Consideration of Risk in PPP-Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Josef Zimmermann

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Risk management has become a core competence for companies operating in construction services. In particular regarding Real Estate Development and Construction Management the fundamental knowledge and the dedicated ap- plication of risk assessment turn out to be critical. Construction Management deals with a multitude of local and temporal issues which are unknown or only given by statistical evaluation while conducting a unique construction project within a very tight frame of budget and time. Real Estate projects focus on the predictability of profitable operation for a fairly long period in advance and are therefore subject to many more and more voluminous uncertainties. With PPP-projects a more or less complete federal task is awarded to a private company. Its extent varies but com- prises at least design, construction and operation of a real estate project, e.g. a toll road, bridge, tunnel or other infrastructural object. Durations of such contracts of- ten extend to some 20 to 30 years. In this article the applicability of traditional means of risk management is inves- tigated for the use on PPP-projects and limits of risk consequences are pointed out. Finally we come to the conclusion, that the resulting unavertable risks tend to exceed every surcharge that could be successfully placed on a market.

Incorporation of Indigenous Forces in Major Theater War: Advantages, Risks and Considerations

Science.gov (United States)

2004-05-03

training exercises and programs like the International Military Education and Training (IMET) program, to name a few, the United States has a far better...USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT INCORPORATION OF INDIGENOUS FORCES IN MAJOR THEATER WAR: ADVANTAGES , RISKS AND CONSIDERATIONS by Ms. Priscilla... Advantages , Risks and Considerations 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Priscilla Sellers 5d. PROJECT NUMBER

Sensation seeking related to varied definition of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dastol, O.U.; Drottz-Sjoberg, B.M.

1998-01-01

This pilot study is based on the assumption that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. It has been shown in previous risk perception studies that some people report their definition or normal use of the concept of risk as e.g. mainly probability, a combination of probability and consequences, mainly consequences, or due to the nature of the event (Drottz-Sjoeberg, 1991). Another field of research has developed measures for personality traits, i.e. facets of Sensation Seeking; Disinhibition, Thrill and Adventure Seeking, Experience Seeking, and Boredom Susceptibility (Zuckerman, 1994). The design of the present study involved three independent groups of first year psychology students (N=93). They were presented with one of three response formats regarding their normal use of the word risk, i.e. an open-ended format, separate ratings of four items suggesting a definition of risk on five-point scales, and one single five-point scale with the extremes labelled probability and consequences, and with their combination as the scale mid-point. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was 'danger', but among the responses were also 'chance', and 'outcome'. Another finding was that people who defined risk as 'outcome' and 'chance', using the open-ended format tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale than those who defined risk as 'danger'. In addition, subjects who defined risk as the 'combination' of probability and consequences, using other response formats, also tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS), especially as compared to those defining risk as the 'probability' of an event. (authors)

Varying coefficient subdistribution regression for left-truncated semi-competing risks data.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ruosha; Peng, Limin

2014-10-01

Semi-competing risks data frequently arise in biomedical studies when time to a disease landmark event is subject to dependent censoring by death, the observation of which however is not precluded by the occurrence of the landmark event. In observational studies, the analysis of such data can be further complicated by left truncation. In this work, we study a varying co-efficient subdistribution regression model for left-truncated semi-competing risks data. Our method appropriately accounts for the specifical truncation and censoring features of the data, and moreover has the flexibility to accommodate potentially varying covariate effects. The proposed method can be easily implemented and the resulting estimators are shown to have nice asymptotic properties. We also present inference, such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov type and Cramér Von-Mises type hypothesis testing procedures for the covariate effects. Simulation studies and an application to the Denmark diabetes registry demonstrate good finite-sample performance and practical utility of the proposed method.

Cost-oriented evaluation of ecosystem services under consideration of income risks and risk attitudes of farmers.

Science.gov (United States)

Dörschner, T; Musshoff, O

2013-09-30

Agri-environmental measures are often not as accepted among farmers as is expected. The present study investigates whether changes in income risks and the individual risk attitudes of farmers may constitute an explanatory approach for the low acceptance of the measures. For this purpose, a normative model is developed that calculates the premia claimed by the farmers for adopting environmental measures under the consideration of income risks and different risk attitudes. We apply this model to environmental measures aiming at an increase of the faunistic diversity of species on grassland and showing that changes in income risks and the decision makers' risk attitudes can significantly influence farmers' minimum compensation claims. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Responding to and Supporting Students with Disabilities: Risk Management Considerations

Science.gov (United States)

Lundquist, Anne; Shackelford, Allan

2011-01-01

Making the "right" risk management decisions involving students with significant psychological disabilities requires a clear and comprehensive understanding of the legal obligations and duties at issue. It also requires taking into consideration the best interests of these individual students. At the same time, decision makers must focus…

Risk-benefit considerations in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lugaresi A

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Alessandra Lugaresi,1 Maria di Ioia,1 Daniela Travaglini,1 Erika Pietrolongo,1 Eugenio Pucci,2 Marco Onofrj11Department of Neuroscience and Imaging, University “G d’Annunzio”, Chieti, 2Operative Unit Neurologia ASUR Marche Area Vasta 3, Macerata, ItalyAbstract: Multiple sclerosis (MS is a chronic demyelinating disease of the central nervous system and mainly affects young adults. Its natural history has changed in recent years with the advent of disease-modifying drugs, which have been available since the early 1990s. The increasing number of first-line and second-line treatment options, together with the variable course of the disease and patient lifestyles and expectations, makes the therapeutic decision a real challenge. The aim of this review is to give a comprehensive overview of the main present and some future drugs for relapsing-remitting MS, including risk-benefit considerations, to enable readers to draw their own conclusions regarding the risk-benefit assessment of personalized treatment strategies, taking into account not only treatment-related but also disease-related risks. We performed a Medline literature search to identify studies on the treatment of MS with risk stratification and risk-benefit considerations. We focused our attention on studies of disease-modifying, immunomodulating, and immunosuppressive drugs, including monoclonal antibodies. Here we offer personal considerations, stemming from long-term experience in the treatment of MS and thorough discussions with other neurologists closely involved in the care of patients with the disease. MS specialists need to know not only the specific risks and benefits of single drugs, but also about drug interactions, either in simultaneous or serial combination therapy, and patient comorbidities, preferences, and fears. This has to be put into perspective, considering also the risks of untreated disease in patients with different clinical and radiological characteristics

The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method

Science.gov (United States)

Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji

2017-12-01

Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.

On the Anonymity Risk of Time-Varying User Profiles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvia Puglisi

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Websites and applications use personalisation services to profile their users, collect their patterns and activities and eventually use this data to provide tailored suggestions. User preferences and social interactions are therefore aggregated and analysed. Every time a user publishes a new post or creates a link with another entity, either another user, or some online resource, new information is added to the user profile. Exposing private data does not only reveal information about single users’ preferences, increasing their privacy risk, but can expose more about their network that single actors intended. This mechanism is self-evident in social networks where users receive suggestions based on their friends’ activities. We propose an information-theoretic approach to measure the differential update of the anonymity risk of time-varying user profiles. This expresses how privacy is affected when new content is posted and how much third-party services get to know about the users when a new activity is shared. We use actual Facebook data to show how our model can be applied to a real-world scenario.

Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

2010-01-01

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

Risk-communication capability for public health emergencies varies by community diversity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viswanath Kasisomayajula

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Public health emergencies heighten several challenges in risk-communication: providing trustworthy sources of information, reaching marginalized populations, and minimizing fear and public confusion. In emergencies, however, information may not diffuse equally among all social groups, and gaps in knowledge may increase. Such knowledge gaps vary by social structure and the size, socioeconomic status, and diversity of the population. This study explores the relationship between risk-communication capabilities, as perceived by public officials participating in emergency tabletop exercises, and community size and diversity. Findings For each of the three communication functions tested, risk-communication capabilities are perceived to be greater in communities with fewer then 10% of the population speaking a language other than English at home, decreasing as the percentage grows to 20% (ANOVA P ≤ 0.02. With respect to community size, however, we found an N-shaped relationship between perceived risk communication capabilities and population size. Capabilities are perceived highest in the largest communities and lowest in the smallest, but lower in communities with 20,000–49,999 inhabitants compared to those with 2,500–19,999. Conclusion The results of this study suggest the need to factor population diversity into risk communication plans and the need for improved state or regional risk-communication capabilities, especially for communities with limited local capacity.

Racial, ethnic, and gender variations in cancer risk: considerations for future epidemiologic research.

OpenAIRE

Zahm, S H; Fraumeni, J F

1995-01-01

There is no question that the risk of many cancers varies substantially by race, ethnic group, and gender. Although important clues to cancer etiology may come from investigating the differences in risk across subgroups of the population, epidemiologic research has often focused on white men. More descriptive and analytic studies are needed to identify and explain variations in risk among population subgroups. Especially important are studies to clarify the role of differential exposures, sus...

Varying constants, black holes, and quantum gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlip, S.

2003-01-01

Tentative observations and theoretical considerations have recently led to renewed interest in models of fundamental physics in which certain 'constants' vary in time. Assuming fixed black hole mass and the standard form of the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy, Davies, Davis and Lineweaver have argued that the laws of black hole thermodynamics disfavor models in which the fundamental electric charge e changes. I show that with these assumptions, similar considerations severely constrain 'varying speed of light' models, unless we are prepared to abandon cherished assumptions about quantum gravity. Relaxation of these assumptions permits sensible theories of quantum gravity with ''varying constants,'' but also eliminates the thermodynamic constraints, though the black hole mass spectrum may still provide some restrictions on the range of allowable models

Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moosa, I.A.; Al-Loughani, N.E.

1994-01-01

This paper presents some empirical evidence on market efficiency and unbiasedness in the crude oil futures market and some related issues. On the basis of monthly observations on spot and futures prices of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, several tests are carried out on the relevant hypotheses. The evidence suggests that futures prices are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasters of spot prices. Furthermore, a GARCH-M(1,1) model reveals the existence of a time varying risk premium. (author)

Applications, dosimetry and biological interactions of static and time-varying magnetic fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tenforde, T.S.

1988-08-01

The primary topics of this presentation include: (1) the applications of magnetic fields in research, industry, and medical technologies; (2) mechanisms of interaction of static and time-varying magnetic fields with living systems; (3) human health effects of exposure to static and time-varying magnetic fields in occupational, medical, and residential settings; and (4) recent advances in the dosimetry of extremely-low-frequency electromagnetic fields. The discussion of these topics is centered about two issues of considerable contemporary interest: (1) potential health effects of the fields used in magnetic resonance imaging and in vivo spectroscopy, and (2) the controversial issue of whether exposure to extremely-low-frequency (ELF) electromagnetic fields in the home and workplace leads to an elevated risk of cancer. 11 refs

Risk assessment considerations for plant protection products and terrestrial life-stages of amphibians.

Science.gov (United States)

Weltje, Lennart; Ufer, Andreas; Hamer, Mick; Sowig, Peter; Demmig, Sandra; Dechet, Friedrich

2018-04-28

Some amphibians occur in agricultural landscapes during certain periods of their life cycle and consequently might be exposed to plant protection products (PPPs). While the sensitivity of aquatic life-stages is considered to be covered by the standard assessment for aquatic organisms (especially fish), the situation is less clear for terrestrial amphibian life-stages. In this paper, considerations are presented on how a risk assessment for PPPs and terrestrial life-stages of amphibians could be conducted. It discusses available information concerning the toxicity of PPPs to terrestrial amphibians, and their potential exposure to PPPs in consideration of aspects of amphibian biology. The emphasis is on avoiding additional vertebrate testing as much as possible by using exposure-driven approaches and by making use of existing vertebrate toxicity data, where appropriate. Options for toxicity testing and risk assessment are presented in a flowchart as a tiered approach, progressing from a non-testing approach, to simple worst-case laboratory testing, to extended laboratory testing, to semi-field enclosure tests and ultimately to full-scale field testing and monitoring. Suggestions are made for triggers to progress to higher tiers. Also, mitigation options to reduce the potential for exposure of terrestrial life-stages of amphibians to PPPs, if a risk were identified, are discussed. Finally, remaining uncertainties and research needs are considered by proposing a way forward (road map) for generating additional information to inform terrestrial amphibian risk assessment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reduced risk of breast cancer associated with recreational physical activity varies by HER2 status

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Huiyan; Xu, Xinxin; Ursin, Giske; Simon, Michael S; Marchbanks, Polly A; Malone, Kathleen E; Lu, Yani; McDonald, Jill A; Folger, Suzanne G; Weiss, Linda K; Sullivan-Halley, Jane; Deapen, Dennis M; Press, Michael F; Bernstein, Leslie

2015-01-01

Convincing epidemiologic evidence indicates that physical activity is inversely associated with breast cancer risk. Whether this association varies by the tumor protein expression status of the estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), or p53 is unclear. We evaluated the effects of recreational physical activity on risk of invasive breast cancer classified by the four biomarkers, fitting multivariable unconditional logistic regression models to data from 1195 case and 2012 control participants in the population-based Women’s Contraceptive and Reproductive Experiences Study. Self-reported recreational physical activity at different life periods was measured as average annual metabolic equivalents of energy expenditure [MET]-hours per week. Our biomarker-specific analyses showed that lifetime recreational physical activity was negatively associated with the risks of ER-positive (ER+) and of HER2-negative (HER2−) subtypes (both P trend ≤ 0.04), but not with other subtypes (all P trend > 0.10). Analyses using combinations of biomarkers indicated that risk of invasive breast cancer varied only by HER2 status. Risk of HER2–breast cancer decreased with increasing number of MET-hours of recreational physical activity in each specific life period examined, although some trend tests were only marginally statistically significant (all P trend ≤ 0.06). The test for homogeneity of trends (HER2– vs. HER2+) reached statistical significance only when evaluating physical activity during the first 10 years after menarche (P homogeneity = 0.03). Our data suggest that physical activity reduces risk of invasive breast cancers that lack HER2 overexpression, increasing our understanding of the biological mechanisms by which physical activity acts

Polycystic Ovary Syndrome: Update on Treatment Options and Treatment Considerations for the Future

OpenAIRE

Kristen A. Farrell-Turner

2011-01-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome is an endocrine disorder characterized by insulin resistance, hyperandrogenemia, obesity, and inflammation, and is the most common cause of infertility. Women with PCOS are at higher risk than non-PCOS women for diabetes, cardiovascular disease, endometrial cancer, and psychiatric disorders. Because many abnormalities present in PCOS and symptoms vary considerably among PCOS women, treatment is guided by presentation and does not consist of simply one modality. Often...

LMFBR safety criteria: cost-benefit considerations under the constraint of an a priori risk criterion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartung, J.

1979-01-01

The role of cost-benefit considerations and a priori risk criteria as determinants of Core Disruptive Accident (CDA)-related safety criteria for large LMFBR's is explored with the aid of quantitative risk and probabilistic analysis methods. A methodology is described which allows a large number of design and siting alternatives to be traded off against each other with the goal of minimizing energy generation costs subject to the constraint of both an a priori risk criterion and a cost-benefit criterion. Application of this methodology to a specific LMFBR design project is described and the results are discussed. 5 refs

A Broad Consideration of Risk Factors in Pediatric Chronic Pain: Where to Go from Here?

Science.gov (United States)

McKillop, Hannah N; Banez, Gerard A

2016-11-30

Pediatric chronic pain is a significant problem associated with substantial functional impairment. A variety of risk factors have been found to be associated with chronic pain in youth. The greatest amount of evidence appears to support that temperament, anxiety, depression, subjective experience of stress, passive coping strategies, sleep problems, other somatic-related problems, and parent and/or family factors are important variables. However, a great deal of this research focuses on a single risk factor or on multiple risk factors in isolation. Much of the literature utilizes older diagnostic criteria and would benefit from replication, larger sample sizes, and comparison across pain disorders. Problems also exist with disagreement across definitions, resulting in inconsistency or unclear use of terms. Furthermore, recent consideration has suggested that outcome measures should include functional disability in addition to pain. A second generation of research is needed to shed light on the complex interactions that likely play a role in the transition from acute to chronic pain. Building on recent calls for changes in research in this area, we propose the next steps for this research, which involve consideration of both biopsychosocial and developmental contexts.

Effects of weight loss and long-term weight maintenance with diets varying in protein and glycemic index on cardiovascular risk factors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gögebakan, Özlem; Kohl, Angela; Osterhoff, Martin A.

2011-01-01

We sought to separately examine the effects of either weight loss or diets varying in protein content and glycemic index without further changes in body weight on cardiovascular risk factors within the Diet, Obesity, and Genes study (DiOGenes).......We sought to separately examine the effects of either weight loss or diets varying in protein content and glycemic index without further changes in body weight on cardiovascular risk factors within the Diet, Obesity, and Genes study (DiOGenes)....

Risk considerations for fusion energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazimi, M.S.

1983-01-01

An assessment is made of the public and occupational health effects implied in the utilization of fusion reactors as a source of electricity. Three conceptual designs for TOKAMAK fusion reactors are used in the assessment. It was assumed in this analysis that a fusion plant will release 10 Ci/day of tritium to the atmosphere. Risk from waste management and accidents are estimated relative to risk of LWR's energy cycle. Comparison of the fusion occupational and public risk from coal, LWR, solar thermal and solar-photovoltaic plants has been undertaken. It is concluded that, compared to other fuel cycles, fusion can potentially have a favorable position with respect to risk

No Decreased Risk of Gastrointestinal Cancers in Users of Metformin in The Netherlands; A Time-Varying Analysis of Metformin Exposure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Jong, Roy G; Burden, Andrea M; de Kort, Sander; van Herk-Sukel, Myrthe P; Vissers, Pauline A; Janssen, Paddy K; Haak, Harm R; Masclee, Ad A; de Vries, Frank; Janssen-Heijnen, Maryska L

2017-01-01

Previous studies on metformin use and gastrointestinal (GI) cancer risk have yielded inconclusive results on metformin's chemoprotective effects. We aimed to evaluate GI cancer risk in users of metformin in The Netherlands using a time-varying approach in a large population-based database. A cohort

Information Assurance for Enterprise Resource Planning Systems: Risk Considerations in Public Sector Organizations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naeem, S.; Islam, M.H.

2016-01-01

ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) systems reveal and pose non-typical risks due to its dependencies of interlinked business operations and process reengineering. Understanding of such type of risks is significant conducting and planning assurance involvement of the reliability of these complicated computer systems. Specially, in case of distributed environment where data reside at multiple sites and risks are of unique nature. Until now, there are brief pragmatic grounds on this public sector ERP issue. To analyze this subject, a partially organized consultation study was carried out with 15 skilled information systems auditors who are specialists in evaluating ERP systems risks. This methodology permitted to get more elaborated information about stakeholder's opinions and customer experiences. In addition, interviewees mentioned a numerous basic execution troubles (e.g. inadequately skilled human resource and insufficient process reengineering attempts) that lead into enhanced hazards. It was also reported by the interviewees that currently risks vary across vendors and across applications. Eventually, in offering assurance with ERP systems participants irresistibly stresses examining the process instead of system end product. (author)

Information Assurance for Enterprise Resource Planning Systems: Risk Considerations in Public Sector Organizations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SHAHZAD NAEEM

2016-10-01

Full Text Available ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning systems reveal and pose non-typical risks due to its dependencies of interlinked business operations and process reengineering. Understanding of such type of risks is significant conducting and planning assurance involvement of the reliability of these complicated computer systems. Specially, in case of distributed environment where data reside at multiple sites and risks are of unique nature. Until now, there are brief pragmatic grounds on this public sector ERP issue. To analyze this subject, a partially organized consultation study was carried out with 15 skilled information systems auditors who are specialists in evaluating ERP systems risks. This methodology permitted to get more elaborated information about stakeholder?s opinions and customer experiences. In addition, interviewees mentioned a numerous basic execution troubles (e.g. inadequately skilled human resource and insufficient process reengineering attempts that lead into enhanced hazards. It was also reported by the interviewees that currently risks vary across vendors and across applications. Eventually, in offering assurance with ERP systems participants irresistibly stresses examining the process instead of system end product.

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

Woman's Pre-Conception Evaluation: Genetic and Fetal Risk Considerations for Counselling and Informed Choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, R Douglas

2017-10-11

To inform reproductive and other health care providers about genetic and fetal risk information to consider during a woman/couples' pre-conception evaluation, including considerations for genetic risk assessment, genetic screening, or testing to allow for improved counselling and informed choice. This genetic information can be used for patient education, planning, and possible pre-conception and/or prenatal testing. This information may allow improved risk assessment for pre-conception counselling for individual patients and their families. PubMed or Medline and the Cochrane Database were searched in May 2017 using appropriate key words ("pre-conception," "genetic disease," "maternal," "family history," "genetic," "health risk," "genetic health surveillance," "prenatal screening," "prenatal diagnosis," "birth defects," and "teratogen"). Grey (unpublished) literature was identified through searching the websites of health technology assessment and health technology assessment-related agencies, clinical practice guideline collections, and national and international medical specialty societies. The benefits for the patient and her family include an increased understanding of relevant genetic risk pre-conception and in early pregnancy, and better pregnancy outcomes as a result of use of the information. The harm includes potential increased anxiety or psychological stress associated with the possibility of identifying genetic risks. The evidence obtained was peer-reviewed by the Genetics Committee of The Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada. Consideration for Care Statements For this review article, the Consideration for Care Statements use the GRADE strength and quality as it is comparable for the clinician and the patient/public user. [GRADE from the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care (www.canadiantaskforce.ca). For clinicians, Strong = The recommendation would apply to most individuals. Formal discussion aids are not likely to be

Parent-child coregulation of parasympathetic processes varies by social context and risk for psychopathology.

Science.gov (United States)

Lunkenheimer, Erika; Tiberio, Stacey S; Skoranski, Amanda M; Buss, Kristin A; Cole, Pamela M

2018-02-01

The parasympathetic nervous system supports social interaction and varies in relation to psychopathology. However, we know little about parasympathetic processes from a dyadic framework, nor in early childhood when parent-child social interactions become more complex and child psychopathology first emerges. We hypothesized that higher risk for psychopathology (maternal psychopathology symptoms and child problem behavior) would be related to weaker concordance of respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) between mothers and children (M = 3½ years old; N = 47) and that these relations could vary by social contextual demands, comparing unstructured free play, semistructured cleanup, and structured teaching tasks. Multilevel coupled autoregressive models of RSA during parent-child interactions showed overall dynamic, positive concordance in mother-child RSA over time, but this concordance was weaker during the more structured teaching task. In contrast, higher maternal psychological aggression and child externalizing and internalizing problems were associated with weaker dyadic RSA concordance, which was weakest during unstructured free play. Higher maternal depressive symptoms were related to disrupted individual mother and child RSA but not to RSA concordance. Thus, risk for psychopathology was generally related to weaker dyadic mother-child RSA concordance in contexts with less complex structure or demands (free play, cleanup), as compared to the structured teaching task that showed weaker RSA concordance for all dyads. Implications for the meaning and utility of the construct of parent-child physiological coregulation are discussed. © 2017 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Climate Change Impacts on Projections of Excess Mortality at 2030 using Spatially-Varying Ozone-Temperature Risk Surfaces

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G.

2017-01-01

We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995–2005) and near-future (2025–2035) time period while incorporating a nonlinear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate nonlinear, spatially-varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 ppb (moderate level) and 75 ppb (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 ppb and 1.94°F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone due to climate change result in an increase in ozone-mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 ppb increases by 7.7% (1.6%, 14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 ppb increases by 14.2% (1.6%, 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. PMID:27005744

HIV risks vary according to type of sex work in a cross-sectional survey from Nagaland, India.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Halloran, Anna B Z; Armstrong, Gregory; Medhi, Gajendra K; Sono, Collins Z; Mahanta, Jagadish; Kermode, Michelle

2014-11-12

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a significant problem among female sex workers (FSWs) in Nagaland, India. Place of solicitation and sex vary considerably in this context. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between categories of sex work and HIV risks. In 2009 a survey was undertaken among 417 FSWs in Dimapur, Nagaland using an interviewer-administered questionnaire and blood and urine samples. Using this data, we constructed a typology of sex work by combining usual place of solicitation and place of sex, and examined variations in demographics, sex work patterns, sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV prevalence across typology categories. Binary logistic regression analyses were done to examine the association between category of sex work and HIV, STIs, and condom use. By combining place of solicitation with place of sex, seven distinct categories of sex work emerged. The largest category were women who usually solicited in a public place and had sex in a rented room or lodge (31.7%, n = 132). One-tenth of participants were HIV positive (10.3%) and 35.4% had at least one STI (reactive syphilis serology, gonorrhoea or chlamydia). FSWs who both solicited and entertained in a rented room or lodge (OR = 13.3; 95% CI 2.2, 81.5) and those who solicited by phone and had sex in a rented room or lodge (OR = 6.3; 95% CI 1.0, 38.0) were more likely to be HIV positive compared to home-based FSWs. Women who both solicited and entertained in public (OR = 6.7; 95% CI 1.6, 28.0) and who solicited in public and entertained in a rented room or lodge (OR = 2.5; 95% CI 1.1, 6.0) were more likely to test positive for an STI compared to home-based FSWs. The results indicate that different categories of sex work are associated with different HIV and STI risk profiles. Local contextual understanding of the different types of sex work and the associated levels of risk assist NGOs to target their interventions more

Time-varying BRDFs.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Bo; Sunkavalli, Kalyan; Ramamoorthi, Ravi; Belhumeur, Peter N; Nayar, Shree K

2007-01-01

The properties of virtually all real-world materials change with time, causing their bidirectional reflectance distribution functions (BRDFs) to be time varying. However, none of the existing BRDF models and databases take time variation into consideration; they represent the appearance of a material at a single time instance. In this paper, we address the acquisition, analysis, modeling, and rendering of a wide range of time-varying BRDFs (TVBRDFs). We have developed an acquisition system that is capable of sampling a material's BRDF at multiple time instances, with each time sample acquired within 36 sec. We have used this acquisition system to measure the BRDFs of a wide range of time-varying phenomena, which include the drying of various types of paints (watercolor, spray, and oil), the drying of wet rough surfaces (cement, plaster, and fabrics), the accumulation of dusts (household and joint compound) on surfaces, and the melting of materials (chocolate). Analytic BRDF functions are fit to these measurements and the model parameters' variations with time are analyzed. Each category exhibits interesting and sometimes nonintuitive parameter trends. These parameter trends are then used to develop analytic TVBRDF models. The analytic TVBRDF models enable us to apply effects such as paint drying and dust accumulation to arbitrary surfaces and novel materials.

Time-varying causal network of the Korean financial system based on firm-specific risk premiums

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Jae Wook; Ko, Bonggyun; Cho, Poongjin; Chang, Woojin

2016-09-01

The aim of this paper is to investigate the Korean financial system based on time-varying causal network. We discover many stylized facts by utilizing the firm-specific risk premiums for measuring the causality direction from a firm to firm. At first, we discover that the interconnectedness of causal network is affected by the outbreak of financial events; the co-movement of firm-specific risk premium is strengthened after each positive event, and vice versa. Secondly, we find that the major sector of the Korean financial system is the Depositories, and the financial reform in June-2011 achieves its purpose by weakening the power of risk-spillovers of Broker-Dealers. Thirdly, we identify that the causal network is a small-world network with scale-free topology where the power-law exponents of out-Degree and negative event are more significant than those of in-Degree and positive event. Lastly, we discuss that the current aspects of causal network are closely related to the long-term future scenario of the KOSPI Composite index where the direction and stability are significantly affected by the power of risk-spillovers and the power-law exponents of degree distributions, respectively.

The Association Between Physical Activity and Cognitive Function With Considerations by Social Risk Status.

Science.gov (United States)

Frith, Emily; Loprinzi, Paul D

2017-11-01

We evaluated the association between physical activity and cognitive function among a national sample of the broader U.S. adult population, with consideration by social risk. Data from the 1999-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) were used to identify 2031 older adults, ages 60-85. Social risk was classified by measuring four NHANES variables, namely poverty level, education, minority status, and social living status, which were graded on a scale of 0-4, with higher scores corresponding with higher social risk. The Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST) was used to assess cognitive function. Physical activity was assessed via a validated self-report questionnaire. After adjustments, meeting physical activity guidelines (vs not) was associated with greater cognitive function (β = 3.0, 95% CI [1.5, 4.4], p cognitive function. Meeting physical activity guidelines (vs. not) was not associated with higher cognitive function among those with a social risk score of of 3 (β = -0.01; 95% CI [-6.3, 6.4], p = 0.99) or a social risk score of 4 (β = -6.8, 95% CI [-15.7, 2.0], p = 0.12). In this national sample of older adults, meeting physical activity guidelines, and degree of social risk were independently associated with cognitive function. However, physical activity was not associated with cognitive function among older adults with the highest degree of social risk.

A Time-Varied Probabilistic ON/OFF Switching Algorithm for Cellular Networks

KAUST Repository

Rached, Nadhir B.; Ghazzai, Hakim; Kadri, Abdullah; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2018-01-01

In this letter, we develop a time-varied probabilistic on/off switching planning method for cellular networks to reduce their energy consumption. It consists in a risk-aware optimization approach that takes into consideration the randomness of the user profile associated with each base station (BS). The proposed approach jointly determines (i) the instants of time at which the current active BS configuration must be updated due to an increase or decrease of the network traffic load, and (ii) the set of minimum BSs to be activated to serve the networks’ subscribers. Probabilistic metrics modeling the traffic profile variation are developed to trigger this dynamic on/off switching operation. Selected simulation results are then performed to validate the proposed algorithm for different system parameters.

A Time-Varied Probabilistic ON/OFF Switching Algorithm for Cellular Networks

KAUST Repository

Rached, Nadhir B.

2018-01-11

In this letter, we develop a time-varied probabilistic on/off switching planning method for cellular networks to reduce their energy consumption. It consists in a risk-aware optimization approach that takes into consideration the randomness of the user profile associated with each base station (BS). The proposed approach jointly determines (i) the instants of time at which the current active BS configuration must be updated due to an increase or decrease of the network traffic load, and (ii) the set of minimum BSs to be activated to serve the networks’ subscribers. Probabilistic metrics modeling the traffic profile variation are developed to trigger this dynamic on/off switching operation. Selected simulation results are then performed to validate the proposed algorithm for different system parameters.

Workplace Violence: Practical Considerations for Mental Health Professionals in Consultation, Assessment, and Management of Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Saragoza, Philip; White, Stephen G

2016-12-01

Workplace predatory violence has been the focus of increased study over the past 30 years, leading to a more sophisticated understanding of the factors that contribute to it, and important considerations for its assessment and management. Risk assessment professionals involved in workplace violence consultations should be mindful of issues specific to the workplace context and the principles of threat assessment to provide a more precise opinion of risk, to inform and enhance critical decisions regarding the employment status of the individual of concern, security measures, possible treatment options, and other management responses, while being mindful of the employee's certain rights. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Association Between Physical Activity and Cognitive Function With Considerations by Social Risk Status

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily Frith

2017-11-01

Full Text Available We evaluated the association between physical activity and cognitive function among a national sample of the broader U.S. adult population, with consideration by social risk. Data from the 1999-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES were used to identify 2031 older adults, ages 60-85. Social risk was classified by measuring four NHANES variables, namely poverty level, education, minority status, and social living status, which were graded on a scale of 0-4, with higher scores corresponding with higher social risk. The Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST was used to assess cognitive function. Physical activity was assessed via a validated self-report questionnaire. After adjustments, meeting physical activity guidelines (vs not was associated with greater cognitive function (β = 3.0, 95% CI [1.5, 4.4], p < 0.001. In this same model, social risk status was also independently associated with cognitive function. Meeting physical activity guidelines (vs. not was not associated with higher cognitive function among those with a social risk score of of 3 (β = -0.01; 95% CI [-6.3, 6.4], p = 0.99 or a social risk score of 4 (β = -6.8, 95% CI [-15.7, 2.0], p = 0.12. In this national sample of older adults, meeting physical activity guidelines, and degree of social risk were independently associated with cognitive function. However, physical activity was not associated with cognitive function among older adults with the highest degree of social risk.

Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature risk surfaces.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G

2017-01-01

We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1.6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.6 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels.

Costs of fear: Behavioral and life-history responses to risk and their demographic consequences vary across species

Science.gov (United States)

LaManna, Joseph A.; Martin, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

Behavioural responses to reduce predation risk might cause demographic ‘costs of fear’. Costs differ among species, but a conceptual framework to understand this variation is lacking. We use a life-history framework to tie together diverse traits and life stages to better understand interspecific variation in responses and costs. We used natural and experimental variation in predation risk to test phenotypic responses and associated demographic costs for 10 songbird species. Responses such as increased parental attentiveness yielded reduced development time and created benefits such as reduced predation probability. Yet, responses to increased risk also created demographic costs by reducing offspring production in the absence of direct predation. This cost of fear varied widely across species, but predictably with the probability of repeat breeding. Use of a life-history framework can aid our understanding of potential demographic costs from predation, both from responses to perceived risk and from direct predation mortality.

Optimal routing of hazardous substances in time-varying, stochastic transportation networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woods, A.L.; Miller-Hooks, E.; Mahmassani, H.S.

1998-07-01

This report is concerned with the selection of routes in a network along which to transport hazardous substances, taking into consideration several key factors pertaining to the cost of transport and the risk of population exposure in the event of an accident. Furthermore, the fact that travel time and the risk measures are not constant over time is explicitly recognized in the routing decisions. Existing approaches typically assume static conditions, possibly resulting in inefficient route selection and unnecessary risk exposure. The report described the application of recent advances in network analysis methodologies to the problem of routing hazardous substances. Several specific problem formulations are presented, reflecting different degrees of risk aversion on the part of the decision-maker, as well as different possible operational scenarios. All procedures explicitly consider travel times and travel costs (including risk measures) to be stochastic time-varying quantities. The procedures include both exact algorithms, which may require extensive computational effort in some situations, as well as more efficient heuristics that may not guarantee a Pareto-optimal solution. All procedures are systematically illustrated for an example application using the Texas highway network, for both normal and incident condition scenarios. The application illustrates the trade-offs between the information obtained in the solution and computational efficiency, and highlights the benefits of incorporating these procedures in a decision-support system for hazardous substance shipment routing decisions

The Role of Risk Aversion in Predicting Individual Behaviours

OpenAIRE

Guiso, Luigi; Paiella, Monica

2004-01-01

We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers’ decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways cons...

The Role of Risk Aversion in Predicting Individual Behaviour

OpenAIRE

Monica Paiella; Luigi Guiso

2004-01-01

We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers' decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways cons...

Mortality and morbidity risks vary with birth weight standard deviation score in growth restricted extremely preterm infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamakawa, Takuji; Itabashi, Kazuo; Kusuda, Satoshi

2016-01-01

To assess whether the mortality and morbidity risks vary with birth weight standard deviation score (BWSDS) in growth restricted extremely preterm infants. This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study using the database of the Neonatal Research Network of Japan and including 9149 infants born between 2003 and 2010 at <28 weeks gestation. According to the BWSDSs, the infants were classified as: <-2.0, -2.0 to -1.5, -1.5 to -1.0, -1.0 to -0.5, and ≥-0.5. Infants with BWSDS≥-0.5 were defined as non-growth restricted group. After adjusting for covariates, the risks of mortality and some morbidities were different among the BWSDS groups. Compared with non-growth restricted group, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for mortality [aOR, 1.69; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.35-2.12] and chronic lung disease (CLD) (aOR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.07-1.54) were higher among the infants with BWSDS -1.5 to <-1.0. The aOR for severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) (aOR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.09-1.71) and sepsis (aOR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.32-2.24) were higher among the infants with BWSDS -2.0 to <-1.5. The aOR for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) (aOR, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.64-3.55) was increased at a BWSDS<-2.0. Being growth restricted extremely preterm infants confer additional risks for mortality and morbidities such as CLD, ROP, sepsis and NEC, and these risks may vary with BWSDS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Not all risks are equal: the risk taking inventory for high-risk sports.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Tim; Barlow, Matt; Bandura, Comille; Hill, Miles; Kupciw, Dominika; Macgregor, Alexandra

2013-10-01

Although high-risk sport participants are typically considered a homogenous risk-taking population, attitudes to risk within the high-risk domain can vary considerably. As no validated measure allows researchers to assess risk taking within this domain, we validated the Risk Taking Inventory (RTI) for high-risk sport across four studies. The RTI comprises seven items across two factors: deliberate risk taking and precautionary behaviors. In Study 1 (n = 341), the inventory was refined and tested via a confirmatory factor analysis used in an exploratory fashion. The subsequent three studies confirmed the RTI's good model-data fit via three further separate confirmatory factor analyses. In Study 2 (n = 518) and in Study 3 (n = 290), concurrent validity was also confirmed via associations with other related traits (sensation seeking, behavioral activation, behavioral inhibition, impulsivity, self-esteem, extraversion, and conscientiousness). In Study 4 (n = 365), predictive validity was confirmed via associations with mean accidents and mean close calls in the high-risk domain. Finally, in Study 4, the self-report version of the inventory was significantly associated with an informant version of the inventory. The measure will allow researchers and practitioners to investigate risk taking as a variable that is conceptually distinct from participation in a high-risk sport.

Benefit/risk considerations with respect to OTC-descheduling of loperamide.

Science.gov (United States)

Fletcher, P; Steffen, R; DuPont, H

1995-05-01

The main criteria to be considered for releasing an antidiarrhoeal from a prescription to an OTC-drug are guaranteed quality control, established efficacy and safety and the evaluation of the drug experience on major markets. Besides the considerable benefits from a socio-economic point of view, the risk for potential inappropriate use of loperamide (CAS 53179-11-6) as self-medication can be minimized by its use being avoided in children of 5 years of age or less (e.g. by making available a solid formulation only), by limiting the treatment duration to 48 h, and by contraindicating the use of the drug in cases of fever (> 38 degrees C) and/or blood in the stools. On the basis of a broad review loperamide can be considered to be efficacious in acute non-specific, acute functional and traveller's diarrhoea. The agent has a good safety profile if the mentioned restrictions are born in mind. Loperamide thus satisfies the OTC criteria.

Risk is still relevant: Time-varying associations between perceived risk and marijuana use among US 12th grade students from 1991 to 2016.

Science.gov (United States)

Terry-McElrath, Yvonne M; O'Malley, Patrick M; Patrick, Megan E; Miech, Richard A

2017-11-01

Perceived risk of harm has long been a key preventive factor for adolescent marijuana use. However, in recent years, perceived risk has decreased markedly and marijuana use has increased only slightly, leading to new questions about their association. This study investigates the magnitude and stability of the US adolescent marijuana risk/use association from 1991 to 2016, overall and by gender and race/ethnicity. Self-reported data on past 12-month marijuana use, perceived risk of regular marijuana use, gender, and race/ethnicity were obtained from 275,768 US 12th grade students participating in the nationally representative Monitoring the Future study. Time-varying effect modeling (TVEM) was used to examine the marijuana risk/use association over time. Both before and after controlling for gender and race/ethnicity, perceived risk was a strong protective factor against adolescent marijuana use. The magnitude of the great risk/use association strengthened for Hispanic students; remained generally stable over time for 12th graders overall, males, females, and White students; and weakened for Black students. The magnitude of the moderate risk/use association strengthened for 12th graders overall, males, females, White and Hispanic students, but did not continue to strengthen for Black students from 2005 onwards. In general, marijuana use prevalence decreased over time within all levels of perceived risk. Perceived risk remains a strong protective factor for adolescent marijuana use, and the protective association for moderate risk (vs. no/slight risk) is actually increasing over time. Results suggest that accurate and credible information on the risks associated with marijuana use should remain a key component of prevention efforts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Programmatic Considerations to Reduce the Risk of Adverse Renal Stone Events in Spaceflight

Science.gov (United States)

Antonsen, Erik; Pietrzyk, Robert

2017-01-01

Introduction: Microgravity exposure may alter the likelihood that astronauts will experience renal stones. The potential risk includes both acute and chronic health issues, with the potential for significant impact on mission objectives. Methods: To understand the role of the NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) research agenda in both preventing and addressing renal stones in spaceflight, current astronaut epidemiologic data and a summary of programmatic considerations are reviewed. Results: Although there has never been a symptomatic renal stone event in a U.S. crewmember during spaceflight, urine chemistry has been altered - likely due to induced changes in renal physiology as a result of exposure to microgravity. This may predispose astronauts to stone formation, leading the HRP to conduct and sponsor research to: 1) understand the risk of stone formation in space; 2) prevent stones from forming; and 3) address stones that may form by providing novel diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. Discussion: The development of a renal stone during spaceflight is a significant medical concern that requires the HRP to minimize this risk by providing the ability to prevent, diagnose, monitor and treat the condition during spaceflight. A discussion of the risk as NASA understands it is followed by an overview of the multiple mitigations currently under study, including novel ultrasound techniques for stone detection and manipulation, and how they may function as part of a larger exploration medical system.

Lifetime risks for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: multivariable risk stratification.

Science.gov (United States)

Vlak, Monique H M; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Greebe, Paut; Greving, Jacoba P; Algra, Ale

2013-06-01

The overall incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) in western populations is around 9 per 100 000 person-years, which confers to a lifetime risk of around half per cent. Risk factors for aSAH are usually expressed as relative risks and suggest that absolute risks vary considerably according to risk factor profiles, but such estimates are lacking. We aimed to estimate incidence and lifetime risks of aSAH according to risk factor profiles. We used data from 250 patients admitted with aSAH and 574 sex-matched and age-matched controls, who were randomly retrieved from general practitioners files. We determined independent prognostic factors with multivariable logistic regression analyses and assessed discriminatory performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Based on the prognostic model we predicted incidences and lifetime risks of aSAH for different risk factor profiles. The four strongest independent predictors for aSAH, namely current smoking (OR 6.0; 95% CI 4.1 to 8.6), a positive family history for aSAH (4.0; 95% CI 2.3 to 7.0), hypertension (2.4; 95% CI 1.5 to 3.8) and hypercholesterolaemia (0.2; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.4), were used in the final prediction model. This model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.76). Depending on sex, age and the four predictors, the incidence of aSAH ranged from 0.4/100 000 to 298/100 000 person-years and lifetime risk between 0.02% and 7.2%. The incidence and lifetime risk of aSAH in the general population varies widely according to risk factor profiles. Whether persons with high risks benefit from screening should be assessed in cost-effectiveness studies.

[Theological moral considerations of advance directives].

Science.gov (United States)

Virt, G

1997-01-01

The forms for advanced directives vary considerably in respect to content and wording. This article intends to develop ethical criteria for such texts, from the moraltheological point of view, also considering the social context.

THE ROLE OF RISK AVERSION IN PREDICTING INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR

OpenAIRE

Luigi Guiso; Monica Paiella

2005-01-01

We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers� decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways co...

Considerations on Integrating Risk and Quality Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria POPESCU

2011-03-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to highlight the links between risk management and quality management and to study the possibility of their integrated approach. The study reviews the evolution of risk approach within organizations and stresses the need to increase the effectiveness of this approach by incorporating risk management methodology in the quality management system. Starting from this idea, the authors present the current state of risk approach into quality management, basic rules of integrated quality-risk management and major difficulties which may arise in the implementation of integrated quality–risk systems.

A review of regulatory risk assessment with formaldehyde as an example.

Science.gov (United States)

Imbus, H R

1988-09-01

Quantitative risk assessment may vary by over a millionfold depending upon the model used. The EPA currently uses models which project the highest potential risk. Furthermore, there is no consideration of the probability that a chemical is a human carcinogen. Such an approach may result in unrealistically high risk at exposures far below current ambient levels. In the case of formaldehyde, three alternative approaches to risk assessment are examined. One uses the maximum likelihood estimate of the multistage model, another uses the no observable adverse effect level divided by a safety factor of 100, and the third uses a probability estimate that the substance is carcinogenic at typical ambient exposures multiplied by EPA's upper bound estimate. The probability estimate is made from considerations of metabolism and pharmacokinetics, toxicology, short-term tests, animal tests, and epidemiology.

Risk considerations related to lung modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masse, R.; Cross, F.T.

1989-01-01

Improved lung models provide a more accurate assessment of dose from inhalation exposures and, therefore, more accurate dose-response relationships for risk evaluation and exposure limitation. Epidemiological data for externally irradiated persons indicate that the numbers of excess respiratory tract carcinomas differ in the upper airways, bronchi, and distal lung. Neither their histogenesis and anatomical location nor their progenitor cells are known with sufficient accuracy for accurate assessment of the microdosimetry. The nuclei of sensitive cells generally can be assumed to be distributed at random in the epithelium, beneath the mucus and tips of the beating cilia and cells. In stratified epithelia, basal cells may be considered the only cells at risk. Upper-airway tumors have been observed in both therapeutically irradiated patients and in Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors. The current International Commission on Radiological Protection Lung-Model Task Group proposes that the upper airways and lung have a similar relative risk coefficient for cancer induction. The partition of the risk weighting factor, therefore, will be proportional to the spontaneous death rate from tumors, and 80% of the weighting factor for the respiratory tract should be attributed to the lung. For Weibel lung-model branching generations 0 to 16 and 17 to 23, the Task Group proposes an 80/20 partition of the risk, i.e., 64% and 16%, respectively, of the total risk. Regarding risk in animals, recent data in rats indicate a significantly lower effectiveness for lung-cancer induction at low doses from insoluble long-lived alpha-emitters than from Rn daughters. These findings are due, in part, to the fact that different regions of the lung are irradiated. Tumors in the lymph nodes are rare in people and animals exposed to radiation.44 references

Alternative Testing Strategies for Nanomaterials: State of the Science and Considerations for Risk Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Shatkin, J A; Ong, K J

2016-08-01

The rapid growth of the nanotechnology industry has warranted equal progress in the nanotoxicology and risk assessment fields. In vivo models have traditionally been used to determine human and environmental risk for chemicals; however, the use of these tests has limitations, and there are global appeals to develop reliable alternatives to animal testing. Many have investigated the use of alternative (nonanimal) testing methods and strategies have quickly developed and resulted in the generation of large toxicological data sets for numerous nanomaterials (NMs). Due to the novel physicochemical properties of NMs that are related to surface characteristics, the approach toward toxicity test development has distinct considerations from traditional chemicals, bringing new requirements for adapting these approaches for NMs. The methodical development of strategies that combine multiple alternative tests can be useful for predictive NM risk assessment and help screening-level decision making. This article provides an overview of the main developments in alternative methods and strategies for reducing uncertainty in NM risk assessment, including advantages and disadvantages of in vitro, ex vivo, and in silico methods, and examples of existing comprehensive strategies. In addition, knowledge gaps are identified toward improvements for experimental and strategy design, specifically highlighting the need to represent realistic exposure scenarios and to consider NM-specific concerns such as characterization, assay interferences, and standardization. Overall, this article aims to improve the reliability and utility of alternative testing methods and strategies for risk assessment of manufactured NMs. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Political risk in fair market value estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gruy, H.J.; Hartsock, J.H.

1996-01-01

Political risk arises from unstable governments, commercial establishments and infrastructure as well as labor unrest. All these factors vary from country to country and from time to time. Banks and insurance companies quantify these risks, but they are reluctant to divulge their opinions for fear of alienating possible customers that have been assigned a high risk. An investment in a fixed property such as an oil and gas lease, concession or other mineral interest is subject to political risk. No one will deny that money to be received several years in the future has a greater value today in a country with a stable government, stable tax regime, a sound economy and reliable labor force than in a Third World country where a revolution is brewing. Even in stable countries, the risk of tax law changes, exorbitant environmental production regulations and cleanup costs may vary. How do these factors affect fair market value and how are these calculations made? An important consideration discussed in this paper is the treatment of capital investments

Market Risk in Demutualised Self-Listed Stock Exchanges: An International Analysis of Selected Time-Varying Betas

OpenAIRE

Andrew Worthington; Helen Higgs

2005-01-01

This paper examines market risk in four demutualised and self-listed stock exchanges: the Australian Stock Exchange, the Deutsche Börse, the London Stock Exchange and the Singapore Stock Exchange. Daily company and MSCI index returns provide the respective asset and market portfolio data. A bivariate MA-GARCH model is used to estimate time-varying betas for each exchange from listing until 7 June 2005. While the results indicate significant beta volatility, unit root tests show the betas to b...

Time-varying value of electric energy efficiency

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mims, Natalie A.; Eckman, Tom; Goldman, Charles

2017-06-30

Electric energy efficiency resources save energy and may reduce peak demand. Historically, quantification of energy efficiency benefits has largely focused on the economic value of energy savings during the first year and lifetime of the installed measures. Due in part to the lack of publicly available research on end-use load shapes (i.e., the hourly or seasonal timing of electricity savings) and energy savings shapes, consideration of the impact of energy efficiency on peak demand reduction (i.e., capacity savings) has been more limited. End-use load research and the hourly valuation of efficiency savings are used for a variety of electricity planning functions, including load forecasting, demand-side management and evaluation, capacity and demand response planning, long-term resource planning, renewable energy integration, assessing potential grid modernization investments, establishing rates and pricing, and customer service. This study reviews existing literature on the time-varying value of energy efficiency savings, provides examples in four geographically diverse locations of how consideration of the time-varying value of efficiency savings impacts the calculation of power system benefits, and identifies future research needs to enhance the consideration of the time-varying value of energy efficiency in cost-effectiveness screening analysis. Findings from this study include: -The time-varying value of individual energy efficiency measures varies across the locations studied because of the physical and operational characteristics of the individual utility system (e.g., summer or winter peaking, load factor, reserve margin) as well as the time periods during which savings from measures occur. -Across the four locations studied, some of the largest capacity benefits from energy efficiency are derived from the deferral of transmission and distribution system infrastructure upgrades. However, the deferred cost of such upgrades also exhibited the greatest range

Prehypertension: risk stratification and management considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Egan, Brent M; Julius, Stevo

2008-10-01

Approximately 37% of US adults are prehypertensive; about 31 million have blood pressures in the range of 130-139/85-89 mm Hg. These stage 2 prehypertensives have threefold greater risk for developing hypertension and twofold higher risk for cardiovascular events than normotensives. Lifestyle changes only are recommended for most prehypertensives, but evidence for community-wide effectiveness is limited. Projected numbers needed to treat to prevent a cardiovascular event are similar for stage 2 prehypertension and stage 1 hypertension when both groups are matched for concomitant risk factors. However, no clinical trials document that pharmacotherapy reduces cardiovascular events in stage 2 prehypertension. The Trial of Preventing Hypertension demonstrated that angiotensin receptor blockade safely lowers blood pressure and prevents or delays progression to hypertension in stage 2 prehypertensives. We believe it is reasonable for clinicians to identify stage 2 prehypertensives at high absolute risk for progression to hypertension and cardiovascular events, and to treat them with a renin-angiotensin system blocker when lifestyle changes alone are ineffective.

Technical and governance considerations for advanced metering infrastructure/smart meters: Technology, security, uncertainty, costs, benefits, and risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McHenry, Mark P.

2013-01-01

The fundamental role of policymakers when considering Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), or ‘smart meters for energy and water infrastructure is to investigate a broad range of complex interrelated issues. These include alternative technical and non-technical options and deployment needs, the cost and benefits of the infrastructure (risks and mitigation measures), and the impact of a number of stakeholders: consumers, distributors, retailers, competitive market operators, competing technology companies, etc. The scale and number of potential variables in the AMI space is an almost unprecedented challenge to policymakers, with the anticipation of new ancillary products and services, associated market contestability, related regulatory and policy amendments, and the adequacy of consumer protection, education, and safety considerations requiring utmost due-diligence. Embarking on AMI investment entails significant technical, implementation, and strategic risk for governments and administering bodies, and an active effort is required to ensure AMI governance and planning maximises the potential benefits, and minimise uncertainties, costs, and risks to stakeholders. This work seeks to clarify AMI fundamentals and discusses the technical and related governance considerations from a dispassionate perspective, yet acknowledges many stakeholders tend to dichotomise debate, and obfuscate both advantages and benefits, and the converse. - Highlights: • AMI presents an almost unprecedented technical and governance policy challenge. • AMI enables vertical integration of electricity, gas, water, IT, and telco entities • AMI investments involve major technical, implementation, and strategic decisions. • Adequacy of consumer education, safety, privacy, and protection is paramount. • Policy must maximise AMI benefits and minimise uncertainties, costs, and risks

An exploration of spatial risk assessment for soil protection: estimating risk and establishing priority areas for soil protection.

Science.gov (United States)

Kibblewhite, M G; Bellamy, P H; Brewer, T R; Graves, A R; Dawson, C A; Rickson, R J; Truckell, I; Stuart, J

2014-03-01

Methods for the spatial estimation of risk of harm to soil by erosion by water and wind and by soil organic matter decline are explored. Rates of harm are estimated for combinations of soil type and land cover (as a proxy for hazard frequency) and used to estimate risk of soil erosion and loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) for 1 km(2)pixels. Scenarios are proposed for defining the acceptability of risk of harm to soil: the most precautionary one corresponds to no net harm after natural regeneration of soil (i.e. a 1 in 20 chance of exceeding an erosion rate of soils and a carbon stock decline of 0 tha(-1)y(-1) for organic soils). Areas at higher and lower than possible acceptable risk are mapped. The veracity of boundaries is compromised if areas of unacceptable risk are mapped to administrative boundaries. Errors in monitoring change in risk of harm to soil and inadequate information on risk reduction measures' efficacy, at landscape scales, make it impossible to use or monitor quantitative targets for risk reduction adequately. The consequences for priority area definition of expressing varying acceptable risk of harm to soil as a varying probability of exceeding a fixed level of harm, or, a varying level of harm being exceeded with a fixed probability, are discussed. Soil data and predictive models for rates of harm to soil would need considerable development and validation to implement a priority area approach robustly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CONSIDERATIONS IN RISK COMMUNICATION: A DIGEST OF RISK COMMUNICATION AS A RISK MANAGEMENT TOOL

Science.gov (United States)

Risk communication is the process of informing people about hazards. Like all communication, communicating risk is a two-way exchange in which you inform the target community about possible hazards, but also gather information about those affected by the risk. The purpose of risk...

Measuring the coupled risks: A copula-based CVaR model

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xubiao; Gong, Pu

2009-01-01

Integrated risk management for financial institutions requires an approach for aggregating risk types (such as market and credit) whose distributional shapes vary considerably. The financial institutions often ignore risks' coupling influence so as to underestimate the financial risks. We constructed a copula-based Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) model for market and credit risks. This technique allows us to incorporate realistic marginal distributions that capture essential empirical features of these risks, such as skewness and fat-tails while allowing for a rich dependence structure. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to implement the model. Our results indicate that the coupled risks for the listed company's stock maybe are undervalued if credit risk is ignored, especially for the listed company with bad credit quality.

Growth-Enhanced Transgenic Coho Salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch Strains Have Varied Success in Simulated Streams: Implications for Risk Assessment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosalind A Leggatt

Full Text Available Growth hormone (GH transgenic fish have accelerated growth and could improve production efficiency in aquaculture. However, concern exists regarding potential environmental risks of GH transgenic fish should they escape rearing facilities. While environmental effects have been examined in some GH transgenic models, there is a lack of information on whether effects differ among different constructs or strains of transgenic fish. We compared growth and survival of wild-type coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch fry, a fast-growing GH transgenic strain containing a metallothionein promoter (TMT, and three lines/strains containing a reportedly weaker histone-3 promoter (TH3 in hatchery conditions and semi-natural stream tanks with varying levels of natural food and predators. Rank order of genotype size and survival differed with varying environmental conditions, both within and among experiments. Despite accelerated growth in hatchery conditions, TMT fry gained little or no growth enhancement in stream conditions, had enhanced survival when food was limiting, and inconsistent survival under other conditions. Rank growth was inconsistent in TH3 strains, with one strain having highest, and two strains having the lowest growth in stream conditions, although all TH3 strains had consistently poor survival. These studies demonstrate the importance of determining risk estimates for each unique transgenic model independent of other models.

CONSIDERATIONS REGARDING THE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES OF BANK RISKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NICOLETA GEORGETA PANAIT

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The study summarizes what it means banking risks, the main risk management strategies. The complexity of the business environment, liberalization and internationalization of financial flows, brings rapid innovation, diversified financial markets, new opportunities but multiplied risks. Banks establish the types of risks they are prepared to take and the threshold at which risk is considered significant. The process of determining the risks that are taken includes the nature, the scale and the complexity of banks.

Environmental and societal influences acting on cardiovascular risk factors and disease at a population level: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, Clara Kayei; Lock, Karen; Teo, Koon; Subramanian, S V; McKee, Martin; Yusuf, Salim

2009-12-01

It has long been known that cardiovascular disease (CVD) rates vary considerably among populations, across space and through time. It is now apparent that most of the attributable risk for myocardial infarction 'within' populations from across the world can be ascribed to the varying levels of a limited number of risk factors among individuals in a population. Individual risk factors (e.g. blood pressure) can be modified with resulting health gains. Yet, the persistence of large international variations in cardiovascular risk factors and resulting CVD incidence and mortality indicates that there are additional factors that apply to 'populations' that are important to understand as part of a comprehensive approach to CVD control. This article reviews the evidence on why certain populations are more at risk than others.

Age and other perioperative risk factors for postoperative systemic inflammatory response syndrome after cardiac surgery

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dieleman, J. M.; Peelen, L. M.; Coulson, T. G.; Tran, L.; Reid, C. M.; Smith, Jennifer A.; Myles, P. S.; Pilcher, C.D.

2017-01-01

Background The inflammatory response to surgery varies considerably between individual patients. Age might be a substantial factor in this variability. Our objective was to examine the association of patient age and other potential risk factors with the occurrence of a postoperative systemic

Does Metformin Reduce Cancer Risks? Methodologic Considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Golozar, Asieh; Liu, Shuiqing; Lin, Joeseph A; Peairs, Kimberly; Yeh, Hsin-Chieh

2016-01-01

The substantial burden of cancer and diabetes and the association between the two conditions has been a motivation for researchers to look for targeted strategies that can simultaneously affect both diseases and reduce their overlapping burden. In the absence of randomized clinical trials, researchers have taken advantage of the availability and richness of administrative databases and electronic medical records to investigate the effects of drugs on cancer risk among diabetic individuals. The majority of these studies suggest that metformin could potentially reduce cancer risk. However, the validity of this purported reduction in cancer risk is limited by several methodological flaws either in the study design or in the analysis. Whether metformin use decreases cancer risk relies heavily on the availability of valid data sources with complete information on confounders, accurate assessment of drug use, appropriate study design, and robust analytical techniques. The majority of the observational studies assessing the association between metformin and cancer risk suffer from methodological shortcomings and efforts to address these issues have been incomplete. Future investigations on the association between metformin and cancer risk should clearly address the methodological issues due to confounding by indication, prevalent user bias, and time-related biases. Although the proposed strategies do not guarantee a bias-free estimate for the association between metformin and cancer, they will reduce synthesis of and reporting of erroneous results.

Some considerations on robotics for environmental friendliness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.

1993-01-01

This paper presents a series of considerations regarding the use and potential of robotic devices for supporting humans in a variety of tasks, while maintaining, if not improving, environmental friendliness. One of the main considerations brought forward here relates to the type of human-support functions which the robots are, or will be, expected to perform, and from this, a clear differentiation appears between robots designed to replace humans in environments that were engineered in the past for best human functionality, and robots designed to take functions in the future, in environments which could be better engineered for large-scale human-robot synergy. Other considerations discussed involve the ''life-cycle'' cleanliness of robotic systems, including the materials needs for their construction, their operation, their disposal and, more importantly, their energy consumption which will impact the cycle of natural resources utilization. These considerations are discussed using a variety of possible robotic systems applications in contexts varied as manufacturing, energy recovery and production, emergency situations handling, traffic improvement, waste management, agriculture, and space exploration. In all these applications, the operation costs and complexity of the robots seem to vary in inverse proportion to the amount of engineering that is feasible to make the task environment more robot-friendly, but with no seemingly direct impact on the potential for environmental friendliness of the robots

Some considerations on robotics for environmental friendliness

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pin, F.G.

1993-12-01

This paper presents a series of considerations regarding the use and potential of robotic devices for supporting humans in a variety of tasks, while maintaining, if not improving, environmental friendliness. One of the main considerations brought forward here relates to the type of human-support functions which the robots are, or will be, expected to perform, and from this, a clear differentiation appears between robots designed to replace humans in environments that were engineered in the past for best human functionality, and robots designed to take functions in the future, in environments which could be better engineered for large-scale human-robot synergy. Other considerations discussed involve the ``life-cycle`` cleanliness of robotic systems, including the materials needs for their construction, their operation, their disposal and, more importantly, their energy consumption which will impact the cycle of natural resources utilization. These considerations are discussed using a variety of possible robotic systems applications in contexts varied as manufacturing, energy recovery and production, emergency situations handling, traffic improvement, waste management, agriculture, and space exploration. In all these applications, the operation costs and complexity of the robots seem to vary in inverse proportion to the amount of engineering that is feasible to make the task environment more robot-friendly, but with no seemingly direct impact on the potential for environmental friendliness of the robots.

Asymmetric Realized Volatility Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David E. Allen

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation measures are nearly Gaussian, this unpredictability brings considerably more uncertainty to the empirically relevant ex ante distribution of returns. Explicitly modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized volatility model, which incorporates the fact that realized volatility series are systematically more volatile in high volatility periods. Returns in this framework display time varying volatility, skewness and kurtosis. We provide a detailed account of the empirical advantages of the model using data on the S&P 500 index and eight other indexes and stocks.

Comparison of varying operating parameters on heavy metals ecological risk during anaerobic co-digestion of chicken manure and corn stover.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Yilong; Zhang, Liqiu; Feng, Li; Sun, Dezhi; Dang, Yan

2018-01-01

In this study, the potential ecological risk of heavy metals (Mn, Zn, Cu, Ni, As, Cd, Pb, Cr) accumulation from anaerobic co-digestion of chicken manure (CM) and corn stover (CS) was evaluated by comparing different initial substrate concentrations, digestion temperatures, and mixture ratios. Results showed that the highest volumetric methane yield of 20.3±1.4L/L reactor was achieved with a CS:CM ratio of 3:1 (on volatile solid basis) in mesophilic solid state anaerobic digestion (SS-AD). Although co-digestion increased the concentrations of all tested heavy metals and the direct toxicity of some heavy metals, the potential ecological risk index indicated that the digestates were all classified as low ecological risk. The biogasification and risk variation of heavy metals were affected by the operating parameters. These results are significant and should be taken into consideration when optimizing co-digestion of animal manure and crop residues during full-scale projects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal International Asset Allocation with Time-varying Risk

OpenAIRE

Flavin, Thomas; Wickens, M.R.

2006-01-01

This paper examines the optimal allocation each period of an internationally diversified portfolio from the different points of view of a UK and a US investor. We find that investor location affects optimal asset allocation. The presence of exchange rate risk causes the markets to appear not fully integrated and creates a preference for home assets. Domestic equity is the dominant asset in the optimal portfolio for both investors, but the US investor bears less risk than the UK...

CONSIDERATIONS ON RISK MANAGEMENT APPLIED TO FOREST FIRES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioan Valentin Marcel Posea

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Forest risk and management are ubiquitous in any socio-economic activity. Forestry, more than any other field, is at risk from fire. Consequently, it appears the necessity to implement a fire risk management that could resolve, at least partially, the specific problems. This study attempts to identify the specific stages and processes of forest fire risk management and their content. At the same time, I will try to highlight how a forest fire risk management process planning can be achieved and to present a way of achieving the Plan. I also deem necessary a forest fire risk monitoring and control system that I have built using the Deming cycle.

Marriage is a dependent risk factor for mortality of colon adenocarcinoma without a time-varying effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Minling; Li, Lixian; Yu, Wei; Chen, Jie; Xiong, Weibin; Chen, Shuang; Yu, Li

2017-03-21

It has been well recognized that the effects of many prognostic factors could change during long-term follow-up. Although marriage has been proven to be a significant prognostic factor for the survival of colon cancer, whether the effect of marriage is constant with time remain unknown. This study analyzed the impact of marital status on the mortality of colon cancer patients with an extended Cox model that allowed for time-varying effects. We identified 71,955 patients who underwent colectomy between 2004 and 2009 to treat colon adenocarcinoma from the Surveilance, Epidemiology and End Results Database. The multivariate extended Cox model was used to evaluate the effect of marital status on all-cause mortality, while the Fine-Gray competing risks model was used for colon cancer-specific mortality, with death from other causes as the competing risk. The unmarried patients carried a 1.37-fold increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with the married patients (95%CI: 1.33-1.40; pMarriage is a dependent prognosis factor for survival of surgically treated colon adenocarcinoma patients. Psychological interventions are suggested to improve receipt of treatment among unmarried patients, as their poor survival may be due to the inefficient treatment.

Hopelessness and Lack of Connectedness to Others as Risk Factors for Suicidal Behavior across the Lifespan: Implications for Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment

Science.gov (United States)

Daniel, Stephanie S.; Goldston, David B.

2012-01-01

The rates of suicide attempts and death by suicide vary considerably over the lifespan, highlighting the influence of different contextual, risk, and protective factors at different points in development (Daniel & Goldston, 2009). Hopelessness and lack of connectedness to others are two factors that have been associated with increased risk for…

Summary of PRA assessment of transient accident risks, human factors considerations, and PRA methods and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carnino, A.

1984-01-01

This chapter reviews the progress made in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) area to help in solving operational transient problems and to integrate human factors considerations, as discussed at the American Nuclear Society Topical Meeting on Anticipated and Abnormal Plant Transients in Light Water Reactors. Topics considered include core-melt frequency, external events (e.g., fires, floods), diagnostic errors, and operator aids. It is concluded that confidence in PRA results, predictions and uses for decisions in both the safety of the plants and their availability will improve

Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and Risk of Substance Use Disorder: Developmental Considerations, Potential Pathways, and Opportunities for Research

Science.gov (United States)

Molina, Brooke S.G.; Pelham, William E.

2014-01-01

Many opportunities to explain ADHD-related risk of substance use/disorder (SUD) remain available for study. We detail these opportunities by considering characteristics of children with ADHD and factors affecting their outcomes side-by-side with overlapping variables in the developmental literature on SUD etiology. Although serious conduct problems are a known contributor to ADHD-related risk of SUD, few studies have considered their emergence developmentally and in relation to other candidate mediators and moderators that could also explain risk and be intervention targets. Common ADHD-related impairments, such as school difficulties, are in need of research. Heterogeneous social impairments have the potential for predisposing, and buffering, influences. Research on neurocognitive domains should move beyond standard executive function batteries to measure deficits in the interface between cognitive control, reward, and motivation. Ultimately, maximizing prediction will depend, as it has in the SUD literature, on simultaneous consideration of multiple risk factors. PMID:24437435

Risk Management Considerations for Interoperable Acquisition

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Meyers, B. C

2006-01-01

.... The state of risk management practice -- the specification of standards and the methodologies to implement them -- is addressed and examined with respect to the needs of system-of-systems interoperability...

Global Stability of Polytopic Linear Time-Varying Dynamic Systems under Time-Varying Point Delays and Impulsive Controls

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. de la Sen

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the stability properties of a class of dynamic linear systems possessing several linear time-invariant parameterizations (or configurations which conform a linear time-varying polytopic dynamic system with a finite number of time-varying time-differentiable point delays. The parameterizations may be timevarying and with bounded discontinuities and they can be subject to mixed regular plus impulsive controls within a sequence of time instants of zero measure. The polytopic parameterization for the dynamics associated with each delay is specific, so that (q+1 polytopic parameterizations are considered for a system with q delays being also subject to delay-free dynamics. The considered general dynamic system includes, as particular cases, a wide class of switched linear systems whose individual parameterizations are timeinvariant which are governed by a switching rule. However, the dynamic system under consideration is viewed as much more general since it is time-varying with timevarying delays and the bounded discontinuous changes of active parameterizations are generated by impulsive controls in the dynamics and, at the same time, there is not a prescribed set of candidate potential parameterizations.

Effects of Varying Entry Points and Trendelenburg Positioning ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2018-04-04

Apr 4, 2018 ... ... made in superior and inferior entry points at supine position at 0° .... Trendelenburg degree, taking all risks into consideration. As a result of our .... patient's position influences the incidence of dysrhythmias during pulmonary.

Attitudes as Object-Evaluation Associations of Varying Strength

OpenAIRE

Fazio, Russell H.

2007-01-01

Historical developments regarding the attitude concept are reviewed, and set the stage for consideration of a theoretical perspective that views attitude, not as a hypothetical construct, but as evaluative knowledge. A model of attitudes as object-evaluation associations of varying strength is summarized, along with research supporting the model’s contention that at least some attitudes are represented in memory and activated automatically upon the individual’s encountering the attitude objec...

Rates and predictors of consideration for adjuvant radiotherapy among high-risk breast cancer patients: a cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Krotneva, Stanimira; Reidel, Kristen; Nassif, Mohammed; Trabulsi, Nora; Mayo, Nancy; Tamblyn, Robyn; Meguerditchian, Ari N

2013-07-01

Radiotherapy (RT) after breast conserving surgery (BCS) represents the standard for local control of breast cancer (BC). However, variations in practice persist. We aimed to characterize the rate of RT consideration (or referral) after BCS and identify predictors in Quebec, Canada, where universal health insurance is in place. A historical prospective cohort study using the provincial hospital discharge and medical services databases was conducted. All women with incident, non-metastatic BC (stages I-III) undergoing BCS (1998-2005) were identified. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for RT consideration were estimated with a generalized estimating equations regression model, adjusting for clustering of patients within physicians. Of the 27,483 women selected, 90 % were considered for RT and 84 % subsequently received it. Relative to women 50-69 years old, younger and older women were less likely to be considered: ORs of 0.82 (95 % CI 0.73-0.93) and 0.10 (0.09-0.12), respectively. Emergency room visits and hospitalizations unrelated to BC were associated with decreased odds of RT consideration: 0.85 (0.76-0.94) and 0.83 (0.71-0.97). Women with regional BC considered for chemotherapy were more likely to be considered for RT: 3.41 (2.83-4.11). RT consideration odds increased by 7 % (OR of 1.07, 95 % CI 1.03-1.10) for every ten additional BCSs performed by the surgeon in the prior year. Social isolation, comorbidities, and greater distance to a referral center lowered the odds. Demographic and clinical patient-related risk factors, health service use, gaps in other aspects of BC management, and surgeon's experience predicted RT consideration.

Neural initialization of audiovisual integration in prereaders at varying risk for developmental dyslexia.

Science.gov (United States)

I Karipidis, Iliana; Pleisch, Georgette; Röthlisberger, Martina; Hofstetter, Christoph; Dornbierer, Dario; Stämpfli, Philipp; Brem, Silvia

2017-02-01

Learning letter-speech sound correspondences is a major step in reading acquisition and is severely impaired in children with dyslexia. Up to now, it remains largely unknown how quickly neural networks adopt specific functions during audiovisual integration of linguistic information when prereading children learn letter-speech sound correspondences. Here, we simulated the process of learning letter-speech sound correspondences in 20 prereading children (6.13-7.17 years) at varying risk for dyslexia by training artificial letter-speech sound correspondences within a single experimental session. Subsequently, we acquired simultaneously event-related potentials (ERP) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans during implicit audiovisual presentation of trained and untrained pairs. Audiovisual integration of trained pairs correlated with individual learning rates in right superior temporal, left inferior temporal, and bilateral parietal areas and with phonological awareness in left temporal areas. In correspondence, a differential left-lateralized parietooccipitotemporal ERP at 400 ms for trained pairs correlated with learning achievement and familial risk. Finally, a late (650 ms) posterior negativity indicating audiovisual congruency of trained pairs was associated with increased fMRI activation in the left occipital cortex. Taken together, a short (audiovisual integration in neural systems that are responsible for processing linguistic information in proficient readers. To conclude, the ability to learn grapheme-phoneme correspondences, the familial history of reading disability, and phonological awareness of prereading children account for the degree of audiovisual integration in a distributed brain network. Such findings on emerging linguistic audiovisual integration could allow for distinguishing between children with typical and atypical reading development. Hum Brain Mapp 38:1038-1055, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals

Flexible time-varying filter banks

Science.gov (United States)

Tuncer, Temel E.; Nguyen, Truong Q.

1993-09-01

Linear phase maximally flat FIR Butterworth filter approximations are discussed and a new filter design method is introduced. This variable cutoff filter design method uses the cosine modulated versions of a prototype filter. The design procedure is simple and different variants of this procedure can be used to obtain close to optimum linear phase filters. Using this method, flexible time-varying filter banks with good reconstruction error are introduced. These types of oversampled filter banks have small magnitude error which can be easily controlled by the appropriate choice of modulation frequency. This error can be further decreased by magnitude equalization without increasing the computational complexity considerably. Two dimensional design examples are also given.

Part 8. Deployment considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dance, K.D.; Chang, Y.I.; Daly, T.A.

1980-01-01

This report addresses considerations of fast breeder reactor development and deployment from a national perspective. Nations vary greatly in their expertise and interest relative to nuclear power, and hence a single set of steps to be taken by a nation in decision-making on breeder development and deployment cannot be presented. The approach taken in this report is to present discussions on key factors influencing the breeder development and deployment decisions, especially in non-breeder nations, by drawing upon historical perspectives of the Light Water Reactor for comparison

Polycystic Ovary Syndrome: Update on Treatment Options and Treatment Considerations for the Future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristen A. Farrell-Turner

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Polycystic ovary syndrome is an endocrine disorder characterized by insulin resistance, hyperandrogenemia, obesity, and inflammation, and is the most common cause of infertility. Women with PCOS are at higher risk than non-PCOS women for diabetes, cardiovascular disease, endometrial cancer, and psychiatric disorders. Because many abnormalities present in PCOS and symptoms vary considerably among PCOS women, treatment is guided by presentation and does not consist of simply one modality. Often, however, one type of medication can ameliorate more than one abnormality in PCOS. This review summarizes current research on several treatment modalities for PCOS, including drugs that are fairly well-established as efficacious and other agents that may prove efficacious in the future, with particular emphasis on the benefits and barriers of lifestyle change.

Antipsychotic Use and Hospitalization Among Older Assisted Living Residents: Does Risk Vary by Frailty Status?

Science.gov (United States)

Stock, Kathryn J; Hogan, David B; Lapane, Kate; Amuah, Joseph E; Tyas, Suzanne L; Bronskill, Susan E; Morris, Andrew M; Bell, Chaim M; Jeffs, Lianne; Maxwell, Colleen J

2017-07-01

To examine associations between baseline frailty measures, antipsychotic use, and hospitalization over 1 year and whether hospitalization risk associated with antipsychotic use varies by frailty level. In this prospective cohort study of 1,066 residents (mean age: 85 years; 77% women) from the Alberta Continuing Care Epidemiological Studies, trained research nurses conducted comprehensive resident assessments at baseline (2006-2007) for sociodemographic characteristics, health conditions, frailty status, behavioral problems, and all medications consumed during the past 3 days. Two separate measures of frailty were assessed, the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) phenotype and an 86-item Frailty Index (FI). Time to first hospitalization during follow-up was determined via linkage with the Alberta Inpatient Discharge Abstract Database. Baseline frailty status (both measures), but not antipsychotic use, was significantly associated with hospitalization over 1 year. When stratified by frailty, FI-defined frail residents using antipsychotics showed a significantly increased risk for hospitalization (adjusted HR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.01-2.36) compared with frail nonusers. CHS-defined frail antipsychotic users versus frail nonusers also showed an elevated risk (adjusted HR: 1.67; 95% CI: 0.96-2.88). Nonfrail residents using antipsychotics were significantly less likely to be hospitalized compared with nonfrail nonusers whether defined by the FI (adjusted HR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.39-0.99) or CHS criteria (adjusted HR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.40-0.96). Frailty measures may be helpful in identifying those who are particularly vulnerable to adverse effects and those who may experience benefit with treatment. Copyright © 2017 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Capital Market Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing over the Long Run

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rangvid, Jesper; Santa-Clara, Pedro; Schmeling, Maik

integration. We also calculate the welfare costs of imperfect capital market integration and risk sharing and find that these costs vary a lot over time. Finally, we show that consumption risk sharing is higher during times of crises, i.e. at times when marginal utility is high and risk sharing is most......We empirically investigate time variation in capital market integration and consumption risk sharing using data for 16 countries from 1875 to 2012. We show that there has been considerable variation over time in the degrees of capital market integration and consumption risk sharing and that higher...... capital market integration forecasts more consumption risk sharing in the future. This finding is robust is to controlling for trade openness and exchange rate volatilities. Hence, financial integration seems to drive consumption risk sharing whereas we find no evidence that risk sharing forecasts market...

New Inference Procedures for Semiparametric Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Cox Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunbei Ma

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In biomedical research, one major objective is to identify risk factors and study their risk impacts, as this identification can help clinicians to both properly make a decision and increase efficiency of treatments and resource allocation. A two-step penalized-based procedure is proposed to select linear regression coefficients for linear components and to identify significant nonparametric varying-coefficient functions for semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear Cox models. It is shown that the penalized-based resulting estimators of the linear regression coefficients are asymptotically normal and have oracle properties, and the resulting estimators of the varying-coefficient functions have optimal convergence rates. A simulation study and an empirical example are presented for illustration.

Toxoplasmosis as a travel risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Sepúlveda-Arias, Juan C; Gómez-Marin, Jorge E; Bobić, Branko; Naranjo-Galvis, Carlos A; Djurković-Djaković, Olgica

2014-01-01

Toxoplasma gondii is a protozoan parasite with worldwide distribution that infects more than one third of the global population. Primary infection in immunocompetent individuals is usually asymptomatic; however, different organs can be affected in immunocompromised individuals leading to the development of encephalitis, myocarditis or pneumonitis. The prevalence of infection with Toxoplasma as well as its genetic structure varies geographically and for that reason travel may be considered as a risk factor to acquire the infection. As toxoplasmosis is a foodborne disease, health care providers should give health education on prevention measures to all prospective travelers in order to decrease the risk of infection in endemic areas. This review presents an overview of the infection with T. gondii with some considerations for travelers to and from endemic zones. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Considerations on risks associated with the production of energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamel, P.E.

1977-09-01

Fear of the unknown can cause the public to perceive more risk in the generation of power by nuclear means than by other methods. In fact, the situation may be quite the opposite. Decisions based on risk analysis must take into account not only the technical assessment of risk but also the attitude of the public towards different kinds of risk. (LL)

Testing for time-varying loadings in dynamic factor models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikkelsen, Jakob Guldbæk

Abstract: In this paper we develop a test for time-varying factor loadings in factor models. The test is simple to compute and is constructed from estimated factors and residuals using the principal components estimator. The hypothesis is tested by regressing the squared residuals on the squared...... there is evidence of time-varying loadings on the risk factors underlying portfolio returns for around 80% of the portfolios....

Considerations for the Estimation of the Risk of Environmental Contamination Due to Blow Out in Offshore Exploratory Drilling Projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.; Recreo, F.

2015-01-01

From the consideration of a contemporary society based on the need of a high-level complex technology with a high intrinsic level of uncertainty and its relationship with risk assessment, this analysis, conducted in late 2014, was developed from that that led the Secretary of State for the Environment to the Resolution of 29 May 2014, by which the Environmental Impact Statement of the Exploratory Drilling Project in the hydrocarbons research permits called ''Canarias 1-9// was set out and published in the Spanish Official State Gazette number 196 on 13rd August 2014. The aim of the present study is to analyze the suitability with which the worst case associated probability is identified and defined and its relation to the total risk estimate from a blow out. Its interest stems from the fact that all risk management methodologically rests on two pillars, i.e., on a sound risk analysis and evaluation. This determines the selection of management tools in relation to its level of complexity, the project phase and its potential impacts on the health, safety and environmental contamination dimensions.

Considerations on reduction of risk from anticipated transients without scram in a regulatory perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, S. H.; Oh, D. Y.; Kim, I. K.; Lee, S. H.

2002-01-01

ATWS (Anticipated Transients Without Scram) are anticipated operational occurrences accompanied by the failure of the reactor trip portion of the reactor trip system. ATWS accidents are an cause of concern because under certain postulated conditions they could lead to significant core damage including core melt and to the large release of radioactivity to the environment. In this study, considerations on reduction of risk from ATWS were discussed with examination of the technical background of 10CFR 50.62. Considering the recent trends of the extended core cycle and the power uprating, it is recognized that the moderator temperature coefficient can become less negative than to suppress the RCS overpressure followed by ATWS. Because the negative reactivity feedback is one inherent level of multiple defenses, the effect against the RCS overpressure needs to be assessed in detail

Cardiovascular risks and elevation of serum DHT vary by route of testosterone administration: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Borst, Stephen E; Shuster, Jonathan J; Zou, Baiming; Ye, Fan; Jia, Huanguang; Wokhlu, Anita; Yarrow, Joshua F

2014-11-27

Potential cardiovascular (CV) risks of testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) are currently a topic of intense interest. However, no studies have addressed CV risk as a function of the route of administration of TRT. Two meta-analyses were conducted, one of CV adverse events (AEs) in 35 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of TRT lasting 12 weeks or more, and one of 32 studies reporting the effect of TRT on serum testosterone and dihydrotestosterone (DHT). CV risks of TRT: Of 2,313 studies identified, 35 were eligible and included 3,703 mostly older men who experienced 218 CV-related AEs. No significant risk for CV AEs was present when all TRT administration routes were grouped (relative risk (RR) = 1.28, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.76 to 2.13, P = 0.34). When analyzed separately, oral TRT produced significant CV risk (RR = 2.20, 95% CI: 1.45 to 3.55, P = 0.015), while neither intramuscular (RR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.28 to 1.56, P = 0.32) nor transdermal (gel or patch) TRT (RR = 1.27, 95% CI: 0.62 to 2.62, P = 0.48) significantly altered CV risk. Serum testosterone/DHT following TRT: Of 419 studies identified, 32 were eligible which included 1,152 men receiving TRT. No significant difference in the elevation of serum testosterone was present between intramuscular or transdermal TRT. However, transdermal TRT elevated serum DHT (5.46-fold, 95% CI: 4.51 to 6.60) to a greater magnitude than intramuscular TRT (2.20-fold, 95% CI: 1.74 to 2.77). Oral TRT produces significant CV risk. While no significant effects on CV risk were observed with either injected or transdermal TRT, the point estimates suggest that further research is needed to establish whether administration by these routes is protective or detrimental, respectively. Differences in the degree to which serum DHT is elevated may underlie the varying CV risk by TRT administration route, as elevated serum dihydrotestosterone has been shown to be associated with CV risk in observational studies.

Statistical considerations in the development of injury risk functions.

Science.gov (United States)

McMurry, Timothy L; Poplin, Gerald S

2015-01-01

We address 4 frequently misunderstood and important statistical ideas in the construction of injury risk functions. These include the similarities of survival analysis and logistic regression, the correct scale on which to construct pointwise confidence intervals for injury risk, the ability to discern which form of injury risk function is optimal, and the handling of repeated tests on the same subject. The statistical models are explored through simulation and examination of the underlying mathematics. We provide recommendations for the statistically valid construction and correct interpretation of single-predictor injury risk functions. This article aims to provide useful and understandable statistical guidance to improve the practice in constructing injury risk functions.

Computing Conditional VaR using Time-varying CopulasComputing Conditional VaR using Time-varying Copulas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes

2005-12-01

Full Text Available It is now widespread the use of Value-at-Risk (VaR as a canonical measure at risk. Most accurate VaR measures make use of some volatility model such as GARCH-type models. However, the pattern of volatility dynamic of a portfolio follows from the (univariate behavior of the risk assets, as well as from the type and strength of the associations among them. Moreover, the dependence structure among the components may change conditionally t past observations. Some papers have attempted to model this characteristic by assuming a multivariate GARCH model, or by considering the conditional correlation coefficient, or by incorporating some possibility for switches in regimes. In this paper we address this problem using time-varying copulas. Our modeling strategy allows for the margins to follow some FIGARCH type model while the copula dependence structure changes over time.

VariVis: a visualisation toolkit for variation databases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smith Timothy D

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background With the completion of the Human Genome Project and recent advancements in mutation detection technologies, the volume of data available on genetic variations has risen considerably. These data are stored in online variation databases and provide important clues to the cause of diseases and potential side effects or resistance to drugs. However, the data presentation techniques employed by most of these databases make them difficult to use and understand. Results Here we present a visualisation toolkit that can be employed by online variation databases to generate graphical models of gene sequence with corresponding variations and their consequences. The VariVis software package can run on any web server capable of executing Perl CGI scripts and can interface with numerous Database Management Systems and "flat-file" data files. VariVis produces two easily understandable graphical depictions of any gene sequence and matches these with variant data. While developed with the goal of improving the utility of human variation databases, the VariVis package can be used in any variation database to enhance utilisation of, and access to, critical information.

Risk for maternal harsh parenting in high-risk families from birth to age three: does ethnicity matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Christina Gamache; Fisher, Philip A; Kim, Hyoun K

2012-02-01

Child maltreatment prevention programs typically identify at-risk families by screening for risk with limited consideration of how risk might vary by ethnicity. In this study, longitudinal data from mothers who participated in a randomized clinical trial of a home-visitation, child maltreatment prevention program (N = 262) were examined to determine whether risk for harsh parenting differed among mothers who identified themselves as Spanish-speaking Latinas (n = 64), English-speaking Latinas (n = 102), or non-Latina Caucasians (n = 96). The majority of the participants were first-time mothers (58.4%), and the average age of all participants was 23.55 years (SD = 6.04). At the time of their infants' births, the Spanish-speaking Latina mothers demonstrated higher SES risk, whereas the English-speaking Latina and non-Latina Caucasian mothers demonstrated higher psychosocial risk. Three years later, the English-speaking Latina and non-Latina Caucasian mothers reported harsher parenting behaviors than the Spanish-speaking Latina mothers. The need for prevention programs to consider how risk and protective factors differ by ethnic group membership when identifying at-risk mothers is discussed.

Vaccination rates among the general adult population and high-risk groups in the United States.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathy Annunziata

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In order to adequately assess the effectiveness of vaccination in helping to control vaccine-preventable infectious disease, it is important to identify the adherence and uptake of risk-based recommendations. METHODS: The current project includes data from five consecutive datasets of the National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS: 2007 through 2011. The NHWS is an annual, Internet-based health questionnaire, administered to a nationwide sample of adults (aged 18 or older which included items on vaccination history as well as high-risk group status. Vaccination rates and characteristics of vaccinees were reported descriptively. Logistic regressions were conducted to predict vaccination behavior from sociodemographics and risk-related variables. RESULTS: The influenza vaccination rate for all adults 18 years and older has increased significantly from 28.0% to 36.2% from 2007 to 2011 (ps<.05. Compared with those not at high risk (25.1%, all high-risk groups were vaccinated at a higher rate, from 36.8% (pregnant women to 69.7% (those with renal/kidney disease; however, considerable variability among high-risk groups was observed. Vaccination rates among high-risk groups for other vaccines varied considerably though all were below 50%, with the exception of immunocompromised respondents (57.5% for the hepatitis B vaccine and 52.5% for the pneumococcal vaccine and the elderly (50.4% for the pneumococcal. Multiple risk factors were associated with increased rate of vaccination for most vaccines. Significant racial/ethnic differences with influenza, hepatitis, and herpes zoster vaccination rates were also observed (ps<.05. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of influenza vaccination have increased over time. Rates varied by high-risk status, demographics, and vaccine. There was a pattern of modest vaccination rate increases for individuals with multiple risk factors. However, there were relatively low rates of vaccination for most risk-based recommendations

Dose and risk evaluation in digital mammography using computer modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Correa, Samanda Cristine Arruda; Souza, Edmilson Monteiro de, E-mail: scorrea@nuclear.ufrj.b, E-mail: emonteiro@nuclear.ufrj.b [Centro Universitario Estadual da Zona Oeste (CCMAT/UEZO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Silva, Humberto de Oliveira, E-mail: hbetorj@gmail.co [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro IF/UFRJ, RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica; Silva, Ademir Xavier da; Lopes, Ricardo Tadeu; Magalhaes, Sarah Braga, E-mail: ademir@nuclear.ufrj.b, E-mail: ricardo@lin.ufrj.b, E-mail: smagalhaes@nuclear.ufrj.b [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear

2010-07-01

Digital mammography has been introduced in several countries in the last years. The new technology requires new optimising methods considering for instance the increased possibility of changing the absorbed dose, mainly in modern mammographic systems that allow the operator to choose the beam quality by varying the tube voltage, and filter and target materials. In this work, the Monte Carlo code MCNPX is used in order to investigate how the average glandular dose vary with tube voltage (23-32 kV) and anode-filter combination (Mo-Mo,Mo-Rh and Rh-Rh) in digital mammographic examinations. Furthermore, the risk of breast cancer incidence attributable to mammography exams was estimated using the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR) VII Committee Report. The results show that the risk of breast cancer incidence in women younger than 30 years of age tends to decrease significantly using Rh-Rh anode-filter combination and higher tube voltage. For women older than 50 years of age the variation of tube voltage, and anode-filter combination did not influence the risk values considerably. (author)

Dose and risk evaluation in digital mammography using computer modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Correa, Samanda Cristine Arruda; Souza, Edmilson Monteiro de; Silva, Humberto de Oliveira; Silva, Ademir Xavier da; Lopes, Ricardo Tadeu; Magalhaes, Sarah Braga

2010-01-01

Digital mammography has been introduced in several countries in the last years. The new technology requires new optimising methods considering for instance the increased possibility of changing the absorbed dose, mainly in modern mammographic systems that allow the operator to choose the beam quality by varying the tube voltage, and filter and target materials. In this work, the Monte Carlo code MCNPX is used in order to investigate how the average glandular dose vary with tube voltage (23-32 kV) and anode-filter combination (Mo-Mo,Mo-Rh and Rh-Rh) in digital mammographic examinations. Furthermore, the risk of breast cancer incidence attributable to mammography exams was estimated using the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR) VII Committee Report. The results show that the risk of breast cancer incidence in women younger than 30 years of age tends to decrease significantly using Rh-Rh anode-filter combination and higher tube voltage. For women older than 50 years of age the variation of tube voltage, and anode-filter combination did not influence the risk values considerably. (author)

MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

Stress and food allergy: mechanistic considerations

OpenAIRE

Schreier, Hannah M.C.; Wright, Rosalind J.

2013-01-01

Recent years have seen a marked increase in food allergy prevalence among children, particularly in Western countries, that cannot be explained by genetic factors alone. This has resulted in an increased effort to identify environmental risk factors underlying food allergies and to understand how these factors may be modified through interventions. Food allergy is an immune-mediated adverse reaction to food. Consequently, considerations of candidate risk factors have begun to focus on environ...

Risk factors for low birth-weight in areas with varying malaria transmission in Korogwe, Tanzania: implications for malaria control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mmbando, Bruno Paul; Cole-Lewis, H; Sembuche, S

2008-01-01

Low birth weight (LBW) is a risk factor for infant mortality, morbidity, growth retardation, poor cognitive development, and chronic diseases. Maternal exposure to diseases such as malaria, HIV, and syphilis has been shown to have a significant impact on birth weight (BW). This study was aimed...... at determining whether there was a difference in rates of LBW in areas of varying malaria transmission intensity in Korogwe, Tanzania. Retrospective data for one year (June 2004-May 2005) in three maternal and child health (MCH) clinics in the district were analysed. Villages were stratified into three strata...... babies compared to first parity women (OR=0.44, 95% CI 0.19-0.98, P=0.045). Similarly, the risk of LBW was higher in women who had delayed MCH gestational booking and in women who conceived during high malaria transmission seasons. There was high degree of preference of digits ending with 0...

Animal Testing in the Risk Society and Violation of the Principle of Equal Consideration of Interests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael Speck de Souza

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This paper seeks to analyze the practice of animal testing under the paradigm of the Risk Society, Animal Rights, and in which point such research hurts the principle of equal consideration of like interests advocated by Peter Singer and other moral philosophers. On the one hand, this paper calls into question the attempt to transfer the results of an experiment with animals to reactions in humans, and the security criteria (or insecurity adopted by science. On the other hand, an evaluation is made of how much these animal models are considered speciesist practice, which does not take into account the interests of non-human sentient species (which are capable of suffering. The historical, comparative and deductive methods have been used in order to reach the intended goals. The sources of research used are mostly bibliographical: books, papers and journals. Theoretical references adopted were the risk society theory proposed by German sociologist Ulrich Beck and the animal ethics theory advocated by the Australian philosopher Peter Singer.

Prospective environmental risk assessment of mixtures in wastewater treatment plant effluents - Theoretical considerations and experimental verification.

Science.gov (United States)

Coors, Anja; Vollmar, Pia; Sacher, Frank; Polleichtner, Christian; Hassold, Enken; Gildemeister, Daniela; Kühnen, Ute

2018-04-14

The aquatic environment is continually exposed to a complex mixture of chemicals, whereby effluents of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are one key source. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether environmental risk assessments (ERAs) addressing individual substances are sufficiently protective for such coincidental mixtures. Based on a literature review of chemicals reported to occur in municipal WWTP effluents and mode-of-action considerations, four different types of mixtures were composed containing human pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and chemicals regulated under REACH. The experimentally determined chronic aquatic toxicity of these mixtures towards primary producers and the invertebrate Daphnia magna could be adequately predicted by the concept of concentration addition, with up to 5-fold overestimation and less than 3-fold underestimation of mixture toxicity. Effluents of a municipal WWTP had no impact on the predictability of mixture toxicity and showed no adverse effects on the test organisms. Predictive ERAs for the individual mixture components based on here derived predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs) and median measured concentrations in WWTP effluents (MC eff ) indicated no unacceptable risk for any of the individual chemicals, while MC eff /PNEC summation indicated a possible risk for multi-component mixtures. However, a refined mixture assessment based on the sum of toxic units at species level indicated no unacceptable risks, and allowed for a safety margin of more than factor 10, not taking into account any dilution of WWTP effluents by surface waters. Individual substances, namely climbazole, fenofibric acid and fluoxetine, were dominating the risks of the investigated mixtures, while added risk due to the mixture was found to be low with the risk quotient being increased by less than factor 2. Yet, uncertainty remains regarding chronic mixture toxicity in fish, which was not included in the present study. The number and

A new perspective on human health risk assessment: Development of a time dependent methodology and the effect of varying exposure durations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siirila, Erica R.; Maxwell, Reed M.

2012-01-01

We present a new Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) that stochastically considers how joint uncertainty and inter-individual variability (JUV) associated with human health risk change as a function of time. In contrast to traditional, time independent assessments of risk, this new formulation relays information on when the risk occurs, how long the duration of risk is, and how risk changes with time. Because the true exposure duration (ED) is often uncertain in a risk assessment, we also investigate how varying the magnitude of fixed size durations (ranging between 5 and 70 years) of this parameter affects the distribution of risk in both the time independent and dependent methodologies. To illustrate this new formulation and to investigate these mechanisms for sensitivity, an example of arsenic contaminated groundwater is used in conjunction with two scenarios of different environmental concentration signals resulting from rate dependencies in geochemical reactions. Cancer risk is computed and compared using environmental concentration ensembles modeled with sorption as 1) a linear equilibrium assumption (LEA) and 2) first order kinetics (Kin). Results show that the information attained in the new time dependent methodology reveals how the uncertainty in other time-dependent processes in the risk assessment may influence the uncertainty in risk. We also show that individual susceptibility also affects how risk changes in time, information that would otherwise be lost in the traditional, time independent methodology. These results are especially pertinent for forecasting risk in time, and for risk managers who are assessing the uncertainty of risk. - Highlights: ► A human health, Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) methodology is presented. ► TDRA relays information on the magnitude, duration, and fluxes of risk in time. ► Kinetic and equilibrium concentration signals show sensitivity in TDRA results. ► In the TDRA results, individual susceptibility

A new perspective on human health risk assessment: Development of a time dependent methodology and the effect of varying exposure durations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siirila, Erica R., E-mail: esiirila@mymail.mines.edu [Hydrologic Science and Engineering Program, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Maxwell, Reed M., E-mail: rmaxwell@mines.edu [Hydrologic Science and Engineering Program, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Integrated Groundwater Modeling Center (IGWMC), Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States)

2012-08-01

We present a new Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) that stochastically considers how joint uncertainty and inter-individual variability (JUV) associated with human health risk change as a function of time. In contrast to traditional, time independent assessments of risk, this new formulation relays information on when the risk occurs, how long the duration of risk is, and how risk changes with time. Because the true exposure duration (ED) is often uncertain in a risk assessment, we also investigate how varying the magnitude of fixed size durations (ranging between 5 and 70 years) of this parameter affects the distribution of risk in both the time independent and dependent methodologies. To illustrate this new formulation and to investigate these mechanisms for sensitivity, an example of arsenic contaminated groundwater is used in conjunction with two scenarios of different environmental concentration signals resulting from rate dependencies in geochemical reactions. Cancer risk is computed and compared using environmental concentration ensembles modeled with sorption as 1) a linear equilibrium assumption (LEA) and 2) first order kinetics (Kin). Results show that the information attained in the new time dependent methodology reveals how the uncertainty in other time-dependent processes in the risk assessment may influence the uncertainty in risk. We also show that individual susceptibility also affects how risk changes in time, information that would otherwise be lost in the traditional, time independent methodology. These results are especially pertinent for forecasting risk in time, and for risk managers who are assessing the uncertainty of risk. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A human health, Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) methodology is presented. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer TDRA relays information on the magnitude, duration, and fluxes of risk in time. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Kinetic and equilibrium concentration signals show

Multi-period project portfolio selection under risk considerations and stochastic income

Science.gov (United States)

Tofighian, Ali Asghar; Moezzi, Hamid; Khakzar Barfuei, Morteza; Shafiee, Mahmood

2018-02-01

This paper deals with multi-period project portfolio selection problem. In this problem, the available budget is invested on the best portfolio of projects in each period such that the net profit is maximized. We also consider more realistic assumptions to cover wider range of applications than those reported in previous studies. A novel mathematical model is presented to solve the problem, considering risks, stochastic incomes, and possibility of investing extra budget in each time period. Due to the complexity of the problem, an effective meta-heuristic method hybridized with a local search procedure is presented to solve the problem. The algorithm is based on genetic algorithm (GA), which is a prominent method to solve this type of problems. The GA is enhanced by a new solution representation and well selected operators. It also is hybridized with a local search mechanism to gain better solution in shorter time. The performance of the proposed algorithm is then compared with well-known algorithms, like basic genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and electromagnetism-like algorithm (EM-like) by means of some prominent indicators. The computation results show the superiority of the proposed algorithm in terms of accuracy, robustness and computation time. At last, the proposed algorithm is wisely combined with PSO to improve the computing time considerably.

Risk communication considerations to facilitate the screening of mass populations for potential contamination with radioactive material.

Science.gov (United States)

Emery, R J; Sprau, D D; Morecook, R C

2008-11-01

Experience gained during a field training exercise with a Medical Reserve Corps unit on the screening of large groups of individuals for possible contamination with radioactive material revealed that while exercise participants were generally attentive to the proper use of protective equipment and detectors, they tended to overlook important basic risk communications aspects. For example, drill participants did not actively communicate with the persons waiting in line for screening, a step which would provide re-assurance, possibly minimize apprehension, and would clarify expectations. When questioned on this issue of risk communication, drill participants were often able to craft ad hoc messages, but the messages were inconsistent and likely would not have significantly helped diminish anxiety and maintain crowd control. Similar difficulties were encountered regarding messaging for persons determined to be contaminated, those departing the screening center, and those to be delivered to the media. Based on these experiences, the need for a suggested list of risk communication points was identified. To address this need, a set of risk communication templates were developed that focused on the issues likely to be encountered in a mass screening event. The points include issues such as the importance of remaining calm, steps for minimizing possible intake or uptake, considerations for those exhibiting acute injuries, expected screening wait times, the process to be followed and the information to be collected, the process to be undertaken for those exhibiting contamination, and symptoms to watch for after departure. Drill participants indicated in follow-up discussions that such pre-established risk communication templates would serve to enhance their ability to assist in times of emergency and noted the potential broader applicably of the approach for use in responses for other disasters types as well.

Temporal framing and consideration of future consequences: effects on smokers' and at-risk nonsmokers' responses to cigarette health warnings.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Xiaoquan; Nan, Xiaoli; Iles, Irina Alexandra; Yang, Bo

2015-01-01

This research examines the influence of temporal framing (long-term vs. short-term) and individual difference in consideration of future consequences (CFC) on the effectiveness of cigarette health warnings among smokers and at-risk nonsmokers in a college population. An online experiment (N = 395) revealed a three-way interaction among temporal framing, CFC, and smoking status. The results among at-risk nonsmokers supported the temporal fit hypothesis--those high in CFC responded more favorably to long-term framing, whereas those low in CFC responded more positively to short-term framing. The findings among smokers revealed a different pattern in which short-term framing was more effective among high-CFC smokers, whereas among low-CFC smokers the framing effect was not distinct. Theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.

Quantifying risks in nuclear waste isolation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mortenson, S.

1982-01-01

A top-level application of an RSS risk assessment procedure is selected as a unifying framework within which the long-time (about 1000 years) performance of a waste repository may be considered. Two major themes are developed: First, the fractional contribution of the engineered features to the ''system'' risk is determined. This contribution effectively segregates those features over which conservative design and quality control may be used to control risk. Second, the development of event tree logic to support such analysis is shown to represent a meaningful, systematic means of factoring-in the total system dynamics; in particular, the generality provided by such an approach lends itself well to consideration of a broad spectrum of accident sequences which includes varying responses of the waste repository system to time-dependent ''accident'' initiators and system failure synergism. Modification to traditional logic development methods to span the longtime system performance are described in some detail, and the attendant data requirements are developed

Limited risk assessment and some cost/benefit considerations for greater confinement disposal compared to shallow land burial

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunter, P.H.; Lester, D.H.; Robertson, L.D.; Spaeth, M.E.; Stoddard, J.A.; Dickman, P.T.

1984-09-01

A limited risk assessment and some cost/benefit considerations of greater confinement disposal (GCD) compared to shallow land burial (SLB) are presented. This study is limited to an analysis of the postclosure phase of hypothetical GCD and SLB facilities. Selected release scenarios are used which bound the range of risks to a maximally exposed individual and a hypothetical population. Based on the scenario assessments, GCD had a significant risk advantage over SLB for normal exposure pathways at both humid and arid sites, particularly for the human intrusion scenario. Since GCD costs are somewhat higher than SLB, it is necessary to weigh the higher costs of GCD against the higher risks of SLB. In this regard, GCD should be pursued as an alternative to SLB for certain types of low-level waste, and as an alternative to processing for wastes requiring improved stabilization or higher integrity packaging to be compatible with SLB. There are two reasons for this conclusion. First, GCD might diminish public apprehension regarding the disposal of wastes perceived to be too hazardous for SLB. Second, GCD may be a relatively cost-effective alternative to various stabilization and packaging schemes required to meet 10 CFR 61 near-surface requirements as well as being a cost-effective alternative to deep geologic disposal. Radionuclide transport through the biosphere and resultant dose consequences were determined using the RADTRAN radionuclide transport code. 19 references, 4 figures, 5 tables

Environmental radiation standards and risk limitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kocher, D.C.

1987-01-01

The Environmental Protection Agency and Nuclear Regulatory Commission have established environmental radiation standards for specific practices which correspond to limits on risk to the public that vary by several orders of magnitude and often are much less than radiation risks that are essentially unregulated, e.g., risks from radon in homes. This paper discusses a proposed framework for environmental radiation standards that would improve the correspondence with limitation of risk. This framework includes the use of limits on annual effective dose equivalent averaged over a lifetime, rather than limits on dose equivalent to whole body or any organ for each year of exposure, and consideration of exposures of younger age groups as well as adults; limits on annual effective dose equivalent averaged over a lifetime no lower than 0.25 mSv (25 mrem) per practice; maintenance of all exposures as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA); and establishment of a generally applicable de minimis dose for public exposures. Implications of the proposed regulatory framework for the current system of standards for limiting public exposures are discussed. 20 refs

Risk of Stress Fracture Varies by Race/Ethnic Origin in a Cohort Study of 1.3 Million US Army Soldiers.

Science.gov (United States)

Bulathsinhala, Lakmini; Hughes, Julie M; McKinnon, Craig J; Kardouni, Joseph R; Guerriere, Katelyn I; Popp, Kristin L; Matheny, Ronald W; Bouxsein, Mary L

2017-07-01

Stress fractures (SF) are common and costly injuries in military personnel. Risk for SF has been shown to vary with race/ethnicity. Previous studies report increased SF risk in white and Hispanic Soldiers compared with black Soldiers. However, these studies did not account for the large ethnic diversity in the US military. We aimed to identify differences in SF risk among racial/ethnic groups within the US Army. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the Total Army Injury and Health Outcomes Database from 2001 until 2011. SF diagnoses were identified from ICD-9 codes. We used Cox-proportional hazard models to calculate time to SF by racial/ethnic group after adjusting for age, education, and body mass index. We performed a sex-stratified analysis to determine whether the ethnic variation in SF risk depends on sex. We identified 21,549 SF cases in 1,299,332 Soldiers (more than 5,228,525 person-years of risk), revealing an overall incidence rate of 4.12 per 1000 person-years (7.47 and 2.05 per 1000 person-years in women and men, respectively). Using non-Hispanic blacks as the referent group, non-Hispanic white women had the highest risk of SF, with a 92% higher risk of SF than non-Hispanic black women (1.92 [1.81-2.03]), followed by American Indian/Native Alaskan women (1.72 [1.44-1.79]), Hispanic women (1.65 [1.53-1.79]), and Asian women (1.32 [1.16-1.49]). Similarly, non-Hispanic white men had the highest risk of SF, with a 59% higher risk of SF than non-Hispanic black men (1.59 [1.50-1.68]), followed by Hispanic men (1.19 [1.10-1.29]). When examining the total US Army population, we found substantial differences in the risk of stress fracture among racial/ethnic groups, with non-Hispanic white Soldiers at greatest risk and Hispanic, American Indian/Native Alaskan, and Asian Soldiers at an intermediate risk. Additional studies are needed to determine the factors underlying these race- and ethnic-related differences in stress fracture risk. �

Radiation and nuclear risk - considerations for those affected. A RISKPERCOM summary report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reitan, J.B.; Mays, C.; Lindstroem, A.L.C.; Sjoeberg, L.; Toennessen, A

1999-07-01

This report contains four summaries of national case reports from France, Norway, Spain and Sweden, published elsewhere, and a general discussion. The case reports deal with various aspects of radioactive waste and radioactive fallout, and the situation and information needs of affected populations. The four case studies have not examined the same problems. Nevertheless, they are focusing segments of the population experiencing or perceiving an actual or future radiation or nuclear risk larger than the average citizen. The studies show problems in addressing those groups, and with different solution in the four countries. No definite answer can be given as to which approach is the most rewarding. A multitude of factors may contribute to any success. It seems, however, that an increased emphasis on communication and public involvement versus information alone is considered important. The situations reported cannot be said to have achieved effective public involvement. Indeed, in the siting cases, it may be hypothesized that the contradiction between stated intention to involve the public, and the actual opportunities for (unorganized) residents to make themselves heard, may contribute to tension and detract from credibility. Still, the trends observed in these case studies toward more consideration by authorities of communication needs, should be welcomed.

Radiation and nuclear risk - considerations for those affected. A RISKPERCOM summary report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reitan, J.B.; Mays, C.; Lindstroem, A.L.C.; Sjoeberg, L.; Toennessen, A.

1999-07-01

This report contains four summaries of national case reports from France, Norway, Spain and Sweden, published elsewhere, and a general discussion. The case reports deal with various aspects of radioactive waste and radioactive fallout, and the situation and information needs of affected populations. The four case studies have not examined the same problems. Nevertheless, they are focusing segments of the population experiencing or perceiving an actual or future radiation or nuclear risk larger than the average citizen. The studies show problems in addressing those groups, and with different solution in the four countries. No definite answer can be given as to which approach is the most rewarding. A multitude of factors may contribute to any success. It seems, however, that an increased emphasis on communication and public involvement versus information alone is considered important. The situations reported cannot be said to have achieved effective public involvement. Indeed, in the siting cases, it may be hypothesized that the contradiction between stated intention to involve the public, and the actual opportunities for (unorganized) residents to make themselves heard, may contribute to tension and detract from credibility. Still, the trends observed in these case studies toward more consideration by authorities of communication needs, should be welcomed

Cardiovascular Risk in Primary Hyperaldosteronism.

Science.gov (United States)

Prejbisz, A; Warchoł-Celińska, E; Lenders, J W M; Januszewicz, A

2015-12-01

After the first cases of primary aldosteronism were described and characterized by Conn, a substantial body of experimental and clinical evidence about the long-term effects of excess aldosterone on the cardiovascular system was gathered over the last 5 decades. The prevalence of primary aldosteronism varies considerably between different studies among hypertensive patients, depending on patient selection, the used diagnostic methods, and the severity of hypertension. Prevalence rates vary from 4.6 to 16.6% in those studies in which confirmatory tests to diagnose primary aldosteronism were used. There is also growing evidence indicating that prolonged exposure to elevated aldosterone concentrations is associated with target organ damage in the heart, kidney, and arterial wall, and high cardiovascular risk in patients with primary aldosteronism. Therefore, the aim of treatment should not be confined to BP normalization and hypokalemia correction, but rather should focus on restoring the deleterious effects of excess aldosterone on the cardiovascular system. Current evidence convincingly demonstrates that both surgical and medical treatment strategies beneficially affect cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in the long term. Further studies can be expected to provide better insight into the relationship between cardiovascular risk and complications and the genetic background of primary aldosteronism. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Telecommuting: Occupational health considerations for employee health and safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Healy, M L

2000-06-01

1. Information technology has moved "work" out of a centralized location. Employees who telecommute pose significant challenges and considerations for the practice of occupational health nursing. 2. Employer and employee benefits associated with telecommuting are reportedly associated with high levels of job satisfaction. However, the occupational health and safety risks of this new work environment need to be fully assessed and understood. 3. The ergonomic controls to minimize the risk of repetitive motion injuries are the same for both office and home locations. Additional attention need to be paid to implementing risk controls for other physical hazards and psychosocial considerations, as well as personal safety and security issues. 4. The scope of occupational health nursing practice needs to remain dynamic, recognizing the impact new technologies have on the workplace, to continue to meet the needs of the changing workplace.

Risk management in power generation and trading planning with financial instruments; Risikomanagement fuer Stromerzeugungs- und Handelsunternehmen mit Finanzinstrumenten

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blaesig, B.; Huebner, M.; Hinueber, G.; Haubrich, H.J. [Technische Hochschule Aachen (Germany). Lehrstuhl und Inst. fuer Elektrische Anlagen und Energiewirtschaft

2006-04-15

Volatile prices in the electric power trade and varying customers' acceptance increasingly set the companies under competitive pressure and cause planning uncertainties on the producer side. In order to justice to the changed requirements in the energy economy, new methods for a systematic risk management must be developed within planning. On the basis of power generation planning and a commercial planning the authors of the contribution under consideration report on the development of a risk management with financial instruments.

Time varying determinants of bond flows to emerging markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yasemin Erduman

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the time varying nature of the determinants of bond flows with a focus on the global financial crisis period. We estimate a time varying regression model using Bayesian estimation methods, where the posterior distribution is approximated by Gibbs sampling algorithm. Our findings suggest that the interest rate differential is the most significant pull factor of portfolio bond flows, along with the inflation rate, while the growth rate does not play a significant role. Among the push factors, global liquidity is the most important driver of bond flows. It matters the most, when unconventional monetary easing policies were first announced; and its importance as a determinant of portfolio bond flows decreases over time, starting with the Eurozone crisis, and diminishes with the tapering talk. Global risk appetite and the risk perception towards the emerging countries also have relatively small and stable significant effects on bond flows.

Social change, globalization and transcultural psychiatry--some considerations from a study on women and depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Dech, Heike; Ndetei, David M; Machleidt, Wieland

2003-01-01

Transcultural psychiatry, whose scientific founder Emil Kraepelin is considered as, in its 100 years of tradition has not only developed a varied range of methods but has also brought about a change in the respective scientific questions as well as in related research and clinical applications. Whereas transcultural research on the psychopathology of depression contributed to the further development of psychiatric nosology, transcultural psychiatry has recently been increasingly faced with issues concerning phenomena of social change and globalization. One region, where such conditions can be observed in particular is Africa, where the dissolving of traditional standards and support systems and growing economic insecurity causes a considerable burden especially on women. As an example, results from a cross-sectional study on East African women using a two step design as well as qualitative and quantitative, standardized psychiatric methods are discussed concerning the association of social change, psycho-social risk factors and the development of depressive disorders. Efficient clinical methods towards diagnosis and treatment of new risk groups will have to be developed, of which an important aspect will be crisis intervention.

Uncertainty Quantification Reveals the Importance of Data Variability and Experimental Design Considerations for in Silico Proarrhythmia Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelly C. Chang

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The Comprehensive in vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CiPA is a global initiative intended to improve drug proarrhythmia risk assessment using a new paradigm of mechanistic assays. Under the CiPA paradigm, the relative risk of drug-induced Torsade de Pointes (TdP is assessed using an in silico model of the human ventricular action potential (AP that integrates in vitro pharmacology data from multiple ion channels. Thus, modeling predictions of cardiac risk liability will depend critically on the variability in pharmacology data, and uncertainty quantification (UQ must comprise an essential component of the in silico assay. This study explores UQ methods that may be incorporated into the CiPA framework. Recently, we proposed a promising in silico TdP risk metric (qNet, which is derived from AP simulations and allows separation of a set of CiPA training compounds into Low, Intermediate, and High TdP risk categories. The purpose of this study was to use UQ to evaluate the robustness of TdP risk separation by qNet. Uncertainty in the model parameters used to describe drug binding and ionic current block was estimated using the non-parametric bootstrap method and a Bayesian inference approach. Uncertainty was then propagated through AP simulations to quantify uncertainty in qNet for each drug. UQ revealed lower uncertainty and more accurate TdP risk stratification by qNet when simulations were run at concentrations below 5× the maximum therapeutic exposure (Cmax. However, when drug effects were extrapolated above 10× Cmax, UQ showed that qNet could no longer clearly separate drugs by TdP risk. This was because for most of the pharmacology data, the amount of current block measured was <60%, preventing reliable estimation of IC50-values. The results of this study demonstrate that the accuracy of TdP risk prediction depends both on the intrinsic variability in ion channel pharmacology data as well as on experimental design considerations that preclude an

Methodological comparison of marginal structural model, time-varying Cox regression, and propensity score methods: the example of antidepressant use and the risk of hip fracture.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, M Sanni; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Belitser, Svetlana V; Souverein, Patrick C; Martín, Elisa; Gatto, Nicolle M; Huerta, Consuelo; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Roes, Kit C B; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, Antonius; Klungel, Olaf H

2016-03-01

Observational studies including time-varying treatments are prone to confounding. We compared time-varying Cox regression analysis, propensity score (PS) methods, and marginal structural models (MSMs) in a study of antidepressant [selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)] use and the risk of hip fracture. A cohort of patients with a first prescription for antidepressants (SSRI or tricyclic antidepressants) was extracted from the Dutch Mondriaan and Spanish Base de datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria (BIFAP) general practice databases for the period 2001-2009. The net (total) effect of SSRI versus no SSRI on the risk of hip fracture was estimated using time-varying Cox regression, stratification and covariate adjustment using the PS, and MSM. In MSM, censoring was accounted for by inverse probability of censoring weights. The crude hazard ratio (HR) of SSRI use versus no SSRI use on hip fracture was 1.75 (95%CI: 1.12, 2.72) in Mondriaan and 2.09 (1.89, 2.32) in BIFAP. After confounding adjustment using time-varying Cox regression, stratification, and covariate adjustment using the PS, HRs increased in Mondriaan [2.59 (1.63, 4.12), 2.64 (1.63, 4.25), and 2.82 (1.63, 4.25), respectively] and decreased in BIFAP [1.56 (1.40, 1.73), 1.54 (1.39, 1.71), and 1.61 (1.45, 1.78), respectively]. MSMs with stabilized weights yielded HR 2.15 (1.30, 3.55) in Mondriaan and 1.63 (1.28, 2.07) in BIFAP when accounting for censoring and 2.13 (1.32, 3.45) in Mondriaan and 1.66 (1.30, 2.12) in BIFAP without accounting for censoring. In this empirical study, differences between the different methods to control for time-dependent confounding were small. The observed differences in treatment effect estimates between the databases are likely attributable to different confounding information in the datasets, illustrating that adequate information on (time-varying) confounding is crucial to prevent bias. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Interventions to Address Parenting and Parental Substance Abuse: Conceptual and Methodological Considerations

Science.gov (United States)

Neger, Emily N.; Prinz, Ronald J.

2015-01-01

Parental substance abuse is a serious problem affecting the well-being of children and families. The co-occurrence of parental substance abuse and problematic parenting is recognized as a major public health concern. This review focuses on 21 outcome studies that tested dual treatment of substance abuse and parenting. A summary of theoretical conceptualizations of the connections between substance abuse and parenting provides a backdrop for the review. Outcomes of the dual treatment studies were generally positive with respect to reduction of parental substance use and improvement of parenting. Research in this area varied in methodological rigor and needs to overcome challenges regarding design issues, sampling frame, and complexities inherent in such a high-risk population. This area of work can be strengthened by randomized controlled trials, use of mixed-methods outcome measures, consideration of parent involvement with child protective services, involvement of significant others in treatment, provision of concrete supports for treatment attendance and facilitative public policies. PMID:25939033

Interventions to address parenting and parental substance abuse: conceptual and methodological considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Neger, Emily N; Prinz, Ronald J

2015-07-01

Parental substance abuse is a serious problem affecting the well-being of children and families. The co-occurrence of parental substance abuse and problematic parenting is recognized as a major public health concern. This review focuses on 21 outcome studies that tested dual treatment of substance abuse and parenting. A summary of theoretical conceptualizations of the connections between substance abuse and parenting provides a backdrop for the review. Outcomes of the dual treatment studies were generally positive with respect to reduction of parental substance use and improvement of parenting. Research in this area varied in methodological rigor and needs to overcome challenges regarding design issues, sampling frame, and complexities inherent in such a high-risk population. This area of work can be strengthened by randomized controlled trials, use of mixed-methods outcome measures, consideration of parent involvement with child protective services, involvement of significant others in treatment, provision of concrete supports for treatment attendance and facilitative public policies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vibration condition monitoring of planetary gearbox under varying external load

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bartelmus, W.; Zimroz, R. [Wroclaw University of Technology, Wroclaw (Poland)

2009-01-15

The paper shows that for condition monitoring of planetary gearboxes it is important to identify the external varying load condition. In the paper, systematic consideration has been taken of the influence of many factors on the vibration signals generated by a system in which a planetary gearbox is included. These considerations give the basis for vibration signal interpretation, development of the means of condition monitoring, and for the scenario of the degradation of the planetary gearbox. Real measured vibration signals obtained in the industrial environment are processed. The signals are recorded during normal operation of the diagnosed objects, namely planetary gearboxes, which are a part of the driving system used in a bucket wheel excavator, used in lignite mines. It has been found that the most important factor of the proper planetary gearbox condition is connected with perturbation of arm rotation, where an arm rotation gives rise to a specific vibration signal whose properties are depicted by a short-time Fourier transform (STFT) and Wigner-Ville distribution presented as a time-frequency map. The paper gives evidence that there are two dominant low-frequency causes that influence vibration signal modulation, i.e. the varying load, which comes from the nature of the bucket wheel digging process, and the arm/carrier rotation. These two causes determine the condition of the planetary gearboxes considered.

Assessment of the radiological risks of road transport accidents involving type A-packages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lange, F.; Fett, H.J.; Schwarz, G.; Raffestin, D.; Schneider, T.; Gelder, R.; Hughes, J.S.; Shaw, K.B.; Hedberg, B.; Simenstad, P.; Svahn, B.; Van Hienen, J.F.A.; Jansma, R.

1998-10-01

This document, prepared in the framework of a study for the European Commission, presents the evaluation of the risks of accidents associated to the road transport of type A-packages (primarily packages of radio-pharmaceutic or radiography products) for five countries of the European Union. The annual transport of type A-packages varies considerably from one country to another, some countries being producers of radio-pharmaceutic products, others not. These packages are also very different one from each another: the weight varies generally from 1 to 25 kg and the activity from some Mega-Becquerels to few tens of Giga-Becquerels, the average activity expressed in A 2 is 0,01. (A.L.B.)

Anistropically varying conductivity in irreversible electroporation simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Labarbera, Nicholas; Drapaca, Corina

2017-11-01

One recent area of cancer research is irreversible electroporation (IRE). Irreversible electroporation is a minimally invasive procedure where needle electrodes are inserted into the body to ablate tumor cells with electricity. The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model that incorporates a tissue's conductivity increasing more in the direction of the electrical field as this has been shown to occur in experiments. It was necessary to mathematically derive a valid form of the conductivity tensor such that it is dependent on the electrical field direction and can be easily implemented into numerical software. The derivation of a conductivity tensor that can take arbitrary functions for the conductivity in the directions tangent and normal to the electrical field is the main contribution of this paper. Numerical simulations were performed for isotropic-varying and anisotropic-varying conductivities to evaluate the importance of including the electrical field's direction in the formulation for conductivity. By starting from previously published experimental results, this paper derived a general formulation for an anistropic-varying tensor for implementation into irreversible electroporation modeling software. The anistropic-varying tensor formulation allows the conductivity to take into consideration both electrical field direction and magnitude, as opposed to previous published works that only took into account electrical field magnitude. The anisotropic formulation predicts roughly a five percent decrease in ablation size for the monopolar simulation and approximately a ten percent decrease in ablation size for the bipolar simulations. This is a positive result as previously reported results found the isotropic formulation to overpredict ablation size for both monopolar and bipolar simulations. Furthermore, it was also reported that the isotropic formulation overpredicts the ablation size more for the bipolar case than the monopolar case. Thus, our

Current Practices in Global/International Advanced Pharmacy Practice Experiences: Preceptor and Student Considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Dornblaser, Emily K; Ratka, Anna; Gleason, Shaun E; Ombengi, David N; Tofade, Toyin; Wigle, Patricia R; Zapantis, Antonia; Ryan, Melody; Connor, Sharon; Jonkman, Lauren J; Ochs, Leslie; Jungnickel, Paul W; Abrons, Jeanine P; Alsharif, Naser Z

2016-04-25

The objective of this article is to describe the key areas of consideration for global/international advanced pharmacy practice experience (G/I APPE) preceptors, students and learning objectives. At the 2013 Annual Meeting of the American Association of Colleges of Pharmacy (AACP), the GPE SIG prepared and presented an initial report on the G/IAPPE initiatives. Round table discussions were conducted at the 2014 AACP Annual Meeting to document GPE SIG member input on key areas in the report. Literature search of PubMed, Google Scholar and EMBASE with keywords was conducted to expand this report. In this paper, considerations related to preceptors and students and learning outcomes are described. Preceptors for G/I APPEs may vary based on the learning outcomes of the experience. Student learning outcomes for G/I APPEs may vary based on the type of experiential site. Recommendations and future directions for development of G/IAPPEs are presented. Development of a successful G/I APPE requires significant planning and consideration of appropriate qualifications for preceptors and students.

Age as a factor in assessing risks to patients from the use of x-rays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le Heron, J.

1996-01-01

Effective dose is currently widely used as a means of quantifying patient dose (and hence patient risk) in diagnostic radiology. Its appeal stems primarily from being able to normalise partial body irradiations into equivalent whole body irradiations, and additionally from being linked to a sound definition of radiation detriment. However there are several aspects of effective dose that should lead to its use being accompnied by a degree of caution. One such factor is age. Calculation of age specific tissue weighting factors for the tissues used in the formulation of effective dose show that the relative contributions of the tissues vary considerably as a function of age. When this is combined with age specific risk factors for cancers and hereditary effects, the implications of a given 'effective dose' for an x-ray procedure depend markedly on the age of the patient. Because of the elderly component of the patient population, the ensuing risks arising from diagnostic radiology are at a level considerably less than that assessed using the population-averaged approach. (author)

Carcinogenic risk in diagnostic nuclear medicine: biological and epidemiological considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Overbeek, F.; Pauwels, E.K.J.; Broerse, J.J.

1994-01-01

During the last decade new data have become available on the mechanism of carcinogenesis and on cancer induction by ionizing radiation. This review concentrates on these two items in relation to the use of radiopharmaceuticals in diagnostic nuclear medicine. On the basis of reports of expert committees, the concept of radiation risk is elucidated for high and low doses. Mortality risk factors due to ionizing radiation are put in perspective to other risks. The extra risk for patients who undergo a scintigraphic examination for fatal cancer is very small and is of the order of 1.4 x 10 -4 . It is most unlikely that this figure can even be verified by actual measurement since the majority of nuclear medicine patients will die of other causes before the radiogenic cancer manifests itself. (orig.)

Calculating sales prices for natural gas. Securing success through an assessment of risks and opportunities; Vertriebspreiskalkulation Erdgas. Erfolgssicherung durch Chancen- und Risikobewertung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gumbel, Steffen; Henze, Michael [energie quader GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany)

2011-11-15

Over the past years the gas market, which was once entirely supply-driven, has developed more and more into a buyer's market. Gas supply companies increasingly see themselves confronted with more innovative and varied supply inquiries from their customers. With sales margins increasingly coming under pressure, this often leaves no option but to give close consideration to the appropriate risk premium. This creates an urgent need to review existing risk assessment methods and put a stronger focus on possible opportunities.

Risks of Terrorism, Homicide and Illness: a Methodological Consideration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard J. Chasdi

2013-12-01

Full Text Available A recurring question posed to researchers is whether or not terrorism poses similar degrees of risk as other man-made or natural disasters. There are some specialists, such as John Mueller, who argue that somewhat ironically, the threat of terrorism is vastly exaggerated.[1] This begs the question : compared to what? The underlying aim of this Research Note is to point out some basic methodological and contextual issues to consider, rather than making an attempt to provide hard answers regarding relative individual and collective risks. However, an effort is made to place some empirical findings into appropriate political and social contexts. The framework for discussion includes: basic conceptual problems regarding the notion of “risk”; a comparison of certain basic terrorism incident rates with rates for homicides and illness; and identification of possible future directions to gauge risk assessment within the context of a more holistic systems perspective. 

The clinical trajectory of emerging bipolar disorder among the high-risk offspring of bipolar parents: current understanding and future considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Duffy, A; Vandeleur, C; Heffer, N; Preisig, M

2017-11-22

Relatively little is known about the onset of bipolar disorder, yet the early illness course is already associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Therefore, characterizing the bipolar illness trajectory is key to risk prediction and early intervention advancement. In this narrative review, we discuss key findings from prospective longitudinal studies of the high-risk offspring of bipolar parents and related meta-analyses that inform us about the clinical trajectory of emerging bipolar disorder. Challenges such as phenotypic and etiologic heterogeneity and the non-specificity of early symptoms and syndromes are highlighted. Implications of the findings for both research and clinical practice are discussed. Bipolar disorder in young people at familial risk does not typically onset with a hypomanic or manic episode. Rather the first activated episode is often preceded by years of impairing psychopathological states that vary over development and across emerging bipolar subtype. Taking heterogeneity into account and adopting a more comprehensive approach to diagnosis seems necessary to advance earlier identification and our understanding of the onset of bipolar disorder.

Menopausal Estrogen Therapy Benefits and Risks Vary by Age, WHI Analysis Suggests

Science.gov (United States)

Long-term follow-up data from the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) provide new information about the potential risks and benefits of hormone therapy to treat symptoms related to menopause, including its effect on breast cancer risk,

Accounting Considerations in Public Sector Risk Management Pools.

Science.gov (United States)

Commons, Harriet V.

1987-01-01

The Government Accounting Standards Board's Insurance Issues Project has issued an invitation to comment on two issues: (1) whether governmental risk pools should follow the same accounting principles as commercial insurance companies and (2) financial statement disclosures required of entities with public accountability (MLF)

Power quality improvement in highly varying loads using thyristor-switched capacitor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poshtan, M. [Petroleum Inst., Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates). Dept. of Electrical Engineering; Mokhtari, H.; Esmaeili, A. [Sharif Univ. of Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

2007-07-01

Ordinary contactor-based-capacitor (CBC) banks may not be able to response quickly enough in highly varying electrical loads such as welding machines or arc furnace loads. Thyristor-switched capacitor (TSC) banks are therefore used to compensate for reactive power of highly varying loads. In this paper, the performance of a TSC was compared to CBC banks. The 2 systems, were also compared in terms of energy saving in transmission systems. Simulations carried out using PSCAD/EMTDC software showed that there was a considerable difference in the performance of the 2 systems. The shortcomings of existing CBC systems include slow response of mechanical switching systems; problem of switching more than one bank into the system; and, voltage/current transients during on-off switching. 3 refs., 6 tabs., 14 figs.

Effects of varying laser trimming geometries on thin film\\ud resistors

OpenAIRE

Alafogianni, Maria; Birkett, Martin; Penlington, Roger

2017-01-01

Purpose - This paper studies the effects of varying laser trim patterns on several performance parameters of thin film resistors such as the temperature coefficient of resistance (TCR) and target resistance value.\\ud \\ud Design/methodology/approach - The benefits and limitations of basic trim patterns are taken into consideration and the plunge cut, double plunge cut and the curved L-cut were selected to be modelled and tested experimentally. A computer simulation of the laser trim patterns h...

The epigenetic effects of assisted reproductive technologies: ethical considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, M-C; Dupras, C; Ravitsky, V

2017-08-01

The use of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) has increased significantly, allowing many coping with infertility to conceive. However, an emerging body of evidence suggests that ART could carry epigenetic risks for those conceived through the use of these technologies. In accordance with the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease hypothesis, ART could increase the risk of developing late-onset diseases through epigenetic mechanisms, as superovulation, fertilization methods and embryo culture could impair the embryo's epigenetic reprogramming. Such epigenetic risks raise ethical issues for all stakeholders: prospective parents and children, health professionals and society. This paper focuses on ethical issues raised by the consideration of these risks when using ART. We apply two key ethical principles of North American bioethics (respect for autonomy and non-maleficence) and suggest that an ethical tension may emerge from conflicting duties to promote the reproductive autonomy of prospective parents on one hand, and to minimize risks to prospective children on the other. We argue that this tension is inherent to the entire enterprise of ART and thus cannot be addressed by individual clinicians in individual cases. We also consider the implications of the 'non-identity problem' in this context. We call for additional research that would allow a more robust evidence base for policy. We also call upon professional societies to provide clinicians with guidelines and educational resources to facilitate the communication of epigenetic risks associated with ART to patients, taking into consideration the challenges of communicating risk information whose validity is still uncertain.

Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Craniospinal Irradiation: Target Volume Considerations, Dose Constraints, and Competing Risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parker, William; Filion, Edith; Roberge, David; Freeman, Carolyn R.

2007-01-01

Purpose: To report the results of an analysis of dose received to tissues and organs outside the target volume, in the setting of spinal axis irradiation for the treatment of medulloblastoma, using three treatment techniques. Methods and Materials: Treatment plans (total dose, 23.4 Gy) for a standard two-dimensional (2D) technique, a three-dimensional (3D) technique using a 3D imaging-based target volume, and an intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) technique, were compared for 3 patients in terms of dose-volume statistics for target coverage, as well as organ at risk (OAR) and overall tissue sparing. Results: Planning target volume coverage and dose homogeneity was superior for the IMRT plans for V 95% (IMRT, 100%; 3D, 96%; 2D, 98%) and V 107% (IMRT, 3%; 3D, 38%; 2D, 37%). In terms of OAR sparing, the IMRT plan was better for all organs and whole-body contour when comparing V 10Gy , V 15Gy , and V 20Gy . The 3D plan was superior for V 5Gy and below. For the heart and liver in particular, the IMRT plans provided considerable sparing in terms of V 10Gy and above. In terms of the integral dose, the IMRT plans were superior for liver (IMRT, 21.9 J; 3D, 28.6 J; 2D, 38.6 J) and heart (IMRT, 9 J; 3D, 14.1J; 2D, 19.4 J), the 3D plan for the body contour (IMRT, 349 J; 3D, 337 J; 2D, 555 J). Conclusions: Intensity-modulated radiotherapy is a valid treatment option for spinal axis irradiation. We have shown that IMRT results in sparing of organs at risk without a significant increase in integral dose

Models of quality-adjusted life years when health varies over time

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

2006-01-01

Qualityadjusted life year (QALY) models are widely used for economic evaluation in the health care sector. In the first part of the paper, we establish an overview of QALY models where health varies over time and provide a theoretical analysis of model identification and parameter estimation from...... time tradeoff (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning...... of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken when drawing conclusions from models with chronic health states to situations where health varies over time. One notable difference is that in the former case, risk aversion may be indistinguishable from...

Abuse and neglect in children with disabilities: risk varies by type of disability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miriam Maclean

2017-04-01

Different disabilities are associated with differing risk of child maltreatment and child protection involvement. Groups that are considered at higher risk require services to identify and address the support needs of this group and determine how prevention and early intervention can lower the risk for child abuse and neglect in this vulnerable group.

Adolescent Sexual Behaviors at Varying Levels of Substance Use Frequency

Science.gov (United States)

Floyd, Leah J.; Latimer, William

2010-01-01

Combining substance use and sex compounds the risk of contracting sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV. However, the association between substance use and sexual behaviors may vary by substance and sexual behavior. The current study sought to examine the relationship between alcohol and marijuana use frequency and specific sexual…

Research design considerations for chronic pain prevention clinical trials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gewandter, Jennifer S; Dworkin, Robert H; Turk, Dennis C

2015-01-01

Although certain risk factors can identify individuals who are most likely to develop chronic pain, few interventions to prevent chronic pain have been identified. To facilitate the identification of preventive interventions, an IMMPACT meeting was convened to discuss research design considerations...

Health incentive research and social justice: does the risk of long term harms to systematically disadvantaged groups bear consideration?

Science.gov (United States)

Wild, Verina; Pratt, Bridget

2017-03-01

The ethics of health incentive research-a form of public health research-are not well developed, and concerns of justice have been least examined. In this paper, we explore what potential long term harms in relation to justice may occur as a result of such research and whether they should be considered as part of its ethical evaluation. 'Long term harms' are defined as harms that contribute to existing systematic patterns of disadvantage for groups. Their effects are experienced on a long term basis, persisting even once an incentive research project ends. We will first establish that three categories of such harms potentially arise as a result of health incentive interventions. We then argue that the risk of these harms also constitutes a morally relevant consideration for health incentive research and suggest who may be responsible for assessing and mitigating these risks. We propose that responsibility should be assigned on the basis of who initiates health incentive research projects. Finally, we briefly describe possible strategies to prevent or mitigate the risk of long term harms to members of disadvantaged groups, which can be employed during the design, conduct and dissemination of research projects. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Systems considerations in seismic margin evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buttermer, D.R.

1987-01-01

Increasing knowledge in the geoscience field has led to the understanding that, although highly unlikely, it is possible for a nuclear power plant to be subjected to earthquake ground motion greater than that for which the plant was designed. While it is recognized that there are conservatisms inherent in current design practices, interest has developed in evaluating the seismic risk of operating plants. Several plant-specific seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) have been completed to address questions related to the seismic risk of a plant. The results from such SPRAs are quite informative, but such studies may entail a considerable amount of expensive analysis of large portions of the plant. As an alternative to an SPRA, it may be more practical to select an earthquake level above the design basis for which plant survivability is to be demonstrated. The principal question to be addressed in a seismic margin evaluation is: At what ground motion levels does one have a high confidence that the probability of seismically induced core damage is sufficiently low? In a seismic margin evaluation, an earthquake level is selected (based on site-specific geoscience considerations) for which a stable, long-term safe shutdown condition is to be demonstrated. This prespecified earthquake level is commonly referred to as the seismic margin earthquake (SME). The Electric Power Research Institute is currently supporting a research project to develop procedures for use by the utilities to allow them to perform nuclear plant seismic margin evaluations. This paper describes the systems-related aspects of these procedures

Considerations in Starting Climate Change Research

Science.gov (United States)

Long, J. C. S.; Morgan, G.; Hamburg, S.; Winickoff, D. E.

2014-12-01

Many have called for climate engineering research because the growing risks of climate change and the geopolitical and national security risks of climate remediation technologies are real. As the topic of climate engineering remains highly controversial, national funding agencies should evaluate even modest outdoor climate engineering research proposals with respect to societal, legal, and risk considerations in making a decision to fund or not to fund. These concerns will be extremely difficult to coordinate internationally if they are not first considered successfully on a national basis. Assessment of a suite of proposed research projects with respect to these considerations indicates we would learn valuable lessons about how to govern research by initiating a few exemplar projects. The first time an issue arrives it can be very helpful if it there are specific cases, not a broad class of projects. A good first case should be defensible and understandable, fit within the general mandate of existing research programs, have negligible physical risk, small physical scale and short duration. By focusing on a specific case, the discussion can be held with limits and help to establish some track record in dealing with a controversial subject and developing a process for assigning appropriate scrutiny and outreach. Even at an early stage, with low risk, small-scale experiments, obtaining broad-based advice will aid in dealing with the controversies. An independent advisory body can provide guidance about a wide spectrum of physical and social risks of funding the experiment compared to societal benefit of gaining understanding. Clearly identifying the research as climate engineering research avoids sending research down a path that might violate public trust and provide an important opportunity to grow governance and public engagement at an early stage. Climate engineering research should be seen in the context of all approaches to dealing with the climate problem

Does accessibility of positive and negative schema vary by child physical abuse risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Crouch, Julie L; Risser, Heather J; Skowronski, John J; Milner, Joel S; Farc, Magdalena M; Irwin, Lauren M

2010-11-01

To examine differences in accessibility of positive and negative schema in parents with high and low risk for child physical abuse (CPA). This study combined picture priming and lexical decision making methods to assess the accessibility of positive and negative words following presentation of child and adult faces. The child and adult faces depicted positive, ambiguous, and negative affective valences. The sample included 67 (51 low and 16 high CPA risk) general population parents. CPA risk status was associated with accessibility of positive/negative words only following priming with faces of the opposite affective valence. More specifically, high CPA risk parents were slower to respond to positive (negative) words following priming with negative (positive) faces. Exploratory analyses indicated that this pattern of findings was more clearly apparent when picture primes involved adult faces. The present findings suggest that high and low CPA risk parents differ in how they process affectively incongruent information. Research is needed to further examine schema accessibility, as well as to examine whether processes involved in attention and affect integration play a role in CPA risk. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The use of comparative risk assessment in decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chicken, J.C.; Hayns, M.R.; Tolley, B.

1989-01-01

This paper justifies: 1) Comparative risk assessment provides a way of establishing whether or not the risks associated with a novel proposal are likely to satisfy current norms. 2) Comparative risk assessment is an aid to decision making when for some reason there is inadequate quantitative data about the risks associated with a project. 3) One problem is that there is no single universally acceptable norm. Norms vary both with time and from activity to activity. The spread of acceptable norms spans at least two orders of magnitude. 4) For any comparative risk assessment to be considered more than a suggestion on how acceptable a risk is, the risks that are compared must be similar and located in similar cultural and geographical environments. 5) Ulitmately justification of the acceptability of a project must be based on data generated directly by the project itself and any opinion based on comparative evidence must be iteratively revised as direct hard evidence becomes available. 6) Comparative risk assessment has a useful role in presentations to the lay public about the acceptability of a particular risk. 7) There may be more problems in making a comparative assessment of risk acceptability in socio-political terms than in technical or economic terms. The central requirement that the comparison must be based on data from similar cultural backgrounds is often hard to satisfy in relation to socio-political considerations

Construction risks of nuclear power plants for use in cost-effectiveness considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bock-Werthmann, W.

1986-08-01

The construction risk study is concerned with a nuclear power station of 1300 MW(e) design output. The risk figures obtained demonstrate that construction risks of nuclear power plants form a substantial share of the total risk from all steps of the nuclear fuel cycle. When compared with other risk figures it is apparent that only the fatalities caused by the extraction of uranium are of similar magnitude. (55 references). (DG)

Analysis on Passivity for Uncertain Neural Networks with Time-Varying Delays

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. M. Kwon

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The problem of passivity analysis for neural networks with time-varying delays and parameter uncertainties is considered. By the consideration of newly constructed Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals, improved sufficient conditions to guarantee the passivity of the concerned networks are proposed with the framework of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs, which can be solved easily by various efficient convex optimization algorithms. The enhancement of the feasible region of the proposed criteria is shown via two numerical examples by the comparison of maximum allowable delay bounds.

Balancing risks and benefits fairly across generations: cost/benefit considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catron, B.L.

1994-01-01

This paper has been prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency Workshop on the environmental and ethical aspects of long-lived radioactive waste disposal. The workshop is intended as a step toward preparation of a collective opinion on deep geological storage of nuclear waste. As requested, this paper answers to the following specific questions : 1) Discounting of costs with time is a widely applied technique in the evaluation of the impact of economic and industrial decisions. Could or should discounting of long-term health risks due to radioactive waste disposal be envisaged? 2) Is it possible to assess what is passed on to future generations in terms of health risks, other detriments and possible benefits of all sorts, directly or indirectly? Should such an assessment be applied generically to human activities in a broad sense or should it concern only waste disposal issues? 3) How can the immediate needs of the current generations for example for energy generation or public health protection be balanced with inter generational equity requirements in the very long term? 4) Are resources devoted to assuring safety of radioactive waste disposal appropriately balanced with risks given that these resources could be applied to other societal goals? 5) Is it preferable to take all physical actions today to minimize any bequest of liabilities for waste management actions to future generations. If not how should financial assets be set aside to meet the liabilities? 6) What guidelines and principles should we follow to balance these risks? Does the proposition that we should not expose future generations to a risk that is not acceptable today appropriately address this issue? 7) Should measures of risk acceptability be considered in the context of individual rights or local rights or the collective rights of the population? 8) What measures are necessary in the siting of repositories to assure that disadvantaged populations do not bear disproportionate burdens? 9) Is

Considerations in using radiation dosimetry data in epidemiologic studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, D.H.; Beck, W.L.; Fry, S.A.; Lushbaugh, C.C.; Watson, J.

1983-01-01

From experience to date, it is concluded that cohorts can be divided into useable risk groups without need for extensive calculations of individual doses. Several possible risk group classification schemes are presented for use with standard methods of data analysis. The rationale, advantages, and disadvantages of each are discussed with respect to possible classification biases, and statistical and practical considerations. Data from a cohort of nuclear material workers are used to illustrate these dichotomous and ordinal schemes

Risk Assessment Considerations for Veterinary Medicines in Aquatic Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

This chapter provides a critical evaluation of prospective and retrospective risk assessment approaches for veterinary medicines in aquatic ecosystems and provides recommendations for possible alternative approaches for hazard characterization.

The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities

Science.gov (United States)

Wade E. Martin; Ingrid M. Martin; Brian Kent

2009-01-01

An important policy question receiving considerable attention concerns the risk perception-risk mitigation process that guides how individuals choose to address natural hazard risks. This question is considered in the context of wildfire. We analyze the factors that influence risk reduction behaviors by homeowners living in the wildland-urban interface. The factors...

Considerations on Risk in Supply Chain Management Information Systems Implementation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valentin-Petru Măzăreanu

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Innovation in information and communication technologies resulted in the digital revolution. This kind of revolution is changing the way people work, learn, communicate and manage their businesses. Due to the need to achieve the competitive advantage and to meet the business requirements, we are witnessing an increasing shift from business to e-business and mobile business. In this kind of world solutions like Supply Chain Management (SCM are increasingly appearing. The business success depends on how effective the information system works. Any interruption of the information system will inevitably lead to business loss. To ensure the successful implementation of a SCM project it is necessary to study even from the early stages which are the possible actions / risks / obstacles which might damage in one way or another the execution of the project. The role of the literature and case studies review in the field of interest is undeniable because it provides us with access to the so-called lessons-learned. By using this approach, in this paper, we present the most common risks and risk sources encountered in the implementation projects of SCM type information systems. We also propose a risk identification framework that can be used in the early stages of the implementation project of a Supply Chain Management information system.

Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petts, J.

1994-01-01

This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

Time Varying Market Integration and Expected Rteurns in Emerging Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Jong, F.C.J.M.; de Roon, F.A.

2001-01-01

We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market.The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value

Public Health and Epidemiological Considerations For Avian Influenza Risk Mapping and Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph P. Dudley

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Avian influenza viruses are now widely recognized as important threats to agricultural biosecurity and public health, and as the potential source for pandemic human influenza viruses. Human infections with avian influenza viruses have been reported from Asia (H5N1, H5N2, H9N2, Africa (H5N1, H10N7, Europe (H7N7, H7N3, H7N2, and North America (H7N3, H7N2, H11N9. Direct and indirect public health risks from avian influenzas are not restricted to the highly pathogenic H5N1 "bird flu" virus, and include low pathogenic as well as high pathogenic strains of other avian influenza virus subtypes, e.g., H1N1, H7N2, H7N3, H7N7, and H9N2. Research has shown that the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic was caused by an H1N1 influenza virus of avian origins, and during the past decade, fatal human disease and human-to-human transmission has been confirmed among persons infected with H5N1 and H7N7 avian influenza viruses. Our ability to accurately assess and map the potential economic and public health risks associated with avian influenza outbreaks is currently constrained by uncertainties regarding key aspects of the ecology and epidemiology of avian influenza viruses in birds and humans, and the mechanisms by which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses are transmitted between and among wild birds, domestic poultry, mammals, and humans. Key factors needing further investigation from a risk management perspective include identification of the driving forces behind the emergence and persistence of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses within poultry populations, and a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms regulating transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses between industrial poultry farms and backyard poultry flocks. More information is needed regarding the extent to which migratory bird populations to contribute to the transnational and transcontinental spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, and the potential for wild bird

Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Sensoy, Ahmet; Tabak, Benjamin M.

2015-10-01

This paper proposes a new efficiency index to model time-varying inefficiency in stock markets. We focus on European stock markets and show that they have different degrees of time-varying efficiency. We observe that the 2008 global financial crisis has an adverse effect on almost all EU stock markets. However, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis has a significant adverse effect only on the markets in France, Spain and Greece. For the late members, joining EU does not have a uniform effect on stock market efficiency. Our results have important implications for policy makers, investors, risk managers and academics.

Conflicting and complementary ethics of animal welfare considerations in reintroductions.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrington, Lauren A; Moehrenschlager, Axel; Gelling, Merryl; Atkinson, Rob P D; Hughes, Joelene; Macdonald, David W

2013-06-01

Despite differences in focus, goals, and strategies between conservation biology and animal welfare, both are inextricably linked in many ways, and greater consideration of animal welfare, although important in its own right, also has considerable potential to contribute to conservation success. Nevertheless, animal welfare and animal ethics are not always considered explicitly within conservation practice. We systematically reviewed the recent scientific peer-reviewed and online gray literature on reintroductions of captive-bred and wild-caught animals (mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles) to quantify the occurrence of animal welfare issues. We considered monitoring that could be indicative of the animal's welfare status and supportive management actions that could improve animal welfare (regardless of whether the aim was explicitly animal-welfare orientated). Potential welfare issues (of variable nature and extent) were recorded in 67% of 199 projects reviewed; the most common were mortality >50%, dispersal or loss of animals, disease, and human conflict. Most (>70%) projects monitored survival, 18% assessed body condition, and 2% monitored stress levels. Animal welfare, explicitly, was referred to in 6% of projects. Supportive actions, most commonly use of on-site prerelease pens and provision of supplemental food or water, were implemented in 79% of projects, although the extent and duration of support varied. Practitioners can address animal-welfare issues in reintroductions by considering the potential implications for individual animals at all stages of the release process using the decision tree presented. We urge practitioners to report potential animal-welfare issues, describe mitigation actions, and evaluate their efficacy to facilitate transparent evaluation of common moral dilemmas and to advance communal strategies for dealing with them. Currently, comparative mortality rates, health risks, postrelease stress, effectiveness of supportive measures

Time-varying betas and Cross-Sectional Return-Risk Relation: Evidence from the UK

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fraser, P; MacGregor, B.; Hoesli, M.; Hamelink, F.

2004-01-01

The seminal study by Fama and MacBeth in 1973 initiated a stream of papers testing for the cross-sectional relation between return and risk. The debate as to whether beta is a valid measure of risk was reanimated by Fama and French and subsequent studies. Rather than focusing on exogenous variables

Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Josip Arnerić

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.

A scheme to scientifically and accurately assess cadmium pollution of river sediments, through consideration of bioavailability when assessing ecological risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Zhixin; Tang, Wenzhong; Shan, Baoqing

2017-10-01

Evaluating heavy metal pollution status and ecological risk in river sediments is a complex task, requiring consideration of contaminant pollution levels, as well as effects of biological processes within the river system. There are currently no simple or low-cost approaches to heavy metal assessment in river sediments. Here, we introduce a system of assessment for pollution status of heavy metals in river sediments, using measurements of Cd in the Shaocun River sediments as a case study. This system can be used to identify high-risk zones of the river that should be given more attention. First, we evaluated the pollution status of Cd in the river sediments based on their total Cd content, and calculated a risk assessment, using local geochemical background values at various sites along the river. Using both acetic acid and ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid to extracted the fractions of Cd in sediments, and used DGT to evaluate the bioavailability of Cd. Thus, DGT provided a measure of potentially bioavailable concentrations of Cd concentrations in the sediments. Last, we measured Cd contents in plant tissue collected at the same site to compare with our other measures. A Pearson's correlation analysis showed that Cd-Plant correlated significantly with Cd-HAc, (r = 0.788, P < 0.01), Cd-EDTA (r = 0.925, P < 0.01), Cd-DGT (r = 0.976, P < 0.01), and Cd-Total (r = 0.635, P < 0.05). We demonstrate that this system of assessment is a useful means of assessing heavy metal pollution status and ecological risk in river sediments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reexamining financial and economic predictability with new estimators of realized variance and variance risk premium

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Casas, Isabel; Mao, Xiuping; Veiga, Helena

This study explores the predictive power of new estimators of the equity variance risk premium and conditional variance for future excess stock market returns, economic activity, and financial instability, both during and after the last global financial crisis. These estimators are obtained from...... time-varying coefficient models are the ones showing considerably higher predictive power for stock market returns and financial instability during the financial crisis, suggesting that an extreme volatility period requires models that can adapt quickly to turmoil........ Moreover, a comparison of the overall results reveals that the conditional variance gains predictive power during the global financial crisis period. Furthermore, both the variance risk premium and conditional variance are determined to be predictors of future financial instability, whereas conditional...

Alcohol in Moderation, Cardioprotection and Neuroprotection: Epidemiological Considerations and Mechanistic Studies

OpenAIRE

Collins, Michael A.; Neafsey, Edward J.; Mukamal, Kenneth J.; Gray, Mary O.; Parks, Dale A.; Das, Dipak K.; Korthuis, Ronald J.

2008-01-01

In contrast to many years of important research and clinical attention to the pathological effects of alcohol (ethanol) abuse, the past several decades have seen the publication of a number of peer-reviewed studies indicating beneficial effects of light-moderate, non-binge consumption of varied alcoholic beverages, as well as experimental demonstrations that moderate alcohol exposure can initiate typically cytoprotective mechanisms. A considerable body of epidemiology associates moderate alco...

Research design considerations for chronic pain prevention clinical trials: IMMPACT recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Gewandter, Jennifer S; Dworkin, Robert H; Turk, Dennis C; Farrar, John T; Fillingim, Roger B; Gilron, Ian; Markman, John D; Oaklander, Anne Louise; Polydefkis, Michael J; Raja, Srinivasa N; Robinson, James P; Woolf, Clifford J; Ziegler, Dan; Ashburn, Michael A; Burke, Laurie B; Cowan, Penney; George, Steven Z; Goli, Veeraindar; Graff, Ole X; Iyengar, Smriti; Jay, Gary W; Katz, Joel; Kehlet, Henrik; Kitt, Rachel A; Kopecky, Ernest A; Malamut, Richard; McDermott, Michael P; Palmer, Pamela; Rappaport, Bob A; Rauschkolb, Christine; Steigerwald, Ilona; Tobias, Jeffrey; Walco, Gary A

2015-07-01

Although certain risk factors can identify individuals who are most likely to develop chronic pain, few interventions to prevent chronic pain have been identified. To facilitate the identification of preventive interventions, an IMMPACT meeting was convened to discuss research design considerations for clinical trials investigating the prevention of chronic pain. We present general design considerations for prevention trials in populations that are at relatively high risk for developing chronic pain. Specific design considerations included subject identification, timing and duration of treatment, outcomes, timing of assessment, and adjusting for risk factors in the analyses. We provide a detailed examination of 4 models of chronic pain prevention (ie, chronic postsurgical pain, postherpetic neuralgia, chronic low back pain, and painful chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy). The issues discussed can, in many instances, be extrapolated to other chronic pain conditions. These examples were selected because they are representative models of primary and secondary prevention, reflect persistent pain resulting from multiple insults (ie, surgery, viral infection, injury, and toxic or noxious element exposure), and are chronically painful conditions that are treated with a range of interventions. Improvements in the design of chronic pain prevention trials could improve assay sensitivity and thus accelerate the identification of efficacious interventions. Such interventions would have the potential to reduce the prevalence of chronic pain in the population. Additionally, standardization of outcomes in prevention clinical trials will facilitate meta-analyses and systematic reviews and improve detection of preventive strategies emerging from clinical trials.

77 FR 11385 - Security Considerations for Lavatory Oxygen Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-27

... considerations for lavatory oxygen systems (77 FR 12550). The interim final rule addresses a security... and taken to restore the oxygen system with a design that would consider the security risk. Boeing... [Docket No. FAA-2011-0186; Amdt. Nos. 21-94, 25-133, 121-354, 129-50; SFAR 111] RIN 2120-AJ92 Security...

A study of risk evaluation methodology selection for the external hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuramoto, Takahiro; Yamaguchi, Akira; Narumiya, Yosiyuki

2014-01-01

Since the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, there has been growing demands for assessing the effects of external hazards, including natural events, such as earthquake and tsunami, and external human behaviors, and taking actions to address those external hazards. The newly established Japanese regulatory requirements claim design considerations associated with external hazards. The primary objective of the risk assessment for external hazards is to establish countermeasures against such hazards rather than grasping the risk figures. Therefore, applying detailed risk assessment methods, such as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), to all the external hazards is not always the most appropriate. Risk assessment methods can vary in types including qualitative evaluation, hazard analysis (analyzing hazard frequencies or their influence), and margin assessment. To resolve these issues, a process has been established that enables us to identify the external hazards in a comprehensive and systematic manner, which have potential risks leading to core damage and to select an appropriate evaluation method according to the risks associated with each of the external hazards. This paper discusses the comprehensive and systematic identification process for the external hazards which have potential risks leading to core damage, and the approaches of selecting an appropriate evaluation method for each external hazard. This paper also describes some applications of specific risk evaluation methods. (author)

Human Health and Performance Considerations for Exploration of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEA)

Science.gov (United States)

Steinberg, Susan L.; Kundrot, Craig; Charles, John B.

2011-01-01

This poster paper reviews the Astronaut health and performance issues for a Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) mission. Risks and other considerations are grouped into four categories and they are characterized for criticality.

Assessing Risks to Wildlife Populations from Multiple Stressors: Overview of the Problem and Research Needs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wayne R. Munns, Jr.

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Wildlife populations are experiencing increasing pressure from human-induced changes in the landscape. Stressors including agricultural and urban land use, introduced invasive and exotic species, nutrient enrichment, direct human disturbance, and toxic chemicals directly or indirectly influence the quality and quantity of habitat used by terrestrial and aquatic wildlife. Governmental agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are required to assess risks to wildlife populations, in its broadest definition, that result from exposure to these stressors, yet considerable uncertainty exists with respect to how such assessments should be conducted. This uncertainty is compounded by questions concerning the interactive effects of co-occurring stressors, appropriate spatial scales of analysis, extrapolation of response data among species and from organisms to populations, and imperfect knowledge and use of limited data sets. Further, different risk problems require varying degrees of sophistication, methodological refinement, and data quality. These issues suggest a number of research needs to improve methods for wildlife risk assessments, including continued development of population dynamics models to evaluate the effects of multiple stressors at varying spatial scales, methods for extrapolating across endpoints and species with reasonable confidence, stressor-response relations and methods for combining them in predictive and diagnostic assessments, and accessible data sets describing the ecology of terrestrial and aquatic species. Case study application of models and methods for assessing wildlife risk will help to demonstrate their strengths and limitations for solving particular risk problems.

Employer Requirements to Work during Emergency Responses: Key Ethics Considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Rutkow, Lainie; Taylor, Holly A; Powell, Tia

2017-03-01

Local health departments and their employees are at the forefront of emergency preparedness and response. Yet, recent studies have found that some local public health workers are unwilling to report to work in a variety of disaster scenarios. This can greatly compromise a response, as many local health departments need "all hands on deck" to effectively meet increased demands. To address these concerns, local health departments have employed varied policy strategies to ensure that employees do report to work. After describing different approaches taken by local health departments throughout the United States, we briefly identify and explore key ethics considerations that arise for local health departments when employees are required to report to work for emergency responses. We then discuss how these ethics considerations may inform local health department practices intended to promote a robust emergency response.

Varying occurrence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase bacteria among three produce types

KAUST Repository

Toh, Benjamin E. W.

2017-07-07

A monitoring effort that spanned across 1.5 years was conducted to examine three types of produce-associated microbiota. The average amount of antibiotic-resistant bacteria recovered from lettuce, tomato, and cucumber was 1.02 × 1010, 2.05 × 107, and 4.78 × 109 cells per 50 g of each produce, respectively. A total of 480 bacterial isolates were obtained and identified from their 16S rRNA genes, revealing isolates that were ubiquitously recovered from all three types of produce. However, sporadic presence of Klebsiella pneumoniae and Acinetobacter baumannii was detected on lettuce and cucumbers but not tomatoes. End-point PCR revealed that the K. pneumoniae and A. baumannii isolates were positive for genes encoding extended spectrum beta-lactamase. Whole genome sequencing of two of the K. pneumoniae isolates further suggested the presence of the blaCTX-M-15 gene in a conjugative plasmid, as well as other antibiotic resistance genes and virulence-associated traits in either conjugative plasmids or the chromosomal genome. Quantitative microbial risk assessment indicated varying levels of ingestion risk associated with different types of produce. In particular, the risk arising from ESBL-positive K. pneumoniae in lettuce, but not in cucumbers or tomatoes, was higher than the acceptable annual risk of 10−4. Practical applications Three types of vegetables were sampled and evaluated over 1.5 years to determine differences in their associated bacterial isolates. Particular emphasis was placed on identifying pathogenic strains that were positive for extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL). Quantitative estimates of the microbial risk associated with the ESBL-positive pathogens showed that different produce types may incur varying levels of ingestion risk. Most of the currently reported ESBL-positive bacterial isolates have been identified in nosocomial environments. However, the carriage of such drug-resistant bacteria in vegetables suggests a possible connection

CONSIDERATIONS IN UTILIZING BY-PRODUCT CARBOHYDRATES IN RUMINANT NUTRITION

Science.gov (United States)

By-product feeds provide a variety of carbohydrates that can vary greatly in their content, digestibility, and physical effects. Variation in the composition and quality of by-product feeds needs to be evaluated to assess whether the variation poses an acceptable risk for inclusion of small or larg...

Environmental approvals in New Brunswick : economic considerations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marrack, C.; Maitland, R. [Suez Renewable Energy North America, Houston, TX (United States)

2008-07-01

This presentation provided a timeline of economic considerations related to New Brunswick's regulatory approval process for wind power developments. The economics of wind power projects require careful consideration during the initial planning phases, as it is not yet known if projects are viable. Spending in the early stages of a project should therefore be limited to items that focus on components of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) process that include establishing a relationship with First Nations groups in the area, and conducting seasonal bird studies. Economic considerations change when project viability is confirmed, and developers can then progress to conducting traditional knowledge studies and further seasonal bird studies. Baseline information studies should be reviewed, and biophysical surveys should involve the identification of any wetlands, sensitive areas, and rare plants. Archaeology studies are also required by the provincial government, as well as bat studies to determine if the site has a resident population of bats. Public and stakeholder consultations and open houses should then be held with an adequate time-frame for the submission of questions and concerns and the development of mitigation strategies. Project viability should be confirmed before power purchase agreements (PPAs) are signed. After PPAs are signed, the largest economic consideration is the schedule-related risk associated with legal and financial problems. It was concluded that noise impact, visual impact, and socioeconomic assessments and studies can be conducted after the PPA is secured. tabs., figs.

Hydrologic Extremes and Risk Assessment under Non-stationarity

Science.gov (United States)

Mondal, A.

2015-12-01

In the context of hydrologic designs, robust assessment and communication of risk is crucial to ascertain a sustainable water future. Traditional methods for defining return period, risk or reliability assumes a stationary regime which may no longer be valid because of natural or man-made changes. Reformulations are suggested in recent literature to account for non-stationarity in the definition of hydrologic risk, as time evolves. This study presents a comparative analysis of design levels under non-stationarity based on time varying annual exceedance probabilities, waiting time of a hazardous event, number of hazardous events and probability of failure. A case study application is shown for peak streamflow in the flood-prone delta area of the Krishna River in India where an increasing trend in annual maximum flows are observed owing to persistent silting. Considerable disagreement is found between the design magnitudes of flood obtained by the different definitions of hydrologic risk. Such risk is also found to be highly sensitive to the assumed design life period and projections of trend in that period or beyond. Additionally, some critical points on the assumption of a deterministic non-stationary model for an observed natural process are also discussed. The findings highlight the necessity for a unifying framework for assessment and communication of hydrologic risk under transient hydro-climatic conditions. The concepts can also be extended to other applications such as regional hydrologic frequency analysis or development of precipitation intensity-duration-frequency relationships for infrastructure design.

Omalizumab: Practical considerations regarding the risk of anaphylaxis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kim Harold L

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Omalizumab has demonstrated efficacy among patients with moderate to severe persistent allergic asthma, whose symptoms are inadequately controlled with other controller agents. This therapy is generally well tolerated, but there are some safety considerations, the most important of which is the rare, but potentially life-threatening, occurrence of omalizumab-associated anaphylaxis. In Canada, data from the manufacturer of omalizumab indicate that the frequency of anaphylaxis attributed to Xolair in post-marketing use is approximately 0.2%. Other researchers, including the American Omalizumab Joint Task Force (OJTF, have suggested a lower overall frequency of 0.09%. This paper provides a summary of the epidemiologic research carried out to date and presents a concise, practical set of recommendations for the prevention, monitoring and management of omalizumab-associated anaphylaxis. Prevention tips include advice on patient education measures, concomitant medications and optimal administration. For the first three injections, the recommendation is to monitor in clinic for two hours after the omalizumab injection; for subsequent injections, the monitoring period should be 30 minutes or an appropriate time agreed upon by the individual patient and healthcare professional. In the event that a patient does experience omalizumab-associated anaphylaxis, the paper provides recommendations for handling the situation in-clinic and recommendations on how to counsel patients to recognize the potential signs and symptoms in the community and react appropriately.

EVA Physiology and Medical Considerations Working in the Suit

Science.gov (United States)

Parazynski, Scott

2012-01-01

This "EVA Physiology and Medical Considerations Working in the Suit" presentation covers several topics related to the medical implications and physiological effects of suited operations in space from the perspective of a physician with considerable first-hand Extravehicular Activity (EVA) experience. Key themes include EVA physiology working in a pressure suit in the vacuum of space, basic EVA life support and work support, Thermal Protection System (TPS) inspections and repairs, and discussions of the physical challenges of an EVA. Parazynski covers the common injuries and significant risks during EVAs, as well as physical training required to prepare for EVAs. He also shares overall suit physiological and medical knowledge with the next generation of Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) system designers.

Performance improvement of ERP-based brain-computer interface via varied geometric patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Zheng; Qiu, Tianshuang

2017-12-01

Recently, many studies have been focusing on optimizing the stimulus of an event-related potential (ERP)-based brain-computer interface (BCI). However, little is known about the effectiveness when increasing the stimulus unpredictability. We investigated a new stimulus type of varied geometric pattern where both complexity and unpredictability of the stimulus are increased. The proposed and classical paradigms were compared in within-subject experiments with 16 healthy participants. Results showed that the BCI performance was significantly improved for the proposed paradigm, with an average online written symbol rate increasing by 138% comparing with that of the classical paradigm. Amplitudes of primary ERP components, such as N1, P2a, P2b, N2, were also found to be significantly enhanced with the proposed paradigm. In this paper, a novel ERP BCI paradigm with a new stimulus type of varied geometric pattern is proposed. By jointly increasing the complexity and unpredictability of the stimulus, the performance of an ERP BCI could be considerably improved.

Stagewise pseudo-value regression for time-varying effects on the cumulative incidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zöller, Daniela; Schmidtmann, Irene; Weinmann, Arndt

2016-01-01

In a competing risks setting, the cumulative incidence of an event of interest describes the absolute risk for this event as a function of time. For regression analysis, one can either choose to model all competing events by separate cause-specific hazard models or directly model the association...... for time-varying effects. This is implemented by coupling variable selection between the grid times, but determining estimates separately. The effect estimates are regularized to also allow for model fitting with a low to moderate number of observations. This technique is illustrated in an application...

Ecomorphology and phylogenetic risk: Implications for habitat reconstruction using fossil bovids.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Robert S; Barr, W Andrew

2014-08-01

Reconstructions of paleohabitats are necessary aids in understanding hominin evolution. The morphology of species from relevant sites, understood in terms of functional relationships to habitat (termed ecomorphology), offers a direct link to habitat. Bovids are a speciose radiation that includes many habitat specialists and are abundant in the fossil record. Thus, bovids are extremely common in ecomorphological analyses. However, bovid phylogeny and habitat preference are related, which raises the possibility that analyses linking habitat with morphology are not 'taxon free' but 'taxon-dependent.' Here we analyze eight relative dimensions and one shape index of the metatarsal for a sample of 72 bovid species and one antilocaprid. The selected variables have been previously shown to have strong associations with habitat and to have functional explanations for these associations. Phylogenetic generalized least squares analyses of these variables, including habitat and size, resulted in estimates for the parameter lambda (used to model phylogenetic signal) varying from zero to one. Thus, while phylogeny, morphology, and habitat all march together among the bovids, the odds that phylogeny confounds ecomorphological analyses may vary depending on particular morphological characteristics. While large values of lambda do not necessarily indicate that habitat differences are unimportant drivers of morphology, we consider the low value of lambda for relative metatarsal width suggestive that conclusions about habitat built on observations of this particular morphology carry with them less 'phylogenetic risk.' We suggest that the way forward for ecomorphology is grounded in functionally relevant observations and careful consideration of phylogeny designed to bracket probable habitat preferences appropriately. Separate consideration of different morphological variables may help to determine the level of 'phylogenetic risk' attached to conclusions linking habitat and morphology

Consideration of uncertainties in CCDF risk curves in safety oriented decision making processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, E.; Tadmor, J.

1988-01-01

In recent years, some of the results of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (i.e. the magnitudes of the various adverse health effects and other effects of potential accidents in nuclear power plants) have usually been presented in Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function curves, widely known as CCDF risk curves. CCDF curves are characteristic of probabilistic accident analyses and consequence calculations, although, in many cases, the codes producing the CCDF curves consist of a mixture of both probabilistic and deterministic calculations. One of the main difficulties in the process of PRA is the problem of uncertainties associated with the risk assessments. The uncertainties, as expressed in CCDF risk curves can be classified into two main categories: (a) uncertainties expressed by the CCDF risk curve itself due to its probabilistic nature and - (b) the uncertainty band of CCDF risk curves. The band consists of a ''family of CCDF curves'' which represents the risks (e.g. early/late fatalities) evaluated at various levels of confidence for a specific Plant-Site Combination (PSC) i.e. a certain nuclear power plant located at a certain site. The reasons why a family of curves rather than a single curve represents the risk of a certain PSC have been discussed. Generally, the uncertainty band of CCDF curves is limited by the 95% (''conservative'') and the 5% curves. In most cases the 50% (median, ''best estimate'') curve is also shown because scientists tend to believe that it represents the ''realistic'' (or real) risk of the plant

Modeling Crossing Behavior of Drivers at Unsignalized Intersections with Consideration of Risk Perception

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liu Miaomiao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Drivers’ risk perception is vital to driving behavior and traffic safety. In the dynamic interaction of a driver-vehicle-environment system, drivers’ risk perception changes dynamically. This study focused on drivers’ risk perception at unsignalized intersections in China and analyzed drivers’ crossing behavior. Based on cognitive psychology theory and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, quantitative models of drivers’ risk perception were established for the crossing processes between two straight-moving vehicles from the orthogonal direction. The acceptable risk perception levels of drivers were identified using a self-developed data analysis method. Based on game theory, the relationship among the quantitative value of drivers’ risk perception, acceptable risk perception level, and vehicle motion state was analyzed. The models of drivers’ crossing behavior were then established. Finally, the behavior models were validated using data collected from real-world vehicle movements and driver decisions. The results showed that the developed behavior models had both high accuracy and good applicability. This study would provide theoretical and algorithmic references for the microscopic simulation and active safety control system of vehicles.

Risk assessment of titanium dioxide nanoparticles via oral exposure, including toxicokinetic considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Heringa, Minne B; Geraets, Liesbeth; van Eijkeren, Jan C H; Vandebriel, Rob J; de Jong, Wim H; Oomen, Agnes G

2016-12-01

Titanium dioxide white pigment consists of particles of various sizes, from which a fraction is in the nano range (food as additive E 171 as well as in other products, such as food supplements and toothpaste. Here, we assessed whether a human health risk can be expected from oral ingestion of these titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO 2 NPs), based on currently available information. Human health risks were assessed using two different approaches: Approach 1, based on intake, i.e. external doses, and Approach 2, based on internal organ concentrations using a kinetic model in order to account for accumulation over time (the preferred approach). Results showed that with Approach 1, a human health risk is not expected for effects in liver and spleen, but a human health risk cannot be excluded for effects on the ovaries. When based on organ concentrations by including the toxicokinetics of TiO 2 NPs (Approach 2), a potential risk for liver, ovaries and testes is found. This difference between the two approaches shows the importance of including toxicokinetic information. The currently estimated risk can be influenced by factors such as absorption, form of TiO 2 , particle fraction, particle size and physico-chemical properties in relation to toxicity, among others. Analysis of actual particle concentrations in human organs, as well as organ concentrations and effects in liver and the reproductive system after chronic exposure to well-characterized TiO 2 (NPs) in animals are recommended to refine this assessment.

Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

2016-09-01

Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

Science.gov (United States)

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Societal perspectives on risk awareness and risk competence.

Science.gov (United States)

Koller, Michael; Hoffrage, Ulrich

2015-01-01

Medical risks can be assessed by objectifiable therapeutic features; however, these risks are also characterised to a considerable degree by individual and social values. People tend to strive towards both freedom as well as safety; in a medical context, these two aims are taken into account by shared decision-making models and by stricter regulations in the pharmaceutical sector. Media reports on medical risks are caught between providing information and economic interests, and this conflict particularly complicates rational discussions about unexpected risks (for instance, in the field of natural medicine). Thus, it is necessary to create the type of information culture which allows differentiating between real and less pronounced risks.

Towards Improved Considerations of Risk in Seismic Design (Plinius Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan, T. J.

2012-04-01

The aftermath of recent earthquakes is a reminder that seismic risk is a very relevant issue for our communities. Implicit within the seismic design standards currently in place around the world is that minimum acceptable levels of seismic risk will be ensured through design in accordance with the codes. All the same, none of the design standards specify what the minimum acceptable level of seismic risk actually is. Instead, a series of deterministic limit states are set which engineers then demonstrate are satisfied for their structure, typically through the use of elastic dynamic analyses adjusted to account for non-linear response using a set of empirical correction factors. From the early nineties the seismic engineering community has begun to recognise numerous fundamental shortcomings with such seismic design procedures in modern codes. Deficiencies include the use of elastic dynamic analysis for the prediction of inelastic force distributions, the assignment of uniform behaviour factors for structural typologies irrespective of the structural proportions and expected deformation demands, and the assumption that hysteretic properties of a structure do not affect the seismic displacement demands, amongst other things. In light of this a number of possibilities have emerged for improved control of risk through seismic design, with several innovative displacement-based seismic design methods now well developed. For a specific seismic design intensity, such methods provide a more rational means of controlling the response of a structure to satisfy performance limit states. While the development of such methodologies does mark a significant step forward for the control of seismic risk, they do not, on their own, identify the seismic risk of a newly designed structure. In the U.S. a rather elaborate performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework is under development, with the aim of providing seismic loss estimates for new buildings. The PBEE framework

Evidence-based risk assessment and communication: a new global dengue-risk map for travellers and clinicians.

Science.gov (United States)

Jentes, Emily S; Lash, R Ryan; Johansson, Michael A; Sharp, Tyler M; Henry, Ronnie; Brady, Oliver J; Sotir, Mark J; Hay, Simon I; Margolis, Harold S; Brunette, Gary W

2016-06-01

International travel can expose travellers to pathogens not commonly found in their countries of residence, like dengue virus. Travellers and the clinicians who advise and treat them have unique needs for understanding the geographic extent of risk for dengue. Specifically, they should assess the need for prevention measures before travel and ensure appropriate treatment of illness post-travel. Previous dengue-risk maps published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Yellow Book lacked specificity, as there was a binary (risk, no risk) classification. We developed a process to compile evidence, evaluate it and apply more informative risk classifications. We collected more than 839 observations from official reports, ProMED reports and published scientific research for the period 2005-2014. We classified each location as frequent/continuous risk if there was evidence of more than 10 dengue cases in at least three of the previous 10 years. For locations that did not fit this criterion, we classified locations as sporadic/uncertain risk if the location had evidence of at least one locally acquired dengue case during the last 10 years. We used expert opinion in limited instances to augment available data in areas where data were sparse. Initial categorizations classified 134 areas as frequent/continuous and 140 areas as sporadic/uncertain. CDC subject matter experts reviewed all initial frequent/continuous and sporadic/uncertain categorizations and the previously uncategorized areas. From this review, most categorizations stayed the same; however, 11 categorizations changed from the initial determinations. These new risk classifications enable detailed consideration of dengue risk, with clearer meaning and a direct link to the evidence that supports the specific classification. Since many infectious diseases have dynamic risk, strong geographical heterogeneities and varying data quality and availability, using this approach for other diseases can

Review of specific radiological accident considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elder, J.

1984-01-01

Specific points of guidance provided in the forthcoming document A Guide to Radiological Accident Considerations for Siting and Design of Nonreactor Nuclear Facilities are discussed. Of these, the following are considered of particular interest to analysts of hypothetical accidents: onsite dose limits; population dose, public health effects, and environmental contamination as accident consequences which should be addressed; risk analysis; natural phenomena as accident initiators; recommended dose models; multiple organ equivalent dose; and recommended methods and parameters for source terms and release amount calculations. Comments are being invited on this document, which is undergoing rewrite after the first stage of peer review

Criticality safety and facility design considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waltz, W.R.

1991-06-01

Operations with fissile material introduce the risk of a criticality accident that may be lethal to nearby personnel. In addition, concerns over criticality safety can result in substantial delays and shutdown of facility operations. For these reasons, it is clear that the prevention of a nuclear criticality accident should play a major role in the design of a nuclear facility. The emphasis of this report will be placed on engineering design considerations in the prevention of criticality. The discussion will not include other important aspects, such as the physics of calculating limits nor criticality alarm systems

Principle considerations for the risk assessment of sprayed consumer products.

Science.gov (United States)

Steiling, W; Bascompta, M; Carthew, P; Catalano, G; Corea, N; D'Haese, A; Jackson, P; Kromidas, L; Meurice, P; Rothe, H; Singal, M

2014-05-16

In recent years, the official regulation of chemicals and chemical products has been intensified. Explicitly for spray products enhanced requirements to assess the consumers'/professionals' exposure to such product type have been introduced. In this regard the Aerosol-Dispensers-Directive (75/324/EEC) with obligation for marketing aerosol dispensers, and the Cosmetic-Products-Regulation (1223/2009/EC) which obliges the insurance of a safety assessment, have to be mentioned. Both enactments, similar to the REACH regulation (1907/2006/EC), require a robust chemical safety assessment. From such assessment, appropriate risk management measures may be identified to adequately control the risk of these chemicals/products to human health and the environment when used. Currently, the above-mentioned regulations lack the guidance on which data are needed for preparing a proper hazard analysis and safety assessment of spray products. Mandatory in the process of inhalation risk and safety assessment is the determination and quantification of the actual exposure to the spray product and more specifically, its ingredients. In this respect the current article, prepared by the European Aerosol Federation (FEA, Brussels) task force "Inhalation Toxicology", intends to introduce toxicological principles and the state of the art in currently available exposure models adapted for typical application scenarios. This review on current methodologies is intended to guide safety assessors to better estimate inhalation exposure by using the most relevant data. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Credit risk transfer

OpenAIRE

Bank for International Settlements

2003-01-01

Executive summary Techniques for transferring credit risk, such as financial guarantees and credit insurance, have been a long-standing feature of financial markets. In the past few years, however, the range of credit risk transfer (CRT) instruments and the circumstances in which they are used have widened considerably. A number of factors have contributed to this growth, including: greater focus by banks and other financial institutions on risk management; a more rigorous approach to risk/re...

Time-varying disaster risk models: An empirical assessment of the Rietz-Barro hypothesis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Irarrazabal, Alfonso; Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos

This paper revisits the fit of disaster risk models where a representative agent has recursive preferences and the probability of a macroeconomic disaster changes over time. We calibrate the model as in Wachter (2013) and perform two sets of tests to assess the empirical performance of the model ...... and hence to reduce the Sharpe Ratio, a lower elasticity of substitution generates a more reasonable level for the equity risk premium and for the volatility of the government bond returns without compromising the ability of the price-dividend ratio to predict excess returns....

Risk allocation under liquidity constraints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Csóka, P.; Herings, P.J.J.

2013-01-01

Risk allocation games are cooperative games that are used to attribute the risk of a financial entity to its divisions. In this paper, we extend the literature on risk allocation games by incorporating liquidity considerations. A liquidity policy specifies state-dependent liquidity requirements that

Considerations about noise aspects in the EEC draft directive physical agents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Passchier-Vermeer, W.

1992-01-01

This report contains an overview of and considerations about the Working Draft of a future EEC Directive Physical Agents (draft 1991). The overview in this report is limited to noise exposure. The Draft gives minimum regulations concerning the protection of workers and prevention against the risks

Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gatzert, Nadine; Vogl, Nikolai

2016-01-01

The considerable amount of required infrastructure and renewable energy investments expected in the forthcoming years also implies an increasingly relevant contribution of private and institutional investors. In this context, especially regulatory and policy risks have been shown to play a major role for investors when evaluating investments in renewable energy and should thus also be taken into account in risk assessment and when deriving risk-return profiles. In this paper, we provide a stochastic model framework to quantify policy risks associated with renewable energy investments (e.g. a retrospective reduction of a feed-in tariff), thereby also taking into account energy price risk, resource risk, and inflation risk. The model is illustrated by means of simulations and scenario analyses, and it makes use of expert estimates and fuzzy set theory for quantifying policy risks. Our numerical results for a portfolio of onshore wind farms in Germany and France show that policy risk can strongly impact risk-return profiles, and that cross-country diversification effects can considerably decrease the overall risk for investors. - Highlights: •Quantification of policy risks associated with renewable energy investments. •Results emphasize that policy risk has a major impact on risk and return. •Study of the cross-country diversification potential. •Cross-country diversification can considerably decrease the risk for an investor.

Responses to high-fat challenges varying in fat type in subjects with different metabolic risk phenotypes: a randomized trial.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Susan J van Dijk

Full Text Available The ability of subjects to respond to nutritional challenges can reflect the flexibility of their biological system. Nutritional challenge tests could be used as an indicator of health status but more knowledge on metabolic and immune responses of different subjects to nutritional challenges is needed. The aim of this study was to compare the responses to high-fat challenges varying in fat type in subjects with different metabolic risk phenotypes.In a cross-over design 42 men (age 50-70 y consumed three high-fat shakes containing saturated fat (SFA, monounsaturated fat (MUFA or n-3 polyunsaturated (PUFA. Men were selected on BMI and health status (lean, obese or obese diabetic and phenotyped with MRI for adipose tissue distribution. Before and 2 and 4 h after shake consumption blood was drawn for measurement of expression of metabolic and inflammation-related genes in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs, plasma triglycerides (TAG, glucose, insulin, cytokines and ex vivo PBMC immune response capacity. The MUFA and n-3 PUFA challenge, compared to the SFA challenge, induced higher changes in expression of inflammation genes MCP1 and IL1β in PBMCs. Obese and obese diabetic subjects had different PBMC gene expression and metabolic responses to high-fat challenges compared to lean subjects. The MUFA challenge induced the most pronounced TAG response, mainly in obese and obese diabetic subjects.The PBMC gene expression response and metabolic response to high-fat challenges were affected by fat type and metabolic risk phenotype. Based on our results we suggest using a MUFA challenge to reveal differences in response capacity of subjects.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00977262.

Ethical considerations in stem cell research on neurologic and orthopedic conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Banja, John Dennis

2015-04-01

The range and gravity of ethical considerations in stem cell research are remarkable and, quite possibly, unprecedented. From the point of securing stem cells for implantation, through the translational and first-in-humans process, and then proceeding through clinical trials culminating in product or service line launch, the entire research trajectory is replete with risk, uncertainty, and problems overweighing foreseeable harms against hoped-for benefits. This article offers an overview of some of the most salient ethical challenges of stem cell research, including ones involving moral status, the intersection of research risks and informed consent processes, methodologic considerations in early phase 1 trials, the temptation to exaggerate the benefits of research discoveries, managing conflicts of interest, and the ethical obligation to conduct various monitoring practices throughout a trial, which could last years. The article will conclude with a glimpse into the future of these technologies wherein the need for ethical scrutiny will likely not diminish. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Behavioral Emergencies: Special Considerations in the Geriatric Psychiatric Patient.

Science.gov (United States)

Aftab, Awais; Shah, Asim A

2017-09-01

This article reviews psychiatric considerations and common psychiatric emergencies in the elderly. The elderly are vulnerable to medication side-effects because of pharmacokinetic changes from aging, and require lower doses and slower titration. They are a high-risk group for suicide, with more serious intent, fewer warning signs, and more lethality. Prompt diagnosis and treatment of delirium in emergency settings is essential, given association with worse outcomes when undiagnosed. Pharmacologic options with demonstrable efficacy for agitation in dementia are limited to antipsychotics, which are, however, associated with an increased risk of mortality; behavioral interventions are universally recommended as first-line measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biotechnological uses of RNAi in plants: risk assessment considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Casacuberta, Josep M; Devos, Yann; du Jardin, Patrick; Ramon, Matthew; Vaucheret, Hervé; Nogué, Fabien

2015-03-01

RNAi offers opportunities to generate new traits in genetically modified (GM) plants. Instead of expressing novel proteins, RNAi-based GM plants reduce target gene expression. Silencing of off-target genes may trigger unintended effects, and identifying these genes would facilitate risk assessment. However, using bioinformatics alone is not reliable, due to the lack of genomic data and insufficient knowledge of mechanisms governing mRNA-small (s)RNA interactions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Debunking vaccination myths: strong risk negations can increase perceived vaccination risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Betsch, Cornelia; Sachse, Katharina

2013-02-01

Information about risks is often contradictory, especially in the health domain. A vast amount of bizarre information on vaccine-adverse events (VAE) can be found on the Internet; most are posted by antivaccination activists. Several actors in the health sector struggle against these statements by negating claimed risks with scientific explanations. The goal of the present work is to find optimal ways of negating risk to decrease risk perceptions. In two online experiments, we varied the extremity of risk negations and their source. Perception of the probability of VAE, their expected severity (both variables serve as indicators of perceived risk), and vaccination intentions. Paradoxically, messages strongly indicating that there is "no risk" led to a higher perceived vaccination risk than weak negations. This finding extends previous work on the negativity bias, which has shown that information stating the presence of risk decreases risk perceptions, while information negating the existence of risk increases such perceptions. Several moderators were also tested; however, the effect occurred independently of the number of negations, recipient involvement, and attitude. Solely the credibility of the information source interacted with the extremity of risk negation: For credible sources (governmental institutions), strong and weak risk negations lead to similar perceived risk, while for less credible sources (pharmaceutical industries) weak negations lead to less perceived risk than strong negations. Optimal risk negation may profit from moderate rather than extreme formulations as a source's trustworthiness can vary.

Extensions of the Rosner-Colditz breast cancer prediction model to include older women and type-specific predicted risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Glynn, Robert J; Colditz, Graham A; Tamimi, Rulla M; Chen, Wendy Y; Hankinson, Susan E; Willett, Walter W; Rosner, Bernard

2017-08-01

A breast cancer risk prediction rule previously developed by Rosner and Colditz has reasonable predictive ability. We developed a re-fitted version of this model, based on more than twice as many cases now including women up to age 85, and further extended it to a model that distinguished risk factor prediction of tumors with different estrogen/progesterone receptor status. We compared the calibration and discriminatory ability of the original, the re-fitted, and the type-specific models. Evaluation used data from the Nurses' Health Study during the period 1980-2008, when 4384 incident invasive breast cancers occurred over 1.5 million person-years. Model development used two-thirds of study subjects and validation used one-third. Predicted risks in the validation sample from the original and re-fitted models were highly correlated (ρ = 0.93), but several parameters, notably those related to use of menopausal hormone therapy and age, had different estimates. The re-fitted model was well-calibrated and had an overall C-statistic of 0.65. The extended, type-specific model identified several risk factors with varying associations with occurrence of tumors of different receptor status. However, this extended model relative to the prediction of any breast cancer did not meaningfully reclassify women who developed breast cancer to higher risk categories, nor women remaining cancer free to lower risk categories. The re-fitted Rosner-Colditz model has applicability to risk prediction in women up to age 85, and its discrimination is not improved by consideration of varying associations across tumor subtypes.

Alcohol in moderation, cardioprotection, and neuroprotection: epidemiological considerations and mechanistic studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Michael A; Neafsey, Edward J; Mukamal, Kenneth J; Gray, Mary O; Parks, Dale A; Das, Dipak K; Korthuis, Ronald J

2009-02-01

In contrast to many years of important research and clinical attention to the pathological effects of alcohol (ethanol) abuse, the past several decades have seen the publication of a number of peer-reviewed studies indicating the beneficial effects of light-moderate, nonbinge consumption of varied alcoholic beverages, as well as experimental demonstrations that moderate alcohol exposure can initiate typically cytoprotective mechanisms. A considerable body of epidemiology associates moderate alcohol consumption with significantly reduced risks of coronary heart disease and, albeit currently a less robust relationship, cerebrovascular (ischemic) stroke. Experimental studies with experimental rodent models and cultures (cardiac myocytes, endothelial cells) indicate that moderate alcohol exposure can promote anti-inflammatory processes involving adenosine receptors, protein kinase C (PKC), nitric oxide synthase, heat shock proteins, and others which could underlie cardioprotection. Also, brain functional comparisons between older moderate alcohol consumers and nondrinkers have received more recent epidemiological study. In over half of nearly 45 reports since the early 1990s, significantly reduced risks of cognitive loss or dementia in moderate, nonbinge consumers of alcohol (wine, beer, liquor) have been observed, whereas increased risk has been seen only in a few studies. Physiological explanations for the apparent CNS benefits of moderate consumption have invoked alcohol's cardiovascular and/or hematological effects, but there is also experimental evidence that moderate alcohol levels can exert direct "neuroprotective" actions-pertinent are several studies in vivo and rat brain organotypic cultures, in which antecedent or preconditioning exposure to moderate alcohol neuroprotects against ischemia, endotoxin, beta-amyloid, a toxic protein intimately associated with Alzheimer's, or gp120, the neuroinflammatory HIV-1 envelope protein. The alcohol

Varying occurrence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase bacteria among three produce types

KAUST Repository

Toh, Benjamin E. W.; Bokhari, Osama Mohammed; Kutbi, Abdullah; Haroon, Mohamed; Mantilla-Calderon, David; Zowawi, Hosam; Hong, Pei-Ying

2017-01-01

Three types of vegetables were sampled and evaluated over 1.5 years to determine differences in their associated bacterial isolates. Particular emphasis was placed on identifying pathogenic strains that were positive for extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL). Quantitative estimates of the microbial risk associated with the ESBL-positive pathogens showed that different produce types may incur varying levels of ingestion risk. Most of the currently reported ESBL-positive bacterial isolates have been identified in nosocomial environments. However, the carriage of such drug-resistant bacteria in vegetables suggests a possible connection between our daily diet and human health.

Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Coiera, Enrico; Wang, Ying; Magrabi, Farah; Concha, Oscar Perez; Gallego, Blanca; Runciman, William

2014-05-21

Current prognostic models factor in patient and disease specific variables but do not consider cumulative risks of hospitalization over time. We developed risk models of the likelihood of death associated with cumulative exposure to hospitalization, based on time-varying risks of hospitalization over any given day, as well as day of the week. Model performance was evaluated alone, and in combination with simple disease-specific models. Patients admitted between 2000 and 2006 from 501 public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia were used for training and 2007 data for evaluation. The impact of hospital care delivered over different days of the week and or times of the day was modeled by separating hospitalization risk into 21 separate time periods (morning, day, night across the days of the week). Three models were developed to predict death up to 7-days post-discharge: 1/a simple background risk model using age, gender; 2/a time-varying risk model for exposure to hospitalization (admission time, days in hospital); 3/disease specific models (Charlson co-morbidity index, DRG). Combining these three generated a full model. Models were evaluated by accuracy, AUC, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. There was a clear diurnal rhythm to hospital mortality in the data set, peaking in the evening, as well as the well-known 'weekend-effect' where mortality peaks with weekend admissions. Individual models had modest performance on the test data set (AUC 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79 respectively). The combined model which included time-varying risk however yielded an average AUC of 0.92. This model performed best for stays up to 7-days (93% of admissions), peaking at days 3 to 5 (AUC 0.94). Risks of hospitalization vary not just with the day of the week but also time of the day, and can be used to make predictions about the cumulative risk of death associated with an individual's hospitalization. Combining disease specific models with such time varying- estimates appears to

Smallpox: clinical highlights and considerations for vaccination.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahoney M

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Smallpox virus has gained considerable attention as a potential bioterrorism agent. Recommendations for smallpox (vaccinia vaccination presume a low risk for use of smallpox as a terrorist biological agent and vaccination is currently recommended for selected groups of individuals such as health care workers, public health authorities, and emergency/rescue workers, among others. Information about adverse reactions to the smallpox vaccine is based upon studies completed during the 1950s and 1960s. The prevalence of various diseases has changed over the last four decades and new disease entities have been described during this period. The smallpox vaccination may be contra-indicated in many of these conditions. This has made pre-screening of potential vaccines necessary. It is believed that at present, the risks of vaccine-associated complications far outweigh the potential benefits of vaccination in the general population.

Psychosocial considerations about children and radiological events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemyre, L.; Corneil, W.; Johnson, C.; Boutette, P.

2010-01-01

Children are identified as a vulnerable population in the case of radiological events because of their increased physical sensitivity to radiation and its impact on critical development stages. Using a comprehensive integrated risk framework, psychosocial risk protective factors are discussed in a social ecology paradigm. Children have been shown to be both vulnerable and resilient; they are both easily impressionable and also quick to adapt and learn. Psychosocial interventions during, after and most efficiently before an event can improve outcome, especially if they involve parents and schools, media and work organisations. Public education through children should be encouraged to increase knowledge of radiation and strategies to minimise exposure and irradiation. Children can become vectors of prevention, preparedness and mitigation through information and behavioural rehearsal. Special consideration must therefore be given to education, school programmes, practice rehearsal and media exposure. (authors)

Spall Strength Measurements of Concrete for Varying Aggregate Sizes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chhabildas, Lalit C.; Kipp, Marlin E.; Reinhart, William D.; Wilson, Leonard T.

1999-01-01

Controlled impact experiments have been performed to determine the spall strength of four different concrete compositions. The four concrete compositions are identified as, 'SAC-5, CSPC', (''3/4'') large, and (''3/8'') small, Aggregate. They differ primarily in aggregate size but with average densities varying by less than five percent. Wave profiles from sixteen experiments, with shock amplitudes of 0.07 to 0.55 GPa, concentrate primarily within the elastic regime. Free-surface particle velocity measurements indicate consistent pullback signals in the release profiles, denoting average span strength of approximately 40 MPa. It is the purpose of this paper to present spall measurements under uniaxial strain loading. Notwithstanding considerable wave structure that is a unique characteristic to the heterogeneous nature of the scaled concrete, the spall amplitudes appear reproducible and consistent over the pressure range reported in this study

Power plants investment decision-making in consideration of investment risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oda, Junichiro; Matsuhashi, Ryuji; Yoshida, Yoshikuni; Takashima, Ryuta

2005-01-01

In this paper, we consider the investment risk of nuclear power plants using the real options approach. It is essential that the Japanese society evaluate the investment risk, because nuclear power plants are facing definite uncertainty and Japanese governments intend to promote and assist nuclear power plants through subsidies and policy actions. We assumed that the wholesale market prices of electricity constitute the definite uncertainty and that the wholesale market prices follow the geometric Brownian motion with drift. Using the Bellman equation and a lattice framework, we evaluated the value of investment opportunity, the value of equipment, and the critical prices that are optimal prices to invest in a nuclear power plant in the finite time horizon. This analysis shows that higher volatility of the wholesale market prices would give power companies lower incentive to construct electric power plants, particularly capital-intensive power plants. In order to deliberate and hold the Japanese governments accountable for the economics of nuclear power plants, multifaceted evaluation is needed. (author)

Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

1992-01-01

When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested

Risk Perception of an Emergent Technology: The Case of Hydrogen Energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rob Flynn

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Although hydrogen has been used in industry for many years as a chemical commodity, its use as a fuel or energy carrier is relatively new and expert knowledge about its associated risks is neither complete nor consensual. Public awareness of hydrogen energy and attitudes towards a future hydrogen economy are yet to be systematically investigated. This paper opens by discussing alternative conceptualisations of risk, then focuses on issues surrounding the use of emerging technologies based on hydrogen energy. It summarises expert assessments of risks associated with hydrogen. It goes on to review debates about public perceptions of risk, and in doing so makes comparisons with public perceptions of other emergent technologies—Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS, Genetically Modified Organisms and Food (GM and Nanotechnology (NT—for which there is considerable scientific uncertainty and relatively little public awareness. The paper finally examines arguments about public engagement and "upstream" consultation in the development of new technologies. It is argued that scientific and technological uncertainties are perceived in varying ways and different stakeholders and different publics focus on different aspects or types of risk. Attempting to move public consultation further "upstream" may not avoid this, because the framing of risks and benefits is necessarily embedded in a cultural and ideological context, and is subject to change as experience of the emergent technology unfolds. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0601194

Ethical considerations for vaccination programmes in acute humanitarian emergencies

Science.gov (United States)

Hardie, Kate; Selgelid, Michael J; Waldman, Ronald J; Strebel, Peter; Rees, Helen; Durrheim, David N

2013-01-01

Abstract Humanitarian emergencies result in a breakdown of critical health-care services and often make vulnerable communities dependent on external agencies for care. In resource-constrained settings, this may occur against a backdrop of extreme poverty, malnutrition, insecurity, low literacy and poor infrastructure. Under these circumstances, providing food, water and shelter and limiting communicable disease outbreaks become primary concerns. Where effective and safe vaccines are available to mitigate the risk of disease outbreaks, their potential deployment is a key consideration in meeting emergency health needs. Ethical considerations are crucial when deciding on vaccine deployment. Allocation of vaccines in short supply, target groups, delivery strategies, surveillance and research during acute humanitarian emergencies all involve ethical considerations that often arise from the tension between individual and common good. The authors lay out the ethical issues that policy-makers need to bear in mind when considering the deployment of mass vaccination during humanitarian emergencies, including beneficence (duty of care and the rule of rescue), non-maleficence, autonomy and consent, and distributive and procedural justice. PMID:23599553

Space Station logistics policy - Risk management from the top down

Science.gov (United States)

Paules, Granville; Graham, James L., Jr.

1990-01-01

Considerations are presented in the area of risk management specifically relating to logistics and system supportability. These considerations form a basis for confident application of concurrent engineering principles to a development program, aiming at simultaneous consideration of support and logistics requirements within the engineering process as the system concept and designs develop. It is shown that, by applying such a process, the chances of minimizing program logistics and supportability risk in the long term can be improved. The problem of analyzing and minimizing integrated logistics risk for the Space Station Freedom Program is discussed.

Risk measurement with equivalent utility principles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Denuit, M.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.

2006-01-01

Risk measures have been studied for several decades in the actuarial literature, where they appeared under the guise of premium calculation principles. Risk measures and properties that risk measures should satisfy have recently received considerable attention in the financial mathematics

Phase behaviour of oat β-glucan/sodium caseinate mixtures varying in molecular weight.

Science.gov (United States)

Agbenorhevi, Jacob K; Kontogiorgos, Vassilis; Kasapis, Stefan

2013-05-01

The isothermal phase behaviour at 5 °C of mixtures of sodium caseinate and oat β-glucan isolates varying in molecular weight (MW) was investigated by means of phase diagram construction, rheometry, fluorescence microscopy and electrophoresis. Phase diagrams indicated that the compatibility of the β-glucan/sodium caseinate system increases as β-glucan MW decreases. Images of mixtures taken at various biopolymer concentrations revealed phase separated domains. Results also revealed that at the state of thermodynamic equilibrium, lower MW samples yielded considerable viscosity in the mixture. At equivalent hydrodynamic volume of β-glucan in the mixtures, samples varying in molecular weight exhibited similar flow behaviour. A deviation dependent on the protein concentration was observed for the high MW sample in the concentrated regime due to the size of β-glucan aggregates formed. Results demonstrate that by controlling the structural features of β-glucan in mixtures with sodium caseinate, informed manipulation of rheological properties in these systems can be achieved. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Event Management for Teacher-Coaches: Risk and Supervision Considerations for School-Based Sports

Science.gov (United States)

Paiement, Craig A.; Payment, Matthew P.

2011-01-01

A professional sports event requires considerable planning in which years are devoted to the success of that single activity. School-based sports events do not have that luxury, because high schools across the country host athletic events nearly every day. It is not uncommon during the fall sports season for a combination of boys' and girls'…

Assessment of the radiation risk from diagnostic radiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Streffer, C.; Mueller, W.U.

1995-01-01

In any assessment of radiation risks from diagnostic radiology the main concern is the possible induction of cancer. It now appears to be beyond all doubt that ionizing rays invite the development of cancer in humans. The radiation doses encountered in diagnostic radiology generally vary from 1 to 50 mSv. For this dose range, no measured values are available to ascertain cancer risks from ionizing rays. The effects of such doses must therefore be extrapolated from higher dose levels under consideration of given dose-effect relationships. All relevant figures for diagnostic X-ray measures are therefore mathematically determined approximate values. The stochastic radiation risk following non-homogeneous radiation exposure is assessed on the basis of the effective dose. This dose was originally introduced to ascertain the risk from radioactive substances incorporated at the working place. A secondary intention was to trigger further developmental processes in radiation protection. Due to the difficulties previously outlined and the uncertainties surrounding the determination and assessment of the effective dose from diagnostic X-ray procedures, this dose should merely be used for technological refinements and comaprisons of examination procedures. It appears unreasonable that the effective doses determined for the individual examinations are summed up to obtain a collective effective dose and to multiply this with a risk factor so as to give an approximation of the resulting deaths from cancer. A reasonable alternative is to inform patients subjected to X-ray examinations about the associated radiation dose and to estimate form this the magnitude of the probable radiation risk. (orig./MG) [de

Flexible Demand Management under Time-Varying Prices

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yong

optimization problem when the objective is to minimize the expected total cost and discomfort, then since the decision maker is likely to be risk-averse, and she wants to protect herself from price spikes, we study the robust optimization problem to address the risk-aversion of the decision maker. We conduct numerical studies to evaluate the price of robustness. Next, we present a detailed model that manages multiple types of flexible demand in the absence of knowledge regarding the distributions of related stochastic processes. Specifically, we consider the case in which time-varying prices with general structures are offered to users, and an energy management system for each household makes optimal energy usage, storage, and trading decisions according to the preferences of users. Because of the uncertainties associated with electricity prices, local generation, and the arrival processes of demand, we formulate a stochastic dynamic programming model, and outline a novel and tractable ADP approach to overcome the curses of dimensionality. Then, we perform numerical studies, whose results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ADP approach. At last, we propose another approximation approach based on Q-learning. In addition, we also develop another decentralization-based heuristic. Both the Q-learning approach and the heuristic make necessary assumptions on the knowledge of information, and each of them has unique advantages. We conduct numerical studies on a testing problem. The simulation results show that both the Q-learning and the decentralization based heuristic approaches work well. Lastly, we conclude the paper with some discussions on future extension directions.

Multivariate Option Pricing with Time Varying Volatility and Correlations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars Peter

In recent years multivariate models for asset returns have received much attention, in particular this is the case for models with time varying volatility. In this paper we consider models of this class and examine their potential when it comes to option pricing. Specifically, we derive the risk...... neutral dynamics for a general class of multivariate heteroskedastic models, and we provide a feasible way to price options in this framework. Our framework can be used irrespective of the assumed underlying distribution and dynamics, and it nests several important special cases. We provide an application...... to options on the minimum of two indices. Our results show that not only is correlation important for these options but so is allowing this correlation to be dynamic. Moreover, we show that for the general model exposure to correlation risk carries an important premium, and when this is neglected option...

ANESTHETIC CONSIDERATION S IN CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMON ARY DISEASE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Awati

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is a spectrum of diseases that includes emphysema, chronic bronchitis, and small airway disease. It i s characterized by progressive increased resistance to breathing. Patients with marked obstructive pulmonary disease are at increased risk for both intraoperative and Postoperative pulmonary complications. These patients require thorough preoperative prepa ration, meticulous intraoperative management & postoperative care. This article describes anesthetic considerations in a patient with COPD.

Children's exposure to diagnostic medical radiation and cancer risk: epidemiologic and dosimetric considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linet, Martha S.; Rajaraman, Preetha; Kim, Kwang pyo

2009-01-01

While the etiology of most childhood cancers is largely unknown, epidemiologic studies have consistently found an association between exposure to medical radiation during pregnancy and risk of childhood cancer in offspring. The relation between early life diagnostic radiation exposure and occurrence of pediatric cancer risks is less clear. This review summarizes current and historical estimated doses for common diagnostic radiologic procedures as well as the epidemiologic literature on the role of maternal prenatal, children's postnatal and parental preconception diagnostic radiologic procedures on subsequent risk of childhood malignancies. Risk estimates are presented according to factors such as the year of birth of the child, trimester and medical indication for the procedure, and the number of films taken. The paper also discusses limitations of the methods employed in epidemiologic studies to assess pediatric cancer risks, the effects on clinical practice of the results reported from the epidemiologic studies, and clinical and public health policy implications of the findings. Gaps in understanding and additional research needs are identified. Important research priorities include nationwide surveys to estimate fetal and childhood radiation doses from common diagnostic procedures, and epidemiologic studies to quantify pediatric and lifetime cancer risks from prenatal and early childhood exposures to diagnostic radiography, CT, and fluoroscopically guided procedures. (orig.)

Effects of Social Support Network Size on Mortality Risk: Considerations by Diabetes Status.

Science.gov (United States)

Loprinzi, Paul D; Ford, M Allison

2018-05-01

Previous work demonstrates that social support is inversely associated with mortality risk. Less research, however, has examined the effects of the size of the social support network on mortality risk among those with and without diabetes, which was the purpose of this study. Data from the 1999-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used, with participants followed through 2011. This study included 1,412 older adults (≥60 years of age) with diabetes and 5,872 older adults without diabetes. The size of the social support network was assessed via self-report and reported as the number of participants' close friends. Among those without diabetes, various levels of social support network size were inversely associated with mortality risk. However, among those with diabetes, only those with a high social support network size (i.e., at least six close friends) had a reduced risk of all-cause mortality. That is, compared to those with zero close friends, those with diabetes who had six or more close friends had a 49% reduced risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.51, 95% CI 0.27-0.94). To mitigate mortality risk, a greater social support network size may be needed for those with diabetes.

Space Toxicology Challenges and Ethical Considerations

Science.gov (United States)

James, John T.

2010-01-01

Before delineating specific ways that nanotechnology enterprises might contribute to better management of toxicological risks during spaceflight, I will show how ethical considerations and several theories of justice can be applied to nanotechnology strategic plans. The principles that guide an ethical technical enterprise include autonomy, beneficence, non-maleficence, veracity and justice. Veracity (truth) is the underpinning principle; however, beyond this, proponents of nanotechnology must think carefully about balancing conflicting principles. For example, autonomy must yield to beneficence when fearful individuals simply lack knowledge to appreciate nanotechnology's beneficial advances. Justice is a complex topic upon which I will place six models: utilitarian, distributive, free-exchange/choice, individual dignity (social participation), equity vs. greed, and liberation of the poor. After briefly summarizing each model, I will present what I call an iterative-hybrid model of justice to show specifically how our thinking can be applied to nanotechnology enterprises. Within that broad landscape, I will discuss a single feature: how our early effort to understand health risks of carbon nanotubes fits into the iterative model. Finally, I will suggest ways that nanotechnology might advance our management of toxicological risks during spaceflight, but always with an eye toward how such advances might result in a more just world.

Risk and response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Warner, F [Cremer and Warner (UK)

1981-01-01

A discussion of nuclear power and public acceptability can quite properly begin with a general consideration of the nature of response to risk. Response follows perception, and builds up from the individual through group response to the judgement of society expressed in governmental decisions on what is acceptable. Various types of risk, and public reaction, are discussed.

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

Reliable Memory Feedback Design for a Class of Nonlinear Fuzzy Systems with Time-varying Delay

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

You-Qing Wang; Dong-Hua Zhou; Li-Heng Liu

2007-01-01

This paper is concerned with the robust reliable memory controller design for a class of fuzzy uncertain systems with time-varying delay. The system under consideration is more general than those in other existent works. The controller, which is dependent on the magnitudes and derivative of the delay, is proposed in terms of linear matrix inequality (LMI). The closed-loop system is asymptotically stable for all admissible uncertainties as well as actuator faults. A numerical example is presented for illustration.

Consideration on risk reduction of future breeder reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vossebrecker, H.

1990-09-01

An overall concept of risk minimization of future sodium-cooled fast breeder reactors is presented in this report. Since shutdown reliability is of vital importance for the breeder safety, a so-called third shutdown level is proposed in addition to the two independent fast shutdown systems. It is basically a group of passive and active measures, which are capable to bring the reactor to safe conditions in all conceivable accident-initiating events and in case of total failure of the two actual shutdown systems. Core disruptions as a result of shutdown failure are therefore beyond the scope of technical imagination. Measures are also foreseen to combat other conceivable causes of core disruption, in particular to achieve residual heat removal with essentially passive systems by making use of the good natural circulation capacity of sodium. On top of that, since absolute safety can never be claimed, damage-limiting containment measures are discussed

Internal Audit and Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Constantin Nicolae Vasile; Alexandru Georgiana

2011-01-01

Internal audit and risk management have the same goal: the control of risk. There are various roles for the internal audit in respect of risk management. The main limitations of internal audit in respect of risk management regards assuming risk management tasks. One of the main issues regarding risk management is to make sure that the key risks are taken into consideration and that the management and the board of the organization take action as needed. Internal audit could give advice to mana...

Flood Risk in Australia: Whose Responsibility Is It, Anyway?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robin van den Honert

2013-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents research into four key stakeholders in flood risk management in Australia: local councils, the insurance industry, the State Emergency Service (SES, and local residents; examining the perception of their own roles and responsibilities, and those of the other stakeholders. Key informant interviews were conducted in four locations—Brisbane and Emerald, in Queensland, Dora Creek, in New South Wales, and Benalla, in Victoria. We find that understanding of the roles and responsibilities of each stakeholder varied considerably between research participants. Insurance representatives felt their concerns about increasing flood risk costs were unheeded until the 2010–2011 floods made them the “canary in the coal mine”. Councils felt they had limited options for reducing flood risk. SES representatives felt they were too relied upon for event response, with requests for assistance outstripping their capacity to assist, and many residents were uncertain how to prepare for flood, relying on emergency agencies and the local council to protect them. Key lessons for flood risk management in Australia are (a an urgent need for all stakeholders to better understand each others’ roles and responsibilities; and (b residents must take greater responsibility for their own personal protection. Only then can the vision of shared responsibility presented by the 2009 National Strategy for Disaster Resilience be achieved.

Who is where at risk for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease? A spatial epidemiological analysis of health insurance claims for COPD in Northeastern Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Kauhl, Boris; Maier, Werner; Schweikart, Jürgen; Keste, Andrea; Moskwyn, Marita

2018-01-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has a high prevalence rate in Germany and a further increase is expected within the next years. Although risk factors on an individual level are widely understood, only little is known about the spatial heterogeneity and population-based risk factors of COPD. Background knowledge about broader, population-based processes could help to plan the future provision of healthcare and prevention strategies more aligned to the expected demand. The aim of this study is to analyze how the prevalence of COPD varies across northeastern Germany on the smallest spatial-scale possible and to identify the location-specific population-based risk factors using health insurance claims of the AOK Nordost. To visualize the spatial distribution of COPD prevalence at the level of municipalities and urban districts, we used the conditional autoregressive Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model. Geographically weighted regression modelling (GWR) was applied to analyze the location-specific ecological risk factors for COPD. The sex- and age-adjusted prevalence of COPD was 6.5% in 2012 and varied widely across northeastern Germany. Population-based risk factors consist of the proportions of insurants aged 65 and older, insurants with migration background, household size and area deprivation. The results of the GWR model revealed that the population at risk for COPD varies considerably across northeastern Germany. Area deprivation has a direct and an indirect influence on the prevalence of COPD. Persons ageing in socially disadvantaged areas have a higher chance of developing COPD, even when they are not necessarily directly affected by deprivation on an individual level. This underlines the importance of considering the impact of area deprivation on health for planning of healthcare. Additionally, our results reveal that in some parts of the study area, insurants with migration background and persons living in multi-persons households are at elevated risk

Investors’ Risk Preference Characteristics Based on Different Reference Point

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fenghua Wen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Taking the stock market as a whole object, we assume that prior losses and gains are two different factors that can influence risk preference separately. The two factors are introduced as separate explanatory variables into the time-varying GARCH-M (TVRA-GARCH-M model. Then, we redefine prior losses and gains by selecting different reference point to study investors’ time-varying risk preference. The empirical evidence shows that investors’ risk preference is time varying and is influenced by previous outcomes; the stock market as a whole exhibits house money effect; that is, prior gains can decrease investors’ risk aversion while prior losses increase their risk aversion. Besides, different reference points selected by investors will cause different valuation of prior losses and gains, thus affecting investors’ risk preference.

Considerations on comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation planning of volcanic ash-fall

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toshida, Kiyoshi

2010-01-01

Volcanic ash-fall is inevitable hazard throughout Japan, and causes wide range of effects due to its physical and chemical properties. Nuclear power plants in Japan face the necessity to assess the risk from volcanic ash-fall. Risk assessment of the volcanic ash-fall should include engineering solution and mitigation planning as well as the ash-fall hazard. This report points out the characteristics for reducing the various effects of volcanic ash-fall as follows. Large-scale eruptions produce prominent volcanic ash-falls that can approach power plants at a great distance. Aftermath hazards of ash-fall events, such as remobilization of fine ash particles and generation of lahars, require further assessments. The kind and extent of damages becomes greater whenever ash is wet. Wet ash requires separate assessments in contrast to dry ash. The mitigation and recovery measures at power plants involve quick cleanup operations of volcanic ash. Those operations should be prepared through comprehensive risk assessment, and by cooperation with authorities, during pre-eruption repose period. The comprehensive assessment for volcanic ash-fall hazards, however, has yet to be conducted. Development of risk communication method may result in increased implementation mitigation planning. Numerical analysis of the ash-fall hazards provides quantitative data on particle motions that can be used in the risk assessment. In order to implement the quantitative assessment method, the verification on the effect of ambient air condition to the altitude of volcanic ash cloud is necessary. We need to develop a three-dimensional model of volcanic ash cloud, and calculate motions of ash clouds under multiple conditions of ambient air. (author)

Health and dosimetry considerations in the ICRP 1990 formulation of effective dose

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eckerman, K.F.

1991-01-01

The new recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection contained in Publication 60 supersede those of Publication 26 issued in 1977. The recommendations are intended to assist national authorities in formulation of radiation protection guidance. Sufficient explanatory information is included to clearly note that radiation protection issues cannot be resolved on the basis of scientific considerations alone, but also require value judgements regarding the relative on the basis of scientific considerations alone, but also require value judgements regarding the relative importance of different kinds of risks and the balance between risk and benefit. Ionizing radiation causes both deterministic and stochastic effects in irradiated tissue. It is the aim of radiation protection to avoid deterministic effects by setting dose limits below their thresholds and to control exposures to limit the frequency of stochastic effects, believed to occur (albeit with low frequency) even at the lowest doses. Cancer induction and hereditary effects are the stochastic effects of concern

Risk assessment considerations with regard to the potential impacts of pesticides on endangered species.

Science.gov (United States)

Brain, Richard A; Teed, R Scott; Bang, JiSu; Thorbek, Pernille; Perine, Jeff; Peranginangin, Natalia; Kim, Myoungwoo; Valenti, Ted; Chen, Wenlin; Breton, Roger L; Rodney, Sara I; Moore, Dwayne R J

2015-01-01

Simple, deterministic screening-level assessments that are highly conservative by design facilitate a rapid initial screening to determine whether a pesticide active ingredient has the potential to adversely affect threatened or endangered species. If a worst-case estimate of pesticide exposure is below a very conservative effects metric (e.g., the no observed effects concentration of the most sensitive tested surrogate species) then the potential risks are considered de minimis and unlikely to jeopardize the existence of a threatened or endangered species. Thus by design, such compounded layers of conservatism are intended to minimize potential Type II errors (failure to reject a false null hypothesis of de minimus risk), but correspondingly increase Type I errors (falsely reject a null hypothesis of de minimus risk). Because of the conservatism inherent in screening-level risk assessments, higher-tier scientific information and analyses that provide additional environmental realism can be applied in cases where a potential risk has been identified. This information includes community-level effects data, environmental fate and exposure data, monitoring data, geospatial location and proximity data, species biology data, and probabilistic exposure and population models. Given that the definition of "risk" includes likelihood and magnitude of effect, higher-tier risk assessments should use probabilistic techniques that more accurately and realistically characterize risk. Moreover, where possible and appropriate, risk assessments should focus on effects at the population and community levels of organization rather than the more traditional focus on the organism level. This document provides a review of some types of higher-tier data and assessment refinements available to more accurately and realistically evaluate potential risks of pesticide use to threatened and endangered species. © 2014 SETAC.

Risky behavior and its effect on survival: snowshoe hare behavior under varying moonlight conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Gigliotti, Laura C.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

2018-01-01

Predation and predation risk can exert strong influences on the behavior of prey species. However, risk avoidance behaviors may vary among populations of the same species. We studied a population of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) near the southern edge of their range, in Pennsylvania. This population occupies different habitat types, experiences different environmental conditions, and are exposed to different predator species and densities than northern hare populations; therefore, they might exhibit differences in risk avoidance behaviors. We analyzed hare survival, movement rates, and habitat use under different levels of predation risk, as indexed by moonlight. Similar to previous work, we found snowshoe hare survival decreased with increased moon illumination during the winter, but we found differences in behavioral responses to increased predation risk. We found that snowshoe hares did not reduce movement rates during high‐risk nights, but instead found that hares selected areas with denser canopy cover, compared to low‐risk nights. We suggest that behavioral plasticity in response to predation risk allows populations of the same species to respond to localized conditions.

Are we able to reduce the mortality and morbidity of oral cancer; Some considerations

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Oral cancer makes up 1%-2% of all cancers that may arise in the body. The majority of oral cancers consists of squamous cell carcinomas. Oral cancer carries a considerable mortality rate, being mainly dependent on the stage of the disease at admission. Worldwide some 50% of the patients with oral cancer present with advanced disease. There are several ways of trying to diagnose oral cancer in a lower tumor stage, being 1) mass screening or screening in selected patients, 2) reduction of patients’ delay, and 3) reduction of doctors’ delay. Oral cancer population-based screening (“mass screening”) programs do not meet the guidelines for a successful outcome. There may be some benefit when focusing on high-risk groups, such as heavy smokers and heavy drinkers. Reported reasons for patients’ delay range from fear of a diagnosis of cancer, limited accessibility of primary health care, to unawareness of the possibility of malignant oral diseases. Apparently, information campaigns in news programs and TV have little effect on patients’ delay. Mouth self-examination may have some value in reducing patients’ delay. Doctors’ delay includes dentists’ delay and diagnostic delay caused by other medical and dental health care professionals. Doctors’ delay may vary from almost zero days up to more than six months. Usually, morbidity of cancer treatment is measured by quality of life (QoL) questionnaires. In the past decades this topic has drawn a lot of attention worldwide. It is a challenge to decrease the morbidity that is associated with the various treatment modalities that are used in oral cancer without substantially compromising the survival rate. Smoking cessation contributes to reducing the risk of oral cancers, with a 50% reduction in risk within five years. Indeed, risk factor reduction seems to be the most effective tool in an attempt to decrease the morbidity and mortality of oral cancer. Key words:Oral cancer, early diagnosis, quality of life

Managing cancer risk and decision making after kidney transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Webster, A C; Wong, G; Craig, J C; Chapman, J R

2008-11-01

Kidney transplant recipients are at higher risk of cancer at most sites, and cancer after transplantation causes considerable morbidity and mortality. To optimize long-term patient outcomes, clinicians balance the prospect of graft failure and dialysis, with competing risks of diabetes, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease and the risk of malignancy. In this paper we critically examine the assumptions underpinning primary prevention, immunization, chemoprevention and screening programs, and highlight considerations when applying evidence to the kidney transplant population, and suggest a clinical research agenda that aims to define a rational approach to managing posttransplant cancer risk.

SFR Safety Consideration in Light of Fukushima Dai-ichi Accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamaguchi, Akira

2013-01-01

SFR Considerations: Fukushima Dai-ichi Accident: • Combined LORL and LOHS type initiated from SBO; • High pressure water-steam cooling system: – Depressurization - Not needed; – Ultimate heat sink - Robust (NC to atmosphere); – Continuous injection - Not needed (large sensible heat capacity). • Severe accident management: – RPV failure resulted in depressurization - Elevated temperature; – Heat sink to atmosphere - Freeing risk, sodium fire risk; – Mobile power supply - External resource may not be needed; – Seawater injection with fire engines - Sodium injection not needed; • Containment performance and accessibility: – Containment - Large containment volume and low pressure system; – Explosives - Sodium fire and hydrogen explosion

Risk premia in general equilibrium

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Posch, Olaf

This paper shows that non-linearities can generate time-varying and asymmetric risk premia over the business cycle. These (empirical) key features become relevant and asset market implications improve substantially when we allow for non-normalities in the form of rare disasters. We employ explici......'s effective risk aversion.......This paper shows that non-linearities can generate time-varying and asymmetric risk premia over the business cycle. These (empirical) key features become relevant and asset market implications improve substantially when we allow for non-normalities in the form of rare disasters. We employ explicit...... solutions of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, including a novel solution with endogenous labor supply, to obtain closed-form expressions for the risk premium in production economies. We find that the curvature of the policy functions affects the risk premium through controlling the individual...

Quantifying the underestimation of relative risks from genome-wide association studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris Spencer

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS have identified hundreds of associated loci across many common diseases. Most risk variants identified by GWAS will merely be tags for as-yet-unknown causal variants. It is therefore possible that identification of the causal variant, by fine mapping, will identify alleles with larger effects on genetic risk than those currently estimated from GWAS replication studies. We show that under plausible assumptions, whilst the majority of the per-allele relative risks (RR estimated from GWAS data will be close to the true risk at the causal variant, some could be considerable underestimates. For example, for an estimated RR in the range 1.2-1.3, there is approximately a 38% chance that it exceeds 1.4 and a 10% chance that it is over 2. We show how these probabilities can vary depending on the true effects associated with low-frequency variants and on the minor allele frequency (MAF of the most associated SNP. We investigate the consequences of the underestimation of effect sizes for predictions of an individual's disease risk and interpret our results for the design of fine mapping experiments. Although these effects mean that the amount of heritability explained by known GWAS loci is expected to be larger than current projections, this increase is likely to explain a relatively small amount of the so-called "missing" heritability.

Attending physician work hours: ethical considerations and the last doctor standing.

Science.gov (United States)

Mercurio, Mark R; Peterec, Steven M

2009-08-01

Based at least in part on concerns for patient safety and evidence that long shifts are associated with an increased risk of physician error, residents' and fellows' work hours have been strictly limited for the past several years. Little attention has been paid, however, to excessive attending physician shift duration, although there seems to be no reason to assume that this common practice poses any less risk to patients. Potential justifications for allowing attending physicians to work without hourly limits include physician autonomy, workforce shortages in certain communities or subspecialties, continuity of care, and financial considerations. None of these clearly justify the apparent increased risk to patients, with the exception in some settings of workforce shortage. In many hospital settings, the practice of allowing attending physicians to work with no limit on shift duration could pose an unnecessary risk to patients.

Education and inequalities in risk scores for coronary heart disease and body mass index: evidence for a population strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Sze Yan; Kawachi, Ichiro; Glymour, M Maria

2012-09-01

Concerns have been raised that education may have greater benefits for persons at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) than for those at low risk. We estimated the association of education (less than high school, high school, or college graduates) with 10-year CHD risk and body mass index (BMI), using linear and quantile regression models, in the following two nationally representative datasets: the 2006 wave of the Health and Retirement Survey and the 2003-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Higher educational attainment was associated with lower 10-year CHD risk for all groups. However, the magnitude of this association varied considerably across quantiles for some subgroups. For example, among women in NHANES, a high school degree was associated with 4% (95% confidence interval = -9% to 1%) and 17% (-24% to -8%) lower CHD risk in the 10th and 90th percentiles, respectively. For BMI, a college degree was associated with uniform decreases across the distribution for women, but with varying increases for men. Compared with those who had not completed high school, male college graduates in the NHANES sample had a BMI that was 6% greater (2% to 11%) at the 10th percentile of the BMI distribution and 7% lower (-10% to -3%) at the 90th percentile (ie, overweight/obese). Estimates from the Health and Retirement Survey sample and the marginal quantile regression models showed similar patterns. Conventional regression methods may mask important variations in the associations between education and CHD risk.

Lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy in Europe: a population-based study using data from the ERA-EDTA Registry.

Science.gov (United States)

van den Brand, Jan A J G; Pippias, Maria; Stel, Vianda S; Caskey, Fergus J; Collart, Frederic; Finne, Partik; Heaf, James; Jais, Jean-Philippe; Kramar, Reinhard; Massy, Ziad A; De Meester, Johan; Traynor, Jamie P; Reisæter, Anna Varberg; Wetzels, Jack F M; Jager, Kitty J

2017-02-01

Upcoming KDIGO guidelines for the evaluation of living kidney donors are expected to move towards a personal risk-based evaluation of potential donors. We present the age and sex-specific lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease in 10 European countries. We defined lifetime risk of RRT as the cumulative incidence of RRT up to age 90 years. We obtained RRT incidence rates per million population by 5-year age groups and sex using data from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry, and used these to estimate the cumulative incidence of RRT, adjusting for competing mortality risk. Lifetime risk of RRT varied from 0.44% to 2.05% at age 20 years and from 0.17% to 1.59% at age 70 years across countries, and was twice as high in men as in women. Lifetime RRT risk decreased with age, ranging from an average of 0.77% to 0.44% in 20- to- 70-year-old women, and from 1.45% to 0.96% in 20- to- 70-year-old men. The lifetime risk of RRT increased slightly over the past decade, more so in men than in women. However, it appears to have stabilized or even decreased slightly in more recent years. The lifetime risk of RRT decreased with age, was lower in women as compared with men of equal age and varied considerably throughout Europe. Given the substantial differences in lifetime risk of RRT between the USA and Europe, country-specific estimates should be used in the evaluation and communication of the risk of RRT for potential living kidney donors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Qualitative research in multicultural psychology: philosophical underpinnings, popular approaches, and ethical considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ponterotto, Joseph G

2010-10-01

This article reviews the current and emerging status of qualitative research in psychology. The particular value of diverse philosophical paradigms and varied inquiry approaches to the advancement of psychology generally, and multicultural psychology specifically, is emphasized. Three specific qualitative inquiry approaches anchored in diverse philosophical research paradigms are highlighted: consensual qualitative research, grounded theory, and participatory action research. The article concludes by highlighting important ethical considerations in multicultural qualitative research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Practical considerations in developing an instrument-maintenance plan--

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guth, M.A.S.

1989-01-01

The author develops a general set of considerations to explain how a consistent, well-organized, prioritized, and adequate time-allowance program plan for routine maintenance can be constructed. The analysis is supplemented with experience from the high flux isotope reactor (HFIR) at US Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). After the preventive maintenance (PM) problem was defined, the instruments on the schedule were selected based on the manufacturer's design specifications, quality-assurance requirements, prior classifications, experiences with the incidence of breakdowns or calibration, and dependencies among instruments. The effects of repair error in PM should be also studied. The HFIR requires three full-time technicians to perform both PM and unscheduled maintenance. A review is presented of concepts from queuing theory to determine anticipated breakdown patterns. In practice, the pneumatic instruments have a much longer lifetime than the electric/electronic instruments on various reactors at ORNL. Some special considerations and risk aversion in choosing a maintenance schedule

Speciated arsenic in air: measurement methodology and risk assessment considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Ari S; Reid, Kim R; Pollock, Margaret C; Campleman, Sharan L

2012-01-01

Accurate measurement of arsenic (As) in air is critical to providing a more robust understanding of arsenic exposures and associated human health risks. Although there is extensive information available on total arsenic in air, less is known on the relative contribution of each arsenic species. To address this data gap, the authors conducted an in-depth review of available information on speciated arsenic in air. The evaluation included the type of species measured and the relative abundance, as well as an analysis of the limitations of current analytical methods. Despite inherent differences in the procedures, most techniques effectively separated arsenic species in the air samples. Common analytical techniques such as inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and/or hydride generation (HG)- or quartz furnace (GF)-atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) were used for arsenic measurement in the extracts, and provided some of the most sensitive detection limits. The current analysis demonstrated that, despite limited comparability among studies due to differences in seasonal factors, study duration, sample collection methods, and analytical methods, research conducted to date is adequate to show that arsenic in air is mainly in the inorganic form. Reported average concentrations of As(III) and As(V) ranged up to 7.4 and 10.4 ng/m3, respectively, with As(V) being more prevalent than As(III) in most studies. Concentrations of the organic methylated arsenic compounds are negligible (in the pg/m3 range). However because of the variability in study methods and measurement methodology, the authors were unable to determine the variation in arsenic composition as a function of source or particulate matter (PM) fraction. In this work, the authors include the implications of arsenic speciation in air on potential exposure and risks. The authors conclude that it is important to synchronize sample collection, preparation, and analytical techniques in order to generate

Risk Consideration and Cost Estimation in Construction Projects Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudius A. Peleskei

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Construction projects usually involve high investments. It is, therefore, a risky adventure for companies as actual costs of construction projects nearly always exceed the planed scenario. This is due to the various risks and the large uncertainty existing within this industry. Determination and quantification of risks and their impact on project costs within the construction industry is described to be one of the most difficult areas. This paper analyses how the cost of construction projects can be estimated using Monte Carlo Simulation. It investigates if the different cost elements in a construction project follow a specific probability distribution. The research examines the effect of correlation between different project costs on the result of the Monte Carlo Simulation. The paper finds out that Monte Carlo Simulation can be a helpful tool for risk managers and can be used for cost estimation of construction projects. The research has shown that cost distributions are positively skewed and cost elements seem to have some interdependent relationships.

ITER risk workshop facilitator guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medina, Patricia

2009-01-01

The goal of planning risk management is to make everyone involved in a program aware that risk should be a consideration in the design, development, and fielding of a system. Risk planning is a tool to assess and mitigate events that might adversely impact the program. Therefore, risk management increases the probability/likelihood of program success and can help to avoid program crisis management and improve problem solving by managing risk early in the acquisition cycle.

ITER risk workshop participant guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medina, Patricia

2009-01-01

The goal of planning risk management is to make everyone involved in a program aware that risk should be a consideration in the design, development, and fielding of a system. Risk planning is a tool to assess and mitigate events that might adversely impact the program. Therefore, risk management increases the probability/likelihood of program success and can help to avoid program crisis management and improve problem solving by managing risk early in the acquisition cycle.

Systematic review on physician's knowledge about radiation doses and radiation risks of computed tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krille, Lucian; Hammer, Gael P.; Merzenich, Hiltrud; Zeeb, Hajo

2010-01-01

Background: The frequent use of computed tomography is a major cause of the increasing medical radiation exposure of the general population. Consequently, dose reduction and radiation protection is a topic of scientific and public concern. Aim: We evaluated the available literature on physicians' knowledge regarding radiation dosages and risks due to computed tomography. Methods: A systematic review in accordance with the Cochrane and PRISMA statements was performed using eight databases. 3091 references were found. Only primary studies assessing physicians' knowledge about computed tomography were included. Results: 14 relevant articles were identified, all focussing on dose estimations for CT. Overall, the surveys showed moderate to low knowledge among physicians concerning radiation doses and the involved health risks. However, the surveys varied considerably in conduct and quality. For some countries, more than one survey was available. There was no general trend in knowledge in any country except a slight improvement of knowledge on health risks and radiation doses in two consecutive local German surveys. Conclusions: Knowledge gaps concerning radiation doses and associated health risks among physicians are evident from published research. However, knowledge on radiation doses cannot be interpreted as reliable indicator for good medical practice.

A behavioral asset pricing model with a time-varying second moment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiarella, Carl; He Xuezhong; Wang, Duo

2006-01-01

We develop a simple behavioral asset pricing model with fundamentalists and chartists in order to study price behavior in financial markets when chartists estimate both conditional mean and variance by using a weighted averaging process. Through a stability, bifurcation, and normal form analysis, the market impact of the weighting process and time-varying second moment are examined. It is found that the fundamental price becomes stable (unstable) when the activities from both types of traders are balanced (unbalanced). When the fundamental price becomes unstable, the weighting process leads to different price dynamics, depending on whether the chartists act as either trend followers or contrarians. It is also found that a time-varying second moment of the chartists does not change the stability of the fundamental price, but it does influence the stability of the bifurcations. The bifurcation becomes stable (unstable) when the chartists are more (less) concerned about the market risk characterized by the time-varying second moment. Different routes to complicated price dynamics are also observed. The analysis provides an analytical foundation for the statistical analysis of the corresponding stochastic version of this type of behavioral model

Numerical analysis of a PCM thermal storage system with varying wall temperature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halawa, E.; Bruno, F.; Saman, W.

2005-01-01

Numerical analysis of melting and freezing of a PCM thermal storage unit (TSU) with varying wall temperature is presented. The TSU under analysis consists of several layers of thin slabs of a PCM subjected to convective boundary conditions where air flows between the slabs. The model employed takes into account the variations in wall temperature along the direction of air flow as well as the sensible heat. The paper discusses typical characteristics of the melting/freezing of PCM slabs in an air stream and presents some results of the numerical simulation in terms of air outlet temperatures and heat transfer rates during the whole periods of melting and freezing. Considerations in the design of the TSU are also given

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Time-Varying Market Integration and Expected Returns in Emerging Markets

OpenAIRE

de Jong, Frank; de Roon, Frans

2001-01-01

We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market. The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value of the assets that can be held by domestic investors only versus the market value of the assets that can be traded freely. Our empirical analysis for 30 emerging markets shows that there are stro...

Time Varying Market Integration and Expected Rteurns in Emerging Markets

OpenAIRE

Jong, F.C.J.M. de; Roon, F.A. de

2001-01-01

We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market.The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value of the assets that can be held by domestic investors only versus the market value of the assets that can be traded freely.Our empirical analysis for 30 emerging markets shows that there are strong...

Manned Versus Unmanned Risk and Complexity Considerations for Future Midsized X-Planes

Science.gov (United States)

Lechniak, Jason A.; Melton, John E.

2017-01-01

The objective of this work was to identify and estimate complexity and risks associated with the development and testing of new low-cost medium-scale X-plane aircraft primarily focused on air transport operations. Piloting modes that were evaluated for this task were manned, remotely piloted, and unmanned flight research programs. This analysis was conducted early in the data collection period for X-plane concept vehicles before preliminary designs were complete. Over 50 different aircraft and system topics were used to evaluate the three piloting control modes. Expert group evaluations from a diverse set of pilots, engineers, and other experts at Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate centers within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration provided qualitative reasoning on the many issues surrounding the decisions regarding piloting modes. The group evaluations were numerically rated to evaluate each topic quantitatively and were used to provide independent criteria for vehicle complexity and risk. An Edwards Air Force Base instruction document was identified that emerged as a source of the effects found in our qualitative and quantitative data. The study showed that a manned aircraft was the best choice to align with test activities for transport aircraft flight research from a low-complexity and low-risk perspective. The study concluded that a manned aircraft option would minimize the risk and complexity to improve flight-test efficiency and bound the cost of the flight-test portion of the program. Several key findings and discriminators between the three modes are discussed in detail.

Bleeding Risks With Aspirin Use for Primary Prevention in Adults: A Systematic Review for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitlock, Evelyn P; Burda, Brittany U; Williams, Selvi B; Guirguis-Blake, Janelle M; Evans, Corinne V

2016-06-21

The balance between potential aspirin-related risks and benefits is critical in primary prevention. To evaluate the risk for serious bleeding with regular aspirin use in cardiovascular disease (CVD) primary prevention. PubMed, MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (2010 through 6 January 2015), and relevant references from other reviews. Randomized, controlled trials; cohort studies; and meta-analyses comparing aspirin with placebo or no treatment to prevent CVD or cancer in adults. One investigator abstracted data, another checked for accuracy, and 2 assessed study quality. In CVD primary prevention studies, very-low-dose aspirin use (≤100 mg daily or every other day) increased major gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding risk by 58% (odds ratio [OR], 1.58 [95% CI, 1.29 to 1.95]) and hemorrhagic stroke risk by 27% (OR, 1.27 [CI, 0.96 to 1.68]). Projected excess bleeding events with aspirin depend on baseline assumptions. Estimated excess major bleeding events were 1.39 (CI, 0.70 to 2.28) for GI bleeding and 0.32 (CI, -0.05 to 0.82) for hemorrhagic stroke per 1000 person-years of aspirin exposure using baseline bleeding rates from a community-based observational sample. Such events could be greater among older persons, men, and those with CVD risk factors that also increase bleeding risk. Power to detect effects on hemorrhagic stroke was limited. Harms other than serious bleeding were not examined. Consideration of the safety of primary prevention with aspirin requires an individualized assessment of aspirin's effects on bleeding risks and expected benefits because absolute bleeding risk may vary considerably by patient. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Consideration of Cosmetic Surgery As Part of Women's Benefit-Provisioning Mate Retention Strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Atari, Mohammad; Barbaro, Nicole; Sela, Yael; Shackelford, Todd K; Chegeni, Razieh

2017-01-01

Individuals perform mate retention behaviors to minimize the risk of partner infidelity and relationship dissolution. The current study investigates whether consideration of cosmetic surgery can be conceptualized as part of a broader strategy of mate retention for women, but not men. We hypothesized that women's consideration of cosmetic surgery would be positively associated with performance frequencies of Benefit-Provisioning and Cost-Inflicting mate retention behaviors. We recruited 203 individuals (54% women) in committed heterosexual relationships from Tehran, Iran. Results indicate a positive association between consideration of cosmetic surgery and Benefit-Provisioning mate retention behaviors for women, but not men. There was no association between consideration of cosmetic surgery and Cost-Inflicting mate retention behaviors. Women therefore may consider cosmetic surgery to improve their physical attractiveness as part of a Benefit-Provisioning strategy to retain a long-term mate. We discuss limitations of the study and highlight future directions for research from an evolutionary perspective.

Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

Science.gov (United States)

Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

2015-01-01

The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

A prospective study on the variation in falling and fall risk among community-dwelling older citizens in 12 European countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Franse, Carmen B; Rietjens, Judith Ac; Burdorf, Alex; van Grieken, Amy; Korfage, Ida J; van der Heide, Agnes; Mattace Raso, Francesco; van Beeck, Ed; Raat, Hein

2017-06-30

The rate of falling among older citizens appears to vary across different countries, but the underlying aspects causing this variation are unexplained. We aim to describe between-country variation in falling and explore whether intrinsic fall risk factors can explain possible variation. Prospective study on data from the cross-national Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Twelve European countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland). Community-dwelling persons aged ≥65 years (n=18 596). Socio-demographic factors (age, gender, education level and living situation) and intrinsic fall risk factors (less than good self-rated health (SRH), mobility limitations, limitations with activities of daily living (ADL), dizziness, impaired vision, depression and impaired cognition) were assessed in a baseline interview. Falling was assessed 2 years later by asking whether the participant had fallen within the 6 months prior to the follow-up interview. There was significant between-country variation in the rate of falling (varying from 7.9% in Switzerland to 16.2% in the Czech Republic). The prevalence of intrinsic fall risk factors varied twofold to fourfold between countries. Associations between factors age ≥80 years, less than good SRH, mobility limitations, ADL limitations, dizziness and depression, and falling were different between countries (pfalling largely persisted after adjusting for socio-demographic differences but strongly attenuated after adjusting for differences in intrinsic fall risk factors. There is considerable variation in the rate of falling between European countries, which can largely be explained by between-country variation in the prevalence of intrinsic fall risk factors. There are also country-specific variations in the association between these intrinsic risk factors and falling. These findings emphasise the importance of addressing

Cancer risk assessment of ethyl carbamate in alcoholic beverages from Brazil with special consideration to the spirits cachaça and tiquira

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kanteres Fotis

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Ethyl carbamate (EC is a multi-site carcinogen in experimental animals and probably carcinogenic to humans (IARC group 2A. Traces of EC below health-relevant ranges naturally occur in several fermented foods and beverages, while higher concentrations above 1 mg/l are regularly detected in only certain spirits derived from cyanogenic plants. In Brazil this concerns the sugarcane spirit cachaça and the manioc (cassava spirit tiquira, which both regularly exceed the national EC limit of 0.15 mg/l. This study aims to estimate human exposure in Brazil and provide a quantitative risk assessment. Methods The human dietary intake of EC via alcoholic beverages was estimated based on WHO alcohol consumption data in combination with own surveys and literature data. This data comprises the EC contents of the different beverage groups cachaça, tiquira, other spirits, beer, wine, and unrecorded alcohol (as defined by the WHO; including alcohol which is not captured in routine government statistics nor taxed. The risk assessment was conducted using the margin of exposure (MOE approach with benchmark doses obtained from dose-response modelling of animal experiments. Lifetime cancer risk was calculated using the T25 dose descriptor. Results Considering differences between pot-still and column-still cachaça, its average EC content would be 0.38 mg/l. Tiquira contained a considerably higher average EC content of 2.34 mg/l. The whole population exposure from all alcoholic beverages was calculated to be around 100 to 200 ng/kg bw/day, with cachaça and unrecorded alcohol as the major contributing factors. The MOE was calculated to range between 400 and 2,466, with the lifetime cancer risk at approximately 3 cases in 10,000. An even higher risk may exist for binge-drinkers of cachaça and tiquira with MOEs of up to 80 and 15, respectively. Conclusions According to our risk assessment, EC poses a significant cancer risk for the alcohol

Cancer risk assessment of ethyl carbamate in alcoholic beverages from Brazil with special consideration to the spirits cachaça and tiquira.

Science.gov (United States)

Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Lima, Maria C P; Nóbrega, Ian C C; Pereira, José A P; Kerr-Corrêa, Florence; Kanteres, Fotis; Rehm, Jürgen

2010-06-08

Ethyl carbamate (EC) is a multi-site carcinogen in experimental animals and probably carcinogenic to humans (IARC group 2A). Traces of EC below health-relevant ranges naturally occur in several fermented foods and beverages, while higher concentrations above 1 mg/l are regularly detected in only certain spirits derived from cyanogenic plants. In Brazil this concerns the sugarcane spirit cachaça and the manioc (cassava) spirit tiquira, which both regularly exceed the national EC limit of 0.15 mg/l. This study aims to estimate human exposure in Brazil and provide a quantitative risk assessment. The human dietary intake of EC via alcoholic beverages was estimated based on WHO alcohol consumption data in combination with own surveys and literature data. This data comprises the EC contents of the different beverage groups cachaça, tiquira, other spirits, beer, wine, and unrecorded alcohol (as defined by the WHO; including alcohol which is not captured in routine government statistics nor taxed). The risk assessment was conducted using the margin of exposure (MOE) approach with benchmark doses obtained from dose-response modelling of animal experiments. Lifetime cancer risk was calculated using the T25 dose descriptor. Considering differences between pot-still and column-still cachaça, its average EC content would be 0.38 mg/l. Tiquira contained a considerably higher average EC content of 2.34 mg/l. The whole population exposure from all alcoholic beverages was calculated to be around 100 to 200 ng/kg bw/day, with cachaça and unrecorded alcohol as the major contributing factors. The MOE was calculated to range between 400 and 2,466, with the lifetime cancer risk at approximately 3 cases in 10,000. An even higher risk may exist for binge-drinkers of cachaça and tiquira with MOEs of up to 80 and 15, respectively. According to our risk assessment, EC poses a significant cancer risk for the alcohol-drinking population in Brazil, in addition to that of alcohol alone

Simplifying the audit of risk factor recording and control: A report from an international study in 11 countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Min; Cooney, Marie Therese; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin; Vaartjes, Ilonca; De Bacquer, Dirk; De Sutter, Johan; Reiner, Željko; Prescott, Eva; Faggiano, Pompilio; Vanuzzo, Diego; AlFaleh, Hussam; Menown, Ian Ba; Gait, Dan; Posogova, Nana; Sheu, Wayne H-H; Zhao, Dong; Zuo, Huijuan; Grobbee, Diederick E; Graham, Ian M

2016-07-01

To simplify the assessment of the recording and control of coronary heart disease risk factors in different countries and regions. The SUrvey of Risk Factors (SURF) is an international clinical audit. Data on consecutive patients with established coronary heart disease from countries in Europe, Asia and the Middle East were collected on a one-page collection sheet or electronically during routine clinic visits. Information on demographics, diagnostic category, risk factors, physical and laboratory measurements, and medications were included and key variables summarized in a Cardiovascular Health Index Score. Coronary heart disease patients (N = 10,186; 29% women) were enrolled from 79 centres in 11 countries. Recording of risk factors varied considerably: smoking was recorded in over 98% of subjects, while about 20% lacked data on laboratory measurements relevant to cardiovascular disease risk. Sixteen per cent of participants reported smoking, 29% were obese, and 46% had abdominal obesity. Sixty per cent of participants had blood pressure control of risk factors with substantial variation between countries, calling for development and implementation of clinical standards of secondary prevention of coronary heart disease. © The European Society of Cardiology 2016.

Finite-Time Reentry Attitude Control Using Time-Varying Sliding Mode and Disturbance Observer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuzhong Wu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the finite-time attitude control problem for reentry vehicle with redundant actuators in consideration of planet uncertainties and external disturbances. Firstly, feedback linearization technique is used to cancel the nonlinearities of equations of motion to construct a basic mode for attitude controller. Secondly, two kinds of time-varying sliding mode control methods with disturbance observer are integrated with the basic mode in order to enhance the control performance and system robustness. One method is designed based on boundary layer technique and the other is a novel second-order sliding model control method. The finite-time stability analyses of both resultant closed-loop systems are carried out. Furthermore, after attitude controller produces the torque commands, an optimization control allocation approach is introduced to allocate them into aerodynamic surface deflections and on-off reaction control system thrusts. Finally, the numerical simulation results demonstrate that both of the time-varying sliding mode control methods are robust to uncertainties and disturbances without chattering phenomenon. Moreover, the proposed second-order sliding mode control method possesses better control accuracy.

Risk mitigation strategies for viral contamination of biotechnology products: consideration of best practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenberg, Amy S; Cherney, Barry; Brorson, Kurt; Clouse, Kathleen; Kozlowski, Steven; Hughes, Patricia; Friedman, Rick

2011-01-01

CONFERENCE PROCEEDING Proceedings of the PDA/FDA Adventitious Viruses in Biologics: Detection and Mitigation Strategies Workshop in Bethesda, MD, USA; December 1-3, 2010 Guest Editors: Arifa Khan (Bethesda, MD), Patricia Hughes (Bethesda, MD) and Michael Wiebe (San Francisco, CA) Viral contamination of biotech product facilities is a potentially devastating manufacturing risk and, unfortunately, is more common than is generally reported or previously appreciated. Although viral contaminants of biotech products are thought to originate principally from biological raw materials, all potential process risks merit evaluation. Limitations to existing methods for virus detection are becoming evident as emerging viruses have contaminated facilities and disrupted supplies of critical products. New technologies, such as broad-based polymerase chain reaction screens for multiple virus types, are increasingly becoming available to detect adventitious viral contamination and thus, mitigate risks to biotech products and processes. Further, the industry embrace of quality risk management that promotes improvements in testing stratagems, enhanced viral inactivation methods for raw materials, implementation and standardization of robust viral clearance procedures, and efforts to learn from both epidemiologic screening of raw material sources and from the experience of other manufacturers with regard to this problem will serve to enhance the safety of biotech products available to patients. Based on this evolving landscape, we propose a set of principles for manufacturers of biotech products: Pillars of Risk Mitigation for Viral Contamination of Biotech Products.

Risk assessments for energy systems and role of preliminary degree-of-hazard evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Habegger, L.J.; Fingleton, D.J.

1985-11-01

The appropriate approach to risk or hazard assessment can vary considerably, depending on various factors, including the intended application of the results and the time other resources available to conduct the assessment. This paper illustrates three types of interrelated assessments. Although they can be mutually supportive, they have fundamentally different objectives, which require major differences in approach. The example of the overall risk assessment of alternative major energy technologies illustrates the compilation of a wide range of available risk data applicable to these systems. However, major uncertainties exist in the assessments, and public perception of their importance could play an important role in final system evaluations. A more narrowly defined risk assessment, often focusing on an individual component of a larger system, is the most commonly used approach in regulatory applications. The narrow scope allows in-depth analysis of risks and associated uncertainties, but it may also contribute to a loss of perspective on the magnitude of the assessed risk relative to that of the unassessed risks. In some applications, it is useful to conduct semiquantitative degree-of-hazard evaluations as a means of setting priorities for detailed risk assessment. The MAHAS procedure described in this paper provides a means of rapidly ranking relative hazards from various sources using easily accessible data. However, these rankings should not be used as definitive input for selecting technology alternatives or developing regulations. 25 refs., 6 tabs

Industrial risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okrent, D.

1981-01-01

A brief look is taken at the status of progress, or the lack of it, towards a quantitative approach to the estimation and assessment of risk for several technologies in the United States. The increase of interest in the consideration of comparative risks in decision-making is also discussed. Finally, a recently proposed trial approach to quantitative safety goals for light-water nuclear power reactors is summarized. The approach is divided into two major tasks: the predominantly social and political task of setting safety criteria, and the technical task of estimating the risks and deciding whether the safety criteria have been met. The safety criteria include the following: limits on hazard states within the reactor; limits on risk to the individual; limits on societal risk; a cost-effectiveness criterion as low as reasonably achievable; a small element of risk aversion. (author)

Perspectives on cumulative risks and impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Faust, John B

2010-01-01

Cumulative risks and impacts have taken on different meanings in different regulatory and programmatic contexts at federal and state government levels. Traditional risk assessment methodologies, with considerable limitations, can provide a framework for the evaluation of cumulative risks from chemicals. Under an environmental justice program in California, cumulative impacts are defined to include exposures, public health effects, or environmental effects in a geographic area from the emission or discharge of environmental pollution from all sources, through all media. Furthermore, the evaluation of these effects should take into account sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors where possible and to the extent data are available. Key aspects to this potential approach include the consideration of exposures (versus risk), socioeconomic factors, the geographic or community-level assessment scale, and the inclusion of not only health effects but also environmental effects as contributors to impact. Assessments of this type extend the boundaries of the types of information that toxicologists generally provide for risk management decisions.

Radioactive waste disposal - ethical and environmental considerations - A Canadian perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roots, F.

1994-01-01

This work deals with ethical and environmental considerations of radioactive waste disposal in Canada. It begins with the canadian attitudes toward nature and environment. Then are given the canadian institutions which reflect an environmental ethic, the development of a canadian radioactive waste management policy, the establishment of formal assessment and review process for a nuclear fuel waste disposal facility, some studies of the ethical and risk dimensions of nuclear waste decisions, the canadian societal response to issues of radioactive wastes, the analysis of risks associated with fuel waste disposal, the influence of other energy related environmental assessments and some common ground and possible accommodation between the different views. (O.L.). 50 refs

Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

Science.gov (United States)

Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

2015-02-01

BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

Toxicological Considerations, Toxicity Assessment, and Risk Management of Inhaled Nanoparticles.

Science.gov (United States)

Bakand, Shahnaz; Hayes, Amanda

2016-06-14

Novel engineered nanoparticles (NPs), nanomaterial (NM) products and composites, are continually emerging worldwide. Many potential benefits are expected from their commercial applications; however, these benefits should always be balanced against risks. Potential toxic effects of NM exposure have been highlighted, but, as there is a lack of understanding about potential interactions of nanomaterials (NMs) with biological systems, these side effects are often ignored. NPs are able to translocate to the bloodstream, cross body membrane barriers effectively, and affect organs and tissues at cellular and molecular levels. NPs may pass the blood-brain barrier (BBB) and gain access to the brain. The interactions of NPs with biological milieu and resulted toxic effects are significantly associated with their small size distribution, large surface area to mass ratio (SA/MR), and surface characteristics. NMs are able to cross tissue and cell membranes, enter into cellular compartments, and cause cellular injury as well as toxicity. The extremely large SA/MR of NPs is also available to undergo reactions. An increased surface area of the identical chemical will increase surface reactivity, adsorption properties, and potential toxicity. This review explores biological pathways of NPs, their toxic potential, and underlying mechanisms responsible for such toxic effects. The necessity of toxicological risk assessment to human health should be emphasised as an integral part of NM design and manufacture.

Toxicological Considerations, Toxicity Assessment, and Risk Management of Inhaled Nanoparticles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shahnaz Bakand

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Novel engineered nanoparticles (NPs, nanomaterial (NM products and composites, are continually emerging worldwide. Many potential benefits are expected from their commercial applications; however, these benefits should always be balanced against risks. Potential toxic effects of NM exposure have been highlighted, but, as there is a lack of understanding about potential interactions of nanomaterials (NMs with biological systems, these side effects are often ignored. NPs are able to translocate to the bloodstream, cross body membrane barriers effectively, and affect organs and tissues at cellular and molecular levels. NPs may pass the blood–brain barrier (BBB and gain access to the brain. The interactions of NPs with biological milieu and resulted toxic effects are significantly associated with their small size distribution, large surface area to mass ratio (SA/MR, and surface characteristics. NMs are able to cross tissue and cell membranes, enter into cellular compartments, and cause cellular injury as well as toxicity. The extremely large SA/MR of NPs is also available to undergo reactions. An increased surface area of the identical chemical will increase surface reactivity, adsorption properties, and potential toxicity. This review explores biological pathways of NPs, their toxic potential, and underlying mechanisms responsible for such toxic effects. The necessity of toxicological risk assessment to human health should be emphasised as an integral part of NM design and manufacture.

PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

2006-01-01

The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

Associations between AUDIT-C and mortality vary by age and sex.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Alex H S; Bradley, Katharine A; Bowe, Thomas; Henderson, Patricia; Moos, Rudolf

2010-10-01

We sought to determine the sex- and age-specific risk of mortality associated with scores on the 3-item Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) questionnaire using data from a national sample of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients. Men (N = 215,924) and women (N = 9168) who completed the AUDIT-C in a patient survey were followed for 24 months. AUDIT-C categories (0, 1-4, 5-8, 9-12) were evaluated as predictors of mortality in logistic regression models, adjusted for age, race, education, marital status, smoking, depression, and comorbidities. For women, AUDIT-C scores of 9-12 were associated with a significantly increased risk of death compared to the AUDIT-C 1-4 group (odds ratio [OR] 7.09; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.67, 18.82). For men overall, AUDIT-C scores of 5-8 and 9-12 were associated with increased risk of death compared to the AUDIT-C 1-4 group (OR 1.13, 95% CI = 1.05, 1.21, and OR 1.63, 95% CI = 1.45, 1.84, respectively) but these associations varied by age. These results provide sex- and age-tailored risk information that clinicians can use in evidence-based conversations with patients about the health-related risks of their alcohol consumption. This study adds to the growing literature establishing the AUDIT-C as a scaled marker of alcohol-related risk or "vital sign" that might facilitate the detection and management of alcohol-related risks and problems.

The control of potential health risks related to drinking water in the UK

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dick, T A

1981-04-01

In the United Kingdom, potable water put into supply is required to be 'wholesome'. The term 'wholesome' is interpreted as clear, palatable and safe to drink. About 99% of potable supplies are provided by Regional Water Authorities and Water Companies (for England and Wales), Regional Councils and Island Councils (for Scotland) and the Department of the Environment (NI) (for Northern Ireland). These water authorities draw their raw water from upland surface waters, lowland surface waters (including lakes and rivers) and underground waters. Although each source provides approximately one-third of supply, the proportion varies considerably in different parts of the UK. Consequently the control of potential health risks related to drinking water also varies according to the source of supply. The paper describes briefly the treatment practice for the various sources, including disinfection practice. More specifically the paper describes current UK practice or developments in the control or investigation of plumbosolvency, fluoridation, nitrate, trihalomethanes, other organic micropollutants, sodium, asbestos and tar linings in pipes. The possibilities for the surveillance of the 1% of private supplies are also discussed.

Holographic cinematography of time-varying reflecting and time-varying phase objects using a Nd:YAG laser

Science.gov (United States)

Decker, A. J.

1982-01-01

The use of a Nd:YAG laser to record holographic motion pictures of time-varying reflecting objects and time-varying phase objects is discussed. Sample frames from both types of holographic motion pictures are presented. The holographic system discussed is intended for three-dimensional flow visualization of the time-varying flows that occur in jet-engine components.

Cold Atoms – Hot Research: High Risks, High Rewards in Five Different Authority Structures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Laudel, Grit; Lettkemann, Eric; Ramuz, Raphaël; Wedlin, Linda; Woolley, Richard; Whitley, Richard; Gläser, Jochen

2014-01-01

Bose-Einstein condensation is a scientific innovation in experimental physics whose realisation required considerable time and resources. Its diffusion varied considerably between and within five countries that were comparatively studied. Differences between countries can be explained by the

Constellation Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): Design Consideration for the Crew Exploration Vehicle

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Stamatelatos, Michael G.; Young, Jonathan; Smith, Curtis

2010-01-01

Managed by NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, a pilot probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the NASA Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) was performed in early 2006. The PRA methods used follow the general guidance provided in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners'. Phased-mission based event trees and fault trees are used to model a lunar sortie mission of the CEV - involving the following phases: launch of a cargo vessel and a crew vessel; rendezvous of these two vessels in low Earth orbit; transit to th$: moon; lunar surface activities; ascension &om the lunar surface; and return to Earth. The analysis is based upon assumptions, preliminary system diagrams, and failure data that may involve large uncertainties or may lack formal validation. Furthermore, some of the data used were based upon expert judgment or extrapolated from similar componentssystemsT. his paper includes a discussion of the system-level models and provides an overview of the analysis results used to identify insights into CEV risk drivers, and trade and sensitivity studies. Lastly, the PRA model was used to determine changes in risk as the system configurations or key parameters are modified.

Engineering and Fabrication Considerations for Cost-Effective Space Reactor Shield Development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berg, Thomas A.; Disney, Richard K.

2004-01-01

Investment in developing nuclear power for space missions cannot be made on the basis of a single mission. Current efforts in the design and fabrication of the reactor module, including the reactor shield, must be cost-effective and take into account scalability and fabricability for planned and future missions. Engineering considerations for the shield need to accommodate passive thermal management, varying radiation levels and effects, and structural/mechanical issues. Considering these challenges, design principles and cost drivers specific to the engineering and fabrication of the reactor shield are presented that contribute to lower recurring mission costs

Bank governance, regulation, and risk taking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Laeven, L.; Levine, R.

2009-01-01

This paper conducts the first empirical assessment of theories concerning risk taking by banks, their ownership structures, and national bank regulations. We focus on conflicts between bank managers and owners over risk, and we show that bank risk taking varies positively with the comparative power

Stress and food allergy: mechanistic considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Schreier, Hannah M C; Wright, Rosalind J

2014-04-01

Recent years have seen a marked increase in food allergy prevalence among children, particularly in Western countries, that cannot be explained by genetic factors alone. This has resulted in an increased effort to identify environmental risk factors underlying food allergies and to understand how these factors may be modified through interventions. Food allergy is an immune-mediated adverse reaction to food. Consequently, considerations of candidate risk factors have begun to focus on environmental influences that perturb the healthy development of the emerging immune system during critical periods of development (eg, prenatally and during early childhood), particularly in the gut. Given that psychosocial stress is known to play an important role in other allergic and inflammatory diseases, such as asthma, its potential role in food allergy is a growing area of research. However, research to date has largely focused on animal studies. This review synthesizes relevant animal research and epidemiological data, providing proof of concept for moderating influences of psychological stress on food allergy outcomes in humans. Pathways that may underlie associations between psychosocial stress and the expression of food allergy are discussed. Copyright © 2014 American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Endocrine therapy for breast cancer prevention in high-risk women: clinical and economic considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Groom, Amy G; Younis, Tallal

2016-01-01

The global burden of breast cancer highlights the need for primary prevention strategies that demonstrate both favorable clinical benefit/risk profile and good value for money. Endocrine therapy with selective estrogen-receptor modulators (SERMs) or aromatase inhibitors (AIs) has been associated with a favorable clinical benefit/risk profile in the prevention of breast cancer in women at high risk of developing the disease. The available endocrine therapy strategies differ in terms of their relative reductions of breast cancer risk, potential side effects, and upfront drug acquisition costs, among others. This review highlights the clinical trials of SERMs and AIs for the primary prevention of breast cancer, and the cost-effectiveness /cost-utility studies that have examined their "value for money" in various health care jurisdictions.

Wilderness Preparticipation Evaluation and Considerations for Special Populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Joy, Elizabeth; Van Baak, Karin; Dec, Katherine L; Semakula, Barbara; Cardin, Ashlea D; Lemery, Jay; Wortley, George C; Yaron, Michael; Madden, Christopher

2015-12-01

Children, older adults, disabled and special needs athletes, and female athletes who participate in outdoor and wilderness sports and activities each face unique risks. For children and adolescents traveling to high altitude, the preparticipation physical evaluation should focus on risk assessment, prevention strategies, early recognition of altitude-related symptoms, management plans, and appropriate follow-up. As the risk and prevalence of chronic disease increases with age, both older patients and providers need to be aware of disease and medication-specific risks relative to wilderness sport and activity participation. Disabled and special needs athletes benefit from careful pre-event planning for the potential medical issues and equipment modifications that may affect their health in wilderness environments. Issues that demand special consideration for female adventurers include pregnancy, contraceptive use, menses, and ferritin levels at altitude. A careful preparticipation evaluation that factors in unique, population- specific risks will help special populations stay healthy and safe on wilderness adventures. The PubMed and SportDiscus databases were searched in 2014 using both MeSH terms and text words and include peer-reviewed English language articles from 1977 to 2014. Additional information was accessed from Web-based sources to produce this narrative review on preparticipation evaluation for special populations undertaking wilderness adventures. Key words include children, adolescent, pediatric, seniors, elderly, disabled, special needs, female, athlete, preparticipiation examination, wilderness medicine, and sports. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, T.H.

1995-12-31

By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

Does Accessibility of Positive and Negative Schema Vary by Child Physical Abuse Risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Crouch, Julie L.; Risser, Heather J.; Skowronski, John J.; Milner, Joel S.; Farc, Magdalena M.; Irwin, Lauren M.

2010-01-01

Objective: To examine differences in accessibility of positive and negative schema in parents with high and low risk for child physical abuse (CPA). Methods: This study combined picture priming and lexical decision making methods to assess the accessibility of positive and negative words following presentation of child and adult faces. The child…

Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Kaplan, Isaac C

2016-01-01

Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill-Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod-Limacina helicina, pink shrimp-Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab-Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake-Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species' vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.

INTERNAL AUDIT AND RISK MANAGEMENT

OpenAIRE

Elena RUSE; Georgiana SUSMANSCHI (BADEA); Daniel DĂNECI-PĂTRĂU

2014-01-01

The existence of risk in economic activity can not be denied. In fact, the risk is a concept which exists in every activity, the term of risk being identified with uncertainty, respectively the (un)chance to produce an undesirable event. Internal audit and risk management aim at the same goal, namely the control of risks. Internal Audit performs several roles in risk management plan. The objectives of the internal audit function varies from company to company, but in all economic entities int...

Active Risk Management and Banking Stability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Silva Buston, C.F.

2013-01-01

Abstract: This paper analyzes the net impact of two opposing effects of active risk management at banks on their stability: higher risk-taking incentives and better isolation of credit supply from varying economic conditions. We present a model where banks actively manage their portfolio risk by

A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

2011-07-01

Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Inclusion and Implementation of Socio-Economic Considerations in GMO Regulations: Needs and Recommendations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosa Binimelis

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Socio-economic considerations are included in the regulatory frameworks on genetically modified organisms (GMOs of many countries. This is a reflection of an increasing interest in and recognition of the necessity to consider a broader range of issues when conducting a GMO risk assessment. At the same time, there are discussions about how socio-economic considerations can be identified and how their assessment can be carried out. To provide an understanding of the advances achieved so far, we describe the state of the art of existing biosafety institutional frameworks, legislation and policies with provisions on socio-economic considerations. We analyse the scope of the socio-economic considerations that have been included, the methodological options taken and the role of participatory processes and stakeholders involvement in the GMO-related decision-making. Since many of the countries that have legislation for assessing socio-economic considerations lack implementation experience, we provide an analysis of how implementation has evolved in Norway with the intention to illustrate that the inclusion of socio-economic considerations might be based on a learning process. Norway was the first country to include broader issues in its GMO assessment process, and is at present one of the countries with the most experience on implementation of these issues. Finally, we emphasise that there is a great need for training on how to perform assessments of socio-economic considerations, as well as reflection on possible ways for inclusion of participatory processes.

The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Osterrieder, Daniela; Schotman, Peter C.

We develop a model that can match two stylized facts of the term-structure. The first stylized fact is the predictability of excess returns on long-term bonds. Modeling this requires sufficient volatility and persistence in the price of risk. The second stylized fact is that long-term yields...... are dominated by a level factor, which requires persistence in the spot interest rate. We find that a fractionally integrated process for the short rate plus a fractionally integrated specification for the price of risk leads to an analytically tractable almost affine term structure model that can explain...... the stylized facts. In a decomposition of long-term bond returns we find that the expectations component from the level factor is more volatile than the returns themselves. It therefore takes a volatile risk premium that is negatively correlated with innovations in the level factor to explain the volatility...

Consideration of Cosmetic Surgery As Part of Women’s Benefit-Provisioning Mate Retention Strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Atari

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Individuals perform mate retention behaviors to minimize the risk of partner infidelity and relationship dissolution. The current study investigates whether consideration of cosmetic surgery can be conceptualized as part of a broader strategy of mate retention for women, but not men. We hypothesized that women’s consideration of cosmetic surgery would be positively associated with performance frequencies of Benefit-Provisioning and Cost-Inflicting mate retention behaviors. We recruited 203 individuals (54% women in committed heterosexual relationships from Tehran, Iran. Results indicate a positive association between consideration of cosmetic surgery and Benefit-Provisioning mate retention behaviors for women, but not men. There was no association between consideration of cosmetic surgery and Cost-Inflicting mate retention behaviors. Women therefore may consider cosmetic surgery to improve their physical attractiveness as part of a Benefit-Provisioning strategy to retain a long-term mate. We discuss limitations of the study and highlight future directions for research from an evolutionary perspective.

Consideration of Cosmetic Surgery As Part of Women’s Benefit-Provisioning Mate Retention Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Atari, Mohammad; Barbaro, Nicole; Sela, Yael; Shackelford, Todd K.; Chegeni, Razieh

2017-01-01

Individuals perform mate retention behaviors to minimize the risk of partner infidelity and relationship dissolution. The current study investigates whether consideration of cosmetic surgery can be conceptualized as part of a broader strategy of mate retention for women, but not men. We hypothesized that women’s consideration of cosmetic surgery would be positively associated with performance frequencies of Benefit-Provisioning and Cost-Inflicting mate retention behaviors. We recruited 203 individuals (54% women) in committed heterosexual relationships from Tehran, Iran. Results indicate a positive association between consideration of cosmetic surgery and Benefit-Provisioning mate retention behaviors for women, but not men. There was no association between consideration of cosmetic surgery and Cost-Inflicting mate retention behaviors. Women therefore may consider cosmetic surgery to improve their physical attractiveness as part of a Benefit-Provisioning strategy to retain a long-term mate. We discuss limitations of the study and highlight future directions for research from an evolutionary perspective. PMID:28855884

Risk Assessment as an Environmental Management Tool: Considerations for Freshwater Wetlands

Science.gov (United States)

A. Dennis Lemly

1997-01-01

This paper presents a foundation for improving the risk assessment process for freshwater wetlands. Integrating wetland science, i.e., use of an ecosystem-based approach, is the key concept. Each biotic and abiotic wetland component should be identified and its contribution to ecosystem functions and societal values determined when deciding whether a stressor poses an...

Coupling mode-destination accessibility with seismic risk assessment to identify at-risk communities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, Mahalia; Baker, Jack W.

2016-01-01

In this paper, we develop a framework for coupling mode-destination accessibility with quantitative seismic risk assessment to identify communities at high risk for travel disruptions after an earthquake. Mode-destination accessibility measures the ability of people to reach destinations they desire. We use a probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure, including a stochastic set of earthquake events, ground-motion intensity maps, damage maps, and realizations of traffic and accessibility impacts. For a case study of the San Francisco Bay Area, we couple our seismic risk framework with a practical activity-based traffic model. As a result, we quantify accessibility risk probabilistically by community and household type. We find that accessibility varies more strongly as a function of travelers' geographic location than as a function of their income class, and we identify particularly at-risk communities. We also observe that communities more conducive to local trips by foot or bike are predicted to be less impacted by losses in accessibility. This work shows the potential to link quantitative risk assessment methodologies with high-resolution travel models used by transportation planners. Quantitative risk metrics of this type should have great utility for planners working to reduce risk to a region's infrastructure systems. - Highlights: • We couple mode-destination accessibility with probabilistic seismic risk assessment. • Results identify communities at high risk for post-earthquake travel disruptions. • Accessibility varies more as a function of home location than by income. • Our model predicts reduced accessibility risk for more walking-friendly communities.

Vector-field statistics for the analysis of time varying clinical gait data.

Science.gov (United States)

Donnelly, C J; Alexander, C; Pataky, T C; Stannage, K; Reid, S; Robinson, M A

2017-01-01

In clinical settings, the time varying analysis of gait data relies heavily on the experience of the individual(s) assessing these biological signals. Though three dimensional kinematics are recognised as time varying waveforms (1D), exploratory statistical analysis of these data are commonly carried out with multiple discrete or 0D dependent variables. In the absence of an a priori 0D hypothesis, clinicians are at risk of making type I and II errors in their analyis of time varying gait signatures in the event statistics are used in concert with prefered subjective clinical assesment methods. The aim of this communication was to determine if vector field waveform statistics were capable of providing quantitative corroboration to practically significant differences in time varying gait signatures as determined by two clinically trained gait experts. The case study was a left hemiplegic Cerebral Palsy (GMFCS I) gait patient following a botulinum toxin (BoNT-A) injection to their left gastrocnemius muscle. When comparing subjective clinical gait assessments between two testers, they were in agreement with each other for 61% of the joint degrees of freedom and phases of motion analysed. For tester 1 and tester 2, they were in agreement with the vector-field analysis for 78% and 53% of the kinematic variables analysed. When the subjective analyses of tester 1 and tester 2 were pooled together and then compared to the vector-field analysis, they were in agreement for 83% of the time varying kinematic variables analysed. These outcomes demonstrate that in principle, vector-field statistics corroborates with what a team of clinical gait experts would classify as practically meaningful pre- versus post time varying kinematic differences. The potential for vector-field statistics to be used as a useful clinical tool for the objective analysis of time varying clinical gait data is established. Future research is recommended to assess the usefulness of vector-field analyses

End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Stig V.; Rangvid, Jesper

2015-01-01

We show that macroeconomic growth at the end of the year (fourth quarter or December) strongly influences expected returns on risky financial assets, whereas economic growth during the rest of the year does not. We find this pattern for many different asset classes, across different time periods......, and for US and international data. We also show that movements in the surplus consumption ratio of Campbell and Cochrane (1999) , a theoretically well-founded measure of time-varying risk aversion linked to macroeconomic growth, influence expected returns stronger during the fourth quarter than the other...

RISK INTEGRATION MECHANISMS AND APPROACHES IN BANKING INDUSTRY

OpenAIRE

JIANPING LI; JICHUANG FENG; XIAOLEI SUN; MINGLU LI

2012-01-01

Recently, the number of consultative documents and research papers that discuss risk integration has grown considerably. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the work done on risk integration in the banking industry. This survey includes: (1) risk integration methods within regulatory frameworks and the banking industry; (2) challenges of risk integration; (3) risk interaction mechanisms; (4) development of risk integration approaches; (5) risk interaction results: diversification ve...

Risk-based regulation - an NRC perspective and status

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, T.L.; Murphy, J.A.

1993-01-01

The consideration of risk in regulatory decision making has traditionally been part of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) policy and practice. In the early days of regulation, this consideration was more qualitative in nature and was reflected in prescriptive/deterministic regulatory requirements. However, with the development of quantitative risk assessment methods, more detailed and comprehensive (although not complete) risk information on nuclear power plants is available to the designer, operator, and regulator. The availability of such information provides an opportunity to assess the need for change in the current regulatory structure and to develop future regulatory requirements in a less prescriptive, more performance-oriented fashion

Associations Between AUDIT-C and Mortality Vary by Age and Sex

Science.gov (United States)

Bradley, Katharine A.; Bowe, Thomas; Henderson, Patricia; Moos, Rudolf

2010-01-01

Abstract We sought to determine the sex- and age-specific risk of mortality associated with scores on the 3-item Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test–Consumption (AUDIT-C) questionnaire using data from a national sample of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients. Men (N = 215,924) and women (N = 9168) who completed the AUDIT-C in a patient survey were followed for 24 months. AUDIT-C categories (0, 1–4, 5–8, 9–12) were evaluated as predictors of mortality in logistic regression models, adjusted for age, race, education, marital status, smoking, depression, and comorbidities. For women, AUDIT-C scores of 9–12 were associated with a significantly increased risk of death compared to the AUDIT-C 1-4 group (odds ratio [OR] 7.09; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.67, 18.82). For men overall, AUDIT-C scores of 5–8 and 9–12 were associated with increased risk of death compared to the AUDIT-C 1-4 group (OR 1.13, 95% CI = 1.05, 1.21, and OR 1.63, 95% CI = 1.45, 1.84, respectively) but these associations varied by age. These results provide sex- and age-tailored risk information that clinicians can use in evidence-based conversations with patients about the health-related risks of their alcohol consumption. This study adds to the growing literature establishing the AUDIT-C as a scaled marker of alcohol-related risk or “vital sign” that might facilitate the detection and management of alcohol-related risks and problems. (Population Health Management 2010;13:263–268) PMID:20879907

Management of Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Chronic Inflammatory Diseases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindhardsen, Jesper; Kristensen, Søren Lund; Ahlehoff, Ole

2016-01-01

An increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been observed in a range of chronic inflammatory diseases (CID), including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), psoriasis, inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The increased risk of CVDs and reduced life expectancy...... considerable interest in recent years. We briefly summarize the current level of evidence of the association between CIDs and CVD and cardiovascular risk management recommendations. Perspectives of ongoing and planned trials are discussed in consideration of potential ways to improve primary and secondary CVD...

DOE handbook: Design considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-04-01

The Design Considerations Handbook includes information and suggestions for the design of systems typical to nuclear facilities, information specific to various types of special facilities, and information useful to various design disciplines. The handbook is presented in two parts. Part 1, which addresses design considerations, includes two sections. The first addresses the design of systems typically used in nuclear facilities to control radiation or radioactive materials. Specifically, this part addresses the design of confinement systems and radiation protection and effluent monitoring systems. The second section of Part 1 addresses the design of special facilities (i.e., specific types of nonreactor nuclear facilities). The specific design considerations provided in this section were developed from review of DOE 6430.1A and are supplemented with specific suggestions and considerations from designers with experience designing and operating such facilities. Part 2 of the Design Considerations Handbook describes good practices and design principles that should be considered in specific design disciplines, such as mechanical systems and electrical systems. These good practices are based on specific experiences in the design of nuclear facilities by design engineers with related experience. This part of the Design Considerations Handbook contains five sections, each of which applies to a particular engineering discipline

DOE handbook: Design considerations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-04-01

The Design Considerations Handbook includes information and suggestions for the design of systems typical to nuclear facilities, information specific to various types of special facilities, and information useful to various design disciplines. The handbook is presented in two parts. Part 1, which addresses design considerations, includes two sections. The first addresses the design of systems typically used in nuclear facilities to control radiation or radioactive materials. Specifically, this part addresses the design of confinement systems and radiation protection and effluent monitoring systems. The second section of Part 1 addresses the design of special facilities (i.e., specific types of nonreactor nuclear facilities). The specific design considerations provided in this section were developed from review of DOE 6430.1A and are supplemented with specific suggestions and considerations from designers with experience designing and operating such facilities. Part 2 of the Design Considerations Handbook describes good practices and design principles that should be considered in specific design disciplines, such as mechanical systems and electrical systems. These good practices are based on specific experiences in the design of nuclear facilities by design engineers with related experience. This part of the Design Considerations Handbook contains five sections, each of which applies to a particular engineering discipline.

Extracting objective estimates of sedentary behavior from accelerometer data: measurement considerations for surveillance and research applications.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Youngdeok Kim

Full Text Available Accelerometer-based activity monitors are widely used in research and surveillance applications for quantifying sedentary behavior (SB and physical activity (PA. Considerable research has been done to refine methods for assessing PA, but relatively little attention has been given to operationalizing SB parameters (i.e., sedentary time and breaks from accelerometer data - particularly in relation to health outcomes. This study investigated: (a the accrued patterns of sedentary time and breaks; and (b the associations of sedentary time and breaks in different bout durations with cardiovascular risk factors.Accelerometer data on 5,917 adults from the National Health Examination and Nutrition Survey (NHANES 2003-2006 were used. Sedentary time and breaks at different bout durations (i.e., 1, 2-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, and ≥ 30-min were obtained using a threshold of < 100 counts per minute. Sedentary time and breaks were regressed on cardiovascular risk factors (waist circumference, triglyceride, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and body mass index across bout durations.The results revealed that the majority of sedentary time occurred within relatively short bout durations (≈ 70% and ≈ 85% for < 5-min and < 10-min, respectively. The associations of sedentary time and breaks with health outcomes varied depending on how bout time was defined. Estimates of SB parameters based on bout durations of 5 min or shorter were associated with reduced cardiovascular risk factors while durations longer than 10-min were generally associated with increased risk factors.The present study demonstrates that the duration of sedentary bouts should be further considered when operationalizing the SB parameters from accelerometer data. The threshold of 5 minutes to define a bout is defensible, but a 10 minute threshold would provide a more conservative estimate to clearly capture the prolonged nature of sedentary behavior. Additional research is

Differential impact of contraceptive methods on seizures varies by antiepileptic drug category: Findings of the Epilepsy Birth Control Registry.

Science.gov (United States)

Herzog, Andrew G; Mandle, Hannah B; Cahill, Kaitlyn E; Fowler, Kristen M; Hauser, W Allen

2016-07-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether categories of contraception differ in their impact on seizures in women with epilepsy and whether the impact varies by antiepileptic drug category. Retrospective survey data came from 2712 contraceptive experiences reported by 1144 women with epilepsy. We compared risk ratios for reports of increase and decrease in seizure frequency on hormonal versus nonhormonal contraception, stratified by antiepileptic drug categories. More women with epilepsy reported a change in seizures on hormonal (28.2%) than on nonhormonal contraception (9.7%) (pcontraception (4.2%) was 4.47 (pcontraception (5.5%) was 1.71, pcontraception, the risk ratio for seizure increase was greater than for decrease (1.98, pmethod with a greater risk ratio for seizure decrease than combined pills. Seizure increase was greater for hormonal than nonhormonal contraception for each antiepileptic drug category (pcontraception, relative to the non-enzyme-inducing antiepileptic drug category which had the lowest rate, each of the other categories had significantly greater risks for seizure increase, especially the enzyme-inhibiting (valproate) category (risk ratio=2.53, p=0.0002). The findings provide community-based, epidemiological survey evidence that contraceptive methods may differ in their impact on seizures and that this impact may vary by antiepileptic drug category. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Consideration of early closure or continued operation of a nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-07-01

This publication provides information to management and executives of electrical utilities responsible for the operation of nuclear power plants who are tasked with decision making related to early closures or continued operation. This information is based on the experiences of a number of countries in addressing a spectrum of issues broader than only the economics of the operation of the plant itself. Any major decision involving changes in direction for a major investment such as a nuclear power plant has the potential to incur considerable additional costs for stakeholders. Major economic risks can be unexpectedly encountered when decisions based on a simplified economic understanding of energy options are successfully challenged on the grounds that choices and decisions have been made without accounting for some environmental, social or economic issues which are considered of prime significance to important stakeholders. Such risks include not only changes in project scope and delays in project implementation due to re-evaluations necessitated by such challenges, but risks related to the effectiveness, efficiency and safety of ongoing operations or shutdown maintenance of the nuclear power plant. Additional risks encountered at this stage are the adequacy of the decommissioning fund and the need to establish a process whereby the availability of adequate funds will be assured at the time of the final plant shutdown. This publication provides information on several of these additional issues important to key stakeholders, and on methods that allow for their assessment and consideration when developing recommendations related to early closures or continued operations of a NPP. This publication consists of two parts: Part I: Includes a discussion of the main issues for consideration, with emphasis on issues important to stakeholders in addition to plant owners. Part II: Provides an example of a basic analytical approach to the assessment of plant life cycle

Approaches and methods of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowe, W.D.

1983-01-01

The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

Quantifying risk over the life course - latency, age-related susceptibility, and other time-varying exposure metrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Molin; Liao, Xiaomei; Laden, Francine; Spiegelman, Donna

2016-06-15

Identification of the latency period and age-related susceptibility, if any, is an important aspect of assessing risks of environmental, nutritional, and occupational exposures. We consider estimation and inference for latency and age-related susceptibility in relative risk and excess risk models. We focus on likelihood-based methods for point and interval estimation of the latency period and age-related windows of susceptibility coupled with several commonly considered exposure metrics. The method is illustrated in a study of the timing of the effects of constituents of air pollution on mortality in the Nurses' Health Study. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Amarenco, Pierre; LaRosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J. M.; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; de Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L. J.

2016-01-01

Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and residual

Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Van Der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J G; Kastelein, John J P; Amarenco, Pierre; Larosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J M; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; De Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L J

2016-01-01

Background: Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and

The Architecture of Financial Risk Management Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iosif ZIMAN

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The architecture of systems dedicated to risk management is probably one of the more complex tasks to tackle in the world of finance. Financial risk has been at the center of attention since the explosive growth of financial markets and even more so after the 2008 financial crisis. At multiple levels, financial companies, financial regulatory bodies, governments and cross-national regulatory bodies, all have put the subject of financial risk in particular and the way it is calculated, managed, reported and monitored under intense scrutiny. As a result the technology underpinnings which support the implementation of financial risk systems has evolved considerably and has become one of the most complex areas involving systems and technology in the context of the financial industry. We present the main paradigms, require-ments and design considerations when undertaking the implementation of risk system and give examples of user requirements, sample product coverage and performance parameters.

Producers' Complex Risk Management Choices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pennings, J.M.E.; Isengildina, O.; Irwin, S.H.; Garcia, P.; Good, D.L.

2008-01-01

Producers have a wide variety of risk management instruments available, making their choice(s) complex. The way producers deal with this complexity can vary and may influence the impact that the determinants, such as risk aversion, have on their choices. A recently developed choice bracketing

Design consideration on severe accident for future LWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Omoto, A.

1998-01-01

Utilities' Severe Accident Management strategies, selected based on Individual Plant Examination, are in the process of implementation for each operating plant. Activities for the next generation LWR design are going on by Utilities, NSSS vendors and Research Institutes. The proposed new designs vary from evolutionary design to revolutionary design such as the supercritical LWR. Discussion on the consideration of Severe Accident in the design of next generation LWR is being held to establish the industry's self-regulatory document on containment design and its performance, which ABWR-IER (Improved Evolutionary Reactor) on the part of BWR and Evolutionary APWR and New PWR21 on the part of PWR are expected to comply. Conceptual design study for ABWR-IER will illustrate an example of design approach for the prevention and mitigation of Severe Accident and its impact on capital cost

Brain tissue strains vary with head impact location: A possible explanation for increased concussion risk in struck versus striking football players.

Science.gov (United States)

Elkin, Benjamin S; Gabler, Lee F; Panzer, Matthew B; Siegmund, Gunter P

2018-03-29

On-field football helmet impacts over a large range of severities have caused concussions in some players but not in other players. One possible explanation for this variability is the struck player's helmet impact location. We examined the effect of impact location on regional brain tissue strain when input energy was held constant. Laboratory impacts were performed at 12 locations distributed over the helmet and the resulting head kinematics were simulated in two finite element models of the brain: the Simulated Injury Monitor and the Global Human Body Model Consortium brain model. Peak kinematics, injury metrics and brain strain varied significantly with impact location. Differences in impact location explained 33 to 37% of the total variance in brain strain for the whole brain and cerebrum, considerably more than the variance explained by impact location for the peak resultant head kinematics (8 to 23%) and slightly more than half of the variance explained by the difference in closing speed (57 to 61%). Both finite element models generated similar strain results, with minor variations for impacts that generated multi-axial rotations, larger variations in brainstem strains for some impact locations and a small bias for the cerebellum. Based on this experimental and computational simulation study, impact location on the football helmet has a large effect on regional brain tissue strain. We also found that the lowest strains consistently occurred in impacts to the crown and forehead, helmet locations commonly associated with the striking player. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Update on Zika Virus: Considerations for the Traveling Athlete.

Science.gov (United States)

Toresdahl, Brett G; Asif, Irfan M

2016-09-01

As public health experts work to contain the outbreak of Zika virus in South America and minimize the devastating prenatal complications, the international sports community prepares for the 2016 Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Athletes have publicly expressed concern regarding the health risks of competition in Zika-endemic areas.(33) Ensuring the safety of the athletes during training and competition is the primary role of the team physician. Special consideration is needed for sports teams preparing for travel to areas affected by Zika virus. © 2016 The Author(s).

[Anesthetic considerations in sickle cell anemia: a case report].

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Meré, L A; Sopena-Zubiría, L A; Alvarez-Blanco, M

2009-01-01

Sickle cell anemia is the most common hemoglobinopathy. Advances in therapeutic techniques and anesthetic procedures have led to a considerable increase in the success of surgical procedures in these patients. We report the case of a 16-year-old black boy diagnosed with sickle cell anemia and beta-thalassemia who presented with chronic osteomyelitis of the tibia. He was scheduled for debridement of the lesion and musculocutaneous flap repair. We emphasize the importance of communication between anesthesiologists, surgeons, and hematologists in the perioperative period in order to determine the risk of complications and anticipate them.

Ethical considerations of worksite health promotion: an exploration of stakeholders' views.

Science.gov (United States)

van Berkel, Jantien; Meershoek, Agnes; Janssens, Rien M J P A; Boot, Cécile R L; Proper, Karin I; van der Beek, Allard J

2014-05-16

Developing, implementing and evaluating worksite health promotion requires dealing with all stakeholders involved, such as employers, employees, occupational physicians, insurance companies, providers, labour unions and research and knowledge institutes. Although worksite health promotion is becoming more common, empirical research on ethical considerations of worksite health promotion is scarce. We explored the views of stakeholders involved in worksite health promotion in focus group discussions and we described the ethical considerations that result from differences between these views. The focus group discussions were organised per stakeholder group. Data were analysed according to the constant comparison method. Our analyses show that although the definition of occupational health is the same for all stakeholders, namely 'being able to perform your job', there seem to be important differences in the views on what constitutes a risk factor to occupational health. According to the employees, risk factors to occupational health are prevailingly job-related. Labour unions agree with them, but other stakeholders, including the employer, particularly see employee-related issues such as lifestyle behaviour as risk factors to occupational health. The difference in definition of occupational health risk factors translates into the same categorisation of worksite health promotion; employee-related activities and work-related activities. The difference in conceptualisation of occupational health risk factors and worksite health promotion resonates in the way stakeholders understand 'responsibility' for lifestyle behaviour. Even though all stakeholders agree on whose responsibility lifestyle behaviour is, namely that of the employee, the meaning of 'responsibility' differs between employees, and employers. For employees, responsibility means autonomy, while for employers and other stakeholders, responsibility equals duty. This difference may in turn contribute to

Ethical considerations of worksite health promotion: an exploration of stakeholders’ views

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Developing, implementing and evaluating worksite health promotion requires dealing with all stakeholders involved, such as employers, employees, occupational physicians, insurance companies, providers, labour unions and research and knowledge institutes. Although worksite health promotion is becoming more common, empirical research on ethical considerations of worksite health promotion is scarce. Methods We explored the views of stakeholders involved in worksite health promotion in focus group discussions and we described the ethical considerations that result from differences between these views. The focus group discussions were organised per stakeholder group. Data were analysed according to the constant comparison method. Results Our analyses show that although the definition of occupational health is the same for all stakeholders, namely ‘being able to perform your job’, there seem to be important differences in the views on what constitutes a risk factor to occupational health. According to the employees, risk factors to occupational health are prevailingly job-related. Labour unions agree with them, but other stakeholders, including the employer, particularly see employee-related issues such as lifestyle behaviour as risk factors to occupational health. The difference in definition of occupational health risk factors translates into the same categorisation of worksite health promotion; employee-related activities and work-related activities. The difference in conceptualisation of occupational health risk factors and worksite health promotion resonates in the way stakeholders understand ‘responsibility’ for lifestyle behaviour. Even though all stakeholders agree on whose responsibility lifestyle behaviour is, namely that of the employee, the meaning of ‘responsibility’ differs between employees, and employers. For employees, responsibility means autonomy, while for employers and other stakeholders, responsibility equals duty. This

Some statistical considerations related to the estimation of cancer risk following exposure to ionizing radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Land, C.E.; Pierce, D.A.

1983-01-01

Statistical theory and methodology provide the logical structure for scientific inference about the cancer risk associated with exposure to ionizing radiation. Although much is known about radiation carcinogenesis, the risk associated with low-level exposures is difficult to assess because it is too small to measure directly. Estimation must therefore depend upon mathematical models which relate observed risks at high exposure levels to risks at lower exposure levels. Extrapolated risk estimates obtained using such models are heavily dependent upon assumptions about the shape of the dose-response relationship, the temporal distribution of risk following exposure, and variation of risk according to variables such as age at exposure, sex, and underlying population cancer rates. Expanded statistical models, which make explicit certain assumed relationships between different data sets, can be used to strengthen inferences by incorporating relevant information from diverse sources. They also allow the uncertainties inherent in information from related data sets to be expressed in estimates which partially depend upon that information. To the extent that informed opinion is based upon a valid assessment of scientific data, the larger context of decision theory, which includes statistical theory, provides a logical framework for the incorporation into public policy decisions of the informational content of expert opinion

Different Categories of Business Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simona-Valeria TOMA

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Every business organisation involves some element of risk. Unmitigated risks can result in lost opportunity, financial losses, loss of reputation, or loss of the right to operate in a jurisdiction. Like any other risk type, understanding business risks is quite important for every business to garner profits instead of facing losses. A business risk is a universal risk type; this means that every business in the world faces business risks. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the different categories of business risk in order to create the appropriate strategies. The aim of this paper is to describe the most important categories of business risks and to make sure that every type of risk receives equal treatment and consideration.

A varying-α brane world cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Youm, Donam

2001-08-01

We study the brane world cosmology in the RS2 model where the electric charge varies with time in the manner described by the varying fine-structure constant theory of Bekenstein. We map such varying electric charge cosmology to the dual variable-speed-of-light cosmology by changing system of units. We comment on cosmological implications for such cosmological models. (author)

Risk factors for child maltreatment recurrence: An updated systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

White, Oliver G; Hindley, Nick; Jones, David P H

2015-10-01

Children who have been maltreated are at increased risk of further maltreatment. Identification of those at highest risk of further maltreatment is a priority for professionals working in child protection services. The current study is intended to consolidate and expand on previous work on recurrence of child maltreatment. It has sought to identify risk factors for maltreatment recurrence in the recent literature in the expectation that this may help in the practical identification of children at risk. We conducted a systematic review of cohort studies published between 2003 and 2009, identifying factors associated with maltreatment recurrence in children. Studies included demonstrated differing levels of substantiation of maltreatment. Fifteen studies met inclusion criteria but showed significant heterogeneity, varying in setting, recruitment of subjects, types of maltreatment considered and length of follow-up. Previous findings were replicated and expanded in the current study in relation to a range of factors, including rates of maltreatment recurrence, maltreatment types, frequency of previous episodes of maltreatment, child and family considerations, home environment and service provision. Factors were identified irrespective of level of maltreatment substantiation. This study provides further systematic evidence of the existence of a number of factors associated with child maltreatment recurrence. It points to the possibility of practical application of its findings within the wider context of decision making in child protection services, with the ultimate aim of reducing recurrence of maltreatment in individual cases. © The Author(s) 2014.

Chemical Mixtures and Epidemiologic Fundamentals for Risk Assessment Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Risk management options are increasingly being considered early in the risk assessment process to help scope the considerations and bound the inherent complexities related to potential exposures, risk and future clean-up decisions (including acceptable pollutant levels) related t...

On Modeling Risk Shocks

OpenAIRE

Dorofeenko, Victor; Lee, Gabriel; Salyer, Kevin; Strobel, Johannes

2016-01-01

Within the context of a financial accelerator model, we model time-varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) through the use of a mixture Normal model with time variation in the weights applied to the underlying distributions characterizing entrepreneur productivity. Specifically, we model capital producers (i.e. the entrepreneurs) as either low-risk (relatively small second moment for productivity) and high-risk (relatively large second moment for productivity) and the fraction of both types is...

Online Social Networking, Sexual Risk and Protective Behaviors: Considerations for Clinicians and Researchers.

Science.gov (United States)

Holloway, Ian W; Dunlap, Shannon; Del Pino, Homero E; Hermanstyne, Keith; Pulsipher, Craig; Landovitz, Raphael J

2014-09-01

Online social networking refers to the use of internet-based technologies that facilitate connection and communication between users. These platforms may be accessed via computer or mobile device (e.g., tablet, smartphone); communication between users may include linking of profiles, posting of text, photo and video content, instant messaging and email. This review provides an overview of recent research on the relationship between online social networking and sexual risk and protective behaviors with a focus on use of social networking sites (SNS) among young people and populations at high risk for sexually transmitted infections (STIs). While findings are mixed, the widespread use of SNS for sexual communication and partner seeking presents opportunities for the delivery and evaluation of public health interventions. Results of SNS-based interventions to reduce sexual risk are synthesized in order to offer hands-on advice for clinicians and researchers interested in engaging patients and study participants via online social networking.

Seroprevalence and Risk Factors of Chlamydia Infection in Domestic Rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoting Ni

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Chlamydia spp. are obligate intracellular bacteria distributed all over the world, known to cause various forms of diseases in animals and humans. In the present study, a serological survey was conducted to detect the seroprevalence and risk factors associated with rabbit chlamydiosis in northeast China, including Liaoning province, Jilin province, Heilongjiang province, and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Antibodies to Chlamydia were determined by indirect hemagglutination assay (IHA. The overall seroprevalence was estimated at 17.88% in total of 800 blood samples. The Chlamydia seroprevalence varied in domestic rabbits from different factors, and genders of domestic rabbits were considered as major risk factors associated with Chlamydia infection. Our study revealed a widespread and high prevalence of Chlamydia infection in domestic rabbits in northeast China, with higher exposure risk in female domestic rabbits. These findings suggested the potential importance of domestic rabbits in the transmission of zoonotic Chlamydia infection, and thus Chlamydia should be taken into consideration in diagnosing rabbit diseases. To our knowledge, there is no report of Chlamydia infection in domestic rabbits in China and the results extend the host range for Chlamydia, which has important implications for public health and the local economy.

Proximal risk factors and suicide methods among suicide completers from national suicide mortality data 2004-2006 in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Im, Jeong-Soo; Choi, Soon Ho; Hong, Duho; Seo, Hwa Jeong; Park, Subin; Hong, Jin Pyo

2011-01-01

This study was conducted to examine differences in proximal risk factors and suicide methods by sex and age in the national suicide mortality data in Korea. Data were collected from the National Police Agency and the National Statistical Office of Korea on suicide completers from 2004 to 2006. The 31,711 suicide case records were used to analyze suicide rates, methods, and proximal risk factors by sex and age. Suicide rate increased with age, especially in men. The most common proximal risk factor for suicide was medical illness in both sexes. The most common proximal risk factor for subjects younger than 30 years was found to be a conflict in relationships with family members, partner, or friends. Medical illness was found to increase in prevalence as a risk factor with age. Hanging/Suffocation was the most common suicide method used by both sexes. The use of drug/pesticide poisoning to suicide increased with age. A fall from height or hanging/suffocation was more popular in the younger age groups. Because proximal risk factors and suicide methods varied with sex and age, different suicide prevention measures are required after consideration of both of these parameters. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Residential segregation and the health of African-American infants: does the effect vary by prevalence?

Science.gov (United States)

Nyarko, Kwame A; Wehby, George L

2012-10-01

Segregation effects may vary between areas (e.g., counties) of low and high low birth weight (LBW; birth (PTB; rates due to interactions with area differences in risks and resources. We assess whether the effects of residential segregation on county-level LBW and PTB rates for African-American infants vary by the prevalence of these conditions. The study sample includes 368 counties of 100,000 or more residents and at least 50 African-American live births in 2000. Residentially segregated counties are identified alternatively by county-level dissimilarity and isolation indices. Quantile regression is used to assess how residential segregation affects the entire distributions of county-level LBW and PTB rates (i.e. by prevalence). Residential segregation increases LBW and PTB rates significantly in areas of low prevalence, but has no such effects for areas of high prevalence. As a sensitivity analysis, we use metropolitan statistical area level data and obtain similar results. Our findings suggest that residential segregation has adverse effects mainly in areas of low prevalence of LBW and preterm birth, which are expected overall to have fewer risk factors and more resources for infant health, but not in high prevalence areas, which are expected to have more risk factors and fewer resources. Residential policies aimed at area resource improvements may be more effective.

Microbiological criteria for Listeria monocytogenes in foods under special consideration of risk assessment approaches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nørrung, Birgit

2000-01-01

This paper shortly summarizes data related to risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes. From available data on risk assessment, it is concluded that the levels of L. monocytogenes consumed is an important factor affecting the incidence of listeriosis. Foods that do not support the growth of L....... monocytogenes are unlikely to be a source of listeriosis, whereas foods that support the growth to high levels, should be the target of risk management efforts. Based on current epidemiological information from several countries, a concentration of L. monocytogenes not exceeding 100/g of food at the time...... of L. monocytogenes in the food during prevailing storage and distribution conditions is needed....

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

Science.gov (United States)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

Risk Management Practices of Multinational and indigenous ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Construction projects' high uncertainty rates make them unattractive to non-risk takers. Construction companies are therefore necessarily risk takers, albeit, to varying degrees. This study made an inquiry into the risk management (RM) practices of multinational and indigenous construction companies (MCCs and ICCs, ...

Lane-changing model with dynamic consideration of driver's propensity

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiaoyuan; Wang, Jianqiang; Zhang, Jinglei; Ban, Xuegang Jeff

2015-07-01

Lane-changing is the driver's selection result of the satisfaction degree in different lane driving conditions. There are many different factors influencing lane-changing behavior, such as diversity, randomicity and difficulty of measurement. So it is hard to accurately reflect the uncertainty of drivers' lane-changing behavior. As a result, the research of lane-changing models is behind that of car-following models. Driver's propensity is her/his emotion state or the corresponding preference of a decision or action toward the real objective traffic situations under the influence of various dynamic factors. It represents the psychological characteristics of the driver in the process of vehicle operation and movement. It is an important factor to influence lane-changing. In this paper, dynamic recognition of driver's propensity is considered during simulation based on its time-varying discipline and the analysis of the driver's psycho-physic characteristics. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to quantify the hierarchy of driver's dynamic lane-changing decision-making process, especially the influence of the propensity. The model is validated using real data. Test results show that the developed lane-changing model with the dynamic consideration of a driver's time-varying propensity and the AHP method are feasible and with improved accuracy.

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

Comparative assessment of nanomaterial definitions and safety evaluation considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Boverhof, Darrell R; Bramante, Christina M; Butala, John H; Clancy, Shaun F; Lafranconi, Mark; West, Jay; Gordon, Steve C

2015-10-01

Nanomaterials continue to bring promising advances to science and technology. In concert have come calls for increased regulatory oversight to ensure their appropriate identification and evaluation, which has led to extensive discussions about nanomaterial definitions. Numerous nanomaterial definitions have been proposed by government, industry, and standards organizations. We conducted a comprehensive comparative assessment of existing nanomaterial definitions put forward by governments to highlight their similarities and differences. We found that the size limits used in different definitions were inconsistent, as were considerations of other elements, including agglomerates and aggregates, distributional thresholds, novel properties, and solubility. Other important differences included consideration of number size distributions versus weight distributions and natural versus intentionally-manufactured materials. Overall, the definitions we compared were not in alignment, which may lead to inconsistent identification and evaluation of nanomaterials and could have adverse impacts on commerce and public perceptions of nanotechnology. We recommend a set of considerations that future discussions of nanomaterial definitions should consider for describing materials and assessing their potential for health and environmental impacts using risk-based approaches within existing assessment frameworks. Our intent is to initiate a dialogue aimed at achieving greater clarity in identifying those nanomaterials that may require additional evaluation, not to propose a formal definition. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methods for Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alverbro, Karin

2010-01-01

Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

The future of risk communication and the role of the pharmaceutical industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Chakraborty, Sweta; Bouder, Frederic

2013-02-01

Risk communication is an interactive two-way process that various stakeholders (e.g., patients, regulators, industry) utilize to address prescription drug safety. This paper will specifically examine the pharmaceutical industry's engagement with risk communication as a tool for information exchange with patients and other stakeholders about the associated risks related to its medicines. Risk communications are not solely meant to inform; and rather effective two-way risk communications have the potential to change behavioral outcomes for the purpose of individual and societal benefit. Despite this indispensable role of risk communication for the pharmaceutical industry, more research is needed for the appropriate development and dissemination of risk communications. A crucial missing component for the crafting of pharmaceutical risk communications is the understanding of risk perceptions from the patient/consumer's perspective. This is necessary to see where any divergences in views may lie between the industry and its final consumer, which is crucial in tailoring communications to target a specific erroneous belief or to address what might be deemed as a needed behavioral shift. It is also necessary to develop communications in consideration of the levels of public trust in the industry as well as other perceived actors in the healthcare system. Even the most meticulously crafted and tested risk communications will fail to fulfill their purpose if the role of trust is not taken into consideration. These considerations can lead to the establishment of a "social contract" that effectively addresses what is required from both parties for continued and mutually beneficial interactions. Conducting risk perception research, addressing the role of trust, establishing a social contract, and having a realistic outlook on the impact of risk communications are necessary considerations as pharmaceutical risk communication evolves for the future.

Considerations on the selection and prioritization of information security solutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Cristina RĂDULESCU

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This paper provides a set of guidelines that can be used for prescribing a methodology or a detailed process for selecting and prioritizing security projects or solutions. It is based on the idea that costs of security solutions should be justified by their contribution to ensuring adequate protection of information resources in the organization which implements them. The article reviews general issues of security risks and costs, arguing the need for explicit consideration of information resources security requirements in order to validate decisions concerning security projects implementation. In such an approach, security requirements of information resources are used as a reference system to quantify the benefits and limitations of security solutions defined as alternative or complementary responses to certain security risks as their implementation faces budget constraints.

Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Crete, P.O. Box 2208, 71003 Iraklion, Crete (Greece); Lyraraki, Efrossyni [Department of Radiotherapy and Oncology, University Hospital of Iraklion, 71110 Iraklion, Crete (Greece)

2013-10-15

Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10{sup −5} to 837.4 × 10{sup −5} depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10{sup −5}. The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10{sup −5} and 110.3 × 10{sup −5} for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10{sup −5}.Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by

Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John; Lyraraki, Efrossyni

2013-01-01

Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10 −5 to 837.4 × 10 −5 depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10 −5 . The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10 −5 and 110.3 × 10 −5 for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10 −5 .Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by the treatment parameters, organ

Risk communication related to animal products derived from biotechnology.

Science.gov (United States)

McCrea, D

2005-04-01

Previous chapters of this review have dealt with the key considerations related to the application of biotechnology in veterinary science and animal production. This article explores the theory and practice of risk communication and sets out the basic principles for good risk communication when dealing with new technologies, uncertainty, and cautious and sceptical consumers. After failure to communicate with consumers and stakeholders about the risk to human health from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the 1990s, Government Agencies in the United Kingdom have made significant improvements in risk communication. The official inquiry that followed the BSE crisis concluded that a policy of openness was the correct approach, and this article emphasises the importance of consultation, consistency and transparency. There are, however, many different factors that affect public perception of risk (religious, political, social, cultural, etc.) and developing effective risk communication strategies must take all of these complex issues into consideration.

Differential impact of two risk communications on antipsychotic prescribing to people with dementia in Scotland: segmented regression time series analysis 2001-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Guthrie, Bruce; Clark, Stella A; Reynish, Emma L; McCowan, Colin; Morales, Daniel R

2013-01-01

Regulatory risk communications are an important method for disseminating drug safety information, but their impact varies. Two significant UK risk communications about antipsychotic use in older people with dementia were issued in 2004 and 2009. These varied considerably in their content and dissemination, allowing examination of their differential impact. Segmented regression time-series analysis 2001-2011 for people aged ≥65 years with dementia in 87 Scottish general practices, examining the impact of two pre-specified risk communications in 2004 and 2009 on antipsychotic and other psychotropic prescribing. The percentage of people with dementia prescribed an antipsychotic was 15.9% in quarter 1 2001 and was rising by an estimated 0.6%/quarter before the 2004 risk communication. The 2004 risk communication was sent directly to all prescribers, and specifically recommended review of all patients prescribed relevant drugs. It was associated with an immediate absolute reduction in antipsychotic prescribing of 5.9% (95% CI -6.6 to -5.2) and a change to a stable level of prescribing subsequently. The 2009 risk communication was disseminated in a limited circulation bulletin, and only specifically recommended avoiding initiation if possible. There was no immediate associated impact, but it was associated with a significant decline in prescribing subsequently which appeared driven by a decline in initiation, with the percentage prescribed an antipsychotic falling from 18.4% in Q1 2009 to 13.5% in Q1 2011. There was no widespread substitution of antipsychotics with other psychotropic drugs. The two risk communications were associated with reductions in antipsychotic use, in ways which were compatible with marked differences in their content and dissemination. Further research is needed to ensure that the content and dissemination of regulatory risk communications is optimal, and to track their impact on intended and unintended outcomes. Although rates are falling

Facts and values in risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cross, Frank B.

1998-01-01

Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

1988-03-01

This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

Risk identification in food safety: Strategy and outcomes of the EFSA emerging risks exchange network (EREN), 2010-2014

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Costa, M. C.; Goumperis, T.; Andersson, W.

2017-01-01

should be considered emerging or not, and if it merited further consideration, such as generating data on the issue, starting a full risk assessment and/or consultation of other bodies. According to the emerging risks identification process set in place at EFSA, the issues discussed and found...

Risk communication in environmental assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

1996-08-26

Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

Historic Landslide Data Combined with Sentinel Satellite Data to Improve Modelling for Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Bye, B. L.; Kontoes, C.; Catarino, N.; De Lathouwer, B.; Concalves, P.; Meyer-Arnek, J.; Mueller, A.; Kraft, C.; Grosso, N.; Goor, E.; Voidrot, M. F.; Trypitsidis, A.

2017-12-01

Landslides are geohazards potentially resulting in disasters. Landslides both vary enormously in their distribution in space and time. The surface deformation varies considerably from one type of instability to another. Individual ground instabilities may have a common trigger (extreme rainfall, earthquake), and therefore occur alongside many equivalent occurrences over a large area. This means that they can have a significant regional impact demanding national and international disaster risk reduction strategies. Regional impacts require collaboration across boarders as reflected in The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The data demands related to the SDGs are unprecedented, another factor that will require coordinated efforts at the global, regional and national levels. Data of good quality are vital for governments, international organizations, civil society, the private sector and the general public in order to make informed decisions, included for disaster risk reduction. The NextGEOSS project evolves the European vision of a user driven GEOSS data exploitation for innovation and business, relying on 3 main pillars; engaging communities of practice, delivering technological advancements, and advocating the use of GEOSS. These 3 pillars support the creation and deployment of Earth observation based innovative research activities and commercial services. In this presentation we will explain how one of the 10 NextGEOSS pilots, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), plan to provide an enhanced multi-hazard risk assessment framework based on statistical analysis of long time series of data. Landslide events monitoring and landslides susceptibility estimation will be emphazised. Workflows will be based on models developed in the context of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. Data envisaged to be used are: Radar SAR data; Yearly ground deformation/velocities; Historic landslide inventory; data related to topographic, geological, hydrological

Seismic design considerations for nuclear fuel cycle facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soni, R.S.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Venkat Raj, V.

2001-01-01

During the last few decades, there have been considerable advances in the field of a seismic design of nuclear structures and components housed inside a Nuclear power Plant (NPP). The seismic design and qualification of theses systems and components are carried out through the use of well proven and established theoretical as well as experimental means. Many of the related research works pertaining to these methods are available in the published literature, codes, guides etc. Contrary to this, there is very little information available with regards to the seismic design aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle facilities. This is probably on account of the little importance attached to these facilities from the point of view of seismic loading. In reality, some of these facilities handle a large inventory of radioactive materials and, therefore, these facilities must survive during a seismic event without giving rise to any sort of undue radiological risk to the plant personnel and the public at large. Presented herein in this paper are the seismic design considerations which are adopted for the design of nuclear fuel cycle facilities in India. (author)

Children's exposure to diagnostic medical radiation and cancer risk: epidemiologic and dosimetric considerations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Linet, Martha S.; Rajaraman, Preetha [National Cancer Institute, Radiation Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Bethesda, MD (United States); Kim, Kwang pyo [National Cancer Institute, Radiation Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Bethesda, MD (United States); Kyung Hee University, Department of Nuclear Engineering, Yongin-si, Gyeonggi (Korea)

2009-02-15

While the etiology of most childhood cancers is largely unknown, epidemiologic studies have consistently found an association between exposure to medical radiation during pregnancy and risk of childhood cancer in offspring. The relation between early life diagnostic radiation exposure and occurrence of pediatric cancer risks is less clear. This review summarizes current and historical estimated doses for common diagnostic radiologic procedures as well as the epidemiologic literature on the role of maternal prenatal, children's postnatal and parental preconception diagnostic radiologic procedures on subsequent risk of childhood malignancies. Risk estimates are presented according to factors such as the year of birth of the child, trimester and medical indication for the procedure, and the number of films taken. The paper also discusses limitations of the methods employed in epidemiologic studies to assess pediatric cancer risks, the effects on clinical practice of the results reported from the epidemiologic studies, and clinical and public health policy implications of the findings. Gaps in understanding and additional research needs are identified. Important research priorities include nationwide surveys to estimate fetal and childhood radiation doses from common diagnostic procedures, and epidemiologic studies to quantify pediatric and lifetime cancer risks from prenatal and early childhood exposures to diagnostic radiography, CT, and fluoroscopically guided procedures. (orig.)

Current Considerations About the Elderly and Firearms

Science.gov (United States)

Mertens, Brian

2012-01-01

In the United States, more than 17 million people aged 65 years or older own a firearm. They have the highest rate of suicide by a firearm, and recent data suggest that a disproportionate number apply to carry a concealed weapon. At least one new handgun has been designed and marketed for older people. Memory, thinking, and judgment as well as physical and behavioral competence issues related to an elderly person's safe operation of a motor vehicle apply to firearms, too. Gun availability can pose a particular risk to those with dementia and to their caretakers. The elderly constitute a substantial and rapidly growing population and market segment for whom the public health implications of firearm production, promotion, access, ownership, and use merit consideration. PMID:22390501

Tolerable Time-Varying Overflow on Grass-Covered Slopes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven A. Hughes

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Engineers require estimates of tolerable overtopping limits for grass-covered levees, dikes, and embankments that might experience steady overflow. Realistic tolerance estimates can be used for both resilient design and risk assessment. A simple framework is developed for estimating tolerable overtopping on grass-covered slopes caused by slowly-varying (in time overtopping discharge (e.g., events like storm surges or river flood waves. The framework adapts the well-known Hewlett curves of tolerable limiting velocity as a function of overflow duration. It has been hypothesized that the form of the Hewlett curves suggests that the grass erosion process is governed by the flow work on the slope above a critical threshold velocity (referred to as excess work, and the tolerable erosional limit is reached when the cumulative excess work exceeds a given value determined from the time-dependent Hewlett curves. The cumulative excess work is expressed in terms of overflow discharge above a critical discharge that slowly varies in time, similar to a discharge hydrograph. The methodology is easily applied using forecast storm surge hydrographs at specific locations where wave action is minimal. For preliminary planning purposes, when storm surge hydrographs are unavailable, hypothetical equations for the water level and overflow discharge hydrographs are proposed in terms of the values at maximum overflow and the total duration of overflow. An example application is given to illustrate use of the methodology.

Methodological considerations for disentangling a risk factor's influence on disease incidence versus postdiagnosis survival: The example of obesity and breast and colorectal cancer mortality in the Women's Health Initiative.

Science.gov (United States)

Cespedes Feliciano, Elizabeth M; Prentice, Ross L; Aragaki, Aaron K; Neuhouser, Marian L; Banack, Hailey R; Kroenke, Candyce H; Ho, Gloria Y F; Zaslavsky, Oleg; Strickler, Howard D; Cheng, Ting-Yuan David; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Saquib, Nazmus; Nassir, Rami; Anderson, Garnet; Caan, Bette J

2017-12-01

Often, studies modeling an exposure's influence on time to disease-specific death from study enrollment are incorrectly interpreted as if based on time to death from disease diagnosis. We studied 151,996 postmenopausal women without breast or colorectal cancer in the Women's Health Initiative with weight and height measured at enrollment (1993-1998). Using Cox regression models, we contrast hazard ratios (HR) from two time-scales and corresponding study subpopulations: time to cancer death after enrollment among all women and time to cancer death after diagnosis among only cancer survivors. Median follow-up from enrollment to diagnosis/censoring was 13 years for both breast (7,633 cases) and colorectal cancer (2,290 cases). Median follow-up from diagnosis to death/censoring was 7 years for breast and 5 years for colorectal cancer. In analyses of time from enrollment to death, body mass index (BMI) ≥ 35 kg/m 2 versus 18.5-cancer mortality: HR = 1.99; 95% CI: 1.54, 2.56 for breast cancer (p trend colorectal cancer (p trend = 0.05). However, in analyses of time from diagnosis to cancer death, trends indicated no significant association (for BMI ≥ 35 kg/m 2 , HR = 1.25; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.67 for breast [p trend = 0.33] and HR = 1.18; 95% CI: 0.84, 1.86 for colorectal cancer [p trend = 0.39]). We conclude that a risk factor that increases disease incidence will increase disease-specific mortality. Yet, its influence on postdiagnosis survival can vary, and requires consideration of additional design and analysis issues such as selection bias. Quantitative tools allow joint modeling to compare an exposure's influence on time from enrollment to disease incidence and time from diagnosis to death. © 2017 UICC.

46 CFR 114.550 - Special consideration.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Special consideration. 114.550 Section 114.550 Shipping... consideration. In applying the provisions of this subchapter, the OCMI may give special consideration to... vessel operates must approve any special consideration granted to the vessel. ...

Risk of Malnutrition and Pressure Ulcer in a mixed hospital population. Nutritional risk screening predicting pressure ulcer.

OpenAIRE

Alhaug, Johanne

2016-01-01

Abstract Background and aim Malnutrition and pressure ulcer represent significant health problems for hospital inpatients, in addition to having a considerable impact on local and national health care cost. Sufficient nutritional status is crucial for proper wound healing, and malnutrition is a prominent risk factor for pressure ulcer development. Risk of malnutrition can be identified using standardized screening tools, such as the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002. The objective of this...

Risk assessment and risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.

1978-01-01

With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

32 CFR 643.53 - Consideration.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Consideration. 643.53 Section 643.53 National... Leases § 643.53 Consideration. (a) Unless otherwise authorized by this regulation or directed by the SA, the consideration for a lease of real estate will be the appraised fair market rental value. However...

Banking risk 51: INSOL International (the solvency risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matić Vesna

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Solvency preservation of economic and financial subjects in the context of their functional connectedness has been in the focus of attention and consideration of professional circles last decades. The solvency risk of important economic entities is specific because it can result in broader consequences in the sense of a chain expansion on the wider range of economic and financial subjects. The movement of economic cycles which enter the stage of global economic crises in specific periods has an important influence on the systemic character of the solvency risk. In order to prevent and harmonize solvency risk management in the wider geographic area, INSOL International has been formed, as a worldwide federation of national associations for accountants and lawyers who are specialized in turnaround and insolvency.

Cardiovascular risk status of Afro-origin populations across the spectrum of economic development: findings from the Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Dugas, Lara R; Forrester, Terrence E; Plange-Rhule, Jacob; Bovet, Pascal; Lambert, Estelle V; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon A; Cao, Guichan; Cooper, Richard S; Khatib, Rasha; Tonino, Laura; Riesen, Walter; Korte, Wolfgang; Kliethermes, Stephanie; Luke, Amy

2017-05-12

Cardiovascular risk factors are increasing in most developing countries. To date, however, very little standardized data has been collected on the primary risk factors across the spectrum of economic development. Data are particularly sparse from Africa. In the Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) we examined population-based samples of men and women, ages 25-45 of African ancestry in metropolitan Chicago, Kingston, Jamaica, rural Ghana, Cape Town, South Africa, and the Seychelles. Key measures of cardiovascular disease risk are described. The risk factor profile varied widely in both total summary estimates of cardiovascular risk and in the magnitude of component factors. Hypertension ranged from 7% in women from Ghana to 35% in US men. Total cholesterol was well under 200 mg/dl for all groups, with a mean of 155 mg/dl among men in Ghana, South Africa and Jamaica. Among women total cholesterol values varied relatively little by country, following between 160 and 178 mg/dl for all 5 groups. Levels of HDL-C were virtually identical in men and women from all study sites. Obesity ranged from 64% among women in the US to 2% among Ghanaian men, with a roughly corresponding trend in diabetes. Based on the Framingham risk score a clear trend toward higher total risk in association with socioeconomic development was observed among men, while among women there was considerable overlap, with the US participants having only a modestly higher risk score. These data provide a comprehensive estimate of cardiovascular risk across a range of countries at differing stages of social and economic development and demonstrate the heterogeneity in the character and degree of emerging cardiovascular risk. Severe hypercholesterolemia, as characteristic in the US and much of Western Europe at the onset of the coronary epidemic, is unlikely to be a feature of the cardiovascular risk profile in these countries in the foreseeable future, suggesting that stroke may remain the

Cardiovascular risk status of Afro-origin populations across the spectrum of economic development: findings from the Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lara R. Dugas

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular risk factors are increasing in most developing countries. To date, however, very little standardized data has been collected on the primary risk factors across the spectrum of economic development. Data are particularly sparse from Africa. Methods In the Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS we examined population-based samples of men and women, ages 25–45 of African ancestry in metropolitan Chicago, Kingston, Jamaica, rural Ghana, Cape Town, South Africa, and the Seychelles. Key measures of cardiovascular disease risk are described. Results The risk factor profile varied widely in both total summary estimates of cardiovascular risk and in the magnitude of component factors. Hypertension ranged from 7% in women from Ghana to 35% in US men. Total cholesterol was well under 200 mg/dl for all groups, with a mean of 155 mg/dl among men in Ghana, South Africa and Jamaica. Among women total cholesterol values varied relatively little by country, following between 160 and 178 mg/dl for all 5 groups. Levels of HDL-C were virtually identical in men and women from all study sites. Obesity ranged from 64% among women in the US to 2% among Ghanaian men, with a roughly corresponding trend in diabetes. Based on the Framingham risk score a clear trend toward higher total risk in association with socioeconomic development was observed among men, while among women there was considerable overlap, with the US participants having only a modestly higher risk score. Conclusions These data provide a comprehensive estimate of cardiovascular risk across a range of countries at differing stages of social and economic development and demonstrate the heterogeneity in the character and degree of emerging cardiovascular risk. Severe hypercholesterolemia, as characteristic in the US and much of Western Europe at the onset of the coronary epidemic, is unlikely to be a feature of the cardiovascular risk profile in these

28 CFR 51.34 - Expedited consideration.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Expedited consideration. 51.34 Section 51... consideration. (a) When a submitting authority is required under State law or local ordinance or otherwise finds... the submission be given expedited consideration. The submission should explain why such consideration...

Liquidity policies and systemic risk

OpenAIRE

Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina

2013-01-01

The growth of wholesale-funded credit intermediation has motivated liquidity regulations. We analyze a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which liquidity and capital regulations interact with the supply of risk-free assets. In the model, the endogenously time-varying tightness of liquidity and capital constraints generates intermediaries’ leverage cycle, influencing the pricing of risk and the level of risk in the economy. Our analysis focuses on liquidity policies’ implications ...

Adaptive Immunity to Francisella tularensis and Considerations for Vaccine Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lydia M. Roberts

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Francisella tularensis is an intracellular bacterium that causes the disease tularemia. There are several subspecies of F. tularensis whose ability to cause disease varies in humans. The most virulent subspecies, tularensis, is a Tier One Select Agent and a potential bioweapon. Although considerable effort has made to generate efficacious tularemia vaccines, to date none have been licensed for use in the United States. Despite the lack of a tularemia vaccine, we have learned a great deal about the adaptive immune response the underlies protective immunity. Herein, we detail the animal models commonly used to study tularemia and their recapitulation of human disease, the field's current understanding of vaccine-mediated protection, and discuss the challenges associated with new vaccine development.

Industry challenge to best practice risk communication.

Science.gov (United States)

McEntire, J; Boateng, A

2012-04-01

Effective food safety and food defense risk communication helps to inform consumers without causing panic and alarm. The Risk Communication Team of the Natl. Center for Food Protection and Defense has developed a list of 11 best practices recommended for effective risk communication. These practices, designed for a food defense crisis, are currently applied to food safety issues, since fortunately a food defense crisis has yet to occur. IFT examined the utility of these best practices and the limitations on their use during food safety and food defense crises by academics, trade associations, and the government. It was hypothesized that legal and business considerations as well as the nature of the event would determine the implementation of the best practices. Through the use of focus group meetings, it was discovered that there was a low level of awareness of the best practices. However, stakeholders practiced some aspects of the recommended practices. Participants felt some of the practices were related and could be consolidated. They also agreed that a food defense event will increase the urgency of the communication and include players not typically involved in food safety issues. The challenges reported by the stakeholders varied, but legal liability, as well as the impact their communications could have on an industry, were often cited. From the government perspective, their need to act within their authorities drove some of their actions with respect to communication. Determining the differences in communication limitations during food safety against food defense events can provide key information to further developing and refining risk communications and specific messages targeted for a food defense incident. Effective food safety and food defense risk communication helps to inform consumers without causing panic and alarm. Determining the differences in communication limitations during food safety against food defense events can provide key information to

Health effects of low-level ionising radiation: biological basis for risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Upton, A.C.

1987-01-01

The biological basis for risk assessment is discussed. The risks of carcinogenic effects, teratogenic effects, and genetic (heritable) effects are estimated to vary in proportion with the dose of radiation in the low-dose domain; however, the risks also appear to vary with the LET of the radiation, age at the time of irradiation, and other variables. Although the data suffice to place the risks in perspective with other hazards of modern life, further research to refine the reliability of the risk assessment is called for. (author)

32 CFR 643.74 - Consideration.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Consideration. 643.74 Section 643.74 National... Licenses § 643.74 Consideration. When a license is granted under the authority of an easement or leasing statute, the same rules will apply in regard to consideration as is applicable to the granting of an...

Hedging endowment assurance products under interest rate and mortality risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chen, A.; Mahayni, A.

2007-01-01

This paper analyzes how model misspecification associated with both interest rate and mortality risk influences hedging decisions of insurance companies. For this purpose, diverse risk management strategies which are riskminimizing when model risk is ignored come into consideration. The

Hyponatremia and SIADH: A Case Study for Nursing Consideration.

Science.gov (United States)

Tasler, Teri; Bruce, Susan D

2018-02-01

The leading cause of hyponatremia in patients with cancer is syndrome of inappropriate antidiuretic hormone secretion (SIADH); this oncologic emergency requires immediate intervention. Left untreated, it can result in increased mortality and morbidity. A sodium level less than 135 meq/L is an electrolyte irregularity and defined as hyponatremia. It is extremely critical that oncology nurses are knowledgeable and able to evaluate and determine when patients are in fluid and electrolyte crisis. Nurses should be aware of the specific cancers and treatments that put patients at risk for developing hyponatremia. This article presents a case study for nursing consideration.

Impact of radiobiological considerations on epidemiological inferences of age-dependent radiosensitivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crawford-Brown, D.J.

1983-01-01

Current epidemiological studies of the age-dependent risk of radiogenic carcinomas are based on populations still in the early stages of cancer expression. The result is a set of logical uncertainties concerning the manner in which inferences may be drawn from the existing data. These uncertainties may be formalized and examined through the application of various radiobiological principles developed from more fundamental experimental data. Chief amongst these considerations are the time course of tumor expression, the role of relative and absolute risk models, the distribution of effects between initiation and promotion, the age-dependent fraction of time a critical cell remains in radiosensitive stages and the combinatorics of the critical cellular subpopulations. Each of these and the combinatorics of the critical cellular subpopulations. Each of these principles are examined in light of their impact on the structuring of epidemiologic data and the drawing of inferences concerning age-dependent radiogenic risk. The data on atomic bomb survivors are employed as a relevant example

Zhang neural network for online solution of time-varying convex quadratic program subject to time-varying linear-equality constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Yunong; Li Zhan

2009-01-01

In this Letter, by following Zhang et al.'s method, a recurrent neural network (termed as Zhang neural network, ZNN) is developed and analyzed for solving online the time-varying convex quadratic-programming problem subject to time-varying linear-equality constraints. Different from conventional gradient-based neural networks (GNN), such a ZNN model makes full use of the time-derivative information of time-varying coefficient. The resultant ZNN model is theoretically proved to have global exponential convergence to the time-varying theoretical optimal solution of the investigated time-varying convex quadratic program. Computer-simulation results further substantiate the effectiveness, efficiency and novelty of such ZNN model and method.

Cardiovascular risk profile in shift workers : cardiac control, biological and lifestyle risk factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Amelsvoort, van L.G.P.M.

2000-01-01

Background: Evidence available so far indicates a 40% excess cardiovascular disease risk among shift workers. As, in the Netherlands alone, about one million people are working in shifts, this might have a considerable public health impact. Factors responsible

Musculoskeletal pain in Europe: role of personal, occupational and social risk factors

Science.gov (United States)

Farioli, Andrea; Mattioli, Stefano; Quaglieri, Anna; Curti, Stefania; Violante, Francesco S; Coggon, David

2014-01-01

Objectives Prevalence of musculoskeletal pain in European countries varies considerably. We analyzed data from the fifth European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS) to explore the role of personal, occupational, and social risk factors in determining the national prevalence of musculoskeletal pain. Methods During 2010, 43,816 subjects from 34 countries were interviewed. We analyzed the one-year prevalence of back and neck/upper limb pain. Personal risk factors studied were: sex; age; educational level; socio-economic status; housework or cooking; gardening and repairs; somatising tendency; job demand-control; six physical occupational exposures; and occupational group. Data on national socio-economic risk factors were obtained from eurostat and were available for 29 countries. We fitted Poisson regression models with random intercept on country. Results 35,550 workers entered the main analysis. Among personal risk factors, somatising tendency was the strongest predictor of the symptoms. Major differences were observed by country with back pain more than twice as common in Portugal (63.8%) as Ireland (25.7%), and prevalence rates of neck/upper limb pain ranging from 26.6% in Ireland to 67.7% in Finland. Adjustment by personal risk factors slightly reduced the large variation of prevalence between countries. For back pain, the rates were more homogenous after adjustment for social risk factors. Conclusions Our analysis indicates substantial variation between European countries in the prevalence of back and neck/upper limb pain. This variation is unexplained by established individual risk factors. It may be attributable in part to socio-economic differences between countries, with higher prevalence where there is less poverty and more social support. PMID:24009006

Considerations about the licensing process of special nuclear industrial facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Talarico, M.A., E-mail: talaricomarco@hotmail.com [Marinha do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao do Porgrama de Submarino com Propulsao Nuclear; Melo, P.F. Frutuoso e [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear

2015-07-01

This paper brings a discussion about the challenges involved in the development of a new kind of nuclear facility in Brazil, a naval base for nuclear submarines, with attention to the licensing process and considerations about the risk-informed decision making application to the licensing process. Initially, a model of such a naval base, called in this work, special industrial facility, is proposed, with its systems and respective sets of basic requirements, in order to make it possible the accomplishment of the special industrial facility support function to the nuclear submarine. A discussion about current challenges to overcome in this project is presented: the challenges due to the new characteristics of this type of nuclear facility; existence of several interfaces between the special industrial facilities systems and nuclear submarine systems in design activities; lack of specific regulation in Brazil to allow the licensing process of special industrial facilities by the nuclear safety authority; and comments about the lack of information from reference nuclear facilities, as is the case with nuclear power reactors (for example, the German Grafenrheinfeld nuclear plant is the reference plant for the Brazilian Angra 2 nuclear plant). Finally, in view of these challenges, an analysis method of special industrial facility operational scenarios to assist the licensing process is proposed. Also, considerations about the application of risk-informed decision making to the special industrial facility activity and licensing process in Brazil are presented. (author)

Considerations about the licensing process of special nuclear industrial facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Talarico, M.A.; Melo, P.F. Frutuoso e

2015-01-01

This paper brings a discussion about the challenges involved in the development of a new kind of nuclear facility in Brazil, a naval base for nuclear submarines, with attention to the licensing process and considerations about the risk-informed decision making application to the licensing process. Initially, a model of such a naval base, called in this work, special industrial facility, is proposed, with its systems and respective sets of basic requirements, in order to make it possible the accomplishment of the special industrial facility support function to the nuclear submarine. A discussion about current challenges to overcome in this project is presented: the challenges due to the new characteristics of this type of nuclear facility; existence of several interfaces between the special industrial facilities systems and nuclear submarine systems in design activities; lack of specific regulation in Brazil to allow the licensing process of special industrial facilities by the nuclear safety authority; and comments about the lack of information from reference nuclear facilities, as is the case with nuclear power reactors (for example, the German Grafenrheinfeld nuclear plant is the reference plant for the Brazilian Angra 2 nuclear plant). Finally, in view of these challenges, an analysis method of special industrial facility operational scenarios to assist the licensing process is proposed. Also, considerations about the application of risk-informed decision making to the special industrial facility activity and licensing process in Brazil are presented. (author)

The Role of risk perception for risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, Ortwin

1999-01-01

The list of individual and social factors that shape risk perception demonstrates that the intuitive understanding of risk is a multidimensional concept and cannot be reduced to the product of probabilities and consequences. Although risk perceptions differ considerably among social and cultural groups, the multi-dimensionality of risk and the integration of beliefs related to risk, the cause of risk, and its circumstances into a consistent belief system appear to be common characteristics of public risk perception in almost all countries in which such studies have been performed. Furthermore, the experience of risk is not limited to the threat of facing harm in the future. It includes subjective predictions of possible outcomes, the social and cultural context in which the risk is experienced, the mental images the risk situation evokes, the perception of the players who are involved in the risk situation and the judgments about fairness and equity related to the distribution of potential hazardous events. In this sense, risk is a social construct rather than a physical entity. Risk communication and conflict resolution is therefore a crucial element of any risk management strategy. The goal of risk communication and conflict resolution should not be to persuade people to accept whatever the communicator thinks is best for them. The ideal communication program envisions a receiver who processes all the available information to form a well-balanced judgement in accordance with the factual evidence, the arguments of all sides, and his/her own interests and preferences. The ultimate goal of risk communication is to reconcile expertise, interests, and public preferences. (EHS)

Quantifying Risk Over the Life Course – Latency, Age-Related Susceptibility, and Other Time-Varying Exposure Metrics

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Molin; Liao, Xiaomei; Laden, Francine; Spiegelman, Donna

2016-01-01

Identification of the latency period and age-related susceptibility, if any, is an important aspect of assessing risks of environmental, nutritional and occupational exposures. We consider estimation and inference for latency and age-related susceptibility in relative risk and excess risk models. We focus on likelihood-based methods for point and interval estimation of the latency period and age-related windows of susceptibility coupled with several commonly considered exposure metrics. The method is illustrated in a study of the timing of the effects of constituents of air pollution on mortality in the Nurses’ Health Study. PMID:26750582

Time-varying mixed logit model for vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Weng, Jinxian; Du, Gang; Li, Dan; Yu, Yao

2018-08-01

This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Middle East respiratory syndrome in children. Dental considerations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fares S. Al-Sehaibany

2017-04-01

Full Text Available As of January 2016, 1,633 laboratory-confirmed cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV infection and 587 MERS-related deaths have been reported by the World Health Organization globally. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus may occur sporadically in communities or may be transmitted within families or hospitals. The number of confirmed MERS-CoV cases among healthcare workers has been increasing. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus may also spread through aerosols generated during various dental treatments, resulting in transmission between patients and dentists. As MERS-CoV cases have also been reported among children, pediatric dentists are at risk of MERS-CoV infection. This review discusses MERS-CoV infection in children and healthcare workers, especially pediatric dentists, and considerations pertaining to pediatric dentistry. Although no cases of MERS-CoV transmission between a patient and a dentist have yet been reported, the risk of MERS-CoV transmission from an infected patient may be high due to the unique work environment of dentists (aerosol generation.

Properties of Traffic Risk Coefficient

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Tie-Qiao; Huang, Hai-Jun; Shang, Hua-Yan; Xue, Yu

2009-10-01

We use the model with the consideration of the traffic interruption probability (Physica A 387(2008)6845) to study the relationship between the traffic risk coefficient and the traffic interruption probability. The analytical and numerical results show that the traffic interruption probability will reduce the traffic risk coefficient and that the reduction is related to the density, which shows that this model can improve traffic security.

Potential risks of "risk" language in breastfeeding advocacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, Lora J Ebert; Taylor, Erin N

2011-06-21

In this article the authors analyze the use of "risks of formula language" versus "benefits of breastfeeding language" in breastfeeding advocacy texts. Feeding intentionality and 434 adult respondents' assessments of advocacy texts were examined at a mid-western university in the fall of 2009. No significant difference was observed between those who read text phrased in terms of "risks of formula feeding" and those who read text describing "benefits of breastfeeding" in feeding intentionality. Results supported the expectation that respondents would less favorably assess texts using risk language-respondents rated risk texts as less trustworthy, accurate, and helpful compared to benefit text. Texts were also varied in "medical" and "breastfeeding advocacy group" affiliations. Analyses revealed that texts including the medical logo were rated significantly more favorably compared to breastfeeding advocacy logo and no logo conditions. Findings suggest that use of risk language may not be an advantageous health promotion strategy, but may be counter-productive to the goals of breastfeeding advocates.

Oral complementary medicine and alternative practitioner use varies across chronic conditions and attitudes to risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert J Adams

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Robert J Adams1, Sarah L Appleton1, Antonia Cole2, Tiffany K Gill3, Anne W Taylor3, Catherine L Hill11The Health Observatory, 2Rheumatology Unit, 3Population Research and Outcomes Unit, SA Health, The University of Adelaide Discipline of Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Woodville, AustraliaObjectives: To determine whether chronic conditions and patient factors, such as risk perception and decision-making preferences, are associated with complementary medicine and alternative practitioner use in a representative longitudinal population cohort.Participants and setting: Analysis of data from Stage 2 of the North West Adelaide Health Study of 3161 adults who attended a study clinic visit in 2004–2006. The main outcome measures were the medications brought by participants to the study clinic visit, chronic health conditions, attitudes to risk, levels of satisfaction with conventional medicine, and preferred decision-making style.Results: At least one oral complementary medicine was used by 27.9% of participants, and 7.3% were visiting alternative practitioners (naturopath, osteopath. Oral complementary medicine use was significantly associated with arthritis, osteoporosis, and mental health conditions, but not with other chronic conditions. Any pattern of complementary medicine use was generally significantly associated with female gender, age at least 45 years, patient-driven decision-making preferences (odds ratio [OR] 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08–1.77, and frequent general practitioner visits (>five per year; OR 3.62, 95% CI: 2.13–6.17. Alternative practitioner visitors were younger, with higher levels of education (diploma/trade [OR 1.88, 95% CI: 1.28–2.76], bachelor’s degree [OR 1.77, 95% CI: 1.11–2.82], income > $80,000 (OR 2.28, 95% CI: 1.26–4.11, female gender (OR 3.15, 95% CI: 2.19–4.52, joint pain not diagnosed as arthritis (OR 1.68, 95% CI: 1.17–2.41, moderate to severe depressive symptoms (OR 2.15, 95% CI

Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, S.W.; Lane, N.K.; Swenson, L.

1994-01-01

Risk assessment is one of the many tools used to evaluate and select remedial alternatives and evaluate the risk associated with selected remedial alternatives during and after implementation. The risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) is performed to ensure selected alternatives are protective of human health and the environment. Final remedy selection is promulgated in a record of decision (ROD) and risks of the selected alternatives are documented. Included in the ROD documentation are the risk-related analyses for long-term effectiveness, short-term effectiveness, and overall protection of human health and the environment including how a remedy will eliminate, reduce or control risks and whether exposure will be reduced to acceptable levels. A major goal of RERA in the process leading to a ROD is to provide decision-makers with specific risk information that may be needed to choose among alternatives. For the Hanford Site, there are many considerations that must be addressed from a risk perspective. These include the large size of the Hanford Site, the presence of both chemical and radionuclide contamination, one likelihood of many analogues sites, public and worker health and safety, and stakeholder concern with ecological impacts from site contamination and remedial actions. A RERA methodology has been promulgated to (1) identify the points in the process leading to a ROD where risk assessment input is either required or desirable and (2) provide guidance on how to evaluate risks associated with remedial alternatives under consideration. The methodology and evaluations parallel EPA guidance requiring consideration of short-term impacts and the overall protectiveness of remedial actions for evaluating potential human health and ecological risks during selection of remedial alternatives, implementation of remedial measures, and following completion of remedial action

Comparative risk assessment for electricity generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thoene, E.; Kallenbach, U.

1988-01-01

The following conclusions are drawn: There is no 'zero-risk option' in electricity generation. Risk comparison meets with considerable problems relating to available data and methods. Taking into account the existing uncertainties, technology ranking in terms of risks involved cannot be done, but the major risk elements of the various electricity generating systems can be clearly identified. The risks defined cannot be interpreted so as to lead to an abolishment of certain techniques due to risks involved, particularly if one sees the risks from electricity generation in relation to other health hazards. The use of coal for electricity generation clearly ranks top with regard to occupational risks and hazards to public health. (orig./HP) [de

Estimating time-varying exposure-outcome associations using case-control data: logistic and case-cohort analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Keogh, Ruth H; Mangtani, Punam; Rodrigues, Laura; Nguipdop Djomo, Patrick

2016-01-05

Traditional analyses of standard case-control studies using logistic regression do not allow estimation of time-varying associations between exposures and the outcome. We present two approaches which allow this. The motivation is a study of vaccine efficacy as a function of time since vaccination. Our first approach is to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations by fitting a series of logistic regressions within successive time periods, reusing controls across periods. Our second approach treats the case-control sample as a case-cohort study, with the controls forming the subcohort. In the case-cohort analysis, controls contribute information at all times they are at risk. Extensions allow left truncation, frequency matching and, using the case-cohort analysis, time-varying exposures. Simulations are used to investigate the methods. The simulation results show that both methods give correct estimates of time-varying effects of exposures using standard case-control data. Using the logistic approach there are efficiency gains by reusing controls over time and care should be taken over the definition of controls within time periods. However, using the case-cohort analysis there is no ambiguity over the definition of controls. The performance of the two analyses is very similar when controls are used most efficiently under the logistic approach. Using our methods, case-control studies can be used to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations where they may not previously have been considered. The case-cohort analysis has several advantages, including that it allows estimation of time-varying associations as a continuous function of time, while the logistic regression approach is restricted to assuming a step function form for the time-varying association.

Effects of providing personalized feedback of child's obesity risk on mothers' food choices using a virtual reality buffet.

Science.gov (United States)

McBride, C M; Persky, S; Wagner, L K; Faith, M S; Ward, D S

2013-10-01

Providing personalized genetic-risk feedback of a child's susceptibility to adult-onset health conditions is a topic of considerable debate. Family health history (FHH), specifically parental overweight/obesity status, is a useful assessment for evaluating a child's genetic and environmental risk of becoming obese. It is unclear whether such risk information may influence parents' efforts to reduce their child's risk of obesity. To evaluate whether telling mothers the magnitude of their child's risk of becoming obese based on personal FHH influenced food choices for their young child from a virtual reality-based buffet restaurant. Overweight/obese mothers of a child aged 4-5 years who met eligibility criteria (N=221) were randomly assigned to one of three experimental arms, which emphasized different health information: arm 1, food safety control (Control); arm 2, behavioral-risk information (BRI) alone or arm 3, behavioral-risk information plus personal FHH-based risk assessment (BRI+FHH). Mothers donned a head-mounted display to be immersed in a virtual restaurant buffet, where they selected virtual food and beverages as a lunch for their child. Mothers who were randomized to BRI+FHH filled the index child's plate with an average of 45 fewer calories than those in the Control arm (Prisk message (that is, only one overweight parent). The influence of communicating a child's inherited risk of obesity on mothers' feeding practices may vary by the risk level conveyed. High-risk messages may best be coupled with strategies to increase mother's perceptions that efforts can be undertaken to reduce risk and build requisite behavioral skills to reduce risk.

Spacetime-varying couplings and Lorentz violation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kostelecky, V. Alan; Lehnert, Ralf; Perry, Malcolm J.

2003-01-01

Spacetime-varying coupling constants can be associated with violations of local Lorentz invariance and CPT symmetry. An analytical supergravity cosmology with a time-varying fine-structure constant provides an explicit example. Estimates are made for some experimental constraints

Living with risk. The British Medical Association guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1987-01-01

Personal risk estimation is discussed under the following headings: history and background of risk study, the nature and measurement of risk, the main causes of death, major risk factors (smoking, alcohol and other drugs, diet), occupational risks, transport, risks in the home, recreational risks, medicine and surgery, natural disasters, chemical risks, the perception, acceptability and management of risk, and risks and energy production. The latter chapter includes consideration of comparative risks in electricity generation. The extraction of fuel for, construction and operation of nuclear power stations is discussed, including references to Sellafield, leukemia clustering, and the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl disasters.

A consideration of the wider impact of present trends in radiation protection systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, R.C.

1979-01-01

It is argued that the radiation protection system provided by ICRP-26, while an admirable scientific hypothesis, has serious shortcomings as an effective regulatory document. Particularly vulnerable to attack is the emphasis on our ability to estimate health risks associated with established exposure limits, and our ability to interpret these risks in terms of what society considers acceptable. The emphasis on intake limits rather than deposition limits for internally deposited radionuclides, and the complexity of the dosimetric approach in deriving these limits, are also critized. It is recommended that national or international bodies employing these recommendations should provide more extensive justification of the limits, based on considerations other than health risk estimates, and that derived limits should be included that will enhance the practical applicability of the system. (author)

Multidisciplinary care considerations for gender nonconforming adolescents with eating disorders: A case series.

Science.gov (United States)

Donaldson, Abigail A; Hall, Allison; Neukirch, Jodie; Kasper, Vania; Simones, Shannon; Gagnon, Sherry; Reich, Steven; Forcier, Michelle

2018-05-01

Gender nonconforming youth are at risk for body dissatisfaction and disordered eating. Currently, only a small body of literature addresses this high-risk group. The five cases in this series highlight important themes for this patient population from an interdisciplinary perspective. Identified themes include increased risk for self-harm/suicide, complex psychiatric, and medical implications of delay to treatment for either gender dysphoria or disordered eating, and the importance of collaborative management to maximize care and facilitate healthy development to adulthood. The purpose of this case series is to expand the interdisciplinary discussion regarding the breadth of presentation and management considerations for gender nonconforming adolescents with disordered eating. An interdisciplinary approach to care might enhance access to comprehensive, collaborative treatment for disordered eating, and gender dysphoria in this unique population. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Variáveis fundamentalistas e os retornos das ações

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Newton C. A. da Costa Jr.

2000-01-01

Full Text Available O objetivo deste artigo é verificar a influência de três variáveis fundamentalistas (valor de mercado, índice preço/lucro e índice valor patrimonial/preço, além do coeficiente beta, na explicação da rentabilidade média das ações negociadas à vista na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo, durante o período de março de 1987 a fevereiro de 1996. Utilizou-se o método SUR na estimação dos coeficientes das regressões múltiplas. No período analisado, pôde-se constatar que existiu uma influência significativa destas variáveis no apreçamento das ações. Contudo, beta continuou sendo a principal variável na explicação da relação risco-retorno.This paper examines the influence of three fundamental variables (market capitalization, price-earnings ratio, and book-to-market ratio, and the CAPM beta in the explanation of the average returns of the stocks traded in São Paulo Stock Exchange during the period of March 1987 to February 1996. Multiple regression coefficients were estimated using SUR methodology. The results showed that the fundamental variables can explain a significant part of the cross-sectional returns. However, beta continues to play a significant role in the explanation of the risk-return relationship.

Transfer of risk coefficients across populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, L.R.

1992-01-01

The variation of lifetime risk projections for a Canadian population caused by the uncertainty in the choice of method for transferring excess relative risk coefficients between populations is assessed. Site-specific projections, varied by factors up to 3.5 when excess risk coefficients of the BEIR V relative risk models were transferred to the Canadian population using an additive and multiplicative method. When the risk from all cancers are combined, differences between transfer methods were no longer significant. The Canadian projections were consistent with the ICRP-60 nominal fatal cancer risk estimates. (author)

APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andi Andi

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

Radiation risks in pregnancy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mossman, K.L.; Hill, L.T.

1982-01-01

A major contraindication of radiodiagnostic procedures is pregnancy. Approximately 1% of all pregnant women are given abdominal x-rays during the first trimester of pregnancy. Evaluation of radiation exposure should involve consideration of the types of examinations performed and when performed, as well as radiation dose and risk estimation. This information is then weighed against other possible risks of the pregnancy as well as personal factors. In the authors' experiences, radiation exposures usually result in doses to the embryo of less than 5 cGy (rad); the resulting radiation risks are usually small compared with other risks of pregnancy. Procedures to minimize diagnostic x-ray exposure of the fetus are also discussed

Nonlinear isochrones in murine left ventricular pressure-volume loops: how well does the time-varying elastance concept hold?

Science.gov (United States)

Claessens, T E; Georgakopoulos, D; Afanasyeva, M; Vermeersch, S J; Millar, H D; Stergiopulos, N; Westerhof, N; Verdonck, P R; Segers, P

2006-04-01

The linear time-varying elastance theory is frequently used to describe the change in ventricular stiffness during the cardiac cycle. The concept assumes that all isochrones (i.e., curves that connect pressure-volume data occurring at the same time) are linear and have a common volume intercept. Of specific interest is the steepest isochrone, the end-systolic pressure-volume relationship (ESPVR), of which the slope serves as an index for cardiac contractile function. Pressure-volume measurements, achieved with a combined pressure-conductance catheter in the left ventricle of 13 open-chest anesthetized mice, showed a marked curvilinearity of the isochrones. We therefore analyzed the shape of the isochrones by using six regression algorithms (two linear, two quadratic, and two logarithmic, each with a fixed or time-varying intercept) and discussed the consequences for the elastance concept. Our main observations were 1) the volume intercept varies considerably with time; 2) isochrones are equally well described by using quadratic or logarithmic regression; 3) linear regression with a fixed intercept shows poor correlation (R(2) volume intercept of the ESPVR. In conclusion, the linear time-varying elastance fails to provide a sufficiently robust model to account for changes in pressure and volume during the cardiac cycle in the mouse ventricle. A new framework accounting for the nonlinear shape of the isochrones needs to be developed.

Antioxidants and Dementia Risk: Consideration through a Cerebrovascular Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Virginie Lam

2016-12-01

Full Text Available A number of natural and chemical compounds that exert anti-oxidative properties are demonstrated to be beneficial for brain and cognitive function, and some are reported to reduce the risk of dementia. However, the detailed mechanisms by which those anti-oxidative compounds show positive effects on cognition and dementia are still unclear. An emerging body of evidence suggests that the integrity of the cerebrovascular blood-brain barrier (BBB is centrally involved in the onset and progression of cognitive impairment and dementia. While recent studies revealed that some anti-oxidative agents appear to be protective against the disruption of BBB integrity and structure, few studies considered the neuroprotective effects of antioxidants in the context of cerebrovascular integrity. Therefore, in this review, we examine the mechanistic insights of antioxidants as a pleiotropic agent for cognitive impairment and dementia through a cerebrovascular axis by primarily focusing on the current available data from physiological studies. Conclusively, there is a compelling body of evidence that suggest antioxidants may prevent cognitive decline and dementia by protecting the integrity and function of BBB and, indeed, further studies are needed to directly examine these effects in addition to underlying molecular mechanisms.

Ethical considerations in clinical research on herbal medicine for prevention of cardiovascular disease in the ageing.

Science.gov (United States)

Koonrungsesomboon, Nut; Karbwang, Juntra

2016-10-15

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the ageing is a major public health problem worldwide. The nature of most CVD is subclinical with pathological processes that can span over years. Use of preventive measures could be an appropriate approach to prevailing over CVD in the ageing, and herbal medicine is one of the promising preventive approaches and is currently of interest among medical societies. In the evidence-based era, herbal medicine is, however, often underestimated and approached with skepticism, mainly due to the paucity of scientific evidence. Properly designed clinical trials on herbal medicine for prevention of CVD in a geriatric population are thus of importance and of clinical value. To review ethical issues and discuss considerations when such research is proposed. Four ethical issues, including the scientific validity of research, risk-benefit assessments, subject selection and vulnerability, and informed consent, are structured and extensively discussed in this article. Ethical core considerations of prevention research of CVD on herbal medicine involve particular attention on the scientific validity of research, risk-benefit assessments, subject selection and vulnerability, and informed consent. These issues and considerations are keys, although they must be adapted to an individual research setting in which a clinical study is proposed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Harbour porpoise distribution can vary at small spatiotemporal scales in energetic habitats

Science.gov (United States)

Benjamins, Steven; van Geel, Nienke; Hastie, Gordon; Elliott, Jim; Wilson, Ben

2017-07-01

Marine habitat heterogeneity underpins species distribution and can be generated through interactions between physical and biological drivers at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) is used worldwide to study potential impacts of marine industrial activities on cetaceans, but understanding of animals' site use at small spatiotemporal scales (marine renewable energy development (MRED) sites was investigated by deploying dense arrays of C-POD passive acoustic detectors at a wave energy test site (the European Marine Energy Centre [Billia Croo, Orkney]) and by a minor tidal-stream site (Scarba [Inner Hebrides]). Respective arrays consisted of 7 and 11 moorings containing two C-PODs each and were deployed for up to 55 days. Minimum inter-mooring distances varied between 300-600 m. All C-POD data were analysed at a temporal resolution of whole minutes, with each minute classified as 1 or 0 on the basis of presence/absence of porpoise click trains (Porpoise-Positive Minutes/PPMs). Porpoise detection rates were analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) with Generalised Estimation Equations (GEEs). Although there were many porpoise detections (wave test site: N=3,432; tidal-stream site: N=17,366), daily detection rates varied significantly within both arrays. Within the wave site array (<1 km diameter), average daily detection rates varied from 4.3 to 14.8 PPMs/day. Within the tidal-stream array (<2 km diameter), average daily detection rates varied from 10.3 to 49.7 PPMs/day. GAM-GEE model results for individual moorings within both arrays indicated linkages between porpoise presence and small-scale heterogeneity among different environmental covariates (e.g., tidal phase, time of day). Porpoise detection rates varied considerably but with coherent patterns between moorings only several hundred metres apart and within hours. These patterns presumably have ecological relevance. These results indicate that, in energetically active and

Evolution of perturbation in charge-varying dusty plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popel, S.I.; Golub, A.P.; Losseva, T.V.; Bingham, R.; Benkadda, S.

2001-01-01

The nonstationary problem of the evolution of perturbation and its transformation into nonlinear wave structure in dusty plasmas is considered. For this purpose two one-dimensional models based on a set of fluid equations, Poisson's equation, and a charging equation for dust are developed. The first (simplified) model corresponds to the case [Popel et al., Phys. Plasmas 3, 4313 (1996)] when exact steady-state shock wave solutions can exist. This simplified model includes variable-charged dust grains, Boltzmann electrons, and inertial ions. The second (ionization source) model takes into account the variation of the ion density and the ion momentum dissipation due to dust particle charging as well as the source of plasma particles due to ionization process. The computational method for solving the set of equations which describe the evolution in time of a nonlinear structure in a charge-varying dusty plasma is developed. The case of the evolution of an intensive initial nonmoving region with a constant enhanced ion density is investigated on the basis of these two models. The consideration within the ionization source model is performed for the data of the laboratory experiment [Luo et al., Phys. Plasmas 6, 3455 (1999)]. It is shown that the ionization source model allows one to obtain shock structures as a result of evolution of an initial perturbation and to explain the experimental value of the width of the shock wave front. Comparison of the numerical data obtained on the basis of the ionization source model and the simplified model shows that the main characteristic features of the shock structure are the same for both models. Nevertheless, the ionization source model is much more sensitive to the form of the initial perturbation than the simplified model. The solution of the problem of the evolution of perturbation and its transformation into shock wave in charge-varying dusty plasmas opens up possibilities for description of the real phenomena like supernova

Nurturing At-Risk Youth in Math and Science: Curriculum and Teaching Considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Tobias, Randolf

The social environment of today has necessitated revision in educators' beliefs about what students are considered to be at risk of failing to complete their education with adequate levels of skills. This book addresses this issue in the areas of mathematics and science and is intended as a curriculum and teacher training accompaniment that can…

[Risk factors of schizophrenia].

Science.gov (United States)

Suvisaari, Jaana

2010-01-01

Schizophrenia is a multifactorial, neurodevelopmental disorder caused by a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors. Disturbances of brain development begin prenatally, while different environmental insults further affect postnatal brain maturation during childhood and adolescence. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have succeeded in identifying hundreds of new risk variants for common, multifactorial diseases. In schizophrenia research, GWAS have found several rare copy number variants that considerably increase the risk of schizophrenia, and have shown an association between schizophrenia and the major histocompatibility complex. Research on environmental risk factors in recent years has provided new information particularly on risk factors related to pregnancy and childhood rearing environment. Gene-environment interactions have become a central research topic. There is evidence that genetically susceptible children are more vulnerable to the effects of unstable childhood rearing environment and other environmental risk factors.

Empirical Evidence on Time-Varying Hedging Effectiveness of Emissions Allowances under Departures from the Cost-of-Carry Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kai Chang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Under departures from the cost-of-carry theory, traded spot prices and conditional volatility disturbed from futures market have significant impacts on futures price of emissions allowances, and then we propose time-varying hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness estimation using ECM-GARCH model. Our empirical results show that conditional variance, conditional covariance, and their correlation between between spot and futures prices exhibit time-varying trends. Conditional volatility of spot prices, conditional volatility disturbed from futures market, and conditional correlation of market noises implied from spot and futures markets have significant effects on time-varying hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness. In the immature emissions allowances market, market participants optimize portfolio sizes between spot and futures assets using historical market information and then achieve higher risk reduction of assets portfolio revenues; accordingly, we can obtain better hedging effectiveness through time-varying hedge ratios with departures from the cost-of-carry theory.

Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

Information needs for risk management/communication

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bennett, D.A. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

1990-12-31

The hazardous waste cleanup program under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (Superfund) is delegated to the ten Regions of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and has, to date, identified more than 33,000 sites for consideration. The size and complexity of the program places great demands on those who would provide information to achieve national consistency in application of risk assessment while meeting site-specific needs for risk management and risk communication.

Sustainable prevention of resource conflicts. Conflict risks for access and use of raw materials (report 1); Rohstoffkonflikte nachhaltig vermeiden. Konfliktrisiken bei Zugang und Nutzung von Rohstoffen (Teilbericht 1)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Taenzler, Dennis; Westerkamp, Meike [Adelphi Research, Berlin (Germany); Supersberger, Nikolaus; Ritthoff, Michael; Bleischwitz, Raimund [Wuppertal Institut fuer Klima, Umwelt, Energie GmbH, Wuppertal (Germany)

2011-04-15

Inequalities of resources ownership and the consequences of the exploitation of non-renewable resources have always caused violent conflicts of varying intensity. The resulting interdependence between conflicts on the one hand and resources on the other hand - discussed here under the term of conflict-resources nexus - is complex and requires a detailed theoretical and conceptional assessment. The risks of conflict vary as a function of the constellations of actors and the existing political, economic and social boundary conditions. These risks are often globally linked and reflect the flow of resources between consumer countries, transit countries, and producer countries. Conflicts in producer countries may endanger the supply of raw materials to consumer countries. Whether the raw material is an energetic resource like natural gas, petroleum, or coal, or a non-energetic resource like coltane or copper: There are many who demand that Germany should adapt to stronger competition and shorter supply and should also be aware of the possibility of conflicts about raw materials. This part-report of the project 'Sustainable Prevention of Resource Conflicts' presents important theoretical and conceptional considerations on the risk of conflict in the raw materials sector. On this basis, further reports will present case studies, scenarios, and preventive strategies. (orig./RHM)

Oral complementary medicine and alternative practitioner use varies across chronic conditions and attitudes to risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Robert J; Appleton, Sarah L; Cole, Antonia; Gill, Tiffany K; Taylor, Anne W; Hill, Catherine L

2010-11-08

To determine whether chronic conditions and patient factors, such as risk perception and decision-making preferences, are associated with complementary medicine and alternative practitioner use in a representative longitudinal population cohort. Analysis of data from Stage 2 of the North West Adelaide Health Study of 3161 adults who attended a study clinic visit in 2004-2006. The main outcome measures were the medications brought by participants to the study clinic visit, chronic health conditions, attitudes to risk, levels of satisfaction with conventional medicine, and preferred decision-making style. At least one oral complementary medicine was used by 27.9% of participants, and 7.3% were visiting alternative practitioners (naturopath, osteopath). Oral complementary medicine use was significantly associated with arthritis, osteoporosis, and mental health conditions, but not with other chronic conditions. Any pattern of complementary medicine use was generally significantly associated with female gender, age at least 45 years, patient-driven decision-making preferences (odds ratio [OR] 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.77), and frequent general practitioner visits (>five per year; OR 3.62, 95% CI: 2.13-6.17). Alternative practitioner visitors were younger, with higher levels of education (diploma/trade [OR 1.88, 95% CI: 1.28-2.76], bachelor's degree [OR 1.77, 95% CI: 1.11-2.82], income >$80,000 (OR 2.28, 95% CI: 1.26-4.11), female gender (OR 3.15, 95% CI: 2.19-4.52), joint pain not diagnosed as arthritis (OR 1.68, 95% CI: 1.17-2.41), moderate to severe depressive symptoms (OR 2.15, 95% CI: 1.04-4.46), and risk-taking behavior (3.26, 1.80-5.92), or low-to-moderate risk aversion (OR 2.08, 95% CI: 1.26-4.11). Although there is widespread use of complementary medicines in the Australian community, there are differing patterns of use between those using oral complementary medicines and those using alternative practitioners.

Five-Year Risk of Interval-Invasive Second Breast Cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Buist, Diana S. M.; Houssami, Nehmat; Dowling, Emily C.; Halpern, Elkan F.; Gazelle, G. Scott; Lehman, Constance D.; Henderson, Louise M.; Hubbard, Rebecca A.

2015-01-01

Background: Earlier detection of second breast cancers after primary breast cancer (PBC) treatment improves survival, yet mammography is less accurate in women with prior breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to examine women presenting clinically with second breast cancers after negative surveillance mammography (interval cancers), and to estimate the five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancers for women with varying risk profiles. Methods: We evaluated a prospective cohort of 15 114 women with 47 717 surveillance mammograms diagnosed with stage 0-II unilateral PBC from 1996 through 2008 at facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We used discrete time survival models to estimate the association between odds of an interval-invasive second breast cancer and candidate predictors, including demographic, PBC, and imaging characteristics. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The cumulative incidence of second breast cancers after five years was 54.4 per 1000 women, with 325 surveillance-detected and 138 interval-invasive second breast cancers. The five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancer for women with referent category characteristics was 0.60%. For women with the most and least favorable profiles, the five-year risk ranged from 0.07% to 6.11%. Multivariable modeling identified grade II PBC (odds ratio [OR] = 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 3.31), treatment with lumpectomy without radiation (OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.91 to 5.62), interval PBC presentation (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.16), and heterogeneously dense breasts on mammography (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.01 to 2.36) as independent predictors of interval-invasive second breast cancers. Conclusions: PBC diagnosis and treatment characteristics contribute to variation in subsequent-interval second breast cancer risk. Consideration of these factors may be useful in developing tailored post-treatment imaging surveillance plans. PMID:25904721

Risk considerations for a long-term open-state of the radioactive waste storage facility Schacht Asse II. Variation of the parameter sets for radio-ecological modeling using the Monte Carlo method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kueppers, Christian; Ustohalova, Veronika

2013-01-01

The risk considerations for a long-term open-state of the radioactive waste storage facility Schacht Asse II include the following issues: description of radio-ecological models for the radionuclide transport in the covering rock formations and determination of the radiation exposure, parameters of the radio-ecological and their variability, Monte-Carlo method application. The results of the modeling calculations include the group short-living radionuclides, long-living radionuclides, radionuclides in the frame of decay chains and sensitivity analyses with respect to the correlation of input data and results.

Considerations regarding dosimetry in children

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilday, D.L.

1986-01-01

The most important consideration when deciding whether or not to perform a nuclear medicine procedure in a child is whether the benefit of the information obtained exceeds the potential risk. In most circumstances the potential benefits are well define. No patient should be studied unless the question to be answered is clearly understood and there is a reasonable change to answer it. To properly perform procedures in children one must not only have a schedule to scale the radiopharmaceutical dose to be administered to the child's body surface area but also one must have an established minimum dose for small babies and infants. There is no point in under-dosing the patient as then the information will not be obtained from the nuclear medicine society. The value of nuclear medicine in the pediatric population cannot be underestimated. It is often the single most important test that can be performed diagnostically. For these reasons it is very important to understand the proper relationship of an adequate study versus the minimization of radiation. 3 references

Multimethod prediction of child abuse risk in an at-risk sample of male intimate partner violence offenders.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, Christina M; Gracia, Enrique; Lila, Marisol

2016-10-01

The vast majority of research on child abuse potential has concentrated on women demonstrating varying levels of risk of perpetrating physical child abuse. In contrast, the current study considered factors predictive of physical child abuse potential in a group of 70 male intimate partner violence offenders, a group that would represent a likely high risk group. Elements of Social Information Processing theory were evaluated, including pre-existing schemas of empathy, anger, and attitudes approving of parent-child aggression considered as potential moderators of negative attributions of child behavior. To lend methodological rigor, the study also utilized multiple measures and multiple methods, including analog tasks, to predict child abuse risk. Contrary to expectations, findings did not support the role of anger independently predicting child abuse risk in this sample of men. However, preexisting beliefs approving of parent-child aggression, lower empathy, and more negative child behavior attributions independently predicted abuse potential; in addition, greater anger, poorer empathy, and more favorable attitudes toward parent-child aggression also exacerbated men's negative child attributions to further elevate their child abuse risk. Future work is encouraged to consider how factors commonly considered in women parallel or diverge from those observed to elevate child abuse risk in men of varying levels of risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic fuzzy systems in value-at-risk estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.

2009-01-01

Value-at-risk (VaR) is a popular measure for quantifying the market risk that a financial institution faces into a single number. Owing to the complexity of financial markets, the risks associated with a portfolio varies over time. Consequently, advanced methods of VaR estimation use parametric

Design considerations for identifying breast cancer risk factors in a population-based study in Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Brinton, Louise A; Awuah, Baffour; Nat Clegg-Lamptey, Joe; Wiafe-Addai, Beatrice; Ansong, Daniel; Nyarko, Kofi M; Wiafe, Seth; Yarney, Joel; Biritwum, Richard; Brotzman, Michelle; Adjei, Andrew A; Adjei, Ernest; Aitpillah, Francis; Edusei, Lawrence; Dedey, Florence; Nyante, Sarah J; Oppong, Joseph; Osei-Bonsu, Ernest; Titiloye, Nicholas; Vanderpuye, Verna; Brew Abaidoo, Emma; Arhin, Bernard; Boakye, Isaac; Frempong, Margaret; Ohene Oti, Naomi; Okyne, Victoria; Figueroa, Jonine D

2017-06-15

Although breast cancer is becoming more prevalent in Africa, few epidemiologic studies have been undertaken and appropriate methodologic approaches remain uncertain. We therefore conducted a population-based case-control study in Accra and Kumasi, Ghana, enrolling 2,202 women with lesions suspicious for breast cancer and 2,161 population controls. Biopsy tissue for cases prior to neoadjuvant therapy (if given), blood, saliva and fecal samples were sought for study subjects. Response rates, risk factor prevalences and odds ratios for established breast cancer risk factors were calculated. A total of 54.5% of the recruited cases were diagnosed with malignancies, 36.0% with benign conditions and 9.5% with indeterminate diagnoses. Response rates to interviews were 99.2% in cases and 91.9% in controls, with the vast majority of interviewed subjects providing saliva (97.9% in cases vs. 98.8% in controls) and blood (91.8% vs. 82.5%) samples; lower proportions (58.1% vs. 46.1%) provided fecal samples. While risk factor prevalences were unique as compared to women in other countries (e.g., less education, higher parity), cancer risk factors resembled patterns identified elsewhere (elevated risks associated with higher levels of education, familial histories of breast cancer, low parity and larger body sizes). Subjects with benign conditions were younger and exhibited higher socioeconomic profiles (e.g., higher education and lower parity) than those with malignancies, suggesting selective referral influences. While further defining breast cancer risk factors in Africa, this study showed that successful population-based interdisciplinary studies of cancer in Africa are possible but require close attention to diagnostic referral biases and standardized and documented approaches for high-quality data collection, including biospecimens. © 2017 UICC.

Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk and Risk Reduction in Jewish BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers

Science.gov (United States)

Finkelman, Brian S.; Rubinstein, Wendy S.; Friedman, Sue; Friebel, Tara M.; Dubitsky, Shera; Schonberger, Niecee Singer; Shoretz, Rochelle; Singer, Christian F.; Blum, Joanne L.; Tung, Nadine; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Lynch, Henry T.; Snyder, Carrie; Garber, Judy E.; Schildkraut, Joellen; Daly, Mary B.; Isaacs, Claudine; Pichert, Gabrielle; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Couch, Fergus J.; van't Veer, Laura; Eeles, Rosalind; Bancroft, Elizabeth; Evans, D. Gareth; Ganz, Patricia A.; Tomlinson, Gail E.; Narod, Steven A.; Matloff, Ellen; Domchek, Susan; Rebbeck, Timothy R.

2012-01-01

Purpose Mutations in BRCA1/2 dramatically increase the risk of both breast and ovarian cancers. Three mutations in these genes (185delAG, 5382insC, and 6174delT) occur at high frequency in Ashkenazi Jews. We evaluated how these common Jewish mutations (CJMs) affect cancer risks and risk reduction. Methods Our cohort comprised 4,649 women with disease-associated BRCA1/2 mutations from 22 centers in the Prevention and Observation of Surgical End Points Consortium. Of these women, 969 were self-identified Jewish women. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate breast and ovarian cancer risks, as well as risk reduction from risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO), by CJM and self-identified Jewish status. Results Ninety-one percent of Jewish BRCA1/2-positive women carried a CJM. Jewish women were significantly more likely to undergo RRSO than non-Jewish women (54% v 41%, respectively; odds ratio, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.44 to 2.42). Relative risks of cancer varied by CJM, with the relative risk of breast cancer being significantly lower in 6174delT mutation carriers than in non-CJM BRCA2 carriers (hazard ratio, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.18 to 0.69). No significant difference was seen in cancer risk reduction after RRSO among subgroups. Conclusion Consistent with previous results, risks for breast and ovarian cancer varied by CJM in BRCA1/2 carriers. In particular, 6174delT carriers had a lower risk of breast cancer. This finding requires additional confirmation in larger prospective and population-based cohort studies before being integrated into clinical care. PMID:22430266

Advances in multi-unit nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Modarres, Mohammad; Zhou, Taotao; Massoud, Mahmoud

2017-01-01

The Fukushima Dai-ichi accident highlighted the importance of risks from multiple nuclear reactor unit accidents at a site. As a result, there has been considerable interest in Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment (MUPRA) in the past few years. For considerations in nuclear safety, the MUPRA estimates measures of risk and identifies contributors to risk representing the entire site rather than the individual units in the site. In doing so, possible unit-to-unit interactions and dependencies should be modeled and accounted for in the MUPRA. In order to effectively account for these risks, six main commonality classifications—initiating events, shared connections, identical components, proximity dependencies, human dependencies, and organizational dependencies—may be used. This paper examines advances in MUPRA, offers formal definitions of multi-unit site risk measures and proposes quantitative approaches and data to account for unit-to-unit dependencies. Finally, a parametric approach for the multi-unit dependencies has been discussed and a simple example illustrates application of the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • This paper will discuss the technical aspects of an integrated MUPRA, including consideration of dependencies and assessment of the multi-unit dependency data and models for quantifying such dependencies. • The paper also provides discussions on formal definitions and metrics for multi-unit site risks. • The parametric methods are used to address multi-unit dependency situations. • A conceptual two-unit logic example is used to demonstrate the application of proposed methodology.

Estimating time-varying exposure-outcome associations using case-control data: logistic and case-cohort analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruth H. Keogh

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Traditional analyses of standard case-control studies using logistic regression do not allow estimation of time-varying associations between exposures and the outcome. We present two approaches which allow this. The motivation is a study of vaccine efficacy as a function of time since vaccination. Methods Our first approach is to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations by fitting a series of logistic regressions within successive time periods, reusing controls across periods. Our second approach treats the case-control sample as a case-cohort study, with the controls forming the subcohort. In the case-cohort analysis, controls contribute information at all times they are at risk. Extensions allow left truncation, frequency matching and, using the case-cohort analysis, time-varying exposures. Simulations are used to investigate the methods. Results The simulation results show that both methods give correct estimates of time-varying effects of exposures using standard case-control data. Using the logistic approach there are efficiency gains by reusing controls over time and care should be taken over the definition of controls within time periods. However, using the case-cohort analysis there is no ambiguity over the definition of controls. The performance of the two analyses is very similar when controls are used most efficiently under the logistic approach. Conclusions Using our methods, case-control studies can be used to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations where they may not previously have been considered. The case-cohort analysis has several advantages, including that it allows estimation of time-varying associations as a continuous function of time, while the logistic regression approach is restricted to assuming a step function form for the time-varying association.

Optimization of agricultural field workability predictions for improved risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Risks introduced by weather variability are key considerations in agricultural production. The sensitivity of agriculture to weather variability is of special concern in the face of climate change. In particular, the availability of workable days is an important consideration in agricultural practic...

Assessment of health risks of policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

2014-01-01

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

Assessment of health risks of policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

2014-09-15

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

Established and potential risk factors for clostridum difficile infection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vaishnavi C

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Clostridium difficile is the aetiological agent for almost all cases of pseudo membranous colitis and 15-25% of antibiotic associated diarrhoea. In recent years, C. difficile associated disease (CDAD has been increasing in frequency and severity due to the emergence of virulent strains. Severe cases of toxic mega colon may be associated with mortality rates of 24-38%. The prevalence of CDAD is global and the incidence varies considerably from place to place. In the initial stages of its discovery, C. difficile infection was regarded mainly as an outcome of antibiotic intake and not as a life threatening disease. Intervention by man has produced conditions making C. difficile a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. The recent outbreak of CDAD in Quebec has sent the alarm bells ringing. Apart from a threefold increase in the incidence of CDAD, clinicians have also reported a higher number of cases involving toxic mega colon, colectomy or death. Among all the risk factors, inclusive of the host and the environmental factors, antibiotics are the most important ones. Surgical patients comprise 55-75% of all patients with CDAD due to the fact that perioperative prophylaxis requires the use of antibiotics. However, other drugs such as immunosuppressants and proton pump inhibitors are also important risk factors. Thus CDAD is a growing nosocomial and public health challenge. Additionally, the recognition of community acquired CDAD signals the presence of several risk factors. In this review, the established and potential risk factors of CDAD, along with the epidemiology, diagnostic modalities, management and preventive measures of the disease have been elaborated.

Risk in social-cultural perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwee, S.L.

1980-01-01

The author intends to instigate a social-cultural risk theory. He finds the conception of risk is too objectively viewed and feels it should be considered more in relation to the subjective nature of human opinion and action. Objective and quantitative risk calculations on the basis of a theoretical model are possible and accountable, but the eventual assessment and decision making, which are based on these calculations, implicates subjective evaluation. An integral risk theory which takes into account both objective and subjective factors is considered. This can form a basis for a better social consideration and political decision making, an important point in the area of radiation hygiene. (C.F.)

Excessive infant crying: Definitions determine risk groups

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reijneveld, S.A.; Brugman, E.; Hirasing, R.A.

2002-01-01

We assessed risk groups for excessive infant crying using 10 published definitions, in 3179 children aged 1-6 months (response: 96.5%). Risk groups regarding parental employment, living area, lifestyle, and obstetric history varied by definition. This may explain the existence of conflicting

Confluence and Contours: Reflexive Management of Environmental Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Soane, Emma; Schubert, Iljana; Pollard, Simon; Rocks, Sophie; Black, Edgar

2016-06-01

Government institutions have responsibilities to distribute risk management funds meaningfully and to be accountable for their choices. We took a macro-level sociological approach to understanding the role of government in managing environmental risks, and insights from micro-level psychology to examine individual-level risk-related perceptions and beliefs. Survey data from 2,068 U.K. citizens showed that lay people's funding preferences were associated positively with beliefs about responsibility and trust, yet associations with perception varied depending on risk type. Moreover, there were risk-specific differences in the funding preferences of the lay sample and 29 policymakers. A laboratory-based study of 109 participants examined funding allocation in more detail through iterative presentation of expert information. Quantitative and qualitative data revealed a meso-level framework comprising three types of decisionmakers who varied in their willingness to change funding allocation preferences following expert information: adaptors, responders, and resistors. This research highlights the relevance of integrated theoretical approaches to understanding the policy process, and the benefits of reflexive dialogue to managing environmental risks. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Clever strategists: Australian Magpies vary mobbing strategies, not intensity, relative to different species of predator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A Koboroff

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Anti-predator behaviour of magpies was investigated, using five species of model predators, at times of raising offspring. We predicted differences in mobbing strategies for each predator presented and also that raising juveniles would affect intensity of the mobbing event. Fourteen permanent resident family groups were tested using 5 different types of predator (avian and reptilian known to be of varying degrees of risk to magpies and common in their habitat. In all, 210 trials were conducted (across three different stages of juvenile development. We found that the stage of juvenile development did not alter mobbing behaviour significantly, but predator type did. Aerial strategies (such as swooping were elicited by taxidermic models of raptors, whereas a taxidermic model of a monitor lizard was approached on the ground and a model snake was rarely approached. Swooping patterns also changed according to which of the three raptors was presented. Our results show that, in contrast to findings in other species, magpies vary mobbing strategy depending on the predator rather than varying mobbing intensity.

Clever strategists: Australian Magpies vary mobbing strategies, not intensity, relative to different species of predator.