludification (lake/wetland expansion). One element of NASA's ABoVE field experiment is observations of lake and wetland extent and surface elevations using NASA's AirSWOT airborne interferometric radar, accompanied by a high-resolution camera. One use of the WSE retrievals will be to constrain model estimates of lake storage dynamics. Here, we compare predictions using the lake dynamics algorithm within the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface scheme. The VIC lake algorithm includes representation of sub-grid topography, where the depth and area of seasonally-flooded areas are modeled as a function of topographic wetness index, basin area, and slope. The topography data used is from a new global digital elevation model, MERIT-DEM. We initially set up VIC at sites with varying permafrost conditions (i.e., no permafrost, discontinuous, continuous) in Saskatoon and Yellowknife, Canada, and Toolik Lake, Alaska. We constrained the uncalibrated model with the WSE at the time of the first ABoVE flight, and quantified the model's ability to predict WSE and ΔWSE during the time of the second flight. Finally, we evaluated the sensitivity of the VIC-lakes model and compared the three permafrost conditions. Our results quantify the sensitivity of surface water to permafrost state across the target sites. Furthermore, our evaluation of the lake modeling framework contributes to the modeling and mapping framework for lake and reservoir storage change evaluation globally as part of the SWOT mission, planned for launch in 2021.

  7. A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

    2017-03-01

    An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

  8. Women's opinion on the justification of physical spousal violence: A quantitative approach to model the most vulnerable households in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, Raaj Kishore; Rahman, Nusma; Kabir, Enamul; Raihan, Farabi

    2017-01-01

    Bangladesh is a culturally conservative nation with limited freedom for women. A number of studies have evaluated intimate partner violence (IPV) and spousal physical violence in Bangladesh; however, the views of women have been rarely discussed in a quantitative manner. Three nationwide surveys in Bangladesh (2007, 2011, and 2014) were analyzed in this study to characterize the most vulnerable households, where women themselves accepted spousal physical violence as a general norm. 31.3%, 31.9% and 28.7% women in the surveys found justification for physical violence in household in 2007, 2011 and 2014 respectively. The binary logistic model showed wealth index, education of both women and their partner, religion, geographical division, decision making freedom and marital age as significant household contributors for women's perspective in all the three years. Women in rich households and the highly educated were found to be 40% and 50% less likely to accept domestic physical violence compared to the poorest and illiterate women. Similarly, women who got married before 18 years were 20% more likely accept physical violence in the family as a norm. Apart from these particular groups (richest, highly educated and married after 18 years), other groups had around 30% acceptance rate of household violence. For any successful attempt to reduce spousal physical violence in the traditional patriarchal society of Bangladesh, interventions must target the most vulnerable households and the geographical areas where women experience spousal violence. Although this paper focuses on women's attitudes, it is important that any intervention scheme should be devised to target both men and women.

  9. Women's opinion on the justification of physical spousal violence: A quantitative approach to model the most vulnerable households in Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raaj Kishore Biswas

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is a culturally conservative nation with limited freedom for women. A number of studies have evaluated intimate partner violence (IPV and spousal physical violence in Bangladesh; however, the views of women have been rarely discussed in a quantitative manner. Three nationwide surveys in Bangladesh (2007, 2011, and 2014 were analyzed in this study to characterize the most vulnerable households, where women themselves accepted spousal physical violence as a general norm. 31.3%, 31.9% and 28.7% women in the surveys found justification for physical violence in household in 2007, 2011 and 2014 respectively. The binary logistic model showed wealth index, education of both women and their partner, religion, geographical division, decision making freedom and marital age as significant household contributors for women's perspective in all the three years. Women in rich households and the highly educated were found to be 40% and 50% less likely to accept domestic physical violence compared to the poorest and illiterate women. Similarly, women who got married before 18 years were 20% more likely accept physical violence in the family as a norm. Apart from these particular groups (richest, highly educated and married after 18 years, other groups had around 30% acceptance rate of household violence. For any successful attempt to reduce spousal physical violence in the traditional patriarchal society of Bangladesh, interventions must target the most vulnerable households and the geographical areas where women experience spousal violence. Although this paper focuses on women's attitudes, it is important that any intervention scheme should be devised to target both men and women.

  10. Transforming vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Patricia S; Zhang, Xinwei Esther; Meleis, Afaf I

    2003-11-01

    Asian American immigrant women engaged in filial caregiving are at special risk for health problems due to complex contextual factors related to immigration, cultural traditions, and role transition. This study examines the experience of two groups of immigrant Asian American women who are caring for older parents. A total of 41 women (22 Chinese American and 19 Filipino American) were interviewed in a study based on Strauss and Corbin's grounded theory methodology. The women were determined to be loyal to their traditional culture, which included strong filial values, while adapting to a new culture. Through the struggle of meeting role expectations and coping with paradox, the women mobilized personal and family resources to transform vulnerability into strength and well-being.

  11. High-resolution integration of water, energy, and climate models to assess electricity grid vulnerabilities to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, M.; Macknick, J.; Tidwell, V. C.; Zagona, E. A.; Magee, T. M.; Bennett, K.; Middleton, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. electricity sector depends on large amounts of water for hydropower generation and cooling thermoelectric power plants. Variability in water quantity and temperature due to climate change could reduce the performance and reliability of individual power plants and of the electric grid as a system. While studies have modeled water usage in power systems planning, few have linked grid operations with physical water constraints or with climate-induced changes in water resources to capture the role of the energy-water nexus in power systems flexibility and adequacy. In addition, many hydrologic and hydropower models have a limited representation of power sector water demands and grid interaction opportunities of demand response and ancillary services. A multi-model framework was developed to integrate and harmonize electricity, water, and climate models, allowing for high-resolution simulation of the spatial, temporal, and physical dynamics of these interacting systems. The San Juan River basin in the Southwestern U.S., which contains thermoelectric power plants, hydropower facilities, and multiple non-energy water demands, was chosen as a case study. Downscaled data from three global climate models and predicted regional water demand changes were implemented in the simulations. The Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model was used to project inflows, ambient air temperature, and humidity in the San Juan River Basin. Resulting river operations, water deliveries, water shortage sharing agreements, new water demands, and hydroelectricity generation at the basin-scale were estimated with RiverWare. The impacts of water availability and temperature on electric grid dispatch, curtailment, cooling water usage, and electricity generation cost were modeled in PLEXOS. Lack of water availability resulting from climate, new water demands, and shortage sharing agreements will require thermoelectric generators to drastically decrease power production, as much as 50

  12. Developing Remote Sensing Products for Monitoring and Modeling Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Land Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Miller, M. E.; Battaglia, M.; Banda, E.; Endres, S.; Currie, W. S.; Elgersma, K. J.; French, N. H. F.; Goldberg, D. E.; Hyndman, D. W.

    2014-12-01

    Spread of invasive plant species in the coastal wetlands of the Great Lakes is degrading wetland habitat, decreasing biodiversity, and decreasing ecosystem services. An understanding of the mechanisms of invasion is crucial to gaining control of this growing threat. To better understand the effects of land use and climatic drivers on the vulnerability of coastal zones to invasion, as well as to develop an understanding of the mechanisms of invasion, research is being conducted that integrates field studies, process-based ecosystem and hydrological models, and remote sensing. Spatial data from remote sensing is needed to parameterize the hydrological model and to test the outputs of the linked models. We will present several new remote sensing products that are providing important physiological, biochemical, and landscape information to parameterize and verify models. This includes a novel hybrid radar-optical technique to delineate stands of invasives, as well as natural wetland cover types; using radar to map seasonally inundated areas not hydrologically connected; and developing new algorithms to estimate leaf area index (LAI) using Landsat. A coastal map delineating wetland types including monocultures of the invaders (Typha spp. and Phragmites austrailis) was created using satellite radar (ALOS PALSAR, 20 m resolution) and optical data (Landsat 5, 30 m resolution) fusion from multiple dates in a Random Forests classifier. These maps provide verification of the integrated model showing areas at high risk of invasion. For parameterizing the hydrological model, maps of seasonal wetness are being developed using spring (wet) imagery and differencing that with summer (dry) imagery to detect the seasonally wet areas. Finally, development of LAI remote sensing high resolution algorithms for uplands and wetlands is underway. LAI algorithms for wetlands have not been previously developed due to the difficulty of a water background. These products are being used to

  13. Towards realistic threat modeling : attack commodification, irrelevant vulnerabilities, and unrealistic assumptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Allodi, L.; Etalle, S.

    2017-01-01

    Current threat models typically consider all possible ways an attacker can penetrate a system and assign probabilities to each path according to some metric (e.g. time-to-compromise). In this paper we discuss how this view hinders the realness of both technical (e.g. attack graphs) and strategic

  14. A threat-vulnerability based risk analysis model for cyber physical system security

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ledwaba, Lehlogonolo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available model. An analysis of the Natanz system shows that, with an actual case security-risk score at Mitigation level 5, the infested facilities barely avoided a situation worse than the one which occurred. The paper concludes with a discussion on the need...

  15. Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ruopu; Merchant, James W

    2013-03-01

    Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. A test of the vulnerability model: temperament and temperament change as predictors of future mental disorders - the TRAILS study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laceulle, Odilia M; Ormel, Johan; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; van Aken, Marcel A G; Nederhof, Esther

    2014-03-01

    This study aimed to test the vulnerability model of the relationship between temperament and mental disorders using a large sample of adolescents from the TRacking Adolescents Individual Lives' Survey (TRAILS). The vulnerability model argues that particular temperaments can place individuals at risk for the development of mental health problems. Importantly, the model may imply that not only baseline temperament predicts mental health problems prospectively, but additionally, that changes in temperament predict corresponding changes in risk for mental health problems. Data were used from 1195 TRAILS participants. Adolescent temperament was assessed both at age 11 and at age 16. Onset of mental disorders between age 16 and 19 was assessed at age 19, by means of the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WHO CIDI). Results showed that temperament at age 11 predicted future mental disorders, thereby providing support for the vulnerability model. Moreover, temperament change predicted future mental disorders above and beyond the effect of basal temperament. For example, an increase in frustration increased the risk of mental disorders proportionally. This study confirms, and extends, the vulnerability model. Consequences of both temperament and temperament change were general (e.g., changes in frustration predicted both internalizing and externalizing disorders) as well as dimension specific (e.g., changes in fear predicted internalizing but not externalizing disorders). These findings confirm previous studies, which showed that mental disorders have both unique and shared underlying temperamental risk factors. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2013 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  17. Cognitive decision errors and organization vulnerabilities in nuclear power plant safety management: Modeling using the TOGA meta-theory framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappelli, M.; Gadomski, A. M.; Sepiellis, M.; Wronikowska, M. W.

    2012-01-01

    In the field of nuclear power plant (NPP) safety modeling, the perception of the role of socio-cognitive engineering (SCE) is continuously increasing. Today, the focus is especially on the identification of human and organization decisional errors caused by operators and managers under high-risk conditions, as evident by analyzing reports on nuclear incidents occurred in the past. At present, the engineering and social safety requirements need to enlarge their domain of interest in such a way to include all possible losses generating events that could be the consequences of an abnormal state of a NPP. Socio-cognitive modeling of Integrated Nuclear Safety Management (INSM) using the TOGA meta-theory has been discussed during the ICCAP 2011 Conference. In this paper, more detailed aspects of the cognitive decision-making and its possible human errors and organizational vulnerability are presented. The formal TOGA-based network model for cognitive decision-making enables to indicate and analyze nodes and arcs in which plant operators and managers errors may appear. The TOGA's multi-level IPK (Information, Preferences, Knowledge) model of abstract intelligent agents (AIAs) is applied. In the NPP context, super-safety approach is also discussed, by taking under consideration unexpected events and managing them from a systemic perspective. As the nature of human errors depends on the specific properties of the decision-maker and the decisional context of operation, a classification of decision-making using IPK is suggested. Several types of initial situations of decision-making useful for the diagnosis of NPP operators and managers errors are considered. The developed models can be used as a basis for applications to NPP educational or engineering simulators to be used for training the NPP executive staff. (authors)

  18. Cognitive decision errors and organization vulnerabilities in nuclear power plant safety management: Modeling using the TOGA meta-theory framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cappelli, M. [UTFISST, ENEA Casaccia, via Anguillarese 301, Rome (Italy); Gadomski, A. M. [ECONA, Centro Interuniversitario Elaborazione Cognitiva Sistemi Naturali e Artificiali, via dei Marsi 47, Rome (Italy); Sepiellis, M. [UTFISST, ENEA Casaccia, via Anguillarese 301, Rome (Italy); Wronikowska, M. W. [UTFISST, ENEA Casaccia, via Anguillarese 301, Rome (Italy); Poznan School of Social Sciences (Poland)

    2012-07-01

    In the field of nuclear power plant (NPP) safety modeling, the perception of the role of socio-cognitive engineering (SCE) is continuously increasing. Today, the focus is especially on the identification of human and organization decisional errors caused by operators and managers under high-risk conditions, as evident by analyzing reports on nuclear incidents occurred in the past. At present, the engineering and social safety requirements need to enlarge their domain of interest in such a way to include all possible losses generating events that could be the consequences of an abnormal state of a NPP. Socio-cognitive modeling of Integrated Nuclear Safety Management (INSM) using the TOGA meta-theory has been discussed during the ICCAP 2011 Conference. In this paper, more detailed aspects of the cognitive decision-making and its possible human errors and organizational vulnerability are presented. The formal TOGA-based network model for cognitive decision-making enables to indicate and analyze nodes and arcs in which plant operators and managers errors may appear. The TOGA's multi-level IPK (Information, Preferences, Knowledge) model of abstract intelligent agents (AIAs) is applied. In the NPP context, super-safety approach is also discussed, by taking under consideration unexpected events and managing them from a systemic perspective. As the nature of human errors depends on the specific properties of the decision-maker and the decisional context of operation, a classification of decision-making using IPK is suggested. Several types of initial situations of decision-making useful for the diagnosis of NPP operators and managers errors are considered. The developed models can be used as a basis for applications to NPP educational or engineering simulators to be used for training the NPP executive staff. (authors)

  19. Exploiting the Vulnerability of Flow Table Overflow in Software-Defined Network: Attack Model, Evaluation, and Defense

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadong Zhou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As the most competitive solution for next-generation network, SDN and its dominant implementation OpenFlow are attracting more and more interests. But besides convenience and flexibility, SDN/OpenFlow also introduces new kinds of limitations and security issues. Of these limitations, the most obvious and maybe the most neglected one is the flow table capacity of SDN/OpenFlow switches. In this paper, we proposed a novel inference attack targeting at SDN/OpenFlow network, which is motivated by the limited flow table capacities of SDN/OpenFlow switches and the following measurable network performance decrease resulting from frequent interactions between data and control plane when the flow table is full. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first proposed inference attack model of this kind for SDN/OpenFlow. We implemented an inference attack framework according to our model and examined its efficiency and accuracy. The evaluation results demonstrate that our framework can infer the network parameters (flow table capacity and usage with an accuracy of 80% or higher. We also proposed two possible defense strategies for the discovered vulnerability, including routing aggregation algorithm and multilevel flow table architecture. These findings give us a deeper understanding of SDN/OpenFlow limitations and serve as guidelines to future improvements of SDN/OpenFlow.

  20. MODELING OF NATURAL VULNERABILITY TO EROSION THROUGH THE GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN MORRO DO CHAPÉU-BA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jocimara Souza Britto Lobão

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available The environment is always in permanent change keeping its proper dynamics with its own rhythms.However, when the people move themselves occupying specific locations, some transformations can take place, constituting threats for the environment and for the manhimself. These changes are related to the enviroment degradation, which has erosion as one of its most significant processes.To understand this dynamic, it is necessary to model the environment in a way that is possible to identify areas with different degrees of natural vulnerability to erosion and thus provide actions that relieve these impacts.The erosive processes are part of the lithosphere modeling system and have its intensity degree more stable or more intense according to the sum of several physical variables (lithology, leveling, landscape, rainfall and hydrography, biological variables (ecosystem- the type of the original and second growth vegetation and anthropogenic variables (the type of human occupation and mining activities.The impact of the rain on the soil has its effects reduced because of the vegetation and so the pedogenesis is benefited and the erosive processes minimized. On the other hand, if there is no vegetation or if this is insuficient, morphogenesis becomes more intense and theerosive processes enhanced.

  1. A statistical model to estimate the local vulnerability to severe weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardowitz, Tobias

    2018-06-01

    We present a spatial analysis of weather-related fire brigade operations in Berlin. By comparing operation occurrences to insured losses for a set of severe weather events we demonstrate the representativeness and usefulness of such data in the analysis of weather impacts on local scales. We investigate factors influencing the local rate of operation occurrence. While depending on multiple factors - which are often not available - we focus on publicly available quantities. These include topographic features, land use information based on satellite data and information on urban structure based on data from the OpenStreetMap project. After identifying suitable predictors such as housing coverage or local density of the road network we set up a statistical model to be able to predict the average occurrence frequency of local fire brigade operations. Such model can be used to determine potential hotspots for weather impacts even in areas or cities where no systematic records are available and can thus serve as a basis for a broad range of tools or applications in emergency management and planning.

  2. Adolescence as a period of vulnerability and intervention in schizophrenia: Insights from the MAM Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Felipe V.; Rincón-Cortés, Millie; Grace, Anthony A.

    2016-01-01

    Adolescence is a time of extensive neuroanatomical, functional and chemical reorganization of the brain, which parallels substantial maturational changes in behavior and cognition. Environmental factors that impinge on the timing of these developmental factors, including stress and drug exposure, increase the risk for psychiatric disorders. Indeed, antecedents to affective and psychotic disorders, which have clinical and pathophysiological overlap, are commonly associated with risk factors during adolescence that predispose to these disorders. In the context of schizophrenia, psychosis typically begins in late adolescence/early adulthood, which has been replicated by animal models. Rats exposed during gestational day (GD) 17 to the mitotoxin methylazoxymethanol acetate (MAM) exhibit behavioral, pharmacological, and anatomical characteristics consistent with an animal model of schizophrenia. Here we provide an overview of adolescent changes within the dopamine system and the PFC and review recent findings regarding the effects of stress and cannabis exposure during the peripubertal period as risk factors for the emergence of schizophrenia-like deficits. Finally, we discuss peripubertal interventions appearing to circumvent the emergence of adult schizophrenia-like deficits. PMID:27235082

  3. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability using DRASTIC Model and GIS : A case study of two sub-districts in Banda Aceh city, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machdar, I.; Zulfikar, T.; Rinaldi, W.; Alfiansyah, Y.

    2018-03-01

    This present study assessed the groundwater vulnerability to protect aquifer in part of Banda Aceh City (the sub-district of Banda Raya and Lueng Bata), Indonesia. The study provides an additional tool for local planner and manager as for managing and protecting groundwater resources. The study area covers 1,164 ha and total population was estimated around 50,000 inhabitants. DRASTIC model in a GIS (Geographic Information System) environment was used in this study to generate vulnerability maps. The maps were created by applied seven criteria as standard in DRASTIC approach, i.e. depth to groundwater, recharge, aquifer type, soil properties, topography, impact of the vadose zone, and hydraulic conductivity. The vulnerability maps provides five categories of vulnerability, i.e. less, low, medium, high, and very high. It was found that the village areas, labelled with the high groundwater pollution potential, are mainly in the area of Lamlagang and the part of Geuce Kaye Jatoe and Geuce Komplek (Banda Raya sub-district) and the part of Batoh and Suka Damai (Lueng Bata sub-distric) This study prompts that the DRASTIC approach is helpful and efficient instrument for assessing groundwater vulnerability. The generated map can be an effective tool for local administrators in groundwater management as well.

  4. Medical Differential Diagnosis (MDD) as the Architectural Framework for a Knowledge Model: A Vulnerability Detection and Threat Identification Methodology for Cyber-Crime and Cyber-Terrorism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conley-Ware, Lakita D.

    2010-01-01

    This research addresses a real world cyberspace problem, where currently no cross industry standard methodology exists. The goal is to develop a model for identification and detection of vulnerabilities and threats of cyber-crime or cyber-terrorism where cyber-technology is the vehicle to commit the criminal or terrorist act (CVCT). This goal was…

  5. Can Regional Climate Models be used in the assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Ana

    2015-04-01

    Extreme meteorological events played an important role in catastrophic occurrences observed in the past over densely populated areas in Brazil. This motived the proposal of an integrated system for analysis and assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events in urban areas that are particularly affected by complex topography. That requires a multi-scale approach, which is centered on a regional modeling system, consisting of a regional (spectral) climate model coupled to a land-surface scheme. This regional modeling system employs a boundary forcing method based on scale-selective bias correction and assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Scale-selective bias correction is a method similar to the spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling that allows internal modes to develop in agreement with the large-scale features, while the precipitation assimilation procedure improves the modeled deep-convection and drives the land-surface scheme variables. Here, the scale-selective bias correction acts only on the rotational part of the wind field, letting the precipitation assimilation procedure to correct moisture convergence, in order to reconstruct South American current climate within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. The hydroclimate reconstruction outputs might eventually produce improved initial conditions for high-resolution numerical integrations in metropolitan regions, generating more reliable short-term precipitation predictions, and providing accurate hidrometeorological variables to higher resolution geomorphological models. Better representation of deep-convection from intermediate scales is relevant when the resolution of the regional modeling system is refined by any method to meet the scale of geomorphological dynamic models of stability and mass movement, assisting in the assessment of risk areas and estimation of terrain stability over complex topography. The reconstruction of past extreme

  6. Quasi-Empirical and Spatio-Temporal Vulnerability Modeling of Environmental Risks Posed to a Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozario, Papia Faustina

    Water quality assessment is crucial in investigating impairment within agricultural watersheds. Seasonal and spatial variations on land can directly affect the adjoining riverine systems. Studies have revealed that agricultural activities are often major contributors to altering water quality of surface waters. A common means of addressing this issue is through the establishment and monitoring the health of riparian vegetation buffers along those areas of stream channels that would be most susceptible to the threat. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) offer a means by which impaired areas can be identified, so that subsequent action toward the establishment of riparian zones can be taken. Modeling the size and rate of land use and land cover (LULC) change is an effective method of projecting localized impairment. This study presents an integrated model utilizing Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, and geospatial analyses to address areas of impairment within the Pipestem Creek watershed, a part of the Missouri Watershed James Sub-region of North Dakota, USA. The rate and direction of LULC change was analyzed through this model and its impact on the ambient water and soil quality was studied. Tasseled Cap Greenness Index (TCGI) was used to determine the loss of forested land within the watershed from 1976 to 2015. Research results validated temporal and spatial relations of LULC dynamics to nutrient concentrations especially those that would be noted at the mouth of the watershed. It was found that the levels of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) were much higher for the years 2014 to 2016 with a discernible increased localized alkalizing effect within the watershed. Fallow areas were seen to produce significant amounts of sediment loads from the sub-watershed. LULC distribution from 2007 to 2015 show that it is possible to project future land use change patterns. About 89.90% likelihood of increment in

  7. GIS-based Spatial Multi-criteria Analysis: A vulnerability Assessment Model for the Protected Areas of Vietnam. GI_Forum|GI_Forum 2015 – Geospatial Minds for Society|

    OpenAIRE

    Nghiem, Quynh Huong

    2016-01-01

    The establishment and management of protected areas has become a universally accepted way to conserve biodiversity, and the wide range of goods and services they offer. Using the environmental vulnerability index (EVI), devised by the South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) as the theoretical framework, a vulnerability assessment model was developed and used to assess the vulnerability of Bach Ma National Park. The model utilizes s...

  8. Applicability of vulnerability maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersen, L.J.; Gosk, E.

    1989-01-01

    A number of aspects to vulnerability maps are discussed: the vulnerability concept, mapping purposes, possible users, and applicability of vulnerability maps. Problems associated with general-type vulnerability mapping, including large-scale maps, universal pollutant, and universal pollution scenario are also discussed. An alternative approach to vulnerability assessment - specific vulnerability mapping for limited areas, specific pollutant, and predefined pollution scenario - is suggested. A simplification of the vulnerability concept is proposed in order to make vulnerability mapping more objective and by this means more comparable. An extension of the vulnerability concept to the rest of the hydrogeological cycle (lakes, rivers, and the sea) is proposed. Some recommendations regarding future activities are given

  9. The semi-Arid integrated model (SIM), a regional integrated model assessing water availability, vulnerability, of ecossytems and society in NE-Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krol, Martinus S.; Jaeger, A.; Bronstert, A.; Krywkow, Jorg

    2001-01-01

    Northeastern Brazil, an example of vulnerable semi-arid regions on the earth, is characterised by water scarcity and vulnerability of natural resources, pronounced climatic variability and social stress situations. Integrated studies involving hydrology, ecology, meteorology, climatology, pedology,

  10. Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

    2016-05-01

    Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Modeling of drug and drug-encapsulated nanoparticle transport in patient-specific coronary artery walls to treat vulnerable plaques

    KAUST Repository

    Hossain, Shaolie S.; Hossainy, Syed F A; Bazilevs, Yuri; Calo, Victor M.; Hughes, Thomas Jr R

    2010-01-01

    The main objective of this work is to develop computational tools to support the design of a catheter-based local drug delivery system that uses nanoparticles as drug carriers in order to treat vulnerable plaques and diffuse atherosclerotic disease.

  12. The Impact of Exercise on the Vulnerability of Dopamine Neurons to Cell Death in Animal Models of Parkinson's Disease

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zpgmond, Michael J; Smith, Amanda; Liou, Anthony

    2007-01-01

    Parkinson's disease results in part from the loss of dopamine neurons. We hypothesize that exercise reduces the vulnerability of dopamine neurons to neurotoxin exposure, which is modulated by stress...

  13. Testing a "content meets process" model of depression vulnerability and rumination: Exploring the moderating role of set-shifting deficits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergara-Lopez, Chrystal; Lopez-Vergara, Hector I; Roberts, John E

    2016-03-01

    MacCoon and Newman's (2006) "content meets process" model posits that deficits in cognitive control make it difficult to disengage from negative cognitions caused by a negative cognitive style (NCS). The present study examined if the interactive effect of cognitive set-shifting abilities and NCS predicts rumination and past history of depression. Participants were 90 previously depressed individuals and 95 never depressed individuals. We administered three laboratory tasks that assess set-shifting: the Wisconsin Card-Sorting Task, the Emotional Card-Sorting Task, and the Internal Switch Task, and self-report measures of NCS and rumination. Shifting ability in the context of emotional distractors moderated the association between NCS and depressive rumination. Although previously depressed individuals had more NCS and higher trait rumination relative to never depressed individuals, shifting ability did not moderate the association between NCS and depression history. The cross-sectional correlational design cannot address the causal direction of effects. It is also not clear whether findings will generalize beyond college students. NCS was elevated in previously depressed individuals consistent with its theoretical role as trait vulnerability to the disorder. Furthermore, NCS may be particularly likely to trigger rumination among individuals with poor capacity for cognitive control in the context of emotional distraction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Is procrastination a vulnerability factor for hypertension and cardiovascular disease? Testing an extension of the procrastination-health model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirois, Fuschia M

    2015-06-01

    Personality is an important epidemiological factor for understanding health outcomes. This study investigated the associations of trait procrastination with hypertension and cardiovascular disease (HT/CVD) and maladaptive coping by testing an extension of the procrastination-health model among individuals with and without HT/CVD. Individuals with self-reported HT/CVD (N = 182) and healthy controls (N = 564), from a community sample, completed an online survey including measures of personality, coping, and health outcomes. Logistic regression analysis controlling for demographic and higher order personality factors found that older age, lower education level and higher procrastination scores were associated with HT/CVD. Moderated mediation analyses with bootstrapping revealed that procrastination was more strongly associated with maladaptive coping behaviours in participants with HT/CVD than the healthy controls, and the indirect effects on stress through maladaptive coping were larger for the HT/CVD sample. Results suggest procrastination is a vulnerability factor for poor adjustment to and management of HT/CVD.

  15. Southern African Coastal vulnerability assessment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rautenbach, C

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available or business. The CSIR coastal systems group uses specialist skills in coastal engineering, geographic engineering systems and numerical modelling to assess and map vulnerable coastal ecosystems to develop specific adaptation measures and coastal protection...

  16. An assessment of coastal vulnerability for the South African coast ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Coastal vulnerability is the degree to which a coastal system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change. One of the most widely used methods in assessing risk and vulnerability of coastlines on a regional scale includes the calculation of vulnerability indices and presenting these results on a ...

  17. Water security, risk and economic growth: lessons from a dynamical systems model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadson, Simon; Hall, Jim; Garrick, Dustin; Sadoff, Claudia; Grey, David; Whittington, Dale

    2016-04-01

    Investments in the physical infrastructure, human capital, and institutions needed for water resources management have been a noteworthy feature in the development of most civilisations. These investments affect the economy in two distinct ways: (i) by improving the factor productivity of water in multiple sectors of the economy, especially those that are water intensive such as agriculture and energy; and (ii) by reducing the acute and chronic harmful effects of water-related hazards like floods, droughts, and water-related diseases. The need for capital investment to mitigate these risks in order to promote economic growth is widely acknowledged, but prior work to conceptualise the relationship between water-related risks and economic growth has focused on the productive and harmful roles of water in the economy independently. Here the two influences are combined using a simple, dynamical model of water-related investment, risk, and growth at the national level. The model suggests the existence of a context-specific threshold above which growth proceeds along an 'S'-curve. In many cases there is a requirement for initial investment in water-related assets to enable growth. Below the threshold it is possible for a poverty trap to arise. The presence and location of the poverty trap is context-specific and depends on the relative exposure of productive water-related assets to risk, compared with risks faced by assets in the wider economy. Exogenous changes in the level of water-related risk (through, for example, climate and land cover change) can potentially push an economy away from a growth path towards a poverty trap. These results illustrate the value of accounting for environmental risk in models of economic growth and may offer guidance in the design of robust policies for investment in water-related productive assets to manage risk, particularly in the face of global and regional environmental change.

  18. A Vulnerability Evaluation of the Phreatic Water in the Plain Area of the Junggar Basin, Xinjiang Based on the VDEAL Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruiliang Jia

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A VDEAL (V is the lithology of the vadose zone, D is the groundwater depth, E is the degree of groundwater exploitation, A is the aquifer characteristics and L is the land use pattern. model, which is suitable for a vulnerability evaluation of the groundwater in arid inland areas, and that is based on the GOD (G is the groundwater status, O is overburden feature and D is groundwater depth method and DRASTIC (D is the depth of water-table, R is the net recharge, A is the aquifer media, S is the soil media, T is the topography, I is the impact of the vadose and C is the conductivity of the aquifer. model is proposed in this paper. Five indicators were selected by reference to the DRAV (D is the depth of water-table, R is the net recharge, A is the aquifer media and V is the impact of the vadose. and VLDA (V is the lithology of the vadose zone , L is the land use pattern, D is the groundwater depth and A is the aquifer characteristics and. models, namely, the lithology of the vadose zone (V, the groundwater depth (D, the degree of groundwater exploitation (E, the aquifer characteristics (A and the land use pattern (L. According to monitoring data from 2003 and 2011, the variations of phreatic water quality in the plain area of the Junggar Basin were divided into three types: the water quality may have deteriorated, be unchanged or improved. Four groups of indicator weights were configured to calculate the vulnerability index using the VDEAL model. The changes of phreatic water quality were then compared against the vulnerability index. The normalized weights of V, D, E, A, and L were respectively 0.15, 0.25, 0.10, 0.10, and 0.40; this is according to the principle that the sampling sites of deteriorated water quality are generally distributed in a high-vulnerability region, and the sites of unchanged and improved water quality are distributed in middle vulnerability, low vulnerability and invulnerable regions. The evaluation results of phreatic

  19. Field Validation of Habitat Suitability Models for Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems in the South Pacific Ocean: Implications for the use of Broad-scale Models in Fisheries Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, O. F.; Guinotte, J. M.; Clark, M. R.; Rowden, A. A.; Mormede, S.; Davies, A. J.; Bowden, D.

    2016-02-01

    Spatial management of vulnerable marine ecosystems requires accurate knowledge of their distribution. Predictive habitat suitability modelling, using species presence data and a suite of environmental predictor variables, has emerged as a useful tool for inferring distributions outside of known areas. However, validation of model predictions is typically performed with non-independent data. In this study, we describe the results of habitat suitability models constructed for four deep-sea reef-forming coral species across a large region of the South Pacific Ocean using MaxEnt and Boosted Regression Tree modelling approaches. In order to validate model predictions we conducted a photographic survey on a set of seamounts in an un-sampled area east of New Zealand. The likelihood of habitat suitable for reef forming corals on these seamounts was predicted to be variable, but very high in some regions, particularly where levels of aragonite saturation, dissolved oxygen, and particulate organic carbon were optimal. However, the observed frequency of coral occurrence in analyses of survey photographic data was much lower than expected, and patterns of observed versus predicted coral distribution were not highly correlated. The poor performance of these broad-scale models is attributed to lack of recorded species absences to inform the models, low precision of global bathymetry models, and lack of data on the geomorphology and substrate of the seamounts at scales appropriate to the modelled taxa. This demonstrates the need to use caution when interpreting and applying broad-scale, presence-only model results for fisheries management and conservation planning in data poor areas of the deep sea. Future improvements in the predictive performance of broad-scale models will rely on the continued advancement in modelling of environmental predictor variables, refinements in modelling approaches to deal with missing or biased inputs, and incorporation of true absence data.

  20. Vulnerability of the economy to the potential disturbances of energy supply: A logic-based model with application to the case of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnansounou, Edgard; Dong Jun

    2010-01-01

    The disturbances of energy supply that may result from both external and domestic events create a significant threat for national economy due to potential impacts on the productivity, employment and overall economic growth. Building scenarios of the economy's vulnerability to these disturbances is delicate because of the significant number of interrelated factors that should be taken into consideration. In this paper, a logic-based model (LBM) is developed, which allows for defining, exploring and assessing the determinants and the indicators of the economy's vulnerability related to the energy supply disturbances within a coherent scenarios assessment framework. The proposed model is illustrated with the case of China. After developing the general framework, three particular scenarios are investigated. Based on the case study, the performance and limitations of the model are analyzed, and its ability to evaluate national energy policies is discussed. Finally, some recommendations for further improvements are made.

  1. Vulnerability of the economy to the potential disturbances of energy supply. A logic-based model with application to the case of China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gnansounou, Edgard [Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), Station 18, CH-1015, Lausanne (Switzerland); Dong, Jun [North China Electric Power University, 102206 Beijing (China)

    2010-06-15

    The disturbances of energy supply that may result from both external and domestic events create a significant threat for national economy due to potential impacts on the productivity, employment and overall economic growth. Building scenarios of the economy's vulnerability to these disturbances is delicate because of the significant number of interrelated factors that should be taken into consideration. In this paper, a logic-based model (LBM) is developed, which allows for defining, exploring and assessing the determinants and the indicators of the economy's vulnerability related to the energy supply disturbances within a coherent scenarios assessment framework. The proposed model is illustrated with the case of China. After developing the general framework, three particular scenarios are investigated. Based on the case study, the performance and limitations of the model are analyzed, and its ability to evaluate national energy policies is discussed. Finally, some recommendations for further improvements are made. (author)

  2. Vulnerability of the economy to the potential disturbances of energy supply: A logic-based model with application to the case of China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gnansounou, Edgard, E-mail: edgard.gnansounou@epfl.c [Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), Station 18, CH-1015, Lausanne (Switzerland); Dong Jun [North China Electric Power University, 102206 Beijing (China)

    2010-06-15

    The disturbances of energy supply that may result from both external and domestic events create a significant threat for national economy due to potential impacts on the productivity, employment and overall economic growth. Building scenarios of the economy's vulnerability to these disturbances is delicate because of the significant number of interrelated factors that should be taken into consideration. In this paper, a logic-based model (LBM) is developed, which allows for defining, exploring and assessing the determinants and the indicators of the economy's vulnerability related to the energy supply disturbances within a coherent scenarios assessment framework. The proposed model is illustrated with the case of China. After developing the general framework, three particular scenarios are investigated. Based on the case study, the performance and limitations of the model are analyzed, and its ability to evaluate national energy policies is discussed. Finally, some recommendations for further improvements are made.

  3. Water security, risk, and economic growth: Insights from a dynamical systems model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadson, Simon; Hall, Jim W.; Garrick, Dustin; Sadoff, Claudia; Grey, David; Whittington, Dale

    2017-08-01

    Investments in the physical infrastructure, human capital, and institutions needed for water resources management have been noteworthy in the development of most civilizations. These investments affect the economy in two distinct ways: (i) by improving the factor productivity of water in multiple economic sectors, especially those that are water intensive such as agriculture and energy and (ii) by reducing acute and chronic harmful effects of water-related hazards like floods, droughts, and water-related diseases. The need for capital investment to mitigate risks and promote economic growth is widely acknowledged, but prior conceptual work on the relationship between water-related investments and economic growth has focused on the productive and harmful roles of water in the economy independently. Here the two influences are combined using a simple, dynamical systems model of water-related investment, risk, and growth. In cases where initial water security is low, initial investment in water-related assets enables growth. Without such investment, losses due to water-related hazards exert a drag on economic growth and may create a poverty trap. The presence and location of the poverty trap is context-specific and depends on the exposure of productive water-related assets to water-related risk. Exogenous changes in water-related risk can potentially push an economy away from a growth path toward a poverty trap. Our investigation shows that an inverted-U-shaped investment relation between the level of investment in water security and the current level of water security leads to faster rates of growth than the alternatives that we consider here, and that this relation is responsible for the "S"-curve that is posited in the literature. These results illustrate the importance of accounting for environmental and health risks in economic models and offer insights for the design of robust policies for investment in water-related productive assets to manage risk, in the face

  4. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to nitrates from agricultural sources using a GIS-compatible logic multicriteria model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebolledo, Boris; Gil, Antonia; Flotats, Xavier; Sánchez, José Ángel

    2016-04-15

    In the present study an overlay method to assess groundwater vulnerability is proposed. This new method based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) was developed and validated using an appropriate case study in Aragon area (NE Spain). The Vulnerability Index to Nitrates from Agricultural Sources (VINAS) incorporates a novel Logic Scoring of Preferences (LSP) approach, and it has been developed using public geographic information from the European Union. VINAS-LSP identifies areas with five categories of vulnerability, taking into account the hydrogeological and environmental characteristics of the territory as a whole. The resulting LSP map is a regional screening tool that can provide guidance on the potential risk of nitrate pollution, as well as highlight areas where specific research and farming planning policies are required. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. The Impact of Privacy Concerns and Perceived Vulnerability to Risks on Users Privacy Protection Behaviors on SNS: A Structural Equation Model

    OpenAIRE

    Noora Sami Al-Saqer; Mohamed E. Seliaman

    2016-01-01

    This research paper investigates Saudi users’ awareness levels about privacy policies in Social Networking Sites (SNSs), their privacy concerns and their privacy protection measures. For this purpose, a research model that consists of five main constructs namely information privacy concern, awareness level of privacy policies of social networking sites, perceived vulnerability to privacy risks, perceived response efficacy, and privacy protecting behavior was developed. An online survey questi...

  6. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2017-06-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  7. Vulnerability to shocks in the global seafood trade network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gephart, Jessica A.; Rovenskaya, Elena; Dieckmann, Ulf; Pace, Michael L.; Brännström, Åke

    2016-03-01

    Trade can allow countries to overcome local or regional losses (shocks) to their food supply, but reliance on international food trade also exposes countries to risks from external perturbations. Countries that are nutritionally or economically dependent on international trade of a commodity may be adversely affected by such shocks. While exposure to shocks has been studied in financial markets, communication networks, and some infrastructure systems, it has received less attention in food-trade networks. Here, we develop a forward shock-propagation model to quantify how trade flows are redistributed under a range of shock scenarios and assess the food-security outcomes by comparing changes in national fish supplies to indices of each country’s nutritional fish dependency. Shock propagation and distribution among regions are modeled on a network of historical bilateral seafood trade data from UN Comtrade using 205 reporting territories grouped into 18 regions. In our model exposure to shocks increases with total imports and the number of import partners. We find that Central and West Africa are the most vulnerable to shocks, with their vulnerability increasing when a willingness-to-pay proxy is included. These findings suggest that countries can reduce their overall vulnerability to shocks by reducing reliance on imports and diversifying food sources. As international seafood trade grows, identifying these types of potential risks and vulnerabilities is important to build a more resilient food system.

  8. Paternal genetic contribution influences fetal vulnerability to maternal alcohol consumption in a rat model of fetal alcohol spectrum disorder.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura J Sittig

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Fetal alcohol exposure causes in the offspring a collection of permanent physiological and neuropsychological deficits collectively termed Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD. The timing and amount of exposure cannot fully explain the substantial variability among affected individuals, pointing to genetic influences that mediate fetal vulnerability. However, the aspects of vulnerability that depend on the mother, the father, or both, are not known.Using the outbred Sprague-Dawley (SD and inbred Brown Norway (BN rat strains as well as their reciprocal crosses, we administered ethanol (E, pair-fed (PF, or control (C diets to the pregnant dams. The dams' plasma levels of free thyroxine (fT4, triiodothyronine (T3, free T3 (fT3, and thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH were measured to elucidate potential differences in maternal thyroid hormonal environment, which affects specific aspects of FASD. We then compared alcohol-exposed, pair fed, and control offspring of each fetal strain on gestational day 21 (G21 to identify maternal and paternal genetic effects on bodyweight and placental weight of male and female fetuses.SD and BN dams exhibited different baseline hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid function. Moreover, the thyroid function of SD dams was more severely affected by alcohol consumption while that of BN dams was relatively resistant. This novel finding suggests that genetic differences in maternal thyroid function are one source of maternal genetic effects on fetal vulnerability to FASD. The fetal vulnerability to decreased bodyweight after alcohol exposure depended on the genetic contribution of both parents, not only maternal contribution as previously thought. In contrast, the effect of maternal alcohol consumption on placental weight was consistent and not strain-dependent. Interestingly, placental weight in fetuses with different paternal genetic contributions exhibited opposite responses to caloric restriction (pair feeding. In summary

  9. The explicit treatment of model uncertainties in the presence of aleatory and epistemic parameter uncertainties in risk and reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Yang, Joon Eon

    2003-01-01

    In the risk and reliability analysis of complex technological systems, the primary concern of formal uncertainty analysis is to understand why uncertainties arise, and to evaluate how they impact the results of the analysis. In recent times, many of the uncertainty analyses have focused on parameters of the risk and reliability analysis models, whose values are uncertain in an aleatory or an epistemic way. As the field of parametric uncertainty analysis matures, however, more attention is being paid to the explicit treatment of uncertainties that are addressed in the predictive model itself as well as the accuracy of the predictive model. The essential steps for evaluating impacts of these model uncertainties in the presence of parameter uncertainties are to determine rigorously various sources of uncertainties to be addressed in an underlying model itself and in turn model parameters, based on our state-of-knowledge and relevant evidence. Answering clearly the question of how to characterize and treat explicitly the forgoing different sources of uncertainty is particularly important for practical aspects such as risk and reliability optimization of systems as well as more transparent risk information and decision-making under various uncertainties. The main purpose of this paper is to provide practical guidance for quantitatively treating various model uncertainties that would often be encountered in the risk and reliability modeling process of complex technological systems

  10. Vulnerabilidade socioambiental na metrópole paulistana: uma análise sociodemográfica das situações de sobreposição espacial de problemas e riscos sociais e ambientais Socio-environmental vulnerability in the Metropolis of São Paulo, Brazil: a socio-demographic analysis of spatial coexistence of social and environmental risks and problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Humberto Prates da Fonseca Alves

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho procura identificar e caracterizar populações em situação de vulnerabilidade socioambiental em São Paulo, através da construção de indicadores ambientais, em escala desagregada (setores censitários do IBGE. A vulnerabilidade socioambiental está sendo definida como a coexistência ou sobreposição espacial entre grupos populacionais muito pobres e com alta privação (vulnerabilidade social e áreas de risco ou degradação ambiental (vulnerabilidade ambiental. A metodologia baseia-se na construção de um Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG, em que se sobrepõe a cartografia da rede hidrográfica à malha dos setores censitários do município de São Paulo (censo 2000. Inicialmente, identificam-se os setores classificados como de alta vulnerabilidade social pelo Mapa da vulnerabilidade social da população da cidade de São Paulo (CEM-CEBRAP/SAS-PMSP, 2004. Posteriormente, os setores localizados às margens de cursos d´água e com baixa cobertura de esgoto são considerados proxy de áreas com alta vulnerabilidade ambiental. Os resultados mostram que, no interior do grupo de setores censitários de alta vulnerabilidade social, existem grandes diferenças nas condições socioeconômicas e demográficas, relacionadas às diversas categorias de vulnerabilidade ambiental.The objective of this article is to identify and analyze population groups living in situations of socio-environmental vulnerability in São Paulo, by constructing environmental indicators on a disaggregated scale. We define socio-environmental vulnerability as the spatial coexistence of high social vulnerability together with areas of environmental risk and deterioration. The methodology is based on a Geographical Information System (GIS that provides information on the network of waterways and the layers of the census tracts in the municipality of São Paulo. We first identify the census tracts that show high social vulnerability, using a Social

  11. The stress-vulnerability model how does stress impact on mental illness at the level of the brain and what are the consequences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Cindy; Agius, Mark

    2010-06-01

    The stress -vulnerability model (Zubin et al. 1977) is an extremely useful model for identifying and treating relapses of mental illness. We accept that human persons carry genetic and other predisposition to mental illness. However, the question arises as to how stress impacts on a person in order to cause mental illness to develop. Furthermore there arises the issue as to what other effects such stress has on the human body beyond the human brain. Our aim was to research and integrate the current literature in order to establish how stress impacts on the brain at the cellular level, and to establish whether there are other consequences for the human body brought about by the impact of stress on the human brain. Literature Search, using pubmed. We have identified much literature on how stress affects biological mechanisms within the brain, and how it relates to biological vulnerabilities carried by different individuals. We have identified communalities in how the interplay between stress and vulnerability occurs in different disease processes.

  12. Prospective evaluation of a cognitive vulnerability-stress model for depression: the interaction of schema self-structures and negative life events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeds, Pamela M; Dozois, David J A

    2010-12-01

    This study tested the diathesis-stress component of Beck's (1967) cognitive theory of depression. Initially, participants completed measures assessing cognitive organization of the self-schema and depressive symptoms. One year later, participants completed measures assessing cognitive organization of the self-schema, depressive symptoms, and negative life events. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses, controlling for initial depression, indicated that more tightly interconnected negative content was associated with greater elevations in depressive symptoms following the occurrence of life events. More diffusely interconnected positive content for interpersonal self-referent information also interacted with life events to predict depressive symptoms. Cognitive organization dimensions showed moderate to high stability across the follow-up, suggesting that they may be trait-like vulnerability factors. Implications for the cognitive vulnerability-stress model of depression are discussed. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Marked differences in core beliefs about self and others, between sociotropy and autonomy: personality vulnerabilities in the cognitive model of depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otani, Koichi; Suzuki, Akihito; Matsumoto, Yoshihiko; Shirata, Toshinori

    2018-01-01

    The cognitive model of depression posits two distinctive personality vulnerabilities termed sociotropy and autonomy, each of which is composed of a cluster of maladaptive self-schemas. It is postulated that negative core beliefs about self underlie maladaptive self-schemas as a whole, whereas those about others may be implicated in the autonomous self-schemas. Therefore, the present study examined the relations of sociotropy and autonomy with core beliefs about self and others. The sample of this study consisted of 321 healthy Japanese volunteers. Sociotropy and autonomy were evaluated by the corresponding subscales of the Sociotropy-Autonomy Scale. Core beliefs about self and others were assessed by the negative-self, positive-self, negative-other and positive-other subscales of the Brief Core Schema Scales. In the forced multiple regression analysis, sociotropy scores were correlated with negative-self scores ( β = 0.389, P vulnerabilities to depression.

  14. Development and implementation of a GIS-based tool for spatial modeling of seismic vulnerability of Tehran

    OpenAIRE

    Hashemi, M.; Alesheikh, A. A.

    2012-01-01

    Achieving sustainable development in countries prone to earthquakes is possible with taking effective measures to reduce vulnerability to earthquakes. In this context, damage assessment of hypothetical earthquakes and planning for disaster management are important issues. Having a computer tool capable of estimating structural and human losses from earthquakes in a specific region may facilitate the decision-making process before and during disasters. Interoperability of this tool with wide-s...

  15. An Animal Model of Genetic Vulnerability to Behavioral Disinhibition and Responsiveness to Reward-Related Cues: Implications for Addiction

    OpenAIRE

    Flagel, Shelly B; Robinson, Terry E; Clark, Jeremy J; Clinton, Sarah M; Watson, Stanley J; Seeman, Phillip; Phillips, Paul E M; Akil, Huda

    2009-01-01

    Rats selectively bred based on high or low reactivity to a novel environment were characterized for other behavioral and neurobiological traits thought to be relevant to addiction vulnerability. The two lines of animals, which differ in their propensity to self-administer drugs, also differ in the value they attribute to cues associated with reward, in impulsive behavior, and in their dopamine system. When a cue was paired with food or cocaine reward bred high-responder rats (bHRs) learned to...

  16. The Impact of Urban US Policing Practices on Black Men Who Have Sex with Men's HIV Vulnerability: Ethnographic Findings and a Conceptual Model for Future Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Caroline M; Parker, Richard G; Philbin, Morgan M; Hirsch, Jennifer S

    2018-04-01

    This paper advances research on racism and health by presenting a conceptual model that delineates pathways linking policing practices to HIV vulnerability among Black men who have sex with men in the urban USA. Pathways include perceived discrimination based on race, sexuality and gender performance, mental health, and condom-carrying behaviors. The model, intended to stimulate future empirical work, is based on a review of the literature and on ethnographic data collected in 2014 in New York City. This paper contributes to a growing body of work that examines policing practices as drivers of racial health disparities extending far beyond violence-related deaths.

  17. The characteristics of lightning risk and zoning in Beijing simulated by a risk assessment model

    OpenAIRE

    H. Hu; J. Wang; J. Pan

    2013-01-01

    In this study, the cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash/stroke density was derived from the lightning location finder (LLF) data recorded between 2007 and 2011. The vulnerability of land surfaces was then assessed from the classification of the study areas into buildings, outdoor areas under the building canopy and open-field areas, which makes it convenient to deduce the location factor and confirm the protective capability. Subsequently, the potential number of dangerous l...

  18. Marked differences in core beliefs about self and others, between sociotropy and autonomy: personality vulnerabilities in the cognitive model of depression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otani K

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Koichi Otani, Akihito Suzuki, Yoshihiko Matsumoto, Toshinori Shirata Department of Psychiatry, Yamagata University School of Medicine, Yamagata, Japan Objective: The cognitive model of depression posits two distinctive personality vulnerabilities termed sociotropy and autonomy, each of which is composed of a cluster of maladaptive self-schemas. It is postulated that negative core beliefs about self underlie maladaptive self-schemas as a whole, whereas those about others may be implicated in the autonomous self-schemas. Therefore, the present study examined the relations of sociotropy and autonomy with core beliefs about self and others.Methods: The sample of this study consisted of 321 healthy Japanese volunteers. Sociotropy and autonomy were evaluated by the corresponding subscales of the Sociotropy–Autonomy Scale. Core beliefs about self and others were assessed by the negative-self, positive-self, negative-other and positive-other subscales of the Brief Core Schema Scales.Results: In the forced multiple regression analysis, sociotropy scores were correlated with negative-self scores (β = 0.389, P < 0.001. Meanwhile, autonomy scores were correlated with positive-self scores (β = 0.199, P < 0.01 and negative-other scores (β = 0.191, P < 0.01.Conclusion: The present study suggests marked differences in core beliefs about self and others between sociotropy and autonomy, further contrasting the two personality vulnerabilities to depression. Keywords: sociotropy, autonomy, core belief, self, other, personality, cognitive vulnerability

  19. A review of vulnerability and risks for schizophrenia: Beyond the two hit hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Justin; Eyre, Harris; Jacka, Felice N; Dodd, Seetal; Dean, Olivia; McEwen, Sarah; Debnath, Monojit; McGrath, John; Maes, Michael; Amminger, Paul; McGorry, Patrick D; Pantelis, Christos; Berk, Michael

    2016-06-01

    Schizophrenia risk has often been conceptualized using a model which requires two hits in order to generate the clinical phenotype-the first as an early priming in a genetically predisposed individual and the second a likely environmental insult. The aim of this paper was to review the literature and reformulate this binary risk-vulnerability model. We sourced the data for this narrative review from the electronic database PUBMED. Our search terms were not limited by language or date of publication. The development of schizophrenia may be driven by genetic vulnerability interacting with multiple vulnerability factors including lowered prenatal vitamin D exposure, viral infections, smoking intelligence quotient, social cognition cannabis use, social defeat, nutrition and childhood trauma. It is likely that these genetic risks, environmental risks and vulnerability factors are cumulative and interactive with each other and with critical periods of neurodevelopmental vulnerability. The development of schizophrenia is likely to be more complex and nuanced than the binary two hit model originally proposed nearly thirty years ago. Risk appears influenced by a more complex process involving genetic risk interfacing with multiple potentially interacting hits and vulnerability factors occurring at key periods of neurodevelopmental activity, which culminate in the expression of disease state. These risks are common across a number of neuropsychiatric and medical disorders, which might inform common preventive and intervention strategies across non-communicable disorders. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. A review of vulnerability and risks for schizophrenia: Beyond the two hit hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Justin; Eyre, Harris; Jacka, Felice N; Dodd, Seetal; Dean, Olivia; McEwen, Sarah; Debnath, Monojit; McGrath, John; Maes, Michael; Amminger, Paul; McGorry, Patrick D; Pantelis, Christos; Berk, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Schizophrenia risk has often been conceptualized using a model which requires two hits in order to generate the clinical phenotype—the first as an early priming in a genetically predisposed individual and the second a likely environmental insult. The aim of this paper was to review the literature and reformulate this binary risk-vulnerability model. We sourced the data for this narrative review from the electronic database PUBMED. Our search terms were not limited by language or date of publication. The development of schizophrenia may be driven by genetic vulnerability interacting with multiple vulnerability factors including lowered prenatal vitamin D exposure, viral infections, smoking intelligence quotient, social cognition cannabis use, social defeat, nutrition and childhood trauma. It is likely that these genetic risks, environmental risks and vulnerability factors are cumulative and interactive with each other and with critical periods of neurodevelopmental vulnerability. The development of schizophrenia is likely to be more complex and nuanced than the binary two hit model originally proposed nearly thirty years ago. Risk appears influenced by a more complex process involving genetic risk interfacing with multiple potentially interacting hits and vulnerability factors occurring at key periods of neurodevelopmental activity, which culminate in the expression of disease state. These risks are common across a number of neuropsychiatric and medical disorders, which might inform common preventive and intervention strategies across non-communicable disorders. PMID:27073049

  1. What Does Vulnerability Mean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parley, Fiona F

    2011-01-01

    Protection of those deemed vulnerable has received increasing attention since 2000. This article reports on care staff views of vulnerability using original data from a research study (Parley. "Vulnerability and abuse: an exploration of views of care staff working with people who have learning disabilities," PhD Thesis, 2007) in which care staff…

  2. Absence of “Warm-Up” during Active Avoidance Learning in a Rat Model of Anxiety Vulnerability: Insights from Computational Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Catherine E.; Smith, Ian M.; Servatius, Richard J.; Beck, Kevin D.

    2014-01-01

    Avoidance behaviors, in which a learned response causes omission of an upcoming punisher, are a core feature of many psychiatric disorders. While reinforcement learning (RL) models have been widely used to study the development of appetitive behaviors, less attention has been paid to avoidance. Here, we present a RL model of lever-press avoidance learning in Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats and in the inbred Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rat, which has been proposed as a model of anxiety vulnerability. We focus on “warm-up,” transiently decreased avoidance responding at the start of a testing session, which is shown by SD but not WKY rats. We first show that a RL model can correctly simulate key aspects of acquisition, extinction, and warm-up in SD rats; we then show that WKY behavior can be simulated by altering three model parameters, which respectively govern the tendency to explore new behaviors vs. exploit previously reinforced ones, the tendency to repeat previous behaviors regardless of reinforcement, and the learning rate for predicting future outcomes. This suggests that several, dissociable mechanisms may contribute independently to strain differences in behavior. The model predicts that, if the “standard” inter-session interval is shortened from 48 to 24 h, SD rats (but not WKY) will continue to show warm-up; we confirm this prediction in an empirical study with SD and WKY rats. The model further predicts that SD rats will continue to show warm-up with inter-session intervals as short as a few minutes, while WKY rats will not show warm-up, even with inter-session intervals as long as a month. Together, the modeling and empirical data indicate that strain differences in warm-up are qualitative rather than just the result of differential sensitivity to task variables. Understanding the mechanisms that govern expression of warm-up behavior in avoidance may lead to better understanding of pathological avoidance, and potential pathways to modify these processes. PMID

  3. Archaeological Site Vulnerability Modelling: The Influence of High Impact Storm Events on Models of Shoreline Erosion in the Western Canadian Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O’Rourke Michael J. E.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Much of the Inuvialuit archaeological record is situated along shorelines of the western Canadian Arctic. These coastal sites are at substantial risk of damage due to a number of geomorphological processes at work in the region. The identification of threatened heritage remains is critical in the Mackenzie Delta, where landscape changes are taking place at an increasingly rapid pace. This paper outlines some preliminary observations from a research program directed toward identifying vulnerable archaeological remains within the Inuvialuit Settlement Region. Coastal erosion rates have been calculated for over 280 km of the Kugmallit Bay shoreline, extending along the eastern extent of Richards Island and neighbouring areas of the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula. Helicopter surveys conducted during the 2014 field season confirmed that areas exposed to heavy erosive forces in the past continue to erode at alarming rates. Some of the calculated rates, however, have proven far too conservative. An extreme period of erosion at Toker Point in the autumn of 2013 has yielded a prime example of how increasingly volatile weather patterns can influence shoreline erosion models. It has also provided a case with which to demonstrate the value of using more recent, shorter time-interval imagery in assessing impacts to cultural landscapes.

  4. Drug abuse: vulnerability and transition to addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Moal, M

    2009-05-01

    Intrinsic vulnerability is central to the transition of recreational drug use to misuse. Several factors contribute to vulnerability, inherent or acquired, and they account for the huge individual differences observed concerning the propensity to enter in the addiction process. Some of the multifactional causes for a vulnerable phenotype will be examined: genetic factors, age and gender influences, various comorbidities and epidemiological observations. Stress-induced vulnerability will be particularly reviewed because it provides a good model for a pathophysiological research and for relating environmental events to biological consequences of drug vulnerability, namely through the striato-cortical dopamine system. Experimental studies are generally blind concerning these historical factors that contribute vulnerability and a critical evaluation of current animal models is needed. The transition of the last stage of the process, addiction, is conceptualized as a progression from homeostasis to allostasis and then, to pathology.

  5. Assessing aquifer vulnerability from lumped parameter modeling of modern water proportions in groundwater mixtures - Application to nitrate pollution in California's South Coast Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagedorn, B.; Ruane, M.; Clark, N.

    2017-12-01

    In California, the overuse of synthetic fertilizers and manure in agriculture have caused nitrate (NO3) to be one of the state's most widespread groundwater pollutants. Given that nitrogen fertilizer applications have steadily increased since the 1950s and given that soil percolation and recharge transit times in California can exceed timescales of decades, the nitrate impact on groundwater resources is likely a legacy for years and even decades to come. This study presents a methodology for groundwater vulnerability assessment that operates independently of difficult-to-constrain soil and aquifer property data (i.e., saturated thickness, texture, porosity, conductivity, etc.), but rather utilizes groundwater age and, more importantly, groundwater mixing information to illustrate actual vulnerability at the water table. To accomplish this, the modern (i.e., less than 60-year old) water proportion (MWP) in groundwater mixtures is computed via lumped parameter modeling of chemical tracer (i.e., 3H, 14C and 3Hetrit) data. These MWPs are then linked to groundwater dissolved oxygen (DO) values to describe the risk for soil zone-derived nitrate to accumulate in the saturated zone. Preliminary studies carried out for 71 wells in California's South Coast Range-Coastal (SCRC) study unit reveal MWP values derived from binary dispersion models of 3.24% to 21.8%. The fact that high MWPs generally coincide with oxic (DO ≥1.5 mg/L) groundwater conditions underscores the risk towards increased groundwater NO3 pollution for many of the tested wells. These results support the conclusion that best agricultural management and policy objectives should incorporate groundwater vulnerability models that are developed at the same spatial scale as the decision making.

  6. Refining the vulnerability model of low self-esteem and depression: Disentangling the effects of genuine self-esteem and narcissism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Ulrich; Robins, Richard W; Meier, Laurenz L; Conger, Rand D

    2016-01-01

    A growing body of research supports the vulnerability model of low self-esteem and depression, which states that low self-esteem is a risk factor for depression. The goal of the present research was to refine the vulnerability model, by testing whether the self-esteem effect is truly due to a lack of genuine self-esteem or due to a lack of narcissistic self-enhancement. For the analyses, we used data from 6 longitudinal studies consisting of 2,717 individuals. In each study, we tested the prospective effects of self-esteem and narcissism on depression both separately for each construct and mutually controlling the constructs for each other (i.e., a strategy that informs about effects of genuine self-esteem and pure narcissism), and then meta-analytically aggregated the findings. The results indicated that the effect of low self-esteem holds when narcissism is controlled for (uncontrolled effect = -.26, controlled effect = -.27). In contrast, the effect of narcissism was close to zero when self-esteem was controlled for (uncontrolled effect = -.06, controlled effect = .01). Moreover, the analyses suggested that the self-esteem effect is linear across the continuum from low to high self-esteem (i.e., the effect was not weaker at very high levels of self-esteem). Finally, self-esteem and narcissism did not interact in their effect on depression; that is, individuals with high self-esteem have a lower risk for developing depression, regardless of whether or not they are narcissistic. The findings have significant theoretical implications because they strengthen the vulnerability model of low self-esteem and depression. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change and Its Impact on Food Security in Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saloua Rochdane

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This work analyzes satellite and socioeconomic data to explore the relationship between food and wood demand and supply, expressed in terms of net primary production (NPP, in Morocco. A vulnerability index is defined as the ratio of demand to supply as influenced by population, affluence, technology and climate indicators. The present situation (1995–2007, as well as projections of demand and supply, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Scenarios A2 and B2, are analyzed for a 2025 horizon. We find that the food NPP demand increased by 34.5%, whereas the wood consumption NPP demand decreased by 19.3% between 1995 and 2007. The annual NPP required to support the population’s food and wood appropriation was 29.73 million tons of carbon (MTC in 2007, while the landscape NPP production for the same year was 60.24 MTC; indicating that the population appropriates about 50% of the total NPP resources. Both scenarios show increases in demand and decreases in supply. Under A2, it would take more than 1.25 years for terrestrial ecosystems in Morocco to produce the NPP appropriated by populations in one year. This number is 0.70 years under B2. This already high vulnerability for food and wood products is likely to be exacerbated with climate changes and population increase.

  8. Differential use of danger and safety signals in an animal model of anxiety vulnerability: The behavioral economics of avoidance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiegler, Kevin M; Fortress, Ashley M; Pang, Kevin C H

    2018-03-02

    Differential processing of danger and safety signals may underlie symptoms of anxiety disorders and posttraumatic stress disorder. One symptom common to these disorders is pathological avoidance. The present study examined whether danger and safety signals influence avoidance differently in anxiety-vulnerable Wistar-Kyoto (WKY) rats and Sprague Dawley (SD) rats. SD and WKY rats were tested in a novel progressive ratio avoidance task with and without danger or safety signals. Two components of reinforcement, hedonic value and motivation, were determined by fitting an exponentiated demand equation to the data. Hedonic value of avoidance did not differ between SD and WKY rats, but WKY rats had greater motivation to avoid than SD rats. Removal of the safety signal reduced motivation to avoid in SD, but not WKY, rats. Removal of the danger signal did not alter avoidance in either strain. When danger and safety signals were presented simultaneously, WKY rats responded to the danger signals, whereas SD rats responded to the safety signal. The results provide evidence that 1) safety signals enhance motivation to avoid in SD rats, 2) both danger and safety signals influence motivation in WKY rats, and 3) danger signals take precedence over safety signals when presented simultaneously in WKY rats. Thus, anxiety vulnerability is associated with preferential use of danger signals to motivate avoidance. The differential use of danger and safety signals has important implications for the etiology and treatment of pathological avoidance in anxiety disorders and posttraumatic stress disorder. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. Using experiments and demographic models to assess rare plant vulnerability to utlity-scale solar energy development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    Pressing challenges for the implementation of solar energy are the effects of construction and operation on protected animal and plant species. Siting and mitigation of solar energy often requires understanding of basic biology and distributions of rare species that are unknown. How can we rapidly collect the information necessary on species- and site-specific population dynamics to effectively design mitigation and conservation measures? We have developed an integrated approach to assessing the vulnerability of a suite of representative rare plant species in the region. We implemented a prioritized series of demographic and experimental studies over the past four years to identify the types of species, populations, and life stages most vulnerable to impact or prone to conservation efforts. We have found substantial variation in vegetative and sexual reproduction between study populations for several rare plants, including between populations that vary in putative impact by development and/or effects of experimental solar arrays. For a subset of species, we designed population viability analysis and applied them to identify sensitive vital rates and compare quasi-extinction probabilities under different climate and impact scenarios. By utilizing practical experiments to test for the effects of real or simulated impacts, we found differences in vital rates between natural and disturbed populations adjacent to and within solar installations. We draw conclusions from our work to guide the analysis of benefits, permitting, and design of utility-scale solar energy facilities.

  10. Psycho-Motor and Error Enabled Simulations: Modeling Vulnerable Skills in the Pre Mastery Phase - Medical Practice Initiative Procedural Skill Decay and Maintenance (MPI-PSD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    B were set between 10% and 90% of the maximum closed loop force handled by the device (14.5 N/mm), or between 1.45 and 13.05 N/mm. The effective...include administration of vasoactive medications , rapid resuscitation, total parenteral nutrition, and delivery of caustic medications .2 When considering...Award Number: W81XWH-13-1-0080 TITLE: "Psycho-Motor and Error Enabled Simulations: Modeling Vulnerable Skills in the Pre-Mastery Phase - Medical

  11. Study on Regional Agro-ecological Risk and Pressure Supported by City Expansion Model and SERA Model - A Case Study of Selangor, Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Shi , Xiaoxia; Zhang , Yaoli; Peng , Cheng

    2010-01-01

    International audience; This study revealed the influence of city expansion on the agro-ecological risks through the analysis and prediction of city expansion in different periods and study on the change of risk and pressure on the regional agricultural eco-environment. The city expansion of Selangor, Malaysia (as a case) was predicted based on relevant spatial and attribute data as well as simulation prediction models of city expansion. Subsequently, the ecological risk and pressure in the s...

  12. Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Ronald Reagan Building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Report #10-P-0212, September 7, 2010. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s Ronald Reagan Building network conducted in June 2010 identified Internet Protocol addresses with numerous high-risk and medium-risk vulnerabilities.

  13. Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Andrew W. Breidenbach Environmental Research Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Report #10-P-0210, September 7, 2010. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s Andrew W. Breidenbach Environmental Research Center network conducted in June 2010 identified Internet Protocol addresses with numerous high-risk and medium-risk vulnerabilities.

  14. Modeling rain-fed maize vulnerability to droughts using the standardized precipitation index from satellite estimated rainfall—Southern Malawi case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, James; Adams Chavula,; Gregory J. Husak,; Harikishan Jayanthi,; Tamuka Magadzire,

    2013-01-01

    During 1990s, disaster risk reduction emerged as a novel, proactive approach to managing risks from natural hazards. The World Bank, USAID, and other international donor agencies began making efforts to mainstream disaster risk reduction in countries whose population and economies were heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. This approach has more significance in light of the increasing climatic hazard patterns and the climate scenarios projected for different hazard prone countries in the world. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) has been monitoring the food security issues in the sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and in Haiti. FEWS NET monitors the rainfall and moisture availability conditions with the help of NOAA RFE2 data for deriving food security status in Africa. This paper highlights the efforts in using satellite estimated rainfall inputs to develop drought vulnerability models in the drought prone areas in Malawi. The satellite RFE2 based SPI corresponding to the critical tasseling and silking phases (in the months of January, February, and March) were statistically regressed with drought-induced yield losses at the district level. The analysis has shown that the drought conditions in February and early March lead to most damage to maize yields in this region. The district-wise vulnerabilities to drought were upscaled to obtain a regional maize vulnerability model for southern Malawi. The results would help in establishing an early monitoring mechanism for drought impact assessment, give the decision makers additional time to assess seasonal outcomes, and identify potential food-related hazards in Malawi.

  15. Assessment of vulnerability in karst aquifers using a quantitative integrated numerical model: catchment characterization and high resolution monitoring - Application to semi-arid regions- Lebanon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doummar, Joanna; Aoun, Michel; Andari, Fouad

    2016-04-01

    Karst aquifers are highly heterogeneous and characterized by a duality of recharge (concentrated; fast versus diffuse; slow) and a duality of flow which directly influences groundwater flow and spring responses. Given this heterogeneity in flow and infiltration, karst aquifers do not always obey standard hydraulic laws. Therefore the assessment of their vulnerability reveals to be challenging. Studies have shown that vulnerability of aquifers is highly governed by recharge to groundwater. On the other hand specific parameters appear to play a major role in the spatial and temporal distribution of infiltration on a karst system, thus greatly influencing the discharge rates observed at a karst spring, and consequently the vulnerability of a spring. This heterogeneity can only be depicted using an integrated numerical model to quantify recharge spatially and assess the spatial and temporal vulnerability of a catchment for contamination. In the framework of a three-year PEER NSF/USAID funded project, the vulnerability of a karst catchment in Lebanon is assessed quantitatively using a numerical approach. The aim of the project is also to refine actual evapotranspiration rates and spatial recharge distribution in a semi arid environment. For this purpose, a monitoring network was installed since July 2014 on two different pilot karst catchment (drained by Qachqouch Spring and Assal Spring) to collect high resolution data to be used in an integrated catchment numerical model with MIKE SHE, DHI including climate, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone. Catchment characterization essential for the model included geological mapping and karst features (e.g., dolines) survey as they contribute to fast flow. Tracer experiments were performed under different flow conditions (snow melt and low flow) to delineate the catchment area, reveal groundwater velocities and response to snowmelt events. An assessment of spring response after precipitation events allowed the estimation of the

  16. Infrastructure Damage/Fragility Models and Data Quality Issues Associated with Department of Defense Climate Vulnerability and Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-26

    Jeffrey Donnelly, Richard Moss,  Joseph Donoghue, Steve Kish, Jim Elsner, Robert Evans, David LaBranche, Justin LaRose, Adam  Parris,  Chris  Weaver...Garrow, L.,  Higgins , M., and Meyer, M. (2013). ”Impacts of Climate Change on Scour‐ Vulnerable Bridges: Assessment Based on HYRISK.” J. Infrastruct...Adam Parris  NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and  Assessments Program  Y  Chris  Weaver  U.S. Global Change Research Program  Y    83    Name

  17. The Behavioral Approach System (BAS) Model of Vulnerability to Bipolar Disorder: Evidence of a Continuum in BAS Sensitivity across Adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Richard T; Burke, Taylor A; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2017-11-04

    Behavioral Approach System (BAS) sensitivity has been implicated in the development of a variety of different psychiatric disorders. Prominent among these in the empirical literature are bipolar spectrum disorders (BSDs). Given that adolescence represents a critical developmental stage of risk for the onset of BSDs, it is important to clarify the latent structure of BAS sensitivity in this period of development. A statistical approach especially well-suited for delineating the latent structure of BAS sensitivity is taxometric analysis, which is designed to evaluate whether the latent structure of a construct is taxonic (i.e., categorical) or dimensional (i.e., continuous) in nature. The current study applied three mathematically non-redundant taxometric procedures (i.e., MAMBAC, MAXEIG, and L-Mode) to a large community sample of adolescents (n = 12,494) who completed two separate measures of BAS sensitivity: the BIS/BAS Scales Carver and White (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67, 319-333. 1994) and the Sensitivity to Reward and Sensitivity to Punishment Questionnaire (Torrubia et al. Personality and Individual Differences, 31, 837-862. 2001). Given the significant developmental changes in reward sensitivity that occur across adolescence, the current investigation aimed to provide a fine-grained evaluation of the data by performing taxometric analyses at an age-by-age level (14-19 years; n for each age ≥ 883). Results derived from taxometric procedures, across all ages tested, were highly consistent, providing strong evidence that BAS sensitivity is best conceptualized as dimensional in nature. Thus, the findings suggest that BAS-related vulnerability to BSDs exists along a continuum of severity, with no natural cut-point qualitatively differentiating high- and low-risk adolescents. Clinical and research implications for the assessment of BSD-related vulnerability are discussed.

  18. New approach to analyzing vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Callaghan, P.B.; Carlson, R.L.; Riedeman, G.W.

    1986-01-01

    The Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) has recently completed construction of the Fuel Cycle Plant (FCP) at Richland, Washington. At start-up the facility will fabricate driver fuel for the Fast Flux Test Facility in the Secure Automated Fabrication line. After construction completion, but before facility certification, the Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Operation Office requested that a vulnerability analysis be performed which assumed multiple insiders as a threat to the security system. A unique method of analyzing facility vulnerabilities was developed at the Security Applications Center (SAC), which is managed by WHC for DOE. The method that was developed verifies a previous vulnerability assessment, as well as introducing a modeling technique which analyzes security alarms in relation to delaying factors and possible insider activities. With this information it is possible to assess the relative strength or weakness of various possible routes to and from a target within a facility

  19. Chronic subordinate colony housing paradigm: A mouse model for mechanisms of PTSD vulnerability, targeted prevention, and treatment-2016 Curt Richter Award Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reber, Stefan O; Langgartner, Dominik; Foertsch, Sandra; Postolache, Teodor T; Brenner, Lisa A; Guendel, Harald; Lowry, Christopher A

    2016-12-01

    There is considerable individual variability in vulnerability for developing posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD); evidence suggests that this variability is related in part to genetic and environmental factors, including adverse early life experience. Interestingly, recent studies indicate that induction of chronic low-grade inflammation may be a common mechanism underlying gene and environment interactions that increase the risk for development of PTSD symptoms, and, therefore, may be a target for novel interventions for prevention or treatment of PTSD. Development of murine models with face, construct, and predictive validity would provide opportunities to investigate in detail complex genetic, environmental, endocrine, and immunologic factors that determine vulnerability to PTSD-like syndromes, and furthermore may provide mechanistic insight leading to development of novel interventions for both prevention and treatment of PTSD symptoms. Here we describe the potential use of the chronic subordinate colony housing (CSC) paradigm in mice as an adequate animal model for development of a PTSD-like syndrome and describe recent studies that suggest novel interventions for the prevention and treatment of PTSD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Socio-economic vulnerability, adaptation to agro-climatic risk and the potential of user-tailored climate services for the Andean Highlands: The case of quinoa production in the region of Puno

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flubacher, Moritz; Sedlmeier, Katrin; Lechthaler, Filippo; Rohrer, Mario; Cristobal, Lizet; Vinogradova, Alexandra

    2017-04-01

    In the semi-arid Altiplano in Peru, smallholder farmers are extremely exposed to climatic hazards like drought, frost and hail. These unfavorable weather and climate events can lead to significant crop losses and thereby provoke periods of food insecurity for subsistence farmers. The use of specific climate information can serve as an adaptation strategy to reduce the impact of these natural hazards. In this context, the Climandes project (a project of the Global Framework for Climate Services led by WMO) aims at developing user-tailored seasonal forecast products for the agricultural sector in the Peruvian Andes such as indices on increased frost risk, the occurrence of long dry periods, or the start of the rainy season. In order to develop such user-tailored climate information and link it efficiently to the existing implementation context, it is important to understand the complex interrelation between climate variability and change, socio-economic vulnerability and adaptation limits. Moreover, as it has been widely shown, the process of making climate information useful for end-users, in particular for smallholder farmers in developing countries, remains a considerable challenge due to existing cognitive, cultural and institutional constraints. In this sense, it is necessary to identify these constraints and formulate strategies to overcome them. While there exist different studies about climate change and anomalies in Puno, there is no consolidated evidence on the corresponding socio-economic vulnerabilities in the specific agricultural context of Puno. In order to fill this gap, we conducted a field survey collecting primary data in the Andean highlands based on a representative sample of 726 smallholder farmers in the region of Puno (Peru). The assessment primarily focused on exploring smallholders' agro-climatic risk exposure, socio-economic profiles, existing coping strategies as well as prevailing barriers to utilization of science-based climate

  1. Vulnerability, Borderline Personality Disorders. Clinical and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Borderline personality disorder and vulnerability are difficult to assess and are rather elusive to define. A case study material is presented from a cognitive analytical model. An attempt of the dominant features of cognitive analytical therapy and discussion of vulnerability in relation to personality disorder is provided.

  2. Automated Software Vulnerability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sezer, Emre C.; Kil, Chongkyung; Ning, Peng

    Despite decades of research, software continues to have vulnerabilities. Successful exploitations of these vulnerabilities by attackers cost millions of dollars to businesses and individuals. Unfortunately, most effective defensive measures, such as patching and intrusion prevention systems, require an intimate knowledge of the vulnerabilities. Many systems for detecting attacks have been proposed. However, the analysis of the exploited vulnerabilities is left to security experts and programmers. Both the human effortinvolved and the slow analysis process are unfavorable for timely defensive measure to be deployed. The problem is exacerbated by zero-day attacks.

  3. Modelling the distribution of tritium in groundwater across South Africa to assess the vulnerability and sustainability of groundwater resources in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Rooyen, Jared; Miller, Jodie; Watson, Andrew; Butler, Mike

    2017-04-01

    Groundwater is critical for sustaining human populations, especially in semi-arid to arid areas, where surface water availability is low. Shallow groundwater is usually abstracted for this purpose because it is the easiest to access and assumed to be renewable and regularly recharged by precipitation. Renewable, regularly recharged groundwater is also called modern groundwater, ie groundwater that has recently been in contact with the atmosphere. Tritium can be used to determine whether or not a groundwater resource is modern because the half-life of tritium is only 12.36 years and tritium is dominantly produced in the upper atmosphere and not in the rock mass. For this reason, groundwater with detectable tritium activities likely has a residence age of less than 50 years. In this study, tritium activities in 277 boreholes distributed across South Africa were used to develop a national model for tritium activity in groundwater in order to establish the extent of modern groundwater across South Africa. The tritium model was combined with modelled depth to water using 3079 measured static water levels obtained from the National Groundwater Archive and validated against a separate set of 40 tritium activities along the west coast of South Africa. The model showed good agreement with the distribution of rainfall which has been previously documented across the globe (Gleeson et al., 2015), although the arid Karoo basin in south west South Africa shows higher than expected tritium levels given the very low regional precipitation levels. To assess the vulnerability of groundwater to degradation in quality and quantity, the tritium model was incorporated into a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) model which incorporated other indicators of groundwater stress including mean annual precipitation, mean annual surface temperature, electrical conductivity (as a proxy for groundwater salinization), potential evaporation, population density and cultivated land usage. The MCE model

  4. Urban settlements' vulnerability to flood risks in African cities: A conceptual framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafiu O. Salami

    2017-02-01

    flood disaster risk and reduce urban poor’s vulnerability to natural and human-induced hazards.

  5. Development and implementation of a GIS-based tool for spatial modeling of seismic vulnerability of Tehran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hashemi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Achieving sustainable development in countries prone to earthquakes is possible with taking effective measures to reduce vulnerability to earthquakes. In this context, damage assessment of hypothetical earthquakes and planning for disaster management are important issues. Having a computer tool capable of estimating structural and human losses from earthquakes in a specific region may facilitate the decision-making process before and during disasters. Interoperability of this tool with wide-spread spatial analysis frameworks will expedite the data transferring process. In this study, the earthquake damage assessment (EDA software tool is developed as an embedded extension within a GIS (geographic information system environment for the city of Tehran, Iran. This GIS-based extension provides users with a familiar environment to estimate and observe the probable damages and fatalities of a deterministic earthquake scenario. The productivity of this tool is later demonstrated for southern Karoon parish, Region 10, Tehran. Three case studies for three active faults in the area and a comparison of the results with other research substantiated the reliability of this tool for additional earthquake scenarios.

  6. Inherent vulnerabilities in monoaminergic pathways predict the emergence of depressive impairments in an animal model of chronic epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medel-Matus, Jesús-Servando; Shin, Don; Sankar, Raman; Mazarati, Andrey

    2017-08-01

    The objective was to determine whether the depression comorbid with epilepsy could be predicted based on inherent premorbid patterns of monoaminergic transmission. In male Wistar rats, despair-like and anhedonia-like behaviors were examined using forced swimming and taste preference tests, respectively. Serotonergic raphe nucleus (RN)-prefrontal cortex (PFC) and dopaminergic ventral tegmental area (VTA)-nucleus accumbens (NAcc) pathways were interrogated by fast scan cyclic voltammetry (FSCV). The assays were performed before and 2 months after pilocarpine status epilepticus. In a subset of naive rats, FSCV, coupled with the intensity-dependent stimulation paradigm, detected specific deviations in each pathway (six rats for RN-PFC and seven rats for VTA-NAcc, with overlap in two, of 19 total subjects) in the absence of behavioral impairments. During epilepsy, animals with preexisting deviations in RN-PFC invariably developed despair, and rats with deviations in VTA-NAcc developed anhedonia. Serotonergic and dopaminergic pathways, respectively, showed signs of explicit deterioration. We suggest that epilepsy triggers decompensations in the already vulnerable depression-relevant neuronal circuits, which culminate in depression. The established connection between the identified specific signatures in monoamine transmission in naive rats and specific symptoms of epilepsy-associated depression may help in understanding causes of comorbidity and in developing its early biomarkers. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 International League Against Epilepsy.

  7. Species distribution models of two critically endangered deep-sea octocorals reveal fishing impacts on vulnerable marine ecosystems in central Mediterranean Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauria, V; Garofalo, G; Fiorentino, F; Massi, D; Milisenda, G; Piraino, S; Russo, T; Gristina, M

    2017-08-14

    Deep-sea coral assemblages are key components of marine ecosystems that generate habitats for fish and invertebrate communities and act as marine biodiversity hot spots. Because of their life history traits, deep-sea corals are highly vulnerable to human impacts such as fishing. They are an indicator of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs), therefore their conservation is essential to preserve marine biodiversity. In the Mediterranean Sea deep-sea coral habitats are associated with commercially important crustaceans, consequently their abundance has dramatically declined due to the effects of trawling. Marine spatial planning is required to ensure that the conservation of these habitats is achieved. Species distribution models were used to investigate the distribution of two critically endangered octocorals (Funiculina quadrangularis and Isidella elongata) in the central Mediterranean as a function of environmental and fisheries variables. Results show that both species exhibit species-specific habitat preferences and spatial patterns in response to environmental variables, but the impact of trawling on their distribution differed. In particular F. quadrangularis can overlap with fishing activities, whereas I. elongata occurs exclusively where fishing is low or absent. This study represents the first attempt to identify key areas for the protection of soft and compact mud VMEs in the central Mediterranean Sea.

  8. Human iPSC-Derived Neuronal Model of Tau-A152T Frontotemporal Dementia Reveals Tau-Mediated Mechanisms of Neuronal Vulnerability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Catarina Silva

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Frontotemporal dementia (FTD and other tauopathies characterized by focal brain neurodegeneration and pathological accumulation of proteins are commonly associated with tau mutations. However, the mechanism of neuronal loss is not fully understood. To identify molecular events associated with tauopathy, we studied induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC-derived neurons from individuals carrying the tau-A152T variant. We highlight the potential of in-depth phenotyping of human neuronal cell models for pre-clinical studies and identification of modulators of endogenous tau toxicity. Through a panel of biochemical and cellular assays, A152T neurons showed accumulation, redistribution, and decreased solubility of tau. Upregulation of tau was coupled to enhanced stress-inducible markers and cell vulnerability to proteotoxic, excitotoxic, and mitochondrial stressors, which was rescued upon CRISPR/Cas9-mediated targeting of tau or by pharmacological activation of autophagy. Our findings unmask tau-mediated perturbations of specific pathways associated with neuronal vulnerability, revealing potential early disease biomarkers and therapeutic targets for FTD and other tauopathies.

  9. Effect of self-care training program based on Orem's model on the behaviors leading to sexually transmitted disease in vulnerable women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baghersad, Zahra; Alimohammadi, Nasrollah; Boroumandfar, Zahra; Golshiri, Parastoo

    2016-01-01

    Vulnerable women are prone to sexually transmitted diseases due to their high-risk behaviors. The present study aimed to investigate the effect of self-care training program based on Orem's model on the behaviors leading to sexually transmitted diseases in vulnerable women. This field trial was initially conducted on 100 women covered under health services and welfare organization in Isfahan city, who were selected by rationing ssampling. For needs assessment, they filled the self-care needs assessment questionnaire in three domains of knowledge, attitude, and practice. Then, at the stage of intervention (self-care training), 64 subjects were selected through convenient sampling and were assigned to experimental and control groups by random allocation. Data were analyzed by descriptive and analytical statistical tests through SPSS 18. Results showed that mean scores of knowledge ( P < 0.001), attitude ( P < 0.001), practice ( P = 0.04), and behavior change ( P = 0.01) were significantly higher immediately after and 3 months after intervention, compared to before intervention, but there was no significant difference in mean scores between immediately after and 3 months after intervention. With regard to these results, it can be concluded that if the educational programs are planned based on clients' real needs assessment, the learners follow the educational materials, related to their problems, more seriously and it results in a notable behavior change in them.

  10. The impact of vessel size on vulnerability curves: data and models for within-species variability in saplings of aspen, Populus tremuloides Michx.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Jing; Tyree, Melvin T

    2010-07-01

    The objective of this study was to quantify the relationship between vulnerability to cavitation and vessel diameter within a species. We measured vulnerability curves (VCs: percentage loss hydraulic conductivity versus tension) in aspen stems and measured vessel-size distributions. Measurements were done on seed-grown, 4-month-old aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) grown in a greenhouse. VCs of stem segments were measured using a centrifuge technique and by a staining technique that allowed a VC to be constructed based on vessel diameter size-classes (D). Vessel-based VCs were also fitted to Weibull cumulative distribution functions (CDF), which provided best-fit values of Weibull CDF constants (c and b) and P(50) = the tension causing 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity. We show that P(50) = 6.166D(-0.3134) (R(2) = 0.995) and that b and 1/c are both linear functions of D with R(2) > 0.95. The results are discussed in terms of models of VCs based on vessel D size-classes and in terms of concepts such as the 'pit area hypothesis' and vessel pathway redundancy.

  11. Heat Shock Protein Beta-1 Modifies Anterior to Posterior Purkinje Cell Vulnerability in a Mouse Model of Niemann-Pick Type C Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chan Chung

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Selective neuronal vulnerability is characteristic of most degenerative disorders of the CNS, yet mechanisms underlying this phenomenon remain poorly characterized. Many forms of cerebellar degeneration exhibit an anterior-to-posterior gradient of Purkinje cell loss including Niemann-Pick type C1 (NPC disease, a lysosomal storage disorder characterized by progressive neurological deficits that often begin in childhood. Here, we sought to identify candidate genes underlying vulnerability of Purkinje cells in anterior cerebellar lobules using data freely available in the Allen Brain Atlas. This approach led to the identification of 16 candidate neuroprotective or susceptibility genes. We demonstrate that one candidate gene, heat shock protein beta-1 (HSPB1, promoted neuronal survival in cellular models of NPC disease through a mechanism that involved inhibition of apoptosis. Additionally, we show that over-expression of wild type HSPB1 or a phosphomimetic mutant in NPC mice slowed the progression of motor impairment and diminished cerebellar Purkinje cell loss. We confirmed the modulatory effect of Hspb1 on Purkinje cell degeneration in vivo, as knockdown by Hspb1 shRNA significantly enhanced neuron loss. These results suggest that strategies to promote HSPB1 activity may slow the rate of cerebellar degeneration in NPC disease and highlight the use of bioinformatics tools to uncover pathways leading to neuronal protection in neurodegenerative disorders.

  12. Coastal vulnerability: climate change and natural hazards perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romieu, E.; Vinchon, C.

    2009-04-01

    : synthesis report. A contribution of working groups I, II and III to the Third Assesment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Klinke, A. and Renn, O., 2002. A new approach to risk evaluation and management : risk based, precaution based and discourse based strategies. Risk Analysis. 22, 1071-1094. McFadden, L., Nicholls, R.J., Penning-Rowsell, E. (Eds.), 2006. Managing coastal vulnerability. Elsevier Science. Nicholls, R. J., Hoozemans, F. M. J., Marchand, M., 1999. Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses. Global Environmental Change, Part A: Human and Policy Dimensions. 9, S69-S87. Nicholls, R. J., Leatherman, S. P., Volonte, C. R., 1995. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise; qualitative and quantitative assessments; Potential impacts of accelerated sea-level rise on developing countries. Journal of Coastal Research. Special issue 14, 26-43. Sarewitz, D., Pielke, R., Keykhah, M., 2003. Vulnerability and Risk: Some Thoughts from a Political and Policy Perspective. Risk Analysis. 23, 805-810. Turner, B. L.,II, Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J. X., Luers, A., Martello, M. L., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., Schiller, A., 2003. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA. 100, 8074-8079. UNFCCC, 2008. Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Vafeidis, A., Nicholls, R., McFadden, L., 2004. Developing a database for global vulnerability analysis of coastal zones: The DINAS-COAST project and the DIVA tool.

  13. Theoretical Risk and Prevention Model for Secondary Health Conditions and Mortality After SCI: 15 Years of Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, James S.; Saunders, Lee L.; DiPiro, Nicole D.; Reed, Karla S.

    2013-01-01

    Background: To successfully prevent secondary health conditions (SHCs) and promote longevity after spinal cord injury (SCI), we must first understand the risk factors precipitating their occurrence and develop strategies to address these risk factors. Conceptual models may aid in identifying the nature of SHCs and guide research, clinical practice, and the development of prevention strategies. Objective: Our purpose is to review and refine an existing theoretical risk and prevention model (TRPM) as a means of classifying risk and protective factors for SHCs and mortality after SCI and for identifying points of intervention. Methods: We describe conceptual work within the field of SCI research and SHCs, including a description of the TRPM, a review of research using the TRPM, and conceptual enhancements to the TRPM based on previous research. Conclusions: The enhanced TRPM directs research to the timing and chronicity of the SHCs and their relationship with overall health and physiologic decline. Future research should identify differences in the nature of SHCs, the extent to which they relate to risk and protective factors, and the degree to which they may be prevented with appropriate research-based strategies. PMID:23459002

  14. On the Empirical Importance of the Conditional Skewness Assumption in Modelling the Relationship between Risk and Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pipień, M.

    2008-09-01

    We present the results of an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, proposed by Merton we built a general sampling distribution suitable in analysing this relationship. The most important feature of our assumptions is that the skewness of the conditional distribution of returns is used as an alternative source of relation between risk and return. This general specification relates to Skewed Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic-in-Mean model. In order to make conditional distribution of financial returns skewed we considered the unified approach based on the inverse probability integral transformation. In particular, we applied hidden truncation mechanism, inverse scale factors, order statistics concept, Beta and Bernstein distribution transformations and also a constructive method. Based on the daily excess returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index we checked the empirical importance of the conditional skewness assumption on the relation between risk and return on the Warsaw Stock Market. We present posterior probabilities of all competing specifications as well as the posterior analysis of the positive sign of the tested relationship.

  15. Vulnerability of networks of interacting Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocarev, L; Zlatanov, N; Trajanov, D

    2010-05-13

    The concept of vulnerability is introduced for a model of random, dynamical interactions on networks. In this model, known as the influence model, the nodes are arranged in an arbitrary network, while the evolution of the status at a node is according to an internal Markov chain, but with transition probabilities that depend not only on the current status of that node but also on the statuses of the neighbouring nodes. Vulnerability is treated analytically and numerically for several networks with different topological structures, as well as for two real networks--the network of infrastructures and the EU power grid--identifying the most vulnerable nodes of these networks.

  16. Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process-based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear-edges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Gutiérrez, Emilia; González Rouco, Fidel; Gazol, Antonio; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Linares, Juan Carlos; Seftigen, Kristina

    2017-07-01

    Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought-prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear-edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear-edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree-ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process-based Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite growth model and climate-growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO 2 emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear-edge. By contrast, growth of high-elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of -10.7% and -16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear-edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear-edge stands. Our modeling

  17. Drivers of soil organic matter vulnerability to climate change, Part II: RothC modelling of carbon dynamics including radiocarbon data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studer, Mirjam S.; Abiven, Samuel; González Domínguez, Beatriz R.; Hagedorn, Frank; Reisser, Moritz; Walthert, Lorenz; Zimmermann, Stephan; Niklaus, Pascal A.

    2016-04-01

    It is still largely unknown what drives the vulnerability of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to climate change, i.e. the likelihood of a soil to loose its SOC along with the change in environmental conditions. Our objective is to assess the SOC vulnerability of Swiss forest soils and identify its potential drivers: climate (temperature, soil moisture), soil (clay content, pH) and landscape (slope, aspect) properties. Fifty-four sites were selected for balanced spatial and driver magnitudes distribution. We measured the SOC characteristics (content and radiocarbon) and studied the C decomposition by laboratory soil incubations (details in Part I, abstract by B. González Domínguez). In order to assess the current SOC pool distribution and its radiocarbon signatures, we extended the Rothamsted Carbon (RothC) model with radiocarbon (14C) isotope modelling (RothCiso). The RothC model distinguishes four active SOC pools, decomposable and resistant plant material, microbial biomass and humified organic matter, and an inert SOC pool (Jenkinson 1990). The active pools are decomposed and mineralized to CO2 by first order kinetics. The RothCiso assigns all pools a 14C signature, based on the atmospheric 14C concentrations of the past century (plant C inputs) and their turnover. Currently we constrain the model with 14C signatures measured on the 54 fresh and their corresponding archived bulk soil samples, taken 12-24 years before. We were able to reproduce the measured radiocarbon concentrations of the SOC with the RothCiso and first results indicate, that the assumption of an inert SOC pool, that is radiocarbon dead, is not appropriate. In a second step we will compare the SOC mean residence time assessed by the two methodological approaches - incubation (C efflux based) and modelling (C stock based) - and relate it to the environmental drivers mentioned above. With the combination of the two methodological approaches and 14C analysis we hope to gain more insights into

  18. Vulnerable self, poor understanding of others' minds, threat anticipation and cognitive biases as triggers for delusional experience in schizophrenia: a theoretical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvatore, Giampaolo; Lysaker, Paul H; Popolo, Raffaele; Procacci, Michele; Carcione, Antonino; Dimaggio, Giancarlo

    2012-01-01

    It remains unclear what processes lead to the establishment of persecutory delusions in acute phases of schizophrenia. Recently, it has been argued that persecutory delusions arise from an interaction among a range of emotional, cognitive and social factors. In this work, we explored this possibility by first discussing the relevant aspects of recent theoretical models of the causes of persecutory delusions. Then, we offered an analysis of the literature, illustrated with clinical observations suggesting that persecutory delusions are triggered during stressful intersubjective transactions by the interactions of (a) an alteration in empathetic perspective taking and in pragmatic understanding of others' minds; (b) a perception/representation of the self as vulnerable or subordinate and of the other as dominant and threatening; and (c) a hyperfunctioning of the threat/self-protection system when faced with perceived danger. Implications for future research and treatment of people suffering from this symptom are discussed. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Application of Markowitz model in analysing risk and return a case study of BSE stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manas Pandey

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the optimal portfolio formation using real life data subject to two different constraint sets is attempted. It is a theoretical framework for the analysis of risk return choices. Decisions are based on the concept of efficient portfolios. Markowitz portfolio analysis gives as output an efficient frontier on which each portfolio is the highest return earning portfolio for a specified level of risk. The investors can reduce their risks and can maximize their return from the investment, The Markowitz portfolio selections were obtained by solving the portfolio optimization problems to get maximum total returns, constrained by minimum allowable risk level. Investors can get lot of information knowledge about how to invest when to invest and why to invest in the particular portfolio. It basically calculates the standard deviation and returns for each of the feasible portfolios and identifies the efficient frontier, the boundary of the feasible portfolios of increasing returns

  20. Nuclear material production cycle vulnerability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bott, T.F.

    1996-01-01

    This paper discusses a method for rapidly and systematically identifying vulnerable equipment in a nuclear material or similar production process and ranking that equipment according to its attractiveness to a malevolent attacker. A multistep approach was used in the analysis. First, the entire production cycle was modeled as a flow diagram. This flow diagram was analyzed using graph theoretical methods to identify processes in the production cycle and their locations. Models of processes that were judged to be particularly vulnerable based on the cycle analysis then were developed in greater detail to identify equipment in that process that is vulnerable to intentional damage

  1. Are older people a vulnerable group? Philosophical and bioethical perspectives on ageing and vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozzaro, Claudia; Boldt, Joachim; Schweda, Mark

    2018-05-01

    The elderly are often considered a vulnerable group in public and academic bioethical debates and regulations. In this paper, we examine and challenge this assumption and its ethical implications. We begin by systematically delineating the different concepts of vulnerability commonly used in bioethics, before then examining whether these concepts can be applied to old age. We argue that old age should not, in and of itself, be used as a marker of vulnerability, since ageing is a process that can develop in a variety of different ways and is not always associated with particular experiences of vulnerability. We, therefore, turn to more fundamental phenomenological considerations in order to reconstruct from a first person perspective the intricate interconnections between the experiences of ageing and vulnerability. According to this account, ageing and old age are phenomena in which the basic anthropological vulnerability of human beings can manifest itself in an increased likelihood of harm and exploitation. Thus, we plead for a combined model of vulnerability that helps to avoid problems related to the current concepts of vulnerability. We conclude first that old age as such is not a sufficient criterion for being categorized as vulnerable in applied ethics, and second that reflections on ageing can help to develop a better understanding of the central role of vulnerability in human existence and in applied ethics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Role of Travel Motivations, Perceived Risks and Travel Constraints on Destination Image and Visit Intention in Medical Tourism: Theoretical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Mohammad J; Chelliah, Shankar; Haron, Mahmod S; Ahmed, Sahrish

    2017-02-01

    Travel motivations, perceived risks and travel constraints, along with the attributes and characteristics of medical tourism destinations, are important issues in medical tourism. Although the importance of these factors is already known, a comprehensive theoretical model of the decision-making process of medical tourists has yet to be established, analysing the intricate relationships between the different variables involved. This article examines a large body of literature on both medical and conventional tourism in order to propose a comprehensive theoretical framework of medical tourism decision-making. Many facets of this complex phenomenon require further empirical investigation.

  3. Role of Travel Motivations, Perceived Risks and Travel Constraints on Destination Image and Visit Intention in Medical Tourism; Theoretical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad J. Khan

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Travel motivations, perceived risks and travel constraints, along with the attributes and characteristics of medical tourism destinations, are important issues in medical tourism. Although the importance of these factors is already known, a comprehensive theoretical model of the decision-making process of medical tourists has yet to be established, analysing the intricate relationships between the different variables involved. This article examines a large body of literature on both medical and conventional tourism in order to propose a comprehensive theoretical framework of medical tourism decision-making. Many facets of this complex phenomenon require further empirical investigation.

  4. Measurement and Modeling of Ecosystem Risk and Recovery for In Situ Treatment of Contaminated Sediments. Phase 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    TITLE AND SUBTITLE Measurement and Modeling of Ecosystem Risk and Recovery for In Sit T t t f C t i t d S di t 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER W912HQ-10-C...Choi was supported in part by a Samsung Scholarship. Collaboration with Newcastle University was facilitated by the Leverhulme Trust, grant FOO 125/AA...and nitrogen deposited on porous alumina 4.2 147.6 Weak Preliminary tests to check the recovery of the selected CCMP from sediment was

  5. Women’s opinion on the justification of physical spousal violence: A quantitative approach to model the most vulnerable households in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Bangladesh is a culturally conservative nation with limited freedom for women. A number of studies have evaluated intimate partner violence (IPV) and spousal physical violence in Bangladesh; however, the views of women have been rarely discussed in a quantitative manner. Three nationwide surveys in Bangladesh (2007, 2011, and 2014) were analyzed in this study to characterize the most vulnerable households, where women themselves accepted spousal physical violence as a general norm. 31.3%, 31.9% and 28.7% women in the surveys found justification for physical violence in household in 2007, 2011 and 2014 respectively. The binary logistic model showed wealth index, education of both women and their partner, religion, geographical division, decision making freedom and marital age as significant household contributors for women’s perspective in all the three years. Women in rich households and the highly educated were found to be 40% and 50% less likely to accept domestic physical violence compared to the poorest and illiterate women. Similarly, women who got married before 18 years were 20% more likely accept physical violence in the family as a norm. Apart from these particular groups (richest, highly educated and married after 18 years), other groups had around 30% acceptance rate of household violence. For any successful attempt to reduce spousal physical violence in the traditional patriarchal society of Bangladesh, interventions must target the most vulnerable households and the geographical areas where women experience spousal violence. Although this paper focuses on women’s attitudes, it is important that any intervention scheme should be devised to target both men and women. PMID:29161277

  6. Conceptualizing a Dynamic Fall Risk Model Including Intrinsic Risks and Exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klenk, Jochen; Becker, Clemens; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Schwickert, Lars; Rapp, Kilan; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Todd, Chris; Lord, Stephen R; Kerse, Ngaire

    2017-11-01

    Falls are a major cause of injury and disability in older people, leading to serious health and social consequences including fractures, poor quality of life, loss of independence, and institutionalization. To design and provide adequate prevention measures, accurate understanding and identification of person's individual fall risk is important. However, to date, the performance of fall risk models is weak compared with models estimating, for example, cardiovascular risk. This deficiency may result from 2 factors. First, current models consider risk factors to be stable for each person and not change over time, an assumption that does not reflect real-life experience. Second, current models do not consider the interplay of individual exposure including type of activity (eg, walking, undertaking transfers) and environmental risks (eg, lighting, floor conditions) in which activity is performed. Therefore, we posit a dynamic fall risk model consisting of intrinsic risk factors that vary over time and exposure (activity in context). eHealth sensor technology (eg, smartphones) begins to enable the continuous measurement of both the above factors. We illustrate our model with examples of real-world falls from the FARSEEING database. This dynamic framework for fall risk adds important aspects that may improve understanding of fall mechanisms, fall risk models, and the development of fall prevention interventions. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-04-01

    Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

  8. County Population Vulnerability

    Data.gov (United States)

    City and County of Durham, North Carolina — This layer summarizes the social vulnerability index for populations within each county in the United States at scales 1:3m and below. It answers the question...

  9. Web Application Vulnerabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Yadav, Bhanu

    2014-01-01

    Web application security has been a major issue in information technology since the evolvement of dynamic web application. The main objective of this project was to carry out a detailed study on the top three web application vulnerabilities such as injection, cross site scripting, broken authentication and session management, present the situation where an application can be vulnerable to these web threats and finally provide preventative measures against them. ...

  10. Cumulative Risk and Impact Modeling on Environmental Chemical and Social Stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hongtai; Wang, Aolin; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Lam, Juleen; Sirota, Marina; Padula, Amy; Woodruff, Tracey J

    2018-03-01

    The goal of this review is to identify cumulative modeling methods used to evaluate combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors. The specific review question is: What are the existing quantitative methods used to examine the cumulative impacts of exposures to environmental chemical and social stressors on health? There has been an increase in literature that evaluates combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors on health using regression models; very few studies applied other data mining and machine learning techniques to this problem. The majority of studies we identified used regression models to evaluate combined effects of multiple environmental and social stressors. With proper study design and appropriate modeling assumptions, additional data mining methods may be useful to examine combined effects of environmental and social stressors.

  11. Selective vulnerability in brain hypoxia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cervos-Navarro, J.; Diemer, Nils Henrik

    1991-01-01

    Neuropathology, selective vulnerability, brain hypoxia, vascular factors, excitotoxicity, ion homeostasis......Neuropathology, selective vulnerability, brain hypoxia, vascular factors, excitotoxicity, ion homeostasis...

  12. Application of the Beck model to stock markets: Value-at-Risk and portfolio risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozaki, M.; Sato, A.-H.

    2008-02-01

    We apply the Beck model, developed for turbulent systems that exhibit scaling properties, to stock markets. Our study reveals that the Beck model elucidates the properties of stock market returns and is applicable to practical use such as the Value-at-Risk estimation and the portfolio analysis. We perform empirical analysis with daily/intraday data of the S&P500 index return and find that the volatility fluctuation of real markets is well-consistent with the assumptions of the Beck model: The volatility fluctuates at a much larger time scale than the return itself and the inverse of variance, or “inverse temperature”, β obeys Γ-distribution. As predicted by the Beck model, the distribution of returns is well-fitted by q-Gaussian distribution of Tsallis statistics. The evaluation method of Value-at-Risk (VaR), one of the most significant indicators in risk management, is studied for q-Gaussian distribution. Our proposed method enables the VaR evaluation in consideration of tail risk, which is underestimated by the variance-covariance method. A framework of portfolio risk assessment under the existence of tail risk is considered. We propose a multi-asset model with a single volatility fluctuation shared by all assets, named the single β model, and empirically examine the agreement between the model and an imaginary portfolio with Dow Jones indices. It turns out that the single β model gives good approximation to portfolios composed of the assets with non-Gaussian and correlated returns.

  13. Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xia, Jianyang; McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David

    2017-01-01

    productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m−2 yr−1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m−2 yr−1) over...... and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost...... regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change....

  14. Risco e vulnerabilidade nas práticas dos profissionais de saúde Riesgo y vulnerabilidad en las prácticas laborales de los profesionales del área de la salud Risk and vulnerability in the practice of professional healthcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Luís Guedes dos Santos

    2012-06-01

    concienciación profesional.The purpose of this study is to analyze the risks and vulnerability found in professional healthcare and the safe practices adopted, based on academic research in the field of healthcare and nursing, by means of an integrative review. The articles were found in the LILACS and SCIELO databases, from the years 2005-2010, in a search for the descriptors vulnerability, risk, and occupational and personal health risks, establishing a sample of 21 articles. In basic healthcare, risks and vulnerabilities are related to the lack of resources needed for work, physical violence and emotional strain. In a hospital context, the problems are related to accidents with biological materials caused by improper use and failure to adopt protective measures, as well as excessive work and self-confidence. The importance of implementing public policies in worker health to improve working conditions and provide greater satisfaction and professional awareness is emphasized.

  15. A heuristic model for risk and cost impacts of plant outage maintenance schedule

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammad Hadi Hadavi, S.

    2009-01-01

    Cost and risk are two major competing criteria in maintenance optimization problems. If a plant is forced to shutdown because of accident or fear of accident happening, beside loss of revenue, it causes damage to the credibility and reputation of the business operation. In this paper a heuristic model for incorporating three compelling optimization criteria (i.e., risk, cost, and loss) into a single evaluation function is proposed. Such a model could be used in any evaluation engine of outage maintenance schedule optimizer. It is attempted to make the model realistic and to address the ongoing challenges facing a schedule planner in a simple and commonly understandable fashion. Two simple competing schedules for the NPP feedwater system are examined against the model. The results show that while the model successfully addresses the current challenges for outage maintenance optimization, it properly demonstrates the dynamics of schedule in regards to risk, cost, and losses endured by maintenance schedule, particularly when prolonged outage and lack of maintenance for equipments in need of urgent care are of concern.

  16. Estimating internal exposure risks by the relative risk and the National Institute of Health risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehta, S.K.; Sarangapani, R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents tabulations of risk (R) and person-years of life lost (PYLL) for acute exposures of individual organs at ages 20 and 40 yrs for the Indian and Japanese populations to illustrate the effect of age at exposure in the two models. Results are also presented for the organ wise nominal probability coefficients (NPC) and PYLL for individual organs for the age distributed Indian population by the two models. The results presented show that for all organs the estimates of PYLL and NPC for the Indian population are lower than those for the Japanese population by both models except for oesophagus, breast and ovary by the relative risk (RR) model, where the opposite trend is observed. The results also show that the Indian all-cancer values of NPC averaged over the two models is 2.9 x 10 -2 Sv -1 , significantly lower than the world average value of 5x10 -2 Sv -1 estimated by the ICRP. (author). 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  17. Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: modeling the risks and health-economic impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George; Nelson, E Anthony S; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P

    2010-12-01

    Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost-effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic influenza vaccines, other vaccines (notably pneumococcal), antiviral treatments and other drug treatment (e.g., antibiotics to target potential complications of influenza). However, these models may be too limited to capture the full macro-economic impact of pandemic influenza. The aim of this article is to summarize current health-economic modeling approaches to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, and to compare these with more recently proposed alternative methods. We conclude that it is useful, particularly for policy and planning purposes, to extend modeling concepts through the application of alternative approaches, including insurers' risk theories, human capital approaches and sectoral and full macro-economic modeling. This article builds on a roundtable meeting of the Pandemic Influenza Economic Impact Group that was held in Boston, MA, USA, in December 2008.

  18. Modelling critical factors affecting the distribution of the vulnerable endemic Eastern Iberian barbel (Luciobarbus guiraonis in Mediterranean rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. J. OLAYA-MARIN

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Luciobarbus guiraonis (Eastern Iberian barbel is an endemic fish species restricted to Spain, mainly distributed in the Júcar River Basin District. Its study is important because there is little knowledge about its biology and ecology. To improve the knowledge about the species distribution and habitat requirements, nonlinear modelling was carried out to predict the presence/absence and density of the Eastern Iberian barbel, based on 155 sampling sites distributed throughout the Júcar River Basin District (Eastern Iberian Peninsula. We used multilayer feed-forward artificial neural networks (ANN to represent nonlinear relationships between L. guiraonis descriptors and variables regarding the physical habitat and biological components (macroinvertebrates, fish, riparian forest. The gradient descent algorithm was implemented to find the optimal model parameters; the importance of the ANN’s input variables was determined by the partial derivatives method. The predictive power of the model was evaluated with the Cohen’s kappa (k, the correctly classified instances (CCI, and the area under the curve (AUC of the receiver operator characteristic (ROC plots. The best model predicted presence/absence with a high performance (k= 0.66, CCI= 87% and AUC= 0.85; the prediction of density was moderate (CCI = 62%, AUC=0.71 and k= 0.43. The fundamental variables describing the presence/absence were; solar radiation (the highest contribution was observed between 2000 and 4200 WH/m2, drainage area (with the strongest influence between 3000 and 5.000 km2, and the proportion of exotic fish species (with relevant contribution between 50 and 100%. In the density model, the most important variables were the coefficient of variation of mean annual flows (relative importance of 50.5% and the proportion of exotic fish species (24.4%. The models provide important information about the relation of L. guiraonis with biotic and abiotic variables, this new knowledge can

  19. Evaluating permafrost thaw vulnerabilities and hydrologic impacts in boreal Alaska (USA) watersheds using field data and cryohydrogeologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walvoord, M. A.; Voss, C.; Ebel, B. A.; Minsley, B. J.

    2017-12-01

    Permafrost environments undergo changes in hydraulic, thermal, chemical, and mechanical subsurface properties upon thaw. These property changes must be considered in addition to alterations in hydrologic, thermal, and topographic boundary conditions when evaluating shifts in the movement and storage of water in arctic and sub-arctic boreal regions. Advances have been made in the last several years with respect to multiscale geophysical characterization of the subsurface and coupled fluid and energy transport modeling of permafrost systems. Ongoing efforts are presented that integrate field data with cryohydrogeologic modeling to better understand and anticipate changes in subsurface water resources, fluxes, and flowpaths caused by climate warming and permafrost thawing. Analyses are based on field data from several sites in interior Alaska (USA) that span a broad north-south transition from continuous to discontinuous permafrost. These data include soil hydraulic and thermal properties and shallow permafrost distribution. The data guide coupled fluid and energy flow simulations that incorporate porewater liquid/ice phase change and the accompanying modifications in hydraulic and thermal subsurface properties. Simulations are designed to assess conditions conducive to active layer thickening and talik development, both of which are expected to affect groundwater storage and flow. Model results provide a framework for identifying factors that control the rates of permafrost thaw and associated hydrologic responses, which in turn influence the fate and transport of carbon.

  20. Spatial modelling of population at risk and PM 2.5 exposure index: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, monitoring, spatial representation and development of associated risk indicators have been major problems undermining formulation of relevant policy on air quality. This study used ... to environmental health. Key Words: Population at risk, PM2.5; Spatial modeling, GIS, Exposure index, environmental health ...

  1. A conceptual model of psychosocial risk and protective factors for excessive gestational weight gain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Briony; Skouteris, Helen; McCabe, Marita; Milgrom, Jeannette; Kent, Bridie; Herring, Sharon J; Hartley-Clark, Linda; Gale, Janette

    2013-02-01

    nearly half of all women exceed the guideline recommended pregnancy weight gain for their Body Mass Index (BMI) category. Excessive gestational weight gain (GWG) is correlated positively with postpartum weight retention and is a predictor of long-term, higher BMI in mothers and their children. Psychosocial factors are generally not targeted in GWG behaviour change interventions, however, multifactorial, conceptual models that include these factors, may be useful in determining the pathways that contribute to excessive GWG. We propose a conceptual model, underpinned by health behaviour change theory, which outlines the psychosocial determinants of GWG, including the role of motivation and self-efficacy towards healthy behaviours. This model is based on a review of the existing literature in this area. there is increasing evidence to show that psychosocial factors, such as increased depressive symptoms, anxiety, lower self-esteem and body image dissatisfaction, are associated with excessive GWG. What is less known is how these factors might lead to excessive GWG. Our conceptual model proposes a pathway of factors that affect GWG, and may be useful for understanding the mechanisms by which interventions impact on weight management during pregnancy. This involves tracking the relationships among maternal psychosocial factors, including body image concerns, motivation to adopt healthy lifestyle behaviours, confidence in adopting healthy lifestyle behaviours for the purposes of weight management, and actual behaviour changes. health-care providers may improve weight gain outcomes in pregnancy if they assess and address psychosocial factors in pregnancy. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk/benefits of fast breeder reactors societal risks and accident modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.R.

    1979-01-01

    A special feature of the Fast Breeder Reactor is the possibility of fuel vaporisation, hence accidents may have more severe consequences than thermal reactors. This article discusses the process of accident modelling, the identification and assessment of risk, not yet incurred. 10 refs

  3. Defining energy vulnerability in mobility. Measuring energy vulnerability in mobility. Acting against energy vulnerability in mobility. Discussing energy vulnerability in mobility. Task no. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jouffe, Yves; Massot, Marie-Helene; Noble, Cyprien

    2015-01-01

    Extensive expansion of urban areas generates transportation needs and energy expenses for mobility. Households already impacted by fuel poverty also suffer from energy vulnerability in their mobility. This report was prepared in the framework of the study of fuel poverty in France in the light of several indicators from existing inquiries, databases and modeling tools. The report is organised in 4 parts dealing with: the definition of energy vulnerability in mobility, its measurement, the possible remedial actions, and the discussions about energy vulnerability in mobility through working group meetings, respectively

  4. Use of Monte Carlo modeling approach for evaluating risk and environmental compliance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higley, K.A.; Strenge, D.L.

    1988-09-01

    Evaluating compliance with environmental regulations, specifically those regulations that pertain to human exposure, can be a difficult task. Historically, maximum individual or worst-case exposures have been calculated as a basis for evaluating risk or compliance with such regulations. However, these calculations may significantly overestimate exposure and may not provide a clear understanding of the uncertainty in the analysis. The use of Monte Carlo modeling techniques can provide a better understanding of the potential range of exposures and the likelihood of high (worst-case) exposures. This paper compares the results of standard exposure estimation techniques with the Monte Carlo modeling approach. The authors discuss the potential application of this approach for demonstrating regulatory compliance, along with the strengths and weaknesses of the approach. Suggestions on implementing this method as a routine tool in exposure and risk analyses are also presented. 16 refs., 5 tabs

  5. Does litter size variation affect models of terrestrial carnivore extinction risk and management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleanor S Devenish-Nelson

    Full Text Available Individual variation in both survival and reproduction has the potential to influence extinction risk. Especially for rare or threatened species, reliable population models should adequately incorporate demographic uncertainty. Here, we focus on an important form of demographic stochasticity: variation in litter sizes. We use terrestrial carnivores as an example taxon, as they are frequently threatened or of economic importance. Since data on intraspecific litter size variation are often sparse, it is unclear what probability distribution should be used to describe the pattern of litter size variation for multiparous carnivores.We used litter size data on 32 terrestrial carnivore species to test the fit of 12 probability distributions. The influence of these distributions on quasi-extinction probabilities and the probability of successful disease control was then examined for three canid species - the island fox Urocyon littoralis, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, and the African wild dog Lycaon pictus. Best fitting probability distributions differed among the carnivores examined. However, the discretised normal distribution provided the best fit for the majority of species, because variation among litter-sizes was often small. Importantly, however, the outcomes of demographic models were generally robust to the distribution used.These results provide reassurance for those using demographic modelling for the management of less studied carnivores in which litter size variation is estimated using data from species with similar reproductive attributes.

  6. Surface water flood risk and management strategies for London: An Agent-Based Model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenkins Katie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is recognised as one of the most common and costliest natural disasters in England. Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall is known as ‘surface water flooding’, considered to be the most likely cause of flood events and one of the greatest short-term climate risks for London. In this paper we present results from a novel Agent-Based Model designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options, different agents, and the role of flood insurance and the flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The model illustrates how investment in adaptation options could reduce London’s surface water flood risk, today and in the future. However, benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, it offers no additional benefits in terms of overall risk reduction, and will face increasing pressure due to rising surface water flood risk in the future. The modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for reviewing the proposed Flood Re scheme, as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes, and broader multi-sectoral partnerships, to incentivise flood risk management in the UK and internationally.

  7. Comparative studies of groundwater vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria, Rizka

    2018-02-01

    Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small-moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.

  8. Hydroclimatic risks and uncertainty in the global power sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gidden, Matthew; Byers, Edward; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Parkinson, Simon; Raptis, Catherine; Rogelj, Joeri; Satoh, Yusuke; van Vliet, Michelle; Wada, Yoshide; Krey, Volker; Langan, Simon; Riahi, Keywan

    2017-04-01

    Approximately 80% of the world's electricity supply depends on reliable water resources. Thermoelectric and hydropower plants have been impacted by low flows and floods in recent years, notably in the US, Brazil, France, and China, amongst other countries. The dependence on reliable flows imputes a large vulnerability to the electricity supply system due to hydrological variability and the impacts of climate change. Using an updated dataset of global electricity capacity with global climate and hydrological data from the ISI-MIP project, we present an overview analysis of power sector vulnerability to hydroclimatic risks, including low river flows and peak flows. We show how electricity generation in individual countries and transboundary river basins can be impacted, helping decision-makers identify key at-risk geographical regions. Furthermore, our use of a multi-model ensemble of climate and hydrological models allows us to quantify the uncertainty of projected impacts, such that basin-level risks and uncertainty can be compared.

  9. Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to global warming. Part I: model description and role of heat generated by organic matter decomposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khvorostyanov, D.V.; Ciais, G. (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l' Environnement, Saclay (France)); Krinner, G. (Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, St Martin d' Heres (France)). e-mail: Dimitry.Khvorostiyanov@lsce.ipsl.fr; Heimann, M. (Max-Planck Inst. of Biogeochemistry, Jena (DE)); Zimov, S.A. (Northeast Science Station, Cherskii (RU))

    2008-07-01

    We constructed a new model to study the sensitivity of permafrost carbon stocks to future climate warming. The one-dimensional model solves an equation for diffusion of heat penetrating from the overlying atmosphere and takes into account additional in situ heat production by active soil microorganisms. Decomposition of frozen soil organic matter and produced CO{sub 2} and methane fluxes result from an interplay of soil heat conduction and phase transitions, respiration, methanogenesis and methanotrophy processes. Respiration and methanotrophy consume soil oxygen and thus can only develop in an aerated top-soil column. In contrast, methanogenesis is not limited by oxygen and can be sustained within the deep soil, releasing sufficient heat to further thaw in depth the frozen carbon-rich soil organic matter. Heat production that accompanies decomposition and methanotrophy can be an essential process providing positive feedback to atmospheric warming through self-sustaining transformation of initially frozen soil carbon into CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4}. This supplementary heat becomes crucial, however, only under certain climate conditions. Oxygen limitation to soil respiration slows down the process, so that the mean flux of carbon released during the phase of intense decomposition is more than two times less than without oxygen limitation. Taking into account methanogenesis increases the mean carbon flux by 20%. Part II of this study deals with mobilization of frozen carbon stock in transient climate change scenarios with more elaborated methane module, which makes it possible to consider more general cases with various site configurations. Part I (this manuscript) studies mobilization of 400 GtC carbon stock of the Yedoma in response to a stepwise rapid warming focusing on the role of supplementary heat that is released to the soil during decomposition of organic matter

  10. Model estimation of claim risk and premium for motor vehicle insurance by using Bayesian method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukono; Riaman; Lesmana, E.; Wulandari, R.; Napitupulu, H.; Supian, S.

    2018-01-01

    Risk models need to be estimated by the insurance company in order to predict the magnitude of the claim and determine the premiums charged to the insured. This is intended to prevent losses in the future. In this paper, we discuss the estimation of risk model claims and motor vehicle insurance premiums using Bayesian methods approach. It is assumed that the frequency of claims follow a Poisson distribution, while a number of claims assumed to follow a Gamma distribution. The estimation of parameters of the distribution of the frequency and amount of claims are made by using Bayesian methods. Furthermore, the estimator distribution of frequency and amount of claims are used to estimate the aggregate risk models as well as the value of the mean and variance. The mean and variance estimator that aggregate risk, was used to predict the premium eligible to be charged to the insured. Based on the analysis results, it is shown that the frequency of claims follow a Poisson distribution with parameter values λ is 5.827. While a number of claims follow the Gamma distribution with parameter values p is 7.922 and θ is 1.414. Therefore, the obtained values of the mean and variance of the aggregate claims respectively are IDR 32,667,489.88 and IDR 38,453,900,000,000.00. In this paper the prediction of the pure premium eligible charged to the insured is obtained, which amounting to IDR 2,722,290.82. The prediction of the claims and premiums aggregate can be used as a reference for the insurance company’s decision-making in management of reserves and premiums of motor vehicle insurance.

  11. Assessment of surface water vulnerability to pesticide contamination using the modeling tool PegOpera: Application in North Tunisia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boukari, Amira; Habaieb, Hamadi; Deliège, Jean-François

    2017-04-01

    Tunisia is a country in which three quarters of the territory is arid to semi-arid with limited water resources. Decreasing water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water stakeholders particularly in rural areas and poor communities. The main factors influencing water availability in this Mediterranean country is, among others, overexploitation of non-renewable resources and diffuse pollution. Due to intensive agriculture in proximity of rivers and continuous use of pesticides, there is a potential risk for contamination of waterbodies by the agrochemicals used. This could have a negative impact on agricultural production as well as human health and threaten in priority the north part of the country where 82% of surface water is available. Despite this situation, no catchment monitoring program is currently put in place since it is expensive and require large investment. In this study, we established a methodology using the PegOpera modeling tool to assess the potential risk of pesticides contamination of surface water at the scale of a rural catchment situated in the northwestern part of Tunisia, the Joumine basin, draining an area of 418 km2 and devoted to agriculture, mainly rainfed cereal crops. In the downstream part of the basin, the Joumine dam was built in 1984 to provide water for irrigation and drinking purposes. We performed a survey with catchment farmers to report management practices in the area as well as spatial and temporal information about pesticide compounds, timing and application rate from which we identified the most used pesticide molecules. The SIRIS method (System of Integration of Risk with Interactions of Scores) was applied to classify compounds used according to the risk that they present to the aquatic environment and therefore to identify those chemicals that should be monitored (Guerbet et al., 2002; Le Gall et al., 2007). According to the results of this classification, we selected 6 molecules to study in

  12. Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, N.; Arabidze, V.; Varazanashvili, O.; Gugeshashvili, T.

    2012-04-01

    Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia Nino Tsereteli, Vakhtang Arabidze, Otar Varazanashvili, Tengiz Gugeshashvili The risk always exists when cities are built on. Population growth in cities and urbanization in natural hazard-prone zones leads to infrastructure expansion. The goal of the society is to construct natural hazards resistant infrastructure and minimize the expected losses. This is a complicated task as there is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard and vulnerability. Assessment of vulnerability is vital in risk analysis, as vulnerability is defined in many different ways. Work presented here mostly deals with assessment of infrastructure's and population vulnerability at national level in Georgia. This work was initiated by NATO SFP project "seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Southern Caucasus - Eastern Turkey Energy Corridors" and the two work packages WP4 (seismic risk) and WP5 (city scenarios) of risk module of EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) project. First step was creation databases (inventory) of elements at risk in GIS. Element at risk were the buildings, population, pipelines. The inventories was studied and Created in GIS for the following categories: Building material, number of stories, number of entrances, condition of building, building period. For pipelines pipe tipe (continous or segmented), material, pipe diameter. Very important is to estimate the initial cost of building for assessment of economic losses. From this purpose the attempt was done and the algorithm of this estimation were prepared taking into account obtained the inventory. Build quality, reliability and durability are of special importance to corresponding state agencies and include different aesthetic, engineering, practical, social, technological and economical aspects. The necessity that all of these aspects satisfy existing normative requirements becomes evident as the building and structures come into exploitation

  13. Currency risk and prices of oil and petroleum products: a simulation with a quantitative model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aniasi, L.; Ottavi, D.; Rubino, E.; Saracino, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper analyzes the relationship between the exchange rates of the US Dollar against the four major European currencies and the prices of oil and its main products in those countries. In fact, the sensitivity of the prices to the exchange rate movements is of fundamental importance for the refining and distribution industries of importing countries. The result of the analysis shows that in neither free market conditions, as those present in Great Britain, France and Germany, nor in regulated markets, i.e. the italian one, do the variations of petroleum product prices fully absorb the variation of the exchange rates. In order to assess the above relationship, we first tested the order of co-integration of the time series of exchange rates of EMS currencies with those of international prices of oil and its derivative products; then we used a transfer-function model to reproduce the quantitative relationships between those variables. Using these results, we then reproduced domestic price functions with partial adjustment mechanisms. Finally, we used the above model to run a simulation of the deviation from the steady-state pattern caused by exchange-rate exogenous shocks. 21 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

  14. Peritraumatic startle response predicts the vulnerability to develop PTSD-like behaviors in rats: a model for peritraumatic dissociation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinwen eDong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Peritraumatic dissociation, a state characterized by alteration in perception and reduced awareness of surroundings, is considered to be a risk factor for the development of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD. However, the predictive ability of peritraumatic dissociation is questioned for the inconsistent results in different time points of assessment. The startle reflex is an objective behavioral measurement of defensive response to abrupt and intense sensory stimulus of surroundings, with potential to be used as an assessment on the dissociative status in both humans and rodents. The present study examined the predictive effect of acoustic startle response (ASR in different time points around the traumatic event in an animal model of PTSD. The PTSD-like symptoms, including hyperarousal, avoidance, and contextual fear, were assessed 2-3 weeks post-trauma. The results showed that 1 the startle amplitude attenuated immediate after intense footshock in almost half of the stress animals, 2 the attenuated startle responses at 1 hour but not 24 hours after stress predicted the development of severe PTSD-like symptoms. These data indicate that the startle alteration at the immediate period after trauma, including 1 hour, is more important in PTSD prediction than 24 hours after trauma. Our study also suggests that the startle attenuation immediate after intense stress may serve as an objective measurement of peritraumatic dissociation in rats.

  15. A multilevel structural equation modeling analysis of vulnerabilities and resilience resources influencing affective adaptation to chronic pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturgeon, John A; Zautra, Alex J; Arewasikporn, Anne

    2014-02-01

    The processes of individual adaptation to chronic pain are complex and occur across multiple domains. We examined the social, cognitive, and affective context of daily pain adaptation in individuals with fibromyalgia and osteoarthritis. By using a sample of 260 women with fibromyalgia or osteoarthritis, we examined the contributions of pain catastrophizing, negative interpersonal events, and positive interpersonal events to daily negative and positive affect across 30days of daily diary data. Individual differences and daily fluctuations in predictor variables were estimated simultaneously by utilizing multilevel structural equation modeling techniques. The relationships between pain and negative and positive affect were mediated by stable and day-to-day levels of pain catastrophizing as well as day-to-day positive interpersonal events, but not negative interpersonal events. There were significant and independent contributions of pain catastrophizing and positive interpersonal events to adaptation to pain and pain-related affective dysregulation. These effects occur both between persons and within a person's everyday life. Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. MYC association with cancer risk and a new model of MYC-mediated repression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Michael D

    2014-07-01

    MYC is one of the most frequently mutated and overexpressed genes in human cancer but the regulation of MYC expression and the ability of MYC protein to repress cellular genes (including itself) have remained mysterious. Recent genome-wide association studies show that many genetic polymorphisms associated with disease risk map to distal regulatory elements that regulate the MYC promoter through large chromatin loops. Cancer risk-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contain more potent enhancer activity, promoting higher MYC levels and a greater risk of disease. The MYC promoter is also subject to complex regulatory circuits and limits its own expression by a feedback loop. A model for MYC autoregulation is discussed which involves a signaling pathway between the PTEN (phosphatase and tensin homolog) tumor suppressor and repressive histone modifications laid down by the EZH2 methyltransferase. Copyright © 2014 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

  17. A review of different perspectives on uncertainty and risk and an alternative modeling paradigm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samson, Sundeep; Reneke, James A.; Wiecek, Margaret M.

    2009-01-01

    The literature in economics, finance, operations research, engineering and in general mathematics is first reviewed on the subject of defining uncertainty and risk. The review goes back to 1901. Different perspectives on uncertainty and risk are examined and a new paradigm to model uncertainty and risk is proposed using relevant ideas from this study. This new paradigm is used to represent, aggregate and propagate uncertainty and interpret the resulting variability in a challenge problem developed by Oberkampf et al. [2004, Challenge problems: uncertainty in system response given uncertain parameters. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2004; 85(1): 11-9]. The challenge problem is further extended into a decision problem that is treated within a multicriteria decision making framework to illustrate how the new paradigm yields optimal decisions under uncertainty. The accompanying risk is defined as the probability of an unsatisfactory system response quantified by a random function of the uncertainty

  18. Effects of psychotropic agents on extinction of lever-press avoidance in a rat model of anxiety vulnerability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xilu eJiao

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Avoidance and its perseveration represent key features of anxiety disorders. Both pharmacological and behavioral approaches (i.e. anxiolytics and extinction therapy have been utilized to modulate avoidance behavior in patients. However, the outcome has not always been desirable. Part of the reason is attributed to the diverse neuropathology of anxiety disorders. Here, we investigated the effect of psychotropic drugs that target various monoamine systems on extinction of avoidance behavior using lever-press avoidance task. Here we used the Wistar-Kyoto (WKY rat, a unique rat model that exhibits facilitated avoidance and extinction resistance along with malfunction of the dopamine (DA system. Sprague Dawley (SD and WKY rats were trained to acquire lever-press avoidance. WKY rats acquired avoidance faster and to a higher level compared to SD rats. During pharmacological treatment, bupropion, and desipramine significantly reduced avoidance response selectively in WKY rats. However, after the discontinuation of drug treatment, only those WKY rats that were previously treated with desipramine exhibited lower avoidance response compared to the control group. In contrast, none of the psychotropic drugs facilitated avoidance extinction in SD rats. Instead, desipramine impaired avoidance extinction and increased non-reinforced response in SD rats. Interestingly, paroxetine, a widely used antidepressant and anxiolytic, exhibited the weakest effect in WKY rats and no effects at all in SD rats. Thus, our data suggest that malfunctions in brain catecholamine system could be one of the underlying etiologies of anxiety-like behavior, particularly avoidance perseveration. Pharmacological manipulation targeting DA and norepinephrine is more effective to facilitate extinction learning in this strain. The data from the present study may shed light on new pharmacological approaches to treat patients with anxiety disorders who are not responding to serotonin re

  19. Energy vulnerability relationships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaw, B.R.; Boesen, J.L.

    1998-02-01

    The US consumption of crude oil resources has been a steadily growing indicator of the vitality and strength of the US economy. At the same time import diversity has also been a rapidly developing dimension of the import picture. In the early 1970`s, embargoes of crude oil from Organization of Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) created economic and political havoc due to a significant lack of diversity and a unique set of economic, political and domestic regulatory circumstances. The continued rise of imports has again led to concerns over the security of our crude oil resource but threats to this system must be considered in light of the diversity and current setting of imported oil. This report develops several important issues concerning vulnerability to the disruption of oil imports: (1) The Middle East is not the major supplier of oil to the United States, (2) The US is not vulnerable to having its entire import stream disrupted, (3) Even in stable countries, there exist vulnerabilities to disruption of the export stream of oil, (4) Vulnerability reduction requires a focus on international solutions, and (5) DOE program and policy development must reflect the requirements of the diverse supply. Does this increasing proportion of imported oil create a {open_quotes}dependence{close_quotes}? Does this increasing proportion of imported oil present a vulnerability to {open_quotes}price shocks{close_quotes} and the tremendous dislocations experienced during the 1970`s? Finally, what is the vulnerability of supply disruptions from the current sources of imported oil? If oil is considered to be a finite, rapidly depleting resource, then the answers to these questions must be {open_quotes}yes.{close_quotes} However, if the supply of oil is expanding, and not limited, then dependence is relative to regional supply sources.

  20. Using a Large CYC-Based Ontology to Model and Predict Vulnerabilities at the Real-World Info-System Boundary

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shepard, Blake

    2001-01-01

    ...'. In this effort, we have added a tremendous amount of knowledge to the Cyc Knowledge Base that enables Cyc to reason about cyber and non-cyber vulnerabilities, electronic attacks, and the relation...

  1. Spatial differences in drought vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perčec Tadić, M.; Cindić, K.; Gajić-Čapka, M.; Zaninović, K.

    2012-04-01

    Drought causes the highest economic losses among all hydro-meteorological events in Croatia. It is the most frequent hazard, which produces the highest damages in the agricultural sector. The climate assessment in Croatia according to the aridity index (defined as the ratio of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) shows that the susceptibility to desertification is present in the warm part of the year and it is mostly pronounced in the Adriatic region and the eastern Croatia lowland. The evidence of more frequent extreme drought events in the last decade is apparent. These facts were motivation to study the drought risk assessment in Croatia. One step in this issue is the construction of the vulnerability map. This map is a complex combination of the geomorphologic and climatological inputs (maps) that are presumed to be natural factors which modify the amount of moisture in the soil. In this study, the first version of the vulnerability map is followed by the updated one that additionally includes the soil types and the land use classes. The first input considered is the geomorphologic slope angle calculated from the digital elevation model (DEM). The SRTM DEM of 100 m resolution is used. The steeper slopes are more likely to lose water and to become dryer. The second climatological parameter, the solar irradiation map, gives for the territory of Croatia the maximum irradiation on the coast. The next meteorological parameter that influences the drought vulnerability is precipitation which is in this assessment included through the precipitation variability expressed by the coefficient of variation. Larger precipitation variability is related with the higher drought vulnerability. The preliminary results for Croatia, according to the recommended procedure in the framework of Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe (DMCSEE project), show the most sensitive areas to drought in the southern Adriatic coast and eastern continental lowland.

  2. Assessment of vulnerable plaque composition by matching the deformation of a parametric plaque model to measured plaque deformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldewsing, Radj A; Schaar, Johannes A; Mastik, Frits; Oomens, Cees W J; van der Steen, Antonius F W

    2005-04-01

    Intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) elastography visualizes local radial strain of arteries in so-called elastograms to detect rupture-prone plaques. However, due to the unknown arterial stress distribution these elastograms cannot be directly interpreted as a morphology and material composition image. To overcome this limitation we have developed a method that reconstructs a Young's modulus image from an elastogram. This method is especially suited for thin-cap fibroatheromas (TCFAs), i.e., plaques with a media region containing a lipid pool covered by a cap. Reconstruction is done by a minimization algorithm that matches the strain image output, calculated with a parametric finite element model (PFEM) representation of a TCFA, to an elastogram by iteratively updating the PFEM geometry and material parameters. These geometry parameters delineate the TCFA media, lipid pool and cap regions by circles. The material parameter for each region is a Young's modulus, EM, EL, and EC, respectively. The method was successfully tested on computer-simulated TCFAs (n = 2), one defined by circles, the other by tracing TCFA histology, and additionally on a physical phantom (n = 1) having a stiff wall (measured EM = 16.8 kPa) with an eccentric soft region (measured EL = 4.2 kPa). Finally, it was applied on human coronary plaques in vitro (n = 1) and in vivo (n = 1). The corresponding simulated and measured elastograms of these plaques showed radial strain values from 0% up to 2% at a pressure differential of 20, 20, 1, 20, and 1 mmHg respectively. The used/reconstructed Young's moduli [kPa] were for the circular plaque EL = 50/66, EM = 1500/1484, EC = 2000/2047, for the traced plaque EL = 25/1, EM = 1000/1148, EC = 1500/1491, for the phantom EL = 4.2/4 kPa, EM = 16.8/16, for the in vitro plaque EL = n.a./29, EM = n.a./647, EC = n.a./1784 kPa and for the in vivo plaque EL = n.a./2, EM = n.a./188, Ec = n.a./188 kPa.

  3. Plutonium Vulnerability Management Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-03-01

    This Plutonium Vulnerability Management Plan describes the Department of Energy's response to the vulnerabilities identified in the Plutonium Working Group Report which are a result of the cessation of nuclear weapons production. The responses contained in this document are only part of an overall, coordinated approach designed to enable the Department to accelerate conversion of all nuclear materials, including plutonium, to forms suitable for safe, interim storage. The overall actions being taken are discussed in detail in the Department's Implementation Plan in response to the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) Recommendation 94-1. This is included as Attachment B

  4. Detecting C Program Vulnerabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Anton, Ermakov; Natalia, Kushik

    2011-01-01

    C/C++ language is widely used for developing tools in various applications, in particular, software tools for critical systems are often written in C language. Therefore, the security of such software should be thoroughly tested, i.e., the absence of vulnerabilities has to be confirmed. When detecting C program vulnerabilities static source code analysis can be used. In this paper, we present a short survey of existing software tools for such analysis and show that for some kinds of C code vu...

  5. Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitts, Mary A.; Madurai, Siram; Butler, Doug; Kerstman, Eric; Risin, Diana

    2008-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.

  6. Three-dimensional dose-response models of competing risks and natural life span

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raabe, O.G.

    1987-01-01

    Three-dimensional dose-rate/time/response surfaces for chronic exposure to carcinogens, toxicants, and ionizing radiation dramatically clarify the separate and interactive roles of competing risks. The three dimensions are average dose rate, exposure time, and risk. An illustration with computer graphics shows the contributions with the passage of time of the competing risks of death from radiation pneumonitis/fibrosis, lung cancer, and natural aging consequent to the inhalation of plutonium-239 dioxide by beagles. These relationships are further evaluated by mathematical stripping with three-dimensional illustrations that graphically show the resultant separate contribution of each fatal effect. Radiation pneumonitis predominates at high dose rates and lung cancer at intermediate dose rates. Low dose rates result in spontaneous deaths from natural aging, yielding a type of practical threshold for lung cancer induction. Risk assessment is benefited by the insights that become apparent with these three-dimensional models. The improved conceptualization afforded by them contributes to the planning and evaluation of epidemiological analyses and experimental studies involving chronic exposure to toxicants

  7. Evaluating sustainable adaptation strategies for vulnerable mega-deltas using system dynamics modelling: Rice agriculture in the Mekong Delta's An Giang Province, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Alexander; Darby, Stephen

    2016-07-15

    Challenging dynamics are unfolding in social-ecological systems around the globe as society attempts to mitigate and adapt to climate change while sustaining rapid local development. The IPCC's 5th assessment suggests these changing systems are susceptible to unforeseen and dangerous 'emergent risks'. An archetypal example is the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) where the river dyke network has been heightened and extended over the last decade with the dual objectives of (1) adapting the delta's 18 million inhabitants and their livelihoods to increasingly intense river-flooding, and (2) developing rice production through a shift from double to triple-cropping. Negative impacts have been associated with this shift, particularly in relation to its exclusion of fluvial sediment deposition from the floodplain. A deficit in our understanding of the dynamics of the rice-sediment system, which involve unintuitive delays, feedbacks, and tipping points, is addressed here, using a system dynamics (SD) approach to inform sustainable adaptation strategies. Specifically, we develop and test a new SD model which simulates the dynamics between the farmers' economic system and their rice agriculture operations, and uniquely, integrates the role of fluvial sediment deposition within their dyke compartment. We use the model to explore a range of alternative rice cultivation strategies. Our results suggest that the current dominant strategy (triple-cropping) is only optimal for wealthier groups within society and over the short-term (ca. 10years post-implementation). The model suggests that the policy of opening sluice gates and leaving paddies fallow during high-flood years, in order to encourage natural sediment deposition and the nutrient replenishment it supplies, is both a more equitable and a more sustainable policy. But, even with this approach, diminished supplies of sediment-bound nutrients and the consequent need to compensate with artificial fertilisers will mean that smaller

  8. The emerging role of the FKBP5 gene polymorphisms in vulnerability-stress model of schizophrenia: further evidence from a Serbian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihaljevic, Marina; Zeljic, Katarina; Soldatovic, Ivan; Andric, Sanja; Mirjanic, Tijana; Richards, Alexander; Mantripragada, Kiran; Pekmezovic, Tatjana; Novakovic, Ivana; Maric, Nadja P

    2017-09-01

    Increased reactivity to stress is observed in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders and their healthy siblings in comparison with the general population. Additionally, higher levels of neuroticism, as a proposed psychological measure of stress sensitivity, increase the risk of schizophrenia. HPA axis dysregulation is one of the possible mechanisms related to the vulnerability-stress model of schizophrenia, and recent studies revealed a possible role of the functional genetic variants of FK506-binding protein 51 (FKBP5) gene which modulate activity of HPA axis. The purpose of the present study was to investigate impact of FKBP5 on schizophrenia in Serbian patients and to explore relationship between genetic variants and neuroticism by using the case-sibling-control design. In 158 subjects, we measured psychotic experiences, childhood trauma and neuroticism. Nine single-nucleotide polymorphisms (rs9295158, rs3800373, rs9740080, rs737054, rs6926133, rs9380529, rs9394314, rs2766533 and rs12200498) were genotyped. The genetic influence was modeled using logistic regression, and the relationship between genetic variants and neuroticism was assessed by linear mixed model. Our results revealed genetic main effect of FKBP5 risk alleles (A allele of rs9296158 and T allele of rs3800373) and AGTC "risk" haplotype combination (rs9296158, rs3800373, rs9470080 and rs737054, respectively) on schizophrenia, particularly when childhood trauma was set as a confounding factor. We confirmed strong relationship between neuroticism and psychotic experiences in patients and siblings and further showed relationship between higher levels of neuroticism and FKBP5 risk variants suggesting potential link between biological and psychosocial risk factors. Our data support previous findings that trauma exposure shapes FKBP5 impact on schizophrenia.

  9. Measuring Treasury Bond Portfolio Risk and Portfolio Optimization with a Non-Gaussian Multivariate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yijun

    The research about measuring the risk of a bond portfolio and the portfolio optimization was relatively rare previously, because the risk factors of bond portfolios are not very volatile. However, this condition has changed recently. The 2008 financial crisis brought high volatility to the risk factors and the related bond securities, even if the highly rated U.S. treasury bonds. Moreover, the risk factors of bond portfolios show properties of fat-tailness and asymmetry like risk factors of equity portfolios. Therefore, we need to use advanced techniques to measure and manage risk of bond portfolios. In our paper, we first apply autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model with multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) distribution innovations to predict risk factors of U.S. treasury bonds and statistically demonstrate that MNTS distribution has the ability to capture the properties of risk factors based on the goodness-of-fit tests. Then based on empirical evidence, we find that the VaR and AVaR estimated by assuming normal tempered stable distribution are more realistic and reliable than those estimated by assuming normal distribution, especially for the financial crisis period. Finally, we use the mean-risk portfolio optimization to minimize portfolios' potential risks. The empirical study indicates that the optimized bond portfolios have better risk-adjusted performances than the benchmark portfolios for some periods. Moreover, the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal tempered stable distribution have improved performances in comparison to the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal distribution.

  10. Modelling global distribution, risk and mitigation strategies of floating plastic pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Sebille, Erik; Wilcox, Chris; Sherman, Peter; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Lavender Law, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Pacific and North Atlantic accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardise a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and couple this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons. A large fraction of the uncertainty in these estimates comes from sparse sampling in coastal and Southern Hemisphere regions. We then use this global distribution of small floating plastic debris to map out where in the ocean the risk to marine life (in particular seabirds and plankton growth) is greatest, using a quantitative risk framework. We show that the largest risk occurs not necessarily in regions of high plastic concentration, but rather in regions of extensive foraging with medium-high plastic concentrations such as coastal upwelling regions and the Southern Ocean. Finally, we use the estimates of distribution to investigate where in the ocean plastic can most optimally be removed, assuming hypothetical clean-up booms following the ideas from The Ocean Cleanup project. We show that mitigation of the plastic problem can most aptly be done near coastlines, particularly in Asia, rather than in the centres of the gyres. Based on these results, we propose more focus on the coastal zones when

  11. Development of a Malicious Insider Composite Vulnerability Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    King, William H

    2006-01-01

    .... There are very few vulnerability and impact models capable of providing information owners with the ability to comprehensively assess the effectiveness an organization's malicious insider mitigation strategies...

  12. The Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Environments through Freely Available Datasets: The Case Study of Napoli City (Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ines Alberico

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of tsunami catalogues and of data published on the NOAA web site pointed out that in the Mediterranean basin, from 2000 B.C. to present, about 480 tsunamis occurred, of which at least a third involved the Italian peninsula. Within this framework, a GIS-aided procedure that takes advantage of spatial analysis to apply the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment model of urban environments is presented, with the main purpose of assessing the vulnerability of wide areas at spatial resolution of the census district. The method was applied to the sector of Napoli city enclosed between Posillipo Hill and the Somma-Vesuvio volcano because of the high population rates (apex value of 5000 inh/km2 and potential occurrence of hazardous events such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and mass failures that can trigger tsunamis. The vulnerability status of the urban environment was depicted on a map. About 21% of the possibly inundated area, corresponding with the lowlands along the shoreline, shows a very high tsunami vulnerability. High vulnerability characterizes 26% of inundable zones while medium-low vulnerability typifies a wide area of the Sebeto-Volla plain, ca 800 m away from the shoreline. This map represents a good tool to plan the actions aimed at reducing risk and promoting resilience of the territory.

  13. Modeling the intersections of Food, Energy, and Water in climate-vulnerable Ethiopia with an application to small-scale irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Sankaranarayanan, S.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Siddiqui, S.

    2017-12-01

    Africa is home to some of the most climate vulnerable populations in the world. Energy and agricultural development have diverse impacts on the region's food security and economic well-being from the household to the national level, particularly considering climate variability and change. Our ultimate goal is to understand coupled Food-Energy-Water (FEW) dynamics across spatial scales in order to quantify the sensitivity of critical human outcomes to FEW development strategies in Ethiopia. We are developing bottom-up and top-down multi-scale models, spanning local, sub-national and national scales to capture the FEW linkages across communities and climatic adaptation zones. The focus of this presentation is the sub-national scale multi-player micro-economic (MME) partial-equilibrium model with coupled food and energy sector for Ethiopia. With fixed large-scale economic, demographic, and resource factors from the national scale computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and inferences of behavior parameters from the local scale agent-based model (ABM), the MME studies how shocks such as drought (crop failure) and development of resilience technologies would influence FEW system at a sub-national scale. The MME model is based on aggregating individual optimization problems for relevant players. It includes production, storage, and consumption of food and energy at spatially disaggregated zones, and transportation in between with endogenously modeled infrastructure. The aggregated players for each zone have different roles such as crop producers, storage managers, and distributors, who make decisions according to their own but interdependent objective functions. The food and energy supply chain across zones is therefore captured. Ethiopia is dominated by rain-fed agriculture with only 2% irrigated farmland. Small-scale irrigation has been promoted as a resilience technology that could potentially play a critical role in food security and economic well-being in

  14. Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis, C

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available and variability. It presents a selection of information, translated to communicate climate change processes, key existing and emerging trends, impacts and the possible measures that could be taken to reduce these impacts....

  15. Viewpoint Responding to Risks and Vulnerability Issues Through ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Southern African Journal of Environmental Education. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 27 (2010) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  16. Climate risk and vulnerability: A handbook for Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis, Claire L

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available relevant to a number of studies in the region and has been widely disseminated in Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe (as the core part of customised training courses), as well as in other countries through related events. Since... to continue with climate change. Changes in SST have important implications for the upwelling strength in the Benguela Current system as well as the Agulhas Current, both of which are important drivers of climate for southern Africa. Figure 1.6: Observed...

  17. Women Prisoners' Mental Health: Vulnerabilities, Risks and Resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Margaret E.; Hesselbrock, Michie N.

    2001-01-01

    Studies 49 incarcerated women to examine the complex relationship among women's criminal history, victimization, relational supports, personal strengths and their mental health. A cluster analysis produced four typologies shaping recommendations for assessment and treatment. Findings suggest that women with the greatest mental health needs have…

  18. Predictive risk modelling under different data access scenarios: who is identified as high risk and for how long?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Tracy L; Kaldor, Jill; Sutherland, Kim; Humphries, Jacob; Jorm, Louisa R; Levesque, Jean-Frederic

    2018-01-01

    Objective This observational study critically explored the performance of different predictive risk models simulating three data access scenarios, comparing: (1) sociodemographic and clinical profiles; (2) consistency in high-risk designation across models; and (3) persistence of high-risk status over time. Methods Cross-sectional health survey data (2006–2009) for more than 260 000 Australian adults 45+ years were linked to longitudinal individual hospital, primary care, pharmacy and mortality data. Three risk models predicting acute emergency hospitalisations were explored, simulating conditions where data are accessed through primary care practice management systems, or through hospital-based electronic records, or through a hypothetical ‘full’ model using a wider array of linked data. High-risk patients were identified using different risk score thresholds. Models were reapplied monthly for 24 months to assess persistence in high-risk categorisation. Results The three models displayed similar statistical performance. Three-quarters of patients in the high-risk quintile from the ‘full’ model were also identified using the primary care or hospital-based models, with the remaining patients differing according to age, frailty, multimorbidity, self-rated health, polypharmacy, prior hospitalisations and imminent mortality. The use of higher risk prediction thresholds resulted in lower levels of agreement in high-risk designation across models and greater morbidity and mortality in identified patient populations. Persistence of high-risk status varied across approaches according to updated information on utilisation history, with up to 25% of patients reassessed as lower risk within 1 year. Conclusion/implications Small differences in risk predictors or risk thresholds resulted in comparatively large differences in who was classified as high risk and for how long. Pragmatic predictive risk modelling design decisions based on data availability or projected

  19. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

    2015-04-01

    Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

  20. Maintaining dignity in vulnerability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høy, Bente

    2016-01-01

    to understand the meaning of the narrated text. Results. The meaning of maintaining dignity was constituted in a sense of vulnerability to the self, and elucidated in three major interrelated themes: Being involved as a human being, being involved as the person one is and strives to become, and being involved...

  1. Anaphylaxis vulnerable groups

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ehab

    Age groups vulnerable to serious attacks of anaphylaxis include infants, teenagers, pregnant women, and the elderly. Concomitant diseases, such as severe or uncontrolled asthma, cardiovascular disease, mastocytosis or clonal mast cell disorders and the concurrent use of some medications such as beta adrenergic ...

  2. Dynamics of immune system vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stromberg, Sean P.

    The adaptive immune system can be viewed as a complex system, which adapts, over time, to reflect the history of infections experienced by the organism. Understanding its operation requires viewing it in terms of tradeoffs under constraints and evolutionary history. It typically displays "robust, yet fragile" behavior, meaning common tasks are robust to small changes but novel threats or changes in environment can have dire consequences. In this dissertation we use mechanistic models to study several biological processes: the immune response, the homeostasis of cells in the lymphatic system, and the process that normally prevents autoreactive cells from entering the lymphatic system. Using these models we then study the effects of these processes interacting. We show that the mechanisms that regulate the numbers of cells in the immune system, in conjunction with the immune response, can act to suppress autoreactive cells from proliferating, thus showing quantitatively how pathogenic infections can suppress autoimmune disease. We also show that over long periods of time this same effect can thin the repertoire of cells that defend against novel threats, leading to an age correlated vulnerability. This vulnerability is shown to be a consequence of system dynamics, not due to degradation of immune system components with age. Finally, modeling a specific tolerance mechanism that normally prevents autoimmune disease, in conjunction with models of the immune response and homeostasis we look at the consequences of the immune system mistakenly incorporating pathogenic molecules into its tolerizing mechanisms. The signature of this dynamic matches closely that of the dengue virus system.

  3. Oil spill modeling input to the offshore environmental cost model (OECM) for US-BOEMRE's spill risk and costs evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French McCay, Deborah; Reich, Danielle; Rowe, Jill; Schroeder, Melanie; Graham, Eileen

    2011-01-01

    This paper simulates the consequences of oil spills using a planning model known as the Offshore Environmental Cost Model (OECM). This study aims at creating various predictive models for possible oil spill scenarios in marine waters. A crucial part of this investigation was the SIMAP model. It analyzes the distance and the direction covered by the spill under certain test conditions, generating a regression equation that simulates the impact of the spill. Tests were run in two different regions; the Mid-Atlantic region and the Chukchi Sea. Results showed that the higher wind speeds and higher water temperature of the Mid-Atlantic region had greater impact on wildlife and the water column respectively. However, short-line impact was higher in the Chukchi area due to the multi-directional wind. It was also shown that, because of their higher diffusivity in water, lighter crude oils had more impact than heavier oils. It was suggested that this model could ultimately be applied to other oil spill scenarios happening under similar conditions.

  4. Mangrove vulnerability index using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunus, Mohd Zulkifli Mohd; Ahmad, Fatimah Shafinaz; Ibrahim, Nuremira

    2018-02-01

    Climate change, particularly its associated sea level rise, is major threat to mangrove coastal areas, and it is essential to develop ways to reduce vulnerability through strategic management planning. Environmental vulnerability can be understood as a function of exposure to impacts and the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of ecological systems towards environmental tensors. Mangrove vulnerability ranking using up to 14 parameters found in study area, which is in Pulau Kukup and Sg Pulai, where 1 is low vulnerability and 5 is very high vulnerability. Mangrove Vulnerability Index (MVI) is divided into 3 main categories Physical Mangrove Index (PMI), Biological Mangrove Index (BMI) and Hazard Mangrove Index (HMI).

  5. Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byers, Edward; Gidden, Matthew; Leclère, David; Balkovic, Juraj; Burek, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Greve, Peter; Grey, David; Havlik, Petr; Hillers, Astrid; Johnson, Nils; Kahil, Taher; Krey, Volker; Langan, Simon; Nakicenovic, Nebjosa; Novak, Robert; Obersteiner, Michael; Pachauri, Shonali; Palazzo, Amanda; Parkinson, Simon; Rao, Narasimha D.; Rogelj, Joeri; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, Yoshihide; Willaarts, Barbara; Riahi, Keywan

    2018-05-01

    Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact models. The analysis includes changes in drought intensity and water stress index, cooling demand change and heat event exposure, habitat degradation and crop yield, amongst others. To investigate exposure to multi-sector climate impacts, these are combined with gridded socioeconomic projections of population and those ‘vulnerable to poverty’ from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (income populations vulnerable to poverty, the exposure is an order of magnitude greater (8–32x) in the high poverty and inequality scenarios (SSP3) compared to sustainable socioeconomic development (SSP1). Whilst 85%–95% of global exposure falls to Asian and African regions, they have 91%–98% of the exposed and vulnerable population (depending on SSP/GMT combination), approximately half of which in South Asia. In higher warming scenarios, African regions have growing proportion of the global exposed and vulnerable population, ranging from 7%–17% at 1.5 °C, doubling to 14%–30% at 2 °C and again to 27%–51% at 3 °C. Finally, beyond 2 °C and at higher risk thresholds, the world’s poorest are disproportionately impacted, particularly in cases (SSP3) of high inequality in Africa and southern Asia. Sustainable development that reduces poverty, mitigates emissions and meets targets in the water, energy and land sectors has the potential for order-of-magnitude scale reductions in multi-sector climate risk for the most vulnerable.

  6. Structural Model of psychological risk and protective factors affecting on quality of life in patients with coronary heart disease: A psychocardiology model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Khayyam Nekouei

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Conducted researches show that psychological factors may have a very important role in the etiology, continuity and consequences of coronary heart diseases. This study has drawn the psychological risk and protective factors and their effects in patients with coronary heart diseases (CHD in a structural model. It aims to determine the structural relations between psychological risk and protective factors with quality of life in patients with coronary heart disease. Materials and Methods: The present cross-sectional and correlational studies were conducted using structural equation modeling. The study sample included 398 patients of coronary heart disease in the university referral Hospital, as well as other city health care centers in Isfahan city. They were selected based on random sampling method. Then, in case, they were executed the following questionnaires: Coping with stressful situations (CISS- 21, life orientation (LOT-10, general self-efficacy (GSE-10, depression, anxiety and stress (DASS-21, perceived stress (PSS-14, multidimensional social support (MSPSS-12, alexithymia (TAS-20, spiritual intelligence (SQ-23 and quality of life (WHOQOL-26. Results: The results showed that protective and risk factors could affect the quality of life in patients with CHD with factor loadings of 0.35 and −0.60, respectively. Moreover, based on the values of the framework of the model such as relative chi-square (CMIN/DF = 3.25, the Comparative Fit Index (CFI = 0.93, the Parsimony Comparative Fit Index (PCFI = 0.68, the Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA = 0.07 and details of the model (significance of the relationships it has been confirmed that the psychocardiological structural model of the study is the good fitting model. Conclusion: This study was among the first to research the different psychological risk and protective factors of coronary heart diseases in the form of a structural model. The results of this study have

  7. Measuring vulnerability to disaster displacement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brink, Susan A.; Khazai, Bijan; Power, Christopher; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2015-04-01

    aggregate these ideas into a framework of disaster displacement vulnerability that distinguishes between three main aspects of disaster displacement. Disaster displacement can be considered in terms of the number of displaced people and the length of that displacement. However, the literature emphasizes that the severity of disaster displacement can not be measured completely in quantitative terms. Thus, we include a measure representing people who are trapped and unable to leave their homes due to mobility, resources or for other reasons. Finally the third main aspect considers the difficulties that are associated with displacement and reflects the difference between the experiences of those who are displaced into safe and supportive environments as compared to those whose only alternate shelter is dangerous and inadequate for their needs. Finally, we apply the framework to demonstrate a methodology to estimate vulnerability to disaster displacement. Using data from the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Social and Economic Vulnerability sub-National Database, we generate an index to measure the vulnerability of Japanese prefectures to the dimensions of displacement included in the framework. References Yonitani, M. (2014). Global Estimates 2014: People displaced by disasters. http://www.internal-displacement.org/publications/2014/global-estimates-2014-people-displaced-by-disasters/

  8. Ketamine facilitates extinction of avoidance behavior and enhances synaptic plasticity in a rat model of anxiety vulnerability: Implications for the pathophysiology and treatment of anxiety disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortress, Ashley M; Smith, Ian M; Pang, Kevin C H

    2018-05-08

    Anxiety disorders and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) share a common feature of pathological avoidance behavior. The Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rat has been used as a model of anxiety vulnerability, expressing a behaviorally inhibited temperament, acquiring avoidance behavior more rapidly and displaying extinction-resistant avoidance compared to Sprague Dawley (SD) rats. Subanesthetic levels of ketamine have gained attention as a rapid antidepressant in treatment-resistant depression. While traditional antidepressants are commonly used to treat anxiety disorders and PTSD, the therapeutic utility of ketamine for these disorders is much less understood. The hippocampus is critical for the actions of antidepressants, is a structure of implicated in anxiety disorders and PTSD, and is necessary for extinction of avoidance in SD rats. WKY rats have impaired hippocampal long-term potentiation (LTP), suggesting that persistent avoidance in WKY rats may be due to deficient hippocampal synaptic plasticity. In the present study, we hypothesized that ketamine would facilitate extinction of avoidance learning in WKY rats, and do so by enhancing hippocampal synaptic plasticity. As predicted, ketamine facilitated extinction of avoidance behavior in a subset of WKY rats (responders), with effects lasting at least three weeks. Additionally, LTP in these rats was enhanced by ketamine. Ketamine was not effective in facilitating avoidance extinction or in modifying LTP in WKY non-responders. The results suggest that subanesthetic levels of ketamine may be useful for treating anxiety disorders by reducing avoidance behaviors when combined with extinction conditions. Moreover, ketamine may have its long-lasting behavioral effects through enhancing hippocampal synaptic plasticity. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Underground structures increasing the intrinsic vulnerability of urban groundwater: Sensitivity analysis and development of an empirical law based on a groundwater age modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attard, Guillaume; Rossier, Yvan; Eisenlohr, Laurent

    2017-09-01

    In a previous paper published in Journal of Hydrology, it was shown that underground structures are responsible for a mixing process between shallow and deep groundwater that can favour the spreading of urban contamination. In this paper, the impact of underground structures on the intrinsic vulnerability of urban aquifers was investigated. A sensitivity analysis was performed using a 2D deterministic modelling approach based on the reservoir theory generalized to hydrodispersive systems to better understand this mixing phenomenon and the mixing affected zone (MAZ) caused by underground structures. It was shown that the maximal extent of the MAZ caused by an underground structure is reached approximately 20 years after construction. Consequently, underground structures represent a long-term threat for deep aquifer reservoirs. Regarding the construction process, draining operations have a major impact and favour large-scale mixing between shallow and deep groundwater. Consequently, dewatering should be reduced and enclosed as much as possible. The role played by underground structures' dimensions was assessed. The obstruction of the first aquifer layer caused by construction has the greatest influence on the MAZ. The cumulative impact of several underground structures was assessed. It was shown that the total MAZ area increases linearly with underground structures' density. The role played by materials' properties and hydraulic gradient were assessed. Hydraulic conductivity, anisotropy and porosity have the strongest influence on the development of MAZ. Finally, an empirical law was derived to estimate the MAZ caused by an underground structure in a bi-layered aquifer under unconfined conditions. This empirical law, based on the results of the sensitivity analysis developed in this paper, allows for the estimation of MAZ dimensions under known material properties and underground structure dimensions. This empirical law can help urban planners assess the area of

  10. Analysis of computational vulnerabilities in digital repositories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valdete Fernandes Belarmino

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Demonstrates the results of research that aimed to analyze the computational vulnerabilities of digital directories in public Universities. Argues the relevance of information in contemporary societies like an invaluable resource, emphasizing scientific information as an essential element to constitute scientific progress. Characterizes the emergence of Digital Repositories and highlights its use in academic environment to preserve, promote, disseminate and encourage the scientific production. Describes the main software for the construction of digital repositories. Method. The investigation identified and analyzed the vulnerabilities that are exposed the digital repositories using Penetration Testing running. Discriminating the levels of risk and the types of vulnerabilities. Results. From a sample of 30 repositories, we could examine 20, identified that: 5% of the repositories have critical vulnerabilities, 85% high, 25% medium and 100% lowers. Conclusions. Which demonstrates the necessity to adapt actions for these environments that promote informational security to minimizing the incidence of external and / or internal systems attacks.Abstract Grey Text – use bold for subheadings when needed.

  11. Not the usual suspects: addressing layers of vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna, Florencia; Vanderpoel, Sheryl

    2013-07-01

    This paper challenges the traditional account of vulnerability in healthcare which conceptualizes vulnerability as a list of identifiable subpopulations. This list of 'usual suspects', focusing on groups from lower resource settings, is a narrow account of vulnerability. In this article we argue that in certain circumstances middle-class individuals can be also rendered vulnerable. We propose a relational and layered account of vulnerability and explore this concept using the case study of cord blood (CB) banking. In the first section, two different approaches to 'vulnerability' are contrasted: categorical versus layered. In the second section, we describe CB banking and present a case study of CB banking in Argentina. We examine the types of pressure that middle-class pregnant women feel when considering CB collection and storage. In section three, we use the CB banking case study to critique the categorical approach to vulnerability: this model is unable to account for the ways in which these women are vulnerable. A layered account of vulnerability identifies several ways in which middle-class women are vulnerable. Finally, by utilizing the layered approach, this paper suggests how public health policies could be designed to overcome vulnerabilities. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

    2017-09-01

    Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

  13. The space of vulnerability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Sgarbi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Archi-tecture has lost the reference to its prop “Archi” to develop mostly its “Tecture”: a deceitful form of nihilism, which has given full credit to a hurricane of instruments for which we know no purpose. Any distinction between city and architecture is purely contingent. Contingency is relevant but only in so far as it makes one lose any sense of scale. Many of our cities do not work because our style of life eradicates the sense of hospitality. The city becomes the place where we un-learn how to live together. Hospitality is vulnerability – the construction of vulnerability is the true beauty, the only deterrent against stupidity. Learn to live with the others, to approximate the alterity and its unpredictability. The basic tools of conviviality are the common goods of inter-disciplinarity. Learn to cultivate and educate yourself to phenomenal incompleteness.

  14. Fuzzy vulnerability matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, Jorge H.; Rivera, S.S.

    2000-01-01

    The so-called vulnerability matrix is used in the evaluation part of the probabilistic safety assessment for a nuclear power plant, during the containment event trees calculations. This matrix is established from what is knows as Numerical Categories for Engineering Judgement. This matrix is usually established with numerical values obtained with traditional arithmetic using the set theory. The representation of this matrix with fuzzy numbers is much more adequate, due to the fact that the Numerical Categories for Engineering Judgement are better represented with linguistic variables, such as 'highly probable', 'probable', 'impossible', etc. In the present paper a methodology to obtain a Fuzzy Vulnerability Matrix is presented, starting from the recommendations on the Numerical Categories for Engineering Judgement. (author)

  15. VT - Vermont Social Vulnerability Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — Social vulnerability refers to the resilience of communities when responding to or recovering from threats to public health. The Vermont Social Vulnerability Index...

  16. Tripartite Governance: Enabling Successful Implementations with Vulnerable Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Margaret Ann

    2016-01-01

    Vulnerable populations are often at a distinct disadvantage when it comes to the implementation of health information systems in an equitable, appropriate, and timely manner. The disadvantages experienced by vulnerable populations are innumerable and include lack of representation, lack of appropriate levels of funding, lack of resources and capacity, and lack of representation. Increasingly, models of representation for complex implementations involve a tripartite project governance model. This tripartite partnership distributes accountability across all partners, and ensures that vulnerable populations have an equitable contribution to the direction of implementation according to their needs. This article shares lessons learned and best practices from complex tripartite partnerships supporting implementations with vulnerable populations in Canada.

  17. A knowledge integration approach to flood vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzorana, Bruno; Fuchs, Sven

    2014-05-01

    Understanding, qualifying and quantifying vulnerability is an essential need for implementing effective and efficient flood risk mitigation strategies; in particular if possible synergies between different mitigation alternatives, such as active and passive measures, should be achieved. In order to combine different risk management options it is necessary to take an interdisciplinary approach to vulnerability reduction, and as a result the affected society may be willing to accept a certain degree of self-responsibility. However, due to differing mono-disciplinary approaches and regional foci undertaken until now, different aspects of vulnerability to natural hazards in general and to floods in particular remain uncovered and as a result the developed management options remain sub-optimal. Taking an even more fundamental viewpoint, the empirical vulnerability functions used in risk assessment specifically fail to capture physical principles of the damage-generating mechanisms to the build environment. The aim of this paper is to partially close this gap by discussing a balanced knowledge integration approach which can be used to resolve the multidisciplinary disorder in flood vulnerability research. Modelling techniques such as mathematical-physical modelling of the flood hazard impact to and response from the building envelope affected, and formative scenario analyses of possible consequences in terms of damage and loss are used in synergy to provide an enhanced understanding of vulnerability and to render the derived knowledge into interdisciplinary mitigation strategies. The outlined formal procedure allows for a convincing knowledge alignment of quantified, but partial, information about vulnerability as a result of the application of physical and engineering notions and valuable, but often underspecified, qualitative argumentation strings emerging from the adopted socio-economic viewpoint.

  18. Is model of care associated with infant birth outcomes among vulnerable women? A scoping review of midwifery-led versus physician-led care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daphne N. McRae

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This scoping review investigates if, over the last 25 years in high resource countries, midwives’ patients of low socioeconomic position (SEP were at more or less risk of adverse infant birth outcomes compared to physicians’ patients. Reviewers identified 917 records in a search of 12 databases, grey literature, and citation lists. Thirty-one full documents were assessed and nine studies met inclusion criteria. Eight studies were assessed as moderate in quality; one study was given a weak rating. Of the moderate quality studies, the majority found no statistical difference in outcomes according to model of care for preterm birth, low or very low birth weight, or NICU admission. No study reported a statistically significant difference for small for gestational age birth (2 studies, or mean or low Apgar score (4 studies. However, one study found a reduced risk of preterm birth (AOR=0.70, p<0.01, and heavier mean infant birth weight (3325 g vs. 3282 g, p<0.01 for midwifery patients. Another study reported lower risk of low (RR=0.59, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.73 and very low birthweight (RR=0.44, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.85 for midwifery care. And, a third study reported a decrease in stays (1–3 days in NICU (Adjusted Risk Difference=−1.8, 95% CI: −3.9, 0.2 for midwifery patients, though no overall difference in NICU admission of any duration. Other studies reported significant differences favoring midwifery care for mean birth weight (3598 g vs. 3407.3 g, p<0.05; 3233 g vs. 3089 g, p<0.05; 2 studies and very low birth weight (OR=0.35, 95% CI:0.1, 0.9, for sub-groups within the larger study populations. This scoping review documented heterogeneity in study designs and analytical methods, inconsistent findings, moderate methodological quality, and lack of currency. There is a need for new studies to definitively establish if and how a midwifery-led model of care influences birth outcomes for women of low SEP. Keywords: Midwifery, Socioeconomic

  19. Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Kaplan, Isaac C

    2016-01-01

    Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill-Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod-Limacina helicina, pink shrimp-Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab-Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake-Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species' vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.

  20. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  1. Influence of neuromuscular noise and walking speed on fall risk and dynamic stability in a 3D dynamic walking model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roos, Paulien E; Dingwell, Jonathan B

    2013-06-21

    Older adults and those with increased fall risk tend to walk slower. They may do this voluntarily to reduce their fall risk. However, both slower and faster walking speeds can predict increased risk of different types of falls. The mechanisms that contribute to fall risk across speeds are not well known. Faster walking requires greater forward propulsion, generated by larger muscle forces. However, greater muscle activation induces increased signal-dependent neuromuscular noise. These speed-related increases in neuromuscular noise may contribute to the increased fall risk observed at faster walking speeds. Using a 3D dynamic walking model, we systematically varied walking speed without and with physiologically-appropriate neuromuscular noise. We quantified how actual fall risk changed with gait speed, how neuromuscular noise affected speed-related changes in fall risk, and how well orbital and local dynamic stability measures predicted changes in fall risk across speeds. When we included physiologically-appropriate noise to the 'push-off' force in our model, fall risk increased with increasing walking speed. Changes in kinematic variability, orbital, and local dynamic stability did not predict these speed-related changes in fall risk. Thus, the increased neuromuscular variability that results from increased signal-dependent noise that is necessitated by the greater muscular force requirements of faster walking may contribute to the increased fall risk observed at faster walking speeds. The lower fall risk observed at slower speeds supports experimental evidence that slowing down can be an effective strategy to reduce fall risk. This may help explain the slower walking speeds observed in older adults and others. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Narcissistic grandiosity and narcissistic vulnerability in psychotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincus, Aaron L; Cain, Nicole M; Wright, Aidan G C

    2014-10-01

    This article briefly summarizes the empirical and clinical literature underlying a contemporary clinical model of pathological narcissism. Unlike the DSM Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD), this clinical model identifies and differentiates between two phenotypic themes of dysfunction-narcissistic grandiosity and narcissistic vulnerability-that can be expressed both overtly and covertly in patients' ways of thinking, feeling, behaving, and participating in treatment. Clinical recognition that narcissistic patients can and often do present for psychotherapy in vulnerable states of depression, anxiety, shame, and even suicidality increases the likelihood of accurate diagnosis and effective treatment planning. This article provides case examples derived from psychotherapies with narcissistic patients to demonstrate how narcissistic grandiosity and narcissistic vulnerability concurrently present in patients who seek treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Vulnerable to HIV / AIDS. Migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, I

    1998-01-01

    This special report discusses the impact of globalization, patterns of migration in Southeast Asia, gender issues in migration, the links between migration and HIV/AIDS, and spatial mobility and social networks. Migrants are particularly marginalized in countries that blame migrants for transmission of infectious and communicable diseases and other social ills. Effective control of HIV/AIDS among migrant and native populations requires a multisectoral approach. Programs should critically review the privatization of health care services and challenge economic models that polarize the rich and the poor, men and women, North and South, and migrant and native. Programs should recognize the equality between locals and migrants in receipt of health services. Countermeasures should have input from migrants in order to reduce the conditions that increase vulnerability to HIV/AIDS. Gender-oriented research is needed to understand women's role in migration. Rapid assessment has obscured the human dimension of migrants' vulnerability to HIV. Condom promotion is not enough. Migration is a major consequence of globalization, which holds the promise, real or imagined, of prosperity for all. Mass migration can be fueled by explosive regional developments. In Southeast Asia, migration has been part of the process of economic development. The potential to emigrate increases with greater per capita income. "Tiger" economies have been labor importers. Safe sex is not practiced in many Asian countries because risk is not taken seriously. Migrants tend to be used as economic tools, without consideration of social adjustment and sex behavior among singles.

  4. HEPA Filter Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GUSTAVSON, R.D.

    2000-01-01

    This assessment of High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filter vulnerability was requested by the USDOE Office of River Protection (ORP) to satisfy a DOE-HQ directive to evaluate the effect of filter degradation on the facility authorization basis assumptions. Within the scope of this assessment are ventilation system HEPA filters that are classified as Safety-Class (SC) or Safety-Significant (SS) components that perform an accident mitigation function. The objective of the assessment is to verify whether HEPA filters that perform a safety function during an accident are likely to perform as intended to limit release of hazardous or radioactive materials, considering factors that could degrade the filters. Filter degradation factors considered include aging, wetting of filters, exposure to high temperature, exposure to corrosive or reactive chemicals, and exposure to radiation. Screening and evaluation criteria were developed by a site-wide group of HVAC engineers and HEPA filter experts from published empirical data. For River Protection Project (RPP) filters, the only degradation factor that exceeded the screening threshold was for filter aging. Subsequent evaluation of the effect of filter aging on the filter strength was conducted, and the results were compared with required performance to meet the conditions assumed in the RPP Authorization Basis (AB). It was found that the reduction in filter strength due to aging does not affect the filter performance requirements as specified in the AB. A portion of the HEPA filter vulnerability assessment is being conducted by the ORP and is not part of the scope of this study. The ORP is conducting an assessment of the existing policies and programs relating to maintenance, testing, and change-out of HEPA filters used for SC/SS service. This document presents the results of a HEPA filter vulnerability assessment conducted for the River protection project as requested by the DOE Office of River Protection

  5. [Adolescent vulnerabilities and radicalisation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenjalley, Adrien; Radjack, Rahmeth; Ludot, Maude; Touhami, Fatima; Moro, Marie Rose

    2017-10-01

    Radicalisation resonates with the psychological vulnerabilities of adolescents. The ups and downs encountered as they attempt to construct their identity and their need to dominate favour the destructive nature of young people lacking a sense of filiation and belonging. An adolescent's engagement corresponds to a search for limits, with an adherence to religious values and to a group to establish self-esteem. Subjectification, authorising the adolescent to separate themselves from their parents and their values through a period of crisis must be supported. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  6. Classification of vulnerability information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibson, W.G.

    1984-01-01

    The current upgrading of security measures at sensitive Department of Energy (DOE) facilities reflects the continuing concern over possible terrorist and other criminal acts against these facilities. Security reviews are periodically conducted at DOE facilities, deficiencies are identified, and corrective actions are recommended. While security upgrades are initiated as soon as possible, the process of securing funding and the construction or other activities necessary to complete upgrades can cause delays in correcting security vulnerabilities. Details of security weaknesses at important DOE facilities are classified in order to deny valuable information to terrorists and other malefactors

  7. Modeling ecodevelopmental context of sexually transmitted disease/HIV risk and protective behaviors among African-American adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Y

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Ya-Huei Li,1 Osaro Mgbere,1,2 Susan Abughosh,1 Hua Chen,1 Paula Cuccaro,3 Ekere James Essien1,3 1Department of Pharmaceutical Health Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Houston, Texas Medical Center, Houston, TX, USA; 2Houston Health Department, Houston, TX, USA; 3Department of Health Promotion and Behavioral Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Texas Health Science Center, Houston, TX, USA Abstract: Risk and protective processes are integrated developmental processes that directly or indirectly affect behavioral outcomes. A better understanding of these processes is needed, in order to gauge their contribution to sexual risk behaviors. This retrospective cross-sectional study modeled the ecodevelopmental chain of relationships to examine the social contexts of African-American (AA adolescents associated with sexually transmitted disease (STD- and HIV-risk behaviors. We used data from 1,619 AA adolescents with an average age of 16±1.8 years obtained from the first wave of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health for this study. Confirmatory factor analysis followed by structural equation modeling was conducted to identify the latent constructs that reflect the social–interactional components of the ecodevelopmental theory. Among contextual factors, findings indicated that a feeling of love from father, school, religion, and parent attitudes toward adolescent sexual behavior were all factors that played significant roles in the sexual behavior of AA adolescents. AA adolescents who reported feeling love from their father, feeling a strong negative attitude from their parents toward having sex at a very young age, and having a strong bond with school personnel were associated with better health statuses. The level of parents’ involvement in their children’s lives was reflected in the adolescents’ feeling of love from parents and moderated by their socioeconomic status. Being male, attaining

  8. A socioeconomic profile of vulnerable land to desertification in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvati, Luca

    2014-01-01

    Climate changes, soil vulnerability, loss in biodiversity, and growing human pressure are threatening Mediterranean-type ecosystems which are increasingly considered as a desertification hotspot. In this region, land vulnerability to desertification strongly depends on the interplay between natural and anthropogenic factors. The present study proposes a multivariate exploratory analysis of the relationship between the spatial distribution of land vulnerability to desertification and the socioeconomic contexts found in three geographical divisions of Italy (north, center and south) based on statistical indicators. A total of 111 indicators describing different themes (demography, human settlements, labor market and human capital, rural development, income and wealth) were used to discriminate vulnerable from non-vulnerable areas. The resulting socioeconomic profile of vulnerable areas in northern and southern Italy diverged significantly, the importance of demographic and economic indicators being higher in southern Italy than in northern Italy. On the contrary, human settlement indicators were found more important to discriminate vulnerable and non-vulnerable areas in northern Italy, suggesting a role for peri-urbanization in shaping the future vulnerable areas. An in-depth knowledge of the socioeconomic characteristics of vulnerable land may contribute to scenarios' modeling and the development of more effective policies to combat desertification. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Vulnerability of birds to climate change in California's Sierra Nevada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodney B. Siegel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In a rapidly changing climate, effective bird conservation requires not only reliable information about the current vulnerability of species of conservation concern, but also credible projections of their future vulnerability. Such projections may enable managers to preempt or reduce emerging climate-related threats through appropriate habitat management. We used NatureServe's Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI to predict vulnerability to climate change of 168 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, USA. The CCVI assesses species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change within a defined geographic area, through the integration of (a species' range maps, (b information about species' natural history traits and ecological relationships, (c historic and current climate data, and (d spatially explicit climate change projections. We conducted the assessment under two different downscaled climate models with divergent projections about future precipitation through the middle of the 21st century. Assessments differed relatively little under the two climate models. Of five CCVI vulnerability ranking categories, only one species, White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura, received the most vulnerable rank, Extremely Vulnerable. No species received the second-highest vulnerability ranking, Highly Vulnerable. Sixteen species scored as Moderately Vulnerable using one or both climate models: Common Merganser (Mergus merganser, Osprey (Pandion haliaetus, Bald Eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus, Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis, Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus, Prairie Falcon (Falco mexicanus, Spotted Sandpiper (Actitis macularius, Great Gray Owl (Strix nebulosa, Black Swift (Cypseloides niger, Clark's Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana, American Dipper (Cinclus mexicanus, Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus, American Pipit (Anthus rubescens, Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch (Leucosticte tephrocotis, Pine Grosbeak

  10. Urban Vulnerability and Climate Change in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urbanisation and climate change are among the major challenges for sustainable development in Africa. The overall aim of this book is to present innovative approaches to vulnerability analysis and for enhancing the resilience of African cities against climate change-induced risks. Locally adapted...... explores the role of governance in successfully coping with climate-induced risks in urban areas. The book is unique in that it combines: a top-down perspective of climate change modeling with a bottom-up perspective of vulnerability assessment; quantitative approaches from engineering sciences...

  11. Women’s opinion on the justification of physical spousal violence: A quantitative approach to model the most vulnerable households in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Biswas, Raaj Kishore; Rahman, Nusma; Kabir, Enamul; Raihan, Farabi

    2017-01-01

    Bangladesh is a culturally conservative nation with limited freedom for women. A number of studies have evaluated intimate partner violence (IPV) and spousal physical violence in Bangladesh; however, the views of women have been rarely discussed in a quantitative manner. Three nationwide surveys in Bangladesh (2007, 2011, and 2014) were analyzed in this study to characterize the most vulnerable households, where women themselves accepted spousal physical violence as a general norm. 31.3%, 31....

  12. Fluctuation between grandiose and vulnerable narcissism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gore, Whitney L; Widiger, Thomas A

    2016-10-01

    Current literature on narcissistic personality disorder has emphasized a distinction between grandiose and vulnerable narcissism. Some researchers have further suggested that narcissistic persons fluctuate between grandiose and vulnerable narcissism. However, this perception has been confined largely to clinical experience with no systematic research testing the hypothesis. Clinicians and clinical psychology professors in the current study identified 143 persons who fit a description of either a grandiose or a vulnerable narcissist and indicated the extent to which these persons ever demonstrated traits of the complementary variant. The results supported the fluctuation hypothesis, particularly for episodes of vulnerable narcissism in persons identified as a grandiose narcissist. Correlations of the grandiose and vulnerable narcissism traits with a brief five-factor model measure corroborated past trait descriptions of the 2 respective variants of narcissism. The results of the current study are compared with existing cross-sectional and longitudinal research, and suggestions for future research are provided. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Vulnerability of multiple-barrier systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lind, N.C.

    1996-01-01

    'Vulnerability' is defined as the ratio of the probability of failure of a damaged system to the probability of failure of the undamaged system. This definition applies to all engineered systems and can be specialized to particular system types. Some disastrous failures (e.g., Chernobyl) have shown that systems can be highly vulnerable. open-quotes Defense in depthclose quotes is a powerful design principle, reducing vulnerability when the consequences of failure can be catastrophic. In the nuclear industry, defense in depth is widely used in radiation protection, reactor control, and shutdown systems. A multiple-barrier system is a simple example of a system that has defense in depth. The idea is that the system is not vulnerable. It cannot fail if one barrier fails because there is another to take its place. This idea is untenable in waste management, but a quantified vulnerability of a system can help owners, designers, and regulators decide how much defense in depth is desirable or enough. Many multiple-barrier systems can be modeled as systems of components physically in a series, each individually able to prevent failure. Components typically have bimodal distributions of the service time to failure, as illustrated by an example of application to a hypothetical nuclear fuel waste repository

  14. Defense Against National Vulnerabilities in Public Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-28

    ingestion of subscription based precision data sources ( Business Intelligence Databases, Monster, others).  Flexible data architecture that allows for...components of program execution from technical design to business and program management, to ensure timely and complete execution of contract...type. Satellite Imagery Adapters Planet and Carto Adapter Juno Services Vulnerability Assessment Framework Computer Model Facebook Graph API

  15. Perceived Vulnerability to Disease Predicts Environmental Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prokop, Pavol; Kubiatko, Milan

    2014-01-01

    Investigating predictors of environmental attitudes may bring valuable benefits in terms of improving public awareness about biodiversity degradation and increased pro-environmental behaviour. Here we used an evolutionary approach to study environmental attitudes based on disease-threat model. We hypothesized that people vulnerable to diseases may…

  16. Mental vulnerability--a risk factor for ischemic heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eplov, Lene Falgaard; Jørgensen, Torben; Birket-Smith, Morten

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to examine whether mental vulnerability is a risk factor for the development of ischemic heart disease (IHD) after adjustment for well-established risk factors. METHODS: In three prospective cohort studies in Copenhagen County, Denmark, we recorded the level...... of mental vulnerability and possible risk factors to IHD at baseline. For follow-up, the sample was linked to relevant registries to identify all cases of fatal and nonfatal IHD. The relationship between mental vulnerability and IHD was examined using both Kaplan-Meir and Cox proportional hazard models...... adjusting for possible confounding factors. RESULTS: Mental vulnerability was significantly associated with the risk for IHD (medium mental vulnerability: hazard ratio 1.41, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.91; and high mental vulnerability: hazard ratio 2.05; 95% confidence interval 1.46-2.88), after...

  17. Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

    2015-03-01

    The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

  18. Mental vulnerability and survival after cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nakaya, Naoki; Bidstrup, Pernille E; Eplov, Lene F

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It has been hypothesized that personality traits affect survival after cancer, but studies have produced inconsistent results. This study examined the association between mental vulnerability and survival after cancer in Denmark in a prospective cohort study. METHODS: Between 1976...... and 2001, 12733 residents of Copenhagen completed a questionnaire eliciting information on a 12-item mental vulnerability scale, as well as various personal data. Follow-up in the Danish Cancer Registry until 2003 identified 884 incident cases of primary cancer, and follow-up for death from the date...... of cancer diagnosis until 2003 identified 382 deaths. Mental vulnerability scores were divided into 4 approximately equal-sized groups. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Multivariate HR for all-cause mortality for persons...

  19. A new approach to analyzing vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Callaghan, P.B.; Carlson, R.L.; Riedeman, G.W.

    1986-01-01

    The Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) has recently completed construction of the Fuel Cycle Plant (FCP) at Richland, Washington. At start-up the facility will fabricate driver fuel for the Fast Flux Test Facility in the Secure Automated Fabrication line. After construction completion, but before facility certification, the Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Operation Office requested that a vulnerability analysis be performed which assumed multiple insiders as a threat to the security system. A unique method of analyzing facility vulnerabilities was developed at the Security Applications Center (SAC), which is managed by WHC for DOE. The method that was developed verifies a previous vulnerability assessment, as well as introducing a modeling technique which analyzes security alarms in relation to delaying factors and possible insider activities. With this information it is possible to assess the relative strength or weakness of various possible routes to and from a target within a facility,

  20. Coping with subjectivity in vulnerability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renis, T.A.; Cardwell, R.G.

    1988-01-01

    Vulnerability assessment models are widely used to systematically evaluate the performance of complex safeguards systems against a variety of threats. These models require varying levels of detail and input data about the physical design of a facility and its safeguards operations and procedures. However, to evaluate safeguards effectiveness and give a performance rating, these models require additional performance data reflecting probabilities of detection, assessment, interruption, and neutralization, as well as the associated times for various adversary scenarios. These data may be attained from equipment design specifications, laboratory testing, expert judgment, or component testing. Regardless of how these data are obtained, they are inherently subjective. This paper addresses the uses of various vulnerability assessment models and the nature of subjectivity in those models. The paper also describes methods for coping with subjective data

  1. A synthesized biophysical and social vulnerability assessment for Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yung-Jaan

    2017-11-01

    Taiwan, located in the Western Pacific, is a country that is one of the most vulnerable to disasters that are associated with the changing climate; it is located within the Ring of Fire, which is the most geologically active region in the world. The environmental and geological conditions in Taiwan are sensitive and vulnerable to such disasters. Owing to increasing urbanization in Taiwan, floods and climate-related disasters have taken an increasing toll on human lives. As global warming accelerates the rising of sea levels and increasing of the frequency of extreme weather events, disasters will continue to affect socioeconomic development and human conditions. Under such circumstances, researchers and policymakers alike must recognize the importance of providing useful knowledge concerning vulnerability, disaster recovery and resilience. Strategies for reducing vulnerability and climate-related disaster risks and for increasing resilience involve preparedness, mitigation and adaptation. In the last two decades, extreme climate events have caused severe flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and other disasters and have had negative effects of many sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and health. Since climate change is expected to have a continued impact on socio-economic development, this work develops a vulnerability assessment framework that integrates both biophysical and social vulnerability and supports synthesized vulnerability analyses to identify vulnerable areas in Taiwan. Owing to its geographical, geological and climatic features, Taiwan is susceptible to earthquakes, typhoons, droughts and various induced disasters. Therefore, Taiwan has the urgent task of establishing a framework for assessing vulnerability as a planning and policy tool that can be used to identify not only the regions that require special attention but also hotspots in which efforts should be made to reduce vulnerability and the risk of climate-related disaster. To

  2. Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment of the Tarkwa Mining Area ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In view of the extensive mining in the Tarkwa area, quality of groundwater has become an important issue. This study estimates aquifer vulnerability by applying the SINTACS model which uses seven environmental parameters to evaluate aquifer vulnerability and geographical information system (GIS) in the Tarkwa mining ...

  3. Open Source Vulnerability Database Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jake Kouns

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This article introduces the Open Source Vulnerability Database (OSVDB project which manages a global collection of computer security vulnerabilities, available for free use by the information security community. This collection contains information on known security weaknesses in operating systems, software products, protocols, hardware devices, and other infrastructure elements of information technology. The OSVDB project is intended to be the centralized global open source vulnerability collection on the Internet.

  4. Attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and mitigation and adaptation behavior in Yunlin County, Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yung-Jaan; Tung, Chuan-Ming; Lin, Shih-Chien

    2018-02-08

    Issues that are associated with climate change have global importance. Most related studies take a national or regional perspective on the impact of climate change. Taiwan is constrained by its geographical conditions, which increase its vulnerability to climate change, especially in its western coastal areas. The county that is most affected by climate change is Yunlin. In 2013-2014, projects that were sponsored by Taiwan's government analyzed the relationship among synthesized vulnerability, ecological footprint (EF) and adaptation to climate change and proposed 15 categories of synthesized vulnerability and EF values. This study further examines the relationship between vulnerability and EF values and examines how residents of four townships-Linnei, Sihu, Mailiao, and Huwei-cope with the effects of climate change. This study investigates whether the residents of the four townships vary in their attitudes to climate change, their perceptions of disaster risk, and their behavioral intentions with respect to coping with climate change. The structural equation model (SEM) is used to examine the relationships among attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and the behavioral intentions of residents in townships with various vulnerabilities to climate change. The results that are obtained using the SEM reveal that climate change mitigation/adaptation behavior is affected by attitudes to climate change and perceptions of disaster risk. However, the effects of attitudes and perceptions on mitigation and adaptation that are mediated by place attachment are not statistically significant.

  5. The Integrated Medical Model - Optimizing In-flight Space Medical Systems to Reduce Crew Health Risk and Mission Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Walton, Marlei; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; Myers, Jerry; Butler, Doug; Lyengar, Sriram; Fitts, Mary; Johnson-Throop, Kathy

    2009-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool used by medical system planners and designers as they prepare for exploration planning activities of the Constellation program (CxP). IMM provides an evidence-based approach to help optimize the allocation of in-flight medical resources for a specified level of risk within spacecraft operational constraints. Eighty medical conditions and associated resources are represented in IMM. Nine conditions are due to Space Adaptation Syndrome. The IMM helps answer fundamental medical mission planning questions such as What medical conditions can be expected? What type and quantity of medical resources are most likely to be used?", and "What is the probability of crew death or evacuation due to medical events?" For a specified mission and crew profile, the IMM effectively characterizes the sequence of events that could potentially occur should a medical condition happen. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew attributes, medical conditions and incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential clinical and crew health end states are established to generate end state probabilities. A Monte Carlo computational method is used to determine the probable outcomes and requires up to 25,000 mission trials to reach convergence. For each mission trial, the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat prevalent medical conditions are tracked and decremented. The uncertainty of patient response to treatment is bounded via a best-case, worst-case, untreated case algorithm. A Crew Health Index (CHI) metric, developed to account for functional impairment due to a medical condition, provides a quantified measure of risk and enables risk comparisons across mission scenarios. The use of historical in-flight medical data, terrestrial surrogate data as appropriate, and space medicine subject matter expertise has enabled the development of a probabilistic, stochastic decision support tool capable of

  6. Network Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alward, Randy G; Carley, Kathleen M; Madsen, Fredrik; Taylor, Vincent K; Vandenberghe, Grant

    2006-01-01

    .... The break out group discussed vulnerability presentation needs common across various application domains, particularly in support of network discovery and network analysis tasks in those domains...

  7. Assessing internal biophysical vulnerability to landslide hazards - a nested catchment approach: Xiangxi Watershed / Three Gorges Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiegand, Matthias; Seeber, Christoph; Hartmann, Heike; Xiang, Wei; King, Lorenz

    2010-05-01

    The Three Gorges dam construction was completed in 2006. Besides the international media, also the responsible authorities and various scholarly communities pay close attention to potential and actual environmental impacts related to the impoundment and development activities. The geo-environment within the Three Gorges region is highly conducive to landslides. Consequently, a scientific monitoring and risk mitigation system was established and is still under development. Risk analysis with regard to gravity driven mass movements is highly complex and strongly site specific - several aspects hamper a universal methodology applicable for landslide risk and site assessment. The interdisciplinary Sino-German Yangtze-Project Research co-operation aims, among others, to support the sustainable cultivation of the newly developed ecosystems within the Yangtze catchments. Land use change and increasing population growth are causing severe pressure on the scarce land resources. Landslides are acknowledged as important threat, hence vulnerability of certain landscape components have to be identified, quantified and monitored. A nested quantitative approach for vulnerability analysis is developed. The applied risk and vulnerability model understands risk as the product of hazard and vulnerability. Whereas vulnerability is characterized by: mass movement intensity and susceptibility of the respective element at risk. The watershed of Xiangxi river serves as study area. In general, catchment approaches intent and proved to be a functional geographical unit for successful integrated resources management. Several limitations with regard to data accessibility, availability and accuracy have to be considered due to restrictions of feasible scales. Comprehensive large-scale site investigations are confined to training areas for model calibration and validation. Remote sensing potentials are utilised for land use/ land cover change analysis and localization of selected elements

  8. Vulnerability and controllability of networks of networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Xueming; Peng, Hao; Gao, Jianxi

    2015-01-01

    Network science is a highly interdisciplinary field ranging from natural science to engineering technology and it has been applied to model complex systems and used to explain their behaviors. Most previous studies have been focus on isolated networks, but many real-world networks do in fact interact with and depend on other networks via dependency connectivities, forming “networks of networks” (NON). The interdependence between networks has been found to largely increase the vulnerability of interacting systems, when a node in one network fails, it usually causes dependent nodes in other networks to fail, which, in turn, may cause further damage on the first network and result in a cascade of failures with sometimes catastrophic consequences, e.g., electrical blackouts caused by the interdependence of power grids and communication networks. The vulnerability of a NON can be analyzed by percolation theory that can be used to predict the critical threshold where a NON collapses. We review here the analytic framework for analyzing the vulnerability of NON, which yields novel percolation laws for n-interdependent networks and also shows that percolation theory of a single network studied extensively in physics and mathematics in the last 50 years is a specific limited case of the more general case of n interacting networks. Understanding the mechanism behind the cascading failure in NON enables us finding methods to decrease the vulnerability of the natural systems and design of more robust infrastructure systems. By examining the vulnerability of NON under targeted attack and studying the real interdependent systems, we find two methods to decrease the systems vulnerability: (1) protect the high-degree nodes, and (2) increase the degree correlation between networks. Furthermore, the ultimate proof of our understanding of natural and technological systems is reflected in our ability to control them. We also review the recent studies and challenges on the

  9. Individual Differences in Animal Stress Models: Considering Resilience, Vulnerability, and the Amygdala in Mediating the Effects of Stress and Conditioned Fear on Sleep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellman, Laurie L; Fitzpatrick, Mairen E; Hallum, Olga Y; Sutton, Amy M; Williams, Brook L; Sanford, Larry D

    2016-06-01

    To examine the REM sleep response to stress and fearful memories as a potential marker of stress resilience and vulnerability and to assess the role of the basolateral amygdala (BLA) in mediating the effects of fear memory on sleep. Outbred Wistar rats were surgically implanted with electrodes for recording EEG and EMG and with bilateral guide cannulae directed at the BLA. Data loggers were placed intraperitoneally to record core body temperature. After recovery from surgery, the rats received shock training (ST: 20 footshocks, 0.8 mA, 0.5-s duration, 60-s interstimulus interval) and afterwards received microinjections of the GABAA agonist muscimol (MUS; 1.0 μM) to inactivate BLA or microinjections of vehicle (VEH) alone. Subsequently, the rats were separated into 4 groups (VEH-vulnerable (VEH-Vul; n = 14), VEH-resilient (VEH-Res; n = 13), MUS-vulnerable (MUS-Vul; n = 8), and MUS-resilient (MUS-Res; n = 11) based on whether or not REM was decreased, compared to baseline, during the first 4 h following ST. We then compared sleep, freezing, and the stress response (stress-induced hyperthermia, SIH) across groups to determine the effects of ST and fearful context re-exposure alone (CTX). REM was significantly reduced on the ST day in both VEH-Vul and MUS-Vul rats; however, post-ST MUS blocked the reduction in REM on the CTX day in the MUS-Vul group. The VEH-Res and MUS-Res rats showed similar levels of REM on both ST and CTX days. The effects of post-ST inactivation of BLA on freezing and SIH were minimal. Outbred Wistar rats can show significant individual differences in the effects of stress on REM that are mediated by BLA. These differences in REM can be independent of behavioral fear and the peripheral stress response, and may be an important biomarker of stress resilience and vulnerability. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  10. Groundwater vulnerability to pollution mapping of Ranchi district using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna, R.; Iqbal, J.; Gorai, A. K.; Pathak, G.; Tuluri, F.; Tchounwou, P. B.

    2015-12-01

    Groundwater pollution due to anthropogenic activities is one of the major environmental problems in urban and industrial areas. The present study demonstrates the integrated approach with GIS and DRASTIC model to derive a groundwater vulnerability to pollution map. The model considers the seven hydrogeological factors [Depth to water table ( D), net recharge ( R), aquifer media ( A), soil media ( S), topography or slope ( T), impact of vadose zone ( I) and hydraulic Conductivity( C)] for generating the groundwater vulnerability to pollution map. The model was applied for assessing the groundwater vulnerability to pollution in Ranchi district, Jharkhand, India. The model was validated by comparing the model output (vulnerability indices) with the observed nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the study area. The reason behind the selection of nitrate is that the major sources of nitrate in groundwater are anthropogenic in nature. Groundwater samples were collected from 30 wells/tube wells distributed in the study area. The samples were analyzed in the laboratory for measuring the nitrate concentrations in groundwater. A sensitivity analysis of the integrated model was performed to evaluate the influence of single parameters on groundwater vulnerability index. New weights were computed for each input parameters to understand the influence of individual hydrogeological factors in vulnerability indices in the study area. Aquifer vulnerability maps generated in this study can be used for environmental planning and groundwater management.

  11. Groundwater vulnerability to pollution mapping of Ranchi district using GIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna, R; Iqbal, J; Gorai, A K; Pathak, G; Tuluri, F; Tchounwou, P B

    2015-12-01

    Groundwater pollution due to anthropogenic activities is one of the major environmental problems in urban and industrial areas. The present study demonstrates the integrated approach with GIS and DRASTIC model to derive a groundwater vulnerability to pollution map. The model considers the seven hydrogeological factors [Depth to water table ( D ), net recharge ( R ), aquifer media ( A ), soil media ( S ), topography or slope ( T ), impact of vadose zone ( I ) and hydraulic Conductivity( C )] for generating the groundwater vulnerability to pollution map. The model was applied for assessing the groundwater vulnerability to pollution in Ranchi district, Jharkhand, India. The model was validated by comparing the model output (vulnerability indices) with the observed nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the study area. The reason behind the selection of nitrate is that the major sources of nitrate in groundwater are anthropogenic in nature. Groundwater samples were collected from 30 wells/tube wells distributed in the study area. The samples were analyzed in the laboratory for measuring the nitrate concentrations in groundwater. A sensitivity analysis of the integrated model was performed to evaluate the influence of single parameters on groundwater vulnerability index. New weights were computed for each input parameters to understand the influence of individual hydrogeological factors in vulnerability indices in the study area. Aquifer vulnerability maps generated in this study can be used for environmental planning and groundwater management.

  12. A structural model for electricity prices with spikes: measurement of spike risk and optimal policies for hydropower plant operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanamura, Takashi

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for electricity prices based on demand and supply, which we call a structural model. We show that the structural model can generate price spikes that fits the observed data better than those generated by other preceding models such as the jump diffusion model and the Box-Cox transformation model. We apply the structural model to obtain the optimal operation policy for a pumped-storage hydropower generator, and show that the structural model can provide more realistic optimal policies than the jump diffusion model. (author)

  13. A structural model for electricity prices with spikes: measurement of spike risk and optimal policies for hydropower plant operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanamura, Takashi [Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo (Japan). Graduate School of International Corporate Strategy; Ohashi, Azuhiko [J-Power, Tokyo (Japan)

    2007-09-15

    This paper proposes a new model for electricity prices based on demand and supply, which we call a structural model. We show that the structural model can generate price spikes that fits the observed data better than those generated by other preceding models such as the jump diffusion model and the Box-Cox transformation model. We apply the structural model to obtain the optimal operation policy for a pumped-storage hydropower generator, and show that the structural model can provide more realistic optimal policies than the jump diffusion model. (author)

  14. Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, T. R.; Townshend, I.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S. A.

    2013-12-01

    While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change may have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. This research operationalizes the IPCC's definition of vulnerability in a sub-national assessment to understand how different factors that shape vulnerability to climate change vary spatially across rural Nicaragua. The research utilizes the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO UN) CropWat model to evaluate how the annual yield of two of Nicaragua's staple crops may change under projected changes in temperature and precipitation. This analysis of agricultural sensitivity under exposure to climate change is then overlain with an indicator-based assessment of adaptive capacity in rural Nicaraguan farming households. Adaptive capacity was evaluated using household survey data from the 2001 National Household Survey on Living Standards Measurement, which was provided to us by the FAO UN. The result is a map representing current vulnerability to future climate change, and can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua.

  15. Assessing infrastructure vulnerability to major floods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenssen, Lars

    1998-12-31

    This thesis proposes a method for assessing the direct effects of serious floods on a physical infrastructure or utility. This method should be useful in contingency planning and in the design of structures likely to be damaged by flooding. A review is given of (1) methods of floodplain management and strategies for mitigating floods, (2) methods of risk analysis that will become increasingly important in flood management, (3) methods for hydraulic computations, (4) a variety of scour assessment methods and (5) applications of geographic information systems (GIS) to the analysis of flood vulnerability. Three computer codes were developed: CULVCAP computes the headwater level for circular and box culverts, SCOUR for assessing riprap stability and scour depths, and FASTFLOOD prepares input rainfall series and input files for the rainfall-runoff model used in the case study. A road system in central Norway was chosen to study how to analyse the flood vulnerability of an infrastructure. Finally, the thesis proposes a method for analysing the flood vulnerability of physical infrastructure. The method involves a general stage that will provide data on which parts of the infrastructure are potentially vulnerable to flooding and how to analyse them, and a specific stage which is concerned with analysing one particular kind of physical infrastructure in a study area. 123 refs., 59 figs., 17 tabs= .

  16. Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cam, Hasan

    2015-05-01

    Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

  17. An Extreme-Value Approach to Anomaly Vulnerability Identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everett, Chris; Maggio, Gaspare; Groen, Frank

    2010-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a method for importance analysis in parametric probabilistic modeling where the result of interest is the identification of potential engineering vulnerabilities associated with postulated anomalies in system behavior. In the context of Accident Precursor Analysis (APA), under which this method has been developed, these vulnerabilities, designated as anomaly vulnerabilities, are conditions that produce high risk in the presence of anomalous system behavior. The method defines a parameter-specific Parameter Vulnerability Importance measure (PVI), which identifies anomaly risk-model parameter values that indicate the potential presence of anomaly vulnerabilities, and allows them to be prioritized for further investigation. This entails analyzing each uncertain risk-model parameter over its credible range of values to determine where it produces the maximum risk. A parameter that produces high system risk for a particular range of values suggests that the system is vulnerable to the modeled anomalous conditions, if indeed the true parameter value lies in that range. Thus, PVI analysis provides a means of identifying and prioritizing anomaly-related engineering issues that at the very least warrant improved understanding to reduce uncertainty, such that true vulnerabilities may be identified and proper corrective actions taken.

  18. Optimization of DRASTIC method by supervised committee machine artificial intelligence to assess groundwater vulnerability for Maragheh-Bonab plain aquifer, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fijani, Elham; Nadiri, Ata Allah; Asghari Moghaddam, Asghar; Tsai, Frank T.-C.; Dixon, Barnali

    2013-10-01

    Contamination of wells with nitrate-N (NO3-N) poses various threats to human health. Contamination of groundwater is a complex process and full of uncertainty in regional scale. Development of an integrative vulnerability assessment methodology can be useful to effectively manage (including prioritization of limited resource allocation to monitor high risk areas) and protect this valuable freshwater source. This study introduces a supervised committee machine with artificial intelligence (SCMAI) model to improve the DRASTIC method for groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Maragheh-Bonab plain aquifer in Iran. Four different AI models are considered in the SCMAI model, whose input is the DRASTIC parameters. The SCMAI model improves the committee machine artificial intelligence (CMAI) model by replacing the linear combination in the CMAI with a nonlinear supervised ANN framework. To calibrate the AI models, NO3-N concentration data are divided in two datasets for the training and validation purposes. The target value of the AI models in the training step is the corrected vulnerability indices that relate to the first NO3-N concentration dataset. After model training, the AI models are verified by the second NO3-N concentration dataset. The results show that the four AI models are able to improve the DRASTIC method. Since the best AI model performance is not dominant, the SCMAI model is considered to combine the advantages of individual AI models to achieve the optimal performance. The SCMAI method re-predicts the groundwater vulnerability based on the different AI model prediction values. The results show that the SCMAI outperforms individual AI models and committee machine with artificial intelligence (CMAI) model. The SCMAI model ensures that no water well with high NO3-N levels would be classified as low risk and vice versa. The study concludes that the SCMAI model is an effective model to improve the DRASTIC model and provides a confident estimate of the

  19. The SAVI Vulnerability Analysis Software Package

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mc Aniff, R.J.; Paulus, W.K.; Key, B.; Simpkins, B.

    1987-01-01

    SAVI (Systematic Analysis of Vulnerability to Intrusion) is a new PC-based software package for modeling Physical Protection Systems (PPS). SAVI utilizes a path analysis approach based on the Adversary Sequence Diagram (ASD) methodology. A highly interactive interface allows the user to accurately model complex facilities, maintain a library of these models on disk, and calculate the most vulnerable paths through any facility. Recommendations are provided to help the user choose facility upgrades which should reduce identified path vulnerabilities. Pop-up windows throughout SAVI are used for the input and display of information. A menu at the top of the screen presents all options to the user. These options are further explained on a message line directly below the menu. A diagram on the screen graphically represents the current protection system model. All input is checked for errors, and data are presented in a logical and clear manner. Print utilities provide the user with hard copies of all information and calculated results

  20. Mental Vulnerability as a Predictor of Early Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eplov, Lene F.; Jørgensen, Torben; Segel, S.

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Studies have demonstrated that mental vulnerability (ie, a tendency to experience psychosomatic symptoms or inadequate interpersonal interactions) is associated with various diseases. The objective of our study is to evaluate whether mental vulnerability is a risk factor for early...... mortality. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 3 random samples of the population in Copenhagen County, Denmark selected in 1976, 1982-1984, and 1991 (n = 6435). Baseline data collection included measures of mental vulnerability, social factors, comorbidity, biologic risk markers (eg, blood...... of mortality as the result of natural causes. The association between mental vulnerability and survival was examined using Kaplan-Meir plots and Cox proportional-hazard models adjusting for possible confounding factors. RESULTS: With respect to mental vulnerability, 79% of the sample was classified...

  1. The Vulnerability of Some Networks including Cycles via Domination Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tufan Turaci

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Let G=(V(G,E(G be an undirected simple connected graph. A network is usually represented by an undirected simple graph where vertices represent processors and edges represent links between processors. Finding the vulnerability values of communication networks modeled by graphs is important for network designers. The vulnerability value of a communication network shows the resistance of the network after the disruption of some centers or connection lines until a communication breakdown. The domination number and its variations are the most important vulnerability parameters for network vulnerability. Some variations of domination numbers are the 2-domination number, the bondage number, the reinforcement number, the average lower domination number, the average lower 2-domination number, and so forth. In this paper, we study the vulnerability of cycles and related graphs, namely, fans, k-pyramids, and n-gon books, via domination parameters. Then, exact solutions of the domination parameters are obtained for the above-mentioned graphs.

  2. All rights reserved Assessment of groundwater vulnerability and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    2017-12-12

    Dec 12, 2017 ... Pollution vulnerability assessment of groundwater resources provides information on how to protect areas ... the application of DRASTIC model, the relationship ..... mathematical structure of consistent matrices and the.

  3. Safeguard Vulnerability Analysis Program (SVAP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilman, F.M.; Dittmore, M.H.; Orvis, W.J.; Wahler, P.S.

    1980-01-01

    This report gives an overview of the Safeguard Vulnerability Analysis Program (SVAP) developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. SVAP was designed as an automated method of analyzing the safeguard systems at nuclear facilities for vulnerabilities relating to the theft or diversion of nuclear materials. SVAP addresses one class of safeguard threat: theft or diversion of nuclear materials by nonviolent insiders, acting individually or in collusion. SVAP is a user-oriented tool which uses an interactive input medium for preprocessing the large amounts of safeguards data. Its output includes concise summary data as well as detailed vulnerability information

  4. Vulnerable populations: cultural and spiritual direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quest, Tammie E; Franks, Nicole M

    2006-08-01

    Cultural, spiritual, and religious diversity of emergency department patients is increasing while that of emergency physicians in particular remains predominantly homogeneous. With a discordance of cultural, race, and ethnicity exist, in the case of ethical conflict -resolution becomes that much more difficult. Patients may feel vulnerable when their emergency care provider does not understand his or her cultural, spiritual, and religious uniqueness as it relates to the patient-doctor interaction and health care decision making. This review will examine (1) language differences; (2) cultural, religious, and spiritual differences between patient and provider; (3) differing explanatory models of disease between patient and provider; and (4) diverse bioethical models of decision making of differing cultures in an effort to reduce vulnerabilities.

  5. Impact of performance interdependencies on structural vulnerability: A systems perspective of storm surge risk to coastal residential communities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatzikyriakou, Adam; Lin, Ning

    2017-01-01

    Interaction between residential structures during natural hazards can lead to interdependencies in their performance. During storm surge, for example, structures can affect the performance of inland buildings by generating damaging waterborne debris or by beneficially dampening surge loads. Quantifying the impact of this interaction on structural vulnerability is critical for risk assessment and informed decision-making. In this study we present and implement two general modeling approaches for investigating such interdependencies. The first method is to condition the vulnerability of a structure on the performance of neighboring buildings using a Markov model. The second uses a marginal model to account for correlation between damage observations when estimating a structure's vulnerability to the hazard. Both approaches are implemented using a case study of an impacted coastal community during Hurricane Sandy (2012). Findings indicate that a structure's performance during storm surge is strongly dependent on the damage state of the structure immediately seaward. Furthermore, considering the correlated damage states of buildings increases statistical uncertainty when relating structural performance to hazard intensity. Motivated by these findings, we propose a more coordinated approach to coastal risk mitigation which considers the effects of interdependencies on insurance pricing, structural design, mitigation strategies and community resilience. - Highlights: • Interaction between residential structures leads to performance interdependencies. • Interdependencies during storm surge are due to debris and structural shielding. • Markov model treats interdependencies as an additional demand parameter. • Marginal model incorporates damage correlation into regression estimation. • System behavior should be considered in community risk and resilience.

  6. Examining social, physical, and environmental dimensions of tornado vulnerability in Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebeneck, Laura

    2016-01-01

    To develop a vulnerability model that captures the social, physical, and environmental dimensions of tornado vulnerability of Texas counties. Guided by previous research and methodologies proposed in the hazards and emergency management literature, a principle components analysis is used to create a tornado vulnerability index. Data were gathered from open source information available through the US Census Bureau, American Community Surveys, and the Texas Natural Resources Information System. Texas counties. The results of the model yielded three indices that highlight geographic variability of social vulnerability, built environment vulnerability, and tornado hazard throughout Texas. Further analyses suggest that counties with the highest tornado vulnerability include those with high population densities and high tornado risk. This article demonstrates one method for assessing statewide tornado vulnerability and presents how the results of this type of analysis can be applied by emergency managers towards the reduction of tornado vulnerability in their communities.

  7. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Richard A; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-05-13

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  8. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-01-01

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  9. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Richard A.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-05-01

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  10. Do depressive episodes lead to accumulation of vulnerability in the elderly?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oldehinkel, AJ; van den Berg, MD; Bouhuys, AL; Ormel, J

    2003-01-01

    The vulnerability-accumulation (or scarring) hypothesis postulates that the experience of depression induces a lasting increase in vulnerability, and through this raises the risk of recurrence. We examined the validity of the vulnerability-accumulation model for depressive episodes in later life.

  11. Poverty and Vulnerability - An Interdisciplinary Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Makoka, Donald; Kaplan, Marcus

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes the concepts of poverty and vulnerability as well as the interconnections and differences between them using an interdisciplinary approach. While poverty is a static concept, vulnerability has a forward-looking dimension. We, therefore, review the methodologies that different disciplines use to measure poverty and vulnerability. In particular, the differences between vulnerability to natural disasters, vulnerability to climate change, as well as vulnerability to poverty a...

  12. CDC's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Social vulnerability refers to the resilience of communities when confronted by external stresses on human health, stresses such as natural or human-caused...

  13. CALTRANS CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The following report was developed for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to summarize a vulnerability assessment conducted for assets in Caltrans District 4. The assessment was developed to specifically identify the potential eff...

  14. Network Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alward, Randy G; Carley, Kathleen M; Madsen, Fredrik; Taylor, Vincent K; Vandenberghe, Grant

    2006-01-01

    To help understand a network and its ability to continue operating when under attack, the break out group discussed issues that need to be considered when presenting network vulnerability information...

  15. Intentional cargo disruption by nefarious means: Examining threats, systemic vulnerabilities and securitisation measures in complex global supply chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGreevy, Conor; Harrop, Wayne

    2015-01-01

    Global trade and commerce requires products to be securely contained and transferred in a timely way across great distances and between national boundaries. Throughout the process, cargo and containers are stored, handled and checked by a range of authorities and authorised agents. Intermodal transportation involves the use of container ships, planes, railway systems, land bridges, road networks and barges. This paper examines the the nefarious nature of intentional disruption and nefarious risks associated with the movement of cargo and container freight. The paper explores main threats, vulnerabilities and security measures relevant to significant intermodal transit risk issues such as theft, piracy, terrorism, contamination, counterfeiting and product tampering. Three risk and vulnerability models are examined and basic standards and regulations that are relevant to safe and secure transit of container goods across international supply networks are outlined.

  16. Vulnerability Assessments in Ethical Hacking

    OpenAIRE

    Ashiqur Rahman ,; Md. SarwarAlam Rasel; Asaduzzaman Noman; Shakh Md. Alimuzjaman Alim

    2016-01-01

    Ethical hackers use the same methods and techniques to test and bypass a system's defenses as their less-principled counterparts, but rather than taking advantage of any vulnerabilities found, they document them and provide actionable advice on how to fix them so the organization can improve its overall security. The purpose of ethical hacking is to evaluate the security of a network or system's infrastructure. It entails finding and attempting to exploit any vulnerabilities to de...

  17. Software Design Level Security Vulnerabilities

    OpenAIRE

    S. Rehman; K. Mustafa

    2011-01-01

    Several thousand software design vulnerabilities have been reported through established databases. But they need to be structured and classified to be optimally usable in the pursuit of minimal and effective mitigation mechanism. In order we developed a criterion set for a communicative description of the same to serve the purpose as a taxonomic description of security vulnerabilities, arising in the design phase of Software development lifecycle. This description is a part of an effort to id...

  18. Quantitative Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber Security for Distribution Automation Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaming Ye

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The distribution automation system (DAS is vulnerable to cyber-attacks due to the widespread use of terminal devices and standard communication protocols. On account of the cost of defense, it is impossible to ensure the security of every device in the DAS. Given this background, a novel quantitative vulnerability assessment model of cyber security for DAS is developed in this paper. In the assessment model, the potential physical consequences of cyber-attacks are analyzed from two levels: terminal device level and control center server level. Then, the attack process is modeled based on game theory and the relationships among different vulnerabilities are analyzed by introducing a vulnerability adjacency matrix. Finally, the application process of the proposed methodology is illustrated through a case study based on bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS. The results demonstrate the reasonability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  19. Evaluación de la vulnerabilidad a la degradación por erosión en suelos mediante un modelo de lógica borrosa Assessment of soil vulnerability to erosion by a fuzzy logic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Melendez-Pastor

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Se presenta un modelo simplificado para evaluar la vulnerabilidad de suelos a proce­sos degradativos, tales como la erosión. Es­tá basado en el empleo de la lógica borrosa para operar con variables predictivas con­tinuas estimadas a partir de imágenes de te­ledetección y modelos digitales de eleva­ciones. Combina variables explicativas re­lativas al estado de la cubierta vegetal y di-versos parámetros topográficos. Las esti­maciones se realizan mediante un sistema de decisión implementado en un sistema de información geográfica (SIG, obteniéndo­se mapas de vulnerabilidad que pueden ser actualizados con nuevas imágenes de saté­lite. La zona estudiada se localiza en el su­reste peninsular, caracterizado por un clima Mediterráneo semiárido. Se estimaron altas tasas de vulnerabilidad para todas las esti­maciones realizadas, en relación a los um­brales máximos y mínimos esperables. Se estudio la respuesta de los cambios de vul­nerabilidad en relación a los cambios de clases de erosión actual a potencial según el modelo USLE. Se estimó una alta corre­lación entre los cambios de clases de ero sión y los cambios de estimaciones de vul­nerabilidad.A simplified fuzzy logic model to assess soil vulnerability to degradation processes, such as soil erosion, is presented. The model is based on the use of fuzzy logic to operate with explanatory continuous variables esti­mated from remote sensing images and digi­tal elevation models. It combines explana­tory variables concerning the state of vege­tation cover and topographic parameters. The estimations are made by a decision sys­tem implemented in a geographic informa­tion system (GIS. Output vulnerability maps can be updated with new satellite im­ages. The study area is located on the south­east Iberian Peninsula, characterized by a semiarid Mediterranean climate. It was found high vulnerability for all estimations in relation to the expected maximum and minimum

  20. Groundwater vulnerability maps for pesticides for Flanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dams, Jef; Joris, Ingeborg; Bronders, Jan; Van Looy, Stijn; Vanden Boer, Dirk; Heuvelmans, Griet; Seuntjens, Piet

    2017-04-01

    Pesticides are increasingly being detected in shallow groundwater and and are one of the main causes of the poor chemical status of phreatic groundwater bodies in Flanders. There is a need for groundwater vulnerability maps in order to design monitoring strategies and land-use strategies for sensitive areas such as drinking water capture zones. This research focuses on the development of generic vulnerability maps for pesticides for Flanders and a tool to calculate substance-specific vulnerability maps at the scale of Flanders and at the local scale. (1) The generic vulnerability maps are constructed using an index based method in which maps of the main contributing factors in soil and saturated zone to high concentrations of pesticides in groundwater are classified and overlain. Different weights are assigned to the contributing factors according to the type of pesticide (low/high mobility, low/high persistence). Factors that are taken into account are the organic matter content and texture of soil, depth of the unsaturated zone, organic carbon and redox potential of the phreatic groundwater and thickness and conductivity of the phreatic layer. (2) Secondly a tool is developed that calculates substance-specific vulnerability maps for Flanders using a hybrid approach where a process-based leaching model GeoPEARL is combined with vulnerability indices that account for dilution in the phreatic layer. The GeoPEARL model is parameterized for Flanders in 1434 unique combinations of soil properties, climate and groundwater depth. Leaching is calculated for a 20 year period for each 50 x 50 m gridcell in Flanders. (3) At the local scale finally, a fully process-based approach is applied combining GeoPEARL leaching calculations and flowline calculations of pesticide transport in the saturated zone to define critical zones in the capture zone of a receptor such as a drinking water well or a river segment. The three approaches are explained more in detail and illustrated

  1. Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

    2017-07-01

    In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

  2. Development of information security and vulnerability risk management system for J-PARC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishikawa, Hiroyuki; Tate, Akihiro; Murakami, Tadashi

    2012-02-01

    In J-PARC (Japan Proton Accelerator Research Complex) we have set up intra-network (internal network, we will abbreviate it as JLAN, below) to support research activity and communication among users. In JLAN, we set up various kinds of security devices to keep JLAN secure. However, the servers which provide information or service to public are still in danger of being accessed illegally. If there is an illegal access, that may cause defacement of data or information leak. Furthermore, the victim servers are manipulated by the malicious attackers, and they themselves attack the external information equipments. Vulnerability of servers enables unauthorized access. So, vulnerability test with use of a vulnerability tool is one of the most effective ways to take measures for vulnerability of the equipments. However, it is not enough to just conduct a vulnerability test. It is also essential for information security to take measures to cover constantly for the vulnerability of servers. We focused on the points above, and developed the vulnerability testing system for security. It is not only a testing tool for the vulnerability of servers, but also management system which enables the server administrators in charge of taking measures for vulnerabilities to manage risks and handles PDCA (Plan-Do-Check-Action) cycles as countermeasure for vulnerability. In this paper, we report the technologies and ingenuities for the development of the above system. (author)

  3. Rethinking vulnerability analysis and governance with emphasis on a participatory approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossignol, Nicolas; Delvenne, Pierre; Turcanu, Catrinel

    2015-01-01

    This article draws on vulnerability analysis as it emerged as a complement to classical risk analysis, and it aims at exploring its ability for nurturing risk and vulnerability governance actions. An analysis of the literature on vulnerability analysis allows us to formulate a three-fold critique: first, vulnerability analysis has been treated separately in the natural and the technological hazards fields. This separation prevents vulnerability from unleashing the full range of its potential, as it constrains appraisals into artificial categories and thus already closes down the outcomes of the analysis. Second, vulnerability analysis focused on assessment tools that are mainly quantitative, whereas qualitative appraisal is a key to assessing vulnerability in a comprehensive way and to informing policy making. Third, a systematic literature review of case studies reporting on participatory approaches to vulnerability analysis allows us to argue that participation has been important to address the above, but it remains too closed down in its approach and would benefit from embracing a more open, encompassing perspective. Therefore, we suggest rethinking vulnerability analysis as one part of a dynamic process between opening-up and closing-down strategies, in order to support a vulnerability governance framework. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, P. K.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Varner, J.

    2006-12-01

    The results of a pilot study to assess the risk from tsunamis for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon region will be presented. To determine the risk from tsunamis, it is first necessary to establish the hazard or probability that a tsunami of a particular magnitude will occur within a certain period of time. Tsunami inundation maps that provide 100-year and 500-year probabilistic tsunami wave height contours for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon, region were developed as part of an interagency Tsunami Pilot Study(1). These maps provided the probability of the tsunami hazard. The next step in determining risk is to determine the vulnerability or degree of loss resulting from the occurrence of tsunamis due to exposure and fragility. The tsunami vulnerability assessment methodology used in this study was developed by M. Papathoma and others(2). This model incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters related to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. Data provided with FEMA's HAZUS loss estimation software and Clatsop County, Oregon, tax assessment data were used as input to the model. The results, presented within a geographic information system, reveal the percentage of buildings in need of reinforcement and the population density in different inundation depth zones. These results can be used for tsunami mitigation, local planning, and for determining post-tsunami disaster response by emergency services. (1)Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study--Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps, Joint NOAA/USGS/FEMA Special Report, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2006, Final Draft. (2)Papathoma, M., D. Dominey-Howes, D.,Y. Zong, D. Smith, Assessing Tsunami Vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 3, 2003, p. 377-389.

  5. A Comprehensive Assessment and Spatial Analysis of Vulnerability of China’s Provincial Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chongqiang Ren

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability theory is a fundamental scientific knowledge system in sustainable development, and vulnerability assessment is important in vulnerability studies. Economic vulnerability affects economic growth sustainability. Comprehensive assessment of economic vulnerability in the process of economic growth under the theoretical framework of vulnerability will provide a new perspective for vulnerability studies. Based on a vulnerability scoping diagram assessment model, this study selected 22 economic sensitivity indexes and 25 economic adaptability indexes from the economic, social, and nature–resource–environmental subsystems to comprehensively assess and spatially analyse the vulnerability of China’s provincial economies since the year 2000, while applying the entropy method, multilevel extension assessment, spatial measurement method, and geographic information system technology. The results showed the following: (1 There are great differences in the vulnerability of China’s provincial economies. Western China’s vulnerability is higher and the fluctuation range of economic vulnerability is larger. The vulnerability increased significantly based on spatial differential features; (2 Regional differences in economic vulnerability, mainly caused by differences within a region, increased gradually. Eastern and Western China showed the spatial pattern characteristics of prominent and reinforcing regional imbalance, while Central and Northeast China showed declining regional imbalance. The spatial structure evolution of economic vulnerability is characterized by a volatility curve, and regional separation and divergence are strengthened; (3 Growth of China’s provincial economies and economic vulnerability are related negatively. In Eastern, Central, and Northeast China, vulnerability of the provincial economies has a negative spillover effect on neighbouring provinces’ economic growth, while in Western China it has a slight positive

  6. Macrophage inflammatory protein-1α shows predictive value as a risk marker for subjects and sites vulnerable to bone loss in a longitudinal model of aggressive periodontitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fine, Daniel H; Markowitz, Kenneth; Fairlie, Karen; Tischio-Bereski, Debbie; Ferrandiz, Javier; Godboley, Dipti; Furgang, David; Gunsolley, John; Best, Al

    2014-01-01

    Improved diagnostics remains a fundamental goal of biomedical research. This study was designed to assess cytokine biomarkers that could predict bone loss (BL) in localized aggressive periodontitis. 2,058 adolescents were screened. Two groups of 50 periodontally healthy adolescents were enrolled in the longitudinal study. One group had Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans (Aa), the putative pathogen, while the matched cohort did not. Cytokine levels were assessed in saliva and gingival crevicular fluid (GCF). Participants were sampled, examined, and radiographed every 6 months for 2-3 years. Disease was defined as radiographic evidence of BL. Saliva and GCF was collected at each visit, frozen, and then tested retrospectively after detection of BL. Sixteen subjects with Aa developed BL. Saliva from Aa-positive and Aa-negative healthy subjects was compared to subjects who developed BL. GCF was collected from 16 subjects with BL and from another 38 subjects who remained healthy. GCF from BL sites in the 16 subjects was compared to healthy sites in these same subjects and to healthy sites in subjects who remained healthy. Results showed that cytokines in saliva associated with acute inflammation were elevated in subjects who developed BL (i.e., MIP-1α MIP-1β IL-α, IL-1β and IL-8; p<0.01). MIP-1α was elevated 13-fold, 6 months prior to BL. When MIP-1α levels were set at 40 pg/ml, 98% of healthy sites were below that level (Specificity); whereas, 93% of sites with BL were higher (Sensitivity), with comparable Predictive Values of 98%; p<0.0001; 95% C.I. = 42.5-52.7). MIP-1α consistently showed elevated levels as a biomarker for BL in both saliva and GCF, 6 months prior to BL. MIP-1α continues to demonstrate its strong candidacy as a diagnostic biomarker for both subject and site vulnerability to BL.

  7. Macrophage inflammatory protein-1α shows predictive value as a risk marker for subjects and sites vulnerable to bone loss in a longitudinal model of aggressive periodontitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel H Fine

    Full Text Available Improved diagnostics remains a fundamental goal of biomedical research. This study was designed to assess cytokine biomarkers that could predict bone loss (BL in localized aggressive periodontitis. 2,058 adolescents were screened. Two groups of 50 periodontally healthy adolescents were enrolled in the longitudinal study. One group had Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans (Aa, the putative pathogen, while the matched cohort did not. Cytokine levels were assessed in saliva and gingival crevicular fluid (GCF. Participants were sampled, examined, and radiographed every 6 months for 2-3 years. Disease was defined as radiographic evidence of BL. Saliva and GCF was collected at each visit, frozen, and then tested retrospectively after detection of BL. Sixteen subjects with Aa developed BL. Saliva from Aa-positive and Aa-negative healthy subjects was compared to subjects who developed BL. GCF was collected from 16 subjects with BL and from another 38 subjects who remained healthy. GCF from BL sites in the 16 subjects was compared to healthy sites in these same subjects and to healthy sites in subjects who remained healthy. Results showed that cytokines in saliva associated with acute inflammation were elevated in subjects who developed BL (i.e., MIP-1α MIP-1β IL-α, IL-1β and IL-8; p<0.01. MIP-1α was elevated 13-fold, 6 months prior to BL. When MIP-1α levels were set at 40 pg/ml, 98% of healthy sites were below that level (Specificity; whereas, 93% of sites with BL were higher (Sensitivity, with comparable Predictive Values of 98%; p<0.0001; 95% C.I. = 42.5-52.7. MIP-1α consistently showed elevated levels as a biomarker for BL in both saliva and GCF, 6 months prior to BL. MIP-1α continues to demonstrate its strong candidacy as a diagnostic biomarker for both subject and site vulnerability to BL.

  8. Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D

    2017-09-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Conceptual and experimental approach to the vulnerability of human resources in the evolving structure of the national power system to 2030 period

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dan Gheorghiu, Ioan; Visa, Ion; Carabulea, Anatol; Morar, Adrian; Popper, Laurentiu; Popper, Gabriel; Bucur, Camelia

    2010-09-15

    We present the causes generating vulnerabilities and propose the models for diminishing the risks and catastrophes based on the education of the human resources incorporated in the evolution of the local power system and not only. We specify the fuzzy structure of the model for increasing the quality of the human factor and of the models for rating the human resources in power plants and the networks of the power systems exemplified on the evolving structure of the Romanian installations subject to dynamic reconfiguring over the forecast interval (2020 - 2035).

  10. Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Gurnain Pasricha; Tom Roberts; Ian Christensen; Brad Howell

    2013-01-01

    This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use...

  11. Assessing environmental vulnerability in EIA-The content and context of the vulnerability concept in an alternative approach to standard EIA procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kvaerner, Jens; Swensen, Grete; Erikstad, Lars

    2006-01-01

    In the traditional EIA procedure environmental vulnerability is only considered to a minor extent in the early stages when project alternatives are worked out. In Norway, an alternative approach to EIA, an integrated vulnerability model (IVM), emphasising environmental vulnerability and alternatives development in the early stages of EIA, has been tried out in a few pilot cases. This paper examines the content and use of the vulnerability concept in the IVM approach, and discusses the concept in an EIA context. The vulnerability concept is best suited to overview analyses and large scale spatial considerations. The concept is particularly useful in the early stages of EIA when alternatives are designed and screened. By introducing analyses of environmental vulnerability at the start of the EIA process, the environment can be a more decisive issue for the creation of project alternatives as well as improving the basis for scoping. Vulnerability and value aspects should be considered as separate dimensions. There is a need to operate with a specification between general and specific vulnerability. The concept of environmental vulnerability has proven useful in a wide range of disciplines. Different disciplines have different lengths of experience regarding vulnerability. In disciplines such as landscape planning and hydrogeology we find elements suitable as cornerstones in the further development of an interdisciplinary methodology. Further development of vulnerability criteria in different disciplines and increased public involvement in the early stages of EIA are recommended

  12. Europe's vulnerability to energy crises

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-01-15

    The growing dependency of Europe as a whole on energy imports and anticipated further increases in energy prices reinforce the concerns about meeting the energy demand in the future. The objective of the Study is to identify the threats leading to potential energy crises and suggest solutions for facing, in an appropriate way, the related key challenges. In addition, the Study intends to develop a number of indicators effective enough to assess the level of different types of vulnerability, as well the overall vulnerability of a country or region, including threats to physical disruption, higher energy prices etc. The use of vulnerability indicators is highly recommended for all WEC-European countries, as well as to policy makers and market players.

  13. Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

  14. «Resource class» model for inclusion of children with ASD from the point of view of education management: risks and possibilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pogonina O.

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available «Resource class», or «Resource zone», is a model of inclusive education for children with autism spectrum disorders that has proved its effectivity in integraing children to comprehensive school system for the past five years. A resource class is a place where the resources for inclusion of a child with autism of other mental disorders into the school community are gathered. Here, the point of ‘resource class’ model is explained, described are the experience of introduction of resource zone technology, risks and problems appearing when creating a resource class in school. Member of the council of the Regional public organization to help children with autism spectrum disorders «Contact», educators, shares her experience in creating a resource class for autistic children with parents’ effort in «School № 2009» in Moscow.

  15. Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

  16. Innovative practice model to optimize resource utilization and improve access to care for high-risk and BRCA+ patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Head, Linden; Nessim, Carolyn; Usher Boyd, Kirsty

    2017-02-01

    Bilateral prophylactic mastectomy (BPM) has demonstrated breast cancer risk reduction in high-risk/ BRCA + patients. However, priority of active cancers coupled with inefficient use of operating room (OR) resources presents challenges in offering BPM in a timely manner. To address these challenges, a rapid access prophylactic mastectomy and immediate reconstruction (RAPMIR) program was innovated. The purpose of this study was to evaluate RAPMIR with regards to access to care and efficiency. We retrospectively reviewed the cases of all high-risk/ BRCA + patients having had BPM between September 2012 and August 2014. Patients were divided into 2 groups: those managed through the traditional model and those managed through the RAPMIR model. RAPMIR leverages 2 concurrently running ORs with surgical oncology and plastic surgery moving between rooms to complete 3 combined BPMs with immediate reconstruction in addition to 1-2 independent cases each operative day. RAPMIR eligibility criteria included high-risk/ BRCA + status; BPM with immediate, implant-based reconstruction; and day surgery candidacy. Wait times, case volumes and patient throughput were measured and compared. There were 16 traditional patients and 13 RAPMIR patients. Mean wait time (days from referral to surgery) for RAPMIR was significantly shorter than for the traditional model (165.4 v. 309.2 d, p = 0.027). Daily patient throughput (4.3 v. 2.8), plastic surgery case volume (3.7 v. 1.6) and surgical oncology case volume (3.0 v. 2.2) were significantly greater in the RAPMIR model than the traditional model ( p = 0.003, p < 0.001 and p = 0.015, respectively). A multidisciplinary model with optimized scheduling has the potential to improve access to care and optimize resource utilization.

  17. Vulnerability in north- central Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casse, Thorkil; Milhøj, Anders; Nguyen, Thao Phuong

    2015-01-01

    This article examines changes in livelihood strategies in response to flooding. It does so on the basis of a household survey which was undertaken in three provinces in north central Vietnam. All households in the survey were regularly affected by flooding, but only poor households experience a l...... the impact of flooding in the provinces. The article ends by looking at the vulnerability-resilience debate concluding that the poorer households could enter a vulnerability loop, unless new strategies to cope with natural hazards are suggested....

  18. Managing a network vulnerability assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R; Blackley, John A

    2003-01-01

    Managing a Network Vulnerability Assessment provides a formal framework for finding and eliminating network security threats, ensuring that no vulnerabilities are overlooked. This thorough overview focuses on the steps necessary to successfully manage an assessment, including the development of a scope statement, the understanding and proper use of assessment methodology, the creation of an expert assessment team, and the production of a valuable response report. The book also details what commercial, freeware, and shareware tools are available, how they work, and how to use them.

  19. Racial Discrimination, Ethnic-Racial Socialization, and Crime: A Micro-Sociological Model of Risk and Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, Callie Harbin; Simons, Ronald L.; Gibbons, Frederick X.

    2012-01-01

    Dominant theoretical explanations of racial disparities in criminal offending overlook a key risk factor associated with race: interpersonal racial discrimination. Building on recent studies that analyze race and crime at the micro-level, we specify a social psychological model linking personal experiences with racial discrimination to an…

  20. A multi-objective model for locating distribution centers in a supply chain network considering risk and inventory decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Gharegozloo Hamedani

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a multi-objective location problem in a three level supply chain network under uncertain environment considering inventory decisions. The proposed model of this paper considers uncertainty for different parameters including procurement, transportation costs, supply, demand and the capacity of various facilities. The proposed model presents a robust optimization model, which specifies locations of distribution centers to be opened, inventory control parameters (r, Q, and allocation of supply chain components, concurrently. The resulted mixed-integer nonlinear programming minimizes the expected total cost of such a supply chain network comprising location, procurement, transportation, holding, ordering, and shortage costs. The model also minimizes the variability of the total cost of relief chain and minimizes the financial risk or the probability of not meeting a certain budget. We use the ε-constraint method, which is a multi-objective technique with implicit trade-off information given, to solve the problem and using a couple of numerical instances, we examine the performance of the proposed approach.