Many Species, Many Threats: A Composite Risk Assessment of Climate Impacts for Salmonids in the Pacific Northwest

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, M. C.; Greene, C.; Beechie, T. J.; Raymond, C.

2016-02-01

The life cycles of salmonid species span freshwater, estuarine, and marine environments, exposing these economically, ecologically, and culturally important species to a wide variety of climate change threats. The diverse life histories of salmonids make them differentially vulnerable to climate change based on their use of different habitat types and the variability in climate change threats across these habitat types. Previous studies have focused mainly on assessing the vulnerability of particular life stages for a few species. Hence, we lack a broad perspective on how multiple climate threats are expected to impact the entire salmonid community, which spend much of their lives in marine waters. This lack of knowledge hampers our ability to prioritize various adaptation strategies for salmonid conservation. In order to conduct a more extensive vulnerability study of salmonids, we performed a life cycle-based risk assessment of climate change threats for nine species of salmonids (species within Oncorhynchus, Salvelinus, and Prosopium genera) inhabiting the Skagit River watershed, which is subject to an array of climate impacts. Our risk assessment integrated projections of impacts from various climate threats in freshwater, estuarine, and marine ecosystems with expert-based assessments of species-specific sensitivity and exposure. We found that projections (multiple global climate models under moderate emission scenarios) of both changes in magnitude and frequency of three flow-related freshwater impacts (flooding, low flows, and suspended sediment pulses) were more severe than threats in estuarine and marine habitats for which we could obtain projections. Combining projections with expert-based sensitivity and exposure scores revealed that these three threats exhibited the highest risk across all species. Of the nine species, the four most vulnerable were Chinook and coho salmon, steelhead, and bull trout. Even though these salmonids spend much of their lives

Threat/reward-sensitivity and hypomanic-personality modulate cognitive-control and attentional neural processes to emotional stimuli.

Science.gov (United States)

Pornpattananangkul, Narun; Hu, Xiaoqing; Nusslock, Robin

2015-11-01

Temperamental-traits (e.g. threat/reward-sensitivity) are found to modulate cognitive-control and attentional-processes. Yet, it is unclear exactly how these traits interact with emotional-stimuli in the modulation of cognitive-control, as reflected by the N2 event-related potential (ERP), and attentional-processes, as reflected by the P2 and P3 ERPs. Here in an ERP emotional-Go/NoGo task, 36 participants were instructed to inhibit their response to Fearful- and Happy-faces. Individual-differences in threat-sensitivity, reward-sensitivity and hypomanic-personality were assessed through self-report. Hypomanic-personality was assessed, given its relationship with reward-sensitivity and relevance to mood-disorder symptoms. Concerning cognitive-control, individuals with elevated threat-sensitivity displayed more-negative N2s to Happy-NoGo (relative to Fearful-NoGo) faces, whereas both individuals with elevated reward-sensitivity and hypomanic-personality displayed more-negative N2s to Fearful-NoGo (relative to Happy-NoGo) faces. Accordingly, when cognitive-control is required (during Go/NoGo), a mismatch between one's temperament and the valence of the NoGo-stimulus elevates detection of the need for cognitive-control. Conversely, the modulation of attentional-processing was specific to threat-sensitivity, as there was no relationship between either reward-sensitivity or hypomanic-personality and attentional-processing. Elevated threat-sensitivity was associated with enhanced early (P2s) and later (P3s) attentional-processing to Fearful-NoGo (relative to Happy-NoGo) faces. These latter findings support the negative attentional-bias model relating elevated threat-sensitivity with attentional-biases toward negative-stimuli and away from positive-stimuli. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risk perception and environmental health concerns in conditions of social security threat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolarova, D.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: this study explores the connection between the perception of different societal risk, health concerns and behavioral attitudes of people in condition of social security threat. Two small and two big industrial towns were chosen in order to observe the social and psychological price of the structural changes in the industry such as unemployment and its reflection on the households and the individuals' social attitudes. Key stakeholders were interviewed and questionnaire survey was carried out. The results showed high level of risk sensitivity and health concerns when people felt threatened by lack of social and economic security. The pollution was found to be important problem when it caused direct and obvious risk to human health and the environment. In the same time reverse environmental behavior like insensitiveness and neglectful attitude was observed in cases when the health consequences of the pollution were perceived to be unclear and with delayed effect. In situation of a great socio-economic threat noninvolvement helped the individuals to adapt. The research proved the influence of several risk characteristics on risk perception. It was found a connection between the risk perception and risk controllability, voluntariness of exposure and cost/benefits distribution. In the study areas respondents' judgments on these characteristics reflected directly their social status and material state. The study presented here is in progress - it i's supported by research grant from Open Society Foundation. (author)

Project risk as identity threat: explaining the development and consequences of risk discourse in an infrastructure project

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Os, A.; van Berkel, F.J.F.W.; de Gilder, T.C.; van Dyck, C.; Groenewegen, P.

2015-01-01

This paper explores the role of social identity threat in risk discourse in an infrastructure project, and the consequences risk discourse has for cooperation between stakeholders. We show that risks posed a threat to the identity of the project team, resulting in a discourse focused on attributing

The concept of risk in the design basis threat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynolds, J.M.

2001-01-01

Full text: Mathematically defined, risk is a product of one or more probability factors and one or more consequences. Actuarial analysis of risk requires the creation of a numeric algorithm that reflects the interaction of different probability factors, where probability data usually draws on direct measurements of incidence. For physical protection purposes, the algorithms take the general form: Risk = Probability of successful attack x Consequence where the overall probability of a successful attack will be determined by the product of, amongst other things, the probability of there being sufficient intent, the probability of there being available hostile resources, the probability of deterrence, and the probability that a hostile act will be detected and prevented. Deliberate, malevolent acts against nuclear facilities are rare. In so far as it is possible to make an actuarial type of judgement, the probability of malevolent activity against a nuclear facility is almost zero. This creates a problem for a numerical assessment of risk for nuclear facilities where the value (consequence) term could be almost infinite. As can be seen from the general equation above, a numerical algorithm of risk of malevolent activity affecting nuclear facilities could only yield a zero or infinite result. In such circumstances, intelligence-based threat assessments are sometimes thought of as a substitute for historic data in the determination of probability. However, if the paucity of historic data reflects the actual threat - which by and large it should - no amount of intelligence is likely to yield a substantially different conclusion. This mathematical approach to analysing risk appears to lead us either to no risk and no protection or to an infinite risk demanding every conceivable protective measure. The Design Basis Threat (DBT) approach offers a way out of the dilemma. Firstly, it allows us to eliminate from further consideration all zero or near zero probabilities

Threat and error management for anesthesiologists: a predictive risk taxonomy

Science.gov (United States)

Ruskin, Keith J.; Stiegler, Marjorie P.; Park, Kellie; Guffey, Patrick; Kurup, Viji; Chidester, Thomas

2015-01-01

Purpose of review Patient care in the operating room is a dynamic interaction that requires cooperation among team members and reliance upon sophisticated technology. Most human factors research in medicine has been focused on analyzing errors and implementing system-wide changes to prevent them from recurring. We describe a set of techniques that has been used successfully by the aviation industry to analyze errors and adverse events and explain how these techniques can be applied to patient care. Recent findings Threat and error management (TEM) describes adverse events in terms of risks or challenges that are present in an operational environment (threats) and the actions of specific personnel that potentiate or exacerbate those threats (errors). TEM is a technique widely used in aviation, and can be adapted for the use in a medical setting to predict high-risk situations and prevent errors in the perioperative period. A threat taxonomy is a novel way of classifying and predicting the hazards that can occur in the operating room. TEM can be used to identify error-producing situations, analyze adverse events, and design training scenarios. Summary TEM offers a multifaceted strategy for identifying hazards, reducing errors, and training physicians. A threat taxonomy may improve analysis of critical events with subsequent development of specific interventions, and may also serve as a framework for training programs in risk mitigation. PMID:24113268

Including threat actor capability and motivation in risk assessment for Smart GRIDs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rossebo, J.E.Y.; Fransen, F.; Luiijf, H.A.M.

2016-01-01

The SEGRID (Security for Smart Electricity GRIDs) collaboration project, funded by the EU under the FP7 program investigates risk assessment methodologies and their possible need for enhancement. In this paper we discuss the need to include threat actor analysis in threat, vulnerability and risk

The DANGERTOME Personal Risk Threat Assessment Scale: An Instrument to Help Aid Immediate Threat Assessment for Counselors, Faculty, and Teachers

Science.gov (United States)

Juhnke, Gerald A.

2010-01-01

Threats of violence are not uncommon to counselors, faculty, or teachers. Each must be taken seriously, quickly analyzed, and safety procedures implemented. Yet, there exists a paucity of brief, face-to-face, assessments designed to aid threat assessment. To address this paucity, the author created The DANGERTOME Personal Risk Threat Assessment…

Asymmetric Threats and Risks of the XXI Century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doncev, A.

2007-01-01

The rapid technology development in the 21st century has a great influence over the dynamic arm competition, thus threats and risks increasing. They are sublimated in different forms of international terrorism and could produce crisis in the Region, and furthermore all round the world. The international community is faced with new challenges. Now, the territories are not the only targets of attacks. The result of the theoretical and empirical research leads towards to the non-existence of national crisis management capacity. The paper identifies the international scenario which is very complex and unpredictable in the diapason of the asymmetric threats, as well as a new priorities agenda of the international community in the 21st century. Therefore, a risk management model is suggested, too.(author)

Security, Privacy, Threats and Risks in Cloud Computing ― A Vital Review

OpenAIRE

Goyal, Sumit

2016-01-01

Cloud computing is a multi million dollar business. As more and more enterprises are adopting cloud services for their businesses, threat of security has become a big concern for these enterprises and cloud users. This review describes the latest threats and risks associated with cloud computing and suggests techniques for better privacy and security of data in cloud environment. Threats and risks associated with cloud service models (SaaS, PaaS and IaaS) along with cloud deployment models (p...

The effect of panic disorder versus anxiety sensitivity on event-related potentials during anticipation of threat.

Science.gov (United States)

Stevens, Elizabeth S; Weinberg, Anna; Nelson, Brady D; Meissel, Emily E E; Shankman, Stewart A

2018-03-01

Attention-related abnormalities are key components of the abnormal defensive responding observed in panic disorder (PD). Although behavioral studies have found aberrant attentional biases towards threat in PD, psychophysiological studies have been mixed. Predictability of threat, an important feature of threat processing, may have contributed to these mixed findings. Additionally, anxiety sensitivity, a dimensional trait associated with PD, may yield stronger associations with cognitive processes than categorical diagnoses of PD. In this study, 171 participants with PD and/or depression and healthy controls completed a task that differentiated anticipation of predictable vs. unpredictable shocks, while startle eyeblink and event-related potentials (ERPs [N100, P300]) were recorded. In all participants, relative to the control condition, probe N100 was enhanced to both predictable and unpredictable threat, whereas P300 suppression was unique to predictable threat. Probe N100, but not P300, was associated with startle eyeblink during both threatening conditions, and was strongest for unpredictable threat. PD was not associated with ERPs, but anxiety sensitivity (physical concerns) was positively associated with probe N100 (indicating reduced responding) in the unpredictable condition independent of PD diagnosis. Vulnerability to panic-related psychopathology may be characterized by aberrant early processing of threat, which may be especially evident during anticipation of unpredictable threats. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Threat engagement, disengagement, and sensitivity bias in worry-prone individuals as measured by an emotional go/no-go task.

Science.gov (United States)

Gole, Markus; Köchel, Angelika; Schäfer, Axel; Schienle, Anne

2012-03-01

The goal of the present study was to investigate a threat engagement, disengagement, and sensitivity bias in individuals suffering from pathological worry. Twenty participants high in worry proneness and 16 control participants low in worry proneness completed an emotional go/no-go task with worry-related threat words and neutral words. Shorter reaction times (i.e., threat engagement bias), smaller omission error rates (i.e., threat sensitivity bias), and larger commission error rates (i.e., threat disengagement bias) emerged only in the high worry group when worry-related words constituted the go-stimuli and neutral words the no-go stimuli. Also, smaller omission error rates as well as larger commission error rates were observed in the high worry group relative to the low worry group when worry-related go stimuli and neutral no-go stimuli were used. The obtained results await further replication within a generalized anxiety disorder sample. Also, further samples should include men as well. Our data suggest that worry-prone individuals are threat-sensitive, engage more rapidly with aversion, and disengage harder. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Psychometric and demographic predictors of the perceived risk of terrorist threats and the willingness to pay for terrorism risk management programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Mumpower, Jeryl L; Shi, Liu; Stoutenborough, James W; Vedlitz, Arnold

2013-10-01

A 2009 national telephone survey of 924 U.S. adults assessed perceptions of terrorism and homeland security issues. Respondents rated severity of effects, level of understanding, number affected, and likelihood of four terrorist threats: poisoned water supply; explosion of a small nuclear device in a major U.S. city; an airplane attack similar to 9/11; and explosion of a bomb in a building, train, subway, or highway. Respondents rated perceived risk and willingness to pay (WTP) for dealing with each threat. Demographic, attitudinal, and party affiliation data were collected. Respondents rated bomb as highest in perceived risk but gave the highest WTP ratings to nuclear device. For both perceived risk and WTP, psychometric variables were far stronger predictors than were demographic ones. OLS regression analyses using both types of variables to predict perceived risk found only two significant demographic predictors for any threat--Democrat (a negative predictor for bomb) and white male (a significant positive predictor for airline attack). In contrast, among psychometric variables, severity, number affected, and likelihood were predictors of all four threats and level of understanding was a predictor for one. For WTP, education was a negative predictor for three threats; no other demographic variables were significant predictors for any threat. Among psychometric variables, perceived risk and number affected were positive predictors of WTP for all four threats; severity and likelihood were predictors for three; level of understanding was a significant predictor for two. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Supply Chain Risk Management: An Introduction to the Credible Threat

Science.gov (United States)

2016-08-01

van.poindexter@dau.mil. Figure 3. Trusted Suppliers Source: “ Managing Information Communications Technology Global Supply Chain Risk Awareness...Defense AT&L: July-August 2016 18 Supply Chain Risk Management An Introduction to the Credible Threat Heath Ferry n Van Poindexter 19...cybersecurity breach. This article examines the elements of supply chain risk management , the national security risks associated with exploitation, and

Current posttraumatic stress disorder and exaggerated threat sensitivity associated with elevated inflammation in the Mind Your Heart Study.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Donovan, Aoife; Ahmadian, Ashkan J; Neylan, Thomas C; Pacult, Mark A; Edmondson, Donald; Cohen, Beth E

2017-02-01

Elevated inflammation has been repeatedly observed in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and it may drive the development of both psychiatric symptoms and physical comorbidities. However, it is not clear if elevated inflammation is a feature of both remitted and current PTSD, and little is known about relationships between specific clusters of PTSD symptoms and inflammation. Exaggerated threat sensitivity, as indexed by threat reactivity and avoidance of perceived threats, may be particularly closely associated with inflammation. We assessed PTSD symptoms and threat sensitivity using the Clinician Administered PTSD Scale in 735 Veterans Affairs patients (35% current PTSD; 16% remitted PTSD) who participated in the Mind Your Heart Study (mean age=59±11; 94% male). High sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), white blood cell count (WBC), and fibrinogen were used as indices of inflammation. Analysis of covariance models with planned contrasts were used to examine differences in inflammation by PTSD status, adjusting for age, sex, race, kidney function and socioeconomic status. Individuals with current PTSD had significantly higher hsCRP and WBC than patients with no history of PTSD, but there were no significant differences in inflammatory markers between those with remitted versus no history of PTSD. Within patients with current PTSD, higher threat reactivity was independently associated with higher hsCRP (β=0.16, p=0.01) and WBC count (β=0.24, <0.001), and higher effortful avoidance was associated with higher fibrinogen (β=0.13, p=0.04). Our data indicate that elevated inflammation may be a feature of current, but not remitted, PTSD. Within patients with PTSD, higher threat reactivity was also associated with elevated inflammation. A better understanding of the relationship between threat sensitivity and inflammation may inform interventions for patients with PTSD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

2014-01-01

The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

When does risk perception predict protection motivation for health threats? A person-by-situation analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, William M. P.; Avishai, Aya; Jones, Katelyn; Villegas, Megan; Sheeran, Paschal

2018-01-01

Although risk perception is a key concept in many health behavior theories, little research has explicitly tested when risk perception predicts motivation to take protective action against a health threat (protection motivation). The present study tackled this question by (a) adopting a multidimensional model of risk perception that comprises deliberative, affective, and experiential components (the TRIRISK model), and (b) taking a person-by-situation approach. We leveraged a highly intensive within-subjects paradigm to test features of the health threat (i.e., perceived severity) and individual differences (e.g., emotion reappraisal) as moderators of the relationship between the three types of risk perception and protection motivation in a within-subjects design. Multi-level modeling of 2968 observations (32 health threats across 94 participants) showed interactions among the TRIRISK components and moderation both by person-level and situational factors. For instance, affective risk perception better predicted protection motivation when deliberative risk perception was high, when the threat was less severe, and among participants who engage less in emotional reappraisal. These findings support the TRIRISK model and offer new insights into when risk perceptions predict protection motivation. PMID:29494705

When does risk perception predict protection motivation for health threats? A person-by-situation analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrer, Rebecca A; Klein, William M P; Avishai, Aya; Jones, Katelyn; Villegas, Megan; Sheeran, Paschal

2018-01-01

Although risk perception is a key concept in many health behavior theories, little research has explicitly tested when risk perception predicts motivation to take protective action against a health threat (protection motivation). The present study tackled this question by (a) adopting a multidimensional model of risk perception that comprises deliberative, affective, and experiential components (the TRIRISK model), and (b) taking a person-by-situation approach. We leveraged a highly intensive within-subjects paradigm to test features of the health threat (i.e., perceived severity) and individual differences (e.g., emotion reappraisal) as moderators of the relationship between the three types of risk perception and protection motivation in a within-subjects design. Multi-level modeling of 2968 observations (32 health threats across 94 participants) showed interactions among the TRIRISK components and moderation both by person-level and situational factors. For instance, affective risk perception better predicted protection motivation when deliberative risk perception was high, when the threat was less severe, and among participants who engage less in emotional reappraisal. These findings support the TRIRISK model and offer new insights into when risk perceptions predict protection motivation.

Reducing the risk of cyber threats in utilities through log management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patnaik, A. [ArcSight, Cupertino, CA (United States)

2010-01-15

Electrical blackouts caused by terrorists hacking into targeted control systems have already occurred in Brazil. A patchwork of security tools is needed to reduce potential threats. The continuous collection and analysis of data is also needed to detect cyber threats. The real time correlation of logs across all systems, applications and users is needed to ensure the reliability and security of the power grid. Solutions must also integrate well with identity management sources in order to prevent remote access account hijacking. Effective log management can be used to detect threats and reduce the risk of power outages. 1 fig.

An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bokan, S.

2009-01-01

CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

Non fisheries threats - Risk, status and trends of non-fisheries threats in the California Current to groundfish species

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — We are calculating the risk of focal groundfish species to non-fisheries related threats (e.g. shipping activity, inorganic pollution) and comparing the relative...

Communication as a bridge between the threat of terrorism and the perception of risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Vries, G.

2017-01-01

We are shaken almost weekly by reports of the threat of terrorism. But just how real is this threat, and how is it experienced by the general public? It is not unlikely that there is a gap between the threat of terrorism and people's perception of the risk. A new research project by Doctor Gerdien

Taking chances in the face of threat: romantic risk regulation and approach motivation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cavallo, Justin V; Fitzsimons, Gráinne M; Holmes, John G

2009-06-01

Four studies examine the hypothesis that goals adopted by high and low self-esteem people (HSEs and LSEs) to manage risk in romantic relationships may reflect global shifts in approach motivation and subsequently affect risk taking in nonsocial domains. In Studies 1 and 2, threats to participants' romantic relationships heightened HSEs' self-reported general approach motivation while lowering LSEs' approach motivation. In Studies 2 through 4, HSEs exhibited riskier decision making (i.e., a greater tendency to pursue rewards and ignore risks) in nonsocial domains following a relationship threat manipulation whereas LSEs made more conservative decisions. These results suggest that the romantic risk regulation may be inherently linked to a broader approach and avoidance system and that specific risk regulation behaviors may be driven by global motivational shifts to a greater degree than previously theorized.

Risk and Threat via Online Social Network among Academia at Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Shaker Hussain, Hanizan; Din, Roshidi; Zulkarnaen Khidzir, Nik; Azhar Mat Daud, Khairul; Ahmad, Suzastri

2018-05-01

The evolution of information and communication technologies (ICT) nowadays has changed the life style of human living. The current modern societies have adopted ICT as an important thing that they are really needed in their life, especially as a tool to be used for communications activity. However, unfortunately ICT also exposed its user in circumstances of risk, threats and vulnerability. This paper will discuss the risk and threats to the users who are using social media as a medium to communicate. In this paper, the fraction of user will be divided by two types which are gender and working experience. The data that obtained from the distributed of questionnaires among respondent will be analysed by using SPSS. Data will be analysed by using two-way ANOVA statistic in order to examine the significant level in between gender and working experience as an independent variable in this study with the level of threats in cybersecurity risk towards lecturers who are working in higher education institutions in Malaysia. This article also will provide an empirical data and will be referred to another researcher in the future for their further research perhaps.

Different groups, different threats: a multi-threat approach to the experience of stereotype threats.

Science.gov (United States)

Shapiro, Jenessa R

2011-04-01

Two studies demonstrated that different negatively stereotyped groups are at risk for distinct forms of stereotype threats. The Multi-Threat Framework articulates six distinct stereotype threats and the unique constellations of variables (e.g., group identification, stereotype endorsement) that elicit each stereotype threat. Previous research suggests that different negatively stereotyped groups systematically vary across these stereotype threat elicitors; a pilot study confirms these differences. Across two studies, groups that tend to elicit low stereotype endorsement (religion, race/ethnicity, congenital blindness) were less likely to report experiencing self-as-source stereotype threats (stereotype threats requiring stereotype endorsement) and groups that tend to elicit low group identification (mental illness, obesity, blindness later in life) were less likely to report experiencing group-as-target stereotype threats (stereotype threats requiring group identification). This research suggests that traditional models may overlook the experiences of stereotype threats within some groups and that interventions tailored to address differences between stereotype threats will be most effective.

A Cyber Security Risk Assessment of Hospital Infrastructure including TLS/SSL and other Threats

OpenAIRE

Millar, Stuart

2016-01-01

Cyber threats traditionally target governments, financial institutions and businesses. However, of growing concern is the threat to healthcare organizations. This study conducts a cyber security risk assessment of a theoretical hospital environment, to include TLS/SSL, which is an encryption protocol for network communications, plus other physical, logical and human threats. Despite significant budgets in the UK for the NHS, the spend on cyber security appears worryingly low and many hospital...

Stereotype threat and executive functions: which functions mediate different threat-related outcomes?

Science.gov (United States)

Rydell, Robert J; Van Loo, Katie J; Boucher, Kathryn L

2014-03-01

Stereotype threat research shows that women's math performance can be reduced by activating gender-based math stereotypes. Models of stereotype threat assert that threat reduces cognitive functioning, thereby accounting for its negative effects. This work provides a more detailed understanding of the cognitive processes through which stereotype threat leads women to underperform at math and to take risks, by examining which basic executive functions (inhibition, shifting, and updating) account for these outcomes. In Experiments 1 and 2, women under threat showed reduced inhibition, reduced updating, and reduced math performance compared with women in a control condition (or men); however, only updating accounted for women's poor math performance under threat. In Experiment 3, only updating accounted for stereotype threat's effect on women's math performance, whereas only inhibition accounted for the effect of threat on risk-taking, suggesting that distinct executive functions can account for different stereotype threat-related outcomes.

Cyber Terrorism demands a Global Risks and Threats Strategic Management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gareva, R.

2007-01-01

The world is in the third wave of development, which is digital managed and networked. Information, which creates the knowledge is transferring thorough the Internet by exponential function. The rapid advancement of the computer technology has a great influence over the development of the critical information infrastructure, thus changing the safety environment and the national values and interests. This advancement produces threats and risks from computer perspective which are sublimated in different forms of international terrorism and particularly in cyber terrorism. The main aim of this paper is based on a thorough analysis of what is scientifically known and practiced when nowadays critical information infrastructure is in the focus of the cyber terrorism. The rapid IT development demands changes in the strategic management focus. As a result of a time-consuming theoretical and empirical research this paper suggests a methodology for strategic managing of: threats, risks and vulnerabilities. The proposed methodology is seen as a mean to increase the human security conscious in every sense of the word, and to promote the need for rules, procedures and standards establishment from the aspect of the strategic management in the new information epoch concerning. In addition, through a scientific discourse, a short attempt is made to relate Macedonian reality with the phenomenon mentioned above. The most fundamental set phrase is that the efficiency and promptly made decisions during strategic planning are a projection of the systematic organization of functions and models for managing the risks and threats of the critical information infrastructure. Hence, this paper could be seen as a perspective when taking in consideration the regional strategic management, and the cyber space vital functioning. (author)

Sensitivity towards fear of electric shock in passive threat situations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ring, Patrick; Kaernbach, Christian

2015-01-01

Human judgment and decision-making (JDM) requires an assessment of different choice options. While traditional theories of choice argue that cognitive processes are the main driver to reach a decision, growing evidence highlights the importance of emotion in decision-making. Following these findings, it appears relevant to understand how individuals asses the attractiveness or riskiness of a situation in terms of emotional processes. The following study aims at a better understanding of the psychophysiological mechanisms underlying threat sensitivity by measuring skin conductance responses (SCRs) in passive threat situations. While previous studies demonstrate the role of magnitude on emotional body reactions preceding an outcome, this study focuses on probability. In order to analyze emotional body reactions preceding negative events with varying probability of occurrence, we have our participants play a two-stage card game. The first stage of the card game reveals the probability of receiving an unpleasant electric shock. The second stage applies the electric shock with the previously announced probability. For the analysis, we focus on the time interval between the first and second stage. We observe a linear relation between SCRs in anticipation of receiving an electric shock and shock probability. This finding indicates that SCRs are able to code the likelihood of negative events. We outline how this coding function of SCRs during the anticipation of negative events might add to an understanding of human JDM.

Cyber threat metrics.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frye, Jason Neal; Veitch, Cynthia K.; Mateski, Mark Elliot; Michalski, John T.; Harris, James Mark; Trevino, Cassandra M.; Maruoka, Scott

2012-03-01

Threats are generally much easier to list than to describe, and much easier to describe than to measure. As a result, many organizations list threats. Fewer describe them in useful terms, and still fewer measure them in meaningful ways. This is particularly true in the dynamic and nebulous domain of cyber threats - a domain that tends to resist easy measurement and, in some cases, appears to defy any measurement. We believe the problem is tractable. In this report we describe threat metrics and models for characterizing threats consistently and unambiguously. The purpose of this report is to support the Operational Threat Assessment (OTA) phase of risk and vulnerability assessment. To this end, we focus on the task of characterizing cyber threats using consistent threat metrics and models. In particular, we address threat metrics and models for describing malicious cyber threats to US FCEB agencies and systems.

Stereotype Threat.

Science.gov (United States)

Spencer, Steven J; Logel, Christine; Davies, Paul G

2016-01-01

When members of a stigmatized group find themselves in a situation where negative stereotypes provide a possible framework for interpreting their behavior, the risk of being judged in light of those stereotypes can elicit a disruptive state that undermines performance and aspirations in that domain. This situational predicament, termed stereotype threat, continues to be an intensely debated and researched topic in educational, social, and organizational psychology. In this review, we explore the various sources of stereotype threat, the mechanisms underlying stereotype-threat effects (both mediators and moderators), and the consequences of this situational predicament, as well as the means through which society and stigmatized individuals can overcome the insidious effects of stereotype threat. Ultimately, we hope this review alleviates some of the confusion surrounding stereotype threat while also sparking further research and debate.

Sensitivity towards fear of electric shock in passive threat situations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrick Ring

Full Text Available Human judgment and decision-making (JDM requires an assessment of different choice options. While traditional theories of choice argue that cognitive processes are the main driver to reach a decision, growing evidence highlights the importance of emotion in decision-making. Following these findings, it appears relevant to understand how individuals asses the attractiveness or riskiness of a situation in terms of emotional processes. The following study aims at a better understanding of the psychophysiological mechanisms underlying threat sensitivity by measuring skin conductance responses (SCRs in passive threat situations. While previous studies demonstrate the role of magnitude on emotional body reactions preceding an outcome, this study focuses on probability. In order to analyze emotional body reactions preceding negative events with varying probability of occurrence, we have our participants play a two-stage card game. The first stage of the card game reveals the probability of receiving an unpleasant electric shock. The second stage applies the electric shock with the previously announced probability. For the analysis, we focus on the time interval between the first and second stage. We observe a linear relation between SCRs in anticipation of receiving an electric shock and shock probability. This finding indicates that SCRs are able to code the likelihood of negative events. We outline how this coding function of SCRs during the anticipation of negative events might add to an understanding of human JDM.

Increased risk of sadness and suicidality among victims of bullying experiencing additional threats to physical safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Pham, Tammy B; Adesman, Andrew

2017-11-23

Objective To examine, in a nationally-representative sample of high school students, to what extent one or more additional threats to physical safety exacerbates the risk of sadness and suicidality among victims of school and/or cyber-bullying. Methods National data from the 2015 Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) were analyzed for grades 9-12 (n = 15,624). Victimization groups were characterized by school-bullying and cyber-bullying, with and without additional threats to physical safety: fighting at school, being threatened/injured at school, and skipping school out of fear for one's safety. Outcomes included 2-week sadness and suicidality. Outcomes for victimization groups were compared to non-victims using logistic regression adjusting for sex, grade and race/ethnicity. Results Overall, 20.2% of students were school-bullied, and 15.5% were cyber-bullied in the past year. Compared to non-victims, victims of school-bullying and victims of cyber-bullying (VoCBs) who did not experience additional threats to physical safety were 2.76 and 3.83 times more likely to report 2-week sadness, and 3.39 and 3.27 times more likely to exhibit suicidality, respectively. Conversely, victims of bullying who experienced one or more additional threats to physical safety were successively more likely to report these adverse outcomes. Notably, victims of school-bullying and VoCBs with all three additional risk factors were 13.13 and 17.75 times more likely to exhibit suicidality, respectively. Conclusion Risk of depression symptoms and suicidality among victims of school-bullying and/or cyber-bullying is greatly increased among those who have experienced additional threats to physical safety: fighting at school, being threatened/injured at school and skipping school out of fear for their safety.

Affective state influences perception by affecting decision parameters underlying bias and sensitivity.

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Lynn, Spencer K; Zhang, Xuan; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

2012-08-01

Studies of the effect of affect on perception often show consistent directional effects of a person's affective state on perception. Unpleasant emotions have been associated with a "locally focused" style of stimulus evaluation, and positive emotions with a "globally focused" style. Typically, however, studies of affect and perception have not been conducted under the conditions of perceptual uncertainty and behavioral risk inherent to perceptual judgments outside the laboratory. We investigated the influence of perceivers' experienced affect (valence and arousal) on the utility of social threat perception by combining signal detection theory and behavioral economics. We compared 3 perceptual decision environments that systematically differed with respect to factors that underlie uncertainty and risk: the base rate of threat, the costs of incorrect identification threat, and the perceptual similarity of threats and nonthreats. We found that no single affective state yielded the best performance on the threat perception task across the 3 environments. Unpleasant valence promoted calibration of response bias to base rate and costs, high arousal promoted calibration of perceptual sensitivity to perceptual similarity, and low arousal was associated with an optimal adjustment of bias to sensitivity. However, the strength of these associations was conditional upon the difficulty of attaining optimal bias and high sensitivity, such that the effect of the perceiver's affective state on perception differed with the cause and/or level of uncertainty and risk.

Risk Sensitive Filtering with Poisson Process Observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malcolm, W. P.; James, M. R.; Elliott, R. J.

2000-01-01

In this paper we consider risk sensitive filtering for Poisson process observations. Risk sensitive filtering is a type of robust filtering which offers performance benefits in the presence of uncertainties. We derive a risk sensitive filter for a stochastic system where the signal variable has dynamics described by a diffusion equation and determines the rate function for an observation process. The filtering equations are stochastic integral equations. Computer simulations are presented to demonstrate the performance gain for the risk sensitive filter compared with the risk neutral filter

Community structure analysis of rejection sensitive personality profiles: A common neural response to social evaluative threat?

Science.gov (United States)

Kortink, Elise D; Weeda, Wouter D; Crowley, Michael J; Gunther Moor, Bregtje; van der Molen, Melle J W

2018-06-01

Monitoring social threat is essential for maintaining healthy social relationships, and recent studies suggest a neural alarm system that governs our response to social rejection. Frontal-midline theta (4-8 Hz) oscillatory power might act as a neural correlate of this system by being sensitive to unexpected social rejection. Here, we examined whether frontal-midline theta is modulated by individual differences in personality constructs sensitive to social disconnection. In addition, we examined the sensitivity of feedback-related brain potentials (i.e., the feedback-related negativity and P3) to social feedback. Sixty-five undergraduate female participants (mean age = 19.69 years) participated in the Social Judgment Paradigm, a fictitious peer-evaluation task in which participants provided expectancies about being liked/disliked by peer strangers. Thereafter, they received feedback signaling social acceptance/rejection. A community structure analysis was employed to delineate personality profiles in our data. Results provided evidence of two subgroups: one group scored high on attachment-related anxiety and fear of negative evaluation, whereas the other group scored high on attachment-related avoidance and low on fear of negative evaluation. In both groups, unexpected rejection feedback yielded a significant increase in theta power. The feedback-related negativity was sensitive to unexpected feedback, regardless of valence, and was largest for unexpected rejection feedback. The feedback-related P3 was significantly enhanced in response to expected social acceptance feedback. Together, these findings confirm the sensitivity of frontal midline theta oscillations to the processing of social threat, and suggest that this alleged neural alarm system behaves similarly in individuals that differ in personality constructs relevant to social evaluation.

Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security: threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brauch, H.G.; Oswald Spring, Ú.; Mesjasz, C.; Grin, J.; Kameri-Mbote, P.; Chourou, B.; Dunay, P.; Birkmann, J.

2011-01-01

This policy-focused Global Environmental and Human Security Handbook for the Anthropo-cene (GEHSHA) addresses new security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks posed by global environmental change and disasters. In 6 forewords, 5 preface essays 95 peer reviewed chapcountries analyse in 10

Forecasting Lightning Threat Using WRF Proxy Fields

Science.gov (United States)

McCaul, E. W., Jr.

2010-01-01

Objectives: Given that high-resolution WRF forecasts can capture the character of convective outbreaks, we seek to: 1. Create WRF forecasts of LTG threat (1-24 h), based on 2 proxy fields from explicitly simulated convection: - graupel flux near -15 C (captures LTG time variability) - vertically integrated ice (captures LTG threat area). 2. Calibrate each threat to yield accurate quantitative peak flash rate densities. 3. Also evaluate threats for areal coverage, time variability. 4. Blend threats to optimize results. 5. Examine sensitivity to model mesh, microphysics. Methods: 1. Use high-resolution 2-km WRF simulations to prognose convection for a diverse series of selected case studies. 2. Evaluate graupel fluxes; vertically integrated ice (VII). 3. Calibrate WRF LTG proxies using peak total LTG flash rate densities from NALMA; relationships look linear, with regression line passing through origin. 4. Truncate low threat values to make threat areal coverage match NALMA flash extent density obs. 5. Blend proxies to achieve optimal performance 6. Study CAPS 4-km ensembles to evaluate sensitivities.

Risk-sensitivity in Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jordi Grau-Moya

Full Text Available Information processing in the nervous system during sensorimotor tasks with inherent uncertainty has been shown to be consistent with Bayesian integration. Bayes optimal decision-makers are, however, risk-neutral in the sense that they weigh all possibilities based on prior expectation and sensory evidence when they choose the action with highest expected value. In contrast, risk-sensitive decision-makers are sensitive to model uncertainty and bias their decision-making processes when they do inference over unobserved variables. In particular, they allow deviations from their probabilistic model in cases where this model makes imprecise predictions. Here we test for risk-sensitivity in a sensorimotor integration task where subjects exhibit Bayesian information integration when they infer the position of a target from noisy sensory feedback. When introducing a cost associated with subjects' response, we found that subjects exhibited a characteristic bias towards low cost responses when their uncertainty was high. This result is in accordance with risk-sensitive decision-making processes that allow for deviations from Bayes optimal decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Our results suggest that both Bayesian integration and risk-sensitivity are important factors to understand sensorimotor integration in a quantitative fashion.

[Strategies for reducing risks in smoking: opportunity or threat].

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Córdoba, Rodrigo; Nerín, Isabel

2009-12-01

The smoking control policies recommended by the World Health Organisation have achieved a slight decrease in smoking prevalence in the developed countries, although associated mortality is still very high. The use of tobacco products other than cigarettes and even medicinal nicotine (known as nicotine replacement therapy (NRT)) has been proposed as a risk reduction strategy. Among the tobacco products with less individual risk than cigarettes would be any type of tobacco without smoke (smokeless) with a low content in nitrosamines and modified cigarettes; both forms included under the PREP (Potentially Reduced Exposure Products) concept. The idea would be to promote these products among those who cannot quit smoking or wish to reduce their risk without giving up nicotine intake. The possible effects of risk reduction strategies, including PREP, on the decreased prevalence and morbidity and mortality are reviewed, and the possible implications that this measure could have in our country are analysed. Tobacco control measures in Spain are recent and still insufficient. Therefore, the current priority in Spain is the development of policies of control that have shown to more than effective. The marketing and advertising of new tobacco products, even with reduced potential risk, seems more a serious threat than an opportunity for the development of smoking control policies.

A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks.

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Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V

2017-03-21

The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider's server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs' users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs' risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs' risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing.

A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V.

2017-01-01

The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider’s server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs’ users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs’ risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs’ risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing. PMID:28335569

Simulating the Adaptive Mechanisms to Reduce the Risks of Occurence of Threats to the Economic Security of Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Glushchevsky Vyacheslav V.

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The article is concerned with addressing the topical problem of effectively countering real and potential threats to economic security of enterprises and reducing the risks of their occurrence. The article is aimed at simulating the adaptive mechanisms to counteract external influences on the marketing component of enterprise’s economic security and developing a system of measures for removing threats to price destabilization of its orders portfolio based on a modern economic-mathematical instrumentarium. The common causes of the threats occurrence related to the price policy of enterprise and the tactics of the contractual processes with the business partners have been explored. Hidden reserves for price maneuvering in concluding contracts with customers have been identified. An algorithmic model for an adaptive pricing task in terms of an assortment of industrial enterprise has been built. On the basis of this model, mechanisms have been developed to counteract the threats of occurrence and aggravation of a «price conflict» between the producing enterprise and the potential customers of its products, and to advise on how to remove the risks of their occurrence. Prospects for using the methodology together with the instrumentarium for economic-mathematical modeling in terms of tasks of the price risks management have been indicated.

Risk Factor Knowledge, Perceived Threat, and Protective Health Behaviors: Implications for Type 2 Diabetes Control in Rural Communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Paige, Samantha R; Bonnar, Kelly K; Black, David R; Coster, Daniel C

2018-02-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to explore how perceived threat of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is shaped by risk factor knowledge and promotes the engagement of protective health behaviors among rural adults. Methods Participants (N = 252) completed a cross-sectional mixed-mode survey. Chi-squared analyses were computed to examine differences in perceived threat by demographic factors and knowledge of T2D risk factors. Logistic regressions were conducted to examine the relationship between T2D perceived threat and engagement in physical activity and health screenings. Results Perceived threat and knowledge of T2D risk factors were high. Perceived susceptibility was significantly higher among women, whites, and respondents with high body mass index (BMI). Respondents reporting physical activity most/almost every day had low perceived susceptibility to T2D. Perceived severity was significantly higher among respondents with high BMI. Blood cholesterol and glucose screenings were associated with greater T2D perceived susceptibility and severity. Higher BMI was associated with receiving a blood glucose screening. Conclusion Health education specialists and researchers should further explore the implications of using audience segmented fear appeal messages to promote T2D control through protective health behaviors.

DOE site-specific threat assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

West, D.J.; Al-Ayat, R.A.; Judd, B.R.

1985-01-01

A facility manager faced with the challenges of protecting a nuclear facility against potential threats must consider the likelihood and consequences of such threats, know the capabilities of the facility safeguards and security systems, and make informed decisions about the cost-effectivness of safeguards and security upgrades. To help meet these challenges, the San Francisco Operations Office of the Department of Energy, in conjunction with the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, has developed a site-specific threat assessment approach and a quantitative model to improve the quality and consistency of site-specific threat assessment and resultant security upgrade decisions at sensitive Department of Energy facilities. 5 figs

Cyber threats to health information systems: A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Luna, Raul; Rhine, Emily; Myhra, Matthew; Sullivan, Ross; Kruse, Clemens Scott

2016-01-01

Recent legislation empowering providers to embrace the electronic exchange of health information leaves the healthcare industry increasingly vulnerable to cybercrime. The objective of this systematic review is to identify the biggest threats to healthcare via cybercrime. The rationale behind this systematic review is to provide a framework for future research by identifying themes and trends of cybercrime in the healthcare industry. The authors conducted a systematic search through the CINAHL, Academic Search Complete, PubMed, and ScienceDirect databases to gather literature relative to cyber threats in healthcare. All authors reviewed the articles collected and excluded literature that did not focus on the objective. Researchers selected and examined 19 articles for common themes. The most prevalent cyber-criminal activity in healthcare is identity theft through data breach. Other concepts identified are internal threats, external threats, cyber-squatting, and cyberterrorism. The industry has now come to rely heavily on digital technologies, which increase risks such as denial of service and data breaches. Current healthcare cyber-security systems do not rival the capabilities of cyber criminals. Security of information is a costly resource and therefore many HCOs may hesitate to invest what is required to protect sensitive information.

Framing effects and risk-sensitive decision making.

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Mishra, Sandeep; Gregson, Margaux; Lalumière, Martin L

2012-02-01

Prospect theory suggests that people are risk-averse when facing gains, but risk-prone when facing losses, a pattern known as the framing effect. Although framing effects have been widely demonstrated, few studies have investigated framing effects under conditions of need. Risk-sensitivity theory predicts that decision makers should prefer high-risk options in situations of high need, when lower risk options are unlikely to meet those needs. In two experiments, we examined (1) whether framing effects occurred in behavioural tasks involving risky decision making from description and decision making from experience, (2) whether participants' risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory, and (3) whether decision framing interacted with conditions of need to influence decision making under risk. The results suggest that under all circumstances, risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory. Framing effects were at least partially demonstrable under all experimental conditions. Finally, negative frames interacted with situations of high need to produce particularly elevated levels of risky choice. Together, the results suggest that risk-sensitivity theory can augment prospect theory to explain choice under conditions of need. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Attentional bias to threat in children at-risk for emotional disorders: role of gender and type of maternal emotional disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Montagner, Rachel; Mogg, Karin; Bradley, Brendan P; Pine, Daniel S; Czykiel, Marcelo S; Miguel, Euripedes Constantino; Rohde, Luis A; Manfro, Gisele G; Salum, Giovanni A

2016-07-01

Previous studies suggested that threat biases underlie familial risk for emotional disorders in children. However, major questions remain concerning the moderating role of the offspring gender and the type of parental emotional disorder on this association. This study addresses these questions in a large sample of boys and girls. Participants were 6-12 years old (at screening) typically developing children participating in the High Risk Cohort Study for Psychiatric Disorders (n = 1280; 606 girls, 674 boys). Children were stratified according to maternal emotional disorder (none; mood disorder; anxiety disorder; comorbid anxiety/mood disorder) and gender. Attention biases were assessed using a dot-probe paradigm with threat, happy and neutral faces. A significant gender-by-parental emotional disorder interaction predicted threat bias, independent of anxiety and depression symptoms in children. Daughters of mothers with an emotional disorder showed increased attention to threat compared with daughters of disorder-free mothers, irrespective of the type of maternal emotion disorder. In contrast, attention bias to threat in boys only occurred in mothers with a non-comorbid mood disorder. No group differences were found for biases for happy-face cues. Gender and type of maternal emotional disorder predict attention bias in disorder-free children. This highlights the need for longitudinal research to clarify whether this pattern of threat-attention bias in children relates to the risk of developing anxiety and mood disorders later in life.

Anxiety and Attentional Bias to Threat in Children at Increased Familial Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder

Science.gov (United States)

Milosavljevic, Bosiljka; Shephard, Elizabeth; Happé, Francesca G.; Johnson, Mark H.; Charman, Tony

2017-01-01

Anxiety and threat bias were examined in 6-8-year-old children at familial-risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and low-risk (LR, n = 37) controls. The high-risk (HR) group was divided into those who met diagnostic criteria for ASD (HR-ASD, n = 15) and those who did not (HR-non ASD, n = 24). The HR-ASD group had highest levels of…

Remarks on Risk-Sensitive Control Problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menaldi, Jose-Luis; Robin, Maurice

2005-01-01

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the discounted risk-sensitive control problem for periodic diffusion processes when the discount factor α goes to zero. If u α (θ,x) denotes the optimal cost function, θ being the risk factor, then it is shown that lim { α to 0}α u α (θ,x)=ξ(θ) where ξ(θ) is the average on ]0,θ[ of the optimal cost of the (usual) infinite horizon risk-sensitive control problem

Today's threat and tomorrow's reaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, L.R.

2002-01-01

Full text: The events of September 11 have only confirmed our past nightmares and warnings to industries, agencies, and governments. The threat of even more significant catastrophic attacks, using nuclear materials, was just as real ten years ago, as it is today. In many cases, our vulnerability remains the same as years ago. There is a dire need for all organizations to agree upon threats and vulnerabilities, and to implement appropriate protections, for nuclear materials or other 'means' to achieve an event of mass destruction. All appropriate organizations (industries, agencies, and governments) should be able to define, assess, and recognize international threats and vulnerabilities in the same manner. In complimentary fashion, the organizations should be able to implement safeguards against this consistent generic threat. On an international scale the same threats, and most vulnerabilities, pose high risks to all of these organizations and societies. Indeed, in today's world, the vulnerabilities of one nation may clearly pose great risk to another nation. Once threats and vulnerabilities are consistently recognized, we can begin to approach their mitigation in a more 'universal' fashion by the application of internationally recognized and accepted security measures. The path to recognition of these security measures will require agreement on many diverse issues. However, once there is general agreement, we can then proceed to the acquisition of diverse national and international resources with which to implement the security measures 'universally' to eliminate 'weak-links' in the chain of nuclear materials, on a truly international scale. I would like to discuss: developing a internationally acceptable 'generic' statement of threat, vulnerability assessment process, and security measure; proposing this international statement of threat, vulnerability assessment process, and appropriate security measures to organizations (industries, agencies, and governments

Risks and threats of tax state security and methods of their neutralization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y.V. Lebedzevych

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The article substantiates the relevance of the study to ensure security of the state tax. Scientists studied different approaches to defining the essence of the concept of "security tax" on the key features that would satisfy the interests of all subjects of tax relations and the necessity of legal consolidation of this concept. Analyzed the economic, social and legal nature of the existence of the security tax, identified key indicators of fiscal security of Ukraine. To determine the effectiveness of the tax administration in the interests of the tax security highlights the main threats, tax security risks caused by external and internal factors, and propose measures for their elimination and prevent the possibility of their occurrence. The stages of tax risk management with effective building security tax, designed structurally-logic of the tax risk management security.

Sensitivity of Asteroid Impact Risk to Uncertainty in Asteroid Properties and Entry Parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; Dotson, Jessie L.; NASA Asteroid Threat Assessment Project

2017-10-01

A central challenge in assessing the threat posed by asteroids striking Earth is the large amount of uncertainty inherent throughout all aspects of the problem. Many asteroid properties are not well characterized and can range widely from strong, dense, monolithic irons to loosely bound, highly porous rubble piles. Even for an object of known properties, the specific entry velocity, angle, and impact location can swing the potential consequence from no damage to causing millions of casualties. Due to the extreme rarity of large asteroid strikes, there are also large uncertainties in how different types of asteroids will interact with the atmosphere during entry, how readily they may break up or ablate, and how much surface damage will be caused by the resulting airbursts or impacts.In this work, we use our Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate the sensitivity of asteroid impact damage to uncertainties in key asteroid properties, entry parameters, or modeling assumptions. The PAIR model combines physics-based analytic models of asteroid entry and damage in a probabilistic Monte Carlo framework to assess the risk posed by a wide range of potential impacts. The model samples from uncertainty distributions of asteroid properties and entry parameters to generate millions of specific impact cases, and models the atmospheric entry and damage for each case, including blast overpressure, thermal radiation, tsunami inundation, and global effects. To assess the risk sensitivity, we alternately fix and vary the different input parameters and compare the effect on the resulting range of damage produced. The goal of these studies is to help guide future efforts in asteroid characterization and model refinement by determining which properties most significantly affect the potential risk.

Attention biases to threat and behavioral inhibition in early childhood shape adolescent social withdrawal.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Edgar, Koraly; Bar-Haim, Yair; McDermott, Jennifer Martin; Chronis-Tuscano, Andrea; Pine, Daniel S; Fox, Nathan A

2010-06-01

Behavioral inhibition (BI) is a temperament characterized in young children by a heightened sensitivity to novelty, social withdrawal, and anxious behaviors. For many children, these social difficulties dissipate over time. For others, patterns of social withdrawal continue into adolescence. Over time, attention biases to threat may influence the stability of BI and its association with social withdrawal, ultimately modulating the risk for anxiety disorders in BI children. However, we know relatively little about the cognitive processes that accompany BI and shape later socio-emotional functioning. We examined the relations among BI in childhood, attention biases to threat in adolescence, and adolescent social withdrawal in a longitudinal study (N = 126, Mean age = 15 years). As has been reported in anxious adults, adolescents who were behaviorally inhibited as toddlers and young children showed heightened attention bias to threat. In addition, attention bias to threat moderated the relation between childhood BI and adolescent social withdrawal.

Phenotypic plasticity in anti-intraguild predator strategies: mite larvae adjust their behaviours according to vulnerability and predation risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Walzer, Andreas; Schausberger, Peter

2013-05-01

Interspecific threat-sensitivity allows prey to maximize the net benefit of antipredator strategies by adjusting the type and intensity of their response to the level of predation risk. This is well documented for classical prey-predator interactions but less so for intraguild predation (IGP). We examined threat-sensitivity in antipredator behaviour of larvae in a predatory mite guild sharing spider mites as prey. The guild consisted of the highly vulnerable intraguild (IG) prey and weak IG predator Phytoseiulus persimilis, the moderately vulnerable IG prey and moderate IG predator Neoseiulus californicus and the little vulnerable IG prey and strong IG predator Amblyseius andersoni. We videotaped the behaviour of the IG prey larvae of the three species in presence of either a low- or a high-risk IG predator female or predator absence and analysed time, distance, path shape and interaction parameters of predators and prey. The least vulnerable IG prey A. andersoni was insensitive to differing IGP risks but the moderately vulnerable IG prey N. californicus and the highly vulnerable IG prey P. persimilis responded in a threat-sensitive manner. Predator presence triggered threat-sensitive behavioural changes in one out of ten measured traits in N. californicus larvae but in four traits in P. persimilis larvae. Low-risk IG predator presence induced a typical escape response in P. persimilis larvae, whereas they reduced their activity in the high-risk IG predator presence. We argue that interspecific threat-sensitivity may promote co-existence of IG predators and IG prey and should be common in predator guilds with long co-evolutionary history.

Stereotype threat affects financial decision making.

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Carr, Priyanka B; Steele, Claude M

2010-10-01

The research presented in this article provides the first evidence that one's decision making can be influenced by concerns about stereotypes and the devaluation of one's identity. Many studies document gender differences in decision making, and often attribute these differences to innate and stable factors, such as biological and hormonal differences. In three studies, we found that stereotype threat affected decision making and led to gender differences in loss-aversion and risk-aversion behaviors. In Study 1, women subjected to stereotype threat in academic and business settings were more loss averse than both men and women who were not facing the threat of being viewed in light of negative stereotypes. We found no gender differences in loss-aversion behavior in the absence of stereotype threat. In Studies 2a and 2b, we found the same pattern of effects for risk-aversion behavior that we had observed for loss-aversion behavior. In addition, in Study 2b, ego depletion mediated the effects of stereotype threat on women's decision making. These results suggest that individuals' decision making can be influenced by stereotype concerns.

Corporate risk, intelligence and governance in the time of cyber threat

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Bronk

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Cyber security is an issue of foremost interest for policy makers in the world’s governments, corporations, NGOs, academic institutions, and other associations, however remedy for the myriad cyber threats and vulnerabilities continues to elude technologists and policy makers alike. In this paper, we consider the concept of cyber risk intelligence, a general concept of understanding the varied phenomena that impact an organization’s capacity to secure its digital communications and resources from eavesdropping, theft or attack. We also consider the deeper economics of information held and transmitted in digital form and how those economics may alter thinking on modeling of risk. Finally, we offer guidance of how organizations and entire sectors of business activity may want to alter their thinking on cyber security issues beyond a technological framing to an informational one aligned with business activities

Global analysis of threat status reveals higher extinction risk in tropical than in temperate bird sister species

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Reif Jiří

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Given increasing pressures upon biodiversity, identification of species’ traits related to elevated extinction risk is useful for more efficient allocation of limited resources for nature conservation. Despite its need, such a global analysis was lacking in the case of birds. Therefore, we performed this exercise for avian sister species using information about their global extinction risk from IUCN Red List. We focused on 113 pairs of sister species, each containing a threatened and an unthreatened species to factor out the effects of common evolutionary history on the revealed relationship. We collected data on five traits with expected relationships to species’ extinction risk based on previous studies performed at regional or national levels: breeding habitat (recognizing forest, grassland, wetland and oceanic species, latitudinal range position (temperate and tropics species, migration strategy (migratory and resident species, diet (carnivorous, insectivorous, herbivorous and omnivorous species and body mass. We related the extinction risk using IUCN threat level categories to species’ traits using generalised linear mixed effects models expecting lower risk for forest, temperate, omnivorous and smaller-bodied species. Our expectation was confirmed only in the case of latitudinal range position, as we revealed higher threat level for tropical than for temperate species. This relationship was robust to different methods of threat level expression and cannot be explained by a simple association of high bird species richness with the tropical zone. Instead, it seems that tropical species are more threatened because of their intrinsic characteristics such as slow life histories, adaptations to stable environments and small geographic ranges. These characteristics are obviously disadvantageous in conditions of current human-induced environmental perturbations. Moreover, given the absence of habitat effects, our study indicates that such

VULNERABILITIES, TERRORIST AND BIOTERRORIST THREATS AND RISKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viorel ORDEANUL

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The contemporary society has been, is and will probably be dominated "urbi et orbi " (everywhere and for everybody by conflicts expressed through violence, social confrontations, permissiveness, authority collapse, collapse of moral norms. Paradoxically, although it is spoken and written much about terrorism and terrorists, there is still no complete and accepted definition of these terms, and the legal classification is approximate. The analysis of threats is an extremely important decisional asset when setting up plans of direct protection or objective security strategies or institutions suitable to become targets of violent actions, but today's intelligence community has not yet established a clear set of procedures and principles that constitute the expert main frame for a comprehensive analysis of threats and vulnerabilities.

Establishing 'design basis threat' in Norway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maerli, M.B.; Naadland, E.; Reistad, O.

2002-01-01

Full text: INFCIRC 225 (Rev. 4) assumes that a state's physical protection system should be based on the state's evaluation of the threat, and that this should be reflected in the relevant legislation. Other factors should also be considered, including the state's emergency response capabilities and the existing and relevant measures of the state's system of accounting for and control of nuclear material. A design basis threat developed from an evaluation by the state of the threat of unauthorized removal of nuclear material and of sabotage of nuclear material and nuclear facilities is an essential element of a state's system of physical protection. The state should continuously review the threat, and evaluate the implications of any changes in that threat for the required levels and the methods of physical protection. As part of a national design basis threat assessment, this paper evaluates the risk of nuclear or radiological terrorism and sabotage in Norway. Possible scenarios are presented and plausible consequences are discussed with a view to characterize the risks. The need for more stringent regulatory requirements will be discussed, together with the (positive) impact of improved systems and procedures of physical protection on nuclear emergency planning. Special emphasis is placed on discussing the design basis threat for different scenarios in order to systemize regulatory efforts to update the current legislation, requirement for operators' contingency planning, response efforts and the need for emergency exercises. (author)

The risk of active sensitization to PPD.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Devos, S.A.; Valk, P.G.M. van der

2001-01-01

Para-phenylenediamine (PPD) and para-aminoazobenzene are strong sensitizers. By the patch test procedure, the patient may be sensitized to these agents. Combined testing of para-compounds may increase the risk of active sensitization. We studied the % of positive patch test reactions and their

Radiological threat, public and media: a psychosociological view

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arciszewski, T. [University Rene Descartes - Paris 5, 92 - Boulogne (France)

2006-07-01

Nuclear risk has become a major social communication along the 20. century because of its critical socio-political impact. That communication is not limited to expert speeches and simple acceptation. The way people understand that kind of threat is based on beliefs and on imaginary pictures. Consequently, and because it shapes people attitude, expectations and behaviours, their analysis is a key for policy and prevention. We will present, in the light of the research on risk perception and social psychology theoretical background, how people can manage with the nuclear fear. Some particular points will be studied: the nature of nuclear threat and fear, the cultural and media coverage and the consequences of this threat on behaviour. We will first focus on what a societal threat is and of which nature is the nuclear threat. We will rely on statistical data on risk perception. We have to consider the two main fields of information: first the nuclear threat as a mass destruction weapon and second, the radiological risk as a consequence of civil use of radiological material. Those two aspects, deeply related for most people, make the roots for the described fears. Then, the perception of the risks relative to nuclear is necessarily influenced by this representation. The representation of the nuclear power is and will be for next years, related to the nuclear mushroom as experimentally pointed o ut by Fiske, both with the abnormal children of Chernobyl. How can we change that vision? Not to be a liar, it will be hard work because it a old story, a long construction of what will be the future of mankind, something deeply influenced by media, movie, geopolitical facts like the cold war or technological accident like Three Mile Island or Chernobyl. It has to deal with the problem of media transmission of fears, which is a problem in itself, but due to the scientific base of our problem, particularly relevant. Moreover, there is a strong cultural background that maintains

Radiological threat, public and media: a psychosociological view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arciszewski, T.

2006-01-01

Nuclear risk has become a major social communication along the 20. century because of its critical socio-political impact. That communication is not limited to expert speeches and simple acceptation. The way people understand that kind of threat is based on beliefs and on imaginary pictures. Consequently, and because it shapes people attitude, expectations and behaviours, their analysis is a key for policy and prevention. We will present, in the light of the research on risk perception and social psychology theoretical background, how people can manage with the nuclear fear. Some particular points will be studied: the nature of nuclear threat and fear, the cultural and media coverage and the consequences of this threat on behaviour. We will first focus on what a societal threat is and of which nature is the nuclear threat. We will rely on statistical data on risk perception. We have to consider the two main fields of information: first the nuclear threat as a mass destruction weapon and second, the radiological risk as a consequence of civil use of radiological material. Those two aspects, deeply related for most people, make the roots for the described fears. Then, the perception of the risks relative to nuclear is necessarily influenced by this representation. The representation of the nuclear power is and will be for next years, related to the nuclear mushroom as experimentally pointed o ut by Fiske, both with the abnormal children of Chernobyl. How can we change that vision? Not to be a liar, it will be hard work because it a old story, a long construction of what will be the future of mankind, something deeply influenced by media, movie, geopolitical facts like the cold war or technological accident like Three Mile Island or Chernobyl. It has to deal with the problem of media transmission of fears, which is a problem in itself, but due to the scientific base of our problem, particularly relevant. Moreover, there is a strong cultural background that maintains

Stereotype threat can reduce older adults' memory errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Barber, Sarah J; Mather, Mara

2013-01-01

Stereotype threat often incurs the cost of reducing the amount of information that older adults accurately recall. In the current research, we tested whether stereotype threat can also benefit memory. According to the regulatory focus account of stereotype threat, threat induces a prevention focus in which people become concerned with avoiding errors of commission and are sensitive to the presence or absence of losses within their environment. Because of this, we predicted that stereotype threat might reduce older adults' memory errors. Results were consistent with this prediction. Older adults under stereotype threat had lower intrusion rates during free-recall tests (Experiments 1 and 2). They also reduced their false alarms and adopted more conservative response criteria during a recognition test (Experiment 2). Thus, stereotype threat can decrease older adults' false memories, albeit at the cost of fewer veridical memories, as well.

Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

Psychoneurometric operationalization of threat sensitivity: Relations with clinical symptom and physiological response criteria.

Science.gov (United States)

Yancey, James R; Venables, Noah C; Patrick, Christopher J

2016-03-01

The National Institute of Mental Health's Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) initiative calls for the incorporation of neurobiological approaches and findings into conceptions of mental health problems through a focus on biobehavioral constructs investigated across multiple domains of measurement (units of analysis). Although the constructs in the RDoC system are characterized in "process terms" (i.e., as functional concepts with brain and behavioral referents), these constructs can also be framed as dispositions (i.e., as dimensions of variation in biobehavioral functioning across individuals). Focusing on one key RDoC construct, acute threat or "fear," the current article illustrates a construct-oriented psychoneurometric strategy for operationalizing this construct in individual difference terms-as threat sensitivity (THT+). Utilizing data from 454 adult participants, we demonstrate empirically that (a) a scale measure of THT+ designed to tap general fear/fearlessness predicts effectively to relevant clinical problems (i.e., fear disorder symptoms), (b) this scale measure shows reliable associations with physiological indices of acute reactivity to aversive visual stimuli, and (c) a cross-domain factor reflecting the intersection of scale and physiological indicators of THT+ predicts effectively to both clinical and neurophysiological criterion measures. Results illustrate how the psychoneurometric approach can be used to create a dimensional index of a biobehavioral trait construct, in this case THT+, which can serve as a bridge between phenomena in domains of psychopathology and neurobiology. Implications and future directions are discussed with reference to the RDoC initiative and existing report-based conceptions of psychological traits. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Longitudinal Changes in Behavioral Approach System Sensitivity and Brain Structures Involved in Reward Processing during Adolescence

Science.gov (United States)

Urosevic, Snezana; Collins, Paul; Muetzel, Ryan; Lim, Kelvin; Luciana, Monica

2012-01-01

Adolescence is a period of radical normative changes and increased risk for substance use, mood disorders, and physical injury. Researchers have proposed that increases in reward sensitivity (i.e., sensitivity of the behavioral approach system [BAS]) and/or increases in reactivity to all emotional stimuli (i.e., reward and threat sensitivities)…

Analysis of inland crude oil spill threats, vulnerabilities, and emergency response in the midwest United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Brody, Thomas M; Di Bianca, Paisly; Krysa, Jan

2012-10-01

Although coastal oil spills tend to be highly publicized, crude oil spills in the United States affect inland areas relatively often. Spills to inland areas often affect sensitive environments and can have greater impacts to health and welfare than spills to coastal areas. For these reasons, the authors investigated inland crude oil spill threats, vulnerabilities, and emergency response in the midwestern U.S. states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. These states work with the Region 5 Offices of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Region 5's geospatial data in the Inland Sensitivity Atlas were turned into metrics indicating inland crude oil spill threats and vulnerabilities among the Region's sub-watersheds. These threats and vulnerabilities were weighted using data from the National Response Center and the Department of Energy's Environmental Restoration Priority System. The locations of the Region's emergency responders were geocoded in GIS. The GIS calculated the emergency response times to the Region's sub-watersheds. The resulting scatter plots are connected to the sub-watersheds in the map so stakeholders can (1) see the outlying sub-watersheds of concern and (2) better understand how reducing threats and better response time can reduce the risk of inland crude oil spills. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A.

Threat Assessment: Do Lone Terrorists Differ from Other Lone Offenders?

OpenAIRE

Diane M. Zierhoffer

2014-01-01

This study evaluates the viability of a threat assessment model developed to calculate the risk of targeted violence as a predictor of violence by potential lone terrorists. There is no profile, to date, which would assist in the identification of a lone terrorist prior to an attack. The threat assessment model developed by Borum, Fein, Vossekuil, and Berglund and described in “Threat Assessment: Defining an approach for evaluating risk of targeted violence” (1999) poses ten questions about t...

The Millennial generation as an insider threat: high risk or overhyped?

OpenAIRE

Fisher, David J.

2015-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Cyber security experts agree that insider threats are and will continue to be a threat to every organization. These threats come from trusted co-workers who, for one reason or another, betray their organizations and steal data, disrupt information systems, or corrupt the data. Millennials are commonly thought of as entitled, high maintenance, and less trustworthy than the older generations; in other words, they have personality traits ...

Climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament. From security threats to sustainable peace

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scheffran, Juergen [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Research Group Climate Change and Security

2009-07-01

In the future, nuclear and climate risks may interfere with each other in a mutually enforcing way. Con-flicts induced by climate change could contribute to global insecurity and create more incentives for states to rely on military force, including nuclear weapons. Rather than being a direct cause of war, cli-mate change significantly affects the delicate balance between social and environmental systems in a way that could undermine human security and societal stability with potentially grave consequences for international security. Increased reliance on nuclear energy to reduce carbon emissions will contribute to the risks of nuclear proliferation. A renewed nuclear arms race would consume considerable resources and undermine the conditions for tackling the problem of climate change in a cooperative manner. Nuclear war itself would severely destabilize human societies and the environment, not to speak of the possibility of a nuclear winter that would disrupt the atmosphere. On the other hand, finding solutions to one problem area could help to find solutions in the other. Pre-venting the dangers of climate change and nuclear war requires an integrated set of strategies that ad-dress the causes as well as the impacts on the natural and social environment. Institutions are needed to strengthen common, ecological and human security, build and reinforce conflict-resolution mechanisms and low-carbon energy alternatives, and create sustainable lifecycles that respect the capabilities of the living world. This article examines the linkages between nuclear and climate risks, identifies areas where both threats converge, and offers an approach to move from living under these security threats to building sustain-able peace. By bringing to light the multidimensional interplay between climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament, this study aims to help the reader grasp their interconnectedness and recognize its critical implications for the strategic security

Climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament. From security threats to sustainable peace

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scheffran, Juergen

2009-01-01

In the future, nuclear and climate risks may interfere with each other in a mutually enforcing way. Con-flicts induced by climate change could contribute to global insecurity and create more incentives for states to rely on military force, including nuclear weapons. Rather than being a direct cause of war, cli-mate change significantly affects the delicate balance between social and environmental systems in a way that could undermine human security and societal stability with potentially grave consequences for international security. Increased reliance on nuclear energy to reduce carbon emissions will contribute to the risks of nuclear proliferation. A renewed nuclear arms race would consume considerable resources and undermine the conditions for tackling the problem of climate change in a cooperative manner. Nuclear war itself would severely destabilize human societies and the environment, not to speak of the possibility of a nuclear winter that would disrupt the atmosphere. On the other hand, finding solutions to one problem area could help to find solutions in the other. Pre-venting the dangers of climate change and nuclear war requires an integrated set of strategies that ad-dress the causes as well as the impacts on the natural and social environment. Institutions are needed to strengthen common, ecological and human security, build and reinforce conflict-resolution mechanisms and low-carbon energy alternatives, and create sustainable lifecycles that respect the capabilities of the living world. This article examines the linkages between nuclear and climate risks, identifies areas where both threats converge, and offers an approach to move from living under these security threats to building sustain-able peace. By bringing to light the multidimensional interplay between climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament, this study aims to help the reader grasp their interconnectedness and recognize its critical implications for the strategic security

Functional effectiveness of threat appeals in exercise promotion messages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olivier Mairesse

2010-01-01

Full Text Available As more than 70% of individuals in Western societies can be categorized as sedentary and inactivity has been recognized to lead to a series of serious physical and psychological disorders, the importance of physical activity promotion is ever more emphasized. Many social marketing campaigns use threat (or fear appeals to promote healthy behaviors. Theoretical models, such as the Extended Parallel Process Model integrate concepts as 'perceived threat' and 'perceived efficacy' to explain how such messages operate and can cause diverse behavioral reactions. It is however still not entirely clear how these different aspects are valuated and combined to determine desired versus undesired response behaviors in individuals. In a functional integration task, threat-appeal based exercise promotion messages varying in psychological threat and efficacy content were shown to sedentary employees in order to assess how they affect their intention to engage in physical exercise. Our results show that individuals can be categorized in 4 different clusters depending on the way they valuate threat and efficacy appeals: i.e. individuals sensitive to both types of cues, those sensitive to either the threat or the efficacy component in the message and those insensitive to either one of them. As different segments of receivers of the message react differently to threat and efficacy combinations, it is concluded that different approaches to designing effective mass media campaigns may be required for effective exercise promotion.

Human element of corporate espionage risk management : literature review on assessment and control of outsider and insider threats

OpenAIRE

Sandberg, Jarkko

2015-01-01

The primary purpose of this study is to determine how suitable human risk management con- trols are against corporate espionage. Information risks are ascending problem with corpora- tions all over the world. Cyber attacks are commonplace, and the attackers are often trying to compromise valuable data assets. These malicious targeted attacks are bypassing traditional information security controls; therefore, organizations are endangered by these threats. Since the traditional information secu...

Airborne Particulate Threat Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patrick Treado; Oksana Klueva; Jeffrey Beckstead

2008-12-31

Aerosol threat detection requires the ability to discern between threat agents and ambient background particulate matter (PM) encountered in the environment. To date, Raman imaging technology has been demonstrated as an effective strategy for the assessment of threat agents in the presence of specific, complex backgrounds. Expanding our understanding of the composition of ambient particulate matter background will improve the overall performance of Raman Chemical Imaging (RCI) detection strategies for the autonomous detection of airborne chemical and biological hazards. Improving RCI detection performance is strategic due to its potential to become a widely exploited detection approach by several U.S. government agencies. To improve the understanding of the ambient PM background with subsequent improvement in Raman threat detection capability, ChemImage undertook the Airborne Particulate Threat Assessment (APTA) Project in 2005-2008 through a collaborative effort with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), under cooperative agreement number DE-FC26-05NT42594. During Phase 1 of the program, a novel PM classification based on molecular composition was developed based on a comprehensive review of the scientific literature. In addition, testing protocols were developed for ambient PM characterization. A signature database was developed based on a variety of microanalytical techniques, including scanning electron microscopy, FT-IR microspectroscopy, optical microscopy, fluorescence and Raman chemical imaging techniques. An automated particle integrated collector and detector (APICD) prototype was developed for automated collection, deposition and detection of biothreat agents in background PM. During Phase 2 of the program, ChemImage continued to refine the understanding of ambient background composition. Additionally, ChemImage enhanced the APICD to provide improved autonomy, sensitivity and specificity. Deliverables included a Final Report detailing our

Importance and sensitivity of parameters affecting the Zion Seismic Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

George, L.L.; O'Connell, W.J.

1985-06-01

This report presents the results of a study on the importance and sensitivity of structures, systems, equipment, components and design parameters used in the Zion Seismic Risk Calculations. This study is part of the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) supported by the NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The objective of this study is to provide the NRC with results on the importance and sensitivity of parameters used to evaluate seismic risk. These results can assist the NRC in making decisions dealing with the allocation of research resources on seismic issues. This study uses marginal analysis in addition to importance and sensitivity analysis to identify subject areas (input parameter areas) for improvements that reduce risk, estimate how much the improvement dfforts reduce risk, and rank the subject areas for improvements. Importance analysis identifies the systems, components, and parameters that are important to risk. Sensitivity analysis estimates the change in risk per unit improvement. Marginal analysis indicates the reduction in risk or uncertainty for improvement effort made in each subject area. The results described in this study were generated using the SEISIM (Systematic Evaluation of Important Safety Improvement Measures) and CHAIN computer codes. Part 1 of the SEISIM computer code generated the failure probabilities and risk values. Part 2 of SEISIM, along with the CHAIN computer code, generated the importance and sensitivity measures

Importance and sensitivity of parameters affecting the Zion Seismic Risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

George, L.L.; O' Connell, W.J.

1985-06-01

This report presents the results of a study on the importance and sensitivity of structures, systems, equipment, components and design parameters used in the Zion Seismic Risk Calculations. This study is part of the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) supported by the NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The objective of this study is to provide the NRC with results on the importance and sensitivity of parameters used to evaluate seismic risk. These results can assist the NRC in making decisions dealing with the allocation of research resources on seismic issues. This study uses marginal analysis in addition to importance and sensitivity analysis to identify subject areas (input parameter areas) for improvements that reduce risk, estimate how much the improvement dfforts reduce risk, and rank the subject areas for improvements. Importance analysis identifies the systems, components, and parameters that are important to risk. Sensitivity analysis estimates the change in risk per unit improvement. Marginal analysis indicates the reduction in risk or uncertainty for improvement effort made in each subject area. The results described in this study were generated using the SEISIM (Systematic Evaluation of Important Safety Improvement Measures) and CHAIN computer codes. Part 1 of the SEISIM computer code generated the failure probabilities and risk values. Part 2 of SEISIM, along with the CHAIN computer code, generated the importance and sensitivity measures.

Risk-sensitive control of stochastic hybrid systems on infinite time horizon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Runolfsson Thordur

1999-01-01

Full Text Available A risk-sensitive optimal control problem is considered for a hybrid system that consists of continuous time diffusion process that depends on a discrete valued mode variable that is modeled as a Markov chain. Optimality conditions are presented and conditions for the existence of optimal controls are derived. It is shown that the optimal risk-sensitive control problem is equivalent to the upper value of an associated stochastic differential game, and insight into the contributions of the noise input and mode variable to the risk sensitivity of the cost functional is given. Furthermore, it is shown that due to the mode variable risk sensitivity, the equivalence relationship that has been observed between risk-sensitive and H ∞ control in the nonhybrid case does not hold for stochastic hybrid systems.

Early life adversity during the infant sensitive period for attachment: Programming of behavioral neurobiology of threat processing and social behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maya Opendak

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Animals, including humans, require a highly coordinated and flexible system of social behavior and threat evaluation. However, trauma can disrupt this system, with the amygdala implicated as a mediator of these impairments in behavior. Recent evidence has further highlighted the context of infant trauma as a critical variable in determining its immediate and enduring consequences, with trauma experienced from an attachment figure, such as occurs in cases of caregiver-child maltreatment, as particularly detrimental. This review focuses on the unique role of caregiver presence during early-life trauma in programming deficits in social behavior and threat processing. Using data primarily from rodent models, we describe the interaction between trauma and attachment during a sensitive period in early life, which highlights the role of the caregiver’s presence in engagement of attachment brain circuitry and suppressing threat processing by the amygdala. These data suggest that trauma experienced directly from an abusive caregiver and trauma experienced in the presence of caregiver cues produce similar neurobehavioral deficits, which are unique from those resulting from trauma alone. We go on to integrate this information into social experience throughout the lifespan, including consequences for complex scenarios, such as dominance hierarchy formation and maintenance.

Development of a Model for Quantitative Assessment of Risks and Identification of Threats in Anti-Crisis Management of a Machine-Building Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kozyk Vasyl V.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is to develop a model for quantitative assessment of risks in anti-crisis management of a machine-building enterprise. The quantitative assessment will allow to identify among the risks the threats that can be considered as catastrophic risks. To assess the integral risk of anti-crisis management of the enterprise, there used a process approach distinguishing the process of anti-crisis management activity and the process of implementation of the anti-crisis program. Within the framework of the process the types of activity are singled out, for each of them risks are identified with revealing their reasons. There built a fuzzy hierarchical model comprising the following elements: terminal nodes — indicators (factors of risks; non-terminal nodes — separate risks that are characteristic for the processes and risks of each process as a whole; root of the tree — the integral risk of anti-crisis management. The expediency of building a hierarchical fuzzy model, within which conclusions are formed for intermediate variables, is substantiated. Based on the own research and taking into account the opinion of experts, the parameters of the trapezoidal membership functions for assessing indicators and risks are determined. Fuzzy bases of knowledge about the correlation are formed using the Mamdani algorithm. The adequacy of the model is estimated on the basis of the learning sample. The built fuzzy model makes it possible to obtain risk assessment based on the set values of the indicators, thus providing an analysis of the sensitivity of risks to various factors. It is easily adjusted to other conditions and types of economic activity of the enterprise.

Adrenocortical responses to offspring-directed threats in two open-nesting birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, Luke K; Bisson, Isabelle-Anne; Hayden, Timothy J; Wikelski, Martin; Romero, L Michael

2009-07-01

Dependent young are often easy targets for predators, so for many parent vertebrates, responding to offspring-directed threats is a fundamental part of reproduction. We tested the parental adrenocortical response of the endangered black-capped vireo (Vireo atricapilla) and the common white-eyed vireo (V. griseus) to acute and chronic threats to their offspring. Like many open-nesting birds, our study species experience high offspring mortality. Parents responded behaviorally to a predator decoy or human 1-2m from their nests, but, in contrast to similar studies of cavity-nesting birds, neither these acute threats nor chronic offspring-directed threats altered plasma corticosterone concentrations of parents. Although parents in this study showed no corticosterone response to offspring-directed threats, they always increased corticosterone concentrations in response to capture. To explain these results, we propose that parents perceive their risk of nest-associated death differently depending on nest type, with cavity-nesting adults perceiving greater risk to themselves than open-nesters that can readily detect and escape from offspring-directed threats. Our results agree with previous studies suggesting that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, a major physiological mechanism for coping with threats to survival, probably plays no role in coping with threats to offspring when risks to parents and offspring are not correlated. We extend that paradigm by demonstrating that nest style may influence how adults perceive the correlation between offspring-directed and self-directed threats.

Insider Threats: DOD Should Strengthen Management and Guidance to Protect Classified Information and Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2015-06-01

2011). Insiders have an advantage over others who may want to harm an organization because insiders may have an awareness of their...process currently includes threat assessments, a risk-indicator matrix , and a risk assessment to prompt organizations to consider threats and risk to...is to oversee departmental capabilities and resources to counter insider threats, and make recommendations on program improvements and resources

Workplace threats to health and job turnover among women workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Gucer, Patricia W; Oliver, Marc; McDiarmid, Melissa

2003-07-01

Is job turnover related to concern about workplace health risks? Using data from a national sample of working women, we examined the relationships among workplace risk communications, worker concerns about workplace threats from hazardous substances, indoor air quality, and job change. Eight percent reported changing a job as a result of concern over workplace threats to health. Previous workplace injury predicted concern about hazardous materials and indoor air quality as well as job change, but employer communication about workplace health risks was associated with less job change and less concern about indoor air quality. Women worry about workplace threats to their health enough to change their jobs, but employers may have the power to cut turnover costs and reduce disruption to workers' lives through the use of risk communication programs.

Threat driven modeling framework using petri nets for e-learning system.

Science.gov (United States)

Khamparia, Aditya; Pandey, Babita

2016-01-01

Vulnerabilities at various levels are main cause of security risks in e-learning system. This paper presents a modified threat driven modeling framework, to identify the threats after risk assessment which requires mitigation and how to mitigate those threats. To model those threat mitigations aspects oriented stochastic petri nets are used. This paper included security metrics based on vulnerabilities present in e-learning system. The Common Vulnerability Scoring System designed to provide a normalized method for rating vulnerabilities which will be used as basis in metric definitions and calculations. A case study has been also proposed which shows the need and feasibility of using aspect oriented stochastic petri net models for threat modeling which improves reliability, consistency and robustness of the e-learning system.

Predictors of Maternal Sensitivity in At-Risk Families

Science.gov (United States)

Neuhauser, Alex

2018-01-01

Maternal sensitivity is of central importance to a child's healthy development. This study examines how different types of psychosocial stress originating from the child, the parents, the context, and overall stress relate to maternal sensitivity. Psychosocial stress and its impact on maternal sensitivity are assessed in an at-risk sample of 248…

Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

2010-01-01

As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

2014-11-04

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

Life without risk?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hohlneicher, G.; Raschke, E.

1989-01-01

Mankind's sensitivity to new, global threats, to chemical and radioactive pollution and to interventions in the biological process actually gives rise to a one-sided and narrow range of reactions. Demands for zero-risk make one forget that a reduced risk many possibly lead to a far more dangerous risk in another place. That no uniform view of things can arise in this way is shown by these articles, from the areas of science, politics and the arts, on questions of world population, waste management, climatic change, genetic manipulation, philosophical and ethical problems of risk acceptance as well as the responsibility for risks. (DG) [de

Anomaly metrics to differentiate threat sources from benign sources in primary vehicle screening.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cohen, Israel Dov; Mengesha, Wondwosen

2011-09-01

Discrimination of benign sources from threat sources at Port of Entries (POE) is of a great importance in efficient screening of cargo and vehicles using Radiation Portal Monitors (RPM). Currently RPM's ability to distinguish these radiological sources is seriously hampered by the energy resolution of the deployed RPMs. As naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) are ubiquitous in commerce, false alarms are problematic as they require additional resources in secondary inspection in addition to impacts on commerce. To increase the sensitivity of such detection systems without increasing false alarm rates, alarm metrics need to incorporate the ability to distinguish benign and threat sources. Principal component analysis (PCA) and clustering technique were implemented in the present study. Such techniques were investigated for their potential to lower false alarm rates and/or increase sensitivity to weaker threat sources without loss of specificity. Results of the investigation demonstrated improved sensitivity and specificity in discriminating benign sources from threat sources.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

2010-01-01

Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

Longitudinal Changes in Behavioral Approach System Sensitivity and Brain Structures Involved in Reward Processing during Adolescence

OpenAIRE

Urošević, Snežana; Collins, Paul; Muetzel, Ryan; Lim, Kelvin; Luciana, Monica

2012-01-01

Adolescence is a period of radical normative changes and increased risk for substance use, mood disorders, and physical injury. Researchers have proposed that increases in reward sensitivity, i.e., sensitivity of the behavioral approach system (BAS), and/or increases in reactivity to all emotional stimuli (i.e., reward and threat sensitivities) lead to these phenomena. The present study is the first longitudinal investigation of changes in reward (i.e., BAS) sensitivity in 9 to 23-year-olds a...

Threats to security and ischaemic heart disease deaths: the case of homicides in Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Eileen H; Bruckner, Tim A

2017-02-01

Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) ranks as the leading cause of death worldwide. Whereas much attention focuses on behavioural and lifestyle factors, less research examines the role of acute, ambient stressors. An unprecedented rise in homicides in Mexico over the past decade and the attendant media coverage and publicity have raised international concern regarding its potential health sequelae. We hypothesize that the rise in homicides in Mexico acts as an ecological threat to security and elevates the risk of both transient ischaemic events and myocardial infarctions, thereby increasing IHD deaths. We applied time-series methods to monthly counts of IHD deaths and homicides in Mexico for 156 months spanning January 2000 to December 2012. Methods controlled for strong temporal patterns in IHD deaths, the unemployment rate and changes in the population size at risk. After controlling for trend and seasonality in IHD deaths, a 1-unit increase in the logged count of homicides coincides with a 7% increase in the odds of IHD death in that same month (95% confidence interval: 0.04 - 0.10). Inference remains robust to additional sensitivity checks, including a state-level fixed effects analysis. Our findings indicate that the elevated level of homicides in Mexico serves as a population-level stressor that acutely increases the risk of IHD death. This research adds to the growing literature documenting the role of ambient threats, or perceived threats, to security on cardiovascular health. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Reference-dependent risk sensitivity as rational inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Denrell, Jerker C

2015-07-01

Existing explanations of reference-dependent risk sensitivity attribute it to cognitive imperfections and heuristic choice processes. This article shows that behavior consistent with an S-shaped value function could be an implication of rational inferences about the expected values of alternatives. Theoretically, I demonstrate that even a risk-neutral Bayesian decision maker, who is uncertain about the reliability of observations, should use variability in observed outcomes as a predictor of low expected value for outcomes above a reference level, and as a predictor of high expected value for outcomes below a reference level. Empirically, I show that combining past outcomes using an S-shaped value function leads to accurate predictions about future values. The theory also offers a rationale for why risk sensitivity consistent with an inverse S-shaped value function should occur in experiments on decisions from experience with binary payoff distributions. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

E-War : an early warning and response methodology for buildings at risk to chemical and biological threats

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rastan, S.; Kozinski, J. [McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ (Canada); Foo, S.; Morofsky, E. [Public Works and Government Services, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Indoor Environments and Healthy Buildings

2004-07-01

Several government departments, academic institutions and private firms have collaborated on a research project to develop an Early Warning and Response (e-WAR) method to protect occupants in high-risk public buildings from chemical and biological threats. The project involves a heat, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) based monitoring system equipped with photo ionization and laser particle counter technologies to characterize baseline airborne concentrations. E-WAR recognizes out-of-norm events and instantly triggers a set of just-in-case (JIC) filtration, in-duct neutralization and decontamination responses to reduce the dispersion of toxic airborne materials within the building. The proposed system reduced the severity of any potential threat, as well as the cost of remediation. A scale model of the proposed system has been designed and developed. 45 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.

Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

2016-01-01

Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan E. Chamberlain

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds. For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community.

Resistance risk assessment within herbicide authorisation--a call for sensitivity data.

Science.gov (United States)

Ulber, Lena; Nordmeyer, Henning; Zwerger, Peter

2013-02-01

In most European countries, the risk of herbicide resistance is assessed as part of the authorisation of herbicides in accordance with EPPO Standard PP 1/213(2). Because the susceptibility of weed populations to a certain herbicide may vary greatly, one part of resistance risk assessment is the testing for sensitivity variation among different populations of target weed species with a high resistance risk. This paper emphasises the importance of sensitivity data provision with regard to the recent EU Regulation (EC) 1107/2009 concerning the placing of plant protection products on the market and outlines the main technical requirements for sensitivity data. A useful principle is that sensitivity data should be provided for all herbicides with a high resistance risk regardless of whether resistance has already evolved against the herbicidal substance. Methodical details regarding the generation of sensitivity data are discussed, together with remaining questions that will need to be addressed if a harmonised assessment of herbicide resistance risk is to be achieved. Copyright © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry.

Perceptions of HIV Seriousness, Risk, and Threat Among Online Samples of HIV-Negative Men Who Have Sex With Men in Seven Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Chard, Anna N; Metheny, Nicholas; Stephenson, Rob

2017-06-20

Rates of new HIV infections continue to increase worldwide among men who have sex with men (MSM). Despite effective prevention strategies such as condoms and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), low usage of both methods in many parts of the world hinder prevention efforts. An individual's perceptions of the risk of acquiring HIV and the seriousness they afford to seroconversion are important drivers of behavioral risk-taking. Understanding the behavioral factors suppressing the uptake of HIV prevention services is a critical step in informing strategies to improve interventions to combat the ongoing HIV pandemic among MSM. The study aimed to examine cross-national perceptions of HIV/AIDS seriousness, risk, and threat and the association between these perceptions and sociodemographic characteristics, relationships, and high-risk sexual behaviors among MSM. Participants in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Thailand, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States were recruited for a self-administered survey via Facebook (N=1908). Respondents were asked to rate their perceived seriousness from 1 (not at all serious) to 5 (very serious) of contracting HIV, their perceived risk from 1 (no risk) to 10 (very high risk) of contracting HIV based on their current behavior, and their perception of the threat of HIV-measured as their confidence in being able to stay HIV-negative throughout their lifetimes-on a scale from 1 (will not have HIV by the end of his lifetime) to 5 (will have HIV by the end of his lifetime). Covariates included sociodemographic factors, sexual behavior, HIV testing, drug use, and relationship status. Three ordered logistic regression models, one for each outcome variable, were fit for each country. Contracting HIV was perceived as serious (mean=4.1-4.6), but perceptions of HIV risk (mean=2.7-3.8) and threat of HIV (mean=1.7-2.2) were relatively low across countries. Older age was associated with significantly lower perceived seriousness of acquiring

A Quantitative Threats Analysis for the Florida Manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Michael C.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.

2007-01-01

The Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an endangered marine mammal endemic to the southeastern United States. The primary threats to manatee populations are collisions with watercraft and the potential loss of warm-water refuges. For the purposes of listing, recovery, and regulation under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), an understanding of the relative effects of the principal threats is needed. This work is a quantitative approach to threats analysis, grounded in the assumption that an appropriate measure of status under the ESA is based on the risk of extinction, as quantified by the probability of quasi-extinction. This is related to the qualitative threats analyses that are more common under the ESA, but provides an additional level of rigor, objectivity, and integration. In this approach, our philosophy is that analysis of the five threat factors described in Section 4(a)(1) of the ESA can be undertaken within an integrated quantitative framework. The basis of this threats analysis is a comparative population viability analysis. This involves forecasting the Florida manatee population under different scenarios regarding the presence of threats, while accounting for process variation (environmental, demographic, and catastrophic stochasticity) as well as parametric and structural uncertainty. We used the manatee core biological model (CBM) for this viability analysis, and considered the role of five threats: watercraft-related mortality, loss of warm-water habitat in winter, mortality in water-control structures, entanglement, and red tide. All scenarios were run with an underlying parallel structure that allowed a more powerful estimation of the effects of the various threats. The results reflect our understanding of manatee ecology (as captured in the structure of the CBM), our estimates of manatee demography (as described by the parameters in the model), and our characterization of the mechanisms by which the threats act on manatees. As an

Risk-sensitive optimal feedback control accounts for sensorimotor behavior under uncertainty.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arne J Nagengast

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Many aspects of human motor behavior can be understood using optimality principles such as optimal feedback control. However, these proposed optimal control models are risk-neutral; that is, they are indifferent to the variability of the movement cost. Here, we propose the use of a risk-sensitive optimal controller that incorporates movement cost variance either as an added cost (risk-averse controller or as an added value (risk-seeking controller to model human motor behavior in the face of uncertainty. We use a sensorimotor task to test the hypothesis that subjects are risk-sensitive. Subjects controlled a virtual ball undergoing Brownian motion towards a target. Subjects were required to minimize an explicit cost, in points, that was a combination of the final positional error of the ball and the integrated control cost. By testing subjects on different levels of Brownian motion noise and relative weighting of the position and control cost, we could distinguish between risk-sensitive and risk-neutral control. We show that subjects change their movement strategy pessimistically in the face of increased uncertainty in accord with the predictions of a risk-averse optimal controller. Our results suggest that risk-sensitivity is a fundamental attribute that needs to be incorporated into optimal feedback control models.

Counteracting effect of threat on reward enhancements during working memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Jong Moon; Padmala, Srikanth; Pessoa, Luiz

2015-01-01

Cognitive performance has been shown to be enhanced when performance-based rewards are at stake. On the other hand, task-irrelevant threat processing has been shown to have detrimental effects during several cognitive tasks. Crucially, the impact of reward and threat on cognition has been studied largely independently of one another. Hence, our understanding of how reward and threat simultaneously contribute to performance is incomplete. To fill in this gap, the present study investigated how reward and threat interact with one another during a cognitive task. We found that threat of shock counteracted the beneficial effect of reward during a working memory task. Furthermore, individual differences in self-reported reward-sensitivity and anxiety were linked to the extent to which reward and threat interacted during behaviour. Together, the current findings contribute to a limited but growing literature unravelling how positive and negative information processing jointly influence cognition.

The nuclear threat and the Nuclear Threat Initiative

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curtis, Charles

2001-01-01

Full text: President and chief operating officer of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), was invited by the IAEA Director General to speak about NTI and its mission at the IAEA Safeguards Symposium. Established by CNN founder Ted Turner and former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, NTI is a charitable organization working to strengthen global security by reducing the risk of use and preventing the spread of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. The foundation is global, concentrating not just on the United States, Russia, and other nations of the former Soviet Union, but also on those regions of greatest proliferation concern in Asia and the Middle East. NTI is working to close what it perceives as an increasingly dangerous gap between the threat from nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and the global response. NTI is supported by a pledge from Mr. Turner of at least $250 million over five years, among the largest sums any private individual has ever invested in these security issues. NTI's Board of Directors, an international team of experienced and knowledgeable experts, determines the overall direction of the foundation. (author)

Risk-Sensitive Control with Near Monotone Cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biswas, Anup; Borkar, V. S.; Suresh Kumar, K.

2010-01-01

The infinite horizon risk-sensitive control problem for non-degenerate controlled diffusions is analyzed under a 'near monotonicity' condition on the running cost that penalizes large excursions of the process.

Transmitting the sum of all fears: Iranian nuclear threat salience among offspring of Holocaust survivors.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrira, Amit

2015-07-01

Many Israelis are preoccupied with the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, frequently associating it with the danger of annihilation that existed during the Holocaust. The current article examined whether offspring of Holocaust survivors (OHS) are especially preoccupied and sensitive to the Iranian threat, and whether this susceptibility is a part of their increased general image of actual and potential threats, defined as the hostile world scenario (HWS). Study 1 (N = 106) showed that relative to comparisons, OHS reported more preoccupation with the Iranian nuclear threat. Moreover, the positive relationship between the salience of the Iranian threat and symptoms of anxiety was stronger among OHS. Study 2 (N = 450) replicated these findings, while focusing on the Iranian nuclear threat salience and symptoms of psychological distress. It further showed that OHS reported more negative engagement with the HWS (i.e., feeling that surrounding threats decrease one's sense of competence), which in turn mediated their increased preoccupation with the Iranian threat. The results suggest that intergenerational transmission of the Holocaust trauma includes heightened preoccupation with and sensitivity to potential threats of annihilation, and that the specific preoccupation with threats of annihilation reflects a part of a more general preoccupation with surrounding threats. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Threat-related amygdala functional connectivity is associated with 5-HTTLPR genotype and neuroticism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Martin Korsbak; Mc Mahon, Brenda; Andersen, Sofie Bech

2016-01-01

between right amygdala and mPFC and visual cortex, and between both amygdalae and left lateral orbitofrontal (lOFC) and ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (vlPFC). Notably, 5-HTTLPR moderated the association between neuroticism and functional connectivity between both amygdalae and left l...... is not fully understood. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we evaluated independent and interactive effects of the 5-HTTLPR genotype and neuroticism on amygdala functional connectivity during an emotional faces paradigm in 76 healthy individuals. Functional connectivity between left amygdala......Communication between the amygdala and other brain regions critically regulates sensitivity to threat, which has been associated with risk for mood and affective disorders. The extent to which these neural pathways are genetically determined or correlate with risk-related personality measures...

Threat and efficacy in Malaysia’s cancer news coverage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Collin Jerome

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Background: The news media plays important roles not only in creating and disseminating health messages, but also in influencing people’s perceptions of health and their health behaviours. However, much more needs to be known about the creation process, particularly how health messages are created with the goal of raising awareness and knowledge, and changing people’s attitudes and behaviours. This paper presents a study aimed at examining cancer risk messages in Malaysia’s leading newspapers. Methods: Our search identified count the total 73 articles related to cancer which were published in three leading Malaysian English dailies in 2012 – September 2017. Of these, 10 were selected for a content analysis using the Extended Parallel Process (EPPM Model. The analysis focused on the presence and the levels of two important components required for designing effective health risk message: threat (severity and susceptibility and efficacy (responses efficacy and self-efficacy. The language used in the news articles was also analysed to see whether it helped enhance the threat-efficacy levels which are crucial for increasing message acceptance and yielding behaviour change. Results: Present study shows that the varying presence of threat and efficacy in the articles as evidenced by messages that focused on threat alone with no efficacy and messages that highlighted both threat and efficacy. Results also show contrasting levels of threat and efficacy as evidenced by messages that possessed high levels of threat and efficacy and messages that revealed a high level of threat and a low level of efficacy. Furthermore, the contents were composed differently in terms of language use: some articles used neutral language while others used vivid and descriptive language in addressing the topic and target audience. These have implication on message acceptance and behaviour change where high levels of threat and efficacy, and the ways in which vivid

Truck bomb and insider threats to nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirsch, D.

1987-01-01

In the nuclear field, two the these weak links in the security chain are the truck bomb threat and the insider threat. The risks associated with terrorist use of vehicular bombs against nuclear targets surfaced (actually, resurfaced) followed the terrorist attacks on the US Embassy annex and the Marine compound in Leb Concern was expressed that similar attacks against nuclear facilities could result in substantial damage and release of radioactivity. Since the current regulations of the NRC require licensees to protect only against attacks on foot (and even then, only against very small attacking forces), shortly after the Lebanon bombings, that agency commenced an urgent rulemaking to require its licensees to protect against truck bombs. Inexplicably, that rulemaking was called off after research results indicated that the truck bomb threat to nuclear facilities was even more serious than previously thought. Even were nuclear facilities adequately protected against external attack, be the aim theft or sabotage, the greatest security risk to these sites - the threat of action by insiders - would remain. The traditional methods of protecting against the insider threat - such as the two-person rule, strict compartmentalization of vital areas, and design features that make damage to two or more redundant systems by one individual difficult - are generally expensive and have encountered substantial resistance from the nuclear industry, which has restrained the NRC from requiring them

Increased Flooding Risk - Accelerating Threat and Stakeholder Response

Science.gov (United States)

Atkinson, L. P.; Ezer, T.; De Young, R.; McShane, M. K.; McFarlane, B.

2012-12-01

Coastal cities have been adapting to coastal flooding for centuries. Now, with increased population along the coast combined with increased flooding because of sea level rise (SLR) the vulnerability of coastal cities has increased significantly. In this paper we will discuss the physical threat of accelerating sea level rise and the response of stakeholders. Sallenger et al (2012) stated "... we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modeled fingerprint of dynamic SLR." In the Northeast Hotspot (NEH) dynamic processes such as Gulf Stream transport can cause local sea level differences (Ezer, 2001). Sweet et al (2009) attributed the anomalously high sea level along the mid-Atlantic in 2009 to dynamic SLR. A recent paper (Ezer and Corlett, 2012 submitted), focused on Chesapeake Bay, confirms Sallenger et al. These accelerations suggest that the higher estimates of SLR in IPCC reports may be better estimates. The combination of local sea level rise and acceleration, even with average coastal storm surge, results in increased vulnerability and economic losses. We will use three examples of stakeholder response to this threat: shipbuilding, cities and insurance. Nuclear aircraft carrier drydock in Newport News, VA - The only drydock where nuclear powered aircraft carriers are built flooded during Hurricane Isabel. A study showed that with a 1 meter sea level rise and no change in storm severity they would have 'Major Flooding' every 4 months rather than every 27 years. Cities infrastructure - In a recent report on sea level rise, the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (representing nearly 2m people) found that "sea level rise will be a major issue", "there is not yet official state or federal guidance for addressing sea level rise", "…the "…U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has developed guidance…" for their

Mitigating Inadvertent Insider Threats with Incentives

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Debin; Wang, Xiaofeng; Camp, L. Jean

Inadvertent insiders are trusted insiders who do not have malicious intent (as with malicious insiders) but do not responsibly managing security. The result is often enabling a malicious outsider to use the privileges of the inattentive insider to implement an insider attack. This risk is as old as conversion of a weak user password into root access, but the term inadvertent insider is recently coined to identify the link between the behavior and the vulnerability. In this paper, we propose to mitigate this threat using a novel risk budget mechanism that offers incentives to an insider to behave according to the risk posture set by the organization. We propose assigning an insider a risk budget, which is a specific allocation of risk points, allowing employees to take a finite number of risk-seeking choice. In this way, the employee can complete her tasks without subverting the security system, as with absolute prohibitions. In the end, the organization penalizes the insider if she fails to accomplish her task within the budget while rewards her in the presence of a surplus. Most importantly. the risk budget requires that the user make conscious visible choices to take electronic risks. We describe the theory behind the system, including specific work on the insider threats. We evaluated this approach using human-subject experiments, which demonstrate the effectiveness of our risk budget mechanism. We also present a game theoretic analysis of the mechanism.

Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Megan K; Ahmed, Alaa A

2014-01-01

Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing) and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform). We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat.

Toddlers’ Duration of Attention towards Putative Threat

Science.gov (United States)

Kiel, Elizabeth J.; Buss, Kristin A.

2010-01-01

Although individual differences in reactions to novelty in the toddler years have been consistently linked to risk for developing anxious behavior, toddlers’ attention towards a novel, putatively threatening stimulus while in the presence of other enjoyable activities has rarely been examined as a precursor to such risk. The current study examined how attention towards an angry-looking gorilla mask in a room with alternative opportunities for play in 24-month-old toddlers predicted social inhibition when children entered kindergarten. Analyses examined attention to threat above and beyond and in interaction with both proximity to the mask and fear of novelty observed in other situations. Attention to threat interacted with proximity to the mask to predict social inhibition, such that attention to threat most strongly predicted social inhibition when toddlers stayed furthest from the mask. This relation occurred above and beyond the predictive relation between fear of novelty and social inhibition. Results are discussed within the broader literature of anxiety development and attentional processes in young children. PMID:21373365

Space Station Program threat and vulnerability analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Van Meter, Steven D.; Veatch, John D.

1987-01-01

An examination has been made of the physical security of the Space Station Program at the Kennedy Space Center in a peacetime environment, in order to furnish facility personnel with threat/vulnerability information. A risk-management approach is used to prioritize threat-target combinations that are characterized in terms of 'insiders' and 'outsiders'. Potential targets were identified and analyzed with a view to their attractiveness to an adversary, as well as to the consequentiality of the resulting damage.

Functionalized gold nanoparticle supported sensory mechanisms applied in detection of chemical and biological threat agents: A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Upadhyayula, Venkata K.K.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Smart sensors are needed for detection of chemical and biological threat agents. ► Smart sensors detect analytes with rapid speed, high sensitivity and selectivity. ► Functionalized gold nanoparticles (GNPs) can potentially smart sense threat agents. ► Functionalized GNPs support multiple analytical methods for sensing threat agents. ► Threat agents of all types can be detected using functionalized GNPs. - Abstract: There is a great necessity for development of novel sensory concepts supportive of smart sensing capabilities in defense and homeland security applications for detection of chemical and biological threat agents. A smart sensor is a detection device that can exhibit important features such as speed, sensitivity, selectivity, portability, and more importantly, simplicity in identifying a target analyte. Emerging nanomaterial based sensors, particularly those developed by utilizing functionalized gold nanoparticles (GNPs) as a sensing component potentially offer many desirable features needed for threat agent detection. The sensitiveness of physical properties expressed by GNPs, e.g. color, surface plasmon resonance, electrical conductivity and binding affinity are significantly enhanced when they are subjected to functionalization with an appropriate metal, organic or biomolecular functional groups. This sensitive nature of functionalized GNPs can be potentially exploited in the design of threat agent detection devices with smart sensing capabilities. In the presence of a target analyte (i.e., a chemical or biological threat agent) a change proportional to concentration of the analyte is observed, which can be measured either by colorimetric, fluorimetric, electrochemical or spectroscopic means. This article provides a review of how functionally modified gold colloids are applied in the detection of a broad range of threat agents, including radioactive substances, explosive compounds, chemical warfare agents, biotoxins, and

Functionalized gold nanoparticle supported sensory mechanisms applied in detection of chemical and biological threat agents: A review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Upadhyayula, Venkata K.K., E-mail: Upadhyayula.Venkata@epa.gov [Oak Ridge Institute of Science and Education (ORISE), MC-100-44, PO Box 117, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States)

2012-02-17

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Smart sensors are needed for detection of chemical and biological threat agents. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Smart sensors detect analytes with rapid speed, high sensitivity and selectivity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Functionalized gold nanoparticles (GNPs) can potentially smart sense threat agents. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Functionalized GNPs support multiple analytical methods for sensing threat agents. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Threat agents of all types can be detected using functionalized GNPs. - Abstract: There is a great necessity for development of novel sensory concepts supportive of smart sensing capabilities in defense and homeland security applications for detection of chemical and biological threat agents. A smart sensor is a detection device that can exhibit important features such as speed, sensitivity, selectivity, portability, and more importantly, simplicity in identifying a target analyte. Emerging nanomaterial based sensors, particularly those developed by utilizing functionalized gold nanoparticles (GNPs) as a sensing component potentially offer many desirable features needed for threat agent detection. The sensitiveness of physical properties expressed by GNPs, e.g. color, surface plasmon resonance, electrical conductivity and binding affinity are significantly enhanced when they are subjected to functionalization with an appropriate metal, organic or biomolecular functional groups. This sensitive nature of functionalized GNPs can be potentially exploited in the design of threat agent detection devices with smart sensing capabilities. In the presence of a target analyte (i.e., a chemical or biological threat agent) a change proportional to concentration of the analyte is observed, which can be measured either by colorimetric, fluorimetric, electrochemical or spectroscopic means. This article provides a review of how functionally modified gold colloids are applied in the detection of a broad

[Impact of Socioeconomic Risk Exposure on Maternal Sensitivity, Stress and Family Functionality].

Science.gov (United States)

Sidor, Anna; Köhler, Hubert; Cierpka, Manfred

2018-03-01

Impact of Socioeconomic Risk Exposure on Maternal Sensitivity, Stress and Family Functionality Parental stress exposure can influence the parent-child relationship, child development and child wellbeing in negative ways. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of socio-economic risk exposure on the quality of the mother-child-interaction and family functionality. A sample of 294 mother-infant dyads at psychosocial risk was compared with a lower-risk, middle-class sample of 125 mother-infant-dyads in regard to maternal sensitivity/child's cooperation (CARE-Index), maternal stress (PSI-SF) and family functionality (FB-K). Lower levels of maternal sensitivity/child's cooperation and by trend also of the family functionality were found among the mothers from the at-risk sample in comparison to the low-risk sample. The level of maternal stress was similar in both samples. The results underpin the negative effects of a socio-economic risk exposure on the mother-child relationship. An early, sensitivity-focused family support could be encouraged to counteract the negative effects of early socioeconomic stress.

Categorizing threat : building and using a generic threat matrix.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woodard, Laura; Veitch, Cynthia K.; Thomas, Sherry Reede; Duggan, David Patrick

2007-09-01

The key piece of knowledge necessary for building defenses capable of withstanding or surviving cyber and kinetic attacks is an understanding of the capabilities posed by threats to a government, function, or system. With the number of threats continuing to increase, it is no longer feasible to enumerate the capabilities of all known threats and then build defenses based on those threats that are considered, at the time, to be the most relevant. Exacerbating the problem for critical infrastructure entities is the fact that the majority of detailed threat information for higher-level threats is held in classified status and is not available for general use, such as the design of defenses and the development of mitigation strategies. To reduce the complexity of analyzing threat, the threat space must first be reduced. This is achieved by taking the continuous nature of the threat space and creating an abstraction that allows the entire space to be grouped, based on measurable attributes, into a small number of distinctly different levels. The work documented in this report is an effort to create such an abstraction.

Linking terrestrial and marine conservation planning and threats analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tallis, Heather; Ferdaña, Zach; Gray, Elizabeth

2008-02-01

The existence of the Gulf of Mexico dead zone makes it clear that marine ecosystems can be damaged by terrestrial inputs. Marine and terrestrial conservation planning need to be aligned in an explicit fashion to fully represent threats to marine systems. To integrate conservation planning for terrestrial and marine systems, we used a novel threats assessment that included 5 cross-system threats in a site-prioritization exercise for the Pacific Northwest coast ecoregion (U.S.A.). Cross-system threats are actions or features in one ecological realm that have effects on species in another realm. We considered bulkheads and other forms of shoreline hardening threats to terrestrial systems and roads, logging, agriculture, and urban areas threats to marine systems. We used 2 proxies of freshwater influence on marine environments, validated against a mechanistic model and field observations, to propagate land-based threats into marine sites. We evaluated the influence of cross-system threats on conservation priorities by comparing MARXAN outputs for 3 scenarios that identified terrestrial and marine priorities simultaneously: (1) no threats, (2) single-system threats, and (3) single- and cross-system threats. Including cross-system threats changed the threat landscape dramatically. As a result the best plan that included only single-system threats identified 323 sites (161,500 ha) at risk from cross-system threats. Including these threats changed the location of best sites. By comparing the best and sum solutions of the single- and cross-system scenarios, we identified areas ideal for preservation or restoration through integrated management. Our findings lend quantitative support to the call for explicitly integrated decision making and management action in terrestrial and marine ecosystems.

A Risk Management Approach to the "Insider Threat"

Science.gov (United States)

Bishop, Matt; Engle, Sophie; Frincke, Deborah A.; Gates, Carrie; Greitzer, Frank L.; Peisert, Sean; Whalen, Sean

Recent surveys indicate that the financial impact and operating losses due to insider intrusions are increasing. But these studies often disagree on what constitutes an "insider;" indeed, manydefine it only implicitly. In theory, appropriate selection of, and enforcement of, properly specified security policies should prevent legitimate users from abusing their access to computer systems, information, and other resources. However, even if policies could be expressed precisely, the natural mapping between the natural language expression of a security policy, and the expression of that policyin a form that can be implemented on a computer system or network, createsgaps in enforcement. This paper defines "insider" precisely, in termsof thesegaps, andexploresan access-based modelfor analyzing threats that include those usually termed "insider threats." This model enables an organization to order its resources based on thebusinessvalue for that resource andof the information it contains. By identifying those users with access to high-value resources, we obtain an ordered list of users who can cause the greatest amount of damage. Concurrently with this, we examine psychological indicators in order to determine which usersareatthe greatestriskofacting inappropriately. We concludebyexamining how to merge this model with one of forensic logging and auditing.

A New Framework to Minimize Insider Threats in Nuclear Power Operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suh, Young A; Yim, Man-Sung [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

In a 2008 report, IAEA presented preventive and protective measures against such threat. These are summarized as : (1) Exclude potential insiders by identifying undesirable behavior or characteristics, which may indicate motivation, prior to allowing them access; (2) Exclude further potential insiders by identifying undesirable behavior or characteristics, which may indicate motivation, after they have access; (3) Minimize opportunities for malicious acts by limiting access, authority and knowledge, and by other measures; (4) Detect, delay and respond to malicious acts. The nuclear security risk, i.e. insider threat, has concerned continuously because the existing physical protection system is only for outsider threats. In addition, with high possibility of use of multicultural workforce in newcomers' NPPs, the detection and prediction of insider threat is a hot potato. Thus, this paper suggested a new framework for predicting and detecting the insider threat. This framework integrates the behavioral indicators, stimulus monitoring and cognitive monitoring. This framework open a chance to detect and predict the insider before commits a crime accurately. This model can be direct application to reduce the security risks in multicultural environment.

A New Framework to Minimize Insider Threats in Nuclear Power Operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suh, Young A; Yim, Man-Sung

2016-01-01

In a 2008 report, IAEA presented preventive and protective measures against such threat. These are summarized as : (1) Exclude potential insiders by identifying undesirable behavior or characteristics, which may indicate motivation, prior to allowing them access; (2) Exclude further potential insiders by identifying undesirable behavior or characteristics, which may indicate motivation, after they have access; (3) Minimize opportunities for malicious acts by limiting access, authority and knowledge, and by other measures; (4) Detect, delay and respond to malicious acts. The nuclear security risk, i.e. insider threat, has concerned continuously because the existing physical protection system is only for outsider threats. In addition, with high possibility of use of multicultural workforce in newcomers' NPPs, the detection and prediction of insider threat is a hot potato. Thus, this paper suggested a new framework for predicting and detecting the insider threat. This framework integrates the behavioral indicators, stimulus monitoring and cognitive monitoring. This framework open a chance to detect and predict the insider before commits a crime accurately. This model can be direct application to reduce the security risks in multicultural environment

Using species sensitivity distribution approach to assess the risks of commonly detected agricultural pesticides to Australia's tropical freshwater ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Pathiratne, Asoka; Kroon, Frederieke J

2016-02-01

To assess the potential impacts of agricultural pesticides on tropical freshwater ecosystems, the present study developed temperature-specific, freshwater species protection concentrations (i.e., ecotoxicity threshold values) for 8 pesticides commonly detected in Australia's tropical freshwaters. Because relevant toxicity data for native tropical freshwater species to assess the ecological risks were mostly absent, scientifically robust toxicity data obtained at ≥20 °C were used for ecologically relevant taxonomic groups representing primary producers and consumers. Species sensitivity distribution (SSD) curves were subsequently generated for predicted chronic exposure using Burrlioz 2.0 software with mixed chronic and converted acute data relevant to exposure conditions at ≥20 °C. Ecotoxicity threshold values for tropical freshwater ecosystem protection were generated for ametryn, atrazine, diuron, metolachlor, and imidacloprid (all moderate reliability), as well as simazine, hexazinone, and tebuthiuron (all low reliability). Using these SSD curves, the retrospective risk assessments for recently reported pesticide concentrations highlight that the herbicides ametryn, atrazine, and diuron are of major concern for ecological health in Australia's tropical freshwater ecosystems. The insecticide imidacloprid also appears to pose an emerging threat to the most sensitive species in tropical freshwater ecosystems. The exposed temperature-specific approach may be applied to develop water quality guideline values for other environmental contaminants detected in tropical freshwater ecosystems until reliable and relevant toxicity data are generated using representative native species. © 2015 SETAC.

Avoidance Denial versus Optimistic Denial in Reaction to the Threat of Future Cardiovascular Disease

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Suzanne C.; Ting, Sarah A.

2012-01-01

Two distinctly different denial-based threat orientations (avoidance denial and optimistic denial) were examined using a message about the future risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) for young adults. Participants (N = 101) completed measures of denial-based dispositional threat orientations, current eating, comparative risk, and objective risk…

Why did the meerkat cross the road? Flexible adaptation of phylogenetically-old behavioural strategies to modern-day threats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolas Perony

Full Text Available Risk-sensitive adaptive spatial organisation during group movement has been shown to efficiently minimise the risks associated with external ecological threats. Whether animals can draw on such behaviours when confronted with man-made threats is generally less clear. We studied road-crossing in a wild, but habituated, population of meerkats living in the Kalahari Desert, South Africa. We found that dominant females, the core member in meerkat social systems, led groups to the road significantly more often than subordinates, yet were consistently less likely to cross first. Our results suggest that a reshuffling occurs in progression order when meerkat groups reach the road. By employing a simple model of collective movement, we have shown that risk aversion alone may be sufficient to explain this reshuffling, but that the risk aversion of dominant females toward road crossing is significantly higher than that of subordinates. It seems that by not crossing first, dominant females avoid occupying the most risky, exposed locations, such as at the front of the group--a potential selfish strategy that also promotes the long-term stability and hence reproductive output of their family groups. We argue that our findings support the idea that animals can flexibly apply phylogenetically-old behavioural strategies to deal with emerging modern-day problems.

Security Risk Assessment Process for UAS in the NAS CNPC Architecture

Science.gov (United States)

Iannicca, Dennis Christopher; Young, Daniel Paul; Suresh, Thadhani; Winter, Gilbert A.

2013-01-01

This informational paper discusses the risk assessment process conducted to analyze Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) architectures for integrating civil Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS). The assessment employs the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Risk Management framework to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks to these architectures and recommends corresponding mitigating security controls. This process builds upon earlier work performed by RTCA Special Committee (SC) 203 and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to roadmap the risk assessment methodology and to identify categories of information security risks that pose a significant impact to aeronautical communications systems. A description of the deviations from the typical process is described in regards to this aeronautical communications system. Due to the sensitive nature of the information, data resulting from the risk assessment pertaining to threats, vulnerabilities, and risks is beyond the scope of this paper

Basic concepts on threat, vulnerability and risk associated to a process of massive use of gaseous fuels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ospina G, J.A.

1998-01-01

The massive use of gaseous fuels, natural gas and liquefied gas of the oil or G.L.P., demands the implementation and complex technologies utilization in each one of the technical activities operative that transportation, distribution and consumption of these fuels requires, in order to accomplish each one of they in the form most efficient and possible insurance. Natural phenomena (earthquakes, landslides) and technical phenomena and caused by the man (terrorism, not appropriate designs of transportation and distribution net, wrong manipulation of the gas equipment) represent a latent danger for the distributors as well as for the users of the gas, generating a threat, of large proportions, for the normal development of the program of massive use of the gas, in any geographical environment where this is implemented. In this article are described the disaster concepts, threat, vulnerability and risk and the form as are related to the project of massive use of the gas, basically to transportation areas, distribution and final use

Threat Assessment: Do Lone Terrorists Differ from Other Lone Offenders?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diane M. Zierhoffer

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This study evaluates the viability of a threat assessment model developed to calculate the risk of targeted violence as a predictor of violence by potential lone terrorists. There is no profile, to date, which would assist in the identification of a lone terrorist prior to an attack. The threat assessment model developed by Borum, Fein, Vossekuil, and Berglund and described in “Threat Assessment: Defining an approach for evaluating risk of targeted violence” (1999 poses ten questions about the patterns of thinking and behaviors that may precipitate an attack of targeted violence. Three terrorists are studied to assess the model’s value as a predictor of terrorism. It is assessed for its use within law enforcement, during an investigation of someone brought to attention as a possible terrorist and for family members or friends who suspect potential terrorist behavior. Would these questions encourage someone to report a friend to prevent a possible attack? This threat assessment model provides a foundation for future research focused on developing a structured risk assessment for lone terrorists. In its present form, the questions can assist both citizens and law enforcement personnel in identifying the patterns of thought and behavior potentially indicative of a lone terrorist.

Digital Threat and Vulnerability Management: The SVIDT Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roland W. Scholz

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The Digital Revolution is inducing major threats to many types of human systems. We present the SVIDT method (a Strengths, Vulnerability, and Intervention Assessment related to Digital Threats for managing the vulnerabilities of human systems with respect to digital threats and changes. The method first performs a multilevel system–actor analysis for assessing vulnerabilities and strengths with respect to digital threats. Then, the method identifies threat scenarios that may become real. By constructing, evaluating, and launching interventions against all identified digital threats and their critical negative outcomes, the resilience of a specific human system can be improved. The evaluation of interventions is done when strengthening the adaptive capacity, i.e., a system’s capability to cope with negative outcomes that may take place in the future. The SVIDT method is embedded in the framework of coupled human–environment systems, the theory of risk and vulnerability assessment, types of adaptation (assimilation vs. accommodation, and a comprehensive sustainability evaluation. The SVIDT method is exemplarily applied to an enterprise (i.e., a Swiss casino for which online gaming has become an essential digital-business field. The discussion reflects on the specifics of digital threats and discusses both the potential benefits and limitations of the SVIDT method.

Organizational Security Threats Related to Portable Data Storage Devices: Qualitative Exploratory Inquiry

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Paul K.

2017-01-01

There has been a significant growth of portable devices capable of storing both personal data as well as sensitive organizational data. This growth of these portable devices has led to an increased threat of cyber-criminal activity. The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of security threats to the data assets of organizations…

Life without risk. Leben ohne Risiko

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hohlneicher, G; Raschke, E [eds.

1989-01-01

Mankind's sensitivity to new, global threats, to chemical and radioactive pollution and to interventions in the biological process actually gives rise to a one-sided and narrow range of reactions. Demands for zero-risk make one forget that a reduced risk many possibly lead to a far more dangerous risk in another place. That no uniform view of things can arise in this way is shown by these articles, from the areas of science, politics and the arts, on questions of world population, waste management, climatic change, genetic manipulation, philosophical and ethical problems of risk acceptance as well as the responsibility for risks. (DG).

Identifying at-risk employees: A behavioral model for predicting potential insider threats

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Noonan, Christine F.; Dalton, Angela C.

2010-09-01

A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee’s behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. In many of these crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they could be assessed by a person experienced in psychosocial evaluations. We have developed a model using a Bayesian belief network with the help of human resources staff, experienced in evaluating behaviors in staff. We conducted an experiment to assess its agreement with human resources and management professionals, with positive results. If implemented in an operational setting, the model would be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment that can raise an alarm about employees who pose higher insider threat risks. In separate work, we combine this psychosocial model’s assessment with computer workstation behavior to raise the efficacy of recognizing an insider crime in the making.

Cyber threats within civil aviation

Science.gov (United States)

Heitner, Kerri A.

Existing security policies in civil aviation do not adequately protect against evolving cyber threats. Cybersecurity has been recognized as a top priority among some aviation industry leaders. Heightened concerns regarding cyber threats and vulnerabilities surround components utilized in compliance with the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Next Generation Air Transportation (NextGen) implementation. Automated Dependent Surveillance-B (ADS-B) and Electronic Flight Bags (EFB) have both been exploited through the research of experienced computer security professionals. Civil aviation is essential to international infrastructure and if its critical assets were compromised, it could pose a great risk to public safety and financial infrastructure. The purpose of this research was to raise awareness of aircraft system vulnerabilities in order to provoke change among current national and international cybersecurity policies, procedures and standards. Although the education of cyber threats is increasing in the aviation industry, there is not enough urgency when creating cybersecurity policies. This project intended to answer the following questions: What are the cyber threats to ADS-B of an aircraft in-flight? What are the cyber threats to EFB? What is the aviation industry's response to the issue of cybersecurity and in-flight safety? ADS-B remains unencrypted while the FAA's mandate to implement this system is rapidly approaching. The cyber threat of both portable and non-portable EFB's have received increased publicity, however, airlines are not responding quick enough (if at all) to create policies for the use of these devices. Collectively, the aviation industry is not being proactive enough to protect its aircraft or airport network systems. That is not to say there are not leaders in cybersecurity advancement. These proactive organizations must set the standard for the future to better protect society and it's most reliable form of transportation.

Risk-sensitive mean-field games

KAUST Repository

Tembine, Hamidou

2014-04-01

In this paper, we study a class of risk-sensitive mean-field stochastic differential games. We show that under appropriate regularity conditions, the mean-field value of the stochastic differential game with exponentiated integral cost functional coincides with the value function satisfying a Hamilton -Jacobi- Bellman (HJB) equation with an additional quadratic term. We provide an explicit solution of the mean-field best response when the instantaneous cost functions are log-quadratic and the state dynamics are affine in the control. An equivalent mean-field risk-neutral problem is formulated and the corresponding mean-field equilibria are characterized in terms of backward-forward macroscopic McKean-Vlasov equations, Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations, and HJB equations. We provide numerical examples on the mean field behavior to illustrate both linear and McKean-Vlasov dynamics. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

Risk-sensitive mean-field games

KAUST Repository

Tembine, Hamidou; Zhu, Quanyan; Başar, Tamer

2014-01-01

In this paper, we study a class of risk-sensitive mean-field stochastic differential games. We show that under appropriate regularity conditions, the mean-field value of the stochastic differential game with exponentiated integral cost functional coincides with the value function satisfying a Hamilton -Jacobi- Bellman (HJB) equation with an additional quadratic term. We provide an explicit solution of the mean-field best response when the instantaneous cost functions are log-quadratic and the state dynamics are affine in the control. An equivalent mean-field risk-neutral problem is formulated and the corresponding mean-field equilibria are characterized in terms of backward-forward macroscopic McKean-Vlasov equations, Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations, and HJB equations. We provide numerical examples on the mean field behavior to illustrate both linear and McKean-Vlasov dynamics. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

Potential Threats of Information Disclosure in Social Media: a Systematic Literature Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Budi Yulianto

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Along with the growth of social media, a variety of potential threats to users is also increasing. These kinds of threats often occur because the users accidentally or unknowingly disclose their information or identity on social media. Threats resulted from the disclosure of information are needed to be known so that the users can understand the risks that arise and take precautions. This research was aimed to summarize the potential threats arising from the information disclosure in social media. The research method used was a systematic literature review to explore and summarize the literatures that discuss the specific topic. The research results show that the potential threats are mostly social threats and identity theft. 

Physician office readiness for managing Internet security threats.

Science.gov (United States)

Keshavjee, K; Pairaudeau, N; Bhanji, A

2006-01-01

Internet security threats are evolving toward more targeted and focused attacks.Increasingly, organized crime is involved and they are interested in identity theft. Physicians who use Internet in their practice are at risk for being invaded. We studied 16 physician practices in Southern Ontario for their readiness to manage internet security threats. Overall, physicians have an over-inflated sense of preparedness. Security practices such as maintaining a firewall and conducting regular virus checks were not consistently done.

A Pilot Examination of the Methods Used to Counteract Insider Threat Security Risks Associated with the Use of Radioactive Materials in the Research and Clinical Setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsenov, B G; Emery, R J; Whitehead, L W; Gonzalez, J Reingle; Gemeinhardt, G L

2018-03-01

While many organizations maintain multiple layers of security control methodologies to prevent outsiders from gaining unauthorized access, persons such as employees or contractors who have been granted legitimate access can represent an "insider threat" risk. Interestingly, some of the most notable radiological events involving the purposeful contamination or exposure of individuals appear to have been perpetrated by insiders. In the academic and medical settings, radiation safety professionals focus their security efforts on (1) ensuring controls are in place to prevent unauthorized access or removal of sources, and (2) increasing security controls for the unescorted accessing of large sources of radioactivity (known as "quantities of concern"). But these controls may not completely address the threat insiders represent when radioactive materials below these quantities are present. The goal of this research project was to characterize the methodologies currently employed to counteract the insider security threat for the misuse or purposeful divergence of radioactive materials used in the academic and medical settings. A web-based survey was used to assess how practicing radiation safety professionals in academic and medical settings anticipate, evaluate, and control insider threat security risks within their institutions. While all respondents indicated that radioactive sources are being used in amounts below quantities of concern, only 6 % consider insider threat security issues as part of the protocol review for the use of general radioactive materials. The results of this survey identify several opportunities for improvement for institutions to address security gaps.

Ranking ecological risks of multiple chemical stressors on amphibians.

Science.gov (United States)

Fedorenkova, Anastasia; Vonk, J Arie; Lenders, H J Rob; Creemers, Raymond C M; Breure, Anton M; Hendriks, A Jan

2012-06-01

Populations of amphibians have been declining worldwide since the late 1960s. Despite global concern, no studies have quantitatively assessed the major causes of this decline. In the present study, species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) were developed to analyze the sensitivity of anurans for ammonium, nitrate, heavy metals (cadmium, copper), pesticides (18 compounds), and acidification (pH) based on laboratory toxicity data. Ecological risk (ER) was calculated as the probability that a measured environmental concentration of a particular stressor in habitats where anurans were observed would exceed the toxic effect concentrations derived from the species sensitivity distributions. The assessment of ER was used to rank the stressors according to their potential risk to anurans based on a case study of Dutch freshwater bodies. The derived ERs revealed that threats to populations of anurans decreased in the sequence of pH, copper, diazinon, ammonium, and endosulfan. Other stressors studied were of minor importance. The method of deriving ER by combining field observation data and laboratory data provides insight into potential threats to species in their habitats and can be used to prioritize stressors, which is necessary to achieve effective management in amphibian conservation. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Reducing Stereotype Threat in Urban Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Merillat, Bethany D.; Corrigan, Diane G.; Harper, Brian E.

2018-01-01

Research suggests student performance may be negatively influenced by stereotype threat, "being at risk of confirming, as self-characteristic, a negative stereotype about one's group" (Steele and Aronson in "J Personal Soc Psychol" 69(5):797, 1995). However, studies have also found that educating students about stereotype…

Risk factors associated with sensitization to hydroxyisohexyl 3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde.

Science.gov (United States)

Uter, Wolfgang; Geier, Johannes; Schnuch, Axel; Gefeller, Olaf

2013-08-01

Hydroxyisohexyl 3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde (HICC) is a synthetic fragrance chemical and an important contact allergen, at least in Europe. Despite this importance, little is known about risk factors associated with this allergen. To examine factors from the history and clinical presentation of patch tested patients associated with HICC sensitization. Contact allergy surveillance data of 95 637 patients collected by the Information Network of Departments of Dermatology (IVDK, www.ivkd.org) in 2002-2011 were analysed. Point and interval estimates of the relative risk were derived from multifactorial logistic regression modelling. The overall prevalence of HICC sensitization was 2.24%. The strongest risk factors were polysensitization and dermatitis of the axillae, followed by dermatitis at other sites. No consistent and significant time trend was observed in this analysis. As compared with the youngest patients, the odds of HICC sensitization increased approximately three-fold in the 52-67-year age group, and strongly declined with further increasing age. The risk pattern with regard to age and affected anatomical site differed from that observed with other fragrance screening allergens. Cosmetic exposure, as broadly defined here, was a stronger and more prevalent individual risk factor than occupational exposure. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Megan K. O’Brien

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform. We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat.

The role of perceived threat in the emergence of PTSD and depression symptoms during warzone deployment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lancaster, Cynthia L; Cobb, Adam R; Lee, Han-Joo; Telch, Michael J

2016-07-01

Numerous studies have shown that level of exposure to combat-related stressors is a robust risk factor for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression among military personnel deployed to a warzone. Threat perception of warzone experiences assessed retrospectively has been consistently linked to increased risk for PTSD and depression months or even years after returning from deployment. However, little is known about concurrent relations between perceived threat, deployment stress, and stress-related symptoms during deployment. Using a novel in-theater web-based assessment system, we investigated the unique and joint contribution of threat perception and deployment stressors in predicting the emergence of PTSD and depression symptoms during deployment. Soldiers (N = 150) completed assessments of deployment stressors, perceived threat, PTSD symptoms, and depression symptoms throughout deployment to Iraq. Results revealed that perceived threat potentiated the increase in PTSD symptoms as a result of increases in deployment stressors. In contrast, perceived threat, but not warzone stressors, uniquely predicted depression symptoms. Results highlight the important role of threat perception as a risk marker for the acute experience of depression and PTSD symptoms during deployment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Tourism sector preparedness in zones with a high seismic risk: Case study of the Capital Region of Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Lihui, W.; Wang, D.

2017-12-01

Japan is a country highly vulnerable to natural disasters, especially earthquakes. Tourism, as a strategic industry in Japan, is especially vulnerable to destructive earthquake disasters owing to the characteristics of vulnerability, sensitivity and substitutability. Here we aim to provide theoretical understanding of the perception and responses of tourism managers towards damaging disasters in tourism destinations with high seismic risks. We conducted surveys among the mangers of tourism businesses in the capital area of Japan in 2014 and applied structural equation modeling techniques to empirically test the proposed model with four latent variables, which are risk perception, threat knowledge, disaster preparedness and earthquake preparedness. Our results show that threat knowledge affects risk perception and disaster preparedness positively. In addition, disaster preparedness positively affects earthquake preparedness. However, the proposed paths from risk perception to disaster preparedness, risk perception to earthquake preparedness, and threat knowledge to earthquake preparedness were not statistically significant. Our results may provide references for policymakers in promoting crisis planning in tourism destination with high seismic risks.

A Stochastic Maximum Principle for Risk-Sensitive Mean-Field Type Control

KAUST Repository

Djehiche, Boualem; Tembine, Hamidou; Tempone, Raul

2015-01-01

In this paper we study mean-field type control problems with risk-sensitive performance functionals. We establish a stochastic maximum principle (SMP) for optimal control of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of mean-field type, in which the drift and the diffusion coefficients as well as the performance functional depend not only on the state and the control but also on the mean of the distribution of the state. Our result extends the risk-sensitive SMP (without mean-field coupling) of Lim and Zhou (2005), derived for feedback (or Markov) type optimal controls, to optimal control problems for non-Markovian dynamics which may be time-inconsistent in the sense that the Bellman optimality principle does not hold. In our approach to the risk-sensitive SMP, the smoothness assumption on the value-function imposed in Lim and Zhou (2005) needs not be satisfied. For a general action space a Peng's type SMP is derived, specifying the necessary conditions for optimality. Two examples are carried out to illustrate the proposed risk-sensitive mean-field type SMP under linear stochastic dynamics with exponential quadratic cost function. Explicit solutions are given for both mean-field free and mean-field models.

A Stochastic Maximum Principle for Risk-Sensitive Mean-Field Type Control

KAUST Repository

Djehiche, Boualem

2015-02-24

In this paper we study mean-field type control problems with risk-sensitive performance functionals. We establish a stochastic maximum principle (SMP) for optimal control of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of mean-field type, in which the drift and the diffusion coefficients as well as the performance functional depend not only on the state and the control but also on the mean of the distribution of the state. Our result extends the risk-sensitive SMP (without mean-field coupling) of Lim and Zhou (2005), derived for feedback (or Markov) type optimal controls, to optimal control problems for non-Markovian dynamics which may be time-inconsistent in the sense that the Bellman optimality principle does not hold. In our approach to the risk-sensitive SMP, the smoothness assumption on the value-function imposed in Lim and Zhou (2005) needs not be satisfied. For a general action space a Peng\\'s type SMP is derived, specifying the necessary conditions for optimality. Two examples are carried out to illustrate the proposed risk-sensitive mean-field type SMP under linear stochastic dynamics with exponential quadratic cost function. Explicit solutions are given for both mean-field free and mean-field models.

N deposition as a threat to the World's protected areas under the Convention on Biological Diversity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bleeker, A.; Hicks, W.K.; Dentener, F.; Galloway, J.; Erisman, J.W.

2011-01-01

This paper combines the world's protected areas (PAs) under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), common classification systems of ecosystem conservation status, and current knowledge on ecosystem responses to nitrogen (N) deposition to determine areas most at risk. The results show that 40% (approx. 11% of total area) of PAs currently receive >10 kg N/ha/yr with projections for 2030 indicating that this situation is not expected to change. Furthermore, 950 PAs are projected to receive >30 kg N/ha/yr by 2030 (approx. twice the 2000 number), of which 62 (approx. 11,300 km 2 ) are also Biodiversity Hotspots and G200 ecoregions; with forest and grassland ecosystems in Asia particularly at risk. Many of these sites are known to be sensitive to N deposition effects, both in terms of biodiversity changes and ecosystem services they provide. Urgent assessment of high risk areas identified in this study is recommended to inform the conservation efforts of the CBD. - Highlights: → Significant areas of the Protected Areas Programme under the CBD will likely be under threat of high N deposition levels by the year 2030.→ Approx. 950 PAs are projected to receive N deposition levels of more than 30 kg N/ha/yr by 2030.→ 62 of these sites are also Biodiversity Hotspots and G200 ecoregions, where forest and grassland ecosystems in Asia will be particularly at risk.→ Many of these sites are known to be sensitive to N deposition effects, both in terms of biodiversity changes and ecosystem services they provide → Urgent assessment of high risk areas identified in this study is recommended to inform the conservation efforts of the CBD. - Significant areas of the UNEP Protected Areas Programme under the CBD receive high N deposition rates that are likely to increase in the future, especially in Asia, and may pose a significant threat to biodiversity.

Behavioral Control and Reward Sensitivity in Adolescents' Risk Taking Behavior: A Longitudinal TRAILS Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Peeters, Margot; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, Wilma

2017-01-01

Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this study we tested whether the imbalance between behavioral control and reward sensitivity underlies risk taking behavior in adolescence, using a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 715 adolescents, of which 66% revealed an increased risk for mental health problems. To assess behavioral control at age 11 we used both self-report (effortful control) as well as behavioral measures of cognitive control (i.e., working memory and response inhibition). Reward sensitivity was assessed with the Bangor Gambling Task. The main finding of this study was that effortful control at age 11 was the best predictor of risk taking behavior (alcohol and cannabis use) at age 16, particularly among adolescents who were more reward sensitive. Risk taking behavior in adolescents might be explained by relatively weak behavioral control functioning combined with high sensitivity for reward.

Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

2001-01-01

This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

RISKS, THREATS AND VULNERABILITIES IN THE COMPLEX DYNAMIC OF THE SYRIAN CONFLICT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raluca-Irina IONIȚĂ

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The regional conflict that takes place now in the middle east from Afghanistan, Iraq to Syria has proven to be incrementally complex and difficult to manage from a geo-political point of view. It is becoming harder to know who are the violent non-state actors and who is backing them, turning what was at first a civil war into a proxy war between the western countries on one side and Russia, pro al-assad forces and Iran. Also, Turkey who at once was considered to be an important ally to the US has now grown closer to Russian interests, bombing kurdish troops backed by the US. In this regard it is becoming obvious that there are a number of threats, risks, and vulnerabilities that arise in an unpredictable manner. In conclusion, this paper analyzes the main solutions that can be adopted in order to control and manage the complex dynamic that are unfolding in Syria.

Specifically altered brain responses to threat in generalized anxiety disorder relative to social anxiety disorder and panic disorder

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christine Buff

2016-01-01

Conclusion: The findings present the first evidence for GAD-specific neural correlates of hyper-responsive threat processing, possibly reflecting exaggerated threat sensitivity, maladaptive appraisal and attention-allocation processes.

Behavioral approach system sensitivity and risk taking interact to predict left-frontal EEG asymmetry.

Science.gov (United States)

Black, Chelsea L; Goldstein, Kim E; LaBelle, Denise R; Brown, Christopher W; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2014-09-01

The Behavioral Approach System (BAS) hypersensitivity theory of bipolar disorder (BD; Alloy & Abramson, 2010; Depue & Iacono, 1989) suggests that hyperreactivity in the BAS results in the extreme fluctuations of mood characteristic of BD. In addition to risk conferred by BAS hypersensitivity, cognitive and personality variables may play a role in determining risk. We evaluated relationships among BAS sensitivity, risk taking, and an electrophysiological correlate of approach motivation, relative left-frontal electroencephalography (EEG) asymmetry. BAS sensitivity moderated the relationship between risk taking and EEG asymmetry. More specifically, individuals who were high in BAS sensitivity showed left-frontal EEG asymmetry regardless of their level of risk-taking behavior. However, among individuals who were moderate in BAS sensitivity, risk taking was positively associated with asymmetry. These findings suggest that cognitive and personality correlates of bipolar risk may evidence unique contributions to a neural measure of trait-approach motivation. Clinical implications of these findings are discussed. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Computer security threats faced by small businesses in Australia

OpenAIRE

Hutchings, Alice

2012-01-01

In this paper, an overview is provided of computer security threats faced by small businesses. Having identified the threats, the implications for small business owners are described, along with countermeasures that can be adopted to prevent incidents from occurring. The results of the Australian Business Assessment of Computer User Security (ABACUS) survey, commissioned by the Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC), are drawn upon to identify key risks (Challice 2009; Richards 2009). Addi...

A knowledge-based approach to estimating the magnitude and spatial patterns of potential threats to soil biodiversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Orgiazzi, Alberto; Panagos, Panos; Yigini, Yusuf; Dunbar, Martha B; Gardi, Ciro; Montanarella, Luca; Ballabio, Cristiano

2016-03-01

Because of the increasing pressures exerted on soil, below-ground life is under threat. Knowledge-based rankings of potential threats to different components of soil biodiversity were developed in order to assess the spatial distribution of threats on a European scale. A list of 13 potential threats to soil biodiversity was proposed to experts with different backgrounds in order to assess the potential for three major components of soil biodiversity: soil microorganisms, fauna, and biological functions. This approach allowed us to obtain knowledge-based rankings of threats. These classifications formed the basis for the development of indices through an additive aggregation model that, along with ad-hoc proxies for each pressure, allowed us to preliminarily assess the spatial patterns of potential threats. Intensive exploitation was identified as the highest pressure. In contrast, the use of genetically modified organisms in agriculture was considered as the threat with least potential. The potential impact of climate change showed the highest uncertainty. Fourteen out of the 27 considered countries have more than 40% of their soils with moderate-high to high potential risk for all three components of soil biodiversity. Arable soils are the most exposed to pressures. Soils within the boreal biogeographic region showed the lowest risk potential. The majority of soils at risk are outside the boundaries of protected areas. First maps of risks to three components of soil biodiversity based on the current scientific knowledge were developed. Despite the intrinsic limits of knowledge-based assessments, a remarkable potential risk to soil biodiversity was observed. Guidelines to preliminarily identify and circumscribe soils potentially at risk are provided. This approach may be used in future research to assess threat at both local and global scale and identify areas of possible risk and, subsequently, design appropriate strategies for monitoring and protection of soil

Cyber Threat Assessment of Uplink and Commanding System for Mission Operation

Science.gov (United States)

Ko, Adans Y.; Tan, Kymie M. C.; Cilloniz-Bicchi, Ferner; Faris, Grant

2014-01-01

Most of today's Mission Operations Systems (MOS) rely on Ground Data System (GDS) segment to mitigate cyber security risks. Unfortunately, IT security design is done separately from the design of GDS' mission operational capabilities. This incoherent practice leaves many security vulnerabilities in the system without any notice. This paper describes a new way to system engineering MOS, to include cyber threat risk assessments throughout the MOS development cycle, without this, it is impossible to design a dependable and reliable MOS to meet today's rapid changing cyber threat environment.

Insulin-Sensitizers, Polycystic Ovary Syndrome and Gynaecological Cancer Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Lauretta, Rosa; Lanzolla, Giulia; Vici, Patrizia; Mariani, Luciano; Moretti, Costanzo

2016-01-01

Preclinical, early phase clinical trials and epidemiological evidence support the potential role of insulin-sensitizers in cancer prevention and treatment. Insulin-sensitizers improve the metabolic and hormonal profile in PCOS patients and may also act as anticancer agents, especially in cancers associated with hyperinsulinemia and oestrogen dependent cancers. Several lines of evidence support the protection against cancer exerted by dietary inositol, in particular inositol hexaphosphate. Metformin, thiazolidinediones, and myoinositol postreceptor signaling may exhibit direct inhibitory effects on cancer cell growth. AMPK, the main molecular target of metformin, is emerging as a target for cancer prevention and treatment. PCOS may be correlated to an increased risk for developing ovarian and endometrial cancer (up to threefold). Several studies have demonstrated an increase in mortality rate from ovarian cancer among overweight/obese PCOS women compared with normal weight women. Long-term use of metformin has been associated with lower rates of ovarian cancer. Considering the evidence supporting a higher risk of gynaecological cancer in PCOS women, we discuss the potential use of insulin-sensitizers as a potential tool for chemoprevention, hypothesizing a possible rationale through which insulin-sensitizers may inhibit tumourigenesis. PMID:27725832

24 CFR 9.131 - Direct threat.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... health or safety of others. (b) “Direct threat” means a significant risk to the health or safety of... provision of auxiliary aids or services. (c) In determining whether an individual poses a direct threat to the health or safety of others, the agency must make an individualized assessment, based on reasonable...

Migrants and emerging public health issues in a globalized world: threats, risks and challenges, an evidence-based framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Gushulak, Bd; Weekers, J; Macpherson, Dw

2009-01-01

International population mobility is an underlying factor in the emergence of public health threats and risks that must be managed globally. These risks are often related, but not limited, to transmissible pathogens. Mobile populations can link zones of disease emergence to lowprevalence or nonendemic areas through rapid or high-volume international movements, or both. Against this background of human movement, other global processes such as economics, trade, transportation, environment and climate change, as well as civil security influence the health impacts of disease emergence. Concurrently, global information systems, together with regulatory frameworks for disease surveillance and reporting, affect organizational and public awareness of events of potential public health significance. International regulations directed at disease mitigation and control have not kept pace with the growing challenges associated with the volume, speed, diversity, and disparity of modern patterns of human movement. The thesis that human population mobility is itself a major determinant of global public health is supported in this article by review of the published literature from the perspective of determinants of health (such as genetics/biology, behavior, environment, and socioeconomics), population-based disease prevalence differences, existing national and international health policies and regulations, as well as inter-regional shifts in population demographics and health outcomes. This paper highlights some of the emerging threats and risks to public health, identifies gaps in existing frameworks to manage health issues associated with migration, and suggests changes in approach to population mobility, globalization, and public health. The proposed integrated approach includes a broad spectrum of stakeholders ranging from individual health-care providers to policy makers and international organizations that are primarily involved in global health management, or are influenced

Nuclear Smuggling and Threats to Lithuanian Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murauskaitė Eglė

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The article explores threats related to illicit trafficking of radioactive materials and dual-use goods applicable in state level nuclear programs, actualizing the global trends for the Baltic region. The article points to Eastern Europe’s changing risk profile in this respect, as increasing penetration of Russian criminal groups inside Ukraine and the destabilized situations in neighboring countries create an environment where the risk of nuclear smuggling is on the rise. Criminal entities can be seen forming new bonds, with trafficking routes intersecting and zones of influence shifting - consequently, an unusual level of criminal involvement in nuclear smuggling is observed, alongside a geographic shift of smuggling patterns. In addition, states seeking materials and technologies for their military programs have taken a notable interest in this region as a way of circumventing international transit regulations. The article looks at the likely implications of these new nuclear smuggling trends for the security of the Baltic states. It suggests that Lithuania may soon be facing a relatively new threat, and one that it is ill-prepared to counter. The article discusses the risk factors and indicators to watch before that risk becomes reality, and offers ways for Lithuania to contribute to addressing these increasingly acute problems on a regional level.

Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security. Threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brauch, Hans Guenter [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Political and Social Sciences; UNU-EHS, Bonn (DE). College of Associated Scientists and Advisors (CASA); Oswald Spring, Ursula [National Univ. of Mexico, Cuernavaca (MX). Regional Multidisciplinary Research Centre (CRIM); Mesjasz, Czeslaw [Cracow Univ. of Exonomics (Poland). Faculty of Management; Grin, John [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Dept. of Political Science; Dutch Knowledge network for Systems Innovations and Transitions (KSI), Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kameri-Mbote, Patricia [Strathmore Univ., Nairobi (Kenya). Dept. of Law; International Environmental Law Research Centre, Nairobi (Kenya); Chourou, Bechir [Univ. of Tunis-Carthage, Hammam-Chatt (Tunisia); Dunay, Pal [Geneva Centre for Security Policy (Switzerland). International Training Course in Security Policy; Birkmann, Joern (eds.) [United Nations Univ. (UNU), Bonn (DE). Inst. for Environment and Human Security (EHS)

2011-07-01

This policy-focused Global Environmental and Human Security Handbook for the Anthropo-cene (GEHSHA) addresses new security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks posed by global environmental change and disasters. In 6 forewords, 5 preface essays 95 peer reviewed chapcountries analyse in 10 parts concepts of military and political hard security and economic, social, environmental soft security with a regional focus on the Near East, North and Sub-Sahara Africa and Asia and on hazards in urban centres. The major focus is on coping with global environmental change: climate change, desertification, water, food and health and with hazards and strategies on social vulnerability and resilience building and scientific, international, regional and national political strategies, policies and measures including early warning of conflicts and hazards. The book proposes a political geo-ecology and discusses a 'Fourth Green Revolution' for the Anthropocene era of earth history. (orig.)

Risk Communication Emergency Response Preparedness: Contextual Assessment of the Protective Action Decision Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Heath, Robert L; Lee, Jaesub; Palenchar, Michael J; Lemon, Laura L

2018-02-01

Studies are continuously performed to improve risk communication campaign designs to better prepare residents to act in the safest manner during an emergency. To that end, this article investigates the predictive ability of the protective action decision model (PADM), which links environmental and social cues, predecision processes (attention, exposure, and comprehension), and risk decision perceptions (threat, alternative protective actions, and stakeholder norms) with protective action decision making. This current quasi-longitudinal study of residents (N = 400 for each year) in a high-risk (chemical release) petrochemical manufacturing community investigated whether PADM core risk perceptions predict protective action decision making. Telephone survey data collected at four intervals (1995, 1998, 2002, 2012) reveal that perceptions of protective actions and stakeholder norms, but not of threat, currently predict protective action decision making (intention to shelter in place). Of significance, rather than threat perceptions, perception of Wally Wise Guy (a spokes-character who advocates shelter in place) correlates with perceptions of protective action, stakeholder norms, and protective action decision making. Wally's response-efficacy advice predicts residents' behavioral intentions to shelter in place, thereby offering contextually sensitive support and refinement for PADM. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The relative sensitivity of freshwater species to antimony(III): Implications for water quality guidelines and ecological risk assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Obiakor, Maximilian Obinna; Tighe, Matthew; Wang, Zhen; Ezeonyejiaku, Chigozie Damian; Pereg, Lily; Wilson, Susan C

2017-11-01

Antimony (Sb) is a pollutant in many jurisdictions, yet its threat to aquatic biota is unclear. Water quality guidelines (WQGs) for Sb are not well established and large uncertainty factors are commonly applied in derivation. We constructed freshwater species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for Sb(III) using available acute toxicity data sourced from temperate and tropical regional studies. A tiered ecological risk assessment (ERA) approach using risk quotients (RQs) was applied for characterisation of risks presented by Sb(III) concentrations measured in the freshwater environment. Multiple parametric models were fitted for each SSD, with the optimal model used to derive the 5% hazardous concentration (HC5), defined as protective of 95% of species, and the corresponding predicted no effect concentration (PNEC). The HC5 values for whole and temperate SSDs were estimated at 781 and 976 μg L -1 Sb(III), respectively, while the PNECs for both datasets were 156 and 195 μg L -1 Sb(III), respectively. Due to limited tropical data, a temperate-to-tropic extrapolation factor of 10 was used to estimate an interim PNEC for tropical regions of 20 μg L -1 Sb(III). Based on published freshwater Sb(III) concentration values across a range of locations, potential ecological risks posed by Sb(III) in some freshwater systems studied would be classified as medium to high risk, but the majority of locations sampled would fall into the low ecological risk category. Our results facilitate the understanding of toxic effects of Sb(III) to freshwater species but also demonstrate that data for Sb ERA are extremely limited.

Comparison of risk sensitivity to human errors in the Oconee and LaSalle PRAs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, S.; Higgins, J.

1991-01-01

This paper describes the comparative analyses of plant risk sensitivity to human errors in the Oconee and La Salle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRAs). These analyses were performed to determine the reasons for the observed differences in the sensitivity of core melt frequency (CMF) to changes in human error probabilities (HEPs). Plant-specific design features, PRA methods, and the level of detail and assumptions in the human error modeling were evaluated to assess their influence risk estimates and sensitivities

Spatial Pattern Determination of Biodiversity Threats at Landscape Level (Case Study: Golestan Province)

OpenAIRE

R. Mirzaei; A. Esmaili-Sari; M. R. Hemami; H. R. Rezaei

2015-01-01

Mapping spatial patterns of potential biodiversity threats is one of the important steps for effective conservation planning and activities. To determine the spatial patterns of threats in Golestan province, 12 criteria in four main groups including structural (fractal coefficient of perimeter, circularity ratio of area, average slope), compositional aspects of biodiversity (presence of species at risk), non-biological threats (distance to city, distance to village, distance to road, distance...

An alternative approach to risk rank chemicals on the threat they pose to the aquatic environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Andrew C; Donnachie, Rachel L; Sumpter, John P; Jürgens, Monika D; Moeckel, Claudia; Pereira, M Gloria

2017-12-01

This work presents a new and unbiased method of risk ranking chemicals based on the threat they pose to the aquatic environment. The study ranked 12 metals, 23 pesticides, 11 other persistent organic pollutants (POPs), 13 pharmaceuticals, 10 surfactants and similar compounds and 2 nanoparticles (total of 71) of concern against one another by comparing their median UK river water and median ecotoxicity effect concentrations. To complement this, by giving an assessment on potential wildlife impacts, risk ranking was also carried out by comparing the lowest 10th percentile of the effects data with the highest 90th percentile of the exposure data. In other words, risk was pared down to just toxicity versus exposure. Further modifications included incorporating bioconcentration factors, using only recent water measurements and excluding either lethal or sub-lethal effects. The top ten chemicals, based on the medians, which emerged as having the highest risk to organisms in UK surface waters using all the ecotoxicity data were copper, aluminium, zinc, ethinylestradiol (EE2), linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS), triclosan, manganese, iron, methomyl and chlorpyrifos. By way of contrast, using current UK environmental quality standards as the comparator to median UK river water concentrations would have selected 6 different chemicals in the top ten. This approach revealed big differences in relative risk; for example, zinc presented a million times greater risk then metoprolol and LAS 550 times greater risk than nanosilver. With the exception of EE2, most pharmaceuticals were ranked as having a relatively low risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A study of insider threat in nuclear security analysis using game theoretic modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Kyo-Nam; Yim, Man-Sung; Schneider, Erich

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Implications of an insider threat in nuclear security were quantitatively analyzed. • The analysis was based on of a hypothetical nuclear facility and using game theoretic approach. • Through a sensitivity analysis, vulnerable paths and important parameters were identified. • The methodology can be utilized to prioritize the implementation of PPS improvements in a facility. - Abstract: An Insider poses a greater threat to the security system of a nuclear power plant (NPP) because of their ability to take advantage of their access rights and knowledge of a facility, to bypass dedicated security measures. If an insider colludes with an external terrorist group, this poses a key threat to the safety-security interface. However, despite the importance of the insider threat, few studies have been conducted to quantitatively analyze an insider threat. This research examines the quantitative framework for investigating the implications of insider threat, taking a novel approach. Conventional tools assessing the security threats to nuclear facilities focus on a limited number of attack pathways. These are defined by the modeler and are based on simple probabilistic calculations. They do not capture the adversary’s intentions nor do they account for their response and adaptation to defensive investments. As an alternative way of performing physical protection analysis, this research explores the use of game theoretic modeling of Physical Protection Systems (PPS) analysis by incorporating the implications of an insider threat, to address the issues of intentionality and interactions. The game theoretic approach has the advantage of modeling an intelligent adversary and insider who has an intention to do harm and complete knowledge of the facility. Through a quantitative assessment and sensitivity analysis, vulnerable but important parameters in this model were identified. This made it possible to determine which insider threat is more important. The

NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CYBER THREATS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ALEJANDRO AMIGO TOSSI

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Cyber threat is one of the main risks for security in developing countries, as well in States on the development path, such as ours. This phenomena is a challenge to national security, that needs the adoption of a paramount approach in its analysis, that have to consider all the aspects that had transformed the actors and malevolent actions in this environment in one of the most important challenges to the security of governmental as well as private organizations all over the world. States, hackers, cyber activists, and cyber criminals have been main actors in several situations that had shaped a new dimension for international and national security. The purpose of this article is to propose topics that could be included in the national assessment of cyber threats to the Chilean national security, based upon several conceptual definitions, cyber attacks already executed to state and military organization’s in Chile, and lastly, considerations over cyber threats included in the National Security Strategies of some western powers.

Self-Models and Relationship Threat

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Máire B. Ford

2015-07-01

Full Text Available This study investigated a key claim of risk regulation theory, namely, that psychological internalizing of a relationship threat will serve as a mediator of the link between self-models (self-esteem and attachment anxiety and relationship responses (moving closer to a partner vs. distancing from a partner. Participants (N = 101 received feedback that threatened their current romantic relationship (or no feedback and then completed measures of internal–external focus, relationship closeness–distancing, and acceptance–rejection of the feedback. Results showed that participants with negative self-models responded to the relationship threat by becoming more internally focused and by distancing from their partners, whereas those with positive self-models became more externally focused and moved closer to their partners. Mediation analyses indicated that the link between self-models and relationship closeness–distancing was partially explained by internal focus.

Perceived Threat, Risk Perception, and Efficacy Beliefs Related to SARS and Other (Emerging) Infectious Diseases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

de Zwart, Onno; Veldhuijzen, Irene; Elam, Gillian

2009-01-01

PURPOSE: To study the levels of perceived threat, perceived severity, perceived vulnerability, response efficacy, and self-efficacy for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and eight other diseases in five European and three Asian countries. METHOD: A computer-assisted phone survey was conduc......PURPOSE: To study the levels of perceived threat, perceived severity, perceived vulnerability, response efficacy, and self-efficacy for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and eight other diseases in five European and three Asian countries. METHOD: A computer-assisted phone survey...... was conducted among 3,436 respondents. The questionnaire focused on perceived threat, vulnerability, severity, response efficacy, and self-efficacy related to SARS and eight other diseases. RESULTS: Perceived threat of SARS in case of an outbreak in the country was higher than that of other diseases. Perceived...... vulnerability of SARS was at an intermediate level and perceived severity was high compared to other diseases. Perceived threat for SARS varied between countries in Europe and Asia with a higher perceived severity of SARS in Europe and a higher perceived vulnerability in Asia. Response efficacy and self...

Meeting the challenge of interacting threats in freshwater ecosystems: A call to scientists and managers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura S. Craig

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Human activities create threats that have consequences for freshwater ecosystems and, in most watersheds, observed ecological responses are the result of complex interactions among multiple threats and their associated ecological alterations. Here we discuss the value of considering multiple threats in research and management, offer suggestions for filling knowledge gaps, and provide guidance for addressing the urgent management challenges posed by multiple threats in freshwater ecosystems. There is a growing literature assessing responses to multiple alterations, and we build off this background to identify three areas that require greater attention: linking observed alterations to threats, understanding when and where threats overlap, and choosing metrics that best quantify the effects of multiple threats. Advancing science in these areas will help us understand existing ecosystem conditions and predict future risk from multiple threats. Because addressing the complex issues and novel ecosystems that arise from the interaction of multiple threats in freshwater ecosystems represents a significant management challenge, and the risks of management failure include loss of biodiversity, ecological goods, and ecosystem services, we also identify actions that could improve decision-making and management outcomes. These actions include drawing insights from management of individual threats, using threat attributes (e.g., causes and spatio-temporal dynamics to identify suitable management approaches, testing management strategies that are likely to be successful despite uncertainties about the nature of interactions among threats, avoiding unintended consequences, and maximizing conservation benefits. We also acknowledge the broadly applicable challenges of decision-making within a socio-political and economic framework, and suggest that multidisciplinary teams will be needed to innovate solutions to meet the current and future challenge of interacting

Meeting the challenge of interacting threats in freshwater ecosystems: A call to scientists and managers

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, Laura S.; Olden, Julian D.; Arthington, Angela; Entrekin, Sally; Hawkins, Charles P.; Kelly, John J.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Maitland, Bryan M.; Rosi, Emma J.; Roy, Allison; Strayer, David L.; Tank, Jennifer L.; West, Amie O.; Wooten, Matthew S.

2017-01-01

Human activities create threats that have consequences for freshwater ecosystems and, in most watersheds, observed ecological responses are the result of complex interactions among multiple threats and their associated ecological alterations. Here we discuss the value of considering multiple threats in research and management, offer suggestions for filling knowledge gaps, and provide guidance for addressing the urgent management challenges posed by multiple threats in freshwater ecosystems. There is a growing literature assessing responses to multiple alterations, and we build off this background to identify three areas that require greater attention: linking observed alterations to threats, understanding when and where threats overlap, and choosing metrics that best quantify the effects of multiple threats. Advancing science in these areas will help us understand existing ecosystem conditions and predict future risk from multiple threats. Because addressing the complex issues and novel ecosystems that arise from the interaction of multiple threats in freshwater ecosystems represents a significant management challenge, and the risks of management failure include loss of biodiversity, ecological goods, and ecosystem services, we also identify actions that could improve decision-making and management outcomes. These actions include drawing insights from management of individual threats, using threat attributes (e.g., causes and spatio-temporal dynamics) to identify suitable management approaches, testing management strategies that are likely to be successful despite uncertainties about the nature of interactions among threats, avoiding unintended consequences, and maximizing conservation benefits. We also acknowledge the broadly applicable challenges of decision-making within a socio-political and economic framework, and suggest that multidisciplinary teams will be needed to innovate solutions to meet the current and future challenge of interacting threats in

Privacy Threats and Practical Solutions for Genetic Risk Tests

OpenAIRE

Barman, Ludovic; El Graini, Mohammed-Taha; Raisaro, Jean Louis; Ayday, Erman; Hubaux, Jean-Pierre

2015-01-01

Recently, several solutions have been proposed to address the complex challenge of protecting individuals’ genetic data during personalized medicine tests. In this short paper, we analyze different privacy threats and propose simple countermeasures for the generic architecture mainly used in the literature. In particular, we present and evaluate a new practical solution against a critical attack of a malicious medical center trying to actively infer raw genetic information of patients.

Spatial Pattern Determination of Biodiversity Threats at Landscape Level (Case Study: Golestan Province

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Mirzaei

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Mapping spatial patterns of potential biodiversity threats is one of the important steps for effective conservation planning and activities. To determine the spatial patterns of threats in Golestan province, 12 criteria in four main groups including structural (fractal coefficient of perimeter, circularity ratio of area, average slope, compositional aspects of biodiversity (presence of species at risk, non-biological threats (distance to city, distance to village, distance to road, distance to infrastructure, distance to agricultural land, soil pollution, risk of fire and isolation (Nearest Neighbor Index were used. These data layers were digitized in GIS environment and were weighted through Analytical Hierarchy Process. A weighted linear combination was then used to map the spatial pattern of biodiversity threats in the province. Compositional aspect (0.59, non-biological threats (0.23, isolation (0.11, and structural aspect (0.07 were relatively weighted in the order of importance. Central parts of the province and patches in the northern and southern parts were recognized to be more exposed to biodiversity threats. The central parts of the province were mostly threatened by urban, industrial, road and agricultural development, whereas the northern and southern parts were recognized as areas of conservation importance having a variety of threatened birds.

Dual-Use Threat Assessment Framework - An Attempt to Quantify the Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephen, E. R.; Lavigne, J. J.; Colton, B.

2007-01-01

Advances in the biosciences over the past decade have been rapid and transformative. While these advances offer significant benefit to society, they also provide very significant challenges in terms of security. Concerns over misuse and/or accidental use/release (dual use) although not new, are now being viewed through the security lens. There is a wide-spread view that public or private sector scientists, supported through investments by pharmaceutical, environmental and agricultural interests working in the fields that comprise biotechnology, posses the ability to assess the implications of their own work and work within a regime of self-control that is for the most part self-governing (codes of practice). On the other end of the spectrum are those that would codify or legislative control. All this is being done in the absence of a mechanism for quantifying the threat. This presentation will discuss the development of an assessment framework that addresses both actual and potential threats. The framework was developed based on available intelligence and other open source information along with interviews with those persons familiar with the concept of dual use and the multiple, sometimes competing agendas of a variety of interest groups. The framework will help to bring some clarity to the discussion and at the same time, help to inform those that are positioned to respond to the threat. (author)

Risk-sensitivity and the mean-variance trade-off: decision making in sensorimotor control.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagengast, Arne J; Braun, Daniel A; Wolpert, Daniel M

2011-08-07

Numerous psychophysical studies suggest that the sensorimotor system chooses actions that optimize the average cost associated with a movement. Recently, however, violations of this hypothesis have been reported in line with economic theories of decision-making that not only consider the mean payoff, but are also sensitive to risk, that is the variability of the payoff. Here, we examine the hypothesis that risk-sensitivity in sensorimotor control arises as a mean-variance trade-off in movement costs. We designed a motor task in which participants could choose between a sure motor action that resulted in a fixed amount of effort and a risky motor action that resulted in a variable amount of effort that could be either lower or higher than the fixed effort. By changing the mean effort of the risky action while experimentally fixing its variance, we determined indifference points at which participants chose equiprobably between the sure, fixed amount of effort option and the risky, variable effort option. Depending on whether participants accepted a variable effort with a mean that was higher, lower or equal to the fixed effort, they could be classified as risk-seeking, risk-averse or risk-neutral. Most subjects were risk-sensitive in our task consistent with a mean-variance trade-off in effort, thereby, underlining the importance of risk-sensitivity in computational models of sensorimotor control.

Stereotype Threat and Gender Differences in Chemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Sunny, Cijy Elizabeth; Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Clark, Lauren; Marchand, Gwen

2017-01-01

Stereotype threat theory (STT) offers one explanation for achievement differences in math and science for both women and minority students. Specifically, STT posits that the perceived risk of confirming a negative stereotype about an individual's identity group acts as a psychological burden that negatively impacts performance. This study examined…

The role of warning behaviors in threat assessment: an exploration and suggested typology.

Science.gov (United States)

Reid Meloy, J; Hoffmann, Jens; Guldimann, Angela; James, David

2012-01-01

The concept of warning behaviors offers an additional perspective in threat assessment. Warning behaviors are acts which constitute evidence of increasing or accelerating risk. They are acute, dynamic, and particularly toxic changes in patterns of behavior which may aid in structuring a professional's judgment that an individual of concern now poses a threat - whether the actual target has been identified or not. They require an operational response. A typology of eight warning behaviors for assessing the threat of intended violence is proposed: pathway, fixation, identification, novel aggression, energy burst, leakage, directly communicated threat, and last resort warning behaviors. Previous research on risk factors associated with such warning behaviors is reviewed, and examples of each warning behavior from various intended violence cases are presented, including public figure assassination, adolescent and adult mass murder, corporate celebrity stalking, and both domestic and foreign acts of terrorism. Practical applications and future research into warning behaviors are suggested. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Exciting fear in adolescence: Does pubertal development alter threat processing?

OpenAIRE

Spielberg, JM; Olino, TM; Forbes, EE; Dahl, RE

2014-01-01

Adolescent development encompasses an ostensible paradox in threat processing. Risk taking increases dramatically after the onset of puberty, contributing to a 200% increase in mortality. Yet, pubertal maturation is associated with increased reactivity in threat-avoidance systems. In the first part of this paper we propose a heuristic model of adolescent affective development that may help to reconcile aspects of this paradox, which focuses on hypothesized pubertal increases in the capacity t...

Improving Visual Threat Detection: Research to Validate the Threat Detection Skills Trainer

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-01

26 Threat Detection and Mitigation Strategies...quicker when identifying threats in relevant locations. This task utilized the Flicker paradigm (Rensink, O’Regan, & Clark, 1997; Scholl, 2000...the meaning and implication of threats, why cues were relevant, strategies used to detect and mitigate threats, and challenges when attempting to

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses in aging risk-based prioritizations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassan, M.; Uryas'ev, S.; Vesely, W.E.

1993-01-01

Aging risk evaluations of nuclear power plants using Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs) involve assessments of the impact of aging structures, systems, and components (SSCs) on plant core damage frequency (CDF). These assessments can be used to prioritize the contributors to aging risk reflecting the relative risk potential of the SSCs. Aging prioritizations are important for identifying the SSCs contributing most to plant risk and can provide a systematic basis on which aging risk control and management strategies for a plant can be developed. However, these prioritizations are subject to variabilities arising from uncertainties in data, and/or from various modeling assumptions. The objective of this paper is to present an evaluation of the sensitivity of aging prioritizations of active components to uncertainties in aging risk quantifications. Approaches for robust prioritization of SSCs also are presented which are less susceptible to the uncertainties

Does stereotype threat affect women in academic medicine?

Science.gov (United States)

Burgess, Diana Jill; Joseph, Anne; van Ryn, Michelle; Carnes, Molly

2012-04-01

Multiple complex factors contribute to the slow pace of women's advancement into leadership positions in academic medicine. In this article, the authors propose that stereotype threat--under which individuals who are members of a group characterized by negative stereotypes in a particular domain perform below their actual abilities in that domain when group membership is emphasized--may play an important role in the underrepresentation of women in leadership positions in academic medicine. Research to objectively assess the impact of stereotype threat for women in academic medicine is feasible and necessary to confirm this hypothesis. Still, a number of conditions present in the academic medicine community today have been shown to trigger stereotype threat in other settings, and stereotype threat fits with existing research on gender in academic medicine. In the meantime, academic health centers should implement relatively simple measures supported by experimental evidence from other settings to reduce the risk of stereotype threat, including (1) introducing the concept of stereotype threat to the academic medicine community, (2) engaging all stakeholders, male and female, to promote identity safety by enacting and making faculty aware of policies to monitor potential instances of discrimination, and training faculty to provide performance feedback that is free of gender bias, (3) counteracting the effects of sex segregation at academic health centers by increasing exposure to successful female leaders, (4) reducing gender stereotype priming by avoiding stereotypically male criteria for promotion, grants, and awards, and (5) building leadership efficacy among female physicians and scientists.

Exciting fear in adolescence: Does pubertal development alter threat processing?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffrey M. Spielberg

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Adolescent development encompasses an ostensible paradox in threat processing. Risk taking increases dramatically after the onset of puberty, contributing to a 200% increase in mortality. Yet, pubertal maturation is associated with increased reactivity in threat-avoidance systems. In the first part of this paper we propose a heuristic model of adolescent affective development that may help to reconcile aspects of this paradox, which focuses on hypothesized pubertal increases in the capacity to experience (some fear-evoking experiences as an exciting thrill. In the second part of this paper, we test key features of this model by examining brain activation to threat cues in a longitudinal study that disentangled pubertal and age effects. Pubertal increases in testosterone predicted increased activation to threat cues, not only in regions associated with threat avoidance (i.e., amygdala, but also regions associated with reward pursuit (i.e., nucleus accumbens. These findings are consistent with our hypothesis that puberty is associated with a maturational shift toward more complex processing of threat cues—which may contribute to adolescent tendencies to explore and enjoy some types of risky experiences.

Exciting fear in adolescence: does pubertal development alter threat processing?

Science.gov (United States)

Spielberg, Jeffrey M; Olino, Thomas M; Forbes, Erika E; Dahl, Ronald E

2014-04-01

Adolescent development encompasses an ostensible paradox in threat processing. Risk taking increases dramatically after the onset of puberty, contributing to a 200% increase in mortality. Yet, pubertal maturation is associated with increased reactivity in threat-avoidance systems. In the first part of this paper we propose a heuristic model of adolescent affective development that may help to reconcile aspects of this paradox, which focuses on hypothesized pubertal increases in the capacity to experience (some) fear-evoking experiences as an exciting thrill. In the second part of this paper, we test key features of this model by examining brain activation to threat cues in a longitudinal study that disentangled pubertal and age effects. Pubertal increases in testosterone predicted increased activation to threat cues, not only in regions associated with threat avoidance (i.e., amygdala), but also regions associated with reward pursuit (i.e., nucleus accumbens). These findings are consistent with our hypothesis that puberty is associated with a maturational shift toward more complex processing of threat cues--which may contribute to adolescent tendencies to explore and enjoy some types of risky experiences. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Cyber Threat and Vulnerability Analysis of the U.S. Electric Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glenn, Colleen [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Mission Support Center; Sterbentz, Dane [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Mission Support Center; Wright, Aaron [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Mission Support Center

2016-12-20

With utilities in the U.S. and around the world increasingly moving toward smart grid technology and other upgrades with inherent cyber vulnerabilities, correlative threats from malicious cyber attacks on the North American electric grid continue to grow in frequency and sophistication. The potential for malicious actors to access and adversely affect physical electricity assets of U.S. electricity generation, transmission, or distribution systems via cyber means is a primary concern for utilities contributing to the bulk electric system. This paper seeks to illustrate the current cyber-physical landscape of the U.S. electric sector in the context of its vulnerabilities to cyber attacks, the likelihood of cyber attacks, and the impacts cyber events and threat actors can achieve on the power grid. In addition, this paper highlights utility perspectives, perceived challenges, and requests for assistance in addressing cyber threats to the electric sector. There have been no reported targeted cyber attacks carried out against utilities in the U.S. that have resulted in permanent or long term damage to power system operations thus far, yet electric utilities throughout the U.S. have seen a steady rise in cyber and physical security related events that continue to raise concern. Asset owners and operators understand that the effects of a coordinated cyber and physical attack on a utility’s operations would threaten electric system reliability–and potentially result in large scale power outages. Utilities are routinely faced with new challenges for dealing with these cyber threats to the grid and consequently maintain a set of best practices to keep systems secure and up to date. Among the greatest challenges is a lack of knowledge or strategy to mitigate new risks that emerge as a result of an exponential rise in complexity of modern control systems. This paper compiles an open-source analysis of cyber threats and risks to the electric grid, utility best practices

Assessment of terrorist threats to the Canadian energy sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shull, A. [Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON (Canada). Norman Paterson School of International Affairs]|[Ottawa Univ., ON (Canada). Faculty of Law

2006-03-15

A critical terrorist threat assessment of Canadian energy systems was presented, as well as an analysis of integrated continental systems. Recent responses to heightened threat levels on the part of the Canadian government have ranged from information sharing to emergency preparedness and disaster mitigation strategies. This paper examined threats that the energy sector has traditionally encountered and argued that response capabilities do not match current threats posed by terrorism. The potential of a terrorist attack on the Canadian energy infrastructure is significant and has been referred to as a possible target by terrorist organizations. Actions taken by the Canadian government in response to heightened threat levels were examined. A review of energy industry security measures included outlines of: the natural gas industry, the electric sector, and nuclear reactors and waste. It was noted that not all elements of the critical energy infrastructure share the same level of risk. Recommendations included increased information sharing between government agencies and the private sector; resiliency standards in densely populated areas; and insulating the energy grid against a cascading blackout through the use of DC rather than AC lines. 59 refs.

Assessment of terrorist threats to the Canadian energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shull, A.

2006-01-01

A critical terrorist threat assessment of Canadian energy systems was presented, as well as an analysis of integrated continental systems. Recent responses to heightened threat levels on the part of the Canadian government have ranged from information sharing to emergency preparedness and disaster mitigation strategies. This paper examined threats that the energy sector has traditionally encountered and argued that response capabilities do not match current threats posed by terrorism. The potential of a terrorist attack on the Canadian energy infrastructure is significant and has been referred to as a possible target by terrorist organizations. Actions taken by the Canadian government in response to heightened threat levels were examined. A review of energy industry security measures included outlines of: the natural gas industry, the electric sector, and nuclear reactors and waste. It was noted that not all elements of the critical energy infrastructure share the same level of risk. Recommendations included increased information sharing between government agencies and the private sector; resiliency standards in densely populated areas; and insulating the energy grid against a cascading blackout through the use of DC rather than AC lines. 59 refs

Helping Parents Cope with Suicide Threats: An Approach Based on Nonviolent Resistance.

Science.gov (United States)

Omer, Haim; Dolberger, Dan Isaac

2015-09-01

Parent training in nonviolent resistance was adapted to deal with situations of suicide threat by children, adolescents, and young adults. The approach aims at reducing the risk potential and the mutual distress surrounding the threat-interaction. Parent training in nonviolent resistance has been shown to help parents move from helplessness to presence, from isolation to connectedness, from submission to resistance, from escalation to self-control, and from mutual distancing and hostility to care and support. Those emphases can be crucial for the diminution of suicide risk. Parents show good ability to implement the approach and report gains on various areas over and beyond the reduction in suicide threat. A particular advantage is that the method can be used also in cases where the young person threatening suicide is not willing to cooperate. © 2015 Family Process Institute.

REASONS AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE WORLD AGRICULTURAL MARKET BAD PRICE DYNAMICS THREATS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Grodzievskaya

2013-11-01

Full Text Available This article is about main threats of the bad price dynamics on the world agricultural market for agriculture producers. Scientific point of view on the risks is considered. Mostly theoretical point of view allows understanding how deep and wide scientists could research this problem. Author considers reasons of this menaces and ways out, how to avoid or estimate the rate of undesirable consequences for agriculture producers and agriculture price conjuncture. Researcher distinguishes several main reasons of the agriculture threats among them: production, finance, inflation and conjuncture fluctuation. In this article readers can find new ideas for governmental way to operate risky and low informative level situations in agricultural sphere. Researchers can use structural approach of the risk identification due to the scheme of risks realization reasons. Also few formulas provided for cybernetic way to research this problem. Scientist proposes ways for neutralization threats, among them are: adaptation, insurance, spends minimization, etc. Author analyzes Ukrainian agricultural tendencies in the last decades and draws a conclusion for socio-economic trend in witch modern world economy moves.

Terrorism: the threat of a radiological device

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kingshott, B.F.

2005-01-01

Full text: This paper will discuss terrorism from the perspective of a terrorist organization building and detonating a 'dirty bomb' with a radiological component. The paper will discuss how such devices are made and how security of radiological material world wide will minimize the risk of such devices being used. It will discuss the threat assessments against nuclear waste processing and storage sites, threats to nuclear plants and other sites and the adequacy of current security. It will also discuss the phenomenon of suicide attacks by the bomb carriers and the role of the media in informing and educating the general public of the consequences should such a device be detonated. (author)

Best Practices and Controls for Mitigating Insider Threats

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-08

Every Organization Should Know Twitter #CERTinsiderthreat © 2013 Carnegie Mellon University MERIT CORP Man-in-the-Middle (MITM) Proxy SSL / TLS ...Handshake SSL / TLS Handshake Managing The Insider Threat: What Every Organization Should Know Twitter #CERTinsiderthreat © 2013 Carnegie Mellon...to upload attachments present an opportunity for sensitive data to leave the organization. •  Communications that are secured with SSL encryption

Threat-related amygdala activity is associated with peripheral CRP concentrations in men but not women

Science.gov (United States)

Swartz, Johnna R.; Prather, Aric A.; Hariri, Ahmad R.

2017-01-01

Increased levels of peripheral inflammatory markers, including C-Reactive Protein (CRP), are associated with increased risk for depression, anxiety, and suicidality. The brain mechanisms that may underlie the association between peripheral inflammation and internalizing problems remain to be determined. The present study examines associations between peripheral CRP concentrations and threat-related amygdala activity, a neural biomarker of depression and anxiety risk, in a sample of 172 young adult undergraduate students. Participants underwent functional MRI scanning while performing an emotional face matching task to obtain a measure of threat-related amygdala activity to angry and fearful faces; CRP concentrations were assayed from dried blood spots. Results indicated a significant interaction between CRP and sex: in men, but not women, higher CRP was associated with higher threat-related amygdala activity. These results add to the literature finding associations between systemic levels of inflammation and brain function and suggest that threat-related amygdala activity may serve as a potential pathway through which heightened chronic inflammation may increase risk for mood and anxiety problems. PMID:28183031

Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Raquel A; Araújo, Miguel B; Burgess, Neil D; Foden, Wendy B; Gutsche, Alexander; Rahbek, Carsten; Cabeza, Mar

2014-01-01

Aim Climate change can lead to decreased climatic suitability within species' distributions, increased fragmentation of climatically suitable space, and/or emergence of newly suitable areas outside present distributions. Each of these extrinsic threats and opportunities potentially interacts with specific intrinsic traits of species, yet this specificity is seldom considered in risk assessments. We present an analytical framework for examining projections of climate change-induced threats and opportunities with reference to traits that are likely to mediate species' responses, and illustrate the applicability of the framework. Location Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We applied the framework to 195 sub-Saharan African amphibians with both available bioclimatic envelope model projections for the mid-21st century and trait data. Excluded were 500 narrow-ranging species mainly from montane areas. For each of projected losses, increased fragmentation and gains of climate space, we selected potential response-mediating traits and examined the spatial overlap with vulnerability due to these traits. We examined the overlap for all species, and individually for groups of species with different combinations of threats and opportunities. Results In the Congo Basin and arid Southern Africa, projected losses for wide-ranging amphibians were compounded by sensitivity to climatic variation, and expected gains were precluded by poor dispersal ability. The spatial overlap between exposure and vulnerability was more pronounced for species projected to have their climate space contracting in situ or shifting to distant geographical areas. Our results exclude the potential exposure of narrow-ranging species to shrinking climates in the African tropical mountains. Main conclusions We illustrate the application of a framework combining spatial projections of climate change exposure with traits that are likely to mediate species' responses. Although the proposed framework carries several

Defending Against Advanced Persistent Threats Using Game-Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Rass, Stefan; König, Sandra; Schauer, Stefan

2017-01-01

Advanced persistent threats (APT) combine a variety of different attack forms ranging from social engineering to technical exploits. The diversity and usual stealthiness of APT turns them into a central problem of contemporary practical system security, since information on attacks, the current system status or the attacker's incentives is often vague, uncertain and in many cases even unavailable. Game theory is a natural approach to model the conflict between the attacker and the defender, and this work investigates a generalized class of matrix games as a risk mitigation tool for an advanced persistent threat (APT) defense. Unlike standard game and decision theory, our model is tailored to capture and handle the full uncertainty that is immanent to APTs, such as disagreement among qualitative expert risk assessments, unknown adversarial incentives and uncertainty about the current system state (in terms of how deeply the attacker may have penetrated into the system's protective shells already). Practically, game-theoretic APT models can be derived straightforwardly from topological vulnerability analysis, together with risk assessments as they are done in common risk management standards like the ISO 31000 family. Theoretically, these models come with different properties than classical game theoretic models, whose technical solution presented in this work may be of independent interest.

Threats from urban expansion, agricultural transformation and forest loss on global conservation priority areas

Science.gov (United States)

Moilanen, Atte; Di Minin, Enrico

2017-01-01

Including threats in spatial conservation prioritization helps identify areas for conservation actions where biodiversity is at imminent risk of extinction. At the global level, an important limitation when identifying spatial priorities for conservation actions is the lack of information on the spatial distribution of threats. Here, we identify spatial conservation priorities under three prominent threats to biodiversity (residential and commercial development, agricultural expansion, and forest loss), which are primary drivers of habitat loss and threaten the persistence of the highest number of species in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, and for which spatial data is available. We first explore how global priority areas for the conservation of vertebrate (mammals, birds, and amphibians) species coded in the Red List as vulnerable to each threat differ spatially. We then identify spatial conservation priorities for all species vulnerable to all threats. Finally, we identify the potentially most threatened areas by overlapping the identified priority areas for conservation with maps for each threat. We repeat the same with four other well-known global conservation priority area schemes, namely Key Biodiversity Areas, Biodiversity Hotspots, the global Protected Area Network, and Wilderness Areas. We find that residential and commercial development directly threatens only about 4% of the global top 17% priority areas for species vulnerable under this threat. However, 50% of the high priority areas for species vulnerable to forest loss overlap with areas that have already experienced some forest loss. Agricultural expansion overlapped with ~20% of high priority areas. Biodiversity Hotspots had the greatest proportion of their total area under direct threat from all threats, while expansion of low intensity agriculture was found to pose an imminent threat to Wilderness Areas under future agricultural expansion. Our results

Evolution of the perception of the threats to security in Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael Grasa

1993-07-01

Full Text Available security was internal, in other words, subversion and opposition to the regime. Public opinion, however, revealed that characteristics very different to those in the context of the western block existed, such as a void perception of the soviet threat as opposed to a marked antiamericanism for its support of the regime.This legacy of threats weighed heavily during the transition together with the existence of a cleavage between the armed forces, the political actors and public opinion regarding the real necessity of intergration into NATO. In the eighties there exists a clear differentiation between the threats perceived by public opinion and those considered by the political elites. With regard to the former,serious threats to Spain do not exist. only certain concerns when the subject of security took on importance in the field of public opinion, such as during the referendum campaign over NATO in 1986 which was mixed with the scarce perception of the soviet threat, theconstant danger represented by the United States and the slight rise in those who believed in the Moroccan threat, and the impact of the Gulf War in 1991 and the consequent increase of the threat represented by the arab countries. For the political actors, the mainthreat contemplated was the protection of territorial integrity on a stage closer to the western Mediterranean instead of a global threat to the western block something only considered at a theoretical level with the strategic concept of Spanish defence within the framework of participation in NATO.From 1992 onwards with the Defence Directive, the threat concept is replaced by that of risk and which recovers the importance given over to North Africa. It is argued in the belief that security is indivisible and must be shared not only with the European members. A greater convergence is also initiated in the nineties between the political actors and public opinion with respect to considering what are the risks in a global

Identifying and Mitigating Insider Threats

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Probst, Christian W.

2011-01-01

Organisations face many threats that coarsely can be separated in inside threats and outside threats. Threats from insiders are especially hard to counter since insiders have special knowledge and privileges. Therefore, malicious insider actions are hard to distinguish from benign actions. After ...... discussing new definitions of insiders and insider threats, this article gives an overview of how to mitigate insider threats and discusses conflicting goals when dealing with insider threats....

Examining perceived stereotype threat among overweight/obese adults using a multi-threat framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Carels, Robert A; Domoff, Sarah E; Burmeister, Jacob M; Koball, Afton M; Hinman, Nova G; Davis, Alan K; Wagner Oehlhof, Marissa; Leroy, Michelle; Bannon, Erin; Hoffmann, Debra A

2013-01-01

The Multi-Threat Framework accounts for potentially different forms of stereotype threat that differ in target (i.e., the individual or the group) and source (i.e., the self or others). This investigation examined how these different forms of perceived stereotype threat were related to concepts, such as group identity, stereotype endorsement, stigma consciousness, etc., among overweight and obese individuals. 216 adults completed an online survey. Participants' mean age was 23.6 (SD 10.1; range 18-64) years and mean BMI was 31.6 (SD 7.5) kg/m². Participants reported a history of feeling threatened by stereotypes related to weight. When reflecting on past experiences of perceived stereotype threat, participants reported greater levels of self/own stereotype threat compared to group stereotype threat. Level of stereotype threat was related to a number of personal characteristics (i.e., sex, BMI) and individual factors (i.e., group identity, stigma consciousness, fear of fat). Individuals who are overweight report a history of being threatened by negative stereotypes. The findings support the Multi-Threat Framework for stereotype threat based on body weight. Overweight individuals' susceptibility to stereotype threat may vary systematically depending on several factors. Future research should examine weight-related stereotypes' impact on cognitive and behavioral outcomes. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg

Examining Perceived Stereotype Threat among Overweight/Obese Adults Using a Multi-Threat Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert A. Carels

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Objective: The Multi-Threat Framework accounts for potentially different forms of stereotype threat that differ in target (i.e., the individual or the group and source (i.e., the self or others. This investigation examined how these different forms of perceived stereotype threat were related to concepts, such as group identity, stereotype endorsement, stigma consciousness, etc., among overweight and obese individuals. Method: 216 adults completed an online survey. Participants' mean age was 23.6 (SD 10.1; range 18-64 years and mean BMI was 31.6 (SD 7.5 kg/m2. Results: Participants reported a history of feeling threatened by stereotypes related to weight. When reflecting on past experiences of perceived stereotype threat, participants reported greater levels of self/own stereotype threat compared to group stereotype threat. Level of stereotype threat was related to a number of personal characteristics (i.e., sex, BMI and individual factors (i.e., group identity, stigma consciousness, fear of fat. Conclusion: Individuals who are overweight report a history of being threatened by negative stereotypes. The findings support the Multi-Threat Framework for stereotype threat based on body weight. Overweight individuals' susceptibility to stereotype threat may vary systematically depending on several factors. Future research should examine weight-related stereotypes' impact on cognitive and behavioral outcomes.

Threats to safety during sedation outside of the operating room and the death of Michael Jackson.

Science.gov (United States)

Webster, Craig S; Mason, Keira P; Shafer, Steven L

2016-03-01

From an understanding of human psychology and the reliability of high-technology systems, this review considers critical threats to the safety of patients undergoing sedation outside of the operating room, and will stratify these threats along what we define as the 'Patient Risk Continuum'. We then consider interventions suitable for addressing identified risks. The technology, organization and delivery of healthcare continue to become more complex, highlighting the importance of maintaining the safety of patients. Sedation outside of the operating room is known to be associated with higher rates of adverse events. However, a number of recent safety initiatives have shown benefit in improving patient safety. The following threats to patients undergoing sedation, in increasing order of risk, are discussed: equipment and environmental factors, known patient risks, poor team performance, combinatorial problems and egregious violations. To address these threats, we discuss a number of approaches consistent with the systems approach to safety, namely: encouraging functions, forcing functions, cognitive safety nets, information sharing, recovery strategies and regulatory change. Demonstrating improvement with any safety initiative relies critically on quality data collected on the problem area in question.

Cyber threats and responses in the banking sector

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Strauss

2017-10-01

Full Text Available stream_source_info Strauss_CSIR2017.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 5207 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Strauss_CSIR2017.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 CSIR Conference Cyber... Threats and Responses in the banking sector Paul Strauss Chief Information Risk Officer October 2017 CSIR / Standard Bank / page 2 Cyber Risk Drivers 4% of www content Academic Information Medical Records Legal Documents Scientific...

Does Stereotype Threat Affect Women in Academic Medicine?

Science.gov (United States)

Burgess, Diana Jill; Joseph, Anne; van Ryn, Michelle; Carnes, Molly

2012-01-01

Multiple complex factors contribute to the slow pace of women’s advancement into leadership positions in academic medicine. In this article, the authors propose that stereotype threat--under which individuals who are members of a group characterized by negative stereotypes in a particular domain perform below their actual abilities in that domain when group membership is emphasized--may play an important role in the underrepresentation of women in leadership positions in academic medicine. Research to objectively assess the impact of stereotype threat for women in academic medicine is feasible and necessary to confirm this hypothesis. Still, a number of conditions present in the academic medicine community today have been shown to trigger stereotype threat in other settings, and stereotype threat fits with existing research on gender in academic medicine. In the meantime, academic health centers should implement relatively simple measures supported by experimental evidence from other settings to reduce the risk of stereotype threat, including: (1) introducing the concept of stereotype threat to the academic medicine community; (2) engaging all stakeholders, male and female, to promote identity safety by enacting and making faculty aware of policies to monitor potential instances of discrimination, and training faculty to provide performance feedback that is free of gender bias; (3) counteracting the effects of sex segregation at academic health centers by increasing exposure to successful female leaders; (4) reducing gender stereotype priming by avoiding stereotypically male criteria for promotion, grants, and awards; and (5) building leadership efficacy among female physicians and scientists. PMID:22361794

Occupation, exposure to chemicals, sensitizing agents, and risk of multiple myeloma in Sweden.

Science.gov (United States)

Lope, Virginia; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Aragonés, Nuria; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Gustavsson, Per; Plato, Nils; Zock, Jan-Paul; Pollán, Marina

2008-11-01

This study sought to identify occupations with high incidence of multiple myeloma and to investigate possible excess risk associated with occupational exposure to chemicals and sensitizing agents in Sweden. A historical cohort of 2,992,166 workers was followed up (1971--1989) through record linkage with the National Cancer and Death Registries. For each job category, age and period standardized incidence ratios and age and period adjusted relative risks of multiple myeloma were calculated using Poisson models. Exposure to chemicals and to sensitizing agents was also assessed using two job-exposure matrices. Men and women were analyzed separately. During follow-up, 3,127 and 1,282 myelomas were diagnosed in men and women, respectively. In men, excess risk was detected among working proprietors, agricultural, horticultural and forestry enterprisers, bakers and pastry cooks, dental technicians, stone cutters/carvers, and prison/reformatory officials. In women, this excess was observed among attendants in psychiatric care, metal workers, bakers and pastry cooks, and paper/paperboard product workers. Workers, particularly bakers and pastry cooks, exposed to high molecular weight sensitizing agents registered an excess risk of over 40% across the sexes. Occasional, although intense, exposure to pesticides was also associated with risk of myeloma in our cohort. Our study supports a possible etiologic role for farming and use of pesticides in myeloma risk. The high incidence found in both female and male bakers and pastry cooks has not been described previously. Further research is required to assess the influence of high molecular weight sensitizing agents on risk of multiple myeloma.

Analyzing Cyber-Physical Threats on Robotic Platforms.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad Yousef, Khalil M; AlMajali, Anas; Ghalyon, Salah Abu; Dweik, Waleed; Mohd, Bassam J

2018-05-21

Robots are increasingly involved in our daily lives. Fundamental to robots are the communication link (or stream) and the applications that connect the robots to their clients or users. Such communication link and applications are usually supported through client/server network connection. This networking system is amenable of being attacked and vulnerable to the security threats. Ensuring security and privacy for robotic platforms is thus critical, as failures and attacks could have devastating consequences. In this paper, we examine several cyber-physical security threats that are unique to the robotic platforms; specifically the communication link and the applications. Threats target integrity, availability and confidential security requirements of the robotic platforms, which use MobileEyes/arnlServer client/server applications. A robot attack tool (RAT) was developed to perform specific security attacks. An impact-oriented approach was adopted to analyze the assessment results of the attacks. Tests and experiments of attacks were conducted in simulation environment and physically on the robot. The simulation environment was based on MobileSim; a software tool for simulating, debugging and experimenting on MobileRobots/ActivMedia platforms and their environments. The robot platform PeopleBot TM was used for physical experiments. The analysis and testing results show that certain attacks were successful at breaching the robot security. Integrity attacks modified commands and manipulated the robot behavior. Availability attacks were able to cause Denial-of-Service (DoS) and the robot was not responsive to MobileEyes commands. Integrity and availability attacks caused sensitive information on the robot to be hijacked. To mitigate security threats, we provide possible mitigation techniques and suggestions to raise awareness of threats on the robotic platforms, especially when the robots are involved in critical missions or applications.

Analyzing Cyber-Physical Threats on Robotic Platforms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khalil M. Ahmad Yousef

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Robots are increasingly involved in our daily lives. Fundamental to robots are the communication link (or stream and the applications that connect the robots to their clients or users. Such communication link and applications are usually supported through client/server network connection. This networking system is amenable of being attacked and vulnerable to the security threats. Ensuring security and privacy for robotic platforms is thus critical, as failures and attacks could have devastating consequences. In this paper, we examine several cyber-physical security threats that are unique to the robotic platforms; specifically the communication link and the applications. Threats target integrity, availability and confidential security requirements of the robotic platforms, which use MobileEyes/arnlServer client/server applications. A robot attack tool (RAT was developed to perform specific security attacks. An impact-oriented approach was adopted to analyze the assessment results of the attacks. Tests and experiments of attacks were conducted in simulation environment and physically on the robot. The simulation environment was based on MobileSim; a software tool for simulating, debugging and experimenting on MobileRobots/ActivMedia platforms and their environments. The robot platform PeopleBotTM was used for physical experiments. The analysis and testing results show that certain attacks were successful at breaching the robot security. Integrity attacks modified commands and manipulated the robot behavior. Availability attacks were able to cause Denial-of-Service (DoS and the robot was not responsive to MobileEyes commands. Integrity and availability attacks caused sensitive information on the robot to be hijacked. To mitigate security threats, we provide possible mitigation techniques and suggestions to raise awareness of threats on the robotic platforms, especially when the robots are involved in critical missions or applications.

The Dilemmas of Risk-Sensitive Development on a Small Volcanic Island

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily Wilkinson

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In the Small Islands Developing State (SIDS of St Vincent and the Grenadines in the Caribbean, the most destructive disasters in terms of human casualties have been the multiple eruptions of La Soufrière volcano situated in the north of St Vincent. Despite this major threat, people continue to live close to the volcano and national development plans do not include risk reduction measures for volcanic hazards. This paper examines the development options in volcanic SIDS and presents a number of conundrums for disaster risk management on the island of St Vincent. Improvements in monitoring of volcanic hazards and ongoing programmes to enhance communications systems and encourage community preparedness planning have increased awareness of the risks associated with volcanic hazards, yet this has not translated into more risk-informed development planning decisions. The current physical development plan in fact promotes investment in infrastructure in settlements located within the zone designated very high-hazard. However, this is not an anomaly or an irrational decision: severe space constraints in SIDS, as well as other historical social and economic factors, limit growth and options for low-risk development. Greater attention needs to be placed on developing measures to reduce risk, particularly from low-intensity hazards like ash, limiting where possible exposure to volcanic hazards and building the resilience of communities living in high-risk areas. This requires planning for both short- and longer-term impacts from renewed activity. Volcanic SIDS face multiple hazards because of their geography and topography, so development plans should identify these interconnected risks and options for their reduction, alongside measures aimed at improving personal preparedness plans so communities can learn to live with risk.

Are all interventions created equal? A multi-threat approach to tailoring stereotype threat interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Shapiro, Jenessa R; Williams, Amy M; Hambarchyan, Mariam

2013-02-01

To date, stereotype threat interventions have been considered interchangeable. Across 4 experiments, the present research demonstrates that stereotype threat interventions need to be tailored to the specific form of experienced stereotype threat to be effective. The Multi-Threat Framework (Shapiro & Neuberg, 2007) distinguishes between group-as-target stereotype threats-concerns that a stereotype-relevant performance will reflect poorly on the abilities of one's group-and self-as-target stereotype threats-concerns that a stereotype-relevant performance will reflect poorly on one's own abilities. The present experiments explored Black college students' performance on diagnostic intelligence tests (Experiments 1 and 3) and women's interest (Experiment 2) and performance (Experiment 4) in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM). Across the 4 experiments, participants were randomly assigned to experience either a group-as-target or self-as-target stereotype threat. Experiments 1 and 2 revealed that role model interventions were successful at protecting only against group-as-target stereotype threats, and Experiments 3 and 4 revealed that self-affirmation interventions were successful at protecting only against self-as-target stereotype threats. The present research provides an experimental test of the Multi-Threat Framework across different negatively stereotyped groups (Black students, female students), different negatively stereotyped domains (general intelligence, STEM), and different outcomes (test performance, career interest). This research suggests that interventions should address the range of possible stereotype threats to effectively protect individuals against these threats. Through an appreciation of the distinct forms of stereotype threats and the ways in which interventions work to reduce them, this research aims to facilitate a more complete understanding of stereotype threat. (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Cyber Conflicts as a New Global Threat

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Kosenkov

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, an attempt is made to analyze the potential threats and consequences of cyber conflicts and, in particular, the risks of a global cyber conflict. The material is based on a comprehensive analysis of the nature of cyber conflict and its elements from both technical and societal points of view. The approach used in the paper considers the societal component as an essential part of cyber conflicts, allowing basics of cyber conflicts often disregarded by researchers and the public to be highlighted. Finally, the conclusion offers an opportunity to consider cyber conflict as the most advanced form of modern warfare, which imposes the most serious threat and whose effect could be comparable to weapons of mass destruction.

Information Technology Security and Human Risk: Exploring Factors of Unintended Insider Threat and Organizational Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Eleanor Elizabeth

2014-01-01

That organizations face threats to the security of their computer systems from external hackers is well documented. Intentional or unintentional behaviors by organizational insiders can severely compromise computer security as well. Less is known, however, about the nature of this threat from insiders. The purpose of this study was to bridge this…

The threat of nuclear terrorism: from analysis to precautionary measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, M.

2003-01-01

Facing the nuclear terrorism risk, this document analyzes the nature of the threat of nuclear terrorism, the risk of attack on nuclear installations, the limited protection of nuclear installations against aircraft crashes, the case of nuclear reprocessing plants, the case of nuclear transport and proposes measures which should be taken without endangering the foundations of democracy. (A.L.B.)

The threat of nuclear terrorism: from analysis to precautionary measures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schneider, M

2003-07-01

Facing the nuclear terrorism risk, this document analyzes the nature of the threat of nuclear terrorism, the risk of attack on nuclear installations, the limited protection of nuclear installations against aircraft crashes, the case of nuclear reprocessing plants, the case of nuclear transport and proposes measures which should be taken without endangering the foundations of democracy. (A.L.B.)

Influence of interaction of environmental risk factors and sensitization in young asthmatic children.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindfors, A; van Hage-Hamsten, M; Rietz, H; Wickman, M; Nordvall, S L

1999-10-01

The increasing prevalence of asthma and allergy in many countries demands evaluation of potential risk factors to improve the possibility of prevention. We studied the association between exposure to cat and dog allergen and allergic sensitization in young children with asthma and interactions with potential environmental risk factors. One hundred eighty-nine young children with asthma were evaluated. IgE antibodies to cat and dog were analyzed. Questionnaires were filled in focusing on exposure to cats and dogs, environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), and signs of home dampness as indicated by window pane condensation (WPC) during the first years of life. House dust was analyzed for content of cat (Fel d 1) and dog (Can f 1) allergen. There was a strong association between the degree of reported exposure to cat and dog and the concentration of the respective allergens in floor dust. A dose-response relationship was found between cat exposure, measured as either reported degree of cat exposure or cat allergen levels in dust, and sensitization both to cat and dog. No such relationship was found between exposure and sensitization to dog. WPC increased the risk for sensitization to cat (odds ratio = 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.2-5.8), whereas ETS strongly tended to do so both to cat and dog. Interaction was found between exposure to ETS, WPC, and high levels of cat allergen (>8 microg/g dust). The presence of all 3 risk factors revealed a multiplicative interaction with a high risk of sensitization to cat (odds ratio = 42.0, 95% confidence interval 3.7-472.8). Keeping cats indoors may be a health hazard for infants and young children at risk for development of asthma, particularly when they live in a damp house and their parents smoke.

Conventional and New Ways of Governing Forest Threats: A Study of Stakeholder Coherence in Sweden

Science.gov (United States)

Eriksson, Louise

2018-01-01

Based on a framework for analyzing stakeholder coherence horizontally and vertically, the present study examined the governance of forest threats in Sweden. Opinions of forest risk governance in stakeholder groups with and without a connection to private forestry were compared ( n = 2496) and the opinions were analyzed in relation to current governance practices. More specifically, forest threat appraisals, trust in the Swedish Forest Agency (SFA), and the acceptability of forest risk policy measures directed at private forest owners were assessed. Results revealed an overall coherence between different stakeholders in this context. However, the groups differed in, for example, the acceptability of the hypothetical regulative measure aiming to reduce damages threatening the forest long-term (e.g., climate change). Furthermore, an extensive use of advice for a fee may challenge particularly the internal, but also the external, legitimacy of forest risk governance. The forest owner stakeholder group showed lower threat appraisals when evaluating threat to one's own forest rather than to the Swedish forest, except regarding browsing by animals. Regulations were not disapproved of in any of the stakeholder groups, although the forest owner group generally displayed higher acceptability of encouraging measures compared to the general public. Trust in the SFA was furthermore confirmed as an important driver of policy acceptability, and higher threat appraisals of novel threats, such as climate change and fire, resulted in a higher acceptability of measures less central or new in this context. The value of analyzing stakeholder coherence for natural resource management and governance is discussed.

Conventional and New Ways of Governing Forest Threats: A Study of Stakeholder Coherence in Sweden.

Science.gov (United States)

Eriksson, Louise

2018-01-01

Based on a framework for analyzing stakeholder coherence horizontally and vertically, the present study examined the governance of forest threats in Sweden. Opinions of forest risk governance in stakeholder groups with and without a connection to private forestry were compared (n = 2496) and the opinions were analyzed in relation to current governance practices. More specifically, forest threat appraisals, trust in the Swedish Forest Agency (SFA), and the acceptability of forest risk policy measures directed at private forest owners were assessed. Results revealed an overall coherence between different stakeholders in this context. However, the groups differed in, for example, the acceptability of the hypothetical regulative measure aiming to reduce damages threatening the forest long-term (e.g., climate change). Furthermore, an extensive use of advice for a fee may challenge particularly the internal, but also the external, legitimacy of forest risk governance. The forest owner stakeholder group showed lower threat appraisals when evaluating threat to one's own forest rather than to the Swedish forest, except regarding browsing by animals. Regulations were not disapproved of in any of the stakeholder groups, although the forest owner group generally displayed higher acceptability of encouraging measures compared to the general public. Trust in the SFA was furthermore confirmed as an important driver of policy acceptability, and higher threat appraisals of novel threats, such as climate change and fire, resulted in a higher acceptability of measures less central or new in this context. The value of analyzing stakeholder coherence for natural resource management and governance is discussed.

Psychosocial Modeling of Insider Threat Risk Based on Behavioral and Word Use Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Noonan, Christine F.; Brown, Christopher R.; Ferryman, Thomas A.

2013-10-01

In many insider crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they can be assessed. A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee’s behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. A complementary Personality Factor modeling approach was developed based on analysis to derive relevant personality characteristics from word use. Several implementations of the psychosocial model were evaluated by comparing their agreement with judgments of human resources and management professionals; the personality factor modeling approach was examined using email samples. If implemented in an operational setting, these models should be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment to identify employees who pose a greater insider threat.

Species sensitivity distributions in a context of practical applications for risk-based decisions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Posthuma, L.; Traas, T.P.; Roelofs, W.; Winterse, A.; Zwart, D. de; Meent, D. van de [RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

2003-07-01

Different biological species clearly show different sensitivities to toxic compounds present in their habitat. The absence of differences in sensitivity would entail an 'all nothing' response, with all species responding similarly to pollution. Given the sensitivity variation, however, some species show adverse effects, and others flourish. In this sense, variation is 'music for ecotoxicologists'. But it also is a nuisance: ecotoxicologists need to handle the vast diversity of sensitivities in Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). This contribution addresses a pragmatic, versatile, statistics-based concept to address species sensitivity differences, and shows options for application. In the 1980s, ecotoxicologists have coined the term 'Species Sensitivity Distributions' (SSDs) for the statistical descriptions that can be applied to address sensitivity variation. An SSD is a Probability Density Function (usually bell-shaped) or Cumulative Distribution Function (sigmoid), that relates the environmental concentration (x) to 'risk' (y). Since their original description and use, the concept was further developed, criticised, and tailored to various policy or assessment problems. (orig.)

The role of perceived threat during emergency department cardiac evaluation and the age-posttraumatic stress disorder link.

Science.gov (United States)

Meli, Laura; Kautz, Marin; Julian, Jacob; Edmondson, Donald; Sumner, Jennifer A

2018-06-01

Evaluation for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) can trigger posttraumatic stress symptoms (PSS). Research suggests that younger, versus older, individuals may be at elevated risk for PSS after ACS evaluation. It has been proposed that younger individuals may be at greater risk because they perceive the suspected ACS event as more threatening than their older counterparts; however, this has yet to be tested. We examined whether perceived threat during ACS evaluation mediated the association between age and PSS after ACS evaluation in an observational cohort study of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with suspected ACS. Demographics and perceived threat were assessed in the ED. PSS were measured upon inpatient transfer or by phone 3 days later. The analytic sample comprised 871 adult participants. Multiple linear regression was used to examine (1) associations of age and perceived threat with PSS and (2) whether perceived threat mediated the association. Bootstrapping with percentile-based confidence intervals (CIs) was used to test the indirect effect. Each year of age was associated with lower PSS (b = - 0.12, p age was associated with lower perceived threat during ACS evaluation (b = - 0.05, p age differences in PSS development risk and the potential impact of age on threat perceptions may help inform ED treatment.

Rejection Sensitivity, Perceived Power, and HIV Risk in the Relationships of Low-Income Urban Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Berenson, Kathy R; Paprocki, Christine; Thomas Fishman, Marget; Bhushan, Devika; El-Bassel, Nabila; Downey, Geraldine

2015-01-01

The psychological processes associated with HIV infection in long-term relationships differ from those operative in casual sexual encounters, and relatively little research has considered the aspects of personality applicable in the ongoing heterosexual relationships in which women are at greatest risk. Sensitivity to rejection has been linked with efforts to prevent rejection at a cost to the self and, therefore, may be relevant to the health risks that many women incur in relationships. We examined the association of rejection sensitivity with women's sexual risk behavior in a sample of women at heightened risk for HIV exposure. Women in long-term heterosexual relationships (N = 159) were recruited for study participation in the hospital emergency room serving a low-income neighborhood in New York City, in 2001-2003. Rejection sensitivity and known HIV risk factors were assessed using verbally administered questionnaires. Rejection sensitivity was associated with lower perceived relationship power and, in turn, more frequent unprotected sex with a partner perceived to be at risk for HIV. These results held when controlling for other HIV risk factors including partner violence, economic dependence, and substance use. Understanding the association of rejection concerns with lower perceived personal power in relationships may be important for HIV prevention.

Status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), 2016

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Michael C.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Martin, Julien; Deutsch, Charles J.; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I.; Mahon, Gary L.

2017-04-11

Trichechus manatus (West Indian manatee), especially T. m. latirostris, the Florida subspecies, has been the focus of conservation efforts and extensive research since its listing under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. To determine the status of, and severity of threats to, the Florida manatee, a comprehensive revision and update of the manatee Core Biological Model was completed and used to perform a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee. The probability of the Florida manatee population falling below 500 adults on either the Gulf or East coast within the next 100 years was estimated to be 0.42 percent. This risk of quasi-extinction is low because the estimated adult survival rates are high, the current population size is greater than 2,500 on each coast, and the estimated carrying capacity for manatees is much larger than the current abundance estimates in all four regions of Florida. Three threats contribute in roughly equal measures to the risk of quasi-extinction: watercraft-related mortality, red-tide mortality, and loss of warm-water habitat. Only an increase in watercraft-related mortality has the potential to substantially increase the risk of quasi-extinction at the statewide or coastal level. Expected losses of warm-water habitat are likely to cause a major change in the distribution of the population from the regions where manatees rely heavily on power plant effluents for warmth in winter (Southwest and Atlantic regions) to the regions where manatees primarily use natural springs in winter (Northwest and Upper St. Johns regions). The chances are nearly 50 percent that manatee populations in the Southwest and Atlantic regions will decrease from their 2011 levels by at least 30 percent over the next century.A large number of scenarios were examined to explore the possible effects of potential emerging threats, and in most of them, the risk of quasi-extinction at the coastal scale within 100 years did not rise above 1 percent. The four

When sexual threat cues shape attitudes toward immigrants: The role of insecurity and benevolent sexism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oriane eSarrasin

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Drawing on psychological and political science research on individuals’ sensitivity to threat cues, the present study examines reactions to political posters that depict male immigrants as a sexual danger. We expect anti-immigrant attitudes to be more strongly predicted by feelings of insecurity or representations of men and women as strong and fragile, when individuals are exposed to sexual threat cues than when they are not. Results from two online experiments conducted in Switzerland and Germany largely confirmed these assumptions. Comparing two anti-immigrant posters (general and non-sexual threat vs. sexual threat, Experiment 1 (n = 142 showed that feelings of insecurity were related to an increased support for expelling immigrants from the host country in both cases. However, only in the sexual threat cues condition and among female participants, were perceptions of women as fragile—as measured with benevolent sexism items—related to support for expelling immigrants. Further distinguishing between different forms of violence threat cues, Experiment 2 (n = 181 showed that collective feelings of insecurity were most strongly related to support for expelling immigrants when a male immigrant was presented as a violent criminal. In contrast, benevolent sexist beliefs were related to anti-immigrant stances only when participants were exposed to a depiction of a male immigrant as a rapist. In both cases attitudes were polarized: On the one hand, representations of immigrants as criminals provoked reactance reactions—that is, more positive attitudes—among participants scoring low in insecurity feelings or benevolent sexism. On the other hand, those scoring high in these dimensions expressed slightly more negative attitudes. Overall, by applying social psychological concepts to the study of anti-immigrant political campaigning, the present study demonstrated that individuals are sensitive to specific threat cues in posters.

When sexual threat cues shape attitudes toward immigrants: the role of insecurity and benevolent sexism.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarrasin, Oriane; Fasel, Nicole; Green, Eva G T; Helbling, Marc

2015-01-01

Drawing on psychological and political science research on individuals' sensitivity to threat cues, the present study examines reactions to political posters that depict male immigrants as a sexual danger. We expect anti-immigrant attitudes to be more strongly predicted by feelings of insecurity or representations of men and women as strong and fragile when individuals are exposed to sexual threat cues than when they are not. Results from two online experiments conducted in Switzerland and Germany largely confirmed these assumptions. Comparing two anti-immigrant posters (general and non-sexual threat vs. sexual threat), Experiment 1 (n = 142) showed that feelings of insecurity were related to an increased support for expelling immigrants from the host country in both cases. However, only in the sexual threat cues condition and among female participants, were perceptions of women as fragile-as measured with benevolent sexism items-related to support for expelling immigrants. Further distinguishing between different forms of violence threat cues, Experiment 2 (n = 181) showed that collective feelings of insecurity were most strongly related to support for expelling immigrants when a male immigrant was presented as a violent criminal. In contrast, benevolent sexist beliefs were related to anti-immigrant stances only when participants were exposed to a depiction of a male immigrant as a rapist. In both cases attitudes were polarized: on the one hand, representations of immigrants as criminals provoked reactance reactions-that is, more positive attitudes-among participants scoring low in insecurity feelings or benevolent sexism. On the other hand, those scoring high in these dimensions expressed slightly more negative attitudes. Overall, by applying social psychological concepts to the study of anti-immigrant political campaigning, the present study demonstrated that individuals are sensitive to specific threat cues in posters.

Advanced digital I ampersand C systems in nuclear power plants: Risk- sensitivities to environmental stressors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassan, M.; Vesely, W.E.

1996-01-01

Microprocessor-based advanced digital systems are being used for upgrading analog instrumentation and control (I ampersand C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States. A concern with using such advanced systems for safety-related applications in NPPs is the limited experience with this equipment in these environments. In this study, we investigate the risk effects of environmental stressors by quantifying the plant's risk-sensitivities to them. The risk- sensitivities are changes in plant risk caused by the stressors, and are quantified by estimating their effects on I ampersand C failure occurrences and the consequent increase in risk in terms of core damage frequency (CDF). We used available data, including military and NPP operating experience, on the effects of environmental stressors on the reliability of digital I ampersand C equipment. The methods developed are applied to determine and compare risk-sensitivities to temperature, humidity, vibration, EMI (electromagnetic interference) from lightning and smoke as stressors in an example plant using a PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). Uncertainties in the estimates of the stressor effects on the equipment's reliability are expressed in terms of ranges for risk-sensitivities. The results show that environmental stressors potentially can cause a significant increase in I ampersand C contributions to the CDF. Further, considerable variations can be expected in some stressor effects, depending on where the equipment is located

Risk communication: climate change as a human-health threat, a survey of public perceptions in Malta.

Science.gov (United States)

DeBono, Roberto; Vincenti, Karen; Calleja, Neville

2012-02-01

Scientific evidence shows that climate change is very likely the product of human behaviour and lifestyle. The effects of climate change on human health are diverse in nature and range from direct effects due to extreme weather events such as heat waves, floods and storms, to indirect effects such as those caused by water and food shortages. A telephone survey was conducted between January and February 2009, on a stratified representative random sample of the Maltese population over the age of 18 years (N = 310,819). Five hundred and forty-three individuals successfully participated in the survey giving a response rate of 92.7%. The respondent sample was very similar to the target population by gender (P = 0.977), age (P = 0.767) and district (P = 0.812). The results of the study demonstrate a very strong relationship between the perception of climate change as a threat to health and well-being, support for climate change mitigation policy and a willingness to implement measures to address climate change. The findings of this study show that the perception that climate change may claim lives, cause disease, reduce the standard of living and worsen water shortages, may be the strongest driver behind support for climate change mitigation policy and a willingness to act. It is recommended that, in order to gain more public support, climate change campaigns and risk communication strategies should frame climate change as a threat to human health and general well-being.

The concept of ego threat in social and personality psychology: is ego threat a viable scientific construct?

Science.gov (United States)

Leary, Mark R; Terry, Meredith L; Batts Allen, Ashley; Tate, Eleanor B

2009-08-01

Although widely invoked as an explanation for psychological phenomena, ego threat has been conceptualized and induced in a variety of ways. Most contemporary research conceptualizes ego threat as a threat to a person's self-image or self-esteem, but experimental operationalizations of ego threat usually confound threats to self-esteem with threats to public image or decreased control over negative events, leading to an inability to distinguish the effects of threats to people's personal egos from threats to public image or threats to feelings of control. This article reviews research on ego threat, discusses experimental manipulations that confound ego threat with other processes, and makes recommendations regarding the use of ego threat as a construct in personality and social psychology.

Threat Prioritization Process for the Czech Security Strategy Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milos Balaban

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This article offers systematic view of a process of identification of security threats and, subsequently, their use in the making of strategic documents, notably the Security Strategy of the Czech Republic. It is not the aim of the authors to name or define such threats, but to present the process itself. It is paramount to any credible security strategy that it deals with the threat identification in the most precise fashion. The authors take reservations against the “catalogue” approach and claim the processes of prioritization and categorization to be essential for any policies derived from the security strategy, especially in times of economic need. It is also the 2011 final paper of the project “Trends, Risks, and Scenarios of the Security Developments in the World, Europe, and the Czech Republic – Impacts on the Policy and Security System of the Czech Republic” (TRS / VG20102013009.

[Health threats and health system crises. An approach to early warning and response. 2008 SESPAS Report].

Science.gov (United States)

Simón Soria, Fernando; Guillén Enríquez, Francisco Javier

2008-04-01

The world is changing more and faster than ever before. New diseases are coming to light each year, controlled diseases are reemerging as potential threats, and natural or man-made disasters are increasingly affecting human health. The "International Health Regulations (2005)" reflect the changes in the response of public health to this new situation. Surveillance of specific diseases and predefined control measures have been replaced by surveillance of public health events of international concern and control measures adapted to each situation. The public health events of international interest are characterized by their seriousness, predictability, the risk of international spread and potential for travel or trade restrictions. The development of the European Early Warning and Response System in 1998 and the creation of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control in 2005 demonstrate political commitment in Europe, with early detection of and response to public health threats. However, timely risk evaluation and response at a national level requires improved data digitalization and accessibility, automatic notification processes, data analysis and dissemination of information, the combination of information from multiple sources and adaptation of public health services. The autonomous regions in Spain are initiating this adaptation process, but interoperability between systems and the development of guidelines for a coordinated response should be steered by the National Interregional Health Council and coordinated by the Ministry of Health. Efficient early warning systems of health threats that allow for a timely response and reduce uncertainty about information would help to minimize the risk of public health crises. The profile of public health threats is nonspecific. Early detection of threats requires access to information from multiple sources and efficient risk assessment. Key factors for improving the response to public health threats are the

Information Security Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Peltier, Thomas R

2010-01-01

Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

Risk-Sensitive Control of Pure Jump Process on Countable Space with Near Monotone Cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suresh Kumar, K.; Pal, Chandan

2013-01-01

In this article, we study risk-sensitive control problem with controlled continuous time pure jump process on a countable space as state dynamics. We prove multiplicative dynamic programming principle, elliptic and parabolic Harnack’s inequalities. Using the multiplicative dynamic programing principle and the Harnack’s inequalities, we prove the existence and a characterization of optimal risk-sensitive control under the near monotone condition

Cumulative childhood interpersonal trauma is associated with reduced cortical differentiation between threat and non-threat faces in posttraumatic stress disorder adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Denise A; Bryant, Richard A; Gatt, Justine M; Harris, Anthony Wf

2018-03-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder and childhood trauma frequently co-occur. Both are associated with abnormal neural responses to salient emotion stimuli. As childhood trauma is a risk factor for posttraumatic stress disorder, differentiating between their neurophysiological effects is necessary to elucidate the neural pathways by which childhood trauma exposure contributes to increased posttraumatic stress disorder risks. Face-specific N170 evoked response potentials for backward-masked (non-conscious) and conscious threat (fear, angry) and non-threat (happy) faces were measured in 77 adults (18-64 years old, 64% women, 78% right-handed) symptomatic for posttraumatic stress disorder. Differences in N170 peak amplitudes for fear-versus-happy and angry-versus-happy faces at bilateral temporo-occipital (T5, T6) sites were computed. The effect of cumulative exposure to childhood interpersonal trauma, other childhood trauma, adult trauma, depression and posttraumatic stress disorder symptom severity on the N170 response was assessed using hierarchical multiple regression analyses. T5 N170 peak amplitudes for non-conscious fear-versus-happy faces were inversely related to cumulative childhood interpersonal trauma after accounting for socio-demographic, clinical symptom and other trauma factors. Posttraumatic stress disorder Avoidance was positively associated with N170 peak amplitudes for non-conscious fear-versus-happy faces, primarily due to reduced N170 responsivity to happy faces. Childhood interpersonal trauma exposure is associated with reduced discrimination between fear and happy faces, while avoidance symptom severity is associated with dampened responsivity to automatically processed happy faces in posttraumatic stress disorder adults. Results are discussed in terms of the likely contributions of impaired threat discrimination and deficient reward processing during neural processing of salient emotion stimuli, to increased risks of posttraumatic stress disorder

Analyzing Cyber-Physical Threats on Robotic Platforms †

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

Robots are increasingly involved in our daily lives. Fundamental to robots are the communication link (or stream) and the applications that connect the robots to their clients or users. Such communication link and applications are usually supported through client/server network connection. This networking system is amenable of being attacked and vulnerable to the security threats. Ensuring security and privacy for robotic platforms is thus critical, as failures and attacks could have devastating consequences. In this paper, we examine several cyber-physical security threats that are unique to the robotic platforms; specifically the communication link and the applications. Threats target integrity, availability and confidential security requirements of the robotic platforms, which use MobileEyes/arnlServer client/server applications. A robot attack tool (RAT) was developed to perform specific security attacks. An impact-oriented approach was adopted to analyze the assessment results of the attacks. Tests and experiments of attacks were conducted in simulation environment and physically on the robot. The simulation environment was based on MobileSim; a software tool for simulating, debugging and experimenting on MobileRobots/ActivMedia platforms and their environments. The robot platform PeopleBotTM was used for physical experiments. The analysis and testing results show that certain attacks were successful at breaching the robot security. Integrity attacks modified commands and manipulated the robot behavior. Availability attacks were able to cause Denial-of-Service (DoS) and the robot was not responsive to MobileEyes commands. Integrity and availability attacks caused sensitive information on the robot to be hijacked. To mitigate security threats, we provide possible mitigation techniques and suggestions to raise awareness of threats on the robotic platforms, especially when the robots are involved in critical missions or applications. PMID:29883403

Application of Latin hypercube sampling to RADTRAN 4 truck accident risk sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

1994-01-01

The sensitivity of calculated dose estimates to various RADTRAN 4 inputs is an available output for incident-free analysis because the defining equations are linear and sensitivity to each variable can be calculated in closed mathematical form. However, the necessary linearity is not characteristic of the equations used in calculation of accident dose risk, making a similar tabulation of sensitivity for RADTRAN 4 accident analysis impossible. Therefore, a study of sensitivity of accident risk results to variation of input parameters was performed using representative routes, isotopic inventories, and packagings. It was determined that, of the approximately two dozen RADTRAN 4 input parameters pertinent to accident analysis, only a subset of five or six has significant influence on typical analyses or is subject to random uncertainties. These five or six variables were selected as candidates for Latin Hypercube Sampling applications. To make the effect of input uncertainties on calculated accident risk more explicit, distributions and limits were determined for two variables which had approximately proportional effects on calculated doses: Pasquill Category probability (PSPROB) and link population density (LPOPD). These distributions and limits were used as input parameters to Sandia's Latin Hypercube Sampling code to generate 50 sets of RADTRAN 4 input parameters used together with point estimates of other necessary inputs to calculate 50 observations of estimated accident dose risk.Tabulations of the RADTRAN 4 accident risk input variables and their influence on output plus illustrative examples of the LHS calculations, for truck transport situations that are typical of past experience, will be presented

Nuclear terrorism - Threat or not?

Science.gov (United States)

Pomper, Miles A.; Tarini, Gabrielle

2017-11-01

A terrorist attack using nuclear or radiological materials is a low-probability event, but if executed, would lead to unprecedented socio-economic, material, and psychological disruption and damage. This chapter seeks to provide a sound assessment of the scope and nature of the threat by examining the different types of nuclear terrorism, each of which poses different risks, involves different barriers to success, and requires different terrorist capabilities. In addition, the chapter aims to provide an overview of the sources and nature of terrorists' motivations to employ a nuclear attack.

Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandrowski, M.S.

1988-01-01

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

Ebola virus – new threat to global health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rina K. Kusumaratna

2015-12-01

    The Ebola virus outbreak constitutes a serious warning that epidemics may occur anywhere and places every afflicted nation at risk. Therefore it is essential to institute measures to stop its spread and its future threat, which is a moral obligation of members of the health profession, whether academicians, researchers, or health ministry officials.

Sensitivity of risk parameters to human errors for a PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.; Hall, R.E.; Kerr, W.

1980-01-01

Sensitivities of the risk parameters, emergency safety system unavailabilities, accident sequence probabilities, release category probabilities and core melt probability were investigated for changes in the human error rates within the general methodological framework of the Reactor Safety Study for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Impact of individual human errors were assessed both in terms of their structural importance to core melt and reliability importance on core melt probability. The Human Error Sensitivity Assessment of a PWR (HESAP) computer code was written for the purpose of this study

Explosive and chemical threat detection by surface-enhanced Raman scattering: A review

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hakonen, Aron; Andersson, Per Ola; Schmidt, Michael Stenbæk

2015-01-01

Acts of terror and warfare threats are challenging tasks for defense agencies around the world and of growing importance to security conscious policy makers and the general public. Explosives and chemical warfare agents are two of the major concerns in this context, as illustrated by the recent...... progressively better, smaller and cheaper, and can today be acquired for a retail price close to 10,000 US$. This contribution aims to give a comprehensive overview of SERS as a technique for detection of explosives and chemical threats. We discuss the prospects of SERS becoming a major tool for convenient in......-situ threat identification and we summarize existing SERS detection methods and substrates with particular focus on ultra-sensitive real-time detection. General concepts, detection capabilities and perspectives are discussed in order to guide potential users of the technique for homeland security and anti-warfare...

Initial perspectives on process threat management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whiteley, James R. Rob; Mannan, M. Sam

2004-01-01

Terrorist and criminal acts are now considered credible risks in the process industries. Deliberate attacks on the nation's petroleum refineries and chemical plants would pose a significant threat to public welfare, national security, and the US economy. To-date, the primary response of government and industry has been on improved security to prevent attacks and the associated consequences. While prevention is clearly preferred, the potential for successful attacks must be addressed. If plant security is breached, the extent of the inflicted damage is determined by the available plant safety systems and procedures. We refer to this 'inside the gate' response as process threat management. The authors have initiated a joint industry/academia study to address: - the level of safety provided by existing plant equipment and safety systems in response to a terrorist act, and; - identification of process (rather than security) needs or opportunities to address this new safety concern. This paper describes the initial perspectives and issues identified by the team at the beginning of the study

Insiders and Insider Threats

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hunker, Jeffrey; Probst, Christian W.

2011-01-01

Threats from the inside of an organization’s perimeters are a significant problem, since it is difficult to distinguish them from benign activity. In this overview article we discuss defining properties of insiders and insider threats. After presenting definitions of these terms, we go on to disc......Threats from the inside of an organization’s perimeters are a significant problem, since it is difficult to distinguish them from benign activity. In this overview article we discuss defining properties of insiders and insider threats. After presenting definitions of these terms, we go...

Behavioral control and reward sensitivity in adolescents’ risk taking behavior : A longitudinal TRAILS study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peeters, M.; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, W.A.M.

2017-01-01

Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this

Behavioral Control and Reward Sensitivity in Adolescents' Risk Taking Behavior : A Longitudinal TRAILS Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peeters, Margot; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, Wilma

2017-01-01

Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this

Stereotype Threat's Effect on Women's Achievement in Chemistry: The Interaction of Achievement Goal Orientation for Women in Science Majors

Science.gov (United States)

Conway-Klaassen, Janice Marjorie

2010-01-01

"Stereotype threat is being at risk of confirming, as a self-characteristic, a negative stereotype about one's group" (C. M. Steele & Aronson, 1995, p. 797). A stereotype threat effect then is described as the detrimental impact on a person's performance or achievement measurements when they are placed in a stereotype threat environment. For…

Subconscious detection of threat as reflected by an enhanced response bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Windmann, S; Krüger, T

1998-12-01

Neurobiological and cognitive models of unconscious information processing suggest that subconscious threat detection can lead to cognitive misinterpretations and false alarms, while conscious processing is assumed to be perceptually and conceptually accurate and unambiguous. Furthermore, clinical theories suggest that pathological anxiety results from a crude preattentive warning system predominating over more sophisticated and controlled modes of processing. We investigated the hypothesis that subconscious detection of threat in a cognitive task is reflected by enhanced "false signal" detection rather than by selectively enhanced discrimination of threat items in 30 patients with panic disorder and 30 healthy controls. We presented a tachistoscopic word-nonword discrimination task and a subsequent recognition task and analyzed the data by means of process-dissociation procedures. In line with our expectations, subjects of both groups showed more false signal detection to threat than to neutral stimuli as indicated by an enhanced response bias, whereas indices of discriminative sensitivity did not show this effect. In addition, patients with panic disorder showed a generally enhanced response bias in comparison to healthy controls. They also seemed to have processed the stimuli less elaborately and less differentially. Results are consistent with the assumption that subconscious threat detection can lead to misrepresentations of stimulus significance and that pathological anxiety is characterized by a hyperactive preattentive alarm system that is insufficiently controlled by higher cognitive processes. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.

IgE sensitization to inhalant allergens and the risk of airway infection and disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skaaby, Tea; Husemoen, Lise Lotte Nystrup; Thuesen, Betina Heinsbæk

2017-01-01

.26, 95% CI: 1.79, 2.86), and other chronic lower airway disease (HR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.58). In never smokers, the higher risk of pneumonia (HR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.23, 2.44) and asthma (HR = 3.17, 95% CI: 2.10, 4.76) among IgE sensitized was more pronounced. CONCLUSIONS: IgE sensitization......-analysed, and expressed as hazard ratios, HRs (95% confidence intervals, CIs). RESULTS: The relative risks for IgE sensitized vs. non-sensitized were: for pneumonia (HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.41), other acute airway infection (HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.60, 1.22), infection (HR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.90, 1.24), asthma (HR = 2...

How can we use the radioecological sensitivity concept as a tool for risk management?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mercat-Rommens, C.; Renaud, P.

2004-01-01

The consequences for the man and the environment of the discharges of nuclear facilities depend on the importance and the nature of the discharges, but also on the environment which receives them. Thus, the impact of a pollution, which is expressed in term of toxicity, risk or economic consequences, varies according to the characteristics of the environment and the use of this environment by the man. The radioecological sensitivity can be defined as the response of the environment to a radioactive pollution. For a determined discharge, the higher is the response, the more sensitive is the environment. If all the ecosystems appear sensitive, their sensitivity does not concern the same criteria and it is currently difficult to compare these criteria between them. The idea of the SENSIB project is to create a standardized tool which makes it possible to represent and to compare with the same scale the sensitivity of various ecosystems. The SENSIB project aims to develop both a methodology to calculate sensitivity indexes and a radioecological sensitivity scale usable for risk management. (orig.)

In chemico skin sensitization risk assessment of botanical ingredients.

Science.gov (United States)

Avonto, Cristina; Chittiboyina, Amar G; Sadrieh, Nakissa; Vukmanovic, Stanislav; Khan, Ikhlas A

2018-03-24

Skin sensitization risk assessment of botanical ingredients is necessary for consumers' protection and occupational hazard identification. There are currently very few available alternative methods that can assist in the evaluation of complex mixtures. Chemical methods can provide essential information in a timely manner and thus help to reduce the need for in vivo testing, and they can complement and facilitate targeted in vitro assays. In the present work, the applicability of the high-throughput screening with dansyl cysteamine (DCYA) method for the systematic evaluation of skin sensitization of complex botanicals was explored. Botanical ingredients of four unrelated plant species were obtained and tested with the high-throughput fluorescence method at three concentrations. To illustrate the minimal matrix effects of the tested extracts on the developed method, the least DCYA-reactive extract (Rosa canina) was spiked with known sensitizers at different concentrations. The data obtained from the four plant extracts and the spiking experiments with known sensitizers, suggest that the high-throughput screening-DCYA method can be successfully applied for estimating the skin sensitization potential of complex botanical matrices. This is the first report of an attempt to develop a versatile in chemico method for the rapid detection of reactive skin sensitizers in complex botanical extracts, which could complement the battery of existing validated, non-animal methods. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Poland and Global Threats

Science.gov (United States)

Kleer, Jerzy

2016-01-01

This essay seeks to present the specifics of global threats, as well as the reasons for them being universal in nature, and for their persistence. A certain classification of the threats is also engaged in. At the same time, an attempt is made to show the specific threats present - irrespective of their global counterparts - in different regions, and even in different states. The genesis and nature of the latter are demonstrated in a somewhat ad hoc manner by reference to the threats considered to face Poland. If the global threats are truly universal, and arise out of the changes taking place around the world in the last half-century (primarily around the twin phenomena of globalisation and the information revolution), a specific reverse kind of situation applies to decolonisation, plus the collapse of the communist system and the transformation into market economies that apply to formerly communist countries. Equally, some at least of the threats facing Poland may have even a longer history, given that they are very much influenced by past economic and political development, as well as the dominant cultural system.

Risk-Sensitive and Mean Variance Optimality in Markov Decision Processes

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sladký, Karel

2013-01-01

Roč. 7, č. 3 (2013), s. 146-161 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/0956; GA ČR GAP402/11/0150 Grant - others:AVČR a CONACyT(CZ) 171396 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Discrete-time Markov decision chains * exponential utility functions * certainty equivalent * mean-variance optimality * connections between risk -sensitive and risk -neutral models Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/sladky-0399099.pdf

Are All Interventions Created Equal? A Multi-Threat Approach to Tailoring Stereotype Threat Interventions

OpenAIRE

Shapiro, Jenessa R.; Williams, Amy M.; Hambarchyan, Mariam

2012-01-01

To date, stereotype threat interventions have been considered interchangeable. Across 4 experiments, the present research demonstrates that stereotype threat interventions need to be tailored to the specific form of experienced stereotype threat to be effective. The Multi-Threat Framework (Shapiro & Neuberg, 2007) distinguishes between group-as-target stereotype threats—concerns that a stereotype-relevant performance will reflect poorly on the abilities of one’s group—and self-as-target stere...

Inferring the nature of anthropogenic threats from long-term abundance records.

Science.gov (United States)

Shoemaker, Kevin T; Akçakaya, H Resit

2015-02-01

Diagnosing the processes that threaten species persistence is critical for recovery planning and risk forecasting. Dominant threats are typically inferred by experts on the basis of a patchwork of informal methods. Transparent, quantitative diagnostic tools would contribute much-needed consistency, objectivity, and rigor to the process of diagnosing anthropogenic threats. Long-term census records, available for an increasingly large and diverse set of taxa, may exhibit characteristic signatures of specific threatening processes and thereby provide information for threat diagnosis. We developed a flexible Bayesian framework for diagnosing threats on the basis of long-term census records and diverse ancillary sources of information. We tested this framework with simulated data from artificial populations subjected to varying degrees of exploitation and habitat loss and several real-world abundance time series for which threatening processes are relatively well understood: bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) (exploitation) and Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) and Eurasian Skylark (Alauda arvensis) (habitat loss). Our method correctly identified the process driving population decline for over 90% of time series simulated under moderate to severe threat scenarios. Successful identification of threats approached 100% for severe exploitation and habitat loss scenarios. Our method identified threats less successfully when threatening processes were weak and when populations were simultaneously affected by multiple threats. Our method selected the presumed true threat model for all real-world case studies, although results were somewhat ambiguous in the case of the Eurasian Skylark. In the latter case, incorporation of an ancillary source of information (records of land-use change) increased the weight assigned to the presumed true model from 70% to 92%, illustrating the value of the proposed framework in bringing diverse sources of

Cognitive development in children of adolescent mothers: The impact of socioeconomic risk and maternal sensitivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Firk, Christine; Konrad, Kerstin; Herpertz-Dahlmann, Beate; Scharke, Wolfgang; Dahmen, Brigitte

2018-02-01

Adolescent motherhood is accompanied by a constellation of risk factors that translate into developmental risk for the off-spring. Socioeconomic risk that is associated with adolescent motherhood as well as maternal interactive behaviors may contribute to the impact of adolescent motherhood on children's developmental outcome. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to investigate differences in children's cognitive development between children of adolescent and adult mothers in their first two years of life and to examine whether socioeconomic risk (e.g. such as educational and financial problems) and/or maternal sensitivity mediate developmental differences between children of adolescent and adult mothers. Adolescent mothers (25 years; N = 34) and their infants were included in the current study. Child cognitive development and maternal sensitivity were assessed at three different time points (T1: mean child age 5.26 months; T2: mean child age 14.69 months; T3: mean child age 21.16 months). Children of adult mothers showed better cognitive performance at T3 compared to children of adolescent mothers but not at T1 and T2. A multiple mediation model including socioeconomic risk and maternal sensitivity as serial mediators demonstrated that the effect of adolescent motherhood on cognitive development was mediated in a causal effect chain with socioeconomic risk negatively affecting maternal sensitivity and maternal sensitivity affecting children's cognitive development. The present findings demonstrate that maternal interactive behaviors are not only a simple predictor of cognitive development but may also act as a mediator of the association between more distal variables such as socioeconomic risk and cognitive development in adolescent mothers. This supports the need to promote prevention and intervention programs for adolescent mothers during the early postpartum period to reduce socioeconomic problems and enhance maternal interactive behaviors. Copyright

Threat modeling designing for security

CERN Document Server

Shostack, Adam

2014-01-01

Adam Shostack is responsible for security development lifecycle threat modeling at Microsoft and is one of a handful of threat modeling experts in the world. Now, he is sharing his considerable expertise into this unique book. With pages of specific actionable advice, he details how to build better security into the design of systems, software, or services from the outset. You'll explore various threat modeling approaches, find out how to test your designs against threats, and learn effective ways to address threats that have been validated at Microsoft and other top companies. Systems secur

Suitable Enemies? Governmentality of Youth: Youth as a Threat

Science.gov (United States)

Ostrowicka, Helena

2012-01-01

This article is a contribution to the discourse of politics towards (for) youth, which the author defines as the "cultural politics of risk". The article begins with scientific representations of youth as a threat, as a group inclined to engage in risky behaviours. It then focuses on theoretical approaches called the "risk…

Terrorism in Australia: factors associated with perceived threat and incident-critical behaviours

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raphael Beverley

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background To help improve incident preparedness this study assessed socio-demographic and socio-economic predictors of perceived risk of terrorism within Australia and willingness to comply with public safety directives during such incidents. Methods The terrorism perception question module was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey and was completed by a representative sample of 2,081 respondents in early 2007. Responses were weighted against the New South Wales population. Results Multivariate analyses indicated that those with no formal educational qualifications were significantly more likely (OR = 2.10, 95%CI:1.32–3.35, p Conclusion Low education level is a risk factor for high terrorism risk perception and concerns regarding potential impacts. The pattern of concern and response among those of migrant background may reflect secondary social impacts associated with heightened community threat, rather than the direct threat of terrorism itself. These findings highlight the need for terrorism risk communication and related strategies to address the specific concerns of these sub-groups as a critical underpinning of population-level preparedness.

Neural responses to threat and reward interact to predict stress-related problem drinking: A novel protective role of the amygdala

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Research into neural mechanisms of drug abuse risk has focused on the role of dysfunction in neural circuits for reward. In contrast, few studies have examined the role of dysfunction in neural circuits of threat in mediating drug abuse risk. Although typically regarded as a risk factor for mood and anxiety disorders, threat-related amygdala reactivity may serve as a protective factor against substance use disorders, particularly in individuals with exaggerated responsiveness to reward. Findings We used well-established neuroimaging paradigms to probe threat-related amygdala and reward-related ventral striatum reactivity in a sample of 200 young adult students from the ongoing Duke Neurogenetics Study. Recent life stress and problem drinking were assessed using self-report. We found a significant three-way interaction between threat-related amygdala reactivity, reward-related ventral striatum reactivity, and recent stress, wherein individuals with higher reward-related ventral striatum reactivity exhibit higher levels of problem drinking in the context of stress, but only if they also have lower threat-related amygdala reactivity. This three-way interaction predicted both contemporaneous problem drinking and problem drinking reported three-months later in a subset of participants. Conclusions These findings suggest complex interactions between stress and neural responsiveness to both threat and reward mediate problem drinking. Furthermore, they highlight a novel protective role for threat-related amygdala reactivity against drug use in individuals with high neural reactivity to reward. PMID:23151390

Suicide Risk, Stress Sensitivity, and Self-Esteem among Young Adults Reporting Auditory Hallucinations.

Science.gov (United States)

DeVylder, Jordan E; Hilimire, Matthew R

2015-08-01

Individuals with subthreshold psychotic experiences are at increased risk for suicidal thoughts and behavior, similar to those with schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders. This may be explained by shared risk factors such as heightened stress sensitivity or low self-esteem. Understanding the nature of this relationship could inform suicide prevention in social work practice. In this study, authors examined the relationship between self-reported auditory hallucinations and suicidal thoughts, plans, and attempts, in a nonclinical sample of young adults, controlling for scores on the Psychological Stress Index and Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale. Auditory hallucinations were associated with approximately double the odds of suicidal ideation and plans and four times the odds for suicide attempts. This relationship was not explained by stress sensitivity or self-esteem, which were independently related to hallucinations and suicidality, respectively. Subthreshold auditory hallucinations may be a useful indicator of suicide risk. This association may represent a clinically significant relationship that may be addressed through social work interventions intended to alleviate stress sensitivity or improve self-esteem.

Chronic illness in the workplace: stigma, identity threat and strain.

Science.gov (United States)

McGonagle, Alyssa K; Barnes-Farrell, Janet L

2014-10-01

Chronic illness affects a large and growing number of workers in the United States and globally. Stigmatization (devaluation) at work based on chronic illness may be stressful for individuals and therefore may lead to negative psychological consequences (i.e. strains). In order to better understand stressful experiences of stigma for workers with chronic illnesses, a model of stigma-related identity threat (perceptions that one is at risk of being treated negatively at work because of chronic illness) was tested on a sample of 203 working adults with chronic illnesses. The following variables related to workers' perceptions of chronic illness-related identity threat: workers' boundary flexibility (flexibility in managing their work and life), their meta-perceptions of devaluation (perceptions of others' devaluation of them based on illness) and their job self-efficacy (feelings of confidence related to performing their job). In turn, perceptions of identity threat related to both feelings of psychological strain and (lower levels of) perceived work ability. Surprisingly, neither stigma centrality (how fundamental illness is to one's identity) nor supervisor support related to workers' identity threat perceptions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessing loss event frequencies of smart grid cyber threats: Encoding flexibility into FAIR using Bayesian network approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Le, Anhtuan; Chen, Yue; Chai, Kok Keong; Vasenev, Alexandr; Montoya, L.

Assessing loss event frequencies (LEF) of smart grid cyber threats is essential for planning cost-effective countermeasures. Factor Analysis of Information Risk (FAIR) is a well-known framework that can be applied to consider threats in a structured manner by using look-up tables related to a

Privacy and information security risks in a technology platform for home-based chronic disease rehabilitation and education.

Science.gov (United States)

Henriksen, Eva; Burkow, Tatjana M; Johnsen, Elin; Vognild, Lars K

2013-08-09

Privacy and information security are important for all healthcare services, including home-based services. We have designed and implemented a prototype technology platform for providing home-based healthcare services. It supports a personal electronic health diary and enables secure and reliable communication and interaction with peers and healthcare personnel. The platform runs on a small computer with a dedicated remote control. It is connected to the patient's TV and to a broadband Internet. The platform has been tested with home-based rehabilitation and education programs for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes. As part of our work, a risk assessment of privacy and security aspects has been performed, to reveal actual risks and to ensure adequate information security in this technical platform. Risk assessment was performed in an iterative manner during the development process. Thus, security solutions have been incorporated into the design from an early stage instead of being included as an add-on to a nearly completed system. We have adapted existing risk management methods to our own environment, thus creating our own method. Our method conforms to ISO's standard for information security risk management. A total of approximately 50 threats and possible unwanted incidents were identified and analysed. Among the threats to the four information security aspects: confidentiality, integrity, availability, and quality; confidentiality threats were identified as most serious, with one threat given an unacceptable level of High risk. This is because health-related personal information is regarded as sensitive. Availability threats were analysed as low risk, as the aim of the home programmes is to provide education and rehabilitation services; not for use in acute situations or for continuous health monitoring. Most of the identified threats are applicable for healthcare services intended for patients or citizens in their own homes. Confidentiality

Terrorism in Australia: factors associated with perceived threat and incident-critical behaviours.

Science.gov (United States)

Stevens, Garry; Agho, Kingsley; Taylor, Melanie; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley; Jorm, Louisa

2009-03-27

To help improve incident preparedness this study assessed socio-demographic and socio-economic predictors of perceived risk of terrorism within Australia and willingness to comply with public safety directives during such incidents. The terrorism perception question module was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey and was completed by a representative sample of 2,081 respondents in early 2007. Responses were weighted against the New South Wales population. Multivariate analyses indicated that those with no formal educational qualifications were significantly more likely (OR = 2.10, 95%CI:1.32-3.35, p terrorism risk perception and concerns regarding potential impacts. The pattern of concern and response among those of migrant background may reflect secondary social impacts associated with heightened community threat, rather than the direct threat of terrorism itself. These findings highlight the need for terrorism risk communication and related strategies to address the specific concerns of these sub-groups as a critical underpinning of population-level preparedness.

Terrorism in Australia: factors associated with perceived threat and incident-critical behaviours

Science.gov (United States)

Stevens, Garry; Agho, Kingsley; Taylor, Melanie; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley; Jorm, Louisa

2009-01-01

Background To help improve incident preparedness this study assessed socio-demographic and socio-economic predictors of perceived risk of terrorism within Australia and willingness to comply with public safety directives during such incidents. Methods The terrorism perception question module was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey and was completed by a representative sample of 2,081 respondents in early 2007. Responses were weighted against the New South Wales population. Results Multivariate analyses indicated that those with no formal educational qualifications were significantly more likely (OR = 2.10, 95%CI:1.32–3.35, p terrorism risk perception and concerns regarding potential impacts. The pattern of concern and response among those of migrant background may reflect secondary social impacts associated with heightened community threat, rather than the direct threat of terrorism itself. These findings highlight the need for terrorism risk communication and related strategies to address the specific concerns of these sub-groups as a critical underpinning of population-level preparedness. PMID:19323842

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Goodman, Steven J.; LaCasse, Katherine M.; Cecil, Daniel J.

2008-01-01

Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time and space dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threat, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of each. The new methods are distinctive in that they are based entirely on the ice-phase hydrometeor fields generated by regional cloud-resolving numerical simulations, such as those produced by the WRF model. These methods are justified by established observational evidence linking aspects of the precipitating ice hydrometeor fields to total flash rates. The methods are straightforward and easy to implement, and offer an effective near-term alternative to the incorporation of complex and costly cloud electrification schemes into numerical models. One method is based on upward fluxes of precipitating ice hydrometeors in the mixed phase region at the-15 C level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domain-wide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domain-wide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. Our blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Exploratory tests for selected North Alabama cases show that, because WRF can distinguish the general character of most convective events, our methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because the models tend to have more difficulty in predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single

How can sensitivity analysis improve the robustness of mathematical models utilized by the re/insurance industry?

Science.gov (United States)

Noacco, V.; Wagener, T.; Pianosi, F.; Philp, T.

2017-12-01

Insurance companies provide insurance against a wide range of threats, such as natural catastrophes, nuclear incidents and terrorism. To quantify risk and support investment decisions, mathematical models are used, for example to set the premiums charged to clients that protect from financial loss, should deleterious events occur. While these models are essential tools for adequately assessing the risk attached to an insurer's portfolio, their development is costly and their value for decision-making may be limited by an incomplete understanding of uncertainty and sensitivity. Aside from the business need to understand risk and uncertainty, the insurance sector also faces regulation which requires them to test their models in such a way that uncertainties are appropriately captured and that plans are in place to assess the risks and their mitigation. The building and testing of models constitutes a high cost for insurance companies, and it is a time intensive activity. This study uses an established global sensitivity analysis toolbox (SAFE) to more efficiently capture the uncertainties and sensitivities embedded in models used by a leading re/insurance firm, with structured approaches to validate these models and test the impact of assumptions on the model predictions. It is hoped that this in turn will lead to better-informed and more robust business decisions.

Diet and the risk of breast cancer in a case-control study: does the threat of disease have an influence on recall bias?

Science.gov (United States)

Männistö, S; Pietinen, P; Virtanen, M; Kataja, V; Uusitupa, M

1999-05-01

It has been suggested that recall bias may explain the discrepant results between case-control and cohort studies on diet and the risk of breast cancer. Two control groups were used for this case-control study of 25 to 75-year-old breast cancer cases (n = 310). The first group consisted of population controls drawn from the Finnish National Population Register (n = 454). The second group consisted of women who were referred to the same examinations as were the cases because of clinical suspicion of breast disease but who were later diagnosed as healthy (referral controls; n = 506). Because the diagnosis was unknown at the time of interview, it was possible to assess by comparing the two control groups whether the self-reporting of diet changed under the threat of disease. Dietary habits were examined using a validated, self-administered food-frequency questionnaire. Premenopausal women misreported their consumption of liquid milk products, tea, and sugar. Reporting bias was also associated with the intake of fat and vitamins. Postmenopausal women misreported consumption of milk products. When recall bias was taken into consideration, milk was associated with increased risk of premenopausal breast cancer, whereas high consumption of poultry or high intake of monounsaturated fatty acids, n-3 fatty acids, n-6 fatty acids, and vitamin E were related to lower risk. The study suggested that oil, milk, cheese, coffee and beta-carotene may act as protective factors in postmenopausal women, whereas butter and cream may be risk factors for breast cancer. In summary, it is possible that some food items may be overreported or underreported under the threat of disease in health-conscious population. However, most of the results in this study were not modified by recall bias.

Risk and safety perception on urban and rural roads: Effects of environmental features, driver age and risk sensitivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Jolene A; Beanland, Vanessa; Filtness, Ashleigh J

2017-10-03

The ability to detect changing visual information is a vital component of safe driving. In addition to detecting changing visual information, drivers must also interpret its relevance to safety. Environmental changes considered to have high safety relevance will likely demand greater attention and more timely responses than those considered to have lower safety relevance. The aim of this study was to explore factors that are likely to influence perceptions of risk and safety regarding changing visual information in the driving environment. Factors explored were the environment in which the change occurs (i.e., urban vs. rural), the type of object that changes, and the driver's age, experience, and risk sensitivity. Sixty-three licensed drivers aged 18-70 years completed a hazard rating task, which required them to rate the perceived hazardousness of changing specific elements within urban and rural driving environments. Three attributes of potential hazards were systematically manipulated: the environment (urban, rural); the type of object changed (road sign, car, motorcycle, pedestrian, traffic light, animal, tree); and its inherent safety risk (low risk, high risk). Inherent safety risk was manipulated by either varying the object's placement, on/near or away from the road, or altering an infrastructure element that would require a change to driver behavior. Participants also completed two driving-related risk perception tasks, rating their relative crash risk and perceived risk of aberrant driving behaviors. Driver age was not significantly associated with hazard ratings, but individual differences in perceived risk of aberrant driving behaviors predicted hazard ratings, suggesting that general driving-related risk sensitivity plays a strong role in safety perception. In both urban and rural scenes, there were significant associations between hazard ratings and inherent safety risk, with low-risk changes perceived as consistently less hazardous than high-risk

Countering Insider Threats

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Probst, Christian W.; Hunker, Jeffrey; Gollmann, Dieter

threat, and to develop a common vision of how an insider can be categorized as well as an integrated approach that allows a qualitative reasoning about the threat and the possibilities of attacks. This report gives an overview of the discussions and presentations during the week, as well as the outcome...

PORT SECURITY-Threats and Vulnerabilities

OpenAIRE

Kusi, Bernard

2015-01-01

The main objective of this thesis is to identify the threats and the vulnerabilities concerning Takoradi port, and finally recommend measure to overcome the identified threats and vul-nerabilities. Various categories of potential threats and vulnerabilities have been studied throughout the literature review. However, because each port presents a unique sets of threats and vulnerabilities, there was a need to look critically into how Takoradi port operations are being conducted in other to ide...

The role of prevention focus under stereotype threat: Initial cognitive mobilization is followed by depletion.

Science.gov (United States)

Ståhl, Tomas; Van Laar, Colette; Ellemers, Naomi

2012-06-01

Previous research has demonstrated that stereotype threat induces a prevention focus and impairs central executive functions. The present research examines how these 2 consequences of stereotype threat are related. The authors argue that the prevention focus is responsible for the effects of stereotype threat on executive functions and cognitive performance. However, because the prevention focus is adapted to deal with threatening situations, the authors propose that it also leads to some beneficial responses to stereotype threat. Specifically, because stereotype threat signals a high risk of failure, a prevention focus initiates immediate recruitment of cognitive control resources. The authors further argue that this response initially facilitates cognitive performance but that the additional cognitive demands associated with working under threat lead to cognitive depletion over time. Study 1 demonstrates that stereotype threat (vs. control) facilitates immediate cognitive control capacity during a stereotype-relevant task. Study 2 experimentally demonstrates the process by showing that stereotype threat (vs. control) facilitates cognitive control as a default, as well as when a prevention focus has been experimentally induced, but not when a promotion focus has been induced. Study 3 shows that stereotype threat facilitates initial math performance under a prevention focus, whereas no effect is found under a promotion focus. Consistent with previous research, however, stereotype threat impaired math performance over time under a prevention focus, but not under a promotion focus. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

An examination of age-based stereotype threat about cognitive decline: Implications for stereotype threat research and theory development

Science.gov (United States)

Barber, Sarah J.

2017-01-01

“Stereotype threat” is often thought of as a singular construct, with moderators and mechanisms that are stable across groups and domains. However, this is not always true. To illustrate this, the current review focuses on the stereotype threat that older adults face about their cognitive abilities. Using Shapiro and Neuberg's (2007) Multi-Threat Framework, I first provide evidence that this is a self-concept threat, and not a group-reputation threat. Because this differs from the form(s) of threat experienced by other groups (e.g., the threat that minority students face about their intellectual abilities), the moderators of threat observed in other groups (i.e., group identification) do not always generalize to age-based stereotype threat about cognitive decline. Looking beyond the form(s) of threat elicited, this review also provides evidence that the mechanisms underlying stereotype threat effects may vary across the lifespan. Due to age-related improvements in emotion regulation abilities, stereotype threat does not seem to reduce older adults' executive control resources. Overall, this review highlights the need to approach the concept of stereotype threat with more granularity. This will allow us to design more effective stereotype threat interventions. It will also shed light on why certain effects “fail to replicate” across domains or groups. PMID:28073332

Understanding flood risk sensitivity and uncertainty in a subcatchment of the Thames River (United Kingdom)

Science.gov (United States)

Theofanidi, Sofia; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Clark, Joanna

2017-04-01

Floods are a global threat to social, economic and environmental development and there is a likelihood, that they could occur more frequently in the future due to climatic change. The severity of their impacts, which can last for years, has led to the urgent need for local communities and national authorities to develop flood warning systems for a better flood preparedness and emergency response. The flood warning systems often rely on hydrological forecasting tools to predict the hydrological response of a watershed before or during a flood event. Hydrological models have been substantially upgraded since the first use of hydrographs and the use of simple conceptual models. Hydrodynamic and hydraulic routing enables the spatial and temporal prediction of flow rates (peak discharges) and water levels. Moreover, the hydrodynamic modeling in 2D permits the estimation of the flood inundation area. This can be particularly useful because the flood zones can provide essential information about the flood risk and the flood damage. In this study, we use a hydrodynamic model which can simulate water levels and river flows in open channel conditions. The model can incorporate the effect of several river structures in the flood modeling process, such as the existence of bridges and weirs. The flood routing method is based on the solution of continuity and energy momentum equations. In addition, the floodplain inundation modeling which is based on the solution of shallow water equations along the channel's banks, will be used for the mapping of flood extent. A GIS interface will serve as a database, including high resolution topography, vector layers of river network, gauging stations, land use and land cover, geology and soil information. The flood frequency analysis, together with historical records on flood warnings, will enable the understanding on the flow regimes and the selection of particular flood events for modeling. One dimensional and two dimensional simulations

Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weir, Scott M.; Suski, Jamie G.; Salice, Christopher J.

2010-01-01

A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. - Avian receptors are not universally appropriate surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment.

Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weir, Scott M., E-mail: scott.weir@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Department of Environmental Toxicology, Box 41163, Lubbock, TX (United States); Suski, Jamie G., E-mail: jamie.suski@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Department of Biological Sciences, Box 43131, Lubbock, TX (United States); Salice, Christopher J., E-mail: chris.salice@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Department of Environmental Toxicology, Box 41163, Lubbock, TX (United States)

2010-12-15

A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. - Avian receptors are not universally appropriate surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment.

Nationwide assessment of nonpoint source threats to water quality

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas C. Brown; Pamela Froemke

2012-01-01

Water quality is a continuing national concern, in part because the containment of pollution from nonpoint (diffuse) sources remains a challenge. We examine the spatial distribution of nonpoint-source threats to water quality. On the basis of comprehensive data sets for a series of watershed stressors, the relative risk of water-quality impairment was estimated for the...

Mobile Workforce, Mobile Technology, Mobile Threats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia, J.

2015-01-01

Mobile technologies' introduction into the world of safeguards business processes such as inspection creates tremendous opportunity for novel approaches and could result in a number of improvements to such processes. Mobile applications are certainly the wave of the future. The success of the application ecosystems has shown that users want full fidelity, highly-usable, simple purpose applications with simple installation, quick responses and, of course, access to network resources at all times. But the counterpart to opportunity is risk, and the widespread adoption of mobile technologies requires a deep understanding of the threats and vulnerabilities inherent in mobile technologies. Modern mobile devices can be characterized as small computers. As such, the threats against computing infrastructure apply to mobile devices. Meanwhile, the attributes of mobile technology that make it such an obvious benefit over traditional computing platforms all have elements of risk: pervasive, always-on networking; diverse ecosystems; lack of centralized control; constantly shifting technological foundations; intense competition among competitors in the marketplace; the scale of the installation base (from millions to billions); and many more. This paper will explore the diverse and massive environment of mobile, the number of attackers and vast opportunities for compromise. The paper will explain how mobile devices prove valuable targets to both advanced and persistent attackers as well as less-skilled casual hackers. Organized crime, national intelligence agencies, corporate espionage are all part of the landscape. (author)

Use of Vertically Integrated Ice in WRF-Based Forecasts of Lightning Threat

Science.gov (United States)

McCaul, E. W., jr.; Goodman, S. J.

2008-01-01

Previously reported methods of forecasting lightning threat using fields of graupel flux from WRF simulations are extended to include the simulated field of vertically integrated ice within storms. Although the ice integral shows less temporal variability than graupel flux, it provides more areal coverage, and can thus be used to create a lightning forecast that better matches the areal coverage of the lightning threat found in observations of flash extent density. A blended lightning forecast threat can be constructed that retains much of the desirable temporal sensitivity of the graupel flux method, while also incorporating the coverage benefits of the ice integral method. The graupel flux and ice integral fields contributing to the blended forecast are calibrated against observed lightning flash origin density data, based on Lightning Mapping Array observations from a series of case studies chosen to cover a wide range of flash rate conditions. Linear curve fits that pass through the origin are found to be statistically robust for the calibration procedures.

Impact of attention biases to threat and effortful control on individual variations in negative affect and social withdrawal in very young children.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Claire E; Zapp, Daniel J; Fettig, Nicole B; Pérez-Edgar, Koraly

2016-01-01

Early temperamental sensitivity may form the basis for the later development of socioemotional maladjustment. In particular, temperamental negative affect places children at risk for the development of anxiety. However, not all children who show negative affect go on to develop anxiety or extreme social withdrawal. Recent research indicates that reactive control, in the form of attention to threat, may serve as a bridge between early temperament and the development of later social difficulties. In addition, variation in effortful control may also modulate this trajectory. Children (mean age=5.57 years) were assessed for attention bias to threatening and pleasant faces using a dot-probe paradigm. Attention bias to threatening (but not happy) faces moderated the direct positive relation between negative affect and social withdrawal. Children with threat biases showed a significant link between negative affect and social withdrawal, whereas children who avoided threat did not. In contrast, effortful control did not moderate the relation between negative affect and social withdrawal. Rather, there was a direct negative relation between effortful control and social withdrawal. The findings from this short report indicate that the relations among temperament, attention bias, and social withdrawal appears early in life and point to early emerging specificity in reactive and regulatory functioning. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Threat appeals in health communication: messages that elicit fear and enhance perceived efficacy positively impact on young male drivers

OpenAIRE

Carey, R. N.; Sarma, K. M.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Health communications often present graphic, threat-based representations of the potential consequences of health-risk behaviours. These 'threat appeals' feature prominently in public health campaigns, but their use is controversial, with studies investigating their efficacy reporting inconsistent, and often negative, findings. This research examined the impact of a threat-based road safety advertisement on the driving behaviour of young male drivers. METHODS: To address limitati...

Threat appeals in health communication: messages that elicit fear and enhance perceived efficacy positively impact on young male drivers

OpenAIRE

Rachel N. Carey; Kiran M. Sarma

2016-01-01

Background Health communications often present graphic, threat-based representations of the potential consequences of health-risk behaviours. These ?threat appeals? feature prominently in public health campaigns, but their use is controversial, with studies investigating their efficacy reporting inconsistent, and often negative, findings. This research examined the impact of a threat-based road safety advertisement on the driving behaviour of young male drivers. Methods To address limitations...

Robust bounds on risk-sensitive functionals via Renyi divergence

OpenAIRE

Atar, Rami; Chowdhary, Kamaljit; Dupuis, Paul

2013-01-01

We extend the duality between exponential integrals and relative entropy to a variational formula for exponential integrals involving the Renyi divergence. This formula characterizes the dependence of risk-sensitive functionals and related quantities determined by tail behavior to perturbations in the underlying distributions, in terms of the Renyi divergence. The characterization gives rise to upper and lower bounds that are meaningful for all values of a large deviation scaling parameter, a...

Prognostic Value of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T Compared with Risk Scores in Stable Cardiovascular Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Biener, Moritz; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Kuhner, Manuel; Zelniker, Thomas; Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Vafaie, Mehrshad; Trenk, Dietmar; Neumann, Franz-Josef; Hochholzer, Willibald; Katus, Hugo A

2017-05-01

Risk stratification of patients with cardiovascular disease remains challenging despite consideration of risk scores. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in a low-risk outpatient population presenting for nonsecondary and secondary prevention. All-cause mortality, a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke (end point 2), and a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, stroke and rehospitalization for acute coronary syndrome, and decompensated heart failure (end point 3) were defined. The prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T on index visit was compared with the PROCAM score and 3 FRAMINGHAM subscores. In 693 patients with a median follow-up of 796 days, we observed 16 deaths, 32 patients with end point 2, and 83 patients with end point 3. All risk scores performed better in the prediction of all-cause mortality in nonsecondary prevention (area under the curve [AUC]: PROCAM: 0.922 vs 0.523, P = .001, consistent for all other scores). In secondary prevention, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T outperformed all risk scores in the prediction of all-cause mortality (ΔAUC: PROCAM: 0.319, P risk scores. Our findings on the prediction of all-cause mortality compared with the FRAMINGHAM-Hard Coronary Heart Disease score were confirmed in an independent validation cohort on 2046 patients. High-sensitivity troponin T provides excellent risk stratification regarding all-cause mortality and all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke in a secondary prevention cohort in whom risk scores perform poorly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Differentiating risk for mania and borderline personality disorder: The nature of goal regulation and impulsivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Fulford, Daniel; Eisner, Lori R; Johnson, Sheri L

2015-06-30

Researchers and clinicians have long noted the overlap among features and high comorbidity of bipolar disorder and borderline personality disorder. The shared features of impulsivity and labile mood in both disorders make them challenging to distinguish. We tested the hypothesis that variables related to goal dysregulation would be uniquely related to risk for mania, while emotion-relevant impulsivity would be related to risk for both disorders. We administered a broad range of measures related to goal regulation traits and impulsivity to 214 undergraduates. Findings confirmed that risk for mania, but not for borderline personality disorder, was related to higher sensitivity to reward and intense pursuit of goals. In contrast, borderline personality disorder symptoms related more strongly than did mania risk with threat sensitivity and with impulsivity in the context of negative affect. Results highlight potential differences and commonalities in mania risk versus borderline personality disorder risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cybersecurity Public Sector Threats and Responses

CERN Document Server

Andreasson, Kim J

2011-01-01

The Internet has given rise to new opportunities for the public sector to improve efficiency and better serve constituents in the form of e-government. But with a rapidly growing user base globally and an increasing reliance on the Internet, digital tools are also exposing the public sector to new risks. An accessible primer, Cybersecurity: Public Sector Threats and Responses focuses on the convergence of globalization, connectivity, and the migration of public sector functions online. It identifies the challenges you need to be aware of and examines emerging trends and strategies from around

A Risk-Sensitive Portfolio Optimization Problem with Fixed Incomes Securities

OpenAIRE

Goel, Mayank; Kumar, K. Suresh

2007-01-01

We discuss a class of risk-sensitive portfolio optimization problems. We consider the portfolio optimization model investigated by Nagai in 2003. The model by its nature can include fixed income securities as well in the portfolio. Under fairly general conditions, we prove the existence of optimal portfolio in both finite and infinite horizon problems.

Tourism and recreation listed as a threat for a wide diversity of vascular plants: a continental scale review.

Science.gov (United States)

Rankin, Benjamin Luke; Ballantyne, Mark; Pickering, Catherine Marina

2015-05-01

Tourism and recreation are diverse and popular activities. They may also contribute to the risk of extinction for some plants because of the range and severity of their impacts, including in protected areas: but which species, where and how? To evaluate the extent to which tourism and recreation may be threatening process for plants, we conducted a continental level review of listed threats to endangered vascular plants using data from Australia. Of the 659 vascular plant species listed as critically endangered or endangered by the Australian Government, tourism and recreation were listed as a threat(s) for 42%. This is more than those listed as threatened by climate change (26%) and close to the proportion listed as threatened by altered fire regimes (47%). There are plant species with tourism and recreation listed threats in all States and Territories and from all but one bioregion in Australia. Although more than 45 plant families have species with tourism and recreation listed as threats, orchids were the most common species listed as at risk from these threats (90 species). The most common types of threats listed were visitors collecting plants in protected areas (113 species), trampling by hikers and others (84 species), damage from recreational vehicles (59 species) and road infrastructure (39 species). Despite the frequency with which tourism and recreation were listed as threats in Australia, research quantifying these threats and methods to ameliorate their impacts are still limited. Although this lack of information contributes to the challenge of managing tourism and recreation, impacts from visitors will often be easier to manage within natural areas than those from larger scale threats such as altered fire regimes and climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MINIMIZATION OF IMPACTS PERTAINING TO EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL ENERGY SECURITY THREATS OF THERMAL POWER PLANTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. N. Nagornov

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The paper contains a classification of internal and external threats for thermal power plants and recommendations on minimization of these risks. A set of concrete measures aimed at ensuring TPP energy security has been presented in the paper. The system comprises preventive measures aimed at reducing the possibilities of emergence and implementation of internal and external threats. The system also presupposes to decrease susceptibility of fuel- and energy supply systems to the threats, and application of liquidation measures that ensure elimination of emergency situation consequences and restoration of the conditions concerning fuel- and power supply to consumers.

threat or opportunity to distance education throughput at the south

African Journals Online (AJOL)

plt

requirements in particular, potentially increased risk of failure. .... E-portfolios can be used as evidence of achieved ... DoD should devise innovative strategies to resolve the de facto isolation of DE .... well-prepared, hard-copy study guides. ... managing the potential threats associated.63 The free use of technology by soldier ...

Neural prediction errors reveal a risk-sensitive reinforcement-learning process in the human brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Niv, Yael; Edlund, Jeffrey A; Dayan, Peter; O'Doherty, John P

2012-01-11

Humans and animals are exquisitely, though idiosyncratically, sensitive to risk or variance in the outcomes of their actions. Economic, psychological, and neural aspects of this are well studied when information about risk is provided explicitly. However, we must normally learn about outcomes from experience, through trial and error. Traditional models of such reinforcement learning focus on learning about the mean reward value of cues and ignore higher order moments such as variance. We used fMRI to test whether the neural correlates of human reinforcement learning are sensitive to experienced risk. Our analysis focused on anatomically delineated regions of a priori interest in the nucleus accumbens, where blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signals have been suggested as correlating with quantities derived from reinforcement learning. We first provide unbiased evidence that the raw BOLD signal in these regions corresponds closely to a reward prediction error. We then derive from this signal the learned values of cues that predict rewards of equal mean but different variance and show that these values are indeed modulated by experienced risk. Moreover, a close neurometric-psychometric coupling exists between the fluctuations of the experience-based evaluations of risky options that we measured neurally and the fluctuations in behavioral risk aversion. This suggests that risk sensitivity is integral to human learning, illuminating economic models of choice, neuroscientific models of affective learning, and the workings of the underlying neural mechanisms.

To Risk or Not to Risk: Anxiety and the Calibration between Risk Perception and Danger Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Notebaert, Lies; Masschelein, Stijn; Wright, Bridget; MacLeod, Colin

2016-01-01

Anxiety prepares an organism for dealing with threats by recruiting cognitive resources to process information about the threat, and by engaging physiological systems to prepare a response. Heightened trait anxiety is associated with biases in both these processes: high trait-anxious individuals tend to report heightened risk perceptions, and…

Analysis of Hydrological Sensitivity for Flood Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanjay Kumar Sharma

2018-02-01

Full Text Available In order for the Indian government to maximize Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM, the Brahmaputra River has played an important role in the undertaking of the Pilot Basin Study (PBS due to the Brahmaputra River’s annual regional flooding. The selected Kulsi River—a part of Brahmaputra sub-basin—experienced severe floods in 2007 and 2008. In this study, the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI hydrological model was used to simulate the recent historical flood in order to understand and improve the integrated flood risk management plan. The ultimate objective was to evaluate the sensitivity of hydrologic simulation using different Digital Elevation Model (DEM resources, coupled with DEM smoothing techniques, with a particular focus on the comparison of river discharge and flood inundation extent. As a result, the sensitivity analysis showed that, among the input parameters, the RRI model is highly sensitive to Manning’s roughness coefficient values for flood plains, followed by the source of the DEM, and then soil depth. After optimizing its parameters, the simulated inundation extent showed that the smoothing filter was more influential than its simulated discharge at the outlet. Finally, the calibrated and validated RRI model simulations agreed well with the observed discharge and the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS-detected flood extents.

An educationally inspired illustration of two-dimensional Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) and sensitivity analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Vásquez, G A; Busschaert, P; Haberbeck, L U; Uyttendaele, M; Geeraerd, A H

2014-11-03

Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a structured methodology used to assess the risk involved by ingestion of a pathogen. It applies mathematical models combined with an accurate exploitation of data sets, represented by distributions and - in the case of two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations - their hyperparameters. This research aims to highlight background information, assumptions and truncations of a two-dimensional QMRA and advanced sensitivity analysis. We believe that such a detailed listing is not always clearly presented in actual risk assessment studies, while it is essential to ensure reliable and realistic simulations and interpretations. As a case-study, we are considering the occurrence of listeriosis in smoked fish products in Belgium during the period 2008-2009, using two-dimensional Monte Carlo and two sensitivity analysis methods (Spearman correlation and Sobol sensitivity indices) to estimate the most relevant factors of the final risk estimate. A risk estimate of 0.018% per consumption of contaminated smoked fish by an immunocompromised person was obtained. The final estimate of listeriosis cases (23) is within the actual reported result obtained for the same period and for the same population. Variability on the final risk estimate is determined by the variability regarding (i) consumer refrigerator temperatures, (ii) the reference growth rate of L. monocytogenes, (iii) the minimum growth temperature of L. monocytogenes and (iv) consumer portion size. Variability regarding the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes tends to appear as a determinant of risk variability only when the minimum growth temperature is not included in the sensitivity analysis; when it is included the impact regarding the variability on the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes is disappearing. Uncertainty determinants of the final risk indicated the need of gathering more information on the reference growth rate and the minimum

Are ranger patrols effective in reducing poaching-related threats within protected areas?

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Jennnifer F.; Mulindahabi, Felix; Masozera, Michel K.; Nichols, James; Hines, James; Turikunkiko, Ezechiel; Oli, Madan K.

2018-01-01

Poaching is one of the greatest threats to wildlife conservation world-wide. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of poaching activities within protected areas, and the effectiveness of ranger patrols and ranger posts in mitigating these threats, are relatively unknown.We used 10 years (2006–2015) of ranger-based monitoring data and dynamic multi-season occupancy models to quantify poaching-related threats, to examine factors influencing the spatio-temporal dynamics of these threats and to test the efficiency of management actions to combat poaching in Nyungwe National Park (NNP), Rwanda.The probability of occurrence of poaching-related threats was highest at lower elevations (1,801–2,200 m), especially in areas that were close to roads and tourist trails; conversely, occurrence probability was lowest at high elevation sites (2,601–3,000 m), and near the park boundary and ranger posts. The number of ranger patrols substantially increased the probability that poaching-related threats disappear at a site if threats were originally present (i.e. probability of extinction of threats). Without ranger visits, the annual probability of extinction of poaching-related threats was an estimated 7%; this probability would increase to 20% and 57% with 20 and 50 ranger visits per year, respectively.Our results suggest that poaching-related threats can be effectively reduced in NNP by adding ranger posts in areas where they do not currently exist, and by increasing the number of patrols to sites where the probability of poaching activities is high.Synthesis and applications. Our application of dynamic occupancy models to predict the probability of presence of poaching-related threats is novel, and explicitly considers imperfect detection of illegal activities. Based on the modelled relationships, we identify areas that are most vulnerable to poaching, and offer insights regarding how ranger patrols can be optimally deployed to reduce poaching-related threats and

Counter-terrorism threat prediction architecture

Science.gov (United States)

Lehman, Lynn A.; Krause, Lee S.

2004-09-01

This paper will evaluate the feasibility of constructing a system to support intelligence analysts engaged in counter-terrorism. It will discuss the use of emerging techniques to evaluate a large-scale threat data repository (or Infosphere) and comparing analyst developed models to identify and discover potential threat-related activity with a uncertainty metric used to evaluate the threat. This system will also employ the use of psychological (or intent) modeling to incorporate combatant (i.e. terrorist) beliefs and intent. The paper will explore the feasibility of constructing a hetero-hierarchical (a hierarchy of more than one kind or type characterized by loose connection/feedback among elements of the hierarchy) agent based framework or "family of agents" to support "evidence retrieval" defined as combing, or searching the threat data repository and returning information with an uncertainty metric. The counter-terrorism threat prediction architecture will be guided by a series of models, constructed to represent threat operational objectives, potential targets, or terrorist objectives. The approach would compare model representations against information retrieved by the agent family to isolate or identify patterns that match within reasonable measures of proximity. The central areas of discussion will be the construction of an agent framework to search the available threat related information repository, evaluation of results against models that will represent the cultural foundations, mindset, sociology and emotional drive of typical threat combatants (i.e. the mind and objectives of a terrorist), and the development of evaluation techniques to compare result sets with the models representing threat behavior and threat targets. The applicability of concepts surrounding Modeling Field Theory (MFT) will be discussed as the basis of this research into development of proximity measures between the models and result sets and to provide feedback in support of model

Stereotype threat and female communication styles.

Science.gov (United States)

von Hippel, Courtney; Wiryakusuma, Cindy; Bowden, Jessica; Shochet, Megan

2011-10-01

A large body of research has documented the performance-debilitating effects of stereotype threat for individuals, but there is a paucity of research exploring interpersonal consequences of stereotype threat. Two experiments tested the hypothesis that stereotype threat would change the style in which women communicate. Results indicate that women who experience stereotype threat regarding leadership abilities react against the stereotype by adopting a more masculine communication style. Study 2 provides evidence that self-affirmation eliminates this effect of stereotype threat on women's communication styles. A third study demonstrates an ironic consequence of this effect of stereotype threat on women's communication--when women under stereotype threat adopt a more masculine communication style, they are rated as less warm and likeable, and evaluators indicate less willingness to comply with their requests. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

Assessing the integrity of local area network materials accountability systems against insider threats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, E.; Sicherman, A.

1996-07-01

DOE facilities rely increasingly on computerized systems to manage nuclear materials accountability data and to protect against diversion of nuclear materials or other malevolent acts (e.g., hoax due to falsified data) by insider threats. Aspects of modern computerized material accountability (MA) systems including powerful personal computers and applications on networks, mixed security environments, and more users with increased knowledge, skills and abilities help heighten the concern about insider threats to the integrity of the system. In this paper, we describe a methodology for assessing MA applications to help decision makers identify ways of and compare options for preventing or mitigating possible additional risks from the insider threat. We illustrate insights from applying the methodology to local area network materials accountability systems

Fear, threat and efficacy in threat appeals: message involvement as a key mediator to message acceptance.

Science.gov (United States)

Cauberghe, Verolien; De Pelsmacker, Patrick; Janssens, Wim; Dens, Nathalie

2009-03-01

In a sample of 170 youngsters, the effect of two versions of a public service announcement (PSA) threat appeal against speeding, placed in four different contexts, on evoked fear, perceived threat (severity and probability of occurrence), perceived response efficacy and self-efficacy, message involvement and anti-speeding attitude and anti-speeding intention is investigated. Evoked fear and perceived threat and efficacy independently influence message involvement. Message involvement is a full mediator between evoked fear, perceived threat and efficacy perception on the one hand, and attitudes towards the message and behavioral intention to accept the message on the other. Speeding experience has a significantly negative impact on anti-speeding attitudes. Message and medium context threat levels and context thematic congruency have a significant effect on evoked fear and to a lesser extent on perceived threat.

Environmental sensitivity mapping and risk assessment for oil spill along the Chennai Coast in India.

Science.gov (United States)

Kankara, R S; Arockiaraj, S; Prabhu, K

2016-05-15

Integration of oil spill modeling with coastal resource information could be useful for protecting the coastal environment from oil spills. A scenario-based risk assessment and sensitivity indexing were performed for the Chennai coast by integrating a coastal resource information system and an oil spill trajectory model. The fate analysis of spilled oil showed that 55% of oil out of a total volume of 100m(3) remained in the water column, affecting 800m of the shoreline. The seasonal scenarios show major impact during the southwest (SW) and northeast (NE) monsoons and more fatal effects on marine pelagic organisms during SW monsoon. The Oil Spill Risk Assessment Modeler tool was constructed in a geographic information systems (GIS) platform to analyze the risks, sensitivity mapping, and priority indexing of resources that are likely to be affected by oil spills along the Chennai coast. The results of sensitivity mapping and the risk assessment results can help organizations take measures to combat oil spills in a timely manner. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Skin sensitization quantitative risk assessment for occupational exposure of hairdressers to hair dye ingredients.

Science.gov (United States)

Goebel, Carsten; Diepgen, Thomas L; Blömeke, Brunhilde; Gaspari, Anthony A; Schnuch, Axel; Fuchs, Anne; Schlotmann, Kordula; Krasteva, Maya; Kimber, Ian

2018-06-01

Occupational exposure of hairdressers to hair dyes has been associated with the development of allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) involving the hands. p-Phenylenediamine (PPD) and toluene-2,5-diamine (PTD) have been implicated as important occupational contact allergens. To conduct a quantitative risk assessment for the induction of contact sensitization to hair dyes in hairdressers, available data from hand rinsing studies following typical occupational exposure conditions to PPD, PTD and resorcinol were assessed. By accounting for wet work, uneven exposure and inter-individual variability for professionals, daily hand exposure concentrations were derived. Secondly, daily hand exposure was compared with the sensitization induction potency of the individual hair dye defined as the No Expected Sensitization Induction Levels (NESIL). For PPD and PTD hairdresser hand exposure levels were 2.7 and 5.9 fold below the individual NESIL. In contrast, hand exposure to resorcinol was 50 fold below the NESIL. Correspondingly, the risk assessment for PPD and PTD indicates that contact sensitization may occur, when skin protection and skin care are not rigorously applied. We conclude that awareness of health risks associated with occupational exposure to hair dyes, and of the importance of adequate protective measures, should be emphasized more fully during hairdresser education and training. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interacting with sexist men triggers social identity threat among female engineers.

Science.gov (United States)

Logel, Christine; Walton, Gregory M; Spencer, Steven J; Iserman, Emma C; von Hippel, William; Bell, Amy E

2009-06-01

Social identity threat is the notion that one of a person's many social identities may be at risk of being devalued in a particular context (C. M. Steele, S. J. Spencer, & J. Aronson, 2002). The authors suggest that in domains in which women are already negatively stereotyped, interacting with a sexist man can trigger social identity threat, undermining women's performance. In Study 1, male engineering students who scored highly on a subtle measure of sexism behaved in a dominant and sexually interested way toward an ostensible female classmate. In Studies 2 and 3, female engineering students who interacted with such sexist men, or with confederates trained to behave in the same way, performed worse on an engineering test than did women who interacted with nonsexist men. Study 4 replicated this finding and showed that women's underperformance did not extend to an English test, an area in which women are not negatively stereotyped. Study 5 showed that interacting with sexist men leads women to suppress concerns about gender stereotypes, an established mechanism of stereotype threat. Discussion addresses implications for social identity threat and for women's performance in school and at work.

Costs and Risks of Continuous Purges for Instruments

Science.gov (United States)

Secunda, M.; De Garcia, K. Montt

2018-01-01

As instruments are built, tested, and launched, they are exposed to environments that have various levels of cleanliness. Often, Scientists and Contamination Control Engineers specify a purge to mitigate the instrument's exposure to a non-clean environment, protect sensitive optics from a specific threat, such as water, or as insurance against things going wrong in a clean environment. The cost of the purge, in effort, dollars and risk, is often understated when the requirements are being established, and the need for purge is not clearly justifiable. This paper will more clearly define some of the costs and risks associated with the continuous purging of instruments during the course of building, testing and launching instruments.

Parents' perceptions of skin cancer threat and children's physical activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Tran, Alexander D; Aalborg, Jenny; Asdigian, Nancy L; Morelli, Joseph G; Mokrohisky, Stefan T; Dellavalle, Robert P; Berwick, Marianne; Box, Neil F; Crane, Lori A

2012-01-01

Sun exposure is a major risk factor for skin cancer, but without physical activity, children are at risk of childhood obesity. The objective of this study was to explore relationships between parental perceptions of skin cancer threat, sun protection behaviors, physical activity, and body mass index (BMI) in children. This is a cross-sectional analysis nested within the Colorado Kids Sun Care Program sun safety intervention trial. In summer 2007, parent telephone interviews provided data on demographics, perceptions of skin cancer threat, sun protection behaviors, and physical activity. Physical examinations provided data on phenotype, freckling, and BMI. Data from 999 Colorado children born in 1998 were included in analysis. We used analysis of variance, Spearman's rho (ρ) correlation, and multivariable linear regression analysis to evaluate relationships with total amount of outdoor physical activity. After controlling for sex, race/ethnicity, skin color, and sun protection, regression analysis showed that each unit increase in perceived severity of nonmelanoma skin cancer was associated with a 30% increase in hours of outdoor physical activity (P = .005). Hours of outdoor physical activity were not related to perceived severity of melanoma or perceived susceptibility to skin cancer. BMI-for-age was not significantly correlated with perceptions of skin cancer threat, use of sun protection, or level of physical activity. The promotion of sun safety is not likely to inhibit physical activity. Skin cancer prevention programs should continue to promote midday sun avoidance and sun protection during outdoor activities.

IDENTIFICATION OF THE FREQUENCY AND THE INTENSITY OF THE THREATS IN THE FUNCTION OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE INFORMATION SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Željko Hutinski

2006-06-01

Full Text Available In the process of development of the security system of the information system, the risk assessment is the foundation for selection of the security measures. The reduction of the level of risk and the amount of costs depend upon the adequate selection of the security measures. The quality of the risk assessment depends upon the adequate assessment of the form and the intensity of the threats. If the forms of threats are not monitored in the business system, it should make its own threat assessment, or use experience of others. The best, but also the most time-consuming solution is to develop own security system, while the fastest way is to use experience of others. However, there is the problem of migration of some other solution to our own system. Depending upon the question whether we are adopting the experiences of domestic or foreign business systems, the question of the applicability to the system from the different business environment becomes relevant. This happens because of the significant differences in the form and intensity of threats in certain local environments or different branches of industry.

Conservation threats and the phylogenetic utility of IUCN Red List rankings in Incilius toads.

Science.gov (United States)

Schachat, Sandra R; Mulcahy, Daniel G; Mendelson, Joseph R

2016-02-01

Phylogenetic analysis of extinction threat is an emerging tool in the field of conservation. However, there are problems with the methods and data as commonly used. Phylogenetic sampling usually extends to the level of family or genus, but International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) rankings are available only for individual species, and, although different species within a taxonomic group may have the same IUCN rank, the species may have been ranked as such for different reasons. Therefore, IUCN rank may not reflect evolutionary history and thus may not be appropriate for use in a phylogenetic context. To be used appropriately, threat-risk data should reflect the cause of extinction threat rather than the IUCN threat ranking. In a case study of the toad genus Incilius, with phylogenetic sampling at the species level (so that the resolution of the phylogeny matches character data from the IUCN Red List), we analyzed causes of decline and IUCN threat rankings by calculating metrics of phylogenetic signal (such as Fritz and Purvis' D). We also analyzed the extent to which cause of decline and threat ranking overlap by calculating phylogenetic correlation between these 2 types of character data. Incilius species varied greatly in both threat ranking and cause of decline; this variability would be lost at a coarser taxonomic resolution. We found far more phylogenetic signal, likely correlated with evolutionary history, for causes of decline than for IUCN threat ranking. Individual causes of decline and IUCN threat rankings were largely uncorrelated on the phylogeny. Our results demonstrate the importance of character selection and taxonomic resolution when extinction threat is analyzed in a phylogenetic context. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Delay discounting, risk-taking, and rejection sensitivity among individuals with Internet and Video Gaming Disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstein, Aviv; Abu, Hodaya Ben; Timor, Ayelet; Mama, Yaniv

2016-12-01

Background and aims There is a previous evidence for impulsivity in individuals with Internet and Video Gaming Disorders. The aim of this study was to examine whether Internet and video game addictions are associated with experiential delay discounting, risk-taking, and sensitivity to social rejection using computerized tasks and questionnaires. Methods Twenty participants (mean age 24, SD = 1.55) with high score on the Problematic Online Gaming Questionnaire (POGQ) were compared with 20 participants (mean age 24.8, SD = 1.34) with low score on the POGQ. They performed on computerized Balloon Analog Risk Task and Experiential Delay discounting Task (EDT), and filled in the sensitivity to social rejection questionnaire. Results Participants with high POGQ scores had lower measures of delay discounting, higher measures of risk-taking, and higher measures of sensitivity to social rejection compared with participants with low POGQ scores. Discussion The results of this study support the previous evidence of risk-taking and provide new evidence for difficulties in delay discounting and sensitivity to social rejection among those who score high on Internet and video games. Conclusions The results suggest that Internet- and video game-addicted individuals seek immediate gratification and cannot wait for later reward. Furthermore, these individuals spend time in the virtual world, where they feel safe, and avoid social interactions presumably due to fears of social rejection.

Evaluative threat and ambulatory blood pressure: cardiovascular effects of social stress in daily experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Timothy W; Birmingham, Wendy; Uchino, Bert N

2012-11-01

Physiological effects of social evaluation are central in models of psychosocial influences on physical health. Experimental manipulations of evaluative threat evoke substantial cardiovascular and neuroendocrine responses in laboratory studies, but only preliminary evidence is available regarding naturally occurring evaluative threats in daily life. In such nonexperimental ambulatory studies, it is essential to distinguish effects of evaluative threat from related constructs known to alter stress, such as ability perceptions and concerns about appearance. 94 married, working couples (mean age 29.2 years) completed a 1-day (8 a.m. to 10 p.m.) ambulatory blood pressure protocol with random interval-contingent measurements using a Suntech monitor and Palm Pilot-based measures of control variables and momentary experiences of social-evaluative threat, concerns about appearance, and perceived ability. In hierarchical analyses for couples and multiple measurement occasions (Proc Mixed; SAS) and controlling individual differences (BMI, age, income) and potential confounds (e.g., posture, activity), higher reports of social-evaluative threat were associated with higher concurrent systolic (estimate = .87, SE = .34) and diastolic blood pressure (estimate = 1.06; SE = .26), both p social-evaluative threat remained significant when perceived ability and appearance concerns were controlled. Naturally occurring social-evaluative threat during daily activity is associated with increased systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Given associations between ambulatory blood pressure and risk of cardiovascular disease, the findings support conceptual models of threats to the social self as a potentially important influence on physical health.

Bio-threat microparticle simulants

Science.gov (United States)

Farquar, George Roy; Leif, Roald N

2012-10-23

A bio-threat simulant that includes a carrier and DNA encapsulated in the carrier. Also a method of making a simulant including the steps of providing a carrier and encapsulating DNA in the carrier to produce the bio-threat simulant.

Bio-threat microparticle simulants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farquar, George Roy; Leif, Roald

2014-09-16

A bio-threat simulant that includes a carrier and DNA encapsulated in the carrier. Also a method of making a simulant including the steps of providing a carrier and encapsulating DNA in the carrier to produce the bio-threat simulant.

Anxiety and Depression Symptom Dimensions Demonstrate Unique Relationships with the Startle Reflex in Anticipation of Unpredictable Threat in 8 to 14 Year-Old Girls

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Brady D.; Hajcak, Greg

2016-01-01

There is growing evidence that heightened sensitivity to unpredictability is a core mechanism of anxiety disorders. In adults, multiple anxiety disorders have been associated with a heightened startle reflex in anticipation of unpredictable threat. Child and adolescent anxiety has been linked to an increased startle reflex across baseline, safety, and threat conditions. However, it is unclear whether anxiety in youth is related to the startle reflex as a function of threat predictability. In a sample of 90 8 to 14 year-old girls, the present study examined the association between anxiety symptom dimensions and startle potentiation during a no, predictable, and unpredictable threat task. Depression symptom dimensions were also examined given their high comorbidity with anxiety and mixed relationship with the startle reflex and sensitivity to unpredictability. To assess current symptoms, participants completed the self-report Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders and Children’s Depression Inventory. Results indicated that social phobia symptoms were associated with heightened startle potentiation in anticipation of unpredictable threat and attenuated startle potentiation in anticipation of predictable threat. Negative mood and negative self-esteem symptoms were associated with attenuated and heightened startle potentiation in anticipation of unpredictable threat, respectively. All results remained significant after controlling for the other symptom dimensions. The present study provides initial evidence that anxiety and depression symptom dimensions demonstrate unique associations with the startle reflex in anticipation of unpredictable threat in children and adolescents. PMID:27224989

THE THREATS TO THE ECONOMIC SAFETY OF STAVROPOL REGION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I.V. Novikova

2009-12-01

Full Text Available The article deals with defining of threats to the economic safety of Stavropol region in food, manufacturing, infrastructural, financial, social and innovative industries of the region. Among these threats besides those relating to the Russian Federation on the whole there are also specific regional threats. They are: extremis; resource depletion; uncivilized redistribution of property; the reduction of tax potential; the destruction of the regional agro-industrial sector; the depletion of agricultural (arable land; the low level of competitiveness of processing industries; the breakdown of social welfare in rural areas; the price and tariff increases exceeding the population income growth; the increasing differentiation of population income and its poverty level; the high level of unemployment; the decline in material and technical and financial opportunities of businesses in procedure implementation and innovation mastering; the drain on workers from the region and the dismantling of sector research; the drop in all kinds of financing; the decline of research and development activities efficiency; regular lowering of domestic innovative markets; the low level of innovative infrastructure development; the availability of high investment risks; low effectiveness of carried out scientific and technological programmers and projects.

Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

2013-01-01

Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

Threats of Violence in Schools: The Dallas Independent School District's Response.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan-Arrendondo, Kim; Renouf, Kristin; Egyed, Carla; Doxey, Meredith; Dobbins, Maria; Sanchez, Serafin; Rakowitz, Bert

2001-01-01

Discusses the Dallas Public Schools' procedures for assessing the potential for violence among children who express intent to harm others. The Dallas Violence Risk Assessment (DVRA) was developed to evaluate students who have made threats of violence, and to assist school staff in determining appropriate intervention strategies. Describes the…

Future threats to biodiversity and pathways to their prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Tilman, David; Clark, Michael; Williams, David R; Kimmel, Kaitlin; Polasky, Stephen; Packer, Craig

2017-05-31

Tens of thousands of species are threatened with extinction as a result of human activities. Here we explore how the extinction risks of terrestrial mammals and birds might change in the next 50 years. Future population growth and economic development are forecasted to impose unprecedented levels of extinction risk on many more species worldwide, especially the large mammals of tropical Africa, Asia and South America. Yet these threats are not inevitable. Proactive international efforts to increase crop yields, minimize land clearing and habitat fragmentation, and protect natural lands could increase food security in developing nations and preserve much of Earth's remaining biodiversity.

Standoff Methods for the Detection of Threat Agents: A Review of Several Promising Laser-Based Techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Bruce Johnson

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Detection of explosives, explosive precursors, or other threat agents presents a number of technological challenges for optical sensing methods. Certainly detecting trace levels of threat agents against a complex background is chief among these challenges; however, the related issues of multiple target distances (from standoff to proximity and sampling time scales (from passive mines to rapid rate of march convoy protection for different applications make it unlikely that a single technique will be ideal for all sensing situations. A number of methods for spanning the range of optical sensor technologies exist which, when integrated, could produce a fused sensor system possessing a high level of sensitivity to threat agents and a moderate standoff real-time capability appropriate for portal screening of personnel or vehicles. In this work, we focus on several promising, and potentially synergistic, laser-based methods for sensing threat agents. For each method, we have briefly outlined the technique and report on the current level of capability.

Role of NDT in risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Porter, Jr. James F.

2009-01-01

Risk management is identifying and then managing threats that could severely affect or bring down a company. This involves reviewing the operations of the company to include the process, equipment, procedures and personnel. Potential threats are then identified including their probability of occurrence, and then taking appropriate actions to address the most likely threats. Traditionally, risk management was thought of as mostly getting the right insurance. However, this impression of risk management has changed dramatically. With the recent increase in rules and regulations and optimizing utilization of key resources, risk management is becoming a management practice that is as important as financial or facilities management. In ideal risk management, a prioritization process is followed whereby the risks with the greatest loss and greatest probability of occurring are handled first, and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower loss are handled in descending order. In practice the process can be very difficult, and balancing between risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss versus a risk with high but lower probability of occurrence can often be mishandled. (author)

Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Weir, Scott M; Suski, Jamie G; Salice, Christopher J

2010-12-01

A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk to researchers in qualitative research on sensitive topics: issues and strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Dickson-Swift, Virginia; James, Erica L; Kippen, Sandra; Liamputtong, Pranee

2008-01-01

Traditionally, risk assessments in research have been limited to examining the risks to the research participants. Although doing so is appropriate and important, there is growing recognition that undertaking research can pose risks to researchers as well. A grounded theory study involving a range of researchers who had undertaken qualitative health research on a sensitive topic was completed. Analysis of the in-depth, face-to-face unstructured individual interviews with 30 Australian public health researchers provided evidence that researchers do confront a number of physical and emotional risks when undertaking research. Training, preparation, and supervision must be taken into account so that the risk to researchers can be minimized. Researchers need to consider occupational health and safety issues in designing research projects that deal with physical and emotional risks. Recommendations for professional supervision, policy development, and minimum training standards for researchers are provided.

The effects of insulin sensitizers on the cardiovascular risk factors in women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Kassi, E; Diamanti-Kandarakis, E

2008-12-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine disorder in pre-menopausal women characterized by menstrual cycle disturbances, chronic anovulation, and clinical and/or biochemical hyperandrogenism. Although, the primary etiology of PCOS remains unknown, insulin resistance/hyperinsulinemia plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of the syndrome. A growing body of recent data support that women with PCOS have displayed an increased prevelance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors putting potentially at a hight risk for heart disease. Most of these CVD risk factors are etiologically correlated with insulin resistance/hyperinsulinemia, highlighting the role of insulin sensitizers in the therapeutic quiver for the chronic treatment of PCOS. In this review, we discuss the current literature on the CVD risk factors in PCOS and the influence of insulin sensitizers upon these risk factors.

Max-Plus Stochastic Control and Risk-Sensitivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, Wendell H.; Kaise, Hidehiro; Sheu, Shuenn-Jyi

2010-01-01

In the Maslov idempotent probability calculus, expectations of random variables are defined so as to be linear with respect to max-plus addition and scalar multiplication. This paper considers control problems in which the objective is to minimize the max-plus expectation of some max-plus additive running cost. Such problems arise naturally as limits of some types of risk sensitive stochastic control problems. The value function is a viscosity solution to a quasivariational inequality (QVI) of dynamic programming. Equivalence of this QVI to a nonlinear parabolic PDE with discontinuous Hamiltonian is used to prove a comparison theorem for viscosity sub- and super-solutions. An example from mathematical finance is given, and an application in nonlinear H-infinity control is sketched.

Estimation of Radiological Terrorism Risk by Administrative Districts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Suk Hoon; Kim, Ju Youl [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yoo, Ho Sik [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2008-10-15

Since the 9/11 attack in USA, the threat of terrorism across the world has dramatically increased. Accordingly, estimating terrorism risk has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies throughout the world. There are many forms of terrorism. Recently, the prospect of the radiological terrorist attack using the radioactive material is considered as one of the most serious threats. The aim of this paper is to assess the radiological terrorism risk by administrative districts based on the parameters that imply threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks.

Estimation of Radiological Terrorism Risk by Administrative Districts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Suk Hoon; Kim, Ju Youl; Yoo, Ho Sik

2008-01-01

Since the 9/11 attack in USA, the threat of terrorism across the world has dramatically increased. Accordingly, estimating terrorism risk has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies throughout the world. There are many forms of terrorism. Recently, the prospect of the radiological terrorist attack using the radioactive material is considered as one of the most serious threats. The aim of this paper is to assess the radiological terrorism risk by administrative districts based on the parameters that imply threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks

Prototyping of CBRN threat assessment system. Phase 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ina, Shinichiro; Suzuki, Tomoyuki; Maeno, Akihiro; Sakaue, Motoki

2015-01-01

Recently, chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats, that is, CBRN threats have emerged. In order to support the Japan Self Defense Forces unit coping with the CBRN threats, it is important to take measures against these invisible threats. Our CBRN threat assessment system will make invisible CBRN threats visible. This report describes a prototyping of the CBRN threat assessment system (PHASE 1) carried out from fiscal year 2012-2014. (author)

Psychoanalysis and the nuclear threat

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Levine, H.B.; Jacobs, D.; Rubin, L.J.

1988-01-01

{ital Psychoanalysis and the Nuclear Threat} provides coverage of the dynamic and clinical considerations that follow from life in the nuclear age. Of special clinical interest are chapters dealing with the developmental consequences of the nuclear threat in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, and those exploring the technical issues raised by the occurrence in analytic and psychotherapeutic hours of material related to the nuclear threat. Additional chapters bring a psychoanalytic perspective to bear on such issues as the need to have enemies, silence as the real crime, love, work, and survival in the nuclear age, the relationship of the nuclear threat to issues of mourning and melancholia, apocalyptic fantasies, the paranoid process, considerations of the possible impact of gender on the nuclear threat, and the application of psychoanalytic thinking to nuclear arms strategy. Finally, the volume includes the first case report in the English language---albeit a brief psychotherapy---involving the treatment of a Hiroshima survivor.

Patterns in response to chronic terrorism threats: A construct of emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses among Israeli citizens.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen-Louck, Keren; Saka, Yael

2017-10-01

Israeli citizens are exposed to unpredictable and chronic terrorism threats that significantly jeopardize their personal sense of safety. The purpose of the present study is to present how Israeli discourse is structured with regard to emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses to chronic terrorism threats and to understand the range of responses as well as map the risk and protective factors of this existential threat. Semistructured in-depth interviews were conducted with 40 Israeli adults (22 women and 18 men). Qualitative analysis revealed three patterns of responses to ongoing terrorism: emotional, cognitive, and behavioral. Emotional responses include fear, worry, sense of empathy, and detachment. Cognitive responses include situational assessment and pursuit of solutions, the use of traumatic imagining, beliefs in fate and luck, and optimism. Behavioral responses include looking for information, alertness, and habituation. The findings also revealed another response, which combines cognitive and behavioral responses. Some of the responses are innovative and unique to the threat of terrorism. Mapping the responses revealed mental health risk factors, as well as protective factors that can help structure personal and national resilience. These findings have implications on the treatment and prevention of personal and social pathologies, and how to effectively cope with terrorism threats. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Culture, threat, and mental illness stigma: identifying culture-specific threat among Chinese-American groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Lawrence H; Purdie-Vaughns, Valerie; Kotabe, Hiroki; Link, Bruce G; Saw, Anne; Wong, Gloria; Phelan, Jo C

2013-07-01

We incorporate anthropological insights into a stigma framework to elucidate the role of culture in threat perception and stigma among Chinese groups. Prior work suggests that genetic contamination that jeopardizes the extension of one's family lineage may comprise a culture-specific threat among Chinese groups. In Study 1, a national survey conducted from 2002 to 2003 assessed cultural differences in mental illness stigma and perceptions of threat in 56 Chinese-Americans and 589 European-Americans. Study 2 sought to empirically test this culture-specific threat of genetic contamination to lineage via a memory paradigm. Conducted from June to August 2010, 48 Chinese-American and 37 European-American university students in New York City read vignettes containing content referring to lineage or non-lineage concerns. Half the participants in each ethnic group were assigned to a condition in which the illness was likely to be inherited (genetic condition) and the rest read that the illness was unlikely to be inherited (non-genetic condition). Findings from Study 1 and 2 were convergent. In Study 1, culture-specific threat to lineage predicted cultural variation in stigma independently and after accounting for other forms of threat. In Study 2, Chinese-Americans in the genetic condition were more likely to accurately recall and recognize lineage content than the Chinese-Americans in the non-genetic condition, but that memorial pattern was not found for non-lineage content. The identification of this culture-specific threat among Chinese groups has direct implications for culturally-tailored anti-stigma interventions. Further, this framework might be implemented across other conditions and cultural groups to reduce stigma across cultures. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensor-guided threat countermeasure system

Science.gov (United States)

Stuart, Brent C.; Hackel, Lloyd A.; Hermann, Mark R.; Armstrong, James P.

2012-12-25

A countermeasure system for use by a target to protect against an incoming sensor-guided threat. The system includes a laser system for producing a broadband beam and means for directing the broadband beam from the target to the threat. The countermeasure system comprises the steps of producing a broadband beam and directing the broad band beam from the target to blind or confuse the incoming sensor-guided threat.

Patterns of aeroallergen sensitization predicting risk for asthma in preschool children with atopic dermatitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Calamelli, Elisabetta; Ricci, Giampaolo; Neri, Iria; Ricci, Lorenza; Rondelli, Roberto; Pession, Andrea; Patrizi, Annalisa

2015-06-01

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic inflammatory skin disorder mostly affecting young children. Although several studies aimed to identify the risk factors for asthma in AD children, many aspects still need to be clarified. The aim of this study was to investigate the possible risk factors for asthma at school age in 99 children with early-onset and IgE-mediated AD. All children performed clinical evaluation and total and specific IgE assay for a panel of inhalant and food allergens at two different times (t1 and t2) during preschool, and asthma diagnosis was assessed at one follow-up visit (t3) at school age. At t3, 39% of children had developed asthma. Of the variables compared, the sensitization to more than one class of inhalant allergens at t2 (mean age = 30 months) was associated with asthma, with grass (OR = 3.24, p = 0.020) and cat sensitization (OR = 2.74, p = 0.043) as independent risk factors. The sensitization pattern of a child with early-onset AD, also within the first 2-3 years of life, can reflect his risk to develop asthma. Therefore, testing these children for the more common allergens during this time frame should be recommended to predict the evolution of atopic diseases.

Cyber security: a critical examination of information sharing versus data sensitivity issues for organisations at risk of cyber attack.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallinder, Jason; Drabwell, Peter

Cyber threats are growing and evolving at an unprecedented rate.Consequently, it is becoming vitally important that organisations share information internally and externally before, during and after incidents they encounter so that lessons can be learned, good practice identified and new cyber resilience capabilities developed. Many organisations are reluctant to share such information for fear of divulging sensitive information or because it may be vague or incomplete. This provides organisations with a complex dilemma: how to share information as openly as possibly about cyber incidents, while protecting their confidentiality and focusing on service recovery from such incidents. This paper explores the dilemma of information sharing versus sensitivity and provides a practical overview of considerations every business continuity plan should address to plan effectively for information sharing in the event of a cyber incident.

Security Requirements for New Threats at International Airports

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel Nowacki

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The paper refers to security requirements for new threats international airports, taking specifically into consideration current challenges within processing of passengers, in light of types of current major threats, in a way ensuring positive passenger experience within their journey. In addition, within the scope of this paper, presented initial outcome of study research among professional aviation stakeholder?s environment, on current threats in the area of security and protection of airport infrastructure. The airports are a very demanding environment: seasonal traffic, fluctuating passenger volumes and last minute changes mean there is a lot of flexibility required in order to meet specific needs of airport authorities and their clients or the passengers (Dolnik, 2009. Therefore, security in aviation sector has been a big issue for civil aviation authorities, as airports are susceptible targets for terrorist attacks. The list of incidents is extensive and gets longer every year despite strict security measures. Within decades, aviation has become the backbone of our global economy bringing people to business, tourists to vacation destinations and products to markets. Statistically flying remains the safest mode of travelling compared to other modes of transportation. However, simultaneously terrorists and criminals continue in their quest to explore new ways of disrupting air transportation and the challenge to secure airports and airline assets remain real. This calls for greater awareness of security concerns in the aviation sector. The key element, how to protects against terrorist modus operandi, is to stay ahead of recent threats, incidents and breaches occurring worldwide. It requires implementation of effective data sharing systems, in order to proactively monitor potential risks and vulnerabilities within different type of aviation ecosystems.

Liquidity Risk Sensitivity of Czech Commercial Banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavla Vodová

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The recent financial crisis has shown that a liquidity risk plays an important role in the current developed financial system. One of the efficient tools of liquidity risk management is stress testing which can show banks their potential vulnerability to liquidity shocks. The aim of this paper is therefore to measure the liquidity risk sensitivity of Czech commercial banks and to find out the most severe scenario and the most vulnerable bank. Our sample included significant part of the Czech banking sector; we used unconsolidated balance sheet data over the period from 2000 to 2011 which were obtained from annual reports of Czech banks. We have evaluated liquidity risk of each bank in the sample via six different liquidity ratios. Then we stressed these baseline values in three stress scenarios: run on a bank (simulated by a 20% withdrawal of deposits, confidence crisis on the interbank market (simulated by a withdrawal of 20% of interbank deposits and use of committed loans by counterparties (simulated by a 5% increase of loans provided to nonbank clients. We measured the impact of all scenarios by relative change of liquidity ratios. The impact of modelled liquidity shocks differs among scenarios. The most serious liquidity problems would be caused by the first scenario – run on a bank. The negative influence of third scenario (use of committed loans is less severe. The confidence crisis on the interbank market would not affect bank liquidity at all. The results also show that the severity of the impact of all scenarios worsens in periods of financial distress. We have also found that large and medium sized banks are most vulnerable to liquidity shocks, mainly to massive deposit withdrawals.

Anxiety and Depression Symptom Dimensions Demonstrate Unique Relationships with the Startle Reflex in Anticipation of Unpredictable Threat in 8 to 14 Year-Old Girls.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Brady D; Hajcak, Greg

2017-02-01

There is growing evidence that heightened sensitivity to unpredictability is a core mechanism of anxiety disorders. In adults, multiple anxiety disorders have been associated with a heightened startle reflex in anticipation of unpredictable threat. Child and adolescent anxiety has been linked to an increased startle reflex across baseline, safety, and threat conditions. However, it is unclear whether anxiety in youth is related to the startle reflex as a function of threat predictability. In a sample of 90 8 to 14 year-old girls, the present study examined the association between anxiety symptom dimensions and startle potentiation during a no, predictable, and unpredictable threat task. Depression symptom dimensions were also examined given their high comorbidity with anxiety and mixed relationship with the startle reflex and sensitivity to unpredictability. To assess current symptoms, participants completed the self-report Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders and Children's Depression Inventory. Results indicated that social phobia symptoms were associated with heightened startle potentiation in anticipation of unpredictable threat and attenuated startle potentiation in anticipation of predictable threat. Negative mood and negative self-esteem symptoms were associated with attenuated and heightened startle potentiation in anticipation of unpredictable threat, respectively. All results remained significant after controlling for the other symptom dimensions. The present study provides initial evidence that anxiety and depression symptom dimensions demonstrate unique associations with the startle reflex in anticipation of unpredictable threat in children and adolescents.

A Pilot Study on Developing a Standardized and Sensitive School Violence Risk Assessment with Manual Annotation.

Science.gov (United States)

Barzman, Drew H; Ni, Yizhao; Griffey, Marcus; Patel, Bianca; Warren, Ashaki; Latessa, Edward; Sorter, Michael

2017-09-01

School violence has increased over the past decade and innovative, sensitive, and standardized approaches to assess school violence risk are needed. In our current feasibility study, we initialized a standardized, sensitive, and rapid school violence risk approach with manual annotation. Manual annotation is the process of analyzing a student's transcribed interview to extract relevant information (e.g., key words) to school violence risk levels that are associated with students' behaviors, attitudes, feelings, use of technology (social media and video games), and other activities. In this feasibility study, we first implemented school violence risk assessments to evaluate risk levels by interviewing the student and parent separately at the school or the hospital to complete our novel school safety scales. We completed 25 risk assessments, resulting in 25 transcribed interviews of 12-18 year olds from 15 schools in Ohio and Kentucky. We then analyzed structured professional judgments, language, and patterns associated with school violence risk levels by using manual annotation and statistical methodology. To analyze the student interviews, we initiated the development of an annotation guideline to extract key information that is associated with students' behaviors, attitudes, feelings, use of technology and other activities. Statistical analysis was applied to associate the significant categories with students' risk levels to identify key factors which will help with developing action steps to reduce risk. In a future study, we plan to recruit more subjects in order to fully develop the manual annotation which will result in a more standardized and sensitive approach to school violence assessments.

Behavioral Approach System Sensitivity and Risk Taking Interact to Predict Left-Frontal EEG Asymmetry

OpenAIRE

Black, Chelsea L.; Goldstein, Kim E.; LaBelle, Denise R.; Brown, Christopher W.; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2014-01-01

The Behavioral Approach System (BAS) hypersensitivity theory of bipolar disorder (BD; Alloy & Abramson, 2010; Depue & Iacono, 1989) suggests that hyperreactivity in the BAS results in the extreme fluctuations of mood characteristic of BD. In addition to risk conferred by BAS hypersensitivity, cognitive and personality variables may play a role in determining risk. We evaluated relationships among BAS sensitivity, risk taking, and an electrophysiological correlate of approach motivation, relat...

Parental risk management in relation to offspring defence: bad news for kids.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahr, Katharina; Riegler, Georg; Hoi, Herbert

2015-01-07

Do parents defend their offspring whenever necessary, and do self-sacrificing parents really exist? Studies recognized that parent defence is dynamic, mainly depending on the threat predators pose. In this context, parental risk management should consider the threat to themselves and to their offspring. Consequently, the observed defence should be a composite of both risk components. Surprisingly, no study so far has determined the influence of these two threat components on parental decision rules. In a field experiment, we investigated parental risk taking in relation to the threat posed to themselves and their offspring. To disentangle the two threat components, we examined defence behaviours of parent blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus towards three different predators and during different nestling developmental stages. Nest defence strategies in terms of alarm call intensity and nearest predator approach differed between the three predators. Defence intensity was only partly explained by threat level. Most importantly, parental risk management varied in relation to their own, but not offspring risk. Parent defence investment was independent of nestling risk when parents followed a high-risk strategy. However, parents considered nestling as well as parental risk when following a low-risk strategy. Our findings could have general implications for the economy of risk management and decision-making strategies in living beings, including humans. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Neural circuitry governing anxious individuals' mis-allocation of working memory to threat.

Science.gov (United States)

Stout, Daniel M; Shackman, Alexander J; Pedersen, Walker S; Miskovich, Tara A; Larson, Christine L

2017-08-18

Dispositional anxiety is a trait-like phenotype that confers increased risk for a range of debilitating neuropsychiatric disorders. Like many patients with anxiety disorders, individuals with elevated levels of dispositional anxiety are prone to intrusive and distressing thoughts in the absence of immediate threat. Recent electrophysiological research suggests that these symptoms are rooted in the mis-allocation of working memory (WM) resources to threat-related information. Here, functional MRI was used to identify the network of brain regions that support WM for faces and to quantify the allocation of neural resources to threat-related distracters in 81 young adults. Results revealed widespread evidence of mis-allocation. This was evident in both face-selective regions of the fusiform cortex and domain-general regions of the prefrontal and parietal cortices. This bias was exaggerated among individuals with a more anxious disposition. Mediation analyses provided compelling evidence that anxious individuals' tendency to mis-allocate WM resources to threat-related distracters is statistically explained by heightened amygdala reactivity. Collectively, these results provide a neurocognitive framework for understanding the pathways linking anxious phenotypes to the development of internalizing psychopathology and set the stage for developing improved intervention strategies.

Autobiographical memory sources of threats in dreams.

Science.gov (United States)

Lafrenière, Alexandre; Lortie-Lussier, Monique; Dale, Allyson; Robidoux, Raphaëlle; De Koninck, Joseph

2018-02-01

Temporal sources of dream threats were examined through the paradigm of the Threat Simulation Theory. Two groups of young adults (18-24 years old), who did not experience severe threatening events in the year preceding their dream and reported a dream either with or without threats, were included. Participants (N = 119) kept a log of daily activities and a dream diary, indicating whether dream components referred to past experiences. The occurrence of oneiric threats correlated with the reporting of threats in the daily logs, their average severity, and the stress level experienced the day preceding the dream. The group whose dreams contained threats had significantly more references to temporal categories beyond one year than the group with dreams without threats. Our findings suggest that in the absence of recent highly negative emotional experiences, the threat simulation system selects memory traces of threatening events experienced in the past. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk-taking propensity and sensitivity to punishment in adolescents with attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder symptoms and/or reading disability.

Science.gov (United States)

Poon, Kean; Ho, Connie Suk-Han

2016-01-01

Many studies reported that adolescents with ADHD/RD more frequently engage in risk-taking behaviors. Very few have examined their risk taking patterns and the impact of their comorbidity. The present study compared the risk-taking propensity, sensitivity to punishment and delinquency outcome in Chinese adolescents with ADHD symptoms (AS) and/or RD using a simulated risk task, the Balloon Analogous Risk Task (BART). Adolescents with AS (n=37), RD (n=35), AS+RD (n=35), and control (n=36) were recruited from local secondary schools. Results showed that adolescents with ADHD, despite their great risk-taking propensity, were sensitive to immediate punishment whereas adolescents with RD were found to display normal risk-taking propensity, yet showed a tendency of being less sensitive to punishment. The comorbidity ADHD+RD group had the highest delinquency score, and exhibited greatest risk taking and least sensitivity to punishment, which provided further support that comorbid condition might have stronger impact on risk taking or even delinquency than the pure groups. The present findings provides a useful picture of the risk taking pattern associated with different groups, allowing for effective matching for future prevention and intervention program. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Operational Choices for Risk Aggregation in Insurance: PSDization and SCR Sensitivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xavier Milhaud

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This work addresses crucial questions about the robustness of the PSDization process for applications in insurance. PSDization refers to the process that forces a matrix to become positive semidefinite. For companies using copulas to aggregate risks in their internal model, PSDization occurs when working with correlation matrices to compute the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR. We examine how classical operational choices concerning the modelling of risk dependence impacts the SCR during PSDization. These operations refer to the permutations of risks (or business lines in the correlation matrix, the addition of a new risk, and the introduction of confidence weights given to the correlation coefficients. The use of genetic algorithms shows that theoretically neutral transformations of the correlation matrix can surprisingly lead to significant sensitivities of the SCR (up to 6%. This highlights the need for a very strong internal control around the PSDization step.

Threat perception after the Boston Marathon bombings: The effects of personal relevance and conceptual framing.

Science.gov (United States)

Wormwood, Jolie Baumann; Lynn, Spencer K; Feldman Barrett, Lisa; Quigley, Karen S

2016-01-01

We examined how the Boston Marathon bombings affected threat perception in the Boston community. In a threat perception task, participants attempted to "shoot" armed targets and avoid shooting unarmed targets. Participants viewing images of the bombings accompanied by affectively negative music and text (e.g., "Terror Strikes Boston") made more false alarms (i.e., more errors "shooting" unarmed targets) compared to participants viewing the same images accompanied by affectively positive music and text (e.g., "Boston Strong") and participants who did not view bombing images. This difference appears to be driven by decreased sensitivity (i.e., decreased ability to distinguish guns from non-guns) as opposed to a more liberal bias (i.e., favouring the "shoot" response). Additionally, the more strongly affected the participant was by the bombings, the more their sensitivity was reduced in the negatively framed condition, suggesting that this framing was particularly detrimental to the most vulnerable individuals in the affected community.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Lewandowski, Beth; Myers, Jerry; Sibonga, Jean Diane

2017-01-01

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including

Enviromentally sensitive patch index of desertification risk applied to the main habitats of Sicily

Science.gov (United States)

Duro, A.; Piccione, V.; Ragusa, M. A.; Rapicavoli, V.; Veneziano, V.

2017-07-01

The authors applied the MEDALUS - Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use - procedure to the most representative sicilian habitat by extension, socio-economic and environmental importance, in order to assess the risk of desertification. Thanks to the ESPI, Environmentally Sensitive Patch Index, in this paper the authors estimate the current and future regional levels of desertification risk.

Using citizen science data to identify the sensitivity of species to human land use.

Science.gov (United States)

Todd, Brian D; Rose, Jonathan P; Price, Steven J; Dorcas, Michael E

2016-12-01

Conservation practitioners must contend with an increasing array of threats that affect biodiversity. Citizen scientists can provide timely and expansive information for addressing these threats across large scales, but their data may contain sampling biases. We used randomization procedures to account for possible sampling biases in opportunistically reported citizen science data to identify species' sensitivities to human land use. We analyzed 21,044 records of 143 native reptile and amphibian species reported to the Carolina Herp Atlas from North Carolina and South Carolina between 1 January 1990 and 12 July 2014. Sensitive species significantly associated with natural landscapes were 3.4 times more likely to be legally protected or treated as of conservation concern by state resource agencies than less sensitive species significantly associated with human-dominated landscapes. Many of the species significantly associated with natural landscapes occurred primarily in habitats that had been nearly eradicated or otherwise altered in the Carolinas, including isolated wetlands, longleaf pine savannas, and Appalachian forests. Rare species with few reports were more likely to be associated with natural landscapes and 3.2 times more likely to be legally protected or treated as of conservation concern than species with at least 20 reported occurrences. Our results suggest that opportunistically reported citizen science data can be used to identify sensitive species and that species currently restricted primarily to natural landscapes are likely at greatest risk of decline from future losses of natural habitat. Our approach demonstrates the usefulness of citizen science data in prioritizing conservation and in helping practitioners address species declines and extinctions at large extents. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List.

Science.gov (United States)

Trull, Nicholas; Böhm, Monika; Carr, Jamie

2018-02-01

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List

Observed Sensitivity during Family Interactions and Cumulative Risk: A Study of Multiple Dyads per Family

Science.gov (United States)

Browne, Dillon T.; Leckie, George; Prime, Heather; Perlman, Michal; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

2016-01-01

The present study sought to investigate the family, individual, and dyad-specific contributions to observed cognitive sensitivity during family interactions. Moreover, the influence of cumulative risk on sensitivity at the aforementioned levels of the family was examined. Mothers and 2 children per family were observed interacting in a round robin…

Inclusion of Premeditated Threats in the Safety Methodology for NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levanon, I.

2014-01-01

During the last decade the global effort to prevent terrorism or to mitigate its harm, if prevention fails, has increased. The nuclear power community was involved in this effort trying to prevent terrorist attacks on NPPs (Nuclear Power Plants). A natural extension of terror restraining is the prevention of any premeditated damage to the plant, including acts of state. The pre-feasibility study of an Israeli NPP, conducted by the Ministry of National Infrastructures, has identified the risk of hostile damage to the NPP as a major obstacle to the establishment of nuclear power in Israel, second only to the refusal of nuclear exporting nations to sell an NPP to Israelv. The General Director of the Ministry and the Head of the IAEC (Israeli Atomic Energy Commission) have approved continuation of the pre-feasibility study. This synopsis presents a study, regarding premeditated threats to NPPs, commissioned by the Ministry of National Infrastructures as part of the continuation. It focuses on the safety aspect of premeditated threats originating outside the plant, although a significant part of the analysis can be extended to other subjects such as theft or diversion of strategic materials. The study deals only with methodology and does not encompass specific threats or protection measures. Conclusions and recommendations and marked by bold italics Arial font. The theory of nuclear safety regarding non-premeditated safety events (equipment failures, human errors, natural events, etc.) is well developed. The study refers to these events and the theory attached to them as c lassical , distinguishing them from premeditated events. The study defines two postulates, related to premeditated threats: Correspondence – We should adopt the classical methodology whenever possible. Regulation – The safety of an NPP from premeditated threats requires examination, approval and inspection by a regulator. Key issues of the methodology with substantial differences from the

Sensitivity of Risk-Based Maintenance Planning of Offshore Wind Turbine Farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ambühl, Simon; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2017-01-01

Inspection and maintenance expenses cover a considerable part of the cost of energy from offshore wind turbines. Risk-based maintenance planning approaches are a powerful tool to optimize maintenance and inspection actions and decrease the total maintenance expenses. Risk-based planning is based...... on many input parameters, which are in reality often not completely known. This paper will assess the cost impact of this incomplete knowledge based on a case study following risk-based maintenance planning. The sensitivity study focuses on weather forecast uncertainties, incomplete knowledge about...... the needed repair time on the site as well as uncertainties about the operational range of the boat and helicopter used to access the broken wind turbine. The cost saving potential is estimated by running Crude Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, corrective and preventive (scheduled and condition...

Specifying risk management standard for flood risk assessment: a framework for resources allocation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunika Anastasia

2017-01-01

Full Text Available General risk management standard, e.g. ISO 31000:2009, approaches risk as a coin with a pair of two sides, i.e. the threat and the opportunity. However, it is hardly the case of flood events which mainly come as threats. Despite the contrary, this study explores the potential applicability of the available risk management standards specifically for flood. It then also synthesizes the components to result a framework for allocating resources among various strategies to result the optimum flood risk reduction. In order to review its applicability, the framework is then reviewed using several historic flood risk reduction cases. Its results are qualitatively discussed and summarized including the possible improvement of the framework for further applications.

Disease-threat model explains acceptance of genetically modified products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prokop Pavol

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Natural selection favoured survival of individuals who were able to avoid disease. The behavioural immune system is activated especially when our sensory system comes into contact with disease-connoting cues and/or when these cues resemble disease threat. We investigated whether or not perception of modern risky technologies, risky behaviour, expected reproductive goals and food neophobia are associated with the behavioural immune system related to specific attitudes toward genetically modified (GM products. We found that respondents who felt themselves more vulnerable to infectious diseases had significantly more negative attitudes toward GM products. Females had less positive attitudes toward GM products, but engaging in risky behaviours, the expected reproductive goals of females and food neophobia did not predict attitudes toward GM products. Our results suggest that evolved psychological mechanisms primarily designed to protect us against pathogen threat are activated by modern technologies possessing potential health risks.

The Threat of Sexism in a STEM Educational Setting: The Moderating Impacts of Ethnicity and Legitimacy Beliefs on Test Performance

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Laurie T.; Garcia, Donna M.; Adams, Glenn; Villalobos, J. Guillermo; Hammer, Elliott; Gilbert, Patricia

2015-01-01

Social identity threat has negative consequences for women in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. The present study examined whether legitimacy beliefs--beliefs that status differences between men and women in STEM fields are fair--put women at risk for experiencing social identity threat and poorer performance on a…

Threat in Context: School Moderation of the Impact of Social Identity Threat on Racial/Ethnic Achievement Gaps

Science.gov (United States)

Hanselman, Paul; Bruch, Sarah K.; Gamoran, Adam; Borman, Geoffrey D.

2014-01-01

Schools with very few and relatively low-performing marginalized students may be most likely to trigger social identity threats (including stereotype threats) that contribute to racial disparities. We test this hypothesis by assessing variation in the benefits of a self-affirmation intervention designed to counteract social identity threat in a…

Threats: power, family mealtimes, and social influence.

Science.gov (United States)

Hepburn, Alexa; Potter, Jonathan

2011-03-01

One of the most basic topics in social psychology is the way one agent influences the behaviour of another. This paper will focus on threats, which are an intensified form of attempted behavioural influence. Despite the centrality to the project of social psychology, little attention has been paid to threats. This paper will start to rectify this oversight. It reviews early examples of the way social psychology handles threats and highlights key limitations and presuppositions about the nature and role of threats. By contrast, we subject them to a programme of empirical research. Data comprise video records of a collection of family mealtimes that include preschool children. Threats are recurrent in this material. A preliminary conceptualization of features of candidate threats from this corpus will be used as an analytic start point. A series of examples are used to explicate basic features and dimensions that build the action of threatening. The basic structure of the threats uses a conditional logic: if the recipient continues problem action/does not initiate required action then negative consequences will be produced by the speaker. Further analysis clarifies how threats differ from warnings and admonishments. Sequential analysis suggests threats set up basic response options of compliance or defiance. However, recipients of threats can evade these options by, for example, reworking the unpleasant upshot specified in the threat, or producing barely minimal compliance. The implications for broader social psychological concerns are explored in a discussion of power, resistance, and asymmetry; the paper ends by reconsidering the way social influence can be studied in social psychology. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Anxiety sensitivity and suicide risk among firefighters: A test of the depression-distress amplification model.

Science.gov (United States)

Stanley, Ian H; Smith, Lia J; Boffa, Joseph W; Tran, Jana K; Schmidt, N Brad; Joiner, Thomas E; Vujanovic, Anka A

2018-04-07

Firefighters represent an occupational group at increased suicide risk. How suicidality develops among firefighters is poorly understood. The depression-distress amplification model posits that the effects of depression symptoms on suicide risk will be intensified in the context of anxiety sensitivity (AS) cognitive concerns. The current study tested this model among firefighters. Overall, 831 firefighters participated (mean [SD] age = 38.37 y [8.53 y]; 94.5% male; 75.2% White). The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), Anxiety Sensitivity Index-3 (ASI-3), and Suicidal Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised (SBQ-R) were utilized to assess for depression symptoms, AS concerns (cognitive, physical, social), and suicide risk, respectively. Linear regression interaction models were tested. The effects of elevated depression symptoms on increased suicide risk were augmented when AS cognitive concerns were also elevated. Unexpectedly, depression symptoms also interacted with AS social concerns; however, consistent with expectations, depression symptoms did not interact with AS physical concerns in the prediction of suicide risk. In the context of elevated depression symptoms, suicide risk is potentiated among firefighters reporting elevated AS cognitive and AS social concerns. Findings support and extend the depression-distress amplification model of suicide risk within a sample of firefighters. Interventions that successfully impact AS concerns may, in turn, mitigate suicide risk among this at-risk population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The air's got to be far cleaner here: a discursive analysis of place-identity threat.

Science.gov (United States)

Hugh-Jones, Siobhan; Madill, Anna

2009-12-01

That talk is never disinterested complicates the relationship between the environment and the claims people make about it. Talk about place, and one's self in it, is particularly complex when the environment poses risk or is otherwise problematized. This study, a secondary analysis of interview data, seeks to extend discursive work on place-identity by examining the ways in which 14 residents of a small English village talk about themselves and their locale. The locale accommodates an active quarry, and many residents had lodged complaints to the quarry about dust, noise and vibrations from blasting. Attention to the interactional context of the interviews illustrates the ways in which (simply) interviewing people about their locale can threaten self- and place-identity. When asked about life in the village, interviewees oriented to two main dilemmas in protecting self- and place-identity: (1) how to justify continued residence in a challenging environment and (2) how to complain about the locale whilst maintaining positive place-identity. Discursive responses to these dilemmas drew upon typical identity processes, such as self- and place distinctiveness and the formulation of out-groups, as well as upon constructions of localized power-sharing and morally obligated tolerance of risk. We suggest that research on problematical places, and of environmental risk, needs to be sensitized to how it may constitute a threat to self- and place-identity, and how this may mediate formulations self and place, as well as of environmental risk.

Fear, threat and efficacy in threat appeals: Message involvement as a key mediator to message acceptance

OpenAIRE

Cauberghe, Verolien; De Pelsmacker, Patrick; JANSSENS, Wim; Dens, Nathalie

2009-01-01

In a sample of 170 youngsters, the effect of two versions of a public service announcement (PSA) threat appeal against speeding, placed in four different contexts. on evoked fear, perceived threat (severity and probability of occurrence), perceived response efficacy and self-efficacy, message involvement and anti-speeding attitude and anti-speeding intention is investigated. Evoked fear and perceived threat and efficacy independently influence message involvement...

Major threats of pollution and climate change to global coastal ecosystems and enhanced management for sustainability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lu, Y.; Yuan, J.; Lu, X.; Su, Chao; Zhang, Y.; Wang, C.; Cao, X.; Li, Q.; Su, Jilan; Ittekkot, Venugopalan; Garbutt, Richard Angus; Bush, S.R.; Fletcher, Stephen; Wagey, Tonny; Kachur, Anatolii; Sweijd, Neville

2018-01-01

Coastal zone is of great importance in the provision of various valuable ecosystem services. However, it is also sensitive and vulnerable to environmental changes due to high human populations and interactions between the land and ocean. Major threats of pollution from over enrichment of nutrients,

Effect of evaluation threat on procrastination behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Bui, Ngoc H

2007-06-01

The author evaluated the effects of evaluation apprehension and trait procrastination on behaviors. The author examined private university students from southern California (N = 72) on two independent variables: evaluation threat (manipulated) and trait procrastination (nonmanipulated). The author found a significant interaction effect between type of evaluation threat and level of trait procrastination on the number of days to complete an assigned essay. Post hoc analyses showed high trait procrastinators in the high evaluation threat group significantly delayed returning essays compared with those in the low evaluation threat group. Also, in the low evaluation threat group, low trait procrastinators delayed more than did high trait procrastinators. These results suggest that educators can reduce behavioral delays by increasing evaluation threat, depending on a student's level of trait procrastination.

Does imminent threat capture and hold attention?

Science.gov (United States)

Koster, Ernst H W; Crombez, Geert; Van Damme, Stefaan; Verschuere, Bruno; De Houwer, Jan

2004-09-01

According to models of attention and emotion, threat captures and holds attention. In behavioral tasks, robust evidence has been found for attentional holding but not for attentional capture by threat. An important explanation for the absence of attentional capture effects is that the visual stimuli used posed no genuine threat. The present study investigated whether visual cues that signal an aversive white noise can elicit attentional capture and holding effects. Cues presented in an attentional task were simultaneously provided with a threat value through an aversive conditioning procedure. Response latencies showed that threatening cues captured and held attention. These results support recent views on attention to threat, proposing that imminent threat captures attention in everyone. (c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved

Sensitive maintenance: a cognitive process underlying individual differences in memory for threatening information.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Jan H; Hock, Michael; Krohne, Heinz Walter

2012-01-01

Dispositional styles of coping with threat influence memory for threatening information. In particular, sensitizers excel over repressors in their memory for threatening information after long retention intervals, but not after short ones. We therefore suggested that sensitizers, but not repressors, employ active maintenance processes during the retention interval to selectively retain threatening material. Sensitive maintenance was studied in 2 experiments in which participants were briefly exposed to threatening and nonthreatening pictures (Experiment 1, N = 128) or words (Experiment 2, N = 145). Following, we administered unannounced recognition tests before and after an intervening task that generated either high or low cognitive load, assuming that high cognitive load would impede sensitizers' memory maintenance of threatening material. Supporting our hypotheses, the same pattern of results was obtained in both experiments: Under low cognitive load, sensitizers forgot less threat material than repressors did; no such differences were observed under high cognitive load.

Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Garcia, Raquel A.; Bastos, Miguel; Burgess, Neil David

2014-01-01

Aim Climate change can lead to decreased climatic suitability within species' distributions, increased fragmentation of climatically suitable space, and/or emergence of newly suitable areas outside present distributions. Each of these extrinsic threats and opportunities potentially interacts...... with specific intrinsic traits of species, yet this specificity is seldom considered in risk assessments. We present an analytical framework for examining projections of climate change-induced threats and opportunities with reference to traits that are likely to mediate species' responses, and illustrate...... of a framework combining spatial projections of climate change exposure with traits that are likely to mediate species' responses. Although the proposed framework carries several assumptions that require further scrutiny, its application adds a degree of realism to familiar assessments that consider all species...

Insider Threat to Computer Security at Nuclear Facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

West, Rebecca Lynn [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2018-01-29

After completing this session, you should be able to: Describe the Insider Threat; Characterize the cyber insider threat; Describe preventive measures against the insider threat; Describe protective measures against the insider threat.

Initial threat assessment. Radiological risks associated with SevRAO facilities falling within the regulatory supervision responsibilities of FMBA[Russian Federation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ilin, Leonid; Kochetkov, Oleg; Simakov, Anatoly; Shandala, Natalya; Savkin, Mikhail; Sneve, Malgorzata K.; Boerretzen, Peer; Jaworska, Alicja; Smith, Graham; Barraclough, Ian; Kruse, Phil

2005-07-01

The purpose of this initial threat assessment is to obtain a view, from the regulatory perspective of FMBA, of the most important issues which require supervision and regulatory development, regarding work which has to be carried out at the Andreeva Bay and Grcmikha. The main radiological threats have been identified and actions to reduce the threats have been proposed. Situations where regulations and procedures for workers on-site need to be developed have been identified. This will be a basis for further development of Russian regulation and procedures. (Author)

The Great Society: An Introduction to Stereotype Threat and Social Perceptions

Science.gov (United States)

Shackelford, R.; Ali, N. A.; Mendez, B.; Meinke, B. K.

2015-11-01

This workshop introduced the concept of stereotype threat, in which an individual's academic performance is affected by awareness of stereotypes. We explored how stereotype threat builds into perceptions and creates contradictions in our society that can impact work with particular groups, with an emphasis on working with Afro-American and urban audiences. Through the “The Great Society” activity, participants worked in groups to develop aesthetics and taboos for fictional societies. We discussed the ways in which each group's values are compatible and conflicting, how they influence our perceptions of self and others, and how similar interactions may be experienced while working with diverse audiences in earth and space science education and outreach efforts. This workshop sought to give participants a conceptual framework for cultivating awareness of their own and their audience's perceptions, which can then be used to work with cultural sensitivity with diverse audiences.

The link between hypomania risk and creativity: The role of heightened behavioral activation system (BAS) sensitivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Bin-Na; Kwon, Seok-Man

2017-06-01

The relationship between bipolar disorder (BD) and creativity is well-known; however, relatively little is known about its potential mechanism. We investigated whether heightened behavioral activation system (BAS) sensitivity may mediate such relationship. Korean young adults (N=543) completed self-report questionnaires that included the Hypomanic Personality Scale (HPS), the Behavioral Activation System(BAS) Scale, the Everyday Creativity Scale (ECS), the Positive Affect and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS), and the Altman Self-Rating Mania Scale (ASRM). Correlational, hierarchical regression and mediation analyses using bootstrap confidence intervals were conducted. As predicted, BAS sensitivity was associated with self-reported creativity as well as hypomania risk and symptoms. Even when positive affect was controlled, BAS sensitivity predicted incrementally significant variance in explaining creativity. In mediation analysis, BAS sensitivity partially mediated the relation between hypomania risk and creativity. Reliance on self-report measures in assessing creativity and usage of non-clinical sample. BAS sensitivity was related not only to mood pathology but also to creativity. As a basic affective temperament, BAS sensitivity may help explain incompatible sides of adaptation associated with BD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Business risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cosby, C.

2015-01-01

Bruce Power's definition: an emerging and demonstrable event or change in business plan assumptions that could impact Bruce Power's achievement of its business plan objectives and results. Risks can be either negative (threats) or positive (opportunities). Risks against the 5 year business plan Net Risk = impact * probability.

Cyber-physical attacks a growing invisible threat

CERN Document Server

Loukas, George

2015-01-01

Cyber-Physical Attacks: A Growing Invisible Threat presents the growing list of harmful uses of computers and their ability to disable cameras, turn off a building's lights, make a car veer off the road,  or a drone land in enemy hands. In essence, it details the ways cyber-physical attacks are replacing physical attacks in crime, warfare, and terrorism. The book explores how attacks using computers affect the physical world in ways that were previously only possible through physical means. Perpetrators can now cause damage without the same risk, and without the political, social, or moral

Factors increasing snake detection and perceived threat in captive rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta).

Science.gov (United States)

Etting, Stephanie F; Isbell, Lynne A; Grote, Mark N

2014-02-01

The primary predators of primates are all ambush hunters, and yet felids, raptors, and snakes differ in aspects of their ecology that affect the evasive strategies of their primate prey. Felids and raptors can traverse long distances quickly, thus the urgency of threat they present increases as they come closer in proximity to primates. In contrast, snakes do not move rapidly over long distances, and so primates may be reasonably safe even at close distances provided snakes can be detected and monitored. We investigated the ability of captive rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) to detect snakes at distances ranging from 15 to 1.5 m. We also examined variation in intensity of perceived threat by applying a Hidden Markov Model to infer changes in underlying state from observable behaviors, that is, increased attention and mobbing. We found that the macaques often failed to detect snake models but that closer proximity improved snake detection, which is necessary before threat can be perceived. We also found that having only one individual in fairly close proximity (≤ 7.5 m) was sufficient to alert the rest of the group and so the chances of detection did not increase with increasing group size. Finally, we found that when the snakes were perceived, they did not elicit greater intensity of response with closer proximity. These results provide evidence that the threat from snakes is greatest when they are in proximity to primates but are unseen. When snakes are seen, however, distance appears not to affect primates' perceived risk, in contrast to their perceived risk from raptors and felids. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

How Is Existential Threat Related to Intergroup Conflict? Introducing the Multidimensional Existential Threat (MET) Model

Science.gov (United States)

Hirschberger, Gilad; Ein-Dor, Tsachi; Leidner, Bernhard; Saguy, Tamar

2016-01-01

Existential threat lies at the heart of intergroup conflict, but the literature on existential concerns lacks clear conceptualization and integration. To address this problem, we offer a new conceptualization and measurement of existential threat. We establish the reliability and validity of our measure, and to illustrate its utility, we examine whether different existential threats underlie the association between political ideology and support for specific political policies. Study 1 (N = 798) established the construct validity of the scale, and revealed four distinct existential threats: personal death (PD), physical collective annihilation (PA), symbolic collective annihilation (SA), and past victimization (PV). Study 2 (N = 424) confirmed the 4-factor structure, and the convergent and discriminant validity of the scale. Study 3 (N = 170) revealed that the association between a hawkish political ideology and support for hardline policies was mediated by PV, whereas the association between a dovish political ideology and conciliatory policies was mediated by concerns over collective symbolic annihilation. Study 4 (N = 503) conceptually replicated the pattern of findings found in Study 3, and showed that at times of conflict, PA concerns also mediate the relationship between hawkish ideologies and support for hardline policies. In both Studies 3 and 4, when controlling for other threats, PD did not play a significant role. These results underscore the need to consider the multidimensional nature of existential threat, especially in the context of political conflict. PMID:27994561

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

McCaul, E. W., Jr.; Goodman, S. J.; LaCasse, K. M.; Cecil, D. J.

2009-01-01

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\\dgc\\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

Science.gov (United States)

Fortini, Lucas B.; Dye, Kaipo

2017-01-01

For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also

Alert but less alarmed: a pooled analysis of terrorism threat perception in Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barr Margo

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous Australian research has highlighted disparities in community perceptions of the threat posed by terrorism. A study with a large sample size is needed to examine reported concerns and anticipated responses of community sub-groups and to determine their consistency with existing Australian and international findings. Methods Representative samples of New South Wales (NSW adults completed terrorism perception questions as part of computer assisted telephone interviews (CATI in 2007 (N = 2081 and 2010 (N = 2038. Responses were weighted against the NSW population. Data sets from the two surveys were pooled and multivariate multilevel analyses conducted to identify health and socio-demographic factors associated with higher perceived risk of terrorism and evacuation response intentions, and to examine changes over time. Results In comparison with 2007, Australians in 2010 were significantly more likely to believe that a terrorist attack would occur in Australia (Adjusted Odd Ratios (AOR = 1.24, 95%CI:1.06-1.45 but felt less concerned that they would be directly affected by such an incident (AOR = 0.65, 95%CI:0.55-0.75. Higher perceived risk of terrorism and related changes in living were associated with middle age, female gender, lower education and higher reported psychological distress. Australians of migrant background reported significantly lower likelihood of terrorism (AOR = 0.52, 95%CI:0.39-0.70 but significantly higher concern that they would be personally affected by such an incident (AOR = 1.57, 95%CI:1.21-2.04 and having made changes in the way they live due to this threat (AOR = 2.47, 95%CI:1.88-3.25. Willingness to evacuate homes and public places in response to potential incidents increased significantly between 2007 and 2010 (AOR = 1.53, 95%CI:1.33-1.76. Conclusion While an increased proportion of Australians believe that the national threat of terrorism remains high, concern about being personally affected

Stereotype threat spillover: how coping with threats to social identity affects aggression, eating, decision making, and attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Inzlicht, Michael; Kang, Sonia K

2010-09-01

Stereotype threat spillover is a situational predicament in which coping with the stress of stereotype confirmation leaves one in a depleted volitional state and thus less likely to engage in effortful self-control in a variety of domains. We examined this phenomenon in 4 studies in which we had participants cope with stereotype and social identity threat and then measured their performance in domains in which stereotypes were not "in the air." In Study 1 we examined whether taking a threatening math test could lead women to respond aggressively. In Study 2 we investigated whether coping with a threatening math test could lead women to indulge themselves with unhealthy food later on and examined the moderation of this effect by personal characteristics that contribute to identity-threat appraisals. In Study 3 we investigated whether vividly remembering an experience of social identity threat results in risky decision making. Finally, in Study 4 we asked whether coping with threat could directly influence attentional control and whether the effect was implemented by inefficient performance monitoring, as assessed by electroencephalography. Our results indicate that stereotype threat can spill over and impact self-control in a diverse array of nonstereotyped domains. These results reveal the potency of stereotype threat and that its negative consequences might extend further than was previously thought. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

Power and threat in intergroup conflict : How emotional and behavioral responses depend on amount and content of threat

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kamans, Elanor; Otten, Sabine; Gordijn, Ernestine H.

We propose that in intergroup conflict threat content is important in understanding the reactions of those who experience threats the most: the powerless. Studies 1 and 2 show that powerless groups experience more threat than powerful groups, resulting in the experience of both more anger and fear.

Insular threat associations within taxa worldwide.

Science.gov (United States)

Leclerc, Camille; Courchamp, Franck; Bellard, Céline

2018-04-23

The global loss of biodiversity can be attributed to numerous threats. While pioneer studies have investigated their relative importance, the majority of those studies are restricted to specific geographic regions and/or taxonomic groups and only consider a small subset of threats, generally in isolation despite their frequent interaction. Here, we investigated 11 major threats responsible for species decline on islands worldwide. We applied an innovative method of network analyses to disentangle the associations of multiple threats on vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants in 15 insular regions. Biological invasions, wildlife exploitation, and cultivation, either alone or in association, were found to be the three most important drivers of species extinction and decline on islands. Specifically, wildlife exploitation and cultivation are largely associated with the decline of threatened plants and terrestrial vertebrates, whereas biological invasions mostly threaten invertebrates and freshwater fish. Furthermore, biodiversity in the Indian Ocean and near the Asian coasts is mostly affected by wildlife exploitation and cultivation compared to biological invasions in the Pacific and Atlantic insular regions. We highlighted specific associations of threats at different scales, showing that the analysis of each threat in isolation might be inadequate for developing effective conservation policies and managements.

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucas B. Fortini

2017-07-01

Full Text Available For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also found other (but not all anthropogenic threats are also similarly associated with more threats. Our findings serve as a reminder that ecological research should seriously consider these potential threat interactions, especially for species under elevated conservation concern.

Ultrasensitive microchip based on smart microgel for real-time online detection of trace threat analytes.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Shuo; Wang, Wei; Ju, Xiao-Jie; Xie, Rui; Liu, Zhuang; Yu, Hai-Rong; Zhang, Chuan; Chu, Liang-Yin

2016-02-23

Real-time online detection of trace threat analytes is critical for global sustainability, whereas the key challenge is how to efficiently convert and amplify analyte signals into simple readouts. Here we report an ultrasensitive microfluidic platform incorporated with smart microgel for real-time online detection of trace threat analytes. The microgel can swell responding to specific stimulus in flowing solution, resulting in efficient conversion of the stimulus signal into significantly amplified signal of flow-rate change; thus highly sensitive, fast, and selective detection can be achieved. We demonstrate this by incorporating ion-recognizable microgel for detecting trace Pb(2+), and connecting our platform with pipelines of tap water and wastewater for real-time online Pb(2+) detection to achieve timely pollution warning and terminating. This work provides a generalizable platform for incorporating myriad stimuli-responsive microgels to achieve ever-better performance for real-time online detection of various trace threat molecules, and may expand the scope of applications of detection techniques.

Sensitization to 10 mites in a tropic area. Der p and Der f are important risk factor for sensitization to other mites from Pyroglyphidae, Acaridae, Chortoglyphidae, and Glyciphagidae families

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge Sánchez

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Much is known about the frequency of sensitization to Blomia tropicalis, Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus and Dermatophagoides farinae, although less is known about sensitization to other species and their possible interactions. Objective: In patients with allergic manifestations, to evaluate the frequency of sensitization to 10 species of mites in a tropical area and their possible interactions. Methods: Cross-sectional study. Sensitization was evaluated by skin tests. A generalized linear Poisson regression model with robust variance was used. Based on the sensitization probability reasons and social networking analysis, explorations of relationship for 10 mites were performed. Results: 147 patients were included. The highest sensitization was found to mites' family Pyroglyphidae (> 70 % and less frequently was the Glycyphagidae family (< 50 %. Sensitization to any mites significantly increased the likelihood of sensitization to others. Sensitization to Der f or Der p increased, more than 20 times the likelihood of sensitization to other mites of the Pyroglyphidae family and more than 10 times to mites from other families. Sensitization to mites from Glycyphagidae, Chortoglyphidae or Acaridae family also increased the risk of sensitization to other mites but less than 5 times. Conclusion: Sensitization to mites is frequent in tropical area. Pyroglyphidae sensitization is the main risk factor for polysensitization with other mites from Glycyphagidae, Chortoglyphidae or Acaridae. These results must be considered at diagnosis and treatment of allergy diseases.

Terrorist threats of nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jozsef Solymosi; Jozser Ronaky; Zoltan Levai; Arpad Vincze; Laszlo Foldi

2004-01-01

More than one year has passed since the terrible terrorist attacks against the United States. The tragic event fundamentally restructured our security policy approach and made requirements of countering terrorism a top priority of the 21st century. In one year a lot of studies were published and the majority of them analyses primarily the beginnings of terrorism then focus on the interrelations of causes and consequences of the attacks against the WTC. In most of the cases the authors can only put their questions most of which have remained unanswered to date. Meanwhile, in a short while after the attacks the secret assessments of threat levels of potential targets and areas were also prepared. One of the high priority fields is the issue of nuclear, biological, and chemical security, in short NBC-security. Here and now we focus on component N, that is the assessment techniques of nuclear security in short, without aiming at completeness. Our definite objective is to make non-expert readers understand - and present a concrete example as it is done in risk analysis - the real danger-level of nuclear facilities and especially the terrorist threat. Our objective is not to give tips to terrorists but to provide them with deterring arguments and at the same time calm worried people. In our communique we give an overview of international practice of nuclear antiterrorism and of preventive nuclear protection in Hungary. (author)

Approaches to assess IgE mediated allergy risks (sensitization and cross-reactivity) from new or modified dietary proteins

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Remington, B.; Broekman, H. C. H.; Blom, W. M.

2018-01-01

for new proteins, and especially to identify and characterise the risk of sensitization for IgE mediated allergy from oral exposure. Existing tools and tests are capable of assessing potential crossreactivity. However, there are few possibilities to assess the hazard due to de novo sensitization. The only...... methods available are in vivo models, but many limitations exist to use them for assessing risk. We conclude that there is a need to understand which criteria adequately define allergenicity for risk assessment purposes, and from these criteria develop a more suitable battery of tests to distinguish...

Reducing the global threat of radiological terrorism in Central Asia and Caucus regions. The global threat reduction initiative approach to radioactive source security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, E.

2010-01-01

The security of radioactive sources is of worldwide concern, due to their wide use in civilian commerce and the potentially devastating effects of their misuse. In cooperation with host countries and international partners, the Global Threat Reduction Initiative has utilized a proven process for providing technical and financial assistance to protect radioactive sources in diverse uses and unique circumstances at hundreds of sites worldwide. The mission of the Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration's program includes reducing the risk posed by vulnerable radiological materials that could be used in a Radioactive Dispersal Device). The program's objectives are to identify, consolidate, secure, and/or dispose of high-activity radiological materials to prevent their theft and malicious use. The Global Threat Reduction Initiative Program's scope is global, with projects in over 100 countries at more than 755 radiological sites, including industrial, medical and commercial facilities. In addition to working bilaterally, the Program works closely with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and other partner countries. (author)

Efficiently Hiding Sensitive Itemsets with Transaction Deletion Based on Genetic Algorithms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chun-Wei Lin

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Data mining is used to mine meaningful and useful information or knowledge from a very large database. Some secure or private information can be discovered by data mining techniques, thus resulting in an inherent risk of threats to privacy. Privacy-preserving data mining (PPDM has thus arisen in recent years to sanitize the original database for hiding sensitive information, which can be concerned as an NP-hard problem in sanitization process. In this paper, a compact prelarge GA-based (cpGA2DT algorithm to delete transactions for hiding sensitive itemsets is thus proposed. It solves the limitations of the evolutionary process by adopting both the compact GA-based (cGA mechanism and the prelarge concept. A flexible fitness function with three adjustable weights is thus designed to find the appropriate transactions to be deleted in order to hide sensitive itemsets with minimal side effects of hiding failure, missing cost, and artificial cost. Experiments are conducted to show the performance of the proposed cpGA2DT algorithm compared to the simple GA-based (sGA2DT algorithm and the greedy approach in terms of execution time and three side effects.

Insider Threat Mitigation Workshop Instructional Materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gibbs, Philip [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Larsen, Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); O' Brien, Mike [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Rodriquez, Jose [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2008-01-01

Insiders represent a formidable threat to nuclear facilities. This set of workshop materials covers methodologies to analyze and approaches to mitigate the threat of an insider attempting abrupt theft of nuclear materials. This report is a compilation of workshop materials consisting of lectures on technical and administrative measures used in Physical Protection (PP) and Material Control and Accounting (MC&A) and methods for analyzing their effectiveness against a postulated insider threat.

Information security risk analysis

CERN Document Server

Peltier, Thomas R

2001-01-01

Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

Ose evaluation of delay systems in a high threat environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rich, B.L.; Cook, B.G.

1988-01-01

The Office of Security Evaluations (OSE) has in place an Evaluation Program to assist the Department of Energy (DOE) Headquarters and operations office managers by assessing specific elements of protection programs and informing the managers of common strengths and weaknesses of these elements. This information is provided so that sufficient and cost effective protection programs are maintained or enhanced. The subject of this paper is the evaluation of delay systems in the high-threat environment defined for sensitive DOE security interests such as special nuclear materials, nuclear weapons, and related classified devices and information

Executive function, approach sensitivity, and emotional decision making as influences on risk behaviors in young adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Patrick, Megan E; Blair, Clancy; Maggs, Jennifer L

2008-05-01

Relations among executive function, behavioral approach sensitivity, emotional decision making, and risk behaviors (alcohol use, drug use, and delinquent behavior) were examined in single female college students (N = 72). Hierarchical multiple regressions indicated a significant Approach Sensitivity x Working Memory interaction in which higher levels of alcohol use were associated with the combination of greater approach tendency and better working memory. This Approach Sensitivity x Working Memory interaction was also marginally significant for drug use and delinquency. Poor emotional decision making, as measured by a gambling task, was also associated with higher levels of alcohol use, but only for individuals low in inhibitory control. Findings point to the complexity of relations among aspects of self-regulation and personality and provide much needed data on neuropsychological correlates of risk behaviors in a nonclinical population.

Fracking in the UK press: threat dynamics in an unfolding debate.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaspal, Rusi; Nerlich, Brigitte

2014-04-01

Shale gas is a novel source of fossil fuel which is extracted by induced hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking". This article examines the socio-political dimension of fracking as manifested in the UK press at three key temporal points in the debate on the practice. Three newspaper corpora were analysed qualitatively using Thematic Analysis and Social Representations Theory. Three overarching themes are discussed: "April-May 2011: from Optimism to Scepticism"; "November 2011: (De-) Constructing and Re-Constructing Risk and Danger"; "April 2012: consolidating Social Representations of Fracking". In this article, we examine the emergence of and inter-relations between competing social representations, discuss the dynamics of threat positioning and show how threat can be re-construed in order to serve particular socio-political ends in the debate on fracking.

Business risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cosby, C., E-mail: Christine.cosby@brucepower.com [Bruce Power, Tiverton, ON (Canada)

2015-07-01

Bruce Power's definition: an emerging and demonstrable event or change in business plan assumptions that could impact Bruce Power's achievement of its business plan objectives and results. Risks can be either negative (threats) or positive (opportunities). Risks against the 5 year business plan Net Risk = impact * probability.

Overview of methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.

1985-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is playing an increasingly important role in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The assessment of uncertainties associated with PRA results is widely recognized as an important part of the analysis process. One of the major criticisms of the Reactor Safety Study was that its representation of uncertainty was inadequate. The desire for the capability to treat uncertainties with the MELCOR risk code being developed at Sandia National Laboratories is indicative of the current interest in this topic. However, as yet, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in the context of PRA is a relatively immature field. In this paper, available methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a PRA are reviewed. This review first treats methods for use with individual components of a PRA and then considers how these methods could be combined in the performance of a complete PRA. In the context of this paper, the goal of uncertainty analysis is to measure the imprecision in PRA outcomes of interest, and the goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify the major contributors to this imprecision. There are a number of areas that must be considered in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for a PRA: (1) information, (2) systems analysis, (3) thermal-hydraulic phenomena/fission product behavior, (4) health and economic consequences, and (5) display of results. Each of these areas and the synthesis of them into a complete PRA are discussed

Exposure amount and timing of solar irradiation during pregnancy and the risk of sensitization in children.

Science.gov (United States)

Koh, Hyun Yong; Cho, Eunhae; Lee, So-Yeon; Kim, Woo Kyung; Park, Yong Mean; Kim, Jihyun; Ahn, Kangmo; Lee, Seung Won; Kim, Mi Ae; Hahm, Myung-Il; Chae, Yoomi; Lee, Kee-Jae; Kwon, Ho-Jang; Han, Man Yong

2018-04-01

Solar irradiation affects sensitization to aeroallergens and the prevalence of allergic diseases. Little is known, however, about how the time and amount of solar irradiation during pregnancy affects such risks in children. We aimed to find out how solar irradiation during pregnancy affects sensitization to aero-allergens and the prevalence of allergic diseases in children. This population-based cross-sectional study involved 7301 aged 6 years and aged 12 years children. Maternal exposure to solar irradiation during pregnancy was evaluated using data from weather stations closest to each child's birthplace. Monthly average solar irradiation during the second and third trimesters was calculated with rank by quartiles. Risks of allergic sensitization and allergic disease were estimated. Relative to the first (lowest) quartile, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for allergic sensitization in the fourth (highest) quartile was lowest within solar irradiation during pregnancy months 5-6 (aOR = 0.823, 95% CI 0.720-0.942, p solar irradiation (aOR = 1.167, 95% CI 1.022-1.333, p solar irradiation was analyzed as a continuous variable during months 5 (aOR = 0.975, 95% CI 0.962-0.989, p solar irradiation during months 7-8 increased the risk of asthma (aOR = 1.309, 95% CI 1.024-1.674, p = 0.032). Maternal exposure to solar irradiation during the second trimester of pregnancy associated with reduced aeroallergen sensitization, whereas solar irradiation during the third trimester was related to increased sensitization to aeroallergens. Copyright © 2017 Japanese Society of Allergology. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Violence Prevention Behavior on Exposure to Workplace Violence and Threats: A Follow-Up Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gadegaard, Charlotte Ann; Andersen, Lars Peter; Hogh, Annie

2018-04-01

This longitudinal study investigates the relationship between prevention behaviors, that is, enacted violence prevention policies, and exposure to workplace violence and threats across four different high risk work sectors: psychiatry, special schools, eldercare, and the prison and probation services. Logistic regression analysis of a 1-year follow-up sample of 3.016 employees from these four sectors shows that prevention behaviors are significantly and negatively associated with self-reported exposure to workplace violence and threats-in the prison and probation services, eldercare, and in psychiatry, while no significant associations are found for special schools. The results therefore show clear sector differences with regard to the preventive effect of violence prevention behaviors. Furthermore, this multisector comparison suggests that prevention behaviors are more effective in relation to a moderate frequency of violence and threats, and that only top management prevention behavior can prevent very frequent incidents (odds ratio [ OR] = 0.58). This study contributes to the literature by use of a longitudinal design and acceptable response rates, while also simultaneously investigating several high risk sectors. The results imply that when managing workplace violence in high risk areas of human service work, there should be emphasis on the use of violence prevention behaviors from top management, supervisor, and among coworkers. However, type of sector and the frequency of workplace violence should be analyzed to evaluate the potential impact of prevention behaviors.

Decrypting Information Sensitivity: Risk, Privacy, and Data Protection Law in the United States and the European Union

Science.gov (United States)

Fazlioglu, Muge

2017-01-01

This dissertation examines the risk-based approach to privacy and data protection and the role of information sensitivity within risk management. Determining what information carries the greatest risk is a multi-layered challenge that involves balancing the rights and interests of multiple actors, including data controllers, data processors, and…

Use of High-Resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Science.gov (United States)

McCaul, E. W., Jr.; LaCasse, K.; Goodman, S. J.; Cecil, D. J.

2008-01-01

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to forecast explicitly the threat of lightning from convective storms using selected output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C and the shape of the simulated reflectivity profile are tested in this study as proxies for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Our lightning forecast method differs from others in that it is entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance on any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dmmensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, and METAR and ACARS data y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses of the lightning threat fields suggests that both the graupel flux and reflectivity profile approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable lightning threat forecasts, although an ensemble approach is probably desirable in order to reduce the tendency for misplacement of modeled storms to hurt the accuracy of the forecasts. Our lightning threat forecasts are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting thunderstorms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

Pollution, habitat loss, fishing, and climate change as critical threats to penguins.

Science.gov (United States)

Trathan, Phil N; García-Borboroglu, Pablo; Boersma, Dee; Bost, Charles-André; Crawford, Robert J M; Crossin, Glenn T; Cuthbert, Richard J; Dann, Peter; Davis, Lloyd Spencer; De La Puente, Santiago; Ellenberg, Ursula; Lynch, Heather J; Mattern, Thomas; Pütz, Klemens; Seddon, Philip J; Trivelpiece, Wayne; Wienecke, Barbara

2015-02-01

Cumulative human impacts across the world's oceans are considerable. We therefore examined a single model taxonomic group, the penguins (Spheniscidae), to explore how marine species and communities might be at risk of decline or extinction in the southern hemisphere. We sought to determine the most important threats to penguins and to suggest means to mitigate these threats. Our review has relevance to other taxonomic groups in the southern hemisphere and in northern latitudes, where human impacts are greater. Our review was based on an expert assessment and literature review of all 18 penguin species; 49 scientists contributed to the process. For each penguin species, we considered their range and distribution, population trends, and main anthropogenic threats over the past approximately 250 years. These threats were harvesting adults for oil, skin, and feathers and as bait for crab and rock lobster fisheries; harvesting of eggs; terrestrial habitat degradation; marine pollution; fisheries bycatch and resource competition; environmental variability and climate change; and toxic algal poisoning and disease. Habitat loss, pollution, and fishing, all factors humans can readily mitigate, remain the primary threats for penguin species. Their future resilience to further climate change impacts will almost certainly depend on addressing current threats to existing habitat degradation on land and at sea. We suggest protection of breeding habitat, linked to the designation of appropriately scaled marine reserves, including in the High Seas, will be critical for the future conservation of penguins. However, large-scale conservation zones are not always practical or politically feasible and other ecosystem-based management methods that include spatial zoning, bycatch mitigation, and robust harvest control must be developed to maintain marine biodiversity and ensure that ecosystem functioning is maintained across a variety of scales. © 2014 The Authors. Conservation Biology

Estimating the Economic Attractiveness of Investment Projects in Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk with the Use of Sensitivity Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kotsyuba Oleksiy S.

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The article is concerned with the methodology of economic substantiation of real investments in case of considerable lack of information on possible fluctuations of initial parameters and the resulting risk. The analysis of sensitivity as the main instrument for accounting the risk in the indicated problem situation is the focus of the presented research. In the publication, on the basis of the apparatus of interval mathematics, a set of models for comparative estimation of economic attractiveness (efficiency of alternative investment projects in conditions of uncertainty and risk is formulated, using the sensitivity analysis. The developed instrumentarium assumes both mono- and poly-interval version of the sensitivity analysis. As the risk component in the constructed models is used: in some – values of the specially developed sensitivity coefficient, in others – the worst values, which are based on the interval estimations of the partial criteria of efficiency. The sensitivity coefficient, according to the approach proposed in the publication, is the ratio of the target semi-range of variation to the increase (economy of efficiency, which is provided when the basic level of the analyzed partial criterion of economic attractiveness in comparison with some of its threshold (limit value is being reached.

Breast-related stereotype threat contributes to a symptom cluster in women with breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jie; Gao, Wei; Yu, Li-Xiang; Zhu, Song-Ying; Cao, Feng-Lin

2017-05-01

To investigate the prevalence of breast-related stereotype threat and its effects on a symptom cluster consisting of anxiety, depression and fatigue and on each symptom. The stereotype that breasts are a sign of women's femininity results in patients with breast cancer fearing diminished femininity and rejection, which may induce psychological problems that co-occur as a symptom cluster. Cross-sectional study. A total of 131 patients with breast cancer postmastectomy completed the study. A question measuring breast-related stereotype threat, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Fatigue Scale were used to assess their breast-related stereotype threat and symptoms of anxiety, depression and fatigue. Of the 131 patients who answered the breast-related stereotype threat question, 86 (65·6%) reported breast-related stereotype threat. They did not differ significantly in social and clinical characteristics compared with those without the stereotype, but did report significantly higher levels of the symptom cluster and each symptom (anxiety, depression and fatigue). The odds ratios of the stereotype were significant for the symptom cluster, depression and fatigue (odds ratios = 2·52-3·98, p stereotype threat was common in patients with breast cancer. There was about a twofold increase in their risk of experiencing the symptom cluster and symptoms of depression and fatigue. In clinical practice, breast-related stereotype threat should be measured together with prevalent symptoms (e.g. anxiety, depression and fatigue) in patients with breast cancer. Our findings will aid the development of interventions for improving the mental health of women with breast cancer. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Best practices in ranking communicable disease threats: a literature review, 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Eleanor Charlotte; Taft, Rachel; Geary, Katie; Ciotti, Massimo; Suk, Jonathan E

2016-04-28

The threat of serious, cross-border communicable disease outbreaks in Europe poses a significant challenge to public health and emergency preparedness because the relative likelihood of these threats and the pathogens involved are constantly shifting in response to a range of changing disease drivers. To inform strategic planning by enabling effective resource allocation to manage the consequences of communicable disease outbreaks, it is useful to be able to rank and prioritise pathogens. This paper reports on a literature review which identifies and evaluates the range of methods used for risk ranking. Searches were performed across biomedical and grey literature databases, supplemented by reference harvesting and citation tracking. Studies were selected using transparent inclusion criteria and underwent quality appraisal using a bespoke checklist based on the AGREE II criteria. Seventeen studies were included in the review, covering five methodologies. A narrative analysis of the selected studies suggests that no single methodology was superior. However, many of the methods shared common components, around which a 'best-practice' framework was formulated. This approach is intended to help inform decision makers' choice of an appropriate risk-ranking study design.

Portfolio Sensitivity Model for Analyzing Credit Risk Caused by Structural and Macroeconomic Changes

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Goran Klepac

2008-12-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a new model for portfolio sensitivity analysis. The model is suitable for decision support in financial institutions, specifically for portfolio planning and portfolio management. The basic advantage of the model is the ability to create simulations for credit risk predictions in cases when we virtually change portfolio structure and/or macroeconomic factors. The model takes a holistic approach to portfolio management consolidating all organizational segments in the process such as marketing, retail and risk.

Bomb Threat Assessments. Fact Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Tunkel, Ronald F.

2010-01-01

This information provides a brief, summary outline of how investigators should assess anonymous bomb threats at schools. Applying these principles may help administrators and law enforcement personnel accurately assess the viability and credibility of a threat and appropriately gauge their response. Any credible evidence provided by teachers or…

Culturally Sensitive Risk Behavior Prevention Programs for African American Adolescents: A Systematic Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Metzger, Isha; Cooper, Shauna M.; Zarrett, Nicole; Flory, Kate

2013-01-01

The current review conducted a systematic assessment of culturally sensitive risk prevention programs for African American adolescents. Prevention programs meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria were evaluated across several domains: (1) theoretical orientation and foundation; (2) methodological rigor; (3) level of cultural integration; (4)…

Stereotype threat in classroom settings: the interactive effect of domain identification, task difficulty and stereotype threat on female students' maths performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, Johannes

2007-06-01

Stereotype threat research revealed that negative stereotypes can disrupt the performance of persons targeted by such stereotypes. This paper contributes to stereotype threat research by providing evidence that domain identification and the difficulty level of test items moderate stereotype threat effects on female students' maths performance. The study was designed to test theoretical ideas derived from stereotype threat theory and assumptions outlined in the Yerkes-Dodson law proposing a nonlinear relationship between arousal, task difficulty and performance. Participants were 108 high school students attending secondary schools. Participants worked on a test comprising maths problems of different difficulty levels. Half of the participants learned that the test had been shown to produce gender differences (stereotype threat). The other half learned that the test had been shown not to produce gender differences (no threat). The degree to which participants identify with the domain of maths was included as a quasi-experimental factor. Maths-identified female students showed performance decrements under conditions of stereotype threat. Moreover, the stereotype threat manipulation had different effects on low and high domain identifiers' performance depending on test item difficulty. On difficult items, low identifiers showed higher performance under threat (vs. no threat) whereas the reverse was true in high identifiers. This interaction effect did not emerge on easy items. Domain identification and test item difficulty are two important factors that need to be considered in the attempt to understand the impact of stereotype threat on performance.

Threats Management Throughout the Software Service Life-Cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erlend Andreas Gjære

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Software services are inevitably exposed to a fluctuating threat picture. Unfortunately, not all threats can be handled only with preventive measures during design and development, but also require adaptive mitigations at runtime. In this paper we describe an approach where we model composite services and threats together, which allows us to create preventive measures at design-time. At runtime, our specification also allows the service runtime environment (SRE to receive alerts about active threats that we have not handled, and react to these automatically through adaptation of the composite service. A goal-oriented security requirements modelling tool is used to model business-level threats and analyse how they may impact goals. A process flow modelling tool, utilising Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN and standard error boundary events, allows us to define how threats should be responded to during service execution on a technical level. Throughout the software life-cycle, we maintain threats in a centralised threat repository. Re-use of these threats extends further into monitoring alerts being distributed through a cloud-based messaging service. To demonstrate our approach in practice, we have developed a proof-of-concept service for the Air Traffic Management (ATM domain. In addition to the design-time activities, we show how this composite service duly adapts itself when a service component is exposed to a threat at runtime.

Perceived risk: rationality, uncertainty and scepticism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, C.H.

1981-01-01

The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction; measuring what (deciding which outcomes are to be considered; personal safety, threat to health and safety (threat to society, threat to health)); accuracy of beliefs (distinction between immediate-in-effect hazards and delayed-in-effect hazards); the context of beliefs about risk (evolution of beliefs, changes in beliefs). Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

An overview of non-traditional nuclear threats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geelhood, B.D.; Wogman, N.A.

2005-01-01

In view of the terrorist threats to the United States, the country needs to consider new vectors and weapons related to nuclear and radiological threats against our homeland. The traditional threat vectors, missiles and bombers, have expanded to include threats arriving through the flow of commerce. The new commerce-related vectors include: sea cargo, truck cargo, rail cargo, air cargo, and passenger transport. The types of weapons have also expanded beyond nuclear warheads to include radiation dispersal devices (RDD) or 'dirty' bombs. The consequences of these nuclear and radiological threats are both economic and life threatening. The defense against undesirable materials entering our borders involves extensive radiation monitoring at ports of entry. The radiation and other signatures of potential nuclear and radiological threats are examined along with potential sensors to discover undesirable items in the flow of commerce. Techniques to improve radiation detection are considered. A strategy of primary and secondary screening is proposed to rapidly clear most cargo and carefully examine suspect cargo. (author)

Risk management for engineering projects procedures, methods and tools

CERN Document Server

Munier, Nolberto

2014-01-01

Many people see risk in engineering projects as an imprecise and nebulous problem - something that exists, is feared and is impossible to deal with. Nothing could be further from the truth. While risk is certainly ubiquitous, sometimes difficult to detect, and cannot always be completely avoided, it can generally be mitigated, reduced or prevented through timely analysis and action.   This book covers the entire process of risk management by providing methodologies for determining the sources of project risk, and once threats have been identified, managing them through:   ·         identification and assessment (probability, relative importance, variables, risk breakdown structure, etc.) ·         implementation of measures for their prevention, reduction or mitigation ·         evaluation of impacts and quantification of risks ·         establishment of control measures   It also considers sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of uncertain parameters values ...

Health risk perception, optimistic bias, and personal satisfaction.

Science.gov (United States)

Bränström, Richard; Brandberg, Yvonne

2010-01-01

To examine change in risk perception and optimistic bias concerning behavior-linked health threats and environmental health threats between adolescence and young adulthood and how these factors related to personal satisfaction. In 1996 and 2002, 1624 adolescents responded to a mailed questionnaire. Adolescents showed strong positive optimistic bias concerning behaviorlinked risks, and this optimistic bias increased with age. Increase in optimistic bias over time predicted increase in personal satisfaction. The capacity to process and perceive potential threats in a positive manner might be a valuable human ability positively influencing personal satisfaction and well-being.

Stereotype Threat, Test Anxiety, and Mathematics Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Tempel, Tobias; Neumann, Roland

2014-01-01

We investigated the combined effects of stereotype threat and trait test anxiety on mathematics test performance. Stereotype threat and test anxiety interacted with each other in affecting performance. Trait test anxiety predicted performance only in a diagnostic condition that prevented stereotype threat by stereotype denial. A state measure of…

Romanian experience and approach in developing the design basis threat concept

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ionescu, D.S.

2002-01-01

level of protection and the cost associated. Romanian experience showed that the trend of the state institution is to put in DBT any possible threat, even at the credibility limit instead the nuclear facility operators (who have to pay for protection) trend which is to reduce the threats to those according with the credibility criteria. An important contribution of the Romanian developing of DBT is the unification of the risk analyses methodology in the same nuclear plant. Before that, the risk associated with the operation and maintenance of the NPP has been calculated in a differed way from the risk related to the security. The impact was that the importance of a strong PPS was never fully understood by the people from other activities fields. Unifying the calculation of the risk associated to the operation and maintenance and security is particularly important to compute the contribution of the physical protection in the generally measures to minimize the population and the environment risk because of the nuclear activities. (author)