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Sample records for risk threat sensitivity

  1. Biomarkers of threat and reward sensitivity demonstrate unique associations with risk for psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Brady D; McGowan, Sarah Kate; Sarapas, Casey; Robison-Andrew, E Jenna; Altman, Sarah E; Campbell, Miranda L; Gorka, Stephanie M; Katz, Andrea C; Shankman, Stewart A

    2013-08-01

    Two emotional/motivational constructs that have been posited to underlie anxiety and depressive disorders are heightened sensitivity to threat and reduced sensitivity to reward, respectively. It is unclear, though, whether these constructs are only epiphenomena or also connote risk for these disorders (and relatedly, whether they connote risk for separate disorders). Using family history of psychopathology as an indicator of risk, the present study examined whether biomarkers of sensitivity to threat (startle potentiation) and reward (frontal EEG asymmetry) were associated with similar or different familial liabilities. In addition, the present study examined whether these biomarkers were associated with risk independent of proband DSM-IV diagnosis. One-hundred and seventy-three individuals diagnosed with panic disorder (PD), early onset major depressive disorder (MDD), both (comorbids), or controls completed two laboratory paradigms assessing sensitivity to predictable/unpredictable threat (measured via startle response) and reward (measured via frontal EEG asymmetry during a gambling task). Results indicated that across all participants: (a) startle potentiation to unpredictable threat was associated with family history of PD (but not MDD); and (b) frontal EEG asymmetry while anticipating reward was associated with family history of MDD (but not PD). Additionally, both measures continued to be associated with family history of psychopathology after controlling for proband DSM-IV diagnosis. Results suggest that the proposed biomarkers of sensitivity to unpredictable threat and reward exhibit discriminant validity and may add to the predictive validity of the DSM-IV defined constructs of PD and MDD, respectively. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  2. Separate and interactive contributions of weak inhibitory control and threat sensitivity to prediction of suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venables, Noah C; Sellbom, Martin; Sourander, Andre; Kendler, Kenneth S; Joiner, Thomas E; Drislane, Laura E; Sillanmäki, Lauri; Elonheimo, Henrik; Parkkola, Kai; Multimaki, Petteri; Patrick, Christopher J

    2015-04-30

    Biobehavioral dispositions can serve as valuable referents for biologically oriented research on core processes with relevance to many psychiatric conditions. The present study examined two such dispositional variables-weak response inhibition (or disinhibition; INH-) and threat sensitivity (or fearfulness; THT+)-as predictors of the serious transdiagnostic problem of suicide risk in two samples: male and female outpatients from a U.S. clinic (N=1078), and a population-based male military cohort from Finland (N=3855). INH- and THT+ were operationalized through scores on scale measures of disinhibition and fear/fearlessness, known to be related to DSM-defined clinical conditions and brain biomarkers. Suicide risk was assessed by clinician ratings (clinic sample) and questionnaires (both samples). Across samples and alternative suicide indices, INH- and THT+ each contributed uniquely to prediction of suicide risk-beyond internalizing and externalizing problems in the case of the clinic sample where diagnostic data were available. Further, in both samples, INH- and THT+ interactively predicted suicide risk, with individuals scoring concurrently high on both dispositions exhibiting markedly augmented risk. Findings demonstrate that dispositional constructs of INH- and THT+ are predictive of suicide risk, and hold potential as referents for biological research on suicidal behavior. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Threat-sensitive anti-intraguild predation behaviour: maternal strategies to reduce offspring predation risk in mites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walzer, Andreas; Schausberger, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Predation is a major selective force for the evolution of behavioural characteristics of prey. Predation among consumers competing for food is termed intraguild predation (IGP). From the perspective of individual prey, IGP differs from classical predation in the likelihood of occurrence because IG prey is usually more rarely encountered and less profitable because it is more difficult to handle than classical prey. It is not known whether IGP is a sufficiently strong force to evolve interspecific threat sensitivity in antipredation behaviours, as is known from classical predation, and if so whether such behaviours are innate or learned. We examined interspecific threat sensitivity in antipredation in a guild of predatory mite species differing in adaptation to the shared spider mite prey (i.e. Phytoseiulus persimilis, Neoseiulus californicus and Amblyseius andersoni). We first ranked the players in this guild according to the IGP risk posed to each other: A. andersoni was the strongest IG predator; P. persimilis was the weakest. Then, we assessed the influence of relative IGP risk and experience on maternal strategies to reduce offspring IGP risk: A. andersoni was insensitive to IGP risk. Threat sensitivity in oviposition site selection was induced by experience in P. persimilis but occurred independently of experience in N. californicus. Irrespective of experience, P. persimilis laid fewer eggs in choice situations with the high- rather than low-risk IG predator. Our study suggests that, similar to classical predation, IGP may select for sophisticated innate and learned interspecific threat-sensitive antipredation responses. We argue that such responses may promote the coexistence of IG predators and prey.

  4. Date Sensitive Computing Problems: Understanding the Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-08-29

    equipment on Earth.3 It can also interfere with electromagnetic signals from such devices as cell phones, radio, televison , and radar. By itself, the ...spacecraft. Debris from impacted satellites will add to the existing orbital debris problem, and could eventually cause damage to other satellites...Date Sensitive Computing Problems Understanding the Threat Aug. 17, 1998 Revised Aug. 29, 1998 Prepared by: The National Crisis Response

  5. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  6. Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Megan K.; Ahmed, Alaa A.

    2015-01-01

    Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching (ARM) and whole-body (WB) leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the WB task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the WB movements than in ARM at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects' inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks. PMID:26106311

  7. Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan K. O'Brien

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching and whole-body leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory. Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the whole-body task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the whole-body movements than in arm-reaching at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects’ inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks.

  8. Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Megan K; Ahmed, Alaa A

    2015-01-01

    Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching (ARM) and whole-body (WB) leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the WB task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the WB movements than in ARM at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects' inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks.

  9. The sound of danger: threat sensitivity to predator vocalizations, alarm calls, and novelty in gulls.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah A MacLean

    Full Text Available The threat sensitivity hypothesis predicts that organisms will evaluate the relative danger of and respond differentially to varying degrees of predation threat. Doing so allows potential prey to balance the costs and benefits of anti-predator behaviors. Threat sensitivity has undergone limited testing in the auditory modality, and the relative threat level of auditory cues from different sources is difficult to infer across populations when variables such as background risk and experience are not properly controlled. We experimentally exposed a single population of two sympatric gull species to auditory stimuli representing a range of potential threats in order to compare the relative threat of heterospecific alarm calls, conspecific alarms calls, predator vocalizations, and novel auditory cues. Gulls were able to discriminate among a diverse set of threat indicators and respond in a graded manner commensurate with the level of threat. Vocalizations of two potential predators, the human voice and bald eagle call, differed in their threat level compared to each other and to alarm calls. Conspecific alarm calls were more threatening than heterospecfic alarm calls to the larger great black-backed gull, but the smaller herring gull weighed both equally. A novel cue elicited a response intermediate between known threats and a known non-threat in herring gulls, but not great black-backed gulls. Our results show that the relative threat level of auditory cues from different sources is highly species-dependent, and that caution should be exercised when comparing graded and threshold threat sensitive responses.

  10. Integration of multiple cues allows threat-sensitive anti-intraguild predator responses in predatory mites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walzer, Andreas; Schausberger, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Intraguild (IG) prey is commonly confronted with multiple IG predator species. However, the IG predation (IGP) risk for prey is not only dependent on the predator species, but also on inherent (intraspecific) characteristics of a given IG predator such as its life-stage, sex or gravidity and the associated prey needs. Thus, IG prey should have evolved the ability to integrate multiple IG predator cues, which should allow both inter- and intraspecific threat-sensitive anti-predator responses. Using a guild of plant-inhabiting predatory mites sharing spider mites as prey, we evaluated the effects of single and combined cues (eggs and/or chemical traces left by a predator female on the substrate) of the low risk IG predator Neoseiulus californicus and the high risk IG predator Amblyseius andersoni on time, distance and path shape parameters of the larval IG prey Phytoseiulus persimilis. IG prey discriminated between traces of the low and high risk IG predator, with and without additional presence of their eggs, indicating interspecific threat-sensitivity. The behavioural changes were manifest in distance moved, activity and path shape of IG prey. The cue combination of traces and eggs of the IG predators conveyed other information than each cue alone, allowing intraspecific threat-sensitive responses by IG prey apparent in changed velocities and distances moved. We argue that graded responses to single and combined IG predator cues are adaptive due to minimization of acceptance errors in IG prey decision making. PMID:23750040

  11. Stress Sensitivity, Aberrant Salience, and Threat Anticipation in Early Psychosis: An Experience Sampling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Kempton, Matthew J; Valmaggia, Lucia; Craig, Tom K J; Garety, Philippa; Onyejiaka, Adanna; Gayer-Anderson, Charlotte; So, Suzanne H; Hubbard, Kathryn; Beards, Stephanie; Dazzan, Paola; Pariante, Carmine; Mondelli, Valeria; Fisher, Helen L; Mills, John G; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang; McGuire, Philip; van Os, Jim; Murray, Robin M; Wykes, Til; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Morgan, Craig

    2016-05-01

    While contemporary models of psychosis have proposed a number of putative psychological mechanisms, how these impact on individuals to increase intensity of psychotic experiences in real life, outside the research laboratory, remains unclear. We aimed to investigate whether elevated stress sensitivity, experiences of aberrant novelty and salience, and enhanced anticipation of threat contribute to the development of psychotic experiences in daily life. We used the experience sampling method (ESM) to assess stress, negative affect, aberrant salience, threat anticipation, and psychotic experiences in 51 individuals with first-episode psychosis (FEP), 46 individuals with an at-risk mental state (ARMS) for psychosis, and 53 controls with no personal or family history of psychosis. Linear mixed models were used to account for the multilevel structure of ESM data. In all 3 groups, elevated stress sensitivity, aberrant salience, and enhanced threat anticipation were associated with an increased intensity of psychotic experiences. However, elevated sensitivity to minor stressful events (χ(2)= 6.3,P= 0.044), activities (χ(2)= 6.7,P= 0.036), and areas (χ(2)= 9.4,P= 0.009) and enhanced threat anticipation (χ(2)= 9.3,P= 0.009) were associated with more intense psychotic experiences in FEP individuals than controls. Sensitivity to outsider status (χ(2)= 5.7,P= 0.058) and aberrantly salient experiences (χ(2)= 12.3,P= 0.002) were more strongly associated with psychotic experiences in ARMS individuals than controls. Our findings suggest that stress sensitivity, aberrant salience, and threat anticipation are important psychological processes in the development of psychotic experiences in daily life in the early stages of the disorder. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center.

  12. Stress Sensitivity, Aberrant Salience, and Threat Anticipation in Early Psychosis: An Experience Sampling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Kempton, Matthew J.; Valmaggia, Lucia; Craig, Tom K. J.; Garety, Philippa; Onyejiaka, Adanna; Gayer-Anderson, Charlotte; So, Suzanne H.; Hubbard, Kathryn; Beards, Stephanie; Dazzan, Paola; Pariante, Carmine; Mondelli, Valeria; Fisher, Helen L.; Mills, John G.; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang; McGuire, Philip; van Os, Jim; Murray, Robin M.; Wykes, Til; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Morgan, Craig

    2016-01-01

    While contemporary models of psychosis have proposed a number of putative psychological mechanisms, how these impact on individuals to increase intensity of psychotic experiences in real life, outside the research laboratory, remains unclear. We aimed to investigate whether elevated stress sensitivity, experiences of aberrant novelty and salience, and enhanced anticipation of threat contribute to the development of psychotic experiences in daily life. We used the experience sampling method (ESM) to assess stress, negative affect, aberrant salience, threat anticipation, and psychotic experiences in 51 individuals with first-episode psychosis (FEP), 46 individuals with an at-risk mental state (ARMS) for psychosis, and 53 controls with no personal or family history of psychosis. Linear mixed models were used to account for the multilevel structure of ESM data. In all 3 groups, elevated stress sensitivity, aberrant salience, and enhanced threat anticipation were associated with an increased intensity of psychotic experiences. However, elevated sensitivity to minor stressful events (χ2 = 6.3, P = 0.044), activities (χ2 = 6.7, P = 0.036), and areas (χ2 = 9.4, P = 0.009) and enhanced threat anticipation (χ2 = 9.3, P = 0.009) were associated with more intense psychotic experiences in FEP individuals than controls. Sensitivity to outsider status (χ2 = 5.7, P = 0.058) and aberrantly salient experiences (χ2 = 12.3, P = 0.002) were more strongly associated with psychotic experiences in ARMS individuals than controls. Our findings suggest that stress sensitivity, aberrant salience, and threat anticipation are important psychological processes in the development of psychotic experiences in daily life in the early stages of the disorder. PMID:26834027

  13. Sensitivity towards fear of electric shock in passive threat situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ring, Patrick; Kaernbach, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Human judgment and decision-making (JDM) requires an assessment of different choice options. While traditional theories of choice argue that cognitive processes are the main driver to reach a decision, growing evidence highlights the importance of emotion in decision-making. Following these findings, it appears relevant to understand how individuals asses the attractiveness or riskiness of a situation in terms of emotional processes. The following study aims at a better understanding of the psychophysiological mechanisms underlying threat sensitivity by measuring skin conductance responses (SCRs) in passive threat situations. While previous studies demonstrate the role of magnitude on emotional body reactions preceding an outcome, this study focuses on probability. In order to analyze emotional body reactions preceding negative events with varying probability of occurrence, we have our participants play a two-stage card game. The first stage of the card game reveals the probability of receiving an unpleasant electric shock. The second stage applies the electric shock with the previously announced probability. For the analysis, we focus on the time interval between the first and second stage. We observe a linear relation between SCRs in anticipation of receiving an electric shock and shock probability. This finding indicates that SCRs are able to code the likelihood of negative events. We outline how this coding function of SCRs during the anticipation of negative events might add to an understanding of human JDM.

  14. Sensitivity towards fear of electric shock in passive threat situations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Ring

    Full Text Available Human judgment and decision-making (JDM requires an assessment of different choice options. While traditional theories of choice argue that cognitive processes are the main driver to reach a decision, growing evidence highlights the importance of emotion in decision-making. Following these findings, it appears relevant to understand how individuals asses the attractiveness or riskiness of a situation in terms of emotional processes. The following study aims at a better understanding of the psychophysiological mechanisms underlying threat sensitivity by measuring skin conductance responses (SCRs in passive threat situations. While previous studies demonstrate the role of magnitude on emotional body reactions preceding an outcome, this study focuses on probability. In order to analyze emotional body reactions preceding negative events with varying probability of occurrence, we have our participants play a two-stage card game. The first stage of the card game reveals the probability of receiving an unpleasant electric shock. The second stage applies the electric shock with the previously announced probability. For the analysis, we focus on the time interval between the first and second stage. We observe a linear relation between SCRs in anticipation of receiving an electric shock and shock probability. This finding indicates that SCRs are able to code the likelihood of negative events. We outline how this coding function of SCRs during the anticipation of negative events might add to an understanding of human JDM.

  15. VULNERABILITIES, TERRORIST AND BIOTERRORIST THREATS AND RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorel ORDEANUL

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The contemporary society has been, is and will probably be dominated "urbi et orbi " (everywhere and for everybody by conflicts expressed through violence, social confrontations, permissiveness, authority collapse, collapse of moral norms. Paradoxically, although it is spoken and written much about terrorism and terrorists, there is still no complete and accepted definition of these terms, and the legal classification is approximate. The analysis of threats is an extremely important decisional asset when setting up plans of direct protection or objective security strategies or institutions suitable to become targets of violent actions, but today's intelligence community has not yet established a clear set of procedures and principles that constitute the expert main frame for a comprehensive analysis of threats and vulnerabilities.

  16. Supply Chain Risk Management: An Introduction to the Credible Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    van.poindexter@dau.mil. Figure 3. Trusted Suppliers Source: “ Managing Information Communications Technology Global Supply Chain Risk Awareness...Defense AT&L: July-August 2016 18 Supply Chain Risk Management An Introduction to the Credible Threat Heath Ferry n Van Poindexter 19...cybersecurity breach. This article examines the elements of supply chain risk management , the national security risks associated with exploitation, and

  17. The DANGERTOME Personal Risk Threat Assessment Scale: An Instrument to Help Aid Immediate Threat Assessment for Counselors, Faculty, and Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhnke, Gerald A.

    2010-01-01

    Threats of violence are not uncommon to counselors, faculty, or teachers. Each must be taken seriously, quickly analyzed, and safety procedures implemented. Yet, there exists a paucity of brief, face-to-face, assessments designed to aid threat assessment. To address this paucity, the author created The DANGERTOME Personal Risk Threat Assessment…

  18. External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Powell, Troy C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Two risk assessment algorithms and philosophies have been augmented and combined to form a new algorit hm, the External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA), that allows for effective and statistically sound analysis of external threat sources in relation to individual attack methods . In addition to the attack method use probability and the attack method employment consequence, t he concept of defining threat sources is added to the risk assessment process. Sample data is tabulated and depicted in radar plots and bar graphs for algorithm demonstration purposes. The largest success of ExTRAA is its ability to visualize the kind of r isk posed in a given situation using the radar plot method.

  19. Threat and error management for anesthesiologists: a predictive risk taxonomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruskin, Keith J.; Stiegler, Marjorie P.; Park, Kellie; Guffey, Patrick; Kurup, Viji; Chidester, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Purpose of review Patient care in the operating room is a dynamic interaction that requires cooperation among team members and reliance upon sophisticated technology. Most human factors research in medicine has been focused on analyzing errors and implementing system-wide changes to prevent them from recurring. We describe a set of techniques that has been used successfully by the aviation industry to analyze errors and adverse events and explain how these techniques can be applied to patient care. Recent findings Threat and error management (TEM) describes adverse events in terms of risks or challenges that are present in an operational environment (threats) and the actions of specific personnel that potentiate or exacerbate those threats (errors). TEM is a technique widely used in aviation, and can be adapted for the use in a medical setting to predict high-risk situations and prevent errors in the perioperative period. A threat taxonomy is a novel way of classifying and predicting the hazards that can occur in the operating room. TEM can be used to identify error-producing situations, analyze adverse events, and design training scenarios. Summary TEM offers a multifaceted strategy for identifying hazards, reducing errors, and training physicians. A threat taxonomy may improve analysis of critical events with subsequent development of specific interventions, and may also serve as a framework for training programs in risk mitigation. PMID:24113268

  20. Scaling range sizes to threats for robust predictions of risks to biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Murray, Nicholas J

    2018-04-01

    Assessments of risk to biodiversity often rely on spatial distributions of species and ecosystems. Range-size metrics used extensively in these assessments, such as area of occupancy (AOO), are sensitive to measurement scale, prompting proposals to measure them at finer scales or at different scales based on the shape of the distribution or ecological characteristics of the biota. Despite its dominant role in red-list assessments for decades, appropriate spatial scales of AOO for predicting risks of species' extinction or ecosystem collapse remain untested and contentious. There are no quantitative evaluations of the scale-sensitivity of AOO as a predictor of risks, the relationship between optimal AOO scale and threat scale, or the effect of grid uncertainty. We used stochastic simulation models to explore risks to ecosystems and species with clustered, dispersed, and linear distribution patterns subject to regimes of threat events with different frequency and spatial extent. Area of occupancy was an accurate predictor of risk (0.81<|r|<0.98) and performed optimally when measured with grid cells 0.1-1.0 times the largest plausible area threatened by an event. Contrary to previous assertions, estimates of AOO at these relatively coarse scales were better predictors of risk than finer-scale estimates of AOO (e.g., when measurement cells are <1% of the area of the largest threat). The optimal scale depended on the spatial scales of threats more than the shape or size of biotic distributions. Although we found appreciable potential for grid-measurement errors, current IUCN guidelines for estimating AOO neutralize geometric uncertainty and incorporate effective scaling procedures for assessing risks posed by landscape-scale threats to species and ecosystems. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. The concept of risk in the design basis threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, J.M.

    2001-01-01

    Full text: Mathematically defined, risk is a product of one or more probability factors and one or more consequences. Actuarial analysis of risk requires the creation of a numeric algorithm that reflects the interaction of different probability factors, where probability data usually draws on direct measurements of incidence. For physical protection purposes, the algorithms take the general form: Risk = Probability of successful attack x Consequence where the overall probability of a successful attack will be determined by the product of, amongst other things, the probability of there being sufficient intent, the probability of there being available hostile resources, the probability of deterrence, and the probability that a hostile act will be detected and prevented. Deliberate, malevolent acts against nuclear facilities are rare. In so far as it is possible to make an actuarial type of judgement, the probability of malevolent activity against a nuclear facility is almost zero. This creates a problem for a numerical assessment of risk for nuclear facilities where the value (consequence) term could be almost infinite. As can be seen from the general equation above, a numerical algorithm of risk of malevolent activity affecting nuclear facilities could only yield a zero or infinite result. In such circumstances, intelligence-based threat assessments are sometimes thought of as a substitute for historic data in the determination of probability. However, if the paucity of historic data reflects the actual threat - which by and large it should - no amount of intelligence is likely to yield a substantially different conclusion. This mathematical approach to analysing risk appears to lead us either to no risk and no protection or to an infinite risk demanding every conceivable protective measure. The Design Basis Threat (DBT) approach offers a way out of the dilemma. Firstly, it allows us to eliminate from further consideration all zero or near zero probabilities

  2. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  3. Asymmetric Threats and Risks of the XXI Century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doncev, A.

    2007-01-01

    The rapid technology development in the 21st century has a great influence over the dynamic arm competition, thus threats and risks increasing. They are sublimated in different forms of international terrorism and could produce crisis in the Region, and furthermore all round the world. The international community is faced with new challenges. Now, the territories are not the only targets of attacks. The result of the theoretical and empirical research leads towards to the non-existence of national crisis management capacity. The paper identifies the international scenario which is very complex and unpredictable in the diapason of the asymmetric threats, as well as a new priorities agenda of the international community in the 21st century. Therefore, a risk management model is suggested, too.(author)

  4. Non fisheries threats - Risk, status and trends of non-fisheries threats in the California Current to groundfish species

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — We are calculating the risk of focal groundfish species to non-fisheries related threats (e.g. shipping activity, inorganic pollution) and comparing the relative...

  5. Cyber Terrorism demands a Global Risks and Threats Strategic Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gareva, R.

    2007-01-01

    The world is in the third wave of development, which is digital managed and networked. Information, which creates the knowledge is transferring thorough the Internet by exponential function. The rapid advancement of the computer technology has a great influence over the development of the critical information infrastructure, thus changing the safety environment and the national values and interests. This advancement produces threats and risks from computer perspective which are sublimated in different forms of international terrorism and particularly in cyber terrorism. The main aim of this paper is based on a thorough analysis of what is scientifically known and practiced when nowadays critical information infrastructure is in the focus of the cyber terrorism. The rapid IT development demands changes in the strategic management focus. As a result of a time-consuming theoretical and empirical research this paper suggests a methodology for strategic managing of: threats, risks and vulnerabilities. The proposed methodology is seen as a mean to increase the human security conscious in every sense of the word, and to promote the need for rules, procedures and standards establishment from the aspect of the strategic management in the new information epoch concerning. In addition, through a scientific discourse, a short attempt is made to relate Macedonian reality with the phenomenon mentioned above. The most fundamental set phrase is that the efficiency and promptly made decisions during strategic planning are a projection of the systematic organization of functions and models for managing the risks and threats of the critical information infrastructure. Hence, this paper could be seen as a perspective when taking in consideration the regional strategic management, and the cyber space vital functioning. (author)

  6. Hunted woolly monkeys (Lagothrix poeppigii show threat-sensitive responses to human presence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Papworth

    Full Text Available Responding only to individuals of a predator species which display threatening behaviour allows prey species to minimise energy expenditure and other costs of predator avoidance, such as disruption of feeding. The threat sensitivity hypothesis predicts such behaviour in prey species. If hunted animals are unable to distinguish dangerous humans from non-dangerous humans, human hunting is likely to have a greater effect on prey populations as all human encounters should lead to predator avoidance, increasing stress and creating opportunity costs for exploited populations. We test the threat sensitivity hypothesis in wild Poeppigi's woolly monkeys (Lagothrix poeppigii in Yasuní National Park, Ecuador, by presenting human models engaging in one of three behaviours "hunting", "gathering" or "researching". These experiments were conducted at two sites with differing hunting pressures. Visibility, movement and vocalisations were recorded and results from two sites showed that groups changed their behaviours after being exposed to humans, and did so in different ways depending on the behaviour of the human model. Results at the site with higher hunting pressure were consistent with predictions based on the threat sensitivity hypothesis. Although results at the site with lower hunting pressure were not consistent with the results at the site with higher hunting pressure, groups at this site also showed differential responses to different human behaviours. These results provide evidence of threat-sensitive predator avoidance in hunted primates, which may allow them to conserve both time and energy when encountering humans which pose no threat.

  7. The opportunity-threat theory of decision-making under risk

    OpenAIRE

    Mohan Pandey

    2018-01-01

    A new theory of decision-making under risk, the Opportunity-Threat Theory is proposed. Analysis of risk into opportunity and threat components allows description of behavior as a combination of opportunity seeking and threat aversion. Expected utility is a special case of this model. The final evaluation is an integration of the impacts of opportunity and threat with this expectation. The model can account for basic results as well as several ``new paradoxes'' that refuted c...

  8. [Strategies for reducing risks in smoking: opportunity or threat].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Córdoba, Rodrigo; Nerín, Isabel

    2009-12-01

    The smoking control policies recommended by the World Health Organisation have achieved a slight decrease in smoking prevalence in the developed countries, although associated mortality is still very high. The use of tobacco products other than cigarettes and even medicinal nicotine (known as nicotine replacement therapy (NRT)) has been proposed as a risk reduction strategy. Among the tobacco products with less individual risk than cigarettes would be any type of tobacco without smoke (smokeless) with a low content in nitrosamines and modified cigarettes; both forms included under the PREP (Potentially Reduced Exposure Products) concept. The idea would be to promote these products among those who cannot quit smoking or wish to reduce their risk without giving up nicotine intake. The possible effects of risk reduction strategies, including PREP, on the decreased prevalence and morbidity and mortality are reviewed, and the possible implications that this measure could have in our country are analysed. Tobacco control measures in Spain are recent and still insufficient. Therefore, the current priority in Spain is the development of policies of control that have shown to more than effective. The marketing and advertising of new tobacco products, even with reduced potential risk, seems more a serious threat than an opportunity for the development of smoking control policies.

  9. Risk perception and environmental health concerns in conditions of social security threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolarova, D.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: this study explores the connection between the perception of different societal risk, health concerns and behavioral attitudes of people in condition of social security threat. Two small and two big industrial towns were chosen in order to observe the social and psychological price of the structural changes in the industry such as unemployment and its reflection on the households and the individuals' social attitudes. Key stakeholders were interviewed and questionnaire survey was carried out. The results showed high level of risk sensitivity and health concerns when people felt threatened by lack of social and economic security. The pollution was found to be important problem when it caused direct and obvious risk to human health and the environment. In the same time reverse environmental behavior like insensitiveness and neglectful attitude was observed in cases when the health consequences of the pollution were perceived to be unclear and with delayed effect. In situation of a great socio-economic threat noninvolvement helped the individuals to adapt. The research proved the influence of several risk characteristics on risk perception. It was found a connection between the risk perception and risk controllability, voluntariness of exposure and cost/benefits distribution. In the study areas respondents' judgments on these characteristics reflected directly their social status and material state. The study presented here is in progress - it i's supported by research grant from Open Society Foundation. (author)

  10. Communication as a bridge between the threat of terrorism and the perception of risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, G.

    2017-01-01

    We are shaken almost weekly by reports of the threat of terrorism. But just how real is this threat, and how is it experienced by the general public? It is not unlikely that there is a gap between the threat of terrorism and people's perception of the risk. A new research project by Doctor Gerdien

  11. Security, Privacy, Threats and Risks in Cloud Computing ― A Vital Review

    OpenAIRE

    Goyal, Sumit

    2016-01-01

    Cloud computing is a multi million dollar business. As more and more enterprises are adopting cloud services for their businesses, threat of security has become a big concern for these enterprises and cloud users. This review describes the latest threats and risks associated with cloud computing and suggests techniques for better privacy and security of data in cloud environment. Threats and risks associated with cloud service models (SaaS, PaaS and IaaS) along with cloud deployment models (p...

  12. Project risk as identity threat: explaining the development and consequences of risk discourse in an infrastructure project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Os, A.; van Berkel, F.J.F.W.; de Gilder, T.C.; van Dyck, C.; Groenewegen, P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores the role of social identity threat in risk discourse in an infrastructure project, and the consequences risk discourse has for cooperation between stakeholders. We show that risks posed a threat to the identity of the project team, resulting in a discourse focused on attributing

  13. Including threat actor capability and motivation in risk assessment for Smart GRIDs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rossebo, J.E.Y.; Fransen, F.; Luiijf, H.A.M.

    2016-01-01

    The SEGRID (Security for Smart Electricity GRIDs) collaboration project, funded by the EU under the FP7 program investigates risk assessment methodologies and their possible need for enhancement. In this paper we discuss the need to include threat actor analysis in threat, vulnerability and risk

  14. Increased Flooding Risk - Accelerating Threat and Stakeholder Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, L. P.; Ezer, T.; De Young, R.; McShane, M. K.; McFarlane, B.

    2012-12-01

    Coastal cities have been adapting to coastal flooding for centuries. Now, with increased population along the coast combined with increased flooding because of sea level rise (SLR) the vulnerability of coastal cities has increased significantly. In this paper we will discuss the physical threat of accelerating sea level rise and the response of stakeholders. Sallenger et al (2012) stated "... we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modeled fingerprint of dynamic SLR." In the Northeast Hotspot (NEH) dynamic processes such as Gulf Stream transport can cause local sea level differences (Ezer, 2001). Sweet et al (2009) attributed the anomalously high sea level along the mid-Atlantic in 2009 to dynamic SLR. A recent paper (Ezer and Corlett, 2012 submitted), focused on Chesapeake Bay, confirms Sallenger et al. These accelerations suggest that the higher estimates of SLR in IPCC reports may be better estimates. The combination of local sea level rise and acceleration, even with average coastal storm surge, results in increased vulnerability and economic losses. We will use three examples of stakeholder response to this threat: shipbuilding, cities and insurance. Nuclear aircraft carrier drydock in Newport News, VA - The only drydock where nuclear powered aircraft carriers are built flooded during Hurricane Isabel. A study showed that with a 1 meter sea level rise and no change in storm severity they would have 'Major Flooding' every 4 months rather than every 27 years. Cities infrastructure - In a recent report on sea level rise, the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (representing nearly 2m people) found that "sea level rise will be a major issue", "there is not yet official state or federal guidance for addressing sea level rise", "…the "…U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has developed guidance…" for their

  15. Movements Indicate Threat Response Phases in Children at Risk for Anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGinnis, Ellen W; McGinnis, Ryan S; Muzik, Maria; Hruschak, Jessica; Lopez-Duran, Nestor L; Perkins, Noel C; Fitzgerald, Kate; Rosenblum, Katherine L

    2017-09-01

    Temporal phases of threat response, including potential threat (anxiety), acute threat (startle, fear), and post-threat response modulation, have been identified as the underlying markers of anxiety disorders. Objective measures of response during these phases may help identify children at risk for anxiety; however, the complexity of current assessment techniques prevent their adoption in many research and clinical contexts. We propose an alternative technology, an inertial measurement unit (IMU), that enables noninvasive measurement of the movements associated with threat response, and test its ability to detect threat response phases in young children at a heightened risk for developing anxiety. We quantified the motion of 18 children (3-7 years old) during an anxiety-/fear-provoking behavioral task using an IMU. Specifically, measurements from a single IMU secured to the child's waist were used to extract root-mean-square acceleration and angular velocity in the horizontal and vertical directions, and tilt and yaw range of motion during each threat response phase. IMU measurements detected expected differences in child motion by threat phase. Additionally, potential threat motion was positively correlated to familial anxiety risk, startle range of motion was positively correlated with child internalizing symptoms, and response modulation motion was negatively correlated to familial anxiety risk. Results suggest differential theory-driven threat response phases and support previous literature connecting maternal child risk to anxiety with behavioral measures using more feasible objective methods. This is the first study demonstrating the utility of an IMU for characterizing the motion of young children to mark the phases of threat response modulation. The technique provides a novel and objective measure of threat response for mental health researchers.

  16. A Cyber Security Risk Assessment of Hospital Infrastructure including TLS/SSL and other Threats

    OpenAIRE

    Millar, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    Cyber threats traditionally target governments, financial institutions and businesses. However, of growing concern is the threat to healthcare organizations. This study conducts a cyber security risk assessment of a theoretical hospital environment, to include TLS/SSL, which is an encryption protocol for network communications, plus other physical, logical and human threats. Despite significant budgets in the UK for the NHS, the spend on cyber security appears worryingly low and many hospital...

  17. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  18. Community structure analysis of rejection sensitive personality profiles: A common neural response to social evaluative threat?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kortink, Elise D; Weeda, Wouter D; Crowley, Michael J; Gunther Moor, Bregtje; van der Molen, Melle J W

    2018-06-01

    Monitoring social threat is essential for maintaining healthy social relationships, and recent studies suggest a neural alarm system that governs our response to social rejection. Frontal-midline theta (4-8 Hz) oscillatory power might act as a neural correlate of this system by being sensitive to unexpected social rejection. Here, we examined whether frontal-midline theta is modulated by individual differences in personality constructs sensitive to social disconnection. In addition, we examined the sensitivity of feedback-related brain potentials (i.e., the feedback-related negativity and P3) to social feedback. Sixty-five undergraduate female participants (mean age = 19.69 years) participated in the Social Judgment Paradigm, a fictitious peer-evaluation task in which participants provided expectancies about being liked/disliked by peer strangers. Thereafter, they received feedback signaling social acceptance/rejection. A community structure analysis was employed to delineate personality profiles in our data. Results provided evidence of two subgroups: one group scored high on attachment-related anxiety and fear of negative evaluation, whereas the other group scored high on attachment-related avoidance and low on fear of negative evaluation. In both groups, unexpected rejection feedback yielded a significant increase in theta power. The feedback-related negativity was sensitive to unexpected feedback, regardless of valence, and was largest for unexpected rejection feedback. The feedback-related P3 was significantly enhanced in response to expected social acceptance feedback. Together, these findings confirm the sensitivity of frontal midline theta oscillations to the processing of social threat, and suggest that this alleged neural alarm system behaves similarly in individuals that differ in personality constructs relevant to social evaluation.

  19. Risk Sensitive Filtering with Poisson Process Observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malcolm, W. P.; James, M. R.; Elliott, R. J.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we consider risk sensitive filtering for Poisson process observations. Risk sensitive filtering is a type of robust filtering which offers performance benefits in the presence of uncertainties. We derive a risk sensitive filter for a stochastic system where the signal variable has dynamics described by a diffusion equation and determines the rate function for an observation process. The filtering equations are stochastic integral equations. Computer simulations are presented to demonstrate the performance gain for the risk sensitive filter compared with the risk neutral filter

  20. The effect of panic disorder versus anxiety sensitivity on event-related potentials during anticipation of threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Elizabeth S; Weinberg, Anna; Nelson, Brady D; Meissel, Emily E E; Shankman, Stewart A

    2018-03-01

    Attention-related abnormalities are key components of the abnormal defensive responding observed in panic disorder (PD). Although behavioral studies have found aberrant attentional biases towards threat in PD, psychophysiological studies have been mixed. Predictability of threat, an important feature of threat processing, may have contributed to these mixed findings. Additionally, anxiety sensitivity, a dimensional trait associated with PD, may yield stronger associations with cognitive processes than categorical diagnoses of PD. In this study, 171 participants with PD and/or depression and healthy controls completed a task that differentiated anticipation of predictable vs. unpredictable shocks, while startle eyeblink and event-related potentials (ERPs [N100, P300]) were recorded. In all participants, relative to the control condition, probe N100 was enhanced to both predictable and unpredictable threat, whereas P300 suppression was unique to predictable threat. Probe N100, but not P300, was associated with startle eyeblink during both threatening conditions, and was strongest for unpredictable threat. PD was not associated with ERPs, but anxiety sensitivity (physical concerns) was positively associated with probe N100 (indicating reduced responding) in the unpredictable condition independent of PD diagnosis. Vulnerability to panic-related psychopathology may be characterized by aberrant early processing of threat, which may be especially evident during anticipation of unpredictable threats. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Privacy Threats and Practical Solutions for Genetic Risk Tests

    OpenAIRE

    Barman, Ludovic; El Graini, Mohammed-Taha; Raisaro, Jean Louis; Ayday, Erman; Hubaux, Jean-Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Recently, several solutions have been proposed to address the complex challenge of protecting individuals’ genetic data during personalized medicine tests. In this short paper, we analyze different privacy threats and propose simple countermeasures for the generic architecture mainly used in the literature. In particular, we present and evaluate a new practical solution against a critical attack of a malicious medical center trying to actively infer raw genetic information of patients.

  2. Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

    2014-01-01

    The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

  3. Threat/reward-sensitivity and hypomanic-personality modulate cognitive-control and attentional neural processes to emotional stimuli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pornpattananangkul, Narun; Hu, Xiaoqing; Nusslock, Robin

    2015-11-01

    Temperamental-traits (e.g. threat/reward-sensitivity) are found to modulate cognitive-control and attentional-processes. Yet, it is unclear exactly how these traits interact with emotional-stimuli in the modulation of cognitive-control, as reflected by the N2 event-related potential (ERP), and attentional-processes, as reflected by the P2 and P3 ERPs. Here in an ERP emotional-Go/NoGo task, 36 participants were instructed to inhibit their response to Fearful- and Happy-faces. Individual-differences in threat-sensitivity, reward-sensitivity and hypomanic-personality were assessed through self-report. Hypomanic-personality was assessed, given its relationship with reward-sensitivity and relevance to mood-disorder symptoms. Concerning cognitive-control, individuals with elevated threat-sensitivity displayed more-negative N2s to Happy-NoGo (relative to Fearful-NoGo) faces, whereas both individuals with elevated reward-sensitivity and hypomanic-personality displayed more-negative N2s to Fearful-NoGo (relative to Happy-NoGo) faces. Accordingly, when cognitive-control is required (during Go/NoGo), a mismatch between one's temperament and the valence of the NoGo-stimulus elevates detection of the need for cognitive-control. Conversely, the modulation of attentional-processing was specific to threat-sensitivity, as there was no relationship between either reward-sensitivity or hypomanic-personality and attentional-processing. Elevated threat-sensitivity was associated with enhanced early (P2s) and later (P3s) attentional-processing to Fearful-NoGo (relative to Happy-NoGo) faces. These latter findings support the negative attentional-bias model relating elevated threat-sensitivity with attentional-biases toward negative-stimuli and away from positive-stimuli. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

  5. A Risk Management Approach to the "Insider Threat"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Matt; Engle, Sophie; Frincke, Deborah A.; Gates, Carrie; Greitzer, Frank L.; Peisert, Sean; Whalen, Sean

    Recent surveys indicate that the financial impact and operating losses due to insider intrusions are increasing. But these studies often disagree on what constitutes an "insider;" indeed, manydefine it only implicitly. In theory, appropriate selection of, and enforcement of, properly specified security policies should prevent legitimate users from abusing their access to computer systems, information, and other resources. However, even if policies could be expressed precisely, the natural mapping between the natural language expression of a security policy, and the expression of that policyin a form that can be implemented on a computer system or network, createsgaps in enforcement. This paper defines "insider" precisely, in termsof thesegaps, andexploresan access-based modelfor analyzing threats that include those usually termed "insider threats." This model enables an organization to order its resources based on thebusinessvalue for that resource andof the information it contains. By identifying those users with access to high-value resources, we obtain an ordered list of users who can cause the greatest amount of damage. Concurrently with this, we examine psychological indicators in order to determine which usersareatthe greatestriskofacting inappropriately. We concludebyexamining how to merge this model with one of forensic logging and auditing.

  6. The risk of active sensitization to PPD.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Devos, S.A.; Valk, P.G.M. van der

    2001-01-01

    Para-phenylenediamine (PPD) and para-aminoazobenzene are strong sensitizers. By the patch test procedure, the patient may be sensitized to these agents. Combined testing of para-compounds may increase the risk of active sensitization. We studied the % of positive patch test reactions and their

  7. Many Species, Many Threats: A Composite Risk Assessment of Climate Impacts for Salmonids in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, M. C.; Greene, C.; Beechie, T. J.; Raymond, C.

    2016-02-01

    The life cycles of salmonid species span freshwater, estuarine, and marine environments, exposing these economically, ecologically, and culturally important species to a wide variety of climate change threats. The diverse life histories of salmonids make them differentially vulnerable to climate change based on their use of different habitat types and the variability in climate change threats across these habitat types. Previous studies have focused mainly on assessing the vulnerability of particular life stages for a few species. Hence, we lack a broad perspective on how multiple climate threats are expected to impact the entire salmonid community, which spend much of their lives in marine waters. This lack of knowledge hampers our ability to prioritize various adaptation strategies for salmonid conservation. In order to conduct a more extensive vulnerability study of salmonids, we performed a life cycle-based risk assessment of climate change threats for nine species of salmonids (species within Oncorhynchus, Salvelinus, and Prosopium genera) inhabiting the Skagit River watershed, which is subject to an array of climate impacts. Our risk assessment integrated projections of impacts from various climate threats in freshwater, estuarine, and marine ecosystems with expert-based assessments of species-specific sensitivity and exposure. We found that projections (multiple global climate models under moderate emission scenarios) of both changes in magnitude and frequency of three flow-related freshwater impacts (flooding, low flows, and suspended sediment pulses) were more severe than threats in estuarine and marine habitats for which we could obtain projections. Combining projections with expert-based sensitivity and exposure scores revealed that these three threats exhibited the highest risk across all species. Of the nine species, the four most vulnerable were Chinook and coho salmon, steelhead, and bull trout. Even though these salmonids spend much of their lives

  8. Reducing the risk of cyber threats in utilities through log management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patnaik, A. [ArcSight, Cupertino, CA (United States)

    2010-01-15

    Electrical blackouts caused by terrorists hacking into targeted control systems have already occurred in Brazil. A patchwork of security tools is needed to reduce potential threats. The continuous collection and analysis of data is also needed to detect cyber threats. The real time correlation of logs across all systems, applications and users is needed to ensure the reliability and security of the power grid. Solutions must also integrate well with identity management sources in order to prevent remote access account hijacking. Effective log management can be used to detect threats and reduce the risk of power outages. 1 fig.

  9. Current posttraumatic stress disorder and exaggerated threat sensitivity associated with elevated inflammation in the Mind Your Heart Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donovan, Aoife; Ahmadian, Ashkan J; Neylan, Thomas C; Pacult, Mark A; Edmondson, Donald; Cohen, Beth E

    2017-02-01

    Elevated inflammation has been repeatedly observed in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and it may drive the development of both psychiatric symptoms and physical comorbidities. However, it is not clear if elevated inflammation is a feature of both remitted and current PTSD, and little is known about relationships between specific clusters of PTSD symptoms and inflammation. Exaggerated threat sensitivity, as indexed by threat reactivity and avoidance of perceived threats, may be particularly closely associated with inflammation. We assessed PTSD symptoms and threat sensitivity using the Clinician Administered PTSD Scale in 735 Veterans Affairs patients (35% current PTSD; 16% remitted PTSD) who participated in the Mind Your Heart Study (mean age=59±11; 94% male). High sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), white blood cell count (WBC), and fibrinogen were used as indices of inflammation. Analysis of covariance models with planned contrasts were used to examine differences in inflammation by PTSD status, adjusting for age, sex, race, kidney function and socioeconomic status. Individuals with current PTSD had significantly higher hsCRP and WBC than patients with no history of PTSD, but there were no significant differences in inflammatory markers between those with remitted versus no history of PTSD. Within patients with current PTSD, higher threat reactivity was independently associated with higher hsCRP (β=0.16, p=0.01) and WBC count (β=0.24, <0.001), and higher effortful avoidance was associated with higher fibrinogen (β=0.13, p=0.04). Our data indicate that elevated inflammation may be a feature of current, but not remitted, PTSD. Within patients with PTSD, higher threat reactivity was also associated with elevated inflammation. A better understanding of the relationship between threat sensitivity and inflammation may inform interventions for patients with PTSD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. From repulsion to attraction: species- and spatial context-dependent threat sensitive response of the spider mite Tetranychus urticae to predatory mite cues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández Ferrari, M. Celeste; Schausberger, Peter

    2013-06-01

    Prey perceiving predation risk commonly change their behavior to avoid predation. However, antipredator strategies are costly. Therefore, according to the threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis, prey should match the intensity of their antipredator behaviors to the degree of threat, which may depend on the predator species and the spatial context. We assessed threat sensitivity of the two-spotted spider mite, Tetranychus urticae, to the cues of three predatory mites, Phytoseiulus persimilis, Neoseiulus californicus, and Amblyseius andersoni, posing different degrees of risk in two spatial contexts. We first conducted a no-choice test measuring oviposition and activity of T. urticae exposed to chemical traces of predators or traces plus predator eggs. Then, we tested the site preference of T. urticae in choice tests, using artificial cages and leaves. In the no-choice test, T. urticae deposited their first egg later in the presence of cues of P. persimilis than of the other two predators and cue absence, indicating interspecific threat-sensitivity. T. urticae laid also fewer eggs in the presence of cues of P. persimilis and A. andersoni than of N. californicus and cue absence. In the artificial cage test, the spider mites preferred the site with predator traces, whereas in the leaf test, they preferentially resided on leaves without traces. We argue that in a nonplant environment, chemical predator traces do not indicate a risk for T. urticae, and instead, these traces function as indirect habitat cues. The spider mites were attracted to these cues because they associated them with the existence of a nearby host plant.

  11. Psychoneurometric operationalization of threat sensitivity: Relations with clinical symptom and physiological response criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yancey, James R; Venables, Noah C; Patrick, Christopher J

    2016-03-01

    The National Institute of Mental Health's Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) initiative calls for the incorporation of neurobiological approaches and findings into conceptions of mental health problems through a focus on biobehavioral constructs investigated across multiple domains of measurement (units of analysis). Although the constructs in the RDoC system are characterized in "process terms" (i.e., as functional concepts with brain and behavioral referents), these constructs can also be framed as dispositions (i.e., as dimensions of variation in biobehavioral functioning across individuals). Focusing on one key RDoC construct, acute threat or "fear," the current article illustrates a construct-oriented psychoneurometric strategy for operationalizing this construct in individual difference terms-as threat sensitivity (THT+). Utilizing data from 454 adult participants, we demonstrate empirically that (a) a scale measure of THT+ designed to tap general fear/fearlessness predicts effectively to relevant clinical problems (i.e., fear disorder symptoms), (b) this scale measure shows reliable associations with physiological indices of acute reactivity to aversive visual stimuli, and (c) a cross-domain factor reflecting the intersection of scale and physiological indicators of THT+ predicts effectively to both clinical and neurophysiological criterion measures. Results illustrate how the psychoneurometric approach can be used to create a dimensional index of a biobehavioral trait construct, in this case THT+, which can serve as a bridge between phenomena in domains of psychopathology and neurobiology. Implications and future directions are discussed with reference to the RDoC initiative and existing report-based conceptions of psychological traits. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  12. When does risk perception predict protection motivation for health threats? A person-by-situation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrer, Rebecca A; Klein, William M P; Avishai, Aya; Jones, Katelyn; Villegas, Megan; Sheeran, Paschal

    2018-01-01

    Although risk perception is a key concept in many health behavior theories, little research has explicitly tested when risk perception predicts motivation to take protective action against a health threat (protection motivation). The present study tackled this question by (a) adopting a multidimensional model of risk perception that comprises deliberative, affective, and experiential components (the TRIRISK model), and (b) taking a person-by-situation approach. We leveraged a highly intensive within-subjects paradigm to test features of the health threat (i.e., perceived severity) and individual differences (e.g., emotion reappraisal) as moderators of the relationship between the three types of risk perception and protection motivation in a within-subjects design. Multi-level modeling of 2968 observations (32 health threats across 94 participants) showed interactions among the TRIRISK components and moderation both by person-level and situational factors. For instance, affective risk perception better predicted protection motivation when deliberative risk perception was high, when the threat was less severe, and among participants who engage less in emotional reappraisal. These findings support the TRIRISK model and offer new insights into when risk perceptions predict protection motivation.

  13. When does risk perception predict protection motivation for health threats? A person-by-situation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, William M. P.; Avishai, Aya; Jones, Katelyn; Villegas, Megan; Sheeran, Paschal

    2018-01-01

    Although risk perception is a key concept in many health behavior theories, little research has explicitly tested when risk perception predicts motivation to take protective action against a health threat (protection motivation). The present study tackled this question by (a) adopting a multidimensional model of risk perception that comprises deliberative, affective, and experiential components (the TRIRISK model), and (b) taking a person-by-situation approach. We leveraged a highly intensive within-subjects paradigm to test features of the health threat (i.e., perceived severity) and individual differences (e.g., emotion reappraisal) as moderators of the relationship between the three types of risk perception and protection motivation in a within-subjects design. Multi-level modeling of 2968 observations (32 health threats across 94 participants) showed interactions among the TRIRISK components and moderation both by person-level and situational factors. For instance, affective risk perception better predicted protection motivation when deliberative risk perception was high, when the threat was less severe, and among participants who engage less in emotional reappraisal. These findings support the TRIRISK model and offer new insights into when risk perceptions predict protection motivation. PMID:29494705

  14. Anxiety and Attentional Bias to Threat in Children at Increased Familial Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milosavljevic, Bosiljka; Shephard, Elizabeth; Happé, Francesca G.; Johnson, Mark H.; Charman, Tony

    2017-01-01

    Anxiety and threat bias were examined in 6-8-year-old children at familial-risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and low-risk (LR, n = 37) controls. The high-risk (HR) group was divided into those who met diagnostic criteria for ASD (HR-ASD, n = 15) and those who did not (HR-non ASD, n = 24). The HR-ASD group had highest levels of…

  15. Remarks on Risk-Sensitive Control Problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menaldi, Jose-Luis; Robin, Maurice

    2005-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the discounted risk-sensitive control problem for periodic diffusion processes when the discount factor α goes to zero. If u α (θ,x) denotes the optimal cost function, θ being the risk factor, then it is shown that lim { α to 0}α u α (θ,x)=ξ(θ) where ξ(θ) is the average on ]0,θ[ of the optimal cost of the (usual) infinite horizon risk-sensitive control problem

  16. Taking chances in the face of threat: romantic risk regulation and approach motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavallo, Justin V; Fitzsimons, Gráinne M; Holmes, John G

    2009-06-01

    Four studies examine the hypothesis that goals adopted by high and low self-esteem people (HSEs and LSEs) to manage risk in romantic relationships may reflect global shifts in approach motivation and subsequently affect risk taking in nonsocial domains. In Studies 1 and 2, threats to participants' romantic relationships heightened HSEs' self-reported general approach motivation while lowering LSEs' approach motivation. In Studies 2 through 4, HSEs exhibited riskier decision making (i.e., a greater tendency to pursue rewards and ignore risks) in nonsocial domains following a relationship threat manipulation whereas LSEs made more conservative decisions. These results suggest that the romantic risk regulation may be inherently linked to a broader approach and avoidance system and that specific risk regulation behaviors may be driven by global motivational shifts to a greater degree than previously theorized.

  17. When is a threat only an acceptable risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, D.

    1983-01-01

    The government has accepted the report 'Lead in the Environment' by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution which recommends the introduction of lead-free petrol. This acceptance is discussed in the context of how changes in policy on pollution legislation come about. It seems that broad changes in social attitudes are needed. Most changes start as environmental scares some of which capture public imagination, others do not. Scientists are a major influence on scares - some are ignored, others, where the risks may be less, are overplayed. Scares tend to follow a predictable pattern. The economic and social histories of some changes are presented - clean air, blue asbestos, the use of aerosols, fluoride in water, nuclear power, acid rain and VDU radiation. It is suggested that some scares are more a cry for help. Whether people are for or against technological development depends not on the risk they accept but on the different meanings of hazards they understand. To opponents of nuclear power, radiation is a metaphor for the whole insensitive, selfish, destructive industrial system. (U.K.)

  18. Risk-sensitivity in Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordi Grau-Moya

    Full Text Available Information processing in the nervous system during sensorimotor tasks with inherent uncertainty has been shown to be consistent with Bayesian integration. Bayes optimal decision-makers are, however, risk-neutral in the sense that they weigh all possibilities based on prior expectation and sensory evidence when they choose the action with highest expected value. In contrast, risk-sensitive decision-makers are sensitive to model uncertainty and bias their decision-making processes when they do inference over unobserved variables. In particular, they allow deviations from their probabilistic model in cases where this model makes imprecise predictions. Here we test for risk-sensitivity in a sensorimotor integration task where subjects exhibit Bayesian information integration when they infer the position of a target from noisy sensory feedback. When introducing a cost associated with subjects' response, we found that subjects exhibited a characteristic bias towards low cost responses when their uncertainty was high. This result is in accordance with risk-sensitive decision-making processes that allow for deviations from Bayes optimal decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Our results suggest that both Bayesian integration and risk-sensitivity are important factors to understand sensorimotor integration in a quantitative fashion.

  19. Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security: threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brauch, H.G.; Oswald Spring, Ú.; Mesjasz, C.; Grin, J.; Kameri-Mbote, P.; Chourou, B.; Dunay, P.; Birkmann, J.

    2011-01-01

    This policy-focused Global Environmental and Human Security Handbook for the Anthropo-cene (GEHSHA) addresses new security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks posed by global environmental change and disasters. In 6 forewords, 5 preface essays 95 peer reviewed chapcountries analyse in 10

  20. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  1. Increased risk of sadness and suicidality among victims of bullying experiencing additional threats to physical safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Tammy B; Adesman, Andrew

    2017-11-23

    Objective To examine, in a nationally-representative sample of high school students, to what extent one or more additional threats to physical safety exacerbates the risk of sadness and suicidality among victims of school and/or cyber-bullying. Methods National data from the 2015 Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) were analyzed for grades 9-12 (n = 15,624). Victimization groups were characterized by school-bullying and cyber-bullying, with and without additional threats to physical safety: fighting at school, being threatened/injured at school, and skipping school out of fear for one's safety. Outcomes included 2-week sadness and suicidality. Outcomes for victimization groups were compared to non-victims using logistic regression adjusting for sex, grade and race/ethnicity. Results Overall, 20.2% of students were school-bullied, and 15.5% were cyber-bullied in the past year. Compared to non-victims, victims of school-bullying and victims of cyber-bullying (VoCBs) who did not experience additional threats to physical safety were 2.76 and 3.83 times more likely to report 2-week sadness, and 3.39 and 3.27 times more likely to exhibit suicidality, respectively. Conversely, victims of bullying who experienced one or more additional threats to physical safety were successively more likely to report these adverse outcomes. Notably, victims of school-bullying and VoCBs with all three additional risk factors were 13.13 and 17.75 times more likely to exhibit suicidality, respectively. Conclusion Risk of depression symptoms and suicidality among victims of school-bullying and/or cyber-bullying is greatly increased among those who have experienced additional threats to physical safety: fighting at school, being threatened/injured at school and skipping school out of fear for their safety.

  2. Risk and Threat via Online Social Network among Academia at Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaker Hussain, Hanizan; Din, Roshidi; Zulkarnaen Khidzir, Nik; Azhar Mat Daud, Khairul; Ahmad, Suzastri

    2018-05-01

    The evolution of information and communication technologies (ICT) nowadays has changed the life style of human living. The current modern societies have adopted ICT as an important thing that they are really needed in their life, especially as a tool to be used for communications activity. However, unfortunately ICT also exposed its user in circumstances of risk, threats and vulnerability. This paper will discuss the risk and threats to the users who are using social media as a medium to communicate. In this paper, the fraction of user will be divided by two types which are gender and working experience. The data that obtained from the distributed of questionnaires among respondent will be analysed by using SPSS. Data will be analysed by using two-way ANOVA statistic in order to examine the significant level in between gender and working experience as an independent variable in this study with the level of threats in cybersecurity risk towards lecturers who are working in higher education institutions in Malaysia. This article also will provide an empirical data and will be referred to another researcher in the future for their further research perhaps.

  3. An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bokan, S.

    2009-01-01

    CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

  4. Early life adversity during the infant sensitive period for attachment: Programming of behavioral neurobiology of threat processing and social behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maya Opendak

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Animals, including humans, require a highly coordinated and flexible system of social behavior and threat evaluation. However, trauma can disrupt this system, with the amygdala implicated as a mediator of these impairments in behavior. Recent evidence has further highlighted the context of infant trauma as a critical variable in determining its immediate and enduring consequences, with trauma experienced from an attachment figure, such as occurs in cases of caregiver-child maltreatment, as particularly detrimental. This review focuses on the unique role of caregiver presence during early-life trauma in programming deficits in social behavior and threat processing. Using data primarily from rodent models, we describe the interaction between trauma and attachment during a sensitive period in early life, which highlights the role of the caregiver’s presence in engagement of attachment brain circuitry and suppressing threat processing by the amygdala. These data suggest that trauma experienced directly from an abusive caregiver and trauma experienced in the presence of caregiver cues produce similar neurobehavioral deficits, which are unique from those resulting from trauma alone. We go on to integrate this information into social experience throughout the lifespan, including consequences for complex scenarios, such as dominance hierarchy formation and maintenance.

  5. Risk-sensitive mean-field games

    KAUST Repository

    Tembine, Hamidou

    2014-04-01

    In this paper, we study a class of risk-sensitive mean-field stochastic differential games. We show that under appropriate regularity conditions, the mean-field value of the stochastic differential game with exponentiated integral cost functional coincides with the value function satisfying a Hamilton -Jacobi- Bellman (HJB) equation with an additional quadratic term. We provide an explicit solution of the mean-field best response when the instantaneous cost functions are log-quadratic and the state dynamics are affine in the control. An equivalent mean-field risk-neutral problem is formulated and the corresponding mean-field equilibria are characterized in terms of backward-forward macroscopic McKean-Vlasov equations, Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations, and HJB equations. We provide numerical examples on the mean field behavior to illustrate both linear and McKean-Vlasov dynamics. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

  6. Risk-sensitive mean-field games

    KAUST Repository

    Tembine, Hamidou; Zhu, Quanyan; Başar, Tamer

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we study a class of risk-sensitive mean-field stochastic differential games. We show that under appropriate regularity conditions, the mean-field value of the stochastic differential game with exponentiated integral cost functional coincides with the value function satisfying a Hamilton -Jacobi- Bellman (HJB) equation with an additional quadratic term. We provide an explicit solution of the mean-field best response when the instantaneous cost functions are log-quadratic and the state dynamics are affine in the control. An equivalent mean-field risk-neutral problem is formulated and the corresponding mean-field equilibria are characterized in terms of backward-forward macroscopic McKean-Vlasov equations, Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations, and HJB equations. We provide numerical examples on the mean field behavior to illustrate both linear and McKean-Vlasov dynamics. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

  7. Stereotype Threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Steven J; Logel, Christine; Davies, Paul G

    2016-01-01

    When members of a stigmatized group find themselves in a situation where negative stereotypes provide a possible framework for interpreting their behavior, the risk of being judged in light of those stereotypes can elicit a disruptive state that undermines performance and aspirations in that domain. This situational predicament, termed stereotype threat, continues to be an intensely debated and researched topic in educational, social, and organizational psychology. In this review, we explore the various sources of stereotype threat, the mechanisms underlying stereotype-threat effects (both mediators and moderators), and the consequences of this situational predicament, as well as the means through which society and stigmatized individuals can overcome the insidious effects of stereotype threat. Ultimately, we hope this review alleviates some of the confusion surrounding stereotype threat while also sparking further research and debate.

  8. Risks and threats of tax state security and methods of their neutralization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.V. Lebedzevych

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article substantiates the relevance of the study to ensure security of the state tax. Scientists studied different approaches to defining the essence of the concept of "security tax" on the key features that would satisfy the interests of all subjects of tax relations and the necessity of legal consolidation of this concept. Analyzed the economic, social and legal nature of the existence of the security tax, identified key indicators of fiscal security of Ukraine. To determine the effectiveness of the tax administration in the interests of the tax security highlights the main threats, tax security risks caused by external and internal factors, and propose measures for their elimination and prevent the possibility of their occurrence. The stages of tax risk management with effective building security tax, designed structurally-logic of the tax risk management security.

  9. Psychometric and demographic predictors of the perceived risk of terrorist threats and the willingness to pay for terrorism risk management programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumpower, Jeryl L; Shi, Liu; Stoutenborough, James W; Vedlitz, Arnold

    2013-10-01

    A 2009 national telephone survey of 924 U.S. adults assessed perceptions of terrorism and homeland security issues. Respondents rated severity of effects, level of understanding, number affected, and likelihood of four terrorist threats: poisoned water supply; explosion of a small nuclear device in a major U.S. city; an airplane attack similar to 9/11; and explosion of a bomb in a building, train, subway, or highway. Respondents rated perceived risk and willingness to pay (WTP) for dealing with each threat. Demographic, attitudinal, and party affiliation data were collected. Respondents rated bomb as highest in perceived risk but gave the highest WTP ratings to nuclear device. For both perceived risk and WTP, psychometric variables were far stronger predictors than were demographic ones. OLS regression analyses using both types of variables to predict perceived risk found only two significant demographic predictors for any threat--Democrat (a negative predictor for bomb) and white male (a significant positive predictor for airline attack). In contrast, among psychometric variables, severity, number affected, and likelihood were predictors of all four threats and level of understanding was a predictor for one. For WTP, education was a negative predictor for three threats; no other demographic variables were significant predictors for any threat. Among psychometric variables, perceived risk and number affected were positive predictors of WTP for all four threats; severity and likelihood were predictors for three; level of understanding was a significant predictor for two. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Liquidity Risk Sensitivity of Czech Commercial Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavla Vodová

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The recent financial crisis has shown that a liquidity risk plays an important role in the current developed financial system. One of the efficient tools of liquidity risk management is stress testing which can show banks their potential vulnerability to liquidity shocks. The aim of this paper is therefore to measure the liquidity risk sensitivity of Czech commercial banks and to find out the most severe scenario and the most vulnerable bank. Our sample included significant part of the Czech banking sector; we used unconsolidated balance sheet data over the period from 2000 to 2011 which were obtained from annual reports of Czech banks. We have evaluated liquidity risk of each bank in the sample via six different liquidity ratios. Then we stressed these baseline values in three stress scenarios: run on a bank (simulated by a 20% withdrawal of deposits, confidence crisis on the interbank market (simulated by a withdrawal of 20% of interbank deposits and use of committed loans by counterparties (simulated by a 5% increase of loans provided to nonbank clients. We measured the impact of all scenarios by relative change of liquidity ratios. The impact of modelled liquidity shocks differs among scenarios. The most serious liquidity problems would be caused by the first scenario – run on a bank. The negative influence of third scenario (use of committed loans is less severe. The confidence crisis on the interbank market would not affect bank liquidity at all. The results also show that the severity of the impact of all scenarios worsens in periods of financial distress. We have also found that large and medium sized banks are most vulnerable to liquidity shocks, mainly to massive deposit withdrawals.

  11. Corporate risk, intelligence and governance in the time of cyber threat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Bronk

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Cyber security is an issue of foremost interest for policy makers in the world’s governments, corporations, NGOs, academic institutions, and other associations, however remedy for the myriad cyber threats and vulnerabilities continues to elude technologists and policy makers alike. In this paper, we consider the concept of cyber risk intelligence, a general concept of understanding the varied phenomena that impact an organization’s capacity to secure its digital communications and resources from eavesdropping, theft or attack. We also consider the deeper economics of information held and transmitted in digital form and how those economics may alter thinking on modeling of risk. Finally, we offer guidance of how organizations and entire sectors of business activity may want to alter their thinking on cyber security issues beyond a technological framing to an informational one aligned with business activities

  12. Climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament. From security threats to sustainable peace

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scheffran, Juergen [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Research Group Climate Change and Security

    2009-07-01

    In the future, nuclear and climate risks may interfere with each other in a mutually enforcing way. Con-flicts induced by climate change could contribute to global insecurity and create more incentives for states to rely on military force, including nuclear weapons. Rather than being a direct cause of war, cli-mate change significantly affects the delicate balance between social and environmental systems in a way that could undermine human security and societal stability with potentially grave consequences for international security. Increased reliance on nuclear energy to reduce carbon emissions will contribute to the risks of nuclear proliferation. A renewed nuclear arms race would consume considerable resources and undermine the conditions for tackling the problem of climate change in a cooperative manner. Nuclear war itself would severely destabilize human societies and the environment, not to speak of the possibility of a nuclear winter that would disrupt the atmosphere. On the other hand, finding solutions to one problem area could help to find solutions in the other. Pre-venting the dangers of climate change and nuclear war requires an integrated set of strategies that ad-dress the causes as well as the impacts on the natural and social environment. Institutions are needed to strengthen common, ecological and human security, build and reinforce conflict-resolution mechanisms and low-carbon energy alternatives, and create sustainable lifecycles that respect the capabilities of the living world. This article examines the linkages between nuclear and climate risks, identifies areas where both threats converge, and offers an approach to move from living under these security threats to building sustain-able peace. By bringing to light the multidimensional interplay between climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament, this study aims to help the reader grasp their interconnectedness and recognize its critical implications for the strategic security

  13. Climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament. From security threats to sustainable peace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scheffran, Juergen

    2009-01-01

    In the future, nuclear and climate risks may interfere with each other in a mutually enforcing way. Con-flicts induced by climate change could contribute to global insecurity and create more incentives for states to rely on military force, including nuclear weapons. Rather than being a direct cause of war, cli-mate change significantly affects the delicate balance between social and environmental systems in a way that could undermine human security and societal stability with potentially grave consequences for international security. Increased reliance on nuclear energy to reduce carbon emissions will contribute to the risks of nuclear proliferation. A renewed nuclear arms race would consume considerable resources and undermine the conditions for tackling the problem of climate change in a cooperative manner. Nuclear war itself would severely destabilize human societies and the environment, not to speak of the possibility of a nuclear winter that would disrupt the atmosphere. On the other hand, finding solutions to one problem area could help to find solutions in the other. Pre-venting the dangers of climate change and nuclear war requires an integrated set of strategies that ad-dress the causes as well as the impacts on the natural and social environment. Institutions are needed to strengthen common, ecological and human security, build and reinforce conflict-resolution mechanisms and low-carbon energy alternatives, and create sustainable lifecycles that respect the capabilities of the living world. This article examines the linkages between nuclear and climate risks, identifies areas where both threats converge, and offers an approach to move from living under these security threats to building sustain-able peace. By bringing to light the multidimensional interplay between climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament, this study aims to help the reader grasp their interconnectedness and recognize its critical implications for the strategic security

  14. An alternative approach to risk rank chemicals on the threat they pose to the aquatic environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Andrew C; Donnachie, Rachel L; Sumpter, John P; Jürgens, Monika D; Moeckel, Claudia; Pereira, M Gloria

    2017-12-01

    This work presents a new and unbiased method of risk ranking chemicals based on the threat they pose to the aquatic environment. The study ranked 12 metals, 23 pesticides, 11 other persistent organic pollutants (POPs), 13 pharmaceuticals, 10 surfactants and similar compounds and 2 nanoparticles (total of 71) of concern against one another by comparing their median UK river water and median ecotoxicity effect concentrations. To complement this, by giving an assessment on potential wildlife impacts, risk ranking was also carried out by comparing the lowest 10th percentile of the effects data with the highest 90th percentile of the exposure data. In other words, risk was pared down to just toxicity versus exposure. Further modifications included incorporating bioconcentration factors, using only recent water measurements and excluding either lethal or sub-lethal effects. The top ten chemicals, based on the medians, which emerged as having the highest risk to organisms in UK surface waters using all the ecotoxicity data were copper, aluminium, zinc, ethinylestradiol (EE2), linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS), triclosan, manganese, iron, methomyl and chlorpyrifos. By way of contrast, using current UK environmental quality standards as the comparator to median UK river water concentrations would have selected 6 different chemicals in the top ten. This approach revealed big differences in relative risk; for example, zinc presented a million times greater risk then metoprolol and LAS 550 times greater risk than nanosilver. With the exception of EE2, most pharmaceuticals were ranked as having a relatively low risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Threat engagement, disengagement, and sensitivity bias in worry-prone individuals as measured by an emotional go/no-go task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gole, Markus; Köchel, Angelika; Schäfer, Axel; Schienle, Anne

    2012-03-01

    The goal of the present study was to investigate a threat engagement, disengagement, and sensitivity bias in individuals suffering from pathological worry. Twenty participants high in worry proneness and 16 control participants low in worry proneness completed an emotional go/no-go task with worry-related threat words and neutral words. Shorter reaction times (i.e., threat engagement bias), smaller omission error rates (i.e., threat sensitivity bias), and larger commission error rates (i.e., threat disengagement bias) emerged only in the high worry group when worry-related words constituted the go-stimuli and neutral words the no-go stimuli. Also, smaller omission error rates as well as larger commission error rates were observed in the high worry group relative to the low worry group when worry-related go stimuli and neutral no-go stimuli were used. The obtained results await further replication within a generalized anxiety disorder sample. Also, further samples should include men as well. Our data suggest that worry-prone individuals are threat-sensitive, engage more rapidly with aversion, and disengage harder. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security. Threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brauch, Hans Guenter [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Political and Social Sciences; UNU-EHS, Bonn (DE). College of Associated Scientists and Advisors (CASA); Oswald Spring, Ursula [National Univ. of Mexico, Cuernavaca (MX). Regional Multidisciplinary Research Centre (CRIM); Mesjasz, Czeslaw [Cracow Univ. of Exonomics (Poland). Faculty of Management; Grin, John [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Dept. of Political Science; Dutch Knowledge network for Systems Innovations and Transitions (KSI), Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kameri-Mbote, Patricia [Strathmore Univ., Nairobi (Kenya). Dept. of Law; International Environmental Law Research Centre, Nairobi (Kenya); Chourou, Bechir [Univ. of Tunis-Carthage, Hammam-Chatt (Tunisia); Dunay, Pal [Geneva Centre for Security Policy (Switzerland). International Training Course in Security Policy; Birkmann, Joern (eds.) [United Nations Univ. (UNU), Bonn (DE). Inst. for Environment and Human Security (EHS)

    2011-07-01

    This policy-focused Global Environmental and Human Security Handbook for the Anthropo-cene (GEHSHA) addresses new security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks posed by global environmental change and disasters. In 6 forewords, 5 preface essays 95 peer reviewed chapcountries analyse in 10 parts concepts of military and political hard security and economic, social, environmental soft security with a regional focus on the Near East, North and Sub-Sahara Africa and Asia and on hazards in urban centres. The major focus is on coping with global environmental change: climate change, desertification, water, food and health and with hazards and strategies on social vulnerability and resilience building and scientific, international, regional and national political strategies, policies and measures including early warning of conflicts and hazards. The book proposes a political geo-ecology and discusses a 'Fourth Green Revolution' for the Anthropocene era of earth history. (orig.)

  17. RISKS, THREATS AND VULNERABILITIES IN THE COMPLEX DYNAMIC OF THE SYRIAN CONFLICT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raluca-Irina IONIȚĂ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The regional conflict that takes place now in the middle east from Afghanistan, Iraq to Syria has proven to be incrementally complex and difficult to manage from a geo-political point of view. It is becoming harder to know who are the violent non-state actors and who is backing them, turning what was at first a civil war into a proxy war between the western countries on one side and Russia, pro al-assad forces and Iran. Also, Turkey who at once was considered to be an important ally to the US has now grown closer to Russian interests, bombing kurdish troops backed by the US. In this regard it is becoming obvious that there are a number of threats, risks, and vulnerabilities that arise in an unpredictable manner. In conclusion, this paper analyzes the main solutions that can be adopted in order to control and manage the complex dynamic that are unfolding in Syria.

  18. Identifying at-risk employees: A behavioral model for predicting potential insider threats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Noonan, Christine F.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2010-09-01

    A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee’s behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. In many of these crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they could be assessed by a person experienced in psychosocial evaluations. We have developed a model using a Bayesian belief network with the help of human resources staff, experienced in evaluating behaviors in staff. We conducted an experiment to assess its agreement with human resources and management professionals, with positive results. If implemented in an operational setting, the model would be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment that can raise an alarm about employees who pose higher insider threat risks. In separate work, we combine this psychosocial model’s assessment with computer workstation behavior to raise the efficacy of recognizing an insider crime in the making.

  19. The Millennial generation as an insider threat: high risk or overhyped?

    OpenAIRE

    Fisher, David J.

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Cyber security experts agree that insider threats are and will continue to be a threat to every organization. These threats come from trusted co-workers who, for one reason or another, betray their organizations and steal data, disrupt information systems, or corrupt the data. Millennials are commonly thought of as entitled, high maintenance, and less trustworthy than the older generations; in other words, they have personality traits ...

  20. Sensitivity in risk analyses with uncertain numbers.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tucker, W. Troy; Ferson, Scott

    2006-06-01

    Sensitivity analysis is a study of how changes in the inputs to a model influence the results of the model. Many techniques have recently been proposed for use when the model is probabilistic. This report considers the related problem of sensitivity analysis when the model includes uncertain numbers that can involve both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and the method of calculation is Dempster-Shafer evidence theory or probability bounds analysis. Some traditional methods for sensitivity analysis generalize directly for use with uncertain numbers, but, in some respects, sensitivity analysis for these analyses differs from traditional deterministic or probabilistic sensitivity analyses. A case study of a dike reliability assessment illustrates several methods of sensitivity analysis, including traditional probabilistic assessment, local derivatives, and a ''pinching'' strategy that hypothetically reduces the epistemic uncertainty or aleatory uncertainty, or both, in an input variable to estimate the reduction of uncertainty in the outputs. The prospects for applying the methods to black box models are also considered.

  1. Cyber threat metrics.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frye, Jason Neal; Veitch, Cynthia K.; Mateski, Mark Elliot; Michalski, John T.; Harris, James Mark; Trevino, Cassandra M.; Maruoka, Scott

    2012-03-01

    Threats are generally much easier to list than to describe, and much easier to describe than to measure. As a result, many organizations list threats. Fewer describe them in useful terms, and still fewer measure them in meaningful ways. This is particularly true in the dynamic and nebulous domain of cyber threats - a domain that tends to resist easy measurement and, in some cases, appears to defy any measurement. We believe the problem is tractable. In this report we describe threat metrics and models for characterizing threats consistently and unambiguously. The purpose of this report is to support the Operational Threat Assessment (OTA) phase of risk and vulnerability assessment. To this end, we focus on the task of characterizing cyber threats using consistent threat metrics and models. In particular, we address threat metrics and models for describing malicious cyber threats to US FCEB agencies and systems.

  2. Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S.; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

    2015-02-01

    Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer - numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups.

  3. Neural computations underlying social risk sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina eLauharatanahirun

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Under standard models of expected utility, preferences over stochastic events are assumed to be independent of the source of uncertainty. Thus, in decision-making, an agent should exhibit consistent preferences, regardless of whether the uncertainty derives from the unpredictability of a random process or the unpredictability of a social partner. However, when a social partner is the source of uncertainty, social preferences can influence decisions over and above pure risk attitudes. Here, we compared risk-related hemodynamic activity and individual preferences for two sets of options that differ only in the social or non-social nature of the risk. Risk preferences in social and non-social contexts were systematically related to neural activity during decision and outcome phases of each choice. Individuals who were more risk averse in the social context exhibited decreased risk-related activity in the amygdala during non-social decisions, while individuals who were more risk averse in the non-social context exhibited the opposite pattern. Differential risk preferences were similarly associated with hemodynamic activity in ventral striatum at the outcome of these decisions. These findings suggest that social preferences, including aversion to betrayal or exploitation by social partners, may be associated with variability in the response of these subcortical regions to social risk.

  4. Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S.; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer – numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups. PMID:25649757

  5. Information Technology Security and Human Risk: Exploring Factors of Unintended Insider Threat and Organizational Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Eleanor Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    That organizations face threats to the security of their computer systems from external hackers is well documented. Intentional or unintentional behaviors by organizational insiders can severely compromise computer security as well. Less is known, however, about the nature of this threat from insiders. The purpose of this study was to bridge this…

  6. Predictors of Maternal Sensitivity in At-Risk Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuhauser, Alex

    2018-01-01

    Maternal sensitivity is of central importance to a child's healthy development. This study examines how different types of psychosocial stress originating from the child, the parents, the context, and overall stress relate to maternal sensitivity. Psychosocial stress and its impact on maternal sensitivity are assessed in an at-risk sample of 248…

  7. Human element of corporate espionage risk management : literature review on assessment and control of outsider and insider threats

    OpenAIRE

    Sandberg, Jarkko

    2015-01-01

    The primary purpose of this study is to determine how suitable human risk management con- trols are against corporate espionage. Information risks are ascending problem with corpora- tions all over the world. Cyber attacks are commonplace, and the attackers are often trying to compromise valuable data assets. These malicious targeted attacks are bypassing traditional information security controls; therefore, organizations are endangered by these threats. Since the traditional information secu...

  8. Psychosocial Modeling of Insider Threat Risk Based on Behavioral and Word Use Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Noonan, Christine F.; Brown, Christopher R.; Ferryman, Thomas A.

    2013-10-01

    In many insider crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they can be assessed. A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee’s behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. A complementary Personality Factor modeling approach was developed based on analysis to derive relevant personality characteristics from word use. Several implementations of the psychosocial model were evaluated by comparing their agreement with judgments of human resources and management professionals; the personality factor modeling approach was examined using email samples. If implemented in an operational setting, these models should be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment to identify employees who pose a greater insider threat.

  9. Simulating the Adaptive Mechanisms to Reduce the Risks of Occurence of Threats to the Economic Security of Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glushchevsky Vyacheslav V.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with addressing the topical problem of effectively countering real and potential threats to economic security of enterprises and reducing the risks of their occurrence. The article is aimed at simulating the adaptive mechanisms to counteract external influences on the marketing component of enterprise’s economic security and developing a system of measures for removing threats to price destabilization of its orders portfolio based on a modern economic-mathematical instrumentarium. The common causes of the threats occurrence related to the price policy of enterprise and the tactics of the contractual processes with the business partners have been explored. Hidden reserves for price maneuvering in concluding contracts with customers have been identified. An algorithmic model for an adaptive pricing task in terms of an assortment of industrial enterprise has been built. On the basis of this model, mechanisms have been developed to counteract the threats of occurrence and aggravation of a «price conflict» between the producing enterprise and the potential customers of its products, and to advise on how to remove the risks of their occurrence. Prospects for using the methodology together with the instrumentarium for economic-mathematical modeling in terms of tasks of the price risks management have been indicated.

  10. Risk Factor Knowledge, Perceived Threat, and Protective Health Behaviors: Implications for Type 2 Diabetes Control in Rural Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paige, Samantha R; Bonnar, Kelly K; Black, David R; Coster, Daniel C

    2018-02-01

    Purpose The purpose of this study was to explore how perceived threat of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is shaped by risk factor knowledge and promotes the engagement of protective health behaviors among rural adults. Methods Participants (N = 252) completed a cross-sectional mixed-mode survey. Chi-squared analyses were computed to examine differences in perceived threat by demographic factors and knowledge of T2D risk factors. Logistic regressions were conducted to examine the relationship between T2D perceived threat and engagement in physical activity and health screenings. Results Perceived threat and knowledge of T2D risk factors were high. Perceived susceptibility was significantly higher among women, whites, and respondents with high body mass index (BMI). Respondents reporting physical activity most/almost every day had low perceived susceptibility to T2D. Perceived severity was significantly higher among respondents with high BMI. Blood cholesterol and glucose screenings were associated with greater T2D perceived susceptibility and severity. Higher BMI was associated with receiving a blood glucose screening. Conclusion Health education specialists and researchers should further explore the implications of using audience segmented fear appeal messages to promote T2D control through protective health behaviors.

  11. Risk-Sensitive Control with Near Monotone Cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biswas, Anup; Borkar, V. S.; Suresh Kumar, K.

    2010-01-01

    The infinite horizon risk-sensitive control problem for non-degenerate controlled diffusions is analyzed under a 'near monotonicity' condition on the running cost that penalizes large excursions of the process.

  12. Importance and sensitivity of parameters affecting the Zion Seismic Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, L.L.; O'Connell, W.J.

    1985-06-01

    This report presents the results of a study on the importance and sensitivity of structures, systems, equipment, components and design parameters used in the Zion Seismic Risk Calculations. This study is part of the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) supported by the NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The objective of this study is to provide the NRC with results on the importance and sensitivity of parameters used to evaluate seismic risk. These results can assist the NRC in making decisions dealing with the allocation of research resources on seismic issues. This study uses marginal analysis in addition to importance and sensitivity analysis to identify subject areas (input parameter areas) for improvements that reduce risk, estimate how much the improvement dfforts reduce risk, and rank the subject areas for improvements. Importance analysis identifies the systems, components, and parameters that are important to risk. Sensitivity analysis estimates the change in risk per unit improvement. Marginal analysis indicates the reduction in risk or uncertainty for improvement effort made in each subject area. The results described in this study were generated using the SEISIM (Systematic Evaluation of Important Safety Improvement Measures) and CHAIN computer codes. Part 1 of the SEISIM computer code generated the failure probabilities and risk values. Part 2 of SEISIM, along with the CHAIN computer code, generated the importance and sensitivity measures

  13. Importance and sensitivity of parameters affecting the Zion Seismic Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George, L.L.; O' Connell, W.J.

    1985-06-01

    This report presents the results of a study on the importance and sensitivity of structures, systems, equipment, components and design parameters used in the Zion Seismic Risk Calculations. This study is part of the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) supported by the NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The objective of this study is to provide the NRC with results on the importance and sensitivity of parameters used to evaluate seismic risk. These results can assist the NRC in making decisions dealing with the allocation of research resources on seismic issues. This study uses marginal analysis in addition to importance and sensitivity analysis to identify subject areas (input parameter areas) for improvements that reduce risk, estimate how much the improvement dfforts reduce risk, and rank the subject areas for improvements. Importance analysis identifies the systems, components, and parameters that are important to risk. Sensitivity analysis estimates the change in risk per unit improvement. Marginal analysis indicates the reduction in risk or uncertainty for improvement effort made in each subject area. The results described in this study were generated using the SEISIM (Systematic Evaluation of Important Safety Improvement Measures) and CHAIN computer codes. Part 1 of the SEISIM computer code generated the failure probabilities and risk values. Part 2 of SEISIM, along with the CHAIN computer code, generated the importance and sensitivity measures.

  14. Perceived Threat, Risk Perception, and Efficacy Beliefs Related to SARS and Other (Emerging) Infectious Diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Zwart, Onno; Veldhuijzen, Irene; Elam, Gillian

    2009-01-01

    PURPOSE: To study the levels of perceived threat, perceived severity, perceived vulnerability, response efficacy, and self-efficacy for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and eight other diseases in five European and three Asian countries. METHOD: A computer-assisted phone survey was conduc......PURPOSE: To study the levels of perceived threat, perceived severity, perceived vulnerability, response efficacy, and self-efficacy for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and eight other diseases in five European and three Asian countries. METHOD: A computer-assisted phone survey...... was conducted among 3,436 respondents. The questionnaire focused on perceived threat, vulnerability, severity, response efficacy, and self-efficacy related to SARS and eight other diseases. RESULTS: Perceived threat of SARS in case of an outbreak in the country was higher than that of other diseases. Perceived...... vulnerability of SARS was at an intermediate level and perceived severity was high compared to other diseases. Perceived threat for SARS varied between countries in Europe and Asia with a higher perceived severity of SARS in Europe and a higher perceived vulnerability in Asia. Response efficacy and self...

  15. Development of a Model for Quantitative Assessment of Risks and Identification of Threats in Anti-Crisis Management of a Machine-Building Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozyk Vasyl V.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to develop a model for quantitative assessment of risks in anti-crisis management of a machine-building enterprise. The quantitative assessment will allow to identify among the risks the threats that can be considered as catastrophic risks. To assess the integral risk of anti-crisis management of the enterprise, there used a process approach distinguishing the process of anti-crisis management activity and the process of implementation of the anti-crisis program. Within the framework of the process the types of activity are singled out, for each of them risks are identified with revealing their reasons. There built a fuzzy hierarchical model comprising the following elements: terminal nodes — indicators (factors of risks; non-terminal nodes — separate risks that are characteristic for the processes and risks of each process as a whole; root of the tree — the integral risk of anti-crisis management. The expediency of building a hierarchical fuzzy model, within which conclusions are formed for intermediate variables, is substantiated. Based on the own research and taking into account the opinion of experts, the parameters of the trapezoidal membership functions for assessing indicators and risks are determined. Fuzzy bases of knowledge about the correlation are formed using the Mamdani algorithm. The adequacy of the model is estimated on the basis of the learning sample. The built fuzzy model makes it possible to obtain risk assessment based on the set values of the indicators, thus providing an analysis of the sensitivity of risks to various factors. It is easily adjusted to other conditions and types of economic activity of the enterprise.

  16. Framing effects and risk-sensitive decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Sandeep; Gregson, Margaux; Lalumière, Martin L

    2012-02-01

    Prospect theory suggests that people are risk-averse when facing gains, but risk-prone when facing losses, a pattern known as the framing effect. Although framing effects have been widely demonstrated, few studies have investigated framing effects under conditions of need. Risk-sensitivity theory predicts that decision makers should prefer high-risk options in situations of high need, when lower risk options are unlikely to meet those needs. In two experiments, we examined (1) whether framing effects occurred in behavioural tasks involving risky decision making from description and decision making from experience, (2) whether participants' risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory, and (3) whether decision framing interacted with conditions of need to influence decision making under risk. The results suggest that under all circumstances, risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory. Framing effects were at least partially demonstrable under all experimental conditions. Finally, negative frames interacted with situations of high need to produce particularly elevated levels of risky choice. Together, the results suggest that risk-sensitivity theory can augment prospect theory to explain choice under conditions of need. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  17. Alleged Death Threats, a Hunger Strike, and a Department at Risk Over a Tenure Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leatherman, Courtney

    2000-01-01

    Reports on a tenure controversy within the Indiana University department of Near Eastern Languages and Cultures that has involved possible death threats, a hunger strike, and controversy over the department's continued existence. For now the professor, an expert on Islamic philosophy, remains at the institution, other faculty have left, and…

  18. Global analysis of threat status reveals higher extinction risk in tropical than in temperate bird sister species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reif Jiří

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given increasing pressures upon biodiversity, identification of species’ traits related to elevated extinction risk is useful for more efficient allocation of limited resources for nature conservation. Despite its need, such a global analysis was lacking in the case of birds. Therefore, we performed this exercise for avian sister species using information about their global extinction risk from IUCN Red List. We focused on 113 pairs of sister species, each containing a threatened and an unthreatened species to factor out the effects of common evolutionary history on the revealed relationship. We collected data on five traits with expected relationships to species’ extinction risk based on previous studies performed at regional or national levels: breeding habitat (recognizing forest, grassland, wetland and oceanic species, latitudinal range position (temperate and tropics species, migration strategy (migratory and resident species, diet (carnivorous, insectivorous, herbivorous and omnivorous species and body mass. We related the extinction risk using IUCN threat level categories to species’ traits using generalised linear mixed effects models expecting lower risk for forest, temperate, omnivorous and smaller-bodied species. Our expectation was confirmed only in the case of latitudinal range position, as we revealed higher threat level for tropical than for temperate species. This relationship was robust to different methods of threat level expression and cannot be explained by a simple association of high bird species richness with the tropical zone. Instead, it seems that tropical species are more threatened because of their intrinsic characteristics such as slow life histories, adaptations to stable environments and small geographic ranges. These characteristics are obviously disadvantageous in conditions of current human-induced environmental perturbations. Moreover, given the absence of habitat effects, our study indicates that such

  19. E-War : an early warning and response methodology for buildings at risk to chemical and biological threats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rastan, S.; Kozinski, J. [McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ (Canada); Foo, S.; Morofsky, E. [Public Works and Government Services, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Indoor Environments and Healthy Buildings

    2004-07-01

    Several government departments, academic institutions and private firms have collaborated on a research project to develop an Early Warning and Response (e-WAR) method to protect occupants in high-risk public buildings from chemical and biological threats. The project involves a heat, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) based monitoring system equipped with photo ionization and laser particle counter technologies to characterize baseline airborne concentrations. E-WAR recognizes out-of-norm events and instantly triggers a set of just-in-case (JIC) filtration, in-duct neutralization and decontamination responses to reduce the dispersion of toxic airborne materials within the building. The proposed system reduced the severity of any potential threat, as well as the cost of remediation. A scale model of the proposed system has been designed and developed. 45 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.

  20. Dual-Use Threat Assessment Framework - An Attempt to Quantify the Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephen, E. R.; Lavigne, J. J.; Colton, B.

    2007-01-01

    Advances in the biosciences over the past decade have been rapid and transformative. While these advances offer significant benefit to society, they also provide very significant challenges in terms of security. Concerns over misuse and/or accidental use/release (dual use) although not new, are now being viewed through the security lens. There is a wide-spread view that public or private sector scientists, supported through investments by pharmaceutical, environmental and agricultural interests working in the fields that comprise biotechnology, posses the ability to assess the implications of their own work and work within a regime of self-control that is for the most part self-governing (codes of practice). On the other end of the spectrum are those that would codify or legislative control. All this is being done in the absence of a mechanism for quantifying the threat. This presentation will discuss the development of an assessment framework that addresses both actual and potential threats. The framework was developed based on available intelligence and other open source information along with interviews with those persons familiar with the concept of dual use and the multiple, sometimes competing agendas of a variety of interest groups. The framework will help to bring some clarity to the discussion and at the same time, help to inform those that are positioned to respond to the threat. (author)

  1. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses in aging risk-based prioritizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, M.; Uryas'ev, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Aging risk evaluations of nuclear power plants using Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs) involve assessments of the impact of aging structures, systems, and components (SSCs) on plant core damage frequency (CDF). These assessments can be used to prioritize the contributors to aging risk reflecting the relative risk potential of the SSCs. Aging prioritizations are important for identifying the SSCs contributing most to plant risk and can provide a systematic basis on which aging risk control and management strategies for a plant can be developed. However, these prioritizations are subject to variabilities arising from uncertainties in data, and/or from various modeling assumptions. The objective of this paper is to present an evaluation of the sensitivity of aging prioritizations of active components to uncertainties in aging risk quantifications. Approaches for robust prioritization of SSCs also are presented which are less susceptible to the uncertainties

  2. Risk factors associated with sensitization to hydroxyisohexyl 3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uter, Wolfgang; Geier, Johannes; Schnuch, Axel; Gefeller, Olaf

    2013-08-01

    Hydroxyisohexyl 3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde (HICC) is a synthetic fragrance chemical and an important contact allergen, at least in Europe. Despite this importance, little is known about risk factors associated with this allergen. To examine factors from the history and clinical presentation of patch tested patients associated with HICC sensitization. Contact allergy surveillance data of 95 637 patients collected by the Information Network of Departments of Dermatology (IVDK, www.ivkd.org) in 2002-2011 were analysed. Point and interval estimates of the relative risk were derived from multifactorial logistic regression modelling. The overall prevalence of HICC sensitization was 2.24%. The strongest risk factors were polysensitization and dermatitis of the axillae, followed by dermatitis at other sites. No consistent and significant time trend was observed in this analysis. As compared with the youngest patients, the odds of HICC sensitization increased approximately three-fold in the 52-67-year age group, and strongly declined with further increasing age. The risk pattern with regard to age and affected anatomical site differed from that observed with other fragrance screening allergens. Cosmetic exposure, as broadly defined here, was a stronger and more prevalent individual risk factor than occupational exposure. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Reference-dependent risk sensitivity as rational inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denrell, Jerker C

    2015-07-01

    Existing explanations of reference-dependent risk sensitivity attribute it to cognitive imperfections and heuristic choice processes. This article shows that behavior consistent with an S-shaped value function could be an implication of rational inferences about the expected values of alternatives. Theoretically, I demonstrate that even a risk-neutral Bayesian decision maker, who is uncertain about the reliability of observations, should use variability in observed outcomes as a predictor of low expected value for outcomes above a reference level, and as a predictor of high expected value for outcomes below a reference level. Empirically, I show that combining past outcomes using an S-shaped value function leads to accurate predictions about future values. The theory also offers a rationale for why risk sensitivity consistent with an inverse S-shaped value function should occur in experiments on decisions from experience with binary payoff distributions. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Risk Factors: Colleges Look to Manage Threats Ranging from Fraud to Data Breaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Lisa M.

    2011-01-01

    When an individual hears the term risk, he/she usually thinks of the financial institutions whose mismanagement of risk was instrumental in causing the 2008 financial crash. But all organizations, including colleges and universities, face various types and levels of risk, which threaten to harm the institutions and their ability to fulfill their…

  5. Different groups, different threats: a multi-threat approach to the experience of stereotype threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Jenessa R

    2011-04-01

    Two studies demonstrated that different negatively stereotyped groups are at risk for distinct forms of stereotype threats. The Multi-Threat Framework articulates six distinct stereotype threats and the unique constellations of variables (e.g., group identification, stereotype endorsement) that elicit each stereotype threat. Previous research suggests that different negatively stereotyped groups systematically vary across these stereotype threat elicitors; a pilot study confirms these differences. Across two studies, groups that tend to elicit low stereotype endorsement (religion, race/ethnicity, congenital blindness) were less likely to report experiencing self-as-source stereotype threats (stereotype threats requiring stereotype endorsement) and groups that tend to elicit low group identification (mental illness, obesity, blindness later in life) were less likely to report experiencing group-as-target stereotype threats (stereotype threats requiring group identification). This research suggests that traditional models may overlook the experiences of stereotype threats within some groups and that interventions tailored to address differences between stereotype threats will be most effective.

  6. Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

  7. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  8. Sensitivity of risk parameters to human errors for a PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.; Hall, R.E.; Kerr, W.

    1980-01-01

    Sensitivities of the risk parameters, emergency safety system unavailabilities, accident sequence probabilities, release category probabilities and core melt probability were investigated for changes in the human error rates within the general methodological framework of the Reactor Safety Study for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Impact of individual human errors were assessed both in terms of their structural importance to core melt and reliability importance on core melt probability. The Human Error Sensitivity Assessment of a PWR (HESAP) computer code was written for the purpose of this study

  9. Attentional bias to threat in children at-risk for emotional disorders: role of gender and type of maternal emotional disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montagner, Rachel; Mogg, Karin; Bradley, Brendan P; Pine, Daniel S; Czykiel, Marcelo S; Miguel, Euripedes Constantino; Rohde, Luis A; Manfro, Gisele G; Salum, Giovanni A

    2016-07-01

    Previous studies suggested that threat biases underlie familial risk for emotional disorders in children. However, major questions remain concerning the moderating role of the offspring gender and the type of parental emotional disorder on this association. This study addresses these questions in a large sample of boys and girls. Participants were 6-12 years old (at screening) typically developing children participating in the High Risk Cohort Study for Psychiatric Disorders (n = 1280; 606 girls, 674 boys). Children were stratified according to maternal emotional disorder (none; mood disorder; anxiety disorder; comorbid anxiety/mood disorder) and gender. Attention biases were assessed using a dot-probe paradigm with threat, happy and neutral faces. A significant gender-by-parental emotional disorder interaction predicted threat bias, independent of anxiety and depression symptoms in children. Daughters of mothers with an emotional disorder showed increased attention to threat compared with daughters of disorder-free mothers, irrespective of the type of maternal emotion disorder. In contrast, attention bias to threat in boys only occurred in mothers with a non-comorbid mood disorder. No group differences were found for biases for happy-face cues. Gender and type of maternal emotional disorder predict attention bias in disorder-free children. This highlights the need for longitudinal research to clarify whether this pattern of threat-attention bias in children relates to the risk of developing anxiety and mood disorders later in life.

  10. In chemico skin sensitization risk assessment of botanical ingredients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avonto, Cristina; Chittiboyina, Amar G; Sadrieh, Nakissa; Vukmanovic, Stanislav; Khan, Ikhlas A

    2018-03-24

    Skin sensitization risk assessment of botanical ingredients is necessary for consumers' protection and occupational hazard identification. There are currently very few available alternative methods that can assist in the evaluation of complex mixtures. Chemical methods can provide essential information in a timely manner and thus help to reduce the need for in vivo testing, and they can complement and facilitate targeted in vitro assays. In the present work, the applicability of the high-throughput screening with dansyl cysteamine (DCYA) method for the systematic evaluation of skin sensitization of complex botanicals was explored. Botanical ingredients of four unrelated plant species were obtained and tested with the high-throughput fluorescence method at three concentrations. To illustrate the minimal matrix effects of the tested extracts on the developed method, the least DCYA-reactive extract (Rosa canina) was spiked with known sensitizers at different concentrations. The data obtained from the four plant extracts and the spiking experiments with known sensitizers, suggest that the high-throughput screening-DCYA method can be successfully applied for estimating the skin sensitization potential of complex botanical matrices. This is the first report of an attempt to develop a versatile in chemico method for the rapid detection of reactive skin sensitizers in complex botanical extracts, which could complement the battery of existing validated, non-animal methods. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Threats to at-risk species in America's private forests: a Forests on the Edge report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary A. Carr; Ronald E. McRoberts; Lisa G. Mahal; Sara J. Comas

    2010-01-01

    More than 4,600 native animal and plant species associated with private forests in the United States are at risk of decline or extinction. This report identifies areas across the conterminous United States where at-risk species habitats in rural private forests are most likely to decrease because of increases in housing density from 2000 to 2030. We also identify areas...

  12. Migrants and emerging public health issues in a globalized world: threats, risks and challenges, an evidence-based framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gushulak, Bd; Weekers, J; Macpherson, Dw

    2009-01-01

    International population mobility is an underlying factor in the emergence of public health threats and risks that must be managed globally. These risks are often related, but not limited, to transmissible pathogens. Mobile populations can link zones of disease emergence to lowprevalence or nonendemic areas through rapid or high-volume international movements, or both. Against this background of human movement, other global processes such as economics, trade, transportation, environment and climate change, as well as civil security influence the health impacts of disease emergence. Concurrently, global information systems, together with regulatory frameworks for disease surveillance and reporting, affect organizational and public awareness of events of potential public health significance. International regulations directed at disease mitigation and control have not kept pace with the growing challenges associated with the volume, speed, diversity, and disparity of modern patterns of human movement. The thesis that human population mobility is itself a major determinant of global public health is supported in this article by review of the published literature from the perspective of determinants of health (such as genetics/biology, behavior, environment, and socioeconomics), population-based disease prevalence differences, existing national and international health policies and regulations, as well as inter-regional shifts in population demographics and health outcomes. This paper highlights some of the emerging threats and risks to public health, identifies gaps in existing frameworks to manage health issues associated with migration, and suggests changes in approach to population mobility, globalization, and public health. The proposed integrated approach includes a broad spectrum of stakeholders ranging from individual health-care providers to policy makers and international organizations that are primarily involved in global health management, or are influenced

  13. Risk communication: climate change as a human-health threat, a survey of public perceptions in Malta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBono, Roberto; Vincenti, Karen; Calleja, Neville

    2012-02-01

    Scientific evidence shows that climate change is very likely the product of human behaviour and lifestyle. The effects of climate change on human health are diverse in nature and range from direct effects due to extreme weather events such as heat waves, floods and storms, to indirect effects such as those caused by water and food shortages. A telephone survey was conducted between January and February 2009, on a stratified representative random sample of the Maltese population over the age of 18 years (N = 310,819). Five hundred and forty-three individuals successfully participated in the survey giving a response rate of 92.7%. The respondent sample was very similar to the target population by gender (P = 0.977), age (P = 0.767) and district (P = 0.812). The results of the study demonstrate a very strong relationship between the perception of climate change as a threat to health and well-being, support for climate change mitigation policy and a willingness to implement measures to address climate change. The findings of this study show that the perception that climate change may claim lives, cause disease, reduce the standard of living and worsen water shortages, may be the strongest driver behind support for climate change mitigation policy and a willingness to act. It is recommended that, in order to gain more public support, climate change campaigns and risk communication strategies should frame climate change as a threat to human health and general well-being.

  14. Basic concepts on threat, vulnerability and risk associated to a process of massive use of gaseous fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ospina G, J.A.

    1998-01-01

    The massive use of gaseous fuels, natural gas and liquefied gas of the oil or G.L.P., demands the implementation and complex technologies utilization in each one of the technical activities operative that transportation, distribution and consumption of these fuels requires, in order to accomplish each one of they in the form most efficient and possible insurance. Natural phenomena (earthquakes, landslides) and technical phenomena and caused by the man (terrorism, not appropriate designs of transportation and distribution net, wrong manipulation of the gas equipment) represent a latent danger for the distributors as well as for the users of the gas, generating a threat, of large proportions, for the normal development of the program of massive use of the gas, in any geographical environment where this is implemented. In this article are described the disaster concepts, threat, vulnerability and risk and the form as are related to the project of massive use of the gas, basically to transportation areas, distribution and final use

  15. Robust bounds on risk-sensitive functionals via Renyi divergence

    OpenAIRE

    Atar, Rami; Chowdhary, Kamaljit; Dupuis, Paul

    2013-01-01

    We extend the duality between exponential integrals and relative entropy to a variational formula for exponential integrals involving the Renyi divergence. This formula characterizes the dependence of risk-sensitive functionals and related quantities determined by tail behavior to perturbations in the underlying distributions, in terms of the Renyi divergence. The characterization gives rise to upper and lower bounds that are meaningful for all values of a large deviation scaling parameter, a...

  16. Insulin-Sensitizers, Polycystic Ovary Syndrome and Gynaecological Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauretta, Rosa; Lanzolla, Giulia; Vici, Patrizia; Mariani, Luciano; Moretti, Costanzo

    2016-01-01

    Preclinical, early phase clinical trials and epidemiological evidence support the potential role of insulin-sensitizers in cancer prevention and treatment. Insulin-sensitizers improve the metabolic and hormonal profile in PCOS patients and may also act as anticancer agents, especially in cancers associated with hyperinsulinemia and oestrogen dependent cancers. Several lines of evidence support the protection against cancer exerted by dietary inositol, in particular inositol hexaphosphate. Metformin, thiazolidinediones, and myoinositol postreceptor signaling may exhibit direct inhibitory effects on cancer cell growth. AMPK, the main molecular target of metformin, is emerging as a target for cancer prevention and treatment. PCOS may be correlated to an increased risk for developing ovarian and endometrial cancer (up to threefold). Several studies have demonstrated an increase in mortality rate from ovarian cancer among overweight/obese PCOS women compared with normal weight women. Long-term use of metformin has been associated with lower rates of ovarian cancer. Considering the evidence supporting a higher risk of gynaecological cancer in PCOS women, we discuss the potential use of insulin-sensitizers as a potential tool for chemoprevention, hypothesizing a possible rationale through which insulin-sensitizers may inhibit tumourigenesis. PMID:27725832

  17. At-Risk Brand Relationships and Threats to the Bottom Line

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hupp Oliver

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Like a stock portfolio, each relationship type offers a brand higher or lower growth opportunities and risks. The type of relationship is particularly relevant in brand crisis events. When a brand is hit by a crisis, it is not necessarily the most successful strategy to focus exclusively on protecting positive emotional relationships. At-risk relationships are affected more than others and can lead to a significant decline of brand value.

  18. Hybrid threats, cyber warfare and NATO's comprehensive approach for countering 21st century threats: mapping the new frontier of global risk and security management

    OpenAIRE

    Bachmann, Sascha

    2011-01-01

    The end of the so-called ‘Cold War’ has seen a change in the nature of present threats and with it to the overall role and mission of NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact in 1991 also removed the original raison d’etre of the Alliance: the prospect of having to repel a Soviet led attack by the Warsaw Pact on the West through the so called ‘Fulda gap’ in Germany (referring to the German lowlands between Frankfurt am Main and the for...

  19. Reflexive Positioning in a Politically Sensitive Situation: Dealing with the Threats of Researching the West Bank Settler Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Possick, Chaya

    2009-01-01

    For the past 7 years, the author has conducted qualitative research projects revolving around the experiences of West Bank settlers. The political situation in Israel in general, and the West Bank in particular, has undergone rapid and dramatic political, military, and social changes during this period. In highly politically sensitive situations…

  20. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V.

    2017-01-01

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider’s server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs’ users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs’ risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs’ risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing. PMID:28335569

  1. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V

    2017-03-21

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider's server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs' users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs' risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs' risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing.

  2. A threat-vulnerability based risk analysis model for cyber physical system security

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ledwaba, Lehlogonolo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available model. An analysis of the Natanz system shows that, with an actual case security-risk score at Mitigation level 5, the infested facilities barely avoided a situation worse than the one which occurred. The paper concludes with a discussion on the need...

  3. Sensitivity of Asteroid Impact Risk to Uncertainty in Asteroid Properties and Entry Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; Dotson, Jessie L.; NASA Asteroid Threat Assessment Project

    2017-10-01

    A central challenge in assessing the threat posed by asteroids striking Earth is the large amount of uncertainty inherent throughout all aspects of the problem. Many asteroid properties are not well characterized and can range widely from strong, dense, monolithic irons to loosely bound, highly porous rubble piles. Even for an object of known properties, the specific entry velocity, angle, and impact location can swing the potential consequence from no damage to causing millions of casualties. Due to the extreme rarity of large asteroid strikes, there are also large uncertainties in how different types of asteroids will interact with the atmosphere during entry, how readily they may break up or ablate, and how much surface damage will be caused by the resulting airbursts or impacts.In this work, we use our Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate the sensitivity of asteroid impact damage to uncertainties in key asteroid properties, entry parameters, or modeling assumptions. The PAIR model combines physics-based analytic models of asteroid entry and damage in a probabilistic Monte Carlo framework to assess the risk posed by a wide range of potential impacts. The model samples from uncertainty distributions of asteroid properties and entry parameters to generate millions of specific impact cases, and models the atmospheric entry and damage for each case, including blast overpressure, thermal radiation, tsunami inundation, and global effects. To assess the risk sensitivity, we alternately fix and vary the different input parameters and compare the effect on the resulting range of damage produced. The goal of these studies is to help guide future efforts in asteroid characterization and model refinement by determining which properties most significantly affect the potential risk.

  4. Threats and risks to information security: a practical analysis of free access wireless networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quirumbay, Daniel I.; Coronel, Iván. A.; Bayas, Marcia M.; Rovira, Ronald H.; Gromaszek, Konrad; Tleshova, Akmaral; Kozbekova, Ainur

    2017-08-01

    Nowadays, there is an ever-growing need to investigate, consult and communicate through the internet. This need leads to the intensification of free access to the web in strategic and functional points for the benefit of the community. However, this open access is also related to the increase of information insecurity. The existing works on computer security primarily focus on the development of techniques to reduce cyber-attacks. However, these approaches do not address the sector of inexperienced users who have difficulty understanding browser settings. Two methods can solve this problem: first the development of friendly browsers with intuitive setups for new users and on the other hand, by implementing awareness programs on essential security without deepening on technical information. This article addresses an analysis of the vulnerabilities of wireless equipment that provides internet service in the open access zones and the potential risks that could be found when using these means.

  5. Cross-Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Gary A; Zhuang, Jun; Weerasuriya, Sitara

    2017-02-01

    This article uses a game-theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross-milieu terrorist collaboration-the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists' collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision-making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right-wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right- or left-wing extremists. The game-theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. A Pilot Examination of the Methods Used to Counteract Insider Threat Security Risks Associated with the Use of Radioactive Materials in the Research and Clinical Setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsenov, B G; Emery, R J; Whitehead, L W; Gonzalez, J Reingle; Gemeinhardt, G L

    2018-03-01

    While many organizations maintain multiple layers of security control methodologies to prevent outsiders from gaining unauthorized access, persons such as employees or contractors who have been granted legitimate access can represent an "insider threat" risk. Interestingly, some of the most notable radiological events involving the purposeful contamination or exposure of individuals appear to have been perpetrated by insiders. In the academic and medical settings, radiation safety professionals focus their security efforts on (1) ensuring controls are in place to prevent unauthorized access or removal of sources, and (2) increasing security controls for the unescorted accessing of large sources of radioactivity (known as "quantities of concern"). But these controls may not completely address the threat insiders represent when radioactive materials below these quantities are present. The goal of this research project was to characterize the methodologies currently employed to counteract the insider security threat for the misuse or purposeful divergence of radioactive materials used in the academic and medical settings. A web-based survey was used to assess how practicing radiation safety professionals in academic and medical settings anticipate, evaluate, and control insider threat security risks within their institutions. While all respondents indicated that radioactive sources are being used in amounts below quantities of concern, only 6 % consider insider threat security issues as part of the protocol review for the use of general radioactive materials. The results of this survey identify several opportunities for improvement for institutions to address security gaps.

  7. Analysis of Hydrological Sensitivity for Flood Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Kumar Sharma

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In order for the Indian government to maximize Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM, the Brahmaputra River has played an important role in the undertaking of the Pilot Basin Study (PBS due to the Brahmaputra River’s annual regional flooding. The selected Kulsi River—a part of Brahmaputra sub-basin—experienced severe floods in 2007 and 2008. In this study, the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI hydrological model was used to simulate the recent historical flood in order to understand and improve the integrated flood risk management plan. The ultimate objective was to evaluate the sensitivity of hydrologic simulation using different Digital Elevation Model (DEM resources, coupled with DEM smoothing techniques, with a particular focus on the comparison of river discharge and flood inundation extent. As a result, the sensitivity analysis showed that, among the input parameters, the RRI model is highly sensitive to Manning’s roughness coefficient values for flood plains, followed by the source of the DEM, and then soil depth. After optimizing its parameters, the simulated inundation extent showed that the smoothing filter was more influential than its simulated discharge at the outlet. Finally, the calibrated and validated RRI model simulations agreed well with the observed discharge and the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS-detected flood extents.

  8. Threats and climate risks into vulnerable populations. The role of education in the community resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Javier GONZÁLEZ-GAUDIANO

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, challenges in the contemporary world lead to the education to propose its current themes. Environmental education is not an exception. The magnitude and complexity of global environmental problems such as the climate change, the ocean acidification and the loss of the biodiversity have generated issues that had attracted pedagogical attention for decades. This article presents the early results of a study aimed at assessing the perception of risk and vulnerability of communities that frequently are affected by extreme hydrometeorological phenomena. These findings could be a starting point for the design of educational programs aimed at strengthening community resilience. We start from the assumption based on socio-cognitive factors that determine the dispositions in order to the populations can act under similar circumstances, we can find key elements that allow us to infer their reactions to difficult situations. This considering their previous experience and their singularities in the adaptation to climate change, in the social learning in extreme situations and in the identification of their strengths and weaknesses.

  9. Max-Plus Stochastic Control and Risk-Sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, Wendell H.; Kaise, Hidehiro; Sheu, Shuenn-Jyi

    2010-01-01

    In the Maslov idempotent probability calculus, expectations of random variables are defined so as to be linear with respect to max-plus addition and scalar multiplication. This paper considers control problems in which the objective is to minimize the max-plus expectation of some max-plus additive running cost. Such problems arise naturally as limits of some types of risk sensitive stochastic control problems. The value function is a viscosity solution to a quasivariational inequality (QVI) of dynamic programming. Equivalence of this QVI to a nonlinear parabolic PDE with discontinuous Hamiltonian is used to prove a comparison theorem for viscosity sub- and super-solutions. An example from mathematical finance is given, and an application in nonlinear H-infinity control is sketched.

  10. Behavioral control and reward sensitivity in adolescents’ risk taking behavior : A longitudinal TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, W.A.M.

    2017-01-01

    Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this

  11. Behavioral Control and Reward Sensitivity in Adolescents' Risk Taking Behavior : A Longitudinal TRAILS Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, Margot; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, Wilma

    2017-01-01

    Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this

  12. Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowski, Beth; Myers, Jerry; Sibonga, Jean Diane

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including

  13. Sensitivity analysis on parameters and processes affecting vapor intrusion risk

    KAUST Repository

    Picone, Sara

    2012-03-30

    A one-dimensional numerical model was developed and used to identify the key processes controlling vapor intrusion risks by means of a sensitivity analysis. The model simulates the fate of a dissolved volatile organic compound present below the ventilated crawl space of a house. In contrast to the vast majority of previous studies, this model accounts for vertical variation of soil water saturation and includes aerobic biodegradation. The attenuation factor (ratio between concentration in the crawl space and source concentration) and the characteristic time to approach maximum concentrations were calculated and compared for a variety of scenarios. These concepts allow an understanding of controlling mechanisms and aid in the identification of critical parameters to be collected for field situations. The relative distance of the source to the nearest gas-filled pores of the unsaturated zone is the most critical parameter because diffusive contaminant transport is significantly slower in water-filled pores than in gas-filled pores. Therefore, attenuation factors decrease and characteristic times increase with increasing relative distance of the contaminant dissolved source to the nearest gas diffusion front. Aerobic biodegradation may decrease the attenuation factor by up to three orders of magnitude. Moreover, the occurrence of water table oscillations is of importance. Dynamic processes leading to a retreating water table increase the attenuation factor by two orders of magnitude because of the enhanced gas phase diffusion. © 2012 SETAC.

  14. Understanding flood risk sensitivity and uncertainty in a subcatchment of the Thames River (United Kingdom)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theofanidi, Sofia; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Clark, Joanna

    2017-04-01

    Floods are a global threat to social, economic and environmental development and there is a likelihood, that they could occur more frequently in the future due to climatic change. The severity of their impacts, which can last for years, has led to the urgent need for local communities and national authorities to develop flood warning systems for a better flood preparedness and emergency response. The flood warning systems often rely on hydrological forecasting tools to predict the hydrological response of a watershed before or during a flood event. Hydrological models have been substantially upgraded since the first use of hydrographs and the use of simple conceptual models. Hydrodynamic and hydraulic routing enables the spatial and temporal prediction of flow rates (peak discharges) and water levels. Moreover, the hydrodynamic modeling in 2D permits the estimation of the flood inundation area. This can be particularly useful because the flood zones can provide essential information about the flood risk and the flood damage. In this study, we use a hydrodynamic model which can simulate water levels and river flows in open channel conditions. The model can incorporate the effect of several river structures in the flood modeling process, such as the existence of bridges and weirs. The flood routing method is based on the solution of continuity and energy momentum equations. In addition, the floodplain inundation modeling which is based on the solution of shallow water equations along the channel's banks, will be used for the mapping of flood extent. A GIS interface will serve as a database, including high resolution topography, vector layers of river network, gauging stations, land use and land cover, geology and soil information. The flood frequency analysis, together with historical records on flood warnings, will enable the understanding on the flow regimes and the selection of particular flood events for modeling. One dimensional and two dimensional simulations

  15. Context-sensitive Information security Risk identification and evaluation techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, Dan

    2014-01-01

    The objective of my research is to improve and support the process of Information security Risk Assessment by designing a scalable Risk argumentation framework for socio-digital-technical Risk. Due to the various types of IT systems, diversity of architectures and dynamic nature of Risk, there is no

  16. Comparison of risk sensitivity to human errors in the Oconee and LaSalle PRAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, S.; Higgins, J.

    1991-01-01

    This paper describes the comparative analyses of plant risk sensitivity to human errors in the Oconee and La Salle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRAs). These analyses were performed to determine the reasons for the observed differences in the sensitivity of core melt frequency (CMF) to changes in human error probabilities (HEPs). Plant-specific design features, PRA methods, and the level of detail and assumptions in the human error modeling were evaluated to assess their influence risk estimates and sensitivities

  17. The Development of Detailed Threats Model Applicable for Information Risk Assessment of Enterprise Information System Virtualization Claster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Vladimirovna Mashkina

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This research on the development of the model object protection - virtual segment industrial enterprises and the development of threat models, with particular attention paid to assisted virtualization hypervisor type I - full virtualization using the system software, working directly with the hardware.

  18. Perceptions of HIV Seriousness, Risk, and Threat Among Online Samples of HIV-Negative Men Who Have Sex With Men in Seven Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chard, Anna N; Metheny, Nicholas; Stephenson, Rob

    2017-06-20

    Rates of new HIV infections continue to increase worldwide among men who have sex with men (MSM). Despite effective prevention strategies such as condoms and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), low usage of both methods in many parts of the world hinder prevention efforts. An individual's perceptions of the risk of acquiring HIV and the seriousness they afford to seroconversion are important drivers of behavioral risk-taking. Understanding the behavioral factors suppressing the uptake of HIV prevention services is a critical step in informing strategies to improve interventions to combat the ongoing HIV pandemic among MSM. The study aimed to examine cross-national perceptions of HIV/AIDS seriousness, risk, and threat and the association between these perceptions and sociodemographic characteristics, relationships, and high-risk sexual behaviors among MSM. Participants in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Thailand, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States were recruited for a self-administered survey via Facebook (N=1908). Respondents were asked to rate their perceived seriousness from 1 (not at all serious) to 5 (very serious) of contracting HIV, their perceived risk from 1 (no risk) to 10 (very high risk) of contracting HIV based on their current behavior, and their perception of the threat of HIV-measured as their confidence in being able to stay HIV-negative throughout their lifetimes-on a scale from 1 (will not have HIV by the end of his lifetime) to 5 (will have HIV by the end of his lifetime). Covariates included sociodemographic factors, sexual behavior, HIV testing, drug use, and relationship status. Three ordered logistic regression models, one for each outcome variable, were fit for each country. Contracting HIV was perceived as serious (mean=4.1-4.6), but perceptions of HIV risk (mean=2.7-3.8) and threat of HIV (mean=1.7-2.2) were relatively low across countries. Older age was associated with significantly lower perceived seriousness of acquiring

  19. Behavioral approach system sensitivity and risk taking interact to predict left-frontal EEG asymmetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Chelsea L; Goldstein, Kim E; LaBelle, Denise R; Brown, Christopher W; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2014-09-01

    The Behavioral Approach System (BAS) hypersensitivity theory of bipolar disorder (BD; Alloy & Abramson, 2010; Depue & Iacono, 1989) suggests that hyperreactivity in the BAS results in the extreme fluctuations of mood characteristic of BD. In addition to risk conferred by BAS hypersensitivity, cognitive and personality variables may play a role in determining risk. We evaluated relationships among BAS sensitivity, risk taking, and an electrophysiological correlate of approach motivation, relative left-frontal electroencephalography (EEG) asymmetry. BAS sensitivity moderated the relationship between risk taking and EEG asymmetry. More specifically, individuals who were high in BAS sensitivity showed left-frontal EEG asymmetry regardless of their level of risk-taking behavior. However, among individuals who were moderate in BAS sensitivity, risk taking was positively associated with asymmetry. These findings suggest that cognitive and personality correlates of bipolar risk may evidence unique contributions to a neural measure of trait-approach motivation. Clinical implications of these findings are discussed. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. The threats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brunel, S.; Touchard, P.; Ferrandery, J.L.

    2005-01-01

    Second chapter of the book on the geopolitics of the sustainable development, this chapter deals with the threats of the climatic change on the earth and the humans. the authors analyze the consequences of the climatic change on the developing countries of the South and the necessity of a sustainable development implementation in the North. They inform on the resources depletion, the water problem, the nuclear activities and the public health and the french government policy facing the sustainable management of the territory. (A.L.B.)

  1. Risk-sensitive control of stochastic hybrid systems on infinite time horizon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Runolfsson Thordur

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available A risk-sensitive optimal control problem is considered for a hybrid system that consists of continuous time diffusion process that depends on a discrete valued mode variable that is modeled as a Markov chain. Optimality conditions are presented and conditions for the existence of optimal controls are derived. It is shown that the optimal risk-sensitive control problem is equivalent to the upper value of an associated stochastic differential game, and insight into the contributions of the noise input and mode variable to the risk sensitivity of the cost functional is given. Furthermore, it is shown that due to the mode variable risk sensitivity, the equivalence relationship that has been observed between risk-sensitive and H ∞ control in the nonhybrid case does not hold for stochastic hybrid systems.

  2. Using species sensitivity distribution approach to assess the risks of commonly detected agricultural pesticides to Australia's tropical freshwater ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiratne, Asoka; Kroon, Frederieke J

    2016-02-01

    To assess the potential impacts of agricultural pesticides on tropical freshwater ecosystems, the present study developed temperature-specific, freshwater species protection concentrations (i.e., ecotoxicity threshold values) for 8 pesticides commonly detected in Australia's tropical freshwaters. Because relevant toxicity data for native tropical freshwater species to assess the ecological risks were mostly absent, scientifically robust toxicity data obtained at ≥20 °C were used for ecologically relevant taxonomic groups representing primary producers and consumers. Species sensitivity distribution (SSD) curves were subsequently generated for predicted chronic exposure using Burrlioz 2.0 software with mixed chronic and converted acute data relevant to exposure conditions at ≥20 °C. Ecotoxicity threshold values for tropical freshwater ecosystem protection were generated for ametryn, atrazine, diuron, metolachlor, and imidacloprid (all moderate reliability), as well as simazine, hexazinone, and tebuthiuron (all low reliability). Using these SSD curves, the retrospective risk assessments for recently reported pesticide concentrations highlight that the herbicides ametryn, atrazine, and diuron are of major concern for ecological health in Australia's tropical freshwater ecosystems. The insecticide imidacloprid also appears to pose an emerging threat to the most sensitive species in tropical freshwater ecosystems. The exposed temperature-specific approach may be applied to develop water quality guideline values for other environmental contaminants detected in tropical freshwater ecosystems until reliable and relevant toxicity data are generated using representative native species. © 2015 SETAC.

  3. Sensitivity analysis of the Ohio phosphorus risk index

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Phosphorus (P) Index is a widely used tool for assessing the vulnerability of agricultural fields to P loss; yet, few of the P Indices developed in the U.S. have been evaluated for their accuracy. Sensitivity analysis is one approach that can be used prior to calibration and field-scale testing ...

  4. Insulin Sensitivity and Mortality Risk Estimation in Patients with Type ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-07-15

    Jul 15, 2016 ... density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), triglycerides (TG), high‑density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), urinary albumin‑to‑creatinine ratio ... the mortality risk scores in patients with T2DM and its relationship with insulin resistance.

  5. The relative sensitivity of freshwater species to antimony(III): Implications for water quality guidelines and ecological risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obiakor, Maximilian Obinna; Tighe, Matthew; Wang, Zhen; Ezeonyejiaku, Chigozie Damian; Pereg, Lily; Wilson, Susan C

    2017-11-01

    Antimony (Sb) is a pollutant in many jurisdictions, yet its threat to aquatic biota is unclear. Water quality guidelines (WQGs) for Sb are not well established and large uncertainty factors are commonly applied in derivation. We constructed freshwater species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for Sb(III) using available acute toxicity data sourced from temperate and tropical regional studies. A tiered ecological risk assessment (ERA) approach using risk quotients (RQs) was applied for characterisation of risks presented by Sb(III) concentrations measured in the freshwater environment. Multiple parametric models were fitted for each SSD, with the optimal model used to derive the 5% hazardous concentration (HC5), defined as protective of 95% of species, and the corresponding predicted no effect concentration (PNEC). The HC5 values for whole and temperate SSDs were estimated at 781 and 976 μg L -1 Sb(III), respectively, while the PNECs for both datasets were 156 and 195 μg L -1 Sb(III), respectively. Due to limited tropical data, a temperate-to-tropic extrapolation factor of 10 was used to estimate an interim PNEC for tropical regions of 20 μg L -1 Sb(III). Based on published freshwater Sb(III) concentration values across a range of locations, potential ecological risks posed by Sb(III) in some freshwater systems studied would be classified as medium to high risk, but the majority of locations sampled would fall into the low ecological risk category. Our results facilitate the understanding of toxic effects of Sb(III) to freshwater species but also demonstrate that data for Sb ERA are extremely limited.

  6. Diet and the risk of breast cancer in a case-control study: does the threat of disease have an influence on recall bias?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Männistö, S; Pietinen, P; Virtanen, M; Kataja, V; Uusitupa, M

    1999-05-01

    It has been suggested that recall bias may explain the discrepant results between case-control and cohort studies on diet and the risk of breast cancer. Two control groups were used for this case-control study of 25 to 75-year-old breast cancer cases (n = 310). The first group consisted of population controls drawn from the Finnish National Population Register (n = 454). The second group consisted of women who were referred to the same examinations as were the cases because of clinical suspicion of breast disease but who were later diagnosed as healthy (referral controls; n = 506). Because the diagnosis was unknown at the time of interview, it was possible to assess by comparing the two control groups whether the self-reporting of diet changed under the threat of disease. Dietary habits were examined using a validated, self-administered food-frequency questionnaire. Premenopausal women misreported their consumption of liquid milk products, tea, and sugar. Reporting bias was also associated with the intake of fat and vitamins. Postmenopausal women misreported consumption of milk products. When recall bias was taken into consideration, milk was associated with increased risk of premenopausal breast cancer, whereas high consumption of poultry or high intake of monounsaturated fatty acids, n-3 fatty acids, n-6 fatty acids, and vitamin E were related to lower risk. The study suggested that oil, milk, cheese, coffee and beta-carotene may act as protective factors in postmenopausal women, whereas butter and cream may be risk factors for breast cancer. In summary, it is possible that some food items may be overreported or underreported under the threat of disease in health-conscious population. However, most of the results in this study were not modified by recall bias.

  7. Airborne Particulate Threat Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patrick Treado; Oksana Klueva; Jeffrey Beckstead

    2008-12-31

    Aerosol threat detection requires the ability to discern between threat agents and ambient background particulate matter (PM) encountered in the environment. To date, Raman imaging technology has been demonstrated as an effective strategy for the assessment of threat agents in the presence of specific, complex backgrounds. Expanding our understanding of the composition of ambient particulate matter background will improve the overall performance of Raman Chemical Imaging (RCI) detection strategies for the autonomous detection of airborne chemical and biological hazards. Improving RCI detection performance is strategic due to its potential to become a widely exploited detection approach by several U.S. government agencies. To improve the understanding of the ambient PM background with subsequent improvement in Raman threat detection capability, ChemImage undertook the Airborne Particulate Threat Assessment (APTA) Project in 2005-2008 through a collaborative effort with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), under cooperative agreement number DE-FC26-05NT42594. During Phase 1 of the program, a novel PM classification based on molecular composition was developed based on a comprehensive review of the scientific literature. In addition, testing protocols were developed for ambient PM characterization. A signature database was developed based on a variety of microanalytical techniques, including scanning electron microscopy, FT-IR microspectroscopy, optical microscopy, fluorescence and Raman chemical imaging techniques. An automated particle integrated collector and detector (APICD) prototype was developed for automated collection, deposition and detection of biothreat agents in background PM. During Phase 2 of the program, ChemImage continued to refine the understanding of ambient background composition. Additionally, ChemImage enhanced the APICD to provide improved autonomy, sensitivity and specificity. Deliverables included a Final Report detailing our

  8. Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

    2014-11-04

    Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

  9. Stereotype threat and executive functions: which functions mediate different threat-related outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rydell, Robert J; Van Loo, Katie J; Boucher, Kathryn L

    2014-03-01

    Stereotype threat research shows that women's math performance can be reduced by activating gender-based math stereotypes. Models of stereotype threat assert that threat reduces cognitive functioning, thereby accounting for its negative effects. This work provides a more detailed understanding of the cognitive processes through which stereotype threat leads women to underperform at math and to take risks, by examining which basic executive functions (inhibition, shifting, and updating) account for these outcomes. In Experiments 1 and 2, women under threat showed reduced inhibition, reduced updating, and reduced math performance compared with women in a control condition (or men); however, only updating accounted for women's poor math performance under threat. In Experiment 3, only updating accounted for stereotype threat's effect on women's math performance, whereas only inhibition accounted for the effect of threat on risk-taking, suggesting that distinct executive functions can account for different stereotype threat-related outcomes.

  10. Sensitivity, uncertainty, and importance analysis of a risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andsten, R.S.; Vaurio, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper a number of supplementary studies and applications associated with probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) are described, including sensitivity and importance evaluations of failures, errors, systems, and groups of components. The main purpose is to illustrate the usefulness of a PSA for making decisions about safety improvements, training, allowed outage times, and test intervals. A useful measure of uncertainty importance is presented, and it points out areas needing development, such as reactor vessel aging phenomena, for reducing overall uncertainty. A time-dependent core damage frequency is also presented, illustrating the impact of testing scenarios and intervals. Tea methods and applications presented are based on the Level 1 PSA carried out for the internal initiating event of the Loviisa 1 nuclear power station. Steam generator leakages and associated operator actions are major contributors to the current core-damage frequency estimate of 2 x10 -4 /yr. The results are used to improve the plant and procedures and to guide future improvements

  11. Risk-Sensitive Control of Pure Jump Process on Countable Space with Near Monotone Cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suresh Kumar, K.; Pal, Chandan

    2013-01-01

    In this article, we study risk-sensitive control problem with controlled continuous time pure jump process on a countable space as state dynamics. We prove multiplicative dynamic programming principle, elliptic and parabolic Harnack’s inequalities. Using the multiplicative dynamic programing principle and the Harnack’s inequalities, we prove the existence and a characterization of optimal risk-sensitive control under the near monotone condition

  12. Observed Sensitivity during Family Interactions and Cumulative Risk: A Study of Multiple Dyads per Family

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, Dillon T.; Leckie, George; Prime, Heather; Perlman, Michal; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    The present study sought to investigate the family, individual, and dyad-specific contributions to observed cognitive sensitivity during family interactions. Moreover, the influence of cumulative risk on sensitivity at the aforementioned levels of the family was examined. Mothers and 2 children per family were observed interacting in a round robin…

  13. Risk-sensitive optimal feedback control accounts for sensorimotor behavior under uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arne J Nagengast

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Many aspects of human motor behavior can be understood using optimality principles such as optimal feedback control. However, these proposed optimal control models are risk-neutral; that is, they are indifferent to the variability of the movement cost. Here, we propose the use of a risk-sensitive optimal controller that incorporates movement cost variance either as an added cost (risk-averse controller or as an added value (risk-seeking controller to model human motor behavior in the face of uncertainty. We use a sensorimotor task to test the hypothesis that subjects are risk-sensitive. Subjects controlled a virtual ball undergoing Brownian motion towards a target. Subjects were required to minimize an explicit cost, in points, that was a combination of the final positional error of the ball and the integrated control cost. By testing subjects on different levels of Brownian motion noise and relative weighting of the position and control cost, we could distinguish between risk-sensitive and risk-neutral control. We show that subjects change their movement strategy pessimistically in the face of increased uncertainty in accord with the predictions of a risk-averse optimal controller. Our results suggest that risk-sensitivity is a fundamental attribute that needs to be incorporated into optimal feedback control models.

  14. Physiological Plausibility and Boundary Conditions of Theories of Risk Sensitivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marchiori, Davide; Elqayam, Shira

    2012-01-01

    dilatation, which in turn positively correlates with a risk aversion behavior. They hypothesize that participants’ attention is increased in decision problems involving losses, which trigger an innate prudent behavior in situations entailing danger and/or hazard. Interestingly, Y&T find that the nature...... of attention is not selective, i.e., when losses are present, participants are shown to devote more attention to the task as a whole rather than to the single negative outcomes, in contrast to Prospect Theory's loss aversion....... and physiological underpinnings of one of the central topics in judgment and decision-making (JDM) research – choice behavior in decisions from experience. Y&T successfully contributes to this goal by demonstrating a novel effect that losses increase experimental participants’ arousal as measured by pupil...

  15. Behavioral Control and Reward Sensitivity in Adolescents' Risk Taking Behavior: A Longitudinal TRAILS Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeters, Margot; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, Wilma

    2017-01-01

    Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this study we tested whether the imbalance between behavioral control and reward sensitivity underlies risk taking behavior in adolescence, using a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 715 adolescents, of which 66% revealed an increased risk for mental health problems. To assess behavioral control at age 11 we used both self-report (effortful control) as well as behavioral measures of cognitive control (i.e., working memory and response inhibition). Reward sensitivity was assessed with the Bangor Gambling Task. The main finding of this study was that effortful control at age 11 was the best predictor of risk taking behavior (alcohol and cannabis use) at age 16, particularly among adolescents who were more reward sensitive. Risk taking behavior in adolescents might be explained by relatively weak behavioral control functioning combined with high sensitivity for reward.

  16. Enviromentally sensitive patch index of desertification risk applied to the main habitats of Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duro, A.; Piccione, V.; Ragusa, M. A.; Rapicavoli, V.; Veneziano, V.

    2017-07-01

    The authors applied the MEDALUS - Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use - procedure to the most representative sicilian habitat by extension, socio-economic and environmental importance, in order to assess the risk of desertification. Thanks to the ESPI, Environmentally Sensitive Patch Index, in this paper the authors estimate the current and future regional levels of desertification risk.

  17. Advanced digital I ampersand C systems in nuclear power plants: Risk- sensitivities to environmental stressors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, M.; Vesely, W.E.

    1996-01-01

    Microprocessor-based advanced digital systems are being used for upgrading analog instrumentation and control (I ampersand C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States. A concern with using such advanced systems for safety-related applications in NPPs is the limited experience with this equipment in these environments. In this study, we investigate the risk effects of environmental stressors by quantifying the plant's risk-sensitivities to them. The risk- sensitivities are changes in plant risk caused by the stressors, and are quantified by estimating their effects on I ampersand C failure occurrences and the consequent increase in risk in terms of core damage frequency (CDF). We used available data, including military and NPP operating experience, on the effects of environmental stressors on the reliability of digital I ampersand C equipment. The methods developed are applied to determine and compare risk-sensitivities to temperature, humidity, vibration, EMI (electromagnetic interference) from lightning and smoke as stressors in an example plant using a PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). Uncertainties in the estimates of the stressor effects on the equipment's reliability are expressed in terms of ranges for risk-sensitivities. The results show that environmental stressors potentially can cause a significant increase in I ampersand C contributions to the CDF. Further, considerable variations can be expected in some stressor effects, depending on where the equipment is located

  18. Development of a risk-ranking framework to evaluate potential high-threat microorganisms, toxins, and chemicals in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newsome, R; Tran, N; Paoli, G M; Jaykus, L A; Tompkin, B; Miliotis, M; Ruthman, T; Hartnett, E; Busta, F F; Petersen, B; Shank, F; McEntire, J; Hotchkiss, J; Wagner, M; Schaffner, D W

    2009-03-01

    Through a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the Institute of Food Technologists developed a risk-ranking framework prototype to enable comparison of microbiological and chemical hazards in foods and to assist policy makers, risk managers, risk analysts, and others in determining the relative public health impact of specific hazard-food combinations. The prototype is a bottom-up system based on assumptions that incorporate expert opinion/insight with a number of exposure and hazard-related risk criteria variables, which are propagated forward with food intake data to produce risk-ranking determinations. The prototype produces a semi-quantitative comparative assessment of food safety hazards and the impacts of hazard control measures. For a specific hazard-food combination the prototype can produce a single metric: a final risk value expressed as annual pseudo-disability adjusted life years (pDALY). The pDALY is a harmonization of the very different dose-response relationships observed for chemicals and microbes. The prototype was developed on 2 platforms, a web-based user interface and an Analytica(R) model (Lumina Decision Systems, Los Gatos, Calif., U.S.A.). Comprising visual basic language, the web-based platform facilitates data input and allows use concurrently from multiple locations. The Analytica model facilitates visualization of the logic flow, interrelationship of input and output variables, and calculations/algorithms comprising the prototype. A variety of sortable risk-ranking reports and summary information can be generated for hazard-food pairs, showing hazard and dose-response assumptions and data, per capita consumption by population group, and annual p-DALY.

  19. Risk of Zika virus transmission in the Euro-Mediterranean area and the added value of building preparedness to arboviral threats from a One Health perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escadafal, Camille; Gaayeb, Lobna; Riccardo, Flavia; Pérez-Ramírez, Elisa; Picard, Marie; Dente, Maria Grazia; Fernández-Pinero, Jovita; Manuguerra, Jean-Claude; Jiménez-Clavero, Miguel-Ángel; Declich, Silvia; Victoir, Kathleen; Robert, Vincent

    2016-12-03

    In the alarming context of risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission in the Euro-Mediterranean area, there is a need to examine whether capacities to detect, diagnose and notify ZIKV infections in the region are in place and whether ongoing capacity-building initiatives are filling existing gaps.The MediLabSecure network, created in 2014, comprises 55 laboratories of virology and medical entomology and 19 public health institutions in 19 countries in the Balkans, North-Africa, the Middle-East and the Black Sea regions. It aims to set up awareness, risk assessment, monitoring and control of emerging and re-emerging vector-borne viruses. We here examine the actions and strategies that MediLabSecure has been implementing and how they will contribute to the prevention and control of the ZIKV threat in the Euro-Mediterranean area.Capacity-building for arbovirus diagnostics is a major objective of the project and follows a methodological rather than disease-driven approach. This enables the implementation of laboratory trainings on techniques that are common to several arboviruses, including ZIKV, and putting into action appropriate diagnostic tools in the target region.Moreover, by its One Health approach and the interaction of its four sub-networks in human virology, animal virology, medical entomology and public health, MediLabSecure is fostering intersectoral collaboration, expertise and sharing of information. The resulting exchanges (methodological, communication and operational) across disciplines and across countries, dedicated research on intersectoral collaboration and increasing diagnostic capacities are providing new paths and tools to public health professionals to face emerging viral threats such as a ZIKV epidemic in the Euro-Mediterranean region.

  20. Risk of Zika virus transmission in the Euro-Mediterranean area and the added value of building preparedness to arboviral threats from a One Health perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camille Escadafal

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In the alarming context of risk of Zika virus (ZIKV transmission in the Euro-Mediterranean area, there is a need to examine whether capacities to detect, diagnose and notify ZIKV infections in the region are in place and whether ongoing capacity-building initiatives are filling existing gaps. The MediLabSecure network, created in 2014, comprises 55 laboratories of virology and medical entomology and 19 public health institutions in 19 countries in the Balkans, North-Africa, the Middle-East and the Black Sea regions. It aims to set up awareness, risk assessment, monitoring and control of emerging and re-emerging vector-borne viruses. We here examine the actions and strategies that MediLabSecure has been implementing and how they will contribute to the prevention and control of the ZIKV threat in the Euro-Mediterranean area. Capacity-building for arbovirus diagnostics is a major objective of the project and follows a methodological rather than disease-driven approach. This enables the implementation of laboratory trainings on techniques that are common to several arboviruses, including ZIKV, and putting into action appropriate diagnostic tools in the target region. Moreover, by its One Health approach and the interaction of its four sub-networks in human virology, animal virology, medical entomology and public health, MediLabSecure is fostering intersectoral collaboration, expertise and sharing of information. The resulting exchanges (methodological, communication and operational across disciplines and across countries, dedicated research on intersectoral collaboration and increasing diagnostic capacities are providing new paths and tools to public health professionals to face emerging viral threats such as a ZIKV epidemic in the Euro-Mediterranean region.

  1. Towards a framework for teaching about information technology risk in health care: Simulating threats to health data and patient safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth M. Borycki

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the author describes work towards developing an integrative framework for educating health information technology professionals about technology risk. The framework considers multiple sources of risk to health data quality and integrity that can result from the use of health information technology (HIT and can be used to teach health professional students about these risks when using health technologies. This framework encompasses issues and problems that may arise from varied sources, including intentional alterations (e.g. resulting from hacking and security breaches as well as unintentional breaches and corruption of data (e.g. resulting from technical problems, or from technology-induced errors. The framework that is described has several levels: the level of human factors and usability of HIT, the level of monitoring of security and accuracy, the HIT architectural level, the level of operational and physical checks, the level of healthcare quality assurance policies and the data risk management strategies level. Approaches to monitoring and simulation of risk are also discussed, including a discussion of an innovative approach to monitoring potential quality issues. This is followed by a discussion of the application (using computer simulations to educate both students and health information technology professionals about the impact and spread of technology-induced and related types of data errors involving HIT.

  2. Behavioral Approach System Sensitivity and Risk Taking Interact to Predict Left-Frontal EEG Asymmetry

    OpenAIRE

    Black, Chelsea L.; Goldstein, Kim E.; LaBelle, Denise R.; Brown, Christopher W.; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

    2014-01-01

    The Behavioral Approach System (BAS) hypersensitivity theory of bipolar disorder (BD; Alloy & Abramson, 2010; Depue & Iacono, 1989) suggests that hyperreactivity in the BAS results in the extreme fluctuations of mood characteristic of BD. In addition to risk conferred by BAS hypersensitivity, cognitive and personality variables may play a role in determining risk. We evaluated relationships among BAS sensitivity, risk taking, and an electrophysiological correlate of approach motivation, relat...

  3. A Pilot Study on Developing a Standardized and Sensitive School Violence Risk Assessment with Manual Annotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barzman, Drew H; Ni, Yizhao; Griffey, Marcus; Patel, Bianca; Warren, Ashaki; Latessa, Edward; Sorter, Michael

    2017-09-01

    School violence has increased over the past decade and innovative, sensitive, and standardized approaches to assess school violence risk are needed. In our current feasibility study, we initialized a standardized, sensitive, and rapid school violence risk approach with manual annotation. Manual annotation is the process of analyzing a student's transcribed interview to extract relevant information (e.g., key words) to school violence risk levels that are associated with students' behaviors, attitudes, feelings, use of technology (social media and video games), and other activities. In this feasibility study, we first implemented school violence risk assessments to evaluate risk levels by interviewing the student and parent separately at the school or the hospital to complete our novel school safety scales. We completed 25 risk assessments, resulting in 25 transcribed interviews of 12-18 year olds from 15 schools in Ohio and Kentucky. We then analyzed structured professional judgments, language, and patterns associated with school violence risk levels by using manual annotation and statistical methodology. To analyze the student interviews, we initiated the development of an annotation guideline to extract key information that is associated with students' behaviors, attitudes, feelings, use of technology and other activities. Statistical analysis was applied to associate the significant categories with students' risk levels to identify key factors which will help with developing action steps to reduce risk. In a future study, we plan to recruit more subjects in order to fully develop the manual annotation which will result in a more standardized and sensitive approach to school violence assessments.

  4. Rejection Sensitivity, Perceived Power, and HIV Risk in the Relationships of Low-Income Urban Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berenson, Kathy R; Paprocki, Christine; Thomas Fishman, Marget; Bhushan, Devika; El-Bassel, Nabila; Downey, Geraldine

    2015-01-01

    The psychological processes associated with HIV infection in long-term relationships differ from those operative in casual sexual encounters, and relatively little research has considered the aspects of personality applicable in the ongoing heterosexual relationships in which women are at greatest risk. Sensitivity to rejection has been linked with efforts to prevent rejection at a cost to the self and, therefore, may be relevant to the health risks that many women incur in relationships. We examined the association of rejection sensitivity with women's sexual risk behavior in a sample of women at heightened risk for HIV exposure. Women in long-term heterosexual relationships (N = 159) were recruited for study participation in the hospital emergency room serving a low-income neighborhood in New York City, in 2001-2003. Rejection sensitivity and known HIV risk factors were assessed using verbally administered questionnaires. Rejection sensitivity was associated with lower perceived relationship power and, in turn, more frequent unprotected sex with a partner perceived to be at risk for HIV. These results held when controlling for other HIV risk factors including partner violence, economic dependence, and substance use. Understanding the association of rejection concerns with lower perceived personal power in relationships may be important for HIV prevention.

  5. [Impact of Socioeconomic Risk Exposure on Maternal Sensitivity, Stress and Family Functionality].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidor, Anna; Köhler, Hubert; Cierpka, Manfred

    2018-03-01

    Impact of Socioeconomic Risk Exposure on Maternal Sensitivity, Stress and Family Functionality Parental stress exposure can influence the parent-child relationship, child development and child wellbeing in negative ways. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of socio-economic risk exposure on the quality of the mother-child-interaction and family functionality. A sample of 294 mother-infant dyads at psychosocial risk was compared with a lower-risk, middle-class sample of 125 mother-infant-dyads in regard to maternal sensitivity/child's cooperation (CARE-Index), maternal stress (PSI-SF) and family functionality (FB-K). Lower levels of maternal sensitivity/child's cooperation and by trend also of the family functionality were found among the mothers from the at-risk sample in comparison to the low-risk sample. The level of maternal stress was similar in both samples. The results underpin the negative effects of a socio-economic risk exposure on the mother-child relationship. An early, sensitivity-focused family support could be encouraged to counteract the negative effects of early socioeconomic stress.

  6. Risk-sensitivity and the mean-variance trade-off: decision making in sensorimotor control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagengast, Arne J; Braun, Daniel A; Wolpert, Daniel M

    2011-08-07

    Numerous psychophysical studies suggest that the sensorimotor system chooses actions that optimize the average cost associated with a movement. Recently, however, violations of this hypothesis have been reported in line with economic theories of decision-making that not only consider the mean payoff, but are also sensitive to risk, that is the variability of the payoff. Here, we examine the hypothesis that risk-sensitivity in sensorimotor control arises as a mean-variance trade-off in movement costs. We designed a motor task in which participants could choose between a sure motor action that resulted in a fixed amount of effort and a risky motor action that resulted in a variable amount of effort that could be either lower or higher than the fixed effort. By changing the mean effort of the risky action while experimentally fixing its variance, we determined indifference points at which participants chose equiprobably between the sure, fixed amount of effort option and the risky, variable effort option. Depending on whether participants accepted a variable effort with a mean that was higher, lower or equal to the fixed effort, they could be classified as risk-seeking, risk-averse or risk-neutral. Most subjects were risk-sensitive in our task consistent with a mean-variance trade-off in effort, thereby, underlining the importance of risk-sensitivity in computational models of sensorimotor control.

  7. Resistance risk assessment within herbicide authorisation--a call for sensitivity data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulber, Lena; Nordmeyer, Henning; Zwerger, Peter

    2013-02-01

    In most European countries, the risk of herbicide resistance is assessed as part of the authorisation of herbicides in accordance with EPPO Standard PP 1/213(2). Because the susceptibility of weed populations to a certain herbicide may vary greatly, one part of resistance risk assessment is the testing for sensitivity variation among different populations of target weed species with a high resistance risk. This paper emphasises the importance of sensitivity data provision with regard to the recent EU Regulation (EC) 1107/2009 concerning the placing of plant protection products on the market and outlines the main technical requirements for sensitivity data. A useful principle is that sensitivity data should be provided for all herbicides with a high resistance risk regardless of whether resistance has already evolved against the herbicidal substance. Methodical details regarding the generation of sensitivity data are discussed, together with remaining questions that will need to be addressed if a harmonised assessment of herbicide resistance risk is to be achieved. Copyright © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry.

  8. The effects of insulin sensitizers on the cardiovascular risk factors in women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassi, E; Diamanti-Kandarakis, E

    2008-12-01

    Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine disorder in pre-menopausal women characterized by menstrual cycle disturbances, chronic anovulation, and clinical and/or biochemical hyperandrogenism. Although, the primary etiology of PCOS remains unknown, insulin resistance/hyperinsulinemia plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of the syndrome. A growing body of recent data support that women with PCOS have displayed an increased prevelance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors putting potentially at a hight risk for heart disease. Most of these CVD risk factors are etiologically correlated with insulin resistance/hyperinsulinemia, highlighting the role of insulin sensitizers in the therapeutic quiver for the chronic treatment of PCOS. In this review, we discuss the current literature on the CVD risk factors in PCOS and the influence of insulin sensitizers upon these risk factors.

  9. Application of remote sensing data and GIS for landslide risk assessment as an environmental threat to Izmir city (west Turkey).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akgun, Aykut; Kıncal, Cem; Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2012-09-01

    In this study, landslide risk assessment for Izmir city (west Turkey) was carried out, and the environmental effects of landslides on further urban development were evaluated using geographical information systems and remote sensing techniques. For this purpose, two different data groups, namely conditioning and triggering data, were produced. With the help of conditioning data such as lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, distance from roads, distance from faults and distance from drainage lines, a landslide susceptibility model was constructed by using logistic regression modelling approach. The accuracy assessment of the susceptibility map was carried out by the area under curvature (AUC) approach, and a 0.810 AUC value was obtained. This value shows that the map obtained is successful. Due to the fact that the study area is located in an active seismic region, earthquake data were considered as primary triggering factor contributing to landslide occurrence. In addition to this, precipitation data were also taken into account as a secondary triggering factor. Considering the susceptibility data and triggering factors, a landslide hazard index was obtained. Furthermore, using the Aster data, a land-cover map was produced with an overall kappa value of 0.94. From this map, settlement areas were extracted, and these extracted data were assessed as elements at risk in the study area. Next, a vulnerability index was created by using these data. Finally, the hazard index and the vulnerability index were combined, and a landslide risk map for Izmir city was obtained. Based on this final risk map, it was observed that especially south and north parts of the Izmir Bay, where urbanization is dense, are threatened to future landsliding. This result can be used for preliminary land use planning by local governmental authorities.

  10. The Dilemmas of Risk-Sensitive Development on a Small Volcanic Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Wilkinson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the Small Islands Developing State (SIDS of St Vincent and the Grenadines in the Caribbean, the most destructive disasters in terms of human casualties have been the multiple eruptions of La Soufrière volcano situated in the north of St Vincent. Despite this major threat, people continue to live close to the volcano and national development plans do not include risk reduction measures for volcanic hazards. This paper examines the development options in volcanic SIDS and presents a number of conundrums for disaster risk management on the island of St Vincent. Improvements in monitoring of volcanic hazards and ongoing programmes to enhance communications systems and encourage community preparedness planning have increased awareness of the risks associated with volcanic hazards, yet this has not translated into more risk-informed development planning decisions. The current physical development plan in fact promotes investment in infrastructure in settlements located within the zone designated very high-hazard. However, this is not an anomaly or an irrational decision: severe space constraints in SIDS, as well as other historical social and economic factors, limit growth and options for low-risk development. Greater attention needs to be placed on developing measures to reduce risk, particularly from low-intensity hazards like ash, limiting where possible exposure to volcanic hazards and building the resilience of communities living in high-risk areas. This requires planning for both short- and longer-term impacts from renewed activity. Volcanic SIDS face multiple hazards because of their geography and topography, so development plans should identify these interconnected risks and options for their reduction, alongside measures aimed at improving personal preparedness plans so communities can learn to live with risk.

  11. IgE sensitization to inhalant allergens and the risk of airway infection and disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skaaby, Tea; Husemoen, Lise Lotte Nystrup; Thuesen, Betina Heinsbæk

    2017-01-01

    .26, 95% CI: 1.79, 2.86), and other chronic lower airway disease (HR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.58). In never smokers, the higher risk of pneumonia (HR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.23, 2.44) and asthma (HR = 3.17, 95% CI: 2.10, 4.76) among IgE sensitized was more pronounced. CONCLUSIONS: IgE sensitization......-analysed, and expressed as hazard ratios, HRs (95% confidence intervals, CIs). RESULTS: The relative risks for IgE sensitized vs. non-sensitized were: for pneumonia (HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.41), other acute airway infection (HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.60, 1.22), infection (HR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.90, 1.24), asthma (HR = 2...

  12. Risk reporting in the Chinese news media in response to radiation threat from the Fukushima nuclear reactor crisis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wen Wang [Greenlee School of Journalism and Communication, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa (United States)

    2013-07-01

    On March 11, 2011, the northeastern coast of Japan was struck by 9.0-magnitude earthquake that triggered a devastating tsunami. Aside from the huge toll in people's lives and severe damages to property, the tremor sent the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant on a tailspin, causing hydrogen explosions in three reactors, and sending radioactive materials into the air and bodies of water. Declared the largest nuclear disaster since Chernobyl, the crisis threatened neighboring countries, including China (International Business Times, 2011). On March 28, low levels of iodine-131, cesium-137 and strontium, believed to have drifted from Japan, were detected in the air over Heilongjiang province in the northeast part of China and in seawater samples collected in the eastern coastal areas (Qianjiang Eve News, 2011). Because these chemicals can enter the food chain and adversely affect human health (Ifeng.com, 2011), people became understandably anxious and the government had to avert panic. This study asks: How did the Chinese media report the risks attendant to this event? A content analysis of 45 straight news reports published by the Chinese press from March 16, 2011 to April 25, 2011 was conducted. The analysis focused on how the media explained the risk, portrayed potential harm, reported on government actions to safeguard public health, and provided suggestions to reduce public fear. The sources of information cited in the reports were also identified. The articles examined were collected from People.com, a comprehensive online archive of news reports, using 'Fukushima' and 'nuclear radiation' as search terms. The results indicated journalistic practices that left much to be desired in terms of risk reporting. First, the articles explained little about the technical aspects of the radiation leaks and failed to give audiences a general indication of levels of risk. Second, the media over-emphasized the government's position that the

  13. Risk reporting in the Chinese news media in response to radiation threat from the Fukushima nuclear reactor crisis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wen Wang

    2013-01-01

    On March 11, 2011, the northeastern coast of Japan was struck by 9.0-magnitude earthquake that triggered a devastating tsunami. Aside from the huge toll in people's lives and severe damages to property, the tremor sent the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant on a tailspin, causing hydrogen explosions in three reactors, and sending radioactive materials into the air and bodies of water. Declared the largest nuclear disaster since Chernobyl, the crisis threatened neighboring countries, including China (International Business Times, 2011). On March 28, low levels of iodine-131, cesium-137 and strontium, believed to have drifted from Japan, were detected in the air over Heilongjiang province in the northeast part of China and in seawater samples collected in the eastern coastal areas (Qianjiang Eve News, 2011). Because these chemicals can enter the food chain and adversely affect human health (Ifeng.com, 2011), people became understandably anxious and the government had to avert panic. This study asks: How did the Chinese media report the risks attendant to this event? A content analysis of 45 straight news reports published by the Chinese press from March 16, 2011 to April 25, 2011 was conducted. The analysis focused on how the media explained the risk, portrayed potential harm, reported on government actions to safeguard public health, and provided suggestions to reduce public fear. The sources of information cited in the reports were also identified. The articles examined were collected from People.com, a comprehensive online archive of news reports, using 'Fukushima' and 'nuclear radiation' as search terms. The results indicated journalistic practices that left much to be desired in terms of risk reporting. First, the articles explained little about the technical aspects of the radiation leaks and failed to give audiences a general indication of levels of risk. Second, the media over-emphasized the government's position that the

  14. Today's threat and tomorrow's reaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, L.R.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: The events of September 11 have only confirmed our past nightmares and warnings to industries, agencies, and governments. The threat of even more significant catastrophic attacks, using nuclear materials, was just as real ten years ago, as it is today. In many cases, our vulnerability remains the same as years ago. There is a dire need for all organizations to agree upon threats and vulnerabilities, and to implement appropriate protections, for nuclear materials or other 'means' to achieve an event of mass destruction. All appropriate organizations (industries, agencies, and governments) should be able to define, assess, and recognize international threats and vulnerabilities in the same manner. In complimentary fashion, the organizations should be able to implement safeguards against this consistent generic threat. On an international scale the same threats, and most vulnerabilities, pose high risks to all of these organizations and societies. Indeed, in today's world, the vulnerabilities of one nation may clearly pose great risk to another nation. Once threats and vulnerabilities are consistently recognized, we can begin to approach their mitigation in a more 'universal' fashion by the application of internationally recognized and accepted security measures. The path to recognition of these security measures will require agreement on many diverse issues. However, once there is general agreement, we can then proceed to the acquisition of diverse national and international resources with which to implement the security measures 'universally' to eliminate 'weak-links' in the chain of nuclear materials, on a truly international scale. I would like to discuss: developing a internationally acceptable 'generic' statement of threat, vulnerability assessment process, and security measure; proposing this international statement of threat, vulnerability assessment process, and appropriate security measures to organizations (industries, agencies, and governments

  15. Anxiety sensitivity and suicide risk among firefighters: A test of the depression-distress amplification model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Ian H; Smith, Lia J; Boffa, Joseph W; Tran, Jana K; Schmidt, N Brad; Joiner, Thomas E; Vujanovic, Anka A

    2018-04-07

    Firefighters represent an occupational group at increased suicide risk. How suicidality develops among firefighters is poorly understood. The depression-distress amplification model posits that the effects of depression symptoms on suicide risk will be intensified in the context of anxiety sensitivity (AS) cognitive concerns. The current study tested this model among firefighters. Overall, 831 firefighters participated (mean [SD] age = 38.37 y [8.53 y]; 94.5% male; 75.2% White). The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), Anxiety Sensitivity Index-3 (ASI-3), and Suicidal Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised (SBQ-R) were utilized to assess for depression symptoms, AS concerns (cognitive, physical, social), and suicide risk, respectively. Linear regression interaction models were tested. The effects of elevated depression symptoms on increased suicide risk were augmented when AS cognitive concerns were also elevated. Unexpectedly, depression symptoms also interacted with AS social concerns; however, consistent with expectations, depression symptoms did not interact with AS physical concerns in the prediction of suicide risk. In the context of elevated depression symptoms, suicide risk is potentiated among firefighters reporting elevated AS cognitive and AS social concerns. Findings support and extend the depression-distress amplification model of suicide risk within a sample of firefighters. Interventions that successfully impact AS concerns may, in turn, mitigate suicide risk among this at-risk population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Cognitive development in children of adolescent mothers: The impact of socioeconomic risk and maternal sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firk, Christine; Konrad, Kerstin; Herpertz-Dahlmann, Beate; Scharke, Wolfgang; Dahmen, Brigitte

    2018-02-01

    Adolescent motherhood is accompanied by a constellation of risk factors that translate into developmental risk for the off-spring. Socioeconomic risk that is associated with adolescent motherhood as well as maternal interactive behaviors may contribute to the impact of adolescent motherhood on children's developmental outcome. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to investigate differences in children's cognitive development between children of adolescent and adult mothers in their first two years of life and to examine whether socioeconomic risk (e.g. such as educational and financial problems) and/or maternal sensitivity mediate developmental differences between children of adolescent and adult mothers. Adolescent mothers (25 years; N = 34) and their infants were included in the current study. Child cognitive development and maternal sensitivity were assessed at three different time points (T1: mean child age 5.26 months; T2: mean child age 14.69 months; T3: mean child age 21.16 months). Children of adult mothers showed better cognitive performance at T3 compared to children of adolescent mothers but not at T1 and T2. A multiple mediation model including socioeconomic risk and maternal sensitivity as serial mediators demonstrated that the effect of adolescent motherhood on cognitive development was mediated in a causal effect chain with socioeconomic risk negatively affecting maternal sensitivity and maternal sensitivity affecting children's cognitive development. The present findings demonstrate that maternal interactive behaviors are not only a simple predictor of cognitive development but may also act as a mediator of the association between more distal variables such as socioeconomic risk and cognitive development in adolescent mothers. This supports the need to promote prevention and intervention programs for adolescent mothers during the early postpartum period to reduce socioeconomic problems and enhance maternal interactive behaviors. Copyright

  17. Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandrowski, M.S.

    1988-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

  18. Application of Latin hypercube sampling to RADTRAN 4 truck accident risk sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

    1994-01-01

    The sensitivity of calculated dose estimates to various RADTRAN 4 inputs is an available output for incident-free analysis because the defining equations are linear and sensitivity to each variable can be calculated in closed mathematical form. However, the necessary linearity is not characteristic of the equations used in calculation of accident dose risk, making a similar tabulation of sensitivity for RADTRAN 4 accident analysis impossible. Therefore, a study of sensitivity of accident risk results to variation of input parameters was performed using representative routes, isotopic inventories, and packagings. It was determined that, of the approximately two dozen RADTRAN 4 input parameters pertinent to accident analysis, only a subset of five or six has significant influence on typical analyses or is subject to random uncertainties. These five or six variables were selected as candidates for Latin Hypercube Sampling applications. To make the effect of input uncertainties on calculated accident risk more explicit, distributions and limits were determined for two variables which had approximately proportional effects on calculated doses: Pasquill Category probability (PSPROB) and link population density (LPOPD). These distributions and limits were used as input parameters to Sandia's Latin Hypercube Sampling code to generate 50 sets of RADTRAN 4 input parameters used together with point estimates of other necessary inputs to calculate 50 observations of estimated accident dose risk.Tabulations of the RADTRAN 4 accident risk input variables and their influence on output plus illustrative examples of the LHS calculations, for truck transport situations that are typical of past experience, will be presented

  19. Species sensitivity distributions in a context of practical applications for risk-based decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Posthuma, L.; Traas, T.P.; Roelofs, W.; Winterse, A.; Zwart, D. de; Meent, D. van de [RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2003-07-01

    Different biological species clearly show different sensitivities to toxic compounds present in their habitat. The absence of differences in sensitivity would entail an 'all nothing' response, with all species responding similarly to pollution. Given the sensitivity variation, however, some species show adverse effects, and others flourish. In this sense, variation is 'music for ecotoxicologists'. But it also is a nuisance: ecotoxicologists need to handle the vast diversity of sensitivities in Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). This contribution addresses a pragmatic, versatile, statistics-based concept to address species sensitivity differences, and shows options for application. In the 1980s, ecotoxicologists have coined the term 'Species Sensitivity Distributions' (SSDs) for the statistical descriptions that can be applied to address sensitivity variation. An SSD is a Probability Density Function (usually bell-shaped) or Cumulative Distribution Function (sigmoid), that relates the environmental concentration (x) to 'risk' (y). Since their original description and use, the concept was further developed, criticised, and tailored to various policy or assessment problems. (orig.)

  20. How can we use the radioecological sensitivity concept as a tool for risk management?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercat-Rommens, C.; Renaud, P.

    2004-01-01

    The consequences for the man and the environment of the discharges of nuclear facilities depend on the importance and the nature of the discharges, but also on the environment which receives them. Thus, the impact of a pollution, which is expressed in term of toxicity, risk or economic consequences, varies according to the characteristics of the environment and the use of this environment by the man. The radioecological sensitivity can be defined as the response of the environment to a radioactive pollution. For a determined discharge, the higher is the response, the more sensitive is the environment. If all the ecosystems appear sensitive, their sensitivity does not concern the same criteria and it is currently difficult to compare these criteria between them. The idea of the SENSIB project is to create a standardized tool which makes it possible to represent and to compare with the same scale the sensitivity of various ecosystems. The SENSIB project aims to develop both a methodology to calculate sensitivity indexes and a radioecological sensitivity scale usable for risk management. (orig.)

  1. Portfolio Sensitivity Model for Analyzing Credit Risk Caused by Structural and Macroeconomic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new model for portfolio sensitivity analysis. The model is suitable for decision support in financial institutions, specifically for portfolio planning and portfolio management. The basic advantage of the model is the ability to create simulations for credit risk predictions in cases when we virtually change portfolio structure and/or macroeconomic factors. The model takes a holistic approach to portfolio management consolidating all organizational segments in the process such as marketing, retail and risk.

  2. Risk to researchers in qualitative research on sensitive topics: issues and strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickson-Swift, Virginia; James, Erica L; Kippen, Sandra; Liamputtong, Pranee

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, risk assessments in research have been limited to examining the risks to the research participants. Although doing so is appropriate and important, there is growing recognition that undertaking research can pose risks to researchers as well. A grounded theory study involving a range of researchers who had undertaken qualitative health research on a sensitive topic was completed. Analysis of the in-depth, face-to-face unstructured individual interviews with 30 Australian public health researchers provided evidence that researchers do confront a number of physical and emotional risks when undertaking research. Training, preparation, and supervision must be taken into account so that the risk to researchers can be minimized. Researchers need to consider occupational health and safety issues in designing research projects that deal with physical and emotional risks. Recommendations for professional supervision, policy development, and minimum training standards for researchers are provided.

  3. Neural prediction errors reveal a risk-sensitive reinforcement-learning process in the human brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niv, Yael; Edlund, Jeffrey A; Dayan, Peter; O'Doherty, John P

    2012-01-11

    Humans and animals are exquisitely, though idiosyncratically, sensitive to risk or variance in the outcomes of their actions. Economic, psychological, and neural aspects of this are well studied when information about risk is provided explicitly. However, we must normally learn about outcomes from experience, through trial and error. Traditional models of such reinforcement learning focus on learning about the mean reward value of cues and ignore higher order moments such as variance. We used fMRI to test whether the neural correlates of human reinforcement learning are sensitive to experienced risk. Our analysis focused on anatomically delineated regions of a priori interest in the nucleus accumbens, where blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signals have been suggested as correlating with quantities derived from reinforcement learning. We first provide unbiased evidence that the raw BOLD signal in these regions corresponds closely to a reward prediction error. We then derive from this signal the learned values of cues that predict rewards of equal mean but different variance and show that these values are indeed modulated by experienced risk. Moreover, a close neurometric-psychometric coupling exists between the fluctuations of the experience-based evaluations of risky options that we measured neurally and the fluctuations in behavioral risk aversion. This suggests that risk sensitivity is integral to human learning, illuminating economic models of choice, neuroscientific models of affective learning, and the workings of the underlying neural mechanisms.

  4. DOE site-specific threat assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    West, D.J.; Al-Ayat, R.A.; Judd, B.R.

    1985-01-01

    A facility manager faced with the challenges of protecting a nuclear facility against potential threats must consider the likelihood and consequences of such threats, know the capabilities of the facility safeguards and security systems, and make informed decisions about the cost-effectivness of safeguards and security upgrades. To help meet these challenges, the San Francisco Operations Office of the Department of Energy, in conjunction with the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, has developed a site-specific threat assessment approach and a quantitative model to improve the quality and consistency of site-specific threat assessment and resultant security upgrade decisions at sensitive Department of Energy facilities. 5 figs

  5. Influence of interaction of environmental risk factors and sensitization in young asthmatic children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindfors, A; van Hage-Hamsten, M; Rietz, H; Wickman, M; Nordvall, S L

    1999-10-01

    The increasing prevalence of asthma and allergy in many countries demands evaluation of potential risk factors to improve the possibility of prevention. We studied the association between exposure to cat and dog allergen and allergic sensitization in young children with asthma and interactions with potential environmental risk factors. One hundred eighty-nine young children with asthma were evaluated. IgE antibodies to cat and dog were analyzed. Questionnaires were filled in focusing on exposure to cats and dogs, environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), and signs of home dampness as indicated by window pane condensation (WPC) during the first years of life. House dust was analyzed for content of cat (Fel d 1) and dog (Can f 1) allergen. There was a strong association between the degree of reported exposure to cat and dog and the concentration of the respective allergens in floor dust. A dose-response relationship was found between cat exposure, measured as either reported degree of cat exposure or cat allergen levels in dust, and sensitization both to cat and dog. No such relationship was found between exposure and sensitization to dog. WPC increased the risk for sensitization to cat (odds ratio = 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.2-5.8), whereas ETS strongly tended to do so both to cat and dog. Interaction was found between exposure to ETS, WPC, and high levels of cat allergen (>8 microg/g dust). The presence of all 3 risk factors revealed a multiplicative interaction with a high risk of sensitization to cat (odds ratio = 42.0, 95% confidence interval 3.7-472.8). Keeping cats indoors may be a health hazard for infants and young children at risk for development of asthma, particularly when they live in a damp house and their parents smoke.

  6. Occupation, exposure to chemicals, sensitizing agents, and risk of multiple myeloma in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lope, Virginia; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Aragonés, Nuria; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Gustavsson, Per; Plato, Nils; Zock, Jan-Paul; Pollán, Marina

    2008-11-01

    This study sought to identify occupations with high incidence of multiple myeloma and to investigate possible excess risk associated with occupational exposure to chemicals and sensitizing agents in Sweden. A historical cohort of 2,992,166 workers was followed up (1971--1989) through record linkage with the National Cancer and Death Registries. For each job category, age and period standardized incidence ratios and age and period adjusted relative risks of multiple myeloma were calculated using Poisson models. Exposure to chemicals and to sensitizing agents was also assessed using two job-exposure matrices. Men and women were analyzed separately. During follow-up, 3,127 and 1,282 myelomas were diagnosed in men and women, respectively. In men, excess risk was detected among working proprietors, agricultural, horticultural and forestry enterprisers, bakers and pastry cooks, dental technicians, stone cutters/carvers, and prison/reformatory officials. In women, this excess was observed among attendants in psychiatric care, metal workers, bakers and pastry cooks, and paper/paperboard product workers. Workers, particularly bakers and pastry cooks, exposed to high molecular weight sensitizing agents registered an excess risk of over 40% across the sexes. Occasional, although intense, exposure to pesticides was also associated with risk of myeloma in our cohort. Our study supports a possible etiologic role for farming and use of pesticides in myeloma risk. The high incidence found in both female and male bakers and pastry cooks has not been described previously. Further research is required to assess the influence of high molecular weight sensitizing agents on risk of multiple myeloma.

  7. A Risk-Sensitive Portfolio Optimization Problem with Fixed Incomes Securities

    OpenAIRE

    Goel, Mayank; Kumar, K. Suresh

    2007-01-01

    We discuss a class of risk-sensitive portfolio optimization problems. We consider the portfolio optimization model investigated by Nagai in 2003. The model by its nature can include fixed income securities as well in the portfolio. Under fairly general conditions, we prove the existence of optimal portfolio in both finite and infinite horizon problems.

  8. Efficient Estimation of Sensitivities for Counterparty Credit Risk with the Finite Difference Monte Carlo Method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Graaf, C.S.L.; Kandhai, D.; Sloot, P.M.A.

    According to Basel III, financial institutions have to charge a credit valuation adjustment (CVA) to account for a possible counterparty default. Calculating this measure and its sensitivities is one of the biggest challenges in risk management. Here, we introduce an efficient method for the

  9. Efficient estimation of sensitivities for counterparty credit risk with the finite difference Monte Carlo method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.S.L. de Graaf (Kees); B.D. Kandhai; P.M.A. Sloot

    2017-01-01

    htmlabstractAccording to Basel III, financial institutions have to charge a credit valuation adjustment (CVA) to account for a possible counterparty default. Calculating this measure and its sensitivities is one of the biggest challenges in risk management. Here, we introduce an efficient method

  10. Culturally Sensitive Risk Behavior Prevention Programs for African American Adolescents: A Systematic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, Isha; Cooper, Shauna M.; Zarrett, Nicole; Flory, Kate

    2013-01-01

    The current review conducted a systematic assessment of culturally sensitive risk prevention programs for African American adolescents. Prevention programs meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria were evaluated across several domains: (1) theoretical orientation and foundation; (2) methodological rigor; (3) level of cultural integration; (4)…

  11. Delay discounting, risk-taking, and rejection sensitivity among individuals with Internet and Video Gaming Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, Aviv; Abu, Hodaya Ben; Timor, Ayelet; Mama, Yaniv

    2016-12-01

    Background and aims There is a previous evidence for impulsivity in individuals with Internet and Video Gaming Disorders. The aim of this study was to examine whether Internet and video game addictions are associated with experiential delay discounting, risk-taking, and sensitivity to social rejection using computerized tasks and questionnaires. Methods Twenty participants (mean age 24, SD = 1.55) with high score on the Problematic Online Gaming Questionnaire (POGQ) were compared with 20 participants (mean age 24.8, SD = 1.34) with low score on the POGQ. They performed on computerized Balloon Analog Risk Task and Experiential Delay discounting Task (EDT), and filled in the sensitivity to social rejection questionnaire. Results Participants with high POGQ scores had lower measures of delay discounting, higher measures of risk-taking, and higher measures of sensitivity to social rejection compared with participants with low POGQ scores. Discussion The results of this study support the previous evidence of risk-taking and provide new evidence for difficulties in delay discounting and sensitivity to social rejection among those who score high on Internet and video games. Conclusions The results suggest that Internet- and video game-addicted individuals seek immediate gratification and cannot wait for later reward. Furthermore, these individuals spend time in the virtual world, where they feel safe, and avoid social interactions presumably due to fears of social rejection.

  12. A Stochastic Maximum Principle for Risk-Sensitive Mean-Field Type Control

    KAUST Repository

    Djehiche, Boualem; Tembine, Hamidou; Tempone, Raul

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we study mean-field type control problems with risk-sensitive performance functionals. We establish a stochastic maximum principle (SMP) for optimal control of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of mean-field type, in which the drift and the diffusion coefficients as well as the performance functional depend not only on the state and the control but also on the mean of the distribution of the state. Our result extends the risk-sensitive SMP (without mean-field coupling) of Lim and Zhou (2005), derived for feedback (or Markov) type optimal controls, to optimal control problems for non-Markovian dynamics which may be time-inconsistent in the sense that the Bellman optimality principle does not hold. In our approach to the risk-sensitive SMP, the smoothness assumption on the value-function imposed in Lim and Zhou (2005) needs not be satisfied. For a general action space a Peng's type SMP is derived, specifying the necessary conditions for optimality. Two examples are carried out to illustrate the proposed risk-sensitive mean-field type SMP under linear stochastic dynamics with exponential quadratic cost function. Explicit solutions are given for both mean-field free and mean-field models.

  13. Mouse allergen-specific immunoglobulin G4 and risk of mouse skin test sensitivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matsui, E. C.; Diette, G. B.; Krop, E. J. M.; Aalberse, R. C.; Smith, A. L.; Eggleston, P. A.

    2006-01-01

    High serum levels of cat-specific IgG and IgG4 are associated with protection against allergic sensitization to cat, but whether this association applies to other animal allergens remains unclear. To determine if high levels of mouse-specific IgG and IgG4 are associated with a decreased risk of

  14. A Stochastic Maximum Principle for Risk-Sensitive Mean-Field Type Control

    KAUST Repository

    Djehiche, Boualem

    2015-02-24

    In this paper we study mean-field type control problems with risk-sensitive performance functionals. We establish a stochastic maximum principle (SMP) for optimal control of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of mean-field type, in which the drift and the diffusion coefficients as well as the performance functional depend not only on the state and the control but also on the mean of the distribution of the state. Our result extends the risk-sensitive SMP (without mean-field coupling) of Lim and Zhou (2005), derived for feedback (or Markov) type optimal controls, to optimal control problems for non-Markovian dynamics which may be time-inconsistent in the sense that the Bellman optimality principle does not hold. In our approach to the risk-sensitive SMP, the smoothness assumption on the value-function imposed in Lim and Zhou (2005) needs not be satisfied. For a general action space a Peng\\'s type SMP is derived, specifying the necessary conditions for optimality. Two examples are carried out to illustrate the proposed risk-sensitive mean-field type SMP under linear stochastic dynamics with exponential quadratic cost function. Explicit solutions are given for both mean-field free and mean-field models.

  15. The link between hypomania risk and creativity: The role of heightened behavioral activation system (BAS) sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Bin-Na; Kwon, Seok-Man

    2017-06-01

    The relationship between bipolar disorder (BD) and creativity is well-known; however, relatively little is known about its potential mechanism. We investigated whether heightened behavioral activation system (BAS) sensitivity may mediate such relationship. Korean young adults (N=543) completed self-report questionnaires that included the Hypomanic Personality Scale (HPS), the Behavioral Activation System(BAS) Scale, the Everyday Creativity Scale (ECS), the Positive Affect and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS), and the Altman Self-Rating Mania Scale (ASRM). Correlational, hierarchical regression and mediation analyses using bootstrap confidence intervals were conducted. As predicted, BAS sensitivity was associated with self-reported creativity as well as hypomania risk and symptoms. Even when positive affect was controlled, BAS sensitivity predicted incrementally significant variance in explaining creativity. In mediation analysis, BAS sensitivity partially mediated the relation between hypomania risk and creativity. Reliance on self-report measures in assessing creativity and usage of non-clinical sample. BAS sensitivity was related not only to mood pathology but also to creativity. As a basic affective temperament, BAS sensitivity may help explain incompatible sides of adaptation associated with BD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Executive function, approach sensitivity, and emotional decision making as influences on risk behaviors in young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Megan E; Blair, Clancy; Maggs, Jennifer L

    2008-05-01

    Relations among executive function, behavioral approach sensitivity, emotional decision making, and risk behaviors (alcohol use, drug use, and delinquent behavior) were examined in single female college students (N = 72). Hierarchical multiple regressions indicated a significant Approach Sensitivity x Working Memory interaction in which higher levels of alcohol use were associated with the combination of greater approach tendency and better working memory. This Approach Sensitivity x Working Memory interaction was also marginally significant for drug use and delinquency. Poor emotional decision making, as measured by a gambling task, was also associated with higher levels of alcohol use, but only for individuals low in inhibitory control. Findings point to the complexity of relations among aspects of self-regulation and personality and provide much needed data on neuropsychological correlates of risk behaviors in a nonclinical population.

  17. Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Scott M; Suski, Jamie G; Salice, Christopher J

    2010-12-01

    A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk and safety perception on urban and rural roads: Effects of environmental features, driver age and risk sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Jolene A; Beanland, Vanessa; Filtness, Ashleigh J

    2017-10-03

    The ability to detect changing visual information is a vital component of safe driving. In addition to detecting changing visual information, drivers must also interpret its relevance to safety. Environmental changes considered to have high safety relevance will likely demand greater attention and more timely responses than those considered to have lower safety relevance. The aim of this study was to explore factors that are likely to influence perceptions of risk and safety regarding changing visual information in the driving environment. Factors explored were the environment in which the change occurs (i.e., urban vs. rural), the type of object that changes, and the driver's age, experience, and risk sensitivity. Sixty-three licensed drivers aged 18-70 years completed a hazard rating task, which required them to rate the perceived hazardousness of changing specific elements within urban and rural driving environments. Three attributes of potential hazards were systematically manipulated: the environment (urban, rural); the type of object changed (road sign, car, motorcycle, pedestrian, traffic light, animal, tree); and its inherent safety risk (low risk, high risk). Inherent safety risk was manipulated by either varying the object's placement, on/near or away from the road, or altering an infrastructure element that would require a change to driver behavior. Participants also completed two driving-related risk perception tasks, rating their relative crash risk and perceived risk of aberrant driving behaviors. Driver age was not significantly associated with hazard ratings, but individual differences in perceived risk of aberrant driving behaviors predicted hazard ratings, suggesting that general driving-related risk sensitivity plays a strong role in safety perception. In both urban and rural scenes, there were significant associations between hazard ratings and inherent safety risk, with low-risk changes perceived as consistently less hazardous than high-risk

  19. Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

    2018-01-01

    Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Skin sensitization quantitative risk assessment for occupational exposure of hairdressers to hair dye ingredients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goebel, Carsten; Diepgen, Thomas L; Blömeke, Brunhilde; Gaspari, Anthony A; Schnuch, Axel; Fuchs, Anne; Schlotmann, Kordula; Krasteva, Maya; Kimber, Ian

    2018-06-01

    Occupational exposure of hairdressers to hair dyes has been associated with the development of allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) involving the hands. p-Phenylenediamine (PPD) and toluene-2,5-diamine (PTD) have been implicated as important occupational contact allergens. To conduct a quantitative risk assessment for the induction of contact sensitization to hair dyes in hairdressers, available data from hand rinsing studies following typical occupational exposure conditions to PPD, PTD and resorcinol were assessed. By accounting for wet work, uneven exposure and inter-individual variability for professionals, daily hand exposure concentrations were derived. Secondly, daily hand exposure was compared with the sensitization induction potency of the individual hair dye defined as the No Expected Sensitization Induction Levels (NESIL). For PPD and PTD hairdresser hand exposure levels were 2.7 and 5.9 fold below the individual NESIL. In contrast, hand exposure to resorcinol was 50 fold below the NESIL. Correspondingly, the risk assessment for PPD and PTD indicates that contact sensitization may occur, when skin protection and skin care are not rigorously applied. We conclude that awareness of health risks associated with occupational exposure to hair dyes, and of the importance of adequate protective measures, should be emphasized more fully during hairdresser education and training. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. An educationally inspired illustration of two-dimensional Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vásquez, G A; Busschaert, P; Haberbeck, L U; Uyttendaele, M; Geeraerd, A H

    2014-11-03

    Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a structured methodology used to assess the risk involved by ingestion of a pathogen. It applies mathematical models combined with an accurate exploitation of data sets, represented by distributions and - in the case of two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations - their hyperparameters. This research aims to highlight background information, assumptions and truncations of a two-dimensional QMRA and advanced sensitivity analysis. We believe that such a detailed listing is not always clearly presented in actual risk assessment studies, while it is essential to ensure reliable and realistic simulations and interpretations. As a case-study, we are considering the occurrence of listeriosis in smoked fish products in Belgium during the period 2008-2009, using two-dimensional Monte Carlo and two sensitivity analysis methods (Spearman correlation and Sobol sensitivity indices) to estimate the most relevant factors of the final risk estimate. A risk estimate of 0.018% per consumption of contaminated smoked fish by an immunocompromised person was obtained. The final estimate of listeriosis cases (23) is within the actual reported result obtained for the same period and for the same population. Variability on the final risk estimate is determined by the variability regarding (i) consumer refrigerator temperatures, (ii) the reference growth rate of L. monocytogenes, (iii) the minimum growth temperature of L. monocytogenes and (iv) consumer portion size. Variability regarding the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes tends to appear as a determinant of risk variability only when the minimum growth temperature is not included in the sensitivity analysis; when it is included the impact regarding the variability on the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes is disappearing. Uncertainty determinants of the final risk indicated the need of gathering more information on the reference growth rate and the minimum

  2. Exposure amount and timing of solar irradiation during pregnancy and the risk of sensitization in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koh, Hyun Yong; Cho, Eunhae; Lee, So-Yeon; Kim, Woo Kyung; Park, Yong Mean; Kim, Jihyun; Ahn, Kangmo; Lee, Seung Won; Kim, Mi Ae; Hahm, Myung-Il; Chae, Yoomi; Lee, Kee-Jae; Kwon, Ho-Jang; Han, Man Yong

    2018-04-01

    Solar irradiation affects sensitization to aeroallergens and the prevalence of allergic diseases. Little is known, however, about how the time and amount of solar irradiation during pregnancy affects such risks in children. We aimed to find out how solar irradiation during pregnancy affects sensitization to aero-allergens and the prevalence of allergic diseases in children. This population-based cross-sectional study involved 7301 aged 6 years and aged 12 years children. Maternal exposure to solar irradiation during pregnancy was evaluated using data from weather stations closest to each child's birthplace. Monthly average solar irradiation during the second and third trimesters was calculated with rank by quartiles. Risks of allergic sensitization and allergic disease were estimated. Relative to the first (lowest) quartile, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for allergic sensitization in the fourth (highest) quartile was lowest within solar irradiation during pregnancy months 5-6 (aOR = 0.823, 95% CI 0.720-0.942, p solar irradiation (aOR = 1.167, 95% CI 1.022-1.333, p solar irradiation was analyzed as a continuous variable during months 5 (aOR = 0.975, 95% CI 0.962-0.989, p solar irradiation during months 7-8 increased the risk of asthma (aOR = 1.309, 95% CI 1.024-1.674, p = 0.032). Maternal exposure to solar irradiation during the second trimester of pregnancy associated with reduced aeroallergen sensitization, whereas solar irradiation during the third trimester was related to increased sensitization to aeroallergens. Copyright © 2017 Japanese Society of Allergology. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Environmental sensitivity mapping and risk assessment for oil spill along the Chennai Coast in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kankara, R S; Arockiaraj, S; Prabhu, K

    2016-05-15

    Integration of oil spill modeling with coastal resource information could be useful for protecting the coastal environment from oil spills. A scenario-based risk assessment and sensitivity indexing were performed for the Chennai coast by integrating a coastal resource information system and an oil spill trajectory model. The fate analysis of spilled oil showed that 55% of oil out of a total volume of 100m(3) remained in the water column, affecting 800m of the shoreline. The seasonal scenarios show major impact during the southwest (SW) and northeast (NE) monsoons and more fatal effects on marine pelagic organisms during SW monsoon. The Oil Spill Risk Assessment Modeler tool was constructed in a geographic information systems (GIS) platform to analyze the risks, sensitivity mapping, and priority indexing of resources that are likely to be affected by oil spills along the Chennai coast. The results of sensitivity mapping and the risk assessment results can help organizations take measures to combat oil spills in a timely manner. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Patterns of aeroallergen sensitization predicting risk for asthma in preschool children with atopic dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calamelli, Elisabetta; Ricci, Giampaolo; Neri, Iria; Ricci, Lorenza; Rondelli, Roberto; Pession, Andrea; Patrizi, Annalisa

    2015-06-01

    Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic inflammatory skin disorder mostly affecting young children. Although several studies aimed to identify the risk factors for asthma in AD children, many aspects still need to be clarified. The aim of this study was to investigate the possible risk factors for asthma at school age in 99 children with early-onset and IgE-mediated AD. All children performed clinical evaluation and total and specific IgE assay for a panel of inhalant and food allergens at two different times (t1 and t2) during preschool, and asthma diagnosis was assessed at one follow-up visit (t3) at school age. At t3, 39% of children had developed asthma. Of the variables compared, the sensitization to more than one class of inhalant allergens at t2 (mean age = 30 months) was associated with asthma, with grass (OR = 3.24, p = 0.020) and cat sensitization (OR = 2.74, p = 0.043) as independent risk factors. The sensitization pattern of a child with early-onset AD, also within the first 2-3 years of life, can reflect his risk to develop asthma. Therefore, testing these children for the more common allergens during this time frame should be recommended to predict the evolution of atopic diseases.

  5. Attention biases to threat and behavioral inhibition in early childhood shape adolescent social withdrawal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Edgar, Koraly; Bar-Haim, Yair; McDermott, Jennifer Martin; Chronis-Tuscano, Andrea; Pine, Daniel S; Fox, Nathan A

    2010-06-01

    Behavioral inhibition (BI) is a temperament characterized in young children by a heightened sensitivity to novelty, social withdrawal, and anxious behaviors. For many children, these social difficulties dissipate over time. For others, patterns of social withdrawal continue into adolescence. Over time, attention biases to threat may influence the stability of BI and its association with social withdrawal, ultimately modulating the risk for anxiety disorders in BI children. However, we know relatively little about the cognitive processes that accompany BI and shape later socio-emotional functioning. We examined the relations among BI in childhood, attention biases to threat in adolescence, and adolescent social withdrawal in a longitudinal study (N = 126, Mean age = 15 years). As has been reported in anxious adults, adolescents who were behaviorally inhibited as toddlers and young children showed heightened attention bias to threat. In addition, attention bias to threat moderated the relation between childhood BI and adolescent social withdrawal.

  6. Initial threat assessment. Radiological risks associated with SevRAO facilities falling within the regulatory supervision responsibilities of FMBA[Russian Federation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ilin, Leonid; Kochetkov, Oleg; Simakov, Anatoly; Shandala, Natalya; Savkin, Mikhail; Sneve, Malgorzata K.; Boerretzen, Peer; Jaworska, Alicja; Smith, Graham; Barraclough, Ian; Kruse, Phil

    2005-07-01

    The purpose of this initial threat assessment is to obtain a view, from the regulatory perspective of FMBA, of the most important issues which require supervision and regulatory development, regarding work which has to be carried out at the Andreeva Bay and Grcmikha. The main radiological threats have been identified and actions to reduce the threats have been proposed. Situations where regulations and procedures for workers on-site need to be developed have been identified. This will be a basis for further development of Russian regulation and procedures. (Author)

  7. Identification of seismically risk-sensitive systems and components in nuclear power plants: feasibility study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.; Boccio, J.; Farahzad, P.

    1983-06-01

    An approach for the identification of risk-sensitive components in a nuclear power plant during and after a seismic event is described. Application of the methodology to two hypothetical power plants - a Boiling Water Reactor and a Pressurized Water Reactor - are presented and the results are given in tabular and graphical form. Conclusions drawn and lessons learned through the course of this study, based on the relative importance of various accident scenarios and sensitivity analyses, are discussed. In addition, the areas that may need further investigation are identified

  8. Niacin Skin Sensitivity Is Increased in Adolescents at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor E Berger

    Full Text Available Most studies provide evidence that the skin flush response to nicotinic acid (niacin stimulation is impaired in schizophrenia. However, only little is known about niacin sensitivity in the ultra-high risk (UHR phase of psychotic disorders.We compared visual ratings of niacin sensitivity between adolescents at UHR for psychosis according to the one year transition outcome (UHR-T n = 11; UHR-NT n = 55 with healthy controls (HC n = 25 and first episode schizophrenia patients (FEP n = 25 treated with atypical antipsychotics.Contrary to our hypothesis niacin sensitivity of the entire UHR group was not attenuated, but significantly increased compared to the HC group, whereas no difference could be found between the UHR-T and UHR-NT groups. As expected, niacin sensitivity of FEP was attenuated compared to HC group. In UHR individuals niacin sensitivity was inversely correlated with omega-6 and -9 fatty acids (FA, but positively correlated with phospholipase A2 (inPLA2 activity, a marker of membrane lipid repair/remodelling.Increased niacin sensitivity in UHR states likely indicates an impaired balance of eicosanoids and omega-6/-9 FA at a membrane level. Our findings suggest that the emergence of psychosis is associated with an increased mobilisation of eicosanoids prior to the transition to psychosis possibly reflecting a "pro-inflammatory state", whereas thereafter eicosanoid mobilisation seems to be attenuated. Potential treatment implications for the UHR state should be further investigated.

  9. Operational Choices for Risk Aggregation in Insurance: PSDization and SCR Sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Milhaud

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This work addresses crucial questions about the robustness of the PSDization process for applications in insurance. PSDization refers to the process that forces a matrix to become positive semidefinite. For companies using copulas to aggregate risks in their internal model, PSDization occurs when working with correlation matrices to compute the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR. We examine how classical operational choices concerning the modelling of risk dependence impacts the SCR during PSDization. These operations refer to the permutations of risks (or business lines in the correlation matrix, the addition of a new risk, and the introduction of confidence weights given to the correlation coefficients. The use of genetic algorithms shows that theoretically neutral transformations of the correlation matrix can surprisingly lead to significant sensitivities of the SCR (up to 6%. This highlights the need for a very strong internal control around the PSDization step.

  10. Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management for Finance: Application of Real Options Method for Disaster Risk Sensitive Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KUSDHIANTO SETIAWAN

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the application of real options analysis for a project that is in the process of construction and was affected by a natural disaster. The use of the analytical method has become a way of thinking in making decisions that should be taught to business school students. The case in this paper is based on an MBA thesis at the University of Gadjah Mada that was intended as a showcase for application of real options to address real business problems. It shows one of the strategies in mainstreaming disaster risk management in the business school that also answers the needs of businesses in the disaster-prone country.

  11. Is there a risk of sensitization and allergy to chlorhexidine in health care workers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garvey, L H; Roed-Petersen, J; Husum, B

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In Denmark, chlorhexidine is the standard disinfectant in most hospitals and health care workers are repeatedly exposed to it. The aim of this study was to establish whether there is a risk of sensitization and allergy to chlorhexidine from this type of exposure. METHODS: Two hundred...... to examine the risk of type I and type IV allergy to chlorhexidine in health care workers with daily exposure to chlorhexidine, we did not identify allergies to chlorhexidine in any of the 104 individuals tested or in the additional 74 individuals who completed the questionnaire. We conclude that an allergy...... to chlorhexidine in health care workers is likely to be rare....

  12. Risk-Sensitive and Mean Variance Optimality in Markov Decision Processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 3 (2013), s. 146-161 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/0956; GA ČR GAP402/11/0150 Grant - others:AVČR a CONACyT(CZ) 171396 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Discrete-time Markov decision chains * exponential utility functions * certainty equivalent * mean-variance optimality * connections between risk -sensitive and risk -neutral models Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/sladky-0399099.pdf

  13. Overview of methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is playing an increasingly important role in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The assessment of uncertainties associated with PRA results is widely recognized as an important part of the analysis process. One of the major criticisms of the Reactor Safety Study was that its representation of uncertainty was inadequate. The desire for the capability to treat uncertainties with the MELCOR risk code being developed at Sandia National Laboratories is indicative of the current interest in this topic. However, as yet, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in the context of PRA is a relatively immature field. In this paper, available methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a PRA are reviewed. This review first treats methods for use with individual components of a PRA and then considers how these methods could be combined in the performance of a complete PRA. In the context of this paper, the goal of uncertainty analysis is to measure the imprecision in PRA outcomes of interest, and the goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify the major contributors to this imprecision. There are a number of areas that must be considered in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for a PRA: (1) information, (2) systems analysis, (3) thermal-hydraulic phenomena/fission product behavior, (4) health and economic consequences, and (5) display of results. Each of these areas and the synthesis of them into a complete PRA are discussed

  14. Suicide Risk, Stress Sensitivity, and Self-Esteem among Young Adults Reporting Auditory Hallucinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeVylder, Jordan E; Hilimire, Matthew R

    2015-08-01

    Individuals with subthreshold psychotic experiences are at increased risk for suicidal thoughts and behavior, similar to those with schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders. This may be explained by shared risk factors such as heightened stress sensitivity or low self-esteem. Understanding the nature of this relationship could inform suicide prevention in social work practice. In this study, authors examined the relationship between self-reported auditory hallucinations and suicidal thoughts, plans, and attempts, in a nonclinical sample of young adults, controlling for scores on the Psychological Stress Index and Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale. Auditory hallucinations were associated with approximately double the odds of suicidal ideation and plans and four times the odds for suicide attempts. This relationship was not explained by stress sensitivity or self-esteem, which were independently related to hallucinations and suicidality, respectively. Subthreshold auditory hallucinations may be a useful indicator of suicide risk. This association may represent a clinically significant relationship that may be addressed through social work interventions intended to alleviate stress sensitivity or improve self-esteem.

  15. Increased sensitivity to positive social stimuli in monozygotic twins at risk of bipolar vs. unipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kærsgaard, S; Meluken, I; Kessing, L V; Vinberg, M; Miskowiak, K W

    2018-05-01

    Abnormalities in affective cognition are putative endophenotypes for bipolar and unipolar disorders but it is unclear whether some abnormalities are disorder-specific. We therefore investigated affective cognition in monozygotic twins at familial risk of bipolar disorder relative to those at risk of unipolar disorder and to low-risk twins. Seventy monozygotic twins with a co-twin history of bipolar disorder (n = 11), of unipolar disorder (n = 38) or without co-twin history of affective disorder (n = 21) were included. Variables of interest were recognition of and vigilance to emotional faces, emotional reactivity and -regulation in social scenarios and non-affective cognition. Twins at familial risk of bipolar disorder showed increased recognition of low to moderate intensity of happy facial expressions relative to both unipolar disorder high-risk twins and low-risk twins. Bipolar disorder high-risk twins also displayed supraliminal attentional avoidance of happy faces compared with unipolar disorder high-risk twins and greater emotional reactivity in positive and neutral social scenarios and less reactivity in negative social scenarios than low-risk twins. In contrast with our hypothesis, there was no negative bias in unipolar disorder high-risk twins. There were no differences between the groups in demographic characteristics or non-affective cognition. The modest sample size limited the statistical power of the study. Increased sensitivity and reactivity to positive social stimuli may be a neurocognitive endophenotype that is specific for bipolar disorder. If replicated in larger samples, this 'positive endophenotype' could potentially aid future diagnostic differentiation between unipolar and bipolar disorder. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Application of sensitivity analysis in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschberg, S.; Knochenhauer, M.

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies utilise many models, simplifications and assumptions. Also subjective judgement is widely applied due to lack of actual data. This results in significant uncertainties. Three general types of uncertainties have been identified: (1) parameter uncertainties, (2) modelling uncertainties, and (3) completeness uncertainties. The significance of some of the modelling assumptions and simplifications cannot be investigated by assignment and propagation of parameter uncertainties. In such cases the impact of different options may (and should) be studied by performing sensitivity analyses, which concentrate on the most critical elements. This paper describes several items suitable for close examination by means of application of sensitivity analysis, when performing a level 1 PRA. Sensitivity analyses are performed with respect to: (1) boundary conditions (success criteria, credit for non-safety systems, degree of detail in modelling of support functions), (2) operator actions, (3) treatment of common cause failures (CCFs). The items of main interest are continuously identified in the course of performing a PRA study, as well as by scrutinising the final results. The practical aspects of sensitivity analysis are illustrated by several applications from a recent PRA study. The critical importance of modelling assumptions is also demonstrated by implementation of some modelling features from another level 1 PRA into the reference model. It is concluded that sensitivity analysis leads to insights important for analysts, reviewers and decision makers. (author)

  17. Differential housing and novelty response: Protection and risk from locomotor sensitization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Erik J; Haddon, Tara N; Saucier, Donald A; Cain, Mary E

    2017-03-01

    High novelty seeking increases the risk for drug experimentation and locomotor sensitization. Locomotor sensitization to psychostimulants is thought to reflect neurological adaptations that promote the transition to compulsive drug taking. Rats reared in enrichment (EC) show less locomotor sensitization when compared to rats reared in isolation (IC) or standard conditions (SC). The current research study was designed to test if novelty response contributed locomotor sensitization and more importantly, if the different housing environments could change the novelty response to protect against the development of locomotor sensitization in both adolescence and adulthood. Experiment 1: rats were tested for their response to novelty using the inescapable novelty test (IEN) and pseudorandomly assigned to enriched (EC), isolated (IC), or standard (SC) housing conditions for 30days. After housing, they were tested with IEN. Rats were then administered amphetamine (0.5mg/kg) or saline and locomotor activity was measured followed by a sensitization test 14days later. Experiment 2: rats were tested in the IEN test early adulthood and given five administrations of amphetamine (0.3mg/kg) or saline and then either stayed in or switched housing environments for 30days. Rats were then re-tested in the IEN test in late adulthood and administered five more injections of their respective treatments and tested for locomotor sensitization. Results indicate that IC and SC increased the response to novelty. EC housing decreased locomotor response to amphetamine and saline, and SC housing increased the locomotor response to amphetamine. Mediation results indicated that the late adult novelty response fully mediates the locomotor response to amphetamine and saline, while the early adulthood novelty response did not. Differential housing changes novelty and amphetamine locomotor response. Novelty response is altered into adulthood and provides evidence that enrichment can be used to reduce

  18. Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weir, Scott M.; Suski, Jamie G.; Salice, Christopher J.

    2010-01-01

    A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. - Avian receptors are not universally appropriate surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment.

  19. Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weir, Scott M., E-mail: scott.weir@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Department of Environmental Toxicology, Box 41163, Lubbock, TX (United States); Suski, Jamie G., E-mail: jamie.suski@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Department of Biological Sciences, Box 43131, Lubbock, TX (United States); Salice, Christopher J., E-mail: chris.salice@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Department of Environmental Toxicology, Box 41163, Lubbock, TX (United States)

    2010-12-15

    A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. - Avian receptors are not universally appropriate surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment.

  20. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

  1. Longitudinal Changes in Behavioral Approach System Sensitivity and Brain Structures Involved in Reward Processing during Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urosevic, Snezana; Collins, Paul; Muetzel, Ryan; Lim, Kelvin; Luciana, Monica

    2012-01-01

    Adolescence is a period of radical normative changes and increased risk for substance use, mood disorders, and physical injury. Researchers have proposed that increases in reward sensitivity (i.e., sensitivity of the behavioral approach system [BAS]) and/or increases in reactivity to all emotional stimuli (i.e., reward and threat sensitivities)…

  2. Sensitivity of Risk-Based Maintenance Planning of Offshore Wind Turbine Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambühl, Simon; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    Inspection and maintenance expenses cover a considerable part of the cost of energy from offshore wind turbines. Risk-based maintenance planning approaches are a powerful tool to optimize maintenance and inspection actions and decrease the total maintenance expenses. Risk-based planning is based...... on many input parameters, which are in reality often not completely known. This paper will assess the cost impact of this incomplete knowledge based on a case study following risk-based maintenance planning. The sensitivity study focuses on weather forecast uncertainties, incomplete knowledge about...... the needed repair time on the site as well as uncertainties about the operational range of the boat and helicopter used to access the broken wind turbine. The cost saving potential is estimated by running Crude Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, corrective and preventive (scheduled and condition...

  3. The Fee Sensitive Risk Exposures of Project Authorized Person in Hong Kong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sai-On Cheung

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Authorized Persons (AP play a critical role in the design and construction of building works in Hong Kong. Under the Building Ordinance, design and construction of building works need to be coordinated and monitored by an AP registered with the Buildings Department. Professionally qualified Architects, Engineers and Surveyors are eligible to register as AP after completing the prescribed assessment. In addition, the project AP is often appointed by the project owner to be the project team leader. In these capacities, a project AP is exposed to various risks. This paper seeks to identify the fee sensitive risk exposures of project APs. Through an ANOVA study, these risks exposures are those due to liabilities under the Building Ordinance at the construction stage, those towards the third parties and the clients.

  4. Cyber threats to health information systems: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna, Raul; Rhine, Emily; Myhra, Matthew; Sullivan, Ross; Kruse, Clemens Scott

    2016-01-01

    Recent legislation empowering providers to embrace the electronic exchange of health information leaves the healthcare industry increasingly vulnerable to cybercrime. The objective of this systematic review is to identify the biggest threats to healthcare via cybercrime. The rationale behind this systematic review is to provide a framework for future research by identifying themes and trends of cybercrime in the healthcare industry. The authors conducted a systematic search through the CINAHL, Academic Search Complete, PubMed, and ScienceDirect databases to gather literature relative to cyber threats in healthcare. All authors reviewed the articles collected and excluded literature that did not focus on the objective. Researchers selected and examined 19 articles for common themes. The most prevalent cyber-criminal activity in healthcare is identity theft through data breach. Other concepts identified are internal threats, external threats, cyber-squatting, and cyberterrorism. The industry has now come to rely heavily on digital technologies, which increase risks such as denial of service and data breaches. Current healthcare cyber-security systems do not rival the capabilities of cyber criminals. Security of information is a costly resource and therefore many HCOs may hesitate to invest what is required to protect sensitive information.

  5. Cyber threats within civil aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitner, Kerri A.

    Existing security policies in civil aviation do not adequately protect against evolving cyber threats. Cybersecurity has been recognized as a top priority among some aviation industry leaders. Heightened concerns regarding cyber threats and vulnerabilities surround components utilized in compliance with the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Next Generation Air Transportation (NextGen) implementation. Automated Dependent Surveillance-B (ADS-B) and Electronic Flight Bags (EFB) have both been exploited through the research of experienced computer security professionals. Civil aviation is essential to international infrastructure and if its critical assets were compromised, it could pose a great risk to public safety and financial infrastructure. The purpose of this research was to raise awareness of aircraft system vulnerabilities in order to provoke change among current national and international cybersecurity policies, procedures and standards. Although the education of cyber threats is increasing in the aviation industry, there is not enough urgency when creating cybersecurity policies. This project intended to answer the following questions: What are the cyber threats to ADS-B of an aircraft in-flight? What are the cyber threats to EFB? What is the aviation industry's response to the issue of cybersecurity and in-flight safety? ADS-B remains unencrypted while the FAA's mandate to implement this system is rapidly approaching. The cyber threat of both portable and non-portable EFB's have received increased publicity, however, airlines are not responding quick enough (if at all) to create policies for the use of these devices. Collectively, the aviation industry is not being proactive enough to protect its aircraft or airport network systems. That is not to say there are not leaders in cybersecurity advancement. These proactive organizations must set the standard for the future to better protect society and it's most reliable form of transportation.

  6. Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengdong Xu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Bacillary dysentery remains a public health concern in the world. Hunan Province is one of the provinces having the highest risk of bacillary dysentery in China, however, the spatial-temporal distribution, variation of bacillary dysentery and sensitivity to meteorological factors in there are unclear. In this paper, a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM was used to detect space-time variation, and effects of meteorological factors between 2010 and 2015. The risk of bacillary dysentery showed apparent spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The highest risk occurred in the summer season. Economically undeveloped mountainous areas in the west and south of the province had the highest incidence rates. Twenty three (18.9% and 20 (16.4% counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Among the hotspots, 11 counties (47.8% exhibited a rapidly decreasing trend, suggesting they may become low-risk areas in the future. Of the cold spot counties, six (30% showed a slowly decreasing trend, and may have a higher risk in the future. Among meteorological factors, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed all played a significant role in the spatial-temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery risk. These findings can contribute to the implementation of an early warning system for controlling and preventing bacillary dysentery.

  7. Sensitization to Aspergillus fumigatus as a risk factor for bronchiectasis in COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Everaerts S

    2017-08-01

    levels were comparable (P=0.2057. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that sensitization to recombinant f1 or f3 had a 2.8-fold increased risk for bronchiectasis (P=0.0030.Conclusion: These results highlight a potential role for sensitization to A fum in COPD-related bronchiectasis. Keywords: Aspergillus fumigatus hypersensitivity, recombinant antigens, ABPA, vitamin D 

  8. Forecasting Lightning Threat Using WRF Proxy Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaul, E. W., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: Given that high-resolution WRF forecasts can capture the character of convective outbreaks, we seek to: 1. Create WRF forecasts of LTG threat (1-24 h), based on 2 proxy fields from explicitly simulated convection: - graupel flux near -15 C (captures LTG time variability) - vertically integrated ice (captures LTG threat area). 2. Calibrate each threat to yield accurate quantitative peak flash rate densities. 3. Also evaluate threats for areal coverage, time variability. 4. Blend threats to optimize results. 5. Examine sensitivity to model mesh, microphysics. Methods: 1. Use high-resolution 2-km WRF simulations to prognose convection for a diverse series of selected case studies. 2. Evaluate graupel fluxes; vertically integrated ice (VII). 3. Calibrate WRF LTG proxies using peak total LTG flash rate densities from NALMA; relationships look linear, with regression line passing through origin. 4. Truncate low threat values to make threat areal coverage match NALMA flash extent density obs. 5. Blend proxies to achieve optimal performance 6. Study CAPS 4-km ensembles to evaluate sensitivities.

  9. Decrypting Information Sensitivity: Risk, Privacy, and Data Protection Law in the United States and the European Union

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazlioglu, Muge

    2017-01-01

    This dissertation examines the risk-based approach to privacy and data protection and the role of information sensitivity within risk management. Determining what information carries the greatest risk is a multi-layered challenge that involves balancing the rights and interests of multiple actors, including data controllers, data processors, and…

  10. Insiders and Insider Threats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hunker, Jeffrey; Probst, Christian W.

    2011-01-01

    Threats from the inside of an organization’s perimeters are a significant problem, since it is difficult to distinguish them from benign activity. In this overview article we discuss defining properties of insiders and insider threats. After presenting definitions of these terms, we go on to disc......Threats from the inside of an organization’s perimeters are a significant problem, since it is difficult to distinguish them from benign activity. In this overview article we discuss defining properties of insiders and insider threats. After presenting definitions of these terms, we go...

  11. Sensitivity of risk parameters to human errors in reactor safety study for a PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Hall, R.E.; Swoboda, A.L.

    1981-01-01

    Sensitivities of the risk parameters, emergency safety system unavailabilities, accident sequence probabilities, release category probabilities and core melt probability were investigated for changes in the human error rates within the general methodological framework of the Reactor Safety Study (RSS) for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Impact of individual human errors were assessed both in terms of their structural importance to core melt and reliability importance on core melt probability. The Human Error Sensitivity Assessment of a PWR (HESAP) computer code was written for the purpose of this study. The code employed point estimate approach and ignored the smoothing technique applied in RSS. It computed the point estimates for the system unavailabilities from the median values of the component failure rates and proceeded in terms of point values to obtain the point estimates for the accident sequence probabilities, core melt probability, and release category probabilities. The sensitivity measure used was the ratio of the top event probability before and after the perturbation of the constituent events. Core melt probability per reactor year showed significant increase with the increase in the human error rates, but did not show similar decrease with the decrease in the human error rates due to the dominance of the hardware failures. When the Minimum Human Error Rate (M.H.E.R.) used is increased to 10 -3 , the base case human error rates start sensitivity to human errors. This effort now allows the evaluation of new error rate data along with proposed changes in the man machine interface

  12. Risk factors for developing tooth sensitivity and gingival irritation associated with nightguard vital bleaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, R H; Haywood, V B; Phillips, C

    1997-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine risk factors in the development of tooth sensitivity and gingival irritation associated with the nightguard vital bleaching technique. The potential risk factors evaluated (sex, age, reported allergy, whitening solution, number of times the solution was changed daily [its usage pattern], and dental arch) were collected from the daily log form turned in by each of the 64 participants after completion of the 6-week lightening process. Also evaluated for each participant, from color slides, were tooth characteristics such as gingival recession, defective restorations, abfraction lesions, enamel-cementum abrasion, etc, and reported side effects. The generalized Mantel-Haenszel statistic was used to assess the association between the potential risk factors and the development of tooth sensitivity and/or gingival irritation. No statistical relationship existed between age, sex, allergy, tooth characteristics, or the dental arch lightened and the development of side effects. Initially, a statistically significant association existed between side effects and the whitening solution used. However, when the analysis was controlled for usage pattern, this relationship disappeared. Patients who changed the whitening solution more than once a day reported statistically significantly more side effects than did those who did not change the whitening solution during their usage time.

  13. Ignoring correlation in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment: what is the risk?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groen, E.A., E-mail: Evelyne.Groen@gmail.com [Wageningen University, P.O. Box 338, Wageningen 6700 AH (Netherlands); Heijungs, R. [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, Amsterdam 1081 HV (Netherlands); Leiden University, Einsteinweg 2, Leiden 2333 CC (Netherlands)

    2017-01-15

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an established tool to quantify the environmental impact of a product. A good assessment of uncertainty is important for making well-informed decisions in comparative LCA, as well as for correctly prioritising data collection efforts. Under- or overestimation of output uncertainty (e.g. output variance) will lead to incorrect decisions in such matters. The presence of correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation, can increase or decrease the the output variance. However, most LCA studies that include uncertainty analysis, ignore correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation, which may lead to incorrect conclusions. Two approaches to include correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis were studied: an analytical approach and a sampling approach. The use of both approaches is illustrated for an artificial case study of electricity production. Results demonstrate that both approaches yield approximately the same output variance and sensitivity indices for this specific case study. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the analytical approach can be used to quantify the risk of ignoring correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation in LCA. We demonstrate that: (1) we can predict if including correlations among input parameters in uncertainty propagation will increase or decrease output variance; (2) we can quantify the risk of ignoring correlations on the output variance and the global sensitivity indices. Moreover, this procedure requires only little data. - Highlights: • Ignoring correlation leads to under- or overestimation of the output variance. • We demonstrated that the risk of ignoring correlation can be quantified. • The procedure proposed is generally applicable in life cycle assessment. • In some cases, ignoring correlation has a minimal effect on decision-making tools.

  14. Spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity: toward an ideal index of cardiovascular risk in hypertension?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lantelme, Pierre; Khettab, Fouad; Custaud, Marc-Antoine; Rial, Marie-Odile; Joanny, Christiane; Gharib, Claude; Milon, Hugues

    2002-05-01

    Estimating the risk entailed by classical risk factors like blood pressure (BP) or serum cholesterol may be difficult because of their variability and the often unknown duration of exposure. Having variables integrating the impact of those classical risk factors on the cardiovascular system would probably aid the prediction of cardiovascular events. The present study aimed at determining whether cardiac baroreflex sensitivity (BRS), correlates with several risk factors and thus is a good candidate for being such an integrative variable. As a comparison, left ventricular mass (LVM), pulse wave velocity (PWV), and creatinine were also tested for association with risk factors. A total of 302 subjects referred for hypertension, were considered. They had a 24-h BP recording and a determination of BRS by two different methods (sequence and alpha coefficient), in two different positions (lying and standing). They were also tested for the presence of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) (by echocardiography and electrocardiogram) and had a PWV measurement. Biological testing included serum lipids, blood glucose, creatinine, proteinuria and urinary excretion of microalbumin. There was a strong correlation between the two methods of BRS measurement in each position (P < 0.001). BRS determined by the sequence method in the lying position was correlated significantly and independently with age, 24-h systolic BP, heart rate, and serum cholesterol with P values < 0.001, < 0.001, < 0.01, and < 0.05, respectively. In an univariate analysis, BRS was also correlated with echocardiographic LVM index (r = -0.21, P < 0.05) and PWV (r = -0.27, P < 0.001), which possibly reflects its dependence on both vascular and cardiac damages. The present study supports the hypothesis that BRS could encompass the impact over time of several risk factors on the cardiovascular system. Thus, it may constitute a valuable parameter in assessing more precisely the risk of cardiovascular events.

  15. Sensitivity of soil phosphorus tests in predicting the potential risk of phosphorus loss from pasture soil

    OpenAIRE

    H. SOINNE; K. SAARIJÄRVI; M. KARPPINEN

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the effects of urine and dung additions on the phosphorus (P) chemistry of pasture land and to compare the sensitivity of two soil extraction methods in assessing the P-loading risk. In a field experiment, urine and dung were added to soil in amounts corresponding to single excrement portions and the soil samples, taken at certain intervals, were analysed for pHH2O, acid ammonium acetate extractable P (PAc) and water extractable total P (TPw), and mo...

  16. Countering Insider Threats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probst, Christian W.; Hunker, Jeffrey; Gollmann, Dieter

    threat, and to develop a common vision of how an insider can be categorized as well as an integrated approach that allows a qualitative reasoning about the threat and the possibilities of attacks. This report gives an overview of the discussions and presentations during the week, as well as the outcome...

  17. Models for Risk Aggregation and Sensitivity Analysis: An Application to Bank Economic Capital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hulusi Inanoglu

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available A challenge in enterprise risk measurement for diversified financial institutions is developing a coherent approach to aggregating different risk types. This has been motivated by rapid financial innovation, developments in supervisory standards (Basel 2 and recent financial turmoil. The main risks faced - market, credit and operational – have distinct distributional properties, and historically have been modeled in differing frameworks. We contribute to the modeling effort by providing tools and insights to practitioners and regulators. First, we extend the scope of the analysis to liquidity and interest rate risk, having Basel Pillar II of Basel implications. Second, we utilize data from major banking institutions’ loss experience from supervisory call reports, which allows us to explore the impact of business mix and inter-risk correlations on total risk. Third, we estimate and compare alternative established frameworks for risk aggregation (including copula models on the same data-sets across banks, comparing absolute total risk measures (Value-at-Risk – VaR and proportional diversification benefits-PDB, goodness-of-fit (GOF of the model as data as well as the variability of the VaR estimate with respect to sampling error in parameter. This benchmarking and sensitivity analysis suggests that practitioners consider implementing a simple non-parametric methodology (empirical copula simulation- ECS in order to quantify integrated risk, in that it is found to be more conservatism and stable than the other models. We observe that ECS produces 20% to 30% higher VaR relative to the standard Gaussian copula simulation (GCS, while the variance-covariance approximation (VCA is much lower. ECS yields the highest PDBs than other methodologies (127% to 243%, while Archimadean Gumbel copula simulation (AGCS is the lowest (10-21%. Across the five largest banks we fail to find the effect of business mix to exert a directionally consistent impact on

  18. Identifying and Mitigating Insider Threats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probst, Christian W.

    2011-01-01

    Organisations face many threats that coarsely can be separated in inside threats and outside threats. Threats from insiders are especially hard to counter since insiders have special knowledge and privileges. Therefore, malicious insider actions are hard to distinguish from benign actions. After ...... discussing new definitions of insiders and insider threats, this article gives an overview of how to mitigate insider threats and discusses conflicting goals when dealing with insider threats....

  19. Predominant Api m 10 sensitization as risk factor for treatment failure in honey bee venom immunotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frick, Marcel; Fischer, Jörg; Helbling, Arthur; Ruëff, Franziska; Wieczorek, Dorothea; Ollert, Markus; Pfützner, Wolfgang; Müller, Sabine; Huss-Marp, Johannes; Dorn, Britta; Biedermann, Tilo; Lidholm, Jonas; Ruecker, Gerta; Bantleon, Frank; Miehe, Michaela; Spillner, Edzard; Jakob, Thilo

    2016-12-01

    Component resolution recently identified distinct sensitization profiles in honey bee venom (HBV) allergy, some of which were dominated by specific IgE to Api m 3 and/or Api m 10, which have been reported to be underrepresented in therapeutic HBV preparations. We performed a retrospective analysis of component-resolved sensitization profiles in HBV-allergic patients and association with treatment outcome. HBV-allergic patients who had undergone controlled honey bee sting challenge after at least 6 months of HBV immunotherapy (n = 115) were included and classified as responder (n = 79) or treatment failure (n = 36) on the basis of absence or presence of systemic allergic reactions upon sting challenge. IgE reactivity to a panel of HBV allergens was analyzed in sera obtained before immunotherapy and before sting challenge. No differences were observed between responders and nonresponders regarding levels of IgE sensitization to Api m 1, Api m 2, Api m 3, and Api m 5. In contrast, Api m 10 specific IgE was moderately but significantly increased in nonresponders. Predominant Api m 10 sensitization (>50% of specific IgE to HBV) was the best discriminator (specificity, 95%; sensitivity, 25%) with an odds ratio of 8.444 (2.127-33.53; P = .0013) for treatment failure. Some but not all therapeutic HBV preparations displayed a lack of Api m 10, whereas Api m 1 and Api m 3 immunoreactivity was comparable to that of crude HBV. In line with this, significant Api m 10 sIgG 4 induction was observed only in those patients who were treated with HBV in which Api m 10 was detectable. Component-resolved sensitization profiles in HBV allergy suggest predominant IgE sensitization to Api m 10 as a risk factor for treatment failure in HBV immunotherapy. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Establishing 'design basis threat' in Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maerli, M.B.; Naadland, E.; Reistad, O.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: INFCIRC 225 (Rev. 4) assumes that a state's physical protection system should be based on the state's evaluation of the threat, and that this should be reflected in the relevant legislation. Other factors should also be considered, including the state's emergency response capabilities and the existing and relevant measures of the state's system of accounting for and control of nuclear material. A design basis threat developed from an evaluation by the state of the threat of unauthorized removal of nuclear material and of sabotage of nuclear material and nuclear facilities is an essential element of a state's system of physical protection. The state should continuously review the threat, and evaluate the implications of any changes in that threat for the required levels and the methods of physical protection. As part of a national design basis threat assessment, this paper evaluates the risk of nuclear or radiological terrorism and sabotage in Norway. Possible scenarios are presented and plausible consequences are discussed with a view to characterize the risks. The need for more stringent regulatory requirements will be discussed, together with the (positive) impact of improved systems and procedures of physical protection on nuclear emergency planning. Special emphasis is placed on discussing the design basis threat for different scenarios in order to systemize regulatory efforts to update the current legislation, requirement for operators' contingency planning, response efforts and the need for emergency exercises. (author)

  1. Indoor risk factors for cough and their relation to wheeze and sensitization in Chilean young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, James F; Rona, Roberto J; Oyarzun, Manuel J; Amigo, Hugo; Bustos, Patricia

    2008-04-01

    We assessed the effects of indoor risk factors, including smoking, on different types of cough and on cough and wheeze in combination. Our sample was composed of 1232 men and women residing in a semirural area of Chile. We used a standardized questionnaire, sensitization to 8 allergens, and bronchial hyperresponsiveness to methacholine to assess cough and wheeze characteristics. Information was gathered on dampness, mold, ventilation, heating, housing quality, smoking, and environmental tobacco smoke exposure. Most exposures were associated with cough alone or cough in combination with wheeze. Smoking, past smoking, and environmental tobacco smoke exposure were strongly associated with dry cough and wheeze. The use of coal for heating was associated with dry cough. Leaks, mold, and lack of kitchen ventilation were associated with cough and wheeze. Nocturnal cough and productive cough were associated with specific types of sensitization, but dry cough was not. Productive cough was associated with hyperresponsiveness to methacholine. Several different types of indoor exposures, including environmental tobacco smoke exposure, are important contributors to morbidity associated with cough and wheeze. A vigorous preventive strategy designed to lower exposures to indoor risk factors would lower rates of respiratory morbidity.

  2. Indoor risk factors for cough and their relation to wheeze and sensitization in Chilean young adults

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potts, J.F.; Rona, R.J.; Oyarzun, M.J.; Amigo, H.; Bustos, P. [Kings College London, London (United Kingdom). Dept. for Public Health Science

    2008-04-15

    We assessed the effects of indoor risk factors, including smoking, on different types of cough and on cough and wheeze in combination. Our sample was composed of 1232 men and women residing in a semi-rural area of Chile. We used a standardized questionnaire, sensitization to 8 allergens, and bronchial hyperresponsiveness to methacholine to assess cough and wheeze characteristics. Information was gathered on dampness, mold, ventilation, heating, housing quality, smoking, and environmental tobacco smoke exposure. Most exposures were associated with cough alone or cough in combination with wheeze. Smoking, past smoking, and environmental tobacco smoke exposure were strongly associated with dry cough and wheeze. The use of coal for heating was associated with dry cough. Leaks, mold, and lack of kitchen ventilation were associated with cough and wheeze. Nocturnal cough and productive cough were associated with specific types of sensitization, but dry cough was not. Productive cough was associated with hyperresponsiveness to methacholine. Several different types of indoor exposures, including environmental tobacco smoke exposure, are important contributors to morbidity associated with cough and wheeze. A vigorous preventive strategy designed to lower exposures to indoor risk factors would lower rates of respiratory morbidity.

  3. Sensitivity of soil phosphorus tests in predicting the potential risk of phosphorus loss from pasture soil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. SOINNE

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to examine the effects of urine and dung additions on the phosphorus (P chemistry of pasture land and to compare the sensitivity of two soil extraction methods in assessing the P-loading risk. In a field experiment, urine and dung were added to soil in amounts corresponding to single excrement portions and the soil samples, taken at certain intervals, were analysed for pHH2O, acid ammonium acetate extractable P (PAc and water extractable total P (TPw, and molybdate reactive P (MRPw. Urine additions immediately increased soil pH and MRPw, but no such response was observed in PAc extraction due to the low pH (4.65 of the extractant enhancing the resorption of P. The PAc responded to the dunginduced increase in soil total P similarly as did Pw, which suggests that both tests can serve to detect areas of high P concentration. However, water extraction was a more sensitive method for estimating short-term changes in P solubility. In pasture soils, the risk of P loss increases as a result of the interaction of urination and high P concentration in the topsoil resulting from continuous dung excretion.;

  4. Indoor Risk Factors for Cough and Their Relation to Wheeze and Sensitization in Chilean Young Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, James F.; Rona, Roberto J.; Oyarzun, Manuel J.; Amigo, Hugo; Bustos, Patricia

    2008-01-01

    Objectives. We assessed the effects of indoor risk factors, including smoking, on different types of cough and on cough and wheeze in combination. Methods. Our sample was composed of 1232 men and women residing in a semirural area of Chile. We used a standardized questionnaire, sensitization to 8 allergens, and bronchial hyperresponsiveness to methacholine to assess cough and wheeze characteristics. Information was gathered on dampness, mold, ventilation, heating, housing quality, smoking, and environmental tobacco smoke exposure. Results. Most exposures were associated with cough alone or cough in combination with wheeze. Smoking, past smoking, and environmental tobacco smoke exposure were strongly associated with dry cough and wheeze. The use of coal for heating was associated with dry cough. Leaks, mold, and lack of kitchen ventilation were associated with cough and wheeze. Nocturnal cough and productive cough were associated with specific types of sensitization, but dry cough was not. Productive cough was associated with hyperresponsiveness to methacholine. Conclusions. Several different types of indoor exposures, including environmental tobacco smoke exposure, are important contributors to morbidity associated with cough and wheeze. A vigorous preventive strategy designed to lower exposures to indoor risk factors would lower rates of respiratory morbidity. PMID:17666696

  5. Sensitivity to chromosomal breakage as risk factor in young adults with oral squamous cell carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braakhuis, Boudewijn J M; Nieuwint, Aggie W M; Oostra, Anneke B; Joenje, Hans; Flach, Géke B; Graveland, A Peggy; Brakenhoff, Ruud H; Leemans, C René

    2016-03-01

    Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) may develop in young adults. In contrast to older patients, the well-known etiological factors, exposure to tobacco and alcohol, play a minor role in the carcinogenesis in this patient group. It has been suggested that an intrinsic susceptibility to environmental genotoxic exposures plays a role in the development of OSCC in these patients. The hypothesis was tested whether young OSCC patients have an increased sensitivity to induced chromosomal damage. Fourteen OSCC patients with an average age of 32 years (range 20-42) were selected. Peripheral blood lymphocytes and skin fibroblasts of patients and 14 healthy controls were subjected to the chromosome breakage test with Mitomycin C. This test is routinely used to identify Fanconi anemia patients, who are well-known for their inherited high sensitivity to this type of DNA damage, but also for the high risk to develop OSCC. Human papilloma virus status of the carcinomas was also determined. None of the 14 young patients with OSCC had an increased response in the MMC-chromosomal breakage test. All tumors tested negative for human papilloma virus. No evidence was obtained for the existence of a constitutional hypersensitivity to DNA chromosomal damage as a potential risk factor for OSCC in young adults. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Latex allergy: new insights to explain different sensitization profiles in different risk groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peixinho, C; Tavares-Ratado, P; Tomás, M R; Taborda-Barata, L; Tomaz, C T

    2008-07-01

    Differences in latex allergen sensitization profiles have been described between children subjected to repetitive surgical interventions and health care workers (HCW). 'Major' allergens for patients with spina bifida are Hev b 1, 3 and 7, while for HCW, 'major' allergens are Hev b 2, 5, 6.01 and 13. The reason for these differential sensitization profiles is currently unknown. To investigate latex allergen profiles on internal and external surfaces of natural rubber latex gloves. Eighty-two samples of commonly used surgical gloves (41 glove brands) were used for analysis. Specific allergen levels of Hev b 1, 3, 5 and 6.02 on both surfaces of the gloves were quantified using an enzyme immunometric assay, a FITkit (FIT Biotech, Tampere, Finland). Differences in allergen levels were observed between internal and external surfaces of all glove types. Concentrations of Hev b 1 and Hev b 3 were significantly higher on external surfaces, while internal surfaces had higher allergen levels of Hev b 5 and Hev b 6.02. Analysis of surgical and examination gloves, powdered and nonpowdered gloves also showed that the content of Hev b 5 and Hev b 6.02 was significantly higher on internal surfaces while that of Hev b 1 and Hev b 3 was higher on external surfaces. Our study showed different allergen profiles on internal and external surfaces of natural rubber latex gloves. These results may suggest a relationship between latex allergen localization and sensitization routes in different risk groups.

  7. Review of seismic probabilistic risk assessment and the use of sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiu, K.K.; Reed, J.W.; McCann, M.W. Jr.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents results of sensitivity reviews performed to address a range of questions which arise in the context of seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). In a seismic PRA, sensitivity evaluations can be divided into three areas: hazard, fragility, and system modeling. As a part of the review of standard boiling water reactor seismic PRA which was performed by General Electric (GE), a reassessment of the plant damage states frequency and a detailed sensitivity analysis were conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The rationale for such an undertaking is that in this case: (1) the standard plant may be sited anywhere in the eastern US (i.e., in regions with safety shutdown earthquake (SSE) values equal to or less than 0.3g peak ground acceleration), (2) it may have equipment whose fragility values could vary over a wide range; and (3) there are variations in system designs outside the original defined scope. Seismic event trees and fault trees were developed to model the different system and plant accident sequences. Hazard curves which represent various sites on the east coast were obtained; alternate structure and equipment fragility data were postulated. Various combinations of hazard and fragility data were analyzed. In addition, system modeling was perturbed to examine the impact upon the final results. Orders of magnitude variation were observed in the plant damage state frequency among the different cases. 7 references, 3 figures, 2 tables

  8. ROLE OF INSULIN SENSITIZERS ON CARDIOVASCULAR RISK FACTORS IN POLYCYSTIC OVARIAN SYNDROME: A META-ANALYSIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thethi, Tina K; Katalenich, Bonnie; Nagireddy, Prathima; Chabbra, Pankdeep; Kuhadiya, Nitesh; Fonseca, Vivian

    2015-06-01

    Polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) is associated with an increase in cardiovascular (CV) risk factors such as insulin resistance, with accompanying hyperinsulinemia and hyperlipidemia, which are predisposing factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus and CV disease. The aim of this meta-analysis is to examine the effect of insulin sensitizers on clinical and biochemical features of PCOS and risk factors for CV disease. A systematic literature review was conducted, and randomized controlled clinical trials were identified by a search of bibliographic databases: Medline database (from 1966 forward), EMBASE (January 1985 forward), and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Reviews of reference lists further identified candidate trials. Data was independently abstracted in duplicate by 2 investigators using a standardized data-collection form. Articles without a comparison group and randomization allocation were excluded. Reviewers worked independently and in duplicate to determine the methodological quality of trials, then collected data on patient characteristics, interventions, and outcomes. Of 455 studies, 44 trials were eligible. A random effects model was used. Significant unadjusted results favoring treatment with insulin sensitizers were obtained for body mass index (BMI) (effect size [ES] of 0.58), waist to hip ratio (WHR) (ES of 0.02), low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (ES of 0.11), fasting insulin (ES of 2.82), fasting glucose (ES of 0.10), free testosterone (ES of 1.88), and androstenedione level (ES of 0.76). Treatment with insulin sensitizers in women with PCOS results in improvement in CV factors such as BMI, WHR, LDL-C, fasting insulin, glucose, free testosterone, and androstenedione.

  9. Space Station Program threat and vulnerability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Meter, Steven D.; Veatch, John D.

    1987-01-01

    An examination has been made of the physical security of the Space Station Program at the Kennedy Space Center in a peacetime environment, in order to furnish facility personnel with threat/vulnerability information. A risk-management approach is used to prioritize threat-target combinations that are characterized in terms of 'insiders' and 'outsiders'. Potential targets were identified and analyzed with a view to their attractiveness to an adversary, as well as to the consequentiality of the resulting damage.

  10. Cyber security: a critical examination of information sharing versus data sensitivity issues for organisations at risk of cyber attack.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallinder, Jason; Drabwell, Peter

    Cyber threats are growing and evolving at an unprecedented rate.Consequently, it is becoming vitally important that organisations share information internally and externally before, during and after incidents they encounter so that lessons can be learned, good practice identified and new cyber resilience capabilities developed. Many organisations are reluctant to share such information for fear of divulging sensitive information or because it may be vague or incomplete. This provides organisations with a complex dilemma: how to share information as openly as possibly about cyber incidents, while protecting their confidentiality and focusing on service recovery from such incidents. This paper explores the dilemma of information sharing versus sensitivity and provides a practical overview of considerations every business continuity plan should address to plan effectively for information sharing in the event of a cyber incident.

  11. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of flood risk management decisions based on stationary and nonstationary model choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rehan Balqis M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Current practice in flood frequency analysis assumes that the stochastic properties of extreme floods follow that of stationary conditions. As human intervention and anthropogenic climate change influences in hydrometeorological variables are becoming evident in some places, there have been suggestions that nonstationary statistics would be better to represent the stochastic properties of the extreme floods. The probabilistic estimation of non-stationary models, however, is surrounded with uncertainty related to scarcity of observations and modelling complexities hence the difficulty to project the future condition. In the face of uncertain future and the subjectivity of model choices, this study attempts to demonstrate the practical implications of applying a nonstationary model and compares it with a stationary model in flood risk assessment. A fully integrated framework to simulate decision makers’ behaviour in flood frequency analysis is thereby developed. The framework is applied to hypothetical flood risk management decisions and the outcomes are compared with those of known underlying future conditions. Uncertainty of the economic performance of the risk-based decisions is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. Sensitivity of the results is also tested by varying the possible magnitude of future changes. The application provides quantitative and qualitative comparative results that satisfy a preliminary analysis of whether the nonstationary model complexity should be applied to improve the economic performance of decisions. Results obtained from the case study shows that the relative differences of competing models for all considered possible future changes are small, suggesting that stationary assumptions are preferred to a shift to nonstationary statistics for practical application of flood risk management. Nevertheless, nonstationary assumption should also be considered during a planning stage in addition to stationary assumption

  12. Stress-induced alterations in estradiol sensitivity increase risk for obesity in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michopoulos, Vasiliki

    2016-11-01

    The prevalence of obesity in the United States continues to rise, increasing individual vulnerability to an array of adverse health outcomes. One factor that has been implicated causally in the increased accumulation of fat and excess food intake is the activity of the limbic-hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (LHPA) axis in the face of relentless stressor exposure. However, translational and clinical research continues to understudy the effects sex and gonadal hormones and LHPA axis dysfunction in the etiology of obesity even though women continue to be at greater risk than men for stress-induced disorders, including depression, emotional feeding and obesity. The current review will emphasize the need for sex-specific evaluation of the relationship between stress exposure and LHPA axis activity on individual risk for obesity by summarizing data generated by animal models currently being leveraged to determine the etiology of stress-induced alterations in feeding behavior and metabolism. There exists a clear lack of translational models that have been used to study female-specific risk. One translational model of psychosocial stress exposure that has proven fruitful in elucidating potential mechanisms by which females are at increased risk for stress-induced adverse health outcomes is that of social subordination in socially housed female macaque monkeys. Data from subordinate female monkeys suggest that increased risk for emotional eating and the development of obesity in females may be due to LHPA axis-induced changes in the behavioral and physiological sensitivity of estradiol. The lack in understanding of the mechanisms underlying these alterations necessitate the need to account for the effects of sex and gonadal hormones in the rationale, design, implementation, analysis and interpretation of results in our studies of stress axis function in obesity. Doing so may lead to the identification of novel therapeutic targets with which to combat stress-induced obesity

  13. Mobbing, threats to employees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjana Vene

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available RQ: Is there a connection among perception of hostile and unethical communication, timely removal of causes and employee satisfaction?Purpose: Perceived mobbing in the organization, analysing causes and timely removal of them without any effect; achieve an environment of satisfied employees. The purpose is to study the relationship amongthe categories: perceiving mobbing, removing the effects, employee satisfaction.Methods: Qualitative research approach, method of interview by using the seven steps principles.Results: The findings clearly state that being aware of the negative factors and psychological abuse in organizations was present. The interview participants perceived different negative behaviours especially by the female population and from the side of superiors. In some organizations perceived negative factors are insults,insinuations, low wages, inadequate working day, competition, lobbying, and verbal threats. All negative factors lead to serious implications for employees, in which the organization can lose its reputation, productivity is reduced, costs of employment can increase with more sick leaves and in extreme cases, the results can be soserious that the organization can end in bankruptcy or liquidation.Organization: The result of the study warns management to acceptcertain actions and remediate the situation in organizations. The employer and managers must do everything to protect their subordinates from violence and potential offenders.Society: The research study warns on the seriousness of mobbing among employees, the aim is to bring the issue to individuals and society. The victim usually needs help (health costs, losses in the pension system, increased unemployment, and lower productivity of the whole society.Originality: In view of the sensitivity of the issues, the author concludes that the existing research studies are based especially on closed questions (questionnaires; however, interviews create mutual trust between

  14. Using a risk assessment approach to handle 'hot spot' remediation in an environmentally-sensitive habitat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BenKinney, M.T.; Guiseppi-Eli, A.; Novick, N.J.; Naro, P.A.

    1993-01-01

    A number of different approaches have been used to address site restoration following an accidental discharge or spill. Removal of all contamination with subsequent site restoration has been a favored approach. The authors' presentation will focus on a case study where a risk assessment approach was used to establish the criteria for is the restoration. Waste oil from a gasoline service station had leaked, over time, into a swale system in an ecologically-sensitive coastal forested habitat. The initial regulatory recommendation was to excavate all soils and restore the area. Their initial investigations revealed that only a limited area was heavily contaminated, predominantly with paraffinic hydrocarbons. They used a risk assessment approach coupled with sediment elutriate testing to demonstrate that leaving the lightly contaminated material in place would not present an environmental hazard from the waste oil, while causing less damage to the swale bed and forested area. Bioassay tests were conducted on sediments collected along the length of the swale from the areas with the highest remaining hydrocarbon concentrations using fathead minnow and Daphnia magna. The bioassay studies confirmed the results of the risk assessment which determined that no environmental toxicity would be expected from allowing lightly contaminated material to remain in-place at this site

  15. A Robust Approach to Risk Assessment Based on Species Sensitivity Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monti, Gianna S; Filzmoser, Peter; Deutsch, Roland C

    2018-05-03

    The guidelines for setting environmental quality standards are increasingly based on probabilistic risk assessment due to a growing general awareness of the need for probabilistic procedures. One of the commonly used tools in probabilistic risk assessment is the species sensitivity distribution (SSD), which represents the proportion of species affected belonging to a biological assemblage as a function of exposure to a specific toxicant. Our focus is on the inverse use of the SSD curve with the aim of estimating the concentration, HCp, of a toxic compound that is hazardous to p% of the biological community under study. Toward this end, we propose the use of robust statistical methods in order to take into account the presence of outliers or apparent skew in the data, which may occur without any ecological basis. A robust approach exploits the full neighborhood of a parametric model, enabling the analyst to account for the typical real-world deviations from ideal models. We examine two classic HCp estimation approaches and consider robust versions of these estimators. In addition, we also use data transformations in conjunction with robust estimation methods in case of heteroscedasticity. Different scenarios using real data sets as well as simulated data are presented in order to illustrate and compare the proposed approaches. These scenarios illustrate that the use of robust estimation methods enhances HCp estimation. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zou Tao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA, this paper proposes a new risk assessment method for an offshore structure design. This method quantifies all the significances among random variables and their parameters at first. And by comparing the degree of importance, all minor factors would be negligible. Then, the global uncertainty analysis work would be simplified. Global uncertainty analysis (GUA is an effective way to study the complexity and randomness of natural events. Since field measured data and statistical results often have inevitable errors and uncertainties which lead to inaccurate prediction and analysis, the risk in the design stage of offshore structures caused by uncertainties in environmental loads, sea level, and marine corrosion must be taken into account. In this paper, the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model (MCEVD is applied to predict the extreme sea state of wave, current, and wind. The maximum structural stress and deformation of a Jacket platform are analyzed and compared with different design standards. The calculation result sufficiently demonstrates the new risk assessment method’s rationality and security.

  17. Threat Assessment: Do Lone Terrorists Differ from Other Lone Offenders?

    OpenAIRE

    Diane M. Zierhoffer

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates the viability of a threat assessment model developed to calculate the risk of targeted violence as a predictor of violence by potential lone terrorists. There is no profile, to date, which would assist in the identification of a lone terrorist prior to an attack. The threat assessment model developed by Borum, Fein, Vossekuil, and Berglund and described in “Threat Assessment: Defining an approach for evaluating risk of targeted violence” (1999) poses ten questions about t...

  18. Toxicological Threats of Plastic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plastics pose both physical (e.g., entanglement, gastrointestinal blockage, reef destruction) and chemical threats (e.g., bioaccumulation of the chemical ingredients of plastic or toxic chemicals sorbed to plastics) to wildlife and the marine ecosystem.

  19. Approaches to assess IgE mediated allergy risks (sensitization and cross-reactivity) from new or modified dietary proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Remington, B.; Broekman, H. C. H.; Blom, W. M.

    2018-01-01

    for new proteins, and especially to identify and characterise the risk of sensitization for IgE mediated allergy from oral exposure. Existing tools and tests are capable of assessing potential crossreactivity. However, there are few possibilities to assess the hazard due to de novo sensitization. The only...... methods available are in vivo models, but many limitations exist to use them for assessing risk. We conclude that there is a need to understand which criteria adequately define allergenicity for risk assessment purposes, and from these criteria develop a more suitable battery of tests to distinguish...

  20. Is there a risk of active sensitization to PPD by patch testing the general population?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Menné, Torkil; Nielsen, Niels Henrik; Linneberg, Allan

    2007-08-01

    Para-phenylenediamine (PPD), a constituent of permanent hair dyes, may cause contact allergy in exposed individuals. It has previously been questioned whether a patch testing with PPD in population-based epidemiological studies is entirely safe. The Glostrup allergy studies patch tested the same cohort twice. In 1990, 567 persons were patch-tested and only one person had a (+) positive reaction to PPD. In 1998, 540 persons were re-invited to a new patch test and 365 (participation rate 68%) were re-tested. There were no positive reactions to PPD. These studies indicate that patch testing with PPD in individuals with no previous positive reactions to PPD or with only one previous positive reaction does not cause active sensitization and can be performed with minimal risk.

  1. Detection of at-risk pregnancy by means of highly sensitive assays for thyroid autoantibodies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stagnaro-Green, A.; Roman, S.H.; Cobin, R.H.; El-Harazy, E.; Alvarez-Marfany, M.; Davies, T.F.

    1990-01-01

    The authors screened 552 women who presented to their obstetrician in the first trimester of pregnancy using highly sensitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for the presence of thyroglobulin and thyroidperoxidase autoantibodies and found an incidence of positivity of 19.6%. The tendency to secrete detectable levels of thyroid autoantibodies was significantly correlated with an increased rate of miscarriage. Thyroid autoantibody-positive women miscarried at a rate of 17%, compared with 8.4% for the autoantibody-negative women. Individual levels of thyroglobulin and thyroidperoxidase autoantibodies were similarly related to this increased miscarriage rate, with no evidence of autoantibody specificity in the relationship. Furthermore, the increase in miscarriages could not be explained by differences in thyroid hormone levels, the presence of cardiolipin autoantibodies, maternal age, gestational age at the time of maternal entry into the study, or previous obstetric history. They conclude that thyroid autoantibodies are an independent marker of at-risk pregnancy

  2. Poland and Global Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleer, Jerzy

    2016-01-01

    This essay seeks to present the specifics of global threats, as well as the reasons for them being universal in nature, and for their persistence. A certain classification of the threats is also engaged in. At the same time, an attempt is made to show the specific threats present - irrespective of their global counterparts - in different regions, and even in different states. The genesis and nature of the latter are demonstrated in a somewhat ad hoc manner by reference to the threats considered to face Poland. If the global threats are truly universal, and arise out of the changes taking place around the world in the last half-century (primarily around the twin phenomena of globalisation and the information revolution), a specific reverse kind of situation applies to decolonisation, plus the collapse of the communist system and the transformation into market economies that apply to formerly communist countries. Equally, some at least of the threats facing Poland may have even a longer history, given that they are very much influenced by past economic and political development, as well as the dominant cultural system.

  3. High – Sensitivity C - reactive protein is associated with Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Indians with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

    OpenAIRE

    Asegaonkar, Shilpa B; Bavikar, Jayashree Suhas; Marathe, Amruta; Tekade, Mangesh; Asegaonkar, Balaji N.; Jayashree, Bardapurkar

    2013-01-01

    Background: India is experiencing twin epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases imposing huge toll on healthcare system. In type 2 diabetes 65-80% deaths occur due to cardiovascular disease whose etiology cannot be explained by chronic hyperglycemia, dyslipedemia and traditional cardiac risk factors. To improve risk stratification serum high-sensitivity C- reactive protein estimation is an adjunct to other risk factors. Study design: O.P.D. based Cross sectional study....

  4. Testing the incentive-sensitization theory with at-risk drinkers: wanting, liking, and alcohol consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostafin, Brian D; Marlatt, G Alan; Troop-Gordon, Wendy

    2010-03-01

    Motivational models of addiction typically propose that alcohol and drugs are desired because of their hedonic effects (i.e., increasing pleasure or reducing distress). In contrast, the incentive-sensitization theory proposes that wanting motivation and liking motivation are separable and that after repeated substance use, motivation shifts from liking to wanting. Using a sample of 85 at-risk drinkers (as defined by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism), in the current study we examined the separability of liking motivation and wanting motivation for alcohol and whether years of drinking experience was associated with an increased role for wanting motivation and a decreased role for liking motivation. Consumption was measured with a free-drinking task. Wanting motivation was assessed immediately before drinking, and liking was assessed immediately after drinking had begun. The results indicated that (a) wanting motivation predicted variance of consumption unique from that accounted for by liking motivation, (b) longer drinking experience was associated with a decreased relation between liking motivation and consumption, and (c) longer drinking experience was not associated with an increased relation between wanting motivation and consumption. The results provide partial support for the incentive-sensitization theory.

  5. Stereotype threat can reduce older adults' memory errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, Sarah J; Mather, Mara

    2013-01-01

    Stereotype threat often incurs the cost of reducing the amount of information that older adults accurately recall. In the current research, we tested whether stereotype threat can also benefit memory. According to the regulatory focus account of stereotype threat, threat induces a prevention focus in which people become concerned with avoiding errors of commission and are sensitive to the presence or absence of losses within their environment. Because of this, we predicted that stereotype threat might reduce older adults' memory errors. Results were consistent with this prediction. Older adults under stereotype threat had lower intrusion rates during free-recall tests (Experiments 1 and 2). They also reduced their false alarms and adopted more conservative response criteria during a recognition test (Experiment 2). Thus, stereotype threat can decrease older adults' false memories, albeit at the cost of fewer veridical memories, as well.

  6. Nuclear terrorism - Threat or not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomper, Miles A.; Tarini, Gabrielle

    2017-11-01

    A terrorist attack using nuclear or radiological materials is a low-probability event, but if executed, would lead to unprecedented socio-economic, material, and psychological disruption and damage. This chapter seeks to provide a sound assessment of the scope and nature of the threat by examining the different types of nuclear terrorism, each of which poses different risks, involves different barriers to success, and requires different terrorist capabilities. In addition, the chapter aims to provide an overview of the sources and nature of terrorists' motivations to employ a nuclear attack.

  7. Sensitive molecular diagnostic assays to mitigate the risks of asymptomatic bacterial diseases of plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our highly concentrated monoculture makes crops vulnerable to pests and diseases. An increase in emerging non-indigenous bacterial diseases pose a real threat to US agriculture. The USA has 100,000 miles of shoreline and 6,000 miles of border, making possible easy introduction of crop pests and di...

  8. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein and risk of sepsis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry E Wang

    Full Text Available Conventional C-reactive protein assays have been used to detect or guide the treatment of acute sepsis. The objective of this study was to determine the association between elevated baseline high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP and the risk of future sepsis events.We studied data from 30,239 community dwelling, black and white individuals, age ≥45 years old enrolled in the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS cohort. Baseline hsCRP and participant characteristics were determined at the start of the study. We identified sepsis events through review of hospital records. Elevated hsCRP was defined as values >3.0 mg/L. Using Cox regression, we determined the association between elevated hsCRP and first sepsis event, adjusting for sociodemographic factors (age, sex, race, region, education, income, health behaviors (tobacco and alcohol use, chronic medical conditions (coronary artery disease, diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, chronic lung disease and statin use.Over the mean observation time of 5.7 years (IQR 4.5-7.1, 974 individuals experienced a sepsis event, and 11,447 (37.9% had elevated baseline hsCRP (>3.0 mg/L. Elevated baseline hsCRP was independently associated with subsequent sepsis (adjusted HR 1.56; 95% CI 1.36-1.79, adjusted for sociodemographics, health behaviors, chronic medical conditions and statin use.Elevated baseline hsCRP was associated with increased risk of future sepsis events. hsCRP may help to identify individuals at increased risk for sepsis.

  9. Linking terrestrial and marine conservation planning and threats analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tallis, Heather; Ferdaña, Zach; Gray, Elizabeth

    2008-02-01

    The existence of the Gulf of Mexico dead zone makes it clear that marine ecosystems can be damaged by terrestrial inputs. Marine and terrestrial conservation planning need to be aligned in an explicit fashion to fully represent threats to marine systems. To integrate conservation planning for terrestrial and marine systems, we used a novel threats assessment that included 5 cross-system threats in a site-prioritization exercise for the Pacific Northwest coast ecoregion (U.S.A.). Cross-system threats are actions or features in one ecological realm that have effects on species in another realm. We considered bulkheads and other forms of shoreline hardening threats to terrestrial systems and roads, logging, agriculture, and urban areas threats to marine systems. We used 2 proxies of freshwater influence on marine environments, validated against a mechanistic model and field observations, to propagate land-based threats into marine sites. We evaluated the influence of cross-system threats on conservation priorities by comparing MARXAN outputs for 3 scenarios that identified terrestrial and marine priorities simultaneously: (1) no threats, (2) single-system threats, and (3) single- and cross-system threats. Including cross-system threats changed the threat landscape dramatically. As a result the best plan that included only single-system threats identified 323 sites (161,500 ha) at risk from cross-system threats. Including these threats changed the location of best sites. By comparing the best and sum solutions of the single- and cross-system scenarios, we identified areas ideal for preservation or restoration through integrated management. Our findings lend quantitative support to the call for explicitly integrated decision making and management action in terrestrial and marine ecosystems.

  10. Longitudinal Changes in Behavioral Approach System Sensitivity and Brain Structures Involved in Reward Processing during Adolescence

    OpenAIRE

    Urošević, Snežana; Collins, Paul; Muetzel, Ryan; Lim, Kelvin; Luciana, Monica

    2012-01-01

    Adolescence is a period of radical normative changes and increased risk for substance use, mood disorders, and physical injury. Researchers have proposed that increases in reward sensitivity, i.e., sensitivity of the behavioral approach system (BAS), and/or increases in reactivity to all emotional stimuli (i.e., reward and threat sensitivities) lead to these phenomena. The present study is the first longitudinal investigation of changes in reward (i.e., BAS) sensitivity in 9 to 23-year-olds a...

  11. Public authority responses to marine stinger public health risks: a scenario analysis of the Irukandji health threat in controlled spaces at public beaches in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley-Cyr, Lynda

    2012-12-01

    This scenario analysis was undertaken to anticipate the likelihood of public authority liability for negligence arising from harm associated with the relatively new phenomenon of the Irukandji marine stinger health threat in Australia. The tort of negligence is about allocating liability for wrongs typically committed by one person or entity against another. The author questions whether a person who enters a marine stinger enclosure at one of Australia's patrolled and flagged beaches and suffers serious injury from an Irukandji sting can seek compensation or damages in negligence against government. It is argued that as the law currently stands, an injured bather without adequate warning could successfully sue a local authority for creating a false perception of safety and therefore inducing risky behaviour. Changes in ecology and climate variability are relevant considerations. This is a novel issue not previously dealt with in Australian courts.

  12. SIP threats detection system

    OpenAIRE

    Vozňák, Miroslav; Řezáč, Filip

    2010-01-01

    The paper deals with detection of threats in IP telephony, the authors developed a penetration testing system that is able to check up the level of protection from security threats in IP telephony. The SIP server is a key komponent of VoIP infrastructure and often becomes the aim of attacks and providers have to ensure the appropriate level of security. We have developed web-based penetration system which is able to check the SIP server if can face to the most common attacks.The d...

  13. Estimating the Economic Attractiveness of Investment Projects in Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk with the Use of Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kotsyuba Oleksiy S.

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with the methodology of economic substantiation of real investments in case of considerable lack of information on possible fluctuations of initial parameters and the resulting risk. The analysis of sensitivity as the main instrument for accounting the risk in the indicated problem situation is the focus of the presented research. In the publication, on the basis of the apparatus of interval mathematics, a set of models for comparative estimation of economic attractiveness (efficiency of alternative investment projects in conditions of uncertainty and risk is formulated, using the sensitivity analysis. The developed instrumentarium assumes both mono- and poly-interval version of the sensitivity analysis. As the risk component in the constructed models is used: in some – values of the specially developed sensitivity coefficient, in others – the worst values, which are based on the interval estimations of the partial criteria of efficiency. The sensitivity coefficient, according to the approach proposed in the publication, is the ratio of the target semi-range of variation to the increase (economy of efficiency, which is provided when the basic level of the analyzed partial criterion of economic attractiveness in comparison with some of its threshold (limit value is being reached.

  14. Cognitive judgment bias interacts with risk based decision making and sensitivity to dopaminergic challenge in rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Drozd

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Although cognitive theory has implicated judgement bias in various psychopathologies, its role in decision making under risk remains relatively unexplored. In the present study we assessed the effects of cognitive judgment bias on risky choices in rats. First, we trained and tested the animals on the rat version of the probability-discounting task. During discrete trials, the rats chose between two levers; a press on the ‘small/certain’ lever always resulted in the delivery of one reward pellet, whereas a press on the ‘large/risky’ lever resulted in the delivery of four pellets. However, the probability of receiving a reward from the ‘large/risky’ lever gradually decreased over the four trial blocks. Subsequently, the rats were re-trained and evaluated on a series of ambiguous-cue interpretation tests, which permitted their classification according to the display of ‘optimistic’ or ‘pessimistic’ traits. Because dopamine has been implicated in both: risky choices and optimism, in the last experiment, we compared the reactivity of the dopaminergic system in the ‘optimistic’ and ‘pessimistic’ animals using the apomorphine (2mg/kg s.c. sensitivity test. We demonstrated that as risk increased, the proportion of risky lever choices decreased significantly slower in ‘optimists’ compared with ‘pessimists’ and that these differences between the two groups of rats were associated with different levels of dopaminergic system reactivity. Our findings suggest that cognitive judgement bias, risky decision-making and dopamine are linked, and they provide a foundation for further investigation of the behavioural traits and cognitive processes that influence risky choices in animal models.

  15. Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

    2007-03-01

    To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (Ptrinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

  16. EPIGENETIC RISK FACTORS OF FETAL SENSITIZATION TO ALLERGENS IN THE SYSTEM «MOTHER-FETUS-NEWBORN»

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Lityaeva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A comparative study of the state of health of 110 women with allergopathology at the stage of pregnancy and their newborn children, with an assessment of the influence of factors burdening fetal fetal development and contributing to the implementation of allergopathology in the first months of life.Trigger factors of disturbances in the formation of the intestinal microbiota, immune system and congenital decrease in the resistance of the child's organism — gestosis (c2 = 5.2, p = 0.022, Feto-placental insufficiency (c2 = 6.2, p = 0.012, chronic intrauterine fetal hypoxia (c2 = 5.7, p = 0.017, due to the presence in a woman with an allergic disease of combined somatic pathology and pathology of the genitals, malnutrition and microecological status.Such women should be classified as a high-risk group for intrauterine fetal sensitization and taken from the first days of pregnancy for primary prevention of allergopathology already at the stage of intrauterine development of the fetus. 

  17. Prognostic Value of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T Compared with Risk Scores in Stable Cardiovascular Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biener, Moritz; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Kuhner, Manuel; Zelniker, Thomas; Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Vafaie, Mehrshad; Trenk, Dietmar; Neumann, Franz-Josef; Hochholzer, Willibald; Katus, Hugo A

    2017-05-01

    Risk stratification of patients with cardiovascular disease remains challenging despite consideration of risk scores. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in a low-risk outpatient population presenting for nonsecondary and secondary prevention. All-cause mortality, a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke (end point 2), and a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, stroke and rehospitalization for acute coronary syndrome, and decompensated heart failure (end point 3) were defined. The prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T on index visit was compared with the PROCAM score and 3 FRAMINGHAM subscores. In 693 patients with a median follow-up of 796 days, we observed 16 deaths, 32 patients with end point 2, and 83 patients with end point 3. All risk scores performed better in the prediction of all-cause mortality in nonsecondary prevention (area under the curve [AUC]: PROCAM: 0.922 vs 0.523, P = .001, consistent for all other scores). In secondary prevention, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T outperformed all risk scores in the prediction of all-cause mortality (ΔAUC: PROCAM: 0.319, P risk scores. Our findings on the prediction of all-cause mortality compared with the FRAMINGHAM-Hard Coronary Heart Disease score were confirmed in an independent validation cohort on 2046 patients. High-sensitivity troponin T provides excellent risk stratification regarding all-cause mortality and all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke in a secondary prevention cohort in whom risk scores perform poorly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Life without risk?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hohlneicher, G.; Raschke, E.

    1989-01-01

    Mankind's sensitivity to new, global threats, to chemical and radioactive pollution and to interventions in the biological process actually gives rise to a one-sided and narrow range of reactions. Demands for zero-risk make one forget that a reduced risk many possibly lead to a far more dangerous risk in another place. That no uniform view of things can arise in this way is shown by these articles, from the areas of science, politics and the arts, on questions of world population, waste management, climatic change, genetic manipulation, philosophical and ethical problems of risk acceptance as well as the responsibility for risks. (DG) [de

  19. The threat of proliferation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palme, Olof.

    1986-01-01

    The paper on the threat of proliferation, is a keynote speech delivered to the Colloquium on Nuclear War, Nuclear Proliferation and their Consequences, Geneva, 1985. Topics discussed in the address include: nuclear weapons, nuclear war, terrorists, Non-Proliferation Treaty, nuclear disarmament, and leadership in world affairs. (UK)

  20. Stereotype threat affects financial decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Priyanka B; Steele, Claude M

    2010-10-01

    The research presented in this article provides the first evidence that one's decision making can be influenced by concerns about stereotypes and the devaluation of one's identity. Many studies document gender differences in decision making, and often attribute these differences to innate and stable factors, such as biological and hormonal differences. In three studies, we found that stereotype threat affected decision making and led to gender differences in loss-aversion and risk-aversion behaviors. In Study 1, women subjected to stereotype threat in academic and business settings were more loss averse than both men and women who were not facing the threat of being viewed in light of negative stereotypes. We found no gender differences in loss-aversion behavior in the absence of stereotype threat. In Studies 2a and 2b, we found the same pattern of effects for risk-aversion behavior that we had observed for loss-aversion behavior. In addition, in Study 2b, ego depletion mediated the effects of stereotype threat on women's decision making. These results suggest that individuals' decision making can be influenced by stereotype concerns.

  1. Analysis of inland crude oil spill threats, vulnerabilities, and emergency response in the midwest United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brody, Thomas M; Di Bianca, Paisly; Krysa, Jan

    2012-10-01

    Although coastal oil spills tend to be highly publicized, crude oil spills in the United States affect inland areas relatively often. Spills to inland areas often affect sensitive environments and can have greater impacts to health and welfare than spills to coastal areas. For these reasons, the authors investigated inland crude oil spill threats, vulnerabilities, and emergency response in the midwestern U.S. states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. These states work with the Region 5 Offices of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Region 5's geospatial data in the Inland Sensitivity Atlas were turned into metrics indicating inland crude oil spill threats and vulnerabilities among the Region's sub-watersheds. These threats and vulnerabilities were weighted using data from the National Response Center and the Department of Energy's Environmental Restoration Priority System. The locations of the Region's emergency responders were geocoded in GIS. The GIS calculated the emergency response times to the Region's sub-watersheds. The resulting scatter plots are connected to the sub-watersheds in the map so stakeholders can (1) see the outlying sub-watersheds of concern and (2) better understand how reducing threats and better response time can reduce the risk of inland crude oil spills. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A.

  2. The nuclear threat and the Nuclear Threat Initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtis, Charles

    2001-01-01

    Full text: President and chief operating officer of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), was invited by the IAEA Director General to speak about NTI and its mission at the IAEA Safeguards Symposium. Established by CNN founder Ted Turner and former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, NTI is a charitable organization working to strengthen global security by reducing the risk of use and preventing the spread of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. The foundation is global, concentrating not just on the United States, Russia, and other nations of the former Soviet Union, but also on those regions of greatest proliferation concern in Asia and the Middle East. NTI is working to close what it perceives as an increasingly dangerous gap between the threat from nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and the global response. NTI is supported by a pledge from Mr. Turner of at least $250 million over five years, among the largest sums any private individual has ever invested in these security issues. NTI's Board of Directors, an international team of experienced and knowledgeable experts, determines the overall direction of the foundation. (author)

  3. Stereotype Threat and Gender Differences in Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunny, Cijy Elizabeth; Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Clark, Lauren; Marchand, Gwen

    2017-01-01

    Stereotype threat theory (STT) offers one explanation for achievement differences in math and science for both women and minority students. Specifically, STT posits that the perceived risk of confirming a negative stereotype about an individual's identity group acts as a psychological burden that negatively impacts performance. This study examined…

  4. Reducing Stereotype Threat in Urban Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merillat, Bethany D.; Corrigan, Diane G.; Harper, Brian E.

    2018-01-01

    Research suggests student performance may be negatively influenced by stereotype threat, "being at risk of confirming, as self-characteristic, a negative stereotype about one's group" (Steele and Aronson in "J Personal Soc Psychol" 69(5):797, 1995). However, studies have also found that educating students about stereotype…

  5. 24 CFR 9.131 - Direct threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... health or safety of others. (b) “Direct threat” means a significant risk to the health or safety of... provision of auxiliary aids or services. (c) In determining whether an individual poses a direct threat to the health or safety of others, the agency must make an individualized assessment, based on reasonable...

  6. Counteracting effect of threat on reward enhancements during working memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jong Moon; Padmala, Srikanth; Pessoa, Luiz

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive performance has been shown to be enhanced when performance-based rewards are at stake. On the other hand, task-irrelevant threat processing has been shown to have detrimental effects during several cognitive tasks. Crucially, the impact of reward and threat on cognition has been studied largely independently of one another. Hence, our understanding of how reward and threat simultaneously contribute to performance is incomplete. To fill in this gap, the present study investigated how reward and threat interact with one another during a cognitive task. We found that threat of shock counteracted the beneficial effect of reward during a working memory task. Furthermore, individual differences in self-reported reward-sensitivity and anxiety were linked to the extent to which reward and threat interacted during behaviour. Together, the current findings contribute to a limited but growing literature unravelling how positive and negative information processing jointly influence cognition.

  7. Reinforcement Sensitivity and Risk for Psychopathology Following Exposure to Violence: A Vulnerability-Specificity Model in Latino Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudino, Omar G.; Nadeem, Erum; Kataoka, Sheryl H.; Lau, Anna S.

    2012-01-01

    Urban Latino youth are exposed to high rates of violence, which increases risk for diverse forms of psychopathology. The current study aims to increase specificity in predicting responses by testing the hypothesis that youths' reinforcement sensitivity--behavioral inhibition (BIS) and behavioral approach (BAS)--is associated with specific clinical…

  8. Risk factors associated with sensitive skin and potential role of lifestyle habits: a cross-sectional study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Falcone, D.; Richters, R.J.H.; Uzunbajakava, N.E.; Erp, P.E.J. van; Kerkhof, P.C.M. van de

    2017-01-01

    Sensitive skin (SS) is a widespread condition, but still not completely understood. To identify risk factors that increase the likelihood of SS, 258 women aged between 20 and 65 years old and resident in the Netherlands were surveyed by questionnaire, which included questions on sociodemographic

  9. Synthesis strategy: building a culturally sensitive mid-range theory of risk perception using literary, quantitative, and qualitative methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siaki, Leilani A; Loescher, Lois J; Trego, Lori L

    2013-03-01

    This article presents a discussion of development of a mid-range theory of risk perception. Unhealthy behaviours contribute to the development of health inequalities worldwide. The link between perceived risk and successful health behaviour change is inconclusive, particularly in vulnerable populations. This may be attributed to inattention to culture. The synthesis strategy of theory building guided the process using three methods: (1) a systematic review of literature published between 2000-2011 targeting perceived risk in vulnerable populations; (2) qualitative and (3) quantitative data from a study of Samoan Pacific Islanders at high risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Main concepts of this theory include risk attention, appraisal processes, cognition, and affect. Overarching these concepts is health-world view: cultural ways of knowing, beliefs, values, images, and ideas. This theory proposes the following: (1) risk attention varies based on knowledge of the health risk in the context of health-world views; (2) risk appraisals are influenced by affect, health-world views, cultural customs, and protocols that intersect with the health risk; (3) strength of cultural beliefs, values, and images (cultural identity) mediate risk attention and risk appraisal influencing the likelihood that persons will engage in health-promoting behaviours that may contradict cultural customs/protocols. Interventions guided by a culturally sensitive mid-range theory may improve behaviour-related health inequalities in vulnerable populations. The synthesis strategy is an intensive process for developing a culturally sensitive mid-range theory. Testing of the theory will ascertain its usefulness for reducing health inequalities in vulnerable groups. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Development of a semi-quantitative risk assessment model for evaluating environmental threat posed by the three first EU watch-list pharmaceuticals to urban wastewater treatment plants: An Irish case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahar, Alexandre; Tiedeken, Erin Jo; Clifford, Eoghan; Cummins, Enda; Rowan, Neil

    2017-12-15

    Contamination of receiving waters with pharmaceutical compounds is of pressing concern. This constitutes the first study to report on the development of a semi-quantitative risk assessment (RA) model for evaluating the environmental threat posed by three EU watch list pharmaceutical compounds namely, diclofenac, 17-beta-estradiol and 17-alpha-ethinylestradiol, to aquatic ecosystems using Irish data as a case study. This RA model adopts the Irish Environmental Protection Agency Source-Pathway-Receptor concept to define relevant parameters for calculating low, medium or high risk score for each agglomeration of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), which include catchment, treatments, operational and management factors. This RA model may potentially be used on a national scale to (i) identify WWTPs that pose a particular risk as regards releasing disproportionally high levels of these pharmaceutical compounds, and (ii) help identify priority locations for introducing or upgrading control measures (e.g. tertiary treatment, source reduction). To assess risks for these substances of emerging concern, the model was applied to 16 urban WWTPs located in different regions in Ireland that were scored for the three different compounds and ranked as low, medium or high risk. As a validation proxy, this case study used limited monitoring data recorded at some these plants receiving waters. It is envisaged that this semi-quantitative RA approach may aid other EU countries investigate and screen for potential risks where limited measured or predicted environmental pollutant concentrations and/or hydrological data are available. This model is semi-quantitative, as other factors such as influence of climate change and drug usage or prescription data will need to be considered in a future point for estimating and predicting risks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. The role of fear and threat in communicating risk scenarios and the need for actions. Effect of fear on information processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meijnders, A.L.; Midden, C.J.H. [Eindhoven University of Technology, Faculty of Philosophy and Social Sciences, Department of Psychology and Linguistics, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Wilke, H.A.M. [Leiden University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social and Organizational Psychology, Leiden (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    The results of a first experiment regarding the title subject, in which we examined whether fear of environmental risks increases the tendency to carefully process information on environmentally sound behaviour, are discussed. 2 figs., 10 refs.

  12. Subsurface information for risk-sensitive urban spatial planning in Dhaka Metropolitan City, Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Günther, Andreas; Aziz Patwary, Mohammad Abdul; Bahls, Rebecca; Asaduzzaman, Atm; Ludwig, Rüdiger; Ashraful Kamal, Mohammad; Nahar Faruqa, Nurun; Jabeen, Sarwat

    2016-04-01

    Dhaka Metropolitan City (including Dhaka and five adjacent municipal areas) is one of the fastest developing urban regions in the world. Densely build-up areas in the developed metropolitan area of Dhaka City are subject to extensive restructuring as common six- or lower storied buildings are replaced by higher and heavier constructions. Additional stories are built on existing houses, frequently exceeding the allowable bearing pressure on the subsoil as supported by the foundations. In turn, newly developing city areas are projected in marshy terrains modified by extensive, largely unengineered landfills. In most areas, these terrains bear unfavorable building ground conditions within 30 meters. Within a collaborative technical cooperation project between Bangladesh and Germany, BGR supports GSB in the provision of geo-information for the Capital Development Authority (RAJUK). For general urban planning, RAJUK successively develops a detailed area plan (DAP) at scale 1 : 50000 for the whole Dhaka Metropolitan City area (approx. 1700 km2). Geo-information have not been considered in the present DAP. Within the project, geospatial information in form of a geomorphic map, a digital terrain model and a 3-D subsurface model covering the whole city area have been generated at a scale of 1 : 50000. An extensive engineering geological data base consisting of more than 2200 borehole data with associated Standard Penetration Testing (SPT) and lab data has been compiled. With the field testing (SPT) and engineering geological lab data, the 3-D subsurface model can be parameterized to derive important spatial subsurface information for urban planning like bearing capacity evaluations for different foundation designs or soil liquefaction potential assessments for specific earthquake scenarios. In conjunction with inundation potential evaluations for different flooding scenarios, comprehensive building ground suitability information can be derived to support risk-sensitive

  13. Terrorist threats of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jozsef Solymosi; Jozser Ronaky; Zoltan Levai; Arpad Vincze; Laszlo Foldi

    2004-01-01

    More than one year has passed since the terrible terrorist attacks against the United States. The tragic event fundamentally restructured our security policy approach and made requirements of countering terrorism a top priority of the 21st century. In one year a lot of studies were published and the majority of them analyses primarily the beginnings of terrorism then focus on the interrelations of causes and consequences of the attacks against the WTC. In most of the cases the authors can only put their questions most of which have remained unanswered to date. Meanwhile, in a short while after the attacks the secret assessments of threat levels of potential targets and areas were also prepared. One of the high priority fields is the issue of nuclear, biological, and chemical security, in short NBC-security. Here and now we focus on component N, that is the assessment techniques of nuclear security in short, without aiming at completeness. Our definite objective is to make non-expert readers understand - and present a concrete example as it is done in risk analysis - the real danger-level of nuclear facilities and especially the terrorist threat. Our objective is not to give tips to terrorists but to provide them with deterring arguments and at the same time calm worried people. In our communique we give an overview of international practice of nuclear antiterrorism and of preventive nuclear protection in Hungary. (author)

  14. Terrorism: the threat of a radiological device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kingshott, B.F.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: This paper will discuss terrorism from the perspective of a terrorist organization building and detonating a 'dirty bomb' with a radiological component. The paper will discuss how such devices are made and how security of radiological material world wide will minimize the risk of such devices being used. It will discuss the threat assessments against nuclear waste processing and storage sites, threats to nuclear plants and other sites and the adequacy of current security. It will also discuss the phenomenon of suicide attacks by the bomb carriers and the role of the media in informing and educating the general public of the consequences should such a device be detonated. (author)

  15. [Assessment of work environment vs. feeling of threat and aggravation of stress in job of a high risk - An attempt of organizational intervention].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stasiła-Sieradzka, Marta; Chudzicka-Czupała, Agata; Grabowski, Damian; Dobrowolska, Małgorzata

    2018-01-01

    The main purpose of this article was to examine, whether and to what extend an assessment of work environment and feeling of threat are associated with stress at work performed in health- and life-threatening conditions. Previous studies of the determinants of occupational stress have been carried out in relation to representatives of different occupational groups that are not, however, representatives of one organization. The research was also meant to provide practical guidance for a particular employer. The study was carried out in the factory of explosives. It involved 95 randomly selected employees of the production departments. Subjective evaluation of work was performed by the examined persons in the Areas of Worklife Survey. It allows to assess the functioning of the employee in the workplace and to recognize the discrepancies between the requirements of the organization and the needs, aspirations and abilities of the examined person. Feeling of insecurity at work was defined by using the Feeling of Danger at Work Survey. The level of stress was assessed using the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-10). The workload and feeling of danger are relevant to the stress felt by the employees. The workload is also the mediator of the relations between the sense of danger and the stress felt by the examined employees. At the level of manufacturing process management in an organization, there is a need to reduce the negative impact of physical and mental strain associated with haste and uncertainty. Med Pr 2018;69(1):45-58. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

  16. Insider threats to cybersecurity

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Lakha, D

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available ? Acting on opportunity Taking revenge for perceived injustice Making a statement Doing competitor s bidding Seeing themselves as a future competition INSIDER THREATS | Combating it! Darshan Lakha 7 5 January 2017 General Investigations...! Darshan Lakha 11 5 January 2017 Monitor user actions Use auditing to monitor access to files Examine cached Web files Monitor Web access at the firewall Monitor incoming and outgoing e-mail messages Control what software employees can install...

  17. Flexible training under threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Anita; Eaton, Jennifer

    2002-10-01

    As the number of women in medicine and the general demand for a better work-life balance rises, flexible training is an increasingly important mechanism for maintaining the medical workforce. The new pay deal, together with entrenched cultural attitudes, are potential threats. Ways forward include more substantive part-time posts, more part-time opportunities at consultant level, and using positive experiences as a way of tackling attitudes in the less accepting specialties.

  18. End the nuclear threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Douglas, Michael

    2005-01-01

    's promises and commitments. Fulfilling our promises in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, now with 189 member States, must be a primary aim. This Treaty, essential to our security, will be reviewed formally in 2005 at the UN. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) performs a vital role under the Treaty - it's the world's nuclear inspectorate to check that countries are not pursuing nuclear weapons. I've had the chance to visit the UN and IAEA at their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, and know how tough the job can be. We need to back the IAEA and make sure it stays strong in our fight against nuclear weapons. At the 2000 Review of the Treaty, the US along with all other parties to the Treaty made a pledge. Let me remind you of what was promised, and I quote: 'an unequivocal undertaking by the nuclear weapons States to accomplish the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals. leading to nuclear disarmament.' There are tens of thousands of nuclear weapons in the world, over 90% are possessed by Russia and the US. Most are many times more devastating than those used on Hiroshima. The arsenals of Russia and the US are armed, targeted and poised, waiting for three short computer signals to fire. These hair trigger devices represent the devastation of approximately 100,000 Hiroshimas and pose a horrific threat to life. The use of a nuclear weapon could take place by accident or design by States, or even terrorists. These weapons pose an unacceptable risk to the planet. We must demonstrate our unambiguous commitment to fulfill our promises. Other-wise, the prospect of more nuclear weapons States, and the construction of new nuclear weapons, will only increase human peril. The world needs a more effective non-proliferation and disarmament regime and is looking to us for leadership

  19. Mitigation of the threat posed to transfusion by donors traveling to Zika-affected areas: a Canadian risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germain, Marc; Delage, Gilles; O'Brien, Sheila F; Grégoire, Yves; Fearon, Margaret; Devine, Dana

    2017-10-01

    The recent spread of the Zika virus to the Americas and the recognition that it can cause severe disease in the developing fetus has prompted the adoption of measures to mitigate the risk that this virus might pose to transfusion safety. In nonendemic countries, the risk to transfusion results from donors traveling to an endemic region. Canada implemented a 21-day temporary deferral for prospective donors who traveled to such regions. We present the rationale for this policy, including a quantitative risk assessment supported by a Monte Carlo simulation. The model considered the following parameters, each with specified values and ranges: the probability that a donor recently returned from a Zika-endemic region, the duration of travel to this region, the daily risk of acquiring Zika while in an endemic region, and the incubation and viremic periods. We ran the simulation 20 times, each with 10 million iterations. In the absence of any travel deferral, 32 donors (range, 20-46 donors) would be able to donate while still being at risk of transmitting Zika, corresponding to a rate of 1:312,500 (range, 1:217,000 to 1:500,000). None of these donors would be viremic beyond 21 days after returning from their travel, with a risk estimated at less than 1:200,000,000. A 21-day temporary travel deferral offers an extremely wide margin of safety for the possible transmission of Zika by a donation obtained from someone who recently returned from a country where the virus is circulating. © 2017 AABB.

  20. Sensitization to 10 mites in a tropic area. Der p and Der f are important risk factor for sensitization to other mites from Pyroglyphidae, Acaridae, Chortoglyphidae, and Glyciphagidae families

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Sánchez

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Much is known about the frequency of sensitization to Blomia tropicalis, Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus and Dermatophagoides farinae, although less is known about sensitization to other species and their possible interactions. Objective: In patients with allergic manifestations, to evaluate the frequency of sensitization to 10 species of mites in a tropical area and their possible interactions. Methods: Cross-sectional study. Sensitization was evaluated by skin tests. A generalized linear Poisson regression model with robust variance was used. Based on the sensitization probability reasons and social networking analysis, explorations of relationship for 10 mites were performed. Results: 147 patients were included. The highest sensitization was found to mites' family Pyroglyphidae (> 70 % and less frequently was the Glycyphagidae family (< 50 %. Sensitization to any mites significantly increased the likelihood of sensitization to others. Sensitization to Der f or Der p increased, more than 20 times the likelihood of sensitization to other mites of the Pyroglyphidae family and more than 10 times to mites from other families. Sensitization to mites from Glycyphagidae, Chortoglyphidae or Acaridae family also increased the risk of sensitization to other mites but less than 5 times. Conclusion: Sensitization to mites is frequent in tropical area. Pyroglyphidae sensitization is the main risk factor for polysensitization with other mites from Glycyphagidae, Chortoglyphidae or Acaridae. These results must be considered at diagnosis and treatment of allergy diseases.

  1. Examining anxiety sensitivity as a mediator of the association between PTSD symptoms and suicide risk among women firefighters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Ian H; Hom, Melanie A; Spencer-Thomas, Sally; Joiner, Thomas E

    2017-08-01

    Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms are associated with increased suicide risk. Anxiety sensitivity (AS)-the fear of anxiety-related sensations-is both a vulnerability factor for and consequence of PTSD symptoms. AS also predicts suicide risk. To our knowledge, no study has examined whether AS concerns account for the association between PTSD symptoms and suicide risk. A total of 254 women firefighters completed a web-based mental health survey. The Life Events Checklist for DSM-5 (LEC-5) was administered as a prelude to the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5) to assess for exposure to a Criterion A event. The PCL-5, Anxiety Sensitivity Index-3 (ASI-3), and Suicidal Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised (SBQ-R) were utilized to assess PTSD symptoms, AS concerns, and suicide risk, respectively. Bootstrap mediation analyses were conducted, controlling for depression symptoms as measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale-Revised (CESD-R). Global and cognitive AS concerns, but neither physical nor social AS concerns, were statistically significant mediators of the relationship between PTSD symptoms (total score, re-experiencing and numbing clusters) and suicide risk. Alternate mediation models testing PTSD symptoms as a mediator of the relationship between AS concerns and suicide risk were not statistically significant, supporting the specificity of our proposed model. Anxiety sensitivity concerns-specifically, cognitive AS concerns-account for the link between PTSD symptoms and suicide risk among women firefighters. Among firefighters with elevated PTSD symptoms, interventions that address cognitive AS concerns may thwart the trajectory to suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Environmental risk of oil production in sensitive areas[Pollution abatement in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahle, Salve; Larsen, Lars-Henrik

    2006-07-01

    The presentation discusses sensitive areas in the Arctic regions with focus on the north of Norway and the Barents Sea. Various ecosystem problems related to oil and gas production are pointed out. Characteristics of particularly sensitive areas are mentioned and some examples of vulnerable areas are discussed (tk)

  3. Sex hormone-binding globulin levels predict insulin sensitivity, disposition index, and cardiovascular risk during puberty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kaspar; Aksglaede, Lise; Munch-Andersen, Thor

    2009-01-01

    Early puberty is associated with increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular disease. Low sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) levels are a feature of early puberty and of conditions associated with increased cardiovascular risk. The aim of the present study was to evaluate SHBG as a predictor...... of glucose metabolism and metabolic risk during puberty....

  4. Los riesgos geográficos y su impacto en la sociedad: amenazas y desastres. / Geographical risks and their impact on society: threats and disasters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferrando A., Francisco J.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Los riesgos son un constructo social en la medida que es el hombre el que se instala o construye en lugares inadecuados y con formas inadecuadas, respecto de la dinámica de la naturaleza, de las amenazas más frecuentes./Risks are a social construction in the sense that man settles and or builds on inadequate places and in an inadequate ways, concerning the dynamics of nature and the more frequent hazards.

  5. Threat modeling designing for security

    CERN Document Server

    Shostack, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Adam Shostack is responsible for security development lifecycle threat modeling at Microsoft and is one of a handful of threat modeling experts in the world. Now, he is sharing his considerable expertise into this unique book. With pages of specific actionable advice, he details how to build better security into the design of systems, software, or services from the outset. You'll explore various threat modeling approaches, find out how to test your designs against threats, and learn effective ways to address threats that have been validated at Microsoft and other top companies. Systems secur

  6. Sensitivity and bias in decision-making under risk: evaluating the perception of reward, its probability and value.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madeleine E Sharp

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. OBJECTIVE: We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. DESIGN/METHODS: Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. RESULTS: Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a 'risk premium' of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. CONCLUSIONS: This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia.

  7. Sensitivity and Bias in Decision-Making under Risk: Evaluating the Perception of Reward, Its Probability and Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Madeleine E.; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J.; Barton, Jason J. S.

    2012-01-01

    Background There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. Objective We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Design/Methods Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Results Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a ‘risk premium’ of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. Conclusions This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia. PMID:22493669

  8. Contraband and threat material detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowrey, J. D.; Dunn, W.L.

    2008-01-01

    Full text: A pressing threat in modern society is the effective use of improvised explosive devices or IED's. One of the commonly used techniques to detect explosives is radiography. A primary drawback of this method is that humans are required in order to examine the image of each target. This requires trained personnel, who are subject to fatigue if many targets are being examined in rapid succession. Other trace element techniques generally require collection of samples from or near the surface of suspect targets. The signature-based radiation scanning (SBRS) technology has been developed to counter this threat. This technology can result in automated systems, requiring minimal operator involvement, that can rapidly identify IEDs from standoff. Preliminary research indicates that explosive samples of 5-10 kg or greater hidden in various targets can be detected from standoffs of more than a meter, with high sensitivity and high specificity. Many common explosives have similar concentrations of hydrogen, carbon, nitrogen and oxygen (HCNO). As neutrons interact with HCNO materials, unique signatures are created based on the specific composition of the material. We collect signatures from the HCNO prompt and inelastically scattered gamma rays and from scattered neutrons. Two neutron detectors (one bare and one cadmium-covered) are used in order to provide some measure of the back-scattered neutron spectrum. A library of signature templates, based on signatures detected from known targets containing known explosives in various configurations, is created. Similar signatures can be collected for suspect targets. Then a template-matching technique is used to construct two figure-of-merit metrics. The values of these metrics can be used to differentiate between safe targets and IEDs. Laboratory tests have been conducted using a high purity Germanium (HPGe) detector and two europium-doped lithium-iodide neutron detectors (one bare and one covered with cadmium) are used to

  9. The threat from without

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lassi Saressalo

    1987-01-01

    Full Text Available Of greatest importance in ethnic folklore are the recognised and unrecognised elements that are used when founding identity on tradition. For the aim of ethnic identification is to note and know the cultural features that connect me with people like me and separate me from people who are not like me. Every group and each of its members thus needs an opponent, a contact partner in order to identify itself. What about the Lapps? The ethnocentric values of ethnic folklore provide a model for this generalising comparison. 'They' are a potential danger, are unknown, strange, a threat from beyond the fells. They are sufficiently common for the group's ethnic feeling. It is here that we find tradition, folk tales, describing the community's traditional enemies, describing the threat from without, engendering preconceived ideas, conflicts and even war. The Lapps have never had an empire, they have never conquered others' territory, they have never engaged in systematic warfare against other peoples. For this reason Lapp tradition lacks an offensive ethnic folklore proper with emphasis on aggression, power, violence, heroism and an acceptance of the ideology of subordinating others. On the contrary,Lapp folklore is familiar with a tradition in which strangers are always threatening the Lapps' existence, plundering their territories, burning and destroying. The Lapp has always had to fight against alien powers, to give in or to outwit the great and powerful enemy. In the Lapp tradition the staalo represents an outside threat that cannot be directly concretised. If foes are regarded as concrete enemies that may be defeated in physical combat or that can be made to look ridiculous, a staalo is more mythical, more supranormal, more vague. One basic feature of the staalo tradition is that it only appears as one party to a conflict. The stories about the Lapp who succeeds in driving away a staalo threatening the community, to outwit the stupid giant or to kill

  10. Threats to international science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kisslinger, Carl

    The role of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) as effective agents for promoting world science is seriously threatened. It is ironic that the threat comes from Norway and Denmark, two countries that have demonstrated a deep commitment to individual freedom and human rights. Motivated by a sincere desire to express their strongest disapproval of the “apartheid” policies of the government of the Republic of South Africa, these countries have passed laws that have the effect of rejecting the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) principles of nondiscrimination and free circulation of scientists.

  11. Mutagen Sensitivity, Apoptosis, and Polymorphism in DNA Repair as Measures of Prostate Cancer Risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Goldman, Radoslav

    2006-01-01

    .... We also created a computerized database of the samples in Microsoft Access. We developed assays for mutagen sensitivity, comet assay, and apoptosis in white blood cells exposed to bleomycin and ionizing radiation to evaluate...

  12. Mitigating Inadvertent Insider Threats with Incentives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Debin; Wang, Xiaofeng; Camp, L. Jean

    Inadvertent insiders are trusted insiders who do not have malicious intent (as with malicious insiders) but do not responsibly managing security. The result is often enabling a malicious outsider to use the privileges of the inattentive insider to implement an insider attack. This risk is as old as conversion of a weak user password into root access, but the term inadvertent insider is recently coined to identify the link between the behavior and the vulnerability. In this paper, we propose to mitigate this threat using a novel risk budget mechanism that offers incentives to an insider to behave according to the risk posture set by the organization. We propose assigning an insider a risk budget, which is a specific allocation of risk points, allowing employees to take a finite number of risk-seeking choice. In this way, the employee can complete her tasks without subverting the security system, as with absolute prohibitions. In the end, the organization penalizes the insider if she fails to accomplish her task within the budget while rewards her in the presence of a surplus. Most importantly. the risk budget requires that the user make conscious visible choices to take electronic risks. We describe the theory behind the system, including specific work on the insider threats. We evaluated this approach using human-subject experiments, which demonstrate the effectiveness of our risk budget mechanism. We also present a game theoretic analysis of the mechanism.

  13. RISK MANAGEMENT IN SMALL AND MEDIUM – SIZED ENTERPRISES: A GENDER-SENSITIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iwona Gorzeń-Mitka

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Risk is inherent in all business functions and in every kind of activity. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs are particularly vulnerable to continuously daily internal and external undesirable events that adversely affect business performance. To deal with many risk determinants effectively, SMEs need a systemic method of approach to risk management. One of the factors of company risk management approach is gender of the owners or top executives. Especially from a managerial perspective, the link between risk-taking and gender has been examined through a wide range of approaches, such as entrepreneurial orientation and leadership related literatures. Some researchers point that male SME owners appear to show a greater risk appetite than female SME owners. The leading question in the undertaken research was to determine whether the gender of the firm's owners or top executives are reflected in the approach to risk management. The focal point of the research is identification of differences in risk taking and risk management in Polish SMEs companies from a gender perspective.

  14. Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Probabilistic Information on Climate Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi; Roshan, Elnaz; Held, Hermann

    2017-04-01

    In principle solar radiation management (SRM) offers an option to ameliorate anthropogenic temperature rise. However we cannot expect it to simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we ask to what extent a proponent of the 2°C-temperature target would apply SRM in conjunction with mitigation in view of global or regional disparities in precipitation changes. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that makes a trade-off between the expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and the climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in both global-scale and 'Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mixture of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including not only temperature risk, but also globally aggregated and regionally disaggregated precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized for the following three valuation scenarios: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. For now, the Giorgi regions are treated by equal weight. We find that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SRM will be comparably more restricted. In the course of time, a cooling of up to 1.3°C can be attributed to SRM for the latter scenario and for a median climate sensitivity of 3°C (for a global target only, this number reduces by 0.5°C). Our results indicate that although SRM would almost completely substitute for mitigation in the globally aggregated analysis, it only saves 70% to 75% of the welfare-loss compared to a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, approximately 4% in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks in precipitation-risk-only and both-risks scenarios. It remains to be shown how the inclusion of further risks or different regional weights would

  15. Addressing the insider threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hochberg, J.G.; Jackson, K.A.; McClary, J.F.; Simmonds, D.D.

    1993-05-01

    Computers have come to play a major role in the processing of information vital to our national security. As we grow more dependent on computers, we also become more vulnerable to their misuse. Misuse may be accidental, or may occur deliberately for purposes of personal gain, espionage, terrorism, or revenge. While it is difficult to obtain exact statistics on computer misuse, clearly it is growing. It is also clear that insiders -- authorized system users -- are responsible for most of this increase. Unfortunately, their insider status gives them a greater potential for harm This paper takes an asset-based approach to the insider threat. We begin by characterizing the insider and the threat posed by variously motivated insiders. Next, we characterize the asset of concern: computerized information of strategic or economic value. We discuss four general ways in which computerized information is vulnerable to adversary action by the insider: disclosure, violation of integrity, denial of service, and unauthorized use of resources. We then look at three general remedies for these vulnerabilities. The first is formality of operations, such as training, personnel screening, and configuration management. The second is the institution of automated safeguards, such as single-use passwords, encryption, and biometric devices. The third is the development of automated systems that collect and analyze system and user data to look for signs of misuse.

  16. Addressing the insider threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hochberg, J.G.; Jackson, K.A.; McClary, J.F.; Simmonds, D.D.

    1993-01-01

    Computers have come to play a major role in the processing of information vital to our national security. As we grow more dependent on computers, we also become more vulnerable to their misuse. Misuse may be accidental, or may occur deliberately for purposes of personal gain, espionage, terrorism, or revenge. While it is difficult to obtain exact statistics on computer misuse, clearly it is growing. It is also clear that insiders -- authorized system users -- are responsible for most of this increase. Unfortunately, their insider status gives them a greater potential for harm This paper takes an asset-based approach to the insider threat. We begin by characterizing the insider and the threat posed by variously motivated insiders. Next, we characterize the asset of concern: computerized information of strategic or economic value. We discuss four general ways in which computerized information is vulnerable to adversary action by the insider: disclosure, violation of integrity, denial of service, and unauthorized use of resources. We then look at three general remedies for these vulnerabilities. The first is formality of operations, such as training, personnel screening, and configuration management. The second is the institution of automated safeguards, such as single-use passwords, encryption, and biometric devices. The third is the development of automated systems that collect and analyze system and user data to look for signs of misuse.

  17. Sex Differences in High Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein in Subjects with Risk Factors of Metabolic Syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Vinicius Pacheco; Rocha, Helena Naly Miguens [Laboratório de Ciências do Exercício - Departamento de Fisiologia e Farmacologia - Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niterói, RJ (Brazil); Sales, Allan Robson Kluser [Unidade de Reabilitação Cardiovascular e Fisiologia do Exercício - Instituto do Coração (InCor) - Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Rocha, Natália Galito; Nóbrega, Antonio Claudio Lucas da, E-mail: anobrega@id.uff.br [Laboratório de Ciências do Exercício - Departamento de Fisiologia e Farmacologia - Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niterói, RJ (Brazil)

    2016-03-15

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) is a prototypic marker of inflammation usually increased in MetS. Women with MetS-related diseases present higher hsCRP levels than men with MetS-related diseases, suggesting sex differences in inflammatory markers. However, it is unclear whether serum hsCRP levels are already increased in men and/or women with MetS risk factors and without overt diseases or under pharmacological treatment. To determine the impact of the number of MetS risk factors on serum hsCRP levels in women and men. One hundred and eighteen subjects (70 men and 48 women; 36 ± 1 years) were divided into four groups according to the number of MetS risk factors: healthy group (CT; no risk factors), MetS ≤ 2, MetS = 3, and MetS ≥ 4. Blood was drawn after 12 hours of fasting for measurement of biochemical variables and hsCRP levels, which were determined by immunoturbidimetric assay. The groups with MetS risk factors presented higher serum hsCRP levels when compared with the CT group (p < 0.02). There were no differences in hsCRP levels among groups with MetS risk factors (p > 0.05). The best linear regression model to explain the association between MetS risk factors and hsCRP levels included waist circumference and HDL cholesterol (r = 0.40, p < 0.01). Women with MetS risk factors presented higher hsCRP levels when compared with men (p{sub sex} < 0.01). Despite the absence of overt diseases and pharmacological treatment, subjects with MetS risk factors already presented increased hsCRP levels, which were significantly higher in women than men at similar conditions.

  18. Sex Differences in High Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein in Subjects with Risk Factors of Metabolic Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, Vinicius Pacheco; Rocha, Helena Naly Miguens; Sales, Allan Robson Kluser; Rocha, Natália Galito; Nóbrega, Antonio Claudio Lucas da

    2016-01-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) is a prototypic marker of inflammation usually increased in MetS. Women with MetS-related diseases present higher hsCRP levels than men with MetS-related diseases, suggesting sex differences in inflammatory markers. However, it is unclear whether serum hsCRP levels are already increased in men and/or women with MetS risk factors and without overt diseases or under pharmacological treatment. To determine the impact of the number of MetS risk factors on serum hsCRP levels in women and men. One hundred and eighteen subjects (70 men and 48 women; 36 ± 1 years) were divided into four groups according to the number of MetS risk factors: healthy group (CT; no risk factors), MetS ≤ 2, MetS = 3, and MetS ≥ 4. Blood was drawn after 12 hours of fasting for measurement of biochemical variables and hsCRP levels, which were determined by immunoturbidimetric assay. The groups with MetS risk factors presented higher serum hsCRP levels when compared with the CT group (p < 0.02). There were no differences in hsCRP levels among groups with MetS risk factors (p > 0.05). The best linear regression model to explain the association between MetS risk factors and hsCRP levels included waist circumference and HDL cholesterol (r = 0.40, p < 0.01). Women with MetS risk factors presented higher hsCRP levels when compared with men (p sex < 0.01). Despite the absence of overt diseases and pharmacological treatment, subjects with MetS risk factors already presented increased hsCRP levels, which were significantly higher in women than men at similar conditions

  19. Insulin sensitivity and mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: There is at present the dearth of information on the possible contribution of insulin resistance to scores obtained from mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Aim: This study determined the mortality risk scores in patients with T2DM and its relationship with insulin resistance.

  20. Assessment of the risk of respiratory sensitization from fragrance allergens released by air fresheners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ter Burg, Wouter; Bouma, Krista; Schakel, Durk J; Wijnhoven, Susan W P; van Engelen, Jacqueline; van Loveren, Henk; Ezendam, Janine

    2014-04-01

    Consumers using air fresheners are exposed to the emitted ingredients, including fragrances, via the respiratory tract. Several fragrances are known skin sensitizers, but it is unknown whether inhalation exposure to these chemicals can induce respiratory sensitization. Effects on the immune system were assessed by testing a selection of five fragrance allergens in the respiratory local lymph node assay (LLNA). The probability and extent of exposure were assessed by measuring concentrations of the 24 known fragrance allergens in 109 air fresheners. It was shown that the most frequently used fragrances in air fresheners were D-limonene and linalool. In the respiratory LLNA, these fragrances were negative. Of the other tested chemicals, only isoeugenol induced a statistically significant increase in cell proliferation. Consumer exposure was assessed in more detail for D-limonene, linalool, and isoeugenol by using exposure modeling tools. It was shown that the most frequently used fragrances in air fresheners, D-limonene, and linalool gave rise to a higher consumer exposure compared with isoeugenol. To evaluate whether the consumer exposure to these fragrances is low or high, these levels were compared with measured air concentrations of diisocyanates, known human respiratory sensitizers. This comparison showed that consumer exposure from air fresheners to D-limonene, linalool, and isoeugenol is considerably lower than occupational exposure to diisocyanates. By combing this knowledge on sensitizing potency with the much lower exposure compared to diisocyanates it seems highly unlikely that isoeugenol can induce respiratory sensitization in consumers using air fresheners.

  1. Increased sensitivity to positive social stimuli in monozygotic twins at risk of bipolar vs. unipolar disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærsgaard, S; Meluken, I; Kessing, L V

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Abnormalities in affective cognition are putative endophenotypes for bipolar and unipolar disorders but it is unclear whether some abnormalities are disorder-specific. We therefore investigated affective cognition in monozygotic twins at familial risk of bipolar disorder relative...... to those at risk of unipolar disorder and to low-risk twins. METHODS: Seventy monozygotic twins with a co-twin history of bipolar disorder (n = 11), of unipolar disorder (n = 38) or without co-twin history of affective disorder (n = 21) were included. Variables of interest were recognition of and vigilance...... to emotional faces, emotional reactivity and -regulation in social scenarios and non-affective cognition. RESULTS: Twins at familial risk of bipolar disorder showed increased recognition of low to moderate intensity of happy facial expressions relative to both unipolar disorder high-risk twins and low...

  2. Reducing Production Basis Risk through Rainfall Intensity Frequency (RIF) Indexes: Global Sensitivity Analysis' Implication on Policy Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus; Huffaker, Ray; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael

    2016-04-01

    The weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions with swift compensation at affordable premium thanks to its minimal adverse selection and moral hazard. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing causes the presence of "production basis risk" that the selected weather indexes and their thresholds do not correspond to actual damages. To reduce basis risk without additional data collection cost, we propose the use of rain intensity and frequency as indexes as it could offer better protection at the lower premium by avoiding basis risk-strike trade-off inherent in the total rainfall index. We present empirical evidences and modeling results that even under the similar cumulative rainfall and temperature environment, yield can significantly differ especially for drought sensitive crops. We further show that deriving the trigger level and payoff function from regression between historical yield and total rainfall data may pose significant basis risk owing to their non-unique relationship in the insured range of rainfall. Lastly, we discuss the design of index insurance in terms of contract specifications based on the results from global sensitivity analysis.

  3. Categorizing threat : building and using a generic threat matrix.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodard, Laura; Veitch, Cynthia K.; Thomas, Sherry Reede; Duggan, David Patrick

    2007-09-01

    The key piece of knowledge necessary for building defenses capable of withstanding or surviving cyber and kinetic attacks is an understanding of the capabilities posed by threats to a government, function, or system. With the number of threats continuing to increase, it is no longer feasible to enumerate the capabilities of all known threats and then build defenses based on those threats that are considered, at the time, to be the most relevant. Exacerbating the problem for critical infrastructure entities is the fact that the majority of detailed threat information for higher-level threats is held in classified status and is not available for general use, such as the design of defenses and the development of mitigation strategies. To reduce the complexity of analyzing threat, the threat space must first be reduced. This is achieved by taking the continuous nature of the threat space and creating an abstraction that allows the entire space to be grouped, based on measurable attributes, into a small number of distinctly different levels. The work documented in this report is an effort to create such an abstraction.

  4. Specifically altered brain responses to threat in generalized anxiety disorder relative to social anxiety disorder and panic disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Buff

    2016-01-01

    Conclusion: The findings present the first evidence for GAD-specific neural correlates of hyper-responsive threat processing, possibly reflecting exaggerated threat sensitivity, maladaptive appraisal and attention-allocation processes.

  5. Sex Differences in High Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein in Subjects with Risk Factors of Metabolic Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinicius Pacheco Garcia

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS is associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP is a prototypic marker of inflammation usually increased in MetS. Women with MetS-related diseases present higher hsCRP levels than men with MetS-related diseases, suggesting sex differences in inflammatory markers. However, it is unclear whether serum hsCRP levels are already increased in men and/or women with MetS risk factors and without overt diseases or under pharmacological treatment. Objective: To determine the impact of the number of MetS risk factors on serum hsCRP levels in women and men. Methods One hundred and eighteen subjects (70 men and 48 women; 36 ± 1 years were divided into four groups according to the number of MetS risk factors: healthy group (CT; no risk factors, MetS ≤ 2, MetS = 3, and MetS ≥ 4. Blood was drawn after 12 hours of fasting for measurement of biochemical variables and hsCRP levels, which were determined by immunoturbidimetric assay. Results: The groups with MetS risk factors presented higher serum hsCRP levels when compared with the CT group (p 0.05. The best linear regression model to explain the association between MetS risk factors and hsCRP levels included waist circumference and HDL cholesterol (r = 0.40, p < 0.01. Women with MetS risk factors presented higher hsCRP levels when compared with men (psex < 0.01. Conclusions: Despite the absence of overt diseases and pharmacological treatment, subjects with MetS risk factors already presented increased hsCRP levels, which were significantly higher in women than men at similar conditions.

  6. [Weight parameters of water quality impact and risk grade determination of water environmental sensitive spots in Jiashan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Rong-Rong; Pang, Yong; Zhang, Qian; Chen, Ke; Sun, Ming-Yuan

    2012-07-01

    For the safety of the water environment in Jiashan county in Zhejiang Province, one-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality models are established based on three large-scale monitoring of hydrology and water quality in Jiashan county, three water environmental sensitive spots including Hongqitang dam Chijia hydrological station and Luxie pond are selected to investigate weight parameters of water quality impact and risk grade determination. Results indicate as follows (1) Internal pollution impact in Jiashan areas was greater than the external, the average weight parameters of internal chemical oxygen demand (COD) pollution is 55.3%, internal ammonia nitrogen (NH(4+)-N) is 67.4%, internal total phosphor (TP) is 63.1%. Non-point pollution impact in Jiashan areas was greater than point pollution impact, the average weight parameters of non-point COD pollutions is 53.7%, non-point NH(4+)-N is 65.9%, non-point TP is 57.8%. (2) The risk of Hongqitang dam and Chijia hydrological station are in the middle risk. The risk of Luxie pond is also in the middle risk in August, and in April and December the risk of Luxie pond is low. The strategic decision will be suggested to guarantee water environment security and social and economic security in the study.

  7. Para-phenylenediamine and allergic sensitization : risk modification by N-acetyltransferase 1 and 2 genotypes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bloemeke, B.; Brans, R.; Coenraads, P. -J.; Dickel, H.; Bruckner, T.; Hein, D. W.; Heesen, M.; Merk, H. -F.; Kawakubo, Y.; Blomeke, B.

    Background Para-phenylenediamine (PPD) is a common contact sensitizer causing allergic contact dermatitis, a major skin problem. As PPD may need activation to become immunogenic, the balance between activation and/or detoxification processes may influence an individual's susceptibility. PPD is

  8. Predominant Api m 10 sensitization as risk factor for treatment failure in honey bee venom immunotherapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frick, Marcel; Fischer, Jörg; Helbing, Arthur

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Component resolution recently identified distinct sensitization profiles in honey bee venom (HBV) allergy, some of which were dominated by specific IgE to Api m 3 and/or Api m 10, which have been reported to be underrepresented in therapeutic HBV preparations. OBJECTIVE: We performed...... responders and nonresponders regarding levels of IgE sensitization to Api m 1, Api m 2, Api m 3, and Api m 5. In contrast, Api m 10 specific IgE was moderately but significantly increased in nonresponders. Predominant Api m 10 sensitization (>50% of specific IgE to HBV) was the best discriminator...... (specificity, 95%; sensitivity, 25%) with an odds ratio of 8.444 (2.127-33.53; P = .0013) for treatment failure. Some but not all therapeutic HBV preparations displayed a lack of Api m 10, whereas Api m 1 and Api m 3 immunoreactivity was comparable to that of crude HBV. In line with this, significant Api m 10...

  9. A Bayesian approach to probabilistic sensitivity analysis in structured benefit-risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waddingham, Ed; Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Nixon, Richard; Ashby, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative decision models such as multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can be used in benefit-risk assessment to formalize trade-offs between benefits and risks, providing transparency to the assessment process. There is however no well-established method for propagating uncertainty of treatment effects data through such models to provide a sense of the variability of the benefit-risk balance. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical method that directly models the outcomes observed in randomized placebo-controlled trials and uses this to infer indirect comparisons between competing active treatments. The resulting treatment effects estimates are suitable for use within the MCDA setting, and it is possible to derive the distribution of the overall benefit-risk balance through Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The method is illustrated using a case study of natalizumab for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  10. Managing Sensitive Information: DOD Can More Effectively Reduce the Risk of Classification Errors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    D'Agostino, Davi M; Borseth, Ann; Fenton, Mattias; Hatton, Adam; Hills, Barbara; Keefer, David; Mayfield, David; Reid, Jim; Richardson, Terry; Schwartz, Marc

    2006-01-01

    ...) information security program are increasing the risk of misclassification. DoD's information security program is decentralized to the DoD component level, and the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence (OUSD...

  11. Threats, protests greet conference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struck, D

    1994-09-04

    In preparation for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, Egypt has deployed 14,000 police to protect participants from threatened violence. The Vatican has joined forces with Muslim fundamentalists to condemn the conference as a vehicle for imposing Western ideals, particularly abortion, on Third world countries. In addition, the opposition is raising the specter of a descent of homosexuals onto Cairo and Muslim fundamentalists have threatened to murder Western representatives. A suit filed by Islamic lawyers, aimed at stopping the conference, failed. Sudan and Saudi Arabia plan to boycott the conference, and it remains uncertain whether Libya will be represented. Conference organizers have not been deterred by the threats and note that the controversy has drawn public attention to the central issues under debate.

  12. Nuclear Threats and Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garry Jacobs

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This article presents highlights and insights from the International Conference on “Nuclear Threats and Security” organized by the World Academy of Art and Science in association with the European Leadership Network and the Dag Hammarskjöld University College of International Relations and Diplomacy and sponsored by NATO at the Inter-University Centre, Dubrovnik on September 14-16, 2012. The conference examined important issues related to nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, the legality of nuclear weapons and their use, illicit trade in nuclear materials, the dangers of nuclear terrorism, nuclear- and cyber-security. Papers and video recordings of the major presentations and session summaries can be found here.

  13. Relationships between reward sensitivity, risk-taking and family history of alcoholism during an interactive competitive fMRI task.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haley L Yarosh

    Full Text Available Individuals with a positive family history for alcoholism (FHP have shown differences from family-history-negative (FHN individuals in the neural correlates of reward processing. FHP, compared to FHN individuals, demonstrate relatively diminished ventral striatal activation during anticipation of monetary rewards, and the degree of ventral striatal activation shows an inverse correlation with specific impulsivity measures in alcohol-dependent individuals. Rewards in socially interactive contexts relate importantly to addictive propensities, yet have not been examined with respect to how their neural underpinnings relate to impulsivity-related measures. Here we describe impulsivity measures in FHN and FHP individuals as they relate to a socially interactive functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI task.Forty FHP and 29 FHN subjects without histories of Axis-I disorders completed a socially interactive Domino task during functional magnetic resonance imaging and completed self-report and behavioral impulsivity-related assessments.FHP compared to FHN individuals showed higher scores (p = .004 on one impulsivity-related factor relating to both compulsivity (Padua Inventory and reward/punishment sensitivity (Sensitivity to Punishment/Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire. Multiple regression analysis within a reward-related network revealed a correlation between risk-taking (involving another impulsivity-related factor, the Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART and right ventral striatum activation under reward >punishment contrast (p<0.05 FWE corrected in the social task.Behavioral risk-taking scores may be more closely associated with neural correlates of reward responsiveness in socially interactive contexts than are FH status or impulsivity-related self-report measures. These findings suggest that risk-taking assessments be examined further in socially interactive settings relevant to addictive behaviors.

  14. Protection of Cultural Heritage in Urban Areas during Peace and Conflict Times from Threats to Risk Preparedness as a Shared Responsibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimino, C.

    2013-07-01

    In times of economic hardship, the support given by specialized civil society organisations to public institutions in the protection of cultural heritage has often proved very useful, and there is evidence that their contribution is essential in times of conflicts and natural disasters, if well-designed plans and measures are organized efficiently, thoroughly tested and properly implemented. The 1954 Hague Convention for the Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict (HC), its two Protocols and other international juridical instruments address these situations since decades, however, they remained widely not-applied in absence of proper regulatory instruments. In 2004, the Second Protocol of the Hague Convention (1999HP) entered into force and the Committee of the State Parties was formed. It became clear that a new trend started when, in 2009, draft Guidelines for the implementation of the 1999HP were issued. Meanwhile, WATCH, in partnership with the Council of the United Municipalitities of Jbail (Lebanon) and the Head of the Municipality of Mtskheta (Georgia) prepared a project proposal aimed to set a precedent in the governance of urban sites that are registered in the World Heritage List which are at risk of armed conflict. The project War Free World Heritage Listed Cities http://www.warfreeheritage.net/ was co-financed in 2010 with a grant within the framework of the EC CIUDAD programme and it is currently at an advanced level of implementation. This presentation will focus on achievements and contingencies faced during implementation as well as lessons learned that could be surely useful for pers pective applicants.

  15. Functional effectiveness of threat appeals in exercise promotion messages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Mairesse

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available As more than 70% of individuals in Western societies can be categorized as sedentary and inactivity has been recognized to lead to a series of serious physical and psychological disorders, the importance of physical activity promotion is ever more emphasized. Many social marketing campaigns use threat (or fear appeals to promote healthy behaviors. Theoretical models, such as the Extended Parallel Process Model integrate concepts as 'perceived threat' and 'perceived efficacy' to explain how such messages operate and can cause diverse behavioral reactions. It is however still not entirely clear how these different aspects are valuated and combined to determine desired versus undesired response behaviors in individuals. In a functional integration task, threat-appeal based exercise promotion messages varying in psychological threat and efficacy content were shown to sedentary employees in order to assess how they affect their intention to engage in physical exercise. Our results show that individuals can be categorized in 4 different clusters depending on the way they valuate threat and efficacy appeals: i.e. individuals sensitive to both types of cues, those sensitive to either the threat or the efficacy component in the message and those insensitive to either one of them. As different segments of receivers of the message react differently to threat and efficacy combinations, it is concluded that different approaches to designing effective mass media campaigns may be required for effective exercise promotion.

  16. Classroom-Based Phonological Sensitivity Intervention (PSI) Using a Narrative Platform: An Experimental Study of First Graders at Risk for a Reading Disability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Michaela J.; Saxon, Terrill F.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of classroom-based phonological sensitivity intervention (PSI) using a narrative platform for children in first grade who are at risk for a reading disability. Participants consisted of 59 first graders identified as at risk for later reading impairments. At-risk designation was dictated by…

  17. Example-Dependent Cost-Sensitive Classification with Applications in Financial Risk Modeling and Marketing Analytics

    OpenAIRE

    Correa Bahnsen, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    Several real-world binary classification problems are example-dependent cost-sensitive in nature, where the costs due to misclassification vary between examples and not only within classes. However, standard binary classification methods do not take these costs into account, and assume a constant cost of misclassification errors. This approach is not realistic in many real-world applications. For example in credit card fraud detection, failing to detect a fraudulent transaction may have an ec...

  18. Insider Threats: DOD Should Strengthen Management and Guidance to Protect Classified Information and Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    2011). Insiders have an advantage over others who may want to harm an organization because insiders may have an awareness of their...process currently includes threat assessments, a risk-indicator matrix , and a risk assessment to prompt organizations to consider threats and risk to...is to oversee departmental capabilities and resources to counter insider threats, and make recommendations on program improvements and resources

  19. Risk of beryllium sensitization in a low-exposed former nuclear weapons cohort from the Cold War era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikulski, Marek A; Leonard, Stephanie A; Sanderson, Wayne T; Hartley, Patrick G; Sprince, Nancy L; Fuortes, Laurence J

    2011-03-01

    The nuclear weapons industry has long been known as a source of beryllium exposure. A total of 1,004 former workers from a nuclear weapons assembly site in the Midwest were screened for sensitization to beryllium (BeS). The screenings were part of the Department of Energy (DOE) Former Worker Program established in 1996. Twenty-three (2.3%) workers were found sensitized to beryllium and this prevalence was comparable to other DOE sites. Occasional, direct exposure to beryllium through machining and grinding of copper-beryllium (Cu-Be) 2% alloy tools was found to increase the risk of sensitization compared to background exposure (OR = 3.83; 95% CI: 1.04-14.03) with a statistically significant trend (P = 0.03) revealing that particular jobs are associated with sensitization. Exposure potential in this study was estimated based on job titles and not personal exposure information. These results confirm the need to screen workers using beryllium alloy tools in other industries and for consideration of altering work practices. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  20. Risk evaluations of aging: Procedures guide for an age-dependent PSA with emphasis on prioritization and sensitivity studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    Based on the previous work which has been performed in the project, a procedures guide is being developed for carrying out an age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for evaluating the core damage frequency with aging effects explicitly treated. A PSA is basically a Level 1 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The emphasis of the guide is on prioritization and sensitivity studies. Focus is also on active components although consideration of aging effects in passive components is also treated. The guide is intended to become a NUREG/CR and is the first of three volumes which are being developed. The following topics with demonstrations and applications are described in the presentation: (1) the age-dependent PSA versus the standard PSA; (2) component reliability models used in an age-dependent PSA; (3) approaches for transforming a PSA into an age-dependent PSA; (4) application of an age-dependent PSA; (5) using a PSA to evaluate the risk effects from aging passive components; (6) evaluation of the risk importance of passive components; (7) prioritizations of aging contributors; (8) evaluations of test and maintenance effectiveness; and (9) sensitivity studies and uncertainty analyses of aging effects

  1. Age-adjusted high-sensitivity troponin T cut-off value for risk stratification of pulmonary embolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaeberich, Anja; Seeber, Valerie; Jiménez, David; Kostrubiec, Maciej; Dellas, Claudia; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Pruszczyk, Piotr; Konstantinides, Stavros; Lankeit, Mareike

    2015-05-01

    High-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) helps in identifying pulmonary embolism patients at low risk of an adverse outcome. In 682 normotensive pulmonary embolism patients we investigate whether an optimised hsTnT cut-off value and adjustment for age improve the identification of patients at elevated risk. Overall, 25 (3.7%) patients had an adverse 30-day outcome. The established hsTnT cut-off value of 14 pg·mL(-1) retained its high prognostic value (OR (95% CI) 16.64 (2.24-123.74); p=0.006) compared with the cut-off value of 33 pg·mL(-1) calculated by receiver operating characteristic analysis (7.14 (2.64-19.26); pvalue of 45 pg·mL(-1) but not the established cut-off value of 14 pg·mL(-1) predicted an adverse outcome. An age-adjusted hsTnT cut-off value (≥14 pg·mL(-1) for patients aged risk (12.4% adverse outcome). Risk assessment of normotensive pulmonary embolism patients was improved by the introduction of an age-adjusted hsTnT cut-off value. A three-step approach helped identify patients at higher risk of an adverse outcome who might benefit from advanced therapy. Copyright ©ERS 2015.

  2. Sensitivity analysis of the meteorological model applied in the German risk study (DRS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogt, S.

    1982-01-01

    In the first part of this paper it will be shown how the influence of uncertainties in estimation on risk statements is determined using methods of the probability theory. In particular the parameters contained in the dispersion model are studied more thoroughly. In the second part, based on the knowledge gathered in the previous investigations, new and more realistic best estimate values will be proposed for four selected parameters to be used in future work. The modifications in the risk statements by these new parameter values will be commented upon

  3. Affective state influences perception by affecting decision parameters underlying bias and sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Spencer K; Zhang, Xuan; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

    2012-08-01

    Studies of the effect of affect on perception often show consistent directional effects of a person's affective state on perception. Unpleasant emotions have been associated with a "locally focused" style of stimulus evaluation, and positive emotions with a "globally focused" style. Typically, however, studies of affect and perception have not been conducted under the conditions of perceptual uncertainty and behavioral risk inherent to perceptual judgments outside the laboratory. We investigated the influence of perceivers' experienced affect (valence and arousal) on the utility of social threat perception by combining signal detection theory and behavioral economics. We compared 3 perceptual decision environments that systematically differed with respect to factors that underlie uncertainty and risk: the base rate of threat, the costs of incorrect identification threat, and the perceptual similarity of threats and nonthreats. We found that no single affective state yielded the best performance on the threat perception task across the 3 environments. Unpleasant valence promoted calibration of response bias to base rate and costs, high arousal promoted calibration of perceptual sensitivity to perceptual similarity, and low arousal was associated with an optimal adjustment of bias to sensitivity. However, the strength of these associations was conditional upon the difficulty of attaining optimal bias and high sensitivity, such that the effect of the perceiver's affective state on perception differed with the cause and/or level of uncertainty and risk.

  4. Protectiveness of Species Sensitivity Distribution Hazard Concentrations for Acute Toxicity Used in Endangered Species Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    A primary objective of threatened and endangered species conservation is to ensure that chemical contaminants and other stressors do not adversely affect listed species. Assessments of the ecological risks of chemical exposures to listed species often rely on the use of surrogate...

  5. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

  6. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan E. Chamberlain

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds. For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community.

  7. Sensitivity of UK butterflies to local climatic extremes: which life stages are most at risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott Long, Osgur; Warren, Rachel; Price, Jeff; Brereton, Tom M; Botham, Marc S; Franco, Aldina M A

    2017-01-01

    There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species (n = 41) over a 37-year period. The study investigated the sensitivity of butterflies to four extremes (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat and extreme cold), identified at the site level, across each species' life stages. Variations in the vulnerability of butterflies at the site level were also compared based on three life-history traits (voltinism, habitat requirement and range). This is the first study to examine the effects of ECEs at the site level across all life stages of a butterfly, identifying sensitive life stages and unravelling the role life-history traits play in species sensitivity to ECEs. Butterfly population changes were found to be primarily driven by temperature extremes. Extreme heat was detrimental during overwintering periods and beneficial during adult periods and extreme cold had opposite impacts on both of these life stages. Previously undocumented detrimental effects were identified for extreme precipitation during the pupal life stage for univoltine species. Generalists were found to have significantly more negative associations with ECEs than specialists. With future projections of warmer, wetter winters and more severe weather events, UK butterflies could come under severe pressure given the findings of this study. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

  8. Threat Assessment in College Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornell, Dewey

    2010-01-01

    In 2007, the landscape of campus safety changed abruptly with the Virginia Tech shooting and the subsequent wave of anonymous threats in colleges across the country. In response to the tragedy, the Virginia state legislature mandated that every public institution of higher education establish a "threat assessment team." Both the FBI and the U.S.…

  9. Bio-threat microparticle simulants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farquar, George Roy; Leif, Roald N

    2012-10-23

    A bio-threat simulant that includes a carrier and DNA encapsulated in the carrier. Also a method of making a simulant including the steps of providing a carrier and encapsulating DNA in the carrier to produce the bio-threat simulant.

  10. Bio-threat microparticle simulants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farquar, George Roy; Leif, Roald

    2014-09-16

    A bio-threat simulant that includes a carrier and DNA encapsulated in the carrier. Also a method of making a simulant including the steps of providing a carrier and encapsulating DNA in the carrier to produce the bio-threat simulant.

  11. Bomb Threat Assessments. Fact Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunkel, Ronald F.

    2010-01-01

    This information provides a brief, summary outline of how investigators should assess anonymous bomb threats at schools. Applying these principles may help administrators and law enforcement personnel accurately assess the viability and credibility of a threat and appropriately gauge their response. Any credible evidence provided by teachers or…

  12. Key issues for the development and application of the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) model for ecological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Fu-Liu; Li, Yi-Long; Wang, Yin

    2015-01-01

    The species sensitivity distribution (SSD) model is one of the most commonly used methods for ecological risk assessment based on the potentially affected fraction (PAF) of and the combined PAF (msPAF) as quantitative indicators. There are usually four steps for the development of SSD models...... and their applications: (1) obtain the toxicity data of the pollutants; (2) fit the SSD curves; (3) calculate the potentially affected fractions (PAFs) of the individual pollutants for the ecological risk assessment of an individual pollutant; and (4) calculate the accumulated multi-substance potentially affected...... collected from the ecotoxicity database, (3) how to transform the acute toxicity data into chronic data, (4) how to best fit the toxicity data, (5) how to calculate the msPAF of multiple pollutants, and (6) how to determine the uncertainty of the SSD model”. In response to these questions, several...

  13. Frontal, Striatal, and Medial Temporal Sensitivity to Value Distinguishes Risk-Taking from Risk-Aversive Older Adults during Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Joshua O S; Su, Yu-Shiang; Tang, Yong-Jheng; McCarrey, Anna C; Tereshchenko, Alexander; Elkins, Wendy; Resnick, Susan M

    2016-12-07

    Aging compromises the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas of the reward system, impeding accurate value representation and feedback processing critical for decision making. However, substantial variability characterizes age-related effects on the brain so that some older individuals evince clear neurocognitive declines whereas others are spared. Moreover, the functional correlates of normative individual differences in older-adult value-based decision making remain unclear. We performed a functional magnetic resonance imaging study in 173 human older adults during a lottery choice task in which costly to more desirable stakes were depicted using low to high expected values (EVs) of points. Across trials that varied in EVs, participants decided to accept or decline the offered stakes to maximize total accumulated points. We found that greater age was associated with less optimal decisions, accepting stakes when losses were likely and declining stakes when gains were likely, and was associated with increased frontal activity for costlier stakes. Critically, risk preferences varied substantially across older adults and neural sensitivity to EVs in the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas dissociated risk-aversive from risk-taking individuals. Specifically, risk-averters increased neural responses to increasing EVs as stakes became more desirable, whereas risk-takers increased neural responses with decreasing EV as stakes became more costly. Risk preference also modulated striatal responses during feedback with risk-takers showing more positive responses to gains compared with risk-averters. Our findings highlight the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas as key neural loci in which individual differences differentially affect value-based decision-making ability in older adults. Frontal, striatal, and medial temporal functions implicated in value-based decision processing of rewards and costs undergo substantial age-related changes. However, age

  14. Psychoanalysis and the nuclear threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, H.B.; Jacobs, D.; Rubin, L.J.

    1988-01-01

    {ital Psychoanalysis and the Nuclear Threat} provides coverage of the dynamic and clinical considerations that follow from life in the nuclear age. Of special clinical interest are chapters dealing with the developmental consequences of the nuclear threat in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, and those exploring the technical issues raised by the occurrence in analytic and psychotherapeutic hours of material related to the nuclear threat. Additional chapters bring a psychoanalytic perspective to bear on such issues as the need to have enemies, silence as the real crime, love, work, and survival in the nuclear age, the relationship of the nuclear threat to issues of mourning and melancholia, apocalyptic fantasies, the paranoid process, considerations of the possible impact of gender on the nuclear threat, and the application of psychoanalytic thinking to nuclear arms strategy. Finally, the volume includes the first case report in the English language---albeit a brief psychotherapy---involving the treatment of a Hiroshima survivor.

  15. Robust Coordination of Autonomous Systems through Risk-sensitive, Model-based Programming and Execution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-09

    execution to halt immediately, leading to conservatism . 5.2 Searching for optimal, risk-bounded cRMPL pro- grams Because cRMPL supports programs that...the timing re- quirements with probabilistic guarantees without undue conservatism . 6.1 Problem Statement In field deployment on critical missions, the...the space of potential solution policies in domains with non-destructive constraint violations, leading to conservatism . A CC-POMDP formu- lation, on

  16. Work expectations, cultural sensitivity, schizophrenia, and suicide risk in male patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewine, Richard; Shriner, Brooke

    2009-04-01

    This study examines the relationship between "vocational lost potential" and suicide risk in a mixed sample of severely and persistently mentally ill psychiatric patients. We hypothesized that increased lost potential would be associated with increased suicide risk indicator ratings and that this relationship would be moderated by patients' social class of origin. One hundred sixty-seven psychiatric patients rated a range of clinical symptoms and vocational expectations, as well as providing sociodemographic information including their parents' years of education (used as a proxy for social class of origin). Contrary to our prediction, the results suggest that individuals from higher social class who experience minimal lost potential may be at a higher risk for suicide than their counterparts with maximal lost potential; this is especially true when based on fathers' educational level. In discussing the clinical implications of our findings, we suggest that a subgroup of individuals' vocational success may depend on first addressing the cognitive conflict inherent in the phenomenon of lost potential.

  17. Radon - natural health threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wrixon, Anthony

    1985-01-01

    Natural sources of radiation attract little attention, yet a survey has found radon gas in buildings at levels which put the occupants at some risk. The author wants safety standards set without undue delay. (author)

  18. Risk-taking propensity and sensitivity to punishment in adolescents with attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder symptoms and/or reading disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poon, Kean; Ho, Connie Suk-Han

    2016-01-01

    Many studies reported that adolescents with ADHD/RD more frequently engage in risk-taking behaviors. Very few have examined their risk taking patterns and the impact of their comorbidity. The present study compared the risk-taking propensity, sensitivity to punishment and delinquency outcome in Chinese adolescents with ADHD symptoms (AS) and/or RD using a simulated risk task, the Balloon Analogous Risk Task (BART). Adolescents with AS (n=37), RD (n=35), AS+RD (n=35), and control (n=36) were recruited from local secondary schools. Results showed that adolescents with ADHD, despite their great risk-taking propensity, were sensitive to immediate punishment whereas adolescents with RD were found to display normal risk-taking propensity, yet showed a tendency of being less sensitive to punishment. The comorbidity ADHD+RD group had the highest delinquency score, and exhibited greatest risk taking and least sensitivity to punishment, which provided further support that comorbid condition might have stronger impact on risk taking or even delinquency than the pure groups. The present findings provides a useful picture of the risk taking pattern associated with different groups, allowing for effective matching for future prevention and intervention program. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Direct Economic Flood Damages: the FloodRisk Free and Open-Source Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Mancusi, L.; Cantisani, A.; Perrone, A.

    2017-12-01

    The considerable increase of flood damages in the the past decades has shifted in Europe the attention from protection against floods to managing flood risks. In this context, the expected damages assessment represents a crucial information within the overall flood risk management process. The present paper proposes an open source software, called FloodRisk, that is able to operatively support stakeholders in the decision making processes with a what-if approach by carrying out the rapid assessment of the flood consequences, in terms of direct economic damage and loss of human lives. The evaluation of the damage scenarios, trough the use of the GIS software proposed here, is essential for cost-benefit or multi-criteria analysis of risk mitigation alternatives. However, considering that quantitative assessment of flood damages scenarios is characterized by intrinsic uncertainty, a scheme has been developed to identify and quantify the role of the input parameters in the total uncertainty of flood loss model application in urban areas with mild terrain and complex topography. By the concept of parallel models, the contribution of different module and input parameters to the total uncertainty is quantified. The results of the present case study have exhibited a high epistemic uncertainty on the damage estimation module and, in particular, on the type and form of the utilized damage functions, which have been adapted and transferred from different geographic and socio-economic contexts because there aren't depth-damage functions that are specifically developed for Italy. Considering that uncertainty and sensitivity depend considerably on local characteristics, the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimate is reduced by introducing additional information into the risk analysis. In the light of the obtained results, it is evident the need to produce and disseminate (open) data to develop micro-scale vulnerability curves. Moreover, the urgent need to push

  20. Toddlers’ Duration of Attention towards Putative Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiel, Elizabeth J.; Buss, Kristin A.

    2010-01-01

    Although individual differences in reactions to novelty in the toddler years have been consistently linked to risk for developing anxious behavior, toddlers’ attention towards a novel, putatively threatening stimulus while in the presence of other enjoyable activities has rarely been examined as a precursor to such risk. The current study examined how attention towards an angry-looking gorilla mask in a room with alternative opportunities for play in 24-month-old toddlers predicted social inhibition when children entered kindergarten. Analyses examined attention to threat above and beyond and in interaction with both proximity to the mask and fear of novelty observed in other situations. Attention to threat interacted with proximity to the mask to predict social inhibition, such that attention to threat most strongly predicted social inhibition when toddlers stayed furthest from the mask. This relation occurred above and beyond the predictive relation between fear of novelty and social inhibition. Results are discussed within the broader literature of anxiety development and attentional processes in young children. PMID:21373365

  1. Assessing the Risk of Secondary Transfer Via Fingerprint Brush Contamination Using Enhanced Sensitivity DNA Analysis Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolivar, Paula-Andrea; Tracey, Martin; McCord, Bruce

    2016-01-01

    Experiments were performed to determine the extent of cross-contamination of DNA resulting from secondary transfer due to fingerprint brushes used on multiple items of evidence. Analysis of both standard and low copy number (LCN) STR was performed. Two different procedures were used to enhance sensitivity, post-PCR cleanup and increased cycle number. Under standard STR typing procedures, some additional alleles were produced that were not present in the controls or blanks; however, there was insufficient data to include the contaminant donor as a contributor. Inclusion of the contaminant donor did occur for one sample using post-PCR cleanup. Detection of the contaminant donor occurred for every replicate of the 31 cycle amplifications; however, using LCN interpretation recommendations for consensus profiles, only one sample would include the contaminant donor. Our results indicate that detection of secondary transfer of DNA can occur through fingerprint brush contamination and is enhanced using LCN-DNA methods. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  2. Improving ecological risk assessment by including bioavailability into species sensitivity distributions: An example for plants exposed to nickel in soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Semenzin, Elena; Temminghoff, Erwin J.M.; Marcomini, Antonio

    2007-01-01

    The variability of species sensitivity distribution (SSD) due to contaminant bioavailability in soil was explored by using nickel as metal of concern. SSDs of toxicity test results of Avena sativa L. originating from different soils and expressed as total content and available (0.01 M CaCl 2 ) extractable concentration were compared to SSDs for terrestrial plants derived from literature toxicity data. Also the 'free' nickel (Ni 2+ ) concentration was calculated and compared. The results demonstrated that SSDs based on total nickel content highly depend on the experimental conditions set up for toxicity testing (i.e. selected soil and pH value) and thus on metal bioavailability in soil, resulting in an unacceptable uncertainty for ecological risk estimation. The use in SSDs of plant toxicity data expressed as 0.01 M CaCl 2 extractable metal strongly reduced the uncertainty in the SSD curve and thus can improve the ERA procedure remarkably by taking bioavailability into account. - The use of bioavailability toxicity data can improve species sensitivity distribution (SSD) curves and thus ecological risk assessment (ERA)

  3. Potential risks and threats to international security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iurie RICHICINSCHI

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Today we can ascertain with certainty that in the early part of the 21st century, the challenges addressed to the current security environment tend to become increasingly diffuse, less predictable and multidimensional, being both a feature of external security, as well as an internal one and, of course, becoming an indispensable part of security policies and strategies. Therefore, the need for international cooperation as a foundation for the stability of the security environment has increased. It should provide a sense of trust and peace by ensuring the absence of danger both for the individual and for the community to which he belongs.

  4. Threat Based Risk Assessment for Enterprise Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-15

    devastating insider attacks, Edward Snowden exfiltrated 1.7 million documents from the National Security Agency [1]. That same year, the security company...Weller-Fahy, and Tamara Yu. References 1. G. Greenwald, No Place to Hide: Edward Snowden , the NSA, and the U.S. Surveillance State. London: Hamish

  5. Bead-based competitive fluorescence immunoassay for sensitive and rapid diagnosis of cyanotoxin risk in drinking water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hye-Weon; Jang, Am; Kim, Lan Hee; Kim, Sung-Jo; Kim, In S

    2011-09-15

    Due to the increased occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms and their toxins in drinking water sources, effective management based on a sensitive and rapid analytical method is in high demand for security of safe water sources and environmental human health. Here, a competitive fluorescence immunoassay of microcystin-LR (MCYST-LR) is developed in an attempt to improve the sensitivity, analysis time, and ease-of-manipulation of analysis. To serve this aim, a bead-based suspension assay was introduced based on two major sensing elements: an antibody-conjugated quantum dot (QD) detection probe and an antigen-immobilized magnetic bead (MB) competitor. The assay was composed of three steps: the competitive immunological reaction of QD detection probes against analytes and MB competitors, magnetic separation and washing, and the optical signal generation of QDs. The fluorescence intensity was found to be inversely proportional to the MCYST-LR concentration. Under optimized conditions, the proposed assay performed well for the identification and quantitative analysis of MCYST-LR (within 30 min in the range of 0.42-25 μg/L, with a limit of detection of 0.03 μg/L). It is thus expected that this enhanced assay can contribute both to the sensitive and rapid diagnosis of cyanotoxin risk in drinking water and effective management procedures.

  6. Cyber Conflicts as a New Global Threat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Kosenkov

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an attempt is made to analyze the potential threats and consequences of cyber conflicts and, in particular, the risks of a global cyber conflict. The material is based on a comprehensive analysis of the nature of cyber conflict and its elements from both technical and societal points of view. The approach used in the paper considers the societal component as an essential part of cyber conflicts, allowing basics of cyber conflicts often disregarded by researchers and the public to be highlighted. Finally, the conclusion offers an opportunity to consider cyber conflict as the most advanced form of modern warfare, which imposes the most serious threat and whose effect could be comparable to weapons of mass destruction.

  7. Self-Models and Relationship Threat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Máire B. Ford

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated a key claim of risk regulation theory, namely, that psychological internalizing of a relationship threat will serve as a mediator of the link between self-models (self-esteem and attachment anxiety and relationship responses (moving closer to a partner vs. distancing from a partner. Participants (N = 101 received feedback that threatened their current romantic relationship (or no feedback and then completed measures of internal–external focus, relationship closeness–distancing, and acceptance–rejection of the feedback. Results showed that participants with negative self-models responded to the relationship threat by becoming more internally focused and by distancing from their partners, whereas those with positive self-models became more externally focused and moved closer to their partners. Mediation analyses indicated that the link between self-models and relationship closeness–distancing was partially explained by internal focus.

  8. Exciting fear in adolescence: Does pubertal development alter threat processing?

    OpenAIRE

    Spielberg, JM; Olino, TM; Forbes, EE; Dahl, RE

    2014-01-01

    Adolescent development encompasses an ostensible paradox in threat processing. Risk taking increases dramatically after the onset of puberty, contributing to a 200% increase in mortality. Yet, pubertal maturation is associated with increased reactivity in threat-avoidance systems. In the first part of this paper we propose a heuristic model of adolescent affective development that may help to reconcile aspects of this paradox, which focuses on hypothesized pubertal increases in the capacity t...

  9. Physician office readiness for managing Internet security threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshavjee, K; Pairaudeau, N; Bhanji, A

    2006-01-01

    Internet security threats are evolving toward more targeted and focused attacks.Increasingly, organized crime is involved and they are interested in identity theft. Physicians who use Internet in their practice are at risk for being invaded. We studied 16 physician practices in Southern Ontario for their readiness to manage internet security threats. Overall, physicians have an over-inflated sense of preparedness. Security practices such as maintaining a firewall and conducting regular virus checks were not consistently done.

  10. Computer security threats faced by small businesses in Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Hutchings, Alice

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, an overview is provided of computer security threats faced by small businesses. Having identified the threats, the implications for small business owners are described, along with countermeasures that can be adopted to prevent incidents from occurring. The results of the Australian Business Assessment of Computer User Security (ABACUS) survey, commissioned by the Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC), are drawn upon to identify key risks (Challice 2009; Richards 2009). Addi...

  11. Pre-gravid physical activity and reduced risk of glucose intolerance in pregnancy: the role of insulin sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retnakaran, Ravi; Qi, Ying; Sermer, Mathew; Connelly, Philip W; Zinman, Bernard; Hanley, Anthony J G

    2009-04-01

    Pre-gravid physical activity has been associated with a reduced risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), although neither the types of exercise nor the physiologic mechanisms underlying this protective effect have been well-studied. Thus, we sought to study the relationships between types of pre-gravid physical activity and metabolic parameters in pregnancy, including glucose tolerance, insulin sensitivity and beta-cell function. A total of 851 women underwent a glucose challenge test (GCT) and a 3-h oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in late pregnancy, yielding four glucose tolerance groups: (i) GDM; (ii) gestational impaired glucose tolerance (GIGT); (iii) abnormal GCT with normal glucose tolerance on OGTT (abnormal GCT NGT); and (iv) normal GCT with NGT on OGTT (normal GCT NGT). Pre-gravid physical activity was assessed using the Baecke questionnaire, which measures (i) total physical activity and (ii) its three component domains: work, nonsport leisure-time, and vigorous/sports activity. Glucose tolerance status improved across increasing quartiles of pre-gravid total physical activity (P = 0.0244). Whereas neither work nor nonsport leisure-time activity differed between glucose tolerance groups, pre-gravid vigorous/sports activity was significantly higher in women with normal GCT NGT compared to women with (i) abnormal GCT NGT (P = 0.0018) (ii) GIGT (P = 0.0025), and (iii) GDM (P = 0.0044). In particular, vigorous/sports activity correlated with insulin sensitivity (measured by IS(OGTT)) (r = 0.21, P sports activity emerged as a significant independent predictor of IS(OGTT) in pregnancy (t = 4.97, P sports activity is associated with a reduced risk of glucose intolerance in pregnancy, an effect likely mediated by enhanced insulin sensitivity.

  12. Variation In Accountable Care Organization Spending And Sensitivity To Risk Adjustment: Implications For Benchmarking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sherri; Zaslavsky, Alan M; McWilliams, J Michael

    2016-03-01

    Spending targets (or benchmarks) for accountable care organizations (ACOs) participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program must be set carefully to encourage program participation while achieving fiscal goals and minimizing unintended consequences, such as penalizing ACOs for serving sicker patients. Recently proposed regulatory changes include measures to make benchmarks more similar for ACOs in the same area with different historical spending levels. We found that ACOs vary widely in how their spending levels compare with those of other local providers after standard case-mix adjustments. Additionally adjusting for survey measures of patient health meaningfully reduced the variation in differences between ACO spending and local average fee-for-service spending, but substantial variation remained, which suggests that differences in care efficiency between ACOs and local non-ACO providers vary widely. Accordingly, measures to equilibrate benchmarks between high- and low-spending ACOs--such as setting benchmarks to risk-adjusted average fee-for-service spending in an area--should be implemented gradually to maintain participation by ACOs with high spending. Use of survey information also could help mitigate perverse incentives for risk selection and upcoding and limit unintended consequences of new benchmarking methodologies for ACOs serving sicker patients. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  13. Suppression of gastric acid increases the risk of developing immunoglobulin E-mediated drug hypersensitivity: human diclofenac sensitization and a murine sensitization model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riemer, A B; Gruber, S; Pali-Schöll, I; Kinaciyan, T; Untersmayr, E; Jensen-Jarolim, E

    2010-03-01

    Hypersensitivity reactions towards non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) are common, although true allergies are detectable only in a subgroup of patients. The current study was prompted by a case observation, where a patient experienced generalized urticaria following his second course of diclofenac and proton pump inhibitor medication, and was found to have diclofenac-specific IgE. During recent years, our group has been investigating the importance of gastric digestion in the development of food allergies, demonstrating anti-acid medication as a risk factor for sensitization against food proteins. Here, we aimed to investigate whether the mechanism of food allergy induction described can also be causative in NSAID allergy, using diclofenac as a paradigm. We subjected BALB/c mice to several oral immunization regimens modelled after the patient's medication intake. Diclofenac was applied with or without gastric acid suppression, in various doses, alone or covalently coupled to albumin, a protein abundant in gastric juices. Immune responses were assessed on the antibody level, and functionally examined by in vitro and in vivo crosslinking assays. Only mice receiving albumin-coupled diclofenac under gastric acid suppression developed anti-diclofenac IgG1 and IgE, whereas no immune responses were induced by the drug alone or without gastric acid suppression. Antibody induction was dose dependent with the group receiving the higher dose of the drug showing sustained anti-diclofenac titres. The antibodies induced triggered basophil degranulation in vitro and positive skin tests in vivo. Gastric acid suppression was found to be a causative mechanism in the induction of IgE-mediated diclofenac allergy.

  14. A DRD4 Gene by Maternal Sensitivity Interaction Predicts Risk for Overweight or Obesity in Two Independent Cohorts of Preschool Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levitan, Robert D.; Jansen, Pauline; Wendland, Barbara; Tiemeier, Henning; Jaddoe, Vincent W.; Silveira, Patricia P.; Kennedy, James L.; Atkinson, Leslie; Fleming, Alison; Sokolowski, Marla; Gaudreau, Helene; Steiner, Meir; Dubé, Laurette; Hamilton, Jill; Moss, Ellen; Wazana, Ashley; Meaney, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Background: Recent evidence suggests that early exposure to low maternal sensitivity is a risk factor for obesity in children and adolescents. A separate line of study shows that the seven-repeat (7R) allele of the dopamine-4 receptor gene (DRD4) increases susceptibility to environmental factors including maternal sensitivity. The current study…

  15. Workplace threats to health and job turnover among women workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gucer, Patricia W; Oliver, Marc; McDiarmid, Melissa

    2003-07-01

    Is job turnover related to concern about workplace health risks? Using data from a national sample of working women, we examined the relationships among workplace risk communications, worker concerns about workplace threats from hazardous substances, indoor air quality, and job change. Eight percent reported changing a job as a result of concern over workplace threats to health. Previous workplace injury predicted concern about hazardous materials and indoor air quality as well as job change, but employer communication about workplace health risks was associated with less job change and less concern about indoor air quality. Women worry about workplace threats to their health enough to change their jobs, but employers may have the power to cut turnover costs and reduce disruption to workers' lives through the use of risk communication programs.

  16. Perinatal risk factors for sensitization, atopic dermatitis and wheezing during the first year of life (PIPO study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagendorens, M M; Bridts, C H; Lauwers, K; van Nuijs, S; Ebo, D G; Vellinga, A; De Clerck, L S; Van Bever, H P; Weyler, J J; Stevens, W J

    2005-06-01

    To evaluate the influence of perinatal environmental factors on early sensitization, atopic dermatitis and wheezing during the first year. Information on pregnancy-related factors, parental atopic history, environmental factors and the clinical course of the infant until age one was gathered by questionnaires, as part of a prospective birth cohort study (Prospective study on the Influence of Perinatal factors on the Occurrence of asthma and allergies [PIPO-study]). Quantification of total and specific IgE was performed in 810 children and their parents. Early sensitization was found in 107/810 (13%) of the infants. Multiple regression analysis showed that specific IgE in fathers was a risk factor for early sensitization in their daughters (adjusted odds ratios (OR(adj)) 2.21 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-4.49); P=0.03), whereas in boys, day care attendance was shown to be protective for early sensitization (OR(adj) 0.38 (95% CI 0.20-0.71); P=0.001). Atopic dermatitis occurred in 195/792 infants (25%). Specific IgE in the mother (OR(adj) 1.52 (95% CI 1.06-2.19); P=0.02) and in the infant (OR(adj) 4.20 (95% CI 2.63-6.68); Patopic dermatitis, whereas postnatal exposure to cats was negatively associated with atopic dermatitis (OR(adj) 0.68 (0.47-0.97); P=0.03). Postnatal exposure to cigarette smoke (OR(adj) 3.31 (95% CI 1.79-6.09); Patopic dermatitis, whereas postnatal exposure to cats had a protective effect.

  17. Development and Sensitivity Analysis of a Frost Risk model based primarily on freely distributed Earth Observation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louka, Panagiota; Petropoulos, George; Papanikolaou, Ioannis

    2015-04-01

    The ability to map the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme climatic conditions, such as frost, is a significant tool in successful agricultural management and decision making. Nowadays, with the development of Earth Observation (EO) technology, it is possible to obtain accurately, timely and in a cost-effective way information on the spatiotemporal distribution of frost conditions, particularly over large and otherwise inaccessible areas. The present study aimed at developing and evaluating a frost risk prediction model, exploiting primarily EO data from MODIS and ASTER sensors and ancillary ground observation data. For the evaluation of our model, a region in north-western Greece was selected as test site and a detailed sensitivity analysis was implemented. The agreement between the model predictions and the observed (remotely sensed) frost frequency obtained by MODIS sensor was evaluated thoroughly. Also, detailed comparisons of the model predictions were performed against reference frost ground observations acquired from the Greek Agricultural Insurance Organization (ELGA) over a period of 10-years (2000-2010). Overall, results evidenced the ability of the model to produce reasonably well the frost conditions, following largely explainable patterns in respect to the study site and local weather conditions characteristics. Implementation of our proposed frost risk model is based primarily on satellite imagery analysis provided nowadays globally at no cost. It is also straightforward and computationally inexpensive, requiring much less effort in comparison for example to field surveying. Finally, the method is adjustable to be potentially integrated with other high resolution data available from both commercial and non-commercial vendors. Keywords: Sensitivity analysis, frost risk mapping, GIS, remote sensing, MODIS, Greece

  18. Advanced Nuclear Measurements - Sensitivity Analysis Emerging Safeguards, Problems and Proliferation Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreicer, J.S.

    1999-01-01

    During the past year this component of the Advanced Nuclear Measurements LDRD-DR has focused on emerging safeguards problems and proliferation risk by investigating problems in two domains. The first is related to the analysis, quantification, and characterization of existing inventories of fissile materials, in particular, the minor actinides (MA) formed in the commercial fuel cycle. Understanding material forms and quantities helps identify and define future measurement problems, instrument requirements, and assists in prioritizing safeguards technology development. The second problem (dissertation research) has focused on the development of a theoretical foundation for sensor array anomaly detection. Remote and unattended monitoring or verification of safeguards activities is becoming a necessity due to domestic and international budgetary constraints. However, the ability to assess the trustworthiness of a sensor array has not been investigated. This research is developing an anomaly detection methodology to assess the sensor array

  19. Nuclear Smuggling and Threats to Lithuanian Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murauskaitė Eglė

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article explores threats related to illicit trafficking of radioactive materials and dual-use goods applicable in state level nuclear programs, actualizing the global trends for the Baltic region. The article points to Eastern Europe’s changing risk profile in this respect, as increasing penetration of Russian criminal groups inside Ukraine and the destabilized situations in neighboring countries create an environment where the risk of nuclear smuggling is on the rise. Criminal entities can be seen forming new bonds, with trafficking routes intersecting and zones of influence shifting - consequently, an unusual level of criminal involvement in nuclear smuggling is observed, alongside a geographic shift of smuggling patterns. In addition, states seeking materials and technologies for their military programs have taken a notable interest in this region as a way of circumventing international transit regulations. The article looks at the likely implications of these new nuclear smuggling trends for the security of the Baltic states. It suggests that Lithuania may soon be facing a relatively new threat, and one that it is ill-prepared to counter. The article discusses the risk factors and indicators to watch before that risk becomes reality, and offers ways for Lithuania to contribute to addressing these increasingly acute problems on a regional level.

  20. Insulin Sensitivity and Plasma Glucose Response to Aerobic Exercise in Pregnant Women at Risk for Gestational Diabetes Mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Embaby, Heba; Elsayed, Enas; Fawzy, Mohamed

    2016-09-01

    Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is one of the common complications that occur during pregnancy. Early intervention is essential to prevent the development of the disease in the non-pregnant state but also helpful in preventing the occurrence of GDM. The aim of the study was to assess the effect of aerobic exercises on insulin sensitivity and fasting plasma glucose level in pregnant women with risk for gestational diabetes mellitus. Forty multigravidae women between 20-24 weeks of gestation with risk for GDM were randomly selected (age range was 25-35 years), body mass index ranged from 30-35 kg/m 2 . Women were divided into two equal groups: intervention group (A), which followed an aerobic exercise program in the form of walking on treadmill, three times weekly until the end of 37 weeks of gestation in addition to diet control. Control group (B) which received diet control with usual care given by obstetricians and midwives. Evaluation of the women in both groups was carried out before and after treatment program through assessment of fasting blood glucose and insulin levels. There was a highly statistically significance decrease in fasting blood glucose level, fasting insulin level in both groups where the p value was 0.0001 favoring group (A). Moderate intensity of aerobic exercises were effective in reducing fasting blood glucose level and fasting insulin level in pregnant women with risk for gestational diabetes mellitus.

  1. Sensitivity analysis of the leaching rate parameter in assessing the environmental risk of phosphogypsum application in sanitary landfills

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marchesi, Marcos Vinicius A.; Hama, Naruhiko; Jacomino, Vanusa M.F.; Ladeira, Ana Claudia Q.; Cota, Stela D.S., E-mail: mvmarchesi@hotmail.com, E-mail: sdsc@cdtn.br, E-mail: vmfj@cdtn.br, E-mail: ana.ladeira@cdtn.br, E-mail: naruhikohama@hotmail.com [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    The attack with sulfuric acid to phosphate rock produces both phosphoric acid, basic raw material in the manufacture of fertilizers, as a by-product called phosphogypsum. Phosphogypsum is composed mostly of calcium sulfate dihydrated, but may have high levels of impurities from the phosphate rock matrix as a series of natural radionuclides, and heavy metals (e.g. Cd, Zn) and metalloids (e.g. , As and Se). Although it is used for agricultural purposes and more recently in construction, in Brazil the generation rate estimated at six million tons per year is much higher than the amount spent on existing alternatives, and therefore mostly deposited in piles in the same place production, causing thereby the risk of contamination of soil and water resources of the region and providing risk to human health. Taken into account the need to find alternative arrangements for phosphogypsum and reduce the impact generated by its contaminants, this study aims to analyze the sensitivity of the leaching rate parameter in the environmental risk evaluation of the application of phosphogypsum in landfills through mathematical modeling, where it is evaluated the concentration of heavy metals and radionuclides in the layer of the soil under the clay layer of the landfill.

  2. Sensitivity analysis of the leaching rate parameter in assessing the environmental risk of phosphogypsum application in sanitary landfills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchesi, Marcos Vinicius A.; Hama, Naruhiko; Jacomino, Vanusa M.F.; Ladeira, Ana Claudia Q.; Cota, Stela D.S.

    2013-01-01

    The attack with sulfuric acid to phosphate rock produces both phosphoric acid, basic raw material in the manufacture of fertilizers, as a by-product called phosphogypsum. Phosphogypsum is composed mostly of calcium sulfate dihydrated, but may have high levels of impurities from the phosphate rock matrix as a series of natural radionuclides, and heavy metals (e.g. Cd, Zn) and metalloids (e.g. , As and Se). Although it is used for agricultural purposes and more recently in construction, in Brazil the generation rate estimated at six million tons per year is much higher than the amount spent on existing alternatives, and therefore mostly deposited in piles in the same place production, causing thereby the risk of contamination of soil and water resources of the region and providing risk to human health. Taken into account the need to find alternative arrangements for phosphogypsum and reduce the impact generated by its contaminants, this study aims to analyze the sensitivity of the leaching rate parameter in the environmental risk evaluation of the application of phosphogypsum in landfills through mathematical modeling, where it is evaluated the concentration of heavy metals and radionuclides in the layer of the soil under the clay layer of the landfill

  3. The threat of nuclear terrorism: from analysis to precautionary measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, M.

    2003-01-01

    Facing the nuclear terrorism risk, this document analyzes the nature of the threat of nuclear terrorism, the risk of attack on nuclear installations, the limited protection of nuclear installations against aircraft crashes, the case of nuclear reprocessing plants, the case of nuclear transport and proposes measures which should be taken without endangering the foundations of democracy. (A.L.B.)

  4. The threat of nuclear terrorism: from analysis to precautionary measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, M

    2003-07-01

    Facing the nuclear terrorism risk, this document analyzes the nature of the threat of nuclear terrorism, the risk of attack on nuclear installations, the limited protection of nuclear installations against aircraft crashes, the case of nuclear reprocessing plants, the case of nuclear transport and proposes measures which should be taken without endangering the foundations of democracy. (A.L.B.)

  5. Bomb Threat Becomes Real News.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gastaldo, Evann

    1999-01-01

    Discusses how the staff of the newspaper at Camarillo High School (California) covered a bomb threat at their school. Describes how they, overnight, conducted interviews, took and developed photographs, produced the layout, and published the newspaper. (RS)

  6. Sensitivity and specificity of the minimal chair height standing ability test: a simple and affordable fall-risk screening instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reider, Nadia C; Naylor, Patti-Jean; Gaul, Catherine

    2015-01-01

    Fall-risk screening instruments have been underutilized in clinical settings because of their lengthy administration time, need of cumbersome equipment, and lack of validation. The primary objective of this study was to assess the validity (sensitivity and specificity) of the Minimal Chair Height Standing Ability Test (MCHSAT). The secondary objective was to develop guidelines to provide physical therapists with best-practice recommendations that can easily be implemented in clinical practice. A retrospective cohort study design was used in which falling history, major medical conditions, cognitive status (Mini-Mental State Examination), and level of independence (Independent Activities of Daily Living) were obtained for 167 community-dwelling older adults (mean age = 83.6 ± 7.3 years), residents of British Columbia, Canada. Participants MCHSAT performance was assessed using a chair whose seat height was modifiable by increments of 5 cm, starting at 47 cm and lowering after each successful attempt. Sensitivity and specificity of the MCHSAT at each chair height were calculated and plotted as a receiver operating characteristic curve. A model to identify participants with history of falls was developed using a forward logistic regression (Wald). Mean MCHSAT performance (cm) was significantly better for participants without history of falls (30.3 cm, 95% CI: 28.1-32.5 cm) than for those with history of falls (37.7 cm, 95% CI: 35.5-40.0 cm) and was the single risk factor associated with fall status (β= 1.087, P history of falls was 34 cm (AUC = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.63-0.82). At this threshold, sensitivity and specificity values were 75% and 62%, respectively. Using 34 cm as the optimal performance, the MCHSAT correctly identified 75% of participants with history of falls and 62% of participants without history of falls. This provides evidence that the MCHSAT is a valid screening tool for use with an older Canadian population. As a simple and inexpensive testing instrument

  7. Six-year change in high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrinello, Christina M; Lutsey, Pamela L; Ballantyne, Christie M; Folsom, Aaron R; Pankow, James S; Selvin, Elizabeth

    2015-08-01

    Single measurements of elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) are associated with increased risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and mortality. Large increases or sustained elevations in hs-CRP may be associated with even greater risk of these outcomes. The objective of this study was to characterize the association of 6-year change in hs-CRP with incident diabetes, incident cardiovascular events (heart disease, stroke, and heart failure), and mortality. We included 10,160 ARIC participants with hs-CRP measured at visits 2 (1990-1992) and 4 (1996-1998). Change in hs-CRP was categorized as sustained low/moderate (<3 mg/L at both visits), decreased (≥3 mg/L at visit 2 and <3 mg/L at visit 4), increased (<3 mg/L at visit 2 and ≥3 mg/L at visit 4), and sustained elevated (≥3 mg/L at both visits). Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association of 6-year change in hs-CRP with incident diabetes, cardiovascular events, and death during ~15 years after visit 4. Compared with persons with sustained low/moderate hs-CRP, those with increased or sustained elevated hs-CRP had an increased risk of incident diabetes (hazard ratios [95% CIs] 1.56 [1.38-1.76] and 1.39 [1.25-1.56], respectively), whereas those with deceased hs-CRP did not. Persons with sustained elevated hs-CRP had an increased risk of coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, heart failure, and mortality (hazard ratios [95% CIs] 1.51 [1.23-1.85], 1.70 [1.32-2.20], 1.60 [1.35-1.89], and 1.52 [1.37-1.69], respectively) compared with those with sustained low/moderate hs-CRP. Associations for sustained elevated hs-CRP were greater than for those with increased hs-CRP over 6 years. Large increases or sustained elevations in hs-CRP over a 6-year period were associated with a subsequent increased risk of diabetes, and persons with sustained elevations in hs-CRP were at the highest risk for cardiovascular disease and mortality. Two measurements of hs-CRP are better than one for

  8. Energy Security Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    accident in the  U.S. in 1979,  the  disaster  at  Chernobyl  in Ukraine in 1986, and the ongoing crisis  at  the  Fukushima  nuclear  generator  in  Japan...and Natural  Disasters  ................................................................ 43 5. Conclusions...is  that  gas hydrates  are  extremely difficult  to  extract without  risking  environmental  disasters .  The  principle  risk  is  that  the

  9. Affirmative Action and Stereotype Threat

    OpenAIRE

    Cohen, Alma

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides experimental evidence on the effect of affirmative action (AA). In particular, we investigate whether affirmative action has a ”stereotype threat effect” – that is, whether AA cues a negative stereotype that leads individuals to conform to the stereotype and adversely affects their performance. Stereotype threat has been shown in the literature to be potentially significant for individuals who identify strongly with the domain of the stereotype and who engage in complex st...

  10. Hypersonic Threats to the Homeland

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-28

    ADAM) system . This ground based system protects 7 soldiers against rocket threats and utilizes a 10 kW laser with an effective range out to...early warning systems for response to hypersonic threats . The integration of directed energy defensive systems with Space Based Infrared Sensors (SBIRS...and early warning radars already in operation will save costs. By capitalizing on Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system capabilities

  11. Introduction of a methoxymethyl side chain into p-phenylenediamine attenuates its sensitizing potency and reduces the risk of allergy induction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goebel, Carsten, E-mail: goebel.c.1@pg.com [The Procter and Gamble Co., Central Product Safety and Communications, Darmstadt (Germany); Troutman, John [The Procter and Gamble Co., Central Product Safety, Cincinnati, OH (United States); Hennen, Jenny [Dept. of Environmental Toxicology, Trier University, Trier (Germany); Rothe, Helga; Schlatter, Harald [The Procter and Gamble Co., Central Product Safety and Communications, Darmstadt (Germany); Gerberick, G. Frank [The Procter and Gamble Co., Central Product Safety, Cincinnati, OH (United States); Blömeke, Brunhilde [Dept. of Environmental Toxicology, Trier University, Trier (Germany)

    2014-02-01

    The strong sensitizing potencies of the most important primary intermediates of oxidative hair dyes, p-phenylenediamine (PPD) and p-toluylenediamine (PTD, i.e. 2-methyl-PPD) are well established. They are considered as the key sensitizers in hair dye allergic contact dermatitis. While modification of their molecular structure is expected to alter their sensitizing properties, it may also impair their color performance. With introduction of a methoxymethyl side chain we found the primary intermediate 2-methoxymethyl-p-phenylenediamine (ME-PPD) with excellent hair coloring performance but significantly reduced sensitizing properties compared to PPD and PTD: In vitro, ME-PPD showed an attenuated innate immune response when analyzed for its protein reactivity and dendritic cell activation potential. In vivo, the effective concentration of ME-PPD necessary to induce an immune response 3-fold above vehicle control (EC3 value) in the local lymph node assay (LLNA) was 4.3%, indicating a moderate skin sensitizing potency compared to values of 0.1 and 0.17% for PPD and PTD, respectively. Finally, assessing the skin sensitizing potency of ME-PPD under consumer hair dye usage conditions through a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) indicated an allergy induction risk negligible compared to PPD or PTD. - Highlights: • Methoxymethyl side chain in p-phenylenediamine reduces its strong skin sensitizing properties. • Reduced protein reactivity and dendritic cell activation. • Reduced skin sensitizing potency in local lymph node assay (LLNA). • Negligible allergy induction risk under hair dye usage conditions.

  12. Introduction of a methoxymethyl side chain into p-phenylenediamine attenuates its sensitizing potency and reduces the risk of allergy induction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goebel, Carsten; Troutman, John; Hennen, Jenny; Rothe, Helga; Schlatter, Harald; Gerberick, G. Frank; Blömeke, Brunhilde

    2014-01-01

    The strong sensitizing potencies of the most important primary intermediates of oxidative hair dyes, p-phenylenediamine (PPD) and p-toluylenediamine (PTD, i.e. 2-methyl-PPD) are well established. They are considered as the key sensitizers in hair dye allergic contact dermatitis. While modification of their molecular structure is expected to alter their sensitizing properties, it may also impair their color performance. With introduction of a methoxymethyl side chain we found the primary intermediate 2-methoxymethyl-p-phenylenediamine (ME-PPD) with excellent hair coloring performance but significantly reduced sensitizing properties compared to PPD and PTD: In vitro, ME-PPD showed an attenuated innate immune response when analyzed for its protein reactivity and dendritic cell activation potential. In vivo, the effective concentration of ME-PPD necessary to induce an immune response 3-fold above vehicle control (EC3 value) in the local lymph node assay (LLNA) was 4.3%, indicating a moderate skin sensitizing potency compared to values of 0.1 and 0.17% for PPD and PTD, respectively. Finally, assessing the skin sensitizing potency of ME-PPD under consumer hair dye usage conditions through a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) indicated an allergy induction risk negligible compared to PPD or PTD. - Highlights: • Methoxymethyl side chain in p-phenylenediamine reduces its strong skin sensitizing properties. • Reduced protein reactivity and dendritic cell activation. • Reduced skin sensitizing potency in local lymph node assay (LLNA). • Negligible allergy induction risk under hair dye usage conditions

  13. Digital Threat and Vulnerability Management: The SVIDT Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland W. Scholz

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The Digital Revolution is inducing major threats to many types of human systems. We present the SVIDT method (a Strengths, Vulnerability, and Intervention Assessment related to Digital Threats for managing the vulnerabilities of human systems with respect to digital threats and changes. The method first performs a multilevel system–actor analysis for assessing vulnerabilities and strengths with respect to digital threats. Then, the method identifies threat scenarios that may become real. By constructing, evaluating, and launching interventions against all identified digital threats and their critical negative outcomes, the resilience of a specific human system can be improved. The evaluation of interventions is done when strengthening the adaptive capacity, i.e., a system’s capability to cope with negative outcomes that may take place in the future. The SVIDT method is embedded in the framework of coupled human–environment systems, the theory of risk and vulnerability assessment, types of adaptation (assimilation vs. accommodation, and a comprehensive sustainability evaluation. The SVIDT method is exemplarily applied to an enterprise (i.e., a Swiss casino for which online gaming has become an essential digital-business field. The discussion reflects on the specifics of digital threats and discusses both the potential benefits and limitations of the SVIDT method.

  14. NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CYBER THREATS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEJANDRO AMIGO TOSSI

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Cyber threat is one of the main risks for security in developing countries, as well in States on the development path, such as ours. This phenomena is a challenge to national security, that needs the adoption of a paramount approach in its analysis, that have to consider all the aspects that had transformed the actors and malevolent actions in this environment in one of the most important challenges to the security of governmental as well as private organizations all over the world. States, hackers, cyber activists, and cyber criminals have been main actors in several situations that had shaped a new dimension for international and national security. The purpose of this article is to propose topics that could be included in the national assessment of cyber threats to the Chilean national security, based upon several conceptual definitions, cyber attacks already executed to state and military organization’s in Chile, and lastly, considerations over cyber threats included in the National Security Strategies of some western powers.

  15. Ecological risk assessment of organic waste amendments using the species sensitivity distribution from a soil organisms test battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domene, Xavier; Ramirez, Wilson; Mattana, Stefania; Alcaniz, Josep Maria; Andres, Pilar

    2008-01-01

    Safe amendment rates (the predicted no-effect concentration or PNEC) of seven organic wastes were estimated from the species sensitivity distribution of a battery of soil biota tests and compared with different realistic amendment scenarios (different predicted environmental concentrations or PEC). None of the wastes was expected to exert noxious effects on soil biota if applied according either to the usual maximum amendment rates in Europe or phosphorus demands of crops (below 2 tonnes DM ha -1 ). However, some of the wastes might be problematic if applied according to nitrogen demands of crops (above 2 tonnes DM ha -1 ). Ammonium content and organic matter stability of the studied wastes are the most influential determinants of the maximum amendment rates derived in this study, but not pollutant burden. This finding indicates the need to stabilize wastes prior to their reuse in soils in order to avoid short-term impacts on soil communities. - Ecological risk assessment of organic waste amendments

  16. Avoidance Denial versus Optimistic Denial in Reaction to the Threat of Future Cardiovascular Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Suzanne C.; Ting, Sarah A.

    2012-01-01

    Two distinctly different denial-based threat orientations (avoidance denial and optimistic denial) were examined using a message about the future risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) for young adults. Participants (N = 101) completed measures of denial-based dispositional threat orientations, current eating, comparative risk, and objective risk…

  17. Integrating human and environmental health in antibiotic risk assessment: A critical analysis of protection goals, species sensitivity and antimicrobial resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Page, Gareth; Gunnarsson, Lina; Snape, Jason; Tyler, Charles R

    2017-12-01

    Antibiotics are vital in the treatment of bacterial infectious diseases but when released into the environment they may impact non-target organisms that perform vital ecosystem services and enhance antimicrobial resistance development with significant consequences for human health. We evaluate whether the current environmental risk assessment regulatory guidance is protective of antibiotic impacts on the environment, protective of antimicrobial resistance, and propose science-based protection goals for antibiotic manufacturing discharges. A review and meta-analysis was conducted of aquatic ecotoxicity data for antibiotics and for minimum selective concentration data derived from clinically relevant bacteria. Relative species sensitivity was investigated applying general linear models, and predicted no effect concentrations were generated for toxicity to aquatic organisms and compared with predicted no effect concentrations for resistance development. Prokaryotes were most sensitive to antibiotics but the range of sensitivities spanned up to several orders of magnitude. We show reliance on one species of (cyano)bacteria and the 'activated sludge respiration inhibition test' is not sufficient to set protection levels for the environment. Individually, neither traditional aquatic predicted no effect concentrations nor predicted no effect concentrations suggested to safeguard for antimicrobial resistance, protect against environmental or human health effects (via antimicrobial resistance development). Including data from clinically relevant bacteria and also more species of environmentally relevant bacteria in the regulatory framework would help in defining safe discharge concentrations for antibiotics for patient use and manufacturing that would protect environmental and human health. It would also support ending unnecessary testing on metazoan species. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  18. Rethinking climate change as a security threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoch, Corinne

    2011-10-15

    Once upon a time climate change was a strictly environment and development issue. Today it has become a matter of national and international security. Efforts to link climate change with violent conflict may not be based on solid evidence, but they have certainly captured the attention of governments. They have played a vital role in raising the much-needed awareness of climate change as an issue that deserves global action. But at what cost? Focusing on climate change as a security threat alone risks devolving humanitarian responsibilities to the military, ignoring key challenges and losing sight of those climate-vulnerable communities that stand most in need of protection.

  19. Cybersecurity Public Sector Threats and Responses

    CERN Document Server

    Andreasson, Kim J

    2011-01-01

    The Internet has given rise to new opportunities for the public sector to improve efficiency and better serve constituents in the form of e-government. But with a rapidly growing user base globally and an increasing reliance on the Internet, digital tools are also exposing the public sector to new risks. An accessible primer, Cybersecurity: Public Sector Threats and Responses focuses on the convergence of globalization, connectivity, and the migration of public sector functions online. It identifies the challenges you need to be aware of and examines emerging trends and strategies from around

  20. Life without risk. Leben ohne Risiko

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hohlneicher, G; Raschke, E [eds.

    1989-01-01

    Mankind's sensitivity to new, global threats, to chemical and radioactive pollution and to interventions in the biological process actually gives rise to a one-sided and narrow range of reactions. Demands for zero-risk make one forget that a reduced risk many possibly lead to a far more dangerous risk in another place. That no uniform view of things can arise in this way is shown by these articles, from the areas of science, politics and the arts, on questions of world population, waste management, climatic change, genetic manipulation, philosophical and ethical problems of risk acceptance as well as the responsibility for risks. (DG).

  1. N deposition as a threat to the World's protected areas under the Convention on Biological Diversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleeker, A.; Hicks, W.K.; Dentener, F.; Galloway, J.; Erisman, J.W.

    2011-01-01

    This paper combines the world's protected areas (PAs) under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), common classification systems of ecosystem conservation status, and current knowledge on ecosystem responses to nitrogen (N) deposition to determine areas most at risk. The results show that 40% (approx. 11% of total area) of PAs currently receive >10 kg N/ha/yr with projections for 2030 indicating that this situation is not expected to change. Furthermore, 950 PAs are projected to receive >30 kg N/ha/yr by 2030 (approx. twice the 2000 number), of which 62 (approx. 11,300 km 2 ) are also Biodiversity Hotspots and G200 ecoregions; with forest and grassland ecosystems in Asia particularly at risk. Many of these sites are known to be sensitive to N deposition effects, both in terms of biodiversity changes and ecosystem services they provide. Urgent assessment of high risk areas identified in this study is recommended to inform the conservation efforts of the CBD. - Highlights: → Significant areas of the Protected Areas Programme under the CBD will likely be under threat of high N deposition levels by the year 2030.→ Approx. 950 PAs are projected to receive N deposition levels of more than 30 kg N/ha/yr by 2030.→ 62 of these sites are also Biodiversity Hotspots and G200 ecoregions, where forest and grassland ecosystems in Asia will be particularly at risk.→ Many of these sites are known to be sensitive to N deposition effects, both in terms of biodiversity changes and ecosystem services they provide → Urgent assessment of high risk areas identified in this study is recommended to inform the conservation efforts of the CBD. - Significant areas of the UNEP Protected Areas Programme under the CBD receive high N deposition rates that are likely to increase in the future, especially in Asia, and may pose a significant threat to biodiversity.

  2. Teleradiology: threat or opportunity?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarvis, L.; Stanberry, B.

    2005-01-01

    The rapid advances in information technology and communication bandwidth have spawned an equally rapid development of clinical teleradiology. Current computer technology and communication capability allow easy transfer of diagnostic images, of any complexity, to any location in the world. This provides the opportunity to acquire swift primary and secondary diagnostic opinions from the remotest of locations, often at economically attractive rates, with the potential for easing the burden on hard-pressed departments of radiology. However, this comes at the potential cost of distancing the clinical radiologist from the patient, with consequent impact upon direct clinical care. As this technology advances across the world, it is vital that UK radiologists are familiar with the clinical implications, the medicolegal framework within which the field operates and the associated governance issues. This paper reviews current practice and discusses the associated risks

  3. Can Physiological Endpoints Improve the Sensitivity of Assays with Plants in the Risk Assessment of Contaminated Soils?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavina, Ana; Antunes, Sara C.; Pinto, Glória; Claro, Maria Teresa; Santos, Conceição; Gonçalves, Fernando; Pereira, Ruth

    2013-01-01

    Site-specific risk assessment of contaminated areas indicates prior areas for intervention, and provides helpful information for risk managers. This study was conducted in the Ervedosa mine area (Bragança, Portugal), where both underground and open pit exploration of tin and arsenic minerals were performed for about one century (1857 – 1969). We aimed at obtaining ecotoxicological information with terrestrial and aquatic plant species to integrate in the risk assessment of this mine area. Further we also intended to evaluate if the assessment of other parameters, in standard assays with terrestrial plants, can improve the identification of phytotoxic soils. For this purpose, soil samples were collected on 16 sampling sites distributed along four transects, defined within the mine area, and in one reference site. General soil physical and chemical parameters, total and extractable metal contents were analyzed. Assays were performed for soil elutriates and for the whole soil matrix following standard guidelines for growth inhibition assay with Lemna minor and emergence and seedling growth assay with Zea mays. At the end of the Z. mays assay, relative water content, membrane permeability, leaf area, content of photosynthetic pigments (chlorophylls and carotenoids), malondialdehyde levels, proline content, and chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm and ΦPSII) parameters were evaluated. In general, the soils near the exploration area revealed high levels of Al, Mn, Fe and Cu. Almost all the soils from transepts C, D and F presented total concentrations of arsenic well above soils screening benchmark values available. Elutriates of several soils from sampling sites near the exploration and ore treatment areas were toxic to L. minor, suggesting that the retention function of these soils was seriously compromised. In Z. mays assay, plant performance parameters (other than those recommended by standard protocols), allowed the identification of more phytotoxic soils. The

  4. Can physiological endpoints improve the sensitivity of assays with plants in the risk assessment of contaminated soils?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Gavina

    Full Text Available Site-specific risk assessment of contaminated areas indicates prior areas for intervention, and provides helpful information for risk managers. This study was conducted in the Ervedosa mine area (Bragança, Portugal, where both underground and open pit exploration of tin and arsenic minerals were performed for about one century (1857-1969. We aimed at obtaining ecotoxicological information with terrestrial and aquatic plant species to integrate in the risk assessment of this mine area. Further we also intended to evaluate if the assessment of other parameters, in standard assays with terrestrial plants, can improve the identification of phytotoxic soils. For this purpose, soil samples were collected on 16 sampling sites distributed along four transects, defined within the mine area, and in one reference site. General soil physical and chemical parameters, total and extractable metal contents were analyzed. Assays were performed for soil elutriates and for the whole soil matrix following standard guidelines for growth inhibition assay with Lemna minor and emergence and seedling growth assay with Zea mays. At the end of the Z. mays assay, relative water content, membrane permeability, leaf area, content of photosynthetic pigments (chlorophylls and carotenoids, malondialdehyde levels, proline content, and chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm and ΦPSII parameters were evaluated. In general, the soils near the exploration area revealed high levels of Al, Mn, Fe and Cu. Almost all the soils from transepts C, D and F presented total concentrations of arsenic well above soils screening benchmark values available. Elutriates of several soils from sampling sites near the exploration and ore treatment areas were toxic to L. minor, suggesting that the retention function of these soils was seriously compromised. In Z. mays assay, plant performance parameters (other than those recommended by standard protocols, allowed the identification of more phytotoxic soils

  5. A review of metal (Pb and Zn) sensitive and pH tolerant bioassay organisms for risk screening of metal-contaminated acidic soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, E.Emily V.; Dave, Göran; Murimboh, John D.

    2013-01-01

    To improve risk estimates at the screening stage of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA), short duration bioassays tailored to undisturbed soil cores from the contaminated site could be useful. However, existing standardized bioassays use disturbed soil samples and often pH sensitive organisms. This is a problem as naturally acidic soils are widespread. Changing soil properties to suit the test organism may change metal bioavailability, leading to erroneous risk estimates. For bioassays in undisturbed soil cores to be effective, species able to withstand natural soil properties must be identified. This review presents a critical examination of bioassay species' tolerance of acidic soils and sensitivity to metal contaminants such as Pb and Zn. Promising organisms include; Dendrobaena octaedra, Folsomia candida, Caenorhabditis elegans, Oppia nitens, Brassica rapa, Trifolium pratense, Allium cepa, Quercus rubra and Acer rubrum. The MetSTICK test and the Bait lamina test were also identified as suitable microorganism tests. -- Highlights: •Risk screening of metal contaminated soils should consider metal bioavailability. •Metal bioavailability is dependent on soil properties such as pH. •Many standardized bioassay organisms are sensitive to acidic soils. •This review identifies acid tolerant and metal sensitive bioassays and species. •The identified tests can improve risk screening of acidic metal contaminated soil. -- This review identifies bioassay species able to withstand naturally acidic soils while being sensitive to metal contaminants

  6. Transmitting the sum of all fears: Iranian nuclear threat salience among offspring of Holocaust survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrira, Amit

    2015-07-01

    Many Israelis are preoccupied with the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, frequently associating it with the danger of annihilation that existed during the Holocaust. The current article examined whether offspring of Holocaust survivors (OHS) are especially preoccupied and sensitive to the Iranian threat, and whether this susceptibility is a part of their increased general image of actual and potential threats, defined as the hostile world scenario (HWS). Study 1 (N = 106) showed that relative to comparisons, OHS reported more preoccupation with the Iranian nuclear threat. Moreover, the positive relationship between the salience of the Iranian threat and symptoms of anxiety was stronger among OHS. Study 2 (N = 450) replicated these findings, while focusing on the Iranian nuclear threat salience and symptoms of psychological distress. It further showed that OHS reported more negative engagement with the HWS (i.e., feeling that surrounding threats decrease one's sense of competence), which in turn mediated their increased preoccupation with the Iranian threat. The results suggest that intergenerational transmission of the Holocaust trauma includes heightened preoccupation with and sensitivity to potential threats of annihilation, and that the specific preoccupation with threats of annihilation reflects a part of a more general preoccupation with surrounding threats. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Hypothesis of a nuclear accident to the nuclear power plant of Gravelines with important radioactive release out of the site: risks prevention, intervention strategies. Evaluation of the sensitization to the nuclear risk of the physician practicing near the site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mraovic, Th.

    1998-01-01

    This thesis has for hypothesis a nuclear accident at the nuclear power plant of Gravelines with radioactive release out of the site: the risks prevention and the strategies of intervention are studied. An evaluation of the sensitization to a nuclear risk is made for the general practitioner that practices near the site. (N.C.)

  8. Organizational Security Threats Related to Portable Data Storage Devices: Qualitative Exploratory Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Paul K.

    2017-01-01

    There has been a significant growth of portable devices capable of storing both personal data as well as sensitive organizational data. This growth of these portable devices has led to an increased threat of cyber-criminal activity. The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of security threats to the data assets of organizations…

  9. Threat-related amygdala functional connectivity is associated with 5-HTTLPR genotype and neuroticism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Martin Korsbak; Mc Mahon, Brenda; Andersen, Sofie Bech

    2016-01-01

    between right amygdala and mPFC and visual cortex, and between both amygdalae and left lateral orbitofrontal (lOFC) and ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (vlPFC). Notably, 5-HTTLPR moderated the association between neuroticism and functional connectivity between both amygdalae and left l...... is not fully understood. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we evaluated independent and interactive effects of the 5-HTTLPR genotype and neuroticism on amygdala functional connectivity during an emotional faces paradigm in 76 healthy individuals. Functional connectivity between left amygdala......Communication between the amygdala and other brain regions critically regulates sensitivity to threat, which has been associated with risk for mood and affective disorders. The extent to which these neural pathways are genetically determined or correlate with risk-related personality measures...

  10. Stereotype Threat's Effect on Women's Achievement in Chemistry: The Interaction of Achievement Goal Orientation for Women in Science Majors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway-Klaassen, Janice Marjorie

    2010-01-01

    "Stereotype threat is being at risk of confirming, as a self-characteristic, a negative stereotype about one's group" (C. M. Steele & Aronson, 1995, p. 797). A stereotype threat effect then is described as the detrimental impact on a person's performance or achievement measurements when they are placed in a stereotype threat environment. For…

  11. Threat and efficacy in Malaysia’s cancer news coverage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collin Jerome

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The news media plays important roles not only in creating and disseminating health messages, but also in influencing people’s perceptions of health and their health behaviours. However, much more needs to be known about the creation process, particularly how health messages are created with the goal of raising awareness and knowledge, and changing people’s attitudes and behaviours. This paper presents a study aimed at examining cancer risk messages in Malaysia’s leading newspapers. Methods: Our search identified count the total 73 articles related to cancer which were published in three leading Malaysian English dailies in 2012 – September 2017. Of these, 10 were selected for a content analysis using the Extended Parallel Process (EPPM Model. The analysis focused on the presence and the levels of two important components required for designing effective health risk message: threat (severity and susceptibility and efficacy (responses efficacy and self-efficacy. The language used in the news articles was also analysed to see whether it helped enhance the threat-efficacy levels which are crucial for increasing message acceptance and yielding behaviour change. Results: Present study shows that the varying presence of threat and efficacy in the articles as evidenced by messages that focused on threat alone with no efficacy and messages that highlighted both threat and efficacy. Results also show contrasting levels of threat and efficacy as evidenced by messages that possessed high levels of threat and efficacy and messages that revealed a high level of threat and a low level of efficacy. Furthermore, the contents were composed differently in terms of language use: some articles used neutral language while others used vivid and descriptive language in addressing the topic and target audience. These have implication on message acceptance and behaviour change where high levels of threat and efficacy, and the ways in which vivid

  12. The threat of nuclear terrorism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maerli, M.

    2001-01-01

    Full text: There have always been enormous gaps between the potential of a weapon and the abilities and/or the will to employ it by terrorists. New means and methods of violence with unknown outcomes could be less appealing for sub-national groups. Conventional 'off the shelf' weaponry is thus likely to remain the major tools for traditional terrorists. However, the analysis show that while the risk of nuclear terrorism may be remote, it should not and cannot be excluded. Rigorous standards and means the protection, control and accounting of fissile materials are thus needed. 'Nuclear terrorism' can be defined as acts of violence and destruction where the means applied are nuclear devices, or threats of use of such means, to create a condition of fear, to get attention, or to blackmail to have wider effect on others than the directly targeted victim(s). Nuclear terrorism is a subset of radiological terrorism, were the means (or threats) applied are radioactive substances. While being distinctly dissimilar in terms of technical approaches and damage potentials, many of the features with regards to public threat perception are likely to be similar. No non-state actors have ever deployed or used a nuclear device, and the number of (publicly known) nuclear bomb treats has been limited. However, there is a disturbing interest among some terrorist organizations in acquiring nuclear weapon capabilities, probably for tactical purposes. The biological and chemical programs of the Japanese 'Aum Shinrikyo' cult that culminated in the Tokyo metro attack is highly publicized. Less well-known is the nuclear weapon program of the group. Nuclear material was acquired from the sect's properties in Australia and markets were explored to purchase nuclear technology via straw trading companies. Another highly profiled terrorist group with obvious nuclear intentions is the 'Al- Qa'ida', the group of bin Laden. The recent trail for the bombings of the U.S. embassies in Nairobi, Kenya

  13. Threats to security and ischaemic heart disease deaths: the case of homicides in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eileen H; Bruckner, Tim A

    2017-02-01

    Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) ranks as the leading cause of death worldwide. Whereas much attention focuses on behavioural and lifestyle factors, less research examines the role of acute, ambient stressors. An unprecedented rise in homicides in Mexico over the past decade and the attendant media coverage and publicity have raised international concern regarding its potential health sequelae. We hypothesize that the rise in homicides in Mexico acts as an ecological threat to security and elevates the risk of both transient ischaemic events and myocardial infarctions, thereby increasing IHD deaths. We applied time-series methods to monthly counts of IHD deaths and homicides in Mexico for 156 months spanning January 2000 to December 2012. Methods controlled for strong temporal patterns in IHD deaths, the unemployment rate and changes in the population size at risk. After controlling for trend and seasonality in IHD deaths, a 1-unit increase in the logged count of homicides coincides with a 7% increase in the odds of IHD death in that same month (95% confidence interval: 0.04 - 0.10). Inference remains robust to additional sensitivity checks, including a state-level fixed effects analysis. Our findings indicate that the elevated level of homicides in Mexico serves as a population-level stressor that acutely increases the risk of IHD death. This research adds to the growing literature documenting the role of ambient threats, or perceived threats, to security on cardiovascular health. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

  14. Mobile Workforce, Mobile Technology, Mobile Threats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, J.

    2015-01-01

    Mobile technologies' introduction into the world of safeguards business processes such as inspection creates tremendous opportunity for novel approaches and could result in a number of improvements to such processes. Mobile applications are certainly the wave of the future. The success of the application ecosystems has shown that users want full fidelity, highly-usable, simple purpose applications with simple installation, quick responses and, of course, access to network resources at all times. But the counterpart to opportunity is risk, and the widespread adoption of mobile technologies requires a deep understanding of the threats and vulnerabilities inherent in mobile technologies. Modern mobile devices can be characterized as small computers. As such, the threats against computing infrastructure apply to mobile devices. Meanwhile, the attributes of mobile technology that make it such an obvious benefit over traditional computing platforms all have elements of risk: pervasive, always-on networking; diverse ecosystems; lack of centralized control; constantly shifting technological foundations; intense competition among competitors in the marketplace; the scale of the installation base (from millions to billions); and many more. This paper will explore the diverse and massive environment of mobile, the number of attackers and vast opportunities for compromise. The paper will explain how mobile devices prove valuable targets to both advanced and persistent attackers as well as less-skilled casual hackers. Organized crime, national intelligence agencies, corporate espionage are all part of the landscape. (author)

  15. Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Raquel A; Araújo, Miguel B; Burgess, Neil D; Foden, Wendy B; Gutsche, Alexander; Rahbek, Carsten; Cabeza, Mar

    2014-01-01

    Aim Climate change can lead to decreased climatic suitability within species' distributions, increased fragmentation of climatically suitable space, and/or emergence of newly suitable areas outside present distributions. Each of these extrinsic threats and opportunities potentially interacts with specific intrinsic traits of species, yet this specificity is seldom considered in risk assessments. We present an analytical framework for examining projections of climate change-induced threats and opportunities with reference to traits that are likely to mediate species' responses, and illustrate the applicability of the framework. Location Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We applied the framework to 195 sub-Saharan African amphibians with both available bioclimatic envelope model projections for the mid-21st century and trait data. Excluded were 500 narrow-ranging species mainly from montane areas. For each of projected losses, increased fragmentation and gains of climate space, we selected potential response-mediating traits and examined the spatial overlap with vulnerability due to these traits. We examined the overlap for all species, and individually for groups of species with different combinations of threats and opportunities. Results In the Congo Basin and arid Southern Africa, projected losses for wide-ranging amphibians were compounded by sensitivity to climatic variation, and expected gains were precluded by poor dispersal ability. The spatial overlap between exposure and vulnerability was more pronounced for species projected to have their climate space contracting in situ or shifting to distant geographical areas. Our results exclude the potential exposure of narrow-ranging species to shrinking climates in the African tropical mountains. Main conclusions We illustrate the application of a framework combining spatial projections of climate change exposure with traits that are likely to mediate species' responses. Although the proposed framework carries several

  16. Exciting fear in adolescence: Does pubertal development alter threat processing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey M. Spielberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Adolescent development encompasses an ostensible paradox in threat processing. Risk taking increases dramatically after the onset of puberty, contributing to a 200% increase in mortality. Yet, pubertal maturation is associated with increased reactivity in threat-avoidance systems. In the first part of this paper we propose a heuristic model of adolescent affective development that may help to reconcile aspects of this paradox, which focuses on hypothesized pubertal increases in the capacity to experience (some fear-evoking experiences as an exciting thrill. In the second part of this paper, we test key features of this model by examining brain activation to threat cues in a longitudinal study that disentangled pubertal and age effects. Pubertal increases in testosterone predicted increased activation to threat cues, not only in regions associated with threat avoidance (i.e., amygdala, but also regions associated with reward pursuit (i.e., nucleus accumbens. These findings are consistent with our hypothesis that puberty is associated with a maturational shift toward more complex processing of threat cues—which may contribute to adolescent tendencies to explore and enjoy some types of risky experiences.

  17. Exciting fear in adolescence: does pubertal development alter threat processing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spielberg, Jeffrey M; Olino, Thomas M; Forbes, Erika E; Dahl, Ronald E

    2014-04-01

    Adolescent development encompasses an ostensible paradox in threat processing. Risk taking increases dramatically after the onset of puberty, contributing to a 200% increase in mortality. Yet, pubertal maturation is associated with increased reactivity in threat-avoidance systems. In the first part of this paper we propose a heuristic model of adolescent affective development that may help to reconcile aspects of this paradox, which focuses on hypothesized pubertal increases in the capacity to experience (some) fear-evoking experiences as an exciting thrill. In the second part of this paper, we test key features of this model by examining brain activation to threat cues in a longitudinal study that disentangled pubertal and age effects. Pubertal increases in testosterone predicted increased activation to threat cues, not only in regions associated with threat avoidance (i.e., amygdala), but also regions associated with reward pursuit (i.e., nucleus accumbens). These findings are consistent with our hypothesis that puberty is associated with a maturational shift toward more complex processing of threat cues--which may contribute to adolescent tendencies to explore and enjoy some types of risky experiences. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  18. Does Stereotype Threat Affect Women in Academic Medicine?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, Diana Jill; Joseph, Anne; van Ryn, Michelle; Carnes, Molly

    2012-01-01

    Multiple complex factors contribute to the slow pace of women’s advancement into leadership positions in academic medicine. In this article, the authors propose that stereotype threat--under which individuals who are members of a group characterized by negative stereotypes in a particular domain perform below their actual abilities in that domain when group membership is emphasized--may play an important role in the underrepresentation of women in leadership positions in academic medicine. Research to objectively assess the impact of stereotype threat for women in academic medicine is feasible and necessary to confirm this hypothesis. Still, a number of conditions present in the academic medicine community today have been shown to trigger stereotype threat in other settings, and stereotype threat fits with existing research on gender in academic medicine. In the meantime, academic health centers should implement relatively simple measures supported by experimental evidence from other settings to reduce the risk of stereotype threat, including: (1) introducing the concept of stereotype threat to the academic medicine community; (2) engaging all stakeholders, male and female, to promote identity safety by enacting and making faculty aware of policies to monitor potential instances of discrimination, and training faculty to provide performance feedback that is free of gender bias; (3) counteracting the effects of sex segregation at academic health centers by increasing exposure to successful female leaders; (4) reducing gender stereotype priming by avoiding stereotypically male criteria for promotion, grants, and awards; and (5) building leadership efficacy among female physicians and scientists. PMID:22361794

  19. Does stereotype threat affect women in academic medicine?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, Diana Jill; Joseph, Anne; van Ryn, Michelle; Carnes, Molly

    2012-04-01

    Multiple complex factors contribute to the slow pace of women's advancement into leadership positions in academic medicine. In this article, the authors propose that stereotype threat--under which individuals who are members of a group characterized by negative stereotypes in a particular domain perform below their actual abilities in that domain when group membership is emphasized--may play an important role in the underrepresentation of women in leadership positions in academic medicine. Research to objectively assess the impact of stereotype threat for women in academic medicine is feasible and necessary to confirm this hypothesis. Still, a number of conditions present in the academic medicine community today have been shown to trigger stereotype threat in other settings, and stereotype threat fits with existing research on gender in academic medicine. In the meantime, academic health centers should implement relatively simple measures supported by experimental evidence from other settings to reduce the risk of stereotype threat, including (1) introducing the concept of stereotype threat to the academic medicine community, (2) engaging all stakeholders, male and female, to promote identity safety by enacting and making faculty aware of policies to monitor potential instances of discrimination, and training faculty to provide performance feedback that is free of gender bias, (3) counteracting the effects of sex segregation at academic health centers by increasing exposure to successful female leaders, (4) reducing gender stereotype priming by avoiding stereotypically male criteria for promotion, grants, and awards, and (5) building leadership efficacy among female physicians and scientists.

  20. Understanding Cyber Threats and Vulnerabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luiijf, H.A.M.

    2012-01-01

    This chapter reviews current and anticipated cyber-related threats to the Critical Information Infrastructure (CII) and Critical Infrastructures (CI). The potential impact of cyber-terrorism to CII and CI has been coined many times since the term was first coined during the 1980s. Being the

  1. Cyber Threats to Nuclear Infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, Robert S.; Moskowitz, Paul; Schanfein, Mark; Bjornard, Trond; St. Michel, Curtis

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear facility personnel expend considerable efforts to ensure that their facilities can maintain continuity of operations against both natural and man-made threats. Historically, most attention has been placed on physical security. Recently however, the threat of cyber-related attacks has become a recognized and growing world-wide concern. Much attention has focused on the vulnerability of the electric grid and chemical industries to cyber attacks, in part, because of their use of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. Lessons learned from work in these sectors indicate that the cyber threat may extend to other critical infrastructures including sites where nuclear and radiological materials are now stored. In this context, this white paper presents a hypothetical scenario by which a determined adversary launches a cyber attack that compromises the physical protection system and results in a reduced security posture at such a site. The compromised security posture might then be malevolently exploited in a variety of ways. The authors conclude that the cyber threat should be carefully considered for all nuclear infrastructures.

  2. Cyber Threats to Nuclear Infrastructures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert S. Anderson; Paul Moskowitz; Mark Schanfein; Trond Bjornard; Curtis St. Michel

    2010-07-01

    Nuclear facility personnel expend considerable efforts to ensure that their facilities can maintain continuity of operations against both natural and man-made threats. Historically, most attention has been placed on physical security. Recently however, the threat of cyber-related attacks has become a recognized and growing world-wide concern. Much attention has focused on the vulnerability of the electric grid and chemical industries to cyber attacks, in part, because of their use of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. Lessons learned from work in these sectors indicate that the cyber threat may extend to other critical infrastructures including sites where nuclear and radiological materials are now stored. In this context, this white paper presents a hypothetical scenario by which a determined adversary launches a cyber attack that compromises the physical protection system and results in a reduced security posture at such a site. The compromised security posture might then be malevolently exploited in a variety of ways. The authors conclude that the cyber threat should be carefully considered for all nuclear infrastructures.

  3. Threat from Emerging Vectorborne Viruses

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-06-09

    Reginald Tucker reads an abridged version of the commentary by CDC author Ronald Rosenberg, Threat from Emerging Vectorborne Viruses.  Created: 6/9/2016 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 6/9/2016.

  4. The threat of soil salinity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daliakopoulos, I.N.; Tsanis, I.K.; Koutroulis, A.; Kourgialas, N.N.; Varouchakis, A.E.; Karatzas, G.P.; Ritsema, C.J.

    2016-01-01

    Soil salinisation is one of the major soil degradation threats occurring in Europe. The effects of salinisation can be observed in numerous vital ecological and non-ecological soil functions. Drivers of salinisation can be detected both in the natural and man-made environment, with climate and

  5. Insider Threat Security Reference Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-01

    this challenge. CMU/SEI-2012-TR-007 | 2 2 The Components of the ITSRA Figure 2 shows the four layers of the ITSRA. The Business Security layer......organizations improve their level of preparedness to address the insider threat. Business Security Architecture Data Security Architecture

  6. Bomb Threats Taking Financial Toll

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, Darcia Harris

    2004-01-01

    Despite all its efforts to crack down on the bomb scares that disrupted classes again and again in 2003, North Carolina's Orange County district fell victim to yet another false alarm this school year, 2004. For some schools, bomb threats have become more routine than fire drills, with each incident ringing up multi-thousand-dollar tabs for…

  7. Reducing the risk of sensitivity and pulpal complications after the placement of crowns and fixed partial dentures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brännström, M

    1996-10-01

    Sensitivity after cementation of a crown with glass-ionomer cement is often attributed to an adverse effect on the pulp by the luting agent. Most permanent restorative materials in common use today do not tend to irritate the pulp; the main cause of pulpal damage is infection, the bacteria originating in the smear layer or deep in the dental tubules, inaccessible to caries-excavating procedures. A poorly fitting provisional crown may expose cut dentin to the oral fluids, and mechanical trauma caused by frictional heat during preparation may also damage the pulp. The following precautions are recommended during precementation procedures to reduce the risk of an inflammatory response in the pulp: (1) The provisional crown should be well fitting, covering cervical dentin but not impinging on the periodontal tissues. The permanent crown should be cemented as soon as possible. (2) The superficial smear layer should be removed and the dentinal surface should be treated with an antibacterial solution before the provisional crown is placed. (3) To decrease dentinal permeability under the provisional crown, the dentinal surface should be covered with a liner that can be easily removed before final cementation. (4) to ensure optimal mircomechanical bonding, the dentinal surface should be thoroughly cleaned, and the dentin should be kept moist until cementation. (5) The occlusion should be carefully checked before cementation of the crown.

  8. Spatial Pattern Determination of Biodiversity Threats at Landscape Level (Case Study: Golestan Province)

    OpenAIRE

    R. Mirzaei; A. Esmaili-Sari; M. R. Hemami; H. R. Rezaei

    2015-01-01

    Mapping spatial patterns of potential biodiversity threats is one of the important steps for effective conservation planning and activities. To determine the spatial patterns of threats in Golestan province, 12 criteria in four main groups including structural (fractal coefficient of perimeter, circularity ratio of area, average slope), compositional aspects of biodiversity (presence of species at risk), non-biological threats (distance to city, distance to village, distance to road, distance...

  9. Drought risk assessment under climate change is sensitive to methodological choices for the estimation of evaporative demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewes, Candida F; Rangwala, Imtiaz; Barsugli, Joseph J; Hobbins, Michael T; Kumar, Sanjiv

    2017-01-01

    Several studies have projected increases in drought severity, extent and duration in many parts of the world under climate change. We examine sources of uncertainty arising from the methodological choices for the assessment of future drought risk in the continental US (CONUS). One such uncertainty is in the climate models' expression of evaporative demand (E0), which is not a direct climate model output but has been traditionally estimated using several different formulations. Here we analyze daily output from two CMIP5 GCMs to evaluate how differences in E0 formulation, treatment of meteorological driving data, choice of GCM, and standardization of time series influence the estimation of E0. These methodological choices yield different assessments of spatio-temporal variability in E0 and different trends in 21st century drought risk. First, we estimate E0 using three widely used E0 formulations: Penman-Monteith; Hargreaves-Samani; and Priestley-Taylor. Our analysis, which primarily focuses on the May-September warm-season period, shows that E0 climatology and its spatial pattern differ substantially between these three formulations. Overall, we find higher magnitudes of E0 and its interannual variability using Penman-Monteith, in particular for regions like the Great Plains and southwestern US where E0 is strongly influenced by variations in wind and relative humidity. When examining projected changes in E0 during the 21st century, there are also large differences among the three formulations, particularly the Penman-Monteith relative to the other two formulations. The 21st century E0 trends, particularly in percent change and standardized anomalies of E0, are found to be sensitive to the long-term mean value and the amplitude of interannual variability, i.e. if the magnitude of E0 and its interannual variability are relatively low for a particular E0 formulation, then the normalized or standardized 21st century trend based on that formulation is amplified

  10. Truck bomb and insider threats to nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirsch, D.

    1987-01-01

    In the nuclear field, two the these weak links in the security chain are the truck bomb threat and the insider threat. The risks associated with terrorist use of vehicular bombs against nuclear targets surfaced (actually, resurfaced) followed the terrorist attacks on the US Embassy annex and the Marine compound in Leb Concern was expressed that similar attacks against nuclear facilities could result in substantial damage and release of radioactivity. Since the current regulations of the NRC require licensees to protect only against attacks on foot (and even then, only against very small attacking forces), shortly after the Lebanon bombings, that agency commenced an urgent rulemaking to require its licensees to protect against truck bombs. Inexplicably, that rulemaking was called off after research results indicated that the truck bomb threat to nuclear facilities was even more serious than previously thought. Even were nuclear facilities adequately protected against external attack, be the aim theft or sabotage, the greatest security risk to these sites - the threat of action by insiders - would remain. The traditional methods of protecting against the insider threat - such as the two-person rule, strict compartmentalization of vital areas, and design features that make damage to two or more redundant systems by one individual difficult - are generally expensive and have encountered substantial resistance from the nuclear industry, which has restrained the NRC from requiring them

  11. threat or opportunity to distance education throughput at the south

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    plt

    requirements in particular, potentially increased risk of failure. .... E-portfolios can be used as evidence of achieved ... DoD should devise innovative strategies to resolve the de facto isolation of DE .... well-prepared, hard-copy study guides. ... managing the potential threats associated.63 The free use of technology by soldier ...

  12. Ebola virus – new threat to global health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rina K. Kusumaratna

    2015-12-01

        The Ebola virus outbreak constitutes a serious warning that epidemics may occur anywhere and places every afflicted nation at risk. Therefore it is essential to institute measures to stop its spread and its future threat, which is a moral obligation of members of the health profession, whether academicians, researchers, or health ministry officials.

  13. Nationwide assessment of nonpoint source threats to water quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Brown; Pamela Froemke

    2012-01-01

    Water quality is a continuing national concern, in part because the containment of pollution from nonpoint (diffuse) sources remains a challenge. We examine the spatial distribution of nonpoint-source threats to water quality. On the basis of comprehensive data sets for a series of watershed stressors, the relative risk of water-quality impairment was estimated for the...

  14. Suitable Enemies? Governmentality of Youth: Youth as a Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostrowicka, Helena

    2012-01-01

    This article is a contribution to the discourse of politics towards (for) youth, which the author defines as the "cultural politics of risk". The article begins with scientific representations of youth as a threat, as a group inclined to engage in risky behaviours. It then focuses on theoretical approaches called the "risk…

  15. Adrenocortical responses to offspring-directed threats in two open-nesting birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Luke K; Bisson, Isabelle-Anne; Hayden, Timothy J; Wikelski, Martin; Romero, L Michael

    2009-07-01

    Dependent young are often easy targets for predators, so for many parent vertebrates, responding to offspring-directed threats is a fundamental part of reproduction. We tested the parental adrenocortical response of the endangered black-capped vireo (Vireo atricapilla) and the common white-eyed vireo (V. griseus) to acute and chronic threats to their offspring. Like many open-nesting birds, our study species experience high offspring mortality. Parents responded behaviorally to a predator decoy or human 1-2m from their nests, but, in contrast to similar studies of cavity-nesting birds, neither these acute threats nor chronic offspring-directed threats altered plasma corticosterone concentrations of parents. Although parents in this study showed no corticosterone response to offspring-directed threats, they always increased corticosterone concentrations in response to capture. To explain these results, we propose that parents perceive their risk of nest-associated death differently depending on nest type, with cavity-nesting adults perceiving greater risk to themselves than open-nesters that can readily detect and escape from offspring-directed threats. Our results agree with previous studies suggesting that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, a major physiological mechanism for coping with threats to survival, probably plays no role in coping with threats to offspring when risks to parents and offspring are not correlated. We extend that paradigm by demonstrating that nest style may influence how adults perceive the correlation between offspring-directed and self-directed threats.

  16. Protection without detection: a threat mitigation technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Joshua; McCoy, Joseph R.; Ratazzi, Paul

    2012-05-01

    Networking systems and individual applications have traditionally been defended using signature-based tools that protect the perimeter, many times to the detriment of service, performance, and information flow. These tools require knowledge of both the system on which they run and the attack they are preventing. As such, by their very definition, they only account for what is known to be malicious and ignore the unknown. The unknown, or zero day threat, can occur when defenses have yet to be immunized via a signature or other identifier of the threat. In environments where execution of the mission is paramount, the networks and applications must perform their function of information delivery without endangering the enterprise or losing the salient information, even when facing zero day threats. In this paper we, describe a new defensive strategy that provides a means to more deliberately balance the oft mutually exclusive aspects of protection and availability. We call this new strategy Protection without Detection, since it focuses on network protection without sacrificing information availability. The current instantiation analyzes the data stream in real time as it passes through an in-line device. Critical files are recognized, and mission-specific trusted templates are applied as they are forwarded to their destination. The end result is a system which eliminates the opportunity for propagation of malicious or unnecessary payloads via the various containers that are inherent in the definition of standard file types. In some cases, this method sacrifices features or functionality that is typically inherent in these files. However, with the flexibility of the template approach, inclusion or exclusion of these features becomes a deliberate choice of the mission owners, based on their needs and amount of acceptable risk. The paper concludes with a discussion of future extensions and applications.

  17. The correlation between concepts of «uncertainty», «risk», «challenge», «threat», «danger» in the context of the sociology of operating security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. V. Kalashnikova

    2017-07-01

    Analysis of the concepts led to the conclusion that all these concepts are related to one another by the degree of damage to the individual, society and state. The use of these categories will allow ranking the range of possible threats to the security of life and will contribute to the development of adequate, appropriate technologies to combat it, to minimize their negative effects and, consequently, will improve the current system of ensuring safety of personality, society and state.

  18. A Quantitative Risk Assessment of the Skin Sensitization Induction Potential of the Kathon CG Preservative in Rinse-off and Leave-on Personal Care and Cosmetic Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towle, Kevin M; Drechsel, Derek A; Warshaw, Erin M; Fung, Ernest S; Novick, Rachel M; Paustenbach, Dennis J; Monnot, Andrew D

    2018-03-22

    Kathon CG is a commonly used cosmetic-grade preservative that contains active ingredients methylchloroisothiazolinone (MCI) and methylisothiazolinone (MI). The aim of the study was to perform a skin sensitization induction risk assessment of daily exposure to Kathon CG after use of various personal care and cosmetic products. We calculated an estimated daily consumer exposure level for rinse-off and leave-on products using the amount of product applied per application, number of applications per day, a retention factor, the MCI/MI concentration, and body surface area values. We assumed that the products contained the maximum recommended safe concentration of MCI/MI: 15 ppm in rinse-off products and 7.5 ppm in leave-on products. We compared estimated consumer exposure levels with the no expected sensitization induction level for MCI/MI and applied sensitization assessment factors to calculate product-specific margins of safety (MOSs). The MOSs for rinse-off products ranged from 5 to 63, whereas the MOSs for leave-on products ranged from 0.03 to 1.49. Overall, our results provide evidence that some leave-on products containing the maximum recommended safe concentration of Kathon CG may increase the risk of sensitization induction due to exposure to MCI/MI. In contrast, rinse-off products were not associated with a potential increased risk of skin sensitization induction.

  19. Sensitivity towards Fear of Electric Shock in Passive Threat Situations

    OpenAIRE

    Ring, Patrick; Kaernbach, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Human judgment and decision-making (JDM) requires an assessment of different choice options. While traditional theories of choice argue that cognitive processes are the main driver to reach a decision, growing evidence highlights the importance of emotion in decision-making. Following these findings, it appears relevant to understand how individuals asses the attractiveness or riskiness of a situation in terms of emotional processes. The following study aims at a better understanding of the p...

  20. Sensitive and Rapid Identification of Biological Threat Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-12-01

    plague, and Bruceila abortis , the etiologic agent of brucellosis, indicate that the Qiagen procedures will also be effective in preparing these agents for...procedure for two bacteria, Yersinia pestis and Bruceila abortis , and found that DNA isolated with this method yielded PCR detection limits at least

  1. IGF-1 levels across the spectrum of normal to elevated in acromegaly: relationship to insulin sensitivity, markers of cardiovascular risk and body composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Tirissa J; Jin, Zhezhen; Shen, Wei; Reyes-Vidal, Carlos M; Fernandez, Jean Carlos; Bruce, Jeffrey N; Kostadinov, Jane; Post, Kalmon D; Freda, Pamela U

    2015-12-01

    Activity of acromegaly is gauged by levels of GH and IGF-1 and epidemiological studies demonstrate that their normalization reduces acromegaly's excess mortality rate. However, few data are available linking IGF-1 levels to features of the disease that may relate to cardiovascular (CV) risk. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that serum IGF-1 levels relative to the upper normal limit relate to insulin sensitivity, serum CV risk markers and body composition in acromegaly. In this prospective, cross-sectional study conducted at a pituitary tumor referral center we studied 138 adult acromegaly patients, newly diagnosed and previously treated surgically, with fasting and post-oral glucose levels of endocrine and CV risk markers and body composition assessed by DXA. Active acromegaly is associated with lower insulin sensitivity, body fat and CRP levels than acromegaly in remission. %ULN IGF-1 strongly predicts insulin sensitivity, better than GH and this persists after adjustment for body fat and lean tissue mass. %ULN IGF-1 also relates inversely to CRP levels and fat mass, positively to lean tissue and skeletal muscle estimated (SM(E)) by DXA, but not to blood pressure, lipids, BMI or waist circumference. Gender interacts with the IGF-1-lean tissue mass relationship. Active acromegaly presents a unique combination of features associated with CV risk, reduced insulin sensitivity yet lower body fat and lower levels of some serum CV risk markers, a pattern that is reversed in remission. %ULN IGF-1 levels strongly predict these features. Given the known increased CV risk of active acromegaly, these findings suggest that of these factors insulin resistance is most strongly related to disease activity and potentially to the increased CV risk of active acromegaly.

  2. Urine albumin/creatinine ratio, high sensitivity C-reactive protein and N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide--three new cardiovascular risk markers--do they improve risk prediction and influence treatment?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Michael H; Sehestedt, Thomas; Lyngbaek, Stig

    2010-01-01

    -proBNP), related to hemodynamic cardiovascular risk factors, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), related to metabolic cardiovascular risk factors and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), related to hemodynamic as well as metabolic risk factors. In healthy subjects with a 10-year risk of cardiovascular...... death lower than 5% based on HeartScore and therefore not eligible for primary prevention, the actual 10-year risk of cardiovascular death exceeded 5% in a small subgroup of subjects with UACR higher than the 95-percentile of approximately 1.6 mg/mmol. Combined use of high UACR or high hsCRP identified...... a larger subgroup of 16% with high cardiovascular risk in which primary prevention may be advised despite low-moderate cardiovascular risk based on HeartScore. Furthermore, combined use of high UACR or high Nt-proBNP in subjects with known cardiovascular disease or diabetes identified a large subgroup...

  3. Meeting the challenge of interacting threats in freshwater ecosystems: A call to scientists and managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura S. Craig

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Human activities create threats that have consequences for freshwater ecosystems and, in most watersheds, observed ecological responses are the result of complex interactions among multiple threats and their associated ecological alterations. Here we discuss the value of considering multiple threats in research and management, offer suggestions for filling knowledge gaps, and provide guidance for addressing the urgent management challenges posed by multiple threats in freshwater ecosystems. There is a growing literature assessing responses to multiple alterations, and we build off this background to identify three areas that require greater attention: linking observed alterations to threats, understanding when and where threats overlap, and choosing metrics that best quantify the effects of multiple threats. Advancing science in these areas will help us understand existing ecosystem conditions and predict future risk from multiple threats. Because addressing the complex issues and novel ecosystems that arise from the interaction of multiple threats in freshwater ecosystems represents a significant management challenge, and the risks of management failure include loss of biodiversity, ecological goods, and ecosystem services, we also identify actions that could improve decision-making and management outcomes. These actions include drawing insights from management of individual threats, using threat attributes (e.g., causes and spatio-temporal dynamics to identify suitable management approaches, testing management strategies that are likely to be successful despite uncertainties about the nature of interactions among threats, avoiding unintended consequences, and maximizing conservation benefits. We also acknowledge the broadly applicable challenges of decision-making within a socio-political and economic framework, and suggest that multidisciplinary teams will be needed to innovate solutions to meet the current and future challenge of interacting

  4. Meeting the challenge of interacting threats in freshwater ecosystems: A call to scientists and managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Laura S.; Olden, Julian D.; Arthington, Angela; Entrekin, Sally; Hawkins, Charles P.; Kelly, John J.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Maitland, Bryan M.; Rosi, Emma J.; Roy, Allison; Strayer, David L.; Tank, Jennifer L.; West, Amie O.; Wooten, Matthew S.

    2017-01-01

    Human activities create threats that have consequences for freshwater ecosystems and, in most watersheds, observed ecological responses are the result of complex interactions among multiple threats and their associated ecological alterations. Here we discuss the value of considering multiple threats in research and management, offer suggestions for filling knowledge gaps, and provide guidance for addressing the urgent management challenges posed by multiple threats in freshwater ecosystems. There is a growing literature assessing responses to multiple alterations, and we build off this background to identify three areas that require greater attention: linking observed alterations to threats, understanding when and where threats overlap, and choosing metrics that best quantify the effects of multiple threats. Advancing science in these areas will help us understand existing ecosystem conditions and predict future risk from multiple threats. Because addressing the complex issues and novel ecosystems that arise from the interaction of multiple threats in freshwater ecosystems represents a significant management challenge, and the risks of management failure include loss of biodiversity, ecological goods, and ecosystem services, we also identify actions that could improve decision-making and management outcomes. These actions include drawing insights from management of individual threats, using threat attributes (e.g., causes and spatio-temporal dynamics) to identify suitable management approaches, testing management strategies that are likely to be successful despite uncertainties about the nature of interactions among threats, avoiding unintended consequences, and maximizing conservation benefits. We also acknowledge the broadly applicable challenges of decision-making within a socio-political and economic framework, and suggest that multidisciplinary teams will be needed to innovate solutions to meet the current and future challenge of interacting threats in

  5. Radiological threat, public and media: a psychosociological view

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arciszewski, T. [University Rene Descartes - Paris 5, 92 - Boulogne (France)

    2006-07-01

    Nuclear risk has become a major social communication along the 20. century because of its critical socio-political impact. That communication is not limited to expert speeches and simple acceptation. The way people understand that kind of threat is based on beliefs and on imaginary pictures. Consequently, and because it shapes people attitude, expectations and behaviours, their analysis is a key for policy and prevention. We will present, in the light of the research on risk perception and social psychology theoretical background, how people can manage with the nuclear fear. Some particular points will be studied: the nature of nuclear threat and fear, the cultural and media coverage and the consequences of this threat on behaviour. We will first focus on what a societal threat is and of which nature is the nuclear threat. We will rely on statistical data on risk perception. We have to consider the two main fields of information: first the nuclear threat as a mass destruction weapon and second, the radiological risk as a consequence of civil use of radiological material. Those two aspects, deeply related for most people, make the roots for the described fears. Then, the perception of the risks relative to nuclear is necessarily influenced by this representation. The representation of the nuclear power is and will be for next years, related to the nuclear mushroom as experimentally pointed o ut by Fiske, both with the abnormal children of Chernobyl. How can we change that vision? Not to be a liar, it will be hard work because it a old story, a long construction of what will be the future of mankind, something deeply influenced by media, movie, geopolitical facts like the cold war or technological accident like Three Mile Island or Chernobyl. It has to deal with the problem of media transmission of fears, which is a problem in itself, but due to the scientific base of our problem, particularly relevant. Moreover, there is a strong cultural background that maintains

  6. Radiological threat, public and media: a psychosociological view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arciszewski, T.

    2006-01-01

    Nuclear risk has become a major social communication along the 20. century because of its critical socio-political impact. That communication is not limited to expert speeches and simple acceptation. The way people understand that kind of threat is based on beliefs and on imaginary pictures. Consequently, and because it shapes people attitude, expectations and behaviours, their analysis is a key for policy and prevention. We will present, in the light of the research on risk perception and social psychology theoretical background, how people can manage with the nuclear fear. Some particular points will be studied: the nature of nuclear threat and fear, the cultural and media coverage and the consequences of this threat on behaviour. We will first focus on what a societal threat is and of which nature is the nuclear threat. We will rely on statistical data on risk perception. We have to consider the two main fields of information: first the nuclear threat as a mass destruction weapon and second, the radiological risk as a consequence of civil use of radiological material. Those two aspects, deeply related for most people, make the roots for the described fears. Then, the perception of the risks relative to nuclear is necessarily influenced by this representation. The representation of the nuclear power is and will be for next years, related to the nuclear mushroom as experimentally pointed o ut by Fiske, both with the abnormal children of Chernobyl. How can we change that vision? Not to be a liar, it will be hard work because it a old story, a long construction of what will be the future of mankind, something deeply influenced by media, movie, geopolitical facts like the cold war or technological accident like Three Mile Island or Chernobyl. It has to deal with the problem of media transmission of fears, which is a problem in itself, but due to the scientific base of our problem, particularly relevant. Moreover, there is a strong cultural background that maintains

  7. Initial perspectives on process threat management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whiteley, James R. Rob; Mannan, M. Sam

    2004-01-01

    Terrorist and criminal acts are now considered credible risks in the process industries. Deliberate attacks on the nation's petroleum refineries and chemical plants would pose a significant threat to public welfare, national security, and the US economy. To-date, the primary response of government and industry has been on improved security to prevent attacks and the associated consequences. While prevention is clearly preferred, the potential for successful attacks must be addressed. If plant security is breached, the extent of the inflicted damage is determined by the available plant safety systems and procedures. We refer to this 'inside the gate' response as process threat management. The authors have initiated a joint industry/academia study to address: - the level of safety provided by existing plant equipment and safety systems in response to a terrorist act, and; - identification of process (rather than security) needs or opportunities to address this new safety concern. This paper describes the initial perspectives and issues identified by the team at the beginning of the study

  8. Ultra-Sensitive NT-proBNP Quantification for Early Detection of Risk Factors Leading to Heart Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keum-Soo Song

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular diseases such as acute myocardial infarction and heart failure accounted for the death of 17.5 million people (31% of all global deaths in 2015. Monitoring the level of circulating N-terminal proBNP (NT-proBNP is crucial for the detection of people at risk of heart failure. In this article, we describe a novel ultra-sensitive NT-proBNP test (us-NT-proBNP that allows the quantification of circulating NT-proBNP in 30 min at 25 °C in the linear detection range of 7.0–600 pg/mL. It is a first report on the application of a fluorescence bead labeled detection antibody, DNA-guided detection method, and glass fiber membrane platform for the quantification of NT-proBNP in clinical samples. Limit of blank, limit of detection, and limit of quantification were 2.0 pg/mL, 3.7 pg/mL, and 7 pg/mL, respectively. The coefficient of variation was found to be less than 10% in the entire detection range of 7–600 pg/mL. The test demonstrated specificity for NT-proBNP without interferences from bilirubin, intra-lipid, biotin, and hemoglobin. The serial dilution test for plasma samples containing various NT-proBNP levels showed the linear decrement in concentration with the regression coefficient of 0.980–0.998. These results indicate that us-NT-proBNP test does not suffer from the interference of the plasma components for the measurement of NT-proBNP in clinical samples.

  9. SECURITY THREATS IN CENTRAL ASIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Çağla Gül Yesevi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This study will analyze main security threats in Central Asia. It is obvious thatsince the end of Cold War, there have been many security threats in Central Asiaas internal weakness of Central Asian states, terrorism, transnational crime,economic insecurity, environmental issues, drug trafficking, ethnic violence,regional instability. This study will propose thatwith increasing interdependence,states need each other to solve these global security problems. In that sense,regional and sub-regional cooperation between Central Asian states and with otherregional actors has been witnessed. It is clear that the withdrawal of NATO fromAfghanistan will destabilize Central Asia. This study will investigate overallsecurity situation in Central Asia and affects andcontributions of regionalorganizations to Eurasian security

  10. Ransomware - Threats Vulnerabilities And Recommendations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadeem Shah

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Attack methodologies transform with the transforming dynamics of technology. Consequently it becomes imperative that individuals and organization implement the highest levels of security within their devices and infrastructure for optimal protection against these rapidly evolving attacks. Ransomware is one such attack that never fails to surprise in terms of its ability to identify vulnerabilities and loopholes in technology. This paper discusses the categories of ransomware its common attack vectors and provides a threat landscape with the aim to highlight the true potential and destructive nature of such malware based attacks. In this paper we also present the most current ransomware attack that is still a potential threat and also provide recommendations and strategies for prevention and protection against these attacks. A novel solution is also discussed that could be further worked upon in the future by other researchers and vendors of security devices.

  11. Filling in biodiversity threat gaps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joppa, L. N.; O'Connor, Brian; Visconti, Piero

    2016-01-01

    increase to 10,000 times the background rate should species threatened with extinction succumb to pressures they face (4). Reversing these trends is a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity's 2020 Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and its 20 Aichi Targets and is explicitly incorporated...... into the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We identify major gaps in data available for assessing global biodiversity threats and suggest mechanisms for closing them....

  12. Military Expenditure, Threats, and Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Aizenman, Joshua; Glick, Reuven

    2003-01-01

    This paper clarifies one of the puzzling results of the economic growth literature: the impact of military expenditure is frequently found to be non-significant or negative, yet most countries spend a large fraction of their GDP on defense and the military. We start by empirical evaluation of the non- linear interactions between military expenditure, external threats, corruption, and other relevant controls. While growth falls with higher levels of military spending, given the values of the o...

  13. Autobiographical memory sources of threats in dreams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafrenière, Alexandre; Lortie-Lussier, Monique; Dale, Allyson; Robidoux, Raphaëlle; De Koninck, Joseph

    2018-02-01

    Temporal sources of dream threats were examined through the paradigm of the Threat Simulation Theory. Two groups of young adults (18-24 years old), who did not experience severe threatening events in the year preceding their dream and reported a dream either with or without threats, were included. Participants (N = 119) kept a log of daily activities and a dream diary, indicating whether dream components referred to past experiences. The occurrence of oneiric threats correlated with the reporting of threats in the daily logs, their average severity, and the stress level experienced the day preceding the dream. The group whose dreams contained threats had significantly more references to temporal categories beyond one year than the group with dreams without threats. Our findings suggest that in the absence of recent highly negative emotional experiences, the threat simulation system selects memory traces of threatening events experienced in the past. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Threat Assessment: Do Lone Terrorists Differ from Other Lone Offenders?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diane M. Zierhoffer

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the viability of a threat assessment model developed to calculate the risk of targeted violence as a predictor of violence by potential lone terrorists. There is no profile, to date, which would assist in the identification of a lone terrorist prior to an attack. The threat assessment model developed by Borum, Fein, Vossekuil, and Berglund and described in “Threat Assessment: Defining an approach for evaluating risk of targeted violence” (1999 poses ten questions about the patterns of thinking and behaviors that may precipitate an attack of targeted violence. Three terrorists are studied to assess the model’s value as a predictor of terrorism. It is assessed for its use within law enforcement, during an investigation of someone brought to attention as a possible terrorist and for family members or friends who suspect potential terrorist behavior. Would these questions encourage someone to report a friend to prevent a possible attack? This threat assessment model provides a foundation for future research focused on developing a structured risk assessment for lone terrorists. In its present form, the questions can assist both citizens and law enforcement personnel in identifying the patterns of thought and behavior potentially indicative of a lone terrorist.

  15. PORT SECURITY-Threats and Vulnerabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Kusi, Bernard

    2015-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to identify the threats and the vulnerabilities concerning Takoradi port, and finally recommend measure to overcome the identified threats and vul-nerabilities. Various categories of potential threats and vulnerabilities have been studied throughout the literature review. However, because each port presents a unique sets of threats and vulnerabilities, there was a need to look critically into how Takoradi port operations are being conducted in other to ide...

  16. Threat Prioritization Process for the Czech Security Strategy Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milos Balaban

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This article offers systematic view of a process of identification of security threats and, subsequently, their use in the making of strategic documents, notably the Security Strategy of the Czech Republic. It is not the aim of the authors to name or define such threats, but to present the process itself. It is paramount to any credible security strategy that it deals with the threat identification in the most precise fashion. The authors take reservations against the “catalogue” approach and claim the processes of prioritization and categorization to be essential for any policies derived from the security strategy, especially in times of economic need. It is also the 2011 final paper of the project “Trends, Risks, and Scenarios of the Security Developments in the World, Europe, and the Czech Republic – Impacts on the Policy and Security System of the Czech Republic” (TRS / VG20102013009.

  17. The role of prevention focus under stereotype threat: Initial cognitive mobilization is followed by depletion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ståhl, Tomas; Van Laar, Colette; Ellemers, Naomi

    2012-06-01

    Previous research has demonstrated that stereotype threat induces a prevention focus and impairs central executive functions. The present research examines how these 2 consequences of stereotype threat are related. The authors argue that the prevention focus is responsible for the effects of stereotype threat on executive functions and cognitive performance. However, because the prevention focus is adapted to deal with threatening situations, the authors propose that it also leads to some beneficial responses to stereotype threat. Specifically, because stereotype threat signals a high risk of failure, a prevention focus initiates immediate recruitment of cognitive control resources. The authors further argue that this response initially facilitates cognitive performance but that the additional cognitive demands associated with working under threat lead to cognitive depletion over time. Study 1 demonstrates that stereotype threat (vs. control) facilitates immediate cognitive control capacity during a stereotype-relevant task. Study 2 experimentally demonstrates the process by showing that stereotype threat (vs. control) facilitates cognitive control as a default, as well as when a prevention focus has been experimentally induced, but not when a promotion focus has been induced. Study 3 shows that stereotype threat facilitates initial math performance under a prevention focus, whereas no effect is found under a promotion focus. Consistent with previous research, however, stereotype threat impaired math performance over time under a prevention focus, but not under a promotion focus. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

  18. Stereotype Threat, Test Anxiety, and Mathematics Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tempel, Tobias; Neumann, Roland

    2014-01-01

    We investigated the combined effects of stereotype threat and trait test anxiety on mathematics test performance. Stereotype threat and test anxiety interacted with each other in affecting performance. Trait test anxiety predicted performance only in a diagnostic condition that prevented stereotype threat by stereotype denial. A state measure of…

  19. Potential Threats of Information Disclosure in Social Media: a Systematic Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Yulianto

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Along with the growth of social media, a variety of potential threats to users is also increasing. These kinds of threats often occur because the users accidentally or unknowingly disclose their information or identity on social media. Threats resulted from the disclosure of information are needed to be known so that the users can understand the risks that arise and take precautions. This research was aimed to summarize the potential threats arising from the information disclosure in social media. The research method used was a systematic literature review to explore and summarize the literatures that discuss the specific topic. The research results show that the potential threats are mostly social threats and identity theft. 

  20. The nuclear threat. 6. enl. ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, G.

    1993-01-01

    This is the sixth edition of 'The last days and end of time', augmented by a foreword, which was first published in 1972. The reflections it contains cannot become outdated because their object: the risk of global catastrophe, persists. But it continues to exist not only because we can never now hope to efface what knowledge we have of self-annihilation methods, but also because we have become frighteningly used to the fact of being threatened. What we fight is not this or that adversary who attacks, or might be got rid of, by nuclear means, but the nuclear situation as such. Since this enemy is the enemy of all human beings, those who up to now have considered each other as adversaries should rally as allies against the common threat. (orig./HP) [de

  1. Anomaly metrics to differentiate threat sources from benign sources in primary vehicle screening.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, Israel Dov; Mengesha, Wondwosen

    2011-09-01

    Discrimination of benign sources from threat sources at Port of Entries (POE) is of a great importance in efficient screening of cargo and vehicles using Radiation Portal Monitors (RPM). Currently RPM's ability to distinguish these radiological sources is seriously hampered by the energy resolution of the deployed RPMs. As naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) are ubiquitous in commerce, false alarms are problematic as they require additional resources in secondary inspection in addition to impacts on commerce. To increase the sensitivity of such detection systems without increasing false alarm rates, alarm metrics need to incorporate the ability to distinguish benign and threat sources. Principal component analysis (PCA) and clustering technique were implemented in the present study. Such techniques were investigated for their potential to lower false alarm rates and/or increase sensitivity to weaker threat sources without loss of specificity. Results of the investigation demonstrated improved sensitivity and specificity in discriminating benign sources from threat sources.

  2. Why did the meerkat cross the road? Flexible adaptation of phylogenetically-old behavioural strategies to modern-day threats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Perony

    Full Text Available Risk-sensitive adaptive spatial organisation during group movement has been shown to efficiently minimise the risks associated with external ecological threats. Whether animals can draw on such behaviours when confronted with man-made threats is generally less clear. We studied road-crossing in a wild, but habituated, population of meerkats living in the Kalahari Desert, South Africa. We found that dominant females, the core member in meerkat social systems, led groups to the road significantly more often than subordinates, yet were consistently less likely to cross first. Our results suggest that a reshuffling occurs in progression order when meerkat groups reach the road. By employing a simple model of collective movement, we have shown that risk aversion alone may be sufficient to explain this reshuffling, but that the risk aversion of dominant females toward road crossing is significantly higher than that of subordinates. It seems that by not crossing first, dominant females avoid occupying the most risky, exposed locations, such as at the front of the group--a potential selfish strategy that also promotes the long-term stability and hence reproductive output of their family groups. We argue that our findings support the idea that animals can flexibly apply phylogenetically-old behavioural strategies to deal with emerging modern-day problems.

  3. Assessment of terrorist threats to the Canadian energy sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shull, A. [Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON (Canada). Norman Paterson School of International Affairs]|[Ottawa Univ., ON (Canada). Faculty of Law

    2006-03-15

    A critical terrorist threat assessment of Canadian energy systems was presented, as well as an analysis of integrated continental systems. Recent responses to heightened threat levels on the part of the Canadian government have ranged from information sharing to emergency preparedness and disaster mitigation strategies. This paper examined threats that the energy sector has traditionally encountered and argued that response capabilities do not match current threats posed by terrorism. The potential of a terrorist attack on the Canadian energy infrastructure is significant and has been referred to as a possible target by terrorist organizations. Actions taken by the Canadian government in response to heightened threat levels were examined. A review of energy industry security measures included outlines of: the natural gas industry, the electric sector, and nuclear reactors and waste. It was noted that not all elements of the critical energy infrastructure share the same level of risk. Recommendations included increased information sharing between government agencies and the private sector; resiliency standards in densely populated areas; and insulating the energy grid against a cascading blackout through the use of DC rather than AC lines. 59 refs.

  4. Assessment of terrorist threats to the Canadian energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shull, A.

    2006-01-01

    A critical terrorist threat assessment of Canadian energy systems was presented, as well as an analysis of integrated continental systems. Recent responses to heightened threat levels on the part of the Canadian government have ranged from information sharing to emergency preparedness and disaster mitigation strategies. This paper examined threats that the energy sector has traditionally encountered and argued that response capabilities do not match current threats posed by terrorism. The potential of a terrorist attack on the Canadian energy infrastructure is significant and has been referred to as a possible target by terrorist organizations. Actions taken by the Canadian government in response to heightened threat levels were examined. A review of energy industry security measures included outlines of: the natural gas industry, the electric sector, and nuclear reactors and waste. It was noted that not all elements of the critical energy infrastructure share the same level of risk. Recommendations included increased information sharing between government agencies and the private sector; resiliency standards in densely populated areas; and insulating the energy grid against a cascading blackout through the use of DC rather than AC lines. 59 refs

  5. Toward the elucidation of factors concerning the individual difference of radiation sensitivity, and the reduction of radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nenoi, Mitsuru; Nakajima, Tetsuo; Wang, Bing

    2013-01-01

    This article describes studies aiming at the title subject and contains 2 topics of genetic and non-genetic factors modifying the radiation sensitivity. The ultimate purposes of those studies are the introduction of individual weighting factor to correct the individual differences of the sensitivity (IDS) and the practical control of the sensitivity-concerned factors, in the field of medical exposure. For genetic factors, described are studies on factors modifying the sensitivity at DNA repair and on the control of the sensitivity through the DNA repairing factors. The former, using cultured cells, aims at identifying protein (gene) of possible biomarker for IDS in non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ), an important mechanism in repairing the double strand break of DNA. Ku protein is found as the candidate. The latter has revealed that cells lacking Artemis, XRCC4 or MDC1 gene are highly sensitive, and are planning to suppress Artemis activity artificially, which may lead to the reduction of radiation cancer formation due to the death of highly sensitive cells. For non-genetic factors, described are studies on the life habits modifying the sensitivity, on the control of the sensitivity through the radiation-induced adaptive response and with steroid hormone. In the first, in mice treated with high-calorie diet and X-irradiation, a possible radiation response is suggested in the hepatic DNA-methylation and micro-RNA. Second, the combination of radiation adaptive response in the genome damage and restriction of diet ingestion is shown to lower the sensitivity of mice with use of C, Ne ion or X-ray irradiation. Third, in studies on the radiation-induced formation and condensation of breast cancer stem cells in the presence of progesterone, the hormone is found to produce micro-RNA molecules relating with the suppression of cellular senescence and repressed carcinogenesis with over-expression of apoptosis inhibitory molecules. (T.T.)

  6. Risk of sensitization in healthy adults following repeated administration of rdESAT-6 skin test reagent by the Mantoux injection technique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lillebaek, Troels; Bergstedt, Winnie; Tingskov, Pernille N

    2009-01-01

    1 open clinical trial was to assess the sensitization risk and safety of repeated administration of rdESAT-6 reagent in 31 healthy adult volunteers. Three groups of volunteers received two fixed doses of 0.1 microg rdESAT-6 28, 56 or 112 days apart, respectively. After the second injection...... of 31 (3%) volunteers showed a positive skin reaction (sensitization) upon a second injection of rdESAT-6 after 28days and an increased IFN-gamma response to ESAT-6. For 7 (23%) of the volunteers, local adverse reactions related to the product were registered, but all reactions were mild and predictable...

  7. Improving Visual Threat Detection: Research to Validate the Threat Detection Skills Trainer

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    26 Threat Detection and Mitigation Strategies...quicker when identifying threats in relevant locations. This task utilized the Flicker paradigm (Rensink, O’Regan, & Clark, 1997; Scholl, 2000...the meaning and implication of threats, why cues were relevant, strategies used to detect and mitigate threats, and challenges when attempting to

  8. Best Practices and Controls for Mitigating Insider Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-08

    Every Organization Should Know Twitter #CERTinsiderthreat © 2013 Carnegie Mellon University MERIT CORP Man-in-the-Middle (MITM) Proxy SSL / TLS ...Handshake SSL / TLS Handshake Managing The Insider Threat: What Every Organization Should Know Twitter #CERTinsiderthreat © 2013 Carnegie Mellon...to upload attachments present an opportunity for sensitive data to leave the organization. •  Communications that are secured with SSL encryption

  9. Insulin sensitivity and clustering of coronary heart disease risk factors in young adults. The Northern Ireland Young Hearts Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars Bo; Boreham, Colin A.G.; Young, Ian S.

    2006-01-01

    risk factor. Subjects with clustered risk were defined as those displaying four or more risk factors. Blood glucose and insulin were measured in the fasting state and 2 h after ingestion of a 75 g glucose load. Results. Fasting insulin and the homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance score (HOMA......) were strong, graded predictors of clustered risk. The odds ratio (OR) for having clustered risk was 10.8 (95% CI: 3.6-32.4) for the upper quartile of fasting insulin compared to the lowest quartile, and the corresponding OR for HOMA was 23.2 (95% CI: 5.3-101.6). Conclusion. HOMA score predicts...

  10. Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

  11. Threat driven modeling framework using petri nets for e-learning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khamparia, Aditya; Pandey, Babita

    2016-01-01

    Vulnerabilities at various levels are main cause of security risks in e-learning system. This paper presents a modified threat driven modeling framework, to identify the threats after risk assessment which requires mitigation and how to mitigate those threats. To model those threat mitigations aspects oriented stochastic petri nets are used. This paper included security metrics based on vulnerabilities present in e-learning system. The Common Vulnerability Scoring System designed to provide a normalized method for rating vulnerabilities which will be used as basis in metric definitions and calculations. A case study has been also proposed which shows the need and feasibility of using aspect oriented stochastic petri net models for threat modeling which improves reliability, consistency and robustness of the e-learning system.

  12. The nuclear threat; La menace nucleaire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tertrais, Bruno

    2011-01-26

    For a long time, a small group of big powers has been the only holder of nuclear weapons (US, USSR, Great Britain, France and China). Since then, new weapons have come out on the geopolitical scene: Israel, India, Pakistan, and some others remain uncertain and generate a worrying atmosphere (North Korea, Iran..). But what is the real risk with nuclear proliferation? Should we dread about it? Is nuclear terrorism a real threat? What are the political stakes of nuclear weapons? Is disarmament a real solution? These are some of the questions that the author answers in a precise and clear manner in this book. Contents: 1 - from monopoly to proliferation: who owns nuclear weapons today, why is it so coveted, is it easy to make one?; 2 - the newcomers: what do we really know about the Iranian nuclear programme, Iran and North Korea: between negotiation and confrontation; 3 - international control and regulation: do we have reliable information, how do we know what we know, Iraq: was there a 'lie' somewhere, who are the states who have renounced nuclear weapons?; 4 - the future: is there still a nuclear warfare risk, what if Pakistani weapons fall into islamic hands, is nuclear terrorism a fantasy or a real risk?

  13. New threats to academic freedom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minerva, Francesca

    2014-05-01

    Using a specific case as an example, the article argues that the Internet allows dissemination of academic ideas to the general public in ways that can sometimes pose a threat to academic freedom. Since academic freedom is a fundamental element of academia and since it benefits society at large, it is important to safeguard it. Among measures that can be taken in order to achieve this goal, the publication of anonymous research seems to be a good option. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. The threat of nuclear war

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    This report aims to describe the present threat of nuclear war, with particular reference to New Zealand, and the increasing concern felt by many scientists, from a scientific viewpoint but in non-technical language. It surveys what is known about nuclear weapons and the consequences of their use, and attention is drawn to the importance of penetrating the language and examining the assumptions made in the propaganda about n uclear deterrence . The tasks involved in maintaining the present peace and attempting to establish an agreed disarmament is examined. The report pays particular attention to the roles of scientists in these endeavours

  15. Stereotype threat and female communication styles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Hippel, Courtney; Wiryakusuma, Cindy; Bowden, Jessica; Shochet, Megan

    2011-10-01

    A large body of research has documented the performance-debilitating effects of stereotype threat for individuals, but there is a paucity of research exploring interpersonal consequences of stereotype threat. Two experiments tested the hypothesis that stereotype threat would change the style in which women communicate. Results indicate that women who experience stereotype threat regarding leadership abilities react against the stereotype by adopting a more masculine communication style. Study 2 provides evidence that self-affirmation eliminates this effect of stereotype threat on women's communication styles. A third study demonstrates an ironic consequence of this effect of stereotype threat on women's communication--when women under stereotype threat adopt a more masculine communication style, they are rated as less warm and likeable, and evaluators indicate less willingness to comply with their requests. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

  16. Behavioral measures of risk tasking, sensation seeking and sensitivity to reward may reflect different motivations for spicy food liking and consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrnes, Nadia K; Hayes, John E

    2016-08-01

    Based on work a quarter century ago, it is widely accepted personality traits like sensation seeking are related to the enjoyment and intake of spicy foods; however, data supporting this belief is actually quite limited. Recently, we reported strong to moderate correlations between remembered spicy food liking and two personality traits measured with validated questionnaires. Here, participants consumed capsaicin-containing strawberry jelly to generate acute estimates of spicy food liking. Additionally, we used a laboratory-based behavioral measure of risk taking (the mobile Balloon Analogue Risk Task; mBART) to complement a range of validated self-report measures of risk-related personality traits. Present data confirm Sensation Seeking correlates with overall spicy meal liking and liking of the burn of a spicy meal, and extends prior findings by showing novel correlations with the liking of sampled stimuli. Other personality measures, including Sensitivity to Punishment (SP), Sensitivity to Reward (SR), and the Impulsivity and Risk Taking subscales of the DSM5 Personality Inventory (PID-5) did not show significant relationships with liking of spicy foods, either sampled or remembered. Our behavioral risk taking measure, the mBART, also failed to show a relationship with remembered or sampled liking. However, significant relationships were observed between reported intake of spicy foods and Sensitivity to Reward, and the Risk Taking subscale of the PID-5 (PID5-RT). Based on the observed patterns among various personality measures, and spicy food liking and intake, we propose that personality measures may exert their influence on intake of spicy food via different mechanisms. We also speculate that Sensation Seeking may reflect motivations for consuming spicy foods that are more intrinsic, while the motivations for eating spicy foods measured by SR and PID5-RT may be more extrinsic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. High Behavioral Approach System (BAS) sensitivity, reward responsiveness, and goal-striving predict first onset of bipolar spectrum disorders: a prospective behavioral high-risk design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alloy, Lauren B; Bender, Rachel E; Whitehouse, Wayne G; Wagner, Clara A; Liu, Richard T; Grant, David A; Jager-Hyman, Shari; Molz, Ashleigh; Choi, James Y; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Abramson, Lyn Y

    2012-05-01

    A prospective, behavioral high-risk design provided a theoretically guided examination of vulnerability to first onset of bipolar spectrum disorder based on the Behavioral Approach System (BAS) model. Adolescents (ages 14-19) at an "age of risk" for bipolar disorder onset were screened on BAS sensitivity by interviewers blind to current symptoms, lifetime history, and family history of psychopathology. Participants were selected with high versus moderate levels of BAS sensitivity and administered a lifetime diagnostic interview. Those with a bipolar spectrum disorder, psychosis, or hypomanic episode with onset prior to the BAS sensitivity assessment were excluded. High BAS (n = 171) and moderate BAS (n = 119) sensitivity participants in the final sample completed baseline measures of symptoms, goal-setting, and reward responsiveness and were followed prospectively with semistructured diagnostic interviews every 6 months. Consistent with the vulnerability hypothesis of the BAS model of bipolar disorder, high BAS participants had a greater likelihood, and shorter time to onset, of bipolar spectrum disorder than moderate BAS participants across an average of 12.8 months of follow-up (12.9% vs. 4.2%), controlling for baseline depressive and hypomanic symptoms, and family history of bipolar disorder. High reward responsiveness on a behavioral task and ambitious goal-striving for popular fame and financial success (but not impulsivity) also predicted first onset of bipolar spectrum disorder controlling for the covariates and BAS risk group, and ambitious goal-striving partially mediated the BAS risk group effect. We discuss implications of the findings for the BAS model of bipolar disorder and early intervention efforts.

  18. Beneficial role of vitamin K supplementation on insulin sensitivity, glucose metabolism, and the reduced risk of type 2 diabetes: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manna, Prasenjit; Kalita, Jatin

    2016-01-01

    Micronutrients are gaining acceptance as an important nutritional therapy for the prevention and/or management of diabetes and its associated health risks. Although a very small quantity of micronutrients are required for specific functions in our bodies, moderate deficiencies can lead to serious health issues. Impaired insulin sensitivity and glucose intolerance play a major role in the development of diabetic pathophysiology. Vitamin K is well known for its function in blood coagulation. Moreover, several human studies reported the beneficial role of vitamin K supplementation in improving insulin sensitivity and glucose tolerance, preventing insulin resistance, and reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2 D). Both animal and human studies have suggested that vitamin K-dependent protein (osteocalcin [OC]), regulation of adipokine levels, antiinflammatory properties, and lipid-lowering effects may mediate the beneficial function of vitamin K in insulin sensitivity and glucose tolerance. This review for the first time provides an overview of the currently available preclinical and clinical evidences on the effect of vitamin K supplementation in the management of insulin sensitivity and glucose tolerance. The outcome of this review will increase understanding for the development of a novel adjuvant therapy to achieve better control of glycemia and improve the lives of diabetic patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Insider Threat to Computer Security at Nuclear Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    West, Rebecca Lynn [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2018-01-29

    After completing this session, you should be able to: Describe the Insider Threat; Characterize the cyber insider threat; Describe preventive measures against the insider threat; Describe protective measures against the insider threat.

  20. A Quantitative Threats Analysis for the Florida Manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.

    2007-01-01

    The Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an endangered marine mammal endemic to the southeastern United States. The primary threats to manatee populations are collisions with watercraft and the potential loss of warm-water refuges. For the purposes of listing, recovery, and regulation under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), an understanding of the relative effects of the principal threats is needed. This work is a quantitative approach to threats analysis, grounded in the assumption that an appropriate measure of status under the ESA is based on the risk of extinction, as quantified by the probability of quasi-extinction. This is related to the qualitative threats analyses that are more common under the ESA, but provides an additional level of rigor, objectivity, and integration. In this approach, our philosophy is that analysis of the five threat factors described in Section 4(a)(1) of the ESA can be undertaken within an integrated quantitative framework. The basis of this threats analysis is a comparative population viability analysis. This involves forecasting the Florida manatee population under different scenarios regarding the presence of threats, while accounting for process variation (environmental, demographic, and catastrophic stochasticity) as well as parametric and structural uncertainty. We used the manatee core biological model (CBM) for this viability analysis, and considered the role of five threats: watercraft-related mortality, loss of warm-water habitat in winter, mortality in water-control structures, entanglement, and red tide. All scenarios were run with an underlying parallel structure that allowed a more powerful estimation of the effects of the various threats. The results reflect our understanding of manatee ecology (as captured in the structure of the CBM), our estimates of manatee demography (as described by the parameters in the model), and our characterization of the mechanisms by which the threats act on manatees. As an

  1. Radioecological sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, Brenda J.; Strand, Per; Assimakopoulos, Panayotis

    2003-01-01

    After the release of radionuclide into the environment it is important to be able to readily identify major routes of radiation exposure, the most highly exposed individuals or populations and the geographical areas of most concern. Radioecological sensitivity can be broadly defined as the extent to which an ecosystem contributes to an enhanced radiation exposure to Man and biota. Radioecological sensitivity analysis integrates current knowledge on pathways, spatially attributes the underlying processes determining transfer and thereby identifies the most radioecologically sensitive areas leading to high radiation exposure. This identifies where high exposure may occur and why. A framework for the estimation of radioecological sensitivity with respect to humans is proposed and the various indicators by which it can be considered have been identified. These are (1) aggregated transfer coefficients (Tag), (2) action (and critical) loads, (3) fluxes and (4) individual exposure of humans. The importance of spatial and temporal consideration of all these outputs is emphasized. Information on the extent of radionuclide transfer and exposure to humans at different spatial scales is needed to reflect the spatial differences which can occur. Single values for large areas, such as countries, can often mask large variation within the country. Similarly, the relative importance of different pathways can change with time and therefore assessments of radiological sensitivity are needed over different time periods after contamination. Radioecological sensitivity analysis can be used in radiation protection, nuclear safety and emergency preparedness when there is a need to identify areas that have the potential of being of particular concern from a risk perspective. Prior identification of radioecologically sensitive areas and exposed individuals improve the focus of emergency preparedness and planning, and contribute to environmental impact assessment for future facilities. The

  2. The CBRNE Threat Needs New Dedicated Analysers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stienstra, S.

    2007-01-01

    Introduction: After the 9-11 attack by terrorists several governments realized their vulnerability towards creative asymmetric attacks. Due to increasing complexity of our society we create more vulnerability towards terror attacks. More chemical substances than we realize can be misused to destabilize our modern society. Recently aircraft passengers were confronted with new regulations, which limit the amount of fluid, which a passenger can bring on board with hand luggage. How far should we go limiting the allowance to bring liquids and substances on board? It indicates that we need new analytic instruments for screening the safety of luggage in all types of transport. Study Design: An inventory was made of the present demand for safe transport and its vulnerability to terror attacks. Also the safety and safety awareness in public buildings, offices and industrial complexes was assessed. Knowing the demand for a certain safety level, an inventory was made to identify analytical equipment, which can be used to check passengers and luggage on possible threats. The same can be used for protecting public areas, offices and industrial complexes. Results And Discussion: It is amazing how some governments, financially driven, underestimate the consequences of CBRNE incidences and disasters. Both threats due to release of dangerous substances just by accident and deliberate abuse of chemicals and/or biologicals by terror organizations is underestimated. Financial rationales are often the cause that the preparedness is less that technically could be possible. Still some commercial companies realize the importance of safety and preparedness towards terror attacks and take their precautions. Several detection systems are now under development and a new market of safety devices comes into existence. Conclusion: Key question is how far we would like to go with defending us with technical devices against potential terror attacks. Also the design of buildings, transport

  3. Countering the Nuclear Terrorist Threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vantine, H C

    2002-01-01

    The nuclear/radioactive threat to homeland security posed by terrorists can be broken into four categories. Of highest concern is the use of an improvised nuclear device (IND). An IND, as its name implies, is a nuclear explosive device. It produces nuclear yield, and this nuclear yield has catastrophic effects. An IND is the ultimate terrorist weapon, and terrorist groups are actively attempting to acquire nuclear weapons. Detonation of an IND could dwarf the devastation of the September 11 attack on the World Trade Center. Dealing with the aftermath of an IND would be horrific. Rescue efforts and cleanup would be hazardous and difficult. Workers would have to wear full protection suits and self-contained breathing apparatus. Because of the residual radioactivity, in certain locations they could only work short times before acquiring their ''lifetime'' dose. As with the Chernobyl event, some rescue workers might well expose themselves to lethal doses of radiation, adding to the casualty toll. Enormous volumes of contaminated debris would have to be removed and disposed. If a terrorist group decides not to pursue an actual nuclear device, it might well turn to Radiological Dispersal Devices (RDDs) or ''dirty bombs'' as they are often called. RDDs spread radioactivity but they do not generate nuclear yield. The fabrication of an RDD requires radioactive material and a dispersal mechanism. Radioactive materials are used all over the world for medical, industrial, and research applications. Standards for safe handling and accountability of radioactive material vary around the world. Stories in the press suggest inadequate controls on radiological materials in parts of the world. The effects of an RDD vary widely, and are measured in terms of contamination area, health effects to the exposed population, and economic consequences. Even a negligible, but measurable, exposure would exploit the general public's fear of things radioactive and would have significant

  4. The air's got to be far cleaner here: a discursive analysis of place-identity threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugh-Jones, Siobhan; Madill, Anna

    2009-12-01

    That talk is never disinterested complicates the relationship between the environment and the claims people make about it. Talk about place, and one's self in it, is particularly complex when the environment poses risk or is otherwise problematized. This study, a secondary analysis of interview data, seeks to extend discursive work on place-identity by examining the ways in which 14 residents of a small English village talk about themselves and their locale. The locale accommodates an active quarry, and many residents had lodged complaints to the quarry about dust, noise and vibrations from blasting. Attention to the interactional context of the interviews illustrates the ways in which (simply) interviewing people about their locale can threaten self- and place-identity. When asked about life in the village, interviewees oriented to two main dilemmas in protecting self- and place-identity: (1) how to justify continued residence in a challenging environment and (2) how to complain about the locale whilst maintaining positive place-identity. Discursive responses to these dilemmas drew upon typical identity processes, such as self- and place distinctiveness and the formulation of out-groups, as well as upon constructions of localized power-sharing and morally obligated tolerance of risk. We suggest that research on problematical places, and of environmental risk, needs to be sensitized to how it may constitute a threat to self- and place-identity, and how this may mediate formulations self and place, as well as of environmental risk.

  5. Effect of evaluation threat on procrastination behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bui, Ngoc H

    2007-06-01

    The author evaluated the effects of evaluation apprehension and trait procrastination on behaviors. The author examined private university students from southern California (N = 72) on two independent variables: evaluation threat (manipulated) and trait procrastination (nonmanipulated). The author found a significant interaction effect between type of evaluation threat and level of trait procrastination on the number of days to complete an assigned essay. Post hoc analyses showed high trait procrastinators in the high evaluation threat group significantly delayed returning essays compared with those in the low evaluation threat group. Also, in the low evaluation threat group, low trait procrastinators delayed more than did high trait procrastinators. These results suggest that educators can reduce behavioral delays by increasing evaluation threat, depending on a student's level of trait procrastination.

  6. Does imminent threat capture and hold attention?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Ernst H W; Crombez, Geert; Van Damme, Stefaan; Verschuere, Bruno; De Houwer, Jan

    2004-09-01

    According to models of attention and emotion, threat captures and holds attention. In behavioral tasks, robust evidence has been found for attentional holding but not for attentional capture by threat. An important explanation for the absence of attentional capture effects is that the visual stimuli used posed no genuine threat. The present study investigated whether visual cues that signal an aversive white noise can elicit attentional capture and holding effects. Cues presented in an attentional task were simultaneously provided with a threat value through an aversive conditioning procedure. Response latencies showed that threatening cues captured and held attention. These results support recent views on attention to threat, proposing that imminent threat captures attention in everyone. (c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved

  7. Considering threats of nuclear terrorism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Satoshi

    2013-01-01

    Anti-terrorism measures of nuclear power station in Japan consisted of three physical protection areas separated into limited access area, protected area with disposition of riot police riding in special guard vehicle, and inner area. Drilling of measures to protect against terrorism had been conducted based on design basis threat (DBT) and effectiveness of anti-terrorism measures corresponding with updated DBT had been evaluated by the inspection. Since nuclear power station had been target of terrorism using bomb, aircraft or military operation in overseas countries, anti-terrorism measures of nuclear power station in Japan should be paid more attention so as to overcome their weakness supported by Government's commitments like United States. (T. Tanaka)

  8. Global threat reduction initiative (GTRI)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamberlain, Travis

    2009-01-01

    The Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI) is a vital part of the global efforts to combat nuclear terrorism. GTRI's unique mission to reduce and protect vulnerable nuclear and radiological material located at civilian sites both in the United States and abroad directly addresses recommendations of the bipartisan 9/11 Commission. GTRI efforts are focused on the first line of defense, namely securing or removing vulnerable nuclear and radiological material at the source. The international community has promulgated guidance on the best practice on the technical and administrative aspects of radiological source security, and the GTRI seeks to provide technical assistance to national bodies and individual facilities to adopt this best practice. This presentation will discuss security concepts that are implemented by the GTRI in cooperation with the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organization's Regional Security of Radioactive Sources Project. (author)

  9. Real threat of nuclear smuggling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, P.; Woessner, P.N.

    1996-01-01

    Trade in uranium and plutonium during the past five years has given smuggling unprecedented relevance to international security. Yet there is considerable controversy over the threat nuclear smuggling poses. Even though serious efforts are being made to attack the problem at the source, the international community has been slow to respond to the dangers that nuclear smuggling presents. We suggest that systematic multinational measures be taken as soon as possible to inhibit theft at the source, to disrupt trafficking and to deter buyers. The U.S., Germany, Russia and other nations with an interest in the nuclear problem should set up a 'flying squad' with an investigative arm, facilities for counter terrorist and counter extortion actions and a disaster management team. This paper discusses these issues. 3 refs

  10. Rhinitis symptoms and IgE sensitization as risk factors for development of later allergic rhinitis in adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødtger, Uffe; Poulsen, L K; Linneberg, A

    2006-01-01

    -examined in 1998. On both occasions questionnaires on rhinitis symptoms were completed and serum IgE (against birch, grass, mugwort, cat, dog, and Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus) were determined (positive if >or=0.35 kUA/l). Asymptomatic sensitization: positive IgE levels without any rhinitis symptoms. Nonallergic...

  11. Improving ecological risk assessment by including bioavailability into species sensitivity distributions: an example for plants exposed to nickel in soil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Semenzin, E.; Temminghoff, E.J.M.; Marcomini, A.

    2007-01-01

    The variability of species sensitivity distribution (SSD) due to contaminant bioavailability in soil was explored by using nickel as metal of concern. SSDs of toxicity test results of Avena sativa L. originating from different soils and expressed as total content and available (0.01 M CaCl2)

  12. Sensor-guided threat countermeasure system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart, Brent C.; Hackel, Lloyd A.; Hermann, Mark R.; Armstrong, James P.

    2012-12-25

    A countermeasure system for use by a target to protect against an incoming sensor-guided threat. The system includes a laser system for producing a broadband beam and means for directing the broadband beam from the target to the threat. The countermeasure system comprises the steps of producing a broadband beam and directing the broad band beam from the target to blind or confuse the incoming sensor-guided threat.

  13. Insider Threat Mitigation Workshop Instructional Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibbs, Philip [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Larsen, Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); O' Brien, Mike [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Rodriquez, Jose [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Insiders represent a formidable threat to nuclear facilities. This set of workshop materials covers methodologies to analyze and approaches to mitigate the threat of an insider attempting abrupt theft of nuclear materials. This report is a compilation of workshop materials consisting of lectures on technical and administrative measures used in Physical Protection (PP) and Material Control and Accounting (MC&A) and methods for analyzing their effectiveness against a postulated insider threat.

  14. Gender, Stereotype Threat and Mathematics Test Scores

    OpenAIRE

    Ming Tsui; Xiao Y. Xu; Edmond Venator

    2011-01-01

    Problem statement: Stereotype threat has repeatedly been shown to depress womens scores on difficult math tests. An attempt to replicate these findings in China found no support for the stereotype threat hypothesis. Our math test was characterized as being personally important for the student participants, an atypical condition in most stereotype threat laboratory research. Approach: To evaluate the effects of this personal demand, we conducted three experiments. Results: ...

  15. Security Risk Assessment Process for UAS in the NAS CNPC Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iannicca, Dennis Christopher; Young, Daniel Paul; Suresh, Thadhani; Winter, Gilbert A.

    2013-01-01

    This informational paper discusses the risk assessment process conducted to analyze Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) architectures for integrating civil Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS). The assessment employs the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Risk Management framework to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks to these architectures and recommends corresponding mitigating security controls. This process builds upon earlier work performed by RTCA Special Committee (SC) 203 and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to roadmap the risk assessment methodology and to identify categories of information security risks that pose a significant impact to aeronautical communications systems. A description of the deviations from the typical process is described in regards to this aeronautical communications system. Due to the sensitive nature of the information, data resulting from the risk assessment pertaining to threats, vulnerabilities, and risks is beyond the scope of this paper

  16. Evaluation of non-genomic, clinical risk and survival results in endocrine-sensitive, HER-2 negative, node negative breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena Cañada, José M; Gámez Casado, Salvador; Rodríguez Pérez, Lourdes; Quílez Cutillas, Alicia; Cortés Carmona, Cristina; Rosado Varela, Petra; Estalella Mendoza, Sara; Ramírez Daffós, Patricia; Benítez Rodríguez, Encarnación

    2018-02-28

    In endocrine-sensitive, HER-2 negative, node negative breast cancer, the presence of a low genomic risk allows treatment with adjuvant endocrine therapy alone, obtaining excellent survival rates. The justification for this study is to show that excellent survival rates are also obtained by treating with adjuvant hormone therapy alone, based on clinical risk assessment. A descriptive, observational and retrospective study was performed between 2006 and 2016 with endocrine-sensitive, HER-2 negative, node negative breast cancer, greater than 1cm or between 0.6 and 1cm with unfavourable features. Retrospective review of health records. Mortality data of the National Registry of Deaths. A total of 203 patients were evaluable for survival. One hundred and twenty-three (60.50%) were treated with adjuvant endocrine therapy alone, 77 (37.90%) with chemotherapy and endocrine therapy, one (0.50%) with chemotherapy alone and 2 (1%) were not treated. The overall survival rate at 5 years was 97% (95% confidence interval [CI] 94-100). Distant recurrence-free interval was 94% (95% CI 90-98). In the subgroup of patients treated with endocrine therapy alone, overall survival and distant recurrence-free interval rates at 5 years were 98% (95% CI 95-100) and 97% (95% CI 93-100), respectively. Patients with endocrine-sensitive, HER-2-negative, node negative breast cancer treated with endocrine therapy alone according to their clinical risk have similar survival outcomes as those treated with endocrine therapy according to their genomic risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  17. Information security practices emerging threats and perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Awad, Ahmed; Woungang, Isaac

    2017-01-01

    This book introduces novel research targeting technical aspects of protecting information security and establishing trust in the digital space. New paradigms, and emerging threats and solutions are presented in topics such as application security and threat management; modern authentication paradigms; digital fraud detection; social engineering and insider threats; cyber threat intelligence; intrusion detection; behavioral biometrics recognition; hardware security analysis. The book presents both the important core and the specialized issues in the areas of protection, assurance, and trust in information security practice. It is intended to be a valuable resource and reference for researchers, instructors, students, scientists, engineers, managers, and industry practitioners. .

  18. The role of perceived threat in the emergence of PTSD and depression symptoms during warzone deployment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancaster, Cynthia L; Cobb, Adam R; Lee, Han-Joo; Telch, Michael J

    2016-07-01

    Numerous studies have shown that level of exposure to combat-related stressors is a robust risk factor for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression among military personnel deployed to a warzone. Threat perception of warzone experiences assessed retrospectively has been consistently linked to increased risk for PTSD and depression months or even years after returning from deployment. However, little is known about concurrent relations between perceived threat, deployment stress, and stress-related symptoms during deployment. Using a novel in-theater web-based assessment system, we investigated the unique and joint contribution of threat perception and deployment stressors in predicting the emergence of PTSD and depression symptoms during deployment. Soldiers (N = 150) completed assessments of deployment stressors, perceived threat, PTSD symptoms, and depression symptoms throughout deployment to Iraq. Results revealed that perceived threat potentiated the increase in PTSD symptoms as a result of increases in deployment stressors. In contrast, perceived threat, but not warzone stressors, uniquely predicted depression symptoms. Results highlight the important role of threat perception as a risk marker for the acute experience of depression and PTSD symptoms during deployment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. A probabilistic method for species sensitivity distributions taking into account the inherent uncertainty and variability of effects to estimate environmental risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottschalk, Fadri; Nowack, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a method of probabilistically computing species sensitivity distributions (SSD) that is well-suited to cope with distinct data scarcity and variability. First, a probability distribution that reflects the uncertainty and variability of sensitivity is modeled for each species considered. These single species sensitivity distributions are then combined to create an SSD for a particular ecosystem. A probabilistic estimation of the risk is carried out by combining the probability of critical environmental concentrations with the probability of organisms being impacted negatively by these concentrations. To evaluate the performance of the method, we developed SSD and risk calculations for the aquatic environment exposed to triclosan. The case studies showed that the probabilistic results reflect the empirical information well, and the method provides a valuable alternative or supplement to more traditional methods for calculating SSDs based on averaging raw data and/or on using theoretical distributional forms. A comparison and evaluation with single SSD values (5th-percentile [HC5]) revealed the robustness of the proposed method. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  20. mHealth App for Risk Assessment of Pigmented and Nonpigmented Skin Lesions-A Study on Sensitivity and Specificity in Detecting Malignancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thissen, Monique; Udrea, Andreea; Hacking, Michelle; von Braunmuehl, Tanja; Ruzicka, Thomas

    2017-12-01

    With the advent of smartphone devices, an increasing number of mHealth applications that target melanoma identification have been developed, but none addresses the general context of melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancer identification. In this study a smartphone application using fractal and classical image analysis for the risk assessment of skin lesions is systematically evaluated to determine its sensitivity and specificity in the diagnosis of melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancer along with actinic keratosis and Bowen's disease. In the Department of Dermatology, Catharina Hospital Eindhoven, The Netherlands, 341 melanocytic and nonmelanocytic lesions were imaged using SkinVision app; 239 underwent histopathological examination, while the rest of 102 lesions were clinically diagnosed as clearly benign and not removed. The algorithm has been calibrated using the images of the first 233 lesions. The calibrated version of the algorithm was used in a subset of 108 lesions, and the obtained results were compared with the medical findings. On the 108 cases used for evaluation the algorithm scored 80% sensitivity and 78% specificity in detecting (pre)malignant conditions. Although less accurate than the dermatologist's clinical eye, the app may offer support to other professionals who are less familiar with differentiating between benign and malignant lesions. An mHealth application for the risk assessment of skin lesions was evaluated. It adds value to diagnosis tools of its type by taking into consideration pigmented and nonpigmented lesions all together and detecting signs of malignancy with high sensitivity.