Model Adequacy Analysis of Matching Record Versions in Nosql Databases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. V. Tsviashchenko

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article investigates a model of matching record versions. The goal of this work is to analyse the model adequacy. This model allows estimating a user’s processing time distribution of the record versions and a distribution of the record versions count. The second option of the model was used, according to which, for a client the time to process record versions depends explicitly on the number of updates, performed by the other users between the sequential updates performed by a current client. In order to prove the model adequacy the real experiment was conducted in the cloud cluster. The cluster contains 10 virtual nodes, provided by DigitalOcean Company. The Ubuntu Server 14.04 was used as an operating system (OS. The NoSQL system Riak was chosen for experiments. In the Riak 2.0 version and later provide “dotted vector versions” (DVV option, which is an extension of the classic vector clock. Their use guarantees, that the versions count, simultaneously stored in DB, will not exceed the count of clients, operating in parallel with a record. This is very important while conducting experiments. For developing the application the java library, provided by Riak, was used. The processes run directly on the nodes. In experiment two records were used. They are: Z – the record, versions of which are handled by clients; RZ – service record, which contains record update counters. The application algorithm can be briefly described as follows: every client reads versions of the record Z, processes its updates using the RZ record counters, and saves treated record in database while old versions are deleted form DB. Then, a client rereads the RZ record and increments counters of updates for the other clients. After that, a client rereads the Z record, saves necessary statistics, and deliberates the results of processing. In the case of emerging conflict because of simultaneous updates of the RZ record, the client obtains all versions of that

Aquaplaning : Development of a Risk Pond Model from Road Surface Measurements

OpenAIRE

Nygårdhs, Sara

2003-01-01

Aquaplaning accidents are relatively rare, but could have fatal effects. The task of this master’s thesis is to use data from the Laser Road Surface Tester to detect road sections with risk of aquaplaning. A three-dimensional model based on data from road surface measurements is created using MATLAB (version 6.1). From this general geometrical model of the road, a pond model is produced from which the theoretical risk ponds are detected. A risk pond indication table is fur-ther created. The...

Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Software Package (1997 Version) User Manual

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, F.T.H.

1999-02-11

This manual provides instructions for using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) risk analysis and decision making software (1997 version) developed at BDM Petroleum Technologies by BDM-Oklahoma, Inc. for DOE, under contract No. DE-AC22-94PC91OO8. This software provides petroleum producers with a simple, handy tool for exploration and production risk analysis and decision-making. It collects useful risk analysis tools in one package so that users do not have to use several programs separately. The software is simple to use, but still provides many functions. The 1997 version of the software package includes the following tools: (1) Investment risk (Gambler's ruin) analysis; (2) Monte Carlo simulation; (3) Best fit for distribution functions; (4) Sample and rank correlation; (5) Enhanced oil recovery method screening; and (6) artificial neural network. This software package is subject to change. Suggestions and comments from users are welcome and will be considered for future modifications and enhancements of the software. Please check the opening screen of the software for the current contact information. In the future, more tools will be added to this software package. This manual includes instructions on how to use the software but does not attempt to fully explain the theory and algorithms used to create it.

Inter-rater reliability of the German version of the Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Kozel, Bernd; Grieser, Manuela; Abderhalden, Christoph; Cutcliffe, John R

2016-10-01

In comparison to the general population, the suicide rates of psychiatric inpatient populations in Germany and Switzerland are very high. An important preventive contribution to the lowering of the suicide rates in mental health care is to ensure that the risk of suicide of psychiatric inpatients is assessed as accurately as possible. While risk-assessment instruments can serve an important function in determining such risk, very few have been translated to German. Therefore, in the present study, we reported on the German version of Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk (NGASR) scale. After translating the original instrument into German and pretesting the German version, we tested the inter-rater reliability of the instrument. Twelve video case studies were evaluated by 13 raters with the NGASR scale in a 'laboratory' trial. In each case, the observer's agreement was calculated for the single items, the overall scale, the risk levels, and the sum scores. The statistical data analysis was conducted with kappa and AC1 statistics for dichotomous (items, scale) scales. A high-to-very high observers' agreement (AC1: 0.62-1.00, kappa: 0.00-1.00) was determined for 16 items of the German version of the NGASR scale. We conclude that the German version of the NGASR scale is a reliable instrument for evaluating risk factors for suicide. A reliable application in the clinical practise appears to be enhanced by training in the use of the instrument and the right implementation instructions. © 2016 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

The Terrestrial Investigation Model: A probabilistic risk assessment model for birds exposed to pesticides

Science.gov (United States)

One of the major recommendations of the National Academy of Science to the USEPA, NMFS and USFWS was to utilize probabilistic methods when assessing the risks of pesticides to federally listed endangered and threatened species. The Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM, version 3....

The Hamburg Oceanic Carbon Cycle Circulation Model. Version 1. Version 'HAMOCC2s' for long time integrations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heinze, C.; Maier-Reimer, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

1999-11-01

The Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle Circulation Model (HAMOCC, configuration HAMOCC2s) predicts the atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure (as induced by oceanic processes), production rates of biogenic particulate matter, and geochemical tracer distributions in the water column as well as the bioturbated sediment. Besides the carbon cycle this model version includes also the marine silicon cycle (silicic acid in the water column and the sediment pore waters, biological opal production, opal flux through the water column and opal sediment pore water interaction). The model is based on the grid and geometry of the LSG ocean general circulation model (see the corresponding manual, LSG=Large Scale Geostrophic) and uses a velocity field provided by the LSG-model in 'frozen' state. In contrast to the earlier version of the model (see Report No. 5), the present version includes a multi-layer sediment model of the bioturbated sediment zone, allowing for variable tracer inventories within the complete model system. (orig.)

Probabilistic Model for Integrated Assessment of the Behavior at the T.D.P. Version 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.; Recreo, F

2015-01-01

This report documents the completion of the first phase of the implementation of the methodology ABACO2G (Bayes Application to Geological Storage of CO2) and the final version of the ABACO2G probabilistic model for the injection phase before its future validation in the experimental field of the Technology Development Plant in Hontom (Burgos). The model, which is based on the determination of the probabilistic risk component of a geological storage of CO2 using the formalism of Bayesian networks and Monte Carlo probability yields quantitative probability functions of the total system CO2 storage and of each one of their subsystems (storage subsystem and the primary seal; secondary containment subsystem and dispersion subsystem or tertiary one); the implementation of the stochastic time evolution of the CO2 plume during the injection period, the stochastic time evolution of the drying front, the probabilistic evolution of the pressure front, decoupled from the CO2 plume progress front, and the implementation of submodels and leakage probability functions through major leakage risk elements (fractures / faults and wells / deep boreholes) which together define the space of events to estimate the risks associated with the CO2 geological storage system. The activities included in this report have been to replace the previous qualitative estimation submodels of former ABACO2G version developed during Phase I of the project ALM-10-017, by analytical, semi-analytical or numerical submodels for the main elements of risk (wells and fractures), to obtain an integrated probabilistic model of a CO2 storage complex in carbonate formations that meets the needs of the integrated behavior evaluation of the Technology Development Plant in Hontomín

Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0: Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) reference manual. Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; Kvarfordt, K.J.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1994-07-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), primarily for nuclear power plants. The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the use the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification to report generation. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since then, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 5.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 5.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as earlier versions and ads the ability to perform location transformations, seismic analysis, and provides enhancements to the user interface as well as improved algorithm performance. Additionally, version 5.0 contains new alphanumeric fault tree and event used for event tree rules, recovery rules, and end state partitioning

NETPATH-WIN: an interactive user version of the mass-balance model, NETPATH

Science.gov (United States)

El-Kadi, A. I.; Plummer, Niel; Aggarwal, P.

2011-01-01

NETPATH-WIN is an interactive user version of NETPATH, an inverse geochemical modeling code used to find mass-balance reaction models that are consistent with the observed chemical and isotopic composition of waters from aquatic systems. NETPATH-WIN was constructed to migrate NETPATH applications into the Microsoft WINDOWS® environment. The new version facilitates model utilization by eliminating difficulties in data preparation and results analysis of the DOS version of NETPATH, while preserving all of the capabilities of the original version. Through example applications, the note describes some of the features of NETPATH-WIN as applied to adjustment of radiocarbon data for geochemical reactions in groundwater systems.

The Unified Extensional Versioning Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asklund, U.; Bendix, Lars Gotfred; Christensen, H. B.

1999-01-01

Versioning of components in a system is a well-researched field where various adequate techniques have already been established. In this paper, we look at how versioning can be extended to cover also the structural aspects of a system. There exist two basic techniques for versioning - intentional...

External cephalic version-related risks: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Grootscholten, Kim; Kok, Marjolein; Oei, S Guid; Mol, Ben W J; van der Post, Joris A

2008-11-01

To systematically review the literature on external cephalic version-related complications and to assess if the outcome of a version attempt is related to complications. In March 2007 we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Studies reporting on complications from an external cephalic version attempt for singleton breech pregnancies after 36 weeks of pregnancy were selected. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) from studies that reported both on complications as well as on the position of the fetus immediately after the procedure. We found 84 studies, reporting on 12,955 version attempts that reported on external cephalic version-related complications. The pooled complication rate was 6.1% (95% CI 4.7-7.8), 0.24% for serious complications (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.17-0.34) and 0.35% for emergency cesarean deliveries (95% CI 0.26-0.47). Complications were not related to external cephalic version outcome (OR 1.2 (95% CI 0.93-1.7). External cephalic version is a safe procedure. Complications are not related to the fetal position after external cephalic version.

Assessment of radionuclide databases in CAP88 mainframe version 1.0 and Windows-based version 3.0.

Science.gov (United States)

LaBone, Elizabeth D; Farfán, Eduardo B; Lee, Patricia L; Jannik, G Timothy; Donnelly, Elizabeth H; Foley, Trevor Q

2009-09-01

In this study the radionuclide databases for two versions of the Clean Air Act Assessment Package-1988 (CAP88) computer model were assessed in detail. CAP88 estimates radiation dose and the risk of health effects to human populations from radionuclide emissions to air. This program is used by several U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities to comply with National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants regulations. CAP88 Mainframe, referred to as version 1.0 on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Web site (http://www.epa.gov/radiation/assessment/CAP88/), was the very first CAP88 version released in 1988. Some DOE facilities including the Savannah River Site still employ this version (1.0) while others use the more user-friendly personal computer Windows-based version 3.0 released in December 2007. Version 1.0 uses the program RADRISK based on International Commission on Radiological Protection Publication 30 as its radionuclide database. Version 3.0 uses half-life, dose, and risk factor values based on Federal Guidance Report 13. Differences in these values could cause different results for the same input exposure data (same scenario), depending on which version of CAP88 is used. Consequently, the differences between the two versions are being assessed in detail at Savannah River National Laboratory. The version 1.0 and 3.0 database files contain 496 and 838 radionuclides, respectively, and though one would expect the newer version to include all the 496 radionuclides, 35 radionuclides are listed in version 1.0 that are not included in version 3.0. The majority of these has either extremely short or long half-lives or is no longer in production; however, some of the short-lived radionuclides might produce progeny of great interest at DOE sites. In addition, 122 radionuclides were found to have different half-lives in the two versions, with 21 over 3 percent different and 12 over 10 percent different.

Computerized transportation model for the NRC Physical Protection Project. Versions I and II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, G.M.

1978-01-01

Details on two versions of a computerized model for the transportation system of the NRC Physical Protection Project are presented. The Version I model permits scheduling of all types of transport units associated with a truck fleet, including truck trailers, truck tractors, escort vehicles and crews. A fixed-fleet itinerary construction process is used in which iterations on fleet size are required until the service requirements are satisfied. The Version II model adds an aircraft mode capability and provides for a more efficient non-fixed-fleet itinerary generation process. Test results using both versions are included

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Optimization Version 4.0 Functional Improvements

Science.gov (United States)

Arellano, John; Young, M.; Boley, L.; Garcia, Y.; Saile, L.; Walton, M.; Kerstman, E.; Reyes, D.; Goodenow, D. A.; Myers, J. G.

2016-01-01

The IMMs ability to assess mission outcome risk levels relative to available resources provides a unique capability to provide guidance on optimal operational medical kit and vehicle resources. Post-processing optimization allows IMM to optimize essential resources to improve a specific model outcome such as maximization of the Crew Health Index (CHI), or minimization of the probability of evacuation (EVAC) or the loss of crew life (LOCL). Mass and or volume constrain the optimized resource set. The IMMs probabilistic simulation uses input data on one hundred medical conditions to simulate medical events that may occur in spaceflight, the resources required to treat those events, and the resulting impact to the mission based on specific crew and mission characteristics. Because IMM version 4.0 provides for partial treatment for medical events, IMM Optimization 4.0 scores resources at the individual resource unit increment level as opposed to the full condition-specific treatment set level, as done in version 3.0. This allows the inclusion of as many resources as possible in the event that an entire set of resources called out for treatment cannot satisfy the constraints. IMM Optimization version 4.0 adds capabilities that increase efficiency by creating multiple resource sets based on differing constraints and priorities, CHI, EVAC, or LOCL. It also provides sets of resources that improve mission-related IMM v4.0 outputs with improved performance compared to the prior optimization. The new optimization represents much improved fidelity that will improve the utility of the IMM 4.0 for decision support.

Prevalence, outcome, and women's experiences of external cephalic version in a low-risk population.

Science.gov (United States)

Rijnders, Marlies; Offerhaus, Pien; van Dommelen, Paula; Wiegers, Therese; Buitendijk, Simone

2010-06-01

Until recently, external cephalic version to prevent breech presentation at birth was not widely accepted. The objective of our study was to assess the prevalence, outcomes, and women's experiences of external cephalic version to improve the implementation of the procedure in the Netherlands. A prospective cohort study was conducted of 167 women under the care of a midwife with confirmed breech presentation at a gestational age of 33 completed weeks or more. Between June 2007 and January 2008, 167 women with a confirmed breech presentation were offered an external cephalic version. Of this group, 123 women (73.7%, 95% CI: 65.5-80.5) subsequently received the version. These women had about a ninefold increased probability of a cephalic presentation at birth compared with women who did not undergo a version (relative risk [RR]: 8.8, 95% CI: 2.2-34.8). The chance of a vaginal birth after an external cephalic version was almost threefold (RR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.5-5.0). The success rate was 39 percent, although considerable differences existed associated with region and parity. Ninety-four percent of women with a successful version rated it as a good experience compared with 71 percent of women who had a failed version (p = 0.015). Significant pain during the version was experienced by 34 percent of women, of whom 18 percent also experienced fear during the version, compared with no women who reported little or no pain (p = 0.006). Women who reported significant pain or fear during the version experienced the version more negatively (OR: 6.0, 95% CI: 3.3-12.2 and OR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.1-6.0, respectively). One in every four women with a breech presentation in independent midwifery care did not receive an external cephalic version. Of the women who received a version one third experienced significant pain during the procedure. Considerable regional variation in success rate existed.

The air emissions risk assessment model (AERAM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gratt, L.B.

1991-01-01

AERAM is an environmental analysis and power generation station investment decision support tool. AERAM calculates the public health risk (in terms of the lifetime cancers) in the nearby population from pollutants released into the air. AERAM consists of four main subroutines: Emissions, Air, Exposure and Risk. The Emission subroutine uses power plant parameters to calculate the expected release of the pollutants. A coal-fired and oil-fired power plant are currently available. A gas-fired plant model is under preparation. The release of the pollutants into the air is followed by their dispersal in the environment. The dispersion in the Air Subroutine uses the Environmental Protection Agency's model, Industrial Source Complex-Long Term. Additional dispersion models (Industrial Source Complex - Short Term and Cooling Tower Drift) are being implemented for future AERAM versions. The Expose Subroutine uses the ambient concentrations to compute population exposures for the pollutants of concern. The exposures are used with corresponding dose-response model in the Risk Subroutine to estimate both the total population risk and individual risk. The risk for the dispersion receptor-population centroid for the maximum concentration is also calculated for regulatory-population purposes. In addition, automated interfaces with AirTox (an air risk decision model) have been implemented to extend AERAM's steady-state single solution to the decision-under-uncertainty domain. AERAM was used for public health risks, the investment decision for additional pollution control systems based on health risk reductions, and the economics of fuel vs. health risk tradeoffs. AERAM provides that state-of-the-art capability for evaluating the public health impact airborne toxic substances in response to regulations and public concern

Forsmark - site descriptive model version 0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-10-01

During 2002, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is starting investigations at two potential sites for a deep repository in the Precambrian basement of the Fennoscandian Shield. The present report concerns one of those sites, Forsmark, which lies in the municipality of Oesthammar, on the east coast of Sweden, about 150 kilometres north of Stockholm. The site description should present all collected data and interpreted parameters of importance for the overall scientific understanding of the site, for the technical design and environmental impact assessment of the deep repository, and for the assessment of long-term safety. The site description will have two main components: a written synthesis of the site, summarising the current state of knowledge, as documented in the databases containing the primary data from the site investigations, and one or several site descriptive models, in which the collected information is interpreted and presented in a form which can be used in numerical models for rock engineering, environmental impact and long-term safety assessments. The site descriptive models are devised and stepwise updated as the site investigations proceed. The point of departure for this process is the regional site descriptive model, version 0, which is the subject of the present report. Version 0 is developed out of the information available at the start of the site investigation. This information, with the exception of data from tunnels and drill holes at the sites of the Forsmark nuclear reactors and the underground low-middle active radioactive waste storage facility, SFR, is mainly 2D in nature (surface data), and is general and regional, rather than site-specific, in content. For this reason, the Forsmark site descriptive model, version 0, as detailed in the present report, has been developed at a regional scale. It covers a rectangular area, 15 km in a southwest-northeast and 11 km in a northwest-southeast direction, around the

Modeling report of DYMOND code (DUPIC version)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Joo Hwan; Yacout, Abdellatif M.

2003-04-01

The DYMOND code employs the ITHINK dynamic modeling platform to assess the 100-year dynamic evolution scenarios for postulated global nuclear energy parks. Firstly, DYMOND code has been developed by ANL(Argonne National Laboratory) to perform the fuel cycle analysis of LWR once-through and LWR-FBR mixed plant. Since the extensive application of DYMOND code has been requested, the first version of DYMOND has been modified to adapt the DUPIC, MSR and RTF fuel cycle. DYMOND code is composed of three parts; the source language platform, input supply and output. But those platforms are not clearly distinguished. This report described all the equations which were modeled in the modified DYMOND code (which is called as DYMOND-DUPIC version). It divided into five parts;Part A deals model in reactor history which is included amount of the requested fuels and spent fuels. Part B aims to describe model of fuel cycle about fuel flow from the beginning to the end of fuel cycle. Part C is for model in re-processing which is included recovery of burned uranium, plutonium, minor actinide and fission product as well as the amount of spent fuels in storage and disposal. Part D is for model in other fuel cycle which is considered the thorium fuel cycle for MSR and RTF reactor. Part E is for model in economics. This part gives all the information of cost such as uranium mining cost, reactor operating cost, fuel cost etc

Modeling report of DYMOND code (DUPIC version)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Joo Hwan [KAERI, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Yacout, Abdellatif M [Argonne National Laboratory, Ilinois (United States)

2003-04-01

The DYMOND code employs the ITHINK dynamic modeling platform to assess the 100-year dynamic evolution scenarios for postulated global nuclear energy parks. Firstly, DYMOND code has been developed by ANL(Argonne National Laboratory) to perform the fuel cycle analysis of LWR once-through and LWR-FBR mixed plant. Since the extensive application of DYMOND code has been requested, the first version of DYMOND has been modified to adapt the DUPIC, MSR and RTF fuel cycle. DYMOND code is composed of three parts; the source language platform, input supply and output. But those platforms are not clearly distinguished. This report described all the equations which were modeled in the modified DYMOND code (which is called as DYMOND-DUPIC version). It divided into five parts;Part A deals model in reactor history which is included amount of the requested fuels and spent fuels. Part B aims to describe model of fuel cycle about fuel flow from the beginning to the end of fuel cycle. Part C is for model in re-processing which is included recovery of burned uranium, plutonium, minor actinide and fission product as well as the amount of spent fuels in storage and disposal. Part D is for model in other fuel cycle which is considered the thorium fuel cycle for MSR and RTF reactor. Part E is for model in economics. This part gives all the information of cost such as uranium mining cost, reactor operating cost, fuel cost etc.

Risk factors for cesarean section and instrumental vaginal delivery after successful external cephalic version.

Science.gov (United States)

de Hundt, Marcella; Vlemmix, Floortje; Bais, Joke M J; de Groot, Christianne J; Mol, Ben Willem; Kok, Marjolein

2016-01-01

Aim of this article is to examine if we could identify factors that predict cesarean section and instrumental vaginal delivery in women who had a successful external cephalic version. We used data from a previous randomized trial among 25 hospitals and their referring midwife practices in the Netherlands. With the data of this trial, we performed a cohort study among women attempting vaginal delivery after successful ECV. We evaluated whether maternal age, gestational age, parity, time interval between ECV and delivery, birth weight, neonatal gender, and induction of labor were predictive for a vaginal delivery on one hand or a CS or instrumental vaginal delivery on the other hand. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were calculated with univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Among 301 women who attempted vaginal delivery after a successful external cephalic version attempt, the cesarean section rate was 13% and the instrumental vaginal delivery rate 6%, resulting in a combined instrumental delivery rate of 19%. Nulliparity increased the risk of cesarean section (OR 2.7 (95% CI 1.2-6.1)) and instrumental delivery (OR 4.2 (95% CI 2.1-8.6)). Maternal age, gestational age at delivery, time interval between external cephalic version and delivery, birth weight and neonatal gender did not contribute to the prediction of failed spontaneous vaginal delivery. In our cohort of 301 women with a successful external cephalic version, nulliparity was the only one of seven factors that predicted the risk for cesarean section and instrumental vaginal delivery.

Fiscal impacts model documentation. Version 1.0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, S.L.; Scott, M.J.

1986-05-01

The Fiscal Impacts (FI) Model, Version 1.0 was developed under Pacific Northwest Laboratory's Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) Program to aid in development of the MRS Reference Site Environmental Document (PNL 5476). It computes estimates of 182 fiscal items for state and local government jurisdictions, using input data from the US Census Bureau's 1981 Survey of Governments and local population forecasts. The model can be adapted for any county or group of counties in the United States

The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART-WRF VERSION 3.1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brioude, J.; Arnold, D.; Stohl, A.; Cassiani, M.; Morton, Don; Seibert, P.; Angevine, W. M.; Evan, S.; Dingwell, A.; Fast, Jerome D.; Easter, Richard C.; Pisso, I.; Bukhart, J.; Wotawa, G.

2013-11-01

The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was originally designed for cal- culating long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air pollutants from point sources, such as after an accident in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime FLEXPART has evolved into a comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modeling and analysis at different scales. This multiscale need from the modeler community has encouraged new developments in FLEXPART. In this document, we present a version that works with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteoro- logical model. Simple procedures on how to run FLEXPART-WRF are presented along with special options and features that differ from its predecessor versions. In addition, test case data, the source code and visualization tools are provided to the reader as supplementary material.

Validity and Reliability of Persian Version of Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool among Aged People

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

hadi hojati

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Background & Aim: It is crucial to identify aged patients in risk of falls in clinical settings. Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool (JHFRAT is one of most applied international instrument to assess elderly patients for the risk of falls. The aim of this study was to evaluate reliability and internal consistency of the JHFRAT. Methods & Materials: In this cross-sectional study for validity assessment of the tool, WHO’s standard protocol was applied for translation-back translation of the tool. Face and content validity of the tool was confirmed by ten person of expert faculty members for its applicability in clinical setting. In this pilot study, the inclusion criteria were being 60 or more years old, hospitalized in the last 8 hours prior to assessment and in proper cognitive condition assessed by MMSE. Subjects of the study were (n=70 elderly patients who were newly hospitalized in Shahroud Emam Hossein Hospital. Data were analyzed using SPSS software- version 16. Internal consistency of the tool was calculated by Cronbach’s alpha. Results: According to the results of the study Persian version of JHFRAT was a valid tool for application on clinical setting. The Persian version of the tool had Cronbach’s alpha equal to 0/733. Conclusion: Based on the findings of the current study, it can be concluded that Persian version of the JHFRAT is a valid and reliable tool to be applied for assessment of elderly senior citizens on admission in any clinical settings.

Medical Updates Number 5 to the International Space Station Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) Model Using the Integrated Medical Model

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, Doug; Bauman, David; Johnson-Throop, Kathy

2011-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project has been developing a probabilistic risk assessment tool, the IMM, to help evaluate in-flight crew health needs and impacts to the mission due to medical events. This package is a follow-up to a data package provided in June 2009. The IMM currently represents 83 medical conditions and associated ISS resources required to mitigate medical events. IMM end state forecasts relevant to the ISS PRA model include evacuation (EVAC) and loss of crew life (LOCL). The current version of the IMM provides the basis for the operational version of IMM expected in the January 2011 timeframe. The objectives of this data package are: 1. To provide a preliminary understanding of medical risk data used to update the ISS PRA Model. The IMM has had limited validation and an initial characterization of maturity has been completed using NASA STD 7009 Standard for Models and Simulation. The IMM has been internally validated by IMM personnel but has not been validated by an independent body external to the IMM Project. 2. To support a continued dialogue between the ISS PRA and IMM teams. To ensure accurate data interpretation, and that IMM output format and content meets the needs of the ISS Risk Management Office and ISS PRA Model, periodic discussions are anticipated between the risk teams. 3. To help assess the differences between the current ISS PRA and IMM medical risk forecasts of EVAC and LOCL. Follow-on activities are anticipated based on the differences between the current ISS PRA medical risk data and the latest medical risk data produced by IMM.

Estimating Parameters for the PVsyst Version 6 Photovoltaic Module Performance Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-10-01

We present an algorithm to determine parameters for the photovoltaic module perf ormance model encoded in the software package PVsyst(TM) version 6. Our method operates on current - voltage (I - V) measured over a range of irradiance and temperature conditions. We describe the method and illustrate its steps using data for a 36 cell crystalli ne silicon module. We qualitatively compare our method with one other technique for estimating parameters for the PVsyst(TM) version 6 model .

Main modelling features of the ASTEC V2.1 major version

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatelard, P.; Belon, S.; Bosland, L.; Carénini, L.; Coindreau, O.; Cousin, F.; Marchetto, C.; Nowack, H.; Piar, L.; Chailan, L.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Recent modelling improvements of the ASTEC European severe accident code are outlined. • Key new physical models now available in the ASTEC V2.1 major version are described. • ASTEC progress towards a multi-design reactor code is illustrated for BWR and PHWR. • ASTEC strong link with the on-going EC CESAM FP7 project is emphasized. • Main remaining modelling issues (on which IRSN efforts are now directing) are given. - Abstract: A new major version of the European severe accident integral code ASTEC, developed by IRSN with some GRS support, was delivered in November 2015 to the ASTEC worldwide community. Main modelling features of this V2.1 version are summarised in this paper. In particular, the in-vessel coupling technique between the reactor coolant system thermal-hydraulics module and the core degradation module has been strongly re-engineered to remove some well-known weaknesses of the former V2.0 series. The V2.1 version also includes new core degradation models specifically addressing BWR and PHWR reactor types, as well as several other physical modelling improvements, notably on reflooding of severely damaged cores, Zircaloy oxidation under air atmosphere, corium coolability during corium concrete interaction and source term evaluation. Moreover, this V2.1 version constitutes the back-bone of the CESAM FP7 project, which final objective is to further improve ASTEC for use in Severe Accident Management analysis of the Gen.II–III nuclear power plants presently under operation or foreseen in near future in Europe. As part of this European project, IRSN efforts to continuously improve both code numerical robustness and computing performances at plant scale as well as users’ tools are being intensified. Besides, ASTEC will continue capitalising the whole knowledge on severe accidents phenomenology by progressively keeping physical models at the state of the art through a regular feed-back from the interpretation of the current and

IDC Use Case Model Survey Version 1.0.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carr, Dorthe B.; Harris, James M.

2014-12-01

This document contains the brief descriptions for the actors and use cases contained in the IDC Use Case Model Survey. REVISIONS Version Date Author/Team Revision Description Authorized by V1.0 12/2014 IDC Re- engineering Project Team Initial delivery M. Harris

H2A Production Model, Version 2 User Guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Steward, D.; Ramsden, T.; Zuboy, J.

2008-09-01

The H2A Production Model analyzes the technical and economic aspects of central and forecourt hydrogen production technologies. Using a standard discounted cash flow rate of return methodology, it determines the minimum hydrogen selling price, including a specified after-tax internal rate of return from the production technology. Users have the option of accepting default technology input values--such as capital costs, operating costs, and capacity factor--from established H2A production technology cases or entering custom values. Users can also modify the model's financial inputs. This new version of the H2A Production Model features enhanced usability and functionality. Input fields are consolidated and simplified. New capabilities include performing sensitivity analyses and scaling analyses to various plant sizes. This User Guide helps users already familiar with the basic tenets of H2A hydrogen production cost analysis get started using the new version of the model. It introduces the basic elements of the model then describes the function and use of each of its worksheets.

The use of biologically based cancer risk models in radiation epidemiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krewski, D.; Zielinski, J.M.; Hazelton, W.D.; Garner, M.J.; Moolgavkar, S.H.

2003-01-01

Biologically based risk projection models for radiation carcinogenesis seek to describe the fundamental biological processes involved in neoplastic transformation of somatic cells into malignant cancer cells. A validated biologically based model, whose parameters have a direct biological interpretation, can also be used to extrapolate cancer risks to different exposure conditions with some confidence. In this article, biologically based models for radiation carcinogenesis, including the two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model and its extensions, are reviewed. The biological and mathematical bases for such models are described, and the implications of key model parameters for cancer risk assessment examined. Specific applications of versions of the TSCE model to important epidemiologic datasets are discussed, including the Colorado uranium miners' cohort; a cohort of Chinese tin miners; the lifespan cohort of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki; and a cohort of over 200,000 workers included in the National Dose Registry (NDR) of Canada. (author)

Thermal modelling. Preliminary site description. Forsmark area - version 1.2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sundberg, Jan; Back, Paer-Erik; Bengtsson, Anna; Laendell, Maerta [Geo Innova AB, Linkoeping (Sweden)

2005-08-01

This report presents the thermal site descriptive model for the Forsmark area, version 1.2. The main objective of this report is to present the thermal modelling work where data has been identified, quality controlled, evaluated and summarised in order to make an upscaling to lithological domain level possible. The thermal conductivity at canister scale has been modelled for two different lithological domains (RFM029 and RFM012, both dominated by granite to granodiorite (101057)). A main modelling approach has been used to determine the mean value of the thermal conductivity. Two alternative/complementary approaches have been used to evaluate the spatial variability of the thermal conductivity at domain level. The thermal modelling approaches are based on the lithological model for the Forsmark area, version 1.2 together with rock type models constituted from measured and calculated (from mineral composition) thermal conductivities. Results indicate that the mean of thermal conductivity is expected to exhibit a small variation between the different domains, 3.46 W/(mxK) for RFM012 to 3.55 W/(mxK) for RFM029. The spatial distribution of the thermal conductivity does not follow a simple model. Lower and upper 95% confidence limits are based on the modelling results, but have been rounded of to only two significant figures. Consequently, the lower limit is 2.9 W/(mxK), while the upper is 3.8 W/(mxK). This is applicable to both the investigated domains. The temperature dependence is rather small with a decrease in thermal conductivity of 10.0% per 100 deg C increase in temperature for the dominating rock type. There are a number of important uncertainties associated with these results. One of the uncertainties considers the representative scale for the canister. Another important uncertainty is the methodological uncertainties associated with the upscaling of thermal conductivity from cm-scale to canister scale. In addition, the representativeness of rock samples is

Forsmark - site descriptive model version 0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-10-01

During 2002, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is starting investigations at two potential sites for a deep repository in the Precambrian basement of the Fennoscandian Shield. The present report concerns one of those sites, Forsmark, which lies in the municipality of Oesthammar, on the east coast of Sweden, about 150 kilometres north of Stockholm. The site description should present all collected data and interpreted parameters of importance for the overall scientific understanding of the site, for the technical design and environmental impact assessment of the deep repository, and for the assessment of long-term safety. The site description will have two main components: a written synthesis of the site, summarising the current state of knowledge, as documented in the databases containing the primary data from the site investigations, and one or several site descriptive models, in which the collected information is interpreted and presented in a form which can be used in numerical models for rock engineering, environmental impact and long-term safety assessments. The site descriptive models are devised and stepwise updated as the site investigations proceed. The point of departure for this process is the regional site descriptive model, version 0, which is the subject of the present report. Version 0 is developed out of the information available at the start of the site investigation. This information, with the exception of data from tunnels and drill holes at the sites of the Forsmark nuclear reactors and the underground low-middle active radioactive waste storage facility, SFR, is mainly 2D in nature (surface data), and is general and regional, rather than site-specific, in content. For this reason, the Forsmark site descriptive model, version 0, as detailed in the present report, has been developed at a regional scale. It covers a rectangular area, 15 km in a southwest-northeast and 11 km in a northwest-southeast direction, around the

A conceptual model specification language (CMSL Version 2)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wieringa, Roelf J.

1992-01-01

Version 2 of a language (CMSL) to specify conceptual models is defined. CMSL consists of two parts, the value specification language VSL and the object spercification language OSL. There is a formal semantics and an inference system for CMSL but research on this still continues. A method for

A hybrid version of swan for fast and efficient practical wave modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M. Genseberger (Menno); J. Donners

2016-01-01

htmlabstractIn the Netherlands, for coastal and inland water applications, wave modelling with SWAN has become a main ingredient. However, computational times are relatively high. Therefore we investigated the parallel efficiency of the current MPI and OpenMP versions of SWAN. The MPI version is

Low Dose Radiation Cancer Risks: Epidemiological and Toxicological Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

David G. Hoel, PhD

2012-04-19

The basic purpose of this one year research grant was to extend the two stage clonal expansion model (TSCE) of carcinogenesis to exposures other than the usual single acute exposure. The two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis incorporates the biological process of carcinogenesis, which involves two mutations and the clonal proliferation of the intermediate cells, in a stochastic, mathematical way. The current TSCE model serves a general purpose of acute exposure models but requires numerical computation of both the survival and hazard functions. The primary objective of this research project was to develop the analytical expressions for the survival function and the hazard function of the occurrence of the first cancer cell for acute, continuous and multiple exposure cases within the framework of the piece-wise constant parameter two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. For acute exposure and multiple exposures of acute series, it is either only allowed to have the first mutation rate vary with the dose, or to have all the parameters be dose dependent; for multiple exposures of continuous exposures, all the parameters are allowed to vary with the dose. With these analytical functions, it becomes easy to evaluate the risks of cancer and allows one to deal with the various exposure patterns in cancer risk assessment. A second objective was to apply the TSCE model with varing continuous exposures from the cancer studies of inhaled plutonium in beagle dogs. Using step functions to estimate the retention functions of the pulmonary exposure of plutonium the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model was to be used to estimate the beagle dog lung cancer risks. The mathematical equations of the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model were developed. A draft manuscript which is attached provides the results of this mathematical work. The application work using the beagle dog data from plutonium exposure has not been completed due to the fact

Psychometric validation of the Chinese version of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool for older Chinese inpatients.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Junhong; Wang, Min; Liu, Yu

2016-10-01

To culturally adapt and evaluate the reliability and validity of the Chinese version of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool among older inpatients in the mainland of China. Patient falls are an important safety consideration within hospitals among older inpatients. Nurses need specific risk assessment tools for older inpatients to reliably identify at-risk populations and guide interventions that highlight fixable risk factors for falls and consequent injuries. In China, a few tools have been developed to measure fall risk. However, they lack the solid psychometric development necessary to establish their validity and reliability, and they are not widely used for elderly inpatients. A cross-sectional study. A convenient sampling was used to recruit 201 older inpatients from two tertiary-level hospitals in Beijing and Xiamen, China. The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool was translated using forward and backward translation procedures and was administered to these 201 older inpatients. Reliability of the tool was calculated by inter-rater reliability and Cronbach's alpha. Validity was analysed through content validity index and construct validity. The Inter-rater reliability of Chinese version of Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool was 97·14% agreement with Cohen's Kappa of 0·903. Cronbach's α was 0·703. Content of Validity Index was 0·833. Two factors represented intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors were explored that together explained 58·89% of the variance. This study provided evidence that Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool is an acceptable, valid and reliable tool to identify older inpatients at risk of falls and falls with injury. Further psychometric testing on criterion validity and evaluation of its advanced utility in geriatric clinical settings are warranted. The Chinese version of Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool may be useful for health care personnel to identify older Chinese inpatients at risk of falls and falls

The complex model of risk and progression of AMD estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. S. Akopyan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: to develop a method and a statistical model to estimate individual risk of AMD and the risk for progression to advanced AMD using clinical and genetic risk factors.Methods: A statistical risk assessment model was developed using stepwise binary logistic regression analysis. to estimate the population differences in the prevalence of allelic variants of genes and for the development of models adapted to the population of Moscow region genotyping and assessment of the influence of other risk factors was performed in two groups: patients with differ- ent stages of AMD (n = 74, and control group (n = 116. Genetic risk factors included in the study: polymorphisms in the complement system genes (C3 and CFH, genes at 10q26 locus (ARMS2 and HtRA1, polymorphism in the mitochondrial gene Mt-ND2. Clinical risk factors included in the study: age, gender, high body mass index, smoking history.Results: A comprehensive analysis of genetic and clinical risk factors for AMD in the study group was performed. Compiled statis- tical model assessment of individual risk of AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.5%, AUC = 0.76. Risk factors of late AMD, compiled a statistical model describing the probability of late AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.3%, AUC = 0.73. the developed system allows determining the most likely version of the current late AMD: dry or wet.Conclusion: the developed test system and the mathematical algorhythm for determining the risk of AMD, risk of progression to advanced AMD have fair diagnostic informative and promising for use in clinical practice.

External Cephalic Version-Related Risks A Meta-analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grootscholten, Kim; Kok, Marjolein; Oei, S. Guid; Mol, Ben W. J.; van der Post, Joris A.

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the literature on external cephalic version-related complications and to assess if the outcome of a version attempt is related to complications. DATA SOURCES: In March 2007 we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials.

CENTURY: Modeling Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change, Version 4 (VEMAP 1995)

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The CENTURY model, Version 4, is a general model of plant-soil nutrient cycling that is being used to simulate carbon and nutrient dynamics for different...

Fetomaternal hemorrhage during external cephalic version.

Science.gov (United States)

Boucher, Marc; Marquette, Gerald P; Varin, Jocelyne; Champagne, Josette; Bujold, Emmanuel

2008-07-01

To estimate the frequency and volume of fetomaternal hemorrhage during external cephalic version for term breech singleton fetuses and to identify risk factors involved with this complication. A prospective observational study was performed including all patients undergoing a trial of external cephalic version for a breech presentation of at least 36 weeks of gestation between 1987 and 2001 in our center. A search for fetal erythrocytes using the standard Kleihauer-Betke test was obtained before and after each external cephalic version. The frequency and volume of fetomaternal hemorrhage were calculated. Putative risk factors for fetomaternal hemorrhage were evaluated by chi(2) test and Mann-Whitney U test. A Kleihauer-Betke test result was available before and after 1,311 trials of external cephalic version. The Kleihauer-Betke test was positive in 67 (5.1%) before the procedure. Of the 1,244 women with a negative Kleihauer-Betke test before external cephalic version, 30 (2.4%) had a positive Kleihauer-Betke test after the procedure. Ten (0.8%) had an estimated fetomaternal hemorrhage greater than 1 mL, and one (0.08%) had an estimated fetomaternal hemorrhage greater than 30 mL. The risk of fetomaternal hemorrhage was not influenced by parity, gestational age, body mass index, number of attempts at version, placental location, or amniotic fluid index. The risk of detectable fetomaternal hemorrhage during external cephalic version was 2.4%, with fetomaternal hemorrhage more than 30 mL in less than 0.1% of cases. These data suggest that the performance of a Kleihauer-Betke test is unwarranted in uneventful external cephalic version and that in Rh-negative women, no further Rh immune globulin is necessary other than the routine 300-microgram dose at 28 weeks of gestation and postpartum. II.

CENTURY: Modeling Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change, Version 4 (VEMAP 1995)

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The CENTURY model, Version 4, is a general model of plant-soil nutrient cycling that is being used to simulate carbon and nutrient dynamics for different types of...

IDC Use Case Model Survey Version 1.1.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, James Mark [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Carr, Dorthe B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-02-01

This document contains the brief descriptions for the actors and use cases contained in the IDC Use Case Model. REVISIONS Version Date Author/Team Revision Description Authorized by V1.0 12/2014 SNL IDC Reengineering Project Team Initial delivery M. Harris V1.1 2/2015 SNL IDC Reengineering Project Team Iteration I2 Review Comments M. Harris

A new risk prediction model for critical care: the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) model.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, David A; Parry, Gareth J; Carpenter, James R; Short, Alasdair; Rowan, Kathy

2007-04-01

To develop a new model to improve risk prediction for admissions to adult critical care units in the UK. Prospective cohort study. The setting was 163 adult, general critical care units in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, December 1995 to August 2003. Patients were 216,626 critical care admissions. None. The performance of different approaches to modeling physiologic measurements was evaluated, and the best methods were selected to produce a new physiology score. This physiology score was combined with other information relating to the critical care admission-age, diagnostic category, source of admission, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation before admission-to develop a risk prediction model. Modeling interactions between diagnostic category and physiology score enabled the inclusion of groups of admissions that are frequently excluded from risk prediction models. The new model showed good discrimination (mean c index 0.870) and fit (mean Shapiro's R 0.665, mean Brier's score 0.132) in 200 repeated validation samples and performed well when compared with recalibrated versions of existing published risk prediction models in the cohort of patients eligible for all models. The hypothesis of perfect fit was rejected for all models, including the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) model, as is to be expected in such a large cohort. The ICNARC model demonstrated better discrimination and overall fit than existing risk prediction models, even following recalibration of these models. We recommend it be used to replace previously published models for risk adjustment in the UK.

Latest NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM): Version VI

Science.gov (United States)

Mrozinski, Joe; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Fox, George; Ball, Gary

2014-01-01

The NASA Instrument Cost Model, NICM, is a suite of tools which allow for probabilistic cost estimation of NASA's space-flight instruments at both the system and subsystem level. NICM also includes the ability to perform cost by analogy as well as joint confidence level (JCL) analysis. The latest version of NICM, Version VI, was released in Spring 2014. This paper will focus on the new features released with NICM VI, which include: 1) The NICM-E cost estimating relationship, which is applicable for instruments flying on Explorer-like class missions; 2) The new cluster analysis ability which, alongside the results of the parametric cost estimation for the user's instrument, also provides a visualization of the user's instrument's similarity to previously flown instruments; and 3) includes new cost estimating relationships for in-situ instruments.

ANLECIS-1: Version of ANLECIS Program for Calculations with the Asymetric Rotational Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez Mendez, R.; Garcia Moruarte, F.

1986-01-01

A new modified version of the ANLECIS Code is reported. This version allows to fit simultaneously the cross section of the direct process by the asymetric rotational model, and the cross section of the compound nucleus process by the Hauser-Feshbach formalism with the modern statistical corrections. The calculations based in this version show a dependence of the compound nucleus cross section with respect to the asymetric parameter γ. (author). 19 refs

The outcomes and risk factors of fetal bradycardia associated with external cephalic version.

Science.gov (United States)

Suyama, Fumio; Ogawa, Kohei; Tazaki, Yukiko; Miwa, Terumi; Taniguchi, Kosuke; Nakamura, Noriyuki; Tanaka, Satomi; Tanigaki, Shinji; Sago, Haruhiko

2017-11-02

The objective of this study is to assess the outcomes and risk factors of fetal bradycardia after external cephalic version (ECV). We performed a retrospective study of women who underwent ECV after 35 weeks of gestation in 2010-2016. We assessed the birth outcomes, including umbilical cord artery pH, according to the duration of fetal bradycardia and the risk factors for bradycardia. Among 390 cases, 189 (48.5%) cases showed fetal bradycardia during or immediately after ECV. The duration of fetal bradycardia was 10 min occurred in three cases; emergency cesarean section was performed in each case, with delivery after 12-4 min of bradycardia. Two of three cases showed low Apgar scores at 5 min, with an umbilical cord arterial pH of 10 min after ECV was a risk factor for asphyxia. Thus, delivery should be completed within 10 min after bradycardia. A low maternal BMI and a prolonged ECV procedure were risk factors for bradycardia after ECV.

A one-dimensional material transfer model for HECTR version 1.5

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geller, A.S.; Wong, C.C.

1991-08-01

HECTR (Hydrogen Event Containment Transient Response) is a lumped-parameter computer code developed for calculating the pressure-temperature response to combustion in a nuclear power plant containment building. The code uses a control-volume approach and subscale models to simulate the mass, momentum, and energy transfer occurring in the containment during a loss-of-collant-accident (LOCA). This document describes one-dimensional subscale models for mass and momentum transfer, and the modifications to the code required to implement them. Two problems were analyzed: the first corresponding to a standard problem studied with previous HECTR versions, the second to experiments. The performance of the revised code relative to previous HECTR version is discussed as is the ability of the code to model the experiments. 8 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.3)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blackburn, C.L.

1991-11-01

The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.3 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement

The MiniBIOS model (version 1A4) at the RIVM

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Uijt de Haag PAM; Laheij GMH

1993-01-01

This report is the user's guide of the MiniBIOS model, version 1A4. The model is operational at the Laboratory of Radiation Research of the RIVM. MiniBIOS is a simulation model for calculating the transport of radionuclides in the biosphere and the consequential radiation dose to humans. The

External Validation of a Prediction Model for Successful External Cephalic Version

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Hundt, Marcella; Vlemmix, Floortje; Kok, Marjolein; van der Steeg, Jan W.; Bais, Joke M.; Mol, Ben W.; van der Post, Joris A.

2012-01-01

We sought external validation of a prediction model for the probability of a successful external cephalic version (ECV). We evaluated the performance of the prediction model with calibration and discrimination. For clinical practice, we developed a score chart to calculate the probability of a

Regularized integrable version of the one-dimensional quantum sine-Gordon model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Japaridze, G.I.; Nersesyan, A.A.; Wiegmann, P.B.

1983-01-01

The authors derive a regularized exactly solvable version of the one-dimensional quantum sine-Gordon model proceeding from the exact solution of the U(1)-symmetric Thirring model. The ground state and the excitation spectrum are obtained in the region ν 2 < 8π. (Auth.)

Physics-Based Fragment Acceleration Modeling for Pressurized Tank Burst Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Manning, Ted A.; Lawrence, Scott L.

2014-01-01

As part of comprehensive efforts to develop physics-based risk assessment techniques for space systems at NASA, coupled computational fluid and rigid body dynamic simulations were carried out to investigate the flow mechanisms that accelerate tank fragments in bursting pressurized vessels. Simulations of several configurations were compared to analyses based on the industry-standard Baker explosion model, and were used to formulate an improved version of the model. The standard model, which neglects an external fluid, was found to agree best with simulation results only in configurations where the internal-to-external pressure ratio is very high and fragment curvature is small. The improved model introduces terms that accommodate an external fluid and better account for variations based on circumferential fragment count. Physics-based analysis was critical in increasing the model's range of applicability. The improved tank burst model can be used to produce more accurate risk assessments of space vehicle failure modes that involve high-speed debris, such as exploding propellant tanks and bursting rocket engines.

Simpevarp - site descriptive model version 0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-11-01

During 2002, SKB is starting detailed investigations at two potential sites for a deep repository in the Precambrian rocks of the Fennoscandian Shield. The present report concerns one of those sites, Simpevarp, which lies in the municipality of Oskarshamn, on the southeast coast of Sweden, about 250 kilometres south of Stockholm. The site description will have two main components: a written synthesis of the site, summarising the current state of knowledge, as documented in the databases containing the primary data from the site investigations, and one or several site descriptive models, in which the collected information is interpreted and presented in a form which can be used in numerical models for rock engineering, environmental impact and long-term safety assessments. SKB maintains two main databases at the present time, a site characterisation database called SICADA and a geographic information system called SKB GIS. The site descriptive model will be developed and presented with the aid of the SKB GIS capabilities, and with SKBs Rock Visualisation System (RVS), which is also linked to SICADA. The version 0 model forms an important framework for subsequent model versions, which are developed successively, as new information from the site investigations becomes available. Version 0 is developed out of the information available at the start of the site investigation. In the case of Simpevarp, this is essentially the information which was compiled for the Oskarshamn feasibility study, which led to the choice of that area as a favourable object for further study, together with information collected since its completion. This information, with the exception of the extensive data base from the nearby Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory, is mainly 2D in nature (surface data), and is general and regional, rather than site-specific, in content. Against this background, the present report consists of the following components: an overview of the present content of the databases

Transport Risk Index of Physiologic Stability, version II (TRIPS-II): a simple and practical neonatal illness severity score.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Shoo K; Aziz, Khalid; Dunn, Michael; Clarke, Maxine; Kovacs, Lajos; Ojah, Cecil; Ye, Xiang Y

2013-05-01

Derive and validate a practical assessment of infant illness severity at admission to neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). Prospective study involving 17,075 infants admitted to 15 NICUs in 2006 to 2008. Logistic regression was used to derive a prediction model for mortality comprising four empirically weighted items (temperature, blood pressure, respiratory status, response to noxious stimuli). This Transport Risk Index of Physiologic Stability, version II (TRIPS-II) was then validated for prediction of 7-day and total NICU mortality. TRIPS-II discriminated 7-day (receiver operating curve [ROC] area, 0.90) and total NICU mortality (ROC area, 0.87) from survival. Furthermore, there was a direct association between changes in TRIPS-II at 12 and 24 hours and mortality. There was good calibration across the full range of TRIPS-II scores and the gestational age at birth, and addition of TRIPS-II improved performance of prediction models that use gestational age and baseline population risk variables. TRIPS-II is a validated benchmarking tool for assessing infant illness severity at admission and for up to 24 hours after. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Shortened version of the work ability index to identify workers at risk of long-term sickness absence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schouten, Lianne S.; Bultmann, Ute; Heymans, Martijn W.; Joling, Catelijne I.; Twisk, Jos W. R.; Roelen, Corne A. M.

2016-01-01

Background: The Work Ability Index (WAI) identifies non-sicklisted workers at risk of future long-term sickness absence (LTSA). The WAI is a complicated instrument and inconvenient for use in large-scale surveys. We investigated whether shortened versions of the WAI identify non-sicklisted workers

ONKALO rock mechanics model (RMM). Version 2.3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haekkinen, T.; Merjama, S.; Moenkkoenen, H. [WSP Finland, Helsinki (Finland)

2014-07-15

The Rock Mechanics Model of the ONKALO rock volume includes the most important rock mechanics features and parameters at the Olkiluoto site. The main objective of the model is to be a tool to predict rock properties, rock quality and hence provide an estimate for the rock stability of the potential repository at Olkiluoto. The model includes a database of rock mechanics raw data and a block model in which the rock mechanics parameters are estimated through block volumes based on spatial rock mechanics raw data. In this version 2.3, special emphasis was placed on refining the estimation of the block model. The model was divided into rock mechanics domains which were used as constraints during the block model estimation. During the modelling process, a display profile and toolbar were developed for the GEOVIA Surpac software to improve visualisation and access to the rock mechanics data for the Olkiluoto area. (orig.)

External cephalic version before elective caesarean section for breech presentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zafar, F.; Sanusi, A.

2008-01-01

The Royal College of Obstetrics and Gynaecology guidelines state that all uncomplicated breech Presentation should be offered external cephalic version and all such women should be briefed about the risks and benefits of external cephalic version and all such women should be briefed about the risks and benefits of external cephalic version before undertaking the procedure. To ascertain the acceptability of external cephalic version before elective caesarean section for breech Presentation by pregnant ladies and see whether they were adequately informed about the risks and benefits. The clinical audit was registered with the audit department at Watford general hospital and written Consent for the access of medical records was obtained. A retrospective view of 86 accessible medical records out of Total 110 elective breech caesarean sections was done over a period of one year. This retrospective study was conducted at the gynaecology and obstetrics department at Watford general hospital, Watford United Kingdom. Written consent for the access of medical records was obtained. All women who under went elective caesarean section due to breech presentation were included in the study. Out of a total of 110 elective breech caesarean sections performed, the data on 86 cases was selected for the final analysis. The information gathered included patient's profile, whether patient was informed of risks and benefits of external cephalic version, recognition of obstetric risk factors, external cephalic version performed and its success. Out of total 86 caesarean sections 46 were suitable for external cephalic version of whom 37 cases were offered external cephalic version. Among 37 patients who were offered external cephalic version only 15 patients accepted (22 declined) the procedure. Moreover, it was found that the documentation of risk/benefit explanation of the procedure was inadequate. External cephalic version was not successful in any of the patient. Causes for

Community Practice Implementation of a Self-administered Version of PREMM1,2,6 to Assess Risk for Lynch Syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Luba, Daniel G; DiSario, James A; Rock, Colleen; Saraiya, Devki; Moyes, Kelsey; Brown, Krystal; Rushton, Kristen; Ogara, Maydeen M; Raphael, Mona; Zimmerman, Dayna; Garrido, Kimmie; Silguero, Evelyn; Nelson, Jonathan; Yurgelun, Matthew B; Kastrinos, Fay; Wenstrup, Richard J; Syngal, Sapna

2018-01-01

incorporation of PREMM 1,2,6 into their clinical practice, and that they would continue using it to assess risk for Lynch syndrome. A patient self-administered version of the PREMM 1,2,6 Lynch syndrome risk assessment model can be used systematically in community-based gastroenterology and endoscopy practices. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incremental Validity Analyses of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version in a Civil Psychiatric Sample

Science.gov (United States)

Edens, John F.; Skeem, Jennifer L.; Douglas, Kevin S.

2006-01-01

This study compares two instruments frequently used to assess risk for violence, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV), in a large sample of civil psychiatric patients. Despite a strong bivariate relationship with community violence, the VRAG could not improve on the predictive validity…

Metric properties of the "timed get up and go- modified version" test, in risk assessment of falls in active women.

Science.gov (United States)

Alfonso Mora, Margareth Lorena

2017-03-30

To analyse the metric properties of the Timed Get up and Go-Modified Version Test (TGUGM), in risk assessment of falls in a group of physically active women. A sample was constituted by 202 women over 55 years of age, were assessed through a crosssectional study. The TGUGM was applied to assess their fall risk. The test was analysed by comparison of the qualitative and quantitative information and by factor analysis. The development of a logistic regression model explained the risk of falls according to the test components. The TGUGM was useful for assessing the risk of falls in the studied group. The test revealed two factors: the Get Up and the Gait with dual task . Less than twelve points in the evaluation or runtimes higher than 35 seconds was associated with high risk of falling. More than 35 seconds in the test indicated a risk fall probability greater than 0.50. Also, scores less than 12 points were associated with a delay of 7 seconds more in the execution of the test ( p = 0.0016). Factor analysis of TGUGM revealed two dimensions that can be independent predictors of risk of falling: The Get up that explains between 64% and 87% of the risk of falling, and the Gait with dual task, that explains between 77% and 95% of risk of falling.

London SPAN version 4 parameter file format

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-06-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility in charge of managing the French power exchange through an optional and anonymous organised trading system. Powernext SA collaborates with the clearing organization LCH.Clearnet SA to secure and facilitate the transactions. The French Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk (SPAN) is a system used by LCH.Clearnet to calculate the initial margins from and for its clearing members. SPAN is a computerized system which calculates the impact of several possible variations of rates and volatility on by-product portfolios. The initial margin call is equal to the maximum probable loss calculated by the system. This document contains details of the format of the London SPAN version 4 parameter file. This file contains all the parameters and risk arrays required to calculate SPAN margins. London SPAN Version 4 is an upgrade from Version 3, which is also known as LME SPAN. This document contains the full revised file specification, highlighting the changes from Version 3 to Version 4

PUMA Version 6 Multiplatform with Facilities to be coupled with other Simulation Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grant, Carlos

2013-01-01

PUMA is a code for nuclear reactor calculation used in all nuclear installations in Argentina for simulation of fuel management, power cycles and transient events by means of spatial kinetic diffusion theory in 3D. For the versions used up to now the WINDOWS platform was used with very good results. Nowadays PUMA must work in different operative systems, LINUX among others, and must also have facilities to be coupled with other models. For this reason this new version was reprogrammed in ADA, language oriented to a safe programming and be found in any operative system. In former versions PUMA was executed through macro instructions written in LOGO. For this version it is possible to use also PYTHON, which makes also possible the access in execution time to internal data of PUMA. The use of PYTHON allows a easy way to couple PUMA with other codes. The possibilities of this new version of PUMA are shown by means of examples of input data and process control using PYTHON and LOGO. It is discussed the implementation of this methodology in other codes to be coupled with PUMA for versions run in WINDOWS and LINUX. (author)

Low Dose Radiation Cancer Risks: Epidemiological and Toxicological Models. Final Technical Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoel, David G.

2012-01-01

The basic purpose of this one year research grant was to extend the two stage clonal expansion model (TSCE) of carcinogenesis to exposures other than the usual single acute exposure. The two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis incorporates the biological process of carcinogenesis, which involves two mutations and the clonal proliferation of the intermediate cells, in a stochastic, mathematical way. The current TSCE model serves a general purpose of acute exposure models but requires numerical computation of both the survival and hazard functions. The primary objective of this research project was to develop the analytical expressions for the survival function and the hazard function of the occurrence of the first cancer cell for acute, continuous and multiple exposure cases within the framework of the piece-wise constant parameter two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. For acute exposure and multiple exposures of acute series, it is either only allowed to have the first mutation rate vary with the dose, or to have all the parameters be dose dependent; for multiple exposures of continuous exposures, all the parameters are allowed to vary with the dose. With these analytical functions, it becomes easy to evaluate the risks of cancer and allows one to deal with the various exposure patterns in cancer risk assessment. A second objective was to apply the TSCE model with varing continuous exposures from the cancer studies of inhaled plutonium in beagle dogs. Using step functions to estimate the retention functions of the pulmonary exposure of plutonium the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model was to be used to estimate the beagle dog lung cancer risks. The mathematical equations of the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model were developed. A draft manuscript which is attached provides the results of this mathematical work. The application work using the beagle dog data from plutonium exposure has not been completed due to the fact

Break model comparison in different RELAP5 versions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parzer, I.

2003-01-01

The presented work focuses on the break flow prediction in RELAP5/MOD3 code, which is crucial to predict core uncovering and heatup during the Small Break Loss-of-Coolant Accidents (SB LOCA). The code prediction has been compared to the IAEA-SPE-4 experiments conducted on the PMK-2 integral test facilities in Hungary. The simulations have been performed with MOD3.2.2 Beta, MOD3.2.2 Gamma, MOD3.3 Beta and MOD3.3 frozen code version. In the present work we have compared the Ransom-Trapp and Henry-Fauske break model predictions. Additionally, both model predictions have been compared to itself, when used as the main modeling tool or when used as another code option, as so-called 'secret developmental options' on input card no.1. (author)

MATILDA Version-2: Rough Earth TIALD Model for Laser Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Hilly Terrain - Part II

Science.gov (United States)

2017-07-28

risk assessment for “unsafe” scenarios. Recently, attention in the DoD has turned to Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models [5,6] as an...corresponding to the CRA undershoot boundary. The magenta- coloured line represents the portion of the C-RX(U) circle that would contribute to the...Tertiary Precaution Surface. Undershoot related laser firing restrictions within the green- coloured C-RX(U) can be ignored. Figure 34

Versioning of printed products

Science.gov (United States)

Tuijn, Chris

2005-01-01

During the definition of a printed product in an MIS system, a lot of attention is paid to the production process. The MIS systems typically gather all process-related parameters at such a level of detail that they can determine what the exact cost will be to make a specific product. This information can then be used to make a quote for the customer. Considerably less attention is paid to the content of the products since this does not have an immediate impact on the production costs (assuming that the number of inks or plates is known in advance). The content management is typically carried out either by the prepress systems themselves or by dedicated workflow servers uniting all people that contribute to the manufacturing of a printed product. Special care must be taken when considering versioned products. With versioned products we here mean distinct products that have a number of pages or page layers in common. Typical examples are comic books that have to be printed in different languages. In this case, the color plates can be shared over the different versions and the black plate will be different. Other examples are nation-wide magazines or newspapers that have an area with regional pages or advertising leaflets in different languages or currencies. When considering versioned products, the content will become an important cost factor. First of all, the content management (and associated proofing and approval cycles) becomes much more complex and, therefore, the risk that mistakes will be made increases considerably. Secondly, the real production costs are very much content-dependent because the content will determine whether plates can be shared across different versions or not and how many press runs will be needed. In this paper, we will present a way to manage different versions of a printed product. First, we will introduce a data model for version management. Next, we will show how the content of the different versions can be supplied by the customer

Risk Management Model from the Perspective of the Implementing ISO 9001:2015 Standard Within Financial Services Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cătălina Sitnikov

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In its new form, the ISO 9001:2015 standard activates and utilizes a thought pattern based on risk assessment functioning in parallel with the implementation of the system regarding quality management. Therefore, we strive to identify the risks and opportunities associated with the processes and products needed to create and implement a system of quality management based on the ISO 9001:2015 standard. This standard is defined by a strong client-based orientation, motivation and managerial involvement from the higher levels, as well as a process-based approach and a commitment towards constant improvement. By implementing the requirements of the new version of the ISO 9001:2015 standard, the organisation needs to determine all the processes necessary to the system of quality management, as well as to identify those which include activities dealing with risks and opportunities. Considering the importance and the impact of the requirements of the new version of the ISO 9001:2015 standard, starting from theoretical concepts and underscoring a set of research vectors, a model of financial risk assessment has been devised. The model is based on the correlation which can be established between the multiplicity of components relating to the components of the new standard structure, SL Annex, elements of an approach derived from risk patterns of processes and risk types which are assessed from the perspective of financial services companies.

Accelerator System Model (ASM) user manual with physics and engineering model documentation. ASM version 1.0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-07-01

The Accelerator System Model (ASM) is a computer program developed to model proton radiofrequency accelerators and to carry out system level trade studies. The ASM FORTRAN subroutines are incorporated into an intuitive graphical user interface which provides for the open-quotes constructionclose quotes of the accelerator in a window on the computer screen. The interface is based on the Shell for Particle Accelerator Related Codes (SPARC) software technology written for the Macintosh operating system in the C programming language. This User Manual describes the operation and use of the ASM application within the SPARC interface. The Appendix provides a detailed description of the physics and engineering models used in ASM. ASM Version 1.0 is joint project of G. H. Gillespie Associates, Inc. and the Accelerator Technology (AT) Division of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Neither the ASM Version 1.0 software nor this ASM Documentation may be reproduced without the expressed written consent of both the Los Alamos National Laboratory and G. H. Gillespie Associates, Inc

The breech presentation and the vertex presentation following an external version represent risk factors for neonatal hip instability.

Science.gov (United States)

Andersson, J E; Odén, A

2001-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the frequency and type of hip-joint instability and the frequency of hip dislocation requiring treatment in neonates who had been lying in the breech presentation and were delivered vaginally after an external version or by caesarean section, and to compare them with neonates who were naturally in the vertex presentation. Breech presentations without ongoing labour were subjected to an attempted external version and, in cases where this proved unsuccessful or where labour had started, to deliver by caesarean section. None of the breech presentations was vaginally delivered. The anterior-dynamic ultrasound method was used to assess the hip-joint status of the neonates. Out of 6,571 foetuses, 257 were in breech presentation after 36 wk of pregnancy. Sixty-two were vaginally delivered following an external version to vertex presentation and 195 were delivered by caesarean section, 75 of these following unsuccessful attempts to perform a version. Treatment for congenital hip-joint dislocation was performed on 0.2%. Out of the breech presentations, 1.0% of those delivered by caesarean section were treated, while in those with vaginal delivery following an external version the treatment frequency was 3.2%. No case of late diagnosed hip dislocation was recorded. Significant differences in frequency of hip-joint instability and treatment were found between (i) neonates delivered in breech presentation and those delivered with vertex presentation, (ii) infants delivered in vertex presentation, naturally or after successful version, and (iii) those delivered by caesarean section with or without attempted external version and those delivered with vortex presentation. Breech presentation predisposes to increased hip instability. The instability is present prior to delivery and is certainly not a primary result of delivery forces. Both breech and vertex presentations following an external or spontaneous version should be considered as risk

Version 2.0 of the European Gas Model. Changes and their impact on the German gas sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balmert, David; Petrov, Konstantin

2015-01-01

In January 2015 ACER, the European Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, presented an updated version of its target model for the inner-European natural gas market, also referred to as version 2.0 of the Gas Target Model. During 2014 the existing model, originally developed by the Council of European Energy Regulators (CEER) and launched in 2011, had been analysed, revised and updated in preparation of the new version. While it has few surprises to offer, the new Gas Target Model contains specifies and goes into greater detail on many elements of the original model. Some of the new content is highly relevant to the German gas sector, not least the deliberations on the current key issues, which are security of supply and the ability of the gas markets to function.

Thermal modelling. Preliminary site description Simpevarp subarea - version 1.2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sundberg, Jan; Back, Paer-Erik; Bengtsson, Anna; Laendell, Maerta

2005-08-01

This report presents the thermal site descriptive model for the Simpevarp subarea, version 1.2. The main objective of this report is to present the thermal modelling work where data has been identified, quality controlled, evaluated and summarised in order to make an upscaling to lithological domain level possible. The thermal conductivity at possible canister scale has been modelled for four different lithological domains (RSMA01 (Aevroe granite), RSMB01 (Fine-grained dioritoid), RSMC01 (mixture of Aevroe granite and Quartz monzodiorite), and RSMD01 (Quartz monzodiorite)). A main modelling approach has been used to determine the mean value of the thermal conductivity. Three alternative/complementary approaches have been used to evaluate the spatial variability of the thermal conductivity at domain level. The thermal modelling approaches are based on the lithological model for the Simpevarp subarea, version 1.2 together with rock type models constituted from measured and calculated (from mineral composition) thermal conductivities. For one rock type, the Aevroe granite (501044), density loggings within the specific rock type has also been used in the domain modelling in order to consider the spatial variability within the Aevroe granite. This has been possible due to the presented relationship between density and thermal conductivity, valid for the Aevroe granite. Results indicate that the mean of thermal conductivity is expected to exhibit only a small variation between the different domains, from 2.62 W/(m.K) to 2.80 W/(m.K). The standard deviation varies according to the scale considered and for the canister scale it is expected to range from 0.20 to 0.28 W/(m.K). Consequently, the lower confidence limit (95% confidence) for the canister scale is within the range 2.04-2.35 W/(m.K) for the different domains. The temperature dependence is rather small with a decrease in thermal conductivity of 1.1-3.4% per 100 deg C increase in temperature for the dominating rock

Some Remarks on Stochastic Versions of the Ramsey Growth Model

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sladký, Karel

2012-01-01

Roč. 19, č. 29 (2012), s. 139-152 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/1610; GA ČR GAP402/10/0956; GA ČR GAP402/11/0150 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Economic dynamics * Ramsey growth model with disturbance * stochastic dynamic programming * multistage stochastic programs Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/sladky-some remarks on stochastic versions of the ramsey growth model.pdf

A multisensor evaluation of the asymmetric convective model, version 2, in southeast Texas.

Science.gov (United States)

Kolling, Jenna S; Pleim, Jonathan E; Jeffries, Harvey E; Vizuete, William

2013-01-01

There currently exist a number of planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes that can represent the effects of turbulence in daytime convective conditions, although these schemes remain a large source of uncertainty in meteorology and air quality model simulations. This study evaluates a recently developed combined local and nonlocal closure PBL scheme, the Asymmetric Convective Model, version 2 (ACM2), against PBL observations taken from radar wind profilers, a ground-based lidar, and multiple daytime radiosonde balloon launches. These observations were compared against predictions of PBLs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.1 with the ACM2 PBL scheme option, and the Fifth-Generation Meteorological Model (MM5) version 3.7.3 with the Eta PBL scheme option that is currently being used to develop ozone control strategies in southeast Texas. MM5 and WRF predictions during the regulatory modeling episode were evaluated on their ability to predict the rise and fall of the PBL during daytime convective conditions across southeastern Texas. The MM5 predicted PBLs consistently underpredicted observations, and were also less than the WRF PBL predictions. The analysis reveals that the MM5 predicted a slower rising and shallower PBL not representative of the daytime urban boundary layer. Alternatively, the WRF model predicted a more accurate PBL evolution improving the root mean square error (RMSE), both temporally and spatially. The WRF model also more accurately predicted vertical profiles of temperature and moisture in the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere. Inspection of median surface temperature and moisture time-series plots revealed higher predicted surface temperatures in WRF and more surface moisture in MM5. These could not be attributed to surface heat fluxes, and thus the differences in performance of the WRF and MM5 models are likely due to the PBL schemes. An accurate depiction of the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is

Incorporation of detailed eye model into polygon-mesh versions of ICRP-110 reference phantoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Thang Tat; Yeom, Yeon Soo; Kim, Han Sung; Wang, Zhao Jun; Han, Min Cheol; Kim, Chan Hyeong; Lee, Jai Ki; Zankl, Maria; Petoussi-Henss, Nina; Bolch, Wesley E; Lee, Choonsik; Chung, Beom Sun

2015-11-21

The dose coefficients for the eye lens reported in ICRP 2010 Publication 116 were calculated using both a stylized model and the ICRP-110 reference phantoms, according to the type of radiation, energy, and irradiation geometry. To maintain consistency of lens dose assessment, in the present study we incorporated the ICRP-116 detailed eye model into the converted polygon-mesh (PM) version of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms. After the incorporation, the dose coefficients for the eye lens were calculated and compared with those of the ICRP-116 data. The results showed generally a good agreement between the newly calculated lens dose coefficients and the values of ICRP 2010 Publication 116. Significant differences were found for some irradiation cases due mainly to the use of different types of phantoms. Considering that the PM version of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms preserve the original topology of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms, it is believed that the PM version phantoms, along with the detailed eye model, provide more reliable and consistent dose coefficients for the eye lens.

Shortened version of the work ability index to identify workers at risk of long-term sickness absence.

Science.gov (United States)

Schouten, Lianne S; Bültmann, Ute; Heymans, Martijn W; Joling, Catelijne I; Twisk, Jos W R; Roelen, Corné A M

2016-04-01

The Work Ability Index (WAI) identifies non-sicklisted workers at risk of future long-term sickness absence (LTSA). The WAI is a complicated instrument and inconvenient for use in large-scale surveys. We investigated whether shortened versions of the WAI identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of LTSA. Prospective study including two samples of non-sicklisted workers participating in occupational health checks between 2010 and 2012. A heterogeneous development sample (N= 2899) was used to estimate logistic regression coefficients for the complete WAI, a shortened WAI version without the list of diseases, and single-item Work Ability Score (WAS). These three instruments were calibrated for predictions of different (≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks) LTSA durations in a validation sample of non-sicklisted workers (N= 3049) employed at a steel mill, differentiating between manual (N= 1710) and non-manual (N= 1339) workers. The discriminative ability was investigated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. All three instruments under-predicted the LTSA risks in both manual and non-manual workers. The complete WAI discriminated between individuals at high and low risk of LTSA ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks in manual and non-manual workers. Risk predictions and discrimination by the shortened WAI without the list of diseases were as good as the complete WAI. The WAS showed poorer discrimination in manual and non-manual workers. The WAI without the list of diseases is a good alternative to the complete WAI to identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of future LTSA durations ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Community Land Model Version 3.0 (CLM3.0) Developer's Guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoffman, FM

2004-12-21

This document describes the guidelines adopted for software development of the Community Land Model (CLM) and serves as a reference to the entire code base of the released version of the model. The version of the code described here is Version 3.0 which was released in the summer of 2004. This document, the Community Land Model Version 3.0 (CLM3.0) User's Guide (Vertenstein et al., 2004), the Technical Description of the Community Land Model (CLM) (Oleson et al., 2004), and the Community Land Model's Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM): Technical Description and User's Guide (Levis et al., 2004) provide the developer, user, or researcher with details of implementation, instructions for using the model, a scientific description of the model, and a scientific description of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model integrated with CLM respectively. The CLM is a single column (snow-soil-vegetation) biogeophysical model of the land surface which can be run serially (on a laptop or personal computer) or in parallel (using distributed or shared memory processors or both) on both vector and scalar computer architectures. Written in Fortran 90, CLM can be run offline (i.e., run in isolation using stored atmospheric forcing data), coupled to an atmospheric model (e.g., the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)), or coupled to a climate system model (e.g., the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3)) through a flux coupler (e.g., Coupler 6 (CPL6)). When coupled, CLM exchanges fluxes of energy, water, and momentum with the atmosphere. The horizontal land surface heterogeneity is represented by a nested subgrid hierarchy composed of gridcells, landunits, columns, and plant functional types (PFTs). This hierarchical representation is reflected in the data structures used by the model code. Biophysical processes are simulated for each subgrid unit (landunit, column, and PFT) independently, and prognostic variables are maintained for each subgrid unit

Simulations of the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Using Two Versions of the NASA-GISS ModelE2-R Coupled Model

Science.gov (United States)

Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.; Jonas, J. A.; Dowsett, H. J.; Kelley, M.

2013-01-01

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) bears many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). Both marine and terrestrial data point to high-latitude temperature amplification, including large decreases in sea ice and land ice, as well as expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. Here we present our most recent simulations of the mid-Pliocene climate using the CMIP5 version of the NASAGISS Earth System Model (ModelE2-R). We describe the substantial impact associated with a recent correction made in the implementation of the Gent-McWilliams ocean mixing scheme (GM), which has a large effect on the simulation of ocean surface temperatures, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean. The effect of this correction on the Pliocene climate results would not have been easily determined from examining its impact on the preindustrial runs alone, a useful demonstration of how the consequences of code improvements as seen in modern climate control runs do not necessarily portend the impacts in extreme climates.Both the GM-corrected and GM-uncorrected simulations were contributed to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasize features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. The corrected version yields results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene, especially the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea, which in the new simulation appears to be far more realistic than previously found with older versions of the GISS model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterisations in the ocean model, have led

Simpevarp - site descriptive model version 0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-11-01

During 2002, SKB is starting detailed investigations at two potential sites for a deep repository in the Precambrian rocks of the Fennoscandian Shield. The present report concerns one of those sites, Simpevarp, which lies in the municipality of Oskarshamn, on the southeast coast of Sweden, about 250 kilometres south of Stockholm. The site description will have two main components: a written synthesis of the site, summarising the current state of knowledge, as documented in the databases containing the primary data from the site investigations, and one or several site descriptive models, in which the collected information is interpreted and presented in a form which can be used in numerical models for rock engineering, environmental impact and long-term safety assessments. SKB maintains two main databases at the present time, a site characterisation database called SICADA and a geographic information system called SKB GIS. The site descriptive model will be developed and presented with the aid of the SKB GIS capabilities, and with SKBs Rock Visualisation System (RVS), which is also linked to SICADA. The version 0 model forms an important framework for subsequent model versions, which are developed successively, as new information from the site investigations becomes available. Version 0 is developed out of the information available at the start of the site investigation. In the case of Simpevarp, this is essentially the information which was compiled for the Oskarshamn feasibility study, which led to the choice of that area as a favourable object for further study, together with information collected since its completion. This information, with the exception of the extensive data base from the nearby Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory, is mainly 2D in nature (surface data), and is general and regional, rather than site-specific, in content. Against this background, the present report consists of the following components: an overview of the present content of the databases

Not all risks are equal: the risk taking inventory for high-risk sports.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Tim; Barlow, Matt; Bandura, Comille; Hill, Miles; Kupciw, Dominika; Macgregor, Alexandra

2013-10-01

Although high-risk sport participants are typically considered a homogenous risk-taking population, attitudes to risk within the high-risk domain can vary considerably. As no validated measure allows researchers to assess risk taking within this domain, we validated the Risk Taking Inventory (RTI) for high-risk sport across four studies. The RTI comprises seven items across two factors: deliberate risk taking and precautionary behaviors. In Study 1 (n = 341), the inventory was refined and tested via a confirmatory factor analysis used in an exploratory fashion. The subsequent three studies confirmed the RTI's good model-data fit via three further separate confirmatory factor analyses. In Study 2 (n = 518) and in Study 3 (n = 290), concurrent validity was also confirmed via associations with other related traits (sensation seeking, behavioral activation, behavioral inhibition, impulsivity, self-esteem, extraversion, and conscientiousness). In Study 4 (n = 365), predictive validity was confirmed via associations with mean accidents and mean close calls in the high-risk domain. Finally, in Study 4, the self-report version of the inventory was significantly associated with an informant version of the inventory. The measure will allow researchers and practitioners to investigate risk taking as a variable that is conceptually distinct from participation in a high-risk sport.

Accelerator System Model (ASM) user manual with physics and engineering model documentation. ASM version 1.0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1993-07-01

The Accelerator System Model (ASM) is a computer program developed to model proton radiofrequency accelerators and to carry out system level trade studies. The ASM FORTRAN subroutines are incorporated into an intuitive graphical user interface which provides for the {open_quotes}construction{close_quotes} of the accelerator in a window on the computer screen. The interface is based on the Shell for Particle Accelerator Related Codes (SPARC) software technology written for the Macintosh operating system in the C programming language. This User Manual describes the operation and use of the ASM application within the SPARC interface. The Appendix provides a detailed description of the physics and engineering models used in ASM. ASM Version 1.0 is joint project of G. H. Gillespie Associates, Inc. and the Accelerator Technology (AT) Division of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Neither the ASM Version 1.0 software nor this ASM Documentation may be reproduced without the expressed written consent of both the Los Alamos National Laboratory and G. H. Gillespie Associates, Inc.

Digital elevation models for site investigation programme in Oskarshamn. Site description version 1.2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brydsten, Lars; Stroemgren, Maarten

2005-06-01

In the Oskarshamn area, a digital elevation model has been produced using elevation data from many elevation sources on both land and sea. Many elevation model users are only interested in elevation models over land, so the model has been designed in three versions: Version 1 describes land surface, lake water surface, and sea bottom. Version 2 describes land surface, sediment levels at lake bottoms, and sea bottoms. Version 3 describes land surface, sediment levels at lake bottoms, and sea surface. In cases where the different sources of data were not in point form 'such as existing elevation models of land or depth lines from nautical charts' they have been converted to point values using GIS software. Because data from some sources often overlaps with data from other sources, several tests were conducted to determine if both sources of data or only one source would be included in the dataset used for the interpolation procedure. The tests resulted in the decision to use only the source judged to be of highest quality for most areas with overlapping data sources. All data were combined into a database of approximately 3.3 million points unevenly spread over an area of about 800 km 2 . The large number of data points made it difficult to construct the model with a single interpolation procedure, the area was divided into 28 sub-models that were processed one by one and finally merged together into one single model. The software ArcGis 8.3 and its extension Geostatistical Analysis were used for the interpolation. The Ordinary Kriging method was used for interpolation. This method allows both a cross validation and a validation before the interpolation is conducted. Cross validation with different Kriging parameters were performed and the model with the most reasonable statistics was chosen. Finally, a validation with the most appropriate Kriging parameters was performed in order to verify that the model fit unmeasured localities. Since both the quality and the

[Consequences of errors in the translation of questionnaires: Spanish version of Downton index].

Science.gov (United States)

Aranda-Gallardo, M; Morales-Asencio, J M; Canca-Sánchez, J C; Morales-Fernández, Á; Enríquez de Luna-Rodríguez, M; Moya-Suarez, A B; Mora-Banderas, A M; Pérez-Jiménez, C; Barrero-Sojo, S

2015-01-01

The application of screening tools to detect the risk of falls in hospitalized patients is in general use. During the development of a systematic review a serious disparity in three items of the Spanish version of the Downton index was detected, compared to the original version. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of this error and to compare the estimated risk of falls with each of these versions, its validity and internal consistency. A descriptive cross-sectional study in acute hospitalised patients was performed during 2011 in Hospital Costa del Sol, Marbella. The patients' risk of falling was assessed by the Spanish version of the Downton index, and then it was re-calculated according to the items in the original version. Sensitivity, specificity and Cronbach's alpha were calculated. Application of the original version of the index reduced the number of patients classified as "high risk" of falling by 24.2%. With the Spanish version of the tool, the possibility of being classed as "high risk" of falling was considerably 3.3 times higher (OR: 3.3). Both versions of the Downton index showed low accuracy and diagnostic validity. The sensitivity of the original scale was 28% and specificity of 82%. Its internal consistency was low (Cronbach's alpha: .51). The Downton index, given its poor accuracy and diagnostic validity, low internal consistency, and the significant error observed in its Spanish translation, is not the most appropriate tool to assess the risk of falls in hospitalised acute patients. Copyright © 2014 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Thermal modelling. Preliminary site description Simpevarp subarea - version 1.2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sundberg, Jan; Back, Paer-Erik; Bengtsson, Anna; Laendell, Maerta [Geo Innova AB, Linkoeping (Sweden)

2005-08-15

This report presents the thermal site descriptive model for the Simpevarp subarea, version 1.2. The main objective of this report is to present the thermal modelling work where data has been identified, quality controlled, evaluated and summarised in order to make an upscaling to lithological domain level possible. The thermal conductivity at possible canister scale has been modelled for four different lithological domains (RSMA01 (Aevroe granite), RSMB01 (Fine-grained dioritoid), RSMC01 (mixture of Aevroe granite and Quartz monzodiorite), and RSMD01 (Quartz monzodiorite)). A main modelling approach has been used to determine the mean value of the thermal conductivity. Three alternative/complementary approaches have been used to evaluate the spatial variability of the thermal conductivity at domain level. The thermal modelling approaches are based on the lithological model for the Simpevarp subarea, version 1.2 together with rock type models constituted from measured and calculated (from mineral composition) thermal conductivities. For one rock type, the Aevroe granite (501044), density loggings within the specific rock type has also been used in the domain modelling in order to consider the spatial variability within the Aevroe granite. This has been possible due to the presented relationship between density and thermal conductivity, valid for the Aevroe granite. Results indicate that the mean of thermal conductivity is expected to exhibit only a small variation between the different domains, from 2.62 W/(m.K) to 2.80 W/(m.K). The standard deviation varies according to the scale considered and for the canister scale it is expected to range from 0.20 to 0.28 W/(m.K). Consequently, the lower confidence limit (95% confidence) for the canister scale is within the range 2.04-2.35 W/(m.K) for the different domains. The temperature dependence is rather small with a decrease in thermal conductivity of 1.1-3.4% per 100 deg C increase in temperature for the dominating rock

Thermal modelling. Preliminary site description Laxemar subarea - version 1.2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sundberg, Jan; Wrafter, John; Back, Paer-Erik; Laendell, Maerta [Geo Innova AB, Linkoeping (Sweden)

2006-02-15

This report presents the thermal site descriptive model for the Laxemar subarea, version 1.2. The main objective of this report is to present the thermal modelling work where data has been identified, quality controlled, evaluated and summarised in order to make an upscaling to lithological domain level possible. The thermal conductivity at canister scale has been modelled for five different lithological domains: RSMA (Aevroe granite), RSMBA (mixture of Aevroe granite and fine-grained dioritoid), RSMD (quartz monzodiorite), RSME (diorite/gabbro) and RSMM (mix domain with high frequency of diorite to gabbro). A base modelling approach has been used to determine the mean value of the thermal conductivity. Four alternative/complementary approaches have been used to evaluate the spatial variability of the thermal conductivity at domain level. The thermal modelling approaches are based on the lithological domain model for the Laxemar subarea, version 1.2 together with rock type models based on measured and calculated (from mineral composition) thermal conductivities. For one rock type, Aevroe granite (501044), density loggings have also been used in the domain modelling in order to evaluate the spatial variability within the Aevroe granite. This has been possible due to an established relationship between density and thermal conductivity, valid for the Aevroe granite. Results indicate that the means of thermal conductivity for the various domains are expected to exhibit a variation from 2.45 W/(m.K) to 2.87 W/(m.K). The standard deviation varies according to the scale considered, and for the 0.8 m scale it is expected to range from 0.17 to 0.29 W/(m.K). Estimates of lower tail percentiles for the same scale are presented for all five domains. The temperature dependence is rather small with a decrease in thermal conductivity of 1.1-5.3% per 100 deg C increase in temperature for the dominant rock types. There are a number of important uncertainties associated with these

Effect of regional anesthesia on the success rate of external cephalic version: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Goetzinger, Katherine R; Harper, Lorie M; Tuuli, Methodius G; Macones, George A; Colditz, Graham A

2011-11-01

To estimate whether the use of regional anesthesia is associated with increased success of external cephalic version. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and clinical trial registries. Electronic databases were searched from 1966 through April 2011 for published, randomized controlled trials in the English language comparing regional anesthesia with no regional anesthesia for external cephalic version. The primary outcome was external cephalic version success. Secondary outcomes included cesarean delivery, maternal discomfort, and adverse events. Pooled risk ratios (relative risk) were calculated using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochran's Q statistic and quantified using the I Z method. Six randomized controlled trials met criteria for study inclusion. Regional anesthesia was associated with a higher external cephalic version success rate compared with intravenous or no analgesia (59.7% compared with 37.6%; pooled relative risk 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-1.93). This significant association persisted when the data were stratified by type of regional anesthesia (spinal compared with epidural). The number needed to treat with regional anesthesia to achieve one additional successful external cephalic version was five. There was no evidence of statistical heterogeneity (P=.32, I Z=14.9%) or publication bias (Harbord test P=.78). There was no statistically significant difference in the risk of cesarean delivery comparing regional anesthesia with intravenous or no analgesia (48.4% compared with 59.3%; pooled relative risk 0.80; 95% CI 0.55-1.17). Adverse events were rare and not significantly different between the two groups. Regional anesthesia is associated with a higher success rate of external cephalic version.

A p-version embedded model for simulation of concrete temperature fields with cooling pipes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheng Qiang

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Pipe cooling is an effective method of mass concrete temperature control, but its accurate and convenient numerical simulation is still a cumbersome problem. An improved embedded model, considering the water temperature variation along the pipe, was proposed for simulating the temperature field of early-age concrete structures containing cooling pipes. The improved model was verified with an engineering example. Then, the p-version self-adaption algorithm for the improved embedded model was deduced, and the initial values and boundary conditions were examined. Comparison of some numerical samples shows that the proposed model can provide satisfying precision and a higher efficiency. The analysis efficiency can be doubled at the same precision, even for a large-scale element. The p-version algorithm can fit grids of different sizes for the temperature field simulation. The convenience of the proposed algorithm lies in the possibility of locating more pipe segments in one element without the need of so regular a shape as in the explicit model.

The comparison of CAP88-PC version 2.0 versus CAP88-PC version 1.0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yakubovich, B.A.; Klee, K.O.; Palmer, C.R.; Spotts, P.B.

1997-12-01

40 CFR Part 61 (Subpart H of the NESHAP) requires DOE facilities to use approved sampling procedures, computer models, or other approved procedures when calculating Effective Dose Equivalent (EDE) values to members of the public. Currently version 1.0 of the approved computer model CAP88-PC is used to calculate EDE values. The DOE has upgraded the CAP88-PC software to version 2.0. This version provides simplified data entry, better printing characteristics, the use of a mouse, and other features. The DOE has developed and released version 2.0 for testing and comment. This new software is a WINDOWS based application that offers a new graphical user interface with new utilities for preparing and managing population and weather data, and several new decay chains. The program also allows the user to view results before printing. This document describes a test that confirmed CAP88-PC version 2.0 generates results comparable to the original version of the CAP88-PC program

External cephalic version facilitation for breech presentation at term.

Science.gov (United States)

Hofmeyr, G J

2001-01-01

Tocolytic drugs to relax the uterus as well as other methods have been also used in an attempt to facilitate external cephalic version at term. The objective of this review is to assess the effects of routine tocolysis, fetal acoustic stimulation, epidural or spinal analgesia and transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term on successful version and measures of pregnancy outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group Trials Register and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Date of last search: April 2001. Randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing routine versus selective tocolysis; fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions versus dummy or no stimulation; epidural or spinal analgesia versus no regional analgesia; or transabdominal amnioinfusion versus no amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by the reviewer. In seven trials, routine tocolysis was associated with fewer failures of external cephalic version (relative risk 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.87). There were no significant differences between non-cephalic presentations at birth. Caesarean sections were reduced (relative risk 0.85, confidence interval 0.72-0.99). Fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions was associated with fewer failures of external cephalic version at term (relative risk 0.17, 95% confidence interval 0.05 to 0.60). With epidural or spinal analgesia, external cephalic version failure, non-cephalic births and caesarean sections were reduced in one trial but not the other. The overall differences were not statistically significant. No randomised trials of transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term were located. Routine tocolysis appears to reduce the failure rate of external cephalic version at term. Although promising, there is not enough evidence to evaluate the use of fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal

User's guide to the Yucca Mountain Integrating Model (YMIM) Version 2.1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gansemer, J.; Lamont, A.

1995-04-01

The Yucca Mountain Integrating Model (YMIM) is an integrated model of the engineered barrier system. It contains models of the processes of waste container failure and nuclide release from the fuel rods. YMIM is driven by scenarios of container and rod temperature, near-field chemistry, and near-field hydrology provided by other modules. It is designed to be highly modular so that a model of an individual process can be easily modified to replaced without interfering with the models of other processes. This manual describes the process models and provides instructions for setting up and running YMIM Version 2.1

External cephalic version-related risks: a meta-analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grootscholten, K.; Kok, M.; Oei, S.G.; Mol, B.W.J.; Post, van der J.A.

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the literature on external cephalic version–related complications and to assess if the outcome of a version attempt is related to complications. DATA SOURCES: In March 2007 we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials.

GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

Science.gov (United States)

Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

2015-12-01

Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ

Digital elevation models for site investigation programme in Oskarshamn. Site description version 1.2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brydsten, Lars; Stroemgren, Maarten [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Biology and Environmental Science

2005-06-01

In the Oskarshamn area, a digital elevation model has been produced using elevation data from many elevation sources on both land and sea. Many elevation model users are only interested in elevation models over land, so the model has been designed in three versions: Version 1 describes land surface, lake water surface, and sea bottom. Version 2 describes land surface, sediment levels at lake bottoms, and sea bottoms. Version 3 describes land surface, sediment levels at lake bottoms, and sea surface. In cases where the different sources of data were not in point form 'such as existing elevation models of land or depth lines from nautical charts' they have been converted to point values using GIS software. Because data from some sources often overlaps with data from other sources, several tests were conducted to determine if both sources of data or only one source would be included in the dataset used for the interpolation procedure. The tests resulted in the decision to use only the source judged to be of highest quality for most areas with overlapping data sources. All data were combined into a database of approximately 3.3 million points unevenly spread over an area of about 800 km{sup 2}. The large number of data points made it difficult to construct the model with a single interpolation procedure, the area was divided into 28 sub-models that were processed one by one and finally merged together into one single model. The software ArcGis 8.3 and its extension Geostatistical Analysis were used for the interpolation. The Ordinary Kriging method was used for interpolation. This method allows both a cross validation and a validation before the interpolation is conducted. Cross validation with different Kriging parameters were performed and the model with the most reasonable statistics was chosen. Finally, a validation with the most appropriate Kriging parameters was performed in order to verify that the model fit unmeasured localities. Since both the

Sovereign risk and macroeconomic fluctuations in an emerging market economy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kirchner, M.; Rieth, M.

2010-01-01

This paper assesses the role of sovereign risk in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Turkey. We estimate two versions of a simple New Keynesian small open economy model on quarterly data for the period 1994Q3-2008Q2: a basic version and a version augmented by a default premium on government

Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María

2012-08-01

This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Incremental testing of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ modeling system version 4.7

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. M. Foley

2010-03-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the scientific and structural updates to the latest release of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ modeling system version 4.7 (v4.7 and points the reader to additional resources for further details. The model updates were evaluated relative to observations and results from previous model versions in a series of simulations conducted to incrementally assess the effect of each change. The focus of this paper is on five major scientific upgrades: (a updates to the heterogeneous N₂O₅ parameterization, (b improvement in the treatment of secondary organic aerosol (SOA, (c inclusion of dynamic mass transfer for coarse-mode aerosol, (d revisions to the cloud model, and (e new options for the calculation of photolysis rates. Incremental test simulations over the eastern United States during January and August 2006 are evaluated to assess the model response to each scientific improvement, providing explanations of differences in results between v4.7 and previously released CMAQ model versions. Particulate sulfate predictions are improved across all monitoring networks during both seasons due to cloud module updates. Numerous updates to the SOA module improve the simulation of seasonal variability and decrease the bias in organic carbon predictions at urban sites in the winter. Bias in the total mass of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5 is dominated by overpredictions of unspeciated PM_2.5 (PM_other in the winter and by underpredictions of carbon in the summer. The CMAQv4.7 model results show slightly worse performance for ozone predictions. However, changes to the meteorological inputs are found to have a much greater impact on ozone predictions compared to changes to the CMAQ modules described here. Model updates had little effect on existing biases in wet deposition predictions.

Regulators as agents: Modelling personality and power as evidence is brokered to support decisions on environmental risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davies, G.J. [Cranfield University, Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures, School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield MK43 0AL (United Kingdom); Kendall, G. [University of Nottingham, School of Computer Science, Nottingham NG8 1BB (United Kingdom); University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Jalan Broga, 43500 Semenyih, Selangor Darul Ehsan (Malaysia); Soane, E. [London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Management, London WC2A 2AE (United Kingdom); Li, J. [University of Nottingham, School of Computer Science, Nottingham NG8 1BB (United Kingdom); Rocks, S.A.; Jude, S.R. [Cranfield University, Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures, School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield MK43 0AL (United Kingdom); Pollard, S.J.T., E-mail: s.pollard@cranfield.ac.uk [Cranfield University, Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures, School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield MK43 0AL (United Kingdom)

2014-01-01

Complex regulatory decisions about risk rely on the brokering of evidence between providers and recipients, and involve personality and power relationships that influence the confidence that recipients may place in the sufficiency of evidence and, therefore, the decision outcome. We explore these relationships in an agent-based model; drawing on concepts from environmental risk science, decision psychology and computer simulation. A two-agent model that accounts for the sufficiency of evidence is applied to decisions about salt intake, animal carcass disposal and radioactive waste. A dynamic version of the model assigned personality traits to agents, to explore their receptivity to evidence. Agents with ‘aggressor’ personality sets were most able to imbue fellow agents with enhanced receptivity (with ‘avoider’ personality sets less so) and clear confidence in the sufficiency of evidence. In a dynamic version of the model, when both recipient and provider were assigned the ‘aggressor’ personality set, this resulted in 10 successful evidence submissions in 71 days, compared with 96 days when both agents were assigned the ‘avoider’ personality set. These insights suggest implications for improving the efficiency and quality of regulatory decision making by understanding the role of personality and power. - Highlights: •The role of personality and power in regulatory decision-making is poorly represented. •We built a rudimentary two-agent model to explore environmental risk decisions. •Our two agent model accounted for decisions about the sufficiency of evidence. •We examined the influence personality and power has on confidence gained. •By giving agents personality we might predict the time taken to reach consensus.

Regulators as agents: Modelling personality and power as evidence is brokered to support decisions on environmental risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davies, G.J.; Kendall, G.; Soane, E.; Li, J.; Rocks, S.A.; Jude, S.R.; Pollard, S.J.T.

2014-01-01

Complex regulatory decisions about risk rely on the brokering of evidence between providers and recipients, and involve personality and power relationships that influence the confidence that recipients may place in the sufficiency of evidence and, therefore, the decision outcome. We explore these relationships in an agent-based model; drawing on concepts from environmental risk science, decision psychology and computer simulation. A two-agent model that accounts for the sufficiency of evidence is applied to decisions about salt intake, animal carcass disposal and radioactive waste. A dynamic version of the model assigned personality traits to agents, to explore their receptivity to evidence. Agents with ‘aggressor’ personality sets were most able to imbue fellow agents with enhanced receptivity (with ‘avoider’ personality sets less so) and clear confidence in the sufficiency of evidence. In a dynamic version of the model, when both recipient and provider were assigned the ‘aggressor’ personality set, this resulted in 10 successful evidence submissions in 71 days, compared with 96 days when both agents were assigned the ‘avoider’ personality set. These insights suggest implications for improving the efficiency and quality of regulatory decision making by understanding the role of personality and power. - Highlights: •The role of personality and power in regulatory decision-making is poorly represented. •We built a rudimentary two-agent model to explore environmental risk decisions. •Our two agent model accounted for decisions about the sufficiency of evidence. •We examined the influence personality and power has on confidence gained. •By giving agents personality we might predict the time taken to reach consensus

Modeling runoff and erosion risk in a~small steep cultivated watershed using different data sources: from on-site measurements to farmers' perceptions

Science.gov (United States)

Auvet, B.; Lidon, B.; Kartiwa, B.; Le Bissonnais, Y.; Poussin, J.-C.

2015-09-01

This paper presents an approach to model runoff and erosion risk in a context of data scarcity, whereas the majority of available models require large quantities of physical data that are frequently not accessible. To overcome this problem, our approach uses different sources of data, particularly on agricultural practices (tillage and land cover) and farmers' perceptions of runoff and erosion. The model was developed on a small (5 ha) cultivated watershed characterized by extreme conditions (slopes of up to 55 %, extreme rainfall events) on the Merapi volcano in Indonesia. Runoff was modelled using two versions of STREAM. First, a lumped version was used to determine the global parameters of the watershed. Second, a distributed version used three parameters for the production of runoff (slope, land cover and roughness), a precise DEM, and the position of waterways for runoff distribution. This information was derived from field observations and interviews with farmers. Both surface runoff models accurately reproduced runoff at the outlet. However, the distributed model (Nash-Sutcliffe = 0.94) was more accurate than the adjusted lumped model (N-S = 0.85), especially for the smallest and biggest runoff events, and produced accurate spatial distribution of runoff production and concentration. Different types of erosion processes (landslides, linear inter-ridge erosion, linear erosion in main waterways) were modelled as a combination of a hazard map (the spatial distribution of runoff/infiltration volume provided by the distributed model), and a susceptibility map combining slope, land cover and tillage, derived from in situ observations and interviews with farmers. Each erosion risk map gives a spatial representation of the different erosion processes including risk intensities and frequencies that were validated by the farmers and by in situ observations. Maps of erosion risk confirmed the impact of the concentration of runoff, the high susceptibility of long steep

MACCS version 1.5.11.1: A maintenance release of the code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chanin, D.; Foster, J.; Rollstin, J.; Miller, L.

1993-10-01

A new version of the MACCS code (version 1.5.11.1) has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories under sponsorship of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. MACCS was developed to support evaluations of the off-site consequences from hypothetical severe accidents at commercial power plants. MACCS is the only current public domain code in the US that embodies all of the following modeling capabilities: (1) weather sampling using a year of recorded weather data; (2) mitigative actions such as evacuation, sheltering, relocation, decontamination, and interdiction; (3) economic costs of mitigative actions; (4) cloudshine, groundshine, and inhalation pathways as well as food and water ingestion; (5) calculation of both individual and societal doses to various organs; and (6) calculation of both acute (nonstochastic) and latent (stochastic) health effects and risks of health effects. All of the consequence measures may be fun generated in the form of a complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). The current version implements a revised cancer model consistent with recent reports such as BEIR V and ICRP 60. In addition, a number of error corrections and portability enhancements have been implemented. This report describes only the changes made in creating the new version. Users of the code will need to obtain the code's original documentation, NUREG/CR-4691

Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.4)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blackburn, C.; Cillan, T.

1993-09-01

The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.4 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement. Those interested in using the SWPM database should refer to the SWPM Database User's Guide. This document is available from the PNL Task M Project Manager (D. L. Stiles, 509-372-4358), the PNL Task L Project Manager (L. L. Armacost, 509-372-4304), the WHC Restoration Projects Section Manager (509-372-1443), or the WHC Waste Characterization Manager (509-372-1193)

A comparison of modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide.

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, Kevin L; Firestone, Philip; Bradford, John M; Greenberg, David M; Broom, Ian

2002-07-01

The predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sex offenders, modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, was examined and compared in a sample of 258 adult male sex offenders. In addition, the independent contributions to the prediction of recidivism made by each instrument and by various phallometric indices were explored. Both instruments demonstrated moderate levels of predictive accuracy for sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism. They were not significantly different in terms of their predictive accuracy for sexual or violent recidivism, nor did they contribute independently to the prediction of sexual or violent recidivism. Of the phallometric indices examined, only the pedophile index added significantly to the prediction of sexual recidivism, but not violent recidivism, above the Static-99 alone.

Labour Outcomes After Successful External Cephalic Version Compared With Spontaneous Cephalic Version.

Science.gov (United States)

Krueger, Samantha; Simioni, Julia; Griffith, Lauren E; Hutton, Eileen K

2018-01-01

This study sought to compare obstetrical outcomes for women with a cephalic presentation at birth resulting from successful external cephalic version (ECV) compared to those resulting from spontaneous cephalic version (SCV). Secondary analysis was performed on Early External Cephalic Version Trial data. A total of 931 study participants had breech presentations between 34 and 36 weeks' gestation and cephalic presentations at birth. The incidence of intrapartum interventions was compared between patients with successful ECV (557) and those with SCV (374). A generalized linear mixed model was used to determine ORs for our primary outcomes. Parity, maternal BMI, previous CS, and enrolment centre were controlled for in the analysis. No differences were found after ECV compared with SCV in the incidence of CS (96 of 557 and 76 of 374, respectively; adjusted OR [aOR] 0.89; 95% CI 0.63-1.26), instrumental birth (68 of 557 and 29 of 373, respectively; aOR 1.55; 95% CI 0.96-2.50), or normal vaginal birth (393 of 557 and 268 of 373, respectively; aOR 0.92; 95% CI 0.68-1.24). Multiparous women with successful ECV were half as likely to require a CS compared with those with SCV and no ECV (28 of 313 and 42 of 258, respectively; aOR 0.45; 95% CI 0.26-0.80). This is the first study to compare birth outcomes of breech pregnancies that convert to cephalic presentation by means of SCV with birth outcomes of breech pregnancies that have ECV. Women with a cephalic-presenting fetus at birth as a result of successful ECV are not at greater risk of obstetrical interventions at birth when compared with women with fetuses who spontaneously turn to a cephalic presentation in the third trimester. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Advances in Disaster Modeling, Simulation and Visualization for Sandstorm Risk Management in North China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hang Lei

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Dust storms in North China result in high concentrations of airborne dust particles, which cause detrimental effects on human health as well as social and economic losses and environmental degradation. To investigate the impact of land surface processes on dust storms, we simulate two dust storm events in North China during spring 2002 using two versions of a dust storm prediction system developed by the Institute for Atmospheric Physics (IAP in Beijing, China. The primary difference between the IAP Sandstorm Prediction System (IAPS 1.0 and more recent version (IAPS 2.0 is the land surface modeling. IAPS 1.0 is based on the Oregon State University (OSU land surface model, whereas the latest version of the dust storm prediction (IAPS 2.0 uses NOAH land surface schemes for land surface modeling within a meteorological model, MM5. This work investigates whether the improved land surface modeling affects modeling of sandstorms. It is shown that an integrated sandstorm management system can be used to aid the following tasks: ensure sandstorm monitoring and warning; incorporate weather forecasts; ascertain the risk of a sandstorm disaster; integrate multiple technologies (for example, GIS, remote sensing, and information processing technology; track the progress of the storm in real-time; exhibit flexibility, accuracy and reliability (by using multiple sources of data, including in-situ meteorological observations; and monitor PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 dust concentrations in airborne dustfalls. The results indicate that with the new land surface scheme, the simulation of soil moisture is greatly improved, leading to a better estimate of the threshold frictional velocity, a key parameter for the estimating surface dust emissions. In this study, we also discuss specific mechanisms by which land surface processes affect dust storm modeling and make recommendations for further improvements to numerical dust storm simulations.

Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

Science.gov (United States)

Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

2015-02-01

BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

COMODI: an ontology to characterise differences in versions of computational models in biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Scharm, Martin; Waltemath, Dagmar; Mendes, Pedro; Wolkenhauer, Olaf

2016-07-11

Open model repositories provide ready-to-reuse computational models of biological systems. Models within those repositories evolve over time, leading to different model versions. Taken together, the underlying changes reflect a model's provenance and thus can give valuable insights into the studied biology. Currently, however, changes cannot be semantically interpreted. To improve this situation, we developed an ontology of terms describing changes in models. The ontology can be used by scientists and within software to characterise model updates at the level of single changes. When studying or reusing a model, these annotations help with determining the relevance of a change in a given context. We manually studied changes in selected models from BioModels and the Physiome Model Repository. Using the BiVeS tool for difference detection, we then performed an automatic analysis of changes in all models published in these repositories. The resulting set of concepts led us to define candidate terms for the ontology. In a final step, we aggregated and classified these terms and built the first version of the ontology. We present COMODI, an ontology needed because COmputational MOdels DIffer. It empowers users and software to describe changes in a model on the semantic level. COMODI also enables software to implement user-specific filter options for the display of model changes. Finally, COMODI is a step towards predicting how a change in a model influences the simulation results. COMODI, coupled with our algorithm for difference detection, ensures the transparency of a model's evolution, and it enhances the traceability of updates and error corrections. COMODI is encoded in OWL. It is openly available at http://comodi.sems.uni-rostock.de/ .

GOOSE Version 1.4: A powerful object-oriented simulation environment for developing reactor models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nypaver, D.J.; March-Leuba, C.; Abdalla, M.A.; Guimaraes, L.

1992-01-01

A prototype software package for a fully interactive Generalized Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (GOOSE) is being developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Dynamic models are easily constructed and tested; fully interactive capabilities allow the user to alter model parameters and complexity without recompilation. This environment provides assess to powerful tools such as numerical integration packages, graphical displays, and online help. In GOOSE, portability has been achieved by creating the environment in Objective-C 1 , which is supported by a variety of platforms including UNIX and DOS. GOOSE Version 1.4 introduces new enhancements like the capability of creating ''initial,'' ''dynamic,'' and ''digital'' methods. The object-oriented approach to simulation used in GOOSE combines the concept of modularity with the additional features of allowing precompilation, optimization, testing, and validation of individual modules. Once a library of classes has been defined and compiled, models can be built and modified without recompilation. GOOSE Version 1.4 is primarily command-line driven

Towards New Empirical Versions of Financial and Accounting Models Corrected for Measurement Errors

OpenAIRE

Francois-Éric Racicot; Raymond Théoret; Alain Coen

2006-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new empirical version of the Fama and French Model based on the Hausman (1978) specification test and aimed at discarding measurement errors in the variables. The proposed empirical framework is general enough to be used for correcting other financial and accounting models of measurement errors. Removing measurement errors is important at many levels as information disclosure, corporate governance and protection of investors.

Description of Multimedia Environment Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) version 3.2 modification for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buck, J.W.; Strenge, D.L.; Hoopes, B.L.

1997-11-01

The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) is a software tool developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to allow DOE to conduct human health risk analyses nation-wide. This report describes modifications to the MEPAS to meet the requirements of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff in their analyses of Site Decommissioning Management Plan sites. In general, these modifications provide the MEPAS, Version 3.2, with the capability of calculating and reporting annual dose/risk information. Modifications were made to the exposure pathway and health impact modules and the water and atmospheric transport modules. Several example cases used to test the MEPAS, Version 3.2, are also presented. The MEPAS, Version 3.2, also contains a new source-term release component that includes models for estimating contaminant loss from three different types of source zones (contaminated aquifer, contaminated pond/surface impoundment, and contaminated vadose zone) due to decay/degradation, leaching, wind suspension, water erosion, overland flow, and/or volatilization. When multiple loss routes are assumed to occur simultaneously, the models account for their interaction and calculate an appropriate pollutant mass budget to each loss route over time

Approaches in highly parameterized inversion—PEST++ Version 3, a Parameter ESTimation and uncertainty analysis software suite optimized for large environmental models

Science.gov (United States)

Welter, David E.; White, Jeremy T.; Hunt, Randall J.; Doherty, John E.

2015-09-18

The PEST++ Version 1 object-oriented parameter estimation code is here extended to Version 3 to incorporate additional algorithms and tools to further improve support for large and complex environmental modeling problems. PEST++ Version 3 includes the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) algorithm for nonlinear parameter estimation, Tikhonov regularization, integrated linear-based uncertainty quantification, options of integrated TCP/IP based parallel run management or external independent run management by use of a Version 2 update of the GENIE Version 1 software code, and utilities for global sensitivity analyses. The Version 3 code design is consistent with PEST++ Version 1 and continues to be designed to lower the barriers of entry for users as well as developers while providing efficient and optimized algorithms capable of accommodating large, highly parameterized inverse problems. As such, this effort continues the original focus of (1) implementing the most popular and powerful features of the PEST software suite in a fashion that is easy for novice or experienced modelers to use and (2) developing a software framework that is easy to extend.

Description and evaluation of the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. K. Emmons

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4 is an offline global chemical transport model particularly suited for studies of the troposphere. The updates of the model from its previous version MOZART-2 are described, including an expansion of the chemical mechanism to include more detailed hydrocarbon chemistry and bulk aerosols. Online calculations of a number of processes, such as dry deposition, emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes and photolysis frequencies, are now included. Results from an eight-year simulation (2000–2007 are presented and evaluated. The MOZART-4 source code and standard input files are available for download from the NCAR Community Data Portal (http://cdp.ucar.edu.

Atmospheric radionuclide transport model with radon postprocessor and SBG module. Model description version 2.8.0; ARTM. Atmosphaerisches Radionuklid-Transport-Modell mit Radon Postprozessor und SBG-Modul. Modellbeschreibung zu Version 2.8.0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Richter, Cornelia; Sogalla, Martin; Thielen, Harald; Martens, Reinhard

2015-04-20

The study on the atmospheric radionuclide transport model with radon postprocessor and SBG module (model description version 2.8.0) covers the following issues: determination of emissions, radioactive decay, atmospheric dispersion calculation for radioactive gases, atmospheric dispersion calculation for radioactive dusts, determination of the gamma cloud radiation (gamma submersion), terrain roughness, effective source height, calculation area and model points, geographic reference systems and coordinate transformations, meteorological data, use of invalid meteorological data sets, consideration of statistical uncertainties, consideration of housings, consideration of bumpiness, consideration of terrain roughness, use of frequency distributions of the hourly dispersion situation, consideration of the vegetation period (summer), the radon post processor radon.exe, the SBG module, modeling of wind fields, shading settings.

Neuraxial blockade for external cephalic version: Cost analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamasato, Kelly; Kaneshiro, Bliss; Salcedo, Jennifer

2015-07-01

Neuraxial blockade (epidural or spinal anesthesia/analgesia) with external cephalic version increases the external cephalic version success rate. Hospitals and insurers may affect access to neuraxial blockade for external cephalic version, but the costs to these institutions remain largely unstudied. The objective of this study was to perform a cost analysis of neuraxial blockade use during external cephalic version from hospital and insurance payer perspectives. Secondarily, we estimated the effect of neuraxial blockade on cesarean delivery rates. A decision-analysis model was developed using costs and probabilities occurring prenatally through the delivery hospital admission. Model inputs were derived from the literature, national databases, and local supply costs. Univariate and bivariate sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess model robustness. Neuraxial blockade was cost saving to both hospitals ($30 per delivery) and insurers ($539 per delivery) using baseline estimates. From both perspectives, however, the model was sensitive to multiple variables. Monte Carlo simulation indicated neuraxial blockade to be more costly in approximately 50% of scenarios. The model demonstrated that routine use of neuraxial blockade during external cephalic version, compared to no neuraxial blockade, prevented 17 cesarean deliveries for every 100 external cephalic versions attempted. Neuraxial blockade is associated with minimal hospital and insurer cost changes in the setting of external cephalic version, while reducing the cesarean delivery rate. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research © 2015 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Version pressure feedback mechanisms for speculative versioning caches

Science.gov (United States)

Eichenberger, Alexandre E.; Gara, Alan; O& #x27; Brien, Kathryn M.; Ohmacht, Martin; Zhuang, Xiaotong

2013-03-12

Mechanisms are provided for controlling version pressure on a speculative versioning cache. Raw version pressure data is collected based on one or more threads accessing cache lines of the speculative versioning cache. One or more statistical measures of version pressure are generated based on the collected raw version pressure data. A determination is made as to whether one or more modifications to an operation of a data processing system are to be performed based on the one or more statistical measures of version pressure, the one or more modifications affecting version pressure exerted on the speculative versioning cache. An operation of the data processing system is modified based on the one or more determined modifications, in response to a determination that one or more modifications to the operation of the data processing system are to be performed, to affect the version pressure exerted on the speculative versioning cache.

Systems analysis programs for hands-on integrated reliability evaluations (SAPHIRE) version 5.0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; Kvarfordt, K.J.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.

1994-07-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), primarily for nuclear power plants. This volume is the reference manual for the Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System Version 5.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a open-quotes familyclose quotes [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. The SARA database contains PRA data primarily for the dominant accident sequences of a family and descriptive information about the family including event trees, fault trees, and system model diagrams. The number of facility databases that can be accessed is limited only by the amount of disk storage available. To simulate changes to family systems, SARA users change the failure rates of initiating and basic events and/or modify the structure of the cut sets that make up the event trees, fault trees, and systems. The user then evaluates the effects of these changes through the recalculation of the resultant accident sequence probabilities and importance measures. The results are displayed in tables and graphs that may be printed for reports. A preliminary version of the SARA program was completed in August 1985 and has undergone several updates in response to user suggestions and to maintain compatibility with the other SAPHIRE programs. Version 5.0 of SARA provides the same capability as earlier versions and adds the ability to process unlimited cut sets; display fire, flood, and seismic data; and perform more powerful cut set editing

On Modeling Risk Shocks

OpenAIRE

Dorofeenko, Victor; Lee, Gabriel; Salyer, Kevin; Strobel, Johannes

2016-01-01

Within the context of a financial accelerator model, we model time-varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) through the use of a mixture Normal model with time variation in the weights applied to the underlying distributions characterizing entrepreneur productivity. Specifically, we model capital producers (i.e. the entrepreneurs) as either low-risk (relatively small second moment for productivity) and high-risk (relatively large second moment for productivity) and the fraction of both types is...

National Insect and Disease Risk Map (NIDRM)--cutting edge software for rapid insect and disease risk model development

Science.gov (United States)

Frank J. Krist

2010-01-01

The Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) of the U.S. Forest Service is leading an effort to produce the next version of the National Insect and Disease Risk Map (NIDRM) for targeted release in 2011. The goal of this effort is to update spatial depictions of risk of tree mortality based on: (1) newly derived 240-m geospatial information depicting the...

Construction of Site Risk Model using Individual Unit Risk Model in a NPP Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

Since Fukushima accident, strong needs to estimate site risk has been increased to identify the possibility of re-occurrence of such a tremendous disaster and prevent such a disaster. Especially, in a site which has large fleet of nuclear power plants, reliable site risk assessment is very emergent to confirm the safety. In Korea, there are several nuclear power plant site which have more than 6 NPPs. In general, risk model of a NPP in terms of PSA is very complicated and furthermore, it is expected that the site risk model is more complex than that. In this paper, the method for constructing site risk model is proposed by using individual unit risk model. Procedure for the development of site damage (risk) model was proposed in the present paper. Since the site damage model is complicated in the sense of the scale of the system and dependency of the components of the system, conventional method may not be applicable in many side of the problem.

Custom v. Standardized Risk Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zura Kakushadze

2015-05-01

Full Text Available We discuss when and why custom multi-factor risk models are warranted and give source code for computing some risk factors. Pension/mutual funds do not require customization but standardization. However, using standardized risk models in quant trading with much shorter holding horizons is suboptimal: (1 longer horizon risk factors (value, growth, etc. increase noise trades and trading costs; (2 arbitrary risk factors can neutralize alpha; (3 “standardized” industries are artificial and insufficiently granular; (4 normalization of style risk factors is lost for the trading universe; (5 diversifying risk models lowers P&L correlations, reduces turnover and market impact, and increases capacity. We discuss various aspects of custom risk model building.

Analysis of Handling Processes of Record Versions in NoSQL Databases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu. A. Grigorev

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This article investigates the handling processes versions of a record in NoSQL databases. The goal of this work is to develop a model, which enables users both to handle record versions and work with a record simultaneously. This model allows us to estimate both a time distribution for users to handle record versions and a distribution of the count of record versions. With eventual consistency (W=R=1 there is a possibility for several users to update any record simultaneously. In this case, several versions of records with the same key will be stored in database. When reading, the user obtains all versions, handles them, and saves a new version, while older versions are deleted. According to the model, the user’s time for handling the record versions consists of two parts: random handling time of each version and random deliberation time for handling a result. Record saving time and records deleting time are much less than handling time, so, they are ignored in the model. The paper offers two model variants. According to the first variant, client's handling time of one record version is calculated as the sum of random handling times of one version based on the count of record versions. This variant ignores explicitly the fact that handling time of record versions may depend on the update count, performed by the other users between the sequential updates of the record by the current client. So there is the second variant, which takes this feature into consideration. The developed models were implemented in the GPSS environment. The model experiments with different counts of clients and different ratio between one record handling time and results deliberation time were conducted. The analysis showed that despite the resemblance of model variants, a difference in change nature between average values of record versions count and handling time is significant. In the second variant dependences of the average count of record versions in database and

Simulated pre-industrial climate in Bergen Climate Model (version 2: model description and large-scale circulation features

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. H. Otterå

2009-11-01

Full Text Available The Bergen Climate Model (BCM is a fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice model that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climate. Here, a pre-industrial multi-century simulation with an updated version of BCM is described and compared to observational data. The model is run without any form of flux adjustments and is stable for several centuries. The simulated climate reproduces the general large-scale circulation in the atmosphere reasonably well, except for a positive bias in the high latitude sea level pressure distribution. Also, by introducing an updated turbulence scheme in the atmosphere model a persistent cold bias has been eliminated. For the ocean part, the model drifts in sea surface temperatures and salinities are considerably reduced compared to earlier versions of BCM. Improved conservation properties in the ocean model have contributed to this. Furthermore, by choosing a reference pressure at 2000 m and including thermobaric effects in the ocean model, a more realistic meridional overturning circulation is simulated in the Atlantic Ocean. The simulated sea-ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere is in general agreement with observational data except for summer where the extent is somewhat underestimated. In the Southern Hemisphere, large negative biases are found in the simulated sea-ice extent. This is partly related to problems with the mixed layer parametrization, causing the mixed layer in the Southern Ocean to be too deep, which in turn makes it hard to maintain a realistic sea-ice cover here. However, despite some problematic issues, the pre-industrial control simulation presented here should still be appropriate for climate change studies requiring multi-century simulations.

Extensions of the Rosner-Colditz breast cancer prediction model to include older women and type-specific predicted risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Glynn, Robert J; Colditz, Graham A; Tamimi, Rulla M; Chen, Wendy Y; Hankinson, Susan E; Willett, Walter W; Rosner, Bernard

2017-08-01

A breast cancer risk prediction rule previously developed by Rosner and Colditz has reasonable predictive ability. We developed a re-fitted version of this model, based on more than twice as many cases now including women up to age 85, and further extended it to a model that distinguished risk factor prediction of tumors with different estrogen/progesterone receptor status. We compared the calibration and discriminatory ability of the original, the re-fitted, and the type-specific models. Evaluation used data from the Nurses' Health Study during the period 1980-2008, when 4384 incident invasive breast cancers occurred over 1.5 million person-years. Model development used two-thirds of study subjects and validation used one-third. Predicted risks in the validation sample from the original and re-fitted models were highly correlated (ρ = 0.93), but several parameters, notably those related to use of menopausal hormone therapy and age, had different estimates. The re-fitted model was well-calibrated and had an overall C-statistic of 0.65. The extended, type-specific model identified several risk factors with varying associations with occurrence of tumors of different receptor status. However, this extended model relative to the prediction of any breast cancer did not meaningfully reclassify women who developed breast cancer to higher risk categories, nor women remaining cancer free to lower risk categories. The re-fitted Rosner-Colditz model has applicability to risk prediction in women up to age 85, and its discrimination is not improved by consideration of varying associations across tumor subtypes.

Feasibility Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Decision Support Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

2010-01-01

informed decision support towards decision-makers and stakeholders in terms of accumulated descending graphs. The decision support method developed in this paper aims to provide assistance in the analysis and ultimately the choice of action, while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding any transport......This paper presents the final version of the CBA-DK decision support model for assessment of transport projects. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval...... result, and the determination of suitable probability distributions. Use is made of the reference class forecasting information, such as that developed in Optimism Bias for adjustments to investment decisions that relate to all modes of transport. The CBA-DK decision support model results in more...

Technical Note: Description and assessment of a nudged version of the new dynamics Unified Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Morgenstern

2008-03-01

Full Text Available We present a "nudged" version of the Met Office general circulation model, the Unified Model. We constrain this global climate model using ERA-40 re-analysis data with the aim of reproducing the observed "weather" over a year from September 1999. Quantitative assessments are made of its performance, focusing on dynamical aspects of nudging and demonstrating that the "weather" is well simulated.

Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping using GIS, modeling and a fuzzy logic tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Nobre, R C M; Rotunno Filho, O C; Mansur, W J; Nobre, M M M; Cosenza, C A N

2007-12-07

A groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping assessment, based on a source-pathway-receptor approach, is presented for an urban coastal aquifer in northeastern Brazil. A modified version of the DRASTIC methodology was used to map the intrinsic and specific groundwater vulnerability of a 292 km(2) study area. A fuzzy hierarchy methodology was adopted to evaluate the potential contaminant source index, including diffuse and point sources. Numerical modeling was performed for delineation of well capture zones, using MODFLOW and MODPATH. The integration of these elements provided the mechanism to assess groundwater pollution risks and identify areas that must be prioritized in terms of groundwater monitoring and restriction on use. A groundwater quality index based on nitrate and chloride concentrations was calculated, which had a positive correlation with the specific vulnerability index.

Preliminary site description Forsmark area - version 1.1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-03-01

This report presents the interim version (model version 1.1) of the preliminary Site Descriptive Model for Forsmark. The basis for this interim version is quality-assured, geoscientific and ecological field data from Forsmark that were available in the SKB databases SICADA and GIS at April 30, 2003 as well as version 0 of the Site Descriptive Model. The new data acquired during the initial site investigation phase to the date of data freeze 1.1 constitute the basis for the updating of version 0 to version 1.1. These data originate from surface investigations on the candidate area with its regional environment and from drilling and investigations in boreholes. The surface-based data sets were rather extensive whereas the data sets from boreholes were limited to information from one 1,000 m deep cored borehole (KFM01A) and eight 150 to 200 m deep percussion-drilled boreholes in the Forsmark candidate area. Discipline specific models are developed for a selected regional and local model volume and these are then integrated into a site description. The current methodologies for developing the discipline specific models and the integration of these are documented in methodology reports or strategy reports. In the present work, the guidelines given in those reports were followed to the extent possible with the data and information available at the time for data freeze for model version 1.1. Compared with version 0 there are considerable additional features in the version 1.1, especially in the geological description and in the description of the near surface. The geological models of lithology and deformation zones are based on borehole information and much higher resolution surface data. The existence of highly fractured sub-horizontal zones has been verified and these are now part of the model of the deformation zones. A discrete fracture network (DFN) model has also been developed. The rock mechanics model is based on strength information from SFR and an empirical

Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination (Open Access Publisher’s Version)

Science.gov (United States)

2017-09-14

2014. [24] “United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision,” http...Research Article Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination Colleen Burgess,1,2 Andrew Burgess,2 and...for polio transmission within military populations interacting with locals in a polio-endemic region to evaluate changes in vaccination policy

[Fetal version as ambulatory intervention].

Science.gov (United States)

Nohe, G; Hartmann, W; Klapproth, C E

1996-06-01

The external cephalic version (ECV) of the fetus at term reduces the maternal and fetal risks of intrapartum breech presentation and Caesarean delivery. Since 1986 over 800 external cephalic versions were performed in the outpatient Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology of the Städtische Frauenklinik Stuttgart. 60.5% were successful. NO severe complications occurred. Sufficient amniotic fluid as well as the mobility of the fetal breech is a major criterion for the success of the ECV. Management requires a safe technique for mother and fetus. This includes ultrasonography, elektronic fetal monitoring and the ability to perform immediate caesarean delivery as well as the performance of ECV without analgesicas and sedatives. More than 70% of the ECV were successful without tocolysis. In unsuccessful cases the additional use of tocolysis improves the success rate only slightly. Therefore routine use of tocolysis does not appear necessary. External cephalic version can be recommended as an outpatient treatment without tocolysis.

RAMS Model for Terrestrial Pathways Version 3. 0 (for microcomputers). Model-Simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Niebla, E.

1989-01-01

The RAMS Model for Terrestrial Pathways is a computer program for calculation of numeric criteria for land application and distribution and marketing of sludges under the sewage-sludge regulations at 40 CFR Part 503. The risk-assessment models covered assume that municipal sludge with specified characteristics is spread across a defined area of ground at a known rate once each year for a given number of years. Risks associated with direct land application of sludge applied after distribution and marketing are both calculated. The computer program calculates the maximum annual loading of contaminants that can be land applied and still meet the risk criteria specified as input. Software Description: The program is written in the Turbo/Basic programming language for implementation on IBM PC/AT or compatible machines using DOS 3.0 or higher operating system. Minimum core storage is 512K.

Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1992-01-01

The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

Overview of the plant risk status information management system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, J.R.; Campbell, D.J.

1987-01-01

The Plant Risk Status Information Management System (PRISIM) is a personal computer program that presents PRA results and related information for use by decision-makers. The program was originally developed for NRC inspectors, but now an expanded version of the program with more potential applications is complete. Prototypes of both versions have been developed for Arkansas Nuclear One - Unit 1, and the inspection-related version is currently being field-tested. Interim results of these field tests are favorable. The PRISIM database contains both pre-processed information that is useful for long-term planning and a plant risk model for assessing the risk implications of the current plant status. The program provides rapid access to specific information by making extensive use of menus. Development of PRISIM programs for Peach Bottom-Unit 2 is underway, and there are plans to create programs for other plants

Preliminary site description Forsmark area - version 1.1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-03-01

This report presents the interim version (model version 1.1) of the preliminary Site Descriptive Model for Forsmark. The basis for this interim version is quality-assured, geoscientific and ecological field data from Forsmark that were available in the SKB databases SICADA and GIS at April 30, 2003 as well as version 0 of the Site Descriptive Model. The new data acquired during the initial site investigation phase to the date of data freeze 1.1 constitute the basis for the updating of version 0 to version 1.1. These data originate from surface investigations on the candidate area with its regional environment and from drilling and investigations in boreholes. The surface-based data sets were rather extensive whereas the data sets from boreholes were limited to information from one 1,000 m deep cored borehole (KFM01A) and eight 150 to 200 m deep percussion-drilled boreholes in the Forsmark candidate area. Discipline specific models are developed for a selected regional and local model volume and these are then integrated into a site description. The current methodologies for developing the discipline specific models and the integration of these are documented in methodology reports or strategy reports. In the present work, the guidelines given in those reports were followed to the extent possible with the data and information available at the time for data freeze for model version 1.1. Compared with version 0 there are considerable additional features in the version 1.1, especially in the geological description and in the description of the near surface. The geological models of lithology and deformation zones are based on borehole information and much higher resolution surface data. The existence of highly fractured sub-horizontal zones has been verified and these are now part of the model of the deformation zones. A discrete fracture network (DFN) model has also been developed. The rock mechanics model is based on strength information from SFR and an empirical

An improved risk-explicit interval linear programming model for pollution load allocation for watershed management.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Bisheng; Qian, Xin; Yao, Hong

2017-11-01

Although the risk-explicit interval linear programming (REILP) model has solved the problem of having interval solutions, it has an equity problem, which can lead to unbalanced allocation between different decision variables. Therefore, an improved REILP model is proposed. This model adds an equity objective function and three constraint conditions to overcome this equity problem. In this case, pollution reduction is in proportion to pollutant load, which supports balanced development between different regional economies. The model is used to solve the problem of pollution load allocation in a small transboundary watershed. Compared with the REILP original model result, our model achieves equity between the upstream and downstream pollutant loads; it also overcomes the problem of greatest pollution reduction, where sources are nearest to the control section. The model provides a better solution to the problem of pollution load allocation than previous versions.

MATILDA Version 2: Rough Earth TIALD Model for Laser Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Hilly Terrain - Part I

Science.gov (United States)

2017-03-13

support of airborne laser designator use during test and training exercises on military ranges. The initial MATILDA tool, MATILDA PRO Version-1.6.1...2]. The use of the ALARP principle in UK hazard assessment arises from the provisions of the UK Health and Safety at Work Act of 1974 [18]. Given...The product of the probabilistic fault/failure laser hazard analysis is the ex- pectation value: the likelihood that an unprotected observer outside

Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

1990-01-01

Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

Enigma Version 12

Science.gov (United States)

Shores, David; Goza, Sharon P.; McKeegan, Cheyenne; Easley, Rick; Way, Janet; Everett, Shonn; Guerra, Mark; Kraesig, Ray; Leu, William

2013-01-01

Enigma Version 12 software combines model building, animation, and engineering visualization into one concise software package. Enigma employs a versatile user interface to allow average users access to even the most complex pieces of the application. Using Enigma eliminates the need to buy and learn several software packages to create an engineering visualization. Models can be created and/or modified within Enigma down to the polygon level. Textures and materials can be applied for additional realism. Within Enigma, these models can be combined to create systems of models that have a hierarchical relationship to one another, such as a robotic arm. Then these systems can be animated within the program or controlled by an external application programming interface (API). In addition, Enigma provides the ability to use plug-ins. Plugins allow the user to create custom code for a specific application and access the Enigma model and system data, but still use the Enigma drawing functionality. CAD files can be imported into Enigma and combined to create systems of computer graphics models that can be manipulated with constraints. An API is available so that an engineer can write a simulation and drive the computer graphics models with no knowledge of computer graphics. An animation editor allows an engineer to set up sequences of animations generated by simulations or by conceptual trajectories in order to record these to highquality media for presentation. Enigma Version 12 Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas 28 NASA Tech Briefs, September 2013 Planetary Protection Bioburden Analysis Program NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California This program is a Microsoft Access program that performed statistical analysis of the colony counts from assays performed on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) spacecraft to determine the bioburden density, 3-sigma biodensity, and the total bioburdens required for the MSL prelaunch reports. It also contains numerous

Credit Risk Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lando, David

Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers...... and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand...

GENII Version 2 Software Design Document

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Napier, Bruce A.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Ramsdell, James V.; Eslinger, Paul W.; Fosmire, Christian J.

2004-03-08

This document describes the architectural design for the GENII-V2 software package. This document defines details of the overall structure of the software, the major software components, their data file interfaces, and specific mathematical models to be used. The design represents a translation of the requirements into a description of the software structure, software components, interfaces, and necessary data. The design focuses on the major components and data communication links that are key to the implementation of the software within the operating framework. The purpose of the GENII-V2 software package is to provide the capability to perform dose and risk assessments of environmental releases of radionuclides. The software also has the capability of calculating environmental accumulation and radiation doses from surface water, groundwater, and soil (buried waste) media when an input concentration of radionuclide in these media is provided. This report represents a detailed description of the capabilities of the software product with exact specifications of mathematical models that form the basis for the software implementation and testing efforts. This report also presents a detailed description of the overall structure of the software package, details of main components (implemented in the current phase of work), details of data communication files, and content of basic output reports. The GENII system includes the capabilities for calculating radiation doses following chronic and acute releases. Radionuclide transport via air, water, or biological activity may be considered. Air transport options include both puff and plume models, each allow use of an effective stack height or calculation of plume rise from buoyant or momentum effects (or both). Building wake effects can be included in acute atmospheric release scenarios. The code provides risk estimates for health effects to individuals or populations; these can be obtained using the code by applying

Predictive Accuracy of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender Version Risk and Change Scores in Treated Canadian Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Sexual Offenders.

Science.gov (United States)

Olver, Mark E; Sowden, Justina N; Kingston, Drew A; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gordon, Audrey; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Wong, Stephen C P

2018-04-01

The present study examined the predictive properties of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) risk and change scores among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal sexual offenders in a combined sample of 1,063 Canadian federally incarcerated men. All men participated in sexual offender treatment programming through the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) at sites across its five regions. The Static-99R was also examined for comparison purposes. In total, 393 of the men were identified as Aboriginal (i.e., First Nations, Métis, Circumpolar) while 670 were non-Aboriginal and primarily White. Aboriginal men scored significantly higher on the Static-99R and VRS-SO and had higher rates of sexual and violent recidivism; however, there were no significant differences between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal groups on treatment change with both groups demonstrating close to a half-standard deviation of change pre and post treatment. VRS-SO risk and change scores significantly predicted sexual and violent recidivism over fixed 5- and 10-year follow-ups for both racial/ancestral groups. Cox regression survival analyses also demonstrated positive treatment changes to be significantly associated with reductions in sexual and violent recidivism among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal men after controlling baseline risk. A series of follow-up Cox regression analyses demonstrated that risk and change score information accounted for much of the observed differences between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal men in rates of sexual recidivism; however, marked group differences persisted in rates of general violent recidivism even after controlling for these covariates. The results support the predictive properties of VRS-SO risk and change scores with treated Canadian Aboriginal sexual offenders.

Simulating the 2012 High Plains Drought Using Three Single Column Model Versions of the Community Earth System Model (SCM-CESM)

Science.gov (United States)

Medina, I. D.; Denning, S.

2014-12-01

The impact of changes in the frequency and severity of drought on fresh water sustainability is a great concern for many regions of the world. One such location is the High Plains, where the local economy is primarily driven by fresh water withdrawals from the Ogallala Aquifer, which accounts for approximately 30% of total irrigation withdrawals from all U.S. aquifers combined. Modeling studies that focus on the feedback mechanisms that control the climate and eco-hydrology during times of drought are limited in the sense that they use conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs) with grid length scales ranging from one hundred to several hundred kilometers. Additionally, these models utilize crude statistical parameterizations of cloud processes for estimating sub-grid fluxes of heat and moisture and have a poor representation of land surface heterogeneity. For this research, we focus on the 2012 High Plains drought, and will perform numerical simulations using three single column model versions of the Community Earth System Model (SCM-CESM) at multiple sites overlying the Ogallala Aquifer for the 2010-2012 period. In the first version of SCM-CESM, CESM will be used in standard mode (Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) coupled to a single instance of the Community Land Model (CLM)), secondly, CESM will be used in Super-Parameterized mode (SP-CESM), where a cloud resolving model (CRM consists of 32 atmospheric columns) replaces the standard CAM atmospheric parameterization and is coupled to a single instance of CLM, and thirdly, CESM is used in "Multi Instance" SP-CESM mode, where an instance of CLM is coupled to each CRM column of SP-CESM (32 CRM columns coupled to 32 instances of CLM). To assess the physical realism of the land-atmosphere feedbacks simulated at each site by all versions of SCM-CESM, differences in simulated energy and moisture fluxes will be computed between years for the 2010-2012 period, and will be compared to differences calculated using

User's guide to the MESOI diffusion model: Version 1.1 (for Data General Eclipse S/230 with AFOS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Athey, G.F.; Ramsdell, J.V.

1982-09-01

MESOI is an interactive, Langrangian puff trajectory model. The model theory is documented separately (Ramsdell and Athey, 1981). Version 1.1 is a modified form of the original 1.0. It is designed to run on a Data General Eclipse computer. The model has improved support features which make it useful as an emergency response tool. This report is intended to provide the user with the information necessary to successfully conduct model simulations using MESOI Version 1.1 and to use the support programs STAPREP and EXPLT. The user is also provided information on the use of the data file maintenance and review program UPDATE. Examples are given for the operation of the program. Test data sets are described which allow the user to practice with the programs and to confirm proper implementation and execution

Hydrogeochemical evaluation of the Forsmark site, model version 1.1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laaksoharju, Marcus (ed.) [GeoPoint AB, Sollentuna (Sweden); Gimeno, Maria; Auque, Luis; Gomez, Javier [Univ. of Zaragoza (Spain). Dept. of Earth Sciences; Smellie, John [Conterra AB, Uppsala (Sweden); Tullborg, Eva-Lena [Terralogica AB, Graabo (Sweden); Gurban, Ioana [3D-Terra, Montreal (Canada)

2004-01-01

Siting studies for SKB's programme of deep geological disposal of nuclear fuel waste currently involves the investigation of two locations, Forsmark and Simpevarp, on the eastern coast of Sweden to determine their geological, geochemical and hydrogeological characteristics. Present work completed has resulted in model version 1.1 which represents the first evaluation of the available Forsmark groundwater analytical data collected up to May 1, 2003 (i.e. the first 'data freeze'). The HAG group had access to a total of 456 water samples collected mostly from the surface and sub-surface environment (e.g. soil pipes in the overburden, streams and lakes); only a few samples were collected from drilled boreholes. The deepest samples reflected depths down to 200 m. Furthermore, most of the waters sampled (74%) lacked crucial analytical information that restricted the evaluation. Consequently, model version 1.1 focussed on the processes taking place in the uppermost part of the bedrock rather than at repository levels. The complex groundwater evolution and patterns at Forsmark are a result of many factors such as: a) the flat topography and closeness to the Baltic Sea resulting in relative small hydrogeological driving forces which can preserve old water types from being flushed out, b) the changes in hydrogeology related to glaciation/deglaciation and land uplift, c) repeated marine/lake water regressions/transgressions, and d) organic or inorganic alteration of the groundwater caused by microbial processes or water/rock interactions. The sampled groundwaters reflect to various degrees modern or ancient water/rock interactions and mixing processes. Based on the general geochemical character and the apparent age two major water types occur in Forsmark: fresh-meteoric waters with a bicarbonate imprint and low residence times (tritium values above detection limit), and brackish-marine waters with Cl contents up to 6,000 mg/L and longer residence times (tritium

Statistical models for competing risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sather, H.N.

1976-08-01

Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

New Source Term Model for the RESRAD-OFFSITE Code Version 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, Charley [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Gnanapragasam, Emmanuel [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Cheng, Jing-Jy [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kamboj, Sunita [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Chen, Shih-Yew [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2013-06-01

This report documents the new source term model developed and implemented in Version 3 of the RESRAD-OFFSITE code. This new source term model includes: (1) "first order release with transport" option, in which the release of the radionuclide is proportional to the inventory in the primary contamination and the user-specified leach rate is the proportionality constant, (2) "equilibrium desorption release" option, in which the user specifies the distribution coefficient which quantifies the partitioning of the radionuclide between the solid and aqueous phases, and (3) "uniform release" option, in which the radionuclides are released from a constant fraction of the initially contaminated material during each time interval and the user specifies the duration over which the radionuclides are released.

A new version of code Java for 3D simulation of the CCA model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Kebo; Xiong, Hailing; Li, Chao

2016-07-01

In this paper we present a new version of the program of CCA model. In order to benefit from the advantages involved in the latest technologies, we migrated the running environment from JDK1.6 to JDK1.7. And the old program was optimized into a new framework, so promoted extendibility.

MESOI Version 2.0: an interactive mesoscale Lagrangian puff dispersion model with deposition and decay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramsdell, J.V.; Athey, G.F.; Glantz, C.S.

1983-11-01

MESOI Version 2.0 is an interactive Lagrangian puff model for estimating the transport, diffusion, deposition and decay of effluents released to the atmosphere. The model is capable of treating simultaneous releases from as many as four release points, which may be elevated or at ground-level. The puffs are advected by a horizontal wind field that is defined in three dimensions. The wind field may be adjusted for expected topographic effects. The concentration distribution within the puffs is initially assumed to be Gaussian in the horizontal and vertical. However, the vertical concentration distribution is modified by assuming reflection at the ground and the top of the atmospheric mixing layer. Material is deposited on the surface using a source depletion, dry deposition model and a washout coefficient model. The model also treats the decay of a primary effluent species and the ingrowth and decay of a single daughter species using a first order decay process. This report is divided into two parts. The first part discusses the theoretical and mathematical bases upon which MESOI Version 2.0 is based. The second part contains the MESOI computer code. The programs were written in the ANSI standard FORTRAN 77 and were developed on a VAX 11/780 computer. 43 references, 14 figures, 13 tables

Nuclear criticality safety handbook. Version 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-03-01

The Nuclear Criticality Safety Handbook, Version 2 essentially includes the description of the Supplement Report to the Nuclear Criticality Safety Handbook, released in 1995, into the first version of Nuclear Criticality Safety Handbook, published in 1988. The following two points are new: (1) exemplifying safety margins related to modelled dissolution and extraction processes, (2) describing evaluation methods and alarm system for criticality accidents. Revision is made based on previous studies for the chapter that treats modelling the fuel system: e.g., the fuel grain size that the system can be regarded as homogeneous, non-uniformity effect of fuel solution, and burnup credit. This revision solves the inconsistencies found in the first version between the evaluation of errors found in JACS code system and criticality condition data that were calculated based on the evaluation. (author)

Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kerkhof, F.L.J.

2003-01-01

Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming-Chang LEE

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

Version 2.0 of the European Gas Model. Changes and their impact on the German gas sector; Das europaeische Gas Target Model 2.0. Aenderungen und Auswirkungen auf den deutschen Gassektor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Balmert, David; Petrov, Konstantin [DNV GL, Bonn (Germany)

2015-06-15

In January 2015 ACER, the European Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, presented an updated version of its target model for the inner-European natural gas market, also referred to as version 2.0 of the Gas Target Model. During 2014 the existing model, originally developed by the Council of European Energy Regulators (CEER) and launched in 2011, had been analysed, revised and updated in preparation of the new version. While it has few surprises to offer, the new Gas Target Model contains specifies and goes into greater detail on many elements of the original model. Some of the new content is highly relevant to the German gas sector, not least the deliberations on the current key issues, which are security of supply and the ability of the gas markets to function.

Probabilistic Model for Integrated Assessment of the Behavior at the T.D.P. Version 2; Modelo Probabilista de Evaluación Integrada del Comportamiento de la P.D.T. Versión 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.; Recreo, F

2015-07-01

This report documents the completion of the first phase of the implementation of the methodology ABACO2G (Bayes Application to Geological Storage of CO2) and the final version of the ABACO2G probabilistic model for the injection phase before its future validation in the experimental field of the Technology Development Plant in Hontom (Burgos). The model, which is based on the determination of the probabilistic risk component of a geological storage of CO2 using the formalism of Bayesian networks and Monte Carlo probability yields quantitative probability functions of the total system CO2 storage and of each one of their subsystems (storage subsystem and the primary seal; secondary containment subsystem and dispersion subsystem or tertiary one); the implementation of the stochastic time evolution of the CO2 plume during the injection period, the stochastic time evolution of the drying front, the probabilistic evolution of the pressure front, decoupled from the CO2 plume progress front, and the implementation of submodels and leakage probability functions through major leakage risk elements (fractures / faults and wells / deep boreholes) which together define the space of events to estimate the risks associated with the CO2 geological storage system. The activities included in this report have been to replace the previous qualitative estimation submodels of former ABACO2G version developed during Phase I of the project ALM-10-017, by analytical, semi-analytical or numerical submodels for the main elements of risk (wells and fractures), to obtain an integrated probabilistic model of a CO2 storage complex in carbonate formations that meets the needs of the integrated behavior evaluation of the Technology Development Plant in Hontomín.

A RETRAN-02 model of the Sizewell B PCSR design - the Winfrith one-loop model, version 3.0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinnersly, S.R.

1983-11-01

A one-loop RETRAN-02 model of the Sizewell B Pre Construction Safety Report (PCSR) design, set up at Winfrith, is described and documented. The model is suitable for symmetrical pressurised transients. Comparison with data from the Sizewell B PCSR shows that the model is a good representation of that design. Known errors, limitations and deficiencies are described. The mode of storage and maintenance at Winfrith using PROMUS (Program Maintenance and Update System) is noted. It is recommended that users modify the standard data by adding replacement cards to the end so as to aid in identification, use and maintenance of local versions. (author)

Site investigation SFR. Hydrogeological modelling of SFR. Model version 0.2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oehman, Johan (Golder Associates AB (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic (Sweden))

2010-01-15

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has conducted site investigations for a planned extension of the existing final repository for short-lived radioactive waste (SFR). A hydrogeological model is developed in three model versions, which will be used for safety assessment and design analyses. This report presents a data analysis of the currently available hydrogeological data from the ongoing Site Investigation SFR (KFR27, KFR101, KFR102A, KFR102B, KFR103, KFR104, and KFR105). The purpose of this work is to develop a preliminary hydrogeological Discrete Fracture Network model (hydro-DFN) parameterisation that can be applied in regional-scale modelling. During this work, the Geologic model had not yet been updated for the new data set. Therefore, all analyses were made to the rock mass outside Possible Deformation Zones, according to Single Hole Interpretation. Owing to this circumstance, it was decided not to perform a complete hydro-DFN calibration at this stage. Instead focus was re-directed to preparatory test cases and conceptual questions with the aim to provide a sound strategy for developing the hydrogeological model SFR v. 1.0. The presented preliminary hydro-DFN consists of five fracture sets and three depth domains. A statistical/geometrical approach (connectivity analysis /Follin et al. 2005/) was performed to estimate the size (i.e. fracture radius) distribution of fractures that are interpreted as Open in geologic mapping of core data. Transmissivity relations were established based on an assumption of a correlation between the size and evaluated specific capacity of geologic features coupled to inflows measured by the Posiva Flow Log device (PFL-f data). The preliminary hydro-DFN was applied in flow simulations in order to test its performance and to explore the role of PFL-f data. Several insights were gained and a few model technical issues were raised. These are summarised in Table 5-1

Site investigation SFR. Hydrogeological modelling of SFR. Model version 0.2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oehman, Johan; Follin, Sven

2010-01-01

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has conducted site investigations for a planned extension of the existing final repository for short-lived radioactive waste (SFR). A hydrogeological model is developed in three model versions, which will be used for safety assessment and design analyses. This report presents a data analysis of the currently available hydrogeological data from the ongoing Site Investigation SFR (KFR27, KFR101, KFR102A, KFR102B, KFR103, KFR104, and KFR105). The purpose of this work is to develop a preliminary hydrogeological Discrete Fracture Network model (hydro-DFN) parameterisation that can be applied in regional-scale modelling. During this work, the Geologic model had not yet been updated for the new data set. Therefore, all analyses were made to the rock mass outside Possible Deformation Zones, according to Single Hole Interpretation. Owing to this circumstance, it was decided not to perform a complete hydro-DFN calibration at this stage. Instead focus was re-directed to preparatory test cases and conceptual questions with the aim to provide a sound strategy for developing the hydrogeological model SFR v. 1.0. The presented preliminary hydro-DFN consists of five fracture sets and three depth domains. A statistical/geometrical approach (connectivity analysis /Follin et al. 2005/) was performed to estimate the size (i.e. fracture radius) distribution of fractures that are interpreted as Open in geologic mapping of core data. Transmissivity relations were established based on an assumption of a correlation between the size and evaluated specific capacity of geologic features coupled to inflows measured by the Posiva Flow Log device (PFL-f data). The preliminary hydro-DFN was applied in flow simulations in order to test its performance and to explore the role of PFL-f data. Several insights were gained and a few model technical issues were raised. These are summarised in Table 5-1

Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; Chapman, Peter; Grimm, Volker

2010-04-01

Ecological risk assessments of pesticides usually focus on risk at the level of individuals, and are carried out by comparing exposure and toxicological endpoints. However, in most cases the protection goal is populations rather than individuals. On the population level, effects of pesticides depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on factors such as life history characteristics, population structure, timing of application, presence of refuges in time and space, and landscape structure. Ecological models can integrate such factors and have the potential to become important tools for the prediction of population-level effects of exposure to pesticides, thus allowing extrapolations, for example, from laboratory to field. Indeed, a broad range of ecological models have been applied to chemical risk assessment in the scientific literature, but so far such models have only rarely been used to support regulatory risk assessments of pesticides. To better understand the reasons for this situation, the current modeling practice in this field was assessed in the present study. The scientific literature was searched for relevant models and assessed according to nine characteristics: model type, model complexity, toxicity measure, exposure pattern, other factors, taxonomic group, risk assessment endpoint, parameterization, and model evaluation. The present study found that, although most models were of a high scientific standard, many of them would need modification before they are suitable for regulatory risk assessments. The main shortcomings of currently available models in the context of regulatory pesticide risk assessments were identified. When ecological models are applied to regulatory risk assessments, we recommend reviewing these models according to the nine characteristics evaluated here. (c) 2010 SETAC.

Model Risk in Portfolio Optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Stefanovits

2014-08-01

Full Text Available We consider a one-period portfolio optimization problem under model uncertainty. For this purpose, we introduce a measure of model risk. We derive analytical results for this measure of model risk in the mean-variance problem assuming we have observations drawn from a normal variance mixture model. This model allows for heavy tails, tail dependence and leptokurtosis of marginals. The results show that mean-variance optimization is seriously compromised by model uncertainty, in particular, for non-Gaussian data and small sample sizes. To mitigate these shortcomings, we propose a method to adjust the sample covariance matrix in order to reduce model risk.

Criterion of Semi-Markov Dependent Risk Model

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Xiao Yun MO; Xiang Qun YANG

2014-01-01

A rigorous definition of semi-Markov dependent risk model is given. This model is a generalization of the Markov dependent risk model. A criterion and necessary conditions of semi-Markov dependent risk model are obtained. The results clarify relations between elements among semi-Markov dependent risk model more clear and are applicable for Markov dependent risk model.

Prevalence, Outcome, and Women's Experiences of External Cephalic Version in a Low-Risk Population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijnders, Marlies; Offerhaus, Pien; van Dommelen, Paula; Wiegers, Therese; Buitendijk, Simone

2010-01-01

Background: Until recently, external cephalic version to prevent breech presentation at birth was not widely accepted. The objective of our study was to assess the prevalence, outcomes, and women's experiences of external cephalic version to improve the implementation of the procedure in the

Prevalence, outcome, and women's experiences of external cephalic version in a low-risk population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijnders, M.; Offerhaus, P.; Dommelen, P. van; Wiegers, T.; Buitendijk, S.

2010-01-01

Background: Until recently, external cephalic version to prevent breech presentation at birth was not widely accepted. The objective of our study was to assess the prevalence, outcomes, and women's experiences of external cephalic version to improve the implementation of the procedure in the

Solid waste projection model: Database user's guide (Version 1.0)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carr, F.; Stiles, D.

1991-01-01

The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) specifically to address Hanford solid waste management issues. This document is one of a set of documents supporting the SWPM system and providing instructions in the use and maintenance of SWPM components. This manual contains instructions for preparing to use Version 1 of the SWPM database, for entering and maintaining data, and for performing routine database functions. This document supports only those operations which are specific to SWPM database menus and functions, and does not provide instructions in the use of Paradox, the database management system in which the SWPM database is established. 3 figs., 1 tab

Solid Waste Projection Model: Database user's guide (Version 1.3)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blackburn, C.L.

1991-11-01

The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) specifically to address Hanford solid waste management issues. This document is one of a set of documents supporting the SWPM system and providing instructions in the use and maintenance of SWPM components. This manual contains instructions for preparing to use Version 1.3 of the SWPM database, for entering and maintaining data, and for performing routine database functions. This document supports only those operations which are specific to SWPM database menus and functions and does not provide instruction in the use of Paradox, the database management system in which the SWPM database is established

Description of the new version 4.0 of the tritium model UFOTRI including user guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raskob, W.

1993-08-01

In view of the future operation of fusion reactors the release of tritium may play a dominant role during normal operation as well as after accidents. Because of its physical and chemical properties which differ significantly from those of other radionuclides, the model UFOTRI for assessing the radiological consequences of accidental tritium releases has been developed. It describes the behaviour of tritium in the biosphere and calculates the radiological impact on individuals and the population due to the direct exposure and by the ingestion pathways. Processes such as the conversion of tritium gas into tritiated water (HTO) in the soil, re-emission after deposition and the conversion of HTO into organically bound tritium, are considered. The use of UFOTRI in its probabilistic mode shows the spectrum of the radiological impact together with the associated probability of occurrence. A first model version was established in 1991. As the ongoing work on investigating the main processes of the tritium behaviour in the environment shows up new results, the model has been improved in several points. The report describes the changes incorporated into the model since 1991. Additionally provides the up-dated user guide for handling the revised UFOTRI version which will be distributed to interested organizations. (orig.) [de

Optimization of an In silico Cardiac Cell Model for Proarrhythmia Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sara Dutta

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Drug-induced Torsade-de-Pointes (TdP has been responsible for the withdrawal of many drugs from the market and is therefore of major concern to global regulatory agencies and the pharmaceutical industry. The Comprehensive in vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CiPA was proposed to improve prediction of TdP risk, using in silico models and in vitro multi-channel pharmacology data as integral parts of this initiative. Previously, we reported that combining dynamic interactions between drugs and the rapid delayed rectifier potassium current (IKr with multi-channel pharmacology is important for TdP risk classification, and we modified the original O'Hara Rudy ventricular cell mathematical model to include a Markov model of IKr to represent dynamic drug-IKr interactions (IKr-dynamic ORd model. We also developed a novel metric that could separate drugs with different TdP liabilities at high concentrations based on total electronic charge carried by the major inward ionic currents during the action potential. In this study, we further optimized the IKr-dynamic ORd model by refining model parameters using published human cardiomyocyte experimental data under control and drug block conditions. Using this optimized model and manual patch clamp data, we developed an updated version of the metric that quantifies the net electronic charge carried by major inward and outward ionic currents during the steady state action potential, which could classify the level of drug-induced TdP risk across a wide range of concentrations and pacing rates. We also established a framework to quantitatively evaluate a system's robustness against the induction of early afterdepolarizations (EADs, and demonstrated that the new metric is correlated with the cell's robustness to the pro-EAD perturbation of IKr conductance reduction. In summary, in this work we present an optimized model that is more consistent with experimental data, an improved metric that can classify drugs at

Preliminary site description. Simpevarp area - version 1.1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winberg, Anders [ed.

2004-08-01

Site characterisation in the Oskarshamn area is currently conducted at two adjoining localities, the Simpevarp and Laxemar subareas. This report presents the interim version (model version Simpevarp 1.1 of S1.1 for short) of the preliminary Site Descriptive Model for the Simpevarp subarea. The basis for this interim version is quality-assured, geoscientific and ecological field data from the Simpevarp subarea (and in part from the Laxemar area) available in the SKB SICADA and GIS data bases as of July 1, 2003 as well as version 0 of the Site Descriptive Model. The new data collected during the initial site investigation phase up till the date of data freeze S1.1 constitute the basis for the update of version 0 to version S1.1. These data include results from surface investigations in the subarea with its regional environment and from drillings and investigations in boreholes. The surface-based data sets were, in a relative sense, extensive compared with data sets from boreholes, were the information largely was limited to information from one c. 1,000 m deep cored borehole (KSH01A), two existing cored boreholes and three c. 200 m deep percussion-drilled boreholes. Discipline-specific models are developed for the selected regional and local model volumes and these models are subsequently integrated into a unified site description. The current methodologies for developing discipline-specific models and their integration are documented in methodology/ strategy reports. In the present work, the procedures and guidelines given in those reports were followed to the extent possible given the data and information available at the time of data freeze for model version S1.1. Compared with version 0 there are considerable additional features in the version S1.1, especially in the geological description and in the description of the near surface. The geological models of lithology and deformation zones are based on borehole information and surface data of much higher

Result Summary for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site Performance Assessment Model Version 4.110

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

Results for Version 4.110 of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) performance assessment (PA) model are summarized. Version 4.110 includes the fiscal year (FY) 2010 inventory estimate, including a future inventory estimate. Version 4.110 was implemented in GoldSim 10.11(SP4). The following changes have been implemented since the last baseline model, Version 4.105: (1) Updated the inventory and disposal unit configurations with data through the end of FY 2010. (1) Implemented Federal Guidance Report 13 Supplemental CD dose conversion factors (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1999). Version 4.110 PA results comply with air pathway and all-pathways annual total effective dose (TED) performance objectives (Tables 2 and 3, Figures 1 and 2). Air pathways results decrease moderately for all scenarios. The time of the maximum for the air pathway open rangeland scenario shifts from 1,000 to 100 years (y). All-pathways annual TED increases for all scenarios except the resident scenario. The maximum member of public all-pathways dose occurs at 1,000 y for the resident farmer scenario. The resident farmer dose was predominantly due to technetium-99 (Tc-99) (82 percent) and lead-210 (Pb-210) (13 percent). Pb-210 present at 1,000 y is produced predominantly by radioactive decay of uranium-234 (U-234) present at the time of disposal. All results for the postdrilling and intruder-agriculture scenarios comply with the performance objectives (Tables 4 and 5, Figures 3 and 4). The postdrilling intruder results are similar to Version 4.105 results. The intruder-agriculture results are similar to Version 4.105, except for the Pit 6 Radium Disposal Unit (RaDU). The intruder-agriculture result for the Shallow Land Burial (SLB) disposal units is a significant fraction of the performance objective and exceeds the performance objective at the 95th percentile. The intruder-agriculture dose is due predominantly to Tc-99 (75 percent) and U-238 (9.5 percent). The acute

Immersion freezing by natural dust based on a soccer ball model with the Community Atmospheric Model version 5: climate effects

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yong; Liu, Xiaohong

2014-12-01

We introduce a simplified version of the soccer ball model (SBM) developed by Niedermeier et al (2014 Geophys. Res. Lett. 41 736-741) into the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). It is the first time that SBM is used in an atmospheric model to parameterize the heterogeneous ice nucleation. The SBM, which was simplified for its suitable application in atmospheric models, uses the classical nucleation theory to describe the immersion/condensation freezing by dust in the mixed-phase cloud regime. Uncertain parameters (mean contact angle, standard deviation of contact angle probability distribution, and number of surface sites) in the SBM are constrained by fitting them to recent natural dust (Saharan dust) datasets. With the SBM in CAM5, we investigate the sensitivity of modeled cloud properties to the SBM parameters, and find significant seasonal and regional differences in the sensitivity among the three SBM parameters. Changes of mean contact angle and the number of surface sites lead to changes of cloud properties in Arctic in spring, which could be attributed to the transport of dust ice nuclei to this region. In winter, significant changes of cloud properties induced by these two parameters mainly occur in northern hemispheric mid-latitudes (e.g., East Asia). In comparison, no obvious changes of cloud properties caused by changes of standard deviation can be found in all the seasons. These results are valuable for understanding the heterogeneous ice nucleation behavior, and useful for guiding the future model developments.

Immersion freezing by natural dust based on a soccer ball model with the Community Atmospheric Model version 5: climate effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Yong; Liu, Xiaohong

2014-01-01

We introduce a simplified version of the soccer ball model (SBM) developed by Niedermeier et al (2014 Geophys. Res. Lett. 41 736–741) into the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). It is the first time that SBM is used in an atmospheric model to parameterize the heterogeneous ice nucleation. The SBM, which was simplified for its suitable application in atmospheric models, uses the classical nucleation theory to describe the immersion/condensation freezing by dust in the mixed-phase cloud regime. Uncertain parameters (mean contact angle, standard deviation of contact angle probability distribution, and number of surface sites) in the SBM are constrained by fitting them to recent natural dust (Saharan dust) datasets. With the SBM in CAM5, we investigate the sensitivity of modeled cloud properties to the SBM parameters, and find significant seasonal and regional differences in the sensitivity among the three SBM parameters. Changes of mean contact angle and the number of surface sites lead to changes of cloud properties in Arctic in spring, which could be attributed to the transport of dust ice nuclei to this region. In winter, significant changes of cloud properties induced by these two parameters mainly occur in northern hemispheric mid-latitudes (e.g., East Asia). In comparison, no obvious changes of cloud properties caused by changes of standard deviation can be found in all the seasons. These results are valuable for understanding the heterogeneous ice nucleation behavior, and useful for guiding the future model developments. (letter)

A multi-sectoral version of the Post-Keynesian growth model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ricardo Azevedo Araujo

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract With this inquiry, we seek to develop a disaggregated version of the post-Keynesian approach to economic growth, by showing that indeed it can be treated as a particular case of the Pasinettian model of structural change and economic expansion. By relying upon vertical integration it becomes possible to carry out the analysis initiated by Kaldor (1956 and Robinson (1956, 1962, and followed by Dutt (1984, Rowthorn (1982 and later Bhaduri and Marglin (1990 in a multi-sectoral model in which demand and productivity increase at different paces in each sector. By adopting this approach it is possible to show that the structural economic dynamics is conditioned not only to patterns of evolving demand and diffusion of technological progress but also to the distributive features of the economy, which can give rise to different regimes of economic growth. Besides, we find it possible to determine the natural rate of profit that makes the mark-up rate to be constant over time.

Temperature and Humidity Profiles in the TqJoint Data Group of AIRS Version 6 Product for the Climate Model Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Feng; Fang, Fan; Hearty, Thomas J.; Theobald, Michael; Vollmer, Bruce; Lynnes, Christopher

2014-01-01

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission is entering its 13th year of global observations of the atmospheric state, including temperature and humidity profiles, outgoing long-wave radiation, cloud properties, and trace gases. Thus AIRS data have been widely used, among other things, for short-term climate research and observational component for model evaluation. One instance is the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which uses AIRS version 5 data in the climate model evaluation. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is the home of processing, archiving, and distribution services for data from the AIRS mission. The GES DISC, in collaboration with the AIRS Project, released data from the version 6 algorithm in early 2013. The new algorithm represents a significant improvement over previous versions in terms of greater stability, yield, and quality of products. The ongoing Earth System Grid for next generation climate model research project, a collaborative effort of GES DISC and NASA JPL, will bring temperature and humidity profiles from AIRS version 6. The AIRS version 6 product adds a new "TqJoint" data group, which contains data for a common set of observations across water vapor and temperature at all atmospheric levels and is suitable for climate process studies. How different may the monthly temperature and humidity profiles in "TqJoint" group be from the "Standard" group where temperature and water vapor are not always valid at the same time? This study aims to answer the question by comprehensively comparing the temperature and humidity profiles from the "TqJoint" group and the "Standard" group. The comparison includes mean differences at different levels globally and over land and ocean. We are also working on examining the sampling differences between the "TqJoint" and "Standard" group using MERRA data.

Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

2013-01-01

We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

OpenAIRE

K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

2015-01-01

This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

Portuguese version of the PTSD Checklist-Military Version (PCL-M)-I: Confirmatory Factor Analysis and reliability.

Science.gov (United States)

Carvalho, Teresa; Cunha, Marina; Pinto-Gouveia, José; Duarte, Joana

2015-03-30

The PTSD Checklist-Military Version (PCL-M) is a brief self-report instrument widely used to assess Post-traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) symptomatology in war Veterans, according to DSM-IV. This study sought out to explore the factor structure and reliability of the Portuguese version of the PCL-M. A sample of 660 Portuguese Colonial War Veterans completed the PCL-M. Several Confirmatory Factor Analyses were conducted to test different structures for PCL-M PTSD symptoms. Although the respecified first-order four-factor model based on King et al.'s model showed the best fit to the data, the respecified first and second-order models based on the DSM-IV symptom clusters also presented an acceptable fit. In addition, the PCL-M showed adequate reliability. The Portuguese version of the PCL-M is thus a valid and reliable measure to assess the severity of PTSD symptoms as described in DSM-IV. Its use with Portuguese Colonial War Veterans may ease screening of possible PTSD cases, promote more suitable treatment planning, and enable monitoring of therapeutic outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

UNSAT-H Version 3.0: Unsaturated Soil Water and Heat Flow Model Theory, User Manual, and Examples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fayer, M.J.

2000-01-01

The UNSAT-H model was developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to assess the water dynamics of arid sites and, in particular, estimate recharge fluxes for scenarios pertinent to waste disposal facilities. During the last 4 years, the UNSAT-H model received support from the Immobilized Waste Program (IWP) of the Hanford Site's River Protection Project. This program is designing and assessing the performance of on-site disposal facilities to receive radioactive wastes that are currently stored in single- and double-shell tanks at the Hanford Site (LMHC 1999). The IWP is interested in estimates of recharge rates for current conditions and long-term scenarios involving the vadose zone disposal of tank wastes. Simulation modeling with UNSAT-H is one of the methods being used to provide those estimates (e.g., Rockhold et al. 1995; Fayer et al. 1999). To achieve the above goals for assessing water dynamics and estimating recharge rates, the UNSAT-H model addresses soil water infiltration, redistribution, evaporation, plant transpiration, deep drainage, and soil heat flow as one-dimensional processes. The UNSAT-H model simulates liquid water flow using Richards' equation (Richards 1931), water vapor diffusion using Fick's law, and sensible heat flow using the Fourier equation. This report documents UNSAT-H .Version 3.0. The report includes the bases for the conceptual model and its numerical implementation, benchmark test cases, example simulations involving layered soils and plants, and the code manual. Version 3.0 is an, enhanced-capability update of UNSAT-H Version 2.0 (Fayer and Jones 1990). New features include hysteresis, an iterative solution of head and temperature, an energy balance check, the modified Picard solution technique, additional hydraulic functions, multiple-year simulation capability, and general enhancements

Landfill Gas Energy Cost Model Version 3.0 (LFGcost-Web V3 ...

Science.gov (United States)

To help stakeholders estimate the costs of a landfill gas (LFG) energy project, in 2002, LMOP developed a cost tool (LFGcost). Since then, LMOP has routinely updated the tool to reflect changes in the LFG energy industry. Initially the model was designed for EPA to assist landfills in evaluating the economic and financial feasibility of LFG energy project development. In 2014, LMOP developed a public version of the model, LFGcost-Web (Version 3.0), to allow landfill and industry stakeholders to evaluate project feasibility on their own. LFGcost-Web can analyze costs for 12 energy recovery project types. These project costs can be estimated with or without the costs of a gas collection and control system (GCCS). The EPA used select equations from LFGcost-Web to estimate costs of the regulatory options in the 2015 proposed revisions to the MSW Landfills Standards of Performance (also known as New Source Performance Standards) and the Emission Guidelines (herein thereafter referred to collectively as the Landfill Rules). More specifically, equations derived from LFGcost-Web were applied to each landfill expected to be impacted by the Landfill Rules to estimate annualized installed capital costs and annual O&M costs of a gas collection and control system. In addition, after applying the LFGcost-Web equations to the list of landfills expected to require a GCCS in year 2025 as a result of the proposed Landfill Rules, the regulatory analysis evaluated whether electr

Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

2005-01-01

Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

Validation of the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale in Chinese college students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoxiao Hu

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Using college student samples, two studies were conducted to validate the Chinese version of the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT Scale. The results replicated important findings reported by Weber et al. (2002 in the Chinese culture. Risk-taking and risk perception were domain-specific, whereas perceived-risk attitudes were relatively stable across domains, supporting the risk-return model of risk taking. Results of both exploratory factor analysis (EFA and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA showed that the ethical, recreational, health/safety, and gambling domains were preserved in the Chinese version of DOSPERT and that the items from social and investment domains formed one factor. This result may be explained by Weber and Hsee's (1998 cushion hypothesis. Other possible reasons for this cross-cultural difference in the factor structure were also discussed.

Dynamic Computation of Change Operations in Version Management of Business Process Models

Science.gov (United States)

Küster, Jochen Malte; Gerth, Christian; Engels, Gregor

Version management of business process models requires that changes can be resolved by applying change operations. In order to give a user maximal freedom concerning the application order of change operations, position parameters of change operations must be computed dynamically during change resolution. In such an approach, change operations with computed position parameters must be applicable on the model and dependencies and conflicts of change operations must be taken into account because otherwise invalid models can be constructed. In this paper, we study the concept of partially specified change operations where parameters are computed dynamically. We provide a formalization for partially specified change operations using graph transformation and provide a concept for their applicability. Based on this, we study potential dependencies and conflicts of change operations and show how these can be taken into account within change resolution. Using our approach, a user can resolve changes of business process models without being unnecessarily restricted to a certain order.

GARUSO - Version 1.0. Uncertainty model for multipath ultrasonic transit time gas flow meters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lunde, Per; Froeysa, Kjell-Eivind; Vestrheim, Magne

1997-09-01

This report describes an uncertainty model for ultrasonic transit time gas flow meters configured with parallel chords, and a PC program, GARUSO Version 1.0, implemented for calculation of the meter`s relative expanded uncertainty. The program, which is based on the theoretical uncertainty model, is used to carry out a simplified and limited uncertainty analysis for a 12`` 4-path meter, where examples of input and output uncertainties are given. The model predicts a relative expanded uncertainty for the meter at a level which further justifies today`s increasing tendency to use this type of instruments for fiscal metering of natural gas. 52 refs., 15 figs., 11 tabs.

Hydrogeochemical evaluation of the Simpevarp area, model version 1.1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laaksoharju, Marcus (ed.) [Geopoint AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Smellie, John [Conterra AB, Uppsala (Sweden); Gimeno, Maria; Auque, Luis; Gomez, Javier [Univ. of Zaragoza (Spain). Dept. of Earth Sciences; Tullborg, Eva-Lena [Terralogica AB, Graabo (Sweden); Gurban, Ioana [3D-Terra (Sweden)

2004-02-01

Siting studies for SKB's programme of deep geological disposal of nuclear fuel waste currently involves the investigation of two locations, Simpevarp and Forsmark, on the eastern coast of Sweden to determine their geological, hydrogeochemical and hydrogeological characteristics. Present work completed has resulted in model version 1.1 which represents the first evaluation of the available Simpevarp groundwater analytical data collected up to July 1st, 2003 (i.e. the first 'data freeze' of the site). The HAG (Hydrochemical Analytical Group) group had access to a total of 535 water samples collected from the surface and sub-surface environment (e.g. soil pipes in the overburden, streams and lakes); only a few samples were collected from drilled boreholes. The deepest fracture groundwater samples with sufficient analytical data reflected depths down to 250 m. Furthermore, most of the waters sampled (79%) lacked crucial analytical information that restricted the evaluation. Consequently, model version 1.1 focussed on the processes taking place in the uppermost part of the bedrock rather than at repository levels. The complex groundwater evolution and patterns at Simpevarp are a result of many factors such as: a) the flat topography and proximity to the Baltic Sea, b) changes in hydrogeology related to glaciation/deglaciation and land uplift, c) repeated marine/lake water regressions/transgressions, and d) organic or inorganic alteration of the groundwater composition caused by microbial processes or water/rock interactions. The sampled groundwaters reflect to various degrees of modern or ancient water/rock interactions and mixing processes. Higher topography to the west of Simpevarp has resulted in hydraulic gradients which have partially flushed out old water types. Except for sea waters, most surface waters and some groundwaters from percussion boreholes are fresh, non-saline waters according to the classification used for Aespoe groundwaters. The rest

Risk modelling in portfolio optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, W. H.; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi

2013-09-01

Risk management is very important in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model has been used in portfolio optimization to minimize the investment risk. The objective of the mean-variance model is to minimize the portfolio risk and achieve the target rate of return. Variance is used as risk measure in the mean-variance model. The purpose of this study is to compare the portfolio composition as well as performance between the optimal portfolio of mean-variance model and equally weighted portfolio. Equally weighted portfolio means the proportions that are invested in each asset are equal. The results show that the portfolio composition of the mean-variance optimal portfolio and equally weighted portfolio are different. Besides that, the mean-variance optimal portfolio gives better performance because it gives higher performance ratio than the equally weighted portfolio.

78 FR 32224 - Availability of Version 3.1.2 of the Connect America Fund Phase II Cost Model; Additional...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-29

... Version 3.1.2 of the Connect America Fund Phase II Cost Model; Additional Discussion Topics in Connect America Cost Model Virtual Workshop AGENCY: Federal Communications Commission. ACTION: Proposed rule... America Cost Model (CAM v3.1.2), which allows Commission staff and interested parties to calculate costs...

Preliminary site description. Simpevarp area - version 1.1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winberg, Anders

2004-08-01

Site characterisation in the Oskarshamn area is currently conducted at two adjoining localities, the Simpevarp and Laxemar subareas. This report presents the interim version (model version Simpevarp 1.1 of S1.1 for short) of the preliminary Site Descriptive Model for the Simpevarp subarea. The basis for this interim version is quality-assured, geoscientific and ecological field data from the Simpevarp subarea (and in part from the Laxemar area) available in the SKB SICADA and GIS data bases as of July 1, 2003 as well as version 0 of the Site Descriptive Model. The new data collected during the initial site investigation phase up till the date of data freeze S1.1 constitute the basis for the update of version 0 to version S1.1. These data include results from surface investigations in the subarea with its regional environment and from drillings and investigations in boreholes. The surface-based data sets were, in a relative sense, extensive compared with data sets from boreholes, were the information largely was limited to information from one c. 1,000 m deep cored borehole (KSH01A), two existing cored boreholes and three c. 200 m deep percussion-drilled boreholes. Discipline-specific models are developed for the selected regional and local model volumes and these models are subsequently integrated into a unified site description. The current methodologies for developing discipline-specific models and their integration are documented in methodology/ strategy reports. In the present work, the procedures and guidelines given in those reports were followed to the extent possible given the data and information available at the time of data freeze for model version S1.1. Compared with version 0 there are considerable additional features in the version S1.1, especially in the geological description and in the description of the near surface. The geological models of lithology and deformation zones are based on borehole information and surface data of much higher

The modified version of the centre-of-mass correction to the bag model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartelski, J.; Tatur, S.

1986-01-01

We propose the improvement of the recently considered version of the centre-of-mass correction to the bag model. We identify a nucleon bag with physical nucleon confined in an external fictitious spherical well potential with an additional external fictitious pressure characterized by the parameter b. The introduction of such a pressure restores the conservation of the canonical energy-momentum tensor, which was lost in the former model. We propose several methods to determine the numerical value of b. We calculate the Roper resonance mass as well as static electroweak parameters of a nucleon with centre-of-mass corrections taken into account. 7 refs., 1 tab. (author)

Accounting for observation uncertainties in an evaluation metric of low latitude turbulent air-sea fluxes: application to the comparison of a suite of IPSL model versions

Science.gov (United States)

Servonnat, Jérôme; Găinuşă-Bogdan, Alina; Braconnot, Pascale

2017-09-01

Turbulent momentum and heat (sensible heat and latent heat) fluxes at the air-sea interface are key components of the whole energetic of the Earth's climate. The evaluation of these fluxes in the climate models is still difficult because of the large uncertainties associated with the reference products. In this paper we present an objective metric accounting for reference uncertainties to evaluate the annual cycle of the low latitude turbulent fluxes of a suite of IPSL climate models. This metric consists in a Hotelling T 2 test between the simulated and observed field in a reduce space characterized by the dominant modes of variability that are common to both the model and the reference, taking into account the observational uncertainty. The test is thus more severe when uncertainties are small as it is the case for sea surface temperature (SST). The results of the test show that for almost all variables and all model versions the model-reference differences are not zero. It is not possible to distinguish between model versions for sensible heat and meridional wind stress, certainly due to the large observational uncertainties. All model versions share similar biases for the different variables. There is no improvement between the reference versions of the IPSL model used for CMIP3 and CMIP5. The test also reveals that the higher horizontal resolution fails to improve the representation of the turbulent surface fluxes compared to the other versions. The representation of the fluxes is further degraded in a version with improved atmospheric physics with an amplification of some of the biases in the Indian Ocean and in the intertropical convergence zone. The ranking of the model versions for the turbulent fluxes is not correlated with the ranking found for SST. This highlights that despite the fact that SST gradients are important for the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, other factors such as wind speed, and air-sea temperature contrast play an

Modeling the structure of the attitudes and belief scale 2 using CFA and bifactor approaches: Toward the development of an abbreviated version.

Science.gov (United States)

Hyland, Philip; Shevlin, Mark; Adamson, Gary; Boduszek, Daniel

2014-01-01

The Attitudes and Belief Scale-2 (ABS-2: DiGiuseppe, Leaf, Exner, & Robin, 1988. The development of a measure of rational/irrational thinking. Paper presented at the World Congress of Behavior Therapy, Edinburg, Scotland.) is a 72-item self-report measure of evaluative rational and irrational beliefs widely used in Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy research contexts. However, little psychometric evidence exists regarding the measure's underlying factor structure. Furthermore, given the length of the ABS-2 there is a need for an abbreviated version that can be administered when there are time demands on the researcher, such as in clinical settings. This study sought to examine a series of theoretical models hypothesized to represent the latent structure of the ABS-2 within an alternative models framework using traditional confirmatory factor analysis as well as utilizing a bifactor modeling approach. Furthermore, this study also sought to develop a psychometrically sound abbreviated version of the ABS-2. Three hundred and thirteen (N = 313) active emergency service personnel completed the ABS-2. Results indicated that for each model, the application of bifactor modeling procedures improved model fit statistics, and a novel eight-factor intercorrelated solution was identified as the best fitting model of the ABS-2. However, the observed fit indices failed to satisfy commonly accepted standards. A 24-item abbreviated version was thus constructed and an intercorrelated eight-factor solution yielded satisfactory model fit statistics. Current results support the use of a bifactor modeling approach to determining the factor structure of the ABS-2. Furthermore, results provide empirical support for the psychometric properties of the newly developed abbreviated version.

International Asset Pricing, Currency Risk and Integration of Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sema BAYRAKTAR

2014-11-01

Full Text Available This study attempts to test the conditional version of the international asset-pricing model proposed in Bayraktar (2000, 2009 by using a parsimonious multivariate GARCH process. The theoretical model, contrary to previous empirical studies that have used random selection of currency risks, determines which currencies should be included in an empirical test, thus avoids this kind of random selection bias. The results from both full and sub-samples regressions provide some weak evidence for the existence of exchange rate risks, thus partially support the theory. However, exchange rate risks' premia are found considerably smaller than that of market risk.

Conceptualizing a Dynamic Fall Risk Model Including Intrinsic Risks and Exposures.

Science.gov (United States)

Klenk, Jochen; Becker, Clemens; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Schwickert, Lars; Rapp, Kilan; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Todd, Chris; Lord, Stephen R; Kerse, Ngaire

2017-11-01

Falls are a major cause of injury and disability in older people, leading to serious health and social consequences including fractures, poor quality of life, loss of independence, and institutionalization. To design and provide adequate prevention measures, accurate understanding and identification of person's individual fall risk is important. However, to date, the performance of fall risk models is weak compared with models estimating, for example, cardiovascular risk. This deficiency may result from 2 factors. First, current models consider risk factors to be stable for each person and not change over time, an assumption that does not reflect real-life experience. Second, current models do not consider the interplay of individual exposure including type of activity (eg, walking, undertaking transfers) and environmental risks (eg, lighting, floor conditions) in which activity is performed. Therefore, we posit a dynamic fall risk model consisting of intrinsic risk factors that vary over time and exposure (activity in context). eHealth sensor technology (eg, smartphones) begins to enable the continuous measurement of both the above factors. We illustrate our model with examples of real-world falls from the FARSEEING database. This dynamic framework for fall risk adds important aspects that may improve understanding of fall mechanisms, fall risk models, and the development of fall prevention interventions. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CLIPS 6.0 - C LANGUAGE INTEGRATED PRODUCTION SYSTEM, VERSION 6.0 (UNIX VERSION)

Science.gov (United States)

Donnell, B.

1994-01-01

CLIPS, the C Language Integrated Production System, is a complete environment for developing expert systems -- programs which are specifically intended to model human expertise or knowledge. It is designed to allow artificial intelligence research, development, and delivery on conventional computers. CLIPS 6.0 provides a cohesive tool for handling a wide variety of knowledge with support for three different programming paradigms: rule-based, object-oriented, and procedural. Rule-based programming allows knowledge to be represented as heuristics, or "rules-of-thumb" which specify a set of actions to be performed for a given situation. Object-oriented programming allows complex systems to be modeled as modular components (which can be easily reused to model other systems or create new components). The procedural programming capabilities provided by CLIPS 6.0 allow CLIPS to represent knowledge in ways similar to those allowed in languages such as C, Pascal, Ada, and LISP. Using CLIPS 6.0, one can develop expert system software using only rule-based programming, only object-oriented programming, only procedural programming, or combinations of the three. CLIPS provides extensive features to support the rule-based programming paradigm including seven conflict resolution strategies, dynamic rule priorities, and truth maintenance. CLIPS 6.0 supports more complex nesting of conditional elements in the if portion of a rule ("and", "or", and "not" conditional elements can be placed within a "not" conditional element). In addition, there is no longer a limitation on the number of multifield slots that a deftemplate can contain. The CLIPS Object-Oriented Language (COOL) provides object-oriented programming capabilities. Features supported by COOL include classes with multiple inheritance, abstraction, encapsulation, polymorphism, dynamic binding, and message passing with message-handlers. CLIPS 6.0 supports tight integration of the rule-based programming features of CLIPS with

CLIPS 6.0 - C LANGUAGE INTEGRATED PRODUCTION SYSTEM, VERSION 6.0 (MACINTOSH VERSION)

Science.gov (United States)

Riley, G.

1994-01-01

CLIPS, the C Language Integrated Production System, is a complete environment for developing expert systems -- programs which are specifically intended to model human expertise or knowledge. It is designed to allow artificial intelligence research, development, and delivery on conventional computers. CLIPS 6.0 provides a cohesive tool for handling a wide variety of knowledge with support for three different programming paradigms: rule-based, object-oriented, and procedural. Rule-based programming allows knowledge to be represented as heuristics, or "rules-of-thumb" which specify a set of actions to be performed for a given situation. Object-oriented programming allows complex systems to be modeled as modular components (which can be easily reused to model other systems or create new components). The procedural programming capabilities provided by CLIPS 6.0 allow CLIPS to represent knowledge in ways similar to those allowed in languages such as C, Pascal, Ada, and LISP. Using CLIPS 6.0, one can develop expert system software using only rule-based programming, only object-oriented programming, only procedural programming, or combinations of the three. CLIPS provides extensive features to support the rule-based programming paradigm including seven conflict resolution strategies, dynamic rule priorities, and truth maintenance. CLIPS 6.0 supports more complex nesting of conditional elements in the if portion of a rule ("and", "or", and "not" conditional elements can be placed within a "not" conditional element). In addition, there is no longer a limitation on the number of multifield slots that a deftemplate can contain. The CLIPS Object-Oriented Language (COOL) provides object-oriented programming capabilities. Features supported by COOL include classes with multiple inheritance, abstraction, encapsulation, polymorphism, dynamic binding, and message passing with message-handlers. CLIPS 6.0 supports tight integration of the rule-based programming features of CLIPS with

Taking Stock and Taking Steps: The Case for an Adolescent Version of the Short-Assessment of Risk and Treatability.

Science.gov (United States)

Viljoen, Jodi L; Cruise, Keith R; Nicholls, Tonia L; Desmarais, Sarah L; Webster, Christopher

2012-01-01

The field of violence risk assessment has matured considerably, possibly advancing beyond its own adolescence. At this point in the field's evolution, it is more important than ever for the development of any new device to be accompanied by a strong rationale and the capacity to provide a unique contribution. With this issue in mind, we first take stock of the field of adolescent risk assessment in order to describe the rapid progress that this field has made, as well as the gaps that led us to adapt the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START; Webster, Martin, Brink, Nicholls, & Desmarais, 2009) for use with adolescents. We view the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV; Nicholls, Viljoen, Cruise, Desmarais, & Webster, 2010; Viljoen, Cruise, Nicholls, Desmarais, & Webster, in progress) as complementing other risk measures in four primary ways: 1) rather than focusing solely on violence risk, it examines broader adverse outcomes to which some adolescents are vulnerable (including self-harm, suicide, victimization, substance abuse, unauthorized leave, self-neglect, general offending); 2) it places a balanced emphasis on adolescents' strengths; 3) it focuses on dynamic factors that are relevant to short-term assessment, risk management, and treatment planning; and 4) it is designed for both mental health and justice populations. We describe the developmentally-informed approach we took in the adaptation of the START for adolescents, and outline future steps for the continuing validation and refinement of the START:AV.

Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

2010-06-01

In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

User's guide to the MESOI diffusion model: Version 1. 1 (for Data General Eclipse S/230 with AFOS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Athey, G.F.; Ramsdell, J.V.

1982-09-01

MESOI is an interactive, Langrangian puff trajectory model. The model theory is documented separately (Ramsdell and Athey, 1981). Version 1.1 is a modified form of the original 1.0. It is designed to run on a Data General Eclipse computer. The model has improved support features which make it useful as an emergency response tool. This report is intended to provide the user with the information necessary to successfully conduct model simulations using MESOI Version 1.1 and to use the support programs STAPREP and EXPLT. The user is also provided information on the use of the data file maintenance and review program UPDATE. Examples are given for the operation of the program. Test data sets are described which allow the user to practice with the programs and to confirm proper implementation and execution.

Nuclear Criticality Safety Handbook, Version 2. English translation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-08-01

The Nuclear Criticality Safety Handbook, Version 2 essentially includes the description of the Supplement Report to the Nuclear Criticality Safety Handbook, released in 1995, into the first version of the Nuclear Criticality Safety Handbook, published in 1988. The following two points are new: (1) exemplifying safety margins related to modeled dissolution and extraction processes, (2) describing evaluation methods and alarm system for criticality accidents. Revision has been made based on previous studies for the chapter that treats modeling the fuel system: e.g., the fuel grain size that the system can be regarded as homogeneous, non-uniformity effect of fuel solution, an burnup credit. This revision has solved the inconsistencies found in the first version between the evaluation of errors found in JACS code system and the criticality condition data that were calculated based on the evaluation. This report is an English translation of the Nuclear Criticality Safety Handbook, Version 2, originally published in Japanese as JAERI 1340 in 1999. (author)

Prevalence, outcome, and women’s experiences of external cephalic version in a low-risk population.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijnders, M.; Offerhaus, P.; Dommelen, P. van; Wiegers, T.; Buitendijk, S.

2010-01-01

BACKGROUND: Until recently, external cephalic version to prevent breech presentation at birth was not widely accepted. The objective of our study was to assess the prevalence, outcomes, and women's experiences of external cephalic version to improve the implementation of the procedure in the

Expanding pedestrian injury risk to the body region level: how to model passive safety systems in pedestrian injury risk functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko; Achmus, Stefanie

2015-01-01

Assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) plays a crucial role in accident research. A common way to evaluate the effectiveness of new systems is to determine the potentials for injury severity reduction. Because injury risk functions describe the probability of an injury of a given severity conditional on a technical accident severity (closing speed, delta V, barrier equivalent speed, etc.), they are predestined for such evaluations. Recent work has stated an approach on how to model the pedestrian injury risk in pedestrian-to-passenger car accidents as a family of functions. This approach gave explicit and easily interpretable formulae for the injury risk conditional on the closing speed of the car. These results are extended to injury risk functions for pedestrian body regions. Starting with a double-checked German In-depth Accident Study (GIDAS) pedestrian-to-car accident data set (N = 444) and a functional-anatomical definition of the body regions, investigations on the influence of specific body regions on the overall injury severity will be presented. As the measure of injury severity, the ISSx, a rescaled version of the well-known Injury Severity Score (ISS), was used. Though traditional ISS is computed by summation of the squares of the 3 most severe injured body regions, ISSx is computed by the summation of the exponentials of the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) severities of the 3 most severely injured body regions. The exponentials used are scaled to fit the ISS range of values between 0 and 75. Three body regions (head/face/neck, thorax, hip/legs) clearly dominated abdominal and upper extremity injuries; that is, the latter 2 body regions had no influence at all on the overall injury risk over the range of technical accident severities. Thus, the ISSx is well described by use of the injury codes from the same body regions for any pedestrian injury severity. As a mathematical consequence, the ISSx becomes explicitly

Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances (USES), version 4.0

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Linders JBHJ; Rikken MGJ; Bakker J; Poel P van der; CSR

2002-01-01

This report describes the fouth version of the Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances, USES 4.0. USES 4.0 is an integrated risk assessment system for new and existing substances and agricultural and non-agricultural pesticides. The risk assessment system for new and existing substances in

Modeling CANDU type fuel behaviour during extended burnup irradiations using a revised version of the ELESIM code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arimescu, V.I.; Richmond, W.R.

1992-05-01

The high-burnup database for CANDU fuel, with a variety of cases, offers a good opportunity to check models of fuel behaviour, and to identify areas for improvement. Good agreement of calculated values of fission-gas release, and sheath hoop strain, with experimental data indicates that the global behaviour of the fuel element is adequately simulated by a computer code. Using, the ELESIM computer code, the fission-gas release, swelling, and fuel pellet expansion models were analysed, and changes made for gaseous swelling, and diffusional release of fission-gas atoms to the grain boundaries. Using this revised version of ELESIM, satisfactory agreement between measured values of fission-gas release was found for most of the high-burnup database cases. It is concluded that the revised version of the ELESIM code is able to simulate with reasonable accuracy high-burnup as well as low-burnup CANDU fuel

Development of IMPACTS-BRC, Version 2.1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rao, R.R.; Kozak, M.W.; Rollstin, J.A.

1991-01-01

IMPACTS-BRC is a computer program developed to conduct scoping analyses for use in supporting rulemaking on petitions for exemption of waste streams from multiple producers. It was not initially intended for use on individual license applications for specific sites. However, the Federal Register, Volume 51, Number 168, specifies that IMPACTS-BRC be used to evaluate incoming license applications. This creates a problem since IMPACTS-BRC is not being used for its intended purpose. It is a generic code that is now being used for site specific applications. This is only a valid procedure if it can be shown that generic results from IMPACTS-BRC are conservative when compared to results from site specific models. Otherwise, IMPACTS-BRC should not be used. The purpose of this work was to verify that IMPACTS-BRC works as specified in its user's guide. In other words, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has determined that the mathematical models given in the user's guide are correctly implemented into the computer code. No direct work has been done to verify that the mathematical models used in the code are appropriate for the purpose that they are being used. In fact, scrutiny of the groundwater transport models in IMPACTS-BRC has led us to recommend that alternate geosphere models should be used. Other work carried out for this project included verifying that the input data for IMPACTS-BRC is correct and traceable. This was carried out, and a new version of the data with these qualities was produced. The new version of the data was used with the verified IMPACTS-BRC, Version 2.0 to produce IMPACTS-BRC, Version 2.1

HECTR [Hydrogen Event Containment Transient Response] Version 1.5N: A modification of HECTR Version 1.5 for application to N Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camp, A.L.; Dingman, S.E.

1987-05-01

This report describes HECTR Version 1.5N, which is a special version of HECTR developed specifically for application to the N Reactor. HECTR is a fast-running, lumped-parameter containment analysis computer program that is most useful for performing parametric studies. The main purpose of HECTR is to analyze nuclear reactor accidents involving the transport and combustion of hydrogen, but HECTR can also function as an experiment analysis tool and can solve a limited set of other types of containment problems. Version 1.5N is a modification of Version 1.5 and includes changes to the spray actuation logic, and models for steam vents, vacuum breakers, and building cross-vents. Thus, all of the key features of the N Reactor confinement can be modeled. HECTR is designed for flexibility and provides for user control of many important parameters, if built-in correlations and default values are not desired

Models of Credit Risk Measurement

OpenAIRE

Hagiu Alina

2011-01-01

Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

Models for assessing and managing credit risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neogradi Slađana

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

Nifedipine as a uterine relaxant for external cephalic version: a randomized controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Kok, Marjolein; Bais, Joke M; van Lith, Jan M; Papatsonis, Dimitri M; Kleiverda, Gunilla; Hanny, Dahrs; Doornbos, Johannes P; Mol, Ben W; van der Post, Joris A

2008-08-01

To estimate the effectiveness of nifedipine as a uterine relaxant during external cephalic version to correct breech presentation. In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, women with a singleton fetus in breech presentation and a gestational age of 36 weeks or more were eligible for enrollment. Participating women received two doses of either nifedipine 10 mg or placebo, 30 and 15 minutes before the external cephalic version attempt. The primary outcome was a cephalic-presenting fetus immediately after the procedure. Secondary outcome measures were cephalic presentation at delivery, mode of delivery, and adverse events. A sample size of 292 was calculated to provide 80% power to detect a 17% improvement of the external cephalic version success rate, assuming a placebo group rate of 40% and alpha of .05. Outcome data for 310 of 320 randomly assigned participants revealed no significant difference in external cephalic version success rates between treatment (42%) and control group (37%) (relative risk 1.1, 95%; 95% confidence interval 0.85-1.5). The cesarean delivery rate was 51% in the treatment group and 46% in the control group (relative risk 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.4). Nifedipine did not significantly improve the success of external cephalic version. Future use of nifedipine to improve the outcome of external cephalic version should be limited to large clinical trials.

In-vessel source term analysis code TRACER version 2.3. User's manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toyohara, Daisuke; Ohno, Shuji; Hamada, Hirotsugu; Miyahara, Shinya

2005-01-01

A computer code TRACER (Transport Phenomena of Radionuclides for Accident Consequence Evaluation of Reactor) version 2.3 has been developed to evaluate species and quantities of fission products (FPs) released into cover gas during a fuel pin failure accident in an LMFBR. The TRACER version 2.3 includes new or modified models shown below. a) Both model: a new model for FPs release from fuel. b) Modified model for FPs transfer from fuel to bubbles or sodium coolant. c) Modified model for bubbles dynamics in coolant. Computational models, input data and output data of the TRACER version 2.3 are described in this user's manual. (author)

Multilevel joint competing risk models

Science.gov (United States)

Karunarathna, G. H. S.; Sooriyarachchi, M. R.

2017-09-01

Joint modeling approaches are often encountered for different outcomes of competing risk time to event and count in many biomedical and epidemiology studies in the presence of cluster effect. Hospital length of stay (LOS) has been the widely used outcome measure in hospital utilization due to the benchmark measurement for measuring multiple terminations such as discharge, transferred, dead and patients who have not completed the event of interest at the follow up period (censored) during hospitalizations. Competing risk models provide a method of addressing such multiple destinations since classical time to event models yield biased results when there are multiple events. In this study, the concept of joint modeling has been applied to the dengue epidemiology in Sri Lanka, 2006-2008 to assess the relationship between different outcomes of LOS and platelet count of dengue patients with the district cluster effect. Two key approaches have been applied to build up the joint scenario. In the first approach, modeling each competing risk separately using the binary logistic model, treating all other events as censored under the multilevel discrete time to event model, while the platelet counts are assumed to follow a lognormal regression model. The second approach is based on the endogeneity effect in the multilevel competing risks and count model. Model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood based on the Laplace approximation. Moreover, the study reveals that joint modeling approach yield more precise results compared to fitting two separate univariate models, in terms of AIC (Akaike Information Criterion).

Overview of the Meso-NH model version 5.4 and its applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Lac

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4. Meso-NH is an atmospheric non hydrostatic research model that is applied to a broad range of resolutions, from synoptic to turbulent scales, and is designed for studies of physics and chemistry. It is a limited-area model employing advanced numerical techniques, including monotonic advection schemes for scalar transport and fourth-order centered or odd-order WENO advection schemes for momentum. The model includes state-of-the-art physics parameterization schemes that are important to represent convective-scale phenomena and turbulent eddies, as well as flows at larger scales. In addition, Meso-NH has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling. Here, we present the main innovations to the dynamics and physics of the code since the pioneer paper of Lafore et al. (1998 and provide an overview of recent applications and couplings.

CLIPS 6.0 - C LANGUAGE INTEGRATED PRODUCTION SYSTEM, VERSION 6.0 (IBM PC VERSION)

Science.gov (United States)

Donnell, B.

1994-01-01

CLIPS, the C Language Integrated Production System, is a complete environment for developing expert systems -- programs which are specifically intended to model human expertise or knowledge. It is designed to allow artificial intelligence research, development, and delivery on conventional computers. CLIPS 6.0 provides a cohesive tool for handling a wide variety of knowledge with support for three different programming paradigms: rule-based, object-oriented, and procedural. Rule-based programming allows knowledge to be represented as heuristics, or "rules-of-thumb" which specify a set of actions to be performed for a given situation. Object-oriented programming allows complex systems to be modeled as modular components (which can be easily reused to model other systems or create new components). The procedural programming capabilities provided by CLIPS 6.0 allow CLIPS to represent knowledge in ways similar to those allowed in languages such as C, Pascal, Ada, and LISP. Using CLIPS 6.0, one can develop expert system software using only rule-based programming, only object-oriented programming, only procedural programming, or combinations of the three. CLIPS provides extensive features to support the rule-based programming paradigm including seven conflict resolution strategies, dynamic rule priorities, and truth maintenance. CLIPS 6.0 supports more complex nesting of conditional elements in the if portion of a rule ("and", "or", and "not" conditional elements can be placed within a "not" conditional element). In addition, there is no longer a limitation on the number of multifield slots that a deftemplate can contain. The CLIPS Object-Oriented Language (COOL) provides object-oriented programming capabilities. Features supported by COOL include classes with multiple inheritance, abstraction, encapsulation, polymorphism, dynamic binding, and message passing with message-handlers. CLIPS 6.0 supports tight integration of the rule-based programming features of CLIPS with

LERC-SLAM - THE NASA LEWIS RESEARCH CENTER SATELLITE LINK ATTENUATION MODEL PROGRAM (MACINTOSH VERSION)

Science.gov (United States)

Manning, R. M.

1994-01-01

The frequency and intensity of rain attenuation affecting the communication between a satellite and an earth terminal is an important consideration in planning satellite links. The NASA Lewis Research Center Satellite Link Attenuation Model Program (LeRC-SLAM) provides a static and dynamic statistical assessment of the impact of rain attenuation on a communications link established between an earth terminal and a geosynchronous satellite. The program is designed for use in the specification, design and assessment of satellite links for any terminal location in the continental United States. The basis for LeRC-SLAM is the ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model, which uses a log-normal cumulative probability distribution to describe the random process of rain attenuation on satellite links. The derivation of the statistics for the rainrate process at the specified terminal location relies on long term rainfall records compiled by the U.S. Weather Service during time periods of up to 55 years in length. The theory of extreme value statistics is also utilized. The user provides 1) the longitudinal position of the satellite in geosynchronous orbit, 2) the geographical position of the earth terminal in terms of latitude and longitude, 3) the height above sea level of the terminal site, 4) the yearly average rainfall at the terminal site, and 5) the operating frequency of the communications link (within 1 to 1000 GHz, inclusive). Based on the yearly average rainfall at the terminal location, LeRC-SLAM calculates the relevant rain statistics for the site using an internal data base. The program then generates rain attenuation data for the satellite link. This data includes a description of the static (i.e., yearly) attenuation process, an evaluation of the cumulative probability distribution for attenuation effects, and an evaluation of the probability of fades below selected fade depths. In addition, LeRC-SLAM calculates the elevation and azimuth angles of the terminal

RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (extended version)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.

2010-01-01

Today, companies are required to be in control of the security of their IT assets. This is especially challenging in the presence of limited budgets and conflicting requirements. Here, we present Risk-Based Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (RiskREP), a method for managing IT security

MR evaluation of femoral neck version and tibial torsion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koenig, James Karl; Dwek, Jerry R. [University of California, San Diego, Children' s Hospital and Health Center, Department of Radiology, San Diego, CA (United States); Pring, Maya E. [Rady Children' s Hospital, Department of Pediatric Orthopedic Surgery, San Diego, CA (United States)

2012-01-15

Abnormalities of femoral neck version have been associated with a number of hip abnormalities in children, including slipped capital femoral epiphysis, proximal femoral focal deficiency, coxa vara, a deep acetabulum and, rarely, developmental dysplasia of the hip. Orthopedic surgeons also are interested in quantifying the femoral neck anteversion or retroversion in children especially to plan derotational osteotomies. Historically, the angle of femoral version and tibial torsion has been measured with the use of radiography and later by CT. Both methods carry with them the risks associated with ionizing radiation. Techniques that utilize MR are used less often because of the associated lengthy imaging times. This article describes a technique using MRI to determine femoral neck version and tibial torsion with total scan times of approximately 10 min. (orig.)

[Multicentre, prospective cohort study, to validate the Italian version of the Braden Q scale for the risk of the pressure sores in newborns and up to 8 years old children].

Science.gov (United States)

Chiari, Paolo; Poli, Marco; Magli, Claudia; Bascelli, Emanuele; Rocchi, Roberto; Bolognini, Silvia; Tartari, Piero; Armuzzi, Roberta; Rossi, Gianna; Peghetti, Angela; Biavati, Catia; Fontana, Mirella; Gazineo, Domenica; Cordella, Simona; Tiozzo, Emanuela; Ciliento, Gaetano; Carta, Giovanna; Taddia, Patrizia

2012-01-01

Multicenter prospective cohort study, to validate the Italian version of the Braden Q scale for the risk of pressure sores in newborns and up to 8 years old children. Children admitted to Intensive care Units (ICU), oncology and neurology/neurosurgery wards are at risk of developing pressure sores. To validate the Italian version of the Braden Q scale for the assessment of the risk of developing pressure sores in children. Children from 21 days to 8 years, admitted to intensive and sub intensive units were recruited. Premature babies, children admitted with a pressure sore and with a story of congenital cardiomiopathy were excluded. In this cohort, multicentre and with repeated measurements study, the first assessment was performed after 24 hours from hospital admission, using the Braden Q Scale (Suddaby's version). The pressure sores were assessed with the Skin assessment Tool and staged according to the National Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel. RESULTS. On the 157 children 524 observation were conducted. The incidence of pressure sores was 17.2%. Only the analysis on specific subgroups of patients showed a good diagnostic accuracy: 71.4% on children 3-8 years; 85.6% in sub intensive wards. The Braden Q scale may be reliably used and shows a good diagnostic accuracy in children 3-8 years of age admitted to sub-intensive, neurology, oncology and heamatology wards.

Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0. Volume 5, Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) tutorial manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.; Russell, K.D.; Skinner, N.L.

1994-07-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) primarily for nuclear power plants. This volume is the tutorial manual for the Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System Version 5.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a open-quotes familyclose quotes [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. A series of lessons is provided that guides the user through some basic steps common to most analyses performed with SARA. The example problems presented in the lessons build on one another, and in combination, lead the user through all aspects of SARA sensitivity analysis capabilities

Suicidal Ideation and Interpersonal Needs: Factor Structure of a Short Version of the Interpersonal Needs Questionnaire in an At-Risk Military Sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Allan, Nicholas P; Gros, Daniel F; Hom, Melanie A; Joiner, Thomas E; Stecker, Tracy

2016-01-01

The interpersonal-psychological theory of suicide posits that perceived burdensomeness (PB; i.e., the belief that others would be better off if one were dead) and thwarted belongingness (TB; i.e., the belief that one lacks meaningful social connections) are both necessary risk factors for the development of suicidal ideation. To test these relations, measures are needed that are well validated, especially in samples of at-risk adults. The current study was designed to examine the factor structure of an eight-item version of the Interpersonal Needs Questionnaire (INQ) in a sample of 405 U.S. past and current military personnel (M age  = 31.57 years, SD = 7.28; 90.4% male) who endorsed either current suicidal ideation and/or a past suicide attempt. Analyses were conducted using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). A bifactor model comprising a general factor, labeled interpersonal needs, and two specific factors, labeled PB and TB, fit the data best. The general factor captured a high proportion of overall variance (81.9%). In contrast, the TB factor captured only a modest amount of variance in items meant to capture this factor (59.1%) and the PB factor captured very little variance in items meant to capture this factor (13.5%). Further, only the interpersonal needs factor was associated with lifetime and past-week suicidal ideation as well as suicidal ideation frequency and duration. The current findings indicate that, for the INQ-8 in high-risk military personnel, a general interpersonal needs factor accounted for the relations PB and TB share with suicidal ideation.

Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Systems analysis programs for Hands-on integrated reliability evaluations (SAPHIRE) Version 5.0: Verification and validation (V ampersand V) manual. Volume 9

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, J.L.; Calley, M.B.; Capps, E.L.; Zeigler, S.L.; Galyean, W.J.; Novack, S.D.; Smith, C.L.; Wolfram, L.M.

1995-03-01

A verification and validation (V ampersand V) process has been performed for the System Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluation (SAPHIRE) Version 5.0. SAPHIRE is a set of four computer programs that NRC developed for performing probabilistic risk assessments. They allow an analyst to perform many of the functions necessary to create, quantify, and evaluate the risk associated with a facility or process being analyzed. The programs are Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA), Models And Results Database (MAR-D), and Fault tree, Event tree, and Piping and instrumentation diagram (FEP) graphical editor. Intent of this program is to perform a V ampersand V of successive versions of SAPHIRE. Previous efforts have been the V ampersand V of SAPHIRE Version 4.0. The SAPHIRE 5.0 V ampersand V plan is based on the SAPHIRE 4.0 V ampersand V plan with revisions to incorporate lessons learned from the previous effort. Also, the SAPHIRE 5.0 vital and nonvital test procedures are based on the test procedures from SAPHIRE 4.0 with revisions to include the new SAPHIRE 5.0 features as well as to incorporate lessons learned from the previous effort. Most results from the testing were acceptable; however, some discrepancies between expected code operation and actual code operation were identified. Modifications made to SAPHIRE are identified

Recent extensions and use of the statistical model code EMPIRE-II - version: 2.17 Millesimo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herman, M.

2003-01-01

This lecture notes describe new features of the modular code EMPIRE-2.17 designed to perform comprehensive calculations of nuclear reactions using variety of nuclear reaction models. Compared to the version 2.13, the current release has been extended by including Coupled-Channel mechanism, exciton model, Monte Carlo approach to preequilibrium emission, use of microscopic level densities, widths fluctuation correction, detailed calculation of the recoil spectra, and powerful plotting capabilities provided by the ZVView package. The second part of this lecture concentrates on the use of the code in practical calculations, with emphasis on the aspects relevant to nuclear data evaluation. In particular, adjusting model parameters is discussed in details. (author)

A description of the FAMOUS (version XDBUA climate model and control run

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Osprey

2008-12-01

Full Text Available FAMOUS is an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model of low resolution, capable of simulating approximately 120 years of model climate per wallclock day using current high performance computing facilities. It uses most of the same code as HadCM3, a widely used climate model of higher resolution and computational cost, and has been tuned to reproduce the same climate reasonably well. FAMOUS is useful for climate simulations where the computational cost makes the application of HadCM3 unfeasible, either because of the length of simulation or the size of the ensemble desired. We document a number of scientific and technical improvements to the original version of FAMOUS. These improvements include changes to the parameterisations of ozone and sea-ice which alleviate a significant cold bias from high northern latitudes and the upper troposphere, and the elimination of volume-averaged drifts in ocean tracers. A simple model of the marine carbon cycle has also been included. A particular goal of FAMOUS is to conduct millennial-scale paleoclimate simulations of Quaternary ice ages; to this end, a number of useful changes to the model infrastructure have been made.

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

1990-01-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

Methods for assessing fracture risk prediction models: experience with FRAX in a large integrated health care delivery system.

Science.gov (United States)

Pressman, Alice R; Lo, Joan C; Chandra, Malini; Ettinger, Bruce

2011-01-01

Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve is often used to evaluate risk models. However, reclassification tests provide an alternative assessment of model performance. We performed both evaluations on results from FRAX (World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, UK), a fracture risk tool, using Kaiser Permanente Northern California women older than 50yr with bone mineral density (BMD) measured during 1997-2003. We compared FRAX performance with and without BMD in the model. Among 94,489 women with mean follow-up of 6.6yr, 1579 (1.7%) sustained a hip fracture. Overall, AUROCs were 0.83 and 0.84 for FRAX without and with BMD, suggesting that BMD did not contribute to model performance. AUROC decreased with increasing age, and BMD contributed significantly to higher AUROC among those aged 70yr and older. Using an 81% sensitivity threshold (optimum level from receiver operating characteristic curve, corresponding to 1.2% cutoff), 35% of those categorized above were reassigned below when BMD was added. In contrast, only 10% of those categorized below were reassigned to the higher risk category when BMD was added. The net reclassification improvement was 5.5% (p<0.01). Two versions of this risk tool have similar AUROCs, but alternative assessments indicate that addition of BMD improves performance. Multiple methods should be used to evaluate risk tool performance with less reliance on AUROC alone. Copyright © 2011 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computer code for general analysis of radon risks (GARR)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ginevan, M.

1984-09-01

This document presents a computer model for general analysis of radon risks that allow the user to specify a large number of possible models with a small number of simple commands. The model is written in a version of BASIC which conforms closely to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) definition for minimal BASIC and thus is readily modified for use on a wide variety of computers and, in particular, microcomputers. Model capabilities include generation of single-year life tables from 5-year abridged data, calculation of multiple-decrement life tables for lung cancer for the general population, smokers, and nonsmokers, and a cohort lung cancer risk calculation that allows specification of level and duration of radon exposure, the form of the risk model, and the specific population assumed at risk. 36 references, 8 figures, 7 tables

The Global Flood Model

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

2012-04-01

Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

1999-12-01

Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

1999-01-01

Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

Fuzzy audit risk modeling algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zohreh Hajihaa

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Fuzzy logic has created suitable mathematics for making decisions in uncertain environments including professional judgments. One of the situations is to assess auditee risks. During recent years, risk based audit (RBA has been regarded as one of the main tools to fight against fraud. The main issue in RBA is to determine the overall audit risk an auditor accepts, which impact the efficiency of an audit. The primary objective of this research is to redesign the audit risk model (ARM proposed by auditing standards. The proposed model of this paper uses fuzzy inference systems (FIS based on the judgments of audit experts. The implementation of proposed fuzzy technique uses triangular fuzzy numbers to express the inputs and Mamdani method along with center of gravity are incorporated for defuzzification. The proposed model uses three FISs for audit, inherent and control risks, and there are five levels of linguistic variables for outputs. FISs include 25, 25 and 81 rules of if-then respectively and officials of Iranian audit experts confirm all the rules.

Modeling for operational event risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.

1997-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

Identifying child abuse and neglect risk among postpartum women in Japan using the Japanese version of the Kempe Family Stress Checklist.

Science.gov (United States)

Baba, Kaori; Kataoka, Yaeko

2014-11-01

The aims of this study were to determine the rate of women who are high-risk for child abuse and neglect in a perinatal unit in Japan, and to identify the factors associated with risk level. To assess the potential risk for child abuse and neglect the Japanese version of the Kempe Family Stress Checklist (FSC-J) was used to guide interviews with postpartum women. FSC-J uses a three-point scale to score 10 categories, categorizing responses as "no risk=0", "risk=5", and "high risk=10". The range of FSC-J is 0-100. Using an established cutoff point of 25, subjects were divided into high and low risk groups. For both groups, relationships between factors were analyzed. Of the 174 subjects who agreed to participate, 12 (6.9%) scored high-risk, and 162 (93.1%) scored low-risk. Adjusted odds ratio identified three associated factors as important for predicting risk level: past mental illness (OR=341.1), previous experience of intimate partner violence (OR=68.0), and having a partner who was unemployed (OR=14.5). Although this study was on a small sample of women in one hospital in Japan and a larger population would make this study much stronger, these results suggest that some 6.9% of postpartum women in Japan may be at high-risk for child abuse and neglect. It is critical, therefore, to develop a system for screening, intervention, and referral for such women and their children. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) version le as coupled to the NCAR community climate model. Technical note. [NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dickinson, R.E.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Kennedy, P.J.

1993-08-01

A comprehensive model of land-surface processes has been under development suitable for use with various National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Models (GCMs). Special emphasis has been given to describing properly the role of vegetation in modifying the surface moisture and energy budgets. The result of these efforts has been incorporated into a boundary package, referred to as the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The current frozen version, BATS1e is a piece of software about four thousand lines of code that runs as an offline version or coupled to the Community Climate Model (CCM).

Mode of delivery after successful external cephalic version: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

de Hundt, Marcella; Velzel, Joost; de Groot, Christianne J; Mol, Ben W; Kok, Marjolein

2014-06-01

To assess the mode of delivery in women after a successful external cephalic version by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and the Cochrane Library for studies reporting on the mode of delivery in women after successful external cephalic version at term and women with a spontaneous cephalic-presenting fetus. Two reviewers independently selected studies, extracted data, and assessed study quality. The association between mode of delivery and successful external cephalic version was expressed as a common odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval (CI). We identified three cohort studies and eight case-control studies, reporting on 46,641 women. The average cesarean delivery rate for women with a successful external cephalic version was 21%. Women after successful external cephalic version were at increased risk for cesarean delivery for dystocia (odds ratio [OR] 2.2, 95% CI 1.6-3.0), cesarean delivery for fetal distress (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.6-2.9), and instrumental vaginal delivery (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.7). Women who have had a successful external cephalic version for breech presentation are at increased risk for cesarean delivery and instrumental vaginal delivery as compared with women with a spontaneous cephalic presentation. Nevertheless, with a number needed to treat of three, external cephalic version still remains a very efficient procedure to prevent a cesarean delivery.

[External cephalic version].

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro-Santana, B; Duarez-Coronado, M; Plaza-Arranz, J

2016-08-01

To analyze the rate of successful external cephalic versions in our center and caesarean sections that would be avoided with the use of external cephalic versions. From January 2012 to March 2016 external cephalic versions carried out at our center, which were a total of 52. We collected data about female age, gestational age at the time of the external cephalic version, maternal body mass index (BMI), fetal variety and situation, fetal weight, parity, location of the placenta, amniotic fluid index (ILA), tocolysis, analgesia, and newborn weight at birth, minor adverse effects (dizziness, hypotension and maternal pain) and major adverse effects (tachycardia, bradycardia, decelerations and emergency cesarean section). 45% of the versions were unsuccessful and 55% were successful. The percentage of successful vaginal delivery in versions was 84% (4% were instrumental) and 15% of caesarean sections. With respect to the variables studied, only significant differences in birth weight were found; suggesting that birth weight it is related to the outcome of external cephalic version. Probably we did not find significant differences due to the number of patients studied. For women with breech presentation, we recommend external cephalic version before the expectant management or performing a cesarean section. The external cephalic version increases the proportion of fetuses in cephalic presentation and also decreases the rate of caesarean sections.

A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

2011-07-01

Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

A comparison of models for risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kellerer, A.M.; Jing Chen

1993-01-01

Various mathematical models have been used to represent the dependence of excess cancer risk on dose, age and time since exposure. For solid cancers, i.e. all cancers except leukaemia, the so-called relative risk model is usually employed. However, there can be quite different relative risk models. The most usual model for the quantification of excess tumour rate among the atomic bomb survivors has been a dependence of the relative risk on age at exposure, but it has been shown recently that an age attained model can be equally applied, to represent the observations among the atomic bomb survivors. The differences between the models and their implications are explained. It is also shown that the age attained model is similar to the approaches that have been used in the analysis of lung cancer incidence among radon exposed miners. A more unified approach to modelling of radiation risks can thus be achieved. (3 figs.)

Guideline for radioiodine therapy for benign thyroid diseases (version 3)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dietlein, M.; Schicha, H.; Dressler, J.; Gruenwald, F.; Leisner, B.; Moser, E.; Reiners, C.; Schneider, P.; Schober, O.

2004-01-01

The version 3 of the guideline for radioiodine therapy for benign thyroid diseases presents first of all a revision of the version 2. The chapter indication for radioiodine therapy, surgical treatment or antithyroid drugs bases on an interdisciplinary consensus. The manifold criteria for decision making consider the entity of thyroid disease (autonomy, Graves' disease, goitre, goitre recurrence), the thyroid volume, suspicion of malignancy, cystic nodules, risk of surgery and co-morbidity, history of subtotal thyroidectomy, persistent or recurrent thyrotoxicosis caused by Graves' disease including known risk factors for relapse, compression of the trachea caused by goitre, requirement of direct therapeutic effect as well as the patient's preference. Because often some of these criteria are relevant, the guideline offers the necessary flexibility for individual decisions. Further topics are patients' preparation, counseling, dosage concepts, procedural details, results, side effects and follow-up care. The prophylactic use of glucocorticoids during radioiodine therapy in patients without preexisting ophthalmopathy as well as dosage and duration of glucocorticoid medication in patients with preexisting ophthalmopathy need to be clarified in further studies. The pragmatic recommendations for the combined use of radioiodine and glucocorticoids remained unchanged in the 3 rd version. (orig.) [de

MODELING CREDIT RISK THROUGH CREDIT SCORING

OpenAIRE

Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI

2014-01-01

Credit risk governs all financial transactions and it is defined as the risk of suffering a loss due to certain shifts in the credit quality of a counterpart. Credit risk literature gravitates around two main modeling approaches: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. In addition to these perspectives, credit risk assessment has been conducted through a series of techniques such as credit scoring models, which form the traditional approach. This paper examines the evolution of...

Programs OPTMAN and SHEMMAN Version 6 (1999) - Coupled-Channels optical model and collective nuclear structure calculation -

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Jong Hwa; Lee, Jeong Yeon; Lee, Young Ouk; Sukhovitski, Efrem Sh [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

2000-01-01

Programs SHEMMAN and OPTMAN (Version 6) have been developed for determinations of nuclear Hamiltonian parameters and for optical model calculations, respectively. The optical model calculations by OPTMAN with coupling schemes built on wave functions functions of non-axial soft-rotator are self-consistent, since the parameters of the nuclear Hamiltonian are determined by adjusting the energies of collective levels to experimental values with SHEMMAN prior to the optical model calculation. The programs have been installed at Nuclear Data Evaluation Laboratory of KAERI. This report is intended as a brief manual of these codes. 43 refs., 9 figs., 1 tabs. (Author)

Interventions to help external cephalic version for breech presentation at term.

Science.gov (United States)

Hofmeyr, G J

2004-01-01

Breech presentation places a fetus at increased risk. The outcome for the baby is improved by planned caesarean section compared with planned vaginal delivery. External cephalic version attempts to reduce the chances of breech presentation at birth, but is not always successful. Tocolytic drugs to relax the uterus as well as other methods have been used in an attempt to facilitate external cephalic version at term. To assess the effects of routine tocolysis, fetal acoustic stimulation, epidural or spinal analgesia and transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term on successful version and measures of pregnancy outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (September 2003) and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library, Issue 3, 2003) were searched. Randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing routine versus selective or no tocolysis; fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions versus dummy or no stimulation; epidural or spinal analgesia versus no regional analgesia; or transabdominal amnioinfusion versus no amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term. The reviewer assessed eligibility and trial quality. In six trials, routine tocolysis with beta-stimulants was associated with fewer failures of external cephalic version (relative risk (RR) 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64 to 0.87). The reduction in non-cephalic presentations at birth was not statistically significant. Caesarean sections were reduced (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.99). In four small trials, sublingual nitroglycerine used as a tocolytic was associated with significant side-effects, and was not found to be effective. Fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions was associated with fewer failures of external cephalic version at term (RR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.60). With epidural or spinal analgesia, external cephalic version failure, non-cephalic births and caesarean sections were

Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Final Report, Version 2)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA's announced the availability of the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2). This update furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing developmen...

Cabin Environment Physics Risk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Mathias, Donovan Leigh

2014-01-01

This paper presents a Cabin Environment Physics Risk (CEPR) model that predicts the time for an initial failure of Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) functionality to propagate into a hazardous environment and trigger a loss-of-crew (LOC) event. This physics-of failure model allows a probabilistic risk assessment of a crewed spacecraft to account for the cabin environment, which can serve as a buffer to protect the crew during an abort from orbit and ultimately enable a safe return. The results of the CEPR model replace the assumption that failure of the crew critical ECLSS functionality causes LOC instantly, and provide a more accurate representation of the spacecraft's risk posture. The instant-LOC assumption is shown to be excessively conservative and, moreover, can impact the relative risk drivers identified for the spacecraft. This, in turn, could lead the design team to allocate mass for equipment to reduce overly conservative risk estimates in a suboptimal configuration, which inherently increases the overall risk to the crew. For example, available mass could be poorly used to add redundant ECLSS components that have a negligible benefit but appear to make the vehicle safer due to poor assumptions about the propagation time of ECLSS failures.

Risk modelling study for carotid endarterectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuhan, G; Gardiner, E D; Abidia, A F; Chetter, I C; Renwick, P M; Johnson, B F; Wilkinson, A R; McCollum, P T

2001-12-01

The aims of this study were to identify factors that influence the risk of stroke or death following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and to develop a model to aid in comparative audit of vascular surgeons and units. A series of 839 CEAs performed by four vascular surgeons between 1992 and 1999 was analysed. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to model the effect of 15 possible risk factors on the 30-day risk of stroke or death. Outcome was compared for four surgeons and two units after adjustment for the significant risk factors. The overall 30-day stroke or death rate was 3.9 per cent (29 of 741). Heart disease, diabetes and stroke were significant risk factors. The 30-day predicted stroke or death rates increased with increasing risk scores. The observed 30-day stroke or death rate was 3.9 per cent for both vascular units and varied from 3.0 to 4.2 per cent for the four vascular surgeons. Differences in the outcomes between the surgeons and vascular units did not reach statistical significance after risk adjustment. Diabetes, heart disease and stroke are significant risk factors for stroke or death following CEA. The risk score model identified patients at higher risk and aided in comparative audit.

Risk of developmental dysplasia of the hip in breech presentation: the effect of successful external cephalic version.

Science.gov (United States)

Lambeek, A F; De Hundt, M; Vlemmix, F; Akerboom, B M C; Bais, J M J; Papatsonis, D N M; Mol, B W J; Kok, M

2013-04-01

To evaluate the effect of successful external cephalic version on the incidence of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) requiring treatment in singleton breech presentation at term. Observational cohort study. Three large teaching hospitals in the Netherlands. Women with a singleton breech presentation of 34 weeks of gestation or more, who underwent an external cephalic version attempt. We made a comparison of the incidence of DDH between children born in breech presentation and children born in cephalic presentation after a successful external cephalic version. The incidence of DDH requiring either conservative treatment, with a harness, or surgical treatment. A total of 498 newborns were included in the study, of which 40 (8%) were diagnosed with DDH and 35 required treatment. Multivariate analysis showed that female gender (OR 2.79, 95% CI 1.23-6.35) and successful external cephalic version (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.09-0.95) were independently associated with DDH. A successful external cephalic version is associated with a lower incidence of DDH, although a high percentage of children born after a successful external cephalic version still appear to have DDH. A larger cohort study is needed to establish the definite nature of this relationship. Until then, we recommend the same screening policy for infants born in cephalic position after a successful external cephalic version as for infants born in breech position. © 2012 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2012 RCOG.

CLIPS 6.0 - C LANGUAGE INTEGRATED PRODUCTION SYSTEM, VERSION 6.0 (DEC VAX VMS VERSION)

Science.gov (United States)

Donnell, B.

1994-01-01

CLIPS, the C Language Integrated Production System, is a complete environment for developing expert systems -- programs which are specifically intended to model human expertise or knowledge. It is designed to allow artificial intelligence research, development, and delivery on conventional computers. CLIPS 6.0 provides a cohesive tool for handling a wide variety of knowledge with support for three different programming paradigms: rule-based, object-oriented, and procedural. Rule-based programming allows knowledge to be represented as heuristics, or "rules-of-thumb" which specify a set of actions to be performed for a given situation. Object-oriented programming allows complex systems to be modeled as modular components (which can be easily reused to model other systems or create new components). The procedural programming capabilities provided by CLIPS 6.0 allow CLIPS to represent knowledge in ways similar to those allowed in languages such as C, Pascal, Ada, and LISP. Using CLIPS 6.0, one can develop expert system software using only rule-based programming, only object-oriented programming, only procedural programming, or combinations of the three. CLIPS provides extensive features to support the rule-based programming paradigm including seven conflict resolution strategies, dynamic rule priorities, and truth maintenance. CLIPS 6.0 supports more complex nesting of conditional elements in the if portion of a rule ("and", "or", and "not" conditional elements can be placed within a "not" conditional element). In addition, there is no longer a limitation on the number of multifield slots that a deftemplate can contain. The CLIPS Object-Oriented Language (COOL) provides object-oriented programming capabilities. Features supported by COOL include classes with multiple inheritance, abstraction, encapsulation, polymorphism, dynamic binding, and message passing with message-handlers. CLIPS 6.0 supports tight integration of the rule-based programming features of CLIPS with

Systems analysis programs for hands-on integrated reliability evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; Kvarfordt, K.J.; Hoffman, C.L.

1995-10-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), primarily for nuclear power plants. The Graphical Evaluation Module (GEM) is a special application tool designed for evaluation of operational occurrences using the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program methods. GEM provides the capability for an analyst to quickly and easily perform conditional core damage probability (CCDP) calculations. The analyst can then use the CCDP calculations to determine if the occurrence of an initiating event or a condition adversely impacts safety. It uses models and data developed in the SAPHIRE specially for the ASP program. GEM requires more data than that normally provided in SAPHIRE and will not perform properly with other models or data bases. This is the first release of GEM and the developers of GEM welcome user comments and feedback that will generate ideas for improvements to future versions. GEM is designated as version 5.0 to track GEM codes along with the other SAPHIRE codes as the GEM relies on the same, shared database structure

Integrated source-risk model for radon: A definition study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laheij, G.M.H.; Aldenkamp, F.J.; Stoop, P.

1993-10-01

The purpose of a source-risk model is to support policy making on radon mitigation by comparing effects of various policy options and to enable optimization of counter measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain. There are several advantages developing and using a source-risk model: risk calculations are standardized; the effects of measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain can be better compared because interactions are included; and sensitivity analyses can be used to determine the most important parameters within the total source-risk chain. After an inventory of processes and sources to be included in the source-risk chain, the models presently available in the Netherlands are investigated. The models were screened for completeness, validation and operational status. The investigation made clear that, by choosing for each part of the source-risk chain the most convenient model, a source-risk chain model for radon may be realized. However, the calculation of dose out of the radon concentrations and the status of the validation of most models should be improved. Calculations with the proposed source-risk model will give estimations with a large uncertainty at the moment. For further development of the source-risk model an interaction between the source-risk model and experimental research is recommended. Organisational forms of the source-risk model are discussed. A source-risk model in which only simple models are included is also recommended. The other models are operated and administrated by the model owners. The model owners execute their models for a combination of input parameters. The output of the models is stored in a database which will be used for calculations with the source-risk model. 5 figs., 15 tabs., 7 appendices, 14 refs

Fuel behaviour calculations with version 2.0 of the code FUROM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kulacsy, K.

2011-01-01

The fuel modelling code FUROM (FUel ROd Model), suitable for calculating the normal operation condition behaviour of PWR and WWER fuels, has been developed at AEKI for several years. In 2010 the new version of the code, FUROM-2.0 was released. Calculations performed with this version and results are presented. (author)

Conceptual Model of an Application for Automated Generation of Webpage Mobile Versions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Todor Rachovski

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Accessing webpages through various types of mobile devices with different screen sizes and using different browsers has put new demands on web developers. The main challenge is the development of websites with responsive design that is adaptable depending on the mobile device used. The article presents a conceptual model of an app for automated generation of mobile pages. It has five-layer architecture: database, database management layer, business logic layer, web services layer and a presentation layer. The database stores all the data needed to run the application. The database management layer uses an ORM model to convert relational data into an object-oriented format and control the access to them. The business logic layer contains components that perform the actual work on building a mobile version of the page, including parsing, building a hierarchical model of the page and a number of transformations. The web services layer provides external applications with access to lower-level functionalities, and the presentation layer is responsible for choosing and using the appropriate CSS. A web application that uses the proposed model was developed and experiments were conducted.

Quantitative occupational risk model: Single hazard

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papazoglou, I.A.; Aneziris, O.N.; Bellamy, L.J.; Ale, B.J.M.; Oh, J.

2017-01-01

A model for the quantification of occupational risk of a worker exposed to a single hazard is presented. The model connects the working conditions and worker behaviour to the probability of an accident resulting into one of three types of consequence: recoverable injury, permanent injury and death. Working conditions and safety barriers in place to reduce the likelihood of an accident are included. Logical connections are modelled through an influence diagram. Quantification of the model is based on two sources of information: a) number of accidents observed over a period of time and b) assessment of exposure data of activities and working conditions over the same period of time and the same working population. Effectiveness of risk reducing measures affecting the working conditions, worker behaviour and/or safety barriers can be quantified through the effect of these measures on occupational risk. - Highlights: • Quantification of occupational risk from a single hazard. • Influence diagram connects working conditions, worker behaviour and safety barriers. • Necessary data include the number of accidents and the total exposure of worker • Effectiveness of risk reducing measures is quantified through the impact on the risk • An example illustrates the methodology.

Online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1)

Science.gov (United States)

Quiquet, Aurélien; Roche, Didier M.; Dumas, Christophe; Paillard, Didier

2018-02-01

This paper presents the inclusion of an online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation within the model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM v1.1. We describe the following methodology to generate temperature and precipitation fields on a 40 km × 40 km Cartesian grid of the Northern Hemisphere from the T21 native atmospheric model grid. Our scheme is not grid specific and conserves energy and moisture in the same way as the original climate model. We show that we are able to generate a high-resolution field which presents a spatial variability in better agreement with the observations compared to the standard model. Although the large-scale model biases are not corrected, for selected model parameters, the downscaling can induce a better overall performance compared to the standard version on both the high-resolution grid and on the native grid. Foreseen applications of this new model feature include the improvement of ice sheet model coupling and high-resolution land surface models.

SHABERTH - ANALYSIS OF A SHAFT BEARING SYSTEM (CRAY VERSION)

Science.gov (United States)

Coe, H. H.

1994-01-01

shear forces in the inlet zone of lubricated contacts, which accounts for the degree of lubricant film starvation; modeling normal and friction forces between a ball and a cage pocket, which account for the transition between the hydrodynamic and elastohydrodynamic regimes of lubrication; and a model of the effect on fatigue life of the ratio of the EHD plateau film thickness to the composite surface roughness. SHABERTH is intended to be as general as possible. The models in SHABERTH allow for the complete mathematical simulation of real physical systems. Systems are limited to a maximum of five bearings supporting the shaft, a maximum of thirty rolling elements per bearing, and a maximum of one hundred temperature nodes. The SHABERTH program structure is modular and has been designed to permit refinement and replacement of various component models as the need and opportunities develop. A preprocessor is included in the IBM PC version of SHABERTH to provide a user friendly means of developing SHABERTH models and executing the resulting code. The preprocessor allows the user to create and modify data files with minimal effort and a reduced chance for errors. Data is utilized as it is entered; the preprocessor then decides what additional data is required to complete the model. Only this required information is requested. The preprocessor can accommodate data input for any SHABERTH compatible shaft bearing system model. The system may include ball bearings, roller bearings, and/or tapered roller bearings. SHABERTH is written in FORTRAN 77, and two machine versions are available from COSMIC. The CRAY version (LEW-14860) has a RAM requirement of 176K of 64 bit words. The IBM PC version (MFS-28818) is written for IBM PC series and compatible computers running MS-DOS, and includes a sample MS-DOS executable. For execution, the PC version requires at least 1Mb of RAM and an 80386 or 486 processor machine with an 80x87 math co-processor. The standard distribution medium for the

Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) - Monthly, Version 2.2 (Version Superseded)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Version 2.2 of the dataset has been superseded by a newer version. Users should not use version 2.2 except in rare cases (e.g., when reproducing previous studies...

Evaluation of the nutritional status of older hospitalised geriatric patients: a comparative analysis of a Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) version and the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS 2002).

Science.gov (United States)

Christner, S; Ritt, M; Volkert, D; Wirth, R; Sieber, C C; Gaßmann, K-G

2016-12-01

The present study aimed to evaluate a short-form (MNA-SF) version of the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), in which some of the items were operationalised, based on scores from tools used for a comprehensive geriatric assessment, as a method for analysing the nutritional status of hospitalised geriatric patients. We compared this MNA-SF version with the corresponding MNA long-form (MNA-LF) and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) in terms of completion rate, prevalence and agreement regarding malnutrition and/or the risk of this. In total, 201 patients aged ≥65 years who were hospitalised in geriatric wards were included in this analysis. The MNA-SF, MNA-LF and NRS 2002 were completed in 98.0%, 95.5% and 99.5% of patients (P = 0.06), respectively. The MNA-SF, MNA-LF and NRS 2002 categorised 93.4%, 91.1% and 66.0% of patients as being malnourished or at risk of being malnourished (P evaluating the nutritional status of hospitalised geriatric patients. The NRS 2002 part 1 showed limited value as a prescreening aid in relation to the NRS 2002 part 2 in the same group of patients. © 2016 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Evaluation of dust and trace metal estimates from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model version 5.0

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. W. Appel

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transformation, transport, and fate of the many different air pollutant species that comprise particulate matter (PM, including dust (or soil. The CMAQ model version 5.0 (CMAQv5.0 has several enhancements over the previous version of the model for estimating the emission and transport of dust, including the ability to track the specific elemental constituents of dust and have the model-derived concentrations of those elements participate in chemistry. The latest version of the model also includes a parameterization to estimate emissions of dust due to wind action. The CMAQv5.0 modeling system was used to simulate the entire year 2006 for the continental United States, and the model estimates were evaluated against daily surface-based measurements from several air quality networks. The CMAQ modeling system overall did well replicating the observed soil concentrations in the western United States (mean bias generally around ±0.5 μg m−3; however, the model consistently overestimated the observed soil concentrations in the eastern United States (mean bias generally between 0.5–1.5 μg m−3, regardless of season. The performance of the individual trace metals was highly dependent on the network, species, and season, with relatively small biases for Fe, Al, Si, and Ti throughout the year at the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE sites, while Ca, K, and Mn were overestimated and Mg underestimated. For the urban Chemical Speciation Network (CSN sites, Fe, Mg, and Mn, while overestimated, had comparatively better performance throughout the year than the other trace metals, which were consistently overestimated, including very large overestimations of Al (380%, Ti (370% and Si (470% in the fall. An underestimation of nighttime mixing in the urban areas appears to contribute to the overestimation of

NETS - A NEURAL NETWORK DEVELOPMENT TOOL, VERSION 3.0 (MACINTOSH VERSION)

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, T. A.

1994-01-01

NETS, A Tool for the Development and Evaluation of Neural Networks, provides a simulation of Neural Network algorithms plus an environment for developing such algorithms. Neural Networks are a class of systems modeled after the human brain. Artificial Neural Networks are formed from hundreds or thousands of simulated neurons, connected to each other in a manner similar to brain neurons. Problems which involve pattern matching readily fit the class of problems which NETS is designed to solve. NETS uses the back propagation learning method for all of the networks which it creates. The nodes of a network are usually grouped together into clumps called layers. Generally, a network will have an input layer through which the various environment stimuli are presented to the network, and an output layer for determining the network's response. The number of nodes in these two layers is usually tied to some features of the problem being solved. Other layers, which form intermediate stops between the input and output layers, are called hidden layers. NETS allows the user to customize the patterns of connections between layers of a network. NETS also provides features for saving the weight values of a network during the learning process, which allows for more precise control over the learning process. NETS is an interpreter. Its method of execution is the familiar "read-evaluate-print" loop found in interpreted languages such as BASIC and LISP. The user is presented with a prompt which is the simulator's way of asking for input. After a command is issued, NETS will attempt to evaluate the command, which may produce more prompts requesting specific information or an error if the command is not understood. The typical process involved when using NETS consists of translating the problem into a format which uses input/output pairs, designing a network configuration for the problem, and finally training the network with input/output pairs until an acceptable error is reached. NETS

QMM – A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy. Version 2.0

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ólafsson, Tjörvi

This paper documents and describes Version 2.0 of the Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Central Bank of Iceland (QMM). QMM and the underlying quarterly database have been under construction since 2001 at the Research and Forecasting Division of the Economics Department at the Bank and was first...... implemented in the forecasting round for the Monetary Bulletin 2006/1 in March 2006. QMM is used by the Bank for forecasting and various policy simulations and therefore plays a key role as an organisational framework for viewing the medium-term future when formulating monetary policy at the Bank. This paper...

A model-based risk management framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

2002-08-15

The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

2011-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...

LERC-SLAM - THE NASA LEWIS RESEARCH CENTER SATELLITE LINK ATTENUATION MODEL PROGRAM (IBM PC VERSION)

Science.gov (United States)

Manning, R. M.

1994-01-01

The frequency and intensity of rain attenuation affecting the communication between a satellite and an earth terminal is an important consideration in planning satellite links. The NASA Lewis Research Center Satellite Link Attenuation Model Program (LeRC-SLAM) provides a static and dynamic statistical assessment of the impact of rain attenuation on a communications link established between an earth terminal and a geosynchronous satellite. The program is designed for use in the specification, design and assessment of satellite links for any terminal location in the continental United States. The basis for LeRC-SLAM is the ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model, which uses a log-normal cumulative probability distribution to describe the random process of rain attenuation on satellite links. The derivation of the statistics for the rainrate process at the specified terminal location relies on long term rainfall records compiled by the U.S. Weather Service during time periods of up to 55 years in length. The theory of extreme value statistics is also utilized. The user provides 1) the longitudinal position of the satellite in geosynchronous orbit, 2) the geographical position of the earth terminal in terms of latitude and longitude, 3) the height above sea level of the terminal site, 4) the yearly average rainfall at the terminal site, and 5) the operating frequency of the communications link (within 1 to 1000 GHz, inclusive). Based on the yearly average rainfall at the terminal location, LeRC-SLAM calculates the relevant rain statistics for the site using an internal data base. The program then generates rain attenuation data for the satellite link. This data includes a description of the static (i.e., yearly) attenuation process, an evaluation of the cumulative probability distribution for attenuation effects, and an evaluation of the probability of fades below selected fade depths. In addition, LeRC-SLAM calculates the elevation and azimuth angles of the terminal

Risk management model of winter navigation operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valdez Banda, Osiris A.; Goerlandt, Floris; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti; Montewka, Jakub

2016-01-01

The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish–Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. - Highlights: •A model to assess and manage the risk of winter navigation operations is proposed. •The risks of oil spills in winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland are analysed. •The model assesses and prioritizes actions to control the risk of the operations. •The model suggests navigational training as the most efficient risk control option.

A Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT scale for adult populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ann-Renée Blais

2006-07-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a revised version of the original Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT scale developed by Weber, Blais, and Betz (2002 that is shorter and applicable to a {broader range of ages, cultures, and educational levels}. It also provides a French translation of the revised scale. Using multilevel modeling, we investigated the risk-return relationship between apparent risk taking and risk perception in 5 risk domains. The results replicate previously noted differences in reported degree of risk taking and risk perception at the mean level of analysis. The multilevel modeling shows, more interestingly, that within-participants variation in risk taking across the 5 content domains of the scale was about 7 times as large as between-participants variation. We discuss the implications of our findings in terms of the person-situation debate related to risk attitude

Use and Customization of Risk Scores for Predicting Cardiovascular Events Using Electronic Health Record Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolfson, Julian; Vock, David M; Bandyopadhyay, Sunayan; Kottke, Thomas; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Johnson, Paul; Adomavicius, Gediminas; O'Connor, Patrick J

2017-04-24

Clinicians who are using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) to estimate risk for their patients based on electronic health data (EHD) face 4 questions. (1) Do published risk scores applied to EHD yield accurate estimates of cardiovascular risk? (2) Are FRS risk estimates, which are based on data that are up to 45 years old, valid for a contemporary patient population seeking routine care? (3) Do the PCE make the FRS obsolete? (4) Does refitting the risk score using EHD improve the accuracy of risk estimates? Data were extracted from the EHD of 84 116 adults aged 40 to 79 years who received care at a large healthcare delivery and insurance organization between 2001 and 2011. We assessed calibration and discrimination for 4 risk scores: published versions of FRS and PCE and versions obtained by refitting models using a subset of the available EHD. The published FRS was well calibrated (calibration statistic K=9.1, miscalibration ranging from 0% to 17% across risk groups), but the PCE displayed modest evidence of miscalibration (calibration statistic K=43.7, miscalibration from 9% to 31%). Discrimination was similar in both models (C-index=0.740 for FRS, 0.747 for PCE). Refitting the published models using EHD did not substantially improve calibration or discrimination. We conclude that published cardiovascular risk models can be successfully applied to EHD to estimate cardiovascular risk; the FRS remains valid and is not obsolete; and model refitting does not meaningfully improve the accuracy of risk estimates. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Update of the Polar SWIFT model for polar stratospheric ozone loss (Polar SWIFT version 2)

Science.gov (United States)

Wohltmann, Ingo; Lehmann, Ralph; Rex, Markus

2017-07-01

The Polar SWIFT model is a fast scheme for calculating the chemistry of stratospheric ozone depletion in polar winter. It is intended for use in global climate models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) to enable the simulation of mutual interactions between the ozone layer and climate. To date, climate models often use prescribed ozone fields, since a full stratospheric chemistry scheme is computationally very expensive. Polar SWIFT is based on a set of coupled differential equations, which simulate the polar vortex-averaged mixing ratios of the key species involved in polar ozone depletion on a given vertical level. These species are O3, chemically active chlorine (ClOx), HCl, ClONO2 and HNO3. The only external input parameters that drive the model are the fraction of the polar vortex in sunlight and the fraction of the polar vortex below the temperatures necessary for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. Here, we present an update of the Polar SWIFT model introducing several improvements over the original model formulation. In particular, the model is now trained on vortex-averaged reaction rates of the ATLAS Chemistry and Transport Model, which enables a detailed look at individual processes and an independent validation of the different parameterizations contained in the differential equations. The training of the original Polar SWIFT model was based on fitting complete model runs to satellite observations and did not allow for this. A revised formulation of the system of differential equations is developed, which closely fits vortex-averaged reaction rates from ATLAS that represent the main chemical processes influencing ozone. In addition, a parameterization for the HNO3 change by denitrification is included. The rates of change of the concentrations of the chemical species of the Polar SWIFT model are purely chemical rates of change in the new version, whereas in the original Polar SWIFT model, they included a transport effect caused by the

Modelling of Radiological Health Risks from Gold Mine Tailings in Wonderfonteinspruit Catchment Area, South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manny Mathuthu

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Mining is one of the major causes of elevation of naturally-occurring radionuclide material (NORM concentrations on the Earth’s surface. The aim of this study was to evaluate the human risk associated with exposure to NORMs in soils from mine tailings around a gold mine. A broad-energy germanium detector was used to measure activity concentrations of these NORMs in 66 soil samples (56 from five mine tailings and 10 from the control area. The RESidual RADioactivity (RESRAD OFFSITE modeling program (version 3.1 was then used to estimate the radiation doses and the cancer morbidity risk of uranium-238 (238U, thorium-232 (232Th, and potassium-40 (40K for a hypothetical resident scenario. According to RESRAD prediction, the maximum total effective dose equivalent (TEDE during 100 years was found to be 0.0315 mSv/year at year 30, while the maximum total excess cancer morbidity risk for all the pathways was 3.04 × 10−5 at year 15. The US Environmental Protection Agency considers acceptable for regulatory purposes a cancer risk in the range of 10−6 to 10−4. Therefore, results obtained from RESRAD OFFSITE code has shown that the health risk from gold mine tailings is within acceptable levels according to international standards.

Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W

2014-08-15

A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks such as death due to other causes. For personalized medicine and patient counseling, it is necessary to check that the model is calibrated in the sense that it provides reliable predictions for all subjects. There are three often encountered practical problems when the aim is to display or test if a risk prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves for competing risks models based on jackknife pseudo-values that are combined with a nearest neighborhood smoother and a cross-validation approach to deal with all three problems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrogeochemical evaluation for Simpevarp model version 1.2. Preliminary site description of the Simpevarp area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laaksoharju, Marcus

2004-12-01

Siting studies for SKB's programme of deep geological disposal of nuclear fuel waste currently involves the investigation of two locations, Simpevarp and Forsmark, to determine their geological, hydrogeochemical and hydrogeological characteristics. Present work completed has resulted in Model version 1.2 which represents the second evaluation of the available Simpevarp groundwater analytical data collected up to April, 2004. The deepest fracture groundwater samples with sufficient analytical data reflected depths down to 1.7 km. Model version 1.2 focusses on geochemical and mixing processes affecting the groundwater composition in the uppermost part of the bedrock, down to repository levels, and eventually extending to 1000 m depth. The groundwater flow regimes at Laxemar/Simpevarp are considered local and extend down to depths of around 600-1000 m depending on local topography. The marked differences in the groundwater flow regimes between Laxemar and Simpevarp are reflected in the groundwater chemistry where four major hydrochemical groups of groundwaters (types A-D) have been identified: TYPE A: This type comprises dilute groundwaters ( 3 type present at shallow ( 300 m) levels at Simpevarp, and at even greater depths (approx. 1200 m) at Laxemar. At Simpevarp the groundwaters are mainly Na-Ca-Cl with increasingly enhanced Br and SO 4 with depth. At Laxemar they are mainly Ca-Na-Cl also with increasing enhancements of Br and SO 4 with depth. Main reactions involve ion exchange (Ca). At both sites a glacial component and a deep saline component are present. At Simpevarp the saline component may be potentially non marine and/or non-marine/old Littorina marine in origin; at Laxemar it is more likely to be non-marine in origin. TYPE D: This type comprises reducing highly saline groundwaters (> 20 000 mg/L Cl; to a maximum of ∼70 g/L TDS) and only has been identified at Laxemar at depths exceeding 1200 m. It is mainly Ca-Na-Cl with higher Br but lower SO 4 compared

Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), Version 1 (Version Superseded)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Please note, this dataset has been superseded by a newer version (see below). Users should not use this version except in rare cases (e.g., when reproducing previous...

Validation of the malaysian versions of parents and children health survey for asthma by using rasch-model.

Science.gov (United States)

Hussein, Maryam Se; Akram, Waqas; Mamat, Mohd Nor; Majeed, Abu Bakar Abdul; Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah Binti

2015-04-01

In recent years, health-related quality of life (HRQOL) has become an important outcome measure in epidemiologic studies and clinical trials. For patients with asthma there are many instruments but most of them have been developed in English. With the increase in research project, researchers working in other languages have two options; either to develop a new measure or to translate an already developed measure. Children Health Survey for Asthma is developed by American Academy of Paediatrics which has two versions one for the parents (CHSA) and the other for the child (CHSA-C). However, there is no Malay version of the CHSA or the CHSA-C. The aim of this study was to translate and determine the validity and reliability of the Malaysian versions of Parent and Children Health Survey for Asthma. Questionnaires were translated to Bahasa Malayu using previously established guidelines, data from 180 respondents (asthmatic children and their parent) were analysed using Rasch-Model; as, it is an approach that has been increasingly used in health field and also it explores the performance of each item rather than total set score. The internal consistency was high for the parent questionnaire (CHSA) (reliability score for persons = 0.88 and for items was 0.97), and good for child questionnaire (CHSA-C) (reliability score for persons = 0.83 and for items was 0.94). Also, this study shows that all items measure for both questionnaires (CHSA and CHSA-C) are fitted to Rasch-Model. This study produced questionnaires that are conceptually equivalent to the original, easy to understand for the children and their parents, and good in terms of internal consistency. Because of the questionnaire has two versions one for the child and the other for the parents, they could be used in clinical practice to measure the effect of asthma on the child and their families. This current research had translated two instruments to other language (BahasaMalayu) and evaluated their reliability and

Analgesia/anesthesia for external cephalic version.

Science.gov (United States)

Weiniger, Carolyn F

2013-06-01

Professional society guidelines recommend that women with breech presentation be delivered surgically due to a higher incidence of fetal risks compared with vaginal delivery. An alternative is attempted external cephalic version, which if successful, enables attempted vaginal delivery. Attitudes towards external cephalic version (ECV) will be considered in this review, along with pain relief methods and their impact on ECV success rates. Articles suggest that ECV is infrequently offered, due to both physician and patient factors. Success of ECV is higher in multiparous women, complete breech, posterior placenta, or smaller fetus. Preterm ECV performance does not increase vaginal delivery rates. Neuraxial techniques (spinal or epidural) significantly increase ECV success rates, as do moxibustion and hypnosis. Four reviews summarized studies considering ECV and neuraxial techniques. These reviews suggest that neuraxial techniques using high (surgical) doses of local anesthetic are efficacious compared with control groups not using anesthesia, whereas techniques using low-doses are not. Low-dose versus high-dose neuraxial analgesia/anesthesia has not been directly compared in a single study. Based on currently available data, the rate of cephalic presentation is not increased using neuraxial techniques, but vaginal delivery rates are higher. ECV appears to be a low-risk procedure. The logistics of routine ECV and provision of optimal neuraxial techniques for successful ECV require additional research. Safety aspects of neuraxial anesthesia for ECV require further investigation.

Lessons learned from a single institution's retrospective analysis of emergent cesarean delivery following external cephalic version with and without neuraxial anesthesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ainsworth, A; Sviggum, H P; Tolcher, M C; Weaver, A L; Holman, M A; Arendt, K W

2017-05-01

To evaluate the risk of emergent cesarean delivery with the use of neuraxial anesthesia for external cephalic version in a single practice. Randomized trials have shown increased external cephalic version success when neuraxial anesthesia is used, without additional risk. We hypothesized that in our actual clinical practice, outside the confines of randomized trials, neuraxial anesthesia could be associated with an increased risk of emergent cesarean delivery. This retrospective cohort study included all women who underwent external cephalic version at a single institution with and without neuraxial anesthesia. The primary outcome was the incidence of emergent cesarean delivery (defined as delivery within 4hours of version). Secondary outcomes were version success and ultimate mode of delivery. A total of 135 women underwent external cephalic version procedures; 58 with neuraxial anesthesia (43.0%) and 77 without (57.0%). Location of the procedure, tocolytic therapy, and gestational age were different between groups. An increased rate of emergent cesarean delivery was found in procedures with neuraxial anesthesia compared to procedures without (5/58 (8.6%) compared to 0/77 (0.0%); 95% CI for difference, 1.4 to 15.8%; P=0.013). In this single hospital's practice, patients who may be at higher risk of complications and have a lesser likelihood of success were provided NA for ECV. As a result, the use of neuraxial anesthesia for external cephalic version was associated with a higher rate of emergent cesarean delivery. Obstetric and anesthetic practices should evaluate their patient selection and procedure protocol for external cephalic version under neuraxial anesthesia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Information risk and security modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Zivic, Predrag

2005-03-01

This research paper presentation will feature current frameworks to addressing risk and security modeling and metrics. The paper will analyze technical level risk and security metrics of Common Criteria/ISO15408, Centre for Internet Security guidelines, NSA configuration guidelines and metrics used at this level. Information IT operational standards view on security metrics such as GMITS/ISO13335, ITIL/ITMS and architectural guidelines such as ISO7498-2 will be explained. Business process level standards such as ISO17799, COSO and CobiT will be presented with their control approach to security metrics. Top level, the maturity standards such as SSE-CMM/ISO21827, NSA Infosec Assessment and CobiT will be explored and reviewed. For each defined level of security metrics the research presentation will explore the appropriate usage of these standards. The paper will discuss standards approaches to conducting the risk and security metrics. The research findings will demonstrate the need for common baseline for both risk and security metrics. This paper will show the relation between the attribute based common baseline and corporate assets and controls for risk and security metrics. IT will be shown that such approach spans over all mentioned standards. The proposed approach 3D visual presentation and development of the Information Security Model will be analyzed and postulated. Presentation will clearly demonstrate the benefits of proposed attributes based approach and defined risk and security space for modeling and measuring.

The effect of bright lines in environmental risk communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, K.N.; Desvousges, W.H.; Smith, K.V.; Payne, J.

1993-01-01

Bright lines in environmental risk communication refer to the specific levels at which an environmental risk becomes a serious health threat and action should be taken to mitigate its effects. This study examined the effect of ''bright lines'' in risk communication by emphasizing the radon exposure threshold level of 4 picocuries per liter. Specifically, the authors developed a computer-assisted interview containing bright-line versions of risk information. The bright-line version contained a range of possible radon levels, the corresponding number of estimated lung cancer cases, the relative health risk from radon compared to other health risks, and the EPA guidelines for mitigating levels above 4 picocuries in the home. The non-bright line version was identical to the bright-line version, except it did not include the EPA's mitigation recommendations. Effect measures included respondents' change in perceived risk after reading their materials, intended testing behavior, and advice to their neighbor for a specified radon level either above or below the 4 picocury threshold level. This paper discusses broader policy implications for designing effective risk communication programs

ISM Approach to Model Offshore Outsourcing Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sunand Kumar

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In an effort to achieve a competitive advantage via cost reductions and improved market responsiveness, organizations are increasingly employing offshore outsourcing as a major component of their supply chain strategies. But as evident from literature number of risks such as Political risk, Risk due to cultural differences, Compliance and regulatory risk, Opportunistic risk and Organization structural risk, which adversely affect the performance of offshore outsourcing in a supply chain network. This also leads to dissatisfaction among different stake holders. The main objective of this paper is to identify and understand the mutual interaction among various risks which affect the performance of offshore outsourcing.  To this effect, authors have identified various risks through extant review of literature.  From this information, an integrated model using interpretive structural modelling (ISM for risks affecting offshore outsourcing is developed and the structural relationships between these risks are modeled.  Further, MICMAC analysis is done to analyze the driving power and dependency of risks which shall be helpful to managers to identify and classify important criterions and to reveal the direct and indirect effects of each criterion on offshore outsourcing. Results show that political risk and risk due to cultural differences are act as strong drivers.

School version of ESTE EU

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carny, P.; Suchon, D.; Chyly, M.; Smejkalova, E.; Fabova, V.

2008-01-01

ESTE EU is information system and software for radiological impacts assessment to the territory of the country in case of radiation accident inside/outside of the country .The program enables to model dispersion of radioactive clouds in small-scale and meso-scale. The system enables the user to estimate prediction of the source term (release to the atmosphere ) for any point of radiation/nuclear accident in Europe (for any point of the release, but especially for the sites of European power reactors ). The system enables to utilize results of real radiological monitoring in the process of source term estimation. Radiological impacts of release to the atmosphere are modelled and calculated across the Europe and displayed in the geographical information system (GIS). The school version of ESTE EU is intended for students of the universities which are interested in or could work in the field of emergency response, radiological and nuclear accidents, dispersion modelling, radiological impacts calculation and urgent or preventive protective measures implementation. The school version of ESTE EU is planned to be donated to specialized departments of faculties in Slovakia, Czech Republic, etc. System can be fully operated in Slovak, Czech or English language. (authors)

School version of ESTE EU

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carny, P.; Suchon, D.; Chyly, M.; Smejkalova, E.; Fabova, V.

2009-01-01

ESTE EU is information system and software for radiological impacts assessment to the territory of the country in case of radiation accident inside/outside of the country .The program enables to model dispersion of radioactive clouds in small-scale and meso-scale. The system enables the user to estimate prediction of the source term (release to the atmosphere ) for any point of radiation/nuclear accident in Europe (for any point of the release, but especially for the sites of European power reactors ). The system enables to utilize results of real radiological monitoring in the process of source term estimation. Radiological impacts of release to the atmosphere are modelled and calculated across the Europe and displayed in the geographical information system (GIS). The school version of ESTE EU is intended for students of the universities which are interested in or could work in the field of emergency response, radiological and nuclear accidents, dispersion modelling, radiological impacts calculation and urgent or preventive protective measures implementation. The school version of ESTE EU is planned to be donated to specialized departments of faculties in Slovakia, Czech Republic, etc. System can be fully operated in Slovak, Czech or English language. (authors)

The Mars Climate Database (MCD version 5.2)

Science.gov (United States)

Millour, E.; Forget, F.; Spiga, A.; Navarro, T.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Montabone, L.; Pottier, A.; Lefevre, F.; Montmessin, F.; Chaufray, J.-Y.; Lopez-Valverde, M. A.; Gonzalez-Galindo, F.; Lewis, S. R.; Read, P. L.; Huot, J.-P.; Desjean, M.-C.; MCD/GCM development Team

2015-10-01

The Mars Climate Database (MCD) is a database of meteorological fields derived from General Circulation Model (GCM) numerical simulations of the Martian atmosphere and validated using available observational data. The MCD includes complementary post-processing schemes such as high spatial resolution interpolation of environmental data and means of reconstructing the variability thereof. We have just completed (March 2015) the generation of a new version of the MCD, MCD version 5.2

HECTR Version 1.5 user's manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dingman, S.E.; Camp, A.L.; Wong, C.C.; King, D.B.; Gasser, R.D.

1986-04-01

This report describes the use and features of HECTR Version 1.5. HECTR is a relatively fast-running, lumped-volume containment analysis computer program that is most useful for performing parametric studies. The main purpose of HECTR is to analyze nuclear reactor accidents involving the transport and combustion of hydrogen, but HECTR can also function as an experiment analysis tool and can solve a limited set of other types of containment problems. New models added to HECTR Version 1.5 include fan coolers, containment leakage, continuous burning, and the capability to treat carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. Models for the ice condenser, sumps, and Mark III suppression pool were upgraded. HECTR is designed for flexibility and provides for user control of many important parameters, particularly those related to hydrogen combustion. Built-in correlations and default values of key parameters are also provided

Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

1988-03-01

This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

The harm argument against surrogacy revisited: two versions not to forget.

Science.gov (United States)

Agnafors, Marcus

2014-08-01

It has been a common claim that surrogacy is morally problematic since it involves harm to the child or the surrogate-the harm argument. Due to a growing body of empirical research, the harm argument has seen a decrease in popularity, as there seems to be little evidence of harmful consequences of surrogacy. In this article, two revised versions of the harm argument are developed. It is argued that the two suggested versions of the harm argument survive the current criticism against the standard harm argument. The first version argues that the child is harmed by being separated from the gestational mother. The second version directs attention to the fact that surrogacy involves great incentives to keep the gestational mother's level of maternal-fetal attachment low, which tend to increase the risk of harm to the child. While neither of the two arguments is conclusive regarding the moral status of surrogacy, both constitute important considerations that are often ignored.

A computationally efficient description of heterogeneous freezing: A simplified version of the Soccer ball model

Science.gov (United States)

Niedermeier, Dennis; Ervens, Barbara; Clauss, Tina; Voigtländer, Jens; Wex, Heike; Hartmann, Susan; Stratmann, Frank

2014-01-01

In a recent study, the Soccer ball model (SBM) was introduced for modeling and/or parameterizing heterogeneous ice nucleation processes. The model applies classical nucleation theory. It allows for a consistent description of both apparently singular and stochastic ice nucleation behavior, by distributing contact angles over the nucleation sites of a particle population assuming a Gaussian probability density function. The original SBM utilizes the Monte Carlo technique, which hampers its usage in atmospheric models, as fairly time-consuming calculations must be performed to obtain statistically significant results. Thus, we have developed a simplified and computationally more efficient version of the SBM. We successfully used the new SBM to parameterize experimental nucleation data of, e.g., bacterial ice nucleation. Both SBMs give identical results; however, the new model is computationally less expensive as confirmed by cloud parcel simulations. Therefore, it is a suitable tool for describing heterogeneous ice nucleation processes in atmospheric models.

VELMA Ecohydrological Model, Version 2.0 -- Analyzing Green Infrastructure Options for Enhancing Water Quality and Ecosystem Service Co-Benefits

Science.gov (United States)

This 2-page factsheet describes an enhanced version (2.0) of the VELMA eco-hydrological model. VELMA – Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments – has been redesigned to assist communities, land managers, policy makers and other decision makers in evaluataing the effecti...

Acute Myocardial Infarction Readmission Risk Prediction Models: A Systematic Review of Model Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Lauren N; Makam, Anil N; Darden, Douglas; Mayo, Helen; Das, Sandeep R; Halm, Ethan A; Nguyen, Oanh Kieu

2018-01-01

Hospitals are subject to federal financial penalties for excessive 30-day hospital readmissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Prospectively identifying patients hospitalized with AMI at high risk for readmission could help prevent 30-day readmissions by enabling targeted interventions. However, the performance of AMI-specific readmission risk prediction models is unknown. We systematically searched the published literature through March 2017 for studies of risk prediction models for 30-day hospital readmission among adults with AMI. We identified 11 studies of 18 unique risk prediction models across diverse settings primarily in the United States, of which 16 models were specific to AMI. The median overall observed all-cause 30-day readmission rate across studies was 16.3% (range, 10.6%-21.0%). Six models were based on administrative data; 4 on electronic health record data; 3 on clinical hospital data; and 5 on cardiac registry data. Models included 7 to 37 predictors, of which demographics, comorbidities, and utilization metrics were the most frequently included domains. Most models, including the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services AMI administrative model, had modest discrimination (median C statistic, 0.65; range, 0.53-0.79). Of the 16 reported AMI-specific models, only 8 models were assessed in a validation cohort, limiting generalizability. Observed risk-stratified readmission rates ranged from 3.0% among the lowest-risk individuals to 43.0% among the highest-risk individuals, suggesting good risk stratification across all models. Current AMI-specific readmission risk prediction models have modest predictive ability and uncertain generalizability given methodological limitations. No existing models provide actionable information in real time to enable early identification and risk-stratification of patients with AMI before hospital discharge, a functionality needed to optimize the potential effectiveness of readmission reduction interventions

Risk Modelling for Passages in Approach Channel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leszek Smolarek

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Methods of multivariate statistics, stochastic processes, and simulation methods are used to identify and assess the risk measures. This paper presents the use of generalized linear models and Markov models to study risks to ships along the approach channel. These models combined with simulation testing are used to determine the time required for continuous monitoring of endangered objects or period at which the level of risk should be verified.

Online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Quiquet

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the inclusion of an online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation within the model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM v1.1. We describe the following methodology to generate temperature and precipitation fields on a 40 km  ×  40 km Cartesian grid of the Northern Hemisphere from the T21 native atmospheric model grid. Our scheme is not grid specific and conserves energy and moisture in the same way as the original climate model. We show that we are able to generate a high-resolution field which presents a spatial variability in better agreement with the observations compared to the standard model. Although the large-scale model biases are not corrected, for selected model parameters, the downscaling can induce a better overall performance compared to the standard version on both the high-resolution grid and on the native grid. Foreseen applications of this new model feature include the improvement of ice sheet model coupling and high-resolution land surface models.

Extended-range prediction trials using the global cloud/cloud-system resolving model NICAM and its new ocean-coupled version NICOCO

Science.gov (United States)

Miyakawa, Tomoki

2017-04-01

The global cloud/cloud-system resolving model NICAM and its new fully-coupled version NICOCO is run on one of the worlds top-tier supercomputers, the K computer. NICOCO couples the full-3D ocean component COCO of the general circulation model MIROC using a general-purpose coupler Jcup. We carried out multiple MJO simulations using NICAM and the new ocean-coupled version NICOCO to examine their extended-range MJO prediction skills and the impact of ocean coupling. NICAM performs excellently in terms of MJO prediction, maintaining a valid skill up to 27 days after the model is initialized (Miyakawa et al 2014). As is the case in most global models, ocean coupling frees the model from being anchored by the observed SST and allows the model climate to drift away further from reality compared to the atmospheric version of the model. Thus, it is important to evaluate the model bias, and in an initial value problem such as the seasonal extended-range prediction, it is essential to be able to distinguish the actual signal from the early transition of the model from the observed state to its own climatology. Since NICAM is a highly resource-demanding model, evaluation and tuning of the model climatology (order of years) is challenging. Here we focus on the initial 100 days to estimate the early drift of the model, and subsequently evaluate MJO prediction skills of NICOCO. Results show that in the initial 100 days, NICOCO forms a La-Nina like SST bias compared to observation, with a warmer Maritime Continent warm pool and a cooler equatorial central Pacific. The enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent associated with this bias project on to the real-time multi-variate MJO indices (RMM, Wheeler and Hendon 2004), and contaminates the MJO skill score. However, the bias does not appear to demolish the MJO signal severely. The model maintains a valid MJO prediction skill up to nearly 4 weeks when evaluated after linearly removing the early drift component estimated from

Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W

2014-01-01

A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks...... prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves...

Users' manual for LEHGC: A Lagrangian-Eulerian Finite-Element Model of Hydrogeochemical Transport Through Saturated-Unsaturated Media. Version 1.1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeh, Gour-Tsyh

1995-11-01

The computer program LEHGC is a Hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian Finite-Element Model of HydroGeo-Chemical (LEHGC) Transport Through Saturated-Unsaturated Media. LEHGC iteratively solves two-dimensional transport and geochemical equilibrium equations and is a descendant of HYDROGEOCHEM, a strictly Eulerian finite-element reactive transport code. The hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian scheme improves on the Eulerian scheme by allowing larger time steps to be used in the advection-dominant transport calculations. This causes less numerical dispersion and alleviates the problem of calculated negative concentrations at sharp concentration fronts. The code also is more computationally efficient than the strictly Eulerian version. LEHGC is designed for generic application to reactive transport problems associated with contaminant transport in subsurface media. Input to the program includes the geometry of the system, the spatial distribution of finite elements and nodes, the properties of the media, the potential chemical reactions, and the initial and boundary conditions. Output includes the spatial distribution of chemical element concentrations as a function of time and space and the chemical speciation at user-specified nodes. LEHGC Version 1.1 is a modification of LEHGC Version 1.0. The modification includes: (1) devising a tracking algorithm with the computational effort proportional to N where N is the number of computational grid nodes rather than N 2 as in LEHGC Version 1.0, (2) including multiple adsorbing sites and multiple ion-exchange sites, (3) using four preconditioned conjugate gradient methods for the solution of matrix equations, and (4) providing a model for some features of solute transport by colloids

Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk

OpenAIRE

Dhar, Vasant; Lewis, Barry; Peters, James

1988-01-01

Within the academic and professional auditing communities, there has been growing concern about how to accurately assess the various risks associated with performing an audit. These risks are difficult to conceptualize in terms of numeric estimates. This article discusses the development of a prototype computational model (computer program) that assesses one of the major audit risks -- inherent risk. This program bases most of its inferencing activities on a qualitative model of a typical bus...

Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siu, N.

1989-01-01

This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

NETS - A NEURAL NETWORK DEVELOPMENT TOOL, VERSION 3.0 (MACHINE INDEPENDENT VERSION)

Science.gov (United States)

Baffes, P. T.

1994-01-01

NETS, A Tool for the Development and Evaluation of Neural Networks, provides a simulation of Neural Network algorithms plus an environment for developing such algorithms. Neural Networks are a class of systems modeled after the human brain. Artificial Neural Networks are formed from hundreds or thousands of simulated neurons, connected to each other in a manner similar to brain neurons. Problems which involve pattern matching readily fit the class of problems which NETS is designed to solve. NETS uses the back propagation learning method for all of the networks which it creates. The nodes of a network are usually grouped together into clumps called layers. Generally, a network will have an input layer through which the various environment stimuli are presented to the network, and an output layer for determining the network's response. The number of nodes in these two layers is usually tied to some features of the problem being solved. Other layers, which form intermediate stops between the input and output layers, are called hidden layers. NETS allows the user to customize the patterns of connections between layers of a network. NETS also provides features for saving the weight values of a network during the learning process, which allows for more precise control over the learning process. NETS is an interpreter. Its method of execution is the familiar "read-evaluate-print" loop found in interpreted languages such as BASIC and LISP. The user is presented with a prompt which is the simulator's way of asking for input. After a command is issued, NETS will attempt to evaluate the command, which may produce more prompts requesting specific information or an error if the command is not understood. The typical process involved when using NETS consists of translating the problem into a format which uses input/output pairs, designing a network configuration for the problem, and finally training the network with input/output pairs until an acceptable error is reached. NETS

Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

OpenAIRE

Wehrspohn, Uwe

2002-01-01

An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

Science.gov (United States)

Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

2013-04-01

Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

Lung cancer risk models from experimental animals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.

1988-03-01

The objective of this paper is to present analyses of data based on methods that adequately account for time-related factors and competiting risks, and that yield results that are expressed in a form comparable to results obtained from recent analyses of epidemiological studies of humans exposed to radon and radon daughters. These epidemiological analyses have modeled the hazard, or age-specific death rates, as a function of factors such as dose and dose rate, time from exposure, and time from cessation of exposure. The starting point for many of the analyses of human data has been the constant relative risk modeling which the age-specific death rates are assumed to be a function of cumulative dose, and the risks due to exposure are assumed to be proportional to the age-specific baseline death rates. However, departures from this initial model, such as dependence of risks on age at risk and/or time from exposure, have been investigated. These analyses have frequently been based on a non-parametric model that requires minimal assumptions regarding the baseline risks and their dependence on age

A NetCDF version of the two-dimensional energy balance model based on the full multigrid algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelin Zhuang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A NetCDF version of the two-dimensional energy balance model based on the full multigrid method in Fortran is introduced for both pedagogical and research purposes. Based on the land–sea–ice distribution, orbital elements, greenhouse gases concentration, and albedo, the code calculates the global seasonal surface temperature. A step-by-step guide with examples is provided for practice.

A NetCDF version of the two-dimensional energy balance model based on the full multigrid algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Kelin; North, Gerald R.; Stevens, Mark J.

A NetCDF version of the two-dimensional energy balance model based on the full multigrid method in Fortran is introduced for both pedagogical and research purposes. Based on the land-sea-ice distribution, orbital elements, greenhouse gases concentration, and albedo, the code calculates the global seasonal surface temperature. A step-by-step guide with examples is provided for practice.

FASTDART - A fast, accurate and friendly version of DART code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rest, Jeffrey; Taboada, Horacio

2000-01-01

A new enhanced, visual version of DART code is presented. DART is a mechanistic model based code, developed for the performance calculation and assessment of aluminum dispersion fuel. Major issues of this new version are the development of a new, time saving calculation routine, able to be run on PC, a friendly visual input interface and a plotting facility. This version, available for silicide and U-Mo fuels, adds to the classical accuracy of DART models for fuel performance prediction, a faster execution and visual interfaces. It is part of a collaboration agreement between ANL and CNEA in the area of Low Enriched Uranium Advanced Fuels, held by the Implementation Arrangement for Technical Exchange and Cooperation in the Area of Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy. (author)

Risk-oriented analysis of the German prototype fast breeder reactor SNR-300: off-site accident consequence model and results of the study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayer, A.; Ehrhardt, J.

1984-01-01

Accident off-site consequence calculations and risk assessments performed for the ''risk oriented analysis'' of the German prototype fast breeder reactor SNR-300 were performed with a modified version of the off-site accident consequence model UFOMOD. The modifications mainly relate to the deposition and resuspension processes, the ingestion model, and the dose factors. Consequence calculations at the site of Kalkar on the Rhine River were performed for 115 weather sequences in 36 wind directions. They were based on seven release categories evaluated for the SNR-300 with two different fueling strategies: plutonium from Magnox reactors only and plutonium from light water reactors and Magnox reactors. In parallel, the corresponding frequencies of occurrence are determined. The following results are generated: 1. complementary cumulative frequency distribution functions for collective fatalities and collective doses 2. expected values of the collective fatalities and collective doses as well as distance-dependent expected values of individual fatality 3. contributions of the different exposure pathways to fatalities with respect to the various organs. For comparison with the risk of a PWR-1300, calculations for the PWR-1300 of the ''German Risk Study'' were repeated with the same modified consequence model. Comparison shows that smaller risks result for the SNR-300. However, the confidence interval bandwidths obtained for the frequencies of the release categories for the SNR-300 are larger than those of the PWR-1300

Finite element analysis of the Girkmann problem using the modern hp-version and the classical h-version

KAUST Repository

Niemi, Antti; Babuška, Ivo M.; Pitkä ranta, Juhani; Demkowicz, Leszek F.

2011-01-01

elasticity theory and (2) by using a dimensionally reduced shell-ring model. In the first approach the problem is solved with a fully automatic hp-adaptive finite element solver whereas the classical h-version of the finite element method is used

User's Manual for LEWICE Version 3.2

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, William

2008-01-01

A research project is underway at NASA Glenn to produce a computer code which can accurately predict ice growth under a wide range of meteorological conditions for any aircraft surface. This report will present a description of the code inputs and outputs from version 3.2 of this software, which is called LEWICE. This version differs from release 2.0 due to the addition of advanced thermal analysis capabilities for de-icing and anti-icing applications using electrothermal heaters or bleed air applications, the addition of automated Navier-Stokes analysis, an empirical model for supercooled large droplets (SLD) and a pneumatic boot option. An extensive effort was also undertaken to compare the results against the database of electrothermal results which have been generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) as was performed for the validation effort for version 2.0. This report will primarily describe the features of the software related to the use of the program. Appendix A has been included to list some of the inner workings of the software or the physical models used. This information is also available in the form of several unpublished documents internal to NASA. This report is intended as a replacement for all previous user manuals of LEWICE. In addition to describing the changes and improvements made for this version, information from previous manuals may be duplicated so that the user will not need to consult previous manuals to use this software.

A comparative review of radiation-induced cancer risk models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Seung Hee; Kim, Ju Youl [FNC Technology Co., Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Han, Seok Jung [Risk and Environmental Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2017-06-15

With the need for a domestic level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), it is essential to develop a Korea-specific code. Health effect assessments study radiation-induced impacts; in particular, long-term health effects are evaluated in terms of cancer risk. The objective of this study was to analyze the latest cancer risk models developed by foreign organizations and to compare the methodology of how they were developed. This paper also provides suggestions regarding the development of Korean cancer risk models. A review of cancer risk models was carried out targeting the latest models: the NUREG model (1993), the BEIR VII model (2006), the UNSCEAR model (2006), the ICRP 103 model (2007), and the U.S. EPA model (2011). The methodology of how each model was developed is explained, and the cancer sites, dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) and mathematical models are also described in the sections presenting differences among the models. The NUREG model was developed by assuming that the risk was proportional to the risk coefficient and dose, while the BEIR VII, UNSCEAR, ICRP, and U.S. EPA models were derived from epidemiological data, principally from Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The risk coefficient does not consider individual characteristics, as the values were calculated in terms of population-averaged cancer risk per unit dose. However, the models derived by epidemiological data are a function of sex, exposure age, and attained age of the exposed individual. Moreover, the methodologies can be used to apply the latest epidemiological data. Therefore, methodologies using epidemiological data should be considered first for developing a Korean cancer risk model, and the cancer sites and DDREF should also be determined based on Korea-specific studies. This review can be used as a basis for developing a Korean cancer risk model in the future.

Neuraxial analgesia to increase the success rate of external cephalic version: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Di Tommaso, Mariarosaria; Mele, Michele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-09-01

External cephalic version is a medical procedure in which the fetus is externally manipulated to assume the cephalic presentation. The use of neuraxial analgesia for facilitating the version has been evaluated in several randomized clinical trials, but its potential effects are still controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of neuraxial analgesia as an intervention to increase the success rate of external cephalic version. Searches were performed in electronic databases with the use of a combination of text words related to external cephalic version and neuraxial analgesia from the inception of each database to January 2016. We included all randomized clinical trials of women, with a gestational age ≥36 weeks and breech or transverse fetal presentation, undergoing external cephalic version who were randomized to neuraxial analgesia, including spinal, epidural, or combined spinal-epidural techniques (ie, intervention group) or to a control group (either intravenous analgesia or no treatment). The primary outcome was the successful external cephalic version. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean differences with a 95% confidence interval. Nine randomized clinical trials (934 women) were included in this review. Women who received neuraxial analgesia had a significantly higher incidence of successful external cephalic version (58.4% vs 43.1%; relative risk, 1.44, 95% confidence interval, 1.27-1.64), cephalic presentation in labor (55.1% vs 40.2%; relative risk, 1.37, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.73), and vaginal delivery (54.0% vs 44.6%; relative risk, 1.21, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.41) compared with those who did not. Women who were randomized to the intervention group also had a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (46.0% vs 55.3%; relative risk, 0.83, 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.97), maternal discomfort (1.2% vs 9.3%; relative risk, 0.12, 95% confidence interval, 0

Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

2016-12-01

As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Community WRF-Hydro Modeling System Version 4 Updates: Merging Toward Capabilities of the National Water Model

Science.gov (United States)

McAllister, M.; Gochis, D.; Dugger, A. L.; Karsten, L. R.; McCreight, J. L.; Pan, L.; Rafieeinasab, A.; Read, L. K.; Sampson, K. M.; Yu, W.

2017-12-01

The community WRF-Hydro modeling system is publicly available and provides researchers and operational forecasters a flexible and extensible capability for performing multi-scale, multi-physics options for hydrologic modeling that can be run independent or fully-interactive with the WRF atmospheric model. The core WRF-Hydro physics model contains very high-resolution descriptions of terrestrial hydrologic process representations such as land-atmosphere exchanges of energy and moisture, snowpack evolution, infiltration, terrain routing, channel routing, basic reservoir representation and hydrologic data assimilation. Complementing the core physics components of WRF-Hydro are an ecosystem of pre- and post-processing tools that facilitate the preparation of terrain and meteorological input data, an open-source hydrologic model evaluation toolset (Rwrfhydro), hydrologic data assimilation capabilities with DART and advanced model visualization capabilities. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), through collaborative support from the National Science Foundation and other funding partners, provides community support for the entire WRF-Hydro system through a variety of mechanisms. This presentation summarizes the enhanced user support capabilities that are being developed for the community WRF-Hydro modeling system. These products and services include a new website, open-source code repositories, documentation and user guides, test cases, online training materials, live, hands-on training sessions, an email list serve, and individual user support via email through a new help desk ticketing system. The WRF-Hydro modeling system and supporting tools which now include re-gridding scripts and model calibration have recently been updated to Version 4 and are merging toward capabilities of the National Water Model.

Recent development of BOA version 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deshon, J.; Hussey, D.; Westacott, J.; Young, M.; Secker, J.; Epperson, K.; McGurk, J.; Henshaw, J.

2010-01-01

BOA is the EPRI code developed to help understand material transport issues in PWR systems. In particular, BOA was developed to investigate the problem of crud induced power shifts (CIPS) or axial offset anomalies (AOA) that are related to crud accumulation on fuel clad and the subsequent uptake of boron within this crud. Over the last few years significant developments of BOA have taken place; these include new models for release and deposition of soluble and particulate material as well as new models for boron capture in the crud. The new version of BOA (version 3), as well as predicting the extent of AOA a plant might expect during a cycle, also predicts soluble and particulate Ni/Fe levels in the coolant, end of cycle Ni shut-down releases and the relative amounts of Ni/Fe within the fuel crud. The model is being validated against plant data and this paper briefly discusses the recent developments, the fundamental scientific basis for these changes and some of the validation studies. (author)

An Improved Version of TOPAZ 3D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krasnykh, Anatoly

2003-01-01

An improved version of the TOPAZ 3D gun code is presented as a powerful tool for beam optics simulation. In contrast to the previous version of TOPAZ 3D, the geometry of the device under test is introduced into TOPAZ 3D directly from a CAD program, such as Solid Edge or AutoCAD. In order to have this new feature, an interface was developed, using the GiD software package as a meshing code. The article describes this method with two models to illustrate the results

Trigonometric version of quantum–classical duality in integrable systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Beketov

2016-02-01

Full Text Available We extend the quantum–classical duality to the trigonometric (hyperbolic case. The duality establishes an explicit relationship between the classical N-body trigonometric Ruijsenaars–Schneider model and the inhomogeneous twisted XXZ spin chain on N sites. Similarly to the rational version, the spin chain data fixes a certain Lagrangian submanifold in the phase space of the classical integrable system. The inhomogeneity parameters are equal to the coordinates of particles while the velocities of classical particles are proportional to the eigenvalues of the spin chain Hamiltonians (residues of the properly normalized transfer matrix. In the rational version of the duality, the action variables of the Ruijsenaars–Schneider model are equal to the twist parameters with some multiplicities defined by quantum (occupation numbers. In contrast to the rational version, in the trigonometric case there is a splitting of the spectrum of action variables (eigenvalues of the classical Lax matrix. The limit corresponding to the classical Calogero–Sutherland system and quantum trigonometric Gaudin model is also described as well as the XX limit to free fermions.

Trigonometric version of quantum–classical duality in integrable systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beketov, M., E-mail: beketov@phystech.edu [MIPT, Inststitutskii per. 9, 141700, Dolgoprudny, Moscow region (Russian Federation); Liashyk, A., E-mail: a.liashyk@gmail.com [National Research University Higher School of Economics, Myasnitskaya str. 20, 101000, Moscow (Russian Federation); BITP, Metrolohichna str. 14-b, 03680, Kiev (Ukraine); Zabrodin, A., E-mail: zabrodin@itep.ru [National Research University Higher School of Economics, Myasnitskaya str. 20, 101000, Moscow (Russian Federation); Institute of Biochemical Physics, Kosygina str. 4, 119991, Moscow (Russian Federation); ITEP, Bolshaya Cheremushkinskaya str. 25, 117218, Moscow (Russian Federation); Zotov, A., E-mail: zotov@mi.ras.ru [Steklov Mathematical Institute, RAS, Gubkina str. 8, 119991, Moscow (Russian Federation); ITEP, Bolshaya Cheremushkinskaya str. 25, 117218, Moscow (Russian Federation); MIPT, Inststitutskii per. 9, 141700, Dolgoprudny, Moscow region (Russian Federation)

2016-02-15

We extend the quantum–classical duality to the trigonometric (hyperbolic) case. The duality establishes an explicit relationship between the classical N-body trigonometric Ruijsenaars–Schneider model and the inhomogeneous twisted XXZ spin chain on N sites. Similarly to the rational version, the spin chain data fixes a certain Lagrangian submanifold in the phase space of the classical integrable system. The inhomogeneity parameters are equal to the coordinates of particles while the velocities of classical particles are proportional to the eigenvalues of the spin chain Hamiltonians (residues of the properly normalized transfer matrix). In the rational version of the duality, the action variables of the Ruijsenaars–Schneider model are equal to the twist parameters with some multiplicities defined by quantum (occupation) numbers. In contrast to the rational version, in the trigonometric case there is a splitting of the spectrum of action variables (eigenvalues of the classical Lax matrix). The limit corresponding to the classical Calogero–Sutherland system and quantum trigonometric Gaudin model is also described as well as the XX limit to free fermions.

Risk Management Technologies With Logic and Probabilistic Models

CERN Document Server

Solozhentsev, E D

2012-01-01

This book presents intellectual, innovative, information technologies (I3-technologies) based on logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models. The technologies presented here consider such models for structurally complex systems and processes with logical links and with random events in economics and technology.  The volume describes the following components of risk management technologies: LP-calculus; classes of LP-models of risk and efficiency; procedures for different classes; special software for different classes; examples of applications; methods for the estimation of probabilities of events based on expert information. Also described are a variety of training courses in these topics. The classes of risk models treated here are: LP-modeling, LP-classification, LP-efficiency, and LP-forecasting. Particular attention is paid to LP-models of risk of failure to resolve difficult economic and technical problems. Amongst the  discussed  procedures of I3-technologies  are the construction of  LP-models,...

Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2) (External Review Draft)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) for a 30-day public comment period. The ICLUS version 2 (v2) modeling tool furthered land change mod...

A new version of the event generator Sibyll

CERN Document Server

Riehn, Felix; Fedynitch, Anatoli; Gaisser, Thomas K.; Stanev, Todor

2016-01-01

The event generator Sibyll can be used for the simulation of hadronic multiparticle production up to the highest cosmic ray energies. It is optimized for providing an economic description of those aspects of the expected hadronic final states that are needed for the calculation of air showers and atmospheric lepton fluxes. New measurements from fixed target and collider experiments, in particular those at LHC, allow us to test the predictive power of the model version 2.1, which was released more than 10 years ago, and also to identify shortcomings. Based on a detailed comparison of the model predictions with the new data we revisit model assumptions and approximations to obtain an improved version of the interaction model. In addition a phenomenological model for the production of charm particles is implemented as needed for the calculation of prompt lepton fluxes in the energy range of the astrophysical neutrinos recently discovered by IceCube. After giving an overview of the new ideas implemented in Sibyll...

A semi-quantitative model for risk appreciation and risk weighing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bos, Peter M.J.; Boon, Polly E.; van der Voet, Hilko

2009-01-01

Risk managers need detailed information on (1) the type of effect, (2) the size (severity) of the expected effect(s) and (3) the fraction of the population at risk to decide on well-balanced risk reduction measures. A previously developed integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model...... provides quantitative information on these three parameters. A semi-quantitative tool is presented that combines information on these parameters into easy-readable charts that will facilitate risk evaluations of exposure situations and decisions on risk reduction measures. This tool is based on a concept...... detailed information on the estimated health impact in a given exposure situation. These graphs will facilitate the discussions on appropriate risk reduction measures to be taken....

Reliability and Construct Validity of Two Versions of Chalder Fatigue Scale among the General Population in Mainland China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng-Juan Jing

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The 14-item Chalder Fatigue Scale (CFS is widely used, while the 11-item version is seldom to be found in current research in mainland China. The objectives of the present study is to compare the reliability and construct validity between these two versions and to confirm which may be better for the mainland Chinese setting. Based on a cross-sectional health survey with a constructive questionnaire, 1887 individuals aged 18 years or above were selected. Socio-demographic, health-related, gynecological data were collected, and 11-item and 14-item Chalder Fatigue Scale (CFS were used to assess fatigue. Confirmatory factor analysis and exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM were performed to test the fit of models of the two versions. Confirmatory factor analysis of the two versions of CFS did not support the two-factor theorized models. In addition, a three-factor ESEM model of the 11-item version, but not the 14-item version, showed better factor structure and fitness than the other models examined. Both the versions had good internal consistency reliability and a satisfactory internal consistency (Ω = 0.78–0.96, omega coefficient indicates the internal consistency reliability was obtained from the optimal model. This study provided evidence for satisfactory reliability and structural validity for the three-factor model of the 11-item version, which was proven to be superior to the 14-item version for this data.

Performance of advanced self-shielding models in DRAGON Version4 on analysis of a high conversion light water reactor lattice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karthikeyan, Ramamoorthy; Hebert, Alain

2008-01-01

A high conversion light water reactor lattice has been analysed using the code DRAGON Version4. This analysis was performed to test the performance of the advanced self-shielding models incorporated in DRAGON Version4. The self-shielding models are broadly classified into two groups - 'equivalence in dilution' and 'subgroup approach'. Under the 'equivalence in dilution' approach we have analysed the generalized Stamm'ler model with and without Nordheim model and Riemann integration. These models have been analysed also using the Livolant-Jeanpierre normalization. Under the 'subgroup approach', we have analysed Statistical self-shielding model based on physical probability tables and Ribon extended self-shielding model based on mathematical probability tables. This analysis will help in understanding the performance of advanced self-shielding models for a lattice that is tight and has a large fraction of fissions happening in the resonance region. The nuclear data for the analysis was generated in-house. NJOY99.90 was used for generating libraries in DRAGLIB format for analysis using DRAGON and A Compact ENDF libraries for analysis using MCNP5. The evaluated datafiles were chosen based on the recommendations of the IAEA Co-ordinated Research Project on the WIMS Library Update Project. The reference solution for the problem was obtained using Monte Carlo code MCNP5. It was found that the Ribon extended self-shielding model based on mathematical probability tables using correlation model performed better than all other models

A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

Science.gov (United States)

Datta, Koushik; Fraser, Douglas R.

2009-01-01

The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

PVWatts Version 5 Manual

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dobos, A. P.

2014-09-01

The NREL PVWatts calculator is a web application developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) that estimates the electricity production of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on a few simple inputs. PVWatts combines a number of sub-models to predict overall system performance, and makes includes several built-in parameters that are hidden from the user. This technical reference describes the sub-models, documents assumptions and hidden parameters, and explains the sequence of calculations that yield the final system performance estimate. This reference is applicable to the significantly revised version of PVWatts released by NREL in 2014.

Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

2011-12-01

In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

New developments in program STANSOL version 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gray, W.H.

1981-10-01

STANSOL is a computer program that applied a solution for the mechanical displacement, stress, and strain in rotationally-transversely isotropic, homogeneous, axisymmetric solenoids. Careful application of the solution permits the complex mechanical behavior of multilayered, nonhomogeneous solenoids to be examined in which the loads may vary arbitrarily from layer to layer. Loads applied to the solenoid model by program STANSOL may consist of differential temperature, winding preload, internal and/or external surface pressure, and electromagnetic Lorentz body forces. STANSOL version 3, the latest update to the original version of the computer program, also permits structural analysis of solenoid magnets in which frictionless interlayer gaps may open or close. This paper presents the new theory coded into version 3 of the STANSOL program, as well as the new input data format and graphical output display of the resulting analysis

Discrete competing risk model with application to modeling bus-motor failure data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, R.

2010-01-01

Failure data are often modeled using continuous distributions. However, a discrete distribution can be appropriate for modeling interval or grouped data. When failure data come from a complex system, a simple discrete model can be inappropriate for modeling such data. This paper presents two types of discrete distributions. One is formed by exponentiating an underlying distribution, and the other is a two-fold competing risk model. The paper focuses on two special distributions: (a) exponentiated Poisson distribution and (b) competing risk model involving a geometric distribution and an exponentiated Poisson distribution. The competing risk model has a decreasing-followed-by-unimodal mass function and a bathtub-shaped failure rate. Five classical data sets on bus-motor failures can be simultaneously and appropriately fitted by a general 5-parameter competing risk model with the parameters being functions of the number of successive failures. The lifetime and aging characteristics of the fitted distribution are analyzed.

Risk matrix model for rotating equipment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wassan Rano Khan

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Different industries have various residual risk levels for their rotating equipment. Accordingly the occurrence rate of the failures and associated failure consequences categories are different. Thus, a generalized risk matrix model is developed in this study which can fit various available risk matrix standards. This generalized risk matrix will be helpful to develop new risk matrix, to fit the required risk assessment scenario for rotating equipment. Power generation system was taken as case study. It was observed that eight subsystems were under risk. Only vibration monitor system was under high risk category, while remaining seven subsystems were under serious and medium risk categories.

MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

MODIFIED N.R.C. VERSION OF THE U.S.G.S. SOLUTE TRANSPORT MODEL. VOLUME 2. INTERACTIVE PREPROCESSOR PROGRAM

Science.gov (United States)

The methods described in the report can be used with the modified N.R.C. version of the U.S.G.S. Solute Transport Model to predict the concentration of chemical parameters in a contaminant plume. The two volume report contains program documentation and user's manual. The program ...

Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Version 3.0 Mathematical Description.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Samberson, Jonell Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shettigar, Subhasini [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Welch, Kimberly M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Dean A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-03-01

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options. The results of this model allow those considering these options to understand the complexity tradeoffs between proposed warhead options. The core idea of SCORE is to divide a warhead option into a well- defined set of scope elements and then estimate the complexity of each scope element against a well understood reference system. The uncertainty associated with estimates can also be captured. A weighted summation of the relative complexity of each scope element is used to determine the total complexity of the proposed warhead option or portions of the warhead option (i.e., a National Work Breakdown Structure code). The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA- 12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC), that has provided the data elicitation, integration and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

Update of the Polar SWIFT model for polar stratospheric ozone loss (Polar SWIFT version 2

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Wohltmann

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The Polar SWIFT model is a fast scheme for calculating the chemistry of stratospheric ozone depletion in polar winter. It is intended for use in global climate models (GCMs and Earth system models (ESMs to enable the simulation of mutual interactions between the ozone layer and climate. To date, climate models often use prescribed ozone fields, since a full stratospheric chemistry scheme is computationally very expensive. Polar SWIFT is based on a set of coupled differential equations, which simulate the polar vortex-averaged mixing ratios of the key species involved in polar ozone depletion on a given vertical level. These species are O3, chemically active chlorine (ClOx, HCl, ClONO2 and HNO3. The only external input parameters that drive the model are the fraction of the polar vortex in sunlight and the fraction of the polar vortex below the temperatures necessary for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. Here, we present an update of the Polar SWIFT model introducing several improvements over the original model formulation. In particular, the model is now trained on vortex-averaged reaction rates of the ATLAS Chemistry and Transport Model, which enables a detailed look at individual processes and an independent validation of the different parameterizations contained in the differential equations. The training of the original Polar SWIFT model was based on fitting complete model runs to satellite observations and did not allow for this. A revised formulation of the system of differential equations is developed, which closely fits vortex-averaged reaction rates from ATLAS that represent the main chemical processes influencing ozone. In addition, a parameterization for the HNO3 change by denitrification is included. The rates of change of the concentrations of the chemical species of the Polar SWIFT model are purely chemical rates of change in the new version, whereas in the original Polar SWIFT model, they included a transport effect

Modeling intelligent adversaries for terrorism risk assessment: some necessary conditions for adversary models.

Science.gov (United States)

Guikema, Seth

2012-07-01

Intelligent adversary modeling has become increasingly important for risk analysis, and a number of different approaches have been proposed for incorporating intelligent adversaries in risk analysis models. However, these approaches are based on a range of often-implicit assumptions about the desirable properties of intelligent adversary models. This "Perspective" paper aims to further risk analysis for situations involving intelligent adversaries by fostering a discussion of the desirable properties for these models. A set of four basic necessary conditions for intelligent adversary models is proposed and discussed. These are: (1) behavioral accuracy to the degree possible, (2) computational tractability to support decision making, (3) explicit consideration of uncertainty, and (4) ability to gain confidence in the model. It is hoped that these suggested necessary conditions foster discussion about the goals and assumptions underlying intelligent adversary modeling in risk analysis. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Competing Risks and Multistate Models with R

CERN Document Server

Beyersmann, Jan; Schumacher, Martin

2012-01-01

This book covers competing risks and multistate models, sometimes summarized as event history analysis. These models generalize the analysis of time to a single event (survival analysis) to analysing the timing of distinct terminal events (competing risks) and possible intermediate events (multistate models). Both R and multistate methods are promoted with a focus on nonparametric methods.

Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

Science.gov (United States)

Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

2009-01-01

The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

The Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) Level 3 Package: Qualitative Models, Version 1, Release 1.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaouiya, Claudine; Keating, Sarah M; Berenguier, Duncan; Naldi, Aurélien; Thieffry, Denis; van Iersel, Martijn P; Le Novère, Nicolas; Helikar, Tomáš

2015-09-04

Quantitative methods for modelling biological networks require an in-depth knowledge of the biochemical reactions and their stoichiometric and kinetic parameters. In many practical cases, this knowledge is missing. This has led to the development of several qualitative modelling methods using information such as, for example, gene expression data coming from functional genomic experiments. The SBML Level 3 Version 1 Core specification does not provide a mechanism for explicitly encoding qualitative models, but it does provide a mechanism for SBML packages to extend the Core specification and add additional syntactical constructs. The SBML Qualitative Models package for SBML Level 3 adds features so that qualitative models can be directly and explicitly encoded. The approach taken in this package is essentially based on the definition of regulatory or influence graphs. The SBML Qualitative Models package defines the structure and syntax necessary to describe qualitative models that associate discrete levels of activities with entity pools and the transitions between states that describe the processes involved. This is particularly suited to logical models (Boolean or multi-valued) and some classes of Petri net models can be encoded with the approach.

Land-total and Ocean-total Precipitation and Evaporation from a Community Atmosphere Model version 5 Perturbed Parameter Ensemble

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Covey, Curt [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lucas, Donald D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Trenberth, Kevin E. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

2016-03-02

This document presents the large scale water budget statistics of a perturbed input-parameter ensemble of atmospheric model runs. The model is Version 5.1.02 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). These runs are the “C-Ensemble” described by Qian et al., “Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of Precipitation at Global and Local Scales in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5” (Journal of Advances in Modeling the Earth System, 2015). As noted by Qian et al., the simulations are “AMIP type” with temperature and sea ice boundary conditions chosen to match surface observations for the five year period 2000-2004. There are 1100 ensemble members in addition to one run with default inputparameter values.

Evaluation of a Swedish version of the Strengthening Families Programme.

Science.gov (United States)

Skärstrand, Eva; Sundell, Knut; Andréasson, Sven

2014-08-01

Adolescents' alcohol consumption is a public health concern in Sweden as well as in many other countries. Underage drinking is associated with increased risks of alcohol-related injuries, risky sexual behaviours and dependence later in life. Different strategies have been used in the effort to prevent this behaviour, and to postpone the onset of alcohol. The Strengthening Families Programme 10-14 (SFP 10-14) from the USA has been highlighted as one of the more effective prevention programmes. The aim of the present article was to evaluate the effectiveness of a culturally adapted Swedish version of the SFP 10-14. This was a cluster randomized controlled trial including 587 sixth-grade students (age 12) and their parents in 19 elementary schools in Stockholm. Schools were randomly assigned to either control (9 schools, 216 students) or to the family skills training intervention (10 schools, 371 students). The SFP Swedish version consisted of two parts with seven and five sessions, respectively, held separately for youths and parents except two joint family sessions. Measures of students' self-reported episodes of drunkenness, smoking, illicit drug use and other norm-breaking behaviours were collected at baseline (March 2003) and at three subsequent yearly surveys. Data were analysed using multilevel models with an intention-to-treat approach. No preventive effects were found for smoking, alcohol and illicit drug use and other norm-breaking behaviours, nor did moderators affect the outcome. The Swedish version of the SFP 10-14 was not effective in preventing youths' substance use in a Swedish context. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile to Reflect Temporal Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Dufouil, Carole; Beiser, Alexa; McLure, Leslie A; Wolf, Philip A; Tzourio, Christophe; Howard, Virginia J; Westwood, Andrew J; Himali, Jayandra J; Sullivan, Lisa; Aparicio, Hugo J; Kelly-Hayes, Margaret; Ritchie, Karen; Kase, Carlos S; Pikula, Aleksandra; Romero, Jose R; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Samieri, Cécilia; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Chêne, Genevieve; Howard, George; Seshadri, Sudha

2017-03-21

Age-adjusted stroke incidence has decreased over the past 50 years, likely as a result of changes in the prevalence and impact of various stroke risk factors. An updated version of the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP) might better predict current risks in the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) and other cohorts. We compared the accuracy of the standard (old) and of a revised (new) version of the FSRP in predicting the risk of all-stroke and ischemic stroke and validated this new FSRP in 2 external cohorts, the 3C (3 Cities) and REGARDS (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) studies. We computed the old FSRP as originally described and a new model that used the most recent epoch-specific risk factor prevalence and hazard ratios for individuals ≥55 years of age and for the subsample ≥65 years of age (to match the age range in REGARDS and 3C studies, respectively) and compared the efficacy of these models in predicting 5- and 10-year stroke risks. The new FSRP was a better predictor of current stroke risks in all 3 samples than the old FSRP (calibration χ 2 of new/old FSRP: in men: 64.0/12.1, 59.4/30.6, and 20.7/12.5; in women: 42.5/4.1, 115.4/90.3, and 9.8/6.5 in FHS, REGARDS, and 3C, respectively). In the REGARDS, the new FSRP was a better predictor among whites compared with blacks. A more contemporaneous, new FSRP better predicts current risks in 3 large community samples and could serve as the basis for examining geographic and racial differences in stroke risk and the incremental diagnostic utility of novel stroke risk factors. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Psychometric properties of the Thai version of the work ability index (Thai WAI).

Science.gov (United States)

Kaewboonchoo, Orawan; Ratanasiripong, Paul

2015-01-01

The purpose of this research was to develop and test the psychometric properties of the Thai version of the Work Ability Index (WAI). Forward translation and back-translation of the WAI were performed by seven bilingual professionals to ensure that the Thai WAI was culturally relevant and conceptually accurate. To ensure generalizability of the Thai WAI, a sample of 2,744 Thai workers from 19 different enterprises in five regions of Thailand completed the Thai version of the WAI along with the General Health Questionnaire. The 19 enterprises were from the following industries: canned food, snack food, cooking oil, footwear, pharmaceutical, ceramics, toy, steel, petrochemical, and auto parts. The results from exploratory factor analysis supported a 3-factor model, accounting for 53.49% of the total variance. The results also provided evidence for adequate test-retest reliability and internal consistency of the Thai WAI. The internal consistency of the Thai WAI was found to be slightly low due to the newness of the concept of work ability, which is not a common term used in the Thai language; therefore, explanation of the meaning of work ability is needed to increase understanding of workers. By providing early recognition of workers' health risks as well as risks of early termination, the WAI can help Thai human resources managers respond better to the needs of workers and be proactive in their efforts to retain workers in their organizations. Occupational health professionals could also utilize the WAI to evaluate the work ability of Thai workers in order to help organizations recognize early signs of their workers' health risks and possible early terminations and respond appropriately.

Why operational risk modelling creates inverse incentives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Doff, R.

2015-01-01

Operational risk modelling has become commonplace in large international banks and is gaining popularity in the insurance industry as well. This is partly due to financial regulation (Basel II, Solvency II). This article argues that operational risk modelling is fundamentally flawed, despite efforts

Operational risk quantification and modelling within Romanian insurance industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tudor Răzvan

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This paper aims at covering and describing the shortcomings of various models used to quantify and model the operational risk within insurance industry with a particular focus on Romanian specific regulation: Norm 6/2015 concerning the operational risk issued by IT systems. While most of the local insurers are focusing on implementing the standard model to compute the Operational Risk solvency capital required, the local regulator has issued a local norm that requires to identify and assess the IT based operational risks from an ISO 27001 perspective. The challenges raised by the correlations assumed in the Standard model are substantially increased by this new regulation that requires only the identification and quantification of the IT operational risks. The solvency capital requirement stipulated by the implementation of Solvency II doesn’t recommend a model or formula on how to integrate the newly identified risks in the Operational Risk capital requirements. In this context we are going to assess the academic and practitioner’s understanding in what concerns: The Frequency-Severity approach, Bayesian estimation techniques, Scenario Analysis and Risk Accounting based on risk units, and how they could support the modelling of operational risk that are IT based. Developing an internal model only for the operational risk capital requirement proved to be, so far, costly and not necessarily beneficial for the local insurers. As the IT component will play a key role in the future of the insurance industry, the result of this analysis will provide a specific approach in operational risk modelling that can be implemented in the context of Solvency II, in a particular situation when (internal or external operational risk databases are scarce or not available.

Including investment risk in large-scale power market models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard; Meibom, P.

2003-01-01

Long-term energy market models can be used to examine investments in production technologies, however, with market liberalisation it is crucial that such models include investment risks and investor behaviour. This paper analyses how the effect of investment risk on production technology selection...... can be included in large-scale partial equilibrium models of the power market. The analyses are divided into a part about risk measures appropriate for power market investors and a more technical part about the combination of a risk-adjustment model and a partial-equilibrium model. To illustrate...... the analyses quantitatively, a framework based on an iterative interaction between the equilibrium model and a separate risk-adjustment module was constructed. To illustrate the features of the proposed modelling approach we examined how uncertainty in demand and variable costs affects the optimal choice...

Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS). Version 2.0: Program user's guide. Final Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pelaccio, D.G.; Scheil, C.M.; Petrosky, L.

1993-03-01

This Program User's Guide discusses the Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine system design features and capabilities modeled in the Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS): Version 2.0 program (referred to as NESS throughout the remainder of this document), as well as its operation. NESS was upgraded to include many new modeling capabilities not available in the original version delivered to NASA LeRC in Dec. 1991, NESS's new features include the following: (1) an improved input format; (2) an advanced solid-core NERVA-type reactor system model (ENABLER 2); (3) a bleed-cycle engine system option; (4) an axial-turbopump design option; (5) an automated pump-out turbopump assembly sizing option; (6) an off-design gas generator engine cycle design option; (7) updated hydrogen properties; (8) an improved output formnd (9) personal computer operation capability. Sample design cases are presented in the user's guide that demonstrate many of the new features associated with this upgraded version of NESS, as well as design modeling features associated with the original version of NESS

Simion 3D Version 6.0 User`s Manual

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dahl, D.A.

1995-11-01

The original SIMION was an electrostatic lens analysis and design program developed by D.C. McGilvery at Latrobe University, Bundoora Victoria, Australia, 1977. SIMION for the PC, developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, shares little more than its name with the original McGilvery version. INEL`s fifth major SIMION release, version 6.0, represents a quantum improvement over previous versions. This C based program can model complex problems using an ion optics workbench that can hold up to 200 2D and/or 3D electrostatic/magnetic potential arrays. Arrays can have up to 10,000,000 points. SIMION 3D`s 32 bit virtual Graphics User Interface provides a highly interactive advanced user environment. All potential arrays are visualized as 3D objects that the user can cut away to inspect ion trajectories and potential energy surfaces. User programs have been greatly extended in versatility and power. A new geometry file option supports the definition of highly complex array geometry. Extensive algorithm modifications have dramatically improved this version`s computational speed and accuracy.

[The methods of assessment of health risk from exposure to radon and radon daughters].

Science.gov (United States)

Demin, V F; Zhukovskiy, M V; Kiselev, S M

2014-01-01

The critical analysis of existing models of the relationship dose-effect (RDE) for radon exposure on human health has been performed. Conclusion about the necessity and possibility of improving these models has been made. A new improved version ofthe RDE has been developed. A technique for assessing the human health risk of exposure to radon, including the method for estimating of exposure doses of radon, an improved model of RDE, proper methodology risk assessment has been described. Methodology is proposed for the use in the territory of Russia.

IGT-Open: An open-source, computerized version of the Iowa Gambling Task.

Science.gov (United States)

Dancy, Christopher L; Ritter, Frank E

2017-06-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is commonly used to understand the processes involved in decision-making. Though the task was originally run without a computer, using a computerized version of the task has become typical. These computerized versions of the IGT are useful, because they can make the task more standardized across studies and allow for the task to be used in environments where a physical version of the task may be difficult or impossible to use (e.g., while collecting brain imaging data). Though these computerized versions of the IGT have been useful for experimentation, having multiple software implementations of the task could present reliability issues. We present an open-source software version of the Iowa Gambling Task (called IGT-Open) that allows for millisecond visual presentation accuracy and is freely available to be used and modified. This software has been used to collect data from human subjects and also has been used to run model-based simulations with computational process models developed to run in the ACT-R architecture.

Competing Risks Copula Models for Unemployment Duration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lo, Simon M. S.; Stephan, Gesine; Wilke, Ralf

2017-01-01

The copula graphic estimator (CGE) for competing risks models has received little attention in empirical research, despite having been developed into a comprehensive research method. In this paper, we bridge the gap between theoretical developments and applied research by considering a general...... class of competing risks copula models, which nests popular models such as the Cox proportional hazards model, the semiparametric multivariate mixed proportional hazards model (MMPHM), and the CGE as special cases. Analyzing the effects of a German Hartz reform on unemployment duration, we illustrate...

The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Smolka, A. J.

2015-12-01

Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

LIFETIME LUNG CANCER RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INDOOR RADON EXPOSURE BASED ON VARIOUS RADON RISK MODELS FOR CANADIAN POPULATION.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jing

2017-04-01

This study calculates and compares the lifetime lung cancer risks associated with indoor radon exposure based on well-known risk models in the literature; two risk models are from joint studies among miners and the other three models were developed from pooling studies on residential radon exposure from China, Europe and North America respectively. The aim of this article is to make clear that the various models are mathematical descriptions of epidemiologically observed real risks in different environmental settings. The risk from exposure to indoor radon is real and it is normal that variations could exist among different risk models even when they were applied to the same dataset. The results show that lifetime risk estimates vary significantly between the various risk models considered here: the model based on the European residential data provides the lowest risk estimates, while models based on the European miners and Chinese residential pooling with complete dosimetry give the highest values. The lifetime risk estimates based on the EPA/BEIR-VI model lie within this range and agree reasonably well with the averages of risk estimates from the five risk models considered in this study. © Crown copyright 2016.

Concordance for prognostic models with competing risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wolbers, Marcel; Blanche, Paul; Koller, Michael T

2014-01-01

The concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and relate i...

Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Coiera, Enrico; Wang, Ying; Magrabi, Farah; Concha, Oscar Perez; Gallego, Blanca; Runciman, William

2014-05-21

Current prognostic models factor in patient and disease specific variables but do not consider cumulative risks of hospitalization over time. We developed risk models of the likelihood of death associated with cumulative exposure to hospitalization, based on time-varying risks of hospitalization over any given day, as well as day of the week. Model performance was evaluated alone, and in combination with simple disease-specific models. Patients admitted between 2000 and 2006 from 501 public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia were used for training and 2007 data for evaluation. The impact of hospital care delivered over different days of the week and or times of the day was modeled by separating hospitalization risk into 21 separate time periods (morning, day, night across the days of the week). Three models were developed to predict death up to 7-days post-discharge: 1/a simple background risk model using age, gender; 2/a time-varying risk model for exposure to hospitalization (admission time, days in hospital); 3/disease specific models (Charlson co-morbidity index, DRG). Combining these three generated a full model. Models were evaluated by accuracy, AUC, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. There was a clear diurnal rhythm to hospital mortality in the data set, peaking in the evening, as well as the well-known 'weekend-effect' where mortality peaks with weekend admissions. Individual models had modest performance on the test data set (AUC 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79 respectively). The combined model which included time-varying risk however yielded an average AUC of 0.92. This model performed best for stays up to 7-days (93% of admissions), peaking at days 3 to 5 (AUC 0.94). Risks of hospitalization vary not just with the day of the week but also time of the day, and can be used to make predictions about the cumulative risk of death associated with an individual's hospitalization. Combining disease specific models with such time varying- estimates appears to

Thermal site descriptive model. A strategy for the model development during site investigations - version 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Back, Paer-Erik; Sundberg, Jan

2007-09-01

This report presents a strategy for describing, predicting and visualising the thermal aspects of the site descriptive model. The strategy is an updated version of an earlier strategy applied in all SDM versions during the initial site investigation phase at the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas. The previous methodology for thermal modelling did not take the spatial correlation fully into account during simulation. The result was that the variability of thermal conductivity in the rock mass was not sufficiently well described. Experience from earlier thermal SDMs indicated that development of the methodology was required in order describe the spatial distribution of thermal conductivity in the rock mass in a sufficiently reliable way, taking both variability within rock types and between rock types into account. A good description of the thermal conductivity distribution is especially important for the lower tail. This tail is important for the design of a repository because it affects the canister spacing. The presented approach is developed to be used for final SDM regarding thermal properties, primarily thermal conductivity. Specific objectives for the strategy of thermal stochastic modelling are: Description: statistical description of the thermal conductivity of a rock domain. Prediction: prediction of thermal conductivity in a specific rock volume. Visualisation: visualisation of the spatial distribution of thermal conductivity. The thermal site descriptive model should include the temperature distribution and thermal properties of the rock mass. The temperature is the result of the thermal processes in the repository area. Determination of thermal transport properties can be made using different methods, such as laboratory investigations, field measurements, modelling from mineralogical composition and distribution, modelling from density logging and modelling from temperature logging. The different types of data represent different scales, which has to be

Thermal site descriptive model. A strategy for the model development during site investigations - version 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Back, Paer-Erik; Sundberg, Jan [Geo Innova AB (Sweden)

2007-09-15

This report presents a strategy for describing, predicting and visualising the thermal aspects of the site descriptive model. The strategy is an updated version of an earlier strategy applied in all SDM versions during the initial site investigation phase at the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas. The previous methodology for thermal modelling did not take the spatial correlation fully into account during simulation. The result was that the variability of thermal conductivity in the rock mass was not sufficiently well described. Experience from earlier thermal SDMs indicated that development of the methodology was required in order describe the spatial distribution of thermal conductivity in the rock mass in a sufficiently reliable way, taking both variability within rock types and between rock types into account. A good description of the thermal conductivity distribution is especially important for the lower tail. This tail is important for the design of a repository because it affects the canister spacing. The presented approach is developed to be used for final SDM regarding thermal properties, primarily thermal conductivity. Specific objectives for the strategy of thermal stochastic modelling are: Description: statistical description of the thermal conductivity of a rock domain. Prediction: prediction of thermal conductivity in a specific rock volume. Visualisation: visualisation of the spatial distribution of thermal conductivity. The thermal site descriptive model should include the temperature distribution and thermal properties of the rock mass. The temperature is the result of the thermal processes in the repository area. Determination of thermal transport properties can be made using different methods, such as laboratory investigations, field measurements, modelling from mineralogical composition and distribution, modelling from density logging and modelling from temperature logging. The different types of data represent different scales, which has to be

Determinants of pain perception after external cephalic version in pregnant women

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Truijens, Sophie; Zalm, van der Marieke; Pop, V.J.M.; Kuppens, S.M.I.

2014-01-01

A considerable proportion of pregnant women with a fetus in breech position refuses external cephalic version (ECV), with fear of pain as important barrier. As a consequence, they are at high risk for caesarean section at term. The current study investigated determinants of pain perception during

Determinants of pain perception after external cephalic version in pregnant women

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Truijens, Sophie E. M.; van der Zalm, Marieke; Pop, Victor J. M.; Kuppens, S.M.

Objective A considerable proportion of pregnant women with a fetus in breech position refuses external cephalic version (ECV), with fear of pain as important barrier. As a consequence, they are at high risk for caesarean section at term. The current study investigated determinants of pain perception

NASA Risk Management Handbook. Version 1.0

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Benjamin, Allan; Everett, Christopher; Maggio, Gaspare; Stamatelatos, Michael; Youngblood, Robert; Guarro, Sergio; Rutledge, Peter; Sherrard, James; Smith, Curtis;

Risk assessment and consequence modeling of BLEVE explosion wave phenomenon of LPG spherical tank in a refinery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Kamaei

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Although human industrial activities are as a part of efforts to achieve greater prosperity, the risks related to these activities are also expanding. Hazard identification and risk assessment in the oil and gas industries are essential to reduce the frequency and severity of accidents and minimize damage to people and property before their occurrence. The aim of this study was to evaluate the liquefied and pressurized petroleum gas spherical tanks in a refinery and assessing the risks of Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE phenomenon. Material and Method: In this study, the risks of BLEVE phenomenon were assessed, using the Bowtie method. The consequences of explosion wave phenomenon and the resulting wave quantity and its impacts on the neighboring machineries and equipment were analyzed. PHAST software version 6.54 has been used for modeling the BLEVE phenomenon. Result: In this evaluation, generally five causes and two consequences were identified for BLEVE phenomenon. In order to reduce its consequences, forty-three controlling measures were introduced to prevent the BLEVE phenomenon and the impacts of 31 control measures were identified. According to the conducted analysis, it was found that the spherical tank blast wave caused by LPG can lead to explosion of close located tanks which can create a chain of explosions. Conclusion: The results of modeling and risk assessment can be used to identify the BLEVE phenomenon causes and its effects on nearby people and equipment. Based on these results, preventive controlling measures can be implemented and also be determined by adopting proper design and layout, margin of safety for personnel, equipment and accessories.

Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer variation range assessment based on various radon risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Jing

2017-01-01

To address public concerns regarding radon risk and variations in risk estimates based on various risk models available in the literature, lifetime lung cancer risks were calculated with five well-known risk models using more recent Canadian vital statistics (5-year averages from 2008 to 2012). Variations in population risk estimation among various models were assessed. The results showed that the Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer can vary from 5.0 to 17% for men and 5.1 to 18% for women based on different radon risk models. Averaged over the estimates from various risk models with better radon dosimetry, 13% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian males and 14% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian females were attributable to long-term indoor radon exposure. (authors)

Evaluation of a new CNRM-CM6 model version for seasonal climate predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Volpi, Danila; Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, Lauriane; Dorel, Laurant; Guérémy, Jean-François; Déqué, Michel

2017-04-01

This work presents the quality assessment of a new version of the Météo-France coupled climate prediction system, which has been developed in the EU COPERNICUS Climate Change Services framework to carry out seasonal forecast. The system is based on the CNRM-CM6 model, with Arpege-Surfex 6.2.2 as atmosphere/land component and Nemo 3.2 as ocean component, which has directly embedded the sea-ice component Gelato 6.0. In order to have a robust diagnostic, the experiment is composed by 60 ensemble members generated with stochastic dynamic perturbations. The experiment has been performed over a 37-year re-forecast period from 1979 to 2015, with two start dates per year, respectively in May 1st and November 1st. The evaluation of the predictive skill of the model is shown under two perspectives: on the one hand, the ability of the model to faithfully respond to positive or negative ENSO, NAO and QBO events, independently of the predictability of these events. Such assessment is carried out through a composite analysis, and shows that the model succeeds in reproducing the main patterns for 2-meter temperature, precipitation and geopotential height at 500 hPa during the winter season. On the other hand, the model predictive skill of the same events (positive and negative ENSO, NAO and QBO) is evaluated.

Statistical model of fractures and deformation zones. Preliminary site description, Laxemar subarea, version 1.2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hermanson, Jan; Forssberg, Ola [Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Fox, Aaron; La Pointe, Paul [Golder Associates Inc., Redmond, WA (United States)

2005-10-15

The goal of this summary report is to document the data sources, software tools, experimental methods, assumptions, and model parameters in the discrete-fracture network (DFN) model for the local model volume in Laxemar, version 1.2. The model parameters presented herein are intended for use by other project modeling teams. Individual modeling teams may elect to simplify or use only a portion of the DFN model, depending on their needs. This model is not intended to be a flow model or a mechanical model; as such, only the geometrical characterization is presented. The derivations of the hydraulic or mechanical properties of the fractures or their subsurface connectivities are not within the scope of this report. This model represents analyses carried out on particular data sets. If additional data are obtained, or values for existing data are changed or excluded, the conclusions reached in this report, and the parameter values calculated, may change as well. The model volume is divided into two subareas; one located on the Simpevarp peninsula adjacent to the power plant (Simpevarp), and one further to the west (Laxemar). The DFN parameters described in this report were determined by analysis of data collected within the local model volume. As such, the final DFN model is only valid within this local model volume and the modeling subareas (Laxemar and Simpevarp) within.

Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, X.

2017-12-01

Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

Item and response-category functioning of the Persian version of the KIDSCREEN-27: Rasch partial credit model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)